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Sample records for sequential logit model

  1. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  2. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  3. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  4. Spatial age-length key modelling using continuation ratio logits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper W.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2012-01-01

    -called age-length key (ALK) is then used to obtain the age distribution. Regional differences in ALKs are not uncommon, but stratification is often problematic due to a small number of samples. Here, we combine generalized additive modelling with continuation ratio logits to model the probability of age...

  5. STAS and Logit Modeling of Advertising and Promotion Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Yssing Hansen, Lotte; Grønholdt, Lars

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases using the British single-source database Adlab. STAS and logit modeling are the two measures studied. Results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which, they give...

  6. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  7. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    It has long been believed that the decomposition of the total effect of one variable on another into direct and indirect effects, while feasible in linear models, is not possible in non-linear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this paper we present a new and simple method...... average partial effects, as defined by Wooldridge (2002). We present the method graphically and illustrate it using the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988...

  8. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  9. Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinay, B

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

  10. Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

    The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

  11. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

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    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  12. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  13. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  14. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  15. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

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    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  16. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  17. DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT

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    Shanty Oktavilia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model

  18. Analysis of RIA standard curve by log-logistic and cubic log-logit models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Hideo; Kuroda, Akira; Yatabe, Tami; Inaba, Taeko; Chiba, Kazuo

    1981-01-01

    In order to improve goodness-of-fit in RIA standard analysis, programs for computing log-logistic and cubic log-logit were written in BASIC using personal computer P-6060 (Olivetti). Iterative least square method of Taylor series was applied for non-linear estimation of logistic and log-logistic. Hear ''log-logistic'' represents Y = (a - d)/(1 + (log(X)/c)sup(b)) + d As weights either 1, 1/var(Y) or 1/σ 2 were used in logistic or log-logistic and either Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 , Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /var(Y), or Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /σ 2 were used in quadratic or cubic log-logit. The term var(Y) represents squares of pure error and σ 2 represents estimated variance calculated using a following equation log(σ 2 + 1) = log(A) + J log(y). As indicators for goodness-of-fit, MSL/S sub(e)sup(2), CMD% and WRV (see text) were used. Better regression was obtained in case of alpha-fetoprotein by log-logistic than by logistic. Cortisol standard curve was much better fitted with cubic log-logit than quadratic log-logit. Predicted precision of AFP standard curve was below 5% in log-logistic in stead of 8% in logistic analysis. Predicted precision obtained using cubic log-logit was about five times lower than that with quadratic log-logit. Importance of selecting good models in RIA data processing was stressed in conjunction with intrinsic precision of radioimmunoassay system indicated by predicted precision. (author)

  19. Another Look at the Method of Y-Standardization in Logit and Probit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper takes another look at the derivation of the method of Y-standardization used in sociological analysis involving comparisons of coefficients across logit or probit models. It shows that the method can be derived under less restrictive assumptions than hitherto suggested. Rather than...

  20. Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppel, Karen

    1993-01-01

    A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

  1. Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...

  2. Mixed logit model of intended residential mobility in renovated historical blocks in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, W.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Li, H.; Feng, T.

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 8 historical blocks in China, the influence of socialdemographic characteristics and residential satisfaction on intended residentialmobility is analysed. The results of a mixed logit model indicate that higher residential satisfaction will lead to a lower intention to move house,

  3. Study on Emission Measurement of Vehicle on Road Based on Binomial Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aly, Sumarni Hamid; Selintung, Mary; Ramli, Muhammad Isran; Sumi, Tomonori

    2011-01-01

    This research attempts to evaluate emission measurement of on road vehicle. In this regard, the research develops failure probability model of vehicle emission test for passenger car which utilize binomial logit model. The model focuses on failure of CO and HC emission test for gasoline cars category and Opacity emission test for diesel-fuel cars category as dependent variables, while vehicle age, engine size, brand and type of the cars as independent variables. In order to imp...

  4. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  5. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

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    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  6. Analysis of Internet Usage Intensity in Iraq: An Ordered Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Almas Heshmati; Firas H. Al-Hammadany; Ashraf Bany-Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Intensity of Internet use is significantly influenced by government policies, people’s levels of income, education, employment and general development and economic conditions. Iraq has very low Internet usage levels compared to the region and the world. This study uses an ordered logit model to analyse the intensity of Internet use in Iraq. The results showed that economic reasons (internet cost and income level) were key cause for low level usage intensity rates. About 68% of the population ...

  7. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

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    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  8. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  9. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  10. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  11. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of Poisson, logit, and linear models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in Norwegian Red cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Gianola, D; Bates, D; Weigel, K A; Heringstad, B

    2009-02-01

    Clinical mastitis is typically coded as presence/absence during some period of exposure, and records are analyzed with linear or binary data models. Because presence includes cows with multiple episodes, there is loss of information when a count is treated as a binary response. The Poisson model is designed for counting random variables, and although it is used extensively in epidemiology of mastitis, it has rarely been used for studying the genetics of mastitis. Many models have been proposed for genetic analysis of mastitis, but they have not been formally compared. The main goal of this study was to compare linear (Gaussian), Bernoulli (with logit link), and Poisson models for the purpose of genetic evaluation of sires for mastitis in dairy cattle. The response variables were clinical mastitis (CM; 0, 1) and number of CM cases (NCM; 0, 1, 2, ..). Data consisted of records on 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Red sires distributed over 5,286 herds. Predictive ability of models was assessed via a 3-fold cross-validation using mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end-point. Between-sire variance estimates for NCM were 0.065 in Poisson and 0.007 in the linear model. For CM the between-sire variance was 0.093 in logit and 0.003 in the linear model. The ratio between herd and sire variances for the models with NCM response was 4.6 and 3.5 for Poisson and linear, respectively, and for model for CM was 3.7 in both logit and linear models. The MSEP for all cows was similar. However, within healthy animals, MSEP was 0.085 (Poisson), 0.090 (linear for NCM), 0.053 (logit), and 0.056 (linear for CM). For mastitic animals the MSEP values were 1.206 (Poisson), 1.185 (linear for NCM response), 1.333 (logit), and 1.319 (linear for CM response). The models for count variables had a better performance when predicting diseased animals and also had a similar performance between them. Logit and linear models for CM had better predictive ability for healthy

  13. Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

    2018-04-01

    Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

  14. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  15. A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

  16. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that represents the selection among 5 emergency lateral and speed control maneuvers (i.e., "no avoidance maneuvers," "braking," "steering," "braking and steering," and "other maneuvers) while accommodating correlations across maneuvers and heteroscedasticity. Data for the analysis were retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009 by considering drivers for which crash avoidance maneuvers are known. The results show that (1) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent greatly influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (2) women and elderly have a relatively lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance maneuvers, (3) drowsiness and fatigue have a greater negative marginal effect on the tendency to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers than alcohol and drug consumption, (4) difficult road conditions increase the propensity to perform crash avoidance maneuvers, and (5) visual obstruction and artificial illumination decrease the probability to carry out crash avoidance maneuvers. The results emphasize the need for public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving style for senior drivers and warning about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing

  17. Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

    2010-12-01

    This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the

  18. Comparing Johnson’s SBB, Weibull and Logit-Logistic bivariate distributions for modeling tree diameters and heights using copulas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardil Forradellas, A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Oliveres, J.; Castellnou, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of study: In this study we compare the accuracy of three bivariate distributions: Johnson’s SBB, Weibull-2P and LL-2P functions for characterizing the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. Area of study: North-West of Spain. Material and methods: Diameter and height measurements of 128 plots of pure and even-aged Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) stands located in the North-west of Spain were considered in the present study. The SBB bivariate distribution was obtained from SB marginal distributions using a Normal Copula based on a four-parameter logistic transformation. The Plackett Copula was used to obtain the bivariate models from the Weibull and Logit-logistic univariate marginal distributions. The negative logarithm of the maximum likelihood function was used to compare the results and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the related samples of these logarithms calculated for each sample plot and each distribution. Main results: The best results were obtained by using the Plackett copula and the best marginal distribution was the Logit-logistic. Research highlights: The copulas used in this study have shown a good performance for modeling the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. They could be easily extended for modelling multivariate distributions involving other tree variables, such as tree volume or biomass. (Author)

  19. Analyzing Korean consumers’ latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Hyunsuk; Lee, Chul-Yong

    2017-01-01

    Generally, consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from. Since different energy sources exert varying effects on society, it is necessary to analyze consumers’ latent preference for electricity generation sources. The present study estimates Korean consumers’ marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment. The results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources. Additionally, Korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32–11%, and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4–32%. - Highlights: • We derive an electricity mix reflecting Korean consumers’ latent preferences. • We use the discrete choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian logit model. • The danger posed by the generation source is the most important attribute. • The consumers wish to increase the renewable energy proportion from 4.3% to 32.8%. • Korea's cost-oriented energy supply policy and consumers’ preference differ markedly.

  20. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  1. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  3. Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

    2017-12-01

    Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

  4. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  5. A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A.S.; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specific......We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting...... of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy...

  6. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Revealing additional preference heterogeneity with an extended random parameter logit model: the case of extra virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Yangui

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Methods that account for preference heterogeneity have received a significant amount of attention in recent literature. Most of them have focused on preference heterogeneity around the mean of the random parameters, which has been specified as a function of socio-demographic characteristics. This paper aims at analyzing consumers’ preferences towards extra-virgin olive oil in Catalonia using a methodological framework with two novelties over past studies: 1 it accounts for both preference heterogeneity around the mean and the variance; and 2 it considers both socio-demographic characteristics of consumers as well as their attitudinal factors. Estimated coefficients and moments of willingness to pay (WTP distributions are compared with those obtained from alternative Random Parameter Logit (RPL models. Results suggest that the proposed framework increases the goodness-of-fit and provides more useful insights for policy analysis. The most important attributes affecting consumers’ preferences towards extra virgin olive oil are the price and the product’s origin. The consumers perceive the organic olive oil attribute negatively, as they think that it is not worth paying a premium for a product that is healthy in nature.

  8. A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

  9. Radiation effects on cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors, 1950-72. Comparison of some statistical models and analysis based on the additive logit model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otake, M [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Science

    1976-12-01

    Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) x c(dose) x 2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during the 22year period from 1 Oct. 1950 to 31 Dec. 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with an increase in dose. The dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature or a log linear model, particularly if the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad were set arbitrarily at 600 rad, since the average dose in the 200+ rad group would then change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were 9 year old or less at the time of the bomb and who were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk for all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i.e., the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons.

  10. An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

    2015-05-15

    The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  12. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  13. Sequential neural models with stochastic layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...

  14. Para Krizleri Öngörüsünde Logit Model ve Sinyal Yaklaşımının Değeri: Türkiye Tecrübesi

    OpenAIRE

    Kaya, Vedat; Yilmaz, Omer

    2007-01-01

    Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On the other hand, the signal approach aims at determining any possible currency crisis in advance, following some variables showing unusual change over the periods of economic fluctuation and thus it pr...

  15. Sequential models for coarsening and missingness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gill, R.D.; Robins, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    In a companion paper we described what intuitively would seem to be the most general possible way to generate Coarsening at Random mechanisms a sequential procedure called randomized monotone coarsening Counterexamples showed that CAR mechanisms exist which cannot be represented in this way Here we

  16. Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

    2009-03-01

    We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

  17. Sequential and Parallel Attack Tree Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Guck, Dennis; Kumar, Rajesh; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Koornneef, Floor; van Gulijk, Coen

    The intricacy of socio-technical systems requires a careful planning and utilisation of security resources to ensure uninterrupted, secure and reliable services. Even though many studies have been conducted to understand and model the behaviour of a potential attacker, the detection of crucial

  18. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    OpenAIRE

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam; Peter A. Beling; George A. Overstreet

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a seq...

  19. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  20. Formal modelling and verification of interlocking systems featuring sequential release

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vu, Linh Hong; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we present a method and an associated toolchain for the formal verification of the new Danish railway interlocking systems that are compatible with the European Train Control System (ETCS) Level 2. We have made a generic and reconfigurable model of the system behaviour and generic...... safety properties. This model accommodates sequential release - a feature in the new Danish interlocking systems. To verify the safety of an interlocking system, first a domain-specific description of interlocking configuration data is constructed and validated. Then the generic model and safety...

  1. A continuous-time neural model for sequential action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachergis, George; Wyatte, Dean; O'Reilly, Randall C; de Kleijn, Roy; Hommel, Bernhard

    2014-11-05

    Action selection, planning and execution are continuous processes that evolve over time, responding to perceptual feedback as well as evolving top-down constraints. Existing models of routine sequential action (e.g. coffee- or pancake-making) generally fall into one of two classes: hierarchical models that include hand-built task representations, or heterarchical models that must learn to represent hierarchy via temporal context, but thus far lack goal-orientedness. We present a biologically motivated model of the latter class that, because it is situated in the Leabra neural architecture, affords an opportunity to include both unsupervised and goal-directed learning mechanisms. Moreover, we embed this neurocomputational model in the theoretical framework of the theory of event coding (TEC), which posits that actions and perceptions share a common representation with bidirectional associations between the two. Thus, in this view, not only does perception select actions (along with task context), but actions are also used to generate perceptions (i.e. intended effects). We propose a neural model that implements TEC to carry out sequential action control in hierarchically structured tasks such as coffee-making. Unlike traditional feedforward discrete-time neural network models, which use static percepts to generate static outputs, our biological model accepts continuous-time inputs and likewise generates non-stationary outputs, making short-timescale dynamic predictions. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling sequential context effects in diagnostic interpretation of screening mammograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamudun, Folami; Paulus, Paige; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Tourassi, Georgia

    2018-07-01

    Prior research has shown that physicians' medical decisions can be influenced by sequential context, particularly in cases where successive stimuli exhibit similar characteristics when analyzing medical images. This type of systematic error is known to psychophysicists as sequential context effect as it indicates that judgments are influenced by features of and decisions about the preceding case in the sequence of examined cases, rather than being based solely on the peculiarities unique to the present case. We determine if radiologists experience some form of context bias, using screening mammography as the use case. To this end, we explore correlations between previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions and current decisions. We hypothesize that a radiologist's visual search pattern and diagnostic decisions in previous cases are predictive of the radiologist's current diagnostic decisions. To test our hypothesis, we tasked 10 radiologists of varied experience to conduct blind reviews of 100 four-view screening mammograms. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions were collected from each radiologist under conditions mimicking clinical practice. Perceptual behavior was quantified using the fractal dimension of gaze scanpath, which was computed using the Minkowski-Bouligand box-counting method. To test the effect of previous behavior and decisions, we conducted a multifactor fixed-effects ANOVA. Further, to examine the predictive value of previous perceptual behavior and decisions, we trained and evaluated a predictive model for radiologists' current diagnostic decisions. ANOVA tests showed that previous visual behavior, characterized by fractal analysis, previous diagnostic decisions, and image characteristics of previous cases are significant predictors of current diagnostic decisions. Additionally, predictive modeling of diagnostic decisions showed an overall improvement in prediction error when the model is trained on additional information about

  3. Sequential Logic Model Deciphers Dynamic Transcriptional Control of Gene Expressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Zhen Xuan; Wong, Sum Thai; Arjunan, Satya Nanda Vel; Piras, Vincent; Tomita, Masaru; Selvarajoo, Kumar; Giuliani, Alessandro; Tsuchiya, Masa

    2007-01-01

    Background Cellular signaling involves a sequence of events from ligand binding to membrane receptors through transcription factors activation and the induction of mRNA expression. The transcriptional-regulatory system plays a pivotal role in the control of gene expression. A novel computational approach to the study of gene regulation circuits is presented here. Methodology Based on the concept of finite state machine, which provides a discrete view of gene regulation, a novel sequential logic model (SLM) is developed to decipher control mechanisms of dynamic transcriptional regulation of gene expressions. The SLM technique is also used to systematically analyze the dynamic function of transcriptional inputs, the dependency and cooperativity, such as synergy effect, among the binding sites with respect to when, how much and how fast the gene of interest is expressed. Principal Findings SLM is verified by a set of well studied expression data on endo16 of Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin) during the embryonic midgut development. A dynamic regulatory mechanism for endo16 expression controlled by three binding sites, UI, R and Otx is identified and demonstrated to be consistent with experimental findings. Furthermore, we show that during transition from specification to differentiation in wild type endo16 expression profile, SLM reveals three binary activities are not sufficient to explain the transcriptional regulation of endo16 expression and additional activities of binding sites are required. Further analyses suggest detailed mechanism of R switch activity where indirect dependency occurs in between UI activity and R switch during specification to differentiation stage. Conclusions/Significance The sequential logic formalism allows for a simplification of regulation network dynamics going from a continuous to a discrete representation of gene activation in time. In effect our SLM is non-parametric and model-independent, yet providing rich biological

  4. Sequential logic model deciphers dynamic transcriptional control of gene expressions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Xuan Yeo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cellular signaling involves a sequence of events from ligand binding to membrane receptors through transcription factors activation and the induction of mRNA expression. The transcriptional-regulatory system plays a pivotal role in the control of gene expression. A novel computational approach to the study of gene regulation circuits is presented here. METHODOLOGY: Based on the concept of finite state machine, which provides a discrete view of gene regulation, a novel sequential logic model (SLM is developed to decipher control mechanisms of dynamic transcriptional regulation of gene expressions. The SLM technique is also used to systematically analyze the dynamic function of transcriptional inputs, the dependency and cooperativity, such as synergy effect, among the binding sites with respect to when, how much and how fast the gene of interest is expressed. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: SLM is verified by a set of well studied expression data on endo16 of Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin during the embryonic midgut development. A dynamic regulatory mechanism for endo16 expression controlled by three binding sites, UI, R and Otx is identified and demonstrated to be consistent with experimental findings. Furthermore, we show that during transition from specification to differentiation in wild type endo16 expression profile, SLM reveals three binary activities are not sufficient to explain the transcriptional regulation of endo16 expression and additional activities of binding sites are required. Further analyses suggest detailed mechanism of R switch activity where indirect dependency occurs in between UI activity and R switch during specification to differentiation stage. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The sequential logic formalism allows for a simplification of regulation network dynamics going from a continuous to a discrete representation of gene activation in time. In effect our SLM is non-parametric and model-independent, yet

  5. Popularity Modeling for Mobile Apps: A Sequential Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hengshu; Liu, Chuanren; Ge, Yong; Xiong, Hui; Chen, Enhong

    2015-07-01

    The popularity information in App stores, such as chart rankings, user ratings, and user reviews, provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand user experiences with mobile Apps, learn the process of adoption of mobile Apps, and thus enables better mobile App services. While the importance of popularity information is well recognized in the literature, the use of the popularity information for mobile App services is still fragmented and under-explored. To this end, in this paper, we propose a sequential approach based on hidden Markov model (HMM) for modeling the popularity information of mobile Apps toward mobile App services. Specifically, we first propose a popularity based HMM (PHMM) to model the sequences of the heterogeneous popularity observations of mobile Apps. Then, we introduce a bipartite based method to precluster the popularity observations. This can help to learn the parameters and initial values of the PHMM efficiently. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the PHMM is a general model and can be applicable for various mobile App services, such as trend based App recommendation, rating and review spam detection, and ranking fraud detection. Finally, we validate our approach on two real-world data sets collected from the Apple Appstore. Experimental results clearly validate both the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed popularity modeling approach.

  6. Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe present an approach for analyzing market shares and products price elasticities based on large datasets containing aggregate sales data for many products, several markets and for relatively long time periods. We consider the recently proposed Bayesian approach of Jiang et al [Jiang,

  7. Sequential Path Model for Grain Yield in Soybean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad SEDGHI

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This study was performed to determine some physiological traits that affect soybean,s grain yield via sequential path analysis. In a factorial experiment, two cultivars (Harcor and Williams were sown under four levels of nitrogen and two levels of weed management at the research station of Tabriz University, Iran, during 2004 and 2005. Grain yield, some yield components and physiological traits were measured. Correlation coefficient analysis showed that grain yield had significant positive and negative association with measured traits. A sequential path analysis was done in order to evaluate associations among grain yield and related traits by ordering the various variables in first, second and third order paths on the basis of their maximum direct effects and minimal collinearity. Two first-order variables, namely number of pods per plant and pre-flowering net photosynthesis revealed highest direct effect on total grain yield and explained 49, 44 and 47 % of the variation in grain yield based on 2004, 2005, and combined datasets, respectively. Four traits i.e. post-flowering net photosynthesis, plant height, leaf area index and intercepted radiation at the bottom layer of canopy were found to fit as second-order variables. Pre- and post-flowering chlorophyll content, main root length and intercepted radiation at the middle layer of canopy were placed at the third-order path. From the results concluded that, number of pods per plant and pre-flowering net photosynthesis are the best selection criteria in soybean for grain yield.

  8. Microwave Ablation: Comparison of Simultaneous and Sequential Activation of Multiple Antennas in Liver Model Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harari, Colin M; Magagna, Michelle; Bedoya, Mariajose; Lee, Fred T; Lubner, Meghan G; Hinshaw, J Louis; Ziemlewicz, Timothy; Brace, Christopher L

    2016-01-01

    To compare microwave ablation zones created by using sequential or simultaneous power delivery in ex vivo and in vivo liver tissue. All procedures were approved by the institutional animal care and use committee. Microwave ablations were performed in both ex vivo and in vivo liver models with a 2.45-GHz system capable of powering up to three antennas simultaneously. Two- and three-antenna arrays were evaluated in each model. Sequential and simultaneous ablations were created by delivering power (50 W ex vivo, 65 W in vivo) for 5 minutes per antenna (10 and 15 minutes total ablation time for sequential ablations, 5 minutes for simultaneous ablations). Thirty-two ablations were performed in ex vivo bovine livers (eight per group) and 28 in the livers of eight swine in vivo (seven per group). Ablation zone size and circularity metrics were determined from ablations excised postmortem. Mixed effects modeling was used to evaluate the influence of power delivery, number of antennas, and tissue type. On average, ablations created by using the simultaneous power delivery technique were larger than those with the sequential technique (P Simultaneous ablations were also more circular than sequential ablations (P = .0001). Larger and more circular ablations were achieved with three antennas compared with two antennas (P simultaneous power delivery creates larger, more confluent ablations with greater temperatures than those created with sequential power delivery. © RSNA, 2015.

  9. Modeling two-phase ferroelectric composites by sequential laminates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idiart, Martín I

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical estimates are given for the overall dissipative response of two-phase ferroelectric composites with complex particulate microstructures under arbitrary loading histories. The ferroelectric behavior of the constituent phases is described via a stored energy density and a dissipation potential in accordance with the theory of generalized standard materials. An implicit time-discretization scheme is used to generate a variational representation of the overall response in terms of a single incremental potential. Estimates are then generated by constructing sequentially laminated microgeometries of particulate type whose overall incremental potential can be computed exactly. Because they are realizable, by construction, these estimates are guaranteed to conform with any material constraints, to satisfy all pertinent bounds and to exhibit the required convexity properties with no duality gap. Predictions for representative composite and porous systems are reported and discussed in the light of existing experimental data. (paper)

  10. Sequential decoding of intramuscular EMG signals via estimation of a Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsifrot, Jonathan; Le Carpentier, Eric; Aoustin, Yannick; Farina, Dario

    2014-09-01

    This paper addresses the sequential decoding of intramuscular single-channel electromyographic (EMG) signals to extract the activity of individual motor neurons. A hidden Markov model is derived from the physiological generation of the EMG signal. The EMG signal is described as a sum of several action potentials (wavelet) trains, embedded in noise. For each train, the time interval between wavelets is modeled by a process that parameters are linked to the muscular activity. The parameters of this process are estimated sequentially by a Bayes filter, along with the firing instants. The method was tested on some simulated signals and an experimental one, from which the rates of detection and classification of action potentials were above 95% with respect to the reference decomposition. The method works sequentially in time, and is the first to address the problem of intramuscular EMG decomposition online. It has potential applications for man-machine interfacing based on motor neuron activities.

  11. Formal Modeling and Verification of Interlocking Systems Featuring Sequential Release

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vu, Linh Hong; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method and an associated tool suite for formal verification of the new ETCS level 2 based Danish railway interlocking systems. We have made a generic and reconfigurable model of the system behavior and generic high-level safety properties. This model accommodates seque...... SMT based bounded model checking (BMC) and inductive reasoning, we are able to verify the properties for model instances corresponding to railway networks of industrial size. Experiments also show that BMC is efficient for finding bugs in the railway interlocking designs....

  12. Formal Modeling and Verification of Interlocking Systems Featuring Sequential Release

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vu, Linh Hong; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method and an associated tool suite for formal verification of the new ETCS level 2 based Danish railway interlocking systems. We have made a generic and reconfigurable model of the system behavior and generic high-level safety properties. This model accommodates seque...... SMT based bounded model checking (BMC) and inductive reasoning, we are able to verify the properties for model instances corresponding to railway networks of industrial size. Experiments also show that BMC is efficient for finding bugs in the railway interlocking designs....

  13. A sequential model for the structure of health care utilization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, W.J.; Haarmann, A.; Baerheim, A.

    2017-01-01

    Traditional measurement models of health care utilization are not able to represent the complex structure of health care utilization. In this qualitative study, we, therefore, developed a new model to represent the health care utilization structure. In Norway and Germany, we conducted episodic

  14. Formal modelling and verification of interlocking systems featuring sequential release

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vu, Linh Hong; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan

    2017-01-01

    checking (BMC) and inductive reasoning, it is verified that the generated model instance satisfies the generated safety properties. Using this method, we are able to verify the safety properties for model instances corresponding to railway networks of industrial size. Experiments show that BMC is also...

  15. Likelihood ratio sequential sampling models of recognition memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osth, Adam F; Dennis, Simon; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-02-01

    The mirror effect - a phenomenon whereby a manipulation produces opposite effects on hit and false alarm rates - is benchmark regularity of recognition memory. A likelihood ratio decision process, basing recognition on the relative likelihood that a stimulus is a target or a lure, naturally predicts the mirror effect, and so has been widely adopted in quantitative models of recognition memory. Glanzer, Hilford, and Maloney (2009) demonstrated that likelihood ratio models, assuming Gaussian memory strength, are also capable of explaining regularities observed in receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs), such as greater target than lure variance. Despite its central place in theorising about recognition memory, however, this class of models has not been tested using response time (RT) distributions. In this article, we develop a linear approximation to the likelihood ratio transformation, which we show predicts the same regularities as the exact transformation. This development enabled us to develop a tractable model of recognition-memory RT based on the diffusion decision model (DDM), with inputs (drift rates) provided by an approximate likelihood ratio transformation. We compared this "LR-DDM" to a standard DDM where all targets and lures receive their own drift rate parameters. Both were implemented as hierarchical Bayesian models and applied to four datasets. Model selection taking into account parsimony favored the LR-DDM, which requires fewer parameters than the standard DDM but still fits the data well. These results support log-likelihood based models as providing an elegant explanation of the regularities of recognition memory, not only in terms of choices made but also in terms of the times it takes to make them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  17. Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Jung–Min Yang

    2016-01-01

    Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...

  18. Sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo filter with simultaneous model selection for electrocardiogram signal modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edla, Shwetha; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia

    2012-01-01

    Constructing statistical models of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, whose parameters can be used for automated disease classification, is of great importance in precluding manual annotation and providing prompt diagnosis of cardiac diseases. ECG signals consist of several segments with different morphologies (namely the P wave, QRS complex and the T wave) in a single heart beat, which can vary across individuals and diseases. Also, existing statistical ECG models exhibit a reliance upon obtaining a priori information from the ECG data by using preprocessing algorithms to initialize the filter parameters, or to define the user-specified model parameters. In this paper, we propose an ECG modeling technique using the sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) filter that can perform simultaneous model selection, by adaptively choosing from different representations depending upon the nature of the data. Our results demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to track various types of ECG morphologies, including intermittently occurring ECG beats. In addition, we use the estimated model parameters as the feature set to classify between ECG signals with normal sinus rhythm and four different types of arrhythmia.

  19. Modeling eye gaze patterns in clinician-patient interaction with lag sequential analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montague, Enid; Xu, Jie; Chen, Ping-Yu; Asan, Onur; Barrett, Bruce P; Chewning, Betty

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether lag sequential analysis could be used to describe eye gaze orientation between clinicians and patients in the medical encounter. This topic is particularly important as new technologies are implemented into multiuser health care settings in which trust is critical and nonverbal cues are integral to achieving trust. This analysis method could lead to design guidelines for technologies and more effective assessments of interventions. Nonverbal communication patterns are important aspects of clinician-patient interactions and may affect patient outcomes. The eye gaze behaviors of clinicians and patients in 110 videotaped medical encounters were analyzed using the lag sequential method to identify significant behavior sequences. Lag sequential analysis included both event-based lag and time-based lag. Results from event-based lag analysis showed that the patient's gaze followed that of the clinician, whereas the clinician's gaze did not follow the patient's. Time-based sequential analysis showed that responses from the patient usually occurred within 2 s after the initial behavior of the clinician. Our data suggest that the clinician's gaze significantly affects the medical encounter but that the converse is not true. Findings from this research have implications for the design of clinical work systems and modeling interactions. Similar research methods could be used to identify different behavior patterns in clinical settings (physical layout, technology, etc.) to facilitate and evaluate clinical work system designs.

  20. Mathematical Model for the Sequential Action of Radiation and Heat on Yeast Cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jin Kyu; Lee, Yun Jong; Kim, Su Hyoun; Nili, Mohammad; Zhurakovskaya, Galina P.; Petin, Vladislav G.

    2009-01-01

    It is well known that the synergistic interaction of hyperthermia with ionizing radiation and other agents is widely used in hyperthermic oncology. Interaction between two agents may be considered as synergistic or antagonistic when the effect produced is greater or smaller than the sum of the two single responses. It has long be considered that the mechanism of synergistic interaction of hyperthermia and ionizing radiation may be brought about by an inhibition of the repair from sublethal and potentially lethal damage at the cellular level. The inhibition of the recovery process after combined treatments cannot be considered as a reason for the synergy, but rather would be the expected and predicted consequence of the production of irreversible damage. On the basis of it, a simple mathematical model of the synergistic interaction of two agents acting simultaneously has been proposed. However, the model has not been applied to predict the degree of interaction of heat and ionizing radiation after their sequential action. Extension of the model to the sequential treatment of heat and ionizing radiation seems to be of interest for theoretical and practical reasons. Thus, the purposes of the present work is to suggest the simplest mathematical model which would be able to account for the results obtained and currently available experimental information on the sequential action of radiation and heat.

  1. Development and sensitivity analysis of a fullykinetic model of sequential reductive dechlorination in subsurface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguerra, Flavio; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2010-01-01

    and natural degradation of chlorinated solvents frequently occurs in the subsurface through sequential reductive dechlorination. However, the occurrence and the performance of natural sequential reductive dechlorination strongly depends on environmental factor such as redox conditions, presence of fermenting...... organic matter / electron donors, presence of specific biomass, etc. Here we develop a new fully-kinetic biogeochemical reactive model able to simulate chlorinated solvents degradation as well as production and consumption of molecular hydrogen. The model is validated using batch experiment data......Chlorinated hydrocarbons originating from point sources are amongst the most prevalent contaminants of ground water and often represent a serious threat to groundwater-based drinking water resources. Natural attenuation of contaminant plumes can play a major role in contaminated site management...

  2. A SEQUENTIAL MODEL OF INNOVATION STRATEGY—COMPANY NON-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE LINKS

    OpenAIRE

    Ciptono, Wakhid Slamet

    2006-01-01

    This study extends the prior research (Zahra and Das 1993) by examining the association between a company’s innovation strategy and its non-financial performance in the upstream and downstream strategic business units (SBUs) of oil and gas companies. The sequential model suggests a causal sequence among six dimensions of innovation strategy (leadership orientation, process innovation, product/service innovation, external innovation source, internal innovation source, and investment) that may ...

  3. [Mathematical modeling of synergistic interaction of sequential thermoradiation action on mammalian cells].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belkina, S V; Semkina, M A; Kritskiĭ, R O; Petin, V G

    2010-01-01

    Data obtained by other authors for mammalian cells treated by sequential action of ionizing radiation and hyperthermia were used to estimate the dependence of synergistic enhancement ratio on the ratio of damages induced by these agents. Experimental results were described and interpreted by means of the mathematical model of synergism in accordance with which the synergism is expected to result from the additional lethal damage arising from the interaction of sublesions induced by both agents.

  4. Employees’ Perceptions of Corporate Social Responsibility and Job Performance: A Sequential Mediation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inyong Shin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In spite of the increasing importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR and employee job performance, little is still known about the links between the socially responsible actions of organizations and the job performance of their members. In order to explain how employees’ perceptions of CSR influence their job performance, this study first examines the relationships between perceived CSR, organizational identification, job satisfaction, and job performance, and then develops a sequential mediation model by fully integrating these links. The results of structural equation modeling analyses conducted for 250 employees at hotels in South Korea offered strong support for the proposed model. We found that perceived CSR was indirectly and positively associated with job performance sequentially mediated first through organizational identification and then job satisfaction. This study theoretically contributes to the CSR literature by revealing the sequential mechanism through which employees’ perceptions of CSR affect their job performance, and offers practical implications by stressing the importance of employees’ perceptions of CSR. Limitations of this study and future research directions are discussed.

  5. Valoração de contingente pelas modelagens logit e análise multivariada: um estudo de caso da disposição a aceitar compensação dos cafeicultores vinculados ao PRO-CAFÉ de Viçosa - MG Contingent valuation with modeling logit and multivariate analyses: a case study of the willingness of coffee planters linked to the PRO-COFFEE of Viçosa - MG to accept compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Silveira Máximo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.The object of this study was to identify which method, either LOGIT or multivariate analyses, was the most efficient to estimate the coffee planters' Willingness to Accept a Compensation, when there was a possibility of occurrence of marginal utility. For such, a questionnaire was formulated, with 33 questions involving information on coffee planters' socio - economic characteristics, the use of the methodology of contingent valuation (MCV, and the payment of the "offer game" that reveled the willingness to accept a compensation (WAC, by exchanging a hectare of coffee by a hectare of forest. As expected, because of the marginal utility's bias, the LOGIT method was unable to produce consistent results. However, when the WAC was estimated by multivariate analyses, the results showed that if the government is willing to increase the provision of forest to 70 hectares, it should pay out 254,200 reais (around 116,000 dollars, dealing only with the coffee planters

  6. Encoding Sequential Information in Semantic Space Models: Comparing Holographic Reduced Representation and Random Permutation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Recchia

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Circular convolution and random permutation have each been proposed as neurally plausible binding operators capable of encoding sequential information in semantic memory. We perform several controlled comparisons of circular convolution and random permutation as means of encoding paired associates as well as encoding sequential information. Random permutations outperformed convolution with respect to the number of paired associates that can be reliably stored in a single memory trace. Performance was equal on semantic tasks when using a small corpus, but random permutations were ultimately capable of achieving superior performance due to their higher scalability to large corpora. Finally, “noisy” permutations in which units are mapped to other units arbitrarily (no one-to-one mapping perform nearly as well as true permutations. These findings increase the neurological plausibility of random permutations and highlight their utility in vector space models of semantics.

  7. Sequential updating of a new dynamic pharmacokinetic model for caffeine in premature neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micallef, Sandrine; Amzal, Billy; Bach, Véronique; Chardon, Karen; Tourneux, Pierre; Bois, Frédéric Y

    2007-01-01

    Caffeine treatment is widely used in nursing care to reduce the risk of apnoea in premature neonates. To check the therapeutic efficacy of the treatment against apnoea, caffeine concentration in blood is an important indicator. The present study was aimed at building a pharmacokinetic model as a basis for a medical decision support tool. In the proposed model, time dependence of physiological parameters is introduced to describe rapid growth of neonates. To take into account the large variability in the population, the pharmacokinetic model is embedded in a population structure. The whole model is inferred within a Bayesian framework. To update caffeine concentration predictions as data of an incoming patient are collected, we propose a fast method that can be used in a medical context. This involves the sequential updating of model parameters (at individual and population levels) via a stochastic particle algorithm. Our model provides better predictions than the ones obtained with models previously published. We show, through an example, that sequential updating improves predictions of caffeine concentration in blood (reduce bias and length of credibility intervals). The update of the pharmacokinetic model using body mass and caffeine concentration data is studied. It shows how informative caffeine concentration data are in contrast to body mass data. This study provides the methodological basis to predict caffeine concentration in blood, after a given treatment if data are collected on the treated neonate.

  8. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

    2017-06-01

    Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.

  10. Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Y. L. Jack

    1984-01-01

    Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

  11. A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Gaofeng; Li, Xin; Ma, Jinzhu; Wang, Yunquan; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Kun; Hu, Xiaoli

    2018-04-01

    Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers have become increasing popular for estimating the posterior parameter distribution with the non-linear dependency structures and multiple modes often present in hydrological models. However, the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler depends strongly on the efficiency in the move step of SMC sampler. In this paper we presented a new SMC sampler entitled the Particle Evolution Metropolis Sequential Monte Carlo (PEM-SMC) algorithm, which is well suited to handle unknown static parameters of hydrologic model. The PEM-SMC sampler is inspired by the works of Liang and Wong (2001) and operates by incorporating the strengths of the genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm into the framework of SMC. We also prove that the sampler admits the target distribution to be a stationary distribution. Two case studies including a multi-dimensional bimodal normal distribution and a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model by only considering parameter uncertainty and simultaneously considering parameter and input uncertainty show that PEM-SMC sampler is generally superior to other popular SMC algorithms in handling the high dimensional problems. The study also indicated that it may be important to account for model structural uncertainty by using multiplier different hydrological models in the SMC framework in future study.

  12. A sequential threshold cure model for genetic analysis of time-to-event data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ødegård, J; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo S.

    2011-01-01

    In analysis of time-to-event data, classical survival models ignore the presence of potential nonsusceptible (cured) individuals, which, if present, will invalidate the inference procedures. Existence of nonsusceptible individuals is particularly relevant under challenge testing with specific...... pathogens, which is a common procedure in aquaculture breeding schemes. A cure model is a survival model accounting for a fraction of nonsusceptible individuals in the population. This study proposes a mixed cure model for time-to-event data, measured as sequential binary records. In a simulation study...... survival data were generated through 2 underlying traits: susceptibility and endurance (risk of dying per time-unit), associated with 2 sets of underlying liabilities. Despite considerable phenotypic confounding, the proposed model was largely able to distinguish the 2 traits. Furthermore, if selection...

