WorldWideScience

Sample records for semiquantitative risk analysis

  1. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-03-15

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  2. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarca, Riccardo; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  3. Usefulness of semiquantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium-201 redistribution for improving risk stratification before vascular surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levinson, J.R.; Boucher, C.A.; Coley, C.M.; Guiney, T.E.; Strauss, H.W.; Eagle, K.A.

    1990-01-01

    Preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning is sensitive in identifying patients prone to ischemic cardiac complications after vascular surgery, but most patients with redistribution do not have an event after surgery. Therefore, its positive predictive value is limited. To determine which patients with thallium redistribution are at highest risk, dipyridamole-thallium-201 images were interpreted semiquantitatively. Sixty-two consecutive patients with redistribution on preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 planar imaging studies were identified. Each thallium scan was then analyzed independently by 2 observers for the number of myocardial segments out of 15, the number of thallium views out of 3 and the number of coronary artery territories with redistribution. Seventeen patients (27%) had postoperative ischemic events, including unstable angina pectoris, ischemic pulmonary edema, myocardial infarction and cardiac death. Thallium predictors of ischemic operative complications included thallium redistribution greater than or equal to 4 myocardial segments (p = 0.03), greater than or equal to 2 of the 3 planar views (p = 0.005) and greater than or equal to 2 coronary territories (p = 0.007). No patient with redistribution in only 1 view had an ischemic event (0 of 15). Thus, determining the extent of redistribution by dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning improves risk stratification before vascular surgery. Patients with greater numbers of myocardial segments and greater numbers of coronary territories showing thallium-201 redistribution are at higher risk for ischemic cardiac complications. In contrast, when the extent of thallium redistribution is limited, there is a lower risk despite the presence of redistribution

  4. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  5. Semiquantitative activation analysis in metallic alloys submitted to irregular irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veissid, N.; Lucki, G.

    1979-01-01

    An analytic semiquantitative method using neutron activation was developed to determine the impurities and verify the composition of metallic alloys. By the radioactive transformation law, the number of atoms of each element present in the sample is determined measuring the activity in a multichannel. Two samples were analysed: a) Sample of nominal compositions FeNiCr (49,95-49,95 - 0,1% at). b) Sample of nominal composition NiCr (80,20% at). (Author) [pt

  6. PIQMIe: A web server for semi-quantitative proteomics data management and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kuzniar (Arnold); R. Kanaar (Roland)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe present the Proteomics Identifications and Quantitations Data Management and Integration Service or PIQMIe that aids in reliable and scalable data management, analysis and visualization of semi-quantitative mass spectrometry based proteomics experiments. PIQMIe readily integrates

  7. Semiquantitative Culture Analysis during Therapy for Mycobacterium avium Complex Lung Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, David E; Adjemian, Jennifer; Brown-Elliott, Barbara A; Philley, Julie V; Prevots, D Rebecca; Gaston, Christopher; Olivier, Kenneth N; Wallace, Richard J

    2015-09-15

    Microbiologically based criteria such as sputum culture conversion to negative have traditionally been used to define treatment success for mycobacterial diseases. There are, however, limited data regarding whether nontuberculous mycobacterial sputum culture conversion or semiquantitative culture analysis correlates with subjective or nonmicrobiologic objective indices of treatment response. To determine whether a semiquantitative mycobacterial culture scale correlated with clinical disease status and was predictive of long-term sputum mycobacterial culture conversion to negative in a cohort of patients with nodular/bronchiectatic Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease undergoing therapy. One hundred and eighty patients undergoing standard macrolide-based therapy for M. avium complex lung disease were monitored at standard frequent intervals with symptomatic, radiographic, and microbiologic data collected, including semiquantitative mycobacterial culture analysis. Analyses were used to evaluate clinical and microbiologic predictors of long-term sputum conversion to culture negative. After 12 months of therapy, 148 (82%) patients had sputum conversion to culture negative. Baseline semiquantitative sputum culture scores did not differ between patients with sputum conversion and those without. The change in sputum culture semiquantitative score from baseline to Month 3 was highly predictive of subsequent sputum long-term conversion status indicative of treatment success, as was improvement in cough, and especially early radiographic improvement. Early semiquantitative sputum agar plate culture results can be used to predict symptomatic and radiographic improvement as well as long-term sputum culture conversion to negative in this population. We suggest that semiquantitative sputum culture scores can be a useful tool for evaluating new nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease therapies.

  8. A critical appraisal of semi-quantitative analysis of 2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, P.T.; McCulloch, J.

    1983-01-01

    Semi-quantitative analysis (e.g. optical density ratios) of [ 14 C]2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms is widely used in neuroscience research. The authors demonstrate that a fixed ratio of 14 C-concentrations in the CNS does not yield a constant optical density ratio but is dependent upon the exposure time in the preparation of the autoradiograms and the absolute amounts of 14 C from which the concentration ratio is derived. The failure of a fixed glucose utilization ratio to result in a constant optical density ratio represents a major interpretative difficulty in investigations where only semi-quantitative analysis of [ 14 C]2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms is undertaken. (Auth.)

  9. Critical appraisal of semi-quantitative analysis of 2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, P T; McCulloch, J [Glasgow Univ. (UK)

    1983-06-13

    Semi-quantitative analysis (e.g. optical density ratios) of (/sup 14/C)2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms is widely used in neuroscience research. The authors demonstrate that a fixed ratio of /sup 14/C-concentrations in the CNS does not yield a constant optical density ratio but is dependent upon the exposure time in the preparation of the autoradiograms and the absolute amounts of /sup 14/C from which the concentration ratio is derived. The failure of a fixed glucose utilization ratio to result in a constant optical density ratio represents a major interpretative difficulty in investigations where only semi-quantitative analysis of (/sup 14/C)2-deoxyglucose autoradiograms is undertaken.

  10. Global scaling for semi-quantitative analysis in FP-CIT SPECT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupitz, D; Apostolova, I; Lange, C; Ulrich, G; Amthauer, H; Brenner, W; Buchert, R

    2014-01-01

    Semi-quantitative characterization of dopamine transporter availability from single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with 123I-ioflupane (FP-CIT) is based on uptake ratios relative to a reference region. The aim of this study was to evaluate the whole brain as reference region for semi-quantitative analysis of FP-CIT SPECT. The rationale was that this might reduce statistical noise associated with the estimation of non-displaceable FP-CIT uptake. 150 FP-CIT SPECTs were categorized as neurodegenerative or non-neurodegenerative by an expert. Semi-quantitative analysis of specific binding ratios (SBR) was performed with a custom-made tool based on the Statistical Parametric Mapping software package using predefined regions of interest (ROIs) in the anatomical space of the Montreal Neurological Institute. The following reference regions were compared: predefined ROIs for frontal and occipital lobe and whole brain (without striata, thalamus and brainstem). Tracer uptake in the reference region was characterized by the mean, median or 75th percentile of its voxel intensities. The area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used as performance measure. The highest AUC of 0.973 was achieved by the SBR of the putamen with the 75th percentile in the whole brain as reference. The lowest AUC for the putamen SBR of 0.937 was obtained with the mean in the frontal lobe as reference. We recommend the 75th percentile in the whole brain as reference for semi-quantitative analysis in FP-CIT SPECT. This combination provided the best agreement of the semi-quantitative analysis with visual evaluation of the SPECT images by an expert and, therefore, is appropriate to support less experienced physicians.

  11. Study of the Qualitative and Semi-quantitative Analysis of Grape Seed Extract by HPLC

    OpenAIRE

    Sorolla, Sílvia; Flores, Antònia; Canals Parelló, Trini; Cantero Gómez, María Rosa; Font Vallès, Joaquim; Ollé Otero, Lluís; Bacardit Dalmases, Anna

    2018-01-01

    The main aim of this study is to carry out a qualitative and semiquantitative analysis of tannin extracts as an alternative to the official analysis method ISO 14088 – IUC 32, so that a correlation between the two methods is established. From the point of view of the chemical composition, tannins are classified into two major groups: i) condensed tannins, also called flavanols or catechins, and ii) hydrolysable tannins, also called pyrogallic tannins. Today, the most widely used convent...

  12. Diagnostic performance of semi-quantitative and quantitative stress CMR perfusion analysis: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, R; van Assen, M; Vliegenthart, R; de Bock, G H; van der Harst, P; Oudkerk, M

    2017-11-27

    Stress cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion imaging is a promising modality for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD) due to high spatial resolution and absence of radiation. Semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of CMR perfusion are based on signal-intensity curves produced during the first-pass of gadolinium contrast. Multiple semi-quantitative and quantitative parameters have been introduced. Diagnostic performance of these parameters varies extensively among studies and standardized protocols are lacking. This study aims to determine the diagnostic accuracy of semi- quantitative and quantitative CMR perfusion parameters, compared to multiple reference standards. Pubmed, WebOfScience, and Embase were systematically searched using predefined criteria (3272 articles). A check for duplicates was performed (1967 articles). Eligibility and relevance of the articles was determined by two reviewers using pre-defined criteria. The primary data extraction was performed independently by two researchers with the use of a predefined template. Differences in extracted data were resolved by discussion between the two researchers. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the 'Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies Tool' (QUADAS-2). True positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives were subtracted/calculated from the articles. The principal summary measures used to assess diagnostic accuracy were sensitivity, specificity, andarea under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Data was pooled according to analysis territory, reference standard and perfusion parameter. Twenty-two articles were eligible based on the predefined study eligibility criteria. The pooled diagnostic accuracy for segment-, territory- and patient-based analyses showed good diagnostic performance with sensitivity of 0.88, 0.82, and 0.83, specificity of 0.72, 0.83, and 0.76 and AUC of 0.90, 0.84, and 0.87, respectively. In per territory

  13. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  14. Calibration strategy for semi-quantitative direct gas analysis using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerdes, Kirk; Carter, Kimberly E.

    2011-01-01

    A process is described by which an ICP-MS equipped with an Octopole Reaction System (ORS) is calibrated using liquid phase standards to facilitate direct analysis of gas phase samples. The instrument response to liquid phase standards is analyzed to produce empirical factors relating ion generation and transmission efficiencies to standard operating parameters. Empirical factors generated for liquid phase samples are then used to produce semi-quantitative analysis of both mixed liquid/gas samples and pure gas samples. The method developed is similar to the semi-quantitative analysis algorithms in the commercial software, which have here been expanded to include gas phase elements such as Xe and Kr. Equations for prediction of relative ionization efficiencies and isotopic transmission are developed for several combinations of plasma operating conditions, which allows adjustment of limited parameters between liquid and gas injection modes. In particular, the plasma temperature and electron density are calculated from comparison of experimental results to the predictions of the Saha equation. Comparisons between operating configurations are made to determine the robustness of the analysis to plasma conditions and instrument operating parameters. Using the methods described in this research, the elemental concentrations in a liquid standard containing 45 analytes and treated as an unknown sample were quantified accurately to ± 50% for most elements using 133 Cs as a single internal reference. The method is used to predict liquid phase mercury within 12% of the actual concentration and gas phase mercury within 28% of the actual concentration. The results verify that the calibration method facilitates accurate semi-quantitative, gas phase analysis of metal species with sufficient sensitivity to quantify metal concentrations lower than 1 ppb for many metallic analytes.

  15. Semiquantitative spectrographic analysis of nuclear interest minerals and of various products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Gonzalez, F.; Roca Adell, M.; Fernandez Cellini, R.

    1958-01-01

    Because the great number of samples of various kinds receiving in the Chemical Division, minerals in the most part, for its complete analysis, a rapid spectrographic method has been developed. It permits the determination of the following elements with a semiquantitative character. Al, As, Ag, Au, B, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ga, Ge, Hf, Hn, In, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nb, P, Pb, Pt, Sb, Si, Sn, Sr, Ta, Ti, V, W, Y, Zn and Zr. (Author) 14 refs

  16. A chemical profiling strategy for semi-quantitative analysis of flavonoids in Ginkgo extracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Wang, An-Qi; Li, Xue-Jing; Fan, Xue; Yin, Shan-Shan; Lan, Ke

    2016-05-10

    Flavonoids analysis in herbal products is challenged by their vast chemical diversity. This work aimed to develop a chemical profiling strategy for the semi-quantification of flavonoids using extracts of Ginkgo biloba L. (EGB) as an example. The strategy was based on the principle that flavonoids in EGB have an almost equivalent molecular absorption coefficient at a fixed wavelength. As a result, the molecular-contents of flavonoids were able to be semi-quantitatively determined by the molecular-concentration calibration curves of common standards and recalculated as the mass-contents with the characterized molecular weight (MW). Twenty batches of EGB were subjected to HPLC-UV/DAD/MS fingerprinting analysis to test the feasibility and reliability of this strategy. The flavonoid peaks were distinguished from the other peaks with principle component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis of the normalized UV spectrometric dataset. Each flavonoid peak was subsequently tentatively identified by the MS data to ascertain their MW. It was highlighted that the flavonoids absorption at Band-II (240-280 nm) was more suitable for the semi-quantification purpose because of the less variation compared to that at Band-I (300-380 nm). The semi-quantification was therefore conducted at 254 nm. Beyond the qualitative comparison results acquired by common chemical profiling techniques, the semi-quantitative approach presented the detailed compositional information of flavonoids in EGB and demonstrated how the adulteration of one batch was achieved. The developed strategy was believed to be useful for the advanced analysis of herbal extracts with a high flavonoid content without laborious identification and isolation of individual components. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Semiquantitative analysis of corrosion products in iron channel by the X-ray diffraction technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bueno, C.R.E.; Varela, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    The corrosion in the us very important in the slag line region, but in others regions over and above this line there is a corrosion process still important. We have made a detailed mapping of phases present in seven different regions in the iron channel in three distinct positions. After the phases identifications, it was made a deconvolution of the diffractograms using Gaussian functions. The analysis of the relative intensity of each phase gave an idea for a semi-quantitative analysis and we have proposed a mechanism of the refractory corrosion. It was observed that the calcium oxide migrates by diffusion to different regions originating low melting point products like pseudo-wolastonite, anorthite and guelenite. (author)

  18. Human health impact of Salmonella contamination in imported soybean products: A semiquantitative risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Wingstrand, Anne; Brondsted, T.

    2006-01-01

    serotypes isolated from animal feed and/or food-producing animals based on their detection in humans; a semiquantitative ranking of serotypes by the apparent differences in their public health impact; and an estimate of the number of reported cases of human salmonellosis that can be attributed...... through the consumption of Danish pork and beef. We concluded that more than 90% of serotypes have the potential, if they occur in feedstuffs, for infecting humans via production animals or foods of animal origin....

  19. Reduced angiogenic factor expression in intrauterine fetal growth restriction using semiquantitative immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alahakoon, Thushari I; Zhang, Weiyi; Arbuckle, Susan; Zhang, Kewei; Lee, Vincent

    2018-05-01

    To localize, quantify and compare angiogenic factors, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), as well as their receptors fms-like tyrosine kinase receptor (Flt-1) and kinase insert domain receptor (KDR) in the placentas of normal pregnancy and complications of preeclampsia (PE), intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR) and PE + IUGR. In a prospective cross-sectional case-control study, 30 pregnant women between 24-40 weeks of gestation, were recruited into four clinical groups. Representative placental samples were stained for VEGF, PlGF, Flt-1 and KDR. Analysis was performed using semiquantitative methods and digital image analysis. The overall VEGF and Flt-1 were strongly expressed and did not show any conclusive difference in the expression between study groups. PlGF and KDR were significantly reduced in expression in the placentas from pregnancies complicated by IUGR compared with normal and preeclamptic pregnancies. The lack of PlGF and KDR may be a cause for the development of IUGR and may explain the loss of vasculature and villous architecture in IUGR. Automated digital image analysis software is a viable alternative method to the manual reading of placental immunohistochemical staining. © 2018 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  20. Qualitative and Semiquantitative Analysis of Doping Products Seized at the Swiss Border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Christina; Krug, Oliver; Kamber, Matthias; Thevis, Mario

    2017-05-12

    Substances developed for therapeutic use are also known to be misused by athletes as doping agents and, outside of regulated sport, for image-enhancement. This has generated a market for counterfeit doping substances. Counterfeit doping agents may be of poor pharmaceutical quality and therefore constitute health risks to consumers. This study aims to investigate the pharmaceutical quality of 1,190 doping products seized at the Swiss border. Swiss customs authorities seize incoming shipments potentially containing doping agents. Qualitative and semiquantitative analyses were performed in order to test for prohibited doping substances. The main analytical methods utilized for characterizing confiscated compounds were liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry, polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis with subsequent in-gel tryptic digestion and identification of peptidic compounds using nanoliquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, and electrochemiluminescence immuno assay. For 889 (75%) of the analyzed products, the label suggested the content of anabolic agents, for 146 samples (12%) peptide hormones or growth factors, and for 113 items (9%) antiestrogens, aromatase inhibitors or other metabolic modulators. For the majority of the investigated products, the pharmaceutical quality was an unsatisfactory standard: nonapproved substances were detected and less than 20% of the products contained the claimed substance in the respective amount. A comprehensive sample of confiscated doping products was analyzed, allowing for monitoring of developments regarding the use of doping substances in Switzerland and for anticipating future trends and challenges in sports drug testing. An alarming number of tested products was of substandard pharmaceutical quality.

  1. PIQMIe: a web server for semi-quantitative proteomics data management and analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzniar, Arnold; Kanaar, Roland

    2014-07-01

    We present the Proteomics Identifications and Quantitations Data Management and Integration Service or PIQMIe that aids in reliable and scalable data management, analysis and visualization of semi-quantitative mass spectrometry based proteomics experiments. PIQMIe readily integrates peptide and (non-redundant) protein identifications and quantitations from multiple experiments with additional biological information on the protein entries, and makes the linked data available in the form of a light-weight relational database, which enables dedicated data analyses (e.g. in R) and user-driven queries. Using the web interface, users are presented with a concise summary of their proteomics experiments in numerical and graphical forms, as well as with a searchable protein grid and interactive visualization tools to aid in the rapid assessment of the experiments and in the identification of proteins of interest. The web server not only provides data access through a web interface but also supports programmatic access through RESTful web service. The web server is available at http://piqmie.semiqprot-emc.cloudlet.sara.nl or http://www.bioinformatics.nl/piqmie. This website is free and open to all users and there is no login requirement. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  2. A semi-quantitative and thematic analysis of medical student attitudes towards M-Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Ben L; Kennedy, Iain; Hassanzadeh, Hadi; Sharma, Suneal; Frith, Gareth; Darling, Jonathan C

    2015-10-01

    Smartphone and mobile application technology have in recent years furthered the development of novel learning and assessment resources. 'MBChB Mobile' is a pioneering mobile learning (M-Learning) programme at University of Leeds, United Kingdom and provides all senior medical students with iPhone handsets complete with academic applications, assessment software and a virtual reflective environment. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of MBChB Mobile on student learning. Ethical approval was granted to invite fourth and fifth year medical students to participate in a semi-quantitative questionnaire: data were collected anonymously with informed consent and analysed where appropriate using chi-squared test of association. Qualitative data generated through focus group participation were subjected to both content and thematic analysis. A total of 278 of 519 (53.6%) invited participants responded. Overall, 72.6% of students agreed that MBChB Mobile enhanced their learning experience; however, this was significantly related to overall usage (P mobile technology proficiency (P mobile devices, and perceived patient acceptability. As one of the largest evaluative and only quantitative study of smartphone-assisted M-Learning in undergraduate medical education, MBChB Mobile suggests that smartphone and application technology enhances students' learning experience. Barriers to implementation may be addressed through the provision of tailored learning resources, along with user-defined support systems, and appropriate means of ensuring acceptability to patients. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alizai, Hamza [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, Department of Radiology, San Antonio, TX (United States); Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Hayashi, Daichi [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Yale University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Bridgeport Hospital, Bridgeport, CT (United States); Crema, Michel D. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Hospital do Coracao and Teleimagem, Department of Radiology, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Felson, David T. [Boston University School of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Research and Training Unit, Boston, MA (United States); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA (United States)

    2014-11-07

    Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available faor evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems. (orig.)

  4. An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alizai, Hamza; Roemer, Frank W.; Hayashi, Daichi; Crema, Michel D.; Felson, David T.; Guermazi, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available faor evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems. (orig.)

  5. Application of semiquantitative analysis of whole body bone imaging on distal femoral metaphysis osseous metastasis of neuroblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yang; Wang Huixiang; Zhou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the value of semiquantitative analysis of whole body bone imaging on distal femoral metaphysis osseous metastasis of neuroblastoma. Methods: Twenty-nine patients with confirmed neuroblastoma by pathological reports were divided into group of metastasis and group of no metastasis by bone marrow slides, X-ray, CT, MRI or clinical follow-up. Whole body bone imaging was performed pre-or postoperation. All cases were analysed by two methods: (1) Semi-quantitative analysis: Regions of interest on bilateral distal femoral metaphysic and middle of femoral were drawn, and their average counts were measured. The ratio of radioactivity of distal femoral metaphysic to middle of femoral was calculated; (2) Visual analysis:Bilateral distal femoral metaphysic metastasis were diagnosed by visual analysis according to whole body bone imaging. The differences between this two methods were compared. Results: There were differences of the ratio of radioactivity of distal femoral metaphysic to middle of femoral between group of metastasis and group of no metastasis (t =8.334, P<0.01), and there was no significant difference between t the two methods (χ 2 =0.68, P>0.05). The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of semiquantitative analysis in detecting osseous metastasis were 90.5% , 95.7% , 94.4% , 86.4% and 97.1% , while visual analysis were 81% , 100% , 95.6% , 100% and 94.5% . Conclusions: Radionuclide whole body bone imaging was of great importance in diagnosis of osseous metastasis of neuroblastoma. The diagnostic accuracy was improved by combination of visual analysis and semi-quantitative analysis. (authors)

  6. 1H MR spectroscopy of the basal ganglia in childhood: a semiquantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, W.W.M.; Zhao, H.; Berry, G.T.; Kaplan, P.; Gibson, J.; Kaplan, B.S.

    1998-01-01

    Proton MR spectra of the basal ganglia were obtained from 28 patients, 24 male and 14 female, median age 16.3 months (5 weeks to 31 years). They included 17 patients with normal MRI of the basal ganglia without metabolic disturbance (control group) and 11 patients with various metabolic diseases: one case each of high serum sodium and high serum osmolarity, cobalamin C deficiency, Leigh disease, Galloway-Mowat syndrome, Pelizaeus-Merzbacher disease, hemolytic-uremic syndrome and Wilson disease and two cases of Alagille syndrome and methylmalonic acidemia with abnormal MRI of the basal ganglia or blood or urine analysis (abnormal group). The MR spectrum was measured by using STEAM. The MR-visible water content of the region of interest was obtained. Levels of myoinositol, choline, creatine and N -acetylaspartate were measured using a semiquantitative approach, with absolute reference calibration. In the control group, there was a gradual drop of water content over the first year of life; N -acetylaspartate, creatine and myoinositol levels showed no significant change with age, in contrast to the occipital, parietal and cerebellar regions. Choline showed a gradual decrease for the first 2 years of life and then remained fairly constant. In the abnormal group the water content was not significantly different. N -Acetylaspartate was decreased in patients with high serum sodium and high serum osmolarity, cobalamin C deficiency, Leigh disease and one case of methylmalonic acidemia. Decreased creatine was also found in Leigh disease, and decreased choline in Galloway-Mowat syndrome and Wilson disease. Myoinositol was elevated in the patient with abnormally high serum sodium, and decreased in the hemolytic-uremic syndrome. (orig.)

