Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

Science.gov (United States)

Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

2017-12-01

Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

Modelling sequentially scored item responses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Akkermans, W.

2000-01-01

The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2012-01-01

as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...

Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

2010-12-01

This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the

An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilek ALTAŞ

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

Un procedimiento para selección de los modelos Logit Mixtos

OpenAIRE

Ruíz Gallegos, José de Jesús

2004-01-01

En el presente trabajo se hace una revisión de dos modelos que han tenido una fuerte aplicabilidad en los problemas de elecciones discretas: El modelo Logit y el modelo Logit Mixto. Además, se propone el uso del estadístico de Cox para seleccionar modelos, en el modelo Logit Mixto.

Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

2003-01-01

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

Science.gov (United States)

Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ko Kawada

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

2017-06-01

Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Radiation effects on cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors, 1950-72. Comparison of some statistical models and analysis based on the additive logit model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otake, M [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Science

1976-12-01

Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) x c(dose) x 2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during the 22year period from 1 Oct. 1950 to 31 Dec. 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with an increase in dose. The dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature or a log linear model, particularly if the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad were set arbitrarily at 600 rad, since the average dose in the 200+ rad group would then change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were 9 year old or less at the time of the bomb and who were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk for all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i.e., the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons.

Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

2010-09-01

A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

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Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

2009-03-01

We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinjun Lai

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

Para Krizleri Öngörüsünde Logit Model ve Sinyal Yaklaşımının Değeri: Türkiye Tecrübesi

OpenAIRE

Kaya, Vedat; Yilmaz, Omer

2007-01-01

Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On the other hand, the signal approach aims at determining any possible currency crisis in advance, following some variables showing unusual change over the periods of economic fluctuation and thus it pr...

Comparing Johnson’s SBB, Weibull and Logit-Logistic bivariate distributions for modeling tree diameters and heights using copulas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardil Forradellas, A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Oliveres, J.; Castellnou, M.

2016-07-01

Aim of study: In this study we compare the accuracy of three bivariate distributions: Johnson’s SBB, Weibull-2P and LL-2P functions for characterizing the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. Area of study: North-West of Spain. Material and methods: Diameter and height measurements of 128 plots of pure and even-aged Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) stands located in the North-west of Spain were considered in the present study. The SBB bivariate distribution was obtained from SB marginal distributions using a Normal Copula based on a four-parameter logistic transformation. The Plackett Copula was used to obtain the bivariate models from the Weibull and Logit-logistic univariate marginal distributions. The negative logarithm of the maximum likelihood function was used to compare the results and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the related samples of these logarithms calculated for each sample plot and each distribution. Main results: The best results were obtained by using the Plackett copula and the best marginal distribution was the Logit-logistic. Research highlights: The copulas used in this study have shown a good performance for modeling the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. They could be easily extended for modelling multivariate distributions involving other tree variables, such as tree volume or biomass. (Author)

Analyzing Korean consumers’ latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byun, Hyunsuk; Lee, Chul-Yong

2017-01-01

Generally, consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from. Since different energy sources exert varying effects on society, it is necessary to analyze consumers’ latent preference for electricity generation sources. The present study estimates Korean consumers’ marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment. The results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources. Additionally, Korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32–11%, and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4–32%. - Highlights: • We derive an electricity mix reflecting Korean consumers’ latent preferences. • We use the discrete choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian logit model. • The danger posed by the generation source is the most important attribute. • The consumers wish to increase the renewable energy proportion from 4.3% to 32.8%. • Korea's cost-oriented energy supply policy and consumers’ preference differ markedly.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hüseyin ÖZER

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

2018-08-01

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical proceessing of radioimmunoassay results using logit-log transformation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Textoris, R.

1983-01-01

The mathematical model and algorithm are described of the numerical processing of the results of a radioimmunoassay by the logit-log transformation method and by linear regression with weight factors. The limiting value of the curve for zero concentration is optimized with regard to the residual sum by the iterative method by multiple repeats of the linear regression. Typical examples are presented of the approximation of calibration curves. The method proved suitable for all hitherto used RIA sets and is well suited for small computers with internal memory of min. 8 Kbyte. (author)

Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Y. L. Jack

1984-01-01

Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

Science.gov (United States)

Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

1992-10-01

The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

Sequential neural models with stochastic layers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich

2016-01-01

How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...

Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2012-01-01

of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

1995-12-01

This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bowen Dong

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

Efficiency Loss of Mixed Equilibrium Associated with Altruistic Users and Logit-based Stochastic Users in Transportation Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Jun Yu

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The efficiency loss of mixed equilibrium associated with two categories of users is investigated in this paper. The first category of users are altruistic users (AU who have the same altruism coefficient and try to minimize their own perceived cost that assumed to be a linear combination of selfish com­ponent and altruistic component. The second category of us­ers are Logit-based stochastic users (LSU who choose the route according to the Logit-based stochastic user equilib­rium (SUE principle. The variational inequality (VI model is used to formulate the mixed route choice behaviours associ­ated with AU and LSU. The efficiency loss caused by the two categories of users is analytically derived and the relations to some network parameters are discussed. The numerical tests validate our analytical results. Our result takes the re­sults in the existing literature as its special cases.

Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutonary games with Logit Dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

2012-01-01

This note shows, by means of two simple, three-strategy games, the existence of stable periodic orbits and of multiple, interior steady states in a smooth version of the Best-Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and

Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

2015-01-01

Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

A continuous-time neural model for sequential action.

Science.gov (United States)

Kachergis, George; Wyatte, Dean; O'Reilly, Randall C; de Kleijn, Roy; Hommel, Bernhard

2014-11-05

Action selection, planning and execution are continuous processes that evolve over time, responding to perceptual feedback as well as evolving top-down constraints. Existing models of routine sequential action (e.g. coffee- or pancake-making) generally fall into one of two classes: hierarchical models that include hand-built task representations, or heterarchical models that must learn to represent hierarchy via temporal context, but thus far lack goal-orientedness. We present a biologically motivated model of the latter class that, because it is situated in the Leabra neural architecture, affords an opportunity to include both unsupervised and goal-directed learning mechanisms. Moreover, we embed this neurocomputational model in the theoretical framework of the theory of event coding (TEC), which posits that actions and perceptions share a common representation with bidirectional associations between the two. Thus, in this view, not only does perception select actions (along with task context), but actions are also used to generate perceptions (i.e. intended effects). We propose a neural model that implements TEC to carry out sequential action control in hierarchically structured tasks such as coffee-making. Unlike traditional feedforward discrete-time neural network models, which use static percepts to generate static outputs, our biological model accepts continuous-time inputs and likewise generates non-stationary outputs, making short-timescale dynamic predictions. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

2013-10-15

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

Science.gov (United States)

Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

2014-01-24

In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-06-01

Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

OpenAIRE

Kanshukan Rajaratnam; Peter A. Beling; George A. Overstreet

2016-01-01

Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a seq...

Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

Science.gov (United States)

Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

2018-04-01

Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

2016-05-18

Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

OpenAIRE

Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

Microwave Ablation: Comparison of Simultaneous and Sequential Activation of Multiple Antennas in Liver Model Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Harari, Colin M; Magagna, Michelle; Bedoya, Mariajose; Lee, Fred T; Lubner, Meghan G; Hinshaw, J Louis; Ziemlewicz, Timothy; Brace, Christopher L

2016-01-01

To compare microwave ablation zones created by using sequential or simultaneous power delivery in ex vivo and in vivo liver tissue. All procedures were approved by the institutional animal care and use committee. Microwave ablations were performed in both ex vivo and in vivo liver models with a 2.45-GHz system capable of powering up to three antennas simultaneously. Two- and three-antenna arrays were evaluated in each model. Sequential and simultaneous ablations were created by delivering power (50 W ex vivo, 65 W in vivo) for 5 minutes per antenna (10 and 15 minutes total ablation time for sequential ablations, 5 minutes for simultaneous ablations). Thirty-two ablations were performed in ex vivo bovine livers (eight per group) and 28 in the livers of eight swine in vivo (seven per group). Ablation zone size and circularity metrics were determined from ablations excised postmortem. Mixed effects modeling was used to evaluate the influence of power delivery, number of antennas, and tissue type. On average, ablations created by using the simultaneous power delivery technique were larger than those with the sequential technique (P Simultaneous ablations were also more circular than sequential ablations (P = .0001). Larger and more circular ablations were achieved with three antennas compared with two antennas (P simultaneous power delivery creates larger, more confluent ablations with greater temperatures than those created with sequential power delivery. © RSNA, 2015.

On Modeling Large-Scale Multi-Agent Systems with Parallel, Sequential and Genuinely Asynchronous Cellular Automata

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tosic, P.T.

2011-01-01

We study certain types of Cellular Automata (CA) viewed as an abstraction of large-scale Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). We argue that the classical CA model needs to be modified in several important respects, in order to become a relevant and sufficiently general model for the large-scale MAS, and so that thus generalized model can capture many important MAS properties at the level of agent ensembles and their long-term collective behavior patterns. We specifically focus on the issue of inter-agent communication in CA, and propose sequential cellular automata (SCA) as the first step, and genuinely Asynchronous Cellular Automata (ACA) as the ultimate deterministic CA-based abstract models for large-scale MAS made of simple reactive agents. We first formulate deterministic and nondeterministic versions of sequential CA, and then summarize some interesting configuration space properties (i.e., possible behaviors) of a restricted class of sequential CA. In particular, we compare and contrast those properties of sequential CA with the corresponding properties of the classical (that is, parallel and perfectly synchronous) CA with the same restricted class of update rules. We analytically demonstrate failure of the studied sequential CA models to simulate all possible behaviors of perfectly synchronous parallel CA, even for a very restricted class of non-linear totalistic node update rules. The lesson learned is that the interleaving semantics of concurrency, when applied to sequential CA, is not refined enough to adequately capture the perfect synchrony of parallel CA updates. Last but not least, we outline what would be an appropriate CA-like abstraction for large-scale distributed computing insofar as the inter-agent communication model is concerned, and in that context we propose genuinely asynchronous CA. (author)

Sequential decoding of intramuscular EMG signals via estimation of a Markov model.

Science.gov (United States)

Monsifrot, Jonathan; Le Carpentier, Eric; Aoustin, Yannick; Farina, Dario

2014-09-01

This paper addresses the sequential decoding of intramuscular single-channel electromyographic (EMG) signals to extract the activity of individual motor neurons. A hidden Markov model is derived from the physiological generation of the EMG signal. The EMG signal is described as a sum of several action potentials (wavelet) trains, embedded in noise. For each train, the time interval between wavelets is modeled by a process that parameters are linked to the muscular activity. The parameters of this process are estimated sequentially by a Bayes filter, along with the firing instants. The method was tested on some simulated signals and an experimental one, from which the rates of detection and classification of action potentials were above 95% with respect to the reference decomposition. The method works sequentially in time, and is the first to address the problem of intramuscular EMG decomposition online. It has potential applications for man-machine interfacing based on motor neuron activities.

A SEQUENTIAL MODEL OF INNOVATION STRATEGY—COMPANY NON-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE LINKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wakhid Slamet Ciptono

2006-05-01

Full Text Available This study extends the prior research (Zahra and Das 1993 by examining the association between a company’s innovation strategy and its non-financial performance in the upstream and downstream strategic business units (SBUs of oil and gas companies. The sequential model suggests a causal sequence among six dimensions of innovation strategy (leadership orientation, process innovation, product/service innovation, external innovation source, internal innovation source, and investment that may lead to higher company non-financial performance (productivity and operational reliability. The study distributed a questionnaire (by mail, e-mailed web system, and focus group discussion to three levels of managers (top, middle, and first-line of 49 oil and gas companies with 140 SBUs in Indonesia. These qualified samples fell into 47 upstream (supply-chain companies with 132 SBUs, and 2 downstream (demand-chain companies with 8 SBUs. A total of 1,332 individual usable questionnaires were returned thus qualified for analysis, representing an effective response rate of 50.19 percent. The researcher conducts structural equation modeling (SEM and hierarchical multiple regression analysis to assess the goodness-of-fit between the research models and the sample data and to test whether innovation strategy mediates the impact of leadership orientation on company non-financial performance. SEM reveals that the models have met goodness-of-fit criteria, thus the interpretation of the sequential models fits with the data. The results of SEM and hierarchical multiple regression: (1 support the importance of innovation strategy as a determinant of company non-financial performance, (2 suggest that the sequential model is appropriate for examining the relationships between six dimensions of innovation strategy and company non-financial performance, and (3 show that the sequential model provides additional insights into the indirect contribution of the individual

Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

2012-01-01

with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

Employees’ Perceptions of Corporate Social Responsibility and Job Performance: A Sequential Mediation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inyong Shin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In spite of the increasing importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR and employee job performance, little is still known about the links between the socially responsible actions of organizations and the job performance of their members. In order to explain how employees’ perceptions of CSR influence their job performance, this study first examines the relationships between perceived CSR, organizational identification, job satisfaction, and job performance, and then develops a sequential mediation model by fully integrating these links. The results of structural equation modeling analyses conducted for 250 employees at hotels in South Korea offered strong support for the proposed model. We found that perceived CSR was indirectly and positively associated with job performance sequentially mediated first through organizational identification and then job satisfaction. This study theoretically contributes to the CSR literature by revealing the sequential mechanism through which employees’ perceptions of CSR affect their job performance, and offers practical implications by stressing the importance of employees’ perceptions of CSR. Limitations of this study and future research directions are discussed.

Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

Revealing additional preference heterogeneity with an extended random parameter logit model: the case of extra virgin olive oil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Yangui

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Methods that account for preference heterogeneity have received a significant amount of attention in recent literature. Most of them have focused on preference heterogeneity around the mean of the random parameters, which has been specified as a function of socio-demographic characteristics. This paper aims at analyzing consumers’ preferences towards extra-virgin olive oil in Catalonia using a methodological framework with two novelties over past studies: 1 it accounts for both preference heterogeneity around the mean and the variance; and 2 it considers both socio-demographic characteristics of consumers as well as their attitudinal factors. Estimated coefficients and moments of willingness to pay (WTP distributions are compared with those obtained from alternative Random Parameter Logit (RPL models. Results suggest that the proposed framework increases the goodness-of-fit and provides more useful insights for policy analysis. The most important attributes affecting consumers’ preferences towards extra virgin olive oil are the price and the product’s origin. The consumers perceive the organic olive oil attribute negatively, as they think that it is not worth paying a premium for a product that is healthy in nature.

Multiple steady states, limit cycles and chaotic attractors in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

2010-01-01

This paper investigates, by means of simple, three and four strategy games, the occurrence of periodic and chaotic behaviour in a smooth version of the Best Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and thus, stable limit

Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

2013-01-01

Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

Formal modelling and verification of interlocking systems featuring sequential release

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vu, Linh Hong; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan

2017-01-01

In this article, we present a method and an associated toolchain for the formal verification of the new Danish railway interlocking systems that are compatible with the European Train Control System (ETCS) Level 2. We have made a generic and reconfigurable model of the system behaviour and generic...... safety properties. This model accommodates sequential release - a feature in the new Danish interlocking systems. To verify the safety of an interlocking system, first a domain-specific description of interlocking configuration data is constructed and validated. Then the generic model and safety...

Mathematical Model for the Sequential Action of Radiation and Heat on Yeast Cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jin Kyu; Lee, Yun Jong; Kim, Su Hyoun; Nili, Mohammad; Zhurakovskaya, Galina P.; Petin, Vladislav G.

2009-01-01

It is well known that the synergistic interaction of hyperthermia with ionizing radiation and other agents is widely used in hyperthermic oncology. Interaction between two agents may be considered as synergistic or antagonistic when the effect produced is greater or smaller than the sum of the two single responses. It has long be considered that the mechanism of synergistic interaction of hyperthermia and ionizing radiation may be brought about by an inhibition of the repair from sublethal and potentially lethal damage at the cellular level. The inhibition of the recovery process after combined treatments cannot be considered as a reason for the synergy, but rather would be the expected and predicted consequence of the production of irreversible damage. On the basis of it, a simple mathematical model of the synergistic interaction of two agents acting simultaneously has been proposed. However, the model has not been applied to predict the degree of interaction of heat and ionizing radiation after their sequential action. Extension of the model to the sequential treatment of heat and ionizing radiation seems to be of interest for theoretical and practical reasons. Thus, the purposes of the present work is to suggest the simplest mathematical model which would be able to account for the results obtained and currently available experimental information on the sequential action of radiation and heat.

Optimal Sequential Rules for Computer-Based Instruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Vos, Hans J.

1998-01-01

Formulates sequential rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in the context of computer-based instruction. Topics include Bayesian decision theory, threshold and linear-utility structure, psychometric model, optimal sequential number of test questions, and an empirical example of sequential instructional…

Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2012-01-01

The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that represents the selection among 5 emergency lateral and speed control maneuvers (i.e., "no avoidance maneuvers," "braking," "steering," "braking and steering," and "other maneuvers) while accommodating correlations across maneuvers and heteroscedasticity. Data for the analysis were retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009 by considering drivers for which crash avoidance maneuvers are known. The results show that (1) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent greatly influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (2) women and elderly have a relatively lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance maneuvers, (3) drowsiness and fatigue have a greater negative marginal effect on the tendency to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers than alcohol and drug consumption, (4) difficult road conditions increase the propensity to perform crash avoidance maneuvers, and (5) visual obstruction and artificial illumination decrease the probability to carry out crash avoidance maneuvers. The results emphasize the need for public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving style for senior drivers and warning about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing

Sequential memory: Binding dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Afraimovich, Valentin; Gong, Xue; Rabinovich, Mikhail

2015-10-01

Temporal order memories are critical for everyday animal and human functioning. Experiments and our own experience show that the binding or association of various features of an event together and the maintaining of multimodality events in sequential order are the key components of any sequential memories—episodic, semantic, working, etc. We study a robustness of binding sequential dynamics based on our previously introduced model in the form of generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. In the phase space of the model, there exists a multi-dimensional binding heteroclinic network consisting of saddle equilibrium points and heteroclinic trajectories joining them. We prove here the robustness of the binding sequential dynamics, i.e., the feasibility phenomenon for coupled heteroclinic networks: for each collection of successive heteroclinic trajectories inside the unified networks, there is an open set of initial points such that the trajectory going through each of them follows the prescribed collection staying in a small neighborhood of it. We show also that the symbolic complexity function of the system restricted to this neighborhood is a polynomial of degree L - 1, where L is the number of modalities.

Sequential models for coarsening and missingness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gill, R.D.; Robins, J.M.

1997-01-01

In a companion paper we described what intuitively would seem to be the most general possible way to generate Coarsening at Random mechanisms a sequential procedure called randomized monotone coarsening Counterexamples showed that CAR mechanisms exist which cannot be represented in this way Here we

Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

2008-09-01

This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaheed, Mohammad Saad B; Gkritza, Konstantina; Zhang, Wei; Hans, Zachary

2013-12-01

Using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this paper estimates a mixed logit model to investigate the factors that affect crash severity outcomes in a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. These include crash-specific factors (such as manner of collision, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle actions), roadway and environmental conditions, location and time, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle attributes. The methodological approach allows the parameters to vary across observations as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations. Our results showed non-uniform effects of rear-end collisions on minor injury crashes, as well as of the roadway speed limit greater or equal to 55mph, the type of area (urban), the riding season (summer) and motorcyclist's gender on low severity crashes. We also found significant effects of the roadway surface condition, clear vision (not obscured by moving vehicles, trees, buildings, or other), light conditions, speed limit, and helmet use on severe injury outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling eye gaze patterns in clinician-patient interaction with lag sequential analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Montague, Enid; Xu, Jie; Chen, Ping-Yu; Asan, Onur; Barrett, Bruce P; Chewning, Betty

2011-10-01

The aim of this study was to examine whether lag sequential analysis could be used to describe eye gaze orientation between clinicians and patients in the medical encounter. This topic is particularly important as new technologies are implemented into multiuser health care settings in which trust is critical and nonverbal cues are integral to achieving trust. This analysis method could lead to design guidelines for technologies and more effective assessments of interventions. Nonverbal communication patterns are important aspects of clinician-patient interactions and may affect patient outcomes. The eye gaze behaviors of clinicians and patients in 110 videotaped medical encounters were analyzed using the lag sequential method to identify significant behavior sequences. Lag sequential analysis included both event-based lag and time-based lag. Results from event-based lag analysis showed that the patient's gaze followed that of the clinician, whereas the clinician's gaze did not follow the patient's. Time-based sequential analysis showed that responses from the patient usually occurred within 2 s after the initial behavior of the clinician. Our data suggest that the clinician's gaze significantly affects the medical encounter but that the converse is not true. Findings from this research have implications for the design of clinical work systems and modeling interactions. Similar research methods could be used to identify different behavior patterns in clinical settings (physical layout, technology, etc.) to facilitate and evaluate clinical work system designs.

Development and sensitivity analysis of a fullykinetic model of sequential reductive dechlorination in subsurface

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malaguerra, Flavio; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

2010-01-01

and natural degradation of chlorinated solvents frequently occurs in the subsurface through sequential reductive dechlorination. However, the occurrence and the performance of natural sequential reductive dechlorination strongly depends on environmental factor such as redox conditions, presence of fermenting...... organic matter / electron donors, presence of specific biomass, etc. Here we develop a new fully-kinetic biogeochemical reactive model able to simulate chlorinated solvents degradation as well as production and consumption of molecular hydrogen. The model is validated using batch experiment data......Chlorinated hydrocarbons originating from point sources are amongst the most prevalent contaminants of ground water and often represent a serious threat to groundwater-based drinking water resources. Natural attenuation of contaminant plumes can play a major role in contaminated site management...

Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback

OpenAIRE

Jung–Min Yang

2016-01-01

Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...

Exploring the sequential lineup advantage using WITNESS.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodsell, Charles A; Gronlund, Scott D; Carlson, Curt A

2010-12-01

Advocates claim that the sequential lineup is an improvement over simultaneous lineup procedures, but no formal (quantitatively specified) explanation exists for why it is better. The computational model WITNESS (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629-654, 2003) was used to develop theoretical explanations for the sequential lineup advantage. In its current form, WITNESS produced a sequential advantage only by pairing conservative sequential choosing with liberal simultaneous choosing. However, this combination failed to approximate four extant experiments that exhibited large sequential advantages. Two of these experiments became the focus of our efforts because the data were uncontaminated by likely suspect position effects. Decision-based and memory-based modifications to WITNESS approximated the data and produced a sequential advantage. The next step is to evaluate the proposed explanations and modify public policy recommendations accordingly.

Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kesehatan Bank dengan Regresi Logit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Titik Aryati

2007-09-01

Full Text Available The article aims to find the probability effects of bank’s health level using CAMEL ratio analysis. The statistic method used to test on the research hypothesis was logit regression. The dependent variable used in this research was bank’s health level and independent variables were CAMEL financial ratios consisting of CAR, NPL, ROA, ROE, LDR, and NIM. The report data were extracted from bank’s financial from financial report, which had been published and accumulated by Infobank research bureau with valuation, based on bank Indonesia policy. The sample consisted of 60 healthy banks and 14 unhealthy banks in 2005 and 2006. The empirical result of this research indicates that the Non Performing Loan is the significant variable affecting bank health level.

Improving multiple-point-based a priori models for inverse problems by combining Sequential Simulation with the Frequency Matching Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cordua, Knud Skou; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Lange, Katrine

In order to move beyond simplified covariance based a priori models, which are typically used for inverse problems, more complex multiple-point-based a priori models have to be considered. By means of marginal probability distributions ‘learned’ from a training image, sequential simulation has...... proven to be an efficient way of obtaining multiple realizations that honor the same multiple-point statistics as the training image. The frequency matching method provides an alternative way of formulating multiple-point-based a priori models. In this strategy the pattern frequency distributions (i.......e. marginals) of the training image and a subsurface model are matched in order to obtain a solution with the same multiple-point statistics as the training image. Sequential Gibbs sampling is a simulation strategy that provides an efficient way of applying sequential simulation based algorithms as a priori...

Sequential updating of a new dynamic pharmacokinetic model for caffeine in premature neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Micallef, Sandrine; Amzal, Billy; Bach, Véronique; Chardon, Karen; Tourneux, Pierre; Bois, Frédéric Y

2007-01-01

Caffeine treatment is widely used in nursing care to reduce the risk of apnoea in premature neonates. To check the therapeutic efficacy of the treatment against apnoea, caffeine concentration in blood is an important indicator. The present study was aimed at building a pharmacokinetic model as a basis for a medical decision support tool. In the proposed model, time dependence of physiological parameters is introduced to describe rapid growth of neonates. To take into account the large variability in the population, the pharmacokinetic model is embedded in a population structure. The whole model is inferred within a Bayesian framework. To update caffeine concentration predictions as data of an incoming patient are collected, we propose a fast method that can be used in a medical context. This involves the sequential updating of model parameters (at individual and population levels) via a stochastic particle algorithm. Our model provides better predictions than the ones obtained with models previously published. We show, through an example, that sequential updating improves predictions of caffeine concentration in blood (reduce bias and length of credibility intervals). The update of the pharmacokinetic model using body mass and caffeine concentration data is studied. It shows how informative caffeine concentration data are in contrast to body mass data. This study provides the methodological basis to predict caffeine concentration in blood, after a given treatment if data are collected on the treated neonate.

Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

KAUST Repository

Xie, Qing

2016-02-23

Alzheimer\\'s Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders\\' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD\\'s progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients\\' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer\\'s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

KAUST Repository

Xie, Qing; Wang, Su; Zhu, Jia; Zhang, Xiangliang

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD's progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

A SEQUENTIAL MODEL OF INNOVATION STRATEGY—COMPANY NON-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE LINKS

OpenAIRE

Ciptono, Wakhid Slamet

2006-01-01

This study extends the prior research (Zahra and Das 1993) by examining the association between a company’s innovation strategy and its non-financial performance in the upstream and downstream strategic business units (SBUs) of oil and gas companies. The sequential model suggests a causal sequence among six dimensions of innovation strategy (leadership orientation, process innovation, product/service innovation, external innovation source, internal innovation source, and investment) that may ...

Popularity Modeling for Mobile Apps: A Sequential Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hengshu; Liu, Chuanren; Ge, Yong; Xiong, Hui; Chen, Enhong

2015-07-01

The popularity information in App stores, such as chart rankings, user ratings, and user reviews, provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand user experiences with mobile Apps, learn the process of adoption of mobile Apps, and thus enables better mobile App services. While the importance of popularity information is well recognized in the literature, the use of the popularity information for mobile App services is still fragmented and under-explored. To this end, in this paper, we propose a sequential approach based on hidden Markov model (HMM) for modeling the popularity information of mobile Apps toward mobile App services. Specifically, we first propose a popularity based HMM (PHMM) to model the sequences of the heterogeneous popularity observations of mobile Apps. Then, we introduce a bipartite based method to precluster the popularity observations. This can help to learn the parameters and initial values of the PHMM efficiently. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the PHMM is a general model and can be applicable for various mobile App services, such as trend based App recommendation, rating and review spam detection, and ranking fraud detection. Finally, we validate our approach on two real-world data sets collected from the Apple Appstore. Experimental results clearly validate both the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed popularity modeling approach.

Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeison Díaz-Mateus

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

A meta-analysis of response-time tests of the sequential two-systems model of moral judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Jonathan; Gürçay, Burcu

2017-05-01

The (generalized) sequential two-system ("default interventionist") model of utilitarian moral judgment predicts that utilitarian responses often arise from a system-two correction of system-one deontological intuitions. Response-time (RT) results that seem to support this model are usually explained by the fact that low-probability responses have longer RTs. Following earlier results, we predicted response probability from each subject's tendency to make utilitarian responses (A, "Ability") and each dilemma's tendency to elicit deontological responses (D, "Difficulty"), estimated from a Rasch model. At the point where A = D, the two responses are equally likely, so probability effects cannot account for any RT differences between them. The sequential two-system model still predicts that many of the utilitarian responses made at this point will result from system-two corrections of system-one intuitions, hence should take longer. However, when A = D, RT for the two responses was the same, contradicting the sequential model. Here we report a meta-analysis of 26 data sets, which replicated the earlier results of no RT difference overall at the point where A = D. The data sets used three different kinds of moral judgment items, and the RT equality at the point where A = D held for all three. In addition, we found that RT increased with A-D. This result holds for subjects (characterized by Ability) but not for items (characterized by Difficulty). We explain the main features of this unanticipated effect, and of the main results, with a drift-diffusion model.

Mining Emerging Sequential Patterns for Activity Recognition in Body Sensor Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Tao; Wang, Liang; Chen, Hanhua

2010-01-01

Body Sensor Networks oer many applications in healthcare, well-being and entertainment. One of the emerging applications is recognizing activities of daily living. In this paper, we introduce a novel knowledge pattern named Emerging Sequential Pattern (ESP)|a sequential pattern that discovers...... signicant class dierences|to recognize both simple (i.e., sequential) and complex (i.e., interleaved and concurrent) activities. Based on ESPs, we build our complex activity models directly upon the sequential model to recognize both activity types. We conduct comprehensive empirical studies to evaluate...

Modeling sequential context effects in diagnostic interpretation of screening mammograms.

Science.gov (United States)

Alamudun, Folami; Paulus, Paige; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Tourassi, Georgia

2018-07-01

Prior research has shown that physicians' medical decisions can be influenced by sequential context, particularly in cases where successive stimuli exhibit similar characteristics when analyzing medical images. This type of systematic error is known to psychophysicists as sequential context effect as it indicates that judgments are influenced by features of and decisions about the preceding case in the sequence of examined cases, rather than being based solely on the peculiarities unique to the present case. We determine if radiologists experience some form of context bias, using screening mammography as the use case. To this end, we explore correlations between previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions and current decisions. We hypothesize that a radiologist's visual search pattern and diagnostic decisions in previous cases are predictive of the radiologist's current diagnostic decisions. To test our hypothesis, we tasked 10 radiologists of varied experience to conduct blind reviews of 100 four-view screening mammograms. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions were collected from each radiologist under conditions mimicking clinical practice. Perceptual behavior was quantified using the fractal dimension of gaze scanpath, which was computed using the Minkowski-Bouligand box-counting method. To test the effect of previous behavior and decisions, we conducted a multifactor fixed-effects ANOVA. Further, to examine the predictive value of previous perceptual behavior and decisions, we trained and evaluated a predictive model for radiologists' current diagnostic decisions. ANOVA tests showed that previous visual behavior, characterized by fractal analysis, previous diagnostic decisions, and image characteristics of previous cases are significant predictors of current diagnostic decisions. Additionally, predictive modeling of diagnostic decisions showed an overall improvement in prediction error when the model is trained on additional information about

Corpus Callosum Analysis using MDL-based Sequential Models of Shape and Appearance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Davies, Rhodri H.; Ryberg, Charlotte

2004-01-01

are proposed, but all remain applicable to other domain problems. The well-known multi-resolution AAM optimisation is extended to include sequential relaxations on texture resolution, model coverage and model parameter constraints. Fully unsupervised analysis is obtained by exploiting model parameter...... that show that the method produces accurate, robust and rapid segmentations in a cross sectional study of 17 subjects, establishing its feasibility as a fully automated clinical tool for analysis and segmentation.......This paper describes a method for automatically analysing and segmenting the corpus callosum from magnetic resonance images of the brain based on the widely used Active Appearance Models (AAMs) by Cootes et al. Extensions of the original method, which are designed to improve this specific case...

Accounting for Heterogeneous Returns in Sequential Schooling Decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zamarro, G.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating returns to schooling that takes into account that returns may be heterogeneous among agents and that educational decisions are made sequentially.A sequential decision model is interesting because it explicitly considers that the level of education of each

[Mathematical modeling of synergistic interaction of sequential thermoradiation action on mammalian cells].

Science.gov (United States)

Belkina, S V; Semkina, M A; Kritskiĭ, R O; Petin, V G

2010-01-01

Data obtained by other authors for mammalian cells treated by sequential action of ionizing radiation and hyperthermia were used to estimate the dependence of synergistic enhancement ratio on the ratio of damages induced by these agents. Experimental results were described and interpreted by means of the mathematical model of synergism in accordance with which the synergism is expected to result from the additional lethal damage arising from the interaction of sublesions induced by both agents.

Sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo filter with simultaneous model selection for electrocardiogram signal modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Edla, Shwetha; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia

2012-01-01

Constructing statistical models of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, whose parameters can be used for automated disease classification, is of great importance in precluding manual annotation and providing prompt diagnosis of cardiac diseases. ECG signals consist of several segments with different morphologies (namely the P wave, QRS complex and the T wave) in a single heart beat, which can vary across individuals and diseases. Also, existing statistical ECG models exhibit a reliance upon obtaining a priori information from the ECG data by using preprocessing algorithms to initialize the filter parameters, or to define the user-specified model parameters. In this paper, we propose an ECG modeling technique using the sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) filter that can perform simultaneous model selection, by adaptively choosing from different representations depending upon the nature of the data. Our results demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to track various types of ECG morphologies, including intermittently occurring ECG beats. In addition, we use the estimated model parameters as the feature set to classify between ECG signals with normal sinus rhythm and four different types of arrhythmia.

The sequential structure of brain activation predicts skill.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, John R; Bothell, Daniel; Fincham, Jon M; Moon, Jungaa

2016-01-29

In an fMRI study, participants were trained to play a complex video game. They were scanned early and then again after substantial practice. While better players showed greater activation in one region (right dorsal striatum) their relative skill was better diagnosed by considering the sequential structure of whole brain activation. Using a cognitive model that played this game, we extracted a characterization of the mental states that are involved in playing a game and the statistical structure of the transitions among these states. There was a strong correspondence between this measure of sequential structure and the skill of different players. Using multi-voxel pattern analysis, it was possible to recognize, with relatively high accuracy, the cognitive states participants were in during particular scans. We used the sequential structure of these activation-recognized states to predict the skill of individual players. These findings indicate that important features about information-processing strategies can be identified from a model-based analysis of the sequential structure of brain activation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

2018-01-01

After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work–family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women’s perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work–family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress. PMID:29719522

Work-Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

2018-01-01

After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work-family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work-family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women's perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work-family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress.

Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiyi Zhou

2018-04-01

Full Text Available After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work–family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women’s perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work–family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress.

A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Tran-Duy (An); A. Boonen (Annelies); M.A.F.J. van de Laar (Mart); A. Franke (Andre); J.L. Severens (Hans)

2011-01-01

textabstractObjective: To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods: Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model

A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tran-Duy, A.; Boonen, A.; Laar, M.A.F.J.; Franke, A.C.; Severens, J.L.

2011-01-01

Objective To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug

Sequential search leads to faster, more efficient fragment-based de novo protein structure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, Saulo H P; Law, Eleanor C; Shi, Jiye; Deane, Charlotte M

2018-04-01

Most current de novo structure prediction methods randomly sample protein conformations and thus require large amounts of computational resource. Here, we consider a sequential sampling strategy, building on ideas from recent experimental work which shows that many proteins fold cotranslationally. We have investigated whether a pseudo-greedy search approach, which begins sequentially from one of the termini, can improve the performance and accuracy of de novo protein structure prediction. We observed that our sequential approach converges when fewer than 20 000 decoys have been produced, fewer than commonly expected. Using our software, SAINT2, we also compared the run time and quality of models produced in a sequential fashion against a standard, non-sequential approach. Sequential prediction produces an individual decoy 1.5-2.5 times faster than non-sequential prediction. When considering the quality of the best model, sequential prediction led to a better model being produced for 31 out of 41 soluble protein validation cases and for 18 out of 24 transmembrane protein cases. Correct models (TM-Score > 0.5) were produced for 29 of these cases by the sequential mode and for only 22 by the non-sequential mode. Our comparison reveals that a sequential search strategy can be used to drastically reduce computational time of de novo protein structure prediction and improve accuracy. Data are available for download from: http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/resources. SAINT2 is available for download from: https://github.com/sauloho/SAINT2. saulo.deoliveira@dtc.ox.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herckenrath, Daan; Fiandaca, G.; Auken, Esben

2013-01-01

hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI) a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters...... with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI). In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical...

Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herckenrath, Daan; Fiandaca, G.; Auken, Esben

2013-01-01

with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI). In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical...... hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI) a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters...

In vivo comparison of simultaneous versus sequential injection technique for thermochemical ablation in a porcine model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cressman, Erik N K; Shenoi, Mithun M; Edelman, Theresa L; Geeslin, Matthew G; Hennings, Leah J; Zhang, Yan; Iaizzo, Paul A; Bischof, John C

2012-01-01

To investigate simultaneous and sequential injection thermochemical ablation in a porcine model, and compare them to sham and acid-only ablation. This IACUC-approved study involved 11 pigs in an acute setting. Ultrasound was used to guide placement of a thermocouple probe and coaxial device designed for thermochemical ablation. Solutions of 10 M acetic acid and NaOH were used in the study. Four injections per pig were performed in identical order at a total rate of 4 mL/min: saline sham, simultaneous, sequential, and acid only. Volume and sphericity of zones of coagulation were measured. Fixed specimens were examined by H&E stain. Average coagulation volumes were 11.2 mL (simultaneous), 19.0 mL (sequential) and 4.4 mL (acid). The highest temperature, 81.3°C, was obtained with simultaneous injection. Average temperatures were 61.1°C (simultaneous), 47.7°C (sequential) and 39.5°C (acid only). Sphericity coefficients (0.83-0.89) had no statistically significant difference among conditions. Thermochemical ablation produced substantial volumes of coagulated tissues relative to the amounts of reagents injected, considerably greater than acid alone in either technique employed. The largest volumes were obtained with sequential injection, yet this came at a price in one case of cardiac arrest. Simultaneous injection yielded the highest recorded temperatures and may be tolerated as well as or better than acid injection alone. Although this pilot study did not show a clear advantage for either sequential or simultaneous methods, the results indicate that thermochemical ablation is attractive for further investigation with regard to both safety and efficacy.

Sequential super-stereotypy of an instinctive fixed action pattern in hyper-dopaminergic mutant mice: a model of obsessive compulsive disorder and Tourette's

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Houchard Kimberly R

2005-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive sequential stereotypy of behavioral patterns (sequential super-stereotypy in Tourette's syndrome and obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD is thought to involve dysfunction in nigrostriatal dopamine systems. In sequential super-stereotypy, patients become trapped in overly rigid sequential patterns of action, language, or thought. Some instinctive behavioral patterns of animals, such as the syntactic grooming chain pattern of rodents, have sufficiently complex and stereotyped serial structure to detect potential production of overly-rigid sequential patterns. A syntactic grooming chain is a fixed action pattern that serially links up to 25 grooming movements into 4 predictable phases that follow 1 syntactic rule. New mutant mouse models allow gene-based manipulation of brain function relevant to sequential patterns, but no current animal model of spontaneous OCD-like behaviors has so far been reported to exhibit sequential super-stereotypy in the sense of a whole complex serial pattern that becomes stronger and excessively rigid. Here we used a hyper-dopaminergic mutant mouse to examine whether an OCD-like behavioral sequence in animals shows sequential super-stereotypy. Knockdown mutation of the dopamine transporter gene (DAT causes extracellular dopamine levels in the neostriatum of these adult mutant mice to rise to 170% of wild-type control levels. Results We found that the serial pattern of this instinctive behavioral sequence becomes strengthened as an entire entity in hyper-dopaminergic mutants, and more resistant to interruption. Hyper-dopaminergic mutant mice have stronger and more rigid syntactic grooming chain patterns than wild-type control mice. Mutants showed sequential super-stereotypy in the sense of having more stereotyped and predictable syntactic grooming sequences, and were also more likely to resist disruption of the pattern en route, by returning after a disruption to complete the pattern from the

Multiple sequential failure model: A probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta

1985-01-01

This paper rpesents a probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency when multiple tasks are performed. Dependent human failures are dominant contributors to risks from nuclear power plants. An overview of the Multiple Sequential Failure (MSF) model developed and its use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) depending on the available data are discussed. A small-scale psychological experiment was conducted on the nature of human dependency and the interpretation of the experimental data by the MSF model show remarkable accommodation of the dependent failure data. The model, which provides an unique method for quantification of dependent failures in human reliability analysis, can be used in conjunction with any of the general methods currently used for performing the human reliability aspect in PRAs

Encoding Sequential Information in Semantic Space Models: Comparing Holographic Reduced Representation and Random Permutation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Recchia

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Circular convolution and random permutation have each been proposed as neurally plausible binding operators capable of encoding sequential information in semantic memory. We perform several controlled comparisons of circular convolution and random permutation as means of encoding paired associates as well as encoding sequential information. Random permutations outperformed convolution with respect to the number of paired associates that can be reliably stored in a single memory trace. Performance was equal on semantic tasks when using a small corpus, but random permutations were ultimately capable of achieving superior performance due to their higher scalability to large corpora. Finally, “noisy” permutations in which units are mapped to other units arbitrarily (no one-to-one mapping perform nearly as well as true permutations. These findings increase the neurological plausibility of random permutations and highlight their utility in vector space models of semantics.

Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Malhotra, N K

1983-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

Campbell and moment measures for finite sequential spatial processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette)

2006-01-01

textabstractWe define moment and Campbell measures for sequential spatial processes, prove a Campbell-Mecke theorem, and relate the results to their counterparts in the theory of point processes. In particular, we show that any finite sequential spatial process model can be derived as the vector

Generalized infimum and sequential product of quantum effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yuan; Sun Xiuhong; Chen Zhengli

2007-01-01

The quantum effects for a physical system can be described by the set E(H) of positive operators on a complex Hilbert space H that are bounded above by the identity operator I. For A, B(set-membership sign)E(H), the operation of sequential product A(convolution sign)B=A 1/2 BA 1/2 was proposed as a model for sequential quantum measurements. A nice investigation of properties of the sequential product has been carried over [Gudder, S. and Nagy, G., 'Sequential quantum measurements', J. Math. Phys. 42, 5212 (2001)]. In this note, we extend some results of this reference. In particular, a gap in the proof of Theorem 3.2 in this reference is overcome. In addition, some properties of generalized infimum A sqcap B are studied

Dynamics-based sequential memory: Winnerless competition of patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seliger, Philip; Tsimring, Lev S.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

2003-01-01

We introduce a biologically motivated dynamical principle of sequential memory which is based on winnerless competition (WLC) of event images. This mechanism is implemented in a two-layer neural model of sequential spatial memory. We present the learning dynamics which leads to the formation of a WLC network. After learning, the system is capable of associative retrieval of prerecorded sequences of patterns

Behavioral Modeling of WSN MAC Layer Security Attacks: A Sequential UML Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pawar, Pranav M.; Nielsen, Rasmus Hjorth; Prasad, Neeli R.

2012-01-01

is the vulnerability to security attacks/threats. The performance and behavior of a WSN are vastly affected by such attacks. In order to be able to better address the vulnerabilities of WSNs in terms of security, it is important to understand the behavior of the attacks. This paper addresses the behavioral modeling...... of medium access control (MAC) security attacks in WSNs. The MAC layer is responsible for energy consumption, delay and channel utilization of the network and attacks on this layer can introduce significant degradation of the individual sensor nodes due to energy drain and in performance due to delays....... The behavioral modeling of attacks will be beneficial for designing efficient and secure MAC layer protocols. The security attacks are modeled using a sequential diagram approach of Unified Modeling Language (UML). Further, a new attack definition, specific to hybrid MAC mechanisms, is proposed....

Sequential Power-Dependence Theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buskens, Vincent; Rijt, Arnout van de

2008-01-01

Existing methods for predicting resource divisions in laboratory exchange networks do not take into account the sequential nature of the experimental setting. We extend network exchange theory by considering sequential exchange. We prove that Sequential Power-Dependence Theory—unlike

Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

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Željka Asanović

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

Validation studies on indexed sequential modeling for the Colorado River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labadie, J.W.; Fontane, D.G.; Salas, J.D.; Ouarda, T.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on a method called indexed sequential modeling (ISM) that has been developed by the Western Area Power Administration to estimate reliable levels of project dependable power capacity (PDC) and applied to several federal hydro systems in the Western U.S. The validity of ISM in relation to more commonly accepted stochastic modeling approaches is analyzed by applying it to the Colorado River Basin using the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Performance of ISM is compared with results from input of stochastically generated data using the LAST Applied Stochastic Techniques Package. Results indicate that output generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with results obtained from final convergent stochastically generated hydrology for the Colorado River Basin

A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

2007-07-31

The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

A sequential threshold cure model for genetic analysis of time-to-event data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ødegård, J; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo S.

2011-01-01

In analysis of time-to-event data, classical survival models ignore the presence of potential nonsusceptible (cured) individuals, which, if present, will invalidate the inference procedures. Existence of nonsusceptible individuals is particularly relevant under challenge testing with specific...... pathogens, which is a common procedure in aquaculture breeding schemes. A cure model is a survival model accounting for a fraction of nonsusceptible individuals in the population. This study proposes a mixed cure model for time-to-event data, measured as sequential binary records. In a simulation study...... survival data were generated through 2 underlying traits: susceptibility and endurance (risk of dying per time-unit), associated with 2 sets of underlying liabilities. Despite considerable phenotypic confounding, the proposed model was largely able to distinguish the 2 traits. Furthermore, if selection...

A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Gaofeng; Li, Xin; Ma, Jinzhu; Wang, Yunquan; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Kun; Hu, Xiaoli

2018-04-01

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers have become increasing popular for estimating the posterior parameter distribution with the non-linear dependency structures and multiple modes often present in hydrological models. However, the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler depends strongly on the efficiency in the move step of SMC sampler. In this paper we presented a new SMC sampler entitled the Particle Evolution Metropolis Sequential Monte Carlo (PEM-SMC) algorithm, which is well suited to handle unknown static parameters of hydrologic model. The PEM-SMC sampler is inspired by the works of Liang and Wong (2001) and operates by incorporating the strengths of the genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm into the framework of SMC. We also prove that the sampler admits the target distribution to be a stationary distribution. Two case studies including a multi-dimensional bimodal normal distribution and a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model by only considering parameter uncertainty and simultaneously considering parameter and input uncertainty show that PEM-SMC sampler is generally superior to other popular SMC algorithms in handling the high dimensional problems. The study also indicated that it may be important to account for model structural uncertainty by using multiplier different hydrological models in the SMC framework in future study.

Bootstrap Sequential Determination of the Co-integration Rank in VAR Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guiseppe, Cavaliere; Rahbæk, Anders; Taylor, A.M. Robert

with empirical rejection frequencies often very much in excess of the nominal level. As a consequence, bootstrap versions of these tests have been developed. To be useful, however, sequential procedures for determining the co-integrating rank based on these bootstrap tests need to be consistent, in the sense...... in the literature by proposing a bootstrap sequential algorithm which we demonstrate delivers consistent cointegration rank estimation for general I(1) processes. Finite sample Monte Carlo simulations show the proposed procedure performs well in practice....

The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

—: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

OpenAIRE

Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

2008-01-01

We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

Hemodynamic analysis of sequential graft from right coronary system to left coronary system.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenxin; Mao, Boyan; Wang, Haoran; Geng, Xueying; Zhao, Xi; Zhang, Huixia; Xie, Jinsheng; Zhao, Zhou; Lian, Bo; Liu, Youjun

2016-12-28

Sequential and single grafting are two surgical procedures of coronary artery bypass grafting. However, it remains unclear if the sequential graft can be used between the right and left coronary artery system. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the possibility of right coronary artery system anastomosis to left coronary system. A patient-specific 3D model was first reconstructed based on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. Two different grafts, the normal multi-graft (Model 1) and the novel multi-graft (Model 2), were then implemented on this patient-specific model using virtual surgery techniques. In Model 1, the single graft was anastomosed to right coronary artery (RCA) and the sequential graft was adopted to anastomose left anterior descending (LAD) and left circumflex artery (LCX). While in Model 2, the single graft was anastomosed to LAD and the sequential graft was adopted to anastomose RCA and LCX. A zero-dimensional/three-dimensional (0D/3D) coupling method was used to realize the multi-scale simulation of both the pre-operative and two post-operative models. Flow rates in the coronary artery and grafts were obtained. The hemodynamic parameters were also showed, including wall shear stress (WSS) and oscillatory shear index (OSI). The area of low WSS and OSI in Model 1 was much less than that in Model 2. Model 1 shows optimistic hemodynamic modifications which may enhance the long-term patency of grafts. The anterior segments of sequential graft have better long-term patency than the posterior segments. With rational spatial position of the heart vessels, the last anastomosis of sequential graft should be connected to the main branch.

Macroscopic Dynamic Modeling of Sequential Batch Cultures of Hybridoma Cells: An Experimental Validation

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Laurent Dewasme

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Hybridoma cells are commonly grown for the production of monoclonal antibodies (MAb. For monitoring and control purposes of the bioreactors, dynamic models of the cultures are required. However these models are difficult to infer from the usually limited amount of available experimental data and do not focus on target protein production optimization. This paper explores an experimental case study where hybridoma cells are grown in a sequential batch reactor. The simplest macroscopic reaction scheme translating the data is first derived using a maximum likelihood principal component analysis. Subsequently, nonlinear least-squares estimation is used to determine the kinetic laws. The resulting dynamic model reproduces quite satisfactorily the experimental data, as evidenced in direct and cross-validation tests. Furthermore, model predictions can also be used to predict optimal medium renewal time and composition.

Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, Barbara; Mauw, Sjouke; Radomirović, Sasa; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

2015-01-01

We provide the first formal foundation of SAND attack trees which are a popular extension of the well-known attack trees. The SAND at- tack tree formalism increases the expressivity of attack trees by intro- ducing the sequential conjunctive operator SAND. This operator enables the modeling of

Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

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Jun Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

Sequential Logic Model Deciphers Dynamic Transcriptional Control of Gene Expressions

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, Zhen Xuan; Wong, Sum Thai; Arjunan, Satya Nanda Vel; Piras, Vincent; Tomita, Masaru; Selvarajoo, Kumar; Giuliani, Alessandro; Tsuchiya, Masa

2007-01-01

Background Cellular signaling involves a sequence of events from ligand binding to membrane receptors through transcription factors activation and the induction of mRNA expression. The transcriptional-regulatory system plays a pivotal role in the control of gene expression. A novel computational approach to the study of gene regulation circuits is presented here. Methodology Based on the concept of finite state machine, which provides a discrete view of gene regulation, a novel sequential logic model (SLM) is developed to decipher control mechanisms of dynamic transcriptional regulation of gene expressions. The SLM technique is also used to systematically analyze the dynamic function of transcriptional inputs, the dependency and cooperativity, such as synergy effect, among the binding sites with respect to when, how much and how fast the gene of interest is expressed. Principal Findings SLM is verified by a set of well studied expression data on endo16 of Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin) during the embryonic midgut development. A dynamic regulatory mechanism for endo16 expression controlled by three binding sites, UI, R and Otx is identified and demonstrated to be consistent with experimental findings. Furthermore, we show that during transition from specification to differentiation in wild type endo16 expression profile, SLM reveals three binary activities are not sufficient to explain the transcriptional regulation of endo16 expression and additional activities of binding sites are required. Further analyses suggest detailed mechanism of R switch activity where indirect dependency occurs in between UI activity and R switch during specification to differentiation stage. Conclusions/Significance The sequential logic formalism allows for a simplification of regulation network dynamics going from a continuous to a discrete representation of gene activation in time. In effect our SLM is non-parametric and model-independent, yet providing rich biological

Sequential logic model deciphers dynamic transcriptional control of gene expressions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhen Xuan Yeo

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cellular signaling involves a sequence of events from ligand binding to membrane receptors through transcription factors activation and the induction of mRNA expression. The transcriptional-regulatory system plays a pivotal role in the control of gene expression. A novel computational approach to the study of gene regulation circuits is presented here. METHODOLOGY: Based on the concept of finite state machine, which provides a discrete view of gene regulation, a novel sequential logic model (SLM is developed to decipher control mechanisms of dynamic transcriptional regulation of gene expressions. The SLM technique is also used to systematically analyze the dynamic function of transcriptional inputs, the dependency and cooperativity, such as synergy effect, among the binding sites with respect to when, how much and how fast the gene of interest is expressed. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: SLM is verified by a set of well studied expression data on endo16 of Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin during the embryonic midgut development. A dynamic regulatory mechanism for endo16 expression controlled by three binding sites, UI, R and Otx is identified and demonstrated to be consistent with experimental findings. Furthermore, we show that during transition from specification to differentiation in wild type endo16 expression profile, SLM reveals three binary activities are not sufficient to explain the transcriptional regulation of endo16 expression and additional activities of binding sites are required. Further analyses suggest detailed mechanism of R switch activity where indirect dependency occurs in between UI activity and R switch during specification to differentiation stage. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The sequential logic formalism allows for a simplification of regulation network dynamics going from a continuous to a discrete representation of gene activation in time. In effect our SLM is non-parametric and model-independent, yet

Time scale of random sequential adsorption.

Science.gov (United States)

Erban, Radek; Chapman, S Jonathan

2007-04-01

A simple multiscale approach to the diffusion-driven adsorption from a solution to a solid surface is presented. The model combines two important features of the adsorption process: (i) The kinetics of the chemical reaction between adsorbing molecules and the surface and (ii) geometrical constraints on the surface made by molecules which are already adsorbed. The process (i) is modeled in a diffusion-driven context, i.e., the conditional probability of adsorbing a molecule provided that the molecule hits the surface is related to the macroscopic surface reaction rate. The geometrical constraint (ii) is modeled using random sequential adsorption (RSA), which is the sequential addition of molecules at random positions on a surface; one attempt to attach a molecule is made per one RSA simulation time step. By coupling RSA with the diffusion of molecules in the solution above the surface the RSA simulation time step is related to the real physical time. The method is illustrated on a model of chemisorption of reactive polymers to a virus surface.

Modelling Preference Heterogeneity for Theatre Tickets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baldin, Andrea; Bille, Trine

2018-01-01

This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer...... among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect...... of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket....

SPRINT: A Tool to Generate Concurrent Transaction-Level Models from Sequential Code

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Stahl

2007-01-01

Full Text Available A high-level concurrent model such as a SystemC transaction-level model can provide early feedback during the exploration of implementation alternatives for state-of-the-art signal processing applications like video codecs on a multiprocessor platform. However, the creation of such a model starting from sequential code is a time-consuming and error-prone task. It is typically done only once, if at all, for a given design. This lack of exploration of the design space often leads to a suboptimal implementation. To support our systematic C-based design flow, we have developed a tool to generate a concurrent SystemC transaction-level model for user-selected task boundaries. Using this tool, different parallelization alternatives have been evaluated during the design of an MPEG-4 simple profile encoder and an embedded zero-tree coder. Generation plus evaluation of an alternative was possible in less than six minutes. This is fast enough to allow extensive exploration of the design space.

FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRANSPORT MODE PREFERENCE FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MALAYSIA BY LOGIT METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ALI AHMED MOHAMMED

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A study was carried out to examine the perceptions and preferences of students on choosing the type of transportation for their travels in university campus. This study focused on providing personal transport users road transport alternatives as a countermeasure aimed at shifting car users to other modes of transportation. Overall 456 questionnaires were conducted to develop a choice of transportation mode preferences. Consequently, Logit model and SPSS were used to identify the factors that affect the determination of the choice of transportation mode. Results indicated that by reducing travel time by 70% the amount of private cars users will be reduced by 84%, while reduction the travel cost was found to be highly improving the public modes of utilization. This study revealed positive aspects is needed to shift travellers from private modes to public. The positive aspect contributes to travel time and travel cost reduction, hence improving the services, whereby contributing to sustainability.

The Influence of Higher Moments of Earnings Distributions on Career Decisions.

OpenAIRE

Flyer, Fredrick A

1997-01-01

A model where choice of occupation is sequential is applied to college graduates from the National Longitudinal Study of High School Class of 1972 to investigate how higher moments of occupational earnings distributions influence initial field of work. Individual specific life-cycle earnings projections that incorporate option values of occupational mobility are generated, and the relationship between these pay measures and choice of initial occupation is explored within a multinomial logit f...

Valoração de contingente pelas modelagens logit e análise multivariada: um estudo de caso da disposição a aceitar compensação dos cafeicultores vinculados ao PRO-CAFÉ de Viçosa - MG Contingent valuation with modeling logit and multivariate analyses: a case study of the willingness of coffee planters linked to the PRO-COFFEE of Viçosa - MG to accept compensation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Silveira Máximo

2009-12-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.The object of this study was to identify which method, either LOGIT or multivariate analyses, was the most efficient to estimate the coffee planters' Willingness to Accept a Compensation, when there was a possibility of occurrence of marginal utility. For such, a questionnaire was formulated, with 33 questions involving information on coffee planters' socio - economic characteristics, the use of the methodology of contingent valuation (MCV, and the payment of the "offer game" that reveled the willingness to accept a compensation (WAC, by exchanging a hectare of coffee by a hectare of forest. As expected, because of the marginal utility's bias, the LOGIT method was unable to produce consistent results. However, when the WAC was estimated by multivariate analyses, the results showed that if the government is willing to increase the provision of forest to 70 hectares, it should pay out 254,200 reais (around 116,000 dollars, dealing only with the coffee planters

Asynchronous Operators of Sequential Logic Venjunction & Sequention

CERN Document Server

Vasyukevich, Vadim

2011-01-01

This book is dedicated to new mathematical instruments assigned for logical modeling of the memory of digital devices. The case in point is logic-dynamical operation named venjunction and venjunctive function as well as sequention and sequentional function. Venjunction and sequention operate within the framework of sequential logic. In a form of the corresponding equations, they organically fit analytical expressions of Boolean algebra. Thus, a sort of symbiosis is formed using elements of asynchronous sequential logic on the one hand and combinational logic on the other hand. So, asynchronous

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

Sequential Computerized Mastery Tests--Three Simulation Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wiberg, Marie

2006-01-01

A simulation study of a sequential computerized mastery test is carried out with items modeled with the 3 parameter logistic item response theory model. The examinees' responses are either identically distributed, not identically distributed, or not identically distributed together with estimation errors in the item characteristics. The…

AdOn HDP-HMM: An Adaptive Online Model for Segmentation and Classification of Sequential Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bargi, Ava; Xu, Richard Yi Da; Piccardi, Massimo

2017-09-21

Recent years have witnessed an increasing need for the automated classification of sequential data, such as activities of daily living, social media interactions, financial series, and others. With the continuous flow of new data, it is critical to classify the observations on-the-fly and without being limited by a predetermined number of classes. In addition, a model should be able to update its parameters in response to a possible evolution in the distributions of the classes. This compelling problem, however, does not seem to have been adequately addressed in the literature, since most studies focus on offline classification over predefined class sets. In this paper, we present a principled solution for this problem based on an adaptive online system leveraging Markov switching models and hierarchical Dirichlet process priors. This adaptive online approach is capable of classifying the sequential data over an unlimited number of classes while meeting the memory and delay constraints typical of streaming contexts. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive ''learning rate'' that is responsible for balancing the extent to which the model retains its previous parameters or adapts to new observations. Experimental results on stationary and evolving synthetic data and two video data sets, TUM Assistive Kitchen and collated Weizmann, show a remarkable performance in terms of segmentation and classification, particularly for sequences from evolutionary distributions and/or those containing previously unseen classes.

The statistical decay of very hot nuclei: from sequential decay to multifragmentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, B.V.; Donangelo, R.; Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo; Souza, S.R.; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Lynch, W.G.; Steiner, A.W.; Tsang, M.B.

2010-01-01

Full text. At low excitation energies, the compound nucleus typically decays through the sequential emission of light particles. As the energy increases, the emission probability of heavier fragments increases until, at sufficiently high energies, several heavy complex fragments are emitted during the decay. The extent to which this fragment emission is simultaneous or sequential has been a subject of theoretical and experimental study for almost 30 years. The Statistical Multifragmentation Model, an equilibrium model of simultaneous fragment emission, uses the configurations of a statistical ensemble to determine the distribution of primary fragments of a compound nucleus. The primary fragments are then assumed to decay by sequential compound emission or Fermi breakup. As the first step toward a more unified model of these processes, we demonstrate the equivalence of a generalized Fermi breakup model, in which densities of excited states are taken into account, to the microcanonical version of the statistical multifragmentation model. We then establish a link between this unified Fermi breakup / statistical multifragmentation model and the well-known process of compound nucleus emission, which permits to consider simultaneous and sequential emission on the same footing. Within this unified framework, we analyze the increasing importance of simultaneous, multifragment decay with increasing excitation energy and decreasing lifetime of the compound nucleus. (author)

Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task.

Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

2010-06-01

This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

2018-06-01

As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

A Relational Account of Call-by-Value Sequentiality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riecke, Jon Gary; Sandholm, Anders Bo

2002-01-01

We construct a model for FPC, a purely functional, sequential, call-by-value language. The model is built from partial continuous functions, in the style of Plotkin, further constrained to be uniform with respect to a class of logical relations. We prove that the model is fully abstract....

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

UN MODELO LOGIT PARA LA FRAGILIDAD DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO VENEZOLANO DENTRO DEL CONTEXTO DE LOS PROCESOS DE FUSIÓN E INTERVENCIÓN | A LOGIT APPROACH OF THE VENEZUELAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MERGER AND INTERVENTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Rubicundo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In Venezuela there have been more than 30 mergers, after the approval of the Banking Act in 1999, since from 103 institutions, the financial system closed the year 2013 with 35 brokerage firms, which represents a decrease of 66% due to 20 coalitions, 30 transformations and 18 settlements. Therefore, an analysis is proposed of the current economic situation of the financial system in the context of mergers and interventions, considering internal and external factors according to the constituted capital. The study was based on information from 37 private capital institutions and 04 public institutions, between January 2009 and December 2013. The previous analysis for privately held banks, showed that these institutions have a 78.40% chance of not incurring in situations of fragility; while the State capital banks have 83.30% of surviving in the market. As for the estimated logit models, it was found that the liquidity ratio, ROE, management index and inflation, are components that push towards a fragile situation for privately held banks, with a probability forecast of fragility. With regard to the state capital banks, this situation is explained by a 62.50% equity index, ROE, and inflation. A probability of stability for these banks is expected. The joint model forecasted a probability of a stable financial system for the coming months.

Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

OpenAIRE

Bagley, Michael N.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

1997-01-01

This study examines three models of the individual’s preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted p2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 =0.64). A nested logit model is...

Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

KAUST Repository

Kim, Kwang-Ki K.

2014-12-15

This paper considers multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing and presents a framework for strategic learning in sequential games with explicit consideration of both temporal and spatial coordination. The associated Bayes risk functions explicitly incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well-defined value functions with respect to (a) the belief states for the case of conditional independent private noisy measurements that are also assumed to be independent identically distributed over time, and (b) the information states for the case of correlated private noisy measurements. A sequential investment game of strategic coordination and delay is also discussed as an application of the proposed strategic learning rules.

Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

2017-01-01

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

Learning of state-space models with highly informative observations: A tempered sequential Monte Carlo solution

Science.gov (United States)

Svensson, Andreas; Schön, Thomas B.; Lindsten, Fredrik

2018-05-01

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on standard personal computers thanks to recent advances in Monte Carlo methods. In particular, for learning of unknown parameters in nonlinear state-space models, methods based on the particle filter (a Monte Carlo method) have proven very useful. A notoriously challenging problem, however, still occurs when the observations in the state-space model are highly informative, i.e. when there is very little or no measurement noise present, relative to the amount of process noise. The particle filter will then struggle in estimating one of the basic components for probabilistic learning, namely the likelihood p (data | parameters). To this end we suggest an algorithm which initially assumes that there is substantial amount of artificial measurement noise present. The variance of this noise is sequentially decreased in an adaptive fashion such that we, in the end, recover the original problem or possibly a very close approximation of it. The main component in our algorithm is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which gives our proposed method a clear resemblance to the SMC2 method. Another natural link is also made to the ideas underlying the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We illustrate it with numerical examples, and in particular show promising results for a challenging Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem.

On the origin of reproducible sequential activity in neural circuits

Science.gov (United States)

Afraimovich, V. S.; Zhigulin, V. P.; Rabinovich, M. I.

2004-12-01

Robustness and reproducibility of sequential spatio-temporal responses is an essential feature of many neural circuits in sensory and motor systems of animals. The most common mathematical images of dynamical regimes in neural systems are fixed points, limit cycles, chaotic attractors, and continuous attractors (attractive manifolds of neutrally stable fixed points). These are not suitable for the description of reproducible transient sequential neural dynamics. In this paper we present the concept of a stable heteroclinic sequence (SHS), which is not an attractor. SHS opens the way for understanding and modeling of transient sequential activity in neural circuits. We show that this new mathematical object can be used to describe robust and reproducible sequential neural dynamics. Using the framework of a generalized high-dimensional Lotka-Volterra model, that describes the dynamics of firing rates in an inhibitory network, we present analytical results on the existence of the SHS in the phase space of the network. With the help of numerical simulations we confirm its robustness in presence of noise in spite of the transient nature of the corresponding trajectories. Finally, by referring to several recent neurobiological experiments, we discuss possible applications of this new concept to several problems in neuroscience.

The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

Science.gov (United States)

De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

2017-05-01

Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

2014-01-01

Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

Comparison of four mathematical models for the calculation of radioimmunoassay data of LH, FSH and GH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geier, T.; Rohde, W.

1981-01-01

Weighted linear logit-log regression, point-to-point logit-log interpolation, smoothing spline approximation and the four-parameter logistic function calculated by non-linear regression have been compared. The data for comparison have been obtained from two different pool-sera for each of the LH-, FSH- and GH-RIA and from the basal serum LH values of two populations of children. The Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank test was used for comparison: For GH there is no significant difference between all methods, for FSH the weighted linear logit-log regression and spline approximation appeared to be equivalent, but for LH no unequivocal assertion can be made. There is no significant difference between the mathematical models for determination of hormone concentration within one assay run of a population as exemplified for LH. In addition, pool sera data were subjected to an analysis of variance and the comparison of the results revealed that the different models did not lead to different statements about assay performance. The point-to-point logit-log interpolation is proposed as most simple curvilinear approximation for assays which cannot be linearized by logit-log transformation. (author)

Sequential charged particle reaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hori, Jun-ichi; Ochiai, Kentaro; Sato, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Michinori; Nishitani, Takeo

2004-01-01

The effective cross sections for producing the sequential reaction products in F82H, pure vanadium and LiF with respect to the 14.9-MeV neutron were obtained and compared with the estimation ones. Since the sequential reactions depend on the secondary charged particles behavior, the effective cross sections are corresponding to the target nuclei and the material composition. The effective cross sections were also estimated by using the EAF-libraries and compared with the experimental ones. There were large discrepancies between estimated and experimental values. Additionally, we showed the contribution of the sequential reaction on the induced activity and dose rate in the boundary region with water. From the present study, it has been clarified that the sequential reactions are of great importance to evaluate the dose rates around the surface of cooling pipe and the activated corrosion products. (author)

Automatic synthesis of sequential control schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, I.

1993-01-01

Of all hard- and software developed for industrial control purposes, the majority is devoted to sequential, or binary valued, control and only a minor part to classical linear control. Typically, the sequential parts of the controller are invoked during startup and shut-down to bring the system into its normal operating region and into some safe standby region, respectively. Despite its importance, fairly little theoretical research has been devoted to this area, and sequential control programs are therefore still created manually without much theoretical support to obtain a systematic approach. We propose a method to create sequential control programs automatically. The main ideas is to spend some effort off-line modelling the plant, and from this model generate the control strategy, that is the plan. The plant is modelled using action structures, thereby concentrating on the actions instead of the states of the plant. In general the planning problem shows exponential complexity in the number of state variables. However, by focusing on the actions, we can identify problem classes as well as algorithms such that the planning complexity is reduced to polynomial complexity. We prove that these algorithms are sound, i.e., the generated solution will solve the stated problem, and complete, i.e., if the algorithms fail, then no solution exists. The algorithms generate a plan as a set of actions and a partial order on this set specifying the execution order. The generated plant is proven to be minimal and maximally parallel. For a larger class of problems we propose a method to split the original problem into a number of simple problems that can each be solved using one of the presented algorithms. It is also shown how a plan can be translated into a GRAFCET chart, and to illustrate these ideas we have implemented a planing tool, i.e., a system that is able to automatically create control schemes. Such a tool can of course also be used on-line if it is fast enough. This

Lexical decoder for continuous speech recognition: sequential neural network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iooss, Christine

1991-01-01

The work presented in this dissertation concerns the study of a connectionist architecture to treat sequential inputs. In this context, the model proposed by J.L. Elman, a recurrent multilayers network, is used. Its abilities and its limits are evaluated. Modifications are done in order to treat erroneous or noisy sequential inputs and to classify patterns. The application context of this study concerns the realisation of a lexical decoder for analytical multi-speakers continuous speech recognition. Lexical decoding is completed from lattices of phonemes which are obtained after an acoustic-phonetic decoding stage relying on a K Nearest Neighbors search technique. Test are done on sentences formed from a lexicon of 20 words. The results are obtained show the ability of the proposed connectionist model to take into account the sequentiality at the input level, to memorize the context and to treat noisy or erroneous inputs. (author) [fr

Optimal Energy Management of Multi-Microgrids with Sequentially Coordinated Operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nah-Oak Song

2015-08-01

Full Text Available We propose an optimal electric energy management of a cooperative multi-microgrid community with sequentially coordinated operations. The sequentially coordinated operations are suggested to distribute computational burden and yet to make the optimal 24 energy management of multi-microgrids possible. The sequential operations are mathematically modeled to find the optimal operation conditions and illustrated with physical interpretation of how to achieve optimal energy management in the cooperative multi-microgrid community. This global electric energy optimization of the cooperative community is realized by the ancillary internal trading between the microgrids in the cooperative community which reduces the extra cost from unnecessary external trading by adjusting the electric energy production amounts of combined heat and power (CHP generators and amounts of both internal and external electric energy trading of the cooperative community. A simulation study is also conducted to validate the proposed mathematical energy management models.

A Sequential Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter for Attitude Estimation Using Vector Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Fangjun; Jiang, Sai; Zha, Feng

2018-01-01

In this paper, a sequential multiplicative extended Kalman filter (SMEKF) is proposed for attitude estimation using vector observations. In the proposed SMEKF, each of the vector observations is processed sequentially to update the attitude, which can make the measurement model linearization more accurate for the next vector observation. This is the main difference to Murrell’s variation of the MEKF, which does not update the attitude estimate during the sequential procedure. Meanwhile, the covariance is updated after all the vector observations have been processed, which is used to account for the special characteristics of the reset operation necessary for the attitude update. This is the main difference to the traditional sequential EKF, which updates the state covariance at each step of the sequential procedure. The numerical simulation study demonstrates that the proposed SMEKF has more consistent and accurate performance in a wide range of initial estimate errors compared to the MEKF and its traditional sequential forms. PMID:29751538

A Sequential Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter for Attitude Estimation Using Vector Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fangjun Qin

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a sequential multiplicative extended Kalman filter (SMEKF is proposed for attitude estimation using vector observations. In the proposed SMEKF, each of the vector observations is processed sequentially to update the attitude, which can make the measurement model linearization more accurate for the next vector observation. This is the main difference to Murrell’s variation of the MEKF, which does not update the attitude estimate during the sequential procedure. Meanwhile, the covariance is updated after all the vector observations have been processed, which is used to account for the special characteristics of the reset operation necessary for the attitude update. This is the main difference to the traditional sequential EKF, which updates the state covariance at each step of the sequential procedure. The numerical simulation study demonstrates that the proposed SMEKF has more consistent and accurate performance in a wide range of initial estimate errors compared to the MEKF and its traditional sequential forms.

Sequential Foreign Investments, Regional Technology Platforms and the Evolution of Japanese Multinationals in East Asia

OpenAIRE

Song, Jaeyong

2001-01-01

IVABSTRACTIn this paper, we investigate the firm-level mechanisms that underlie the sequential foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs). To understand inter-firm heterogeneity in the sequential FDI behaviors of MNCs, we develop a firm capability-based model of sequential FDI decisions. In the setting of Japanese electronics MNCs in East Asia, we empirically examine how prior investments in firm capabilities affect sequential investments into existingprodu...

Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

2013-12-01

Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Relative resilience to noise of standard and sequential approaches to measurement-based quantum computation

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, C. B.; Ferraro, A.

2018-05-01

A possible alternative to the standard model of measurement-based quantum computation (MBQC) is offered by the sequential model of MBQC—a particular class of quantum computation via ancillae. Although these two models are equivalent under ideal conditions, their relative resilience to noise in practical conditions is not yet known. We analyze this relationship for various noise models in the ancilla preparation and in the entangling-gate implementation. The comparison of the two models is performed utilizing both the gate infidelity and the diamond distance as figures of merit. Our results show that in the majority of instances the sequential model outperforms the standard one in regard to a universal set of operations for quantum computation. Further investigation is made into the performance of sequential MBQC in experimental scenarios, thus setting benchmarks for possible cavity-QED implementations.

Methamphetamine-alcohol interactions in murine models of sequential and simultaneous oral drug-taking.

Science.gov (United States)

Fultz, Elissa K; Martin, Douglas L; Hudson, Courtney N; Kippin, Tod E; Szumlinski, Karen K

2017-08-01

A high degree of co-morbidity exists between methamphetamine (MA) addiction and alcohol use disorders and both sequential and simultaneous MA-alcohol mixing increases risk for co-abuse. As little preclinical work has focused on the biobehavioral interactions between MA and alcohol within the context of drug-taking behavior, we employed simple murine models of voluntary oral drug consumption to examine how prior histories of either MA- or alcohol-taking influence the intake of the other drug. In one study, mice with a 10-day history of binge alcohol-drinking [5,10, 20 and 40% (v/v); 2h/day] were trained to self-administer oral MA in an operant-conditioning paradigm (10-40mg/L). In a second study, mice with a 10-day history of limited-access oral MA-drinking (5, 10, 20 and 40mg/L; 2h/day) were presented with alcohol (5-40% v/v; 2h/day) and then a choice between solutions of 20% alcohol, 10mg/L MA or their mix. Under operant-conditioning procedures, alcohol-drinking mice exhibited less MA reinforcement overall, than water controls. However, when drug availability was not behaviorally-contingent, alcohol-drinking mice consumed more MA and exhibited greater preference for the 10mg/L MA solution than drug-naïve and combination drug-experienced mice. Conversely, prior MA-drinking history increased alcohol intake across a range of alcohol concentrations. These exploratory studies indicate the feasibility of employing procedurally simple murine models of sequential and simultaneous oral MA-alcohol mixing of relevance to advancing our biobehavioral understanding of MA-alcohol co-abuse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sequential Path Model for Grain Yield in Soybean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad SEDGHI

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This study was performed to determine some physiological traits that affect soybean,s grain yield via sequential path analysis. In a factorial experiment, two cultivars (Harcor and Williams were sown under four levels of nitrogen and two levels of weed management at the research station of Tabriz University, Iran, during 2004 and 2005. Grain yield, some yield components and physiological traits were measured. Correlation coefficient analysis showed that grain yield had significant positive and negative association with measured traits. A sequential path analysis was done in order to evaluate associations among grain yield and related traits by ordering the various variables in first, second and third order paths on the basis of their maximum direct effects and minimal collinearity. Two first-order variables, namely number of pods per plant and pre-flowering net photosynthesis revealed highest direct effect on total grain yield and explained 49, 44 and 47 % of the variation in grain yield based on 2004, 2005, and combined datasets, respectively. Four traits i.e. post-flowering net photosynthesis, plant height, leaf area index and intercepted radiation at the bottom layer of canopy were found to fit as second-order variables. Pre- and post-flowering chlorophyll content, main root length and intercepted radiation at the middle layer of canopy were placed at the third-order path. From the results concluded that, number of pods per plant and pre-flowering net photosynthesis are the best selection criteria in soybean for grain yield.

A path-level exact parallelization strategy for sequential simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Peredo, Oscar F.; Baeza, Daniel; Ortiz, Julián M.; Herrero, José R.

2018-01-01

Sequential Simulation is a well known method in geostatistical modelling. Following the Bayesian approach for simulation of conditionally dependent random events, Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) method draws simulated values for K categories (categorical case) or classes defined by K different thresholds (continuous case). Similarly, Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) method draws simulated values from a multivariate Gaussian field. In this work, a path-level approach to parallelize SIS and SGS methods is presented. A first stage of re-arrangement of the simulation path is performed, followed by a second stage of parallel simulation for non-conflicting nodes. A key advantage of the proposed parallelization method is to generate identical realizations as with the original non-parallelized methods. Case studies are presented using two sequential simulation codes from GSLIB: SISIM and SGSIM. Execution time and speedup results are shown for large-scale domains, with many categories and maximum kriging neighbours in each case, achieving high speedup results in the best scenarios using 16 threads of execution in a single machine.

A Data-Driven Method for Selecting Optimal Models Based on Graphical Visualisation of Differences in Sequentially Fitted ROC Model Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K S Mwitondi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Differences in modelling techniques and model performance assessments typically impinge on the quality of knowledge extraction from data. We propose an algorithm for determining optimal patterns in data by separately training and testing three decision tree models in the Pima Indians Diabetes and the Bupa Liver Disorders datasets. Model performance is assessed using ROC curves and the Youden Index. Moving differences between sequential fitted parameters are then extracted, and their respective probability density estimations are used to track their variability using an iterative graphical data visualisation technique developed for this purpose. Our results show that the proposed strategy separates the groups more robustly than the plain ROC/Youden approach, eliminates obscurity, and minimizes over-fitting. Further, the algorithm can easily be understood by non-specialists and demonstrates multi-disciplinary compliance.

Exposure assessment of mobile phone base station radiation in an outdoor environment using sequential surrogate modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, Sam; Deschrijver, Dirk; Joseph, Wout; Verloock, Leen; Goeminne, Francis; Martens, Luc; Dhaene, Tom

2013-05-01

Human exposure to background radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) has been increasing with the introduction of new technologies. There is a definite need for the quantification of RF-EMF exposure but a robust exposure assessment is not yet possible, mainly due to the lack of a fast and efficient measurement procedure. In this article, a new procedure is proposed for accurately mapping the exposure to base station radiation in an outdoor environment based on surrogate modeling and sequential design, an entirely new approach in the domain of dosimetry for human RF exposure. We tested our procedure in an urban area of about 0.04 km(2) for Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) technology at 900 MHz (GSM900) using a personal exposimeter. Fifty measurement locations were sufficient to obtain a coarse street exposure map, locating regions of high and low exposure; 70 measurement locations were sufficient to characterize the electric field distribution in the area and build an accurate predictive interpolation model. Hence, accurate GSM900 downlink outdoor exposure maps (for use in, e.g., governmental risk communication and epidemiological studies) are developed by combining the proven efficiency of sequential design with the speed of exposimeter measurements and their ease of handling. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mind-to-mind heteroclinic coordination: Model of sequential episodic memory initiation

Science.gov (United States)

Afraimovich, V. S.; Zaks, M. A.; Rabinovich, M. I.

2018-05-01

Retrieval of episodic memory is a dynamical process in the large scale brain networks. In social groups, the neural patterns, associated with specific events directly experienced by single members, are encoded, recalled, and shared by all participants. Here, we construct and study the dynamical model for the formation and maintaining of episodic memory in small ensembles of interacting minds. We prove that the unconventional dynamical attractor of this process—the nonsmooth heteroclinic torus—is structurally stable within the Lotka-Volterra-like sets of equations. Dynamics on this torus combines the absence of chaos with asymptotic instability of every separate trajectory; its adequate quantitative characteristics are length-related Lyapunov exponents. Variation of the coupling strength between the participants results in different types of sequential switching between metastable states; we interpret them as stages in formation and modification of the episodic memory.

Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seidenfeld, T.

1982-01-01

The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dario Cuevas Rivera

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

Sequential lineup laps and eyewitness accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Steblay, Nancy K; Dietrich, Hannah L; Ryan, Shannon L; Raczynski, Jeanette L; James, Kali A

2011-08-01

Police practice of double-blind sequential lineups prompts a question about the efficacy of repeated viewings (laps) of the sequential lineup. Two laboratory experiments confirmed the presence of a sequential lap effect: an increase in witness lineup picks from first to second lap, when the culprit was a stranger. The second lap produced more errors than correct identifications. In Experiment 2, lineup diagnosticity was significantly higher for sequential lineup procedures that employed a single versus double laps. Witnesses who elected to view a second lap made significantly more errors than witnesses who chose to stop after one lap or those who were required to view two laps. Witnesses with prior exposure to the culprit did not exhibit a sequential lap effect.

Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

Robustness of the Sequential Lineup Advantage

Science.gov (United States)

Gronlund, Scott D.; Carlson, Curt A.; Dailey, Sarah B.; Goodsell, Charles A.

2009-01-01

A growing movement in the United States and around the world involves promoting the advantages of conducting an eyewitness lineup in a sequential manner. We conducted a large study (N = 2,529) that included 24 comparisons of sequential versus simultaneous lineups. A liberal statistical criterion revealed only 2 significant sequential lineup…

Multiplicity distributions and multiplicity correlations in sequential, off-equilibrium fragmentation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botet, R.

1996-01-01

A new kinetic fragmentation model, the Fragmentation - Inactivation -Binary (FIB) model is described where a dissipative process stops randomly the sequential, conservative and off-equilibrium fragmentation process. (K.A.)

Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Lu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

Comparison on models for genetic evaluation of non-return rate and success in first insemination of the Danish Holstein cow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sun, C; Su, G

2010-01-01

The aim of is study was to compare a linear Gaussian model with logit model and probit model for genetic evaluation of non-return rate within 56 d after first-insemination (NRR56) and success in first insemination (SFI). The whole dataset used in the analysis contained 471,742 records from...... the EBV of proven bulls, obtained from the whole dataset and from a reduced dataset which only contains the first-crop daughters of sires; 2) χ2 statistic for the expected and observed frequency in a cross validation. Heritabilities estimated using linear, probit and logit models were 0.011, 0.014 and 0....... Model validation showed that there was no difference between probit model and logit model, but the two models were better than linear model in stability and predictive ability for genetic evaluation of NRR56 and SFI. However, based on the whole dataset, the correlations between EBV estimated using...

Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

KAUST Repository

Kim, Kwang-Ki K.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2014-01-01

incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well

Random sequential adsorption of cubes

Science.gov (United States)

Cieśla, Michał; Kubala, Piotr

2018-01-01

Random packings built of cubes are studied numerically using a random sequential adsorption algorithm. To compare the obtained results with previous reports, three different models of cube orientation sampling were used. Also, three different cube-cube intersection algorithms were tested to find the most efficient one. The study focuses on the mean saturated packing fraction as well as kinetics of packing growth. Microstructural properties of packings were analyzed using density autocorrelation function.

Sequential stochastic optimization

CERN Document Server

Cairoli, Renzo

1996-01-01

Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet

Direct methods and residue type specific isotope labeling in NMR structure determination and model-driven sequential assignment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schedlbauer, Andreas; Auer, Renate; Ledolter, Karin; Tollinger, Martin; Kloiber, Karin; Lichtenecker, Roman; Ruedisser, Simon; Hommel, Ulrich; Schmid, Walther; Konrat, Robert; Kontaxis, Georg

2008-01-01

Direct methods in NMR based structure determination start from an unassigned ensemble of unconnected gaseous hydrogen atoms. Under favorable conditions they can produce low resolution structures of proteins. Usually a prohibitively large number of NOEs is required, to solve a protein structure ab-initio, but even with a much smaller set of distance restraints low resolution models can be obtained which resemble a protein fold. One problem is that at such low resolution and in the absence of a force field it is impossible to distinguish the correct protein fold from its mirror image. In a hybrid approach these ambiguous models have the potential to aid in the process of sequential backbone chemical shift assignment when 13 C β and 13 C' shifts are not available for sensitivity reasons. Regardless of the overall fold they enhance the information content of the NOE spectra. These, combined with residue specific labeling and minimal triple-resonance data using 13 C α connectivity can provide almost complete sequential assignment. Strategies for residue type specific labeling with customized isotope labeling patterns are of great advantage in this context. Furthermore, this approach is to some extent error-tolerant with respect to data incompleteness, limited precision of the peak picking, and structural errors caused by misassignment of NOEs

Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

2016-10-15

Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

Joint Data Assimilation and Parameter Calibration in on-line groundwater modelling using Sequential Monte Carlo techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Ramgraber, M.; Schirmer, M.

2017-12-01

As computational power grows and wireless sensor networks find their way into common practice, it becomes increasingly feasible to pursue on-line numerical groundwater modelling. The reconciliation of model predictions with sensor measurements often necessitates the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques, most prominently represented by the Ensemble Kalman Filter. In the pursuit of on-line predictions it seems advantageous to transcend the scope of pure data assimilation and incorporate on-line parameter calibration as well. Unfortunately, the interplay between shifting model parameters and transient states is non-trivial. Several recent publications (e.g. Chopin et al., 2013, Kantas et al., 2015) in the field of statistics discuss potential algorithms addressing this issue. However, most of these are computationally intractable for on-line application. In this study, we investigate to what extent compromises between mathematical rigour and computational restrictions can be made within the framework of on-line numerical modelling of groundwater. Preliminary studies are conducted in a synthetic setting, with the goal of transferring the conclusions drawn into application in a real-world setting. To this end, a wireless sensor network has been established in the valley aquifer around Fehraltorf, characterized by a highly dynamic groundwater system and located about 20 km to the East of Zürich, Switzerland. By providing continuous probabilistic estimates of the state and parameter distribution, a steady base for branched-off predictive scenario modelling could be established, providing water authorities with advanced tools for assessing the impact of groundwater management practices. Chopin, N., Jacob, P.E. and Papaspiliopoulos, O. (2013): SMC2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 75 (3), p. 397-426. Kantas, N., Doucet, A., Singh, S

Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

2017-01-01

In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

Identification and comparison of predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity in the case of prostatic irradiation; Identification et comparaison de modeles predictifs de toxicite rectale et vesicale en cas d'irradiation prostatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gnep, K.; Chira, C.; Le Prise, E.; Crevoisier, R. de [Centre Eugene-Marquis, Rennes (France); Zhu, J.; Simon, A.; Ospina Arango, J.D. [Inserm U642, Rennes (France); Messai, T.; Bossi, A. [Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Beckendorf, V. [Centre Alexis-Vautrin, Nancy (France)

2011-10-15

More than 400 patients have been treated by conformational radiation therapy for a localized prostate adenocarcinoma and some have been selected according to the availability of dose-volume histograms. Predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity have been compared: LKB, Logit EUD and Poisson EUD for rectal toxicity, LKB, Logit EUD, Poisson EUD and Schultheiss for bladder toxicity. Results suggest that these models could be used during the inverse planning of intensity-modulated radiation therapy in order to decrease toxicity. Short communication

Sequential lineup presentation promotes less-biased criterion setting but does not improve discriminability.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil

2012-06-01

When compared with simultaneous lineup presentation, sequential presentation has been shown to reduce false identifications to a greater extent than it reduces correct identifications. However, there has been much debate about whether this difference in identification performance represents improved discriminability or more conservative responding. In this research, data from 22 experiments that compared sequential and simultaneous lineups were analyzed using a compound signal-detection model, which is specifically designed to describe decision-making performance on tasks such as eyewitness identification tests. Sequential (cf. simultaneous) presentation did not influence discriminability, but produced a conservative shift in response bias that resulted in less-biased choosing for sequential than simultaneous lineups. These results inform understanding of the effects of lineup presentation mode on eyewitness identification decisions.

Learning Orthographic Structure With Sequential Generative Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin; Sperduti, Alessandro; Zorzi, Marco

2016-04-01

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in connectionist modeling. Here, we investigated a sequential version of the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a stochastic recurrent neural network that extracts high-order structure from sensory data through unsupervised generative learning and can encode contextual information in the form of internal, distributed representations. We assessed whether this type of network can extract the orthographic structure of English monosyllables by learning a generative model of the letter sequences forming a word training corpus. We show that the network learned an accurate probabilistic model of English graphotactics, which can be used to make predictions about the letter following a given context as well as to autonomously generate high-quality pseudowords. The model was compared to an extended version of simple recurrent networks, augmented with a stochastic process that allows autonomous generation of sequences, and to non-connectionist probabilistic models (n-grams and hidden Markov models). We conclude that sequential RBMs and stochastic simple recurrent networks are promising candidates for modeling cognition in the temporal domain. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Sequential lineup presentation: Patterns and policy

OpenAIRE

Lindsay, R C L; Mansour, Jamal K; Beaudry, J L; Leach, A-M; Bertrand, M I

2009-01-01

Sequential lineups were offered as an alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup. Sequential lineups reduce incorrect lineup selections; however, the accompanying loss of correct identifications has resulted in controversy regarding adoption of the technique. We discuss the procedure and research relevant to (1) the pattern of results found using sequential versus simultaneous lineups; (2) reasons (theory) for differences in witness responses; (3) two methodological issues; and (4) im...

Human visual system automatically encodes sequential regularities of discrete events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimura, Motohiro; Schröger, Erich; Czigler, István; Ohira, Hideki

2010-06-01

regularities. In combination with a wide range of auditory MMN studies, the present study highlights the critical role of sensory systems in automatically encoding sequential regularities when modeling the world.

Sequential Product of Quantum Effects: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Gudder, Stan

2010-12-01

This article presents an overview for the theory of sequential products of quantum effects. We first summarize some of the highlights of this relatively recent field of investigation and then provide some new results. We begin by discussing sequential effect algebras which are effect algebras endowed with a sequential product satisfying certain basic conditions. We then consider sequential products of (discrete) quantum measurements. We next treat transition effect matrices (TEMs) and their associated sequential product. A TEM is a matrix whose entries are effects and whose rows form quantum measurements. We show that TEMs can be employed for the study of quantum Markov chains. Finally, we prove some new results concerning TEMs and vector densities.

Comparison of Sequential and Variational Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Weerts, Albrecht

2017-04-01

Data assimilation is a valuable tool to improve model state estimates by combining measured observations with model simulations. It has recently gained significant attention due to its potential in using remote sensing products to improve operational hydrological forecasts and for reanalysis purposes. This has been supported by the application of sequential techniques such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter which require no additional features within the modeling process, i.e. it can use arbitrary black-box models. Alternatively, variational techniques rely on optimization algorithms to minimize a pre-defined objective function. This function describes the trade-off between the amount of noise introduced into the system and the mismatch between simulated and observed variables. While sequential techniques have been commonly applied to hydrological processes, variational techniques are seldom used. In our believe, this is mainly attributed to the required computation of first order sensitivities by algorithmic differentiation techniques and related model enhancements, but also to lack of comparison between both techniques. We contribute to filling this gap and present the results from the assimilation of streamflow data in two basins located in Germany and Canada. The assimilation introduces noise to precipitation and temperature to produce better initial estimates of an HBV model. The results are computed for a hindcast period and assessed using lead time performance metrics. The study concludes with a discussion of the main features of each technique and their advantages/disadvantages in hydrological applications.

Strategic Path Planning by Sequential Parametric Bayesian Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baro Hyun

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to generate a path for a mobile agent that carries sensors used for classification, where the path is to optimize strategic objectives that account for misclassification and the consequences of misclassification, and where the weights assigned to these consequences are chosen by a strategist. We propose a model that accounts for the interaction between the agent kinematics (i.e., the ability to move, informatics (i.e., the ability to process data to information, classification (i.e., the ability to classify objects based on the information, and strategy (i.e., the mission objective. Within this model, we pose and solve a sequential decision problem that accounts for strategist preferences and the solution to the problem yields a sequence of kinematic decisions of a moving agent. The solution of the sequential decision problem yields the following flying tactics: “approach only objects whose suspected identity matters to the strategy”. These tactics are numerically illustrated in several scenarios.

Using continuation-ratio logits to analyze the variation of the age composition of fish catches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

2000-01-01

Major sources of information for the estimation of the size of the fish stocks and the rate of their exploitation are samples from which the age composition of catches may be determined However, the age composition in the catches often varies as a result of several factors. Stratification...... of the sampling is desirable, because it leads to better estimates of the age composition, and the corresponding variances and covariances. The analysis is impeded by the fact that the response is ordered categorical. This paper introduces an easily applicable method to analyze such data. The method combines...... be applied separately to each level of the logits. The method is illustrated by the analysis of age-composition data collected from the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea in 1993. The significance of possible sources of variation is evaluated, and formulae for estimating the proportions of each age...

Analysis of membrane fusion as a two-state sequential process: evaluation of the stalk model.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinreb, Gabriel; Lentz, Barry R

2007-06-01

We propose a model that accounts for the time courses of PEG-induced fusion of membrane vesicles of varying lipid compositions and sizes. The model assumes that fusion proceeds from an initial, aggregated vesicle state ((A) membrane contact) through two sequential intermediate states (I(1) and I(2)) and then on to a fusion pore state (FP). Using this model, we interpreted data on the fusion of seven different vesicle systems. We found that the initial aggregated state involved no lipid or content mixing but did produce leakage. The final state (FP) was not leaky. Lipid mixing normally dominated the first intermediate state (I(1)), but content mixing signal was also observed in this state for most systems. The second intermediate state (I(2)) exhibited both lipid and content mixing signals and leakage, and was sometimes the only leaky state. In some systems, the first and second intermediates were indistinguishable and converted directly to the FP state. Having also tested a parallel, two-intermediate model subject to different assumptions about the nature of the intermediates, we conclude that a sequential, two-intermediate model is the simplest model sufficient to describe PEG-mediated fusion in all vesicle systems studied. We conclude as well that a fusion intermediate "state" should not be thought of as a fixed structure (e.g., "stalk" or "transmembrane contact") of uniform properties. Rather, a fusion "state" describes an ensemble of similar structures that can have different mechanical properties. Thus, a "state" can have varying probabilities of having a given functional property such as content mixing, lipid mixing, or leakage. Our data show that the content mixing signal may occur through two processes, one correlated and one not correlated with leakage. Finally, we consider the implications of our results in terms of the "modified stalk" hypothesis for the mechanism of lipid pore formation. We conclude that our results not only support this hypothesis but

Quantum Inequalities and Sequential Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candelpergher, B.; Grandouz, T.; Rubinx, J.L.

2011-01-01

In this article, the peculiar context of sequential measurements is chosen in order to analyze the quantum specificity in the two most famous examples of Heisenberg and Bell inequalities: Results are found at some interesting variance with customary textbook materials, where the context of initial state re-initialization is described. A key-point of the analysis is the possibility of defining Joint Probability Distributions for sequential random variables associated to quantum operators. Within the sequential context, it is shown that Joint Probability Distributions can be defined in situations where not all of the quantum operators (corresponding to random variables) do commute two by two. (authors)

Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huber-Wagner S

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

"Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason W. Osborne

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These outcomes represent important social science lines of research: retention in, or dropout from school, using illicit drugs, underage alcohol consumption, antisocial behavior, purchasing decisions, voting patterns, risky behavior, and so on. The goal of this paper is to briefly lead the reader through the surprisingly simple mathematics that underpins logistic regression: probabilities, odds, odds ratios, and logits. Anyone with spreadsheet software or a scientific calculator can follow along, and in turn, this knowledge can be used to make much more interesting, clear, and accurate presentations of results (especially to non-technical audiences. In particular, I will share an example of an interaction in logistic regression, how it was originally graphed, and how the graph was made substantially more user-friendly by converting the original metric (logits to a more readily interpretable metric (probability through three simple steps.

Distributed data access in the sequential access model at the D0 experiment at Fermilab

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terekhov, Igor; White, Victoria

2000-01-01

The authors present the Sequential Access Model (SAM), which is the data handling system for D0, one of two primary High Energy Experiments at Fermilab. During the next several years, the D0 experiment will store a total of about 1 PByte of data, including raw detector data and data processed at various levels. The design of SAM is not specific to the D0 experiment and carries few assumptions about the underlying mass storage level; its ideas are applicable to any sequential data access. By definition, in the sequential access mode a user application needs to process a stream of data, by accessing each data unit exactly once, the order of data units in the stream being irrelevant. The units of data are laid out sequentially in files. The adopted model allows for significant optimizations of system performance, decrease of user file latency and increase of overall throughput. In particular, caching is done with the knowledge of all the files needed in the near future, defined as all the files of the already running or submitted jobs. The bulk of the data is stored in files on tape in the mass storage system (MSS) called Enstore[2] and also developed at Fermilab. (The tape drives are served by an ADIC AML/2 Automated Tape Library). At any given time, SAM has a small fraction of the data cached on disk for processing. In the present paper, the authors discuss how data is delivered onto disk and how it is accessed by user applications. They will concentrate on data retrieval (consumption) from the MSS; when SAM is used for storing of data, the mechanisms are rather symmetrical. All of the data managed by SAM is cataloged in great detail in a relational database (ORACLE). The database also serves as the persistency mechanism for the SAM servers described in this paper. Any client or server in the SAM system which needs to store or retrieve information from the database does so through the interfaces of a CORBA-based database server. The users (physicists) use the

Sequential Uniformly Reweighted Sum-Product Algorithm for Cooperative Localization in Wireless Networks

OpenAIRE

Li, Wei; Yang, Zhen; Hu, Haifeng

2014-01-01

Graphical models have been widely applied in solving distributed inference problems in wireless networks. In this paper, we formulate the cooperative localization problem in a mobile network as an inference problem on a factor graph. Using a sequential schedule of message updates, a sequential uniformly reweighted sum-product algorithm (SURW-SPA) is developed for mobile localization problems. The proposed algorithm combines the distributed nature of belief propagation (BP) with the improved p...

Kinetic Modeling of Synthetic Wastewater Treatment by the Moving-bed Sequential Continuous-inflow Reactor (MSCR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammadreza Khani

2016-11-01

Full Text Available It was the objective of the present study to conduct a kinetic modeling of a Moving-bed Sequential Continuous-inflow Reactor (MSCR and to develop its best prediction model. For this purpose, a MSCR consisting of an aerobic-anoxic pilot 50 l in volume and an anaerobic pilot of 20 l were prepared. The MSCR was fed a variety of organic loads and operated at different hydraulic retention times (HRT using synthetic wastewater at input COD concentrations of 300 to 1000 mg/L with HRTs of 2 to 5 h. Based on the results and the best system operation conditions, the highest COD removal (98.6% was obtained at COD=500 mg/L. The three well-known first order, second order, and Stover-Kincannon models were utilized for the kinetic modeling of the reactor. Based on the kinetic analysis of organic removal, the Stover-Kincannon model was chosen for the kinetic modeling of the moving bed biofilm. Given its advantageous properties in the statisfactory prediction of organic removal at different organic loads, this model is recommended for the design and operation of MSCR systems.

Sequential Generalized Transforms on Function Space

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae Gil Choi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We define two sequential transforms on a function space Ca,b[0,T] induced by generalized Brownian motion process. We then establish the existence of the sequential transforms for functionals in a Banach algebra of functionals on Ca,b[0,T]. We also establish that any one of these transforms acts like an inverse transform of the other transform. Finally, we give some remarks about certain relations between our sequential transforms and other well-known transforms on Ca,b[0,T].

Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ole Riis; Paaske, Erik

1998-01-01

We describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon (RS) codes with nonuniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance is possible as low...... as Eb/N0=0.6 dB, which is about 1.25 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) that marks the cutoff rate for the full system. Accounting for about 0.45 dB due to the outer codes, sequential decoding takes place at about 1.7 dB below the SNR cutoff rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since...... the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first RS word is decoded after C computations are presented. These results are supported...

Patient specific dynamic geometric models from sequential volumetric time series image data.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, B M; Robb, R A

2004-01-01

Generating patient specific dynamic models is complicated by the complexity of the motion intrinsic and extrinsic to the anatomic structures being modeled. Using a physics-based sequentially deforming algorithm, an anatomically accurate dynamic four-dimensional model can be created from a sequence of 3-D volumetric time series data sets. While such algorithms may accurately track the cyclic non-linear motion of the heart, they generally fail to accurately track extrinsic structural and non-cyclic motion. To accurately model these motions, we have modified a physics-based deformation algorithm to use a meta-surface defining the temporal and spatial maxima of the anatomic structure as the base reference surface. A mass-spring physics-based deformable model, which can expand or shrink with the local intrinsic motion, is applied to the metasurface, deforming this base reference surface to the volumetric data at each time point. As the meta-surface encompasses the temporal maxima of the structure, any extrinsic motion is inherently encoded into the base reference surface and allows the computation of the time point surfaces to be performed in parallel. The resultant 4-D model can be interactively transformed and viewed from different angles, showing the spatial and temporal motion of the anatomic structure. Using texture maps and per-vertex coloring, additional data such as physiological and/or biomechanical variables (e.g., mapping electrical activation sequences onto contracting myocardial surfaces) can be associated with the dynamic model, producing a 5-D model. For acquisition systems that may capture only limited time series data (e.g., only images at end-diastole/end-systole or inhalation/exhalation), this algorithm can provide useful interpolated surfaces between the time points. Such models help minimize the number of time points required to usefully depict the motion of anatomic structures for quantitative assessment of regional dynamics.

Sequential probability ratio controllers for safeguards radiation monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehlau, P.E.; Coop, K.L.; Nixon, K.V.

1984-01-01

Sequential hypothesis tests applied to nuclear safeguards accounting methods make the methods more sensitive to detecting diversion. The sequential tests also improve transient signal detection in safeguards radiation monitors. This paper describes three microprocessor control units with sequential probability-ratio tests for detecting transient increases in radiation intensity. The control units are designed for three specific applications: low-intensity monitoring with Poisson probability ratios, higher intensity gamma-ray monitoring where fixed counting intervals are shortened by sequential testing, and monitoring moving traffic where the sequential technique responds to variable-duration signals. The fixed-interval controller shortens a customary 50-s monitoring time to an average of 18 s, making the monitoring delay less bothersome. The controller for monitoring moving vehicles benefits from the sequential technique by maintaining more than half its sensitivity when the normal passage speed doubles

On-line Flagging of Anomalies and Adaptive Sequential Hypothesis Testing for Fine-feature Characterization of Geosynchronous Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-18

model-based evidence. This work resolves cross-tag using three methods (Z-test for dependent data, classical sequential analysis and Brownian motion...Slider Movement The two-facet model is used as the Inversion Model. It represents a three-axis stabilized satellite as two facets, namely a body...the sequential analysis. If is independent and has an approximately normal distribution then Brownian motion drift analysis is used. If is

A sequential vesicle pool model with a single release sensor and a ca(2+)-dependent priming catalyst effectively explains ca(2+)-dependent properties of neurosecretion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walter, Alexander M; da Silva Pinheiro, Paulo César; Verhage, Matthijs

2013-01-01

identified. We here propose a Sequential Pool Model (SPM), assuming a novel Ca(2+)-dependent action: a Ca(2+)-dependent catalyst that accelerates both forward and reverse priming reactions. While both models account for fast fusion from the Readily-Releasable Pool (RRP) under control of synaptotagmin-1...... the simultaneous changes in release rate and amplitude seen when mutating the SNARE-complex. Finally, it can account for the loss of fast- and the persistence of slow release in the synaptotagmin-1 knockout by assuming that the RRP is depleted, leading to slow and Ca(2+)-dependent fusion from the NRP. We conclude...... that the elusive 'alternative Ca(2+) sensor' for slow release might be the upstream priming catalyst, and that a sequential model effectively explains Ca(2+)-dependent properties of secretion without assuming parallel pools or sensors....

Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

1991-12-01

Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

Prospectivity Modeling of Karstic Groundwater Using a Sequential Exploration Approach in Tepal Area, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.

Random and cooperative sequential adsorption

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, J. W.

1993-10-01

Irreversible random sequential adsorption (RSA) on lattices, and continuum "car parking" analogues, have long received attention as models for reactions on polymer chains, chemisorption on single-crystal surfaces, adsorption in colloidal systems, and solid state transformations. Cooperative generalizations of these models (CSA) are sometimes more appropriate, and can exhibit richer kinetics and spatial structure, e.g., autocatalysis and clustering. The distribution of filled or transformed sites in RSA and CSA is not described by an equilibrium Gibbs measure. This is the case even for the saturation "jammed" state of models where the lattice or space cannot fill completely. However exact analysis is often possible in one dimension, and a variety of powerful analytic methods have been developed for higher dimensional models. Here we review the detailed understanding of asymptotic kinetics, spatial correlations, percolative structure, etc., which is emerging for these far-from-equilibrium processes.

Lineup composition, suspect position, and the sequential lineup advantage.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Curt A; Gronlund, Scott D; Clark, Steven E

2008-06-01

N. M. Steblay, J. Dysart, S. Fulero, and R. C. L. Lindsay (2001) argued that sequential lineups reduce the likelihood of mistaken eyewitness identification. Experiment 1 replicated the design of R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985), the first study to show the sequential lineup advantage. However, the innocent suspect was chosen at a lower rate in the simultaneous lineup, and no sequential lineup advantage was found. This led the authors to hypothesize that protection from a sequential lineup might emerge only when an innocent suspect stands out from the other lineup members. In Experiment 2, participants viewed a simultaneous or sequential lineup with either the guilty suspect or 1 of 3 innocent suspects. Lineup fairness was varied to influence the degree to which a suspect stood out. A sequential lineup advantage was found only for the unfair lineups. Additional analyses of suspect position in the sequential lineups showed an increase in the diagnosticity of suspect identifications as the suspect was placed later in the sequential lineup. These results suggest that the sequential lineup advantage is dependent on lineup composition and suspect position. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Mean-Variance-Validation Technique for Sequential Kriging Metamodels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Tae Hee; Kim, Ho Sung

2010-01-01

The rigorous validation of the accuracy of metamodels is an important topic in research on metamodel techniques. Although a leave-k-out cross-validation technique involves a considerably high computational cost, it cannot be used to measure the fidelity of metamodels. Recently, the mean 0 validation technique has been proposed to quantitatively determine the accuracy of metamodels. However, the use of mean 0 validation criterion may lead to premature termination of a sampling process even if the kriging model is inaccurate. In this study, we propose a new validation technique based on the mean and variance of the response evaluated when sequential sampling method, such as maximum entropy sampling, is used. The proposed validation technique is more efficient and accurate than the leave-k-out cross-validation technique, because instead of performing numerical integration, the kriging model is explicitly integrated to accurately evaluate the mean and variance of the response evaluated. The error in the proposed validation technique resembles a root mean squared error, thus it can be used to determine a stop criterion for sequential sampling of metamodels

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

Tradable permit allocations and sequential choice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacKenzie, Ian A. [Centre for Economic Research, ETH Zuerich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zuerich (Switzerland)

2011-01-15

This paper investigates initial allocation choices in an international tradable pollution permit market. For two sovereign governments, we compare allocation choices that are either simultaneously or sequentially announced. We show sequential allocation announcements result in higher (lower) aggregate emissions when announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). Whether allocation announcements are strategic substitutes or complements depends on the relationship between the follower's damage function and governments' abatement costs. When the marginal damage function is relatively steep (flat), allocation announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). For quadratic abatement costs and damages, sequential announcements provide a higher level of aggregate emissions. (author)

Sequential bargaining in a market with one seller and two different buyers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tranæs, Torben; Hendon, Ebbe

1991-01-01

A matching and bargaining model in a market with one seller and two buyers, differing only in their reservation price, is analyzed. No subgame perfect equilibrium exists for stationary strategies. We demonstrate the existence of inefficient equilibria in which the low buyer receives the good with...... with large probability, even as friction becomes negligible. We investigate the relationship between the use of Nash and sequential bargaining. Nash bargaining seems applicable only when the sequential approach yields a unique stationary strategy subgame perfect equilibrium...

Sequential bargaining in a market with one seller and two different buyers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendon, Ebbe; Tranæs, Torben

1991-01-01

A matching and bargaining model in a market with one seller and two buyers, differing only in their reservation price, is analyzed. No subgame perfect equilibrium exists for stationary strategies. We demonstrate the existence of inefficient equilibria in which the low buyer receives the good with...... with large probability, even as friction becomes negligible. We investigate the relationship between the use of Nash and sequential bargaining. Nash bargaining seems applicable only when the sequential approach yields a unique stationary strategy subgame perfect equilibrium....

Applying the minimax principle to sequential mastery testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory (minimum

Collaborative Filtering Based on Sequential Extraction of User-Item Clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Honda, Katsuhiro; Notsu, Akira; Ichihashi, Hidetomo

Collaborative filtering is a computational realization of “word-of-mouth” in network community, in which the items prefered by “neighbors” are recommended. This paper proposes a new item-selection model for extracting user-item clusters from rectangular relation matrices, in which mutual relations between users and items are denoted in an alternative process of “liking or not”. A technique for sequential co-cluster extraction from rectangular relational data is given by combining the structural balancing-based user-item clustering method with sequential fuzzy cluster extraction appraoch. Then, the tecunique is applied to the collaborative filtering problem, in which some items may be shared by several user clusters.

Classical and sequential limit analysis revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Leblond, Jean-Baptiste; Kondo, Djimédo; Morin, Léo; Remmal, Almahdi

2018-04-01

Classical limit analysis applies to ideal plastic materials, and within a linearized geometrical framework implying small displacements and strains. Sequential limit analysis was proposed as a heuristic extension to materials exhibiting strain hardening, and within a fully general geometrical framework involving large displacements and strains. The purpose of this paper is to study and clearly state the precise conditions permitting such an extension. This is done by comparing the evolution equations of the full elastic-plastic problem, the equations of classical limit analysis, and those of sequential limit analysis. The main conclusion is that, whereas classical limit analysis applies to materials exhibiting elasticity - in the absence of hardening and within a linearized geometrical framework -, sequential limit analysis, to be applicable, strictly prohibits the presence of elasticity - although it tolerates strain hardening and large displacements and strains. For a given mechanical situation, the relevance of sequential limit analysis therefore essentially depends upon the importance of the elastic-plastic coupling in the specific case considered.

Sequential decisions: a computational comparison of observational and reinforcement accounts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazanin Mohammadi Sepahvand

Full Text Available Right brain damaged patients show impairments in sequential decision making tasks for which healthy people do not show any difficulty. We hypothesized that this difficulty could be due to the failure of right brain damage patients to develop well-matched models of the world. Our motivation is the idea that to navigate uncertainty, humans use models of the world to direct the decisions they make when interacting with their environment. The better the model is, the better their decisions are. To explore the model building and updating process in humans and the basis for impairment after brain injury, we used a computational model of non-stationary sequence learning. RELPH (Reinforcement and Entropy Learned Pruned Hypothesis space was able to qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce the results of left and right brain damaged patient groups and healthy controls playing a sequential version of Rock, Paper, Scissors. Our results suggests that, in general, humans employ a sub-optimal reinforcement based learning method rather than an objectively better statistical learning approach, and that differences between right brain damaged and healthy control groups can be explained by different exploration policies, rather than qualitatively different learning mechanisms.

Classification rates: non‐parametric verses parametric models using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This research sought to establish if non parametric modeling achieves a higher correct classification ratio than a parametric model. The local likelihood technique was used to model fit the data sets. The same sets of data were modeled using parametric logit and the abilities of the two models to correctly predict the binary ...

Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuan Ding

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

Simultaneous versus sequential penetrating keratoplasty and cataract surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayashi, Ken; Hayashi, Hideyuki

2006-10-01

To compare the surgical outcomes of simultaneous penetrating keratoplasty and cataract surgery with those of sequential surgery. Thirty-nine eyes of 39 patients scheduled for simultaneous keratoplasty and cataract surgery and 23 eyes of 23 patients scheduled for sequential keratoplasty and secondary phacoemulsification surgery were recruited. Refractive error, regular and irregular corneal astigmatism determined by Fourier analysis, and endothelial cell loss were studied at 1 week and 3, 6, and 12 months after combined surgery in the simultaneous surgery group or after subsequent phacoemulsification surgery in the sequential surgery group. At 3 and more months after surgery, mean refractive error was significantly greater in the simultaneous surgery group than in the sequential surgery group, although no difference was seen at 1 week. The refractive error at 12 months was within 2 D of that targeted in 15 eyes (39%) in the simultaneous surgery group and within 2 D in 16 eyes (70%) in the sequential surgery group; the incidence was significantly greater in the sequential group (P = 0.0344). The regular and irregular astigmatism was not significantly different between the groups at 3 and more months after surgery. No significant difference was also found in the percentage of endothelial cell loss between the groups. Although corneal astigmatism and endothelial cell loss were not different, refractive error from target refraction was greater after simultaneous keratoplasty and cataract surgery than after sequential surgery, indicating a better outcome after sequential surgery than after simultaneous surgery.

Reliability assessment of restructured power systems using reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Yi; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit; Billinton, Roy; Karki, Rajesh

2007-01-01

This paper presents a technique to evaluate reliability of a restructured power system with a bilateral market. The proposed technique is based on the combination of the reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation approaches. The reliability network equivalent techniques have been implemented in the Monte Carlo simulation procedure to reduce the computational burden of the analysis. Pseudo-sequential simulation has been used to increase the computational efficiency of the non-sequential simulation method and to model the chronological aspects of market trading and system operation. Multi-state Markov models for generation and transmission systems are proposed and implemented in the simulation. A new load shedding scheme is proposed during generation inadequacy and network congestion to minimize the load curtailment. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is used to illustrate the technique. (author)

Modeling two-phase ferroelectric composites by sequential laminates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Idiart, Martín I

2014-01-01

Theoretical estimates are given for the overall dissipative response of two-phase ferroelectric composites with complex particulate microstructures under arbitrary loading histories. The ferroelectric behavior of the constituent phases is described via a stored energy density and a dissipation potential in accordance with the theory of generalized standard materials. An implicit time-discretization scheme is used to generate a variational representation of the overall response in terms of a single incremental potential. Estimates are then generated by constructing sequentially laminated microgeometries of particulate type whose overall incremental potential can be computed exactly. Because they are realizable, by construction, these estimates are guaranteed to conform with any material constraints, to satisfy all pertinent bounds and to exhibit the required convexity properties with no duality gap. Predictions for representative composite and porous systems are reported and discussed in the light of existing experimental data. (paper)

Trial Sequential Methods for Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kulinskaya, Elena; Wood, John

2014-01-01

Statistical methods for sequential meta-analysis have applications also for the design of new trials. Existing methods are based on group sequential methods developed for single trials and start with the calculation of a required information size. This works satisfactorily within the framework of fixed effects meta-analysis, but conceptual…

Sequentially pulsed traveling wave accelerator

Science.gov (United States)

Caporaso, George J [Livermore, CA; Nelson, Scott D [Patterson, CA; Poole, Brian R [Tracy, CA

2009-08-18

A sequentially pulsed traveling wave compact accelerator having two or more pulse forming lines each with a switch for producing a short acceleration pulse along a short length of a beam tube, and a trigger mechanism for sequentially triggering the switches so that a traveling axial electric field is produced along the beam tube in synchronism with an axially traversing pulsed beam of charged particles to serially impart energy to the particle beam.

[Optimization and Prognosis of Cell Radiosensitivity Enhancement in vitro and in vivo after Sequential Thermoradiactive Action].

Science.gov (United States)

Belkina, S V; Petin, V G

2016-01-01

Previously developed mathematical model of simultaneous action of two inactivating agents has been adapted and tested to describe the results of sequential action. The possibility of applying the mathematical model to the interpretation and prognosis of the increase in radio-sensitivity of tumor cells as well as mammalian cells after sequential action of two high temperatures or hyperthermia and ionizing radiation is analyzed. The model predicts the value of the thermal enhancement ratio depending on the duration of thermal exposure, its greatest value, and the condition under which it is achieved.

Indications of de Sitter spacetime from classical sequential growth dynamics of causal sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, Maqbool; Rideout, David

2010-01-01

A large class of the dynamical laws for causal sets described by a classical process of sequential growth yields a cyclic universe, whose cycles of expansion and contraction are punctuated by single 'origin elements' of the causal set. We present evidence that the effective dynamics of the immediate future of one of these origin elements, within the context of the sequential growth dynamics, yields an initial period of de Sitter-like exponential expansion, and argue that the resulting picture has many attractive features as a model of the early universe, with the potential to solve some of the standard model puzzles without any fine-tuning.

Fully vs. Sequentially Coupled Loads Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Damiani, Rick; Wendt, Fabian; Musial, Walter; Finucane, Z.; Hulliger, L.; Chilka, S.; Dolan, D.; Cushing, J.; O' Connell, D.; Falk, S.

2017-06-19

The design and analysis methods for offshore wind turbines must consider the aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads and response of the entire system (turbine, tower, substructure, and foundation) coupled to the turbine control system dynamics. Whereas a fully coupled (turbine and support structure) modeling approach is more rigorous, intellectual property concerns can preclude this approach. In fact, turbine control system algorithms and turbine properties are strictly guarded and often not shared. In many cases, a partially coupled analysis using separate tools and an exchange of reduced sets of data via sequential coupling may be necessary. In the sequentially coupled approach, the turbine and substructure designers will independently determine and exchange an abridged model of their respective subsystems to be used in their partners' dynamic simulations. Although the ability to achieve design optimization is sacrificed to some degree with a sequentially coupled analysis method, the central question here is whether this approach can deliver the required safety and how the differences in the results from the fully coupled method could affect the design. This work summarizes the scope and preliminary results of a study conducted for the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement aimed at quantifying differences between these approaches through aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations of two offshore wind turbines on a monopile and jacket substructure.

Bursts and heavy tails in temporal and sequential dynamics of foraging decisions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanghoon Jung

2014-08-01

Full Text Available A fundamental understanding of behavior requires predicting when and what an individual will choose. However, the actual temporal and sequential dynamics of successive choices made among multiple alternatives remain unclear. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that there is a general bursting property in both the timing and sequential patterns of foraging decisions. We conducted a foraging experiment in which rats chose among four different foods over a continuous two-week time period. Regarding when choices were made, we found bursts of rapidly occurring actions, separated by time-varying inactive periods, partially based on a circadian rhythm. Regarding what was chosen, we found sequential dynamics in affective choices characterized by two key features: (a a highly biased choice distribution; and (b preferential attachment, in which the animals were more likely to choose what they had previously chosen. To capture the temporal dynamics, we propose a dual-state model consisting of active and inactive states. We also introduce a satiation-attainment process for bursty activity, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process for longer inactivity between bursts. For the sequential dynamics, we propose a dual-control model consisting of goal-directed and habit systems, based on outcome valuation and choice history, respectively. This study provides insights into how the bursty nature of behavior emerges from the interaction of different underlying systems, leading to heavy tails in the distribution of behavior over time and choices.

Bursts and Heavy Tails in Temporal and Sequential Dynamics of Foraging Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kanghoon; Jang, Hyeran; Kralik, Jerald D.; Jeong, Jaeseung

2014-01-01

A fundamental understanding of behavior requires predicting when and what an individual will choose. However, the actual temporal and sequential dynamics of successive choices made among multiple alternatives remain unclear. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that there is a general bursting property in both the timing and sequential patterns of foraging decisions. We conducted a foraging experiment in which rats chose among four different foods over a continuous two-week time period. Regarding when choices were made, we found bursts of rapidly occurring actions, separated by time-varying inactive periods, partially based on a circadian rhythm. Regarding what was chosen, we found sequential dynamics in affective choices characterized by two key features: (a) a highly biased choice distribution; and (b) preferential attachment, in which the animals were more likely to choose what they had previously chosen. To capture the temporal dynamics, we propose a dual-state model consisting of active and inactive states. We also introduce a satiation-attainment process for bursty activity, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process for longer inactivity between bursts. For the sequential dynamics, we propose a dual-control model consisting of goal-directed and habit systems, based on outcome valuation and choice history, respectively. This study provides insights into how the bursty nature of behavior emerges from the interaction of different underlying systems, leading to heavy tails in the distribution of behavior over time and choices. PMID:25122498

Limit Theory for Panel Data Models with Cross Sectional Dependence and Sequential Exogeneity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuersteiner, Guido M; Prucha, Ingmar R

2013-06-01

The paper derives a general Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and asymptotic distributions for sample moments related to panel data models with large n . The results allow for the data to be cross sectionally dependent, while at the same time allowing the regressors to be only sequentially rather than strictly exogenous. The setup is sufficiently general to accommodate situations where cross sectional dependence stems from spatial interactions and/or from the presence of common factors. The latter leads to the need for random norming. The limit theorem for sample moments is derived by showing that the moment conditions can be recast such that a martingale difference array central limit theorem can be applied. We prove such a central limit theorem by first extending results for stable convergence in Hall and Hedye (1980) to non-nested martingale arrays relevant for our applications. We illustrate our result by establishing a generalized estimation theory for GMM estimators of a fixed effect panel model without imposing i.i.d. or strict exogeneity conditions. We also discuss a class of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators that can be analyzed using our CLT.

Sequential Monte Carlo with Highly Informative Observations

OpenAIRE

Del Moral, Pierre; Murray, Lawrence M.

2014-01-01

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is simulating bridges between given initial and final values. The basic idea is to introduce a schedule of intermediate weighting and resampling times between observation times, which guide particles towards the final state. This can always be done for continuous-...

An Efficient System Based On Closed Sequential Patterns for Web Recommendations

OpenAIRE

Utpala Niranjan; R.B.V. Subramanyam; V-Khana

2010-01-01

Sequential pattern mining, since its introduction has received considerable attention among the researchers with broad applications. The sequential pattern algorithms generally face problems when mining long sequential patterns or while using very low support threshold. One possible solution of such problems is by mining the closed sequential patterns, which is a condensed representation of sequential patterns. Recently, several researchers have utilized the sequential pattern discovery for d...

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

Science.gov (United States)

Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

2014-03-18

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

OpenAIRE

Shiyi Zhou; Shu Da; Heng Guo; Xichao Zhang

2018-01-01

After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relat...

Monitoring sequential electron transfer with EPR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thurnauer, M.C.; Feezel, L.L.; Snyder, S.W.; Tang, J.; Norris, J.R.; Morris, A.L.; Rustandi, R.R.

1989-01-01

A completely general model which treats electron spin polarization (ESP) found in a system in which radical pairs with different magnetic interactions are formed sequentially has been described. This treatment has been applied specifically to the ESP found in the bacterial reaction center. Test cases show clearly how parameters such as structure, lifetime, and magnetic interactions within the successive radical pairs affect the ESP, and demonstrate that previous treatments of this problem have been incomplete. The photosynthetic bacterial reaction center protein is an ideal system for testing the general model of ESP. The radical pair which exhibits ESP, P 870 + Q - (P 870 + is the oxidized, primary electron donor, a bacteriochlorophyll special pair and Q - is the reduced, primary quinone acceptor) is formed via sequential electron transport through the intermediary radical pair P 870 + I - (I - is the reduced, intermediary electron acceptor, a bacteriopheophytin). In addition, it is possible to experimentally vary most of the important parameters, such as the lifetime of the intermediary radical pair and the magnetic interactions in each pair. It has been shown how selective isotopic substitution ( 1 H or 2 H) on P 870 , I and Q affects the ESP of the EPR spectrum of P 870 + Q - , observed at two different microwave frequencies, in Fe 2+ -depleted bacterial reaction centers of Rhodobacter sphaeroides R26. Thus, the relative magnitudes of the magnetic properties (nuclear hyperfine and g-factor differences) which influence ESP development were varied. The results support the general model of ESP in that they suggest that the P 870 + Q - radical pair interactions are the dominant source of ESP production in 2 H bacterial reaction centers

Sequential nonadiabatic excitation of large molecules and ions driven by strong laser fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markevitch, Alexei N.; Levis, Robert J.; Romanov, Dmitri A.; Smith, Stanley M.; Schlegel, H. Bernhard; Ivanov, Misha Yu.

2004-01-01

Electronic processes leading to dissociative ionization of polyatomic molecules in strong laser fields are investigated experimentally, theoretically, and numerically. Using time-of-flight ion mass spectroscopy, we study the dependence of fragmentation on laser intensity for a series of related molecules and report regular trends in this dependence on the size, symmetry, and electronic structure of a molecule. Based on these data, we develop a model of dissociative ionization of polyatomic molecules in intense laser fields. The model is built on three elements: (i) nonadiabatic population transfer from the ground electronic state to the excited-state manifold via a doorway (charge-transfer) transition; (ii) exponential enhancement of this transition by collective dynamic polarization of all electrons, and (iii) sequential energy deposition in both neutral molecules and resulting molecular ions. The sequential nonadiabatic excitation is accelerated by a counterintuitive increase of a large molecule's polarizability following its ionization. The generic theory of sequential nonadiabatic excitation forms a basis for quantitative description of various nonlinear processes in polyatomic molecules and ions in strong laser fields

A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaudry, Modassar; Wu, Jianzhong; Jenkins, Nick

2013-01-01

A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed to determine the reliability of the energy infrastructure. The model integrates the gas and electricity network into a single sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The model minimises the combined costs of the gas and electricity network, these include gas supplies, gas storage operation and electricity generation. The Monte Carlo model calculates reliability indices such as loss of load probability and expected energy unserved for the combined gas and electricity network. The intention of this tool is to facilitate reliability analysis of integrated energy systems. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study that quantifies the impact on the reliability of the GB gas and electricity network given uncertainties such as wind variability, gas supply availability and outages to energy infrastructure assets. Analysis is performed over a typical midwinter week on a hypothesised GB gas and electricity network in 2020 that meets European renewable energy targets. The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on the reliability of the energy system is assessed. The results highlight the value of greater gas storage facilities in enhancing the reliability of the GB energy system given various energy uncertainties. -- Highlights: •A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed. •Reliability indices are calculated for the combined GB gas and electricity system. •The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on reliability of the energy system is assessed. •Integrated reliability indices could be used to assess the impact of investment in energy assets

Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

KAUST Repository

Khaki, M.

2017-07-06

The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) scheme and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF), respectively improving the model groundwater estimations errors by 34% and 31% compared to a model run without assimilation. Applying the PF along with Systematic Resampling successfully decreases the model estimation error by 23%.

Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gorka Merino

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Global marine fisheries production has reached a maximum and may even be declining. Underlying this trend is a well-understood sequence of development, overexploitation, depletion and in some instances collapse of individual fish stocks, a pattern that can sequentially link geographically distant populations. Ineffective governance, economic considerations and climate impacts are often responsible for this sequence, although the relative contribution of each factor is contentious. In this paper we use a global bioeconomic model to explore the synergistic effects of climate variability, economic pressures and management measures in causing or avoiding this sequence. The model shows how a combination of climate-induced variability in the underlying fish population production, particular patterns of demand for fish products and inadequate management is capable of driving the world’s fisheries into development, overexploitation, collapse and recovery phases consistent with observations. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a sequential pattern of overexploitation can emerge as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional environmental fluctuations and a globalized trade system. This situation is avoidable through adaptive management measures that ensure the sustainability of regional production systems in the face of increasing global environmental change and markets. It is concluded that global management measures are needed to ensure that global food supply from marine products is optimized while protecting long-term ecosystem services across the world’s oceans.

Losing a dime with a satisfied mind: positive affect predicts less search in sequential decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

von Helversen, Bettina; Mata, Rui

2012-12-01

We investigated the contribution of cognitive ability and affect to age differences in sequential decision making by asking younger and older adults to shop for items in a computerized sequential decision-making task. Older adults performed poorly compared to younger adults partly due to searching too few options. An analysis of the decision process with a formal model suggested that older adults set lower thresholds for accepting an option than younger participants. Further analyses suggested that positive affect, but not fluid abilities, was related to search in the sequential decision task. A second study that manipulated affect in younger adults supported the causal role of affect: Increased positive affect lowered the initial threshold for accepting an attractive option. In sum, our results suggest that positive affect is a key factor determining search in sequential decision making. Consequently, increased positive affect in older age may contribute to poorer sequential decisions by leading to insufficient search. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

2000-01-01

The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

Double tracer autoradiographic method for sequential evaluation of regional cerebral perfusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, H.; Tsuji, S.; Oba, H.; Kinuya, K.; Terada, H.; Sumiya, H.; Shiba, K.; Mori, H.; Hisada, K.; Maeda, T.

1989-01-01

A new double tracer autoradiographic method for the sequential evaluation of altered regional cerebral perfusion in the same animal is presented. This method is based on the sequential injection of two tracers, 99m Tc-hexamethylpropyleneamine oxime and N-isopropyl-( 125 I)p-iodoamphetamine. This method is validated in the assessment of brovincamine effects on regional cerebral perfusion in an experimental model of chronic brain ischemia in the rat. The drug enhanced perfusion recovery in low-flow areas, selectively in surrounding areas of infarction. The results suggest that this technique is of potential use in the study of neuropharmacological effects applied during the experiment

Discrimination between sequential and simultaneous virtual channels with electrical hearing.

Science.gov (United States)

Landsberger, David; Galvin, John J

2011-09-01

In cochlear implants (CIs), simultaneous or sequential stimulation of adjacent electrodes can produce intermediate pitch percepts between those of the component electrodes. However, it is unclear whether simultaneous and sequential virtual channels (VCs) can be discriminated. In this study, CI users were asked to discriminate simultaneous and sequential VCs; discrimination was measured for monopolar (MP) and bipolar + 1 stimulation (BP + 1), i.e., relatively broad and focused stimulation modes. For sequential VCs, the interpulse interval (IPI) varied between 0.0 and 1.8 ms. All stimuli were presented at comfortably loud, loudness-balanced levels at a 250 pulse per second per electrode (ppse) stimulation rate. On average, CI subjects were able to reliably discriminate between sequential and simultaneous VCs. While there was no significant effect of IPI or stimulation mode on VC discrimination, some subjects exhibited better VC discrimination with BP + 1 stimulation. Subjects' discrimination between sequential and simultaneous VCs was correlated with electrode discrimination, suggesting that spatial selectivity may influence perception of sequential VCs. To maintain equal loudness, sequential VC amplitudes were nearly double those of simultaneous VCs, presumably resulting in a broader spread of excitation. These results suggest that perceptual differences between simultaneous and sequential VCs might be explained by differences in the spread of excitation. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Sequential versus simultaneous market delineation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Møllgaard, Peter; Kastberg Nielsen, Claus

2005-01-01

and geographical markets. Using a unique data setfor prices of Norwegian and Scottish salmon, we propose a methodologyfor simultaneous market delineation and we demonstrate that comparedto a sequential approach conclusions will be reversed.JEL: C3, K21, L41, Q22Keywords: Relevant market, econometric delineation......Delineation of the relevant market forms a pivotal part of most antitrustcases. The standard approach is sequential. First the product marketis delineated, then the geographical market is defined. Demand andsupply substitution in both the product dimension and the geographicaldimension...

Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1995-12-01

This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

Sequential assimilation of multi-mission dynamical topography into a global finite-element ocean model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Skachko

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on an accurate estimation of ocean circulation via assimilation of satellite measurements of ocean dynamical topography into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM. The dynamical topography data are derived from a complex analysis of multi-mission altimetry data combined with a referenced earth geoid. The assimilation is split into two parts. First, the mean dynamic topography is adjusted. To this end an adiabatic pressure correction method is used which reduces model divergence from the real evolution. Second, a sequential assimilation technique is applied to improve the representation of thermodynamical processes by assimilating the time varying dynamic topography. A method is used according to which the temperature and salinity are updated following the vertical structure of the first baroclinic mode. It is shown that the method leads to a partially successful assimilation approach reducing the rms difference between the model and data from 16 cm to 2 cm. This improvement of the mean state is accompanied by significant improvement of temporal variability in our analysis. However, it remains suboptimal, showing a tendency in the forecast phase of returning toward a free run without data assimilation. Both the mean difference and standard deviation of the difference between the forecast and observation data are reduced as the result of assimilation.

Group-sequential analysis may allow for early trial termination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerke, Oke; Vilstrup, Mie H; Halekoh, Ulrich

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG-PET/CT mea......BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG...

Impact of sequential disorder on the scaling behavior of airplane boarding time

Science.gov (United States)

Baek, Yongjoo; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-05-01

Airplane boarding process is an example where disorder properties of the system are relevant to the emergence of universality classes. Based on a simple model, we present a systematic analysis of finite-size effects in boarding time, and propose a comprehensive view of the role of sequential disorder in the scaling behavior of boarding time against the plane size. Using numerical simulations and mathematical arguments, we find how the scaling behavior depends on the number of seat columns and the range of sequential disorder. Our results show that new scaling exponents can arise as disorder is localized to varying extents.

Monte Carlo Tree Search for Continuous and Stochastic Sequential Decision Making Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Couetoux, Adrien

2013-01-01

In this thesis, I studied sequential decision making problems, with a focus on the unit commitment problem. Traditionally solved by dynamic programming methods, this problem is still a challenge, due to its high dimension and to the sacrifices made on the accuracy of the model to apply state of the art methods. I investigated on the applicability of Monte Carlo Tree Search methods for this problem, and other problems that are single player, stochastic and continuous sequential decision making problems. In doing so, I obtained a consistent and anytime algorithm, that can easily be combined with existing strong heuristic solvers. (author)

Sequential logic analysis and synthesis

CERN Document Server

Cavanagh, Joseph

2007-01-01

Until now, there was no single resource for actual digital system design. Using both basic and advanced concepts, Sequential Logic: Analysis and Synthesis offers a thorough exposition of the analysis and synthesis of both synchronous and asynchronous sequential machines. With 25 years of experience in designing computing equipment, the author stresses the practical design of state machines. He clearly delineates each step of the structured and rigorous design principles that can be applied to practical applications. The book begins by reviewing the analysis of combinatorial logic and Boolean a

Sequential method for the assessment of innovations in computer assisted industrial processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suarez Antola R.

1995-01-01

A sequential method for the assessment of innovations in industrial processes is proposed, using suitable combinations of mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of dynamics. Some advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed. tabs

Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions

Science.gov (United States)

Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han

This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.

UPTRANS: an incremental transport model with feedback for quick-response strategy evaluation

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Venter, C

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the development of a prototype transport model to be used for high-level evaluation of a potentially large number of alternative land use-transport scenarios. It uses advanced logit modelling to capture travel behaviour change...

How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

2017-11-01

Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Structural Consistency, Consistency, and Sequential Rationality.

OpenAIRE

Kreps, David M; Ramey, Garey

1987-01-01

Sequential equilibria comprise consistent beliefs and a sequentially ra tional strategy profile. Consistent beliefs are limits of Bayes ratio nal beliefs for sequences of strategies that approach the equilibrium strategy. Beliefs are structurally consistent if they are rationaliz ed by some single conjecture concerning opponents' strategies. Consis tent beliefs are not necessarily structurally consistent, notwithstan ding a claim by Kreps and Robert Wilson (1982). Moreover, the spirit of stru...

Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

2004-01-01

Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

A sequential sampling account of response bias and speed-accuracy tradeoffs in a conflict detection task.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Humphreys, Michael; Neal, Andrew

2014-03-01

Signal Detection Theory (SDT; Green & Swets, 1966) is a popular tool for understanding decision making. However, it does not account for the time taken to make a decision, nor why response bias might change over time. Sequential sampling models provide a way of accounting for speed-accuracy trade-offs and response bias shifts. In this study, we test the validity of a sequential sampling model of conflict detection in a simulated air traffic control task by assessing whether two of its key parameters respond to experimental manipulations in a theoretically consistent way. Through experimental instructions, we manipulated participants' response bias and the relative speed or accuracy of their responses. The sequential sampling model was able to replicate the trends in the conflict responses as well as response time across all conditions. Consistent with our predictions, manipulating response bias was associated primarily with changes in the model's Criterion parameter, whereas manipulating speed-accuracy instructions was associated with changes in the Threshold parameter. The success of the model in replicating the human data suggests we can use the parameters of the model to gain an insight into the underlying response bias and speed-accuracy preferences common to dynamic decision-making tasks. © 2013 American Psychological Association

An anomaly detection and isolation scheme with instance-based learning and sequential analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, T. S.; Garcia, H. E.

2006-01-01

This paper presents an online anomaly detection and isolation (FDI) technique using an instance-based learning method combined with a sequential change detection and isolation algorithm. The proposed method uses kernel density estimation techniques to build statistical models of the given empirical data (null hypothesis). The null hypothesis is associated with the set of alternative hypotheses modeling the abnormalities of the systems. A decision procedure involves a sequential change detection and isolation algorithm. Notably, the proposed method enjoys asymptotic optimality as the applied change detection and isolation algorithm is optimal in minimizing the worst mean detection/isolation delay for a given mean time before a false alarm or a false isolation. Applicability of this methodology is illustrated with redundant sensor data set and its performance. (authors)

Systems-level modeling the effects of arsenic exposure with sequential pulsed and fluctuating patterns for tilapia and freshwater clam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, W.-Y.; Tsai, J.-W.; Ju, Y.-R.; Liao, C.-M.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this paper was to use quantitative systems-level approach employing biotic ligand model based threshold damage model to examine physiological responses of tilapia and freshwater clam to sequential pulsed and fluctuating arsenic concentrations. We tested present model and triggering mechanisms by carrying out a series of modeling experiments where we used periodic pulses and sine-wave as featured exposures. Our results indicate that changes in the dominant frequencies and pulse timing can shift the safe rate distributions for tilapia, but not for that of freshwater clam. We found that tilapia increase bioenergetic costs to maintain the acclimation during pulsed and sine-wave exposures. Our ability to predict the consequences of physiological variation under time-varying exposure patterns has also implications for optimizing species growing, cultivation strategies, and risk assessment in realistic situations. - Systems-level modeling the pulsed and fluctuating arsenic exposures.

Systems-level modeling the effects of arsenic exposure with sequential pulsed and fluctuating patterns for tilapia and freshwater clam

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, W.-Y. [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Tsai, J.-W. [Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Ecology, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan (China); Ju, Y.-R. [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Liao, C.-M., E-mail: cmliao@ntu.edu.t [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

2010-05-15

The purpose of this paper was to use quantitative systems-level approach employing biotic ligand model based threshold damage model to examine physiological responses of tilapia and freshwater clam to sequential pulsed and fluctuating arsenic concentrations. We tested present model and triggering mechanisms by carrying out a series of modeling experiments where we used periodic pulses and sine-wave as featured exposures. Our results indicate that changes in the dominant frequencies and pulse timing can shift the safe rate distributions for tilapia, but not for that of freshwater clam. We found that tilapia increase bioenergetic costs to maintain the acclimation during pulsed and sine-wave exposures. Our ability to predict the consequences of physiological variation under time-varying exposure patterns has also implications for optimizing species growing, cultivation strategies, and risk assessment in realistic situations. - Systems-level modeling the pulsed and fluctuating arsenic exposures.

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania

Immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery: advantages and disadvantages.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Ranjodh; Dohlman, Thomas H; Sun, Grace

2017-01-01

The number of cataract surgeries performed globally will continue to rise to meet the needs of an aging population. This increased demand will require healthcare systems and providers to find new surgical efficiencies while maintaining excellent surgical outcomes. Immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) has been proposed as a solution and is increasingly being performed worldwide. The purpose of this review is to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of ISBCS. When appropriate patient selection occurs and guidelines are followed, ISBCS is comparable with delayed sequential bilateral cataract surgery in long-term patient satisfaction, visual acuity and complication rates. In addition, the risk of bilateral postoperative endophthalmitis and concerns of poorer refractive outcomes have not been supported by the literature. ISBCS is cost-effective for the patient, healthcare payors and society, but current reimbursement models in many countries create significant financial barriers for facilities and surgeons. As demand for cataract surgery rises worldwide, ISBCS will become increasingly important as an alternative to delayed sequential bilateral cataract surgery. Advantages include potentially decreased wait times for surgery, patient convenience and cost savings for healthcare payors. Although they are comparable in visual acuity and complication rates, hurdles that prevent wide adoption include liability concerns as ISBCS is not an established standard of care, economic constraints for facilities and surgeons and inability to fine-tune intraocular lens selection in the second eye. Given these considerations, an open discussion regarding the advantages and disadvantages of ISBCS is important for appropriate patient selection.

Effects of a combined parent-student alcohol prevention program on intermediate factors and adolescents' drinking behavior: A sequential mediation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Koning, Ina M; Maric, Marija; MacKinnon, David; Vollebergh, Wilma A M

2015-08-01

Previous work revealed that the combined parent-student alcohol prevention program (PAS) effectively postponed alcohol initiation through its hypothesized intermediate factors: increase in strict parental rule setting and adolescents' self-control (Koning, van den Eijnden, Verdurmen, Engels, & Vollebergh, 2011). This study examines whether the parental strictness precedes an increase in adolescents' self-control by testing a sequential mediation model. A cluster randomized trial including 3,245 Dutch early adolescents (M age = 12.68, SD = 0.50) and their parents randomized over 4 conditions: (1) parent intervention, (2) student intervention, (3) combined intervention, and (4) control group. Outcome measure was amount of weekly drinking measured at age 12 to 15; baseline assessment (T0) and 3 follow-up assessments (T1-T3). Main effects of the combined and parent intervention on weekly drinking at T3 were found. The effect of the combined intervention on weekly drinking (T3) was mediated via an increase in strict rule setting (T1) and adolescents' subsequent self-control (T2). In addition, the indirect effect of the combined intervention via rule setting (T1) was significant. No reciprocal sequential mediation (self-control at T1 prior to rules at T2) was found. The current study is 1 of the few studies reporting sequential mediation effects of youth intervention outcomes. It underscores the need of involving parents in youth alcohol prevention programs, and the need to target both parents and adolescents, so that change in parents' behavior enables change in their offspring. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Sequential analysis in neonatal research-systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lava, Sebastiano A G; Elie, Valéry; Ha, Phuong Thi Viet; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

2018-05-01

As more new drugs are discovered, traditional designs come at their limits. Ten years after the adoption of the European Paediatric Regulation, we performed a systematic review on the US National Library of Medicine and Excerpta Medica database of sequential trials involving newborns. Out of 326 identified scientific reports, 21 trials were included. They enrolled 2832 patients, of whom 2099 were analyzed: the median number of neonates included per trial was 48 (IQR 22-87), median gestational age was 28.7 (IQR 27.9-30.9) weeks. Eighteen trials used sequential techniques to determine sample size, while 3 used continual reassessment methods for dose-finding. In 16 studies reporting sufficient data, the sequential design allowed to non-significantly reduce the number of enrolled neonates by a median of 24 (31%) patients (IQR - 4.75 to 136.5, p = 0.0674) with respect to a traditional trial. When the number of neonates finally included in the analysis was considered, the difference became significant: 35 (57%) patients (IQR 10 to 136.5, p = 0.0033). Sequential trial designs have not been frequently used in Neonatology. They might potentially be able to reduce the number of patients in drug trials, although this is not always the case. What is known: • In evaluating rare diseases in fragile populations, traditional designs come at their limits. About 20% of pediatric trials are discontinued, mainly because of recruitment problems. What is new: • Sequential trials involving newborns were infrequently used and only a few (n = 21) are available for analysis. • The sequential design allowed to non-significantly reduce the number of enrolled neonates by a median of 24 (31%) patients (IQR - 4.75 to 136.5, p = 0.0674).

SU-D-204-05: Fitting Four NTCP Models to Treatment Outcome Data of Salivary Glands Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M; Green, R; Das, S; Marks, L; Chera, B [University North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Amdur, R; Mendenhall, W [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Sheets, N [University of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four popular NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of salivary glands to the severity of patient reported dry mouth 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the glands, which best correlate with the manifestation of those clinical endpoints. Finally, to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the NTCP models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multiinstitutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data of the parotid and submandibular glands (SMG) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patients data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the contralateral parotid for Grade ≥ 2 (0.762 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.753 for the RL). For the salivary glands the AUC values were: 0.725 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.721 for the RL. For the contralateral SMG the AUC values were: 0.721 for LKB, 0.714 for Logit and 0.712 for RS and RL. The Odds Ratio for the contralateral parotid was 5.8 (1.3–25.5) for all the four NTCP models for the radiobiological dose threshold of 21Gy. Conclusion: It was shown that all the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data well with very similar accuracy. The contralateral parotid gland appears to correlated best with the clinical endpoints of severe/very severe dry mouth. An EQD2Gy dose of 21Gy appears to be a safe threshold to be used as a constraint in treatment planning.

Group-sequential analysis may allow for early trial termination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerke, Oke; Vilstrup, Mie H; Halekoh, Ulrich

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG-PET/CT mea......BACKGROUND: Group-sequential testing is widely used in pivotal therapeutic, but rarely in diagnostic research, although it may save studies, time, and costs. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a group-sequential analysis strategy in an intra-observer study on quantitative FDG...... assumed to be normally distributed, and sequential one-sided hypothesis tests on the population standard deviation of the differences against a hypothesised value of 1.5 were performed, employing an alpha spending function. The fixed-sample analysis (N = 45) was compared with the group-sequential analysis...... strategies comprising one (at N = 23), two (at N = 15, 30), or three interim analyses (at N = 11, 23, 34), respectively, which were defined post hoc. RESULTS: When performing interim analyses with one third and two thirds of patients, sufficient agreement could be concluded after the first interim analysis...

Comparison of ablation centration after bilateral sequential versus simultaneous LASIK.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jane-Ming; Tsai, Yi-Yu

2005-01-01

To compare ablation centration after bilateral sequential and simultaneous myopic LASIK. A retrospective randomized case series was performed of 670 eyes of 335 consecutive patients who had undergone either bilateral sequential (group 1) or simultaneous (group 2) myopic LASIK between July 2000 and July 2001 at the China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan. The ablation centrations of the first and second eyes in the two groups were compared 3 months postoperatively. Of 670 eyes, 274 eyes (137 patients) comprised the sequential group and 396 eyes (198 patients) comprised the simultaneous group. Three months post-operatively, 220 eyes of 110 patients (80%) in the sequential group and 236 eyes of 118 patients (60%) in the simultaneous group provided topographic data for centration analysis. For the first eyes, mean decentration was 0.39 +/- 0.26 mm in the sequential group and 0.41 +/- 0.19 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .30). For the second eyes, mean decentration was 0.28 +/- 0.23 mm in the sequential group and 0.30 +/- 0.21 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .36). Decentration in the second eyes significantly improved in both groups (group 1, P = .02; group 2, P sequential group and 0.32 +/- 0.18 mm in the simultaneous group (P = .33). The difference of ablation center angles between the first and second eyes was 43.2 sequential group and 45.1 +/- 50.8 degrees in the simultaneous group (P = .42). Simultaneous bilateral LASIK is comparable to sequential surgery in ablation centration.

Access to and Competition Between Airports: A Case Study for the San Francisco Bay Area

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pels, E.; Nijkamp, P.; Rietveld, P.

2003-01-01

In this paper (nested) logit models that describe the combined access mode-airport-choice are estimated. A three level nested logit model is rejected. A two level nested logit model with the airport choice at the top level and the access mode choice at the lower level is preferred. From the

A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

2013-01-01

Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential

Microstructure history effect during sequential thermomechanical processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yassar, Reza S.; Murphy, John; Burton, Christina; Horstemeyer, Mark F.; El kadiri, Haitham; Shokuhfar, Tolou

2008-01-01

The key to modeling the material processing behavior is the linking of the microstructure evolution to its processing history. This paper quantifies various microstructural features of an aluminum automotive alloy that undergoes sequential thermomechanical processing which is comprised hot rolling of a 150-mm billet to a 75-mm billet, rolling to 3 mm, annealing, and then cold rolling to a 0.8-mm thickness sheet. The microstructural content was characterized by means of electron backscatter diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. The results clearly demonstrate the evolution of precipitate morphologies, dislocation structures, and grain orientation distributions. These data can be used to improve material models that claim to capture the history effects of the processing materials

A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

2007-01-01

Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

Sequential lineups: shift in criterion or decision strategy?

Science.gov (United States)

Gronlund, Scott D

2004-04-01

R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985) argued that a sequential lineup enhanced discriminability because it elicited use of an absolute decision strategy. E. B. Ebbesen and H. D. Flowe (2002) argued that a sequential lineup led witnesses to adopt a more conservative response criterion, thereby affecting bias, not discriminability. Height was encoded as absolute (e.g., 6 ft [1.83 m] tall) or relative (e.g., taller than). If a sequential lineup elicited an absolute decision strategy, the principle of transfer-appropriate processing predicted that performance should be best when height was encoded absolutely. Conversely, if a simultaneous lineup elicited a relative decision strategy, performance should be best when height was encoded relatively. The predicted interaction was observed, providing direct evidence for the decision strategies explanation of what happens when witnesses view a sequential lineup.

Effects of neostriatal 6-OHDA lesion on performance in a rat sequential reaction time task.

Science.gov (United States)

Domenger, D; Schwarting, R K W

2008-10-31

Work in humans and monkeys has provided evidence that the basal ganglia, and the neurotransmitter dopamine therein, play an important role for sequential learning and performance. Compared to primates, experimental work in rodents is rather sparse, largely due to the fact that tasks comparable to the human ones, especially serial reaction time tasks (SRTT), had been lacking until recently. We have developed a rat model of the SRTT, which allows to study neural correlates of sequential performance and motor sequence execution. Here, we report the effects of dopaminergic neostriatal lesions, performed using bilateral 6-hydroxydopamine injections, on performance of well-trained rats tested in our SRTT. Sequential behavior was measured in two ways: for one, the effects of small violations of otherwise well trained sequences were examined as a measure of attention and automation. Secondly, sequential versus random performance was compared as a measure of sequential learning. Neurochemically, the lesions led to sub-total dopamine depletions in the neostriatum, which ranged around 60% in the lateral, and around 40% in the medial neostriatum. These lesions led to a general instrumental impairment in terms of reduced speed (response latencies) and response rate, and these deficits were correlated with the degree of striatal dopamine loss. Furthermore, the violation test indicated that the lesion group conducted less automated responses. The comparison of random versus sequential responding showed that the lesion group did not retain its superior sequential performance in terms of speed, whereas they did in terms of accuracy. Also, rats with lesions did not improve further in overall performance as compared to pre-lesion values, whereas controls did. These results support previous results that neostriatal dopamine is involved in instrumental behaviour in general. Also, these lesions are not sufficient to completely abolish sequential performance, at least when acquired

How to Read the Tractatus Sequentially

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Kraft

2016-11-01

Full Text Available One of the unconventional features of Wittgenstein’s Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus is its use of an elaborated and detailed numbering system. Recently, Bazzocchi, Hacker und Kuusela have argued that the numbering system means that the Tractatus must be read and interpreted not as a sequentially ordered book, but as a text with a two-dimensional, tree-like structure. Apart from being able to explain how the Tractatus was composed, the tree reading allegedly solves exegetical issues both on the local (e. g. how 4.02 fits into the series of remarks surrounding it and the global level (e. g. relation between ontology and picture theory, solipsism and the eye analogy, resolute and irresolute readings. This paper defends the sequential reading against the tree reading. After presenting the challenges generated by the numbering system and the two accounts as attempts to solve them, it is argued that Wittgenstein’s own explanation of the numbering system, anaphoric references within the Tractatus and the exegetical issues mentioned above do not favour the tree reading, but a version of the sequential reading. This reading maintains that the remarks of the Tractatus form a sequential chain: The role of the numbers is to indicate how remarks on different levels are interconnected to form a concise, surveyable and unified whole.

A minimax procedure in the context of sequential mastery testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master or a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random test item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory

Decoding restricted participation in sequential electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knaut, Andreas; Paschmann, Martin

2017-06-15

Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auction which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a fundamental electricity market model with 15-minute temporal resolution, we identify the lack of sub-hourly market coupling being the most relevant driver of restricted participation. We derive a proxy for price volatility and find that full market coupling may trigger quarter-hourly price volatility to decrease by a factor close to four.

Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G John Measey

Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

Multichannel, sequential or combined X-ray spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Florestan, J.

1979-01-01

X-ray spectrometer qualities and defects are evaluated for sequential and multichannel categories. Multichannel X-ray spectrometer has time-coherency advantage and its results could be more reproducible; on the other hand some spatial incoherency limits low percentage and traces applications, specially when backgrounds are very variable. In this last case, sequential X-ray spectrometer would find again great usefulness [fr

Memory and decision making: Effects of sequential presentation of probabilities and outcomes in risky prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Guath, Mona; Juslin, Peter

2018-06-07

The rationality of decision making under risk is of central concern in psychology and other behavioral sciences. In real-life, the information relevant to a decision often arrives sequentially or changes over time, implying nontrivial demands on memory. Yet, little is known about how this affects the ability to make rational decisions and a default assumption is rather that information about outcomes and probabilities are simultaneously available at the time of the decision. In 4 experiments, we show that participants receiving probability- and outcome information sequentially report substantially (29 to 83%) higher certainty equivalents than participants with simultaneous presentation. This holds also for monetary-incentivized participants with perfect recall of the information. Participants in the sequential conditions often violate stochastic dominance in the sense that they pay more for a lottery with low probability of an outcome than participants in the simultaneous condition pay for a high probability of the same outcome. Computational modeling demonstrates that Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) fails to account for the effects of sequential presentation, but a model assuming anchoring-and adjustment constrained by memory can account for the data. By implication, established assumptions of rationality may need to be reconsidered to account for the effects of memory in many real-life tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Group sequential designs for stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Grayling, Michael J; Wason, James Ms; Mander, Adrian P

2017-10-01

The stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design has received substantial attention in recent years. Although various extensions to the original design have been proposed, no guidance is available on the design of stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials with interim analyses. In an individually randomised trial setting, group sequential methods can provide notable efficiency gains and ethical benefits. We address this by discussing how established group sequential methodology can be adapted for stepped-wedge designs. Utilising the error spending approach to group sequential trial design, we detail the assumptions required for the determination of stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials with interim analyses. We consider early stopping for efficacy, futility, or efficacy and futility. We describe first how this can be done for any specified linear mixed model for data analysis. We then focus on one particular commonly utilised model and, using a recently completed stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, compare the performance of several designs with interim analyses to the classical stepped-wedge design. Finally, the performance of a quantile substitution procedure for dealing with the case of unknown variance is explored. We demonstrate that the incorporation of early stopping in stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial designs could reduce the expected sample size under the null and alternative hypotheses by up to 31% and 22%, respectively, with no cost to the trial's type-I and type-II error rates. The use of restricted error maximum likelihood estimation was found to be more important than quantile substitution for controlling the type-I error rate. The addition of interim analyses into stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials could help guard against time-consuming trials conducted on poor performing treatments and also help expedite the implementation of efficacious treatments. In future, trialists should consider incorporating early stopping of some kind into

Induction of simultaneous and sequential malolactic fermentation in durian wine.

Science.gov (United States)

Taniasuri, Fransisca; Lee, Pin-Rou; Liu, Shao-Quan

2016-08-02

This study represented for the first time the impact of malolactic fermentation (MLF) induced by Oenococcus oeni and its inoculation strategies (simultaneous vs. sequential) on the fermentation performance as well as aroma compound profile of durian wine. There was no negative impact of simultaneous inoculation of O. oeni and Saccharomyces cerevisiae on the growth and fermentation kinetics of S. cerevisiae as compared to sequential fermentation. Simultaneous MLF did not lead to an excessive increase in volatile acidity as compared to sequential MLF. The kinetic changes of organic acids (i.e. malic, lactic, succinic, acetic and α-ketoglutaric acids) varied with simultaneous and sequential MLF relative to yeast alone. MLF, regardless of inoculation mode, resulted in higher production of fermentation-derived volatiles as compared to control (alcoholic fermentation only), including esters, volatile fatty acids, and terpenes, except for higher alcohols. Most indigenous volatile sulphur compounds in durian were decreased to trace levels with little differences among the control, simultaneous and sequential MLF. Among the different wines, the wine with simultaneous MLF had higher concentrations of terpenes and acetate esters while sequential MLF had increased concentrations of medium- and long-chain ethyl esters. Relative to alcoholic fermentation only, both simultaneous and sequential MLF reduced acetaldehyde substantially with sequential MLF being more effective. These findings illustrate that MLF is an effective and novel way of modulating the volatile and aroma compound profile of durian wine. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sequential Banking.

OpenAIRE

Bizer, David S; DeMarzo, Peter M

1992-01-01

The authors study environments in which agents may borrow sequentially from more than one leader. Although debt is prioritized, additional lending imposes an externality on prior debt because, with moral hazard, the probability of repayment of prior loans decreases. Equilibrium interest rates are higher than they would be if borrowers could commit to borrow from at most one bank. Even though the loan terms are less favorable than they would be under commitment, the indebtedness of borrowers i...

Particle rejuvenation of Rao-Blackwellized sequential Monte Carlo smoothers for conditionally linear and Gaussian models

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ngoc Minh; Corff, Sylvain Le; Moulines, Éric

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothing distributions in conditionally linear and Gaussian state spaces. To reduce Monte Carlo variance of smoothers, it is typical in these models to use Rao-Blackwellization: particle approximation is used to sample sequences of hidden regimes while the Gaussian states are explicitly integrated conditional on the sequence of regimes and observations, using variants of the Kalman filter/smoother. The first successful attempt to use Rao-Blackwellization for smoothing extends the Bryson-Frazier smoother for Gaussian linear state space models using the generalized two-filter formula together with Kalman filters/smoothers. More recently, a forward-backward decomposition of smoothing distributions mimicking the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother for the regimes combined with backward Kalman updates has been introduced. This paper investigates the benefit of introducing additional rejuvenation steps in all these algorithms to sample at each time instant new regimes conditional on the forward and backward particles. This defines particle-based approximations of the smoothing distributions whose support is not restricted to the set of particles sampled in the forward or backward filter. These procedures are applied to commodity markets which are described using a two-factor model based on the spot price and a convenience yield for crude oil data.

Equivalence between quantum simultaneous games and quantum sequential games

OpenAIRE

Kobayashi, Naoki

2007-01-01

A framework for discussing relationships between different types of games is proposed. Within the framework, quantum simultaneous games, finite quantum simultaneous games, quantum sequential games, and finite quantum sequential games are defined. In addition, a notion of equivalence between two games is defined. Finally, the following three theorems are shown: (1) For any quantum simultaneous game G, there exists a quantum sequential game equivalent to G. (2) For any finite quantum simultaneo...

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chakraborty, Souvik, E-mail: csouvik41@gmail.com; Chowdhury, Rajib, E-mail: rajibfce@iitr.ac.in

2016-07-15

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover, generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.

A Comparison of Ultimate Loads from Fully and Sequentially Coupled Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wendt, Fabian F [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Damiani, Rick R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-11-14

This poster summarizes the scope and preliminary results of a study conducted for the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement aimed at quantifying differences between two modeling approaches (fully coupled and sequentially coupled) through aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations of two offshore wind turbines on a monopile and jacket substructure.

Simultaneous Versus Sequential Ptosis and Strabismus Surgery in Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Revere, Karen E; Binenbaum, Gil; Li, Jonathan; Mills, Monte D; Katowitz, William R; Katowitz, James A

The authors sought to compare the clinical outcomes of simultaneous versus sequential ptosis and strabismus surgery in children. Retrospective, single-center cohort study of children requiring both ptosis and strabismus surgery on the same eye. Simultaneous surgeries were performed during a single anesthetic event; sequential surgeries were performed at least 7 weeks apart. Outcomes were ptosis surgery success (margin reflex distance 1 ≥ 2 mm, good eyelid contour, and good eyelid crease); strabismus surgery success (ocular alignment within 10 prism diopters of orthophoria and/or improved head position); surgical complications; and reoperations. Fifty-six children were studied, 38 had simultaneous surgery and 18 sequential. Strabismus surgery was performed first in 38/38 simultaneous and 6/18 sequential cases. Mean age at first surgery was 64 months, with mean follow up 27 months. A total of 75% of children had congenital ptosis; 64% had comitant strabismus. A majority of ptosis surgeries were frontalis sling (59%) or Fasanella-Servat (30%) procedures. There were no significant differences between simultaneous and sequential groups with regards to surgical success rates, complications, or reoperations (all p > 0.28). In the first comparative study of simultaneous versus sequential ptosis and strabismus surgery, no advantage for sequential surgery was seen. Despite a theoretical risk of postoperative eyelid malposition or complications when surgeries were performed in a combined manner, the rate of such outcomes was not increased with simultaneous surgeries. Performing ptosis and strabismus surgery together appears to be clinically effective and safe, and reduces anesthesia exposure during childhood.

Sequential Exposure of Bortezomib and Vorinostat is Synergistic in Multiple Myeloma Cells

Science.gov (United States)

Nanavati, Charvi; Mager, Donald E.

2018-01-01

Purpose To examine the combination of bortezomib and vorinostat in multiple myeloma cells (U266) and xenografts, and to assess the nature of their potential interactions with semi-mechanistic pharmacodynamic models and biomarkers. Methods U266 proliferation was examined for a range of bortezomib and vorinostat exposure times and concentrations (alone and in combination). A non-competitive interaction model was used with interaction parameters that reflect the nature of drug interactions after simultaneous and sequential exposures. p21 and cleaved PARP were measured using immunoblotting to assess critical biomarker dynamics. For xenografts, data were extracted from literature and modeled with a PK/PD model with an interaction parameter. Results Estimated model parameters for simultaneous in vitro and xenograft treatments suggested additive drug effects. The sequence of bortezomib preincubation for 24 hours, followed by vorinostat for 24 hours, resulted in an estimated interaction term significantly less than 1, suggesting synergistic effects. p21 and cleaved PARP were also up-regulated the most in this sequence. Conclusions Semi-mechanistic pharmacodynamic modeling suggests synergistic pharmacodynamic interactions for the sequential administration of bortezomib followed by vorinostat. Increased p21 and cleaved PARP expression can potentially explain mechanisms of their enhanced effects, which require further PK/PD systems analysis to suggest an optimal dosing regimen. PMID:28101809

Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ole Riis

In this thesis we describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon codes with non-uniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance...... is possible as low as Eb/No=0.6 dB, which is about 1.7 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio that marks the cut-off rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability...... of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first Reed-Solomon word is decoded after C computations are presented. This is supported by simulation results that are also extended to other parameters....

Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2018-01-23

Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

AUTOMATIC 3D BUILDING MODEL GENERATION FROM LIDAR AND IMAGE DATA USING SEQUENTIAL MINIMUM BOUNDING RECTANGLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Kwak

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Digital Building Model is an important component in many applications such as city modelling, natural disaster planning, and aftermath evaluation. The importance of accurate and up-to-date building models has been discussed by many researchers, and many different approaches for efficient building model generation have been proposed. They can be categorised according to the data source used, the data processing strategy, and the amount of human interaction. In terms of data source, due to the limitations of using single source data, integration of multi-senor data is desired since it preserves the advantages of the involved datasets. Aerial imagery and LiDAR data are among the commonly combined sources to obtain 3D building models with good vertical accuracy from laser scanning and good planimetric accuracy from aerial images. The most used data processing strategies are data-driven and model-driven ones. Theoretically one can model any shape of buildings using data-driven approaches but practically it leaves the question of how to impose constraints and set the rules during the generation process. Due to the complexity of the implementation of the data-driven approaches, model-based approaches draw the attention of the researchers. However, the major drawback of model-based approaches is that the establishment of representative models involves a manual process that requires human intervention. Therefore, the objective of this research work is to automatically generate building models using the Minimum Bounding Rectangle algorithm and sequentially adjusting them to combine the advantages of image and LiDAR datasets.

Sequential and joint hydrogeophysical inversion using a field-scale groundwater model with ERT and TDEM data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Herckenrath

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Increasingly, ground-based and airborne geophysical data sets are used to inform groundwater models. Recent research focuses on establishing coupling relationships between geophysical and groundwater parameters. To fully exploit such information, this paper presents and compares different hydrogeophysical inversion approaches to inform a field-scale groundwater model with time domain electromagnetic (TDEM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT data. In a sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI a groundwater model is calibrated with geophysical data by coupling groundwater model parameters with the inverted geophysical models. We subsequently compare the SHI with a joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI. In the JHI, a geophysical model is simultaneously inverted with a groundwater model by coupling the groundwater and geophysical parameters to explicitly account for an established petrophysical relationship and its accuracy. Simulations for a synthetic groundwater model and TDEM data showed improved estimates for groundwater model parameters that were coupled to relatively well-resolved geophysical parameters when employing a high-quality petrophysical relationship. Compared to a SHI these improvements were insignificant and geophysical parameter estimates became slightly worse. When employing a low-quality petrophysical relationship, groundwater model parameters improved less for both the SHI and JHI, where the SHI performed relatively better. When comparing a SHI and JHI for a real-world groundwater model and ERT data, differences in parameter estimates were small. For both cases investigated in this paper, the SHI seems favorable, taking into account parameter error, data fit and the complexity of implementing a JHI in combination with its larger computational burden.

Reading Remediation Based on Sequential and Simultaneous Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunnison, Judy; And Others

1982-01-01

The theory postulating a dichotomy between sequential and simultaneous processing is reviewed and its implications for remediating reading problems are reviewed. Research is cited on sequential-simultaneous processing for early and advanced reading. A list of remedial strategies based on the processing dichotomy addresses decoding and lexical…

Topology optimization of induction heating model using sequential linear programming based on move limit with adaptive relaxation

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Hiroshi; Kanda, Yutaro; Okamoto, Yoshifumi; Hirono, Kazuki; Hoshino, Reona; Wakao, Shinji; Tsuburaya, Tomonori

2017-12-01

It is very important to design electrical machineries with high efficiency from the point of view of saving energy. Therefore, topology optimization (TO) is occasionally used as a design method for improving the performance of electrical machinery under the reasonable constraints. Because TO can achieve a design with much higher degree of freedom in terms of structure, there is a possibility for deriving the novel structure which would be quite different from the conventional structure. In this paper, topology optimization using sequential linear programming using move limit based on adaptive relaxation is applied to two models. The magnetic shielding, in which there are many local minima, is firstly employed as firstly benchmarking for the performance evaluation among several mathematical programming methods. Secondly, induction heating model is defined in 2-D axisymmetric field. In this model, the magnetic energy stored in the magnetic body is maximized under the constraint on the volume of magnetic body. Furthermore, the influence of the location of the design domain on the solutions is investigated.

The impact of comorbid body dysmorphic disorder on the response to sequential pharmacological trials for obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Diniz, Juliana B; Costa, Daniel Lc; Cassab, Raony Cc; Pereira, Carlos Ab; Miguel, Euripedes C; Shavitt, Roseli G

2014-06-01

Our aim was to investigate the impact of comorbid body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) on the response to sequential pharmacological trials in adult obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients. The sequential trial initially involved fluoxetine monotherapy followed by one of three randomized, add-on strategies: placebo, clomipramine or quetiapine. We included 138 patients in the initial phase of fluoxetine, up to 80 mg or the maximum tolerated dosage, for 12 weeks. We invited 70 non-responders to participate in the add-on trial; as 54 accepted, we allocated 18 to each treatment group and followed them for an additional 12 weeks. To evaluate the combined effects of sex, age, age at onset, initial severity, type of augmentation and BDD on the response to sequential treatments, we constructed a model using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Of the 39 patients who completed the study (OCD-BDD, n = 13; OCD-non-BDD, n = 26), the OCD-BDD patients were less likely to be classified as responders than the OCD-non-BDD patients (Pearson Chi-Square = 4.4; p = 0.036). In the GEE model, BDD was not significantly associated with a worse response to sequential treatments (z-robust = 1.77; p = 0.07). The predictive potential of BDD regarding sequential treatment strategies for OCD did not survive when the analyses were controlled for other clinical characteristics. © The Author(s) 2013.

Multistrain models predict sequential multidrug treatment strategies to result in less antimicrobial resistance than combination treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

2016-01-01

generated by a mathematical model of the competitive growth of multiple strains of Escherichia coli.Results: Simulation studies showed that sequential use of tetracycline and ampicillin reduced the level of double resistance, when compared to the combination treatment. The effect of the cycling frequency...... frequency did not play a role in suppressing the growth of resistant strains, but the specific order of the two antimicrobials did. Predictions made from the study could be used to redesign multidrug treatment strategies not only for intramuscular treatment in pigs, but also for other dosing routes.......Background: Combination treatment is increasingly used to fight infections caused by bacteria resistant to two or more antimicrobials. While multiple studies have evaluated treatment strategies to minimize the emergence of resistant strains for single antimicrobial treatment, fewer studies have...

Multistrain models predict sequential multidrug treatment strategies to result in less antimicrobial resistance than combination treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

2016-01-01

Background: Combination treatment is increasingly used to fight infections caused by bacteria resistant to two or more antimicrobials. While multiple studies have evaluated treatment strategies to minimize the emergence of resistant strains for single antimicrobial treatment, fewer studies have...... the sensitive fraction of the commensal flora.Growth parameters for competing bacterial strains were estimated from the combined in vitro pharmacodynamic effect of two antimicrobials using the relationship between concentration and net bacterial growth rate. Predictions of in vivo bacterial growth were...... (how frequently antibiotics are alternated in a sequential treatment) of the two drugs was dependent upon the order in which the two drugs were used.Conclusion: Sequential treatment was more effective in preventing the growth of resistant strains when compared to the combination treatment. The cycling...

C-quence: a tool for analyzing qualitative sequential data.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Starkey; Collier, Nicholson T

2002-02-01

C-quence is a software application that matches sequential patterns of qualitative data specified by the user and calculates the rate of occurrence of these patterns in a data set. Although it was designed to facilitate analyses of face-to-face interaction, it is applicable to any data set involving categorical data and sequential information. C-quence queries are constructed using a graphical user interface. The program does not limit the complexity of the sequential patterns specified by the user.

Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

OpenAIRE

Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

2013-01-01

Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia). Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a p...

Confirmatory Analysis of Simultaneous, Sequential, and Achievement Factors on the K-ABC at 11 Age Levels Ranging from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Willson, Victor L.; And Others

1985-01-01

Presents results of confirmatory factor analysis of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for children which is based on the underlying theoretical model of sequential, simultaneous, and achievement factors. Found support for the two-factor, simultaneous and sequential processing model. (MCF)

Measuring sustainability by Energy Efficiency Analysis for Korean Power Companies: A Sequential Slacks-Based Efficiency Measure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Zhang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Improving energy efficiency has been widely regarded as one of the most cost-effective ways to improve sustainability and mitigate climate change. This paper presents a sequential slack-based efficiency measure (SSBM application to model total-factor energy efficiency with undesirable outputs. This approach simultaneously takes into account the sequential environmental technology, total input slacks, and undesirable outputs for energy efficiency analysis. We conduct an empirical analysis of energy efficiency incorporating greenhouse gas emissions of Korean power companies during 2007–2011. The results indicate that most of the power companies are not performing at high energy efficiency. Sequential technology has a significant effect on the energy efficiency measurements. Some policy suggestions based on the empirical results are also presented.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Examining Age-Related Movement Representations for Sequential (Fine-Motor) Finger Movements

Science.gov (United States)

Gabbard, Carl; Cacola, Priscila; Bobbio, Tatiana

2011-01-01

Theory suggests that imagined and executed movement planning relies on internal models for action. Using a chronometry paradigm to compare the movement duration of imagined and executed movements, we tested children aged 7-11 years and adults on their ability to perform sequential finger movements. Underscoring this tactic was our desire to gain a…

Top-down attention affects sequential regularity representation in the human visual system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimura, Motohiro; Widmann, Andreas; Schröger, Erich

2010-08-01

Recent neuroscience studies using visual mismatch negativity (visual MMN), an event-related brain potential (ERP) index of memory-mismatch processes in the visual sensory system, have shown that although sequential regularities embedded in successive visual stimuli can be automatically represented in the visual sensory system, an existence of sequential regularity itself does not guarantee that the sequential regularity will be automatically represented. In the present study, we investigated the effects of top-down attention on sequential regularity representation in the visual sensory system. Our results showed that a sequential regularity (SSSSD) embedded in a modified oddball sequence where infrequent deviant (D) and frequent standard stimuli (S) differing in luminance were regularly presented (SSSSDSSSSDSSSSD...) was represented in the visual sensory system only when participants attended the sequential regularity in luminance, but not when participants ignored the stimuli or simply attended the dimension of luminance per se. This suggests that top-down attention affects sequential regularity representation in the visual sensory system and that top-down attention is a prerequisite for particular sequential regularities to be represented. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

2015-05-15

The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

1995-01-01

This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

Mining compressing sequential problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoang, T.L.; Mörchen, F.; Fradkin, D.; Calders, T.G.K.

2012-01-01

Compression based pattern mining has been successfully applied to many data mining tasks. We propose an approach based on the minimum description length principle to extract sequential patterns that compress a database of sequences well. We show that mining compressing patterns is NP-Hard and

Fast sequential Monte Carlo methods for counting and optimization

CERN Document Server

Rubinstein, Reuven Y; Vaisman, Radislav

2013-01-01

A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the

Computing sequential equilibria for two-player games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miltersen, Peter Bro

2006-01-01

Koller, Megiddo and von Stengel showed how to efficiently compute minimax strategies for two-player extensive-form zero-sum games with imperfect information but perfect recall using linear programming and avoiding conversion to normal form. Their algorithm has been used by AI researchers...... for constructing prescriptive strategies for concrete, often fairly large games. Koller and Pfeffer pointed out that the strategies obtained by the algorithm are not necessarily sequentially rational and that this deficiency is often problematic for the practical applications. We show how to remove this deficiency...... by modifying the linear programs constructed by Koller, Megiddo and von Stengel so that pairs of strategies forming a sequential equilibrium are computed. In particular, we show that a sequential equilibrium for a two-player zero-sum game with imperfect information but perfect recall can be found in polynomial...

Computing Sequential Equilibria for Two-Player Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miltersen, Peter Bro; Sørensen, Troels Bjerre

2006-01-01

Koller, Megiddo and von Stengel showed how to efficiently compute minimax strategies for two-player extensive-form zero-sum games with imperfect information but perfect recall using linear programming and avoiding conversion to normal form. Koller and Pfeffer pointed out that the strategies...... obtained by the algorithm are not necessarily sequentially rational and that this deficiency is often problematic for the practical applications. We show how to remove this deficiency by modifying the linear programs constructed by Koller, Megiddo and von Stengel so that pairs of strategies forming...... a sequential equilibrium are computed. In particular, we show that a sequential equilibrium for a two-player zero-sum game with imperfect information but perfect recall can be found in polynomial time. In addition, the equilibrium we find is normal-form perfect. Our technique generalizes to general-sum games...

From sequential to parallel programming with patterns

CERN Document Server

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

To increase in both performance and efficiency, our programming models need to adapt to better exploit modern processors. The classic idioms and patterns for programming such as loops, branches or recursion are the pillars of almost every code and are well known among all programmers. These patterns all have in common that they are sequential in nature. Embracing parallel programming patterns, which allow us to program for multi- and many-core hardware in a natural way, greatly simplifies the task of designing a program that scales and performs on modern hardware, independently of the used programming language, and in a generic way.

Parameter sampling capabilities of sequential and simultaneous data assimilation: I. Analytical comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fossum, Kristian; Mannseth, Trond

2014-01-01

We assess the parameter sampling capabilities of some Bayesian, ensemble-based, joint state-parameter (JS) estimation methods. The forward model is assumed to be non-chaotic and have nonlinear components, and the emphasis is on results obtained for the parameters in the state-parameter vector. A variety of approximate sampling methods exist, and a number of numerical comparisons between such methods have been performed. Often, more than one of the defining characteristics vary from one method to another, so it can be difficult to point out which characteristic of the more successful method in such a comparison was decisive. In this study, we single out one defining characteristic for comparison; whether or not data are assimilated sequentially or simultaneously. The current paper is concerned with analytical investigations into this issue. We carefully select one sequential and one simultaneous JS method for the comparison. We also design a corresponding pair of pure parameter estimation methods, and we show how the JS methods and the parameter estimation methods are pairwise related. It is shown that the sequential and the simultaneous parameter estimation methods are equivalent for one particular combination of observations with different degrees of nonlinearity. Strong indications are presented for why one may expect the sequential parameter estimation method to outperform the simultaneous parameter estimation method for all other combinations of observations. Finally, the conditions for when similar relations can be expected to hold between the corresponding JS methods are discussed. A companion paper, part II (Fossum and Mannseth 2014 Inverse Problems 30 114003), is concerned with statistical analysis of results from a range of numerical experiments involving sequential and simultaneous JS estimation, where the design of the numerical investigation is motivated by our findings in the current paper. (paper)

A one-sided sequential test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Racz, A.; Lux, I. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Atomic Energy Research Inst.

1996-04-16

The applicability of the classical sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT) for early failure detection problems is limited by the fact that there is an extra time delay between the occurrence of the failure and its first recognition. Chien and Adams developed a method to minimize this time for the case when the problem can be formulated as testing the mean value of a Gaussian signal. In our paper we propose a procedure that can be applied for both mean and variance testing and that minimizes the time delay. The method is based on a special parametrization of the classical SPRT. The one-sided sequential tests (OSST) can reproduce the results of the Chien-Adams test when applied for mean values. (author).

Sequential Ensembles Tolerant to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ju Hyoung Lee

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Due to complicated and undefined systematic errors in satellite observation, data assimilation integrating model states with satellite observations is more complicated than field measurements-based data assimilation at a local scale. In the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR soil moisture, the systematic errors arising from uncertainties in roughness conditions are significant and unavoidable, but current satellite bias correction methods do not resolve the problems very well. Thus, apart from the bias correction process of satellite observation, it is important to assess the inherent capability of satellite data assimilation in such sub-optimal but more realistic observational error conditions. To this end, time-evolving sequential ensembles of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is compared with stationary ensemble of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI scheme that does not evolve the ensembles over time. As the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the surface roughness is more sensitive to the SAR retrievals than measurement errors, it is a scope of this study to monitor how data assimilation alters the effects of roughness on SAR soil moisture retrievals. In results, two data assimilation schemes all provided intermediate values between SAR overestimation, and model underestimation. However, under the same SAR observational error conditions, the sequential ensembles approached a calibrated model showing the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, while the stationary ensemble converged towards the SAR observations exhibiting the highest RMSE. As compared to stationary ensembles, sequential ensembles have a better tolerance to SAR retrieval errors. Such inherent nature of EnKF suggests an operational merit as a satellite data assimilation system, due to the limitation of bias correction methods currently available.

The sequential application of macroalgal biosorbents for the bioremediation of a complex industrial effluent.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel T Kidgell

Full Text Available Fe-treated biochar and raw biochar produced from macroalgae are effective biosorbents of metalloids and metals, respectively. However, the treatment of complex effluents that contain both metalloid and metal contaminants presents a challenging scenario. We test a multiple-biosorbent approach to bioremediation using Fe-biochar and biochar to remediate both metalloids and metals from the effluent from a coal-fired power station. First, a model was derived from published data for this effluent to predict the biosorption of 21 elements by Fe-biochar and biochar. The modelled outputs were then used to design biosorption experiments using Fe-biochar and biochar, both simultaneously and in sequence, to treat effluent containing multiple contaminants in excess of water quality criteria. The waste water was produced during ash disposal at an Australian coal-fired power station. The application of Fe-biochar and biochar, either simultaneously or sequentially, resulted in a more comprehensive remediation of metalloids and metals compared to either biosorbent used individually. The most effective treatment was the sequential use of Fe-biochar to remove metalloids from the waste water, followed by biochar to remove metals. Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn were reduced to the lowest concentration following the sequential application of the two biosorbents, and their final concentrations were predicted by the model. Overall, 17 of the 21 elements measured were remediated to, or below, the concentrations that were predicted by the model. Both metalloids and metals can be remediated from complex effluent using biosorbents with different characteristics but derived from a single feedstock. Furthermore, the extent of remediation can be predicted for similar effluents using additive models.

The sequential application of macroalgal biosorbents for the bioremediation of a complex industrial effluent.

Science.gov (United States)

Kidgell, Joel T; de Nys, Rocky; Paul, Nicholas A; Roberts, David A

2014-01-01

Fe-treated biochar and raw biochar produced from macroalgae are effective biosorbents of metalloids and metals, respectively. However, the treatment of complex effluents that contain both metalloid and metal contaminants presents a challenging scenario. We test a multiple-biosorbent approach to bioremediation using Fe-biochar and biochar to remediate both metalloids and metals from the effluent from a coal-fired power station. First, a model was derived from published data for this effluent to predict the biosorption of 21 elements by Fe-biochar and biochar. The modelled outputs were then used to design biosorption experiments using Fe-biochar and biochar, both simultaneously and in sequence, to treat effluent containing multiple contaminants in excess of water quality criteria. The waste water was produced during ash disposal at an Australian coal-fired power station. The application of Fe-biochar and biochar, either simultaneously or sequentially, resulted in a more comprehensive remediation of metalloids and metals compared to either biosorbent used individually. The most effective treatment was the sequential use of Fe-biochar to remove metalloids from the waste water, followed by biochar to remove metals. Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn were reduced to the lowest concentration following the sequential application of the two biosorbents, and their final concentrations were predicted by the model. Overall, 17 of the 21 elements measured were remediated to, or below, the concentrations that were predicted by the model. Both metalloids and metals can be remediated from complex effluent using biosorbents with different characteristics but derived from a single feedstock. Furthermore, the extent of remediation can be predicted for similar effluents using additive models.

Discrimination between sequential and simultaneous virtual channels with electrical hearing

OpenAIRE

Landsberger, David; Galvin, John J.

2011-01-01

In cochlear implants (CIs), simultaneous or sequential stimulation of adjacent electrodes can produce intermediate pitch percepts between those of the component electrodes. However, it is unclear whether simultaneous and sequential virtual channels (VCs) can be discriminated. In this study, CI users were asked to discriminate simultaneous and sequential VCs; discrimination was measured for monopolar (MP) and bipolar + 1 stimulation (BP + 1), i.e., relatively broad and focused stimulation mode...

Behavioral preference in sequential decision-making and its association with anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei

2018-06-01

In daily life, people often make consecutive decisions before the ultimate goal is reached (i.e., sequential decision-making). However, this kind of decision-making has been largely overlooked in the literature. The current study investigated whether behavioral preference would change during sequential decisions, and the neural processes underlying the potential changes. For this purpose, we revised the classic balloon analogue risk task and recorded the electroencephalograph (EEG) signals associated with each step of decision-making. Independent component analysis performed on EEG data revealed that four EEG components elicited by periodic feedback in the current step predicted participants' decisions (gamble vs. no gamble) in the next step. In order of time sequence, these components were: bilateral occipital alpha rhythm, bilateral frontal theta rhythm, middle frontal theta rhythm, and bilateral sensorimotor mu rhythm. According to the information flows between these EEG oscillations, we proposed a brain model that describes the temporal dynamics of sequential decision-making. Finally, we found that the tendency to gamble (as well as the power intensity of bilateral frontal theta rhythms) was sensitive to the individual level of trait anxiety in certain steps, which may help understand the role of emotion in decision-making. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hybrid Computerized Adaptive Testing: From Group Sequential Design to Fully Sequential Design

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shiyu; Lin, Haiyan; Chang, Hua-Hua; Douglas, Jeff

2016-01-01

Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) and multistage testing (MST) have become two of the most popular modes in large-scale computer-based sequential testing. Though most designs of CAT and MST exhibit strength and weakness in recent large-scale implementations, there is no simple answer to the question of which design is better because different…

Sequential dependencies in magnitude scaling of loudness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Jesteadt, Walt

2013-01-01

Ten normally hearing listeners used a programmable sone-potentiometer knob to adjust the level of a 1000-Hz sinusoid to match the loudness of numbers presented to them in a magnitude production task. Three different power-law exponents (0.15, 0.30, and 0.60) and a log-law with equal steps in d......B were used to program the sone-potentiometer. The knob settings systematically influenced the form of the loudness function. Time series analysis was used to assess the sequential dependencies in the data, which increased with increasing exponent and were greatest for the log-law. It would be possible......, therefore, to choose knob properties that minimized these dependencies. When the sequential dependencies were removed from the data, the slope of the loudness functions did not change, but the variability decreased. Sequential dependencies were only present when the level of the tone on the previous trial...

Visual short-term memory for sequential arrays.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Arjun; Jiang, Yuhong

2005-04-01

The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) for a single visual display has been investigated in past research, but VSTM for multiple sequential arrays has been explored only recently. In this study, we investigate the capacity of VSTM across two sequential arrays separated by a variable stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). VSTM for spatial locations (Experiment 1), colors (Experiments 2-4), orientations (Experiments 3 and 4), and conjunction of color and orientation (Experiment 4) were tested, with the SOA across the two sequential arrays varying from 100 to 1,500 msec. We find that VSTM for the trailing array is much better than VSTM for the leading array, but when averaged across the two arrays VSTM has a constant capacity independent of the SOA. We suggest that multiple displays compete for retention in VSTM and that separating information into two temporally discrete groups does not enhance the overall capacity of VSTM.

The target-to-foils shift in simultaneous and sequential lineups.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Steven E; Davey, Sherrie L

2005-04-01

A theoretical cornerstone in eyewitness identification research is the proposition that witnesses, in making decisions from standard simultaneous lineups, make relative judgments. The present research considers two sources of support for this proposal. An experiment by G. L. Wells (1993) showed that if the target is removed from a lineup, witnesses shift their responses to pick foils, rather than rejecting the lineups, a result we will term a target-to-foils shift. Additional empirical support is provided by results from sequential lineups which typically show higher accuracy than simultaneous lineups, presumably because of a decrease in the use of relative judgments in making identification decisions. The combination of these two lines of research suggests that the target-to-foils shift should be reduced in sequential lineups relative to simultaneous lineups. Results of two experiments showed an overall advantage for sequential lineups, but also showed a target-to-foils shift equal in size for simultaneous and sequential lineups. Additional analyses indicated that the target-to-foils shift in sequential lineups was moderated in part by an order effect and was produced with (Experiment 2) or without (Experiment 1) a shift in decision criterion. This complex pattern of results suggests that more work is needed to understand the processes which underlie decisions in simultaneous and sequential lineups.

Mobility of radionuclides based on sequential extraction of soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salbu, B.; Oughton, D.H.; Lien, H.N.; Oestby, G.; Strand, P.

1992-01-01

Since 1989, core samples of soil and vegetation from semi-natural pastures have been collected at selected sites in Norway during the growing season. The activity concentrations in soil and vegetation as well as transfer coefficients vary significantly between regions, within regions and even within sampling plot areas. In order to differentiate between mobil and inert fractions of radioactive and stable isotopes of Cs and Sr in soils, samples were extracted sequentially using agents with increasing dissolution power. The reproducibility of the sequential extraction technique is good and the data obtained seems most informative. As the distribution pattern for radioactive and stable isotopes of Cs and Sr are similar, a high degree of isotopic exchange is indicated. Based on easily leachable fractions, mobility factors are calculated. In general the mobility of 90 Sr is higher than for 137 Cs. Mobility factors are not significantly influenced by seasonal variations, but a decrease in the mobile fraction in soil with time is indicated. Mobility factors should be considered useful for modelling purposes. (au)

Sequential, progressive, equal-power, reflective beam-splitter arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Manhart, Paul K.

2017-11-01

The equations to calculate equal-power reflectivity of a sequential series of beam splitters is presented. Non-sequential optical design examples are offered for uniform illumination using diode lasers. Objects created using Boolean operators and Swept Surfaces can create objects capable of reflecting light into predefined elevation and azimuth angles. Analysis of the illumination patterns for the array are also presented.

Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

2009-01-01

This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.

2001-01-01

A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

Basal ganglia and cortical networks for sequential ordering and rhythm of complex movements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffery G. Bednark

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Voluntary actions require the concurrent engagement and coordinated control of complex temporal (e.g. rhythm and ordinal motor processes. Using high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI and multi-voxel pattern analysis (MVPA, we sought to determine the degree to which these complex motor processes are dissociable in basal ganglia and cortical networks. We employed three different finger-tapping tasks that differed in the demand on the sequential temporal rhythm or sequential ordering of submovements. Our results demonstrate that sequential rhythm and sequential order tasks were partially dissociable based on activation differences. The sequential rhythm task activated a widespread network centered around the SMA and basal-ganglia regions including the dorsomedial putamen and caudate nucleus, while the sequential order task preferentially activated a fronto-parietal network. There was also extensive overlap between sequential rhythm and sequential order tasks, with both tasks commonly activating bilateral premotor, supplementary motor, and superior/inferior parietal cortical regions, as well as regions of the caudate/putamen of the basal ganglia and the ventro-lateral thalamus. Importantly, within the cortical regions that were active for both complex movements, MVPA could accurately classify different patterns of activation for the sequential rhythm and sequential order tasks. In the basal ganglia, however, overlapping activation for the sequential rhythm and sequential order tasks, which was found in classic motor circuits of the putamen and ventro-lateral thalamus, could not be accurately differentiated by MVPA. Overall, our results highlight the convergent architecture of the motor system, where complex motor information that is spatially distributed in the cortex converges into a more compact representation in the basal ganglia.

The sequential price of anarchy for atomic congestion games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, Jasper; Uetz, Marc Jochen; Liu, Tie-Yan; Qi, Qi; Ye, Yinyu

2014-01-01

In situations without central coordination, the price of anarchy relates the quality of any Nash equilibrium to the quality of a global optimum. Instead of assuming that all players choose their actions simultaneously, we consider games where players choose their actions sequentially. The sequential

A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

Native Frames: Disentangling Sequential from Concerted Three-Body Fragmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajput, Jyoti; Severt, T.; Berry, Ben; Jochim, Bethany; Feizollah, Peyman; Kaderiya, Balram; Zohrabi, M.; Ablikim, U.; Ziaee, Farzaneh; Raju P., Kanaka; Rolles, D.; Rudenko, A.; Carnes, K. D.; Esry, B. D.; Ben-Itzhak, I.

2018-03-01

A key question concerning the three-body fragmentation of polyatomic molecules is the distinction of sequential and concerted mechanisms, i.e., the stepwise or simultaneous cleavage of bonds. Using laser-driven fragmentation of OCS into O++C++S+ and employing coincidence momentum imaging, we demonstrate a novel method that enables the clear separation of sequential and concerted breakup. The separation is accomplished by analyzing the three-body fragmentation in the native frame associated with each step and taking advantage of the rotation of the intermediate molecular fragment, CO2 + or CS2 + , before its unimolecular dissociation. This native-frame method works for any projectile (electrons, ions, or photons), provides details on each step of the sequential breakup, and enables the retrieval of the relevant spectra for sequential and concerted breakup separately. Specifically, this allows the determination of the branching ratio of all these processes in OCS3 + breakup. Moreover, we find that the first step of sequential breakup is tightly aligned along the laser polarization and identify the likely electronic states of the intermediate dication that undergo unimolecular dissociation in the second step. Finally, the separated concerted breakup spectra show clearly that the central carbon atom is preferentially ejected perpendicular to the laser field.

Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The

Sequential Dependencies in Driving

Science.gov (United States)

Doshi, Anup; Tran, Cuong; Wilder, Matthew H.; Mozer, Michael C.; Trivedi, Mohan M.

2012-01-01

The effect of recent experience on current behavior has been studied extensively in simple laboratory tasks. We explore the nature of sequential effects in the more naturalistic setting of automobile driving. Driving is a safety-critical task in which delayed response times may have severe consequences. Using a realistic driving simulator, we find…

Research on parallel algorithm for sequential pattern mining

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lijuan; Qin, Bai; Wang, Yu; Hao, Zhongxiao

2008-03-01

Sequential pattern mining is the mining of frequent sequences related to time or other orders from the sequence database. Its initial motivation is to discover the laws of customer purchasing in a time section by finding the frequent sequences. In recent years, sequential pattern mining has become an important direction of data mining, and its application field has not been confined to the business database and has extended to new data sources such as Web and advanced science fields such as DNA analysis. The data of sequential pattern mining has characteristics as follows: mass data amount and distributed storage. Most existing sequential pattern mining algorithms haven't considered the above-mentioned characteristics synthetically. According to the traits mentioned above and combining the parallel theory, this paper puts forward a new distributed parallel algorithm SPP(Sequential Pattern Parallel). The algorithm abides by the principal of pattern reduction and utilizes the divide-and-conquer strategy for parallelization. The first parallel task is to construct frequent item sets applying frequent concept and search space partition theory and the second task is to structure frequent sequences using the depth-first search method at each processor. The algorithm only needs to access the database twice and doesn't generate the candidated sequences, which abates the access time and improves the mining efficiency. Based on the random data generation procedure and different information structure designed, this paper simulated the SPP algorithm in a concrete parallel environment and implemented the AprioriAll algorithm. The experiments demonstrate that compared with AprioriAll, the SPP algorithm had excellent speedup factor and efficiency.

Random sequential adsorption: from continuum to lattice and pre-patterned substrates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadilhe, A; Araujo, N A M; Privman, Vladimir

2007-01-01

The random sequential adsorption (RSA) model has served as a paradigm for diverse phenomena in physical chemistry, as well as in other areas such as biology, ecology, and sociology. In the present work, we survey aspects of the RSA model with emphasis on the approach to and properties of jammed states obtained for large times in continuum deposition versus that on lattice substrates, and on pre-patterned surfaces. The latter model has been of recent interest in the context of efforts to use pre-patterning as a tool to improve self-assembly in micro- and nanoscale surface structure engineering

Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

Science.gov (United States)

Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

2017-03-01

The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Framework for sequential approximate optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, J.H.; Etman, L.F.P.; Keulen, van F.; Rooda, J.E.

2004-01-01

An object-oriented framework for Sequential Approximate Optimization (SAO) isproposed. The framework aims to provide an open environment for thespecification and implementation of SAO strategies. The framework is based onthe Python programming language and contains a toolbox of Python

A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

OpenAIRE

Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

2013-01-01

Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-obj...

A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurn, A.S.; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specific......We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting...... of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy...

Sequential Sampling Plan of Anthonomus grandis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Cotton Plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Grigolli, J F J; Souza, L A; Mota, T A; Fernandes, M G; Busoli, A C

2017-04-01

The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is one of the most important pests of cotton production worldwide. The objective of this work was to develop a sequential sampling plan for the boll weevil. The studies were conducted in Maracaju, MS, Brazil, in two seasons with cotton cultivar FM 993. A 10,000-m2 area of cotton was subdivided into 100 of 10- by 10-m plots, and five plants per plot were evaluated weekly, recording the number of squares with feeding + oviposition punctures of A. grandis in each plant. A sequential sampling plan by the maximum likelihood ratio test was developed, using a 10% threshold level of squares attacked. A 5% security level was adopted for the elaboration of the sequential sampling plan. The type I and type II error used was 0.05, recommended for studies with insects. The adjustment of the frequency distributions used were divided into two phases, so that the model that best fit to the data was the negative binomial distribution up to 85 DAE (Phase I), and from there the best fit was Poisson distribution (Phase II). The equations that define the decision-making for Phase I are S0 = -5.1743 + 0.5730N and S1 = 5.1743 + 0.5730N, and for the Phase II are S0 = -4.2479 + 0.5771N and S1 = 4.2479 + 0.5771N. The sequential sampling plan developed indicated the maximum number of sample units expected for decision-making is ∼39 and 31 samples for Phases I and II, respectively. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of Diagrams on Recalling Sequential Elements in Expository Texts.

Science.gov (United States)

Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

1988-01-01

Examines the instructional effectiveness of abstract diagrams on recall of sequential relations in social science textbooks. Concludes that diagrams assist significantly the recall of sequential relations in a text and decrease significantly the rate of order mistakes. (RS)

Statistical analysis of dose heterogeneity in circulating blood: Implications for sequential methods of total body irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molloy, Janelle A.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Improvements in delivery techniques for total body irradiation (TBI) using Tomotherapy and intensity modulated radiation therapy have been proven feasible. Despite the promise of improved dose conformality, the application of these ''sequential'' techniques has been hampered by concerns over dose heterogeneity to circulating blood. The present study was conducted to provide quantitative evidence regarding the potential clinical impact of this heterogeneity. Methods: Blood perfusion was modeled analytically as possessing linear, sinusoidal motion in the craniocaudal dimension. The average perfusion period for human circulation was estimated to be approximately 78 s. Sequential treatment delivery was modeled as a Gaussian-shaped dose cloud with a 10 cm length that traversed a 183 cm patient length at a uniform speed. Total dose to circulating blood voxels was calculated via numerical integration and normalized to 2 Gy per fraction. Dose statistics and equivalent uniform dose (EUD) were calculated for relevant treatment times, radiobiological parameters, blood perfusion rates, and fractionation schemes. The model was then refined to account for random dispersion superimposed onto the underlying periodic blood flow. Finally, a fully stochastic model was developed using binomial and trinomial probability distributions. These models allowed for the analysis of nonlinear sequential treatment modalities and treatment designs that incorporate deliberate organ sparing. Results: The dose received by individual blood voxels exhibited asymmetric behavior that depended on the coherence among the blood velocity, circulation phase, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the irradiation beam. Heterogeneity increased with the perfusion period and decreased with the treatment time. Notwithstanding, heterogeneity was less than ±10% for perfusion periods less than 150 s. The EUD was compromised for radiosensitive cells, long perfusion periods, and short treatment times

Statistical analysis of dose heterogeneity in circulating blood: implications for sequential methods of total body irradiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Molloy, Janelle A

2010-11-01

Improvements in delivery techniques for total body irradiation (TBI) using Tomotherapy and intensity modulated radiation therapy have been proven feasible. Despite the promise of improved dose conformality, the application of these "sequential" techniques has been hampered by concerns over dose heterogeneity to circulating blood. The present study was conducted to provide quantitative evidence regarding the potential clinical impact of this heterogeneity. Blood perfusion was modeled analytically as possessing linear, sinusoidal motion in the craniocaudal dimension. The average perfusion period for human circulation was estimated to be approximately 78 s. Sequential treatment delivery was modeled as a Gaussian-shaped dose cloud with a 10 cm length that traversed a 183 cm patient length at a uniform speed. Total dose to circulating blood voxels was calculated via numerical integration and normalized to 2 Gy per fraction. Dose statistics and equivalent uniform dose (EUD) were calculated for relevant treatment times, radiobiological parameters, blood perfusion rates, and fractionation schemes. The model was then refined to account for random dispersion superimposed onto the underlying periodic blood flow. Finally, a fully stochastic model was developed using binomial and trinomial probability distributions. These models allowed for the analysis of nonlinear sequential treatment modalities and treatment designs that incorporate deliberate organ sparing. The dose received by individual blood voxels exhibited asymmetric behavior that depended on the coherence among the blood velocity, circulation phase, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the irradiation beam. Heterogeneity increased with the perfusion period and decreased with the treatment time. Notwithstanding, heterogeneity was less than +/- 10% for perfusion periods less than 150 s. The EUD was compromised for radiosensitive cells, long perfusion periods, and short treatment times. However, the EUD was

Extending the Simultaneous-Sequential Paradigm to Measure Perceptual Capacity for Features and Words

Science.gov (United States)

Scharff, Alec; Palmer, John; Moore, Cathleen M.

2011-01-01

In perception, divided attention refers to conditions in which multiple stimuli are relevant to an observer. To measure the effect of divided attention in terms of perceptual capacity, we introduce an extension of the simultaneous-sequential paradigm. The extension makes predictions for fixed-capacity models as well as for unlimited-capacity…

Sequential Bayesian geoacoustic inversion for mobile and compact source-receiver configuration.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrière, Olivier; Hermand, Jean-Pierre

2012-04-01

Geoacoustic characterization of wide areas through inversion requires easily deployable configurations including free-drifting platforms, underwater gliders and autonomous vehicles, typically performing repeated transmissions during their course. In this paper, the inverse problem is formulated as sequential Bayesian filtering to take advantage of repeated transmission measurements. Nonlinear Kalman filters implement a random-walk model for geometry and environment and an acoustic propagation code in the measurement model. Data from MREA/BP07 sea trials are tested consisting of multitone and frequency-modulated signals (bands: 0.25-0.8 and 0.8-1.6 kHz) received on a shallow vertical array of four hydrophones 5-m spaced drifting over 0.7-1.6 km range. Space- and time-coherent processing are applied to the respective signal types. Kalman filter outputs are compared to a sequence of global optimizations performed independently on each received signal. For both signal types, the sequential approach is more accurate but also more efficient. Due to frequency diversity, the processing of modulated signals produces a more stable tracking. Although an extended Kalman filter provides comparable estimates of the tracked parameters, the ensemble Kalman filter is necessary to properly assess uncertainty. In spite of mild range dependence and simplified bottom model, all tracked geoacoustic parameters are consistent with high-resolution seismic profiling, core logging P-wave velocity, and previous inversion results with fixed geometries.

Quantum Probability Zero-One Law for Sequential Terminal Events

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Wulf

1980-07-01

On the basis of the Jauch-Piron quantum probability calculus a zero-one law for sequential terminal events is proven, and the significance of certain crucial axioms in the quantum probability calculus is discussed. The result shows that the Jauch-Piron set of axioms is appropriate for the non-Boolean algebra of sequential events.

Concatenated coding system with iterated sequential inner decoding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ole Riis; Paaske, Erik

1995-01-01

We describe a concatenated coding system with iterated sequential inner decoding. The system uses convolutional codes of very long constraint length and operates on iterations between an inner Fano decoder and an outer Reed-Solomon decoder......We describe a concatenated coding system with iterated sequential inner decoding. The system uses convolutional codes of very long constraint length and operates on iterations between an inner Fano decoder and an outer Reed-Solomon decoder...

Lineup Composition, Suspect Position, and the Sequential Lineup Advantage

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Curt A.; Gronlund, Scott D.; Clark, Steven E.

2008-01-01

N. M. Steblay, J. Dysart, S. Fulero, and R. C. L. Lindsay (2001) argued that sequential lineups reduce the likelihood of mistaken eyewitness identification. Experiment 1 replicated the design of R. C. L. Lindsay and G. L. Wells (1985), the first study to show the sequential lineup advantage. However, the innocent suspect was chosen at a lower rate…

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jørn Wetterslev

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors. Methods We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. Results The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D2 measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Schöbel

Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

Improving navigability on the Kromme River Estuary: A choice ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2013-03-14

Mar 14, 2013 ... logit model, random parameters logit model. INTRODUCTION .... tives, is treated by the RUM as a stochastic, utility-maximising choice (Louviere et ..... comparable to the one estimated for a linear regression model. (the ones ...

Device-independent two-party cryptography secure against sequential attacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaniewski, Jędrzej; Wehner, Stephanie

2016-01-01

The goal of two-party cryptography is to enable two parties, Alice and Bob, to solve common tasks without the need for mutual trust. Examples of such tasks are private access to a database, and secure identification. Quantum communication enables security for all of these problems in the noisy-storage model by sending more signals than the adversary can store in a certain time frame. Here, we initiate the study of device-independent (DI) protocols for two-party cryptography in the noisy-storage model. Specifically, we present a relatively easy to implement protocol for a cryptographic building block known as weak string erasure and prove its security even if the devices used in the protocol are prepared by the dishonest party. DI two-party cryptography is made challenging by the fact that Alice and Bob do not trust each other, which requires new techniques to establish security. We fully analyse the case of memoryless devices (for which sequential attacks are optimal) and the case of sequential attacks for arbitrary devices. The key ingredient of the proof, which might be of independent interest, is an explicit (and tight) relation between the violation of the Clauser–Horne–Shimony–Holt inequality observed by Alice and Bob and uncertainty generated by Alice against Bob who is forced to measure his system before finding out Alice’s setting (guessing with postmeasurement information). In particular, we show that security is possible for arbitrarily small violation. (paper)

Device-independent two-party cryptography secure against sequential attacks

Science.gov (United States)

Kaniewski, Jędrzej; Wehner, Stephanie

2016-05-01

The goal of two-party cryptography is to enable two parties, Alice and Bob, to solve common tasks without the need for mutual trust. Examples of such tasks are private access to a database, and secure identification. Quantum communication enables security for all of these problems in the noisy-storage model by sending more signals than the adversary can store in a certain time frame. Here, we initiate the study of device-independent (DI) protocols for two-party cryptography in the noisy-storage model. Specifically, we present a relatively easy to implement protocol for a cryptographic building block known as weak string erasure and prove its security even if the devices used in the protocol are prepared by the dishonest party. DI two-party cryptography is made challenging by the fact that Alice and Bob do not trust each other, which requires new techniques to establish security. We fully analyse the case of memoryless devices (for which sequential attacks are optimal) and the case of sequential attacks for arbitrary devices. The key ingredient of the proof, which might be of independent interest, is an explicit (and tight) relation between the violation of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality observed by Alice and Bob and uncertainty generated by Alice against Bob who is forced to measure his system before finding out Alice’s setting (guessing with postmeasurement information). In particular, we show that security is possible for arbitrarily small violation.

Heat accumulation during sequential cortical bone drilling.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmisano, Andrew C; Tai, Bruce L; Belmont, Barry; Irwin, Todd A; Shih, Albert; Holmes, James R

2016-03-01

Significant research exists regarding heat production during single-hole bone drilling. No published data exist regarding repetitive sequential drilling. This study elucidates the phenomenon of heat accumulation for sequential drilling with both Kirschner wires (K wires) and standard two-flute twist drills. It was hypothesized that cumulative heat would result in a higher temperature with each subsequent drill pass. Nine holes in a 3 × 3 array were drilled sequentially on moistened cadaveric tibia bone kept at body temperature (about 37 °C). Four thermocouples were placed at the center of four adjacent holes and 2 mm below the surface. A battery-driven hand drill guided by a servo-controlled motion system was used. Six samples were drilled with each tool (2.0 mm K wire and 2.0 and 2.5 mm standard drills). K wire drilling increased temperature from 5 °C at the first hole to 20 °C at holes 6 through 9. A similar trend was found in standard drills with less significant increments. The maximum temperatures of both tools increased from drill sizes was found to be insignificant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, heat accumulated during sequential drilling, with size difference being insignificant. K wire produced more heat than its twist-drill counterparts. This study has demonstrated the heat accumulation phenomenon and its significant effect on temperature. Maximizing the drilling field and reducing the number of drill passes may decrease bone injury. © 2015 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Image Quality of 3rd Generation Spiral Cranial Dual-Source CT in Combination with an Advanced Model Iterative Reconstruction Technique: A Prospective Intra-Individual Comparison Study to Standard Sequential Cranial CT Using Identical Radiation Dose.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenz, Holger; Maros, Máté E; Meyer, Mathias; Förster, Alex; Haubenreisser, Holger; Kurth, Stefan; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Flohr, Thomas; Leidecker, Christianne; Groden, Christoph; Scharf, Johann; Henzler, Thomas

2015-01-01

To prospectively intra-individually compare image quality of a 3rd generation Dual-Source-CT (DSCT) spiral cranial CT (cCT) to a sequential 4-slice Multi-Slice-CT (MSCT) while maintaining identical intra-individual radiation dose levels. 35 patients, who had a non-contrast enhanced sequential cCT examination on a 4-slice MDCT within the past 12 months, underwent a spiral cCT scan on a 3rd generation DSCT. CTDIvol identical to initial 4-slice MDCT was applied. Data was reconstructed using filtered backward projection (FBP) and 3rd-generation iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithm at 5 different IR strength levels. Two neuroradiologists independently evaluated subjective image quality using a 4-point Likert-scale and objective image quality was assessed in white matter and nucleus caudatus with signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) being subsequently calculated. Subjective image quality of all spiral cCT datasets was rated significantly higher compared to the 4-slice MDCT sequential acquisitions (pspiral compared to sequential cCT datasets with mean SNR improvement of 61.65% (p*Bonferroni0.05spiral cCT with an advanced model IR technique significantly improves subjective and objective image quality compared to a standard sequential cCT acquisition acquired at identical dose levels.

Cost-effectiveness of simultaneous versus sequential surgery in head and neck reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Kevin K; Enepekides, Danny J; Higgins, Kevin M

2011-02-01

To determine whether simultaneous (ablation and reconstruction overlaps by two teams) head and neck reconstruction is cost effective compared to sequentially (ablation followed by reconstruction) performed surgery. Case-controlled study. Tertiary care hospital. Oncology patients undergoing free flap reconstruction of the head and neck. A match paired comparison study was performed with a retrospective chart review examining the total time of surgery for sequential and simultaneous surgery. Nine patients were selected for both the sequential and simultaneous groups. Sequential head and neck reconstruction patients were pair matched with patients who had undergone similar oncologic ablative or reconstructive procedures performed in a simultaneous fashion. A detailed cost analysis using the microcosting method was then undertaken looking at the direct costs of the surgeons, anesthesiologist, operating room, and nursing. On average, simultaneous surgery required 3 hours 15 minutes less operating time, leading to a cost savings of approximately $1200/case when compared to sequential surgery. This represents approximately a 15% reduction in the cost of the entire operation. Simultaneous head and neck reconstruction is more cost effective when compared to sequential surgery.

Parameter sampling capabilities of sequential and simultaneous data assimilation: II. Statistical analysis of numerical results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fossum, Kristian; Mannseth, Trond

2014-01-01

We assess and compare parameter sampling capabilities of one sequential and one simultaneous Bayesian, ensemble-based, joint state-parameter (JS) estimation method. In the companion paper, part I (Fossum and Mannseth 2014 Inverse Problems 30 114002), analytical investigations lead us to propose three claims, essentially stating that the sequential method can be expected to outperform the simultaneous method for weakly nonlinear forward models. Here, we assess the reliability and robustness of these claims through statistical analysis of results from a range of numerical experiments. Samples generated by the two approximate JS methods are compared to samples from the posterior distribution generated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, using four approximate measures of distance between probability distributions. Forward-model nonlinearity is assessed from a stochastic nonlinearity measure allowing for sufficiently large model dimensions. Both toy models (with low computational complexity, and where the nonlinearity is fairly easy to control) and two-phase porous-media flow models (corresponding to down-scaled versions of problems to which the JS methods have been frequently applied recently) are considered in the numerical experiments. Results from the statistical analysis show strong support of all three claims stated in part I. (paper)

Dihydroazulene photoswitch operating in sequential tunneling regime

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broman, Søren Lindbæk; Lara-Avila, Samuel; Thisted, Christine Lindbjerg

2012-01-01

to electrodes so that the electron transport goes by sequential tunneling. To assure weak coupling, the DHA switching kernel is modified by incorporating p-MeSC6H4 end-groups. Molecules are prepared by Suzuki cross-couplings on suitable halogenated derivatives of DHA. The synthesis presents an expansion of our......, incorporating a p-MeSC6H4 anchoring group in one end, has been placed in a silver nanogap. Conductance measurements justify that transport through both DHA (high resistivity) and VHF (low resistivity) forms goes by sequential tunneling. The switching is fairly reversible and reenterable; after more than 20 ON...

A Trust-region-based Sequential Quadratic Programming Algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

This technical note documents the trust-region-based sequential quadratic programming algorithm used in other works by the authors. The algorithm seeks to minimize a convex nonlinear cost function subject to linear inequalty constraints and nonlinear equality constraints.......This technical note documents the trust-region-based sequential quadratic programming algorithm used in other works by the authors. The algorithm seeks to minimize a convex nonlinear cost function subject to linear inequalty constraints and nonlinear equality constraints....

Online Sequential Projection Vector Machine with Adaptive Data Mean Update.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lin; Jia, Ji-Ting; Zhang, Qiong; Deng, Wan-Yu; Wei, Wei

2016-01-01

We propose a simple online learning algorithm especial for high-dimensional data. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential projection vector machine (OSPVM) which derives from projection vector machine and can learn from data in one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk mode. In OSPVM, data centering, dimension reduction, and neural network training are integrated seamlessly. In particular, the model parameters including (1) the projection vectors for dimension reduction, (2) the input weights, biases, and output weights, and (3) the number of hidden nodes can be updated simultaneously. Moreover, only one parameter, the number of hidden nodes, needs to be determined manually, and this makes it easy for use in real applications. Performance comparison was made on various high-dimensional classification problems for OSPVM against other fast online algorithms including budgeted stochastic gradient descent (BSGD) approach, adaptive multihyperplane machine (AMM), primal estimated subgradient solver (Pegasos), online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM), and SVD + OSELM (feature selection based on SVD is performed before OSELM). The results obtained demonstrated the superior generalization performance and efficiency of the OSPVM.

Online Sequential Projection Vector Machine with Adaptive Data Mean Update

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Chen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a simple online learning algorithm especial for high-dimensional data. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential projection vector machine (OSPVM which derives from projection vector machine and can learn from data in one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk mode. In OSPVM, data centering, dimension reduction, and neural network training are integrated seamlessly. In particular, the model parameters including (1 the projection vectors for dimension reduction, (2 the input weights, biases, and output weights, and (3 the number of hidden nodes can be updated simultaneously. Moreover, only one parameter, the number of hidden nodes, needs to be determined manually, and this makes it easy for use in real applications. Performance comparison was made on various high-dimensional classification problems for OSPVM against other fast online algorithms including budgeted stochastic gradient descent (BSGD approach, adaptive multihyperplane machine (AMM, primal estimated subgradient solver (Pegasos, online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM, and SVD + OSELM (feature selection based on SVD is performed before OSELM. The results obtained demonstrated the superior generalization performance and efficiency of the OSPVM.

Simulation modeling analysis of sequential relations among therapeutic alliance, symptoms, and adherence to child-centered play therapy between a child with autism spectrum disorder and two therapists.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, Geoff; Chung, Hyewon; Fischel, Leah; Athey-Lloyd, Laura

2017-07-01

This study examined the sequential relations among three pertinent variables in child psychotherapy: therapeutic alliance (TA) (including ruptures and repairs), autism symptoms, and adherence to child-centered play therapy (CCPT) process. A 2-year CCPT of a 6-year-old Caucasian boy diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder was conducted weekly with two doctoral-student therapists, working consecutively for 1 year each, in a university-based community mental-health clinic. Sessions were video-recorded and coded using the Child Psychotherapy Process Q-Set (CPQ), a measure of the TA, and an autism symptom measure. Sequential relations among these variables were examined using simulation modeling analysis (SMA). In Therapist 1's treatment, unexpectedly, autism symptoms decreased three sessions after a rupture occurred in the therapeutic dyad. In Therapist 2's treatment, adherence to CCPT process increased 2 weeks after a repair occurred in the therapeutic dyad. The TA decreased 1 week after autism symptoms increased. Finally, adherence to CCPT process decreased 1 week after autism symptoms increased. The authors concluded that (1) sequential relations differ by therapist even though the child remains constant, (2) therapeutic ruptures can have an unexpected effect on autism symptoms, and (3) changes in autism symptoms can precede as well as follow changes in process variables.

A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monique Stinson

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Closas Pau

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis)

2010-01-01

textabstractWe present an approach for analyzing market shares and products price elasticities based on large datasets containing aggregate sales data for many products, several markets and for relatively long time periods. We consider the recently proposed Bayesian approach of Jiang et al [Jiang,

Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kortbek, Jacob; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Gammelmark, Kim Løkke

2008-01-01

A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective is to im......A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective...... is to improve and obtain a more range independent lateral resolution compared to conventional dynamic receive focusing (DRF) without compromising frame rate. SASB is a two-stage procedure using two separate beamformers. First a set of Bmode image lines using a single focal point in both transmit and receive...... is stored. The second stage applies the focused image lines from the first stage as input data. The SASB method has been investigated using simulations in Field II and by off-line processing of data acquired with a commercial scanner. The performance of SASB with a static image object is compared with DRF...

Evaluation Using Sequential Trials Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Mark E.; Ralls, Stephen A.

1986-01-01

Although dental school faculty as well as practitioners are interested in evaluating products and procedures used in clinical practice, research design and statistical analysis can sometimes pose problems. Sequential trials methods provide an analytical structure that is both easy to use and statistically valid. (Author/MLW)

Efficient Mining and Detection of Sequential Intrusion Patterns for Network Intrusion Detection Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Shyu, Mei-Ling; Huang, Zifang; Luo, Hongli

In recent years, pervasive computing infrastructures have greatly improved the interaction between human and system. As we put more reliance on these computing infrastructures, we also face threats of network intrusion and/or any new forms of undesirable IT-based activities. Hence, network security has become an extremely important issue, which is closely connected with homeland security, business transactions, and people's daily life. Accurate and efficient intrusion detection technologies are required to safeguard the network systems and the critical information transmitted in the network systems. In this chapter, a novel network intrusion detection framework for mining and detecting sequential intrusion patterns is proposed. The proposed framework consists of a Collateral Representative Subspace Projection Modeling (C-RSPM) component for supervised classification, and an inter-transactional association rule mining method based on Layer Divided Modeling (LDM) for temporal pattern analysis. Experiments on the KDD99 data set and the traffic data set generated by a private LAN testbed show promising results with high detection rates, low processing time, and low false alarm rates in mining and detecting sequential intrusion detections.

The impact of eyewitness identifications from simultaneous and sequential lineups.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Daniel B

2007-10-01

Recent guidelines in the US allow either simultaneous or sequential lineups to be used for eyewitness identification. This paper investigates how potential jurors weight the probative value of the different outcomes from both of these types of lineups. Participants (n=340) were given a description of a case that included some exonerating and some incriminating evidence. There was either a simultaneous or a sequential lineup. Depending on the condition, an eyewitness chose the suspect, chose a filler, or made no identification. The participant had to judge the guilt of the suspect and decide whether to render a guilty verdict. For both simultaneous and sequential lineups an identification had a large effect,increasing the probability of a guilty verdict. There were no reliable effects detected between making no identification and identifying a filler. The effect sizes were similar for simultaneous and sequential lineups. These findings are important for judges and other legal professionals to know for trials involving lineup identifications.

Properties of simultaneous and sequential two-nucleon transfer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinkston, W.T.; Satchler, G.R.

1982-01-01

Approximate forms of the first- and second-order distorted-wave Born amplitudes are used to study the overall structure, particularly the selection rules, of the amplitudes for simultaneous and sequential transfer of two nucleons. The role of the spin-state assumed for the intermediate deuterons in sequential (t, p) reactions is stressed. The similarity of one-step and two-step amplitudes for (α, d) reactions is exhibited, and the consequent absence of any obvious J-dependence in their interference is noted. (orig.)

Sequential contrast-enhanced MR imaging of the penis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, K; De Mouy, E H; Lee, B E

1994-04-01

To determine the enhancement patterns of the penis at magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Sequential contrast material-enhanced MR images of the penis in a flaccid state were obtained in 16 volunteers (12 with normal penile function and four with erectile dysfunction). Subjects with normal erectile function showed gradual and centrifugal enhancement of the corpora cavernosa, while those with erectile dysfunction showed poor enhancement with abnormal progression. Sequential contrast-enhanced MR imaging provides additional morphologic information for the evaluation of erectile dysfunction.

Synthesizing genetic sequential logic circuit with clock pulse generator.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Chia-Hua; Lin, Chun-Liang

2014-05-28

Rhythmic clock widely occurs in biological systems which controls several aspects of cell physiology. For the different cell types, it is supplied with various rhythmic frequencies. How to synthesize a specific clock signal is a preliminary but a necessary step to further development of a biological computer in the future. This paper presents a genetic sequential logic circuit with a clock pulse generator based on a synthesized genetic oscillator, which generates a consecutive clock signal whose frequency is an inverse integer multiple to that of the genetic oscillator. An analogous electronic waveform-shaping circuit is constructed by a series of genetic buffers to shape logic high/low levels of an oscillation input in a basic sinusoidal cycle and generate a pulse-width-modulated (PWM) output with various duty cycles. By controlling the threshold level of the genetic buffer, a genetic clock pulse signal with its frequency consistent to the genetic oscillator is synthesized. A synchronous genetic counter circuit based on the topology of the digital sequential logic circuit is triggered by the clock pulse to synthesize the clock signal with an inverse multiple frequency to the genetic oscillator. The function acts like a frequency divider in electronic circuits which plays a key role in the sequential logic circuit with specific operational frequency. A cascaded genetic logic circuit generating clock pulse signals is proposed. Based on analogous implement of digital sequential logic circuits, genetic sequential logic circuits can be constructed by the proposed approach to generate various clock signals from an oscillation signal.

Sequential weak continuity of null Lagrangians at the boundary

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kalamajska, A.; Kraemer, S.; Kružík, Martin

2014-01-01

Roč. 49, 3/4 (2014), s. 1263-1278 ISSN 0944-2669 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/10/0357 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : null Lagrangians * nonhomogeneous nonlinear mappings * sequential weak/in measure continuity Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/MTR/kruzik-sequential weak continuity of null lagrangians at the boundary.pdf

Retailers and consumers in sequential auctions of collectibles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vincent Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie; Chanel, Olivier

2007-01-01

We analyse an independent private-value model, where heterogeneous bidders compete for objects sold in sequential second-price auctions. In this heterogeneous game, bidders may have differently distributed valuations, and some have multi-unit demand with decreasing marginal values (retailers......); others have a specific single-unit demand (consumers). By examining equilibrium bidding strategies and price sequences, we show that the presence of consumers leads to more aggressive bidding from the retailers on average and heterogeneous bidders is a plausible explanation of the price decline effect....... The study of the expected revenue of the seller confirms the interest of auctioneers in inviting different types of bidders...

Sequential and simultaneous SLAR block adjustment. [spline function analysis for mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Leberl, F.

1975-01-01

Two sequential methods of planimetric SLAR (Side Looking Airborne Radar) block adjustment, with and without splines, and three simultaneous methods based on the principles of least squares are evaluated. A limited experiment with simulated SLAR images indicates that sequential block formation with splines followed by external interpolative adjustment is superior to the simultaneous methods such as planimetric block adjustment with similarity transformations. The use of the sequential block formation is recommended, since it represents an inexpensive tool for satisfactory point determination from SLAR images.

[Sequential prescriptions: Arguments for a change of therapeutic patterns in treatment resistant depressions].

Science.gov (United States)

Allouche, G

2016-02-01

and recurrences, in antidepressant maintenance. These data support the interest of therapeutic strategies based on evolutionary criteria. Sequential models inspired by statistical methods may incorporate the effects of a future treatment by measuring the current one. Copyright © 2015 L’Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

OpenAIRE

Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

2012-01-01

Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

Strong-field non-sequential ionization: The vector momentum distribution of multiply charged Ne ions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rottke, H.; Trump, C.; Wittmann, M.; Korn, G.; Becker, W.; Hoffmann, K.; Sandner, W.; Moshammer, R.; Feuerstein, B.; Dorn, A.; Schroeter, C.D.; Ullrich, J.; Schmitt, W.

2000-01-01

COLTRIMS (COLd Target Recoil-Ion Momentum Spectroscopy) was used to measure the vector momentum distribution of Ne n+ (n=1,2,3) ions formed in ultrashort (30 fsec) high-intensity (≅10 15 W/cm 2 ) laser pulses with center wavelength at 795 nm. To a high degree of accuracy the length of the Ne n+ ion momentum vector is equal to the length of the total momentum vector of the n photoelectrons released, with both vectors pointing into opposite directions. At a light intensity where non-sequential ionization of the atom dominates the Ne 2+ and Ne 3+ momentum distributions show distinct maxima at 4.0 a.u. and 7.5 a.u. along the polarization axis of the linearly polarized light beam. First, this is a clear signature of non-sequential multiple ionization. Second, it indicates that instantaneous emission of two (or more) electrons at electric field strength maxima of the light wave can be ruled out as main mechanism of non-sequential strong-field multiple ionization. In contrast, this experimental result is in accordance with the kinematical constraints of the 'rescattering model'

A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgård, Christian Hansen; Jovicic, Goran

2003-01-01

The passenger travel model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice nested logit model in which the sub-models - i.e. generation, distribution and mode choice models - are connected via measure of accessibility. The model includes in its structure a large set of explanatory variables at all three...... aims to provide a detailed description of the model, which can be used as a guide to the future development of similar models. Also, an application of the model in a study of road pricing in denmark is described. This gives the reader an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled as well...

Sequential Extraction Versus Comprehensive Characterization of Heavy Metal Species in Brownfield Soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahlin, Cheryl L.; Williamson, Connie A.; Collins, W. Keith; Dahlin, David C.

2002-06-01

The applicability of sequential extraction as a means to determine species of heavy-metals was examined by a study on soil samples from two Superfund sites: the National Lead Company site in Pedricktown, NJ, and the Roebling Steel, Inc., site in Florence, NJ. Data from a standard sequential extraction procedure were compared to those from a comprehensive study that combined optical- and scanning-electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and chemical analyses. The study shows that larger particles of contaminants, encapsulated contaminants, and/or man-made materials such as slags, coke, metals, and plastics are subject to incasement, non-selectivity, and redistribution in the sequential extraction process. The results indicate that standard sequential extraction procedures that were developed for characterizing species of contaminants in river sediments may be unsuitable for stand-alone determinative evaluations of contaminant species in industrial-site materials. However, if employed as part of a comprehensive, site-specific characterization study, sequential extraction could be a very useful tool.

Sequential Classification of Palm Gestures Based on A* Algorithm and MLP Neural Network for Quadrocopter Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wodziński Marek

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an alternative approach to the sequential data classification, based on traditional machine learning algorithms (neural networks, principal component analysis, multivariate Gaussian anomaly detector and finding the shortest path in a directed acyclic graph, using A* algorithm with a regression-based heuristic. Palm gestures were used as an example of the sequential data and a quadrocopter was the controlled object. The study includes creation of a conceptual model and practical construction of a system using the GPU to ensure the realtime operation. The results present the classification accuracy of chosen gestures and comparison of the computation time between the CPU- and GPU-based solutions.

Imitation of the sequential structure of actions by chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

Science.gov (United States)

Whiten, A

1998-09-01

Imitation was studied experimentally by allowing chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) to observe alternative patterns of actions for opening a specially designed "artificial fruit." Like problematic foods primates deal with naturally, with the test fruit several defenses had to be removed to gain access to an edible core, but the sequential order and method of defense removal could be systematically varied. Each subject repeatedly observed 1 of 2 alternative techniques for removing each defense and 1 of 2 alternative sequential patterns of defense removal. Imitation of sequential organization emerged after repeated cycles of demonstration and attempts at opening the fruit. Imitation in chimpanzees may thus have some power to produce cultural convergence, counter to the supposition that individual learning processes corrupt copied actions. Imitation of sequential organization was accompanied by imitation of some aspects of the techniques that made up the sequence.

Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

OpenAIRE

David Levinson; Wei Chen

2007-01-01

Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

On the effect of response transformations in sequential parameter optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Tobias; Wessing, Simon

2012-01-01

Parameter tuning of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) is attracting more and more interest. In particular, the sequential parameter optimization (SPO) framework for the model-assisted tuning of stochastic optimizers has resulted in established parameter tuning algorithms. In this paper, we enhance the SPO framework by introducing transformation steps before the response aggregation and before the actual modeling. Based on design-of-experiments techniques, we empirically analyze the effect of integrating different transformations. We show that in particular, a rank transformation of the responses provides significant improvements. A deeper analysis of the resulting models and additional experiments with adaptive procedures indicates that the rank and the Box-Cox transformation are able to improve the properties of the resultant distributions with respect to symmetry and normality of the residuals. Moreover, model-based effect plots document a higher discriminatory power obtained by the rank transformation.

Sequential determination of important ecotoxic radionuclides in nuclear waste samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilohuscin, J.

2016-01-01

In the dissertation thesis we focused on the development and optimization of a sequential determination method for radionuclides 93 Zr, 94 Nb, 99 Tc and 126 Sn, employing extraction chromatography sorbents TEVA (R) Resin and Anion Exchange Resin, supplied by Eichrom Industries. Prior to the attestation of sequential separation of these proposed radionuclides from radioactive waste samples, a unique sequential procedure of 90 Sr, 239 Pu, 241 Am separation from urine matrices was tried, using molecular recognition sorbents of AnaLig (R) series and extraction chromatography sorbent DGA (R) Resin. On these experiments, four various sorbents were continually used for separation, including PreFilter Resin sorbent, which removes interfering organic materials present in raw urine. After the acquisition of positive results of this sequential procedure followed experiments with a 126 Sn separation using TEVA (R) Resin and Anion Exchange Resin sorbents. Radiochemical recoveries obtained from samples of radioactive evaporate concentrates and sludge showed high efficiency of the separation, while values of 126 Sn were under the minimum detectable activities MDA. Activity of 126 Sn was determined after ingrowth of daughter nuclide 126m Sb on HPGe gamma detector, with minimal contamination of gamma interfering radionuclides with decontamination factors (D f ) higher then 1400 for 60 Co and 47000 for 137 Cs. Based on the acquired experiments and results of these separation procedures, a complex method of sequential separation of 93 Zr, 94 Nb, 99 Tc and 126 Sn was proposed, which included optimization steps similar to those used in previous parts of the dissertation work. Application of the sequential separation method for sorbents TEVA (R) Resin and Anion Exchange Resin on real samples of radioactive wastes provided satisfactory results and an economical, time sparing, efficient method. (author)

A solution for automatic parallelization of sequential assembly code

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kovačević Đorđe

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Since modern multicore processors can execute existing sequential programs only on a single core, there is a strong need for automatic parallelization of program code. Relying on existing algorithms, this paper describes one new software solution tool for parallelization of sequential assembly code. The main goal of this paper is to develop the parallelizator which reads sequential assembler code and at the output provides parallelized code for MIPS processor with multiple cores. The idea is the following: the parser translates assembler input file to program objects suitable for further processing. After that the static single assignment is done. Based on the data flow graph, the parallelization algorithm separates instructions on different cores. Once sequential code is parallelized by the parallelization algorithm, registers are allocated with the algorithm for linear allocation, and the result at the end of the program is distributed assembler code on each of the cores. In the paper we evaluate the speedup of the matrix multiplication example, which was processed by the parallelizator of assembly code. The result is almost linear speedup of code execution, which increases with the number of cores. The speed up on the two cores is 1.99, while on 16 cores the speed up is 13.88.

The economic, environmental and public health impacts of new power plants: a sequential inter industry model integrated with GIS data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avelino, Andre F.T.; Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.; Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FEA/USP), SE (Brazil). Fac. de Administracao e Contabilidade

2010-07-01

The electrical sector is responsible for a considerable amount of greenhouse gases emissions worldwide, but also the one in which modern society depends the most for maintenance of quality of life as well as the functioning of economic and social activities. Invariably, even CO2 emission-free power plants have some indirect environmental impacts due to the economic effects they produce during their life cycle (construction, O and M and decommissioning). Thus, sustainability issues should be always considered in energy planning, by evaluating the balance of positive/negative externalities on different areas of the country. This study aims to introduce a social-environmental economic model, based on a Regional Sequential Inter industry Model (SIM) integrated with geoprocessing data, in order to identify economic, pollution and public health impacts in state level for energy planning analysis. The model is based on the Impact Pathway Approach Methodology, using geoprocessing to locate social-environmental variables for dispersion and health evaluations. The final goal is to provide an auxiliary tool for policy makers to assess energy planning scenarios in Brazil. (author)

Documentscape: Intertextuality, Sequentiality & Autonomy at Work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Lars Rune; Bjørn, Pernille

2014-01-01

On the basis of an ethnographic field study, this article introduces the concept of documentscape to the analysis of document-centric work practices. The concept of documentscape refers to the entire ensemble of documents in their mutual intertextual interlocking. Providing empirical data from...... a global software development case, we show how hierarchical structures and sequentiality across the interlocked documents are critical to how actors make sense of the work of others and what to do next in a geographically distributed setting. Furthermore, we found that while each document is created...... as part of a quasi-sequential order, this characteristic does not make the document, as a single entity, into a stable object. Instead, we found that the documents were malleable and dynamic while suspended in intertextual structures. Our concept of documentscape points to how the hierarchical structure...

Assessing potential forest and steel inter-industry residue utilisation by sequential chemical extraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makela, M.

2012-10-15

Traditional process industries in Finland and abroad are facing an emerging waste disposal problem due recent regulatory development which has increased the costs of landfill disposal and difficulty in acquiring new sites. For large manufacturers, such as the forest and ferrous metals industries, symbiotic cooperation of formerly separate industrial sectors could enable the utilisation waste-labeled residues in manufacturing novel residue-derived materials suitable for replacing commercial virgin alternatives. Such efforts would allow transforming the current linear resource use and disposal models to more cyclical ones and thus attain savings in valuable materials and energy resources. The work described in this thesis was aimed at utilising forest and carbon steel industry residues in the experimental manufacture of novel residue-derived materials technically and environmentally suitable for amending agricultural or forest soil properties. Single and sequential chemical extractions were used to compare the pseudo-total concentrations of trace elements in the manufactured amendment samples to relevant Finnish statutory limit values for the use of fertilizer products and to assess respective potential availability under natural conditions. In addition, the quality of analytical work and the suitability of sequential extraction in the analysis of an industrial solid sample were respectively evaluated through the analysis of a certified reference material and by X-ray diffraction of parallel sequential extraction residues. According to the acquired data, the incorporation of both forest and steel industry residues, such as fly ashes, lime wastes, green liquor dregs, sludges and slags, led to amendment liming capacities (34.9-38.3%, Ca equiv., d.w.) comparable to relevant commercial alternatives. Only the first experimental samples showed increased concentrations of pseudo-total cadmium and chromium, of which the latter was specified as the trivalent Cr(III). Based on

PARTICLE FILTERING WITH SEQUENTIAL PARAMETER LEARNING FOR NONLINEAR BOLD fMRI SIGNALS.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Jing; Wang, Michelle Yongmei

Analyzing the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) effect in the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is typically based on recent ground-breaking time series analysis techniques. This work represents a significant improvement over existing approaches to system identification using nonlinear hemodynamic models. It is important for three reasons. First, instead of using linearized approximations of the dynamics, we present a nonlinear filtering based on the sequential Monte Carlo method to capture the inherent nonlinearities in the physiological system. Second, we simultaneously estimate the hidden physiological states and the system parameters through particle filtering with sequential parameter learning to fully take advantage of the dynamic information of the BOLD signals. Third, during the unknown static parameter learning, we employ the low-dimensional sufficient statistics for efficiency and avoiding potential degeneration of the parameters. The performance of the proposed method is validated using both the simulated data and real BOLD fMRI data.

Sequential series for nuclear reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Izumo, Ko

1975-01-01

A new time-dependent treatment of nuclear reactions is given, in which the wave function of compound nucleus is expanded by a sequential series of the reaction processes. The wave functions of the sequential series form another complete set of compound nucleus at the limit Δt→0. It is pointed out that the wave function is characterized by the quantities: the number of degrees of freedom of motion n, the period of the motion (Poincare cycle) tsub(n), the delay time t sub(nμ) and the relaxation time tausub(n) to the equilibrium of compound nucleus, instead of the usual quantum number lambda, the energy eigenvalue Esub(lambda) and the total width GAMMAsub(lambda) of resonance levels, respectively. The transition matrix elements and the yields of nuclear reactions also become the functions of time given by the Fourier transform of the usual ones. The Poincare cycles of compound nuclei are compared with the observed correlations among resonance levels, which are about 10 -17 --10 -16 sec for medium and heavy nuclei and about 10 -20 sec for the intermediate resonances. (auth.)

Sequentially firing neurons confer flexible timing in neural pattern generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, Alexander; Ermentrout, Bard

2011-01-01

Neuronal networks exhibit a variety of complex spatiotemporal patterns that include sequential activity, synchrony, and wavelike dynamics. Inhibition is the primary means through which such patterns are implemented. This behavior is dependent on both the intrinsic dynamics of the individual neurons as well as the connectivity patterns. Many neural circuits consist of networks of smaller subcircuits (motifs) that are coupled together to form the larger system. In this paper, we consider a particularly simple motif, comprising purely inhibitory interactions, which generates sequential periodic dynamics. We first describe the dynamics of the single motif both for general balanced coupling (all cells receive the same number and strength of inputs) and then for a specific class of balanced networks: circulant systems. We couple these motifs together to form larger networks. We use the theory of weak coupling to derive phase models which, themselves, have a certain structure and symmetry. We show that this structure endows the coupled system with the ability to produce arbitrary timing relationships between symmetrically coupled motifs and that the phase relationships are robust over a wide range of frequencies. The theory is applicable to many other systems in biology and physics.

A node linkage approach for sequential pattern mining.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osvaldo Navarro

Full Text Available Sequential Pattern Mining is a widely addressed problem in data mining, with applications such as analyzing Web usage, examining purchase behavior, and text mining, among others. Nevertheless, with the dramatic increase in data volume, the current approaches prove inefficient when dealing with large input datasets, a large number of different symbols and low minimum supports. In this paper, we propose a new sequential pattern mining algorithm, which follows a pattern-growth scheme to discover sequential patterns. Unlike most pattern growth algorithms, our approach does not build a data structure to represent the input dataset, but instead accesses the required sequences through pseudo-projection databases, achieving better runtime and reducing memory requirements. Our algorithm traverses the search space in a depth-first fashion and only preserves in memory a pattern node linkage and the pseudo-projections required for the branch being explored at the time. Experimental results show that our new approach, the Node Linkage Depth-First Traversal algorithm (NLDFT, has better performance and scalability in comparison with state of the art algorithms.

Sequential Change-Point Detection via Online Convex Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Cao

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on sequential likelihood ratios with non-anticipating estimators constructed using online convex optimization algorithms such as online mirror descent, which provides a more versatile approach to tackling complex situations where recursive maximum likelihood estimators cannot be found. When the underlying distributions belong to a exponential family and the estimators satisfy the logarithm regret property, we show that this approach is nearly second-order asymptotically optimal. This means that the upper bound for the false alarm rate of the algorithm (measured by the average-run-length meets the lower bound asymptotically up to a log-log factor when the threshold tends to infinity. Our proof is achieved by making a connection between sequential change-point and online convex optimization and leveraging the logarithmic regret bound property of online mirror descent algorithm. Numerical and real data examples validate our theory.

Sequential decoders for large MIMO systems

KAUST Repository

Ali, Konpal S.; Abediseid, Walid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2014-01-01

the Sequential Decoder using the Fano Algorithm for large MIMO systems. A parameter called the bias is varied to attain different performance-complexity trade-offs. Low values of the bias result in excellent performance but at the expense of high complexity

Sequential inference as a mode of cognition and its correlates in fronto-parietal and hippocampal brain regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas H B FitzGerald

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Normative models of human cognition often appeal to Bayesian filtering, which provides optimal online estimates of unknown or hidden states of the world, based on previous observations. However, in many cases it is necessary to optimise beliefs about sequences of states rather than just the current state. Importantly, Bayesian filtering and sequential inference strategies make different predictions about beliefs and subsequent choices, rendering them behaviourally dissociable. Taking data from a probabilistic reversal task we show that subjects' choices provide strong evidence that they are representing short sequences of states. Between-subject measures of this implicit sequential inference strategy had a neurobiological underpinning and correlated with grey matter density in prefrontal and parietal cortex, as well as the hippocampus. Our findings provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence for sequential inference in human cognition, and by exploiting between-subject variation in this measure we provide pointers to its neuronal substrates.

Modeling Intercity Mode Choice and Airport Choice in the United States

OpenAIRE

Ashiabor, Senanu Y.

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviati...

Effect of anaerobic digestion on sequential pyrolysis kinetics of organic solid wastes using thermogravimetric analysis and distributed activation energy model.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaowei; Mei, Qingqing; Dai, Xiaohu; Ding, Guoji

2017-03-01

Thermogravimetric analysis, Gaussian-fit-peak model (GFPM), and distributed activation energy model (DAEM) were firstly used to explore the effect of anaerobic digestion on sequential pyrolysis kinetic of four organic solid wastes (OSW). Results showed that the OSW weight loss mainly occurred in the second pyrolysis stage relating to organic matter decomposition. Compared with raw substrate, the weight loss of corresponding digestate was lower in the range of 180-550°C, but was higher in 550-900°C. GFPM analysis revealed that organic components volatized at peak temperatures of 188-263, 373-401 and 420-462°C had a faster degradation rate than those at 274-327°C during anaerobic digestion. DAEM analysis showed that anaerobic digestion had discrepant effects on activation energy for four OSW pyrolysis, possibly because of their different organic composition. It requires further investigation for the special organic matter, i.e., protein-like and carbohydrate-like groups, to confirm the assumption. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comment on: "Cell Therapy for Heart Disease: Trial Sequential Analyses of Two Cochrane Reviews"

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Castellini, Greta; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Gluud, Christian

2017-01-01

Trial Sequential Analysis is a frequentist method to help researchers control the risks of random errors in meta-analyses (1). Fisher and colleagues used Trial Sequential Analysis on cell therapy for heart diseases (2). The present article discusses the usefulness of Trial Sequential Analysis and...

Efficient sequential and parallel algorithms for record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamun, Abdullah-Al; Mi, Tian; Aseltine, Robert; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar

2014-01-01

Integrating data from multiple sources is a crucial and challenging problem. Even though there exist numerous algorithms for record linkage or deduplication, they suffer from either large time needs or restrictions on the number of datasets that they can integrate. In this paper we report efficient sequential and parallel algorithms for record linkage which handle any number of datasets and outperform previous algorithms. Our algorithms employ hierarchical clustering algorithms as the basis. A key idea that we use is radix sorting on certain attributes to eliminate identical records before any further processing. Another novel idea is to form a graph that links similar records and find the connected components. Our sequential and parallel algorithms have been tested on a real dataset of 1,083,878 records and synthetic datasets ranging in size from 50,000 to 9,000,000 records. Our sequential algorithm runs at least two times faster, for any dataset, than the previous best-known algorithm, the two-phase algorithm using faster computation of the edit distance (TPA (FCED)). The speedups obtained by our parallel algorithm are almost linear. For example, we get a speedup of 7.5 with 8 cores (residing in a single node), 14.1 with 16 cores (residing in two nodes), and 26.4 with 32 cores (residing in four nodes). We have compared the performance of our sequential algorithm with TPA (FCED) and found that our algorithm outperforms the previous one. The accuracy is the same as that of this previous best-known algorithm.

Robust sequential learning of feedforward neural networks in the presence of heavy-tailed noise.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuković, Najdan; Miljković, Zoran

2015-03-01

Feedforward neural networks (FFNN) are among the most used neural networks for modeling of various nonlinear problems in engineering. In sequential and especially real time processing all neural networks models fail when faced with outliers. Outliers are found across a wide range of engineering problems. Recent research results in the field have shown that to avoid overfitting or divergence of the model, new approach is needed especially if FFNN is to run sequentially or in real time. To accommodate limitations of FFNN when training data contains a certain number of outliers, this paper presents new learning algorithm based on improvement of conventional extended Kalman filter (EKF). Extended Kalman filter robust to outliers (EKF-OR) is probabilistic generative model in which measurement noise covariance is not constant; the sequence of noise measurement covariance is modeled as stochastic process over the set of symmetric positive-definite matrices in which prior is modeled as inverse Wishart distribution. In each iteration EKF-OR simultaneously estimates noise estimates and current best estimate of FFNN parameters. Bayesian framework enables one to mathematically derive expressions, while analytical intractability of the Bayes' update step is solved by using structured variational approximation. All mathematical expressions in the paper are derived using the first principles. Extensive experimental study shows that FFNN trained with developed learning algorithm, achieves low prediction error and good generalization quality regardless of outliers' presence in training data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE BULK TRITIUM SHIPPING PACKAGE SUBJECTED TO CLOSURE TORQUES AND SEQUENTIAL IMPACTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, T; Paul Blanton, P; Kurt Eberl, K

2007-01-01

This paper presents a finite-element technique to simulate the structural responses and to evaluate the cumulative damage of a radioactive material packaging requiring bolt closure-tightening torque and subjected to the scenarios of the Hypothetical Accident Conditions (HAC) defined in the Code of Federal Regulations Title 10 part 71 (10CFR71). Existing finite-element methods for modeling closure stresses from bolt pre-load are not readily adaptable to dynamic analyses. The HAC events are required to occur sequentially per 10CFR71 and thus the evaluation of the cumulative damage is desirable. Generally, each HAC event is analyzed separately and the cumulative damage is partially addressed by superposition. This results in relying on additional physical testing to comply with 10CFR71 requirements for assessment of cumulative damage. The proposed technique utilizes the combination of kinematic constraints, rigid-body motions and structural deformations to overcome some of the difficulties encountered in modeling the effect of cumulative damage. This methodology provides improved numerical solutions in compliance with the 10CFR71 requirements for sequential HAC tests. Analyses were performed for the Bulk Tritium Shipping Package (BTSP) designed by Savannah River National Laboratory to demonstrate the applications of the technique. The methodology proposed simulates the closure bolt torque preload followed by the sequential HAC events, the 30-foot drop and the 30-foot dynamic crush. The analytical results will be compared to the package test data

Fault detection in multiply-redundant measurement systems via sequential testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ray, A.

1988-01-01

The theory and application of a sequential test procedure for fault detection and isolation. The test procedure is suited for development of intelligent instrumentation in strategic processes like aircraft and nuclear plants where redundant measurements are usually available for individual critical variables. The test procedure consists of: (1) a generic redundancy management procedure which is essentially independent of the fault detection strategy and measurement noise statistics, and (2) a modified version of sequential probability ratio test algorithm for fault detection and isolation, which functions within the framework of this redundancy management procedure. The sequential test procedure is suitable for real-time applications using commercially available microcomputers and its efficacy has been verified by online fault detection in an operating nuclear reactor. 15 references

A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran-Duy, An; Boonen, Annelies; van de Laar, Mart A F J; Franke, Angelinus C; Severens, Johan L

2011-12-01

To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug efficacy was modelled as changes in disease activity (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI)) and functional status (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI)), which were linked to costs and health utility using statistical models fitted based on an observational AS cohort. Published clinical data were used to estimate drug efficacy and time to events. Two strategies were compared: (1) five available non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (strategy 1) and (2) same as strategy 1 plus two tumour necrosis factor α inhibitors (strategy 2). 13,000 patients were followed up individually until death. For probability sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1000 sets of parameters sampled from the appropriate probability distributions. The models successfully generated valid data on treatments, BASDAI, BASFI, utility, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs at time points with intervals of 1-3 months during the simulation length of 70 years. Incremental cost per QALY gained in strategy 2 compared with strategy 1 was €35,186. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000, it was 99.9% certain that strategy 2 was cost-effective. The modelling framework provides great flexibility to implement complex algorithms representing treatment selection, disease progression and changes in costs and utilities over time of patients with AS. Results obtained from the simulation are plausible.

Sequential designs for sensitivity analysis of functional inputs in computer experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fruth, J.; Roustant, O.; Kuhnt, S.

2015-01-01

Computer experiments are nowadays commonly used to analyze industrial processes aiming at achieving a wanted outcome. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on the response variable. In this work we focus on sensitivity analysis of a scalar-valued output of a time-consuming computer code depending on scalar and functional input parameters. We investigate a sequential methodology, based on piecewise constant functions and sequential bifurcation, which is both economical and fully interpretable. The new approach is applied to a sheet metal forming problem in three sequential steps, resulting in new insights into the behavior of the forming process over time. - Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis method for functional and scalar inputs is presented. • We focus on the discovery of most influential parts of the functional domain. • We investigate economical sequential methodology based on piecewise constant functions. • Normalized sensitivity indices are introduced and investigated theoretically. • Successful application to sheet metal forming on two functional inputs

Tibetan Microblog Emotional Analysis Based on Sequential Model in Online Social Platforms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lirong Qiu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the development of microblogs, selling and buying appear in online social platforms such as Sina Weibo and Wechat. Besides Mandarin, Tibetan language is also used to describe products and customers’ opinions. In this paper, we are interested in analyzing the emotions of Tibetan microblogs, which are helpful to understand opinions and product reviews for Tibetan customers. It is challenging since existing studies paid little attention to Tibetan language. Our key idea is to express Tibetan microblogs as vectors and then classify them. To express microblogs more fully, we select two kinds of features, which are sequential features and semantic features. In addition, our experimental results on the Sina Weibo dataset clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of feature selection and the efficiency of our classification method.

Sequential Monte Carlo filter for state estimation of LiFePO4 batteries based on an online updated model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiahao; Klee Barillas, Joaquin; Guenther, Clemens; Danzer, Michael A.

2014-02-01

Battery state monitoring is one of the key techniques in battery management systems e.g. in electric vehicles. An accurate estimation can help to improve the system performance and to prolong the battery remaining useful life. Main challenges for the state estimation for LiFePO4 batteries are the flat characteristic of open-circuit-voltage over battery state of charge (SOC) and the existence of hysteresis phenomena. Classical estimation approaches like Kalman filtering show limitations to handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian error distribution problems. In addition, uncertainties in the battery model parameters must be taken into account to describe the battery degradation. In this paper, a novel model-based method combining a Sequential Monte Carlo filter with adaptive control to determine the cell SOC and its electric impedance is presented. The applicability of this dual estimator is verified using measurement data acquired from a commercial LiFePO4 cell. Due to a better handling of the hysteresis problem, results show the benefits of the proposed method against the estimation with an Extended Kalman filter.

The biological effects of quadripolar radiofrequency sequential application: a human experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicoletti, Giovanni; Cornaglia, Antonia Icaro; Faga, Angela; Scevola, Silvia

2014-10-01

An experimental study was conducted to assess the effectiveness and safety of an innovative quadripolar variable electrode configuration radiofrequency device with objective measurements in an ex vivo and in vivo human experimental model. Nonablative radiofrequency applications are well-established anti-ageing procedures for cosmetic skin tightening. The study was performed in two steps: ex vivo and in vivo assessments. In the ex vivo assessments the radiofrequency applications were performed on human full-thickness skin and subcutaneous tissue specimens harvested during surgery for body contouring. In the in vivo assessments the applications were performed on two volunteer patients scheduled for body contouring surgery at the end of the study. The assessment methods were: clinical examination and medical photography, temperature measurement with thermal imaging scan, and light microscopy histological examination. The ex vivo assessments allowed for identification of the effective safety range for human application. The in vivo assessments allowed for demonstration of the biological effects of sequential radiofrequency applications. After a course of radiofrequency applications, the collagen fibers underwent an immediate heat-induced rearrangement and were partially denaturated and progressively metabolized by the macrophages. An overall thickening and spatial rearrangement was appreciated both in the collagen and elastic fibers, the latter displaying a juvenile reticular pattern. A late onset in the macrophage activation after sequential radiofrequency applications was appreciated. Our data confirm the effectiveness of sequential radiofrequency applications in obtaining attenuation of the skin wrinkles by an overall skin tightening.

OPTIMIZATION OF AGGREGATION AND SEQUENTIAL-PARALLEL EXECUTION MODES OF INTERSECTING OPERATION SETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. М. Levin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model and a method for the problem of optimization of aggregation and of sequential- parallel execution modes of intersecting operation sets are proposed. The proposed method is based on the two-level decomposition scheme. At the top level the variant of aggregation for groups of operations is selected, and at the lower level the execution modes of operations are optimized for a fixed version of aggregation.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

2016-01-01

of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); V. Capasso

2009-01-01

htmlabstractWe give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects

Inverse problems in 1D hemodynamics on systemic networks: a sequential approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardi, D

2014-02-01

In this work, a sequential approach based on the unscented Kalman filter is applied to solve inverse problems in 1D hemodynamics, on a systemic network. For instance, the arterial stiffness is estimated by exploiting cross-sectional area and mean speed observations in several locations of the arteries. The results are compared with those ones obtained by estimating the pulse wave velocity and the Moens-Korteweg formula. In the last section, a perspective concerning the identification of the terminal models parameters and peripheral circulation (modeled by a Windkessel circuit) is presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Asymptotically optimum multialternative sequential procedures for discernment of processes minimizing average length of observations

Science.gov (United States)

Fishman, M. M.

1985-01-01

The problem of multialternative sequential discernment of processes is formulated in terms of conditionally optimum procedures minimizing the average length of observations, without any probabilistic assumptions about any one occurring process, rather than in terms of Bayes procedures minimizing the average risk. The problem is to find the procedure that will transform inequalities into equalities. The problem is formulated for various models of signal observation and data processing: (1) discernment of signals from background interference by a multichannel system; (2) discernment of pulse sequences with unknown time delay; (3) discernment of harmonic signals with unknown frequency. An asymptotically optimum sequential procedure is constructed which compares the statistics of the likelihood ratio with the mean-weighted likelihood ratio and estimates the upper bound for conditional average lengths of observations. This procedure is shown to remain valid as the upper bound for the probability of erroneous partial solutions decreases approaching zero and the number of hypotheses increases approaching infinity. It also remains valid under certain special constraints on the probability such as a threshold. A comparison with a fixed-length procedure reveals that this sequential procedure decreases the length of observations to one quarter, on the average, when the probability of erroneous partial solutions is low.

Sequential Probability Ratio Testing with Power Projective Base Method Improves Decision-Making for BCI

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Rong

2017-01-01

Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781

Sequential bayes estimation algorithm with cubic splines on uniform meshes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossfeld, F.; Mika, K.; Plesser-Walk, E.

1975-11-01

After outlining the principles of some recent developments in parameter estimation, a sequential numerical algorithm for generalized curve-fitting applications is presented combining results from statistical estimation concepts and spline analysis. Due to its recursive nature, the algorithm can be used most efficiently in online experimentation. Using computer-sumulated and experimental data, the efficiency and the flexibility of this sequential estimation procedure is extensively demonstrated. (orig.) [de

Analysis of transtheoretical model of health behavioral changes in a nutrition intervention study--a continuous time Markov chain model with Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C

2015-11-30

Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2013-01-01

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Retrieval of sea surface velocities using sequential ocean colour monitor (OCM) data

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Prasad, J.S.; Rajawat, A.S.; Pradhan, Y.; Chauhan, O.S.; Nayak, S.R.

velocities has been developed. The method is based on matching suspended sediment dispersion patterns, in sequential two time lapsed images. The pattern matching is performed on atmospherically corrected and geo-referenced sequential pair of images by Maximum...

The use of sequential indicator simulation to characterize geostatistical uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, K.M.

1992-10-01

Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) is a geostatistical technique designed to aid in the characterization of uncertainty about the structure or behavior of natural systems. This report discusses a simulation experiment designed to study the quality of uncertainty bounds generated using SIS. The results indicate that, while SIS may produce reasonable uncertainty bounds in many situations, factors like the number and location of available sample data, the quality of variogram models produced by the user, and the characteristics of the geologic region to be modeled, can all have substantial effects on the accuracy and precision of estimated confidence limits. It is recommended that users of SIS conduct validation studies for the technique on their particular regions of interest before accepting the output uncertainty bounds

A fast and accurate online sequential learning algorithm for feedforward networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Nan-Ying; Huang, Guang-Bin; Saratchandran, P; Sundararajan, N

2006-11-01

In this paper, we develop an online sequential learning algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward networks (SLFNs) with additive or radial basis function (RBF) hidden nodes in a unified framework. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) and can learn data one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk (a block of data) with fixed or varying chunk size. The activation functions for additive nodes in OS-ELM can be any bounded nonconstant piecewise continuous functions and the activation functions for RBF nodes can be any integrable piecewise continuous functions. In OS-ELM, the parameters of hidden nodes (the input weights and biases of additive nodes or the centers and impact factors of RBF nodes) are randomly selected and the output weights are analytically determined based on the sequentially arriving data. The algorithm uses the ideas of ELM of Huang et al. developed for batch learning which has been shown to be extremely fast with generalization performance better than other batch training methods. Apart from selecting the number of hidden nodes, no other control parameters have to be manually chosen. Detailed performance comparison of OS-ELM is done with other popular sequential learning algorithms on benchmark problems drawn from the regression, classification and time series prediction areas. The results show that the OS-ELM is faster than the other sequential algorithms and produces better generalization performance.

Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Capasso, V.

2009-01-01

We give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects through a video

Polarization control of direct (non-sequential) two-photon double ionization of He

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pronin, E A; Manakov, N L; Marmo, S I; Starace, Anthony F

2007-01-01

An ab initio parametrization of the doubly-differential cross section (DDCS) for two-photon double ionization (TPDI) from an s 2 subshell of an atom in a 1 S 0 -state is presented. Analysis of the elliptic dichroism (ED) effect in the DDCS for TPDI of He and its comparison with the same effect in the concurrent process of sequential double ionization shows their qualitative and quantitative differences, thus providing a means to control and to distinguish sequential and non-sequential processes by measuring the relative ED parameter

A Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending function to control type I error.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Han; Yu, Qingzhao

2017-10-01

We propose in this article a Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending functions to control the overall type I error in phase III clinical trials. We provide algorithms to calculate critical values, power, and sample sizes for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the effects from different prior distributions, and conservative priors are recommended. We compare the power and actual sample sizes of the proposed Bayesian sequential design with different alpha spending functions through simulations. We also compare the power of the proposed method with frequentist sequential design using the same alpha spending function. Simulations show that, at the same sample size, the proposed method provides larger power than the corresponding frequentist sequential design. It also has larger power than traditional Bayesian sequential design which sets equal critical values for all interim analyses. When compared with other alpha spending functions, O'Brien-Fleming alpha spending function has the largest power and is the most conservative in terms that at the same sample size, the null hypothesis is the least likely to be rejected at early stage of clinical trials. And finally, we show that adding a step of stop for futility in the Bayesian sequential design can reduce the overall type I error and reduce the actual sample sizes.

The pursuit of balance in sequential randomized trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond P. Guiteras

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In many randomized trials, subjects enter the sample sequentially. Because the covariates for all units are not known in advance, standard methods of stratification do not apply. We describe and assess the method of DA-optimal sequential allocation (Atkinson, 1982 for balancing stratification covariates across treatment arms. We provide simulation evidence that the method can provide substantial improvements in precision over commonly employed alternatives. We also describe our experience implementing the method in a field trial of a clean water and handwashing intervention in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the first time the method has been used. We provide advice and software for future researchers.

Event-shape analysis: Sequential versus simultaneous multifragment emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cebra, D.A.; Howden, S.; Karn, J.; Nadasen, A.; Ogilvie, C.A.; Vander Molen, A.; Westfall, G.D.; Wilson, W.K.; Winfield, J.S.; Norbeck, E.

1990-01-01

The Michigan State University 4π array has been used to select central-impact-parameter events from the reaction 40 Ar+ 51 V at incident energies from 35 to 85 MeV/nucleon. The event shape in momentum space is an observable which is shown to be sensitive to the dynamics of the fragmentation process. A comparison of the experimental event-shape distribution to sequential- and simultaneous-decay predictions suggests that a transition in the breakup process may have occurred. At 35 MeV/nucleon, a sequential-decay simulation reproduces the data. For the higher energies, the experimental distributions fall between the two contrasting predictions

Sequential approach to Colombeau's theory of generalized functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todorov, T.D.

1987-07-01

J.F. Colombeau's generalized functions are constructed as equivalence classes of the elements of a specially chosen ultrapower of the class of the C ∞ -functions. The elements of this ultrapower are considered as sequences of C ∞ -functions, so in a sense, the sequential construction presented here refers to the original Colombeau theory just as, for example, the Mikusinski sequential approach to the distribution theory refers to the original Schwartz theory of distributions. The paper could be used as an elementary introduction to the Colombeau theory in which recently a solution was found to the problem of multiplication of Schwartz distributions. (author). Refs

A three-parameter langmuir-type model for fitting standard curves of sandwich enzyme immunoassays with special attention to the α-fetoprotein assay

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kortlandt, W.; Endeman, H.J.; Hoeke, J.O.O.

In a simplified approach to the reaction kinetics of enzyme-linked immunoassays, a Langmuir-type equation y = [ax/(b + x)] + c was derived. This model proved to be superior to logit-log and semilog models in the curve-fitting of standard curves. An assay for α-fetoprotein developed in our laboratory

Configural and component processing in simultaneous and sequential lineup procedures

OpenAIRE

Flowe, HD; Smith, HMJ; Karoğlu, N; Onwuegbusi, TO; Rai, L

2015-01-01

Configural processing supports accurate face recognition, yet it has never been examined within the context of criminal identification lineups. We tested, using the inversion paradigm, the role of configural processing in lineups. Recent research has found that face discrimination accuracy in lineups is better in a simultaneous compared to a sequential lineup procedure. Therefore, we compared configural processing in simultaneous and sequential lineups to examine whether there are differences...

Plane-Based Sampling for Ray Casting Algorithm in Sequential Medical Images

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Lili; Chen, Shengyong; Shao, Yan; Gu, Zichun

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a plane-based sampling method to improve the traditional Ray Casting Algorithm (RCA) for the fast reconstruction of a three-dimensional biomedical model from sequential images. In the novel method, the optical properties of all sampling points depend on the intersection points when a ray travels through an equidistant parallel plan cluster of the volume dataset. The results show that the method improves the rendering speed at over three times compared with the conventional algorithm and the image quality is well guaranteed. PMID:23424608

Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

2013-01-01

We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

Standardized method for reproducing the sequential X-rays flap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenes, Alejandra; Molina, Katherine; Gudino, Sylvia

2009-01-01

A method is validated to estandardize in the taking, developing and analysis of bite-wing radiographs taken in sequential way, in order to compare and evaluate detectable changes in the evolution of the interproximal lesions through time. A radiographic positioner called XCP® is modified by means of a rigid acrylic guide, to achieve proper of the X ray equipment core positioning relative to the XCP® ring and the reorientation during the sequential x-rays process. 16 subjects of 4 to 40 years old are studied for a total number of 32 registries. Two x-rays of the same block of teeth of each subject have been taken in sequential way, with a minimal difference of 30 minutes between each one, before the placement of radiographic attachment. The images have been digitized with a Super Cam® scanner and imported to a software. The measurements in X and Y-axis for both x-rays were performed to proceed to compare. The intraclass correlation index (ICI) has shown that the proposed method is statistically related to measurement (mm) obtained in the X and Y-axis for both sequential series of x-rays (p=0.01). The measures of central tendency and dispersion have shown that the usual occurrence is indifferent between the two measurements (Mode 0.000 and S = 0083 and 0.109) and that the probability of occurrence of different values is lower than expected. (author) [es

The composite sequential clustering technique for analysis of multispectral scanner data

Science.gov (United States)

Su, M. Y.

1972-01-01

The clustering technique consists of two parts: (1) a sequential statistical clustering which is essentially a sequential variance analysis, and (2) a generalized K-means clustering. In this composite clustering technique, the output of (1) is a set of initial clusters which are input to (2) for further improvement by an iterative scheme. This unsupervised composite technique was employed for automatic classification of two sets of remote multispectral earth resource observations. The classification accuracy by the unsupervised technique is found to be comparable to that by traditional supervised maximum likelihood classification techniques. The mathematical algorithms for the composite sequential clustering program and a detailed computer program description with job setup are given.

Alternatives to the sequential lineup: the importance of controlling the pictures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindsay, R C; Bellinger, K

1999-06-01

Because sequential lineups reduce false-positive choices, their use has been recommended (R. C. L. Lindsay, 1999; R. C. L. Lindsay & G. L. Wells, 1985). Blind testing is included in the recommended procedures. Police, concerned about blind testing, devised alternative procedures, including self-administered sequential lineups, to reduce use of relative judgments (G. L. Wells, 1984) while permitting the investigating officer to conduct the procedure. Identification data from undergraduates exposed to a staged crime (N = 165) demonstrated that 4 alternative identification procedures tested were less effective than the original sequential lineup. Allowing witnesses to control the photographs resulted in higher rates of false-positive identification. Self-reports of using relative judgments were shown to be postdictive of decision accuracy.

Managerial adjustment and its limits: sequential fault in comparative perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávio da Cunha Rezende

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on explanations for sequential faults in administrative reform. It deals with the limits of managerial adjustment in an approach that attempts to connect theory and empirical data, articulating three levels of analysis. The first level presents comparative evidence of sequential fault within reforms in national governments through a set of indicators geared toward understanding changes in the role of the state. In light of analyses of a representative set of comparative studies on reform implementation, the second analytical level proceeds to identify four typical mechanisms that are present in explanations on managerial adjustment faults. In this way, we seek to configure an explanatory matrix for theories on sequential fault. Next we discuss the experience of management reform in the Brazilian context, conferring special attention on one of the mechanisms that creates fault: the control dilemma. The major hypotheses that guide our article are that reforms lead to sequential fault and that there are at least four causal mechanisms that produce reforms: a transactions costs involved in producing reforms; b performance legacy; c predominance of fiscal adjustment and d the control dilemma. These mechanisms act separately or in concert, and act to decrease chances for a transformation of State managerial patterns. Major evidence that is analyzed in these articles lend consistency to the general argument that reforms have failed in their attempts to reduce public expenses, alter patterns of resource allocation, reduce the labor force and change the role of the State. Our major conclusion is that reforms fail sequentially and managerial adjustment displays considerable limitations, particularly those of a political nature.

Effectiveness of maritime safety control in different navigation zones using a spatial sequential DEA model: Yangtze River case.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Bing; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Jinfen; Savan, Emanuel Emil; Yan, Xinping

2015-08-01

This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of maritime safety control from the perspective of safety level along the Yangtze River with special considerations for navigational environments. The influencing variables of maritime safety are reviewed, including ship condition, maritime regulatory system, human reliability and navigational environment. Because the former three variables are generally assumed to be of the same level of safety, this paper focuses on studying the impact of navigational environments on the level of safety in different waterways. An improved data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is proposed by treating the navigational environment factors as inputs and ship accident data as outputs. Moreover, because the traditional DEA model cannot provide an overall ranking of different decision making units (DMUs), the spatial sequential frontiers and grey relational analysis are incorporated into the DEA model to facilitate a refined assessment. Based on the empirical study results, the proposed model is able to solve the problem of information missing in the prior models and evaluate the level of safety with a better accuracy. The results of the proposed DEA model are further compared with an evidential reasoning (ER) method, which has been widely used for level of safety evaluations. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to better understand the relationship between the variation of navigational environments and level of safety. The sensitivity analysis shows that the level of safety varies in terms of traffic flow. It indicates that appropriate traffic control measures should be adopted for different waterways to improve their safety. This paper presents a practical method of conducting maritime level of safety assessments under dynamic navigational environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Airport terminal choice model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

2014-01-01

Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

Estimation After a Group Sequential Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel; Kenward, Michael G; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie; Verbeke, Geert

2015-10-01

Group sequential trials are one important instance of studies for which the sample size is not fixed a priori but rather takes one of a finite set of pre-specified values, dependent on the observed data. Much work has been devoted to the inferential consequences of this design feature. Molenberghs et al (2012) and Milanzi et al (2012) reviewed and extended the existing literature, focusing on a collection of seemingly disparate, but related, settings, namely completely random sample sizes, group sequential studies with deterministic and random stopping rules, incomplete data, and random cluster sizes. They showed that the ordinary sample average is a viable option for estimation following a group sequential trial, for a wide class of stopping rules and for random outcomes with a distribution in the exponential family. Their results are somewhat surprising in the sense that the sample average is not optimal, and further, there does not exist an optimal, or even, unbiased linear estimator. However, the sample average is asymptotically unbiased, both conditionally upon the observed sample size as well as marginalized over it. By exploiting ignorability they showed that the sample average is the conventional maximum likelihood estimator. They also showed that a conditional maximum likelihood estimator is finite sample unbiased, but is less efficient than the sample average and has the larger mean squared error. Asymptotically, the sample average and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator are equivalent. This previous work is restricted, however, to the situation in which the the random sample size can take only two values, N = n or N = 2 n . In this paper, we consider the more practically useful setting of sample sizes in a the finite set { n 1 , n 2 , …, n L }. It is shown that the sample average is then a justifiable estimator , in the sense that it follows from joint likelihood estimation, and it is consistent and asymptotically unbiased. We also show why

Simultaneous optimization of sequential IMRT plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popple, Richard A.; Prellop, Perri B.; Spencer, Sharon A.; Santos, Jennifer F. de los; Duan, Jun; Fiveash, John B.; Brezovich, Ivan A.

2005-01-01

Radiotherapy often comprises two phases, in which irradiation of a volume at risk for microscopic disease is followed by a sequential dose escalation to a smaller volume either at a higher risk for microscopic disease or containing only gross disease. This technique is difficult to implement with intensity modulated radiotherapy, as the tolerance doses of critical structures must be respected over the sum of the two plans. Techniques that include an integrated boost have been proposed to address this problem. However, clinical experience with such techniques is limited, and many clinicians are uncomfortable prescribing nonconventional fractionation schemes. To solve this problem, we developed an optimization technique that simultaneously generates sequential initial and boost IMRT plans. We have developed an optimization tool that uses a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) and a high level programming language for technical computing. The tool uses the TPS to calculate the dose deposition coefficients (DDCs) for optimization. The DDCs were imported into external software and the treatment ports duplicated to create the boost plan. The initial, boost, and tolerance doses were specified and used to construct cost functions. The initial and boost plans were optimized simultaneously using a gradient search technique. Following optimization, the fluence maps were exported to the TPS for dose calculation. Seven patients treated using sequential techniques were selected from our clinical database. The initial and boost plans used to treat these patients were developed independently of each other by dividing the tolerance doses proportionally between the initial and boost plans and then iteratively optimizing the plans until a summation that met the treatment goals was obtained. We used the simultaneous optimization technique to generate plans that met the original planning goals. The coverage of the initial and boost target volumes in the simultaneously optimized

Optimal Sequential Resource Sharing and Exchange in Multi-Agent Systems

OpenAIRE

Xiao, Yuanzhang

2014-01-01

Central to the design of many engineering systems and social networks is to solve the underlying resource sharing and exchange problems, in which multiple decentralized agents make sequential decisions over time to optimize some long-term performance metrics. It is challenging for the decentralized agents to make optimal sequential decisions because of the complicated coupling among the agents and across time. In this dissertation, we mainly focus on three important classes of multi-agent seq...

S.M.P. SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM.

Science.gov (United States)

CICIARELLI, V; LEONARD, JOSEPH

A SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM BEGINNING WITH THE BASIC FUNDAMENTALS ON THE FOURTH GRADE LEVEL IS PRESENTED. INCLUDED ARE AN UNDERSTANDING OF OUR NUMBER SYSTEM, AND THE BASIC OPERATIONS OF WORKING WITH WHOLE NUMBERS--ADDITION, SUBTRACTION, MULTIPLICATION, AND DIVISION. COMMON FRACTIONS ARE TAUGHT IN THE FIFTH, SIXTH, AND SEVENTH GRADES. A…

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System Considering Sequential Characteristics of Distributed Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng Wanxing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In allusion to the randomness of output power of distributed generation (DG, a reliability evaluation model based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS for distribution system with DG is proposed. Operating states of the distribution system can be sampled by SMCS in chronological order thus the corresponding output power of DG can be generated. The proposed method has been tested on feeder F4 of IEEE-RBTS Bus 6. The results show that reliability evaluation of distribution system considering the uncertainty of output power of DG can be effectively implemented by SMCS.

Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

OpenAIRE

Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

1995-01-01

This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

Sequential sputtered Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chadha, M.; Ng, V.

2017-03-15

A systematic study of magnetic, magneto-transport and micro-structural properties of Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films fabricated by sequential sputtering is presented. We demonstrate reduction in ferromagnetic-oxide formation by using HfO{sub 2} as the insulting matrix. Microstructure evaluation of the films showed that the film structure consisted of discrete hcp-Co grains embedded in HfO{sub 2} matrix. Films with varying compositions were prepared and their macroscopic properties were studied. We correlate the variation in these properties to the variation in film microstructure. Our study shows that Co-HfO{sub 2} films with reduced cobalt oxide and varying properties can be prepared using sequential sputtering technique. - Highlights: • Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films were prepared using sequential sputtering. • A reduction in ferromagnetic-oxide formation is observed. • Co-HfO{sub 2} films display superparamagnetism and tunnelling magneto-resistance. • Varying macroscopic properties were achieved by changing film composition. • Applications can be found in moderate MR sensors and high –frequency RF devices.

Involvement of Working Memory in College Students' Sequential Pattern Learning and Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Kundey, Shannon M. A.; De Los Reyes, Andres; Rowan, James D.; Lee, Bern; Delise, Justin; Molina, Sabrina; Cogdill, Lindsay

2013-01-01

When learning highly organized sequential patterns of information, humans and nonhuman animals learn rules regarding the hierarchical structures of these sequences. In three experiments, we explored the role of working memory in college students' sequential pattern learning and performance in a computerized task involving a sequential…

Double-blind photo lineups using actual eyewitnesses: an experimental test of a sequential versus simultaneous lineup procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Gary L; Steblay, Nancy K; Dysart, Jennifer E

2015-02-01

Eyewitnesses (494) to actual crimes in 4 police jurisdictions were randomly assigned to view simultaneous or sequential photo lineups using laptop computers and double-blind administration. The sequential procedure used in the field experiment mimicked how it is conducted in actual practice (e.g., using a continuation rule, witness does not know how many photos are to be viewed, witnesses resolve any multiple identifications), which is not how most lab experiments have tested the sequential lineup. No significant differences emerged in rates of identifying lineup suspects (25% overall) but the sequential procedure produced a significantly lower rate (11%) of identifying known-innocent lineup fillers than did the simultaneous procedure (18%). The simultaneous/sequential pattern did not significantly interact with estimator variables and no lineup-position effects were observed for either the simultaneous or sequential procedures. Rates of nonidentification were not significantly different for simultaneous and sequential but nonidentifiers from the sequential procedure were more likely to use the "not sure" response option than were nonidentifiers from the simultaneous procedure. Among witnesses who made an identification, 36% (41% of simultaneous and 32% of sequential) identified a known-innocent filler rather than a suspect, indicating that eyewitness performance overall was very poor. The results suggest that the sequential procedure that is used in the field reduces the identification of known-innocent fillers, but the differences are relatively small.

Accumulation of evidence during sequential decision making: the importance of top-down factors.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lange, Floris P; Jensen, Ole; Dehaene, Stanislas

2010-01-13

In the last decade, great progress has been made in characterizing the accumulation of neural information during simple unitary perceptual decisions. However, much less is known about how sequentially presented evidence is integrated over time for successful decision making. The aim of this study was to study the mechanisms of sequential decision making in humans. In a magnetoencephalography (MEG) study, we presented healthy volunteers with sequences of centrally presented arrows. Sequence length varied between one and five arrows, and the accumulated directions of the arrows informed the subject about which hand to use for a button press at the end of the sequence (e.g., LRLRR should result in a right-hand press). Mathematical modeling suggested that nonlinear accumulation was the rational strategy for performing this task in the presence of no or little noise, whereas quasilinear accumulation was optimal in the presence of substantial noise. MEG recordings showed a correlate of evidence integration over parietal and central cortex that was inversely related to the amount of accumulated evidence (i.e., when more evidence was accumulated, neural activity for new stimuli was attenuated). This modulation of activity likely reflects a top-down influence on sensory processing, effectively constraining the influence of sensory information on the decision variable over time. The results indicate that, when making decisions on the basis of sequential information, the human nervous system integrates evidence in a nonlinear manner, using the amount of previously accumulated information to constrain the accumulation of additional evidence.

Cortical responses following simultaneous and sequential retinal neurostimulation with different return configurations.

Science.gov (United States)

Barriga-Rivera, Alejandro; Morley, John W; Lovell, Nigel H; Suaning, Gregg J

2016-08-01

Researchers continue to develop visual prostheses towards safer and more efficacious systems. However limitations still exist in the number of stimulating channels that can be integrated. Therefore there is a need for spatial and time multiplexing techniques to provide improved performance of the current technology. In particular, bright and high-contrast visual scenes may require simultaneous activation of several electrodes. In this research, a 24-electrode array was suprachoroidally implanted in three normally-sighted cats. Multi-unit activity was recorded from the primary visual cortex. Four stimulation strategies were contrasted to provide activation of seven electrodes arranged hexagonally: simultaneous monopolar, sequential monopolar, sequential bipolar and hexapolar. Both monopolar configurations showed similar cortical activation maps. Hexapolar and sequential bipolar configurations activated a lower number of cortical channels. Overall, the return configuration played a more relevant role in cortical activation than time multiplexing and thus, rapid sequential stimulation may assist in reducing the number of channels required to activate large retinal areas.

Sequential Versus Simultaneous Market Delineation: The Relevant Antitrust Market for Salmon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Peter, Møllgaard

Delineation of the relevant market forms a pivotal part of most antitrust cases. The standard approach is sequential. First the product market is delineated, then the geographical market is defined. Demand andsupply substitution in both the product dimension and the geographical dimension will no...... and geographical markets. Using a unique data set for prices of Norwegian and Scottish salmon, we propose a methodology for simultaneous market delineation and we demonstrate that compared to a sequential approach conclusions will be reversed.......Delineation of the relevant market forms a pivotal part of most antitrust cases. The standard approach is sequential. First the product market is delineated, then the geographical market is defined. Demand andsupply substitution in both the product dimension and the geographical dimension...

Endogenous sequential cortical activity evoked by visual stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Miller, Jae-Eun Kang; Hamm, Jordan P; Jackson, Jesse; Yuste, Rafael

2015-06-10

Although the functional properties of individual neurons in primary visual cortex have been studied intensely, little is known about how neuronal groups could encode changing visual stimuli using temporal activity patterns. To explore this, we used in vivo two-photon calcium imaging to record the activity of neuronal populations in primary visual cortex of awake mice in the presence and absence of visual stimulation. Multidimensional analysis of the network activity allowed us to identify neuronal ensembles defined as groups of cells firing in synchrony. These synchronous groups of neurons were themselves activated in sequential temporal patterns, which repeated at much higher proportions than chance and were triggered by specific visual stimuli such as natural visual scenes. Interestingly, sequential patterns were also present in recordings of spontaneous activity without any sensory stimulation and were accompanied by precise firing sequences at the single-cell level. Moreover, intrinsic dynamics could be used to predict the occurrence of future neuronal ensembles. Our data demonstrate that visual stimuli recruit similar sequential patterns to the ones observed spontaneously, consistent with the hypothesis that already existing Hebbian cell assemblies firing in predefined temporal sequences could be the microcircuit substrate that encodes visual percepts changing in time. Copyright © 2015 Carrillo-Reid et al.

Modeling route choice criteria from home to major streets: A discrete choice approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Osiris Vidana-Bencomo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A discrete choice model that consists of three sub-models was developed to investigates the route choice criteria of drivers who travel from their homes in the morning to the access point along the major streets that bound the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs. The first sub-model is a Nested Logit Model (NLM that estimates the probability of a driver has or has no multiple routes, and if the driver has multiple routes, the route selection criteria are based on the access point’s intersection control type or other factors. The second sub-model is a Mixed Logit (MXL model. It estimates the probabilities of the type of intersection control preferred by a driver. The third sub-model is a NLM that estimates the probabilities of a driver selecting his/her route for its shortest travel time or to avoid pedestrian, and if the aim is to take the fastest route, the decision criteria is based on the shortest distance or minimum stops and turns. Data gathered in a questionnaire survey were used to estimate the sub-models. The attributes of the utility functions of the sub-models are the driver’s demographic and trip characteristics. The model provides a means for transportation planners to distribute the total number of home-based trips generated within a TAZ to the access points along the major streets that bound the TAZ.

Efficacy of premixed versus sequential administration of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

sequential administration in separate syringes on block characteristics, haemodynamic parameters, side effect profile and postoperative analgesic requirement. Trial design: This was a prospective, randomised clinical study. Method: Sixty orthopaedic patients scheduled for elective lower limb surgery under spinal ...

[Sequential degradation of p-cresol by photochemical and biological methods].

Science.gov (United States)

Karetnikova, E A; Chaĭkovskaia, O N; Sokolova, I V; Nikitina, L I

2008-01-01

Sequential photo- and biodegradation of p-cresol was studied using a mercury lamp, as well as KrCl and XeCl excilamps. Preirradiation of p-cresol at a concentration of 10(-4) M did not affect the rate of its subsequent biodegradation. An increase in the concentration of p-cresol to 10(-3) M and in the duration preliminary UV irradiation inhibited subsequent biodegradation. Biodegradation of p-cresol was accompanied by the formation of a product with a fluorescence maximum at 365 nm (lambdaex 280 nm), and photodegradation yielded a compound fluorescing at 400 nm (lambdaex 330 nm). Sequential UV and biodegradation led to the appearance of bands in the fluorescence spectra that were ascribed to p-cresol and its photolysis products. It was shown that sequential use of biological and photochemical degradation results in degradation of not only the initial toxicant but also the metabolites formed during its biodegradation.

Construction of risk prediction model of type 2 diabetes mellitus based on logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Jian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: to construct multi factor prediction model for the individual risk of T2DM, and to explore new ideas for early warning, prevention and personalized health services for T2DM. Methods: using logistic regression techniques to screen the risk factors for T2DM and construct the risk prediction model of T2DM. Results: Male’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI × 0.735+ vegetables × (−0.671 + age × 0.838+ diastolic pressure × 0.296+ physical activity× (−2.287 + sleep ×(−0.009 +smoking ×0.214; Female’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI ×1.979+ vegetables× (−0.292 + age × 1.355+ diastolic pressure× 0.522+ physical activity × (−2.287 + sleep × (−0.010.The area under the ROC curve of male was 0.83, the sensitivity was 0.72, the specificity was 0.86, the area under the ROC curve of female was 0.84, the sensitivity was 0.75, the specificity was 0.90. Conclusion: This study model data is from a compared study of nested case, the risk prediction model has been established by using the more mature logistic regression techniques, and the model is higher predictive sensitivity, specificity and stability.

Effect of sequential isoproturon pulse exposure on Scenedesmus vacuolatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Vallotton, Nathalie; Eggen, Rik Ilda Lambertus; Chèvre, Nathalie

2009-04-01

Aquatic organisms are typically exposed to fluctuating concentrations of herbicides in streams. To assess the effects on algae of repeated peak exposure to the herbicide isoproturon, we subjected the alga Scenedesmus vacuolatus to two sequential pulse exposure scenarios. Effects on growth and on the inhibition of the effective quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII) were measured. In the first scenario, algae were exposed to short, 5-h pulses at high isoproturon concentrations (400 and 1000 microg/l), each followed by a recovery period of 18 h, while the second scenario consisted of 22.5-h pulses at lower concentrations (60 and 120 microg/l), alternating with short recovery periods (1.5 h). In addition, any changes in the sensitivity of the algae to isoproturon following sequential pulses were examined by determining the growth rate-EC(50) prior to and following exposure. In both exposure scenarios, we found that algal growth and its effective quantum yield were systematically inhibited during the exposures and that these effects were reversible. Sequential pulses to isoproturon could be considered a sequence of independent events. Nevertheless, a consequence of inhibited growth during the repeated exposures is the cumulative decrease in biomass production. Furthermore, in the second scenario, when the sequence of long pulses began to approach a scenario of continuous exposure, a slight increase in the tolerance of the algae to isoproturon was observed. These findings indicated that sequential pulses do affect algae during each pulse exposure, even if algae recover between the exposures. These observations could support an improved risk assessment of fluctuating exposures to reversibly acting herbicides.

Sequential change in T2* values of cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat model of knee osteoarthritis.

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Ping-Huei Tsai

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is an emerging interest in using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI T2* measurement for the evaluation of degenerative cartilage in osteoarthritis (OA. However, relatively few studies have addressed OA-related changes in adjacent knee structures. This study used MRI T2* measurement to investigate sequential changes in knee cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat OA model induced by anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLX. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighteen male Sprague Dawley rats were randomly separated into three groups (n = 6 each group. Group 1 was the normal control group. Groups 2 and 3 received ACLX and sham-ACLX, respectively, of the right knee. T2* values were measured in the knee cartilage, the meniscus, and femoral subchondral bone marrow of all rats at 0, 4, 13, and 18 weeks after surgery. RESULTS: Cartilage T2* values were significantly higher at 4, 13, and 18 weeks postoperatively in rats of the ACLX group than in rats of the control and sham groups (p<0.001. In the ACLX group (compared to the sham and control groups, T2* values increased significantly first in the posterior horn of the medial meniscus at 4 weeks (p = 0.001, then in the anterior horn of the medial meniscus at 13 weeks (p<0.001, and began to increase significantly in the femoral subchondral bone marrow at 13 weeks (p = 0.043. CONCLUSION: Quantitative MR T2* measurements of OA-related tissues are feasible. Sequential change in T2* over time in cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow were documented. This information could be potentially useful for in vivo monitoring of disease progression.

Short-Term Free Recall and Sequential Memory for Pictures and Words: A Simultaneous-Successive Processing Interpretation.

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Randhawa, Bikkar S.; And Others

1982-01-01

Replications of two basic experiments in support of the dual-coding processing model with grade 10 and college subjects used pictures, concrete words, and abstract words as stimuli presented at fast and slow rates for immediate and sequential recall. Results seem to be consistent with predictions of simultaneous-successive cognitive theory. (MBR)

Sequential-Simultaneous Analysis of Japanese Children's Performance on the Japanese McCarthy.

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Ishikuma, Toshinori; And Others

This study explored the hypothesis that Japanese children perform significantly better on simultaneous processing than on sequential processing. The Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children (K-ABC) served as the criterion of the two types of mental processing. Regression equations to predict Sequential and Simultaneous processing from McCarthy…