  13. DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

    Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

  14. A SEQUENTIAL MODEL OF INNOVATION STRATEGY—COMPANY NON-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE LINKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wakhid Slamet Ciptono

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This study extends the prior research (Zahra and Das 1993 by examining the association between a company’s innovation strategy and its non-financial performance in the upstream and downstream strategic business units (SBUs of oil and gas companies. The sequential model suggests a causal sequence among six dimensions of innovation strategy (leadership orientation, process innovation, product/service innovation, external innovation source, internal innovation source, and investment that may lead to higher company non-financial performance (productivity and operational reliability. The study distributed a questionnaire (by mail, e-mailed web system, and focus group discussion to three levels of managers (top, middle, and first-line of 49 oil and gas companies with 140 SBUs in Indonesia. These qualified samples fell into 47 upstream (supply-chain companies with 132 SBUs, and 2 downstream (demand-chain companies with 8 SBUs. A total of 1,332 individual usable questionnaires were returned thus qualified for analysis, representing an effective response rate of 50.19 percent. The researcher conducts structural equation modeling (SEM and hierarchical multiple regression analysis to assess the goodness-of-fit between the research models and the sample data and to test whether innovation strategy mediates the impact of leadership orientation on company non-financial performance. SEM reveals that the models have met goodness-of-fit criteria, thus the interpretation of the sequential models fits with the data. The results of SEM and hierarchical multiple regression: (1 support the importance of innovation strategy as a determinant of company non-financial performance, (2 suggest that the sequential model is appropriate for examining the relationships between six dimensions of innovation strategy and company non-financial performance, and (3 show that the sequential model provides additional insights into the indirect contribution of the individual

  15. Learning of state-space models with highly informative observations: A tempered sequential Monte Carlo solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Andreas; Schön, Thomas B.; Lindsten, Fredrik

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on standard personal computers thanks to recent advances in Monte Carlo methods. In particular, for learning of unknown parameters in nonlinear state-space models, methods based on the particle filter (a Monte Carlo method) have proven very useful. A notoriously challenging problem, however, still occurs when the observations in the state-space model are highly informative, i.e. when there is very little or no measurement noise present, relative to the amount of process noise. The particle filter will then struggle in estimating one of the basic components for probabilistic learning, namely the likelihood p (data | parameters). To this end we suggest an algorithm which initially assumes that there is substantial amount of artificial measurement noise present. The variance of this noise is sequentially decreased in an adaptive fashion such that we, in the end, recover the original problem or possibly a very close approximation of it. The main component in our algorithm is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which gives our proposed method a clear resemblance to the SMC2 method. Another natural link is also made to the ideas underlying the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We illustrate it with numerical examples, and in particular show promising results for a challenging Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem.

  16. Logit Analysis for Profit Maximizing Loan Classification

    OpenAIRE

    Watt, David L.; Mortensen, Timothy L.; Leistritz, F. Larry

    1988-01-01

    Lending criteria and loan classification methods are developed. Rating system breaking points are analyzed to present a method to maximize loan revenues. Financial characteristics of farmers are used as determinants of delinquency in a multivariate logistic model. Results indicate that debt-to-asset and operating ration are most indicative of default.

  17. Behavioral Modeling of WSN MAC Layer Security Attacks: A Sequential UML Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pawar, Pranav M.; Nielsen, Rasmus Hjorth; Prasad, Neeli R.

    2012-01-01

    is the vulnerability to security attacks/threats. The performance and behavior of a WSN are vastly affected by such attacks. In order to be able to better address the vulnerabilities of WSNs in terms of security, it is important to understand the behavior of the attacks. This paper addresses the behavioral modeling...... of medium access control (MAC) security attacks in WSNs. The MAC layer is responsible for energy consumption, delay and channel utilization of the network and attacks on this layer can introduce significant degradation of the individual sensor nodes due to energy drain and in performance due to delays....... The behavioral modeling of attacks will be beneficial for designing efficient and secure MAC layer protocols. The security attacks are modeled using a sequential diagram approach of Unified Modeling Language (UML). Further, a new attack definition, specific to hybrid MAC mechanisms, is proposed....

  18. Macroscopic Dynamic Modeling of Sequential Batch Cultures of Hybridoma Cells: An Experimental Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Dewasme

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Hybridoma cells are commonly grown for the production of monoclonal antibodies (MAb. For monitoring and control purposes of the bioreactors, dynamic models of the cultures are required. However these models are difficult to infer from the usually limited amount of available experimental data and do not focus on target protein production optimization. This paper explores an experimental case study where hybridoma cells are grown in a sequential batch reactor. The simplest macroscopic reaction scheme translating the data is first derived using a maximum likelihood principal component analysis. Subsequently, nonlinear least-squares estimation is used to determine the kinetic laws. The resulting dynamic model reproduces quite satisfactorily the experimental data, as evidenced in direct and cross-validation tests. Furthermore, model predictions can also be used to predict optimal medium renewal time and composition.

  19. Corpus Callosum Analysis using MDL-based Sequential Models of Shape and Appearance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Davies, Rhodri H.; Ryberg, Charlotte

    2004-01-01

    are proposed, but all remain applicable to other domain problems. The well-known multi-resolution AAM optimisation is extended to include sequential relaxations on texture resolution, model coverage and model parameter constraints. Fully unsupervised analysis is obtained by exploiting model parameter...... that show that the method produces accurate, robust and rapid segmentations in a cross sectional study of 17 subjects, establishing its feasibility as a fully automated clinical tool for analysis and segmentation.......This paper describes a method for automatically analysing and segmenting the corpus callosum from magnetic resonance images of the brain based on the widely used Active Appearance Models (AAMs) by Cootes et al. Extensions of the original method, which are designed to improve this specific case...

  20. Exposure assessment of mobile phone base station radiation in an outdoor environment using sequential surrogate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Deschrijver, Dirk; Joseph, Wout; Verloock, Leen; Goeminne, Francis; Martens, Luc; Dhaene, Tom

    2013-05-01

    Human exposure to background radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) has been increasing with the introduction of new technologies. There is a definite need for the quantification of RF-EMF exposure but a robust exposure assessment is not yet possible, mainly due to the lack of a fast and efficient measurement procedure. In this article, a new procedure is proposed for accurately mapping the exposure to base station radiation in an outdoor environment based on surrogate modeling and sequential design, an entirely new approach in the domain of dosimetry for human RF exposure. We tested our procedure in an urban area of about 0.04 km(2) for Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) technology at 900 MHz (GSM900) using a personal exposimeter. Fifty measurement locations were sufficient to obtain a coarse street exposure map, locating regions of high and low exposure; 70 measurement locations were sufficient to characterize the electric field distribution in the area and build an accurate predictive interpolation model. Hence, accurate GSM900 downlink outdoor exposure maps (for use in, e.g., governmental risk communication and epidemiological studies) are developed by combining the proven efficiency of sequential design with the speed of exposimeter measurements and their ease of handling. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Qing

    2016-02-23

    Alzheimer\\'s Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders\\' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD\\'s progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients\\' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer\\'s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

  2. Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Qing; Wang, Su; Zhu, Jia; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD's progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

  3. Multiple sequential failure model: A probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta

    1985-01-01

    This paper rpesents a probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency when multiple tasks are performed. Dependent human failures are dominant contributors to risks from nuclear power plants. An overview of the Multiple Sequential Failure (MSF) model developed and its use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) depending on the available data are discussed. A small-scale psychological experiment was conducted on the nature of human dependency and the interpretation of the experimental data by the MSF model show remarkable accommodation of the dependent failure data. The model, which provides an unique method for quantification of dependent failures in human reliability analysis, can be used in conjunction with any of the general methods currently used for performing the human reliability aspect in PRAs

  4. Un procedimiento para selección de los modelos Logit Mixtos

    OpenAIRE

    Ruíz Gallegos, José de Jesús

    2004-01-01

    En el presente trabajo se hace una revisión de dos modelos que han tenido una fuerte aplicabilidad en los problemas de elecciones discretas: El modelo Logit y el modelo Logit Mixto. Además, se propone el uso del estadístico de Cox para seleccionar modelos, en el modelo Logit Mixto.

  5. Validation studies on indexed sequential modeling for the Colorado River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labadie, J.W.; Fontane, D.G.; Salas, J.D.; Ouarda, T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a method called indexed sequential modeling (ISM) that has been developed by the Western Area Power Administration to estimate reliable levels of project dependable power capacity (PDC) and applied to several federal hydro systems in the Western U.S. The validity of ISM in relation to more commonly accepted stochastic modeling approaches is analyzed by applying it to the Colorado River Basin using the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Performance of ISM is compared with results from input of stochastically generated data using the LAST Applied Stochastic Techniques Package. Results indicate that output generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with results obtained from final convergent stochastically generated hydrology for the Colorado River Basin

  6. Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task.

  7. Improving multiple-point-based a priori models for inverse problems by combining Sequential Simulation with the Frequency Matching Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Lange, Katrine

    In order to move beyond simplified covariance based a priori models, which are typically used for inverse problems, more complex multiple-point-based a priori models have to be considered. By means of marginal probability distributions ‘learned’ from a training image, sequential simulation has...... proven to be an efficient way of obtaining multiple realizations that honor the same multiple-point statistics as the training image. The frequency matching method provides an alternative way of formulating multiple-point-based a priori models. In this strategy the pattern frequency distributions (i.......e. marginals) of the training image and a subsurface model are matched in order to obtain a solution with the same multiple-point statistics as the training image. Sequential Gibbs sampling is a simulation strategy that provides an efficient way of applying sequential simulation based algorithms as a priori...

  8. Mind-to-mind heteroclinic coordination: Model of sequential episodic memory initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, V. S.; Zaks, M. A.; Rabinovich, M. I.

    2018-05-01

    Retrieval of episodic memory is a dynamical process in the large scale brain networks. In social groups, the neural patterns, associated with specific events directly experienced by single members, are encoded, recalled, and shared by all participants. Here, we construct and study the dynamical model for the formation and maintaining of episodic memory in small ensembles of interacting minds. We prove that the unconventional dynamical attractor of this process—the nonsmooth heteroclinic torus—is structurally stable within the Lotka-Volterra-like sets of equations. Dynamics on this torus combines the absence of chaos with asymptotic instability of every separate trajectory; its adequate quantitative characteristics are length-related Lyapunov exponents. Variation of the coupling strength between the participants results in different types of sequential switching between metastable states; we interpret them as stages in formation and modification of the episodic memory.

  9. Multistrain models predict sequential multidrug treatment strategies to result in less antimicrobial resistance than combination treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2016-01-01

    generated by a mathematical model of the competitive growth of multiple strains of Escherichia coli.Results: Simulation studies showed that sequential use of tetracycline and ampicillin reduced the level of double resistance, when compared to the combination treatment. The effect of the cycling frequency...... frequency did not play a role in suppressing the growth of resistant strains, but the specific order of the two antimicrobials did. Predictions made from the study could be used to redesign multidrug treatment strategies not only for intramuscular treatment in pigs, but also for other dosing routes.......Background: Combination treatment is increasingly used to fight infections caused by bacteria resistant to two or more antimicrobials. While multiple studies have evaluated treatment strategies to minimize the emergence of resistant strains for single antimicrobial treatment, fewer studies have...

  10. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  11. On Modeling Large-Scale Multi-Agent Systems with Parallel, Sequential and Genuinely Asynchronous Cellular Automata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosic, P.T.

    2011-01-01

    We study certain types of Cellular Automata (CA) viewed as an abstraction of large-scale Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). We argue that the classical CA model needs to be modified in several important respects, in order to become a relevant and sufficiently general model for the large-scale MAS, and so that thus generalized model can capture many important MAS properties at the level of agent ensembles and their long-term collective behavior patterns. We specifically focus on the issue of inter-agent communication in CA, and propose sequential cellular automata (SCA) as the first step, and genuinely Asynchronous Cellular Automata (ACA) as the ultimate deterministic CA-based abstract models for large-scale MAS made of simple reactive agents. We first formulate deterministic and nondeterministic versions of sequential CA, and then summarize some interesting configuration space properties (i.e., possible behaviors) of a restricted class of sequential CA. In particular, we compare and contrast those properties of sequential CA with the corresponding properties of the classical (that is, parallel and perfectly synchronous) CA with the same restricted class of update rules. We analytically demonstrate failure of the studied sequential CA models to simulate all possible behaviors of perfectly synchronous parallel CA, even for a very restricted class of non-linear totalistic node update rules. The lesson learned is that the interleaving semantics of concurrency, when applied to sequential CA, is not refined enough to adequately capture the perfect synchrony of parallel CA updates. Last but not least, we outline what would be an appropriate CA-like abstraction for large-scale distributed computing insofar as the inter-agent communication model is concerned, and in that context we propose genuinely asynchronous CA. (author)

  12. Numerical proceessing of radioimmunoassay results using logit-log transformation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Textoris, R.

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical model and algorithm are described of the numerical processing of the results of a radioimmunoassay by the logit-log transformation method and by linear regression with weight factors. The limiting value of the curve for zero concentration is optimized with regard to the residual sum by the iterative method by multiple repeats of the linear regression. Typical examples are presented of the approximation of calibration curves. The method proved suitable for all hitherto used RIA sets and is well suited for small computers with internal memory of min. 8 Kbyte. (author)

  13. Methamphetamine-alcohol interactions in murine models of sequential and simultaneous oral drug-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fultz, Elissa K; Martin, Douglas L; Hudson, Courtney N; Kippin, Tod E; Szumlinski, Karen K

    2017-08-01

    A high degree of co-morbidity exists between methamphetamine (MA) addiction and alcohol use disorders and both sequential and simultaneous MA-alcohol mixing increases risk for co-abuse. As little preclinical work has focused on the biobehavioral interactions between MA and alcohol within the context of drug-taking behavior, we employed simple murine models of voluntary oral drug consumption to examine how prior histories of either MA- or alcohol-taking influence the intake of the other drug. In one study, mice with a 10-day history of binge alcohol-drinking [5,10, 20 and 40% (v/v); 2h/day] were trained to self-administer oral MA in an operant-conditioning paradigm (10-40mg/L). In a second study, mice with a 10-day history of limited-access oral MA-drinking (5, 10, 20 and 40mg/L; 2h/day) were presented with alcohol (5-40% v/v; 2h/day) and then a choice between solutions of 20% alcohol, 10mg/L MA or their mix. Under operant-conditioning procedures, alcohol-drinking mice exhibited less MA reinforcement overall, than water controls. However, when drug availability was not behaviorally-contingent, alcohol-drinking mice consumed more MA and exhibited greater preference for the 10mg/L MA solution than drug-naïve and combination drug-experienced mice. Conversely, prior MA-drinking history increased alcohol intake across a range of alcohol concentrations. These exploratory studies indicate the feasibility of employing procedurally simple murine models of sequential and simultaneous oral MA-alcohol mixing of relevance to advancing our biobehavioral understanding of MA-alcohol co-abuse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Tran-Duy (An); A. Boonen (Annelies); M.A.F.J. van de Laar (Mart); A. Franke (Andre); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods: Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model

  15. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tran-Duy, A.; Boonen, A.; Laar, M.A.F.J.; Franke, A.C.; Severens, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug

  16. AUTOMATIC 3D BUILDING MODEL GENERATION FROM LIDAR AND IMAGE DATA USING SEQUENTIAL MINIMUM BOUNDING RECTANGLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kwak

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Digital Building Model is an important component in many applications such as city modelling, natural disaster planning, and aftermath evaluation. The importance of accurate and up-to-date building models has been discussed by many researchers, and many different approaches for efficient building model generation have been proposed. They can be categorised according to the data source used, the data processing strategy, and the amount of human interaction. In terms of data source, due to the limitations of using single source data, integration of multi-senor data is desired since it preserves the advantages of the involved datasets. Aerial imagery and LiDAR data are among the commonly combined sources to obtain 3D building models with good vertical accuracy from laser scanning and good planimetric accuracy from aerial images. The most used data processing strategies are data-driven and model-driven ones. Theoretically one can model any shape of buildings using data-driven approaches but practically it leaves the question of how to impose constraints and set the rules during the generation process. Due to the complexity of the implementation of the data-driven approaches, model-based approaches draw the attention of the researchers. However, the major drawback of model-based approaches is that the establishment of representative models involves a manual process that requires human intervention. Therefore, the objective of this research work is to automatically generate building models using the Minimum Bounding Rectangle algorithm and sequentially adjusting them to combine the advantages of image and LiDAR datasets.

  17. Analysis of membrane fusion as a two-state sequential process: evaluation of the stalk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinreb, Gabriel; Lentz, Barry R

    2007-06-01

    We propose a model that accounts for the time courses of PEG-induced fusion of membrane vesicles of varying lipid compositions and sizes. The model assumes that fusion proceeds from an initial, aggregated vesicle state ((A) membrane contact) through two sequential intermediate states (I(1) and I(2)) and then on to a fusion pore state (FP). Using this model, we interpreted data on the fusion of seven different vesicle systems. We found that the initial aggregated state involved no lipid or content mixing but did produce leakage. The final state (FP) was not leaky. Lipid mixing normally dominated the first intermediate state (I(1)), but content mixing signal was also observed in this state for most systems. The second intermediate state (I(2)) exhibited both lipid and content mixing signals and leakage, and was sometimes the only leaky state. In some systems, the first and second intermediates were indistinguishable and converted directly to the FP state. Having also tested a parallel, two-intermediate model subject to different assumptions about the nature of the intermediates, we conclude that a sequential, two-intermediate model is the simplest model sufficient to describe PEG-mediated fusion in all vesicle systems studied. We conclude as well that a fusion intermediate "state" should not be thought of as a fixed structure (e.g., "stalk" or "transmembrane contact") of uniform properties. Rather, a fusion "state" describes an ensemble of similar structures that can have different mechanical properties. Thus, a "state" can have varying probabilities of having a given functional property such as content mixing, lipid mixing, or leakage. Our data show that the content mixing signal may occur through two processes, one correlated and one not correlated with leakage. Finally, we consider the implications of our results in terms of the "modified stalk" hypothesis for the mechanism of lipid pore formation. We conclude that our results not only support this hypothesis but

  18. Distributed data access in the sequential access model at the D0 experiment at Fermilab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terekhov, Igor; White, Victoria

    2000-01-01

    The authors present the Sequential Access Model (SAM), which is the data handling system for D0, one of two primary High Energy Experiments at Fermilab. During the next several years, the D0 experiment will store a total of about 1 PByte of data, including raw detector data and data processed at various levels. The design of SAM is not specific to the D0 experiment and carries few assumptions about the underlying mass storage level; its ideas are applicable to any sequential data access. By definition, in the sequential access mode a user application needs to process a stream of data, by accessing each data unit exactly once, the order of data units in the stream being irrelevant. The units of data are laid out sequentially in files. The adopted model allows for significant optimizations of system performance, decrease of user file latency and increase of overall throughput. In particular, caching is done with the knowledge of all the files needed in the near future, defined as all the files of the already running or submitted jobs. The bulk of the data is stored in files on tape in the mass storage system (MSS) called Enstore[2] and also developed at Fermilab. (The tape drives are served by an ADIC AML/2 Automated Tape Library). At any given time, SAM has a small fraction of the data cached on disk for processing. In the present paper, the authors discuss how data is delivered onto disk and how it is accessed by user applications. They will concentrate on data retrieval (consumption) from the MSS; when SAM is used for storing of data, the mechanisms are rather symmetrical. All of the data managed by SAM is cataloged in great detail in a relational database (ORACLE). The database also serves as the persistency mechanism for the SAM servers described in this paper. Any client or server in the SAM system which needs to store or retrieve information from the database does so through the interfaces of a CORBA-based database server. The users (physicists) use the

  19. SPRINT: A Tool to Generate Concurrent Transaction-Level Models from Sequential Code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Stahl

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A high-level concurrent model such as a SystemC transaction-level model can provide early feedback during the exploration of implementation alternatives for state-of-the-art signal processing applications like video codecs on a multiprocessor platform. However, the creation of such a model starting from sequential code is a time-consuming and error-prone task. It is typically done only once, if at all, for a given design. This lack of exploration of the design space often leads to a suboptimal implementation. To support our systematic C-based design flow, we have developed a tool to generate a concurrent SystemC transaction-level model for user-selected task boundaries. Using this tool, different parallelization alternatives have been evaluated during the design of an MPEG-4 simple profile encoder and an embedded zero-tree coder. Generation plus evaluation of an alternative was possible in less than six minutes. This is fast enough to allow extensive exploration of the design space.

  20. Patient specific dynamic geometric models from sequential volumetric time series image data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, B M; Robb, R A

    2004-01-01

    Generating patient specific dynamic models is complicated by the complexity of the motion intrinsic and extrinsic to the anatomic structures being modeled. Using a physics-based sequentially deforming algorithm, an anatomically accurate dynamic four-dimensional model can be created from a sequence of 3-D volumetric time series data sets. While such algorithms may accurately track the cyclic non-linear motion of the heart, they generally fail to accurately track extrinsic structural and non-cyclic motion. To accurately model these motions, we have modified a physics-based deformation algorithm to use a meta-surface defining the temporal and spatial maxima of the anatomic structure as the base reference surface. A mass-spring physics-based deformable model, which can expand or shrink with the local intrinsic motion, is applied to the metasurface, deforming this base reference surface to the volumetric data at each time point. As the meta-surface encompasses the temporal maxima of the structure, any extrinsic motion is inherently encoded into the base reference surface and allows the computation of the time point surfaces to be performed in parallel. The resultant 4-D model can be interactively transformed and viewed from different angles, showing the spatial and temporal motion of the anatomic structure. Using texture maps and per-vertex coloring, additional data such as physiological and/or biomechanical variables (e.g., mapping electrical activation sequences onto contracting myocardial surfaces) can be associated with the dynamic model, producing a 5-D model. For acquisition systems that may capture only limited time series data (e.g., only images at end-diastole/end-systole or inhalation/exhalation), this algorithm can provide useful interpolated surfaces between the time points. Such models help minimize the number of time points required to usefully depict the motion of anatomic structures for quantitative assessment of regional dynamics.

  1. Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

    KAUST Repository

    Khaki, M.

    2017-07-06

    The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) scheme and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF), respectively improving the model groundwater estimations errors by 34% and 31% compared to a model run without assimilation. Applying the PF along with Systematic Resampling successfully decreases the model estimation error by 23%.

  2. Particle rejuvenation of Rao-Blackwellized sequential Monte Carlo smoothers for conditionally linear and Gaussian models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngoc Minh; Corff, Sylvain Le; Moulines, Éric

    2017-12-01

    This paper focuses on sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothing distributions in conditionally linear and Gaussian state spaces. To reduce Monte Carlo variance of smoothers, it is typical in these models to use Rao-Blackwellization: particle approximation is used to sample sequences of hidden regimes while the Gaussian states are explicitly integrated conditional on the sequence of regimes and observations, using variants of the Kalman filter/smoother. The first successful attempt to use Rao-Blackwellization for smoothing extends the Bryson-Frazier smoother for Gaussian linear state space models using the generalized two-filter formula together with Kalman filters/smoothers. More recently, a forward-backward decomposition of smoothing distributions mimicking the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother for the regimes combined with backward Kalman updates has been introduced. This paper investigates the benefit of introducing additional rejuvenation steps in all these algorithms to sample at each time instant new regimes conditional on the forward and backward particles. This defines particle-based approximations of the smoothing distributions whose support is not restricted to the set of particles sampled in the forward or backward filter. These procedures are applied to commodity markets which are described using a two-factor model based on the spot price and a convenience yield for crude oil data.

  3. Sequential assimilation of multi-mission dynamical topography into a global finite-element ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Skachko

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on an accurate estimation of ocean circulation via assimilation of satellite measurements of ocean dynamical topography into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM. The dynamical topography data are derived from a complex analysis of multi-mission altimetry data combined with a referenced earth geoid. The assimilation is split into two parts. First, the mean dynamic topography is adjusted. To this end an adiabatic pressure correction method is used which reduces model divergence from the real evolution. Second, a sequential assimilation technique is applied to improve the representation of thermodynamical processes by assimilating the time varying dynamic topography. A method is used according to which the temperature and salinity are updated following the vertical structure of the first baroclinic mode. It is shown that the method leads to a partially successful assimilation approach reducing the rms difference between the model and data from 16 cm to 2 cm. This improvement of the mean state is accompanied by significant improvement of temporal variability in our analysis. However, it remains suboptimal, showing a tendency in the forecast phase of returning toward a free run without data assimilation. Both the mean difference and standard deviation of the difference between the forecast and observation data are reduced as the result of assimilation.

  4. Limit Theory for Panel Data Models with Cross Sectional Dependence and Sequential Exogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuersteiner, Guido M; Prucha, Ingmar R

    2013-06-01

    The paper derives a general Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and asymptotic distributions for sample moments related to panel data models with large n . The results allow for the data to be cross sectionally dependent, while at the same time allowing the regressors to be only sequentially rather than strictly exogenous. The setup is sufficiently general to accommodate situations where cross sectional dependence stems from spatial interactions and/or from the presence of common factors. The latter leads to the need for random norming. The limit theorem for sample moments is derived by showing that the moment conditions can be recast such that a martingale difference array central limit theorem can be applied. We prove such a central limit theorem by first extending results for stable convergence in Hall and Hedye (1980) to non-nested martingale arrays relevant for our applications. We illustrate our result by establishing a generalized estimation theory for GMM estimators of a fixed effect panel model without imposing i.i.d. or strict exogeneity conditions. We also discuss a class of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators that can be analyzed using our CLT.

  5. Prospectivity Modeling of Karstic Groundwater Using a Sequential Exploration Approach in Tepal Area, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.

  6. Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

    2018-01-01

    After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work–family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women’s perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work–family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress. PMID:29719522

  7. Work-Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

    2018-01-01

    After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work-family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work-family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women's perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work-family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress.

  8. Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyi Zhou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work–family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women’s perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work–family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress.

  9. A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudry, Modassar; Wu, Jianzhong; Jenkins, Nick

    2013-01-01

    A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed to determine the reliability of the energy infrastructure. The model integrates the gas and electricity network into a single sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The model minimises the combined costs of the gas and electricity network, these include gas supplies, gas storage operation and electricity generation. The Monte Carlo model calculates reliability indices such as loss of load probability and expected energy unserved for the combined gas and electricity network. The intention of this tool is to facilitate reliability analysis of integrated energy systems. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study that quantifies the impact on the reliability of the GB gas and electricity network given uncertainties such as wind variability, gas supply availability and outages to energy infrastructure assets. Analysis is performed over a typical midwinter week on a hypothesised GB gas and electricity network in 2020 that meets European renewable energy targets. The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on the reliability of the energy system is assessed. The results highlight the value of greater gas storage facilities in enhancing the reliability of the GB energy system given various energy uncertainties. -- Highlights: •A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed. •Reliability indices are calculated for the combined GB gas and electricity system. •The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on reliability of the energy system is assessed. •Integrated reliability indices could be used to assess the impact of investment in energy assets

  10. In vivo comparison of simultaneous versus sequential injection technique for thermochemical ablation in a porcine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressman, Erik N K; Shenoi, Mithun M; Edelman, Theresa L; Geeslin, Matthew G; Hennings, Leah J; Zhang, Yan; Iaizzo, Paul A; Bischof, John C

    2012-01-01

    To investigate simultaneous and sequential injection thermochemical ablation in a porcine model, and compare them to sham and acid-only ablation. This IACUC-approved study involved 11 pigs in an acute setting. Ultrasound was used to guide placement of a thermocouple probe and coaxial device designed for thermochemical ablation. Solutions of 10 M acetic acid and NaOH were used in the study. Four injections per pig were performed in identical order at a total rate of 4 mL/min: saline sham, simultaneous, sequential, and acid only. Volume and sphericity of zones of coagulation were measured. Fixed specimens were examined by H&E stain. Average coagulation volumes were 11.2 mL (simultaneous), 19.0 mL (sequential) and 4.4 mL (acid). The highest temperature, 81.3°C, was obtained with simultaneous injection. Average temperatures were 61.1°C (simultaneous), 47.7°C (sequential) and 39.5°C (acid only). Sphericity coefficients (0.83-0.89) had no statistically significant difference among conditions. Thermochemical ablation produced substantial volumes of coagulated tissues relative to the amounts of reagents injected, considerably greater than acid alone in either technique employed. The largest volumes were obtained with sequential injection, yet this came at a price in one case of cardiac arrest. Simultaneous injection yielded the highest recorded temperatures and may be tolerated as well as or better than acid injection alone. Although this pilot study did not show a clear advantage for either sequential or simultaneous methods, the results indicate that thermochemical ablation is attractive for further investigation with regard to both safety and efficacy.

  11. Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

    1995-12-01

    This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  12. Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herckenrath, Daan; Fiandaca, G.; Auken, Esben

    2013-01-01

    hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI) a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters...... with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI). In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical...

  13. Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herckenrath, Daan; Fiandaca, G.; Auken, Esben

    2013-01-01

    with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI). In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical...... hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI) a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters...

  14. Efficiency Loss of Mixed Equilibrium Associated with Altruistic Users and Logit-based Stochastic Users in Transportation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jun Yu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency loss of mixed equilibrium associated with two categories of users is investigated in this paper. The first category of users are altruistic users (AU who have the same altruism coefficient and try to minimize their own perceived cost that assumed to be a linear combination of selfish com­ponent and altruistic component. The second category of us­ers are Logit-based stochastic users (LSU who choose the route according to the Logit-based stochastic user equilib­rium (SUE principle. The variational inequality (VI model is used to formulate the mixed route choice behaviours associ­ated with AU and LSU. The efficiency loss caused by the two categories of users is analytically derived and the relations to some network parameters are discussed. The numerical tests validate our analytical results. Our result takes the re­sults in the existing literature as its special cases.

  15. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kesehatan Bank dengan Regresi Logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titik Aryati

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to find the probability effects of bank’s health level using CAMEL ratio analysis. The statistic method used to test on the research hypothesis was logit regression. The dependent variable used in this research was bank’s health level and independent variables were CAMEL financial ratios consisting of CAR, NPL, ROA, ROE, LDR, and NIM. The report data were extracted from bank’s financial from financial report, which had been published and accumulated by Infobank research bureau with valuation, based on bank Indonesia policy. The sample consisted of 60 healthy banks and 14 unhealthy banks in 2005 and 2006. The empirical result of this research indicates that the Non Performing Loan is the significant variable affecting bank health level.

  17. Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

  18. Bootstrap Sequential Determination of the Co-integration Rank in VAR Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guiseppe, Cavaliere; Rahbæk, Anders; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    with empirical rejection frequencies often very much in excess of the nominal level. As a consequence, bootstrap versions of these tests have been developed. To be useful, however, sequential procedures for determining the co-integrating rank based on these bootstrap tests need to be consistent, in the sense...... in the literature by proposing a bootstrap sequential algorithm which we demonstrate delivers consistent cointegration rank estimation for general I(1) processes. Finite sample Monte Carlo simulations show the proposed procedure performs well in practice....

  19. Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

    OpenAIRE

    Shiyi Zhou; Shu Da; Heng Guo; Xichao Zhang

    2018-01-01

    After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relat...

  20. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  1. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  2. Multistrain models predict sequential multidrug treatment strategies to result in less antimicrobial resistance than combination treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2016-01-01

    Background: Combination treatment is increasingly used to fight infections caused by bacteria resistant to two or more antimicrobials. While multiple studies have evaluated treatment strategies to minimize the emergence of resistant strains for single antimicrobial treatment, fewer studies have...... the sensitive fraction of the commensal flora.Growth parameters for competing bacterial strains were estimated from the combined in vitro pharmacodynamic effect of two antimicrobials using the relationship between concentration and net bacterial growth rate. Predictions of in vivo bacterial growth were...... (how frequently antibiotics are alternated in a sequential treatment) of the two drugs was dependent upon the order in which the two drugs were used.Conclusion: Sequential treatment was more effective in preventing the growth of resistant strains when compared to the combination treatment. The cycling...

  3. A meta-analysis of response-time tests of the sequential two-systems model of moral judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jonathan; Gürçay, Burcu

    2017-05-01

    The (generalized) sequential two-system ("default interventionist") model of utilitarian moral judgment predicts that utilitarian responses often arise from a system-two correction of system-one deontological intuitions. Response-time (RT) results that seem to support this model are usually explained by the fact that low-probability responses have longer RTs. Following earlier results, we predicted response probability from each subject's tendency to make utilitarian responses (A, "Ability") and each dilemma's tendency to elicit deontological responses (D, "Difficulty"), estimated from a Rasch model. At the point where A = D, the two responses are equally likely, so probability effects cannot account for any RT differences between them. The sequential two-system model still predicts that many of the utilitarian responses made at this point will result from system-two corrections of system-one intuitions, hence should take longer. However, when A = D, RT for the two responses was the same, contradicting the sequential model. Here we report a meta-analysis of 26 data sets, which replicated the earlier results of no RT difference overall at the point where A = D. The data sets used three different kinds of moral judgment items, and the RT equality at the point where A = D held for all three. In addition, we found that RT increased with A-D. This result holds for subjects (characterized by Ability) but not for items (characterized by Difficulty). We explain the main features of this unanticipated effect, and of the main results, with a drift-diffusion model.

  4. Sequential Banking.

    OpenAIRE

    Bizer, David S; DeMarzo, Peter M

    1992-01-01

    The authors study environments in which agents may borrow sequentially from more than one leader. Although debt is prioritized, additional lending imposes an externality on prior debt because, with moral hazard, the probability of repayment of prior loans decreases. Equilibrium interest rates are higher than they would be if borrowers could commit to borrow from at most one bank. Even though the loan terms are less favorable than they would be under commitment, the indebtedness of borrowers i...

  5. Systems-level modeling the effects of arsenic exposure with sequential pulsed and fluctuating patterns for tilapia and freshwater clam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.-Y.; Tsai, J.-W.; Ju, Y.-R.; Liao, C.-M.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was to use quantitative systems-level approach employing biotic ligand model based threshold damage model to examine physiological responses of tilapia and freshwater clam to sequential pulsed and fluctuating arsenic concentrations. We tested present model and triggering mechanisms by carrying out a series of modeling experiments where we used periodic pulses and sine-wave as featured exposures. Our results indicate that changes in the dominant frequencies and pulse timing can shift the safe rate distributions for tilapia, but not for that of freshwater clam. We found that tilapia increase bioenergetic costs to maintain the acclimation during pulsed and sine-wave exposures. Our ability to predict the consequences of physiological variation under time-varying exposure patterns has also implications for optimizing species growing, cultivation strategies, and risk assessment in realistic situations. - Systems-level modeling the pulsed and fluctuating arsenic exposures.

  6. Systems-level modeling the effects of arsenic exposure with sequential pulsed and fluctuating patterns for tilapia and freshwater clam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, W.-Y. [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Tsai, J.-W. [Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Ecology, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan (China); Ju, Y.-R. [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Liao, C.-M., E-mail: cmliao@ntu.edu.t [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2010-05-15

    The purpose of this paper was to use quantitative systems-level approach employing biotic ligand model based threshold damage model to examine physiological responses of tilapia and freshwater clam to sequential pulsed and fluctuating arsenic concentrations. We tested present model and triggering mechanisms by carrying out a series of modeling experiments where we used periodic pulses and sine-wave as featured exposures. Our results indicate that changes in the dominant frequencies and pulse timing can shift the safe rate distributions for tilapia, but not for that of freshwater clam. We found that tilapia increase bioenergetic costs to maintain the acclimation during pulsed and sine-wave exposures. Our ability to predict the consequences of physiological variation under time-varying exposure patterns has also implications for optimizing species growing, cultivation strategies, and risk assessment in realistic situations. - Systems-level modeling the pulsed and fluctuating arsenic exposures.

  7. AdOn HDP-HMM: An Adaptive Online Model for Segmentation and Classification of Sequential Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargi, Ava; Xu, Richard Yi Da; Piccardi, Massimo

    2017-09-21

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing need for the automated classification of sequential data, such as activities of daily living, social media interactions, financial series, and others. With the continuous flow of new data, it is critical to classify the observations on-the-fly and without being limited by a predetermined number of classes. In addition, a model should be able to update its parameters in response to a possible evolution in the distributions of the classes. This compelling problem, however, does not seem to have been adequately addressed in the literature, since most studies focus on offline classification over predefined class sets. In this paper, we present a principled solution for this problem based on an adaptive online system leveraging Markov switching models and hierarchical Dirichlet process priors. This adaptive online approach is capable of classifying the sequential data over an unlimited number of classes while meeting the memory and delay constraints typical of streaming contexts. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive ''learning rate'' that is responsible for balancing the extent to which the model retains its previous parameters or adapts to new observations. Experimental results on stationary and evolving synthetic data and two video data sets, TUM Assistive Kitchen and collated Weizmann, show a remarkable performance in terms of segmentation and classification, particularly for sequences from evolutionary distributions and/or those containing previously unseen classes.

  8. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  9. Tibetan Microblog Emotional Analysis Based on Sequential Model in Online Social Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lirong Qiu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of microblogs, selling and buying appear in online social platforms such as Sina Weibo and Wechat. Besides Mandarin, Tibetan language is also used to describe products and customers’ opinions. In this paper, we are interested in analyzing the emotions of Tibetan microblogs, which are helpful to understand opinions and product reviews for Tibetan customers. It is challenging since existing studies paid little attention to Tibetan language. Our key idea is to express Tibetan microblogs as vectors and then classify them. To express microblogs more fully, we select two kinds of features, which are sequential features and semantic features. In addition, our experimental results on the Sina Weibo dataset clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of feature selection and the efficiency of our classification method.

  10. Joint Data Assimilation and Parameter Calibration in on-line groundwater modelling using Sequential Monte Carlo techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramgraber, M.; Schirmer, M.