  7. In situ semi-quantitative analysis of polluted soils by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismaël, Amina; Bousquet, Bruno; Michel-Le Pierrès, Karine; Travaillé, Grégoire; Canioni, Lionel; Roy, Stéphane

    2011-05-01

    Time-saving, low-cost analyses of soil contamination are required to ensure fast and efficient pollution removal and remedial operations. In this work, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been successfully applied to in situ analyses of polluted soils, providing direct semi-quantitative information about the extent of pollution. A field campaign has been carried out in Brittany (France) on a site presenting high levels of heavy metal concentrations. Results on iron as a major component as well as on lead and copper as minor components are reported. Soil samples were dried and prepared as pressed pellets to minimize the effects of moisture and density on the results. LIBS analyses were performed with a Nd:YAG laser operating at 1064 nm, 60 mJ per 10 ns pulse, at a repetition rate of 10 Hz with a diameter of 500 μm on the sample surface. Good correlations were obtained between the LIBS signals and the values of concentrations deduced from inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). This result proves that LIBS is an efficient method for optimizing sampling operations. Indeed, "LIBS maps" were established directly on-site, providing valuable assistance in optimizing the selection of the most relevant samples for future expensive and time-consuming laboratory analysis and avoiding useless analyses of very similar samples. Finally, it is emphasized that in situ LIBS is not described here as an alternative quantitative analytical method to the usual laboratory measurements but simply as an efficient time-saving tool to optimize sampling operations and to drastically reduce the number of soil samples to be analyzed, thus reducing costs. The detection limits of 200 ppm for lead and 80 ppm for copper reported here are compatible with the thresholds of toxicity; thus, this in situ LIBS campaign was fully validated for these two elements. Consequently, further experiments are planned to extend this study to other chemical elements and other

  8. Non-invasive differentiation of pancreatic lesions: is analysis of FDG kinetics superior to semiquantitative uptake value analysis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitzsche, E.U.; Hoegerle, S.; Mix, M.; Brink, I.; Otte, A.; Moser, E.

    2002-01-01

    The diagnostic utility of fluorine-18 2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) for the non-invasive differentiation of focal pancreatic lesions originating from cancer or chronic pancreatitis by combined visual image interpretation and semiquantitative uptake value analysis has been documented. However, in clinical routine some misdiagnosis is still observed. This is because there is potential overlap between the semiquantitative uptake values obtained for active inflammatory lesions and cancer. Therefore, this prospective study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that analysis of dynamic kinetics of focal pancreatic lesions based on FDG PET may more accurately determine the benign or malignant nature of such lesions. Thirty patients (56±17 years) were studied dynamically with FDG PET for a period of 60-90 min. Patients were assigned to one of four groups: control, acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis or pancreatic cancer. Two observers, blinded to the clinical data, analysed the time-activity curves of FDG kinetics based on region of interest analysis. The diagnosis predicted by FDG PET was compared with the result of histological examination of the surgical specimen. Analysis of FDG kinetics revealed significant differences in the shape of the time-activity curve for controls, pancreatic cancer and inflammatory disease. Surprisingly, there was no significant difference in the time-activity curve shape for chronic pancreatitis and acute pancreatitis; this is, however, not a clinical issue. Furthermore, acquisition time (60 min vs 90 min) did not affect interpretation of the time-activity curve, so that scanning time may be regularly shortened to 60 min. Interobserver agreement was 1. Based on these findings, non-invasive differentiation between pancreatic cancer and chronic pancreatitis was correctly predicted in all cases, as confirmed by histology. In addition, the specificity was increased compared with that obtained from standardised

  9. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  10. Semi-quantitative analysis of salivary gland scintigraphy in Sjögren's syndrome diagnosis: a first-line tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angusti, Tiziana; Pilati, Emanuela; Parente, Antonella; Carignola, Renato; Manfredi, Matteo; Cauda, Simona; Pizzigati, Elena; Dubreuil, Julien; Giammarile, Francesco; Podio, Valerio; Skanjeti, Andrea

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was the assessment of semi-quantified salivary gland dynamic scintigraphy (SGdS) parameters independently and in an integrated way in order to predict primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). Forty-six consecutive patients (41 females; age 61 ± 11 years) with sicca syndrome were studied by SGdS after injection of 200 MBq of pertechnetate. In sixteen patients, pSS was diagnosed, according to American-European Consensus Group criteria (AECGc). Semi-quantitative parameters (uptake (UP) and excretion fraction (EF)) were obtained for each gland. ROC curves were used to determine the best cut-off value. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to estimate the accuracy of each semi-quantitative analysis. To assess the correlation between scintigraphic results and disease severity, semi-quantitative parameters were plotted versus Sjögren's syndrome disease activity index (ESSDAI). A nomogram was built to perform an integrated evaluation of all the scintigraphic semi-quantitative data. Both UP and EF of salivary glands were significantly lower in pSS patients compared to those in non-pSS (p quantitative parameters and ESSDAI. The proposed nomogram accuracy was 87%. SGdS is an accurate and reproducible tool for the diagnosis of pSS. ESSDAI was not shown to be correlated with SGdS data. SGdS should be the first-line imaging technique in patients with suspected pSS.

  11. Diagnostic value of (99m)Tc-3PRGD2 scintimammography for differentiation of malignant from benign breast lesions: Comparison of visual and semi-quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qianqian; Xie, Qian; Zhao, Min; Chen, Bin; Gao, Shi; Zhang, Haishan; Xing, Hua; Ma, Qingjie

    2015-01-01

    To compare the diagnostic value of visual and semi-quantitative analysis of technetium-99m-poly-ethylene glycol, 4-arginine-glycine-aspartic acid ((99m)Tc-3PRGD2) scintimammography (SMG) for better differentiation of benign from malignant breast masses, and also investigate the incremental role of semi-quantitative index of SMG. A total of 72 patients with breast lesions were included in the study. Technetium-99m-3PRGD2 SMG was performed with single photon emission computed tomography (SPET) at 60 min after intravenous injection of 749 ± 86MBq of the radiotracer. Images were evaluated by visual interpretation and semi-quantitative indices of tumor to non-tumor (T/N) ratios, which were compared with pathology results. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses were performed to determine the optimal visual grade, to calculate cut-off values of semi-quantitative indices, and to compare visual and semi-quantitative diagnostic values. Among the 72 patients, 89 lesions were confirmed by histopathology after fine needle aspiration biopsy or surgery, 48 malignant and 41 benign lesions. The mean T/N ratio of (99m)Tc-3PRGD2 SMG in malignant lesions was significantly higher than that in benign lesions (Pvalue for the detection of primary breast cancer, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 81.3%, 70.7%, and 76.4%, respectively. When a T/N ratio of 2.01 was used as cut-off value, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 79.2%, 75.6%, and 77.5%, respectively. According to ROC analysis, the area under the curve for semi-quantitative analysis was higher than that for visual analysis, but the statistical difference was not significant (P=0.372). Compared with visual analysis or semi-quantitative analysis alone, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of visual analysis combined with semi-quantitative analysis in diagnosing primary breast cancer were higher, being: 87.5%, 82.9%, and 85.4%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.891. Results of

  12. Assessment of aortitis by semiquantitative analysis of 180-min {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT acquisition images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Rodriguez, Isabel [University of Cantabria, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Marques de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander (Spain); Hospital Universitario Marques de Valdecilla, S. Medicina Nuclear, Santander (Spain); Martinez-Amador, N.; Banzo, I.; Quirce, R.; Jimenez-Bonilla, J.; Arcocha-Torres, M. de; Ibanez-Bravo, S.; Lavado-Perez, C.; Bravo-Ferrer, Z.; Carril, J.M. [University of Cantabria, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Marques de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander (Spain); Blanco, R.; Gonzalez-Gay, M.A. [University of Cantabria, Department of Rheumatology, Marques de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander (Spain)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution of semiquantitative analysis of 180-min {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/CT images for the assessment of aortitis in cases of suspected large vessel vasculitis (LVV) and to establish a threshold index for application in the clinical setting. This prospective study included 43 patients (mean age 67.5 ± 12.9 years) with suspicion of LVV (25 with a final diagnosis of aortitis). {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scan was acquired 180 min after injection of 7 MBq/kg of {sup 18}F-FDG. A semiquantitative analysis was performed calculating the aortic wall maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) (T), the lumen SUV{sub max} (B) and the target to background ratio (TBR). These results were also compared with those obtained in a control population. The mean aortic wall SUV{sub max} was 2.00 ± 0.62 for patients with aortitis and 1.45 ± 0.31 for patients without aortitis (p < 0.0001). The TBR was 1.66 ± 0.26 for patients with aortitis and 1.24 ± 0.08 for patients without aortitis (p < 0.0001). The differences were also statistically significant when the patients with aortitis and controls were compared. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that the area under the curve was greater for the TBR than for the aortic wall SUV{sub max} (0.997 vs 0.871). The highest sensitivity and specificity was obtained for a TBR of 1.34 (sensitivity 100 %, specificity 94.4 %). Semiquantitative analysis of PET/CT images acquired 180 min after {sup 18}F-FDG injection and the TBR index of 1.34 show very high accuracy and, therefore, are strongly recommended for the diagnosis of aortitis in the clinical setting. (orig.)

  13. {sup 18}F-FDG metabolism in a rat model of chronic infarction. A 17-sector semiquantitative analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penuelas, I. [Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain). Dept. of Nuclear Medicine; MicroPET Research Unit CIMA-CUN, Pamplona (Spain); Abizanda, G.; Mazo, M.; Prosper, F. [Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain). Hematology and Cell Therapy Service; Navarra Univ., Pamplona (Spain). Foundation for Applied Medical Research; Garcia-Velloso, M.J.; Marti-Climent, J.M.; Richter, J.A. [Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain). Dept. of Nuclear Medicine; Gavira, J.J.; Barba, J. [Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain). Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery; Ecay, M.; Collantes, M. [MicroPET Research Unit CIMA-CUN, Pamplona (Spain); Garcia de Jalon, J.A.; Garcia-Rodriguez, A. [Zaragoza Univ. (Spain). Dept. of Animal Pathology

    2007-07-01

    Strategies to establish the functional benefit of cell therapy in cardiac regeneration and the potential mechanism are needed. Aims: Development of a semi-quantitative method for non invasive assessment of cardiac viability and function in a rat model of myocardial infarction (MI) based on the use of microPET. Animals, methods: Ten rats were subjected to myocardial imaging 2, 7, 14, 30, 60 and 90 days after left coronary artery ligation. Intravenous {sup 18}F-fluoro-2-deoxy-2-D-glucose ({sup 18}F-FDG) was administered and regional {sup 18}F activity concentrations per unit area were measured in 17 regions of interest (ROIs) drawn on cardiac polar maps. By comparing the differences in {sup 18}F uptake between baseline and each of the follow up time points, parametric polar maps of statistical significance (PPMSS) were calculated. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was blindly assessed echocardiographically. All animals were sacrificed for histopathological analysis after 90 days. Results: The diagnostic quality of {sup 18}F-FDG microPET images was excellent. PPMSS demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in {sup 18}F concentrations as early as 48 hours after MI in 4 of the 17 ROIs (segments 7, 13, 16 and 17; p <0.05) that persisted throughout the study. Semi-quantitative analysis of {sup 18}F-FDG uptake correlated with echocardiographic decrease in LVEF (p <0.001). Conclusion: The use of PPMSS based on 18F-FDG-microPET provides valuable semi-quantitative information of heart glucose metabolism allowing for non-invasive follow up thus representing a useful strategy for assessment of novel therapies in cardiac regeneration. (orig.)

  14. Assessment of left ventricular function: comparison between radionuclide angiography and semiquantitative two-dimensional echocardiographic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottsauner-Wolf, M.; Schedlmayer-Duit, J.; Porenta, G.; Gwechenberger, M.; Huber, K.; Glogar, D.; Probst, P.; Sochor, H.

    1996-01-01

    Measurement of global left ventricular function is important in the follow-up of cardiac patients and is a good prognostic indicator in acute cardiac situations. We compared quantitative measurements of global left ventricular function made with radionuclide angiography (RNA) and contrast cardiac ventriculography (CVG) to visual semiquantitative estimates from two-dimensional echocardiographic images (2D-echo). Three hundred and thirty-nine consecutive patients who underwent RNA were assessed with 2D-echo within 3 months. In addition, 92 of these patients also underwent CVG (correlation of ejection fraction between CVG and RNA: r=0.82; P<0.0001). The RNA mean ejection fractions in the four 2D-echo groups (0=normal, 1=slightly, 2=moderate, or 3=severe reduced left ventricular function) differed markedly (P<0.0001); however, there was overlapping among the groups (2D-echo score/RNA ejection fraction: 0=57.3%±12.8%; 1=46.0%±12.9%; 2=29.6%± 12.2%; and 3=24.6%±11.5%) and the difference between 2D-echo scores 2 and 3 was not significant. 2D-echo showed a good concordance in RNA classes (0=≥505; 1=35%-49%; 2=21%-34%; and 3=≤20% ejection fraction) 0 (133/166; 80%) and 3 (18/30; 60%) but low concordance in classes 1 (27/82; 33%) and 2 (21/61; 34%). For accurate assessment of global left ventricular ejection fraction, visual semiquantitative judgement of a 2D echocardiographic image is limited in comparison to CVG or RNA, especially in patients with a slight or moderate reduction in left ventricular ejection fraction. (orig.). With 2 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Model-based, semiquantitative and time intensity curve shape analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI: a comparison in patients undergoing antiangiogenic treatment for recurrent glioma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lavini, Cristina; Verhoeff, Joost J. C.; Majoie, Charles B.; Stalpers, Lukas J. A.; Richel, Dick J.; Maas, Mario

    2011-01-01

    To compare time intensity curve (TIC)-shape analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) data with model-based analysis and semiquantitative analysis in patients with high-grade glioma treated with the antiangiogenic drug bevacizumab. Fifteen patients had a pretreatment

  16. An atlas of histone deacetylase expression in breast cancer: fluorescence methodology for comparative semi-quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ververis, Katherine; Karagiannis, Tom C

    2012-01-01

    The histone deacetylase inhibitors, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (Vorinostat, Zolinza™) and depsipeptide (Romidepsin, Istodax™) have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of refractory cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Numerous histone deacetylase inhibitors are currently undergoing clinical trials, predominantly in combination with other cancer modalities, for the treatment of various haematological and solid malignancies. Most of the traditional compounds are known as broad-spectrum or pan-histone deacetylase inhibitors, possessing activity against a number of the 11 metal-dependent enzymes. One of the main questions in the field is whether class- or isoform-specific compounds would offer a therapeutic benefit compared to broad-spectrum inhibitors. Therefore, analysis of the relative expression of the different histone deacetylase enzymes in cancer cells and tissues is important to determine whether there are specific targets. We used a panel of antibodies directed against the 11 known mammalian histone deacetylases to determine expression levels in MCF7 breast cancer cells and in tissue representative of invasive ductal cell carcinoma and ductal carcinoma in situ. Firstly, we utilized a semi-quantitative method based on immunofluorescence staining to examine expression of the different histone deacetylases in MCF7 cells. Our findings indicate high expression levels of HDAC1, 3 and 6 in accordance with findings from others using RT-PCR and immunoblotting. Following validation of our approach we examined the expression of the different isoforms in representative control and breast cancer tissue. In general, our findings indicate higher expression of class I histone deacetylases compared to class II enzymes in breast cancer tissue. Analysis of individual cancer cells in the same tissue indicated marked heterogeneity in the expression of most class I enzymes indicating potential complications with the use of class- or isoform

  17. Comparative measurement of collagen bundle orientation by Fourier analysis and semiquantitative evaluation: reliability and agreement in Masson's trichrome, Picrosirius red and confocal microscopy techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-Garcés, V; Harvat, M; Molina Aguilar, P; Ferrández Izquierdo, A; Ruiz-Saurí, A

    2017-08-01

    Measurement of collagen bundle orientation in histopathological samples is a widely used and useful technique in many research and clinical scenarios. Fourier analysis is the preferred method for performing this measurement, but the most appropriate staining and microscopy technique remains unclear. Some authors advocate the use of Haematoxylin-Eosin (H&E) and confocal microscopy, but there are no studies comparing this technique with other classical collagen stainings. In our study, 46 human skin samples were collected, processed for histological analysis and stained with Masson's trichrome, Picrosirius red and H&E. Five microphotographs of the reticular dermis were taken with a 200× magnification with light microscopy, polarized microscopy and confocal microscopy, respectively. Two independent observers measured collagen bundle orientation with semiautomated Fourier analysis with the Image-Pro Plus 7.0 software and three independent observers performed a semiquantitative evaluation of the same parameter. The average orientation for each case was calculated with the values of the five pictures. We analyzed the interrater reliability, the consistency between Fourier analysis and average semiquantitative evaluation and the consistency between measurements in Masson's trichrome, Picrosirius red and H&E-confocal. Statistical analysis for reliability and agreement was performed with the SPSS 22.0 software and consisted of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Bland-Altman plots and limits of agreement and coefficient of variation. Interrater reliability was almost perfect (ICC > 0.8) with all three histological and microscopy techniques and always superior in Fourier analysis than in average semiquantitative evaluation. Measurements were consistent between Fourier analysis by one observer and average semiquantitative evaluation by three observers, with an almost perfect agreement with Masson's trichrome and Picrosirius red techniques (ICC > 0.8) and a strong

  18. Selection of the regions of interest (SRI) in the SPECT semi-quantitative analysis of central dopaminergic receptors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baulieu, J.L.; Prunier-Levilion, C.; Tranquart, F.; Ribeiro, M.J.; Chartier, J.R.; Guilloteau, D.; Autret, A.; Besnard, J.C.; Bekhechi, D.; Chossat, F.

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this work was to compare different types of SRIs used in the SPECT semi-quantitative analysis of central dopaminergic receptors. The SPECT with 123 I iodolisuride (Cis bio international) was carried out in the same center with a Helix - Elscint double head camera with 'fan beam', one hour after injection of 123 I iodolisuride (190 ± 31 MBq). In 8 patients afflicted with Parkinson's disease (group 1) and 9 patients presenting an extra-pyramidal syndrome by striatal stretching (group 2), two approaches of SRI tracing were undertaken: 1. Geometrical and standard (circles, ellipses, rectangles) SRIs; 2. Anatomical and individual SRIs based on TDM and perfusion scintigraphy. The SRIs were placed on the entire striatum, the head of cauda nucleus, putamen, thalamus, frontal, occipital cortex and cerebellum. In total, for each patient, 31 ratios were calculated of the striatal activity and the activity of a references zone. The discriminative value of the ratios was evaluated by the p value of comparison between groups 1 and 2. A correlation has been searched for between the ratios taken 2 by 2. The most discriminative ratios were: cauda/occipital, cauda/frontal, striatum/occipital based on geometrical standard SRIs (p 0.001, p = 0.002, p = 0.003, respectively). A close correlation has been found between the ratios with occipital and cerebellar references (r 2 0.71) but not between the ratios with frontal or occipital reference, or frontal and cerebellum reference. In the employed conditions, the geometrical tracing of the SRIs is preferable as against an anatomic tracing. The occipital cortex is the best reference while the frontal activity can not be retained as reference. The cauda/occipital ratios allow a very good discrimination between the Parkinson's disease and other extra pyramidal syndromes investigated by 123 I iodolisuride SPECT

  19. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  20. Semi-Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals and Evaluation of Spirometry Indices on the Staff of Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Dazi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Petrochemical industry is an important industry in the economic development of the country that causes employees have exposure with several kinds of contamination. The aim of this study was Semi-quantitative assessment of the health risk of occupational exposure to chemical materials and investigation of spirometry indices between employees of petrochemical industry. Material & Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in one of the petrochemical industry complex in a special area of Assaluyeh in Iran in 2016. Health risk assessment of exposure to harmful chemical agents was performed in all of units and during three stages (identification of harmful material, determination of hazard rate of the chemical material, exposure rate and estimate of risk rate. Spirometry indices were measured using spirometry. Results: The results of chemical materials risk assessment showed that Raffinate in Butadiene unit has identified the highest amount of risk rank among 27 chemical materials in investigated units. In comparison with spirometry indices in Olefine unit between age with FVC parameter and history work with FVC and FEV1 parameters has observed a significant and negative correlation (P<0.05. Conclusion: The results of risk assessment in all of the petrochemical units showed that 48.14% of materials were at low risk level, 29.62% medium risk, 18.51% high risk and 3.7% had very high risk level. The variables affecting on spirometry employees such as age and work experience play an important role in reducing the pulmonary function tests in exposed subjects.

  1. 18F-FDG PET for detecting recurrent head and neck cancer, local lymph node involvement and distant metastases. Comparison of qualitative visual and semiquantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, M.; Schmalenbach, M.; Theissen, P.; Dietlein, M.; Eschner, W.; Schicha, H.; Jungehuelsing, M.; Schroeder, U.; Stennert, E.

    2004-01-01

    Aim: Assessment of the clinical value of 18 F-FDG-PET for detection of recurrent head and neck cancer, local lymph node involvement and distant metastases comparing a qualitative visual with a semiquantitative analysis (SUV values). Patients, methods: Retrospective evaluation of 73 18 F-FDG PET studies in 55 patients by use of a four-step qualitative visual grading system and calculation of standard uptake values in pathological lesions. Calculation of SUV values in normal regions for generating a map of physiological 18 F-FDG distribution. Correlation to histopathological findings and clinical follow-up. Results: 1. Qualitative visual analysis of 18 F-FDG PET studies: a) local recurrence sensitivity 79%, specificity 97%, positive predictive value 95%, negative predictive value 85%, and diagnostic accuracy 89%; b) local metastatic lymph nodes 100%, 95%, 85%, 100%, 96%; c) distant metastases 100%, 98%, 86%, 100%, 98%, respectively. 2. Semiquantitative analysis had only little incremental, non-significant value in comparison to qualitative visual analysis for the detection of a local recurrence in two patients: a) local recurrence: sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 88%, and diagnostic accuracy 93%; b) local metastatic lymph nodes or c) distant metastases did not change in comparison to qualitative visual analysis. Conclusion: 18 F-FDG PET is an effective tool for re-staging of patients with suspected recurrence after therapy for head and neck cancer. (orig.)

  2. Semiquantitative spectrographic analysis of nuclear interest minerals and of various products; Analisis espectrografico semicuantitativo de minerales de interes nuclear y productos diversos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez Gonzalez, F; Roca Adell, M; Fernandez Cellini, R

    1958-07-01

    Because the great number of samples of various kinds receiving in the Chemical Division, minerals in the most part, for its complete analysis, a rapid spectrographic method has been developed. It permits the determination of the following elements with a semiquantitative character. Al, As, Ag, Au, B, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ga, Ge, Hf, Hn, In, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nb, P, Pb, Pt, Sb, Si, Sn, Sr, Ta, Ti, V, W, Y, Zn and Zr. (Author) 14 refs.

  3. Short communication: Semiquantitative assessment of 99mTc-EDDA/HYNIC-TOC scintigraphy in differentiation of solitary pulmonary nodules--a complementary role to visual analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Płachcińska, Anna; Mikołajczak, Renata; Kozak, Józef; Rzeszutek, Katarzyna; Kuśmierek, Jacek

    2006-02-01

    The aim of this study was the assessment of a value of a semiquantitative analysis of scintigrams obtained with (99m)Tc-EDDA/HYNIC-TOC as a radiopharmaceutical (RPH) in differential diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs), as a method complementary to visual evaluation of scintigrams. Scintigraphic images of 59 patients (33 males and 26 females between 34 and 78 years of age, mean value, 57) with SPN on chest radiographs (39 malignant and 20 benign) were retrospectively assessed semiquantitatively. Visual scintigram analysis was made earlier, prospectively. Nodule diameters ranged from 1 to 4 (mean 2.2) cm. A single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) acquisition was performed at 2-4 hours after administration of 740 to 925 MBq of a RPH. Verification of scintigraphic results was based on a pathological examination of tumor samples (histopathology or cytology) and, in some cases, on bacteriological studies. As an additional criterion for tumor benignity, its stable size in a time interval not shorter than 3 years was accepted. A simple, semiquantitative method for assessment of radiopharmaceutical uptake in SPNs was used, based on "count sample" taken from tumor center (T) in relation to radiopharmaceutical concentration in the background (B) measured in the contralateral lung. A criterion for optimal differentiation between malignant and benign nodules (T/B ratio threshold value) was introduced, based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Additionally, a value of T/B ratio was searched for, excluding tumor benignity with high probability. Visual analysis of scintigrams revealed enhanced uptake of RPH at 36 of 39 (92%) sites, corresponding to locations of malignant nodules (including 34 of 35-97% cases of lung cancer). In 13 of 20 (65%) benign nodules, true negative results were obtained. Accuracy of the method equalled 83%. Optimal differentiation between malignant and benign nodules was found for a value of a T/B ratio amounting to 2

  4. Correlation between podoplanin expression and extracapsular spread in squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity using subjective immunoreactivity scores and semiquantitative image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mermod, Maxime; Bongiovanni, Massimo; Petrova, Tatiana V; Dubikovskaya, Elena A; Simon, Christian; Tolstonog, Genrich; Monnier, Yan

    2017-01-01

    The correlation between podoplanin expression and extracapsular spread in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has never been reported. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of podoplanin expression for this parameter. Subjective immunoreactivity scores and semiquantitative image analysis of podoplanin expression were performed in 67 patients with primary oral squamous cell carcinoma and in their corresponding lymph nodes. Neck classification showed 34 cases (51%) of pN0 and 33 cases (49%) of pN+. Correlation between the levels of podoplanin expression and the histopathological data was established. In lymph nodes, a high level of podoplanin expression correlated with the presence of extracapsular spread by multivariate analysis (p = .03). A strong correlation between subjective and semiquantitative image analysis was observed (r = 0.77; p < .001). A high level of podoplanin expression in lymph node metastases of oral squamous cell carcinoma is independently associated with extracapsular spread. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Head Neck 39: 98-108, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  6. Development of an indoor air quality checklist for risk assessment of indoor air pollutants by semiquantitative score in nonindustrial workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazwan AI

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available AI Syazwan1, B Mohd Rafee1, Juahir Hafizan2, AZF Azman1, AM Nizar3, Z Izwyn4, AA Muhaimin5, MA Syafiq Yunos6, AR Anita1, J Muhamad Hanafiah1, MS Shaharuddin1, A Mohd Ibthisham7, Mohd Hasmadi Ismail8, MN Mohamad Azhar1, HS Azizan1, I Zulfadhli9, J Othman101Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 2Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 3Pharmacology Unit, Department of Human Anatomy, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 4Department of Therapy and Rehabilitation, Faculty of Health Science and Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor, Malaysia; 5Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 6Plant Assessment Technology (PAT, Industrial Technology Division (BTI, Malaysian Nuclear Agency (Nuklear Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Malaysia; 7Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia; 8Department of Forest Production, Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 9Faculty of Built Environment and Architect, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia; 10Department of Counsellor Education and Counselling Psychology (DCECP, Faculty of Educational Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, MalaysiaBackground: To meet the current diversified health needs in workplaces, especially in nonindustrial workplaces in developing countries, an indoor air quality (IAQ component of a participatory occupational safety and health survey should be included.Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and suggest a multidisciplinary, integrated IAQ checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants. This IAQ checklist proposed to support

  7. Long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse according to high-risk human papillomavirus genotype and semi-quantitative viral load among 33,288 women with normal cervical cytology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2015-01-01

    with single hrHPV infections. The cohort was followed in a nationwide pathology register for up to 11.5 years. In women aged ≥30 years at baseline, the 8-year absolute risk for CIN3+ following baseline detection of HPV16 was 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.0-25.6%). The corresponding risks for HPV18......In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotype and semi-quantitative viral load at baseline among 33,288 women aged 14-90 years with normal baseline cytology. During...... 2002-2005, residual liquid-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark. Samples were HPV-tested with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and genotyped with INNO-LiPA. Semi-quantitative viral load was measured by HC2 relative light units in women...

  8. Semi-quantitative analysis of perfusion of Brodmann areas in the differential diagnosis of cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease, fronto-temporal dementia and mild cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranfaglia, Cristina; Palumbo, Barbara; Siepi, Donatella; Sinzinger, Helmut; Parnetti, Lucilla

    2009-01-01

    Different perfusion defects reflect neurological damage characteristics of different kinds of dementia. Our aim was to investigate the role of brain single photon emission tomography (SPET) with semiquantitative analysis of Brodmann areas in dementia, by technetium-99m - hexamethyl-propylenamine- oxime ((99m)Tc-HMPAO) brain SPET with semiquantitative analysis of Brodmann areas in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We studied 75 patients, 25 with AD (NiNCDS ADRDA criteria), 25 with FTD (Lund and Manchester criteria), 25 with MCI (EADC criteria). After i.v. injection of 740MBq of (99m)Tc-HMPAO, each patient underwent brain SPET. A software application was used able to map the SPET brain image to a stereotaxic atlas (Talairach), providing an affine co-registration by blocks of data defined in the Talairach space. A normal database calculating voxel by voxel the mean and the standard deviation of the measured values was built. Functional SPET data of 3D regions of interest (ROI) of predefined Brodmann's area templates were compared with those of a database of healthy subjects of the same age and gender. Mean values obtained in the Brodmann area ROI in the different groups of patients studied were evaluated. Our results showed that different Brodmann areas were significantly impaired in the different categories of dementia subjects. Both areas 37 (temporal gyrus) and 39 (angular gyrus) of AD patients (mean+/-SD: 37L= -1.6+/-1.0; 37R= -1.5+/-1.1; 39L= -2.3+/-1.3; 39R= -1.9+/-1.2) showed significant hypoperfusion (Pareas 40 (supramarginal gyrus) (40L= -2.6+/-1.0; 40R= -2.3+/-1.1) with respect to MCI patients (40L= -1.8+/-0.9; 40R= -1.7+/-1.2). Finally, FTD patients showed significant hypoperfusion (Pareas 47 (frontal association cortex) (47L= -1.8+/-0.8; 47R= -1.1+/-0.8) in comparison with MCI subjects (47L= -1.2+/-0.9; 47R= -0.9+/-0.9). In conclusion, our results suggest that semiquantitative

  9. Quantum dots-based lateral flow immunoassay combined with image analysis for semiquantitative detection of IgE antibody to mite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Y

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Yan Zhao,1,* Qiang Zhang,2,* Qingfeng Meng,3 Fenglian Wu,4 Lihua Zhang,1 Yao Tang,1 Yuanyuan Guan,1 Lixin An1 1Department of Allergy, The First Affiliated Hospital, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, 2Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The Affiliated Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital, Qingdao University, Yantai, 3Department of Ophthalmology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, 4Department of Burn and Plastic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Semiquantitative and rapid detection of specific IgE (sIgE with well clinical relevance to house dust mite (HDM are promising for prevalence rhinitis and asthma patients due to the increasing air pollution. However, the conventional IgE measurement systems are time-consuming, complicated and require special instruments. Herein, we overcome the above limitations of sIgE to HDM detection system by developing a quantum dot nanobeads-based lateral flow immunoassay and an image analysis procedure. The proposed detection system could semiquantitatively measure the IgE in a linear range of 0.2–10 U/mL. Moreover, there is a well correlation between the developed detection system and the clinical symptoms by a comparison study using 56 positive patients’ sera and 40 healthy control sera. The proposed detection system is simple, robust and easy-to-use and promising for in home test. Keywords: lateral flow immunoassay, quantum dots, house dust mite, IgE 

  10. Multivariate data analysis as a semi-quantitative tool for interpretive evaluation of comparability or equivalence of aerodynamic particle size distribution profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Shuai; Hickey, Anthony J

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate the performance of multivariate data analysis, especially orthogonal partial least square (OPLS) analysis, as a semi-quantitative tool to evaluate the comparability or equivalence of aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD) profiles of orally inhaled and nasal drug products (OINDP). Monte Carlo simulation was employed to reconstitute APSD profiles based on 55 realistic scenarios proposed by the Product Quality Research Institute (PQRI) working group. OPLS analyses with different data pretreatment methods were performed on each of the reconstituted profiles. Compared to unit-variance scaling, equivalence determined based on OPLS analysis with Pareto scaling was shown to be more consistent with the working group assessment. Chi-square statistics was employed to compare the performance of OPLS analysis (Pareto scaling) with that of the combination test (i.e., chi-square ratio statistics and population bioequivalence test for impactor-sized mass) in terms of achieving greater consistency with the working group evaluation. A p value of 0.036 suggested that OPLS analysis with Pareto scaling may be more predictive than the combination test with respect to consistency. Furthermore, OPLS analysis may also be employed to analyze part of the APSD profiles that contribute to the calculation of the mass median aerodynamic diameter. Our results show that OPLS analysis performed on partial deposition sites do not interfere with the performance on all deposition sites.

  11. Development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for evaluating environmental threat posed by the three first EU watch-list pharmaceuticals to urban wastewater treatment plants: An Irish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahar, Alexandre; Tiedeken, Erin Jo; Clifford, Eoghan; Cummins, Enda; Rowan, Neil

    2017-12-15

    Contamination of receiving waters with pharmaceutical compounds is of pressing concern. This constitutes the first study to report on the development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment (RA) model for evaluating the environmental threat posed by three EU watch list pharmaceutical compounds namely, diclofenac, 17-beta-estradiol and 17-alpha-ethinylestradiol, to aquatic ecosystems using Irish data as a case study. This RA model adopts the Irish Environmental Protection Agency Source-Pathway-Receptor concept to define relevant parameters for calculating low, medium or high risk score for each agglomeration of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), which include catchment, treatments, operational and management factors. This RA model may potentially be used on a national scale to (i) identify WWTPs that pose a particular risk as regards releasing disproportionally high levels of these pharmaceutical compounds, and (ii) help identify priority locations for introducing or upgrading control measures (e.g. tertiary treatment, source reduction). To assess risks for these substances of emerging concern, the model was applied to 16 urban WWTPs located in different regions in Ireland that were scored for the three different compounds and ranked as low, medium or high risk. As a validation proxy, this case study used limited monitoring data recorded at some these plants receiving waters. It is envisaged that this semi-quantitative RA approach may aid other EU countries investigate and screen for potential risks where limited measured or predicted environmental pollutant concentrations and/or hydrological data are available. This model is semi-quantitative, as other factors such as influence of climate change and drug usage or prescription data will need to be considered in a future point for estimating and predicting risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  13. VIBA-Lab 3.0: Computer program for simulation and semi-quantitative analysis of PIXE and RBS spectra and 2D elemental maps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlić, Ivica; Mekterović, Darko [Department of Physics, University of Rijeka, Radmile Matejčić 2, 51000 Rijeka (Croatia); Mekterović, Igor [Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb (Croatia); Ivošević, Tatjana [Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka, Vukovarska 58, HR-51000 Rijeka (Croatia)

    2015-11-15

    VIBA-Lab is a computer program originally developed by the author and co-workers at the National University of Singapore (NUS) as an interactive software package for simulation of Particle Induced X-ray Emission and Rutherford Backscattering Spectra. The original program is redeveloped to a VIBA-Lab 3.0 in which the user can perform semi-quantitative analysis by comparing simulated and measured spectra as well as simulate 2D elemental maps for a given 3D sample composition. The latest version has a new and more versatile user interface. It also has the latest data set of fundamental parameters such as Coster–Kronig transition rates, fluorescence yields, mass absorption coefficients and ionization cross sections for K and L lines in a wider energy range than the original program. Our short-term plan is to introduce routine for quantitative analysis for multiple PIXE and XRF excitations. VIBA-Lab is an excellent teaching tool for students and researchers in using PIXE and RBS techniques. At the same time the program helps when planning an experiment and when optimizing experimental parameters such as incident ions, their energy, detector specifications, filters, geometry, etc. By “running” a virtual experiment the user can test various scenarios until the optimal PIXE and BS spectra are obtained and in this way save a lot of expensive machine time.

  14. VIBA-Lab 3.0: Computer program for simulation and semi-quantitative analysis of PIXE and RBS spectra and 2D elemental maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlić, Ivica; Mekterović, Darko; Mekterović, Igor; Ivošević, Tatjana

    2015-01-01

    VIBA-Lab is a computer program originally developed by the author and co-workers at the National University of Singapore (NUS) as an interactive software package for simulation of Particle Induced X-ray Emission and Rutherford Backscattering Spectra. The original program is redeveloped to a VIBA-Lab 3.0 in which the user can perform semi-quantitative analysis by comparing simulated and measured spectra as well as simulate 2D elemental maps for a given 3D sample composition. The latest version has a new and more versatile user interface. It also has the latest data set of fundamental parameters such as Coster–Kronig transition rates, fluorescence yields, mass absorption coefficients and ionization cross sections for K and L lines in a wider energy range than the original program. Our short-term plan is to introduce routine for quantitative analysis for multiple PIXE and XRF excitations. VIBA-Lab is an excellent teaching tool for students and researchers in using PIXE and RBS techniques. At the same time the program helps when planning an experiment and when optimizing experimental parameters such as incident ions, their energy, detector specifications, filters, geometry, etc. By “running” a virtual experiment the user can test various scenarios until the optimal PIXE and BS spectra are obtained and in this way save a lot of expensive machine time.

  15. VIBA-Lab 3.0: Computer program for simulation and semi-quantitative analysis of PIXE and RBS spectra and 2D elemental maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlić, Ivica; Mekterović, Darko; Mekterović, Igor; Ivošević, Tatjana

    2015-11-01

    VIBA-Lab is a computer program originally developed by the author and co-workers at the National University of Singapore (NUS) as an interactive software package for simulation of Particle Induced X-ray Emission and Rutherford Backscattering Spectra. The original program is redeveloped to a VIBA-Lab 3.0 in which the user can perform semi-quantitative analysis by comparing simulated and measured spectra as well as simulate 2D elemental maps for a given 3D sample composition. The latest version has a new and more versatile user interface. It also has the latest data set of fundamental parameters such as Coster-Kronig transition rates, fluorescence yields, mass absorption coefficients and ionization cross sections for K and L lines in a wider energy range than the original program. Our short-term plan is to introduce routine for quantitative analysis for multiple PIXE and XRF excitations. VIBA-Lab is an excellent teaching tool for students and researchers in using PIXE and RBS techniques. At the same time the program helps when planning an experiment and when optimizing experimental parameters such as incident ions, their energy, detector specifications, filters, geometry, etc. By "running" a virtual experiment the user can test various scenarios until the optimal PIXE and BS spectra are obtained and in this way save a lot of expensive machine time.

  16. Volatilization mechanism of certain elements in a method of semiquantitative spectrographic analysis; Mecanismo de volatilizacion de ciertos elementos en un metodo de analisis espectrografico semicuantitativo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz-Guerra, J P

    1972-07-01

    The efficiency of the compounds GeO{sub 2}, Li{sub 2}B{sub 4}O{sub 7}, Li{sub 2}CO{sub 3}, SiO{sub 2} and SrCO{sub 3} as spectrochemical buffers, in the development of a semiquantitative spectrographic method of analysis, that can be applied to the determination of 47 elements in different matrices, has been tested. It has been shown that trough the use of Li{sub 2}B{sub 4}O{sub 7} or Geo{sub 2} adequate accuracy is obtained, attaining with the latter the detection of much lower concentrations, specially for the elements Mo. Ti, V and W. In order to account for the different behaviour of these elements their volatilization mechanism has been studied. MoB{sub 2}, TiB{sub 2}, VB{sub 2}.{delta}WB and {epsilon}-WB were found, by x-ray diffraction analysis, to be reaction products in the case of mixtures with Li{sub 2}B{sub 4}O{sub 7}. (Author)

  17. Visual and semiquantitative analysis of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography using a partial-ring tomograph without attenuation correction to differentiate benign and malignant pulmonary nodules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skehan, S.J.; Coates, G.; Otero, C.; O'Donovan, N.; Pelling, M.; Nahmias, C.

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have reported the use of attenuation-corrected positron emission tomography with 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG PET) with full-ring tomographs to differentiate between benign and malignant pulmonary nodules. We sought to evaluate FDG PET using a partial-ring tomograph without attenuation correction. A retrospective review of PET images from 77 patients (range 38-84 years of age) with proven benign or malignant pulmonary nodules was undertaken. All images were obtained using a Siemens/CTI ECAT ART tomograph, without attenuation correction, after 185 MBq 18 F-FDG was injected. Images were visually graded on a 5-point scale from 'definitely malignant' to 'definitely benign,' and lesion-to-background (LB) ratios were calculated using region of interest analysis. Visual and semiquantitative analyses were compared using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Twenty lesions were benign and 57 were malignant. The mean LB ratio for benign lesions was 1.5 (range 1.0-5.7) and for malignant lesions 5.7 (range 1.2-14.1) (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve for LB ratio analysis was 0.95, and for visual analysis 0.91 (p = 0.39). The optimal cut-off ratio with LB ratio analysis was 1.8, giving a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 85%. For lesions thought to be 'definitely malignant' on visual analysis, the sensitivity was 93% and the specificity 85%. Three proven infective lesions were rated as malignant by both techniques (LB ratio 2.6-5.7). FDG PET without attenuation correction is accurate for differentiating between benign and malignant lung nodules. Results using simple LB ratios without attenuation correction compare favourably with the published sensitivity and specificity for standard uptake ratios. Visual analysis is equally accurate. (author)

  18. Semiquantitative analysis of ECM molecules in the different cartilage layers in early and advanced osteoarthritis of the knee joint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahm, Andreas; Kasch, Richard; Mrosek, Eike; Spank, Heiko; Erggelet, Christoph; Esser, Jan; Merk, Harry

    2012-05-01

    The study was conducted to examine the expression of collagen type I and II in the different cartilage layers in relation to other ECM molecules during the progression of early osteoarthritic degeneration in human articular cartilage (AC). Quantitative real-time (RT)-PCR and colorimetrical techniques were used for calibration of Photoshop-based image analysis in detecting such lesions. Immunohistochemistry and histology were performed with 40 cartilage tissue samples showing mild (ICRS grade 1b) respectively moderate/advanced (ICRS grade 3a or 3b) (20 each) osteoarthritis compared with 15 healthy biopsies. Furthermore, we quantified our results on the gene expression of collagen type I and II and aggrecan with the help of real-time (RT)-PCR. Proteoglycan content was measured colorimetrically. The digitized images of histology and immunohistochemistry stains were analyzed with Photoshop software. T-test and Spearman correlation analysis were used for statistical analysis. In the earliest stages of AC deterioration the loss of collagen type II was associated with the appearance of collagen type I, shown by increasing amounts of collagen type I mRNA. During subsequent stages, a progressive loss of structural integrity was associated with increasing deposition of collagen type I as part of a natural healing response. A decrease of collagen type II is visible especially in the upper fibrillated area of the advanced osteoarthritic samples, which then leads to an overall decrease. Analysis of proteoglycan showed losses of the overall content and a loss of the classical zonal formation. Correlation analysis of the proteoglycan Photoshop measurements with the RT-PCR revealed strong correlation for Safranin O and collagen type I, medium for collagen type II, alcian blue and glycoprotein but weak correlation with PCR aggrecan results. Photoshop based image analysis might become a valuable supplement for well known histopathological grading systems of lesioned articular

  19. Development of analytical software for semi-quantitative analysis of x-ray spectrum acquired from energy-dispersive spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karim, A.; Rana, M.A.; Qamar, R.; Latif, A; Ahmad, M.; Farooq, M.A.; Ahmad, Z.

    2003-12-01

    Software package for elemental analysis for X-ray spectrum obtained from Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS) attached with Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) has been developed: A Personal Computer Analyzer card PCA-800 is used to acquire data from the EDS. This spectrum is obtained in binary format, which is transformed into ASCII format using PCAII card software. The program is modular in construction and coded using Microsoft's QUICKBASIC compiler linker. Energy line library containing all lines of elements is created for analysis of acquired characteristic X-ray spectrum. Two techniques of peak identification are provided. Statistical tools are employed for smoothing of a curve and for computing area under the curve. Elemental concentration is calculated in weight % and in atomic. (author)

  20. Assessment of the risk of African swine fever introduction into Finland using NORA-a rapid tool for semiquantitative assessment of the risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyyrö, J; Sahlström, L; Lyytikäinen, T

    2017-12-01

    The NORA rapid risk assessment tool was developed for situations where there is a change in the disease status of easily transmissible animal diseases in neighbouring countries or in countries with significant interactions with Finland. The goal was to develop a tool that is quick to use and will provide consistent results to support risk management decisions. The model contains 63 questions that define the potential for entry and exposure by nine different pathways. The magnitude of the consequences is defined by 23 statements. The weight of different pathways is defined according to the properties of the assessed disease. The model was built as an Excel spreadsheet and is intended for use by animal health control administrators. As an outcome, the model gives the possible pathways of disease entry into the country, an overall approximation for the probability of entry and the subsequent exposure, an overall estimate for the consequences and a combined overall risk estimate (probability multiplied by magnitude of consequences). Model validity was assessed by expert panels. Outside Africa, African swine fever is currently established in Russia and Sardinia. In addition, there have been cases in both wild boar and domestic pigs in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia. Finland has frequent contacts with Russia and Estonia, especially through passengers. The risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into Finland was tested with NORA for the situation in December 2015, when ASF was endemic in many parts of Russia, Africa and Sardinia and was present in Baltic countries and in Poland. African swine fever was assessed to have a high probability of entry into Finland, with high consequences and therefore a high overall risk. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Three-phase bone scanning in reflex sympathetic dystrophy of the extremities: a semi-quantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granier, P.; Manicourt, D.H.; Pauwels, S.; Nagant de Deuxchaisnes, C.; Beckers, C.

