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Sample records for semiparametric additive risk

  1. Covariate selection for the semiparametric additive risk model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers covariate selection for the additive hazards model. This model is particularly simple to study theoretically and its practical implementation has several major advantages to the similar methodology for the proportional hazards model. One complication compared...... and study their large sample properties for the situation where the number of covariates p is smaller than the number of observations. We also show that the adaptive Lasso has the oracle property. In many practical situations, it is more relevant to tackle the situation with large p compared with the number...... of observations. We do this by studying the properties of the so-called Dantzig selector in the setting of the additive risk model. Specifically, we establish a bound on how close the solution is to a true sparse signal in the case where the number of covariates is large. In a simulation study, we also compare...

  2. Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored competing risks data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Lu; Lin, Dan-Yu; Zeng, Donglin

    2017-09-01

    Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed directly but rather is known to lie in an interval between two examinations. We formulate the effects of possibly time-varying (external) covariates on the cumulative incidence or sub-distribution function of competing risks (i.e., the marginal probability of failure from a specific cause) through a broad class of semiparametric regression models that captures both proportional and non-proportional hazards structures for the sub-distribution. We allow each subject to have an arbitrary number of examinations and accommodate missing information on the cause of failure. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and devise a fast and stable EM-type algorithm for its computation. We then establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the resulting estimators for the regression parameters by appealing to modern empirical process theory. In addition, we show through extensive simulation studies that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. Finally, we provide an application to a study on HIV-1 infection with different viral subtypes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-02-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based on a spline approximation of the nonparametric part of the model and the generalized estimating equations (GEE). Although the model in consideration is natural and useful in many practical applications, the literature on this model is very limited because of challenges in dealing with dependent data for nonparametric additive models. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal even if the covariance structure is misspecified. An explicit consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance is also provided. Moreover, we derive the semiparametric efficiency score and information bound under general moment conditions. By showing that our estimators achieve the semiparametric information bound, we effectively establish their efficiency in a stronger sense than what is typically considered for GEE. The derivation of our asymptotic results relies heavily on the empirical processes tools that we develop for the longitudinal/clustered data. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2014 ISI/BS.

  4. Evaluating Portfolio Value-At-Risk Using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.V.K. Rombouts; M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.

  5. Maximum likelihood estimation of semiparametric mixture component models for competing risks data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Huang, Xuelin

    2014-09-01

    In the analysis of competing risks data, the cumulative incidence function is a useful quantity to characterize the crude risk of failure from a specific event type. In this article, we consider an efficient semiparametric analysis of mixture component models on cumulative incidence functions. Under the proposed mixture model, latency survival regressions given the event type are performed through a class of semiparametric models that encompasses the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model, allowing for time-dependent covariates. The marginal proportions of the occurrences of cause-specific events are assessed by a multinomial logistic model. Our mixture modeling approach is advantageous in that it makes a joint estimation of model parameters associated with all competing risks under consideration, satisfying the constraint that the cumulative probability of failing from any cause adds up to one given any covariates. We develop a novel maximum likelihood scheme based on semiparametric regression analysis that facilitates efficient and reliable estimation. Statistical inferences can be conveniently made from the inverse of the observed information matrix. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. We validate small sample properties with simulations and demonstrate the methodology with a data set from a study of follicular lymphoma. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  6. Density prediction and dimensionality reduction of mid-term electricity demand in China: A new semiparametric-based additive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao, Zhen; Yang, Shan-Lin; Gao, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new stationary time series smoothing-based semiparametric model is established. • A novel semiparametric additive model based on piecewise smooth is proposed. • We model the uncertainty of data distribution for mid-term electricity forecasting. • We provide efficient long horizon simulation and extraction for external variables. • We provide stable and accurate density predictions for mid-term electricity demand. - Abstract: Accurate mid-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient electric planning, budgeting and operating decisions. Mid-term electricity demand forecasting is notoriously complicated, since the demand is subject to a range of external drivers, such as climate change, economic development, which will exhibit monthly, seasonal, and annual complex variations. Conventional models are based on the assumption that original data is stable and normally distributed, which is generally insignificant in explaining actual demand pattern. This paper proposes a new semiparametric additive model that, in addition to considering the uncertainty of the data distribution, includes practical discussions covering the applications of the external variables. To effectively detach the multi-dimensional volatility of mid-term demand, a novel piecewise smooth method which allows reduction of the data dimensionality is developed. Besides, a semi-parametric procedure that makes use of bootstrap algorithm for density forecast and model estimation is presented. Two typical cases in China are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results suggest that both meteorological and economic variables play a critical role in mid-term electricity consumption prediction in China, while the extracted economic factor is adequate to reveal the potentially complex relationship between electricity consumption and economic fluctuation. Overall, the proposed model can be easily applied to mid-term demand forecasting, and

  7. Flexible semiparametric joint modeling: an application to estimate individual lung function decline and risk of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic surveillance of lung function is key to clinical care of individuals with cystic fibrosis, but lung function decline is nonlinear and often impacted by acute respiratory events known as pulmonary exacerbations. Statistical models are needed to simultaneously estimate lung function decline while providing risk estimates for the onset of pulmonary exacerbations, in order to identify relevant predictors of declining lung function and understand how these associations could be used to predict the onset of pulmonary exacerbations. Methods Using longitudinal lung function (FEV1 measurements and time-to-event data on pulmonary exacerbations from individuals in the United States Cystic Fibrosis Registry, we implemented a flexible semiparametric joint model consisting of a mixed-effects submodel with regression splines to fit repeated FEV1 measurements and a time-to-event submodel for possibly censored data on pulmonary exacerbations. We contrasted this approach with methods currently used in epidemiological studies and highlight clinical implications. Results The semiparametric joint model had the best fit of all models examined based on deviance information criterion. Higher starting FEV1 implied more rapid lung function decline in both separate and joint models; however, individualized risk estimates for pulmonary exacerbation differed depending upon model type. Based on shared parameter estimates from the joint model, which accounts for the nonlinear FEV1 trajectory, patients with more positive rates of change were less likely to experience a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 rate of change = 0.566, 95% CI 0.516–0.619, and having higher absolute FEV1 also corresponded to lower risk of having a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 = 0.856, 95% CI 0.781–0.937. At the population level, both submodels indicated significant effects of birth

  8. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Efficient Semiparametric Marginal Estimation for the Partially Linear Additive Model for Longitudinal/Clustered Data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond; Maity, Arnab; Mammen, Enno; Yu, Kyusang

    2009-01-01

    We consider the efficient estimation of a regression parameter in a partially linear additive nonparametric regression model from repeated measures data when the covariates are multivariate. To date, while there is some literature in the scalar covariate case, the problem has not been addressed in the multivariate additive model case. Ours represents a first contribution in this direction. As part of this work, we first describe the behavior of nonparametric estimators for additive models with repeated measures when the underlying model is not additive. These results are critical when one considers variants of the basic additive model. We apply them to the partially linear additive repeated-measures model, deriving an explicit consistent estimator of the parametric component; if the errors are in addition Gaussian, the estimator is semiparametric efficient. We also apply our basic methods to a unique testing problem that arises in genetic epidemiology; in combination with a projection argument we develop an efficient and easily computed testing scheme. Simulations and an empirical example from nutritional epidemiology illustrate our methods.

  10. Efficient Semiparametric Marginal Estimation for the Partially Linear Additive Model for Longitudinal/Clustered Data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond

    2009-04-23

    We consider the efficient estimation of a regression parameter in a partially linear additive nonparametric regression model from repeated measures data when the covariates are multivariate. To date, while there is some literature in the scalar covariate case, the problem has not been addressed in the multivariate additive model case. Ours represents a first contribution in this direction. As part of this work, we first describe the behavior of nonparametric estimators for additive models with repeated measures when the underlying model is not additive. These results are critical when one considers variants of the basic additive model. We apply them to the partially linear additive repeated-measures model, deriving an explicit consistent estimator of the parametric component; if the errors are in addition Gaussian, the estimator is semiparametric efficient. We also apply our basic methods to a unique testing problem that arises in genetic epidemiology; in combination with a projection argument we develop an efficient and easily computed testing scheme. Simulations and an empirical example from nutritional epidemiology illustrate our methods.

  11. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2014-01-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

  12. Identifying Some Risk Factors for the Time to Death of the Elderly Using the Semi-Parametric Blended Model of Survival Analysis With Competing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samane Hajiabbasi

    2018-01-01

    Conclusion In single-variable fitting, age, history of myocardial infarction, history of stroke, and kidney problems were identified to have significant effects on the time to death of the elderly. Based on one-variable semi-parametric competing risk mixture fitted models, more significant risk factors for the time to death of elderly was identified when compared with a fitted multivariate mode to the data. This implies that the role of some independent variables can be explained by other independent variables.

  13. Marginal longitudinal semiparametric regression via penalized splines

    KAUST Repository

    Al Kadiri, M.

    2010-08-01

    We study the marginal longitudinal nonparametric regression problem and some of its semiparametric extensions. We point out that, while several elaborate proposals for efficient estimation have been proposed, a relative simple and straightforward one, based on penalized splines, has not. After describing our approach, we then explain how Gibbs sampling and the BUGS software can be used to achieve quick and effective implementation. Illustrations are provided for nonparametric regression and additive models.

  14. Marginal longitudinal semiparametric regression via penalized splines

    KAUST Repository

    Al Kadiri, M.; Carroll, R.J.; Wand, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    We study the marginal longitudinal nonparametric regression problem and some of its semiparametric extensions. We point out that, while several elaborate proposals for efficient estimation have been proposed, a relative simple and straightforward one, based on penalized splines, has not. After describing our approach, we then explain how Gibbs sampling and the BUGS software can be used to achieve quick and effective implementation. Illustrations are provided for nonparametric regression and additive models.

  15. Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data

    CERN Document Server

    Tsiatis, Anastasios A

    2006-01-01

    Missing data arise in almost all scientific disciplines. In many cases, missing data in an analysis is treated in a casual and ad-hoc manner, leading to invalid inferences and erroneous conclusions. This book summarizes knowledge regarding the theory of estimation for semiparametric models with missing data.

  16. Multivariate and semiparametric kernel regression

    OpenAIRE

    Härdle, Wolfgang; Müller, Marlene

    1997-01-01

    The paper gives an introduction to theory and application of multivariate and semiparametric kernel smoothing. Multivariate nonparametric density estimation is an often used pilot tool for examining the structure of data. Regression smoothing helps in investigating the association between covariates and responses. We concentrate on kernel smoothing using local polynomial fitting which includes the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Some theory on the asymptotic behavior and bandwidth selection is pro...

  17. Semiparametric Inference in a GARCH-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    A new semiparametric estimator for an empirical asset pricing model with general nonpara- metric risk-return tradeoff and a GARCH process for the underlying volatility is introduced. The estimator does not rely on any initial parametric estimator of the conditional mean func- tion, and this feature...... facilitates the derivation of asymptotic theory under possible nonlinearity of unspecified form of the risk-return tradeoff. Besides the nonlinear GARCH-in-mean effect, our specification accommodates exogenous regressors that are typically used as conditioning variables entering linearly in the mean equation...... with the fully parametric approach and the iterative semiparametric approach using a parametric initial esti- mate proposed by Conrad and Mammen (2008). An empirical application to the daily S&P 500 stock market returns suggests that the linear relation between conditional expected return and conditional...

  18. Semiparametric regression during 2003–2007

    KAUST Repository

    Ruppert, David; Wand, M.P.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    Semiparametric regression is a fusion between parametric regression and nonparametric regression that integrates low-rank penalized splines, mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian methodology – thus allowing more streamlined handling of longitudinal and spatial correlation. We review progress in the field over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007. We find semiparametric regression to be a vibrant field with substantial involvement and activity, continual enhancement and widespread application.

  19. A Bayesian goodness of fit test and semiparametric generalization of logistic regression with measurement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

    2013-06-01

    Logistic regression is a popular tool for risk analysis in medical and population health science. With continuous response data, it is common to create a dichotomous outcome for logistic regression analysis by specifying a threshold for positivity. Fitting a linear regression to the nondichotomized response variable assuming a logistic sampling model for the data has been empirically shown to yield more efficient estimates of odds ratios than ordinary logistic regression of the dichotomized endpoint. We illustrate that risk inference is not robust to departures from the parametric logistic distribution. Moreover, the model assumption of proportional odds is generally not satisfied when the condition of a logistic distribution for the data is violated, leading to biased inference from a parametric logistic analysis. We develop novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology for testing goodness of fit of parametric logistic regression with continuous measurement data. The testing procedures hold for any cutoff threshold and our approach simultaneously provides the ability to perform semiparametric risk estimation. Bayes factors are calculated using the Savage-Dickey ratio for testing the null hypothesis of logistic regression versus a semiparametric generalization. We propose a fully Bayesian and a computationally efficient empirical Bayesian approach to testing, and we present methods for semiparametric estimation of risks, relative risks, and odds ratios when parametric logistic regression fails. Theoretical results establish the consistency of the empirical Bayes test. Results from simulated data show that the proposed approach provides accurate inference irrespective of whether parametric assumptions hold or not. Evaluation of risk factors for obesity shows that different inferences are derived from an analysis of a real data set when deviations from a logistic distribution are permissible in a flexible semiparametric framework. © 2013, The International Biometric

  20. SEMIPARAMETRIC VERSUS PARAMETRIC CLASSIFICATION MODELS - AN APPLICATION TO DIRECT MARKETING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    BULT, [No Value

    In this paper we are concerned with estimation of a classification model using semiparametric and parametric methods. Benefits and limitations of semiparametric models in general, and of Manski's maximum score method in particular, are discussed. The maximum score method yields consistent estimates

  1. Inequality and development: Evidence from semiparametric estimation with panel data

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, X.; Li, Kui-Wai

    2011-01-01

    Evidences from nonparametric and semiparametric unbalanced panel data models with fixed effects show that Kuznet’s inverted-U relationship is confirmed when economic development reaches a threshold. The model tests justify semiparametric specification. The integrated net contribution of control variables to inequality reduction is significant.

  2. Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-01-01

    A semiparametric copula model for bivariate survival data is characterized by a parametric copula model of dependence and nonparametric models of two marginal survival functions. Efficient estimation for the semiparametric copula model has been recently studied for the complete data case. When the survival data are censored, semiparametric efficient estimation has only been considered for some specific copula models such as the Gaussian copulas. In this paper, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound and efficient estimation for general semiparametric copula models for possibly censored data. We construct an approximate maximum likelihood estimator by approximating the log baseline hazard functions with spline functions. We show that our estimates of the copula dependence parameter and the survival functions are asymptotically normal and efficient. Simple consistent covariance estimators are also provided. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  3. Semi-parametric estimation for ARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raed Alzghool

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we conduct semi-parametric estimation for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH model with Quasi likelihood (QL and Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL estimation methods. The QL approach relaxes the distributional assumptions of ARCH processes. The AQL technique is obtained from the QL method when the process conditional variance is unknown. We present an application of the methods to a daily exchange rate series. Keywords: ARCH model, Quasi likelihood (QL, Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL, Martingale difference, Kernel estimator

  4. Semiparametric regression for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Keele, Luke John

    2008-01-01

    An introductory guide to smoothing techniques, semiparametric estimators, and their related methods, this book describes the methodology via a selection of carefully explained examples and data sets. It also demonstrates the potential of these techniques using detailed empirical examples drawn from the social and political sciences. Each chapter includes exercises and examples and there is a supplementary website containing all the datasets used, as well as computer code, allowing readers to replicate every analysis reported in the book. Includes software for implementing the methods in S-Plus and R.

  5. A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

  6. Bootstrap consistency for general semiparametric M-estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2010-01-01

    , and apply to a broad class of bootstrap methods with exchangeable ootstrap weights. This paper provides a first general theoretical study of the bootstrap in semiparametric models. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

  7. Semi-parametrical NAA method for paper analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medeiros, Ilca M.M.A.; Zamboni, Cibele B.; Cruz, Manuel T.F. da; Morel, Jose C.O.; Park, Song W.

    2007-01-01

    The semi-parametric Neutron Activation Analysis technique, using Au as flux monitor, was applied to determine element concentrations in white paper, usually commercialized, aiming to check the quality control of its production in industrial process. (author)

  8. Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan; Genton, Marc G.

    2010-01-01

    which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n

  9. Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

    KAUST Repository

    Sinha, Samiran

    2009-08-10

    We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values of the exposure are never observed. Motivated by nutritional epidemiological data, we consider the setting where a surrogate covariate is recorded in the primary data, and a calibration data set contains information on the surrogate variable and repeated measurements of an unbiased instrumental variable of the true exposure. We develop a flexible Bayesian method where not only is the relationship between the disease and exposure variable treated semiparametrically, but also the relationship between the surrogate and the true exposure is modeled semiparametrically. The two nonparametric functions are modeled simultaneously via B-splines. In addition, we model the distribution of the exposure variable as a Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions, thus making its modeling essentially nonparametric and placing this work into the context of functional measurement error modeling. We apply our method to the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study and examine its performance in a simulation study.

  10. Semiparametric Mixtures of Regressions with Single-index for Model Based Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional predictors, the new semiparametric models can easily incorporate high dimensional predictors into the nonparametric components. The proposed models are very general, and many of the recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models a...

  11. Dose-response curve estimation: a semiparametric mixture approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; Yin, Guosheng

    2011-12-01

    In the estimation of a dose-response curve, parametric models are straightforward and efficient but subject to model misspecifications; nonparametric methods are robust but less efficient. As a compromise, we propose a semiparametric approach that combines the advantages of parametric and nonparametric curve estimates. In a mixture form, our estimator takes a weighted average of the parametric and nonparametric curve estimates, in which a higher weight is assigned to the estimate with a better model fit. When the parametric model assumption holds, the semiparametric curve estimate converges to the parametric estimate and thus achieves high efficiency; when the parametric model is misspecified, the semiparametric estimate converges to the nonparametric estimate and remains consistent. We also consider an adaptive weighting scheme to allow the weight to vary according to the local fit of the models. We conduct extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed methods and illustrate them with two real examples. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Semiparametric Power Envelopes for Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansson, Michael

    This paper derives asymptotic power envelopes for tests of the unit root hypothesis in a zero-mean AR(1) model. The power envelopes are derived using the limits of experiments approach and are semiparametric in the sense that the underlying error distribution is treated as an unknown...

  13. Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

  14. Bootstrap consistency for general semiparametric M-estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2010-10-01

    Consider M-estimation in a semiparametric model that is characterized by a Euclidean parameter of interest and an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. As a general purpose approach to statistical inferences, the bootstrap has found wide applications in semiparametric M-estimation and, because of its simplicity, provides an attractive alternative to the inference approach based on the asymptotic distribution theory. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical justifications for the use of bootstrap as a semiparametric inferential tool. We show that, under general conditions, the bootstrap is asymptotically consistent in estimating the distribution of the M-estimate of Euclidean parameter; that is, the bootstrap distribution asymptotically imitates the distribution of the M-estimate. We also show that the bootstrap confidence set has the asymptotically correct coverage probability. These general onclusions hold, in particular, when the nuisance parameter is not estimable at root-n rate, and apply to a broad class of bootstrap methods with exchangeable ootstrap weights. This paper provides a first general theoretical study of the bootstrap in semiparametric models. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

  15. The Semiparametric Normal Variance-Mean Mixture Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Lars

    1997-01-01

    We discuss the normal vairance-mean mixture model from a semi-parametric point of view, i.e. we let the mixing distribution belong to a non parametric family. The main results are consistency of the non parametric maximum likelihood estimat or in this case, and construction of an asymptotically...... normal and efficient estimator....

  16. Semiparametric copula models for biometric score level fusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanto, N.

    2016-01-01

    In biometric recognition, biometric samples (images of faces, fingerprints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and matchers (classifiers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If we model the joint distribution of all scores by a (semiparametric) Gaussian

  17. Model selection for semiparametric marginal mean regression accounting for within-cluster subsampling variability and informative cluster size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2018-03-13

    We propose a model selection criterion for semiparametric marginal mean regression based on generalized estimating equations. The work is motivated by a longitudinal study on the physical frailty outcome in the elderly, where the cluster size, that is, the number of the observed outcomes in each subject, is "informative" in the sense that it is related to the frailty outcome itself. The new proposal, called Resampling Cluster Information Criterion (RCIC), is based on the resampling idea utilized in the within-cluster resampling method (Hoffman, Sen, and Weinberg, 2001, Biometrika 88, 1121-1134) and accommodates informative cluster size. The implementation of RCIC, however, is free of performing actual resampling of the data and hence is computationally convenient. Compared with the existing model selection methods for marginal mean regression, the RCIC method incorporates an additional component accounting for variability of the model over within-cluster subsampling, and leads to remarkable improvements in selecting the correct model, regardless of whether the cluster size is informative or not. Applying the RCIC method to the longitudinal frailty study, we identify being female, old age, low income and life satisfaction, and chronic health conditions as significant risk factors for physical frailty in the elderly. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Risks associated with endotoxins in feed additives produced by fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, R John; Gropp, Jürgen; Dierick, Noël; Costa, Lucio G; Martelli, Giovanna; Brantom, Paul G; Bampidis, Vasileios; Renshaw, Derek W; Leng, Lubomir

    2016-01-15

    Increasingly, feed additives for livestock, such as amino acids and vitamins, are being produced by Gram-negative bacteria, particularly Escherichia coli. The potential therefore exists for animals, consumers and workers to be exposed to possibly harmful amounts of endotoxin from these products. The aim of this review was to assess the extent of the risk from endotoxins in feed additives and to calculate how such risk can be assessed from the properties of the additive. Livestock are frequently exposed to a relatively high content of endotoxin in the diet: no additional hazard to livestock would be anticipated if the endotoxin concentration of the feed additive falls in the same range as feedstuffs. Consumer exposure will be unaffected by the consumption of food derived from animals receiving endotoxin-containing feed, because the small concentrations of endotoxin absorbed do not accumulate in edible tissues. In contrast, workers processing a dusty additive may be exposed to hazardous amounts of endotoxin even if the endotoxin concentration of the product is low. A calculation method is proposed to compare the potential risk to the worker, based on the dusting potential, the endotoxin concentration and technical guidance of the European Food Safety Authority, with national exposure limits.

  19. Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

    2015-11-01

    One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

  20. Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2010-07-05

    We study generalized linear latent variable models without requiring a distributional assumption of the latent variables. Using a geometric approach, we derive consistent semiparametric estimators. We demonstrate that these models have a property which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n consistency and asymptotic normality. We explain the computational implementation of our method and illustrate the numerical performance of the estimators in finite sample situations via extensive simulation studies. The advantage of our estimators over the existing likelihood approach is also shown via numerical comparison. We employ the method to analyse a real data example from economics. © 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

  1. Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

  2. Energy consumption and income. A semiparametric panel data analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen-Van, Phu [BETA, CNRS and Universite de Strasbourg, 61 avenue de la Foret Noire, F-67085 Strasbourg (France)

    2010-05-15

    This paper proposes a semiparametric analysis for the study of the relationship between energy consumption per capita and income per capita for an international panel dataset. It shows little evidence for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve for energy consumption. Energy consumption increases with income for a majority of countries and then stabilizes for very high income countries. Neither changes in energy structure nor macroeconomic cycle/technological change have significant effect on energy consumption. (author)

  3. Hyperbolic and semi-parametric models in finance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, N. H.; Kiesel, Rüdiger

    2001-02-01

    The benchmark Black-Scholes-Merton model of mathematical finance is parametric, based on the normal/Gaussian distribution. Its principal parametric competitor, the hyperbolic model of Barndorff-Nielsen, Eberlein and others, is briefly discussed. Our main theme is the use of semi-parametric models, incorporating the mean vector and covariance matrix as in the Markowitz approach, plus a non-parametric part, a scalar function incorporating features such as tail-decay. Implementation is also briefly discussed.

  4. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  5. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  6. Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

    2007-01-01

    Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

  7. Improving risk assessment of color additives in medical device polymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekar, Vaishnavi; Janes, Dustin W; Forrey, Christopher; Saylor, David M; Bajaj, Akhil; Duncan, Timothy V; Zheng, Jiwen; Riaz Ahmed, Kausar B; Casey, Brendan J

    2018-01-01

    Many polymeric medical device materials contain color additives which could lead to adverse health effects. The potential health risk of color additives may be assessed by comparing the amount of color additive released over time to levels deemed to be safe based on available toxicity data. We propose a conservative model for exposure that requires only the diffusion coefficient of the additive in the polymer matrix, D, to be specified. The model is applied here using a model polymer (poly(ether-block-amide), PEBAX 2533) and color additive (quinizarin blue) system. Sorption experiments performed in an aqueous dispersion of quinizarin blue (QB) into neat PEBAX yielded a diffusivity D = 4.8 × 10 -10 cm 2  s -1 , and solubility S = 0.32 wt %. On the basis of these measurements, we validated the model by comparing predictions to the leaching profile of QB from a PEBAX matrix into physiologically representative media. Toxicity data are not available to estimate a safe level of exposure to QB, as a result, we used a Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) value for QB of 90 µg/adult/day. Because only 30% of the QB is released in the first day of leaching for our film thickness and calculated D, we demonstrate that a device may contain significantly more color additive than the TTC value without giving rise to a toxicological concern. The findings suggest that an initial screening-level risk assessment of color additives and other potentially toxic compounds found in device polymers can be improved. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 106B: 310-319, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Bayesian spatial semi-parametric modeling of HIV variation in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Ngesa

    Full Text Available Spatial statistics has seen rapid application in many fields, especially epidemiology and public health. Many studies, nonetheless, make limited use of the geographical location information and also usually assume that the covariates, which are related to the response variable, have linear effects. We develop a Bayesian semi-parametric regression model for HIV prevalence data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC. The model is applied to HIV prevalence data among men in Kenya, derived from the Kenya AIDS indicator survey, with n = 3,662. Past studies have concluded that HIV infection has a nonlinear association with age. In this study a smooth function based on penalized regression splines is used to estimate this nonlinear effect. Other covariates were assumed to have a linear effect. Spatial references to the counties were modeled as both structured and unstructured spatial effects. We observe that circumcision reduces the risk of HIV infection. The results also indicate that men in the urban areas were more likely to be infected by HIV as compared to their rural counterpart. Men with higher education had the lowest risk of HIV infection. A nonlinear relationship between HIV infection and age was established. Risk of HIV infection increases with age up to the age of 40 then declines with increase in age. Men who had STI in the last 12 months were more likely to be infected with HIV. Also men who had ever used a condom were found to have higher likelihood to be infected by HIV. A significant spatial variation of HIV infection in Kenya was also established. The study shows the practicality and flexibility of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model in analyzing epidemiological data.

  9. Anticardiolipin antibodies in proliferative diabetic retinopathy: An additional risk factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahin, Maha; ElDiasty, Amany M; Mabed, Mohamed

    2009-01-01

    To report the prevalence of anticardiolipin antibodies in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) having high-risk criteria (HRC). Diabetic patients having PDR with HRC and diabetics free of retinopathy were compared for the presence of anticardiolipin antibodies. Among the 34 patients, 6 (17.7%) of diabetics having PDR with HRC were positive for anticardiolipin antibodies. There was no significant association of aCL antibodies with sex or type of diabetes. Using Pearson's correlation test, no significant associations of aCL antibodies with duration of diabetes or age of patients were found. All patients who were positive for anticardiolipin antibodies had PDR with HRC. The difference was statistically significant. Presence of anticardiolipin antibodies may represent an additional risk factor for PDR. (author)

  10. tgp: An R Package for Bayesian Nonstationary, Semiparametric Nonlinear Regression and Design by Treed Gaussian Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Gramacy

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The tgp package for R is a tool for fully Bayesian nonstationary, semiparametric nonlinear regression and design by treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. Special cases also implemented include Bayesian linear models, linear CART, stationary separable and isotropic Gaussian processes. In addition to inference and posterior prediction, the package supports the (sequential design of experiments under these models paired with several objective criteria. 1-d and 2-d plotting, with higher dimension projection and slice capabilities, and tree drawing functions (requiring maptree and combinat packages, are also provided for visualization of tgp objects.

  11. Risk analysis of sulfites used as food additives in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian Bo; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua Li; Zhang, Ji Yue; Luo, Peng Jie; Zhu, Lei; Wang, Zhu Tian

    2014-02-01

    This study was to analyze the risk of sulfites in food consumed by the Chinese people and assess the health protection capability of maximum-permitted level (MPL) of sulfites in GB 2760-2011. Sulfites as food additives are overused or abused in many food categories. When the MPL in GB 2760-2011 was used as sulfites content in food, the intake of sulfites in most surveyed populations was lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Excess intake of sulfites was found in all the surveyed groups when a high percentile of sulfites in food was in taken. Moreover, children aged 1-6 years are at a high risk to intake excess sulfites. The primary cause for the excess intake of sulfites in Chinese people is the overuse and abuse of sulfites by the food industry. The current MPL of sulfites in GB 2760-2011 protects the health of most populations. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  12. Semiparametric estimation of covariance matrices for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Wu, Yichao

    2008-12-01

    Estimation of longitudinal data covariance structure poses significant challenges because the data are usually collected at irregular time points. A viable semiparametric model for covariance matrices was proposed in Fan, Huang and Li (2007) that allows one to estimate the variance function nonparametrically and to estimate the correlation function parametrically via aggregating information from irregular and sparse data points within each subject. However, the asymptotic properties of their quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of parameters in the covariance model are largely unknown. In the current work, we address this problem in the context of more general models for the conditional mean function including parametric, nonparametric, or semi-parametric. We also consider the possibility of rough mean regression function and introduce the difference-based method to reduce biases in the context of varying-coefficient partially linear mean regression models. This provides a more robust estimator of the covariance function under a wider range of situations. Under some technical conditions, consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained for the QMLE of the parameters in the correlation function. Simulation studies and a real data example are used to illustrate the proposed approach.

  13. Reprint of "Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in four endemic provinces of Zambia using semiparametric Poisson regression".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimaponda-Mataa, Nzooma M; Tembo-Mwase, Enala; Gebreslasie, Michael; Achia, Thomas N O; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2017-11-01

    Although malaria morbidity and mortality are greatly reduced globally owing to great control efforts, the disease remains the main contributor. In Zambia, all provinces are malaria endemic. However, the transmission intensities vary mainly depending on environmental factors as they interact with the vectors. Generally in Africa, possibly due to the varying perspectives and methods used, there is variation on the relative importance of malaria risk determinants. In Zambia, the role climatic factors play on malaria case rates has not been determined in combination of space and time using robust methods in modelling. This is critical considering the reversal in malaria reduction after the year 2010 and the variation by transmission zones. Using a geoadditive or structured additive semiparametric Poisson regression model, we determined the influence of climatic factors on malaria incidence in four endemic provinces of Zambia. We demonstrate a strong positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation as well as minimum temperature. The risk of malaria was 95% lower in Lusaka (ARR=0.05, 95% CI=0.04-0.06) and 68% lower in the Western Province (ARR=0.31, 95% CI=0.25-0.41) compared to Luapula Province. North-western Province did not vary from Luapula Province. The effects of geographical region are clearly demonstrated by the unique behaviour and effects of minimum and maximum temperatures in the four provinces. Environmental factors such as landscape in urbanised places may also be playing a role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Additional risk of end-of-the-pipe geoengineering technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2014-05-01

    qualitatively from the known successes. They do not tackle the initial cause, namely the carbon-dioxide inputs that are too high. This is their additional specific risk. 'The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors', conclude Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon (2010) when reviewing social and ethical implications of geoengineering the climate. It is to debate in that context that most geoengineering technologies are 'end of the pipe technologies', what involves an additional specific risk. Should these technologies be part of the toolbox to tackle anthropogenic climate change? Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon 2010, Geoengineering the climate: The social and ethical implications, Environment Vol. 52.

  15. Separating risk in education from heterogeneity: a semiparametric approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazza, J.; van Ophem, H.

    2010-01-01

    Returns to education are variable within the same educational group. If uncertain payoffs are a concern for individuals when selecting education, wage variance is the resultant of unobserved heterogeneity and pure uncertainty. The first element is known to the individual, but unknown to the

  16. Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

    KAUST Repository

    Sinha, Samiran; Mallick, Bani K.; Kipnis, Victor; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values

  17. Using Spline Regression in Semi-Parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis: An Application to Polish Dairy Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    of specifying an unsuitable functional form and thus, model misspecification and biased parameter estimates. Given these problems of the DEA and the SFA, Fan, Li and Weersink (1996) proposed a semi-parametric stochastic frontier model that estimates the production function (frontier) by non......), Kumbhakar et al. (2007), and Henningsen and Kumbhakar (2009). The aim of this paper and its main contribution to the existing literature is the estimation semi-parametric stochastic frontier models using a different non-parametric estimation technique: spline regression (Ma et al. 2011). We apply...... efficiency of Polish dairy farms contributes to the insight into this dynamic process. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate the results of this spline-based semi-parametric stochastic frontier model with results of other semi-parametric stochastic frontier models and of traditional parametric stochastic...

  18. Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Maity, Arnab

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work

  19. A semi-parametric within-subject mixture approach to the analyses of responses and response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Dylan; Bolsinova, Maria; Vermunt, Jeroen K

    2018-05-01

    In item response theory, modelling the item response times in addition to the item responses may improve the detection of possible between- and within-subject differences in the process that resulted in the responses. For instance, if respondents rely on rapid guessing on some items but not on all, the joint distribution of the responses and response times will be a multivariate within-subject mixture distribution. Suitable parametric methods to detect these within-subject differences have been proposed. In these approaches, a distribution needs to be assumed for the within-class response times. In this paper, it is demonstrated that these parametric within-subject approaches may produce false positives and biased parameter estimates if the assumption concerning the response time distribution is violated. A semi-parametric approach is proposed which resorts to categorized response times. This approach is shown to hardly produce false positives and parameter bias. In addition, the semi-parametric approach results in approximately the same power as the parametric approach. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Second-order analysis of semiparametric recurrent event processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yongtao

    2011-09-01

    A typical recurrent event dataset consists of an often large number of recurrent event processes, each of which contains multiple event times observed from an individual during a follow-up period. Such data have become increasingly available in medical and epidemiological studies. In this article, we introduce novel procedures to conduct second-order analysis for a flexible class of semiparametric recurrent event processes. Such an analysis can provide useful information regarding the dependence structure within each recurrent event process. Specifically, we will use the proposed procedures to test whether the individual recurrent event processes are all Poisson processes and to suggest sensible alternative models for them if they are not. We apply these procedures to a well-known recurrent event dataset on chronic granulomatous disease and an epidemiological dataset on meningococcal disease cases in Merseyside, United Kingdom to illustrate their practical value. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Semi-Parametric Maximum Likelihood Method for Interaction in Case-Mother Control-Mother Designs: Package SPmlficmcm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moliere Nguile-Makao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of interaction effects involving genetic variants and environmental exposures on the risk of adverse obstetric and early-life outcomes is generally performed using standard logistic regression in the case-mother and control-mother design. However such an analysis is inefficient because it does not take into account the natural family-based constraints present in the parent-child relationship. Recently, a new approach based on semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimation was proposed. The advantage of this approach is that it takes into account the parental relationship between the mother and her child in estimation. But a package implementing this method has not been widely available. In this paper, we present SPmlficmcm, an R package implementing this new method and we propose an extension of the method to handle missing offspring genotype data by maximum likelihood estimation. Our choice to treat missing data of the offspring genotype was motivated by the fact that in genetic association studies where the genetic data of mother and child are available, there are usually more missing data on the genotype of the offspring than that of the mother. The package builds a non-linear system from the data and solves and computes the estimates from the gradient and the Hessian matrix of the log profile semi-parametric likelihood function. Finally, we analyze a simulated dataset to show the usefulness of the package.

  2. Study on risk insight for additional ILRT interval extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, M. R.; Hong, S. Y.; Kim, M. K.; Chung, B. S.; Oh, H. C.

    2005-01-01

    In U.S., the containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test (ILRT) interval was extended from 3 times per 10 years to once per 10 years based on NUREG-1493 'Performance-Based Containment Leak-Test Program' in 1995. In September, 2001, ILRT interval was extended up to once per 15 years based on Nuclear Energy Industry (NEI) provisional guidance 'Interim Guidance for Performing Risk Impact Assessments In Support of One-Time Extensions for Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test Surveillance Intervals'. In Korea, the containment ILRT was performed with 5 year interval. But, in MOST(Ministry of Science and Technology) Notice 2004-15 'Standard for the Leak- Rate Test of the Nuclear Reactor Containment', the extension of the ILRT interval to once per 10 year can be allowed if some conditions are met. So, the safety analysis for the extension of Yonggwang Nuclear (YGN) Unit 1 and 2 ILRT interval extension to once per 10 years was completed based on the methodology in NUREG-1493. But, during review process by regulatory body, KINS, it was required that some various risk insight or index for risk analysis should be developed. So, we began to study NEI interim report for 15 year ILRT interval extension. As previous analysis based on NUREG-1493, MACCS II (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) computer code was used for the risk analysis of the population, and the population dose was selected as a reference index for the risk evaluation

  3. Influence of Additives on Cigarette Related Health Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klus H

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tobacco additives play an important role in the manufacturing and for the quality of tobacco products, particularly cigarettes and roll-your-own tobaccos. Attention is increasingly given to the potential effects of additives on consumer behavior and health. This review is intended to compile, collate and - to some degree - evaluate the wealth of pertinent scientific information available from the published literature and other special sources. At first, the reasons are set forth for the use of additives in cigarette manufacturing. In response to the growing controversy over the attractiveness and addictiveness of smoking, the clarification of terms and concepts is followed by a detailed discussion of two kinds of substances with particular relevance: Additives like ammonium compounds that are claimed to increase nicotine availability, and additives that are claimed to increase nicotine addictiveness.

  4. Bayesian Semiparametric Density Deconvolution in the Presence of Conditionally Heteroscedastic Measurement Errors

    KAUST Repository

    Sarkar, Abhra

    2014-10-02

    We consider the problem of estimating the density of a random variable when precise measurements on the variable are not available, but replicated proxies contaminated with measurement error are available for sufficiently many subjects. Under the assumption of additive measurement errors this reduces to a problem of deconvolution of densities. Deconvolution methods often make restrictive and unrealistic assumptions about the density of interest and the distribution of measurement errors, e.g., normality and homoscedasticity and thus independence from the variable of interest. This article relaxes these assumptions and introduces novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology based on Dirichlet process mixture models for robust deconvolution of densities in the presence of conditionally heteroscedastic measurement errors. In particular, the models can adapt to asymmetry, heavy tails and multimodality. In simulation experiments, we show that our methods vastly outperform a recent Bayesian approach based on estimating the densities via mixtures of splines. We apply our methods to data from nutritional epidemiology. Even in the special case when the measurement errors are homoscedastic, our methodology is novel and dominates other methods that have been proposed previously. Additional simulation results, instructions on getting access to the data set and R programs implementing our methods are included as part of online supplemental materials.

  5. Bayesian Semiparametric Density Deconvolution in the Presence of Conditionally Heteroscedastic Measurement Errors

    KAUST Repository

    Sarkar, Abhra; Mallick, Bani K.; Staudenmayer, John; Pati, Debdeep; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the density of a random variable when precise measurements on the variable are not available, but replicated proxies contaminated with measurement error are available for sufficiently many subjects. Under the assumption of additive measurement errors this reduces to a problem of deconvolution of densities. Deconvolution methods often make restrictive and unrealistic assumptions about the density of interest and the distribution of measurement errors, e.g., normality and homoscedasticity and thus independence from the variable of interest. This article relaxes these assumptions and introduces novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology based on Dirichlet process mixture models for robust deconvolution of densities in the presence of conditionally heteroscedastic measurement errors. In particular, the models can adapt to asymmetry, heavy tails and multimodality. In simulation experiments, we show that our methods vastly outperform a recent Bayesian approach based on estimating the densities via mixtures of splines. We apply our methods to data from nutritional epidemiology. Even in the special case when the measurement errors are homoscedastic, our methodology is novel and dominates other methods that have been proposed previously. Additional simulation results, instructions on getting access to the data set and R programs implementing our methods are included as part of online supplemental materials.

  6. Phosphate additives in food--a health risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritz, Eberhard; Hahn, Kai; Ketteler, Markus; Kuhlmann, Martin K; Mann, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Hyperphosphatemia has been identified in the past decade as a strong predictor of mortality in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). For example, a study of patients in stage CKD 5 (with an annual mortality of about 20%) revealed that 12% of all deaths in this group were attributable to an elevated serum phosphate concentration. Recently, a high-normal serum phosphate concentration has also been found to be an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality in the general population. Therefore, phosphate additives in food are a matter of concern, and their potential impact on health may well have been underappreciated. We reviewed pertinent literature retrieved by a selective search of the PubMed and EU databases (www.zusatzstoffe-online.de, www.codexalimentarius.de), with the search terms "phosphate additives" and "hyperphosphatemia." There is no need to lower the content of natural phosphate, i.e. organic esters, in food, because this type of phosphate is incompletely absorbed; restricting its intake might even lead to protein malnutrition. On the other hand, inorganic phosphate in food additives is effectively absorbed and can measurably elevate the serum phosphate concentration in patients with advanced CKD. Foods with added phosphate tend to be eaten by persons at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale, who consume more processed and "fast" food. The main pathophysiological effect of phosphate is vascular damage, e.g. endothelial dysfunction and vascular calcification. Aside from the quality of phosphate in the diet (which also requires attention), the quantity of phosphate consumed by patients with advanced renal failure should not exceed 1000 mg per day, according to the guidelines. Prospective controlled trials are currently unavailable. In view of the high prevalence of CKD and the potential harm caused by phosphate additives to food, the public should be informed that added phosphate is damaging to health. Furthermore, calls for labeling

  7. Generalized Functional Linear Models With Semiparametric Single-Index Interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Yehua

    2010-06-01

    We introduce a new class of functional generalized linear models, where the response is a scalar and some of the covariates are functional. We assume that the response depends on multiple covariates, a finite number of latent features in the functional predictor, and interaction between the two. To achieve parsimony, the interaction between the multiple covariates and the functional predictor is modeled semiparametrically with a single-index structure. We propose a two step estimation procedure based on local estimating equations, and investigate two situations: (a) when the basis functions are pre-determined, e.g., Fourier or wavelet basis functions and the functional features of interest are known; and (b) when the basis functions are data driven, such as with functional principal components. Asymptotic properties are developed. Notably, we show that when the functional features are data driven, the parameter estimates have an increased asymptotic variance, due to the estimation error of the basis functions. Our methods are illustrated with a simulation study and applied to an empirical data set, where a previously unknown interaction is detected. Technical proofs of our theoretical results are provided in the online supplemental materials.

  8. Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

    KAUST Repository

    Hartman, Brian M.

    2012-06-01

    Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97-114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States.We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980-2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2012.

  9. Testing Homogeneity in a Semiparametric Two-Sample Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yukun Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a two-sample homogeneity testing problem, in which one sample comes from a population with density f(x and the other is from a mixture population with mixture density (1−λf(x+λg(x. This problem arises naturally from many statistical applications such as test for partial differential gene expression in microarray study or genetic studies for gene mutation. Under the semiparametric assumption g(x=f(xeα+βx, a penalized empirical likelihood ratio test could be constructed, but its implementation is hindered by the fact that there is neither feasible algorithm for computing the test statistic nor available research results on its theoretical properties. To circumvent these difficulties, we propose an EM test based on the penalized empirical likelihood. We prove that the EM test has a simple chi-square limiting distribution, and we also demonstrate its competitive testing performances by simulations. A real-data example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.

  10. Generalized Functional Linear Models With Semiparametric Single-Index Interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Yehua; Wang, Naisyin; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a new class of functional generalized linear models, where the response is a scalar and some of the covariates are functional. We assume that the response depends on multiple covariates, a finite number of latent features in the functional predictor, and interaction between the two. To achieve parsimony, the interaction between the multiple covariates and the functional predictor is modeled semiparametrically with a single-index structure. We propose a two step estimation procedure based on local estimating equations, and investigate two situations: (a) when the basis functions are pre-determined, e.g., Fourier or wavelet basis functions and the functional features of interest are known; and (b) when the basis functions are data driven, such as with functional principal components. Asymptotic properties are developed. Notably, we show that when the functional features are data driven, the parameter estimates have an increased asymptotic variance, due to the estimation error of the basis functions. Our methods are illustrated with a simulation study and applied to an empirical data set, where a previously unknown interaction is detected. Technical proofs of our theoretical results are provided in the online supplemental materials.

  11. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  12. Study on Semi-Parametric Statistical Model of Safety Monitoring of Cracks in Concrete Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongshi Gu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cracks are one of the hidden dangers in concrete dams. The study on safety monitoring models of concrete dam cracks has always been difficult. Using the parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of cracks in concrete dams, with the help of the semi-parametric statistical theory, and considering the abnormal behaviors of these cracks, the semi-parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of concrete dam cracks is established to overcome the limitation of the parametric model in expressing the objective model. Previous projects show that the semi-parametric statistical model has a stronger fitting effect and has a better explanation for cracks in concrete dams than the parametric statistical model. However, when used for forecast, the forecast capability of the semi-parametric statistical model is equivalent to that of the parametric statistical model. The modeling of the semi-parametric statistical model is simple, has a reasonable principle, and has a strong practicality, with a good application prospect in the actual project.

  13. Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei

    2011-07-01

    We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work was originally motivated by a unique testing problem in genetic epidemiology (Chatterjee, et al., 2006) that involved a typical generalized linear model but with an additional term reminiscent of the Tukey one-degree-of-freedom formulation, and their interest was in testing for main effects of the genetic variables, while gaining statistical power by allowing for a possible interaction between genes and the environment. Later work (Maity, et al., 2009) involved the possibility of modeling the environmental variable nonparametrically, but they focused on whether there was a parametric main effect for the genetic variables. In this paper, we consider the complementary problem, where the interest is in testing for the main effect of the nonparametrically modeled environmental variable. We derive a generalized likelihood ratio test for this hypothesis, show how to implement it, and provide evidence that our method can improve statistical power when compared to standard partially linear models with main effects only. We use the method for the primary purpose of analyzing data from a case-control study of colorectal adenoma.

  14. A semiparametric separation curve approach for comparing correlated ROC data from multiple markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Liansheng Larry; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2012-01-01

    In this article we propose a separation curve method to identify the range of false positive rates for which two ROC curves differ or one ROC curve is superior to the other. Our method is based on a general multivariate ROC curve model, including interaction terms between discrete covariates and false positive rates. It is applicable with most existing ROC curve models. Furthermore, we introduce a semiparametric least squares ROC estimator and apply the estimator to the separation curve method. We derive a sandwich estimator for the covariance matrix of the semiparametric estimator. We illustrate the application of our separation curve method through two real life examples. PMID:23074360

  15. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

  16. Semi-parametric modelling of investments in heating installations: The case of the Dutch glasshouse industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Pietola, K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper applies a semi-parametric approach to estimating a generalised model of investments in heating installations. The results suggest that marginal costs of investments in heating installations increase quickly at small investment levels, whereas the increase slows down at higher investment

  17. Reliable Single Chip Genotyping with Semi-Parametric Log-Concave Mixtures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.C.A. Rippe (Ralph); J.J. Meulman (Jacqueline); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe common approach to SNP genotyping is to use (model-based) clustering per individual SNP, on a set of arrays. Genotyping all SNPs on a single array is much more attractive, in terms of flexibility, stability and applicability, when developing new chips. A new semi-parametric method,

  18. Semiparametric Gaussian copula models : Geometry and efficient rank-based estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, J.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose, for multivariate Gaussian copula models with unknown margins and structured correlation matrices, a rank-based, semiparametrically efficient estimator for the Euclidean copula parameter. This estimator is defined as a one-step update of a rank-based pilot estimator in the direction of

  19. Semiparametric inference on the fractal index of Gaussian and conditionally Gaussian time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    Using theory on (conditionally) Gaussian processes with stationary increments developed in Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2009, 2011), this paper presents a general semiparametric approach to conducting inference on the fractal index, α, of a time series. Our setup encompasses a large class of Gaussian...

  20. Confidence Intervals for a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pek, Jolynn; Losardo, Diane; Bauer, Daniel J.

    2011-01-01

    Compared to parametric models, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to modeling nonlinearity between latent variables have the advantage of recovering global relationships of unknown functional form. Bauer (2005) proposed an indirect application of finite mixtures of structural equation models where latent components are estimated in the…

  1. Visualizing Confidence Bands for Semiparametrically Estimated Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pek, Jolynn; Chalmers, R. Philip; Kok, Bethany E.; Losardo, Diane

    2015-01-01

    Structural equation mixture models (SEMMs), when applied as a semiparametric model (SPM), can adequately recover potentially nonlinear latent relationships without their specification. This SPM is useful for exploratory analysis when the form of the latent regression is unknown. The purpose of this article is to help users familiar with structural…

  2. Gender Wage Gap : A Semi-Parametric Approach With Sample Selection Correction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Picchio, M.; Mussida, C.

    2010-01-01

    Sizeable gender differences in employment rates are observed in many countries. Sample selection into the workforce might therefore be a relevant issue when estimating gender wage gaps. This paper proposes a new semi-parametric estimator of densities in the presence of covariates which incorporates

  3. TWO METHODS OF ESTIMATING SEMIPARAMETRIC COMPONENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNET'S CURVE (EKC)

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Krishna P.; Zapata, Hector O.

    2004-01-01

    This study compares parametric and semiparametric smoothing techniques to estimate the environmental Kuznet curve. The ad hoc functional form where income is related either as a square or a cubic function to environmental quality is relaxed in search of a better nonlinear fit to the pollution-income relationship for panel data.

  4. Semiparametric regression analysis of failure time data with dependent interval censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chyong-Mei; Shen, Pao-Sheng

    2017-09-20

    Interval-censored failure-time data arise when subjects are examined or observed periodically such that the failure time of interest is not examined exactly but only known to be bracketed between two adjacent observation times. The commonly used approaches assume that the examination times and the failure time are independent or conditionally independent given covariates. In many practical applications, patients who are already in poor health or have a weak immune system before treatment usually tend to visit physicians more often after treatment than those with better health or immune system. In this situation, the visiting rate is positively correlated with the risk of failure due to the health status, which results in dependent interval-censored data. While some measurable factors affecting health status such as age, gender, and physical symptom can be included in the covariates, some health-related latent variables cannot be observed or measured. To deal with dependent interval censoring involving unobserved latent variable, we characterize the visiting/examination process as recurrent event process and propose a joint frailty model to account for the association of the failure time and visiting process. A shared gamma frailty is incorporated into the Cox model and proportional intensity model for the failure time and visiting process, respectively, in a multiplicative way. We propose a semiparametric maximum likelihood approach for estimating model parameters and show the asymptotic properties, including consistency and weak convergence. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and a data set of bladder cancer is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Asselt, van E.D.; García-Gimeno, R.M.; Zurera, G.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2007-01-01

    The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and

  6. Empirical Bayes Estimation of Semi-parametric Hierarchical Mixture Models for Unbiased Characterization of Polygenic Disease Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo Nishino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS suggest that the genetic architecture of complex diseases consists of unexpectedly numerous variants with small effect sizes. However, the polygenic architectures of many diseases have not been well characterized due to lack of simple and fast methods for unbiased estimation of the underlying proportion of disease-associated variants and their effect-size distribution. Applying empirical Bayes estimation of semi-parametric hierarchical mixture models to GWAS summary statistics, we confirmed that schizophrenia was extremely polygenic [~40% of independent genome-wide SNPs are risk variants, most within odds ratio (OR = 1.03], whereas rheumatoid arthritis was less polygenic (~4 to 8% risk variants, significant portion reaching OR = 1.05 to 1.1. For rheumatoid arthritis, stratified estimations revealed that expression quantitative loci in blood explained large genetic variance, and low- and high-frequency derived alleles were prone to be risk and protective, respectively, suggesting a predominance of deleterious-risk and advantageous-protective mutations. Despite genetic correlation, effect-size distributions for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder differed across allele frequency. These analyses distinguished disease polygenic architectures and provided clues for etiological differences in complex diseases.

  7. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  8. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  9. A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

  10. Fine mapping in the MHC region accounts for 18% additional genetic risk for celiac disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pulit, Sara L.; Trynka, Gosia; Hunt, Karen A.; Romanos, Jihane; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; van Heel, David A.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Balcker, Paul I. W.

    Although dietary gluten is the trigger for celiac disease, risk is strongly influenced by genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. We fine mapped the MHC association signal to identify additional risk factors independent of the HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles and

  11. "The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Semiparametric mixed-effects analysis of PK/PD models using differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Eskridge, Kent M; Zhang, Shunpu

    2008-08-01

    Motivated by the use of semiparametric nonlinear mixed-effects modeling on longitudinal data, we develop a new semiparametric modeling approach to address potential structural model misspecification for population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analysis. Specifically, we use a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with form dx/dt = A(t)x + B(t) where B(t) is a nonparametric function that is estimated using penalized splines. The inclusion of a nonparametric function in the ODEs makes identification of structural model misspecification feasible by quantifying the model uncertainty and provides flexibility for accommodating possible structural model deficiencies. The resulting model will be implemented in a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling setup for population analysis. We illustrate the method with an application to cefamandole data and evaluate its performance through simulations.

  13. Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ø.; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The es...... the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.......In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods....... The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all...

  14. Operational Cybersecurity Risks and Their Effect on Adoption of Additive Manufacturing in the Naval Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    CYBERSECURITY RISKS AND THEIR EFFECT ON ADOPTION OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING IN THE NAVAL DOMAIN by Michael D. Grimshaw December 2017 Thesis...OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING IN THE NAVAL DOMAIN 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael D. Grimshaw 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Additive manufacturing (AM) has been proven to provide multiple benefits over traditional

  15. Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life

    CERN Document Server

    Nikulin, M; Mesbah, M; Limnios, N

    2004-01-01

    Parametric and semiparametric models are tools with a wide range of applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. This self-contained volume examines these tools in survey articles written by experts currently working on the development and evaluation of models and methods. While a number of chapters deal with general theory, several explore more specific connections and recent results in "real-world" reliability theory, survival analysis, and related fields.

  16. Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

  17. Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

    2018-02-01

    In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Public risk perception of food additives and food scares. The case in Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Linhai; Zhong, Yingqi; Shan, Lijie; Qin, Wei

    2013-11-01

    This study examined the factors affecting public risk perception of food additive safety and possible resulting food scares using a survey conducted in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. The model was proposed based on literature relating to the role of risk perception and information perception of public purchase intention under food scares. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used for data analysis. The results showed that attitude towards behavior, subjective norm and information perception exerted moderate to high effect on food scares, and the effects were also mediated by risk perceptions of additive safety. Significant covariance was observed between attitudes toward behavior, subjective norm and information perception. Establishing an effective mechanism of food safety risk communication, releasing information of government supervision on food safety in a timely manner, curbing misleading media reports on public food safety risk, and enhancing public knowledge of the food additives are key to the development and implementation of food safety risk management policies by the Chinese government. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A study on the development of risk perception concerning food additives

    OpenAIRE

    臼井, 宗一

    2014-01-01

    In order to study the development process of risk perception concerning food additives, a sur vey was conducted with female college students (sophomores) for sources of information that made them feel insecure about food additives. The main source of the information when they were in infancy and at elementar y school was found to be family (mostly mother); that was teachers when they were at middle school and high school, and that was ...

  20. Additional components of risk assessment and their impact on the probability parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Saja

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article raises the issue of risk assessment and its impact on the quality and safety of work. During the assessment of the turning lathe position additional components associated with the jobs personalization were taken into account. Paragraph 2 item 7 of the Regulation of the Minister of Laborr and Social Policy of 26 September 1997 on general safety regulations defines occupational risk as the likelihood of an adverse event. The authors drew attention to the reality of the accident, which sometimes depends on the predisposition of the employee. It turns out that a correct estimation of the probability of occurrence of the accident to be able to react in a timely way seems extremely important.. This parameter will be assessed more accurately if we take into account a number of additional components resulting from the characteristics of the employee. The results of the personalized assessment of risk may allow appropriate planning of corrective and preventive actions.

  1. Increased risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of bullying experiencing additional threats to physical safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Tammy B; Adesman, Andrew

    2017-11-23

    Objective To examine, in a nationally-representative sample of high school students, to what extent one or more additional threats to physical safety exacerbates the risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of school and/or cyber-bullying. Methods National data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) were analyzed for grades 9-12 (n = 15,624). Victimization groups were characterized by school-bullying and cyber-bullying, with and without additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school, and skipping school out of fear for one's safety. Outcomes included 2-week sadness and suicidality. Outcomes for victimization groups were compared to non-victims using logistic regression adjusting for sex, grade and race/ethnicity. Results Overall, 20.2% of students were school-bullied, and 15.5% were cyber-bullied in the past year. Compared to non-victims, victims of school-bullying and victims of cyber-bullying (VoCBs) who did not experience additional threats to physical safety were 2.76 and 3.83 times more likely to report 2-week sadness, and 3.39 and 3.27 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conversely, victims of bullying who experienced one or more additional threats to physical safety were successively more likely to report these adverse outcomes. Notably, victims of school-bullying and VoCBs with all three additional risk factors were 13.13 and 17.75 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conclusion Risk of depression symptoms and suicidality among victims of school-bullying and/or cyber-bullying is greatly increased among those who have experienced additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school and skipping school out of fear for their safety.

  2. Risk factors for an additional port in single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with cholecystitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, Kenichiro; Shirabe, Ken; Watanabe, Akira; Kubo, Norio; Sasaki, Shigeru; Suzuki, Hideki; Asao, Takayuki; Kuwano, Hiroyuki

    2017-01-01

    Although single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy is now widely performed in patients with cholecystitis, some cases require an additional port to complete the procedure. In this study, we focused on risk factor of additional port in this surgery. We performed single-incision cholecystectomy in 75 patients with acute cholecystitis or after cholecystitis between 2010 and 2014 at Gunma University Hospital. Surgical indications followed the TG13 guidelines. Our standard procedure for single-incision cholecystectomy routinely uses two needlescopic devices. We used logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors associated with use of an additional full-size port (5 or 10 mm). Surgical outcome was acceptable without biliary injury. Nine patients (12.0%) required an additional port, and one patient (1.3%) required conversion to open cholecystectomy because of severe adhesions around the cystic duct and common bile duct. In multivariate analysis, high C-reactive protein (CRP) values (>7.0 mg/dl) during cholecystitis attacks were significantly correlated with the need for an additional port (P = 0.009), with a sensitivity of 55.6%, specificity of 98.5%, and accuracy of 93.3%. This study indicated that the severe inflammation indicated by high CRP values during cholecystitis attacks predicts the need for an additional port. J. Med. Invest. 64: 245-249, August, 2017.

  3. Lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - additive or multiplicative effect?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the work is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer when combined radon and smoking exposure. Methodologically the evaluation is based on case and control study nested in two cohort studies, including 11,000 miners and 12,000 residents exposed to high concentrations of radon in homes. Radon exposure in individuals is complemented by information on smoking gained personally from them or from their relatives. The study is based on 1,073 cases of lung cancer among miners and 372 cases in population study. Control subjects were randomly selected in each study based on gender, year of birth and age achieved. The combined effect of smoking and radon is evaluated using the so-called geometric mixed models, whose special case is an additive or multiplicative model. The resulting model of the risk is closer to additive interaction (parameter of mixed model 0.2). The consequences of the model in the study of population are illustrated by estimates of lifetime risk in a hypothetical population of smokers and nonsmokers. Compared to the multiplicative risk model, the lifetime risk significantly increased according to the best geometric mixed model, especially in the population of non-smokers. (author)

  4. An Analysis Of Tensile Test Results to Assess the Innovation Risk for an Additive Manufacturing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczak Stanisław

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the innovation risk for an additive manufacturing process. The analysis was based on the results of static tensile tests obtained for specimens made of photocured resin. The assessment involved analyzing the measurement uncertainty by applying the FMEA method. The structure of the causes and effects of the discrepancies was illustrated using the Ishikawa diagram. The risk priority numbers were calculated. The uncertainty of the tensile test measurement was determined for three printing orientations. The results suggest that the material used to fabricate the tensile specimens shows clear anisotropy of the properties in relation to the printing direction.

  5. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  6. Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of accelerated failure time models with cluster structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhaonan; Xu, Xinyi; Shen, Junshan

    2017-11-10

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for survival data with cluster structures. Our model allows distributional heterogeneity across clusters and accommodates their relationships through a density ratio approach. Moreover, a nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet processes prior is placed on the baseline distribution to yield full distributional flexibility. We illustrate through simulations that our model can greatly improve estimation accuracy by effectively pooling information from multiple clusters, while taking into account the heterogeneity in their random error distributions. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method using analysis of Mayo Clinic Trial in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Modelling asset correlations during the recent financial crisis: A semiparametric approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel

    This article proposes alternatives to the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model to study assets' correlations during the recent financial crisis. In particular, we adopt a semiparametric and nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional correlations for two interesting portfolios....... The first portfolio consists of equity sectors SPDRs and the S&P 500 composite, while the second one contains major currencies that are actively traded in the foreign exchange market. Methodologically, our contribution is two fold. First, we propose the Local Linear (LL) estimator for the correlations...

  8. Metals Additive Manufacturing. Great Promise in Mitigating Shortages but Some Risks Remain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    risks for obsolescence man- agement. As we leverage the growth of this new technol- 39 Defense AT&L: November-December 2016 ogy, it will be...such as re- placing a few obsolescent parts or castings and building prototypes. In addition, AM is used to create special tooling in lieu of...improvements in cost and schedule . Similar successes were obtained by the America Makes- funded project led by the Youngstown Business Incubator (YBI) that

  9. A case control study of possible additional risk factors for chronic alcoholic pancreatitis

    OpenAIRE

    Sri Vengadesh Gopal; Ashley Solomon; Jaahnavi Konidala

    2016-01-01

    Background: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is characterised by irreversible damage to pancreas leading to endocrine and exocrine insufficiency with considerable morbidity. Etiopathogenesis is multifactorial with interplay between genetics and environmental toxins. Alcoholism is more commonly associated with chronic pancreatitis. But it is not very clear why only certain proportion of the alcoholics develop pancreatitis. So this study was conducted to find the possible additional risk factors inv...

  10. [The real-world effectiveness of personal protective equipment and additional risks for workers' health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denisov, É I; Morozova, T V; Adeninskaia, E E; Kur'erov, N N

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) of hearing, respiratory organs and hands is considered. It is shown that real effect of PPE is twice lower than declared by supplier; this presumes some derating system. The aspects of discomfort and additional risks are analyzed. The hygienic and physiologic evaluation of PPE is required along with elaboration of an official document (OSH standard or sanitary regulation) on selection, personal fit, organization of use and individual training of workers and their motivation.

  11. Additional Treatments for High-Risk Obstetric Antiphospholipid Syndrome: a Comprehensive Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffatti, Amelia; Hoxha, Ariela; Favaro, Maria; Tonello, Marta; Colpo, Anna; Cucchini, Umberto; Banzato, Alessandra; Pengo, Vittorio

    2017-08-01

    Most investigators currently advocate prophylactic-dose heparin plus low-dose aspirin as the preferred treatment of otherwise healthy women with obstetric antiphospholipid syndrome, whilst women with a history of vascular thrombosis alone or associated with pregnancy morbidity are usually treated with therapeutic heparin doses in association with low-dose aspirin in an attempt to prevent both thrombosis and pregnancy morbidity. However, the protocols outlined above fail in about 20 % of pregnant women with antiphospholipid syndrome. Identifying risk factors associated with pregnancy failure when conventional therapies are utilized is an important step in establishing guidelines to manage these high-risk patients. Some clinical and laboratory risk factors have been found to be related to maternal-foetal complications in pregnant women on conventional therapy. However, the most efficacious treatments to administer to high-risk antiphospholipid syndrome women in addition to conventional therapy in order to avoid pregnancy complications are as yet unestablished. This is a comprehensive review on this topic and an invitation to participate in a multicentre study in order to identify the best additional treatments to be used in this subset of antiphospholipid syndrome patients.

  12. Semiparametric nonlinear quantile regression model for financial returns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avdulaj, Krenar; Baruník, Jozef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 81-97 ISSN 1081-1826 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : copula quantile regression * realized volatility * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.649, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/avdulaj-0472346.pdf

  13. Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractAccurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financial applications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaR evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by

  14. Semiparametric Item Response Functions in the Context of Guessing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Carl F.; Cai, Li

    2016-01-01

    We present a logistic function of a monotonic polynomial with a lower asymptote, allowing additional flexibility beyond the three-parameter logistic model. We develop a maximum marginal likelihood-based approach to estimate the item parameters. The new item response model is demonstrated on math assessment data from a state, and a computationally…

  15. Adiponectin provides additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis in both genders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ha Yoon

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the relation between adiponectin and atherosclerosis in both genders, and investigated whether adiponectin provides useful additional information for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis. METHODS: We measured serum adiponectin levels and other cardiovascular risk factors in 1033 subjects (454 men, 579 women from the Korean Genomic Rural Cohort study. Carotid intima-media-thickness (CIMT was used as measure of atherosclerosis. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated using multiple logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC, the category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were calculated. RESULTS: After adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, such as age, waist circumference, smoking history, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure and insulin resistance, the ORs (95%CI of the third tertile adiponectin group were 0.42 (0.25-0.72 in men and 0.47 (0.29-0.75 in women. The area under the curve (AUC on the ROC analysis increased significantly by 0.025 in men and 0.022 in women when adiponectin was added to the logistic model of conventional cardiovascular risk factors (AUC in men: 0.655 to 0.680, p = 0.038; AUC in women: 0.654 to 0.676, p = 0.041. The NRI was 0.32 (95%CI: 0.13-0.50, p<0.001, and the IDI was 0.03 (95%CI: 0.01-0.04, p<0.001 for men. For women, the category-free NRI was 0.18 (95%CI: 0.02-0.34, p = 0.031 and the IDI was 0.003 (95%CI: -0.002-0.008, p = 0.189. CONCLUSION: Adiponectin and atherosclerosis were significantly related in both genders, and these relationships were independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, adiponectin provided additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors regarding the risk of atherosclerosis.

  16. Reliable single chip genotyping with semi-parametric log-concave mixtures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph C A Rippe

    Full Text Available The common approach to SNP genotyping is to use (model-based clustering per individual SNP, on a set of arrays. Genotyping all SNPs on a single array is much more attractive, in terms of flexibility, stability and applicability, when developing new chips. A new semi-parametric method, named SCALA, is proposed. It is based on a mixture model using semi-parametric log-concave densities. Instead of using the raw data, the mixture is fitted on a two-dimensional histogram, thereby making computation time almost independent of the number of SNPs. Furthermore, the algorithm is effective in low-MAF situations.Comparisons between SCALA and CRLMM on HapMap genotypes show very reliable calling of single arrays. Some heterozygous genotypes from HapMap are called homozygous by SCALA and to lesser extent by CRLMM too. Furthermore, HapMap's NoCalls (NN could be genotyped by SCALA, mostly with high probability. The software is available as R scripts from the website www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~rrippe.

  17. Education and risk of coronary heart disease: Assessment of mediation by behavioural risk factors using the additive hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordahl, H; Rod, NH; Frederiksen, BL

    2013-01-01

    seven Danish cohort studies were linked to registry data on education and incidence of CHD. Mediation by smoking, low physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) on the association between education and CHD were estimated by applying newly proposed methods for mediation based on the additive hazards...... % CI: 12, 22) for women and 37 (95 % CI: 28, 46) for men could be ascribed to the pathway through smoking. Further, 39 (95 % CI: 30, 49) cases for women and 94 (95 % CI: 79, 110) cases for men could be ascribed to the pathway through BMI. The effects of low physical activity were negligible. Using...... contemporary methods, the additive hazards model, for mediation we indicated the absolute numbers of CHD cases prevented when modifying smoking and BMI. This study confirms previous claims based on the Cox proportional hazards model that behavioral risk factors partially mediates the effect of education on CHD...

  18. Semiparametric regression for restricted mean residual life under right censoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansourvar, Zahra; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    is not observed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose the proportional restricted mean residual life model for fitting survival data under right censoring. For inference on the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the asymptotic properties...... of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a class of goodness-of-fit test is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and the approach is applied to a set of real life data collected from...

  19. Health-risk assessment based on an additive to paints made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Tic Wilhelm

    2017-01-01

    The results of selected toxicological tests relating to the human health risk effect of the hydroxyester HE-1 – environmentally-friendly additive to paints and varnishes are presented. The test results indicate that HE-1 causes skin irritation in rabbit only when used at its maximum concentrations. No lesions in the cornea or iris were observed in any of the test rabbits after the application of the hydroxyester HE-1. In the mutagenic effect test of HE-1 on the bacteria Salmonella typhimurium, the result was negative. Based on the test results, it was found that the hydroxyester HE-1 may only have a human health risk effect when used at its maximum concentrations.

  20. A review of the additive health risk of cannabis and tobacco co-use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Ellen; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

    2016-09-01

    Cannabis and tobacco are the most widely used substances, and are often used together. The present review examines the toxicant exposure associated with co-use (e.g., carbon monoxide, carcinogens), co-use via electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and problematic methodological issues present across co-use studies. An extensive literature search through PubMed was conducted and studies utilizing human subjects and in vitro methods were included. Keywords included tobacco, cigarette, e-cigarette, ENDS, smoking, or nicotine AND marijuana OR cannabis OR THC. Co-use may pose additive risk for toxicant exposure as certain co-users (e.g., blunt users) tend to have higher breath carbon monoxide levels and cannabis smoke can have higher levels of some carcinogens than tobacco smoke. Cannabis use via ENDS is low and occurs primarily among established tobacco or cannabis users, but its incidence may be increasing and expanding to tobacco/cannabis naïve individuals. There are several methodological issues across co-use research including varying definitions of co-use, sample sizes, lack of control for important covariates (e.g., time since last cigarette), and inconsistent measurement of outcome variables. There are some known additive risks for toxicant exposure as a result of co-use. Research utilizing consistent methodologies is needed to further establish the additive risk of co-use. Future research should also be aware of novel technologies (e.g., ENDS) as they likely alter some toxicant exposure when used alone and with cannabis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The Additive Risk Model for Estimation of Effect of Haplotype Match in BMT Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, T; Zhang, MJ

    2011-01-01

    leads to a missing data problem. We show how Aalen's additive risk model can be applied in this setting with the benefit that the time-varying haplomatch effect can be easily studied. This problem has not been considered before, and the standard approach where one would use the expected-maximization (EM......) algorithm cannot be applied for this model because the likelihood is hard to evaluate without additional assumptions. We suggest an approach based on multivariate estimating equations that are solved using a recursive structure. This approach leads to an estimator where the large sample properties can...... be developed using product-integration theory. Small sample properties are investigated using simulations in a setting that mimics the motivating haplomatch problem....

  2. A low socio-economic status is an additional risk factor for glucose intolerance in high risk Hong Kong Chinese

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Gary T.C.; Chan, Juliana C.N.; Yeung, Vincent T.F.; Chow, Chun-Chung; Tsang, Lynn W.W.; Cockram, Clive S.

    2001-01-01

    To examine whether a low socio-economic status (SES) is an additional risk factor for glucose intolerance in Hong Kong Chinese with known risk factors for glucose intolerance, a total of 2847 Chinese subjects (473 men and 2374 women) were recruited from the community for assessment. They had known risk factors for glucose intolerance including a previous history of gestational diabetes, positive family history of diabetes in first degree relatives and equivocal fasting plasma glucose concentrations between 7 and 8 mmol/l or random plasma glucose concentrations between 8 and 11 mmol/l. The 2847 subjects were classified according to their education levels and occupations: education group 1 = high school or university, group 2 = middle school, group 3 = illiterate or up to elementary school; occupational group 1 = professional or managerial, group 2 = non-manual, group 3 = manual, group 4 = unskilled, group 5 = housewife or unemployed. Different socio-economic groups were well represented in this selected population. The distribution of educational groups in this study was similar to that recorded in the 1991 Hong Kong Census. When analysed according to education levels and after adjustment for age, women in the lowest social class had the highest prevalence of diabetes, body mass index, blood pressure and plasma glucose concentrations. Men with the lowest education level had the highest prevalence of diabetes after age adjustment. The age-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) of having diabetes was 2.3 (1.3, 4.3) in female subjects and 2.5 (1.2, 5.4) in male subjects with the lowest SES compared to subjects with the highest SES. When categorised according to occupation and after adjustment for age, women in the lowest social class had the highest prevalence of diabetes and glycaemic indexes. The age-adjusted odds ratio of having diabetes was 4.5 (1.9, 10.9) in female subjects with the lowest SES compared to those with the highest SES. The corresponding age

  3. Weekend hospitalization and additional risk of death: an analysis of inpatient data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freemantle, N; Richardson, M; Wood, J; Ray, D; Khosla, S; Shahian, D; Roche, W R; Stephens, I; Keogh, B; Pagano, D

    2012-02-01

    To assess whether weekend admissions to hospital and/or already being an inpatient on weekend days were associated with any additional mortality risk. Retrospective observational survivorship study. We analysed all admissions to the English National Health Service (NHS) during the financial year 2009/10, following up all patients for 30 days after admission and accounting for risk of death associated with diagnosis, co-morbidities, admission history, age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, seasonality, day of admission and hospital trust, including day of death as a time dependent covariate. The principal analysis was based on time to in-hospital death. National Health Service Hospitals in England. 30 day mortality (in or out of hospital). There were 14,217,640 admissions included in the principal analysis, with 187,337 in-hospital deaths reported within 30 days of admission. Admission on weekend days was associated with a considerable increase in risk of subsequent death compared with admission on weekdays, hazard ratio for Sunday versus Wednesday 1.16 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.18; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 1.11 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.13; P < .0001). Hospital stays on weekend days were associated with a lower risk of death than midweek days, hazard ratio for being in hospital on Sunday versus Wednesday 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.94; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.96; P < .0001). Similar findings were observed on a smaller US data set. Admission at the weekend is associated with increased risk of subsequent death within 30 days of admission. The likelihood of death actually occurring is less on a weekend day than on a mid-week day.

  4. Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pingsheng; Feldman, Amy S; Rosas-Salazar, Christian; James, Kristina; Escobar, Gabriel; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Li, Sherian Xu; Carroll, Kecia N; Walsh, Eileen; Mitchel, Edward; Das, Suman; Kumar, Rajesh; Yu, Chang; Dupont, William D; Hartert, Tina V

    2016-01-01

    Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma. We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma) cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI) during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS), mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated. Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI) and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course) were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling) was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

  5. Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingsheng Wu

    Full Text Available Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma.We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS, mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated.Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

  6. Health-risk assessment based on an additive to paints made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jan Tic, Wilhelm

    2017-10-01

    Solvents are primarily used for making protective coatings. Considering their chemical nature, there are a great variety of coatings, including those based on liquid hydrocarbons and organic chloroderivatives. These products are a serious load to the environment because of their physicochemical properties, therefore, they have for some time been replaced with more-environmentally friendly, new generation products. One of them is the hydroxyester HE-1: made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products, it is an alternative to those coalescents for paints and varnishes which are intended to be replaced or their use restricted. The results of selected toxicological tests relating to the human health risk effect of the hydroxyester HE-1 - environmentally-friendly additive to paints and varnishes are presented. The test results indicate that HE-1 causes skin irritation in rabbit only when used at its maximum concentrations. No lesions in the cornea or iris were observed in any of the test rabbits after the application of the hydroxyester HE-1. In the mutagenic effect test of HE-1 on the bacteria Salmonella typhimurium, the result was negative. Based on the test results, it was found that the hydroxyester HE-1 may only have a human health risk effect when used at its maximum concentrations.

  7. Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2013-09-01

    We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  8. truncSP: An R Package for Estimation of Semi-Parametric Truncated Linear Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Karlsson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Problems with truncated data occur in many areas, complicating estimation and inference. Regarding linear regression models, the ordinary least squares estimator is inconsistent and biased for these types of data and is therefore unsuitable for use. Alternative estimators, designed for the estimation of truncated regression models, have been developed. This paper presents the R package truncSP. The package contains functions for the estimation of semi-parametric truncated linear regression models using three different estimators: the symmetrically trimmed least squares, quadratic mode, and left truncated estimators, all of which have been shown to have good asymptotic and ?nite sample properties. The package also provides functions for the analysis of the estimated models. Data from the environmental sciences are used to illustrate the functions in the package.

  9. Use and groundwater risk potential of additives in heat transfer fluids for borehole heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilieva, Dafina

    2014-01-01

    Ground based heat exchanger systems need to be evaluated in terms of potential effects on groundwater quality due to the risk of leakage of borehole heat exchanger fluids. The aim of this work was to identify the compounds which are present in additive mixtures and to investigate experimentally their biodegradability and effects on the biodegradation of the major organic component in borehole heat exchanger fluids. A data survey was carried out in cooperation with the State Ministry of the Environment Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany to collect detailed information about the identity and application amounts of additives in borehole heat exchanger fluids. The survey revealed that numerous additives of various chemical classes and properties are used as corrosion inhibitors, alkalis, dyes, organic solvents, flavors, defoamers and surfactants. Furthermore, it was shown that glycols are among the most often applied antifreeze agents, the main component of the heat exchanger fluids. Based on the prioritization criteria (i) abundance in the borehole heat exchanger fluids, (ii) persistence, and (iii) mobility in the subsurface, the additives benzotriazole, tolyltriazole, 2-ethylhexanoate, benzoate and decane dicarboxylate were selected for further biodegradation experiments. The biodegradation experiments were carried out in batch systems with 60- or 70-m-deep sediments (sandstone or marl) as inoculum. The samples were taken during the installation of borehole heat exchanger systems at two different sites. The microcosms were conducted under oxic, denitrifying, iron- and sulfate-reducing as well as fermentative conditions at the presumed aquifer temperature of 12 C. The major component ethylene glycol was degraded under all conditions studied. The fastest biodegradation occurred under oxic and nitrate-reducing conditions (< 15 days). In all anoxic, nitrate free experiments with marl-sediment fermentation was the predominant process involved in the biodegradation of ethylene

  10. BRAF mutation in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma – additional marker of risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriy Yuriyevich Semyonov

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPapillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC is heterogeneous group of tumor less than 1 cm in the diameter. The volume of surgical treatment stay unstable because unclear biological potential of PTMC.AimThe aim of our study was to assess the utility of BRAF gene mutation as preoperative additional marker of risk stratification.Materials and methodsWe include 44 patient who were operated in general surgery department Pavlov State Medical University from 2001 to 2013. In all 44 cases BRAF gene mutation was detected and compared with clinic-morphological features (multifocality, invasive growth, lymph node metastasis, recurrence retrospectivelyResultsIn our study the frequency of BRAF gene mutation was 68.2%. On multivariate regression analysis the presence of bilateral tumoural foci, lymph node metastasis and the presence of capsular invasion were significantly related to BRAF positive gene status.ConclusionsThus, appropriate volume for the BRAF positive PTMC is thyroidectomy with central compartment lymph node dissection.

  11. PEMODELAN JUMLAH ANAK PUTUS SEKOLAH DI PROVINSI BALI DENGAN PENDEKATAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GUSTI AYU RATIH ASTARI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Dropout number is one of the important indicators to measure the human progress resources in education sector. This research uses the approaches of Semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression to get the best model and to determine the influencing factors of dropout number for primary education in Bali. The analysis results show that there are no significant differences between the Poisson regression model with GWPR and Semi-parametric GWPR. Factors which significantly influence the dropout number for primary education in Bali are the ratio of students to school, ratio of students to teachers, the number of families with the latest educational fathers is elementary or junior high school, illiteracy rates, and the average number of family members.

  12. Cannabis use and childhood trauma interact additively to increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in adolescence.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Harley, M

    2010-10-01

    Adolescent cannabis use has been shown in many studies to increase the risk of later psychosis. Childhood trauma is associated with both substance misuse and risk for psychosis. In this study our aim was to investigate whether there is a significant interaction between cannabis use and childhood trauma in increasing the risk for experiencing psychotic symptoms during adolescence.

  13. Online Semiparametric Identification of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using the Wavelet-Based Partially Linear Battery Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiping Zhang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Battery model identification is very important for reliable battery management as well as for battery system design process. The common problem in identifying battery models is how to determine the most appropriate mathematical model structure and parameterized coefficients based on the measured terminal voltage and current. This paper proposes a novel semiparametric approach using the wavelet-based partially linear battery model (PLBM and a recursive penalized wavelet estimator for online battery model identification. Three main contributions are presented. First, the semiparametric PLBM is proposed to simulate the battery dynamics. Compared with conventional electrical models of a battery, the proposed PLBM is equipped with a semiparametric partially linear structure, which includes a parametric part (involving the linear equivalent circuit parameters and a nonparametric part [involving the open-circuit voltage (OCV]. Thus, even with little prior knowledge about the OCV, the PLBM can be identified using a semiparametric identification framework. Second, we model the nonparametric part of the PLBM using the truncated wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA expansion, which leads to a parsimonious model structure that is highly desirable for model identification; using this model, the PLBM could be represented in a linear-in-parameter manner. Finally, to exploit the sparsity of the wavelet MRA representation and allow for online implementation, a penalized wavelet estimator that uses a modified online cyclic coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to identify the PLBM in a recursive fashion. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed PLBM with the corresponding identification algorithm can accurately simulate the dynamic behavior of a lithium-ion battery in the Federal Urban Driving Schedule tests.

  14. Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

  15. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  16. Towards internationally acceptable standards for food additives and contaminants based on the use of risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huggett, A.; Petersen, B.J.; Walker, R.; Fisher, C.E.; Notermans, S.H.W.; Rombouts, F.M.; Abbott, P.; Debackere, M.; Hathaway, S.C.; Hecker, E.F.F.; Knaap, A.G.A.; Kuznesof, P.M.; Meyland, I.; Moy, G.; Narbonne, J.-F.; Paakkanen, J.; Smith, M.R.; Tennant, D.; Wagstaffe, P.; Wargo, J.; Würtzen, G.

    1998-01-01

    Internationally acceptable norms need to incorporate sound science and consistent risk management principles in an open and transparent manner, as set out in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement). The process of risk analysis provides a procedure

  17. Semiparametric approach for non-monotone missing covariates in a parametric regression model

    KAUST Repository

    Sinha, Samiran

    2014-02-26

    Missing covariate data often arise in biomedical studies, and analysis of such data that ignores subjects with incomplete information may lead to inefficient and possibly biased estimates. A great deal of attention has been paid to handling a single missing covariate or a monotone pattern of missing data when the missingness mechanism is missing at random. In this article, we propose a semiparametric method for handling non-monotone patterns of missing data. The proposed method relies on the assumption that the missingness mechanism of a variable does not depend on the missing variable itself but may depend on the other missing variables. This mechanism is somewhat less general than the completely non-ignorable mechanism but is sometimes more flexible than the missing at random mechanism where the missingness mechansim is allowed to depend only on the completely observed variables. The proposed approach is robust to misspecification of the distribution of the missing covariates, and the proposed mechanism helps to nullify (or reduce) the problems due to non-identifiability that result from the non-ignorable missingness mechanism. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are derived. Finite sample performance is assessed through simulation studies. Finally, for the purpose of illustration we analyze an endometrial cancer dataset and a hip fracture dataset.

  18. A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Data from Multiple Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kiranmoy; Afriyie, Prince; Spirko, Lauren

    2015-11-01

    Often the biological and/or clinical experiments result in longitudinal data from multiple related groups. The analysis of such data is quite challenging due to the fact that groups might have shared information on the mean and/or covariance functions. In this article, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric approach of modeling the mean trajectories for longitudinal response coming from multiple related groups. We consider matrix stick-breaking process priors on the group mean parameters which allows information sharing on the mean trajectories across the groups. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to the more traditional approaches. We analyze data from a one-year follow-up of nutrition education for hypercholesterolemic children with three different treatments where the children are from different age-groups. Our analysis provides more clinically useful information than the previous analysis of the same dataset. The proposed approach will be a very powerful tool for analyzing data from clinical trials and other medical experiments.

  19. bspmma: An R Package for Bayesian Semiparametric Models for Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Burr

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We introduce an R package, bspmma, which implements a Dirichlet-based random effects model specific to meta-analysis. In meta-analysis, when combining effect estimates from several heterogeneous studies, it is common to use a random-effects model. The usual frequentist or Bayesian models specify a normal distribution for the true effects. However, in many situations, the effect distribution is not normal, e.g., it can have thick tails, be skewed, or be multi-modal. A Bayesian nonparametric model based on mixtures of Dirichlet process priors has been proposed in the literature, for the purpose of accommodating the non-normality. We review this model and then describe a competitor, a semiparametric version which has the feature that it allows for a well-defined centrality parameter convenient for determining whether the overall effect is significant. This second Bayesian model is based on a different version of the Dirichlet process prior, and we call it the "conditional Dirichlet model". The package contains functions to carry out analyses based on either the ordinary or the conditional Dirichlet model, functions for calculating certain Bayes factors that provide a check on the appropriateness of the conditional Dirichlet model, and functions that enable an empirical Bayes selection of the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process. We illustrate the use of the package on two examples, and give an interpretation of the results in these two different scenarios.

  20. Characteristic function-based semiparametric inference for skew-symmetric models

    KAUST Repository

    Potgieter, Cornelis J.

    2012-12-26

    Skew-symmetric models offer a very flexible class of distributions for modelling data. These distributions can also be viewed as selection models for the symmetric component of the specified skew-symmetric distribution. The estimation of the location and scale parameters corresponding to the symmetric component is considered here, with the symmetric component known. Emphasis is placed on using the empirical characteristic function to estimate these parameters. This is made possible by an invariance property of the skew-symmetric family of distributions, namely that even transformations of random variables that are skew-symmetric have a distribution only depending on the symmetric density. A distance metric between the real components of the empirical and true characteristic functions is minimized to obtain the estimators. The method is semiparametric, in that the symmetric component is specified, but the skewing function is assumed unknown. Furthermore, the methodology is extended to hypothesis testing. Two tests for a hypothesis of specific parameter values are considered, as well as a test for the hypothesis that the symmetric component has a specific parametric form. A resampling algorithm is described for practical implementation of these tests. The outcomes of various numerical experiments are presented. © 2012 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

  1. Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

  2. Housing price prediction: parametric versus semi-parametric spatial hedonic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, José-María; Mínguez, Román; Fernández-Avilés, Gema

    2018-01-01

    House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The models are represented as a mixed model that allow for the estimation of the smoothing parameters along with the other parameters of the model. To assess the out-of-sample performance of the models, the paper uses a database containing the price and characteristics of 10,512 homes in Madrid, Spain (Q1 2010). The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and flexible nonlinear relationships between some of the individual or areal characteristics of the houses and their prices are the best strategies for house price prediction.

  3. A Robust Semi-Parametric Test for Detecting Trait-Dependent Diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabosky, Daniel L; Huang, Huateng

    2016-03-01

    Rates of species diversification vary widely across the tree of life and there is considerable interest in identifying organismal traits that correlate with rates of speciation and extinction. However, it has been challenging to develop methodological frameworks for testing hypotheses about trait-dependent diversification that are robust to phylogenetic pseudoreplication and to directionally biased rates of character change. We describe a semi-parametric test for trait-dependent diversification that explicitly requires replicated associations between character states and diversification rates to detect effects. To use the method, diversification rates are reconstructed across a phylogenetic tree with no consideration of character states. A test statistic is then computed to measure the association between species-level traits and the corresponding diversification rate estimates at the tips of the tree. The empirical value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution that is generated by structured permutations of evolutionary rates across the phylogeny. The test is applicable to binary discrete characters as well as continuous-valued traits and can accommodate extremely sparse sampling of character states at the tips of the tree. We apply the test to several empirical data sets and demonstrate that the method has acceptable Type I error rates. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Modelling biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays: a hybrid semi-parametric approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliveira Rui

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a method for modelling dynamical biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays. Since the fundamental mechanisms leading to such delays are many times unknown, non conventional modelling approaches become necessary. Herein, a hybrid semi-parametric identification methodology is proposed in which discrete time series are incorporated into fundamental material balance models. This integration results in hybrid delay differential equations which can be applied to identify unknown cellular dynamics. Results The proposed hybrid modelling methodology was evaluated using two case studies. The first of these deals with dynamic modelling of transcriptional factor A in mammalian cells. The protein transport from the cytosol to the nucleus introduced a delay that was accounted for by discrete time series formulation. The second case study focused on a simple network with distributed time delays that demonstrated that the discrete time delay formalism has broad applicability to both discrete and distributed delay problems. Conclusions Significantly better prediction qualities of the novel hybrid model were obtained when compared to dynamical structures without time delays, being the more distinctive the more significant the underlying system delay is. The identification of the system delays by studies of different discrete modelling delays was enabled by the proposed structure. Further, it was shown that the hybrid discrete delay methodology is not limited to discrete delay systems. The proposed method is a powerful tool to identify time delays in ill-defined biochemical networks.

  5. Empirical Bayes ranking and selection methods via semiparametric hierarchical mixture models in microarray studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Shigeyuki

    2013-05-20

    The main purpose of microarray studies is screening of differentially expressed genes as candidates for further investigation. Because of limited resources in this stage, prioritizing genes are relevant statistical tasks in microarray studies. For effective gene selections, parametric empirical Bayes methods for ranking and selection of genes with largest effect sizes have been proposed (Noma et al., 2010; Biostatistics 11: 281-289). The hierarchical mixture model incorporates the differential and non-differential components and allows information borrowing across differential genes with separation from nuisance, non-differential genes. In this article, we develop empirical Bayes ranking methods via a semiparametric hierarchical mixture model. A nonparametric prior distribution, rather than parametric prior distributions, for effect sizes is specified and estimated using the "smoothing by roughening" approach of Laird and Louis (1991; Computational statistics and data analysis 12: 27-37). We present applications to childhood and infant leukemia clinical studies with microarrays for exploring genes related to prognosis or disease progression. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Understanding uncertainties in non-linear population trajectories: a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical approach to large-scale surveys of coral cover.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Vercelloni

    Full Text Available Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.

  7. Are hypertensive women at additional risk of ischaemic heart disease from physically demanding work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allesøe, Karen; Søgaard, Karen; Aadahl, Mette

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The combination of hypertension and high physical activity at work may increase blood pressure considerably and increase the risk of atherosclerosis and thereby ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but only a few studies in men, and none among women, have examined this topic. DESIGN......: This was a prospective cohort study. METHODS: In 1993, 12,093 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort Study, aged 45-64 years answered a baseline questionnaire on physical activity at work, history of hypertension, a selection of known risk factors for IHD and occupational factors. Information on incident IHD from...... baseline to 2008 was retrieved by individual linkage to the National Register of Hospital Discharges. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted Cox model, hypertensive nurses with high physical activity at work had nearly three times higher risk of IHD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2...

  8. Accelerometry-based gait analysis, an additional objective approach to screen subjects at risk for falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senden, R; Savelberg, H H C M; Grimm, B; Heyligers, I C; Meijer, K

    2012-06-01

    This study investigated whether the Tinetti scale, as a subjective measure for fall risk, is associated with objectively measured gait characteristics. It is studied whether gait parameters are different for groups that are stratified for fall risk using the Tinetti scale. Moreover, the discriminative power of gait parameters to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale is investigated. Gait of 50 elderly with a Tinneti>24 and 50 elderly with a Tinetti≤24 was analyzed using acceleration-based gait analysis. Validated algorithms were used to derive spatio-temporal gait parameters, harmonic ratio, inter-stride amplitude variability and root mean square (RMS) from the accelerometer data. Clear differences in gait were found between the groups. All gait parameters correlated with the Tinetti scale (r-range: 0.20-0.73). Only walking speed, step length and RMS showed moderate to strong correlations and high discriminative power to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale. It is concluded that subtle gait changes that have previously been related to fall risk are not captured by the subjective assessment. It is therefore worthwhile to include objective gait assessment in fall risk screening. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: what are the risks to human health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagriffoul, A; Boudenne, J L; Absi, R; Ballet, J J; Berjeaud, J M; Chevalier, S; Creppy, E E; Gilli, E; Gadonna, J P; Gadonna-Widehem, P; Morris, C E; Zini, S

    2010-03-01

    For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

  10. Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: What are the risks to human health?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagriffoul, A.; Boudenne, J.L.; Absi, R.; Ballet, J.J.; Berjeaud, J.M.; Chevalier, S.; Creppy, E.E.; Gilli, E.; Gadonna, J.P.; Gadonna-Widehem, P.; Morris, C.E.; Zini, S.

    2010-01-01

    For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

  11. Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: What are the risks to human health?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lagriffoul, A. [Agence Francaise de Securite Sanitaire de l' Environnement et du Travail, 253, avenue du General Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Boudenne, J.L. [Universite de Provence, Laboratoire Chimie Provence, UMR6264, 3 Place Victor Hugo case 29 13331 Marseille CEDEX 3 (France); Absi, R. [Institut Polytechnique Saint-Louis, Ecole de Biologie Industrielle, Laboratoire EBInnov, 32 Boulevard du Port, 95094 Cergy-Pontoise (France); Ballet, J.J. [Laboratoire d' immunologie et immunopathologie, Centre hospitalo-universitaire de Caen, avenue de la cote de nacre 14000 Caen (France); Berjeaud, J.M. [Universite de Poitiers, Laboratoire de Chimie et Microbiologie de l' Eau, UMR6008, 40 avenue du recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers CEDEX (France); Chevalier, S. [Universite de Rouen, Laboratoire de Microbiologie du Froid, Signaux et Micro-Environnement, EA 4312, Normandie Securite Sanitaire, 55 rue St Germain, 27000 Evreux (France); Creppy, E.E. [Universite Bordeaux 2, UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques, Laboratoire de Toxicologie, 146, rue Leo-Saignat, 33076 Bordeaux CEDEX (France); Gilli, E. [Universite Paris 8, Departement de geographie, 2, rue de la Liberte, 93526 Saint Denis CEDEX (France); UMR Espace 6012, 98 bd Edouard Herriot, 06204, Nice, CEDEX 3 (France); Gadonna, J.P. [Institut Polytechnique Saint-Louis, Ecole de Biologie Industrielle, Laboratoire EBInnov, 32 Boulevard du Port, 95094 Cergy-Pontoise (France); Gadonna-Widehem, P. [Institut Polytechnique LaSalle Beauvais, departement STAI, rue P. Waguet BP 30313, 60026 Beauvais CEDEX (France); Morris, C.E. [INRA, Unite de Pathologie Vegetale UR407, F-84140 Montfavet (France); Zini, S., E-mail: sylvie.zini@afsset.fr [Agence Francaise de Securite Sanitaire de l' Environnement et du Travail, 253, avenue du General Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2010-03-01

    For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

  12. Additional prognostic value of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography for coronary risk assessment in primary prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cournot, Maxime; Taraszkiewicz, Dorota; Cambou, Jean-Pierre; Galinier, Michel; Boccalon, Henri; Hanaire-Broutin, Hélène; Chamontin, Bernard; Carrié, Didier; Ferrières, Jean

    2009-11-01

    The choice of noninvasive tests used in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases must be based on medical evidence. The aim of this study was to assess the additional prognostic value, over conventional risk factors, of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography, in predicting a first coronary event. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1996 and 2004 (n = 2,709), with follow-up in 2006 (response rate 96.6%). Participants had no history or symptoms of cardiovascular disease and had a standardized physical examination, a cardiac exercise testing, and carotid and femoral ultrasonography at baseline. Incident cases of definite coronary events were recorded during follow-up. Over the Framingham risk score, femoral bruit, positive exercise test, intima-media thickness >0.63 mm, and a femoral plaque provided significant additional information to the prediction model. The addition of the exercise test to the traditional risk factors, then the intima-media thickness and lastly the presence of femoral plaques, produces incremental increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73-0.78, P = .02) and about a 50% increase in the positive predictive value (15.8%-31.4%), with no effect on the negative predictive value (96.4%-96.9%). Physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography provide incremental information on the risk of coronary event in asymptomatic adults. Exercise testing and femoral ultrasonography also improve the accuracy of the risk stratification.

  13. How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G; Schuit, Ewoud; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Pencina, Michael J; Vickers, Andrew; Vickers, Andew; Moons, Karel G M; Mol, Ben W J; Lindeman, Karen S

    2014-09-28

    An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the addition of a marker with a large odds ratio. Because it is not possible on purely statistical grounds to choose between the odds ratio and AUC, we invoke decision analysis, which incorporates costs and benefits. For example, a timely estimate of the risk of later non-elective operative delivery can help a woman in labor decide if she wants an early elective cesarean section to avoid greater complications from possible later non-elective operative delivery. A basic risk prediction model for later non-elective operative delivery involves only antepartum markers. Because adding intrapartum markers to this risk prediction model increases AUC by 0.02, we questioned whether this small improvement is worthwhile. A key decision-analytic quantity is the risk threshold, here the risk of later non-elective operative delivery at which a patient would be indifferent between an early elective cesarean section and usual care. For a range of risk thresholds, we found that an increase in the net benefit of risk prediction requires collecting intrapartum marker data on 68 to 124 women for every correct prediction of later non-elective operative delivery. Because data collection is non-invasive, this test tradeoff of 68 to 124 is clinically acceptable, indicating the value of adding intrapartum markers to the risk prediction model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Increased risk of schizophrenia from additive interaction between infant motor developmental delay and obstetric complications: evidence from a population-based longitudinal study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clarke, Mary C

    2011-12-01

    Obstetric complications and developmental delay are well-established risk factors for schizophrenia. The authors investigated whether these risk factors interact in an additive manner to further increase risk for schizophrenia.

  15. How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, Stuart G.; Schuit, Ewoud; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Pencina, Michael J.; Vickers, Andrew; Vickers, Andew; Moons, Karel G. M.; Mol, Ben W. J.; Lindeman, Karen S.

    2014-01-01

    An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the

  16. Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk.

  17. Additive genetic variation in schizophrenia risk is shared by populations of African and European descent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Candia, T.r.; Lee, S.H.; Yang, J.; Browning, B.L.; Gejman, P. V.; Levinson, D. F.; Mowry, B. J.; Hewitt, J.K.; Goddard, M.E.; O'Donovan, M.C.; Purcell, S.M.; Posthuma, D.; Visscher, P. M.; Wray, N.R.; Keller, M. C.

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the extent to which the proportion of schizophrenia's additive genetic variation tagged by SNPs is shared by populations of European and African descent, we analyzed the largest combined African descent (AD [n = 2,142]) and European descent (ED [n = 4,990]) schizophrenia case-control

  18. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (Pgout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  19. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  20. The time to ruin in some additive risk models with random premium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    to have a Laplace transform that is a rational function. The main results describe the joint Laplace transform of the time at ruin and the deficit at ruin. The method used consists in finding partial eigenfunctions for the generator of the joint process consisting of the Markov process and the accumulated...... of the present value of the Markov process. The intensity for a claim to occur is another nonnegative function of the value of the Markov process. The claim arrival times are the regeneration times for the Markov process. Two-sided claims are allowed, but the distribution of the positive claims is assumed......The risk processes considered in this paper are generated by an underlying Markov process with a regenerative structure and an independent sequence of independent and identically distributed claims. Between the arrivals of claims the process increases at a rate which is a nonnegative function...

  1. Hyperhomocysteinemia - an additional risk factor of thrombosis in systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. E. Shirokova

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To assess homocystein (HC level in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS and its relation to thrombosis development and blood lipide spectrum disturbances. Material and methods. 32 pts (12 male and 20 female with mean age 36 12 years and mean disease duration 13 11 years were included. 8 pts had SLE without APS, 13 - SLE with APS and 11 - primary APS (PAPS. All pts were divided into 2 groups depending on blood HC level. 26 pts with HC level more than 12 mcg/d! were included In group 1 and 6 pts with HC level less than 12 mcg/dl - in group 2. HC level was measured with high efficacious liquid chromatography (HELC. Lipid-protein blood spectrum was assessed in all pts. Results. Elevated HC level was revealed in 26 from 32 pts: in 16 with SLE (including 12 pts with APS and in 10 with PAPS. HC concentration did not depend on APS presence, but frequence of hyperhomocysteinemia (HHC significantly associated with APS and thrombotic complications. 20 from 26 (76,9% pts with HHC had thrombosis history. Only I from 6 (16,7% pts with normal HC level had thrombosis history (exact Fisher test p=0,02. HC level did not depend on age and sex. Changes of blood lipid-protein indices were revealed in most pts. Lipid spectrum disturbances were confined largely to cholesterol elevation due to increase of atherogenic lipoproteins cholesterol. Only 22% of pts showed decrease of antiatherogenic lipoproteins concentration. Bblood lipid-protein spectrum indices did not depend on HC level. Conclusion. HHC is present in 84,6% of pts with APS (primary and secondary. In pts with APS HHC is more frequent than in pts without APS. HHC is associated with thrombotic complications. HHC and lipid-protein spectrum disturbances are independent risk factors of thrombotic complications in pts with SLE and APS.

  2. Insulin resistance: an additional risk factor in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Tushar P; Rawal, Komal; Bagchi, Ashim K; Akolkar, Gauri; Bernardes, Nathalia; Dias, Danielle da Silva; Gupta, Sarita; Singal, Pawan K

    2016-01-01

    Sedentary life style and high calorie dietary habits are prominent leading cause of metabolic syndrome in modern world. Obesity plays a central role in occurrence of various diseases like hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia, which lead to insulin resistance and metabolic derangements like cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) mediated by oxidative stress. The mortality rate due to CVDs is on the rise in developing countries. Insulin resistance (IR) leads to micro or macro angiopathy, peripheral arterial dysfunction, hampered blood flow, hypertension, as well as the cardiomyocyte and the endothelial cell dysfunctions, thus increasing risk factors for coronary artery blockage, stroke and heart failure suggesting that there is a strong association between IR and CVDs. The plausible linkages between these two pathophysiological conditions are altered levels of insulin signaling proteins such as IR-β, IRS-1, PI3K, Akt, Glut4 and PGC-1α that hamper insulin-mediated glucose uptake as well as other functions of insulin in the cardiomyocytes and the endothelial cells of the heart. Reduced AMPK, PFK-2 and elevated levels of NADP(H)-dependent oxidases produced by activated M1 macrophages of the adipose tissue and elevated levels of circulating angiotensin are also cause of CVD in diabetes mellitus condition. Insulin sensitizers, angiotensin blockers, superoxide scavengers are used as therapeutics in the amelioration of CVD. It evidently becomes important to unravel the mechanisms of the association between IR and CVDs in order to formulate novel efficient drugs to treat patients suffering from insulin resistance-mediated cardiovascular diseases. The possible associations between insulin resistance and cardiovascular diseases are reviewed here.

  3. Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

    2017-03-01

    Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

  4. Probiotics as Additives on Therapy in Allergic Airway Diseases: A Systematic Review of Benefits and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Das

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We conducted a systematic review to find out the role of probiotics in treatment of allergic airway diseases.  Methods. A comprehensive search of the major electronic databases was done till March 2013. Trials comparing the effect of probiotics versus placebo were included. A predefined set of outcome measures were assessed. Continuous data were expressed as standardized mean difference with 95% CI. Dichotomous data were expressed as odds ratio with 95% CI. P value < 0.05 was considered as significant. Results. A total of 12 studies were included. Probiotic intake was associated with a significantly improved quality of life score in patients with allergic rhinitis (SMD −1.9 (95% CI −3.62, −0.19; P = 0.03, though there was a high degree of heterogeneity. No improvement in quality of life score was noted in asthmatics. Probiotic intake also improved the following parameters: longer time free from episodes of asthma and rhinitis and decrease in the number of episodes of rhinitis per year. Adverse events were not significant. Conclusion. As the current evidence was generated from few trials with high degree of heterogeneity, routine use of probiotics as an additive on therapy in subjects with allergic airway diseases cannot be recommended.

  5. Trajectories of Childhood Sexual Abuse and Early Adolescent HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviors: The Role of Other Maltreatment, Witnessed Violence, and Child Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Deborah J.; Runyan, Desmond K.; Lewis, Terri; Litrownik, Alan J.; Black, Maureen M.; Wiley, Tisha; English, Diana E.; Proctor, Laura J.; Jones, Bobby L.; Nagin, Daniel S.

    2013-01-01

    Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with HIV/AIDS risk behavior; however, much of this work is retrospective and focuses on women. The current study used semiparametric mixture modeling with youth (n = 844; 48.8% boys) from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) to examine the link between trajectories of CSA (2 to 12 y.o.) and HIV/AIDS risk behavior at age 14 (i.e., sexual intercourse & alcohol use). Trajectory analyses revealed a link between a history of CSA and the development of risky behavior. In addition, trajectories for physical and emotional abuse, but not neglect or witnessed violence, contributed to risky behavior over and above the role of CSA. Child gender did not moderate the findings. Findings highlight the signficance of CSA histories, as well as the broader context of maltreatment, for better understanding the development of risk behaviors in both girls and boys. PMID:20706919

  6. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment

  7. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

    2017-06-01

    Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that

  8. Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

    2014-02-01

    To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

  9. A semiparametric modeling framework for potential biomarker discovery and the development of metabonomic profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dey Dipak K

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The discovery of biomarkers is an important step towards the development of criteria for early diagnosis of disease status. Recently electrospray ionization (ESI and matrix assisted laser desorption (MALDI time-of-flight (TOF mass spectrometry have been used to identify biomarkers both in proteomics and metabonomics studies. Data sets generated from such studies are generally very large in size and thus require the use of sophisticated statistical techniques to glean useful information. Most recent attempts to process these types of data model each compound's intensity either discretely by positional (mass to charge ratio clustering or through each compounds' own intensity distribution. Traditionally data processing steps such as noise removal, background elimination and m/z alignment, are generally carried out separately resulting in unsatisfactory propagation of signals in the final model. Results In the present study a novel semi-parametric approach has been developed to distinguish urinary metabolic profiles in a group of traumatic patients from those of a control group consisting of normal individuals. Data sets obtained from the replicates of a single subject were used to develop a functional profile through Dirichlet mixture of beta distribution. This functional profile is flexible enough to accommodate variability of the instrument and the inherent variability of each individual, thus simultaneously addressing different sources of systematic error. To address instrument variability, all data sets were analyzed in replicate, an important issue ignored by most studies in the past. Different model comparisons were performed to select the best model for each subject. The m/z values in the window of the irregular pattern are then further recommended for possible biomarker discovery. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge this is the very first attempt to model the physical process behind the time-of flight mass

  10. Posttraumatic stress disorder, alone or additively with early life adversity, is associated with obesity and cardiometabolic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, O M; Ko, B-J; Joung, K E; Zaichenko, L; Usher, N; Tsoukas, M; Thakkar, B; Davis, C R; Crowell, J A; Mantzoros, C S

    2015-05-01

    There is some evidence that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and early life adversity may influence metabolic outcomes such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. However, whether and how these interact is not clear. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional and longitudinal study to determine how PTSD severity influences obesity, insulin sensitivity, and key measures and biomarkers of cardiovascular risk. We then looked at how PTSD and early life adversity may interact to impact these same outcomes. PTSD severity is associated with increasing risk of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, with higher symptoms correlating with higher values of BMI, leptin, fibrinogen, and blood pressure, and lower values of insulin sensitivity. PTSD and early life adversity have an additive effect on these metabolic outcomes. The longitudinal study confirmed findings from the cross sectional study and showed that fat mass, leptin, CRP, sICAM-1, and sTNFRII were significantly increased with higher PTSD severity during a 2.5 year follow-up period. Individuals with early life adversity and PTSD are at high risk and should be monitored carefully for obesity, insulin resistance, and cardiometabolic risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Major histocompatibility complex harbors widespread genotypic variability of non-additive risk of rheumatoid arthritis including epistasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wen-Hua; Bowes, John; Plant, Darren; Viatte, Sebastien; Yarwood, Annie; Massey, Jonathan; Worthington, Jane; Eyre, Stephen

    2016-04-25

    Genotypic variability based genome-wide association studies (vGWASs) can identify potentially interacting loci without prior knowledge of the interacting factors. We report a two-stage approach to make vGWAS applicable to diseases: firstly using a mixed model approach to partition dichotomous phenotypes into additive risk and non-additive environmental residuals on the liability scale and secondly using the Levene's (Brown-Forsythe) test to assess equality of the residual variances across genotype groups per marker. We found widespread significant (P 5e-05) vGWAS signals within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) across all three study cohorts of rheumatoid arthritis. We further identified 10 epistatic interactions between the vGWAS signals independent of the MHC additive effects, each with a weak effect but jointly explained 1.9% of phenotypic variance. PTPN22 was also identified in the discovery cohort but replicated in only one independent cohort. Combining the three cohorts boosted power of vGWAS and additionally identified TYK2 and ANKRD55. Both PTPN22 and TYK2 had evidence of interactions reported elsewhere. We conclude that vGWAS can help discover interacting loci for complex diseases but require large samples to find additional signals.

  12. Meta-analysis identifies 29 additional ulcerative colitis risk loci, increasing the number of confirmed associations to 47

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Carl A; Boucher, Gabrielle; Lees, Charlie W

    2011-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies and candidate gene studies in ulcerative colitis have identified 18 susceptibility loci. We conducted a meta-analysis of six ulcerative colitis genome-wide association study datasets, comprising 6,687 cases and 19,718 controls, and followed up the top association...... signals in 9,628 cases and 12,917 controls. We identified 29 additional risk loci (P associated loci to 47. After annotating associated regions using GRAIL, expression quantitative trait loci data and correlations with non-synonymous SNPs, we...... identified many candidate genes that provide potentially important insights into disease pathogenesis, including IL1R2, IL8RA-IL8RB, IL7R, IL12B, DAP, PRDM1, JAK2, IRF5, GNA12 and LSP1. The total number of confirmed inflammatory bowel disease risk loci is now 99, including a minimum of 28 shared association...

  13. Semiparametric profile likelihood estimation for continuous outcomes with excess zeros in a random-threshold damage-resistance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, John D; Tsodikov, Alex

    2017-05-30

    Continuous outcome data with a proportion of observations equal to zero (often referred to as semicontinuous data) arise frequently in biomedical studies. Typical approaches involve two-part models, with one part a logistic model for the probability of observing a zero and some parametric continuous distribution for modeling the positive part of the data. We propose a semiparametric model based on a biological system with competing damage manifestation and resistance processes. This allows us to derive a closed-form profile likelihood based on the retro-hazard function, leading to a flexible procedure for modeling continuous data with a point mass at zero. A simulation study is presented to examine the properties of the method in finite samples. We apply the method to a data set consisting of pulmonary capillary hemorrhage area in lab rats subjected to diagnostic ultrasound. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Additional risk factors for infection by multidrug-resistant pathogens in healthcare-associated infection: a large cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cardoso Teresa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a lack of consensus regarding the definition of risk factors for healthcare-associated infection (HCAI. The purpose of this study was to identify additional risk factors for HCAI, which are not included in the current definition of HCAI, associated with infection by multidrug-resistant (MDR pathogens, in all hospitalized infected patients from the community. Methods This 1-year prospective cohort study included all patients with infection admitted to a large, tertiary care, university hospital. Risk factors not included in the HCAI definition, and independently associated with MDR pathogen infection, namely MDR Gram-negative (MDR-GN and ESKAPE microorganisms (vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species, carbapenem-hydrolyzing Klebsiella pneumonia and MDR Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterobacter species, were identified by logistic regression among patients admitted from the community (either with community-acquired or HCAI. Results There were 1035 patients with infection, 718 from the community. Of these, 439 (61% had microbiologic documentation; 123 were MDR (28%. Among MDR: 104 (85% had MDR-GN and 41 (33% had an ESKAPE infection. Independent risk factors associated with MDR and MDR-GN infection were: age (adjusted odds ratio (OR = 1.7 and 1.5, p = 0.001 and p = 0.009, respectively, and hospitalization in the previous year (between 4 and 12 months previously (adjusted OR = 2.0 and 1,7, p = 0.008 and p = 0.048, respectively. Infection by pathogens from the ESKAPE group was independently associated with previous antibiotic therapy (adjusted OR = 7.2, p p = 0.003. Patients with infection by MDR, MDR-GN and pathogens from the ESKAPE group had significantly higher rates of inadequate antibiotic therapy than those without (46% vs 7%, 44% vs 10%, 61% vs 15%, respectively, p

  15. Increased bioclogging and corrosion risk by sulfate addition during iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Choon-Ping; Zhao, Dan; Takase, Yuta; Miyanaga, Kazuhiko; Watanabe, Tomoko; Tomoe, Yasuyoshi; Tanji, Yasunori

    2011-02-01

    Iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant in Japan involved the addition of sulfuric acid for pH adjustment, resulting in an additional about 200 mg/L of sulfate in the waste brine after iodine recovery. Bioclogging occurred at the waste brine injection well, causing a decrease in well injectivity. To examine the factors that contribute to bioclogging, an on-site experiment was conducted by amending 10 L of brine with different conditions and then incubating the brine for 5 months under open air. The control case was exposed to open air but did not receive additional chemicals. When sulfate addition was coupled with low iodine, there was a drastic increase in the total amount of accumulated biomass (and subsequently the risk of bioclogging) that was nearly six times higher than the control. The bioclogging-associated corrosion rate of carbon steel was 84.5 μm/year, which is four times higher than that observed under other conditions. Analysis of the microbial communities by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis revealed that the additional sulfate established a sulfur cycle and induced the growth of phototrophic bacteria, including cyanobacteria and purple bacteria. In the presence of sulfate and low iodine levels, cyanobacteria and purple bacteria bloomed, and the accumulation of abundant biomass may have created a more conducive environment for anaerobic sulfate-reducing bacteria. It is believed that the higher corrosion rate was caused by a differential aeration cell that was established by the heterogeneous distribution of the biomass that covered the surface of the test coupons.

  16. Meat and bone meal and mineral feed additives may increase the risk of oral prion disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher J.; McKenzie, Debbie; Pedersen, Joel A.; Aiken, Judd M.

    2011-01-01

    Ingestion of prion-contaminated materials is postulated to be a primary route of prion disease transmission. Binding of prions to soil (micro)particles dramatically enhances peroral disease transmission relative to unbound prions, and it was hypothesized that micrometer-sized particles present in other consumed materials may affect prion disease transmission via the oral route of exposure. Small, insoluble particles are present in many substances, including soil, human foods, pharmaceuticals, and animal feeds. It is known that meat and bone meal (MBM), a feed additive believed responsible for the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), contains particles smaller than 20 μm and that the pathogenic prion protein binds to MBM. The potentiation of disease transmission via the oral route by exposure to MBM or three micrometer-sized mineral feed additives was determined. Data showed that when the disease agent was bound to any of the tested materials, the penetrance of disease was increased compared to unbound prions. Our data suggest that in feed or other prion-contaminated substances consumed by animals or, potentially, humans, the addition of MBM or the presence of microparticles could heighten risks of prion disease acquisition.

  17. Modelling of and empirical studies on portfolio choice, option pricing, and credit risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polbennikov, S.Y.

    2005-01-01

    This thesis develops and applies a statistical spanning test for mean-coherent regular risk portfolios. Similarly in spirt to Huberman and Kandel (1987), this test can be implemented by means of a simple semi-parametric instrumental variable regression, where instruments have a direct link with a

  18. Addition of rituximab to chop does not increase the risk of cardiotoxicity in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilickap, Saadettin; Yavuz, Bunyamin; Aksoy, Sercan; Sahiner, Levent; Dincer, Murat; Harputluoglu, Hakan; Erman, Mustafa; Aytemir, Kudret; Tokgozoglu, Lale; Barista, Ibrahim

    2008-01-01

    The addition of rituximab to doxorubicin-containing standard chemotherapy significantly improves response to therapy and reduces the risk of death in B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) patients. However, the impact of this approach on doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity has not been elucidated. Patients who had been planned to receive CHOP or rituximab plus CHOP (R-CHOP) combination chemotherapy with a diagnosis of NHL were included in the study. In all patients, systolic and diastolic parameters were measured by using conventional and pulsed-wave tissue Doppler echocardiography, which is more sensitive than conventional lead-dependent techniques, both before and in the sixth month of therapy. There were 28 (M/F; 14/14) patients on CHOP and 33 (M/F; 16/17) patients on R-CHOP. Median age in CHOP and R-CHOP was 49 and 50 years (P = 0.44), respectively. Cumulative doxorubicin doses were 280 and 286 mg/m(2) on CHOP and R-CHOP (P = 0.65), respectively. None of the patients developed clinically evident congestive heart failure. Parameters of systolic function such as LVEF and FS did not significantly change in any patients. In both arms, tissue Doppler parameters of diastolic function such as lateral E and septal E velocity of mitral annulus decreased significantly after therapy (P 0.05). Conventional Doppler echocardiography yielded consistent findings. Both CHOP and R-CHOP cause diastolic dysfunction in the early period following their administration. The addition of rituximab to CHOP chemotherapy does not significantly increase the risk of doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity during this period.

  19. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-01-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  20. Randomised controlled feasibility trial of an evidence-informed behavioural intervention for obese adults with additional risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falko F Sniehotta

    Full Text Available Interventions for dietary and physical activity changes in obese adults may be less effective for participants with additional obesity-related risk factors and co-morbidities than for otherwise healthy individuals. This study aimed to test the feasibility and acceptability of the recruitment, allocation, measurement, retention and intervention procedures of a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to improve physical activity and dietary practices amongst obese adults with additional obesity related risk factors.Pilot single centre open-labelled outcome assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial of obese (Body Mass Index (BMI≥30 kg/m2 adults (age≥18 y with obesity related co-morbidities such as type 2 diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance or hypertension. Participants were randomly allocated to a manual-based group intervention or a leaflet control condition in accordance to a 2∶1 allocation ratio. Primary outcome was acceptability and feasibility of trial procedures, secondary outcomes included measures of body composition, physical activity, food intake and psychological process measures.Out of 806 potentially eligible individuals identified through list searches in two primary care general medical practices N = 81 participants (63% female; mean-age = 56.56(11.44; mean-BMI = 36.73(6.06 with 2.35(1.47 co-morbidities were randomised. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD was the only significant predictor of providing consent to take part in the study (higher chances of consent for invitees with lower levels of deprivation. Participant flowcharts, qualitative and quantitative feedback suggested good acceptance and feasibility of intervention procedures but 34.6% of randomised participants were lost to follow-up due to overly high measurement burden and sub-optimal retention procedures. Participants in the intervention group showed positive trends for most psychological, behavioural and body composition outcomes

  1. Treatment of Unicameral Bone Cysts of the Proximal Femur With Internal Fixation Lessens the Risk of Additional Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilke, Benjamin; Houdek, Matthew; Rao, Rameshwar R; Caird, Michelle S; Larson, A Noelle; Milbrandt, Todd

    2017-09-01

    Little data exist to guide the treatment of unicameral bone cysts in the proximal femur. Methods of treatment include corticosteroid injections, curettage and bone grafting, and internal fixation. The authors completed a multi-institutional, retrospective review to evaluate their experience with proximal femoral unicameral bone cysts. They posed the following questions: (1) Does internal fixation reduce the risk of further procedures for the treatment of a unicameral bone cyst? (2) Is radiographic healing faster with internal fixation? Following institutional review board approval, the authors conducted a retrospective review of 36 patients treated for a unicameral bone cyst of the proximal femur at their institutions between 1974 and 2014. Medical records and radiographs were reviewed to identify patient demographics and treatment outcomes. Tumor locations included femoral neck (n=13), intertrochanteric (n=16), and subtrochanteric (n=7). Initial treatment included steroid injection (n=2), curettage and bone grafting (n=9), and internal fixation with curettage and bone grafting (n=25). Mean time was 9 months to radiographic healing and 15 months to return to full activity. The number of patients requiring additional surgeries was increased among those who did not undergo internal fixation. There was no difference in time to radiographic healing. However, time to return to normal activities was reduced if patients had received internal fixation. A significant reduction in additional procedures was observed when patients had been treated with internal fixation. Although this did not influence time to radiographic healing, patients did return to normal activities sooner. Internal fixation should be considered in the treatment of proximal femoral unicameral bone cysts. [Orthopedics. 2017; 40(5):e862-e867.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  2. Polygenic transmission disequilibrium confirms that common and rare variation act additively to create risk for autism spectrum disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weiner, Daniel J; Wigdor, Emilie M; Ripke, Stephan

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk is influenced by common polygenic and de novo variation. We aimed to clarify the influence of polygenic risk for ASD and to identify subgroups of ASD cases, including those with strongly acting de novo variants, in which polygenic risk is relevant. Using a nove...

  3. Polygenic transmission disequilibrium confirms that common and rare variation act additively to create risk for autism spectrum disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiner, Daniel J.; Wigdor, Emilie M.; Ripke, Stephan; Walters, Raymond K.; Kosmicki, Jack A.; Grove, Jakob; Samocha, Kaitlin E.; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Okbay, Aysu; Bybjerg-Grauholm, Jonas; Werge, Thomas; Hougaard, David M.; Taylor, Jacob; Skuse, David; Devlin, Bernie; Anney, Richard; Sanders, Stephan J.; Bishop, Somer; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Børglum, Anders D.; Smith, George Davey; Daly, Mark J.; Robinson, Elise B.; Bækvad-Hansen, Marie; Dumont, Ashley; Hansen, Christine; Hansen, Thomas F.; Howrigan, Daniel; Mattheisen, Manuel; Moran, Jennifer; Mors, Ole; Nordentoft, Merete; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Poterba, Timothy; Poulsen, Jesper; Stevens, Christine; Anttila, Verneri; Holmans, Peter; Huang, Hailiang; Klei, Lambertus; Lee, Phil H.; Medland, Sarah E.; Neale, Benjamin; Weiss, Lauren A.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Yu, Timothy W.; Wittemeyer, Kerstin; Willsey, A. Jeremy; Wijsman, Ellen M.; Wassink, Thomas H.; Waltes, Regina; Walsh, Christopher A.; Wallace, Simon; Vorstman, Jacob A.S.; Vieland, Veronica J.; Vicente, Astrid M.; Van Engeland, Herman; Tsang, Kathryn; Thompson, Ann P.; Szatmari, Peter; Svantesson, Oscar; Steinberg, Stacy; Stefansson, Kari; Stefansson, Hreinn; State, Matthew W.; Soorya, Latha; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Scherer, Stephen W.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Sandin, Sven; Saemundsen, Evald; Rouleau, Guy A.; Rogé, Bernadette; Roeder, Kathryn; Roberts, Wendy; Reichert, Jennifer; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rehnström, Karola; Regan, Regina; Poustka, Fritz; Poultney, Christopher S.; Piven, Joseph; Pinto, Dalila; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Pedersen, Marianne G.; Pedersen, Carsten B.; Paterson, Andrew D.; Parr, Jeremy R.; Pagnamenta, Alistair T.; Oliveira, Guiomar; Nurnberger, John I.; Murtha, Michael T.; Mouga, Susana; Morrow, Eric M.; DeLuca, Daniel Moreno; Monaco, Anthony P.; Minshew, Nancy; Merikangas, Alison; McMahon, William M.; McGrew, Susan G.; Martsenkovsky, Igor; Martin, Donna M.; Mane, Shrikant M.; Magnusson, Pall; Magalhaes, Tiago; Maestrini, Elena; Lowe, Jennifer K.; Lord, Catherine; Levitt, Pat; Martin, Christa Lese; Ledbetter, David H.; Leboyer, Marion; LeCouteur, Ann S.; Ladd-Acosta, Christine; Kolevzon, Alexander; Klauck, Sabine M.; Jacob, Suma; Iliadou, Bozenna; Hultman, Christina M.; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Hendren, Robert; Hansen, Christine S.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Guter, Stephen J.; Grice, Dorothy E.; Green, Jonathan M.; Green, Andrew; Goldberg, Arthur P.; Gillberg, Christopher; Gilbert, John; Gallagher, Louise; Freitag, Christine M.; Fombonne, Eric; Folstein, Susan E.; Fernandez, Bridget; Fallin, M. Daniele; Ercan-Sencicek, A. Gulhan; Ennis, Sean; Duque, Frederico; Duketis, Eftichia; Delorme, Richard; DeRubeis, Silvia; DeJonge, Maretha V.; Dawson, Geraldine; Cuccaro, Michael L.; Correia, Catarina T.; Conroy, Judith; Conceição, Inês C.; Chiocchetti, Andreas G.; Celestino-Soper, Patrícia B.S.; Casey, Jillian; Cantor, Rita M.; Cafe, Cátia; Brennan, Sean; Bourgeron, Thomas; Bolton, Patrick F.; Bölte, Sven; Bolshakova, Nadia; Betancur, Catalina; Bernier, Raphael; Beaudet, Arthur L.; Battaglia, Agatino; Bal, Vanessa H.; Baird, Gillian; Bailey, Anthony J.; Bader, Joel S.; Bacchelli, Elena; Anagnostou, Evdokia; Amaral, David; Almeida, Joana; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Cook, Edwin H.; Coon, Hilary; Geschwind, Daniel H.; Gill, Michael; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hallmayer, Joachim; Palotie, Aarno; Santangelo, Susan; Sutcliffe, James S.; Arking, Dan E.

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk is influenced by common polygenic and de novo variation. We aimed to clarify the influence of polygenic risk for ASD and to identify subgroups of ASD cases, including those with strongly acting de novo variants, in which polygenic risk is relevant. Using a novel

  4. The present global financial and economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems on the employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avčin, Bojana Avguštin; Kučina, Andrea Užmah; Sarotar, Brigita Novak; Radovanović, Mirjana; Plesničar, Blanka Kores

    2011-09-01

    The global financial and economic crisis starting in 2007 led to a deterioration of several socio-economic determinants of mental health. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to examine the impact of the present economic crisis on the depression and anxiety levels of the employed in the private and public sector in Slovenia. Altogether 1592 employees completed an internet based self-reported questionnaire. Data about perceived impact of the economic crisis, several socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and health parameters were collected. Depression symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale and anxiety symptoms by the Spielberger State-Inventory. Regression models were used 1) to explore the associations of the economic crisis with the level of depression and anxiety symptoms while controlling for some sociodemographic and work characteristic variables, and 2) to understand the relationship between some potentially important socioeconomic variables and the perception of the economic crisis. Depressive and anxiety scores were significantly increased among 590 (46.6%) employees being affected by the economic crisis. The level of depressive symptoms was significantly associated with perceived impact by the crisis, recent sick leave, reported injuries sustained at work, benzodiazepine and analgesic use, the lack of emotional support, and trust in crisis telephone lines. The level of anxiety symptoms yielded the robust association with the level of depression symptoms, reported injuries sustained on the way to work and education. The economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems which clinicians should internalize and become more aware of them. Symptoms of depression and anxiety can be masked in high-utilizers of medical care with physical complaints or psychoactive drug use.

  5. Glycemic Excursions in Type 1 Diabetes in Pregnancy: A Semiparametric Statistical Approach to Identify Sensitive Time Points during Gestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Resmi Gupta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To examine the gestational glycemic profile and identify specific times during pregnancy that variability in glucose levels, measured by change in velocity and acceleration/deceleration of blood glucose fluctuations, is associated with delivery of a large-for-gestational-age (LGA baby, in women with type 1 diabetes. Methods. Retrospective analysis of capillary blood glucose levels measured multiple times daily throughout gestation in women with type 1 diabetes was performed using semiparametric mixed models. Results. Velocity and acceleration/deceleration in glucose levels varied across gestation regardless of delivery outcome. Compared to women delivering LGA babies, those delivering babies appropriate for gestational age exhibited significantly smaller rates of change and less variation in glucose levels between 180 days of gestation and birth. Conclusions. Use of innovative statistical methods enabled detection of gestational intervals in which blood glucose fluctuation parameters might influence the likelihood of delivering LGA baby in mothers with type 1 diabetes. Understanding dynamics and being able to visualize gestational changes in blood glucose are a potentially useful tool to assist care providers in determining the optimal timing to initiate continuous glucose monitoring.

  6. Positive autoantibodies to ZnT8 indicate elevated risk for additional autoimmune conditions in patients with Addison's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichna, Marta; Rogowicz-Frontczak, Anita; Żurawek, Magdalena; Fichna, Piotr; Gryczyńska, Maria; Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota; Ruchała, Marek

    2016-07-01

    Autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD) associates with exceptional susceptibility to develop other autoimmune conditions, including type 1 diabetes (T1D), marked by positive serum autoantibodies to insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) and insulinoma-associated protein 2 (IA-2A). Zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) is a new T1D autoantigen, encoded by the SLC30A8 gene. Its polymorphic variant rs13266634C/T seems associated with the occurrence of serum ZnT8 antibodies (ZnT8A). This study was designed to determine the prevalence of serum ZnT8A and their clinical implication in 140 AAD patients. Other beta cell and thyroid-specific autoantibodies were also investigated, and ZnT8A results were confronted with the rs13266634 genotype. ZnT8A were detectable in 8.5 %, GADA in 20.7 %, IA-2A in 5.7 %, IAA in 1.6 % and various anti-thyroid antibodies in 7.1-67.8 % individuals. Type 1 diabetes was found in 10 % AAD patients. ZnT8A were positive in 57.1 % of T1D patients and 3.4 % non-diabetic AAD. Analysis of ZnT8A enabled to identify autoimmunity in two (14.3 %) T1D individuals previously classified as autoantibody-negative. ZnT8A-positive patients revealed significantly higher number of autoimmune conditions (p < 0.001), increased prevalence of T1D (p < 0.001) and other beta cell-specific autoantibodies. Carriers of the rs13266634 T-allele displayed increased frequency (p = 0.006) and higher titres of ZnT8A (p = 0.002). Our study demonstrates high incidence of ZnT8A in AAD patients. ZnT8A are associated with coexisting T1D and predictive of T1D in non-diabetic subjects. Moreover, positive ZnT8A in AAD indicate elevated risk for additional autoimmune conditions. Autoantibodies to beta cell antigens, comprising ZnT8, could be included in routine screening panels in AAD.

  7. The effects of employment on longitudinal trajectories of offending: A follow up in high risk youth from ages 18 to 32.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Geest, V.R.; Bijleveld, C.C.J.H.; Blokland, A.A.J.

    2011-01-01

    This article analyzes the effects of employment on delinquent development from 18 to 32 years of age in 270 high-risk males. Prior to 18 years of age, all men had undergone residential treatment for serious problem behavior in a juvenile justice institution in the Netherlands. We use semiparametric

  8. A first screening and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and additives in personal care products in waste water, sludge, recipient water and sediment from Faroe Islands, Iceland and Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Sandra; Remberger, Mikael; Kaj, Lennart; Schlabach, Martin; Jörundsdóttir, Hrönn Ó; Vester, Jette; Arnórsson, Mímir; Mortensen, Inge; Schwartson, Richard; Dam, Maria

    2016-08-15

    A screening of a broad range of pharmaceuticals and additives in personal care products (PPCPs) in sub-arctic locations of the Faroe Islands (FO), Iceland (IS) and Greenland (GL) was conducted. In total 36 pharmaceuticals including some metabolites, and seven additives in personal care products were investigated in influent and effluent waters as well as sludge of waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) and in water and sediment of recipients. Concentrations and distribution patterns for PPCPs discharged via sewage lines (SLs) to the marine environment were assessed. Of the 36 pharmaceuticals or metabolites analysed 33 were found close to or above the limit of detection (LOD) in all or a part of the samples. All of the seven investigated additives in personal care products were detected above the LOD. Some of the analysed PPCPs occurred in every or almost every sample. Among these were diclofenac, ibuprofen, lidocaine, naproxen, metformin, citalopram, venlafaxine, amiloride, furosemide, metoprolol, sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) and cetrimonium salt (ATAC-C16). Additionally, the study encompasses ecotoxicological risk assessment of 2/3 of the analysed PPCPs in recipient and diluted effluent waters. For candesartan only a small margin to levels with inacceptable risks was observed in diluted effluent waters at two locations (FO). Chronical risks for aquatic organisms staying and/or living around WWTP effluent pipe-outlets were indicated for 17β-estradiol and estriol in the three countries. Additives in PCPs were found to pose the largest risk to the aquatic environment. The surfactants CAPB and ATAC-C16 were found in concentrations resulting in risk factors up to 375 for CAPB and 165 for ATAC-C16 in recipients for diluted effluents from Iggia, Nuuk (GL) and Torshavn (FO) respectively. These results demonstrates a potentially high ecological risk stemming from discharge of surfactants as used in household and industrial detergents as well as additives in personal care

  9. Are blood pressure and diabetes additive or synergistic risk factors? outcome in 8494 subjects randomly recruited from 10 populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Hansen, Tine W; Li, Yan

    2011-01-01

    were not different from those of diabetic patients (P-values for interaction, 0.09¿P¿0.72). In conclusion, in a large international population-based database, both diabetes mellitus and BP contributed equally to the risk of cardiovascular complications without evidence for a synergistic effect...

  10. Additive influence of genetic predisposition and conventional risk factors in the incidence of coronary heart disease: a population-based study in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiannakouris, Nikos; Katsoulis, Michail; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Ordovas, Jose M; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Objectives An additive genetic risk score (GRS) for coronary heart disease (CHD) has previously been associated with incident CHD in the population-based Greek European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. In this study, we explore GRS-‘environment’ joint actions on CHD for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors (ConvRFs), including smoking, hypertension, type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), body mass index (BMI), physical activity and adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Design A case–control study. Setting The general Greek population of the EPIC study. Participants and outcome measures 477 patients with medically confirmed incident CHD and 1271 controls participated in this study. We estimated the ORs for CHD by dividing participants at higher or lower GRS and, alternatively, at higher or lower ConvRF, and calculated the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) as a measure of deviation from additivity. Results The joint presence of higher GRS and higher risk ConvRF was in all instances associated with an increased risk of CHD, compared with the joint presence of lower GRS and lower risk ConvRF. The OR (95% CI) was 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4) for smoking, 2.7 (1.9 to 3.8) for hypertension, 4.1 (2.8 to 6.1) for T2DM, 1.9 (1.4 to 2.5) for lower physical activity, 2.0 (1.3 to 3.2) for high BMI and 1.5 (1.1 to 2.1) for poor adherence to the Mediterranean diet. In all instances, RERI values were fairly small and not statistically significant, suggesting that the GRS and the ConvRFs do not have effects beyond additivity. Conclusions Genetic predisposition to CHD, operationalised through a multilocus GRS, and ConvRFs have essentially additive effects on CHD risk. PMID:24500614

  11. Semi-parametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Žikeš, F.; Baruník, Jozef

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2016), s. 185-226 ISSN 1479-8409 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : conditional quantiles * quantile regression * realized measures * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.800, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434200.pdf

  12. Semi-Parametric Item Response Functions in the Context of Guessing. CRESST Report 844

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Carl F.; Cai, Li

    2015-01-01

    We present a logistic function of a monotonic polynomial with a lower asymptote, allowing additional flexibility beyond the three-parameter logistic model. We develop a maximum marginal likelihood based approach to estimate the item parameters. The new item response model is demonstrated on math assessment data from a state, and a computationally…

  13. Cognitive Processes that Account for Mental Addition Fluency Differences between Children Typically Achieving in Arithmetic and Children At-Risk for Failure in Arithmetic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Derek H.; Hutchinson, Nancy L.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated whether processing speed, short-term memory, and working memory accounted for the differential mental addition fluency between children typically achieving in arithmetic (TA) and children at-risk for failure in arithmetic (AR). Further, we drew attention to fluency differences in simple (e.g., 5 + 3) and complex (e.g., 16 +…

  14. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  15. Body composition analysis and adipocytokine concentrations in haemodialysis patients: abdominal fat gain as an additional cardiovascular risk factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Elena; Díez, Juan J; Pérez Torres, Almudena; Bajo, María Auxiliadora; Del Peso, Gloria; Sánchez-Villanueva, Rafael; Grande, Cristina; Rodríguez, Olaia; Coronado, Mónica; Gómez Candela, Carmen; Díaz-Almirón, Mariana; Iglesias, Pedro; Selgas, Rafael

    Abdominal fat and its increment over time in particular has become a cardiovascular risk factor in uraemic patients. To analyse changes in abdominal fat in haemodialysis patients over one year and study their possible correlation with the variation in adipocytokine serum levels. As a secondary objective, we tried to validate the data obtained by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) with data obtained by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). A prospective one-year study was performed in 18 patients on haemodialysis (HD). In each patient, body composition by BIA and DXA was estimated at baseline and after one year. Several adipocytokine and biochemical parameters were determined. A significant increase in phase angle [4.8° (4.1-5.6) vs. 5.2° (4.4-5.8), Pfat measured by DXA [1.00 (0.80-1.26) vs. 1.02 (0.91-1.30), Pfat mass measured by BIA, as well as the abdominal fat percentage estimated by DXA, was found (Pfat mass over time, especially in the abdomen, evidenced by an increased A/G ratio. These findings might explain the increased cardiovascular risk in these patients. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Latero-cervical lymph node metastases (N1b) represent an additional risk factor for papillary thyroid cancer outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuppo, G; Palermo, F; Russo, M; Tavarelli, M; Masucci, R; Squatrito, S; Vigneri, R; Pellegriti, G

    2017-12-01

    Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), the most common thyroid cancer histotype, has a good prognosis even when spread to the neck lymph node (LN). The prognostic role of LN metastases' location is still controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical relevance of the number and location of LN metastases at presentation in PTCs. This retrospective study included a consecutive series of 1653 PTC patients followed for a mean period of 5.9 years in a referral thyroid cancer clinic. All patients have undergone thyroidectomy with the dissection of at least six LNs. According to the LN status, patients were subdivided into 569 N0 (34.4%), 644 N1a (39.0%, central compartment) and 440 N1b (26.6%, latero-cervical compartment). Age at diagnosis was significantly lower in N1b (39.8, IQR 30.7-51.6) and N1a (40.1, IQR 31.3-50.1) than in N0 (44.7, IQR 36.6-55.0 yrs). The male gender was more prevalent in N1b than in N1a and N0 (F/M = 1.9/1, 4.0/1 and 5.5/1, respectively). Persistent/recurrent disease at last control was significantly more frequent in N1b (29.8%) than in N1a (14.3%), and in N1a than in N0 (4.2%) (p 5) was a significant risk factor for persistent/recurrent disease only for N1a patients. These data indicate that persistent/recurrent disease and distant metastases are significantly more frequent in patients with latero-cervical LN (N1b) metastases and that the LN location should be used for a better postsurgical risk stratification.

  17. Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

  18. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  19. Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lo, Simon M. S.; Stephan, Gesine; Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    The copula graphic estimator (CGE) for competing risks models has received little attention in empirical research, despite having been developed into a comprehensive research method. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theoretical developments and applied research by considering a general...... class of competing risks copula models, which nests popular models such as the Cox proportional hazards model, the semiparametric multivariate mixed proportional hazards model (MMPHM), and the CGE as special cases. Analyzing the effects of a German Hartz reform on unemployment duration, we illustrate...

  20. Older age at diagnosis of Hirschsprung disease decreases risk of postoperative enterocolitis, but resection of additional ganglionated bowel does not.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haricharan, Ramanath N; Seo, Jeong-Meen; Kelly, David R; Mroczek-Musulman, Elizabeth C; Aprahamian, Charles J; Morgan, Traci L; Georgeson, Keith E; Harmon, Carroll M; Saito, Jacqueline M; Barnhart, Douglas C

    2008-06-01

    This study was conducted to determine the effect of age at diagnosis and length of ganglionated bowel resected on postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC). Children who underwent endorectal pull-through (ERPT) between January 1993 and December 2004 were retrospectively reviewed. t Test, analysis of variance, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox's proportional hazards analyses were performed. Fifty-two children with Hirschsprung disease (median age, 25 days; range, 2 days-16 years) were included. Nineteen (37%) had admissions for HAEC. Proportional hazards regression showed that HAEC admissions decreased by 30% with each doubling of age at diagnosis (P = .03) and increased 9-fold when postoperative stricture was present (P 5 cm]). No significant difference in the number of HAEC admissions during initial 2 years post-ERPT was seen between groups A (n = 18) and B (n = 18). The study had a power of 0.8 to detect a difference of 1 admission over 2 years. Children diagnosed with Hirschsprung disease at younger ages are at a greater risk for postoperative enterocolitis. Excising a longer margin of ganglionated bowel (>5 cm) does not seem to be beneficial in decreasing HAEC admissions.

  1. An approach towards risk assessment for the use of a synergistic metallic diesel particulate filter (DPF) regeneration additive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, S. L.; Richards, P. J.

    The motivations for legislation to set diesel emissions limits requiring the use of diesel particulate filters (DPF) are summarised. If the DPF is to be used, demonstration of regeneration (combustion of collected carbonaceous material) without additional emission problems is important. Potential metal emissions resulting from use of a synergistic Fe/Sr fuel-borne DPF regeneration catalyst are evaluated. Measurements over legislated drive cycle estimate the metals to comprise 1-2% of the solid material emitted, and the DPF to collect >99% of such material. Diesel particulate matter is used as a marker, and from existing air quality and emission inventory measurements, maximum conceivable increases of diet. In the context of reductions of other metals, particulate matter and pollutant emissions, the overall assessment is that the use of these metals to enable use of a DPF allows significant net environmental benefit to be obtained.

  2. The additive effects of depressive symptoms and polysubstance use on HIV risk among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Card, Kiffer G; Lachowsky, Nathan J; Armstrong, Heather L; Cui, Zishan; Wang, Lu; Sereda, Paul; Jollimore, Jody; Patterson, Thomas L; Corneil, Trevor; Hogg, Robert S; Roth, Eric A; Moore, David M

    2018-07-01

    Among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM), collinearity between polysubstance use and mental health concerns has obscured their combined effects on HIV risk with multivariable results often highlighting only one or the other. We used mediation and moderation analyses to examine the effects of polysubstance use and depressive symptoms on high-risk sex (i.e., condomless anal sex with serodiscordant/unknown status partner) in a sample of sexually-active GBM, aged ≥16 years, recruited in Metro Vancouver using respondent driven sampling. Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores assessed mental health. Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test scores assessed alcohol disorders. Poly-use of multiple drug types (e.g., stimulants, sedatives, opiates, hallucinogens) was assessed over the previous six months. Among 719 predominantly white (68.0%), gay-identified (80.7%) GBM, alcohol use was not associated with increased prevalence of high-risk sex. Controlling for demographic factors and partner number, an interaction between polysubstance use and depressive symptoms revealed that the combined effects were additively associated with increased odds for high-risk sex. Mediation models showed that polysubstance use partially mediated the relationship between depressive symptoms and high-risk sex. An interaction effect between polysubstance use (defined by using 3 or more substances in the past six months) and depressive symptoms (defined by HADS scores) revealed that the combination of these factors was associated with increased risk for high-risk sex - supporting a syndemic understanding of the production of HIV risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Decreased serum paraoxonase 1 (PON1) activity: an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic heart disease in patients with PCOS?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dursun, Polat; Demirtaş, Ezgi; Bayrak, Ahmet; Yarali, Hakan

    2006-01-01

    Patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) may have an increased risk for the development of hypertension and atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD), the pathophysiological mechanisms of which are not clear. Paraoxonase1 (PON1) is a high-density lipoprotein-associated enzyme that prevents oxidative modification of low-density lipoprotein. The aim of this study was to measure the serum levels of PON1 activity in patients with PCOS and to compare with those of regularly cycling controls. Serum lipid parameters, malondialdehyde (MDA) levels and PON1 activity, were measured in PCOS patients (n = 23) and regularly cycling, age-, body mass index- and smoking status-matched controls (n = 23). All patients had normal glucose tolerance test as assessed by a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. None of the patients had clinically evident hypertension or AHD. Apart from the mean serum PON1 activity, all parameters in the lipid profile including serum MDA levels were comparable between the two groups. There were no significant differences in respect to fasting glucose (4.64 +/- 0.5 versus 4.43 +/- 0.83 mmol/l) and fasting glucose insulin ratio (11.06 +/- 8.26 versus 11.49 +/- 4.90) among the two groups (P > 0.05). However, HOMA insulin resistance index was significantly higher in patients with PCOS compared with the controls (2.06 +/- 0.86 versus 1.51 +/- 0.49; P = 0.01). Also, mean serum PON1 activity was significantly lower in the PCOS group compared with the controls (151.2 +/- 90.8 versus 217.7 +/- 101.6, respectively; P = 0.027). Reduced serum PON1 activity might contribute to the increased susceptibility for the development of AHD in women with PCOS.

  4. STAT4 is a genetic risk factor for systemic sclerosis having additive effects with IRF5 on disease susceptibility and related pulmonary fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieudé, P; Guedj, M; Wipff, J; Ruiz, B; Hachulla, E; Diot, E; Granel, B; Sibilia, J; Tiev, K; Mouthon, L; Cracowski, J L; Carpentier, P H; Amoura, Z; Fajardy, I; Avouac, J; Meyer, O; Kahan, A; Boileau, C; Allanore, Y

    2009-08-01

    Systemic sclerosis (SSc) belongs to the group of connective tissue disorders (CTDs), among which are several disorders characterized by a type I interferon (IFN) signature. The recent identification of an association between IRF5 and SSc further highlights a key role for IFN. STAT4, which encodes STAT-4, contributes to IFN signaling, and its genetic variants were found to be associated with CTDs. The aim of this study was to determine whether the STAT4 rs7574865 single-nucleotide polymorphism is associated with SSc, and whether it interacts with IRF5. Both the STAT4 rs7574865 and IRF5 rs2004640 polymorphisms were genotyped in 1,855 individuals of French Caucasian origin comprising a discovery set of 440 patients with SSc and 485 control subjects and a replication set of 445 patients with SSc and an additional 485 control subjects. STAT4 rs7574865 was shown to be associated with SSc (P=0.001, odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.51). This association was not restricted to a particular phenotype. An additive effect of the STAT4 rs7574865 T allele and the IRF5 rs2004640 T allele was observed, resulting in a multiple increased 1.28-fold risk of SSc. The OR for SSc was 2.72 (95% CI 1.86-3.99) for combinations of genotypes with >or=3 risk alleles. An additive effect was also detected for fibrosing alveolitis: carriage of at least 3 risk alleles appeared to be an independent risk factor (P=2.2x10(-4), OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.28-3.04). Our results establish STAT4 rs7574865 as a new SSc genetic susceptibility factor. STAT4 and IRF5 act with additive effects in terms of susceptibility to both SSc and SSc-related fibrosing alveolitis.

  5. Prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes B and C colorectal cancer: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamantis, N; Xynos, I D; Amptulah, S; Karadima, M; Skopelitis, H; Tsavaris, N

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes stage B and C colorectal cancer (CRC). 291 consecutive non-selected CRC patients were studied retrospectively. Twenty-three variables were examined using a regression statistical model to identify relevant prognostic factors related to disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). On multivariate analysis DFS was found to be negatively affected in patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years vs. non-smokers (p<0.016). Additionally, performance status (PS)<90 (p<0.001), Dukes stage C (p<0.001) and elevated tumor markers (p<0.001) at the time of diagnosis were found to adversely affect DFS. Smoking also had a significant association with relapse. Patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years had 2.45 (p<0.018) higher risk of recurrence compared to patients with no smoking history. OS was influenced by Karnofsky performance status (PS), Dukes stage, and elevated tumor markers. In particular patients with PS< 90 had a 4.69-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than patients with better PS. Stage C disease was associated with 2.27-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than stage B disease, and patients with elevated tumor markers at the time of diagnosis had 2.74-fold higher risk of death (p<0.014) when compared to those whose tumor markers were normal at presentation. Our study associates smoking and relapse incidence in non-clinical- trial CRC patients and reiterates the prognostic significance of PS, stage and tumor markers at the time of diagnosis.

  6. Polymorphisms associated with the risk of lung cancer in a healthy Mexican Mestizo population: application of the additive model for cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebeca Pérez-Morales

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Mexico and worldwide. In the past decade, there has been an increase in the number of lung cancer cases in young people, which suggests an important role for genetic background in the etiology of this disease. In this study, we genetically characterized 16 polymorphisms in 12 low penetrance genes (AhR, CYP1A1, CYP2E1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, GSTPI, XRCC1, ERCC2, MGMT, CCND1 and TP53 in 382 healthy Mexican Mestizos as the first step in elucidating the genetic structure of this population and identifying high risk individuals. All of the genotypes analyzed were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, but different degrees of linkage were observed for polymorphisms in the CYP1A1 and EPHX1 genes. The genetic variability of this population was distributed in six clusters that were defined based on their genetic characteristics. The use of a polygenic model to assess the additive effect of low penetrance risk alleles identified combinations of risk genotypes that could be useful in predicting a predisposition to lung cancer. Estimation of the level of genetic susceptibility showed that the individual calculated risk value (iCRV ranged from 1 to 16, with a higher iCRV indicating a greater genetic susceptibility to lung cancer.

  7. Improving nutrient management practices in agriculture: The role of risk-based beliefs in understanding farmers' attitudes toward taking additional action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S.; Howard, Gregory; Burnett, Elizabeth A.

    2014-08-01

    A recent increase in the amount of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) entering the western Lake Erie basin is likely due to increased spring storm events in combination with issues related to fertilizer application and timing. These factors in combination with warmer lake temperatures have amplified the spread of toxic algal blooms. We assessed the attitudes of farmers in northwest Ohio toward taking at least one additional action to reduce nutrient loss on their farm. Specifically, we (1) identified to what extent farm and farmer characteristics (e.g., age, gross farm sales) as well as risk-based beliefs (e.g., efficacy, risk perception) influenced attitudes, and (2) assessed how these characteristics and beliefs differ in their predictive ability based on unobservable latent classes of farmers. Risk perception, or a belief that negative impacts to profit and water quality from nutrient loss were likely, was the most consistent predictor of farmer attitudes. Response efficacy, or a belief that taking action on one's farm made a difference, was found to significantly influence attitudes, although this belief was particularly salient for the minority class of farmers who were older and more motivated by profit. Communication efforts should focus on the negative impacts of nutrient loss to both the farm (i.e., profit) and the natural environment (i.e., water quality) to raise individual perceived risk among the majority, while the minority need higher perceived efficacy or more specific information about the economic effectiveness of particular recommended practices.

  8. Characterizing chronic and acute health risks of residues of veterinary drugs in food: latest methodological developments by the joint FAO/WHO expert committee on food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boobis, Alan; Cerniglia, Carl; Chicoine, Alan; Fattori, Vittorio; Lipp, Markus; Reuss, Rainer; Verger, Philippe; Tritscher, Angelika

    2017-11-01

    The risk assessment of residues of veterinary drugs in food is a field that continues to evolve. The toxicological end-points to be considered are becoming more nuanced and in light of growing concern about the development of antimicrobial resistance, detailed analysis of the antimicrobial activity of the residues of veterinary drugs in food is increasingly incorporated in the assessment. In recent years, the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) has refined its approaches to provide a more comprehensive and fit-for-purpose risk assessment. This publication describes in detail the consideration of acute and chronic effects, the estimation of acute and chronic dietary exposure, current approaches for including microbiological endpoints in the risk assessment, and JECFA's considerations for the potential effects of food processing on residues from veterinary drugs. JECFA now applies these approaches in the development of health-based guidance values (i.e. safe exposure levels) for residues of veterinary drugs. JECFA, thus, comprehensively addresses acute and chronic risks by using corresponding estimates for acute and chronic exposure and suitable correction for the limited bioavailability of bound residues by the Gallo-Torres model. On a case-by-case basis, JECFA also considers degradation products that occur from normal food processing of food containing veterinary drug residues. These approaches will continue to be refined to ensure the most scientifically sound basis for the establishment of health-based guidance values for veterinary drug residues.

  9. Genetic predisposition to coronary heart disease and stroke using an additive genetic risk score: A population-based study in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiannakouris, N.; Katsoulis, M.; Dilis, V.; Parnell, L.D.; Trichopoulos, D.; Ordovas, J.M.; Trichopoulou, A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether this GRS also predicts incident stroke. Methods Genotypes at nine CHD-relevant SNPs were determined in 494 cases of incident CHD, 320 cases of incident stroke and 1345 unaffected controls drawn from the population-based Greek component of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. An additive GRS was calculated for each study participant by adding one unit for the presence of each high-risk allele multiplied by the estimated effect size of that allele in the discovery samples. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression. Results The GRS was significantly associated with the incidence of CHD where the odds of CHD incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.74 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25–2.43, p for trend = 0.0004), compared to the lowest quintile. With respect to stroke, a weaker and non-significant positive association with GRS was apparent as the odds of stroke incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.36 times higher (95% CI = 0.90–2.06, p for trend = 0.188), compared to the lowest quintile. Conclusion A GRS relying on nine documented “CHD-specific” SNPs is significantly predictive of CHD but it was not found to be statistically significantly associated with incident stroke. PMID:22429504

  10. Additive Interaction of MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G Polymorphisms with Being Overweight/Obesity on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyuan Zhi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although both methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR C677T and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR A66G polymorphisms have been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, their interactions with being overweight/obesity on T2D risk remain unclear. To evaluate the associations of the two polymorphisms with T2D and their interactions with being overweight/obesity on T2D risk, a case-control study of 180 T2D patients and 350 healthy controls was conducted in northern China. Additive interaction was estimated using relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI, attributable proportion due to interaction (AP and synergy index (S. After adjustments for age and gender, borderline significant associations of the MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G polymorphisms with T2D were observed under recessive (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.98–2.10 and dominant (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.00–2.06 models, respectively. There was a significant interaction between the MTHFR 677TT genotype and being overweight/obesity on T2D risk (AP = 0.404, 95% CI: 0.047–0.761, in addition to the MTRR 66AG/GG genotypes (RERI = 1.703, 95% CI: 0.401–3.004; AP = 0.528, 95% CI: 0.223–0.834. Our findings suggest that individuals with the MTHFR 677TT or MTRR 66AG/GG genotypes are more susceptible to the detrimental effect of being overweight/obesity on T2D. Further large-scale studies are still needed to confirm our findings.

  11. Statistically Efficient Construction of α-Risk-Minimizing Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Taniai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator for α-risk-minimizing portfolio weights. Based on the work of Bassett et al. (2004, an α-risk-minimizing portfolio optimization is formulated as a linear quantile regression problem. The quantile regression method uses a pseudolikelihood based on an asymmetric Laplace reference density, and asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained. We apply the results of Hallin et al. (2008 to the problem of constructing α-risk-minimizing portfolios using residual signs and ranks and a general reference density. Monte Carlo simulations assess the performance of the proposed method. Empirical applications are also investigated.

  12. Associations between Ultrasound Measures of Abdominal Fat Distribution and Indices of Glucose Metabolism in a Population at High Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: The ADDITION-PRO Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Annelotte; Jørgensen, Marit E; Vistisen, Dorte

    2015-01-01

    metabolism in a population at high risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of 1342 participants of the ADDITION-PRO study. We measured visceral adipose tissue and subcutaneous adipose tissue with ultrasonography, anthropometrics and body fat percentage by bioelectrical impedance. Indices...... standard deviation difference in BMI, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, waist/height ratio and body fat percentage corresponded approximately to 0.2mmol/l higher fasting glucose, 0.7mmol/l higher 2-hr glucose, 0.06-0.1% higher HbA1c, 30 % lower HOMA index of insulin sensitivity, 20% lower Gutt...

  13. Lack of benefit for the addition of androgen deprivation therapy to dose-escalated radiotherapy in the treatment of intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Krauss, Daniel

    2012-02-01

    PURPOSE: Assessment of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) benefits for prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated radiotherapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: From 1991 to 2004, 1,044 patients with intermediate- (n = 782) or high-risk (n = 262) prostate cancer were treated with dose-escalated RT at William Beaumont Hospital. Patients received external-beam RT (EBRT) alone, brachytherapy (high or low dose rate), or high dose rate brachytherapy plus pelvic EBRT. Intermediate-risk patients had Gleason score 7, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) 10.0-19.9 ng\\/mL, or Stage T2b-T2c. High-risk patients had Gleason score 8-10, PSA >\\/=20, or Stage T3. Patients were additionally divided specifically by Gleason score, presence of palpable disease, and PSA level to further define subgroups benefitting from ADT. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 5 years; 420 patients received ADT + dose-escalated RT, and 624 received dose-escalated RT alone. For all patients, no advantages in any clinical endpoints at 8 years were associated with ADT administration. No differences in any endpoints were associated with ADT administration based on intermediate- vs. high-risk group or RT modality when analyzed separately. Patients with palpable disease plus Gleason >\\/=8 demonstrated improved clinical failure rates and a trend toward improved survival with ADT. Intermediate-risk patients treated with brachytherapy alone had improved biochemical control when ADT was given. CONCLUSION: Benefits of ADT in the setting of dose-escalated RT remain poorly defined. This question must continue to be addressed in prospective study.

  14. Do Additional Cardiac Surgical Procedures Increase the Surgical Risk in Patients 80 Years of age or Older Undergoing Coronary Bypass Gragting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan Erkanlı

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: In association with increasing life expectancy, the number of elderly individuals undergoing coronary bypass grafting (CABG and additional cardiac surgical procedures are increasing. In this study, we evaluated the effects of additional cardiac procedures and preoperative risk factors for postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients 80 years of age and older. Methods: The records of 29 patients aged 80 years and older (82.86±2.91 who had undergone coronary bypass surgery in the department of cardiac surgery between September 2009 and June 2012, were retrospectively reviewed. The subjects were divided into two groups: group 1 included the patients who had undergone CABG, group 2 consisted of those who had undergone CABG and additional cardiac procedures. Results: The mean age of the patients [14 male (48.3% 15 female (51.7%] was 82.86±2.91 years. The left internal thoracic artery was harvested for all patients. The mean number of graft per patient was 3.07±0.95. Carotid endarterectomy was performed in 3 patients before CABG. CABG and aortic valve replacement were performed in 1 patient. CABG, mitral valve replacement ant tricuspid plasty were performed in another patient. Furthermore, in one patient, abdominal aortic graft replacement due to ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and CABG was performed at the same session. The mean EuroSCORE was 5.06±5.16. Postoperative 30 days mortality was 6.8%, and the mean length of stay in hospital was 10.45±8.18 days. Conclusion: Coronary bypass surgery is an acceptable treatment method in patients 80 years of age and older. Although additional cardiac procedures may increase sugical risks, they can be successfully performed. (The Me­di­cal Bul­le­tin of Ha­se­ki 2014; 52: 14-8

  15. Apheresis and intravenous immunoglobulins used in addition to conventional therapy to treat high-risk pregnant antiphospholipid antibody syndrome patients. A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffatti, Amelia; Favaro, Maria; Hoxha, Ariela; Zambon, Alessandra; Marson, Piero; Del Ross, Teresa; Calligaro, Antonia; Tonello, Marta; Nardelli, Giovanni B

    2016-06-01

    Pregnant women with triple antibody positive antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) who have had thrombosis or a history of early, severe pregnancy complications are generally considered at high risk of pregnancy loss. The objectives of this study were to investigate the efficacy and safety of a relatively new treatment protocol used in addition to conventional therapy in high-risk pregnant patients affected with primary APS. The study's two inclusion criteria were: (1) the presence of triple antiphospholipid positivity, (2) previous thrombosis and/or a history of one or more early, severe pregnancy complications. Eighteen pregnancies occurring between 2002 and 2015 in 14 APS patients, (mean age 34.8±3.6 SD) were monitored. All 14 (100%) patients had triple antiphospholipid positivity. In addition, six of them (42.8%) had a history of thrombosis, four (28.6%) had one or more previous early and severe pregnancy complications, and four (30.8%) met both clinical study criteria. The study protocol included weekly plasmapheresis or immunoadsorption and fortnightly 1g/kg intravenous immunoglobulins. Seventeen of the pregnancies (94.4%) produced live neonates, all born between the 26th and 37th weeks of gestation (mean 33.1±3.5 SD). One female (5.5%), born prematurely at 24 weeks, died of sepsis a week after birth. There were two cases (11.1%) of severe pregnancy complications. No treatment side effects were registered. Given the high live birth rate and the safety associated to it, the study protocol described here could be taken into consideration by medical teams treating high-risk APS pregnant patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk of adverse events with bevacizumab addition to therapy in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lai XX

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Xi-Xi Lai, Ren-Ai Xu, Yu-Ping Li, Han Yang Department of Respiratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China Background: Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor ligand, has shown survival benefits in the treatment of many types of malignant tumors, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the risk of the most clinically relevant adverse events related to bevacizumab in advanced NSCLC.Methods: Databases from PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library up to August 2015, were searched to identify relevant studies. We included prospective randomized controlled Phase II/III clinical trials that compared therapy with or without bevacizumab for advanced NSCLC. Summary relative risk (RR and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random effects or fixed effects according to the heterogeneity among included trials.Results: A total of 3,745 patients from nine clinical trials were included in the meta-analysis. Summary RRs showed a statistically significant bevacizumab-associated increased risk in three of the adverse outcomes studied: proteinuria (RR =7.55, hypertension (RR =5.34, and hemorrhagic events (RR =2.61. No statistically significant differences were found for gastrointestinal perforation (P=0.60, arterial and venous thromboembolic events (P=0.35 and P=0.92, respectively, or fatal events (P=0.29.Conclusion: The addition of bevacizumab to therapy in advanced NSCLC did significantly increase the risk of proteinuria, hypertension, and hemorrhagic events but not arterial/venous thromboembolic events, gastrointestinal perforation, or fatal adverse events. Keywords: toxicities, angiogenesis inhibitors, non-small-cell lung carcinoma, meta-analysis, safety

  17. Additive manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumith, A; Thomas, M; Shah, Z; Coathup, M; Blunn, G

    2018-04-01

    Increasing innovation in rapid prototyping (RP) and additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D printing, is bringing about major changes in translational surgical research. This review describes the current position in the use of additive manufacturing in orthopaedic surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:455-60.

  18. Second Malignancies After Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Breast Cancer: Is There Increased Risk With Addition of Regional Radiation to Local Radiation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Sarah Nicole [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Tyldesley, Scott, E-mail: styldesl@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Li, Dongdong [Cancer Control Research Department, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Olson, Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Centre for the North, Prince George, British Columbia (Canada); McBride, Mary [Cancer Control Research Department, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2015-04-01

    Purpose: This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an increased risk of second malignancies (SM), particularly lung cancer, in early stage breast cancer patients treated with the addition of nodal fields to breast and/or chest wall radiation therapy (RT). Materials and Methods: Subjects were stage I/II female breast cancer patients 20 to 79 years of age, diagnosed between 1989 and 2005 and treated with adjuvant RT at our institution. Patients were included if they survived and did not have SM within 3 years of diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to compare SM incidence to cancer incidence in the general sex- and age-matched populations. Secondary malignancy risks in patients treated with local RT (LRT) to the breast/chest wall were compared to those in patients treated with locoregional RT (LRRT) to the breast/chest wall and regional nodes, using multivariate regression analysis (MVA) to account for covariates. Results: The cohort included 12,836 patients with a median follow-up of 8.4 years. LRRT was used in 18% of patients. The SIR comparing patients treated with LRT to the general population was 1.29 (CI: 1.21-1.38). No statistically significant increased incidence of in-field malignancies (SIR, 1.04; CI: 0.87-1.23) and lung cancers (SIR, 1.06; CI: 0.88-1.26) was detected. The SIR comparing patients treated with LRRT to the general population was 1.39 (CI: 1.17-1.64). No statistically significant increased incidence of in-field malignancies (SIR, 1.26; CI: 0.77-1.94) and lung cancers (SIR, 1.27; CI: 0.76-1.98) was detected. On MVA comparing LRRT to LRT, the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.20 for in-field malignancies (CI: 0.68-2.16) and 1.26 for lung cancer (CI: 0.67-2.36). The excess attributable risk (EAR) to regional RT was 3.1 per 10,000 person years (CI: −8.7 to 9.9). Conclusions: No statistically significant increased risk of second malignancy was detected after LRRT relative to

  19. Food additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GO About MedlinePlus Site Map FAQs Customer Support Health Topics Drugs & Supplements Videos & Tools Español You Are Here: Home → Medical Encyclopedia → Food additives URL of this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/ ...

  20. Use and groundwater risk potential of additives in heat transfer fluids for borehole heat exchangers; Verwendung und Grundwassergefaehrdungspotenzial von Additiven in Waermetraegerfluessigkeiten fuer Erdwaermesonden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilieva, Dafina

    2014-02-25

    Ground based heat exchanger systems need to be evaluated in terms of potential effects on groundwater quality due to the risk of leakage of borehole heat exchanger fluids. The aim of this work was to identify the compounds which are present in additive mixtures and to investigate experimentally their biodegradability and effects on the biodegradation of the major organic component in borehole heat exchanger fluids. A data survey was carried out in cooperation with the State Ministry of the Environment Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany to collect detailed information about the identity and application amounts of additives in borehole heat exchanger fluids. The survey revealed that numerous additives of various chemical classes and properties are used as corrosion inhibitors, alkalis, dyes, organic solvents, flavors, defoamers and surfactants. Furthermore, it was shown that glycols are among the most often applied antifreeze agents, the main component of the heat exchanger fluids. Based on the prioritization criteria (i) abundance in the borehole heat exchanger fluids, (ii) persistence, and (iii) mobility in the subsurface, the additives benzotriazole, tolyltriazole, 2-ethylhexanoate, benzoate and decane dicarboxylate were selected for further biodegradation experiments. The biodegradation experiments were carried out in batch systems with 60- or 70-m-deep sediments (sandstone or marl) as inoculum. The samples were taken during the installation of borehole heat exchanger systems at two different sites. The microcosms were conducted under oxic, denitrifying, iron- and sulfate-reducing as well as fermentative conditions at the presumed aquifer temperature of 12 C. The major component ethylene glycol was degraded under all conditions studied. The fastest biodegradation occurred under oxic and nitrate-reducing conditions (< 15 days). In all anoxic, nitrate free experiments with marl-sediment fermentation was the predominant process involved in the biodegradation of ethylene

  1. Postoperative inspiratory muscle training in addition to breathing exercises and early mobilization improves oxygenation in high-risk patients after lung cancer surgery: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocki, Barbara Cristina; Andreasen, Jan Jesper; Langer, Daniel; Souza, Domingos Savio R; Westerdahl, Elisabeth

    2016-05-01

    The aim was to investigate whether 2 weeks of inspiratory muscle training (IMT) could preserve respiratory muscle strength in high-risk patients referred for pulmonary resection on the suspicion of or confirmed lung cancer. Secondarily, we investigated the effect of the intervention on the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. The study was a single-centre, parallel-group, randomized trial with assessor blinding and intention-to-treat analysis. The intervention group (IG, n = 34) underwent 2 weeks of postoperative IMT twice daily with 2 × 30 breaths on a target intensity of 30% of maximal inspiratory pressure, in addition to standard postoperative physiotherapy. Standard physiotherapy in the control group (CG, n = 34) consisted of breathing exercises, coughing techniques and early mobilization. We measured respiratory muscle strength (maximal inspiratory/expiratory pressure, MIP/MEP), functional performance (6-min walk test), spirometry and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), assessed the day before surgery and again 3-5 days and 2 weeks postoperatively. Postoperative pulmonary complications were evaluated 2 weeks after surgery. The mean age was 70 ± 8 years and 57.5% were males. Thoracotomy was performed in 48.5% (n = 33) of cases. No effect of the intervention was found regarding MIP, MEP, lung volumes or functional performance at any time point. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 13% (n = 9), with no significant difference between groups [IG 6% (n = 2), CG 21% (n = 7), P = 0.14]. An improved SpO2 was found in the IG on the third and fourth postoperative days (Day 3: IG 93.8 ± 3.4 vs CG 91.9 ± 4.1%, P = 0.058; Day 4: IG 93.5 ± 3.5 vs CG 91 ± 3.9%, P = 0.02). We found no association between surgical procedure (thoracotomy versus thoracoscopy) and respiratory muscle strength, which was recovered in both groups 2 weeks after surgery. Two weeks of additional postoperative IMT, compared with standard physiotherapy alone, did not preserve

  2. Central arterial stiffness and diastolic dysfunction are associated with insulin resistance and abdominal obesity in young women but polycystic ovary syndrome does not confer additional risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, E; Coulson, R; Dunstan, F; Evans, W D; Blundell, H L; Luzio, S D; Dunseath, G; Halcox, J P; Fraser, A G; Rees, D A

    2014-09-01

    Are arterial stiffness, carotid intima-media thickness and diastolic dysfunction increased in young women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) independently of the effects of obesity? Insulin resistance and central obesity are associated with subclinical cardiovascular dysfunction in young women, but a diagnosis of PCOS does not appear to confer additional risk at this age. Some studies have shown that young women with PCOS may have increased measures of cardiovascular risk, including arterial stiffness, carotid intima-media thickness and myocardial dysfunction. However, it is difficult to establish how much of this risk is due to PCOS per se and how much is due to obesity and insulin resistance, which are common in PCOS and themselves associated with greater vascular risk. This cross-sectional study comprised 84 women with PCOS and 95 healthy volunteers, aged 16-45 years. The study was conducted in a university hospital. Subjects underwent a comprehensive assessment of body composition (including computed tomography (CT) assessment of visceral fat; VF), measurements of arterial stiffness (aortic pulse wave velocity; aPWV), common carotid intima-media thickness (ccIMT), diastolic function (longitudinal tissue velocity; e':a') and endocrinological measures. A sample size of 80 in each group gave 80% power for detecting a difference of 0.45 m/s in aPWV or a difference of 0.25 in e':a'. After adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI), PCOS subjects had a greater insulin response (insulin area under the curve-IAUC) following glucose challenge (adjusted difference [AD] 35 900 pmol min/l, P insulin resistance were only partly attenuated by adjusting for logVF. There was no significant relationship between aPWV or e':a' and either testosterone or adiponectin. The study recruited young women meeting the Rotterdam criteria for PCOS diagnosis; hence our findings may not be generalizable to older patients or those meeting other definitions of the syndrome. Biochemical

  3. The anti-neoplastic activity of Vandetanib against high-risk medulloblastoma variants is profoundly enhanced by additional PI3K inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craveiro, Rogerio B; Ehrhardt, Michael; Velz, Julia; Olschewski, Martin; Goetz, Barbara; Pietsch, Torsten; Dilloo, Dagmar

    2017-07-18

    Medulloblastoma is comprised of at least four molecular subgroups with distinct clinical outcome (WHO classification 2016). SHH-TP53-mutated as well as MYC-amplified Non-WNT/Non-SHH medulloblastoma show the worst prognosis.Here we present evidence that single application of the multi-kinase inhibitor Vandetanib displays anti-neoplastic efficacy against cell lines derived from high-risk SHH-TP53-mutated and MYC-amplified Non-WNT/Non-SHH medulloblastoma. The narrow target spectrum of Vandetanib along with a favourable toxicity profile renders this drug ideal for multimodal treatment approaches. In this context our investigation documents that Vandetanib in combination with the clinically available PI3K inhibitor GDC-0941 leads to enhanced cytotoxicity against MYC-amplified and SHH-TP53-mutated medulloblastoma. In line with these findings we show for MYC-amplified medulloblastoma a profound reduction in activity of the oncogenes STAT3 and AKT. Furthermore, we document that Vandetanib and the standard chemotherapeutic Etoposide display additive anti-neoplastic efficacy in the investigated medulloblastoma cell lines that could be further enhanced by PI3K inhibition. Of note, the combination of Vandetanib, GDC-0941 and Etoposide results in MYC-amplified and SHH-TP53-mutated cell lines in complete loss of cell viability. Our findings therefore provide a rational to further evaluate Vandetanib in combination with PI3K inhibitors as well as standard chemotherapeutics in vivo for the treatment of most aggressive medulloblastoma variants.

  4. [Food additives and healthiness].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinonen, Marina

    2014-01-01

    Additives are used for improving food structure or preventing its spoilage, for example. Many substances used as additives are also naturally present in food. The safety of additives is evaluated according to commonly agreed principles. If high concentrations of an additive cause adverse health effects for humans, a limit of acceptable daily intake (ADI) is set for it. An additive is a risk only when ADI is exceeded. The healthiness of food is measured on the basis of nutrient density and scientifically proven effects.

  5. Associations between ultrasound measures of abdominal fat distribution and indices of glucose metabolism in a population at high risk of type 2 diabetes: the ADDITION-PRO study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annelotte Philipsen

    Full Text Available Visceral adipose tissue measured by CT or MRI is strongly associated with an adverse metabolic risk profile. We assessed whether similar associations can be found with ultrasonography, by quantifying the strength of the relationship between different measures of obesity and indices of glucose metabolism in a population at high risk of type 2 diabetes.A cross-sectional analysis of 1342 participants of the ADDITION-PRO study. We measured visceral adipose tissue and subcutaneous adipose tissue with ultrasonography, anthropometrics and body fat percentage by bioelectrical impedance. Indices of glucose metabolism were derived from a three point oral glucose tolerance test. Linear regression of obesity measures on indices of glucose metabolism was performed.Mean age was 66.2 years, BMI 26.9kg/m2, subcutaneous adipose tissue 2.5cm and visceral adipose tissue 8.0cm. All measures of obesity were positively associated with indicators of glycaemia and inversely associated with indicators of insulin sensitivity. Associations were of equivalent magnitude except for subcutaneous adipose tissue and the visceral/subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio, which showed weaker associations. One standard deviation difference in BMI, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, waist/height ratio and body fat percentage corresponded approximately to 0.2mmol/l higher fasting glucose, 0.7mmol/l higher 2-hr glucose, 0.06-0.1% higher HbA1c, 30 % lower HOMA index of insulin sensitivity, 20% lower Gutt's index of insulin sensitivity, and 100 unit higher Stumvoll's index of beta-cell function. After adjustment for waist circumference visceral adipose tissue was still significantly associated with glucose intolerance and insulin resistance, whereas there was a trend towards inverse or no associations with subcutaneous adipose tissue. After adjustment, a 1cm increase in visceral adipose tissue was associated with ~5% lower insulin sensitivity (p≤0.0004 and ~0.18mmol/l higher 2-hr

  6. Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C

    2016-08-15

    Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Does the addition of deep breathing exercises to physiotherapy-directed early mobilisation alter patient outcomes following high-risk open upper abdominal surgery? Cluster randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Y R; Li, S K; Rickard, M J F X

    2013-09-01

    To investigate whether the inclusion of deep breathing exercises in physiotherapy-directed early mobilisation confers any additional benefit in reducing postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) when patients are treated once daily after elective open upper abdominal surgery. This study also compared postoperative outcomes following early and delayed mobilisation. Cluster randomised controlled trial. Single-centre study in a teaching hospital. Eighty-six high-risk patients undergoing elective open upper abdominal surgery. Three groups: early mobilisation (Group A), early mobilisation plus breathing exercises (Group B), and delayed mobilisation (mobilised from third postoperative day) plus breathing exercises (Group C). PPCs and postoperative outcomes [number of days until discharge from physiotherapy, physiotherapy input and length of stay (LOS)]. There was no significant difference in PPCs between Groups A and B. The LOS for Group A {mean 10.7 [standard deviation (SD) 5.0] days} was significantly shorter than the LOS for Groups B [mean 16.7 (SD 9.7) days] and C [mean 15.2 (SD 9.8) days; P=0.036]. The greatest difference was between Groups A and B (mean difference -5.93, 95% confidence interval -10.22 to -1.65; P=0.008). Group C had fewer smokers (26%) and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0%) compared with Group B (53% and 14%, respectively). This may have led to fewer PPCs in Group C, but the difference was not significant. Despite Group C having fewer PPCs and less physiotherapy input, the number of days until discharge from physiotherapy and LOS were similar to Group B. The addition of deep breathing exercises to physiotherapy-directed early mobilisation did not further reduce PPCs compared with mobility alone. PPCs can be reduced with once-daily physiotherapy if the patients are mobilised to a moderate level of exertion. Delayed mobilisation tended to increase physiotherapy input and the number of days until discharge from physiotherapy

  8. Cardiac MRI in addition to MR angiography: a longitudinal study in vascular risk patients; Kardiale MRT als Ergaenzung zur MR-Angiografie: Eine longitudinale Studie bei vaskulaeren Risikopatienten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, A.; Grimm, F.; Fenchel, M.; Kramer, U.; Doering, J.S.; Klumpp, B.; Claussen, C.D.; Miller, S. [Abt. fuer Radiologische Diagnostik, Eberhard-Karls-Univ. Tuebingen (Germany); Scheule, A. [Abt. fuer Herz-, Thorax- und Gefaesschirurgie, Eberhard-Karls-Univ. Tuebingen (Germany); May, A.E. [Abt. fuer Kardiologie, Eberhard-Karls-Univ. Tuebingen (Germany)

    2008-05-15

    Purpose: the aim of the study was to assess the feasibility and additional diagnostic information of cardiac MRI as a supplement to state-of-the-art MR angiography (MRA) in the case of vascular risk patients. Therefore, the prevalence of delayed myocardial enhancement (DE) was determined in patients suffering from peripheral artery disease (PAD) and a clinical follow-up was evaluated after 2 years. Materials and method: 87 consecutive patients (ages 66 {+-} 10 years, 67 males) with symptomatic peripheral arterial occlusive disease (n = 68) or abdominal aortic aneurysm (n = 19) were examined using delayed cardiac enhancement (DE) within the clinical indication of MRA at a 1.5T system. A follow-up examination was carried out two years later (24 months {+-} 4 months) with regards to cardiac events (cardiac death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, heart insufficiency, coronary revascularization). Results: in total, 40/87 patients had myocardial infarctions shown in MRI (46%). In 25 patients (29%), the myocardial infarction was already known, while in 15 patients (17%) an occult progressing infarction was diagnosed (38% of the myocardial infarcts). Follow-up data was able to be obtained after 2 years for 82 patients. 15 patients had a major cardiac event during the follow-up period, and 10 (67%) of them already showed DE in the MRI. In the group with occult progressing infarctions, cardiac events occurred in 40% (6/15 patients, cardiac death n = 1, ischemia n = 4, heart insufficiency n = 1, bypass n = 1), in patients with known infarction in 17% (4/23 patients, cardiac death n = 1, ischemia n = 3, bypass n = 2) and in 11% of patients without myocardial scars (5/44 patients, cardiac death n = 1, ischemia n = 2, heart insufficiency n = 2). (orig.)

  9. Short-term salivary acetaldehyde increase due to direct exposure to alcoholic beverages as an additional cancer risk factor beyond ethanol metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monakhova Yulia B

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing body of evidence now implicates acetaldehyde as a major underlying factor for the carcinogenicity of alcoholic beverages and especially for oesophageal and oral cancer. Acetaldehyde associated with alcohol consumption is regarded as 'carcinogenic to humans' (IARC Group 1, with sufficient evidence available for the oesophagus, head and neck as sites of carcinogenicity. At present, research into the mechanistic aspects of acetaldehyde-related oral cancer has been focused on salivary acetaldehyde that is formed either from ethanol metabolism in the epithelia or from microbial oxidation of ethanol by the oral microflora. This study was conducted to evaluate the role of the acetaldehyde that is found as a component of alcoholic beverages as an additional factor in the aetiology of oral cancer. Methods Salivary acetaldehyde levels were determined in the context of sensory analysis of different alcoholic beverages (beer, cider, wine, sherry, vodka, calvados, grape marc spirit, tequila, cherry spirit, without swallowing, to exclude systemic ethanol metabolism. Results The rinsing of the mouth for 30 seconds with an alcoholic beverage is able to increase salivary acetaldehyde above levels previously judged to be carcinogenic in vitro, with levels up to 1000 μM in cases of beverages with extreme acetaldehyde content. In general, the highest salivary acetaldehyde concentration was found in all cases in the saliva 30 sec after using the beverages (average 353 μM. The average concentration then decreased at the 2-min (156 μM, 5-min (76 μM and 10-min (40 μM sampling points. The salivary acetaldehyde concentration depends primarily on the direct ingestion of acetaldehyde contained in the beverages at the 30-sec sampling, while the influence of the metabolic formation from ethanol becomes the major factor at the 2-min sampling point. Conclusions This study offers a plausible mechanism to explain the increased risk for oral

  10. STAT4 Associates with SLE Through Two Independent Effects that Correlate with Gene Expression and Act Additively with IRF5 to Increase Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelson, Anna-Karin; Delgado-Vega, Angélica M.; Kozyrev, Sergey V.; Sánchez, Elena; Velázquez-Cruz, Rafael; Eriksson, Niclas; Wojcik, Jerome; Reddy, Prasad Linga; Lima, Guadalupe; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Migliaresi, Sergio; Baca, Vicente; Orozco, Lorena; Witte, Torsten; Ortego-Centeno, Norberto; Abderrahim, Hadi; Pons-Estel, Bernardo A.; Gutiérrez, Carmen; Suárez, Ana; González-Escribano, Maria Francisca; Martin, Javier; Alarcón-Riquelme, Marta E.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To confirm and define the genetic association of STAT4 and systemic lupus erythematosus, investigate the possibility of correlations with differential splicing and/or expression levels, and genetic interaction with IRF5. Methods 30 tag SNPs were genotyped in an independent set of Spanish cases and controls. SNPs surviving correction for multiple tests were genotyped in 5 new sets of cases and controls for replication. STAT4 cDNA was analyzed by 5’-RACE PCR and sequencing. Expression levels were measured by quantitative PCR. Results In the fine-mapping, four SNPs were significant after correction for multiple testing, with rs3821236 and rs3024866 as the strongest signals, followed by the previously associated rs7574865, and by rs1467199. Association was replicated in all cohorts. After conditional regression analyses, two major independent signals represented by SNPs rs3821236 and rs7574865, remained significant across the sets. These SNPs belong to separate haplotype blocks. High levels of STAT4 expression correlated with SNPs rs3821236, rs3024866 (both in the same haplotype block) and rs7574865 but not with other SNPs. We also detected transcription of alternative tissue-specific exons 1, indicating presence of tissue-specific promoters of potential importance in the expression of STAT4. No interaction with associated SNPs of IRF5 was observed using regression analysis. Conclusions These data confirm STAT4 as a susceptibility gene for SLE and suggest the presence of at least two functional variants affecting levels of STAT4. Our results also indicate that both genes STAT4 and IRF5 act additively to increase risk for SLE. PMID:19019891

  11. STAT4 associates with systemic lupus erythematosus through two independent effects that correlate with gene expression and act additively with IRF5 to increase risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelson, A-K; Delgado-Vega, A M; Kozyrev, S V; Sánchez, E; Velázquez-Cruz, R; Eriksson, N; Wojcik, J; Linga Reddy, M V P; Lima, G; D'Alfonso, S; Migliaresi, S; Baca, V; Orozco, L; Witte, T; Ortego-Centeno, N; Abderrahim, H; Pons-Estel, B A; Gutiérrez, C; Suárez, A; González-Escribano, M F; Martin, J; Alarcón-Riquelme, M E

    2009-11-01

    To confirm and define the genetic association of STAT4 and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), investigate the possibility of correlations with differential splicing and/or expression levels, and genetic interaction with IRF5. 30 tag SNPs were genotyped in an independent set of Spanish cases and controls. SNPs surviving correction for multiple tests were genotyped in five new sets of cases and controls for replication. STAT4 cDNA was analysed by 5'-RACE PCR and sequencing. Expression levels were measured by quantitative PCR. In the fine mapping, four SNPs were significant after correction for multiple testing, with rs3821236 and rs3024866 as the strongest signals, followed by the previously associated rs7574865, and by rs1467199. Association was replicated in all cohorts. After conditional regression analyses, two major independent signals, represented by SNPs rs3821236 and rs7574865, remained significant across the sets. These SNPs belong to separate haplotype blocks. High levels of STAT4 expression correlated with SNPs rs3821236, rs3024866 (both in the same haplotype block) and rs7574865 but not with other SNPs. Transcription of alternative tissue-specific exons 1, indicating the presence of tissue-specific promoters of potential importance in the expression of STAT4, was also detected. No interaction with associated SNPs of IRF5 was observed using regression analysis. These data confirm STAT4 as a susceptibility gene for SLE and suggest the presence of at least two functional variants affecting levels of STAT4. The results also indicate that the genes STAT4 and IRF5 act additively to increase the risk for SLE.

  12. Additive prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction to the TIMI risk score for in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xue-Biao; Liu, Yuan-Hui; He, Peng-Cheng; Jiang, Lei; Zhou, Ying-Ling; Chen, Ji-Yan; Tan, Ning; Yu, Dan-Qing

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the addition of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the TIMI risk score enhances the prediction of in-hospital and long-term death in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. 673 patients with STEMI were divided into three groups based on TIMI risk score for STEMI: low-risk group (TIMI ≤3, n = 213), moderate-risk group (TIMI 4-6, n = 285), and high-risk group (TIMI ≥7, n = 175). The predictive value was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk predictors. The rates of in-hospital death (0.5 vs 3.2 vs 10.3 %, p risk group. Multivariate analysis showed that TIMI risk score (OR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.04-1.48, P = 0.015) and LVEF (OR 3.85, 95 % CI 1.58-10.43, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. LVEF had good predictive value for in-hospital death (AUC: 0.838 vs 0.803, p = 0.571) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.743 vs 0.728, p = 0.775), which was similar to TIMI risk score. When compared with the TIMI risk score alone, the addition of LVEF was associated with significant improvements in predicting in-hospital (AUC: 0.854 vs 0.803, p = 0.033) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.763 vs 0.728, p = 0.016). The addition of LVEF to TIMI risk score enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.864 for in-hospital death, p value to TIMI risk score.

  13. The impact of hazardous industrial facilities on housing prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric hedonic price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grislain-Letrémy, Céline; Katossky, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    The willingness of households to pay for prevention against industrial risks can be revealed by real estate markets. By using very rich microdata, we study housing prices in the vicinity of hazardous industries near three important French cities. We show that the impact of hazardous plants...... to important biases in the estimated value of the impact of hazardous plants on housing values....

  14. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing [Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut (United States); Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J. [Prostate Cancer Foundation of Chicago, Westmont, Illinois (United States); Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A. [21st Century Oncology, Inc, Fort Myers, Florida (United States); D' Amico, Anthony V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  15. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, Brent S.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.; Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A.; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  16. Two-Sample Statistics for Testing the Equality of Survival Functions Against Improper Semi-parametric Accelerated Failure Time Alternatives: An Application to the Analysis of a Breast Cancer Clinical Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    BROËT, PHILIPPE; TSODIKOV, ALEXANDER; DE RYCKE, YANN; MOREAU, THIERRY

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents two-sample statistics suited for testing equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives. These tests are designed for comparing either the short- or the long-term effect of a prognostic factor, or both. These statistics are obtained as partial likelihood score statistics from a time-dependent Cox model. As a consequence, the proposed tests can be very easily implemented using widely available software. A breast cancer clinical trial is presented as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests. PMID:15293627

  17. Two-sample statistics for testing the equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives: an application to the analysis of a breast cancer clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broët, Philippe; Tsodikov, Alexander; De Rycke, Yann; Moreau, Thierry

    2004-06-01

    This paper presents two-sample statistics suited for testing equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives. These tests are designed for comparing either the short- or the long-term effect of a prognostic factor, or both. These statistics are obtained as partial likelihood score statistics from a time-dependent Cox model. As a consequence, the proposed tests can be very easily implemented using widely available software. A breast cancer clinical trial is presented as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests.

  18. Additive benefit of higher testosterone levels and vitamin D plus calcium supplementation in regard to fall risk reduction among older men and women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both testosterone and vitamin D levels affect muscle and thus may also affect risk of falling. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between sex hormone levels and the risk of falling in older men and women. 199 men and 246 women age 65 or older living at home followed for 3 years...

  19. Additive and interaction effects at three amino acid positions in HLA-DQ and HLA-DR molecules drive type 1 diabetes risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Xinli; Deutsch, Aaron J; Lenz, Tobias L; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Han, Buhm; Chen, Wei-Min; Howson, Joanna M M; Todd, John A; de Bakker, Paul I W; Rich, Stephen S; Raychaudhuri, Soumya

    Variation in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes accounts for one-half of the genetic risk in type 1 diabetes (T1D). Amino acid changes in the HLA-DR and HLA-DQ molecules mediate most of the risk, but extensive linkage disequilibrium complicates the localization of independent effects. Using

  20. Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman-Miller, Deborah

    2013-11-02

    Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

  1. Estimation of the lifetime distribution of mechatronic systems in the presence of a covariate: A comparison among parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrowski, Sebastian; Chen, Hong; Döring, Maik; Jensen, Uwe; Schinköthe, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    In practice manufacturers may have lots of failure data of similar products using the same technology basis under different operating conditions. Thus, one can try to derive predictions for the distribution of the lifetime of newly developed components or new application environments through the existing data using regression models based on covariates. Three categories of such regression models are considered: a parametric, a semiparametric and a nonparametric approach. First, we assume that the lifetime is Weibull distributed, where its parameters are modelled as linear functions of the covariate. Second, the Cox proportional hazards model, well-known in Survival Analysis, is applied. Finally, a kernel estimator is used to interpolate between empirical distribution functions. In particular the last case is new in the context of reliability analysis. We propose a goodness of fit measure (GoF), which can be applied to all three types of regression models. Using this GoF measure we discuss a new model selection procedure. To illustrate this method of reliability prediction, the three classes of regression models are applied to real test data of motor experiments. Further the performance of the approaches is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • We estimate the lifetime distribution in the presence of a covariate. • Three types of regression models are considered and compared. • A new nonparametric estimator based on our particular data structure is introduced. • We propose a goodness of fit measure and show a new model selection procedure. • A case study with real data and Monte Carlo simulations are performed

  2. Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

    2017-12-01

    Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Penalized variable selection in competing risks regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhixuan; Parikh, Chirag R; Zhou, Bingqing

    2017-07-01

    Penalized variable selection methods have been extensively studied for standard time-to-event data. Such methods cannot be directly applied when subjects are at risk of multiple mutually exclusive events, known as competing risks. The proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) model proposed by Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) has become a popular semi-parametric model for time-to-event data with competing risks. It allows for direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a general penalized variable selection strategy that simultaneously handles variable selection and parameter estimation in the PSH model. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed penalized estimators and modify the coordinate descent algorithm for implementation. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Data from deceased donor kidney transplants from the United Network of Organ Sharing illustrate the utility of the proposed method.

  4. An analysis of the risk of introduction of additional strains of the rust puccinia psidii Winter ('Ohi'a Rust) to Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, Lloyd; La Rosa, Anne Marie

    2010-01-01

    In April 2005, the rust fungus Puccinia psidii (most widely known as guava rust or eucalyptus rust) was found in Hawai'i. This was the first time this rust had been found outside the Neotropics (broadly-defined, including subtropical Florida, where the rust first established in the 1970s). First detected on a nursery-grown 'ohi'a plant, it became known as ''ohi'a rust'in Hawai'i. The rust spread rapidly and by August 2005 had been found throughout the main Hawaiian Islands. The rust probably reached Hawai'i via the live plant trade or via the foliage trade. In Hawai'i, the rust has infected three native plant species and at least eight non-native species. Effects have been substantial on the endangered endemic plant Eugenia koolauensis and the introduced rose apple, Syzygium jambos. Billions of yellow, asexual urediniospores are produced on rose apple, but a complete life cycle (involving sexual reproduction) has not yet been observed. The rust is autoecious (no alternate host known) on Myrtaceae. The strain introduced into Hawai'i is found sparingly on 'ohi'a (Metrosideros polymorpha), the dominant tree of Hawai'i's forests, with sporadic damage detected to date. The introduction of a rust strain that causes widespread damage to 'ohi'a would be catastrophic for Hawai'i's native biodiversity. Most imports of material potentially contaminated with rust are shipped to Hawai'i from Florida and California (from which P. psidii was reported in late 2005 by Mellano, 2006). Florida is known to have multiple strains. The identity of the strain or strains in California is unclear, but one of them is known to infect myrtle, Myrtus communis, a species commonly imported into Hawai'i. It is important to ecosystem conservation and commercial forestry that additional rust strains or genotypes be prevented from establishing in Hawai'i. The purpose of this analysis of risk is to evaluate the need for an interim rule by the Hawai'i Department of Agriculture to regulate plant

  5. Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo

    2015-04-01

    This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.

  6. Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solberg Trygve

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

  7. Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebhardt Albrecht

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health issue in Burundi in terms of both morbidity and mortality, with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is still the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Because of the severe health and economic burden of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies/researches have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria transmission. This paper considers the modelling of the dependence of malaria cases on spatial determinants and climatic covariates including rainfall, temperature and humidity in Burundi. Methods The analysis carried out in this work exploits real monthly data collected in the area of Burundi over 12 years (1996-2007. Semi-parametric regression models are used. The spatial analysis is based on a geo-additive model using provinces as the geographic units of study. The spatial effect is split into structured (correlated and unstructured (uncorrelated components. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The effects of the continuous covariates are modelled by cubic p-splines with 20 equidistant knots and second order random walk penalty. For the spatially correlated effect, Markov random field prior is chosen. The spatially uncorrelated effects are assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian. The effects of climatic covariates and the effects of other spatial determinants are estimated simultaneously in a unified regression framework. Results The results obtained from the proposed model suggest that although malaria incidence in a given month is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous months, regional patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables have been identified

  8. Changes in physical activity and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barakat, A.; Williams, K.M.; Prevost, A.T.; Kinmonth, A.L.; Wareham, N.J.; Griffin, S.J.; Simmons, R.K.

    2013-01-01

    Aims To describe change in physical activity over 1year and associations with change in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a population with screen-detected Type2 diabetes. Methods Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent measurement of self-reported

  9. Elevated soluble urokinase receptor values in CSF, age and bacterial meningitis infection are independent and additive risk factors of fatal outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tzanakaki, G; Paparoupa, M; Kyprianou, M

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential role of cerebrospinal fluid soluble urokinase receptor (suPAR) level, infection and age as risk factors for fatal outcome in patients suspected of having meningitis and/or bacteraemia on admission to hospital. A total of 545 cerebrospinal...

  10. Design of the SHAPE-2 study: the effect of physical activity, in addition to weight loss, on biomarkers of postmenopausal breast cancer risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gemert, Willemijn A.M.; Iestra, Jolein I.; Schuit, Albertine J.; May, Anne M.; Takken, Tim; Veldhuis, Wouter B.; van der Palen, Jacobus Adrianus Maria; Wittink, Harriet; Peeters, Petra H.M.; Monninkhof, Evelyn M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Physical inactivity and overweight are two known risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer. Former exercise intervention studies showed that physical activity influences sex hormone levels, known to be related to postmenopausal breast cancer, mainly when concordant loss of body weight

  11. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  12. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  13. Earthworm biomass as additional information for risk assessment of heavy metal biomagnification: a case study for dredged sediment-derived soils and polluted floodplain soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandecasteele, Bart; Samyn, Jurgen; Quataert, Paul; Muys, Bart; Tack, Filip M.G.

    2004-01-01

    The important role of earthworms in the biomagnification of heavy metals in terrestrial ecosystems is widely recognised. Differences in earthworm biomass between sites is mostly not accounted for in ecological risk assessment. These differences may be large depending on soil properties and pollution status. A survey of earthworm biomass and colonisation rate was carried out on dredged sediment-derived soils (DSDS). Results were compared with observations for the surrounding alluvial plains. Mainly grain size distribution and time since disposal determined earthworm biomass on DSDS, while soil pollution status of the DSDS was of lesser importance. Highest earthworm biomass was observed on sandy loam DSDS disposed at least 40 years ago. - Polluted clayey dredged sediment-derived soils have a relatively low risk for heavy metal biomagnification due to slow earthworm colonisation

  14. Consideration of QRS complex in addition to ST-segment abnormalities in the estimated "risk region" during acute anterior myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Hellemond, Irene E. G.; Bouwmeester, Sjoerd; Olson, Charles W.

    2011-01-01

    a falsely low estimated total MaR if determined by using ST segment-based methods. The purpose of this study was to investigate if consideration of the abnormalities in the QRS complex, in addition to those in the ST segment, provides a more accurate estimated total MaR during anterior AMI than...

  15. Biochemical alteration in children with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome associated with an increased risk of sensorineural hearing loss; additional insights in cochlear renal relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Mashad, Ghada Mohamed; Abo El Fotoh, Wafaa Moustafa M; Zein El Abedein, Ahmed Mahmoud; Abd El Sadek, Fatma Abd El Raoof

    2017-06-01

    Children with Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome (INS) are at risk of hearing loss due to the adverse impact of medications and related immunological and genetic factors on both cochlea and kidney. So this work was planned to evaluate hearing status in children with INS and to clarify the possible associated risk factors by interpreting the clinical and laboratory profiles of those children. Ninety children with INS aged 5-14 years [30 patients with steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS), 30 patients with steroid dependent/frequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome (SDNS/FRNS), and 30 patients with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS)], and 90 age and sex matched normal controls were enrolled into this study. Laboratory measurements of serum calcium, creatinine, cholesterol, blood urea and other relevant investigations were done. Pure tone audiometry was done with the sensory-neural hearing loss (SNHL) diagnosed when the level bone conduction was >20 dB and the difference in air to the bone gap was children with INS had SNHL, mostly of mild degree HL and primarily occurred at the lower frequencies. A highly significant statistical difference between controls and various types of nephrotic syndrome regarding pure tone audiometry measurements at frequencies 250, 500, 1000 Hz, whereas insignificant difference interpreting pure tone audiometry measurements in 2000, 4000 and 8000 Hz. Children with different phenotypes of nephrotic syndrome are at risk of sensorineural hearing impairment. The hazards associated with this impairment were higher blood pressure, hypercholesterolemia, hypoalbuminemia, and hypocalcemia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Effect of intravenous ondansetron on QT interval prolongation in patients with cardiovascular disease and additional risk factors for torsades: a prospective, observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hafermann MJ

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Matthew J Hafermann1, Rocsanna Namdar2, Gretchen E Seibold2,3, Robert Lee Page 2nd2,31University of Washington Medical Center, Department of Pharmacy, Seattle, WA; 2University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Pharmacy, Aurora, CO; 3University of Colorado Hospital, Department of Pharmacy, Aurora, CO USABackground: The 5-hydroxytryptamine type 3 antagonists, or setrons (eg, ondansetron, are commonly used for nausea and vomiting in the hospital setting. In 2001, droperidol was given a black box warning because it was found to prolong the QT interval and induce arrhythmias. The setrons share with droperidol the same potential proarrhythmic mechanisms, but limited data exist concerning their effects on the QT interval in individuals at high risk for torsades de pointes.Methods: Forty hospitalized patients admitted for heart failure or acute coronary syndromes with one or more risk factors for torsades de pointes and an order for intravenous ondansetron 4 mg were enrolled in this prospective, observational study. The QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc was obtained via a 12-lead electrocardiogram on admission and again 120 minutes after the first dose of ondansetron in order to determine the mean change in QTc following ondansetron exposure.Results: The mean time interval between obtaining the baseline electrocardiogram and the second electrocardiogram following ondansetron administration was 3.5 ± 2.14 hours. In the total population, the QTc interval was prolonged by 19.3 ± 18 msec (P < 0.0001 120 minutes after ondansetron administration. For patients with an acute coronary syndrome and those with heart failure, QTc was prolonged by 18.3 ± 20 msec (P < 0.0001 and 20.6 ± 20 msec (P < 0.0012, respectively. Following ondansetron exposure, 31% and 46% in the heart failure and acute coronary syndromes groups, respectively, met gender-related thresholds for a prolonged QTc.Conclusion: Our study found QTc prolongation due to

  17. Palivizumab for immunoprophylaxis of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis in high-risk infants and young children: a systematic review and additional economic modelling of subgroup analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D; Bayliss, S; Meads, C

    2011-01-01

    Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a seasonal infectious disease, with epidemics occurring annually from October to March in the UK. It is a very common infection in infants and young children and can lead to hospitalisation, particularly in those who are premature or who have chronic lung disease (CLD) or congenital heart disease (CHD). Palivizumab (Synagis®, MedImmune) is a monoclonal antibody designed to provide passive immunity against RSV and thereby prevent or reduce the severity of RSV infection. It is licensed for the prevention of serious lower respiratory tract infection caused by RSV in children at high risk. While it is recognised that a policy of using palivizumab for all children who meet the licensed indication does not meet conventional UK standards of cost-effectiveness, most clinicians feel that its use is justified in some children. To use systematic review evidence to estimate the cost-effectiveness of immunoprophylaxis of RSV using palivizumab in different subgroups of children with or without CLD or CHD who are at high risk of serious morbidity from RSV infection. A systematic review of the literature and an economic evaluation was carried out. The bibliographic databases included the Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] and five other databases, from inception to 2009. Research registries of ongoing trials including Current Controlled Trials metaRegister, Clinical Trials.gov and the National Institute for Health Research Clinical Research Network Portfolio were also searched. Searches were conducted for prognostic and hospitalisation studies covering 1950-2009 (the original report searches conducted in 2007 covering the period 1950-2007 were rerun in August 2009 to cover the period 2007-9) and the database of all references from the original report was sifted to

  18. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  19. Addition of a non-immersive virtual reality component to treadmill training to reduce fall risk in older adults (V-TIME): a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirelman, Anat; Rochester, Lynn; Maidan, Inbal; Del Din, Silvia; Alcock, Lisa; Nieuwhof, Freek; Rikkert, Marcel Olde; Bloem, Bastiaan R; Pelosin, Elisa; Avanzino, Laura; Abbruzzese, Giovanni; Dockx, Kim; Bekkers, Esther; Giladi, Nir; Nieuwboer, Alice; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M

    2016-09-17

    Age-associated motor and cognitive deficits increase the risk of falls, a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Because of the significant ramifications of falls, many interventions have been proposed, but few have aimed to prevent falls via an integrated approach targeting both motor and cognitive function. We aimed to test the hypothesis that an intervention combining treadmill training with non-immersive virtual reality (VR) to target both cognitive aspects of safe ambulation and mobility would lead to fewer falls than would treadmill training alone. We carried out this randomised controlled trial at five clinical centres across five countries (Belgium, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK). Adults aged 60-90 years with a high risk of falls based on a history of two or more falls in the 6 months before the study and with varied motor and cognitive deficits were randomly assigned by use of computer-based allocation to receive 6 weeks of either treadmill training plus VR or treadmill training alone. Randomisation was stratified by subgroups of patients (those with a history of idiopathic falls, those with mild cognitive impairment, and those with Parkinson's disease) and sex, with stratification per clinical site. Group allocation was done by a third party not involved in onsite study procedures. Both groups aimed to train three times per week for 6 weeks, with each session lasting about 45 min and structured training progression individualised to the participant's level of performance. The VR system consisted of a motion-capture camera and a computer-generated simulation projected on to a large screen, which was specifically designed to reduce fall risk in older adults by including real-life challenges such as obstacles, multiple pathways, and distracters that required continual adjustment of steps. The primary outcome was the incident rate of falls during the 6 months after the end of training, which was assessed in a modified intention

  20. Residual tumor size and IGCCCG risk classification predict additional vascular procedures in patients with germ cell tumors and residual tumor resection: a multicenter analysis of the German Testicular Cancer Study Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Christian; Pfister, David; Busch, Jonas; Bingöl, Cigdem; Ranft, Ulrich; Schrader, Mark; Dieckmann, Klaus-Peter; Heidenreich, Axel; Albers, Peter

    2012-02-01

    Residual tumor resection (RTR) after chemotherapy in patients with advanced germ cell tumors (GCT) is an important part of the multimodal treatment. To provide a complete resection of residual tumor, additional surgical procedures are sometimes necessary. In particular, additional vascular interventions are high-risk procedures that require multidisciplinary planning and adequate resources to optimize outcome. The aim was to identify parameters that predict additional vascular procedures during RTR in GCT patients. A retrospective analysis was performed in 402 GCT patients who underwent 414 RTRs in 9 German Testicular Cancer Study Group (GTCSG) centers. Overall, 339 of 414 RTRs were evaluable with complete perioperative data sets. The RTR database was queried for additional vascular procedures (inferior vena cava [IVC] interventions, aortic prosthesis) and correlated to International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) classification and residual tumor volume. In 40 RTRs, major vascular procedures (23 IVC resections with or without prosthesis, 11 partial IVC resections, and 6 aortic prostheses) were performed. In univariate analysis, the necessity of IVC intervention was significantly correlated with IGCCCG (14.1% intermediate/poor vs 4.8% good; p=0.0047) and residual tumor size (3.7% size risk features must initially be identified as high-risk patients for vascular procedures and therefore should be referred to specialized surgical centers with the ad hoc possibility of vascular interventions. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Item condition of the autonomic nervous system in patients with hypertension stage II low additional cardiovascular risk depending on the status of smokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Poznanskaya

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Beckground. This century is characterized by steady growth in the number of patients who have cardiac pathology combined with other factors, aggravating the disease and prognosis. High prevalence of smoking among young patients with hypertension. Research devoted to the study of influence of risk factors , including smoking, on the structural and geometric and functional changes of the heart is not enough. Aim. Explore the contribution of modifiable risk factors for smoking in a pathological process of structural and geometrical and functional restructuring infarction in hypertensive patients. Material and methods. Examined by transthoracic echocardiography 100 patients (30 smokers and 70 non-smokers with essential hypertension stage II, 53 men and 47 women. Group of patients matched for age, sex, body mass index, level of fasting glucose, value "office" SBP, DBP, PAP, mean arterial pressure, heart rate. For data analysis methods of parametric (t-test for dependent and independent variables, ANOVA ANOVA and nonparametric (Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test, Mann-Whitney U test statistics. Differences considered statistically significant at a value of p<0,05. Results. Hypertensive patients who had smoking status, revealed significantly larger left atrial diastolic by 8.1 % (p = 0.014, systolic 10.8% (p = 0.026, the prevalence of thickness PWLVs 6.1% ( p = 0.028, the thickness IVSd 11.6 % (p = 0.004 , the thickness PWLVs 10.7 % (p = 0.034 LVMI 12.2% (p = 0.034 and diastolic intramyocardial stresses 13.9 % (p = 0.025 , lengthening of the period of isometric relaxation by 33.3 % (p = 0.026 compared with those in non-smoking hypertensive patients. Conclusion. Modulatory effect of smoking on the pathological processes of cardiac remodeling in hypertensive patients manifested by an increase in systolic and diastolic dimensions of the left atrium, wall thickness and left ventricular mass, without an extension of the heart

  2. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  3. [In the case of premature live birth, is very early rupture of the membranes an additional risk factor for morbidity and mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnard, T; Vincent-Rohfritsch, A; Le Ray, C; Goffinet, F; Patkai, J; Sibiude, J

    2018-02-26

    To describe survival rate after preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) before 25 weeks of gestation and compare neonatal morbidity and mortality among those born alive with a control group of infants born at a similar gestational age without premature rupture of membranes. We conducted a retrospective single-centre study at Port-Royal maternity, from 2007 to 2015, comparing neonatal outcomes between liveborninfants exposed to PPROM prior to 25 weeks of gestation (WG) and a control group not exposed to premature rupture of the membranes. For each live-born child, the next child born after spontaneous labor without PPROM was matched for gestational age at birth, sex, and whether or not they received antenatal corticosteroid therapy. The primary endpoint was severe neonatal complications assessed by a composite endpoint including neonatal deaths, grade 3-4 HIV, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, leukomalacia and stade 3-4 retinopathies. Among 77 cases of very premature rupture of the membranes, 55 children were born alive. Among these, the average gestational age at birth was 28 WG and 1 day. The rate of severe neonatal complications did not differ between the two groups (43.6% in the PPROM group vs. 36.4%, P=0.44) and the survival rate at discharge was also similar in the two groups (85.5% vs. 83.6%, P=0.98). In our cohort and among livebirths after 24 WG, PPROM before 25 WG was not associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality compared to children born at the same gestational age after a spontaneous labor with intact membranes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Reference centiles for the middle cerebral artery and umbilical artery pulsatility index and cerebro-placental ratio from a low-risk population - a Generalised Additive Model for Location, Shape and Scale (GAMLSS) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flatley, Christopher; Kumar, Sailesh; Greer, Ristan M

    2018-02-06

    The primary aim of this study was to create reference ranges for the fetal Middle Cerebral artery Pulsatility Index (MCA PI), Umbilical Artery Pulsatility Index (UA PI) and the Cerebro-Placental Ratio (CPR) in a clearly defined low-risk cohort using the Generalised Additive Model for Location, Shape and Scale (GAMLSS) method. Prospectively collected cross-sectional biometry and Doppler data from low-risk women attending the Mater Mother's Hospital, Maternal and Fetal Medicine Department in Brisbane, Australia between January 2010 and April 2017 were used to derive gestation specific centiles for the MCA PI, UA PI and CPR. All ultrasound scans were performed between 18 + 0 and 41 + 6 weeks gestation with recorded data for the MCA PI and/or UA PI. The GAMLSS method was used for the calculation of gestational age-adjusted centiles. Distributions and additive terms were assessed and the final model was chosen on the basis of the Global Deviance, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwartz bayesian criterion (SBC), along with the results of the model and residual diagnostics as well as visual assessment of the centiles themselves. Over the study period 6013 women met the inclusion criteria. The MCA PI was recorded in 4473 fetuses, the UA PI in 6008 fetuses and the CPR was able to be calculated in 4464 cases. The centiles for the MCA PI used a fractional polynomial additive term and Box-Cox t (BCT) distribution. Centiles for the UA PI used a cubic spline additive term with BCT distribution and the CPR used a fractional polynomial additive term and a BCT distribution. We have created gestational centile reference ranges for the MCA PI, UA PI and CPR from a large low-risk cohort that supports their applicability and generalisability.

  5. Risk-based approach to developing a national residue sampling plan for testing under European Union regulation for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives in domestic animal production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaher, Martin; Shanahan, Conor; Butler, Francis; Evans, Rhodri; O'Sullivan, Dan; Glynn, Denise; Camon, Tim; Lawlor, Peadar; O'Keeffe, Michael

    2016-07-01

    A ranking system for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives has been developed as a tool to be applied in a risk-based approach to the residue testing programme for foods of animal origin in the Irish National Residue Control Plan (NRCP). Three characteristics of substances that may occur as residues in food are included in the developed risk ranking system: Potency, as measured by the acceptable daily intake assigned by the European Medicines Agency Committee for Medicinal Products for Veterinary Use, to each substance; Usage, as measured by the three factors of Number of Doses, use on Individual animals or for Group treatment, and Withdrawal Period; and Residue Occurrence, as measured by the number of Non-Compliant Samples in the NRCP. For both Number of Doses and Non-Compliant Samples, data for the 5-year period 2008-12 have been used. The risk ranking system for substances was developed for beef cattle, sheep and goats, pigs, chickens and dairy cattle using a scoring system applied to the various parameters described above to give an overall score based on the following equation: Potency × Usage (Number of Doses + Individual/Group Use + Withdrawal Period) × Residue Occurrence. Applying this risk ranking system, the following substances are ranked very highly: antimicrobials such as amoxicillin (for all species except pigs), marbofloxacillin (for beef cattle), oxytetracycline (for all species except chickens), sulfadiazine with trimethoprim (for pigs and chickens) and tilmicosin (for chickens); antiparasitic drugs, such as the benzimidazoles triclabendazole (for beef and dairy cattle), fenbendazole/oxfendazole (for sheep/goats and dairy cattle) and albendazole (for dairy cattle), the avermectin ivermectin (for beef cattle), and anti-fluke drugs closantel and rafoxanide (for sheep/goats); the anticoccidials monensin, narasin, nicarbazin and toltrazuril (for chickens). The risk ranking system described is a relatively simple system

  6. Protocol for ADDITION-PRO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Nanna Borup; Hansen, Anne-Louise Smidt; Jensen, Troels M

    2012-01-01

    disease and microvascular diabetic complications. We also require a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie and drive early changes in cardiometabolic physiology. The ADDITION-PRO study was designed to address these issues among individuals at different levels of diabetes risk recruited from...... Danish primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: ADDITION-PRO is a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of individuals at high risk for diabetes. 16,136 eligible individuals were identified at high risk following participation in a stepwise screening programme in Danish general practice between 2001 and 2006....... All individuals with impaired glucose regulation at screening, those who developed diabetes following screening, and a random sub-sample of those at lower levels of diabetes risk were invited to attend a follow-up health assessment in 2009-2011 (n=4,188), of whom 2,082 (50%) attended. The health...

  7. A systematic review of the effectiveness of strategies for reducing fracture risk in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis with additional data on long-term risk of fracture and cost of disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, J; Ashcroft, D; O'Neill, T; Elliott, R; Adams, J; Roberts, C; Rooney, M; Symmons, D

    2008-03-01

    from adults who have JIA, but studies indicate that low BMD persists into adulthood, although adults in remission from JIA may attain the same BMD as healthy adults. From the available data, any predictors of low BMD and fractures in children and adults with JIA remain uncertain. No studies were found that discussed the costs of treating children with JIA and low BMD and/or fragility fractures. In CAPS, 297 of 457 children with JIA attended a 12-month follow-up visit. The mean annual total cost per child in the first year after diagnosis was 1649 pounds (standard deviation 1093 pounds, range 401-6967 pounds). The highest cost component was appointments with paediatric rheumatologists. The study is continuing to accrue and follow up patients and further analyses will be undertaken as the study progresses. BMD, adjusted for size, should be assessed as the primary outcome in studies of bone health in children with JIA. Quantitative computed tomography could be used where equipment is available as it offers the advantage of measuring volumetric density. Bisphosphonates are a promising treatment for osteoporosis in children with JIA, but the quality of the current evidence is poor. The accurate assessment of outcome is crucial. There are still uncertainties about the use of bisphosphonates in children, including whether the positive effects of treatment continue over time, the length of treatment and the maximal bone mass gain that can be achieved. Adults with JIA may have persistent low BMD compared with an otherwise healthy population together with an increased risk of fracture. There are no studies evaluating the costs of treating children with JIA and low BMD and/or fragility fractures. There are few data evaluating the costs of treating JIA in general. In the first 12 months after diagnosis, children with all JIA disease subtypes consume large, but highly variable, quantities of health service resources, the largest component being the consultant rheumatology

  8. An additional bolus of rapid-acting insulin to normalise postprandial cardiovascular risk factors following a high-carbohydrate high-fat meal in patients with type 1 diabetes: A randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Matthew D; Walker, Mark; Ajjan, Ramzi A; Birch, Karen M; Gonzalez, Javier T; West, Daniel J

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate an additional rapid-acting insulin bolus on postprandial lipaemia, inflammation and pro-coagulation following high-carbohydrate high-fat feeding in people with type 1 diabetes. A total of 10 males with type 1 diabetes [HbA 1c 52.5 ± 5.9 mmol/mol (7.0% ± 0.5%)] underwent three conditions: (1) a low-fat (LF) meal with normal bolus insulin, (2), a high-fat (HF) meal with normal bolus insulin and (3) a high-fat meal with normal bolus insulin with an additional 30% insulin bolus administered 3-h post-meal (HFA). Meals had identical carbohydrate and protein content and bolus insulin dose determined by carbohydrate-counting. Blood was sampled periodically for 6-h post-meal and analysed for triglyceride, non-esterified-fatty acids, apolipoprotein B48, glucagon, tumour necrosis factor alpha, fibrinogen, human tissue factor activity and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1. Continuous glucose monitoring captured interstitial glucose responses. Triglyceride concentrations following LF remained similar to baseline, whereas triglyceride levels following HF were significantly greater throughout the 6-h observation period. The additional insulin bolus (HFA) normalised triglyceride similarly to low fat 3-6 h following the meal. HF was associated with late postprandial elevations in tumour necrosis factor alpha, whereas LF and HFA was not. Fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and tissue factor pathway levels were similar between conditions. Additional bolus insulin 3 h following a high-carbohydrate high-fat meal prevents late rises in postprandial triglycerides and tumour necrosis factor alpha, thus improving cardiovascular risk profile.

  9. Additional measures do not improve the diagnostic accuracy of the Hospital Admission Risk Profile for detecting downstream quality of life in community-dwelling older people presenting to a hospital emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimmer, K; Milanese, S; Beaton, K; Atlas, A

    2014-01-01

    The Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP) instrument is commonly used to assess risk of functional decline when older people are admitted to hospital. HARP has moderate diagnostic accuracy (65%) for downstream decreased scores in activities of daily living. This paper reports the diagnostic accuracy of HARP for downstream quality of life. It also tests whether adding other measures to HARP improves its diagnostic accuracy. One hundred and forty-eight independent community dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older were recruited in the emergency department of one large Australian hospital with a medical problem for which they were discharged without a hospital ward admission. Data, including age, sex, primary language, highest level of education, postcode, living status, requiring care for daily activities, using a gait aid, receiving formal community supports, instrumental activities of daily living in the last week, hospitalization and falls in the last 12 months, and mental state were collected at recruitment. HARP scores were derived from a formula that summed scores assigned to age, activities of daily living, and mental state categories. Physical and mental component scores of a quality of life measure were captured by telephone interview at 1 and 3 months after recruitment. HARP scores are moderately accurate at predicting downstream decline in physical quality of life, but did not predict downstream decline in mental quality of life. The addition of other variables to HARP did not improve its diagnostic accuracy for either measure of quality of life. HARP is a poor predictor of quality of life.

  10. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events; O drone como fator adicional de risco decorrente de condicoes nao previstas na seguranca radiologica em grandes eventos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-07-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  11. Low-grade inflammation is a risk factor for clinical stroke events in addition to silent cerebral infarcts in Japanese older hypertensives: the Jichi Medical School ABPM Study, wave 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Joji; Tamura, Yurie; Hoshide, Satoshi; Eguchi, Kazuo; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

    2007-03-01

    risk factor for clinical stroke events in addition to silent cerebral infarcts in Japanese older hypertensives, indicating that the risk for clinical stroke events increases with preexisting hypertensive target organ damage in the brain and additionally with ongoing low-grade inflammation.

  12. Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) as Predicting Marker for Clinical Outcome and Evaluation of Early Toxicity Rate after High-Dose Rate Brachytherapy (HDR-BT) in Combination with Additional External Beam Radiation Therapy (EBRT) for High Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecke, Thorsten H; Huang-Tiel, Hui-Juan; Golka, Klaus; Selinski, Silvia; Geis, Berit Christine; Koswig, Stephan; Bathe, Katrin; Hallmann, Steffen; Gerullis, Holger

    2016-11-10

    High-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) is a common treatment option for locally advanced prostate cancer (PCa). Seventy-nine male patients (median age 71 years, range 50 to 79) with high-risk PCa underwent HDR-BT following EBRT between December 2009 and January 2016 with a median follow-up of 21 months. HDR-BT was administered in two treatment sessions (one week interval) with 9 Gy per fraction using a planning system and the Ir192 treatment unit GammaMed Plus iX. EBRT was performed with CT-based 3D-conformal treatment planning with a total dose administration of 50.4 Gy with 1.8 Gy per fraction and five fractions per week. Follow-up for all patients was organized one, three, and five years after radiation therapy to evaluate early and late toxicity side effects, metastases, local recurrence, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value measured in ng/mL. The evaluated data included age, PSA at time of diagnosis, PSA density, BMI (body mass index), Gleason score, D'Amico risk classification for PCa, digital rectal examination (DRE), PSA value after one/three/five year(s) follow-up (FU), time of follow-up, TNM classification, prostate volume, and early toxicity rates. Early toxicity rates were 8.86% for gastrointestinal, and 6.33% for genitourinary side effects. Of all treated patients, 84.81% had no side effects. All reported complications in early toxicity were grade 1. PSA density at time of diagnosis ( p = 0.009), PSA on date of first HDR-BT ( p = 0.033), and PSA on date of first follow-up after one year ( p = 0.025) have statistical significance on a higher risk to get a local recurrence during follow-up. HDR-BT in combination with additional EBRT in the presented design for high-risk PCa results in high biochemical control rates with minimal side-effects. PSA is a negative predictive biomarker for local recurrence during follow-up. A longer follow-up is needed to assess long-term outcome and toxicities.

  13. Additive interaction in survival analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Lange, Theis; Andersen, Ingelise

    2012-01-01

    It is a widely held belief in public health and clinical decision-making that interventions or preventive strategies should be aimed at patients or population subgroups where most cases could potentially be prevented. To identify such subgroups, deviation from additivity of absolute effects...... an empirical example of interaction between education and smoking on risk of lung cancer. We argue that deviations from additivity of effects are important for public health interventions and clinical decision-making, and such estimations should be encouraged in prospective studies on health. A detailed...... is the relevant measure of interest. Multiplicative survival models, such as the Cox proportional hazards model, are often used to estimate the association between exposure and risk of disease in prospective studies. In Cox models, deviations from additivity have usually been assessed by surrogate measures...

  14. Additional measures do not improve the diagnostic accuracy of the Hospital Admission Risk Profile for detecting downstream quality of life in community-dwelling older people presenting to a hospital emergency department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grimmer K

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available K Grimmer, S Milanese, K Beaton, A AtlasInternational Centre for Allied Health Evidence, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaIntroduction: The Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP instrument is commonly used to assess risk of functional decline when older people are admitted to hospital. HARP has moderate diagnostic accuracy (65% for downstream decreased scores in activities of daily living. This paper reports the diagnostic accuracy of HARP for downstream quality of life. It also tests whether adding other measures to HARP improves its diagnostic accuracy.Methods: One hundred and forty-eight independent community dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older were recruited in the emergency department of one large Australian hospital with a medical problem for which they were discharged without a hospital ward admission. Data, including age, sex, primary language, highest level of education, postcode, living status, requiring care for daily activities, using a gait aid, receiving formal community supports, instrumental activities of daily living in the last week, hospitalization and falls in the last 12 months, and mental state were collected at recruitment. HARP scores were derived from a formula that summed scores assigned to age, activities of daily living, and mental state categories. Physical and mental component scores of a quality of life measure were captured by telephone interview at 1 and 3 months after recruitment.Results: HARP scores are moderately accurate at predicting downstream decline in physical quality of life, but did not predict downstream decline in mental quality of life. The addition of other variables to HARP did not improve its diagnostic accuracy for either measure of quality of life.Conclusion: HARP is a poor predictor of quality of life.Keywords: functional decline, HARP, quality of life, older people

  15. Additional Risk Minimisation Measures for Medicinal Products in the European Union: A Review of the Implementation and Effectiveness of Measures in the United Kingdom by One Marketing Authorisation Holder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agyemang, Elaine; Bailey, Lorna; Talbot, John

    2017-01-01

    Additional risk minimisation measures (aRMMs) for medicinal products are necessary to address specific important safety issues which may not be practically achieved through routine risk management measures alone. The implementation and determination of effectiveness for aRMMs can be a challenge as it involves multiple stakeholders. It is therefore important to have concise objectives to avoid undue burden on patients, healthcare professionals and the healthcare system. The aim of this study was to examine how aRMMs are implemented and how effectiveness is assessed in the European Union (EU) using practical examples from Roche Products Limited in the United Kingdom (UK) (referred to as the 'Company'). Three centrally authorised products were selected from the Company's portfolio, each of which had aRMMs to address important safety concerns; specifically, teratogenicity, medication error and infections. The implementation of EU aRMMs, effectiveness checks and specific UK activities were analysed. Hard copy folders and electronic sites for Company aRMMs were used to assess process indicators. Periodic benefit-risk evaluation reports for specified time intervals and the Company safety database was used in checking safety outcomes for the selected products. For each product, the effectiveness of aRMMs was analysed based on specific process indicators and the subsequent safety outcomes. Literature searches were performed on scientific databases for the purposes of the broader study. The main process indicators in measuring effectiveness of Company aRMMs were distribution metrics for educational materials, assessment of awareness and clinical actions among healthcare professionals (HCPs). Case reports of pregnancy, medication errors and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) were the outcome indicators for Erivedge ® ▼, Kadcyla ® ▼ and MabThera ® (the latter specifically in autoimmune indications: rheumatoid arthritis, granulomatosis with polyangiitis and

  16. Food additives: an ethical evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mepham, Ben

    2011-01-01

    Food additives are an integral part of the modern food system, but opinion polls showing most Europeans have worries about them imply an urgent need for ethical analysis of their use. The existing literature on food ethics, safety assessment and animal testing. Food additives provide certain advantages in terms of many people's lifestyles. There are disagreements about the appropriate application of the precautionary principle and of the value and ethical validity of animal tests in assessing human safety. Most consumers have a poor understanding of the relative benefits and risks of additives, but concerns over food safety and animal testing remain high. Examining the impacts of food additives on consumer sovereignty, consumer health and on animals used in safety testing should allow a more informed debate about their appropriate uses.

  17. DRD2 and PPP1R1B (DARPP-32 polymorphisms independently confer increased risk for autism spectrum disorders and additively predict affected status in male-only affected sib-pair families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hettinger Joe A

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The neurotransmitter dopamine (DA modulates executive functions, learning, and emotional processing, all of which are impaired in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs. Our previous findings suggest a role for dopamine-related genes in families with only affected males. Methods We examined two additional genes which affect DA function, the DRD2 and PPP1R1B (DARPP-32 genes, in a cohort of 112 male-only affected sib-pair families. Selected polymorphisms spanning these genes were genotyped and both family-based and population-based tests were carried out for association analysis. General discriminant analysis was used to examine the gene-gene interactions in predicting autism susceptibility. Results There was a significantly increased frequency of the DRD2 rs1800498TT genotype (P = 0.007 in affected males compared to the comparison group, apparently due to over-transmission of the T allele (P = 0.0003. The frequency of the PPP1R1B rs1495099CC genotype in affected males was also higher than that in the comparison group (P = 0.002 due to preferential transmission of the C allele from parents to affected children (P = 0.0009. Alleles rs1800498T and rs1495099C were associated with more severe problems in social interaction (P = 0.0002 and P = 0.0016, respectively and communication (P = 0.0004 and P = 0.0046, and increased stereotypic behaviours (P = 0.0021 and P = 0.00072. General discriminant analysis found that the DRD2 and PPP1R1B genes additively predicted ASDs (P = 0.00011; Canonical R = 0.26 and explain ~7% of the variance in our families. All findings remained significant following corrections for multiple testing. Conclusion Our findings support a role for the DRD2 and PPP1R1B genes in conferring risk for autism in families with only affected males and show an additive effect of these genes towards prediction of affected status in our families.

  18. Additive Manufacturing Infrared Inspection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaddy, Darrell; Nettles, Mindy

    2015-01-01

    The Additive Manufacturing Infrared Inspection Task started the development of a real-time dimensional inspection technique and digital quality record for the additive manufacturing process using infrared camera imaging and processing techniques. This project will benefit additive manufacturing by providing real-time inspection of internal geometry that is not currently possible and reduce the time and cost of additive manufactured parts with automated real-time dimensional inspections which deletes post-production inspections.

  19. Additives in yoghurt production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milna Tudor

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In yoghurt production, mainly because of sensory characteristics, different types of additives are used. Each group, and also each substance from the same group has different characteristics and properties. For that reason, for improvement of yoghurt sensory characteristics apart from addition selection, the quantity of the additive is very important. The same substance added in optimal amount improves yoghurt sensory attributes, but too small or too big addition can reduce yoghurt sensory attributes. In this paper, characteristics and properties of mostly used additives in yoghurt production are described; skimmed milk powder, whey powder, concentrated whey powder, sugars and artificial sweeteners, fruits, stabilizers, casein powder, inulin and vitamins. Also the impact of each additive on sensory and physical properties of yoghurt, syneresis and viscosity, are described, depending on used amount added in yoghurt production.

  20. Food additives and preschool children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyn, Danika M; McNulty, Breige A; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Michael J

    2013-02-01

    Food additives have been used throughout history to perform specific functions in foods. A comprehensive framework of legislation is in place within Europe to control the use of additives in the food supply and ensure they pose no risk to human health. Further to this, exposure assessments are regularly carried out to monitor population intakes and verify that intakes are not above acceptable levels (acceptable daily intakes). Young children may have a higher dietary exposure to chemicals than adults due to a combination of rapid growth rates and distinct food intake patterns. For this reason, exposure assessments are particularly important in this age group. The paper will review the use of additives and exposure assessment methods and examine factors that affect dietary exposure by young children. One of the most widely investigated unfavourable health effects associated with food additive intake in preschool-aged children are suggested adverse behavioural effects. Research that has examined this relationship has reported a variety of responses, with many noting an increase in hyperactivity as reported by parents but not when assessed using objective examiners. This review has examined the experimental approaches used in such studies and suggests that efforts are needed to standardise objective methods of measuring behaviour in preschool children. Further to this, a more holistic approach to examining food additive intakes by preschool children is advisable, where overall exposure is considered rather than focusing solely on behavioural effects and possibly examining intakes of food additives other than food colours.

  1. An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  2. Polylactides in additive biomanufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poh, Patrina S P; Chhaya, Mohit P; Wunner, Felix M; De-Juan-Pardo, Elena M; Schilling, Arndt F; Schantz, Jan-Thorsten; van Griensven, Martijn; Hutmacher, Dietmar W

    2016-12-15

    New advanced manufacturing technologies under the alias of additive biomanufacturing allow the design and fabrication of a range of products from pre-operative models, cutting guides and medical devices to scaffolds. The process of printing in 3 dimensions of cells, extracellular matrix (ECM) and biomaterials (bioinks, powders, etc.) to generate in vitro and/or in vivo tissue analogue structures has been termed bioprinting. To further advance in additive biomanufacturing, there are many aspects that we can learn from the wider additive manufacturing (AM) industry, which have progressed tremendously since its introduction into the manufacturing sector. First, this review gives an overview of additive manufacturing and both industry and academia efforts in addressing specific challenges in the AM technologies to drive toward AM-enabled industrial revolution. After which, considerations of poly(lactides) as a biomaterial in additive biomanufacturing are discussed. Challenges in wider additive biomanufacturing field are discussed in terms of (a) biomaterials; (b) computer-aided design, engineering and manufacturing; (c) AM and additive biomanufacturing printers hardware; and (d) system integration. Finally, the outlook for additive biomanufacturing was discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Additive and polynomial representations

    CERN Document Server

    Krantz, David H; Suppes, Patrick

    1971-01-01

    Additive and Polynomial Representations deals with major representation theorems in which the qualitative structure is reflected as some polynomial function of one or more numerical functions defined on the basic entities. Examples are additive expressions of a single measure (such as the probability of disjoint events being the sum of their probabilities), and additive expressions of two measures (such as the logarithm of momentum being the sum of log mass and log velocity terms). The book describes the three basic procedures of fundamental measurement as the mathematical pivot, as the utiliz

  4. Food Additives and Hyperkinesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wender, Ester H.

    1977-01-01

    The hypothesis that food additives are causally associated with hyperkinesis and learning disabilities in children is reviewed, and available data are summarized. Available from: American Medical Association 535 North Dearborn Street Chicago, Illinois 60610. (JG)

  5. Groups – Additive Notation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coghetto Roland

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We translate the articles covering group theory already available in the Mizar Mathematical Library from multiplicative into additive notation. We adapt the works of Wojciech A. Trybulec [41, 42, 43] and Artur Korniłowicz [25].

  6. Groups – Additive Notation

    OpenAIRE

    Coghetto Roland

    2015-01-01

    We translate the articles covering group theory already available in the Mizar Mathematical Library from multiplicative into additive notation. We adapt the works of Wojciech A. Trybulec [41, 42, 43] and Artur Korniłowicz [25].

  7. Alternative additives; Alternative additiver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-08-15

    In this project a number of industrial and agricultural waste products have been characterised and evaluated in terms of alkali-getter performance. The intended use is for biomass-fired power stations aiming at reducing corrosion or slagging related problems. The following products have been obtained, characterised and evaluated: 1) Brewery draff 2) Danish de-gassed manure 3) Paper sludge 4) Moulding sand 5) Spent bleaching earth 6) Anorthosite 7) Sand 8) Clay-sludge. Most of the above alternative additive candidates are deemed unsuitable due to insufficient chemical effect and/or expensive requirements for pre-treatment (such as drying and transportation). 3 products were selected for full-scale testing: de-gassed manure, spent bleaching earth and clay slugde. The full scale tests were undertaken at the biomass-fired power stations in Koege, Slagelse and Ensted. Spent bleaching earth (SBE) and clay sludge were the only tested additive candidates that had a proven ability to react with KCl, to thereby reduce Cl-concentrations in deposits, and reduce the deposit flux to superheater tubes. Their performance was shown to nearly as good as commercial additives. De-gassed manure, however, did not evaluate positively due to inhibiting effects of Ca in the manure. Furthermore, de-gassed manure has a high concentration of heavy metals, which imposes a financial burden with regard to proper disposal of the ash by-products. Clay-sludge is a wet clay slurring, and drying and transportation of this product entails substantial costs. Spent bleaching does not require much pre-treatment and is therefore the most promising alternative additive. On the other hand, bleaching earth contains residual plant oil which means that a range of legislation relating to waste combustion comes into play. Not least a waste combustion fee of 330 DKK/tonne. For all alternative (and commercial) additives disposal costs of the increase ash by-products represents a significant cost. This is

  8. A semiparametric negative binomial generalized linear model for modeling over-dispersed count data with a heavy tail: Characteristics and applications to crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirazi, Mohammadali; Lord, Dominique; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

    2016-06-01

    Crash data can often be characterized by over-dispersion, heavy (long) tail and many observations with the value zero. Over the last few years, a small number of researchers have started developing and applying novel and innovative multi-parameter models to analyze such data. These multi-parameter models have been proposed for overcoming the limitations of the traditional negative binomial (NB) model, which cannot handle this kind of data efficiently. The research documented in this paper continues the work related to multi-parameter models. The objective of this paper is to document the development and application of a flexible NB generalized linear model with randomly distributed mixed effects characterized by the Dirichlet process (NB-DP) to model crash data. The objective of the study was accomplished using two datasets. The new model was compared to the NB and the recently introduced model based on the mixture of the NB and Lindley (NB-L) distributions. Overall, the research study shows that the NB-DP model offers a better performance than the NB model once data are over-dispersed and have a heavy tail. The NB-DP performed better than the NB-L when the dataset has a heavy tail, but a smaller percentage of zeros. However, both models performed similarly when the dataset contained a large amount of zeros. In addition to a greater flexibility, the NB-DP provides a clustering by-product that allows the safety analyst to better understand the characteristics of the data, such as the identification of outliers and sources of dispersion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Model Additional Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rockwood, Laura

    2001-01-01

    Since the end of the cold war a series of events has changed the circumstances and requirements of the safeguards system. The discovery of a clandestine nuclear weapons program in Iraq, the continuing difficulty in verifying the initial report of Democratic People's Republic of Korea upon entry into force of their safeguards agreement, and the decision of the South African Government to give up its nuclear weapons program and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons have all played a role in an ambitious effort by IAEA Member States and the Secretariat to strengthen the safeguards system. A major milestone in this effort was reached in May 1997 when the IAEA Board of Governors approved a Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements. The Model Additional Protocol was negotiated over a period of less than a year by an open-ended committee of the Board involving some 70 Member States and two regional inspectorates. The IAEA is now in the process of negotiating additional protocols, State by State, and implementing them. These additional protocols will provide the IAEA with rights of access to information about all activities related to the use of nuclear material in States with comprehensive safeguards agreements and greatly expanded physical access for IAEA inspectors to confirm or verify this information. In conjunction with this, the IAEA is working on the integration of these measures with those provided for in comprehensive safeguards agreements, with a view to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency, within available resources, the implementation of safeguards. Details concerning the Model Additional Protocol are given. (author)

  10. Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus Umlauf

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

  11. Additive manufacturing of metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, Dirk; Seyda, Vanessa; Wycisk, Eric; Emmelmann, Claus

    2016-01-01

    Additive Manufacturing (AM), the layer-by layer build-up of parts, has lately become an option for serial production. Today, several metallic materials including the important engineering materials steel, aluminium and titanium may be processed to full dense parts with outstanding properties. In this context, the present overview article describes the complex relationship between AM processes, microstructure and resulting properties for metals. It explains the fundamentals of Laser Beam Melting, Electron Beam Melting and Laser Metal Deposition, and introduces the commercially available materials for the different processes. Thereafter, typical microstructures for additively manufactured steel, aluminium and titanium are presented. Special attention is paid to AM specific grain structures, resulting from the complex thermal cycle and high cooling rates. The properties evolving as a consequence of the microstructure are elaborated under static and dynamic loading. According to these properties, typical applications are presented for the materials and methods for conclusion.

  12. Additive manufactured serialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobbitt, III, John T.

    2017-04-18

    Methods for forming an identifying mark in a structure are described. The method is used in conjunction with an additive manufacturing method and includes the alteration of a process parameter during the manufacturing process. The method can form in a unique identifying mark within or on the surface of a structure that is virtually impossible to be replicated. Methods can provide a high level of confidence that the identifying mark will remain unaltered on the formed structure.

  13. BWR zinc addition Sourcebook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Susan E.; Giannelli, Joseph F.; Jarvis, Alfred J.

    2014-01-01

    Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) have been injecting zinc into the primary coolant via the reactor feedwater system for over 25 years for the purpose of controlling primary system radiation fields. The BWR zinc injection process has evolved since the initial application at the Hope Creek Nuclear Station in 1986. Key transitions were from the original natural zinc oxide (NZO) to depleted zinc oxide (DZO), and from active zinc injection of a powdered zinc oxide slurry (pumped systems) to passive injection systems (zinc pellet beds). Zinc addition has continued through various chemistry regimes changes, from normal water chemistry (NWC) to hydrogen water chemistry (HWC) and HWC with noble metals (NobleChem™) for mitigation of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) of reactor internals and primary system piping. While past reports published by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) document specific industry experience related to these topics, the Zinc Sourcebook was prepared to consolidate all of the experience gained over the past 25 years. The Zinc Sourcebook will benefit experienced BWR Chemistry, Operations, Radiation Protection and Engineering personnel as well as new people entering the nuclear power industry. While all North American BWRs implement feedwater zinc injection, a number of other BWRs do not inject zinc. This Sourcebook will also be a valuable resource to plants considering the benefits of zinc addition process implementation, and to gain insights on industry experience related to zinc process control and best practices. This paper presents some of the highlights from the Sourcebook. (author)

  14. Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization (MAWS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    In the Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization(MAWS) concept, actual waste streams are utilized as additive resources for vitrification, which may contain the basic components (glass formers and fluxes) for making a suitable glass or glassy slag. If too much glass former is present, then the melt viscosity or temperature will be too high for processing; while if there is too much flux, then the durability may suffer. Therefore, there are optimum combinations of these two important classes of constituents depending on the criteria required. The challenge is to combine these resources in such a way that minimizes the use of non-waste additives yet yields a processable and durable final waste form for disposal. The benefit to this approach is that the volume of the final waste form is minimized (waste loading maximized) since little or no additives are used and vitrification itself results in volume reduction through evaporation of water, combustion of organics, and compaction of the solids into a non-porous glass. This implies a significant reduction in disposal costs due to volume reduction alone, and minimizes future risks/costs due to the long term durability and leach resistance of glass. This is accomplished by using integrated systems that are both cost-effective and produce an environmentally sound waste form for disposal. individual component technologies may include: vitrification; thermal destruction; soil washing; gas scrubbing/filtration; and, ion-exchange wastewater treatment. The particular combination of technologies will depend on the waste streams to be treated. At the heart of MAWS is vitrification technology, which incorporates all primary and secondary waste streams into a final, long-term, stabilized glass wasteform. The integrated technology approach, and view of waste streams as resources, is innovative yet practical to cost effectively treat a broad range of DOE mixed and low-level wastes

  15. Teardrop bladder: additional considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wechsler, R.J.; Brennan, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    Nine cases of teardrop bladder (TDB) seen at excretory urography are presented. In some of these patients, the iliopsoas muscles were at the upper limit of normal in size, and additional evaluation of the perivesical structures with computed tomography (CT) was necessary. CT demonstrated only hypertrophied muscles with or without perivesical fat. The psoas muscles and pelvic width were measured in 8 patients and compared with the measurements of a control group of males without TDB. Patients with TDB had large iliopsoas muscles and narrow pelves compared with the control group. The psoas muscle width/pelvic width ratio was significantly greater (p < 0.0005) in patients with TDB than in the control group, with values of 1.04 + 0.05 and 0.82 + 0.09, respectively. It is concluded that TDB is not an uncommon normal variant in black males. Both iliopsoas muscle hypertrophy and a narrow pelvis are factors that predispose a patient to TDB

  16. Sewage sludge additive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalvinskas, J. J.; Mueller, W. A.; Ingham, J. D. (Inventor)

    1980-01-01

    The additive is for a raw sewage treatment process of the type where settling tanks are used for the purpose of permitting the suspended matter in the raw sewage to be settled as well as to permit adsorption of the dissolved contaminants in the water of the sewage. The sludge, which settles down to the bottom of the settling tank is extracted, pyrolyzed and activated to form activated carbon and ash which is mixed with the sewage prior to its introduction into the settling tank. The sludge does not provide all of the activated carbon and ash required for adequate treatment of the raw sewage. It is necessary to add carbon to the process and instead of expensive commercial carbon, coal is used to provide the carbon supplement.

  17. Smoking, HIV, and risk of pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westreich, Daniel; Cates, Jordan; Cohen, Mardge; Weber, Kathleen M; Seidman, Dominika; Cropsey, Karen; Wright, Rodney; Milam, Joel; Young, Mary A; Mehta, C Christina; Gustafson, Deborah R; Golub, Elizabeth T; Fischl, Margaret A; Adimora, Adaora A

    2017-02-20

    Cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases risks of poor pregnancy outcomes including miscarriage and stillbirth (pregnancy loss), but the effect of smoking on pregnancy loss among HIV-infected women has not been explored. Here, investigated the impact of smoking on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women, and estimated the potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive women. We analyzed pregnancy outcomes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 1994 and 2014. We estimated effects of current smoking at or immediately before pregnancy on pregnancy loss; we controlled for confounding using regression approaches, and estimated potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions using a semiparametric g-formula approach. Analysis examined 1033 pregnancies among 659 women. The effect of smoking on pregnancy loss differed dramatically by HIV status: adjusted for confounding, the risk difference comparing current smokers to current nonsmokers was 19.2% (95% confidence limit 10.9-27.5%) in HIV-positive women and 9.7% (95% confidence limit 0.0-19.4%) in HIV-negative women. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. We estimated that we would need to offer a realistic smoking cessation intervention to 36 women to prevent one pregnancy loss. Smoking is a highly prevalent exposure with important consequences for pregnancy in HIV-positive pregnant women in the United States, even in the presence of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy. This evidence supports greater efforts to promote smoking cessation interventions among HIV-positive women, especially those who desire to become pregnant.

  18. Neural Networks as Semiparametric Option Pricing Tool

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Baruníková, M.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 66-83 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA402/09/0732 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : option valuation * neural network * S&P 500 index options Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/barunik-0367688.pdf

  19. A Semiparametric Model for Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    treeline ) in the presence of natural background clutter (e.g., trees, dirt roads, grasses). Each target consists of about 7 × 4 pixels, and each pixel...vehicles near the treeline in Cube 1 (Figure 1) constitutes the target set, but, since anomaly detectors are not designed to detect a particular target

  20. Bootstrapping Kernel-Based Semiparametric Estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattaneo, Matias D.; Jansson, Michael

    by accommodating a non-negligible bias. A noteworthy feature of the assumptions under which the result is obtained is that reliance on a commonly employed stochastic equicontinuity condition is avoided. The second main result shows that the bootstrap provides an automatic method of correcting for the bias even...... when it is non-negligible....

  1. Semiparametric score level fusion: Gaussian copula approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanyo, N.; Klaassen, C.A.J.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

    2015-01-01

    Score level fusion is an appealing method for combining multi-algorithms, multi- representations, and multi-modality biometrics due to its simplicity. Often, scores are assumed to be independent, but even for dependent scores, accord- ing to the Neyman-Pearson lemma, the likelihood ratio is the

  2. Semiparametric mixtures in case-controlstudies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murphy, S.A.; van der Vaart, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    We consider likelihood based inference in a class of logistic models for case-control studies with a partially observed covariate. The likelihood is a combination of a nonparametric mixture, a parametric likelihood, and an empirical likelihood. We prove the asymptotic normality of the maximum

  3. Semiparametric Copula Models for Biometric Score Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caselli, M.

    2016-01-01

    In biometric recognition systems, biometric samples (images of faces, finger- prints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and classifiers (matchers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If two samples of the same person are compared, a genuine score is

  4. The safety of addition of nitrous oxide to general anaesthesia in at-risk patients having major non-cardiac surgery (ENIGMA-II): a randomised, single-blind trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myles, Paul S; Leslie, Kate; Chan, Matthew T V; Forbes, Andrew; Peyton, Philip J; Paech, Michael J; Beattie, W Scott; Sessler, Daniel I; Devereaux, P J; Silbert, Brendan; Schricker, Thomas; Wallace, Sophie

    2014-10-18

    Nitrous oxide is commonly used in general anaesthesia but concerns exist that it might increase perioperative cardiovascular risk. We aimed to gather evidence to establish whether nitrous oxide affects perioperative cardiovascular risk. We did an international, randomised, assessor-blinded trial in patients aged at least 45 years with known or suspected coronary artery disease having major non-cardiac surgery. Patients were randomly assigned via automated telephone service, stratified by site, to receive a general anaesthetic with or without nitrous oxide. Attending anaesthetists were aware of patients' group assignments, but patients and assessors were not. The primary outcome measure was a composite of death and cardiovascular complications (non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, pulmonary embolism, or cardiac arrest) within 30 days of surgery. Our modified intention-to-treat population included all patients randomly assigned to groups and undergoing induction of general anaesthesia for surgery. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00430989. Of 10,102 eligible patients, we enrolled 7112 patients between May 30, 2008, and Sept 28, 2013. 3543 were assigned to receive nitrous oxide and 3569 were assigned not to receive nitrous oxide. 3483 patients receiving nitrous oxide and 3509 not receiving nitrous oxide were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary outcome occurred in 283 (8%) patients receiving nitrous oxide and in 296 (8%) patients not receiving nitrous oxide (relative risk 0·96, 95% CI 0·83–1·12; p=0·64). Surgical site infection occurred in 321 (9%) patients assigned to nitrous oxide, and in 311 (9%) patients in the no-nitrous oxide group (p=0·61), and severe nausea and vomiting occurred in 506 patients (15%) assigned to nitrous oxide and 378 patients (11%) not assigned to nitrous oxide (pnitrous oxide use in major non-cardiac surgery. Nitrous oxide did not increase the risk of death and cardiovascular complications or

  5. Additive lattice kirigami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Toen; Sussman, Daniel M; Tanis, Michael; Kamien, Randall D

    2016-09-01

    Kirigami uses bending, folding, cutting, and pasting to create complex three-dimensional (3D) structures from a flat sheet. In the case of lattice kirigami, this cutting and rejoining introduces defects into an underlying 2D lattice in the form of points of nonzero Gaussian curvature. A set of simple rules was previously used to generate a wide variety of stepped structures; we now pare back these rules to their minimum. This allows us to describe a set of techniques that unify a wide variety of cut-and-paste actions under the rubric of lattice kirigami, including adding new material and rejoining material across arbitrary cuts in the sheet. We also explore the use of more complex lattices and the different structures that consequently arise. Regardless of the choice of lattice, creating complex structures may require multiple overlapping kirigami cuts, where subsequent cuts are not performed on a locally flat lattice. Our additive kirigami method describes such cuts, providing a simple methodology and a set of techniques to build a huge variety of complex 3D shapes.

  6. Additive Manufactured Superconducting Cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Eric; Rosen, Yaniv; Woolleet, Nathan; Materise, Nicholas; Voisin, Thomas; Wang, Morris; Mireles, Jorge; Carosi, Gianpaolo; Dubois, Jonathan

    Superconducting radio frequency cavities provide an ultra-low dissipative environment, which has enabled fundamental investigations in quantum mechanics, materials properties, and the search for new particles in and beyond the standard model. However, resonator designs are constrained by limitations in conventional machining techniques. For example, current through a seam is a limiting factor in performance for many waveguide cavities. Development of highly reproducible methods for metallic parts through additive manufacturing, referred to colloquially as 3D printing\\x9D, opens the possibility for novel cavity designs which cannot be implemented through conventional methods. We present preliminary investigations of superconducting cavities made through a selective laser melting process, which compacts a granular powder via a high-power laser according to a digitally defined geometry. Initial work suggests that assuming a loss model and numerically optimizing a geometry to minimize dissipation results in modest improvements in device performance. Furthermore, a subset of titanium alloys, particularly, a titanium, aluminum, vanadium alloy (Ti - 6Al - 4V) exhibits properties indicative of a high kinetic inductance material. This work is supported by LDRD 16-SI-004.

  7. Cardiac autonomic dysfunction is associated with high-risk albumin-to-creatinine ratio in young adolescents with type 1 diabetes in AdDIT (adolescent type 1 diabetes cardio-renal interventional trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yoon Hi; Craig, Maria E; Davis, Elizabeth A; Cotterill, Andrew M; Couper, Jennifer J; Cameron, Fergus J; Benitez-Aguirre, Paul Z; Dalton, R Neil; Dunger, David B; Jones, Timothy W; Donaghue, Kim C

    2015-04-01

    This study examined the association between cardiac autonomic dysfunction and high albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Adolescents recruited as part of a multicenter screening study (n = 445, 49% female, aged 10-17 years, mean duration 6.9 years; mean HbA1c 8.4%, 68 mmol/mol) underwent a 10-min continuous electrocardiogram recording for heart rate variability analysis. Time-domain heart rate variability measures included baseline heart rate, SD of the R-R interval (SDNN), and root mean squared difference of successive R-R intervals (RMSSD). Spectral analysis included sympathetic (low-frequency) and parasympathetic (high-frequency) components. Standardized ACR were calculated from six early morning urine collections using an established algorithm, reflecting age, sex, and duration, and stratified into ACR tertiles, where the upper tertile reflects higher nephropathy risk. The upper-tertile ACR group had a faster heart rate (76 vs. 73 bpm; P < 0.01) and less heart rate variability (SDNN 68 vs. 76 ms, P = 0.02; RMSSD 63 vs. 71 ms, P = 0.04). HbA1c was 8.5% (69 mmol/mmol) in the upper tertile vs. 8.3% (67 mmol/mol) in the lower tertiles (P = 0.07). In multivariable analysis, upper-tertile ACR was associated with faster heart rate (β = 2.5, 95% CI 0.2-4.8, P = 0.03) and lower RMSSD (β = -9.5, 95% CI -18.2 to -0.8, P = 0.03), independent of age and HbA1c. Adolescents at potentially higher risk for nephropathy show an adverse cardiac autonomic profile, indicating sympathetic overdrive, compared with the lower-risk group. Longitudinal follow-up of this cohort will further characterize the relationship between autonomic and renal dysfunction and the effect of interventions in this population. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  8. Finding phosphorus containing additives in manufactured foods

    OpenAIRE

    Lloyd, Lyn; Gillanders, Lyn

    2012-01-01

    Dietary phosphorous (P) intake is associated with an increased serum phosphate level which is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and increased mortality for people with chronic kidney disease. Dietary restriction of P is an important nutrition intervention as about 50% of daily intake of P is from P–containing food additives. Educating patients on P additives can effectively reduce serum P values over standard care. Avoidance can be achieved by reading the ingredient list to check for o...

  9. THE ROLE OF VALUE AT RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ASSET AND LIABILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petria Nicolae

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available ALM is the management of risk at enterprise level, the models used in ALM can be static or dynamic: single period-static models, multiple period static model, single period stochastic model, multi period stochastic model. While single period-static don't incorporate the dynamic of the economical changes the multiple period-static models are an extension of the single period-static model, the most common used are multi-period stochastic which model the evolution of financial series in time and the assets and liabilities using different types of probability distributions (Student, GED. Highly correlated with ALM is the Value at Risk which can be used as and function to be minimized in ALM models. In the Value at Risk methodology the estimation models are classified as: parametric, nonparametric, semi-parametric; we present the parametric models (GARCH models used in Value at Risk and the connections that can be established between ALM models and Value at Risk. We present the Conditional Value-at-risk and offer and example on how to calculate CVaR .

  10. Additional safety assessment of ITER - Addition safety investigation of the INB ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This assessment aims at re-assessing safety margins in the light of events which occurred in Fukushima Daiichi, i.e. extreme natural events challenging the safety of installations. After a presentation of some characteristics of the ITER installation (location, activities, buildings, premise detritiation systems, electric supply, handling means, radioactive materials, chemical products, nuclear risks, specific risks), the report addresses the installation robustness by identifying cliff-edge effect risks which can be related to a loss of confinement of radioactive materials, explosions, a significant increase of exposure level, a possible effect on water sheets, and so on. The next part addresses the various aspects related to a seismic risk: installation sizing (assessment methodology, seismic risk characterization in Cadarache), sizing protection measures, installation compliance, and margin assessment. External flooding is the next addressed risk: installation sizing with respect to this specific risk, protection measures, installation compliance, margin assessment, and studied additional measures. Other extreme natural phenomena are considered (meteorological conditions, earthquake and flood) which may have effects on other installations (dam, canal). Then, the report addresses technical risks like the loss of electric supplies and cooling systems, the way a crisis is managed in terms of technical and human means and organization in different typical accidental cases. Subcontracting practices are also discussed. A synthesis proposes an overview of this additional safety assessment and discusses the impact which could have additional measures which could be implemented

  11. X-rays sensing properties of MEH-PPV, Alq₃ and additive components: a new organic dosimeter as a candidate for minimizing the risk of accidents of patients undergoing radiation oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimitberger, T; Ferreira, G R; Akcelrud, L C; Saraiva, M F; Bianchi, R F

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we report our experimental design in searching a smart and easy-to-read dosimeter used to detect 6 MV X-rays for improving patient safety in radiation oncology. The device was based on an organic emissive solutions of poly(2-methoxy-5(2'-ethylhexyloxy)-p-phenylenevinylene) (MEH-PPV), aluminum-tris-(8-hydroxyquinoline) (Alq₃) and additive components which were characterized by UV-Vis absorption, photoluminescence and CIE color coordinate diagram. The optical properties of MEH-PPV/Alq₃ solutions have been examined as function of radiation dose over the range of 0-100 Gy. It has shown that MEH-PPV/Alq₃ solutions are specifically sensitive to X-rays, since the effect of radiation on this organic system is strongly correlated with the efficient spectral overlap between Alq₃ emission and the absorption of degraded MEH-PPV, which alters the color and photoemission of MEH-PPV/Alq₃ mixtures from red to yellow, and then to green. The rate of this change is more sensitive when MEH-PPV/Alq₃ is irradiated in the presence of benzoyl peroxide than when in the presence of hindered phenolic stabilizers, respectively, an accelerator and an inhibitor to activate or inhibit free radical formation. This gives rise to optimize the response curve of the dosimeter. It is clear from the experimental results that organic emissive semiconductors have potential to be used as dedicated and low-cost dosimeters to provide an independent check of beam output of a linear accelerator and therefore to give patients the opportunity to have information on the dose prescription or equipment-related problems a few minutes before being exposed to radiation. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Technological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

  13. Technological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

  14. effects of sulphur addition on addition on and mechanical properties

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    234-8034714355. 8034714355. 1. EFFECTS OF SULPHUR ADDITION ON. ADDITION ON. 2. AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES O. 3. 4. C. W. Onyia. 5. 1DEPT. OF METALLURGICAL AND MATERIALS. 6. 2, 4DEPT. OF METALLURGICAL ...

  15. Non-additive measure and integral

    CERN Document Server

    Denneberg, Dieter

    1994-01-01

    Non-Additive Measure and Integral is the first systematic approach to the subject. Much of the additive theory (convergence theorems, Lebesgue spaces, representation theorems) is generalized, at least for submodular measures which are characterized by having a subadditive integral. The theory is of interest for applications to economic decision theory (decisions under risk and uncertainty), to statistics (including belief functions, fuzzy measures) to cooperative game theory, artificial intelligence, insurance, etc. Non-Additive Measure and Integral collects the results of scattered and often isolated approaches to non-additive measures and their integrals which originate in pure mathematics, potential theory, statistics, game theory, economic decision theory and other fields of application. It unifies, simplifies and generalizes known results and supplements the theory with new results, thus providing a sound basis for applications and further research in this growing field of increasing interest. It also co...

  16. Rationale and design of the Baptist Employee Healthy Heart Study: a randomized trial assessing the efficacy of the addition of an interactive, personalized, web-based, lifestyle intervention tool to an existing health information web platform in a high-risk employee population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Janisse M; Ali, Shozab S; Roberson, Lara L; Aneni, Ehimen C; Shaharyar, Sameer; Younus, Adnan; Jamal, Omar; Ahmad, Rameez; Aziz, Muhammad A; Malik, Rehan; Spatz, Erica S; Feldman, Theodore; Fialkow, Jonathan; Veledar, Emir; Cury, Ricardo C; Agatston, Arthur S; Nasir, Khurram

    2016-07-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes confer a high risk for developing subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Persons with MetS constitute 24-34 % of the employee population at Baptist Health South Florida (BHSF), a self-insured healthcare organization. The Baptist Employee Healthy Heart Study (BEHHS) aims to assess the addition of a personalized, interactive, web-based, nutrition-management and lifestyle-management program to the existing health-expertise web platform available to BHSF employees in reducing and/or stabilizing CVD and lifestyle risk factors and markers of subclinical CVD. Subjects with MetS or Type II Diabetes will be recruited from an employee population at BHSF and randomized to either an intervention or a control arm. The intervention arm will be given access to a web-based personalized diet-modification and weight-modification program. The control arm will be reminded to use the standard informational health website available and accessible to all BHSF employees. Subjects will undergo coronary calcium testing, carotid intima-media thickness scans, peripheral arterial tonometry, and advanced lipid panel testing at visit 1, in addition to lifestyle and medical history questionnaires. All tests will be repeated at visits 2 and 4 with the exception of the coronary calcium test, which will only be performed at baseline and visit 4. Visit 3 will capture vitals, anthropometrics, and responses to the questionnaires only. Results of this study will provide information on the effectiveness of personalized, web-based, lifestyle-management tools in reducing healthcare costs, promoting healthy choices, and reducing cardiovascular risk in an employee population. It will also provide information about the natural history of carotid atherosclerosis and endothelial dysfunction in asymptomatic but high-risk populations. ClinicalTrials.gov registry, NCT01912209 . Registered on 3 July 2013.

  17. Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E Pryor

    Full Text Available Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence.To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories.Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010. Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child's caregiver (mother in 98% of cases. Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child's perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years associated with each trajectory.Three trajectories of overweight were identified: "early-onset overweight" (11.0 %, "late-onset overweight" (16.6% and "never overweight" (72.5%. Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25, short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57, and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84 were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28 was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group.The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions.

  18. Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Laura E.; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E.; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Liu, Xuecheng; Dubois, Lise; Touchette, Evelyne; Falissard, Bruno; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence. Objectives To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories. Methods Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010). Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child’s caregiver (mother in 98% of cases). Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child’s perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years) were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678). Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years) associated with each trajectory. Results Three trajectories of overweight were identified: “early-onset overweight” (11.0 %), “late-onset overweight” (16.6%) and “never overweight” (72.5%). Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25), short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57), and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84) were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28) was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group. Conclusions The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions. PMID

  19. Normalized Dynamic Blood Pressure Parameters - Additional Marker of Hypertension Risk

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurák, Pavel; Halámek, Josef; Vondra, Vlastimil; Leinveber, P.; Fráňa, P.; Plachý, M.; Souček, M.; Kára, T.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 1 (2008), s. 103 ISSN 1556-7451. [World Congress on Heart Disease /14./. 26.07.2008-29.07.2008, Toronto] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20650511 Keywords : hypertension * vessel compliance * blood pressure * dynamic parameters Subject RIV: FA - Cardiovascular Disease s incl. Cardiotharic Surgery

  20. Additional investigations on the consequences of accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.; Burkart, K.

    1982-01-01

    As a first step to improve the accident consequence model of the German Risk Study within the Phase B, additional investigations on special problems and questions were performed. In detail attention is given to the following topics: emergency protective actions in the vicinity of the site; latent cancer fatalities - allocated to the population living during the nuclear accident and to persons born afterwards, within and beyond a distance of 540 km from the site, caused by radiation doses below the dose limits of the German radiation protection regulations estimated assuming a nonlinear dose response function; risk assessments of nuclear power plants with lower capacities; loss of life expectancy after accidental radiation exposure. All results are presented separately for the 8 release categories of the German Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  1. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  2. ADDITIVES USED TO OBTAIN FOOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorina Ardelean

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of food additives in food is determined by the growth of contemporary food needs of the world population. Additives used in food, both natural and artificial ones, contribute to: improving the organoleptic characteristics and to preserve the food longer, but we must not forget that all these additives should not be found naturally in food products. Some of these additives are not harmful and human pests in small quantities, but others may have harmful effects on health.

  3. Color Addition and Subtraction Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Frances; Ruiz, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Color addition and subtraction apps in HTML5 have been developed for students as an online hands-on experience so that they can more easily master principles introduced through traditional classroom demonstrations. The evolution of the additive RGB color model is traced through the early IBM color adapters so that students can proceed step by step…

  4. How Safe Are Color Additives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Linkedin Pin it Email Print Subscribe: FDA Consumer Health Information Color additives give the red tint to your fruit punch ... in Foods, Drugs, Cosmetics, and Medical Devices Color Additives: FDA's Regulatory Process and Historical Perspectives ... Health Cosmetics Dietary Supplements Drugs Food Medical Devices Nutrition ...

  5. Density measures and additive property

    OpenAIRE

    Kunisada, Ryoichi

    2015-01-01

    We deal with finitely additive measures defined on all subsets of natural numbers which extend the asymptotic density (density measures). We consider a class of density measures which are constructed from free ultrafilters on natural numbers and study a certain additivity property of such density measures.

  6. Study Protocol: The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention Study [NDPS]: a 46 month multi - centre, randomised, controlled parallel group trial of a lifestyle intervention [with or without additional support from lay lifestyle mentors with Type 2 diabetes] to prevent transition to Type 2 diabetes in high risk groups with non - diabetic hyperglycaemia, or impaired fasting glucose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascale, Melanie; Murray, Nikki; Bachmann, Max; Barton, Garry; Clark, Allan; Howe, Amanda; Greaves, Colin; Sampson, Mike

    2017-01-06

    This 7 year NIHR programme [2011-2018] tests the primary hypothesis that the NDPS diet and physical activity intervention will reduce the risk of transition to type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in groups at high risk of Type 2 diabetes. The NDPS programme recognizes the need to reduce intervention costs through group delivery and the use of lay mentors with T2DM, the realities of normal primary care, and the complexity of the current glycaemic categorisation of T2DM risk. NDPS identifies people at highest risk of T2DM on the databases of 135 general practices in the East of England for further screening with ab fasting plasma glucose and glycosylated haemoglobin [HbA1c]. Those with an elevated fasting plasma glucose [impaired fasting glucose or IFG] with or without an elevated HbA1c [non -diabetic hyperglycaemia; NDH] are randomised into three treatment arms: a control arm receiving no trial intervention, an arm receiving an intensive bespoke group-based diet and physical activity intervention, and an arm receiving the same intervention with enhanced support from people with T2DM trained as diabetes prevention mentors [DPM]. The primary end point is cumulative transition rates to T2DM between the two intervention groups, and between each intervention group and the control group at 46 months. Participants with screen detected T2DM are randomized into an equivalent prospective controlled trial with the same intervention and control arms with glycaemic control [HbA1c] at 46 months as the primary end point. Participants with NDH and a normal fasting plasma glucose are randomised into an equivalent prospective controlled intervention trial with follow up for 40 months. The intervention comprises six education sessions for the first 12 weeks and then up to 15 maintenance sessions until intervention end, all delivered in groups, with additional support from a DPM in one treatment arm. The NDPS programme reports in 2018 and will provide trial outcome data for a group delivered

  7. Prevalence of Food Additive Intolerance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard

    1994-01-01

    The prevalence estimates vary with a factor 100. As the results vary so do the study populations. 6 If the different study populations are accounted for, a common conclusion can be drawn: Food additive intolerance is found in adults with atopic symptoms from the respiratory tract and skin. The prevalence......1 The existing prevalence estimates of food additive intolerance(1-4) are being reviewed. 2 In the EEC report the estimated frequency of food additive intolerance is 0.03% to 0.15% based on data from patient groups. 3 The British population study results in a prevalence estimate of 0.......026%. The challenged population is 81 children and adults with a history of reproducible clinical symptoms after ingestion of food additives. 4 In the Danish population study a prevalence of 1-2% is found in children age 5-16. In this study a total of 606 children mainly with atopic disease have been challenged. 5...

  8. Topology Optimization for Additive Manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Anders

    This PhD thesis deals with the combination of topology optimization and additive man-ufacturing (AM, also known as 3D-printing). In addition to my own works, the thesis contains a broader review and assessment of the literature within the field. The thesis first presents a classification...... of the various AM technologies, a review of relevant manufacturing materials, the properties of these materials in the additively manufactured part, as well as manufacturing constraints with a potential for design optimization. Subsequently, specific topology optimization formulations relevant for the most im...... for scalable manufacturing. In relation to interface problems it is shown how a flexible void area may be included into a standard minimum compliance problem by employing an additional design variable field and a sensitivity filter. Furthermore, it is shown how the design of coated structures may be modeled...

  9. (ICSID) ADDITIONAL FACILITY IN INTERNA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fr. Ikenga

    ... which is adopted by Article 5 of the Additional Facility Rules to guide the ... B, Barrister at Law, e-mail: kcezeibe@yahoo.com; Phone 08033950631 and .... revision and annulment which are internally available under the Washington ...

  10. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  11. Wide and High Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Post, Brian K. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Roschli, Alex C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate the enabling technologies for Wide and High Additive Manufacturing (WHAM). WHAM will open up new areas of U.S. manufacturing for very large tooling in support of the transportation and energy industries, significantly reducing cost and lead time. As with Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM), the initial focus is on the deposition of composite materials.

  12. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior.

  13. Engineering risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

    1991-01-01

    The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

  14. effects of sulphur addition on addition on and mechanical properties

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    on the microstructure and mechanical properties of sand cast been investigated ... owed that the addition of sulphur to Al-12wt%Si alloy. 12wt%Si alloy .... 28 materials. 29. Element. Aluminum. Silicon. Al. Si. Ca. Fe. Cu. Zn. Mn. Mg. Cr. B. 99.71.

  15. Evaluation of certain food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report represents the conclusions of a Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee convened to evaluate the safety of various food additives, including flavouring agents, with a view to concluding as to safety concerns and to preparing specifications for identity and purity. The first part of the report contains a general discussion of the principles governing the toxicological evaluation of and assessment of dietary exposure to food additives, including flavouring agents. A summary follows of the Committee’s evaluations of technical, toxicological and dietary exposure data for 10 food additives (Allura Red AC; carob bean gum; lutein esters from Tagetes erecta; octenyl succinic acid (OSA)– modified gum arabic; pectin; Quinoline Yellow; rosemary extract; steviol glycosides; tartrazine; and xanthan gum) and five groups of flavouring agents (alicyclic, alicyclic-fused and aromatic-fused ring lactones; aliphatic and aromatic amines and amides; aliphatic secondary alcohols, ketones and related esters; cinnamyl alcohol and related substances; and tetrahydrofuran and furanone derivatives). Specifications for the following food additives were revised: aspartame; cassia gum; citric and fatty acid esters of glycerol (CITREM); modified starches; octanoic acid; starch sodium octenyl succinate; and total colouring matters. Annexed to the report are tables summarizing the Committee’s recommendations for dietary exposures to and toxicological evaluations of all of the food additives, including flavouring agents, considered at this meeting.

  16. Additive manufacturing of tunable lenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlichting, Katja; Novak, Tobias; Heinrich, Andreas

    2017-02-01

    Individual additive manufacturing of optical systems based on 3D Printing offers varied possibilities in design and usage. In addition to the additive manufacturing procedure, the usage of tunable lenses allows further advantages for intelligent optical systems. Our goal is to bring the advantages of additive manufacturing together with the huge potential of tunable lenses. We produced tunable lenses as a bundle without any further processing steps, like polishing. The lenses were designed and directly printed with a 3D Printer as a package. The design contains the membrane as an optical part as well as the mechanical parts of the lens, like the attachments for the sleeves which contain the oil. The dynamic optical lenses were filled with an oil. The focal length of the lenses changes due to a change of the radius of curvature. This change is caused by changing the pressure in the inside of the lens. In addition to that, we designed lenses with special structures to obtain different areas with an individual optical power. We want to discuss the huge potential of this technology for several applications. Further, an appropriate controlling system is needed. Wéll show the possibilities to control and regulate the optical power of the lenses. The lenses could be used for illumination tasks, and in the future, for individual measurement tasks. The main advantage is the individuality and the possibility to create an individual design which completely fulfills the requirements for any specific application.

  17. Calcium addition in straw gasification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risnes, H.; Fjellerup, Jan Søren; Henriksen, Ulrik Birk

    2003-01-01

    The present work focuses on the influence of calcium addition in gasification. The inorganic¿organic element interaction as well as the detailed inorganic¿inorganic elements interaction has been studied. The effect of calcium addition as calcium sugar/molasses solutions to straw significantly...... affected the ash chemistry and the ash sintering tendency but much less the char reactivity. Thermo balance test are made and high-temperature X-ray diffraction measurements are performed, the experimental results indicate that with calcium addition major inorganic¿inorganic reactions take place very late...... in the char conversion process. Comprehensive global equilibrium calculations predicted important characteristics of the inorganic ash residue. Equilibrium calculations predict the formation of liquid salt if sufficient amounts of Ca are added and according to experiments as well as calculations calcium binds...

  18. Additional disulfide bonds in insulin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Tine N; Pettersson, Ingrid; Huus, Kasper

    2015-01-01

    The structure of insulin, a glucose homeostasis-controlling hormone, is highly conserved in all vertebrates and stabilized by three disulfide bonds. Recently, we designed a novel insulin analogue containing a fourth disulfide bond located between positions A10-B4. The N-terminus of insulin's B......-chain is flexible and can adapt multiple conformations. We examined how well disulfide bond predictions algorithms could identify disulfide bonds in this region of insulin. In order to identify stable insulin analogues with additional disulfide bonds, which could be expressed, the Cβ cut-off distance had...... in comparison to analogues with additional disulfide bonds that were more difficult to predict. In contrast, addition of the fourth disulfide bond rendered all analogues resistant to fibrillation under stress conditions and all stable analogues bound to the insulin receptor with picomolar affinities. Thus...

  19. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  20. Aminodisulfides as additives to lubricants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balin, A.I.; Tarasevich, V.B.; Veretenova, T.N.

    1980-01-01

    A study was carried out and tehcnology developed for producing sulfur-nitrogen containing additives of the type of aminodisulfide by interaction of beta, beta-dichlordialkyl (aryl) disulfides with diethanolamine in a medium of sulfur-diethanolamine. The 2,2'-bis-(diethanol)-dialkyl(aryl) disulfides obtained do not hydrolyze in aqueous soltuions of alkalis, exhibit rather high antiscoring properties and are recommended for tests as active additives of high pressure to SOZH and technological lubricants of the oil and emulsion types.

  1. Additive to clay drilling muds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voytenko, V.S.; Nekrasova, V.B.; Nikitinskiy, E.L.; Ponomarev, V.N.

    1984-01-01

    The purpose of the invention is to improve the lubricating and strengthening properties of clay drilling muds. This goal is achieved because the lubricating and strengthening additive used is waste from the pulp and paper industry at the stage of reprocessing crude sulfate soap into phytosterol.

  2. The selective addition of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Resch, V.; Hanefeld, U.

    2014-01-01

    Water is omnipresent and essential. Yet at the same time it is a rather unreactive molecule. The direct addition of water to C[double bond, length as m-dash]C double bonds is therefore a challenge not answered convincingly. In this perspective we critically evaluate the selectivity and the

  3. Additive manufacturing in maxillofacial reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dincă Luciana Laura

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the benefits of using additive manufacturing technologies in maxillofacial reconstruction are highlighted. Based on a real clinical case, the paper describes the manufacture of an implant prototype replacing the right zygomatic bone and a part of maxilla using additive manufacturing technologies. The face is the most expressive part of the human body that makes us unique. It was shown that the maxillofacial prostheses help to improve the psychological state of patients affected by, because low self esteem feeling appears commonly to this patients with the facial defects. The aim of this paper is to show how using additive manufacturing technologies methods within this research, the producing a surgical model will help surgeon to improve the pre-operative planning. For this we used additive manufacturing technologies such as Stereolitography to achieve the biomodel and FDM-fused deposition modelling to obtain a prototype model because these technologies make it possible to obtain prosthesis according to the physical and mechanical requirements of the region of implantation.

  4. Radiation curable Michael addition compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, G.W.; Friedlander, C.B.; McDonald, W.H.; Dowbenko, R.

    1979-01-01

    Radiation polymerizable acrylyloxy-containing reaction products are provided from Michael addition reaction of an amide containing at least two acrylate groups with a primary or secondary amine. The resulting amine adducts of the amide, which contain at least one acrylate group per molecule, possesses high cure rates in air and are useful in compositions for forming coatings. (author)

  5. Additively manufactured porous tantalum implants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wauthle, Ruben; Van Der Stok, Johan; Yavari, Saber Amin; Van Humbeeck, Jan; Kruth, Jean Pierre; Zadpoor, Amir Abbas; Weinans, Harrie; Mulier, Michiel; Schrooten, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The medical device industry's interest in open porous, metallic biomaterials has increased in response to additive manufacturing techniques enabling the production of complex shapes that cannot be produced with conventional techniques. Tantalum is an important metal for medical devices because of

  6. Evaluation of certain food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    This report represents the conclusions of a Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee convened to evaluate the safety of various food additives, including flavouring agents, with a view to concluding as to safety concerns and to preparing specifications for identity and purity. The first part of the report contains a general discussion of the principles governing the toxicological evaluation of and assessment of dietary exposure to food additives, including flavouring agents. A summary follows of the Committee's evaluations of technical, toxicological and dietary exposure data for five food additives (magnesium dihydrogen diphosphate; mineral oil (medium and low viscosity) classes II and III; 3-phytase from Aspergillus niger expressed in Aspergillus niger; serine protease (chymotrypsin) from Nocardiopsis prasina expressed in Bacillus licheniformis; and serine protease (trypsin) from Fusarium oxysporum expressed in Fusarium venenatum) and 16 groups of flavouring agents (aliphatic and aromatic amines and amides; aliphatic and aromatic ethers; aliphatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, carboxylic acids and related esters, sulfides, disulfides and ethers containing furan substitution; aliphatic linear alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes, acids and related alcohols, acetals and esters; amino acids and related substances; epoxides; furfuryl alcohol and related substances; linear and branched-chain aliphatic, unsaturated, unconjugated alcohols, aldehydes, acids and related esters; miscellaneous nitrogen-containing substances; phenol and phenol derivatives; pyrazine derivatives; pyridine, pyrrole and quinoline derivatives; saturated aliphatic acyclic branched-chain primary alcohols, aldehydes and acids; simple aliphatic and aromatic sulfides and thiols; sulfur-containing heterocyclic compounds; and sulfur-substituted furan derivatives). Specifications for the following food additives were revised: ethyl cellulose, mineral oil (medium viscosity), modified starches and titanium

  7. Life cycle assessment and additives: state of knowledge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    is to identify research needs within this area focusing on both risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA). Besides the sectors on paper and plastics also lubricants, textiles, electronics and leather are included in RiskCycle. On plastics a literature review regarding the state of knowledge......Concerns about possible toxic effects from additives/impurities accumulated in globally recycled waste/resources like paper and plastics was one of the main reasons for starting up the EU FP7 Coordination Action project RiskCycle (www.wadef.com/projects/riskcycle). A key aim of the project...... on additives/impurities in LCA has been performed within RiskCycle. Several inventory databases (LCI data) have been investigated and the result shows that most LCI databases use PlasticsEurope data for plastics production. Most of these data are aggregated and do not include additives. Regarding...

  8. Additive theory of prime numbers

    CERN Document Server

    Hua, L K

    2009-01-01

    Loo-Keng Hua was a master mathematician, best known for his work using analytic methods in number theory. In particular, Hua is remembered for his contributions to Waring's Problem and his estimates of trigonometric sums. Additive Theory of Prime Numbers is an exposition of the classic methods as well as Hua's own techniques, many of which have now also become classic. An essential starting point is Vinogradov's mean-value theorem for trigonometric sums, which Hua usefully rephrases and improves. Hua states a generalized version of the Waring-Goldbach problem and gives asymptotic formulas for the number of solutions in Waring's Problem when the monomial x^k is replaced by an arbitrary polynomial of degree k. The book is an excellent entry point for readers interested in additive number theory. It will also be of value to those interested in the development of the now classic methods of the subject.

  9. Dolomitic lime containing hydraulic additive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagzdina, S.; Sedmalis, U.; Bidermanis, L.; Liepins, J.; Grosvalds, I.

    1997-01-01

    To obtain qualitative dolomitic lime the optimum calcination temperature of dolomite containing about 9 % of clayey substances is 900 deg C. The mechanical strength of dolomitic lime containing 30 % of brick waste additive after 6-9 months of hardening is 1.4-1.5 times higher than that of samples without hydraulic additive, for calcium lime - 2.2-2.6 times higher. Generally the mechanical strength of dolomitic lime is higher than that one of calcium lime. It can be explained by the active role of MgO in the hydration and hardening processes of dolomitic lime. Xray diffraction phase analysis was performed by X-ray diffractometer DPON-3M with Cu-K α emission filter

  10. Decontamination formulation with sorbent additive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker; Mark D. , Comstock; Robert H.

    2007-10-16

    A decontamination formulation and method of making that neutralizes the adverse health effects of both chemical and biological compounds, especially chemical warfare (CW) and biological warfare (BW) agents, and toxic industrial chemicals. The formulation provides solubilizing compounds that serve to effectively render the chemical and biological compounds, particularly CW and BW compounds, susceptible to attack, and at least one reactive compound that serves to attack (and detoxify or kill) the compound. The formulation includes at least one solubilizing agent, a reactive compound, a bleaching activator, a sorbent additive, and water. The highly adsorbent, water-soluble sorbent additive (e.g., sorbitol or mannitol) is used to "dry out" one or more liquid ingredients, such as the liquid bleaching activator (e.g., propylene glycol diacetate or glycerol diacetate) and convert the activator into a dry, free-flowing powder that has an extended shelf life, and is more convenient to handle and mix in the field.

  11. The Frontiers of Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grote, Christopher John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-03-03

    Additive manufacturing, more commonly known as 3-D printing, has become a ubiquitous tool in science for its precise control over mechanical design. For additive manufacturing to work, a 3-D structure is split into thin 2D slices, and then different physical properties, such as photo-polymerization or melting, are used to grow the sequential layers. The level of control allows not only for devices to be made with a variety of materials: e.g. plastics, metals, and quantum dots, but to also have finely controlled structures leading to other novel properties. While 3-D printing is widely used by hobbyists for making models, it also has industrial applications in structural engineering, biological tissue scaffolding, customized electric circuitry, fuel cells, security, and more.

  12. Trust Trust Me (The Additivity)

    OpenAIRE

    Mano , Ken; Sakurada , Hideki; Tsukada , Yasuyuki

    2017-01-01

    Part 4: Trust Metrics; International audience; We present a mathematical formulation of a trust metric using a quality and quantity pair. Under a certain assumption, we regard trust as an additive value and define the soundness of a trust computation as not to exceed the total sum. Moreover, we point out the importance of not only soundness of each computed trust but also the stability of the trust computation procedure against changes in trust value assignment. In this setting, we define tru...

  13. A manual on using additives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Bong Hoon

    1991-10-01

    This book consists of five chapters, which describe plasticizer ; summary, synthesis of plasticizer, basic notion, analysis and test on plasticizer, stabilizer ; stabilizer for plastic, an antioxidant, phosphorous acid estelle, ultraviolet ray absorbent, performance of stabilizer, influence on another additives, mix case of PVC production and analysis method for stabilizer, ultraviolet ray absorbent ; basic property and ultraviolet ray absorbent maker, anti-static agent ; basics, anti-static agent of a high molecule and analysis of anti-static agent, flame retardant of plastic.

  14. Additive property of separative power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Ichiro; Kanagawa, Akira

    1980-01-01

    A separative power of a separating element, whose heads and tails separation factors are α and β, is expressed by phi sub(b)(α, β) = [α(β - 1)1n α - (α - 1)1n β]/(αβ - 1) for the unit flow of the desired material and phi sub(a)(α, β) (= phi sub(b)(β, α)) for that of undesired material. The additive properties of the functions phi sub(b) and phi sub(a) were demonstrated by calculations of various types of ideal cascades, but the origin of the property is not obvious. The present study has furnished the mathematical basis of the additivity based on the special functional equation. First, for symmetric processes (α = β), the functional equation which describes the function representing the quality of separation f(α, α) concerning the desired material was obtained and solved to give the functional form of f(α, α). The result was extented to the function f(α, β) representing the quality of asymmetric separation (α not equal β). The derived function f(α, β) was demonstrated to be equal to phi sub(b)(α, β), and it was verified that functions phi sub(b)(α, β) and phi sub(a)(α, β) have the additive property in themselves. (author)

  15. Evaluation of certain food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    This report represents the conclusions of a Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee convened to evaluate the safety of various food additives, including flavouring agents, with a view to recommending acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) and to preparing specifications for identity and purity. The first part of the report contains a general discussion of the principles governing the toxicological evaluation and assessment of intake of food additives (in particular, flavouring agents). A summary follows of the Committee's evaluations of technical, toxicological and intake data for certain food additives (asparaginase from Aspergillus niger expressed in A. niger, calcium lignosulfonate (40-65), ethyl lauroyl arginate, paprika extract, phospholipase C expressed in Pichia pastoris, phytosterols, phytostanols and their esters, polydimethylsiloxane, steviol glycosides and sulfites [assessment of dietary exposure]) and 10 groups of related flavouring agents (aliphatic branched-chain saturated and unsaturated alcohols, aldehydes, acids and related esters; aliphatic linear alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes, acids and related alcohols, acetals and esters; aliphatic secondary alcohols, ketones and related esters; alkoxy-substituted allylbenzenes present in foods and essential oils and used as flavouring agents; esters of aliphatic acyclic primary alcohols with aliphatic linear saturated carboxylic acids; furan-substituted aliphatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, carboxylic acids and related esters, sulfides, disulfides and ethers; miscellaneous nitrogen-containing substances; monocyclic and bicyclic secondary alcohols, ketones and related esters; hydroxy- and alkoxy-substituted benzyl derivatives; and substances structurally related to menthol). Specifications for the following food additives were revised: canthaxanthin; carob bean gum and carob bean gum (clarified); chlorophyllin copper complexes, sodium and potassium salts; Fast Green FCF; guar gum and guar gum (clarified

  16. Microbial analyses of cement and grouting additives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbeck, L.; Jaegevall, S.; Paeaejaervi, A.; Rabe, L.; Edlund, J.; Eriksson, S.

    2012-01-01

    During sampling in the ONKALO tunnel in 2006, heavy growth of a slimy material was observed in connection with grouting. It was suggested to be microbial growth on organic additives leaching from the grout. Two sampling campaigns resulted in the isolation of several aerobic bacterial strains. Some of these strains were used in biodegradation studies of three solid cement powders, eight liquid grout additives, and six plastic drainage materials. Degradation was also studied using ONKALO groundwaters as inoculums. The isolated strains were most closely related to hydrocarbon-degrading microorganisms. The biodegradation of seven of the products was tested using microorganisms isolated from the ONKALO slime in 2006; none of these strains could degrade the tested products. When ONKALO drillhole groundwaters were used as inoculums in the degradation studies, it was demonstrated that Structuro 111X, Mighty 150, and Super-Parmix supported growth of the groundwater microorganisms. Structuro 111X is a polycarboxylate condensate while Mighty 150 and Super-Parmix are condensates with formaldehyde and naphthalene. Some of the isolated microorganisms belonged to the genus Pseudomonas, many strains of which can degrade organic molecules. None of the plastic drainage materials supported growth during the degradation studies. Microorganisms were present in two of the liquid products when delivered, GroutAid and Super-Parmix. The potential of the organic compounds in grout additives to be degraded by microorganisms, increasing the risk of biofilm formation and complexing compound production, must be considered. Microbial growth will also increase the possibility of hydrogen sulphide formation. (orig.)

  17. Additive Manufacturing of Porous Metal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dehoff, Ryan R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kirka, Michael M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Currently, helium is obtained through separation from natural gas. The current industrial process incurs significant costs and requires large energy resources to successfully achieve separation. Through utilizing Additive Manufacturing (AM) technologies it is possible to reduce both of these burdens when refining helium gas. The ability to engineer porosity levels within Inconel 718 discs for controlled separation of helium from natural gas was investigated. Arrays of samples fabricated using the electron beam melting process were analyzed for their relative porosity density. Based upon the measurements, full scale discs were fabricated, and subsequently tested to determine their effectiveness in separating helium from liquefied natural gas.

  18. Additive manufacturing of RF absorbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Matthew S.

    The ability of additive manufacturing techniques to fabricate integrated electromagnetic absorbers tuned for specific radio frequency bands within structural composites allows for unique combinations of mechanical and electromagnetic properties. These composites and films can be used for RF shielding of sensitive electromagnetic components through in-plane and out-of-plane RF absorption. Structural composites are a common building block of many commercial platforms. These platforms may be placed in situations in which there is a need for embedded RF absorbing properties along with structural properties. Instead of adding radar absorbing treatments to the external surface of existing structures, which adds increased size, weight and cost; it could prove to be advantageous to integrate the microwave absorbing properties directly into the composite during the fabrication process. In this thesis, a method based on additive manufacturing techniques of composites structures with prescribed electromagnetic loss, within the frequency range 1 to 26GHz, is presented. This method utilizes screen printing and nScrypt micro dispensing to pattern a carbon based ink onto low loss substrates. The materials chosen for this study will be presented, and the fabrication technique that these materials went through to create RF absorbing structures will be described. The calibration methods used, the modeling of the RF structures, and the applications in which this technology can be utilized will also be presented.

  19. Mechanics of additively manufactured biomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadpoor, Amir A

    2017-06-01

    Additive manufacturing (3D printing) has found many applications in healthcare including fabrication of biomaterials as well as bioprinting of tissues and organs. Additively manufactured (AM) biomaterials may possess arbitrarily complex micro-architectures that give rise to novel mechanical, physical, and biological properties. The mechanical behavior of such porous biomaterials including their quasi-static mechanical properties and fatigue resistance is not yet well understood. It is particularly important to understand the relationship between the designed micro-architecture (topology) and the resulting mechanical properties. The current special issue is dedicated to understanding the mechanical behavior of AM biomaterials. Although various types of AM biomaterials are represented in the special issue, the primary focus is on AM porous metallic biomaterials. As a prelude to this special issue, this editorial reviews some of the latest findings in the mechanical behavior of AM porous metallic biomaterials so as to describe the current state-of-the-art and set the stage for the other studies appearing in the issue. Some areas that are important for future research are also briefly mentioned. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Additive versus multiplicative muon conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemethy, P.

    1981-01-01

    Experimental elucidation of the question of muon conservation is reviewed. It is shown that neutral-current experiments have not yet yielded information about muonium-antimuonium conversion at the weak-interaction level and that all the charged-current experiments agree that there is no evidence for a multiplicative law. The best limits, from the muon-decay neutrino experiment at LAMPF and from the inverse muon-decay experiment in the CERN neutrino beam, definitely exclude multiplicative law schemes with a branching ratio R approximately 1/2. It is concluded that unless the dynamics conspire to make a multiplicative law with very small R it would appear that muon conservation obeys conserved additive lepton flavor law. (U.K.)

  1. An Additive Manufacturing Test Artifact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moylan, Shawn; Slotwinski, John; Cooke, April; Jurrens, Kevin; Donmez, M Alkan

    2014-01-01

    A test artifact, intended for standardization, is proposed for the purpose of evaluating the performance of additive manufacturing (AM) systems. A thorough analysis of previously proposed AM test artifacts as well as experience with machining test artifacts have inspired the design of the proposed test artifact. This new artifact is designed to provide a characterization of the capabilities and limitations of an AM system, as well as to allow system improvement by linking specific errors measured in the test artifact to specific sources in the AM system. The proposed test artifact has been built in multiple materials using multiple AM technologies. The results of several of the builds are discussed, demonstrating how the measurement results can be used to characterize and improve a specific AM system. PMID:26601039

  2. Business models for additive manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hadar, Ronen; Bilberg, Arne; Bogers, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Digital fabrication — including additive manufacturing (AM), rapid prototyping and 3D printing — has the potential to revolutionize the way in which products are produced and delivered to the customer. Therefore, it challenges companies to reinvent their business model — describing the logic...... of creating and capturing value. In this paper, we explore the implications that AM technologies have for manufacturing systems in the new business models that they enable. In particular, we consider how a consumer goods manufacturer can organize the operations of a more open business model when moving from...... a manufacturer-centric to a consumer-centric value logic. A major shift includes a move from centralized to decentralized supply chains, where consumer goods manufacturers can implement a “hybrid” approach with a focus on localization and accessibility or develop a fully personalized model where the consumer...

  3. Additive manufacturing with polypropylene microfibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Jodie N; Dargaville, Tim R; Dalton, Paul D

    2017-08-01

    The additive manufacturing of small diameter polypropylene microfibers is described, achieved using a technique termed melt electrospinning writing. Sequential fiber layering, which is important for accurate three-dimensional fabrication, was achieved with the smallest fiber diameter of 16.4±0.2μm obtained. The collector speed, temperature and melt flow rate to the nozzle were optimized for quality and minimal fiber pulsing. Of particular importance to the success of this method is appropriate heating of the collector plate, so that the electrostatically drawn filament adheres during the direct-writing process. By demonstrating the direct-writing of polypropylene, new applications exploiting the favorable mechanical, stability and biocompatible properties of this polymer are envisaged. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  5. Additional Equipment for Soil Biodegradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vondráčková, Terezie; Kraus, Michal; Šál, Jiří

    2017-12-01

    Intensification of industrial production, increasing citizens’ living standards, expanding the consumer assortment mean in the production - consumption cycle a constantly increasing occurrence of waste material, which by its very nature must be considered as a source of useful raw materials in all branches of human activity. In addition to strict legislative requirements, a number of circumstances characterize waste management. It is mainly extensive transport associated with the handling and storage of large volumes of substances with a large assortment of materials (substances of all possible physical and chemical properties) and high demands on reliability and time coordination of follow-up processes. Considerable differences in transport distances, a large number of sources, processors and customers, and not least seasonal fluctuations in waste and strong price pressures cannot be overlooked. This highlights the importance of logistics in waste management. Soils that are contaminated with oil and petroleum products are hazardous industrial waste. Methods of industrial waste disposal are landfilling, biological processes, thermal processes and physical and chemical methods. The paper focuses on the possibilities of degradation of oil pollution, in particular biodegradation by bacteria, which is relatively low-cost among technologies. It is necessary to win the fight with time so that no ground water is contaminated. We have developed two additional devices to help reduce oil accident of smaller ranges. In the case of such an oil accident, it is necessary to carry out the permeability test of contaminated soil in time and, on this basis, to choose the technology appropriate to the accident - either in-sit biodegradation - at the site of the accident, or on-sit - to remove the soil and biodegrade it on the designated deposits. A special injection drill was developed for in-sit biodegradation, tossing and aeration equipment of the extracted soil was developed for

  6. Quantifying discrimination of Framingham risk functions with different survival C statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Song, Linye

    2012-07-10

    Cardiovascular risk prediction functions offer an important diagnostic tool for clinicians and patients themselves. They are usually constructed with the use of parametric or semi-parametric survival regression models. It is essential to be able to evaluate the performance of these models, preferably with summaries that offer natural and intuitive interpretations. The concept of discrimination, popular in the logistic regression context, has been extended to survival analysis. However, the extension is not unique. In this paper, we define discrimination in survival analysis as the model's ability to separate those with longer event-free survival from those with shorter event-free survival within some time horizon of interest. This definition remains consistent with that used in logistic regression, in the sense that it assesses how well the model-based predictions match the observed data. Practical and conceptual examples and numerical simulations are employed to examine four C statistics proposed in the literature to evaluate the performance of survival models. We observe that they differ in the numerical values and aspects of discrimination that they capture. We conclude that the index proposed by Harrell is the most appropriate to capture discrimination described by the above definition. We suggest researchers report which C statistic they are using, provide a rationale for their selection, and be aware that comparing different indices across studies may not be meaningful. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simbeye Jupiter S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

  8. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  9. Incommensurate crystallography without additional dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocian, Philippe

    2013-07-01

    It is shown that the Euclidean group of translations, when treated as a Lie group, generates translations not only in Euclidean space but on any space, curved or not. Translations are then not necessarily vectors (straight lines); they can be any curve compatible with the parameterization of the considered space. In particular, attention is drawn to the fact that one and only one finite and free module of the Lie algebra of the group of translations can generate both modulated and non-modulated lattices, the modulated character being given only by the parameterization of the space in which the lattice is generated. Moreover, it is shown that the diffraction pattern of a structure is directly linked to the action of that free and finite module. In the Fourier transform of a whole structure, the Fourier transform of the electron density of one unit cell (i.e. the structure factor) appears concretely, whether the structure is modulated or not. Thus, there exists a neat separation: the geometrical aspect on the one hand and the action of the group on the other, without requiring additional dimensions.

  10. Sustainability Characterization for Additive Manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Mahesh; Lyons, Kevin W; Gupta, S K

    2014-01-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) has the potential to create geometrically complex parts that require a high degree of customization, using less material and producing less waste. Recent studies have shown that AM can be an economically viable option for use by the industry, yet there are some inherent challenges associated with AM for wider acceptance. The lack of standards in AM impedes its use for parts production since industries primarily depend on established standards in processes and material selection to ensure the consistency and quality. Inability to compare AM performance against traditional manufacturing methods can be a barrier for implementing AM processes. AM process sustainability has become a driver due to growing environmental concerns for manufacturing. This has reinforced the importance to understand and characterize AM processes for sustainability. Process characterization for sustainability will help close the gaps for comparing AM performance to traditional manufacturing methods. Based on a literature review, this paper first examines the potential environmental impacts of AM. A methodology for sustainability characterization of AM is then proposed to serve as a resource for the community to benchmark AM processes for sustainability. Next, research perspectives are discussed along with relevant standardization efforts.

  11. Dynamics of ultrasonic additive manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hehr, Adam; Dapino, Marcelo J

    2017-01-01

    Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) is a solid-state technology for joining similar and dissimilar metal foils near room temperature by scrubbing them together with ultrasonic vibrations under pressure. Structural dynamics of the welding assembly and work piece influence how energy is transferred during the process and ultimately, part quality. To understand the effect of structural dynamics during UAM, a linear time-invariant model is proposed to relate the inputs of shear force and electric current to resultant welder velocity and voltage. Measured frequency response and operating performance of the welder under no load is used to identify model parameters. Using this model and in-situ measurements, shear force and welder efficiency are estimated to be near 2000N and 80% when welding Al 6061-H18 weld foil, respectively. Shear force and welder efficiency have never been estimated before in UAM. The influence of processing conditions, i.e., welder amplitude, normal force, and weld speed, on shear force and welder efficiency are investigated. Welder velocity was found to strongly influence the shear force magnitude and efficiency while normal force and weld speed showed little to no influence. The proposed model is used to describe high frequency harmonic content in the velocity response of the welder during welding operations and coupling of the UAM build with the welder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Dimensionless numbers in additive manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, T.; Manvatkar, V.; De, A.; DebRoy, T.

    2017-02-01

    The effects of many process variables and alloy properties on the structure and properties of additively manufactured parts are examined using four dimensionless numbers. The structure and properties of components made from 316 Stainless steel, Ti-6Al-4V, and Inconel 718 powders for various dimensionless heat inputs, Peclet numbers, Marangoni numbers, and Fourier numbers are studied. Temperature fields, cooling rates, solidification parameters, lack of fusion defects, and thermal strains are examined using a well-tested three-dimensional transient heat transfer and fluid flow model. The results show that lack of fusion defects in the fabricated parts can be minimized by strengthening interlayer bonding using high values of dimensionless heat input. The formation of harmful intermetallics such as laves phases in Inconel 718 can be suppressed using low heat input that results in a small molten pool, a steep temperature gradient, and a fast cooling rate. Improved interlayer bonding can be achieved at high Marangoni numbers, which results in vigorous circulation of liquid metal, larger pool dimensions, and greater depth of penetration. A high Fourier number ensures rapid cooling, low thermal distortion, and a high ratio of temperature gradient to the solidification growth rate with a greater tendency of plane front solidification.

  13. Variant Carvajal syndrome with additional dental anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Sophy; Day, Peter; Judge, Mary; Toole, Edell O'; Fayle, Stephen

    2012-09-01

    This paper aims to review the case of a girl who presented with a number of dental anomalies, in addition to unusual skin, nail and hair conditions. Tragically an undiagnosed cardiomyopathy caused unexpected sudden death. The case is discussed with reference to a number of dermatological and oral conditions which were considered as possible diagnoses. AW had been under long term dental care for prepubertal periodontitis, premature root resorption of primary teeth, soft tissue and dental anomalies, and angular cheilitis. Separately she had also been seen by several dermatologists with respect to palmar plantar keratosis, striae keratoderma, wiry hair and abnormal finger nails. Tragically the patient suffered a sudden unexpected death and the subsequent post mortem identified an undiagnosed dilated cardiomyopathy. The most likely diagnosis is that this case is a variant of Carvajal Syndrome with additional dental anomalies. To date we have been unable to identify mutations in the desoplakin gene. We aim to emphasise the importance of recognising these dental and dermatological signs when they present together as a potential risk factor for cardiac abnormalities. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2012 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

    OpenAIRE

    Michel Rochette

    2002-01-01

    In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

  15. How many food additives are rodent carcinogens?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F M

    2002-01-01

    One generally assumes that chemical agents added to foods are reasonably free of risks to human health, and practically everyone consumes some additives in his or her food daily throughout life. In the United States, the 1958 Food Additives Amendment to the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act of 1938 requires food manufacturers to demonstrate the safety of food additives to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The Amendment contains a provision that prohibits approval of an additive if it is found to cause cancer in humans or animals. In the present study, data from the National Toxicology Program rodent bioassay (NTPRB) were used to identify a sample of approximately 50 rodent-tested additives and other chemicals added to food that had been evaluated independently of the FDA/food industry. Surprisingly, the sample shows more than 40% of these food chemicals to be carcinogenic in one or more rodent groups. If this percentage is extrapolated to all substances added to food in the United States, it would imply that more than 1000 of such substances are potential rodent carcinogens. The NTP and FDA test guidelines use similar, though not necessarily identical, rodent test procedures, including near lifetime exposures to the maximum tolerated dose. The FDA specifies that test chemicals should be administered by the oral route. However, the oral route includes three methods of delivering chemicals, that is, mixed in the food or water or delivered by stomach tube (gavage). The NTP data show only 1 of 18 food chemicals mixed in the food are rodent carcinogens, but 16 of 23 gavage-administered food chemicals are carcinogenic to rodents. The distribution suggests that among orally delivered chemicals, those administered in the feed will more likely prove to be noncarcinogens than chemicals given by gavage. The rodent data also reveal that effects may vary according to dose and genotype, as well as by route of administration, to further complicate extrapolation to humans

  16. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  17. Additive Manufacturing of Fuel Injectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadek Tadros, Dr. Alber Alphonse [Edison Welding Institute, Inc., Columbus, OH (United States); Ritter, Dr. George W. [Edison Welding Institute, Inc., Columbus, OH (United States); Drews, Charles Donald [Edison Welding Institute, Inc., Columbus, OH (United States); Ryan, Daniel [Solar Turbines Inc., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2017-10-24

    Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, has been shifting from a novelty prototyping paradigm to a legitimate manufacturing tool capable of creating components for highly complex engineered products. An emerging AM technology for producing metal parts is the laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process; however, industry manufacturing specifications and component design practices for L-PBF have not yet been established. Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), an industrial gas turbine manufacturer, has been evaluating AM technology for development and production applications with the desire to enable accelerated product development cycle times, overall turbine efficiency improvements, and supply chain flexibility relative to conventional manufacturing processes (casting, brazing, welding). Accordingly, Solar teamed with EWI on a joint two-and-a-half-year project with the goal of developing a production L-PBF AM process capable of consistently producing high-nickel alloy material suitable for high temperature gas turbine engine fuel injector components. The project plan tasks were designed to understand the interaction of the process variables and their combined impact on the resultant AM material quality. The composition of the high-nickel alloy powders selected for this program met the conventional cast Hastelloy X compositional limits and were commercially available in different particle size distributions (PSD) from two suppliers. Solar produced all the test articles and both EWI and Solar shared responsibility for analyzing them. The effects of powder metal input stock, laser parameters, heat treatments, and post-finishing methods were evaluated. This process knowledge was then used to generate tensile, fatigue, and creep material properties data curves suitable for component design activities. The key process controls for ensuring consistent material properties were documented in AM powder and process specifications. The basic components of the project

  18. Analysis of Additive Manufacturing for Sustainment of Naval Aviation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    decline and allow manufacturers to explore alternative product designs and supply processes at lower risk. If the aerospace and defense industry...C. SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING During the design and development of new products or systems, engineers must consider the...Bradford L., and Vhance V. Valencia. 2017. “3D-Printing Design Using Systems Engineering.” In Additive Manufacturing Handbook: Product Development for the

  19. Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

  20. Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David; Medhat, Mamdouh; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    2013-01-01

    We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of mo...

  1. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  2. Introduction to IGRT and additional components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mijnheer, Ben

    2008-01-01

    Image-guided radiation therapy is 'Any use of planar imaging, volumetric imaging or volumetric cine imaging, marker localization, marker tracking, patient surface imaging or patient surface tracking to improve the precision of radiation-therapy delivery' , or 'Frequent imaging in the treatment room during a course of radiotherapy to guide the treatment process'. Purpose: To verify if the correct volume in a patient is irradiated by imaging the target and/or healthy tissue prior to or during treatment. Imaging modalities include: Electronic Portal Imaging Devices (EPIDs); (Portal) imaging of implanted markers; Imaging of external markers; Ultrasound; X-ray fluoroscopy; and CT (MR) scanner in treatment room. Final remarks are as follows: The introduction of various IGRT techniques allowed 3D verification of the position of target volumes and organs at risk just before or during treatment. Because the information is in 3D, or sometimes even in 4D, in principle these IGRT approaches provide more information compared to the use of 2D verification methods (e.g. EPIDs). Clinical data are becoming available to assess quantitatively for which treatment techniques IGRT approaches are advantageous compared to the use of conventional verification methods taking the additional resources (time, money, manpower) into account. (P.A.)

  3. Radiological risk comparison guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallinan, E.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Brown, L.F.; Yoder, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    An important aspect of DOE safety analyses is estimating potential accident risk. The estimates are used to: determine if additional controls are needed, identify Safety Class Items, and demonstrate adequate risk reduction. Thus, guidelines are needed to measure comparative risks. The Westinghouse M ampersand O Nuclear Facility Safety Committee and the Safety Envelope Working Group have developed radiological risk guidelines for comparing the risks from individual accident analyses. These guidelines were prepared under contract with the US Department of Energy. These guidelines are based on historical DOE guidelines and current requirements, and satisfy DOE and technical community proposals. for goals that demonstrate acceptable risk. The guidelines consist of a frequency versus consequence curve for credible accidents. Offsite and onsite guidelines are presented. The offsite risk acceptance guidelines are presented in Figure 1. The guidelines are nearly isorisk for anticipated events where impacts are chronic, and provide additional reduction for unlikely events where impacts may be acute and risk uncertainties may be significant. The guidelines are applied to individual release accident scenarios where a discrete frequency and consequence has been estimated. The guideline curves are not to be used for total risk assessments. Common cause events are taken into consideration only for an individual facility. Frequencies outside the guideline range are considered to be local site option (analyst judgement) as far as assessments of risk acceptance are concerned. If the curve is exceeded, then options include either a more detailed analysis or imposing additional preventive or mitigative features. Another presentation discusses implementation in detail. Additional work is needed to provide risk comparison guidelines for releases from multiple facilities and for toxic releases

  4. Early expressive and receptive language trajectories in high-risk infant siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Longard

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background & aims In response to limited research on early language development in infants at high risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD, the current prospective study examined early expressive and receptive language trajectories in familial high-risk (HR infants who were and were not later diagnosed with ASD (HR-ASD and HR-N, respectively, and low-risk (LR controls with no family history of ASD. Methods Participants were 523 children (371 HR siblings, 56% boys; 152 LR controls, 52% boys followed from age 6 or 12 months to 36 months. Based on independent, best-estimate clinical diagnoses at 36 months, HR participants were classified as HR-ASD (n = 94; 69% boys, or HR-N (n = 277; 52% boys; the sample also included 152 LR controls (52% boys. Expressive and receptive language trajectories were examined based on corresponding domain standard scores on the Mullen Scales of Early Learning ( MSEL at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. In the combined sample of HR and LR infants, semi-parametric group-based modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories in MSEL standard scores. Results A 3-group solution provided optimal fit to variation in both expressive and receptive language, with the following patterns of scores: (1 inclining from average to above average, (2 stable-average, and (3 declining from average to well below average. For both expressive and receptive language, membership in these trajectories was related to 3-year diagnostic outcomes. Conclusions Although HR-ASD, HR-N, and LR control infants were in each trajectory group, membership in the declining trajectory (expressive and/or receptive was associated with an ASD diagnosis. Implications Evidence of declining trajectories in either expressive or receptive language may be a risk marker for ASD in a high-risk sample.

  5. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  6. Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

    2013-07-25

    Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

  7. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerde, Harald J. van; Leeflang, Peter S.H.; Wittink, Dick R.

    1999-01-01

    The marketing literature suggests several phenomena that may contribute to the shape of the relationship between sales and price discounts. These phenomena can produce severe nonlinearities and interactions in the curves, and we argue that those are best captured with a flexible approach. Since a

  8. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Heerde, HJ; Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    The marketing literature suggests several phenomena that may contribute to the nature of the relationship between sales and price discounts. These phenomena can produce complex nonlinearities and interactions in the deal effect curve that are best captured with a flexible approach. Because a fully

  9. Semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises for the error standard deviation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de R.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2013-01-01

    We study Bayes procedures for nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors, giving conditions under which a Bernstein–von Mises result holds for the marginal posterior distribution of the error standard deviation. We apply our general results to show that a single Bayes procedure using a

  10. Semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises for the error standard deviation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jonge, R.; van Zanten, H.

    2013-01-01

    We study Bayes procedures for nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors, giving conditions under which a Bernstein-von Mises result holds for the marginal posterior distribution of the error standard deviation. We apply our general results to show that a single Bayes procedure using a

  11. Semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises for the error standard deviation

    OpenAIRE

    Jonge, de, R.; Zanten, van, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    We study Bayes procedures for nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors, giving conditions under which a Bernstein–von Mises result holds for the marginal posterior distribution of the error standard deviation. We apply our general results to show that a single Bayes procedure using a hierarchical spline-based prior on the regression function and an independent prior on the error variance, can simultaneously achieve adaptive, rate-optimal estimation of a smooth, multivariate regr...

  12. Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

    KAUST Repository

    Hartman, Brian M.; Mallick, Bani K.; Talukdar, Debabrata

    2012-01-01

    Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms

  13. A Semiparametric Marginalized Model for Longitudinal Data with Informative Dropout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengling Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a marginalized joint-modeling approach for marginal inference on the association between longitudinal responses and covariates when longitudinal measurements are subject to informative dropouts. The proposed model is motivated by the idea of linking longitudinal responses and dropout times by latent variables while focusing on marginal inferences. We develop a simple inference procedure based on a series of estimating equations, and the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal with a sandwich-type covariance matrix ready to be estimated by the usual plug-in rule. The performance of our approach is evaluated through simulations and illustrated with a renal disease data application.

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  15. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  16. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  17. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  18. Septic tank additive impacts on microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, S; Hoover, M T; Clark, G H; Gumpertz, M; Wollum, A G; Cobb, C; Strock, J

    2008-01-01

    Environmental health specialists, other onsite wastewater professionals, scientists, and homeowners have questioned the effectiveness of septic tank additives. This paper describes an independent, third-party, field scale, research study of the effects of three liquid bacterial septic tank additives and a control (no additive) on septic tank microbial populations. Microbial populations were measured quarterly in a field study for 12 months in 48 full-size, functioning septic tanks. Bacterial populations in the 48 septic tanks were statistically analyzed with a mixed linear model. Additive effects were assessed for three septic tank maintenance levels (low, intermediate, and high). Dunnett's t-test for tank bacteria (alpha = .05) indicated that none of the treatments were significantly different, overall, from the control at the statistical level tested. In addition, the additives had no significant effects on septic tank bacterial populations at any of the septic tank maintenance levels. Additional controlled, field-based research iswarranted, however, to address additional additives and experimental conditions.

  19. Re-evaluation of azo dyes as food additives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pratt, Iona; Larsen, John Christian; Mortensen, Alicja

    2013-01-01

    additives to be assessed by the Scientific Committee on Food, many years ago, (ii) because of concern regarding possible health effects of artificial colours arising since the original evaluations.Concerns includedbehavioural effects in children, allergic reactions, genotoxicity and possible carcinogenicity......Aryl azo compounds are widely used as colorants (azo dyes) in a wide range of products including textiles, leather, paper, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and food.As part of its systematic re-evaluation of food additives, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has carried out new risk assessments...

  20. Planned home births: the need for additional contraindications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grünebaum, Amos; McCullough, Laurence B; Sapra, Katherine J; Arabin, Birgit; Chervenak, Frank A

    2017-04-01

    Planned home births in the United States are associated with fewer interventions but with increased adverse neonatal outcomes such as perinatal and neonatal deaths, neonatal seizures or serious neurologic dysfunction, and low 5-minute Apgar scores. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists' Committee on Obstetric Practice states that, to reduce perinatal death and to improve outcomes at planned home births, strict criteria are necessary to guide the selection of appropriate candidates for planned home birth. The committee lists 3 absolute contraindications for a planned home birth: fetal malpresentation, multiple gestations, and a history of cesarean delivery. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there are risk factors that should be considered contraindications to planned home births in addition to the 3 that are listed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of all term (≥37 weeks gestation), normal weight (≥2500 grams), singleton, nonanomalous births from 2009-2013 using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's period-linked birth-infant death files that allowed for identification of intended and unintended home births. We examined neonatal deaths (days 0-27 after birth) across 3 groups (hospital-attended births by certified nurse midwives, hospital-attended births by physicians, and planned home births) for 5 risk factors: 2 of the 3 absolute contraindications to home birth listed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (breech presentation and previous cesarean delivery) and 3 additional risk factors (parity [nulliparous and multiparous], maternal age [women home births (12.1 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries; Pbirths by certified nurse midwives (3.08 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries) or physicians (5.09 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries). Neonatal mortality rates were increased significantly at planned home births, with the

  1. The decisions taken in 2012 by the ASN: additional requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacoste, Andre-Claude; Comets, Marie-Pierre; Dumont, Jean-Jacques; Bourguignon, Michel; Jamet, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    After the publication of conclusions of the Additions Safety Assessments (ECS, evaluations complementaires de surete), this document gathers 32 decisions taken by the ASN in June 2012 which specify additional requirements for EDF nuclear power plants, AREVA installations, and some CEA reactors. These measures will lead to a significant strengthening of safety margins beyond their sizing. These decisions impose huge works to operators. They comprise the implementation of an organisation and the construction of premises resistant to a big event which would affect several installations. Other measures concern a deeper training of agents intervening in case of earthquake or severe accident, robust means of power supply for warehousing pools, efficient means to reduce accidental leakage of different compounds, the storing of fissile materials in an installation sufficiently strong to resist earthquakes, and improvements regarding the flood risk management and sodium fire risk management

  2. Geographical variation of overweight, obesity and related risk factors: Findings from the European Health Examination Survey in Luxembourg, 2013-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samouda, Hanen; Ruiz-Castell, Maria; Bocquet, Valery; Kuemmerle, Andrea; Chioti, Anna; Dadoun, Frédéric; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Stranges, Saverio

    2018-01-01

    The analyses of geographic variations in the prevalence of major chronic conditions, such as overweight and obesity, are an important public health tool to identify "hot spots" and inform allocation of funding for policy and health promotion campaigns, yet rarely performed. Here we aimed at exploring, for the first time in Luxembourg, potential geographic patterns in overweight/obesity prevalence in the country, adjusted for several demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and health status characteristics. Data came from 720 men and 764 women, 25-64 years old, who participated in the European Health Examination Survey in Luxembourg (2013-2015). To investigate the geographical variation, geo-additive semi-parametric mixed model and Bayesian modelisations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques for inference were performed. Large disparities in the prevalence of overweight and obesity were found between municipalities, with the highest rates of obesity found in 3 municipalities located in the South-West of the country. Bayesian approach also underlined a nonlinear effect of age on overweight and obesity in both genders (significant in men) and highlighted the following risk factors: 1. country of birth for overweight in men born in a non-European country (Posterior Odds Ratio (POR): 3.24 [1.61-8.69]) and women born in Portugal (POR: 2.44 [1.25-4.43]), 2. low educational level (secondary or below) for overweight (POR: 1.66 (1.06-2.72)] and obesity (POR:2.09 [1.05-3.65]) in men, 3. single marital status for obesity in women (POR: 2.20 [1.24-3.91]), 4.fair (men: POR: 3.19 [1.58-6.79], women: POR: 2.24 [1.33-3.73]) to very bad health perception (men: POR: 15.01 [2.16-98.09]) for obesity, 5. sleeping more than 6 hours for obesity in unemployed men (POR: 3.66 [2.02-8.03]). Protective factors highlighted were: 1. single marital status against overweight (POR: [0.60 (0.38-0.96)]) and obesity (POR: 0.39 [0.16-0.84]) in men, 2. the fact to be widowed against overweight in

  3. Additive conjoint measurement for multiattribute utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, A.; Wakker, P.P.

    1994-01-01

    This paper shows that multiattribute utility can be simplified by methods from additive conjoint measurement. Given additive conjoint measurability under certainty, axiomatizations can be simplified, and implementation and reliability of elicitation can be improved. This also contributes to the

  4. Additive Manufacturing of Aerospace Propulsion Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Ajay K.; Grady, Joseph E.; Carter, Robert

    2015-01-01

    The presentation will provide an overview of ongoing activities on additive manufacturing of aerospace propulsion components, which included rocket propulsion and gas turbine engines. Future opportunities on additive manufacturing of hybrid electric propulsion components will be discussed.

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  7. The Philosophical Consideration about Food Additives

    OpenAIRE

    Baoyu Ma

    2015-01-01

    This study mainly analyzes the essential features of food additives technology from the angle of philosophy, explaining the essential characteristics of food additives technology. As for the attitude towards the application of food additives, it is influenced by the public's gender, age, educational level, occupation and monthly expenditure for buying non-staple food and other variables, thus, the attitude towards food additives and green food, as well as the attitude towards using artificial...

  8. The dilemma of allergy to food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahna, Sami L; Burkhardt, Joshua G

    2018-01-01

    To provide a brief summary on food additives and to outline a practical approach for evaluating subjects suspected of having reactions to food additives. Information was derived from selected reviews and original articles published in peer-reviewed journals, supplemented by the clinical experience of the authors. Priority was given to studies that used blinded, placebo controlled, oral challenges to confirm adverse reactions to food additives. In addition, selected, appropriately evaluated case reports were included. A large number of food additives are widely used in the food industry. Allergic reactions to additives seem to be rare but are very likely underdiagnosed, primarily due to a low index of suspicion. A wide variety of symptoms to food additives have been reported, but a cause-and-effect relationship has not been well documented in the majority of cases. Reactions to food additives should be suspected in patients who report symptoms related to multiple foods or to a certain food when commercially prepared but not when home made. It is also prudent to investigate food additives in subjects considered to have "idiopathic" reactions. Except for a limited number of natural additives, there is a small role for skin tests or in vitro testing. Oral challenge, in stages, with commonly used additives is the definitive procedure for detecting the offending agent. Once the specific additive is identified, management is strict avoidance, which can be difficult.

  9. Enabling Technologies for Medium Additive Manufacturing (MAAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Bradley S. [ORNL; Love, Lonnie J. [ORNL; Chesser, Phillip C. [ORNL; Miller, Jason [Cosine Additive, Inc.; McCalip, Andrew [Cosine Additive, Inc.

    2018-02-01

    ORNL has worked with Cosine Additive, Inc. on the design of MAAM extrusion components. The objective is to improve the print speed and part quality. A pellet extruder has been procured and integrated into the MAAM printer. Print speed has been greatly enhanced. In addition, ORNL and Cosine Additive have worked on alternative designs for a pellet drying and feed system.

  10. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  11. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  12. WHO risk communication seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)

  13. Additive operator-difference schemes splitting schemes

    CERN Document Server

    Vabishchevich, Petr N

    2013-01-01

    Applied mathematical modeling isconcerned with solving unsteady problems. This bookshows how toconstruct additive difference schemes to solve approximately unsteady multi-dimensional problems for PDEs. Two classes of schemes are highlighted: methods of splitting with respect to spatial variables (alternating direction methods) and schemes of splitting into physical processes. Also regionally additive schemes (domain decomposition methods)and unconditionally stable additive schemes of multi-component splitting are considered for evolutionary equations of first and second order as well as for sy

  14. Biocompatibility of photopolymers for additive manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt Stefan; Klare Martin; Scheer Maurice; Fischer Theresa; Cordes Burghard; Eblenkamp Markus

    2016-01-01

    To establish photopolymers for the production of class II or class III medical products by additive manufacturing it is essential to know which components of photopolymeric systems, consisting of monomers, photoinitiators and additives, are the determining factors on their biocompatible properties. In this study the leachable substances of a cured photopolymeric system were eluted and identified by HPLC-MS detection. In addition the cured photopolymer was testes for cytotoxicity and genotoxic...

  15. Harnessing the Potential of Additive Manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    31 Defense AT&L: November-December 2016 Harnessing the Potential of Additive Manufacturing Bill Decker Decker is director of Technology...achieve its goal of competition throughout the acquisition life cycle. When we look at additive manufacturing , we have a much different environment. To...Titanium-6 Aluminum-4 Vanadium with Powder Bed Fusion. This specification covers additively manufactured titanium-6 aluminum-4 vanadium (Ti-6Al-4V

  16. Additives in food and their properties

    OpenAIRE

    TYLOVÁ, Kristýna

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this work is to deepen the knowledge about additives in foods, the importance of technological additives in foods, their properties and effects on human health. The aim of this work is a study of technical and scientific literature on the topic: "additives in foods and their properties" and review of the literature. Also in the practical part, implementation and evaluation of a questionnaire survey of the experimental group related to the topic: "Validation and comparison of knowle...

  17. Merits and Demerits of Food Additives

    OpenAIRE

    YANG, Xuening; ZHAN, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Food additive is a double-edged sword. It has merits and demerits. Food additives have such merits as improving sensory properties of foods, preventing deterioration and extending the shelf life, increasing varieties of foods, enhancing convenience of foods, facilitating food processing, and satisfying other demands. However, excessive and illegal use of food additives will exert adverse influence on food security. Therefore, it is required to take proper measures to bring merits of food addi...

  18. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Merits and Demerits of Food Additives

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xuening; YANG; Yong; ZHAN

    2014-01-01

    Food additive is a double-edged sword. It has merits and demerits. Food additives have such merits as improving sensory properties of foods,preventing deterioration and extending the shelf life,increasing varieties of foods,enhancing convenience of foods,facilitating food processing,and satisfying other demands. However,excessive and illegal use of food additives will exert adverse influence on food security.Therefore,it is required to take proper measures to bring merits of food additives into full play,and get rid of their demerits.

  20. Allergic and immunologic reactions to food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gultekin, Fatih; Doguc, Duygu Kumbul

    2013-08-01

    For centuries, food additives have been used for flavouring, colouring and extension of the useful shelf life of food, as well as the promotion of food safety. During the last 20 years, the studies implicating the additives contained in foods and medicine as a causative factor of allergic reactions have been proliferated considerably. In this review, we aimed to overview all of the food additives which were approved to consume in EU and find out how common and serious allergic reactions come into existence following the consuming of food additives.

  1. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  2. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  3. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  4. RELATIONSHIPS AMONG COMPONENTS OF ENGAGEMENT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EVREN DILEK SENGUR

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Accounting scandals exploded at the beginning of 2000s and the collapse of Arthur Andersen highlighted the importance of implementing engagement risk management strategies in audit firms. Engagement risk refers the overall risk associated with an audit engagement and it consists of three components: client's business risk, auditor's business risk, and audit risk. The main purpose of this study is to describe each components of engagement risk and explain relations among them. Additionally, the paper points out the importance of engagement risk management throughout the audit and demonstrates engagement risk management strategies at client acceptance/ continuance, planning and completion of audit.

  5. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  6. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  7. Fatores adicionais de risco cardiovascular associados ao excesso de peso em crianças e adolescentes: o estudo do coração de Belo Horizonte Additional cardiovascular risk factors associated with excess weigth in children and adolescents: the Belo Horizonte heart study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robespierre Q. C. Ribeiro

    2006-06-01

    a 3.7 times higher risk (odds ratio of having elevated TC levels. Overweight and obese students had a 3.6 times higher risk of having elevated systolic blood pressure, and a 2.7 times higher risk of elevated diastolic blood pressure when compared to normal weight students. The less active students in the Q1 of distribution of MET presented a 3.8 times higher risk of having elevated TC levels compared to those who were more active (Q4. CONCLUSION: Students who were overweight, obese or in the upper quartiles for other adiposity variables, as well as students with low levels of physical activity or a sedentary lifestyle presented higher blood pressure levels and a lipid profile indicative of an increased risk of developing atherosclerosis.

  8. The visual communication of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

    1999-01-01

    This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

  9. 78 FR 34351 - Procurement List; Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-07

    .... ADDRESSES: Committee for Purchase from People Who are Blind or Severely Disabled, 1401 S. Clark Street... COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED Procurement List; Additions AGENCY: Committee for Purchase from People Who are Blind or Severely Disabled. ACTION: Additions to the...

  10. Additive Manufacturing for Low Volume Bearings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tate, John G. [Schaeffler Group USA, Spartanburg, SC (United States); Richardson, Bradley S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Love, Lonnie J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-09-01

    ORNL worked with the Schaeffler Group USA to explore additive manufacturing techniques that might be appropriate for prototyping of bearing cages. Multiple additive manufacturing techniques were investigated, including e-beam, binder jet and multiple laser based processes. The binder jet process worked best for the thin, detailed cages printed.

  11. 48 CFR 1603.7002 - Additional guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Additional guidelines. 1603.7002 Section 1603.7002 Federal Acquisition Regulations System OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT FEDERAL... OF INTEREST Misleading, Deceptive, or Unfair Advertising 1603.7002 Additional guidelines. Any...

  12. 18 CFR 33.10 - Additional information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Additional information. 33.10 Section 33.10 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... § 33.10 Additional information. The Director of the Office of Energy Market Regulation, or his designee...

  13. Additives In Meat and Poultry Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fact Sheets / Additives in Meat and Poultry Products / Additives in Meat and Poultry Products Z7_0Q0619C0JGR010IFST1G5B10H3 ... Affairs Recalls and Public Health Alerts Regulatory Compliance Regulations, Directives and Notices Rulemaking ...

  14. Feed Additives for Aquaculture and Aquarium Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Barata, Eduardo N.; Velez, Zélia

    2011-01-01

    The presente invention refers of feed additives for aquaculture and aquarium culture. These additives comprise the amino acid, 1-methyl-L-tryptophane, or its isomers with the objective of improving the attractiveness of feeds used in aquaculture and aquaria for fish, as well as other aquatic organisms, under culture conditions. Therefore, this invention has applications in the agriculture-food industry.

  15. 77 FR 41899 - Indirect Food Additives: Polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 177 [Docket No. FDA-2012-F-0031] Indirect Food Additives: Polymers AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... CFR part 177 is amended as follows: PART 177--INDIRECT FOOD ADDITIVES: POLYMERS 0 1. The authority...

  16. Photoactive devices including porphyrinoids with coordinating additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrest, Stephen R; Zimmerman, Jeramy; Yu, Eric K; Thompson, Mark E; Trinh, Cong; Whited, Matthew; Diev, Vlacheslav

    2015-05-12

    Coordinating additives are included in porphyrinoid-based materials to promote intermolecular organization and improve one or more photoelectric characteristics of the materials. The coordinating additives are selected from fullerene compounds and organic compounds having free electron pairs. Combinations of different coordinating additives can be used to tailor the characteristic properties of such porphyrinoid-based materials, including porphyrin oligomers. Bidentate ligands are one type of coordinating additive that can form coordination bonds with a central metal ion of two different porphyrinoid compounds to promote porphyrinoid alignment and/or pi-stacking. The coordinating additives can shift the absorption spectrum of a photoactive material toward higher wavelengths, increase the external quantum efficiency of the material, or both.

  17. Implementation of the Additional Protocol in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, T.

    2001-01-01

    The Additional Protocol between Japan and the IAEA entered into force in December 1999. To come into force a series of implementation trials of Additional Protocol was carried out at two Japanese representative nuclear research centers, i.e. Tokai Research Establishment of Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and Oarai Engineering Center of Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute (JNC). These trials were proposed by Japan and were conducted in cooperation with the IAEA Secretariat. In addition, Japan amended 'the Law for the Regulation of Reactors etc.', to collect adequate information to submit to the IAEA, to arrange the surrounding for the complementary access, etc. In addition, Japan Submitted the Initial Declaration of the Additional Protocol within 180 days of the entry into force of the Protocol, in the middle of June, 2000

  18. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  19. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  20. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  1. Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsui, Seiichiro

    2003-06-01

    In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

  2. [Effect of biochar addition on soil evaporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Niu, Wen Quan; Zhang, Ming Zhi; Li, Yuan; Lyu, Wang; Li, Kang-Yong; Zou, Xiao-Yang; Liang, Bo-Hui

    2016-11-18

    In order to determine the rational amount of biochar application and its effect on soil hydrological processes in arid area, soil column experiments were conducted in the laboratory using three biochar additions (5%, 10% and 15%) and four different biochar types (devaporation. The results showed that the addition of biochar could change the phreatic water recharge, soil water-holding capacity, capillary water upward movement and soil evaporation obviously. But the effects were different depending on the type of biochar raw material and the size of particle. The phreatic water recharge increased with the increasing amount of biochar addition. The addition of biochar could obviously enlarge the soil water-holding capacity and promote the capillary water upward movement rate. This effect was greater when using the material of bamboo charcoal compared with using wood charcoal, while biochar with small particle size had greater impact than that with big particle size. The biochar could effectively restrain the soil evaporation at a low addition amount (5%). But it definitely promoted the soil evaporation if the addition amount was very high. In arid area, biochar addition in appropriate amount could improve soil water retention capacity.

  3. Graphite and Hybrid Nanomaterials as Lubricant Additives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu J. Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Lubricant additives, based on inorganic nanoparticles coated with organic outer layer, can reduce wear and increase load-carrying capacity of base oil remarkably, indicating the great potential of hybrid nanoparticles as anti-wear and extreme-pressure additives with excellent levels of performance. The organic part in the hybrid materials improves their flexibility and stability, while the inorganic part is responsible for hardness. The relationship between the design parameters of the organic coatings, such as molecular architecture and the lubrication performance, however, remains to be fully elucidated. A survey of current understanding of hybrid nanoparticles as lubricant additives is presented in this review.

  4. Additional symmetries of supersymmetric KP hierarchies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanciu, S.

    1993-09-01

    We investigate the additional symmetries of several supersymmetric KP hierarchies: The SKP hierarchy of Manin and Radul, the SKP 2 hierarchy, and the Jacobian SKP hierarchy. The main technical tool is the supersymmetric generalisation of a map originally due to Radul between the Lie algebra of superdifferential operators and the Lie algebra of vector fields on the space of supersymmetric Lax operators. In the case of the Manin-Radul SKP hierarchy we identify additional symmetries which form an algebra isomorphic to a subalgebra of superdifferential operators; whereas in the case of the Jacobian SKP, the (additional) symmetries are identified with the algebra itself. (orig.)

  5. Risk premium and insalubrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portela, Josmael; Figueira, Rosania Lucia

    2005-01-01

    The risk premium and insalubrity have been widely discussed in the legal universe/labor. The social and economic impacts interfere on the right of the professional exposed to ionizing radiation to have or not additional rights. Due to the large accidents, with world repercussion, which occurred in recent times, involving workers undergoing these radiation, these professionals are receiving special attention by the competent bodies on the right or not to risk premium and insalubrity. The professional who operates equipment that emit ionising radiation, or those working directly with radioisotopes are undoubtedly under imminent risk, even if they complied with all safety requirements, thus deserving a more careful analysis by our lawyers with respect to receive additional percentages. Recent decisions of higher Courts begin to consolidate a more just and logical reasoning on the subject

  6. Bivariate value-at-risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we extend the concept of Value-at-risk (VaR to bivariate return distributions in order to obtain measures of the market risk of an asset taking into account additional features linked to downside risk exposure. We first present a general definition of risk as the probability of an adverse event over a random distribution and we then introduce a measure of market risk (b-VaR that admits the traditional b of an asset in portfolio management as a special case when asset returns are normally distributed. Empirical evidences are provided by using Italian stock market data.

  7. Indoor Tanning: The Risks of Ultraviolet Rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... rays damage the skin and can lead to skin cancer. Tanning salons use lamps that emit both UV-A ... Risks In addition to the serious risk of skin cancer, tanning can cause: Premature aging . Tanning causes the skin ...

  8. Chemical stabilization of polymers: Implications for dermal exposure to additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, N; Girard, M; Schneider, L; Weijgert, V Van De; Wilde, A; Kappenstein, O; Vieth, B; Hutzler, C; Luch, A

    2018-04-16

    Technical benefits of additives in polymers stand in marked contrast to their associated health risks. Here, a multi-analyte method based on gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) was developed to quantify polymer additives in complex matrices such as low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and isolated human skin layers after dermal exposure ex vivo. That way both technical aspects and dermal exposure were investigated. The effects of polymer additivation on the material were studied using the example of LDPE. To this end, a tailor-made polymer was applied in aging studies that had been furnished with two different mixtures of phenol- and diarylamine-based antioxidants, plasticizers and processing aids. Upon accelerated thermo-oxidative aging of the material, the formation of LDPE degradation products was monitored with attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transformed infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. Compared to pure LDPE, a protective effect of added antioxidants could be observed on the integrity of the polymer. Further, thermo-oxidative degradation of the additives and its kinetics were investigated using LDPE or squalane as matrix. The half-lives of additives in both matrices revealed significant differences between the tested additives as well as between LDPE and squalane. For instance, 2-tert-butyl-6-[(3-tert-butyl-2-hydroxy-5-methylphenyl)methyl]-4-methylphenol (Antioxidant 2246) showed a half-life 12 times lower when incorporated in LDPE as compared to squalane. As a model for dermal exposure of consumers, human skin was brought into contact with the tailor-made LDPE containing additives ex vivo in static Franz diffusion cells. The skin was then analyzed for additives and decomposition products. This study proved 10 polymer additives of diverse pysicochemical properties and functionalities to migrate out of the polymer and eventually overcome the intact human skin barrier during contact. Moreover, their individual distribution within

  9. 78 FR 38953 - Procurement List Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-28

    ... Blind or Severely Disabled published notices of proposed additions to the Procurement List. After... Punch, Paper, Desktop, 3-Hole, Adjustable, 11 sheet capacity, Metallic Base, Black Grip. Coverage: A...

  10. 78 FR 12295 - Procurement List; Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-22

    ... published notices of proposed additions to the Procurement List. After consideration of the material..., 508 Compliant, 12 Digit, Portable, Desktop, Battery Operated NPA: MidWest Enterprises for the Blind...

  11. Laser-based additive manufacturing of metals

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kumar, S

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available For making metallic products through Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes, laser-based systems play very significant roles. Laser-based processes such as Selective Laser Melting (SLM) and Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) are dominating processes...

  12. Additively Manufactured Ceramic Rocket Engine Components

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — HRL Laboratories, LLC, with Vector Space Systems (VSS) as subcontractor, has a 24-month effort to develop additive manufacturing technology for reinforced ceramic...

  13. 7 CFR 955.91 - Additional parties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Marketing Agreement § 955.91 Additional parties. After the effective date thereof, any handler may become a... Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... then be effective as to such new contracting party. ...

  14. Nonparametric additive regression for repeatedly measured data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, R. J.; Maity, A.; Mammen, E.; Yu, K.

    2009-01-01

    We develop an easily computed smooth backfitting algorithm for additive model fitting in repeated measures problems. Our methodology easily copes with various settings, such as when some covariates are the same over repeated response measurements

  15. Caustic addition system operability test procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parazin, R.E.

    1994-11-01

    This test procedure provides instructions for performing operational testing of the major components of the 241-AN-107 Caustic Addition System by WHC and Kaiser personnel at the Rotating Equipment Shop run-in pit (Bldg. 272E).

  16. Caustic addition system operability test procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parazin, R.E.

    1994-11-01

    This test procedure provides instructions for performing operational testing of the major components of the 241-AN-107 Caustic Addition System by WHC and Kaiser personnel at the Rotating Equipment Shop run-in pit (Bldg. 272E)

  17. 78 FR 40727 - Procurement List; Proposed Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-08

    ... for addition to the Procurement List for production by the nonprofit agencies listed: Products Towel.... 12/BX Cleaner, Brake Parts NSN: 6850-01-167-0678--17 oz. NPA: The Lighthouse for the Blind, St. Louis...

  18. 78 FR 35874 - Procurement List; Proposed Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-14

    ... proposed for addition to the Procurement List for production by the nonprofit agencies listed: Products... Cleaner NPA: Winston-Salem Industries for the Blind, Inc., Winston-Salem, NC Contracting Activity: Defense...

  19. Characterizing Polymer Powders used in Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bajric, Sendin [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-16

    These are a set of slides that give the personal background of the author, information about his LANL organization, and information about his internship project at LANL about additive manufacturing and selective laser sintering (SLS).

  20. Additive Manufacturing of Magnesium (Mg) Alloys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed work is to investigate additive manufacturing techniques for Mg alloys.  It will leverage off research being conducted at University of Florida and...

  1. 78 FR 9386 - Procurement List; Addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-08

    ... Purchase From People Who Are Blind or Severely Disabled published notice of proposed addition to the...: Enterprise Professional Services, Inc., Austin, TX Contracting Activity: Dept of the Army, W40M USA MEDCOM...

  2. 77 FR 55195 - Procurement List; Additions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-07

    ... Purchase From People Who Are Blind or Severely Disabled published notice of proposed additions to the... Harmon Avenue, Fort Stewart, GA. NPA: Professional Contract Services, Inc., Austin, TX. Contracting...

  3. Additional symmetries of supersymmetric KP hierarchies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanciu, S.

    1994-01-01

    We investigate the additional symmetries of several supersymmetric KP hierarchies: the SKP hierarchy of Manin and Radul, the SKP 2 hierarchy, and the Jacobian SKP hierarchy. In all three cases we find that the algebra of symmetries is isomorphic to the algebra of superdifferential operators, or equivalently SW 1+∞ . These results seem to suggest that despite their realization depending on the dynamics, the additional symmetries are kinematical in nature. (orig.)

  4. Additive Manufacturing in the Marine Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    TERMS additive manufacturing, 3D printing, improving logistics 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 123 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT...One such method is ultrasonic agglomeration. The process produces compact snack items that are nutrient-dense and shelf-stable. Currently Army...possess outdated technology. Additionally, prices for the printers are dropping significantly.202 Therefore, the Marine Corps will not only have outdated

  5. Challenges in Additive Manufacturing of Alumina

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    Additive manufacturing is seen by many as the holy grail of manufacturing, the ability to produce parts nearly autonomously. Adding material rather than removing it would eliminate the need for expensive resources and machining. The recent expiration of key 3D printing patents has led to many advances in the field and has dramatically lowered the prices of 3D printers, making them accessible to the average individual. The one area where additive manufacturing is still in its infancy is in cer...

  6. Design and additive manufacture for flow chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, Andrew J; Edmondson, Steve; Christie, Steven D R; Goodridge, Ruth D; Bibb, Richard J; Thurstans, Matthew

    2013-12-07

    We review the use of additive manufacturing (AM) as a novel manufacturing technique for the production of milli-scale reactor systems. Five well-developed additive manufacturing techniques: stereolithography (SL), multi-jet modelling (MJM), selective laser melting (SLM), laser sintering (LS) and fused deposition modelling (FDM) were used to manufacture a number of miniaturised reactors which were tested using a range of organic and inorganic reactions.

  7. Material Database for Additive Manufacturing Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    components in the field. II. BACKGROUND Additive manufacturing is a rapidly maturing process by which digital 3-D design data are used to build up...improves readiness by offering on-demand low-rate production [8, 9]. 3-D printing also enables rapid design iterations and complexity, which improve...abundant in additive manufacturing , allowing design freedom that is only limited by the material strength requirements. A set of eight conductive

  8. Evaluation of certain food additives and contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    This report represents the conclusions of a Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee convened to evaluate the safety of various food additives and a food contaminant with a view to concluding as to safety concerns and to preparing specifications for identity and purity. The first part of the report contains a general discussion of the principles governing the toxicological evaluation of and assessment of dietary exposure to food additives. A summary follows of the Committee's evaluations of technical, toxicological and dietary exposure data for seven food additives (advantame; glucoamylase from Trichoderma reesei expressed in Trichoderma reesei; glycerol ester of gum rosin; glycerol ester of tall oil rosin; glycerol ester of wood rosin; nisin; and octenyl succinic acid modified gum arabic) and an assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium from cocoa and cocoa products. Specifications for the following food additives were revised: annatto extracts (solvent-extracted bixin and solvent-extracted norbixin); Benzoe tonkinensis; food additives containing aluminium and/or silicon; mineral oil (medium viscosity); modified starches; paprika extract; phosphates (analytical methods for the determination of phosphorus and revision of specifications); 3-phytase from Aspergillus niger expressed in Aspergillus niger; potassium aluminium silicate; and potassium aluminium silicate-based pearlescent pigments. Annexed to the report are tables summarizing the Committee's recommendations for dietary exposures to and toxicological evaluations of the food additives and contaminant considered.

  9. The Development of Korea Additional Protocol System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, Hye Won; Yeo, Jin Kyun

    2008-01-01

    The Agreement between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the IAEA for the Application of Safeguards in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (the Safeguards Agreement) entered into force on 14 November 1975. The Additional Protocol to the Safeguards Agreement (the Additional Protocol) was signed on 21 June 1999 and entered into force on 19 February 2004. ROK has been submitting annual updated reports of initial declaration on every May 15th since August 2004. Additional protocol reports were submitted through Protocol Reporter provided by IAEA. Annual declarations were simply uploaded and stored in the Accounting Information Treatment System of KINAC, which did not provide data analysis and management function. There have been demands for improvement to handle ever-increasing information. KAPS (Korea Additional Protocol System) has been developed to assist and administrate the additional protocol related works effectively. The new system enables integrated management including composition of additional protocol report and version control, periodical update of related information, results of IAEA complementary access to each facility

  10. Additive effects in radiation grafting and curing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viengkhou, V.; Ng, L.

    1996-01-01

    Full text: Detailed studies on the accelerative effect of novel additives in radiation grafting and curing using acrylated monomer/oligomer systems have been performed in the presence of ionising radiation and UV as sources. Methyl methacrylate (MMA) is used as typical monomer for these grafting studies in the presence of the additives with model backbone polymers, cellulose and propropylene. Additives which have been found to accelerate these grafting processes are: mineral acid, occlusion compounds like urea, thermal initiators and photoinitiators as well as multifunctional monomers such as multifunctional acrylates. The results from irradiation with gamma rays have also been compared with irradiation from a 90W UV lamp. The role of the above additives in accelerating the analogous process of radiation curing has been investigated. Acrylated urethanes, epoxies and polyesters are used as oligomers together with acrylated monomers in this work with uv lamps of 300 watts/inch as radiation source. In the UV curing process bonding between film and substrate is usually due to physical forces. In the present work the presence of additives are shown to influence the occurrence of concurrent grafting during cure thus affecting the nature of the bonding of the cured film. The conditions under which concurrent grafting with UV can occur will be examined. A mechanism for accelerative effect of these additives in both grafting and curing processes has been proposed involving radiation effects and partitioning phenomena

  11. BFR Electrolyte Additive Safety and Flammability Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allcorn, Eric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-13

    Lithium-ion battery safety is a critical issue in the adoption of the chemistry to larger scale applications such as transportation and stationary storage. One of the critical components impacting the safety of lithium-ion batteries is their use of highly flammable organic electrolytes. In this work, brominated flame retardants (BFR’s) – an existing class of flame retardant materials – are incorporated as additives to lithium-ion battery electrolytes with the intention to reduce the electrolyte flammability and thereby improve safety. There are a few critical needs for a successful electrolyte additive: solubility in the electrolyte, electrochemical stability over the range of battery operation, and minimal detrimental effects on battery performance. Those detrimental effects can take the form of electrolyte specific impacts, such as a reduction in conductivity, or electrode impacts, such as SEI-layer modification or chemical instability to the active material. In addition to these needs, the electrolyte additive also needs to achieve its intended purpose, which in this case is to reduce the flammability of the electrolyte. For the work conducted as part of this SPP agreement three separate BFR materials were provided by Albemarle to be tested by Sandia as additives in a traditional lithium-ion battery electrolyte. The provided BFR materials were tribromo-neopentyl alcohol, tetrabromo bisphenol A, and tribromoethylene. These materials were incorporated as separate 4 wt.% additives into a traditional lithium-ion battery electrolyte and compared to said traditional electrolyte, designated Gen2.

  12. Do assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies require additional antenatal care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauniaux, E; Ben-Ami, I; Maymon, R

    2013-02-01

    Iatrogenic twinning has become the main side-effect assisted reproduction treatment. We have evaluated the evidence for additional care that assisted-reproduction twins may require compared with spontaneous twins. Misacarriages are increased in women with tubal problems and after specific treatments. Assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies complicated by a vanishing twin after 8 weeks have an increased risk of preterm delivery and of low and very low birthweight compared with singleton assisted-reproduction pregnancies. Monozygotic twin pregnancies occur at a higher rate after assisted reproduction treatment and are associated with a higher risk of perinatal complications. The incidence of placenta praevia and vasa praevia is increased in assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies. Large cohort studies do not indicate a higher rate of fetal congenital malformations in assisted-reproduction twins. Overall, assisted-reproduction twins in healthy women assisted-reproduction twins is only increased in women with a pre-existing medical condition such as hypertensive disorders and diabetes and most of these risks can be avoided with single-embryo transfer. Following the birth of the first IVF baby, rumours started to spread in both the medical literature and the media about the long-term health effects for children born following assisted reproduction treatment. However, after more than 30 years, the most common complications associated with IVF treatment remain indirect and technical such as the failure of treatment and ovarian hyperstimulation. Iatrogenic twinning has become the main side-effect of assisted reproduction treatment and the increasing number of twin pregnancies, in particular in older women, has generated numerous debates on the need for additional healthcare provision. In this review, we have evaluated the evidence for additional care that assisted-conception twin pregnancies may require compared with spontaneous twin pregnancies. Twin pregnancies are

  13. Additive Manufacturing for Robust and Affordable Medical Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Wolozny Gomez Robelo, Daniel Andre

    2016-01-01

    Additive manufacturing in the form of 3D printing is a revolutionary technology that has developed within the last two decades. Its ability to print an object with accurate features down to the micro scale have made its use in medical devices and research feasible. A range of life-saving technologies can now go from the laboratory and into field with the application of 3D-printing. This technology can be applied to medical diagnosis of patients in at-risk populations. Living biosensors a...

  14. 3D Volume Rendering and 3D Printing (Additive Manufacturing).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katkar, Rujuta A; Taft, Robert M; Grant, Gerald T

    2018-07-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) volume-rendered images allow 3D insight into the anatomy, facilitating surgical treatment planning and teaching. 3D printing, additive manufacturing, and rapid prototyping techniques are being used with satisfactory accuracy, mostly for diagnosis and surgical planning, followed by direct manufacture of implantable devices. The major limitation is the time and money spent generating 3D objects. Printer type, material, and build thickness are known to influence the accuracy of printed models. In implant dentistry, the use of 3D-printed surgical guides is strongly recommended to facilitate planning and reduce risk of operative complications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  16. [Chemical risk in farming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

  17. Additive manufacturing in production: challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, Bhrigu; Karg, Michael; Schmidt, Michael

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing, characterized by its inherent layer by layer fabrication methodology has been coined by many as the latest revolution in the manufacturing industry. Due to its diversification of Materials, processes, system technology and applications, Additive Manufacturing has been synonymized with terminology such as Rapid prototyping, 3D printing, free-form fabrication, Additive Layer Manufacturing, etc. A huge media and public interest in the technology has led to an innovative attempt of exploring the technology for applications beyond the scope of the traditional engineering industry. Nevertheless, it is believed that a critical factor for the long-term success of Additive Manufacturing would be its ability to fulfill the requirements defined by the traditional manufacturing industry. A parallel development in market trends and product requirements has also lead to a wider scope of opportunities for Additive Manufacturing. The presented paper discusses some of the key challenges which are critical to ensure that Additive Manufacturing is truly accepted as a mainstream production technology in the industry. These challenges would highlight on various aspects of production such as product requirements, process management, data management, intellectual property, work flow management, quality assurance, resource planning, etc. In Addition, changing market trends such as product life cycle, mass customization, sustainability, environmental impact and localized production will form the foundation for the follow up discussion on the current limitations and the corresponding research opportunities. A discussion on ongoing research to address these challenges would include topics like process monitoring, design complexity, process standardization, multi-material and hybrid fabrication, new material development, etc.

  18. RISK ANALYSES USED IN ACCEPTANCE TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oxana STOROJ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is talking about risk based testing approach in user acceptance testing UAT (User Acceptance Testing. There are presented definitions of risk and risk based testing. In addition, we are talking about risks that can appear during UAT and we are describing the process of testing based on risks. We propose some techniques and methods of identifying risks such as using Brainstorming, Delphi method,probability analysis method and others. Also, risk traceability matrix is presented as a method of prioritizing risks.

  19. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  20. Study of zirconium-addition binary systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wozniakova, B.; Kuchar, L.

    1975-01-01

    The curves are given of the solid and the liquid of binary zirconium-addition systems. Most additions reduce the melting temperature of zirconium. The only known additions to increase the melting temperature are nitrogen, oxygen and hafnium. Also given are the transformation curves of the systems and the elements are given which reduce or raise the temperature of α-β transformation. From the Mendeleev table into which are plotted the curves of the solid and the liquid of binary systems it is possible to predict the properties of unknown binary systems. For the calculations of the curves of the solid and the liquid, 1860 degC was taken as the temperature of zirconium melting. For the calculations of transformation curves, 865 degC was taken as the temperature of α-β transformation. The equations are given of the curves of the solid and the liquid and of the transformation curves of some Zr-addition systems. Also given are the calculated equilibrium distribution coefficients and the equilibrium distribution coefficients of the transformation of additions in Zr and their limit values for temperatures approximating the melting point or the temperature of the transformation of pure Zr, and the values pertaining to eutectic and peritectic or eutectoid and peritectoid temperatures. (J.B.)

  1. Laser polishing of additive manufactured Ti alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. P.; Guan, Y. C.; Zhou, W.

    2017-06-01

    Laser-based additive manufacturing has attracted much attention as a promising 3D printing method for metallic components in recent years. However, surface roughness of additive manufactured components has been considered as a challenge to achieve high performance. In this work, we demonstrate the capability of fiber laser in polishing rough surface of additive manufactured Ti-based alloys as Ti-6Al-4V and TC11. Both as-received surface and laser-polished surfaces as well as cross-section subsurfaces were analyzed carefully by White-Light Interference, Confocal Microscope, Focus Ion Beam, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive Spectrometer, and X-ray Diffraction. Results revealed that as-received Ti-based alloys with surface roughness more than 5 μm could be reduce to less than 1 μm through laser polishing process. Moreover, microstructure, microhardness and wear resistance of laser-polished zone was investigated in order to examine the thermal effect of laser polishing processing on the substrate of additive manufactured Ti alloys. This proof-of-concept process has the potential to effectively improve the surface roughness of additive manufactured metallic alloy by local polishing method without damage to the substrate.

  2. Terminal addition in a cellular world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torday, J S; Miller, William B

    2018-07-01

    Recent advances in our understanding of evolutionary development permit a reframed appraisal of Terminal Addition as a continuous historical process of cellular-environmental complementarity. Within this frame of reference, evolutionary terminal additions can be identified as environmental induction of episodic adjustments to cell-cell signaling patterns that yield the cellular-molecular pathways that lead to differing developmental forms. Phenotypes derive, thereby, through cellular mutualistic/competitive niche constructions in reciprocating responsiveness to environmental stresses and epigenetic impacts. In such terms, Terminal Addition flows according to a logic of cellular needs confronting environmental challenges over space-time. A reconciliation of evolutionary development and Terminal Addition can be achieved through a combined focus on cell-cell signaling, molecular phylogenies and a broader understanding of epigenetic phenomena among eukaryotic organisms. When understood in this manner, Terminal Addition has an important role in evolutionary development, and chronic disease might be considered as a form of 'reverse evolution' of the self-same processes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Non-additive Effects in Genomic Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Varona

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade, genomic selection has become a standard in the genetic evaluation of livestock populations. However, most procedures for the implementation of genomic selection only consider the additive effects associated with SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism markers used to calculate the prediction of the breeding values of candidates for selection. Nevertheless, the availability of estimates of non-additive effects is of interest because: (i they contribute to an increase in the accuracy of the prediction of breeding values and the genetic response; (ii they allow the definition of mate allocation procedures between candidates for selection; and (iii they can be used to enhance non-additive genetic variation through the definition of appropriate crossbreeding or purebred breeding schemes. This study presents a review of methods for the incorporation of non-additive genetic effects into genomic selection procedures and their potential applications in the prediction of future performance, mate allocation, crossbreeding, and purebred selection. The work concludes with a brief outline of some ideas for future lines of that may help the standard inclusion of non-additive effects in genomic selection.

  4. Additive Manufacturing of Metastable Beta Titanium Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannetta, Christopher J.

    Additive manufacturing processes of many alloys are known to develop texture during the deposition process due to the rapid reheating and the directionality of the dissipation of heat. Titanium alloys and with respect to this study beta titanium alloys are especially susceptible to these effects. This work examines Ti-20wt%V and Ti-12wt%Mo deposited under normal additive manufacturing process parameters to examine the texture of these beta-stabilized alloys. Both microstructures contained columnar prior beta grains 1-2 mm in length beginning at the substrate with no visible equiaxed grains. This microstructure remained constant in the vanadium system throughout the build. The microstructure of the alloy containing molybdenum changed from a columnar to an equiaxed structure as the build height increased. Eighteen additional samples of the Ti-Mo system were created under different processing parameters to identify what role laser power and travel speed have on the microstructure. There appears to be a correlation in alpha lath size and power density. The two binary alloys were again deposited under the same conditions with the addition of 0.5wt% boron to investigate the effects an insoluble interstitial alloying element would have on the microstructure. The size of the prior beta grains in these two alloys were reduced with the addition of boron by approximately 50 (V) and 100 (Mo) times.

  5. Fuel and Additive Characterization for HCCI Combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aceves, S M; Flowers, D; Martinez-Frias, J; Espinosa-Loza, F; Pitz, W J; Dibble, R

    2003-01-01

    This paper shows a numerical evaluation of fuels and additives for HCCl combustion. First, a long list of candidate HCCl fuels is selected. For all the fuels in the list, operating conditions (compression ratio, equivalence ratio and intake temperature) are determined that result in optimum performance under typical operation for a heavy-duty engine. Fuels are also characterized by presenting Log(p)-Log(T) maps for multiple fuels under HCCl conditions. Log(p)-Log(T) maps illustrate important processes during HCCl engine operation, including compression, low temperature heat release and ignition. Log(p)-Log(T) diagrams can be used for visualizing these processes and can be used as a tool for detailed analysis of HCCl combustion. The paper also includes a ranking of many potential additives. Experiments and analyses have indicated that small amounts (a few parts per million) of secondary fuels (additives) may considerably affect HCCl combustion and may play a significant role in controlling HCCl combustion. Additives are ranked according to their capability to advance HCCl ignition. The best additives are listed and an explanation of their effect on HCCl combustion is included

  6. Excessive Additive Effect On Engine Oil Viscosity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Kumbár

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is excessive additive (for oil filling effect on engine oil dynamic viscosity. Research is focused to commercially distribute automotive engine oil with viscosity class 15W–40 designed for vans. There were prepared blends of new and used engine oil without and with oil additive in specific ratio according manufacturer’s recommendations. Dynamic viscosity of blends with additive was compared with pure new and pure used engine oil. The temperature dependence dynamic viscosity of samples was evaluated by using rotary viscometer with standard spindle. Concern was that the oil additive can moves engine oil of several viscosity grades up. It is able to lead to failure in the engine. Mathematical models were used for fitting experimental values of dynamic viscosity. Exponential fit function was selected, which was very accurate because the coefficient of determination R2 achieved high values (0.98–0.99. These models are able to predict viscosity behaviour blends of engine oil and additive.

  7. Biocompatibility of photopolymers for additive manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonhardt Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To establish photopolymers for the production of class II or class III medical products by additive manufacturing it is essential to know which components of photopolymeric systems, consisting of monomers, photoinitiators and additives, are the determining factors on their biocompatible properties. In this study the leachable substances of a cured photopolymeric system were eluted and identified by HPLC-MS detection. In addition the cured photopolymer was testes for cytotoxicity and genotoxicity according to DIN EN ISO 10993 for long time applications. The results showed that uncured residual monomers are the determining factor on the biocompatible properties of the photopolymeric system. Strategies to reduce these residual monomers in the cured photopolymer are presented.

  8. Non-additive measures theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Narukawa, Yasuo; Sugeno, Michio; 9th International Conference on Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence (MDAI 2012)

    2014-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive and timely report in the area of non-additive measures and integrals. It is based on a panel session on fuzzy measures, fuzzy integrals and aggregation operators held during the 9th International Conference on Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence (MDAI 2012) in Girona, Spain, November 21-23, 2012. The book complements the MDAI 2012 proceedings book, published in Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS) in 2012. The individual chapters, written by key researchers in the field, cover fundamental concepts and important definitions (e.g. the Sugeno integral, definition of entropy for non-additive measures) as well some important applications (e.g. to economics and game theory) of non-additive measures and integrals. The book addresses students, researchers and practitioners working at the forefront of their field.  

  9. Additive Manufacturing of Shape Memory Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Humbeeck, Jan

    2018-04-01

    Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing production process, also called 3D printing, in which functional, complex parts are produced by selectively melting patterns in consecutive layers of powder with a laser beam. The pattern the laser beam is following is controlled by software that calculates the pattern by slicing a 3D CAD model of the part to be constructed. Apart from SLM, also other additive manufacturing techniques such as EBM (Electron Beam Melting), FDM (Fused Deposition Modelling), WAAM (Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing), LENS (Laser Engineered Net Shaping such as Laser Cladding) and binder jetting allow to construct complete parts layer upon layer. But since more experience of AM of shape memory alloys is collected by SLM, this paper will overview the potentials, limits and problems of producing NiTi parts by SLM.

  10. Effects from additives on deacetylation of chitin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campana Filho, Sergio P.; Signini, Roberta

    2001-01-01

    Deacetylation reactions of commercial chitin were carried out in aqueous sodium hydroxide solution at 115 deg C for 6 hours. The effect from additives (sodium borohydride or anthraquinone) and of bubbling inert gas (nitrogen or argon) on the characteristics of deacetylated samples were evaluated. Average degrees of acetylation and intrinsic viscosity were determined by 1 H NMR spectroscopy and capillary viscometry, respectively. X-ray diffraction was employed to evaluate changes in crystallinity and infrared spectroscopy was used to monitor structural changes due to deacetylation. The bubbling of inert gas during the deacetylation reaction resulted in more crystalline samples of chitosan. Deacetylation carried out without any additive produced slightly more deacetylated chitosan but they were severely depolymerized. The depolymerization process was much less important when sodium borohydride was added to the reaction medium but the addition of anthraquinone and the bubbling of nitrogen, or argon, did not have any effect, this suggests that oxygen is not required for depolymerization. (author)

  11. Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, John

    2015-01-01

    The Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME) project is developing technology to build structures on planetary surfaces using in-situ resources. The project focuses on the construction of both 2D (landing pads, roads, and structure foundations) and 3D (habitats, garages, radiation shelters, and other structures) infrastructure needs for planetary surface missions. The ACME project seeks to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of two components needed for planetary surface habitation and exploration: 3D additive construction (e.g., contour crafting), and excavation and handling technologies (to effectively and continuously produce in-situ feedstock). Additionally, the ACME project supports the research and development of new materials for planetary surface construction, with the goal of reducing the amount of material to be launched from Earth.

  12. Evaluation of Advanced Polymers for Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rios, Orlando [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carter, William G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kutchko, Cindy [PPG Industries, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Fenn, David [PPG Industries, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Olson, Kurt [PPG Industries, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2017-09-08

    The goal of this Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) technical collaboration project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) was to evaluate the feasibility of using conventional coatings chemistry and technology to build up material layer-by-layer. The PPG-ORNL study successfully demonstrated that polymeric coatings formulations may overcome many limitations of common thermoplastics used in additive manufacturing (AM), allow lightweight nozzle design for material deposition, and increase build rate. The materials effort focused on layer-by-layer deposition of coatings with each layer fusing together. The combination of materials and deposition results in an additively manufactured build that has sufficient mechanical properties to bear the load of additional layers, yet is capable of bonding across the z-layers to improve build direction strength. The formulation properties were tuned to enable a novel, high-throughput deposition method that is highly scalable, compatible with high loading of reinforcing fillers, and inherently low-cost.

  13. Transfer of Training in Simple Addition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yalin; Campbell, Jamie I D

    2017-04-18

    In recent years several researchers have proposed that skilled adults may solve single-digit addition problems (e.g. 3 + 1 = 4, 4 + 3 = 7) using a fast counting procedure. Practicing a procedure, often leads to transfer of learning and faster performance of unpracticed items. Such transfer has been demonstrated using a counting-based alphabet arithmetic task (e.g., B + 4 = C D E F) that indicated robust generalization of practice (i.e., RT gains) when untrained transfer problems at test had been implicitly practiced (e.g., practice B + 3, test B + 2 or B + 1). Here we constructed analogous simple addition problems (practice 4 + 3, test 4 + 2 or 4 + 1). In each of three experiments (total n = 108) participants received six practice blocks followed by two test blocks of new problems to examine generalization effects. Practice of addition identity-rule problems (i.e., 0 + N = N) showed complete transfer of RT gains made during practice to unpracticed items at test. In contrast, the addition ties (2 + 2, 3 + 3, etc.) presented large RT costs for unpracticed problems at test, but sped up substantially in the second test block. This pattern is consistent with item-specific strengthening of associative memory. The critical items were small non-tie additions (sum ≤ 10) for which the test problems would be implicitly practiced if counting was employed during practice. In all three experiments (and collectively) there was no evidence of generalization for these items in the first test block, but there was robust speed up when the items were repeated in the second test block. Thus, there was no evidence of the generalization of practice that would be expected if counting procedures mediated our participants' performance on small non-tie addition problems.

  14. Studies of alumina additions in zirconia - magnesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muccillo, R.

    1987-01-01

    Ionic conductivity measurements have been carried out in the 500 0 C - 1000 0 C temperature range in Mg - PSZ (Partially Stabilized Zirconia) with 0.5 to 10 mol % alumina additions. All specimens were prepared by pressing followed by pre - and sintering at 1000 0 C/2h and1450 0 C/4h, respectively. Thermal histerysis of the ionic conductivity have been detected, probably due to phase changes in the Mg-PSZ samples. The results show that alumina additions up to 2.1% enhances densification with no major variations in electrical resistivity values. (Author) [pt

  15. Effusion plate using additive manufacturing methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Thomas Edward; Keener, Christopher Paul; Ostebee, Heath Michael; Wegerif, Daniel Gerritt

    2016-04-12

    Additive manufacturing techniques may be utilized to construct effusion plates. Such additive manufacturing techniques may include defining a configuration for an effusion plate having one or more internal cooling channels. The manufacturing techniques may further include depositing a powder into a chamber, applying an energy source to the deposited powder, and consolidating the powder into a cross-sectional shape corresponding to the defined configuration. Such methods may be implemented to construct an effusion plate having one or more channels with a curved cross-sectional geometry.

  16. Photogrammetry for Repositioning in Additive Manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Janus Nørtoft; Lyngby, Rasmus Ahrenkiel; Aanæs, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    In this preliminary work, we present our current status on how to use single camera photogrammetry to determine the orientation of an additively manufactured partly finished object that has been repositioned in the printing chamber, from a single image taken with a calibrated camera, and comparing...... this to the CAD model of the object. We describe how this knowledge can be used to update the machine code of the printer such that printing of the object can be resumed in the new location. This opens possibilities for embedding and assembling foreign parts into the additive manufacturing pipeline, adding...

  17. The structure of additive conservation laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helmut Reen

    1979-01-01

    All additive conserved quantities are listed for a system with short range central force interaction between the particles: a special case shows up in Boltzmann H-theorem and his derivation of the Maxwell velocity distribution. It is concluded that in classical mechanics of mass points there are no other additive conservation laws besides of energy, momentum, angular momentum and center of mass motion. A generator is considered of a symmetry transformation defined as integral over a conserved local current density where the latter, in general, needs not be covariant under translations

  18. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John

    2009-01-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  19. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  20. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)