    2017-12-01

    As computational power grows and wireless sensor networks find their way into common practice, it becomes increasingly feasible to pursue on-line numerical groundwater modelling. The reconciliation of model predictions with sensor measurements often necessitates the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques, most prominently represented by the Ensemble Kalman Filter. In the pursuit of on-line predictions it seems advantageous to transcend the scope of pure data assimilation and incorporate on-line parameter calibration as well. Unfortunately, the interplay between shifting model parameters and transient states is non-trivial. Several recent publications (e.g. Chopin et al., 2013, Kantas et al., 2015) in the field of statistics discuss potential algorithms addressing this issue. However, most of these are computationally intractable for on-line application. In this study, we investigate to what extent compromises between mathematical rigour and computational restrictions can be made within the framework of on-line numerical modelling of groundwater. Preliminary studies are conducted in a synthetic setting, with the goal of transferring the conclusions drawn into application in a real-world setting. To this end, a wireless sensor network has been established in the valley aquifer around Fehraltorf, characterized by a highly dynamic groundwater system and located about 20 km to the East of Zürich, Switzerland. By providing continuous probabilistic estimates of the state and parameter distribution, a steady base for branched-off predictive scenario modelling could be established, providing water authorities with advanced tools for assessing the impact of groundwater management practices. Chopin, N., Jacob, P.E. and Papaspiliopoulos, O. (2013): SMC2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 75 (3), p. 397-426. Kantas, N., Doucet, A., Singh, S

  11. Direct methods and residue type specific isotope labeling in NMR structure determination and model-driven sequential assignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schedlbauer, Andreas; Auer, Renate; Ledolter, Karin; Tollinger, Martin; Kloiber, Karin; Lichtenecker, Roman; Ruedisser, Simon; Hommel, Ulrich; Schmid, Walther; Konrat, Robert; Kontaxis, Georg

    2008-01-01

    Direct methods in NMR based structure determination start from an unassigned ensemble of unconnected gaseous hydrogen atoms. Under favorable conditions they can produce low resolution structures of proteins. Usually a prohibitively large number of NOEs is required, to solve a protein structure ab-initio, but even with a much smaller set of distance restraints low resolution models can be obtained which resemble a protein fold. One problem is that at such low resolution and in the absence of a force field it is impossible to distinguish the correct protein fold from its mirror image. In a hybrid approach these ambiguous models have the potential to aid in the process of sequential backbone chemical shift assignment when 13 C β and 13 C' shifts are not available for sensitivity reasons. Regardless of the overall fold they enhance the information content of the NOE spectra. These, combined with residue specific labeling and minimal triple-resonance data using 13 C α connectivity can provide almost complete sequential assignment. Strategies for residue type specific labeling with customized isotope labeling patterns are of great advantage in this context. Furthermore, this approach is to some extent error-tolerant with respect to data incompleteness, limited precision of the peak picking, and structural errors caused by misassignment of NOEs

  12. Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorka Merino

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Global marine fisheries production has reached a maximum and may even be declining. Underlying this trend is a well-understood sequence of development, overexploitation, depletion and in some instances collapse of individual fish stocks, a pattern that can sequentially link geographically distant populations. Ineffective governance, economic considerations and climate impacts are often responsible for this sequence, although the relative contribution of each factor is contentious. In this paper we use a global bioeconomic model to explore the synergistic effects of climate variability, economic pressures and management measures in causing or avoiding this sequence. The model shows how a combination of climate-induced variability in the underlying fish population production, particular patterns of demand for fish products and inadequate management is capable of driving the world’s fisheries into development, overexploitation, collapse and recovery phases consistent with observations. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a sequential pattern of overexploitation can emerge as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional environmental fluctuations and a globalized trade system. This situation is avoidable through adaptive management measures that ensure the sustainability of regional production systems in the face of increasing global environmental change and markets. It is concluded that global management measures are needed to ensure that global food supply from marine products is optimized while protecting long-term ecosystem services across the world’s oceans.

  13. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  14. Sequential super-stereotypy of an instinctive fixed action pattern in hyper-dopaminergic mutant mice: a model of obsessive compulsive disorder and Tourette's

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houchard Kimberly R

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive sequential stereotypy of behavioral patterns (sequential super-stereotypy in Tourette's syndrome and obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD is thought to involve dysfunction in nigrostriatal dopamine systems. In sequential super-stereotypy, patients become trapped in overly rigid sequential patterns of action, language, or thought. Some instinctive behavioral patterns of animals, such as the syntactic grooming chain pattern of rodents, have sufficiently complex and stereotyped serial structure to detect potential production of overly-rigid sequential patterns. A syntactic grooming chain is a fixed action pattern that serially links up to 25 grooming movements into 4 predictable phases that follow 1 syntactic rule. New mutant mouse models allow gene-based manipulation of brain function relevant to sequential patterns, but no current animal model of spontaneous OCD-like behaviors has so far been reported to exhibit sequential super-stereotypy in the sense of a whole complex serial pattern that becomes stronger and excessively rigid. Here we used a hyper-dopaminergic mutant mouse to examine whether an OCD-like behavioral sequence in animals shows sequential super-stereotypy. Knockdown mutation of the dopamine transporter gene (DAT causes extracellular dopamine levels in the neostriatum of these adult mutant mice to rise to 170% of wild-type control levels. Results We found that the serial pattern of this instinctive behavioral sequence becomes strengthened as an entire entity in hyper-dopaminergic mutants, and more resistant to interruption. Hyper-dopaminergic mutant mice have stronger and more rigid syntactic grooming chain patterns than wild-type control mice. Mutants showed sequential super-stereotypy in the sense of having more stereotyped and predictable syntactic grooming sequences, and were also more likely to resist disruption of the pattern en route, by returning after a disruption to complete the pattern from the

  15. Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

    2008-09-01

    This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

  16. Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

  17. Three-dimensional classical-ensemble modeling of non-sequential double ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haan, S.L.; Breen, L.; Tannor, D.; Panfili, R.; Ho, Phay J.; Eberly, J.H.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: We have been using 1d ensembles of classical two-electron atoms to simulate helium atoms that are exposed to pulses of intense laser radiation. In this talk we discuss the challenges in setting up a 3d classical ensemble that can mimic the quantum ground state of helium. We then report studies in which each one of 500,000 two-electron trajectories is followed in 3d through a ten-cycle (25 fs) 780 nm laser pulse. We examine double-ionization yield for various intensities, finding the familiar knee structure. We consider the momentum spread of outcoming electrons in directions both parallel and perpendicular to the direction of laser polarization, and find results that are consistent with experiment. We examine individual trajectories and recollision processes that lead to double ionization, considering the best phases of the laser cycle for recollision events and looking at the possible time delay between recollision and emergence. We consider also the number of recollision events, and find that multiple recollisions are common in the classical ensemble. We investigate which collisional processes lead to various final electron momenta. We conclude with comments regarding the ability of classical mechanics to describe non-sequential double ionization, and a quick summary of similarities and differences between 1d and 3d classical double ionization using energy-trajectory comparisons. Refs. 3 (author)

  18. Sequential memory: Binding dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, Valentin; Gong, Xue; Rabinovich, Mikhail

    2015-10-01

    Temporal order memories are critical for everyday animal and human functioning. Experiments and our own experience show that the binding or association of various features of an event together and the maintaining of multimodality events in sequential order are the key components of any sequential memories—episodic, semantic, working, etc. We study a robustness of binding sequential dynamics based on our previously introduced model in the form of generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. In the phase space of the model, there exists a multi-dimensional binding heteroclinic network consisting of saddle equilibrium points and heteroclinic trajectories joining them. We prove here the robustness of the binding sequential dynamics, i.e., the feasibility phenomenon for coupled heteroclinic networks: for each collection of successive heteroclinic trajectories inside the unified networks, there is an open set of initial points such that the trajectory going through each of them follows the prescribed collection staying in a small neighborhood of it. We show also that the symbolic complexity function of the system restricted to this neighborhood is a polynomial of degree L - 1, where L is the number of modalities.

  19. Kinetic Modeling of Synthetic Wastewater Treatment by the Moving-bed Sequential Continuous-inflow Reactor (MSCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadreza Khani

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available It was the objective of the present study to conduct a kinetic modeling of a Moving-bed Sequential Continuous-inflow Reactor (MSCR and to develop its best prediction model. For this purpose, a MSCR consisting of an aerobic-anoxic pilot 50 l in volume and an anaerobic pilot of 20 l were prepared. The MSCR was fed a variety of organic loads and operated at different hydraulic retention times (HRT using synthetic wastewater at input COD concentrations of 300 to 1000 mg/L with HRTs of 2 to 5 h. Based on the results and the best system operation conditions, the highest COD removal (98.6% was obtained at COD=500 mg/L. The three well-known first order, second order, and Stover-Kincannon models were utilized for the kinetic modeling of the reactor. Based on the kinetic analysis of organic removal, the Stover-Kincannon model was chosen for the kinetic modeling of the moving bed biofilm. Given its advantageous properties in the statisfactory prediction of organic removal at different organic loads, this model is recommended for the design and operation of MSCR systems.

  20. Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheed, Mohammad Saad B; Gkritza, Konstantina; Zhang, Wei; Hans, Zachary

    2013-12-01

    Using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this paper estimates a mixed logit model to investigate the factors that affect crash severity outcomes in a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. These include crash-specific factors (such as manner of collision, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle actions), roadway and environmental conditions, location and time, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle attributes. The methodological approach allows the parameters to vary across observations as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations. Our results showed non-uniform effects of rear-end collisions on minor injury crashes, as well as of the roadway speed limit greater or equal to 55mph, the type of area (urban), the riding season (summer) and motorcyclist's gender on low severity crashes. We also found significant effects of the roadway surface condition, clear vision (not obscured by moving vehicles, trees, buildings, or other), light conditions, speed limit, and helmet use on severe injury outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Herckenrath

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Increasingly, ground-based and airborne geophysical data sets are used to inform groundwater models. Recent research focuses on establishing coupling relationships between geophysical and groundwater parameters. To fully exploit such information, this paper presents and compares different hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI. In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical relationship and its accuracy. Simulations for a synthetic groundwater model and TDEM data showed improved estimates for groundwater model parameters that were coupled to relatively well-resolved geophysical parameters when employing a high-quality petrophysical relationship. Compared to a SHI these improvements were insignificant and geophysical parameter estimates became slightly worse. When employing a low-quality petrophysical relationship, groundwater model parameters improved less for both the SHI and JHI, where the SHI performed relatively better. When comparing a SHI and JHI for a real-world groundwater model and ERT data, differences in parameter estimates were small. For both cases investigated in this paper, the SHI seems favorable, taking into account parameter error, data fit and the complexity of implementing a JHI in combination with its larger computational burden.

  3. Sequential change in T2* values of cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat model of knee osteoarthritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huei Tsai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is an emerging interest in using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI T2* measurement for the evaluation of degenerative cartilage in osteoarthritis (OA. However, relatively few studies have addressed OA-related changes in adjacent knee structures. This study used MRI T2* measurement to investigate sequential changes in knee cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat OA model induced by anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLX. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighteen male Sprague Dawley rats were randomly separated into three groups (n = 6 each group. Group 1 was the normal control group. Groups 2 and 3 received ACLX and sham-ACLX, respectively, of the right knee. T2* values were measured in the knee cartilage, the meniscus, and femoral subchondral bone marrow of all rats at 0, 4, 13, and 18 weeks after surgery. RESULTS: Cartilage T2* values were significantly higher at 4, 13, and 18 weeks postoperatively in rats of the ACLX group than in rats of the control and sham groups (p<0.001. In the ACLX group (compared to the sham and control groups, T2* values increased significantly first in the posterior horn of the medial meniscus at 4 weeks (p = 0.001, then in the anterior horn of the medial meniscus at 13 weeks (p<0.001, and began to increase significantly in the femoral subchondral bone marrow at 13 weeks (p = 0.043. CONCLUSION: Quantitative MR T2* measurements of OA-related tissues are feasible. Sequential change in T2* over time in cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow were documented. This information could be potentially useful for in vivo monitoring of disease progression.

  4. Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

  5. Sequential optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model constrained by multiple satellite based products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Nemani, R. R.

    2012-12-01

    Various satellite-based spatial products such as evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are now produced by integration of ground and satellite observations. Effective use of these multiple satellite-based products in terrestrial biosphere models is an important step toward better understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, due to the complexity of terrestrial biosphere models with large number of model parameters, the application of these spatial data sets in terrestrial biosphere models is difficult. In this study, we established an effective but simple framework to refine a terrestrial biosphere model, Biome-BGC, using multiple satellite-based products as constraints. We tested the framework in the monsoon Asia region covered by AsiaFlux observations. The framework is based on the hierarchical analysis (Wang et al. 2009) with model parameter optimization constrained by satellite-based spatial data. The Biome-BGC model is separated into several tiers to minimize the freedom of model parameter selections and maximize the independency from the whole model. For example, the snow sub-model is first optimized using MODIS snow cover product, followed by soil water sub-model optimized by satellite-based ET (estimated by an empirical upscaling method; Support Vector Regression (SVR) method; Yang et al. 2007), photosynthesis model optimized by satellite-based GPP (based on SVR method), and respiration and residual carbon cycle models optimized by biomass data. As a result of initial assessment, we found that most of default sub-models (e.g. snow, water cycle and carbon cycle) showed large deviations from remote sensing observations. However, these biases were removed by applying the proposed framework. For example, gross primary productivities were initially underestimated in boreal and temperate forest and overestimated in tropical forests. However, the parameter optimization scheme successfully reduced these biases. Our analysis

  6. Modeling of Activated Sludge Process Using Sequential Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahsa Vajedi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS has been applied to model activated sludge wastewater treatment process of Mobin petrochemical company. The correlation coefficients between the input variables and the output variable were calculated to determine the input with the highest influence on the output (the quality of the outlet flow in order to compare three neuro-fuzzy structures with different number of parameters. The predictions of the neuro-fuzzy models were compared with those of multilayer artificial neural network models with similar structure. The comparison indicated that both methods resulted in flexible, robust and effective models for the activated sludge system. Moreover, the root mean square of the error for neuro-fuzzy and neural network models were 5.14 and 6.59, respectively, which means the former is the superior method.

  7. Topology optimization of induction heating model using sequential linear programming based on move limit with adaptive relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Hiroshi; Kanda, Yutaro; Okamoto, Yoshifumi; Hirono, Kazuki; Hoshino, Reona; Wakao, Shinji; Tsuburaya, Tomonori

    2017-12-01

    It is very important to design electrical machineries with high efficiency from the point of view of saving energy. Therefore, topology optimization (TO) is occasionally used as a design method for improving the performance of electrical machinery under the reasonable constraints. Because TO can achieve a design with much higher degree of freedom in terms of structure, there is a possibility for deriving the novel structure which would be quite different from the conventional structure. In this paper, topology optimization using sequential linear programming using move limit based on adaptive relaxation is applied to two models. The magnetic shielding, in which there are many local minima, is firstly employed as firstly benchmarking for the performance evaluation among several mathematical programming methods. Secondly, induction heating model is defined in 2-D axisymmetric field. In this model, the magnetic energy stored in the magnetic body is maximized under the constraint on the volume of magnetic body. Furthermore, the influence of the location of the design domain on the solutions is investigated.

  8. The economic, environmental and public health impacts of new power plants: a sequential inter industry model integrated with GIS data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avelino, Andre F.T.; Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.; Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FEA/USP), SE (Brazil). Fac. de Administracao e Contabilidade

    2010-07-01

    The electrical sector is responsible for a considerable amount of greenhouse gases emissions worldwide, but also the one in which modern society depends the most for maintenance of quality of life as well as the functioning of economic and social activities. Invariably, even CO2 emission-free power plants have some indirect environmental impacts due to the economic effects they produce during their life cycle (construction, O and M and decommissioning). Thus, sustainability issues should be always considered in energy planning, by evaluating the balance of positive/negative externalities on different areas of the country. This study aims to introduce a social-environmental economic model, based on a Regional Sequential Inter industry Model (SIM) integrated with geoprocessing data, in order to identify economic, pollution and public health impacts in state level for energy planning analysis. The model is based on the Impact Pathway Approach Methodology, using geoprocessing to locate social-environmental variables for dispersion and health evaluations. The final goal is to provide an auxiliary tool for policy makers to assess energy planning scenarios in Brazil. (author)

  9. Model Predictive Engine Air-Ratio Control Using Online Sequential Relevance Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang-cheong Wong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Engine power, brake-specific fuel consumption, and emissions relate closely to air ratio (i.e., lambda among all the engine variables. An accurate and adaptive model for lambda prediction is essential to effective lambda control for long term. This paper utilizes an emerging technique, relevance vector machine (RVM, to build a reliable time-dependent lambda model which can be continually updated whenever a sample is added to, or removed from, the estimated lambda model. The paper also presents a new model predictive control (MPC algorithm for air-ratio regulation based on RVM. This study shows that the accuracy, training, and updating time of the RVM model are superior to the latest modelling methods, such as diagonal recurrent neural network (DRNN and decremental least-squares support vector machine (DLSSVM. Moreover, the control algorithm has been implemented on a real car to test. Experimental results reveal that the control performance of the proposed relevance vector machine model predictive controller (RVMMPC is also superior to DRNNMPC, support vector machine-based MPC, and conventional proportional-integral (PI controller in production cars. Therefore, the proposed RVMMPC is a promising scheme to replace conventional PI controller for engine air-ratio control.

  10. An Efficient Constraint Boundary Sampling Method for Sequential RBDO Using Kriging Surrogate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jihoon; Jang, Junyong; Kim, Shinyu; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Sugil; Kim, Hyung Woo; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) requires a high computational cost owing to its reliability analysis. A surrogate model is introduced to reduce the computational cost in RBDO. The accuracy of the reliability depends on the accuracy of the surrogate model of constraint boundaries in the surrogated-model-based RBDO. In earlier researches, constraint boundary sampling (CBS) was proposed to approximate accurately the boundaries of constraints by locating sample points on the boundaries of constraints. However, because CBS uses sample points on all constraint boundaries, it creates superfluous sample points. In this paper, efficient constraint boundary sampling (ECBS) is proposed to enhance the efficiency of CBS. ECBS uses the statistical information of a kriging surrogate model to locate sample points on or near the RBDO solution. The efficiency of ECBS is verified by mathematical examples.

  11. Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

    KAUST Repository

    Khaki, M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J.; Forootan, E.; van Dijk, A.; Schumacher, M.; Pattiaratchi, C.

    2017-01-01

    The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques

  12. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran-Duy, An; Boonen, Annelies; van de Laar, Mart A F J; Franke, Angelinus C; Severens, Johan L

    2011-12-01

    To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug efficacy was modelled as changes in disease activity (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI)) and functional status (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI)), which were linked to costs and health utility using statistical models fitted based on an observational AS cohort. Published clinical data were used to estimate drug efficacy and time to events. Two strategies were compared: (1) five available non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (strategy 1) and (2) same as strategy 1 plus two tumour necrosis factor α inhibitors (strategy 2). 13,000 patients were followed up individually until death. For probability sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1000 sets of parameters sampled from the appropriate probability distributions. The models successfully generated valid data on treatments, BASDAI, BASFI, utility, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs at time points with intervals of 1-3 months during the simulation length of 70 years. Incremental cost per QALY gained in strategy 2 compared with strategy 1 was €35,186. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000, it was 99.9% certain that strategy 2 was cost-effective. The modelling framework provides great flexibility to implement complex algorithms representing treatment selection, disease progression and changes in costs and utilities over time of patients with AS. Results obtained from the simulation are plausible.

  13. Effectiveness of maritime safety control in different navigation zones using a spatial sequential DEA model: Yangtze River case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Jinfen; Savan, Emanuel Emil; Yan, Xinping

    2015-08-01

    This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of maritime safety control from the perspective of safety level along the Yangtze River with special considerations for navigational environments. The influencing variables of maritime safety are reviewed, including ship condition, maritime regulatory system, human reliability and navigational environment. Because the former three variables are generally assumed to be of the same level of safety, this paper focuses on studying the impact of navigational environments on the level of safety in different waterways. An improved data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is proposed by treating the navigational environment factors as inputs and ship accident data as outputs. Moreover, because the traditional DEA model cannot provide an overall ranking of different decision making units (DMUs), the spatial sequential frontiers and grey relational analysis are incorporated into the DEA model to facilitate a refined assessment. Based on the empirical study results, the proposed model is able to solve the problem of information missing in the prior models and evaluate the level of safety with a better accuracy. The results of the proposed DEA model are further compared with an evidential reasoning (ER) method, which has been widely used for level of safety evaluations. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to better understand the relationship between the variation of navigational environments and level of safety. The sensitivity analysis shows that the level of safety varies in terms of traffic flow. It indicates that appropriate traffic control measures should be adopted for different waterways to improve their safety. This paper presents a practical method of conducting maritime level of safety assessments under dynamic navigational environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A dynamic general disequilibrium model of a sequential monetary production economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raberto, Marco; Teglio, Andrea; Cincotti, Silvano

    2006-01-01

    A discrete, deterministic, economic model, based on the framework of non-Walrasian or disequilibrium economics, is presented. The main feature of this approach is the presence of non-clearing markets, where not all demands and supplies are satisfied and some agents may be rationed. The model is characterized by three agents (i.e., a representative firm, a representative consumer, and a central bank), three commodities (i.e., goods, labour and money, each homogeneous) and three markets for their exchange. The imbalance between demand and supply in each market determines the dynamics of price, nominal wage and nominal interest rate. The central bank provides the money supply according to an operating target interest rate that is fixed accordingly to Taylor's rule. The model has been studied by means of computer simulations. Results pointed out the presence of business cycles that can be controlled by proper policies of the central bank

  15. Sequential Monte Carlo filter for state estimation of LiFePO4 batteries based on an online updated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiahao; Klee Barillas, Joaquin; Guenther, Clemens; Danzer, Michael A.

    2014-02-01

    Battery state monitoring is one of the key techniques in battery management systems e.g. in electric vehicles. An accurate estimation can help to improve the system performance and to prolong the battery remaining useful life. Main challenges for the state estimation for LiFePO4 batteries are the flat characteristic of open-circuit-voltage over battery state of charge (SOC) and the existence of hysteresis phenomena. Classical estimation approaches like Kalman filtering show limitations to handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian error distribution problems. In addition, uncertainties in the battery model parameters must be taken into account to describe the battery degradation. In this paper, a novel model-based method combining a Sequential Monte Carlo filter with adaptive control to determine the cell SOC and its electric impedance is presented. The applicability of this dual estimator is verified using measurement data acquired from a commercial LiFePO4 cell. Due to a better handling of the hysteresis problem, results show the benefits of the proposed method against the estimation with an Extended Kalman filter.

  16. Effect of anaerobic digestion on sequential pyrolysis kinetics of organic solid wastes using thermogravimetric analysis and distributed activation energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaowei; Mei, Qingqing; Dai, Xiaohu; Ding, Guoji

    2017-03-01

    Thermogravimetric analysis, Gaussian-fit-peak model (GFPM), and distributed activation energy model (DAEM) were firstly used to explore the effect of anaerobic digestion on sequential pyrolysis kinetic of four organic solid wastes (OSW). Results showed that the OSW weight loss mainly occurred in the second pyrolysis stage relating to organic matter decomposition. Compared with raw substrate, the weight loss of corresponding digestate was lower in the range of 180-550°C, but was higher in 550-900°C. GFPM analysis revealed that organic components volatized at peak temperatures of 188-263, 373-401 and 420-462°C had a faster degradation rate than those at 274-327°C during anaerobic digestion. DAEM analysis showed that anaerobic digestion had discrepant effects on activation energy for four OSW pyrolysis, possibly because of their different organic composition. It requires further investigation for the special organic matter, i.e., protein-like and carbohydrate-like groups, to confirm the assumption. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Fully Kinetic Model of Sequential Reductive Dechlorination in Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguerra, Flavio; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2011-01-01

    experiments of complete trichloroethene (TCE) degradation in natural sediments. Global sensitivity analysis was performed using the Morris method and Sobol sensitivity indices to identify the most influential model parameters. Results show that the sulfate concentration and fermentation kinetics are the most...

  18. A model of type 2 diabetes in the guinea pig using sequential diet-induced glucose intolerance and streptozotocin treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackart, David F.; Richardson, Michael A.; DiLisio, James E.; Pulford, Bruce; Basaraba, Randall J.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among noncommunicable diseases, and additional animal models that more closely replicate the pathogenesis of human type 2 diabetes are needed. The goal of this study was to develop a model of type 2 diabetes in guinea pigs, in which diet-induced glucose intolerance precedes β-cell cytotoxicity, two processes that are crucial to the development of human type 2 diabetes. Guinea pigs developed impaired glucose tolerance after 8 weeks of feeding on a high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet, as determined by oral glucose challenge. Diet-induced glucose intolerance was accompanied by β-cell hyperplasia, compensatory hyperinsulinemia, and dyslipidemia with hepatocellular steatosis. Streptozotocin (STZ) treatment alone was ineffective at inducing diabetic hyperglycemia in guinea pigs, which failed to develop sustained glucose intolerance or fasting hyperglycemia and returned to euglycemia within 21 days after treatment. However, when high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet-fed guinea pigs were treated with STZ, glucose intolerance and fasting hyperglycemia persisted beyond 21 days post-STZ treatment. Guinea pigs with diet-induced glucose intolerance subsequently treated with STZ demonstrated an insulin-secretory capacity consistent with insulin-independent diabetes. This insulin-independent state was confirmed by response to oral antihyperglycemic drugs, metformin and glipizide, which resolved glucose intolerance and extended survival compared with guinea pigs with uncontrolled diabetes. In this study, we have developed a model of sequential glucose intolerance and β-cell loss, through high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet and extensive optimization of STZ treatment in the guinea pig, which closely resembles human type 2 diabetes. This model will prove useful in the study of insulin-independent diabetes pathogenesis with or without comorbidities, where the guinea pig serves as a relevant model species. PMID:28093504

  19. A model of type 2 diabetes in the guinea pig using sequential diet-induced glucose intolerance and streptozotocin treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podell, Brendan K; Ackart, David F; Richardson, Michael A; DiLisio, James E; Pulford, Bruce; Basaraba, Randall J

    2017-02-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among noncommunicable diseases, and additional animal models that more closely replicate the pathogenesis of human type 2 diabetes are needed. The goal of this study was to develop a model of type 2 diabetes in guinea pigs, in which diet-induced glucose intolerance precedes β-cell cytotoxicity, two processes that are crucial to the development of human type 2 diabetes. Guinea pigs developed impaired glucose tolerance after 8 weeks of feeding on a high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet, as determined by oral glucose challenge. Diet-induced glucose intolerance was accompanied by β-cell hyperplasia, compensatory hyperinsulinemia, and dyslipidemia with hepatocellular steatosis. Streptozotocin (STZ) treatment alone was ineffective at inducing diabetic hyperglycemia in guinea pigs, which failed to develop sustained glucose intolerance or fasting hyperglycemia and returned to euglycemia within 21 days after treatment. However, when high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet-fed guinea pigs were treated with STZ, glucose intolerance and fasting hyperglycemia persisted beyond 21 days post-STZ treatment. Guinea pigs with diet-induced glucose intolerance subsequently treated with STZ demonstrated an insulin-secretory capacity consistent with insulin-independent diabetes. This insulin-independent state was confirmed by response to oral antihyperglycemic drugs, metformin and glipizide, which resolved glucose intolerance and extended survival compared with guinea pigs with uncontrolled diabetes. In this study, we have developed a model of sequential glucose intolerance and β-cell loss, through high-fat, high-carbohydrate diet and extensive optimization of STZ treatment in the guinea pig, which closely resembles human type 2 diabetes. This model will prove useful in the study of insulin-independent diabetes pathogenesis with or without comorbidities, where the guinea pig serves as a relevant model species. © 2017. Published by

  20. Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutonary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2012-01-01

    This note shows, by means of two simple, three-strategy games, the existence of stable periodic orbits and of multiple, interior steady states in a smooth version of the Best-Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and

  1. Multiple steady states, limit cycles and chaotic attractors in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates, by means of simple, three and four strategy games, the occurrence of periodic and chaotic behaviour in a smooth version of the Best Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and thus, stable limit

  2. Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewaele, Hélène; Munier, Simon; Albergel, Clément; Planque, Carole; Laanaia, Nabil; Carrer, Dominique; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2017-09-01

    Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

  3. A Data-Driven Method for Selecting Optimal Models Based on Graphical Visualisation of Differences in Sequentially Fitted ROC Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K S Mwitondi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Differences in modelling techniques and model performance assessments typically impinge on the quality of knowledge extraction from data. We propose an algorithm for determining optimal patterns in data by separately training and testing three decision tree models in the Pima Indians Diabetes and the Bupa Liver Disorders datasets. Model performance is assessed using ROC curves and the Youden Index. Moving differences between sequential fitted parameters are then extracted, and their respective probability density estimations are used to track their variability using an iterative graphical data visualisation technique developed for this purpose. Our results show that the proposed strategy separates the groups more robustly than the plain ROC/Youden approach, eliminates obscurity, and minimizes over-fitting. Further, the algorithm can easily be understood by non-specialists and demonstrates multi-disciplinary compliance.

  4. Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajendra K Singh

    Full Text Available Lymphatic filariasis (LF has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.Biological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.Temporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will

  5. Predictive modelling of survival and length of stay in critically ill patients using sequential organ failure scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houthooft, Rein; Ruyssinck, Joeri; van der Herten, Joachim; Stijven, Sean; Couckuyt, Ivo; Gadeyne, Bram; Ongenae, Femke; Colpaert, Kirsten; Decruyenaere, Johan; Dhaene, Tom; De Turck, Filip

    2015-03-01

    The length of stay of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is an indication of patient ICU resource usage and varies considerably. Planning of postoperative ICU admissions is important as ICUs often have no nonoccupied beds available. Estimation of the ICU bed availability for the next coming days is entirely based on clinical judgement by intensivists and therefore too inaccurate. For this reason, predictive models have much potential for improving planning for ICU patient admission. Our goal is to develop and optimize models for patient survival and ICU length of stay (LOS) based on monitored ICU patient data. Furthermore, these models are compared on their use of sequential organ failure (SOFA) scores as well as underlying raw data as input features. Different machine learning techniques are trained, using a 14,480 patient dataset, both on SOFA scores as well as their underlying raw data values from the first five days after admission, in order to predict (i) the patient LOS, and (ii) the patient mortality. Furthermore, to help physicians in assessing the prediction credibility, a probabilistic model is tailored to the output of our best-performing model, assigning a belief to each patient status prediction. A two-by-two grid is built, using the classification outputs of the mortality and prolonged stay predictors to improve the patient LOS regression models. For predicting patient mortality and a prolonged stay, the best performing model is a support vector machine (SVM) with GA,D=65.9% (area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77) and GS,L=73.2% (AUC of 0.82). In terms of LOS regression, the best performing model is support vector regression, achieving a mean absolute error of 1.79 days and a median absolute error of 1.22 days for those patients surviving a nonprolonged stay. Using a classification grid based on the predicted patient mortality and prolonged stay, allows more accurate modeling of the patient LOS. The detailed models allow to support

  6. Effects of Combined Simultaneous and Sequential Endostar and Cisplatin Treatment in a Mice Model of Gastric Cancer Peritoneal Metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Jia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Aimed to study the effects of endostar and cisplatin using an in vivo imaging system (IVIS in a model of peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer. Methods. NUGC-4 gastric cancer cells transfected with luciferase gene (NUGC-4-Luc were injected i.p. into nude mice. One week later, mice were randomly injected i.p.: group 1, cisplatin (d1–3 + endostar (d4–7; group 2, endostar (d1–4 + cisplatin (d5–7; group 3, endostar + cisplatin d1, 4, and 7; group 4, saline for two weeks. One week after the final administration, mice were sacrificed. Bioluminescent data, microvessel density (MVD, and lymphatic vessel density (LVD were analyzed. Results. Among the four groups, there were no significant differences in the weights and in the number of cancer cell photons on days 1 and 8 (P>0.05. On day 15, the numbers in groups 3 and 1 were less than that in group 2 (P0.05 or in LVD number among the four groups (P>0.05. Conclusions. IVIS® was more useful than weight, volume of ascites, and number of peritoneal nodules. The simultaneous group was superior to sequential groups in killing cancer cells and inhibiting vascular endothelium. Cisplatin-endostar was superior to endostar-cisplatin in killing cancer cells, while the latter in inhibiting peritoneal vascular endothelium.

  7. Effects of Combined Simultaneous and Sequential Endostar and Cisplatin Treatment in a Mice Model of Gastric Cancer Peritoneal Metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Lin; Ren, Shuguang; Li, Tao; Wu, Jianing; Zhou, Xinliang; Zhang, Yan; Wu, Jianhua; Liu, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Objective . Aimed to study the effects of endostar and cisplatin using an in vivo imaging system (IVIS) in a model of peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer. Methods . NUGC-4 gastric cancer cells transfected with luciferase gene (NUGC-4-Luc) were injected i.p. into nude mice. One week later, mice were randomly injected i.p.: group 1, cisplatin (d1-3) + endostar (d4-7); group 2, endostar (d1-4) + cisplatin (d5-7); group 3, endostar + cisplatin d1, 4, and 7; group 4, saline for two weeks. One week after the final administration, mice were sacrificed. Bioluminescent data, microvessel density (MVD), and lymphatic vessel density (LVD) were analyzed. Results . Among the four groups, there were no significant differences in the weights and in the number of cancer cell photons on days 1 and 8 ( P > 0.05). On day 15, the numbers in groups 3 and 1 were less than that in group 2 ( P 0.05) or in LVD number among the four groups ( P > 0.05). Conclusions . IVIS® was more useful than weight, volume of ascites, and number of peritoneal nodules. The simultaneous group was superior to sequential groups in killing cancer cells and inhibiting vascular endothelium. Cisplatin-endostar was superior to endostar-cisplatin in killing cancer cells, while the latter in inhibiting peritoneal vascular endothelium.

  8. Dual Binding Site and Selective Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors Derived from Integrated Pharmacophore Models and Sequential Virtual Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikhar Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have employed in silico methodology combining double pharmacophore based screening, molecular docking, and ADME/T filtering to identify dual binding site acetylcholinesterase inhibitors that can preferentially inhibit acetylcholinesterase and simultaneously inhibit the butyrylcholinesterase also but in the lesser extent than acetylcholinesterase. 3D-pharmacophore models of AChE and BuChE enzyme inhibitors have been developed from xanthostigmine derivatives through HypoGen and validated using test set, Fischer’s randomization technique. The best acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase inhibitors pharmacophore hypotheses Hypo1_A and Hypo1_B, with high correlation coefficient of 0.96 and 0.94, respectively, were used as 3D query for screening the Zinc database. The screened hits were then subjected to the ADME/T and molecular docking study to prioritise the compounds. Finally, 18 compounds were identified as potential leads against AChE enzyme, showing good predicted activities and promising ADME/T properties.

  9. CHIRP-Like Signals: Estimation, Detection and Processing A Sequential Model-Based Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J. V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-08-04

    Chirp signals have evolved primarily from radar/sonar signal processing applications specifically attempting to estimate the location of a target in surveillance/tracking volume. The chirp, which is essentially a sinusoidal signal whose phase changes instantaneously at each time sample, has an interesting property in that its correlation approximates an impulse function. It is well-known that a matched-filter detector in radar/sonar estimates the target range by cross-correlating a replicant of the transmitted chirp with the measurement data reflected from the target back to the radar/sonar receiver yielding a maximum peak corresponding to the echo time and therefore enabling the desired range estimate. In this application, we perform the same operation as a radar or sonar system, that is, we transmit a “chirp-like pulse” into the target medium and attempt to first detect its presence and second estimate its location or range. Our problem is complicated by the presence of disturbance signals from surrounding broadcast stations as well as extraneous sources of interference in our frequency bands and of course the ever present random noise from instrumentation. First, we discuss the chirp signal itself and illustrate its inherent properties and then develop a model-based processing scheme enabling both the detection and estimation of the signal from noisy measurement data.

  10. Vehicle speed detection based on gaussian mixture model using sequential of images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyono, Budi; Ratna Sulistyaningrum, Dwi; Soetrisno; Fajriyah, Farah; Wahyu Wicaksono, Danang

    2017-09-01

    Intelligent Transportation System is one of the important components in the development of smart cities. Detection of vehicle speed on the highway is supporting the management of traffic engineering. The purpose of this study is to detect the speed of the moving vehicles using digital image processing. Our approach is as follows: The inputs are a sequence of frames, frame rate (fps) and ROI. The steps are following: First we separate foreground and background using Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in each frames. Then in each frame, we calculate the location of object and its centroid. Next we determine the speed by computing the movement of centroid in sequence of frames. In the calculation of speed, we only consider frames when the centroid is inside the predefined region of interest (ROI). Finally we transform the pixel displacement into a time unit of km/hour. Validation of the system is done by comparing the speed calculated manually and obtained by the system. The results of software testing can detect the speed of vehicles with the highest accuracy is 97.52% and the lowest accuracy is 77.41%. And the detection results of testing by using real video footage on the road is included with real speed of the vehicle.

  11. Seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: Modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolson, Craig; Berman, Matthew; West, Colin Thor; Kofinas, Gary P.; Griffith, Brad; Russell, Don; Dugan, Darcy

    2013-01-01

    Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

  12. Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Nicolson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

  13. FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRANSPORT MODE PREFERENCE FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MALAYSIA BY LOGIT METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALI AHMED MOHAMMED

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to examine the perceptions and preferences of students on choosing the type of transportation for their travels in university campus. This study focused on providing personal transport users road transport alternatives as a countermeasure aimed at shifting car users to other modes of transportation. Overall 456 questionnaires were conducted to develop a choice of transportation mode preferences. Consequently, Logit model and SPSS were used to identify the factors that affect the determination of the choice of transportation mode. Results indicated that by reducing travel time by 70% the amount of private cars users will be reduced by 84%, while reduction the travel cost was found to be highly improving the public modes of utilization. This study revealed positive aspects is needed to shift travellers from private modes to public. The positive aspect contributes to travel time and travel cost reduction, hence improving the services, whereby contributing to sustainability.

  14. Sequential application of ligand and structure based modeling approaches to index chemicals for their hH4R antagonism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Pappalardo

    Full Text Available The human histamine H4 receptor (hH4R, a member of the G-protein coupled receptors (GPCR family, is an increasingly attractive drug target. It plays a key role in many cell pathways and many hH4R ligands are studied for the treatment of several inflammatory, allergic and autoimmune disorders, as well as for analgesic activity. Due to the challenging difficulties in the experimental elucidation of hH4R structure, virtual screening campaigns are normally run on homology based models. However, a wealth of information about the chemical properties of GPCR ligands has also accumulated over the last few years and an appropriate combination of these ligand-based knowledge with structure-based molecular modeling studies emerges as a promising strategy for computer-assisted drug design. Here, two chemoinformatics techniques, the Intelligent Learning Engine (ILE and Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE approach, were used to index chemicals for their hH4R bioactivity. An application of the prediction model on external test set composed of more than 160 hH4R antagonists picked from the chEMBL database gave enrichment factor of 16.4. A virtual high throughput screening on ZINC database was carried out, picking ∼ 4000 chemicals highly indexed as H4R antagonists' candidates. Next, a series of 3D models of hH4R were generated by molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations performed in fully atomistic lipid membranes. The efficacy of the hH4R 3D models in discrimination between actives and non-actives were checked and the 3D model with the best performance was chosen for further docking studies performed on the focused library. The output of these docking studies was a consensus library of 11 highly active scored drug candidates. Our findings suggest that a sequential combination of ligand-based chemoinformatics approaches with structure-based ones has the potential to improve the success rate in discovering new biologically active GPCR drugs and

  15. Sequential application of ligand and structure based modeling approaches to index chemicals for their hH4R antagonism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappalardo, Matteo; Shachaf, Nir; Basile, Livia; Milardi, Danilo; Zeidan, Mouhammed; Raiyn, Jamal; Guccione, Salvatore; Rayan, Anwar

    2014-01-01

    The human histamine H4 receptor (hH4R), a member of the G-protein coupled receptors (GPCR) family, is an increasingly attractive drug target. It plays a key role in many cell pathways and many hH4R ligands are studied for the treatment of several inflammatory, allergic and autoimmune disorders, as well as for analgesic activity. Due to the challenging difficulties in the experimental elucidation of hH4R structure, virtual screening campaigns are normally run on homology based models. However, a wealth of information about the chemical properties of GPCR ligands has also accumulated over the last few years and an appropriate combination of these ligand-based knowledge with structure-based molecular modeling studies emerges as a promising strategy for computer-assisted drug design. Here, two chemoinformatics techniques, the Intelligent Learning Engine (ILE) and Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE) approach, were used to index chemicals for their hH4R bioactivity. An application of the prediction model on external test set composed of more than 160 hH4R antagonists picked from the chEMBL database gave enrichment factor of 16.4. A virtual high throughput screening on ZINC database was carried out, picking ∼ 4000 chemicals highly indexed as H4R antagonists' candidates. Next, a series of 3D models of hH4R were generated by molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations performed in fully atomistic lipid membranes. The efficacy of the hH4R 3D models in discrimination between actives and non-actives were checked and the 3D model with the best performance was chosen for further docking studies performed on the focused library. The output of these docking studies was a consensus library of 11 highly active scored drug candidates. Our findings suggest that a sequential combination of ligand-based chemoinformatics approaches with structure-based ones has the potential to improve the success rate in discovering new biologically active GPCR drugs and increase the

  16. A sequential vesicle pool model with a single release sensor and a ca(2+)-dependent priming catalyst effectively explains ca(2+)-dependent properties of neurosecretion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Alexander M; da Silva Pinheiro, Paulo César; Verhage, Matthijs

    2013-01-01

    identified. We here propose a Sequential Pool Model (SPM), assuming a novel Ca(2+)-dependent action: a Ca(2+)-dependent catalyst that accelerates both forward and reverse priming reactions. While both models account for fast fusion from the Readily-Releasable Pool (RRP) under control of synaptotagmin-1...... the simultaneous changes in release rate and amplitude seen when mutating the SNARE-complex. Finally, it can account for the loss of fast- and the persistence of slow release in the synaptotagmin-1 knockout by assuming that the RRP is depleted, leading to slow and Ca(2+)-dependent fusion from the NRP. We conclude...... that the elusive 'alternative Ca(2+) sensor' for slow release might be the upstream priming catalyst, and that a sequential model effectively explains Ca(2+)-dependent properties of secretion without assuming parallel pools or sensors....

  17. Sequential Management of Commercial Rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke Plantations in Central Amazonia: Seeking Sustainable Models for Essential Oil Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Medrado Krainovic

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke is an endangered tree that produces essential oil of high commercial value. However, technical-scientific knowledge about cultivation is scarce and studies are needed to examine the management viability. The current study evaluated rosewood aboveground biomass management, measuring the export of nutrients resulting from harvesting and testing sustainable management models. The crown of 36 rosewood trees were pruned and 108 trees cut at 50 cm above the soil in two regions in Central Amazonia. Post-harvest performance of sprouting shoots was evaluated and after, sprouting shoots were pruned so that the development of two, three and all shoots was permitted. Nutrient stock estimation was calculated as the product of mass and nutrient concentration, which allowed nutritional replacement to be estimated. The pruning facilitates regrowth by 40.11% of the initial mass while by cut regrow 1.45%. Chemical attributes of regrowth biomass differed significantly prior to management and regrowth had a significant correlation with the reserves in root tissues and with the pre -management status of the individual tree. Driving sprouts resulted in significantly larger growth increments and may provide a form of management that can viably be adopted. Biomass sequential management resulted in high nutrient exports and the amount of fertilizer needed for replenishment depended on the intensity and frequency of cropping. Compared with the cut of the tree, pruning the canopy reduces fertilizers that are required to replenish amount by 44%, decreasing to 26.37% in the second rotation. The generated knowledge contributes to this silvicultural practice as it becomes ecologically and economically viable.

  18. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pelak, Robert A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-09-11

    We present a Bayesian statistical methodology for identifying improvement in predictive simulations, including an analysis of the number of (presumably expensive) simulations that will need to be made in order to establish with a given level of confidence that an improvement has been observed. Our analysis assumes the ability to predict (or postdict) the same experiments with legacy and new simulation codes and uses a simple binomial model for the probability, {theta}, that, in an experiment chosen at random, the new code will provide a better prediction than the old. This model makes it possible to do statistical analysis with an absolute minimum of assumptions about the statistics of the quantities involved, at the price of discarding some potentially important information in the data. In particular, the analysis depends only on whether or not the new code predicts better than the old in any given experiment, and not on the magnitude of the improvement. We show how the posterior distribution for {theta} may be used, in a kind of Bayesian hypothesis testing, both to decide if an improvement has been observed and to quantify our confidence in that decision. We quantify the predictive probability that should be assigned, prior to taking any data, to the possibility of achieving a given level of confidence, as a function of sample size. We show how this predictive probability depends on the true value of {theta} and, in particular, how there will always be a region around {theta} = 1/2 where it is highly improbable that we will be able to identify an improvement in predictive capability, although the width of this region will shrink to zero as the sample size goes to infinity. We show how the posterior standard deviation may be used, as a kind of 'plan B metric' in the case that the analysis shows that {theta} is close to 1/2 and argue that such a plan B should generally be part of hypothesis testing. All the analysis presented in the paper is done with a

  19. Exploring the sequential lineup advantage using WITNESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsell, Charles A; Gronlund, Scott D; Carlson, Curt A

    2010-12-01

    Advocates claim that the sequential lineup is an improvement over simultaneous lineup procedures, but no formal (quantitatively specified) explanation exists for why it is better. The computational model WITNESS (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629-654, 2003) was used to develop theoretical explanations for the sequential lineup advantage. In its current form, WITNESS produced a sequential advantage only by pairing conservative sequential choosing with liberal simultaneous choosing. However, this combination failed to approximate four extant experiments that exhibited large sequential advantages. Two of these experiments became the focus of our efforts because the data were uncontaminated by likely suspect position effects. Decision-based and memory-based modifications to WITNESS approximated the data and produced a sequential advantage. The next step is to evaluate the proposed explanations and modify public policy recommendations accordingly.

  20. Simulation modeling analysis of sequential relations among therapeutic alliance, symptoms, and adherence to child-centered play therapy between a child with autism spectrum disorder and two therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Geoff; Chung, Hyewon; Fischel, Leah; Athey-Lloyd, Laura

    2017-07-01

    This study examined the sequential relations among three pertinent variables in child psychotherapy: therapeutic alliance (TA) (including ruptures and repairs), autism symptoms, and adherence to child-centered play therapy (CCPT) process. A 2-year CCPT of a 6-year-old Caucasian boy diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder was conducted weekly with two doctoral-student therapists, working consecutively for 1 year each, in a university-based community mental-health clinic. Sessions were video-recorded and coded using the Child Psychotherapy Process Q-Set (CPQ), a measure of the TA, and an autism symptom measure. Sequential relations among these variables were examined using simulation modeling analysis (SMA). In Therapist 1's treatment, unexpectedly, autism symptoms decreased three sessions after a rupture occurred in the therapeutic dyad. In Therapist 2's treatment, adherence to CCPT process increased 2 weeks after a repair occurred in the therapeutic dyad. The TA decreased 1 week after autism symptoms increased. Finally, adherence to CCPT process decreased 1 week after autism symptoms increased. The authors concluded that (1) sequential relations differ by therapist even though the child remains constant, (2) therapeutic ruptures can have an unexpected effect on autism symptoms, and (3) changes in autism symptoms can precede as well as follow changes in process variables.

  1. Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, Barbara; Mauw, Sjouke; Radomirović, Sasa; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2015-01-01

    We provide the first formal foundation of SAND attack trees which are a popular extension of the well-known attack trees. The SAND at- tack tree formalism increases the expressivity of attack trees by intro- ducing the sequential conjunctive operator SAND. This operator enables the modeling of

  2. Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeison Díaz-Mateus

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

  3. UN MODELO LOGIT PARA LA FRAGILIDAD DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO VENEZOLANO DENTRO DEL CONTEXTO DE LOS PROCESOS DE FUSIÓN E INTERVENCIÓN | A LOGIT APPROACH OF THE VENEZUELAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MERGER AND INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Rubicundo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Venezuela there have been more than 30 mergers, after the approval of the Banking Act in 1999, since from 103 institutions, the financial system closed the year 2013 with 35 brokerage firms, which represents a decrease of 66% due to 20 coalitions, 30 transformations and 18 settlements. Therefore, an analysis is proposed of the current economic situation of the financial system in the context of mergers and interventions, considering internal and external factors according to the constituted capital. The study was based on information from 37 private capital institutions and 04 public institutions, between January 2009 and December 2013. The previous analysis for privately held banks, showed that these institutions have a 78.40% chance of not incurring in situations of fragility; while the State capital banks have 83.30% of surviving in the market. As for the estimated logit models, it was found that the liquidity ratio, ROE, management index and inflation, are components that push towards a fragile situation for privately held banks, with a probability forecast of fragility. With regard to the state capital banks, this situation is explained by a 62.50% equity index, ROE, and inflation. A probability of stability for these banks is expected. The joint model forecasted a probability of a stable financial system for the coming months.

  4. A comparison of sequential and information-based methods for determining the co-integration rank in heteroskedastic VAR MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Angelis, Luca De; Rahbek, Anders

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we investigate the behaviour of a number of methods for estimating the co-integration rank in VAR systems characterized by heteroskedastic innovation processes. In particular, we compare the efficacy of the most widely used information criteria, such as Akaike Information Criterion....... The relative finite-sample properties of the different methods are investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. For the simulation DGPs considered in the analysis, we find that the BIC-based procedure and the bootstrap sequential test procedure deliver the best overall performance in terms......-based method to over-estimate the co-integration rank in relatively small sample sizes....

  5. The structure and evolution of galacto-detonation waves - Some analytic results in sequential star formation models of spiral galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, L. L.; Rybicki, G. B.

    1982-01-01

    Waves of star formation in a uniform, differentially rotating disk galaxy are treated analytically as a propagating detonation wave front. It is shown, that if single solitary waves could be excited, they would evolve asymptotically to one of two stable spiral forms, each of which rotates with a fixed pattern speed. Simple numerical solutions confirm these results. However, the pattern of waves that develop naturally from an initially localized disturbance is more complex and dies out within a few rotation periods. These results suggest a conclusive observational test for deciding whether sequential star formation is an important determinant of spiral structure in some class of galaxies.

  6. Effects of a combined parent-student alcohol prevention program on intermediate factors and adolescents' drinking behavior: A sequential mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koning, Ina M; Maric, Marija; MacKinnon, David; Vollebergh, Wilma A M

    2015-08-01

    Previous work revealed that the combined parent-student alcohol prevention program (PAS) effectively postponed alcohol initiation through its hypothesized intermediate factors: increase in strict parental rule setting and adolescents' self-control (Koning, van den Eijnden, Verdurmen, Engels, & Vollebergh, 2011). This study examines whether the parental strictness precedes an increase in adolescents' self-control by testing a sequential mediation model. A cluster randomized trial including 3,245 Dutch early adolescents (M age = 12.68, SD = 0.50) and their parents randomized over 4 conditions: (1) parent intervention, (2) student intervention, (3) combined intervention, and (4) control group. Outcome measure was amount of weekly drinking measured at age 12 to 15; baseline assessment (T0) and 3 follow-up assessments (T1-T3). Main effects of the combined and parent intervention on weekly drinking at T3 were found. The effect of the combined intervention on weekly drinking (T3) was mediated via an increase in strict rule setting (T1) and adolescents' subsequent self-control (T2). In addition, the indirect effect of the combined intervention via rule setting (T1) was significant. No reciprocal sequential mediation (self-control at T1 prior to rules at T2) was found. The current study is 1 of the few studies reporting sequential mediation effects of youth intervention outcomes. It underscores the need of involving parents in youth alcohol prevention programs, and the need to target both parents and adolescents, so that change in parents' behavior enables change in their offspring. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Optimal Sequential Rules for Computer-Based Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Hans J.

    1998-01-01

    Formulates sequential rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in the context of computer-based instruction. Topics include Bayesian decision theory, threshold and linear-utility structure, psychometric model, optimal sequential number of test questions, and an empirical example of sequential instructional…

  8. Sequential charged particle reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hori, Jun-ichi; Ochiai, Kentaro; Sato, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Michinori; Nishitani, Takeo

    2004-01-01

    The effective cross sections for producing the sequential reaction products in F82H, pure vanadium and LiF with respect to the 14.9-MeV neutron were obtained and compared with the estimation ones. Since the sequential reactions depend on the secondary charged particles behavior, the effective cross sections are corresponding to the target nuclei and the material composition. The effective cross sections were also estimated by using the EAF-libraries and compared with the experimental ones. There were large discrepancies between estimated and experimental values. Additionally, we showed the contribution of the sequential reaction on the induced activity and dose rate in the boundary region with water. From the present study, it has been clarified that the sequential reactions are of great importance to evaluate the dose rates around the surface of cooling pipe and the activated corrosion products. (author)

  9. Application of sequential fragmentation/transport theory to deposits of 1723 and 1963-65 eruptions of Volcan Irazu, Costa Rica: positive dispersion case and fractal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenes, Jose; Alvarado, Guillermo E.

    2013-01-01

    The theory of Fragmentation and Sequential Transport (FST) was applied to the granulometric analyzes of the deposits from the eruptions of 1723 and 1963-65 of the Volcan Irazu. An appreciable number of cases of positive dispersion was showed, associated in the literature with aggregation processes. A new fractal dimension defined in research has shown to be the product of secondary fragmentation. The application of the new dimension is used in the analyses of the eruptions of 1723 and 1963-65. A fractal model of a volcanic activity is formulated for the first time. The Hurst coefficient and the exponent of the law of powers are incorporated. The existence of values of dissidence near zero have been indicators of an effusive process, as would be the lava pools. The results derived from the model were agreed with field observations. (author) [es

  10. Random sequential adsorption of cubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieśla, Michał; Kubala, Piotr

    2018-01-01

    Random packings built of cubes are studied numerically using a random sequential adsorption algorithm. To compare the obtained results with previous reports, three different models of cube orientation sampling were used. Also, three different cube-cube intersection algorithms were tested to find the most efficient one. The study focuses on the mean saturated packing fraction as well as kinetics of packing growth. Microstructural properties of packings were analyzed using density autocorrelation function.

  11. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  12. Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

  13. Using continuation-ratio logits to analyze the variation of the age composition of fish catches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2000-01-01

    Major sources of information for the estimation of the size of the fish stocks and the rate of their exploitation are samples from which the age composition of catches may be determined However, the age composition in the catches often varies as a result of several factors. Stratification...... of the sampling is desirable, because it leads to better estimates of the age composition, and the corresponding variances and covariances. The analysis is impeded by the fact that the response is ordered categorical. This paper introduces an easily applicable method to analyze such data. The method combines...... be applied separately to each level of the logits. The method is illustrated by the analysis of age-composition data collected from the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea in 1993. The significance of possible sources of variation is evaluated, and formulae for estimating the proportions of each age...

  14. How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

    2017-11-01

    Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Modelling and sequential simulation of multi-tubular metallic membrane and techno-economics of a hydrogen production process employing thin-layer membrane reactor

    KAUST Repository

    Shafiee, Alireza

    2016-09-24

    A theoretical model for multi-tubular palladium-based membrane is proposed in this paper and validated against experimental data for two different sized membrane modules that operate at high temperatures. The model is used in a sequential simulation format to describe and analyse pure hydrogen and hydrogen binary mixture separations, and then extended to simulate an industrial scale membrane unit. This model is used as a sub-routine within an ASPEN Plus model to simulate a membrane reactor in a steam reforming hydrogen production plant. A techno-economic analysis is then conducted using the validated model for a plant producing 300 TPD of hydrogen. The plant utilises a thin (2.5 μm) defect-free and selective layer (Pd75Ag25 alloy) membrane reactor. The economic sensitivity analysis results show usefulness in finding the optimum operating condition that achieves minimum hydrogen production cost at break-even point. A hydrogen production cost of 1.98 $/kg is estimated while the cost of the thin-layer selective membrane is found to constitute 29% of total process capital cost. These results indicate the competiveness of this thin-layer membrane process against conventional methods of hydrogen production. © 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC

  16. Sequential stochastic optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Cairoli, Renzo

    1996-01-01

    Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet

  17. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  18. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

  19. Sequential Dependencies in Driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doshi, Anup; Tran, Cuong; Wilder, Matthew H.; Mozer, Michael C.; Trivedi, Mohan M.

    2012-01-01

    The effect of recent experience on current behavior has been studied extensively in simple laboratory tasks. We explore the nature of sequential effects in the more naturalistic setting of automobile driving. Driving is a safety-critical task in which delayed response times may have severe consequences. Using a realistic driving simulator, we find…

  20. Mining compressing sequential problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, T.L.; Mörchen, F.; Fradkin, D.; Calders, T.G.K.

    2012-01-01

    Compression based pattern mining has been successfully applied to many data mining tasks. We propose an approach based on the minimum description length principle to extract sequential patterns that compress a database of sequences well. We show that mining compressing patterns is NP-Hard and

  1. Image Quality of 3rd Generation Spiral Cranial Dual-Source CT in Combination with an Advanced Model Iterative Reconstruction Technique: A Prospective Intra-Individual Comparison Study to Standard Sequential Cranial CT Using Identical Radiation Dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenz, Holger; Maros, Máté E; Meyer, Mathias; Förster, Alex; Haubenreisser, Holger; Kurth, Stefan; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Flohr, Thomas; Leidecker, Christianne; Groden, Christoph; Scharf, Johann; Henzler, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    To prospectively intra-individually compare image quality of a 3rd generation Dual-Source-CT (DSCT) spiral cranial CT (cCT) to a sequential 4-slice Multi-Slice-CT (MSCT) while maintaining identical intra-individual radiation dose levels. 35 patients, who had a non-contrast enhanced sequential cCT examination on a 4-slice MDCT within the past 12 months, underwent a spiral cCT scan on a 3rd generation DSCT. CTDIvol identical to initial 4-slice MDCT was applied. Data was reconstructed using filtered backward projection (FBP) and 3rd-generation iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithm at 5 different IR strength levels. Two neuroradiologists independently evaluated subjective image quality using a 4-point Likert-scale and objective image quality was assessed in white matter and nucleus caudatus with signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) being subsequently calculated. Subjective image quality of all spiral cCT datasets was rated significantly higher compared to the 4-slice MDCT sequential acquisitions (pspiral compared to sequential cCT datasets with mean SNR improvement of 61.65% (p*Bonferroni0.05spiral cCT with an advanced model IR technique significantly improves subjective and objective image quality compared to a standard sequential cCT acquisition acquired at identical dose levels.

  2. Charge and angular distributions as well as sequential decay and γ-ray emission in heavy ion collisions viewed in the light of the diffusion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moretto, L.G.

    1977-08-01

    The hierarchy of the collective relaxation times in heavy ion reactions is briefly reviewed. An improved diffusion model is introduced and applied to interpret the fragment Z and angular distributions for some typical reactions. The equilibrium in the neutron-to-proton ratio as well as the sharing of the excitation energy between fragments is studied by a coincidence method which leads to the measurement of the charge, mass and mean number of nucleons emitted by each fragment. The final destiny of the dissipative energy is determined by measuring the atomic number of two coincident fragments, thus obtaining the missing charge as a function of bombarding energy and the Q of the reaction. The sequential fission probability of the heavy recoil is established as a function of the Z and kinetic energy of the light partner. The out-of-plane angular distribution of the fission fragments is correlated with the fissionability and interpreted in terms of various sources of angular momentum misalignment. The γ-ray multiplicities and the γ-ray angular distributions associated with deep inelastic event are discussed in terms of the angular momentum transfer and in terms of the diffusion model

  3. Quantum Chemical Examination of the Sequential Halogen Incorporation Scheme for the Modeling of Speciation of I/Br/Cl-Containing Trihalomethanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chenyang; Li, Maodong; Han, Xuze; Yan, Mingquan

    2018-02-20

    The recently developed three-step ternary halogenation model interprets the incorporation of chlorine, bromine, and iodine ions into natural organic matter (NOM) and formation of iodine-, bromine-, and chlorine-containing trihalomethanes (THMs) based on the competition of iodine, bromine, and chlorine species at each node of the halogenation sequence. This competition is accounted for using the dimensionless ratios (denoted as γ) of kinetic rates of reactions of the initial attack sites or halogenated intermediates with chlorine, bromine, and iodine ions. However, correlations between the model predictions made and mechanistic aspects of the incorporation of halogen species need to be ascertained in more detail. In this study, quantum chemistry calculations were first used to probe the formation mechanism of 10 species of Cl-/Br-/I- THMs. The HOMO energy (E HOMO ) of each mono-, bi-, or trihalomethanes were calculated by B3LYP method in Gaussian 09 software. Linear correlations were found to exist between the logarithms of experimentally determined kinetic preference coefficients γ reported in prior research and, on the other hand, differences of E HOMO values between brominated/iodinated and chlorinated halomethanes. One notable exception from this trend was that observed for the incorporation of iodine into mono- and di-iodinated intermediates. These observations confirm the three-step halogen incorporation sequence and the factor γ in the statistical model. The combined use of quantum chemistry calculations and the ternary sequential halogenation model provides a new insight into the microscopic nature of NOM-halogen interactions and the trends seen in the behavior of γ factors incorporated in the THM speciation models.

  4. High resolution 2D numerical models from rift to break-up: Crustal hyper-extension, Margin asymmetry, Sequential faulting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sascha; Heine, Christian; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; Sobolev, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    Numerical modelling is a powerful tool to integrate a multitude of geological and geophysical data while addressing fundamental questions of passive margin formation such as the occurrence of crustal hyper-extension, (a-)symmetries between conjugate margin pairs, and the sometimes significant structural differences between adjacent margin segments. This study utilises knowledge gathered from two key examples of non-magmatic, asymmetric, conjugate margin pairs, i.e. Iberia-New Foundland and Southern Africa-Brazil, where many published seismic lines provide solid knowledge on individual margin geometry. While both margins involve crustal hyper-extension, it is much more pronounced in the South Atlantic. We investigate the evolution of these two margin pairs by carefully constraining our models with detailed plate kinematic history, laboratory-based rheology, and melt fraction evaluation of mantle upwelling. Our experiments are consistent with observed fault patterns, crustal thickness, and basin stratigraphy. We conduct 2D thermomechanical rift models using the finite element code SLIM3D that operates with nonlinear stress- and temperature-dependent elasto-visco-plastic rheology, with parameters provided by laboratory experiments on major crustal and upper mantle rocks. In our models we also calculate the melt fraction within the upwelling asthenosphere, which allows us to control whether the model indeed corresponds to the non-magmatic margin type or not. Our modelling highlights two processes as fundamental for the formation of hyper-extension and margin asymmetry at non-magmatic margins: (1) Strain hardening in the rift center due to cooling of upwelling mantle material (2) The formation of a weak crustal domain adjacent to the rift center caused by localized viscous strain softening and heat transfer from the mantle. Simultaneous activity of both processes promotes lateral rift migration in a continuous way that generates a wide layer of hyper-extended crust on

  5. Random and cooperative sequential adsorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, J. W.

    1993-10-01

    Irreversible random sequential adsorption (RSA) on lattices, and continuum "car parking" analogues, have long received attention as models for reactions on polymer chains, chemisorption on single-crystal surfaces, adsorption in colloidal systems, and solid state transformations. Cooperative generalizations of these models (CSA) are sometimes more appropriate, and can exhibit richer kinetics and spatial structure, e.g., autocatalysis and clustering. The distribution of filled or transformed sites in RSA and CSA is not described by an equilibrium Gibbs measure. This is the case even for the saturation "jammed" state of models where the lattice or space cannot fill completely. However exact analysis is often possible in one dimension, and a variety of powerful analytic methods have been developed for higher dimensional models. Here we review the detailed understanding of asymptotic kinetics, spatial correlations, percolative structure, etc., which is emerging for these far-from-equilibrium processes.

  6. Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Riis

    In this thesis we describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon codes with non-uniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance...... is possible as low as Eb/No=0.6 dB, which is about 1.7 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio that marks the cut-off rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability...... of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first Reed-Solomon word is decoded after C computations are presented. This is supported by simulation results that are also extended to other parameters....

  7. Sequential Power-Dependence Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buskens, Vincent; Rijt, Arnout van de

    2008-01-01

    Existing methods for predicting resource divisions in laboratory exchange networks do not take into account the sequential nature of the experimental setting. We extend network exchange theory by considering sequential exchange. We prove that Sequential Power-Dependence Theory—unlike

  8. Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Riis; Paaske, Erik

    1998-01-01

    We describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon (RS) codes with nonuniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance is possible as low...... as Eb/N0=0.6 dB, which is about 1.25 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) that marks the cutoff rate for the full system. Accounting for about 0.45 dB due to the outer codes, sequential decoding takes place at about 1.7 dB below the SNR cutoff rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since...... the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first RS word is decoded after C computations are presented. These results are supported...

  9. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  10. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning process : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  11. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning processes : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, Anna; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry

    2012-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  12. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  13. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. Methods: The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed...... about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing a forgiving infrastructure within a sustainable safety systems......Objective: The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives...

  14. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  15. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  16. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  17. Financial gradualism and banking crises in North Africa region: an investigation by a panel logit model

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. In order to overcome the troubles of the crisis in the seventies, North African countries have adopted financial liberalization policies to enhance their economic growth. Moreover, these policies have affected the stability of their banking systems. The purpose of this study is to test the impact of financial liberalization on the probability of appearance of banking crises which covers a sample of four countries of the North Africa region during the period 1970-2003 by using a pane...

  18. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  19. Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)

  20. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  1. Sequential modelling of ICRF wave near RF fields and asymptotic RF sheaths description for AUG ICRF antennas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacquot Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of simulations is performed with RAPLICASOL and SSWICH to compare two AUG ICRF antennas. RAPLICASOL outputs have been used as input to SSWICH-SW for the AUG ICRF antennas. Using parallel electric field maps and the scattering matrix produced by RAPLICASOL, SSWICH-SW, reduced to its asymptotic part, is able to produce a 2D radial/poloidal map of the DC plasma potential accounting for the antenna input settings (total power, power balance, phasing. Two models of antennas are compared: 2-strap antenna vs 3-strap antenna. The 2D DC potential structures are correlated to structures of the parallel electric field map for different phasing and power balance. The overall DC plasma potential on the 3-strap antenna is lower due to better global RF currents compensation. Spatial proximity between regions of high RF electric field and regions where high DC plasma potentials are observed is an important factor for sheath rectification.

  2. Distinct effects of perceptual quality on auditory word recognition, memory formation and recall in a neural model of sequential memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Miller

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Adults with sensory impairment, such as reduced hearing acuity, have impaired ability to recall identifiable words, even when their memory is otherwise normal. We hypothesize that poorer stimulus quality causes weaker activity in neurons responsive to the stimulus and more time to elapse between stimulus onset and identification. The weaker activity and increased delay to stimulus identification reduce the necessary strengthening of connections between neurons active before stimulus presentation and neurons active at the time of stimulus identification. We test our hypothesis through a biologically motivated computational model, which performs item recognition, memory formation and memory retrieval. In our simulations, spiking neurons are distributed into pools representing either items or context, in two separate, but connected winner-takes-all (WTA networks. We include associative, Hebbian learning, by comparing multiple forms of spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP, which strengthen synapses between coactive neurons during stimulus identification. Synaptic strengthening by STDP can be sufficient to reactivate neurons during recall if their activity during a prior stimulus rose strongly and rapidly. We find that a single poor quality stimulus impairs recall of neighboring stimuli as well as the weak stimulus itself. We demonstrate that within the WTA paradigm of word recognition, reactivation of separate, connected sets of non-word, context cells permits reverse recall. Also, only with such coactive context cells, does slowing the rate of stimulus presentation increase recall probability. We conclude that significant temporal overlap of neural activity patterns, absent from individual WTA networks, is necessary to match behavioral data for word recall.

  3. The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

    2017-05-01

    Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

  4. Sequential decay of Reggeons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Toshihiro

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities of meson production in the sequential decay of Reggeons, which are formed from the projectile and the target in the hadron-hadron to Reggeon-Reggeon processes, are investigated. It is assumed that pair creation of heavy quarks and simultaneous creation of two antiquark-quark pairs are negligible. The leading-order terms with respect to ratio of creation probabilities of anti s s to anti u u (anti d d) are calculated. The production cross sections in the target fragmentation region are given in terms of probabilities in the initial decay of the Reggeons and an effect of manyparticle production. (author)

  5. Asynchronous Operators of Sequential Logic Venjunction & Sequention

    CERN Document Server

    Vasyukevich, Vadim

    2011-01-01

    This book is dedicated to new mathematical instruments assigned for logical modeling of the memory of digital devices. The case in point is logic-dynamical operation named venjunction and venjunctive function as well as sequention and sequentional function. Venjunction and sequention operate within the framework of sequential logic. In a form of the corresponding equations, they organically fit analytical expressions of Boolean algebra. Thus, a sort of symbiosis is formed using elements of asynchronous sequential logic on the one hand and combinational logic on the other hand. So, asynchronous

  6. Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kortbek, Jacob; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Gammelmark, Kim Løkke

    2008-01-01

    A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective is to im......A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective...... is to improve and obtain a more range independent lateral resolution compared to conventional dynamic receive focusing (DRF) without compromising frame rate. SASB is a two-stage procedure using two separate beamformers. First a set of Bmode image lines using a single focal point in both transmit and receive...... is stored. The second stage applies the focused image lines from the first stage as input data. The SASB method has been investigated using simulations in Field II and by off-line processing of data acquired with a commercial scanner. The performance of SASB with a static image object is compared with DRF...

  7. Campbell and moment measures for finite sequential spatial processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractWe define moment and Campbell measures for sequential spatial processes, prove a Campbell-Mecke theorem, and relate the results to their counterparts in the theory of point processes. In particular, we show that any finite sequential spatial process model can be derived as the vector

  8. Dynamics-based sequential memory: Winnerless competition of patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seliger, Philip; Tsimring, Lev S.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

    2003-01-01

    We introduce a biologically motivated dynamical principle of sequential memory which is based on winnerless competition (WLC) of event images. This mechanism is implemented in a two-layer neural model of sequential spatial memory. We present the learning dynamics which leads to the formation of a WLC network. After learning, the system is capable of associative retrieval of prerecorded sequences of patterns

  9. Accounting for Heterogeneous Returns in Sequential Schooling Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zamarro, G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a method for estimating returns to schooling that takes into account that returns may be heterogeneous among agents and that educational decisions are made sequentially.A sequential decision model is interesting because it explicitly considers that the level of education of each

  10. Geostatistical modeling of the gas emission zone and its in-place gas content for Pittsburgh-seam mines using sequential Gaussian simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karacan, C.O.; Olea, R.A.; Goodman, G.

    2012-01-01

    Determination of the size of the gas emission zone, the locations of gas sources within, and especially the amount of gas retained in those zones is one of the most important steps for designing a successful methane control strategy and an efficient ventilation system in longwall coal mining. The formation of the gas emission zone and the potential amount of gas-in-place (GIP) that might be available for migration into a mine are factors of local geology and rock properties that usually show spatial variability in continuity and may also show geometric anisotropy. Geostatistical methods are used here for modeling and prediction of gas amounts and for assessing their associated uncertainty in gas emission zones of longwall mines for methane control.This study used core data obtained from 276 vertical exploration boreholes drilled from the surface to the bottom of the Pittsburgh coal seam in a mining district in the Northern Appalachian basin. After identifying important coal and non-coal layers for the gas emission zone, univariate statistical and semivariogram analyses were conducted for data from different formations to define the distribution and continuity of various attributes. Sequential simulations performed stochastic assessment of these attributes, such as gas content, strata thickness, and strata displacement. These analyses were followed by calculations of gas-in-place and their uncertainties in the Pittsburgh seam caved zone and fractured zone of longwall mines in this mining district. Grid blanking was used to isolate the volume over the actual panels from the entire modeled district and to calculate gas amounts that were directly related to the emissions in longwall mines.Results indicated that gas-in-place in the Pittsburgh seam, in the caved zone and in the fractured zone, as well as displacements in major rock units, showed spatial correlations that could be modeled and estimated using geostatistical methods. This study showed that GIP volumes may

  11. Portal vein ligation is as effective as sequential portal vein and hepatic artery ligation in inducing contralateral liver hypertrophy in a rat model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veteläinen, Reeta; Dinant, Sander; van Vliet, Arlène; van Gulik, Thomas M.

    2006-01-01

    PURPOSE: Dual embolization of the hepatic artery and portal vein (PV) has been proposed to enhance contralateral liver regeneration before resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of PV ligation compared with simultaneous or sequential dual ligation on regeneration,

  12. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  13. Sequential radioimmunotherapy with 177Lu- and 211At-labeled monoclonal antibody BR96 in a syngeneic rat colon carcinoma model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Sophie E; Elgström, Erika; Bäck, Tom

    2014-01-01

    for small, established tumors. A combination of such radionuclides may be successful in regimens of radioimmunotherapy. In this study, rats were treated by sequential administration of first a 177Lu-labeled antibody, followed by a 211At-labeled antibody 25 days later. METHODS: Rats bearing solid colon...... carcinoma tumors were treated with 400 MBq/kg body weight 177Lu-BR96. After 25 days, three groups of animals were given either 5 or 10 MBq/kg body weight of 211At-BR96 simultaneously with or without a blocking agent reducing halogen uptake in normal tissues. Control animals were not given any 211At-BR96....... The rats suffered from reversible myelotoxicity after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Sequential administration of 177Lu-BR96 and 211At-BR96 resulted in tolerable toxicity providing halogen blocking but did not enhance the therapeutic effect....

  14. Adaptive sequential controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Sharkawi, Mohamed A. (Renton, WA); Xing, Jian (Seattle, WA); Butler, Nicholas G. (Newberg, OR); Rodriguez, Alonso (Pasadena, CA)

    1994-01-01

    An adaptive sequential controller (50/50') for controlling a circuit breaker (52) or other switching device to substantially eliminate transients on a distribution line caused by closing and opening the circuit breaker. The device adaptively compensates for changes in the response time of the circuit breaker due to aging and environmental effects. A potential transformer (70) provides a reference signal corresponding to the zero crossing of the voltage waveform, and a phase shift comparator circuit (96) compares the reference signal to the time at which any transient was produced when the circuit breaker closed, producing a signal indicative of the adaptive adjustment that should be made. Similarly, in controlling the opening of the circuit breaker, a current transformer (88) provides a reference signal that is compared against the time at which any transient is detected when the circuit breaker last opened. An adaptive adjustment circuit (102) produces a compensation time that is appropriately modified to account for changes in the circuit breaker response, including the effect of ambient conditions and aging. When next opened or closed, the circuit breaker is activated at an appropriately compensated time, so that it closes when the voltage crosses zero and opens when the current crosses zero, minimizing any transients on the distribution line. Phase angle can be used to control the opening of the circuit breaker relative to the reference signal provided by the potential transformer.

  15. Adaptive sequential controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sharkawi, Mohamed A.; Xing, Jian; Butler, Nicholas G.; Rodriguez, Alonso

    1994-01-01

    An adaptive sequential controller (50/50') for controlling a circuit breaker (52) or other switching device to substantially eliminate transients on a distribution line caused by closing and opening the circuit breaker. The device adaptively compensates for changes in the response time of the circuit breaker due to aging and environmental effects. A potential transformer (70) provides a reference signal corresponding to the zero crossing of the voltage waveform, and a phase shift comparator circuit (96) compares the reference signal to the time at which any transient was produced when the circuit breaker closed, producing a signal indicative of the adaptive adjustment that should be made. Similarly, in controlling the opening of the circuit breaker, a current transformer (88) provides a reference signal that is compared against the time at which any transient is detected when the circuit breaker last opened. An adaptive adjustment circuit (102) produces a compensation time that is appropriately modified to account for changes in the circuit breaker response, including the effect of ambient conditions and aging. When next opened or closed, the circuit breaker is activated at an appropriately compensated time, so that it closes when the voltage crosses zero and opens when the current crosses zero, minimizing any transients on the distribution line. Phase angle can be used to control the opening of the circuit breaker relative to the reference signal provided by the potential transformer.