    1994-01-01

    Three-phase bone scanning of the extremities (foot or hand) was performed in 40 normal subjects and in 56 patients with an unequivocal clinical diagnosis of reflex sympathetic dystrophy. The scintigraphic parameters studied were the ratios of tracer (SUPD SUPG Tc) activity in the affected side over the healthy side established for blood flow, blood pool, early vasculo-tissular fixation, and late bone fixation. In the controls, blood flow, blood pool, and early fixation showed considerable interindividual variation and only the variation of late fixation remained within narrow limits. Statistical analysis revealed that late fixation was most closely correlated with early fixation, which in turn was most close correlated with blood pool. The clinical and pathophysiological significance of these data is discussed. (authors). 33 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  2. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  3. Smooth Muscle Hyperplasia/Hypertrophy is the Most Prominent Histological Change in Crohn's Fibrostenosing Bowel Strictures: A Semiquantitative Analysis by Using a Novel Histological Grading Scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wenqian; Lu, Cathy; Hirota, Christina; Iacucci, Marietta; Ghosh, Subrata; Gui, Xianyong

    2017-01-01

    The simplistically and ambiguously termed 'fibrostenosis' of bowel is a hallmark of severe Crohn's disease [CD] and a major contributor to medical treatment failure. Non-invasive imaging assessment and novel medical therapy targeting this condition are under investigation, which particularly requires a better understanding of the underlying histological basis. We analysed 48 patients with stricturing Crohn's ileitis or/and colitis that required surgical resection. The most representative sections of the fibrostenotic, non-stenotic and uninvolved regions were reviewed for histological analysis. For each layer of bowel wall (mucosa including muscularis mucosae [MU], submucosa [SM], muscularis propria [MP], subserosal adventitia [SS]), histological abnormalities were evaluated individually, including active and chronic inflammation, fibrosis, smooth muscle hyperplasia or hypertrophy, neuronal hypertrophy and adipocyte proliferation. A novel semiquantitative histological grading scheme was created. The most significant histopathological features characterizing the stricturing intestines were smooth muscle hyperplasia of SM, hypertrophy of MP and chronic inflammation. The muscular alteration was predominant in all layers. The overall muscular hyperplasia/hypertrophy was positively correlated with chronic inflammation and negatively correlated with fibrosis, whereas SM muscular hyperplasia was also associated with MU active inflammation. Similar changes, to a lesser extent, occurred in the adjacent non-stenotic inflamed bowel as well. In CD-associated 'fibrostenosis', it is the smooth muscle hyperplasia/hypertrophy that contributes most to the stricturing phenotype, whereas fibrosis is less significant. The 'inflammation-smooth muscle hyperplasia axis' may be the most important in the pathogenesis of Crohn's strictures. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please

  4. Evaluation of the CBL family gene expression under drought stress and virus attack in two susceptible and drought tolerant tomato cultivars using semi-quantitative PCR analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peyman Aghaie

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Eleven genes encoding Calcineurin B-Like proteins with a high degree of sequence conservation were identified using bioinformatics approaches in tomato. These proteins classified into five clusters including SlCBL1, SlCBL3, SlCBL4, SlCBL8 and SlCBL10 using orthology-based method of nomenclature. Sequence analysis showed that all five members of SlCBL1 and SlCBL4 contained a myristoylation conserved motif (MGXXXS/T at their N-terminals. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR showed that among the SlCBL1 members, SlCBL1-3 up-regulated under both drought and virus stresses, as well as the combined treatment. Although, both SlCBL3-1 and SlCBL3-2 up-regulated under both drought and virus stresses in both susceptive and resistant cultivars, the combined stress did not have any additional effect on the expression. Among SlCBL4 members, only SlCBL4-1 up-regulated under drought or virus attack. There was a diverse pattern of expression between the two SlCBL8 members under different stresses in both cultivars. SlCBL10 showed no change in expression pattern under drought or virus stresses in susceptive cultivar and this gene showed to be up-regulated under drought in resistant cultivar. Overall, it was concluded that changes in the expression pattern of CBL genes under biotic and abiotic stresses seemingly induced various CBL/CIPK patways in suseptive or resistant plants.

  5. Semi-quantitative ultrastructural analysis of the localization and neuropeptide content of gonadotropin releasing hormone nerve terminals in the median eminence throughout the estrous cycle of the rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevot, V; Dutoit, S; Croix, D; Tramu, G; Beauvillain, J C

    1998-05-01

    The ultrastructural appearance of gonadotropin releasing hormone-immunoreactive elements was studied in the external zone of the median eminence of adult female Wistar rats. On the one hand, the purpose of the study was to determine the distribution of gonadotropin releasing hormone terminals towards the parenchymatous basal lamina at the level of hypothalamo-hypophyseal portal vessels, throughout the estrous cycle. On the other hand, we have semi-quantified the gonadotropin releasing hormone content in nerve terminals or preterminals during this physiological condition. A morphometric study was coupled to a colloidal 15 mn gold postembedding immunocytochemistry procedure. Animals were killed at 09.00 on diestrus II, 0.900, 10.00, 13.00, 17.00 and 18.00 on proestrus and 09.00 on estrus (n = 4-8 rats/group). A preliminary light microscopic study was carried out to identify an antero-posterior part of median eminence strongly immunostained by anti-gonadotropin releasing hormone antibodies but which was, in addition, easily spotted. This last condition was necessary to make a good comparison between each animal. Contacts between gonadotropin releasing hormone nerve terminals and the basal lamina were observed only the day of proestrus. Such contacts, however, were rare and in the great majority of cases, gonadotropin releasing hormone terminals are separated from basal lamina by tanycytic end feet. The morphometric analysis showed no significant variation in average distance between gonadotropin releasing hormone terminals and capillaries throughout the estrous cycle. Consequently, it did not appear that a large neuroglial plasticity exists during the estrous cycle. However, the observation of contacts only on proestrus together with some ultrastructural images evoke the possibility of a slight plasticity. The semi-quantitative results show that the content of gonadotropin releasing hormone in the nerve endings presented two peaks on proestrus: one at 09.00 (23 +/- 5

  6. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  7. Concomitant semi-quantitative and visual analysis improves the predictive value on treatment outcome of interim 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose / Positron Emission Tomography in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggi, Alberto; Bergesio, Fabrizio; Chauvie, Stephane; Bianchi, Andrea; Menga, Massimo; Fallanca, Federico; Hutchings, Martin; Gregianin, Michele; Meignan, Michel; Gallamini, Andrea

    2017-07-27

    Qualitative assessment using the Deauville five-point scale (DS) is the gold standard for interim and end-of treatment PET interpretation in lymphoma. In the present study we assessed the reliability and the prognostic value of different semi- quantitative (SQ) parameters in comparison with DS for interim PET (iPET) interpretation in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). A cohort of 82 out of 260 patients with advanced stage HL enrolled in the International Validation Study (IVS), scored as 3 to 5 by the expert panel was included in the present report. Two nuclear medicine physicians blinded to patient history, clinical data and treatment outcome reviewed independently the iPET using the following parameters: DS, SUVMax, SUVPeak of the most active lesion, QMax (ratio of SUVMax of the lesion to liver SUVMax) and QRes (ratio of SUVPeak of the lesion to liver SUVMean). The optimal sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value to predict treatment outcome was calculated for all the above parameters with the Receiver Operator Characteristics analysis. The prognostic value of all parameters were similar, the best cut-off value being 4 for DS (Area Under the Curve, AUC, 0.81 CI95%: 0.72-0.90), 3.81 for SUVMax (AUC 0.82 CI95%: 0.73-0.91), 3.20 for SUVPeak (AUC 0.86 CI95%: 0.77-0.94), 1.07 for QMax (AUC 0.84 CI95%: 0.75-0.93) and 1.38 for QRes (AUC 0.84 CI95%: 0.75-0.93). The reproducibility of different parameters was similar as the inter-observer variability measured with Cohen's kappa were 0.93 (95% CI 0.84-1.01) for the DS, 0.88 (0.77-0.98) for SUVMax, 0.82 (0.70-0.95) for SUVPeak, 0.85 (0.74-0.97) for QRes and 0.78 (0.65-0.92) for QMax. Due to the high specificity of SUVPeak (0.87) and to the good sensitivity of DS (0.86), upon the use of both parameters the positive predictive value increased from 0.65 of the DS alone to 0.79. When both parameters were positive in iPET, 3-years Failure-Free Survival (FFS) was significantly lower compared to patients whose iPET was

  8. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  9. In vivo characteristics of IBZM in rat brains, an agent for quantitative SPECT imaging of D2 dopamine receptors. A basis for semiquantitative measurement of the receptor density using equilibrium analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyama, Hiroshi; Maeda, Hisato; Takeuchi, Akira; Koga, Sukehiko; Matsumura, Kaname; Nakashima, Hiromichi; Ichise, Masanori; Kurami, Miki; Nakagawa, Tsuyoshi.

    1994-01-01

    To establish a basis for semiquantitative SPECT measurements of the D 2 dopamine receptor density using equilibrium analysis, we evaluated in vivo kinetic properties of 125 I-IBZM in rat brains. We measured percent uptakes (% dose/g) of 125 I-IBZM in the striatum, frontal cortex, and cerebellum. We made these regional measurements at 15, 30, 45, 60, 90, and 120 minutes after injection, respectively. The specific striatal uptake, which is the uptake difference between striatum and frontal cortex or cerebellum, showed a transient equilibrium phase at 60 min. Theoretically, with these 'reversible' D 2 receptor binding ligands, the tracer-uptake ratio of the striatum-to-frontal cortex or cerebellum during the equilibrium phase provides an estimate of binding potential (Bound/Free=B max /K d ). Our experiment showed that these ratio increased with time after bolus injection of the tracer. Striatum to frontal cortex or cerebellum ratios which were calculated with pooled data (n=12) at 60 minutes in equilibrium phase showed nearly constant values (C.V.=12.3% and 13.5%, respectively). Although measuring the striatum to frontal cortex or cerebellum ratios near equilibrium phase by bolus injection of the tracer which are widely used in human SPECT study could not exactly signify the binding potential, those ratios at fixed time after injection would be reliable for semiquantitative index. (author)

  10. Validation of a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire to assess folate status. Results discriminate a high-risk group of women residing on the Mexico-US border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacardí-Gascón, Montserrat; Ley y de Góngora, Silvia; Castro-Vázquez, Brenda Yuniba; Jiménez-Cruz, Arturo

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate dietary intake of folate in two groups of women from different economic backgrounds and to evaluate validity of the 5-day-weighed food registry (5-d-WFR) and Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) using biological markers. A cross-sectional study was conducted in two samples of urban Mexican women: one represented the middle socioeconomic status (middle SES) and the other, low socioeconomic status (low SES). Middle SES included 34 women recruited from 1998 to 1999. Participants were between the ages of 18 and 32 years and were employed in the banking industry (middle SES) in the US-Mexican border city of Tijuana, Baja California. Low SES included 70 women between the ages of 18 and 35 years recruited during the year 2000. These women were receiving care at a primary health care center in Ensenada, Baja California Norte State, Mexico (low SES). Pearson correlations were calculated between folate intake among 5-day diet registry, FFQ, and biochemical indices. FFQ reproducibility was performed by Spearman correlation of each food item daily and of weekly intake. Average folate intake in middle SES from 5-d-WFR was 210 microg +/- 171. Fifty four percent of participants had intakes risk of NTDs as a result of low folate intake and low serum folate and RBC folate concentrations.

  11. Orbital benign and malignant lymphoproliferative disorders: Differentiation using semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Hao; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Liu, Hu; Hong, Xun-Ning; Shi, Hai-Bin; Wu, Fei-Yun

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To assess the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging (DCE-MRI) in differentiating benign from malignant orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (OLPDs). Methods: Thirty-nine patients with orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (21 malignant and 18 benign) underwent DCE-MRI scan for pre-treatment evaluation from March 2013 to December 2015. Both semi-quantitative (TTP, AUC, Slope max ) and quantitative (K trans , k ep , v e ) parameters were calculated, and compared between two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the diagnostic value of each significant parameter. Results: Malignant OLPDs showed significantly higher k ep , lower v e , and lower AUC than benign OLPDs, while no significant differences were found on K trans , TTP and Slope max . ROC analyses indicated that v e exhibited the best diagnostic performance in predicting malignant OLPDs (cutoff value, 0.211; area under the curve, 0.896; sensitivity, 76.2%; specificity, 94.9%), followed by k ep (cutoff value, 0.853; area under the curve, 0.839; sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 89.9%). Conclusion: DCE-MRI and specially its derived quantitative parameters of k ep and v e are promising metrics for differentiating malignant from benign OLPDs.

  12. Orbital benign and malignant lymphoproliferative disorders: Differentiation using semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Hao; Xu, Xiao-Quan [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Liu, Hu [Department of Ophthalmology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Hong, Xun-Ning; Shi, Hai-Bin [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Wu, Fei-Yun, E-mail: wfydd_njmu@163.com [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China)

    2017-03-15

    Objectives: To assess the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging (DCE-MRI) in differentiating benign from malignant orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (OLPDs). Methods: Thirty-nine patients with orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (21 malignant and 18 benign) underwent DCE-MRI scan for pre-treatment evaluation from March 2013 to December 2015. Both semi-quantitative (TTP, AUC, Slope{sub max}) and quantitative (K{sup trans}, k{sub ep}, v{sub e}) parameters were calculated, and compared between two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the diagnostic value of each significant parameter. Results: Malignant OLPDs showed significantly higher k{sub ep}, lower v{sub e}, and lower AUC than benign OLPDs, while no significant differences were found on K{sup trans}, TTP and Slope{sub max}. ROC analyses indicated that v{sub e} exhibited the best diagnostic performance in predicting malignant OLPDs (cutoff value, 0.211; area under the curve, 0.896; sensitivity, 76.2%; specificity, 94.9%), followed by k{sub ep} (cutoff value, 0.853; area under the curve, 0.839; sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 89.9%). Conclusion: DCE-MRI and specially its derived quantitative parameters of k{sub ep} and v{sub e} are promising metrics for differentiating malignant from benign OLPDs.

  13. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  17. Could semiquantitative FDG analysis add information to the prognosis in patients with stage II/III breast cancer undergoing neoadjuvant treatment?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, Laura; Cervino, Anna Rita [Veneto Institute of Oncology IOV - IRCCS, Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine Unit, Padua (Italy); Ghiotto, Cristina; Guarneri, Valentina; Conte, Pierfranco [Veneto Institute of Oncology IOV - IRCCS, Medical Oncology 2 Unit, Padua (Italy); Saibene, Tania; Michieletto, Silvia; Fernando, Bozza [Veneto Institute of Oncology IOV - IRCCS, Breast Unit, Padua (Italy); Orvieto, Enrico [University Hospital of Padua, Department of Pathology, Padua (Italy)

    2015-10-15

    We investigated whether maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and whole-body (WB) SUVmax, WB MTV and WB TLG measured by {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT could improve prognostic stratification in patients with stage II/III breast cancer (BC). We prospectively enrolled 99 consecutive women (median age 50 years, range 27 - 77 years) with pathologically proven stage II/III BC who underwent pretreatment FDG PET/CT. WB SUVmax, WB MTV and WB TLG were measured in all malignant lesions. Survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to test for relationships among WB SUVmax, WB MTV, WB TLG, and overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), after adjustment for age, and histopathological and immunohistochemical features (oestrogen/progesterone and HER2 expression, proliferation index and grade). The median values of WB SUVmax, WB MTV and WB TLG were 16.2 (range 1.5 - 33.1), 14 cm{sup 3} (range 0.03 - 708.6 cm{sup 3}) and 62.5 (0.06 - 3869.4), respectively. All WB semiquantitative values were higher in patients with higher TNM stage, although not significantly (all p > 0.05). The median follow-up for surviving patients was 30 months, with a range of 13 - 45 months. Both PFS and OS of patients with low WB SUVmax, WB MTV and WB TLG were longer than that of patients with high WB values for progression, although not statistically significant. However, stratifying the patients in accordance with the stage of disease, both PFS and OS were significantly lower in patients with high WB TLG and stage III than in patients with stage II (p < 0.05). In multivariate analyses, WB MTV and WB TLG were independent prognostic factors for PFS (hazard ratio 1.004, 95 % confidence interval 1.002 - 1.006, p < 0.001, and hazard ratio 1.001, 95 % confidence interval 1.000 - 1.001, p = 0.011, respectively). The addition of WB TLG to clinical data may provide a more detailed

  18. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  19. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  20. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  1. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  2. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  3. A new semiquantitative method for evaluation of metastasis progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volarevic, A; Ljujic, B; Volarevic, V; Milovanovic, M; Kanjevac, T; Lukic, A; Arsenijevic, N

    2012-01-01

    Although recent technical advancements are directed toward developing novel assays and methods for detection of micro and macro metastasis, there are still no reports of reliable, simple to use imaging software that could be used for the detection and quantification of metastasis in tissue sections. We herein report a new semiquantitative method for evaluation of metastasis progression in a well established 4T1 orthotopic mouse model of breast cancer metastasis. The new semiquantitative method presented here was implemented by using the Autodesk AutoCAD 2012 program, a computer-aided design program used primarily for preparing technical drawings in 2 dimensions. By using the Autodesk AutoCAD 2012 software- aided graphical evaluation we managed to detect each metastatic lesion and we precisely calculated the average percentage of lung and liver tissue parenchyma with metastasis in 4T1 tumor-bearing mice. The data were highly specific and relevant to descriptive histological analysis, confirming reliability and accuracy of the AutoCAD 2012 software as new method for quantification of metastatic lesions. The new semiquantitative method using AutoCAD 2012 software provides a novel approach for the estimation of metastatic progression in histological tissue sections.

  4. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  5. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  6. Semi-quantitative analysis of solid waste flows from nano-enabled consumer products in Europe, Denmark and the United Kingdom - Abundance, distribution and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heggelund, Laura Roverskov; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2016-01-01

    ) plastic from used product containers is the largest waste fraction also comprising a large variety of ENMs, though possibly in very small masses. Also, we showed that the local waste management system can influence the distribution of ENMs. It is recommended that future research focus on recycling......, and especially the knowledge of ENM behaviour and potential effects at the end-of-life stage of the products is scarce. To gain a better understanding of the end-of-life waste treatment of nano-enabled consumer product, we provide an overview of the ENMs flowing into and throughout waste systems in Europe......, Denmark and the United Kingdom. Using a nanoproduct inventory (nanodb.dk), we performed a four-step analysis to estimate the most abundant ENMs and in which waste fractions they are present. We found that in terms of number of products: (i) nano silver is the most used ENM in consumer products, and (ii...

  7. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Marco; Rodriguez-Zaragoza, Fabián; Hermosillo-Nuñez, Brenda; Jordán, Ferenc

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies.

  8. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean: Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Ortiz

    Full Text Available Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean. Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4 showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3. Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5, the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1 the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2 the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics and (3 the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control. An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies.

  9. A semi-quantitative translational pharmacology analysis to understand the relationship between in vitro ENT1 inhibition and the clinical incidence of dyspnoea and bronchospasm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenbrier Ribeiro, Lyn, E-mail: Lyn.Rosenbrierribeiro@AstraZeneca.com; Ian Storer, R.

    2017-02-15

    patients. • Neutral or basic compounds with clogP > 5 have increased promiscuity to bind ENT1. • ENT1 should be assessed within safety strategies for respiratory research programs. • Quantitative translation enables informed risk-assessment of off-target ENT1 activity.

  10. A semi-quantitative translational pharmacology analysis to understand the relationship between in vitro ENT1 inhibition and the clinical incidence of dyspnoea and bronchospasm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenbrier Ribeiro, Lyn; Ian Storer, R.

    2017-01-01

    compounds with clogP > 5 have increased promiscuity to bind ENT1. • ENT1 should be assessed within safety strategies for respiratory research programs. • Quantitative translation enables informed risk-assessment of off-target ENT1 activity.

  11. A retrospective, semi-quantitative image quality analysis of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and MSCT in the diagnosis of distal radius fractures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, H.; Neubauer, J.; Fritz, B.; Spira, E.M.; Strube, J.; Langer, M.; Kotter, E.

    2016-01-01

    To compare image quality and diagnostic validity of CBCT and MSCT for distal radius fractures. 35 CBCT and 33 MSCT scans were retrospectively reviewed with a visual grading scale regarding the depiction of cortical bone, trabecular bone, articular surfaces, and soft tissue. The extent and type of artefacts was analyzed. Agreement on AO classification and measurement of cortical disruption and length of the fracture gap was determined. Fracture reduction was evaluated in post-treatment x-rays. Statistical analysis was performed with visual grading characteristics (VGC), chi square tests, and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. CBCT performed significantly worse for cortical bone, articular surfaces, and especially soft tissue. Trabecular bone showed no significant difference. Significantly more CBCT images showed artefacts. Physics-based artefacts were the most common. CBCT scans also showed motion artefacts. There was no significant difference in agreement on AO classification. The agreement on measurements was substantial for both modalities. Slightly more fractures that had undergone MSCT imaging showed adequate reduction. This initial study of an orthopaedic extremity CBCT scanner showed that the image quality of a CBCT scanner remains inferior for most structures at standard settings. Diagnostic validity of both modalities for distal radius fractures seems similar. (orig.)

  12. Semi-quantitative analysis of solid waste flows from nano-enabled consumer products in Europe, Denmark and the United Kingdom - Abundance, distribution and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggelund, Laura; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard; Boldrin, Alessio

    2016-10-01

    Many nano-enabled consumer products are known to be in the global market. At the same, little is known about the quantity, type, location etc. of the engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) inside the products. This limits the scientific investigations of potential environmental effects of these materials, and especially the knowledge of ENM behaviour and potential effects at the end-of-life stage of the products is scarce. To gain a better understanding of the end-of-life waste treatment of nano-enabled consumer product, we provide an overview of the ENMs flowing into and throughout waste systems in Europe, Denmark and the United Kingdom. Using a nanoproduct inventory (nanodb.dk), we performed a four-step analysis to estimate the most abundant ENMs and in which waste fractions they are present. We found that in terms of number of products: (i) nano silver is the most used ENM in consumer products, and (ii) plastic from used product containers is the largest waste fraction also comprising a large variety of ENMs, though possibly in very small masses. Also, we showed that the local waste management system can influence the distribution of ENMs. It is recommended that future research focus on recycling and landfilling of nano-enabled products since these compartments represent hot spots for end-of-life nanoproducts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A retrospective, semi-quantitative image quality analysis of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and MSCT in the diagnosis of distal radius fractures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lang, H.; Neubauer, J.; Fritz, B.; Spira, E.M.; Strube, J.; Langer, M.; Kotter, E. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Department of Radiology, Freiburg (Germany)

    2016-12-15

    To compare image quality and diagnostic validity of CBCT and MSCT for distal radius fractures. 35 CBCT and 33 MSCT scans were retrospectively reviewed with a visual grading scale regarding the depiction of cortical bone, trabecular bone, articular surfaces, and soft tissue. The extent and type of artefacts was analyzed. Agreement on AO classification and measurement of cortical disruption and length of the fracture gap was determined. Fracture reduction was evaluated in post-treatment x-rays. Statistical analysis was performed with visual grading characteristics (VGC), chi square tests, and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. CBCT performed significantly worse for cortical bone, articular surfaces, and especially soft tissue. Trabecular bone showed no significant difference. Significantly more CBCT images showed artefacts. Physics-based artefacts were the most common. CBCT scans also showed motion artefacts. There was no significant difference in agreement on AO classification. The agreement on measurements was substantial for both modalities. Slightly more fractures that had undergone MSCT imaging showed adequate reduction. This initial study of an orthopaedic extremity CBCT scanner showed that the image quality of a CBCT scanner remains inferior for most structures at standard settings. Diagnostic validity of both modalities for distal radius fractures seems similar. (orig.)

  14. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  15. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  16. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  17. Semi-quantitative evaluation of gallium-67 scintigraphy in lupus nephritis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Wanyu; Hsieh Jihfang; Tsai Shihchuan; Lan Joungliang; Cheng Kaiyuan; Wang Shyhjen

    2000-01-01

    Within nuclear medicine there is a trend towards quantitative analysis. Gallium renal scan has been reported to be useful in monitoring the disease activity of lupus nephritis. However, only visual interpretation using a four-grade scale has been performed in previous studies, and this method is not sensitive enough for follow-up. In this study, we developed a semi-quantitative method for gallium renal scintigraphy to find a potential parameter for the evaluation of lupus nephritis. Forty-eight patients with lupus nephritis underwent renal biopsy to determine World Health Organization classification, activity index (AI) and chronicity index (CI). A delayed 48-h gallium scan was also performed and interpreted by visual and semi-quantitative methods. For semi-quantitative analysis of the gallium uptake in both kidneys, regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn over both kidneys, the right forearm and the adjacent spine. The uptake ratios between these ROIs were calculated and expressed as the ''kidney/spine ratio (K/S ratio)'' or the ''kidney/arm ratio (K/A ratio)''. Spearman's rank correlation test and Mann-Whitney U test were used for statistical analysis. Our data showed a good correlation between the semi-quantitative gallium scan and the results of visual interpretation. K/S ratios showed a better correlation with AI than did K/A ratios. Furthermore, the left K/S ratio displayed a better correlation with AI than did the right K/S ratio. In contrast, CI did not correlate well with the results of semi-quantitative gallium scan. In conclusion, semi-quantitative gallium renal scan is easy to perform and shows a good correlation with the results of visual interpretation and renal biopsy. The left K/S ratio from semi-quantitative renal gallium scintigraphy displays the best correlation with AI and is a useful parameter in evaluating the disease activity in lupus nephritis. (orig.)

  18. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  19. A new semiquantitative radiometric opsonin assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamura, M.; Valdimarsson, H.

    1978-01-01

    A new semiquantitative radiometric opsonin assay is described. It was found that the opsonin activity generated by incubating brewer's yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, in medium containing less than 5% human serum was exclusively complement dependent. In contrast, C.albicans was effectively opsonized in the absence of complement. Antibodies and the early classical complement pathway did not contribute to the opsonization of S.cerevisiae and neither did C5-9. The brewer's yeast assay can therefore be used for measuring selectively the opsonizing capacity of the alternative pathway. Sera from approximately 7% of apparently healthy adult controls consistently failed to generate significant opsonin activity while 8 out of 26 patients with suspected immune deficiency of unknown cause were defective in this assay. All opsonin deficient sera so far tested had haemolytically normal alternative pathway and Factor B activity. (author)

  20. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  1. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  2. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  3. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  4. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  5. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  6. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  7. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  8. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

    2018-02-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

  9. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  10. Atmospheric pressure solid analysis probe coupled to quadrupole-time of flight mass spectrometry as a tool for screening and semi-quantitative approach of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and oxo-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in complex matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrizo, Daniel; Domeño, Celia; Nerín, Isabel; Alfaro, Pilar; Nerín, Cristina

    2015-01-01

    A new screening and semi-quantitative approach has been developed for direct analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their nitro and oxo derivatives in environmental and biological matrices using atmospheric pressure solid analysis probe (ASAP) quadrupole-time of flight mass spectrometry (Q-TOF-MS). The instrumental parameters were optimized for the analysis of all these compounds, without previous sample treatment, in soil, motor oil, atmospheric particles (ashes) and biological samples such as urine and saliva of smokers and non-smokers. Ion source parameters in the MS were found to be the key parameters, with little variation within PAHs families. The optimized corona current was 4 µA, sample cone voltage 80 V for PAHs, nitro-PAHs and oxo-PAHs, while the desolvation temperatures varied from 300°C to 500°C. The analytical method performance was checked using a certified reference material. Two deuterated compounds were used as internal standards for semi-quantitative purposes together with the pure individual standard for each compound and the corresponding calibration plot. The compounds nitro PAH 9-nitroanthracene and oxo-PAH 1,4-naphthalenedione, were found in saliva and urine in a range below 1 µg/g while the range of PAHs in these samples was below 2 µg/g. Environmental samples provided higher concentration of all pollutants than urine and saliva. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  12. Semi-quantitative evaluation of gallium-67 scintigraphy in lupus nephritis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin Wanyu [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung (Taiwan); Dept. of Radiological Technology, Chung-Tai College of Medical Technology, Taichung (Taiwan); Hsieh Jihfang [Section of Nuclear Medicine, Chi-Mei Foundation Hospital, Yunk Kang City, Tainan (Taiwan); Tsai Shihchuan [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Show Chwan Memorial Hospital, Changhua (Taiwan); Lan Joungliang [Dept. of Internal Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung (Taiwan); Cheng Kaiyuan [Dept. of Radiological Technology, Chung-Tai College of Medical Technology, Taichung (Taiwan); Wang Shyhjen [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung (Taiwan)

    2000-11-01

    Within nuclear medicine there is a trend towards quantitative analysis. Gallium renal scan has been reported to be useful in monitoring the disease activity of lupus nephritis. However, only visual interpretation using a four-grade scale has been performed in previous studies, and this method is not sensitive enough for follow-up. In this study, we developed a semi-quantitative method for gallium renal scintigraphy to find a potential parameter for the evaluation of lupus nephritis. Forty-eight patients with lupus nephritis underwent renal biopsy to determine World Health Organization classification, activity index (AI) and chronicity index (CI). A delayed 48-h gallium scan was also performed and interpreted by visual and semi-quantitative methods. For semi-quantitative analysis of the gallium uptake in both kidneys, regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn over both kidneys, the right forearm and the adjacent spine. The uptake ratios between these ROIs were calculated and expressed as the ''kidney/spine ratio (K/S ratio)'' or the ''kidney/arm ratio (K/A ratio)''. Spearman's rank correlation test and Mann-Whitney U test were used for statistical analysis. Our data showed a good correlation between the semi-quantitative gallium scan and the results of visual interpretation. K/S ratios showed a better correlation with AI than did K/A ratios. Furthermore, the left K/S ratio displayed a better correlation with AI than did the right K/S ratio. In contrast, CI did not correlate well with the results of semi-quantitative gallium scan. In conclusion, semi-quantitative gallium renal scan is easy to perform and shows a good correlation with the results of visual interpretation and renal biopsy. The left K/S ratio from semi-quantitative renal gallium scintigraphy displays the best correlation with AI and is a useful parameter in evaluating the disease activity in lupus nephritis. (orig.)

  13. Cloning and semi-quantitative expression of endochitinase ( ech42 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cloning and semi-quantitative expression of endochitinase (ech42) gene from Trichoderma spp. Pratibha Sharma, K Saravanan, R Ramesh, P Vignesh Kumar, Dinesh Singh, Manika Sharma, Monica S. Henry, Swati Deep ...

  14. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  15. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  16. Preston and Park-Sanders protocols adapted for semi-quantitative isolation of thermotolerant Campylobacter from chicken rinse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Lübeck, Peter Stephensen; Aalbaek, B.

    2003-01-01

    Human campylobacteriosis has become the major cause of foodborne gastrointestinal diseases in several European countries. In order to implement effective control measures in the primary production, and as a tool in risk assessment studies, it is necessary to have sensitive and quantitative...... detection methods. Thus, semi-quantitative detection of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in 20 naturally contaminated chicken rinse samples was carried out using the two most common standard protocols: Preston and Park-Sanders, as proposed by Nordic Committee on Food Analysis (NMKL) and International...... Standard Organization (ISO), respectively. For both protocols, the chicken rinse samples were prepared in 500 ml buffered peptone water, as recommended in the ISO protocol no. 6887-2. The results indicated that the Preston protocol was superior to the Park-Sanders protocol in supporting growth...

  17. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  18. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  19. Risk analysis applied to the production of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, Daniel; Torres, Antonio; Henriquez, Jorge R.; Soria, Miguel A.; Ayra, Fernando E.

    2017-01-01

    Radionuclide Technetium-99m is the most used today, so that their production is vital to the branches of health and the economy of any country. Cuba currently producing generators for obtaining this radionuclide, and it is produce at the Center of Isotopes. Risk assessments of radiological hazard installations are a regulatory requirement in Cuba. Although there are several qualitative or quantitative methods to perform these studies, the existence of basis risk starting and analysis codes and simplicity of use has been privileged the risk matrix as a preferred semi-quantitative method. The investigation presents the application, for the first time, of this method on a complex installation with radiological hazard in Cuba. Using the SECURE - MR Ver. 2.0 code detailed risk analysis of the practice carried out, resulting in three accidental sequences with high-risk level and determining the importance of reducers and barriers related with human factors associated to sufficiency and personnel training. Among the derived applications are reported the novelties analysis capabilities and possibilities of risk monitoring. The risk model developed for the production process of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m joined with capabilities review, analysis and documentation provided by the tool, allow obtaining a completely and coherent document with the model, which constitutes a valuable basis for understanding the safety of the installation knowledge. (author)

  20. Risk analysis applied to the production of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, Daniel; Torres, Antonio; Henriquez, Jorge R.; Soria, Miguel A.; Ayra, Fernando E., E-mail: danivd1188@gmail.com, E-mail: rjorge@ufpe.br, E-mail: masguevara@centis.edu.cu, E-mail: feayra@centis.cu [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (DEMEC/UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Mecanica; Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Instituto Superior de Tecnologias y Ciencias Aplicadas (DIN/InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Departamento de Proteccion Radiologica, Centro de Isotopos (DPR/CENTIS), La Habana (Cuba)

    2017-11-01

    Radionuclide Technetium-99m is the most used today, so that their production is vital to the branches of health and the economy of any country. Cuba currently producing generators for obtaining this radionuclide, and it is produce at the Center of Isotopes. Risk assessments of radiological hazard installations are a regulatory requirement in Cuba. Although there are several qualitative or quantitative methods to perform these studies, the existence of basis risk starting and analysis codes and simplicity of use has been privileged the risk matrix as a preferred semi-quantitative method. The investigation presents the application, for the first time, of this method on a complex installation with radiological hazard in Cuba. Using the SECURE - MR Ver. 2.0 code detailed risk analysis of the practice carried out, resulting in three accidental sequences with high-risk level and determining the importance of reducers and barriers related with human factors associated to sufficiency and personnel training. Among the derived applications are reported the novelties analysis capabilities and possibilities of risk monitoring. The risk model developed for the production process of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m joined with capabilities review, analysis and documentation provided by the tool, allow obtaining a completely and coherent document with the model, which constitutes a valuable basis for understanding the safety of the installation knowledge. (author)

  1. Differential expression analysis of boron transporters and some stress-related genes in response to 24-epibrassinolide and boron by semi-quantitative RT-PCR in Arabidopsis thaliana (L. Heynh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surgun Yonca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Plant steroidal hormones, brassinosteroids (BRs, promote plant developmental processes and enhance tolerance to several abiotic stresses including high boron (B stress. To examine the possible role of BR in high B-induced stress at the transcriptional level, we investigated the response of B transporter genes (BOR1-4, high B-induced genes (MATE, Hsp-like, BR-induced genes (Hsp70-4, Hsp90-1 and other stress-related genes (LTI/COR78, LEA4-5 upon exogenous treatments of 24-epibrassinolide (EBL on Arabidopsis thaliana (L. Heynh exposed to high concentrations of boric acid (BA using semi-quantitative RT-PCR. BA treatments led to down regulation of BOR1 and BOR3 genes in leaf and root tissues and higher concentration of EBL further decreased expression of these genes in roots. The expression of high B-induced genes was observed to be upregulated by 1 μM EBL treatment under high B stress in both tissues of the seedlings. The upregulation of BR-induced genes were clearly evident in root tissues co-treated with 1 μM EBL and BA as compared to BA alone. Higher concentration of EBL was found to be more effective in increasing expression of LTI/COR78 gene in root and LEA4-5 gene in shoot tissues. To our knowledge, this is the first report how exogenous application of EBL modulates high B stress responses at molecular level in model plant Arabidopsis thaliana.

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  3. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  4. High-resolution confocal imaging of wall ingrowth deposition in plant transfer cells: Semi-quantitative analysis of phloem parenchyma transfer cell development in leaf minor veins of Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Suong T T; McCurdy, David W

    2015-04-23

    Transfer cells (TCs) are trans-differentiated versions of existing cell types designed to facilitate enhanced membrane transport of nutrients at symplasmic/apoplasmic interfaces. This transport capacity is conferred by intricate wall ingrowths deposited secondarily on the inner face of the primary cell wall, hence promoting the potential trans-membrane flux of solutes and consequently assigning TCs as having key roles in plant growth and productivity. However, TCs are typically positioned deep within tissues and have been studied mostly by electron microscopy. Recent advances in fluorophore labelling of plant cell walls using a modified pseudo-Schiff-propidium iodide (mPS-PI) staining procedure in combination with high-resolution confocal microscopy have allowed visualization of cellular details of individual tissue layers in whole mounts, hence enabling study of tissue and cellular architecture without the need for tissue sectioning. Here we apply a simplified version of the mPS-PI procedure for confocal imaging of cellulose-enriched wall ingrowths in vascular TCs at the whole tissue level. The simplified mPS-PI staining procedure produced high-resolution three-dimensional images of individual cell types in vascular bundles and, importantly, wall ingrowths in phloem parenchyma (PP) TCs in minor veins of Arabidopsis leaves and companion cell TCs in pea. More efficient staining of tissues was obtained by replacing complex clearing procedures with a simple post-fixation bleaching step. We used this modified procedure to survey the presence of PP TCs in other tissues of Arabidopsis including cotyledons, cauline leaves and sepals. This high-resolution imaging enabled us to classify different stages of wall ingrowth development in Arabidopsis leaves, hence enabling semi-quantitative assessment of the extent of wall ingrowth deposition in PP TCs at the whole leaf level. Finally, we conducted a defoliation experiment as an example of using this approach to statistically

  5. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  6. Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; AlKhamis, Mohammad; Boklund, Anette

    2017-01-01

    We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate...... and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14...

  7. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  8. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  9. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  10. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  11. DREAM: a method for semi-quantitative dermal exposure assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wendel de Joode, B. van; Brouwer, D.H.; Kromhout, H.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a new method (DREAM) for structured, semi-quantitative dermal exposure assessment for chemical or biological agents that can be used in occupational hygiene or epidemiology. It is anticipated that DREAM could serve as an initial assessment of dermal exposure, amongst others,

  12. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  13. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  14. DELAYED FDG-PET/CT IMAGES IN PATIENTS WITH BRAIN TUMORS - IMPACT ON VISUAL AND SEMIQUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel H. Bochev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the extensive use of FDG-PET/CT its role in brain tumor assessment remains controversial mostly because of the physiologically high brain uptake which easily obscures pathological processes. The wide availability of FDG, however, maintains the interest in FDG neuro-oncological applications. Objective: to evaluate the use of a late registration at 180min in patients with brain tumors, studied with FDG-PET/CT based on visual and semiquantitative analysis. Materials and methods: 38 patients with brain neoplasms and non-tumor structural lesions underwent a selective brain 18F-FDG PET/CT at two time points at 60 and 180 minutes after administration. Visual assessment was made by two readers with interobserver agreement calculation. Region ratio comparison with three different reference regions - the contralateral one, the white matter, and the cerebellum was used as a base for semiquantitative analysis. Results: Visual analysis showed better delineation of malignant lesion on late registrations with higher inter/intraobserver agreement as compared to the early images. Semiquantitative analysis demonstrated significant differences in early and late indices of metastases and gliomas, but failed in distinguishing gliomas from metastatic lesions and benign lesions.Conclusion: Delayed brain images with FDG-PET/CT at 180 min after injection provide better tumor delineation, higher accuracy, lower interobserver variations. The use of semiquantitative indices, irrespective of the reference region used, is of limited value

  15. Semi-quantitative methods yield greater inter- and intraobserver agreement than subjective methods for interpreting 99m technetium-hydroxymethylene-diphosphonate uptake in equine thoracic processi spinosi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zadelhoff, Claudia; Ehrle, Anna; Merle, Roswitha; Jahn, Werner; Lischer, Christoph

    2018-05-09

    Scintigraphy is a standard diagnostic method for evaluating horses with back pain due to suspected thoracic processus spinosus pathology. Lesion detection is based on subjective or semi-quantitative assessments of increased uptake. This retrospective, analytical study is aimed to compare semi-quantitative and subjective methods in the evaluation of scintigraphic images of the processi spinosi in the equine thoracic spine. Scintigraphic images of 20 Warmblood horses, presented for assessment of orthopedic conditions between 2014 and 2016, were included in the study. Randomized, blinded image evaluation was performed by 11 veterinarians using subjective and semi-quantitative methods. Subjective grading was performed for the analysis of red-green-blue and grayscale scintigraphic images, which were presented in full-size or as masked images. For the semi-quantitative assessment, observers placed regions of interest over each processus spinosus. The uptake ratio of each processus spinosus in comparison to a reference region of interest was determined. Subsequently, a modified semi-quantitative calculation was developed whereby only the highest counts-per-pixel for a specified number of pixels was processed. Inter- and intraobserver agreement was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Inter- and intraobserver intraclass correlation coefficients were 41.65% and 71.39%, respectively, for the subjective image assessment. Additionally, a correlation between intraobserver agreement, experience, and grayscale images was identified. The inter- and intraobserver agreement was significantly increased when using semi-quantitative analysis (97.35% and 98.36%, respectively) or the modified semi-quantitative calculation (98.61% and 98.82%, respectively). The proposed modified semi-quantitative technique showed a higher inter- and intraobserver agreement when compared to other methods, which makes it a useful tool for the analysis of scintigraphic images. The

  16. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  17. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  18. Application of semiquantitative parameters of bone scintigraphy in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokhchelyan, Kh.; Klisarova, A.; Koeva, L.; Pranchev, L.; Tranulov, G.

    1997-01-01

    The aim of the study is to introduce semiquantitative indicators, contributing to early detection and dynamic measurement of the degree of bone metabolism in the foot of diabetic patients. Ten diabetics (3 women and 7 men) and 20 controls (10 women and 10 men) are included in the study. All patients are subjected to bone scintigraphy, clinical and biochemical investigation. Data are obtained pointing to enhanced and disproportional fixation of the radionuclide in symmetrical zones of the foot. The results are interpreted with a special reference to the extent of metabolic control and complications of the diabetic condition. Enhanced bone metabolism in the foot of the diabetic patients examined was established. Semiquantitative parameters enabling early detection and dynamic measurement of bone metabolism in the diabetic foot are practically implemented

  19. Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syazwan, Ai; Rafee, B Mohd; Juahir, Hafizan; Azman, Azf; Nizar, Am; Izwyn, Z; Syahidatussyakirah, K; Muhaimin, Aa; Yunos, Ma Syafiq; Anita, Ar; Hanafiah, J Muhamad; Shaharuddin, Ms; Ibthisham, A Mohd; Hasmadi, I Mohd; Azhar, Mn Mohamad; Azizan, Hs; Zulfadhli, I; Othman, J; Rozalini, M; Kamarul, Ft

    2012-01-01

    To analyze and characterize a multidisciplinary, integrated indoor air quality checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants in a nonindustrial workplace setting. A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia) and Universiti Putra Malaysia. A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint), which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort. This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ

  20. A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

    2016-12-01

    To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

  1. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  2. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  3. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  4. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  5. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  6. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  8. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  9. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  11. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  12. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  13. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  14. Semiquantitative bacterial observations with group B streptococcal vulvovaginitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monif, G R

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Group B streptococcal (GBS) vulvovaginitis is a poorly-delineated clinical entity. The purpose of this study is to report semiquantitative data from four cases of GBS vulvovaginitis and to comment on their significance in terms of the in vitro inhibitory capabilities of GBS. METHODOLOGY: Four patients whose clinical presentations were consistent with GBS vulvovaginitis, from whom GBS was isolated and for whom semi-quantitative as well as qualitative microbiologic data existed, were identified. RESULTS: To produce vulvovaginitis, GBS must be at a high multiplicity (10(8) CFU/g of vaginal fluid). Single coisolates were identified in three of the four cases (two cases of Escherichia coli and one case of Staphylococcus aureus). Group B streptococcus does not inhibit either of these bacteria in vitro. CONCLUSION: When the growth requirements for the demonstration of in vitro inhibition for GBS or lack thereof are met in vivo, the in vivo observations are consistent with those projected from the in vitro data. PMID:10524667

  15. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  16. Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

    2012-04-01

    Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

  17. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  18. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  20. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  1. Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloy, Anthony F.

    2006-09-01

    A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

  2. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  3. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  4. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  5. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  6. Semiquantitative diagnosis of cancer using short-lived radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, Tomio; Oriuchi, Noboru; Endo, Keigo [Gunma Univ., Maebashi (Japan). School of Medicine

    1997-03-01

    The accuracy and usefulness of semiquantitative diagnoses of SPECT using radiolabeled monoclonal antibodies in patients with colorectal cancer and PET using FDG in patients with recurrent lung cancer were investigated. The tumor to normal tissue count ratio (T/N ratio) was determined with SPECT and compared with the same index (T/N ratio) obtained by measuring radioactivity in tumor and normal tissue of the resected specimens. Significant correlation between SPECT T/N ratios and tissue T/N ratio was observed (r=0.92, p<0.001, n=8). In PET study, standardized uptake value (SUV) was obtained with PET images and assessed the difference in SUV between recurrent tumors and noncancerous lesions. The relationship between the SUV threshold and diagnostic accuracy in differentiating recurrent tumors from post-treatment changes was also assessed. The maximum SUV in recurrent tumor ranged from 3.0 to 25.8 with a mean {+-} s.d. of 11.2 {+-} 5.7 (n=16) and in the noncancerous lesion ranged from 2.0 to 7.5 with a mean {+-} s.d. of 3.5 {+-} 1.8 (n=9). The SUV was significantly higher in the recurrent cancer (P<0.0001). A threshold SUV of 5.0 provided optimal diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity 93.8%, specificity 88.9%, accuracy 92.0%). It was superior to visual interpretation of FDG PET (sensitivity 100%, specificity 55.6%, accuracy 84%). In conclusion, semiquantitative diagnoses with SPECT using radiolabeled monoclonal antibody and PET using FDG were accurate and useful in detecting malignant tumors. (author)

  7. A novel semi-quantitative method for measuring tissue bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vukcevic, G; Volarevic, V; Raicevic, S; Tanaskovic, I; Milicic, B; Vulovic, T; Arsenijevic, S

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we describe a new semi-quantitative method for measuring the extent of bleeding in pathohistological tissue samples. To test our novel method, we recruited 120 female patients in their first trimester of pregnancy and divided them into three groups of 40. Group I was the control group, in which no dilation was applied. Group II was an experimental group, in which dilation was performed using classical mechanical dilators. Group III was also an experimental group, in which dilation was performed using a hydraulic dilator. Tissue samples were taken from the patients' cervical canals using a Novak's probe via energetic single-step curettage prior to any dilation in Group I and after dilation in Groups II and III. After the tissue samples were prepared, light microscopy was used to obtain microphotographs at 100x magnification. The surfaces affected by bleeding were measured in the microphotographs using the Autodesk AutoCAD 2009 program and its "polylines" function. The lines were used to mark the area around the entire sample (marked A) and to create "polyline" areas around each bleeding area on the sample (marked B). The percentage of the total area affected by bleeding was calculated using the formula: N = Bt x 100 / At where N is the percentage (%) of the tissue sample surface affected by bleeding, At (A total) is the sum of the surfaces of all of the tissue samples and Bt (B total) is the sum of all the surfaces affected by bleeding in all of the tissue samples. This novel semi-quantitative method utilizes the Autodesk AutoCAD 2009 program, which is simple to use and widely available, thereby offering a new, objective and precise approach to estimate the extent of bleeding in tissue samples.

  8. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  9. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  10. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  11. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  12. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  13. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  14. Design risk analysis comparison between low-activation composite and aluminum alloy target chamber for the National Ignition Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streckert, H.H.; Schleicher, R.W.

    1997-01-01

    The baseline design for the target chamber for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) consists of an aluminum alloy spherical shell. A low-activation composite chamber (e.g., carbon fiber/epoxy) has important advantages such as enhanced environmental and safety characteristics, improved chamber accessibility due to reduced neutron-induced radioactivity, and elimination of the concrete shield. However, it is critical to determine the design and manufacturing risk for the first application. The replacement of such a critical component requires a detailed development risk assessment. A semiquantitative approach to risk assessment has been applied to this problem based on failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis. This analysis consists of a systematic method for organizing the collective judgment of the designers to identify failure modes, estimate probabilities, judge the severity of the consequence, and illustrate risk in a matrix representation. The results of the analyses indicate that the composite chamber has a reasonably high probability of success in the NIF application. The aluminum alloy chamber, however, represents a lower risk, partially based on a more mature technology. 8 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  16. Semi-quantitative analysis of post-transarterial radioembolization 90Y Microsphere position emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET/CT) images in advance liver malignancy: Comparison with 99mTc macroaggregated albumin (MAA) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhee, Seung Hong; Kim, Sung Eun; Cho, Jae Hyuk; Park, Ju Kyung; Kim, Yun Hwan; Choe, Jae Gol; Eo, Jae Seon; Park, So Yeon; Lee, Eun Sub

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between pretreatment planning technetium-99m ( 99 mTc) macroaggregated albumin (MAA) SPECT images and posttreatment transarterial radioembolization (TARE) yttirum-90 ( 90 Y) PET/CT images by comparing the ratios of tumor-to-normal liver counts. Fifty-two patients with advanced hepatic malignancy who underwent 90 Y microsphere radioembolization from January 2010 to December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients had undergone 99 mTc MAA intraarterial injection SPECT for a pretreatment evaluation of microsphere distribution and therapy planning. After the administration of 90 Y microspheres, the patients underwent posttreatment 90 Y PET/CT within 24 h. For semiquantitative analysis, the tumor-to-normal uptake ratios in 90 Y PET/CT (TNR-yp) and 99 mTc MAA SPECT (TNR-ms) as well as the tumor volumes measured in angiographic CT were obtained and analyzed. The relationship of TNR-yp and TNR-ms was evaluated by Spearman's rank correlation and Wilcoxon's matched pairs test. In a total of 79 lesions of 52 patients, the distribution of microspheres was well demonstrated in both the SPECT and PET/CT images. A good correlation was observed of between TNR-ms and TNR-yp (rho value = 0.648, p < 0.001). The TNR-yp (median 2.78, interquartile range 2.43) tend to show significantly higher values than TNR-ms (median 2.49, interquartile range of 1.55) (p = 0.012). The TNR-yp showed weak correlation with tumor volume (rho = 0.230, p = 0.041). The 99mTc MAA SPECT showed a good correlation with 90 Y PET/CT in TNR values, suggesting that 99 mTc MAA can be used as an adequate pretreatment evaluation method. However, the 99 mTc MAA SPECT image consistently shows lower TNR values compared to 90Y PET/CT, which means the possibility of underestimation of tumorous uptake in the partition dosimetry model using 99 mTc MAA SPECT. Considering that 99 mTc MAA is the only clinically available surrogate marker

  17. Semi-quantitative analysis of post-transarterial radioembolization {sup 90}Y Microsphere position emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET/CT) images in advance liver malignancy: Comparison with {sup 99m}Tc macroaggregated albumin (MAA) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhee, Seung Hong; Kim, Sung Eun; Cho, Jae Hyuk; Park, Ju Kyung; Kim, Yun Hwan; Choe, Jae Gol [Korea University Anam Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Eo, Jae Seon; Park, So Yeon; Lee, Eun Sub [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-03-15

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between pretreatment planning technetium-99m ({sup 99}mTc) macroaggregated albumin (MAA) SPECT images and posttreatment transarterial radioembolization (TARE) yttirum-90 ({sup 90}Y) PET/CT images by comparing the ratios of tumor-to-normal liver counts. Fifty-two patients with advanced hepatic malignancy who underwent {sup 90}Y microsphere radioembolization from January 2010 to December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients had undergone {sup 99}mTc MAA intraarterial injection SPECT for a pretreatment evaluation of microsphere distribution and therapy planning. After the administration of {sup 90}Y microspheres, the patients underwent posttreatment {sup 90}Y PET/CT within 24 h. For semiquantitative analysis, the tumor-to-normal uptake ratios in {sup 90}Y PET/CT (TNR-yp) and {sup 99}mTc MAA SPECT (TNR-ms) as well as the tumor volumes measured in angiographic CT were obtained and analyzed. The relationship of TNR-yp and TNR-ms was evaluated by Spearman's rank correlation and Wilcoxon's matched pairs test. In a total of 79 lesions of 52 patients, the distribution of microspheres was well demonstrated in both the SPECT and PET/CT images. A good correlation was observed of between TNR-ms and TNR-yp (rho value = 0.648, p < 0.001). The TNR-yp (median 2.78, interquartile range 2.43) tend to show significantly higher values than TNR-ms (median 2.49, interquartile range of 1.55) (p = 0.012). The TNR-yp showed weak correlation with tumor volume (rho = 0.230, p = 0.041). The 99mTc MAA SPECT showed a good correlation with {sup 90}Y PET/CT in TNR values, suggesting that {sup 99}mTc MAA can be used as an adequate pretreatment evaluation method. However, the {sup 99}mTc MAA SPECT image consistently shows lower TNR values compared to 90Y PET/CT, which means the possibility of underestimation of tumorous uptake in the partition dosimetry model using {sup 99}mTc MAA SPECT. Considering that

  18. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  19. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  1. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  2. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  3. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  4. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  5. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  6. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  7. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  8. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  9. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  10. Observer agreement in pediatric semiquantitative vertebral fracture diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siminoski, Kerry; Lentle, Brian; Matzinger, Mary Ann; Shenouda, Nazih; Ward, Leanne M.

    2014-01-01

    The Genant semiquantitative (GSQ) method has been a standard procedure for diagnosis of vertebral fractures in adults but has only recently been shown to be of clinical utility in children. Observer agreement using the GSQ method in this age group has not been described. To evaluate observer agreement on vertebral readability and vertebral fracture diagnosis using the GSQ method in pediatric vertebral morphometry. Spine radiographs of 186 children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia were evaluated independently by three radiologists using the same GSQ methodology as in adults. A subset of 100 radiographs was evaluated on two occasions. An average of 4.7% of vertebrae were unreadable for the three radiologists. Intraobserver Cohen's kappa (κ) on readability ranged from 0.434 to 0.648 at the vertebral level and from 0.416 to 0.611 at the patient level, while interobserver κ for readability had a range of 0.330 to 0.504 at the vertebral level and 0.295 to 0.467 at the patient level. Intraobserver κ for the presence of vertebral fracture had a range of 0.529 to 0.726 at the vertebral level and was 0.528 to 0.767 at the patient level. Interobserver κ for fracture at the vertebral level ranged from 0.455 to 0.548 and from 0.433 to 0.486 at the patient level. Most κ values for both intra- and interobserver agreement in applying the GSQ method to pediatric spine radiographs were in the moderate to substantial range, comparable to the performance of the technique in adult studies. The GSQ method should be considered for use in pediatric research and clinical practice. (orig.)

  11. Observer agreement in pediatric semiquantitative vertebral fracture diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siminoski, Kerry [University of Alberta, Department of Radiology and Diagnostic Imaging and Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Edmonton (Canada); Lentle, Brian [University of British Columbia, Department of Radiology, Vancouver (Canada); BC Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Vancouver (Canada); Matzinger, Mary Ann; Shenouda, Nazih [University of Ottawa, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Ottawa (Canada); Children' s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Department of Medical Imaging, Ottawa (Canada); Ward, Leanne M. [University of Ottawa, Department of Pediatrics, Children' s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Ottawa (Canada); Children' s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Research Institute, Ottawa (Canada); Collaboration: The Canadian STOPP Consortium

    2014-04-15

    The Genant semiquantitative (GSQ) method has been a standard procedure for diagnosis of vertebral fractures in adults but has only recently been shown to be of clinical utility in children. Observer agreement using the GSQ method in this age group has not been described. To evaluate observer agreement on vertebral readability and vertebral fracture diagnosis using the GSQ method in pediatric vertebral morphometry. Spine radiographs of 186 children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia were evaluated independently by three radiologists using the same GSQ methodology as in adults. A subset of 100 radiographs was evaluated on two occasions. An average of 4.7% of vertebrae were unreadable for the three radiologists. Intraobserver Cohen's kappa (κ) on readability ranged from 0.434 to 0.648 at the vertebral level and from 0.416 to 0.611 at the patient level, while interobserver κ for readability had a range of 0.330 to 0.504 at the vertebral level and 0.295 to 0.467 at the patient level. Intraobserver κ for the presence of vertebral fracture had a range of 0.529 to 0.726 at the vertebral level and was 0.528 to 0.767 at the patient level. Interobserver κ for fracture at the vertebral level ranged from 0.455 to 0.548 and from 0.433 to 0.486 at the patient level. Most κ values for both intra- and interobserver agreement in applying the GSQ method to pediatric spine radiographs were in the moderate to substantial range, comparable to the performance of the technique in adult studies. The GSQ method should be considered for use in pediatric research and clinical practice. (orig.)

  12. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  13. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  15. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  16. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  17. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  18. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  19. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  20. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  1. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  2. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  3. A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

    2018-01-01

    control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

  4. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  5. Reliability of a semi-quantitative method for dermal exposure assessment (DREAM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wendel de Joode, B. van; Hemmen, J.J. van; Meijster, T.; Major, V.; London, L.; Kromhout, H.

    2005-01-01

    Valid and reliable semi-quantitative dermal exposure assessment methods for epidemiological research and for occupational hygiene practice, applicable for different chemical agents, are practically nonexistent. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability of a recently developed

  6. Vertebral Fracture Assessment in Supine Position : Comparison by Using Conventional Semiquantitative Radiography and Visual Radiography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hospers, Ilone C.; van der Laan, Johan G.; Zeebregts, Clark J.; Nieboer, Patrick; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H. R.; Dierckx, Rudi A.; Kreeftenberg, Herman G.; Jager, Pieter L.; Slart, Riemer H. J. A.

    Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate the accuracy of vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) performed with the patient in the supine position and conventional semiquantitative radiography of the spine by using conventional visual radiography of the spine as the reference standard. Materials and

  7. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  8. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  9. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  10. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  11. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  12. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  13. A semi-quantitative reasoning methodology for filtering and ranking HAZOP results in HAZOPExpert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaidhyanathan, Ramesh; Venkatasubramanian, Venkat

    1996-01-01

    Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) analysis is the most widely used and recognized as the preferred Process Hazards Analysis (PHA) approach in the chemical process industry. Recently, a diagraph-model based framework and an expert system called HAZOPExpert was developed for automating this analysis. Upon testing the performance of the system on various industrial case studies. HAZOPExpert was found to successfully mimic the human expert's reasoning and identify the hazards. But, with the increasing complexity of the processes, the HAZOPExpert system generated a large number of consequences compared to those identified by a team of experts. This is mainly due to the strict qualitative reasoning approach implemented in the HAZOPExpert system. In order to filter and rank the consequences generated by the HAZOPExpert system, a semi-quantitative reasoning methodology is proposed using additional quantitative knowledge in the form of design and operating specifications of the process units, and process material property values. This filtering approach combines the qualitative digraph-based HAZOP models and the quantitative knowledge to eliminate the unrealizable consequences. Significant reduction in the number of consequences was obtained using this approach on an ethylene process plant HAZOP case study

  14. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  15. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  16. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  17. Development of Immunocapture-LC/MS Assay for Simultaneous ADA Isotyping and Semiquantitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Therapeutic proteins and peptides have potential to elicit immune responses resulting in anti-drug antibodies that can pose problems for both patient safety and product efficacy. During drug development immunogenicity is usually examined by risk-based approach along with specific strategies for developing “fit-for-purpose” bioanalytical approaches. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and electrochemiluminescence immunoassays are the most widely used platform for ADA detection due to their high sensitivity and throughput. During the past decade, LC/MS has emerged as a promising technology for quantitation of biotherapeutics and protein biomarkers in biological matrices, mainly owing to its high specificity, selectivity, multiplexing, and wide dynamic range. In fully taking these advantages, we describe here an immunocapture-LC/MS methodology for simultaneous isotyping and semiquantitation of ADA in human plasma. Briefly, ADA and/or drug-ADA complex is captured by biotinylated drug or anti-drug Ab, immobilized on streptavidin magnetic beads, and separated from human plasma by a magnet. ADA is then released from the beads and subjected to trypsin digestion followed by LC/MS detection of specific universal peptides for each ADA isotype. The LC/MS data are analyzed using cut-point and calibration curve. The proof-of-concept of this methodology is demonstrated by detecting preexisting ADA in human plasma. PMID:27034966

  18. Development of Immunocapture-LC/MS Assay for Simultaneous ADA Isotyping and Semiquantitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin-Zhi; Roos, David; Philip, Elsy

    2016-01-01

    Therapeutic proteins and peptides have potential to elicit immune responses resulting in anti-drug antibodies that can pose problems for both patient safety and product efficacy. During drug development immunogenicity is usually examined by risk-based approach along with specific strategies for developing "fit-for-purpose" bioanalytical approaches. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and electrochemiluminescence immunoassays are the most widely used platform for ADA detection due to their high sensitivity and throughput. During the past decade, LC/MS has emerged as a promising technology for quantitation of biotherapeutics and protein biomarkers in biological matrices, mainly owing to its high specificity, selectivity, multiplexing, and wide dynamic range. In fully taking these advantages, we describe here an immunocapture-LC/MS methodology for simultaneous isotyping and semiquantitation of ADA in human plasma. Briefly, ADA and/or drug-ADA complex is captured by biotinylated drug or anti-drug Ab, immobilized on streptavidin magnetic beads, and separated from human plasma by a magnet. ADA is then released from the beads and subjected to trypsin digestion followed by LC/MS detection of specific universal peptides for each ADA isotype. The LC/MS data are analyzed using cut-point and calibration curve. The proof-of-concept of this methodology is demonstrated by detecting preexisting ADA in human plasma.

  19. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  20. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  1. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  2. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  3. Semi-quantitative spectrographic determination of traces of elements in igneous rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, M.Q. da; Eichhoff, H.-J.

    1982-01-01

    A semi-quantitative spectrographic technique based on Harveys'method, using background radiation as internal standard is described for the analysis of trace elements in igneous rocks by the total energy method. A certain amount of the sample was completely vapourized in a DC arc with anodic excitation under argon and oxygen atmosphere, using graphite electrodes of standard dimensions. In the processed film, selected lines and adjancent backgrounds were evaluated by densitometry and the corresponding intensity ratios were calculated. Sensitivity factors were determined for the analytical lines of Co, Cu, Ga, Ni, Sc, Sr, V, Y, Zn, and Zr in geological standards (G-2, BCR-1, AGV-1, GSP-1) from the United States Geological Survey. Matrix effects between samples and standards were minimized by using the above mentioned geological standards. An average value of the sensitivity factors was employed for the calculation of the concentration of the elements in the samples. A comparison between the results obtained by this method and those from the analysis of zinc by atomic absorption is presented. This method enabled the analyses of igneous rock samples having SiO2 contents between 40 and 80%, with an error in the determinations of trace elements less than 30%.(Author) [pt

  4. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour; Zikria, Bashir; Carrino, John A.

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  5. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Musculoskeletal Radiology, Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Baltimore, MD (United States); Zikria, Bashir [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Baltimore, MD (United States); Carrino, John A. [Hospital for Special Surgery, Department of Radiology and Imaging, New York, NY (United States)

    2015-11-15

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  6. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  7. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  8. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo [KEPCO Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided.

  9. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo

    2013-01-01

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided

  10. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. A semi-quantitative study of transient ischemic attacks by diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen Feng; Guo Liang

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To explore the incidence and morphological findings of transient ischemic attacks (TIA) related-focus by diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging(DWI), and the semi-quantitative characteristics of TIA related-focus on DWI manifestation were researched. Methods: A prospective analysis was performed on 39 TIA patients who were admitted to the Pudong New Area People Hospital and who had also undergone DWI scan 3 , and rADC ratio of the lesion was (-25.8 ± 9.01)%, and rAI ratio was(59.9 ± 12.9)% and compared with that of the contralateral side there was significant difference. Conclusion: The incidence of positivity rate of DWI is more than that obtained by conventional MR imaging. The related focus of TIA are very small and the ADC value of the lesion is decreased slightly, but averge intensity is increased highly. These data may be of value in identifying those TIA patients for whom MRI evaluation with DWI is of great clinical utility. (authors)

  12. Validation of a Dish-Based Semiquantitative Food Questionnaire in Rural Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pi-I. D. Lin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A locally validated tool was needed to evaluate long-term dietary intake in rural Bangladesh. We assessed the validity of a 42-item dish-based semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ using two 3-day food diaries (FDs. We selected a random subset of 47 families (190 participants from a longitudinal arsenic biomonitoring study in Bangladesh to administer the FFQ. Two 3-day FDs were completed by the female head of the households and we used an adult male equivalent method to estimate the FD for the other participants. Food and nutrient intakes measured by FFQ and FD were compared using Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation, paired t-test, percent difference, cross-classification, weighted Kappa, and Bland–Altman analysis. Results showed good validity for total energy intake (paired t-test, p < 0.05; percent difference <10%, with no presence of proportional bias (Bland–Altman correlation, p > 0.05. After energy-adjustment and de-attenuation for within-person variation, macronutrient intakes had excellent correlations ranging from 0.55 to 0.70. Validity for micronutrients was mixed. High intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs were found for most nutrients between the two seasons, except vitamin A. This dish-based FFQ provided adequate validity to assess and rank long-term dietary intake in rural Bangladesh for most food groups and nutrients, and should be useful for studying dietary-disease relationships.

  13. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  14. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  15. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  16. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  17. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  18. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  19. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  20. A novel multi-walled carbon nanotube-based antibody conjugate for quantitative and semi-quantitative lateral flow assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenjuan; Hu, Xiaolong; Liu, Jia; Zhang, Yurong; Lu, Jianzhong; Zeng, Libo

    2017-10-01

    In this study, the multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were applied in lateral flow strips (LFS) for semi-quantitative and quantitative assays. Firstly, the solubility of MWCNTs was improved using various surfactants to enhance their biocompatibility for practical application. The dispersed MWCNTs were conjugated with the methamphetamine (MET) antibody in a non-covalent manner and then manufactured into the LFS for the quantitative detection of MET. The MWCNTs-based lateral flow assay (MWCNTs-LFA) exhibited an excellent linear relationship between the values of test line and MET when its concentration ranges from 62.5 to 1500 ng/mL. The sensitivity of the LFS was evaluated by conjugating MWCNTs with HCG antibody and the MWCNTs conjugated method is 10 times more sensitive than the one conjugated with classical colloidal gold nanoparticles. Taken together, our data demonstrate that MWCNTs-LFA is a more sensitive and reliable assay for semi-quantitative and quantitative detection which can be used in forensic analysis.

  1. Potential application of a semi-quantitative method for mercury determination in soils, sediments and gold mining residues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yallouz, A.V.; Cesar, R.G.; Egler, S.G.

    2008-01-01

    An alternative, low cost method for analyzing mercury in soil, sediment and gold mining residues was developed, optimized and applied to 30 real samples. It is semiquantitative, performed using an acid extraction pretreatment step, followed by mercury reduction and collection in a detecting paper containing cuprous iodide. A complex is formed with characteristic color whose intensity is proportional to mercury concentration in the original sample. The results are reported as range of concentration and the minimum detectable is 100 ng/g. Method quality assurance was performed by comparing results obtained using the alternative method and the Cold Vapor Atomic Absorption Spectrometry techniques. The average results from duplicate analysis by CVAAS were 100% coincident with alternative method results. The method is applicable for screening tests and can be used in regions where a preliminary diagnosis is necessary, at programs of environmental surveillance or by scientists interested in investigating mercury geochemistry. - Semi-quantitative low-cost method for mercury determination in soil, sediments and mining residues

  2. A simple semi-quantitative approach studying the in vivo degradation of regenerated silk fibroin scaffolds with different pore sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yongwei; Chen, Zhongchun; Wen, Jianchuan; Jia, Minghui; Shao, Zhengzhong; Zhao, Xia

    2017-10-01

    The biocompatibility and in vivo degradation rate of biomaterials represent critical control points in the long-term success of scaffolds for tissue restoration. In this study, new three-dimensional (3D) regenerated silk fibroin scaffolds (RSFs) were prepared by the freezing-defrosting procedure, and then were implanted beneath the dorsal skin of rats. This study aims to develop a kinetic semi-quantitative approach to assess in vivo degradation rate and biocompatibility of this kind of RSFs with different pore sizes for the first time, and to evaluate the relationship between the biodegradation and tissue responses by measuring the thickness of residual scaffolds, fibrous capsules and infiltrated tissues through integrated techniques of histology, optical imaging and image analysis. Our results showed that scaffolds with both pore sizes (74.35±10.84μm and 139.23±44.93μm, respectively) were well tolerated by host animals and pore size was found to be the rate limiting factor to the biodegradation in the subcutaneous implantation model. In addition, the biodegradation of RSFs was inflammation-mediated to a certain degree and fibroblasts may play a critical role in this process. Overall, such semi-quantitative approach was demonstrated to be a simple and effective method to assess the in vivo degradation rate, and the prepared RSFs were presented to have promising potential in tissue engineering applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  4. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  5. Análise semiquantitativa de biópsias cirúrgicas de diferentes lobos pulmonares de pacientes com pneumonia intersticial usual/fibrose pulmonar idiopática Semiquantitative analysis of surgical biopsies of distinct lung lobes of patients with usual interstitial pneumonia/idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Júlio Saraiva Gonçalves

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar as diferenças histológicas da pneumonia intersticial usual entre biópsias cirúrgicas de lobos pulmonares distintos, utilizando um escore semiquantitativo. MÉTODOS: Foram selecionados todos os pacientes com o diagnóstico de fibrose pulmonar idiopática e submetidos à biópsia cirúrgica em dois lobos distintos no Hospital São Paulo e em hospitais afiliados da Universidade Federal de São Paulo, no período entre 1995 e 2005. Foi utilizado um método semiquantitativo na avaliação histológica dos espécimes, com base em estudos prévios, aplicando-se um escore para cada local submetido à biópsia. RESULTADOS: Nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significante foi encontrada nesta amostra de pacientes que viesse alterar o estágio da doença, com base no escore utilizado. Este achado foi independente do local da biópsia (lobo médio ou segmento lingular. CONCLUSÕES: Não foram observadas diferenças histológicas significantes entre os lobos pulmonares estudados. O diagnóstico histológico definitivo de pneumonia intersticial usual não alterou o estágio da doença.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the differences between surgical biopsies of distinct lung lobes in terms of the histopathological features of usual interstitial pneumonia, using a semiquantitative score. METHODS: We selected all of the patients diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and submitted to surgical biopsy in two distinct lobes between 1995 and 2005 at the Hospital São Paulo and other hospitals operated by the Federal University of São Paulo. In the histological evaluation of the specimens, we used a semiquantitative method based on previous studies, assigning a score to each of the biopsied sites. RESULTS: In this sample of patients, we found no statistically significant differences that would alter the stage of the disease, based on the score used. This finding was independent of the biopsy site (middle lobe or lingular segment. CONCLUSIONS: No

  6. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  7. Spatial Analysis GIS Model for Identifying the Risk Induced by Landslides. A Case Study: A.T.U. of Șieu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorel Colniţă

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The risk induced by landslides on residential infrastructure, transport infrastructure and agricultural land causes problems of local management that need to be solved by reducing negative effects and decrease the frequency of their occurrence. This study followed the development and implementation of a model for identifying the risk induced by landslides through the analysis of spatial occurrence probability for landslides at the administrative territorial unit of Șieu, following the semi-quantitative method governed in Romania by G.D. no 447/2003 and then through the exposure of housing infrastructure at landslides was possible to frame landslides on risk classes. The entire approach was based on GIS spatial analysis, creating a specific detailed database of causing and triggering factors of landslides and not at least, a database for risk receptors, in this study, represented by the constructions of villages associated with the studied administrative territorial units. The final result of the model highlights the framing of constructions on qualitative risk classes at landslides, revealing the elements of infrastructure that need post and pre event measures of protection.

  8. [Histologic assessment of tissue healing of hyaline cartilage by use of semiquantitative evaluation scale].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vukasović, Andreja; Ivković, Alan; Jezek, Davor; Cerovecki, Ivan; Vnuk, Drazen; Kreszinger, Mario; Hudetz, Damir; Pećina, Marko

    2011-01-01

    samples were the errors in histologic preparation, for which some samples had to be discarded and significantly impaired the analytical quality of the others. Defects of structures surrounding the articular cartilage, e.g., subchondral bone or connective tissue, might also impair the quality of histologic analysis. Additional analyses, i.e. polarizing microscopy should be performed to determine the degree of integration of the newly formed tissue with the surrounding cartilage. The semiquantitative ICRS scale, although of great practical value, has limitations as to the objectivity of the assessment, taking into account the analytical ability of the evaluator, as well as the accuracy of semiquantitative analysis in comparison to the methods of quantitative analysis. Overall results of histologic analysis indicated that the application of TGF-beta1 gene transduced bone marrow clot could have measurable clinical effects on articular cartilage repair. The ICRS visual histological assessment scale is a valuable analytical method for cartilage repair evaluation. In this respect, further analyses of the method value would be of great importance.

  9. Semi-quantitative SPECT for anterior dislocation of the disc in the temporo-mandibular joint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oesterreich, F.U.; Jend-Rossmann, I.; Jend, H.H.; Triebel, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    SPECT-examination of the TMJ using 99m-Tc-MDP was performed in 43 patients with arthrographically proven anterior dislocation of the disc and in 30 normals. The results were evaluated visually and also in a semi-quantitative manner that took account of relative 99m Tc activity in the TMJ and of the age of the patient. In the presence of arthrographically proven anterior, but reversible, disc dislocation, the semi-quantitative method proved positive in 75% of cases (28 cases). In joints with fixed anterior dislocation (29 cases), bone changes were demonstrated in 26%. Visual evaluation was positive in 50% of reversible, and in 72% of non-reversible dislocations. Semi-quantitative SPECT of the TMJ is excellent for demonstrating bone reaction resulting from TMJ dysfunction and for indicating the severity of the joint abnormality.

  10. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  11. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  12. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  13. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  14. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  15. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  16. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  17. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  18. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  19. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  20. Cardiovascular alcification in diabetic nephropathy patients in uremic stage and analysis on its risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Yang; Lin Shan; Jia Junya; Yan Tiekun

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the prevalence of arterial vascular calcification (VC) in uremic patients undergoing diabetic nephropathy (DN) and explore its risk factors. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were collected in the patients latest diagnosed as uremia and not received dialysis treatment. The uremic patients were divided into DN group and non-diabetic nephropathy (NDN) group. And 20 healthy subjects were chosen as control group from the Physical Examination Room. The patients'sex and ages were similar in the 3 groups. VC was semi-quantitatively evaluated by plain radiographic films from abdomen, pelvis and hands. The clinical and laboratorial parameters related to VC were detected and analyzed. Results: 1)The present study included 20 (51.28%) DN uremic patients and 19 (48.72%) NDN uremic patients. The average diabetic duration in the DN patients was (8.11 ± 7.39) years. 2)Among the 39 uremic patients, VC was found on radiographic films in 29 cases (74.36%), including 23 cases (58.97%) with the con-score 1-3 and 6 cases (15.38%) with 3-6 scores. And VC was not detected in control group. Bone density analysis showed that osteopenia occupied 14 cases (35.90%) in all and the T-score was-0.81 ± 0.87. 3)Linear correlation analysis revealed that VC was correlated with serum calcium and phosphate (r=0.026, P 0.05). VC score was significantly correlated with the diabetic duration (r=0.790, P<0.001). Logistic regression revealed that the diabetes duration was the independent risk factors (P<0.05) for VC. The reflections of serum calcium and phosphate were rejected. 4)The prevalence of VC in DN group (95.0%) was higher than that in NDN group (42.1%, P<0.05). And the VC score in DN group(3.18 ± 1.77) was higher than that in NDN group (1.56 ± 0.97, P<0.05). Conclusion: There is a higher VC prevalence rate and more VC severity in DN uremic patients than in NDN patients. Diabetes duration is an independent risk factor for VC. Preventing from the high serum glucose

  1. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  2. Validation of a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire to assess food groups and nutrient intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo-Ojeda, Gabriela; Vizmanos-Lamotte, Barbara; Márquez-Sandoval, Yolanda Fabiola; Rodríguez-Rocha, Norma Patricia; López-Uriarte, Patricia Josefina; Fernández-Ballart, Joan D

    2013-11-01

    Semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) analyze average food and nutrient intake over extended periods to associate habitual dietary intake with health problems and chronic diseases. A tool of this nature applicable to both women and men is not presently available in Mexico. To validate a FFQ for adult men and women. The study was conducted on 97 participants, 61% were women. Two FFQs were administered (with a one-year interval) to measure reproducibility. To assess validity, the second FFQ was compared against dietary record (DR) covering nine days. Statistical analyses included Pearson correlations and Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC). The de-attenuation of the ICC resulting from intraindividual variability was controlled. The validity analysis was complemented by comparing the classification ability of FFQ to that of DR through concordance between intake categories and Bland-Altman plots. Reproducibility: ICC values for food groups ranged 0.42-0.87; the range for energy and nutrients was between 0.34 and 0.82. ICC values for food groups ranged 0.35-0.84; the range for energy and nutrients was between 0.36 and 0.77. Most subjects (56.7-76.3%) classified in the same or adjacent quintile for energy and nutrients using both methods. Extreme misclassification was <6.3% for all items. Bland-Altman plots reveal high concordance between FFQ and DR. FFQ produced sufficient levels of reproducibility and validity to determine average daily intake over one year. These results will enable the analysis of possible associations with chronic diseases and dietary diagnoses in adult populations of men and women. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2013. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  3. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  4. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  5. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  8. Reliability of semiquantitative 18F-FDG PET parameters derived from simultaneous brain PET/MRI: A feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jena, Amarnath; Taneja, Sangeeta; Goel, Reema; Renjen, Pushpendranath; Negi, Pradeep

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Simultaneous brain PET/MRI faces an important issue of validation of accurate MRI based attenuation correction (AC) method for precise quantitation of brain PET data unlike in PET/CT systems where the use of standard, validated CT based AC is routinely available. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of evaluation of semiquantitative 18 F-FDG PET parameters derived from simultaneous brain PET/MRI using ultrashort echo time (UTE) sequences for AC and to assess their agreement with those obtained from PET/CT examination. Methods: Sixteen patients (age range 18–73 years; mean age 49.43 (19.3) years; 13 men 3 women) underwent simultaneous brain PET/MRI followed immediately by PET/CT. Quantitative analysis of brain PET images obtained from both studies was undertaken using Scenium v.1 brain analysis software package. Twenty ROIs for various brain regions were system generated and 6 semiquantitative parameters including maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max), SUV mean, minimum SUV (SUV min), minimum standard deviation (SD min), maximum SD (SD max) and SD from mean were calculated for both sets of PET data for each patient. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) were determined to assess agreement between the various semiquantitative parameters for the two PET data sets. Results: Intra-class co-relation between the two PET data sets for SUV max, SUV mean and SD max was highly significant (p < 0.00) for all the 20 predefined brain regions with ICC > 0.9. SD from mean was also found to be statistically significant for all the predefined brain regions with ICC > 0.8. However, SUV max and SUV mean values obtained from PET/MRI were significantly lower compared to those of PET/CT for all the predefined brain regions. Conclusion: PET quantitation accuracy using the MRI based UTE sequences for AC in simultaneous brain PET/MRI is reliable in a clinical setting, being similar to that obtained using PET/CT

  9. Can semiquantitative measurements of SUVmax and cut-off values differentiate colorectal malignant from benign lessions?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tram; Hess, Søren; Petersen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    , which also precludes a clinically significant cut-off value. The same applies to SUVpeak and SUVmean while TLG measures may be more indicative. CONCLUSION: Semi-quantitative measurements of SUVmax and cut-off values proved inadequate for differentiating colorectal malignancies from benign findings...

  10. Dietary assessment in the elderly: Validation of a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klipstein-Grobusch, K.; Breeijen, J.H. den; Goldbohm, R.A.; Geleijnse, J.M.; Hofman, A.; Grobbee, D.E.; Witteman, J.C.M.

    1998-01-01

    Objective: The study was conducted to assess the relative validity of a 170-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (SFFQ) adapted for use in the elderly. Design and subjects: The study was carried out in a sample of 80 men and women aged 55-75 y participating in a community based

  11. Semi-quantitative myocardial perfusion measured by computed tomography in patients with refractory angina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qayyum, Abbas Ali; Kühl, Jørgen Tobias; Kjaer, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Computed tomography (CT) is a novel method for assessment of myocardial perfusion and has not yet been compared to rubidium-82 positron emission tomography (PET). We aimed to compare CT measured semi-quantitative myocardial perfusion with absolute quantified myocardial perfusion usi...

  12. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  13. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  14. Relationship between Plaque Echo, Thickness and Neovascularization Assessed by Quantitative and Semi-quantitative Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Different Stenosis Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yan; Feng, Jun; Dang, Ying; Zhao, Chao; Zheng, Jie; Ruan, Litao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between plaque echo, thickness and neovascularization in different stenosis groups using quantitative and semi-quantitative contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in patients with carotid atherosclerosis plaque. A total of 224 plaques were divided into mild stenosis (Quantitative and semi-quantitative methods were used to assess plaque neovascularization and determine the relationship between plaque echo, thickness and neovascularization. Correlation analysis revealed no relationship of neovascularization with plaque echo in the groups using either quantitative or semi-quantitative methods. Furthermore, there was no correlation of neovascularization with plaque thickness using the semi-quantitative method. The ratio of areas under the curve (RAUC) was negatively correlated with plaque thickness (r = -0.317, p = 0.001) in the mild stenosis group. With the quartile method, plaque thickness of the mild stenosis group was divided into four groups, with significant differences between the 1.5-2.2 mm and ≥3.5 mm groups (p = 0.002), 2.3-2.8 mm and ≥3.5 mm groups (p quantitative and quantitative CEUS methods characterizing neovascularization of plaque are equivalent with respect to assessing relationships between neovascularization, echogenicity and thickness. However, the quantitative method could fail for plaque <3.5 mm because of motion artifacts. Copyright © 2017 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Semiquantitative mercury determination in fish: a tool for poisoning prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YALLOUZ ALLEGRA V.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Human exposure to mercury intoxication through contaminated fish ingestion has been well studied, mainly among Japanese population. The Brazilian population, particulaly in the Amazon region, is now in focus due to findings of fish contamination. Major health impacts caused by mercury affect mostly people who have a regular fish diet. A continuous checking for mercury content in the most consumed fish could prevent human intoxication. A simple, non-instrumental method to allow a continuous checking of the mercury content in fish was developed. Based on this method, we are proposing a prevention action where community agents can be trained to perform fish analysis. Technical Schools and Universities located nearby the affected areas would be in charge of quality control programs for the fish analysis as well as for the selection, training and update for operators.

  16. Visual discrimination among patients with depression and schizophrenia and healthy individuals using semiquantitative color-coded fast spin-echo T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Narumi, Shinsuke [Iwate Medical University, Advanced Medical Research Center, Morioka (Japan); Shibata, Eri; Ohtsuka, Kotaro; Endoh, Jin; Sakai, Akio [Iwate Medical University, Department of Neuropsychiatry, Morioka (Japan)

    2010-02-15

    Fast spin-echo (FSE) T1-weighted (T1W) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 3T, which is sensitive to neuromelanin-related contrast, can quantitatively detect signal alterations in the locus ceruleus (LC) and the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) of depressive and schizophrenic patients; however, its qualitative diagnostic performance remains unknown. We investigated whether visual interpretation of semiquantitative color maps can be used for discriminating between depressive and schizophrenic patients and healthy individuals. We retrospectively examined 23 patients with major depression, 23 patients with schizophrenia, and 23 age-matched healthy controls by using a FSE-T1W MRI technique. Semiquantitative color maps of sections through the LC and SNc were visually interpreted by nine raters using a continuous confidence rating scale for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (Az), which reflects the performance in differentiating between depressive patients and controls, was 0.88, and the sensitivity and specificity at the maximum likelihood were 76% and 83%, respectively. In contrast, the Az value, sensitivity, and specificity values between schizophrenics and controls and between depressives and schizophrenics were 0.66 and 0.69, 42% and 48%, and 82% and 84%, respectively. Semiquantitative, color-coded FSE-T1W MRI at 3T can be used for visually differentiating depressive patients from healthy individuals with a substantially high likelihood, but this technique cannot be applied to distinguish schizophrenic patients from the other two groups. (orig.)

  17. Visual discrimination among patients with depression and schizophrenia and healthy individuals using semiquantitative color-coded fast spin-echo T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Narumi, Shinsuke; Shibata, Eri; Ohtsuka, Kotaro; Endoh, Jin; Sakai, Akio

    2010-01-01

    Fast spin-echo (FSE) T1-weighted (T1W) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 3T, which is sensitive to neuromelanin-related contrast, can quantitatively detect signal alterations in the locus ceruleus (LC) and the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) of depressive and schizophrenic patients; however, its qualitative diagnostic performance remains unknown. We investigated whether visual interpretation of semiquantitative color maps can be used for discriminating between depressive and schizophrenic patients and healthy individuals. We retrospectively examined 23 patients with major depression, 23 patients with schizophrenia, and 23 age-matched healthy controls by using a FSE-T1W MRI technique. Semiquantitative color maps of sections through the LC and SNc were visually interpreted by nine raters using a continuous confidence rating scale for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (Az), which reflects the performance in differentiating between depressive patients and controls, was 0.88, and the sensitivity and specificity at the maximum likelihood were 76% and 83%, respectively. In contrast, the Az value, sensitivity, and specificity values between schizophrenics and controls and between depressives and schizophrenics were 0.66 and 0.69, 42% and 48%, and 82% and 84%, respectively. Semiquantitative, color-coded FSE-T1W MRI at 3T can be used for visually differentiating depressive patients from healthy individuals with a substantially high likelihood, but this technique cannot be applied to distinguish schizophrenic patients from the other two groups. (orig.)

  18. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  19. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  20. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  1. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  3. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  4. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  5. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  6. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  7. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  9. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  10. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  11. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  12. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  13. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazwan AI

    2012-09-01

    workplace setting.Design: A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia and Universiti Putra Malaysia.Method: A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach.Result: Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint, which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort.Conclusion: This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ investigations and complaints procedures.Keywords: office, indoor environment quality, indoor air quality assessor, Industry Code of Practice on

  15. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  16. Analysis of the Risks and Benefits of New Chemical Entities Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Subsequently Withdrawn From the US Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patriarca, Peter A; Van Auken, R Michael; Kebschull, Scott A

    2018-01-01

    Benefit-risk evaluations of drugs have been conducted since the introduction of modern regulatory systems more than 50 years ago. Such judgments are typically made on the basis of qualitative or semiquantitative approaches, often without the aid of quantitative assessment methods, the latter having often been applied asymmetrically to place emphasis on benefit more so than harm. In an effort to preliminarily evaluate the utility of lives lost or saved, or quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost and gained as a means of quantitatively assessing the potential benefits and risks of a new chemical entity, we focused our attention on the unique scenario in which a drug was initially approved based on one set of data, but later withdrawn from the market based on a second set of data. In this analysis, a dimensionless risk to benefit ratio was calculated in each instance, based on the risk and benefit quantified in similar units. The results indicated that FDA decisions to approve the drug corresponded to risk to benefit ratios less than or equal to 0.136, and that decisions to withdraw the drug from the US market corresponded to risk to benefit ratios greater than or equal to 0.092. The probability of FDA approval was then estimated using logistic regression analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that there was a 50% probability of FDA approval if the risk to benefit ratio was 0.121, and that the probability approaches 100% for values much less than 0.121, and the probability approaches 0% for values much greater than 0.121. The large uncertainty in these estimates due to the small sample size and overlapping data may be addressed in the future by applying the methodology to other drugs.

  17. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  18. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  19. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  20. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  1. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  2. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  3. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  4. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  5. Quantitative versus semiquantitative MR imaging of cartilage in blood-induced arthritic ankles: preliminary findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doria, Andrea S.; Zhang, Ningning; Lundin, Bjorn; Hilliard, Pamela; Man, Carina; Weiss, Ruth; Detzler, Garry; Blanchette, Victor; Moineddin, Rahim; Eckstein, Felix; Sussman, Marshall S.

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in hemophilia prophylaxis have raised the need for accurate noninvasive methods for assessment of early cartilage damage in maturing joints to guide initiation of prophylaxis. Such methods can either be semiquantitative or quantitative. Whereas semiquantitative scores are less time-consuming to be performed than quantitative methods, they are prone to subjective interpretation. To test the feasibility of a manual segmentation and a quantitative methodology for cross-sectional evaluation of articular cartilage status in growing ankles of children with blood-induced arthritis, as compared with a semiquantitative scoring system and clinical-radiographic constructs. Twelve boys, 11 with hemophilia (A, n = 9; B, n = 2) and 1 with von Willebrand disease (median age: 13; range: 6-17), underwent physical examination and MRI at 1.5 T. Two radiologists semiquantitatively scored the MRIs for cartilage pathology (surface erosions, cartilage loss) with blinding to clinical information. An experienced operator applied a validated quantitative 3-D MRI method to determine the percentage area of denuded bone (dAB) and the cartilage thickness (ThCtAB) in the joints' MRIs. Quantitative and semiquantitative MRI methods and clinical-radiographic constructs (Hemophilia Joint Health Score [HJHS], Pettersson radiograph scores) were compared. Moderate correlations were noted between erosions and dAB (r = 0.62, P = 0.03) in the talus but not in the distal tibia (P > 0.05). Whereas substantial to high correlations (r range: 0.70-0.94, P < 0.05) were observed between erosions, cartilage loss, HJHS and Pettersson scores both at the distal tibia and talus levels, moderate/borderline substantial (r range: 0.55-0.61, P < 0.05) correlations were noted between dAB/ThCtAB and clinical-radiographic constructs. Whereas the semiquantitative method of assessing cartilage status is closely associated with clinical-radiographic scores in cross-sectional studies of blood-induced arthropathy

  6. Quantitative versus semiquantitative MR imaging of cartilage in blood-induced arthritic ankles: preliminary findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doria, Andrea S. [The Hospital for Sick Children, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); University of Toronto, Department of Medical Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zhang, Ningning [Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Beijing (China); Lundin, Bjorn [Skaane University Hospital and Lund University, University Hospital of Lund, Center for Medical Imaging and Physiology, Lund (Sweden); Hilliard, Pamela [The Hospital for Sick Children, Department of Rehabilitation Services, Toronto, ON (Canada); Man, Carina; Weiss, Ruth; Detzler, Garry [The Hospital for Sick Children, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); Blanchette, Victor [The Hospital for Sick Children, Department of Hematology, Toronto, ON (Canada); Moineddin, Rahim [Family and Community Medicine, Department of Public Health, Toronto, ON (Canada); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy and Musculoskeletal Research, Salzburg (Austria); Chondrometrics GmbH, Ainring (Germany); Sussman, Marshall S. [University of Toronto, Department of Medical Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); University Health Network, Department of Medical Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2014-05-15

    Recent advances in hemophilia prophylaxis have raised the need for accurate noninvasive methods for assessment of early cartilage damage in maturing joints to guide initiation of prophylaxis. Such methods can either be semiquantitative or quantitative. Whereas semiquantitative scores are less time-consuming to be performed than quantitative methods, they are prone to subjective interpretation. To test the feasibility of a manual segmentation and a quantitative methodology for cross-sectional evaluation of articular cartilage status in growing ankles of children with blood-induced arthritis, as compared with a semiquantitative scoring system and clinical-radiographic constructs. Twelve boys, 11 with hemophilia (A, n = 9; B, n = 2) and 1 with von Willebrand disease (median age: 13; range: 6-17), underwent physical examination and MRI at 1.5 T. Two radiologists semiquantitatively scored the MRIs for cartilage pathology (surface erosions, cartilage loss) with blinding to clinical information. An experienced operator applied a validated quantitative 3-D MRI method to determine the percentage area of denuded bone (dAB) and the cartilage thickness (ThCtAB) in the joints' MRIs. Quantitative and semiquantitative MRI methods and clinical-radiographic constructs (Hemophilia Joint Health Score [HJHS], Pettersson radiograph scores) were compared. Moderate correlations were noted between erosions and dAB (r = 0.62, P = 0.03) in the talus but not in the distal tibia (P > 0.05). Whereas substantial to high correlations (r range: 0.70-0.94, P < 0.05) were observed between erosions, cartilage loss, HJHS and Pettersson scores both at the distal tibia and talus levels, moderate/borderline substantial (r range: 0.55-0.61, P < 0.05) correlations were noted between dAB/ThCtAB and clinical-radiographic constructs. Whereas the semiquantitative method of assessing cartilage status is closely associated with clinical-radiographic scores in cross-sectional studies of blood

  7. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  8. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  9. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  10. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  12. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lah, J [Myongji Hospital, Goyang-si (Korea, Republic of); Manger, R; Kim, G [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  13. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  14. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  15. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  16. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  17. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  18. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  19. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  20. Validation of a Semi-Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire for Argentinean Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Dehghan, Mahshid; del Cerro, Silvia; Zhang, Xiaohe; Cuneo, Jose Maini; Linetzky, Bruno; Diaz, Rafael; Merchant, Anwar T.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) is the most commonly used method for ranking individuals based on long term food intake in large epidemiological studies. The validation of an FFQ for specific populations is essential as food consumption is culture dependent. The aim of this study was to develop a Semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire (SFFQ) and evaluate its validity and reproducibility in estimating nutrient intake in urban and rural areas of Argentina. METHODS/PRI...

  1. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  2. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  3. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  4. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  5. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  6. Pulmonary nodule characterization: A comparison of conventional with quantitative and visual semi-quantitative analyses using contrast enhancement maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petkovska, Iva; Shah, Sumit K.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.; Goldin, Jonathan G.; Brown, Matthew S.; Kim, Hyun J.; Brown, Kathleen; Aberle, Denise R.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether conventional nodule densitometry or analysis based on contrast enhancement maps of indeterminate lung nodules imaged with contrast-enhanced CT can distinguish benign from malignant lung nodules. Materials and method: Thin section, contrast-enhanced CT (baseline, and post-contrast series acquired at 45, 90,180, and 360 s) was performed on 29 patients with indeterminate lung nodules (14 benign, 15 malignant). A thoracic radiologist identified the boundary of each nodule using semi-automated contouring to form a 3D region-of-interest (ROI) on each image series. The post-contrast series having the maximum mean enhancement was then volumetrically registered to the baseline series. The two series were subtracted volumetrically and the subtracted voxels were quantized into seven color-coded bins, forming a contrast enhancement map (CEM). Conventional nodule densitometry was performed to obtain the maximum difference in mean enhancement values for each nodule from a circular ROI. Three thoracic radiologists performed visual semi-quantitative analysis of each nodule, scoring each map for: (a) magnitude and (b) heterogeneity of enhancement throughout the entire volume of the nodule on a five-point scale. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted on these features to evaluate their diagnostic efficacy. Finally, 14 quantitative texture features were calculated for each map. A statistical analysis was performed to combine the 14 texture features to a single factor. ROC analysis of the derived aggregate factor was done as an indicator of malignancy. All features were analyzed for differences between benign and malignant nodules. Results: Using 15 HU as a threshold, 93% (14/15) of malignant and 79% (11/14) of benign nodules demonstrated enhancement. The ROC curve when higher values of enhancement indicate malignancy was generated and area under the curve (AUC) was 0.76. The visually scored magnitude of enhancement was found to be

  7. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  8. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  9. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  10. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  11. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  12. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  13. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  14. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  15. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  16. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  17. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  18. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  19. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  20. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  1. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  2. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  3. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  4. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  5. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  7. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  9. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  10. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  11. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  12. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  13. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  14. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  15. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  16. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  17. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  18. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  19. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  20. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  1. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  2. Diagnostic accuracy of semi-quantitative and quantitative culture techniques for the diagnosis of catheter-related infections in newborns and molecular typing of isolated microorganisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboli, Danilo Flávio Moraes; Lyra, João César; Silva, Eliane Pessoa; Valadão, Luisa Leite; Bentlin, Maria Regina; Corrente, José Eduardo; Rugolo, Ligia Maria Suppo de Souza; da Cunha, Maria de Lourdes Ribeiro de Souza

    2014-05-22

    Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CR-BSIs) have become the most common cause of healthcare-associated bloodstream infections in neonatal intensive care units (ICUs). Microbiological evidence implicating catheters as the source of bloodstream infection is necessary to establish the diagnosis of CR-BSIs. Semi-quantitative culture is used to determine the presence of microorganisms on the external catheter surface, whereas quantitative culture also isolates microorganisms present inside the catheter. The main objective of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of these two techniques for the diagnosis of CR-BSIs in newborns from a neonatal ICU. In addition, PFGE was used for similarity analysis of the microorganisms isolated from catheters and blood cultures. Semi-quantitative and quantitative methods were used for the culture of catheter tips obtained from newborns. Strains isolated from catheter tips and blood cultures which exhibited the same antimicrobial susceptibility profile were included in the study as positive cases of CR-BSI. PFGE of the microorganisms isolated from catheters and blood cultures was performed for similarity analysis and detection of clones in the ICU. A total of 584 catheter tips from 399 patients seen between November 2005 and June 2012 were analyzed. Twenty-nine cases of CR-BSI were confirmed. Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) were the most frequently isolated microorganisms, including S. epidermidis as the most prevalent species (65.5%), followed by S. haemolyticus (10.3%), yeasts (10.3%), K. pneumoniae (6.9%), S. aureus (3.4%), and E. coli (3.4%). The sensitivity of the semi-quantitative and quantitative techniques was 72.7% and 59.3%, respectively, and specificity was 95.7% and 94.4%. The diagnosis of CR-BSIs based on PFGE analysis of similarity between strains isolated from catheter tips and blood cultures showed 82.6% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The semi-quantitative culture method showed higher

  3. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  4. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  5. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  6. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  7. Brain perfusion SPECT in patients with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease: comparison of a semiquantitative and a visual evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staffen, W.; Schoenauer, U.; Spindler, I.; Mair, A.; Iglseder, B.; Ladurner, H.G.; Zauner, H.; Bernroider, G.

    2006-01-01

    Due to the increasing importance of early recognition and differential diagnosis of dementias, cerebral perfusion scans using 'single photon emission computed tomography' (SPECT) are increasingly integrated into the examination routine. The goal of this study was to check the diagnostic validity of SPECT scans of MCI- and DAT-patients, two subgroups out of 369 persons with etiologically unclear cognitive dysfunction, which underwent an assessment program for probable dementia including cognitive testing, cranial computed tomography, ultrasound, routine laboratory testing including vascular risk factors. After exclusion of patients with no or other forms of dementia we analyzed SPECT data of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 85) and dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT; n = 78) in comparison with a healthy control group (n = 34). Visual assessment as well as a manual 'regions of interest' (ROI) regionalization of the cortex were performed, whereby a ROI/cerebellum ratio was calculated as a semi-quantitative value. Association cortex areas were assessed regarding frontal, temporal, and parietal lobes of both hemispheres. When comparing the ratios of patients with DAT and controls, we found a statistically significant reduction of the cerebral perfusion in all measured cortex areas (p < 0.001). The comparison of patients with MCI with the selected control group also established a statistically significant difference in the cerebral perfusion for the evaluated cortex areas with the exception of the left hemispheric frontal and parietal cortex. A considerable number of the MCI patients showed an MMSE-score within the normal range, but with regard to the perfusion in the right hemispheric association cortex these patients also could be distinguished unambiguously from controls. Sensitivity levels found by visual assessment were at least as high as those found by the ROI method (pathological assessment: visual 49.4 % vs. ROI 47.1 % for MCI; visual 75.6 % vs

  8. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  9. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  10. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  11. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  13. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  14. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  15. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  16. Semiquantitative SPECT myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole in patients unable to exercise. Event rate during 4 years of follow up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balestrini, V.R.; Arja, V.J.; Sandrin, A.L.; Calvo, G.R.; Gomez Bosh, Z.; Quiroga, W.; Balestrini, C.E.; Joekes, S.

    2002-01-01

    The increasingly numbers of patients (P) that can't reach an adequate level of exercise in order to evaluate CAD, lead us to use pharmacological and technical tools available for this subgroup of P. Aim: evaluate the prognostic significance of myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging with pharmacological stress in P without LBBB, unable to exercise. Material and Methods: 209 P were included. Mean age: 65 years old (39-88), male 66%. Clinical: Pre test likelihood 8: 28%; SDS 0 and SRS 0: 31.7%; SDS 0 + SRS >=1: 21%; SDS >=1: 47.3%. III) Follow up: 13 patients were early re-vascularized induced by SPECT study results, 10 patients get lost and 186 were follow up by a mean 1086 days. Cumulative events rate: 1st year SCE 9.7%, HCE 1.6%; 2nd year SCE 14%, HCE 4.3%; 3rd year SCE 17.7%, HCE 5.4%; 4th year SCE 21%, HCE 5,4%. Scintigraphic indices and events rate relationship are presented. Conclusion: There was a relationship between scintigraphic indices and hard cardiac events. The semiquantitative myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole stress was a safe test and useful to discriminate groups of P with different risk of events

  17. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  18. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  19. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  20. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  2. Comparison of semi-quantitative and quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI evaluations of vertebral marrow perfusion in a rat osteoporosis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jingqi; Xiong, Zuogang; Zhang, Jiulong; Qiu, Yuyou; Hua, Ting; Tang, Guangyu

    2017-11-14

    This study aims to investigate the technical feasibility of semi-quantitative and quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in the assessment of longitudinal changes of marrow perfusion in a rat osteoporosis model, using bone mineral density (BMD) measured by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and histopathology as the gold standards. Fifty rats were randomly assigned to the control group (n=25) and ovariectomy (OVX) group whose bilateral ovaries were excised (n=25). Semi-quantitative and quantitative DCE-MRI, micro-CT, and histopathological examinations were performed on lumbar vertebrae at baseline and 3, 6, 9, and 12 weeks after operation. The differences between the two groups in terms of semi-quantitative DCE-MRI parameter (maximum enhancement, E max ), quantitative DCE-MRI parameters (volume transfer constant, K trans ; interstitial volume, V e ; and efflux rate constant, K ep ), micro-CT parameter (BMD), and histopathological parameter (microvessel density, MVD) were compared at each of the time points using an independent-sample t test. The differences in these parameters between baseline and other time points in each group were assessed via Bonferroni's multiple comparison test. A Pearson correlation analysis was applied to assess the relationships between DCE-MRI, micro-CT, and histopathological parameters. In the OVX group, the E max values decreased significantly compared with those of the control group at weeks 6 and 9 (p=0.003 and 0.004, respectively). The K trans values decreased significantly compared with those of the control group from week 3 (pquantitative DCE-MRI, the quantitative DCE-MRI parameter K trans is a more sensitive and accurate index for detecting early reduced perfusion in osteoporotic bone.

  3. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  5. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  7. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  8. Semi-quantitative Data on Ethanol Consumption in 354 ET Cases and 370 Controls

    OpenAIRE

    Louis, Elan D.; Michalec, Monika

    2014-01-01

    The notion that there is an association between essential tremor (ET) and higher ethanol consumption has crept into the literature; however, the data are limited and conflicted. 354 ET cases and 370 matched controls were enrolled in a clinical-epidemiological study. Average current daily ethanol consumption was estimated using the Willett Semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire. The proportion of cases and controls who drank any ethanol was similar: 66.7% vs. 64.1%, p = 0.46, as was th...

  9. A simple, semi-quantitative method for measuring pulsed soft x-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahama, Y.; Du, J.; Yanagidaira, T.; Hirano, K.

    1993-01-01

    A simple semi-quantitative measurement and image processing system for pulsed soft X-rays with a time and spatial resolution is proposed. Performance of the system is examined using a cylindrical soft X-ray source generated with a plasma device. The system consists of commercial facilities which are easily obtained such as a microchannel plate-phosphor screen combination, a CCD camera, an image memory board and a personal computer. To make a quantitative measurement possible, the image processing and observation of the phosphor screen current are used in conjunction. (author)

  10. Monte Carlo simulations towards semi-quantitative prompt gamma activation imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kis, Zoltan; Belgya, Tamas; Szentmiklosi, Laszlo

    2011-01-01

    Numerous non-destructive techniques utilize neutron attenuation, scattering or capture to gain morphological, structural or elemental information about the material under study. However, few attempts have been made so far to use neutron-induced gamma radiation for 3D element mapping. The first ever facility using direct scanning for element imaging was set up at the Budapest Research Reactor. It was shown that the position-sensitive prompt-gamma detection (PGAI) enables us to determine the spatial distribution of major elements. Iterative Monte Carlo simulation technique has also been developed to provide not only qualitative but also semi-quantitative element distribution of a simple object.

  11. The level of embryonation influences detection of Ostertagia ostertagi eggs by semi-quantitative PCR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drag, Markus; Höglund, Johan; Nejsum, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (ITS2) is a candidate diagnostic marker of the pathogenic cattle nematode Ostertagia ostertagi. The aims of this study were: (i) to document and quantify how the development of O. ostertagi eggs affects ITS2 copies under different storage conditions, and (ii......) to suggest optimal storage conditions for faecal samples in a diagnostic pipeline that involves detection and semi-quantification by real-time semi-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Eggs of Ostertagia ostertagi were obtained from fresh faeces and stored at 4 °C or 25 °C under aerobic...

  12. MR Imaging-based Semi-quantitative Methods for Knee Osteoarthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    JARRAYA, Mohamed; HAYASHI, Daichi; ROEMER, Frank Wolfgang; GUERMAZI, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based semi-quantitative (SQ) methods applied to knee osteoarthritis (OA) have been introduced during the last decade and have fundamentally changed our understanding of knee OA pathology since then. Several epidemiological studies and clinical trials have used MRI-based SQ methods to evaluate different outcome measures. Interest in MRI-based SQ scoring system has led to continuous update and refinement. This article reviews the different SQ approaches for MRI-based whole organ assessment of knee OA and also discuss practical aspects of whole joint assessment. PMID:26632537

  13. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  14. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  15. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  16. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  17. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  18. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  20. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  1. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  2. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  6. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  7. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  9. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  10. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  11. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  12. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  13. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  14. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  15. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Semiquantitative dynamic computed tomography to predict response to anti-platelet therapy in acute cerebral infarction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chokyu, K.; Shimizu, K.; Fukumoto, M.; Mori, T.; Mokudai, T.; Mori, K.

    2002-01-01

    We investigated whether dynamic computed tomography (CT) in patients with acute cerebral infarction could identify patients likely to respond to anti-platelet therapy. Seventy patients underwent semiquantitative dynamic CT within 6 h as well as cerebral angiography. All then received anti-platelet therapy with a thromboxane A2 synthetase inhibitor. Peak value (pv) and time-to-peak (tp) (time-density curves) for the Sylvian fissure were extracted from dynamic CT data and standardizing interpatient data, two indices, PV/TP index and TP index, were prepared following a standard semiquantitative manner. Both PV/TP index and TP index were effective in discriminating between 48 responders (modified Rankin scale (mRS): 0 to 2) and 22 non-responders (mRS: 3 to 5, or death: 6; both P 1.1) and non-compensated rCBF. Intermediate PV/TP values could not predict outcome. Dynamic CT prior to therapy can identify patients with acute cerebral infarction who are treatable with anti-platelet therapy alone. (orig.)

  17. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  18. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  19. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  20. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  1. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  3. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  4. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  5. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  6. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  7. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  8. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  9. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  10. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  11. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  12. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  13. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  14. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  15. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  16. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2004-01-01

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  17. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  18. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  19. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  20. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  1. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  2. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  3. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  4. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  5. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  6. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  7. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  8. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  9. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  10. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  11. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  12. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  13. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  14. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  17. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  18. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  19. Analysis of competing risk parameters in irradiated prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.; Mayer, E.; Langsenlehner, U.; Hackl, A.; Pummer, K.; Quehenberger, F.; Feigl, G.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Retrospective competing risk analysis of prognostic factors in definitive-irradiated prostate cancer patients. Patients and Methods: Data of 652 patients were analyzed according to three age subgroups ( 75 years; Table 1). Pre-RT PSA values (median 13.4 ng/ml) were available for 340 patients. Adjuvant hormone therapy (n = 261) consisted either of orchiectomy (n = 151) or LHRH agonist with/without antiandrogen therapy or, in the early years, diethystilbestrol. Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (n = 31) using LHRH agonists was given 6 months before and during radiotherapy. Results: Biochemical failure was observed in 69/.340 patients, 5 years after biochemical failure, 64.9% of them also had failed clinically. The cumulative incidence of local failure (LF) and distant metastases (DM) was 9.4% and 37.2%, respectively; LF and DM at the same time were seen in 18.2%. On multivariate analysis (Tables 2 and 3), advanced stage (relative risk [RR] 4.54), pre-RT PSA > 20 ng/ml (RR 2.79) and poorly differentiated tumors (RR 2.96) were significant predictors of biochemical failure. Advanced stage increased the risk of LF (RR 2.18), DM (RR 3.66), and prostate cancer death (PCD; RR 4.30). Hormone therapy decreased the risk of biochemical failure (RR 0.67), DM (RR 0.59), and PCD (RR 0.60) without reaching statistical significance. Median follow-up was 7.6 years. Conclusion: Risk of biochemical failure was predicted by pre-RT PSA, stage, and grade; in patients with biochemical failure, the cumulative incidence of death from intercurrent diseases and PCD was 25.0% and 29.2% after 5 years, respectively. The risk of DM and PCD was predicted by stage and grade. Higher age (> 75 years) decreased the relative risk of LF, DM, and PCD significantly. (orig.)

  20. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  2. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  3. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  4. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  5. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  6. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  7. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  8. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  9. EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru STEFEA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

  10. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  11. Qualitative and Semiquantitative Elastography for the Diagnosis of Intermediate Suspicious Thyroid Nodules Based on the 2015 American Thyroid Association Guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo Ra; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Moon, Hee Jung; Yoon, Jung Hyun; Park, Vivian Y; Kwak, Jin Young

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate qualitative and semiquantitative elastography for the diagnosis of intermediate suspicious thyroid nodules based on the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. Through a retrospective search of our institutional database, 746 solid thyroid nodules found on grayscale ultrasonography, strain elastography, and ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration between June and November 2009 were collected. Among them, 80 nodules from 80 patients with an intermediate suspicion of malignancy based on the 2015 ATA guidelines that were 10 mm or larger were recruited as the final study nodules. Elastographic findings were categorized according to the criteria of Rago et al (J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2007; 92:2917-2922) and Asteria et al (Thyroid 2008; 18:523-531), and strain ratio values were calculated and recorded. The independent 2-sample t test and χ 2 test (or Fisher exact test) were used to evaluate differences in clinical parameters between benign and malignant thyroid nodules. All variables were compared by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Of the 80 nodules, 6 (7.5%) were malignant, and 74 (92.5%) were benign. No significant differences were observed in age, sex, nodule size, elasticity score, and strain ratio between benign and malignant nodules. No variables significantly predicted thyroid malignancy on the univariate analysis. On the multivariate logistic regression analysis, there were no independent variables associated with thyroid malignancy, including the elasticity score and strain ratio (all P > .05). Elastographic analysis using the elasticity score and strain ratio has limited ability to characterize the benignity or malignancy of thyroid nodules with an intermediate suspicion of malignancy based on the 2015 ATA guidelines. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

  12. Influences on patient satisfaction in healthcare centers: a semi-quantitative study over 5 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Ruth D; Nurse, Nicole; Snavely, Laura; Hackett-Zahler, Stacey; Frank, Kenice; DiTomasso, Robert A

    2017-05-19

    Knowledge of ambulatory patients' satisfaction with clinic visits help improve communication and delivery of healthcare. The goal was to examine patient satisfaction in a primary care setting, identify how selected patient and physician setting and characteristics affected satisfaction, and determine if feedback provided to medical directors over time impacted patient satisfaction. A three-phase, semi-quantitative analysis was performed using anonymous, validated patient satisfaction surveys collected from 889 ambulatory outpatients in 6 healthcare centers over 5-years. Patients' responses to 21 questions were analyzed by principal components varimax rotated factor analysis. Three classifiable components emerged: Satisfaction with Physician, Availability/Convenience, and Orderly/Time. To study the effects of several independent variables (location of clinics, patients' and physicians' age, education level and duration at the clinic), data were subjected to multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA).. Changes in the healthcare centers over time were not significantly related to patient satisfaction. However, location of the center did affect satisfaction. Urban patients were more satisfied with their physicians than rural, and inner city patients were less satisfied than urban or rural on Availability/Convenience and less satisfied than urban patients on Orderly/Time. How long a patient attended a center most affected satisfaction, with patients attending >10 years more satisfied in all three components than those attending 60 years old. Patients were significantly more satisfied with their 30-40 year-old physicians compared with those over 60. On Orderly/Time, patients were more satisfied with physicians who were in their 50's than physicians >60. Improvement in patient satisfaction includes a need for immediate, specific feedback. Although Medical Directors received feedback yearly, we found no significant changes in patient satisfaction over time. Our results

  13. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  14. Reliability Assessment of Cloud Computing Platform Based on Semiquantitative Information and Evidential Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reliability assessment method based on evidential reasoning (ER rule and semiquantitative information is proposed in this paper, where a new reliability assessment architecture including four aspects with both quantitative data and qualitative knowledge is established. The assessment architecture is more objective in describing complex dynamic cloud computing environment than that in traditional method. In addition, the ER rule which has good performance for multiple attribute decision making problem is employed to integrate different types of the attributes in assessment architecture, which can obtain more accurate assessment results. The assessment results of the case study in an actual cloud computing platform verify the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed method.

  15. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  16. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  17. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  18. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjølle, G.H.; Utne, I.B.; Gjerde, O.

    2012-01-01

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  19. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  20. New semiquantitative assessment of 123I-FP-CIT by an anatomical standardization method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takada, Seiko; Yoshimura, Mana; Shindo, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuhiro; Koizumi, Kiyoshi; Utsumi, Hiroya; Abe, Kimihiko

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated a new semiquantitative procedure to more easily and objectively estimate the striatal uptake of 123 I-FP-CIT in patients with Parkinsonian syndrome (PS) and essential tremor (ET), using an anatomical standardization method, the Neurostat. Eleven patients with PS and 8 with ET were examined by clinical assessment and 123 I-FP-CIT SPECT imaging. The modified Hoehn and Yahr Staging Scale and Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) were used to assess the stage and severity of the disease. The co-registered MR and SPECT images were created with fusion software included in Neurostat. On the cross section, which shows the largest area of striate, irregular shaped regions of interest corresponding to the striate and occipital cortex were drawn. Then the ratio of specific striatal uptake to non-specific occipital cortex, V3''(F), was calculated. Another calculation was done by VOIClassic, which is a software included in Neurostat to estimate the counts per voxel of anatomically defined regions such as caudate nucleus, putamen, occipital cortex, and total cortex. Using these count data, the ratio of specific striatal uptake to non-specific occipital cortex, V3''(OC), and total cortex, V3''(TC), was calculated. A fair linear correlation was observed between V3''(OC) and V3''(F) (y=1.53x+1.40; r=0.756; p s =-0.816). However, V3''(OC) and V3''(TC) correlated less with UPDRS (r s =-0.667 and -0.645, respectively). Semiquantitative parameters, V3''(OC) and V3''(TC), calculated by VOIClassic including the Neurostat system are useful and easily calculable parameters as well as V3''(F) for the differential diagnosis of PS from ET. (author)

  1. A semiquantitative PCR assay for assessing Perkinsus marinus infections in the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, A G; Gauthier, J D; Vasta, G R

    1995-08-01

    A 3.2-kb fragment of Perkinsus marinus DNA was cloned and sequenced. A noncoding domain was identified and targeted for the development of a semiquantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the presence of P. marinus in eastern oyster tissues. The assay involves extracting total DNA from oyster hemolymph and using 1 microgram of that DNA as template in a stringent PCR amplification with oligonucleotide primers that are specific for the P. marinus 3.2-kb fragment. With this assay, we can detect 10 pg of total P. marinus DNA per 1 microgram of oyster hemocyte DNA with ethidium bromide (EtBr) staining of agarose gels, 100 fg total P. marinus DNA with Southern blot autoradiography, and 10 fg of total P. marinus DNA with dot-blot hybridizations. We have used the sensitivity of the PCR assay to develop a method for estimating the level of P. marinus DNA in oyster hemolymph and have successfully applied this technique to gill tissues. Our semiquantitative assay uses a dilution series to essentially titrate the point at which a P. marinus DNA target is no longer amplified in a sample. We refer to this technique as "dilution endpoint" PCR. Using hemocytes obtained by withdrawing a 1-ml sample of hemolymph, this assay provides a nondestructive methodology for rapidly screening large numbers of adult oysters for the presence and quantification of P. marinus infection levels. This technique is applicable to other tissues (gills) and could potentially be applied to DNA extracts of whole larvae or spat.

  2. Information-dependent acquisition-mediated LC-MS/MS screening procedure with semiquantitative potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decaestecker, Tineke N; Vande Casteele, Sofie R; Wallemacq, Pierre E; Van Peteghem, Carlos H; Defore, Dieter L; Van Bocxlaer, Jan F

    2004-11-01

    The development of a LC-MS/MS general unknown screening procedure for toxicologically relevant substances in blood samples by means of information-dependent acquisition on a Q-TOF is reported. IDA is an artificial intelligence-based product ion scan mode providing automatic "on-the-fly" MS to MS/MS switching. By performing information-dependent scanning at two different fragmentation energies, two collision-induced dissociation product ion spectra for each of the detected compounds are generated. As such, information-rich MS/MS spectra are obtained from precursor ions not known beforehand. In addition, limitation of the MS/MS acquisition time to an acceptable minimum resulted in an almost instantaneous switch back to the MS mode. As such, this approach provided MS chromatograms that still could be of use for semiquantitative purposes. Since the switching intensity threshold, unequivocally related to the background noise, proved a critical parameter, the solid-phase extraction procedure, the liquid chromatographic conditions, and the mass spectrometric parameters all were optimized to the advantage of information-dependent acquisition. Finally, the screening procedure we developed was benchmarked, on one hand, qualitatively against the results obtained from traditional GUS approaches in a number of routine toxicological laboratories (20 samples) and, on the other hand, quantitatively with respect to its potential against established LC-MS/MS methods (7 samples). The procedure performed very well from a qualitative point of view; almost all of the drugs detected by the conventional techniques were identified, as well as additional drugs that were not previously reported. The procedure proved well-suited for an initial semiquantitative assessment, as is customary in, for example, forensic toxicology before accurate intoxication levels are determined using targeted analytical analyses.

  3. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  4. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  5. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  6. Nuclear energy: public controversies and the analysis of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Energy is a social concept, the product of social, economic, and political processes that define certain raw materials as resources and thus convert them into usable energy. Like all social concepts, energy is controversial. Out of a wide range of controversies, three are selected for analysis here: (1) the relationship of nuclear power systems to nuclear weapons proliferation; (2) the risks of terrorism and sabotage associated with the operation of nuclear power facilities, including threats to civil liberties; and (3) the problems associated with the long-term management of radioactive wastes. The final section of the paper describes various modes of analyzing risks and the perception of risks. It is concluded that it may take many decades to learn whether nuclear energy is as natural a source of electrical power as wells are of drinking water, or whether nuclear energy is a horror that mankind in the 1980s or 1990s took a hard look at and then backed away. (author)

  7. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  8. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  9. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  10. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT).