Flexible semiparametric joint modeling: an application to estimate individual lung function decline and risk of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Li

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic surveillance of lung function is key to clinical care of individuals with cystic fibrosis, but lung function decline is nonlinear and often impacted by acute respiratory events known as pulmonary exacerbations. Statistical models are needed to simultaneously estimate lung function decline while providing risk estimates for the onset of pulmonary exacerbations, in order to identify relevant predictors of declining lung function and understand how these associations could be used to predict the onset of pulmonary exacerbations. Methods Using longitudinal lung function (FEV1 measurements and time-to-event data on pulmonary exacerbations from individuals in the United States Cystic Fibrosis Registry, we implemented a flexible semiparametric joint model consisting of a mixed-effects submodel with regression splines to fit repeated FEV1 measurements and a time-to-event submodel for possibly censored data on pulmonary exacerbations. We contrasted this approach with methods currently used in epidemiological studies and highlight clinical implications. Results The semiparametric joint model had the best fit of all models examined based on deviance information criterion. Higher starting FEV1 implied more rapid lung function decline in both separate and joint models; however, individualized risk estimates for pulmonary exacerbation differed depending upon model type. Based on shared parameter estimates from the joint model, which accounts for the nonlinear FEV1 trajectory, patients with more positive rates of change were less likely to experience a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 rate of change = 0.566, 95% CI 0.516–0.619, and having higher absolute FEV1 also corresponded to lower risk of having a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 = 0.856, 95% CI 0.781–0.937. At the population level, both submodels indicated significant effects of birth

Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

KAUST Repository

Sinha, Samiran

2009-08-10

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values of the exposure are never observed. Motivated by nutritional epidemiological data, we consider the setting where a surrogate covariate is recorded in the primary data, and a calibration data set contains information on the surrogate variable and repeated measurements of an unbiased instrumental variable of the true exposure. We develop a flexible Bayesian method where not only is the relationship between the disease and exposure variable treated semiparametrically, but also the relationship between the surrogate and the true exposure is modeled semiparametrically. The two nonparametric functions are modeled simultaneously via B-splines. In addition, we model the distribution of the exposure variable as a Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions, thus making its modeling essentially nonparametric and placing this work into the context of functional measurement error modeling. We apply our method to the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study and examine its performance in a simulation study.

Dose-response curve estimation: a semiparametric mixture approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; Yin, Guosheng

2011-12-01

In the estimation of a dose-response curve, parametric models are straightforward and efficient but subject to model misspecifications; nonparametric methods are robust but less efficient. As a compromise, we propose a semiparametric approach that combines the advantages of parametric and nonparametric curve estimates. In a mixture form, our estimator takes a weighted average of the parametric and nonparametric curve estimates, in which a higher weight is assigned to the estimate with a better model fit. When the parametric model assumption holds, the semiparametric curve estimate converges to the parametric estimate and thus achieves high efficiency; when the parametric model is misspecified, the semiparametric estimate converges to the nonparametric estimate and remains consistent. We also consider an adaptive weighting scheme to allow the weight to vary according to the local fit of the models. We conduct extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed methods and illustrate them with two real examples. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data

CERN Document Server

Tsiatis, Anastasios A

2006-01-01

Missing data arise in almost all scientific disciplines. In many cases, missing data in an analysis is treated in a casual and ad-hoc manner, leading to invalid inferences and erroneous conclusions. This book summarizes knowledge regarding the theory of estimation for semiparametric models with missing data.

Study on Semi-Parametric Statistical Model of Safety Monitoring of Cracks in Concrete Dams

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Chongshi Gu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cracks are one of the hidden dangers in concrete dams. The study on safety monitoring models of concrete dam cracks has always been difficult. Using the parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of cracks in concrete dams, with the help of the semi-parametric statistical theory, and considering the abnormal behaviors of these cracks, the semi-parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of concrete dam cracks is established to overcome the limitation of the parametric model in expressing the objective model. Previous projects show that the semi-parametric statistical model has a stronger fitting effect and has a better explanation for cracks in concrete dams than the parametric statistical model. However, when used for forecast, the forecast capability of the semi-parametric statistical model is equivalent to that of the parametric statistical model. The modeling of the semi-parametric statistical model is simple, has a reasonable principle, and has a strong practicality, with a good application prospect in the actual project.

Bootstrap consistency for general semiparametric M-estimation

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Guang; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2010-01-01

, and apply to a broad class of bootstrap methods with exchangeable ootstrap weights. This paper provides a first general theoretical study of the bootstrap in semiparametric models. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

Science.gov (United States)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

2015-11-01

One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

Semi-parametrical NAA method for paper analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medeiros, Ilca M.M.A.; Zamboni, Cibele B.; Cruz, Manuel T.F. da; Morel, Jose C.O.; Park, Song W.

2007-01-01

The semi-parametric Neutron Activation Analysis technique, using Au as flux monitor, was applied to determine element concentrations in white paper, usually commercialized, aiming to check the quality control of its production in industrial process. (author)

Using Spline Regression in Semi-Parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis: An Application to Polish Dairy Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

of specifying an unsuitable functional form and thus, model misspecification and biased parameter estimates. Given these problems of the DEA and the SFA, Fan, Li and Weersink (1996) proposed a semi-parametric stochastic frontier model that estimates the production function (frontier) by non......), Kumbhakar et al. (2007), and Henningsen and Kumbhakar (2009). The aim of this paper and its main contribution to the existing literature is the estimation semi-parametric stochastic frontier models using a different non-parametric estimation technique: spline regression (Ma et al. 2011). We apply...... efficiency of Polish dairy farms contributes to the insight into this dynamic process. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate the results of this spline-based semi-parametric stochastic frontier model with results of other semi-parametric stochastic frontier models and of traditional parametric stochastic...

Bayesian spatial semi-parametric modeling of HIV variation in Kenya.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oscar Ngesa

Full Text Available Spatial statistics has seen rapid application in many fields, especially epidemiology and public health. Many studies, nonetheless, make limited use of the geographical location information and also usually assume that the covariates, which are related to the response variable, have linear effects. We develop a Bayesian semi-parametric regression model for HIV prevalence data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC. The model is applied to HIV prevalence data among men in Kenya, derived from the Kenya AIDS indicator survey, with n = 3,662. Past studies have concluded that HIV infection has a nonlinear association with age. In this study a smooth function based on penalized regression splines is used to estimate this nonlinear effect. Other covariates were assumed to have a linear effect. Spatial references to the counties were modeled as both structured and unstructured spatial effects. We observe that circumcision reduces the risk of HIV infection. The results also indicate that men in the urban areas were more likely to be infected by HIV as compared to their rural counterpart. Men with higher education had the lowest risk of HIV infection. A nonlinear relationship between HIV infection and age was established. Risk of HIV infection increases with age up to the age of 40 then declines with increase in age. Men who had STI in the last 12 months were more likely to be infected with HIV. Also men who had ever used a condom were found to have higher likelihood to be infected by HIV. A significant spatial variation of HIV infection in Kenya was also established. The study shows the practicality and flexibility of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model in analyzing epidemiological data.

Multivariate and semiparametric kernel regression

OpenAIRE

Härdle, Wolfgang; Müller, Marlene

1997-01-01

The paper gives an introduction to theory and application of multivariate and semiparametric kernel smoothing. Multivariate nonparametric density estimation is an often used pilot tool for examining the structure of data. Regression smoothing helps in investigating the association between covariates and responses. We concentrate on kernel smoothing using local polynomial fitting which includes the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Some theory on the asymptotic behavior and bandwidth selection is pro...

New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunbei Ma

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

A semi-parametric within-subject mixture approach to the analyses of responses and response times.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Dylan; Bolsinova, Maria; Vermunt, Jeroen K

2018-05-01

In item response theory, modelling the item response times in addition to the item responses may improve the detection of possible between- and within-subject differences in the process that resulted in the responses. For instance, if respondents rely on rapid guessing on some items but not on all, the joint distribution of the responses and response times will be a multivariate within-subject mixture distribution. Suitable parametric methods to detect these within-subject differences have been proposed. In these approaches, a distribution needs to be assumed for the within-class response times. In this paper, it is demonstrated that these parametric within-subject approaches may produce false positives and biased parameter estimates if the assumption concerning the response time distribution is violated. A semi-parametric approach is proposed which resorts to categorized response times. This approach is shown to hardly produce false positives and parameter bias. In addition, the semi-parametric approach results in approximately the same power as the parametric approach. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2016-01-01

In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

The Semiparametric Normal Variance-Mean Mixture Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsholm, Lars

1997-01-01

We discuss the normal vairance-mean mixture model from a semi-parametric point of view, i.e. we let the mixing distribution belong to a non parametric family. The main results are consistency of the non parametric maximum likelihood estimat or in this case, and construction of an asymptotically...... normal and efficient estimator....

Semiparametric copula models for biometric score level fusion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Susyanto, N.

2016-01-01

In biometric recognition, biometric samples (images of faces, fingerprints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and matchers (classifiers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If we model the joint distribution of all scores by a (semiparametric) Gaussian

Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2010-07-05

We study generalized linear latent variable models without requiring a distributional assumption of the latent variables. Using a geometric approach, we derive consistent semiparametric estimators. We demonstrate that these models have a property which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n consistency and asymptotic normality. We explain the computational implementation of our method and illustrate the numerical performance of the estimators in finite sample situations via extensive simulation studies. The advantage of our estimators over the existing likelihood approach is also shown via numerical comparison. We employ the method to analyse a real data example from economics. © 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

Semi-parametric estimation for ARCH models

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Raed Alzghool

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we conduct semi-parametric estimation for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH model with Quasi likelihood (QL and Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL estimation methods. The QL approach relaxes the distributional assumptions of ARCH processes. The AQL technique is obtained from the QL method when the process conditional variance is unknown. We present an application of the methods to a daily exchange rate series. Keywords: ARCH model, Quasi likelihood (QL, Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL, Martingale difference, Kernel estimator

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2010-07-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan; Genton, Marc G.

2010-01-01

which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n

Semiparametric mixed-effects analysis of PK/PD models using differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi; Eskridge, Kent M; Zhang, Shunpu

2008-08-01

Motivated by the use of semiparametric nonlinear mixed-effects modeling on longitudinal data, we develop a new semiparametric modeling approach to address potential structural model misspecification for population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analysis. Specifically, we use a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with form dx/dt = A(t)x + B(t) where B(t) is a nonparametric function that is estimated using penalized splines. The inclusion of a nonparametric function in the ODEs makes identification of structural model misspecification feasible by quantifying the model uncertainty and provides flexibility for accommodating possible structural model deficiencies. The resulting model will be implemented in a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling setup for population analysis. We illustrate the method with an application to cefamandole data and evaluate its performance through simulations.

Hyperbolic and semi-parametric models in finance

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, N. H.; Kiesel, Rüdiger

2001-02-01

The benchmark Black-Scholes-Merton model of mathematical finance is parametric, based on the normal/Gaussian distribution. Its principal parametric competitor, the hyperbolic model of Barndorff-Nielsen, Eberlein and others, is briefly discussed. Our main theme is the use of semi-parametric models, incorporating the mean vector and covariance matrix as in the Markowitz approach, plus a non-parametric part, a scalar function incorporating features such as tail-decay. Implementation is also briefly discussed.

Semiparametric regression for the social sciences

CERN Document Server

Keele, Luke John

2008-01-01

An introductory guide to smoothing techniques, semiparametric estimators, and their related methods, this book describes the methodology via a selection of carefully explained examples and data sets. It also demonstrates the potential of these techniques using detailed empirical examples drawn from the social and political sciences. Each chapter includes exercises and examples and there is a supplementary website containing all the datasets used, as well as computer code, allowing readers to replicate every analysis reported in the book. Includes software for implementing the methods in S-Plus and R.

Semiparametric estimation of covariance matrices for longitudinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jianqing; Wu, Yichao

2008-12-01

Estimation of longitudinal data covariance structure poses significant challenges because the data are usually collected at irregular time points. A viable semiparametric model for covariance matrices was proposed in Fan, Huang and Li (2007) that allows one to estimate the variance function nonparametrically and to estimate the correlation function parametrically via aggregating information from irregular and sparse data points within each subject. However, the asymptotic properties of their quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of parameters in the covariance model are largely unknown. In the current work, we address this problem in the context of more general models for the conditional mean function including parametric, nonparametric, or semi-parametric. We also consider the possibility of rough mean regression function and introduce the difference-based method to reduce biases in the context of varying-coefficient partially linear mean regression models. This provides a more robust estimator of the covariance function under a wider range of situations. Under some technical conditions, consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained for the QMLE of the parameters in the correlation function. Simulation studies and a real data example are used to illustrate the proposed approach.

Semiparametric Gaussian copula models : Geometry and efficient rank-based estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Segers, J.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

2014-01-01

We propose, for multivariate Gaussian copula models with unknown margins and structured correlation matrices, a rank-based, semiparametrically efficient estimator for the Euclidean copula parameter. This estimator is defined as a one-step update of a rank-based pilot estimator in the direction of

A semiparametric separation curve approach for comparing correlated ROC data from multiple markers

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Liansheng Larry; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2012-01-01

In this article we propose a separation curve method to identify the range of false positive rates for which two ROC curves differ or one ROC curve is superior to the other. Our method is based on a general multivariate ROC curve model, including interaction terms between discrete covariates and false positive rates. It is applicable with most existing ROC curve models. Furthermore, we introduce a semiparametric least squares ROC estimator and apply the estimator to the separation curve method. We derive a sandwich estimator for the covariance matrix of the semiparametric estimator. We illustrate the application of our separation curve method through two real life examples. PMID:23074360

A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2010-01-15

Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

Semiparametric Power Envelopes for Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jansson, Michael

This paper derives asymptotic power envelopes for tests of the unit root hypothesis in a zero-mean AR(1) model. The power envelopes are derived using the limits of experiments approach and are semiparametric in the sense that the underlying error distribution is treated as an unknown...

Reliable single chip genotyping with semi-parametric log-concave mixtures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralph C A Rippe

Full Text Available The common approach to SNP genotyping is to use (model-based clustering per individual SNP, on a set of arrays. Genotyping all SNPs on a single array is much more attractive, in terms of flexibility, stability and applicability, when developing new chips. A new semi-parametric method, named SCALA, is proposed. It is based on a mixture model using semi-parametric log-concave densities. Instead of using the raw data, the mixture is fitted on a two-dimensional histogram, thereby making computation time almost independent of the number of SNPs. Furthermore, the algorithm is effective in low-MAF situations.Comparisons between SCALA and CRLMM on HapMap genotypes show very reliable calling of single arrays. Some heterozygous genotypes from HapMap are called homozygous by SCALA and to lesser extent by CRLMM too. Furthermore, HapMap's NoCalls (NN could be genotyped by SCALA, mostly with high probability. The software is available as R scripts from the website www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~rrippe.

Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

1996-01-01

We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

Reliable Single Chip Genotyping with Semi-Parametric Log-Concave Mixtures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.C.A. Rippe (Ralph); J.J. Meulman (Jacqueline); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul)

2012-01-01

textabstractThe common approach to SNP genotyping is to use (model-based) clustering per individual SNP, on a set of arrays. Genotyping all SNPs on a single array is much more attractive, in terms of flexibility, stability and applicability, when developing new chips. A new semi-parametric method,

Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

KAUST Repository

Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Maity, Arnab

2011-01-01

We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work

Gender Wage Gap : A Semi-Parametric Approach With Sample Selection Correction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Picchio, M.; Mussida, C.

2010-01-01

Sizeable gender differences in employment rates are observed in many countries. Sample selection into the workforce might therefore be a relevant issue when estimating gender wage gaps. This paper proposes a new semi-parametric estimator of densities in the presence of covariates which incorporates

Semi-Parametric Maximum Likelihood Method for Interaction in Case-Mother Control-Mother Designs: Package SPmlficmcm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moliere Nguile-Makao

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The analysis of interaction effects involving genetic variants and environmental exposures on the risk of adverse obstetric and early-life outcomes is generally performed using standard logistic regression in the case-mother and control-mother design. However such an analysis is inefficient because it does not take into account the natural family-based constraints present in the parent-child relationship. Recently, a new approach based on semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimation was proposed. The advantage of this approach is that it takes into account the parental relationship between the mother and her child in estimation. But a package implementing this method has not been widely available. In this paper, we present SPmlficmcm, an R package implementing this new method and we propose an extension of the method to handle missing offspring genotype data by maximum likelihood estimation. Our choice to treat missing data of the offspring genotype was motivated by the fact that in genetic association studies where the genetic data of mother and child are available, there are usually more missing data on the genotype of the offspring than that of the mother. The package builds a non-linear system from the data and solves and computes the estimates from the gradient and the Hessian matrix of the log profile semi-parametric likelihood function. Finally, we analyze a simulated dataset to show the usefulness of the package.

Online Semiparametric Identification of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using the Wavelet-Based Partially Linear Battery Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caiping Zhang

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Battery model identification is very important for reliable battery management as well as for battery system design process. The common problem in identifying battery models is how to determine the most appropriate mathematical model structure and parameterized coefficients based on the measured terminal voltage and current. This paper proposes a novel semiparametric approach using the wavelet-based partially linear battery model (PLBM and a recursive penalized wavelet estimator for online battery model identification. Three main contributions are presented. First, the semiparametric PLBM is proposed to simulate the battery dynamics. Compared with conventional electrical models of a battery, the proposed PLBM is equipped with a semiparametric partially linear structure, which includes a parametric part (involving the linear equivalent circuit parameters and a nonparametric part [involving the open-circuit voltage (OCV]. Thus, even with little prior knowledge about the OCV, the PLBM can be identified using a semiparametric identification framework. Second, we model the nonparametric part of the PLBM using the truncated wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA expansion, which leads to a parsimonious model structure that is highly desirable for model identification; using this model, the PLBM could be represented in a linear-in-parameter manner. Finally, to exploit the sparsity of the wavelet MRA representation and allow for online implementation, a penalized wavelet estimator that uses a modified online cyclic coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to identify the PLBM in a recursive fashion. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed PLBM with the corresponding identification algorithm can accurately simulate the dynamic behavior of a lithium-ion battery in the Federal Urban Driving Schedule tests.

Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Peter

2014-01-01

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

KAUST Repository

Sinha, Samiran; Mallick, Bani K.; Kipnis, Victor; Carroll, Raymond J.

2009-01-01

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values

Visualizing Confidence Bands for Semiparametrically Estimated Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Pek, Jolynn; Chalmers, R. Philip; Kok, Bethany E.; Losardo, Diane

2015-01-01

Structural equation mixture models (SEMMs), when applied as a semiparametric model (SPM), can adequately recover potentially nonlinear latent relationships without their specification. This SPM is useful for exploratory analysis when the form of the latent regression is unknown. The purpose of this article is to help users familiar with structural…

Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Morten Ø.; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

2005-01-01

In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The es...... the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.......In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods....... The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all...

Energy consumption and income. A semiparametric panel data analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen-Van, Phu [BETA, CNRS and Universite de Strasbourg, 61 avenue de la Foret Noire, F-67085 Strasbourg (France)

2010-05-15

This paper proposes a semiparametric analysis for the study of the relationship between energy consumption per capita and income per capita for an international panel dataset. It shows little evidence for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve for energy consumption. Energy consumption increases with income for a majority of countries and then stabilizes for very high income countries. Neither changes in energy structure nor macroeconomic cycle/technological change have significant effect on energy consumption. (author)

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2009-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

TWO METHODS OF ESTIMATING SEMIPARAMETRIC COMPONENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNET'S CURVE (EKC)

OpenAIRE

Paudel, Krishna P.; Zapata, Hector O.

2004-01-01

This study compares parametric and semiparametric smoothing techniques to estimate the environmental Kuznet curve. The ad hoc functional form where income is related either as a square or a cubic function to environmental quality is relaxed in search of a better nonlinear fit to the pollution-income relationship for panel data.

Confidence Intervals for a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Pek, Jolynn; Losardo, Diane; Bauer, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Compared to parametric models, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to modeling nonlinearity between latent variables have the advantage of recovering global relationships of unknown functional form. Bauer (2005) proposed an indirect application of finite mixtures of structural equation models where latent components are estimated in the…

Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

2016-01-01

Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

PEMODELAN JUMLAH ANAK PUTUS SEKOLAH DI PROVINSI BALI DENGAN PENDEKATAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GUSTI AYU RATIH ASTARI

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Dropout number is one of the important indicators to measure the human progress resources in education sector. This research uses the approaches of Semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression to get the best model and to determine the influencing factors of dropout number for primary education in Bali. The analysis results show that there are no significant differences between the Poisson regression model with GWPR and Semi-parametric GWPR. Factors which significantly influence the dropout number for primary education in Bali are the ratio of students to school, ratio of students to teachers, the number of families with the latest educational fathers is elementary or junior high school, illiteracy rates, and the average number of family members.

tgp: An R Package for Bayesian Nonstationary, Semiparametric Nonlinear Regression and Design by Treed Gaussian Process Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert B. Gramacy

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The tgp package for R is a tool for fully Bayesian nonstationary, semiparametric nonlinear regression and design by treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. Special cases also implemented include Bayesian linear models, linear CART, stationary separable and isotropic Gaussian processes. In addition to inference and posterior prediction, the package supports the (sequential design of experiments under these models paired with several objective criteria. 1-d and 2-d plotting, with higher dimension projection and slice capabilities, and tree drawing functions (requiring maptree and combinat packages, are also provided for visualization of tgp objects.

Semiparametric inference on the fractal index of Gaussian and conditionally Gaussian time series data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennedsen, Mikkel

Using theory on (conditionally) Gaussian processes with stationary increments developed in Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2009, 2011), this paper presents a general semiparametric approach to conducting inference on the fractal index, α, of a time series. Our setup encompasses a large class of Gaussian...

Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

1997-01-01

textabstractAccurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financial applications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaR evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by

Semi-parametric modelling of investments in heating installations: The case of the Dutch glasshouse industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Pietola, K.

2005-01-01

This paper applies a semi-parametric approach to estimating a generalised model of investments in heating installations. The results suggest that marginal costs of investments in heating installations increase quickly at small investment levels, whereas the increase slows down at higher investment

Empirical Bayes Estimation of Semi-parametric Hierarchical Mixture Models for Unbiased Characterization of Polygenic Disease Architectures

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Jo Nishino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS suggest that the genetic architecture of complex diseases consists of unexpectedly numerous variants with small effect sizes. However, the polygenic architectures of many diseases have not been well characterized due to lack of simple and fast methods for unbiased estimation of the underlying proportion of disease-associated variants and their effect-size distribution. Applying empirical Bayes estimation of semi-parametric hierarchical mixture models to GWAS summary statistics, we confirmed that schizophrenia was extremely polygenic [~40% of independent genome-wide SNPs are risk variants, most within odds ratio (OR = 1.03], whereas rheumatoid arthritis was less polygenic (~4 to 8% risk variants, significant portion reaching OR = 1.05 to 1.1. For rheumatoid arthritis, stratified estimations revealed that expression quantitative loci in blood explained large genetic variance, and low- and high-frequency derived alleles were prone to be risk and protective, respectively, suggesting a predominance of deleterious-risk and advantageous-protective mutations. Despite genetic correlation, effect-size distributions for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder differed across allele frequency. These analyses distinguished disease polygenic architectures and provided clues for etiological differences in complex diseases.

Modelling asset correlations during the recent financial crisis: A semiparametric approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel

This article proposes alternatives to the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model to study assets' correlations during the recent financial crisis. In particular, we adopt a semiparametric and nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional correlations for two interesting portfolios....... The first portfolio consists of equity sectors SPDRs and the S&P 500 composite, while the second one contains major currencies that are actively traded in the foreign exchange market. Methodologically, our contribution is two fold. First, we propose the Local Linear (LL) estimator for the correlations...

Model selection for semiparametric marginal mean regression accounting for within-cluster subsampling variability and informative cluster size.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

2018-03-13

We propose a model selection criterion for semiparametric marginal mean regression based on generalized estimating equations. The work is motivated by a longitudinal study on the physical frailty outcome in the elderly, where the cluster size, that is, the number of the observed outcomes in each subject, is "informative" in the sense that it is related to the frailty outcome itself. The new proposal, called Resampling Cluster Information Criterion (RCIC), is based on the resampling idea utilized in the within-cluster resampling method (Hoffman, Sen, and Weinberg, 2001, Biometrika 88, 1121-1134) and accommodates informative cluster size. The implementation of RCIC, however, is free of performing actual resampling of the data and hence is computationally convenient. Compared with the existing model selection methods for marginal mean regression, the RCIC method incorporates an additional component accounting for variability of the model over within-cluster subsampling, and leads to remarkable improvements in selecting the correct model, regardless of whether the cluster size is informative or not. Applying the RCIC method to the longitudinal frailty study, we identify being female, old age, low income and life satisfaction, and chronic health conditions as significant risk factors for physical frailty in the elderly. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Bayesian Semiparametric Density Deconvolution in the Presence of Conditionally Heteroscedastic Measurement Errors

KAUST Repository

Sarkar, Abhra

2014-10-02

We consider the problem of estimating the density of a random variable when precise measurements on the variable are not available, but replicated proxies contaminated with measurement error are available for sufficiently many subjects. Under the assumption of additive measurement errors this reduces to a problem of deconvolution of densities. Deconvolution methods often make restrictive and unrealistic assumptions about the density of interest and the distribution of measurement errors, e.g., normality and homoscedasticity and thus independence from the variable of interest. This article relaxes these assumptions and introduces novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology based on Dirichlet process mixture models for robust deconvolution of densities in the presence of conditionally heteroscedastic measurement errors. In particular, the models can adapt to asymmetry, heavy tails and multimodality. In simulation experiments, we show that our methods vastly outperform a recent Bayesian approach based on estimating the densities via mixtures of splines. We apply our methods to data from nutritional epidemiology. Even in the special case when the measurement errors are homoscedastic, our methodology is novel and dominates other methods that have been proposed previously. Additional simulation results, instructions on getting access to the data set and R programs implementing our methods are included as part of online supplemental materials.

Bayesian Semiparametric Density Deconvolution in the Presence of Conditionally Heteroscedastic Measurement Errors

KAUST Repository

Sarkar, Abhra; Mallick, Bani K.; Staudenmayer, John; Pati, Debdeep; Carroll, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of estimating the density of a random variable when precise measurements on the variable are not available, but replicated proxies contaminated with measurement error are available for sufficiently many subjects. Under the assumption of additive measurement errors this reduces to a problem of deconvolution of densities. Deconvolution methods often make restrictive and unrealistic assumptions about the density of interest and the distribution of measurement errors, e.g., normality and homoscedasticity and thus independence from the variable of interest. This article relaxes these assumptions and introduces novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology based on Dirichlet process mixture models for robust deconvolution of densities in the presence of conditionally heteroscedastic measurement errors. In particular, the models can adapt to asymmetry, heavy tails and multimodality. In simulation experiments, we show that our methods vastly outperform a recent Bayesian approach based on estimating the densities via mixtures of splines. We apply our methods to data from nutritional epidemiology. Even in the special case when the measurement errors are homoscedastic, our methodology is novel and dominates other methods that have been proposed previously. Additional simulation results, instructions on getting access to the data set and R programs implementing our methods are included as part of online supplemental materials.

Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life

CERN Document Server

Nikulin, M; Mesbah, M; Limnios, N

2004-01-01

Parametric and semiparametric models are tools with a wide range of applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. This self-contained volume examines these tools in survey articles written by experts currently working on the development and evaluation of models and methods. While a number of chapters deal with general theory, several explore more specific connections and recent results in "real-world" reliability theory, survival analysis, and related fields.

Second-order analysis of semiparametric recurrent event processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yongtao

2011-09-01

A typical recurrent event dataset consists of an often large number of recurrent event processes, each of which contains multiple event times observed from an individual during a follow-up period. Such data have become increasingly available in medical and epidemiological studies. In this article, we introduce novel procedures to conduct second-order analysis for a flexible class of semiparametric recurrent event processes. Such an analysis can provide useful information regarding the dependence structure within each recurrent event process. Specifically, we will use the proposed procedures to test whether the individual recurrent event processes are all Poisson processes and to suggest sensible alternative models for them if they are not. We apply these procedures to a well-known recurrent event dataset on chronic granulomatous disease and an epidemiological dataset on meningococcal disease cases in Merseyside, United Kingdom to illustrate their practical value. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of accelerated failure time models with cluster structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhaonan; Xu, Xinyi; Shen, Junshan

2017-11-10

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for survival data with cluster structures. Our model allows distributional heterogeneity across clusters and accommodates their relationships through a density ratio approach. Moreover, a nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet processes prior is placed on the baseline distribution to yield full distributional flexibility. We illustrate through simulations that our model can greatly improve estimation accuracy by effectively pooling information from multiple clusters, while taking into account the heterogeneity in their random error distributions. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method using analysis of Mayo Clinic Trial in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Testing Homogeneity in a Semiparametric Two-Sample Problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yukun Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We study a two-sample homogeneity testing problem, in which one sample comes from a population with density f(x and the other is from a mixture population with mixture density (1−λf(x+λg(x. This problem arises naturally from many statistical applications such as test for partial differential gene expression in microarray study or genetic studies for gene mutation. Under the semiparametric assumption g(x=f(xeα+βx, a penalized empirical likelihood ratio test could be constructed, but its implementation is hindered by the fact that there is neither feasible algorithm for computing the test statistic nor available research results on its theoretical properties. To circumvent these difficulties, we propose an EM test based on the penalized empirical likelihood. We prove that the EM test has a simple chi-square limiting distribution, and we also demonstrate its competitive testing performances by simulations. A real-data example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Reprint of "Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in four endemic provinces of Zambia using semiparametric Poisson regression".

Science.gov (United States)

Shimaponda-Mataa, Nzooma M; Tembo-Mwase, Enala; Gebreslasie, Michael; Achia, Thomas N O; Mukaratirwa, Samson

2017-11-01

Although malaria morbidity and mortality are greatly reduced globally owing to great control efforts, the disease remains the main contributor. In Zambia, all provinces are malaria endemic. However, the transmission intensities vary mainly depending on environmental factors as they interact with the vectors. Generally in Africa, possibly due to the varying perspectives and methods used, there is variation on the relative importance of malaria risk determinants. In Zambia, the role climatic factors play on malaria case rates has not been determined in combination of space and time using robust methods in modelling. This is critical considering the reversal in malaria reduction after the year 2010 and the variation by transmission zones. Using a geoadditive or structured additive semiparametric Poisson regression model, we determined the influence of climatic factors on malaria incidence in four endemic provinces of Zambia. We demonstrate a strong positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation as well as minimum temperature. The risk of malaria was 95% lower in Lusaka (ARR=0.05, 95% CI=0.04-0.06) and 68% lower in the Western Province (ARR=0.31, 95% CI=0.25-0.41) compared to Luapula Province. North-western Province did not vary from Luapula Province. The effects of geographical region are clearly demonstrated by the unique behaviour and effects of minimum and maximum temperatures in the four provinces. Environmental factors such as landscape in urbanised places may also be playing a role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

KAUST Repository

Wei, Jiawei

2011-07-01

We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work was originally motivated by a unique testing problem in genetic epidemiology (Chatterjee, et al., 2006) that involved a typical generalized linear model but with an additional term reminiscent of the Tukey one-degree-of-freedom formulation, and their interest was in testing for main effects of the genetic variables, while gaining statistical power by allowing for a possible interaction between genes and the environment. Later work (Maity, et al., 2009) involved the possibility of modeling the environmental variable nonparametrically, but they focused on whether there was a parametric main effect for the genetic variables. In this paper, we consider the complementary problem, where the interest is in testing for the main effect of the nonparametrically modeled environmental variable. We derive a generalized likelihood ratio test for this hypothesis, show how to implement it, and provide evidence that our method can improve statistical power when compared to standard partially linear models with main effects only. We use the method for the primary purpose of analyzing data from a case-control study of colorectal adenoma.

Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Datta Saheli

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

Semiparametric regression analysis of failure time data with dependent interval censoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chyong-Mei; Shen, Pao-Sheng

2017-09-20

Interval-censored failure-time data arise when subjects are examined or observed periodically such that the failure time of interest is not examined exactly but only known to be bracketed between two adjacent observation times. The commonly used approaches assume that the examination times and the failure time are independent or conditionally independent given covariates. In many practical applications, patients who are already in poor health or have a weak immune system before treatment usually tend to visit physicians more often after treatment than those with better health or immune system. In this situation, the visiting rate is positively correlated with the risk of failure due to the health status, which results in dependent interval-censored data. While some measurable factors affecting health status such as age, gender, and physical symptom can be included in the covariates, some health-related latent variables cannot be observed or measured. To deal with dependent interval censoring involving unobserved latent variable, we characterize the visiting/examination process as recurrent event process and propose a joint frailty model to account for the association of the failure time and visiting process. A shared gamma frailty is incorporated into the Cox model and proportional intensity model for the failure time and visiting process, respectively, in a multiplicative way. We propose a semiparametric maximum likelihood approach for estimating model parameters and show the asymptotic properties, including consistency and weak convergence. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and a data set of bladder cancer is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Housing price prediction: parametric versus semi-parametric spatial hedonic models

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, José-María; Mínguez, Román; Fernández-Avilés, Gema

2018-01-01

House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The models are represented as a mixed model that allow for the estimation of the smoothing parameters along with the other parameters of the model. To assess the out-of-sample performance of the models, the paper uses a database containing the price and characteristics of 10,512 homes in Madrid, Spain (Q1 2010). The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and flexible nonlinear relationships between some of the individual or areal characteristics of the houses and their prices are the best strategies for house price prediction.

Modelling of and empirical studies on portfolio choice, option pricing, and credit risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polbennikov, S.Y.

2005-01-01

This thesis develops and applies a statistical spanning test for mean-coherent regular risk portfolios. Similarly in spirt to Huberman and Kandel (1987), this test can be implemented by means of a simple semi-parametric instrumental variable regression, where instruments have a direct link with a

Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lo, Simon M. S.; Stephan, Gesine; Wilke, Ralf

2017-01-01

The copula graphic estimator (CGE) for competing risks models has received little attention in empirical research, despite having been developed into a comprehensive research method. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theoretical developments and applied research by considering a general...... class of competing risks copula models, which nests popular models such as the Cox proportional hazards model, the semiparametric multivariate mixed proportional hazards model (MMPHM), and the CGE as special cases. Analyzing the effects of a German Hartz reform on unemployment duration, we illustrate...

Generalized Functional Linear Models With Semiparametric Single-Index Interactions

KAUST Repository

Li, Yehua

2010-06-01

We introduce a new class of functional generalized linear models, where the response is a scalar and some of the covariates are functional. We assume that the response depends on multiple covariates, a finite number of latent features in the functional predictor, and interaction between the two. To achieve parsimony, the interaction between the multiple covariates and the functional predictor is modeled semiparametrically with a single-index structure. We propose a two step estimation procedure based on local estimating equations, and investigate two situations: (a) when the basis functions are pre-determined, e.g., Fourier or wavelet basis functions and the functional features of interest are known; and (b) when the basis functions are data driven, such as with functional principal components. Asymptotic properties are developed. Notably, we show that when the functional features are data driven, the parameter estimates have an increased asymptotic variance, due to the estimation error of the basis functions. Our methods are illustrated with a simulation study and applied to an empirical data set, where a previously unknown interaction is detected. Technical proofs of our theoretical results are provided in the online supplemental materials.

Generalized Functional Linear Models With Semiparametric Single-Index Interactions

KAUST Repository

Li, Yehua; Wang, Naisyin; Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

We introduce a new class of functional generalized linear models, where the response is a scalar and some of the covariates are functional. We assume that the response depends on multiple covariates, a finite number of latent features in the functional predictor, and interaction between the two. To achieve parsimony, the interaction between the multiple covariates and the functional predictor is modeled semiparametrically with a single-index structure. We propose a two step estimation procedure based on local estimating equations, and investigate two situations: (a) when the basis functions are pre-determined, e.g., Fourier or wavelet basis functions and the functional features of interest are known; and (b) when the basis functions are data driven, such as with functional principal components. Asymptotic properties are developed. Notably, we show that when the functional features are data driven, the parameter estimates have an increased asymptotic variance, due to the estimation error of the basis functions. Our methods are illustrated with a simulation study and applied to an empirical data set, where a previously unknown interaction is detected. Technical proofs of our theoretical results are provided in the online supplemental materials.

Characteristic function-based semiparametric inference for skew-symmetric models

KAUST Repository

Potgieter, Cornelis J.

2012-12-26

Skew-symmetric models offer a very flexible class of distributions for modelling data. These distributions can also be viewed as selection models for the symmetric component of the specified skew-symmetric distribution. The estimation of the location and scale parameters corresponding to the symmetric component is considered here, with the symmetric component known. Emphasis is placed on using the empirical characteristic function to estimate these parameters. This is made possible by an invariance property of the skew-symmetric family of distributions, namely that even transformations of random variables that are skew-symmetric have a distribution only depending on the symmetric density. A distance metric between the real components of the empirical and true characteristic functions is minimized to obtain the estimators. The method is semiparametric, in that the symmetric component is specified, but the skewing function is assumed unknown. Furthermore, the methodology is extended to hypothesis testing. Two tests for a hypothesis of specific parameter values are considered, as well as a test for the hypothesis that the symmetric component has a specific parametric form. A resampling algorithm is described for practical implementation of these tests. The outcomes of various numerical experiments are presented. © 2012 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Data from Multiple Related Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kiranmoy; Afriyie, Prince; Spirko, Lauren

2015-11-01

Often the biological and/or clinical experiments result in longitudinal data from multiple related groups. The analysis of such data is quite challenging due to the fact that groups might have shared information on the mean and/or covariance functions. In this article, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric approach of modeling the mean trajectories for longitudinal response coming from multiple related groups. We consider matrix stick-breaking process priors on the group mean parameters which allows information sharing on the mean trajectories across the groups. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to the more traditional approaches. We analyze data from a one-year follow-up of nutrition education for hypercholesterolemic children with three different treatments where the children are from different age-groups. Our analysis provides more clinically useful information than the previous analysis of the same dataset. The proposed approach will be a very powerful tool for analyzing data from clinical trials and other medical experiments.

truncSP: An R Package for Estimation of Semi-Parametric Truncated Linear Regression Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Karlsson

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Problems with truncated data occur in many areas, complicating estimation and inference. Regarding linear regression models, the ordinary least squares estimator is inconsistent and biased for these types of data and is therefore unsuitable for use. Alternative estimators, designed for the estimation of truncated regression models, have been developed. This paper presents the R package truncSP. The package contains functions for the estimation of semi-parametric truncated linear regression models using three different estimators: the symmetrically trimmed least squares, quadratic mode, and left truncated estimators, all of which have been shown to have good asymptotic and ?nite sample properties. The package also provides functions for the analysis of the estimated models. Data from the environmental sciences are used to illustrate the functions in the package.

Statistically Efficient Construction of α-Risk-Minimizing Portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki Taniai

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator for α-risk-minimizing portfolio weights. Based on the work of Bassett et al. (2004, an α-risk-minimizing portfolio optimization is formulated as a linear quantile regression problem. The quantile regression method uses a pseudolikelihood based on an asymmetric Laplace reference density, and asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained. We apply the results of Hallin et al. (2008 to the problem of constructing α-risk-minimizing portfolios using residual signs and ranks and a general reference density. Monte Carlo simulations assess the performance of the proposed method. Empirical applications are also investigated.

Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2013-09-01

We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

KAUST Repository

Hartman, Brian M.

2012-06-01

Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97-114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States.We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980-2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2012.

Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

OpenAIRE

Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

2007-01-01

Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

The effects of employment on longitudinal trajectories of offending: A follow up in high risk youth from ages 18 to 32.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Geest, V.R.; Bijleveld, C.C.J.H.; Blokland, A.A.J.

2011-01-01

This article analyzes the effects of employment on delinquent development from 18 to 32 years of age in 270 high-risk males. Prior to 18 years of age, all men had undergone residential treatment for serious problem behavior in a juvenile justice institution in the Netherlands. We use semiparametric

A Robust Semi-Parametric Test for Detecting Trait-Dependent Diversification.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabosky, Daniel L; Huang, Huateng

2016-03-01

Rates of species diversification vary widely across the tree of life and there is considerable interest in identifying organismal traits that correlate with rates of speciation and extinction. However, it has been challenging to develop methodological frameworks for testing hypotheses about trait-dependent diversification that are robust to phylogenetic pseudoreplication and to directionally biased rates of character change. We describe a semi-parametric test for trait-dependent diversification that explicitly requires replicated associations between character states and diversification rates to detect effects. To use the method, diversification rates are reconstructed across a phylogenetic tree with no consideration of character states. A test statistic is then computed to measure the association between species-level traits and the corresponding diversification rate estimates at the tips of the tree. The empirical value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution that is generated by structured permutations of evolutionary rates across the phylogeny. The test is applicable to binary discrete characters as well as continuous-valued traits and can accommodate extremely sparse sampling of character states at the tips of the tree. We apply the test to several empirical data sets and demonstrate that the method has acceptable Type I error rates. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2014-01-01

We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

Empirical Bayes ranking and selection methods via semiparametric hierarchical mixture models in microarray studies.

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Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Shigeyuki

2013-05-20

The main purpose of microarray studies is screening of differentially expressed genes as candidates for further investigation. Because of limited resources in this stage, prioritizing genes are relevant statistical tasks in microarray studies. For effective gene selections, parametric empirical Bayes methods for ranking and selection of genes with largest effect sizes have been proposed (Noma et al., 2010; Biostatistics 11: 281-289). The hierarchical mixture model incorporates the differential and non-differential components and allows information borrowing across differential genes with separation from nuisance, non-differential genes. In this article, we develop empirical Bayes ranking methods via a semiparametric hierarchical mixture model. A nonparametric prior distribution, rather than parametric prior distributions, for effect sizes is specified and estimated using the "smoothing by roughening" approach of Laird and Louis (1991; Computational statistics and data analysis 12: 27-37). We present applications to childhood and infant leukemia clinical studies with microarrays for exploring genes related to prognosis or disease progression. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trajectories of Childhood Sexual Abuse and Early Adolescent HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviors: The Role of Other Maltreatment, Witnessed Violence, and Child Gender

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Jones, Deborah J.; Runyan, Desmond K.; Lewis, Terri; Litrownik, Alan J.; Black, Maureen M.; Wiley, Tisha; English, Diana E.; Proctor, Laura J.; Jones, Bobby L.; Nagin, Daniel S.

2013-01-01

Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with HIV/AIDS risk behavior; however, much of this work is retrospective and focuses on women. The current study used semiparametric mixture modeling with youth (n = 844; 48.8% boys) from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) to examine the link between trajectories of CSA (2 to 12 y.o.) and HIV/AIDS risk behavior at age 14 (i.e., sexual intercourse & alcohol use). Trajectory analyses revealed a link between a history of CSA and the development of risky behavior. In addition, trajectories for physical and emotional abuse, but not neglect or witnessed violence, contributed to risky behavior over and above the role of CSA. Child gender did not moderate the findings. Findings highlight the signficance of CSA histories, as well as the broader context of maltreatment, for better understanding the development of risk behaviors in both girls and boys. PMID:20706919

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

Semiparametric approach for non-monotone missing covariates in a parametric regression model

KAUST Repository

Sinha, Samiran

2014-02-26

Missing covariate data often arise in biomedical studies, and analysis of such data that ignores subjects with incomplete information may lead to inefficient and possibly biased estimates. A great deal of attention has been paid to handling a single missing covariate or a monotone pattern of missing data when the missingness mechanism is missing at random. In this article, we propose a semiparametric method for handling non-monotone patterns of missing data. The proposed method relies on the assumption that the missingness mechanism of a variable does not depend on the missing variable itself but may depend on the other missing variables. This mechanism is somewhat less general than the completely non-ignorable mechanism but is sometimes more flexible than the missing at random mechanism where the missingness mechansim is allowed to depend only on the completely observed variables. The proposed approach is robust to misspecification of the distribution of the missing covariates, and the proposed mechanism helps to nullify (or reduce) the problems due to non-identifiability that result from the non-ignorable missingness mechanism. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are derived. Finite sample performance is assessed through simulation studies. Finally, for the purpose of illustration we analyze an endometrial cancer dataset and a hip fracture dataset.

Understanding uncertainties in non-linear population trajectories: a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical approach to large-scale surveys of coral cover.

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Julie Vercelloni

Full Text Available Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.

Risks associated with endotoxins in feed additives produced by fermentation.

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Wallace, R John; Gropp, Jürgen; Dierick, Noël; Costa, Lucio G; Martelli, Giovanna; Brantom, Paul G; Bampidis, Vasileios; Renshaw, Derek W; Leng, Lubomir

2016-01-15

Increasingly, feed additives for livestock, such as amino acids and vitamins, are being produced by Gram-negative bacteria, particularly Escherichia coli. The potential therefore exists for animals, consumers and workers to be exposed to possibly harmful amounts of endotoxin from these products. The aim of this review was to assess the extent of the risk from endotoxins in feed additives and to calculate how such risk can be assessed from the properties of the additive. Livestock are frequently exposed to a relatively high content of endotoxin in the diet: no additional hazard to livestock would be anticipated if the endotoxin concentration of the feed additive falls in the same range as feedstuffs. Consumer exposure will be unaffected by the consumption of food derived from animals receiving endotoxin-containing feed, because the small concentrations of endotoxin absorbed do not accumulate in edible tissues. In contrast, workers processing a dusty additive may be exposed to hazardous amounts of endotoxin even if the endotoxin concentration of the product is low. A calculation method is proposed to compare the potential risk to the worker, based on the dusting potential, the endotoxin concentration and technical guidance of the European Food Safety Authority, with national exposure limits.

bspmma: An R Package for Bayesian Semiparametric Models for Meta-Analysis

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Deborah Burr

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We introduce an R package, bspmma, which implements a Dirichlet-based random effects model specific to meta-analysis. In meta-analysis, when combining effect estimates from several heterogeneous studies, it is common to use a random-effects model. The usual frequentist or Bayesian models specify a normal distribution for the true effects. However, in many situations, the effect distribution is not normal, e.g., it can have thick tails, be skewed, or be multi-modal. A Bayesian nonparametric model based on mixtures of Dirichlet process priors has been proposed in the literature, for the purpose of accommodating the non-normality. We review this model and then describe a competitor, a semiparametric version which has the feature that it allows for a well-defined centrality parameter convenient for determining whether the overall effect is significant. This second Bayesian model is based on a different version of the Dirichlet process prior, and we call it the "conditional Dirichlet model". The package contains functions to carry out analyses based on either the ordinary or the conditional Dirichlet model, functions for calculating certain Bayes factors that provide a check on the appropriateness of the conditional Dirichlet model, and functions that enable an empirical Bayes selection of the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process. We illustrate the use of the package on two examples, and give an interpretation of the results in these two different scenarios.

Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

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Solberg Trygve

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

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Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Semiparametric profile likelihood estimation for continuous outcomes with excess zeros in a random-threshold damage-resistance model.

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Rice, John D; Tsodikov, Alex

2017-05-30

Continuous outcome data with a proportion of observations equal to zero (often referred to as semicontinuous data) arise frequently in biomedical studies. Typical approaches involve two-part models, with one part a logistic model for the probability of observing a zero and some parametric continuous distribution for modeling the positive part of the data. We propose a semiparametric model based on a biological system with competing damage manifestation and resistance processes. This allows us to derive a closed-form profile likelihood based on the retro-hazard function, leading to a flexible procedure for modeling continuous data with a point mass at zero. A simulation study is presented to examine the properties of the method in finite samples. We apply the method to a data set consisting of pulmonary capillary hemorrhage area in lab rats subjected to diagnostic ultrasound. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Penalized variable selection in competing risks regression.

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Fu, Zhixuan; Parikh, Chirag R; Zhou, Bingqing

2017-07-01

Penalized variable selection methods have been extensively studied for standard time-to-event data. Such methods cannot be directly applied when subjects are at risk of multiple mutually exclusive events, known as competing risks. The proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) model proposed by Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) has become a popular semi-parametric model for time-to-event data with competing risks. It allows for direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a general penalized variable selection strategy that simultaneously handles variable selection and parameter estimation in the PSH model. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed penalized estimators and modify the coordinate descent algorithm for implementation. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Data from deceased donor kidney transplants from the United Network of Organ Sharing illustrate the utility of the proposed method.

Modelling biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays: a hybrid semi-parametric approach

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Oliveira Rui

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a method for modelling dynamical biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays. Since the fundamental mechanisms leading to such delays are many times unknown, non conventional modelling approaches become necessary. Herein, a hybrid semi-parametric identification methodology is proposed in which discrete time series are incorporated into fundamental material balance models. This integration results in hybrid delay differential equations which can be applied to identify unknown cellular dynamics. Results The proposed hybrid modelling methodology was evaluated using two case studies. The first of these deals with dynamic modelling of transcriptional factor A in mammalian cells. The protein transport from the cytosol to the nucleus introduced a delay that was accounted for by discrete time series formulation. The second case study focused on a simple network with distributed time delays that demonstrated that the discrete time delay formalism has broad applicability to both discrete and distributed delay problems. Conclusions Significantly better prediction qualities of the novel hybrid model were obtained when compared to dynamical structures without time delays, being the more distinctive the more significant the underlying system delay is. The identification of the system delays by studies of different discrete modelling delays was enabled by the proposed structure. Further, it was shown that the hybrid discrete delay methodology is not limited to discrete delay systems. The proposed method is a powerful tool to identify time delays in ill-defined biochemical networks.

Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

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Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2012-01-01

Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.

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Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C

2016-08-15

Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

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Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

2018-02-01

In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

"The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

Science.gov (United States)

Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

2016-01-01

Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - additive or multiplicative effect?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomasek, L.

2016-01-01

The aim of the work is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer when combined radon and smoking exposure. Methodologically the evaluation is based on case and control study nested in two cohort studies, including 11,000 miners and 12,000 residents exposed to high concentrations of radon in homes. Radon exposure in individuals is complemented by information on smoking gained personally from them or from their relatives. The study is based on 1,073 cases of lung cancer among miners and 372 cases in population study. Control subjects were randomly selected in each study based on gender, year of birth and age achieved. The combined effect of smoking and radon is evaluated using the so-called geometric mixed models, whose special case is an additive or multiplicative model. The resulting model of the risk is closer to additive interaction (parameter of mixed model 0.2). The consequences of the model in the study of population are illustrated by estimates of lifetime risk in a hypothetical population of smokers and nonsmokers. Compared to the multiplicative risk model, the lifetime risk significantly increased according to the best geometric mixed model, especially in the population of non-smokers. (author)

Two-Sample Statistics for Testing the Equality of Survival Functions Against Improper Semi-parametric Accelerated Failure Time Alternatives: An Application to the Analysis of a Breast Cancer Clinical Trial

Science.gov (United States)

BROËT, PHILIPPE; TSODIKOV, ALEXANDER; DE RYCKE, YANN; MOREAU, THIERRY

2010-01-01

This paper presents two-sample statistics suited for testing equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives. These tests are designed for comparing either the short- or the long-term effect of a prognostic factor, or both. These statistics are obtained as partial likelihood score statistics from a time-dependent Cox model. As a consequence, the proposed tests can be very easily implemented using widely available software. A breast cancer clinical trial is presented as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests. PMID:15293627

Two-sample statistics for testing the equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives: an application to the analysis of a breast cancer clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Broët, Philippe; Tsodikov, Alexander; De Rycke, Yann; Moreau, Thierry

2004-06-01

This paper presents two-sample statistics suited for testing equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives. These tests are designed for comparing either the short- or the long-term effect of a prognostic factor, or both. These statistics are obtained as partial likelihood score statistics from a time-dependent Cox model. As a consequence, the proposed tests can be very easily implemented using widely available software. A breast cancer clinical trial is presented as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests.

Improving risk assessment of color additives in medical device polymers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandrasekar, Vaishnavi; Janes, Dustin W; Forrey, Christopher; Saylor, David M; Bajaj, Akhil; Duncan, Timothy V; Zheng, Jiwen; Riaz Ahmed, Kausar B; Casey, Brendan J

2018-01-01

Many polymeric medical device materials contain color additives which could lead to adverse health effects. The potential health risk of color additives may be assessed by comparing the amount of color additive released over time to levels deemed to be safe based on available toxicity data. We propose a conservative model for exposure that requires only the diffusion coefficient of the additive in the polymer matrix, D, to be specified. The model is applied here using a model polymer (poly(ether-block-amide), PEBAX 2533) and color additive (quinizarin blue) system. Sorption experiments performed in an aqueous dispersion of quinizarin blue (QB) into neat PEBAX yielded a diffusivity D = 4.8 × 10 -10 cm 2  s -1 , and solubility S = 0.32 wt %. On the basis of these measurements, we validated the model by comparing predictions to the leaching profile of QB from a PEBAX matrix into physiologically representative media. Toxicity data are not available to estimate a safe level of exposure to QB, as a result, we used a Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) value for QB of 90 µg/adult/day. Because only 30% of the QB is released in the first day of leaching for our film thickness and calculated D, we demonstrate that a device may contain significantly more color additive than the TTC value without giving rise to a toxicological concern. The findings suggest that an initial screening-level risk assessment of color additives and other potentially toxic compounds found in device polymers can be improved. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 106B: 310-319, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.

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Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo

2015-04-01

This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.

A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2010-01-01

This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

Public risk perception of food additives and food scares. The case in Suzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Linhai; Zhong, Yingqi; Shan, Lijie; Qin, Wei

2013-11-01

This study examined the factors affecting public risk perception of food additive safety and possible resulting food scares using a survey conducted in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. The model was proposed based on literature relating to the role of risk perception and information perception of public purchase intention under food scares. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used for data analysis. The results showed that attitude towards behavior, subjective norm and information perception exerted moderate to high effect on food scares, and the effects were also mediated by risk perceptions of additive safety. Significant covariance was observed between attitudes toward behavior, subjective norm and information perception. Establishing an effective mechanism of food safety risk communication, releasing information of government supervision on food safety in a timely manner, curbing misleading media reports on public food safety risk, and enhancing public knowledge of the food additives are key to the development and implementation of food safety risk management policies by the Chinese government. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE ROLE OF VALUE AT RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ASSET AND LIABILITIES

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Petria Nicolae

2012-12-01

Full Text Available ALM is the management of risk at enterprise level, the models used in ALM can be static or dynamic: single period-static models, multiple period static model, single period stochastic model, multi period stochastic model. While single period-static don't incorporate the dynamic of the economical changes the multiple period-static models are an extension of the single period-static model, the most common used are multi-period stochastic which model the evolution of financial series in time and the assets and liabilities using different types of probability distributions (Student, GED. Highly correlated with ALM is the Value at Risk which can be used as and function to be minimized in ALM models. In the Value at Risk methodology the estimation models are classified as: parametric, nonparametric, semi-parametric; we present the parametric models (GARCH models used in Value at Risk and the connections that can be established between ALM models and Value at Risk. We present the Conditional Value-at-risk and offer and example on how to calculate CVaR .

Additional Treatments for High-Risk Obstetric Antiphospholipid Syndrome: a Comprehensive Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffatti, Amelia; Hoxha, Ariela; Favaro, Maria; Tonello, Marta; Colpo, Anna; Cucchini, Umberto; Banzato, Alessandra; Pengo, Vittorio

2017-08-01

Most investigators currently advocate prophylactic-dose heparin plus low-dose aspirin as the preferred treatment of otherwise healthy women with obstetric antiphospholipid syndrome, whilst women with a history of vascular thrombosis alone or associated with pregnancy morbidity are usually treated with therapeutic heparin doses in association with low-dose aspirin in an attempt to prevent both thrombosis and pregnancy morbidity. However, the protocols outlined above fail in about 20 % of pregnant women with antiphospholipid syndrome. Identifying risk factors associated with pregnancy failure when conventional therapies are utilized is an important step in establishing guidelines to manage these high-risk patients. Some clinical and laboratory risk factors have been found to be related to maternal-foetal complications in pregnant women on conventional therapy. However, the most efficacious treatments to administer to high-risk antiphospholipid syndrome women in addition to conventional therapy in order to avoid pregnancy complications are as yet unestablished. This is a comprehensive review on this topic and an invitation to participate in a multicentre study in order to identify the best additional treatments to be used in this subset of antiphospholipid syndrome patients.

Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

1990-01-01

Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

A study on the development of risk perception concerning food additives

OpenAIRE

臼井, 宗一

2014-01-01

In order to study the development process of risk perception concerning food additives, a sur vey was conducted with female college students (sophomores) for sources of information that made them feel insecure about food additives. The main source of the information when they were in infancy and at elementar y school was found to be family (mostly mother); that was teachers when they were at middle school and high school, and that was ...

Additional components of risk assessment and their impact on the probability parameter

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Piotr Saja

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article raises the issue of risk assessment and its impact on the quality and safety of work. During the assessment of the turning lathe position additional components associated with the jobs personalization were taken into account. Paragraph 2 item 7 of the Regulation of the Minister of Laborr and Social Policy of 26 September 1997 on general safety regulations defines occupational risk as the likelihood of an adverse event. The authors drew attention to the reality of the accident, which sometimes depends on the predisposition of the employee. It turns out that a correct estimation of the probability of occurrence of the accident to be able to react in a timely way seems extremely important.. This parameter will be assessed more accurately if we take into account a number of additional components resulting from the characteristics of the employee. The results of the personalized assessment of risk may allow appropriate planning of corrective and preventive actions.

Glycemic Excursions in Type 1 Diabetes in Pregnancy: A Semiparametric Statistical Approach to Identify Sensitive Time Points during Gestation

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Resmi Gupta

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. To examine the gestational glycemic profile and identify specific times during pregnancy that variability in glucose levels, measured by change in velocity and acceleration/deceleration of blood glucose fluctuations, is associated with delivery of a large-for-gestational-age (LGA baby, in women with type 1 diabetes. Methods. Retrospective analysis of capillary blood glucose levels measured multiple times daily throughout gestation in women with type 1 diabetes was performed using semiparametric mixed models. Results. Velocity and acceleration/deceleration in glucose levels varied across gestation regardless of delivery outcome. Compared to women delivering LGA babies, those delivering babies appropriate for gestational age exhibited significantly smaller rates of change and less variation in glucose levels between 180 days of gestation and birth. Conclusions. Use of innovative statistical methods enabled detection of gestational intervals in which blood glucose fluctuation parameters might influence the likelihood of delivering LGA baby in mothers with type 1 diabetes. Understanding dynamics and being able to visualize gestational changes in blood glucose are a potentially useful tool to assist care providers in determining the optimal timing to initiate continuous glucose monitoring.

Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi

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Gebhardt Albrecht

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health issue in Burundi in terms of both morbidity and mortality, with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is still the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Because of the severe health and economic burden of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies/researches have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria transmission. This paper considers the modelling of the dependence of malaria cases on spatial determinants and climatic covariates including rainfall, temperature and humidity in Burundi. Methods The analysis carried out in this work exploits real monthly data collected in the area of Burundi over 12 years (1996-2007. Semi-parametric regression models are used. The spatial analysis is based on a geo-additive model using provinces as the geographic units of study. The spatial effect is split into structured (correlated and unstructured (uncorrelated components. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The effects of the continuous covariates are modelled by cubic p-splines with 20 equidistant knots and second order random walk penalty. For the spatially correlated effect, Markov random field prior is chosen. The spatially uncorrelated effects are assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian. The effects of climatic covariates and the effects of other spatial determinants are estimated simultaneously in a unified regression framework. Results The results obtained from the proposed model suggest that although malaria incidence in a given month is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous months, regional patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables have been identified

Anticardiolipin antibodies in proliferative diabetic retinopathy: An additional risk factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahin, Maha; ElDiasty, Amany M; Mabed, Mohamed

2009-01-01

To report the prevalence of anticardiolipin antibodies in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) having high-risk criteria (HRC). Diabetic patients having PDR with HRC and diabetics free of retinopathy were compared for the presence of anticardiolipin antibodies. Among the 34 patients, 6 (17.7%) of diabetics having PDR with HRC were positive for anticardiolipin antibodies. There was no significant association of aCL antibodies with sex or type of diabetes. Using Pearson's correlation test, no significant associations of aCL antibodies with duration of diabetes or age of patients were found. All patients who were positive for anticardiolipin antibodies had PDR with HRC. The difference was statistically significant. Presence of anticardiolipin antibodies may represent an additional risk factor for PDR. (author)

Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: What are the risks to human health?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lagriffoul, A. [Agence Francaise de Securite Sanitaire de l' Environnement et du Travail, 253, avenue du General Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Boudenne, J.L. [Universite de Provence, Laboratoire Chimie Provence, UMR6264, 3 Place Victor Hugo case 29 13331 Marseille CEDEX 3 (France); Absi, R. [Institut Polytechnique Saint-Louis, Ecole de Biologie Industrielle, Laboratoire EBInnov, 32 Boulevard du Port, 95094 Cergy-Pontoise (France); Ballet, J.J. [Laboratoire d' immunologie et immunopathologie, Centre hospitalo-universitaire de Caen, avenue de la cote de nacre 14000 Caen (France); Berjeaud, J.M. [Universite de Poitiers, Laboratoire de Chimie et Microbiologie de l' Eau, UMR6008, 40 avenue du recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers CEDEX (France); Chevalier, S. [Universite de Rouen, Laboratoire de Microbiologie du Froid, Signaux et Micro-Environnement, EA 4312, Normandie Securite Sanitaire, 55 rue St Germain, 27000 Evreux (France); Creppy, E.E. [Universite Bordeaux 2, UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques, Laboratoire de Toxicologie, 146, rue Leo-Saignat, 33076 Bordeaux CEDEX (France); Gilli, E. [Universite Paris 8, Departement de geographie, 2, rue de la Liberte, 93526 Saint Denis CEDEX (France); UMR Espace 6012, 98 bd Edouard Herriot, 06204, Nice, CEDEX 3 (France); Gadonna, J.P. [Institut Polytechnique Saint-Louis, Ecole de Biologie Industrielle, Laboratoire EBInnov, 32 Boulevard du Port, 95094 Cergy-Pontoise (France); Gadonna-Widehem, P. [Institut Polytechnique LaSalle Beauvais, departement STAI, rue P. Waguet BP 30313, 60026 Beauvais CEDEX (France); Morris, C.E. [INRA, Unite de Pathologie Vegetale UR407, F-84140 Montfavet (France); Zini, S., E-mail: sylvie.zini@afsset.fr [Agence Francaise de Securite Sanitaire de l' Environnement et du Travail, 253, avenue du General Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

2010-03-01

For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: what are the risks to human health?

Science.gov (United States)

Lagriffoul, A; Boudenne, J L; Absi, R; Ballet, J J; Berjeaud, J M; Chevalier, S; Creppy, E E; Gilli, E; Gadonna, J P; Gadonna-Widehem, P; Morris, C E; Zini, S

2010-03-01

For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

Bacterial-based additives for the production of artificial snow: What are the risks to human health?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagriffoul, A.; Boudenne, J.L.; Absi, R.; Ballet, J.J.; Berjeaud, J.M.; Chevalier, S.; Creppy, E.E.; Gilli, E.; Gadonna, J.P.; Gadonna-Widehem, P.; Morris, C.E.; Zini, S.

2010-01-01

For around two decades, artificial snow has been used by numerous winter sports resorts to ensure good snow cover at low altitude areas or more generally, to lengthen the skiing season. Biological additives derived from certain bacteria are regularly used to make artificial snow. However, the use of these additives has raised doubts concerning the potential impact on human health and the environment. In this context, the French health authorities have requested the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (Afsset) to assess the health risks resulting from the use of such additives. The health risk assessment was based on a review of the scientific literature, supplemented by professional consultations and expertise. Biological or chemical hazards from additives derived from the ice nucleation active bacterium Pseudomonas syringae were characterised. Potential health hazards to humans were considered in terms of infectious, toxic and allergenic capacities with respect to human populations liable to be exposed and the means of possible exposure. Taking into account these data, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out, according to four exposure scenarios, involving the different populations exposed, and the conditions and routes of exposure. It was concluded that certain health risks can exist for specific categories of professional workers (mainly snowmakers during additive mixing and dilution tank cleaning steps, with risks estimated to be negligible to low if workers comply with safety precautions). P. syringae does not present any pathogenic capacity to humans and that the level of its endotoxins found in artificial snow do not represent a danger beyond that of exposure to P. syringae endotoxins naturally present in snow. However, the risk of possible allergy in some particularly sensitive individuals cannot be excluded. Another important conclusion of this study concerns use of poor microbiological water quality to make artificial snow.

Adiponectin provides additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis in both genders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin-Ha Yoon

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the relation between adiponectin and atherosclerosis in both genders, and investigated whether adiponectin provides useful additional information for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis. METHODS: We measured serum adiponectin levels and other cardiovascular risk factors in 1033 subjects (454 men, 579 women from the Korean Genomic Rural Cohort study. Carotid intima-media-thickness (CIMT was used as measure of atherosclerosis. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated using multiple logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC, the category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were calculated. RESULTS: After adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, such as age, waist circumference, smoking history, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure and insulin resistance, the ORs (95%CI of the third tertile adiponectin group were 0.42 (0.25-0.72 in men and 0.47 (0.29-0.75 in women. The area under the curve (AUC on the ROC analysis increased significantly by 0.025 in men and 0.022 in women when adiponectin was added to the logistic model of conventional cardiovascular risk factors (AUC in men: 0.655 to 0.680, p = 0.038; AUC in women: 0.654 to 0.676, p = 0.041. The NRI was 0.32 (95%CI: 0.13-0.50, p<0.001, and the IDI was 0.03 (95%CI: 0.01-0.04, p<0.001 for men. For women, the category-free NRI was 0.18 (95%CI: 0.02-0.34, p = 0.031 and the IDI was 0.003 (95%CI: -0.002-0.008, p = 0.189. CONCLUSION: Adiponectin and atherosclerosis were significantly related in both genders, and these relationships were independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, adiponectin provided additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors regarding the risk of atherosclerosis.

Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

2017-12-01

Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Fine mapping in the MHC region accounts for 18% additional genetic risk for celiac disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pulit, Sara L.; Trynka, Gosia; Hunt, Karen A.; Romanos, Jihane; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; van Heel, David A.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Balcker, Paul I. W.

Although dietary gluten is the trigger for celiac disease, risk is strongly influenced by genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. We fine mapped the MHC association signal to identify additional risk factors independent of the HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles and

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing [Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut (United States); Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J. [Prostate Cancer Foundation of Chicago, Westmont, Illinois (United States); Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A. [21st Century Oncology, Inc, Fort Myers, Florida (United States); D' Amico, Anthony V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2016-11-15

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, Brent S.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.; Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A.; D'Amico, Anthony V.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

Operational Cybersecurity Risks and Their Effect on Adoption of Additive Manufacturing in the Naval Domain

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

CYBERSECURITY RISKS AND THEIR EFFECT ON ADOPTION OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING IN THE NAVAL DOMAIN by Michael D. Grimshaw December 2017 Thesis...OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING IN THE NAVAL DOMAIN 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael D. Grimshaw 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Additive manufacturing (AM) has been proven to provide multiple benefits over traditional

A review of the additive health risk of cannabis and tobacco co-use.

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Ellen; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

2016-09-01

Cannabis and tobacco are the most widely used substances, and are often used together. The present review examines the toxicant exposure associated with co-use (e.g., carbon monoxide, carcinogens), co-use via electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and problematic methodological issues present across co-use studies. An extensive literature search through PubMed was conducted and studies utilizing human subjects and in vitro methods were included. Keywords included tobacco, cigarette, e-cigarette, ENDS, smoking, or nicotine AND marijuana OR cannabis OR THC. Co-use may pose additive risk for toxicant exposure as certain co-users (e.g., blunt users) tend to have higher breath carbon monoxide levels and cannabis smoke can have higher levels of some carcinogens than tobacco smoke. Cannabis use via ENDS is low and occurs primarily among established tobacco or cannabis users, but its incidence may be increasing and expanding to tobacco/cannabis naïve individuals. There are several methodological issues across co-use research including varying definitions of co-use, sample sizes, lack of control for important covariates (e.g., time since last cigarette), and inconsistent measurement of outcome variables. There are some known additive risks for toxicant exposure as a result of co-use. Research utilizing consistent methodologies is needed to further establish the additive risk of co-use. Future research should also be aware of novel technologies (e.g., ENDS) as they likely alter some toxicant exposure when used alone and with cannabis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of bullying experiencing additional threats to physical safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Tammy B; Adesman, Andrew

2017-11-23

Objective To examine, in a nationally-representative sample of high school students, to what extent one or more additional threats to physical safety exacerbates the risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of school and/or cyber-bullying. Methods National data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) were analyzed for grades 9-12 (n = 15,624). Victimization groups were characterized by school-bullying and cyber-bullying, with and without additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school, and skipping school out of fear for one's safety. Outcomes included 2-week sadness and suicidality. Outcomes for victimization groups were compared to non-victims using logistic regression adjusting for sex, grade and race/ethnicity. Results Overall, 20.2% of students were school-bullied, and 15.5% were cyber-bullied in the past year. Compared to non-victims, victims of school-bullying and victims of cyber-bullying (VoCBs) who did not experience additional threats to physical safety were 2.76 and 3.83 times more likely to report 2-week sadness, and 3.39 and 3.27 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conversely, victims of bullying who experienced one or more additional threats to physical safety were successively more likely to report these adverse outcomes. Notably, victims of school-bullying and VoCBs with all three additional risk factors were 13.13 and 17.75 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conclusion Risk of depression symptoms and suicidality among victims of school-bullying and/or cyber-bullying is greatly increased among those who have experienced additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school and skipping school out of fear for their safety.

Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Pingsheng; Feldman, Amy S; Rosas-Salazar, Christian; James, Kristina; Escobar, Gabriel; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Li, Sherian Xu; Carroll, Kecia N; Walsh, Eileen; Mitchel, Edward; Das, Suman; Kumar, Rajesh; Yu, Chang; Dupont, William D; Hartert, Tina V

2016-01-01

Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma. We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma) cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI) during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS), mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated. Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI) and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course) were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling) was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pingsheng Wu

Full Text Available Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma.We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS, mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated.Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

2016-09-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (Pgout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

Risk factors for an additional port in single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with cholecystitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Araki, Kenichiro; Shirabe, Ken; Watanabe, Akira; Kubo, Norio; Sasaki, Shigeru; Suzuki, Hideki; Asao, Takayuki; Kuwano, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Although single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy is now widely performed in patients with cholecystitis, some cases require an additional port to complete the procedure. In this study, we focused on risk factor of additional port in this surgery. We performed single-incision cholecystectomy in 75 patients with acute cholecystitis or after cholecystitis between 2010 and 2014 at Gunma University Hospital. Surgical indications followed the TG13 guidelines. Our standard procedure for single-incision cholecystectomy routinely uses two needlescopic devices. We used logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors associated with use of an additional full-size port (5 or 10 mm). Surgical outcome was acceptable without biliary injury. Nine patients (12.0%) required an additional port, and one patient (1.3%) required conversion to open cholecystectomy because of severe adhesions around the cystic duct and common bile duct. In multivariate analysis, high C-reactive protein (CRP) values (>7.0 mg/dl) during cholecystitis attacks were significantly correlated with the need for an additional port (P = 0.009), with a sensitivity of 55.6%, specificity of 98.5%, and accuracy of 93.3%. This study indicated that the severe inflammation indicated by high CRP values during cholecystitis attacks predicts the need for an additional port. J. Med. Invest. 64: 245-249, August, 2017.

Risk analysis of sulfites used as food additives in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jian Bo; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua Li; Zhang, Ji Yue; Luo, Peng Jie; Zhu, Lei; Wang, Zhu Tian

2014-02-01

This study was to analyze the risk of sulfites in food consumed by the Chinese people and assess the health protection capability of maximum-permitted level (MPL) of sulfites in GB 2760-2011. Sulfites as food additives are overused or abused in many food categories. When the MPL in GB 2760-2011 was used as sulfites content in food, the intake of sulfites in most surveyed populations was lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Excess intake of sulfites was found in all the surveyed groups when a high percentile of sulfites in food was in taken. Moreover, children aged 1-6 years are at a high risk to intake excess sulfites. The primary cause for the excess intake of sulfites in Chinese people is the overuse and abuse of sulfites by the food industry. The current MPL of sulfites in GB 2760-2011 protects the health of most populations. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Metals Additive Manufacturing. Great Promise in Mitigating Shortages but Some Risks Remain

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-01

risks for obsolescence man- agement. As we leverage the growth of this new technol- 39 Defense AT&L: November-December 2016 ogy, it will be...such as re- placing a few obsolescent parts or castings and building prototypes. In addition, AM is used to create special tooling in lieu of...improvements in cost and schedule . Similar successes were obtained by the America Makes- funded project led by the Youngstown Business Incubator (YBI) that

Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costello, Alexandra; Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon

2008-01-01

Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

A case control study of possible additional risk factors for chronic alcoholic pancreatitis

OpenAIRE

Sri Vengadesh Gopal; Ashley Solomon; Jaahnavi Konidala

2016-01-01

Background: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is characterised by irreversible damage to pancreas leading to endocrine and exocrine insufficiency with considerable morbidity. Etiopathogenesis is multifactorial with interplay between genetics and environmental toxins. Alcoholism is more commonly associated with chronic pancreatitis. But it is not very clear why only certain proportion of the alcoholics develop pancreatitis. So this study was conducted to find the possible additional risk factors inv...

Smoking, HIV, and risk of pregnancy loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Westreich, Daniel; Cates, Jordan; Cohen, Mardge; Weber, Kathleen M; Seidman, Dominika; Cropsey, Karen; Wright, Rodney; Milam, Joel; Young, Mary A; Mehta, C Christina; Gustafson, Deborah R; Golub, Elizabeth T; Fischl, Margaret A; Adimora, Adaora A

2017-02-20

Cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases risks of poor pregnancy outcomes including miscarriage and stillbirth (pregnancy loss), but the effect of smoking on pregnancy loss among HIV-infected women has not been explored. Here, investigated the impact of smoking on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women, and estimated the potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive women. We analyzed pregnancy outcomes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 1994 and 2014. We estimated effects of current smoking at or immediately before pregnancy on pregnancy loss; we controlled for confounding using regression approaches, and estimated potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions using a semiparametric g-formula approach. Analysis examined 1033 pregnancies among 659 women. The effect of smoking on pregnancy loss differed dramatically by HIV status: adjusted for confounding, the risk difference comparing current smokers to current nonsmokers was 19.2% (95% confidence limit 10.9-27.5%) in HIV-positive women and 9.7% (95% confidence limit 0.0-19.4%) in HIV-negative women. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. We estimated that we would need to offer a realistic smoking cessation intervention to 36 women to prevent one pregnancy loss. Smoking is a highly prevalent exposure with important consequences for pregnancy in HIV-positive pregnant women in the United States, even in the presence of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy. This evidence supports greater efforts to promote smoking cessation interventions among HIV-positive women, especially those who desire to become pregnant.

Separating risk in education from heterogeneity: a semiparametric approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mazza, J.; van Ophem, H.

2010-01-01

Returns to education are variable within the same educational group. If uncertain payoffs are a concern for individuals when selecting education, wage variance is the resultant of unobserved heterogeneity and pure uncertainty. The first element is known to the individual, but unknown to the

A semiparametric modeling framework for potential biomarker discovery and the development of metabonomic profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dey Dipak K

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The discovery of biomarkers is an important step towards the development of criteria for early diagnosis of disease status. Recently electrospray ionization (ESI and matrix assisted laser desorption (MALDI time-of-flight (TOF mass spectrometry have been used to identify biomarkers both in proteomics and metabonomics studies. Data sets generated from such studies are generally very large in size and thus require the use of sophisticated statistical techniques to glean useful information. Most recent attempts to process these types of data model each compound's intensity either discretely by positional (mass to charge ratio clustering or through each compounds' own intensity distribution. Traditionally data processing steps such as noise removal, background elimination and m/z alignment, are generally carried out separately resulting in unsatisfactory propagation of signals in the final model. Results In the present study a novel semi-parametric approach has been developed to distinguish urinary metabolic profiles in a group of traumatic patients from those of a control group consisting of normal individuals. Data sets obtained from the replicates of a single subject were used to develop a functional profile through Dirichlet mixture of beta distribution. This functional profile is flexible enough to accommodate variability of the instrument and the inherent variability of each individual, thus simultaneously addressing different sources of systematic error. To address instrument variability, all data sets were analyzed in replicate, an important issue ignored by most studies in the past. Different model comparisons were performed to select the best model for each subject. The m/z values in the window of the irregular pattern are then further recommended for possible biomarker discovery. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge this is the very first attempt to model the physical process behind the time-of flight mass

Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

Science.gov (United States)

van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

2014-07-01

Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior.

Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costello, Alexandra [Seminole Canada Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada); Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon [Faculty of Management, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB (Canada)

2008-09-15

Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

Additional risk of end-of-the-pipe geoengineering technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Bohle, Martin

2014-05-01

qualitatively from the known successes. They do not tackle the initial cause, namely the carbon-dioxide inputs that are too high. This is their additional specific risk. 'The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors', conclude Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon (2010) when reviewing social and ethical implications of geoengineering the climate. It is to debate in that context that most geoengineering technologies are 'end of the pipe technologies', what involves an additional specific risk. Should these technologies be part of the toolbox to tackle anthropogenic climate change? Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon 2010, Geoengineering the climate: The social and ethical implications, Environment Vol. 52.

Additional prognostic value of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography for coronary risk assessment in primary prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Cournot, Maxime; Taraszkiewicz, Dorota; Cambou, Jean-Pierre; Galinier, Michel; Boccalon, Henri; Hanaire-Broutin, Hélène; Chamontin, Bernard; Carrié, Didier; Ferrières, Jean

2009-11-01

The choice of noninvasive tests used in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases must be based on medical evidence. The aim of this study was to assess the additional prognostic value, over conventional risk factors, of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography, in predicting a first coronary event. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1996 and 2004 (n = 2,709), with follow-up in 2006 (response rate 96.6%). Participants had no history or symptoms of cardiovascular disease and had a standardized physical examination, a cardiac exercise testing, and carotid and femoral ultrasonography at baseline. Incident cases of definite coronary events were recorded during follow-up. Over the Framingham risk score, femoral bruit, positive exercise test, intima-media thickness >0.63 mm, and a femoral plaque provided significant additional information to the prediction model. The addition of the exercise test to the traditional risk factors, then the intima-media thickness and lastly the presence of femoral plaques, produces incremental increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73-0.78, P = .02) and about a 50% increase in the positive predictive value (15.8%-31.4%), with no effect on the negative predictive value (96.4%-96.9%). Physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography provide incremental information on the risk of coronary event in asymptomatic adults. Exercise testing and femoral ultrasonography also improve the accuracy of the risk stratification.

Weekend hospitalization and additional risk of death: an analysis of inpatient data.

Science.gov (United States)

Freemantle, N; Richardson, M; Wood, J; Ray, D; Khosla, S; Shahian, D; Roche, W R; Stephens, I; Keogh, B; Pagano, D

2012-02-01

To assess whether weekend admissions to hospital and/or already being an inpatient on weekend days were associated with any additional mortality risk. Retrospective observational survivorship study. We analysed all admissions to the English National Health Service (NHS) during the financial year 2009/10, following up all patients for 30 days after admission and accounting for risk of death associated with diagnosis, co-morbidities, admission history, age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, seasonality, day of admission and hospital trust, including day of death as a time dependent covariate. The principal analysis was based on time to in-hospital death. National Health Service Hospitals in England. 30 day mortality (in or out of hospital). There were 14,217,640 admissions included in the principal analysis, with 187,337 in-hospital deaths reported within 30 days of admission. Admission on weekend days was associated with a considerable increase in risk of subsequent death compared with admission on weekdays, hazard ratio for Sunday versus Wednesday 1.16 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.18; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 1.11 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.13; P < .0001). Hospital stays on weekend days were associated with a lower risk of death than midweek days, hazard ratio for being in hospital on Sunday versus Wednesday 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.94; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.96; P < .0001). Similar findings were observed on a smaller US data set. Admission at the weekend is associated with increased risk of subsequent death within 30 days of admission. The likelihood of death actually occurring is less on a weekend day than on a mid-week day.

A low socio-economic status is an additional risk factor for glucose intolerance in high risk Hong Kong Chinese

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Gary T.C.; Chan, Juliana C.N.; Yeung, Vincent T.F.; Chow, Chun-Chung; Tsang, Lynn W.W.; Cockram, Clive S.

2001-01-01

To examine whether a low socio-economic status (SES) is an additional risk factor for glucose intolerance in Hong Kong Chinese with known risk factors for glucose intolerance, a total of 2847 Chinese subjects (473 men and 2374 women) were recruited from the community for assessment. They had known risk factors for glucose intolerance including a previous history of gestational diabetes, positive family history of diabetes in first degree relatives and equivocal fasting plasma glucose concentrations between 7 and 8 mmol/l or random plasma glucose concentrations between 8 and 11 mmol/l. The 2847 subjects were classified according to their education levels and occupations: education group 1 = high school or university, group 2 = middle school, group 3 = illiterate or up to elementary school; occupational group 1 = professional or managerial, group 2 = non-manual, group 3 = manual, group 4 = unskilled, group 5 = housewife or unemployed. Different socio-economic groups were well represented in this selected population. The distribution of educational groups in this study was similar to that recorded in the 1991 Hong Kong Census. When analysed according to education levels and after adjustment for age, women in the lowest social class had the highest prevalence of diabetes, body mass index, blood pressure and plasma glucose concentrations. Men with the lowest education level had the highest prevalence of diabetes after age adjustment. The age-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) of having diabetes was 2.3 (1.3, 4.3) in female subjects and 2.5 (1.2, 5.4) in male subjects with the lowest SES compared to subjects with the highest SES. When categorised according to occupation and after adjustment for age, women in the lowest social class had the highest prevalence of diabetes and glycaemic indexes. The age-adjusted odds ratio of having diabetes was 4.5 (1.9, 10.9) in female subjects with the lowest SES compared to those with the highest SES. The corresponding age

Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaus Umlauf

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Stuart G; Schuit, Ewoud; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Pencina, Michael J; Vickers, Andrew; Vickers, Andew; Moons, Karel G M; Mol, Ben W J; Lindeman, Karen S

2014-09-28

An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the addition of a marker with a large odds ratio. Because it is not possible on purely statistical grounds to choose between the odds ratio and AUC, we invoke decision analysis, which incorporates costs and benefits. For example, a timely estimate of the risk of later non-elective operative delivery can help a woman in labor decide if she wants an early elective cesarean section to avoid greater complications from possible later non-elective operative delivery. A basic risk prediction model for later non-elective operative delivery involves only antepartum markers. Because adding intrapartum markers to this risk prediction model increases AUC by 0.02, we questioned whether this small improvement is worthwhile. A key decision-analytic quantity is the risk threshold, here the risk of later non-elective operative delivery at which a patient would be indifferent between an early elective cesarean section and usual care. For a range of risk thresholds, we found that an increase in the net benefit of risk prediction requires collecting intrapartum marker data on 68 to 124 women for every correct prediction of later non-elective operative delivery. Because data collection is non-invasive, this test tradeoff of 68 to 124 is clinically acceptable, indicating the value of adding intrapartum markers to the risk prediction model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increased risk of schizophrenia from additive interaction between infant motor developmental delay and obstetric complications: evidence from a population-based longitudinal study.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Clarke, Mary C

2011-12-01

Obstetric complications and developmental delay are well-established risk factors for schizophrenia. The authors investigated whether these risk factors interact in an additive manner to further increase risk for schizophrenia.

Additional safety assessment of ITER - Addition safety investigation of the INB ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This assessment aims at re-assessing safety margins in the light of events which occurred in Fukushima Daiichi, i.e. extreme natural events challenging the safety of installations. After a presentation of some characteristics of the ITER installation (location, activities, buildings, premise detritiation systems, electric supply, handling means, radioactive materials, chemical products, nuclear risks, specific risks), the report addresses the installation robustness by identifying cliff-edge effect risks which can be related to a loss of confinement of radioactive materials, explosions, a significant increase of exposure level, a possible effect on water sheets, and so on. The next part addresses the various aspects related to a seismic risk: installation sizing (assessment methodology, seismic risk characterization in Cadarache), sizing protection measures, installation compliance, and margin assessment. External flooding is the next addressed risk: installation sizing with respect to this specific risk, protection measures, installation compliance, margin assessment, and studied additional measures. Other extreme natural phenomena are considered (meteorological conditions, earthquake and flood) which may have effects on other installations (dam, canal). Then, the report addresses technical risks like the loss of electric supplies and cooling systems, the way a crisis is managed in terms of technical and human means and organization in different typical accidental cases. Subcontracting practices are also discussed. A synthesis proposes an overview of this additional safety assessment and discusses the impact which could have additional measures which could be implemented

The Additive Risk Model for Estimation of Effect of Haplotype Match in BMT Studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, T; Zhang, MJ

2011-01-01

leads to a missing data problem. We show how Aalen's additive risk model can be applied in this setting with the benefit that the time-varying haplomatch effect can be easily studied. This problem has not been considered before, and the standard approach where one would use the expected-maximization (EM......) algorithm cannot be applied for this model because the likelihood is hard to evaluate without additional assumptions. We suggest an approach based on multivariate estimating equations that are solved using a recursive structure. This approach leads to an estimator where the large sample properties can...... be developed using product-integration theory. Small sample properties are investigated using simulations in a setting that mimics the motivating haplomatch problem....

Mixture of Regression Models with Single-Index

OpenAIRE

Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

2016-01-01

In this article, we propose a class of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index. We argue that many recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models can be considered special cases of the proposed model. However, unlike existing semiparametric mixture regression models, the new pro- posed model can easily incorporate multivariate predictors into the nonparametric components. Backfitting estimates and the corresponding algorithms have been proposed for...

Nonparametric correlation models for portfolio allocation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel

2013-01-01

This article proposes time-varying nonparametric and semiparametric estimators of the conditional cross-correlation matrix in the context of portfolio allocation. Simulations results show that the nonparametric and semiparametric models are best in DGPs with substantial variability or structural ...... currencies. Results show the nonparametric model generally dominates the others when evaluating in-sample. However, the semiparametric model is best for out-of-sample analysis....

Health-risk assessment based on an additive to paints made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Tic Wilhelm

2017-01-01

The results of selected toxicological tests relating to the human health risk effect of the hydroxyester HE-1 – environmentally-friendly additive to paints and varnishes are presented. The test results indicate that HE-1 causes skin irritation in rabbit only when used at its maximum concentrations. No lesions in the cornea or iris were observed in any of the test rabbits after the application of the hydroxyester HE-1. In the mutagenic effect test of HE-1 on the bacteria Salmonella typhimurium, the result was negative. Based on the test results, it was found that the hydroxyester HE-1 may only have a human health risk effect when used at its maximum concentrations.

The Trend of Mean BMI Values of US Adults, Birth Cohorts 1882-1986 Indicates that the Obesity Epidemic began Earlier than Hitherto Thought

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Komlos, J.; Brabec, Marek

2010-01-01

Roč. 22, č. 5 (2010), s. 631-638 ISSN 1042-0533 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : BMI * semiparametric model * generalized additive model * trend estimation * birth cohort effects Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.021, year: 2010

Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura E Pryor

Full Text Available Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence.To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories.Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010. Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child's caregiver (mother in 98% of cases. Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child's perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years associated with each trajectory.Three trajectories of overweight were identified: "early-onset overweight" (11.0 %, "late-onset overweight" (16.6% and "never overweight" (72.5%. Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25, short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57, and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84 were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28 was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group.The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions.

Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Pryor, Laura E.; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E.; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Liu, Xuecheng; Dubois, Lise; Touchette, Evelyne; Falissard, Bruno; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M.

2015-01-01

Background Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence. Objectives To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories. Methods Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010). Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child’s caregiver (mother in 98% of cases). Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child’s perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years) were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678). Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years) associated with each trajectory. Results Three trajectories of overweight were identified: “early-onset overweight” (11.0 %), “late-onset overweight” (16.6%) and “never overweight” (72.5%). Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25), short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57), and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84) were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28) was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group. Conclusions The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions. PMID

Education and risk of coronary heart disease: Assessment of mediation by behavioural risk factors using the additive hazards model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordahl, H; Rod, NH; Frederiksen, BL

2013-01-01

seven Danish cohort studies were linked to registry data on education and incidence of CHD. Mediation by smoking, low physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) on the association between education and CHD were estimated by applying newly proposed methods for mediation based on the additive hazards...... % CI: 12, 22) for women and 37 (95 % CI: 28, 46) for men could be ascribed to the pathway through smoking. Further, 39 (95 % CI: 30, 49) cases for women and 94 (95 % CI: 79, 110) cases for men could be ascribed to the pathway through BMI. The effects of low physical activity were negligible. Using...... contemporary methods, the additive hazards model, for mediation we indicated the absolute numbers of CHD cases prevented when modifying smoking and BMI. This study confirms previous claims based on the Cox proportional hazards model that behavioral risk factors partially mediates the effect of education on CHD...

[The real-world effectiveness of personal protective equipment and additional risks for workers' health].

Science.gov (United States)

Denisov, É I; Morozova, T V; Adeninskaia, E E; Kur'erov, N N

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) of hearing, respiratory organs and hands is considered. It is shown that real effect of PPE is twice lower than declared by supplier; this presumes some derating system. The aspects of discomfort and additional risks are analyzed. The hygienic and physiologic evaluation of PPE is required along with elaboration of an official document (OSH standard or sanitary regulation) on selection, personal fit, organization of use and individual training of workers and their motivation.

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

Science.gov (United States)

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

An Analysis Of Tensile Test Results to Assess the Innovation Risk for an Additive Manufacturing Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamczak Stanisław

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the innovation risk for an additive manufacturing process. The analysis was based on the results of static tensile tests obtained for specimens made of photocured resin. The assessment involved analyzing the measurement uncertainty by applying the FMEA method. The structure of the causes and effects of the discrepancies was illustrated using the Ishikawa diagram. The risk priority numbers were calculated. The uncertainty of the tensile test measurement was determined for three printing orientations. The results suggest that the material used to fabricate the tensile specimens shows clear anisotropy of the properties in relation to the printing direction.

Additive influence of genetic predisposition and conventional risk factors in the incidence of coronary heart disease: a population-based study in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Yiannakouris, Nikos; Katsoulis, Michail; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Ordovas, Jose M; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

2014-01-01

Objectives An additive genetic risk score (GRS) for coronary heart disease (CHD) has previously been associated with incident CHD in the population-based Greek European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. In this study, we explore GRS-‘environment’ joint actions on CHD for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors (ConvRFs), including smoking, hypertension, type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), body mass index (BMI), physical activity and adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Design A case–control study. Setting The general Greek population of the EPIC study. Participants and outcome measures 477 patients with medically confirmed incident CHD and 1271 controls participated in this study. We estimated the ORs for CHD by dividing participants at higher or lower GRS and, alternatively, at higher or lower ConvRF, and calculated the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) as a measure of deviation from additivity. Results The joint presence of higher GRS and higher risk ConvRF was in all instances associated with an increased risk of CHD, compared with the joint presence of lower GRS and lower risk ConvRF. The OR (95% CI) was 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4) for smoking, 2.7 (1.9 to 3.8) for hypertension, 4.1 (2.8 to 6.1) for T2DM, 1.9 (1.4 to 2.5) for lower physical activity, 2.0 (1.3 to 3.2) for high BMI and 1.5 (1.1 to 2.1) for poor adherence to the Mediterranean diet. In all instances, RERI values were fairly small and not statistically significant, suggesting that the GRS and the ConvRFs do not have effects beyond additivity. Conclusions Genetic predisposition to CHD, operationalised through a multilocus GRS, and ConvRFs have essentially additive effects on CHD risk. PMID:24500614

Influence of Additives on Cigarette Related Health Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klus H

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Tobacco additives play an important role in the manufacturing and for the quality of tobacco products, particularly cigarettes and roll-your-own tobaccos. Attention is increasingly given to the potential effects of additives on consumer behavior and health. This review is intended to compile, collate and - to some degree - evaluate the wealth of pertinent scientific information available from the published literature and other special sources. At first, the reasons are set forth for the use of additives in cigarette manufacturing. In response to the growing controversy over the attractiveness and addictiveness of smoking, the clarification of terms and concepts is followed by a detailed discussion of two kinds of substances with particular relevance: Additives like ammonium compounds that are claimed to increase nicotine availability, and additives that are claimed to increase nicotine addictiveness.

Protocol for ADDITION-PRO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Nanna Borup; Hansen, Anne-Louise Smidt; Jensen, Troels M

2012-01-01

disease and microvascular diabetic complications. We also require a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie and drive early changes in cardiometabolic physiology. The ADDITION-PRO study was designed to address these issues among individuals at different levels of diabetes risk recruited from...... Danish primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: ADDITION-PRO is a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of individuals at high risk for diabetes. 16,136 eligible individuals were identified at high risk following participation in a stepwise screening programme in Danish general practice between 2001 and 2006....... All individuals with impaired glucose regulation at screening, those who developed diabetes following screening, and a random sub-sample of those at lower levels of diabetes risk were invited to attend a follow-up health assessment in 2009-2011 (n=4,188), of whom 2,082 (50%) attended. The health...

Estimation of the lifetime distribution of mechatronic systems in the presence of a covariate: A comparison among parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobrowski, Sebastian; Chen, Hong; Döring, Maik; Jensen, Uwe; Schinköthe, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

In practice manufacturers may have lots of failure data of similar products using the same technology basis under different operating conditions. Thus, one can try to derive predictions for the distribution of the lifetime of newly developed components or new application environments through the existing data using regression models based on covariates. Three categories of such regression models are considered: a parametric, a semiparametric and a nonparametric approach. First, we assume that the lifetime is Weibull distributed, where its parameters are modelled as linear functions of the covariate. Second, the Cox proportional hazards model, well-known in Survival Analysis, is applied. Finally, a kernel estimator is used to interpolate between empirical distribution functions. In particular the last case is new in the context of reliability analysis. We propose a goodness of fit measure (GoF), which can be applied to all three types of regression models. Using this GoF measure we discuss a new model selection procedure. To illustrate this method of reliability prediction, the three classes of regression models are applied to real test data of motor experiments. Further the performance of the approaches is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • We estimate the lifetime distribution in the presence of a covariate. • Three types of regression models are considered and compared. • A new nonparametric estimator based on our particular data structure is introduced. • We propose a goodness of fit measure and show a new model selection procedure. • A case study with real data and Monte Carlo simulations are performed

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

2014-02-01

To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Asselt, van E.D.; García-Gimeno, R.M.; Zurera, G.; Zwietering, M.H.

2007-01-01

The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and

An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2002-01-01

Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

Study on risk insight for additional ILRT interval extension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, M. R.; Hong, S. Y.; Kim, M. K.; Chung, B. S.; Oh, H. C.

2005-01-01

In U.S., the containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test (ILRT) interval was extended from 3 times per 10 years to once per 10 years based on NUREG-1493 'Performance-Based Containment Leak-Test Program' in 1995. In September, 2001, ILRT interval was extended up to once per 15 years based on Nuclear Energy Industry (NEI) provisional guidance 'Interim Guidance for Performing Risk Impact Assessments In Support of One-Time Extensions for Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test Surveillance Intervals'. In Korea, the containment ILRT was performed with 5 year interval. But, in MOST(Ministry of Science and Technology) Notice 2004-15 'Standard for the Leak- Rate Test of the Nuclear Reactor Containment', the extension of the ILRT interval to once per 10 year can be allowed if some conditions are met. So, the safety analysis for the extension of Yonggwang Nuclear (YGN) Unit 1 and 2 ILRT interval extension to once per 10 years was completed based on the methodology in NUREG-1493. But, during review process by regulatory body, KINS, it was required that some various risk insight or index for risk analysis should be developed. So, we began to study NEI interim report for 15 year ILRT interval extension. As previous analysis based on NUREG-1493, MACCS II (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) computer code was used for the risk analysis of the population, and the population dose was selected as a reference index for the risk evaluation

Semiparametric nonlinear quantile regression model for financial returns

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Avdulaj, Krenar; Baruník, Jozef

2017-01-01

Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 81-97 ISSN 1081-1826 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : copula quantile regression * realized volatility * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.649, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/avdulaj-0472346.pdf

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methods have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.

Major histocompatibility complex harbors widespread genotypic variability of non-additive risk of rheumatoid arthritis including epistasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Wen-Hua; Bowes, John; Plant, Darren; Viatte, Sebastien; Yarwood, Annie; Massey, Jonathan; Worthington, Jane; Eyre, Stephen

2016-04-25

Genotypic variability based genome-wide association studies (vGWASs) can identify potentially interacting loci without prior knowledge of the interacting factors. We report a two-stage approach to make vGWAS applicable to diseases: firstly using a mixed model approach to partition dichotomous phenotypes into additive risk and non-additive environmental residuals on the liability scale and secondly using the Levene's (Brown-Forsythe) test to assess equality of the residual variances across genotype groups per marker. We found widespread significant (P 5e-05) vGWAS signals within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) across all three study cohorts of rheumatoid arthritis. We further identified 10 epistatic interactions between the vGWAS signals independent of the MHC additive effects, each with a weak effect but jointly explained 1.9% of phenotypic variance. PTPN22 was also identified in the discovery cohort but replicated in only one independent cohort. Combining the three cohorts boosted power of vGWAS and additionally identified TYK2 and ANKRD55. Both PTPN22 and TYK2 had evidence of interactions reported elsewhere. We conclude that vGWAS can help discover interacting loci for complex diseases but require large samples to find additional signals.

Integer-valued time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Akker, R.

2007-01-01

This thesis adresses statistical problems in econometrics. The first part contributes statistical methodology for nonnegative integer-valued time series. The second part of this thesis discusses semiparametric estimation in copula models and develops semiparametric lower bounds for a large class of

Additional risk factors for infection by multidrug-resistant pathogens in healthcare-associated infection: a large cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cardoso Teresa

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a lack of consensus regarding the definition of risk factors for healthcare-associated infection (HCAI. The purpose of this study was to identify additional risk factors for HCAI, which are not included in the current definition of HCAI, associated with infection by multidrug-resistant (MDR pathogens, in all hospitalized infected patients from the community. Methods This 1-year prospective cohort study included all patients with infection admitted to a large, tertiary care, university hospital. Risk factors not included in the HCAI definition, and independently associated with MDR pathogen infection, namely MDR Gram-negative (MDR-GN and ESKAPE microorganisms (vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species, carbapenem-hydrolyzing Klebsiella pneumonia and MDR Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterobacter species, were identified by logistic regression among patients admitted from the community (either with community-acquired or HCAI. Results There were 1035 patients with infection, 718 from the community. Of these, 439 (61% had microbiologic documentation; 123 were MDR (28%. Among MDR: 104 (85% had MDR-GN and 41 (33% had an ESKAPE infection. Independent risk factors associated with MDR and MDR-GN infection were: age (adjusted odds ratio (OR = 1.7 and 1.5, p = 0.001 and p = 0.009, respectively, and hospitalization in the previous year (between 4 and 12 months previously (adjusted OR = 2.0 and 1,7, p = 0.008 and p = 0.048, respectively. Infection by pathogens from the ESKAPE group was independently associated with previous antibiotic therapy (adjusted OR = 7.2, p p = 0.003. Patients with infection by MDR, MDR-GN and pathogens from the ESKAPE group had significantly higher rates of inadequate antibiotic therapy than those without (46% vs 7%, 44% vs 10%, 61% vs 15%, respectively, p

How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baker, Stuart G.; Schuit, Ewoud; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Pencina, Michael J.; Vickers, Andrew; Vickers, Andew; Moons, Karel G. M.; Mol, Ben W. J.; Lindeman, Karen S.

2014-01-01

An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the

[Food additives and healthiness].

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Marina

2014-01-01

Additives are used for improving food structure or preventing its spoilage, for example. Many substances used as additives are also naturally present in food. The safety of additives is evaluated according to commonly agreed principles. If high concentrations of an additive cause adverse health effects for humans, a limit of acceptable daily intake (ADI) is set for it. An additive is a risk only when ADI is exceeded. The healthiness of food is measured on the basis of nutrient density and scientifically proven effects.

Phosphate additives in food--a health risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritz, Eberhard; Hahn, Kai; Ketteler, Markus; Kuhlmann, Martin K; Mann, Johannes

2012-01-01

Hyperphosphatemia has been identified in the past decade as a strong predictor of mortality in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). For example, a study of patients in stage CKD 5 (with an annual mortality of about 20%) revealed that 12% of all deaths in this group were attributable to an elevated serum phosphate concentration. Recently, a high-normal serum phosphate concentration has also been found to be an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality in the general population. Therefore, phosphate additives in food are a matter of concern, and their potential impact on health may well have been underappreciated. We reviewed pertinent literature retrieved by a selective search of the PubMed and EU databases (www.zusatzstoffe-online.de, www.codexalimentarius.de), with the search terms "phosphate additives" and "hyperphosphatemia." There is no need to lower the content of natural phosphate, i.e. organic esters, in food, because this type of phosphate is incompletely absorbed; restricting its intake might even lead to protein malnutrition. On the other hand, inorganic phosphate in food additives is effectively absorbed and can measurably elevate the serum phosphate concentration in patients with advanced CKD. Foods with added phosphate tend to be eaten by persons at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale, who consume more processed and "fast" food. The main pathophysiological effect of phosphate is vascular damage, e.g. endothelial dysfunction and vascular calcification. Aside from the quality of phosphate in the diet (which also requires attention), the quantity of phosphate consumed by patients with advanced renal failure should not exceed 1000 mg per day, according to the guidelines. Prospective controlled trials are currently unavailable. In view of the high prevalence of CKD and the potential harm caused by phosphate additives to food, the public should be informed that added phosphate is damaging to health. Furthermore, calls for labeling

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Science.gov (United States)

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

Posttraumatic stress disorder, alone or additively with early life adversity, is associated with obesity and cardiometabolic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Farr, O M; Ko, B-J; Joung, K E; Zaichenko, L; Usher, N; Tsoukas, M; Thakkar, B; Davis, C R; Crowell, J A; Mantzoros, C S

2015-05-01

There is some evidence that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and early life adversity may influence metabolic outcomes such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. However, whether and how these interact is not clear. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional and longitudinal study to determine how PTSD severity influences obesity, insulin sensitivity, and key measures and biomarkers of cardiovascular risk. We then looked at how PTSD and early life adversity may interact to impact these same outcomes. PTSD severity is associated with increasing risk of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, with higher symptoms correlating with higher values of BMI, leptin, fibrinogen, and blood pressure, and lower values of insulin sensitivity. PTSD and early life adversity have an additive effect on these metabolic outcomes. The longitudinal study confirmed findings from the cross sectional study and showed that fat mass, leptin, CRP, sICAM-1, and sTNFRII were significantly increased with higher PTSD severity during a 2.5 year follow-up period. Individuals with early life adversity and PTSD are at high risk and should be monitored carefully for obesity, insulin resistance, and cardiometabolic risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Yang, C.

2017-12-01

Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

BRAF mutation in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma – additional marker of risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitriy Yuriyevich Semyonov

2014-11-01

Full Text Available BackgroundPapillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC is heterogeneous group of tumor less than 1 cm in the diameter. The volume of surgical treatment stay unstable because unclear biological potential of PTMC.AimThe aim of our study was to assess the utility of BRAF gene mutation as preoperative additional marker of risk stratification.Materials and methodsWe include 44 patient who were operated in general surgery department Pavlov State Medical University from 2001 to 2013. In all 44 cases BRAF gene mutation was detected and compared with clinic-morphological features (multifocality, invasive growth, lymph node metastasis, recurrence retrospectivelyResultsIn our study the frequency of BRAF gene mutation was 68.2%. On multivariate regression analysis the presence of bilateral tumoural foci, lymph node metastasis and the presence of capsular invasion were significantly related to BRAF positive gene status.ConclusionsThus, appropriate volume for the BRAF positive PTMC is thyroidectomy with central compartment lymph node dissection.

A Statistical Model for Natural Gas Standardized Load Profiles

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brabec, Marek; Konár, Ondřej; Malý, Marek; Pelikán, Emil; Vondráček, Jiří

2009-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 1 (2009), s. 123-139 ISSN 0035-9254 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : disaggregation * generalized additive models * multiplicative model * non-linear effects * segmentation * semiparametric regression model Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 1.060, year: 2009

Additive interaction in survival analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rod, Naja Hulvej; Lange, Theis; Andersen, Ingelise

2012-01-01

It is a widely held belief in public health and clinical decision-making that interventions or preventive strategies should be aimed at patients or population subgroups where most cases could potentially be prevented. To identify such subgroups, deviation from additivity of absolute effects...... an empirical example of interaction between education and smoking on risk of lung cancer. We argue that deviations from additivity of effects are important for public health interventions and clinical decision-making, and such estimations should be encouraged in prospective studies on health. A detailed...... is the relevant measure of interest. Multiplicative survival models, such as the Cox proportional hazards model, are often used to estimate the association between exposure and risk of disease in prospective studies. In Cox models, deviations from additivity have usually been assessed by surrogate measures...

Meta-analysis identifies 29 additional ulcerative colitis risk loci, increasing the number of confirmed associations to 47

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anderson, Carl A; Boucher, Gabrielle; Lees, Charlie W

2011-01-01

Genome-wide association studies and candidate gene studies in ulcerative colitis have identified 18 susceptibility loci. We conducted a meta-analysis of six ulcerative colitis genome-wide association study datasets, comprising 6,687 cases and 19,718 controls, and followed up the top association...... signals in 9,628 cases and 12,917 controls. We identified 29 additional risk loci (P associated loci to 47. After annotating associated regions using GRAIL, expression quantitative trait loci data and correlations with non-synonymous SNPs, we...... identified many candidate genes that provide potentially important insights into disease pathogenesis, including IL1R2, IL8RA-IL8RB, IL7R, IL12B, DAP, PRDM1, JAK2, IRF5, GNA12 and LSP1. The total number of confirmed inflammatory bowel disease risk loci is now 99, including a minimum of 28 shared association...

Early expressive and receptive language trajectories in high-risk infant siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie Longard

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background & aims In response to limited research on early language development in infants at high risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD, the current prospective study examined early expressive and receptive language trajectories in familial high-risk (HR infants who were and were not later diagnosed with ASD (HR-ASD and HR-N, respectively, and low-risk (LR controls with no family history of ASD. Methods Participants were 523 children (371 HR siblings, 56% boys; 152 LR controls, 52% boys followed from age 6 or 12 months to 36 months. Based on independent, best-estimate clinical diagnoses at 36 months, HR participants were classified as HR-ASD (n = 94; 69% boys, or HR-N (n = 277; 52% boys; the sample also included 152 LR controls (52% boys. Expressive and receptive language trajectories were examined based on corresponding domain standard scores on the Mullen Scales of Early Learning ( MSEL at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. In the combined sample of HR and LR infants, semi-parametric group-based modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories in MSEL standard scores. Results A 3-group solution provided optimal fit to variation in both expressive and receptive language, with the following patterns of scores: (1 inclining from average to above average, (2 stable-average, and (3 declining from average to well below average. For both expressive and receptive language, membership in these trajectories was related to 3-year diagnostic outcomes. Conclusions Although HR-ASD, HR-N, and LR control infants were in each trajectory group, membership in the declining trajectory (expressive and/or receptive was associated with an ASD diagnosis. Implications Evidence of declining trajectories in either expressive or receptive language may be a risk marker for ASD in a high-risk sample.

Life cycle assessment and additives: state of knowledge

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

is to identify research needs within this area focusing on both risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA). Besides the sectors on paper and plastics also lubricants, textiles, electronics and leather are included in RiskCycle. On plastics a literature review regarding the state of knowledge......Concerns about possible toxic effects from additives/impurities accumulated in globally recycled waste/resources like paper and plastics was one of the main reasons for starting up the EU FP7 Coordination Action project RiskCycle (www.wadef.com/projects/riskcycle). A key aim of the project...... on additives/impurities in LCA has been performed within RiskCycle. Several inventory databases (LCI data) have been investigated and the result shows that most LCI databases use PlasticsEurope data for plastics production. Most of these data are aggregated and do not include additives. Regarding...

STAT4 is a genetic risk factor for systemic sclerosis having additive effects with IRF5 on disease susceptibility and related pulmonary fibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieudé, P; Guedj, M; Wipff, J; Ruiz, B; Hachulla, E; Diot, E; Granel, B; Sibilia, J; Tiev, K; Mouthon, L; Cracowski, J L; Carpentier, P H; Amoura, Z; Fajardy, I; Avouac, J; Meyer, O; Kahan, A; Boileau, C; Allanore, Y

2009-08-01

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) belongs to the group of connective tissue disorders (CTDs), among which are several disorders characterized by a type I interferon (IFN) signature. The recent identification of an association between IRF5 and SSc further highlights a key role for IFN. STAT4, which encodes STAT-4, contributes to IFN signaling, and its genetic variants were found to be associated with CTDs. The aim of this study was to determine whether the STAT4 rs7574865 single-nucleotide polymorphism is associated with SSc, and whether it interacts with IRF5. Both the STAT4 rs7574865 and IRF5 rs2004640 polymorphisms were genotyped in 1,855 individuals of French Caucasian origin comprising a discovery set of 440 patients with SSc and 485 control subjects and a replication set of 445 patients with SSc and an additional 485 control subjects. STAT4 rs7574865 was shown to be associated with SSc (P=0.001, odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.51). This association was not restricted to a particular phenotype. An additive effect of the STAT4 rs7574865 T allele and the IRF5 rs2004640 T allele was observed, resulting in a multiple increased 1.28-fold risk of SSc. The OR for SSc was 2.72 (95% CI 1.86-3.99) for combinations of genotypes with >or=3 risk alleles. An additive effect was also detected for fibrosing alveolitis: carriage of at least 3 risk alleles appeared to be an independent risk factor (P=2.2x10(-4), OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.28-3.04). Our results establish STAT4 rs7574865 as a new SSc genetic susceptibility factor. STAT4 and IRF5 act with additive effects in terms of susceptibility to both SSc and SSc-related fibrosing alveolitis.

Exploring spatial and temporal variations of cadmium concentrations in pacific oysters from british columbia.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Cindy Xin; Cao, Jiguo; Bendell, Leah

2011-09-01

Oysters from the Pacific Northwest coast of British Columbia, Canada, contain high levels of cadmium, in some cases exceeding some international food safety guidelines. A primary goal of this article is the investigation of the spatial and temporal variation in cadmium concentrations for oysters sampled from coastal British Columbia. Such information is important so that recommendations can be made as to where and when oysters can be cultured such that accumulation of cadmium within these oysters is minimized. Some modern statistical methods are applied to achieve this goal, including monotone spline smoothing, functional principal component analysis, and semi-parametric additive modeling. Oyster growth rates are estimated as the first derivatives of the monotone smoothing growth curves. Some important patterns in cadmium accumulation by oysters are observed. For example, most inland regions tend to have a higher level of cadmium concentration than most coastal regions, so more caution needs to be taken for shellfish aquaculture practices occurring in the inland regions. The semi-parametric additive modeling shows that oyster cadmium concentration decreases with oyster length, and oysters sampled at 7 m have higher average cadmium concentration than those sampled at 1 m. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

Additive prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction to the TIMI risk score for in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xue-Biao; Liu, Yuan-Hui; He, Peng-Cheng; Jiang, Lei; Zhou, Ying-Ling; Chen, Ji-Yan; Tan, Ning; Yu, Dan-Qing

2017-01-01

To investigate whether the addition of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the TIMI risk score enhances the prediction of in-hospital and long-term death in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. 673 patients with STEMI were divided into three groups based on TIMI risk score for STEMI: low-risk group (TIMI ≤3, n = 213), moderate-risk group (TIMI 4-6, n = 285), and high-risk group (TIMI ≥7, n = 175). The predictive value was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk predictors. The rates of in-hospital death (0.5 vs 3.2 vs 10.3 %, p risk group. Multivariate analysis showed that TIMI risk score (OR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.04-1.48, P = 0.015) and LVEF (OR 3.85, 95 % CI 1.58-10.43, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. LVEF had good predictive value for in-hospital death (AUC: 0.838 vs 0.803, p = 0.571) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.743 vs 0.728, p = 0.775), which was similar to TIMI risk score. When compared with the TIMI risk score alone, the addition of LVEF was associated with significant improvements in predicting in-hospital (AUC: 0.854 vs 0.803, p = 0.033) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.763 vs 0.728, p = 0.016). The addition of LVEF to TIMI risk score enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.864 for in-hospital death, p value to TIMI risk score.

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Genetic predisposition to coronary heart disease and stroke using an additive genetic risk score: A population-based study in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Yiannakouris, N.; Katsoulis, M.; Dilis, V.; Parnell, L.D.; Trichopoulos, D.; Ordovas, J.M.; Trichopoulou, A.

2012-01-01

Objective To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether this GRS also predicts incident stroke. Methods Genotypes at nine CHD-relevant SNPs were determined in 494 cases of incident CHD, 320 cases of incident stroke and 1345 unaffected controls drawn from the population-based Greek component of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. An additive GRS was calculated for each study participant by adding one unit for the presence of each high-risk allele multiplied by the estimated effect size of that allele in the discovery samples. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression. Results The GRS was significantly associated with the incidence of CHD where the odds of CHD incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.74 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25–2.43, p for trend = 0.0004), compared to the lowest quintile. With respect to stroke, a weaker and non-significant positive association with GRS was apparent as the odds of stroke incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.36 times higher (95% CI = 0.90–2.06, p for trend = 0.188), compared to the lowest quintile. Conclusion A GRS relying on nine documented “CHD-specific” SNPs is significantly predictive of CHD but it was not found to be statistically significantly associated with incident stroke. PMID:22429504

Health-risk assessment based on an additive to paints made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products

Science.gov (United States)

Jan Tic, Wilhelm

2017-10-01

Solvents are primarily used for making protective coatings. Considering their chemical nature, there are a great variety of coatings, including those based on liquid hydrocarbons and organic chloroderivatives. These products are a serious load to the environment because of their physicochemical properties, therefore, they have for some time been replaced with more-environmentally friendly, new generation products. One of them is the hydroxyester HE-1: made from isobutyric aldehyde condensation products, it is an alternative to those coalescents for paints and varnishes which are intended to be replaced or their use restricted. The results of selected toxicological tests relating to the human health risk effect of the hydroxyester HE-1 - environmentally-friendly additive to paints and varnishes are presented. The test results indicate that HE-1 causes skin irritation in rabbit only when used at its maximum concentrations. No lesions in the cornea or iris were observed in any of the test rabbits after the application of the hydroxyester HE-1. In the mutagenic effect test of HE-1 on the bacteria Salmonella typhimurium, the result was negative. Based on the test results, it was found that the hydroxyester HE-1 may only have a human health risk effect when used at its maximum concentrations.

A first screening and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and additives in personal care products in waste water, sludge, recipient water and sediment from Faroe Islands, Iceland and Greenland.

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, Sandra; Remberger, Mikael; Kaj, Lennart; Schlabach, Martin; Jörundsdóttir, Hrönn Ó; Vester, Jette; Arnórsson, Mímir; Mortensen, Inge; Schwartson, Richard; Dam, Maria

2016-08-15

A screening of a broad range of pharmaceuticals and additives in personal care products (PPCPs) in sub-arctic locations of the Faroe Islands (FO), Iceland (IS) and Greenland (GL) was conducted. In total 36 pharmaceuticals including some metabolites, and seven additives in personal care products were investigated in influent and effluent waters as well as sludge of waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) and in water and sediment of recipients. Concentrations and distribution patterns for PPCPs discharged via sewage lines (SLs) to the marine environment were assessed. Of the 36 pharmaceuticals or metabolites analysed 33 were found close to or above the limit of detection (LOD) in all or a part of the samples. All of the seven investigated additives in personal care products were detected above the LOD. Some of the analysed PPCPs occurred in every or almost every sample. Among these were diclofenac, ibuprofen, lidocaine, naproxen, metformin, citalopram, venlafaxine, amiloride, furosemide, metoprolol, sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) and cetrimonium salt (ATAC-C16). Additionally, the study encompasses ecotoxicological risk assessment of 2/3 of the analysed PPCPs in recipient and diluted effluent waters. For candesartan only a small margin to levels with inacceptable risks was observed in diluted effluent waters at two locations (FO). Chronical risks for aquatic organisms staying and/or living around WWTP effluent pipe-outlets were indicated for 17β-estradiol and estriol in the three countries. Additives in PCPs were found to pose the largest risk to the aquatic environment. The surfactants CAPB and ATAC-C16 were found in concentrations resulting in risk factors up to 375 for CAPB and 165 for ATAC-C16 in recipients for diluted effluents from Iggia, Nuuk (GL) and Torshavn (FO) respectively. These results demonstrates a potentially high ecological risk stemming from discharge of surfactants as used in household and industrial detergents as well as additives in personal care

Quantifying discrimination of Framingham risk functions with different survival C statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Song, Linye

2012-07-10

Cardiovascular risk prediction functions offer an important diagnostic tool for clinicians and patients themselves. They are usually constructed with the use of parametric or semi-parametric survival regression models. It is essential to be able to evaluate the performance of these models, preferably with summaries that offer natural and intuitive interpretations. The concept of discrimination, popular in the logistic regression context, has been extended to survival analysis. However, the extension is not unique. In this paper, we define discrimination in survival analysis as the model's ability to separate those with longer event-free survival from those with shorter event-free survival within some time horizon of interest. This definition remains consistent with that used in logistic regression, in the sense that it assesses how well the model-based predictions match the observed data. Practical and conceptual examples and numerical simulations are employed to examine four C statistics proposed in the literature to evaluate the performance of survival models. We observe that they differ in the numerical values and aspects of discrimination that they capture. We conclude that the index proposed by Harrell is the most appropriate to capture discrimination described by the above definition. We suggest researchers report which C statistic they are using, provide a rationale for their selection, and be aware that comparing different indices across studies may not be meaningful. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Portfolio management under sudden changes in volatility and heterogeneous investment horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Viviana; Lucey, Brian M.

2007-03-01

We analyze the implications for portfolio management of accounting for conditional heteroskedasticity and sudden changes in volatility, based on a sample of weekly data of the Dow Jones Country Titans, the CBT-municipal bond, spot and futures prices of commodities for the period 1992-2005. To that end, we first proceed to utilize the ICSS algorithm to detect long-term volatility shifts, and incorporate that information into PGARCH models fitted to the returns series. At the next stage, we simulate returns series and compute a wavelet-based value at risk, which takes into consideration the investor's time horizon. We repeat the same procedure for artificial data generated from semi-parametric estimates of the distribution functions of returns, which account for fat tails. Our estimation results show that neglecting GARCH effects and volatility shifts may lead to an overestimation of financial risk at different time horizons. In addition, we conclude that investors benefit from holding commodities as their low or even negative correlation with stock and bond indices contribute to portfolio diversification.

Meat and bone meal and mineral feed additives may increase the risk of oral prion disease transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christopher J.; McKenzie, Debbie; Pedersen, Joel A.; Aiken, Judd M.

2011-01-01

Ingestion of prion-contaminated materials is postulated to be a primary route of prion disease transmission. Binding of prions to soil (micro)particles dramatically enhances peroral disease transmission relative to unbound prions, and it was hypothesized that micrometer-sized particles present in other consumed materials may affect prion disease transmission via the oral route of exposure. Small, insoluble particles are present in many substances, including soil, human foods, pharmaceuticals, and animal feeds. It is known that meat and bone meal (MBM), a feed additive believed responsible for the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), contains particles smaller than 20 μm and that the pathogenic prion protein binds to MBM. The potentiation of disease transmission via the oral route by exposure to MBM or three micrometer-sized mineral feed additives was determined. Data showed that when the disease agent was bound to any of the tested materials, the penetrance of disease was increased compared to unbound prions. Our data suggest that in feed or other prion-contaminated substances consumed by animals or, potentially, humans, the addition of MBM or the presence of microparticles could heighten risks of prion disease acquisition.

Semiparametric Item Response Functions in the Context of Guessing

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Carl F.; Cai, Li

2016-01-01

We present a logistic function of a monotonic polynomial with a lower asymptote, allowing additional flexibility beyond the three-parameter logistic model. We develop a maximum marginal likelihood-based approach to estimate the item parameters. The new item response model is demonstrated on math assessment data from a state, and a computationally…

Increased bioclogging and corrosion risk by sulfate addition during iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Choon-Ping; Zhao, Dan; Takase, Yuta; Miyanaga, Kazuhiko; Watanabe, Tomoko; Tomoe, Yasuyoshi; Tanji, Yasunori

2011-02-01

Iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant in Japan involved the addition of sulfuric acid for pH adjustment, resulting in an additional about 200 mg/L of sulfate in the waste brine after iodine recovery. Bioclogging occurred at the waste brine injection well, causing a decrease in well injectivity. To examine the factors that contribute to bioclogging, an on-site experiment was conducted by amending 10 L of brine with different conditions and then incubating the brine for 5 months under open air. The control case was exposed to open air but did not receive additional chemicals. When sulfate addition was coupled with low iodine, there was a drastic increase in the total amount of accumulated biomass (and subsequently the risk of bioclogging) that was nearly six times higher than the control. The bioclogging-associated corrosion rate of carbon steel was 84.5 μm/year, which is four times higher than that observed under other conditions. Analysis of the microbial communities by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis revealed that the additional sulfate established a sulfur cycle and induced the growth of phototrophic bacteria, including cyanobacteria and purple bacteria. In the presence of sulfate and low iodine levels, cyanobacteria and purple bacteria bloomed, and the accumulation of abundant biomass may have created a more conducive environment for anaerobic sulfate-reducing bacteria. It is believed that the higher corrosion rate was caused by a differential aeration cell that was established by the heterogeneous distribution of the biomass that covered the surface of the test coupons.

Prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes B and C colorectal cancer: a retrospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Diamantis, N; Xynos, I D; Amptulah, S; Karadima, M; Skopelitis, H; Tsavaris, N

2013-01-01

To investigate the prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes stage B and C colorectal cancer (CRC). 291 consecutive non-selected CRC patients were studied retrospectively. Twenty-three variables were examined using a regression statistical model to identify relevant prognostic factors related to disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). On multivariate analysis DFS was found to be negatively affected in patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years vs. non-smokers (p<0.016). Additionally, performance status (PS)<90 (p<0.001), Dukes stage C (p<0.001) and elevated tumor markers (p<0.001) at the time of diagnosis were found to adversely affect DFS. Smoking also had a significant association with relapse. Patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years had 2.45 (p<0.018) higher risk of recurrence compared to patients with no smoking history. OS was influenced by Karnofsky performance status (PS), Dukes stage, and elevated tumor markers. In particular patients with PS< 90 had a 4.69-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than patients with better PS. Stage C disease was associated with 2.27-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than stage B disease, and patients with elevated tumor markers at the time of diagnosis had 2.74-fold higher risk of death (p<0.014) when compared to those whose tumor markers were normal at presentation. Our study associates smoking and relapse incidence in non-clinical- trial CRC patients and reiterates the prognostic significance of PS, stage and tumor markers at the time of diagnosis.

Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Weissman-Miller, Deborah

2013-11-02

Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

Use and groundwater risk potential of additives in heat transfer fluids for borehole heat exchangers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilieva, Dafina

2014-01-01

Ground based heat exchanger systems need to be evaluated in terms of potential effects on groundwater quality due to the risk of leakage of borehole heat exchanger fluids. The aim of this work was to identify the compounds which are present in additive mixtures and to investigate experimentally their biodegradability and effects on the biodegradation of the major organic component in borehole heat exchanger fluids. A data survey was carried out in cooperation with the State Ministry of the Environment Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany to collect detailed information about the identity and application amounts of additives in borehole heat exchanger fluids. The survey revealed that numerous additives of various chemical classes and properties are used as corrosion inhibitors, alkalis, dyes, organic solvents, flavors, defoamers and surfactants. Furthermore, it was shown that glycols are among the most often applied antifreeze agents, the main component of the heat exchanger fluids. Based on the prioritization criteria (i) abundance in the borehole heat exchanger fluids, (ii) persistence, and (iii) mobility in the subsurface, the additives benzotriazole, tolyltriazole, 2-ethylhexanoate, benzoate and decane dicarboxylate were selected for further biodegradation experiments. The biodegradation experiments were carried out in batch systems with 60- or 70-m-deep sediments (sandstone or marl) as inoculum. The samples were taken during the installation of borehole heat exchanger systems at two different sites. The microcosms were conducted under oxic, denitrifying, iron- and sulfate-reducing as well as fermentative conditions at the presumed aquifer temperature of 12 C. The major component ethylene glycol was degraded under all conditions studied. The fastest biodegradation occurred under oxic and nitrate-reducing conditions (< 15 days). In all anoxic, nitrate free experiments with marl-sediment fermentation was the predominant process involved in the biodegradation of ethylene

Addition of rituximab to chop does not increase the risk of cardiotoxicity in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Kilickap, Saadettin; Yavuz, Bunyamin; Aksoy, Sercan; Sahiner, Levent; Dincer, Murat; Harputluoglu, Hakan; Erman, Mustafa; Aytemir, Kudret; Tokgozoglu, Lale; Barista, Ibrahim

2008-01-01

The addition of rituximab to doxorubicin-containing standard chemotherapy significantly improves response to therapy and reduces the risk of death in B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) patients. However, the impact of this approach on doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity has not been elucidated. Patients who had been planned to receive CHOP or rituximab plus CHOP (R-CHOP) combination chemotherapy with a diagnosis of NHL were included in the study. In all patients, systolic and diastolic parameters were measured by using conventional and pulsed-wave tissue Doppler echocardiography, which is more sensitive than conventional lead-dependent techniques, both before and in the sixth month of therapy. There were 28 (M/F; 14/14) patients on CHOP and 33 (M/F; 16/17) patients on R-CHOP. Median age in CHOP and R-CHOP was 49 and 50 years (P = 0.44), respectively. Cumulative doxorubicin doses were 280 and 286 mg/m(2) on CHOP and R-CHOP (P = 0.65), respectively. None of the patients developed clinically evident congestive heart failure. Parameters of systolic function such as LVEF and FS did not significantly change in any patients. In both arms, tissue Doppler parameters of diastolic function such as lateral E and septal E velocity of mitral annulus decreased significantly after therapy (P 0.05). Conventional Doppler echocardiography yielded consistent findings. Both CHOP and R-CHOP cause diastolic dysfunction in the early period following their administration. The addition of rituximab to CHOP chemotherapy does not significantly increase the risk of doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity during this period.

GAMLSS for high-dimensional data – a flexible approach based on boosting

OpenAIRE

Mayr, Andreas; Fenske, Nora; Hofner, Benjamin; Kneib, Thomas; Schmid, Matthias

2010-01-01

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) are a popular semi-parametric modelling approach that, in contrast to conventional GAMs, regress not only the expected mean but every distribution parameter (e.g. location, scale and shape) to a set of covariates. Current fitting procedures for GAMLSS are infeasible for high-dimensional data setups and require variable selection based on (potentially problematic) information criteria. The present work describes a boosting algo...

Semi-parametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Žikeš, F.; Baruník, Jozef

2016-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 1 (2016), s. 185-226 ISSN 1479-8409 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : conditional quantiles * quantile regression * realized measures * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.800, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434200.pdf

Do Additional Cardiac Surgical Procedures Increase the Surgical Risk in Patients 80 Years of age or Older Undergoing Coronary Bypass Gragting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korhan Erkanlı

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Aim: In association with increasing life expectancy, the number of elderly individuals undergoing coronary bypass grafting (CABG and additional cardiac surgical procedures are increasing. In this study, we evaluated the effects of additional cardiac procedures and preoperative risk factors for postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients 80 years of age and older. Methods: The records of 29 patients aged 80 years and older (82.86±2.91 who had undergone coronary bypass surgery in the department of cardiac surgery between September 2009 and June 2012, were retrospectively reviewed. The subjects were divided into two groups: group 1 included the patients who had undergone CABG, group 2 consisted of those who had undergone CABG and additional cardiac procedures. Results: The mean age of the patients [14 male (48.3% 15 female (51.7%] was 82.86±2.91 years. The left internal thoracic artery was harvested for all patients. The mean number of graft per patient was 3.07±0.95. Carotid endarterectomy was performed in 3 patients before CABG. CABG and aortic valve replacement were performed in 1 patient. CABG, mitral valve replacement ant tricuspid plasty were performed in another patient. Furthermore, in one patient, abdominal aortic graft replacement due to ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and CABG was performed at the same session. The mean EuroSCORE was 5.06±5.16. Postoperative 30 days mortality was 6.8%, and the mean length of stay in hospital was 10.45±8.18 days. Conclusion: Coronary bypass surgery is an acceptable treatment method in patients 80 years of age and older. Although additional cardiac procedures may increase sugical risks, they can be successfully performed. (The Me­di­cal Bul­le­tin of Ha­se­ki 2014; 52: 14-8

Food additives: an ethical evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mepham, Ben

2011-01-01

Food additives are an integral part of the modern food system, but opinion polls showing most Europeans have worries about them imply an urgent need for ethical analysis of their use. The existing literature on food ethics, safety assessment and animal testing. Food additives provide certain advantages in terms of many people's lifestyles. There are disagreements about the appropriate application of the precautionary principle and of the value and ethical validity of animal tests in assessing human safety. Most consumers have a poor understanding of the relative benefits and risks of additives, but concerns over food safety and animal testing remain high. Examining the impacts of food additives on consumer sovereignty, consumer health and on animals used in safety testing should allow a more informed debate about their appropriate uses.

Planned home births: the need for additional contraindications.

Science.gov (United States)

Grünebaum, Amos; McCullough, Laurence B; Sapra, Katherine J; Arabin, Birgit; Chervenak, Frank A

2017-04-01

Planned home births in the United States are associated with fewer interventions but with increased adverse neonatal outcomes such as perinatal and neonatal deaths, neonatal seizures or serious neurologic dysfunction, and low 5-minute Apgar scores. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists' Committee on Obstetric Practice states that, to reduce perinatal death and to improve outcomes at planned home births, strict criteria are necessary to guide the selection of appropriate candidates for planned home birth. The committee lists 3 absolute contraindications for a planned home birth: fetal malpresentation, multiple gestations, and a history of cesarean delivery. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there are risk factors that should be considered contraindications to planned home births in addition to the 3 that are listed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of all term (≥37 weeks gestation), normal weight (≥2500 grams), singleton, nonanomalous births from 2009-2013 using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's period-linked birth-infant death files that allowed for identification of intended and unintended home births. We examined neonatal deaths (days 0-27 after birth) across 3 groups (hospital-attended births by certified nurse midwives, hospital-attended births by physicians, and planned home births) for 5 risk factors: 2 of the 3 absolute contraindications to home birth listed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (breech presentation and previous cesarean delivery) and 3 additional risk factors (parity [nulliparous and multiparous], maternal age [women home births (12.1 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries; Pbirths by certified nurse midwives (3.08 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries) or physicians (5.09 neonatal death/10,000 deliveries). Neonatal mortality rates were increased significantly at planned home births, with the

Extended Follow-up Confirms Early Vaccine-Enhanced Risk of HIV Acquisition and Demonstrates Waning Effect Over Time Among Participants in a Randomized Trial of Recombinant Adenovirus HIV Vaccine (Step Study)

Science.gov (United States)

Duerr, Ann; Huang, Yunda; Buchbinder, Susan; Coombs, Robert W.; Sanchez, Jorge; del Rio, Carlos; Casapia, Martin; Santiago, Steven; Gilbert, Peter; Corey, Lawrence; Robertson, Michael N.

2012-01-01

Background. The Step Study tested whether an adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5)–vectored human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine could prevent HIV acquisition and/or reduce viral load set-point after infection. At the first interim analysis, nonefficacy criteria were met. Vaccinations were halted; participants were unblinded. In post hoc analyses, more HIV infections occurred in vaccinees vs placebo recipients in men who had Ad5-neutralizing antibodies and/or were uncircumcised. Follow-up was extended to assess relative risk of HIV acquisition in vaccinees vs placebo recipients over time. Methods. We used Cox proportional hazard models for analyses of vaccine effect on HIV acquisition and vaccine effect modifiers, and nonparametric and semiparametric methods for analysis of constancy of relative risk over time. Results. One hundred seventy-two of 1836 men were infected. The adjusted vaccinees vs placebo recipients hazard ratio (HR) for all follow-up time was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.92; P = .03). Vaccine effect differed by baseline Ad5 or circumcision status during first 18 months, but neither was significant for all follow-up time. The HR among uncircumcised and/or Ad5-seropositive men waned with time since vaccination. No significant vaccine-associated risk was seen among circumcised, Ad5-negative men (HR, 0.97; P = 1.0) over all follow-up time. Conclusions. The vaccine-associated risk seen in interim analysis was confirmed but waned with time from vaccination. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT00095576. PMID:22561365

Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simbeye Jupiter S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

Non-additive measure and integral

CERN Document Server

Denneberg, Dieter

1994-01-01

Non-Additive Measure and Integral is the first systematic approach to the subject. Much of the additive theory (convergence theorems, Lebesgue spaces, representation theorems) is generalized, at least for submodular measures which are characterized by having a subadditive integral. The theory is of interest for applications to economic decision theory (decisions under risk and uncertainty), to statistics (including belief functions, fuzzy measures) to cooperative game theory, artificial intelligence, insurance, etc. Non-Additive Measure and Integral collects the results of scattered and often isolated approaches to non-additive measures and their integrals which originate in pure mathematics, potential theory, statistics, game theory, economic decision theory and other fields of application. It unifies, simplifies and generalizes known results and supplements the theory with new results, thus providing a sound basis for applications and further research in this growing field of increasing interest. It also co...

The Role of the Spouse in Early Retirement Decisions for Older Workers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

This paper investigates the determinants of older workers’ early retirement behavior in Denmark. Instead of considering dual retirement we recognize the importance of the spouse in the early retirement decision by assessing the effect of a rich number of spousal variables. Given the grouped nature...... of the data we set up a semi-parametric single risk grouped duration proportional hazard model accounting for right censoring and allows for time-varying covariates, a nonparametric baseline and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that spousal characteristics do influence the retirement decision and significant...

Cognitive Processes that Account for Mental Addition Fluency Differences between Children Typically Achieving in Arithmetic and Children At-Risk for Failure in Arithmetic

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Derek H.; Hutchinson, Nancy L.

2010-01-01

This study investigated whether processing speed, short-term memory, and working memory accounted for the differential mental addition fluency between children typically achieving in arithmetic (TA) and children at-risk for failure in arithmetic (AR). Further, we drew attention to fluency differences in simple (e.g., 5 + 3) and complex (e.g., 16 +…

Improving nutrient management practices in agriculture: The role of risk-based beliefs in understanding farmers' attitudes toward taking additional action

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robyn S.; Howard, Gregory; Burnett, Elizabeth A.

2014-08-01

A recent increase in the amount of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) entering the western Lake Erie basin is likely due to increased spring storm events in combination with issues related to fertilizer application and timing. These factors in combination with warmer lake temperatures have amplified the spread of toxic algal blooms. We assessed the attitudes of farmers in northwest Ohio toward taking at least one additional action to reduce nutrient loss on their farm. Specifically, we (1) identified to what extent farm and farmer characteristics (e.g., age, gross farm sales) as well as risk-based beliefs (e.g., efficacy, risk perception) influenced attitudes, and (2) assessed how these characteristics and beliefs differ in their predictive ability based on unobservable latent classes of farmers. Risk perception, or a belief that negative impacts to profit and water quality from nutrient loss were likely, was the most consistent predictor of farmer attitudes. Response efficacy, or a belief that taking action on one's farm made a difference, was found to significantly influence attitudes, although this belief was particularly salient for the minority class of farmers who were older and more motivated by profit. Communication efforts should focus on the negative impacts of nutrient loss to both the farm (i.e., profit) and the natural environment (i.e., water quality) to raise individual perceived risk among the majority, while the minority need higher perceived efficacy or more specific information about the economic effectiveness of particular recommended practices.

2015 International Symposium in Statistics

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

This proceedings volume contains eight selected papers that were presented in the International Symposium in Statistics (ISS) 2015 On Advances in Parametric and Semi-parametric Analysis of Multivariate, Time Series, Spatial-temporal, and Familial-longitudinal Data, held in St. John’s, Canada from July 6 to 8, 2015. The main objective of the ISS-2015 was the discussion on advances and challenges in parametric and semi-parametric analysis for correlated data in both continuous and discrete setups. Thus, as a reflection of the theme of the symposium, the eight papers of this proceedings volume are presented in four parts. Part I is comprised of papers examining Elliptical t Distribution Theory. In Part II, the papers cover spatial and temporal data analysis. Part III is focused on longitudinal multinomial models in parametric and semi-parametric setups. Finally Part IV concludes with a paper on the inferences for longitudinal data subject to a challenge of important covariates selection from a set of large num...

Randomised controlled feasibility trial of an evidence-informed behavioural intervention for obese adults with additional risk factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Falko F Sniehotta

Full Text Available Interventions for dietary and physical activity changes in obese adults may be less effective for participants with additional obesity-related risk factors and co-morbidities than for otherwise healthy individuals. This study aimed to test the feasibility and acceptability of the recruitment, allocation, measurement, retention and intervention procedures of a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to improve physical activity and dietary practices amongst obese adults with additional obesity related risk factors.Pilot single centre open-labelled outcome assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial of obese (Body Mass Index (BMI≥30 kg/m2 adults (age≥18 y with obesity related co-morbidities such as type 2 diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance or hypertension. Participants were randomly allocated to a manual-based group intervention or a leaflet control condition in accordance to a 2∶1 allocation ratio. Primary outcome was acceptability and feasibility of trial procedures, secondary outcomes included measures of body composition, physical activity, food intake and psychological process measures.Out of 806 potentially eligible individuals identified through list searches in two primary care general medical practices N = 81 participants (63% female; mean-age = 56.56(11.44; mean-BMI = 36.73(6.06 with 2.35(1.47 co-morbidities were randomised. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD was the only significant predictor of providing consent to take part in the study (higher chances of consent for invitees with lower levels of deprivation. Participant flowcharts, qualitative and quantitative feedback suggested good acceptance and feasibility of intervention procedures but 34.6% of randomised participants were lost to follow-up due to overly high measurement burden and sub-optimal retention procedures. Participants in the intervention group showed positive trends for most psychological, behavioural and body composition outcomes

The additive effects of depressive symptoms and polysubstance use on HIV risk among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

Science.gov (United States)

Card, Kiffer G; Lachowsky, Nathan J; Armstrong, Heather L; Cui, Zishan; Wang, Lu; Sereda, Paul; Jollimore, Jody; Patterson, Thomas L; Corneil, Trevor; Hogg, Robert S; Roth, Eric A; Moore, David M

2018-07-01

Among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM), collinearity between polysubstance use and mental health concerns has obscured their combined effects on HIV risk with multivariable results often highlighting only one or the other. We used mediation and moderation analyses to examine the effects of polysubstance use and depressive symptoms on high-risk sex (i.e., condomless anal sex with serodiscordant/unknown status partner) in a sample of sexually-active GBM, aged ≥16 years, recruited in Metro Vancouver using respondent driven sampling. Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores assessed mental health. Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test scores assessed alcohol disorders. Poly-use of multiple drug types (e.g., stimulants, sedatives, opiates, hallucinogens) was assessed over the previous six months. Among 719 predominantly white (68.0%), gay-identified (80.7%) GBM, alcohol use was not associated with increased prevalence of high-risk sex. Controlling for demographic factors and partner number, an interaction between polysubstance use and depressive symptoms revealed that the combined effects were additively associated with increased odds for high-risk sex. Mediation models showed that polysubstance use partially mediated the relationship between depressive symptoms and high-risk sex. An interaction effect between polysubstance use (defined by using 3 or more substances in the past six months) and depressive symptoms (defined by HADS scores) revealed that the combination of these factors was associated with increased risk for high-risk sex - supporting a syndemic understanding of the production of HIV risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Additive Interaction of MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G Polymorphisms with Being Overweight/Obesity on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

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Xueyuan Zhi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Although both methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR C677T and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR A66G polymorphisms have been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, their interactions with being overweight/obesity on T2D risk remain unclear. To evaluate the associations of the two polymorphisms with T2D and their interactions with being overweight/obesity on T2D risk, a case-control study of 180 T2D patients and 350 healthy controls was conducted in northern China. Additive interaction was estimated using relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI, attributable proportion due to interaction (AP and synergy index (S. After adjustments for age and gender, borderline significant associations of the MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G polymorphisms with T2D were observed under recessive (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.98–2.10 and dominant (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.00–2.06 models, respectively. There was a significant interaction between the MTHFR 677TT genotype and being overweight/obesity on T2D risk (AP = 0.404, 95% CI: 0.047–0.761, in addition to the MTRR 66AG/GG genotypes (RERI = 1.703, 95% CI: 0.401–3.004; AP = 0.528, 95% CI: 0.223–0.834. Our findings suggest that individuals with the MTHFR 677TT or MTRR 66AG/GG genotypes are more susceptible to the detrimental effect of being overweight/obesity on T2D. Further large-scale studies are still needed to confirm our findings.

The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

1990-01-01

Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

2015-01-01

Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

Culling decisions of dairy farmers during a 3-year Salmonella control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Dohoo, I.

2011-01-01

Dublin which is the most prevalent and most persistent serotype in the Danish cattle population. A field study in 10 dairy herds with persistent Salmonella infections was carried out over three years to gain experience with control procedures including risk assessment, targeted control actions and test...... animals into risk groups. These risk groups and all individual ELISA-results were communicated to the farmers as colour-coded lists four to six times per year. Farmers were advised to manage the risk of Salmonella transmission from cattle with repeatedly high ELISA results (flagged as “red”) or cows...... if animals with red and yellow flags had higher probability of being slaughtered or sold before first calving than animals without any risk flags. For adult cows a semi-parametric proportional hazard survival model was used to test the effect of number of red and yellow flags on hazards of culling...

Polymorphisms associated with the risk of lung cancer in a healthy Mexican Mestizo population: application of the additive model for cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebeca Pérez-Morales

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Mexico and worldwide. In the past decade, there has been an increase in the number of lung cancer cases in young people, which suggests an important role for genetic background in the etiology of this disease. In this study, we genetically characterized 16 polymorphisms in 12 low penetrance genes (AhR, CYP1A1, CYP2E1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, GSTPI, XRCC1, ERCC2, MGMT, CCND1 and TP53 in 382 healthy Mexican Mestizos as the first step in elucidating the genetic structure of this population and identifying high risk individuals. All of the genotypes analyzed were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, but different degrees of linkage were observed for polymorphisms in the CYP1A1 and EPHX1 genes. The genetic variability of this population was distributed in six clusters that were defined based on their genetic characteristics. The use of a polygenic model to assess the additive effect of low penetrance risk alleles identified combinations of risk genotypes that could be useful in predicting a predisposition to lung cancer. Estimation of the level of genetic susceptibility showed that the individual calculated risk value (iCRV ranged from 1 to 16, with a higher iCRV indicating a greater genetic susceptibility to lung cancer.

Clustered survival data with left-truncation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, Frank; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

Left-truncation occurs frequently in survival studies, and it is well known how to deal with this for univariate survival times. However, there are few results on how to estimate dependence parameters and regression effects in semiparametric models for clustered survival data with delayed entry....... Surprisingly, existing methods only deal with special cases. In this paper, we clarify different kinds of left-truncation and suggest estimators for semiparametric survival models under specific truncation schemes. The large-sample properties of the estimators are established. Small-sample properties...

Apheresis and intravenous immunoglobulins used in addition to conventional therapy to treat high-risk pregnant antiphospholipid antibody syndrome patients. A prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffatti, Amelia; Favaro, Maria; Hoxha, Ariela; Zambon, Alessandra; Marson, Piero; Del Ross, Teresa; Calligaro, Antonia; Tonello, Marta; Nardelli, Giovanni B

2016-06-01

Pregnant women with triple antibody positive antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) who have had thrombosis or a history of early, severe pregnancy complications are generally considered at high risk of pregnancy loss. The objectives of this study were to investigate the efficacy and safety of a relatively new treatment protocol used in addition to conventional therapy in high-risk pregnant patients affected with primary APS. The study's two inclusion criteria were: (1) the presence of triple antiphospholipid positivity, (2) previous thrombosis and/or a history of one or more early, severe pregnancy complications. Eighteen pregnancies occurring between 2002 and 2015 in 14 APS patients, (mean age 34.8±3.6 SD) were monitored. All 14 (100%) patients had triple antiphospholipid positivity. In addition, six of them (42.8%) had a history of thrombosis, four (28.6%) had one or more previous early and severe pregnancy complications, and four (30.8%) met both clinical study criteria. The study protocol included weekly plasmapheresis or immunoadsorption and fortnightly 1g/kg intravenous immunoglobulins. Seventeen of the pregnancies (94.4%) produced live neonates, all born between the 26th and 37th weeks of gestation (mean 33.1±3.5 SD). One female (5.5%), born prematurely at 24 weeks, died of sepsis a week after birth. There were two cases (11.1%) of severe pregnancy complications. No treatment side effects were registered. Given the high live birth rate and the safety associated to it, the study protocol described here could be taken into consideration by medical teams treating high-risk APS pregnant patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background risk information to assist in risk management decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; White, R.K.; Miller, D.B.

1992-10-01

The evaluation of the need for remedial activities at hazardous waste sites requires quantification of risks of adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem resulting from the presence of chemical and radioactive substances at these sites. The health risks from exposure to these substances are in addition to risks encountered because of the virtually unavoidable exposure to naturally occurring chemicals and radioactive materials that are present in air, water, soil, building materials, and food products. To provide a frame of reference for interpreting risks quantified for hazardous waste sites, it is useful to identify the relative magnitude of risks of both a voluntary and involuntary nature that are ubiquitous throughout east Tennessee. In addition to discussing risks from the ubiquitous presence of background carcinogens in the east Tennessee environment, this report also presents risks resulting from common, everyday activities. Such information should, not be used to discount or trivialize risks from hazardous waste contamination, but rather, to create a sensitivity to general risk issues, thus providing a context for better interpretation of risk information

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-05-01

Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven; Jacobs, Kris

2013-01-01

We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is nonmonotonic. A negative variance premium makes it U shaped. We present new semiparametric...... evidence to confirm this U-shaped relationship between the risk-neutral and physical probability densities. The new pricing kernel substantially improves our ability to reconcile the time-series properties of stock returns with the cross-section of option prices. It provides a unified explanation...... for the implied volatility puzzle, the overreaction of long-term options to changes in short-term variance, and the fat tails of the risk-neutral return distribution relative to the physical distribution....

The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling With Applications in the Medical and Behavioral Sciences

CERN Document Server

Lee, Sik-Yum

2012-01-01

This book provides clear instructions to researchers on how to apply Structural Equation Models (SEMs) for analyzing the inter relationships between observed and latent variables. Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling introduces basic and advanced SEMs for analyzing various kinds of complex data, such as ordered and unordered categorical data, multilevel data, mixture data, longitudinal data, highly non-normal data, as well as some of their combinations. In addition, Bayesian semiparametric SEMs to capture the true distribution of explanatory latent variables are introduce

Finding phosphorus containing additives in manufactured foods

OpenAIRE

Lloyd, Lyn; Gillanders, Lyn

2012-01-01

Dietary phosphorous (P) intake is associated with an increased serum phosphate level which is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and increased mortality for people with chronic kidney disease. Dietary restriction of P is an important nutrition intervention as about 50% of daily intake of P is from P–containing food additives. Educating patients on P additives can effectively reduce serum P values over standard care. Avoidance can be achieved by reading the ingredient list to check for o...

Semiparametric regression for restricted mean residual life under right censoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mansourvar, Zahra; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

is not observed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose the proportional restricted mean residual life model for fitting survival data under right censoring. For inference on the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the asymptotic properties...... of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a class of goodness-of-fit test is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and the approach is applied to a set of real life data collected from...

Checking Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model with cumulative sums of residuals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei Jie

2015-01-01

Recently, Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509, 1999) proposed a semi-parametric proportional regression model for the subdistribution hazard function which has been used extensively for analyzing competing risks data. However, failure of model adequacy could lead to severe bias in parameter...... estimation, and only a limited contribution has been made to check the model assumptions. In this paper, we present a class of analytical methods and graphical approaches for checking the assumptions of Fine and Gray’s model. The proposed goodness-of-fit test procedures are based on the cumulative sums...

Radiological risk comparison guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallinan, E.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Brown, L.F.; Yoder, R.E.

1992-01-01

An important aspect of DOE safety analyses is estimating potential accident risk. The estimates are used to: determine if additional controls are needed, identify Safety Class Items, and demonstrate adequate risk reduction. Thus, guidelines are needed to measure comparative risks. The Westinghouse M ampersand O Nuclear Facility Safety Committee and the Safety Envelope Working Group have developed radiological risk guidelines for comparing the risks from individual accident analyses. These guidelines were prepared under contract with the US Department of Energy. These guidelines are based on historical DOE guidelines and current requirements, and satisfy DOE and technical community proposals. for goals that demonstrate acceptable risk. The guidelines consist of a frequency versus consequence curve for credible accidents. Offsite and onsite guidelines are presented. The offsite risk acceptance guidelines are presented in Figure 1. The guidelines are nearly isorisk for anticipated events where impacts are chronic, and provide additional reduction for unlikely events where impacts may be acute and risk uncertainties may be significant. The guidelines are applied to individual release accident scenarios where a discrete frequency and consequence has been estimated. The guideline curves are not to be used for total risk assessments. Common cause events are taken into consideration only for an individual facility. Frequencies outside the guideline range are considered to be local site option (analyst judgement) as far as assessments of risk acceptance are concerned. If the curve is exceeded, then options include either a more detailed analysis or imposing additional preventive or mitigative features. Another presentation discusses implementation in detail. Additional work is needed to provide risk comparison guidelines for releases from multiple facilities and for toxic releases

Are hypertensive women at additional risk of ischaemic heart disease from physically demanding work?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Allesøe, Karen; Søgaard, Karen; Aadahl, Mette

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: The combination of hypertension and high physical activity at work may increase blood pressure considerably and increase the risk of atherosclerosis and thereby ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but only a few studies in men, and none among women, have examined this topic. DESIGN......: This was a prospective cohort study. METHODS: In 1993, 12,093 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort Study, aged 45-64 years answered a baseline questionnaire on physical activity at work, history of hypertension, a selection of known risk factors for IHD and occupational factors. Information on incident IHD from...... baseline to 2008 was retrieved by individual linkage to the National Register of Hospital Discharges. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted Cox model, hypertensive nurses with high physical activity at work had nearly three times higher risk of IHD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2...

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

Skew-t partially linear mixed-effects models for AIDS clinical studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Tao

2016-01-01

We propose partially linear mixed-effects models with asymmetry and missingness to investigate the relationship between two biomarkers in clinical studies. The proposed models take into account irregular time effects commonly observed in clinical studies under a semiparametric model framework. In addition, commonly assumed symmetric distributions for model errors are substituted by asymmetric distribution to account for skewness. Further, informative missing data mechanism is accounted for. A Bayesian approach is developed to perform parameter estimation simultaneously. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS dataset and comparisons with alternative models are performed.

Cannabis use and childhood trauma interact additively to increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in adolescence.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Harley, M

2010-10-01

Adolescent cannabis use has been shown in many studies to increase the risk of later psychosis. Childhood trauma is associated with both substance misuse and risk for psychosis. In this study our aim was to investigate whether there is a significant interaction between cannabis use and childhood trauma in increasing the risk for experiencing psychotic symptoms during adolescence.

Additional investigations on the consequences of accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.; Burkart, K.

1982-01-01

As a first step to improve the accident consequence model of the German Risk Study within the Phase B, additional investigations on special problems and questions were performed. In detail attention is given to the following topics: emergency protective actions in the vicinity of the site; latent cancer fatalities - allocated to the population living during the nuclear accident and to persons born afterwards, within and beyond a distance of 540 km from the site, caused by radiation doses below the dose limits of the German radiation protection regulations estimated assuming a nonlinear dose response function; risk assessments of nuclear power plants with lower capacities; loss of life expectancy after accidental radiation exposure. All results are presented separately for the 8 release categories of the German Risk Study. (orig.) [de

Food additives and preschool children.

Science.gov (United States)

Martyn, Danika M; McNulty, Breige A; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Michael J

2013-02-01

Food additives have been used throughout history to perform specific functions in foods. A comprehensive framework of legislation is in place within Europe to control the use of additives in the food supply and ensure they pose no risk to human health. Further to this, exposure assessments are regularly carried out to monitor population intakes and verify that intakes are not above acceptable levels (acceptable daily intakes). Young children may have a higher dietary exposure to chemicals than adults due to a combination of rapid growth rates and distinct food intake patterns. For this reason, exposure assessments are particularly important in this age group. The paper will review the use of additives and exposure assessment methods and examine factors that affect dietary exposure by young children. One of the most widely investigated unfavourable health effects associated with food additive intake in preschool-aged children are suggested adverse behavioural effects. Research that has examined this relationship has reported a variety of responses, with many noting an increase in hyperactivity as reported by parents but not when assessed using objective examiners. This review has examined the experimental approaches used in such studies and suggests that efforts are needed to standardise objective methods of measuring behaviour in preschool children. Further to this, a more holistic approach to examining food additive intakes by preschool children is advisable, where overall exposure is considered rather than focusing solely on behavioural effects and possibly examining intakes of food additives other than food colours.

Residual tumor size and IGCCCG risk classification predict additional vascular procedures in patients with germ cell tumors and residual tumor resection: a multicenter analysis of the German Testicular Cancer Study Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Christian; Pfister, David; Busch, Jonas; Bingöl, Cigdem; Ranft, Ulrich; Schrader, Mark; Dieckmann, Klaus-Peter; Heidenreich, Axel; Albers, Peter

2012-02-01

Residual tumor resection (RTR) after chemotherapy in patients with advanced germ cell tumors (GCT) is an important part of the multimodal treatment. To provide a complete resection of residual tumor, additional surgical procedures are sometimes necessary. In particular, additional vascular interventions are high-risk procedures that require multidisciplinary planning and adequate resources to optimize outcome. The aim was to identify parameters that predict additional vascular procedures during RTR in GCT patients. A retrospective analysis was performed in 402 GCT patients who underwent 414 RTRs in 9 German Testicular Cancer Study Group (GTCSG) centers. Overall, 339 of 414 RTRs were evaluable with complete perioperative data sets. The RTR database was queried for additional vascular procedures (inferior vena cava [IVC] interventions, aortic prosthesis) and correlated to International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) classification and residual tumor volume. In 40 RTRs, major vascular procedures (23 IVC resections with or without prosthesis, 11 partial IVC resections, and 6 aortic prostheses) were performed. In univariate analysis, the necessity of IVC intervention was significantly correlated with IGCCCG (14.1% intermediate/poor vs 4.8% good; p=0.0047) and residual tumor size (3.7% size risk features must initially be identified as high-risk patients for vascular procedures and therefore should be referred to specialized surgical centers with the ad hoc possibility of vascular interventions. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Additional Leave as the Determinant of Retirement Timing—Retaining Older Workers in Norway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Åsmund Hermansen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Faced with a rapidly aging labor force, increasing the labor supply of older workers has become an important goal for European countries. Offering additional leave to older workers with the option of withdrawing a contractual pension (contractual early retirement pension AFP has become a widespread retention measure in Norwegian companies. Thus far, no studies documenting the effects of individual retention measures on early retirement behavior have been published. The aim of this article is to examine whether offering additional leave impacts the relative risk of withdrawal of a contractual pension. The analysis uses a difference-in-differences approach and examines whether offering additional leave to counteract early retirement impacts the retirement decisions of 61- and 62-year-olds within the next two years of their employment, controlling for a range of different individual and company characteristics. This is achieved by comparing changes and differences in the individual relative risk of retiring early on the contractual pension (AFP scheme in the period 2001–2010 among older workers in companies with and without the retention measure. The analysis shows an overall average increase in the relative risk of a 61- or 62-year-old worker retiring on the contractual pension between 2001 and 2010; however, among older workers employed in companies offering additional leave there has been a decrease in the relative risk. The effect of additional leave is evident both before and after controlling for the selected individual and company characteristics. Thus, the analysis shows that offering additional leave as a retention measure reduces the individual relative risk of withdrawing a contractual pension (AFP in the next two years of employment among older workers between the age of 61 and 62 years.

Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

1996-01-01

In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

Regression analysis using dependent Polya trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J

2013-11-30

Many commonly used models for linear regression analysis force overly simplistic shape and scale constraints on the residual structure of data. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model for regression analysis that produces data-driven inference by using a new type of dependent Polya tree prior to model arbitrary residual distributions that are allowed to evolve across increasing levels of an ordinal covariate (e.g., time, in repeated measurement studies). By modeling residual distributions at consecutive covariate levels or time points using separate, but dependent Polya tree priors, distributional information is pooled while allowing for broad pliability to accommodate many types of changing residual distributions. We can use the proposed dependent residual structure in a wide range of regression settings, including fixed-effects and mixed-effects linear and nonlinear models for cross-sectional, prospective, and repeated measurement data. A simulation study illustrates the flexibility of our novel semiparametric regression model to accurately capture evolving residual distributions. In an application to immune development data on immunoglobulin G antibodies in children, our new model outperforms several contemporary semiparametric regression models based on a predictive model selection criterion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accelerometry-based gait analysis, an additional objective approach to screen subjects at risk for falling.

Science.gov (United States)

Senden, R; Savelberg, H H C M; Grimm, B; Heyligers, I C; Meijer, K

2012-06-01

This study investigated whether the Tinetti scale, as a subjective measure for fall risk, is associated with objectively measured gait characteristics. It is studied whether gait parameters are different for groups that are stratified for fall risk using the Tinetti scale. Moreover, the discriminative power of gait parameters to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale is investigated. Gait of 50 elderly with a Tinneti>24 and 50 elderly with a Tinetti≤24 was analyzed using acceleration-based gait analysis. Validated algorithms were used to derive spatio-temporal gait parameters, harmonic ratio, inter-stride amplitude variability and root mean square (RMS) from the accelerometer data. Clear differences in gait were found between the groups. All gait parameters correlated with the Tinetti scale (r-range: 0.20-0.73). Only walking speed, step length and RMS showed moderate to strong correlations and high discriminative power to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale. It is concluded that subtle gait changes that have previously been related to fall risk are not captured by the subjective assessment. It is therefore worthwhile to include objective gait assessment in fall risk screening. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lack of benefit for the addition of androgen deprivation therapy to dose-escalated radiotherapy in the treatment of intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Krauss, Daniel

2012-02-01

PURPOSE: Assessment of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) benefits for prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated radiotherapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: From 1991 to 2004, 1,044 patients with intermediate- (n = 782) or high-risk (n = 262) prostate cancer were treated with dose-escalated RT at William Beaumont Hospital. Patients received external-beam RT (EBRT) alone, brachytherapy (high or low dose rate), or high dose rate brachytherapy plus pelvic EBRT. Intermediate-risk patients had Gleason score 7, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) 10.0-19.9 ng\\/mL, or Stage T2b-T2c. High-risk patients had Gleason score 8-10, PSA >\\/=20, or Stage T3. Patients were additionally divided specifically by Gleason score, presence of palpable disease, and PSA level to further define subgroups benefitting from ADT. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 5 years; 420 patients received ADT + dose-escalated RT, and 624 received dose-escalated RT alone. For all patients, no advantages in any clinical endpoints at 8 years were associated with ADT administration. No differences in any endpoints were associated with ADT administration based on intermediate- vs. high-risk group or RT modality when analyzed separately. Patients with palpable disease plus Gleason >\\/=8 demonstrated improved clinical failure rates and a trend toward improved survival with ADT. Intermediate-risk patients treated with brachytherapy alone had improved biochemical control when ADT was given. CONCLUSION: Benefits of ADT in the setting of dose-escalated RT remain poorly defined. This question must continue to be addressed in prospective study.

Re-evaluation of azo dyes as food additives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pratt, Iona; Larsen, John Christian; Mortensen, Alicja

2013-01-01

additives to be assessed by the Scientific Committee on Food, many years ago, (ii) because of concern regarding possible health effects of artificial colours arising since the original evaluations.Concerns includedbehavioural effects in children, allergic reactions, genotoxicity and possible carcinogenicity......Aryl azo compounds are widely used as colorants (azo dyes) in a wide range of products including textiles, leather, paper, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and food.As part of its systematic re-evaluation of food additives, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has carried out new risk assessments...

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

Personal and couple level risk factors: Maternal and paternal parent-child aggression risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Meagan C; Rodriguez, Christina M; Baker, Levi R

2017-07-01

Previous literature examining parent-child aggression (PCA) risk has relied heavily upon mothers, limiting our understanding of paternal risk factors. Moreover, the extent to which factors in the couple relationship work in tandem with personal vulnerabilities to impact PCA risk is unclear. The current study examined whether personal stress and distress predicted PCA risk (child abuse potential, over-reactive discipline style, harsh discipline practices) for fathers as well as mothers and whether couple functioning mediated versus moderated the relation between personal stress and PCA risk in a sample of 81 couples. Additionally, the potential for risk factors in one partner to cross over and affect their partner's PCA risk was considered. Findings indicated higher personal stress predicted elevated maternal and paternal PCA risk. Better couple functioning did not moderate this relationship but partially mediated stress and PCA risk for both mothers and fathers. In addition, maternal stress evidenced a cross-over effect, wherein mothers' personal stress linked to fathers' couple functioning. Findings support the role of stress and couple functioning in maternal and paternal PCA risk, including potential cross-over effects that warrant further inquiry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, David; Medhat, Mamdouh; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

2013-01-01

We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of mo...

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

Towards internationally acceptable standards for food additives and contaminants based on the use of risk analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huggett, A.; Petersen, B.J.; Walker, R.; Fisher, C.E.; Notermans, S.H.W.; Rombouts, F.M.; Abbott, P.; Debackere, M.; Hathaway, S.C.; Hecker, E.F.F.; Knaap, A.G.A.; Kuznesof, P.M.; Meyland, I.; Moy, G.; Narbonne, J.-F.; Paakkanen, J.; Smith, M.R.; Tennant, D.; Wagstaffe, P.; Wargo, J.; Würtzen, G.

1998-01-01

Internationally acceptable norms need to incorporate sound science and consistent risk management principles in an open and transparent manner, as set out in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement). The process of risk analysis provides a procedure

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.; Ayers, S.; Holden, D.

2014-01-01

Introduction: Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.\\ud \\ud Methods: A systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that rep...

Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitsui, Seiichiro

2003-06-01

In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

Analysis of Additive Manufacturing for Sustainment of Naval Aviation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

decline and allow manufacturers to explore alternative product designs and supply processes at lower risk. If the aerospace and defense industry...C. SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING During the design and development of new products or systems, engineers must consider the...Bradford L., and Vhance V. Valencia. 2017. “3D-Printing Design Using Systems Engineering.” In Additive Manufacturing Handbook: Product Development for the

Reference centiles for the middle cerebral artery and umbilical artery pulsatility index and cerebro-placental ratio from a low-risk population - a Generalised Additive Model for Location, Shape and Scale (GAMLSS) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Flatley, Christopher; Kumar, Sailesh; Greer, Ristan M

2018-02-06

The primary aim of this study was to create reference ranges for the fetal Middle Cerebral artery Pulsatility Index (MCA PI), Umbilical Artery Pulsatility Index (UA PI) and the Cerebro-Placental Ratio (CPR) in a clearly defined low-risk cohort using the Generalised Additive Model for Location, Shape and Scale (GAMLSS) method. Prospectively collected cross-sectional biometry and Doppler data from low-risk women attending the Mater Mother's Hospital, Maternal and Fetal Medicine Department in Brisbane, Australia between January 2010 and April 2017 were used to derive gestation specific centiles for the MCA PI, UA PI and CPR. All ultrasound scans were performed between 18 + 0 and 41 + 6 weeks gestation with recorded data for the MCA PI and/or UA PI. The GAMLSS method was used for the calculation of gestational age-adjusted centiles. Distributions and additive terms were assessed and the final model was chosen on the basis of the Global Deviance, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwartz bayesian criterion (SBC), along with the results of the model and residual diagnostics as well as visual assessment of the centiles themselves. Over the study period 6013 women met the inclusion criteria. The MCA PI was recorded in 4473 fetuses, the UA PI in 6008 fetuses and the CPR was able to be calculated in 4464 cases. The centiles for the MCA PI used a fractional polynomial additive term and Box-Cox t (BCT) distribution. Centiles for the UA PI used a cubic spline additive term with BCT distribution and the CPR used a fractional polynomial additive term and a BCT distribution. We have created gestational centile reference ranges for the MCA PI, UA PI and CPR from a large low-risk cohort that supports their applicability and generalisability.

Semiparametric mixtures in case-controlstudies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Murphy, S.A.; van der Vaart, A.W.

2001-01-01

We consider likelihood based inference in a class of logistic models for case-control studies with a partially observed covariate. The likelihood is a combination of a nonparametric mixture, a parametric likelihood, and an empirical likelihood. We prove the asymptotic normality of the maximum

Bootstrapping Kernel-Based Semiparametric Estimators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cattaneo, Matias D.; Jansson, Michael

by accommodating a non-negligible bias. A noteworthy feature of the assumptions under which the result is obtained is that reliance on a commonly employed stochastic equicontinuity condition is avoided. The second main result shows that the bootstrap provides an automatic method of correcting for the bias even...... when it is non-negligible....

Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

2015-01-01

Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk.

Risk of adverse events with bevacizumab addition to therapy in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lai XX

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Xi-Xi Lai, Ren-Ai Xu, Yu-Ping Li, Han Yang Department of Respiratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China Background: Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor ligand, has shown survival benefits in the treatment of many types of malignant tumors, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the risk of the most clinically relevant adverse events related to bevacizumab in advanced NSCLC.Methods: Databases from PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library up to August 2015, were searched to identify relevant studies. We included prospective randomized controlled Phase II/III clinical trials that compared therapy with or without bevacizumab for advanced NSCLC. Summary relative risk (RR and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random effects or fixed effects according to the heterogeneity among included trials.Results: A total of 3,745 patients from nine clinical trials were included in the meta-analysis. Summary RRs showed a statistically significant bevacizumab-associated increased risk in three of the adverse outcomes studied: proteinuria (RR =7.55, hypertension (RR =5.34, and hemorrhagic events (RR =2.61. No statistically significant differences were found for gastrointestinal perforation (P=0.60, arterial and venous thromboembolic events (P=0.35 and P=0.92, respectively, or fatal events (P=0.29.Conclusion: The addition of bevacizumab to therapy in advanced NSCLC did significantly increase the risk of proteinuria, hypertension, and hemorrhagic events but not arterial/venous thromboembolic events, gastrointestinal perforation, or fatal adverse events. Keywords: toxicities, angiogenesis inhibitors, non-small-cell lung carcinoma, meta-analysis, safety

[Perceived risks of food contaminants].

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Severine; Lohmann, Mark; Epp, Astrid; Böl, Gaby-Fleur

2017-07-01

Food contaminants can pose a serious health threat. In order to carry out adequate risk communication measures, the subjective risk perception of the public must be taken into account. In this context, the breadth of the topic and insufficient terminological delimitations from residues and food additives make an elaborate explanation of the topic to consumers indispensable. A representative population survey used language adequate for lay people and a clear definition of contaminants to measure risk perceptions with regard to food contaminants among the general public. The study aimed to assess public awareness of contaminants and the perceived health risks associated with them. In addition, people's current knowledge and need for additional information, their attitudes towards contaminants, views on stakeholder accountability, as well as compliance with precautionary measures, such as avoiding certain foods to reduce health risks originating from contaminants, were assessed. A representative sample of 1001 respondents was surveyed about food contaminants via computer-assisted telephone interviewing. The majority of respondents rated contaminants as a serious health threat, though few of them spontaneously mentioned examples of undesirable substances in foods that fit the scientific or legal definition of contaminants. Mercury and dioxin were the most well-known contaminants. Only a minority of respondents was familiar with pyrrolizidine alkaloids. The present findings highlight areas that require additional attention and provide implications for risk communication geared to specific target groups.

Importance of perceived naturalness for acceptance of food additives and cultured meat.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Michael; Sütterlin, Bernadette

2017-06-01

Four experiments examined some factors influencing the perceived naturalness of food products and their biasing effect on risk perception. The results of Experiment 1a showed that three food additives displaying their respective E-numbers (i.e., codes for food additives in the European Union and Switzerland) decreased perceived naturalness. Experiment 1b demonstrated that mentioning possible health effects decreased the perceived naturalness of a plant-based food additive. This experiment further showed that it would not matter for perceived naturalness whether the food was synthetic or nature-identical. Moreover, the results of Experiments 2 and 3 suggested that the same risk associated with meat consumption was much more acceptable for traditionally produced meat compared with in-vitro meat. Experiment 3 further indicated that the perceived naturalness of the meat (i.e., traditional or cultured meat) had a full mediation effect on participants' evaluation of the acceptability of the risk of colon cancer associated with the meat consumption. Even if the new production method (i.e., cultured meat) was more environmentally friendly and less harmful to animals, the perceived lack of naturalness might reduce the acceptability of the risk associated with such a product. The present study provides evidence that consumers rely on symbolic information when evaluating foods, which may lead to biased judgments and decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based approach to developing a national residue sampling plan for testing under European Union regulation for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives in domestic animal production.

Science.gov (United States)

Danaher, Martin; Shanahan, Conor; Butler, Francis; Evans, Rhodri; O'Sullivan, Dan; Glynn, Denise; Camon, Tim; Lawlor, Peadar; O'Keeffe, Michael

2016-07-01

A ranking system for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives has been developed as a tool to be applied in a risk-based approach to the residue testing programme for foods of animal origin in the Irish National Residue Control Plan (NRCP). Three characteristics of substances that may occur as residues in food are included in the developed risk ranking system: Potency, as measured by the acceptable daily intake assigned by the European Medicines Agency Committee for Medicinal Products for Veterinary Use, to each substance; Usage, as measured by the three factors of Number of Doses, use on Individual animals or for Group treatment, and Withdrawal Period; and Residue Occurrence, as measured by the number of Non-Compliant Samples in the NRCP. For both Number of Doses and Non-Compliant Samples, data for the 5-year period 2008-12 have been used. The risk ranking system for substances was developed for beef cattle, sheep and goats, pigs, chickens and dairy cattle using a scoring system applied to the various parameters described above to give an overall score based on the following equation: Potency × Usage (Number of Doses + Individual/Group Use + Withdrawal Period) × Residue Occurrence. Applying this risk ranking system, the following substances are ranked very highly: antimicrobials such as amoxicillin (for all species except pigs), marbofloxacillin (for beef cattle), oxytetracycline (for all species except chickens), sulfadiazine with trimethoprim (for pigs and chickens) and tilmicosin (for chickens); antiparasitic drugs, such as the benzimidazoles triclabendazole (for beef and dairy cattle), fenbendazole/oxfendazole (for sheep/goats and dairy cattle) and albendazole (for dairy cattle), the avermectin ivermectin (for beef cattle), and anti-fluke drugs closantel and rafoxanide (for sheep/goats); the anticoccidials monensin, narasin, nicarbazin and toltrazuril (for chickens). The risk ranking system described is a relatively simple system

Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xue Jinling; Lu Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Hu Hongying; Yu Ruozhen; Liu Zhengtao; Meng Wei

2012-01-01

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF L , which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment. (letter)

Treatment of Unicameral Bone Cysts of the Proximal Femur With Internal Fixation Lessens the Risk of Additional Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilke, Benjamin; Houdek, Matthew; Rao, Rameshwar R; Caird, Michelle S; Larson, A Noelle; Milbrandt, Todd

2017-09-01

Little data exist to guide the treatment of unicameral bone cysts in the proximal femur. Methods of treatment include corticosteroid injections, curettage and bone grafting, and internal fixation. The authors completed a multi-institutional, retrospective review to evaluate their experience with proximal femoral unicameral bone cysts. They posed the following questions: (1) Does internal fixation reduce the risk of further procedures for the treatment of a unicameral bone cyst? (2) Is radiographic healing faster with internal fixation? Following institutional review board approval, the authors conducted a retrospective review of 36 patients treated for a unicameral bone cyst of the proximal femur at their institutions between 1974 and 2014. Medical records and radiographs were reviewed to identify patient demographics and treatment outcomes. Tumor locations included femoral neck (n=13), intertrochanteric (n=16), and subtrochanteric (n=7). Initial treatment included steroid injection (n=2), curettage and bone grafting (n=9), and internal fixation with curettage and bone grafting (n=25). Mean time was 9 months to radiographic healing and 15 months to return to full activity. The number of patients requiring additional surgeries was increased among those who did not undergo internal fixation. There was no difference in time to radiographic healing. However, time to return to normal activities was reduced if patients had received internal fixation. A significant reduction in additional procedures was observed when patients had been treated with internal fixation. Although this did not influence time to radiographic healing, patients did return to normal activities sooner. Internal fixation should be considered in the treatment of proximal femoral unicameral bone cysts. [Orthopedics. 2017; 40(5):e862-e867.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

CERN Document Server

Hopkin, Paul

2012-01-01

Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

Portfolio Decisions and Brain Reactions via the CEAD method.

Science.gov (United States)

Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

2016-09-01

Decision making can be a complex process requiring the integration of several attributes of choice options. Understanding the neural processes underlying (uncertain) investment decisions is an important topic in neuroeconomics. We analyzed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from an investment decision study for stimulus-related effects. We propose a new technique for identifying activated brain regions: cluster, estimation, activation, and decision method. Our analysis is focused on clusters of voxels rather than voxel units. Thus, we achieve a higher signal-to-noise ratio within the unit tested and a smaller number of hypothesis tests compared with the often used General Linear Model (GLM). We propose to first conduct the brain parcellation by applying spatially constrained spectral clustering. The information within each cluster can then be extracted by the flexible dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) dimension reduction technique and finally be tested for differences in activation between conditions. This sequence of Cluster, Estimation, Activation, and Decision admits a model-free analysis of the local fMRI signal. Applying a GLM on the DSFM-based time series resulted in a significant correlation between the risk of choice options and changes in fMRI signal in the anterior insula and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Additionally, individual differences in decision-related reactions within the DSFM time series predicted individual differences in risk attitudes as modeled with the framework of the mean-variance model.

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multiple Imputation of a Randomly Censored Covariate Improves Logistic Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Atem, Folefac D; Qian, Jing; Maye, Jacqueline E; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A

2016-01-01

Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semiparametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.

Polygenic transmission disequilibrium confirms that common and rare variation act additively to create risk for autism spectrum disorders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weiner, Daniel J; Wigdor, Emilie M; Ripke, Stephan

2017-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk is influenced by common polygenic and de novo variation. We aimed to clarify the influence of polygenic risk for ASD and to identify subgroups of ASD cases, including those with strongly acting de novo variants, in which polygenic risk is relevant. Using a nove...

Polygenic transmission disequilibrium confirms that common and rare variation act additively to create risk for autism spectrum disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weiner, Daniel J.; Wigdor, Emilie M.; Ripke, Stephan; Walters, Raymond K.; Kosmicki, Jack A.; Grove, Jakob; Samocha, Kaitlin E.; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Okbay, Aysu; Bybjerg-Grauholm, Jonas; Werge, Thomas; Hougaard, David M.; Taylor, Jacob; Skuse, David; Devlin, Bernie; Anney, Richard; Sanders, Stephan J.; Bishop, Somer; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Børglum, Anders D.; Smith, George Davey; Daly, Mark J.; Robinson, Elise B.; Bækvad-Hansen, Marie; Dumont, Ashley; Hansen, Christine; Hansen, Thomas F.; Howrigan, Daniel; Mattheisen, Manuel; Moran, Jennifer; Mors, Ole; Nordentoft, Merete; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Poterba, Timothy; Poulsen, Jesper; Stevens, Christine; Anttila, Verneri; Holmans, Peter; Huang, Hailiang; Klei, Lambertus; Lee, Phil H.; Medland, Sarah E.; Neale, Benjamin; Weiss, Lauren A.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Yu, Timothy W.; Wittemeyer, Kerstin; Willsey, A. Jeremy; Wijsman, Ellen M.; Wassink, Thomas H.; Waltes, Regina; Walsh, Christopher A.; Wallace, Simon; Vorstman, Jacob A.S.; Vieland, Veronica J.; Vicente, Astrid M.; Van Engeland, Herman; Tsang, Kathryn; Thompson, Ann P.; Szatmari, Peter; Svantesson, Oscar; Steinberg, Stacy; Stefansson, Kari; Stefansson, Hreinn; State, Matthew W.; Soorya, Latha; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Scherer, Stephen W.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Sandin, Sven; Saemundsen, Evald; Rouleau, Guy A.; Rogé, Bernadette; Roeder, Kathryn; Roberts, Wendy; Reichert, Jennifer; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rehnström, Karola; Regan, Regina; Poustka, Fritz; Poultney, Christopher S.; Piven, Joseph; Pinto, Dalila; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Pedersen, Marianne G.; Pedersen, Carsten B.; Paterson, Andrew D.; Parr, Jeremy R.; Pagnamenta, Alistair T.; Oliveira, Guiomar; Nurnberger, John I.; Murtha, Michael T.; Mouga, Susana; Morrow, Eric M.; DeLuca, Daniel Moreno; Monaco, Anthony P.; Minshew, Nancy; Merikangas, Alison; McMahon, William M.; McGrew, Susan G.; Martsenkovsky, Igor; Martin, Donna M.; Mane, Shrikant M.; Magnusson, Pall; Magalhaes, Tiago; Maestrini, Elena; Lowe, Jennifer K.; Lord, Catherine; Levitt, Pat; Martin, Christa Lese; Ledbetter, David H.; Leboyer, Marion; LeCouteur, Ann S.; Ladd-Acosta, Christine; Kolevzon, Alexander; Klauck, Sabine M.; Jacob, Suma; Iliadou, Bozenna; Hultman, Christina M.; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Hendren, Robert; Hansen, Christine S.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Guter, Stephen J.; Grice, Dorothy E.; Green, Jonathan M.; Green, Andrew; Goldberg, Arthur P.; Gillberg, Christopher; Gilbert, John; Gallagher, Louise; Freitag, Christine M.; Fombonne, Eric; Folstein, Susan E.; Fernandez, Bridget; Fallin, M. Daniele; Ercan-Sencicek, A. Gulhan; Ennis, Sean; Duque, Frederico; Duketis, Eftichia; Delorme, Richard; DeRubeis, Silvia; DeJonge, Maretha V.; Dawson, Geraldine; Cuccaro, Michael L.; Correia, Catarina T.; Conroy, Judith; Conceição, Inês C.; Chiocchetti, Andreas G.; Celestino-Soper, Patrícia B.S.; Casey, Jillian; Cantor, Rita M.; Cafe, Cátia; Brennan, Sean; Bourgeron, Thomas; Bolton, Patrick F.; Bölte, Sven; Bolshakova, Nadia; Betancur, Catalina; Bernier, Raphael; Beaudet, Arthur L.; Battaglia, Agatino; Bal, Vanessa H.; Baird, Gillian; Bailey, Anthony J.; Bader, Joel S.; Bacchelli, Elena; Anagnostou, Evdokia; Amaral, David; Almeida, Joana; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Cook, Edwin H.; Coon, Hilary; Geschwind, Daniel H.; Gill, Michael; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hallmayer, Joachim; Palotie, Aarno; Santangelo, Susan; Sutcliffe, James S.; Arking, Dan E.

2017-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk is influenced by common polygenic and de novo variation. We aimed to clarify the influence of polygenic risk for ASD and to identify subgroups of ASD cases, including those with strongly acting de novo variants, in which polygenic risk is relevant. Using a novel

Multi-state modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure: The use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Ieva, Francesca; Jackson, Christopher H; Sharples, Linda D

2017-06-01

In chronic diseases like heart failure (HF), the disease course and associated clinical event histories for the patient population vary widely. To improve understanding of the prognosis of patients and enable health care providers to assess and manage resources, we wish to jointly model disease progression, mortality and their relation with patient characteristics. We show how episodes of hospitalisation for disease-related events, obtained from administrative data, can be used as a surrogate for disease status. We propose flexible multi-state models for serial hospital admissions and death in HF patients, that are able to accommodate important features of disease progression, such as multiple ordered events and competing risks. Fully parametric and semi-parametric semi-Markov models are implemented using freely available software in R. The models were applied to a dataset from the administrative data bank of the Lombardia region in Northern Italy, which included 15,298 patients who had a first hospitalisation ending in 2006 and 4 years of follow-up thereafter. This provided estimates of the associations of age and gender with rates of hospital admission and length of stay in hospital, and estimates of the expected total time spent in hospital over five years. For example, older patients and men were readmitted more frequently, though the total time in hospital was roughly constant with age. We also discuss the relative merits of parametric and semi-parametric multi-state models, and model assessment and comparison.

The decisions taken in 2012 by the ASN: additional requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacoste, Andre-Claude; Comets, Marie-Pierre; Dumont, Jean-Jacques; Bourguignon, Michel; Jamet, Philippe

2012-01-01

After the publication of conclusions of the Additions Safety Assessments (ECS, evaluations complementaires de surete), this document gathers 32 decisions taken by the ASN in June 2012 which specify additional requirements for EDF nuclear power plants, AREVA installations, and some CEA reactors. These measures will lead to a significant strengthening of safety margins beyond their sizing. These decisions impose huge works to operators. They comprise the implementation of an organisation and the construction of premises resistant to a big event which would affect several installations. Other measures concern a deeper training of agents intervening in case of earthquake or severe accident, robust means of power supply for warehousing pools, efficient means to reduce accidental leakage of different compounds, the storing of fissile materials in an installation sufficiently strong to resist earthquakes, and improvements regarding the flood risk management and sodium fire risk management

Semi-Parametric Item Response Functions in the Context of Guessing. CRESST Report 844

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Carl F.; Cai, Li

2015-01-01

We present a logistic function of a monotonic polynomial with a lower asymptote, allowing additional flexibility beyond the three-parameter logistic model. We develop a maximum marginal likelihood based approach to estimate the item parameters. The new item response model is demonstrated on math assessment data from a state, and a computationally…

Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

Applying Emax model and bivariate thin plate splines to assess drug interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Maiying; Lee, J Jack

2010-01-01

We review the semiparametric approach previously proposed by Kong and Lee and extend it to a case in which the dose-effect curves follow the Emax model instead of the median effect equation. When the maximum effects for the investigated drugs are different, we provide a procedure to obtain the additive effect based on the Loewe additivity model. Then, we apply a bivariate thin plate spline approach to estimate the effect beyond additivity along with its 95 per cent point-wise confidence interval as well as its 95 per cent simultaneous confidence interval for any combination dose. Thus, synergy, additivity, and antagonism can be identified. The advantages of the method are that it provides an overall assessment of the combination effect on the entire two-dimensional dose space spanned by the experimental doses, and it enables us to identify complex patterns of drug interaction in combination studies. In addition, this approach is robust to outliers. To illustrate this procedure, we analyzed data from two case studies.

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Development of portal web site for fostering of risk literacy 'risk information navigator'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shobu, Nobuhiro; Mitsui, Seiichiro; Nakamura, Hirofumi

2004-01-01

Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC). In addition to conventional public relation activities, the risk communication study team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with its local communities. This paper reports the design and concept of a web site for the fostering of risk literacy, the 'Risk Information Navigator', that was developed as one of the risk communication methods, and surveys the web site from the user's perspective. (author)

The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garsztka Przemysław

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

Technological risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

1980-01-01

The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

Technological risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

1980-01-01

The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

Engineering risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

1991-01-01

The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

Characterizing chronic and acute health risks of residues of veterinary drugs in food: latest methodological developments by the joint FAO/WHO expert committee on food additives.

Science.gov (United States)

Boobis, Alan; Cerniglia, Carl; Chicoine, Alan; Fattori, Vittorio; Lipp, Markus; Reuss, Rainer; Verger, Philippe; Tritscher, Angelika

2017-11-01

The risk assessment of residues of veterinary drugs in food is a field that continues to evolve. The toxicological end-points to be considered are becoming more nuanced and in light of growing concern about the development of antimicrobial resistance, detailed analysis of the antimicrobial activity of the residues of veterinary drugs in food is increasingly incorporated in the assessment. In recent years, the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) has refined its approaches to provide a more comprehensive and fit-for-purpose risk assessment. This publication describes in detail the consideration of acute and chronic effects, the estimation of acute and chronic dietary exposure, current approaches for including microbiological endpoints in the risk assessment, and JECFA's considerations for the potential effects of food processing on residues from veterinary drugs. JECFA now applies these approaches in the development of health-based guidance values (i.e. safe exposure levels) for residues of veterinary drugs. JECFA, thus, comprehensively addresses acute and chronic risks by using corresponding estimates for acute and chronic exposure and suitable correction for the limited bioavailability of bound residues by the Gallo-Torres model. On a case-by-case basis, JECFA also considers degradation products that occur from normal food processing of food containing veterinary drug residues. These approaches will continue to be refined to ensure the most scientifically sound basis for the establishment of health-based guidance values for veterinary drug residues.

Risk behavior in petroleum exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, P.R.

1992-01-01

In this paper, the author uses the term risk aversion, which weighs the magnitude of investment against four factors: size of available budget, potential gain, potential loss, and probabilities of each outcome. Modern petroleum exploration consists of a series of investment decisions on whether to acquire additional technical data (geological, geophysical, engineering, drilling, or economic) and/or additional mineral interests. Each decision should allow a progressively clearer perception of project risk versus reward and should support timely management action concerning the inferred accumulation. Companies searching for oil and natural gas make hundreds of such exploration decisions each year. So the problem in serial exploration decision making is twofold: to be consistent in the way we deal with risk and uncertainty and to perceive risk and uncertainty accurately and reduce them where possible. Risk aversion is not just a hypothetical nuisance. It causes explorationists to make inconsistent investment decisions, and it costs exploration companies millions of dollars annually in lost opportunities, bad choices, and wasted investment dollars

Toward effective ecological risk-management of refinery corrective action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metzger, B.H.; Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.; Archibald, B.; Clark, J.; Cura, J.

1995-01-01

Cleanup of complex industrial sites, such as refineries, requires risk-based decision tools to ensure that environmentally protective remediation is consistent with current and future land use. However, conventional ecological risk assessment approaches are not well suited for complex industrial sites. Site risk assessments focus on hypothetical chemical risk assuming diverse and undisturbed ecosystems, rather than industrial and disturbed area conditions. In addition, they offer little guidance as to how to make timely and effective risk management decisions. An innovative methodology is proposed to assist industry and regulatory risk managers with rapid EcoRisk reconnaissance and cost-effective remedial decision-making at complex industrial sites. Phase 1 comprises a three-step risk screening of areas of ecological concern at the site, which integrates habitat quality characteristics and potential chemical hazards. It yields an ordering of areas as follows: areas of no significant risk; areas of potentially significant risk; and areas of likely significant risk. A decision rule is then applied to determine appropriate risk management action, including: no action; additional study; and remedial or management action. In Phase 2, additional study is conducted for areas that exhibit potentially significant risk so as to facilitate risk management. This methodology is currently being applied at the 1,300 acre, former Exxon Bayway Refinery in New Jersey

Risk premium and insalubrity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portela, Josmael; Figueira, Rosania Lucia

2005-01-01

The risk premium and insalubrity have been widely discussed in the legal universe/labor. The social and economic impacts interfere on the right of the professional exposed to ionizing radiation to have or not additional rights. Due to the large accidents, with world repercussion, which occurred in recent times, involving workers undergoing these radiation, these professionals are receiving special attention by the competent bodies on the right or not to risk premium and insalubrity. The professional who operates equipment that emit ionising radiation, or those working directly with radioisotopes are undoubtedly under imminent risk, even if they complied with all safety requirements, thus deserving a more careful analysis by our lawyers with respect to receive additional percentages. Recent decisions of higher Courts begin to consolidate a more just and logical reasoning on the subject

College students' drinking patterns: trajectories of AUDIT scores during the first four years at university.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnsson, Kent O; Leifman, Anders; Berglund, Mats

2008-01-01

Changes in AUDIT score trajectories were examined in a student population during their first 4 years at a university, including high-risk consumers and a subsample of low-risk consumers. 359 students were selected for the present study, comprising all high-risk consumers (the 27% with highest scores, i.e. 11 for males and 7 for females) and a randomized sample of low-risk consumers (n = 177 and 182, respectively). The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) was used as screening instrument. Trajectory analyses were made using a semiparametric group-based model. In the low-AUDIT group, five distinct trajectories were identified: three stable non-risky consumption groups (83%) and two increasing groups (17%; from non-risky to risky). In the high-AUDIT group, three groups were identified: two stable high groups (58%) and one decreasing group (from risky to non-risky consumption; 41%). In the integrated model, stable risky consumption comprised 16% of the total sample, decreasing consumption 11%, increasing consumption comprised 13% and stable non-risky consumption 60% of the sample. Gender influenced the trajectories. The pattern of changes in risk consumption is similar to that found in corresponding US studies. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Is there still a role for additional linear ablation in addition to pulmonary vein isolation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation? An Updated Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiaoliang; Jiang, Jingzhou; Ma, Yuedong; Tang, Anli

2016-04-15

The benefits and risks of additional left atrium (LA) linear ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) remain unclear. Randomized controlled trials were identified in the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane databases, and the relevant papers were examined. Pooled relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using random effects models. The primary endpoint was the maintenance of sinus rhythm after a single ablation. Nine randomized controlled trials involving 1138 patients were included in this analysis. Additional LA linear ablation did not improve the maintenance of the sinus rhythm following a single procedure (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.93-1.13; P=0.60). A subgroup analysis demonstrated that all methods of additional linear ablation failed to improve the outcome. Additional linear ablation significantly increased the mean procedural time (166.53±67.7 vs. 139.57±62.44min, Plinear ablation did not exhibit any benefits in terms of sinus rhythm maintenance for paroxysmal AF patients following a single procedure. Additional linear ablation significantly increased the mean procedural, fluoroscopy and RF application times. This additional ablation was not associated with a statistically significant increase in complication rates. This finding must be confirmed by further large, high-quality clinical trials. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briscoe, G.J.

1977-06-01

Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

KAUST Repository

Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2012-01-01

We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

Convertible bonds and bank risk-taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Martynova, N.; Perotti, E.

We study the effect of going-concern contingent capital on bank risk choice. The possibility of debt for equity conversion forces deleveraging in highly levered states, when risk incentives are worse. The additional equity reduces endogenous risk shifting by diluting returns in high states. An

RISK ANALYSES USED IN ACCEPTANCE TESTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oxana STOROJ

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This article is talking about risk based testing approach in user acceptance testing UAT (User Acceptance Testing. There are presented definitions of risk and risk based testing. In addition, we are talking about risks that can appear during UAT and we are describing the process of testing based on risks. We propose some techniques and methods of identifying risks such as using Brainstorming, Delphi method,probability analysis method and others. Also, risk traceability matrix is presented as a method of prioritizing risks.

Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

OpenAIRE

Michel Rochette

2002-01-01

In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

On portfolio risk diversification

Science.gov (United States)

Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

2017-06-01

The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low Fruit/Vegetable Consumption in the Home: Cumulative Risk Factors in Early Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Wendy L.; Swindle, Taren M.; Kyzer, Angela L.; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne

2015-01-01

Cumulative risk theory suggests that a variety of social risk factors would have an additive effect on obesity risk. Multiple studies have suggested that obesity is related to basic resources such as transportation and financial resources. Additional research points to parental engagement and parental monitoring as additional sources of risk. This…

Does Operational Risk Disclosure Quality Increase Operating Cash Flows?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haitham Nobanee

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure and examine its impact on operating cash flow of banks listed on the UAE Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX and Dubai Financial Market (DFM during the period 2003-2016. The authors conducted content analysis of the annual reports to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure. In addition, they used dynamic panel data regressions to analyze the impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks. The results show a low degree of operational risk disclosure for all UAE banks, both Islamic and conventional. In addition, the results show no association between the levels of disclosure of operational risk and cash flow for all banks, conventional and Islamic. Operational risk disclosure of Islamic banks has not been examined by any prior researchers. In addition, this paper examines the potential impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks.

Generalized Partially Linear Regression with Misclassified Data and an Application to Labour Market Transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dlugosz, Stephan; Mammen, Enno; Wilke, Ralf

2017-01-01

Large data sets that originate from administrative or operational activity are increasingly used for statistical analysis as they often contain very precise information and a large number of observations. But there is evidence that some variables can be subject to severe misclassification...... or contain missing values. Given the size of the data, a flexible semiparametric misclassification model would be good choice but their use in practise is scarce. To close this gap a semiparametric model for the probability of observing labour market transitions is estimated using a sample of 20 m...... observations from Germany. It is shown that estimated marginal effects of a number of covariates are sizeably affected by misclassification and missing values in the analysis data. The proposed generalized partially linear regression extends existing models by allowing a misclassified discrete covariate...

An Exponential Tilt Mixture Model for Time-to-Event Data to Evaluate Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Randomized Clinical Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chi; Tan, Zhiqiang; Louis, Thomas A

2014-01-01

Evaluating the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome is the focus of many randomized clinical trials. It is often observed that the treatment effect is heterogeneous, where only a subgroup of the patients may respond to the treatment due to some unknown mechanism such as genetic polymorphism. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric exponential tilt mixture model to estimate the proportion of patients who respond to the treatment and to assess the treatment effect. Our model is a natural extension of parametric mixture models to a semiparametric setting with a time-to-event outcome. We propose a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation approach for inference and establish related asymptotic properties. Our method is illustrated by a randomized clinical trial on biodegradable polymer-delivered chemotherapy for malignant gliomas patients.

Bivariate value-at-risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Arbia

2007-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we extend the concept of Value-at-risk (VaR to bivariate return distributions in order to obtain measures of the market risk of an asset taking into account additional features linked to downside risk exposure. We first present a general definition of risk as the probability of an adverse event over a random distribution and we then introduce a measure of market risk (b-VaR that admits the traditional b of an asset in portfolio management as a special case when asset returns are normally distributed. Empirical evidences are provided by using Italian stock market data.

Do assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies require additional antenatal care?

Science.gov (United States)

Jauniaux, E; Ben-Ami, I; Maymon, R

2013-02-01

Iatrogenic twinning has become the main side-effect assisted reproduction treatment. We have evaluated the evidence for additional care that assisted-reproduction twins may require compared with spontaneous twins. Misacarriages are increased in women with tubal problems and after specific treatments. Assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies complicated by a vanishing twin after 8 weeks have an increased risk of preterm delivery and of low and very low birthweight compared with singleton assisted-reproduction pregnancies. Monozygotic twin pregnancies occur at a higher rate after assisted reproduction treatment and are associated with a higher risk of perinatal complications. The incidence of placenta praevia and vasa praevia is increased in assisted-reproduction twin pregnancies. Large cohort studies do not indicate a higher rate of fetal congenital malformations in assisted-reproduction twins. Overall, assisted-reproduction twins in healthy women assisted-reproduction twins is only increased in women with a pre-existing medical condition such as hypertensive disorders and diabetes and most of these risks can be avoided with single-embryo transfer. Following the birth of the first IVF baby, rumours started to spread in both the medical literature and the media about the long-term health effects for children born following assisted reproduction treatment. However, after more than 30 years, the most common complications associated with IVF treatment remain indirect and technical such as the failure of treatment and ovarian hyperstimulation. Iatrogenic twinning has become the main side-effect of assisted reproduction treatment and the increasing number of twin pregnancies, in particular in older women, has generated numerous debates on the need for additional healthcare provision. In this review, we have evaluated the evidence for additional care that assisted-conception twin pregnancies may require compared with spontaneous twin pregnancies. Twin pregnancies are

Identifying Coronary Artery Disease in Asymptomatic Middle-Aged Sportsmen: The Additional Value of Pulse Wave Velocity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thijs L Braber

Full Text Available Cardiovascular screening may benefit middle-aged sportsmen, as coronary artery disease (CAD is the main cause of exercise-related sudden cardiac death. Arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV, may help identify sportsmen with subclinical CAD. We examined the additional value of PWV measurements to traditional CAD risk factors for identifying CAD.From the Measuring Athlete's Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC cohort of asymptomatic, middle-aged sportsmen who underwent low-dose Cardiac CT (CCT after routine sports medical examination (SME, 193 consecutive sportsmen (aged 55 ± 6.6 years were included with additional PWV measurements before CCT. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PWV values (>8.3 and >7.5 m/s assessed by Arteriograph were used to identify CAD (coronary artery calcium scoring ≥ 100 Agatston Units or coronary CT angiography luminal stenosis ≥ 50% and to assess the additional diagnostic value of PWV to established cardiovascular risk factors.Forty-seven sportsmen (24% had CAD on CCT. They were older (58.9 vs. 53.8 years, p8.3m/s respectively >7.5 m/s sensitivity to detect CAD on CT was 43% and 74%, specificity 69% and 45%, positive predictive value 31% and 30%, and negative predictive value 79% and 84%. Adding PWV to traditional risk factor models did not change the area under the curve (from 0.78 (95% CI = 0.709-0.848 to AUC 0.78 (95% CI 0.710-0.848, p = 0.99 for prediction of CAD on CCT.Limited additional value was found for PWV on top of established risk factors to identify CAD. PWV might still have a role to identify CAD in middle-aged sportsmen if risk factors such as cholesterol are unknown.

Evaluation of Additively Manufactured Metals for Use in Oxygen Systems Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tylka, Jonathan; Cooper, Ken; Peralta, Stephen; Wilcutt, Terrence; Hughitt, Brian; Generazio, Edward

2016-01-01

Space Launch System, Commercial Resupply, and Commercial Crew programs have published intent to use additively manufactured (AM) components in propulsion systems and are likely to include various life support systems in the future. Parts produced by these types of additive manufacturing techniques have not been fully evaluated for use in oxygen systems and the inherent risks have not been fully identified. Some areas of primary concern in the SLS process with respect to oxygen compatibility may be the porosity of the printed parts, fundamental differences in microstructure of an AM part as compared to traditional materials, or increased risk of shed metal particulate into an oxygen system. If an ignition were to occur the printed material could be more flammable than components manufactured from a traditional billet of raw material and/or present a significant hazards if not identified and rigorously studied in advance of implementation into an oxygen system.

A joint model of cancer incidence, metastasis, and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Qui; Kidwell, Kelley M; Tsodikov, Alex

2017-09-04

Many diseases, especially cancer, are not static, but rather can be summarized by a series of events or stages (e.g. diagnosis, remission, recurrence, metastasis, death). Most available methods to analyze multi-stage data ignore intermediate events and focus on the terminal event or consider (time to) multiple events as independent. Competing-risk or semi-competing-risk models are often deficient in describing the complex relationship between disease progression events which are driven by a shared progression stochastic process. A multi-stage model can only examine two stages at a time and thus fails to capture the effect of one stage on the time spent between other stages. Moreover, most models do not account for latent stages. We propose a semi-parametric joint model of diagnosis, latent metastasis, and cancer death and use nonparametric maximum likelihood to estimate covariate effects on the risks of intermediate events and death and the dependence between them. We illustrate the model with Monte Carlo simulations and analysis of real data on prostate cancer from the SEER database.

Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization (MAWS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

In the Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization(MAWS) concept, actual waste streams are utilized as additive resources for vitrification, which may contain the basic components (glass formers and fluxes) for making a suitable glass or glassy slag. If too much glass former is present, then the melt viscosity or temperature will be too high for processing; while if there is too much flux, then the durability may suffer. Therefore, there are optimum combinations of these two important classes of constituents depending on the criteria required. The challenge is to combine these resources in such a way that minimizes the use of non-waste additives yet yields a processable and durable final waste form for disposal. The benefit to this approach is that the volume of the final waste form is minimized (waste loading maximized) since little or no additives are used and vitrification itself results in volume reduction through evaporation of water, combustion of organics, and compaction of the solids into a non-porous glass. This implies a significant reduction in disposal costs due to volume reduction alone, and minimizes future risks/costs due to the long term durability and leach resistance of glass. This is accomplished by using integrated systems that are both cost-effective and produce an environmentally sound waste form for disposal. individual component technologies may include: vitrification; thermal destruction; soil washing; gas scrubbing/filtration; and, ion-exchange wastewater treatment. The particular combination of technologies will depend on the waste streams to be treated. At the heart of MAWS is vitrification technology, which incorporates all primary and secondary waste streams into a final, long-term, stabilized glass wasteform. The integrated technology approach, and view of waste streams as resources, is innovative yet practical to cost effectively treat a broad range of DOE mixed and low-level wastes

Using in vitro/in silico data for consumer safety assessment of feed flavoring additives e A feasibility study using piperine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thiel, A.; Etheve, S.; Fabian, E.; Leeman, W.R.; Plautz, J.R.

2015-01-01

Consumer health risk assessment for feed additives is based on the estimated human exposure to the additive that may occur in livestock edible tissues compared to its hazard.We present an approach using alternative methods for consumer health risk assessment. The aim was to use the fewest possible

Are Soil Pollution Risks Established by Governments the Same as Actual Risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijnders, L.

2010-01-01

Though soil pollution policies in North America and the European Union increasingly use risk-based standards, the construction and application of such standards are often deficient in taking account of actual risks. Standards refer to total concentrations of substances and not to the biologically available amount. A number of countries neglect -background exposure, and assumptions regarding routes of exposure to soil pollution can be very different and at variance with empirical data. Recent dose-effect studies are neglected in a number of cases. The application of standards does not take account of the overall risk of soil pollution but rather leads to the decision whether or not there is violation of at least one standard for a specified (group of) substance(s). Standards for soil pollutants are often based on the assumption that only effect addition can occur, whereas dose addition, antagonism and synergism, and indirect effects may in fact apply. Several remedies for current shortcomings are proposed

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG COMPONENTS OF ENGAGEMENT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

EVREN DILEK SENGUR

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Accounting scandals exploded at the beginning of 2000s and the collapse of Arthur Andersen highlighted the importance of implementing engagement risk management strategies in audit firms. Engagement risk refers the overall risk associated with an audit engagement and it consists of three components: client's business risk, auditor's business risk, and audit risk. The main purpose of this study is to describe each components of engagement risk and explain relations among them. Additionally, the paper points out the importance of engagement risk management throughout the audit and demonstrates engagement risk management strategies at client acceptance/ continuance, planning and completion of audit.

Identifying genetic marker sets associated with phenotypes via an efficient adaptive score test

KAUST Repository

Cai, T.; Lin, X.; Carroll, R. J.

2012-01-01

the overall effect of a marker-set have been actively studied in recent years. For example, score tests derived under an Empirical Bayes (EB) framework (Liu and others, 2007. Semiparametric regression of multidimensional genetic pathway data: least

On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Božović Miloš

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Torn, van der P.; Vrijling, H.K.; Wal, van der A.J.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

2014-01-01

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

Transfer of risk coefficients across populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, L.R.

1992-01-01

The variation of lifetime risk projections for a Canadian population caused by the uncertainty in the choice of method for transferring excess relative risk coefficients between populations is assessed. Site-specific projections, varied by factors up to 3.5 when excess risk coefficients of the BEIR V relative risk models were transferred to the Canadian population using an additive and multiplicative method. When the risk from all cancers are combined, differences between transfer methods were no longer significant. The Canadian projections were consistent with the ICRP-60 nominal fatal cancer risk estimates. (author)

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratt, L.B.

1991-01-01

AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Additional androgen deprivation makes the difference. Biochemical recurrence-free survival in prostate cancer patients after HDR brachytherapy and external beam radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiffmann, Jonas; Tennstedt, Pierre; Beyer, Burkhard; Boehm, Katharina; Tilki, Derya; Salomon, Georg; Graefen, Markus; Lesmana, Hans; Platz, Volker; Petersen, Cordula; Kruell, Andreas; Schwarz, Rudolf

2015-01-01

The role of additional androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with combined HDR brachytherapy (HDR-BT) and external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is still unknown. Consecutive PCa patients classified as D'Amico intermediate and high-risk who underwent HDR-BT and EBRT treatment ± ADT at our institution between January 1999 and February 2009 were assessed. Multivariable Cox regression models predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) were performed. BCR-free survival was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analyses. Overall, 392 patients were assessable. Of these, 221 (56.4 %) underwent trimodality (HDR-BT and EBRT and ADT) and 171 (43.6 %) bimodality (HDR-BT and EBRT) treatment. Additional ADT administration reduced the risk of BCR (HR: 0.4, 95 % CI: 0.3-0.7, p < 0.001). D'Amico high-risk patients had superior BCR-free survival when additional ADT was administered (log-rank p < 0.001). No significant difference for BCR-free survival was recorded when additional ADT was administered to D'Amico intermediate-risk patients (log-rank p = 0.2). Additional ADT administration improves biochemical control in D'Amico high-risk patients when HDR-BT and EBRT are combined. Physicians should consider the oncological benefit of ADT administration for these patients during the decision-making process. (orig.) [de

Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-09-01

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data

KAUST Repository

Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Mü ller, Ursula U.; Keilegom, Ingrid Van; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2012-01-01

Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.

Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data

KAUST Repository

Wei, Jiawei

2012-12-04

Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.

Second Malignancies After Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Breast Cancer: Is There Increased Risk With Addition of Regional Radiation to Local Radiation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, Sarah Nicole [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Tyldesley, Scott, E-mail: styldesl@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Li, Dongdong [Cancer Control Research Department, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Olson, Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Centre for the North, Prince George, British Columbia (Canada); McBride, Mary [Cancer Control Research Department, British Columbia Cancer Agency-Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

2015-04-01

Purpose: This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an increased risk of second malignancies (SM), particularly lung cancer, in early stage breast cancer patients treated with the addition of nodal fields to breast and/or chest wall radiation therapy (RT). Materials and Methods: Subjects were stage I/II female breast cancer patients 20 to 79 years of age, diagnosed between 1989 and 2005 and treated with adjuvant RT at our institution. Patients were included if they survived and did not have SM within 3 years of diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to compare SM incidence to cancer incidence in the general sex- and age-matched populations. Secondary malignancy risks in patients treated with local RT (LRT) to the breast/chest wall were compared to those in patients treated with locoregional RT (LRRT) to the breast/chest wall and regional nodes, using multivariate regression analysis (MVA) to account for covariates. Results: The cohort included 12,836 patients with a median follow-up of 8.4 years. LRRT was used in 18% of patients. The SIR comparing patients treated with LRT to the general population was 1.29 (CI: 1.21-1.38). No statistically significant increased incidence of in-field malignancies (SIR, 1.04; CI: 0.87-1.23) and lung cancers (SIR, 1.06; CI: 0.88-1.26) was detected. The SIR comparing patients treated with LRRT to the general population was 1.39 (CI: 1.17-1.64). No statistically significant increased incidence of in-field malignancies (SIR, 1.26; CI: 0.77-1.94) and lung cancers (SIR, 1.27; CI: 0.76-1.98) was detected. On MVA comparing LRRT to LRT, the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.20 for in-field malignancies (CI: 0.68-2.16) and 1.26 for lung cancer (CI: 0.67-2.36). The excess attributable risk (EAR) to regional RT was 3.1 per 10,000 person years (CI: −8.7 to 9.9). Conclusions: No statistically significant increased risk of second malignancy was detected after LRRT relative to

Why do tougher caseworkers increase employment?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

2017-01-01

Previous research found that less accommodating caseworkers are more successful in placing unemployed workers into employment. This paper explores the causal mechanisms behind this result using semiparametric mediation analysis. Analysing rich linked jobseeker-caseworker data for Switzerland, we...

Mental health problems in adolescents with cochlear implants: Peer problems persist after controlling for additional handicaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria eHuber

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The aims of the present multi-center study were to investigate the extent of mental health problems in adolescents with a hearing loss and cochlear implants (CIs in comparison to normal hearing (NH peers and to investigate possible relations between the extent of mental health problems of young CI users and hearing variables, such as age at implantation, or functional gain of CI. The survey included 140 adolescents with CI (mean age = 14.7, SD = 1.5 years and 140 NH adolescents (mean age = 14.8, SD = 1.4 years, their parents and teachers. Participants were matched by age, gender and social background. Within the CI group, 35 adolescents were identified as risk cases due to possible and manifest additional handicaps, and 11 adolescents were non-classifiable. Mental health problems were assessed with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ in the versions Self, Parent, and Teacher. The CI group showed significantly more Peer Problems than the NH group. When the CI group was split into a risk-group (35 risk cases and 11 non-classifiable persons and a non-risk group (n = 94, increased peer problems were perceived in both CI subgroups by adolescents themselves. However, no further differences between the CI non-risk group and the NH group were observed in any rater. The CI-risk group showed significantly more hyperactivity compared to the NH group and more hyperactivity and conduct problems compared to the CI non-risk group. Cluster analyses confirmed that there were significantly more adolescents with high problems in the CI-risk group compared to the CI non-risk group and the NH group. Adolescents with CI, who were able to understand speech in noise had significantly less difficulties compared to constricted CI users. Parents, teachers, and clinicians should be aware that CI users with additionally special needs may have mental health problems. However, peer problems were also experienced by CI adolescents without additional handicaps

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

. Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

. Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures.

WHO risk communication seminar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)

A framework for reliability and risk centered maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvik, J.T.; Aven, T.

2011-01-01

Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) is a well-established analysis method for preventive maintenance planning. As its name indicates, reliability is the main point of reference for the planning, but consequences of failures are also assessed. However, uncertainties and risk are to a limited extent addressed by the RCM method, and in this paper we suggest an extension of the RCM to reliability and risk centered maintenance (RRCM) by also considering risk as the reference for the analysis in addition to reliability. A broad perspective on risk is adopted where uncertainties are the main component of risk in addition to possible events and associated consequences. A case from the offshore oil and gas industry is presented to illustrate and discuss the suggested approach.

Why do tougher caseworkers increase employment? The role of programme assignment as a causal mechanism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

Previous research found that less accommodating caseworkers are more successful in placing unemployed workers into employment. This paper tries to shed more light on the causal mechanisms behind this result using semiparametric mediation analysis. Analysing very informative linked jobseeker...

Multivariate GARCH models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...

A New Perspective on the Relationship Between Cloud Shade and Point Cloudiness

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brabec, Marek; Badescu, V.; Paulescu, M.; Dumitrescu, A.

172-173, 15 May (2016), s. 136-146 ISSN 0169-8095 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : point cloud iness * cloud shade * statistical analysis * semi-parametric modeling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016

Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N. Kunitomo (Naoto); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y. Nishiyama (Yoshihiko)

2010-01-01

textabstractMoment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters,

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Cost-effectiveness of additional catheter-directed thrombolysis for deep vein thrombosis

Science.gov (United States)

ENDEN, T.; RESCH, S.; WHITE, C.; WIK, H. S.; KLØW, N. E.; SANDSET, P. M.

2013-01-01

Summary Background Additional treatment with catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) has recently been shown to reduce post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS). Objectives To estimate the cost effectiveness of additional CDT compared with standard treatment alone. Methods Using a Markov decision model, we compared the two treatment strategies in patients with a high proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and a low risk of bleeding. The model captured the development of PTS, recurrent venous thromboembolism and treatment-related adverse events within a lifetime horizon and the perspective of a third-party payer. Uncertainty was assessed with one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyzes. Model inputs from the CaVenT study included PTS development, major bleeding from CDT and utilities for post DVT states including PTS. The remaining clinical inputs were obtained from the literature. Costs obtained from the CaVenT study, hospital accounts and the literature are expressed in US dollars ($); effects in quality adjusted life years (QALY). Results In base case analyzes, additional CDT accumulated 32.31 QALYs compared with 31.68 QALYs after standard treatment alone. Direct medical costs were $64 709 for additional CDT and $51 866 for standard treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $20 429/QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analysis showed model sensitivity to the clinical efficacy of both strategies, but the ICER remained < $55 000/QALY over the full range of all parameters. The probability that CDT is cost effective was 82% at a willingness to pay threshold of $50 000/QALY gained. Conclusions Additional CDT is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to the standard treatment for patients with a high proximal DVT and a low risk of bleeding. PMID:23452204

The role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1998-01-01

Are risks social constructions of different societal actors that can be checked at best against standards of consistency, cohesion and internal conventions of deduction, but cannot claim any validity outside of the actor's logical framework? Or are technical estimates of risk representations of real hazards that can and will affect people as predicted by the statistical values, regardless of the beliefs or convictions of those who conduct the assessments? Which of the two sides one takes determines the legitimate function of risk perception for management purposes. The paper argues that both extremes, the constructivist and the realist perspective, miss the point, as risks are always mental representations of threats that are capable of claiming real losses. Over the last two decades, risk analysts have dealt with both sides of risk in an additive fashion. In times in which risk management has been under serious pressure to demonstrate effectiveness and cost-efficiency, the parallel approach of pleasing the technical elite and the public alike has lost legitimacy. In order to integrate risk assessment and perception, the paper analyses the strengths and weaknesses of each approach to risk analysis and highlights the potential contributions that the technical sciences and the social sciences can offer to risk management. Technical assessments provide the best estimate for judging the average probability of an adverse effect linked to an object or activity. First, public perception should govern the selection of criteria on which acceptability or tolerability are to be judged. Second, public input is needed to determine the trade-offs between criteria. Third, public preferences are needed to design resilient strategies for coping with remaining uncertainties. A public participation model is introduced that promises an integration of analytic knowledge and deliberative process involving those who will be affected by the respective risk

MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

OpenAIRE

Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

2014-01-01

Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

APPLIED ISSUES ABOUT BANKING RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Geanina Clipici

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The following paper emphasizes the need to deepen the understanding of the notion of banking risk management by explaining the significant risks the bank encounters during financial exercises as well as their additional entries. The study of the paper will focus on UniCredit Bank during the years 2014 and  2015 on all types of risks, in which we will provide comprehensive data on how the UniCredit Bank management applies its risk policies.

A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

2007-01-01

.... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

Groundwater uranium and cancer incidence in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Sara E.; Burch, James B.; Bottai, Matteo; Puett, Robin; Porter, Dwayne; Bolick-Aldrich, Susan; Temples, Tom; Wilkerson, Rebecca C.; Vena, John E.; Hébert, James R.

2012-01-01

Objective This ecologic study tested the hypothesis that census tracts with elevated groundwater uranium and more frequent groundwater use have increased cancer incidence. Methods Data sources included: incident total, leukemia, prostate, breast, colorectal, lung, kidney, and bladder cancers (1996–2005, SC Central Cancer Registry); demographic and groundwater use (1990 US Census); and groundwater uranium concentrations (n = 4,600, from existing federal and state databases). Kriging was used to predict average uranium concentrations within tracts. The relationship between uranium and standardized cancer incidence ratios was modeled among tracts with substantial groundwater use via linear or semiparametric regression, with and without stratification by the proportion of African Americans in each area. Results A total of 134,685 cancer cases were evaluated. Tracts with ≥50% groundwater use and uranium concentrations in the upper quartile had increased risks for colorectal, breast, kidney, prostate, and total cancer compared to referent tracts. Some of these relationships were more likely to be observed among tracts populated primarily by African Americans. Conclusion SC regions with elevated groundwater uranium and more groundwater use may have an increased incidence of certain cancers, although additional research is needed since the design precluded adjustment for race or other predictive factors at the individual level. PMID:21080052

Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

2018-03-05

The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

Additive Manufacturing for Robust and Affordable Medical Devices

OpenAIRE

Wolozny Gomez Robelo, Daniel Andre

2016-01-01

Additive manufacturing in the form of 3D printing is a revolutionary technology that has developed within the last two decades. Its ability to print an object with accurate features down to the micro scale have made its use in medical devices and research feasible. A range of life-saving technologies can now go from the laboratory and into field with the application of 3D-printing. This technology can be applied to medical diagnosis of patients in at-risk populations. Living biosensors a...

Generalised Partially Linear Regression with Misclassified Data and an Application to Labour Market Transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dlugosz, Stephan; Mammen, Enno; Wilke, Ralf

We consider the semiparametric generalised linear regression model which has mainstream empirical models such as the (partially) linear mean regression, logistic and multinomial regression as special cases. As an extension to related literature we allow a misclassified covariate to be interacted...

The finite sample performance of estimators for mediation analysis under sequential conditional independence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

Using a comprehensive simulation study based on empirical data, this paper investigates the finite sample properties of different classes of parametric and semi-parametric estimators of (natural) direct and indirect causal effects used in mediation analysis under sequential conditional independence...

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Is this a reflux patient or is it a patient with functional dyspepsia with additional reflux symptoms?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Funch-Jensen, Peter

1995-01-01

Patients with pyrosis or regurgitation as the dominating symptoms have gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). However, patients with more atypical symptoms may also suffer from it. The disease is usually chronic and patients who have additional oesophagitis are at risk of developing complicati......Patients with pyrosis or regurgitation as the dominating symptoms have gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). However, patients with more atypical symptoms may also suffer from it. The disease is usually chronic and patients who have additional oesophagitis are at risk of developing...

Associations between Ultrasound Measures of Abdominal Fat Distribution and Indices of Glucose Metabolism in a Population at High Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: The ADDITION-PRO Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Philipsen, Annelotte; Jørgensen, Marit E; Vistisen, Dorte

2015-01-01

metabolism in a population at high risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of 1342 participants of the ADDITION-PRO study. We measured visceral adipose tissue and subcutaneous adipose tissue with ultrasonography, anthropometrics and body fat percentage by bioelectrical impedance. Indices...... standard deviation difference in BMI, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, waist/height ratio and body fat percentage corresponded approximately to 0.2mmol/l higher fasting glucose, 0.7mmol/l higher 2-hr glucose, 0.06-0.1% higher HbA1c, 30 % lower HOMA index of insulin sensitivity, 20% lower Gutt...

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Quality and Safety in Health Care, Part XXXII: Additional Outcome Predictors for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Harolds, Jay A

2018-02-01

Mortality 12 months after a transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is partly due to a number of reasons in addition to the usual preprocedural medical patient risk factors. In patients who need a permanent pacemaker placed after the procedure, the mortality risk goes up. The death rate following a TAVR varies considerably at different institutions, and the past death rate of TAVR patients at an institution is predictive of the mortality rate of new patients having this procedure. In addition, the quality of life of the individual before the procedure is predictive of the 12-month mortality outcome after the TAVR is done.

[Etiological, clinical and neuroradiological investigation of deaf children with additional neuropsychiatric disabilities].

Science.gov (United States)

Chilosi, A M; Scusa, M F; Comparini, A; Genovese, E; Forli, F; Berrettini, S; Cipriani, P

2012-04-01

Sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) is complicated by additional disabilities in about 30% of cases, but the epidemiology of associated disorders, in terms of type, frequency and aetiology is still not clearly defined. Additional disabilities in a deaf child have important consequences in assessing and choosing a therapeutic treatment, in particular when considering cochlear implantation (CI) or hearing aids (HA). The aim of this paper was to evaluate frequency, type and severity of additional neurodevelopmental disabilities in children with profound bilateral sensorineural hearing loss and to investigate the relationship between disability and the etiology of deafness. Eighty children with profound bilateral sensorineural hearing loss (mean age 5.4 years) were investigated by means of a diagnostic protocol including clinical, neurodevelopmental, and audiological procedures together with genetic and neurometabolic tests and neuroradiological investigation by brain MRI. Fifty-five percent of the sample exhibited one or more disabilities in addition to deafness, with cognitive, behavioural-emotional and motor disorders being the most frequent. The risk of additional disabilities varied according to aetiology, with a higher incidence in hereditary syndromic deafness, in cases due to pre-perinatal pathology (in comparison to unknown and hereditary non syndromic forms) and in the presence of major brain abnormalities at MRI. Our results suggest that the aetiology of deafness may be a significant risk indicator for the presence of neuropsychiatric disorders. A multidimensional evaluation, including aetiological, neurodevelopmental and MRI investigation is needed for formulating prognosis and for planning therapeutic intervention, especially in those children candidated to cochlear implant.

Targeted Learning in Healthcare Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, Susan

2015-12-01

The increasing availability of Big Data in healthcare encourages investigators to seek answers to big questions. However, nonparametric approaches to analyzing these data can suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and traditional parametric modeling does not necessarily scale. Targeted learning (TL) combines semiparametric methodology with advanced machine learning techniques to provide a sound foundation for extracting information from data. Predictive models, variable importance measures, and treatment benefits and risks can all be addressed within this framework. TL has been applied in a broad range of healthcare settings, including genomics, precision medicine, health policy, and drug safety. This article provides an introduction to the two main components of TL, targeted minimum loss-based estimation and super learning, and gives examples of applications in predictive modeling, variable importance ranking, and comparative effectiveness research.

Rituals in risk evaluation for land-use planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, H.K.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

2013-01-01

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

Risk for suicide and risk for violence: a case for separating the current violence diagnoses.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, J E; Early, J A; Green, P T; Lauck, D L; Oblaczynski, C; Smochek, M R; Wright, G

1997-01-01

To identify accurate descriptive terms for risk for violence and risk for suicide and to provide operational definitions for these terms The Delphi technique, with two rounds, was used to differentiate the operational definitions that represent risk for suicide from those that represent risk for violence. The expert panel consisted of 23 healthcare professionals with a minimum of a master's degree. In addition to the expert panel, a control group (N = 11) participated to assess content validity. Thirty-six definitions were agreed upon for suicide, 39 for violence. These definitions represent the basic distinctions between the two behavioral manifestations.

Statistical Models for Disaggregation and Reaggregation of Natural Gas Consumption Data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brabec, Marek; Konár, Ondřej; Malý, Marek; Kasanický, Ivan; Pelikán, Emil

2015-01-01

Roč. 42, č. 5 (2015), s. 921-937 ISSN 0266-4763 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : natural gas consumption * semiparametric model * standardized load profiles * aggregation * disaggregation * 62P30 Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics , Operational Research Impact factor: 0.419, year: 2015

College education and wages in the UK : Estimating conditional average structural functions in nonadditive models with binary endogenous variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein, T.J.

2013-01-01

Recent studies debate how the unobserved dependence between the monetary return to college education and selection into college can be characterised. This paper examines this question using British data. We develop a semiparametric local instrumental variables estimator for identified features of a

Dynamics in international market segmentation of new product growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lemmens, A.; Croux, C.; Stremersch, S.

2012-01-01

Prior international segmentation studies have been static in that they have identified segments that remain stable over time. This paper shows that country segments in new product growth are intrinsically dynamic. We propose a semiparametric hidden Markov model to dynamically segment countries based

College Education and Wages in the U.K. : Estimating Conditional Average Structural Functions in Nonadditive Models with Binary Endogenous Variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein, T.J.

2009-01-01

Recent studies debate how the unobserved dependence between the monetary return to college education and selection into college can be characterized. This paper examines this question using British data. We develop a semiparametric local instrumental variables estimator for identified features of a

Empirical processes: theory and applications

OpenAIRE

Venturini Sergio

2005-01-01

Proceedings of the 2003 Summer School in Statistics and Probability in Torgnon (Aosta, Italy) held by Prof. Jon A. Wellner and Prof. M. Banerjee. The topic presented was the theory of empirical processes with applications to statistics (m-estimation, bootstrap, semiparametric theory).

Is there a limit to agglomeration? Evidence from productivity of Dutch firms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rizov, M.; Oskam, A.J.; Walsh, P.

2012-01-01

We compute aggregate productivity of three categories of regions, classified by the level of urbanization and density of economic activity in the Netherlands, from firm-specific total factor productivity (TFP) measures. TFP measures are estimated by a semi-parametric algorithm, within 2-digit

Indoor Tanning: The Risks of Ultraviolet Rays

Science.gov (United States)

... rays damage the skin and can lead to skin cancer. Tanning salons use lamps that emit both UV-A ... Risks In addition to the serious risk of skin cancer, tanning can cause: Premature aging . Tanning causes the skin ...

Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2010-09-14

We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal series-based, omnibus goodness-of-fit test in this context, where no likelihood function is available or calculated-i.e. all the tests are proposed in the semiparametric model framework. We demonstrate that our tests have optimality properties and computational advantages that are similar to those of the classical score tests in the parametric model framework. The test procedures are applicable to several semiparametric extensions of measurement error models, including when the measurement error distribution is estimated non-parametrically as well as for generalized partially linear models. The performance of the local score-type and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests is demonstrated through simulation studies and analysis of a nutrition data set.

The work of Raymond J. Carroll the impact and influence of a statistician

CERN Document Server

Lin, Xihong; Morris, Jeffrey; Stefanski, Leonard

2014-01-01

This volume contains Raymond J. Carroll's research and commentary on its impact by leading statisticians. Each of the seven main parts focuses on a key research area: Measurement Error, Transformation and Weighting, Epidemiology, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regression for Independent Data, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regression for Dependent Data, Robustness, and other work. The seven subject areas reviewed in this book were chosen by Ray himself, as were the articles representing each area. The commentaries not only review Ray’s work, but are also filled with history and anecdotes. Raymond J. Carroll’s impact on statistics and numerous other fields of science is far-reaching. His vast catalog of work spans from fundamental contributions to statistical theory to innovative methodological development and new insights in disciplinary science. From the outset of his career, rather than taking the “safe” route of pursuing incremental advances, Ray has focused on tackling the most important chall...

Understanding the determinants of electricity prices and the impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoenes, Stefan

2011-01-01

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a vector error correction model and a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient model. The results indicate that the electricity price adapts to fuel price changes in a long-term cointegration relationship. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. It is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berginc Nataša

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A cross-sectional, age-stratified study was conducted to determine varicella-zoster seroprevalence and force of infection in Slovenia. Methods 3689 serum samples were tested for VZV IgG antibodies with an enzyme immunoassay. Semiparametric and parametric modelling were used to estimate the force of infection. Results Overall, 85.6% of serum samples were seropositive. Age-specific prevalence rose rapidly in preschool children and over 90% of 8 years old tested positive for VZV. However, 2.8% of serum samples among women of childbearing age were seronegative. Semiparametric modelling yielded force of infection estimates of 0.182 (95% CI 0.158-0.206, 0.367 (95% CI 0.285-0.448 and 0.008 (95% CI 0.0-0.032 for age groups 0.5- Conclusions Regardless of the age grouping used, the highest transmission occurred in children in their first years of school.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Hiring a Gay Man, Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Baert, Stijn

2018-01-01

We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.

Risk of Malnutrition and Pressure Ulcer in a mixed hospital population. Nutritional risk screening predicting pressure ulcer.

OpenAIRE

Alhaug, Johanne

2016-01-01

Abstract Background and aim Malnutrition and pressure ulcer represent significant health problems for hospital inpatients, in addition to having a considerable impact on local and national health care cost. Sufficient nutritional status is crucial for proper wound healing, and malnutrition is a prominent risk factor for pressure ulcer development. Risk of malnutrition can be identified using standardized screening tools, such as the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002. The objective of this...

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

Low-grade inflammation is a risk factor for clinical stroke events in addition to silent cerebral infarcts in Japanese older hypertensives: the Jichi Medical School ABPM Study, wave 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikawa, Joji; Tamura, Yurie; Hoshide, Satoshi; Eguchi, Kazuo; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2007-03-01

risk factor for clinical stroke events in addition to silent cerebral infarcts in Japanese older hypertensives, indicating that the risk for clinical stroke events increases with preexisting hypertensive target organ damage in the brain and additionally with ongoing low-grade inflammation.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-01-01

Abstract This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan. We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk. A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98–2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy. PMID:27015220

A study on the risk perception of light pollution and the process of social amplification of risk in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyung Hee; Choi, Jae Wook; Lee, Eunil; Cho, Yong Min; Ahn, Hyung Rae

2015-05-01

In this study, the risk perception level of each light pollution type was analyzed, and the effects of the variables (e.g., psychometric paradigm factor, trust in the government, etc.) on the process of the increase in the risk perception were analyzed. For the sample population (1096 persons) in Korea, the risk perception levels of each light pollution type and other environmental and health risk factors were compared, and the relative magnitude was examined. In addition, to test which variables affect the group with high-risk perception of each light pollution type, a logistic regression analysis was performed. For the group with highest risk perception of light pollution, the odds ratios (OR) of all psychometric paradigms (excluding controllability) increased compared to those of the group with low-risk perception. Additionally, the level showing the acquisition of information from the media and the recollection level of media criticism on each light pollution type showed a statistically significant increase. Especially, the risk perception of light trespass increased as trust in the government decreased. The significance of this study includes the finding that the public's risk perception of light pollution was significantly affected by the psychometric paradigm factors. Moreover, this study analyzed the differences of the variables that affect the increase in the risk perception of each light pollution type and provided a theoretical framework that can practically reflect the strategy for the risk communication of light pollution.

The role of cocoa as a cigarette additive: opportunities for product regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sokol, Natasha A; Kennedy, Ryan David; Connolly, Gregory N

2014-07-01

The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act prohibited the use of characterizing flavors in cigarettes; however, some of these flavors are still used in cigarettes at varying levels. We reviewed tobacco industry internal documents to investigate the role of one of these flavors, cocoa, with the objective of understanding its relationship to sensory and risk perception, promotion of dependence, and enhancement of attractiveness and acceptability. We used the Legacy Tobacco Documents Library to identify documents relevant to our research questions. Initial search terms were generated following an examination of published literature on cocoa, other cigarette additives, and sensory and risk perception. Further research questions and search terms were generated based on review of documents generated from the initial search terms. Cocoa is widely applied to cigarettes and has been used by the tobacco industry as an additive since the early 20th century. Cocoa can alter the sensory properties of cigarette smoke, including by providing a more appealing taste and decreasing its harshness. The tobacco industry has experimented with manipulating cocoa levels as a means of achieving sensory properties that appeal to women and youth. Although cocoa is identified as a flavor on tobacco industry Web sites, it may serve other sensory purposes in cigarettes as well. Eliminating cocoa as an additive from tobacco products may affect tobacco product abuse liability by altering smokers' perceptions of product risk, and decreasing product appeal, especially among vulnerable populations. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brock, T.C.M.

2016-01-01

EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

Use and groundwater risk potential of additives in heat transfer fluids for borehole heat exchangers; Verwendung und Grundwassergefaehrdungspotenzial von Additiven in Waermetraegerfluessigkeiten fuer Erdwaermesonden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ilieva, Dafina

2014-02-25

Ground based heat exchanger systems need to be evaluated in terms of potential effects on groundwater quality due to the risk of leakage of borehole heat exchanger fluids. The aim of this work was to identify the compounds which are present in additive mixtures and to investigate experimentally their biodegradability and effects on the biodegradation of the major organic component in borehole heat exchanger fluids. A data survey was carried out in cooperation with the State Ministry of the Environment Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany to collect detailed information about the identity and application amounts of additives in borehole heat exchanger fluids. The survey revealed that numerous additives of various chemical classes and properties are used as corrosion inhibitors, alkalis, dyes, organic solvents, flavors, defoamers and surfactants. Furthermore, it was shown that glycols are among the most often applied antifreeze agents, the main component of the heat exchanger fluids. Based on the prioritization criteria (i) abundance in the borehole heat exchanger fluids, (ii) persistence, and (iii) mobility in the subsurface, the additives benzotriazole, tolyltriazole, 2-ethylhexanoate, benzoate and decane dicarboxylate were selected for further biodegradation experiments. The biodegradation experiments were carried out in batch systems with 60- or 70-m-deep sediments (sandstone or marl) as inoculum. The samples were taken during the installation of borehole heat exchanger systems at two different sites. The microcosms were conducted under oxic, denitrifying, iron- and sulfate-reducing as well as fermentative conditions at the presumed aquifer temperature of 12 C. The major component ethylene glycol was degraded under all conditions studied. The fastest biodegradation occurred under oxic and nitrate-reducing conditions (< 15 days). In all anoxic, nitrate free experiments with marl-sediment fermentation was the predominant process involved in the biodegradation of ethylene

Aspects of Additional Psychiatric Disorders in Severe Depression/Melancholia: A Comparison between Suicides and Controls and General Pattern

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrika Heu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: Additional and comorbid diagnoses are common among suicide victims with major depressive disorder (MDD and have been shown to increase the suicide risk. The aim of the present study was first, to investigate whether patients with severe depression/melancholia who had died by suicide showed more additional psychiatric disorders than a matched control group. Second, general rates of comorbid and additional diagnoses in the total group of patients were estimated and compared with literature on MDD. Method: A blind record evaluation was performed on 100 suicide victims with severe depression/melancholia (MDD with melancholic and/or psychotic features: MDD-M/P and matched controls admitted to the Department of Psychiatry, Lund, Sweden between 1956 and 1969 and monitored to 2010. Diagnoses in addition to severe depression were noted. Results: Less than half of both the suicides and controls had just one psychiatric disorder (47% in the suicide and 46% in the control group. The average number of diagnoses was 1.80 and 1.82, respectively. Additional diagnoses were not related to an increased suicide risk. Anxiety was the most common diagnosis. Occurrence of suspected schizophrenia/schizotypal or additional obsessive-compulsive symptoms were more common than expected, but alcohol use disorders did not appear very frequent. Conclusions: The known increased risk of suicide in MDD with comorbid/additional diagnoses does not seem to apply to persons with MDD-M/P (major depressive disorder-depression/Melancholia. Some diagnoses, such as schizophrenia/schizotypal disorders, were more frequent than expected, which is discussed, and a genetic overlap with MDD-M/P is proposed.

Auditing Social Media A Governance and Risk Guide

CERN Document Server

MOAC

2011-01-01

This book provides auditors and risk managers with a primer on social media.  It discusses what social media is, how it is being used as a tool within corporations, and how it should be monitored.  In addition, it discusses the various risks involved with the use of social media (e.g., reputation/brand risk; compliance risks; proprietary information risks; employee privacy risks; and vendor risks).    It also discusses compliance with Federal Trade Commission guidelines (e.g., education and disclosure requirements as well as audit and record keeping requirements). 

Estimating the period of a cyclic non-homogeneous Poisson process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Belitser, E.; Andrade Serra, De P.J.; Zanten, van J.H.

2013-01-01

Motivated by applications of Poisson processes for modelling periodic time-varying phenomena, we study a semi-parametric estimator of the period of cyclic intensity function of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. There are no parametric assumptions on the intensity function which is treated as an

Improved methods for the Valuation of the Environment in an Urban Setting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veie, Kathrine Lausted

on correctly identifying the amenity in question by acknowledging that amenities such as green space are heterogeneous. The second paper takes a critical look at standard spatial econometric techniques and suggests a semi-parametric alternative to handling omitted spatial processes on an unknown scale...

Misspecified poisson regression models for large-scale registry data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grøn, Randi; Gerds, Thomas A.; Andersen, Per K.

2016-01-01

working models that are then likely misspecified. To support and improve conclusions drawn from such models, we discuss methods for sensitivity analysis, for estimation of average exposure effects using aggregated data, and a semi-parametric bootstrap method to obtain robust standard errors. The methods...

Composite likelihood and two-stage estimation in family studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elisabeth Anne Wreford

2004-01-01

In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for linking a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data with a composite likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are d...

A No-Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

2013-01-01

The no-arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long-memory features of the range-based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi-parametric framework. In particular, the no...

The time to ruin in some additive risk models with random premium rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Martin

2012-01-01

to have a Laplace transform that is a rational function. The main results describe the joint Laplace transform of the time at ruin and the deficit at ruin. The method used consists in finding partial eigenfunctions for the generator of the joint process consisting of the Markov process and the accumulated...... of the present value of the Markov process. The intensity for a claim to occur is another nonnegative function of the value of the Markov process. The claim arrival times are the regeneration times for the Markov process. Two-sided claims are allowed, but the distribution of the positive claims is assumed......The risk processes considered in this paper are generated by an underlying Markov process with a regenerative structure and an independent sequence of independent and identically distributed claims. Between the arrivals of claims the process increases at a rate which is a nonnegative function...

Schizophrenia with the 22q11.2 deletion and additional genetic defects: case history.

Science.gov (United States)

Toyosima, M; Maekawa, M; Toyota, T; Iwayama, Y; Arai, M; Ichikawa, T; Miyashita, M; Arinami, T; Itokawa, M; Yoshikawa, T

2011-09-01

The 22q11.2 deletion is the most prominent known genetic risk factor for schizophrenia, but its penetrance is at most approximately 50% suggesting that additional risk factors are required for disease progression. We examined a woman with schizophrenia with this deletion for such risk factors. She had high plasma pentosidine levels ('carbonyl stress') and a frameshift mutation in the responsible gene, GLO1. She also had a constant exotropia, so we examined the PHOX2B gene associated with both schizophrenia and strabismus, and detected a 5-alanine deletion. We propose that the combination of these genetic defects may have exceeded the threshold for the manifestation of schizophrenia.

Risk indicators and potential risk factors for caries in 5-year-olds of different ethnic groups in Amsterdam.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verrips, G.H.; Frencken, J.E.; Kalsbeek, H.; Horst, G. ter; Filedt Kok-Weimar, T.L.

1992-01-01

The aim of this study was threefold: first, to assess the oral health of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, Dutch and "other" 5-yr-old children living in Amsterdam; second, to identify risk indicators for caries, in addition to ethnicity; and third, to identify potential risk factors related to

Nontargeted Screening Method for Illegal Additives Based on Ultrahigh-Performance Liquid Chromatography-High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Yanqing; Zhou, Zhihui; Kong, Hongwei; Lu, Xin; Zhao, Xinjie; Chen, Yihui; Chen, Jia; Wu, Zeming; Xu, Zhiliang; Zhao, Chunxia; Xu, Guowang

2016-09-06

Identification of illegal additives in complex matrixes is important in the food safety field. In this study a nontargeted screening strategy was developed to find illegal additives based on ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS). First, an analytical method for possible illegal additives in complex matrixes was established including fast sample pretreatment, accurate UHPLC separation, and HRMS detection. Second, efficient data processing and differential analysis workflow were suggested and applied to find potential risk compounds. Third, structure elucidation of risk compounds was performed by (1) searching online databases [Metlin and the Human Metabolome Database (HMDB)] and an in-house database which was established at the above-defined conditions of UHPLC-HRMS analysis and contains information on retention time, mass spectra (MS), and tandem mass spectra (MS/MS) of 475 illegal additives, (2) analyzing fragment ions, and (3) referring to fragmentation rules. Fish was taken as an example to show the usefulness of the nontargeted screening strategy, and six additives were found in suspected fish samples. Quantitative analysis was further carried out to determine the contents of these compounds. The satisfactory application of this strategy in fish samples means that it can also be used in the screening of illegal additives in other kinds of food samples.

Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongxi Zhou

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

Additional mechanisms conferring genetic susceptibility to Alzheimer's disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel eCalero

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Familial Alzheimer's disease (AD, mostly associated with early onset, is caused by mutations in three genes (APP, PSEN1 and PSEN2 involved in the production of the amyloid  peptide. In contrast, the molecular mechanisms that trigger the most common late onset sporadic AD remain largely unknown. With the implementation of an increasing number of case-control studies and the upcoming of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS there is a mounting list of genetic risk factors associated to common genetic variants that have been associated to sporadic AD. Besides APOE, that presents a strong association with the disease (OR~4, the rest of these genes have moderate or low degrees of association, with OR ranging from 0.88 to 1.23. Taking together, these genes may account only for a fraction of the attributable AD risk and therefore, rare variants and epistastic gene interactions should be taken into account in order to get the full picture of the genetic risks associated to AD. Here, we review recent whole-exome studies looking for rare variants, somatic brain mutations with a strong association to the disease, and several studies dealing with epistasis as additional mechanisms conferring genetic susceptibility to AD. Altogether, recent evidence underlines the importance of defining molecular and genetic pathways and networks rather than the contribution of specific genes.

Glycotoxin and Autoantibodies Are Additive Environmentally Determined Predictors of Type 1 Diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

Beyan, Huriya; Riese, Harriette; Hawa, Mohammed I.; Beretta, Guisi; Davidson, Howard W.; Hutton, John C.; Burger, Huibert; Schlosser, Michael; Snieder, Harold; Boehm, Bernhard O.; Leslie, R. David

2012-01-01

In type 1 diabetes, diabetes-associated autoantibodies, including islet cell antibodies (ICAs), reflect adaptive immunity, while increased serum Nε-carboxymethyl-lysine (CML), an advanced glycation end product, is associated with proinflammation. We assessed whether serum CML and autoantibodies predicted type 1 diabetes and to what extent they were determined by genetic or environmental factors. Of 7,287 unselected schoolchildren screened, 115 were ICA+ and were tested for baseline CML and diabetes autoantibodies and followed (for median 7 years), whereas a random selection (n = 2,102) had CML tested. CML and diabetes autoantibodies were determined in a classic twin study of twin pairs discordant for type 1 diabetes (32 monozygotic, 32 dizygotic pairs). CML was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, autoantibodies were determined by radioimmunoprecipitation, ICA was determined by indirect immunofluorescence, and HLA class II genotyping was determined by sequence-specific oligonucleotides. CML was increased in ICA+ and prediabetic schoolchildren and in diabetic and nondiabetic twins (all P < 0.001). Elevated levels of CML in ICA+ children were a persistent, independent predictor of diabetes progression, in addition to autoantibodies and HLA risk. In twins model fitting, familial environment explained 75% of CML variance, and nonshared environment explained all autoantibody variance. Serum CML, a glycotoxin, emerged as an environmentally determined diabetes risk factor, in addition to autoimmunity and HLA genetic risk, and a potential therapeutic target. PMID:22396204

[Chemical risk in farming].

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, Angelo

2013-01-01

The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

Cardiometabolic Risks in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Non-Traditional Risk Factors and the Impact of Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Wei-Ling; Boyle, Jacqueline; Vincent, Amanda; Teede, Helena; Moran, Lisa J

2017-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common and complex endocrinopathy with reproductive, metabolic, and psychological features and significantly increased cardiometabolic risks. PCOS is underpinned by inherent insulin resistance and hyperandrogenism. Obesity, more common in PCOS, plays an important role in the pathophysiology, exacerbating hyperinsulinaemia and hyperandrogenism, leading to recommended first-line lifestyle intervention. Significant traditional and non-traditional risk factors are implicated in PCOS in addition to obesity-exacerbated cardiometabolic risks and are explored in this review to promote the understanding of this common metabolic and reproductive condition. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Trade-offs between worker risk and public risk during remediation at DOE sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beam, B.N.; Morris, J.; Blaylock, B.; Travis, C.

1995-01-01

Within the next 30 years, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration Program will be responsible for remediating thousands of waste sites across the DOE complex. A major concern during remediation will be the protection of thousands of workers engaged in the remediation. In addition to well know safety hazards associated with conventional construction operations, remedial workers at DOE will encounter radiation and chemical exposures from radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste. Although historically represented as minimal due to a paucity of data related to worker exposures during remediation, potential worker health risk is an important factor that must be taken into account in the selection of remedial strategies, and the potential risk reduction offered by a remedial strategy must be weighed against the potential worker risk incurred during its implementation. Analysis has shown a trend that the worker risk incurred outweighs,the benefits of risk reduction to the public

[The relevance of clinical risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

2011-01-01

Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

Assessing the risk of expansion into a foreign country

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krijgsman, J.P.W.

1994-01-01

Experience has shown that country risks are not only reasonably predictable but that risks have remained stable despite the turbulence of the times. Country risk, the additional dangers to business in other than the domestic economy, include credit and market risk. Comparison of three regions and individual country ranking rates China highest followed by Venezuela with Russia last. (author)

Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Partyka

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

Does septal thickness influence outcome of myectomy for hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy?

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Anita; Schaff, Hartzell V; Nishimura, Rick A; Dearani, Joseph A; Geske, Jeffrey B; Lahr, Brian D; Ommen, Steve R

2018-03-01

Patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy and basal septal thickness 21 mm, n = 505), were performed with the Kruskal-Wallis and the Pearson χ2 tests and semiparametric analysis of covariance. Median group ages were 57, 57 and 54 years (P = 0.007); men comprised 50.4%, 56.7% and 62.0%, respectively (P = 0.003). Intrinsic MV disease was present in 5.9%, 5.2% and 4.6%, respectively (P = 0.80). All patients underwent transaortic septal myectomy. Additional mitral procedures were performed in 7.6%, 7.8% and 8.1%, respectively (P = 0.90). Reasons for MV surgery included intrinsic MV disease (66.7%), residual mitral regurgitation (30.8%) and residual gradient (2.6%). All groups had postoperative gradient relief (median reduction: 51, 54 and 50 mmHg; P = 0.11). Ventricular septal defect occurred in 4 patients (0.3%), and risk did not differ by group (P = 0.24). Adequate relief of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction can be achieved via transaortic septal myectomy without concomitant MV procedures when septal thickness is < 18 mm, and the risk of ventricular septal defect is minimal. Concomitant MV repair/replacement should be reserved for patients with intrinsic MV disease or inadequate relief of mitral regurgitation/left ventricular outflow tract obstruction following adequate extended septal myectomy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease: a Risk Factor or a Risk Marker?

Science.gov (United States)

Mandviwala, Taher; Khalid, Umair; Deswal, Anita

2016-05-01

In the USA, 69 % of adults are either overweight or obese and 35 % are obese. Obesity is associated with an increased incidence of various cardiovascular disorders. Obesity is a risk marker for cardiovascular disease, in that it is associated with a much higher prevalence of comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome, which then increase the risk for cardiovascular disease. However, in addition, obesity may also be an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, although obesity has been shown to be an independent risk factor for several cardiovascular diseases, it is often associated with improved survival once the diagnosis of the cardiovascular disease has been made, leading to the term "obesity paradox." Several pathways linking obesity and cardiovascular disease have been described. In this review, we attempt to summarize the complex relationship between obesity and cardiovascular disorders, in particular coronary atherosclerosis, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation.

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring Can Uncover Mistakes in Self-Treatment of Hypoglycemia in Patients with Type I Diabetes Mellitus

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brož, J.; Urbanová, J.; Janíčková Žďárská, D.; Doničová, V.; Brabec, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 63, Supplement 1 (2014), A221-A221 ISSN 0012-1797. [American Diabetes Association. Scientific Sessions /74./. 13.06.2014-17.06.2014, San Francisco] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : continuous monitoring * type I diabetes * semiparametric modeling Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition

The trend of BMI values of US adults by deciles, birth cohorts 1882–1986 stratified by gender and ethnicity

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Komlos, J.; Brabec, Marek

2011-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 3 (2011), s. 234-250 ISSN 1570-677X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : BMI * USA * NHANES * obesity * overweight * semiparametric modeling * GAMLSS model * percentile estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.722, year: 2011

Continuous Glucose Monitoring Can Uncover Mistakes in Self-Treatment of Hypoglycemia in Patients with Type I Diabetes Mellitus

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brož, J.; Urbanová, J.; Janíčková Žďárská, D.; Doničová, V.; Brabec, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 16, Supplement 1 (2014), A35-A35 ISSN 1520-9156. [American Diabetes Association. Scientific Sessions /74./. 13.06.2014-17.06.2014, San Francisco] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : continuous monitoring * type I diabetes * semiparametric modeling Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition

Mapping of nitrogen risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

2014-01-01

risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

Concepts of investment risks and strategies in electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Joode, J.; Boots, M.G.

2005-06-01

This report deals with the specific investment risks in electricity generation and discusses the problems associated with energy investments in general and focus on the additional or changing risks resulting from electricity market liberalisation. The focus is on (1) risks under the control of the electricity company, and on (2) market risks, such as the risk of price changes. Ultimately, some of the approaches and strategies that enable electricity producers to counter or mitigate these risks are discussed

On selection of optimal stochastic model for accelerated life testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volf, P.; Timková, J.

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the problem of proper lifetime model selection in the context of statistical reliability analysis. Namely, we consider regression models describing the dependence of failure intensities on a covariate, for instance, a stressor. Testing the model fit is standardly based on the so-called martingale residuals. Their analysis has already been studied by many authors. Nevertheless, the Bayes approach to the problem, in spite of its advantages, is just developing. We shall present the Bayes procedure of estimation in several semi-parametric regression models of failure intensity. Then, our main concern is the Bayes construction of residual processes and goodness-of-fit tests based on them. The method is illustrated with both artificial and real-data examples. - Highlights: • Statistical survival and reliability analysis and Bayes approach. • Bayes semi-parametric regression modeling in Cox's and AFT models. • Bayes version of martingale residuals and goodness-of-fit test

Stochastic convergence of renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: a fractional integration approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko; Al-Mulali, Usama

2018-04-13

In this article, we have examined the hypothesis of convergence of renewable energy consumption in 27 OECD countries. However, instead of relying on classical techniques, which are based on the dichotomy between stationarity I(0) and nonstationarity I(1), we consider a more flexible approach based on fractional integration. We employ both parametric and semiparametric techniques. Using parametric methods, evidence of convergence is found in the cases of Mexico, Switzerland and Sweden along with the USA, Portugal, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Spain, and employing semiparametric approaches, we found evidence of convergence in all these eight countries along with Australia, France, Japan, Greece, Italy and Poland. For the remaining 13 countries, even though the orders of integration of the series are smaller than one in all cases except Germany, the confidence intervals are so wide that we cannot reject the hypothesis of unit roots thus not finding support for the hypothesis of convergence.

The estimation of branching curves in the presence of subject-specific random effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmi, Angelo; Ratcliffe, Sarah J; Guo, Wensheng

2014-12-20

Branching curves are a technique for modeling curves that change trajectory at a change (branching) point. Currently, the estimation framework is limited to independent data, and smoothing splines are used for estimation. This article aims to extend the branching curve framework to the longitudinal data setting where the branching point varies by subject. If the branching point is modeled as a random effect, then the longitudinal branching curve framework is a semiparametric nonlinear mixed effects model. Given existing issues with using random effects within a smoothing spline, we express the model as a B-spline based semiparametric nonlinear mixed effects model. Simple, clever smoothness constraints are enforced on the B-splines at the change point. The method is applied to Women's Health data where we model the shape of the labor curve (cervical dilation measured longitudinally) before and after treatment with oxytocin (a labor stimulant). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gasoline taxes or efficiency standards? A heterogeneous household demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Weiwei

2015-01-01

Using detailed consumer expenditure survey data and a flexible semiparametric dynamic demand model, this paper estimates the price elasticity and fuel efficiency elasticity of gasoline demand at the household level. The goal is to assess the effectiveness of gasoline taxes and vehicle fuel efficiency standards on fuel consumption. The results reveal substantial interaction between vehicle fuel efficiency and the price elasticity of gasoline demand: the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency leads to lower price elasticity and weakens consumers’ sensitivity to gasoline price changes. The offsetting effect also differs across households due to demographic heterogeneity. These findings imply that when gasoline taxes are in place, tightening efficiency standards will partially offset the strength of taxes on reducing fuel consumption. - Highlights: • Model household gasoline demand using a semiparametric approach. • Estimate heterogeneous price elasticity and fuel efficiency elasticity. • Assess the effectiveness of gasoline taxes and efficiency standards. • Efficiency standards offset the impact of gasoline taxes on fuel consumption. • The offsetting effect differs by household demographics

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

1991-01-01

It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Flame Retardancy of Chemically Modified Lignin as Functional Additive to Epoxy Nanocomposites

Science.gov (United States)

John A. Howarter; Gamini P. Mendis; Alex N. Bruce; Jeffrey P. Youngblood; Mark A. Dietenberger; Laura Hasburgh

2015-01-01

Epoxy printed circuit boards are used in a variety of electronics applications as rigid, thermally stable substrates. Due to the propensity of components on the boards, such as batteries and interconnects, to fail and ignite the epoxy, flame retardant additives are required to minimize fire risk. Currently, industry uses brominated flame retardants, such as TBBPA, to...

Lithium use and the risk of fractures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilting, Ingeborg; de Vries, Frank; Thio, Brahm M. K. S.; Cooper, Cyrus; Heerdink, Eibert R.; Leutkens, Hubert G. M.; Nolen, Willem A.; Egberts, Antoine C. G.; van Staa, Tjeerd P.

A recent study reported a decreased risk of fractures among lithium users. We conducted a case-control study within the UK General Practice Research Database, comparing never, ever, current, recent and past lithium use in 231,778 fracture cases to matched controls. In addition, the risk of fractures

Risk to preimplantation mouse embryos of combinations of heavy metals and radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, W.-U.; Streffer, C.

1987-01-01

The influence of arsenic, cadmium, lead or mercury on radiation risk to preimplantation mouse embryos in vitro was studied under various conditions. Morphological development, cell proliferation, and formation of micronuclei were used for assessment of risk after combined exposure to these metals and X-rays. No conditions were found under which arsenic altered radiation risk; the effects were merely additive. Cadmium acted similarly, though a few results indicated that morphological development might be impaired more strongly after combined exposure than expected from the addition of the single effects. Lead enhanced radiation risk with regard to micronucleus formation, but had an additive effect only in the case of morphological development and cell proliferation. Of all four metals, mercury had the greatest potential for enhancement of radiation risk, when morphological development and cell proliferation were studied. The observed combination effects exceeded even those effects which were calculated by taking into account the shape of the dose-effect curves (isobologram analysis, envelope of additivity). Mercury neither induced micro-nuclei nor enhanced their formation in combination experiments. (author)

Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Parrinello, C M; Matsushita, K; Woodward, M; Wagenknecht, L E; Coresh, J; Selvin, E

2016-09-01

To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%). These biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

Variant Carvajal syndrome with additional dental anomalies.

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Sophy; Day, Peter; Judge, Mary; Toole, Edell O'; Fayle, Stephen

2012-09-01

This paper aims to review the case of a girl who presented with a number of dental anomalies, in addition to unusual skin, nail and hair conditions. Tragically an undiagnosed cardiomyopathy caused unexpected sudden death. The case is discussed with reference to a number of dermatological and oral conditions which were considered as possible diagnoses. AW had been under long term dental care for prepubertal periodontitis, premature root resorption of primary teeth, soft tissue and dental anomalies, and angular cheilitis. Separately she had also been seen by several dermatologists with respect to palmar plantar keratosis, striae keratoderma, wiry hair and abnormal finger nails. Tragically the patient suffered a sudden unexpected death and the subsequent post mortem identified an undiagnosed dilated cardiomyopathy. The most likely diagnosis is that this case is a variant of Carvajal Syndrome with additional dental anomalies. To date we have been unable to identify mutations in the desoplakin gene. We aim to emphasise the importance of recognising these dental and dermatological signs when they present together as a potential risk factor for cardiac abnormalities. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2012 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparing and combining biomarkers as principle surrogates for time-to-event clinical endpoints.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Gilbert, Peter B

2015-02-10

Principal surrogate endpoints are useful as targets for phase I and II trials. In many recent trials, multiple post-randomization biomarkers are measured. However, few statistical methods exist for comparison of or combination of biomarkers as principal surrogates, and none of these methods to our knowledge utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information. We propose a Weibull model extension of the semi-parametric estimated maximum likelihood method that allows for the inclusion of multiple biomarkers in the same risk model as multivariate candidate principal surrogates. We propose several methods for comparing candidate principal surrogates and evaluating multivariate principal surrogates. These include the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent true and false positive fraction, the time-dependent and the integrated standardized total gain, and the cumulative distribution function of the risk difference. We illustrate the operating characteristics of our proposed methods in simulations and outline how these statistics can be used to evaluate and compare candidate principal surrogates. We use these methods to investigate candidate surrogates in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risks associated with radiation: General information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baris, D.; Pomroy, C.; Chatterjee, R.M.

1995-07-01

Employers have a general responsibility to explain occupational risks to their workers. This document has been prepared to assist employers in this task. Employers should inform their workers about radiation risks associated with their work by: identifying the source(s) of radiation exposure; identifying the risk of health effects due to exposure to these sources, including the risk to the embryo and foetus of pregnant female workers; explaining the relationship between regulatory dose limits and the risk of health effects; and, explaining a worker's personal dose in terms of risk. This publication provides basic information on these subjects in a form that is clear and easy to understand. For further information, a list of suggested additional reading is included at the end of the text. (author). 15 refs., 5 tabs., 3 figs

Risks associated with radiation: General information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baris, D; Pomroy, C; Chatterjee, R M

1995-07-01

Employers have a general responsibility to explain occupational risks to their workers. This document has been prepared to assist employers in this task. Employers should inform their workers about radiation risks associated with their work by: identifying the source(s) of radiation exposure; identifying the risk of health effects due to exposure to these sources, including the risk to the embryo and foetus of pregnant female workers; explaining the relationship between regulatory dose limits and the risk of health effects; and, explaining a worker`s personal dose in terms of risk. This publication provides basic information on these subjects in a form that is clear and easy to understand. For further information, a list of suggested additional reading is included at the end of the text. (author). 15 refs., 5 tabs., 3 figs.

In vitro bioassays reveal that additives are significant contributors to the toxicity of commercial household pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Merwe, Jason P; Neale, Peta A; Melvin, Steven D; Leusch, Frederic D L

2018-06-01

Pesticides commonly used around households can contain additives of unknown concentrations and toxicity. Given the likelihood of these chemicals washing into urban waterways, it is important to understand the effects that these additives may have on aquatic organisms. The aim of this study was to compare the toxicity of commercially available household pesticides to that of the active ingredient(s) alone. The toxicity of five household pesticides (three herbicides and two insecticides) was investigated using a bacterial cytotoxicity bioassay and an algal photosynthesis bioassay. The commercial products were up to an order of magnitude more toxic than the active ingredient(s) alone. In addition, two commercial products with the same listed active ingredients in the same ratio had a 600× difference in potency. These results clearly demonstrate that additives in commercial formulations are significant contributors to the toxicity of household pesticides. The toxicity of pesticides in aquatic systems is therefore likely underestimated by conventional chemical monitoring and risk assessment when only the active ingredients are considered. Regulators and customers should require more clarity from pesticide manufacturers about the nature and concentrations of not only the active ingredients, but also additives used in commercial formulations. In addition, monitoring programmes and chemical risk assessments schemes should develop a structured approach to assessing the toxic effects of commercial formulations, including additives, rather than simply those of the listed active ingredients. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

2016-01-01

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1979-01-01

The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

Communicating risk to the public - Probabilistically impossible

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallina, C.O.

1992-01-01

As far as the general public is concerned, scientists can forget about risk perception and risk acceptance. These worthy scientific goals only confuse the one single important issue - how people perceive and accept technology. Risk is rarely accepted in the abstract by the general public. Because people would rather be assured than educated, risk can only be presented within the framework of what people will accept when they accept the technology, which (among other things) produces the aforementioned risk itself. It is in this technological environment that effective risk communication becomes extremely complex. To understand the risk, the public must understand the technology - a formidable task in itself, but one that becomes even more difficult when two additional factors are included: media attention and political influence

Perceived knowledge and perceived risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, R.G.

1988-01-01

Much discussion in the area of radioactive waste management has centered on the topic of siting waste facilities in the face of public opposition. Waste managers frequently believe that the public perceives risks associated with radioactive waste as much higher than objective risk. Previous research on this topic confirms that waste managers and the public view the risks differently. The scientific literature in this area has been focused on factors that shape risk perception such as how risk perception varies by group and associations among different types of perceived risk. Research in the area of natural hazards and emergency response has focused on how the public obtains information and how that information is interpreted. In addition, much attention has been given to public involvement and public information programs. Critical to each of these research areas is the role of perception of how informed an individual is on a given risk versus how the individual rates a given risk. This paper seeks to do three things: Look at perception of health risk of radioactive waste in the context of other things related to nuclear technology and radioactivity; Investigate the relationship between perceived knowledge and perceived risk; and Determine social and psychological consequences of perceived risk

A Bayesian MCMC method for point process models with intractable normalising constants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

2004-01-01

to simulate from the "unknown distribution", perfect simulation algorithms become useful. We illustrate the method in cases whre the likelihood is given by a Markov point process model. Particularly, we consider semi-parametric Bayesian inference in connection to both inhomogeneous Markov point process models...... and pairwise interaction point processes....

Differences in the Distribution of High School Achievement: The Role of Class-Size and Time-in-Term

Science.gov (United States)

Corak, Miles; Lauzon, Darren

2009-01-01

This paper adopts the technique of [DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux (1996). "Labour market institutions and the distribution of wages 1973-1992: A semiparametric approach." "Econometrica, 64"(5), 1001-1044.] to decompose differences in the distribution of PISA reading scores in Canada, and assesses the relative contribution of…

Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sumit Isharwal

2015-01-01

Conclusion: EORTC and CUETO risk tables are the two best-established models to predict recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC though they tend to overestimate risk and have poor discrimination for prognostic outcomes in external validation. Future research should focus on enhancing the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools by incorporating additional prognostic factors such as depth of lamina propria invasion and molecular biomarkers after rigorous validation in multi-institutional cohorts.

Speak up! Enhancing risk performance with enterprise risk management, leadership style and employee voice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sax, Johanna; Torp, Simon

2015-01-01

Purpose: – The purpose of this paper is to test the effect of psychological safety and participative leadership style on risk performance as well as its interaction with enterprise risk management (ERM) processes to evaluate if a decentralisation in the form of a safe environment and participative......: – The paper finds that not only do both ERM and participative leadership style enhance risk performance but a positive interaction effect is also found. In addition, the findings suggest that a safe environment precede participative leadership style indicating this as a prerequisite for management...... to introduce participative leadership style. These findings underpin that an effective risk management system should include both a holistic, formalised ERM system and organisational initiatives that enhance a strategic responsiveness through employee involvement. Originality/value: – The current study...

Neural Networks as Semiparametric Option Pricing Tool

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Baruníková, M.

2011-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 66-83 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA402/09/0732 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : option valuation * neural network * S&P 500 index options Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/barunik-0367688.pdf

Semiparametric score level fusion: Gaussian copula approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Susyanyo, N.; Klaassen, C.A.J.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

2015-01-01

Score level fusion is an appealing method for combining multi-algorithms, multi- representations, and multi-modality biometrics due to its simplicity. Often, scores are assumed to be independent, but even for dependent scores, accord- ing to the Neyman-Pearson lemma, the likelihood ratio is the

A Semiparametric Model for Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

treeline ) in the presence of natural background clutter (e.g., trees, dirt roads, grasses). Each target consists of about 7 × 4 pixels, and each pixel...vehicles near the treeline in Cube 1 (Figure 1) constitutes the target set, but, since anomaly detectors are not designed to detect a particular target

Semiparametric Copula Models for Biometric Score Level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Caselli, M.

2016-01-01

In biometric recognition systems, biometric samples (images of faces, finger- prints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and classifiers (matchers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If two samples of the same person are compared, a genuine score is

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Additive genetic variation in schizophrenia risk is shared by populations of African and European descent

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Candia, T.r.; Lee, S.H.; Yang, J.; Browning, B.L.; Gejman, P. V.; Levinson, D. F.; Mowry, B. J.; Hewitt, J.K.; Goddard, M.E.; O'Donovan, M.C.; Purcell, S.M.; Posthuma, D.; Visscher, P. M.; Wray, N.R.; Keller, M. C.

2013-01-01

To investigate the extent to which the proportion of schizophrenia's additive genetic variation tagged by SNPs is shared by populations of European and African descent, we analyzed the largest combined African descent (AD [n = 2,142]) and European descent (ED [n = 4,990]) schizophrenia case-control

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

MeProRisk - a Joint Venture for Minimizing Risk in Geothermal Reservoir Development

Science.gov (United States)

Clauser, C.; Marquart, G.

2009-12-01

Exploration and development of geothermal reservoirs for the generation of electric energy involves high engineering and economic risks due to the need for 3-D geophysical surface surveys and deep boreholes. The MeProRisk project provides a strategy guideline for reducing these risks by combining cross-disciplinary information from different specialists: Scientists from three German universities and two private companies contribute with new methods in seismic modeling and interpretation, numerical reservoir simulation, estimation of petrophysical parameters, and 3-D visualization. The approach chosen in MeProRisk consists in considering prospecting and developing of geothermal reservoirs as an iterative process. A first conceptual model for fluid flow and heat transport simulation can be developed based on limited available initial information on geology and rock properties. In the next step, additional data is incorporated which is based on (a) new seismic interpretation methods designed for delineating fracture systems, (b) statistical studies on large numbers of rock samples for estimating reliable rock parameters, (c) in situ estimates of the hydraulic conductivity tensor. This results in a continuous refinement of the reservoir model where inverse modelling of fluid flow and heat transport allows infering the uncertainty and resolution of the model at each iteration step. This finally yields a calibrated reservoir model which may be used to direct further exploration by optimizing additional borehole locations, estimate the uncertainty of key operational and economic parameters, and optimize the long-term operation of a geothermal resrvoir.

The visual communication of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

1999-01-01

This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

Novel biomarkers with potential for cardiovascular risk reclassification.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallikethi-Reddy, Sagar; Briasoulis, Alexandros; Akintoye, Emmanuel; Afonso, Luis

Precise estimation of the absolute risk for CVD events is necessary when making treatment recommendations for patients. A number of multivariate risk models have been developed for estimation of cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals based upon assessment of multiple variables. Due to the inherent limitation of risk models, several novel risk markers including serum biomarkers have been studied in an attempt to improve the cardiovascular risk prediction above and beyond the established risk factors. In this review, we discuss the role of underappreciated biomarkers such as red cell distribution width (RDW), cystatin C (cysC), and homocysteine (Hcy) as well as imaging biomarkers in cardiovascular risk reclassification, and highlight their utility as additional source of information in patients with intermediate risk.

Prudence, preapproval, risk, and utility accountability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This section discusses the inherent risk in utility compliance planning and some means of reducing this risk. The risk originates from the fact that a compliance plan is extremely complex and involves forecasting situations fifteen or twenty years into the future. Two additional uncertainties peculiar to CAAA compliance are that the increased demand for low-sulfur coal and other substitute fuels is expected to place an unanticipatable premium on them and that the price of future emissions allowances is unknown. The prudent investment test and the issue of preapproval are also discussed. 14 refs

Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-14

Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

The association of health risks with on-the-job productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Conti, Daniel J; Schultz, Alyssa B; Pransky, Glenn; Edington, Dee W

2005-08-01

Decreased on-the-job productivity represents a large yet poorly characterized indirect cost to employers. We studied the impact of employee health risk factors on self-reported worker productivity (presenteeism). Using a brief version of the Work Limitation Questionnaire incorporated into a Health Risk Appraisal, 28,375 employees of a national company responded to the survey. The association between health risks and work limitation and each of the four domains was examined. Percentage of lost productivity also was estimated. Ten of 12 health risk factors studied were significantly associated with self-reported work limitations. The strength of the associations varied between risks and the four domains of work limitation. Perception-related risk factors such as life dissatisfaction, job dissatisfaction, poor health, and stress showed the greatest association with presenteeism. As the number of self-reported health risk factors increased, so did the percentage of employees reporting work limitations. Each additional risk factor was associated with 2.4% excess productivity reduction. Medium and high-risk individuals were 6.2% and 12.2% less productive than low-risk individuals, respectively. The annual cost of lost productivity in this corporation was estimated at between 99Mdollars and 185Mdollars or between 1392dollars and 2592dollars per employee. Health risk factors represent additional causes of lost productivity.

Risk assessment perspectives in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, W.D.

1980-01-01

Risk evaluation involves a) optimization, where collective dose is reduced by application of controls, b) justification, where benefits and costs are balanced, and c) application of dose limits. Justification may be determined in general by examining the difference between the new practice and a reference condition in the form of a diference equation. This equation is expanded to take into account other risks in addition to radiation risks. The relative potencies of some toxic chemicals are compared with those of some isotopes. Nuclear and waste disposal accidents are also considered. It is concluded that a probablistic analysis may be useful for resolving the high level radioactive waste question but not for nuclear accidents. However, in the latter case, relative risk models may provide insight into the causes of risk and where resources for reducing the risk may be best spent. (H.K.)

Radiation risks in perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pochin, E.E.

1987-01-01

The problem of risk assessment is greater at the low effective dose rates now observed in the majority of all forms of exposure, usually of less than 3 mSv per year from natural causes, from occupational exposure, and from exposure of 'critical groups' of the general public. For most populations there are particular problems also in epidemiological studies at low dose, in addition to those due to the very large numbers of person-years that need to be studied and the long latencies of most radiation effects. Adequate estimates can, however, now be made of the carcinogenic risk of exposure at higher dose of various organs selectively and of the whole body uniformly, and of modes of inference to the risk at lower dose. Estimates can also be made of the risks of inducing major types of inheritable and developmental abnormality. An essential step in viewing the sum of all such radiation risks in the perspective of other occupational and public risks must now be to develop an informed consensus on the relative weight that is regarded as attaching to hazards of different kind and severity. (author)

Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, A.P.

1977-01-01

Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

Physical Inactivity and Mortality Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Kokkinos

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years a plethora of epidemiologic evidence accumulated supports a strong, independent and inverse, association between physical activity and the fitness status of an individual and mortality in apparently healthy individuals and diseased populations. These health benefits are realized at relatively low fitness levels and increase with higher physical activity patterns or fitness status in a dose-response fashion. The risk reduction is at least in part attributed to the favorable effect of exercise or physical activity on the cardiovascular risk factors, namely, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and obesity. In this review, we examine evidence from epidemiologic and interventional studies in support of the association between exercise and physical activity and health. In addition, we present the exercise effects on the aforementioned risk factors. Finally, we include select dietary approaches and their impact on risk factors and overall mortality risk.

Additional safety assessment of common means or support of the Marcoule centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This report first presents some characteristics of the Marcoule centre: location and environment, base nuclear installations and other installations, technical installations and installations classified for protection of the environment which could affect the safety of nearby installations, demographic and industrial environment and risks generated for the site's installations, general description of crisis management means. The second part addresses situations to be considered, functional needs related to additional safety assessments, needs in terms of support functions, and critical structures and equipment. The next parts address the seismic risk (structure and equipment sizing, margin assessment, flooding due to an earthquake, loss of electric supply due to an earthquake), the flooding risk (flooding sources, main alarm measures, structure and equipment sizing and availability for crisis management during a flooding from different origins), other extreme phenomena (lightning, hail, wind, external fire), the loss of electric supplies and the loss of cooling systems, the organisation of accident management, and subcontracting practices

The impact of hazardous industrial facilities on housing prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric hedonic price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grislain-Letrémy, Céline; Katossky, Arthur

2014-01-01

The willingness of households to pay for prevention against industrial risks can be revealed by real estate markets. By using very rich microdata, we study housing prices in the vicinity of hazardous industries near three important French cities. We show that the impact of hazardous plants...... to important biases in the estimated value of the impact of hazardous plants on housing values....

Adolescence and risk-taking: Reflection of irrationality or rationality?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Videnović Marina

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The frequency of risk-taking behaviours increases during adolescent years. At the same time, cognitive development proceeds from lesser to greater sophistication. We will try to explain the risk-taking paradox: on the one hand, cognitive skills are more mature in adolescence, while, on the other, maladaptive behaviour is present. The main aim of this study is to make a connection between cognitive development and risk-taking. This is slightly unusual, since it is more frequent to look for interactions between emotional and social factors and risk-taking. First, we define what kind of behaviour risk-taking is. There are a few dimensions that could be used for managing through a diversity of definitions. In addition, we examine how important the issue of risky behaviour is in the theories of adolescent's development. Finally, we make a connection between Piaget's, Vygotsky's and Information-Processing models of changes during adolescence and theories and studies about risk-taking in this period of life. Several researchers have tried to make this kind of connection. We propose some additional ways in which predictions from theories of cognitive development could be used for explaining risk-taking behaviour. .

Physical activity, the Framingham risk score and risk of coronary heart disease in men and women of the EPIC-Norfolk study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arsenault, Benoit J.; Rana, Jamal S.; Lemieux, Isabelle; Després, Jean-Pierre; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2010-01-01

Objective: Test the hypothesis that considering leisure-time and work-related physical activity habits in addition to the Framingham risk score (FRS) would result into better classification of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk than FRS alone. Methods: Prospective, population-based study of 9564 men

The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

Science.gov (United States)

Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

2006-01-01

Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

The Strategic-Renovation Banks’ Risks Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeremeychuk Raisa A.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at developing approaches to implementation of the strategic-renovation risk management. Essence of risk theories was researched, the concept of «risk» in the bank’s management system were analyzed. On the basis of a theoretical generalization of scientific literature and the carried out analysis of existing risk management strategies to ensure the security of banking business, the strategy of renovation management has been selected. Because bank risks are part of the economic risk system, they are complex in their nature. However, given the importance of bank risks, the interpretation of their essence is still a debating matter. In a certain number of cases, their essence is replaced by the cause of occurrence, that is, all the different circumstances, factors that lead to the losses. So today, banks are considering risks, in particular, not only as a source of possible losses, but also as an opportunity to generate additional profits. An algorithm for taking a strategic-renovation decision on the banks’ risks management system has been proposed.

Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Identification- A Case Finding from Ghana

OpenAIRE

Nyamah Edmond Yeboah; Yi Feng; Oppong-Sekyere Daniel; Nyamaah Boadi Joseph

2014-01-01

This paper investigates and identifies the probable supply chain related risks in Ghana agricultural supply chain and further seeks the severity of these risks based on engineering judgments and historical records. In addition, this paper probes into participants¡¯ ability level to manage/control the identified risk. The results indicate that, not all global supply chain related risks transpire in Ghana agricultural supply chain. While some risks such as market related risks are inevitable in...

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision