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Sample records for sensitivity analysis methods

  1. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

    2006-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  2. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

    2006-08-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of the Two Geometry Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichers, V.A.

    1993-09-01

    The Two Geometry Method (TGM) was designed specifically for the verification of the uranium enrichment of low enriched UF 6 gas in the presence of uranium deposits on the pipe walls. Complications can arise if the TGM is applied under extreme conditions, such as deposits larger than several times the gas activity, small pipe diameters less than 40 mm and low pressures less than 150 Pa. This report presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the TGM. The impact of the various sources of uncertainty on the performance of the method is discussed. The application to a practical case is based on worst case conditions with regards to the measurement conditions, and on realistic conditions with respect to the false alarm probability and the non detection probability. Monte Carlo calculations were used to evaluate the sensitivity for sources of uncertainty which are experimentally inaccessible. (orig.)

  4. An ESDIRK Method with Sensitivity Analysis Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Rode; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Thomsen, Per Grove

    2004-01-01

    of the sensitivity equations. A key feature is the reuse of information already computed for the state integration, hereby minimizing the extra effort required for sensitivity integration. Through case studies the new algorithm is compared to an extrapolation method and to the more established BDF based approaches...

  5. Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. F. Wei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

  6. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H

    2014-05-15

    We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.

  7. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  8. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  9. A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

    2008-01-01

    Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Structures by Virtual Distortion Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gierlinski, J.T.; Holnicki-Szulc, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1991-01-01

    are used in structural optimization, see Haftka [4]. The recently developed Virtual Distortion Method (VDM) is a numerical technique which offers an efficient approach to calculation of the sensitivity derivatives. This method has been orginally applied to structural remodelling and collapse analysis, see...

  11. Computational Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadhead, B.L.; Childs, R.L.; Rearden, B.T.

    1999-01-01

    Interest in the sensitivity methods that were developed and widely used in the 1970s (the FORSS methodology at ORNL among others) has increased recently as a result of potential use in the area of criticality safety data validation procedures to define computational bias, uncertainties and area(s) of applicability. Functional forms of the resulting sensitivity coefficients can be used as formal parameters in the determination of applicability of benchmark experiments to their corresponding industrial application areas. In order for these techniques to be generally useful to the criticality safety practitioner, the procedures governing their use had to be updated and simplified. This paper will describe the resulting sensitivity analysis tools that have been generated for potential use by the criticality safety community

  12. An easily implemented static condensation method for structural sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangadharan, S. N.; Haftka, R. T.; Nikolaidis, E.

    1990-01-01

    A black-box approach to static condensation for sensitivity analysis is presented with illustrative examples of a cube and a car structure. The sensitivity of the structural response with respect to joint stiffness parameter is calculated using the direct method, forward-difference, and central-difference schemes. The efficiency of the various methods for identifying joint stiffness parameters from measured static deflections of these structures is compared. The results indicate that the use of static condensation can reduce computation times significantly and the black-box approach is only slightly less efficient than the standard implementation of static condensation. The ease of implementation of the black-box approach recommends it for use with general-purpose finite element codes that do not have a built-in facility for static condensation.

  13. Overview of hybrid subspace methods for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Bang, Youngsuk; Wang, Congjian

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We overview the state-of-the-art in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. ► We overview new developments in above areas using hybrid methods. ► We give a tutorial introduction to above areas and the new developments. ► Hybrid methods address the explosion in dimensionality in nonlinear models. ► Representative numerical experiments are given. -- Abstract: The role of modeling and simulation has been heavily promoted in recent years to improve understanding of complex engineering systems. To realize the benefits of modeling and simulation, concerted efforts in the areas of uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are required. The manuscript intends to serve as a pedagogical presentation of the material to young researchers and practitioners with little background on the subjects. We believe this is important as the role of these subjects is expected to be integral to the design, safety, and operation of existing as well as next generation reactors. In addition to covering the basics, an overview of the current state-of-the-art will be given with particular emphasis on the challenges pertaining to nuclear reactor modeling. The second objective will focus on presenting our own development of hybrid subspace methods intended to address the explosion in the computational overhead required when handling real-world complex engineering systems.

  14. Complex finite element sensitivity method for creep analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez-Farias, Armando; Montoya, Arturo; Millwater, Harry

    2015-01-01

    The complex finite element method (ZFEM) has been extended to perform sensitivity analysis for mechanical and structural systems undergoing creep deformation. ZFEM uses a complex finite element formulation to provide shape, material, and loading derivatives of the system response, providing an insight into the essential factors which control the behavior of the system as a function of time. A complex variable-based quadrilateral user element (UEL) subroutine implementing the power law creep constitutive formulation was incorporated within the Abaqus commercial finite element software. The results of the complex finite element computations were verified by comparing them to the reference solution for the steady-state creep problem of a thick-walled cylinder in the power law creep range. A practical application of the ZFEM implementation to creep deformation analysis is the calculation of the skeletal point of a notched bar test from a single ZFEM run. In contrast, the standard finite element procedure requires multiple runs. The value of the skeletal point is that it identifies the location where the stress state is accurate, regardless of the certainty of the creep material properties. - Highlights: • A novel finite element sensitivity method (ZFEM) for creep was introduced. • ZFEM has the capability to calculate accurate partial derivatives. • ZFEM can be used for identification of the skeletal point of creep structures. • ZFEM can be easily implemented in a commercial software, e.g. Abaqus. • ZFEM results were shown to be in excellent agreement with analytical solutions

  15. Hydrocoin level 3 - Testing methods for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, B.; Lindbom, B.; Larsson, A.; Andersson, K.

    1991-01-01

    The HYDROCOIN study is an international cooperative project for testing groundwater hydrology modelling strategies for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The study was initiated in 1984 by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the technical work was finalised in 1987. The participating organisations are regulatory authorities as well as implementing organisations in 10 countries. The study has been performed at three levels aimed at studying computer code verification, model validation and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis respectively. The results from the first two levels, code verification and model validation, have been published in reports in 1988 and 1990 respectively. This paper focuses on some aspects of the results from Level 3, sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, for which a final report is planned to be published during 1990. For Level 3, seven test cases were defined. Some of these aimed at exploring the uncertainty associated with the modelling results by simply varying parameter values and conceptual assumptions. In other test cases statistical sampling methods were applied. One of the test cases dealt with particle tracking and the uncertainty introduced by this type of post processing. The amount of results available is substantial although unevenly spread over the test cases. It has not been possible to cover all aspects of the results in this paper. Instead, the different methods applied will be illustrated by some typical analyses. 4 figs., 9 refs

  16. Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…

  17. Methods and computer codes for probabilistic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the methods and applications experience with two computer codes that are now available from the National Energy Software Center at Argonne National Laboratory. The purpose of the SCREEN code is to identify a group of most important input variables of a code that has many (tens, hundreds) input variables with uncertainties, and do this without relying on judgment or exhaustive sensitivity studies. Purpose of the PROSA-2 code is to propagate uncertainties and calculate the distributions of interesting output variable(s) of a safety analysis code using response surface techniques, based on the same runs used for screening. Several applications are discussed, but the codes are generic, not tailored to any specific safety application code. They are compatible in terms of input/output requirements but also independent of each other, e.g., PROSA-2 can be used without first using SCREEN if a set of important input variables has first been selected by other methods. Also, although SCREEN can select cases to be run (by random sampling), a user can select cases by other methods if he so prefers, and still use the rest of SCREEN for identifying important input variables

  18. Methods for global sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, Evelyne A.; Bokkers, Eddy; Heijungs, Reinout; Boer, de Imke J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Input parameters required to quantify environmental impact in life cycle assessment (LCA) can be uncertain due to e.g. temporal variability or unknowns about the true value of emission factors. Uncertainty of environmental impact can be analysed by means of a global sensitivity analysis to

  19. Sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...

  20. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  1. Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

  2. A method of the sensitivity analysis of build-up and decay of actinides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitani, Hiroshi; Koyama, Kinji; Kuroi, Hideo

    1977-07-01

    To make sensitivity analysis of build-up and decay of actinides, mathematical methods related to this problem have been investigated in detail. Application of time-dependent perturbation technique and Bateman method to sensitivity analysis is mainly studied. For the purpose, a basic equation and its adjoint equation for build-up and decay of actinides are systematically solved by introducing Laplace and modified Laplace transforms and their convolution theorems. Then, the mathematical method of sensitivity analyses is formulated by the above technique; its physical significance is also discussed. Finally, application of eigenvalue-method is investigated. Sensitivity coefficients can be directly calculated by this method. (auth.)

  3. Application of Monte Carlo filtering method in regional sensitivity analysis of AASHTOWare Pavement ME design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Wu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Since AASHTO released the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG for public review in 2004, many highway research agencies have performed sensitivity analyses using the prototype MEPDG design software. The information provided by the sensitivity analysis is essential for design engineers to better understand the MEPDG design models and to identify important input parameters for pavement design. In literature, different studies have been carried out based on either local or global sensitivity analysis methods, and sensitivity indices have been proposed for ranking the importance of the input parameters. In this paper, a regional sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo filtering (MCF, is presented. The MCF method maintains many advantages of the global sensitivity analysis, while focusing on the regional sensitivity of the MEPDG model near the design criteria rather than the entire problem domain. It is shown that the information obtained from the MCF method is more helpful and accurate in guiding design engineers in pavement design practices. To demonstrate the proposed regional sensitivity method, a typical three-layer flexible pavement structure was analyzed at input level 3. A detailed procedure to generate Monte Carlo runs using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was provided. The results in the example show that the sensitivity ranking of the input parameters in this study reasonably matches with that in a previous study under a global sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results, the strengths, practical issues, and applications of the MCF method were further discussed.

  4. Comparison of global sensitivity analysis methods – Application to fuel behavior modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, Timo, E-mail: timo.ikonen@vtt.fi

    2016-02-15

    Highlights: • Several global sensitivity analysis methods are compared. • The methods’ applicability to nuclear fuel performance simulations is assessed. • The implications of large input uncertainties and complex models are discussed. • Alternative strategies to perform sensitivity analyses are proposed. - Abstract: Fuel performance codes have two characteristics that make their sensitivity analysis challenging: large uncertainties in input parameters and complex, non-linear and non-additive structure of the models. The complex structure of the code leads to interactions between inputs that show as cross terms in the sensitivity analysis. Due to the large uncertainties of the inputs these interactions are significant, sometimes even dominating the sensitivity analysis. For the same reason, standard linearization techniques do not usually perform well in the analysis of fuel performance codes. More sophisticated methods are typically needed in the analysis. To this end, we compare the performance of several sensitivity analysis methods in the analysis of a steady state FRAPCON simulation. The comparison of importance rankings obtained with the various methods shows that even the simplest methods can be sufficient for the analysis of fuel maximum temperature. However, the analysis of the gap conductance requires more powerful methods that take into account the interactions of the inputs. In some cases, moment-independent methods are needed. We also investigate the computational cost of the various methods and present recommendations as to which methods to use in the analysis.

  5. High sensitivity neutron activation analysis using coincidence counting method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Shogo; Okada, Yukiko; Hirai, Shoji

    1999-01-01

    Four kinds of standard samples such as river sediment (NIES CRM No.16), Typical Japanese Diet, otoliths and river water were irradiated by TRIGA-II (100 kW, 3.7x10 12 n cm -2 s -1 ) for 6 h. After irradiation and cooling, they were analyzed by the coincidence counting method and a conventional γ-ray spectrometry. Se, Ba and Hf were determined by 75 Se 265 keV, 131 Ba 496 keV and 181 Hf 482 keV. On the river sediment sample, Ba and Hf showed the same values by two methods, but Se value contained Ta by the conventional method, although the coincidence counting method could analyze Se. On Typical Japanese Diet and otoliths, Se could be determined by two methods and Ba and Hf determined by the coincidence counting method but not determined by the conventional method. Se value in the river water agreed with the authorization value. (S.Y.)

  6. A simple, sensitive graphical method of treating thermogravimetric analysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham Broido

    1969-01-01

    Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) is finding increasing utility in investigations of the pyrolysis and combustion behavior of materuals. Although a theoretical treatment of the TGA behavior of an idealized reaction is relatively straight-forward, major complications can be introduced when the reactions are complex, e.g., in the pyrolysis of cellulose, and when...

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of the Proximal-Based Parallel Decomposition Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The proximal-based parallel decomposition methods were recently proposed to solve structured convex optimization problems. These algorithms are eligible for parallel computation and can be used efficiently for solving large-scale separable problems. In this paper, compared with the previous theoretical results, we show that the range of the involved parameters can be enlarged while the convergence can be still established. Preliminary numerical tests on stable principal component pursuit problem testify to the advantages of the enlargement.

  8. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  9. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-15

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  10. A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2013-12-01

    Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

  11. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Sallaberry, C.J.; Storlie, C.B.

    2006-01-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs (ii) generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs (iii) propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis (iv) presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (v) determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition

  12. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

    2006-06-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

  13. Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R.

    2006-05-01

    Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several linked

  14. Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R. [Facilia AB, Stockholm, (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Dynamic Tariff Method for Congestion Management in Distribution Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Liu, Zhaoxi

    2015-01-01

    The dynamic tariff (DT) method is designed for the distribution system operator (DSO) to alleviate the congestions that might occur in a distribution network with high penetration of distribute energy resources (DERs). Sensitivity analysis of the DT method is crucial because of its decentralized...... control manner. The sensitivity analysis can obtain the changes of the optimal energy planning and thereby the line loading profiles over the infinitely small changes of parameters by differentiating the KKT conditions of the convex quadratic programming, over which the DT method is formed. Three case...

  16. Adjoint Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for the Hydrodynamic Lattice Boltzmann Method with Applications to Design Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pingen, Georg; Evgrafov, Anton; Maute, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    We present an adjoint parameter sensitivity analysis formulation and solution strategy for the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The focus is on design optimization applications, in particular topology optimization. The lattice Boltzmann method is briefly described with an in-depth discussion...

  17. Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

    2009-01-01

    Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of a complex, proposed geologic waste disposal system using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Yichi; Mohanty, Sitakanta

    2001-01-01

    The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method has been used to perform a sensitivity analysis of a computer model developed for conducting total system performance assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. The computer model has a large number of random input parameters with assigned probability density functions, which may or may not be uniform, for representing data uncertainty. The FAST method, which was previously applied to models with parameters represented by the uniform probability distribution function only, has been modified to be applied to models with nonuniform probability distribution functions. Using an example problem with a small input parameter set, several aspects of the FAST method, such as the effects of integer frequency sets and random phase shifts in the functional transformations, and the number of discrete sampling points (equivalent to the number of model executions) on the ranking of the input parameters have been investigated. Because the number of input parameters of the computer model under investigation is too large to be handled by the FAST method, less important input parameters were first screened out using the Morris method. The FAST method was then used to rank the remaining parameters. The validity of the parameter ranking by the FAST method was verified using the conditional complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of the output. The CCDF results revealed that the introduction of random phase shifts into the functional transformations, proposed by previous investigators to disrupt the repetitiveness of search curves, does not necessarily improve the sensitivity analysis results because it destroys the orthogonality of the trigonometric functions, which is required for Fourier analysis

  19. Application of Wielandt method in continuous-energy nuclear data sensitivity analysis with RMC code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu Yishu; Wang Kan; She Ding

    2015-01-01

    The Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method, an accurate method to estimate adjoint-weighted quantities in the continuous-energy Monte Carlo criticality calculations, has been widely used for calculating kinetic parameters and nuclear data sensitivity coefficients. By using a strategy of waiting, however, this method faces the challenge of high memory usage to store the tallies of original contributions which size is proportional to the number of particle histories in each cycle. Recently, the Wielandt method, applied by Monte Carlo code McCARD to calculate kinetic parameters, estimates adjoint fluxes in a single particle history and thus can save memory usage. In this work, the Wielandt method has been applied in Rector Monte Carlo code RMC for nuclear data sensitivity analysis. The methodology and algorithm of applying Wielandt method in estimation of adjoint-based sensitivity coefficients are discussed. Verification is performed by comparing the sensitivity coefficients calculated by Wielandt method with analytical solutions, those computed by IFP method which is also implemented in RMC code for sensitivity analysis, and those from the multi-group TSUNAMI-3D module in SCALE code package. (author)

  20. Sensitivity analysis of an environmental model: an application of different analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campolongo, Francesca; Saltelli, Andrea

    1997-01-01

    A parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted on a well known model for the production of a key sulphur bearing compound from algal biota. The model is of interest because of the climatic relevance of the gas (dimethylsulphide, DMS), an initiator of cloud particles. A screening test at low sample size is applied first (Morris method) followed by a computationally intensive variance based measure. Standardised regression coefficients are also computed. The various SA measures are compared with each other, and the use of bootstrap is suggested to extract empirical confidence bounds on the SA estimators. For some of the input factors, investigators guess about the parameters relevance was confirmed; for some others, the results shed new light on the system mechanism and on the data parametrisation

  1. Deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems: forward and adjoint methods. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D.G.

    1984-07-01

    This report presents a self-contained mathematical formalism for deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems, a detailed application to sensitivity analysis of the homogeneous equilibrium model of two-phase flow, and a representative application to sensitivity analysis of a model (simulating pump-trip-type accidents in BWRs) where a transition between single phase and two phase occurs. The rigor and generality of this sensitivity analysis formalism stem from the use of Gateaux (G-) differentials. This report highlights the major aspects of deterministic (forward and adjoint) sensitivity analysis, including derivation of the forward sensitivity equations, derivation of sensitivity expressions in terms of adjoint functions, explicit construction of the adjoint system satisfied by these adjoint functions, determination of the characteristics of this adjoint system, and demonstration that these characteristics are the same as those of the original quasilinear two-phase flow equations. This proves that whenever the original two-phase flow problem is solvable, the adjoint system is also solvable and, in principle, the same numerical methods can be used to solve both the original and adjoint equations

  2. Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

  3. Manufacturing error sensitivity analysis and optimal design method of cable-network antenna structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Yali; Hu, Naigang; Duan, Baoyan; Yang, Guigeng; Cao, Hongjun; Xu, Wanye

    2016-03-01

    Inevitable manufacturing errors and inconsistency between assumed and actual boundary conditions can affect the shape precision and cable tensions of a cable-network antenna, and even result in failure of the structure in service. In this paper, an analytical sensitivity analysis method of the shape precision and cable tensions with respect to the parameters carrying uncertainty was studied. Based on the sensitivity analysis, an optimal design procedure was proposed to alleviate the effects of the parameters that carry uncertainty. The validity of the calculated sensitivities is examined by those computed by a finite difference method. Comparison with a traditional design method shows that the presented design procedure can remarkably reduce the influence of the uncertainties on the antenna performance. Moreover, the results suggest that especially slender front net cables, thick tension ties, relatively slender boundary cables and high tension level can improve the ability of cable-network antenna structures to resist the effects of the uncertainties on the antenna performance.

  4. Deterministic methods for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Lucius, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. This paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. The paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. The paper demonstrates the deterministic approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as applied to a sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole. The sample problem is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. The DUA method gives a more accurate result based upon only two model executions compared to fifty executions in the statistical case

  5. The Role of Numerical Methods in the Sensitivity Analysis of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical modelling of physiochemical interaction in the framework of industrial and environmental physics which relies on an initial value problem is defined by a first order ordinary differential equation. Two numerical methods of studying sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction data are developed.

  6. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  7. PROMETHEE Method and Sensitivity Analysis in the Software Application for the Support of Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Moldrik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available PROMETHEE is one of methods, which fall into multi-criteria analysis (MCA. The MCA, as the name itself indicates, deals with the evaluation of particular variants according to several criteria. Developed software application (MCA8 for the support of multi-criteria decision-making was upgraded about PROMETHEE method and a graphic tool, which enables the execution of the sensitivity analysis. This analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. The MCA8 software application with mentioned graphic upgrade was developed for purposes of solving multi-criteria decision tasks. In the MCA8 is possible to perform sensitivity analysis by a simple form – through column graphs. We can change criteria significances (weights in these column graphs directly and watch the changes of the order of variants immediately.

  8. An adjoint method of sensitivity analysis for residual vibrations of structures subject to impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Kun; Cheng, Gengdong

    2018-03-01

    For structures subject to impact loads, the residual vibration reduction is more and more important as the machines become faster and lighter. An efficient sensitivity analysis of residual vibration with respect to structural or operational parameters is indispensable for using a gradient based optimization algorithm, which reduces the residual vibration in either active or passive way. In this paper, an integrated quadratic performance index is used as the measure of the residual vibration, since it globally measures the residual vibration response and its calculation can be simplified greatly with Lyapunov equation. Several sensitivity analysis approaches for performance index were developed based on the assumption that the initial excitations of residual vibration were given and independent of structural design. Since the resulting excitations by the impact load often depend on structural design, this paper aims to propose a new efficient sensitivity analysis method for residual vibration of structures subject to impacts to consider the dependence. The new method is developed by combining two existing methods and using adjoint variable approach. Three numerical examples are carried out and demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The numerical results show that the dependence of initial excitations on structural design variables may strongly affects the accuracy of sensitivities.

  9. Sensitive emission spectrometric method for the analysis of airborne particulate matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimae, A.

    1975-01-01

    A rapid and sensitive emission spectrometric method for the routine analysis of airborne particulate matter collected on the glass fiber filter is reported. The method is a powder--dc arc technique involving no chemical pre-enrichment procedures. The elements--Ag, BA: Be, Bi, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ga, La, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sn, V, Y, Yb, and Zn--were determined. (U.S.)

  10. Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, J.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method's independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to two widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991) and the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an

  11. Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedford, Tim; Bayley, Clare; Revie, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    This paper reports a sensitivity analysis of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method for Human Reliability Analysis. We consider three different aspects: the difference between the outputs of the Basic and Extended methods, on the same HRA scenario; the variability in outputs through the choices made for common performance conditions (CPCs); and the variability in outputs through the assignment of choices for cognitive function failures (CFFs). We discuss the problem of interpreting categories when applying the method, compare its quantitative structure to that of first generation methods and discuss also how dependence is modelled with the approach. We show that the control mode intervals used in the Basic method are too narrow to be consistent with the Extended method. This motivates a new screening method that gives improved accuracy with respect to the Basic method, in the sense that (on average) halves the uncertainty associated with the Basic method. We make some observations on the design of a screening method that are generally applicable in Risk Analysis. Finally, we propose a new method of combining CPC weights with nominal probabilities so that the calculated probabilities are always in range (i.e. between 0 and 1), while satisfying sensible properties that are consistent with the overall CREAM method

  12. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul; Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon

    2013-01-01

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle

  13. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon [LIG Nex1, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-04-15

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle.

  14. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  15. An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

    2012-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

  16. Application of perturbation methods for sensitivity analysis for nuclear power plant steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurjao, Emir Candeia

    1996-02-01

    The differential and GPT (Generalized Perturbation Theory) formalisms of the Perturbation Theory were applied in this work to a simplified U-tubes steam generator model to perform sensitivity analysis. The adjoint and importance equations, with the corresponding expressions for the sensitivity coefficients, were derived for this steam generator model. The system was numerically was numerically solved in a Fortran program, called GEVADJ, in order to calculate the sensitivity coefficients. A transient loss of forced primary coolant in the nuclear power plant Angra-1 was used as example case. The average and final values of functionals: secondary pressure and enthalpy were studied in relation to changes in the secondary feedwater flow, enthalpy and total volume in secondary circuit. Absolute variations in the above functionals were calculated using the perturbative methods, considering the variations in the feedwater flow and total secondary volume. Comparison with the same variations obtained via direct model showed in general good agreement, demonstrating the potentiality of perturbative methods for sensitivity analysis of nuclear systems. (author)

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Methods Regarding Hydromorphologic Data Derivation Methods to Determine Environmental Water Requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Shokoohi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the accuracy of hydraulic methods in determining environmental flow requirements. Despite the vital importance of deriving river cross sectional data for hydraulic methods, few studies have focused on the criteria for deriving this data. The present study shows that the depth of cross section has a meaningful effect on the results obtained from hydraulic methods and that, considering fish as the index species for river habitat analysis, an optimum depth of 1 m should be assumed for deriving information from cross sections. The second important parameter required for extracting the geometric and hydraulic properties of rivers is the selection of an appropriate depth increment; ∆y. In the present research, this parameter was found to be equal to 1 cm. The uncertainty of the environmental discharge evaluation, when allocating water in areas with water scarcity, should be kept as low as possible. The Manning friction coefficient (n is an important factor in river discharge calculation. Using a range of "n" equal to 3 times the standard deviation for the study area, it is shown that the influence of friction coefficient on the estimation of environmental flow is much less than that on the calculation of river discharge.

  18. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Reactor Physics Problems : Method Development for Multi-Physics in Reactors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perkó, Z.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents novel adjoint and spectral methods for the sensitivity and uncertainty (S&U) analysis of multi-physics problems encountered in the field of reactor physics. The first part focuses on the steady state of reactors and extends the adjoint sensitivity analysis methods well

  19. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Castaings

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.

    In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.

    It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.

    For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.

    Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  20. Application of perturbation methods and sensitivity analysis to water hammer problems in hydraulic networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balino, Jorge L.; Larreteguy, Axel E.; Andrade Lima, Fernando R.

    1995-01-01

    The differential method was applied to the sensitivity analysis for water hammer problems in hydraulic networks. Starting from the classical water hammer equations in a single-phase liquid with friction, the state vector comprising the piezometric head and the velocity was defined. Applying the differential method the adjoint operator, the adjoint equations with the general form of their boundary conditions, and the general form of the bilinear concomitant were calculated. The discretized adjoint equations and the corresponding boundary conditions were programmed and solved by using the so called method of characteristics. As an example, a constant-level tank connected through a pipe to a valve discharging to atmosphere was considered. The bilinear concomitant was calculated for this particular case. The corresponding sensitivity coefficients due to the variation of different parameters by using both the differential method and the response surface generated by the computer code WHAT were also calculated. The results obtained with these methods show excellent agreement. (author). 11 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  1. Determining the sensitivity of Data Envelopment Analysis method used in airport benchmarking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea BOSCOIANU

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there were some important changes in the airport industry, caused by the liberalization of the air transportation market. Until recently airports were considered infrastructure elements, and they were evaluated only by traffic values or their maximum capacity. Gradual orientation towards commercial led to the need of finding another ways of evaluation, more efficiency oriented. The existing methods for assessing efficiency used for other production units were not suitable to be used in case of airports due to specific features and high complexity of airport operations. In the last years there were some papers that proposed the Data Envelopment Analysis as a method for assessing the operational efficiency in order to conduct the benchmarking. This method offers the possibility of dealing with a large number of variables of different types, which represents the main advantage of this method and also recommends it as a good benchmarking tool for the airports management. This paper goal is to determine the sensitivity of this method in relation with its inputs and outputs. A Data Envelopment Analysis is conducted for 128 airports worldwide, in both input- and output-oriented measures, and the results are analysed against some inputs and outputs variations. Possible weaknesses of using DEA for assessing airports performance are revealed and analysed against this method advantages.

  2. Testing of the derivative method and Kruskal-Wallis technique for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prust, J.O.; Edwards, H.H.

    1985-04-01

    The Kruskal-Wallis method of one-way analysis of variance by ranks has proved successful in identifying input parameters which have an important influence on dose. This technique was extended to test for first order interactions between parameters. In view of a number of practical difficulties and the computing resources required to carry out a large number of runs, this test is not recommended for detecting interactions between parameters. The derivative method of sensitivity analysis examines the partial derivative values of each input parameter with dose at various points across the parameter range. Important input parameters are associated with high derivatives and the results agreed well with previous sensitivity studies. The derivative values also provided information on the data generation distributions to be used for the input parameters in order to concentrate sampling in the high dose region of the parameter space to improve the sampling efficiency. Furthermore, the derivative values provided information on parameter interactions, the feasibility of developing a high dose algorithm and formed the basis for developing a regression equation. (author)

  3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS as a methodical approach to the development of design strategies for environmentally sustainable buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Hanne Tine Ring

    . The research methodology applied in the project combines a literature study of descriptions of methodical approaches and built examples with a sensitivity analysis and a qualitative interview with two designers from a best practice example of a practice that has achieved environmentally sustainable...... architecture, such as: ecological, green, bio-climatic, sustainable, passive, low-energy and environmental architecture. This PhD project sets out to gain a better understanding of environmentally sustainable architecture and the methodical approaches applied in the development of this type of architecture...... an increase in scientific and political awareness, which has lead to an escalation in the number of research publications in the field, as well as, legislative demands for the energy consumption of buildings. The publications in the field refer to many different approaches to environmentally sustainable...

  4. A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad, E-mail: pourgolmohammad@sut.ac.ir [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba [Building & Housing Research Center, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepanloo, Kamran [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • Existing uncertainty ranking methods prove inconsistent for TH applications. • Introduction of a new method for ranking sources of uncertainty in TH codes. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • The importance of parameters is calculated by a limited number of TH code executions. • Methodology is applied successfully on LOFT-LB1 test facility. - Abstract: In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility.

  5. A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba; Sepanloo, Kamran

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Existing uncertainty ranking methods prove inconsistent for TH applications. • Introduction of a new method for ranking sources of uncertainty in TH codes. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • The importance of parameters is calculated by a limited number of TH code executions. • Methodology is applied successfully on LOFT-LB1 test facility. - Abstract: In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility.

  6. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  7. A Sensitivity Analysis Method to Study the Behavior of Complex Process-based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugnach, M.; Neilson, R.; Bolte, J.

    2001-12-01

    The use of process-based models as a tool for scientific inquiry is becoming increasingly relevant in ecosystem studies. Process-based models are artificial constructs that simulate the system by mechanistically mimicking the functioning of its component processes. Structurally, a process-based model can be characterized, in terms of its processes and the relationships established among them. Each process comprises a set of functional relationships among several model components (e.g., state variables, parameters and input data). While not encoded explicitly, the dynamics of the model emerge from this set of components and interactions organized in terms of processes. It is the task of the modeler to guarantee that the dynamics generated are appropriate and semantically equivalent to the phenomena being modeled. Despite the availability of techniques to characterize and understand model behavior, they do not suffice to completely and easily understand how a complex process-based model operates. For example, sensitivity analysis studies model behavior by determining the rate of change in model output as parameters or input data are varied. One of the problems with this approach is that it considers the model as a "black box", and it focuses on explaining model behavior by analyzing the relationship input-output. Since, these models have a high degree of non-linearity, understanding how the input affects an output can be an extremely difficult task. Operationally, the application of this technique may constitute a challenging task because complex process-based models are generally characterized by a large parameter space. In order to overcome some of these difficulties, we propose a method of sensitivity analysis to be applicable to complex process-based models. This method focuses sensitivity analysis at the process level, and it aims to determine how sensitive the model output is to variations in the processes. Once the processes that exert the major influence in

  8. An efficient sensitivity analysis method for modified geometry of Macpherson suspension based on Pearson correlation coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shojaeefard, Mohammad Hasan; Khalkhali, Abolfazl; Yarmohammadisatri, Sadegh

    2017-06-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to propose a new method for designing Macpherson suspension, based on the Sobol indices in terms of Pearson correlation which determines the importance of each member on the behaviour of vehicle suspension. The formulation of dynamic analysis of Macpherson suspension system is developed using the suspension members as the modified links in order to achieve the desired kinematic behaviour. The mechanical system is replaced with an equivalent constrained links and then kinematic laws are utilised to obtain a new modified geometry of Macpherson suspension. The equivalent mechanism of Macpherson suspension increased the speed of analysis and reduced its complexity. The ADAMS/CAR software is utilised to simulate a full vehicle, Renault Logan car, in order to analyse the accuracy of modified geometry model. An experimental 4-poster test rig is considered for validating both ADAMS/CAR simulation and analytical geometry model. Pearson correlation coefficient is applied to analyse the sensitivity of each suspension member according to vehicle objective functions such as sprung mass acceleration, etc. Besides this matter, the estimation of Pearson correlation coefficient between variables is analysed in this method. It is understood that the Pearson correlation coefficient is an efficient method for analysing the vehicle suspension which leads to a better design of Macpherson suspension system.

  9. Assessing the Risk of Secondary Transfer Via Fingerprint Brush Contamination Using Enhanced Sensitivity DNA Analysis Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolivar, Paula-Andrea; Tracey, Martin; McCord, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    Experiments were performed to determine the extent of cross-contamination of DNA resulting from secondary transfer due to fingerprint brushes used on multiple items of evidence. Analysis of both standard and low copy number (LCN) STR was performed. Two different procedures were used to enhance sensitivity, post-PCR cleanup and increased cycle number. Under standard STR typing procedures, some additional alleles were produced that were not present in the controls or blanks; however, there was insufficient data to include the contaminant donor as a contributor. Inclusion of the contaminant donor did occur for one sample using post-PCR cleanup. Detection of the contaminant donor occurred for every replicate of the 31 cycle amplifications; however, using LCN interpretation recommendations for consensus profiles, only one sample would include the contaminant donor. Our results indicate that detection of secondary transfer of DNA can occur through fingerprint brush contamination and is enhanced using LCN-DNA methods. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Lake and Reservoir Evaporation Estimation: Sensitivity Analysis and Ranking Existing Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    maysam majidi

    2016-02-01

    were acquired from the Doosti Dam weather station. Relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and precipitation were acquired from the Pol−Khatoon weather station. Dew point temperature and sunshine data were collected from the Sarakhs weather station. Lake area was estimated from hypsometric curve in relation to lake level data. Temperature measurements were often performed in 16−day periods or biweekly from September 2011 to September 2012. Temperature profile of the lake (required for lake evaporation estimation was measured at different points of the reservoir using a portable multi−meter. The eighteen existing methods were compared and ranked based on Bowen ratio energy balance method (BREB. Results and Discussion: The estimated annual evaporation values by all of the applied methods in this study, ranged from 21 to 113mcm (million cubic meters. BREB annual evaporation obtained value was equal to 69.86mcm and evaporation rate averaged 5.47mm d-1 during the study period. According to the results, there is a relatively large difference between the obtained evaporation values from the adopted methods. The sensitivity analysis of evaporation methods for some input parameters indicated that the Hamon method (Eq. 16 was the most sensitive to the input parameters followed by the Brutsaert−Stricker and BREB, and radiation−temperature methods (Makkink, Jensen−Haise and Stephen−Stewart had the least sensitivity to input data. Besides, the air temperature, solar radiation (sunshine data, water surface temperature and wind speed data had the most effect on lake evaporation estimations, respectively. Finally, all evaporation estimation methods in this study have been ranked based on RMSD values. On a daily basis, the Jensen−Haise and the Makkink (solar radiation, temperature group, Penman (Combination group and Hamon (temperature, day length group methods had a relatively reasonable performance. As the results on a monthly scale, the Jensen−Haise and

  11. Inverse modelling of atmospheric tracers: non-Gaussian methods and second-order sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bocquet

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available For a start, recent techniques devoted to the reconstruction of sources of an atmospheric tracer at continental scale are introduced. A first method is based on the principle of maximum entropy on the mean and is briefly reviewed here. A second approach, which has not been applied in this field yet, is based on an exact Bayesian approach, through a maximum a posteriori estimator. The methods share common grounds, and both perform equally well in practice. When specific prior hypotheses on the sources are taken into account such as positivity, or boundedness, both methods lead to purposefully devised cost-functions. These cost-functions are not necessarily quadratic because the underlying assumptions are not Gaussian. As a consequence, several mathematical tools developed in data assimilation on the basis of quadratic cost-functions in order to establish a posteriori analysis, need to be extended to this non-Gaussian framework. Concomitantly, the second-order sensitivity analysis needs to be adapted, as well as the computations of the averaging kernels of the source and the errors obtained in the reconstruction. All of these developments are applied to a real case of tracer dispersion: the European Tracer Experiment [ETEX]. Comparisons are made between a least squares cost function (similar to the so-called 4D-Var approach and a cost-function which is not based on Gaussian hypotheses. Besides, the information content of the observations which is used in the reconstruction is computed and studied on the application case. A connection with the degrees of freedom for signal is also established. As a by-product of these methodological developments, conclusions are drawn on the information content of the ETEX dataset as seen from the inverse modelling point of view.

  12. Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

  13. Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

    2017-12-21

    Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

  14. 'PSA-SPN' - A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Method Using Stochastic Petri Nets: Application to a Production Line System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel

    2009-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.

  15. Segmental analysis of amphetamines in hair using a sensitive UHPLC-MS/MS method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakobsson, Gerd; Kronstrand, Robert

    2014-06-01

    A sensitive and robust ultra high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS) method was developed and validated for quantification of amphetamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxy methamphetamine in hair samples. Segmented hair (10 mg) was incubated in 2M sodium hydroxide (80°C, 10 min) before liquid-liquid extraction with isooctane followed by centrifugation and evaporation of the organic phase to dryness. The residue was reconstituted in methanol:formate buffer pH 3 (20:80). The total run time was 4 min and after optimization of UHPLC-MS/MS-parameters validation included selectivity, matrix effects, recovery, process efficiency, calibration model and range, lower limit of quantification, precision and bias. The calibration curve ranged from 0.02 to 12.5 ng/mg, and the recovery was between 62 and 83%. During validation the bias was less than ±7% and the imprecision was less than 5% for all analytes. In routine analysis, fortified control samples demonstrated an imprecision <13% and control samples made from authentic hair demonstrated an imprecision <26%. The method was applied to samples from a controlled study of amphetamine intake as well as forensic hair samples previously analyzed with an ultra high performance liquid chromatography time of flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC-TOF-MS) screening method. The proposed method was suitable for quantification of these drugs in forensic cases including violent crimes, autopsy cases, drug testing and re-granting of driving licences. This study also demonstrated that if hair samples are divided into several short segments, the time point for intake of a small dose of amphetamine can be estimated, which might be useful when drug facilitated crimes are investigated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic fracturing Using an extended finite element method for the PKN model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garikapati, Hasini; Verhoosel, Clemens V.; van Brummelen, Harald; Diez, Pedro; Papadrakakis, M.; Papadopoulos, V.; Stefanou, G.; Plevris, V.

    2016-01-01

    Hydraulic fracturing is a process that is surrounded by uncertainty, as available data on e.g. rock formations is scant and available models are still rudimentary. In this contribution sensitivity analysis is carried out as first step in studying the uncertainties in the model. This is done to

  17. Multisite-multivariable sensitivity analysis of distributed watershed models: enhancing the perceptions from computationally frugal methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper assesses the impact of different likelihood functions in identifying sensitive parameters of the highly parameterized, spatially distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model for multiple variables at multiple sites. The global one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method of Morr...

  18. Sensitivity and Interaction Analysis Based on Sobol’ Method and Its Application in a Distributed Flood Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is a fundamental approach to identify the most significant and sensitive parameters, helping us to understand complex hydrological models, particularly for time-consuming distributed flood forecasting models based on complicated theory with numerous parameters. Based on Sobol’ method, this study compared the sensitivity and interactions of distributed flood forecasting model parameters with and without accounting for correlation. Four objective functions: (1 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS; (2 water balance coefficient (WB; (3 peak discharge efficiency (EP; and (4 time to peak efficiency (ETP were implemented to the Liuxihe model with hourly rainfall-runoff data collected in the Nanhua Creek catchment, Pearl River, China. Contrastive results for the sensitivity and interaction analysis were also illustrated among small, medium, and large flood magnitudes. Results demonstrated that the choice of objective functions had no effect on the sensitivity classification, while it had great influence on the sensitivity ranking for both uncorrelated and correlated cases. The Liuxihe model behaved and responded uniquely to various flood conditions. The results also indicated that the pairwise parameters interactions revealed a non-ignorable contribution to the model output variance. Parameters with high first or total order sensitivity indices presented a corresponding high second order sensitivity indices and correlation coefficients with other parameters. Without considering parameter correlations, the variance contributions of highly sensitive parameters might be underestimated and those of normally sensitive parameters might be overestimated. This research laid a basic foundation to improve the understanding of complex model behavior.

  19. A relative quantitative Methylation-Sensitive Amplified Polymorphism (MSAP) method for the analysis of abiotic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarek, Piotr T; Orłowska, Renata; Niedziela, Agnieszka

    2017-04-21

    We present a new methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) approach for the evaluation of relative quantitative characteristics such as demethylation, de novo methylation, and preservation of methylation status of CCGG sequences, which are recognized by the isoschizomers HpaII and MspI. We applied the technique to analyze aluminum (Al)-tolerant and non-tolerant control and Al-stressed inbred triticale lines. The approach is based on detailed analysis of events affecting HpaII and MspI restriction sites in control and stressed samples, and takes advantage of molecular marker profiles generated by EcoRI/HpaII and EcoRI/MspI MSAP platforms. Five Al-tolerant and five non-tolerant triticale lines were exposed to aluminum stress using the physiologicaltest. Total genomic DNA was isolated from root tips of all tolerant and non-tolerant lines before and after Al stress following metAFLP and MSAP approaches. Based on codes reflecting events affecting cytosines within a given restriction site recognized by HpaII and MspI in control and stressed samples demethylation (DM), de novo methylation (DNM), preservation of methylated sites (MSP), and preservation of nonmethylatedsites (NMSP) were evaluated. MSAP profiles were used for Agglomerative hierarchicalclustering (AHC) based on Squared Euclidean distance and Ward's Agglomeration method whereas MSAP characteristics for ANOVA. Relative quantitative MSAP analysis revealed that both Al-tolerant and non-tolerant triticale lines subjected to Al stress underwent demethylation, with demethylation of CG predominating over CHG. The rate of de novo methylation in the CG context was ~3-fold lower than demethylation, whereas de novo methylation of CHG was observed only in Al-tolerant lines. Our relative quantitative MSAP approach, based on methylation events affecting cytosines within HpaII-MspI recognition sequences, was capable of quantifying de novo methylation, demethylation, methylation, and non-methylated status in control

  20. The use of graph theory in the sensitivity analysis of the model output: a second order screening method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campolongo, Francesca; Braddock, Roger

    1999-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis screening methods aim to isolate the most important factors in experiments involving a large number of significant factors and interactions. This paper extends the one-factor-at-a-time screening method proposed by Morris. The new method, in addition to the 'overall' sensitivity measures already provided by the traditional Morris method, offers estimates of the two-factor interaction effects. The number of model evaluations required is O(k 2 ), where k is the number of model input factors. The efficient sampling strategy in the parameter space is based on concepts of graph theory and on the solution of the 'handcuffed prisoner problem'

  1. Technical Note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Herman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling warrants a corresponding increase in diagnostic methods capable of analyzing complex models with large numbers of parameters. Sobol' sensitivity analysis has proven to be a valuable tool for diagnostic analyses of hydrologic models. However, for many spatially distributed models, the Sobol' method requires a prohibitive number of model evaluations to reliably decompose output variance across the full set of parameters. We investigate the potential of the method of Morris, a screening-based sensitivity approach, to provide results sufficiently similar to those of the Sobol' method at a greatly reduced computational expense. The methods are benchmarked on the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM over a six-month period in the Blue River watershed, Oklahoma, USA. The Sobol' method required over six million model evaluations to ensure reliable sensitivity indices, corresponding to more than 30 000 computing hours and roughly 180 gigabytes of storage space. We find that the method of Morris is able to correctly screen the most and least sensitive parameters with 300 times fewer model evaluations, requiring only 100 computing hours and 1 gigabyte of storage space. The method of Morris proves to be a promising diagnostic approach for global sensitivity analysis of highly parameterized, spatially distributed hydrologic models.

  2. A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Noh, Jae Man [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis.

  3. A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung; Noh, Jae Man

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis

  4. A relative quantitative Methylation-Sensitive Amplified Polymorphism (MSAP) method for the analysis of abiotic stress

    OpenAIRE

    Bednarek, Piotr T.; Or?owska, Renata; Niedziela, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    Background We present a new methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) approach for the evaluation of relative quantitative characteristics such as demethylation, de novo methylation, and preservation of methylation status of CCGG sequences, which are recognized by the isoschizomers HpaII and MspI. We applied the technique to analyze aluminum (Al)-tolerant and non-tolerant control and Al-stressed inbred triticale lines. The approach is based on detailed analysis of events affecting H...

  5. Increased sensitivity of OSHA method analysis of diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione in air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBouf, Ryan; Simmons, Michael

    2017-05-01

    Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) operated in selected ion monitoring mode was used to enhance the sensitivity of OSHA Methods 1013/1016 for measuring diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione in air samples. The original methods use flame ionization detection which cannot achieve the required sensitivity to quantify samples at or below the NIOSH recommended exposure limits (REL: 5 ppb for diacetyl and 9.3 ppb for 2,3-pentanedione) when sampling for both diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione. OSHA Method 1012 was developed to measure diacetyl at lower levels but requires an electron capture detector, and a sample preparation time of 36 hours. Using GC/MS allows detection of these two alpha-diketones at lower levels than OSHA Method 1012 for diacetyl and OSHA Method 1016 for 2,3-pentanedione. Acetoin and 2,3-hexanedione may also be measured using this technique. Method quantification limits were 1.1 ppb for diacetyl (22% of the REL), 1.1 ppb for 2,3-pentanedione (12% of the REL), 1.1 ppb for 2,3-hexanedione, and 2.1 ppb for acetoin. Average extraction efficiencies above the limit of quantitation were 100% for diacetyl, 92% for 2,3-pentanedione, 89% for 2,3-hexanedione, and 87% for acetoin. Mass spectrometry with OSHA Methods 1013/1016 could be used by analytical laboratories to provide more sensitive and accurate measures of exposure to diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione.

  6. Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.

    1981-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research

  7. A New Approach for the Analysis of Hyperspectral Data: Theory and Sensitivity Analysis of the Moment Distance Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Ariel L. Salas

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the Moment Distance (MD method to advance spectral analysis in vegetation studies. It was developed to take advantage of the information latent in the shape of the reflectance curve that is not available from other spectral indices. Being mathematically simple but powerful, the approach does not require any curve transformation, such as smoothing or derivatives. Here, we show the formulation of the MD index (MDI and demonstrate its potential for vegetation studies. We simulated leaf and canopy reflectance samples derived from the combination of the PROSPECT and SAIL models to understand the sensitivity of the new method to leaf and canopy parameters. We observed reasonable agreements between vegetation parameters and the MDI when using the 600 to 750 nm wavelength range, and we saw stronger agreements in the narrow red-edge region 720 to 730 nm. Results suggest that the MDI is more sensitive to the Chl content, especially at higher amounts (Chl > 40 mg/cm2 compared to other indices such as NDVI, EVI, and WDRVI. Finally, we found an indirect relationship of MDI against the changes of the magnitude of the reflectance around the red trough with differing values of LAI.

  8. Space-partition method for the variance-based sensitivity analysis: Optimal partition scheme and comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai, Qingqing; Yang, Jun; Zhao, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Variance-based sensitivity analysis has been widely studied and asserted itself among practitioners. Monte Carlo simulation methods are well developed in the calculation of variance-based sensitivity indices but they do not make full use of each model run. Recently, several works mentioned a scatter-plot partitioning method to estimate the variance-based sensitivity indices from given data, where a single bunch of samples is sufficient to estimate all the sensitivity indices. This paper focuses on the space-partition method in the estimation of variance-based sensitivity indices, and its convergence and other performances are investigated. Since the method heavily depends on the partition scheme, the influence of the partition scheme is discussed and the optimal partition scheme is proposed based on the minimized estimator's variance. A decomposition and integration procedure is proposed to improve the estimation quality for higher order sensitivity indices. The proposed space-partition method is compared with the more traditional method and test cases show that it outperforms the traditional one

  9. Radioimmunoassay (RIA), a highly specific, extremely sensitive quantitative method of analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strecker, H; Hachmann, H; Seidel, L [Farbwerke Hoechst A.G., Frankfurt am Main (Germany, F.R.). Radiochemisches Lab.

    1979-02-01

    Radioimmunoassay is an analytical method combining the sensitivity of radioactivity measurements and the specificity of the antigen-antibody-reaction. Thus, substances can be measured in concentrations as low as picograms per milliliter serum besides a millionfold excess of otherwise disturbing material (for example in serum). The method is simple to perform and is at present mainly used in the field of endocrinology. Further areas of possible application are in the diagnosis of infectious disease, drug research, environmental protection, forensic medicine as well as general analytics. Quantities of radioactivity, exclusively used in vitro, are in the nano-Curie range. Therefore the radiation dose is negligible.

  10. Beyond sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2018-01-01

    of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...

  11. Advanced surrogate model and sensitivity analysis methods for sodium fast reactor accident assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrel, A.; Marie, N.; De Lozzo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Within the framework of the generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors, the safety in case of severe accidents is assessed. From this statement, CEA has developed a new physical tool to model the accident initiated by the Total Instantaneous Blockage (TIB) of a sub-assembly. This TIB simulator depends on many uncertain input parameters. This paper aims at proposing a global methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques in order to perform a global sensitivity analysis of this TIB simulator. The objective is to identify the most influential uncertain inputs for the various TIB outputs involved in the safety analysis. The proposed statistical methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques enables to take into account the constraints on the TIB simulator outputs (positivity constraints) and to deal simultaneously with various outputs. To do this, a space-filling design is used and the corresponding TIB model simulations are performed. Based on this learning sample, an efficient constrained Gaussian process metamodel is fitted on each TIB model outputs. Then, using the metamodels, classical sensitivity analyses are made for each TIB output. Multivariate global sensitivity analyses based on aggregated indices are also performed, providing additional valuable information. Main conclusions on the influence of each uncertain input are derived. - Highlights: • Physical-statistical tool for Sodium Fast Reactors TIB accident. • 27 uncertain parameters (core state, lack of physical knowledge) are highlighted. • Constrained Gaussian process efficiently predicts TIB outputs (safety criteria). • Multivariate sensitivity analyses reveal that three inputs are mainly influential. • The type of corium propagation (thermal or hydrodynamic) is the most influential

  12. Mehar Methods for Fuzzy Optimal Solution and Sensitivity Analysis of Fuzzy Linear Programming with Symmetric Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukhpreet Kaur Sidhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The drawbacks of the existing methods to obtain the fuzzy optimal solution of such linear programming problems, in which coefficients of the constraints are represented by real numbers and all the other parameters as well as variables are represented by symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, are pointed out, and to resolve these drawbacks, a new method (named as Mehar method is proposed for the same linear programming problems. Also, with the help of proposed Mehar method, a new method, much easy as compared to the existing methods, is proposed to deal with the sensitivity analysis of the same type of linear programming problems.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of the use of Life Cycle Impact Assessment methods: a case study on building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bueno, Cristiane; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Rossignolo, Joao Adriano

    2016-01-01

    The main aim of this research is to perform a sensitivity analysis of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) case study to understand if the use of different Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods may lead to different conclusions by decision makers and stakeholders. A complete LCA was applied to non...

  14. A sensitivity analysis method for the body segment inertial parameters based on ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futamure, Sumire; Bonnet, Vincent; Dumas, Raphael; Venture, Gentiane

    2017-11-07

    This paper presents a method allowing a simple and efficient sensitivity analysis of dynamics parameters of complex whole-body human model. The proposed method is based on the ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices, developed initially in robotics system identification theory, and involved in the equations of motion of the human body. The regressor matrices are linear relatively to the segment inertial parameters allowing us to use simple sensitivity analysis methods. The sensitivity analysis method was applied over gait dynamics and kinematics data of nine subjects and with a 15 segments 3D model of the locomotor apparatus. According to the proposed sensitivity indices, 76 segments inertial parameters out the 150 of the mechanical model were considered as not influent for gait. The main findings were that the segment masses were influent and that, at the exception of the trunk, moment of inertia were not influent for the computation of the ground reaction forces and moments and the joint moments. The same method also shows numerically that at least 90% of the lower-limb joint moments during the stance phase can be estimated only from a force-plate and kinematics data without knowing any of the segment inertial parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Sensitive method for the analysis of carbohydrates by gas chromatography of 3H-labeled alditol acetates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prehm, P.; Scheid, A.

    1978-01-01

    A highly sensitive method has been developed for the analysis of carbohydrates from glycoproteins or lipopolysaccharides. The method is based on labeling the carbohydrates with [ 3 H] sodium borohydride, acetylating the resulting alditols and separating them by gas chromatography. The gas effluent is fractionated by trapping on silicone-coated glass beads and the amount of radioactivity is determined. This permits the quantitation of as little as 0.2 nmoles monosaccharide with an accuracy of 10 to 15%. (Auth)

  16. Development of a sensitive GC-C-IRMS method for the analysis of androgens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polet, Michael; Van Gansbeke, Wim; Deventer, Koen; Van Eenoo, Peter

    2013-02-01

    The administration of anabolic steroids is one of the most important issues in doping control and is detectable through a change in the carbon isotopic composition of testosterone and/or its metabolites. Gas chromatography-combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS), however, remains a very laborious and expensive technique and substantial amounts of urine are needed to meet the sensitivity requirements of the IRMS. This can be problematic because only a limited amount of urine is available for anti-doping analysis on a broad spectrum of substances. In this work we introduce a new type of injection that increases the sensitivity of GC-C-IRMS by a factor of 13 and reduces the limit of detection, simply by using solvent vent injections instead of splitless injection. This drastically reduces the amount of urine required. On top of that, by only changing the injection technique, the detection parameters of the IRMS are not affected and there is no loss in linearity. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Molecular analysis of dolphin morbillivirus: A new sensitive detection method based on nested RT-PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centelleghe, Cinzia; Beffagna, Giorgia; Zanetti, Rossella; Zappulli, Valentina; Di Guardo, Giovanni; Mazzariol, Sandro

    2016-09-01

    Cetacean Morbillivirus (CeMV) has been identified as the most pathogenic virus for cetaceans. Over the past three decades, this RNA virus has caused several outbreaks of lethal disease in odontocetes and mysticetes worldwide. Isolation and identification of CeMV RNA is very challenging in whales because of the poor preservation status frequently shown by tissues from stranded animals. Nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (nested RT-PCR) is used instead of conventional RT-PCR when it is necessary to increase the sensitivity and the specificity of the reaction. This study describes a new nested RT-PCR technique useful to amplify small amounts of the cDNA copy of Cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV) when it is present in scant quantity in whales' biological specimens. This technique was used to analyze different tissues (lung, brain, spleen and other lymphoid tissues) from one under human care seal and seven cetaceans stranded along the Italian coastline between October 2011 and September 2015. A well-characterized, 200 base pair (bp) fragment of the dolphin Morbillivirus (DMV) haemagglutinin (H) gene, obtained by nested RT-PCR, was sequenced and used to confirm DMV positivity in all the eight marine mammals under study. In conclusion, this nested RT-PCR protocol can represent a sensitive detection method to identify CeMV-positive, poorly preserved tissue samples. Furthermore, this is also a rather inexpensive molecular technique, relatively easy to apply. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The sensitivity analysis as a method of quantifying the degree of uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manole Tatiana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the author relates about the uncertainty of any proposed investment or government policies. Taking in account this situation, it is necessary to do an analysis of proposed projects for implementation and from multiple choices to choose the project that is most advantageous. This is a general principle. The financial science provides to the researchers a set of tools with what we can identify the best project. The author aims to examine three projects that have the same features, applying them to various methods of financial analysis, such as net present value (NPV, the discount rate (SAR, recovery time (TR, additional income (VS and return on invested (RR. All these tools of financial analysis are in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA and have the aim to streamline the public money that are invested to achieve successful performance.

  19. The sensitivity analysis by adjoint method for the uncertainty evaluation of the CATHARE-2 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barre, F.; de Crecy, A.; Perret, C. [French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Grenoble (France)

    1995-09-01

    This paper presents the application of the DASM (Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Method) to CATHARE 2 thermal-hydraulics code. In a first part, the basis of this method is presented. The mathematical model of the CATHARE 2 code is based on the two fluid six equation model. It is discretized using implicit time discretization and it is relatively easy to implement this method in the code. The DASM is the ASM directly applied to the algebraic system of the discretized code equations which has been demonstrated to be the only solution of the mathematical model. The ASM is an integral part of the new version 1.4 of CATHARE. It acts as a post-processing module. It has been qualified by comparison with the {open_quotes}brute force{close_quotes} technique. In a second part, an application of the DASM in CATHARE 2 is presented. It deals with the determination of the uncertainties of the constitutive relationships, which is a compulsory step for calculating the final uncertainty of a given response. First, the general principles of the method are explained: the constitutive relationship are represented by several parameters and the aim is to calculate the variance-covariance matrix of these parameters. The experimental results of the separate effect tests used to establish the correlation are considered. The variance of the corresponding results calculated by CATHARE are estimated by comparing experiment and calculation. A DASM calculation is carried out to provide the derivatives of the responses. The final covariance matrix is obtained by combination of the variance of the responses and those derivatives. Then, the application of this method to a simple case-the blowdown Canon experiment-is presented. This application has been successfully performed.

  20. The sensitivity analysis by adjoint method for the uncertainty evaluation of the CATHARE-2 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barre, F.; de Crecy, A.; Perret, C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents the application of the DASM (Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Method) to CATHARE 2 thermal-hydraulics code. In a first part, the basis of this method is presented. The mathematical model of the CATHARE 2 code is based on the two fluid six equation model. It is discretized using implicit time discretization and it is relatively easy to implement this method in the code. The DASM is the ASM directly applied to the algebraic system of the discretized code equations which has been demonstrated to be the only solution of the mathematical model. The ASM is an integral part of the new version 1.4 of CATHARE. It acts as a post-processing module. It has been qualified by comparison with the open-quotes brute forceclose quotes technique. In a second part, an application of the DASM in CATHARE 2 is presented. It deals with the determination of the uncertainties of the constitutive relationships, which is a compulsory step for calculating the final uncertainty of a given response. First, the general principles of the method are explained: the constitutive relationship are represented by several parameters and the aim is to calculate the variance-covariance matrix of these parameters. The experimental results of the separate effect tests used to establish the correlation are considered. The variance of the corresponding results calculated by CATHARE are estimated by comparing experiment and calculation. A DASM calculation is carried out to provide the derivatives of the responses. The final covariance matrix is obtained by combination of the variance of the responses and those derivatives. Then, the application of this method to a simple case-the blowdown Canon experiment-is presented. This application has been successfully performed

  1. Analysis of charge transport in gels containing polyoxometallates using methods of different sensitivity to migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caban, Karolina; Lewera, Adam; Zukowska, Grazyna Z; Kulesza, Pawel J; Stojek, Zbigniew; Jeffrey, Kenneth R

    2006-08-04

    Two methods have been used for examination of transport of charge in gels soaked with DMF and containing dissolved polyoxometallates. The first method is based on the analysis of both Cottrellian and steady-state currents and therefore is capable of giving the concentration of the electroactive redox centres and their transport (diffusion-type) coefficient. The second method provides the real diffusion coefficients, i.e. transport coefficients free of migrational influence, for both the substrate and the product of the electrode reaction. Several gels based on poly(methyl methacrylate), with charged (addition of 1-acrylamido-2-methyl-2-propanesulphonic acid to the polymerization mixture) and uncharged chains, have been used in the investigation. The ratio obtained for the diffusion coefficient (second method) and transport coefficient (first method) was smaller for the gels containing charged polymer chains than for the gels with uncharged chains. In part these changes could be explained by the contribution of migration to the transport of polyoxomatallates in the gels. However, the impact of the changes in the polymer-channel capacity at the electrode surface while the electrode process proceeds was also considered. These structural changes should affect differently the methods based on different time domains.

  2. Methods of high-sensitive analysis of actinides in liquid radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diakov, Alexandre A.; Perekhozheva, Tatiana N.; Zlokazova, Elena I.

    2002-01-01

    A complex of methods has been developed to determine actinides in liquid radioactive wastes for solving the problems of radiation, nuclear and ecological safety of nuclear reactors. The main method is based on the radiochemical separation of U, Np-Pu, Am-Cm on ion-exchange and extraction columns. An identification of radionuclides and determination of their content are performed using alpha-spectrometry. The microconcentrations of the sum of the main fissile materials U-235 and Pu-239 are determined with the usage of plastic track detectors. An independent method of U-238 content determination is the neutron activation analysis. Am-241 content is possible to determine with gamma-spectrometry. (author)

  3. The lead cooled fast reactor benchmark Brest-300: analysis with sensitivity method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, V.; Orlov, V.; Mourogov, A.; Lecarpentier, D.; Ivanova, T.

    2005-01-01

    Lead cooled fast neutrons reactor is one of the most interesting candidates for the development of atomic energy. BREST-300 is a 300 MWe lead cooled fast reactor developed by the NIKIET (Russia) with a deterministic safety approach which aims to exclude reactivity margins greater than the delayed neutron fraction. The development of innovative reactors (lead coolant, nitride fuel...) and fuel cycles with new constraints such as cycle closure or actinide burning, requires new technologies and new nuclear data. In this connection, the tool and neutron data used for the calculational analysis of reactor characteristics requires thorough validation. NIKIET developed a reactor benchmark fitting of design type calculational tools (including neutron data). In the frame of technical exchanges between NIKIET and EDF (France), results of this benchmark calculation concerning the principal parameters of fuel evolution and safety parameters has been inter-compared, in order to estimate the uncertainties and validate the codes for calculations of this new kind of reactors. Different codes and cross-sections data have been used, and sensitivity studies have been performed to understand and quantify the uncertainties sources.The comparison of results shows that the difference on k eff value between ERANOS code with ERALIB1 library and the reference is of the same order of magnitude than the delayed neutron fraction. On the other hand, the discrepancy is more than twice bigger if JEF2.2 library is used with ERANOS. Analysis of discrepancies in calculation results reveals that the main effect is provided by the difference of nuclear data, namely U 238 , Pu 239 fission and capture cross sections and lead inelastic cross sections

  4. WHAT IF (Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of Immersed Boundary Method simulations of fluid flow in dense polydisperse random grain packings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knight Chris

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Polydisperse granular materials are ubiquitous in nature and industry. Despite this, knowledge of the momentum coupling between the fluid and solid phases in dense saturated grain packings comes almost exclusively from empirical correlations [2–4, 8] with monosized media. The Immersed Boundary Method (IBM is a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD modelling technique capable of resolving pore scale fluid flow and fluid-particle interaction forces in polydisperse media at the grain scale. Validation of the IBM in the low Reynolds number, high concentration limit was performed by comparing simulations of flow through ordered arrays of spheres with the boundary integral results of Zick and Homsy [10]. Random grain packings were studied with linearly graded particle size distributions with a range of coefficient of uniformity values (Cu = 1.01, 1.50, and 2.00 at a range of concentrations (ϕ ∈ [0.396; 0.681] in order to investigate the influence of polydispersity on drag and permeability. The sensitivity of the IBM results to the choice of radius retraction parameter [1] was investigated and a comparison was made between the predicted forces and the widely used Ergun correlation [3].

  6. Development of a sensitive and rapid method for rifampicin impurity analysis using supercritical fluid chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Wang, Jun; Yan, Zheng-Yu

    2015-10-10

    A novel simple, fast and efficient supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC) method was developed and compared with RPLC method for the separation and determination of impurities in rifampicin. The separation was performed using a packed diol column and a mobile phase B (modifier) consisting of methanol with 0.1% ammonium formate (w/v) and 2% water (v/v). Overall satisfactory resolutions and peak shapes for rifampicin quinone (RQ), rifampicin (RF), rifamycin SV (RSV), rifampicin N-oxide (RNO) and 3-formylrifamycinSV (3-FR) were obtained by optimization of the chromatography system. With gradient elution of mobile phase, all of the impurities and the active were separated within 4 min. Taking full advantage of features of SFC (such as particular selectivity, non-sloping baseline in gradient elution, and without injection solvent effects), the method was successfully used for determination of impurities in rifampicin, with more impurity peaks detected, better resolution achieved and much less analysis time needed compared with conventional reversed-phase liquid chromatography (RPLC) methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Methylated site display (MSD)-AFLP, a sensitive and affordable method for analysis of CpG methylation profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiba, Toshiki; Saito, Toshiyuki; Hayashi, Akiko; Sato, Shinji; Yunokawa, Harunobu; Maruyama, Toru; Fujibuchi, Wataru; Kurita, Hisaka; Tohyama, Chiharu; Ohsako, Seiichiroh

    2017-03-09

    It has been pointed out that environmental factors or chemicals can cause diseases that are developmental in origin. To detect abnormal epigenetic alterations in DNA methylation, convenient and cost-effective methods are required for such research, in which multiple samples are processed simultaneously. We here present methylated site display (MSD), a unique technique for the preparation of DNA libraries. By combining it with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis, we developed a new method, MSD-AFLP. Methylated site display libraries consist of only DNAs derived from DNA fragments that are CpG methylated at the 5' end in the original genomic DNA sample. To test the effectiveness of this method, CpG methylation levels in liver, kidney, and hippocampal tissues of mice were compared to examine if MSD-AFLP can detect subtle differences in the levels of tissue-specific differentially methylated CpGs. As a result, many CpG sites suspected to be tissue-specific differentially methylated were detected. Nucleotide sequences adjacent to these methyl-CpG sites were identified and we determined the methylation level by methylation-sensitive restriction endonuclease (MSRE)-PCR analysis to confirm the accuracy of AFLP analysis. The differences of the methylation level among tissues were almost identical among these methods. By MSD-AFLP analysis, we detected many CpGs showing less than 5% statistically significant tissue-specific difference and less than 10% degree of variability. Additionally, MSD-AFLP analysis could be used to identify CpG methylation sites in other organisms including humans. MSD-AFLP analysis can potentially be used to measure slight changes in CpG methylation level. Regarding the remarkable precision, sensitivity, and throughput of MSD-AFLP analysis studies, this method will be advantageous in a variety of epigenetics-based research.

  8. Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

    2016-05-01

    Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

  9. Aroma analysis and quality control of food using highly sensitive analytical methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayr, D.

    2003-02-01

    This thesis deals with the development of quality control methods for food based on headspace measurements by Proton-Transfer-Reaction Mass-Spectrometry (PTR-MS) and with aroma analysis of food using PTR-MS and Gas Chromatography-Olfactometry (GC-O). An objective method was developed for the determination of a herb extract's quality; this quality was checked by a sensory analysis until now. The concentrations of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of 81 different batches were measured by PTR-MS. Based on the sensory judgment of the customer, characteristic differences in the emissions of 'good' and 'bad' quality samples were identified and a method for the quality control of this herb extract was developed. This novel method enables the producing company to check and ensure that they are only selling high-quality products and therefore avoid complaints of the customer. Furthermore this method can be used for controlling, optimizing and automating the production process. VOCs emitted by meat were investigated using PTR-MS to develop a rapid, non-destructive and quantitative technique for determination of the microbial contamination of meat. Meat samples (beef, pork and poultry) that were wrapped into different kinds of packages (air and vacuum) were stored in at 4 o C for up to 13 days. The emitted VOCs were measured as a function of storage time and identified partly. The concentration of many of the measured VOCs, e.g. sulfur compounds like methanethiol, dimethylsulfide and dimethyldisulfide, largely increased over the storage time. There were big differences in the emissions of normal air- and vacuum-packed meat. VOCs typically emitted by air-packaged meat were methanethiol, dimethylsulfide and dimethyldisulfide, while ethanol and methanol were found in vacuum-packaged meat. A comparison of the PTR-MS results with those obtained by a bacteriological examination performed at the same time showed strong correlations (up to 99 %) between the

  10. A Sensitive Gold Nanoplasmonic SERS Quantitative Analysis Method for Sulfate in Serum Using Fullerene as Catalyst

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongning Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Fullerene exhibited strong catalysis of the redox reaction between HAuCl4 and trisodium citrate to form gold nanoplasmon with a strong surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS effect at 1615 cm−1 in the presence of Vitoria blue B molecule probes. When fullerene increased, the SERS peak enhanced linearly due to formation of more AuNPs as substrate. Upon addition of Ba2+, Ba2+ ions adsorb on the fullerene surface to inhibit the catalysis of fullerene that caused the SERS peak decreasing. Analyte SO42− combined with Ba2+ to form stable BaSO4 precipitate to release free fullerene that the catalysis recovered, and the SERS intensity increased linearly. Thus, a new SERS quantitative analysis method was established for the detection of sulfate in serum samples, with a linear range of 0.03–3.4 μM.

  11. Alternative global goodness metrics and sensitivity analysis: heuristics to check the robustness of conclusions from studies comparing virtual screening methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Robert P

    2008-02-01

    We introduce two ways of testing the robustness of conclusions from studies comparing virtual screening methods: alternative "global goodness" metrics and sensitivity analysis. While the robustness tests cannot eliminate all biases in virtual screening comparisons, they are useful as a "reality check" for any given study. To illustrate this, we apply them to a set of enrichments published in McGaughey et al. (J. Chem. Inf. Model. 2007, 47, 1504-1519) where 11 target protein/ligand combinations are tested on 2D and 3D similarity methods, plus docking. The major conclusions in that paper, for instance, that ligand-based methods are better than docking methods, hold up. However, some minor conclusions, such as Glide being the best docking method, do not.

  12. Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae

    2008-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.

  13. Sensitivity of Spaceborne and Ground Radar Comparison Results to Data Analysis Methods and Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Kenneth R.; Schwaller, Mathew

    2011-01-01

    With the availability of active weather radar observations from space from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TR.MM) satellite, numerous studies have been performed comparing PR reflectivity and derived rain rates to similar observations from ground-based weather radars (GR). These studies have used a variety of algorithms to compute matching PR and GR volumes for comparison. Most studies have used a fixed 3-dimensional Cartesian grid centered on the ground radar, onto which the PR and GR data are interpolated using a proprietary approach and/or commonly available GR analysis software (e.g., SPRINT, REORDER). Other studies have focused on the intersection of the PR and GR viewing geometries either explicitly or using a hybrid of the fixed grid and PR/GR common fields of view. For the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) of the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a prototype DPR/GR comparison algorithm based on similar TRMM PR data has been developed that defines the common volumes in terms of the geometric intersection of PR and GR rays, where smoothing of the PR and GR data are minimized and no interpolation is performed. The PR and GR volume-averaged reflectivity values of each sample volume are accompanied by descriptive metadata, for attributes including the variability and maximum of the reflectivity within the sample volume, and the fraction of range gates in the sample average having reflectivity values above an adjustable detection threshold (typically taken to be 18 dBZ for the PR). Sample volumes are further characterized by rain type (Stratiform or Convective), proximity to the melting layer, underlying surface (land/water/mixed), and the time difference between the PR and GR observations. The mean reflectivity differences between the PR and GR can differ between data sets produced by the different analysis methods; and for the GPM prototype, by the type of constraints and

  14. Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

  15. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, Tarandeep S.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Seshadri, Pranay; Ganju, Neil K.; Beudin, Alexis

    2017-12-01

    Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Kalra

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.

  17. Field test and sensitivity analysis of a sensible heat balance method to determine ice contents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil ice content impacts winter vadose zone hydrology. It may be possible to estimate changes in soil ice content with a sensible heat balance (SHB) method, using measurements from heat pulse (HP) sensors. Feasibility of the SHB method is unknown because of difficulties in measuring soil thermal pro...

  18. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  19. Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.

  20. Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis on Inverse Water-Rock Reactions with NETPATH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGraw, David [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States); Hershey, Ronald L. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries. The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little

  1. A Proposal on the Advanced Sampling Based Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Method for the Eigenvalue Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Song Hyun; Song, Myung Sub; Shin, Chang Ho; Noh, Jae Man

    2014-01-01

    In using the perturbation theory, the uncertainty of the response can be estimated by a single transport simulation, and therefore it requires small computational load. However, it has a disadvantage that the computation methodology must be modified whenever estimating different response type such as multiplication factor, flux, or power distribution. Hence, it is suitable for analyzing few responses with lots of perturbed parameters. Statistical approach is a sampling based method which uses randomly sampled cross sections from covariance data for analyzing the uncertainty of the response. XSUSA is a code based on the statistical approach. The cross sections are only modified with the sampling based method; thus, general transport codes can be directly utilized for the S/U analysis without any code modifications. However, to calculate the uncertainty distribution from the result, code simulation should be enough repeated with randomly sampled cross sections. Therefore, this inefficiency is known as a disadvantage of the stochastic method. In this study, an advanced sampling method of the cross sections is proposed and verified to increase the estimation efficiency of the sampling based method. In this study, to increase the estimation efficiency of the sampling based S/U method, an advanced sampling and estimation method was proposed. The main feature of the proposed method is that the cross section averaged from each single sampled cross section is used. For the use of the proposed method, the validation was performed using the perturbation theory

  2. High order depletion sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.

    2002-01-01

    A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations

  3. Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mixed Green-Ampt/Curve-Number method for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, N.; Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With the aim of combining the practical advantages of the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model, we have developed a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt). The basic concept is that, for a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model so as to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. In a previous contribution, the proposed mixed procedure was evaluated on 100 observed events showing encouraging results. In this study, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to further explore the feasibility of applying the CN4GA tool in small ungauged catchments. The proposed mixed procedure constrains the GA model with boundary and initial conditions so that the GA soil hydraulic parameters are expected to be insensitive toward the net hyetograph peak. To verify and evaluate this behaviour, synthetic design hyetograph and synthetic rainfall time series are selected and used in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results are encouraging and confirm that the parameter variability makes the proposed method an appropriate tool for hydrologic predictions in ungauged catchments. Keywords: SCS-CN method, Green-Ampt method, rainfall excess, ungauged basins, design hydrograph, rainfall-runoff modelling.

  4. A Simple and Sensitive HPLC Method for Simultaneous Analysis of Nabumetone and Paracetamol in Pharmaceutical Formulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prafulla Kumar Sahu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a high-performance liquid chromatographic method for simultaneous estimation of nabumetone and paracetamol in binary mixture. The method was based on RP-HPLC separation and quantitation of the two drugs on hypersil C-18 column (250 mm × 4.6 mm using a mobile phase consisting of acetonitrile and 0.05% aqueous acetic acid (70:30v/v at flow rate of 1 mL min-1. Quantitation was achieved with PDA detector at 238 nm based on peak area with linear calibration curves at concentration ranges 5-25 µg mL-1 for both the drugs. Naproxen sodium was used as internal standard. The method has been successively applied to pharmaceutical formulation. No chromatographic interference from the tablet excipients was found. The method was validated in terms of precision, robustness, recovery and limits of detection and quantitation. The intra and inter-day precision and accuracy values were in the acceptance range as per ICH guidelines.

  5. Generation of input parameters for OSPM calculations. Sensitivity analysis of a method based on a questionnaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vignati, E.; Hertel, O.; Berkowicz, R. [National Environmental Research Inst., Dept. of Atmospheric Enviroment (Denmark); Raaschou-Nielsen, O. [Danish Cancer Society, Division of Cancer Epidemiology (Denmark)

    1997-05-01

    The method for generation of the input data for the calculations with OSPM is presented in this report. The described method which is based on information provided from a questionnaire, will be used for model calculations of long term exposure for a large number of children in connection with an epidemiological study. A test of the calculation method has been performed on a few locations in which detailed measurements of air pollution, meteorological data and traffic were available. Comparisons between measured and calculated concentrations were made for hourly, monthly and yearly values. Beside the measured concentrations, the test results were compared to results obtained with the optimal street configuration data and measured traffic. The main conclusions drawn from this investigation are: (1) The calculation method works satisfactory well for long term averages, whereas the uncertainties are high when short term averages are considered. (2) The street width is one of the most crucial input parameters for the calculation of street pollution levels for both short and long term averages. Using H.C. Andersens Boulevard as an example, it was shown that estimation of street width based on traffic amount can lead to large overestimation of the concentration levels (in this case 50% for NO{sub x} and 30% for NO{sub 2}). (3) The street orientation and geometry is important for prediction of short term concentrations but this importance diminished for longer term averages. (4) The uncertainties in diurnal traffic profiles can influence the accuracy of short term averages, but are less important for long term averages. The correlation is good between modelled and measured concentrations when the actual background concentrations are replaced with the generated values. Even though extreme situations are difficult to reproduce with this method, the comparison between the yearly averaged modelled and measured concentrations is very good. (LN) 20 refs.

  6. A Monte Carlo methods for identification and sensitivity analysis of coagulation processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vikhansky, Alexander; Kraft, Markus

    2004-01-01

    A stochastic simulation algorithm is presented to calculate parametric derivatives of solutions of a population balance equation. The dispersed system is approximated by an N-particle stochastic weighted ensemble. The derivatives are accounted for through infinitesimal deviation of the statistical weights that are recalculated at each coagulation. Thus, all the parametric derivatives can be calculated along one trajectory of the process, given N sufficiently large. We use an operator-splitting technique to account for surface growth of the particles. The obtained solution is in good agreement with the available analytical solutions. As soon as the parametric derivatives are known the gradient-based methods can be applied to the control and identification of the coagulation process. The extension of the proposed technique to a multi-dimensional case is straightforward

  7. Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification in SCALE6.2.1 using continuous-energy Monte Carlo Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labarile, A.; Barrachina, T.; Miró, R.; Verdú, G., E-mail: alabarile@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: tbarrachina@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: rmiro@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety - ISIRYM, Valencia (Spain); Pereira, C., E-mail: claubia@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-07-01

    The use of Best-Estimate computer codes is one of the greatest concerns in the nuclear industry especially for licensing analysis. Of paramount importance is the estimation of the uncertainties of the whole system to establish the safety margins based on highly reliable results. The estimation of these uncertainties should be performed by applying a methodology to propagate the uncertainties from the input parameters and the models implemented in the code to the output parameters. This study employs two different approaches for the Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the adjoint-based perturbation theory of TSUNAMI-3D, and the stochastic sampling technique of SAMPLER/KENO. The cases studied are two models of Light Water Reactors in the framework of the OECD/NEA UAM-LWR benchmark, a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) and a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Both of them at Hot Full Power (HFP) and Hot Zero Power (HZP) conditions, with and without control rod. This work presents the results of k{sub eff} from different simulation, and discuss the comparison of the two methods employed. In particular, a list of the major contributors to the uncertainty of k{sub eff} in terms of microscopic cross sections; their sensitivity coefficients; a comparison between the results of the two modules and with reference values; statistical information from the stochastic approach, and the probability and statistical confidence reached in the simulations. The reader will find all these information discussed in this paper. (author)

  8. OPTIMIZATION OF THE TEMPERATURE CONTROL SCHEME FOR ROLLER COMPACTED CONCRETE DAMS BASED ON FINITE ELEMENT AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huawei Zhou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Achieving an effective combination of various temperature control measures is critical for temperature control and crack prevention of concrete dams. This paper presents a procedure for optimizing the temperature control scheme of roller compacted concrete (RCC dams that couples the finite element method (FEM with a sensitivity analysis method. In this study, seven temperature control schemes are defined according to variations in three temperature control measures: concrete placement temperature, water-pipe cooling time, and thermal insulation layer thickness. FEM is employed to simulate the equivalent temperature field and temperature stress field obtained under each of the seven designed temperature control schemes for a typical overflow dam monolith based on the actual characteristics of a RCC dam located in southwestern China. A sensitivity analysis is subsequently conducted to investigate the degree of influence each of the three temperature control measures has on the temperature field and temperature tensile stress field of the dam. Results show that the placement temperature has a substantial influence on the maximum temperature and tensile stress of the dam, and that the placement temperature cannot exceed 15 °C. The water-pipe cooling time and thermal insulation layer thickness have little influence on the maximum temperature, but both demonstrate a substantial influence on the maximum tensile stress of the dam. The thermal insulation thickness is significant for reducing the probability of cracking as a result of high thermal stress, and the maximum tensile stress can be controlled under the specification limit with a thermal insulation layer thickness of 10 cm. Finally, an optimized temperature control scheme for crack prevention is obtained based on the analysis results.

  9. Application of sensitivity analysis for assessment of de-desertification alternatives in the central Iran by using Triantaphyllou method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi Ravesh, Mohammad Hassan; Ahmadi, Hassan; Zehtabian, Gholamreza

    2011-08-01

    Desertification, land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions, is a global environmental problem. With respect to increasing importance of desertification and its complexity, the necessity of attention to the optimal de-desertification alternatives is essential. Therefore, this work presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to objectively select the optimal de-desertification alternatives based on the results of interviews with experts in Khezr Abad region, central Iran as the case study. This model was used in Yazd Khezr Abad region to evaluate the efficiency in presentation of better alternatives related to personal and environmental situations. Obtained results indicate that the criterion "proportion and adaptation to the environment" with the weighted average of 33.6% is the most important criterion from experts viewpoints. While prevention alternatives of land usage unsuitable of reveres and conversion with 22.88% mean weight and vegetation cover development and reclamation with 21.9% mean weight are recognized ordinarily as the most important de-desertification alternatives in region. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed in detail by varying the objective factor decision weight, the priority weight of subjective factors, and the gain factors. After the fulfillment of sensitivity analysis and determination of the most sensitive criteria and alternatives, the former classification and ranking of alternatives does not change so much, and it was observed that unsuitable land use alternative with the preference degree of 22.7% was still in the first order of priority. The final priority of livestock grazing control alternative was replaced with the alternative of modification of ground water harvesting.

  10. Highly Sensitive and High-Throughput Method for the Analysis of Bisphenol Analogues and Their Halogenated Derivatives in Breast Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Yumin; Wang, Bin; Zhao, Yunfeng; Zhang, Jing; Shao, Bing

    2017-12-06

    The structural analogs of bisphenol A (BPA) and their halogenated derivatives (together termed BPs) have been found in the environment, food, and even the human body. Limited research showed that some of them exhibited toxicities that were similar to or even greater than that of BPA. Therefore, adverse health effects for BPs were expected for humans with low-dose exposure in early life. Breast milk is an excellent matrix and could reflect fetuses' and babies' exposure to contaminants. Some of the emerging BPs may present with trace or ultratrace levels in humans. However, existing analytical methods for breast milk cannot quantify these BPs simultaneously with high sensitivity using a small sampling weight, which is important for human biomonitoring studies. In this paper, a method based on Bond Elut Enhanced Matrix Removal-Lipid purification, pyridine-3-sulfonyl chloride derivatization, and liquid chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry was developed. The method requires only a small quantity of sample (200 μL) and allowed for the simultaneous determination of 24 BPs in breast milk with ultrahigh sensitivity. The limits of quantitation of the proposed method were 0.001-0.200 μg L -1 , which were 1-6.7 times lower than the only study for the simultaneous analysis of bisphenol analogs in breast milk based on a 3 g sample weight. The mean recoveries ranged from 86.11% to 119.05% with relative standard deviation (RSD) ≤ 19.5% (n = 6). Matrix effects were within 20% with RSD bisphenol F (BPF), bisphenol S (BPS), and bisphenol AF (BPAF) were detected. BPA was still the dominant BP, followed by BPF. This is the first report describing the occurrence of BPF and BPAF in breast milk.

  11. Cross section and method uncertainties: the application of sensitivity analysis to study their relationship in radiation transport benchmark problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisbi, C.R.; Oblow, E.M.; Ching, J.; White, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Drischler, J.

    1975-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis is applied to the study of an air transport benchmark calculation to quantify and distinguish between cross-section and method uncertainties. The boundary detector response was converged with respect to spatial and angular mesh size, P/sub l/ expansion of the scattering kernel, and the number and location of energy grid boundaries. The uncertainty in the detector response due to uncertainties in nuclear data is 17.0 percent (one standard deviation, not including uncertainties in energy and angular distribution) based upon the ENDF/B-IV ''error files'' including correlations in energy and reaction type. Differences of approximately 6 percent can be attributed exclusively to differences in processing multigroup transfer matrices. Formal documentation of the PUFF computer program for the generation of multigroup covariance matrices is presented. (47 figures, 14 tables) (U.S.)

  12. Application of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methods to a Validation Study for Weapons-Grade Mixed-Oxide Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, M.E.

    2001-01-01

    At the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis methods and a Generalized Linear Least-Squares Methodology (GLLSM) have been developed to quantitatively determine the similarity or lack thereof between critical benchmark experiments and an application of interest. The S/U and GLLSM methods provide a mathematical approach, which is less judgment based relative to traditional validation procedures, to assess system similarity and estimate the calculational bias and uncertainty for an application of interest. The objective of this paper is to gain experience with the S/U and GLLSM methods by revisiting a criticality safety evaluation and associated traditional validation for the shipment of weapons-grade (WG) MOX fuel in the MO-1 transportation package. In the original validation, critical experiments were selected based on a qualitative assessment of the MO-1 and MOX contents relative to the available experiments. Subsequently, traditional trending analyses were used to estimate the Δk bias and associated uncertainty. In this paper, the S/U and GLLSM procedures are used to re-evaluate the suite of critical experiments associated with the original MO-1 evaluation. Using the S/U procedures developed at ORNL, critical experiments that are similar to the undamaged and damaged MO-1 package are identified based on sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the criticals and the MO-1 package configurations. Based on the trending analyses developed for the S/U and GLLSM procedures, the Δk bias and uncertainty for the most reactive MO-1 package configurations are estimated and used to calculate an upper subcritical limit (USL) for the MO-1 evaluation. The calculated bias and uncertainty from the S/U and GLLSM analyses lead to a calculational USL that supports the original validation study for the MO-1

  13. MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

  14. EV range sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostafew, C. [Azure Dynamics Corp., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This presentation included a sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle components on overall efficiency. The presentation provided an overview of drive cycles and discussed the major contributors to range in terms of rolling resistance; aerodynamic drag; motor efficiency; and vehicle mass. Drive cycles that were presented included: New York City Cycle (NYCC); urban dynamometer drive cycle; and US06. A summary of the findings were presented for each of the major contributors. Rolling resistance was found to have a balanced effect on each drive cycle and proportional to range. In terms of aerodynamic drive, there was a large effect on US06 range. A large effect was also found on NYCC range in terms of motor efficiency and vehicle mass. figs.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of the electrostatic force distance curve using Sobol’s method and design of experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alhossen, I; Bugarin, F; Segonds, S; Villeneuve-Faure, C; Baudoin, F

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that the electrostatic force distance curve (EFDC) is a relevant way of probing injected charge in 3D. However, the EFDC needs a thorough investigation to be accurately analyzed and to provide information about charge localization. Interpreting the EFDC in terms of charge distribution is not straightforward from an experimental point of view. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the EFDC is studied using buried electrodes as a first approximation. In particular, the influence of input factors such as the electrode width, depth and applied potential are investigated. To reach this goal, the EFDC is fitted to a law described by four parameters, called logistic law, and the influence of the electrode parameters on the law parameters has been investigated. Then, two methods are applied—Sobol’s method and the factorial design of experiment—to quantify the effect of each factor on each parameter of the logistic law. Complementary results are obtained from both methods, demonstrating that the EFDC is not the result of the superposition of the contribution of each electrode parameter, but that it exhibits a strong contribution from electrode parameter interaction. Furthermore, thanks to these results, a matricial model has been developed to predict EFDCs for any combination of electrode characteristics. A good correlation is observed with the experiments, and this is promising for charge investigation using an EFDC. (paper)

  16. Sensitivity analysis of the electrostatic force distance curve using Sobol’s method and design of experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhossen, I.; Villeneuve-Faure, C.; Baudoin, F.; Bugarin, F.; Segonds, S.

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that the electrostatic force distance curve (EFDC) is a relevant way of probing injected charge in 3D. However, the EFDC needs a thorough investigation to be accurately analyzed and to provide information about charge localization. Interpreting the EFDC in terms of charge distribution is not straightforward from an experimental point of view. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the EFDC is studied using buried electrodes as a first approximation. In particular, the influence of input factors such as the electrode width, depth and applied potential are investigated. To reach this goal, the EFDC is fitted to a law described by four parameters, called logistic law, and the influence of the electrode parameters on the law parameters has been investigated. Then, two methods are applied—Sobol’s method and the factorial design of experiment—to quantify the effect of each factor on each parameter of the logistic law. Complementary results are obtained from both methods, demonstrating that the EFDC is not the result of the superposition of the contribution of each electrode parameter, but that it exhibits a strong contribution from electrode parameter interaction. Furthermore, thanks to these results, a matricial model has been developed to predict EFDCs for any combination of electrode characteristics. A good correlation is observed with the experiments, and this is promising for charge investigation using an EFDC.

  17. Sensitivity analysis of the Galerkin finite element method neutron diffusion solver to the shape of the elements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosseini, Seyed Abolfaz [Dept. of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    The purpose of the present study is the presentation of the appropriate element and shape function in the solution of the neutron diffusion equation in two-dimensional (2D) geometries. To this end, the multigroup neutron diffusion equation is solved using the Galerkin finite element method in both rectangular and hexagonal reactor cores. The spatial discretization of the equation is performed using unstructured triangular and quadrilateral finite elements. Calculations are performed using both linear and quadratic approximations of shape function in the Galerkin finite element method, based on which results are compared. Using the power iteration method, the neutron flux distributions with the corresponding eigenvalue are obtained. The results are then validated against the valid results for IAEA-2D and BIBLIS-2D benchmark problems. To investigate the dependency of the results to the type and number of the elements, and shape function order, a sensitivity analysis of the calculations to the mentioned parameters is performed. It is shown that the triangular elements and second order of the shape function in each element give the best results in comparison to the other states.

  18. Linearization of the Principal Component Analysis method for radiative transfer acceleration: Application to retrieval algorithms and sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spurr, R.; Natraj, V.; Lerot, C.; Van Roozendael, M.; Loyola, D.

    2013-01-01

    Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a promising tool for enhancing radiative transfer (RT) performance. When applied to binned optical property data sets, PCA exploits redundancy in the optical data, and restricts the number of full multiple-scatter calculations to those optical states corresponding to the most important principal components, yet still maintaining high accuracy in the radiance approximations. We show that the entire PCA RT enhancement process is analytically differentiable with respect to any atmospheric or surface parameter, thus allowing for accurate and fast approximations of Jacobian matrices, in addition to radiances. This linearization greatly extends the power and scope of the PCA method to many remote sensing retrieval applications and sensitivity studies. In the first example, we examine accuracy for PCA-derived UV-backscatter radiance and Jacobian fields over a 290–340 nm window. In a second application, we show that performance for UV-based total ozone column retrieval is considerably improved without compromising the accuracy. -- Highlights: •Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of spectrally-binned atmospheric optical properties. •PCA-based accelerated radiative transfer with 2-stream model for fast multiple-scatter. •Atmospheric and surface property linearization of this PCA performance enhancement. •Accuracy of PCA enhancement for radiances and bulk-property Jacobians, 290–340 nm. •Application of PCA speed enhancement to UV backscatter total ozone retrievals

  19. Characterizing Wheel-Soil Interaction Loads Using Meshfree Finite Element Methods: A Sensitivity Analysis for Design Trade Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, Michael T.; Trease, Brian P.; Bojanowski, Cezary; Kulakx, Ronald F.

    2013-01-01

    A wheel experiencing sinkage and slippage events poses a high risk to planetary rover missions as evidenced by the mobility challenges endured by the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project. Current wheel design practice utilizes loads derived from a series of events in the life cycle of the rover which do not include (1) failure metrics related to wheel sinkage and slippage and (2) performance trade-offs based on grouser placement/orientation. Wheel designs are rigorously tested experimentally through a variety of drive scenarios and simulated soil environments; however, a robust simulation capability is still in development due to myriad of complex interaction phenomena that contribute to wheel sinkage and slippage conditions such as soil composition, large deformation soil behavior, wheel geometry, nonlinear contact forces, terrain irregularity, etc. For the purposes of modeling wheel sinkage and slippage at an engineering scale, meshfree nite element approaches enable simulations that capture su cient detail of wheel-soil interaction while remaining computationally feasible. This study implements the JPL wheel-soil benchmark problem in the commercial code environment utilizing the large deformation modeling capability of Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) meshfree methods. The nominal, benchmark wheel-soil interaction model that produces numerically stable and physically realistic results is presented and simulations are shown for both wheel traverse and wheel sinkage cases. A sensitivity analysis developing the capability and framework for future ight applications is conducted to illustrate the importance of perturbations to critical material properties and parameters. Implementation of the proposed soil-wheel interaction simulation capability and associated sensitivity framework has the potential to reduce experimentation cost and improve the early stage wheel design proce

  20. Analytical methods for large-scale sensitivity analysis using GRESS [GRadient Enhanced Software System] and ADGEN [Automated Adjoint Generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.

    1988-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and ADGEN now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed. 7 refs., 2 figs

  1. An UPLC-MS/MS method for highly sensitive high-throughput analysis of phytohormones in plant tissues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balcke Gerd Ulrich

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Phytohormones are the key metabolites participating in the regulation of multiple functions of plant organism. Among them, jasmonates, as well as abscisic and salicylic acids are responsible for triggering and modulating plant reactions targeted against pathogens and herbivores, as well as resistance to abiotic stress (drought, UV-irradiation and mechanical wounding. These factors induce dramatic changes in phytohormone biosynthesis and transport leading to rapid local and systemic stress responses. Understanding of underlying mechanisms is of principle interest for scientists working in various areas of plant biology. However, highly sensitive, precise and high-throughput methods for quantification of these phytohormones in small samples of plant tissues are still missing. Results Here we present an LC-MS/MS method for fast and highly sensitive determination of jasmonates, abscisic and salicylic acids. A single-step sample preparation procedure based on mixed-mode solid phase extraction was efficiently combined with essential improvements in mobile phase composition yielding higher efficiency of chromatographic separation and MS-sensitivity. This strategy resulted in dramatic increase in overall sensitivity, allowing successful determination of phytohormones in small (less than 50 mg of fresh weight tissue samples. The method was completely validated in terms of analyte recovery, sensitivity, linearity and precision. Additionally, it was cross-validated with a well-established GC-MS-based procedure and its applicability to a variety of plant species and organs was verified. Conclusion The method can be applied for the analyses of target phytohormones in small tissue samples obtained from any plant species and/or plant part relying on any commercially available (even less sensitive tandem mass spectrometry instrumentation.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of exergy destruction in a real combined cycle power plant based on advanced exergy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyaghchi, Fateme Ahmadi; Molaie, Hanieh

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The advanced exergy destruction components of a real CCPP are calculated. • The TIT and r c variation are investigated on exergy destruction parts of the cycle. • The TIT and r c growth increase the improvement potential in the most of components. • The TIT and r c growth decrease the unavoidable part in some components. - Abstract: The advanced exergy analysis extends engineering knowledge beyond the respective conventional methods by improving the design and operation of energy conversion systems. In advanced exergy analysis, the exergy destruction is splitting into endogenous/exogenous and avoidable/unavoidable parts. In this study, an advanced exergy analysis of a real combined cycle power plant (CCPP) with supplementary firing is done. The endogenous/exogenous irreversibilities of each component as well as their combination with avoidable/unavoidable irreversibilities are determined. A parametric study is presented discussing the sensitivity of various performance indicators to the turbine inlet temperature (TIT), and compressor pressure ratio (r c ). It is observed that the thermal and exergy efficiencies increase when TIT and r c rise. Results show that combustion chamber (CC) concentrates most of the exergy destruction (more than 62%), dominantly in unavoidable endogenous form which is decreased by 11.89% and 13.12% while the avoidable endogenous exergy destruction increase and is multiplied by the factors of 1.3 and 8.6 with increasing TIT and r c , respectively. In addition, TIT growth strongly increases the endogenous avoidable exergy destruction in high pressure superheater (HP.SUP), CC and low pressure evaporator (LP.EVAP). It, also, increases the exogenous avoidable exergy destruction of HP.SUP and low pressure steam turbine (LP.ST) and leads to the high decrement in the endogenous exergy destruction of the preheater (PRE) by about 98.8%. Furthermore, r c growth extremely rises the endogenous avoidable exergy destruction of gas

  3. Development of the high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter: enabling advanced sensitivity analysis in air quality models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter (HDDM-3D/PM has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model to enable advanced sensitivity analysis. The major effort of this work is to develop high-order DDM sensitivity analysis of ISORROPIA, the inorganic aerosol module of CMAQ. A case-specific approach has been applied, and the sensitivities of activity coefficients and water content are explicitly computed. Stand-alone tests are performed for ISORROPIA by comparing the sensitivities (first- and second-order computed by HDDM and the brute force (BF approximations. Similar comparison has also been carried out for CMAQ sensitivities simulated using a week-long winter episode for a continental US domain. Second-order sensitivities of aerosol species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium with respect to domain-wide SO2, NOx, and NH3 emissions show agreement with BF results, yet exhibit less noise in locations where BF results are demonstrably inaccurate. Second-order sensitivity analysis elucidates poorly understood nonlinear responses of secondary inorganic aerosols to their precursors and competing species. Adding second-order sensitivity terms to the Taylor series projection of the nitrate concentrations with a 50% reduction in domain-wide NOx or SO2 emissions rates improves the prediction with statistical significance.

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of Dune Height Measurements Along Cross-shore Profiles Using a Novel Method for Dune Ridge Extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, E.; Mitasova, H.; Overton, M.

    2010-12-01

    meets landward-facing slope. In this study, a novel approach for dune ridge extraction is proposed. First, two alongshore end-points of the studied dune ridge are identified using a standard, profile-based method. Then, the dune ridge is traced as the least cost path connecting the two end-points on a cost surface that represents the cumulative penalty for tracing a low elevation path. The cost surface is derived from elevation (i.e., elevation is equal to the cologarithm of the cost). The extracted dune ridge is then sampled at the DEM resolution of 0.5m and analysis of dune ridge height is performed. Statistics on variation in dune height are computed to help understand the sensitivity of dune height measurements to profile spacing and placement. Preliminary results suggest that dune height becomes nearly uncorrelated within 50m and ranges on average nearly a half meter within a five meter window suggesting that dune height measurements are sensitive to profile placement.

  5. Application of the Tikhonov regularization method to wind retrieval from scatterometer data I. Sensitivity analysis and simulation experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Jian; Huang Si-Xun; Du Hua-Dong; Zhang Liang

    2011-01-01

    Scatterometer is an instrument which provides all-day and large-scale wind field information, and its application especially to wind retrieval always attracts meteorologists. Certain reasons cause large direction error, so it is important to find where the error mainly comes. Does it mainly result from the background field, the normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) or the method of wind retrieval? It is valuable to research. First, depending on SDP2.0, the simulated ‘true’ NRCS is calculated from the simulated ‘true’ wind through the geophysical model function NSCAT2. The simulated background field is configured by adding a noise to the simulated ‘true’ wind with the non-divergence constraint. Also, the simulated ‘measured’ NRCS is formed by adding a noise to the simulated ‘true’ NRCS. Then, the sensitivity experiments are taken, and the new method of regularization is used to improve the ambiguity removal with simulation experiments. The results show that the accuracy of wind retrieval is more sensitive to the noise in the background than in the measured NRCS; compared with the two-dimensional variational (2DVAR) ambiguity removal method, the accuracy of wind retrieval can be improved with the new method of Tikhonov regularization through choosing an appropriate regularization parameter, especially for the case of large error in the background. The work will provide important information and a new method for the wind retrieval with real data. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  6. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of two methods of using heart rate to represent energy expenditure during walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Mohammad Taghi

    2015-01-01

    Heart rate is an accurate and easy to use method to represent the energy expenditure during walking, based on physiological cost index (PCI). However, in some conditions the heart rate during walking does not reach to a steady state. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the energy expenditure by use of the PCI index. The total heart beat index (THBI) is a new method to solve the aforementioned problem. The aim of this research project was to find the sensitivity of both the physiological cost index (PCI) and total heart beat index (THBI). Fifteen normal subjects and ten patients with flatfoot disorder and two subjects with spinal cord injury were recruited in this research project. The PCI and THBI indexes were determined by use of heart beats with respect to walking speed and total distance walked, respectively. The sensitivity of PCI was more than that of THBI index in the three groups of subjects. Although the PCI and THBI indexes are easy to use and reliable parameters to represent the energy expenditure during walking, their sensitivity is not high to detect the influence of some orthotic interventions, such as use of insoles or using shoes on energy expenditure during walking.

  7. TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.

    1988-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement

  8. Evaluation of methods for measuring relative permeability of anhydride from the Salado Formation: Sensitivity analysis and data reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christiansen, R.L.; Kalbus, J.S.

    1997-05-01

    This report documents, demonstrates, evaluates, and provides theoretical justification for methods used to convert experimental data into relative permeability relationships. The report facilities accurate determination of relative permeabilities of anhydride rock samples from the Salado Formation at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Relative permeability characteristic curves are necessary for WIPP Performance Assessment (PA) predictions of the potential for flow of waste-generated gas from the repository and brine flow into repository. This report follows Christiansen and Howarth (1995), a comprehensive literature review of methods for measuring relative permeability. It focuses on unsteady-state experiments and describes five methods for obtaining relative permeability relationships from unsteady-state experiments. Unsteady-state experimental methods were recommended for relative permeability measurements of low-permeability anhydrite rock samples form the Salado Formation because these tests produce accurate relative permeability information and take significantly less time to complete than steady-state tests. Five methods for obtaining relative permeability relationships from unsteady-state experiments are described: the Welge method, the Johnson-Bossler-Naumann method, the Jones-Roszelle method, the Ramakrishnan-Cappiello method, and the Hagoort method. A summary, an example of the calculations, and a theoretical justification are provided for each of the five methods. Displacements in porous media are numerically simulated for the calculation examples. The simulated product data were processed using the methods, and the relative permeabilities obtained were compared with those input to the numerical model. A variety of operating conditions were simulated to show sensitivity of production behavior to rock-fluid properties

  9. A theoretical-experimental methodology for assessing the sensitivity of biomedical spectral imaging platforms, assays, and analysis methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leavesley, Silas J; Sweat, Brenner; Abbott, Caitlyn; Favreau, Peter; Rich, Thomas C

    2018-01-01

    Spectral imaging technologies have been used for many years by the remote sensing community. More recently, these approaches have been applied to biomedical problems, where they have shown great promise. However, biomedical spectral imaging has been complicated by the high variance of biological data and the reduced ability to construct test scenarios with fixed ground truths. Hence, it has been difficult to objectively assess and compare biomedical spectral imaging assays and technologies. Here, we present a standardized methodology that allows assessment of the performance of biomedical spectral imaging equipment, assays, and analysis algorithms. This methodology incorporates real experimental data and a theoretical sensitivity analysis, preserving the variability present in biomedical image data. We demonstrate that this approach can be applied in several ways: to compare the effectiveness of spectral analysis algorithms, to compare the response of different imaging platforms, and to assess the level of target signature required to achieve a desired performance. Results indicate that it is possible to compare even very different hardware platforms using this methodology. Future applications could include a range of optimization tasks, such as maximizing detection sensitivity or acquisition speed, providing high utility for investigators ranging from design engineers to biomedical scientists. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. Performance and sensitivity analysis of the generalized likelihood ratio method for failure detection. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueno, R. A.

    1977-01-01

    Results of the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) technique for the detection of failures in aircraft application are presented, and its relationship to the properties of the Kalman-Bucy filter is examined. Under the assumption that the system is perfectly modeled, the detectability and distinguishability of four failure types are investigated by means of analysis and simulations. Detection of failures is found satisfactory, but problems in identifying correctly the mode of a failure may arise. These issues are closely examined as well as the sensitivity of GLR to modeling errors. The advantages and disadvantages of this technique are discussed, and various modifications are suggested to reduce its limitations in performance and computational complexity.

  11. Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two

  12. A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

    2017-01-01

    Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

  13. Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

  14. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE USING MECHANISTIC EMPIRICAL METHOD (CASE STUDY: CIREBON–LOSARI ROAD SEGMENT, WEST JAVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Samad

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cirebon – Losari flexible pavement which is located on the North Coast of Java, Indonesia, is in the severe damage condition caused by overloading vehicles passing the road. The need for developing improved pavement design and analysis methods is very necessary. The increment of loads and quality of material properties can be evaluated through Mechanistic-Empirical (M-E method. M-E software like KENLAYER has been developed to facilitate the transition from empirical to mechanistic design methods. From the KENLAYER analysis, it can be concluded that the effect of overloading to the pavement structure performance is difficult to minimize even though the first two layers have relatively high modulus of elasticity. The occurrence of 150%, 200%, and 250% overloading have a very significant effect in reducing 84%, 95%, and 98% of the pavement design life, respectively. For the purpose of increasing the pavement service life, it is more effective to manage the allowable load.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of efficiency thermal energy storage on selected rock mass and grout parameters using design of experiment method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wołoszyn, Jerzy; Gołaś, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Paper propose a new methodology to sensitivity study of underground thermal storage. • Using MDF model and DOE technique significantly shorter of calculations time. • Calculation of one time step was equal to approximately 57 s. • Sensitivity study cover five thermo-physical parameters. • Conductivity of rock mass and grout material have a significant impact on efficiency. - Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of selected parameters on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage. In this paper, besides thermal conductivity, the effect of such parameters as specific heat, density of the rock mass, thermal conductivity and specific heat of grout material was investigated. Implementation of this objective requires the use of an efficient computational method. The aim of the research was achieved by using a new numerical model, Multi Degree of Freedom (MDF), as developed by the authors and Design of Experiment (DoE) techniques with a response surface. The presented methodology can significantly reduce the time that is needed for research and to determine the effect of various parameters on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage. Preliminary results of the research confirmed that thermal conductivity of the rock mass has the greatest impact on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage, and that other parameters also play quite significant role

  16. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen

    2008-01-01

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

  17. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

    2008-12-15

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

  18. A sensitive and selective liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry method for quantitative analysis of efavirenz in human plasma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Srivastava

    Full Text Available A selective and a highly sensitive method for the determination of the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI, efavirenz, in human plasma has been developed and fully validated based on high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS. Sample preparation involved protein precipitation followed by one to one dilution with water. The analyte, efavirenz was separated by high performance liquid chromatography and detected with tandem mass spectrometry in negative ionization mode with multiple reaction monitoring. Efavirenz and ¹³C₆-efavirenz (Internal Standard, respectively, were detected via the following MRM transitions: m/z 314.20243.90 and m/z 320.20249.90. A gradient program was used to elute the analytes using 0.1% formic acid in water and 0.1% formic acid in acetonitrile as mobile phase solvents, at a flow-rate of 0.3 mL/min. The total run time was 5 min and the retention times for the internal standard (¹³C₆-efavirenz and efavirenz was approximately 2.6 min. The calibration curves showed linearity (coefficient of regression, r>0.99 over the concentration range of 1.0-2,500 ng/mL. The intraday precision based on the standard deviation of replicates of lower limit of quantification (LLOQ was 9.24% and for quality control (QC samples ranged from 2.41% to 6.42% and with accuracy from 112% and 100-111% for LLOQ and QC samples. The inter day precision was 12.3% and 3.03-9.18% for LLOQ and quality controls samples, and the accuracy was 108% and 95.2-108% for LLOQ and QC samples. Stability studies showed that efavirenz was stable during the expected conditions for sample preparation and storage. The lower limit of quantification for efavirenz was 1 ng/mL. The analytical method showed excellent sensitivity, precision, and accuracy. This method is robust and is being successfully applied for therapeutic drug monitoring and pharmacokinetic studies in HIV-infected patients.

  19. Remote Sensing of Seagrass Leaf Area Index and Species: The Capability of a Model Inversion Method Assessed by Sensitivity Analysis and Hyperspectral Data of Florida Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John D. Hedley

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The capability for mapping two species of seagrass, Thalassia testudinium and Syringodium filiforme, by remote sensing using a physics based model inversion method was investigated. The model was based on a three-dimensional canopy model combined with a model for the overlying water column. The model included uncertainty propagation based on variation in leaf reflectances, canopy structure, water column properties, and the air-water interface. The uncertainty propagation enabled both a-priori predictive sensitivity analysis of potential capability and the generation of per-pixel error bars when applied to imagery. A primary aim of the work was to compare the sensitivity analysis to results achieved in a practical application using airborne hyperspectral data, to gain insight on the validity of sensitivity analyses in general. Results showed that while the sensitivity analysis predicted a weak but positive discrimination capability for species, in a practical application the relevant spectral differences were extremely small compared to discrepancies in the radiometric alignment of the model with the imagery—even though this alignment was very good. Complex interactions between spectral matching and uncertainty propagation also introduced biases. Ability to discriminate LAI was good, and comparable to previously published methods using different approaches. The main limitation in this respect was spatial alignment with the imagery with in situ data, which was heterogeneous on scales of a few meters. The results provide insight on the limitations of physics based inversion methods and seagrass mapping in general. Complex models can degrade unpredictably when radiometric alignment of the model and imagery is not perfect and incorporating uncertainties can have non-intuitive impacts on method performance. Sensitivity analyses are upper bounds to practical capability, incorporating a term for potential systematic errors in radiometric alignment may

  20. Invariant methods for an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of a passive containment cooling system of an AP1000 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maio, Francesco; Nicola, Giancarlo; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is performed to gain fundamental insights on a system behavior that is usually reproduced by a model and to identify the most relevant input variables whose variations affect the system model functional response. For the reliability analysis of passive safety systems of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), models are Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes, that predict the system functional response in normal and accidental conditions and, in this paper, an ensemble of three alternative invariant SA methods is innovatively set up for a SA on the TH code input variables. The ensemble aggregates the input variables raking orders provided by Pearson correlation ratio, Delta method and Beta method. The capability of the ensemble is shown on a BE–TH code of the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized water reactor AP1000, during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), whose output probability density function (pdf) is approximated by a Finite Mixture Model (FMM), on the basis of a limited number of simulations. - Highlights: • We perform the reliability analysis of a passive safety system of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). • We use a Thermal Hydraulic (TH) code for predicting the NPP response to accidents. • We propose an ensemble of Invariant Methods for the sensitivity analysis of the TH code • The ensemble aggregates the rankings of Pearson correlation, Delta and Beta methods. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 NPP.

  1. Image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT: A sensitivity analysis of respiratory signal, binning method, reconstruction algorithm, and projection angular spacing

    OpenAIRE

    Shieh, Chun-Chien; Kipritidis, John; O’Brien, Ricky T.; Kuncic, Zdenka; Keall, Paul J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Respiratory signal, binning method, and reconstruction algorithm are three major controllable factors affecting image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT (4D-CBCT), which is widely used in image guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Previous studies have investigated each of these factors individually, but no integrated sensitivity analysis has been performed. In addition, projection angular spacing is also a key factor in reconstruction, but how it affects image quality is not obvious. An inv...

  2. Spatial analysis of air pollution and childhood asthma in Hamilton, Canada: comparing exposure methods in sensitive subgroups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arain Altaf

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variations in air pollution exposure within a community may be associated with asthma prevalence. However, studies conducted to date have produced inconsistent results, possibly due to errors in measurement of the exposures. Methods A standardized asthma survey was administered to children in grades one and eight in Hamilton, Canada, in 1994–95 (N ~1467. Exposure to air pollution was estimated in four ways: (1 distance from roadways; (2 interpolated surfaces for ozone, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter and nitrous oxides from seven to nine governmental monitoring stations; (3 a kriged nitrogen dioxide (NO2 surface based on a network of 100 passive NO2 monitors; and (4 a land use regression (LUR model derived from the same monitoring network. Logistic regressions were used to test associations between asthma and air pollution, controlling for variables including neighbourhood income, dwelling value, state of housing, a deprivation index and smoking. Results There were no significant associations between any of the exposure estimates and asthma in the whole population, but large effects were detected the subgroup of children without hayfever (predominately in girls. The most robust effects were observed for the association of asthma without hayfever and NO2LUR OR = 1.86 (95%CI, 1.59–2.16 in all girls and OR = 2.98 (95%CI, 0.98–9.06 for older girls, over an interquartile range increase and controlling for confounders. Conclusion Our findings indicate that traffic-related pollutants, such as NO2, are associated with asthma without overt evidence of other atopic disorders among female children living in a medium-sized Canadian city. The effects were sensitive to the method of exposure estimation. More refined exposure models produced the most robust associations.

  3. A rapid and sensitive method for the simultaneous analysis of aliphatic and polar molecules containing free carboxyl groups in plant extracts by LC-MS/MS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonaventure Gustavo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aliphatic molecules containing free carboxyl groups are important intermediates in many metabolic and signalling reactions, however, they accumulate to low levels in tissues and are not efficiently ionized by electrospray ionization (ESI compared to more polar substances. Quantification of aliphatic molecules becomes therefore difficult when small amounts of tissue are available for analysis. Traditional methods for analysis of these molecules require purification or enrichment steps, which are onerous when multiple samples need to be analyzed. In contrast to aliphatic molecules, more polar substances containing free carboxyl groups such as some phytohormones are efficiently ionized by ESI and suitable for analysis by LC-MS/MS. Thus, the development of a method with which aliphatic and polar molecules -which their unmodified forms differ dramatically in their efficiencies of ionization by ESI- can be simultaneously detected with similar sensitivities would substantially simplify the analysis of complex biological matrices. Results A simple, rapid, specific and sensitive method for the simultaneous detection and quantification of free aliphatic molecules (e.g., free fatty acids (FFA and small polar molecules (e.g., jasmonic acid (JA, salicylic acid (SA containing free carboxyl groups by direct derivatization of leaf extracts with Picolinyl reagent followed by LC-MS/MS analysis is presented. The presence of the N atom in the esterified pyridine moiety allowed the efficient ionization of 25 compounds tested irrespective of their chemical structure. The method was validated by comparing the results obtained after analysis of Nicotiana attenuata leaf material with previously described analytical methods. Conclusion The method presented was used to detect 16 compounds in leaf extracts of N. attenuata plants. Importantly, the method can be adapted based on the specific analytes of interest with the only consideration that the

  4. Sensitivity analysis of EQ3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Maerker, R.E.

    1990-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of EQ3, a computer code which has been proposed to be used as one link in the overall performance assessment of a national high-level waste repository, has been performed. EQ3 is a geochemical modeling code used to calculate the speciation of a water and its saturation state with respect to mineral phases. The model chosen for the sensitivity analysis is one which is used as a test problem in the documentation of the EQ3 code. Sensitivities are calculated using both the CHAIN and ADGEN options of the GRESS code compiled under G-float FORTRAN on the VAX/VMS and verified by perturbation runs. The analyses were performed with a preliminary Version 1.0 of GRESS which contains several new algorithms that significantly improve the application of ADGEN. Use of ADGEN automates the implementation of the well-known adjoint technique for the efficient calculation of sensitivities of a given response to all the input data. Application of ADGEN to EQ3 results in the calculation of sensitivities of a particular response to 31,000 input parameters in a run time of only 27 times that of the original model. Moreover, calculation of the sensitivities for each additional response increases this factor by only 2.5 percent. This compares very favorably with a running-time factor of 31,000 if direct perturbation runs were used instead. 6 refs., 8 tabs

  5. *Corresponding Author Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    The numerical method of sensitivity or the principle of parsimony ... analysis is a widely applied numerical method often being used in the .... Chemical Engineering Journal 128(2-3), 85-93. Amod S ... coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter.

  6. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq)-A Method for High-Throughput Analysis of Differentially Methylated CCGG Sites in Plants with Large Genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chwialkowska, Karolina; Korotko, Urszula; Kosinska, Joanna; Szarejko, Iwona; Kwasniewski, Miroslaw

    2017-01-01

    Epigenetic mechanisms, including histone modifications and DNA methylation, mutually regulate chromatin structure, maintain genome integrity, and affect gene expression and transposon mobility. Variations in DNA methylation within plant populations, as well as methylation in response to internal and external factors, are of increasing interest, especially in the crop research field. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP) is one of the most commonly used methods for assessing DNA methylation changes in plants. This method involves gel-based visualization of PCR fragments from selectively amplified DNA that are cleaved using methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes. In this study, we developed and validated a new method based on the conventional MSAP approach called Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq). We improved the MSAP-based approach by replacing the conventional separation of amplicons on polyacrylamide gels with direct, high-throughput sequencing using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) and automated data analysis. MSAP-Seq allows for global sequence-based identification of changes in DNA methylation. This technique was validated in Hordeum vulgare . However, MSAP-Seq can be straightforwardly implemented in different plant species, including crops with large, complex and highly repetitive genomes. The incorporation of high-throughput sequencing into MSAP-Seq enables parallel and direct analysis of DNA methylation in hundreds of thousands of sites across the genome. MSAP-Seq provides direct genomic localization of changes and enables quantitative evaluation. We have shown that the MSAP-Seq method specifically targets gene-containing regions and that a single analysis can cover three-quarters of all genes in large genomes. Moreover, MSAP-Seq's simplicity, cost effectiveness, and high-multiplexing capability make this method highly affordable. Therefore, MSAP-Seq can be used for DNA methylation analysis in crop

  7. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq—A Method for High-Throughput Analysis of Differentially Methylated CCGG Sites in Plants with Large Genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Chwialkowska

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic mechanisms, including histone modifications and DNA methylation, mutually regulate chromatin structure, maintain genome integrity, and affect gene expression and transposon mobility. Variations in DNA methylation within plant populations, as well as methylation in response to internal and external factors, are of increasing interest, especially in the crop research field. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP is one of the most commonly used methods for assessing DNA methylation changes in plants. This method involves gel-based visualization of PCR fragments from selectively amplified DNA that are cleaved using methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes. In this study, we developed and validated a new method based on the conventional MSAP approach called Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq. We improved the MSAP-based approach by replacing the conventional separation of amplicons on polyacrylamide gels with direct, high-throughput sequencing using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS and automated data analysis. MSAP-Seq allows for global sequence-based identification of changes in DNA methylation. This technique was validated in Hordeum vulgare. However, MSAP-Seq can be straightforwardly implemented in different plant species, including crops with large, complex and highly repetitive genomes. The incorporation of high-throughput sequencing into MSAP-Seq enables parallel and direct analysis of DNA methylation in hundreds of thousands of sites across the genome. MSAP-Seq provides direct genomic localization of changes and enables quantitative evaluation. We have shown that the MSAP-Seq method specifically targets gene-containing regions and that a single analysis can cover three-quarters of all genes in large genomes. Moreover, MSAP-Seq's simplicity, cost effectiveness, and high-multiplexing capability make this method highly affordable. Therefore, MSAP-Seq can be used for DNA methylation

  8. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq)—A Method for High-Throughput Analysis of Differentially Methylated CCGG Sites in Plants with Large Genomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chwialkowska, Karolina; Korotko, Urszula; Kosinska, Joanna; Szarejko, Iwona; Kwasniewski, Miroslaw

    2017-01-01

    Epigenetic mechanisms, including histone modifications and DNA methylation, mutually regulate chromatin structure, maintain genome integrity, and affect gene expression and transposon mobility. Variations in DNA methylation within plant populations, as well as methylation in response to internal and external factors, are of increasing interest, especially in the crop research field. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP) is one of the most commonly used methods for assessing DNA methylation changes in plants. This method involves gel-based visualization of PCR fragments from selectively amplified DNA that are cleaved using methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes. In this study, we developed and validated a new method based on the conventional MSAP approach called Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq). We improved the MSAP-based approach by replacing the conventional separation of amplicons on polyacrylamide gels with direct, high-throughput sequencing using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) and automated data analysis. MSAP-Seq allows for global sequence-based identification of changes in DNA methylation. This technique was validated in Hordeum vulgare. However, MSAP-Seq can be straightforwardly implemented in different plant species, including crops with large, complex and highly repetitive genomes. The incorporation of high-throughput sequencing into MSAP-Seq enables parallel and direct analysis of DNA methylation in hundreds of thousands of sites across the genome. MSAP-Seq provides direct genomic localization of changes and enables quantitative evaluation. We have shown that the MSAP-Seq method specifically targets gene-containing regions and that a single analysis can cover three-quarters of all genes in large genomes. Moreover, MSAP-Seq's simplicity, cost effectiveness, and high-multiplexing capability make this method highly affordable. Therefore, MSAP-Seq can be used for DNA methylation analysis in crop

  9. Development of a method for comprehensive and quantitative analysis of plant hormones by highly sensitive nanoflow liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-ion trap mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izumi, Yoshihiro; Okazawa, Atsushi; Bamba, Takeshi; Kobayashi, Akio; Fukusaki, Eiichiro

    2009-01-01

    In recent plant hormone research, there is an increased demand for a highly sensitive and comprehensive analytical approach to elucidate the hormonal signaling networks, functions, and dynamics. We have demonstrated the high sensitivity of a comprehensive and quantitative analytical method developed with nanoflow liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-ion trap mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS) under multiple-reaction monitoring (MRM) in plant hormone profiling. Unlabeled and deuterium-labeled isotopomers of four classes of plant hormones and their derivatives, auxins, cytokinins (CK), abscisic acid (ABA), and gibberellins (GA), were analyzed by this method. The optimized nanoflow-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS method showed ca. 5-10-fold greater sensitivity than capillary-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS, and the detection limits (S/N = 3) of several plant hormones were in the sub-fmol range. The results showed excellent linearity (R 2 values of 0.9937-1.0000) and reproducibility of elution times (relative standard deviations, RSDs, <1.1%) and peak areas (RSDs, <10.7%) for all target compounds. Further, sample purification using Oasis HLB and Oasis MCX cartridges significantly decreased the ion-suppressing effects of biological matrix as compared to the purification using only Oasis HLB cartridge. The optimized nanoflow-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS method was successfully used to analyze endogenous plant hormones in Arabidopsis and tobacco samples. The samples used in this analysis were extracted from only 17 tobacco dry seeds (1 mg DW), indicating that the efficiency of analysis of endogenous plant hormones strongly depends on the detection sensitivity of the method. Our analytical approach will be useful for in-depth studies on complex plant hormonal metabolism.

  10. Development of a method for comprehensive and quantitative analysis of plant hormones by highly sensitive nanoflow liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-ion trap mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izumi, Yoshihiro; Okazawa, Atsushi; Bamba, Takeshi; Kobayashi, Akio [Department of Biotechnology, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871 (Japan); Fukusaki, Eiichiro, E-mail: fukusaki@bio.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Biotechnology, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871 (Japan)

    2009-08-26

    In recent plant hormone research, there is an increased demand for a highly sensitive and comprehensive analytical approach to elucidate the hormonal signaling networks, functions, and dynamics. We have demonstrated the high sensitivity of a comprehensive and quantitative analytical method developed with nanoflow liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-ion trap mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS) under multiple-reaction monitoring (MRM) in plant hormone profiling. Unlabeled and deuterium-labeled isotopomers of four classes of plant hormones and their derivatives, auxins, cytokinins (CK), abscisic acid (ABA), and gibberellins (GA), were analyzed by this method. The optimized nanoflow-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS method showed ca. 5-10-fold greater sensitivity than capillary-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS, and the detection limits (S/N = 3) of several plant hormones were in the sub-fmol range. The results showed excellent linearity (R{sup 2} values of 0.9937-1.0000) and reproducibility of elution times (relative standard deviations, RSDs, <1.1%) and peak areas (RSDs, <10.7%) for all target compounds. Further, sample purification using Oasis HLB and Oasis MCX cartridges significantly decreased the ion-suppressing effects of biological matrix as compared to the purification using only Oasis HLB cartridge. The optimized nanoflow-LC-ESI-IT-MS/MS method was successfully used to analyze endogenous plant hormones in Arabidopsis and tobacco samples. The samples used in this analysis were extracted from only 17 tobacco dry seeds (1 mg DW), indicating that the efficiency of analysis of endogenous plant hormones strongly depends on the detection sensitivity of the method. Our analytical approach will be useful for in-depth studies on complex plant hormonal metabolism.

  11. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  12. Parameter Identification with the Random Perturbation Particle Swarm Optimization Method and Sensitivity Analysis of an Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor Nuclear Power Plant Model for Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability to obtain appropriate parameters for an advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR unit model is of great significance for power system analysis. The attributes of that ability include the following: nonlinear relationships, long transition time, intercoupled parameters and difficult obtainment from practical test, posed complexity and difficult parameter identification. In this paper, a model and a parameter identification method for the PWR primary loop system were investigated. A parameter identification process was proposed, using a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm that is based on random perturbation (RP-PSO. The identification process included model variable initialization based on the differential equations of each sub-module and program setting method, parameter obtainment through sub-module identification in the Matlab/Simulink Software (Math Works Inc., Natick, MA, USA as well as adaptation analysis for an integrated model. A lot of parameter identification work was carried out, the results of which verified the effectiveness of the method. It was found that the change of some parameters, like the fuel temperature and coolant temperature feedback coefficients, changed the model gain, of which the trajectory sensitivities were not zero. Thus, obtaining their appropriate values had significant effects on the simulation results. The trajectory sensitivities of some parameters in the core neutron dynamic module were interrelated, causing the parameters to be difficult to identify. The model parameter sensitivity could be different, which would be influenced by the model input conditions, reflecting the parameter identifiability difficulty degree for various input conditions.

  13. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl

    2008-06-01

    This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.

  14. Increasing sensitivity in the measurement of heart rate variability: the method of non-stationary RR time-frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melkonian, D; Korner, A; Meares, R; Bahramali, H

    2012-10-01

    A novel method of the time-frequency analysis of non-stationary heart rate variability (HRV) is developed which introduces the fragmentary spectrum as a measure that brings together the frequency content, timing and duration of HRV segments. The fragmentary spectrum is calculated by the similar basis function algorithm. This numerical tool of the time to frequency and frequency to time Fourier transformations accepts both uniform and non-uniform sampling intervals, and is applicable to signal segments of arbitrary length. Once the fragmentary spectrum is calculated, the inverse transform recovers the original signal and reveals accuracy of spectral estimates. Numerical experiments show that discontinuities at the boundaries of the succession of inter-beat intervals can cause unacceptable distortions of the spectral estimates. We have developed a measure that we call the "RR deltagram" as a form of the HRV data that minimises spectral errors. The analysis of the experimental HRV data from real-life and controlled breathing conditions suggests transient oscillatory components as functionally meaningful elements of highly complex and irregular patterns of HRV. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prust, J.O.

    1985-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)

  16. Kinematic inversion of the 2008 Mw7 Iwate-Miyagi (Japan) earthquake by two independent methods: Sensitivity and resolution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallovic, Frantisek; Cirella, Antonella; Plicka, Vladimir; Piatanesi, Alessio

    2013-04-01

    On 14 June 2008, UTC 23:43, the border of Iwate and Miyagi prefectures was hit by an Mw7 reverse-fault type crustal earthquake. The event is known to have the largest ground acceleration observed to date (~4g), which was recorded at station IWTH25. We analyze observed strong motion data with the objective to image the event rupture process and the associated uncertainties. Two different slip inversion approaches are used, the difference between the two methods being only in the parameterization of the source model. To minimize mismodeling of the propagation effects we use crustal model obtained by full waveform inversion of aftershock records in the frequency range between 0.05-0.3 Hz. In the first method, based on linear formulation, the parameters are represented by samples of slip velocity functions along the (finely discretized) fault in a time window spanning the whole rupture duration. Such a source description is very general with no prior constraint on the nucleation point, rupture velocity, shape of the velocity function. Thus the inversion could resolve very general (unexpected) features of the rupture evolution, such as multiple rupturing, rupture-propagation reversals, etc. On the other hand, due to the relatively large number of model parameters, the inversion result is highly non-unique, with possibility of obtaining a biased solution. The second method is a non-linear global inversion technique, where each point on the fault can slip only once, following a prescribed functional form of the source time function. We invert simultaneously for peak slip velocity, slip angle, rise time and rupture time by allowing a given range of variability for each kinematic model parameter. For this reason, unlike to the linear inversion approach, the rupture process needs a smaller number of parameters to be retrieved, and is more constrained with a proper control on the allowed range of parameter values. In order to test the resolution and reliability of the

  17. Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaitre, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

  18. Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing

    CERN Document Server

    Ustinov, Eugene A

    2015-01-01

    This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M.G. de Lima

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

  1. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

    2015-12-01

    Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

  2. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  3. A novel method of sensitivity analysis testing by applying the DRASTIC and fuzzy optimization methods to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: the case of the Senegal River basin in Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souleymane, Keita; Zhonghua, Tang

    2017-08-01

    Vulnerability to groundwater pollution in the Senegal River basin was studied by two different but complementary methods: the DRASTIC method (which evaluates the intrinsic vulnerability) and the fuzzy method (which assesses the specific vulnerability by taking into account the continuity of the parameters). The validation of this application has been tested by comparing the connection in groundwater and distribution of different established classes of vulnerabilities as well as the nitrate distribution in the study area. Three vulnerability classes (low, medium and high) have been identified by both the DRASTIC method and the fuzzy method (between which the normalized model was used). An integrated analysis reveals that high classes with 14.64 % (for the DRASTIC method), 21.68 % (for the normalized DRASTIC method) and 18.92 % (for the fuzzy method) are not the most dominant. In addition, a new method for sensitivity analysis was used to identify (and confirm) the main parameters which impact the vulnerability to pollution with fuzzy membership. The results showed that the vadose zone is the main parameter which impacts groundwater vulnerability to pollution while net recharge contributes least to pollution in the study area. It was also found that the fuzzy method better assesses the vulnerability to pollution with a coincidence rate of 81.13 % versus that of 77.35 % for the DRASTIC method. These results serve as a guide for policymakers to identify areas sensitive to pollution before such sites are used for socioeconomic infrastructures.

  4. UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico

    2006-01-01

    and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....

  5. A sensitive, reproducible and objective immunofluorescence analysis method of dystrophin in individual fibers in samples from patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chantal Beekman

    Full Text Available Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD is characterized by the absence or reduced levels of dystrophin expression on the inner surface of the sarcolemmal membrane of muscle fibers. Clinical development of therapeutic approaches aiming to increase dystrophin levels requires sensitive and reproducible measurement of differences in dystrophin expression in muscle biopsies of treated patients with DMD. This, however, poses a technical challenge due to intra- and inter-donor variance in the occurrence of revertant fibers and low trace dystrophin expression throughout the biopsies. We have developed an immunofluorescence and semi-automated image analysis method that measures the sarcolemmal dystrophin intensity per individual fiber for the entire fiber population in a muscle biopsy. Cross-sections of muscle co-stained for dystrophin and spectrin have been imaged by confocal microscopy, and image analysis was performed using Definiens software. Dystrophin intensity has been measured in the sarcolemmal mask of spectrin for each individual muscle fiber and multiple membrane intensity parameters (mean, maximum, quantiles per fiber were calculated. A histogram can depict the distribution of dystrophin intensities for the fiber population in the biopsy. This method was tested by measuring dystrophin in DMD, Becker muscular dystrophy, and healthy muscle samples. Analysis of duplicate or quadruplicate sections of DMD biopsies on the same or multiple days, by different operators, or using different antibodies, was shown to be objective and reproducible (inter-assay precision, CV 2-17% and intra-assay precision, CV 2-10%. Moreover, the method was sufficiently sensitive to detect consistently small differences in dystrophin between two biopsies from a patient with DMD before and after treatment with an investigational compound.

  6. Introducing AAA-MS, a rapid and sensitive method for amino acid analysis using isotope dilution and high-resolution mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louwagie, Mathilde; Kieffer-Jaquinod, Sylvie; Dupierris, Véronique; Couté, Yohann; Bruley, Christophe; Garin, Jérôme; Dupuis, Alain; Jaquinod, Michel; Brun, Virginie

    2012-07-06

    Accurate quantification of pure peptides and proteins is essential for biotechnology, clinical chemistry, proteomics, and systems biology. The reference method to quantify peptides and proteins is amino acid analysis (AAA). This consists of an acidic hydrolysis followed by chromatographic separation and spectrophotometric detection of amino acids. Although widely used, this method displays some limitations, in particular the need for large amounts of starting material. Driven by the need to quantify isotope-dilution standards used for absolute quantitative proteomics, particularly stable isotope-labeled (SIL) peptides and PSAQ proteins, we developed a new AAA assay (AAA-MS). This method requires neither derivatization nor chromatographic separation of amino acids. It is based on rapid microwave-assisted acidic hydrolysis followed by high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis of amino acids. Quantification is performed by comparing MS signals from labeled amino acids (SIL peptide- and PSAQ-derived) with those of unlabeled amino acids originating from co-hydrolyzed NIST standard reference materials. For both SIL peptides and PSAQ standards, AAA-MS quantification results were consistent with classical AAA measurements. Compared to AAA assay, AAA-MS was much faster and was 100-fold more sensitive for peptide and protein quantification. Finally, thanks to the development of a labeled protein standard, we also extended AAA-MS analysis to the quantification of unlabeled proteins.

  7. A comparison of sorptive extraction techniques coupled to a new quantitative, sensitive, high throughput GC-MS/MS method for methoxypyrazine analysis in wine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjelmeland, Anna K; Wylie, Philip L; Ebeler, Susan E

    2016-02-01

    Methoxypyrazines are volatile compounds found in plants, microbes, and insects that have potent vegetal and earthy aromas. With sensory detection thresholds in the low ng L(-1) range, modest concentrations of these compounds can profoundly impact the aroma quality of foods and beverages, and high levels can lead to consumer rejection. The wine industry routinely analyzes the most prevalent methoxypyrazine, 2-isobutyl-3-methoxypyrazine (IBMP), to aid in harvest decisions, since concentrations decrease during berry ripening. In addition to IBMP, three other methoxypyrazines IPMP (2-isopropyl-3-methoxypyrazine), SBMP (2-sec-butyl-3-methoxypyrazine), and EMP (2-ethyl-3-methoxypyrazine) have been identified in grapes and/or wine and can impact aroma quality. Despite their routine analysis in the wine industry (mostly IBMP), accurate methoxypyrazine quantitation is hindered by two major challenges: sensitivity and resolution. With extremely low sensory detection thresholds (~8-15 ng L(-1) in wine for IBMP), highly sensitive analytical methods to quantify methoxypyrazines at trace levels are necessary. Here we were able to achieve resolution of IBMP as well as IPMP, EMP, and SBMP from co-eluting compounds using one-dimensional chromatography coupled to positive chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry. Three extraction techniques HS-SPME (headspace-solid phase microextraction), SBSE (stirbar sorptive extraction), and HSSE (headspace sorptive extraction) were validated and compared. A 30 min extraction time was used for HS-SPME and SBSE extraction techniques, while 120 min was necessary to achieve sufficient sensitivity for HSSE extractions. All extraction methods have limits of quantitation (LOQ) at or below 1 ng L(-1) for all four methoxypyrazines analyzed, i.e., LOQ's at or below reported sensory detection limits in wine. The method is high throughput, with resolution of all compounds possible with a relatively rapid 27 min GC oven program. Copyright © 2015

  8. A Sensitive Method Approach for Chromatographic Analysis of Gas Streams in Separation Processes Based on Columns Packed with an Adsorbent Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. A. C. Esteves

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitive method was developed and experimentally validated for the in-line analysis and quantification of gaseous feed and product streams of separation processes under research and development based on column chromatography. The analysis uses a specific mass spectrometry method coupled to engineering processes, such as Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA and Simulated Moving Bed (SMB, which are examples of popular continuous separation technologies that can be used in applications such as natural gas and biogas purifications or carbon dioxide sequestration. These processes employ column adsorption equilibria on adsorbent materials, thus requiring real-time gas stream composition quantification. For this assay, an internal standard is assumed and a single-point calibration is used in a simple mixture-specific algorithm. The accuracy of the method was found to be between 0.01% and 0.25% (-mol for mixtures of CO2, CH4, and N2, tested as case-studies. This makes the method feasible for streams with quality control levels that can be used as a standard monitoring and analyzing procedure.

  9. The surface analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deville, J.P.

    1998-01-01

    Nowadays, there are a lot of surfaces analysis methods, each having its specificity, its qualities, its constraints (for instance vacuum) and its limits. Expensive in time and in investment, these methods have to be used deliberately. This article appeals to non specialists. It gives some elements of choice according to the studied information, the sensitivity, the use constraints or the answer to a precise question. After having recalled the fundamental principles which govern these analysis methods, based on the interaction between radiations (ultraviolet, X) or particles (ions, electrons) with matter, two methods will be more particularly described: the Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) and x-rays photoemission spectroscopy (ESCA or XPS). Indeed, they are the most widespread methods in laboratories, the easier for use and probably the most productive for the analysis of surface of industrial materials or samples submitted to treatments in aggressive media. (O.M.)

  10. Comparison of two ultra-sensitive methods for the determination of 232Th by recovery corrected pre-concentration radiochemical neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glover, S.E.; Qu, H.; LaMont, S.P.; Grimm, C.A.; Filby, R.H.

    2001-01-01

    The determination of isotopic thorium by alpha spectrometric methods is a routine practice for bioassay and environmental measurement programs. Alpha-spectrometry has excellent detection limits (by mass) for all isotopes of thorium except 232 Th due to its extremely long half-life. Improvements in the detection limit an sensitivity over previously reported methods of pre-concentration neutron activation analysis (PCNAA) for the recovery corrected, isotopic determination of thorium in various matrices is discussed. Following irradiation, the samples were dissolved, 231 Pa added as a tracer, and Pa isolated by two different methods and compared (extraction chromatography and anion exchange chromatography) followed by alpha spectrometry for recovery correction. Ion exchange chromatography was found to be superior for this application at this time, principally for reliability. The detection limit for 232 Th of 3.5 x 10 -7 Bq is almost three orders of magnitude lower than for alpha spectrometry using the PCRNAA method and one order of magnitude below previously reported PCNAA methods. (author)

  11. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athena Forghani

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

  13. Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athena Forghani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

  14. Fast, sensitive, and selective gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method for the target analysis of chemical secretions from femoral glands in lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáiz, Jorge; García-Roa, Roberto; Martín, José; Gómara, Belén

    2017-09-08

    Chemical signaling is a widespread mode of communication among living organisms that is used to establish social organization, territoriality and/or for mate choice. In lizards, femoral and precloacal glands are important sources of chemical signals. These glands protrude chemical secretions used to mark territories and also, to provide valuable information from the bearer to other individuals. Ecologists have studied these chemical secretions for decades in order to increase the knowledge of chemical communication in lizards. Although several studies have focused on the chemical analysis of these secretions, there is a lack of faster, more sensitive and more selective analytical methodologies for their study. In this work a new GC coupled to tandem triple quadrupole MS (GC-QqQ (MS/MS)) methodology is developed and proposed for the target study of 12 relevant compounds often found in lizard secretions (i.e. 1-hexadecanol, palmitic acid, 1-octadecanol, oleic acid, stearic acid, 1-tetracosanol, squalene, cholesta-3,5-diene, α-tocopherol, cholesterol, ergosterol and campesterol). The method baseline-separated the analytes in less than 7min, with instrumental limits of detection ranging from 0.04 to 6.0ng/mL. It was possible to identify differences in the composition of the samples from the lizards analyzed, which depended on the species, the habitat occupied and the diet of the individuals. Moreover, α-tocopherol has been determined for the first time in a lizard species, which was thought to lack its expression in chemical secretions. Globally, the methodology has been proven to be a valuable alternative to other published methods with important improvements in terms of analysis time, sensitivity, and selectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A simple and sensitive HPLC method for analysis of imipramine in human plasma with UV detection and liquid-liquid extraction: Application in bioequivalence studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezazadeh, Mahboubeh; Emami, Jaber

    2016-01-01

    High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods employing ultraviolet (UV) detector are not sufficiently sensitive to measure the low plasma concentrations following single oral dose of imipramine. Therefore, in the present study a simple, rapid and yet sensitive HPLC method with UV detection was developed and validated for quantitation of imipramine in human plasma samples. An efficient liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) of imipramine from plasma with the mixture of hexane/isoamyl alcohol (98:2) and back extraction of the drug in acidic medium concomitant with evaporation of organic phase allowed the use of UV detector to conveniently measure plasma levels of this compound as low level as 3 ng/ml. Separation was achieved on a μ-Bondapak C18 HPLC column using sodium hydrogen phosphate solution (0.01 M)/acetonitrile (60/40 v/v) at pH 3.5 ± 0.1 at 1.5 ml/min. Trimipramine was used as the internal standard for analysis of plasma samples. The retention times for imipramine and trimipramine were 4.3 and 5.2 min, respectively. Calibration curve was linear in the range of 3-40 ng/ml using human plasma with the average extraction recovery of 85 ± 5%. Imipramine was found to be stable in plasma samples with no evidence of degradation during three freeze-thaw cycles and three months storage at -70°C. The current validated method was finally applied in bioequivalence studies of two different imipramine products according to a standard two-way crossover design with a two weeks washout period.

  16. Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

    2013-05-02

    A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

  17. Data fusion qualitative sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, E.A.; Lewis, R.E.

    1995-09-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory was tasked with testing, debugging, and refining the Hanford Site data fusion workstation (DFW), with the assistance of Coleman Research Corporation (CRC), before delivering the DFW to the environmental restoration client at the Hanford Site. Data fusion is the mathematical combination (or fusion) of disparate data sets into a single interpretation. The data fusion software used in this study was developed by CRC. The data fusion software developed by CRC was initially demonstrated on a data set collected at the Hanford Site where three types of data were combined. These data were (1) seismic reflection, (2) seismic refraction, and (3) depth to geologic horizons. The fused results included a contour map of the top of a low-permeability horizon. This report discusses the results of a sensitivity analysis of data fusion software to variations in its input parameters. The data fusion software developed by CRC has a large number of input parameters that can be varied by the user and that influence the results of data fusion. Many of these parameters are defined as part of the earth model. The earth model is a series of 3-dimensional polynomials with horizontal spatial coordinates as the independent variables and either subsurface layer depth or values of various properties within these layers (e.g., compression wave velocity, resistivity) as the dependent variables

  18. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, J.

    2005-12-01

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  19. On the Exploitation of Sensitivity Derivatives for Improving Sampling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Yanzhao; Hussaini, M. Yousuff; Zang, Thomas A.

    2003-01-01

    Many application codes, such as finite-element structural analyses and computational fluid dynamics codes, are capable of producing many sensitivity derivatives at a small fraction of the cost of the underlying analysis. This paper describes a simple variance reduction method that exploits such inexpensive sensitivity derivatives to increase the accuracy of sampling methods. Three examples, including a finite-element structural analysis of an aircraft wing, are provided that illustrate an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy for both Monte Carlo and stratified sampling schemes.

  20. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2005-02-01

    Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For

  1. Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model

  2. Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

  3. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John

    2009-09-07

    Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.

    2017-01-01

    A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.

  6. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2004-02-01

    To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this

  7. Image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT: A sensitivity analysis of respiratory signal, binning method, reconstruction algorithm, and projection angular spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shieh, Chun-Chien; Kipritidis, John; O’Brien, Ricky T.; Keall, Paul J.; Kuncic, Zdenka

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Respiratory signal, binning method, and reconstruction algorithm are three major controllable factors affecting image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT (4D-CBCT), which is widely used in image guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Previous studies have investigated each of these factors individually, but no integrated sensitivity analysis has been performed. In addition, projection angular spacing is also a key factor in reconstruction, but how it affects image quality is not obvious. An investigation of the impacts of these four factors on image quality can help determine the most effective strategy in improving 4D-CBCT for IGRT. Methods: Fourteen 4D-CBCT patient projection datasets with various respiratory motion features were reconstructed with the following controllable factors: (i) respiratory signal (real-time position management, projection image intensity analysis, or fiducial marker tracking), (ii) binning method (phase, displacement, or equal-projection-density displacement binning), and (iii) reconstruction algorithm [Feldkamp–Davis–Kress (FDK), McKinnon–Bates (MKB), or adaptive-steepest-descent projection-onto-convex-sets (ASD-POCS)]. The image quality was quantified using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio, and edge-response width in order to assess noise/streaking and blur. The SNR values were also analyzed with respect to the maximum, mean, and root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) projection angular spacing to investigate how projection angular spacing affects image quality. Results: The choice of respiratory signals was found to have no significant impact on image quality. Displacement-based binning was found to be less prone to motion artifacts compared to phase binning in more than half of the cases, but was shown to suffer from large interbin image quality variation and large projection angular gaps. Both MKB and ASD-POCS resulted in noticeably improved image quality almost 100% of the time relative to FDK. In addition, SNR

  8. Image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT: A sensitivity analysis of respiratory signal, binning method, reconstruction algorithm, and projection angular spacing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shieh, Chun-Chien [Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia and Institute of Medical Physics, School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Kipritidis, John; O’Brien, Ricky T.; Keall, Paul J., E-mail: paul.keall@sydney.edu.au [Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Kuncic, Zdenka [Institute of Medical Physics, School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

    2014-04-15

    Purpose: Respiratory signal, binning method, and reconstruction algorithm are three major controllable factors affecting image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT (4D-CBCT), which is widely used in image guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Previous studies have investigated each of these factors individually, but no integrated sensitivity analysis has been performed. In addition, projection angular spacing is also a key factor in reconstruction, but how it affects image quality is not obvious. An investigation of the impacts of these four factors on image quality can help determine the most effective strategy in improving 4D-CBCT for IGRT. Methods: Fourteen 4D-CBCT patient projection datasets with various respiratory motion features were reconstructed with the following controllable factors: (i) respiratory signal (real-time position management, projection image intensity analysis, or fiducial marker tracking), (ii) binning method (phase, displacement, or equal-projection-density displacement binning), and (iii) reconstruction algorithm [Feldkamp–Davis–Kress (FDK), McKinnon–Bates (MKB), or adaptive-steepest-descent projection-onto-convex-sets (ASD-POCS)]. The image quality was quantified using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio, and edge-response width in order to assess noise/streaking and blur. The SNR values were also analyzed with respect to the maximum, mean, and root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) projection angular spacing to investigate how projection angular spacing affects image quality. Results: The choice of respiratory signals was found to have no significant impact on image quality. Displacement-based binning was found to be less prone to motion artifacts compared to phase binning in more than half of the cases, but was shown to suffer from large interbin image quality variation and large projection angular gaps. Both MKB and ASD-POCS resulted in noticeably improved image quality almost 100% of the time relative to FDK. In addition, SNR

  9. SCALE-6 Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods and Covariance Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Mark L.; Rearden, Bradley T.

    2008-01-01

    Computational methods and data used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis within the SCALE nuclear analysis code system are presented. The methodology used to calculate sensitivity coefficients and similarity coefficients and to perform nuclear data adjustment is discussed. A description is provided of the SCALE-6 covariance library based on ENDF/B-VII and other nuclear data evaluations, supplemented by 'low-fidelity' approximate covariances. SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation) is a modular code system developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform calculations for criticality safety, reactor physics, and radiation shielding applications. SCALE calculations typically use sequences that execute a predefined series of executable modules to compute particle fluxes and responses like the critical multiplication factor. SCALE also includes modules for sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of calculated responses. The S/U codes in SCALE are collectively referred to as TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation). SCALE-6-scheduled for release in 2008-contains significant new capabilities, including important enhancements in S/U methods and data. The main functions of TSUNAMI are to (a) compute nuclear data sensitivity coefficients and response uncertainties, (b) establish similarity between benchmark experiments and design applications, and (c) reduce uncertainty in calculated responses by consolidating integral benchmark experiments. TSUNAMI includes easy-to-use graphical user interfaces for defining problem input and viewing three-dimensional (3D) geometries, as well as an integrated plotting package.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  11. Sensitivity Analysis of the Critical Speed in Railway Vehicle Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bigoni, Daniele; True, Hans; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter

    2014-01-01

    We present an approach to global sensitivity analysis aiming at the reduction of its computational cost without compromising the results. The method is based on sampling methods, cubature rules, High-Dimensional Model Representation and Total Sensitivity Indices. The approach has a general applic...

  12. Gravimetric and titrimetric methods of analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rives, R.D.; Bruks, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    Gravimetric and titrimetric methods of analysis are considered. Methods of complexometric titration are mentioned, as well as methods of increasing sensitivity in titrimetry. Gravimetry and titrimetry are applied during analysis for traces of geological materials

  13. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  14. Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the

  15. Sensitivity analysis of a radionuclide transfer model describing contaminated vegetation in Fukushima prefecture, using Morris and Sobol' - Application of sensitivity analysis on a radionuclides transfer model in the environment describing weeds contamination in Fukushima Prefecture, using Morris method and Sobol' indices indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicoulaud-Gouin, V.; Metivier, J.M.; Gonze, M.A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E (France); Garcia-Sanchez, L. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRPENV/SERIS/L2BT (France)

    2014-07-01

    The increasing spatial and temporal complexity of models demands methods capable of ranking the influence of their large numbers of parameters. This question specifically arises in assessment studies on the consequences of the Fukushima accident. Sensitivity analysis aims at measuring the influence of input variability on the output response. Generally, two main approaches are distinguished (Saltelli, 2001, Iooss, 2011): - Screening approach, less expensive in computation time and allowing to identify non influential parameters; - Measures of importance, introducing finer quantitative indices. In this category, there are regression-based methods, assuming a linear or monotonic response (Pearson coefficient, Spearman coefficient), and variance-based methods, without assumptions on the model but requiring an increasingly prohibitive number of evaluations when the number of parameters increases. These approaches are available in various statistical programs (notably R) but are still poorly integrated in modelling platforms of radioecological risk assessment. This work aimed at illustrating the benefits of sensitivity analysis in the course of radioecological risk assessments This study used two complementary state-of-art global sensitivity analysis methods: - The screening method of Morris (Morris, 1991; Campolongo et al., 2007) based on limited model evaluations with a one-at-a-time (OAT) design; - The variance-based Sobol' sensitivity analysis (Saltelli, 2002) based a large number of model evaluations in the parameter space with a quasi-random sampling (Owen, 2003). Sensitivity analyses were applied on a dynamic Soil-Plant Deposition Model (Gonze et al., submitted to this conference) predicting foliar concentration in weeds after atmospheric radionuclide fallout. The Soil-Plant Deposition Model considers two foliage pools and a root pool, and describes foliar biomass growth with a Verhulst model. The developed semi-analytic formulation of foliar concentration

  16. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism Sequencing (MSAP-Seq)—A Method for High-Throughput Analysis of Differentially Methylated CCGG Sites in Plants with Large Genomes

    OpenAIRE

    Karolina Chwialkowska; Urszula Korotko; Joanna Kosinska; Iwona Szarejko; Miroslaw Kwasniewski

    2017-01-01

    Epigenetic mechanisms, including histone modifications and DNA methylation, mutually regulate chromatin structure, maintain genome integrity, and affect gene expression and transposon mobility. Variations in DNA methylation within plant populations, as well as methylation in response to internal and external factors, are of increasing interest, especially in the crop research field. Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP) is one of the most commonly used methods for assessing ...

  17. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudret, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices

  18. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr

    2008-07-15

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.

  19. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

    2015-01-01

    Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

  20. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios Arampatzis

    Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

  1. Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruel, Renata Nunes

    1997-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)

  2. Sensitivity analysis of numerical solutions for environmental fluid problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Nobuatsu; Motoyama, Yasunori

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we present a new numerical method to quantitatively analyze the error of numerical solutions by using the sensitivity analysis. If a reference case of typical parameters is one calculated with the method, no additional calculation is required to estimate the results of the other numerical parameters such as more detailed solutions. Furthermore, we can estimate the strict solution from the sensitivity analysis results and can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical solution by calculating the numerical error. (author)

  3. Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.

    1987-01-01

    The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

  4. Immunoautoradiographic analysis of epidermal growth factor receptors: a sensitive method for the in situ identification of receptor proteins and for studying receptor specificity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Pol, J.A.

    1982-01-01

    The use of an immunoautoradiographic system for the detection and analysis of epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptors in human epidermoid carcinoma A-431 cells is reported. By utilizing this technique, the interaction between EGF and its membrane receptor in A-431 cells can be rapidly visualized. The procedure is simple, rapid, and very sensitive, and it provides conclusive evidence that the 150K dalton protein is the receptor fo EGF in A-431 cells. In summary, the immunoautoradiographic procedure brings to the analysis of hormone rceptor proteins the power that the radioimmunoassay technique has brought to the analysis of hormones. Thus, this assay system is potentially applicable in a wide spectrum in many fields of nuclear medicine and biology

  5. Radiation sensitive area detection device and method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Daniel C. (Inventor); Hecht, Diana L. (Inventor); Witherow, William K. (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    A radiation sensitive area detection device for use in conjunction with an X ray, ultraviolet or other radiation source is provided which comprises a phosphor containing film which releases a stored diffraction pattern image in response to incoming light or other electromagnetic wave. A light source such as a helium-neon laser, an optical fiber capable of directing light from the laser source onto the phosphor film and also capable of channelling the fluoresced light from the phosphor film to an integrating sphere which directs the light to a signal processing means including a light receiving means such as a photomultiplier tube. The signal processing means allows translation of the fluoresced light in order to detect the original pattern caused by the diffraction of the radiation by the original sample. The optical fiber is retained directly in front of the phosphor screen by a thin metal holder which moves up and down across the phosphor screen and which features a replaceable pinhole which allows easy adjustment of the resolution of the light projected onto the phosphor film. The device produces near real time images with high spatial resolution and without the distortion that accompanies prior art devices employing photomultiplier tubes. A method is also provided for carrying out radiation area detection using the device of the invention.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Fire Dynamics Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brohus, Henrik; Nielsen, Peter V.; Petersen, Arnkell J.

    2007-01-01

    (Morris method). The parameters considered are selected among physical parameters and program specific parameters. The influence on the calculation result as well as the CPU time is considered. It is found that the result is highly sensitive to many parameters even though the sensitivity varies...

  7. A Proposal of Estimation Methodology to Improve Calculation Efficiency of Sampling-based Method in Nuclear Data Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung; Noh, Jae Man

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty with the sampling-based method is evaluated by repeating transport calculations with a number of cross section data sampled from the covariance uncertainty data. In the transport calculation with the sampling-based method, the transport equation is not modified; therefore, all uncertainties of the responses such as k eff , reaction rates, flux and power distribution can be directly obtained all at one time without code modification. However, a major drawback with the sampling-based method is that it requires expensive computational load for statistically reliable results (inside confidence level 0.95) in the uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this study is to develop a method for improving the computational efficiency and obtaining highly reliable uncertainty result in using the sampling-based method with Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is a method to reduce the convergence time of the response uncertainty by using the multiple sets of sampled group cross sections in a single Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method was verified by estimating GODIVA benchmark problem and the results were compared with that of conventional sampling-based method. In this study, sampling-based method based on central limit theorem is proposed to improve calculation efficiency by reducing the number of repetitive Monte Carlo transport calculation required to obtain reliable uncertainty analysis results. Each set of sampled group cross sections is assigned to each active cycle group in a single Monte Carlo simulation. The criticality uncertainty for the GODIVA problem is evaluated by the proposed and previous method. The results show that the proposed sampling-based method can efficiently decrease the number of Monte Carlo simulation required for evaluate uncertainty of k eff . It is expected that the proposed method will improve computational efficiency of uncertainty analysis with sampling-based method

  8. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel

    2017-01-01

    This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.

  9. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  10. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  11. A New Sensitive GC-MS-based Method for Analysis of Dipicolinic Acid and Quantifying Bacterial Endospores in Deep Marine Subsurface Sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, J.

    2015-12-01

    Marine sediments cover more than two-thirds of the Earth's surface and represent a major part of the deep biosphere. Microbial cells and microbial activity appear to be widespread in these sediments. Recently, we reported the isolation of gram-positive anaerobic spore-forming piezophilic bacteria and detection of bacterial endospores in marine subsurface sediment from the Shimokita coalbed, Japan. However, the modern molecular microbiological methods (e.g., DNA-based microbial detection techniques) cannot detect bacterial endospore, because endospores are impermeable and are not stained by fluorescence DNA dyes or by ribosomal RNA staining techniques such as catalysed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization. Thus, the total microbial cell abundance in the deep biosphere may has been globally underestimated. This emphasizes the need for a new cultivation independent approach for the quantification of bacterial endospores in the deep subsurface. Dipicolinic acid (DPA, pyridine-2,6-dicarboxylic acid) is a universal and specific component of bacterial endospores, representing 5-15wt% of the dry spore, and therefore is a useful indicator and quantifier of bacterial endospores and permits to estimate total spore numbers in the subsurface biosphere. We developed a sensitive analytical method to quantify DPA content in environmental samples using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The method is sensitive and more convenient in use than other traditional methods. We applied this method to analyzing sediment samples from the South China Sea (obtained from IODP Exp. 349) to determine the abundance of spore-forming bacteria in the deep marine subsurface sediment. Our results suggest that gram-positive, endospore-forming bacteria may be the "unseen majority" in the deep biosphere.

  12. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  13. Data mining methods in the prediction of Dementia: A real-data comparison of the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and random forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santana Isabel

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dementia and cognitive impairment associated with aging are a major medical and social concern. Neuropsychological testing is a key element in the diagnostic procedures of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI, but has presently a limited value in the prediction of progression to dementia. We advance the hypothesis that newer statistical classification methods derived from data mining and machine learning methods like Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Random Forests can improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of predictions obtained from neuropsychological testing. Seven non parametric classifiers derived from data mining methods (Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Networks, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, CART, CHAID and QUEST Classification Trees and Random Forests were compared to three traditional classifiers (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression in terms of overall classification accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, Area under the ROC curve and Press'Q. Model predictors were 10 neuropsychological tests currently used in the diagnosis of dementia. Statistical distributions of classification parameters obtained from a 5-fold cross-validation were compared using the Friedman's nonparametric test. Results Press' Q test showed that all classifiers performed better than chance alone (p Conclusions When taking into account sensitivity, specificity and overall classification accuracy Random Forests and Linear Discriminant analysis rank first among all the classifiers tested in prediction of dementia using several neuropsychological tests. These methods may be used to improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of Dementia predictions from neuropsychological testing.

  14. Verification of the Viability of Equipotential Switching Direct Current Potential Drop Method for Piping Wall Loss Monitoring with Signal Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Kyung Ha; Hwang, Il Soon; Kim, Ji Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) phenomenon of low alloy carbon steels in nuclear power plant has been known as one of major degradation mechanisms. It has a potential to cause nuclear pipe rupture accident which may directly impact on the plant reliability and safety. Recently, the equipotential switching direct current potential drop (ES-DCPD) method has been developed, by the present authors, as a method to monitor wall loss in a piping. This method can rapidly monitor the thinning of piping, utilizing either the wide range monitoring (WiRM) or the narrow range monitoring (NaRM) technique. WiRM is a method to monitor wide range of straight piping, whereas NaRM focuses significantly on a narrow range such as an elbow. WiRM and NaRM can improve the reliability of the current FAC screening method that is based on computer modeling on fluid flow conditions. In this paper, the measurements by ES-DCPD are performed with signal sensitivity analyses in the laboratory environment for extended period and showed the viability of ES-DCPD for real plant applications.

  15. Exploring Intercultural Sensitivity in Early Adolescence: A Mixed Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellizo, Jennifer M.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to explore levels of intercultural sensitivity in a sample of fourth to eighth grade students in the United States (n = 162). "Intercultural sensitivity" was conceptualised through Bennett's Developmental Model of Sensitivity, and assessed through the Adapted Intercultural Sensitivity Index.…

  16. Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

    2012-12-01

    Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present

  17. Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    (PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...

  18. Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqi Li

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.

  19. Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2017-01-01

    simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

  20. Sensitivity functions for uncertainty analysis: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactor performance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenspan, E.

    1982-01-01

    This chapter presents the mathematical basis for sensitivity functions, discusses their physical meaning and information they contain, and clarifies a number of issues concerning their application, including the definition of group sensitivities, the selection of sensitivity functions to be included in the analysis, and limitations of sensitivity theory. Examines the theoretical foundation; criticality reset sensitivities; group sensitivities and uncertainties; selection of sensitivities included in the analysis; and other uses and limitations of sensitivity functions. Gives the theoretical formulation of sensitivity functions pertaining to ''as-built'' designs for performance parameters of the form of ratios of linear flux functionals (such as reaction-rate ratios), linear adjoint functionals, bilinear functions (such as reactivity worth ratios), and for reactor reactivity. Offers a consistent procedure for reducing energy-dependent or fine-group sensitivities and uncertainties to broad group sensitivities and uncertainties. Provides illustrations of sensitivity functions as well as references to available compilations of such functions and of total sensitivities. Indicates limitations of sensitivity theory originating from the fact that this theory is based on a first-order perturbation theory

  1. Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

  2. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  3. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  4. TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Wendell

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.

    1991-01-01

    The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational

  6. Melting curve analysis after T allele enrichment (MelcaTle as a highly sensitive and reliable method for detecting the JAK2V617F mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soji Morishita

    Full Text Available Detection of the JAK2V617F mutation is essential for diagnosing patients with classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs. However, detection of the low-frequency JAK2V617F mutation is a challenging task due to the necessity of discriminating between true-positive and false-positive results. Here, we have developed a highly sensitive and accurate assay for the detection of JAK2V617F and named it melting curve analysis after T allele enrichment (MelcaTle. MelcaTle comprises three steps: 1 two cycles of JAK2V617F allele enrichment by PCR amplification followed by BsaXI digestion, 2 selective amplification of the JAK2V617F allele in the presence of a bridged nucleic acid (BNA probe, and 3 a melting curve assay using a BODIPY-FL-labeled oligonucleotide. Using this assay, we successfully detected nearly a single copy of the JAK2V617F allele, without false-positive signals, using 10 ng of genomic DNA standard. Furthermore, MelcaTle showed no positive signals in 90 assays screening healthy individuals for JAK2V617F. When applying MelcaTle to 27 patients who were initially classified as JAK2V617F-positive on the basis of allele-specific PCR analysis and were thus suspected as having MPNs, we found that two of the patients were actually JAK2V617F-negative. A more careful clinical data analysis revealed that these two patients had developed transient erythrocytosis of unknown etiology but not polycythemia vera, a subtype of MPNs. These findings indicate that the newly developed MelcaTle assay should markedly improve the diagnosis of JAK2V617F-positive MPNs.

  7. EPR method for the detection of sensitization in stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, W.L.; Cowan, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    The overall objective of the program was to improve the reliability of reactor system piping by increasing knowledge of failure causing mechanisms and by enhancing the capability for design evaluation and analysis. Toward the attainment of that objective, a technique has been developed to measure the degree of sensitization quantitatively in thermally treated AISI-304, -304L, -316 and 316L stainless steels. The Electrochemical Potentiokinetic Reactivation (EPR) test was developed because of an industrial need for a rapid, nondestructive, quantitative field test which could be used for assessing sensitization in reactor components. The EPR method consists of developing potentiokinetic curves on a polarized sample obtained by controlled potential sweep from the passive to the active region (reactivation) in a specific electrolyte; details of the test technique have been reported

  8. An efficient method of reducing glass dispersion tolerance sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrold, Scott W.; Shepard, R. Hamilton

    2014-12-01

    Constraining the Seidel aberrations of optical surfaces is a common technique for relaxing tolerance sensitivities in the optimization process. We offer an observation that a lens's Abbe number tolerance is directly related to the magnitude by which its longitudinal and transverse color are permitted to vary in production. Based on this observation, we propose a computationally efficient and easy-to-use merit function constraint for relaxing dispersion tolerance sensitivity. Using the relationship between an element's chromatic aberration and dispersion sensitivity, we derive a fundamental limit for lens scale and power that is capable of achieving high production yield for a given performance specification, which provides insight on the point at which lens splitting or melt fitting becomes necessary. The theory is validated by comparing its predictions to a formal tolerance analysis of a Cooke Triplet, and then applied to the design of a 1.5x visible linescan lens to illustrate optimization for reduced dispersion sensitivity. A selection of lenses in high volume production is then used to corroborate the proposed method of dispersion tolerance allocation.

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2016-01-01

    and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...

  10. Applications of advances in nonlinear sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werbos, P J

    1982-01-01

    The following paper summarizes the major properties and applications of a collection of algorithms involving differentiation and optimization at minimum cost. The areas of application include the sensitivity analysis of models, new work in statistical or econometric estimation, optimization, artificial intelligence and neuron modelling.

  11. Derivative based sensitivity analysis of gamma index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biplab Sarkar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Originally developed as a tool for patient-specific quality assurance in advanced treatment delivery methods to compare between measured and calculated dose distributions, the gamma index (γ concept was later extended to compare between any two dose distributions. It takes into effect both the dose difference (DD and distance-to-agreement (DTA measurements in the comparison. Its strength lies in its capability to give a quantitative value for the analysis, unlike other methods. For every point on the reference curve, if there is at least one point in the evaluated curve that satisfies the pass criteria (e.g., δDD = 1%, δDTA = 1 mm, the point is included in the quantitative score as "pass." Gamma analysis does not account for the gradient of the evaluated curve - it looks at only the minimum gamma value, and if it is <1, then the point passes, no matter what the gradient of evaluated curve is. In this work, an attempt has been made to present a derivative-based method for the identification of dose gradient. A mathematically derived reference profile (RP representing the penumbral region of 6 MV 10 cm × 10 cm field was generated from an error function. A general test profile (GTP was created from this RP by introducing 1 mm distance error and 1% dose error at each point. This was considered as the first of the two evaluated curves. By its nature, this curve is a smooth curve and would satisfy the pass criteria for all points in it. The second evaluated profile was generated as a sawtooth test profile (STTP which again would satisfy the pass criteria for every point on the RP. However, being a sawtooth curve, it is not a smooth one and would be obviously poor when compared with the smooth profile. Considering the smooth GTP as an acceptable profile when it passed the gamma pass criteria (1% DD and 1 mm DTA against the RP, the first and second order derivatives of the DDs (δD', δD" between these two curves were derived and used as the

  12. Sensitivity Analysis for Multidisciplinary Systems (SAMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    release. Distribution is unlimited. 14 Server and Client Code Server from geometry import Point, Geometry import math import zmq class Server...public release; Distribution is unlimited. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 19 Example Application Boeing...Materials Conference, 2011. Cross, D. M., Local continuum sensitivity method for shape design derivatives using spatial gradient reconstruction. Diss

  13. Application of perturbation methods for sensitivity analysis for nuclear power plant steam generators; Aplicacao da teoria de perturbacao a analise de sensibilidade em geradores de vapor de usinas nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gurjao, Emir Candeia

    1996-02-01

    The differential and GPT (Generalized Perturbation Theory) formalisms of the Perturbation Theory were applied in this work to a simplified U-tubes steam generator model to perform sensitivity analysis. The adjoint and importance equations, with the corresponding expressions for the sensitivity coefficients, were derived for this steam generator model. The system was numerically was numerically solved in a Fortran program, called GEVADJ, in order to calculate the sensitivity coefficients. A transient loss of forced primary coolant in the nuclear power plant Angra-1 was used as example case. The average and final values of functionals: secondary pressure and enthalpy were studied in relation to changes in the secondary feedwater flow, enthalpy and total volume in secondary circuit. Absolute variations in the above functionals were calculated using the perturbative methods, considering the variations in the feedwater flow and total secondary volume. Comparison with the same variations obtained via direct model showed in general good agreement, demonstrating the potentiality of perturbative methods for sensitivity analysis of nuclear systems. (author) 22 refs., 7 figs., 8 tabs.

  14. Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

  15. Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical

  16. Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography detection method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colston, B W; DaSilva, L B; Everett, M J; Featherstone, J D B; Fried, D; Ragadio, J N; Sathyam, U S.

    1999-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential of polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) for non-invasive in vivo detection and characterization of early, incipient caries lesions. PS-OCT generates cross-sectional images of biological tissue while measuring the effect of the tissue on the polarization state of incident light. Clear discrimination between regions of normal and demineralized enamel is first shown in PS-OCT images of bovine enamel blocks containing well-characterized artificial lesions. High-resolution, cross-sectional images of extracted human teeth are then generated that clearly discriminate between the normal and carious regions on both the smooth and occlusal surfaces. Regions of the teeth that appeared to be demineralized in the PS-OCT images were verified using histological thin sections examined under polarized light microscopy. The PS-OCT system discriminates between normal and carious regions by measuring the polarization state of the back-scattered 1310 nm light, which is affected by the state of demineralization of the enamel. Demineralization of enamel increases the scattering coefficient, thus depolarizing the incident light. This study shows that PS-OCT has great potential for the detection, characterization, and monitoring of incipient caries lesions

  17. Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

    2016-01-01

    Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

  18. Analysis of AtGUS1 and AtGUS2 in Arabidopsis root apex by a highly sensitive TSA-MISH method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Leonardo; Ronchini, Matteo; Gagliardi, Olimpia; Corinti, Tamara; Chiappetta, Adriana; Gerola, Paolo; Bitonti, Maria B

    2015-01-01

    A new highly sensitive whole-mount in situ hybridization method, based on tyramide signal amplification (TSA-MISH) was developed and a combined GFP detection and TSA-MISH procedure was applied for the first time in plants, to precisely define the spatial pattern of AtGUS1 and AtGUS2 expression in the root apex. β-glucuronidases (GUSs) belonging to the glycosyl hydrolases (GHs) 79 family, are widely distributed in plants, but their functional role has not yet been fully investigated. In the model system Arabidopsis Thaliana, three different AtGUS genes have been identified which encode proteins with putative different fates. Endogenous GUS expression has been detected in different organs and tissues, but the cyto-histological domains of gene expression remain unclear. The results here reported show co-expression of AtGUS1 and AtGUS2 in different functional zones of the root apex (the cap central zone, the root cap meristem, the staminal cell niche and the cortical cell layers of the proximal meristem), while AtGUS2 is exclusively expressed in the cap peripheral layer and in the epidermis in the elongation zone. Interestingly, both genes are not expressed in the stelar portion of the proximal meristem. A spatial (cortex vs. stele) and temporal (proximal meristem vs. transition zone) regulation of AtGUS1 and AtGUS2 expression is therefore active in the root apex. This expression pattern, although globally consistent with the involvement of GUS activity in both cell proliferation and elongation, clearly indicates that AtGUS1 and AtGUS2 could control distinct downstream process depending on the developmental context and the interaction with other players of root growth control. In the future, the newly developed approaches may well be very useful to dissect such interactions.

  19. Method of characteristics - Based sensitivity calculations for international PWR benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suslov, I. R.; Tormyshev, I. V.; Komlev, O. G.

    2013-01-01

    Method to calculate sensitivity of fractional-linear neutron flux functionals to transport equation coefficients is proposed. Implementation of the method on the basis of MOC code MCCG3D is developed. Sensitivity calculations for fission intensity for international PWR benchmark are performed. (authors)

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral

  1. Deterministic Local Sensitivity Analysis of Augmented Systems - I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan G.; Ionescu-Bujor, Mihaela

    2005-01-01

    This work provides the theoretical foundation for the modular implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for large-scale simulation systems. The implementation of the ASAP commences with a selected code module and then proceeds by augmenting the size of the adjoint sensitivity system, module by module, until the entire system is completed. Notably, the adjoint sensitivity system for the augmented system can often be solved by using the same numerical methods used for solving the original, nonaugmented adjoint system, particularly when the matrix representation of the adjoint operator for the augmented system can be inverted by partitioning

  2. A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.

  3. Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.

    1986-10-01

    A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves

  4. A sensitive and efficient method for routine pesticide multiresidue analysis in bee pollen samples using gas and liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, P Parrilla; Lozano, A; Uclés, S; Ramos, M M Gómez; Fernández-Alba, A R

    2015-12-24

    Several clean-up methods were evaluated for 253 pesticides in pollen samples concentrating on efficient clean-up and the highest number of pesticides satisfying the recovery and precision criteria. These were: (a) modified QuEChERS using dSPE with PSA+C18; (b) freeze-out prior to QuEChERS using dSPE with PSA+C18; (c) freeze-out prior to QuEChERS using dSPE with PSA+C18+Z-Sep; and (d) freeze-out followed by QuEChERS using dSPE with PSA+C18 and SPE with Z-Sep. Determinations were made using LC-MS/MS and GC-MS/MS. The modified QuEChERS protocol applying a freeze-out followed by dSPE with PSA+C18 and SPE clean-up with Z-Sep was selected because it provided the highest number of pesticides with mean recoveries in the 70-120% range, as well as relative standard deviations (RSDs) typically below 20% (12.2% on average) and ensured much better removal of co-extracted matrix compounds of paramount importance in routine analysis. Limits of quantification at levels as low as 5μgkg(-1) were obtained for the majority of the pesticides. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of 41 pollen bee samples from different areas in Spain. Pesticides considered potentially toxic to bees (DL50bee) were detected in some samples with concentrations up to 72.7μgkg(-1), which could negatively affect honeybee health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  6. Variance estimation for sensitivity analysis of poverty and inequality measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of poverty and inequality are often based on application of a single equivalence scale, despite the fact that a large number of different equivalence scales can be found in the literature. This paper describes a framework for sensitivity analysis which can be used to account for the variability of equivalence scales and allows to derive variance estimates of results of sensitivity analysis. Simulations show that this method yields reliable estimates. An empirical application reveals that accounting for both variability of equivalence scales and sampling variance leads to confidence intervals which are wide.

  7. Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Králik Juraj

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.

  8. The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika

    2015-01-01

    Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929

  9. Sensitivity analysis of critical experiment with direct perturbation compared to TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barber, A. D.; Busch, R.

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this work is to obtain sensitivities from direct uncertainty analysis calculation and correlate those calculated values with the sensitivities produced from TSUNAMI-3D (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation in Three Dimensions). A full sensitivity analysis is performed on a critical experiment to determine the overall uncertainty of the experiment. Small perturbation calculations are performed for all known uncertainties to obtain the total uncertainty of the experiment. The results from a critical experiment are only known as well as the geometric and material properties. The goal of this relationship is to simplify the uncertainty quantification process in assessing a critical experiment, while still considering all of the important parameters. (authors)

  10. Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)

  11. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  12. Empirical Benchmarks of Hidden Bias in Educational Research: Implication for Assessing How well Propensity Score Methods Approximate Experiments and Conducting Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Nianbo; Lipsey, Mark

    2014-01-01

    When randomized control trials (RCT) are not feasible, researchers seek other methods to make causal inference, e.g., propensity score methods. One of the underlined assumptions for the propensity score methods to obtain unbiased treatment effect estimates is the ignorability assumption, that is, conditional on the propensity score, treatment…

  13. Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S

    2018-03-31

    In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  14. Are LOD and LOQ Reliable Parameters for Sensitivity Evaluation of Spectroscopic Methods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershadi, Saba; Shayanfar, Ali

    2018-03-22

    The limit of detection (LOD) and the limit of quantification (LOQ) are common parameters to assess the sensitivity of analytical methods. In this study, the LOD and LOQ of previously reported terbium sensitized analysis methods were calculated by different methods, and the results were compared with sensitivity parameters [lower limit of quantification (LLOQ)] of U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidelines. The details of the calibration curve and standard deviation of blank samples of three different terbium-sensitized luminescence methods for the quantification of mycophenolic acid, enrofloxacin, and silibinin were used for the calculation of LOD and LOQ. A comparison of LOD and LOQ values calculated by various methods and LLOQ shows a considerable difference. The significant difference of the calculated LOD and LOQ with various methods and LLOQ should be considered in the sensitivity evaluation of spectroscopic methods.

  15. An adjoint sensitivity-based data assimilation method and its comparison with existing variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghan Choi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An adjoint sensitivity-based data assimilation (ASDA method is proposed and applied to a heavy rainfall case over the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall case, which occurred on 26 July 2006, caused torrential rainfall over the central part of the Korean Peninsula. The mesoscale convective system (MCS related to the heavy rainfall was classified as training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS-type for the earlier period, and back building (BB-type for the later period. In the ASDA method, an adjoint model is run backwards with forecast-error gradient as input, and the adjoint sensitivity of the forecast error to the initial condition is scaled by an optimal scaling factor. The optimal scaling factor is determined by minimising the observational cost function of the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var method, and the scaled sensitivity is added to the original first guess. Finally, the observations at the analysis time are assimilated using a 3D-Var method with the improved first guess. The simulated rainfall distribution is shifted northeastward compared to the observations when no radar data are assimilated or when radar data are assimilated using the 3D-Var method. The rainfall forecasts are improved when radar data are assimilated using the 4D-Var or ASDA method. Simulated atmospheric fields such as horizontal winds, temperature, and water vapour mixing ratio are also improved via the 4D-Var or ASDA method. Due to the improvement in the analysis, subsequent forecasts appropriately simulate the observed features of the TL/AS- and BB-type MCSs and the corresponding heavy rainfall. The computational cost associated with the ASDA method is significantly lower than that of the 4D-Var method.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal

    2008-08-01

    Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

  17. Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun

    2013-01-01

    Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)

  18. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim

    2013-01-01

    The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis

  19. Methods of Multivariate Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rencher, Alvin C

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Second Edition "This book is a systematic, well-written, well-organized text on multivariate analysis packed with intuition and insight . . . There is much practical wisdom in this book that is hard to find elsewhere."-IIE Transactions Filled with new and timely content, Methods of Multivariate Analysis, Third Edition provides examples and exercises based on more than sixty real data sets from a wide variety of scientific fields. It takes a "methods" approach to the subject, placing an emphasis on how students and practitioners can employ multivariate analysis in real-life sit

  20. Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems

  1. Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab

  2. Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more

  3. Design Optimization Method for Composite Components Based on Moment Reliability-Sensitivity Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhigang; Wang, Changxi; Niu, Xuming; Song, Yingdong

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a Reliability-Sensitivity Based Design Optimization (RSBDO) methodology for the design of the ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) components has been proposed. A practical and efficient method for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex components with arbitrary distribution parameters are investigated by using the perturbation method, the respond surface method, the Edgeworth series and the sensitivity analysis approach. The RSBDO methodology is then established by incorporating sensitivity calculation model into RBDO methodology. Finally, the proposed RSBDO methodology is applied to the design of the CMCs components. By comparing with Monte Carlo simulation, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an accurate, convergent and computationally efficient method for reliability-analysis based finite element modeling engineering practice.

  4. A new method of removing the high value feedback resistor in the charge sensitive preamplifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xi Deming

    1993-01-01

    A new method of removing the high value feedback resistor in the charge sensitive preamplifier is introduced. The circuit analysis of this novel design is described and the measured performances of a practical circuit are provided

  5. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.

    1983-10-01

    A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

  6. Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar

    2013-01-01

    The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of floating offshore wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro-Santos, Laura; Diaz-Casas, Vicente

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on IRR, NPV, pay-back period, LCOE and cost of power. • Important variables: distance, wind resource, electric tariff, etc. • It helps to investors to take decisions in the future. - Abstract: The future of offshore wind energy will be in deep waters. In this context, the main objective of the present paper is to develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. It will show how much the output variables can vary when the input variables are changing. For this purpose two different scenarios will be taken into account: the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm (cost of conception and definition, cost of design and development, cost of manufacturing, cost of installation, cost of exploitation and cost of dismantling) and the most important economic indexes in terms of economic feasibility of a floating offshore wind farm (internal rate of return, net present value, discounted pay-back period, levelized cost of energy and cost of power). Results indicate that the most important variables in economic terms are the number of wind turbines and the distance from farm to shore in the costs’ scenario, and the wind scale parameter and the electric tariff for the economic indexes. This study will help investors to take into account these variables in the development of floating offshore wind farms in the future

  8. Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used

  9. Least Squares Shadowing sensitivity analysis of chaotic limit cycle oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu; Hu, Rui, E-mail: hurui@mit.edu; Blonigan, Patrick, E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu

    2014-06-15

    The adjoint method, among other sensitivity analysis methods, can fail in chaotic dynamical systems. The result from these methods can be too large, often by orders of magnitude, when the result is the derivative of a long time averaged quantity. This failure is known to be caused by ill-conditioned initial value problems. This paper overcomes this failure by replacing the initial value problem with the well-conditioned “least squares shadowing (LSS) problem”. The LSS problem is then linearized in our sensitivity analysis algorithm, which computes a derivative that converges to the derivative of the infinitely long time average. We demonstrate our algorithm in several dynamical systems exhibiting both periodic and chaotic oscillations.

  10. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  11. Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.

  12. Sensitization trajectories in childhood revealed by using a cluster analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoos, Ann-Marie M.; Chawes, Bo L.; Melen, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 (COPSAC2000) birth cohort with specific IgE against 13 common food and inhalant allergens at the ages of ½, 1½, 4, and 6 years. An unsupervised cluster analysis for 3-dimensional data (nonnegative sparse parallel factor analysis) was used to extract latent......BACKGROUND: Assessment of sensitization at a single time point during childhood provides limited clinical information. We hypothesized that sensitization develops as specific patterns with respect to age at debut, development over time, and involved allergens and that such patterns might be more...... biologically and clinically relevant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore latent patterns of sensitization during the first 6 years of life and investigate whether such patterns associate with the development of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. METHODS: We investigated 398 children from the at-risk Copenhagen...

  13. Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.

    1987-01-01

    The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig

  14. Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent laminar flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristova, H.; Etienne, S.; Pelletier, D.; Borggaard, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general sensitivity equation method (SEM) for time dependent incompressible laminar flows. The SEM accounts for complex parameter dependence and is suitable for a wide range of problems. The formulation is verified on a problem with a closed form solution obtained by the method of manufactured solution. Systematic grid convergence studies confirm the theoretical rates of convergence in both space and time. The methodology is then applied to pulsatile flow around a square cylinder. Computations show that the flow starts with symmetrical vortex shedding followed by a transition to the traditional Von Karman street (alternate vortex shedding). Simulations show that the transition phase manifests itself earlier in the sensitivity fields than in the flow field itself. Sensitivities are then demonstrated for fast evaluation of nearby flows and uncertainty analysis. (author)

  15. The Effects of Head Start on Children's Kindergarten Retention, Reading and Math Achievement in Fall Kindergarten--An Application of Propensity Score Method and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Nianbo

    2009-01-01

    Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), this paper applied optimal propensity score matching method to evaluate the effects of Head Start on children's kindergarten retention, reading and math achievement in fall kindergarten comparing with center-based care. Both parametric and nonparametric…

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.

    1997-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)

  17. Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...

  18. Temperature sensitive surfaces and methods of making same

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Liang [Richland, WA; Rieke, Peter C [Pasco, WA; Alford, Kentin L [Pasco, WA

    2002-09-10

    Poly-n-isopropylacrylamide surface coatings demonstrate the useful property of being able to switch charateristics depending upon temperature. More specifically, these coatings switch from being hydrophilic at low temperature to hydrophobic at high temperature. Research has been conducted for many years to better characterize and control the properties of temperature sensitive coatings. The present invention provides novel temperature sensitive coatings on articles and novel methods of making temperature sensitive coatings that are disposed on the surfaces of various articles. These novel coatings contain the reaction products of n-isopropylacrylamide and are characterized by their properties such as advancing contact angles. Numerous other characteristics such as coating thickness, surface roughness, and hydrophilic-to-hydrophobic transition temperatures are also described. The present invention includes articles having temperature-sensitve coatings with improved properties as well as improved methods for forming temperature sensitive coatings.

  19. Methods for RNA Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivarius, Signe

    of the transcriptome, 5’ end capture of RNA is combined with next-generation sequencing for high-throughput quantitative assessment of transcription start sites by two different methods. The methods presented here allow for functional investigation of coding as well as noncoding RNA and contribute to future...... RNAs rely on interactions with proteins, the establishment of protein-binding profiles is essential for the characterization of RNAs. Aiming to facilitate RNA analysis, this thesis introduces proteomics- as well as transcriptomics-based methods for the functional characterization of RNA. First, RNA...

  20. A new importance measure for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Qiao; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty is an integral part of risk assessment of complex engineering systems, such as nuclear power plants and space crafts. The aim of sensitivity analysis is to identify the contribution of the uncertainty in model inputs to the uncertainty in the model output. In this study, a new importance measure that characterizes the influence of the entire input distribution on the entire output distribution was proposed. It represents the expected deviation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model output that would be obtained when one input parameter of interest were known. The applicability of this importance measure was tested with two models, a nonlinear nonmonotonic mathematical model and a risk model. In addition, a comparison of this new importance measure with several other importance measures was carried out and the differences between these measures were explained. (author)

  1. DEA Sensitivity Analysis for Parallel Production Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gerami

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce systems consisting of several production units, each of which include several subunits working in parallel. Meanwhile, each subunit is working independently. The input and output of each production unit are the sums of the inputs and outputs of its subunits, respectively. We consider each of these subunits as an independent decision making unit(DMU and create the production possibility set(PPS produced by these DMUs, in which the frontier points are considered as efficient DMUs. Then we introduce models for obtaining the efficiency of the production subunits. Using super-efficiency models, we categorize all efficient subunits into different efficiency classes. Then we follow by presenting the sensitivity analysis and stability problem for efficient subunits, including extreme efficient and non-extreme efficient subunits, assuming simultaneous perturbations in all inputs and outputs of subunits such that the efficiency of the subunit under evaluation declines while the efficiencies of other subunits improve.

  2. Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.

    1983-01-01

    The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery

  3. Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei

    2009-01-01

    Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes

  4. Analysis of numerical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Isaacson, Eugene

    1994-01-01

    This excellent text for advanced undergraduates and graduate students covers norms, numerical solution of linear systems and matrix factoring, iterative solutions of nonlinear equations, eigenvalues and eigenvectors, polynomial approximation, and other topics. It offers a careful analysis and stresses techniques for developing new methods, plus many examples and problems. 1966 edition.

  5. Derivatization method of free cyanide including cyanogen chloride for the sensitive analysis of cyanide in chlorinated drinking water by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hye-In; Shin, Ho-Sang

    2015-01-20

    A novel derivatization method of free cyanide (HCN + CN(-)) including cyanogen chloride in chlorinated drinking water was developed with d-cysteine and hypochlorite. The optimum conditions (0.5 mM D-cysteine, 0.5 mM hypochlorite, pH 4.5, and a reaction time of 10 min at room temperature) were established by the variation of parameters. Cyanide (C(13)N(15)) was chosen as an internal standard. The formed β-thiocyanoalanine was directly injected into a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometer without any additional extraction or purification procedures. Under the established conditions, the limits of detection and the limits of quantification were 0.07 and 0.2 μg/L, respectively, and the interday relative standard deviation was less than 4% at concentrations of 4.0, 20.0, and 100.0 μg/L. The method was successfully applied to determine CN(-) in chlorinated water samples. The detected concentration range and detection frequency of CN(-) were 0.20-8.42 μg/L (14/24) in source drinking water and 0.21-1.03 μg/L (18/24) in chlorinated drinking water.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of dynamic characteristic of the fixture based on design variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dongsheng; Nong Shaoning; Zhang Sijian; Ren Wanfa

    2002-01-01

    The research on the sensitivity analysis is dealt with of structural natural frequencies to structural design parameters. A typical fixture for vibration test is designed. Using I-DEAS Finite Element programs, the sensitivity of its natural frequency to design parameters is analyzed by Matrix Perturbation Method. The research result shows that the sensitivity analysis is a fast and effective dynamic re-analysis method to dynamic design and parameters modification of complex structures such as fixtures

  7. System reliability assessment via sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    1988-01-01

    Methods for reliability sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme are presented, together with a new formulation which makes use of Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) methods. As well known, sensitivity methods are fundamental in system risk analysis, since they allow to identify important components, so to assist the analyst in finding weaknesses in design and operation and in suggesting optimal modifications for system upgrade. The relationship between the GPT sensitivity expression and the Birnbaum importance is also given [fr

  8. Stochastic sensitivity analysis and Langevin simulation for neural network learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koda, Masato

    1997-01-01

    A comprehensive theoretical framework is proposed for the learning of a class of gradient-type neural networks with an additive Gaussian white noise process. The study is based on stochastic sensitivity analysis techniques, and formal expressions are obtained for stochastic learning laws in terms of functional derivative sensitivity coefficients. The present method, based on Langevin simulation techniques, uses only the internal states of the network and ubiquitous noise to compute the learning information inherent in the stochastic correlation between noise signals and the performance functional. In particular, the method does not require the solution of adjoint equations of the back-propagation type. Thus, the present algorithm has the potential for efficiently learning network weights with significantly fewer computations. Application to an unfolded multi-layered network is described, and the results are compared with those obtained by using a back-propagation method

  9. Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, Andrej

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

  10. Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trucano, T.G.; Swiler, L.P.; Igusa, T.; Oberkampf, W.L.; Pilch, M.

    2006-01-01

    One very simple interpretation of calibration is to adjust a set of parameters associated with a computational science and engineering code so that the model agreement is maximized with respect to a set of experimental data. One very simple interpretation of validation is to quantify our belief in the predictive capability of a computational code through comparison with a set of experimental data. Uncertainty in both the data and the code are important and must be mathematically understood to correctly perform both calibration and validation. Sensitivity analysis, being an important methodology in uncertainty analysis, is thus important to both calibration and validation. In this paper, we intend to clarify the language just used and express some opinions on the associated issues. We will endeavor to identify some technical challenges that must be resolved for successful validation of a predictive modeling capability. One of these challenges is a formal description of a 'model discrepancy' term. Another challenge revolves around the general adaptation of abstract learning theory as a formalism that potentially encompasses both calibration and validation in the face of model uncertainty

  11. Anisotropic analysis for seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Hsu, K.

    2011-12-01

    Taiwan is located at the boundaries of Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. The movement of plate causes crustal uplift and lateral deformation to lead frequent earthquakes in the vicinity of Taiwan. The change of groundwater level trigged by earthquake has been observed and studied in Taiwan for many years. The change of groundwater may appear in oscillation and step changes. The former is caused by seismic waves. The latter is caused by the volumetric strain and reflects the strain status. Since the setting of groundwater monitoring well is easier and cheaper than the setting of strain gauge, the groundwater measurement may be used as a indication of stress. This research proposes the concept of seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring well and apply to DonHer station in Taiwan. Geostatistical method is used to analysis the anisotropy of seismic sensitivity. GIS is used to map the sensitive area of the existing groundwater monitoring well.

  12. Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi

    To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.

  13. Sensitivity Analysis of Deviation Source for Fast Assembly Precision Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assembly precision optimization of complex product has a huge benefit in improving the quality of our products. Due to the impact of a variety of deviation source coupling phenomena, the goal of assembly precision optimization is difficult to be confirmed accurately. In order to achieve optimization of assembly precision accurately and rapidly, sensitivity analysis of deviation source is proposed. First, deviation source sensitivity is defined as the ratio of assembly dimension variation and deviation source dimension variation. Second, according to assembly constraint relations, assembly sequences and locating, deviation transmission paths are established by locating the joints between the adjacent parts, and establishing each part’s datum reference frame. Third, assembly multidimensional vector loops are created using deviation transmission paths, and the corresponding scalar equations of each dimension are established. Then, assembly deviation source sensitivity is calculated by using a first-order Taylor expansion and matrix transformation method. Finally, taking assembly precision optimization of wing flap rocker as an example, the effectiveness and efficiency of the deviation source sensitivity analysis method are verified.

  14. Rapid and sensitive analysis of 27 underivatized free amino acids, dipeptides, and tripeptides in fruits of Siraitia grosvenorii Swingle using HILIC-UHPLC-QTRAP(®)/MS (2) combined with chemometrics methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guisheng; Wang, Mengyue; Li, Yang; Peng, Ying; Li, Xiaobo

    2015-08-01

    In the present study, a new strategy based on chemical analysis and chemometrics methods was proposed for the comprehensive analysis and profiling of underivatized free amino acids (FAAs) and small peptides among various Luo-Han-Guo (LHG) samples. Firstly, the ultrasound-assisted extraction (UAE) parameters were optimized using Plackett-Burman (PB) screening and Box-Behnken designs (BBD), and the following optimal UAE conditions were obtained: ultrasound power of 280 W, extraction time of 43 min, and the solid-liquid ratio of 302 mL/g. Secondly, a rapid and sensitive analytical method was developed for simultaneous quantification of 24 FAAs and 3 active small peptides in LHG at trace levels using hydrophilic interaction ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple-quadrupole linear ion-trap tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-UHPLC-QTRAP(®)/MS(2)). The analytical method was validated by matrix effects, linearity, LODs, LOQs, precision, repeatability, stability, and recovery. Thirdly, the proposed optimal UAE conditions and analytical methods were applied to measurement of LHG samples. It was shown that LHG was rich in essential amino acids, which were beneficial nutrient substances for human health. Finally, based on the contents of the 27 analytes, the chemometrics methods of unsupervised principal component analysis (PCA) and supervised counter propagation artificial neural network (CP-ANN) were applied to differentiate and classify the 40 batches of LHG samples from different cultivated forms, regions, and varieties. As a result, these samples were mainly clustered into three clusters, which illustrated the cultivating disparity among the samples. In summary, the presented strategy had potential for the investigation of edible plants and agricultural products containing FAAs and small peptides.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1995-01-01

    Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years

  16. Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

    2017-11-27

    Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  18. Resonance-induced sensitivity enhancement method for conductivity sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Yu-Chong (Inventor); Shih, Chi-yuan (Inventor); Li, Wei (Inventor); Zheng, Siyang (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    Methods and systems for improving the sensitivity of a variety of conductivity sensing devices, in particular capacitively-coupled contactless conductivity detectors. A parallel inductor is added to the conductivity sensor. The sensor with the parallel inductor is operated at a resonant frequency of the equivalent circuit model. At the resonant frequency, parasitic capacitances that are either in series or in parallel with the conductance (and possibly a series resistance) is substantially removed from the equivalent circuit, leaving a purely resistive impedance. An appreciably higher sensor sensitivity results. Experimental verification shows that sensitivity improvements of the order of 10,000-fold are possible. Examples of detecting particulates with high precision by application of the apparatus and methods of operation are described.

  19. High sensitivity phase retrieval method in grating-based x-ray phase contrast imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhao; Gao, Kun; Chen, Jian; Wang, Dajiang; Wang, Shenghao; Chen, Heng; Bao, Yuan; Shao, Qigang; Wang, Zhili, E-mail: wangnsrl@ustc.edu.cn [National Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230029 (China); Zhang, Kai [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Zhu, Peiping; Wu, Ziyu, E-mail: wuzy@ustc.edu.cn [National Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230029, China and Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: Grating-based x-ray phase contrast imaging is considered as one of the most promising techniques for future medical imaging. Many different methods have been developed to retrieve phase signal, among which the phase stepping (PS) method is widely used. However, further practical implementations are hindered, due to its complex scanning mode and high radiation dose. In contrast, the reverse projection (RP) method is a novel fast and low dose extraction approach. In this contribution, the authors present a quantitative analysis of the noise properties of the refraction signals retrieved by the two methods and compare their sensitivities. Methods: Using the error propagation formula, the authors analyze theoretically the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of the refraction images retrieved by the two methods. Then, the sensitivities of the two extraction methods are compared under an identical exposure dose. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical results and provide some quantitative insight. Results: The SNRs of the two methods are both dependent on the system parameters, but in different ways. Comparison between their sensitivities reveals that for the refraction signal, the RP method possesses a higher sensitivity, especially in the case of high visibility and/or at the edge of the object. Conclusions: Compared with the PS method, the RP method has a superior sensitivity and provides refraction images with a higher SNR. Therefore, one can obtain highly sensitive refraction images in grating-based phase contrast imaging. This is very important for future preclinical and clinical implementations.

  20. High sensitivity phase retrieval method in grating-based x-ray phase contrast imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zhao; Gao, Kun; Chen, Jian; Wang, Dajiang; Wang, Shenghao; Chen, Heng; Bao, Yuan; Shao, Qigang; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Kai; Zhu, Peiping; Wu, Ziyu

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Grating-based x-ray phase contrast imaging is considered as one of the most promising techniques for future medical imaging. Many different methods have been developed to retrieve phase signal, among which the phase stepping (PS) method is widely used. However, further practical implementations are hindered, due to its complex scanning mode and high radiation dose. In contrast, the reverse projection (RP) method is a novel fast and low dose extraction approach. In this contribution, the authors present a quantitative analysis of the noise properties of the refraction signals retrieved by the two methods and compare their sensitivities. Methods: Using the error propagation formula, the authors analyze theoretically the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of the refraction images retrieved by the two methods. Then, the sensitivities of the two extraction methods are compared under an identical exposure dose. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical results and provide some quantitative insight. Results: The SNRs of the two methods are both dependent on the system parameters, but in different ways. Comparison between their sensitivities reveals that for the refraction signal, the RP method possesses a higher sensitivity, especially in the case of high visibility and/or at the edge of the object. Conclusions: Compared with the PS method, the RP method has a superior sensitivity and provides refraction images with a higher SNR. Therefore, one can obtain highly sensitive refraction images in grating-based phase contrast imaging. This is very important for future preclinical and clinical implementations

  1. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

    1999-01-01

    Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  3. Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Adam

    2015-01-01

    During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

  4. Supercritical extraction of oleaginous: parametric sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos M.M.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The economy has become universal and competitive, thus the industries of vegetable oil extraction must advance in the sense of minimising production costs and, at the same time, generating products that obey more rigorous patterns of quality, including solutions that do not damage the environment. The conventional oilseed processing uses hexane as solvent. However, this solvent is toxic and highly flammable. Thus the search of substitutes for hexane in oleaginous extraction process has increased in the last years. The supercritical carbon dioxide is a potential substitute for hexane, but it is necessary more detailed studies to understand the phenomena taking place in such process. Thus, in this work a diffusive model for semi-continuous (batch for the solids and continuous for the solvent isothermal and isobaric extraction process using supercritical carbon dioxide is presented and submitted to a parametric sensitivity analysis by means of a factorial design in two levels. The model parameters were disturbed and their main effects analysed, so that it is possible to propose strategies for high performance operation.

  5. Sensitive high performance liquid chromatographic method for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new simple, sensitive, cost-effective and reproducible high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) method for the determination of proguanil (PG) and its metabolites, cycloguanil (CG) and 4-chlorophenylbiguanide (4-CPB) in urine and plasma is described. The extraction procedure is a simple three-step process ...

  6. Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before

  7. Quantitative real-time PCR as a sensitive protein-protein interaction quantification method and a partial solution for non-accessible autoactivator and false-negative molecule analysis in the yeast two-hybrid system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Richard H; Maier, Christina J; Hintner, Helmut; Bauer, Johann W; Onder, Kamil

    2012-12-01

    Many functional proteomic experiments make use of high-throughput technologies such as mass spectrometry combined with two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and the yeast two-hybrid (Y2H) system. Currently there are even automated versions of the Y2H system available that can be used for proteome-wide research. The Y2H system has the capacity to deliver a profusion of Y2H positive colonies from a single library screen. However, subsequent analysis of these numerous primary candidates with complementary methods can be overwhelming. Therefore, a method to select the most promising candidates with strong interaction properties might be useful to reduce the number of candidates requiring further analysis. The method described here offers a new way of quantifying and rating the performance of positive Y2H candidates. The novelty lies in the detection and measurement of mRNA expression instead of proteins or conventional Y2H genetic reporters. This method correlates well with the direct genetic reporter readouts usually used in the Y2H system, and has greater sensitivity for detecting and quantifying protein-protein interactions (PPIs) than the conventional Y2H system, as demonstrated by detection of the Y2H false-negative PPI of RXR/PPARG. Approximately 20% of all proteins are not suitable for the Y2H system, the so-called autoactivators. A further advantage of this method is the possibility to evaluate molecules that usually cannot be analyzed in the Y2H system, exemplified by a VDR-LXXLL motif peptide interaction. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca

    2006-01-01

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA

  9. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)

    2006-10-15

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.

  10. SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1980-01-01

    SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

  11. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2008-08-01

    Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion

  12. Probability and sensitivity analysis of machine foundation and soil interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Králik J., jr.

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the possibility of the sensitivity and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the machine foundation depending on variability of the soil stiffness, structure geometry and compressor operation. The requirements to design of the foundation under rotating machines increased due to development of calculation method and computer tools. During the structural design process, an engineer has to consider problems of the soil-foundation and foundation-machine interaction from the safety, reliability and durability of structure point of view. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the machine foundation resistance are discussed. The sensitivity of the machine foundation to the uncertainties of the soil properties due to longtime rotating movement of machine is not negligible for design engineers. On the example of compressor foundation and turbine fy. SIEMENS AG the affectivity of the probabilistic design methodology was presented. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS simulation method for the analysis of the compressor foundation reliability was used on program ANSYS. The 200 simulations for five load cases were calculated in the real time on PC. The probabilistic analysis gives us more complex information about the soil-foundation-machine interaction as the deterministic analysis.

  13. NK sensitivity of neuroblastoma cells determined by a highly sensitive coupled luminescent method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogbomo, Henry; Hahn, Anke; Geiler, Janina; Michaelis, Martin; Doerr, Hans Wilhelm; Cinatl, Jindrich

    2006-01-01

    The measurement of natural killer (NK) cells toxicity against tumor or virus-infected cells especially in cases with small blood samples requires highly sensitive methods. Here, a coupled luminescent method (CLM) based on glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase release from injured target cells was used to evaluate the cytotoxicity of interleukin-2 activated NK cells against neuroblastoma cell lines. In contrast to most other methods, CLM does not require the pretreatment of target cells with labeling substances which could be toxic or radioactive. The effective killing of tumor cells was achieved by low effector/target ratios ranging from 0.5:1 to 4:1. CLM provides highly sensitive, safe, and fast procedure for measurement of NK cell activity with small blood samples such as those obtained from pediatric patients

  14. Perturbative methods for sensitivity calculation in safety problems of nuclear reactors: state-of-the-art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima, Fernando R.A.; Lira, Carlos A.B.O.; Gandini, Augusto

    1995-01-01

    During the last two decades perturbative methods became an efficient tool to perform sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor safety problems. In this paper, a comparative study taking into account perturbation formalisms (Diferential and Matricial Mthods and generalized Perturbation Theory - GPT) is considered. Then a few number of applications are described to analyze the sensitivity of some functions relavant to thermal hydraulics designs or safety analysis of nuclear reactor cores and steam generators. The behaviours of the nuclear reactor cores and steam generators are simulated, respectively, by the COBRA-IV-I and GEVAP codes. Results of sensitivity calculations have shown a good agreement when compared to those obtained directly by using the mentioned codes. So, a significative computational time safe can be obtained with perturbative methods performing sensitivity analysis in nuclear power plants. (author). 25 refs., 5 tabs

  15. Analytical sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sung Ryung; Yang, Seung Han

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an analytical method is used to perform a sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool. First, an error synthesis model is constructed for evaluating the position volumetric error due to the geometric errors, and then an output variable is defined, such as the magnitude of the position volumetric error. Next, the global sensitivity analysis is executed using an analytical method. Finally, the sensitivity indices are calculated using the quantitative values of the geometric errors

  16. Fast, rugged and sensitive ultra high pressure liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method for analysis of cyanotoxins in raw water and drinking water--First findings of anatoxins, cylindrospermopsins and microcystin variants in Swedish source waters and infiltration ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekar, Heidi; Westerberg, Erik; Bruno, Oscar; Lääne, Ants; Persson, Kenneth M; Sundström, L Fredrik; Thim, Anna-Maria

    2016-01-15

    Freshwater blooms of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) in source waters are generally composed of several different strains with the capability to produce a variety of toxins. The major exposure routes for humans are direct contact with recreational waters and ingestion of drinking water not efficiently treated. The ultra high pressure liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry based analytical method presented here allows simultaneous analysis of 22 cyanotoxins from different toxin groups, including anatoxins, cylindrospermopsins, nodularin and microcystins in raw water and drinking water. The use of reference standards enables correct identification of toxins as well as precision of the quantification and due to matrix effects, recovery correction is required. The multi-toxin group method presented here, does not compromise sensitivity, despite the large number of analytes. The limit of quantification was set to 0.1 μg/L for 75% of the cyanotoxins in drinking water and 0.5 μg/L for all cyanotoxins in raw water, which is compliant with the WHO guidance value for microcystin-LR. The matrix effects experienced during analysis were reasonable for most analytes, considering the large volume injected into the mass spectrometer. The time of analysis, including lysing of cell bound toxins, is less than three hours. Furthermore, the method was tested in Swedish source waters and infiltration ponds resulting in evidence of presence of anatoxin, homo-anatoxin, cylindrospermopsin and several variants of microcystins for the first time in Sweden, proving its usefulness. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker

    2015-01-01

    The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.

  18. Method of signal analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthomier, Charles

    1975-01-01

    A method capable of handling the amplitude and the frequency time laws of a certain kind of geophysical signals is described here. This method is based upon the analytical signal idea of Gabor and Ville, which is constructed either in the time domain by adding an imaginary part to the real signal (in-quadrature signal), or in the frequency domain by suppressing negative frequency components. The instantaneous frequency of the initial signal is then defined as the time derivative of the phase of the analytical signal, and his amplitude, or envelope, as the modulus of this complex signal. The method is applied to three types of magnetospheric signals: chorus, whistlers and pearls. The results obtained by analog and numerical calculations are compared to results obtained by classical systems using filters, i.e. based upon a different definition of the concept of frequency. The precision with which the frequency-time laws are determined leads then to the examination of the principle of the method and to a definition of instantaneous power density spectrum attached to the signal, and to the first consequences of this definition. In this way, a two-dimensional representation of the signal is introduced which is less deformed by the analysis system properties than the usual representation, and which moreover has the advantage of being obtainable practically in real time [fr

  19. B1 -sensitivity analysis of quantitative magnetization transfer imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudreau, Mathieu; Stikov, Nikola; Pike, G Bruce

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the sensitivity of quantitative magnetization transfer (qMT) fitted parameters to B 1 inaccuracies, focusing on the difference between two categories of T 1 mapping techniques: B 1 -independent and B 1 -dependent. The B 1 -sensitivity of qMT was investigated and compared using two T 1 measurement methods: inversion recovery (IR) (B 1 -independent) and variable flip angle (VFA), B 1 -dependent). The study was separated into four stages: 1) numerical simulations, 2) sensitivity analysis of the Z-spectra, 3) healthy subjects at 3T, and 4) comparison using three different B 1 imaging techniques. For typical B 1 variations in the brain at 3T (±30%), the simulations resulted in errors of the pool-size ratio (F) ranging from -3% to 7% for VFA, and -40% to > 100% for IR, agreeing with the Z-spectra sensitivity analysis. In healthy subjects, pooled whole-brain Pearson correlation coefficients for F (comparing measured double angle and nominal flip angle B 1 maps) were ρ = 0.97/0.81 for VFA/IR. This work describes the B 1 -sensitivity characteristics of qMT, demonstrating that it varies substantially on the B 1 -dependency of the T 1 mapping method. Particularly, the pool-size ratio is more robust against B 1 inaccuracies if VFA T 1 mapping is used, so much so that B 1 mapping could be omitted without substantially biasing F. Magn Reson Med 79:276-285, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  20. High sensitive quench detection method using an integrated test wire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fevrier, A.; Tavergnier, J.P.; Nithart, H.; Kiblaire, M.; Duchateau, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A high sensitive quench detection method which works even in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field is reported. The quench signal is obtained from the difference in voltages at the superconducting winding terminals and at the terminals at a secondary winding strongly coupled to the primary. The secondary winding could consist of a ''zero-current strand'' of the superconducting cable not connected to one of the winding terminals or an integrated normal test wire inside the superconducting cable. Experimental results on quench detection obtained by this method are described. It is shown that the integrated test wire method leads to efficient and sensitive quench detection, especially in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field

  1. A fast and sensitive method for the simultaneous analysis of a wide range of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in indoor dust using on-line solid phase extraction-ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-time-of-flight-mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Haug, Line Småstuen

    2016-05-06

    A fast and sensitive method for simultaneous determination of 18 traditional and 6 alternative per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) using solid-liquid extraction (SLE), off-line clean-up using activated carbon and on-line solid phase extraction-ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-time-of-flight-mass spectrometry (on-line SPE-UHPLC-TOF-MS) was developed. The extraction efficiency was studied and recoveries in range the 58-114% were obtained. Extraction and injection volumes were also optimized to 2mL and 400μL, respectively. The method was validated by spiking dust from a vacuum cleaner bag that had been found to contain low levels of the PFASs in focus. Low method detection limits (MDLs) and method quantification limits (MQLs) in the range 0.008-0.846ngg(-1) and 0.027-2.820ngg(-1) were obtained, respectively. For most of the PFASs, the accuracies were between 70 and 125% in the range from 2 to100ngg(-1) dust. Intra-day and inter-day precisions were in general well below 30%. Analysis of a Standard Reference Material (SRM 2585) showed high accordance with results obtained by other laboratories. Finally, the method was applied to seven indoor dust samples, and PFAS concentrations in the range 0.02-132ngg(-1) were found. The highest median concentrations were observed for some of the alternative PFASs, such as 6:2-diPAP (25ngg(-1)), 8:2-diPAP (49ngg(-1)), and PFOPA (23ngg(-1)), illustrating the importance of inclusion of new PFASs in the analytical methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Highly sensitive high resolution Raman spectroscopy using resonant ionization methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owyoung, A.; Esherick, P.

    1984-05-01

    In recent years, the introduction of stimulated Raman methods has offered orders of magnitude improvement in spectral resolving power for gas phase Raman studies. Nevertheless, the inherent weakness of the Raman process suggests the need for significantly more sensitive techniques in Raman spectroscopy. In this we describe a new approach to this problem. Our new technique, which we call ionization-detected stimulated Raman spectroscopy (IDSRS), combines high-resolution SRS with highly-sensitive resonant laser ionization to achieve an increase in sensitivity of over three orders of magnitude. The excitation/detection process involves three sequential steps: (1) population of a vibrationally excited state via stimulated Raman pumping; (2) selective ionization of the vibrationally excited molecule with a tunable uv source; and (3) collection of the ionized species at biased electrodes where they are detected as current in an external circuit

  3. Superconducting Accelerating Cavity Pressure Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodnizki, J.; Horvits, Z.; Ben Aliz, Y.; Grin, A.; Weissman, L.

    2014-01-01

    The measured sensitivity of the cavity was evaluated and it is full consistent with the measured values. It was explored that the tuning system (the fog structure) has a significant contribution to the cavity sensitivity. By using ribs or by modifying the rigidity of the fog we may reduce the HWR sensitivity. During cool down and warming up we have to analyze the stresses on the HWR to avoid plastic deformation to the HWR since the Niobium yield is an order of magnitude lower in room temperature

  4. Method of estimating the sensitivity of a calculated nuclide vector to deviations in initial data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, E.A.

    1998-12-01

    The application of perturbation theory algorithms in modelling of nuclides transmutation is considered. The perturbation theory is used to construct the analytical technique of sensitivity analysis. It is shown that such algorithms have to be used in modelling of lifetime performance of nuclear power installations with the Monte Carlo method. The present approach differs from others by consistent use of analytical methods. (author)

  5. MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-10

    This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

  6. Methods for geochemical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baedecker, Philip A.

    1987-01-01

    The laboratories for analytical chemistry within the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey are administered by the Office of Mineral Resources. The laboratory analysts provide analytical support to those programs of the Geologic Division that require chemical information and conduct basic research in analytical and geochemical areas vital to the furtherance of Division program goals. Laboratories for research and geochemical analysis are maintained at the three major centers in Reston, Virginia, Denver, Colorado, and Menlo Park, California. The Division has an expertise in a broad spectrum of analytical techniques, and the analytical research is designed to advance the state of the art of existing techniques and to develop new methods of analysis in response to special problems in geochemical analysis. The geochemical research and analytical results are applied to the solution of fundamental geochemical problems relating to the origin of mineral deposits and fossil fuels, as well as to studies relating to the distribution of elements in varied geologic systems, the mechanisms by which they are transported, and their impact on the environment.

  7. Prediction of skin sensitizers using alternative methods to animal experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik; Lindstedt, Malin

    2014-07-01

    Regulatory frameworks within the European Union demand that chemical substances are investigated for their ability to induce sensitization, an adverse health effect caused by the human immune system in response to chemical exposure. A recent ban on the use of animal tests within the cosmetics industry has led to an urgent need for alternative animal-free test methods that can be used for assessment of chemical sensitizers. To date, no such alternative assay has yet completed formal validation. However, a number of assays are in development and the understanding of the biological mechanisms of chemical sensitization has greatly increased during the last decade. In this MiniReview, we aim to summarize and give our view on the recent progress of method development for alternative assessment of chemical sensitizers. We propose that integrated testing strategies should comprise complementary assays, providing measurements of a wide range of mechanistic events, to perform well-educated risk assessments based on weight of evidence. © 2014 Nordic Association for the Publication of BCPT (former Nordic Pharmacological Society).

  8. Probability density adjoint for sensitivity analysis of the Mean of Chaos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blonigan, Patrick J., E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu; Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis, especially adjoint based sensitivity analysis, is a powerful tool for engineering design which allows for the efficient computation of sensitivities with respect to many parameters. However, these methods break down when used to compute sensitivities of long-time averaged quantities in chaotic dynamical systems. This paper presents a new method for sensitivity analysis of ergodic chaotic dynamical systems, the density adjoint method. The method involves solving the governing equations for the system's invariant measure and its adjoint on the system's attractor manifold rather than in phase-space. This new approach is derived for and demonstrated on one-dimensional chaotic maps and the three-dimensional Lorenz system. It is found that the density adjoint computes very finely detailed adjoint distributions and accurate sensitivities, but suffers from large computational costs.

  9. COMPUTER METHODS OF GENETIC ANALYSIS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Osipov

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The basic statistical methods used in conducting the genetic analysis of human traits. We studied by segregation analysis, linkage analysis and allelic associations. Developed software for the implementation of these methods support.

  10. Variance-based sensitivity analysis for wastewater treatment plant modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Neumann, Marc B

    2014-02-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models that characterise technical or natural systems. In the field of wastewater modelling, most of the recent applications of GSA use either regression-based methods, which require close to linear relationships between the model outputs and model factors, or screening methods, which only yield qualitative results. However, due to the characteristics of membrane bioreactors (MBR) (non-linear kinetics, complexity, etc.) there is an interest to adequately quantify the effects of non-linearity and interactions. This can be achieved with variance-based sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST) method is applied to an integrated activated sludge model (ASM2d) for an MBR system including microbial product formation and physical separation processes. Twenty-one model outputs located throughout the different sections of the bioreactor and 79 model factors are considered. Significant interactions among the model factors are found. Contrary to previous GSA studies for ASM models, we find the relationship between variables and factors to be non-linear and non-additive. By analysing the pattern of the variance decomposition along the plant, the model factors having the highest variance contributions were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of variance-based methods in membrane bioreactor modelling where, due to the presence of membranes and different operating conditions than those typically found in conventional activated sludge systems, several highly non-linear effects are present. Further, the obtained results highlight the relevant role played by the modelling approach for MBR taking into account simultaneously biological and physical processes. © 2013.

  11. Emissivity compensated spectral pyrometry—algorithm and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagqvist, Petter; Sikström, Fredrik; Christiansson, Anna-Karin; Lennartson, Bengt

    2014-01-01

    In order to solve the problem of non-contact temperature measurements on an object with varying emissivity, a new method is herein described and evaluated. The method uses spectral radiance measurements and converts them to temperature readings. It proves to be resilient towards changes in spectral emissivity and tolerates noisy spectral measurements. It is based on an assumption of smooth changes in emissivity and uses historical values of spectral emissivity and temperature for estimating current spectral emissivity. The algorithm, its constituent steps and accompanying parameters are described and discussed. A thorough sensitivity analysis of the method is carried out through simulations. No rigorous instrument calibration is needed for the presented method and it is therefore industrially tractable. (paper)

  12. High order effects in cross section sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenspan, E.; Karni, Y.; Gilai, D.

    1978-01-01

    Two types of high order effects associated with perturbations in the flux shape are considered: Spectral Fine Structure Effects (SFSE) and non-linearity between changes in performance parameters and data uncertainties. SFSE are investigated in Part I using a simple single resonance model. Results obtained for each of the resolved and for representative unresolved resonances of 238 U in a ZPR-6/7 like environment indicate that SFSE can have a significant contribution to the sensitivity of group constants to resonance parameters. Methods to account for SFSE both for the propagation of uncertainties and for the adjustment of nuclear data are discussed. A Second Order Sensitivity Theory (SOST) is presented, and its accuracy relative to that of the first order sensitivity theory and of the direct substitution method is investigated in Part II. The investigation is done for the non-linear problem of the effect of changes in the 297 keV sodium minimum cross section on the transport of neutrons in a deep-penetration problem. It is found that the SOST provides a satisfactory accuracy for cross section uncertainty analysis. For the same degree of accuracy, the SOST can be significantly more efficient than the direct substitution method

  13. Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data

  14. Computing eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients to nuclear data based on the CLUTCH method with RMC code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Yishu; She, Ding; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Kan; Liang, Jingang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new algorithm is proposed to reduce memory consumption for sensitivity analysis. • The fission matrix method is used to generate adjoint fission source distributions. • Sensitivity analysis is performed on a detailed 3D full-core benchmark with RMC. - Abstract: Recently, there is a need to develop advanced methods of computing eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients to nuclear data in the continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes. One of these methods is the iterated fission probability (IFP) method, which is adopted by most of Monte Carlo codes of having the capabilities of computing sensitivity coefficients, including the Reactor Monte Carlo code RMC. Though it is accurate theoretically, the IFP method faces the challenge of huge memory consumption. Therefore, it may sometimes produce poor sensitivity coefficients since the number of particles in each active cycle is not sufficient enough due to the limitation of computer memory capacity. In this work, two algorithms of the Contribution-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method, namely, the collision-event-based algorithm (C-CLUTCH) which is also implemented in SCALE and the fission-event-based algorithm (F-CLUTCH) which is put forward in this work, are investigated and implemented in RMC to reduce memory requirements for computing eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients. While the C-CLUTCH algorithm requires to store concerning reaction rates of every collision, the F-CLUTCH algorithm only stores concerning reaction rates of every fission point. In addition, the fission matrix method is put forward to generate the adjoint fission source distribution for the CLUTCH method to compute sensitivity coefficients. These newly proposed approaches implemented in RMC code are verified by a SF96 lattice model and the MIT BEAVRS benchmark problem. The numerical results indicate the accuracy of the F-CLUTCH algorithm is the same as the C

  15. An evaluation of a single-step extraction chromatography separation method for Sm-Nd isotope analysis of micro-samples of silicate rocks by high-sensitivity thermal ionization mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Chaofeng; Li Xianhua; Li Qiuli; Guo Jinghui; Li Xianghui; Liu Tao

    2011-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Distribution curve of all eluting fractions for a BCR-2 (1-2-3.5-7 mg) on LN column using HCl and HF as eluting reagent. Highlights: → This analytical protocol affords a simple and rapid analysis for Sm and Nd isotope in minor rock samples. → The single-step separation method exhibits satisfactory separation effect for complex silicate samples. → Corrected 143 Nd/ 144 Nd data show excellent accuracy even if the 140 Ce 16 O + / 144 Nd 16 O + ratio reached to 0.03. - Abstract: A single-step separation scheme is presented for Sm-Nd radiogenic isotope system on very small samples (1-3 mg) of silicate rock. This method is based on Eichrom LN Spec chromatographic material and affords a straightforward separation of Sm-Nd from complex matrix with good purity and satisfactory blank levels, suitable for thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS). This technique, characterized by high efficiency (single-step Sm-Nd separation) and high sensitivity (TIMS on NdO + ion beam), is able to process rapidly (3-4 h), with low procedure blanks ( 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios and Sm-Nd concentrations are presented for eleven international silicate rock reference materials, spanning a wide range of Sm-Nd contents and bulk compositions. The analytical results show a good agreement with recommended values within ±0.004% for the 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotopic ratio and ±2% for Sm-Nd quantification at the 95% confidence level. It is noted that the uncertainty of this method is about 3 times larger than typical precision achievable with two-stage full separation followed by state-of-the-art conventional TIMS using Nd + ion beams which require much larger amounts of Nd. Hence, our single-step separation followed by NdO + ion beam technique is preferred to the analysis for microsamples.

  16. Sensitivity evaluation of dynamic speckle activity measurements using clustering methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etchepareborda, Pablo; Federico, Alejandro; Kaufmann, Guillermo H.

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate and compare the use of competitive neural networks, self-organizing maps, the expectation-maximization algorithm, K-means, and fuzzy C-means techniques as partitional clustering methods, when the sensitivity of the activity measurement of dynamic speckle images needs to be improved. The temporal history of the acquired intensity generated by each pixel is analyzed in a wavelet decomposition framework, and it is shown that the mean energy of its corresponding wavelet coefficients provides a suited feature space for clustering purposes. The sensitivity obtained by using the evaluated clustering techniques is also compared with the well-known methods of Konishi-Fujii, weighted generalized differences, and wavelet entropy. The performance of the partitional clustering approach is evaluated using simulated dynamic speckle patterns and also experimental data.

  17. Drop weight impact measurements of HE sensitivity: modified detection methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preston, D N; Brown, G W; Tappan, B C; Oshwald, D M; Koby, J R; Schoonover, M L

    2014-01-01

    High explosives small-scale sensitivity testing has been a hallmark of safety screening since WWII. Sensitivity testing was once crude and simple; broom sticks were used to scrape explosives on the floor while experimenters would look, listen, and smell for signs of a reaction. Since then, a wide variety of testing apparatus have been developed to explore the effects of different stimuli on explosives. In concert with the development of the machines themselves, the reaction detection methods have also evolved. This paper's focus is on the Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) drop weight impact machine and reaction detection methods. A critical evaluation of results is presented with cautionary examples of false positives that can occur with non-explosive materials.

  18. The delayed neutron method of uranium analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, T.

    1989-01-01

    The technique of delayed neutron analysis (DNA) is discussed. The DNA rig installed on the MOATA reactor, the assay standards and the types of samples which have been assayed are described. Of the total sample throughput of about 55,000 units since the uranium analysis service began, some 78% has been concerned with analysis of uranium ore samples derived from mining and exploration. Delayed neutron analysis provides a high sensitivity, low cost uranium analysis method for both uranium exploration and other applications. It is particularly suitable for analysis of large batch samples and for non-destructive analysis over a wide range of matrices. 8 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  19. A sensitive new method of ex vivo platelet deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badimon, L.; Fuster, V.; Dewanjee, M.K.; Romero, J.C.

    1982-01-01

    In 1978, an in vivo quantitative method of platelet aggregation based on the increment of weight of a rabbit tendon when superfused with flowing blood (3 ml/min) derived from a carotid artery of a cat and reentering the contralateral jugular vein was reported. TO increase the sensitivity of the method, researches labeled platelets with indium-111 and reinjected them after two hours; then, with a gamma counter, researches quantitated the 111 In-labeled platelets deposited on the superfused rabbit tendon. Results of the radioactivity method and of the weight method were compared. Researchers found that the 111 In-labeling of platelets was more precise and reproducible method, rendering possible the use of a small amount of blood without need for reentry into the venous system

  20. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beng-Chun Lee

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the nuclear fuel thermal behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulore, A., E-mail: antoine.boulore@cea.fr [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Struzik, C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Gaudier, F. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Systems and Structure Modeling Department, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A complete quantitative method for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2} is modeled as a random variable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The first source of uncertainty is the linear heat rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The second source of uncertainty is the thermal conductivity of the fuel. - Abstract: In the global framework of nuclear fuel behavior simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. Amongst all parameters influencing the temperature calculation in our fuel rod simulation code (METEOR V2), several sources of uncertainty have been identified as being the most sensitive: thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2}, radial distribution of power in the fuel pellet, local linear heat rate in the fuel rod, geometry of the pellet and thermal transfer in the gap. Expert judgment and inverse methods have been used to model the uncertainty of these parameters using theoretical distributions and correlation matrices. Propagation of these uncertainties in the METEOR V2 code using the URANIE framework and a Monte-Carlo technique has been performed in different experimental irradiations of UO{sub 2} fuel. At every time step of the simulated experiments, we get a temperature statistical distribution which results from the initial distributions of the uncertain parameters. We then can estimate confidence intervals of the calculated temperature. In order to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated temperature to each of the uncertain input parameters and data, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using the Sobol' indices at first order.

  2. Capillary Electrophoresis Sensitivity Enhancement Based on Adaptive Moving Average Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drevinskas, Tomas; Telksnys, Laimutis; Maruška, Audrius; Gorbatsova, Jelena; Kaljurand, Mihkel

    2018-06-05

    In the present work, we demonstrate a novel approach to improve the sensitivity of the "out of lab" portable capillary electrophoretic measurements. Nowadays, many signal enhancement methods are (i) underused (nonoptimal), (ii) overused (distorts the data), or (iii) inapplicable in field-portable instrumentation because of a lack of computational power. The described innovative migration velocity-adaptive moving average method uses an optimal averaging window size and can be easily implemented with a microcontroller. The contactless conductivity detection was used as a model for the development of a signal processing method and the demonstration of its impact on the sensitivity. The frequency characteristics of the recorded electropherograms and peaks were clarified. Higher electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit higher-frequency peaks, whereas lower electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit lower-frequency peaks. On the basis of the obtained data, a migration velocity-adaptive moving average algorithm was created, adapted, and programmed into capillary electrophoresis data-processing software. Employing the developed algorithm, each data point is processed depending on a certain migration time of the analyte. Because of the implemented migration velocity-adaptive moving average method, the signal-to-noise ratio improved up to 11 times for sampling frequency of 4.6 Hz and up to 22 times for sampling frequency of 25 Hz. This paper could potentially be used as a methodological guideline for the development of new smoothing algorithms that require adaptive conditions in capillary electrophoresis and other separation methods.

  3. Procedures for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in repository performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.

    1985-10-01

    The objective of the project was mainly a literature study of available methods for the treatment of parameter uncertainty propagation and sensitivity aspects in complete models such as those concerning geologic disposal of radioactive waste. The study, which has run parallel with the development of a code package (PROPER) for computer assisted analysis of function, also aims at the choice of accurate, cost-affective methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Such a choice depends on several factors like the number of input parameters, the capacity of the model and the computer reresources required to use the model. Two basic approaches are addressed in the report. In one of these the model of interest is directly simulated by an efficient sampling technique to generate an output distribution. Applying the other basic method the model is replaced by an approximating analytical response surface, which is then used in the sampling phase or in moment matching to generate the output distribution. Both approaches are illustrated by simple examples in the report. (author)

  4. NPV Sensitivity Analysis: A Dynamic Excel Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiero, George A.; Kraten, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Financial analysts generally create static formulas for the computation of NPV. When they do so, however, it is not readily apparent how sensitive the value of NPV is to changes in multiple interdependent and interrelated variables. It is the aim of this paper to analyze this variability by employing a dynamic, visually graphic presentation using…

  5. Personalization of models with many model parameters : an efficient sensitivity analysis approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, W.P.; Huberts, W.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Delhaas, T.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of

  6. SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

    2008-08-15

    It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.

  7. Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

    2017-11-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

  8. Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

    2014-12-01

    Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

  9. The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

    1987-01-01

    The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)

  10. A new sensitive method for detecting human endogenous (leukocyte) pyrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodel, P; Miller, H

    1978-03-01

    Endogenous, or leukocyte pyrogen (EP), the mediator of fever, is currently detected by injection of pyrogen-containing supernatants into rabbits. This assay has been of little value in the study of human fever because it required injection of relatively large amounts of pyrogen. We now report that injection of medium containing human EP produces fever in mice. Supernatant from 1 c 10(5) granulocytes, stimulated by phagocytosis of staphylococci and incubated overnight, or 1 x 10(4) monocytes similarly treated, produce clear pyrogenic responses. This method for detecting EP is about 100-fold more sensitive than the rabbit assay, and it appears to be specific for EP. Preliminary studies of EP released by small samples of needle liver biopsies from febrile and afebrile patients suggests that this sensitive assay may be useful for investigations into the mechanisms of clinical fever.

  11. Automated sensitivity analysis using the GRESS language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.

    1986-04-01

    An automated procedure for performing large-scale sensitivity studies based on the use of computer calculus is presented. The procedure is embodied in a FORTRAN precompiler called GRESS, which automatically processes computer models and adds derivative-taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. In this report, the GRESS code is described, tested against analytic and numerical test problems, and then applied to a major geohydrological modeling problem. The SWENT nuclear waste repository modeling code is used as the basis for these studies. Results for all problems are discussed in detail. Conclusions are drawn as to the applicability of GRESS in the problems at hand and for more general large-scale modeling sensitivity studies

  12. Development and validation of a sensitive UHPLC-MS/MS method for the simultaneous analysis of tramadol, dextromethorphan chlorpheniramine and their major metabolites in human plasma in forensic context: application to pharmacokinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heneedak, Hala M; Salama, Ismail; Mostafa, Samia; El-Kady, Ehab; El-Sadek, Mohamed

    2015-07-01

    The prerequisites for forensic confirmatory analysis by LC/MS/MS with respect to European Union guidelines are chromatographic separation, a minimum number of two MS/MS transitions to obtain the required identification points and predefined thresholds for the variability of the relative intensities of the MS/MS transitions (MRM transitions) in samples and reference standards. In the present study, a fast, sensitive and robust method to quantify tramadol, chlorpheniramine, dextromethorphan and their major metabolites, O-desmethyltramadol, dsmethyl-chlorpheniramine and dextrophan, respectively, in human plasma using ibuprofen as internal standard (IS) is described. The analytes and the IS were extracted from plasma by a liquid-liquid extraction method using ethyl acetate-diethyl-ether (1:1). Extracted samples were analyzed by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-ESI-MS/MS). Chromatographic separation was performed by pumping the mobile phase containing acetonitrile, water and formic acid (89.2:11.7:0.1) for 2.0 min at a flow rate of 0.25 μL/min into a Hypersil-Gold C18 column, 20 × 2.0 mm (1.9 µm) from Thermoscientific, New York, USA. The calibration curve was linear for the six analytes. The intraday precision (RSD) and accuracy (RE) of the method were 3-9.8 and -1.7-4.5%, respectively. The analytical procedure herein described was used to assess the pharmacokinetics of the analytes in 24 healthy volunteers after a single oral dose containing 50 mg of tramadol hydrochloride, 3 mg chlorpheniramine maleate and 15 mg of dextromethorphan hydrobromide. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Sensitivity analysis for publication bias in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies for a continuous biomarker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2018-02-10

    Publication bias is one of the most important issues in meta-analysis. For standard meta-analyses to examine intervention effects, the funnel plot and the trim-and-fill method are simple and widely used techniques for assessing and adjusting for the influence of publication bias, respectively. However, their use may be subjective and can then produce misleading insights. To make a more objective inference for publication bias, various sensitivity analysis methods have been proposed, including the Copas selection model. For meta-analysis of diagnostic studies evaluating a continuous biomarker, the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve is a very useful method in the presence of heterogeneous cutoff values. To our best knowledge, no methods are available for evaluation of influence of publication bias on estimation of the sROC curve. In this paper, we introduce a Copas-type selection model for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies and propose a sensitivity analysis method for publication bias. Our method enables us to assess the influence of publication bias on the estimation of the sROC curve and then judge whether the result of the meta-analysis is sufficiently confident or should be interpreted with much caution. We illustrate our proposed method with real data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Deterministic sensitivity analysis for the numerical simulation of contaminants transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchand, E.

    2007-12-01

    The questions of safety and uncertainty are central to feasibility studies for an underground nuclear waste storage site, in particular the evaluation of uncertainties about safety indicators which are due to uncertainties concerning properties of the subsoil or of the contaminants. The global approach through probabilistic Monte Carlo methods gives good results, but it requires a large number of simulations. The deterministic method investigated here is complementary. Based on the Singular Value Decomposition of the derivative of the model, it gives only local information, but it is much less demanding in computing time. The flow model follows Darcy's law and the transport of radionuclides around the storage site follows a linear convection-diffusion equation. Manual and automatic differentiation are compared for these models using direct and adjoint modes. A comparative study of both probabilistic and deterministic approaches for the sensitivity analysis of fluxes of contaminants through outlet channels with respect to variations of input parameters is carried out with realistic data provided by ANDRA. Generic tools for sensitivity analysis and code coupling are developed in the Caml language. The user of these generic platforms has only to provide the specific part of the application in any language of his choice. We also present a study about two-phase air/water partially saturated flows in hydrogeology concerning the limitations of the Richards approximation and of the global pressure formulation used in petroleum engineering. (author)

  15. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  16. Methods of nonlinear analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bellman, Richard Ernest

    1970-01-01

    In this book, we study theoretical and practical aspects of computing methods for mathematical modelling of nonlinear systems. A number of computing techniques are considered, such as methods of operator approximation with any given accuracy; operator interpolation techniques including a non-Lagrange interpolation; methods of system representation subject to constraints associated with concepts of causality, memory and stationarity; methods of system representation with an accuracy that is the best within a given class of models; methods of covariance matrix estimation;methods for low-rank mat

  17. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  18. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  19. A simple in chemico method for testing skin sensitizing potential of chemicals using small endogenous molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepal, Mahesh Raj; Shakya, Rajina; Kang, Mi Jeong; Jeong, Tae Cheon

    2018-06-01

    Among many of the validated methods for testing skin sensitization, direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA) employs no cells or animals. Although no immune cells are involved in this assay, it reliably predicts the skin sensitization potential of a chemical in chemico. Herein, a new method was developed using endogenous small-molecular-weight compounds, cysteamine and glutathione, rather than synthetic peptides, to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers with an accuracy as high as DPRA. The percent depletion of cysteamine and glutathione by test chemicals was measured by an HPLC equipped with a PDA detector. To detect small-size molecules, such as cysteamine and glutathione, a derivatization by 4-(4-dimethylaminophenylazo) benzenesulfonyl chloride (DABS-Cl) was employed prior to the HPLC analysis. Following test method optimization, a cut-off criterion of 7.14% depletion was applied to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers in combination of the ratio of 1:25 for cysteamine:test chemical with 1:50 for glutathione:test chemical for the best predictivity among various single or combination conditions. Although overlapping HPLC peaks could not be fully resolved for some test chemicals, high levels of sensitivity (100.0%), specificity (81.8%), and accuracy (93.3%) were obtained for 30 chemicals tested, which were comparable or better than those achieved with DPRA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

    2015-01-01

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM

  1. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM.

  2. Rules of Thumb for Depth of Investigation, Pseudo-Position and Resolution of the Electrical Resistivity Method from Analysis of the Moments of the Sensitivity Function for a Homogeneous Half-Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, S. L.

    2017-12-01

    The electrical resistivity method is now highly developed with 2D and even 3D surveys routinely performed and with available fast inversion software. However, rules of thumb, based on simple mathematical formulas, for important quantities like depth of investigation, horizontal position and resolution have not previously been available and would be useful for survey planning, preliminary interpretation and general education about the method. In this contribution, I will show that the sensitivity function for the resistivity method for a homogeneous half-space can be analyzed in terms of its first and second moments which yield simple mathematical formulas. The first moment gives the sensitivity-weighted center of an apparent resistivity measurement with the vertical center being an estimate of the depth of investigation. I will show that this depth of investigation estimate works at least as well as previous estimates based on the peak and median of the depth sensitivity function which must be calculated numerically for a general four electrode array. The vertical and horizontal first moments can also be used as pseudopositions when plotting 1, 2 and 3D pseudosections. The appropriate horizontal plotting point for a pseudosection was not previously obvious for nonsymmetric arrays. The second moments of the sensitivity function give estimates of the spatial extent of the region contributing to an apparent resistivity measurement and hence are measures of the resolution. These also have simple mathematical formulas.

  3. Robust and sensitive analysis of mouse knockout phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha A Karp

    Full Text Available A significant challenge of in-vivo studies is the identification of phenotypes with a method that is robust and reliable. The challenge arises from practical issues that lead to experimental designs which are not ideal. Breeding issues, particularly in the presence of fertility or fecundity problems, frequently lead to data being collected in multiple batches. This problem is acute in high throughput phenotyping programs. In addition, in a high throughput environment operational issues lead to controls not being measured on the same day as knockouts. We highlight how application of traditional methods, such as a Student's t-Test or a 2-way ANOVA, in these situations give flawed results and should not be used. We explore the use of mixed models using worked examples from Sanger Mouse Genome Project focusing on Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry data for the analysis of mouse knockout data and compare to a reference range approach. We show that mixed model analysis is more sensitive and less prone to artefacts allowing the discovery of subtle quantitative phenotypes essential for correlating a gene's function to human disease. We demonstrate how a mixed model approach has the additional advantage of being able to include covariates, such as body weight, to separate effect of genotype from these covariates. This is a particular issue in knockout studies, where body weight is a common phenotype and will enhance the precision of assigning phenotypes and the subsequent selection of lines for secondary phenotyping. The use of mixed models with in-vivo studies has value not only in improving the quality and sensitivity of the data analysis but also ethically as a method suitable for small batches which reduces the breeding burden of a colony. This will reduce the use of animals, increase throughput, and decrease cost whilst improving the quality and depth of knowledge gained.

  4. Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

    2018-04-01

    There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

  5. Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

    1986-01-01

    An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies

  6. Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis in metabolic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiparissides, A; Hatzimanikatis, V

    2017-01-01

    The increasing availability of large metabolomics datasets enhances the need for computational methodologies that can organize the data in a way that can lead to the inference of meaningful relationships. Knowledge of the metabolic state of a cell and how it responds to various stimuli and extracellular conditions can offer significant insight in the regulatory functions and how to manipulate them. Constraint based methods, such as Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) and Thermodynamics-based flux analysis (TFA), are commonly used to estimate the flow of metabolites through genome-wide metabolic networks, making it possible to identify the ranges of flux values that are consistent with the studied physiological and thermodynamic conditions. However, unless key intracellular fluxes and metabolite concentrations are known, constraint-based models lead to underdetermined problem formulations. This lack of information propagates as uncertainty in the estimation of fluxes and basic reaction properties such as the determination of reaction directionalities. Therefore, knowledge of which metabolites, if measured, would contribute the most to reducing this uncertainty can significantly improve our ability to define the internal state of the cell. In the present work we combine constraint based modeling, Design of Experiments (DoE) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) into the Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis (TMSA) method. TMSA ranks metabolites comprising a metabolic network based on their ability to constrain the gamut of possible solutions to a limited, thermodynamically consistent set of internal states. TMSA is modular and can be applied to a single reaction, a metabolic pathway or an entire metabolic network. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to use metabolic modeling in order to provide a significance ranking of metabolites to guide experimental measurements. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier

  7. A sensitive new microculture method for diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdiyev, Adil M; Uzun, Soner; Bagirova, Malahat; Durdu, Murat; Memisoglu, Hamdi R

    2004-03-01

    A sensitive microcapillary culture method (MCM) was developed for rapid diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). The MCM is superior to the traditional culture method (TCM) as determined by the smaller inoculum size, the higher sensitivity for detection of promastigotes, and the more rapid time for emergence of promastigotes. With lesion amastigote loads from grade III to 0, the positive rates and the periods for promastigote emergence were 3-4-fold higher and faster with the MCM than with the TCM, e.g., 83-97% positive in 4-7 days versus 20-40% positive in 15-30 days (P = 0.0001). The higher Pco(2) and lower Po(2) and pH presumably encourage a rapid amastigote-to-promastigote differentiation and/or the survival or growth of the latter. This MCM has the advantage of simplicity, and may be suitable for diagnostic use and for parasite retrieval in many other endemic sites where parasites are known to be difficult to grow.

  8. Sensitivity Analysis for Steady State Groundwater Flow Using Adjoint Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, J. F.; Wilson, J. L.; Andrews, R. W.

    1985-03-01

    Adjoint sensitivity theory is currently being considered as a potential method for calculating the sensitivity of nuclear waste repository performance measures to the parameters of the system. For groundwater flow systems, performance measures of interest include piezometric heads in the vicinity of a waste site, velocities or travel time in aquifers, and mass discharge to biosphere points. The parameters include recharge-discharge rates, prescribed boundary heads or fluxes, formation thicknesses, and hydraulic conductivities. The derivative of a performance measure with respect to the system parameters is usually taken as a measure of sensitivity. To calculate sensitivities, adjoint sensitivity equations are formulated from the equations describing the primary problem. The solution of the primary problem and the adjoint sensitivity problem enables the determination of all of the required derivatives and hence related sensitivity coefficients. In this study, adjoint sensitivity theory is developed for equations of two-dimensional steady state flow in a confined aquifer. Both the primary flow equation and the adjoint sensitivity equation are solved using the Galerkin finite element method. The developed computer code is used to investigate the regional flow parameters of the Leadville Formation of the Paradox Basin in Utah. The results illustrate the sensitivity of calculated local heads to the boundary conditions. Alternatively, local velocity related performance measures are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivities.

  9. First order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems using absolute nodal coordinate formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pi Ting; Zhang Yunqing; Chen Liping

    2012-01-01

    Design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems is important in optimizing the performance of mechanical systems. The choice of coordinates to describe the motion of multibody systems has a great influence on the efficiency and accuracy of both the dynamic and sensitivity analysis. In the flexible multibody system dynamics, both the floating frame of reference formulation (FFRF) and absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) are frequently utilized to describe flexibility, however, only the former has been used in design sensitivity analysis. In this article, ANCF, which has been recently developed and focuses on modeling of beams and plates in large deformation problems, is extended into design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems. The Motion equations of a constrained flexible multibody system are expressed as a set of index-3 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), in which the element elastic forces are defined using nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Both the direct differentiation method and adjoint variable method are performed to do sensitivity analysis and the related dynamic and sensitivity equations are integrated with HHT-I3 algorithm. In this paper, a new method to deduce system sensitivity equations is proposed. With this approach, the system sensitivity equations are constructed by assembling the element sensitivity equations with the help of invariant matrices, which results in the advantage that the complex symbolic differentiation of the dynamic equations is avoided when the flexible multibody system model is changed. Besides that, the dynamic and sensitivity equations formed with the proposed method can be efficiently integrated using HHT-I3 method, which makes the efficiency of the direct differentiation method comparable to that of the adjoint variable method when the number of design variables is not extremely large. All these improvements greatly enhance the application value of the direct differentiation

  10. Sensitivity analysis techniques applied to a system of hyperbolic conservation laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weirs, V. Gregory; Kamm, James R.; Swiler, Laura P.; Tarantola, Stefano; Ratto, Marco; Adams, Brian M.; Rider, William J.; Eldred, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is comprised of techniques to quantify the effects of the input variables on a set of outputs. In particular, sensitivity indices can be used to infer which input parameters most significantly affect the results of a computational model. With continually increasing computing power, sensitivity analysis has become an important technique by which to understand the behavior of large-scale computer simulations. Many sensitivity analysis methods rely on sampling from distributions of the inputs. Such sampling-based methods can be computationally expensive, requiring many evaluations of the simulation; in this case, the Sobol' method provides an easy and accurate way to compute variance-based measures, provided a sufficient number of model evaluations are available. As an alternative, meta-modeling approaches have been devised to approximate the response surface and estimate various measures of sensitivity. In this work, we consider a variety of sensitivity analysis methods, including different sampling strategies, different meta-models, and different ways of evaluating variance-based sensitivity indices. The problem we consider is the 1-D Riemann problem. By a careful choice of inputs, discontinuous solutions are obtained, leading to discontinuous response surfaces; such surfaces can be particularly problematic for meta-modeling approaches. The goal of this study is to compare the estimated sensitivity indices with exact values and to evaluate the convergence of these estimates with increasing samples sizes and under an increasing number of meta-model evaluations. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity analysis techniques for a model shock physics problem are compared. ► The model problem and the sensitivity analysis problem have exact solutions. ► Subtle details of the method for computing sensitivity indices can affect the results.

  11. Justification of investment projects of biogas systems by the sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perebijnos Vasilij Ivanovich

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Methodical features of sensitivity analysis application for evaluation of biogas plants investment projects are shown in the article. Risk factors of the indicated investment projects have been studied. Methodical basis for the use of sensitivity analysis and calculation of elasticity coefficient has been worked out. Calculation of sensitivity analysis and elasticity coefficient of three biogas plants projects, which differ in direction of biogas transformation: use in co-generation plant, application of biomethane as motor fuel and resulting carbon dioxide as marketable product, has been made. Factors strongly affecting projects efficiency have been revealed.

  12. Dynamic pressure sensitivity determination with Mach number method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarraf, Christophe; Damion, Jean-Pierre

    2018-05-01

    Measurements of pressure in fast transient conditions are often performed even if the dynamic characteristic of the transducer are not traceable to international standards. Moreover, the question of a primary standard in dynamic pressure is still open, especially for gaseous applications. The question is to improve dynamic standards in order to respond to expressed industrial needs. In this paper, the method proposed in the EMRP IND09 ‘Dynamic’ project, which can be called the ‘ideal shock tube method’, is compared with the ‘collective standard method’ currently used in the Laboratoire de Métrologie Dynamique (LNE/ENSAM). The input is a step of pressure generated by a shock tube. The transducer is a piezoelectric pressure sensor. With the ‘ideal shock tube method’ the sensitivity of a pressure sensor is first determined dynamically. This method requires a shock tube implemented with piezoelectric shock wave detectors. The measurement of the Mach number in the tube allows an evaluation of the incident pressure amplitude of a step using a theoretical 1D model of the shock tube. Heat transfer, other actual effects and effects of the shock tube imperfections are not taken into account. The amplitude of the pressure step is then used to determine the sensitivity in dynamic conditions. The second method uses a frequency bandwidth comparison to determine pressure at frequencies from quasi-static conditions, traceable to static pressure standards, to higher frequencies (up to 10 kHz). The measurand is also a step of pressure generated by a supposed ideal shock tube or a fast-opening device. The results are provided as a transfer function with an uncertainty budget assigned to a frequency range, also deliverable frequency by frequency. The largest uncertainty in the bandwidth of comparison is used to trace the final pressure step level measured in dynamic conditions, owing that this pressure is not measurable in a steady state on a shock tube. A reference

  13. Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongsheng Hang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.

  14. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  15. The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice

  16. Cross-covariance based global dynamic sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Zhao; Wu, Mengmeng

    2018-02-01

    For identifying the cross-covariance source of dynamic output at each time instant for structural system involving both input random variables and stochastic processes, a global dynamic sensitivity (GDS) technique is proposed. The GDS considers the effect of time history inputs on the dynamic output. In the GDS, the cross-covariance decomposition is firstly developed to measure the contribution of the inputs to the output at different time instant, and an integration of the cross-covariance change over the specific time interval is employed to measure the whole contribution of the input to the cross-covariance of output. Then, the GDS main effect indices and the GDS total effect indices can be easily defined after the integration, and they are effective in identifying the important inputs and the non-influential inputs on the cross-covariance of output at each time instant, respectively. The established GDS analysis model has the same form with the classical ANOVA when it degenerates to the static case. After degeneration, the first order partial effect can reflect the individual effects of inputs to the output variance, and the second order partial effect can reflect the interaction effects to the output variance, which illustrates the consistency of the proposed GDS indices and the classical variance-based sensitivity indices. The MCS procedure and the Kriging surrogate method are developed to solve the proposed GDS indices. Several examples are introduced to illustrate the significance of the proposed GDS analysis technique and the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

  17. Control strategies and sensitivity analysis of anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamir, Muhammad; Zaman, Gul; Alshomrani, Ali Saleh

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a mathematical model of Anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis epidemic with saturated infection rate and recommends different control strategies to manage the spread of this disease in the community. To do this, first, a model formulation is presented to support these strategies, with quantifications of transmission and intervention parameters. To understand the nature of the initial transmission of the disease, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained by using the next-generation method. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], four different control strategies are proposed for managing disease transmission. For quantification of the prevalence period of the disease, a numerical simulation for each strategy is performed and a detailed summary is presented. Disease-free state is obtained with the help of control strategies. The threshold condition for globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free state is found, and it is ascertained that the state is globally stable. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated by using the proposed strategies.

  18. Analysis of Sensitivity Experiments - An Expanded Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-08

    conducted with this purpose in mind. Due diligence must be paid to the structure of the dosage levels and to the number of trials. The chosen data...analysis. System reliability is of paramount importance for protecting both the investment of funding and human life . Failing to accurately estimate

  19. Sensitivity analysis of hybrid thermoelastic techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.A. Samad; J.M. Considine

    2017-01-01

    Stress functions have been used as a complementary tool to support experimental techniques, such as thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) and digital image correlation (DIC), in an effort to evaluate the complete and separate full-field stresses of loaded structures. The need for such coupling between experimental data and stress functions is due to the fact that...

  20. Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

    1985-01-01

    An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs

  1. Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander

    2018-01-25

    Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.

  2. The sensitivity analysis of population projections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caswell, H.; Sánchez Gassen, N.

    2015-01-01

    Background Population projections using the cohort component method can be written as time-varying matrix population models. The matrices are parameterized by schedules of mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration over the duration of the projection. A variety of dependent variables are

  3. DDASAC, Double-Precision Differential or Algebraic Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.; Petzold, L.

    1997-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DDASAC solves nonlinear initial-value problems involving stiff implicit systems of ordinary differential and algebraic equations. Purely algebraic nonlinear systems can also be solved, given an initial guess within the region of attraction of a solution. Options include automatic reconciliation of inconsistent initial states and derivatives, automatic initial step selection, direct concurrent parametric sensitivity analysis, and stopping at a prescribed value of any user-defined functional of the current solution vector. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the sensitivities on request. 2 - Method of solution: Reconciliation of initial conditions is done with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithm of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential-algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor- corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase detected and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The backward-difference formulas for the predictor and corrector are expressed in divide-difference form, and the fixed-leading-coefficient form of the corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1980, Brenan et al. 1989) is used. Weights for error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations as given by Catacotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigns the work array lengths and the output unit. The machine number range and precision are determined at run time by a

  4. Multivariate analysis: models and method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanz Perucha, J.

    1990-01-01

    Data treatment techniques are increasingly used since computer methods result of wider access. Multivariate analysis consists of a group of statistic methods that are applied to study objects or samples characterized by multiple values. A final goal is decision making. The paper describes the models and methods of multivariate analysis

  5. Multivariate analysis methods in physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolter, M.

    2007-01-01

    A review of multivariate methods based on statistical training is given. Several multivariate methods useful in high-energy physics analysis are discussed. Selected examples from current research in particle physics are discussed, both from the on-line trigger selection and from the off-line analysis. Also statistical training methods are presented and some new application are suggested [ru

  6. Methods in algorithmic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrushkin, Vladimir A

    2009-01-01

    …helpful to any mathematics student who wishes to acquire a background in classical probability and analysis … This is a remarkably beautiful book that would be a pleasure for a student to read, or for a teacher to make into a year's course.-Harvey Cohn, Computing Reviews, May 2010

  7. Communication Network Analysis Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farace, Richard V.; Mabee, Timothy

    This paper reviews a variety of analytic procedures that can be applied to network data, discussing the assumptions and usefulness of each procedure when applied to the complexity of human communication. Special attention is paid to the network properties measured or implied by each procedure. Factor analysis and multidimensional scaling are among…

  8. Complementing Gender Analysis Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Anant

    2016-01-01

    The existing gender analysis frameworks start with a premise that men and women are equal and should be treated equally. These frameworks give emphasis on equal distribution of resources between men and women and believe that this will bring equality which is not always true. Despite equal distribution of resources, women tend to suffer and experience discrimination in many areas of their lives such as the power to control resources within social relationships, and the need for emotional security and reproductive rights within interpersonal relationships. These frameworks believe that patriarchy as an institution plays an important role in women's oppression, exploitation, and it is a barrier in their empowerment and rights. Thus, some think that by ensuring equal distribution of resources and empowering women economically, institutions like patriarchy can be challenged. These frameworks are based on proposed equality principle which puts men and women in competing roles. Thus, the real equality will never be achieved. Contrary to the existing gender analysis frameworks, the Complementing Gender Analysis framework proposed by the author provides a new approach toward gender analysis which not only recognizes the role of economic empowerment and equal distribution of resources but suggests to incorporate the concept and role of social capital, equity, and doing gender in gender analysis which is based on perceived equity principle, putting men and women in complementing roles that may lead to equality. In this article the author reviews the mainstream gender theories in development from the viewpoint of the complementary roles of gender. This alternative view is argued based on existing literature and an anecdote of observations made by the author. While criticizing the equality theory, the author offers equity theory in resolving the gender conflict by using the concept of social and psychological capital.

  9. Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Fully Kinetic Model of Sequential Reductive Dechlorination in Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguerra, Flavio; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2011-01-01

    experiments of complete trichloroethene (TCE) degradation in natural sediments. Global sensitivity analysis was performed using the Morris method and Sobol sensitivity indices to identify the most influential model parameters. Results show that the sulfate concentration and fermentation kinetics are the most...

  10. Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis of a modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonigan, Patrick J.; Wang, Qiqi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: •Modifying the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation and changing its boundary conditions make it an ergodic dynamical system. •The modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation exhibits distinct dynamics for three different ranges of system parameters. •Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for a wide range of system parameters. - Abstract: Computational methods for sensitivity analysis are invaluable tools for scientists and engineers investigating a wide range of physical phenomena. However, many of these methods fail when applied to chaotic systems, such as the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (K–S) equation, which models a number of different chaotic systems found in nature. The following paper discusses the application of a new sensitivity analysis method developed by the authors to a modified K–S equation. We find that least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for solutions corresponding to a wide range of system parameters

  11. Dispersion sensitivity analysis & consistency improvement of APFSDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeeta Sharma Panda

    2017-08-01

    In Bore Balloting Motion simulation shows that reduction in residual spin by about 5% results in drastic 56% reduction in first maximum yaw. A correlation between first maximum yaw and residual spin is observed. Results of data analysis are used in design modification for existing ammunition. Number of designs are evaluated numerically before freezing five designs for further soundings. These designs are critically assessed in terms of their comparative performance during In-bore travel & external ballistics phase. Results are validated by free flight trials for the finalised design.

  12. A sensitivity analysis approach to optical parameters of scintillation detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghal-Eh, N.; Koohi-Fayegh, R.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, an extended version of the Monte Carlo light transport code, PHOTRACK, has been used for a sensitivity analysis to estimate the importance of different wavelength-dependent parameters in the modelling of light collection process in scintillators

  13. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...

  14. Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather...

  15. Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2001-01-01

    This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit

  17. Finite mixture models for sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic codes for passive safety systems analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Nicola, Giancarlo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge Fondation EDF, Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, Paris (France); Yu, Yu [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing (China)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainties of TH codes affect the system failure probability quantification. • We present Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) for sensitivity analysis of TH codes. • FMMs approximate the pdf of the output of a TH code with a limited number of simulations. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 reactor. • The novel approach overcomes the results of a standard variance decomposition method. - Abstract: For safety analysis of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes are used to predict system response in normal and accidental conditions. The assessment of the uncertainties of TH codes is a critical issue for system failure probability quantification. In this paper, we consider passive safety systems of advanced NPPs and present a novel approach of Sensitivity Analysis (SA). The approach is based on Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) to approximate the probability density function (i.e., the uncertainty) of the output of the passive safety system TH code with a limited number of simulations. We propose a novel Sensitivity Analysis (SA) method for keeping the computational cost low: an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to calculate the saliency of the TH code input variables for identifying those that most affect the system functional failure. The novel approach is compared with a standard variance decomposition method on a case study considering a Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized reactor AP1000.

  18. A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2018-04-01

    Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

  19. Sensitivity kernels for viscoelastic loading based on adjoint methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Attar, David; Tromp, Jeroen

    2014-01-01

    kernel' Kη determines the linearized sensitivity of J to viscosity perturbations defined with respect to a laterally heterogeneous reference earth model, while the `rate-of-loading kernel' K_{dot{σ }} determines the sensitivity to variations in the time derivative of the surface load. By restricting attention to spherically symmetric viscosity perturbations, we also obtain a `radial viscosity kernel' overline{K}_{η } such that the associated contribution to δJ can be written int _{IS}overline{K}_{η }δ ln η dr, where IS denotes the subset of radii lying in solid regions. In order to illustrate this theory, we describe its numerical implementation in the case of a spherically symmetric earth model using a 1-D spectral element method, and calculate sensitivity kernels for a range of realistic observables.

  20. Behavioral metabolomics analysis identifies novel neurochemical signatures in methamphetamine sensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Daniel E.; McClay, Joseph L.; Vunck, Sarah A.; Batman, Angela M.; Vann, Robert E.; Clark, Shaunna L.; Souza, Renan P.; Crowley, James J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; van den Oord, Edwin J.C.G.; Beardsley, Patrick M.

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral sensitization has been widely studied in animal models and is theorized to reflect neural modifications associated with human psychostimulant addiction. While the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway is known to play a role, the neurochemical mechanisms underlying behavioral sensitization remain incompletely understood. In the present study, we conducted the first metabolomics analysis to globally characterize neurochemical differences associated with behavioral sensitization. Methamphetamine-induced sensitization measures were generated by statistically modeling longitudinal activity data for eight inbred strains of mice. Subsequent to behavioral testing, nontargeted liquid and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry profiling was performed on 48 brain samples, yielding 301 metabolite levels per sample after quality control. Association testing between metabolite levels and three primary dimensions of behavioral sensitization (total distance, stereotypy and margin time) showed four robust, significant associations at a stringent metabolome-wide significance threshold (false discovery rate < 0.05). Results implicated homocarnosine, a dipeptide of GABA and histidine, in total distance sensitization, GABA metabolite 4-guanidinobutanoate and pantothenate in stereotypy sensitization, and myo-inositol in margin time sensitization. Secondary analyses indicated that these associations were independent of concurrent methamphetamine levels and, with the exception of the myo-inositol association, suggest a mechanism whereby strain-based genetic variation produces specific baseline neurochemical differences that substantially influence the magnitude of MA-induced sensitization. These findings demonstrate the utility of mouse metabolomics for identifying novel biomarkers, and developing more comprehensive neurochemical models, of psychostimulant sensitization. PMID:24034544

  1. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  2. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  3. High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miwa, Shiro; Nomachi, Ichiro; Kitajima, Hideo

    2006-01-01

    We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10 17 atoms/cm 3 for H, of 3 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for C and of 2 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it

  4. High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miwa, Shiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan)]. E-mail: Shiro.Miwa@jp.sony.com; Nomachi, Ichiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan); Kitajima, Hideo [Nanotechnos Corp., 5-4-30 Nishihashimoto, Sagamihara 229-1131 (Japan)

    2006-07-30

    We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10{sup 17} atoms/cm{sup 3} for H, of 3 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for C and of 2 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it.

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of BLISK Airfoil Wear †

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Kellersmann

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The decreasing performance of jet engines during operation is a major concern for airlines and maintenance companies. Among other effects, the erosion of high-pressure compressor (HPC blades is a critical one and leads to a changed aerodynamic behavior, and therefore to a change in performance. The maintenance of BLISKs (blade-integrated-disks is especially challenging because the blade arrangement cannot be changed and individual blades cannot be replaced. Thus, coupled deteriorated blades have a complex aerodynamic behavior which can have a stronger influence on compressor performance than a conventional HPC. To ensure effective maintenance for BLISKs, the impact of coupled misshaped blades are the key factor. The present study addresses these effects on the aerodynamic performance of a first-stage BLISK of a high-pressure compressor. Therefore, a design of experiments (DoE is done to identify the geometric properties which lead to a reduction in performance. It is shown that the effect of coupled variances is dependent on the operating point. Based on the DoE analysis, the thickness-related parameters, the stagger angle, and the max. profile camber as coupled parameters are identified as the most important parameters for all operating points.

  6. Sensitivity analysis for matched pair analysis of binary data: From worst case to average case analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan

    2017-12-01

    In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Fast and sensitive method for detecting volatile species in liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimarco, Daniel B.; Pedersen, Thomas; Hansen, Ole; Chorkendorff, Ib; Vesborg, Peter C. K.

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a novel apparatus for extracting volatile species from liquids using a "sniffer-chip." By ultrafast transfer of the volatile species through a perforated and hydrophobic membrane into an inert carrier gas stream, the sniffer-chip is able to transport the species directly to a mass spectrometer through a narrow capillary without the use of differential pumping. This method inherits features from differential electrochemical mass spectrometry (DEMS) and membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS), but brings the best of both worlds, i.e., the fast time-response of a DEMS system and the high sensitivity of a MIMS system. In this paper, the concept of the sniffer-chip is thoroughly explained and it is shown how it can be used to quantify hydrogen and oxygen evolution on a polycrystalline platinum thin film in situ at absolute faradaic currents down to ˜30 nA. To benchmark the capabilities of this method, a CO-stripping experiment is performed on a polycrystalline platinum thin film, illustrating how the sniffer-chip system is capable of making a quantitative in situ measurement of <1 % of a monolayer of surface adsorbed CO being electrochemically stripped off an electrode at a potential scan-rate of 50 mV s-1.

  8. A new surface resistance measurement method with ultrahigh sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Changnian.

    1993-01-01

    A superconducting niobium triaxial cavity has been designed and fabricated to study residual surface resistance of planar superconducting materials. The edge of a 25.4 mm or larger diameter sample in the triaxial cavity is located outside the strong field region. Therefore, the edge effects and possible losses between the thin film and the substrate have been minimized, ensuring that induced RF losses are intrinsic to the test material. The fundamental resonant frequency of the cavity is the same as the working frequency of CEBAF cavities. The cavity has a compact size compared to its TE 011 counterpart, which makes it more sensitive to the sample's loss. For even higher sensitivity, a calorimetry method has been used to measure the RF losses on the superconducting sample. At 2 K, a 2 μK temperature change can be resolved by using carbon resistor sensors. The temperature distribution caused by RF heating is measured by 16 carbon composition resistor sensors. A 0.05 μW heating power can be detected as such a resolution, which translates to a surface resistance of 0.02 nΩ at a surface magnetic field of 52 Oe. This is the most sensitive device for surface resistance measurements to date. In addition, losses due to the indium seal, coupling probes, field emission sites other than the sample, and all of the high field resonator surface, are excluded in the measurement. Surface resistance of both niobium and high-Tc superconducting thin films has been measured. A low R s of 35.2 μΩ was measured for a 25.4 mm diameter YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 thin film at 1.5 GHz and at 2 K. The measurement result is the first result for a large area epitaxially grown thin film sample at such a low RF frequency. The abrupt disappearance of multipacting between two parallel plates has been observed and monitored with the 16 temperature mapping sensors. Field emission or some field dependent anomalous RF losses on the niobium plate have also been observed

  9. The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus

    1997-01-01

    The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied

  10. Carbon dioxide capture processes: Simulation, design and sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay Hyung; Gani, Rafiqul

    2012-01-01

    equilibrium and associated property models are used. Simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the process variables to change in the design variables including process inputs and disturbances in the property model parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis on the steady state...... performance of the process to the L/G ratio to the absorber, CO2 lean solvent loadings, and striper pressure are presented in this paper. Based on the sensitivity analysis process optimization problems have been defined and solved and, a preliminary control structure selection has been made.......Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and its major source is combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. The objective of this study is to carry out the steady-state sensitivity analysis for chemical absorption of carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine solvent. First...

  11. Simplified procedures for fast reactor fuel cycle and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badruzzaman, A.

    1979-01-01

    The Continuous Slowing Down-Integral Transport Theory has been extended to perform criticality calculations in a Fast Reactor Core-blanket system achieving excellent prediction of the spectrum and the eigenvalue. The integral transport parameters did not need recalculation with source iteration and were found to be relatively constant with exposure. Fuel cycle parameters were accurately predicted when these were not varied, thus reducing a principal potential penalty of the Intergal Transport approach where considerable effort may be required to calculate transport parameters in more complicated geometries. The small variation of the spectrum in the central core region, and its weak dependence on exposure for both this region, the core blanket interface and blanket region led to the extension and development of inexpensive simplified procedures to complement exact methods. These procedures gave accurate predictions of the key fuel cycle parameters such as cost and their sensitivity to variation in spectrum-averaged and multigroup cross sections. They also predicted the implications of design variation on these parameters very well. The accuracy of these procedures and their use in analyzing a wide variety of sensitivities demonstrate the potential utility of survey calculations in Fast Reactor analysis and fuel management

  12. Semianalytic Design Sensitivity Analysis of Nonlinear Structures With a Commercial Finite Element Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Tae Hee; Yoo, Jung Hun; Choi, Hyeong Cheol

    2002-01-01

    A finite element package is often used as a daily design tool for engineering designers in order to analyze and improve the design. The finite element analysis can provide the responses of a system for given design variables. Although finite element analysis can quite well provide the structural behaviors for given design variables, it cannot provide enough information to improve the design such as design sensitivity coefficients. Design sensitivity analysis is an essential step to predict the change in responses due to a change in design variables and to optimize a system with the aid of the gradient-based optimization techniques. To develop a numerical method of design sensitivity analysis, analytical derivatives that are based on analytical differentiation of the continuous or discrete finite element equations are effective but analytical derivatives are difficult because of the lack of internal information of the commercial finite element package such as shape functions. Therefore, design sensitivity analysis outside of the finite element package is necessary for practical application in an industrial setting. In this paper, the semi-analytic method for design sensitivity analysis is used for the development of the design sensitivity module outside of a commercial finite element package of ANSYS. The direct differentiation method is employed to compute the design derivatives of the response and the pseudo-load for design sensitivity analysis is effectively evaluated by using the design variation of the related internal nodal forces. Especially, we suggest an effective method for stress and nonlinear design sensitivity analyses that is independent of the commercial finite element package is also discussed. Numerical examples are illustrated to show the accuracy and efficiency of the developed method and to provide insights for implementation of the suggested method into other commercial finite element packages

  13. Perturbative methods applied for sensitive coefficients calculations in thermal-hydraulic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade Lima, F.R. de

    1993-01-01

    The differential formalism and the Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) are applied to sensitivity analysis of thermal-hydraulics problems related to pressurized water reactor cores. The equations describing the thermal-hydraulic behavior of these reactors cores, used in COBRA-IV-I code, are conveniently written. The importance function related to the response of interest and the sensitivity coefficient of this response with respect to various selected parameters are obtained by using Differential and Generalized Perturbation Theory. The comparison among the results obtained with the application of these perturbative methods and those obtained directly with the model developed in COBRA-IV-I code shows a very good agreement. (author)

  14. Contribution to the sample mean plot for graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolado-Lavin, R.; Castaings, W.; Tarantola, S.

    2009-01-01

    The contribution to the sample mean plot, originally proposed by Sinclair, is revived and further developed as practical tool for global sensitivity analysis. The potentials of this simple and versatile graphical tool are discussed. Beyond the qualitative assessment provided by this approach, a statistical test is proposed for sensitivity analysis. A case study that simulates the transport of radionuclides through the geosphere from an underground disposal vault containing nuclear waste is considered as a benchmark. The new approach is tested against a very efficient sensitivity analysis method based on state dependent parameter meta-modelling

  15. Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun

    2017-12-01

    Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.

  16. Basic methods of isotope analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochkin, A.V.; Rozenkevich, M.B.

    2000-01-01

    The bases of the most applied methods of the isotope analysis are briefly presented. The possibilities and analytical characteristics of the mass-spectrometric, spectral, radiochemical and special methods of the isotope analysis, including application of the magnetic resonance, chromatography and refractometry, are considered [ru

  17. Excitation methods for energy dispersive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaklevic, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The rapid development in recent years of energy dispersive x-ray fluorescence analysis has been based primarily on improvements in semiconductor detector x-ray spectrometers. However, the whole analysis system performance is critically dependent on the availability of optimum methods of excitation for the characteristic x rays in specimens. A number of analysis facilities based on various methods of excitation have been developed over the past few years. A discussion is given of the features of various excitation methods including charged particles, monochromatic photons, and broad-energy band photons. The effects of the excitation method on background and sensitivity are discussed from both theoretical and experimental viewpoints. Recent developments such as pulsed excitation and polarized photons are also discussed

  18. Studies on analytical method and nondestructive measuring method on the sensitization of austenitic stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onimura, Kichiro; Arioka, Koji; Horai, Manabu; Noguchi, Shigeru.

    1982-03-01

    Austenitic stainless steels are widely used as structural materials for the machine and equipment of various kinds of plants, such as thermal power, nuclear power, and chemical plants. The machines and equipment using this kind of material, however, have the possibility of suffering corrosion damage while in service, and these damages are considered to be largely due to the sensitization of the material in sometimes. So, it is necessary to develop an analytical method for grasping the sensitization of the material more in detail and a quantitative nondestructive measuring method which is applicable to various kinds of structures in order to prevent the corrosion damage. From the above viewpoint, studies have been made on the analytical method based on the theory of diffusion of chromium in austenitic stainless steels and on Electro-Potentiokinetics Reactivation Method (EPR Method) as a nondestructive measuring method, using 304 and 316 austenitic stainless steels having different carbon contents in base metals. This paper introduces the results of EPR test on the sensitization of austenitic stainless steels and the correlation between analytical and experimental results. (author)

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae

    2016-01-01

    Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.

  1. Sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks using a symbolic-numerical technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Kjaerulff, Uffe

    2003-01-01

    The paper discusses the problem of sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks. The algebraic structure of the conditional means and variances, as rational functions involving linear and quadratic functions of the parameters, are used to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In particular the probabilities of conditional variables exceeding given values and related probabilities are analyzed. Two examples of application are used to illustrate all the concepts and methods

  2. Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan

    2014-01-01

    A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)

  3. Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konakli, Katerina; Sudret, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    In the context of global sensitivity analysis, the Sobol' indices constitute a powerful tool for assessing the relative significance of the uncertain input parameters of a model. We herein introduce a novel approach for evaluating these indices at low computational cost, by post-processing the coefficients of polynomial meta-models belonging to the class of low-rank tensor approximations. Meta-models of this class can be particularly efficient in representing responses of high-dimensional models, because the number of unknowns in their general functional form grows only linearly with the input dimension. The proposed approach is validated in example applications, where the Sobol' indices derived from the meta-model coefficients are compared to reference indices, the latter obtained by exact analytical solutions or Monte-Carlo simulation with extremely large samples. Moreover, low-rank tensor approximations are confronted to the popular polynomial chaos expansion meta-models in case studies that involve analytical rank-one functions and finite-element models pertinent to structural mechanics and heat conduction. In the examined applications, indices based on the novel approach tend to converge faster to the reference solution with increasing size of the experimental design used to build the meta-model. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed for global sensitivity analysis of high-dimensional models. • Low-rank tensor approximations (LRA) are used as a meta-modeling technique. • Analytical formulas for the Sobol' indices in terms of LRA coefficients are derived. • The accuracy and efficiency of the approach is illustrated in application examples. • LRA-based indices are compared to indices based on polynomial chaos expansions.

  4. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucherenko, Sergei; Feil, Balazs; Shah, Nilay; Mauntz, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  5. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucherenko, Sergei, E-mail: s.kucherenko@ic.ac.u [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Feil, Balazs [Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprem (Hungary); Shah, Nilay [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Mauntz, Wolfgang [Lehrstuhl fuer Anlagensteuerungstechnik, Fachbereich Chemietechnik, Universitaet Dortmund (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  6. Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Rasmussen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    satisfies the design objectives and criteria. In the design of sustainable buildings, it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. Sensitivity analyses make it possible to identify...... possible to influence the most important design parameters. A methodology of sensitivity analysis is presented and an application example is given for design of an office building in Denmark....

  7. Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking

    OpenAIRE

    N. Avkiran

    2010-01-01

    Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...

  8. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.L.; Thompson, B.M.

    1984-01-01

    The adjoint sensitivity method is applied to thermomechanical models for the first time. The method provides an efficient and inexpensive answer to the question: how sensitive are thermomechanical predictions to assumed parameters. The answer is exact, in the sense that it yields exact derivatives of response measures to parameters, and approximate, in the sense that projections of the response fo other parameter assumptions are only first order correct. The method is applied to linear finite element models of thermomechanical behavior. Extensions to more complicated models are straight-forward but often laborious. An illustration of the method with a two-dimensional repository corridor model reveals that the chosen stress response measure was most sensitive to Poisson's ratio for the rock matrix

  9. Development of an accurate, sensitive, and robust isotope dilution laser ablation ICP-MS method for simultaneous multi-element analysis (chlorine, sulfur, and heavy metals) in coal samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulyga, Sergei F.; Heilmann, Jens; Heumann, Klaus G.; Prohaska, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    A method for the direct multi-element determination of Cl, S, Hg, Pb, Cd, U, Br, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Zn in powdered coal samples has been developed by applying inductively coupled plasma isotope dilution mass spectrometry (ICP-IDMS) with laser-assisted introduction into the plasma. A sector-field ICP-MS with a mass resolution of 4,000 and a high-ablation rate laser ablation system provided significantly better sensitivity, detection limits, and accuracy compared to a conventional laser ablation system coupled with a quadrupole ICP-MS. The sensitivity ranges from about 590 cps for 35 Cl + to more than 6 x 10 5 cps for 238 U + for 1 μg of trace element per gram of coal sample. Detection limits vary from 450 ng g -1 for chlorine and 18 ng g -1 for sulfur to 9.5 pg g -1 for mercury and 0.3 pg g -1 for uranium. Analyses of minor and trace elements in four certified reference materials (BCR-180 Gas Coal, BCR-331 Steam Coal, SRM 1632c Trace Elements in Coal, SRM 1635 Trace Elements in Coal) yielded good agreement of usually not more than 5% deviation from the certified values and precisions of less than 10% relative standard deviation for most elements. Higher relative standard deviations were found for particular elements such as Hg and Cd caused by inhomogeneities due to associations of these elements within micro-inclusions in coal which was demonstrated for Hg in SRM 1635, SRM 1632c, and another standard reference material (SRM 2682b, Sulfur and Mercury in Coal). The developed LA-ICP-IDMS method with its simple sample pretreatment opens the possibility for accurate, fast, and highly sensitive determinations of environmentally critical contaminants in coal as well as of trace impurities in similar sample materials like graphite powder and activated charcoal on a routine basis. (orig.)

  10. Development of an accurate, sensitive, and robust isotope dilution laser ablation ICP-MS method for simultaneous multi-element analysis (chlorine, sulfur, and heavy metals) in coal samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulyga, Sergei F; Heilmann, Jens; Prohaska, Thomas; Heumann, Klaus G

    2007-10-01

    A method for the direct multi-element determination of Cl, S, Hg, Pb, Cd, U, Br, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Zn in powdered coal samples has been developed by applying inductively coupled plasma isotope dilution mass spectrometry (ICP-IDMS) with laser-assisted introduction into the plasma. A sector-field ICP-MS with a mass resolution of 4,000 and a high-ablation rate laser ablation system provided significantly better sensitivity, detection limits, and accuracy compared to a conventional laser ablation system coupled with a quadrupole ICP-MS. The sensitivity ranges from about 590 cps for (35)Cl+ to more than 6 x 10(5) cps for (238)U+ for 1 microg of trace element per gram of coal sample. Detection limits vary from 450 ng g(-1) for chlorine and 18 ng g(-1) for sulfur to 9.5 pg g(-1) for mercury and 0.3 pg g(-1) for uranium. Analyses of minor and trace elements in four certified reference materials (BCR-180 Gas Coal, BCR-331 Steam Coal, SRM 1632c Trace Elements in Coal, SRM 1635 Trace Elements in Coal) yielded good agreement of usually not more than 5% deviation from the certified values and precisions of less than 10% relative standard deviation for most elements. Higher relative standard deviations were found for particular elements such as Hg and Cd caused by inhomogeneities due to associations of these elements within micro-inclusions in coal which was demonstrated for Hg in SRM 1635, SRM 1632c, and another standard reference material (SRM 2682b, Sulfur and Mercury in Coal). The developed LA-ICP-IDMS method with its simple sample pretreatment opens the possibility for accurate, fast, and highly sensitive determinations of environmentally critical contaminants in coal as well as of trace impurities in similar sample materials like graphite powder and activated charcoal on a routine basis.

  11. Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

    2011-01-01

    Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors

  12. Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

    2011-03-01

    Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors.

  13. MOVES sensitivity analysis update : Transportation Research Board Summer Meeting 2012 : ADC-20 Air Quality Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION : Evaluation Parameters : EPAs Sensitivity Analysis : Comparison to Baseline Case : MOVES Sensitivity Run Specification : MOVES Sensitivity Input Parameters : Results : Uses of Study

  14. Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates

  15. Probabilistic methods for rotordynamics analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T. Y.; Millwater, H. R.; Fossum, A. F.; Rheinfurth, M. H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of dynamic systems that can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the eigenvalues or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on a fast probability integration concept and an efficient adaptive importance sampling method are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the methods.

  16. Coupling between the differential and perturbation theory methods for calculating sensitivity coefficients in nuclear transmutation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, Lubianka Ferrari Russo

    2014-01-01

    The main target of this study is to introduce a new method for calculating the coefficients of sensibility through the union of differential method and generalized perturbation theory, which are the two methods generally used in reactor physics to obtain such variables. These two methods, separated, have some issues turning the sensibility coefficients calculation slower or computationally exhaustive. However, putting them together, it is possible to repair these issues and build a new equation for the coefficient of sensibility. The method introduced in this study was applied in a PWR reactor, where it was performed the sensibility analysis for the production and 239 Pu conversion rate during 120 days (1 cycle) of burnup. The computational code used for both burnup and sensibility analysis, the CINEW, was developed in this study and all the results were compared with codes widely used in reactor physics, such as CINDER and SERPENT. The new mathematical method for calculating the sensibility coefficients and the code CINEW provide good numerical agility and also good efficiency and security, once the new method, when compared with traditional ones, provide satisfactory results, even when the other methods use different mathematical approaches. The burnup analysis, performed using the code CINEW, was compared with the code CINDER, showing an acceptable variation, though CINDER presents some computational issues due to the period it was built. The originality of this study is the application of such method in problems involving temporal dependence and, not least, the elaboration of the first national code for burnup and sensitivity analysis. (author)

  17. PDASAC, Partial Differential Sensitivity Analysis of Stiff System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: PDASAC solves stiff, nonlinear initial-boundary-value problems in a timelike dimension t and a space dimension x. Plane, circular cylindrical or spherical boundaries can be handled. Mixed-order systems of partial differential and algebraic equations can be analyzed with members of order or 0 or 1 in t, 0, 1 or 2 in x. Parametric sensitivities of the calculated states are computed simultaneously on request, via the Jacobian of the state equations. Initial and boundary conditions are efficiently reconciled. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the parametric sensitivities if desired. 2 - Method of solution: The method of lines is used, with a user- selected x-grid and a minimum-bandwidth finite-difference approximations of the x-derivatives. Starting conditions are reconciled with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithms of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential- algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor-corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase deleted and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The predictor and corrector are expressed in divided-difference form, with the fixed-leading-coefficient form of corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1989; Brenan et al. 1989). Weights for the error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations of Caracotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic equation systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigned the work array lengths and the output

  18. An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis for Unobserved Confounding in Non-Experimental Prevention Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuramoto, S. Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Despite that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are left to be answered through non-experimental studies often because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most non-experimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for non-experimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from non-experimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policymakers regarding potential intervention targets. PMID:23408282

  19. An introduction to sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding in nonexperimental prevention research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiwei; Kuramoto, S Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A

    2013-12-01

    Despite the fact that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are often left to be answered through nonexperimental studies because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most nonexperimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example, we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring's risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall, the association between maternal suicide and offspring's hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for nonexperimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from nonexperimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policy makers regarding potential intervention targets.

  20. Analysis of Precision of Activation Analysis Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Nørgaard, K.

    1973-01-01

    The precision of an activation-analysis method prescribes the estimation of the precision of a single analytical result. The adequacy of these estimates to account for the observed variation between duplicate results from the analysis of different samples and materials, is tested by the statistic T...

  1. An approach of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods installation in a safety calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepin, G.; Sallaberry, C.

    2003-01-01

    Simulation of the migration in deep geological formations leads to solve convection-diffusion equations in porous media, associated with the computation of hydrogeologic flow. Different time-scales (simulation during 1 million years), scales of space, contrasts of properties in the calculation domain, are taken into account. This document deals more particularly with uncertainties on the input data of the model. These uncertainties are taken into account in total analysis with the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. ANDRA (French national agency for the management of radioactive wastes) carries out studies on the treatment of input data uncertainties and their propagation in the models of safety, in order to be able to quantify the influence of input data uncertainties of the models on the various indicators of safety selected. The step taken by ANDRA consists initially of 2 studies undertaken in parallel: - the first consists of an international review of the choices retained by ANDRA foreign counterparts to carry out their uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, - the second relates to a review of the various methods being able to be used in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the context of ANDRA's safety calculations. Then, these studies are supplemented by a comparison of the principal methods on a test case which gathers all the specific constraints (physical, numerical and data-processing) of the problem studied by ANDRA

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to coupled code calculations for a VVER plant transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langenbuch, S.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Schmidt, K. D.

    2004-01-01

    The development of coupled codes, combining thermal-hydraulic system codes and 3D neutron kinetics, is an important step to perform best-estimate plant transient calculations. It is generally agreed that the application of best-estimate methods should be supplemented by an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to quantify the uncertainty of the results. The paper presents results from the application of the GRS uncertainty and sensitivity method for a VVER-440 plant transient, which was already studied earlier for the validation of coupled codes. For this application, the main steps of the uncertainty method are described. Typical results of the method applied to the analysis of the plant transient by several working groups using different coupled codes are presented and discussed The results demonstrate the capability of an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

  3. Multi-scale sensitivity analysis of pile installation using DEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Ricardo Gurevitz; Velloso, Raquel Quadros; , Eurípedes do Amaral Vargas, Jr.; Danziger, Bernadete Ragoni

    2017-12-01

    The disturbances experienced by the soil due to the pile installation and dynamic soil-structure interaction still present major challenges to foundation engineers. These phenomena exhibit complex behaviors, difficult to measure in physical tests and to reproduce in numerical models. Due to the simplified approach used by the discrete element method (DEM) to simulate large deformations and nonlinear stress-dilatancy behavior of granular soils, the DEM consists of an excellent tool to investigate these processes. This study presents a sensitivity analysis of the effects of introducing a single pile using the PFC2D software developed by Itasca Co. The different scales investigated in these simulations include point and shaft resistance, alterations in porosity and stress fields and particles displacement. Several simulations were conducted in order to investigate the effects of different numerical approaches showing indications that the method of installation and particle rotation could influence greatly in the conditions around the numerical pile. Minor effects were also noted due to change in penetration velocity and pile-soil friction. The difference in behavior of a moving and a stationary pile shows good qualitative agreement with previous experimental results indicating the necessity of realizing a force equilibrium process prior to any load-test to be simulated.

  4. Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry R. Millwater

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.

  5. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otis, M.D.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

  6. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  7. Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permutt, Thomas

    2016-07-30

    The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  8. Analysis apparatus and method of analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    A continuous streaming method developed for the excution of immunoassays is described in this patent. In addition, a suitable apparatus for the method was developed whereby magnetic particles are automatically employed for the consecutive analysis of a series of liquid samples via the RIA technique

  9. Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

  10. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  11. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  12. Nonlinear programming analysis and methods

    CERN Document Server

    Avriel, Mordecai

    2012-01-01

    This text provides an excellent bridge between principal theories and concepts and their practical implementation. Topics include convex programming, duality, generalized convexity, analysis of selected nonlinear programs, techniques for numerical solutions, and unconstrained optimization methods.

  13. Chemical methods of rock analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jeffery, P. G; Hutchison, D

    1981-01-01

    A practical guide to the methods in general use for the complete analysis of silicate rock material and for the determination of all those elements present in major, minor or trace amounts in silicate...

  14. Sensitivity analysis of water consumption in an office building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchacek, Tomas; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan

    2018-02-01

    This article deals with sensitivity analysis of real water consumption in an office building. During a long-term real study, reducing of pressure in its water connection was simulated. A sensitivity analysis of uneven water demand was conducted during working time at various provided pressures and at various time step duration. Correlations between maximal coefficients of water demand variation during working time and provided pressure were suggested. The influence of provided pressure in the water connection on mean coefficients of water demand variation was pointed out, altogether for working hours of all days and separately for days with identical working hours.

  15. Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.

  16. A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

    2007-02-02

    Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

  17. Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments, and confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2011-01-01

    Uncontrolled confounding in observational studies gives rise to biased effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be useful in assessing the magnitude of these biases. In this paper, we use the potential outcomes framework to derive a general class of sensitivity-analysis formulas for outcomes, treatments, and measured and unmeasured confounding variables that may be categorical or continuous. We give results for additive, risk-ratio and odds-ratio scales. We show that these results encompass a number of more specific sensitivity-analysis methods in the statistics and epidemiology literature. The applicability, usefulness, and limits of the bias-adjustment formulas are discussed. We illustrate the sensitivity-analysis techniques that follow from our results by applying them to 3 different studies. The bias formulas are particularly simple and easy to use in settings in which the unmeasured confounding variable is binary with constant effect on the outcome across treatment levels.

  18. The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1974-01-01

    A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

  19. Quasi-random Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chatzivasileiadis, T.

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainty and robustness of Computable General Equilibrium models can be assessed by conducting a Systematic Sensitivity Analysis. Different methods have been used in the literature for SSA of CGE models such as Gaussian Quadrature and Monte Carlo methods. This paper explores the use of

  20. Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Easter, Richard C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California Davis, California USA; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA

    2016-04-08

    We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance

  1. The adjoint sensitivity method, a contribution to the code uncertainty evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ounsy, A.; Brun, B.; De Crecy, F.

    1994-01-01

    This paper deals with the application of the adjoint sensitivity method (ASM) to thermal hydraulic codes. The advantage of the method is to use small central processing unit time in comparison with the usual approach requiring one complete code run per sensitivity determination. In the first part the mathematical aspects of the problem are treated, and the applicability of the method of the functional-type response of a thermal hydraulic model is demonstrated. On a simple example of non-linear hyperbolic equation (Burgers equation) the problem has been analysed. It is shown that the formalism used in the literature treating this subject is not appropriate. A new mathematical formalism circumventing the problem is proposed. For the discretized form of the problem, two methods are possible: the continuous ASM and the discrete ASM. The equivalence of both methods is demonstrated; nevertheless only the discrete ASM constitutes a practical solution for thermal hydraulic codes. The application of the discrete ASM to the thermal hydraulic safety code CATHARE is then presented for two examples. They demonstrate that the discrete ASM constitutes an efficient tool for the analysis of code sensitivity. ((orig.))

  2. The adjoint sensitivity method, a contribution to the code uncertainty evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ounsy, A.; Crecy, F. de; Brun, B.

    1993-01-01

    The application of the ASM (Adjoint Sensitivity Method) to thermohydraulic codes, is examined. The advantage of the method is to be very few CPU time consuming in comparison with usual approach requiring one complete code run per sensitivity determination. The mathematical aspects of the problem are first described, and the applicability of the method of the functional-type response of a thermalhydraulic model is demonstrated. On a simple example of non linear hyperbolic equation (Burgers equation) the problem has been analyzed. It is shown that the formalism used in the literature treating this subject is not appropriate. A new mathematical formalism circumventing the problem is proposed. For the discretized form of the problem, two methods are possible: the Continuous ASM and the Discrete ASM. The equivalence of both methods is demonstrated; nevertheless only the DASM constitutes a practical solution for thermalhydraulic codes. The application of the DASM to the thermalhydraulic safety code CATHARE is then presented for two examples. They demonstrate that ASM constitutes an efficient tool for the analysis of code sensitivity. (authors) 7 figs., 5 tabs., 8 refs

  3. The adjoint sensitivity method. A contribution to the code uncertainty evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ounsy, A.; Brun, B.

    1993-01-01

    The application of the ASM (Adjoint Sensitivity Method) to thermohydraulic codes, is examined. The advantage of the method is to be very few CPU time consuming in comparison with usual approach requiring one complete code run per sensitivity determination. The mathematical aspects of the problem are first described, and the applicability of the method of the functional-type response of a thermalhydraulic model is demonstrated. On a simple example of non linear hyperbolic equation (Burgers equation) the problem has been analyzed. It is shown that the formalism used in the literature treating this subject is not appropriate. A new mathematical formalism circumventing the problem is proposed. For the discretized form of the problem, two methods are possible: the Continuous ASM and the Discrete ASM. The equivalence of both methods is demonstrated; nevertheless only the DASM constitutes a practical solution for thermalhydraulic codes. The application of the DASM to the thermalhydraulic safety code CATHARE is then presented for two examples. They demonstrate that ASM constitutes an efficient tool for the analysis of code sensitivity. (authors) 7 figs., 5 tabs., 8 refs

  4. The adjoint sensitivity method. A contribution to the code uncertainty evaluation

    Energy Technology Data