  16. Quantum Inequalities and Sequential Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candelpergher, B.; Grandouz, T.; Rubinx, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the peculiar context of sequential measurements is chosen in order to analyze the quantum specificity in the two most famous examples of Heisenberg and Bell inequalities: Results are found at some interesting variance with customary textbook materials, where the context of initial state re-initialization is described. A key-point of the analysis is the possibility of defining Joint Probability Distributions for sequential random variables associated to quantum operators. Within the sequential context, it is shown that Joint Probability Distributions can be defined in situations where not all of the quantum operators (corresponding to random variables) do commute two by two. (authors)

  17. Sequential Foreign Investments, Regional Technology Platforms and the Evolution of Japanese Multinationals in East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Jaeyong

    2001-01-01

    IVABSTRACTIn this paper, we investigate the firm-level mechanisms that underlie the sequential foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs). To understand inter-firm heterogeneity in the sequential FDI behaviors of MNCs, we develop a firm capability-based model of sequential FDI decisions. In the setting of Japanese electronics MNCs in East Asia, we empirically examine how prior investments in firm capabilities affect sequential investments into existingprodu...

  18. Framework for sequential approximate optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, J.H.; Etman, L.F.P.; Keulen, van F.; Rooda, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    An object-oriented framework for Sequential Approximate Optimization (SAO) isproposed. The framework aims to provide an open environment for thespecification and implementation of SAO strategies. The framework is based onthe Python programming language and contains a toolbox of Python

  19. Sequential Monte Carlo with Highly Informative Observations

    OpenAIRE

    Del Moral, Pierre; Murray, Lawrence M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is simulating bridges between given initial and final values. The basic idea is to introduce a schedule of intermediate weighting and resampling times between observation times, which guide particles towards the final state. This can always be done for continuous-...

  20. Sequentially pulsed traveling wave accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporaso, George J [Livermore, CA; Nelson, Scott D [Patterson, CA; Poole, Brian R [Tracy, CA

    2009-08-18

    A sequentially pulsed traveling wave compact accelerator having two or more pulse forming lines each with a switch for producing a short acceleration pulse along a short length of a beam tube, and a trigger mechanism for sequentially triggering the switches so that a traveling axial electric field is produced along the beam tube in synchronism with an axially traversing pulsed beam of charged particles to serially impart energy to the particle beam.

  1. Sequential use of the STICS crop model and of the MACRO pesticide fate model to simulate pesticides leaching in cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammoglia, Sabine-Karen; Moeys, Julien; Barriuso, Enrique; Larsbo, Mats; Marín-Benito, Jesús-María; Justes, Eric; Alletto, Lionel; Ubertosi, Marjorie; Nicolardot, Bernard; Munier-Jolain, Nicolas; Mamy, Laure

    2017-03-01

    The current challenge in sustainable agriculture is to introduce new cropping systems to reduce pesticides use in order to reduce ground and surface water contamination. However, it is difficult to carry out in situ experiments to assess the environmental impacts of pesticide use for all possible combinations of climate, crop, and soils; therefore, in silico tools are necessary. The objective of this work was to assess pesticides leaching in cropping systems coupling the performances of a crop model (STICS) and of a pesticide fate model (MACRO). STICS-MACRO has the advantage of being able to simulate pesticides fate in complex cropping systems and to consider some agricultural practices such as fertilization, mulch, or crop residues management, which cannot be accounted for with MACRO. The performance of STICS-MACRO was tested, without calibration, from measurements done in two French experimental sites with contrasted soil and climate properties. The prediction of water percolation and pesticides concentrations with STICS-MACRO was satisfactory, but it varied with the pedoclimatic context. The performance of STICS-MACRO was shown to be similar or better than that of MACRO. The improvement of the simulation of crop growth allowed better estimate of crop transpiration therefore of water balance. It also allowed better estimate of pesticide interception by the crop which was found to be crucial for the prediction of pesticides concentrations in water. STICS-MACRO is a new promising tool to improve the assessment of the environmental risks of pesticides used in cropping systems.

  2. The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

  3. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  4. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Sequential flavor symmetry breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldmann, Thorsten; Jung, Martin; Mannel, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The gauge sector of the standard model exhibits a flavor symmetry that allows for independent unitary transformations of the fermion multiplets. In the standard model the flavor symmetry is broken by the Yukawa couplings to the Higgs boson, and the resulting fermion masses and mixing angles show a pronounced hierarchy. In this work we connect the observed hierarchy to a sequence of intermediate effective theories, where the flavor symmetries are broken in a stepwise fashion by vacuum expectation values of suitably constructed spurion fields. We identify the possible scenarios in the quark sector and discuss some implications of this approach.

  6. Sequential flavor symmetry breaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldmann, Thorsten; Jung, Martin; Mannel, Thomas

    2009-08-01

    The gauge sector of the standard model exhibits a flavor symmetry that allows for independent unitary transformations of the fermion multiplets. In the standard model the flavor symmetry is broken by the Yukawa couplings to the Higgs boson, and the resulting fermion masses and mixing angles show a pronounced hierarchy. In this work we connect the observed hierarchy to a sequence of intermediate effective theories, where the flavor symmetries are broken in a stepwise fashion by vacuum expectation values of suitably constructed spurion fields. We identify the possible scenarios in the quark sector and discuss some implications of this approach.

  7. Sequential versus simultaneous market delineation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Møllgaard, Peter; Kastberg Nielsen, Claus

    2005-01-01

    and geographical markets. Using a unique data setfor prices of Norwegian and Scottish salmon, we propose a methodologyfor simultaneous market delineation and we demonstrate that comparedto a sequential approach conclusions will be reversed.JEL: C3, K21, L41, Q22Keywords: Relevant market, econometric delineation......Delineation of the relevant market forms a pivotal part of most antitrustcases. The standard approach is sequential. First the product marketis delineated, then the geographical market is defined. Demand andsupply substitution in both the product dimension and the geographicaldimension...

  8. Sequential logic analysis and synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Cavanagh, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Until now, there was no single resource for actual digital system design. Using both basic and advanced concepts, Sequential Logic: Analysis and Synthesis offers a thorough exposition of the analysis and synthesis of both synchronous and asynchronous sequential machines. With 25 years of experience in designing computing equipment, the author stresses the practical design of state machines. He clearly delineates each step of the structured and rigorous design principles that can be applied to practical applications. The book begins by reviewing the analysis of combinatorial logic and Boolean a

  9. Comparison of Sequential and Variational Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Weerts, Albrecht

    2017-04-01

    Data assimilation is a valuable tool to improve model state estimates by combining measured observations with model simulations. It has recently gained significant attention due to its potential in using remote sensing products to improve operational hydrological forecasts and for reanalysis purposes. This has been supported by the application of sequential techniques such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter which require no additional features within the modeling process, i.e. it can use arbitrary black-box models. Alternatively, variational techniques rely on optimization algorithms to minimize a pre-defined objective function. This function describes the trade-off between the amount of noise introduced into the system and the mismatch between simulated and observed variables. While sequential techniques have been commonly applied to hydrological processes, variational techniques are seldom used. In our believe, this is mainly attributed to the required computation of first order sensitivities by algorithmic differentiation techniques and related model enhancements, but also to lack of comparison between both techniques. We contribute to filling this gap and present the results from the assimilation of streamflow data in two basins located in Germany and Canada. The assimilation introduces noise to precipitation and temperature to produce better initial estimates of an HBV model. The results are computed for a hindcast period and assessed using lead time performance metrics. The study concludes with a discussion of the main features of each technique and their advantages/disadvantages in hydrological applications.

  10. Generalized infimum and sequential product of quantum effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yuan; Sun Xiuhong; Chen Zhengli

    2007-01-01

    The quantum effects for a physical system can be described by the set E(H) of positive operators on a complex Hilbert space H that are bounded above by the identity operator I. For A, B(set-membership sign)E(H), the operation of sequential product A(convolution sign)B=A 1/2 BA 1/2 was proposed as a model for sequential quantum measurements. A nice investigation of properties of the sequential product has been carried over [Gudder, S. and Nagy, G., 'Sequential quantum measurements', J. Math. Phys. 42, 5212 (2001)]. In this note, we extend some results of this reference. In particular, a gap in the proof of Theorem 3.2 in this reference is overcome. In addition, some properties of generalized infimum A sqcap B are studied

  11. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  12. Evaluation Using Sequential Trials Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Mark E.; Ralls, Stephen A.

    1986-01-01

    Although dental school faculty as well as practitioners are interested in evaluating products and procedures used in clinical practice, research design and statistical analysis can sometimes pose problems. Sequential trials methods provide an analytical structure that is both easy to use and statistically valid. (Author/MLW)

  13. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  14. A Relational Account of Call-by-Value Sequentiality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riecke, Jon Gary; Sandholm, Anders Bo

    2002-01-01

    We construct a model for FPC, a purely functional, sequential, call-by-value language. The model is built from partial continuous functions, in the style of Plotkin, further constrained to be uniform with respect to a class of logical relations. We prove that the model is fully abstract....

  15. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  16. Time scale of random sequential adsorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erban, Radek; Chapman, S Jonathan

    2007-04-01

    A simple multiscale approach to the diffusion-driven adsorption from a solution to a solid surface is presented. The model combines two important features of the adsorption process: (i) The kinetics of the chemical reaction between adsorbing molecules and the surface and (ii) geometrical constraints on the surface made by molecules which are already adsorbed. The process (i) is modeled in a diffusion-driven context, i.e., the conditional probability of adsorbing a molecule provided that the molecule hits the surface is related to the macroscopic surface reaction rate. The geometrical constraint (ii) is modeled using random sequential adsorption (RSA), which is the sequential addition of molecules at random positions on a surface; one attempt to attach a molecule is made per one RSA simulation time step. By coupling RSA with the diffusion of molecules in the solution above the surface the RSA simulation time step is related to the real physical time. The method is illustrated on a model of chemisorption of reactive polymers to a virus surface.

  17. A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

    2007-07-31

    The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

  18. Decoding restricted participation in sequential electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knaut, Andreas; Paschmann, Martin

    2017-06-15

    Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auction which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a fundamental electricity market model with 15-minute temporal resolution, we identify the lack of sub-hourly market coupling being the most relevant driver of restricted participation. We derive a proxy for price volatility and find that full market coupling may trigger quarter-hourly price volatility to decrease by a factor close to four.

  19. From sequential to parallel programming with patterns

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    To increase in both performance and efficiency, our programming models need to adapt to better exploit modern processors. The classic idioms and patterns for programming such as loops, branches or recursion are the pillars of almost every code and are well known among all programmers. These patterns all have in common that they are sequential in nature. Embracing parallel programming patterns, which allow us to program for multi- and many-core hardware in a natural way, greatly simplifies the task of designing a program that scales and performs on modern hardware, independently of the used programming language, and in a generic way.

  20. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2014-01-01

    incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well

  1. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  2. A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

    2016-03-01

    Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

  3. Automatic synthesis of sequential control schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, I.

    1993-01-01

    Of all hard- and software developed for industrial control purposes, the majority is devoted to sequential, or binary valued, control and only a minor part to classical linear control. Typically, the sequential parts of the controller are invoked during startup and shut-down to bring the system into its normal operating region and into some safe standby region, respectively. Despite its importance, fairly little theoretical research has been devoted to this area, and sequential control programs are therefore still created manually without much theoretical support to obtain a systematic approach. We propose a method to create sequential control programs automatically. The main ideas is to spend some effort off-line modelling the plant, and from this model generate the control strategy, that is the plan. The plant is modelled using action structures, thereby concentrating on the actions instead of the states of the plant. In general the planning problem shows exponential complexity in the number of state variables. However, by focusing on the actions, we can identify problem classes as well as algorithms such that the planning complexity is reduced to polynomial complexity. We prove that these algorithms are sound, i.e., the generated solution will solve the stated problem, and complete, i.e., if the algorithms fail, then no solution exists. The algorithms generate a plan as a set of actions and a partial order on this set specifying the execution order. The generated plant is proven to be minimal and maximally parallel. For a larger class of problems we propose a method to split the original problem into a number of simple problems that can each be solved using one of the presented algorithms. It is also shown how a plan can be translated into a GRAFCET chart, and to illustrate these ideas we have implemented a planing tool, i.e., a system that is able to automatically create control schemes. Such a tool can of course also be used on-line if it is fast enough. This

  4. Robustness of the Sequential Lineup Advantage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronlund, Scott D.; Carlson, Curt A.; Dailey, Sarah B.; Goodsell, Charles A.

    2009-01-01

    A growing movement in the United States and around the world involves promoting the advantages of conducting an eyewitness lineup in a sequential manner. We conducted a large study (N = 2,529) that included 24 comparisons of sequential versus simultaneous lineups. A liberal statistical criterion revealed only 2 significant sequential lineup…

  5. Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

    2017-01-01

    In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

  6. Mining Emerging Sequential Patterns for Activity Recognition in Body Sensor Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, Tao; Wang, Liang; Chen, Hanhua

    2010-01-01

    Body Sensor Networks oer many applications in healthcare, well-being and entertainment. One of the emerging applications is recognizing activities of daily living. In this paper, we introduce a novel knowledge pattern named Emerging Sequential Pattern (ESP)|a sequential pattern that discovers...... signicant class dierences|to recognize both simple (i.e., sequential) and complex (i.e., interleaved and concurrent) activities. Based on ESPs, we build our complex activity models directly upon the sequential model to recognize both activity types. We conduct comprehensive empirical studies to evaluate...

  7. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  8. Sequential Computerized Mastery Tests--Three Simulation Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiberg, Marie

    2006-01-01

    A simulation study of a sequential computerized mastery test is carried out with items modeled with the 3 parameter logistic item response theory model. The examinees' responses are either identically distributed, not identically distributed, or not identically distributed together with estimation errors in the item characteristics. The…

  9. Lexical decoder for continuous speech recognition: sequential neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Christine

    1991-01-01

    The work presented in this dissertation concerns the study of a connectionist architecture to treat sequential inputs. In this context, the model proposed by J.L. Elman, a recurrent multilayers network, is used. Its abilities and its limits are evaluated. Modifications are done in order to treat erroneous or noisy sequential inputs and to classify patterns. The application context of this study concerns the realisation of a lexical decoder for analytical multi-speakers continuous speech recognition. Lexical decoding is completed from lattices of phonemes which are obtained after an acoustic-phonetic decoding stage relying on a K Nearest Neighbors search technique. Test are done on sentences formed from a lexicon of 20 words. The results are obtained show the ability of the proposed connectionist model to take into account the sequentiality at the input level, to memorize the context and to treat noisy or erroneous inputs. (author) [fr

  10. Human visual system automatically encodes sequential regularities of discrete events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Motohiro; Schröger, Erich; Czigler, István; Ohira, Hideki

    2010-06-01

    regularities. In combination with a wide range of auditory MMN studies, the present study highlights the critical role of sensory systems in automatically encoding sequential regularities when modeling the world.

  11. Logit Model of Computer-Based Data-Driven Creative Idea Generation in the Industry and Service Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Hojjati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Organizational creativity and employee idea generation have become important and essential elements of an organization’s success, as creativity results to increased performance. The need of increased creativity is evident in industrial and service companies. The main idea behind this paper is to analyze and demonstrate if accessing various types of data in certain ways and/or situations affects creative idea generation by the people involved in different industrial/service sectors, considering that now most of the employees use digital data. The current paper discusses how seven different factors are related to digital data affect creativity.

  12. What drives active transportation choices among the aging population? Comparing a Bayesian belief network and mixed logit modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    As people age, they typically face declining levels of physical ability and mobility. However, walking and bicycling can remain relatively easy ways to be physically active for older adults provided that the built environment facilitates these activities. The aim of this study is to investigate

  13. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  14. Microstructure history effect during sequential thermomechanical processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yassar, Reza S.; Murphy, John; Burton, Christina; Horstemeyer, Mark F.; El kadiri, Haitham; Shokuhfar, Tolou

    2008-01-01

    The key to modeling the material processing behavior is the linking of the microstructure evolution to its processing history. This paper quantifies various microstructural features of an aluminum automotive alloy that undergoes sequential thermomechanical processing which is comprised hot rolling of a 150-mm billet to a 75-mm billet, rolling to 3 mm, annealing, and then cold rolling to a 0.8-mm thickness sheet. The microstructural content was characterized by means of electron backscatter diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. The results clearly demonstrate the evolution of precipitate morphologies, dislocation structures, and grain orientation distributions. These data can be used to improve material models that claim to capture the history effects of the processing materials

  15. A Sequential Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter for Attitude Estimation Using Vector Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Fangjun; Jiang, Sai; Zha, Feng

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a sequential multiplicative extended Kalman filter (SMEKF) is proposed for attitude estimation using vector observations. In the proposed SMEKF, each of the vector observations is processed sequentially to update the attitude, which can make the measurement model linearization more accurate for the next vector observation. This is the main difference to Murrell’s variation of the MEKF, which does not update the attitude estimate during the sequential procedure. Meanwhile, the covariance is updated after all the vector observations have been processed, which is used to account for the special characteristics of the reset operation necessary for the attitude update. This is the main difference to the traditional sequential EKF, which updates the state covariance at each step of the sequential procedure. The numerical simulation study demonstrates that the proposed SMEKF has more consistent and accurate performance in a wide range of initial estimate errors compared to the MEKF and its traditional sequential forms. PMID:29751538

  16. A Sequential Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter for Attitude Estimation Using Vector Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangjun Qin

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a sequential multiplicative extended Kalman filter (SMEKF is proposed for attitude estimation using vector observations. In the proposed SMEKF, each of the vector observations is processed sequentially to update the attitude, which can make the measurement model linearization more accurate for the next vector observation. This is the main difference to Murrell’s variation of the MEKF, which does not update the attitude estimate during the sequential procedure. Meanwhile, the covariance is updated after all the vector observations have been processed, which is used to account for the special characteristics of the reset operation necessary for the attitude update. This is the main difference to the traditional sequential EKF, which updates the state covariance at each step of the sequential procedure. The numerical simulation study demonstrates that the proposed SMEKF has more consistent and accurate performance in a wide range of initial estimate errors compared to the MEKF and its traditional sequential forms.

  17. The EC BIOCLIM Project (2000-2003), 5. Euratom Framework Programme - Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvez, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Marianne Calvez (ANDRA, France) presented the new EC BIOCLIM project that started in 2001. Its main objective is to provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the possible long-term impacts on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations due to climate driven changes. She explained that BIOCLIM objective is not to predict what will be the future but will correspond to an illustration of how people could use the knowledge. The BIOCLIM project will use the outcomes from the Biomass project. Where Biomass considered discrete biospheres, the BIOCLIM project will consider the evolution of climate with a focus on the European climate for three regions in the United Kingdom, France and Spain. The consortium of BIOCLIM participants consists of various experts in climate modelling and various experts and organisations in performance assessment. The intent is to build an integrated dynamic climate model that represents all the important mechanisms for long-term climate evolution. The modelling will primarily address the next 200000 years. The final outcome will be an enhancement of the state-of-the-art treatment of biosphere system change over long periods of time through the use of a number of innovative climate modelling approaches and the application of the climate model outputs in performance assessments

  18. Sequential series for nuclear reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izumo, Ko

    1975-01-01

    A new time-dependent treatment of nuclear reactions is given, in which the wave function of compound nucleus is expanded by a sequential series of the reaction processes. The wave functions of the sequential series form another complete set of compound nucleus at the limit Δt→0. It is pointed out that the wave function is characterized by the quantities: the number of degrees of freedom of motion n, the period of the motion (Poincare cycle) tsub(n), the delay time t sub(nμ) and the relaxation time tausub(n) to the equilibrium of compound nucleus, instead of the usual quantum number lambda, the energy eigenvalue Esub(lambda) and the total width GAMMAsub(lambda) of resonance levels, respectively. The transition matrix elements and the yields of nuclear reactions also become the functions of time given by the Fourier transform of the usual ones. The Poincare cycles of compound nuclei are compared with the observed correlations among resonance levels, which are about 10 -17 --10 -16 sec for medium and heavy nuclei and about 10 -20 sec for the intermediate resonances. (auth.)

  19. Modelling and sequential simulation of multi-tubular metallic membrane and techno-economics of a hydrogen production process employing thin-layer membrane reactor

    KAUST Repository

    Shafiee, Alireza; Arab, Mobin; Lai, Zhiping; Liu, Zongwen; Abbas, Ali

    2016-01-01

    reforming hydrogen production plant. A techno-economic analysis is then conducted using the validated model for a plant producing 300 TPD of hydrogen. The plant utilises a thin (2.5 μm) defect-free and selective layer (Pd75Ag25 alloy) membrane reactor

  20. Sequential search leads to faster, more efficient fragment-based de novo protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Saulo H P; Law, Eleanor C; Shi, Jiye; Deane, Charlotte M

    2018-04-01

    Most current de novo structure prediction methods randomly sample protein conformations and thus require large amounts of computational resource. Here, we consider a sequential sampling strategy, building on ideas from recent experimental work which shows that many proteins fold cotranslationally. We have investigated whether a pseudo-greedy search approach, which begins sequentially from one of the termini, can improve the performance and accuracy of de novo protein structure prediction. We observed that our sequential approach converges when fewer than 20 000 decoys have been produced, fewer than commonly expected. Using our software, SAINT2, we also compared the run time and quality of models produced in a sequential fashion against a standard, non-sequential approach. Sequential prediction produces an individual decoy 1.5-2.5 times faster than non-sequential prediction. When considering the quality of the best model, sequential prediction led to a better model being produced for 31 out of 41 soluble protein validation cases and for 18 out of 24 transmembrane protein cases. Correct models (TM-Score > 0.5) were produced for 29 of these cases by the sequential mode and for only 22 by the non-sequential mode. Our comparison reveals that a sequential search strategy can be used to drastically reduce computational time of de novo protein structure prediction and improve accuracy. Data are available for download from: http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/resources. SAINT2 is available for download from: https://github.com/sauloho/SAINT2. saulo.deoliveira@dtc.ox.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  1. Monitoring sequential electron transfer with EPR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thurnauer, M.C.; Feezel, L.L.; Snyder, S.W.; Tang, J.; Norris, J.R.; Morris, A.L.; Rustandi, R.R.

    1989-01-01

    A completely general model which treats electron spin polarization (ESP) found in a system in which radical pairs with different magnetic interactions are formed sequentially has been described. This treatment has been applied specifically to the ESP found in the bacterial reaction center. Test cases show clearly how parameters such as structure, lifetime, and magnetic interactions within the successive radical pairs affect the ESP, and demonstrate that previous treatments of this problem have been incomplete. The photosynthetic bacterial reaction center protein is an ideal system for testing the general model of ESP. The radical pair which exhibits ESP, P 870 + Q - (P 870 + is the oxidized, primary electron donor, a bacteriochlorophyll special pair and Q - is the reduced, primary quinone acceptor) is formed via sequential electron transport through the intermediary radical pair P 870 + I - (I - is the reduced, intermediary electron acceptor, a bacteriopheophytin). In addition, it is possible to experimentally vary most of the important parameters, such as the lifetime of the intermediary radical pair and the magnetic interactions in each pair. It has been shown how selective isotopic substitution ( 1 H or 2 H) on P 870 , I and Q affects the ESP of the EPR spectrum of P 870 + Q - , observed at two different microwave frequencies, in Fe 2+ -depleted bacterial reaction centers of Rhodobacter sphaeroides R26. Thus, the relative magnitudes of the magnetic properties (nuclear hyperfine and g-factor differences) which influence ESP development were varied. The results support the general model of ESP in that they suggest that the P 870 + Q - radical pair interactions are the dominant source of ESP production in 2 H bacterial reaction centers

  2. Long-term dynamic and pseudo-state modeling of complete partial nitrification process at high nitrogen loading rates in a sequential batch reactor (SBR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, Moomen; Eldyasti, Ahmed

    2017-06-01

    Recently, partial nitrification has been adopted widely either for the nitrite shunt process or intermediate nitrite generation step for the Anammox process. However, partial nitrification has been hindered by the complexity of maintaining stable nitrite accumulation at high nitrogen loading rates (NLR) which affect the feasibility of the process for high nitrogen content wastewater. Thus, the operational data of a lab scale SBR performing complete partial nitrification as a first step of nitrite shunt process at NLRs of 0.3-1.2kg/(m 3 d) have been used to calibrate and validate a process model developed using BioWin® in order to describe the long-term dynamic behavior of the SBR. Moreover, an identifiability analysis step has been introduced to the calibration protocol to eliminate the needs of the respirometric analysis for SBR models. The calibrated model was able to predict accurately the daily effluent ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, alkalinity concentrations and pH during all different operational conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Sequential lineup presentation: Patterns and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Lindsay, R C L; Mansour, Jamal K; Beaudry, J L; Leach, A-M; Bertrand, M I

    2009-01-01

    Sequential lineups were offered as an alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup. Sequential lineups reduce incorrect lineup selections; however, the accompanying loss of correct identifications has resulted in controversy regarding adoption of the technique. We discuss the procedure and research relevant to (1) the pattern of results found using sequential versus simultaneous lineups; (2) reasons (theory) for differences in witness responses; (3) two methodological issues; and (4) im...

  4. Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

    1991-12-01

    Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

  5. Multiplicity distributions and multiplicity correlations in sequential, off-equilibrium fragmentation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botet, R.

    1996-01-01

    A new kinetic fragmentation model, the Fragmentation - Inactivation -Binary (FIB) model is described where a dissipative process stops randomly the sequential, conservative and off-equilibrium fragmentation process. (K.A.)

  6. Sequential simulation approach to modeling of multi-seam coal deposits with an application to the assessment of a Louisiana lignite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olea, Ricardo A.; Luppens, James A.

    2012-01-01

    There are multiple ways to characterize uncertainty in the assessment of coal resources, but not all of them are equally satisfactory. Increasingly, the tendency is toward borrowing from the statistical tools developed in the last 50 years for the quantitative assessment of other mineral commodities. Here, we briefly review the most recent of such methods and formulate a procedure for the systematic assessment of multi-seam coal deposits taking into account several geological factors, such as fluctuations in thickness, erosion, oxidation, and bed boundaries. A lignite deposit explored in three stages is used for validating models based on comparing a first set of drill holes against data from infill and development drilling. Results were fully consistent with reality, providing a variety of maps, histograms, and scatterplots characterizing the deposit and associated uncertainty in the assessments. The geostatistical approach was particularly informative in providing a probability distribution modeling deposit wide uncertainty about total resources and a cumulative distribution of coal tonnage as a function of local uncertainty.

  7. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

    2013-01-01

    Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia). Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a p...

  8. —: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

    OpenAIRE

    Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

    2008-01-01

    We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

  9. Immediate Sequential Bilateral Cataract Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessel, Line; Andresen, Jens; Erngaard, Ditte

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present systematic review was to examine the benefits and harms associated with immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) with specific emphasis on the rate of complications, postoperative anisometropia, and subjective visual function in order to formulate evidence......-based national Danish guidelines for cataract surgery. A systematic literature review in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane central databases identified three randomized controlled trials that compared outcome in patients randomized to ISBCS or bilateral cataract surgery on two different dates. Meta-analyses were...... performed using the Cochrane Review Manager software. The quality of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE method (Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). We did not find any difference in the risk of complications or visual outcome in patients randomized to ISBCS or surgery...

  10. 'Sequential' Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT): A Novel Approach to BNCT for the Treatment of Oral Cancer in the Hamster Cheek Pouch Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molinari, Ana J.; Pozzi, Emiliano C.C.; Hughes, Andrea Monti; Heber, Elisa M.; Garabalino, Marcela A.; Thorp, Silvia I.; Miller, Marcelo; Itoiz, Maria E.; Aromando, Romina F.; Nigg, David W.; Quintana, Jorge; Santa Cruz, Gustavo A.; Trivillin, Veronica A.; Schwint, Amanda E.

    2011-01-01

    In the present study we evaluated the therapeutic effect and/or potential radiotoxicity of the novel 'Tandem' Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (T-BNCT) for the treatment of oral cancer in the hamster cheek pouch model at RA-3 Nuclear Reactor. Two groups of animals were treated with 'Tandem BNCT', i.e. BNCT mediated by boronophenylalanine (BPA) followed by BNCT mediated by sodium decahydrodecaborate (GB-10) either 24 h (T-24h-BNCT) or 48 h (T-48h-BNCT) later. A total tumor dose-matched single application of BNCT mediated by BPA and GB-10 administered jointly ((BPA + GB-10)-BNCT) was administered to an additional group of animals. At 28 days post-treatment, T-24h-BNCT and T-48h-BNCT induced, respectively, overall tumor control (OTC) of 95% and 91%, with no statistically significant differences between protocols. Tumor response for the single application of (BPA + GB-10)-BNCT was 75%, significantly lower than for T-BNCT. The T-BNCT protocols and (BPA + GB-10)-BNCT induced reversible mucositis in dose-limiting precancerous tissue around treated tumors, reaching Grade 3/4 mucositis in 47% and 60% of the animals respectively. No normal tissue radiotoxicity was associated to tumor control for any of the protocols. 'Tandem' BNCT enhances tumor control in oral cancer and reduces or, at worst, does not increase, mucositis in dose-limiting precancerous tissue.

  11. Comparative Study of Compensatory Liver Regeneration in a Rat Model: Portal Vein Ligation Only versus Sequential Ligation of the Portal Vein and Hepatic Artery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Soo Young [Dept. of Pathology, Dongnam Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Gyeong Sik [Dept. of Radiology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, College of Medicine, CHA University, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Byung Mo [Dept. of Surgery, Seoul Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-04-15

    To compare the volume change and the regenerative capacity between portal vein ligation (embolization) (PVL) and heterochronous PVL with hepatic artery ligation (HAL) in a rodent model. The animals were separated into three groups: group I, ligation of the left lateral and median portal vein branches; group II, completion of PVL, followed by ligation of the same branches of the hepatic artery after 48 h; control group, laparotomy without ligation was performed. Five rats from each group were sacrificed on 1, 3, 5, and 7 days after the operation. Volume change measurement, liver function tests and immunohistochemical analysis were performed. The volume of the nonligated lobe between groups I and II was not significantly different by day 5 and day 7. Mean alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels were significantly higher in group II, while the albumin level was higher in group I. Both c-kit- and MIB-5-positive cells used in the activity detection of regeneration were more prevalent in group I on day 1, 3, and 5, with statistical significance. There was no operation related mortality. PVL alone is safe and effective in compensatory liver regeneration. Performing both PVL and HAL does not confer any additional benefits.

  12. The sequential structure of brain activation predicts skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, John R; Bothell, Daniel; Fincham, Jon M; Moon, Jungaa

    2016-01-29

    In an fMRI study, participants were trained to play a complex video game. They were scanned early and then again after substantial practice. While better players showed greater activation in one region (right dorsal striatum) their relative skill was better diagnosed by considering the sequential structure of whole brain activation. Using a cognitive model that played this game, we extracted a characterization of the mental states that are involved in playing a game and the statistical structure of the transitions among these states. There was a strong correspondence between this measure of sequential structure and the skill of different players. Using multi-voxel pattern analysis, it was possible to recognize, with relatively high accuracy, the cognitive states participants were in during particular scans. We used the sequential structure of these activation-recognized states to predict the skill of individual players. These findings indicate that important features about information-processing strategies can be identified from a model-based analysis of the sequential structure of brain activation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. On the origin of reproducible sequential activity in neural circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, V. S.; Zhigulin, V. P.; Rabinovich, M. I.

    2004-12-01

    Robustness and reproducibility of sequential spatio-temporal responses is an essential feature of many neural circuits in sensory and motor systems of animals. The most common mathematical images of dynamical regimes in neural systems are fixed points, limit cycles, chaotic attractors, and continuous attractors (attractive manifolds of neutrally stable fixed points). These are not suitable for the description of reproducible transient sequential neural dynamics. In this paper we present the concept of a stable heteroclinic sequence (SHS), which is not an attractor. SHS opens the way for understanding and modeling of transient sequential activity in neural circuits. We show that this new mathematical object can be used to describe robust and reproducible sequential neural dynamics. Using the framework of a generalized high-dimensional Lotka-Volterra model, that describes the dynamics of firing rates in an inhibitory network, we present analytical results on the existence of the SHS in the phase space of the network. With the help of numerical simulations we confirm its robustness in presence of noise in spite of the transient nature of the corresponding trajectories. Finally, by referring to several recent neurobiological experiments, we discuss possible applications of this new concept to several problems in neuroscience.

  14. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  15. Trial Sequential Methods for Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulinskaya, Elena; Wood, John

    2014-01-01

    Statistical methods for sequential meta-analysis have applications also for the design of new trials. Existing methods are based on group sequential methods developed for single trials and start with the calculation of a required information size. This works satisfactorily within the framework of fixed effects meta-analysis, but conceptual…

  16. "Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W. Osborne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These outcomes represent important social science lines of research: retention in, or dropout from school, using illicit drugs, underage alcohol consumption, antisocial behavior, purchasing decisions, voting patterns, risky behavior, and so on. The goal of this paper is to briefly lead the reader through the surprisingly simple mathematics that underpins logistic regression: probabilities, odds, odds ratios, and logits. Anyone with spreadsheet software or a scientific calculator can follow along, and in turn, this knowledge can be used to make much more interesting, clear, and accurate presentations of results (especially to non-technical audiences. In particular, I will share an example of an interaction in logistic regression, how it was originally graphed, and how the graph was made substantially more user-friendly by converting the original metric (logits to a more readily interpretable metric (probability through three simple steps.

  17. Sequential lineup laps and eyewitness accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steblay, Nancy K; Dietrich, Hannah L; Ryan, Shannon L; Raczynski, Jeanette L; James, Kali A

    2011-08-01

    Police practice of double-blind sequential lineups prompts a question about the efficacy of repeated viewings (laps) of the sequential lineup. Two laboratory experiments confirmed the presence of a sequential lap effect: an increase in witness lineup picks from first to second lap, when the culprit was a stranger. The second lap produced more errors than correct identifications. In Experiment 2, lineup diagnosticity was significantly higher for sequential lineup procedures that employed a single versus double laps. Witnesses who elected to view a second lap made significantly more errors than witnesses who chose to stop after one lap or those who were required to view two laps. Witnesses with prior exposure to the culprit did not exhibit a sequential lap effect.

  18. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.

    2014-12-15

    This paper considers multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing and presents a framework for strategic learning in sequential games with explicit consideration of both temporal and spatial coordination. The associated Bayes risk functions explicitly incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well-defined value functions with respect to (a) the belief states for the case of conditional independent private noisy measurements that are also assumed to be independent identically distributed over time, and (b) the information states for the case of correlated private noisy measurements. A sequential investment game of strategic coordination and delay is also discussed as an application of the proposed strategic learning rules.

  19. Sequential Product of Quantum Effects: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudder, Stan

    2010-12-01

    This article presents an overview for the theory of sequential products of quantum effects. We first summarize some of the highlights of this relatively recent field of investigation and then provide some new results. We begin by discussing sequential effect algebras which are effect algebras endowed with a sequential product satisfying certain basic conditions. We then consider sequential products of (discrete) quantum measurements. We next treat transition effect matrices (TEMs) and their associated sequential product. A TEM is a matrix whose entries are effects and whose rows form quantum measurements. We show that TEMs can be employed for the study of quantum Markov chains. Finally, we prove some new results concerning TEMs and vector densities.

  20. Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Beskos, Alexandros; Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody; Tempone, Raul; Zhou, Yan

    2016-01-01

    In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

  1. Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Beskos, Alexandros

    2016-08-29

    In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

  2. Sequential Scintigraphy in Renal Transplantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkel, K. zum; Harbst, H.; Schenck, P.; Franz, H. E.; Ritz, E.; Roehl, L.; Ziegler, M.; Ammann, W.; Maier-Borst, W. [Institut Fuer Nuklearmedizin, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, Heidelberg, Federal Republic of Germany (Germany)

    1969-05-15

    Based on experience gained from more than 1600 patients with proved or suspected kidney diseases and on results on extended studies with dogs, sequential scintigraphy was performed after renal transplantation in dogs. After intravenous injection of 500 {mu}Ci. {sup 131}I-Hippuran scintiphotos were taken during the first minute with an exposure time of 15 sec each and thereafter with an exposure of 2 min up to at least 16 min.. Several examinations were evaluated digitally. 26 examinations were performed on 11 dogs with homotransplanted kidneys. Immediately after transplantation the renal function was almost normal arid the bladder was filled in due time. At the beginning of rejection the initial uptake of radioactive Hippuran was reduced. The intrarenal transport became delayed; probably the renal extraction rate decreased. Corresponding to the development of an oedema in the transplant the uptake area increased in size. In cases of thrombosis of the main artery there was no evidence of any uptake of radioactivity in the transplant. Similar results were obtained in 41 examinations on 15 persons. Patients with postoperative anuria due to acute tubular necrosis showed still some uptake of radioactivity contrary to those with thrombosis of the renal artery, where no uptake was found. In cases of rejection the most frequent signs were a reduced initial uptake and a delayed intrarenal transport of radioactive Hippuran. Infarction could be detected by a reduced uptake in distinct areas of the transplant. (author)

  3. Sequential provisional implant prosthodontics therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinner, Ira D; Markovits, Stanley; Jansen, Curtis E; Reid, Patrick E; Schnader, Yale E; Shapiro, Herbert J

    2012-01-01

    The fabrication and long-term use of first- and second-stage provisional implant prostheses is critical to create a favorable prognosis for function and esthetics of a fixed-implant supported prosthesis. The fixed metal and acrylic resin cemented first-stage prosthesis, as reviewed in Part I, is needed for prevention of adjacent and opposing tooth movement, pressure on the implant site as well as protection to avoid micromovement of the freshly placed implant body. The second-stage prosthesis, reviewed in Part II, should be used following implant uncovering and abutment installation. The patient wears this provisional prosthesis until maturation of the bone and healing of soft tissues. The second-stage provisional prosthesis is also a fail-safe mechanism for possible early implant failures and also can be used with late failures and/or for the necessity to repair the definitive prosthesis. In addition, the screw-retained provisional prosthesis is used if and when an implant requires removal or other implants are to be placed as in a sequential approach. The creation and use of both first- and second-stage provisional prostheses involve a restorative dentist, dental technician, surgeon, and patient to work as a team. If the dentist alone cannot do diagnosis and treatment planning, surgery, and laboratory techniques, he or she needs help by employing the expertise of a surgeon and a laboratory technician. This team approach is essential for optimum results.

  4. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  5. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  6. Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakraborty, Souvik, E-mail: csouvik41@gmail.com; Chowdhury, Rajib, E-mail: rajibfce@iitr.ac.in

    2016-07-15

    Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover, generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.

  7. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  8. A path-level exact parallelization strategy for sequential simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peredo, Oscar F.; Baeza, Daniel; Ortiz, Julián M.; Herrero, José R.

    2018-01-01

    Sequential Simulation is a well known method in geostatistical modelling. Following the Bayesian approach for simulation of conditionally dependent random events, Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) method draws simulated values for K categories (categorical case) or classes defined by K different thresholds (continuous case). Similarly, Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) method draws simulated values from a multivariate Gaussian field. In this work, a path-level approach to parallelize SIS and SGS methods is presented. A first stage of re-arrangement of the simulation path is performed, followed by a second stage of parallel simulation for non-conflicting nodes. A key advantage of the proposed parallelization method is to generate identical realizations as with the original non-parallelized methods. Case studies are presented using two sequential simulation codes from GSLIB: SISIM and SGSIM. Execution time and speedup results are shown for large-scale domains, with many categories and maximum kriging neighbours in each case, achieving high speedup results in the best scenarios using 16 threads of execution in a single machine.

  9. Losing a dime with a satisfied mind: positive affect predicts less search in sequential decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Helversen, Bettina; Mata, Rui

    2012-12-01

    We investigated the contribution of cognitive ability and affect to age differences in sequential decision making by asking younger and older adults to shop for items in a computerized sequential decision-making task. Older adults performed poorly compared to younger adults partly due to searching too few options. An analysis of the decision process with a formal model suggested that older adults set lower thresholds for accepting an option than younger participants. Further analyses suggested that positive affect, but not fluid abilities, was related to search in the sequential decision task. A second study that manipulated affect in younger adults supported the causal role of affect: Increased positive affect lowered the initial threshold for accepting an attractive option. In sum, our results suggest that positive affect is a key factor determining search in sequential decision making. Consequently, increased positive affect in older age may contribute to poorer sequential decisions by leading to insufficient search. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  10. Exploring the Spatial-Temporal Disparities of Urban Land Use Economic Efficiency in China and Its Influencing Factors under Environmental Constraints Based on a Sequential Slacks-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualin Xie

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Using a sequential slack-based measure (SSBM model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal disparities of urban land use economic efficiency (ULUEE under environmental constraints, and its influencing factors in 270 cities across China from 2003–2012. The main results are as follows: (1 The average ULUEE for Chinese cities is only 0.411, and out of the 270 cities, only six cities are always efficient in urban land use in the study period. Most cities have a lot of room to improve the economic output of secondary and tertiary industries, as well as environmental protection work; (2 The eastern region of China enjoys the highest ULUEE, followed by the western and central regions. Super-scale cities show the best performance of all four city scales, followed by large-scale, small-scale and medium-scale cities. Cities with relatively developed economies and less pollutant discharge always have better ULUEE; (3 The results of slack variables analysis show that most cities have problems such as the labor surplus, over-development, excessive pollutant discharge, economic output shortage, and unreasonable use of funds is the most serious one; (4 The regression results of the influencing factors show that improvements of the per capita GDP and land use intensity are helpful to raise ULUEE. The urbanization rate and the proportion of foreign enterprises’ output account for the total output in the secondary and tertiary industries only have the same effect in some regions and city scales. The land management policy and land leasing policy have negative impact on the ULUEE in all the three regions and four city scales; (5 Some targeted policy goals are proposed, including the reduction of surplus labor, and pay more attention to environmental protection. Most importantly, effective implementation of land management policies from the central government, and stopping blind leasing of land to make up the local government’s financial deficit would be very

  11. Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: An Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic ensemble square root filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amezcua, Javier

    This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn't represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion

  12. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  13. Tradable permit allocations and sequential choice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacKenzie, Ian A. [Centre for Economic Research, ETH Zuerich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    This paper investigates initial allocation choices in an international tradable pollution permit market. For two sovereign governments, we compare allocation choices that are either simultaneously or sequentially announced. We show sequential allocation announcements result in higher (lower) aggregate emissions when announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). Whether allocation announcements are strategic substitutes or complements depends on the relationship between the follower's damage function and governments' abatement costs. When the marginal damage function is relatively steep (flat), allocation announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). For quadratic abatement costs and damages, sequential announcements provide a higher level of aggregate emissions. (author)

  14. Sequential Generalized Transforms on Function Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Gil Choi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We define two sequential transforms on a function space Ca,b[0,T] induced by generalized Brownian motion process. We then establish the existence of the sequential transforms for functionals in a Banach algebra of functionals on Ca,b[0,T]. We also establish that any one of these transforms acts like an inverse transform of the other transform. Finally, we give some remarks about certain relations between our sequential transforms and other well-known transforms on Ca,b[0,T].

  15. Sequential method for the assessment of innovations in computer assisted industrial processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suarez Antola R.

    1995-01-01

    A sequential method for the assessment of innovations in industrial processes is proposed, using suitable combinations of mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of dynamics. Some advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed. tabs

  16. Efficacy of premixed versus sequential administration of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sequential administration in separate syringes on block characteristics, haemodynamic parameters, side effect profile and postoperative analgesic requirement. Trial design: This was a prospective, randomised clinical study. Method: Sixty orthopaedic patients scheduled for elective lower limb surgery under spinal ...

  17. Confirmatory Analysis of Simultaneous, Sequential, and Achievement Factors on the K-ABC at 11 Age Levels Ranging from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willson, Victor L.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Presents results of confirmatory factor analysis of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for children which is based on the underlying theoretical model of sequential, simultaneous, and achievement factors. Found support for the two-factor, simultaneous and sequential processing model. (MCF)

  18. Structural Consistency, Consistency, and Sequential Rationality.

    OpenAIRE

    Kreps, David M; Ramey, Garey

    1987-01-01

    Sequential equilibria comprise consistent beliefs and a sequentially ra tional strategy profile. Consistent beliefs are limits of Bayes ratio nal beliefs for sequences of strategies that approach the equilibrium strategy. Beliefs are structurally consistent if they are rationaliz ed by some single conjecture concerning opponents' strategies. Consis tent beliefs are not necessarily structurally consistent, notwithstan ding a claim by Kreps and Robert Wilson (1982). Moreover, the spirit of stru...

  19. Fully vs. Sequentially Coupled Loads Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damiani, Rick; Wendt, Fabian; Musial, Walter; Finucane, Z.; Hulliger, L.; Chilka, S.; Dolan, D.; Cushing, J.; O' Connell, D.; Falk, S.

    2017-06-19

    The design and analysis methods for offshore wind turbines must consider the aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads and response of the entire system (turbine, tower, substructure, and foundation) coupled to the turbine control system dynamics. Whereas a fully coupled (turbine and support structure) modeling approach is more rigorous, intellectual property concerns can preclude this approach. In fact, turbine control system algorithms and turbine properties are strictly guarded and often not shared. In many cases, a partially coupled analysis using separate tools and an exchange of reduced sets of data via sequential coupling may be necessary. In the sequentially coupled approach, the turbine and substructure designers will independently determine and exchange an abridged model of their respective subsystems to be used in their partners' dynamic simulations. Although the ability to achieve design optimization is sacrificed to some degree with a sequentially coupled analysis method, the central question here is whether this approach can deliver the required safety and how the differences in the results from the fully coupled method could affect the design. This work summarizes the scope and preliminary results of a study conducted for the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement aimed at quantifying differences between these approaches through aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations of two offshore wind turbines on a monopile and jacket substructure.

  20. Learning Orthographic Structure With Sequential Generative Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin; Sperduti, Alessandro; Zorzi, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in connectionist modeling. Here, we investigated a sequential version of the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a stochastic recurrent neural network that extracts high-order structure from sensory data through unsupervised generative learning and can encode contextual information in the form of internal, distributed representations. We assessed whether this type of network can extract the orthographic structure of English monosyllables by learning a generative model of the letter sequences forming a word training corpus. We show that the network learned an accurate probabilistic model of English graphotactics, which can be used to make predictions about the letter following a given context as well as to autonomously generate high-quality pseudowords. The model was compared to an extended version of simple recurrent networks, augmented with a stochastic process that allows autonomous generation of sequences, and to non-connectionist probabilistic models (n-grams and hidden Markov models). We conclude that sequential RBMs and stochastic simple recurrent networks are promising candidates for modeling cognition in the temporal domain. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  1. Sequential bargaining in a market with one seller and two different buyers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tranæs, Torben; Hendon, Ebbe

    1991-01-01

    A matching and bargaining model in a market with one seller and two buyers, differing only in their reservation price, is analyzed. No subgame perfect equilibrium exists for stationary strategies. We demonstrate the existence of inefficient equilibria in which the low buyer receives the good with...... with large probability, even as friction becomes negligible. We investigate the relationship between the use of Nash and sequential bargaining. Nash bargaining seems applicable only when the sequential approach yields a unique stationary strategy subgame perfect equilibrium...

  2. Sequential bargaining in a market with one seller and two different buyers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Tranæs, Torben

    1991-01-01

    A matching and bargaining model in a market with one seller and two buyers, differing only in their reservation price, is analyzed. No subgame perfect equilibrium exists for stationary strategies. We demonstrate the existence of inefficient equilibria in which the low buyer receives the good with...... with large probability, even as friction becomes negligible. We investigate the relationship between the use of Nash and sequential bargaining. Nash bargaining seems applicable only when the sequential approach yields a unique stationary strategy subgame perfect equilibrium....

  3. Sequential Uniformly Reweighted Sum-Product Algorithm for Cooperative Localization in Wireless Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Wei; Yang, Zhen; Hu, Haifeng

    2014-01-01

    Graphical models have been widely applied in solving distributed inference problems in wireless networks. In this paper, we formulate the cooperative localization problem in a mobile network as an inference problem on a factor graph. Using a sequential schedule of message updates, a sequential uniformly reweighted sum-product algorithm (SURW-SPA) is developed for mobile localization problems. The proposed algorithm combines the distributed nature of belief propagation (BP) with the improved p...

  4. Modelling the spatio-temporal distribution of age-1 bay of biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) at spawning time [Distribución espacio-temporal de la edad 1 de anchoa del golfo de Bizkaia (Engraulis Encrasicolus) en el momento de puesta

    KAUST Repository

    Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Uriarte, André s; Laconcha, Urtzi; Bernal, Miguel C.; Begoñ a Santos, Maria; Chifflet, Marina; Irigoien, Xabier

    2013-01-01

    during the main spawning period based on adult samples from 15 daily egg production method surveys. The proportion of age-1 individuals was modelled using generalized additive models with a binomial distribution and a logit link in relation

  5. Sequential dependencies in magnitude scaling of loudness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Jesteadt, Walt

    2013-01-01

    Ten normally hearing listeners used a programmable sone-potentiometer knob to adjust the level of a 1000-Hz sinusoid to match the loudness of numbers presented to them in a magnitude production task. Three different power-law exponents (0.15, 0.30, and 0.60) and a log-law with equal steps in d......B were used to program the sone-potentiometer. The knob settings systematically influenced the form of the loudness function. Time series analysis was used to assess the sequential dependencies in the data, which increased with increasing exponent and were greatest for the log-law. It would be possible......, therefore, to choose knob properties that minimized these dependencies. When the sequential dependencies were removed from the data, the slope of the loudness functions did not change, but the variability decreased. Sequential dependencies were only present when the level of the tone on the previous trial...

  6. Immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery: advantages and disadvantages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ranjodh; Dohlman, Thomas H; Sun, Grace

    2017-01-01

    The number of cataract surgeries performed globally will continue to rise to meet the needs of an aging population. This increased demand will require healthcare systems and providers to find new surgical efficiencies while maintaining excellent surgical outcomes. Immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) has been proposed as a solution and is increasingly being performed worldwide. The purpose of this review is to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of ISBCS. When appropriate patient selection occurs and guidelines are followed, ISBCS is comparable with delayed sequential bilateral cataract surgery in long-term patient satisfaction, visual acuity and complication rates. In addition, the risk of bilateral postoperative endophthalmitis and concerns of poorer refractive outcomes have not been supported by the literature. ISBCS is cost-effective for the patient, healthcare payors and society, but current reimbursement models in many countries create significant financial barriers for facilities and surgeons. As demand for cataract surgery rises worldwide, ISBCS will become increasingly important as an alternative to delayed sequential bilateral cataract surgery. Advantages include potentially decreased wait times for surgery, patient convenience and cost savings for healthcare payors. Although they are comparable in visual acuity and complication rates, hurdles that prevent wide adoption include liability concerns as ISBCS is not an established standard of care, economic constraints for facilities and surgeons and inability to fine-tune intraocular lens selection in the second eye. Given these considerations, an open discussion regarding the advantages and disadvantages of ISBCS is important for appropriate patient selection.

  7. Relative resilience to noise of standard and sequential approaches to measurement-based quantum computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, C. B.; Ferraro, A.

    2018-05-01

    A possible alternative to the standard model of measurement-based quantum computation (MBQC) is offered by the sequential model of MBQC—a particular class of quantum computation via ancillae. Although these two models are equivalent under ideal conditions, their relative resilience to noise in practical conditions is not yet known. We analyze this relationship for various noise models in the ancilla preparation and in the entangling-gate implementation. The comparison of the two models is performed utilizing both the gate infidelity and the diamond distance as figures of merit. Our results show that in the majority of instances the sequential model outperforms the standard one in regard to a universal set of operations for quantum computation. Further investigation is made into the performance of sequential MBQC in experimental scenarios, thus setting benchmarks for possible cavity-QED implementations.

  8. Dihydroazulene photoswitch operating in sequential tunneling regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broman, Søren Lindbæk; Lara-Avila, Samuel; Thisted, Christine Lindbjerg

    2012-01-01

    to electrodes so that the electron transport goes by sequential tunneling. To assure weak coupling, the DHA switching kernel is modified by incorporating p-MeSC6H4 end-groups. Molecules are prepared by Suzuki cross-couplings on suitable halogenated derivatives of DHA. The synthesis presents an expansion of our......, incorporating a p-MeSC6H4 anchoring group in one end, has been placed in a silver nanogap. Conductance measurements justify that transport through both DHA (high resistivity) and VHF (low resistivity) forms goes by sequential tunneling. The switching is fairly reversible and reenterable; after more than 20 ON...

  9. A Theory of Sequential Reciprocity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dufwenberg, M.; Kirchsteiger, G.

    1998-01-01

    Many experimental studies indicate that people are motivated by reciprocity. Rabin (1993) develops techniques for incorporating such concerns into game theory and economics. His model, however, does not fare well when applied to situations with an interesting dynamic structure (like many

  10. Sequential formation of subgroups in OB associations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elmegreen, B.G.; Lada, C.J.

    1977-01-01

    We reconsider the structure and formation of OB association in view of recent radio and infrared observations of the adjacent molecular clouds. As a result of this reexamination, we propose that OB subgroups are formed in a step-by-step process which involves the propagation of ionization (I) and shock (S) fronts through a molecular cloud complex. OB stars formed at the edge of a molecular cloud drive these I-S fronts into the cloud. A layer of dense neutral material accumulates between the I and S fronts and eventually becomes gravitationally unstable. This process is analyzed in detail. Several arguments concerning the temperature and mass of this layer suggest that a new OB subgroup will form. After approximately one-half million years, these stars will emerge from and disrupt the star-forming layer. A new shock will be driven into the remaining molecular cloud and will initiate another cycle of star formation.Several observed properties of OB associations are shown to follow from a sequential star-forming mechanism. These include the spatial separation and systematic differences in age of OB subgroups in a given association, the regularity of subgroup masses, the alignment of subgroups along the galactic plane, and their physical expansion. Detailed observations of ionization fronts, masers, IR sources, and molecular clouds are also in agreement with this model. Finally, this mechanism provides a means of dissipating a molecular cloud and exposing less massive stars (e.g., T Tauri stars) which may have formed ahead of the shock as part of the original cloud collapsed and fragmented

  11. Sequential lineup presentation promotes less-biased criterion setting but does not improve discriminability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil

    2012-06-01

    When compared with simultaneous lineup presentation, sequential presentation has been shown to reduce false identifications to a greater extent than it reduces correct identifications. However, there has been much debate about whether this difference in identification performance represents improved discriminability or more conservative responding. In this research, data from 22 experiments that compared sequential and simultaneous lineups were analyzed using a compound signal-detection model, which is specifically designed to describe decision-making performance on tasks such as eyewitness identification tests. Sequential (cf. simultaneous) presentation did not influence discriminability, but produced a conservative shift in response bias that resulted in less-biased choosing for sequential than simultaneous lineups. These results inform understanding of the effects of lineup presentation mode on eyewitness identification decisions.

  12. Modelling Preference Heterogeneity for Theatre Tickets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldin, Andrea; Bille, Trine

    2018-01-01

    This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer...... among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect...... of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket....

  13. Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

    2013-12-01

    Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Sequential decisions: a computational comparison of observational and reinforcement accounts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazanin Mohammadi Sepahvand

    Full Text Available Right brain damaged patients show impairments in sequential decision making tasks for which healthy people do not show any difficulty. We hypothesized that this difficulty could be due to the failure of right brain damage patients to develop well-matched models of the world. Our motivation is the idea that to navigate uncertainty, humans use models of the world to direct the decisions they make when interacting with their environment. The better the model is, the better their decisions are. To explore the model building and updating process in humans and the basis for impairment after brain injury, we used a computational model of non-stationary sequence learning. RELPH (Reinforcement and Entropy Learned Pruned Hypothesis space was able to qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce the results of left and right brain damaged patient groups and healthy controls playing a sequential version of Rock, Paper, Scissors. Our results suggests that, in general, humans employ a sub-optimal reinforcement based learning method rather than an objectively better statistical learning approach, and that differences between right brain damaged and healthy control groups can be explained by different exploration policies, rather than qualitatively different learning mechanisms.

  15. Interpretability degrees of finitely axiomatized sequential theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Albert

    In this paper we show that the degrees of interpretability of finitely axiomatized extensions-in-the-same-language of a finitely axiomatized sequential theory-like Elementary Arithmetic EA, IΣ1, or the Gödel-Bernays theory of sets and classes GB-have suprema. This partially answers a question posed

  16. Interpretability Degrees of Finitely Axiomatized Sequential Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Albert

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we show that the degrees of interpretability of finitely axiomatized extensions-in-the-same-language of a finitely axiomatized sequential theory —like Elementary Arithmetic EA, IΣ1, or the Gödel-Bernays theory of sets and classes GB— have suprema. This partially answers a question

  17. S.M.P. SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    CICIARELLI, V; LEONARD, JOSEPH

    A SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM BEGINNING WITH THE BASIC FUNDAMENTALS ON THE FOURTH GRADE LEVEL IS PRESENTED. INCLUDED ARE AN UNDERSTANDING OF OUR NUMBER SYSTEM, AND THE BASIC OPERATIONS OF WORKING WITH WHOLE NUMBERS--ADDITION, SUBTRACTION, MULTIPLICATION, AND DIVISION. COMMON FRACTIONS ARE TAUGHT IN THE FIFTH, SIXTH, AND SEVENTH GRADES. A…

  18. Sequential motor skill: cognition, perception and action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruitenberg, M.F.L.

    2013-01-01

    Discrete movement sequences are assumed to be the building blocks of more complex sequential actions that are present in our everyday behavior. The studies presented in this dissertation address the (neuro)cognitive underpinnings of such movement sequences, in particular in relationship to the role

  19. Sequential decoders for large MIMO systems

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Konpal S.; Abediseid, Walid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2014-01-01

    the Sequential Decoder using the Fano Algorithm for large MIMO systems. A parameter called the bias is varied to attain different performance-complexity trade-offs. Low values of the bias result in excellent performance but at the expense of high complexity

  20. A framework for sequential multiblock component methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jong, S.de

    2003-01-01

    Multiblock or multiset methods are starting to be used in chemistry and biology to study complex data sets. In chemometrics, sequential multiblock methods are popular; that is, methods that calculate one component at a time and use deflation for finding the next component. In this paper a framework

  1. Classical and sequential limit analysis revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblond, Jean-Baptiste; Kondo, Djimédo; Morin, Léo; Remmal, Almahdi

    2018-04-01

    Classical limit analysis applies to ideal plastic materials, and within a linearized geometrical framework implying small displacements and strains. Sequential limit analysis was proposed as a heuristic extension to materials exhibiting strain hardening, and within a fully general geometrical framework involving large displacements and strains. The purpose of this paper is to study and clearly state the precise conditions permitting such an extension. This is done by comparing the evolution equations of the full elastic-plastic problem, the equations of classical limit analysis, and those of sequential limit analysis. The main conclusion is that, whereas classical limit analysis applies to materials exhibiting elasticity - in the absence of hardening and within a linearized geometrical framework -, sequential limit analysis, to be applicable, strictly prohibits the presence of elasticity - although it tolerates strain hardening and large displacements and strains. For a given mechanical situation, the relevance of sequential limit analysis therefore essentially depends upon the importance of the elastic-plastic coupling in the specific case considered.

  2. Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); V. Capasso

    2009-01-01

    htmlabstractWe give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects

  3. Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Capasso, V.

    2009-01-01

    We give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects through a video

  4. Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-11

    maintains the flexibility of deciding sooner than the fixed sample size procedure at the price of some lower power [13, 514]. The sequential probability... markets , detection of signals with unknown arrival time in seismology, navigation, radar and sonar signal processing, speech segmentation, and the... skimming cruise missile can yield a significant increase in the probability of raid annihilation. Furthermore, usually detection systems are

  5. STABILIZED SEQUENTIAL QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING: A SURVEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damián Fernández

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We review the motivation for, the current state-of-the-art in convergence results, and some open questions concerning the stabilized version of the sequential quadratic programming algorithm for constrained optimization. We also discuss the tools required for its local convergence analysis, globalization challenges, and extentions of the method to the more general variational problems.

  6. Truly costly sequential search and oligopolistic pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Maarten C W; Moraga-González, José Luis; Wildenbeest, Matthijs R.

    We modify the paper of Stahl (1989) [Stahl, D.O., 1989. Oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search. American Economic Review 79, 700-12] by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free. When all price quotations are costly to obtain, the unique

  7. Zips : mining compressing sequential patterns in streams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, T.L.; Calders, T.G.K.; Yang, J.; Mörchen, F.; Fradkin, D.; Chau, D.H.; Vreeken, J.; Leeuwen, van M.; Faloutsos, C.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a streaming algorithm, based on the minimal description length (MDL) principle, for extracting non-redundant sequential patterns. For static databases, the MDL-based approach that selects patterns based on their capacity to compress data rather than their frequency, was shown to be

  8. How to Read the Tractatus Sequentially

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Kraft

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the unconventional features of Wittgenstein’s Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus is its use of an elaborated and detailed numbering system. Recently, Bazzocchi, Hacker und Kuusela have argued that the numbering system means that the Tractatus must be read and interpreted not as a sequentially ordered book, but as a text with a two-dimensional, tree-like structure. Apart from being able to explain how the Tractatus was composed, the tree reading allegedly solves exegetical issues both on the local (e. g. how 4.02 fits into the series of remarks surrounding it and the global level (e. g. relation between ontology and picture theory, solipsism and the eye analogy, resolute and irresolute readings. This paper defends the sequential reading against the tree reading. After presenting the challenges generated by the numbering system and the two accounts as attempts to solve them, it is argued that Wittgenstein’s own explanation of the numbering system, anaphoric references within the Tractatus and the exegetical issues mentioned above do not favour the tree reading, but a version of the sequential reading. This reading maintains that the remarks of the Tractatus form a sequential chain: The role of the numbers is to indicate how remarks on different levels are interconnected to form a concise, surveyable and unified whole.

  9. Adult Word Recognition and Visual Sequential Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, V. M.

    2012-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted investigating the role of visual sequential memory skill in the word recognition efficiency of undergraduate university students. Word recognition was assessed in a lexical decision task using regularly and strangely spelt words, and nonwords that were either standard orthographically legal strings or items made from…

  10. Terminating Sequential Delphi Survey Data Collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalaian, Sema A.; Kasim, Rafa M.

    2012-01-01

    The Delphi survey technique is an iterative mail or electronic (e-mail or web-based) survey method used to obtain agreement or consensus among a group of experts in a specific field on a particular issue through a well-designed and systematic multiple sequential rounds of survey administrations. Each of the multiple rounds of the Delphi survey…

  11. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part II - Solving the restricted SUE for the logit family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Watling, David Paul; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new class of path-based solution algorithms to solve the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium (RSUE), as introduced in Watling et al. (2015). The class allows a flexible specification of how the choice sets are systematically grown by considering congestion effects and how the flow...... real-life cases, in which we explore convergence patterns and choice set composition and size, for alternative specifications of the RSUE model and solution algorithm....

  12. Hemodynamic analysis of sequential graft from right coronary system to left coronary system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenxin; Mao, Boyan; Wang, Haoran; Geng, Xueying; Zhao, Xi; Zhang, Huixia; Xie, Jinsheng; Zhao, Zhou; Lian, Bo; Liu, Youjun

    2016-12-28

    Sequential and single grafting are two surgical procedures of coronary artery bypass grafting. However, it remains unclear if the sequential graft can be used between the right and left coronary artery system. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the possibility of right coronary artery system anastomosis to left coronary system. A patient-specific 3D model was first reconstructed based on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. Two different grafts, the normal multi-graft (Model 1) and the novel multi-graft (Model 2), were then implemented on this patient-specific model using virtual surgery techniques. In Model 1, the single graft was anastomosed to right coronary artery (RCA) and the sequential graft was adopted to anastomose left anterior descending (LAD) and left circumflex artery (LCX). While in Model 2, the single graft was anastomosed to LAD and the sequential graft was adopted to anastomose RCA and LCX. A zero-dimensional/three-dimensional (0D/3D) coupling method was used to realize the multi-scale simulation of both the pre-operative and two post-operative models. Flow rates in the coronary artery and grafts were obtained. The hemodynamic parameters were also showed, including wall shear stress (WSS) and oscillatory shear index (OSI). The area of low WSS and OSI in Model 1 was much less than that in Model 2. Model 1 shows optimistic hemodynamic modifications which may enhance the long-term patency of grafts. The anterior segments of sequential graft have better long-term patency than the posterior segments. With rational spatial position of the heart vessels, the last anastomosis of sequential graft should be connected to the main branch.

  13. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia: Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Marquez Diaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia. Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje es de 38.14 $/min para estudiantes, siendo 23% mayor para trabajadores de menor ingreso y 73% mayor para los trabajadores de mayor ingreso. Se determinó que el valor del tiempo de espera es 1.95 veces mayor que el tiempo viaje, en tanto que el tiempo de acceso mantiene una relación de 1 a 2.57 con respecto al tiempo de viaje, la cual se considera válida únicamente para el contexto estudiado.

  14. Sequential and simultaneous multiple explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Litchfield

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports two experiments comparing variants of multiple explanation applied in the early stages of a judgment task (a case involving employee theft where participants are not given a menu of response options. Because prior research has focused on situations where response options are provided to judges, we identify relevant dependent variables that an intervention might affect when such options are not given. We use these variables to build a causal model of intervention that illustrates both the intended effects of multiple explanation and some potentially competing processes that it may trigger. Although multiple explanation clearly conveys some benefits (e.g., willingness to delay action to engage in information search, increased detail, quality and confidence in alternative explanations in the present experiments, we also found evidence that it may initiate or enhance processes that attenuate its advantages (e.g., feelings that one does not need more data if one has multiple good explanations.

  15. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  16. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  17. Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

    2004-01-01

    Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

  18. Retailers and consumers in sequential auctions of collectibles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vincent Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie; Chanel, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    We analyse an independent private-value model, where heterogeneous bidders compete for objects sold in sequential second-price auctions. In this heterogeneous game, bidders may have differently distributed valuations, and some have multi-unit demand with decreasing marginal values (retailers......); others have a specific single-unit demand (consumers). By examining equilibrium bidding strategies and price sequences, we show that the presence of consumers leads to more aggressive bidding from the retailers on average and heterogeneous bidders is a plausible explanation of the price decline effect....... The study of the expected revenue of the seller confirms the interest of auctioneers in inviting different types of bidders...

  19. On-line Flagging of Anomalies and Adaptive Sequential Hypothesis Testing for Fine-feature Characterization of Geosynchronous Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-18

    model-based evidence. This work resolves cross-tag using three methods (Z-test for dependent data, classical sequential analysis and Brownian motion...Slider Movement The two-facet model is used as the Inversion Model. It represents a three-axis stabilized satellite as two facets, namely a body...the sequential analysis. If is independent and has an approximately normal distribution then Brownian motion drift analysis is used. If is

  20. Classification rates: non‐parametric verses parametric models using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research sought to establish if non parametric modeling achieves a higher correct classification ratio than a parametric model. The local likelihood technique was used to model fit the data sets. The same sets of data were modeled using parametric logit and the abilities of the two models to correctly predict the binary ...

  1. Effects of neostriatal 6-OHDA lesion on performance in a rat sequential reaction time task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domenger, D; Schwarting, R K W

    2008-10-31

    Work in humans and monkeys has provided evidence that the basal ganglia, and the neurotransmitter dopamine therein, play an important role for sequential learning and performance. Compared to primates, experimental work in rodents is rather sparse, largely due to the fact that tasks comparable to the human ones, especially serial reaction time tasks (SRTT), had been lacking until recently. We have developed a rat model of the SRTT, which allows to study neural correlates of sequential performance and motor sequence execution. Here, we report the effects of dopaminergic neostriatal lesions, performed using bilateral 6-hydroxydopamine injections, on performance of well-trained rats tested in our SRTT. Sequential behavior was measured in two ways: for one, the effects of small violations of otherwise well trained sequences were examined as a measure of attention and automation. Secondly, sequential versus random performance was compared as a measure of sequential learning. Neurochemically, the lesions led to sub-total dopamine depletions in the neostriatum, which ranged around 60% in the lateral, and around 40% in the medial neostriatum. These lesions led to a general instrumental impairment in terms of reduced speed (response latencies) and response rate, and these deficits were correlated with the degree of striatal dopamine loss. Furthermore, the violation test indicated that the lesion group conducted less automated responses. The comparison of random versus sequential responding showed that the lesion group did not retain its superior sequential performance in terms of speed, whereas they did in terms of accuracy. Also, rats with lesions did not improve further in overall performance as compared to pre-lesion values, whereas controls did. These results support previous results that neostriatal dopamine is involved in instrumental behaviour in general. Also, these lesions are not sufficient to completely abolish sequential performance, at least when acquired

  2. [Optimization and Prognosis of Cell Radiosensitivity Enhancement in vitro and in vivo after Sequential Thermoradiactive Action].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belkina, S V; Petin, V G

    2016-01-01

    Previously developed mathematical model of simultaneous action of two inactivating agents has been adapted and tested to describe the results of sequential action. The possibility of applying the mathematical model to the interpretation and prognosis of the increase in radio-sensitivity of tumor cells as well as mammalian cells after sequential action of two high temperatures or hyperthermia and ionizing radiation is analyzed. The model predicts the value of the thermal enhancement ratio depending on the duration of thermal exposure, its greatest value, and the condition under which it is achieved.

  3. Impact of Diagrams on Recalling Sequential Elements in Expository Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

    1988-01-01

    Examines the instructional effectiveness of abstract diagrams on recall of sequential relations in social science textbooks. Concludes that diagrams assist significantly the recall of sequential relations in a text and decrease significantly the rate of order mistakes. (RS)

  4. Group sequential designs for stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayling, Michael J; Wason, James Ms; Mander, Adrian P

    2017-10-01

    The stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design has received substantial attention in recent years. Although various extensions to the original design have been proposed, no guidance is available on the design of stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials with interim analyses. In an individually randomised trial setting, group sequential methods can provide notable efficiency gains and ethical benefits. We address this by discussing how established group sequential methodology can be adapted for stepped-wedge designs. Utilising the error spending approach to group sequential trial design, we detail the assumptions required for the determination of stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials with interim analyses. We consider early stopping for efficacy, futility, or efficacy and futility. We describe first how this can be done for any specified linear mixed model for data analysis. We then focus on one particular commonly utilised model and, using a recently completed stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, compare the performance of several designs with interim analyses to the classical stepped-wedge design. Finally, the performance of a quantile substitution procedure for dealing with the case of unknown variance is explored. We demonstrate that the incorporation of early stopping in stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial designs could reduce the expected sample size under the null and alternative hypotheses by up to 31% and 22%, respectively, with no cost to the trial's type-I and type-II error rates. The use of restricted error maximum likelihood estimation was found to be more important than quantile substitution for controlling the type-I error rate. The addition of interim analyses into stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials could help guard against time-consuming trials conducted on poor performing treatments and also help expedite the implementation of efficacious treatments. In future, trialists should consider incorporating early stopping of some kind into

  5. On the effect of response transformations in sequential parameter optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tobias; Wessing, Simon

    2012-01-01

    Parameter tuning of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) is attracting more and more interest. In particular, the sequential parameter optimization (SPO) framework for the model-assisted tuning of stochastic optimizers has resulted in established parameter tuning algorithms. In this paper, we enhance the SPO framework by introducing transformation steps before the response aggregation and before the actual modeling. Based on design-of-experiments techniques, we empirically analyze the effect of integrating different transformations. We show that in particular, a rank transformation of the responses provides significant improvements. A deeper analysis of the resulting models and additional experiments with adaptive procedures indicates that the rank and the Box-Cox transformation are able to improve the properties of the resultant distributions with respect to symmetry and normality of the residuals. Moreover, model-based effect plots document a higher discriminatory power obtained by the rank transformation.

  6. Rabbit model for human EBV-associated hemophagocytic syndrome (HPS): sequential autopsy analysis and characterization of IL-2-dependent cell lines established from herpesvirus papio-induced fatal rabbit lymphoproliferative diseases with HPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Kazuhiko; Jin, Zaishun; Onoda, Sachiyo; Joko, Hiromasa; Teramoto, Norihiro; Ohara, Nobuya; Oda, Wakako; Tanaka, Takehiro; Liu, Yi-Xuan; Koirala, Tirtha Raj; Oka, Takashi; Kondo, Eisaku; Yoshino, Tadashi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Akagi, Tadaatsu

    2003-05-01

    Epstein-Barr virus-associated hemophagocytic syndrome (EBV-AHS) is often associated with fatal infectious mononucleosis or T-cell lymphoproliferative diseases (LPD). To elucidate the true nature of fatal LPD observed in Herpesvirus papio (HVP)-induced rabbit hemophagocytosis, reactive or neoplastic, we analyzed sequential development of HVP-induced rabbit LPD and their cell lines. All of the seven Japanese White rabbits inoculated intravenously with HVP died of fatal LPD 18 to 27 days after inoculation. LPD was also accompanied by hemophagocytic syndrome (HPS) in five of these seven rabbits. Sequential autopsy revealed splenomegaly and swollen lymph nodes, often accompanied by bleeding, which developed in the last week. Atypical lymphoid cells infiltrated many organs with a "starry sky" pattern, frequently involving the spleen, lymph nodes, and liver. HVP-small RNA-1 expression in these lymphoid cells was clearly demonstrated by a newly developed in situ hybridization (ISH) system. HVP-ISH of immunomagnetically purified lymphoid cells from spleen or lymph nodes revealed HVP-EBER1+ cells in each CD4+, CD8+, or CD79a+ fraction. Hemophagocytic histiocytosis was observed in the lymph nodes, spleen, bone marrow, and thymus. HVP-DNA was detected in the tissues and peripheral blood from the infected rabbits by PCR or Southern blot analysis. Clonality analysis of HVP-induced LPD by Southern blotting with TCR gene probe revealed polyclonal bands, suggesting polyclonal proliferation. Six IL-2-dependent rabbit T-cell lines were established from transplanted scid mouse tumors from LPD. These showed latency type I/II HVP infection and had normal karyotypes except for one line, and three of them showed tumorigenicity in nude mice. These data suggest that HVP-induced fatal LPD in rabbits is reactive polyclonally in nature.

  7. A one-sided sequential test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Racz, A.; Lux, I. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Atomic Energy Research Inst.

    1996-04-16

    The applicability of the classical sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT) for early failure detection problems is limited by the fact that there is an extra time delay between the occurrence of the failure and its first recognition. Chien and Adams developed a method to minimize this time for the case when the problem can be formulated as testing the mean value of a Gaussian signal. In our paper we propose a procedure that can be applied for both mean and variance testing and that minimizes the time delay. The method is based on a special parametrization of the classical SPRT. The one-sided sequential tests (OSST) can reproduce the results of the Chien-Adams test when applied for mean values. (author).

  8. Documentscape: Intertextuality, Sequentiality & Autonomy at Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars Rune; Bjørn, Pernille

    2014-01-01

    On the basis of an ethnographic field study, this article introduces the concept of documentscape to the analysis of document-centric work practices. The concept of documentscape refers to the entire ensemble of documents in their mutual intertextual interlocking. Providing empirical data from...... a global software development case, we show how hierarchical structures and sequentiality across the interlocked documents are critical to how actors make sense of the work of others and what to do next in a geographically distributed setting. Furthermore, we found that while each document is created...... as part of a quasi-sequential order, this characteristic does not make the document, as a single entity, into a stable object. Instead, we found that the documents were malleable and dynamic while suspended in intertextual structures. Our concept of documentscape points to how the hierarchical structure...

  9. A minimax procedure in the context of sequential mastery testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master or a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random test item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory

  10. Applying the minimax principle to sequential mastery testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory (minimum

  11. On Locally Most Powerful Sequential Rank Tests

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 1 (2017), s. 111-125 ISSN 0747-4946 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-07384S Grant - others:Nadační fond na podporu vědy(CZ) Neuron Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : nonparametric test s * sequential ranks * stopping variable Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 0.339, year: 2016

  12. Sequential pattern recognition by maximum conditional informativity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2014), s. 39-45 ISSN 0167-8655 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-02652S; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-10911S Keywords : Multivariate statistics * Statistical pattern recognition * Sequential decision making * Product mixtures * EM algorithm * Shannon information Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Sci ence Impact factor: 1.551, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/RO/grim-0428565.pdf

  13. Comparing two Poisson populations sequentially: an application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halteman, E.J.

    1986-01-01

    Rocky Flats Plant in Golden, Colorado monitors each of its employees for radiation exposure. Excess exposure is detected by comparing the means of two Poisson populations. A sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is proposed as a replacement for the fixed sample normal approximation test. A uniformly most efficient SPRT exists, however logistics suggest using a truncated SPRT. The truncated SPRT is evaluated in detail and shown to possess large potential savings in average time spent by employees in the monitoring process

  14. Heat accumulation during sequential cortical bone drilling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmisano, Andrew C; Tai, Bruce L; Belmont, Barry; Irwin, Todd A; Shih, Albert; Holmes, James R

    2016-03-01

    Significant research exists regarding heat production during single-hole bone drilling. No published data exist regarding repetitive sequential drilling. This study elucidates the phenomenon of heat accumulation for sequential drilling with both Kirschner wires (K wires) and standard two-flute twist drills. It was hypothesized that cumulative heat would result in a higher temperature with each subsequent drill pass. Nine holes in a 3 × 3 array were drilled sequentially on moistened cadaveric tibia bone kept at body temperature (about 37 °C). Four thermocouples were placed at the center of four adjacent holes and 2 mm below the surface. A battery-driven hand drill guided by a servo-controlled motion system was used. Six samples were drilled with each tool (2.0 mm K wire and 2.0 and 2.5 mm standard drills). K wire drilling increased temperature from 5 °C at the first hole to 20 °C at holes 6 through 9. A similar trend was found in standard drills with less significant increments. The maximum temperatures of both tools increased from drill sizes was found to be insignificant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, heat accumulated during sequential drilling, with size difference being insignificant. K wire produced more heat than its twist-drill counterparts. This study has demonstrated the heat accumulation phenomenon and its significant effect on temperature. Maximizing the drilling field and reducing the number of drill passes may decrease bone injury. © 2015 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Sequential test procedures for inventory differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, A.S.; Kern, E.A.; Emeigh, C.W.

    1985-01-01

    By means of a simulation study, we investigated the appropriateness of Page's and power-one sequential tests on sequences of inventory differences obtained from an example materials control unit, a sub-area of a hypothetical UF 6 -to-U 3 O 8 conversion process. The study examined detection probability and run length curves obtained from different loss scenarios. 12 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Getting the right balance? A mixed logit analysis of the relationship between UK training doctors' characteristics and their specialties using the 2013 National Training Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Santana, Idaira; Chalkley, Martin

    2017-08-11

    To analyse how training doctors' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics vary according to the specialty that they are training for. Descriptive statistics and mixed logistic regression analysis of cross-sectional survey data to quantify evidence of systematic relationships between doctors' characteristics and their specialty. Doctors in training in the United Kingdom in 2013. 27 530 doctors in training but not in their foundation year who responded to the National Training Survey 2013. Mixed logit regression estimates and the corresponding odds ratios (calculated separately for all doctors in training and a subsample comprising those educated in the UK), relating gender, age, ethnicity, place of studies, socioeconomic background and parental education to the probability of training for a particular specialty. Being female and being white British increase the chances of being in general practice with respect to any other specialty, while coming from a better-off socioeconomic background and having parents with tertiary education have the opposite effect. Mixed results are found for age and place of studies. For example, the difference between men and women is greatest for surgical specialties for which a man is 12.121 times more likely to be training to a surgical specialty (relative to general practice) than a woman (p-valuevalue<0.01). There are systematic and substantial differences between specialties in respect of training doctors' gender, ethnicity, age and socioeconomic background. The persistent underrepresentation in some specialties of women, minority ethnic groups and of those coming from disadvantaged backgrounds will impact on the representativeness of the profession into the future. Further research is needed to understand how the processes of selection and the self-selection of applicants into specialties gives rise to these observed differences. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  17. Strategic Path Planning by Sequential Parametric Bayesian Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baro Hyun

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to generate a path for a mobile agent that carries sensors used for classification, where the path is to optimize strategic objectives that account for misclassification and the consequences of misclassification, and where the weights assigned to these consequences are chosen by a strategist. We propose a model that accounts for the interaction between the agent kinematics (i.e., the ability to move, informatics (i.e., the ability to process data to information, classification (i.e., the ability to classify objects based on the information, and strategy (i.e., the mission objective. Within this model, we pose and solve a sequential decision problem that accounts for strategist preferences and the solution to the problem yields a sequence of kinematic decisions of a moving agent. The solution of the sequential decision problem yields the following flying tactics: “approach only objects whose suspected identity matters to the strategy”. These tactics are numerically illustrated in several scenarios.

  18. Mean-Variance-Validation Technique for Sequential Kriging Metamodels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Tae Hee; Kim, Ho Sung

    2010-01-01

    The rigorous validation of the accuracy of metamodels is an important topic in research on metamodel techniques. Although a leave-k-out cross-validation technique involves a considerably high computational cost, it cannot be used to measure the fidelity of metamodels. Recently, the mean 0 validation technique has been proposed to quantitatively determine the accuracy of metamodels. However, the use of mean 0 validation criterion may lead to premature termination of a sampling process even if the kriging model is inaccurate. In this study, we propose a new validation technique based on the mean and variance of the response evaluated when sequential sampling method, such as maximum entropy sampling, is used. The proposed validation technique is more efficient and accurate than the leave-k-out cross-validation technique, because instead of performing numerical integration, the kriging model is explicitly integrated to accurately evaluate the mean and variance of the response evaluated. The error in the proposed validation technique resembles a root mean squared error, thus it can be used to determine a stop criterion for sequential sampling of metamodels

  19. A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyang Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

  20. Indications of de Sitter spacetime from classical sequential growth dynamics of causal sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Maqbool; Rideout, David

    2010-01-01

    A large class of the dynamical laws for causal sets described by a classical process of sequential growth yields a cyclic universe, whose cycles of expansion and contraction are punctuated by single 'origin elements' of the causal set. We present evidence that the effective dynamics of the immediate future of one of these origin elements, within the context of the sequential growth dynamics, yields an initial period of de Sitter-like exponential expansion, and argue that the resulting picture has many attractive features as a model of the early universe, with the potential to solve some of the standard model puzzles without any fine-tuning.

  1. Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

    2013-01-01

    A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

  2. Optimal Energy Management of Multi-Microgrids with Sequentially Coordinated Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nah-Oak Song

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available We propose an optimal electric energy management of a cooperative multi-microgrid community with sequentially coordinated operations. The sequentially coordinated operations are suggested to distribute computational burden and yet to make the optimal 24 energy management of multi-microgrids possible. The sequential operations are mathematically modeled to find the optimal operation conditions and illustrated with physical interpretation of how to achieve optimal energy management in the cooperative multi-microgrid community. This global electric energy optimization of the cooperative community is realized by the ancillary internal trading between the microgrids in the cooperative community which reduces the extra cost from unnecessary external trading by adjusting the electric energy production amounts of combined heat and power (CHP generators and amounts of both internal and external electric energy trading of the cooperative community. A simulation study is also conducted to validate the proposed mathematical energy management models.

  3. Reliability assessment of restructured power systems using reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Yi; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit; Billinton, Roy; Karki, Rajesh

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a technique to evaluate reliability of a restructured power system with a bilateral market. The proposed technique is based on the combination of the reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation approaches. The reliability network equivalent techniques have been implemented in the Monte Carlo simulation procedure to reduce the computational burden of the analysis. Pseudo-sequential simulation has been used to increase the computational efficiency of the non-sequential simulation method and to model the chronological aspects of market trading and system operation. Multi-state Markov models for generation and transmission systems are proposed and implemented in the simulation. A new load shedding scheme is proposed during generation inadequacy and network congestion to minimize the load curtailment. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is used to illustrate the technique. (author)

  4. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATION CAPABILITY IN PORTUGUESE SERVICES FIRMS: A LOGIT APPROACH DETERMINANTES INTERNOS Y EXTERNOS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE INNOVAR DE LAS EMPRESAS DE SERVICIOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT DETERMINANTES INTERNOS E EXTERNOS DA CAPACIDADE INOVADORA DAS EMPRESAS DE SERVIÇOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research examined the degree of importance of factors internal and external determinants of innovative company, under the Portuguese service companies. Based on the literature has built up a conceptual model and hypotheses were formulated several research have been tested empirically, using the secondary data provided by the Center for Science  and Higher Education (OCES, belonging to the 4th Community Innovation Survey (CIS 4, supervised by EUROSTAT. The method was to use logistic regression. According to the results, as greater financial investment in internal  research activities and development in acquisition of external knowledge and marketing activities in the greater propensity of firms to innovate at the level of services. The results allow a joint analysis of the factors that promote and restrict the innovative capacity of service companies, which identify the main determinants and improve the knowledge on innovation in services. The contribution of the results refers to the identification of which factors are really important in stimulating innovation in service firms.Esta investigación analizó el grado de importancia de los factores internos y externos determinantes de la capacidad innovadora empresarial en el ámbito de las empresas de servicios portuguesas. Con base en la literatura se construyó un  modelo conceptual y se formularon varias hipótesis de investigación que fueron testadas empíricamente, utilizándose los datos secundarios facultados por el “Observatorio de Ciencia y de la Enseñanza Superior” (OCES, pertenecientes a la 4ª Indagación Comunitaria a la Innovación (CIS 4, bajo la supervisión de EUROSTAT. El método utilizado fue la regresión logística. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, cuanto mayores sean las inversiones financieras en actividades internas de investigación y desarrollo, en adquisición de conocimientos externos y en actividades de marketing, mayor es la

  5. The statistical decay of very hot nuclei: from sequential decay to multifragmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, B.V.; Donangelo, R.; Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo; Souza, S.R.; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Lynch, W.G.; Steiner, A.W.; Tsang, M.B.

    2010-01-01

    Full text. At low excitation energies, the compound nucleus typically decays through the sequential emission of light particles. As the energy increases, the emission probability of heavier fragments increases until, at sufficiently high energies, several heavy complex fragments are emitted during the decay. The extent to which this fragment emission is simultaneous or sequential has been a subject of theoretical and experimental study for almost 30 years. The Statistical Multifragmentation Model, an equilibrium model of simultaneous fragment emission, uses the configurations of a statistical ensemble to determine the distribution of primary fragments of a compound nucleus. The primary fragments are then assumed to decay by sequential compound emission or Fermi breakup. As the first step toward a more unified model of these processes, we demonstrate the equivalence of a generalized Fermi breakup model, in which densities of excited states are taken into account, to the microcanonical version of the statistical multifragmentation model. We then establish a link between this unified Fermi breakup / statistical multifragmentation model and the well-known process of compound nucleus emission, which permits to consider simultaneous and sequential emission on the same footing. Within this unified framework, we analyze the increasing importance of simultaneous, multifragment decay with increasing excitation energy and decreasing lifetime of the compound nucleus. (author)

  6. Online Sequential Projection Vector Machine with Adaptive Data Mean Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Jia, Ji-Ting; Zhang, Qiong; Deng, Wan-Yu; Wei, Wei

    2016-01-01

    We propose a simple online learning algorithm especial for high-dimensional data. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential projection vector machine (OSPVM) which derives from projection vector machine and can learn from data in one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk mode. In OSPVM, data centering, dimension reduction, and neural network training are integrated seamlessly. In particular, the model parameters including (1) the projection vectors for dimension reduction, (2) the input weights, biases, and output weights, and (3) the number of hidden nodes can be updated simultaneously. Moreover, only one parameter, the number of hidden nodes, needs to be determined manually, and this makes it easy for use in real applications. Performance comparison was made on various high-dimensional classification problems for OSPVM against other fast online algorithms including budgeted stochastic gradient descent (BSGD) approach, adaptive multihyperplane machine (AMM), primal estimated subgradient solver (Pegasos), online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM), and SVD + OSELM (feature selection based on SVD is performed before OSELM). The results obtained demonstrated the superior generalization performance and efficiency of the OSPVM.

  7. Online Sequential Projection Vector Machine with Adaptive Data Mean Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a simple online learning algorithm especial for high-dimensional data. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential projection vector machine (OSPVM which derives from projection vector machine and can learn from data in one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk mode. In OSPVM, data centering, dimension reduction, and neural network training are integrated seamlessly. In particular, the model parameters including (1 the projection vectors for dimension reduction, (2 the input weights, biases, and output weights, and (3 the number of hidden nodes can be updated simultaneously. Moreover, only one parameter, the number of hidden nodes, needs to be determined manually, and this makes it easy for use in real applications. Performance comparison was made on various high-dimensional classification problems for OSPVM against other fast online algorithms including budgeted stochastic gradient descent (BSGD approach, adaptive multihyperplane machine (AMM, primal estimated subgradient solver (Pegasos, online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM, and SVD + OSELM (feature selection based on SVD is performed before OSELM. The results obtained demonstrated the superior generalization performance and efficiency of the OSPVM.

  8. Mobility of radionuclides based on sequential extraction of soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salbu, B.; Oughton, D.H.; Lien, H.N.; Oestby, G.; Strand, P.

    1992-01-01

    Since 1989, core samples of soil and vegetation from semi-natural pastures have been collected at selected sites in Norway during the growing season. The activity concentrations in soil and vegetation as well as transfer coefficients vary significantly between regions, within regions and even within sampling plot areas. In order to differentiate between mobil and inert fractions of radioactive and stable isotopes of Cs and Sr in soils, samples were extracted sequentially using agents with increasing dissolution power. The reproducibility of the sequential extraction technique is good and the data obtained seems most informative. As the distribution pattern for radioactive and stable isotopes of Cs and Sr are similar, a high degree of isotopic exchange is indicated. Based on easily leachable fractions, mobility factors are calculated. In general the mobility of 90 Sr is higher than for 137 Cs. Mobility factors are not significantly influenced by seasonal variations, but a decrease in the mobile fraction in soil with time is indicated. Mobility factors should be considered useful for modelling purposes. (au)

  9. Sequentially firing neurons confer flexible timing in neural pattern generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Alexander; Ermentrout, Bard

    2011-01-01

    Neuronal networks exhibit a variety of complex spatiotemporal patterns that include sequential activity, synchrony, and wavelike dynamics. Inhibition is the primary means through which such patterns are implemented. This behavior is dependent on both the intrinsic dynamics of the individual neurons as well as the connectivity patterns. Many neural circuits consist of networks of smaller subcircuits (motifs) that are coupled together to form the larger system. In this paper, we consider a particularly simple motif, comprising purely inhibitory interactions, which generates sequential periodic dynamics. We first describe the dynamics of the single motif both for general balanced coupling (all cells receive the same number and strength of inputs) and then for a specific class of balanced networks: circulant systems. We couple these motifs together to form larger networks. We use the theory of weak coupling to derive phase models which, themselves, have a certain structure and symmetry. We show that this structure endows the coupled system with the ability to produce arbitrary timing relationships between symmetrically coupled motifs and that the phase relationships are robust over a wide range of frequencies. The theory is applicable to many other systems in biology and physics.

  10. Breaking from binaries - using a sequential mixed methods design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Patricia Mary; Begley, Cecily Marion; Devane, Declan

    2014-03-01

    To outline the traditional worldviews of healthcare research and discuss the benefits and challenges of using mixed methods approaches in contributing to the development of nursing and midwifery knowledge. There has been much debate about the contribution of mixed methods research to nursing and midwifery knowledge in recent years. A sequential exploratory design is used as an exemplar of a mixed methods approach. The study discussed used a combination of focus-group interviews and a quantitative instrument to obtain a fuller understanding of women's experiences of childbirth. In the mixed methods study example, qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis and quantitative data using regression analysis. Polarised debates about the veracity, philosophical integrity and motivation for conducting mixed methods research have largely abated. A mixed methods approach can contribute to a deeper, more contextual understanding of a variety of subjects and experiences; as a result, it furthers knowledge that can be used in clinical practice. The purpose of the research study should be the main instigator when choosing from an array of mixed methods research designs. Mixed methods research offers a variety of models that can augment investigative capabilities and provide richer data than can a discrete method alone. This paper offers an example of an exploratory, sequential approach to investigating women's childbirth experiences. A clear framework for the conduct and integration of the different phases of the mixed methods research process is provided. This approach can be used by practitioners and policy makers to improve practice.

  11. On Locally Most Powerful Sequential Rank Tests

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 1 (2017), s. 111-125 ISSN 0747-4946 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-07384S Grant - others:Nadační fond na podporu vědy(CZ) Neuron Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : nonparametric test s * sequential ranks * stopping variable Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 0.339, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/SI/kalina-0474065.pdf

  12. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIAL SEQUENTIALLY-TIMED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav LICHOROBIEC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article documents the development of the noninvasive use of explosives during the destruction of ice mass in river flows. The system of special sequentially-timed charges utilizes the increase in efficiency of cutting charges by covering them with bags filled with water, while simultaneously increasing the effect of the entire system of timed charges. Timing, spatial combinations during placement, and the linking of these charges results in the loosening of ice barriers on a frozen waterway, while at the same time regulating the size of the ice fragments. The developed charges will increase the operability and safety of IRS units.

  13. Pass-transistor asynchronous sequential circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Sterling R.; Maki, Gary K.

    1989-01-01

    Design methods for asynchronous sequential pass-transistor circuits, which result in circuits that are hazard- and critical-race-free and which have added degrees of freedom for the input signals, are discussed. The design procedures are straightforward and easy to implement. Two single-transition-time state assignment methods are presented, and hardware bounds for each are established. A surprising result is that the hardware realizations for each next state variable and output variable is identical for a given flow table. Thus, a state machine with N states and M outputs can be constructed using a single layout replicated N + M times.

  14. Estimation After a Group Sequential Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel; Kenward, Michael G; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie; Verbeke, Geert

    2015-10-01

    Group sequential trials are one important instance of studies for which the sample size is not fixed a priori but rather takes one of a finite set of pre-specified values, dependent on the observed data. Much work has been devoted to the inferential consequences of this design feature. Molenberghs et al (2012) and Milanzi et al (2012) reviewed and extended the existing literature, focusing on a collection of seemingly disparate, but related, settings, namely completely random sample sizes, group sequential studies with deterministic and random stopping rules, incomplete data, and random cluster sizes. They showed that the ordinary sample average is a viable option for estimation following a group sequential trial, for a wide class of stopping rules and for random outcomes with a distribution in the exponential family. Their results are somewhat surprising in the sense that the sample average is not optimal, and further, there does not exist an optimal, or even, unbiased linear estimator. However, the sample average is asymptotically unbiased, both conditionally upon the observed sample size as well as marginalized over it. By exploiting ignorability they showed that the sample average is the conventional maximum likelihood estimator. They also showed that a conditional maximum likelihood estimator is finite sample unbiased, but is less efficient than the sample average and has the larger mean squared error. Asymptotically, the sample average and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator are equivalent. This previous work is restricted, however, to the situation in which the the random sample size can take only two values, N = n or N = 2 n . In this paper, we consider the more practically useful setting of sample sizes in a the finite set { n 1 , n 2 , …, n L }. It is shown that the sample average is then a justifiable estimator , in the sense that it follows from joint likelihood estimation, and it is consistent and asymptotically unbiased. We also show why

  15. A sequential/parallel track selector

    CERN Document Server

    Bertolino, F; Bressani, Tullio; Chiavassa, E; Costa, S; Dellacasa, G; Gallio, M; Musso, A

    1980-01-01

    A medium speed ( approximately 1 mu s) hardware pre-analyzer for the selection of events detected in four planes of drift chambers in the magnetic field of the Omicron Spectrometer at the CERN SC is described. Specific geometrical criteria determine patterns of hits in the four planes of vertical wires that have to be recognized and that are stored as patterns of '1's in random access memories. Pairs of good hits are found sequentially, then the RAMs are used as look-up tables. (6 refs).

  16. Boundary conditions in random sequential adsorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieśla, Michał; Ziff, Robert M.

    2018-04-01

    The influence of different boundary conditions on the density of random packings of disks is studied. Packings are generated using the random sequential adsorption algorithm with three different types of boundary conditions: periodic, open, and wall. It is found that the finite size effects are smallest for periodic boundary conditions, as expected. On the other hand, in the case of open and wall boundaries it is possible to introduce an effective packing size and a constant correction term to significantly improve the packing densities.

  17. Sequential extraction of uranium metal contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murry, M.M.; Spitz, H.B.; Connick, W.B.

    2016-01-01

    Samples of uranium contaminated dirt collected from the dirt floor of an abandoned metal rolling mill were analyzed for uranium using a sequential extraction protocol involving a series of five increasingly aggressive solvents. The quantity of uranium extracted from the contaminated dirt by each reagent can aid in predicting the fate and transport of the uranium contamination in the environment. Uranium was separated from each fraction using anion exchange, electrodeposition and analyzed by alpha spectroscopy analysis. Results demonstrate that approximately 77 % of the uranium was extracted using NH 4 Ac in 25 % acetic acid. (author)

  18. Simultaneous optimization of sequential IMRT plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popple, Richard A.; Prellop, Perri B.; Spencer, Sharon A.; Santos, Jennifer F. de los; Duan, Jun; Fiveash, John B.; Brezovich, Ivan A.

    2005-01-01

    Radiotherapy often comprises two phases, in which irradiation of a volume at risk for microscopic disease is followed by a sequential dose escalation to a smaller volume either at a higher risk for microscopic disease or containing only gross disease. This technique is difficult to implement with intensity modulated radiotherapy, as the tolerance doses of critical structures must be respected over the sum of the two plans. Techniques that include an integrated boost have been proposed to address this problem. However, clinical experience with such techniques is limited, and many clinicians are uncomfortable prescribing nonconventional fractionation schemes. To solve this problem, we developed an optimization technique that simultaneously generates sequential initial and boost IMRT plans. We have developed an optimization tool that uses a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) and a high level programming language for technical computing. The tool uses the TPS to calculate the dose deposition coefficients (DDCs) for optimization. The DDCs were imported into external software and the treatment ports duplicated to create the boost plan. The initial, boost, and tolerance doses were specified and used to construct cost functions. The initial and boost plans were optimized simultaneously using a gradient search technique. Following optimization, the fluence maps were exported to the TPS for dose calculation. Seven patients treated using sequential techniques were selected from our clinical database. The initial and boost plans used to treat these patients were developed independently of each other by dividing the tolerance doses proportionally between the initial and boost plans and then iteratively optimizing the plans until a summation that met the treatment goals was obtained. We used the simultaneous optimization technique to generate plans that met the original planning goals. The coverage of the initial and boost target volumes in the simultaneously optimized

  19. Transaction costs and sequential bargaining in transferable discharge permit markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netusil, N R; Braden, J B

    2001-03-01

    Market-type mechanisms have been introduced and are being explored for various environmental programs. Several existing programs, however, have not attained the cost savings that were initially projected. Modeling that acknowledges the role of transactions costs and the discrete, bilateral, and sequential manner in which trades are executed should provide a more realistic basis for calculating potential cost savings. This paper presents empirical evidence on potential cost savings by examining a market for the abatement of sediment from farmland. Empirical results based on a market simulation model find no statistically significant change in mean abatement costs under several transaction cost levels when contracts are randomly executed. An alternative method of contract execution, gain-ranked, yields similar results. At the highest transaction cost level studied, trading reduces the total cost of compliance relative to a uniform standard that reflects current regulations.

  20. Sequential Service Restoration for Unbalanced Distribution Systems and Microgrids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Bo; Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Butler-Purry, Karen L.

    2017-01-01

    The resilience and reliability of modern power systems are threatened by increasingly severe weather events and cyber-physical security events. An effective restoration methodology is desired to optimally integrate emerging smart grid technologies and pave the way for developing self-healing smart grids. In this paper, a sequential service restoration (SSR) framework is proposed to generate restoration solutions for distribution systems and microgrids in the event of large-scale power outages. The restoration solution contains a sequence of control actions that properly coordinate switches, distributed generators, and switchable loads to form multiple isolated microgrids. The SSR can be applied for three-phase unbalanced distribution systems and microgrids and can adapt to various operation conditions. Mathematical models are introduced for three-phase unbalanced power flow, voltage regulators, transformers, and loads. Furthermore, the SSR problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model, and its effectiveness is evaluated via the modified IEEE 123 node test feeder.

  1. The use of sequential indicator simulation to characterize geostatistical uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, K.M.

    1992-10-01

    Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) is a geostatistical technique designed to aid in the characterization of uncertainty about the structure or behavior of natural systems. This report discusses a simulation experiment designed to study the quality of uncertainty bounds generated using SIS. The results indicate that, while SIS may produce reasonable uncertainty bounds in many situations, factors like the number and location of available sample data, the quality of variogram models produced by the user, and the characteristics of the geologic region to be modeled, can all have substantial effects on the accuracy and precision of estimated confidence limits. It is recommended that users of SIS conduct validation studies for the technique on their particular regions of interest before accepting the output uncertainty bounds

  2. Monte Carlo Tree Search for Continuous and Stochastic Sequential Decision Making Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couetoux, Adrien

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis, I studied sequential decision making problems, with a focus on the unit commitment problem. Traditionally solved by dynamic programming methods, this problem is still a challenge, due to its high dimension and to the sacrifices made on the accuracy of the model to apply state of the art methods. I investigated on the applicability of Monte Carlo Tree Search methods for this problem, and other problems that are single player, stochastic and continuous sequential decision making problems. In doing so, I obtained a consistent and anytime algorithm, that can easily be combined with existing strong heuristic solvers. (author)

  3. Impact of sequential disorder on the scaling behavior of airplane boarding time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Yongjoo; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2013-05-01

    Airplane boarding process is an example where disorder properties of the system are relevant to the emergence of universality classes. Based on a simple model, we present a systematic analysis of finite-size effects in boarding time, and propose a comprehensive view of the role of sequential disorder in the scaling behavior of boarding time against the plane size. Using numerical simulations and mathematical arguments, we find how the scaling behavior depends on the number of seat columns and the range of sequential disorder. Our results show that new scaling exponents can arise as disorder is localized to varying extents.

  4. Sequential Classification of Palm Gestures Based on A* Algorithm and MLP Neural Network for Quadrocopter Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wodziński Marek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an alternative approach to the sequential data classification, based on traditional machine learning algorithms (neural networks, principal component analysis, multivariate Gaussian anomaly detector and finding the shortest path in a directed acyclic graph, using A* algorithm with a regression-based heuristic. Palm gestures were used as an example of the sequential data and a quadrocopter was the controlled object. The study includes creation of a conceptual model and practical construction of a system using the GPU to ensure the realtime operation. The results present the classification accuracy of chosen gestures and comparison of the computation time between the CPU- and GPU-based solutions.

  5. Double tracer autoradiographic method for sequential evaluation of regional cerebral perfusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, H.; Tsuji, S.; Oba, H.; Kinuya, K.; Terada, H.; Sumiya, H.; Shiba, K.; Mori, H.; Hisada, K.; Maeda, T.

    1989-01-01

    A new double tracer autoradiographic method for the sequential evaluation of altered regional cerebral perfusion in the same animal is presented. This method is based on the sequential injection of two tracers, 99m Tc-hexamethylpropyleneamine oxime and N-isopropyl-( 125 I)p-iodoamphetamine. This method is validated in the assessment of brovincamine effects on regional cerebral perfusion in an experimental model of chronic brain ischemia in the rat. The drug enhanced perfusion recovery in low-flow areas, selectively in surrounding areas of infarction. The results suggest that this technique is of potential use in the study of neuropharmacological effects applied during the experiment

  6. Hybrid Computerized Adaptive Testing: From Group Sequential Design to Fully Sequential Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiyu; Lin, Haiyan; Chang, Hua-Hua; Douglas, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) and multistage testing (MST) have become two of the most popular modes in large-scale computer-based sequential testing. Though most designs of CAT and MST exhibit strength and weakness in recent large-scale implementations, there is no simple answer to the question of which design is better because different…

  7. Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2018-01-23

    Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

  8. Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

    2014-03-18

    A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

  9. Extending the Simultaneous-Sequential Paradigm to Measure Perceptual Capacity for Features and Words

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharff, Alec; Palmer, John; Moore, Cathleen M.

    2011-01-01

    In perception, divided attention refers to conditions in which multiple stimuli are relevant to an observer. To measure the effect of divided attention in terms of perceptual capacity, we introduce an extension of the simultaneous-sequential paradigm. The extension makes predictions for fixed-capacity models as well as for unlimited-capacity…

  10. Examining Age-Related Movement Representations for Sequential (Fine-Motor) Finger Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbard, Carl; Cacola, Priscila; Bobbio, Tatiana

    2011-01-01

    Theory suggests that imagined and executed movement planning relies on internal models for action. Using a chronometry paradigm to compare the movement duration of imagined and executed movements, we tested children aged 7-11 years and adults on their ability to perform sequential finger movements. Underscoring this tactic was our desire to gain a…

  11. A Comparison of Ultimate Loads from Fully and Sequentially Coupled Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendt, Fabian F [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Damiani, Rick R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-14

    This poster summarizes the scope and preliminary results of a study conducted for the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement aimed at quantifying differences between two modeling approaches (fully coupled and sequentially coupled) through aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations of two offshore wind turbines on a monopile and jacket substructure.

  12. Comparison on models for genetic evaluation of non-return rate and success in first insemination of the Danish Holstein cow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, C; Su, G

    2010-01-01

    The aim of is study was to compare a linear Gaussian model with logit model and probit model for genetic evaluation of non-return rate within 56 d after first-insemination (NRR56) and success in first insemination (SFI). The whole dataset used in the analysis contained 471,742 records from...... the EBV of proven bulls, obtained from the whole dataset and from a reduced dataset which only contains the first-crop daughters of sires; 2) χ2 statistic for the expected and observed frequency in a cross validation. Heritabilities estimated using linear, probit and logit models were 0.011, 0.014 and 0....... Model validation showed that there was no difference between probit model and logit model, but the two models were better than linear model in stability and predictive ability for genetic evaluation of NRR56 and SFI. However, based on the whole dataset, the correlations between EBV estimated using...

  13. Sequential probability ratio controllers for safeguards radiation monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehlau, P.E.; Coop, K.L.; Nixon, K.V.

    1984-01-01

    Sequential hypothesis tests applied to nuclear safeguards accounting methods make the methods more sensitive to detecting diversion. The sequential tests also improve transient signal detection in safeguards radiation monitors. This paper describes three microprocessor control units with sequential probability-ratio tests for detecting transient increases in radiation intensity. The control units are designed for three specific applications: low-intensity monitoring with Poisson probability ratios, higher intensity gamma-ray monitoring where fixed counting intervals are shortened by sequential testing, and monitoring moving traffic where the sequential technique responds to variable-duration signals. The fixed-interval controller shortens a customary 50-s monitoring time to an average of 18 s, making the monitoring delay less bothersome. The controller for monitoring moving vehicles benefits from the sequential technique by maintaining more than half its sensitivity when the normal passage speed doubles

  14. Decentralized enforcement, sequential bargaining, and the clean development mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hovi, Jon

    2001-07-01

    While there is a vast literature both on international bargaining and on how international agreements can be enforced, very little work has been done on how bargaining and enforcement interact. An important exception is Fearon (1998), who models international cooperation as a two-stage process in which the bargaining process is constrained by a need for decentralized enforcement (meaning that the agreement must be enforced by the parties themselves rather than a third party, such as a court). Using the Clean Development Mechanism as an example, the present paper proposes a different model of this kind of interaction. The model follows Fearon's in so far as we both use the infinitely repeated Prisoners' Dilemma to capture the enforcement phase of the game. However, while Fearon depicts the bargaining stage as a War of Attrition, the present model sees that stage as a sequential bargaining game of the Staahl-Rubinstein type. The implications of the present model are compared both to those of the Staahl-Rubinstein model and to those of the Fearon model. A surprising conclusion is that a need for decentralized enforcement tends to make the bargaining outcome more symmetrical than otherwise. Thus, the impact of bargaining power is actually smaller when the resulting agreement must be enforced by the parties themselves than it is if enforcement is taken care of by a third party. (author)

  15. Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

    OpenAIRE

    Bagley, Michael N.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1997-01-01

    This study examines three models of the individual’s preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted p2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 =0.64). A nested logit model is...

  16. Equivalence between quantum simultaneous games and quantum sequential games

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Naoki

    2007-01-01

    A framework for discussing relationships between different types of games is proposed. Within the framework, quantum simultaneous games, finite quantum simultaneous games, quantum sequential games, and finite quantum sequential games are defined. In addition, a notion of equivalence between two games is defined. Finally, the following three theorems are shown: (1) For any quantum simultaneous game G, there exists a quantum sequential game equivalent to G. (2) For any finite quantum simultaneo...

  17. Discrimination between sequential and simultaneous virtual channels with electrical hearing

    OpenAIRE

    Landsberger, David; Galvin, John J.

    2011-01-01

    In cochlear implants (CIs), simultaneous or sequential stimulation of adjacent electrodes can produce intermediate pitch percepts between those of the component electrodes. However, it is unclear whether simultaneous and sequential virtual channels (VCs) can be discriminated. In this study, CI users were asked to discriminate simultaneous and sequential VCs; discrimination was measured for monopolar (MP) and bipolar + 1 stimulation (BP + 1), i.e., relatively broad and focused stimulation mode...

  18. C-quence: a tool for analyzing qualitative sequential data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Starkey; Collier, Nicholson T

    2002-02-01

    C-quence is a software application that matches sequential patterns of qualitative data specified by the user and calculates the rate of occurrence of these patterns in a data set. Although it was designed to facilitate analyses of face-to-face interaction, it is applicable to any data set involving categorical data and sequential information. C-quence queries are constructed using a graphical user interface. The program does not limit the complexity of the sequential patterns specified by the user.

  19. Discrimination between sequential and simultaneous virtual channels with electrical hearing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsberger, David; Galvin, John J

    2011-09-01

    In cochlear implants (CIs), simultaneous or sequential stimulation of adjacent electrodes can produce intermediate pitch percepts between those of the component electrodes. However, it is unclear whether simultaneous and sequential virtual channels (VCs) can be discriminated. In this study, CI users were asked to discriminate simultaneous and sequential VCs; discrimination was measured for monopolar (MP) and bipolar + 1 stimulation (BP + 1), i.e., relatively broad and focused stimulation modes. For sequential VCs, the interpulse interval (IPI) varied between 0.0 and 1.8 ms. All stimuli were presented at comfortably loud, loudness-balanced levels at a 250 pulse per second per electrode (ppse) stimulation rate. On average, CI subjects were able to reliably discriminate between sequential and simultaneous VCs. While there was no significant effect of IPI or stimulation mode on VC discrimination, some subjects exhibited better VC discrimination with BP + 1 stimulation. Subjects' discrimination between sequential and simultaneous VCs was correlated with electrode discrimination, suggesting that spatial selectivity may influence perception of sequential VCs. To maintain equal loudness, sequential VC amplitudes were nearly double those of simultaneous VCs, presumably resulting in a broader spread of excitation. These results suggest that perceptual differences between simultaneous and sequential VCs might be explained by differences in the spread of excitation. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

  20. Lineup composition, suspect position, and the sequential lineup advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Curt A; Gronlund, Scott D; Clark, Steven E

    2008-06-01

    N. M. Steblay, J. Dysart, S. Fulero, and R. C. L. Lindsay (2001) argued that sequential lineups reduce the likelihood of mistaken eyewitness identification. Experiment 1 replicated the design of R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985), the first study to show the sequential lineup advantage. However, the innocent suspect was chosen at a lower rate in the simultaneous lineup, and no sequential lineup advantage was found. This led the authors to hypothesize that protection from a sequential lineup might emerge only when an innocent suspect stands out from the other lineup members. In Experiment 2, participants viewed a simultaneous or sequential lineup with either the guilty suspect or 1 of 3 innocent suspects. Lineup fairness was varied to influence the degree to which a suspect stood out. A sequential lineup advantage was found only for the unfair lineups. Additional analyses of suspect position in the sequential lineups showed an increase in the diagnosticity of suspect identifications as the suspect was placed later in the sequential lineup. These results suggest that the sequential lineup advantage is dependent on lineup composition and suspect position. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  1. Group-sequential analysis may allow for early trial termination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerke, Oke; Vilstrup, Mie H; Halekoh, Ulrich

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG-PET/CT mea......BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG...

  2. Logit Model of Analysing the Factors Affecting the Adoption of Goat Raising Activity by Farmers in the Non-pastoral Centre Region of Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folefack, AJZ.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Three years after the beginning of a goat project in the Centre region of Cameroon, the engagement of farmers in this activity has been timid. As this region is not a traditional pastoral zone, farmers have not yet incorporated the crop-livestock integration into their habits. Hence, this paper uses a logistic regression approach in order to analyse the factors affecting the adoption of goat raising activity by farmers of this locality. The computed odds ratio indicate that the practice of goat raising activity is significantly influenced by the farmer's age, gender, farming experience, practice of other livestock activities, frequency of contact with extension agents, access to credit and farm income. However, being a goat raiser does not depend on the farmer's marital status, education, farm size, household size, membership into a common initiative group. The study therefore recommends that the government authorities should give more attention to significant factors so as to popularize the goat raising activity in this region.

  3. Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schön, Thomas B.; Svensson, Andreas; Murray, Lawrence; Lindsten, Fredrik

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state-space models. There is no closed-form solution available for this problem, implying that we are forced to use approximations. In this tutorial we will provide a self-contained introduction to one of the state-of-the-art methods-the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm-which has proven to offer a practical approximation. This is a Monte Carlo based method, where the particle filter is used to guide a Markov chain Monte Carlo method through the parameter space. One of the key merits of the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is that it is guaranteed to converge to the "true solution" under mild assumptions, despite being based on a particle filter with only a finite number of particles. We will also provide a motivating numerical example illustrating the method using a modeling language tailored for sequential Monte Carlo methods. The intention of modeling languages of this kind is to open up the power of sophisticated Monte Carlo methods-including particle Metropolis-Hastings-to a large group of users without requiring them to know all the underlying mathematical details.

  4. Sequential infiltration synthesis for advanced lithography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darling, Seth B.; Elam, Jeffrey W.; Tseng, Yu-Chih; Peng, Qing

    2017-10-10

    A plasma etch resist material modified by an inorganic protective component via sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS) and methods of preparing the modified resist material. The modified resist material is characterized by an improved resistance to a plasma etching or related process relative to the unmodified resist material, thereby allowing formation of patterned features into a substrate material, which may be high-aspect ratio features. The SIS process forms the protective component within the bulk resist material through a plurality of alternating exposures to gas phase precursors which infiltrate the resist material. The plasma etch resist material may be initially patterned using photolithography, electron-beam lithography or a block copolymer self-assembly process.

  5. Clinical evaluation of synthetic aperture sequential beamforming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Møller; Hemmsen, Martin Christian; Lange, Theis

    2012-01-01

    In this study clinically relevant ultrasound images generated with synthetic aperture sequential beamforming (SASB) is compared to images generated with a conventional technique. The advantage of SASB is the ability to produce high resolution ultrasound images with a high frame rate and at the same...... time massively reduce the amount of generated data. SASB was implemented in a system consisting of a conventional ultrasound scanner connected to a PC via a research interface. This setup enables simultaneous recording with both SASB and conventional technique. Eighteen volunteers were ultrasound...... scanned abdominally, and 84 sequence pairs were recorded. Each sequence pair consists of two simultaneous recordings of the same anatomical location with SASB and conventional B-mode imaging. The images were evaluated in terms of spatial resolution, contrast, unwanted artifacts, and penetration depth...

  6. Sequential cooling insert for turbine stator vane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Russel B

    2017-04-04

    A sequential flow cooling insert for a turbine stator vane of a small gas turbine engine, where the impingement cooling insert is formed as a single piece from a metal additive manufacturing process such as 3D metal printing, and where the insert includes a plurality of rows of radial extending impingement cooling air holes alternating with rows of radial extending return air holes on a pressure side wall, and where the insert includes a plurality of rows of chordwise extending second impingement cooling air holes on a suction side wall. The insert includes alternating rows of radial extending cooling air supply channels and return air channels that form a series of impingement cooling on the pressure side followed by the suction side of the insert.

  7. Gleason-Busch theorem for sequential measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flatt, Kieran; Barnett, Stephen M.; Croke, Sarah

    2017-12-01

    Gleason's theorem is a statement that, given some reasonable assumptions, the Born rule used to calculate probabilities in quantum mechanics is essentially unique [A. M. Gleason, Indiana Univ. Math. J. 6, 885 (1957), 10.1512/iumj.1957.6.56050]. We show that Gleason's theorem contains within it also the structure of sequential measurements, and along with this the state update rule. We give a small set of axioms, which are physically motivated and analogous to those in Busch's proof of Gleason's theorem [P. Busch, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 120403 (2003), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.120403], from which the familiar Kraus operator form follows. An axiomatic approach has practical relevance as well as fundamental interest, in making clear those assumptions which underlie the security of quantum communication protocols. Interestingly, the two-time formalism is seen to arise naturally in this approach.

  8. Multilevel sequential Monte-Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2016-01-01

    Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods provide a powerful computational technique for reducing the computational cost of estimating expectations for a given computational effort. They are particularly relevant for computational problems when approximate distributions are determined via a resolution parameter h, with h=0 giving the theoretical exact distribution (e.g. SDEs or inverse problems with PDEs). The method provides a benefit by coupling samples from successive resolutions, and estimating differences of successive expectations. We develop a methodology that brings Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) algorithms within the framework of the Multilevel idea, as SMC provides a natural set-up for coupling samples over different resolutions. We prove that the new algorithm indeed preserves the benefits of the multilevel principle, even if samples at all resolutions are now correlated.

  9. Sequential Stereotype Priming: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidder, Ciara K; White, Katherine R; Hinojos, Michelle R; Sandoval, Mayra; Crites, Stephen L

    2017-08-01

    Psychological interest in stereotype measurement has spanned nearly a century, with researchers adopting implicit measures in the 1980s to complement explicit measures. One of the most frequently used implicit measures of stereotypes is the sequential priming paradigm. The current meta-analysis examines stereotype priming, focusing specifically on this paradigm. To contribute to ongoing discussions regarding methodological rigor in social psychology, one primary goal was to identify methodological moderators of the stereotype priming effect-whether priming is due to a relation between the prime and target stimuli, the prime and target response, participant task, stereotype dimension, stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA), and stimuli type. Data from 39 studies yielded 87 individual effect sizes from 5,497 participants. Analyses revealed that stereotype priming is significantly moderated by the presence of prime-response relations, participant task, stereotype dimension, target stimulus type, SOA, and prime repetition. These results carry both practical and theoretical implications for future research on stereotype priming.

  10. Sequential Acral Lentiginous Melanomas of the Foot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiro Uehara

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A 64-year-old Japanese woman had a lightly brown-blackish pigmented macule (1.2 cm in diameter on the left sole of her foot. She received surgical excision following a diagnosis of acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM, which was confirmed histopathologically. One month after the operation, a second melanoma lesion was noticed adjacent to the grafted site. Histopathologically, the two lesions had no continuity, but HMB-45 and cyclin D1 double-positive cells were detected not only on aggregates of atypical melanocytes but also on single cells near the cutting edge of the first lesion. The unique occurrence of a sequential lesion of a primary melanoma might be caused by stimulated subclinical field cells during the wound healing process following the initial operation. This case warrants further investigation to establish the appropriate surgical margin of ALM lesions.

  11. Dancing Twins: Stellar Hierarchies That Formed Sequentially?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokovinin, Andrei

    2018-04-01

    This paper draws attention to the class of resolved triple stars with moderate ratios of inner and outer periods (possibly in a mean motion resonance) and nearly circular, mutually aligned orbits. Moreover, stars in the inner pair are twins with almost identical masses, while the mass sum of the inner pair is comparable to the mass of the outer component. Such systems could be formed either sequentially (inside-out) by disk fragmentation with subsequent accretion and migration, or by a cascade hierarchical fragmentation of a rotating cloud. Orbits of the outer and inner subsystems are computed or updated in four such hierarchies: LHS 1070 (GJ 2005, periods 77.6 and 17.25 years), HIP 9497 (80 and 14.4 years), HIP 25240 (1200 and 47.0 years), and HIP 78842 (131 and 10.5 years).

  12. Multilevel sequential Monte-Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2016-01-05

    Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods provide a powerful computational technique for reducing the computational cost of estimating expectations for a given computational effort. They are particularly relevant for computational problems when approximate distributions are determined via a resolution parameter h, with h=0 giving the theoretical exact distribution (e.g. SDEs or inverse problems with PDEs). The method provides a benefit by coupling samples from successive resolutions, and estimating differences of successive expectations. We develop a methodology that brings Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) algorithms within the framework of the Multilevel idea, as SMC provides a natural set-up for coupling samples over different resolutions. We prove that the new algorithm indeed preserves the benefits of the multilevel principle, even if samples at all resolutions are now correlated.

  13. Sequential Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradford R Hirsch

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC has changed dramatically in the past decade. As the number of available agents, and related volume of research, has grown, it is increasingly complex to know how to optimally treat patients. The authors are practicing medical oncologists at the US Oncology Network, the largest community-based network of oncology providers in the country, and represent the leadership of the Network's Genitourinary Research Committee. We outline our thought process in approaching sequential therapy of mRCC and the use of real-world data to inform our approach. We also highlight the evolving literature that will impact practicing oncologists in the near future.

  14. Prosody and alignment: a sequential perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczepek Reed, Beatrice

    2010-12-01

    In their analysis of a corpus of classroom interactions in an inner city high school, Roth and Tobin describe how teachers and students accomplish interactional alignment by prosodically matching each other's turns. Prosodic matching, and specific prosodic patterns are interpreted as signs of, and contributions to successful interactional outcomes and positive emotions. Lack of prosodic matching, and other specific prosodic patterns are interpreted as features of unsuccessful interactions, and negative emotions. This forum focuses on the article's analysis of the relation between interpersonal alignment, emotion and prosody. It argues that prosodic matching, and other prosodic linking practices, play a primarily sequential role, i.e. one that displays the way in which participants place and design their turns in relation to other participants' turns. Prosodic matching, rather than being a conversational action in itself, is argued to be an interactional practice (Schegloff 1997), which is not always employed for the accomplishment of `positive', or aligning actions.

  15. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  16. Comparison of four mathematical models for the calculation of radioimmunoassay data of LH, FSH and GH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geier, T.; Rohde, W.

    1981-01-01

    Weighted linear logit-log regression, point-to-point logit-log interpolation, smoothing spline approximation and the four-parameter logistic function calculated by non-linear regression have been compared. The data for comparison have been obtained from two different pool-sera for each of the LH-, FSH- and GH-RIA and from the basal serum LH values of two populations of children. The Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank test was used for comparison: For GH there is no significant difference between all methods, for FSH the weighted linear logit-log regression and spline approximation appeared to be equivalent, but for LH no unequivocal assertion can be made. There is no significant difference between the mathematical models for determination of hormone concentration within one assay run of a population as exemplified for LH. In addition, pool sera data were subjected to an analysis of variance and the comparison of the results revealed that the different models did not lead to different statements about assay performance. The point-to-point logit-log interpolation is proposed as most simple curvilinear approximation for assays which cannot be linearized by logit-log transformation. (author)

  17. Bursts and heavy tails in temporal and sequential dynamics of foraging decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanghoon Jung

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental understanding of behavior requires predicting when and what an individual will choose. However, the actual temporal and sequential dynamics of successive choices made among multiple alternatives remain unclear. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that there is a general bursting property in both the timing and sequential patterns of foraging decisions. We conducted a foraging experiment in which rats chose among four different foods over a continuous two-week time period. Regarding when choices were made, we found bursts of rapidly occurring actions, separated by time-varying inactive periods, partially based on a circadian rhythm. Regarding what was chosen, we found sequential dynamics in affective choices characterized by two key features: (a a highly biased choice distribution; and (b preferential attachment, in which the animals were more likely to choose what they had previously chosen. To capture the temporal dynamics, we propose a dual-state model consisting of active and inactive states. We also introduce a satiation-attainment process for bursty activity, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process for longer inactivity between bursts. For the sequential dynamics, we propose a dual-control model consisting of goal-directed and habit systems, based on outcome valuation and choice history, respectively. This study provides insights into how the bursty nature of behavior emerges from the interaction of different underlying systems, leading to heavy tails in the distribution of behavior over time and choices.

  18. Memory and decision making: Effects of sequential presentation of probabilities and outcomes in risky prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millroth, Philip; Guath, Mona; Juslin, Peter

    2018-06-07

    The rationality of decision making under risk is of central concern in psychology and other behavioral sciences. In real-life, the information relevant to a decision often arrives sequentially or changes over time, implying nontrivial demands on memory. Yet, little is known about how this affects the ability to make rational decisions and a default assumption is rather that information about outcomes and probabilities are simultaneously available at the time of the decision. In 4 experiments, we show that participants receiving probability- and outcome information sequentially report substantially (29 to 83%) higher certainty equivalents than participants with simultaneous presentation. This holds also for monetary-incentivized participants with perfect recall of the information. Participants in the sequential conditions often violate stochastic dominance in the sense that they pay more for a lottery with low probability of an outcome than participants in the simultaneous condition pay for a high probability of the same outcome. Computational modeling demonstrates that Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) fails to account for the effects of sequential presentation, but a model assuming anchoring-and adjustment constrained by memory can account for the data. By implication, established assumptions of rationality may need to be reconsidered to account for the effects of memory in many real-life tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Bursts and Heavy Tails in Temporal and Sequential Dynamics of Foraging Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kanghoon; Jang, Hyeran; Kralik, Jerald D.; Jeong, Jaeseung

    2014-01-01

    A fundamental understanding of behavior requires predicting when and what an individual will choose. However, the actual temporal and sequential dynamics of successive choices made among multiple alternatives remain unclear. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that there is a general bursting property in both the timing and sequential patterns of foraging decisions. We conducted a foraging experiment in which rats chose among four different foods over a continuous two-week time period. Regarding when choices were made, we found bursts of rapidly occurring actions, separated by time-varying inactive periods, partially based on a circadian rhythm. Regarding what was chosen, we found sequential dynamics in affective choices characterized by two key features: (a) a highly biased choice distribution; and (b) preferential attachment, in which the animals were more likely to choose what they had previously chosen. To capture the temporal dynamics, we propose a dual-state model consisting of active and inactive states. We also introduce a satiation-attainment process for bursty activity, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process for longer inactivity between bursts. For the sequential dynamics, we propose a dual-control model consisting of goal-directed and habit systems, based on outcome valuation and choice history, respectively. This study provides insights into how the bursty nature of behavior emerges from the interaction of different underlying systems, leading to heavy tails in the distribution of behavior over time and choices. PMID:25122498

  20. Simultaneous versus sequential penetrating keratoplasty and cataract surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Ken; Hayashi, Hideyuki

    2006-10-01

    To compare the surgical outcomes of simultaneous penetrating keratoplasty and cataract surgery with those of sequential surgery. Thirty-nine eyes of 39 patients scheduled for simultaneous keratoplasty and cataract surgery and 23 eyes of 23 patients scheduled for sequential keratoplasty and secondary phacoemulsification surgery were recruited. Refractive error, regular and irregular corneal astigmatism determined by Fourier analysis, and endothelial cell loss were studied at 1 week and 3, 6, and 12 months after combined surgery in the simultaneous surgery group or after subsequent phacoemulsification surgery in the sequential surgery group. At 3 and more months after surgery, mean refractive error was significantly greater in the simultaneous surgery group than in the sequential surgery group, although no difference was seen at 1 week. The refractive error at 12 months was within 2 D of that targeted in 15 eyes (39%) in the simultaneous surgery group and within 2 D in 16 eyes (70%) in the sequential surgery group; the incidence was significantly greater in the sequential group (P = 0.0344). The regular and irregular astigmatism was not significantly different between the groups at 3 and more months after surgery. No significant difference was also found in the percentage of endothelial cell loss between the groups. Although corneal astigmatism and endothelial cell loss were not different, refractive error from target refraction was greater after simultaneous keratoplasty and cataract surgery than after sequential surgery, indicating a better outcome after sequential surgery than after simultaneous surgery.

  1. Reading Remediation Based on Sequential and Simultaneous Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnison, Judy; And Others

    1982-01-01

    The theory postulating a dichotomy between sequential and simultaneous processing is reviewed and its implications for remediating reading problems are reviewed. Research is cited on sequential-simultaneous processing for early and advanced reading. A list of remedial strategies based on the processing dichotomy addresses decoding and lexical…

  2. Induction of simultaneous and sequential malolactic fermentation in durian wine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniasuri, Fransisca; Lee, Pin-Rou; Liu, Shao-Quan

    2016-08-02

    This study represented for the first time the impact of malolactic fermentation (MLF) induced by Oenococcus oeni and its inoculation strategies (simultaneous vs. sequential) on the fermentation performance as well as aroma compound profile of durian wine. There was no negative impact of simultaneous inoculation of O. oeni and Saccharomyces cerevisiae on the growth and fermentation kinetics of S. cerevisiae as compared to sequential fermentation. Simultaneous MLF did not lead to an excessive increase in volatile acidity as compared to sequential MLF. The kinetic changes of organic acids (i.e. malic, lactic, succinic, acetic and α-ketoglutaric acids) varied with simultaneous and sequential MLF relative to yeast alone. MLF, regardless of inoculation mode, resulted in higher production of fermentation-derived volatiles as compared to control (alcoholic fermentation only), including esters, volatile fatty acids, and terpenes, except for higher alcohols. Most indigenous volatile sulphur compounds in durian were decreased to trace levels with little differences among the control, simultaneous and sequential MLF. Among the different wines, the wine with simultaneous MLF had higher concentrations of terpenes and acetate esters while sequential MLF had increased concentrations of medium- and long-chain ethyl esters. Relative to alcoholic fermentation only, both simultaneous and sequential MLF reduced acetaldehyde substantially with sequential MLF being more effective. These findings illustrate that MLF is an effective and novel way of modulating the volatile and aroma compound profile of durian wine. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

    2013-01-01

    Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential

  4. Sequential, progressive, equal-power, reflective beam-splitter arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhart, Paul K.

    2017-11-01

    The equations to calculate equal-power reflectivity of a sequential series of beam splitters is presented. Non-sequential optical design examples are offered for uniform illumination using diode lasers. Objects created using Boolean operators and Swept Surfaces can create objects capable of reflecting light into predefined elevation and azimuth angles. Analysis of the illumination patterns for the array are also presented.

  5. The sequential price of anarchy for atomic congestion games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Jasper; Uetz, Marc Jochen; Liu, Tie-Yan; Qi, Qi; Ye, Yinyu

    2014-01-01

    In situations without central coordination, the price of anarchy relates the quality of any Nash equilibrium to the quality of a global optimum. Instead of assuming that all players choose their actions simultaneously, we consider games where players choose their actions sequentially. The sequential

  6. Quantum Probability Zero-One Law for Sequential Terminal Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Wulf

    1980-07-01

    On the basis of the Jauch-Piron quantum probability calculus a zero-one law for sequential terminal events is proven, and the significance of certain crucial axioms in the quantum probability calculus is discussed. The result shows that the Jauch-Piron set of axioms is appropriate for the non-Boolean algebra of sequential events.

  7. Lineup Composition, Suspect Position, and the Sequential Lineup Advantage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Curt A.; Gronlund, Scott D.; Clark, Steven E.

    2008-01-01

    N. M. Steblay, J. Dysart, S. Fulero, and R. C. L. Lindsay (2001) argued that sequential lineups reduce the likelihood of mistaken eyewitness identification. Experiment 1 replicated the design of R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985), the first study to show the sequential lineup advantage. However, the innocent suspect was chosen at a lower rate…

  8. Constrained treatment planning using sequential beam selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woudstra, E.; Storchi, P.R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper an algorithm is described for automated treatment plan generation. The algorithm aims at delivery of the prescribed dose to the target volume without violation of constraints for target, organs at risk and the surrounding normal tissue. Pre-calculated dose distributions for all candidate orientations are used as input. Treatment beams are selected in a sequential way. A score function designed for beam selection is used for the simultaneous selection of beam orientations and weights. In order to determine the optimum choice for the orientation and the corresponding weight of each new beam, the score function is first redefined to account for the dose distribution of the previously selected beams. Addition of more beams to the plan is stopped when the target dose is reached or when no additional dose can be delivered without violating a constraint. In the latter case the score function is modified by importance factor changes to enforce better sparing of the organ with the limiting constraint and the algorithm is run again. (author)

  9. Phenomenology of the next sequential lepton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzo, T.G.

    1980-01-01

    We consider the phenomenology of a sequential, charged lepton in the mass range 6 --13 GeV. We find the semileptonic branching ratio of such a lepton to be approx. 13%; the dominant two-body modes are found to include the decay L → ν/sub L/F* with a branching ratio approx. 6%. In this analysis we assume that the mass of the lepton under consideration is lighter than the t quark such that decays such as L → ν/sub L/t-barq, where q= (d, s, or b) are kinematically forbidden. We also find that decays such as L → ν/sub L/B* (c-barb) can also be as large as approx. 6% depending on the mixing angles; the lifetime of such a lepton is found to be approx. 2.6 x 10 -12 M/sub L/ -5 sec, where M/sub L/ is in GeV

  10. The Origin of Sequential Chromospheric Brightenings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, M. S.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Jackiewicz, J.; Gilbert, H. R.

    2017-06-01

    Sequential chromospheric brightenings (SCBs) are often observed in the immediate vicinity of erupting flares and are associated with coronal mass ejections. Since their initial discovery in 2005, there have been several subsequent investigations of SCBs. These studies have used differing detection and analysis techniques, making it difficult to compare results between studies. This work employs the automated detection algorithm of Kirk et al. (Solar Phys. 283, 97, 2013) to extract the physical characteristics of SCBs in 11 flares of varying size and intensity. We demonstrate that the magnetic substructure within the SCB appears to have a significantly smaller area than the corresponding Hα emission. We conclude that SCBs originate in the lower corona around 0.1 R_{⊙} above the photosphere, propagate away from the flare center at speeds of 35 - 85 km s^{-1}, and have peak photosphere magnetic intensities of 148±2.9 G. In light of these measurements, we infer SCBs to be distinctive chromospheric signatures of erupting coronal mass ejections.

  11. Sequential decoders for large MIMO systems

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Konpal S.

    2014-05-01

    Due to their ability to provide high data rates, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems have become increasingly popular. Decoding of these systems with acceptable error performance is computationally very demanding. In this paper, we employ the Sequential Decoder using the Fano Algorithm for large MIMO systems. A parameter called the bias is varied to attain different performance-complexity trade-offs. Low values of the bias result in excellent performance but at the expense of high complexity and vice versa for higher bias values. Numerical results are done that show moderate bias values result in a decent performance-complexity trade-off. We also attempt to bound the error by bounding the bias, using the minimum distance of a lattice. The variations in complexity with SNR have an interesting trend that shows room for considerable improvement. Our work is compared against linear decoders (LDs) aided with Element-based Lattice Reduction (ELR) and Complex Lenstra-Lenstra-Lovasz (CLLL) reduction. © 2014 IFIP.

  12. Sequential acquisition of mutations in myelodysplastic syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makishima, Hideki

    2017-01-01

    Recent progress in next-generation sequencing technologies allows us to discover frequent mutations throughout the coding regions of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), potentially providing us with virtually a complete spectrum of driver mutations in this disease. As shown by many study groups these days, such driver mutations are acquired in a gene-specific fashion. For instance, DDX41 mutations are observed in germline cells long before MDS presentation. In blood samples from healthy elderly individuals, somatic DNMT3A and TET2 mutations are detected as age-related clonal hematopoiesis and are believed to be a risk factor for hematological neoplasms. In MDS, mutations of genes such as NRAS and FLT3, designated as Type-1 genes, may be significantly associated with leukemic evolution. Another type (Type-2) of genes, including RUNX1 and GATA2, are related to progression from low-risk to high-risk MDS. Overall, various driver mutations are sequentially acquired in MDS, at a specific time, in either germline cells, normal hematopoietic cells, or clonal MDS cells.

  13. Building a Lego wall: Sequential action selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Amy; Wing, Alan M; Rotshtein, Pia

    2017-05-01

    The present study draws together two distinct lines of enquiry into the selection and control of sequential action: motor sequence production and action selection in everyday tasks. Participants were asked to build 2 different Lego walls. The walls were designed to have hierarchical structures with shared and dissociated colors and spatial components. Participants built 1 wall at a time, under low and high load cognitive states. Selection times for correctly completed trials were measured using 3-dimensional motion tracking. The paradigm enabled precise measurement of the timing of actions, while using real objects to create an end product. The experiment demonstrated that action selection was slowed at decision boundary points, relative to boundaries where no between-wall decision was required. Decision points also affected selection time prior to the actual selection window. Dual-task conditions increased selection errors. Errors mostly occurred at boundaries between chunks and especially when these required decisions. The data support hierarchical control of sequenced behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  15. Comparison of ablation centration after bilateral sequential versus simultaneous LASIK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jane-Ming; Tsai, Yi-Yu

    2005-01-01

    To compare ablation centration after bilateral sequential and simultaneous myopic LASIK. A retrospective randomized case series was performed of 670 eyes of 335 consecutive patients who had undergone either bilateral sequential (group 1) or simultaneous (group 2) myopic LASIK between July 2000 and July 2001 at the China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan. The ablation centrations of the first and second eyes in the two groups were compared 3 months postoperatively. Of 670 eyes, 274 eyes (137 patients) comprised the sequential group and 396 eyes (198 patients) comprised the simultaneous group. Three months post-operatively, 220 eyes of 110 patients (80%) in the sequential group and 236 eyes of 118 patients (60%) in the simultaneous group provided topographic data for centration analysis. For the first eyes, mean decentration was 0.39 +/- 0.26 mm in the sequential group and 0.41 +/- 0.19 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .30). For the second eyes, mean decentration was 0.28 +/- 0.23 mm in the sequential group and 0.30 +/- 0.21 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .36). Decentration in the second eyes significantly improved in both groups (group 1, P = .02; group 2, P sequential group and 0.32 +/- 0.18 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .33). The difference of ablation center angles between the first and second eyes was 43.2 sequential group and 45.1 +/- 50.8 degrees in the simultaneous group (P = .42). Simultaneous bilateral LASIK is comparable to sequential surgery in ablation centration.

  16. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  17. Fast sequential Monte Carlo methods for counting and optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Rubinstein, Reuven Y; Vaisman, Radislav

    2013-01-01

    A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the

  18. District heating in sequential energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Urban; Werner, Sven

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► European excess heat recovery and utilisation by district heat distribution. ► Heat recovery in district heating systems – a structural energy efficiency measure. ► Introduction of new theoretical concepts to express excess heat recovery. ► Fourfold potential for excess heat utilisation in EU27 compared to current levels. ► Large scale excess heat recovery – a collaborative challenge for future Europe. -- Abstract: Increased recovery of excess heat from thermal power generation and industrial processes has great potential to reduce primary energy demands in EU27. In this study, current excess heat utilisation levels by means of district heat distribution are assessed and expressed by concepts such as recovery efficiency, heat recovery rate, and heat utilisation rate. For two chosen excess heat activities, current average EU27 heat recovery levels are compared to currently best Member State practices, whereby future potentials of European excess heat recovery and utilisation are estimated. The principle of sequential energy supply is elaborated to capture the conceptual idea of excess heat recovery in district heating systems as a structural and organisational energy efficiency measure. The general conditions discussed concerning expansion of heat recovery into district heating systems include infrastructure investments in district heating networks, collaboration agreements, maintained value chains, policy support, world market energy prices, allocation of synergy benefits, and local initiatives. The main conclusion from this study is that a future fourfold increase of current EU27 excess heat utilisation by means of district heat distribution to residential and service sectors is conceived as plausible if applying best Member State practice. This estimation is higher than the threefold increase with respect to direct feasible distribution costs estimated by the same authors in a previous study. Hence, no direct barriers appear with

  19. Large-scale sequential quadratic programming algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldersveld, S.K.

    1992-09-01

    The problem addressed is the general nonlinear programming problem: finding a local minimizer for a nonlinear function subject to a mixture of nonlinear equality and inequality constraints. The methods studied are in the class of sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithms, which have previously proved successful for problems of moderate size. Our goal is to devise an SQP algorithm that is applicable to large-scale optimization problems, using sparse data structures and storing less curvature information but maintaining the property of superlinear convergence. The main features are: 1. The use of a quasi-Newton approximation to the reduced Hessian of the Lagrangian function. Only an estimate of the reduced Hessian matrix is required by our algorithm. The impact of not having available the full Hessian approximation is studied and alternative estimates are constructed. 2. The use of a transformation matrix Q. This allows the QP gradient to be computed easily when only the reduced Hessian approximation is maintained. 3. The use of a reduced-gradient form of the basis for the null space of the working set. This choice of basis is more practical than an orthogonal null-space basis for large-scale problems. The continuity condition for this choice is proven. 4. The use of incomplete solutions of quadratic programming subproblems. Certain iterates generated by an active-set method for the QP subproblem are used in place of the QP minimizer to define the search direction for the nonlinear problem. An implementation of the new algorithm has been obtained by modifying the code MINOS. Results and comparisons with MINOS and NPSOL are given for the new algorithm on a set of 92 test problems.

  20. Sequential method for the assessment of innovations in computer assisted industrial processes; Metodo secuencial para evaluacion de innovaciones en procesos industriales asistido por computadora

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suarez Antola, R [Universidad Catolica del Uruguay, Montevideo (Uruguay); Artucio, G [Ministerio de Industria Energia y Mineria. Direccion Nacional de Tecnologia Nuclear, Montevideo (Uruguay)

    1995-08-01

    A sequential method for the assessment of innovations in industrial processes is proposed, using suitable combinations of mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of dynamics. Some advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed. tabs.

  1. An Efficient System Based On Closed Sequential Patterns for Web Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Utpala Niranjan; R.B.V. Subramanyam; V-Khana

    2010-01-01

    Sequential pattern mining, since its introduction has received considerable attention among the researchers with broad applications. The sequential pattern algorithms generally face problems when mining long sequential patterns or while using very low support threshold. One possible solution of such problems is by mining the closed sequential patterns, which is a condensed representation of sequential patterns. Recently, several researchers have utilized the sequential pattern discovery for d...

  2. Sequential data access with Oracle and Hadoop: a performance comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranowski, Zbigniew; Canali, Luca; Grancher, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The Hadoop framework has proven to be an effective and popular approach for dealing with 'Big Data' and, thanks to its scaling ability and optimised storage access, Hadoop Distributed File System-based projects such as MapReduce or HBase are seen as candidates to replace traditional relational database management systems whenever scalable speed of data processing is a priority. But do these projects deliver in practice? Does migrating to Hadoop's 'shared nothing' architecture really improve data access throughput? And, if so, at what cost? Authors answer these questions–addressing cost/performance as well as raw performance– based on a performance comparison between an Oracle-based relational database and Hadoop's distributed solutions like MapReduce or HBase for sequential data access. A key feature of our approach is the use of an unbiased data model as certain data models can significantly favour one of the technologies tested.

  3. An exploratory sequential design to validate measures of moral emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez, Margarita G; Delgado, Ana R

    2017-05-01

    This paper presents an exploratory and sequential mixed methods approach in validating measures of knowledge of the moral emotions of contempt, anger and disgust. The sample comprised 60 participants in the qualitative phase when a measurement instrument was designed. Item stems, response options and correction keys were planned following the results obtained in a descriptive phenomenological analysis of the interviews. In the quantitative phase, the scale was used with a sample of 102 Spanish participants, and the results were analysed with the Rasch model. In the qualitative phase, salient themes included reasons, objects and action tendencies. In the quantitative phase, good psychometric properties were obtained. The model fit was adequate. However, some changes had to be made to the scale in order to improve the proportion of variance explained. Substantive and methodological im-plications of this mixed-methods study are discussed. Had the study used a single re-search method in isolation, aspects of the global understanding of contempt, anger and disgust would have been lost.

  4. Multi-Temporal Land Cover Classification with Sequential Recurrent Encoders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rußwurm, Marc; Körner, Marco

    2018-03-01

    Earth observation (EO) sensors deliver data with daily or weekly temporal resolution. Most land use and land cover (LULC) approaches, however, expect cloud-free and mono-temporal observations. The increasing temporal capabilities of today's sensors enables the use of temporal, along with spectral and spatial features. Domains, such as speech recognition or neural machine translation, work with inherently temporal data and, today, achieve impressive results using sequential encoder-decoder structures. Inspired by these sequence-to-sequence models, we adapt an encoder structure with convolutional recurrent layers in order to approximate a phenological model for vegetation classes based on a temporal sequence of Sentinel 2 (S2) images. In our experiments, we visualize internal activations over a sequence of cloudy and non-cloudy images and find several recurrent cells, which reduce the input activity for cloudy observations. Hence, we assume that our network has learned cloud-filtering schemes solely from input data, which could alleviate the need for tedious cloud-filtering as a preprocessing step for many EO approaches. Moreover, using unfiltered temporal series of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance data, we achieved in our experiments state-of-the-art classification accuracies on a large number of crop classes with minimal preprocessing compared to other classification approaches.

  5. Parameter sampling capabilities of sequential and simultaneous data assimilation: I. Analytical comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossum, Kristian; Mannseth, Trond

    2014-01-01

    We assess the parameter sampling capabilities of some Bayesian, ensemble-based, joint state-parameter (JS) estimation methods. The forward model is assumed to be non-chaotic and have nonlinear components, and the emphasis is on results obtained for the parameters in the state-parameter vector. A variety of approximate sampling methods exist, and a number of numerical comparisons between such methods have been performed. Often, more than one of the defining characteristics vary from one method to another, so it can be difficult to point out which characteristic of the more successful method in such a comparison was decisive. In this study, we single out one defining characteristic for comparison; whether or not data are assimilated sequentially or simultaneously. The current paper is concerned with analytical investigations into this issue. We carefully select one sequential and one simultaneous JS method for the comparison. We also design a corresponding pair of pure parameter estimation methods, and we show how the JS methods and the parameter estimation methods are pairwise related. It is shown that the sequential and the simultaneous parameter estimation methods are equivalent for one particular combination of observations with different degrees of nonlinearity. Strong indications are presented for why one may expect the sequential parameter estimation method to outperform the simultaneous parameter estimation method for all other combinations of observations. Finally, the conditions for when similar relations can be expected to hold between the corresponding JS methods are discussed. A companion paper, part II (Fossum and Mannseth 2014 Inverse Problems 30 114003), is concerned with statistical analysis of results from a range of numerical experiments involving sequential and simultaneous JS estimation, where the design of the numerical investigation is motivated by our findings in the current paper. (paper)

  6. Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han

    This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.

  7. An anomaly detection and isolation scheme with instance-based learning and sequential analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, T. S.; Garcia, H. E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an online anomaly detection and isolation (FDI) technique using an instance-based learning method combined with a sequential change detection and isolation algorithm. The proposed method uses kernel density estimation techniques to build statistical models of the given empirical data (null hypothesis). The null hypothesis is associated with the set of alternative hypotheses modeling the abnormalities of the systems. A decision procedure involves a sequential change detection and isolation algorithm. Notably, the proposed method enjoys asymptotic optimality as the applied change detection and isolation algorithm is optimal in minimizing the worst mean detection/isolation delay for a given mean time before a false alarm or a false isolation. Applicability of this methodology is illustrated with redundant sensor data set and its performance. (authors)

  8. A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

  9. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  10. Further comments on the sequential probability ratio testing methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulacsy, K. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Central Research Inst. for Physics

    1997-05-23

    The Bayesian method for belief updating proposed in Racz (1996) is examined. The interpretation of the belief function introduced therein is found, and the method is compared to the classical binary Sequential Probability Ratio Testing method (SPRT). (author).

  11. Sequential lineups: shift in criterion or decision strategy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronlund, Scott D

    2004-04-01

    R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985) argued that a sequential lineup enhanced discriminability because it elicited use of an absolute decision strategy. E. B. Ebbesen and H. D. Flowe (2002) argued that a sequential lineup led witnesses to adopt a more conservative response criterion, thereby affecting bias, not discriminability. Height was encoded as absolute (e.g., 6 ft [1.83 m] tall) or relative (e.g., taller than). If a sequential lineup elicited an absolute decision strategy, the principle of transfer-appropriate processing predicted that performance should be best when height was encoded absolutely. Conversely, if a simultaneous lineup elicited a relative decision strategy, performance should be best when height was encoded relatively. The predicted interaction was observed, providing direct evidence for the decision strategies explanation of what happens when witnesses view a sequential lineup.

  12. Relations between the simultaneous and sequential transfer of two nucleons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satchler, G.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author discusses the perturbative treatment of simultaneous and sequential two-nucleon transfer reactions with special regards to the DWBA. As examples the (t,p), (p,t), and (α,d) reactions are considered. (HSI)

  13. Retrieval of sea surface velocities using sequential Ocean Colour ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    pended sediment dispersion patterns, in sequential two time lapsed images. .... face advective velocities consists essentially of iden- tifying the ... matrix is time consuming, a significant reduction .... Chauhan, P. 2002 Personal Communication.

  14. Process tomography via sequential measurements on a single quantum system

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bassa, H

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The authors utilize a discrete (sequential) measurement protocol to investigate quantum process tomography of a single two-level quantum system, with an unknown initial state, undergoing Rabi oscillations. The ignorance of the dynamical parameters...

  15. Sequential Low Cost Interventions Double Hand Hygiene Rates ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sequential Low Cost Interventions Double Hand Hygiene Rates Among Medical Teams in a Resource Limited Setting. Results of a Hand Hygiene Quality Improvement Project Conducted At University Teaching Hospital of Kigali (Chuk), Kigali, Rwanda.

  16. The impact of eyewitness identifications from simultaneous and sequential lineups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-10-01

    Recent guidelines in the US allow either simultaneous or sequential lineups to be used for eyewitness identification. This paper investigates how potential jurors weight the probative value of the different outcomes from both of these types of lineups. Participants (n=340) were given a description of a case that included some exonerating and some incriminating evidence. There was either a simultaneous or a sequential lineup. Depending on the condition, an eyewitness chose the suspect, chose a filler, or made no identification. The participant had to judge the guilt of the suspect and decide whether to render a guilty verdict. For both simultaneous and sequential lineups an identification had a large effect,increasing the probability of a guilty verdict. There were no reliable effects detected between making no identification and identifying a filler. The effect sizes were similar for simultaneous and sequential lineups. These findings are important for judges and other legal professionals to know for trials involving lineup identifications.

  17. A sequential mixed methods research approach to investigating HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-09-03

    Sep 3, 2016 ... Sequential mixed methods research is an effective approach for ... show the effectiveness of the research method. ... qualitative data before quantitative datasets ..... whereby both types of data are collected simultaneously.

  18. OPTIMIZATION OF AGGREGATION AND SEQUENTIAL-PARALLEL EXECUTION MODES OF INTERSECTING OPERATION SETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. М. Levin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model and a method for the problem of optimization of aggregation and of sequential- parallel execution modes of intersecting operation sets are proposed. The proposed method is based on the two-level decomposition scheme. At the top level the variant of aggregation for groups of operations is selected, and at the lower level the execution modes of operations are optimized for a fixed version of aggregation.

  19. Identification and comparison of predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity in the case of prostatic irradiation; Identification et comparaison de modeles predictifs de toxicite rectale et vesicale en cas d'irradiation prostatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnep, K.; Chira, C.; Le Prise, E.; Crevoisier, R. de [Centre Eugene-Marquis, Rennes (France); Zhu, J.; Simon, A.; Ospina Arango, J.D. [Inserm U642, Rennes (France); Messai, T.; Bossi, A. [Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Beckendorf, V. [Centre Alexis-Vautrin, Nancy (France)

    2011-10-15

    More than 400 patients have been treated by conformational radiation therapy for a localized prostate adenocarcinoma and some have been selected according to the availability of dose-volume histograms. Predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity have been compared: LKB, Logit EUD and Poisson EUD for rectal toxicity, LKB, Logit EUD, Poisson EUD and Schultheiss for bladder toxicity. Results suggest that these models could be used during the inverse planning of intensity-modulated radiation therapy in order to decrease toxicity. Short communication

  20. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a