Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

Science.gov (United States)

Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

2017-12-01

The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

Modeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bemelmans, W.J.E.; Lenthe, F. van; Hoogenveen, R.; Kunst, A.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Brandt, P.A. van den; Goldbohm, R.A.; Verschuren, W.M.M.

2006-01-01

Background and Objective: To estimate the effects of reducing the prevalence of smoking in lower educated groups on educational differences in life expectancy. Methods: A dynamic Markov-type multistate transition model estimated the effects on life expectancy of two scenarios. A "maximum scenario"

Expectations contribute to reduced pain levels during prayer in highly religious participants.

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Jegindø, Else-Marie Elmholdt; Vase, Lene; Skewes, Joshua Charles; Terkelsen, Astrid Juhl; Hansen, John; Geertz, Armin W; Roepstorff, Andreas; Jensen, Troels Staehelin

2013-08-01

Although the use of prayer as a religious coping strategy is widespread and often claimed to have positive effects on physical disorders including pain, it has never been tested in a controlled experimental setting whether prayer has a pain relieving effect. Religious beliefs and practices are complex phenomena and the use of prayer may be mediated by general psychological factors known to be related to the pain experience, such as expectations, desire for pain relief, and anxiety. Twenty religious and twenty non-religious healthy volunteers were exposed to painful electrical stimulation during internal prayer to God, a secular contrast condition, and a pain-only control condition. Subjects rated expected pain intensity levels, desire for pain relief, and anxiety before each trial and pain intensity and pain unpleasantness immediately after on mechanical visual analogue scales. Autonomic and cardiovascular measures provided continuous non-invasive objective means for assessing the potential analgesic effects of prayer. Prayer reduced pain intensity by 34 % and pain unpleasantness by 38 % for religious participants, but not for non-religious participants. For religious participants, expectancy and desire predicted 56-64 % of the variance in pain intensity scores, but for non-religious participants, only expectancy was significantly predictive of pain intensity (65-73 %). Conversely, prayer-induced reduction in pain intensity and pain unpleasantness were not followed by autonomic and cardiovascular changes.

Natural Selection Reduced Diversity on Human Y Chromosomes

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Wilson Sayres, Melissa A.; Lohmueller, Kirk E.; Nielsen, Rasmus

2014-01-01

The human Y chromosome exhibits surprisingly low levels of genetic diversity. This could result from neutral processes if the effective population size of males is reduced relative to females due to a higher variance in the number of offspring from males than from females. Alternatively, selection acting on new mutations, and affecting linked neutral sites, could reduce variability on the Y chromosome. Here, using genome-wide analyses of X, Y, autosomal and mitochondrial DNA, in combination with extensive population genetic simulations, we show that low observed Y chromosome variability is not consistent with a purely neutral model. Instead, we show that models of purifying selection are consistent with observed Y diversity. Further, the number of sites estimated to be under purifying selection greatly exceeds the number of Y-linked coding sites, suggesting the importance of the highly repetitive ampliconic regions. While we show that purifying selection removing deleterious mutations can explain the low diversity on the Y chromosome, we cannot exclude the possibility that positive selection acting on beneficial mutations could have also reduced diversity in linked neutral regions, and may have contributed to lowering human Y chromosome diversity. Because the functional significance of the ampliconic regions is poorly understood, our findings should motivate future research in this area. PMID:24415951

Reduced Nicotine Content Expectancies Affect Initial Responses to Smoking.

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Mercincavage, Melissa; Smyth, Joshua M; Strasser, Andrew A; Branstetter, Steven A

2016-10-01

We sought to determine if negative responses to reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes during open-label trials result from smokers' (negative) expectancies. We examined the effects of nicotine content description - independent of actual nicotine content - on subjective responses (craving reduction, withdrawal suppression, mood changes, and sensory ratings) and smoking behaviors (topography measures and carbon monoxide [CO] boost). Thirty-six 12-hour-abstinent daily smokers completed a 3-session crossover trial. During each session, participants smoked their preferred brand cigarette - blinded and described as containing "usual," "low," and "very low" nicotine content - through a topography device and completed CO and subjective response assessments. Although nicotine content was identical, compared to the "usual" content cigarette, participants experienced less craving reduction after smoking the "very low" nicotine cigarette, and rated its smoke as weaker (p marketing and labeling are likely important considerations if a federal nicotine reduction policy is initiated.

Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

2017-07-01

With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

Patients' Expectations and Perceptions of Service Quality in the Selected Hospitals.

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Nadi, Aliasghar; Shojaee, Jalil; Abedi, Ghassem; Siamian, Hasan; Abedini, Ehsan; Rostami, Farideh

2016-04-01

Hospital's success depends on patients' expectations, perceptions, and judgment on the quality of services provided by hospitals. This study was conducted to assess the patients' perceptions and expectations from the quality of inpatient health care in Vali-Asr hospital, Ghaemshahr, and Imam Khomeini and Shafa Hospitals, Sari. This study is applied regarding the objective of the study. Considering the research methodology, it is a descriptive - analytical study. The sample of this study consists of 600 patients with at least 24 hours of being hospitalized in internal, surgery, women, and children sectors of Vali-Asr, Ghaemshahr, Imam Khomeini, and Shafa Hospitals. Using random sampling method, the classifications relevant to the size of each class were selected. The data required was collected through the standard SERVQUAL questionnaire and then it was analyzed using the SPSS software. The overall mean value and standard deviation of expectations were equal to 10.4 and 28, respectively. The mean value for the field of perception was 69.2 and the relevant standard deviation was 26. In terms of patients and hospital visits in concrete cases, the highest priority is related to empathy. The second priority is related to physical appearance, the third priority is related to responsiveness, the fourth priority is related to assurance, and the lowest priority is related to the reliability of the SERVQUAL approach. Examining the gap between patients' perceptions and expectations, the widest gap was observed in the Vali-Asr Hospital with the mean and SD (-92.0±39.0) and the lowest gap was observed in Shafa Hospital with the mean value of (-39.9±44.0). According to The Kruskal-Wallis test, the difference observed in these three hospitals were significant. The results showed that patients' expectations had not been met in any of the examined dimensions and their consent has not been achieved. It seemed that necessary for managers and relevant authorities to plan and pay

Selection dramatically reduces effective population size in HIV-1 infection

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Mittler John E

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In HIV-1 evolution, a 100–100,000 fold discrepancy between census size and effective population size (Ne has been noted. Although it is well known that selection can reduce Ne, high in vivo mutation and recombination rates complicate attempts to quantify the effects of selection on HIV-1 effective size. Results We use the inbreeding coefficient and the variance in allele frequency at a linked neutral locus to estimate the reduction in Ne due to selection in the presence of mutation and recombination. With biologically realistic mutation rates, the reduction in Ne due to selection is determined by the strength of selection, i.e., the stronger the selection, the greater the reduction. However, the dependence of Ne on selection can break down if recombination rates are very high (e.g., r ≥ 0.1. With biologically likely recombination rates, our model suggests that recurrent selective sweeps similar to those observed in vivo can reduce within-host HIV-1 effective population sizes by a factor of 300 or more. Conclusion Although other factors, such as unequal viral reproduction rates and limited migration between tissue compartments contribute to reductions in Ne, our model suggests that recurrent selection plays a significant role in reducing HIV-1 effective population sizes in vivo.

Development and Validation of a Quantitative Framework and Management Expectation Tool for the Selection of Bioremediation Approaches at Chlorinated Ethene Sites

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

FINAL REPORT Development and Validation of a Quantitative Framework and Management Expectation Tool for the Selection of Bioremediation ...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Development and Validation of a Quantitative Framework and Management Expectation Tool for the Selection of Bioremediation ...project ER-201129 was to develop and validate a framework used to make bioremediation decisions based on site-specific physical and biogeochemical

Genetic parameters and expected responses to selection for components of feed efficiency in a Duroc pig line.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez, Juan P; Ragab, Mohamed; Quintanilla, Raquel; Rothschild, Max F; Piles, Miriam

2017-12-01

Improving feed efficiency ([Formula: see text]) is a key factor for any pig breeding company. Although this can be achieved by selection on an index of multi-trait best linear unbiased prediction of breeding values with optimal economic weights, considering deviations of feed intake from actual needs ([Formula: see text]) should be of value for further research on biological aspects of [Formula: see text]. Here, we present a random regression model that extends the classical definition of [Formula: see text] by including animal-specific needs in the model. Using this model, we explore the genetic determinism of several [Formula: see text] components: use of feed for growth ([Formula: see text]), use of feed for backfat deposition ([Formula: see text]), use of feed for maintenance ([Formula: see text]), and unspecific efficiency in the use of feed ([Formula: see text]). Expected response to alternative selection indexes involving different components is also studied. Based on goodness-of-fit to the available feed intake ([Formula: see text]) data, the model that assumes individual (genetic and permanent) variation in the use of feed for maintenance, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] showed the best performance. Joint individual variation in feed allocation to maintenance, growth and backfat deposition comprised 37% of the individual variation of [Formula: see text]. The estimated heritabilities of [Formula: see text] using the model that accounts for animal-specific needs and the traditional [Formula: see text] model were 0.12 and 0.18, respectively. The estimated heritabilities for the regression coefficients were 0.44, 0.39 and 0.55 for [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively. Estimates of genetic correlations of [Formula: see text] were positive with amount of feed used for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] but negative for [Formula: see text]. Expected response in overall efficiency, reducing [Formula

Reduced auditory efferent activity in childhood selective mutism.

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Bar-Haim, Yair; Henkin, Yael; Ari-Even-Roth, Daphne; Tetin-Schneider, Simona; Hildesheimer, Minka; Muchnik, Chava

2004-06-01

Selective mutism is a psychiatric disorder of childhood characterized by consistent inability to speak in specific situations despite the ability to speak normally in others. The objective of this study was to test whether reduced auditory efferent activity, which may have direct bearings on speaking behavior, is compromised in selectively mute children. Participants were 16 children with selective mutism and 16 normally developing control children matched for age and gender. All children were tested for pure-tone audiometry, speech reception thresholds, speech discrimination, middle-ear acoustic reflex thresholds and decay function, transient evoked otoacoustic emission, suppression of transient evoked otoacoustic emission, and auditory brainstem response. Compared with control children, selectively mute children displayed specific deficiencies in auditory efferent activity. These aberrations in efferent activity appear along with normal pure-tone and speech audiometry and normal brainstem transmission as indicated by auditory brainstem response latencies. The diminished auditory efferent activity detected in some children with SM may result in desensitization of their auditory pathways by self-vocalization and in reduced control of masking and distortion of incoming speech sounds. These children may gradually learn to restrict vocalization to the minimal amount possible in contexts that require complex auditory processing.

Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

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McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

2012-03-01

The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Ultrasensitive and Selective Organic FET-type Nonenzymatic Dopamine Sensor Based on Platinum Nanoparticles-Decorated Reduced Graphene Oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Jungkyun; Lee, Jun Seop; Jun, Jaemoon; Kim, Sung Gun; Jang, Jyongsik

2017-11-15

Dopamine (DA), a catecholamine hormone, is an important neurotransmitter that controls renal and cardiovascular organizations and regulates physiological activities. Abnormal concentrations of DA cause unfavorable neuronal illnesses such as Parkinson's disease, schizophrenia, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/attention deficit disorder. However, the DA concentration is exceedingly low in patients and difficult to detect with existing biosensors. In this study, we developed an organic field-effect-transistor-type (OFET) nonenzyme biosensor using platinum nanoparticle-decorated reduced graphene oxide (Pt_rGO) for ultrasensitive and selective DA detection. The Pt_rGOs were fabricated by reducing GO aqueous solution-containing Pt precursors (PtCl 4 ) with a chemical reducing agent. The Pt_rGOs were immobilized on a graphene substrate by π-π interactions and a conducting-polymer source-drain electrode was patterned on the substrate to form the DA sensor. The resulting OFET sensor showed a high sensitivity to remarkably low DA concentrations (100 × 10 -18 M) and selectivity among interfering molecules. Good stability was expected for the OFET sensor because it was fabricated without an enzymatic receptor, and π-π conjugation is a part of the immobilization process. Furthermore, the OFET sensors are flexible and offer the possibility of wide application as wearable and portable sensors.

Income Expectations of University Students: Sample of Selected Economic Universities in the Czech Republic, England and Poland

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Kateřina Maršíková

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to analyze students’ perceptions and expectations of their future incomes. By doing so, authors bring a possible quantitative argument about the rate of return of investment into higher education based on data from selected economic universities, and thus open space for discussion about financing of Czech public universities from public or private sources. The authors used data from a large survey among students of selected faculties of economics and compared the results from Czech, Polish and English respondents. All the performed tests have indicated and identified one critical finding that confirmed results of previous surveys:the value of the spot expected rates of return on investment to tertiary education for the Czech Republic never falls below 8.45 per cent, even when allowed for gender of respondents, knowledge about income of respondents’ friends, or level of education of respondents’ parents.

Sparse Reduced-Rank Regression for Simultaneous Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection

KAUST Repository

Chen, Lisha

2012-12-01

The reduced-rank regression is an effective method in predicting multiple response variables from the same set of predictor variables. It reduces the number of model parameters and takes advantage of interrelations between the response variables and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the regression coefficients as a group and show that this penalty satisfies certain desirable invariance properties. We develop two numerical algorithms to solve the penalized regression problem and establish the asymptotic consistency of the proposed method. In particular, the manifold structure of the reduced-rank regression coefficient matrix is considered and studied in our theoretical analysis. In our simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with several existing variable selection methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Expectancy bias in a selective conditioning procedure: trait anxiety increases the threat value of a blocked stimulus.

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Boddez, Yannick; Vervliet, Bram; Baeyens, Frank; Lauwers, Stephanie; Hermans, Dirk; Beckers, Tom

2012-06-01

In a blocking procedure, a single conditioned stimulus (CS) is paired with an unconditioned stimulus (US), such as electric shock, in the first stage. During the subsequent stage, the CS is presented together with a second CS and this compound is followed by the same US. Fear conditioning studies in non-human animals have demonstrated that fear responding to the added second CS typically remains low, despite its being paired with the US. Accordingly, the blocking procedure is well suited as a laboratory model for studying (deficits in) selective threat appraisal. The present study tested the relation between trait anxiety and blocking in human aversive conditioning. Healthy participants filled in a trait anxiety questionnaire and underwent blocking treatment in the human aversive conditioning paradigm. Threat appraisal was measured through shock expectancy ratings and skin conductance. As hypothesized, trait anxiety was positively associated with shock expectancy ratings to the blocked stimulus. In skin conductance responding, no significant effects of stimulus type could be detected during blocking training or testing. The current study does not allow strong claims to be made regarding the theoretical process underlying the expectancy bias we observed. The observed shock expectancy bias might be one of the mechanisms leading to non-specific fear in individuals at risk for developing anxiety disorders. A deficit in blocking, or a deficit in selective threat appraisal at the more general level, indeed results in fear becoming non-specific and disconnected from the most likely causes or predictors of danger. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing information needs to reduce the audit expectation gap : Evidence from Dutch bankers, audited companies and auditors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Litjens, Robin

2015-01-01

This study examines what the impact is of frequently proposed information needs on reducing the audit expectations gap (AEG), including information about the audited company, information about the audit process and changes to the auditors' report. We base our findings on a survey of 302 participants

Expected damages of retrofitted bridges with RC jacketing

Science.gov (United States)

Montes, O.; Jara, J. M.; Jara, M.; Olmos, B. A.

2015-07-01

The bridge infrastructure in many countries of the world consists of medium span length structures built several decades ago and designed for very low seismic forces. Many of them are reinforced concrete structures that according to the current code regulations have to be rehabilitated to increase their seismic capacity. One way to reduce the vulnerability of the bridges is by using retrofitting techniques that increase the strength of the structure or by incorporating devices to reduce the seismic demand. One of the most common retrofit techniques of the bridges substructures is the use of RC jacketing; this research assesses the expected damages of seismically deficient medium length highway bridges retrofitted with reinforced concrete jacketing, by conducting a parametric study. We select a suite of twenty accelerograms of subduction earthquakes recorded close to the Pacific Coast in Mexico. The original structures consist of five 30 m span simple supported bridges with five pier heights of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m 20 and 25 m and the analyses include three different jacket thickness and three steel ratios. The bridges were subjected to the seismic records and non-linear time history analyses were carried out by using the OpenSEEs Plataform. Results allow selecting the reinforced concrete jacketing that better improves the expected seismic behavior of the bridge models.

Expected damages of retrofitted bridges with RC jacketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montes, O; Jara, J M; Jara, M; Olmos, B A

2015-01-01

The bridge infrastructure in many countries of the world consists of medium span length structures built several decades ago and designed for very low seismic forces. Many of them are reinforced concrete structures that according to the current code regulations have to be rehabilitated to increase their seismic capacity. One way to reduce the vulnerability of the bridges is by using retrofitting techniques that increase the strength of the structure or by incorporating devices to reduce the seismic demand. One of the most common retrofit techniques of the bridges substructures is the use of RC jacketing; this research assesses the expected damages of seismically deficient medium length highway bridges retrofitted with reinforced concrete jacketing, by conducting a parametric study. We select a suite of twenty accelerograms of subduction earthquakes recorded close to the Pacific Coast in Mexico. The original structures consist of five 30 m span simple supported bridges with five pier heights of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m 20 and 25 m and the analyses include three different jacket thickness and three steel ratios. The bridges were subjected to the seismic records and non-linear time history analyses were carried out by using the OpenSEEs Plataform. Results allow selecting the reinforced concrete jacketing that better improves the expected seismic behavior of the bridge models. (paper)

Social polyandry, parental investment, sexual selection, and evolution of reduced female gamete size.

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Andersson, Malte

2004-01-01

Sexual selection in the form of sperm competition is a major explanation for small size of male gametes. Can sexual selection in polyandrous species with reversed sex roles also lead to reduced female gamete size? Comparative studies show that egg size in birds tends to decrease as a lineage evolves social polyandry. Here, a quantitative genetic model predicts that female scrambles over mates lead to evolution of reduced female gamete size. Increased female mating success drives the evolution of smaller eggs, which take less time to produce, until balanced by lowered offspring survival. Mean egg size is usually reduced and polyandry increased by increasing sex ratio (male bias) and maximum possible number of mates. Polyandry also increases with the asynchrony (variance) in female breeding start. Opportunity for sexual selection increases with the maximum number of mates but decreases with increasing sex ratio. It is well known that parental investment can affect sexual selection. The model suggests that the influence is mutual: owing to a coevolutionary feedback loop, sexual selection in females also shapes initial parental investment by reducing egg size. Feedback between sexual selection and parental investment may be common.

Managing risk and expected financial return from selective expansion of operating room capacity: mean-variance analysis of a hospital's portfolio of surgeons.

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Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes

2003-07-01

Surgeons using the same amount of operating room (OR) time differ in their achieved hospital contribution margins (revenue minus variable costs) by >1000%. Thus, to improve the financial return from perioperative facilities, OR strategic decisions should selectively focus additional OR capacity and capital purchasing on a few surgeons or subspecialties. These decisions use estimates of each surgeon's and/or subspecialty's contribution margin per OR hour. The estimates are subject to uncertainty (e.g., from outliers). We account for the uncertainties by using mean-variance portfolio analysis (i.e., quadratic programming). This method characterizes the problem of selectively expanding OR capacity based on the expected financial return and risk of different portfolios of surgeons. The assessment reveals whether the choices, of which surgeons have their OR capacity expanded, are sensitive to the uncertainties in the surgeons' contribution margins per OR hour. Thus, mean-variance analysis reduces the chance of making strategic decisions based on spurious information. We also assess the financial benefit of using mean-variance portfolio analysis when the planned expansion of OR capacity is well diversified over at least several surgeons or subspecialties. Our results show that, in such circumstances, there may be little benefit from further changing the portfolio to reduce its financial risk. Surgeon and subspecialty specific hospital financial data are uncertain, a fact that should be taken into account when making decisions about expanding operating room capacity. We show that mean-variance portfolio analysis can incorporate this uncertainty, thereby guiding operating room management decision-making and reducing the chance of a strategic decision being made based on spurious information.

Postcopulatory sexual selection is associated with reduced variation in sperm morphology.

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Sara Calhim

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The evolutionary role of postcopulatory sexual selection in shaping male reproductive traits, including sperm morphology, is well documented in several taxa. However, previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the influence of sperm competition on variation among species. In this study we tested the hypothesis that intraspecific variation in sperm morphology is driven by the level of postcopulatory sexual selection in passerine birds.Using two proxy measures of sperm competition level, (i relative testes size and (ii extrapair paternity level, we found strong evidence that intermale variation in sperm morphology is negatively associated with the degree of postcopulatory sexual selection, independently of phylogeny.Our results show that the role of postcopulatory sexual selection in the evolution of sperm morphology extends to an intraspecific level, reducing the variation towards what might be a species-specific 'optimum' sperm phenotype. This finding suggests that while postcopulatory selection is generally directional (e.g., favouring longer sperm across avian species, it also acts as a stabilising evolutionary force within species under intense selection, resulting in reduced variation in sperm morphology traits. We discuss some potential evolutionary mechanisms for this pattern.

Evolutionary Feature Selection for Big Data Classification: A MapReduce Approach

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Daniel Peralta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, many disciplines have to deal with big datasets that additionally involve a high number of features. Feature selection methods aim at eliminating noisy, redundant, or irrelevant features that may deteriorate the classification performance. However, traditional methods lack enough scalability to cope with datasets of millions of instances and extract successful results in a delimited time. This paper presents a feature selection algorithm based on evolutionary computation that uses the MapReduce paradigm to obtain subsets of features from big datasets. The algorithm decomposes the original dataset in blocks of instances to learn from them in the map phase; then, the reduce phase merges the obtained partial results into a final vector of feature weights, which allows a flexible application of the feature selection procedure using a threshold to determine the selected subset of features. The feature selection method is evaluated by using three well-known classifiers (SVM, Logistic Regression, and Naive Bayes implemented within the Spark framework to address big data problems. In the experiments, datasets up to 67 millions of instances and up to 2000 attributes have been managed, showing that this is a suitable framework to perform evolutionary feature selection, improving both the classification accuracy and its runtime when dealing with big data problems.

Non-selective beta-blockers may reduce risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thiele, Maja; Albillos, Agustín; Abazi, Rozeta

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) are used in patients with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices. Experimental data suggest that NSBB inhibit angiogenesis and reduce bacterial translocation, which may prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We therefore assessed the effect of NSBB...

Contribution of Personality to Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectations in Selecting a High School Major among Adolescents with Learning Disabilities

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Brown, Dikla; Cinamon, Rachel Gali

2016-01-01

The current study focuses on the contribution of five personality traits to the development of self-efficacy and outcome expectations regarding selecting a high school major among adolescents with learning disabilities (LD). Social cognitive career theory and the Big Five personality traits model served as the theoretical framework. Participants…

Long term selection for reduced or increased pecking behaviour in laying hens

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buitenhuis, A J; Kjaer, J B

2008-01-01

Feather pecking in laying hens is an important issue in animal welfare. Four studies in laying hens were selected which investigated increased or reduced pecking behaviour using direct or indirect measures of feather pecking behaviour. Direct comparison of the selected experiments is difficult......, as the selection criteria and even the selection procedures varied. Keeping these differences in mind, the results of the experiments showed that a) It is possible to change pecking behaviour in the desired direction using selection, b) Aggressive pecking is not related to feather pecking, c) There is no clear...... that dopamine also plays a role in the regulation of pecking behaviour, and finally e) There are differences between the selected lines and their control lines with regard to the immune parameters both in the individual selected lines as the group selected lines, indicating that direct as well as indirect...

Density dependence triggers runaway selection of reduced senescence.

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Robert M Seymour

2007-12-01

Full Text Available In the presence of exogenous mortality risks, future reproduction by an individual is worth less than present reproduction to its fitness. Senescent aging thus results inevitably from transferring net fertility into younger ages. Some long-lived organisms appear to defy theory, however, presenting negligible senescence (e.g., hydra and extended lifespans (e.g., Bristlecone Pine. Here, we investigate the possibility that the onset of vitality loss can be delayed indefinitely, even accepting the abundant evidence that reproduction is intrinsically costly to survival. For an environment with constant hazard, we establish that natural selection itself contributes to increasing density-dependent recruitment losses. We then develop a generalized model of accelerating vitality loss for analyzing fitness optima as a tradeoff between compression and spread in the age profile of net fertility. Across a realistic spectrum of senescent age profiles, density regulation of recruitment can trigger runaway selection for ever-reducing senescence. This novel prediction applies without requirement for special life-history characteristics such as indeterminate somatic growth or increasing fecundity with age. The evolution of nonsenescence from senescence is robust to the presence of exogenous adult mortality, which tends instead to increase the age-independent component of vitality loss. We simulate examples of runaway selection leading to negligible senescence and even intrinsic immortality.

Marker Assisted Selection can Reduce True as well as Pedigree Estimated Inbreeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, L D; Sørensen, A C; Berg, P

2009-01-01

This study investigated whether selection using genotype information reduced the rate and level of true inbreeding, that is, identity by descent, at a selectively neutral locus as well as a locus under selection compared with traditional BLUP selection. In addition, the founder representation...... each of 40 herds. Selection was performed using BLUP, marker-assisted, or gene-assisted selection for a trait with low heritability (h2 = 0.04) only expressed in females, mimicking a health trait. The simulated genome consisted of 2 chromosomes. One biallelic quantitative trait loci (QTL......) with an initial frequency of the favorable allele of 0.1, and initially explaining 25% of the genetic variance as well as 4 markers were simulated in linkage disequilibrium, all positioned at chromosome 1. Chromosome 2 was selectively neutral, and consisted of a single neutral locus. The results showed...

Future Expectations of High School Students In Southeastern Turkey: Factors behind Future Expectations

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Hüseyin Şimşek

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study was conducted to identify various future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey and factors behind their expectations. The sample of the study, which had a descriptive and associational survey design consisted of 1106 students randomly selected from 54 different high schools located in nine cities in southeastern Turkey. Data were collected through the “Future Expectation Scale (FES” developed by the researcher. Results indicated that personal and professional future, educational future, economic future and social future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey were generally above the average level. According to the study, being a teacher and a doctor took the first place among several professions to be further preferred by high school students. It was also concluded that future expectations of high school students did not differ on gender, high school type, CGPA, level of mother education, father’s occupation, family income level, the number of siblings, receiving pre-school education, and language spoken at home. On the other hand, future expectations of high school students were found to differ on the city where students being taught, grade level, corporal punishment, and tendency toward being a dropout.

Great expectations and what comes of it: the effects of unmet expectations on work motivation and outcomes among newcomers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Taris, T.W.; Feij, J.A.; Capel, S.

2006-01-01

The present research focused on newcomers' socialization process in a three-wave study among 1477 newcomers from seven Western (mainly European) countries. Based on previous research, we expected that unmet expectations regarding selected intrinsic work aspects would have adverse effects on work

Analysis of Service Quality Gap between Perceptions and Expectations of Service Recipients using SERVQUAL Approach in Selected Hospitals in Golestan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Hoseini Rostami

2018-03-01

Conclusions: The largest gap between perceptions and expectances was about reliability and tangibles dimensions that can likely be reduced by the staff appearance, physical environment, and utilization of suitable equipment and assurance to patients.

Sparse Reduced-Rank Regression for Simultaneous Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection

KAUST Repository

Chen, Lisha; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2012-01-01

and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the regression coefficients as a group

Contrasting Patterns of Genomic Diversity Reveal Accelerated Genetic Drift but Reduced Directional Selection on X-Chromosome in Wild and Domestic Sheep Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ze-Hui; Zhang, Min; Lv, Feng-Hua; Ren, Xue; Li, Wen-Rong; Liu, Ming-Jun; Nam, Kiwoong; Bruford, Michael W; Li, Meng-Hua

2018-04-01

Analyses of genomic diversity along the X chromosome and of its correlation with autosomal diversity can facilitate understanding of evolutionary forces in shaping sex-linked genomic architecture. Strong selective sweeps and accelerated genetic drift on the X-chromosome have been inferred in primates and other model species, but no such insight has yet been gained in domestic animals compared with their wild relatives. Here, we analyzed X-chromosome variability in a large ovine data set, including a BeadChip array for 943 ewes from the world's sheep populations and 110 whole genomes of wild and domestic sheep. Analyzing whole-genome sequences, we observed a substantially reduced X-to-autosome diversity ratio (∼0.6) compared with the value expected under a neutral model (0.75). In particular, one large X-linked segment (43.05-79.25 Mb) was found to show extremely low diversity, most likely due to a high density of coding genes, featuring highly conserved regions. In general, we observed higher nucleotide diversity on the autosomes, but a flat diversity gradient in X-linked segments, as a function of increasing distance from the nearest genes, leading to a decreased X: autosome (X/A) diversity ratio and contrasting to the positive correlation detected in primates and other model animals. Our evidence suggests that accelerated genetic drift but reduced directional selection on X chromosome, as well as sex-biased demographic events, explain low X-chromosome diversity in sheep species. The distinct patterns of X-linked and X/A diversity we observed between Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern sheep populations can be explained by multiple migrations, selection, and admixture during the domestic sheep's recent postdomestication demographic expansion, coupled with natural selection for adaptation to new environments. In addition, we identify important novel genes involved in abnormal behavioral phenotypes, metabolism, and immunity, under selection on the sheep X-chromosome.

Age-ordered shirt numbering reduces the selection bias associated with the relative age effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, David L; van Ginneken, Pleun J M A

2017-04-01

When placed into age groups for junior sporting competition, the relative differences in age between children leads to a bias in who is evaluated as being talented. While the impact of this relative age effect (RAE) is clear, until now there has been no evidence to show how to reduce it. The aim of this study was to determine whether the selection bias associated with the RAE could be reduced. Talent scouts from an elite football club watched junior games and ranked players on the basis of their potential. Scouts were allocated to one of three groups provided with contrasting information about the age of the players: (1) no age information, (2) players' birthdates or (3) knowledge that the numbers on the playing shirts corresponded to the relative age of the players. Results revealed a significant selection bias for the scouts in the no-age information group, and that bias remained when scouts knew the players' dates-of-birth. Strikingly though, the selection bias was eliminated when scouts watched the games knowing the shirt numbers corresponded to the relative ages of the players. The selection bias associated with the RAE can be reduced if information about age is presented appropriately.

Gains in Life Expectancy Associated with Higher Education in Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Bijwaard, Govert E; van Poppel, Frans; Ekamper, Peter; Lumey, L H

2015-01-01

Many studies show large differences in life expectancy across the range of education, intelligence, and socio-economic status. As educational attainment, intelligence, and socio-economic status are highly interrelated, appropriate methods are required to disentangle their separate effects. The aim of this paper is to present a novel method to estimate gains in life expectancy specifically associated with increased education. Our analysis is based on a structural model in which education level, IQ at age 18 and mortality all depend on (latent) intelligence. The model allows for (selective) educational choices based on observed factors and on an unobserved factor capturing intelligence. Our estimates are based on information from health examinations of military conscripts born in 1944-1947 in The Netherlands and their vital status through age 66 (n = 39,798). Our empirical results show that men with higher education have lower mortality. Using structural models to account for education choice, the estimated gain in life expectancy for men moving up one educational level ranges from 0.3 to 2 years. The estimated gain in months alive over the observational period ranges from -1.2 to 5.7 months. The selection effect is positive and amounts to a gain of one to two months. Decomposition of the selection effect shows that the gain from selection on (latent) intelligence is larger than the gain from selection on observed factors and amounts to 1.0 to 1.7 additional months alive. Our findings confirm the strong selection into education based on socio-economic status and intelligence. They also show significant higher life expectancy among individuals with higher education after the selectivity of education choice has been taken into account. Based on these estimates, it is plausible therefore that increases in education could lead to increases in life expectancy.

Opposing effects of expectancy and somatic focus on pain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalie E Johnston

Full Text Available High-pain expectancy increases pain and pain-related brain activity, creating a cycle of psychologically maintained pain. Though these effects are robust, little is known about how expectancy works and what psychological processes either support or mitigate its effects. To address this, we independently manipulated pain expectancy and "top-down" attention to the body, and examined their effects on both a performance-based measure of body-focus and heat-induced pain. Multi-level mediation analyses showed that high-pain expectancy substantially increased pain, replicating previous work. However, attention to the body reduced pain, partially suppressing the effects of expectancy. Furthermore, increased body-focus had larger pain-reducing effects when pain expectancy was high, suggesting that attempts to focus on external distractors are counterproductive in this situation. Overall, the results show that attention to the body cannot explain pain-enhancing expectancy effects, and that focusing on sensory/discriminative aspects of pain might be a useful pain-regulation strategy when severe pain is expected.

Opposing Effects of Expectancy and Somatic Focus on Pain

Science.gov (United States)

Wager, Tor D.

2012-01-01

High-pain expectancy increases pain and pain-related brain activity, creating a cycle of psychologically maintained pain. Though these effects are robust, little is known about how expectancy works and what psychological processes either support or mitigate its effects. To address this, we independently manipulated pain expectancy and “top-down” attention to the body, and examined their effects on both a performance-based measure of body-focus and heat-induced pain. Multi-level mediation analyses showed that high-pain expectancy substantially increased pain, replicating previous work. However, attention to the body reduced pain, partially suppressing the effects of expectancy. Furthermore, increased body-focus had larger pain-reducing effects when pain expectancy was high, suggesting that attempts to focus on external distractors are counterproductive in this situation. Overall, the results show that attention to the body cannot explain pain-enhancing expectancy effects, and that focusing on sensory/discriminative aspects of pain might be a useful pain-regulation strategy when severe pain is expected. PMID:22723896

How and why actions are selected: action selection and the dark room problem

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Venter Elmarie

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, I examine an evolutionary approach to the action selection problem and illustrate how it helps raise an objection to the predictive processing account. Clark examines the predictive processing account as a theory of brain function that aims to unify perception, action, and cognition, but - despite this aim - fails to consider action selection overtly. He off ers an account of action control with the implication that minimizing prediction error is an imperative of living organisms because, according to the predictive processing account, action is employed to fulfill expectations and reduce prediction error. One way in which this can be achieved is by seeking out the least stimulating environment and staying there (Friston et al. 2012: 2. Bayesian, neuroscientific, and machine learning approaches into a single framework whose overarching principle is the minimization of surprise (or, equivalently, the maximization of expectation. But, most living organisms do not find, and stay in, surprise free environments. This paper explores this objection, also called the “dark room problem”, and examines Clark’s response to the problem. Finally, I recommend that if supplemented with an account of action selection, Clark’s account will avoid the dark room problem.

Modifying alcohol expectancies of Hispanic children: examining the effects of expectancy-targeted, developmentally congruous prevention videos.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstein, Allison; Lisman, Stephen A; Johnson, Matthew D

2015-03-01

Children's expectations about the effects of alcohol consumption are known to predict the amount of alcohol they consume as adults. Previous research has used videotaped interventions to modify children's alcohol expectancies and found that puppet actors had the expected effect of decreasing children's positive alcohol expectancies, whereas adult actors did not. The current study sought to enhance the methods and outcomes of previous research by developing brief prevention videos that focus on pre-selected negative and sedating alcohol expectancies and include youth actors and age-relevant scenarios. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design (actor's age [youth or adult] × scenario relevance [youth or adult]), we examined the alcohol expectancies of 183 Hispanic third-, fourth-, and fifth-grade students (50% girls) in a public school setting. Expectancies were assessed before, immediately following the intervention, and 1 month later. The intervention consisted of four 8-minute videos based on beliefs associated with expectancies related to low alcohol consumption and a control group video about school bus safety. Positive alcohol expectancies were significantly lower directly after the intervention than at baseline. At 1-month follow-up, this effect decreased but was still significant. The current study adds to existing findings that expectancies can be modified in children, using interventions that are extremely brief, low-cost, and linked to research in children's cognitive and social development. In addition, it appears that children of different ages and genders respond differently to varying components of prevention media.

Prediction error variance and expected response to selection, when selection is based on the best predictor - for Gaussian and threshold characters, traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anders Holst; Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Jensen, Just

2002-01-01

In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed...... or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found - otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non...... Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits - and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part...

Supplementation of Nucleosides During Selection can Reduce Sequence Variant Levels in CHO Cells Using GS/MSX Selection System.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Danming; Lam, Cynthia; Louie, Salina; Hoi, Kam Hon; Shaw, David; Yim, Mandy; Snedecor, Brad; Misaghi, Shahram

2018-01-01

In the process of generating stable monoclonal antibody (mAb) producing cell lines, reagents such as methotrexate (MTX) or methionine sulfoximine (MSX) are often used. However, using such selection reagent(s) increases the possibility of having higher occurrence of sequence variants in the expressed antibody molecules due to the effects of MTX or MSX on de novo nucleotide synthesis. Since MSX inhibits glutamine synthase (GS) and results in both amino acid and nucleoside starvation, it is questioned whether supplementing nucleosides into the media could lower sequence variant levels without affecting titer. The results show that the supplementation of nucleosides to the media during MSX selection decreased genomic DNA mutagenesis rates in the selected cells, probably by reducing nucleotide mis-incorporation into the DNA. Furthermore, addition of nucleosides enhance clone recovery post selection and does not affect antibody expression. It is further observed that nucleoside supplements lowered DNA mutagenesis rates only at the initial stage of the clone selection and do not have any effect on DNA mutagenesis rates after stable cell lines are established. Therefore, the data suggests that addition of nucleosides during early stages of MSX selection can lower sequence variant levels without affecting titer or clone stability in antibody expression. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reducing wrong patient selection errors: exploring the design space of user interface techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Sopan, Awalin; Plaisant, Catherine; Powsner, Seth; Shneiderman, Ben

2014-01-01

Wrong patient selection errors are a major issue for patient safety; from ordering medication to performing surgery, the stakes are high. Widespread adoption of Electronic Health Record (EHR) and Computerized Provider Order Entry (CPOE) systems makes patient selection using a computer screen a frequent task for clinicians. Careful design of the user interface can help mitigate the problem by helping providers recall their patients' identities, accurately select their names, and spot errors before orders are submitted. We propose a catalog of twenty seven distinct user interface techniques, organized according to a task analysis. An associated video demonstrates eighteen of those techniques. EHR designers who consider a wider range of human-computer interaction techniques could reduce selection errors, but verification of efficacy is still needed.

Selectively Encrypted Pull-Up Based Watermarking of Biometric data

Science.gov (United States)

Shinde, S. A.; Patel, Kushal S.

2012-10-01

Biometric authentication systems are becoming increasingly popular due to their potential usage in information security. However, digital biometric data (e.g. thumb impression) are themselves vulnerable to security attacks. There are various methods are available to secure biometric data. In biometric watermarking the data are embedded in an image container and are only retrieved if the secrete key is available. This container image is encrypted to have more security against the attack. As wireless devices are equipped with battery as their power supply, they have limited computational capabilities; therefore to reduce energy consumption we use the method of selective encryption of container image. The bit pull-up-based biometric watermarking scheme is based on amplitude modulation and bit priority which reduces the retrieval error rate to great extent. By using selective Encryption mechanism we expect more efficiency in time at the time of encryption as well as decryption. Significant reduction in error rate is expected to be achieved by the bit pull-up method.

Expectations Do Not Alter Early Sensory Processing during Perceptual Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rungratsameetaweemana, Nuttida; Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Salazar, Annalisa; Serences, John T

2018-06-13

Two factors play important roles in shaping perception: the allocation of selective attention to behaviorally relevant sensory features, and prior expectations about regularities in the environment. Signal detection theory proposes distinct roles of attention and expectation on decision-making such that attention modulates early sensory processing, whereas expectation influences the selection and execution of motor responses. Challenging this classic framework, recent studies suggest that expectations about sensory regularities enhance the encoding and accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making. However, it is possible, that these findings reflect well documented attentional modulations in visual cortex. Here, we tested this framework in a group of male and female human participants by examining how expectations about stimulus features (orientation and color) and expectations about motor responses impacted electroencephalography (EEG) markers of early sensory processing and the accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making (the early visual negative potential and the centro-parietal positive potential, respectively). We first demonstrate that these markers are sensitive to changes in the amount of sensory evidence in the display. Then we show, counter to recent findings, that neither marker is modulated by either feature or motor expectations, despite a robust effect of expectations on behavior. Instead, violating expectations about likely sensory features and motor responses impacts posterior alpha and frontal theta oscillations, signals thought to index overall processing time and cognitive conflict. These findings are inconsistent with recent theoretical accounts and suggest instead that expectations primarily influence decisions by modulating post-perceptual stages of information processing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Expectations about likely features or motor responses play an important role in shaping behavior. Classic theoretical

Selective chloroform sensor using thiol functionalized reduced graphene oxide at room temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Midya, Anupam; Mukherjee, Subhrajit; Roy, Shreyasee; Santra, Sumita; Manna, Nilotpal; Ray, Samit K.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a highly selective chloroform sensor using functionalised reduced graphene oxide (RGO) as a sensing layer. Thiol group is covalently attached on the basal plan of RGO film by a simple one-step aryl diazonium chemistry to improve its selectivity. Several spectroscopic techniques like X-ray photoelectron, Raman and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirm successful thiol functionalization of RGO. Finally, the fabricated chemiresistor type sensor is exposed to chloroform in the concentration range 200-800 ppm (parts per million). The sensor shows a 4.3% of response towards 800 ppm chloroform. The selectivity of the sensor is analyzed using various volatile organic compounds as well. The devices show enhanced response and faster recovery attributed to the physiosorption of chloroform onto thiol functionalized graphene making them attractive for 2D materials based sensing applications.

When feeling bad is expected to be good: emotion regulation and outcome expectancies in social conflicts.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamir, Maya; Ford, Brett Q

2012-08-01

According to the instrumental approach to emotion regulation, people may want to experience even unpleasant emotions to attain instrumental benefits. Building on value-expectancy models of self-regulation, we tested whether people want to feel bad in certain contexts specifically because they expect such feelings to be useful to them. In two studies, participants were more likely to try to increase their anger before a negotiation when motivated to confront (vs. collaborate with) a negotiation partner. Participants motivated to confront (vs. collaborate with) their partner expected anger to be more useful to them, and this expectation in turn, led them to try to increase their anger before negotiating. The subsequent experience of anger, following random assignment to emotion inductions (Study 1) or engagement in self-selected emotion regulation activities (Study 2), led participants to be more successful at getting others to concede to their demands, demonstrating that emotional preferences have important pragmatic implications.

Expected value based fuzzy programming approach to solve integrated supplier selection and inventory control problem with fuzzy demand

Science.gov (United States)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Sunarsih; Kartono

2018-01-01

In this paper, a mathematical model in quadratic programming with fuzzy parameter is proposed to determine the optimal strategy for integrated inventory control and supplier selection problem with fuzzy demand. To solve the corresponding optimization problem, we use the expected value based fuzzy programming. Numerical examples are performed to evaluate the model. From the results, the optimal amount of each product that have to be purchased from each supplier for each time period and the optimal amount of each product that have to be stored in the inventory for each time period were determined with minimum total cost and the inventory level was sufficiently closed to the reference level.

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. OBJECTIVE: We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort...... study using single-decrement period life tables. SUBJECTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer...... and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency....

Expected Term Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

Highly selective gas sensor arrays based on thermally reduced graphene oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipatov, Alexey; Varezhnikov, Alexey; Wilson, Peter; Sysoev, Victor; Kolmakov, Andrei; Sinitskii, Alexander

2013-06-21

The electrical properties of reduced graphene oxide (rGO) have been previously shown to be very sensitive to surface adsorbates, thus making rGO a very promising platform for highly sensitive gas sensors. However, poor selectivity of rGO-based gas sensors remains a major problem for their practical use. In this paper, we address the selectivity problem by employing an array of rGO-based integrated sensors instead of focusing on the performance of a single sensing element. Each rGO-based device in such an array has a unique sensor response due to the irregular structure of rGO films at different levels of organization, ranging from nanoscale to macroscale. The resulting rGO-based gas sensing system could reliably recognize analytes of nearly the same chemical nature. In our experiments rGO-based sensor arrays demonstrated a high selectivity that was sufficient to discriminate between different alcohols, such as methanol, ethanol and isopropanol, at a 100% success rate. We also discuss a possible sensing mechanism that provides the basis for analyte differentiation.

Review of pump suction reducer selection: Eccentric or concentric reducers

OpenAIRE

Mahaffey, R M; van Vuuren, S J

2014-01-01

Eccentric reducers are traditionally recommended for the pump suction reducer fitting to allow for transportation of air through the fitting to the pump. The ability of a concentric reducer to provide an improved approach flow to the pump while still allowing air to be transported through the fitting is investigated. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) were utilised to analyse six concentric and six eccentric reducer geometries at four different inlet velocities to determine the flow velocity ...

The Prediction of the Expected Current Selection Coefficient of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Associated with Holstein Milk Yield, Fat and Protein Contents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Sup Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Milk-related traits (milk yield, fat and protein have been crucial to selection of Holstein. It is essential to find the current selection trends of Holstein. Despite this, uncovering the current trends of selection have been ignored in previous studies. We suggest a new formula to detect the current selection trends based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP. This suggestion is based on the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP and the Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection both of which are trait-dependent. Fisher’s theorem links the additive genetic variance to the selection coefficient. For Holstein milk production traits, we estimated the additive genetic variance using SNP effect from BLUP and selection coefficients based on genetic variance to search highly selective SNPs. Through these processes, we identified significantly selective SNPs. The number of genes containing highly selective SNPs with p-value <0.01 (nearly top 1% SNPs in all traits and p-value <0.001 (nearly top 0.1% in any traits was 14. They are phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B, serine/threonine kinase 40 (STK40, collagen, type XI, alpha 1 (COL11A1, ephrin-A1 (EFNA1, netrin 4 (NTN4, neuron specific gene family member 1 (NSG1, estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1, neurexin 3 (NRXN3, spectrin, beta, non-erythrocytic 1 (SPTBN1, ADP-ribosylation factor interacting protein 1 (ARFIP1, mutL homolog 1 (MLH1, transmembrane channel-like 7 (TMC7, carboxypeptidase X, member 2 (CPXM2 and ADAM metallopeptidase domain 12 (ADAM12. These genes may be important for future artificial selection trends. Also, we found that the SNP effect predicted from BLUP was the key factor to determine the expected current selection coefficient of SNP. Under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium of SNP markers in current generation, the selection coefficient is equivalent to 2*SNP effect.

Selective pruning in pineapple plants as means to reduce heterogeneity in fruit quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fassinou Hotegni, V.N.; Lommen, W.J.M.; Struik, P.C.; Agbossou, E.K.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneity in fruit quality (size and taste) is a major problem in pineapple production chains. The possibilities were investigated of reducing the heterogeneity in pineapple in the field by pruning slips on selected plants, in order to promote the fruit growth on these plants. Slips are side

A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

Search for Expectancy-Inconsistent Information Reduces Uncertainty Better: The Role of Cognitive Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Strojny, Paweł; Kossowska, Małgorzata; Strojny, Agnieszka

2016-01-01

Motivation and cognitive capacity are key factors in people's everyday struggle with uncertainty. However, the exact nature of their interplay in various contexts still needs to be revealed. The presented paper reports on two experimental studies which aimed to examine the joint consequences of motivational and cognitive factors for preferences regarding incomplete information expansion. In Study 1 we demonstrate the interactional effect of motivation and cognitive capacity on information preference. High need for closure resulted in a stronger relative preference for expectancy-inconsistent information among non-depleted individuals, but the opposite among cognitively depleted ones. This effect was explained by the different informative value of questions in comparison to affirmative sentences and the potential possibility of assimilation of new information if it contradicts prior knowledge. In Study 2 we further investigated the obtained effect, showing that not only questions but also other kinds of incomplete information are subject to the same dependency. Our results support the expectation that, in face of incomplete information, motivation toward closure may be fulfilled efficiently by focusing on expectancy-inconsistent pieces of data. We discuss the obtained effect in the context of previous assumptions that high need for closure results in a simple processing style, advocating a more complex approach based on the character of the provided information.

Reduced and selective integration techniques in the finite element analysis of plates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, T.J.R.; Cohen, M.; Haroun, M.

1978-01-01

Efforts to develop effective plate bending finite elements by reduced integration techniques are described. The basis for the development is a 'thick' plate theory in which transverse shear strains are accounted for. The variables in the theory are all kinematic, namely, displacements and independent rotations. As only C 0 continuity is required, isoparametric elements may be employed, which result in several advantages over thin plate elements. It is shown that the avoidance of shear 'locking' may be facilitated by reduced integration techniques. Both uniform and selective schemes are considered. Conditions under which selective schemes are invariant are identified, and they are found to have an advantage over uniform schemes in the present situation. It is pointed out that the present elements are not subject to the difficulties encountered by thin plate theory elements, concerning boundary conditions. For example, the polygonal approximation of curved, simply supported edges is convergent. Other topics discussed are the equivalence with mixed methods, rank deficiency, convergence criteria and useful mass 'lumping' schemes for dynamics. Numerical results for several thin plate problems indicate the high degree of accuracy attainable by the present elements. (Auth.)

Endovascular Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke Increases Disability-Free Survival, Quality of Life, and Life Expectancy and Reduces Cost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce C. V. Campbell

2017-12-01

Full Text Available BackgroundEndovascular thrombectomy improves functional outcome in large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke. We examined disability, quality of life, survival and acute care costs in the EXTEND-IA trial, which used CT-perfusion imaging selection.MethodsLarge vessel ischemic stroke patients with favorable CT-perfusion were randomized to endovascular thrombectomy after alteplase versus alteplase-only. Clinical outcome was prospectively measured using 90-day modified Rankin scale (mRS. Individual patient expected survival and net difference in Disability/Quality-adjusted life years (DALY/QALY up to 15 years from stroke were modeled using age, sex, 90-day mRS, and utility scores. Level of care within the first 90 days was prospectively measured and used to estimate procedure and inpatient care costs (US$ reference year 2014.ResultsThere were 70 patients, 35 in each arm, mean age 69, median NIHSS 15 (IQR 12–19. The median (IQR disability-weighted utility score at 90 days was 0.65 (0.00–0.91 in the alteplase-only versus 0.91 (0.65–1.00 in the endovascular group (p = 0.005. Modeled life expectancy was greater in the endovascular versus alteplase-only group (median 15.6 versus 11.2 years, p = 0.02. The endovascular thrombectomy group had fewer simulated DALYs lost over 15 years [median (IQR 5.5 (3.2–8.7 versus 8.9 (4.7–13.8, p = 0.02] and more QALY gained [median (IQR 9.3 (4.2–13.1 versus 4.9 (0.3–8.5, p = 0.03]. Endovascular patients spent less time in hospital [median (IQR 5 (3–11 days versus 8 (5–14 days, p = 0.04] and rehabilitation [median (IQR 0 (0–28 versus 27 (0–65 days, p = 0.03]. The estimated inpatient costs in the first 90 days were less in the thrombectomy group (average US$15,689 versus US$30,569, p = 0.008 offsetting the costs of interhospital transport and the thrombectomy procedure (average US$10,515. The average saving per patient treated with thrombectomy was US$4

Enhanced and selective ammonia sensing of reduced graphene oxide based chemo resistive sensor at room temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Ramesh; Kaur, Amarjeet

2016-05-01

The reduced graphene oxide thin films were fabricated by using the spin coating method. The reduced graphene oxide samples were characterised by Raman studies to obtain corresponding D and G bands at 1360 and 1590 cm-1 respectively. Fourier transform infra-red (FTIR) spectra consists of peak corresponds to sp2 hybridisation of carbon atoms at 1560 cm-1. The reduced graphene oxide based chemoresistive sensor exhibited a p-type semiconductor behaviour in ambient conditions and showed good sensitivity to different concentration of ammonia from 25 ppm to 500 ppm and excellent selectivity at room temperature. The sensor displays selectivity to several hazardous vapours such as methanol, ethanol, acetone and hydrazine hydrate. The sensor demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.8 at 25 ppm concentration of ammonia with response time of 163 seconds.

Educational Research with Real-World Data: Reducing Selection Bias with Propensity Scores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jill L. Adelson

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Often it is infeasible or unethical to use random assignment in educational settings to study important constructs and questions. Hence, educational research often uses observational data, such as large-scale secondary data sets and state and school district data, and quasi-experimental designs. One method of reducing selection bias in estimations of treatment effects is propensity score analysis. This method reduces a large number of pretreatment covariates to a single scalar function and allows researchers to compare subjects with similar probability to receive the treatment. This article provides an introduction to propensity score analysis and stratification, an example illustrating its use, and suggestions for using propensity score analysis in educational research.

Reduced genetic variance among high fitness individuals: inferring stabilizing selection on male sexual displays in Drosophila serrata.

Science.gov (United States)

Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L; Rundle, Howard D

2012-10-01

Directional selection is prevalent in nature, yet phenotypes tend to remain relatively constant, suggesting a limit to trait evolution. However, the genetic basis of this limit is unresolved. Given widespread pleiotropy, opposing selection on a trait may arise from the effects of the underlying alleles on other traits under selection, generating net stabilizing selection on trait genetic variance. These pleiotropic costs of trait exaggeration may arise through any number of other traits, making them hard to detect in phenotypic analyses. Stabilizing selection can be inferred, however, if genetic variance is greater among low- compared to high-fitness individuals. We extend a recently suggested approach to provide a direct test of a difference in genetic variance for a suite of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) in Drosophila serrata. Despite strong directional sexual selection on these traits, genetic variance differed between high- and low-fitness individuals and was greater among the low-fitness males for seven of eight CHCs, significantly more than expected by chance. Univariate tests of a difference in genetic variance were nonsignificant but likely have low power. Our results suggest that further CHC exaggeration in D. serrata in response to sexual selection is limited by pleiotropic costs mediated through other traits. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Spiking the expectancy profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

Price expectations and petroleum development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

1991-01-01

In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College

OpenAIRE

Andrew J. Hussey; Omari H. Swinton

2011-01-01

Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distributio...

Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Massaro, D.

2013-01-01

This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a

Enhanced and selective ammonia sensing of reduced graphene oxide based chemo resistive sensor at room temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Ramesh, E-mail: rameshphysicsdu@gmail.com; Kaur, Amarjeet, E-mail: amarkaur@physics.du.ac.in [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007 (India)

2016-05-06

The reduced graphene oxide thin films were fabricated by using the spin coating method. The reduced graphene oxide samples were characterised by Raman studies to obtain corresponding D and G bands at 1360 and 1590 cm{sup −1} respectively. Fourier transform infra-red (FTIR) spectra consists of peak corresponds to sp{sup 2} hybridisation of carbon atoms at 1560 cm{sup −1}. The reduced graphene oxide based chemoresistive sensor exhibited a p-type semiconductor behaviour in ambient conditions and showed good sensitivity to different concentration of ammonia from 25 ppm to 500 ppm and excellent selectivity at room temperature. The sensor displays selectivity to several hazardous vapours such as methanol, ethanol, acetone and hydrazine hydrate. The sensor demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.8 at 25 ppm concentration of ammonia with response time of 163 seconds.

Expectations of Scandinavian veterinarians and dog owners about effects of neutralisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kallehauge, M. Hegstad; Horn, C. Drost; Goericke-Pesch, S.

2018-01-01

for overweight (♂: DO: 86%, ♀: DO: 84%), for coat changes (♂: V: 84%, DO: 63%; ♀: V: 87%, DO: 65%), urinary incontinence (♀: V: 95%; DO: 36%) and hypothyroid-ism (♂: DO: 27%; ♀: DO: 28%). In conclusion, a certain discrepancy between participants’ expectations and the literature was identified with a tendency......-fects: reduced risk for mammary tumours (♀: V: 93%, DO: 63%) and pseudopregnancy in bitches (♀: DO: 57%), reduced risk for benign prostatic hyperplasia in male dogs (♂: V: 88%, DO: 42%), reduced aggression against other dogs (♂: V: 83%, DO: 60%), reduced urine marking (♂: V: 89%, DO: 61%), reduced tendency...... for hyperactivity (♂: V: 68%, DO: 51%), for roaming (♂: V: 87%, DO: 64%;♀: V: 64%, DO: 44%), for hypersexuality (♂: V: 95%, DO: 61%; ♀: V: 81%, DO: 40%) and increased life expectancy (♀: V: 45%). Expected negative effects of neutering were increased appetite (♂: V: 91%, DO: 76%; ♀: V: 90%, DO: 76%), increased risk...

PhD students’ expectations from their supervisors: A qualitative content analysis

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SH Rimaz

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Quality of research in PhD programs increases if supervisors become aware of students' expectations from them. This qualitative study aimed to explore expectations of PhD students from their supervisors was done.   Methods: This qualitative content analysis study was conducted on 22 graduated PhD students of Iran University of Medical Sciences, in 2014. The samples were purposefully selected and interviewed. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim.   Results: After analyzing and coding data, it was found that PhD students have four main expectations from their supervisors. These expectations consist of scientific support including help with selection of subject, preparation and registration of proposal, data collection and support for writing and examination of the thesis. Developing scientific skills and help with preparing manuscripts were other expectations. Emotional-social support with five categories including relationship between supervisor-student, general expectations of supervisor, supervisor personality characteristics, needed emotional skills and social activities related to thesis and finally providing adequate resources including financial support and access to facilities inside and outside the university were among the other expectations.   Conclusion: PhD students need to scientific, emotional, social and material supports from their supervisors in the process of performing thesis. These expectations should be told to supervisors.

Kindled seizures selectively reduce a subpopulation of [3H]quinuclidinyl benzilate binding sites in rat dentate gyrus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savage, D.D.; McNamara, J.O.

1982-01-01

Amygdala-kindled seizures reduced significantly the total number of [ 3 H]quinuclidinyl benzilate binding sites in both dentate and hippocampal gyri compared to electrode implanted unstimulated controls. Both high and low affinity carbachol displaceable binding site populations were significantly reduced in hippocampal gyrus. By contrast, a selective decline of low affinity sites was found in dentate gyrus membranes. The selectivity of the decline in dentate but not hippocampus gyrus underscores the specificity of this molecular response to amygdala-kindled seizures. We suggest that these receptor alterations underlie adaptive mechanisms which antagonize kindled epileptogenesis

Genomic selection of crossing partners on basis of the expected mean and variance of their derived lines.

Science.gov (United States)

Osthushenrich, Tanja; Frisch, Matthias; Herzog, Eva

2017-01-01

In a line or a hybrid breeding program superior lines are selected from a breeding pool as parental lines for the next breeding cycle. From a cross of two parental lines, new lines are derived by single-seed descent (SSD) or doubled haploid (DH) technology. However, not all possible crosses between the parental lines can be carried out due to limited resources. Our objectives were to present formulas to characterize a cross by the mean and variance of the genotypic values of the lines derived from the cross, and to apply the formulas to predict means and variances of flowering time traits in recombinant inbred line families of a publicly available data set in maize. We derived formulas which are based on the expected linkage disequilibrium (LD) between two loci and which can be used for arbitrary mating systems. Results were worked out for SSD and DH lines derived from a cross after an arbitrary number of intermating generations. The means and variances were highly correlated with results obtained by the simulation software PopVar. Compared with these simulations, computation time for our closed formulas was about ten times faster. The means and variances for flowering time traits observed in the recombinant inbred line families of the investigated data set showed correlations of around 0.9 for the means and of 0.46 and 0.65 for the standard deviations with the estimated values. We conclude that our results provide a framework that can be exploited to increase the efficiency of hybrid and line breeding programs by extending genomic selection approaches to the selection of crossing partners.

Genomic selection of crossing partners on basis of the expected mean and variance of their derived lines

Science.gov (United States)

Osthushenrich, Tanja; Frisch, Matthias

2017-01-01

In a line or a hybrid breeding program superior lines are selected from a breeding pool as parental lines for the next breeding cycle. From a cross of two parental lines, new lines are derived by single-seed descent (SSD) or doubled haploid (DH) technology. However, not all possible crosses between the parental lines can be carried out due to limited resources. Our objectives were to present formulas to characterize a cross by the mean and variance of the genotypic values of the lines derived from the cross, and to apply the formulas to predict means and variances of flowering time traits in recombinant inbred line families of a publicly available data set in maize. We derived formulas which are based on the expected linkage disequilibrium (LD) between two loci and which can be used for arbitrary mating systems. Results were worked out for SSD and DH lines derived from a cross after an arbitrary number of intermating generations. The means and variances were highly correlated with results obtained by the simulation software PopVar. Compared with these simulations, computation time for our closed formulas was about ten times faster. The means and variances for flowering time traits observed in the recombinant inbred line families of the investigated data set showed correlations of around 0.9 for the means and of 0.46 and 0.65 for the standard deviations with the estimated values. We conclude that our results provide a framework that can be exploited to increase the efficiency of hybrid and line breeding programs by extending genomic selection approaches to the selection of crossing partners. PMID:29200436

E-cigarettes and expectancies: why do some users keep smoking?

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Harrell, Paul T; Simmons, Vani N; Piñeiro, Barbara; Correa, John B; Menzie, Nicole S; Meltzer, Lauren R; Unrod, Marina; Brandon, Thomas H

2015-11-01

Many smokers who have tried electronic cigarettes ('e-cigarettes') continue to smoke, perhaps influenced by their beliefs about the outcomes of using e-cigarettes ('e-cigarette expectancies'). The primary aims of this study were to compare expectancies of dual users to former smokers, and to examine the association between expectancies and intentions to quit or reduce 'vaping' among former smokers. A large cross-sectional online survey of e-cigarette users conducted in the United States. We surveyed current e-cigarette users (n = 1815), including both current cigarette smokers ('dual users', n = 381) and former smokers (n = 1434). We further subdivided former smokers into those with (n = 686) and without (n = 748) intentions to reduce or quit e-cigarette use. The primary outcomes were self-reported past-month smoking status and, among former smokers, current intentions to reduce or quit e-cigarette use, both adjusted for potential confounders. E-cigarette expectancy items were derived primarily from a previously validated measure of smoking expectancies. Dual users reported less positive expectancies than former smokers about e-cigarettes, rating e-cigarettes as more physically irritating (β = 0.10, P addictive (β = 0.06, P = 0.016), as well as less satisfying (β = -0.11, P addiction (β = 0.10, P e-cigarette expectancies among e-cigarette users are associated with a greater likelihood of having quit smoking, but lower likelihood of intention to quit e-cigarette use. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Comparing geological and statistical approaches for element selection in sediment tracing research

Science.gov (United States)

Laceby, J. Patrick; McMahon, Joe; Evrard, Olivier; Olley, Jon

2015-04-01

Elevated suspended sediment loads reduce reservoir capacity and significantly increase the cost of operating water treatment infrastructure, making the management of sediment supply to reservoirs of increasingly importance. Sediment fingerprinting techniques can be used to determine the relative contributions of different sources of sediment accumulating in reservoirs. The objective of this research is to compare geological and statistical approaches to element selection for sediment fingerprinting modelling. Time-integrated samplers (n=45) were used to obtain source samples from four major subcatchments flowing into the Baroon Pocket Dam in South East Queensland, Australia. The geochemistry of potential sources were compared to the geochemistry of sediment cores (n=12) sampled in the reservoir. The geochemical approach selected elements for modelling that provided expected, observed and statistical discrimination between sediment sources. Two statistical approaches selected elements for modelling with the Kruskal-Wallis H-test and Discriminatory Function Analysis (DFA). In particular, two different significance levels (0.05 & 0.35) for the DFA were included to investigate the importance of element selection on modelling results. A distribution model determined the relative contributions of different sources to sediment sampled in the Baroon Pocket Dam. Elemental discrimination was expected between one subcatchment (Obi Obi Creek) and the remaining subcatchments (Lexys, Falls and Bridge Creek). Six major elements were expected to provide discrimination. Of these six, only Fe2O3 and SiO2 provided expected, observed and statistical discrimination. Modelling results with this geological approach indicated 36% (+/- 9%) of sediment sampled in the reservoir cores were from mafic-derived sources and 64% (+/- 9%) were from felsic-derived sources. The geological and the first statistical approach (DFA0.05) differed by only 1% (σ 5%) for 5 out of 6 model groupings with only

Optimal Joint Expected Delay Forwarding in Delay Tolerant Networks

OpenAIRE

Jia Xu; Xin Feng; Wen Jun Yang; Ru Chuan Wang; Bing Qing Han

2013-01-01

Multicopy forwarding schemes have been employed in delay tolerant network (DTN) to improve the delivery delay and delivery rate. Much effort has been focused on reducing the routing cost while retaining high performance. This paper aims to provide an optimal joint expected delay forwarding (OJEDF) protocol which minimizes the expected delay while satisfying a certain constant on the number of forwardings per message. We propose a comprehensive forwarding metric called joint expected delay (JE...

The hearing. Expectations and communication. Two selected examples are given

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisenhardt, G.

1980-01-01

The results of the hearings concerning Wyhl and Biblis C show that the basic tendencies can also be found in the analysis of the formal licensing procedure within the ATVfV - Atomrechtliche Verfahrensordnung (an order of the Atomic Energy Law concerning the licensing procedure). The corresponding explanations are formulated in an understandable manner; thus disputes about function and procedure of the hearing are theoretically not to be expected. In practice, however, it is obvious that disputes about the usefulness and purpose of the procedure itself continue to remain the topic of violent controversies during the hearing. (DG) [de

Prediction error variance and expected response to selection, when selection is based on the best predictor – for Gaussian and threshold characters, traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jensen Just

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects. In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas.

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

Phenotypic selection in natural populations: what limits directional selection?

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsolver, Joel G; Diamond, Sarah E

2011-03-01

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.

A comparison of Reduced Life Expectancy (RLE) model with Haber's Rule to describe effects of exposure time on toxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, Vibha; Yu, Qiming J.; Connell, Des W.

2015-01-01

The Reduced Life Expectancy (RLE) Model (LC 50  = [ln(NLE) – ln(LT 50 )]/d) has been proposed as an alternative to Haber's Rule. The model is based on a linear relationship between LC 50 (Lethal Exposure Concentration) and lnLT 50 (Lethal Exposure Time) and uses NLE (Normal Life Expectancy) as a limiting point as well as a long term data point (where d is a constant). The purposes of this paper were to compare the RLE Model with Haber's Rule with available toxicity data and to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. When LT 50 is relatively short and LC 50 is high, Haber's Rule is consistent with the RLE model. But the difference between the two was evident in the situation when LT 50 is relatively long and LC 50 is low where the RLE model is a marked departure from Haber's Rule. The RLE Model can be used to appropriately evaluate long term effects of exposure. - Highlights: • The strength and weakness of Haber's Rule in relation to the RLE model is needed. • Haber's Rule now used universally is quite inappropriate for environmental toxicity. • Normal life expectancy, a new parameter l is used to evaluate effects of exposure time on toxicity. • According to RLE model when LC 50 approaches zero, then LT 50  = Normal Life Expectancy. • The RLE model can be used to evaluate long term effects of exposure-accurately and easily. - The RLE approach is a more appropriate alternative particularly to evaluate long term effects of exposure. It can be easily used to estimate long term effects of exposure

Reducing cardiovascular risk factors in non-selected outpatients with schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Mette Vinther; Hjorth, Peter; Kristiansen, Christina Blanner; Vandborg, Kirsten; Gustafsson, Lea Nørgaard; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl

2016-06-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the most common causes of premature death in patients with schizophrenia. We aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk factors in non-selected outpatients with schizophrenia using methods proven effective in short-term trials. Furthermore, we examined whether any baseline characteristics were associated with positive outcomes. All outpatients treated for schizophrenia at two Danish hospitals were included in this 1-year follow-up study. The patients were offered health interventions both individually and in groups. Weight, waist circumference, blood glucose, serum lipids, and information on smoking and alcohol were obtained. On average, small significant increases in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumferences were observed while small non-significant improvements in other cardiovascular risk factors were seen. Patients with high baseline BMI and patients with duration of treated illness beyond 2 years had significantly better intervention outcomes. Our results show that it was difficult to improve physical health in a group of non-selected patients with schizophrenia as part of routine care. The patients were not easily motivated to participate in the interventions, and it was difficult to monitor the recommended metabolic risk measures in the patient group. Future research should focus on simple strategies in health promotion that can be integrated into routine care. © The Author(s) 2016.

Kindled seizures selectively reduce a subpopulation of (/sup 3/H)quinuclidinyl benzilate binding sites in rat dentate gyrus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savage, D.D.; McNamara, J.O.

1982-09-01

Amygdala-kindled seizures reduced significantly the total number of (/sup 3/H)quinuclidinyl benzilate binding sites in both dentate and hippocampal gyri compared to electrode implanted unstimulated controls. Both high and low affinity carbachol displaceable binding site populations were significantly reduced in hippocampal gyrus. By contrast, a selective decline of low affinity sites was found in dentate gyrus membranes. The selectivity of the decline in dentate but not hippocampus gyrus underscores the specificity of this molecular response to amygdala-kindled seizures. We suggest that these receptor alterations underlie adaptive mechanisms which antagonize kindled epileptogenesis.

Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristine Husøy Onarheim

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011-2015. We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011-2015. Interventions are scaled-up to 1 government target levels, 2 90% coverage and 3 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini(health substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19. CONCLUSIONS: The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini(health.

Eumorphic Plastic Surgery: Expectation Versus Satisfaction in Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Morselli, Paolo Giovanni; Micai, Alessandro; Boriani, Filippo

2016-08-01

Eumorphic Plastic Surgery aims at improving the severe psychosocial pain caused by a deformity. Dysmorphopathology is an increasingly relevant problem facing the plastic surgeon. The aim of this study is to describe the perioperative questionnaires created by the senior author and to present a cohort of plastic surgery patients suffering from dysmorphopathies. These patients were prospectively followed and evaluated with the proposed questionnaires through their surgical pathway to explore the degree of satisfaction or disappointment compared to expectations. All candidates for plastic surgery procedures between April 2011 and June 2013 were included in the study. Preoperatively, all patients completed the Patient Expectation Questionnaire (E-pgm). Twelve months postoperatively, they completed the Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (S-pgm). The E-pgm and S-pgm were compared to evaluate the consistency between the patient's preoperative expectations and postoperative evaluations. A total of 158 patients were included in the study. Out of them, 79 % experienced an improvement or no variation between preoperative expectations and postoperative satisfaction. With regard to the motivation for undergoing surgery, 91 % showed that the surgical procedure met the motivation. An overall positive perioperative change in life was experienced by 93 % of patients. The E-pgm questionnaire proved to be a valid and reliable tool for the selection of suitable candidates for surgery and for identification of dysmorphophobic patients. Enhancing the doctor-patient relationship and communication can reduce ambiguity and avoid troublesome misunderstandings, litigation and other legal implications. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

2015-01-01

Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

Do placebo expectations influence perceived exertion during physical exercise?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Mothes

Full Text Available This study investigates the role of placebo expectations in individuals' perception of exertion during acute physical exercise. Building upon findings from placebo and marketing research, we examined how perceived exertion is affected by expectations regarding a the effects of exercise and b the effects of the exercise product worn during the exercise. We also investigated whether these effects are moderated by physical self-concept. Seventy-eight participants conducted a moderate 30 min cycling exercise on an ergometer, with perceived exertion (RPE measured every 5 minutes. Beforehand, each participant was randomly assigned to 1 of 4 conditions and watched a corresponding film clip presenting "scientific evidence" that the exercise would or would not result in health benefits and that the exercise product they were wearing (compression garment would additionally enhance exercise benefits or would only be worn for control purposes. Participants' physical self-concept was assessed via questionnaire. Results partially demonstrated that participants with more positive expectations experienced reduced perceived exertion during the exercise. Furthermore, our results indicate a moderator effect of physical self-concept: Individuals with a high physical self-concept benefited (in terms of reduced perceived exertion levels in particular from an induction of generally positive expectations. In contrast, individuals with a low physical self-concept benefited when positive expectations were related to the exercise product they were wearing. In sum, these results suggest that placebo expectations may be a further, previously neglected class of psychological factors that influence the perception of exertion.

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine; Leff, Bruce; Anderson, Gerard F

2014-08-01

The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.

A cross-cultural comparison between Canada and Germany of symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Lang, Christoph

2005-02-01

Symptom expectation for whiplash injury has been shown to be low in countries with low rates of chronic whiplash when compared with countries like Canada, where chronic whiplash is common. The objective of the current study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected "whiplash" symptoms in Germany with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to two subject groups selected from local companies in Germany and Canada. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both groups, the pattern of acute symptoms anticipated closely resembled the symptoms of acute whiplash victims, but 50% of Canadians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, whereas few German subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Germany, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. The current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Germany may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

Development and validation of the alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire Short Form (EQ-SF).

Science.gov (United States)

Mezquita, Laura; Camacho, Laura; Suso-Ribera, Carlos; Ortet, Generós; Ibáñez, Manuel I

2018-01-15

Alcohol expectancies are proximal variables to alcohol use and misuse. In recent decades, different measures have been developed to assess this construct. One of the most frequently used and recommended instruments is the Expectancy Questionnaire (EQ; Leigh y Stacy, 1993). Our aim is to develop a short version of the EQ (EQ-SF) for suitable use in time-limited administrations. Two samples, adolescents (N = 514, 57.20% females) and adults (N = 548, 61.50% females), completed the EQ together with alcohol-use measures. Different item selection strategies were applied to select the 24 items. The EQ-SF structure was explored using confirmatory factor analysis, and measurement invariance was tested running a multi-group analysis comparing groups by sex and age. Reliability was tested using Cronbach's alpha and omega coefficients. Concurrent validity was investigated with regression analyses. The EQ-SF showed acceptable between-groups measurement invariance. Alphas and omegas ranged from .77 to .93. Positive expectancies predicted both alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Negative expectancies predicted alcohol-related problems. Sex and age moderated these associations. Males with high positive alcohol expectancies showed higher alcohol consumption than females, while adults with high negative alcohol expectancies showed greater alcohol-related problems than adolescents. Different evidence on the validity and reliability of the EQ-SF suggest that it is a suitable instrument to assess alcohol expectancies in the Spanish population.

Expectation requires treatment to boost pain relief: an fMRI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Geuter, Stephan; Büchel, Christian

2014-01-01

We investigated the effect of a possible interaction between topical analgesic treatment and treatment expectation on pain at the behavioral and neuronal level by combining topical lidocaine/prilocaine treatment with an expectancy manipulation in a 2 by 2 within-subject design (open treatment, hidden treatment, placebo, control). Thirty-two healthy subjects received heat pain stimuli on capsaicin-pretreated skin and rated their experienced pain during functional magnetic resonance imaging. This allowed us to separate drug- and expectancy-related effects at the behavioral and neuronal levels and to test whether they interact during the processing of painful stimuli. Pain ratings were reduced during active treatment and were associated with reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex. Pain ratings were lower in open treatment compared with hidden treatment and were related to reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the secondary somatosensory cortex, and the thalamus. Testing for an interaction revealed that the expectation effect was significantly larger in the active treatment conditions compared with the no-treatment conditions and was associated with signal changes in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the ventral striatum. In conclusion, this study shows that even in the case of a topical analgesic, expectation interacts with treatment at the level of pain ratings and neuronal responses in placebo-related brain regions. Our results are highly relevant in the clinical context as they show (i) that expectation can boost treatment and (ii) that expectation and treatment are not necessarily additive as assumed in placebo-controlled clinical trials. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patients' expectations of osteopathic care: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Vinette; Leach, C M Janine; Fawkes, Carol A; Moore, Ann P

2015-10-01

Research has shown that patients' expectations of health care and health-care practitioners are complex and may have a significant impact on outcomes of care. Little is known about the expectations of osteopathic patients. To explore osteopathic patients' expectations of private sector care. Focus groups and individual interviews with purposively selected patients; this was the qualitative phase of a mixed methods study, the final phase being a patient survey. A total of 34 adult patients currently attending for treatment at private osteopathic practices across the United Kingdom. Focus group discussions and individual interviews around expectations before, during and after osteopathic care. Thematic analysis of text data to identify topics raised by patients and to group these into broad themes. Many components of expectation were identified. A preliminary conceptual framework describing the way the therapeutic encounter is approached in osteopathy comprised five themes: individual agency, professional expertise, customer experience, therapeutic process and interpersonal relationship. The components of expectation identified in this phase of the study provided potential question topics for the survey questionnaire in the subsequent phase of the investigation. The model developed in this study may add a new perspective to existing evidence on expectations. Further research is recommended to test the findings both within private practice and the National Health Service. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A review of expectancy theory and alcohol consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, B T; Corbin, W; Fromme, K

2001-01-01

Research is reviewed on the association between alcohol outcome expectancies and consumption which has led many to argue that manipulating expectancies might be a route to manipulating consumption for problem prevention and treatment. Studies indirectly and directly evaluating this latter position are reviewed. Expectancies predicting treatment outcome: two studies have shown that the more positive expectancies held at treatment, the poorer is treatment outcome, but five other studies have failed to find this. Three related studies have shown that the more negative expectancies held at treatment, the better the treatment outcome. This evaluation provides evidence inconsistent with the main position for positive expectancy and limited support for negative. Expectancy manipulations and ad libitum consumption: three studies in the laboratory have shown that increasing positive expectancies through word priming increases subsequent consumption and two studies have shown that increasing negative expectancies decreases it. A single study in the field showed a similar relationship. This evaluation provides evidence consistent with the main position but is limited by measuring consumption changes over only 1-2 hours. Prevention programmes with expectancy components: seven projects are reviewed in which positive expectancies were targeted, but only two report an expectancy change analysis and in both cases the expectancy change did not relate to subsequent consumption. This evaluation provides evidence inconsistent with the main position. Expectancy challenge: two related studies are reviewed in which positive expectancy challenges reduce subsequent consumption but changes in expectancy were not evaluated as predictors of consumption change. Two studies are reviewed which found a reduction in positive expectancy following expectancy challenge but no reduction in consumption. One study is reviewed in which when negative expectancy was increased in treatment there was a

WITHDRAWN: Active versus expectant management in the third stage of labour.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Prendiville, Walter J P

2012-02-01

BACKGROUND: Expectant management of the third stage of labour involves allowing the placenta to deliver spontaneously or aiding by gravity or nipple stimulation. Active management involves administration of a prophylactic oxytocic before delivery of the placenta, and usually early cord clamping and cutting, and controlled cord traction of the umbilical cord. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effects of active versus expectant management on blood loss, post partum haemorrhage and other maternal and perinatal complications of the third stage of labour. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised trials comparing active and expectant management of the third stage of labour in women who were expecting a vaginal delivery. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Trial quality was assessed and data were extracted independently by the reviewers. MAIN RESULTS: Five studies were included. Four of the trials were of good quality. Compared to expectant management, active management (in the setting of a maternity hospital) was associated with the following reduced risks: maternal blood loss (weighted mean difference -79.33 millilitres, 95% confidence interval -94.29 to -64.37); post partum haemorrhage of more than 500 millilitres (relative risk 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.46); prolonged third stage of labour (weighted mean difference -9.77 minutes, 95% confidence interval -10.00 to -9.53). Active management was associated with an increased risk of maternal nausea (relative risk 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.51 to 2.23), vomiting and raised blood pressure (probably due to the use of ergometrine). No advantages or disadvantages were apparent for the baby. AUTHORS\\' CONCLUSIONS: Routine \\'active management\\' is superior to \\'expectant management\\' in terms of blood loss, post partum haemorrhage and other serious complications of the third stage of labour. Active

Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

1999-01-01

This paper considers the testing of restrictions implied by rational expectations hypotheses in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model for I(1) variables. If the rational expectations involve one-step-ahead observations only and the coefficients are known, an explicit parameterization...... of the restrictions is found, and the maximum-likelihood estimator is derived by regression and reduced rank regression. An application is given to a present value model....

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2013-01-01

as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

Seeing through rose-colored glasses: How optimistic expectancies guide visual attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kress, Laura; Bristle, Mirko; Aue, Tatjana

2018-01-01

Optimism bias and positive attention bias have important highly similar implications for mental health but have only been examined in isolation. Investigating the causal relationships between these biases can improve the understanding of their underlying cognitive mechanisms, leading to new directions in neurocognitive research and revealing important information about normal functioning as well as the development, maintenance, and treatment of psychological diseases. In the current project, we hypothesized that optimistic expectancies can exert causal influences on attention deployment. To test this causal relation, we conducted two experiments in which we manipulated optimistic and pessimistic expectancies regarding future rewards and punishments. In a subsequent visual search task, we examined participants' attention to positive (i.e., rewarding) and negative (i.e., punishing) target stimuli, measuring their eye gaze behavior and reaction times. In both experiments, participants' attention was guided toward reward compared with punishment when optimistic expectancies were induced. Additionally, in Experiment 2, participants' attention was guided toward punishment compared with reward when pessimistic expectancies were induced. However, the effect of optimistic (rather than pessimistic) expectancies on attention deployment was stronger. A key characteristic of optimism bias is that people selectively update expectancies in an optimistic direction, not in a pessimistic direction, when receiving feedback. As revealed in our studies, selective attention to rewarding versus punishing evidence when people are optimistic might explain this updating asymmetry. Thus, the current data can help clarify why optimistic expectancies are difficult to overcome. Our findings elucidate the cognitive mechanisms underlying optimism and attention bias, which can yield a better understanding of their benefits for mental health.

Instruments used in the assessment of expectation toward a spine surgery: an integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eliane Nepomuceno

Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE To identify and describe the instruments used to assess patients' expectations toward spine surgery. METHOD An integrative review was carried out in the databases PubMed, CINAHL, LILACS and PsycINFO. RESULTS A total of 4,402 publications were identified, of which 25 met the selection criteria. Of the studies selected, only three used tools that had confirmed validity and reliability to be applied; in five studies, clinical scores were used, and were modified for the assessment of patients' expectations, and in 17 studies the researchers developed scales without an adequate description of the method used for their development and validation. CONCLUSION The assessment of patients' expectations has been methodologically conducted in different ways. Until the completion of this integrative review, only two valid and reliable instruments had been used in three of the selected studies.

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Development and Validation of the EXPECT Questionnaire: Assessing Patient Expectations of Outcomes of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Treatments for Chronic Pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Salene M W; Lange, Jane; Turner, Judith; Cherkin, Dan; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Hsu, Clarissa; Berthoud, Heidi; Sherman, Karen

2016-11-01

Patient expectations may be associated with outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) treatments for chronic pain. However, a psychometrically sound measure of such expectations is needed. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a questionnaire to assess individuals' expectations regarding outcomes of CAM treatments for chronic low back pain (CLBP), as well as a short form of the questionnaire. An 18-item draft questionnaire was developed through literature review, cognitive interviews with individuals with CLBP, CAM practitioners, and expert consultation. Two samples completed the questionnaire: (1) a community sample (n = 141) completed it via an online survey before or soon after starting a CAM treatment for CLBP, and (2) participants (n = 181) in randomized clinical trials evaluating CAM treatments for CLBP or fibromyalgia completed it prior to or shortly after starting treatment. Factor structure, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and criterion validity were examined. Based on factor analyses, 10 items reflecting expectations (used to create a total score) and three items reflecting hopes (not scored) were selected for the questionnaire. The questionnaire had high internal consistency, moderate test-retest reliability, and moderate correlations with other measures of expectations. A three-item short form also had adequate reliability and validity. The Expectations for Complementary and Alternative Medicine Treatments (EXPECT) questionnaire can be used in research to assess individuals' expectations of treatments for chronic pain. It is recommended that the three hope questions are included (but not scored) to help respondents distinguish between hopes and expectations. The short form may be appropriate for clinical settings and when expectation measurement is not a primary focus.

Impact of selected risk factors on expected lifetime without long-standing, limiting illness in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

2007-01-01

long-standing, limiting illness was 8-10 years shorter among sedentary than physically active people. Obesity shortened lifetime without illness by 5 years for men and ten years for women. CONCLUSION: The results of this study could be used in health policy-making, as the potential gains in public......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impacts of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and overweight on expected lifetime with and without long-standing, limiting illness. METHODS: Life tables for each level of exposure to the risk factors were constructed, mainly on the basis......-olds was 9-10 years shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke, and all the lifetime lost would have been without long-standing, limiting illness. Similarly, all 5 years of expected lifetime lost by men with high alcohol consumption would have been without illness. The expected lifetime without...

Perceptual grouping effects on cursor movement expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorneich, Michael C; Hamblin, Christopher J; Lancaster, Jeff A; Olofinboba, Olu

2014-05-01

Two studies were conducted to develop an understanding of factors that drive user expectations when navigating between discrete elements on a display via a limited degree-of-freedom cursor control device. For the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle spacecraft, a free-floating cursor with a graphical user interface (GUI) would require an unachievable level of accuracy due to expected acceleration and vibration conditions during dynamic phases of flight. Therefore, Orion program proposed using a "caged" cursor to "jump" from one controllable element (node) on the GUI to another. However, nodes are not likely to be arranged on a rectilinear grid, and so movements between nodes are not obvious. Proximity between nodes, direction of nodes relative to each other, and context features may all contribute to user cursor movement expectations. In an initial study, we examined user expectations based on the nodes themselves. In a second study, we examined the effect of context features on user expectations. The studies established that perceptual grouping effects influence expectations to varying degrees. Based on these results, a simple rule set was developed to support users in building a straightforward mental model that closely matches their natural expectations for cursor movement. The results will help designers of display formats take advantage of the natural context-driven cursor movement expectations of users to reduce navigation errors, increase usability, and decrease access time. The rules set and guidelines tie theory to practice and can be applied in environments where vibration or acceleration are significant, including spacecraft, aircraft, and automobiles.

Understanding the contribution of suicide to life expectancy in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aggie Noah

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: South Korea has the highest rate and highest rate of increase in suicide among developed countries. The suicide epidemic in Korea is an anomaly, and suicide rates are high for both men and women, with no signs of decreasing. Yet we do not know the extent to which suicide has reduced life expectancy in Korea. Objective: We investigated whether and to what extent the rapid increase in suicide has contributed to changes in Korean life expectancy, a key indicator of population health. Methods: We used a recently developed decomposition method that separates the contribution of suicide's effect on change in life expectancy into two parts: that due to change in the overall suicide incidence rate and that due to change in the mean age of suicide victims. Results: From 1995 to 2010, life expectancy increased by 6.5 years in Korea, with change in most causes of death contributing to its growth. We nonetheless find, as expected, that the rise in suicides reduced the increase in life expectancy from 1995 to 2010, so life expectancy in Korea is about 0.21 years lower than it would have been without the increase in suicides. Moreover, had the age of suicide victims remained stable, we project that Korea's life expectancy would be fully 0.70 years lower than it is. Conclusions: Although the growth in suicide was the largest single factor slowing the rise in Korean life expectancy, the effect would have been even larger had the age of suicide victims not increased.

The Combined Effects of Alcohol, Caffeine and Expectancies on Subjective Experience, Impulsivity and Risk-Taking

Science.gov (United States)

Heinz, Adrienne J.; de Wit, Harriet; Lilje, Todd C.; Kassel, Jon D.

2013-01-01

Caffeinated alcoholic beverage (CAB) consumption is a rapidly growing phenomenon among young adults and is associated with a variety of health-risk behaviors. The current study examined whether either caffeinated alcohol or the expectation of receiving caffeinated alcohol altered affective, cognitive and behavioral outcomes hypothesized to contribute to risk behavior. Young adult social drinkers (N=146) participated in a single session where they received alcohol (peak Breath Alcohol Content = .088 g/dL, SD = .019; equivalent to about 4 standard drinks) and were randomly assigned to one of four further conditions 1) no caffeine, no caffeine expectancy, 2) caffeine and caffeine expectancy, 3) no caffeine but caffeine expectancy, 4) caffeine but no caffeine expectancy. Participants’ habitual CAB consumption was positively correlated with measures of impulsivity and risky behavior, independently of study drugs. Administration of caffeine (mean dose = 220 mg, SD = 38; equivalent to about 2.75 Red Bulls) in the study reduced subjective ratings of intoxication and reversed the decrease in desire to continue drinking, regardless of expectancy. Caffeine also reduced the effect of alcohol on inhibitory reaction time (faster incorrect responses). Participants not expecting caffeine were less attentive after alcohol, whereas participants expecting caffeine were not, regardless of caffeine administration. Alcohol decreased response accuracy in all participants except those who both expected and received caffeine. Findings suggest that CABs may elevate risk for continued drinking by reducing perceived intoxication, and by maintaining the desire to continue drinking. Simply expecting to consume caffeine may reduce the effects of alcohol on inattention, and either expecting or consuming caffeine may protect against other alcohol-related performance decrements. Caffeine, when combined with alcohol, has both beneficial and detrimental effects on mechanisms known to contribute to

Seeing through rose-colored glasses: How optimistic expectancies guide visual attention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Kress

Full Text Available Optimism bias and positive attention bias have important highly similar implications for mental health but have only been examined in isolation. Investigating the causal relationships between these biases can improve the understanding of their underlying cognitive mechanisms, leading to new directions in neurocognitive research and revealing important information about normal functioning as well as the development, maintenance, and treatment of psychological diseases. In the current project, we hypothesized that optimistic expectancies can exert causal influences on attention deployment. To test this causal relation, we conducted two experiments in which we manipulated optimistic and pessimistic expectancies regarding future rewards and punishments. In a subsequent visual search task, we examined participants' attention to positive (i.e., rewarding and negative (i.e., punishing target stimuli, measuring their eye gaze behavior and reaction times. In both experiments, participants' attention was guided toward reward compared with punishment when optimistic expectancies were induced. Additionally, in Experiment 2, participants' attention was guided toward punishment compared with reward when pessimistic expectancies were induced. However, the effect of optimistic (rather than pessimistic expectancies on attention deployment was stronger. A key characteristic of optimism bias is that people selectively update expectancies in an optimistic direction, not in a pessimistic direction, when receiving feedback. As revealed in our studies, selective attention to rewarding versus punishing evidence when people are optimistic might explain this updating asymmetry. Thus, the current data can help clarify why optimistic expectancies are difficult to overcome. Our findings elucidate the cognitive mechanisms underlying optimism and attention bias, which can yield a better understanding of their benefits for mental health.

Simulation of selected genealogies.

Science.gov (United States)

Slade, P F

2000-02-01

Algorithms for generating genealogies with selection conditional on the sample configuration of n genes in one-locus, two-allele haploid and diploid models are presented. Enhanced integro-recursions using the ancestral selection graph, introduced by S. M. Krone and C. Neuhauser (1997, Theor. Popul. Biol. 51, 210-237), which is the non-neutral analogue of the coalescent, enables accessible simulation of the embedded genealogy. A Monte Carlo simulation scheme based on that of R. C. Griffiths and S. Tavaré (1996, Math. Comput. Modelling 23, 141-158), is adopted to consider the estimation of ancestral times under selection. Simulations show that selection alters the expected depth of the conditional ancestral trees, depending on a mutation-selection balance. As a consequence, branch lengths are shown to be an ineffective criterion for detecting the presence of selection. Several examples are given which quantify the effects of selection on the conditional expected time to the most recent common ancestor. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Forest canopy damage and recovery in reduced-impact and conventional selective logging in eastern Para, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigo Pereira Jr.; Johan Zweedea; Gregory P. Asnerb; Keller; Michael

2002-01-01

We investigated ground and canopy damage and recovery following conventional logging and reduced-impact logging (RIL) of moist tropical forest in the eastern Amazon of Brazil. Paired conventional and RIL blocks were selectively logged with a harvest intensity of approximately 23 m3 ha

A novel reduced-complexity group detection structure in MIMO frequency selective fading channels

KAUST Repository

Qaraqe, Khalid A.; Ahimian, Nariman R.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2010-01-01

In this paper a novel reduced complexity detection method named modified symbol flipping method is introduced and its advantages on reducing the burden of the calculations at the receiver compared to the optimum maximum likelihood detection method on multiple input- multiple output frequency selective fading channels are explained. The initial concept of the symbol flipping method is derived from a preliminary detection scheme named bit flipping which was introduced in [1]. The detection structure employed in this paper is ing, detection, and cancellation. On the detection stage, the proposed method is employed and the results are compared to the group maximum likelihood detection scheme proposed in [2]. Simulation results show that a 6 dB performance gain can be achieved at the expense of a slight increase in complexity in comparison with the conventional symbol flipping scheme. © 2010 Crown.

A novel reduced-complexity group detection structure in MIMO frequency selective fading channels

KAUST Repository

Qaraqe, Khalid A.

2010-09-01

In this paper a novel reduced complexity detection method named modified symbol flipping method is introduced and its advantages on reducing the burden of the calculations at the receiver compared to the optimum maximum likelihood detection method on multiple input- multiple output frequency selective fading channels are explained. The initial concept of the symbol flipping method is derived from a preliminary detection scheme named bit flipping which was introduced in [1]. The detection structure employed in this paper is ing, detection, and cancellation. On the detection stage, the proposed method is employed and the results are compared to the group maximum likelihood detection scheme proposed in [2]. Simulation results show that a 6 dB performance gain can be achieved at the expense of a slight increase in complexity in comparison with the conventional symbol flipping scheme. © 2010 Crown.

The Cannabis Expectancy Questionnaire for Men who have Sex with Men (CEQ-MSM): A measure of substance-related beliefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullens, A B; Young, R McD; Dunne, M; Norton, G

2010-06-01

Substance-related expectancies are associated with substance use and post-substance use thoughts, feelings and behaviours. The expectancies held by specific cultural or sub-cultural groups have rarely been investigated. This research maps expectancies specific to gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and their relationship with substance patterns and behaviours following use, including sexual practices (e.g., unprotected anal intercourse). This study describes the development of a measure of such beliefs for cannabis, the Cannabis Expectancy Questionnaire for Men who have Sex with Men (CEQ-MSM). Items selected through a focus group and interviews were piloted on 180 self-identified gay or other MSM via an online questionnaire. Factor analysis revealed six distinct substance reinforcement domains ("Enhanced sexual experience", "Sexual negotiation", "Cognitive impairment", "Social and emotional facilitation", "Enhanced sexual desire", and "Sexual inhibition"). The scale was associated with consumption patterns of cannabis, and in a crucial test of discriminant validity not with the consumption of alcohol or stimulants. The CEQ-MSM represents a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectancies, related to cannabis among MSM. Future applications of the CEQ-MSM in health promotion, clinical settings and research may contribute to reducing harm associated with substance use among MSM, including HIV transmission. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

2011-01-01

Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

Sport Management Internships: Agency Perspectives, Expectations, and Concerns

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Jo

2004-01-01

Should we hire a sport management intern in our organization or department? What role will the intern play? How will we benefit? What can we expect from sport management interns in terms of preparation and commitment? How easy is it to find, select, and work with an appropriately prepared intern? Professionals ask all of these questions when they…

Reducing pesticide level in wine by selective filtration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lempereur Valérie

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Wine Pesticide residues, even when below grape regulatory limit, are a concern for consumers and have an impact on the export potential of wine in certain markets. A consortium of European SMEs (www.adfimax.com has developed a product that reduces the level of mycotoxins and pesticides in wine while keeping all other wine parameter identical. The product is derived from renewable vegetable fiber. The production process includes both activation and micronisation. The usage recommendation is to substitute only the pre-coat, typically perlite, by the product at 1 or 1.5 kg⋅m−2 without changing the other layer (body feed typically kieselguhr. This paper describes the results of numerous industrial trials that were performed in France, Luxemburg, Germany and Spain. The impact of the product on the wine oenological characteristics was evaluated for different wine (white, red and rosé in different countries and for different grape variety (including Cabernet sauvignon, Merlot and Gamay. Results showed a reduction of the test wine pesticide level of 50% to 60% for all pesticides compared to the blank. Level of pesticide analyzed in the cake where extremely high at a level of a 1,000 times greater than the filtered wine showing the ability of the product to selectively capture the pesticides molecules.

A multigene prognostic assay for selection of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with T3, stage II colon cancer: impact on quality-adjusted life expectancy and costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hornberger, John; Lyman, Gary H; Chien, Rebecca; Meropol, Neal J

2012-12-01

Uncertainty exists regarding appropriate and affordable use of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colon cancer (T3, proficient DNA mismatch repair). This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness and costs from a US societal perspective of a multigene recurrence score (RS) assay for patients recently diagnosed with stage II colon cancer (T3, proficient DNA mismatch repair) eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy. RS was compared with guideline-recommended clinicopathological factors (tumor stage, lymph nodes examined, tumor grade, and lymphovascular invasion) by using a state-transition (Markov) lifetime model. Data were obtained from published literature, a randomized controlled trial (QUick And Simple And Reliable) of adjuvant chemotherapy, and rates of chemotherapy use from the National Cooperative Cancer Network Colon/Rectum Cancer Outcomes study. Life-years, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and lifetime costs were examined. The RS is projected to reduce adjuvant chemotherapy use by 17% compared with current treatment patterns and to increase quality-adjusted life expectancy by an average of 0.035 years. Direct medical costs are expected to decrease by an average of $2971 per patient. The assay was cost saving for all subgroups of patients stratified by clinicopathologic factors. The most influential variables affecting treatment decisions were projected years of life remaining, recurrence score, and patients' disutilities associated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Use of the multigene RS to assess recurrence risk after surgery in stage II colon cancer (T3, proficient DNA mismatch repair) may reduce the use of adjuvant chemotherapy without decreasing quality-adjusted life expectancy and be cost saving from a societal perspective. These findings need to be validated in additional cohorts, including studies of clinical practice as assay use diffuses into nonacademic settings. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR

Is Africa’s current growth reducing inequality? Evidence from some selected african countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alege P.O.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Is Africa’s current growth reducing inequality? What are the implications of growth on output performances in Africa? Does the effect of Africa’s growth on sectorial output have any implication for inequality in Africa? The study investigates the effect of shocks on a set of macroeconomic variables on inequality (measured by life expectancy and the implication of this on sectors that are perceived to provide economic empowerment in form of employment for people living in the African countries in our sample. Studies already find that growth in many African countries has not been accompanied with significant improvement in employment. Therefore inequality is subject to a counter cyclical trend in production levels when export destination countries experience a recession. The study also provides insight on the effect of growth on sectorial output for three major sectors in the African economy with the intent of analyzing the impact of growth on sectorial development. The method used in this study is Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR estimation and the obvious advantage of this method lies in the fact that it allows us to capture both static and dynamic interdependencies and to treat the links across units in an unrestricted fashion. Data is obtained from World Bank (WDI Statistics for the period 1985 to 2012 (28 years for 10 African Countries. Our main findings confirm strong negative relationship between GDP growth and life expectancy and also for GDP and the services and manufacturing sector considering the full sample.

Enrichment: CRISLA [chemical reaction by isotope selective activation] aims to reduce costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eerkens, J.W.

1989-01-01

Every year, more than $3 billion is spent on enriching uranium. CRISLA (Chemical Reaction by Isotope Selective Activation) uses a laser-catalyzed chemical reaction which, its proponents claim, could substantially reduce these costs. In CRISLA, an infrared CO laser illuminates the intracavity reaction cell (IC) at a frequency tuned to excite primarily UF 6 . When UF 6 and co-reactant RX are passed through the IC, the tuned laser photons preferentially enhance the reaction of UF 6 with RX ten-thousand-fold over the thermal reaction rate. Thus the laser serves as an activator and the chemical energy for separation is largely chemical. (author)

Effect of chemically reduced palladium supported catalyst on sunflower oil hydrogenation conversion and selectivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdulmajid Alshaibani

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Catalytic hydrogenation of sunflower oil was studied in order to improve the conversion and to reduce the trans-isomerization selectivity. The hydrogenation was performed using Pd–B/γ-Al2O3 prepared catalyst and Pd/Al2O3 commercial catalyst under similar conditions. The Pd–B/γ-Al2O3 catalyst was prepared by wet impregnation and chemical reduction processes. It was characterized by Brunauer–Emmett–Teller surface area analysis (BET, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD, scanning electron microscopy (SEM, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM. The result of sunflower oil hydrogenation on Pd–B/γ-Al2O3 catalyst showed a 17% higher conversion and a 23% lower trans-isomerization selectivity compared to the commercial Pd/Al2O3 catalyst. The chemical reduction of palladium supported catalyst using potassium borohydride (KBH4 has affected the Pd–B/γ-Al2O3 catalyst’s structure and particle size. These most likely influenced its catalytic performance toward higher conversion and lower trans-isomerization selectivity.

Biased selection within the social health insurance market in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Castano, Ramon; Zambrano, Andres

2006-12-01

Reducing the impact of insurance market failures with regulations such as community-rated premiums, standardized benefit packages and open enrolment, yield limited effect because they create room for selection bias. The Colombian social health insurance system started a market approach in 1993 expecting to improve performance of preexisting monopolistic insurance funds by exposing them to competition by new entrants. This paper tests the hypothesis that market failures would lead to biased selection favoring new entrants. Two household surveys are analyzed using Self-Reported Health Status and the presence of chronic conditions as prospective indicators of individual risk. Biased selection is found to take place, leading to adverse selection among incumbents, and favorable selection among new entrants. This pattern is absent in 1997 but is evident in 2003. Given that the two incumbents analyzed are public organizations, the fiscal implications of the findings in terms of government bailouts, are analyzed.

Cholinergic enhancement reduces functional connectivity and BOLD variability in visual extrastriate cortex during selective attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciardi, Emiliano; Handjaras, Giacomo; Bernardi, Giulio; Pietrini, Pietro; Furey, Maura L

2013-01-01

Enhancing cholinergic function improves performance on various cognitive tasks and alters neural responses in task specific brain regions. We have hypothesized that the changes in neural activity observed during increased cholinergic function reflect an increase in neural efficiency that leads to improved task performance. The current study tested this hypothesis by assessing neural efficiency based on cholinergically-mediated effects on regional brain connectivity and BOLD signal variability. Nine subjects participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover fMRI study. Following an infusion of physostigmine (1 mg/h) or placebo, echo-planar imaging (EPI) was conducted as participants performed a selective attention task. During the task, two images comprised of superimposed pictures of faces and houses were presented. Subjects were instructed periodically to shift their attention from one stimulus component to the other and to perform a matching task using hand held response buttons. A control condition included phase-scrambled images of superimposed faces and houses that were presented in the same temporal and spatial manner as the attention task; participants were instructed to perform a matching task. Cholinergic enhancement improved performance during the selective attention task, with no change during the control task. Functional connectivity analyses showed that the strength of connectivity between ventral visual processing areas and task-related occipital, parietal and prefrontal regions reduced significantly during cholinergic enhancement, exclusively during the selective attention task. Physostigmine administration also reduced BOLD signal temporal variability relative to placebo throughout temporal and occipital visual processing areas, again during the selective attention task only. Together with the observed behavioral improvement, the decreases in connectivity strength throughout task-relevant regions and BOLD variability within stimulus

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

The Effect of Broadened Ranges of Expectancy on Satisfaction with Performance

Science.gov (United States)

1988-08-01

Campbell, D.T. (1971). Hedonic relativism and planning the good society . In M.H. Appley (Ed.), Adaptation-level theory. New York: Academic Press. "€ Brickman...a lower plausible outcome within the expectancy range and see the current outcome as favorable (e.g. This is a good score. It was possible that I...improvement). Persons with narrow ranges of expectancies cannot make these hedonically preferable selective comparisons. Giving Up Too Early and

Expectation dynamics: Ups and downs of alternative fuels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Konrad, Kornelia Elke

2016-01-01

The transport sector must undergo radical changes if it is to reduce its carbon emissions, calling for alternative vehicles and fuel types. Researchers now analyse the expectation cycles for different fuel technologies and draw lessons for the role of US policy in supporting them.

Adolescent pregnancy: do expectations affect intentions?

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens-Simon, Catherine; Sheeder, Jeanelle; Beach, Roberta; Harter, Susan

2005-09-01

To establish the relationship between expectations about the effects of childbearing on specific aspects of life and the strength of the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. We hypothesized that the absence of negative childbearing expectations is associated with an increase in the odds that sexually active, inadequately contracepting teenage girls are cognitively susceptible to conception. A racially and ethnically diverse group of 351 nulligravida, inadequately contracepting teenagers was studied. Participants responded to 60 items that asked about their expectation about the effects of becoming pregnant and not doing so. Analyses were performed to determine the factorial structure of the childbearing expectations items and their relationship to cognitive susceptibility to conception, defined as the lack of desire to remain nonpregnant. The analysis yielded a 9-factor solution for the childbearing expectations items. All 9 sub-scales exhibited acceptable reliability coefficients, stable factor patterns, and correlated significantly with the desire to remain nonpregnant. A dose-dependent relationship suggestive of causality was also apparent. In stepwise regression the sub-scales that assessed the anticipated effect of childbearing on future plans, self-esteem, and boyfriend relations remained significant and accounted for 56% of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant. The lengthy research instrument was reduced to an 8-item screening tool without loss of psychometric integrity or explanatory power. Childbearing expectations reflect distinct concepts and account for a significant portion of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. Thus the 8-item screening tool we validated might be used to formulate a differential diagnosis for the enigmatic behavior of teens who say they do not "want" to become pregnant but do not "mind" doing so enough to try to avoid conceiving by default.

Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

Science.gov (United States)

1999-07-01

Breast Cancer Nausea and Vomiting Expectancy Patient Information Antiemetic Side Effect 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 15 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY ...CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Unclassified 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT...5-HT3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy-related vomiting, this has

The incentive amplifying effects of nicotine are reduced by selective and non-selective dopamine antagonists in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmatier, Matthew I; Kellicut, Marissa R; Brianna Sheppard, A; Brown, Russell W; Robinson, Donita L

2014-11-01

Nicotine is a psychomotor stimulant with 'reinforcement enhancing' effects--the actions of nicotine in the brain increase responding for non-nicotine rewards. We hypothesized that this latter effect of nicotine depends on increased incentive properties of anticipatory cues; consistent with this hypothesis, multiple laboratories have reported that nicotine increases sign tracking, i.e. approach to a conditioned stimulus (CS), in Pavlovian conditioned-approach tasks. Incentive motivation and sign tracking are mediated by mesolimbic dopamine (DA) transmission and nicotine facilitates mesolimbic DA release. Therefore, we hypothesized that the incentive-promoting effects of nicotine would be impaired by DA antagonists. To test this hypothesis, separate groups of rats were injected with nicotine (0.4mg/kg base) or saline prior to Pavlovian conditioning sessions in which a CS (30s illumination of a light or presentation of a lever) was immediately followed by a sweet reward delivered in an adjacent location. Both saline and nicotine pretreated rats exhibited similar levels of conditioned approach to the reward location (goal tracking), but nicotine pretreatment significantly increased approach to the CS (sign tracking), regardless of type (lever or light). The DAD1 antagonist SCH-23390 and the DAD2/3 antagonist eticlopride reduced conditioned approach in all rats, but specifically reduced goal tracking in the saline pretreated rats and sign tracking in the nicotine pretreated rats. The non-selective DA antagonist flupenthixol reduced sign-tracking in nicotine rats at all doses tested; however, only the highest dose of flupenthixol reduced goal tracking in both nicotine and saline groups. The reductions in conditioned approach behavior, especially those by SCH-23390, were dissociated from simple motor suppressant effects of the antagonists. These experiments are the first to investigate the effects of dopaminergic drugs on the facilitation of sign-tracking engendered by

Vocational Preferences and College Expectations: An Extension of Holland's Principle of Self-Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Pike, Gary R.

2006-01-01

Holland's theory of vocational preferences provides a powerful framework for studying students' college experiences. A basic proposition of Holland's theory is that individuals actively seek out and select environments that are congruent with their personality types. Although studies consistently support the self-selection proposition, they have…

Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

Science.gov (United States)

Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2014-12-01

The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Expectations and voluntary attrition in nursing students.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donnell, Hugh

2011-01-01

This paper presents a series of findings generated during a larger study which aimed to develop a theoretical understanding of the reasons why nursing students voluntarily leave pre-registration nursing programmes. In this study, significant incongruence was found to exist between student expectations of pre-registration nursing programmes and the reality of these programmes following entry. The resulting dissonance was identified as an important factor in student decisions to voluntarily withdraw. A single case study design was selected to explore the causes of voluntary attrition in nursing students within a School of Nursing and Midwifery. The study population was obtained through purposeful sampling and consisted of 15 students who had previously voluntarily withdrawn from pre-registration nursing programmes. A semi-structured interview method was used to collect data from study participants. The interview schedule developed for use in the study reflected the key components of the conceptual model of higher education (HE) student attrition (Tinto, 1975, 1987, 1993). All interviews were tape recorded to facilitate later transcription. The Cyclical or Interactive Model of Qualitative Research (Miles and Huberman, 1994) was used to analyse data collected from study participants. This paper describes the unrealistic range of expectations which nursing students have of nursing, the information sources and experiences which inform student expectations and how ambiguous expectations contributed to voluntarily attrition. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selective Cannabinoid 2 Receptor Stimulation Reduces Tubular Epithelial Cell Damage after Renal Ischemia-Reperfusion Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Pressly, Jeffrey D; Mustafa, Suni M; Adibi, Ammaar H; Alghamdi, Sahar; Pandey, Pankaj; Roy, Kuldeep K; Doerksen, Robert J; Moore, Bob M; Park, Frank

2018-02-01

Ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) is a common cause of acute kidney injury (AKI), which is an increasing problem in the clinic and has been associated with elevated rates of mortality. Therapies to treat AKI are currently not available, so identification of new targets that can be modulated to ameliorate renal damage upon diagnosis of AKI is essential. In this study, a novel cannabinoid receptor 2 (CB2) agonist, SMM-295 [3'-methyl-4-(2-(thiophen-2-yl)propan-2-yl)biphenyl-2,6-diol], was designed, synthesized, and tested in vitro and in silico. Molecular docking of SMM-295 into a CB2 active-state homology model showed that SMM-295 interacts well with key amino acids to stabilize the active state. In human embryonic kidney 293 cells, SMM-295 was capable of reducing cAMP production with 66-fold selectivity for CB2 versus cannabinoid receptor 1 and dose-dependently increased mitogen-activated protein kinase and Akt phosphorylation. In vivo testing of the CB2 agonist was performed using a mouse model of bilateral IRI, which is a common model to mimic human AKI, where SMM-295 was immediately administered upon reperfusion of the kidneys after the ischemia episode. Histologic damage assessment 48 hours after reperfusion demonstrated reduced tubular damage in the presence of SMM-295. This was consistent with reduced plasma markers of renal dysfunction (i.e., creatinine and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin) in SMM-295-treated mice. Mechanistically, kidneys treated with SMM-295 were shown to have elevated activation of Akt with reduced terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated digoxigenin-deoxyuridine nick-end labeling (TUNEL)-positive cells compared with vehicle-treated kidneys after IRI. These data suggest that selective CB2 receptor activation could be a potential therapeutic target in the treatment of AKI. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Separating selection by diurnal and nocturnal pollinators on floral display and spur length in Gymnadenia conopsea.

Science.gov (United States)

Sletvold, Nina; Trunschke, Judith; Wimmergren, Carolina; Agren, Jon

2012-08-01

Most plants attract multiple flower visitors that may vary widely in their effectiveness as pollinators. Floral evolution is expected to reflect interactions with the most important pollinators, but few studies have quantified the contribution of different pollinators to current selection on floral traits. To compare selection mediated by diurnal and nocturnal pollinators on floral display and spur length in the rewarding orchid Gymnadenia conopsea, we manipulated the environment by conducting supplemental hand-pollinations and selective pollinator exclusions in two populations in central Norway. In both populations, the exclusion of diurnal pollinators significantly reduced seed production compared to open pollination, whereas the exclusion of nocturnal pollinators did not. There was significant selection on traits expected to influence pollinator attraction and pollination efficiency in both the diurnal and nocturnal pollination treatment. The relative strength of selection among plants exposed to diurnal and nocturnal visitors varied among traits and populations, but the direction of selection was consistent. The results suggest that diurnal pollinators are more important than nocturnal pollinators for seed production in the study populations, but that both categories contribute to selection on floral morphology. The study illustrates how experimental manipulations can link specific categories of pollinators to observed selection on floral traits, and thus improve our understanding of how species interactions shape patterns of selection.

Expected Influence of Ethics on Product Development Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stig Larsson

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Product development efficiency and effectiveness is depending on a process being well executed. The actions of individuals included in the processes are influenced by the ethical and moral orientations that have been selected by each individual, whether this selection is conscious or not. This paper describes different ethical choices and the expected effects they may have on the development process exemplified by the product integration process for software products. The different frameworks analyzed are utilitarianism, rights ethics, duty ethics, virtue ethics and ethical egoism. The expected effects on the goals for product integration may be debated. This is a result in it self as it triggers discussions about ethical considerations and increase the awareness of the influence of moral decisions. Our conclusion is that the adherence to specific moral frameworks simplifies the alignment of actions to the practices described in product development models and standards and through this supports a more successful execution of product development projects. This conclusion is also confirmed through a comparison between the different directions and several codes of ethics for engineers issued by organizations such as IEEE as these combine features from several of the discussed ethical directions.

The influence of executive capacity on selective attention and subsequent processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirk R. Daffner

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Recent investigations that suggest selective attention is dependent on top-down control mechanisms lead to the expectation that individuals with high executive capacity would exhibit more robust neural indices of selective attention. This prediction was tested by using event-related potentials (ERPs to examine differences in markers of information processing across 25 subjects divided into 2 groups based on high vs. average executive capacity, as defined by neuropsychological test scores. Subjects performed an experimental task requiring selective attention to a specified color. In contrast to expectation, individuals with high and average executive capacity did not differ in the size of ERP indices of selective attention: the anterior Selection Positivity (SP and posterior Selection Negativity (SN. However, there were substantial differences between groups in markers of subsequent processing, including the anterior N2 (a measure of attentional control and the P3a (an index of the orienting of attention. Executive capacity predicted speed of processing at both early and late attentional stages. Individuals with lower executive capacity exhibited prolonged SN, P3a, and P3b latencies. However, the delays in carrying out selective attention operations did not account for subsequent delays in decision making, or explain excessive orienting and reduced attentional control mechanisms in response to stimuli that should have been ignored. SN latency, P3 latency, and the size of the anterior N2 made independent contributions to the variance of executive capacity. In summary, our findings suggest that current views regarding the relationship between top-down control mechanisms and selective attention may need refinement.

Evolutionary Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nash, Ulrik William

2014-01-01

, they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2015-01-01

This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

Enhanced Patient Expectation and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

Science.gov (United States)

1999-07-01

NUMBER OF PAGES 15 Breast Cancer Expectancy Antiemetic Nausea and Vomiting Patient Information Side Effect 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18... SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified...by the introduction of the 5-HT 3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy

Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

2004-01-01

Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

Expected genetic gain in teak (Tectona grandis L.f.) in Cordoba (Colombia)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espitia C, Miguel; Olman Murillo, G; Carlos Castillo, P

2011-01-01

The Cordoba department of Colombia programmed to establish 200000 ha of forest plantations by year 2025. Teak was priorized by its adaptation, wood quality and value in the asian markets. The objective of this research was to estimate the expected genetic gain, of phenotypically selected pluss trees in 5316 ha plantation in Cordoba, for diameter at breast height, commercial height, commercial volume and log quality traits. The selection based on the pheno typical evaluation of the tree candidate and its four best neighbors within a 20 m radius, qualifying, individually the first four segments of 2.5 m length. Selected trees were classified in list A as determined to be superior in both, volume and quality, according to the selection differential to all its four best neighbors. List B included those plus trees found superior only in commercial volume or in stem quality. Genetic gain was estimated by multiplying selection differential X average narrow sense heritability. We estimated a Selection Index that integrate commercial volume (60%) and stem quality (40%). From 46 selected trees, 18 were classified as plus A. In selecting and cloning the 18 best A plus trees, based on the Selection Index, we expected genetic gains of 5.52% (diameter); 17.50% (height); 41.71% (commercial volume) and 9,59% (stem quality). These results suggest an important genetic progress breeding teak in Cordoba, as long as they broaden the genetic base of the program and verify results with genetic testing in various potential production areas.

Expecting the unexpected

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

2013-01-01

People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

Digoxin derivatives with selectivity for the α2β3 isoform of Na,K-ATPase potently reduce intraocular pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Adriana; Tal, Daniel M; Heller, Dan; Habeck, Michael; Ben Zeev, Efrat; Rabah, Bilal; Bar Kana, Yaniv; Marcovich, Arie L; Karlish, Steven J D

2015-11-03

The ciliary epithelium in the eye consists of pigmented epithelial cells that express the α1β1 isoform of Na,K-ATPase and nonpigmented epithelial cells that express mainly the α2β3 isoform. In principle, a Na,K-ATPase inhibitor with selectivity for α2β3 that penetrates the cornea could effectively reduce intraocular pressure, with minimal systemic or local toxicity. We have recently synthesized perhydro-1,4-oxazepine derivatives of digoxin by NaIO4 oxidation of the third digitoxose and reductive amination with various R-NH2 substituents and identified derivatives with significant selectivity for human α2β1 over α1β1 (up to 7.5-fold). When applied topically, the most α2-selective derivatives effectively prevented or reversed pharmacologically raised intraocular pressure in rabbits. A recent structure of Na,K-ATPase, with bound digoxin, shows the third digitoxose approaching one residue in the β1 subunit, Gln84, suggesting a role for β in digoxin binding. Gln84 in β1 is replaced by Val88 in β3. Assuming that alkyl substituents might interact with β3Val88, we synthesized perhydro-1,4-oxazepine derivatives of digoxin with diverse alkyl substituents. The methylcyclopropyl and cyclobutyl derivatives are strongly selective for α2β3 over α1β1 (22-33-fold respectively), as determined either with purified human isoform proteins or intact bovine nonpigmented epithelium cells. When applied topically on rabbit eyes, these derivatives potently reduce both pharmacologically raised and basal intraocular pressure. The cyclobutyl derivative is more efficient than Latanoprost, the most widely used glaucoma drug. Thus, the conclusion is that α2β3-selective digoxin derivatives effectively penetrate the cornea and inhibit the Na,K-ATPase, hence reducing aqueous humor production. The new digoxin derivatives may have potential for glaucoma drug therapy.

Unequal Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlson, Kristian Bernt

the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

Science.gov (United States)

HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

2011-01-01

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

Life expectancy in elderly patients following burns injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepehripour, Sarvnaz; Duggineni, Sirisha; Shahsavari, Somaya; Dheansa, Baljit

2018-05-18

Burn injuries commonly occur in vulnerable age and social groups. Previous research has shown that frailty may represent a more important marker of adverse outcome in healthcare rather than chronological age (Roberts et al., 2012). In this paper we determined the relationship between burn injury, frailty, co-morbidities and long-term survival. Retrospective data collection from patients aged 75 with burns injuries, treated and discharged at Queen Victoria Hospital. The Clinical Frailty Scale (Rockwood et al., 2005) was used to calculate frailty at the time of admission. The expected mortality age (life expectancy) of deceased patients was obtained from two survival predictors. The data shows a statistically significant correlation between frailty score and complications and a statistically significant correlation between total body surface area percentage and complications. No significant difference was found between expected and observed age of death or life expectancy amongst the deceased (p value of 0.109). Based on the data from our unit, sustaining a burn as an elderly person does not reduce life expectancy. Medical and surgical complications, immediate, early and late, although higher with greater frailty and TBSA of burn, but do not adversely affect survival in this population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The attentional white bear phenomenon: the mandatory allocation of attention to expected distractor locations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsal, Yehoshua; Makovski, Tal

2006-04-01

The authors devised a prestimulus-probe method to assess the allocation of attention as a function of participants' top-down expectancies concerning distractor and target locations. Participants performed the flanker task, and distractor locations remained fixed. On some trials, instead of the flanker display, either 2 simultaneous dots or a horizontal line appeared. The dot in the expected distractor location was perceived to occur before the dot in the expected empty location, and the line appeared to extend from the expected distractor location to the expected empty location, suggesting that attention is allocated to expected distractor locations prior to stimulus onset. The authors propose that a process-all mechanism guides attention to expected locations of all stimuli regardless of task demands and that this constitutes a major cause for failures of selective attention.

Selective Decontamination of the Digestive Tract Reduces Pneumonia and Mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenneke E. M. Haas

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD has been subject of numerous randomized controlled trials in critically ill patients. Almost all clinical trials showed SDD to prevent pneumonia. Nevertheless, SDD has remained a controversial strategy. One reason for why clinicians remained reluctant to implement SDD into daily practice could be that mortality was reduced in only 2 trials. Another reason could be the heterogeneity of trials of SDD. Indeed, many different prophylactic antimicrobial regimes were tested, and dissimilar diagnostic criteria for pneumonia were applied amongst the trials. This heterogeneity impeded interpretation and comparison of trial results. Two other hampering factors for implementation of SDD have been concerns over the risk of antimicrobial resistance and fear for escalation of costs associated with the use of prophylactic antimicrobials. This paper describes the concept of SDD, summarizes the results of published trials of SDD in mixed medical-surgical intensive care units, and rationalizes the risk of antimicrobial resistance and rise of costs associated with this potentially life-saving preventive strategy.

A Weakest Pre-Expectation Semantics for Mixed-Sign Expectations

OpenAIRE

Kaminski, Benjamin Lucien; Katoen, Joost-Pieter

2017-01-01

We present a weakest-precondition-style calculus for reasoning about the expected values (pre-expectations) of \\emph{mixed-sign unbounded} random variables after execution of a probabilistic program. The semantics of a while-loop is well-defined as the limit of iteratively applying a functional to a zero-element just as in the traditional weakest pre-expectation calculus, even though a standard least fixed point argument is not applicable in this context. A striking feature of our semantics i...

Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Sellitto, Manuela; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe

2016-06-05

Nowadays, the increasing incidence of eating disorders due to poor self-control has given rise to increased obesity and other chronic weight problems, and ultimately, to reduced life expectancy. The capacity to refrain from automatic responses is usually high in situations in which making errors is highly likely. The protocol described here aims at reducing imprudent preference in women during hypothetical intertemporal choices about appetitive food by associating it with errors. First, participants undergo an error task where two different edible stimuli are associated with two different error likelihoods (high and low). Second, they make intertemporal choices about the two edible stimuli, separately. As a result, this method decreases the discount rate for future amounts of the edible reward that cued higher error likelihood, selectively. This effect is under the influence of the self-reported hunger level. The present protocol demonstrates that errors, well known as motivationally salient events, can induce the recruitment of cognitive control, thus being ultimately useful in reducing impatient choices for edible commodities.

Vacuum expectation value of twist fields

Science.gov (United States)

Belitsky, A. V.

2017-09-01

Twist fields emerge in a number of physical applications ranging from entanglement entropy to scattering amplitudes in four-dimensional gauge theories. In this work, their vacuum expectation values are studied in the path integral framework. By performing a gauge transformation, their correlation functions are reduced to field theory of matter fields in external Aharonov-Bohm vortices. The resulting functional determinants are then analyzed within the zeta-function regularization for the spectrum of Bessel zeros, and concise formulas are derived.

Inequalities in healthy life expectancy by Brazilian geographic regions: findings from the National Health Survey, 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann; Souza Júnior, Paulo Roberto Borges de; Marques, Aline Pinto; Almeida, Wanessa da Silva de; Montilla, Dalia Elena Romero

2016-11-17

The demographic shift and epidemiologic transition in Brazil have drawn attention to ways of measuring population health that complement studies of mortality. In this paper, we investigate regional differences in healthy life expectancy based on information from the National Health Survey (PNS), 2013. In the survey, a three-stage cluster sampling (census tracts, households and individuals) with stratification of the primary sampling units and random selection in all stages was used to select 60,202 Brazilian adults (18 years and over). Healthy life expectancies (HLE) were estimated by Sullivan's method according to sex, age and geographic region, using poor self-rated health for defining unhealthy status. Logistic regression models were used to investigate socioeconomic and regional inequalities in poor self-rated health, after controlling by sex and age. Wide disparities by geographic region were found with the worst indicators in the North and Northeast regions, whether considering educational attainment, material deprivation, or health care utilization. Life expectancy at birth for women and men living in the richest regions was 5 years longer than for those living in the less wealthy regions. Modeling the variation across regions for poor self-rated health, statistically significant effects (p < 0.001) were found for the North and Northeast when compared to the Southeast, even after controlling for age, sex, diagnosis of at least one non-communicable chronic disease, and schooling or socioeconomic class. Marked regional inequalities in HLE were found, with the loss of healthy life much higher among residents of the poorest regions, especially among the elderly. By combining data on self-rated health status and mortality in a single indicator, Healthy Life Expectancy, this study demonstrated the excess burden of poor health experienced by populations in the less wealthy regions of Brazil. To mitigate the effects of social exclusion, the development of strategies

Expectations and experiences of customers in formal full service ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The DINESERV gap was -0.47, which indicates that overall customers' experiences fell below customers' expectations. Restaurateurs should improve customers' experiences to reduce the DINESERV gap. The results of this study could help restaurateurs to identify areas of improvement and increase customer satisfaction.

S-phenylpiracetam, a selective DAT inhibitor, reduces body weight gain without influencing locomotor activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Zvejniece, Liga; Svalbe, Baiba; Vavers, Edijs; Makrecka-Kuka, Marina; Makarova, Elina; Liepins, Vilnis; Kalvinsh, Ivars; Liepinsh, Edgars; Dambrova, Maija

2017-09-01

S-phenylpiracetam is an optical isomer of phenotropil, which is a clinically used nootropic drug that improves physical condition and cognition. Recently, it was shown that S-phenylpiracetam is a selective dopamine transporter (DAT) inhibitor that does not influence norepinephrine (NE) or serotonin (5-HT) receptors. The aim of the present study was to study the effects of S-phenylpiracetam treatment on body weight gain, blood glucose and leptin levels, and locomotor activity. Western diet (WD)-fed mice and obese Zucker rats were treated daily with peroral administration of S-phenylpiracetam for 8 and 12weeks, respectively. Weight gain and plasma metabolites reflecting glucose metabolism were measured. Locomotor activity was detected in an open-field test. S-phenylpiracetam treatment significantly decreased body weight gain and fat mass increase in the obese Zucker rats and in the WD-fed mice. In addition, S-phenylpiracetam reduced the plasma glucose and leptin concentration and lowered hyperglycemia in a glucose tolerance test in both the mice and the rats. S-phenylpiracetam did not influence locomotor activity in the obese Zucker rats or in the WD-fed mice. The results demonstrate that S-phenylpiracetam reduces body weight gain and improves adaptation to hyperglycemia without stimulating locomotor activity. Our findings suggest that selective DAT inhibitors, such as S-phenylpiracetam, could be potentially useful for treating obesity in patients with metabolic syndrome with fewer adverse health consequences compared to other anorectic agents. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A comparison of probability of ruin and expected discounted utility ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Individuals in defined-contribution retirement funds currently have a number of options as to how to finance their post-retirement spending. The paper considers the ranking of selected annuitisation strategies by the probability of ruin and by expected discounted utility under different scenarios. 'Ruin' is defined as occurring ...

Genomic selection using indicator traits to reduce the environmental impact of milk production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen Axelsson, H; Fikse, W F; Kargo, Morten

2013-01-01

The aim of this simulation study was to test the hypothesis that phenotype information of specific indicator traits of environmental importance recorded on a small-scale can be implemented in breeding schemes with genomic selection to reduce the environmental impact of milk production. A stochastic...... was, however, best in the scenarios where the genetic correlation between IT and EI was ≥0.30 and the accuracy of direct genomic value was ≥0.40. The genetic gain in EI was 26 to 34% higher when indicator traits such as greenhouse gases in the breath of the cow and methane recorded in respiration...... of direct genomic values will be reasonably high...

Validation of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire-Brief

Science.gov (United States)

Torrealday, O.; Stein, L. A. R.; Barnett, N.; Golembeske, C.; Lebeau, R.; Colby, S. M.; Monti, P. M.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a brief version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire (MEEQ; Schafer & Brown, 1991). The original MEEQ was reduced to 6 items (MEEQ-B). Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed and two factors were identified (positive effects and negative effects) accounting for 52.3% of the variance.…

Identification of petroleum hydrocarbons using a reduced number of PAHs selected by Procrustes rotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Varela, R; Andrade, J M; Muniategui, S; Prada, D; Ramírez-Villalobos, F

2010-04-01

Identifying petroleum-related products released into the environment is a complex and difficult task. To achieve this, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are of outstanding importance nowadays. Despite traditional quantitative fingerprinting uses straightforward univariate statistical analyses to differentiate among oils and to assess their sources, a multivariate strategy based on Procrustes rotation (PR) was applied in this paper. The aim of PR is to select a reduced subset of PAHs still capable of performing a satisfactory identification of petroleum-related hydrocarbons. PR selected two subsets of three (C(2)-naphthalene, C(2)-dibenzothiophene and C(2)-phenanthrene) and five (C(1)-decahidronaphthalene, naphthalene, C(2)-phenanthrene, C(3)-phenanthrene and C(2)-fluoranthene) PAHs for each of the two datasets studied here. The classification abilities of each subset of PAHs were tested using principal components analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and Kohonen neural networks and it was demonstrated that they unraveled the same patterns as the overall set of PAHs. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

I'm hot, so i'd say you're not: the influence of objective physical attractiveness on mate selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Montoya, R Matthew

2008-10-01

Four studies investigated the importance of objective and subjective attributes to mate selection. This research tested whether perceivers' objective physical attractiveness influenced how they evaluated the physical attractiveness of others and, if considered, may provide a parsimonious account for matching in mate selection. Study 1 (N = 102) demonstrated that ratings of targets' attractiveness decreased as perceivers' objective physical attractiveness increased. Studies 2 (N = 89) and 3 (N = 68) revealed that as perceivers' objective physical attractiveness increased, reductions in expected satisfaction and rejection were mediated by perceivers' reduced assessments of targets' attractiveness. Study 4 (N = 114) produced patterns of matching by finding that attractive perceivers expected to date more attractive targets while unattractive perceivers expected to date less attractive targets. This research emphasizes the importance of objective physical attractiveness to target evaluations and describes how matching results from the combined influence of objective and subjective attributes.

Influence of Clinical Communication on Parents' Antibiotic Expectations for Children With Respiratory Tract Infections.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabral, Christie; Ingram, Jenny; Lucas, Patricia J; Redmond, Niamh M; Kai, Joe; Hay, Alastair D; Horwood, Jeremy

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study was to understand clinicians' and parents' perceptions of communication within consultations for respiratory tract infections (RTI) in children and what influence clinician communication had on parents' understanding of antibiotic treatment. We video recorded 60 primary care consultations for children aged 3 months to 12 years who presented with RTI and cough in 6 primary care practices in England. We then used purposive sampling to select 27 parents and 13 clinicians for semistructured video-elicitation interviews. The videos were used as prompts to investigate participants' understanding and views of communication within the consultations. We analyzed the interview data thematically. While clinicians commonly told parents that antibiotics are not effective against viruses, this did not have much impact on parents' beliefs about the need to consult or on their expectations concerning antibiotics. Parents believed that antibiotics were needed to treat more severe illnesses, a belief that was supported by the way clinicians accompanied viral diagnoses with problem-minimizing language and antibiotic prescriptions with more problem-oriented language. Antibiotic prescriptions tended to confirm parents' beliefs about what indicated illness severity, which often took into account the wider impact on a child's life. While parents understood antimicrobial resistance poorly, most held beliefs that supported reduced antibiotic prescribing. A minority attributed it to resource rationing, however. Clinician communication and prescribing behavior confirm parents' beliefs that antibiotics are needed to treat more severe illnesses. Interventions to reduce antibiotic expectations need to address communication within the consultation, prescribing behavior, and lay beliefs. © 2016 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Does Physical Activity Increase Life Expectancy? A Review of the Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. D. Reimers

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Physical activity reduces many major mortality risk factors including arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus type 2, dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cancer. All-cause mortality is decreased by about 30% to 35% in physically active as compared to inactive subjects. The purpose of this paper was to synthesize the literature on life expectancy in relation to physical activity. A systematic PubMed search on life expectancy in physically active and inactive individuals was performed. In addition, articles comparing life expectancy of athletes compared to that of nonathletes were reviewed. Results of 13 studies describing eight different cohorts suggest that regular physical activity is associated with an increase of life expectancy by 0.4 to 6.9 years. Eleven studies included confounding risk factors for mortality and revealed an increase in life expectancy by 0.4 to 4.2 years with regular physical activity. Eleven case control studies on life expectancy in former athletes revealed consistently greater life expectancy in aerobic endurance athletes but inconsistent results for other athletes. None of these studies considered confounding risk factors for mortality. In conclusion, while regular physical activity increases life expectancy, it remains unclear if high-intensity sports activities further increase life expectancy.

Reducible cationic lipids for gene transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Wetzer, B; Byk, G; Frederic, M; Airiau, M; Blanche, F; Pitard, B; Scherman, D

2001-01-01

One of the main challenges of gene therapy remains the increase of gene delivery into eukaryotic cells. We tested whether intracellular DNA release, an essential step for gene transfer, could be facilitated by using reducible cationic DNA-delivery vectors. For this purpose, plasmid DNA was complexed with cationic lipids bearing a disulphide bond. This reduction-sensitive linker is expected to be reduced and cleaved in the reducing milieu of the cytoplasm, thus potentially improving DNA release and consequently transfection. The DNA--disulphide-lipid complexation was monitored by ethidium bromide exclusion, and the size of complexes was determined by dynamic light scattering. It was found that the reduction kinetics of disulphide groups in DNA--lipid complexes depended on the position of the disulphide linker within the lipid molecule. Furthermore, the internal structure of DNA--lipid particles was examined by small-angle X-ray scattering before and after lipid reduction. DNA release from lipid complexes was observed after the reduction of disulphide bonds of several lipids. Cell-transfection experiments suggested that complexes formed with selected reducible lipids resulted in up to 1000-fold higher reporter-gene activity, when compared with their analogues without disulphide bonds. In conclusion, reduction-sensitive groups introduced into cationic lipid backbones potentially allow enhanced DNA release from DNA--lipid complexes after intracellular reduction and represent a tool for improved vectorization. PMID:11389682

Laypersons' expectation of the sequelae of whiplash injury: a cross-cultural comparative study between Canada and Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Constantoyannis, Constantine; Papadakis, Nikolas

2003-03-01

The objective of the present study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected 'whiplash' symptoms in Greece [a country where the chronic whiplash syndrome is rare or unknown] with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to 2 subject groups selected from local companies in Patras Greece, and Edmonton, Canada, respectively. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain [whiplash injury] with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision, and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both the Greek and Edmontonian groups, the pattern of symptoms anticipated closely resembled the acute symptoms commonly reported by accident victims with acute neck sprain, but while up to 50% of Edmontonians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, very few Greek subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Greece, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. What current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Greece may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

Laypersons' expectation of the sequelae of whiplash injury. A cross-cultural comparative study between Canada and Lithuania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Obelieniene, Diana; Russell, Anthony; Darlington, Paul; Gervais, Roger; Green, Paul

2002-11-01

The objective of the present study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected 'whiplash' symptoms in Lithuania (a country where the late whiplash syndrome is rare or unknown) with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to 2 subject groups selected from local companies in Kaunas, Lithuania, and Edmonton, Canada, respectively. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle accident, and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both the Lithuanian and Edmontonian groups, the pattern of symptoms anticipated closely resembled the acute symptoms commonly reported by accident victims with acute neck sprain, but while up to 50% of Edmontonians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, very few Lithuanian subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Lithuania, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in some 50% of individuals following motor vehicle accidents, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. What current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Lithuania may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the late whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the late whiplash syndrome are needed.

What You Know About Customer-Perceived Quality: The Role of Customer Expectation Distributions

OpenAIRE

Roland T. Rust; J. Jeffrey Inman; Jianmin Jia; Anthony Zahorik

1999-01-01

We show that some of the most common beliefs about customer-perceived quality are wrong. For example, 1) it is not necessary to exceed customer expectations to increase preference, 2) receiving an expected level of bad service does not reduce preference, 3) rational customers may rationally choose an option with lower expected quality, even if all non-quality attributes are equal, and 4) paying more attention to loyal, experienced customers can sometimes be counter-productive. These surprisin...

The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

2014-01-01

The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

Surgical patient selection and counseling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegelmann, Matt; Köhler, Tobias S; Bailey, George C; Miest, Tanner; Alom, Manaf; Trost, Landon

2017-08-01

The objectives of patient selection and counseling are ultimately to enhance successful outcomes. However, the definition for success is often narrowly defined in published literature (ability to complete surgery, complications, satisfaction) and fails to account for patient desires and expectations, temporal changes, natural history of underlying diseases, or independent validation. Factors associated with satisfaction and dissatisfaction are often surgery-specific, although correlation with pre-operative expectations, revisions, and complications are common with most procedures. The process of appropriate patient selection is determined by the integration of patient and surgeon factors, including psychological capacity to handle unsatisfactory results, baseline expectations, complexity of case, and surgeon volume and experience. Using this model, a high-risk scenario includes one in which a low-volume surgeon performs a complex case in a patient with limited psychological capacity and high expectations. In contrast, a high-volume surgeon performing a routine case in a male with low expectations and abundant psychiatric reserve is more likely to achieve a successful outcome. To further help identify patients who are at high risk for dissatisfaction, a previously published mnemonic is recommended: CURSED Patient (compulsive/obsessive, unrealistic, revision, surgeon shopping, entitled, denial, and psychiatric). Appropriate patient counseling includes setting appropriate expectations, reviewing the potential and anticipated risks of surgery, post-operative instruction to limit complications, and long-term follow-up. As thorough counseling is often a time-consuming endeavor, busy practices may elect to utilize various resources including educational materials, advanced practice providers, or group visits, among others. The consequences for poor patient selection and counseling may range from poor surgical outcomes and patient dissatisfaction to lawsuits, loss of

Identifying footprints of directional and balancing selection in marine and freshwater three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkinen, H S; Cano, J M; Merilä, J

2008-08-01

Natural selection is expected to leave an imprint on the neutral polymorphisms at the adjacent genomic regions of a selected gene. While directional selection tends to reduce within-population genetic diversity and increase among-population differentiation, the reverse is expected under balancing selection. To identify targets of natural selection in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) genome, 103 microsatellite and two indel markers including expressed sequence tags (EST) and quantitative trait loci (QTL)-associated loci, were genotyped in four freshwater and three marine populations. The results indicated that a high proportion of loci (14.7%) might be affected by balancing selection and a lower proportion (2.8%) by directional selection. The strongest signatures of directional selection were detected in a microsatellite locus and two indel markers located in the intronic regions of the Eda-gene coding for the number of lateral plates. Yet, other microsatellite loci previously found to be informative in QTL-mapping studies revealed no signatures of selection. Two novel microsatellite loci (Stn12 and Stn90) located in chromosomes I and VIII, respectively, showed signals of directional selection and might be linked to genomic regions containing gene(s) important for adaptive divergence. Although the coverage of the total genomic content was relatively low, the predominance of balancing selection signals is in agreement with the contention that balancing, rather than directional selection is the predominant mode of selection in the wild.

Reduced disease in black abalone following mass mortality: Phage therapy and natural selection

Science.gov (United States)

VanBlaricom, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

Black abalone, Haliotis cracherodii, populations along the NE Pacific ocean have declined due to the rickettsial disease withering syndrome (WS). Natural recovery on San Nicolas Island (SNI) of Southern California suggested the development of resistance in island populations. Experimental challenges in one treatment demonstrated that progeny of disease-selected black abalone from SNI survived better than did those from naïve black abalone from Carmel Point in mainland coastal central California. Unexpectedly, the presence of a newly observed bacteriophage infecting the WS rickettsia (WS-RLO) had strong effects on the survival of infected abalone. Specifically, presence of phage-infected RLO (RLOv) reduced the host response to infection, RLO infection loads, and associated mortality. These data suggest that the black abalone: WS-RLO relationship is evolving through dual host mechanisms of resistance to RLO infection in the digestive gland via tolerance to infection in the primary target tissue (the post-esophagus) coupled with reduced pathogenicity of the WS-RLO by phage infection, which effectively reduces the infection load in the primary target tissue by half. Sea surface temperature patterns off southern California, associated with a recent hiatus in global-scale ocean warming, do not appear to be a sufficient explanation for survival patterns in SNI black abalone. These data highlight the potential for natural recovery of abalone populations over time and that further understanding of mechanisms governing host–parasite relationships will better enable us to manage declining populations.

Reduced disease in black abalone following mass mortality: Phage therapy and natural selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolyn S Friedman

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Black abalone, Haliotis cracherodii, populations along the NE Pacific ocean have declined due to the rickettsial disease withering syndrome (WS. Natural recovery on San Nicolas Island (SNI off Southern California suggested the development of resistance in island populations. Experimental challenges in one treatment demonstrated that progeny of disease-selected black abalone from SNI survived better than did those from naïve black abalone from Carmel Point (CP in mainland coastal central California. Unexpectedly, the presence of a newly observed bacteriophage infecting the WS rickettsia (WS-RLO had strong effects on the survival of infected abalone. Specifically, presence of phage-infected RLO (RLOv reduced the host response to infection, RLO infection loads, and associated mortality. These data suggest that the black abalone: WS-RLO relationship is evolving through dual host mechanisms of resistance to RLO infection in the digestive gland via tolerance to infection in the primary target tissue (the post-esophagus coupled with reduced pathogenicity of the WS-RLO by phage infection, which effectively reduces the infection load in the primary target tissue by half. Sea surface temperature patterns off southern California, associated with a recent hiatus in global-scale ocean warming, do not appear to be a sufficient explanation for survival patterns in SNI black abalone. These data highlight the potential for natural recovery of abalone populations over time and that further understanding of mechanisms governing host-parasite relationships will better enable us to manage declining populations.

Reduced disease in black abalone following mass mortality: phage therapy and natural selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Carolyn S; Wight, Nathan; Crosson, Lisa M; Vanblaricom, Glenn R; Lafferty, Kevin D

2014-01-01

Black abalone, Haliotis cracherodii, populations along the NE Pacific ocean have declined due to the rickettsial disease withering syndrome (WS). Natural recovery on San Nicolas Island (SNI) of Southern California suggested the development of resistance in island populations. Experimental challenges in one treatment demonstrated that progeny of disease-selected black abalone from SNI survived better than did those from naïve black abalone from Carmel Point in mainland coastal central California. Unexpectedly, the presence of a newly observed bacteriophage infecting the WS rickettsia (WS-RLO) had strong effects on the survival of infected abalone. Specifically, presence of phage-infected RLO (RLOv) reduced the host response to infection, RLO infection loads, and associated mortality. These data suggest that the black abalone: WS-RLO relationship is evolving through dual host mechanisms of resistance to RLO infection in the digestive gland via tolerance to infection in the primary target tissue (the post-esophagus) coupled with reduced pathogenicity of the WS-RLO by phage infection, which effectively reduces the infection load in the primary target tissue by half. Sea surface temperature patterns off southern California, associated with a recent hiatus in global-scale ocean warming, do not appear to be a sufficient explanation for survival patterns in SNI black abalone. These data highlight the potential for natural recovery of abalone populations over time and that further understanding of mechanisms governing host-parasite relationships will better enable us to manage declining populations.

Reducing residual stresses and deformations in selective laser melting through multi-level multi-scale optimization of cellular scanning strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2016-01-01

. A multilevel optimization strategy is adopted using a customized genetic algorithm developed for optimizing cellular scanning strategy for selective laser melting, with an objective of reducing residual stresses and deformations. The resulting thermo-mechanically optimized cellular scanning strategies......, a calibrated, fast, multiscale thermal model coupled with a 3D finite element mechanical model is used to simulate residual stress formation and deformations during selective laser melting. The resulting reduction in thermal model computation time allows evolutionary algorithm-based optimization of the process...

Family size and expectations about housing in the later nineteenth century: three Yorkshire towns.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Paul

2011-01-01

This article illustrates how cultural history can deepen the understanding of demographic change, presenting evidence about ways in which rising working-class expectations about appropriate living standards may have created additional pressures on the perceived costs of child-rearing. Among the key areas of family consumption, housing costs are selected for examination. It is shown that higher expectations about appropriate housing quality put pressure on family budgets, augmented by the rising cost of like-for-like housing. The discussion considers expectations about the size of the dwelling and attitudes to furnishing the home, and suggests that these rising expectations helped encourage family limitation. Existing accounts of the fertility decline which stress the role of rising expectations are often too generalised: this article illustrates what can be gained by adding detail and geographical variation.

The expected greenhouse benefits from developing magma power at Long Valley, California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haraden, John.

1995-01-01

Magma power is the production of electricity from shallow magma bodies. Before magma becomes a practical source of power, many engineering problems must still be solved. When they are solved, the most likely site for the first magma power plant is Long Valley, California, USA. In this paper, we examine the greenhouse benefits from developing Long Valley. By generating magma power and by curtailing an equal amount of fossil power, we estimate the expected mass and the expected discounted value of reduced CO 2 emissions. For both measures, the expected benefits seem to be substantial. (author)

Best Practice Life Expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medford, Anthony

2017-01-01

been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

Estimation of expected value for lognormal and gamma distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, G.C.

1978-01-01

Concentrations of environmental pollutants tend to follow positively skewed frequency distributions. Two such density functions are the gamma and lognormal. Minimum variance unbiased estimators of the expected value for both densities are available. The small sample statistical properties of each of these estimators were compared for its own distribution, as well as the other distribution to check the robustness of the estimator. Results indicated that the arithmetic mean provides an unbiased estimator when the underlying density function of the sample is either lognormal or gamma, and that the achieved coverage of the confidence interval is greater than 75 percent for coefficients of variation less than two. Further Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to study the robustness of the above estimators by simulating a lognormal or gamma distribution with the expected value of a particular observation selected from a uniform distribution before the lognormal or gamma observation is generated. Again, the arithmetic mean provides an unbiased estimate of expected value, and the coverage of the confidence interval is greater than 75 percent for coefficients of variation less than two

Should We Use PPAR Agonists to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer G. Robinson

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Trials of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR agonists have shown mixed results for cardiovascular prevention. Fibrates are PPAR- agonists that act primarily to improve dyslipidemia. Based on low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL and HDL effects, gemfibrozil may be of greater cardiovascular benefit than expected, fenofibrate performed about as expected, and bezafibrate performed worse than expected. Increases in both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular serious adverse events have been observed with some fibrates. Thiazolidinediones (TZDs are PPAR- agonists used to improve impaired glucose metabolism but also influence lipids. Pioglitazone reduces atherosclerotic events in diabetic subjects, but has no net cardiovascular benefit due to increased congestive heart failure risk. Rosiglitazone may increase the risk of atherosclerotic events, and has a net harmful effect on the cardiovascular system when congestive heart failure is included. The primary benefit of TZDs appears to be the prevention of diabetic microvascular complications. Dual PPAR-/ agonists have had unacceptable adverse effects but more selective agents are in development. PPAR- and pan-agonists are also in development. It will be imperative to prove that future PPAR agonists not only prevent atherosclerotic events but also result in a net reduction on total cardiovascular events without significant noncardiovascular adverse effects with long-term use.

Maternal Expectations for Toddlers' Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiel, Elizabeth J; Buss, Kristin A

2010-07-03

OBJECTIVE: Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children's behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers' responses to novel situations. DESIGN: A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers' behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. RESULTS: Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers' observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. CONCLUSIONS: When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers' behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers' expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers' fearful behavior.

Maternal Expectations for Toddlers’ Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

2010-01-01

SYNOPSIS Objective Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children’s behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers’ responses to novel situations. Design A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers’ behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. Results Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers’ observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. Conclusions When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers’ behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers’ expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers’ fearful behavior. PMID:21037974

On subset selection from Logistic populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laan, van der P.

1990-01-01

Some distributional results are derived for subset selection from Logistic populations, differing only in their location parameter. The probability of correct selection is determined. Exact and numerical results concerning the expected subset size are presented.

Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian Zhang

2014-06-01

Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

Molecular evolution of the Bovini tribe (Bovidae, Bovinae: Is there evidence of rapid evolution or reduced selective constraint in Domestic cattle?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McCulloch Alan

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background If mutation within the coding region of the genome is largely not adaptive, the ratio of nonsynonymous (dN to synonymous substitutions (dS per site (dN/dS should be approximately equal among closely related species. Furthermore, dN/dS in divergence between species should be equivalent to dN/dS in polymorphisms. This hypothesis is of particular interest in closely related members of the Bovini tribe, because domestication has promoted rapid phenotypic divergence through strong artificial selection of some species while others remain undomesticated. We examined a number of genes that may be involved in milk production in Domestic cattle and a number of their wild relatives for evidence that domestication had affected molecular evolution. Elevated rates of dN/dS were further queried to determine if they were the result of positive selection, low effective population size (Ne or reduced selective constraint. Results We have found that the domestication process has contributed to higher dN/dS ratios in cattle, especially in the lineages leading to the Domestic cow (Bos taurus and Mithan (Bos frontalis and within some breeds of Domestic cow. However, the high rates of dN/dS polymorphism within B. taurus when compared to species divergence suggest that positive selection has not elevated evolutionary rates in these genes. Likewise, the low rate of dN/dS in Bison, which has undergone a recent population bottleneck, indicates a reduction in population size alone is not responsible for these observations. Conclusion The effect of selection depends on effective population size and the selection coefficient (Nes. Typically under domestication both selection pressure for traits important in fitness in the wild and Ne are reduced. Therefore, reduced selective constraint could be responsible for the observed elevated evolutionary ratios in domesticated species, especially in B. taurus and B. frontalis, which have the highest dN/dS in the

Reducing the negative human-health impacts of bioenergy crop emissions through region-specific crop selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, William C; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Barsanti, Kelley; Guenther, Alex; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2015-01-01

An expected global increase in bioenergy-crop cultivation as an alternative to fossil fuels will have consequences on both global climate and local air quality through changes in biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). While greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced through the substitution of next-generation bioenergy crops such as eucalyptus, giant reed, and switchgrass for fossil fuels, the choice of species has important ramifications for human health, potentially reducing the benefits of conversion due to increases in ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) levels as a result of large changes in biogenic emissions. Using the Community Earth System Model we simulate the conversion of marginal and underutilized croplands worldwide to bioenergy crops under varying future anthropogenic emissions scenarios. A conservative global replacement using high VOC-emitting crop profiles leads to modeled population-weighted O 3 increases of 5–27 ppb in India, 1–9 ppb in China, and 1–6 ppb in the United States, with peak PM 2.5 increases of up to 2 μg m −3 . We present a metric for the regional evaluation of candidate bioenergy crops, as well as results for the application of this metric to four representative emissions profiles using four replacement scales (10–100% maximum estimated available land). Finally, we assess the total health and climate impacts of biogenic emissions, finding that the negative consequences of using high-emitting crops could exceed 50% of the positive benefits of reduced fossil fuel emissions in value. (letter)

The Relationships Between Female Adolescents' Media Use, Indoor Tanning Outcome Expectations, and Behavioral Intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Myrick, Jessica Gall; Noar, Seth M; Kelley, Dannielle; Zeitany, Alexandra E

2017-06-01

Unlike other types of cancer, skin cancer incidence rates are on the rise and adolescent females are particularly likely to tan indoors, a major risk factor. However, little research has examined the role of media use in encouraging or discouraging this dangerous behavior in this population. To empirically assess the links between media use, indoor tanning-related outcome expectations, and behavioral intentions. A survey of adolescent females ( N = 510) ages 15 to 18 in the Southeastern United States assessed demographics, types of media use, and indoor tanning intentions. Significant correlations between media use and indoor tanning outcome expectations were found. Use of interpersonal and social media (i.e., talking on the phone, texting, and online social media) were positively associated with positive outcome expectations about indoor tanning and negatively associated with negative outcome expectations. A path analysis revealed that interpersonal/social media use had indirect associations with indoor tanning intentions via tanning outcome expectations. Mass media use (e.g., news media, entertainment media, and magazines) was not significantly associated with most indoor tanning outcome expectations but did have a direct negative association with behavioral intentions. There are important relationships between media use, indoor tanning outcome expectations, and behavioral intentions. Interpersonal and social media use may help cultivate outcome expectations that encourage indoor tanning, which in turn may increase intentions to tan, while news media consumption in particular may reduce intentions to tan. These findings highlight the social nature of adolescent females and point to specific intervention channels for reducing indoor tanning among this population.

Climate change and the expected impact in water resources in Albania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demiraj, Eglantina; Mucaj, Liri; Bicja, Mirela

2004-01-01

The climate change scenarios for Albania are prepared by using MAGICC/SCENGEN software, by CRU/UEA. MAGICC is run to calculate the global changes by using the mid- range IS92a emission scenario as the reference scenario and SRESA1, SRESA2, SRESB1 and SRESB2 as policy scenarios. SCENGEN is run using 6 of the available standardized GCM global warming patterns (HadCM2, UKTR, ECHAM4, CSIRO-TR, UIUC-EQ, GFDLLO). A composite pattern is constructed by using these 6 GSM altogether for each scenario. The climate change scenario for Albania leads to an annual increase in temperature up to 3.6 o C and decrease in precipitation to -12.5% by 2100 related to 1990. Severe summers with high temperatures (up to 4.10 o C) and low precipitation (up to -27%) are expected to meet over the territory that may cause negative or positive impacts. Autumn seems to play the second role in annual changes. Milder winters and warmer springs are expected as well. A decrease in the long term mean annual and seasonal runoff has to be expected for the whole territory and for three time horizons (years 2025, 2050, 2100). It would affect the surface water flow, reducing its amount. Under reduced surface flow and increased evaporation, the storage of reservoirs will decrease, which will effect the energy production by hydropower stations. Because of the reduction of stream flows in the wetlands, western part of Albania would experience both increasing demands for water and reduced supply of water, which would decrease wetland area. Other consequences of expected warming include not only changes in total water amount and levels, but also erosion of riverbeds, and modification of turbidity and sediment load. (Author)

Patient expectations and their satisfaction in the context of public hospitals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berhane A

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Adugnaw Berhane,1 Fikre Enquselassie2 1College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia; 2School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Background: Patient expectations have been recognized as a factor for patient satisfaction in medical consultations. Although various studies explored the relationship between patient expectations and patient satisfaction in developed countries, there is a lack of research evidence in Ethiopia where the meeting of patient expectations could relate to satisfaction.Objective: To assess the relationship between patients’ expectations and their satisfaction in the consultation of patients at the outpatient department.Study design: Data were collected regarding preconsultation expectations and postconsultation experiences of adult patients attending nine public hospitals. A systematic random sampling method was used where every fifth patient attending an outpatient department was selected. The patients were interviewed before consultation and after consulta­tion to assess whether their pre-consultation expectations were met and to assess how satisfied they were with the consultation. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was used to assess the reliability of the expectation questionnaires, and paired t-test was used to assess any differences between previsit expectations and postvisit experiences. Logistic regression techniques were used to assess variables considered as independent factors for patient satisfaction.Results: A total of 776 patients were interviewed, giving a response rate of 92.3%. About 93.7% mentioned a diagnosis for their condition as a reason for their current hospital visits. There is a significant difference between preconsultation expectation and postconsultation expectation. Postconsultation expectation, perceived health status, and perceived control on health were factors identified as increasing patient satisfaction. In addition, the presence of

Choosing Expected Shortfall Over VaR in Basel III Using Stochastic Dominance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); E. Maasoumi (Esfandiar); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

2016-01-01

textabstractWe compare Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) following a Stochastic Dominance (SD) approach frequently used to order distributions in terms of welfare and in portfolio selection. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) recommends bank risk managers to shift the

Promoting Physical Activity in Secondary Schools: Growing Expectations, "Same Old" Issues?

Science.gov (United States)

Cale, Lorraine; Harris, Jo; Duncombe, Rebecca

2016-01-01

There are growing expectations on schools to promote health and physical activity and helping schools to effectively do so is considered a priority. This paper reports on selected findings from a research project that was concerned with supporting secondary schools in the effective promotion of physical activity and establishing their needs in…

NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

OpenAIRE

Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

Selective Predation of a Stalking Predator on Ungulate Prey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Heurich

Full Text Available Prey selection is a key factor shaping animal populations and evolutionary dynamics. An optimal forager should target prey that offers the highest benefits in terms of energy content at the lowest costs. Predators are therefore expected to select for prey of optimal size. Stalking predators do not pursue their prey long, which may lead to a more random choice of prey individuals. Due to difficulties in assessing the composition of available prey populations, data on prey selection of stalking carnivores are still scarce. We show how the stalking predator Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx selects prey individuals based on species identity, age, sex and individual behaviour. To address the difficulties in assessing prey population structure, we confirm inferred selection patterns by using two independent data sets: (1 data of 387 documented kills of radio-collared lynx were compared to the prey population structure retrieved from systematic camera trapping using Manly's standardized selection ratio alpha and (2 data on 120 radio-collared roe deer were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Among the larger red deer prey, lynx selected against adult males-the largest and potentially most dangerous prey individuals. In roe deer lynx preyed selectively on males and did not select for a specific age class. Activity during high risk periods reduced the risk of falling victim to a lynx attack. Our results suggest that the stalking predator lynx actively selects for size, while prey behaviour induces selection by encounter and stalking success rates.

Customer experiences and expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morton, C. R.

1997-01-01

Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

Gender and ethnic health disparities among the elderly in rural Guangxi, China: estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tai Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Ethnic health inequalities for males and females among the elderly have not yet been verified in multicultural societies in developing countries. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of disparities in health expectancy among the elderly from different ethnic groups using quality-adjusted life expectancy. Design: A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted. A total of 6,511 rural elderly individuals aged ≥60 years were selected from eight different ethnic groups in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China and assessed for health-related quality of life (HRQoL. The HRQoL utility value was combined with life expectancy at age 60 years (LE60 data by using Sullivan's method to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy at age 60 years (QALE60 and loss in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs for each group. Results: Overall, LE60 and QALE60 for all ethnic groups were 20.9 and 18.0 years in men, respectively, and 24.2 and 20.3 years in women. The maximum gap in QALE60 between ethnic groups was 3.3 years in males and 4.6 years in females. The average loss in QALY was 2.9 years for men and 3.8 years for women. The correlation coefficient between LE60 and QALY lost was −0.53 in males and 0.12 in females. Conclusion: Women live longer than men, but they suffer more; men have a shorter life expectancy, but those who live longer are healthier. Attempts should be made to reduce suffering in the female elderly and improve longevity for men. Certain ethnic groups had low levels of QALE, needing special attention to improve their lifestyle and access to health care.

Subjective residual life expectancy in health self-regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2006-07-01

Applying socioemotional selectivity theory to the domain of health, we examined the interplay of social-cognitive predictors of physical exercise in two groups of people who perceived their remaining lifetime as either expansive or limited (based on subjective longevity ratings). Individuals (N = 370) who were prescribed physical exercise were assessed at discharge from orthopedic rehabilitation as well as 6 and 12 months later. Multigroup structural equation modeling showed differences in latent means, interrelations of predictors, and amount of explained variance. Individuals who perceived their time as limited reported a less favorable profile on social-cognitive variables and less exercise goal attainment. We give first insights on how health self-regulation differs in these groups, and we discuss avenues for intervention based on socioemotional selectivity theory. In contrast to chronological age, subjective life expectancy can be targeted by intervention.

Competing expectations. The case of the hydrogen car

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bakker, S.

2011-04-15

Firms and governments can support only a limited number of emerging technologies. Some emerging technologies receive support for further development while others are discarded. But how do decision makers in firms and governments assess which of the options earns their support? Straightforward assessments of prices and performance levels can not be sufficient as emerging technologies are, by definition, in an early stage of development and have not reached their maximum levels of performance yet. It is therefore not so much of interest which of the options performs best at any point in time, but rather which of the options will eventually perform best in the future. As a consequence, this competition is based on expectations about future price and performance levels. It is studied how both the relevant decision makers and the technology developers deal with these expectations about the different options. The development of the hydrogen car takes up a central position in this thesis. The hydrogen car is one of the contenders in the race towards 'the car of the future'. While the hydrogen car is indeed in competition with the other contenders there is also competition between different configurations of the hydrogen car. Expectations with regard to the different options are measured through patents, prototype cars, and statements from scientists and car manufacturers. From the research it shows that technology developers, the enactors, do not only try to shape positive expectations about their own option, but also negative expectations about their competitors. Technology selectors assess the credibility of the diverse expectations mainly on the basis of past progress and the possible paths forward towards higher levels of performance and lower prices. The roles of enactor and selector are interrelated and so is the process of enaction and selection. A main conclusion to this thesis is that selectors tend to narrow their portfolios in times of low general

The collision of masses and the way prices react to expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Chavez-Guzman, Luis

2004-12-01

When a body is impacted by other bodies its position is determined by the force of the impacts, likewise the price of a share is determined by expectations. This study intents to establish taxonomy of expectations based on the different types of impacts a body can receive, these can be: a blow without penetration, a blow that penetrates and stays in the body, a blow that goes through the body without affecting the body mass, and lastly, a blow that reduces but does not penetrate the body mass.

Facial attractiveness, sexual selection, and personnel selection : when evolved preferences matter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luxen, MF; Van de Vijver, FJR

Using an evolutionary perspective, we looked at sex differences in the influence of facial attractiveness of applicants in hiring decisions, and determined whether expected contact intensity with applicants and experience in personnel selection moderated this influence. We found effects of evolved

The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

To share or not to share? Expected pros and cons of data sharing in radiological research.

Science.gov (United States)

Sardanelli, Francesco; Alì, Marco; Hunink, Myriam G; Houssami, Nehmat; Sconfienza, Luca M; Di Leo, Giovanni

2018-06-01

The aims of this paper are to illustrate the trend towards data sharing, i.e. the regulated availability of the original patient-level data obtained during a study, and to discuss the expected advantages (pros) and disadvantages (cons) of data sharing in radiological research. Expected pros include the potential for verification of original results with alternative or supplementary analyses (including estimation of reproducibility), advancement of knowledge by providing new results by testing new hypotheses (not explored by the original authors) on pre-existing databases, larger scale analyses based on individual-patient data, enhanced multidisciplinary cooperation, reduced publication of false studies, improved clinical practice, and reduced cost and time for clinical research. Expected cons are outlined as the risk that the original authors could not exploit the entire potential of the data they obtained, possible failures in patients' privacy protection, technical barriers such as the lack of standard formats, and possible data misinterpretation. Finally, open issues regarding data ownership, the role of individual patients, advocacy groups and funding institutions in decision making about sharing of data and images are discussed. • Regulated availability of patient-level data of published clinical studies (data-sharing) is expected. • Expected benefits include verification/advancement of knowledge, reduced cost/time of research, clinical improvement. • Potential drawbacks include faults in patients' identity protection and data misinterpretation.

Reduced Pain Sensation and Reduced BOLD Signal in Parietofrontal Networks during Religious Prayer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elmholdt, Else-Marie; Skewes, Joshua Charles; Dietz, Martin

2017-01-01

Previous studies suggest that religious prayer can alter the experience of pain via expectation mechanisms. While brain processes related to other types of top-down modulation of pain have been studied extensively, no research has been conducted on the potential effects of active religious coping....... Here, we aimed at investigating the neural mechanisms during pain modulation by prayer and their dependency on the opioidergic system. Twenty-eight devout Protestants performed religious prayer and a secular contrast prayer during painful electrical stimulation in two fMRI sessions. Naloxone or saline...... was administered prior to scanning. Results show that pain intensity was reduced by 11% and pain unpleasantness by 26% during religious prayer compared to secular prayer. Expectancy predicted large amounts (70–89%) of the variance in pain intensity. Neuroimaging results revealed reduced neural activity during...

Conflict and expectancies interact to predict sexual behavior under the influence among gay and bisexual men

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Brooke E; Starks, Tyrel J; Parsons, Jeffrey T; Golub, Sarit

2013-01-01

As the mechanisms of the associations between substance use and risky sex remain unclear, this study investigates the interactive roles of conflicts about casual sex and condom use and expectancies of the sexual effects of substances in those associations among gay men. Conflict interacted with expectancies to predict sexual behavior under the influence; low casual sex conflict coupled with high expectancies predicted the highest number of casual partners, and high condom use conflict and high expectancies predicted the highest number of unprotected sex acts. Results have implications for intervention efforts that aim to improve sexual decision-making and reduce sexual expectancies. PMID:23584507

Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

Synthesis of reduced graphene oxide intercalated ZnO quantum dots nanoballs for selective biosensing detection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Jing; Zhao, Minggang, E-mail: zhaomg@ouc.edu.cn; Li, Yingchun; Fan, Sisi; Ding, Longjiang; Liang, Jingjing; Chen, Shougang, E-mail: sgchen@ouc.edu.cn

2016-07-15

Highlights: • A MWCNTs/rGO/ZnO quantum dots intercalation nanoballs decorated 3D hierarchical architecture is fabricated on Ni foam. • Large numbers of ZnO quantum dots are intercalated by rGO sheets to construct hierarchical nanoballs. • Improved mechanical, kinetic and electrochemical properties are found. • The strong interfacial effect makes the material can be used for selective detection of dopamine, ascorbic acid and uric acid. - Abstract: ZnO quantum dots (QDs), reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) are always used in sensors due to their excellent electrochemical characteristics. In this work, ZnO QDs were intercalated by rGO sheets with cross-linked MWCNTs to construct intercalation nanoballs. A MWCNTs/rGO/ZnO QDs 3D hierarchical architecture was fabricated on supporting Ni foam, which exhibited excellent mechanical, kinetic and electrochemical properties. The intercalation construction can introduce strong interfacial effects to improve the surface electronic state. The selectively determinate of uric acid, dopamine, and ascorbic acid by an electrode material using distinct applied potentials was realized.

Synthesis of reduced graphene oxide intercalated ZnO quantum dots nanoballs for selective biosensing detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jing; Zhao, Minggang; Li, Yingchun; Fan, Sisi; Ding, Longjiang; Liang, Jingjing; Chen, Shougang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A MWCNTs/rGO/ZnO quantum dots intercalation nanoballs decorated 3D hierarchical architecture is fabricated on Ni foam. • Large numbers of ZnO quantum dots are intercalated by rGO sheets to construct hierarchical nanoballs. • Improved mechanical, kinetic and electrochemical properties are found. • The strong interfacial effect makes the material can be used for selective detection of dopamine, ascorbic acid and uric acid. - Abstract: ZnO quantum dots (QDs), reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) are always used in sensors due to their excellent electrochemical characteristics. In this work, ZnO QDs were intercalated by rGO sheets with cross-linked MWCNTs to construct intercalation nanoballs. A MWCNTs/rGO/ZnO QDs 3D hierarchical architecture was fabricated on supporting Ni foam, which exhibited excellent mechanical, kinetic and electrochemical properties. The intercalation construction can introduce strong interfacial effects to improve the surface electronic state. The selectively determinate of uric acid, dopamine, and ascorbic acid by an electrode material using distinct applied potentials was realized.

The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Lee, Jinkook

these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, and a positive effect of these expectations on savings behavior. Surprisingly, we find no difference of this effect...... by wealth group, so it seems that Medicaid eligibility in the context of nursing home entry plays no factor in the decision to save....

Energy providers: customer expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pridham, N.F.

1997-01-01

The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

E.U.: better emission reduction than expected

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2010-01-01

The 15 countries that formed the European Union at the time of the Kyoto protocol implementation, compelled themselves to reduce by 8%, on average and per year for the 2008-2012 period and with reference to a standard year that was for most European countries 1990, their greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union has recently stated that the reduction will be better than expected and will reach 14.2% on average per year if the member states realize their projects concerning reforestation or the purchase of international carbon emission allowances. (A.C.)

Depressive symptoms, perceived stress, self-efficacy, and outcome expectations: Predict fitness among adolescents with obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Tulloch, Heather; Heenan, Adam; Sweet, Shane; Goldfield, Gary S; Kenny, Glen P; Alberga, Angela S; Sigal, Ronald J

2017-10-01

The objective of the present study was to test if outcome expectancy mediated the relationship between fitness and self-efficacy, perceived stress, and depressive symptoms.Adolescents with obesity ( n = 228) completed measures of perceived stress and depressive symptoms at baseline, self-efficacy and outcome expectancy at baseline and 3 months, and fitness at baseline and 6 months. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the data. Results showed that self-efficacy was positively associated with fitness via outcome expectancies. For females, fewer depressive symptoms were linked to fitness via self-efficacy and outcome expectancies. Exercise interventions that enhance exercise self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, and reduce depressive symptoms may increase fitness.

Infants' preferences for native speakers are associated with an expectation of information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Begus, Katarina; Gliga, Teodora; Southgate, Victoria

2016-01-01

Humans' preference for others who share our group membership is well documented, and this heightened valuation of in-group members seems to be rooted in early development. Before 12 mo of age, infants already show behavioral preferences for others who evidence cues to same-group membership...... such as race or native language, yet the function of this selectivity remains unclear. We examine one of these social biases, the preference for native speakers, and propose that this preference may result from infants' motivation to obtain information and the expectation that interactions with native speakers...... in situations when they can expect to receive information. We then used this neural measure of anticipatory theta activity to explore the expectations of 11-mo-olds when facing social partners who either speak the infants' native language or a foreign tongue (study 2). A larger increase in theta oscillations...

Effect of efferent activation on binaural frequency selectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhey, Jesko L; Kordus, Monika; Drga, Vit; Yasin, Ifat

2017-07-01

Binaural notched-noise experiments indicate a reduced frequency selectivity of the binaural system compared to monaural processing. The present study investigates how auditory efferent activation (via the medial olivocochlear system) affects binaural frequency selectivity in normal-hearing listeners. Thresholds were measured for a 1-kHz signal embedded in a diotic notched-noise masker for various notch widths. The signal was either presented in phase (diotic) or in antiphase (dichotic), gated with the noise. Stimulus duration was 25 ms, in order to avoid efferent activation due to the masker or the signal. A bandpass-filtered noise precursor was presented prior to the masker and signal stimuli to activate the efferent system. The silent interval between the precursor and the masker-signal complex was 50 ms. For comparison, thresholds for detectability of the masked signal were also measured in a baseline condition without the precursor and, in addition, without the masker. On average, the results of the baseline condition indicate an effectively wider binaural filter, as expected. For both signal phases, the addition of the precursor results in effectively wider filters, which is in agreement with the hypothesis that cochlear gain is reduced due to the presence of the precursor. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expectant versus aggressive management in severe preeclampsia remote from term.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarsam, D S; Shamden, M; Al Wazan, R

2008-09-01

Our study aims to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes between expectant (or conservative) and aggressive (or immediate) management in cases with severe preclampsia remote from term. This is a comparative study conducted at Al-Batool Teaching Hospital in Mosul City, Iraq, from April 2003 to August 2004. A total of 74 singleton pregnancies complicated by severe preeclampsia with gestational age of 24-34 weeks were studied during this period. The criteria used for the diagnosis of severe preeclampsia were in accordance with the guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. All the patients were counselled for expectant management. 39 patients were delivered immediately due to refusal of expectant management either by the patient or the attending physician. The other 35 patients were managed expectantly; this group was followed-up and carefully monitored for a period ranging from 72 hours to 18 days. Neonatal parameters, neonatal outcome and maternal outcome were compared between the two groups. The mean value of pregnancy prolongation was 9.2 days. Median gestational age for the first group was 29 weeks, and for the second group, it was 30 weeks. Regarding neonatal parameters, the expectantly-managed group had a higher Apgar score at one minute (3.56 +/- 1.72 vs. 5.05 +/- 1.77, p-value equals 0.001), lower mean days of hospitalisation in the neonatal intensive care unit (6.83 +/- 5.38 vs. 4.50 +/- 3.46, p-value equals 0.03), with a lower incidence of neonatal and maternal complications. Expectant management is recommended in patients with severe preeclampsia remote from term, after proper selection of patients and careful monitoring.

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

2017-07-19

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

Does the cause of the mild traumatic brain injury affect the expectation of persistent postconcussion symptoms and psychological trauma?

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Sullivan, Karen A; Wade, Christina

2017-05-01

A controlled experiment of the effect of injury cause on expectations of outcome from mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) was conducted. Ninety-three participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions. The participants read a vignette that described a mild TBI (with fixed injury parameters) from a different cause (sport, domestic assault, fall, or motor vehicle accident). The effect of the manipulation on expectations of persistent postconcussion symptoms and psychological trauma was assessed with standard measures and a novel "threat-to-life" measure. The Kruskal-Wallis H test for group differences revealed a significant but selective effect of group on symptom and trauma outcomes (ŋ 2 s ≥ .10; large effects). Post hoc pairwise tests showed that, in most cases, there was an expectation of a worse outcome following mild TBI from a domestic assault than from the other causes (small-to-medium effects). Expectations were selectively altered by an experimental manipulation of injury cause. Given that expectations of outcome are known to affect mild TBI prognosis, the findings suggest the need for greater attention to injury cause.

Belief Shift or Only Facilitation: How Semantic Expectancy Affects Processing of Speech Degraded by Background Noise.

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Simeon, Katherine M; Bicknell, Klinton; Grieco-Calub, Tina M

2018-01-01

Individuals use semantic expectancy - applying conceptual and linguistic knowledge to speech input - to improve the accuracy and speed of language comprehension. This study tested how adults use semantic expectancy in quiet and in the presence of speech-shaped broadband noise at -7 and -12 dB signal-to-noise ratio. Twenty-four adults (22.1 ± 3.6 years, mean ± SD ) were tested on a four-alternative-forced-choice task whereby they listened to sentences and were instructed to select an image matching the sentence-final word. The semantic expectancy of the sentences was unrelated to (neutral), congruent with, or conflicting with the acoustic target. Congruent expectancy improved accuracy and conflicting expectancy decreased accuracy relative to neutral, consistent with a theory where expectancy shifts beliefs toward likely words and away from unlikely words. Additionally, there were no significant interactions of expectancy and noise level when analyzed in log-odds, supporting the predictions of ideal observer models of speech perception.

AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gherai Dana Simona

2011-12-01

between level of knowledge of the students regarding the statements in audit and the expectation gap. Also there is a significant difference in perceptions of the role of the public auditor in respect of fraud detection. The research will be extended to other users of accounting information (accountants, executives, managers, bankers to see their understanding of the role of external public auditors, this we consider Originality/value – This paper adds evidence to the important debate about expectation gap from a region that has had little coverage. In Romania are just a few information regarding the importance of education in reducing the audit expectation gap in public area. We try to draw attention in two sectors that are left one side, education and public domain. A correlation between these two, in the context of audit expectation gap will give some answers absolutely necessary.

Reading: Great Expectations. Proceedings of the Annual Reading Conference (11th, Terre Haute, Indiana, June 11-12, 1981).

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Gibbs, Vanita M., Comp.; Pabst, Robert L., Comp.

One of a series of publications on selected aspects of reading curriculum development, this monograph contains eight papers that deal with expectations in the teaching of reading. Topics covered include (1) the relationship between reading and writing, (2) changing expectations in education, (3) skills programs for remedial readers, (4) ways to…

Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste

2010-01-01

A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

Selective Strolls: Fixation and Extinction in Diploids Are Slower for Weakly Selected Mutations Than for Neutral Ones.

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Mafessoni, Fabrizio; Lachmann, Michael

2015-12-01

In finite populations, an allele disappears or reaches fixation due to two main forces, selection and drift. Selection is generally thought to accelerate the process: a selected mutation will reach fixation faster than a neutral one, and a disadvantageous one will quickly disappear from the population. We show that even in simple diploid populations, this is often not true. Dominance and recessivity unexpectedly slow down the evolutionary process for weakly selected alleles. In particular, slightly advantageous dominant and mildly deleterious recessive mutations reach fixation slightly more slowly than neutral ones (at most 5%). This phenomenon determines genetic signatures opposite to those expected under strong selection, such as increased instead of decreased genetic diversity around the selected site. Furthermore, we characterize a new phenomenon: mildly deleterious recessive alleles, thought to represent a wide fraction of newly arising mutations, on average survive in a population slightly longer than neutral ones, before getting lost. Consequently, these mutations are on average slightly older than neutral ones, in contrast with previous expectations. Furthermore, they slightly increase the amount of weakly deleterious polymorphisms, as a consequence of the longer unconditional sojourn times compared to neutral mutations. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Cannabis expectancies in substance misusers: French validation of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire.

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Guillem, Eric; Notides, Christine; Vorspan, Florence; Debray, Marcel; Nieto, Isabel; Leroux, Mayliss; Lépine, Jean-Pierre

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire (48 items) and study the cannabis expectancies according to the patterns of substance use and psychiatric disorders (DSM-IV). A sample of 263 subjects (average age 33.1 years [SD = 8.7], 56% men) consisting of cannabis users (n = 64), psychiatric inpatients (n = 175, most of whom were hospitalized for withdrawal), and a control group (n = 24) completed the questionnaire. Internal reliability was good (α= .87) and temporal reliability was satisfactory, with 24 of 48 items having a significant κ ≥ .41. Factor analysis showed four main factors that explained 42.1% of the total variance. The women feared Cognitive Impairment and Negative Effects, and Negative Behavioral Effects more than the men. The onset age of cannabis use, onset age of abuse, abuse and dependence were associated with fewer negative expectancies. Cannabis dependents differed from abusers by more Relaxation and Social Facilitation expectancies. Patients with major depressive episodes, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder feared negative effects the most. Schizophrenic patients expected more Perceptual Enhancement and Craving. The French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire has good psychometric properties and is valid to assess cannabis expectancies in adolescents and adults with substance use disorders. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Treatment non-response: Associations with smoking expectancies among treatment-seeking smokers.

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Garey, Lorra; Taha, Samar A; Kauffman, Brooke Y; Manning, Kara F; Neighbors, Clayton; Schmidt, Norman B; Zvolensky, Michael J

2017-10-01

Despite the high rate of smoking cessation treatment non-response, relatively little empirical work has examined predictors of treatment non-response. The present study sought to explore the effect of smoking outcome expectancies on treatment response in a sample of treatment-seeking adult daily smokers (N=182; 53.3% female; M age =40.67; SD=13.63). Results indicated that expectancies for smoking to reduce negative affect were related to an increased likelihood of treatment non-response (OR=0.73, CI: 0.54, 0.98). These findings remained significant after controlling for sex, presence of Axis I disorder, tobacco-related health problems, tobacco dependence, anxiety sensitivity, and condition assignment as well as other smoking expectancy dimensions. Post hoc analyses revealed that this relation was stronger for smokers in the integrated care condition vs. the standard care condition (Interaction: OR=1.69, CI: 1.05, 2.73). Additionally, expectancies for smoking to enhance positive affect and provide sensory satisfaction were associated with an increased likelihood of treatment response in the standard care condition. The current findings suggest expectancies that smoking will alleviate negative affect may be a risk factor of smoking cessation treatment non-response. Additionally, findings provide evidence that the relation between smoking expectancies and treatment non-response may differ by smoking cessation treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Great Expectations: How Role Expectations and Role Experiences Relate to Perceptions of Group Cohesion.

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Benson, Alex J; Eys, Mark A; Irving, P Gregory

2016-04-01

Many athletes experience a discrepancy between the roles they expect to fulfill and the roles they eventually occupy. Drawing from met expectations theory, we applied response surface methodology to examine how role expectations, in relation to role experiences, influence perceptions of group cohesion among Canadian Interuniversity Sport athletes (N = 153). On the basis of data from two time points, as athletes approached and exceeded their role contribution expectations, they reported higher perceptions of task cohesion. Furthermore, as athletes approached and exceeded their social involvement expectations, they reported higher perceptions of social cohesion. These response surface patterns-pertaining to task and social cohesion-were driven by the positive influence of role experiences. On the basis of the interplay between athletes' role experiences and their perception of the group environment, efforts to improve team dynamics may benefit from focusing on improving the quality of role experiences, in conjunction with developing realistic role expectations.

Selecting Items for Criterion-Referenced Tests.

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Mellenbergh, Gideon J.; van der Linden, Wim J.

1982-01-01

Three item selection methods for criterion-referenced tests are examined: the classical theory of item difficulty and item-test correlation; the latent trait theory of item characteristic curves; and a decision-theoretic approach for optimal item selection. Item contribution to the standardized expected utility of mastery testing is discussed. (CM)

Validation of candidate gene markers for marker-assisted selection of potato cultivars with improved tuber quality.

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Li, Li; Tacke, Eckhard; Hofferbert, Hans-Reinhardt; Lübeck, Jens; Strahwald, Josef; Draffehn, Astrid M; Walkemeier, Birgit; Gebhardt, Christiane

2013-04-01

Tuber yield, starch content, starch yield and chip color are complex traits that are important for industrial uses and food processing of potato. Chip color depends on the quantity of reducing sugars glucose and fructose in the tubers, which are generated by starch degradation. Reducing sugars accumulate when tubers are stored at low temperatures. Early and efficient selection of cultivars with superior yield, starch yield and chip color is hampered by the fact that reliable phenotypic selection requires multiple year and location trials. Application of DNA-based markers early in the breeding cycle, which are diagnostic for superior alleles of genes that control natural variation of tuber quality, will reduce the number of clones to be evaluated in field trials. Association mapping using genes functional in carbohydrate metabolism as markers has discovered alleles of invertases and starch phosphorylases that are associated with tuber quality traits. Here, we report on new DNA variants at loci encoding ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase and the invertase Pain-1, which are associated with positive or negative effect with chip color, tuber starch content and starch yield. Marker-assisted selection (MAS) and marker validation were performed in tetraploid breeding populations, using various combinations of 11 allele-specific markers associated with tuber quality traits. To facilitate MAS, user-friendly PCR assays were developed for specific candidate gene alleles. In a multi-parental population of advanced breeding clones, genotypes were selected for having different combinations of five positive and the corresponding negative marker alleles. Genotypes combining five positive marker alleles performed on average better than genotypes with four negative alleles and one positive allele. When tested individually, seven of eight markers showed an effect on at least one quality trait. The direction of effect was as expected. Combinations of two to three marker alleles were

Influence of BMI and dietary restraint on self-selected portions of prepared meals in US women.

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Labbe, David; Rytz, Andréas; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Forde, Ciarán G; Martin, Nathalie

2017-04-01

The rise of obesity prevalence has been attributed in part to an increase in food and beverage portion sizes selected and consumed among overweight and obese consumers. Nevertheless, evidence from observations of adults is mixed and contradictory findings might reflect the use of small or unrepresentative samples. The objective of this study was i) to determine the extent to which BMI and dietary restraint predict self-selected portion sizes for a range of commercially available prepared savoury meals and ii) to consider the importance of these variables relative to two previously established predictors of portion selection, expected satiation and expected liking. A representative sample of female consumers (N = 300, range 18-55 years) evaluated 15 frozen savoury prepared meals. For each meal, participants rated their expected satiation and expected liking, and selected their ideal portion using a previously validated computer-based task. Dietary restraint was quantified using the Dutch Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (DEBQ-R). Hierarchical multiple regression was performed on self-selected portions with age, hunger level, and meal familiarity entered as control variables in the first step of the model, expected satiation and expected liking as predictor variables in the second step, and DEBQ-R and BMI as exploratory predictor variables in the third step. The second and third steps significantly explained variance in portion size selection (18% and 4%, respectively). Larger portion selections were significantly associated with lower dietary restraint and with lower expected satiation. There was a positive relationship between BMI and portion size selection (p = 0.06) and between expected liking and portion size selection (p = 0.06). Our discussion considers future research directions, the limited variance explained by our model, and the potential for portion size underreporting by overweight participants. Copyright © 2016 Nestec S.A. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Selecting Question-Specific Genes to Reduce Incongruence in Phylogenomics: A Case Study of Jawed Vertebrate Backbone Phylogeny.

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Chen, Meng-Yun; Liang, Dan; Zhang, Peng

2015-11-01

Incongruence between different phylogenomic analyses is the main challenge faced by phylogeneticists in the genomic era. To reduce incongruence, phylogenomic studies normally adopt some data filtering approaches, such as reducing missing data or using slowly evolving genes, to improve the signal quality of data. Here, we assembled a phylogenomic data set of 58 jawed vertebrate taxa and 4682 genes to investigate the backbone phylogeny of jawed vertebrates under both concatenation and coalescent-based frameworks. To evaluate the efficiency of extracting phylogenetic signals among different data filtering methods, we chose six highly intractable internodes within the backbone phylogeny of jawed vertebrates as our test questions. We found that our phylogenomic data set exhibits substantial conflicting signal among genes for these questions. Our analyses showed that non-specific data sets that are generated without bias toward specific questions are not sufficient to produce consistent results when there are several difficult nodes within a phylogeny. Moreover, phylogenetic accuracy based on non-specific data is considerably influenced by the size of data and the choice of tree inference methods. To address such incongruences, we selected genes that resolve a given internode but not the entire phylogeny. Notably, not only can this strategy yield correct relationships for the question, but it also reduces inconsistency associated with data sizes and inference methods. Our study highlights the importance of gene selection in phylogenomic analyses, suggesting that simply using a large amount of data cannot guarantee correct results. Constructing question-specific data sets may be more powerful for resolving problematic nodes. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Studies on total polyphenols and reducing power of aqueous extracts from selected lamiaceae species

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Maria Cioroi

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Certain phytochemicals in species are attracting increased attention because of a wide range of biological activities especially the possible cancer preventive properties. Polyphenols, the naturalantioxidants are present in plant extracts and they play a key role in antioxidative defence mechanisms in biological systems and they act as free radicals scavenging agents. Polyphenols might thereforeinhibit development of coronary heart disease and cancers. Basil, oregano and sage are highly fragrant plants whose leaves are used as a seasoning herb for many different types of foods. Aqueous extractswere prepared from basil (Ocimum basilicum L., oregano (Origanum vulgare L. and sage (Salvia officinalis L.. To check the phenols presence, the UV-VIS spectrum was made. The amount of polyphenolic compounds from selected Lamiaceae species was determined by spectrophotometry method using the Folin - Ciocalteau reagent and gallic acid as standard. The range of polyphenols total was between 516,352 mg/100g dried species and 859,617 mg/100g dried species.Reducing power has been established by measuring the redox potential of aqueous extracts. Antioxidant activity was directly correlated with the total amount of polyphenols in the species extracts.The free reducing sugars in aqueous extracts from species were analyzed and correlated to the total content of polyphenols.

Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

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Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

2007-06-01

The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014.

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Sundberg, Louise; Agahi, Neda; Fritzell, Johan; Fors, Stefan

2018-04-13

To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy. We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death. Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy. This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

Future Expectations, Attitude Toward Violence, and Bullying Perpetration During Early Adolescence: A Mediation Evaluation.

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Stoddard, Sarah A; Varela, Jorge J; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-01-01

Hopeful future expectations have been linked to positive developmental outcomes in adolescence; however, the association between future expectations and bullying perpetration has received less attention. We examined the relationship between future expectations and physical and relational bullying perpetration and tested a mediation model that linked future expectations with bullying through attitude toward violence. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationship between future expectations and bullying perpetration (relational and physical) and to test whether these relationships were mediated by attitude toward violence in a sample of U.S. seventh-grade students (Mage = 12.86 years, N = 196, 60% female, 46% African American). Attitude toward violence fully mediated the relationship between future expectations and physical bullying (indirect effects = -0.08, 95% CI [-0.15, -0.01], R = .17). The relationship between future expectations and relational bullying was partially mediated by attitudes toward violence (indirect effects = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.002], R = .20). Our findings suggest that future expectations can play a role in reducing attitude toward violence and physical and relational bullying perpetration among youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in bullying prevention efforts.

Sex and life expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

2012-12-01

A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

Empirical Assessment of Expectations Associated with the Recent Discovery of Commercialisable Oil in Ghana

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Kwarteng Ernest

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The paper aim at assessing empirically the various expectations held by people in the economy in the face of oil revenue in order to contribute to the body of knowledge that exist in expectation formation. The study is based on descriptive quantitative survey of students in first and third year marketing department of Sunyani Polytechnic offering Higher National Diploma programme. A sample size of 70 respondents was used and was selected using non probability (convenience sampling method. Questionnaires were prepared using the Likert scale and were distributed to the students. Data were analysed using SPSS and the result presented in tables. Results indicate that respondents hold mixed expectation in the face of the oil revenue. There was gender, age, religion, employment differences in some of the expectations held by respondents. Future research should look at issues such as why there are these differences in opinions and the effect of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, GDP on public confidence as well as ways of managing these expectations.

Monitoring treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator using the EXPECT-ICD scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Habibovic, Mirela; Pedersen, Susanne S.; van den Broek, Krista C

2014-01-01

AIMS: Patient treatment expectations may affect cardiac outcomes; however, till date, no validated instruments have been developed to monitor treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). This study evaluates the predictive value of the newly developed 10...... with a two-factor model involving both negative (α = 0.84) and positive expectations (α = 0.77) with a score range of 0-20 for each factor. Negative treatment expectations were associated with higher levels of anxiety (β = 0.443; P ...-item EXPECtations Towards ICD therapy (EXPECT-ICD) in relation to anxiety, depression, and ICD related concerns 3 months post-implant.METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive implanted ICD patients were included as part of the WEB-based distress management programme for ICD patients (WEBCARE) trial from six...

Anomalous vacuum expectation values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, H.

1986-01-01

The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

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Seaman, R; Mitchell, R; Dundas, R; Leyland, A H; Popham, F

2015-10-16

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy. Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method. Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation

The promise of prevention: the effects of four preventable risk factors on national life expectancy and life expectancy disparities by race and county in the United States.

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Goodarz Danaei

2010-03-01

Full Text Available There has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the "Eight Americas" defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005.We combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age-sex-disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP. SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South--5-7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y. Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18% in men and 0.45 y (21% in women if these risks

Expectations of youth victims of violence regarding health care professionals leading them to wellness in South Africa

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Ezihe L. Ahanonu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Many youth victims of violence report for treatment at the health care facilities in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. It was unclear what the youth expected regarding how they could be led towards wellness by health care professionals following an incident of violence (R1.1. Objectives: This study sought to explore and describe the expectations of the youth victims of violence with regards to health care professionals (R1.2 leading them to wellness in a selected rural community. Method: A qualitative, exploratory, descriptive and contextual design was used. Nine focus group discussions were conducted with 58 (23 males, 35 females purposefully selected youth victims of violence between the ages of 15 and 19. Data analysis was done through open coding. Ethics clearance was received from the University Ethics Committee prior to the study being conducted. Results: Findings indicated that the youth victims of violence expect the health care professionals (professional nurses, doctors and social workers working in their community to act as role models, demonstrate a professional attitude, provide health education, provide confidential counselling services, and establish school and community outreach programmes. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that youth victims of violence have important expectations from health care professionals concerning their wellness. Hence, health care professionals should focus on designing and implementing interventions targeting these expectations.

Health students’ expectations of the ideal educational environment: a qualitative research

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TEAMUR AGHAMOLAEI

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Educational environment is an important determinant of students’ behavior and its elements are associated with academic achievement and course satisfaction. The aim of this study was to determine students’ expectations of the ideal educational environment. Methods: This was a qualitative study with content analysis approach. Using a theoretical sampling method, we selected eight students from Health School of Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, studying health education, public health, environmental health, occupational health and medical entomology. To collect data, semi-structured interviews were used and continued until reaching data saturation. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the data. Results: Students' expectations of the ideal educational environment emerged in four main themes including school atmosphere, teaching, human aspects (with three subthemes including teachers, students, and school staff and nonhuman aspects (with two subthemes including educational equipment and physical environment. Conclusion: Educational environment is a multidimensional issue and to achieve an ideal educational environment, educational planners should meet the students' expectations of the school atmosphere, teaching, teachers, students, school staff, educational equipment and physical environment.

Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

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Kirsch, Irving

2018-01-01

In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection and placement of best management practices used to reduce water quality degradation in Lincoln Lake watershed

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Rodriguez, Hector German; Popp, Jennie; Maringanti, Chetan; Chaubey, Indrajeet

2011-01-01

An increased loss of agricultural nutrients is a growing concern for water quality in Arkansas. Several studies have shown that best management practices (BMPs) are effective in controlling water pollution. However, those affected with water quality issues need water management plans that take into consideration BMPs selection, placement, and affordability. This study used a nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). This multiobjective algorithm selects and locates BMPs that minimize nutrients pollution cost-effectively by providing trade-off curves (optimal fronts) between pollutant reduction and total net cost increase. The usefulness of this optimization framework was evaluated in the Lincoln Lake watershed. The final NSGA-II optimization model generated a number of near-optimal solutions by selecting from 35 BMPs (combinations of pasture management, buffer zones, and poultry litter application practices). Selection and placement of BMPs were analyzed under various cost solutions. The NSGA-II provides multiple solutions that could fit the water management plan for the watershed. For instance, by implementing all the BMP combinations recommended in the lowest-cost solution, total phosphorous (TP) could be reduced by at least 76% while increasing cost by less than 2% in the entire watershed. This value represents an increase in cost of 5.49 ha-1 when compared to the baseline. Implementing all the BMP combinations proposed with the medium- and the highest-cost solutions could decrease TP drastically but will increase cost by 24,282 (7%) and $82,306 (25%), respectively.

Toward efficient computation of the expected relative entropy for nonlinear experimental design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, Darrell; Prange, Michael

2012-01-01

The expected relative entropy between prior and posterior model-parameter distributions is a Bayesian objective function in experimental design theory that quantifies the expected gain in information of an experiment relative to a previous state of knowledge. The expected relative entropy is a preferred measure of experimental quality because it can handle nonlinear data-model relationships, an important fact due to the ubiquity of nonlinearity in science and engineering and its effects on post-inversion parameter uncertainty. This objective function does not necessarily yield experiments that mediate well-determined systems, but, being a Bayesian quality measure, it rigorously accounts for prior information which constrains model parameters that may be only weakly constrained by the optimized dataset. Historically, use of the expected relative entropy has been limited by the computing and storage requirements associated with high-dimensional numerical integration. Herein, a bifocal algorithm is developed that makes these computations more efficient. The algorithm is demonstrated on a medium-sized problem of sampling relaxation phenomena and on a large problem of source–receiver selection for a 2D vertical seismic profile. The method is memory intensive but workarounds are discussed. (paper)

Guidance levels, achievable doses and expectation levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Lianbo; Meng, Bing

2002-01-01

The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) published their guidance levels and reference doses for typical X-ray examination and nuclear medicine in their documents in 1993, 1994 and 1996 respectively. From then on, the concept of guidance levels or reference doses have been applied to different examinations in the field of radiology and proved to be effective for reduction of patient doses. But the guidance levels or reference doses are likely to have some shortcomings and can do little to make further reduction of patient dose in the radiology departments where patient dose are already below them. For this reason, the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) proposed a concept named achievable doses which are based on the mean dose observed for a selected sample of radiology departments. This paper will review and discuss the concept of guidance levels and achievable doses, and propose a new concept referred to as Expectation Levels that will encourage the radiology departments where patient dose are already below the guidance levels to keep patient dose as low as reasonably achievable. Some examples of the expectation levels based on the data published by a few countries are also illustrated in this paper

Effectiveness of a Selective Advising Program in Reducing the Degree of Compulsive Buying Behavior among Umm Al-Qura Female Students

Science.gov (United States)

Basyouni, Sawzan S.

2018-01-01

The present study is an attempt to investigate the effectiveness of a selective advising program in reducing the degree of Compulsive Buying Behavior among female students, Faculty of Education at Umm al-Qura University. The sample consisted of (200) female students to verify the validity and reliability of the tool. The quasi-experimental method…

Reducing Variation in the Assessment of Student Writing

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Kerry; Docherty, Peter

2011-01-01

This paper extends the literature on grader variation and the role of moderation and socialisation processes in reducing this variation. It offers a fresh categorisation of academics' assessment beliefs and expectations, and uses this categorisation to analyse the interaction between implicit and explicit expectations in relation to grader…

Morphology, structural properties and reducibility of size-selected CeO2−x nanoparticle films

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Chiara Spadaro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Non-stoichiometric ceria nanoparticles (NPs were obtained by a gas aggregation source with a magnetron and were mass-selected with a quadrupole mass filter. By varying magnetron power, Ar gas flow, and the length of the aggregation tube, NPs with an average diameter of 6, 9, and 14 nm were synthesized and deposited onto a substrate, thus obtaining NP films. The morphology of the films was studied with scanning electron microscopy, while high resolution transmission electron microscopy was used to gain a deeper insight into the atomic structure of individual NPs. By using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy we analyzed the degree of reduction of the NPs of different diameters, before and after thermal treatments in vacuum (reduction cycle and in O2 atmosphere (oxidation cycle at different temperatures. From this analysis we inferred that the size is an important parameter only at intermediate temperatures. As a comparison, we evaluated the reducibility of an ultra-thin ceria film with the same surface to volume ratio as the 9 nm diameter NPs film, observing that NPs are more reducible than the ceria film.

Internet addiction: coping styles, expectancies, and treatment implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Matthias; Laier, Christian; Young, Kimberly S

2014-01-01

Internet addiction (IA) has become a serious mental health condition in many countries. To better understand the clinical implications of IA, this study tested statistically a new theoretical model illustrating underlying cognitive mechanisms contributing to development and maintenance of the disorder. The model differentiates between a generalized Internet addiction (GIA) and specific forms. This study tested the model on GIA on a population of general Internet users. The findings from 1019 users show that the hypothesized structural equation model explained 63.5% of the variance of GIA symptoms, as measured by the short version of the Internet Addiction Test. Using psychological and personality testing, the results show that a person's specific cognitions (poor coping and cognitive expectations) increased the risk for GIA. These two factors mediated the symptoms of GIA if other risk factors were present such as depression, social anxiety, low self-esteem, low self-efficacy, and high stress vulnerability to name a few areas that were measured in the study. The model shows that individuals with high coping skills and no expectancies that the Internet can be used to increase positive or reduce negative mood are less likely to engage in problematic Internet use, even when other personality or psychological vulnerabilities are present. The implications for treatment include a clear cognitive component to the development of GIA and the need to assess a patient's coping style and cognitions and improve faulty thinking to reduce symptoms and engage in recovery.

Internet addiction: coping styles, expectancies, and treatment implications

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Matthias; Laier, Christian; Young, Kimberly S.

2014-01-01

Internet addiction (IA) has become a serious mental health condition in many countries. To better understand the clinical implications of IA, this study tested statistically a new theoretical model illustrating underlying cognitive mechanisms contributing to development and maintenance of the disorder. The model differentiates between a generalized Internet addiction (GIA) and specific forms. This study tested the model on GIA on a population of general Internet users. The findings from 1019 users show that the hypothesized structural equation model explained 63.5% of the variance of GIA symptoms, as measured by the short version of the Internet Addiction Test. Using psychological and personality testing, the results show that a person’s specific cognitions (poor coping and cognitive expectations) increased the risk for GIA. These two factors mediated the symptoms of GIA if other risk factors were present such as depression, social anxiety, low self-esteem, low self-efficacy, and high stress vulnerability to name a few areas that were measured in the study. The model shows that individuals with high coping skills and no expectancies that the Internet can be used to increase positive or reduce negative mood are less likely to engage in problematic Internet use, even when other personality or psychological vulnerabilities are present. The implications for treatment include a clear cognitive component to the development of GIA and the need to assess a patient’s coping style and cognitions and improve faulty thinking to reduce symptoms and engage in recovery. PMID:25426088

Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behavior?

OpenAIRE

Valerie Lechene; Jéróme Adda

2001-01-01

This paper proposes a joint model of tobacco consumption and mortality over the life-cycle. The decision to smoke is a trade off between current utility derived from smoking and a mortality risk increasing with age. Individuals with a longer potential life expectancy have more incentive to cut back on smoking and thus self select out of smoking. Using detailed data on mortality, morbidity and smoking we are able to identify this selection effect. We empirically evaluate its importance in expl...

Selective phase masking to reduce material saturation in holographic data storage systems

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Seth; Fair, Ivan

2014-09-01

Emerging networks and applications require enormous data storage. Holographic techniques promise high-capacity storage, given resolution of a few remaining technical issues. In this paper, we propose a technique to overcome one such issue: mitigation of large magnitude peaks in the stored image that cause material saturation resulting in readout errors. We consider the use of ternary data symbols, with modulation in amplitude and phase, and use a phase mask during the encoding stage to reduce the probability of large peaks arising in the stored Fourier domain image. An appropriate mask is selected from a predefined set of pseudo-random masks by computing the Fourier transform of the raw data array as well as the data array multiplied by each mask. The data array or masked array with the lowest Fourier domain peak values is recorded. On readout, the recorded array is multiplied by the mask used during recording to recover the original data array. Simulations are presented that demonstrate the benefit of this approach, and provide insight into the appropriate number of phase masks to use in high capacity holographic data storage systems.

Expectancies for cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and nicotine replacement therapies among e-cigarette users (aka vapers).

Science.gov (United States)

Harrell, Paul T; Marquinez, Nicole S; Correa, John B; Meltzer, Lauren R; Unrod, Marina; Sutton, Steven K; Simmons, Vani N; Brandon, Thomas H

2015-02-01

Use of e-cigarettes has been increasing exponentially, with the primary motivation reported as smoking cessation. To understand why smokers choose e-cigarettes as an alternative to cigarettes, as well as to US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)--approved nicotine replacement therapies (NRT), we compared outcome expectancies (beliefs about the results of drug use) for the three nicotine delivery systems among vapers, i.e., e-cigarette users, who were former smokers. Vapers (N = 1,434) completed an online survey assessing 14 expectancy domains as well as perceived cost and convenience. We focused on comparisons between e-cigarettes and cigarettes to determine the attraction of e-cigarettes as a smoking alternative and between e-cigarettes and NRT to determine perceived advantages of e-cigarettes over FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. Participants believed that e-cigarettes, in comparison to conventional cigarettes, had fewer health risks; caused less craving, withdrawal, addiction, and negative physical feelings; tasted better; and were more satisfying. In contrast, conventional cigarettes were perceived as better than e-cigarettes for reducing negative affect, controlling weight, providing stimulation, and reducing stress. E-cigarettes, compared to NRT, were perceived to be less risky, cost less, cause fewer negative physical feelings, taste better, provide more satisfaction, and be better at reducing craving, negative affect, and stress. Moderator analyses indicated history with ad libitum forms of NRT was associated with less positive NRT expectancies. The degree to which expectancies for e-cigarettes differed from expectancies for either tobacco cigarettes or NRT offers insight into the motivation of e-cigarette users and provides guidance for public health and clinical interventions to encourage smoking-related behavior change. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved

Increasing life expectancy and the growing elderly population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helge Brunborg

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The life expectancy has increased rapidly in Norway in recent decades, with about ¼ year per year. The increase has been particularly fast for men, following a temporary decline in the 1950s and 1960s. Statistics Norway’s mortality projections using the Lee-Carter method indicate further improvements in this century – about 10 years higher life expectancy at birth. This implies significant mortality declines for older persons as the mortality is now small for young people. With no deaths below age 50 the life expectancy would be only 1-2 years higher.Population projections are for several reasons important for studying population ageing, including to have knowledge about the future age structure, and to estimate the effects of possible policy changes. In addition, the mortality projections are used for several other purposes than for projecting the population, such as calculating future pensions according to the new pension system, where life expectancy improvements reduce the annual pensions.The population projections show that the population will age regardless of plausible assumptions made about the demographic components births, deaths, immigration and emigration. Policies to affect these components may only marginally affect future ageing, and in some cases in the wrong direction. The only factor that may significantly affect the future ratio of the working to the non-working population, the potential support ratio, is that people work longer. This ratio will remain at the current level if the pension age is increased from the current 67 years to 78 years at the end of the century. This may be possible if the health of old persons continues to improve.

Performance appraisal of expectations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russkikh G.A.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

The selection of occupancy factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakey, J.R.A.

1977-01-01

An estimate of the proportion of time that an area is occupied by radiation workers is often used in radiological protection to permit relaxation of exposure rate limits above those for continuous occupation. This proportion is known as an occupancy factor and is used most frequently in X-ray facilities. The strategy for controlling the external exposure of radiation workers must be decided before occupancy factors are selected for the design of the radiation protection facilities. When shielding has to be designed the occupancy factor effects the design objectives and permits increased exposure rates at the shield surface. It is useful to note that the selection of occupancy factors with due regard to the expected spatial variation of the exposure rate can help to reduce the range of the worker's radiation exposure because field gradients are usually steeper close to the shield. When other hazards, such as internal exposure, and other constraints, such as cost of the space consumed, are added, the selection of the optimum set of occupancy factors is more difficult. Two zone occupancy factors are discussed in this paper and proposals are made for a strategy to be used when there is more than one hazard and the designer has to meet constraints imposed by limitations of the facilities available. An important feature of the strategy is the avoidance of high radiation exposure to small groups of workers. The errors involved in assessment of the actual dose received by the radiation worker must be taken into account and in particular the selection of the higher exposure rate limits must be made with attention to the accident potential

Expected Classification Accuracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawrence M. Rudner

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

Autistic traits are linked to reduced adaptive coding of face identity and selectively poorer face recognition in men but not women.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, Gillian; Jeffery, Linda; Taylor, Libby; Ewing, Louise

2013-11-01

Our ability to discriminate and recognize thousands of faces despite their similarity as visual patterns relies on adaptive, norm-based, coding mechanisms that are continuously updated by experience. Reduced adaptive coding of face identity has been proposed as a neurocognitive endophenotype for autism, because it is found in autism and in relatives of individuals with autism. Autistic traits can also extend continuously into the general population, raising the possibility that reduced adaptive coding of face identity may be more generally associated with autistic traits. In the present study, we investigated whether adaptive coding of face identity decreases as autistic traits increase in an undergraduate population. Adaptive coding was measured using face identity aftereffects, and autistic traits were measured using the Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ) and its subscales. We also measured face and car recognition ability to determine whether autistic traits are selectively related to face recognition difficulties. We found that men who scored higher on levels of autistic traits related to social interaction had reduced adaptive coding of face identity. This result is consistent with the idea that atypical adaptive face-coding mechanisms are an endophenotype for autism. Autistic traits were also linked with face-selective recognition difficulties in men. However, there were some unexpected sex differences. In women, autistic traits were linked positively, rather than negatively, with adaptive coding of identity, and were unrelated to face-selective recognition difficulties. These sex differences indicate that autistic traits can have different neurocognitive correlates in men and women and raise the intriguing possibility that endophenotypes of autism can differ in males and females. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decomposing the Roles of Perseveration and Expected Value Representation in Models of the Iowa Gambling Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darrell A. Worthy

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Models of human behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT have played a pivotal role in accounting for behavioral differences during decision-making. One critical difference between models that have been used to account for behavior in the IGT is the inclusion or exclusion of the assumption that participants tend to persevere, or stay with the same option over consecutive trials. Models that allow for this assumption include win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS models and reinforcement learning (RL models that include a decay learning rule where expected values for each option decay as they are chosen less often. One shortcoming of RL models that have included decay rules is that the tendency to persevere by sticking with the same option has been conflated with the tendency to select the option with the highest expected value because a single term is used to represent both of these tendencies. In the current work we isolate the tendencies to perseverate and to select the option with the highest expected value by including them as separate terms in a Value-Plus-Perseveration (VPP RL model. Overall the VPP model provides a better fit to data from a large group of participants than models that include a single term to account for both perseveration and the representation of expected value. Simulations of each model show that the VPP model’s simulated choices most closely resemble the decision-making behavior of human subjects. In addition, we also find that parameter estimates of loss aversion are more strongly correlated with performance when perseverative tendencies and expected value representations are decomposed as separate terms within the model. The results suggest that the tendency to persevere and the tendency to select the option that leads to the best net payoff are central components of decision-making behavior in the IGT. Future work should use this model to better examine decision-making behavior.

Decomposing the roles of perseveration and expected value representation in models of the Iowa gambling task.

Science.gov (United States)

Worthy, Darrell A; Pang, Bo; Byrne, Kaileigh A

2013-01-01

Models of human behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) have played a pivotal role in accounting for behavioral differences during decision-making. One critical difference between models that have been used to account for behavior in the IGT is the inclusion or exclusion of the assumption that participants tend to persevere, or stay with the same option over consecutive trials. Models that allow for this assumption include win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS) models and reinforcement learning (RL) models that include a decay learning rule where expected values for each option decay as they are chosen less often. One shortcoming of RL models that have included decay rules is that the tendency to persevere by sticking with the same option has been conflated with the tendency to select the option with the highest expected value because a single term is used to represent both of these tendencies. In the current work we isolate the tendencies to perseverate and to select the option with the highest expected value by including them as separate terms in a Value-Plus-Perseveration (VPP) RL model. Overall the VPP model provides a better fit to data from a large group of participants than models that include a single term to account for both perseveration and the representation of expected value. Simulations of each model show that the VPP model's simulated choices most closely resemble the decision-making behavior of human subjects. In addition, we also find that parameter estimates of loss aversion are more strongly correlated with performance when perseverative tendencies and expected value representations are decomposed as separate terms within the model. The results suggest that the tendency to persevere and the tendency to select the option that leads to the best net payoff are central components of decision-making behavior in the IGT. Future work should use this model to better examine decision-making behavior.

Spiking the expectancy profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

Diverse Expected Gradient Active Learning for Relative Attributes.

Science.gov (United States)

You, Xinge; Wang, Ruxin; Tao, Dacheng

2014-06-02

The use of relative attributes for semantic understanding of images and videos is a promising way to improve communication between humans and machines. However, it is extremely labor- and time-consuming to define multiple attributes for each instance in large amount of data. One option is to incorporate active learning, so that the informative samples can be actively discovered and then labeled. However, most existing active-learning methods select samples one at a time (serial mode), and may therefore lose efficiency when learning multiple attributes. In this paper, we propose a batch-mode active-learning method, called Diverse Expected Gradient Active Learning (DEGAL). This method integrates an informativeness analysis and a diversity analysis to form a diverse batch of queries. Specifically, the informativeness analysis employs the expected pairwise gradient length as a measure of informativeness, while the diversity analysis forces a constraint on the proposed diverse gradient angle. Since simultaneous optimization of these two parts is intractable, we utilize a two-step procedure to obtain the diverse batch of queries. A heuristic method is also introduced to suppress imbalanced multi-class distributions. Empirical evaluations of three different databases demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

[Deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on life expectancy in China, 2013].

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Y Y; Liu, S W; Ji, N; Zeng, X Y; Liu, Y N; Zhang, M; Wang, L M; Li, Y C; Zhou, M G

2018-01-10

Objective: To analyze the deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on people's life expectancy in China in 2013. Methods: The mortality data from the Disease Surveillance Points System and alcohol use data from China Chronic Disease Surveillance (2013) were used. The deaths attributed to alcohol use and its impact on the life expectancy of Chinese residents were estimated based on the principle of comparative risk assessment by calculating population attributable fraction. Results: In 2013, alcohol use resulted in 381 200 deaths, including 97 100 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, 88 200 liver cancer deaths, 61 400 liver cirrhosis deaths and 48 700 esophageal cancer deaths, and prevented 76 500 deaths, including 68 500, 4 900 and 3 100 deaths which might be caused by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and diabetes respectively. If risk factor of alcohol use is removed, the people's life expectancy would rise by an average of 0.43 years, especially in western China by 0.52 years, which was 0.12 years higher than that in eastern and central China, and the life expectancy of the population in rural and urban areas would rise by 0.48 years and 0.31 years respectively. Conclusions: Although alcohol has a protective effect on reducing ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes deaths, alcohol use is still a risk factor influencing the mortality and life expectancy of residents in China. It is necessary to take targeted measures to reduce the health problems caused by harmful use of alcohol.

Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theodore P. Zanto

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

A selective phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitor reduces l-dopa-induced dyskinesias in parkinsonian monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Goichi; Maehara, Shunsuke; Chang, Phat Ly; Papa, Stella M

2018-03-06

Phosphodiesterase 10A is a member of the phosphodiesterase family whose brain expression is restricted to the striatum. Phosphodiesterase 10A regulates cyclic adenosine monophosphate and cyclic guanosine monophosphate, which mediate responses to dopamine receptor activation, and the levels of these cyclic nucleotides are decreased in experimental models of l-dopa-induced dyskinesia. The elevation of cyclic adenosine monophosphate/cyclic guanosine monophosphate levels by phosphodiesterase 10A inhibition may thus be targeted to reduce l-dopa-induced dyskinesia. The present study was aimed at determining the potential antidyskinetic effects of phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitors in a primate model of Parkinson's disease (PD). The experiments performed in this model were also intended to provide translational data for the design of future clinical trials. Five MPTP-treated macaques with advanced parkinsonism and reproducible l-dopa-induced dyskinesia were used. MR1916, a selective phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitor, at doses 0.0015 to 0.05 mg/kg, subcutaneously, or its vehicle (control test) was coadministered with l-dopa methyl ester acutely (predetermined optimal and suboptimal subcutaneous doses) and oral l-dopa chronically as daily treatment for 5 weeks. Standardized scales were used to assess motor disability and l-dopa-induced dyskinesia by blinded examiners. Pharmacokinetics was also examined. MR1916 consistently reduced l-dopa-induced dyskinesia in acute tests of l-dopa optimal and suboptimal doses. Significant effects were present with every MR1916 dose tested, but the most effective was 0.015 mg/kg. None of the MR1916 doses tested affected the antiparkinsonian action of l-dopa at the optimal dose. The anti-l-dopa-induced dyskinesia effect of MR1916 (0.015 mg/kg, subcutaneously) was sustained with chronic administration, indicating that tolerance did not develop over the 5-week treatment. No adverse effects were observed after MR1916 administration acutely or

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

2009-11-01

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

Beyond Expectations: Autonomy and the Iranian Postgraduate Students in Malaysian Public Universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sina Neissi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Iranian learners at all levels of education (primary, secondary and tertiary face a number of constraints in their studies due to restriction of educational system, cultures, upbringing and expectations of society. Based on this premise the researchers would like to explore the degrees of autonomy as practiced by selected Iranian postgraduate students studying at three premier public universities in Malaysia. Data were gathered using the Learner Autonomy Profile (LAP developed by Confessore & Confessore (1992.  The findings reveal that these Iranian postgraduate students do practice autonomy and know how to apply positive coping strategies in their studies; thus indicating positive contradiction from the normal expectations of Iranian learners’ performance in relation to autonomy. The paper concludes with the impacts and implications of the findings.

Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction Over Time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjortskov, Morten

2018-01-01

Expectations are thought to affect how citizens form their attitudes and behavior toward public services. Such attitudes may include citizen satisfaction, where expectations play a fundamental role, and relevant behaviors include choice of services and the decision to voice opinions about them....... However, there are few investigations into what drives citizen expectations and even fewer that consider these relationships across time. This article tests whether prior expectations, perceived performance, and citizen satisfaction influence future expectations, using a unique dataset that follows...... individual citizens across two subsequent school satisfaction surveys from 2011 and 2013. The results show that prior expectations have a large and consistent influence on future expectations, as predicted by the literature, whereas the influence from prior perceived performance seems less consistent. Prior...

Selection of Branded Alcoholic Beverages by Underage Drinkers

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Craig S.; Ostroff, Josh; Naimi, Timothy S.; DeJong, William; Siegel, Michael B.; Jernigan, David H.

2015-01-01

Purpose To identify reasons why youth choose to drink specific brands of alcohol and to determine if these reasons are associated with problem drinking patterns and outcomes. Methods We conducted an Internet survey of 1,031 youth ages 13 to 20 who reported drinking within the past 30 days. Of these, 541 youth who reported having a choice of multiple brands of alcohol the last time they drank stated (yes/no) whether each of 16 different reasons had influenced their choice of a specific brand. We reduced these 16 reasons to three principle components and used Latent Class Modeling to identify five groups of youth with similar reasons for selecting a brand, which we then profiled. Results We grouped respondents into the following brand selection groups: “Brand Ambassadors” who were distinguished from other clusters by selecting a brand because they identified with it (32.5% of respondents), “Tasters” who selected a brand because they expected it to taste good (27.2%), “Bargain Hunters” who selected a brand because it was inexpensive (18.5%), “Copycats” who selected a brand because they’d seen adults drinking it or seen it consumed in movies or other media (10.4%), and “Others” (11.5%). Brand Ambassadors and Copycats reported the largest amount of alcohol consumed and had the greatest prevalence of both heavy episodic drinking and negative alcohol-related health consequences. Conclusions Underage drinkers who cite marketing influences and adult or media modeling of brand choices as their reasons for selecting alcohol brands are likely to drink more and incur adverse consequences from drinking. PMID:25907655

A Fuzzy-MOORA approach for ERP system selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prasad Karande

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In today’s global and dynamic business environment, manufacturing organizations face the tremendous challenge of expanding markets and meeting the customer expectations. It compels them to lower total cost in the entire supply chain, shorten throughput time, reduce inventory, expand product choice, provide more reliable delivery dates and better customer service, improve quality, and efficiently coordinate demand, supply and production. In order to accomplish these objectives, the manufacturing organizations are turning to enterprise resource planning (ERP system, which is an enterprise-wide information system to interlace all the necessary business functions, such as product planning, purchasing, inventory control, sales, financial and human resources into a single system having a shared database. Thus to survive in the global competitive environment, implementation of a suitable ERP system is mandatory. However, selecting a wrong ERP system may adversely affect the manufacturing organization’s overall performance. Due to limitations in available resources, complexity of ERP systems and diversity of alternatives, it is often difficult for a manufacturing organization to select and install the most suitable ERP system. In this paper, two ERP system selection problems are solved using fuzzy multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA method and it is observed that in both the cases, SAP is the best solution.

Effects of Communication Expectancies, Actual Communication, and Expectancy Disconfirmation on Evaluations of Communicators and Their Communication Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgoon, Judee K.; Le Poire, Beth A.

1993-01-01

Investigates the perseverance of preinteraction expectancies in the face of actual communication behavior, the separate effects of personal attribute and communication expectancies, and the role of expectancy confirmation or disconfirmation on postinteraction evaluations. Confirms the validity of expectancy violations theory. (SR)

Reduced Pain Sensation and Reduced BOLD Signal in Parietofrontal Networks during Religious Prayer.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmholdt, Else-Marie; Skewes, Joshua; Dietz, Martin; Møller, Arne; Jensen, Martin S; Roepstorff, Andreas; Wiech, Katja; Jensen, Troels S

2017-01-01

Previous studies suggest that religious prayer can alter the experience of pain via expectation mechanisms. While brain processes related to other types of top-down modulation of pain have been studied extensively, no research has been conducted on the potential effects of active religious coping. Here, we aimed at investigating the neural mechanisms during pain modulation by prayer and their dependency on the opioidergic system. Twenty-eight devout Protestants performed religious prayer and a secular contrast prayer during painful electrical stimulation in two fMRI sessions. Naloxone or saline was administered prior to scanning. Results show that pain intensity was reduced by 11% and pain unpleasantness by 26% during religious prayer compared to secular prayer. Expectancy predicted large amounts (70-89%) of the variance in pain intensity. Neuroimaging results revealed reduced neural activity during religious prayer in a large parietofrontal network relative to the secular condition. Naloxone had no significant effect on ratings or neural activity. Our results thus indicate that, under these conditions, pain modulation by prayer is not opioid-dependent. Further studies should employ an optimized design to explore whether reduced engagement of the frontoparietal system could indicate that prayer may attenuate pain through a reduction in processing of pain stimulus saliency and prefrontal control rather than through known descending pain inhibitory systems.

Memory for expectation-violating concepts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Porubanova, Michaela; Shaw, Daniel; McKay, Ryan

2014-01-01

Previous research has shown that ideas which violate our expectations, such as schema-inconsistent concepts, enjoy privileged status in terms of memorability. In our study, memory for concepts that violate cultural (cultural schema-level) expectations (e.g., ‘‘illiterate teacher’’, ‘‘wooden bottle...... expectations and with intuitive concepts (e.g., ‘‘galloping pony’’, ‘‘drying orchid’’, or ‘‘convertible car’’), in both immediate recall, and delayed recognition tests. Importantly, concepts related to agents showed a memory advantage over concepts not pertaining to agents, but this was true only...... for expectation-violating concepts. Our results imply that intuitive, everyday concepts are equally attractive and memorable regardless of the presence or absence of agents. However, concepts that violate our expectations (cultural-schema or domain-level) are more memorable when pertaining to agents (humans...

49 CFR 268.17 - Project selection criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... criteria will govern FRA's selection of projects to receive funding under the Maglev Deployment Program. (a... are to be expected in the United States. (4) The degree to which the project will augment a Maglev... development status of the Maglev technology selected by the applicant for the project. (c) Benefits for the...

Is it beneficial to selectively boost high-risk tumor subvolumes? A comparison of selectively boosting high-risk tumor subvolumes versus homogeneous dose escalation of the entire tumor based on equivalent EUD plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yusung; To me, Wolfgang A.

2008-01-01

Purpose. To quantify and compare expected local tumor control and expected normal tissue toxicities between selective boosting IMRT and homogeneous dose escalation IMRT for the case of prostate cancer. Methods. Four different selective boosting scenarios and three different high-risk tumor subvolume geometries were designed to compare selective boosting and homogeneous dose escalation IMRT plans delivering the same equivalent uniform dose (EUD) to the entire PTV. For each scenario, differences in tumor control probability between both boosting strategies were calculated for the high-risk tumor subvolume and remaining low-risk PTV, and were visualized using voxel based iso-TCP maps. Differences in expected rectal and bladder complications were quantified using radiobiological indices (generalized EUD (gEUD) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)) as well as %-volumes. Results. For all investigated scenarios and high-risk tumor subvolume geometries, selective boosting IMRT improves expected TCP compared to homogeneous dose escalation IMRT, especially when lack of control of the high-risk tumor subvolume could be the cause for tumor recurrence. Employing, selective boosting IMRT significant increases in expected TCP can be achieved for the high-risk tumor subvolumes. The three conventional selective boosting IMRT strategies, employing physical dose objectives, did not show significant improvement in rectal and bladder sparing as compared to their counterpart homogeneous dose escalation plans. However, risk-adaptive optimization, utilizing radiobiological objective functions, resulted in reduction in NTCP for the rectum when compared to its corresponding homogeneous dose escalation plan. Conclusions. Selective boosting is a more effective method than homogeneous dose escalation for achieving optimal treatment outcomes. Furthermore, risk-adaptive optimization increases the therapeutic ratio as compared to conventional selective boosting IMRT

Persistent social inequality in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen

2017-01-01

AIMS: The state old-age pension in Denmark increases to keep pace with the projected increase in average life expectancy (LE) without any regard to the social gap in LE and expected lifetime in good health. The purpose of this study was to compare changes in LE and disability-free life expectancy...... (DFLE) between groups of Danes with high, medium and low levels of education. METHODS: Nationwide register data on education and mortality were combined with data from the Surveys of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) surveys in 2006-2007, 2010-2011 and 2013-2014 and the DFLE by educational...... level was estimated by Sullivan's method for each of these three time points. RESULTS: Between 2006-2007 and 2013-2014, LE among 65-year-old men and women with a low educational level increased by 1.3 and 1.0 years, respectively, and by 1.4 and 1.3 years for highly educated men and women. The gap in LE...

Temperature dependent selective detection of hydrogen and acetone using Pd doped WO3/reduced graphene oxide nanocomposite

Science.gov (United States)

Kaur, Jasmeet; Anand, Kanica; Kohli, Nipin; Kaur, Amanpreet; Singh, Ravi Chand

2018-06-01

Reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and Pd doped WO3 nanocomposites were fabricated by employing electrostatic interactions between poly (diallyldimethylammonium chloride) (PDDA) modified Pd doped WO3 nanostructures and graphite oxide (GO) and studied for their gas sensing application. XRD, Raman, FTIR, FESEM-EDX, TEM, TGA, XPS and Photoluminescence techniques were used for characterization of as-synthesized samples. Gas sensing studies revealed that the sensor with optimized doping of 1.5 mol% Pd and 1 wt% GO shows temperature dependent selectivity towards hydrogen and acetone. The role of WO3, Pd and RGO has been discussed in detail for enhanced sensing performance.

Simulated selection responses for breeding programs including resistance and resilience to parasites in Creole goats.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunia, M; Phocas, F; Gourdine, J-L; Bijma, P; Mandonnet, N

2013-02-01

The Creole goat is a local breed used for meat production in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). As in other tropical countries, improvement of parasite resistance is needed. In this study, we compared predicted selection responses for alternative breeding programs with or without parasite resistance and resilience traits. The overall breeding goal included traits for production, reproduction, and parasite resilience and resistance to ensure a balanced selection outcome. The production traits were BW and dressing percentage (DP). The reproduction trait was fertility (FER), which was the number of doe kiddings per mating. The resistance trait was worm fecal egg count (FEC), which is a measurement of the number of gastro-intestinal parasite eggs found in the feces. The resilience trait was the packed cell volume (PCV), which is a measurement of the volume of red blood cells in the blood. Dressing percentage, BW, and FEC were measured at 11 mo of age, which is the mating or selling age. Fertility and PCV were measured on females at each kidding period. The breeding program accounting for the overall breeding goal and a selection index including all traits gave annual selection responses of 800 g for BW, 3.75% for FER, 0.08% for DP, -0.005 ln(eggs/g) for FEC, and 0.28% for PCV. The expected selection responses for BW and DP in this breeding program were reduced by 2% and 6%, respectively, compared with a breeding program not accounting for FEC and PCV. The overall breeding program, proposed for the Creole breed, offers the best breeding strategy in terms of expected selection responses, making it possible to improve all traits together. It offers a good balance between production and adaptation traits and may present some interest for the selection of other goat breeds in the tropics.

Internet addiction: Coping Styles, Expectancies, and Treatment Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias eBrand

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Internet addiction has become a serious mental health condition in many countries. To better understand the clinical implications of Internet addiction, this study tested statistically a new theoretical model illustrating underlying cognitive mechanisms contributing to development and maintenance of the disorder. The model differentiates between a generalized Internet addiction (GIA and specific forms. This study tested the model on GIA on a population of general Internet users. The findings from 1019 users showed that the hypothesized structural equation model explained 63.5% of the variance of GIA symptoms, as measured by the short version of the Internet Addiction Test (s-IAT. Using psychological and personality testing, the results show that a person’s specific cognitions (poor coping and cognitive expectations increased the risk for generalized Internet addiction. These two factors mediated the symptoms of GIA if other risk factors were present such as depression, social anxiety, low self-esteem, low self-efficacy, and high stress vulnerability to name a few areas that were measured in the study. The model shows that individuals with high coping skills and no expectancies that the Internet can be used to increase positive or reduce negative mood are less likely to engage in problematic Internet use, even when other personality or psychological vulnerabilities are present. The implications for treatment include a clear cognitive component to the development of generalized Internet addiction and the need to assess a patient’s coping style and cognitions and improve faulty thinking to reduce symptoms and engage in recovery.

Energy-dense snacks can have the same expected satiation as sugar-containing beverages

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Ashley A.; Hamill, Liam R.; Davies, Sarah; Rogers, Peter J.; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M.

2015-01-01

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are thought to be problematic for weight management because energy delivered in liquid form may be less effective at suppressing appetite than solid foods. However, little is known about the relative ‘expected satiation’ (anticipated fullness) of SSBs and solid foods. This is relevant because expected satiation is an important determinant of portion selection and energy intake. Here, we used a method of constant stimuli to assess the expected satiation of test meals that were presented in combination with different caloric and non-caloric beverages (500 ml) (Experiment 1 and 2), as well as with high-energy solid snack foods (Experiment 2). All energy-containing beverages and snack foods were presented in 210 kcal portions. Both experiments found that expected satiation was greater for meals containing caloric versus non-caloric beverages (201.3 ± 17.3 vs. 185.4 ± 14.1 kcal in Experiment 2; p beverages, indicating a role for learning. Notably, we failed to observe a significant difference in expected satiation between any of the caloric beverages and snack foods in Experiment 2 (range: 192.5–205.2 kcal; p = 0.87). This finding suggests that it may be more appropriate to consider beverages and solid foods on the same continuum, recognizing that the expected satiation of some solid foods is as weak as some beverages. PMID:26122755

Performance expectation plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ray, P.E.

1998-09-04

This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

A multiobjective optimization model for optimal supplier selection in multiple sourcing environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. K. Mehlawat

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Supplier selection is an important concern of a firm’s competitiveness, more so in the context of the imperative of supply-chain management. In this paper, we use an approach to a multiobjective supplier selection problem in which the emphasis is on building supplier portfolios. The supplier evaluation and order allocation is based upon the criteria of expected unit price, expected score of quality and expected score of delivery. A fuzzy approach is proposed that relies on nonlinear S-shape membership functions to generate different efficient supplier portfolios. Numerical experiments conducted on a data set of a multinational company are provided to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach to real-world applications of supplier selection

Expectancies as core features of mental disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Rief, Winfried; Glombiewski, Julia A; Gollwitzer, Mario; Schubö, Anna; Schwarting, Rainer; Thorwart, Anna

2015-09-01

Expectancies are core features of mental disorders, and change in expectations is therefore one of the core mechanisms of treatment in psychiatry. We aim to improve our understanding of expectancies by summarizing factors that contribute to their development, persistence, and modification. We pay particular attention to the issue of persistence of expectancies despite experiences that contradict them. Based on recent research findings, we propose a new model for expectation persistence and expectation change. When expectations are established, effects are evident in neural and other biological systems, for example, via anticipatory reactions, different biological reactions to expected versus unexpected stimuli, etc. Psychological 'immunization' and 'assimilation', implicit self-confirming processes, and stability of biological processes help us to better understand why expectancies persist even in the presence of expectation violations. Learning theory, attentional processes, social influences, and biological determinants contribute to the development, persistence, and modification of expectancies. Psychological interventions should focus on optimizing expectation violation to achieve optimal treatment outcome and to avoid treatment failures.

Improving Genetic Gain with Genomic Selection in Autotetraploid Potato

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony T. Slater

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Potato ( L. breeders consider a large number of traits during cultivar development and progress in conventional breeding can be slow. There is accumulating evidence that some of these traits, such as yield, are affected by a large number of genes with small individual effects. Recently, significant efforts have been applied to the development of genomic resources to improve potato breeding, culminating in a draft genome sequence and the identification of a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. The availability of these genome-wide SNPs is a prerequisite for implementing genomic selection for improvement of polygenic traits such as yield. In this review, we investigate opportunities for the application of genomic selection to potato, including novel breeding program designs. We have considered a number of factors that will influence this process, including the autotetraploid and heterozygous genetic nature of potato, the rate of decay of linkage disequilibrium, the number of required markers, the design of a reference population, and trait heritability. Based on estimates of the effective population size derived from a potato breeding program, we have calculated the expected accuracy of genomic selection for four key traits of varying heritability and propose that it will be reasonably accurate. We compared the expected genetic gain from genomic selection with the expected gain from phenotypic and pedigree selection, and found that genetic gain can be substantially improved by using genomic selection.

College for some to college for all: social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Goyette, Kimberly A

2008-06-01

The educational expectations of 10th-graders have dramatically increased from 1980 to 2002. Their rise is attributable in part to the changing educational composition of students' parents and related to the educational profiles of their expected occupations. Students whose parents have gone to college are more likely to attend college themselves, and students expect occupations that are more prestigious in 2002 than in 1980. The educational requirements of particular occupation categories have risen only slightly. These analyses also reveal that educational expectations in recent cohorts are more loosely linked to social background and occupational plans than they were in 1980. The declining importance of parents' background and the decoupling of educational and occupational plans, in addition to a strong and significant effect of cohort on educational expectations, suggest that the expectation of four-year college attainment is indeed becoming the norm.

The Influence of Subjective Life Expectancy on Retirement Transition and Planning: A Longitudinal Study

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Barbara; Hesketh, Beryl; Loh, Vanessa

2012-01-01

This study examines the construct of subjective life expectancy (SLE), or the estimation of one's probable age of death. Drawing on the tenets of socioemotional selectivity theory (Carstensen, Isaacowitz, & Charles, 1999), we propose that SLE provides individuals with their own unique mental model of remaining time that is likely to affect their…

The weight of the container influences expected satiety, perceived density, and subsequent expected fullness.

Science.gov (United States)

Piqueras-Fiszman, Betina; Spence, Charles

2012-04-01

We report a study designed to investigate the influence of the weight of the container on expected satiety prior to tasting the food within and on the perceived density of the food and any feelings of fullness expected to follow consumption (expected satiation). The results demonstrate that the contents of a heavier container are expected to be more satiating than when exactly the same contents are presented in a visually-identical, but physically lighter, container (even before the food has been tasted). In addition, we were able to validate a "weight-density" illusion, since the weight of the container was shown to influence the perceived density of the sample. Put simply, the heavier the container, the denser the food sample was perceived to be. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The impact of hypertension on active life expectancy among senior citizens of Beijing].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhong-ying; Tang, Zhe; Feng, Ming

2010-07-01

The aim of the study is to explore the influence of hypertension on life expectancy (LE), active life expectancy (ALE) and active life expectancy/life expectancy (ALE/LE) among senior citizens in Beijin. The sample derived from Beijing multidimensional longitudinal study on aging, baseline survey consisted of 1847 elderly people aged 60 years and over dwelling in the communities from one urban district (Xuanwu), one suburban country (Daxing) and one mountainous country (Huairou) in Beijing, 2004. Cluster, stratified and randomly selected sampling technique was used and a follow-up program was carried out in 2007. The subjects were invited to fill in questionnaires at home through well-trained interviewers, together with medical history of hypertension and repeated blood pressure measurements adopted. The state of activity was defined according to whether they could perform activities of daily life (ADL). IMaCH software for multi-state life table method was used to calculate the life expectancy (LE), active life expectancy (ALE) and active life expectancy/life expectancy (ALE/LE) in people with hypertension and normal blood tension, as well as on those people with hypertension with or without cardio-cerebral disease. The study manifested that hypertensives were associated with the reduction of LE, ALE and ALE/LE compared to the normotensives. The ALE/LE was descending along with ageing, and the speed of reduction was much faster in the hypertensive group, especially within senile population. LE, ALE and LE/LE among the hypertensives with cardio-cerebral vascular diseases were shorter than the hypertensives without the disease. Difference in ALE/LE was striking in people with virile senility. Hypertension remarkably impacted the active life expectancy on senior citizens living in Beijing, especially for elderly. Hypertensives with cardio-cerebral vascular diseases exerted further influence on active life expectancy, particularly among population of virile senility

[Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

Science.gov (United States)

Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

2015-01-01

Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Can parental monitoring and peer management reduce the selection or influence of delinquent peers? Testing the question using a dynamic social network approach.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tilton-Weaver, L.C.; Burk, W.J.; Kerr, M.; Stattin, H.

2013-01-01

We tested whether parents can reduce affiliation with delinquent peers through 3 forms of peer management: soliciting information, monitoring rules, and communicating disapproval of peers. We examined whether peer management interrupted 2 peer processes: selection and influence of delinquent peers.

Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

OpenAIRE

Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

2012-01-01

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

1998-01-01

The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

Science.gov (United States)

Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

2011-04-01

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC

Science.gov (United States)

Mollicone, D.; Freibauer, A.; Schulze, E. D.; Braatz, S.; Grassi, G.; Federici, S.

2007-10-01

Carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation account for about 20% of global anthropogenic emissions. Strategies and incentives for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) have emerged as one of the most active areas in the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the current negotiations focus on a REDD mechanism in developing countries, it should be recognized that risks of carbon losses from forests occur in all climate zones and also in industrialized countries. A future climate change agreement would be more effective if it included all carbon losses and gains from land use in all countries and climate zones. The REDD mechanism will be an important step towards reducing emissions from land use change in developing countries, but needs to be followed by steps in other land use systems and regions. A national approach to REDD and significant coverage globally are needed to deal with the risk that deforestation and degradation activities are displaced rather than avoided. Favourable institutional and governance conditions need to be established that guarantee in the long-term a stable incentive and control system for maintaining forest carbon stocks. Ambitious emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation need sustained financial incentives, which go beyond positive incentives for reduced emissions but also give incentives for sustainable forest management. Current data limitations need—and can be—overcome in the coming years to allow accurate accounting of reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation. A proper application of the conservativeness approach in the REDD context could allow a simplified reporting of emissions from deforestation in a first phase, consistent with the already agreed UNFCCC reporting principles.

Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mollicone, D; Freibauer, A; Schulze, E D; Braatz, S; Grassi, G; Federici, S

2007-01-01

Carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation account for about 20% of global anthropogenic emissions. Strategies and incentives for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) have emerged as one of the most active areas in the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the current negotiations focus on a REDD mechanism in developing countries, it should be recognized that risks of carbon losses from forests occur in all climate zones and also in industrialized countries. A future climate change agreement would be more effective if it included all carbon losses and gains from land use in all countries and climate zones. The REDD mechanism will be an important step towards reducing emissions from land use change in developing countries, but needs to be followed by steps in other land use systems and regions. A national approach to REDD and significant coverage globally are needed to deal with the risk that deforestation and degradation activities are displaced rather than avoided. Favourable institutional and governance conditions need to be established that guarantee in the long-term a stable incentive and control system for maintaining forest carbon stocks. Ambitious emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation need sustained financial incentives, which go beyond positive incentives for reduced emissions but also give incentives for sustainable forest management. Current data limitations need-and can be-overcome in the coming years to allow accurate accounting of reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation. A proper application of the conservativeness approach in the REDD context could allow a simplified reporting of emissions from deforestation in a first phase, consistent with the already agreed UNFCCC reporting principles

Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trifon I. Missov

2013-02-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprovides an exact formula for gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth and a simplerhigh-accuracy approximation that can be used in practice for computational convenience.In addition, the article compares actual (life-table to model-based (gamma-Gompertzlife expectancy to assess on aggregate how many years of life expectancy are not captured(or overestimated by the gamma-Gompertz mortality mechanism. COMMENTS A closed-form expression for gamma-Gomeprtz life expectancy at birth contains a special(the hypergeometric function. It aids assessing the impact of gamma-Gompertz parameterson life expectancy values. The paper shows that a high-accuracy approximation canbe constructed by assuming an integer value for the shape parameter of the gamma distribution.A historical comparison between model-based and actual life expectancy forSwedish females reveals a gap that is decreasing to around 2 years from 1950 onwards.Looking at remaining life expectancies at ages 30 and 50, we see this gap almost disappearing.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

SYSTEM FOR AUTOMATIC SELECTION OF THE SPEED RATE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR REDUCING THE POWER CONSUMPTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. O. Soroka

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The work is aimed to design a system for automatic selection of the optimal traffic modes and automatic monitoring of the electric energy consumption by electric transport. This automatic system should provide for the minimum energy expenses. Methodology. Current methodologies: 1 mathematical modeling of traffic modes of ground electric vehicles; 2 comparison of modelling results with the statistical monitoring; 3 system development for automatic choice of traffic modes of electric transport with minimal electrical energy consumptions taking into account the given route schedules and the limitations imposed by the general traffic rules. Findings. The authors obtained a mathematical dependency of the energy consumption by electric transport enterprises on the monthly averaged environment temperature was obtained. A system which allows for an automatic selection of the speed limit and provides automatic monitoring of the electrical energy consumption by electric vehicles was proposed in the form of local network, which works together with existing GPS system. Originality. A mathematical model for calculating the motion curves and energy consumption of electric vehicles has been developed. This model takes into account the characteristic values of the motor engine and the steering system, the change of the mass when loading or unloading passengers, the slopes and radii of the roads, the limitations given by the general traffic rules, and other factors. The dependency of the energy consumption on the averaged monthly environment temperature for public electric transport companies has been calculated. Practical value. The developed mathematical model simplifies the calculations of the traffic dynamics and energy consumption. It can be used for calculating the routing maps, for design and upgrade of the power networks, for development of the electricity saving measures. The system simplifies the work of the vehicle driver and allows reducing

Life expectancy and education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

2017-01-01

, we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

Expectation-based intelligent control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zak, Michail

2006-01-01

New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

A simple route to Develop Highly porous Nano Polypyrrole/Reduced Graphene Oxide Composite film for Selective Determination of Dopamine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniel Arulraj, Abraham; Arunkumar, Arumugam; Vijayan, Muthunanthevar; Balaji Viswanath, Kamatchirajan; Vasantha, Vairathevar Sivasamy

2016-01-01

A highly selective sensor was developed for dopamine with electrochemically treated sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate doped nano polypyrrole (ET-SDBS-NPPy)/reduced graphene oxide (RGO) film. First, graphene oxide (GO) was reduced on the electrode surface electrochemically and then, SDBS-NPPy film was polymerized electrochemically on the ERGO coated GCE and bare GCE also. The SDBS-NPPy/ERGO and SDBS-NPPy films were treated electrochemically in phosphate buffer solution to replace macro SDBS- anions by smaller phosphate anions. Then, the physical properties of the above composite films were characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM) and water wettability test. The replacement of SDBS- anions by phosphate anions leaves porous structure in the polymer films and also increases the hydrophobicity in the films. Then, these composite films were applied for the determination of dopamine in the presence of ascorbic acid and uric acid. Under the optimal conditions, the linear range for dopamine detection is 0.1 μM-100.0 μM with the detection limit of 20 nM at S/N = 3. Generally, conducting polypyrrole film could sense ascorbic acid and dopamine simultaneously. However, we have proposed a simple route to synthesis a porous and hydrophobic polypyrrole composite film for selective determination of dopamine in the presence of higher concentration (five orders) of ascorbic acid and uric acid.

Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers' knowledge-based selective word learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

2015-11-01

Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory-of-mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children's preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children's developing social cognition and early learning. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers’ knowledge-based selective word learning

Science.gov (United States)

Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

2015-01-01

Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory of mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children’s preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children’s developing social cognition and early learning. PMID:26211504

Highly sensitive and selective detection of Bis-phenol A based on hydroxyapatite decorated reduced graphene oxide nanocomposites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alam, Mohammad K.; Rahman, Mohammed M.; Elzwawy, Amir; Torati, Sri Ramulu; Islam, Mohammad S.; Todo, Mitsugu; Asiri, Abdullah M.; Kim, Dojin; Kim, CheolGi

2017-01-01

Highlights: •Simple chemical reduction method was used for preparation of reduced graphene oxide/hydroxyapatite (rGO/HAp) nanocomposites. •The rGO/HAp nanocomposites exhibited good biocompatibility with hMSCs. •Selective chemical sensor based on rGO/HAp nanocomposites was developed for detection of Bis-phenol A. •The fabricated rGO/HAp/Nafion/GCE sensor exhibited good detection limit of 60 pmol L −1 . -- Abstract: A facile and cost effective chemical reduction method is employed for the preparation of reduced graphene oxide/hydroxyapatite (rGO/HAp) nanocomposites. The transmission electron microscopy images revealed that the HAp flakes are well decorated on the surface of rGO. The morphological structure of the as-synthesized rGO/HAp nanocomposites was confirmed through X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy, while the composition and thermal stability were analyzed by energy dispersive spectra and thermogravimetric analysis, respectively. Furthermore, the effect of rGO/HAp nanocomposites for the proliferation of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cell (hMSC) was performed to confirm the biocompatibility. A selective chemical sensor based on rGO/HAp modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) for sensitive detection of Bis-phenol A (BPA) has been developed. Several important parameters controlling the performance of the BPA chemi-sensor were investigated and optimized at room conditions. The rGO/HAp/Nafion/GCE sensor offers a fast response and highly sensitive BPA detection. Under the optimal conditions, a linear range from 0.2 nmol L −1 to 2.0 mmol L −1 for the detection of BPA was observed with the detection limit of 60.0 pmol L −1 (signal-to-noise ratio, at an SNR of 3) and sensitivity of 18.98 × 10 4 μA.L/μmol.m 2 . Meanwhile, the fabricated chemi-sensor showed an excellent, specific and selective recognition to target BPA molecules among coexistence of other analytes in the buffer system. This novel effort initiated

PERMANENT GENETIC RESOURCES: Development of 52 new polymorphic SSR markers from cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.): transferability to related taxa and selection of a reduced set for DNA fingerprinting and diversity studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Escribano, P; Viruel, M A; Hormaza, J I

2008-03-01

Fifty-two single locus polymorphic microsatellites were developed using two genomic libraries digested with HaeIII and RsaI of cherimoya cv. Fino de Jete enriched in CT/AG repeats. A total of 222 alleles were detected with the selected simple sequence repeats (SSRs). The observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.08 to 0.73 and from 0.20 to 0.84, respectively. Most of the SSRs were transferable to other species in the Annonaceae. A set of 20 microsatellites was selected to facilitate the exchange of data among laboratories. © 2007 The Authors.

Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

OpenAIRE

Gollier, Christian

2010-01-01

Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

Organization and Information: Firms' Governance Choices in Rational-Expectations Equilibrium

OpenAIRE

Robert Gibbons; Richard Holden; Michael Powell

2012-01-01

We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate-good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of firms, each consisting of a party who can reduce production cost and a party who can discover information about demand. Both parties can make specific investments at private cost, and there is a machine that either party can control. As in incomplete-contracting models, different governance structures (i.e., different allocations of control of the machine) crea...

Alcohol Outcome Expectancies and Drinking to Cope with Social Situations

OpenAIRE

Carrigan, Maureen H.; Ham, Lindsay S.; Thomas, Suzanne E.; Randall, Carrie L.

2008-01-01

Repeated use of alcohol as a coping strategy to reduce anxiety or discomfort increases one's risk of developing alcohol dependence. Previous studies have found alcohol outcome expectancies (AOE) strongly predict drinking behavior, in general, and also are related to drinking to cope. The purpose of the current study was to examine AOE that may be related to drinking to cope with discomfort in social situations. It was hypothesized that positive AOE, especially related to assertion and tension...

Personality Traits' Effects on Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectations for High School Major Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Dikla; Cinamon, Rachel Gali

2016-01-01

The current study focuses on the contribution of the Big Five personality traits to the development of self-efficacy and outcome expectations regarding selection of a high school major among 368 Israeli adolescents (Mage = 16.07, SD = 0.41). Structural equation analyses showed that higher levels of conscientiousness and extraversion and lower…

Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

2003-06-01

This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wigfield; Eccles

2000-01-01

We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

OpenAIRE

Brown, S; Taylor, K

2013-01-01

We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

Concepts of Present Self, Expected Self, and Ideal Self in Vocational Preferences and Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgoyne, Peter H.

1979-01-01

Investigated the hypotheses that similarity of ideal self and occupational stereotypes is important in determining vocational preferences of adolescents, while similarity between expected self and occupational stereotypes is important in determining occupational expectations. Findings supported the idea that ideal self played an important role in…

Global-minded Human Resources and Expectations for Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Hiroshi

Under the globalized economy, Japanese corporations compete with rivals of the western countries and emerging economies. And domestically, they face with deflation, falling birth-rate, an aging society, and shrinking market. So they need to foster and retain global-minded human resources who can play an active role in global business, and who can drive innovation. What Japanese corporations expect for global-minded human resources are ability to meet challenges, ability to think independently free from conventional wisdom, communication skills in foreign languages, interests in foreign cultures and different values, and so on. In order to foster global-minded human resources, Keidanren work with the 13 universities selected under the Japanese Government‧s “Global 30” projects to undertake “Global-minded Human Resources Development Projects” .

Great Expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dickens, Charles

2005-01-01

One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

2016-01-01

The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

Treatment of selective mutism: focus on selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaakeh, Yaman; Stumpf, Janice L

2008-02-01

Abstract Selective mutism is a pediatric psychiatric disorder that occurs when a child consistently fails to speak in specific situations in which speaking is expected, such as at school and social gatherings, but speaks appropriately in other settings. Selective mutism often is diagnosed when a child starts school and does not talk to teachers or peers, but talks to family members at home; the condition is frequently accompanied by anxiety and shyness. Although the underlying etiology of the condition remains unclear, psychotherapy is the preferred initial treatment, with the support of parents and teachers. If the child does not respond to psychotherapy, addition of pharmacologic treatment should be considered, depending on the severity of symptoms and presence of other illnesses. Although data are limited to case reports and trials with small patient populations and short follow-up periods, some patients with selective mutism respond to therapy with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Fluoxetine is the most studied SSRI as treatment for the condition, although further investigation is required to determine the optimal dosage and duration of therapy.

Selective Glucocorticoid Receptor (GR-II Antagonist Reduces Body Weight Gain in Mice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomoko Asagami

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Previous research has shown that mifepristone can prevent and reverse weight gain in animals and human subjects taking antipsychotic medications. This proof-of-concept study tested whether a more potent and selective glucocorticoid receptor antagonist could block dietary-induced weight gain and increase insulin sensitivity in mice. Ten-week-old, male, C57BL/6J mice were fed a diet containing 60% fat calories and water supplemented with 11% sucrose for 4 weeks. Groups (=8 received one of the following: CORT 108297 (80 mg/kg QD, CORT 108297 (40 mg/kg BID, mifepristone (30 mg/kg BID, rosiglitazone (10 mg/kg QD, or vehicle. Compared to mice receiving a high-fat, high-sugar diet plus vehicle, mice receiving a high-fat, high-sugar diet plus either mifepristone or CORT 108297 gained significantly less weight. At the end of the four week treatment period, mice receiving CORT 108297 40 mg/kg BID or CORT 108297 80 mg/kg QD also had significantly lower steady plasma glucose than mice receiving vehicle. However, steady state plasma glucose after treatment was not highly correlated with reduced weight gain, suggesting that the effect of the glucocorticoid receptor antagonist on insulin sensitivity may be independent of its mitigating effect on weight gain.

Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

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Jaekyoung Bae

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

Automatic spectral imaging protocol selection and iterative reconstruction in abdominal CT with reduced contrast agent dose: initial experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Peijie; Liu, Jie; Chai, Yaru; Yan, Xiaopeng; Gao, Jianbo; Dong, Junqiang

2017-01-01

To evaluate the feasibility, image quality, and radiation dose of automatic spectral imaging protocol selection (ASIS) and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) with reduced contrast agent dose in abdominal multiphase CT. One hundred and sixty patients were randomly divided into two scan protocols (n = 80 each; protocol A, 120 kVp/450 mgI/kg, filtered back projection algorithm (FBP); protocol B, spectral CT imaging with ASIS and 40 to 70 keV monochromatic images generated per 300 mgI/kg, ASIR algorithm. Quantitative parameters (image noise and contrast-to-noise ratios [CNRs]) and qualitative visual parameters (image noise, small structures, organ enhancement, and overall image quality) were compared. Monochromatic images at 50 keV and 60 keV provided similar or lower image noise, but higher contrast and overall image quality as compared with 120-kVp images. Despite the higher image noise, 40-keV images showed similar overall image quality compared to 120-kVp images. Radiation dose did not differ between the two protocols, while contrast agent dose in protocol B was reduced by 33 %. Application of ASIR and ASIS to monochromatic imaging from 40 to 60 keV allowed contrast agent dose reduction with adequate image quality and without increasing radiation dose compared to 120 kVp with FBP. • Automatic spectral imaging protocol selection provides appropriate scan protocols. • Abdominal CT is feasible using spectral imaging and 300 mgI/kg contrast agent. • 50-keV monochromatic images with 50 % ASIR provide optimal image quality.

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

Science.gov (United States)

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

Responsibility and expectations in antiretroviral therapy--patients' versus doctors' perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Largu, Maria Alexandra; Dorobăţ, Carmen; Oprea, L; Astărăstoae, V; Manciuc, Carmen

2015-01-01

This paper aims to uncover what patients really expect form ART, and also what infectious diseases doctors expect from a patient's ART regime, thus exploring an important side of adherence to ART. From July to November 2014 we have conducted a qualitative study regarding both patients' and doctors' expectations form the ART. We interviewed 30 patients and 4 doctors. We used semi-structured interviews that were conducted in the Psychosocial Compartment of the HIV/AIDS Regional Center in Iasi. The patients we interviewed came from all 6 counties in the Moldova area. Age varied from 16 years to 59 years; 55% were female and 45% male. 30% came from a rural area. The most common expectations that patients have regarding ART are: "to help me live", "not to make me feel sick", "to be easy to take (not to big, not a lot)", "not to show on the outside what I have on the inside". The infectious diseases doctors that we interviewed work in the HIV/AIDS Regional Center in Iasi. Their expectations regarding an ART regimen for patients were: "to reduce HIV viral load", "to increase CD4 cell count" and "to have minimal impact on the proper functioning of other organs". Patients consider themselves the only factors responsible for their own ART adherence in 56.6% of cases; 20% consider the doctor to be responsible for their adherence, 16.6% feel that their family, friends, and spouse are responsible, and 6.6% (2 patients) couldn't answer. Infectious diseases doctors considered that patients are 100% responsible for adhering to the antiretroviral therapy. In order to assure adherence to the ART it is important to explore both the doctor and the patient's perspective and to find ways to find a common ground in building a healthy relationship.

Prospective association of peer influence, school engagement, drinking expectancies, and parent expectations with drinking initiation among sixth graders.

Science.gov (United States)

Simons-Morton, Bruce

2004-02-01

Early initiation of drinking increases the lifetime risk for substance abuse and other serious health and social problems. An understanding of the predictors of early initiation is needed if successful preventive interventions are to be developed. Surveys were completed by 1009 sixth grade students at the beginning (Time 1) and end (Time 2) of the school year in four schools in one suburban school district. At Time 1, 55/1009 (5.5%) reported drinking in the past 30 days. From Time 1 to Time 2, the percentage of drinkers increase to 127/1009 (10.9%) of whom 101 were new drinkers. In multiple logistic regression analyses, school engagement was negatively associated and peer influence and drinking expectancies were positively associated with drinking initiation. A significant interaction was found between drinking expectancies and parental expectations. Among sixth graders with high drinking expectancies, those with low parental expectations for their behavior were 2.6 times more likely to start drinking than those with parents with high expectations for their behavior. Positive drinking expectancies were significantly associated with drinking initiation only among teens who believed their parents did not hold strong expectations for them not to drink. This finding held for boys and girls, Blacks and Whites and was particularly strong for Black youth. This finding provides new information about the moderating effect of parental expectations on drinking expectancies among early adolescents.

A Negative Selection Algorithm Based on Hierarchical Clustering of Self Set and its Application in Anomaly Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Chen

2011-08-01

Full Text Available A negative selection algorithm based on the hierarchical clustering of self set HC-RNSA is introduced in this paper. Several strategies are applied to improve the algorithm performance. First, the self data set is replaced by the self cluster centers to compare with the detector candidates in each cluster level. As the number of self clusters is much less than the self set size, the detector generation efficiency is improved. Second, during the detector generation process, the detector candidates are restricted to the lower coverage space to reduce detector redundancy. In the article, the problem that the distances between antigens coverage to a constant value in the high dimensional space is analyzed, accordingly the Principle Component Analysis (PCA method is used to reduce the data dimension, and the fractional distance function is employed to enhance the distinctiveness between the self and non-self antigens. The detector generation procedure is terminated when the expected non-self coverage is reached. The theory analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the detection rate of HC-RNSA is higher than that of the traditional negative selection algorithms while the false alarm rate and time cost are reduced.

Patient/parent expectations of orthodontic treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Obilade, Omolara Abiodun; da Costa, Oluranti Olatokunbo; Sanu, Oluwatosin Oluyemi

2017-03-01

Expectations of orthodontic treatment may differ between the patient and their parents, as the parents' expectations may not reflect those of the child. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine the expectations of patients and their parents. This was a clinic-based, comparative, cross-sectional study involving 110 patients aged between 10 and 19 years, as well as their accompanying parents or guardians. The expectations of both patients and parents were determined using a questionnaire developed by Sayers and Newton. Results showed that the expectations of the patients and parents differed significantly in a number of areas with the parents' expectations often exceeding those of the patients. Both patients and parents were found to be ignorant about some aspects of orthodontic treatment, with 47.3% of patients and 39.1% of parents unaware of the duration of orthodontic treatment and, as such, requiring information from their clinicians. The results highlight the importance of patient education and counseling as well as the need to focus on the individual patient and not assume that their expectations mirror those of the accompanying parent. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Can Parental Monitoring and Peer Management Reduce the Selection or Influence of Delinquent Peers? Testing the Question Using a Dynamic Social Network Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Tilton-Weaver, Lauree C.; Burk, William J.; Kerr, Margaret; Stattin, Håkan

2013-01-01

We tested whether parents can reduce affiliation with delinquent peers through 3 forms of peer management: soliciting information, monitoring rules, and communicating disapproval of peers. We examined whether peer management interrupted 2 peer processes: selection and influence of delinquent peers. Adolescents' feelings of being overcontrolled by…

Multicultural Differences in Women's Expectations of Birth.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Marianne F

2016-01-01

This review surveyed qualitative and quantitative studies to explore the expectations around birth that are held by women from different cultures. These studies are grouped according to expectations of personal control expectations of support from partner/others/family; expectations of carel behavior from providers such as nurses, doctors, and/or midwives; expectations about the health of the baby; and expectations about pain in childbirth. Discussed are the findings and the role that Western culture in medicine, power and privilege are noted in providing care to these women.

A Genomic Map of the Effects of Linked Selection in Drosophila.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eyal Elyashiv

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Natural selection at one site shapes patterns of genetic variation at linked sites. Quantifying the effects of "linked selection" on levels of genetic diversity is key to making reliable inference about demography, building a null model in scans for targets of adaptation, and learning about the dynamics of natural selection. Here, we introduce the first method that jointly infers parameters of distinct modes of linked selection, notably background selection and selective sweeps, from genome-wide diversity data, functional annotations and genetic maps. The central idea is to calculate the probability that a neutral site is polymorphic given local annotations, substitution patterns, and recombination rates. Information is then combined across sites and samples using composite likelihood in order to estimate genome-wide parameters of distinct modes of selection. In addition to parameter estimation, this approach yields a map of the expected neutral diversity levels along the genome. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we apply it to genome-wide resequencing data from 125 lines in Drosophila melanogaster and reliably predict diversity levels at the 1Mb scale. Our results corroborate estimates of a high fraction of beneficial substitutions in proteins and untranslated regions (UTR. They allow us to distinguish between the contribution of sweeps and other modes of selection around amino acid substitutions and to uncover evidence for pervasive sweeps in untranslated regions (UTRs. Our inference further suggests a substantial effect of other modes of linked selection and of adaptation in particular. More generally, we demonstrate that linked selection has had a larger effect in reducing diversity levels and increasing their variance in D. melanogaster than previously appreciated.

A Genomic Map of the Effects of Linked Selection in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Elyashiv, Eyal; Sattath, Shmuel; Hu, Tina T; Strutsovsky, Alon; McVicker, Graham; Andolfatto, Peter; Coop, Graham; Sella, Guy

2016-08-01

Natural selection at one site shapes patterns of genetic variation at linked sites. Quantifying the effects of "linked selection" on levels of genetic diversity is key to making reliable inference about demography, building a null model in scans for targets of adaptation, and learning about the dynamics of natural selection. Here, we introduce the first method that jointly infers parameters of distinct modes of linked selection, notably background selection and selective sweeps, from genome-wide diversity data, functional annotations and genetic maps. The central idea is to calculate the probability that a neutral site is polymorphic given local annotations, substitution patterns, and recombination rates. Information is then combined across sites and samples using composite likelihood in order to estimate genome-wide parameters of distinct modes of selection. In addition to parameter estimation, this approach yields a map of the expected neutral diversity levels along the genome. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we apply it to genome-wide resequencing data from 125 lines in Drosophila melanogaster and reliably predict diversity levels at the 1Mb scale. Our results corroborate estimates of a high fraction of beneficial substitutions in proteins and untranslated regions (UTR). They allow us to distinguish between the contribution of sweeps and other modes of selection around amino acid substitutions and to uncover evidence for pervasive sweeps in untranslated regions (UTRs). Our inference further suggests a substantial effect of other modes of linked selection and of adaptation in particular. More generally, we demonstrate that linked selection has had a larger effect in reducing diversity levels and increasing their variance in D. melanogaster than previously appreciated.

Selective hepatitis B virus vaccination has reduced hepatitis B virus transmission in the Netherlands.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan Hahné

Full Text Available BACKGROUND & AIMS: In the Netherlands, a selective hepatitis B virus (HBV vaccination programme started in 2002 for men having sex with men, drug users, commercial sex workers and heterosexuals with frequent partner changes. We assessed the programme's effectiveness to guide policy on HBV prevention. METHODS: We analysed reports of acute HBV infection in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2010 requesting serum from patients for HBV-genome S- and C-region sequencing. We used coalescence analyses to assess genetic diversity of nonimported genotype-A cases over time. RESULTS: 1687 patients with acute HBV infection were reported between 2004 and 2010. The incidence of reported acute HBV infection decreased from 1.8 to 1.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, mostly due to a reduction in the number of cases in men who have sex with men. Men were overrepresented among cases with an unknown route of transmission, especially among genotype A2 cases mainly associated with transmission through male homosexual contact. The genetic diversity of nonimported genotype-A strains obtained from men who have sex with men decreased from 2006 onwards, suggesting HBV incidence in this group decreased. CONCLUSIONS: The selective HBV-vaccination programme for behavioural high-risk groups very likely reduced the incidence of HBV infection in the Netherlands mainly by preventing HBV infections in men who have sex with men. A considerable proportion of cases in men who did not report risk behaviour was probably acquired through homosexual contact. Our findings support continuation of the programme, and adopting similar approaches in other countries where HBV transmission is focused in high-risk adults.

Selective Hepatitis B Virus Vaccination Has Reduced Hepatitis B Virus Transmission in The Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

Koedijk, Femke; van Ballegooijen, Marijn; Cremer, Jeroen; Bruisten, Sylvia; Coutinho, Roel

2013-01-01

Background & Aims In the Netherlands, a selective hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination programme started in 2002 for men having sex with men, drug users, commercial sex workers and heterosexuals with frequent partner changes. We assessed the programme's effectiveness to guide policy on HBV prevention. Methods We analysed reports of acute HBV infection in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2010 requesting serum from patients for HBV-genome S- and C-region sequencing. We used coalescence analyses to assess genetic diversity of nonimported genotype-A cases over time. Results 1687 patients with acute HBV infection were reported between 2004 and 2010. The incidence of reported acute HBV infection decreased from 1.8 to 1.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, mostly due to a reduction in the number of cases in men who have sex with men. Men were overrepresented among cases with an unknown route of transmission, especially among genotype A2 cases mainly associated with transmission through male homosexual contact. The genetic diversity of nonimported genotype-A strains obtained from men who have sex with men decreased from 2006 onwards, suggesting HBV incidence in this group decreased. Conclusions The selective HBV-vaccination programme for behavioural high-risk groups very likely reduced the incidence of HBV infection in the Netherlands mainly by preventing HBV infections in men who have sex with men. A considerable proportion of cases in men who did not report risk behaviour was probably acquired through homosexual contact. Our findings support continuation of the programme, and adopting similar approaches in other countries where HBV transmission is focused in high-risk adults. PMID:23922651

Patient expectations of emergency dental services: a qualitative interview study.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, R

2004-09-25

To describe the expectations of walk-in patients seeking emergency dental care out-of-hours. Consecutive patients attending two emergency dental clinics at weekends were interviewed prior to seeing the dentist. The audio-recorded interview transcripts were analysed using the "framework" method of applied qualitative data analysis. Forty-four walk-in emergency dental patients at a community-based dental clinic and a dental hospital emergency clinic at the weekend. In addition to symptom relief, the main desired outcome for emergency dental patients may be informational and psychological--especially reassurance that the problem is not serious, and reduced uncertainty about the cause of the pain. In general, patients' stated expectations for specific treatments (such as antibiotics, or tooth extraction) were not absolute: rather, they implied these expectations were conditional upon the dentist deciding they were necessary. Emergency dental services, some of which are still dominantly treatment-focused, should reflect that many emergency dental attenders want advice and reassurance as much as relief from symptoms. This reinforces the importance of effective and sympathetic dentist-patient communication within emergency or out-of-hours consultations. It also implies that dentists' skills in listening, explaining and reassuring should be captured in any patient satisfaction or outcome measure designed for this patient group.

Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

Determining health expectancies

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Robine, Jean-Marie

2003-01-01

... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

Parental Expectations of Their Adolescents' Teachers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tatar, Moshe; Horenczyk, Gabriel

2000-01-01

Examines parental expectations of their children's teachers through use of the Expectations of Teachers questionnaire. Participating parents (N=765) reported greater expectations for help and assistance, followed by teaching competence and fairness on the part of the teacher. Mothers were found to hold higher fairness, help, and assistance…

Duration on unemployment: geographic mobility and selectivity bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Goss, E P; Paul, C; Wilhite, A

1994-01-01

Modeling the factors affecting the duration of unemployment was found to be influenced by the inclusion of migration factors. Traditional models which did not control for migration factors were found to underestimate movers' probability of finding an acceptable job. The empirical test of the theory, based on the analysis of data on US household heads unemployed in 1982 and employed in 1982 and 1983, found that the cumulative probability of reemployment in the traditional model was .422 and in the migration selectivity model was .624 after 30 weeks of searching. In addition, controlling for selectivity eliminated the significance of the relationship between race and job search duration in the model. The relationship between search duration and the county unemployment rate in 1982 became statistically significant, and the relationship between search duration and 1980 population per square mile in the 1982 county of residence became statistically insignificant. The finding that non-Whites have a longer duration of unemployment can better be understood as non-Whites' lower geographic mobility and lack of greater job contacts. The statistical significance of a high unemployment rate in the home labor market reducing the probability of finding employment was more in keeping with expectations. The findings assumed that the duration of employment accurately reflected the length of job search. The sample was redrawn to exclude discouraged workers and the analysis was repeated. The findings were similar to the full sample, with the coefficient for migration variable being negative and statistically significant and the coefficient for alpha remaining positive and statistically significant. Race in the selectivity model remained statistically insignificant. The findings supported the Schwartz model hypothesizing that the expansion of the radius of the search would reduce the duration of unemployment. The exclusion of the migration factor misspecified the equation for

Application of Expectation Maximization Method for Purchase Decision-Making Support in Welding Branch

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kujawińska Agnieszka

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a study of applying the proposed method of cluster analysis to support purchasing decisions in the welding industry. The authors analyze the usefulness of the non-hierarchical method, Expectation Maximization (EM, in the selection of material (212 combinations of flux and wire melt for the SAW (Submerged Arc Welding method process. The proposed approach to cluster analysis is proved as useful in supporting purchase decisions.

Stretchable, Transparent, and Stretch-Unresponsive Capacitive Touch Sensor Array with Selectively Patterned Silver Nanowires/Reduced Graphene Oxide Electrodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tae Young; Hwang, Byeong-Ung; Kim, Bo-Yeong; Trung, Tran Quang; Nam, Yun Hyoung; Kim, Do-Nyun; Eom, Kilho; Lee, Nae-Eung

2017-05-31

Stretchable and transparent touch sensors are essential input devices for future stretchable transparent electronics. Capacitive touch sensors with a simple structure of only two electrodes and one dielectric are an established technology in current rigid electronics. However, the development of stretchable and transparent capacitive touch sensors has been limited due to changes in capacitance resulting from dimensional changes in elastomeric dielectrics and difficulty in obtaining stretchable transparent electrodes that are stable under large strains. Herein, a stretch-unresponsive stretchable and transparent capacitive touch sensor array was demonstrated by employing stretchable and transparent electrodes with a simple selective-patterning process and by carefully selecting dielectric and substrate materials with low strain responsivity. A selective-patterning process was used to embed a stretchable and transparent silver nanowires/reduced graphene oxide (AgNWs/rGO) electrode line into a polyurethane (PU) dielectric layer on a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) substrate using oxygen plasma treatment. This method provides the ability to directly fabricate thin film electrode lines on elastomeric substrates and can be used in conventional processes employed in stretchable electronics. We used a dielectric (PU) with a Poisson's ratio smaller than that of the substrate (PDMS), which prevented changes in the capacitance resulting from stretching of the sensor. The stretch-unresponsive touch sensing capability of our transparent and stretchable capacitive touch sensor has great potential in wearable electronics and human-machine interfaces.

Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

OpenAIRE

Christopher D Carroll

2002-01-01

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

Expectant parents’ experiences of parental education within the antenatal health service

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Norling-Gustafsson A

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Ann Norling-Gustafsson1,2, Katarina Skaghammar1,2, Annsofie Adolfsson1,31School of life Sciences, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden; 2Primary Health, MVC, Karlsborg, Sweden; 3Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Skaraborg Hospital, Skövde, SwedenAbstract: Being an expectant parent is a life changing event and it is something that most people will experience in their lifetime. Many people who are parents for the first time will participate in parenting education. Most of the previous studies associated with parenting education focus on subjects such as birth outcome and breastfeeding. The purpose of this study is to focus on the less investigated aspect of the parents’ experience of participating in parenting education with Maternal Healthcare Services (MVC. A qualitative, phenomenological, hermeneutical method was selected to be used to analyze our findings and we used the statements of twenty participants to accumulate enough material to develop it into twelve sub-themes and five themes. The results of this study show that these expectant parents had few or no expectations of the parenting education that they were going to participate in. Generally speaking the parents seemed to be satisfied with the program. They described their reasons for participating as a chance to get together with other people in similar circumstances and to share information and they found a midwife to be a trustworthy professional person to confirm the information that was available to them from other sources.Keywords: parent education, parents' experiences, parents’ expectations

Positive Selection and Centrality in the Yeast and Fly Protein-Protein Interaction Networks

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Sandip Chakraborty

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Proteins within a molecular network are expected to be subject to different selective pressures depending on their relative hierarchical positions. However, it is not obvious what genes within a network should be more likely to evolve under positive selection. On one hand, only mutations at genes with a relatively high degree of control over adaptive phenotypes (such as those encoding highly connected proteins are expected to be “seen” by natural selection. On the other hand, a high degree of pleiotropy at these genes is expected to hinder adaptation. Previous analyses of the human protein-protein interaction network have shown that genes under long-term, recurrent positive selection (as inferred from interspecific comparisons tend to act at the periphery of the network. It is unknown, however, whether these trends apply to other organisms. Here, we show that long-term positive selection has preferentially targeted the periphery of the yeast interactome. Conversely, in flies, genes under positive selection encode significantly more connected and central proteins. These observations are not due to covariation of genes’ adaptability and centrality with confounding factors. Therefore, the distribution of proteins encoded by genes under recurrent positive selection across protein-protein interaction networks varies from one species to another.

Increased Educational Attainment among U.S. Mothers and their Children's Academic Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Augustine, Jennifer

2017-12-01

Existing research provides strong evidence that children with more educated parents have higher academic expectations for themselves, but has yet to consider how an increase in the education of lower educated mothers might alter the expectations of their children. In light of the historic increase in U.S. mothers' pursuit of additional education, this study investigates this timely question using data from a nationally representative, intergenerational sample of U.S. children and mothers participating in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth ( n mothers = 3,265; n children = 8,027). Combining random and fixed effects procedures, the findings revealed that that an increase in mothers' educational attainment is linked to an increase in their children's expectations to earn a Bachelor's degree. Increased maternal education did not, however, buffer against the risk that children will downgrade these expectations upon approaching the end of high school. These results have theoretical importance to traditional models of status attainment, which typically view parental education as a stable feature of family background; extend a small but burgeoning literature that explores whether and why increased maternal education improves the mobility prospects of their children; and speak to current two-generation policy approaches that aim to leverage trends in mothers education to reduce inequality for future generations.

Psyche Mission: Scientific Models and Instrument Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Polanskey, C. A.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Bell, J. F., III; Lawrence, D. J.; Marchi, S.; Park, R. S.; Russell, C. T.; Weiss, B. P.

2017-12-01

NASA has chosen to explore (16) Psyche with their 14th Discovery-class mission. Psyche is a 226-km diameter metallic asteroid hypothesized to be the exposed core of a planetesimal that was stripped of its rocky mantle by multiple hit and run collisions in the early solar system. The spacecraft launch is planned for 2022 with arrival at the asteroid in 2026 for 21 months of operations. The Psyche investigation has five primary scientific objectives: A. Determine whether Psyche is a core, or if it is unmelted material. B. Determine the relative ages of regions of Psyche's surface. C. Determine whether small metal bodies incorporate the same light elements as are expected in the Earth's high-pressure core. D. Determine whether Psyche was formed under conditions more oxidizing or more reducing than Earth's core. E. Characterize Psyche's topography. The mission's task was to select the appropriate instruments to meet these objectives. However, exploring a metal world, rather than one made of ice, rock, or gas, requires development of new scientific models for Psyche to support the selection of the appropriate instruments for the payload. If Psyche is indeed a planetary core, we expect that it should have a detectable magnetic field. However, the strength of the magnetic field can vary by orders of magnitude depending on the formational history of Psyche. The implications of both the extreme low-end and the high-end predictions impact the magnetometer and mission design. For the imaging experiment, what can the team expect for the morphology of a heavily impacted metal body? Efforts are underway to further investigate the differences in crater morphology between high velocity impacts into metal and rock to be prepared to interpret the images of Psyche when they are returned. Finally, elemental composition measurements at Psyche using nuclear spectroscopy encompass a new and unexplored phase space of gamma-ray and neutron measurements. We will present some end

Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Congdon, Peter

2014-12-20

Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Violence deaths and its impact on life expectancy: a comparison between Mexico and Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vega-López, María Guadalupe; Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach

2017-09-01

Using official data, this study analyzed violent deaths (homicide, suicide, events of undetermined intent and deaths due to legal intervention) in Brazil and Mexico in the three-year periods 2002-2004 and 2012-14, the impact of these causes of death on life expectancy in both countries and the role of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL). Abridged life tables were constructed for both countries for both periods. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL between zero and 80 years by selected causes and age groups were calculated for each triennium. The leading cause of YLEL among men was homicide in both periods in Brazil (1.5 years) and in the second period in Mexico (one year). Violent deaths (VD) accounted for around 16% of YLEL in Brazil and 13% in Mexico in 2012-2014. Among women, YLEL due to homicides and suicides showed the greatest relative increase in both countries, although VD accounted for barely 3% of total YLEL. The highest percentage of YLEL due to VDwas found among the 15 to 29 year age groups in both countries and for both sexes. The increase in rates of VD in Mexico, above all among young people, has curbed further increases in life expectancy in recent years, especially among men. Likewise, the high rates of VD in Brazil in both periods have hindered the growth of life expectancy.

Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

2013-01-01

Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

Learning More than Expected: The Influence of Teachers' Attitudes on Children's Learning Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Youn, Minjong

2016-01-01

This study employed the concept of teachers' sense of responsibility for students' learning to examine the extent to which the gap in math learning growth is reduced and whether such attitudes can improve children's learning outcomes to a degree that is above and beyond their expected achievement relative to their initial academic skills. Analysis…

Expected utility without utility

OpenAIRE

Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

1996-01-01

This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

Impact of particulate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Coyle, Douglas; Stieb, Dave; Burnett, Richard T; DeCivita, Paul; Krewski, Daniel; Chen, Yue; Thun, Michael J

Air pollution and premature death are important public health concerns. Analyses have repeatedly demonstrated that airborne particles are associated with increased mortality and estimates have been used to forecast the impact on life expectancy. In this analysis, we draw upon data from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort and literature on utility-based measures of quality of life in relation to health status to more fully quantify the effects of air pollution on mortality in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy. The analysis was conducted within a decision analytic model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Outcomes were estimated based on projections of the Canadian population. A one-unit reduction in sulfate air pollution would yield a mean annual increase in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) of 20,960, with gains being greater for individuals with lower educational status and for males compared to females. This suggests that the impact of reductions in sulfate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy is substantial. Interpretation of the results is unclear. However, the potential gains in QALYs from reduced air pollutants can be contrasted to the costs of policies to bring about such reductions. Based on a tentative threshold for the value of health benefits, analysis suggests that an investment in Canada of over 1 billion dollars per annum would be an efficient use of resources if it could be demonstrated that this would reduce sulfate concentrations in ambient air by 1 microg/m(3). Further analysis can assess the efficiency of targeting such initiatives to communities that are most likely to benefit.

PEM-PCA: A Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA Face Recognition Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanokmon Rujirakul

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Principal component analysis or PCA has been traditionally used as one of the feature extraction techniques in face recognition systems yielding high accuracy when requiring a small number of features. However, the covariance matrix and eigenvalue decomposition stages cause high computational complexity, especially for a large database. Thus, this research presents an alternative approach utilizing an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to reduce the determinant matrix manipulation resulting in the reduction of the stages’ complexity. To improve the computational time, a novel parallel architecture was employed to utilize the benefits of parallelization of matrix computation during feature extraction and classification stages including parallel preprocessing, and their combinations, so-called a Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA architecture. Comparing to a traditional PCA and its derivatives, the results indicate lower complexity with an insignificant difference in recognition precision leading to high speed face recognition systems, that is, the speed-up over nine and three times over PCA and Parallel PCA.

PEM-PCA: a parallel expectation-maximization PCA face recognition architecture.

Science.gov (United States)

Rujirakul, Kanokmon; So-In, Chakchai; Arnonkijpanich, Banchar

2014-01-01

Principal component analysis or PCA has been traditionally used as one of the feature extraction techniques in face recognition systems yielding high accuracy when requiring a small number of features. However, the covariance matrix and eigenvalue decomposition stages cause high computational complexity, especially for a large database. Thus, this research presents an alternative approach utilizing an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to reduce the determinant matrix manipulation resulting in the reduction of the stages' complexity. To improve the computational time, a novel parallel architecture was employed to utilize the benefits of parallelization of matrix computation during feature extraction and classification stages including parallel preprocessing, and their combinations, so-called a Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA architecture. Comparing to a traditional PCA and its derivatives, the results indicate lower complexity with an insignificant difference in recognition precision leading to high speed face recognition systems, that is, the speed-up over nine and three times over PCA and Parallel PCA.

Potential years lost and life expectancy in adults with newly diagnosed epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Granbichler, Claudia A; Zimmermann, Georg; Oberaigner, Willi; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Ndayisaba, Jean-Pierre; Taylor, Alexandra; Luef, Gerhard; Bathke, Arne C; Trinka, Eugen

2017-11-01

Studies using relative measures, such as standardized mortality ratios, have shown that patients with epilepsy have an increased mortality. Reports on more direct and absolute measure such as life expectancy are sparse. We report potential years lost and how life expectancy has changed over 40 years in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy. We analyzed life expectancy in a cohort of adult patients diagnosed with definite epilepsy between 1970 and 2010. Those with brain tumor as cause of epilepsy were excluded. By retrospective probabilistic record linkage, living or death status was derived from the national death registry. We estimated life expectancy by a Weibull regression model using gender, age at diagnosis, epilepsy etiology, and year of diagnosis as covariates at time of epilepsy diagnosis, and 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after diagnosis. Results were compared to the general population, and 95% confidence intervals are given. There were 249 deaths (105 women, age at death 19.0-104.0 years) in 1,112 patients (11,978.4 person-years, 474 women, 638 men). A substantial decrease in life expectancy was observed for only a few subgroups, strongly depending on epilepsy etiology and time of diagnosis: time of life lost was highest in patients with symptomatic epilepsy diagnosed between 1970 and 1980; the impact declined with increasing time from diagnosis. Over half of the analyzed subgroups did not differ significantly from the general population. This effect was reversed in the later decades, and life expectancy was prolonged in some subgroups, reaching a maximum in those with newly diagnosed idiopathic and cryptogenic epilepsy between 2001 and 2010. Life expectancy is reduced in symptomatic epilepsies. However, in other subgroups, a prolonged life expectancy was found, which has not been reported previously. Reasons may be manifold and call for further study. © 2017 The Authors. Epilepsia published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International

Selective chemical stripping

Science.gov (United States)

Malavallon, Olivier

1995-04-01

At the end of the 80's, some of the large European airlines expressed a wish for paint systems with improved strippability on their aircraft, allowing the possibility to strip down to the primer without altering it, using 'mild' chemical strippers based on methylene chloride. These improvements were initially intended to reduce costs and stripping cycle times while facilitating rapid repainting, and this without the need to change the conventionally used industrial facilities. The level of in-service performance of these paint systems was to be the same as the previous ones. Requirements related to hygiene safety and the environment were added to these initial requirements. To meet customers' expectations, Aerospatiale, within the Airbus Industry GIE, formed a work group. This group was given the task of specifying, following up the elaboration and qualifying the paint systems allowing requirements to be met, in relation with the paint suppliers and the airlines. The analysis made in this report showed the interest of transferring as far upstream as possible (to paint conception level) most of the technical constraints related to stripping. Thus, the concept retained for the paint system, allowing selective chemical stripping, is a 3-coat system with characteristics as near as possible to the previously used paints.

Accuracy and responses of genomic selection on key traits in apple breeding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muranty, Hélène; Troggio, Michela; Sadok, Ben Inès; Rifaï, Al Mehdi; Auwerkerken, Annemarie; Banchi, E.; Velasco, Riccardo; Stevanato, P.; Weg, van de W.E.; Guardo, Di M.; Kumar, S.; Laurens, François; Bink, M.C.A.M.

2015-01-01

The application of genomic selection in fruit tree crops is expected to enhance breeding efficiency by increasing prediction accuracy, increasing selection intensity and decreasing generation interval. The objectives of this study were to assess the accuracy of prediction and selection response in

Non-adaptive territory selection by a bird with exceptionally long parental care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radosław Włodarczyk

2016-03-01

Full Text Available High-quality territories are expected to provide greater fitness return for breeding individuals and, thus, are likely to have higher long-term occupation rate in comparison to low-quality territories. However, if environmental and ecological cues used for territory selection cannot reliably predict true territory quality, a mismatch between preferences and fitness may occur. We suggest that this kind of non-adaptive territory selection is more likely in species with long reproductive cycles, as a long time interval between territory establishment and young fledgling should reduce predictability of conditions during the critical stages of brood care. In this study, we investigated adaptiveness of territory selection in a migratory bird with exceptionally long parental care, the mute swan Cygnus olor, which requires over four months to complete the entire reproductive cycle from egg laying to young fledging. For this purpose, we collected information on the long-term (10–19 years occupancy of 222 swan breeding territories and correlated it with reproductive performance (n = 1,345 breeding attempts and body condition of breeding adults. We found that long-term occupancy positively correlated with the timing of breeding, suggesting that individuals settled earlier in the attractive, frequently occupied territories. By contrast, we found no relationship between territory occupancy and reproductive output (hatching and fledging success or adult body condition. The results indicate that at the time of territory selection swans might not be able to reliably assess territory quality, likely due to: (1 exceptionally long period of parental care, which reduces temporal correlation between the conditions at the time of territory selection and conditions during chick rearing; and (2 unpredictability of human-related activities that had a major impact on reproductive output of swan pairs in our population.

The Long-Term Effectiveness of a Selective, Personality-Targeted Prevention Program in Reducing Alcohol Use and Related Harms: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Nicola C.; Conrod, Patricia J.; Slade, Tim; Carragher, Natacha; Champion, Katrina E.; Barrett, Emma L.; Kelly, Erin V.; Nair, Natasha K.; Stapinski, Lexine; Teesson, Maree

2016-01-01

Background: This study investigated the long-term effectiveness of Preventure, a selective personality-targeted prevention program, in reducing the uptake of alcohol, harmful use of alcohol, and alcohol-related harms over a 3-year period. Methods: A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness of Preventure.…

Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David P. G. van den Berg

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

Correlates of healthy life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Md Shariful; Mondal, Md Nazrul Islam; Tareque, Md Ismail; Rahman, Md Aminur; Hoque, Md Nazrul; Ahmed, Md Munsur; Khan, Hafiz T A

2018-04-11

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth is an important indicator of health status and quality of life of a country's population. However, little is known about the determinants of HALE as yet globally or even country-specific level. Thus, we examined the factors that are associated with HALE at birth in low- and lower-middle-income countries. In accordance with the World Bank (WB) classification seventy-nine low- and lower-middle-income countries were selected for the study. Data on HALE, demographic, socioeconomic, social structural, health, and environmental factors from several reliable sources, such as the World Health Organization, the United Nations Development Program, Population Reference Bureau, WB, Heritage Foundation, Transparency International, Freedom House, and International Center for Prison Studies were obtained as selected countries. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were performed to reach the research objectives. The lowest and highest HALE were observed in Sierra Leone (44.40 years) and in Sri Lanka (67.00 years), respectively. The mean years of schooling, total fertility rate (TFR), physician density, gross national income per capita, health expenditure, economic freedom, carbon dioxide emission rate, freedom of the press, corruption perceptions index, prison population rate, and achieving a level of health-related millennium development goals (MDGs) were revealed as the correlates of HALE. Among all the correlates, the mean years of schooling, TFR, freedom of the press, and achieving a level of health-related MDGs were found to be the most influential factors. To increase the HALE in low- and lower-middle-income countries, we suggest that TFR is to be reduced as well as to increase the mean years of schooling, freedom of the press, and the achievement of a level of health-related MDGs.

A prospective randomised control study: reduction of children's pain expectation using a picture book during blood withdrawal.

Science.gov (United States)

Zieger, B; Praskova, M; Busse, E; Barth, M

2013-05-01

Blood drawings are very painful and stressful for children. In a prospective control group study we investigated if using a picture book could reduce the children's pain expectation. In addition, the children's pain experience and the observed pain behaviour was monitored. Block-randomization were used and 120 children at the age of 6-12 years who were visiting the general pediatric and coagulation outpatient clinics were included in this study. Pain expectation and experience were assessed with the Face-Pain-Scale-Revised and the pain behavior with the Faces-Legs-Activity-Cry-Consolability Scale. Multivariate covariance analysis was used for data analysis. The results showed that with statistical controlling the influence of the primary pain expectation (baseline) the pain expectation before blood withdrawal was reduced significantly (p=0.001) and effectively (ES=0.56) using the picture book. Children who received no local anaesthesia reported that they felt less pain during blood drawing after reading the picture book. The few children with local anaesthesia reported no benefit from the picture book. The observed use of local anaesthesia was very heterogeneous. The results recommend the usage of this picture book in everyday practice, if the use of local anaesthesia could not be used in an appropriate way. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Learning big data with Amazon Elastic MapReduce

CERN Document Server

Singh, Amarkant

2014-01-01

This book is aimed at developers and system administrators who want to learn about Big Data analysis using Amazon Elastic MapReduce. Basic Java programming knowledge is required. You should be comfortable with using command-line tools. Prior knowledge of AWS, API, and CLI tools is not assumed. Also, no exposure to Hadoop and MapReduce is expected.

Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

The benefit of expecting no conflict--Stronger influence of self-generated than cue-induced conflict expectations on Stroop performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemper, Maike; Gaschler, Robert; Schwager, Sabine; Schubert, Torsten

2016-01-01

The role of expectations in sequential adaptation to cognitive conflict has been debated controversially in prior studies. On the one hand, a sequential congruency effect (SCE) has been reported for trials in which participants expect a repetition of conflict level. On the other hand, conflict level expectations vs. the SCE have been shown to develop differentially across runs of trials with the same conflict level, arguing against the theory that the SCE is purely driven by expectation. The current verbal Stroop experiment addresses this controversy by two means. First, we tested which specific type of expectation (cue-induced expectations vs. self-generated predictions) might affect the SCE. Second, we assessed the impact of expectation on the SCE as well as the development of SCE and expectation with congruency level run length in one design. We observed a dissociation between expectations and SCE, demonstrating that the SCE is not exclusively driven by expectations. At the same time, we found evidence that (self-generated) expectations do have an impact on the SCE. Our data document especially high performance for one specific combination of task events: congruent trial accompanied by congruent prediction and conflict level repetition. Our results are in line with theories attributing conflict adaptation effects to the "adaption to the lack of conflict". We discuss our results in a broader context of theories about conflict monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Emotional expectations influence neural sensitivity to fearful faces in humans:An event-related potential study

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2010-01-01

The present study tested whether neural sensitivity to salient emotional facial expressions was influenced by emotional expectations induced by a cue that validly predicted the expression of a subsequently presented target face. Event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by fearful and neutral faces were recorded while participants performed a gender discrimination task under cued (‘expected’) and uncued (‘unexpected’) conditions. The behavioral results revealed that accuracy was lower for fearful compared with neutral faces in the unexpected condition, while accuracy was similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. ERP data revealed increased amplitudes in the P2 component and 200–250 ms interval for unexpected fearful versus neutral faces. By contrast, ERP responses were similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. These findings indicate that human neural sensitivity to fearful faces is modulated by emotional expectations. Although the neural system is sensitive to unpredictable emotionally salient stimuli, sensitivity to salient stimuli is reduced when these stimuli are predictable.

Spectrally selective glazings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-08-01

Spectrally selective glazing is window glass that permits some portions of the solar spectrum to enter a building while blocking others. This high-performance glazing admits as much daylight as possible while preventing transmission of as much solar heat as possible. By controlling solar heat gains in summer, preventing loss of interior heat in winter, and allowing occupants to reduce electric lighting use by making maximum use of daylight, spectrally selective glazing significantly reduces building energy consumption and peak demand. Because new spectrally selective glazings can have a virtually clear appearance, they admit more daylight and permit much brighter, more open views to the outside while still providing the solar control of the dark, reflective energy-efficient glass of the past. This Federal Technology Alert provides detailed information and procedures for Federal energy managers to consider spectrally selective glazings. The principle of spectrally selective glazings is explained. Benefits related to energy efficiency and other architectural criteria are delineated. Guidelines are provided for appropriate application of spectrally selective glazing, and step-by-step instructions are given for estimating energy savings. Case studies are also presented to illustrate actual costs and energy savings. Current manufacturers, technology users, and references for further reading are included for users who have questions not fully addressed here.

Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

2017-12-01

The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Stochastic sampling of quadrature grids for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values

Science.gov (United States)

López Ríos, Pablo; Monserrat, Bartomeu; Needs, Richard J.

2018-02-01

The thermal lines method for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values of electronic observables [B. Monserrat, Phys. Rev. B 93, 014302 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevB.93.014302] was recently proposed as a physically motivated approximation offering balance between the accuracy of direct Monte Carlo integration and the low computational cost of using local quadratic approximations. In this paper we reformulate thermal lines as a stochastic implementation of quadrature-grid integration, analyze the analytical form of its bias, and extend the method to multiple-point quadrature grids applicable to any factorizable harmonic or anharmonic nuclear wave function. The bias incurred by thermal lines is found to depend on the local form of the expectation value, and we demonstrate that the use of finer quadrature grids along selected modes can eliminate this bias, while still offering an ˜30 % lower computational cost than direct Monte Carlo integration in our tests.

Using business process redesign to reduce wait times at a university hospital in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Elkhuizen, Sylvia G; Burger, Matthe P M; Jonkers, Rene E; Limburg, Martien; Klazinga, Niek; Bakker, Piet J M

2007-06-01

Business process redesign (BPR) has been applied to implement more customer-focused and cost-effective care. In 2002, two pilot projects to improve patient care processes for two specific patient groups were conducted at the Academic Medical Center, a 1,000-bed university hospital in Amsterdam. The BPR consisted of process analysis, identification of bottlenecks and goals for redesign, selection of interventions, and evaluation of effects. After identifying and selecting interventions with the greatest expected benefits, changes were implemented and effects were evaluated. For gynecologic oncology patients, access time (from telephone call to first visit) was reduced from 14 days to changes in communication and planning were sufficient to eliminate bottlenecks in the gynecologic oncology project, the dyspnea project required a radical redesign of processes. Experience since these projects suggests that process redesign may have only marginal impact when the greatest bottleneck occurs, as was the case for the two BPR projects, at the point of access to central diagnostic facilities.

Attitudes and values expected of public health nursing students at graduation: A delphi study.

Science.gov (United States)

Okura, Mika; Takizawa, Hiroko

2018-06-01

The skills and knowledge of the competencies expected of public health nursing (PHN) students at graduation have been clarified; however, the attitudes and values have not yet been studied in Japan. The objective of this study was to identify and reach a consensus among experts on the attitudes and values expected of PHN students at graduation. This survey was conducted as a two-stage Delphi study. We selected the following experts: 248 teachers in the faculty of public health nursing at a university as academic experts, and 250 public health nurses who were also experienced clinical instructors as clinical experts. The round 1 mailed survey was conducted using a questionnaire about the necessity and importance of attitudes and values, and 211 experts responded (42.4%, clinical; n = 124, academic; n = 87). In the Round 2 survey, the experts consisted of 60.2% of the round 1 participants (clinical; n = 73, academic; n = 54). Descriptive statistics were used for multiple imputation. We identified a total of 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, and reached ≥90% consensus for most items (except for one). Regarding the expected achievement level at graduation, there was no difference between clinical and academic experts except for one item. Consensus was clearly achieved for 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, as well as importance and expected achievement level at graduation. In the future, it is important to examine strategies that can effectively develop these attitudes and values through basic and continuous education. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agrofuels policy in Colombia: expectations and rural development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mejia Alfonso Sandra Liliana

2011-04-01

Full Text Available

The debate over the current biofuels policy has two positions: first, those considering it as an alternative aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels and contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming; secondly, those who argue about the distributional conflicts that can bring socio-environmental adoption of these policies at local level. This article presents the national policy settings and scenarios of biofuel production based on agro-energy projects, which are used raw materials such as palm oil to produce biodiesel, sugar cane, sugar loaf cane and cassava for the distillation of ethanol. Thus regional dynamics observed that intersect with the new rural environment in the Colombian countryside connection between the local and global that generate expectations to achieve rural development goals.

Comparing Patterns of Natural Selection across Species Using Selective Signatures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shapiro, Jesse; Alm, Eric J.

2007-12-01

Comparing gene expression profiles over many different conditions has led to insights that were not obvious from single experiments. In the same way, comparing patterns of natural selection across a set of ecologically distinct species may extend what can be learned from individual genome-wide surveys. Toward this end, we show how variation in protein evolutionary rates, after correcting for genome-wide effects such as mutation rate and demographic factors, can be used to estimate the level and types of natural selection acting on genes across different species. We identify unusually rapidly and slowly evolving genes, relative to empirically derived genome-wide and gene family-specific background rates for 744 core protein families in 30 c-proteobacterial species. We describe the pattern of fast or slow evolution across species as the"selective signature" of a gene. Selective signatures represent aprofile of selection across species that is predictive of gene function: pairs of genes with correlated selective signatures are more likely to share the same cellular function, and genes in the same pathway can evolve in concert. For example,glycolysis and phenylalanine metabolism genes evolve rapidly in Idiomarina loihiensis, mirroring an ecological shift in carbon source from sugars to amino acids. In a broader context, our results suggest that the genomic landscape is organized into functional modules even at the level of natural selection, and thus it may be easier than expected to understand the complex evolutionary pressures on a cell.

Comparing Patterns of Natural Selection Across Species Using Selective Signatures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alm, Eric J.; Shapiro, B. Jesse; Alm, Eric J.

2007-12-18

Comparing gene expression profiles over many different conditions has led to insights that were not obvious from single experiments. In the same way, comparing patterns of natural selection across a set of ecologically distinct species may extend what can be learned from individual genome-wide surveys. Toward this end, we show how variation in protein evolutionary rates, after correcting for genome-wide effects such as mutation rate and demographic factors, can be used to estimate the level and types of natural selection acting on genes across different species. We identify unusually rapidly and slowly evolving genes, relative to empirically derived genome-wide and gene family-specific background rates for 744 core protein families in 30 gamma-proteobacterial species. We describe the pattern of fast or slow evolution across species as the 'selective signature' of a gene. Selective signatures represent a profile of selection across species that is predictive of gene function: pairs of genes with correlated selective signatures are more likely to share the same cellular function, and genes in the same pathway can evolve in concert. For example, glycolysis and phenylalanine metabolism genes evolve rapidly in Idiomarina loihiensis, mirroring an ecological shift in carbon source from sugars to amino acids. In a broader context, our results suggest that the genomic landscape is organized into functional modules even at the level of natural selection, and thus it may be easier than expected to understand the complex evolutionary pressures on a cell.

Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors reduces fertility in men

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørr, L; Bennedsen, Birgit; Fedder, Jens

2016-01-01

Clinical review of the present data on the effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on male fertility was the objective of the study. PubMed and Scopus were searched for publications in English or Danish and reviewed. Human trials, animal studies and in vitro studies were included...

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

How Much Does Inbreeding Reduce Heterozygosity? Empirical Results from Aedes aegypti

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Jeffrey R.; Evans, Benjamin R.

2017-01-01

Deriving strains of mosquitoes with reduced genetic variation is useful, if not necessary, for many genetic studies. Inbreeding is the standard way of achieving this. Full-sib inbreeding the mosquito Aedes aegypti for seven generations reduced heterozygosity to 72% of the initial heterozygosity in contrast to the expected 13%. This deviation from expectations is likely due to high frequencies of deleterious recessive alleles that, given the number of markers studied (27,674 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]), must be quite densely spread in the genome. PMID:27799643

Response to selection in finite locus models with nonadditive effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Esfandyari, Hadi; Henryon, Mark; Berg, Peer; Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Bijma, Piter; Sørensen, Anders Christian

2017-01-01

Under the finite-locus model in the absence of mutation, the additive genetic variation is expected to decrease when directional selection is acting on a population, according to quantitative-genetic theory. However, some theoretical studies of selection suggest that the level of additive

Feature selection is the ReliefF for multiple instance learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zafra, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Ventura, S.

2010-01-01

Dimensionality reduction and feature selection in particular are known to be of a great help for making supervised learning more effective and efficient. Many different feature selection techniques have been proposed for the traditional settings, where each instance is expected to have a label. In

The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

Autonomous component carrier selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Luis Guilherme Uzeda; Pedersen, Klaus; Mogensen, Preben

2009-01-01

management and efficient system operation. Due to the expected large number of user-deployed cells, centralized network planning becomes unpractical and new scalable alternatives must be sought. In this article, we propose a fully distributed and scalable solution to the interference management problem...... in local areas, basing our study case on LTE-Advanced. We present extensive network simulation results to demonstrate that a simple and robust interference management scheme, called autonomous component carrier selection allows each cell to select the most attractive frequency configuration; improving...... the experience of all users and not just the few best ones; while overall cell capacity is not compromised....

Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions: an application to vestibular schwannoma management.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Steven W; Aranda, Derick; Driscoll, Colin L W; Parsa, Andrew T

2010-02-01

Complex medical decision making obligates tradeoff assessments among treatment outcomes expectations, but an accessible tool to perform the necessary analysis is conspicuously absent. We aimed to demonstrate methodology and feasibility of adapting conjoint analysis for mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions in vestibular schwannoma (VS) management. Prospective. Tertiary medical center and US-based otologists/neurotologists. Treatment preference profiles among VS stakeholders-61 younger and 74 older prospective patients, 61 observation patients, and 60 surgeons-were assessed for the synthetic VS case scenario of a 10-mm tumor in association with useful hearing and normal facial function. Treatment attribute utility. Conjoint analysis attribute levels were set in accordance to the results of a meta-analysis. Forty-five case series were disaggregated to formulate microsurgery facial nerve and hearing preservation outcomes expectations models. Attribute utilities were computed and mapped to the realistic treatment choices of translabyrinthine craniotomy, middle fossa craniotomy, and gamma knife radiosurgery. Among the treatment attributes of likelihoods of causing deafness, temporary facial weakness for 2 months, and incurable cancer within 20 years, and recovery time, permanent deafness was less important to tumor surgeons, and temporary facial weakness was more important to tumor surgeons and observation patients (Wilcoxon rank-sum, p knife radiosurgery. Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions for a synthetic clinical scenario revealed inhomogeneous drivers of choice selection among study cohorts. Medical decision engines that analyze personal preferences of outcomes expectations for VS and many other diseases may be developed to promote shared decision making among health care stakeholders and transparency in the informed consent process.

Women's expectations of breast reconstruction following mastectomy for breast cancer: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Flitcroft, Kathy; Brennan, Meagan; Spillane, Andrew

2017-08-01

Breast reconstruction (BR) makes an important positive contribution to the quality of life of many women who have undergone mastectomy for breast cancer. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the evidence for possible relationships between women's expectations of BR and their satisfaction with outcomes to inform and facilitate improved communication about BR options prior to initial surgery. A systematic review of the literature reporting expectations of BR published between 1 January 1994 and 6 March 2017 identified 2107 initial search results. Twenty-one publications, reporting 20 studies (2288 participants), satisfied the selection criteria. Information on study aim and time frame, participation rate, design/methods, limitations/bias, results and conclusions, as well as participant clinical and demographic information, was reported. An overall quality score was generated for each study. Four of five studies that quantified expectations and satisfaction found a positive relationship between the two. This may indicate a possible trend, but as 16 of the 21 included publications did not provide quantifiable data, no firm conclusions are possible. Our findings have important implications for policy and practice which are applicable to medical decision-making more broadly. There is a clear need to utilise accurate and consistent measures of patient-reported expectations and to educate both patients and health practitioners about the importance of informed discussion about treatment options. This is particularly salient for women facing a choice about BR, a major breast cancer survivorship decision. Routine use of an expectations checklist in pre-operative consultations may be useful.

Variety of factors involved in selecting PV components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiener, M.

1996-01-01

Although solar electricity has been used for over ten years in oil and gas applications, there still seems to be some confusion concerning the selection of components for solar electric systems. This paper reviews the design and selection of materials for solar arrays, batteries, and controls and cables. It also provides information on determining expected service life and overall system integration

Working memory accuracy for multiple targets is driven by reward expectation and stimulus contrast with different time-courses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klink, P. Christiaan; Jeurissen, Danique; Theeuwes, Jan; Denys, Damiaan; Roelfsema, Pieter R.

2017-01-01

The richness of sensory input dictates that the brain must prioritize and select information for further processing and storage in working memory. Stimulus salience and reward expectations influence this prioritization but their relative contributions and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood.

Selective Reproduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendsen, Mette N.

2015-01-01

This article employs a multi-species perspective in investigating how life's worth is negotiated in the field of neonatology in Denmark. It does so by comparing decision-making processes about human infants in the Danish neonatal intensive care unit with those associated with piglets who serve as...... as expectations within linear or predictive time frames are key markers in both sites. Exploring selective reproductive processes across human infants and research piglets can help us uncover aspects of the cultural production of viability that we would not otherwise see or acknowledge....

Decomposing change in life expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

2003-01-01

We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherman, M T; Seth, A K; Barrett, A B; Kanai, R

2015-09-01

The influential framework of 'predictive processing' suggests that prior probabilistic expectations influence, or even constitute, perceptual contents. This notion is evidenced by the facilitation of low-level perceptual processing by expectations. However, whether expectations can facilitate high-level components of perception remains unclear. We addressed this question by considering the influence of expectations on perceptual metacognition. To isolate the effects of expectation from those of attention we used a novel factorial design: expectation was manipulated by changing the probability that a Gabor target would be presented; attention was manipulated by instructing participants to perform or ignore a concurrent visual search task. We found that, independently of attention, metacognition improved when yes/no responses were congruent with expectations of target presence/absence. Results were modeled under a novel Bayesian signal detection theoretic framework which integrates bottom-up signal propagation with top-down influences, to provide a unified description of the mechanisms underlying perceptual decision and metacognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Important Selection Criteria in Choosing Islamic Banks: A Survey in Bahrain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdullah Hamzah Al-Hadrami

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Selection criteria of banks in general and Islamic banks in particular have been given high attention by the marketing researchers nowadays. But this kind of research is still insufficient in numbers especially in the developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to identify the important selection criteria that are considered by customers in selecting Islamic banks in the Kingdom of Bahrain. A 5-Likert scale survey questionnaire and ANOVA were used as the research method. The results indicate that the religious factors were ranked as the most important selection criteria for selecting Islamic banks. The study also found service quality factors as the second important selection criteria. This study is expected to provide Islamic banks in Bahrain with some inputs in setting up their marketing strategies in order to attract new customers and retain their existing customers. This study is also expected to add value to the literature by providing the updated empirical study in the area. DOI: 10.15408/aiq9i2.4635

Laboratory selection for increased longevity in Drosophila melanogaster reduces field performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wit, Janneke; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard; Sarup, Pernille

2013-01-01

, environmental temperature and longevity selection on performance in the fieldwas tested. Flies fromlongevity selected and control lines of different ages (2, 5, 10 and 15 days) were released in an environment free of natural food sources. Control flies were tested at low, intermediate and high temperatures......Drosophilamelanogaster is frequently used in ageing studies to elucidate whichmechanisms determine the onset and progress of senescence. Lines selected for increased longevity have often been shown to performaswell as or superior to control lines in life history, stress resistance and behavioural......,while longevity selected flieswere tested at the intermediate temperature only. The ability of flies to locate and reach a food sourcewas tested. Flies of intermediate agewere generally better at locating resources than both younger and older flies, where hot and cold environments accelerate the senescent decline...

Impaired Expected Value Computations Coupled With Overreliance on Stimulus-Response Learning in Schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernaus, Dennis; Gold, James M; Waltz, James A; Frank, Michael J

2018-04-03

While many have emphasized impaired reward prediction error signaling in schizophrenia, multiple studies suggest that some decision-making deficits may arise from overreliance on stimulus-response systems together with a compromised ability to represent expected value. Guided by computational frameworks, we formulated and tested two scenarios in which maladaptive representations of expected value should be most evident, thereby delineating conditions that may evoke decision-making impairments in schizophrenia. In a modified reinforcement learning paradigm, 42 medicated people with schizophrenia and 36 healthy volunteers learned to select the most frequently rewarded option in a 75-25 pair: once when presented with a more deterministic (90-10) pair and once when presented with a more probabilistic (60-40) pair. Novel and old combinations of choice options were presented in a subsequent transfer phase. Computational modeling was employed to elucidate contributions from stimulus-response systems (actor-critic) and expected value (Q-learning). People with schizophrenia showed robust performance impairments with increasing value difference between two competing options, which strongly correlated with decreased contributions from expected value-based learning (Q-learning). Moreover, a subtle yet consistent contextual choice bias for the probabilistic 75 option was present in people with schizophrenia, which could be accounted for by a context-dependent reward prediction error in the actor-critic. We provide evidence that decision-making impairments in schizophrenia increase monotonically with demands placed on expected value computations. A contextual choice bias is consistent with overreliance on stimulus-response learning, which may signify a deficit secondary to the maladaptive representation of expected value. These results shed new light on conditions under which decision-making impairments may arise. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by

The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

2017-01-01

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chun, Albert Lee

2011-01-01

expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

Evolution of male and female genitalia following release from sexual selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Cayetano, Luis; Maklakov, Alexei A; Brooks, Robert C; Bonduriansky, Russell

2011-08-01

Despite the key functions of the genitalia in sexual interactions and fertilization, the role of sexual selection and conflict in shaping genital traits remains poorly understood. Seed beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) males possess spines on the intromittent organ, and females possess a thickened reproductive tract wall that also bears spines. We investigated the role of sexual selection and conflict by imposing monogamous mating on eight replicate populations of this naturally polygamous insect, while maintaining eight other populations under polygamy. To establish whether responses to mating system manipulation were robust to ecological context, we simultaneously manipulated life-history selection (early/late reproduction). Over 18-21 generations, male genital spines evolved relatively reduced length in large males (i.e., shallower static allometry) in monogamous populations. Two nonintromittent male genital appendages also evolved in response to the interaction of mating system and ecology. In contrast, no detectable evolution occurred in female genitalia, consistent with the expectation of a delayed response in defensive traits. Our results support a sexually antagonistic role for the male genital spines, and demonstrate the evolution of static allometry in response to variation in sexual selection opportunity. We argue that further advances in the study of genital coevolution will require a much more detailed understanding of the functions of male and female genital traits. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinling Xiao

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingstone, Shona J; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C; Lindsay, Robert S; Wild, Sarah H; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A; Morris, Andrew D; Pearson, Donald W M; Petrie, John R; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A; Traynor, Jamie P; Colhoun, Helen M

2015-01-06

Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on

Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Pan

Full Text Available Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

Compensation strategy to reduce geometry and mechanics mismatches in porous biomaterials built with Selective Laser Melting.

Science.gov (United States)

Bagheri, Zahra S; Melancon, David; Liu, Lu; Johnston, R Burnett; Pasini, Damiano

2017-06-01

The accuracy of Additive Manufacturing processes in fabricating porous biomaterials is currently limited by their capacity to render pore morphology that precisely matches its design. In a porous biomaterial, a geometric mismatch can result in pore occlusion and strut thinning, drawbacks that can inherently compromise bone ingrowth and severely impact mechanical performance. This paper focuses on Selective Laser Melting of porous microarchitecture and proposes a compensation scheme that reduces the morphology mismatch between as-designed and as-manufactured geometry, in particular that of the pore. A spider web analog is introduced, built out of Ti-6Al-4V powder via SLM, and morphologically characterized. Results from error analysis of strut thickness are used to generate thickness compensation relations expressed as a function of the angle each strut formed with the build plane. The scheme is applied to fabricate a set of three-dimensional porous biomaterials, which are morphologically and mechanically characterized via micro Computed Tomography, mechanically tested and numerically analyzed. For strut thickness, the results show the largest mismatch (60% from the design) occurring for horizontal members, reduces to 3.1% upon application of the compensation. Similar improvement is observed also for the mechanical properties, a factor that further corroborates the merit of the design-oriented scheme here introduced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Baskett, Linda Musun

1985-01-01

This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

The signature of positive selection at randomly chosen loci.

Science.gov (United States)

Przeworski, Molly

2002-03-01

In Drosophila and humans, there are accumulating examples of loci with a significant excess of high-frequency-derived alleles or high levels of linkage disequilibrium, relative to a neutral model of a random-mating population of constant size. These are features expected after a recent selective sweep. Their prevalence suggests that positive directional selection may be widespread in both species. However, as I show here, these features do not persist long after the sweep ends: The high-frequency alleles drift to fixation and no longer contribute to polymorphism, while linkage disequilibrium is broken down by recombination. As a result, loci chosen without independent evidence of recent selection are not expected to exhibit either of these features, even if they have been affected by numerous sweeps in their genealogical history. How then can we explain the patterns in the data? One possibility is population structure, with unequal sampling from different subpopulations. Alternatively, positive selection may not operate as is commonly modeled. In particular, the rate of fixation of advantageous mutations may have increased in the recent past.

IMPLIKASI KOMPONEN LAPORAN ARUS KAS, LABA KOTOR, DAN SIZE PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM

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Totok Sasongko

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Expected return of an investment was the probabilit y rate dist ribut ion on invest -ment returns. Although investors (stockholders did not know exact ly what rate of returnthey would get , they had base on their decisions to invest . Work performance measurementused by stockholders in investment decisions were prof it and cash f low. Besides, investorsalso considered company f inancial characterist ic like company size. The main purpose of thisresearch was to analyze the implicat ion of informat ion cash f low statement , gross prof it ,company size toward expected stock return. Populat ion of this research was manufacturecompanies listed at Jakarta Stock Exchange. The sample was selected by purposive sampling.The analysis data used was a mult i linear regression. The result showed that simultaneously,cash f low component , gross prof it and company size had signif icant ef fect to stock expectedreturns. But part ially, the cash f low f rom operat ion and f inancing didn’t have signif icantef fect to stock expected returns.

Benchmarking Variable Selection in QSAR.

Science.gov (United States)

Eklund, Martin; Norinder, Ulf; Boyer, Scott; Carlsson, Lars

2012-02-01

Variable selection is important in QSAR modeling since it can improve model performance and transparency, as well as reduce the computational cost of model fitting and predictions. Which variable selection methods that perform well in QSAR settings is largely unknown. To address this question we, in a total of 1728 benchmarking experiments, rigorously investigated how eight variable selection methods affect the predictive performance and transparency of random forest models fitted to seven QSAR datasets covering different endpoints, descriptors sets, types of response variables, and number of chemical compounds. The results show that univariate variable selection methods are suboptimal and that the number of variables in the benchmarked datasets can be reduced with about 60 % without significant loss in model performance when using multivariate adaptive regression splines MARS and forward selection. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

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Anton Öttl

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

Framing and personalizing informed consent to prevent negative expectations: An experimental pilot study.

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Heisig, Sarah R; Shedden-Mora, Meike C; Hidalgo, Pablo; Nestoriuc, Yvonne

2015-10-01

Informing patients about medical treatments and their possible side effects is ethically and legally obligatory but may trigger negative expectations and nocebo-related side effects. This pilot study aims to investigate the effect of different informed consent procedures on treatment expectations for adjuvant breast cancer treatments (Study 1: endocrine therapy; Study 2: chemotherapy). Using an experimental 2-factorial design, healthy women were informed about endocrine therapy (n = 60) or chemotherapy (n = 64) within a hypothetical scenario. Information was framed with or without treatment benefit information and delivered in a personalized or standardized interaction. Primary outcomes were necessity-concern beliefs about the treatment and side-effect expectations, secondary outcomes were decisional conflicts. In Study 1, side-effect expectations (η²p= .08) and decisional conflicts (η²p = .07) were lower when framed treatment information was given. Providing personalized information resulted in more functional necessity-concern beliefs (η²p = .06) and lower decisional conflicts (η²p = .07). Personalizing and framing of information resulted in more functional necessity-concern beliefs (η²p = .10) and lower decisional conflicts. In Study 2, necessity-concern beliefs were more functional with framing (η²p = .06). Participants in the personalized groups reported lower decisional conflicts (η²p = .06). No differences in side-effect expectations were revealed. This is the first study to provide evidence for optimized treatment expectations through altered informed consent strategies. The results emphasize that framing and personalizing informed consent can positively influence treatment expectations and reduce decisional conflicts. However, generalizations are impaired by the study's pilot character. The potential to prevent nocebo responses in clinical practice should be analyzed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Corrupt practices negatively influenced food security and live expectancy in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Uchendu, Florence Ngozi; Abolarin, Thaddeus Olatunbosun

2015-01-01

Malnutrition is a global public health problem more prevalent in developing countries than in developed countries. Indicators of malnutrition include household food security and life expectancy. Corruption might be one of socio-political problems fuelling malnutrition in developing countries. The aim of this paper is to compare influence of corruption on food security, live expectancy (LE) and population in developed and developing countries. Thirty two least corrupt countries (LCC) and most corrupt countries (MCC) representing developed and developing countries were systematically selected using Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Countries’ data on population, food security index (FSI) and LE scores were obtained from Global food security index (GFSI) and Population reference bureau. T-test, Multivariate (Wilks’ Lambda), Pearson product moment analysis were performed to determine relationship between CPI, FSI, LE, and population in LCC and MCC at pcorrupt practices and promoting good governance should be embraced to eradicate malnutrition in developing countries. PMID:26090058

Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

2017-01-01

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

The 'downside' of women empowerment in India: An experimental inquiry into the role of expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kempen, L.A.C.M. van

2009-01-01

The paper reports on a field experiment conducted among poor women organized in self-help groups in the north-east of India. The experiment tests in a simple game whether overly optimistic expectations with respect to the benefits of exercising agency reduces one's appreciation of remaining with

Reduced Graphene Oxide-Gold Nanoparticle Nanoframework as a Highly Selective Separation Material for Aflatoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wenbo; Wu, Lidong; Fan, Kai; Nie, Dongxia; He, Weijing; Yang, Junhua; Zhao, Zhihui; Han, Zheng

2017-11-03

Graphene-based materials have been studied in many applications, owing to the excellent electrical, mechanical, and thermal properties of graphene. In the current study, an environmentally friendly approach to the preparation of a reduced graphene oxide-gold nanoparticle (rGO-AuNP) nanocomposite was developed by using L-cysteine and vitamin C as reductants under mild reaction conditions. The rGO-AuNP material showed a highly selective separation ability for 6 naturally occurring aflatoxins, which are easily adsorbed onto traditional graphene materials but are difficult to be desorbed. The specificity of the nanocomposite was evaluated in the separation of 6 aflatoxin congeners (aflatoxin B1, aflatoxin B2, aflatoxin G1, aflatoxin G2, aflatoxin M1 and aflatoxin M2) from 23 other biotoxins (including, ochratoxin A, citrinin, and deoxynivalenol). The results indicated that this material was specific for separating aflatoxin congeners. The synthesized material was further validated by determining the recovery (77.6-105.0%), sensitivity (limit of detection in the range of 0.05-0.21 μg kg -1 ), and precision (1.5-11.8%), and was then successfully applied to the separation of aflatoxins from real-world maize, wheat and rice samples.

Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach

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Anthony Medford

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012 of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.

Selective Mutism: Treating the Silent Child

Science.gov (United States)

Shott, Elizabeth F.; Warren, Mary Ellen

2011-01-01

Infant mental health specialists are increasingly expected to treat complex mental health disorders in very young children. Selective mutism is an anxiety disorder which can lead to functional impairment across home, preschool, and community settings. The authors share their experiences with Keylah, a preschooler with significant social anxiety…

Selection on start codons in prokaryotes and potential compensatory nucleotide substitutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Belinky, Frida; Rogozin, Igor B; Koonin, Eugene V

2017-09-29

Reconstruction of the evolution of start codons in 36 groups of closely related bacterial and archaeal genomes reveals purifying selection affecting AUG codons. The AUG starts are replaced by GUG and especially UUG significantly less frequently than expected under the neutral expectation derived from the frequencies of the respective nucleotide triplet substitutions in non-coding regions and in 4-fold degenerate sites. Thus, AUG is the optimal start codon that is actively maintained by purifying selection. However, purifying selection on start codons is significantly weaker than the selection on the same codons in coding sequences, although the switches between the codons result in conservative amino acid substitutions. The only exception is the AUG to UUG switch that is strongly selected against among start codons. Selection on start codons is most pronounced in evolutionarily conserved, highly expressed genes. Mutation of the start codon to a sub-optimal form (GUG or UUG) tends to be compensated by mutations in the Shine-Dalgarno sequence towards a stronger translation initiation signal. Together, all these findings indicate that in prokaryotes, translation start signals are subject to weak but significant selection for maximization of initiation rate and, consequently, protein production.

Automatic temporal expectancy: a high-density event-related potential study.

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Giovanni Mento

Full Text Available How we compute time is not fully understood. Questions include whether an automatic brain mechanism is engaged in temporally regular environmental structure in order to anticipate events, and whether this can be dissociated from task-related processes, including response preparation, selection and execution. To investigate these issues, a passive temporal oddball task requiring neither time-based motor response nor explicit decision was specifically designed and delivered to participants during high-density, event-related potentials recording. Participants were presented with pairs of audiovisual stimuli (S1 and S2 interspersed with an Inter-Stimulus Interval (ISI that was manipulated according to an oddball probabilistic distribution. In the standard condition (70% of trials, the ISI lasted 1,500 ms, while in the two alternative, deviant conditions (15% each, it lasted 2,500 and 3,000 ms. The passive over-exposition to the standard ISI drove participants to automatically and progressively create an implicit temporal expectation of S2 onset, reflected by the time course of the Contingent Negative Variation response, which always peaked in correspondence to the point of S2 maximum expectation and afterwards inverted in polarity towards the baseline. Brain source analysis of S1- and ISI-related ERP activity revealed activation of sensorial cortical areas and the supplementary motor area (SMA, respectively. In particular, since the SMA time course synchronised with standard ISI, we suggest that this area is the major cortical generator of the temporal CNV reflecting an automatic, action-independent mechanism underlying temporal expectancy.

Role Of Expectancy Manipulation In Systematic Desensitization

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, H. Alan

1973-01-01

Expectancy, relaxation, and hierarchy content were manipulated. Findings did not support the hypothesis that expectancy was the only factor in desensitization, but did clarify the role of expectancy vis-a-vis the counterconditioning elements typically discussed in the literature. (Author)

The evolution of reduced antagonism--A role for host-parasite coevolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, A K; Stoy, K S; Gelarden, I A; Penley, M J; Lively, C M; Morran, L T

2015-11-01

Why do some host-parasite interactions become less antagonistic over evolutionary time? Vertical transmission can select for reduced antagonism. Vertical transmission also promotes coevolution between hosts and parasites. Therefore, we hypothesized that coevolution itself may underlie transitions to reduced antagonism. To test the coevolution hypothesis, we selected for reduced antagonism between the host Caenorhabditis elegans and its parasite Serratia marcescens. This parasite is horizontally transmitted, which allowed us to study coevolution independently of vertical transmission. After 20 generations, we observed a response to selection when coevolution was possible: reduced antagonism evolved in the copassaged treatment. Reduced antagonism, however, did not evolve when hosts or parasites were independently selected without coevolution. In addition, we found strong local adaptation for reduced antagonism between replicate host/parasite lines in the copassaged treatment. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that coevolution was critical to the rapid evolution of reduced antagonism. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonnenwald, Diane H.

2003-01-01

In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

Optimizing the allocation of resources for genomic selection in one breeding cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E

2013-11-01

We developed a universally applicable planning tool for optimizing the allocation of resources for one cycle of genomic selection in a biparental population. The framework combines selection theory with constraint numerical optimization and considers genotype  ×  environment interactions. Genomic selection (GS) is increasingly implemented in plant breeding programs to increase selection gain but little is known how to optimally allocate the resources under a given budget. We investigated this problem with model calculations by combining quantitative genetic selection theory with constraint numerical optimization. We assumed one selection cycle where both the training and prediction sets comprised double haploid (DH) lines from the same biparental population. Grain yield for testcrosses of maize DH lines was used as a model trait but all parameters can be adjusted in a freely available software implementation. An extension of the expected selection accuracy given by Daetwyler et al. (2008) was developed to correctly balance between the number of environments for phenotyping the training set and its population size in the presence of genotype × environment interactions. Under small budget, genotyping costs mainly determine whether GS is superior over phenotypic selection. With increasing budget, flexibility in resource allocation increases greatly but selection gain leveled off quickly requiring balancing the number of populations with the budget spent for each population. The use of an index combining phenotypic and GS predicted values in the training set was especially beneficial under limited resources and large genotype × environment interactions. Once a sufficiently high selection accuracy is achieved in the prediction set, further selection gain can be achieved most efficiently by massively expanding its size. Thus, with increasing budget, reducing the costs for producing a DH line becomes increasingly crucial for successfully exploiting the

Accurate expectancies diminish perceptual distraction during visual search

Science.gov (United States)

Sy, Jocelyn L.; Guerin, Scott A.; Stegman, Anna; Giesbrecht, Barry

2014-01-01

The load theory of visual attention proposes that efficient selective perceptual processing of task-relevant information during search is determined automatically by the perceptual demands of the display. If the perceptual demands required to process task-relevant information are not enough to consume all available capacity, then the remaining capacity automatically and exhaustively “spills-over” to task-irrelevant information. The spill-over of perceptual processing capacity increases the likelihood that task-irrelevant information will impair performance. In two visual search experiments, we tested the automaticity of the allocation of perceptual processing resources by measuring the extent to which the processing of task-irrelevant distracting stimuli was modulated by both perceptual load and top-down expectations using behavior, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and electrophysiology. Expectations were generated using a trial-by-trial cue that provided information about the likely load of the upcoming visual search task. When the cues were valid, behavioral interference was eliminated and the influence of load on frontoparietal and visual cortical responses was attenuated relative to when the cues were invalid. In conditions in which task-irrelevant information interfered with performance and modulated visual activity, individual differences in mean blood oxygenation level dependent responses measured from the left intraparietal sulcus were negatively correlated with individual differences in the severity of distraction. These results are consistent with the interpretation that a top-down biasing mechanism interacts with perceptual load to support filtering of task-irrelevant information. PMID:24904374

Accurate expectancies diminish perceptual distraction during visual search

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jocelyn L Sy

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The load theory of visual attention proposes that efficient selective perceptual processing of task-relevant information during search is determined automatically by the perceptual demands of the display. If the perceptual demands required to process task-relevant information are not enough to consume all available capacity, then the remaining capacity automatically and exhaustively spills-over to task-irrelevant information. The spill-over of perceptual processing capacity increases the likelihood that task-irrelevant information will impair performance. In two visual search experiments, we tested the automaticity of the allocation of perceptual processing resources by measuring the extent to which the processing of task-irrelevant distracting stimuli was modulated by both perceptual load and top-down expectations using behavior, fMRI, and electrophysiology. Expectations were generated by a trial-by-trial cue that provided information about the likely load of the upcoming visual search task. When the cues were valid, behavioral interference was eliminated and the influence of load on frontoparietal and visual cortical responses was attenuated relative to when the cues were invalid. In conditions in which task-irrelevant information interfered with performance and modulated visual activity, individual differences in mean BOLD responses measured from the left intraparietal sulcus were negatively correlated with individual differences in the severity of distraction. These results are consistent with the interpretation that a top-down biasing mechanism interacts with perceptual load to support filtering of task-irrelevant information.

Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann, Kira

This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

Imperatives of Bridging the Audit Expectation Gap and Enhancing the Credibility of Corporate Financial Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Otalor

2013-07-01

Full Text Available he study sought to ascertain if reducing the audit expectation gap would led to greater public confidence in corporate financial information. Self-administered questionnaires were used in the study. The data generated from the responses of the subjects were analyzed using descriptive and statistical analysis through the computer (Eview3.1.   The result showed that the higher the audit expectation gap, the higher the negative impact on the credibility of corporate financial reports. Thus, audit expectation gap creates doubt on the reliability of financial statements. Based on the findings and conclusion, it was recommended that the scope of auditors’ responsibilities should be expanded; companies should create a forum for regular interface between management, auditors and financial statement users to enhance confidence in financial reports and strengthening the audit committee and regulatory oversight of auditors to enhance their respective performances.

Mandatory high-risk pooling: an approach to reducing incentives for cream skimming.

Science.gov (United States)

van Barneveld, E M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

1996-01-01

Risk-adjusted capitation payments (RACPs) to competing health insurers are an essential element of market-oriented health care reforms in The Netherlands. Crude RACPs are inadequate, especially because they encourage insurers to select against people expected to be unprofitable--a practice called cream skimming. However, implementing improved RACPs does not appear to be straightforward. This paper analyzes an approach that, given a system of crude RACPs, reduces insurers' incentives for cream skimming in the market for individual health insurance, while preserving incentives for efficiency and cost containment. Under the proposed system of Mandatory High-Risk Pooling (MHRP), each insurer would be allowed to periodically predetermine a small fraction of its members whose costs would be (partially) pooled. The pool would be financed with mandatory, flat-rate contributions. The results suggest that MHRP is a promising supplement to RACPs.

Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

OpenAIRE

Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP

2004-01-01

We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...

Evaluation of outpatient service quality in Eastern Saudi Arabia. Patient's expectations and perceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Al Fraihi, Khalid J; Latif, Shahid A

2016-04-01

To investigate perceptions and expectations of patients regarding hospital outpatient services by using a service quality gap model and factors influencing such gaps. In this cross-sectional descriptive study conducted between October and November 2014 in the outpatient waiting areas of a hospital in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, a sample of 306 patients was selected by convenience sampling technique. The data was collected through an Arabic version of the service quality (SERVQUAL) questionnaire consisting of 2 parts: patients' demographic characteristics, and 22 items scales of patients' expectations and perceptions of SERVQUAL. The data was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis, independent, and paired t samples tests and one way analysis of variance test The results showed that the proposed model for service quality dimensions had a good fit by satisfying the recommended values. The patients' expectations exceeded perceptions in all service quality dimensions indicating statistically significant service quality gaps (t=26.3, p less than 0.000). Findings revealed that the empathy dimension contributed most patients' expectations (4.7 ± 0.5) and perceptions (3.7 ± 0.8) scores, and responsiveness contributed least to expectations (4.5 ± 0.6) and perceptions (3.2 ± 0.8) scores. Prompt services showed highest service quality gap, while observation of privacy showed the smallest service quality gap in the statements. The study showed a significant association between gender, age, education, multiple visits, and service quality dimensions. The proposed model is valid and reliable and significant service quality gaps of all 5 dimensions need to be prioritized and addressed by focused improvement efforts of hospital management.

Strong expectations cancel locality effects: evidence from Hindi.

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Samar Husain

Full Text Available Expectation-driven facilitation (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008 and locality-driven retrieval difficulty (Gibson, 1998, 2000; Lewis & Vasishth, 2005 are widely recognized to be two critical factors in incremental sentence processing; there is accumulating evidence that both can influence processing difficulty. However, it is unclear whether and how expectations and memory interact. We first confirm a key prediction of the expectation account: a Hindi self-paced reading study shows that when an expectation for an upcoming part of speech is dashed, building a rarer structure consumes more processing time than building a less rare structure. This is a strong validation of the expectation-based account. In a second study, we show that when expectation is strong, i.e., when a particular verb is predicted, strong facilitation effects are seen when the appearance of the verb is delayed; however, when expectation is weak, i.e., when only the part of speech "verb" is predicted but a particular verb is not predicted, the facilitation disappears and a tendency towards a locality effect is seen. The interaction seen between expectation strength and distance shows that strong expectations cancel locality effects, and that weak expectations allow locality effects to emerge.

Strong expectations cancel locality effects: evidence from Hindi.

Science.gov (United States)

Husain, Samar; Vasishth, Shravan; Srinivasan, Narayanan

2014-01-01

Expectation-driven facilitation (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008) and locality-driven retrieval difficulty (Gibson, 1998, 2000; Lewis & Vasishth, 2005) are widely recognized to be two critical factors in incremental sentence processing; there is accumulating evidence that both can influence processing difficulty. However, it is unclear whether and how expectations and memory interact. We first confirm a key prediction of the expectation account: a Hindi self-paced reading study shows that when an expectation for an upcoming part of speech is dashed, building a rarer structure consumes more processing time than building a less rare structure. This is a strong validation of the expectation-based account. In a second study, we show that when expectation is strong, i.e., when a particular verb is predicted, strong facilitation effects are seen when the appearance of the verb is delayed; however, when expectation is weak, i.e., when only the part of speech "verb" is predicted but a particular verb is not predicted, the facilitation disappears and a tendency towards a locality effect is seen. The interaction seen between expectation strength and distance shows that strong expectations cancel locality effects, and that weak expectations allow locality effects to emerge.

Rationally reduced libraries for combinatorial pathway optimization minimizing experimental effort.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeschek, Markus; Gerngross, Daniel; Panke, Sven

2016-03-31

Rational flux design in metabolic engineering approaches remains difficult since important pathway information is frequently not available. Therefore empirical methods are applied that randomly change absolute and relative pathway enzyme levels and subsequently screen for variants with improved performance. However, screening is often limited on the analytical side, generating a strong incentive to construct small but smart libraries. Here we introduce RedLibs (Reduced Libraries), an algorithm that allows for the rational design of smart combinatorial libraries for pathway optimization thereby minimizing the use of experimental resources. We demonstrate the utility of RedLibs for the design of ribosome-binding site libraries by in silico and in vivo screening with fluorescent proteins and perform a simple two-step optimization of the product selectivity in the branched multistep pathway for violacein biosynthesis, indicating a general applicability for the algorithm and the proposed heuristics. We expect that RedLibs will substantially simplify the refactoring of synthetic metabolic pathways.

Digit-Recurrence Dividers with Reduced Logical Depth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antelo, Elisardo; Lang, Tomas; Montuschi, Paolo

2005-01-01

In this paper, we propose a class of division algorithms with the aim of reducing the delay of the selection of the quotient digit by introducing more concurrency and flexibility in its computation. From the proposed class of algorithms, we select one that moves part of the selection function out...

Evaluation of intradural stimulation efficiency and selectivity in a computational model of spinal cord stimulation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan Howell

Full Text Available Spinal cord stimulation (SCS is an alternative or adjunct therapy to treat chronic pain, a prevalent and clinically challenging condition. Although SCS has substantial clinical success, the therapy is still prone to failures, including lead breakage, lead migration, and poor pain relief. The goal of this study was to develop a computational model of SCS and use the model to compare activation of neural elements during intradural and extradural electrode placement. We constructed five patient-specific models of SCS. Stimulation thresholds predicted by the model were compared to stimulation thresholds measured intraoperatively, and we used these models to quantify the efficiency and selectivity of intradural and extradural SCS. Intradural placement dramatically increased stimulation efficiency and reduced the power required to stimulate the dorsal columns by more than 90%. Intradural placement also increased selectivity, allowing activation of a greater proportion of dorsal column fibers before spread of activation to dorsal root fibers, as well as more selective activation of individual dermatomes at different lateral deviations from the midline. Further, the results suggest that current electrode designs used for extradural SCS are not optimal for intradural SCS, and a novel azimuthal tripolar design increased stimulation selectivity, even beyond that achieved with an intradural paddle array. Increased stimulation efficiency is expected to increase the battery life of implantable pulse generators, increase the recharge interval of rechargeable implantable pulse generators, and potentially reduce stimulator volume. The greater selectivity of intradural stimulation may improve the success rate of SCS by mitigating the sensitivity of pain relief to malpositioning of the electrode. The outcome of this effort is a better quantitative understanding of how intradural electrode placement can potentially increase the selectivity and efficiency of SCS

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer

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Boris Alengordovich Korobitsyn

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer

Not by strength alone : children's conflict expectations follow the logic of the asymmetric war of attrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Pietraszewski, David; Shaw, Alex

2015-03-01

The Asymmetric War of Attrition (AWA) model of animal conflict in evolutionary biology (Maynard Smith and Parker in Nature, 246, 15-18, 1976) suggests that an organism's decision to withdraw from a conflict is the result of adaptations designed to integrate the expected value of winning, discounted by the expected costs that would be incurred by continuing to compete, via sensitivity to proximate cues of how quickly each side can impose costs on the other (Resource Holding Potential), and how much each side will gain by winning. The current studies examine whether human conflict expectations follow the formalized logic of this model. Children aged 6-8 years were presented with third-party conflict vignettes and were then asked to predict the likely winner. Cues of ownership, hunger, size, strength, and alliance strength were systematically varied across conditions. Results demonstrate that children's expectations followed the logic of the AWA model, even in complex situations featuring multiple, competing cues, such that the actual relative costs and benefits that would accrue during such a conflict were reflected in children's expectations. Control conditions show that these modifications to conflict expectations could not have resulted from more general experimental artifacts or demand characteristics. To test the selectivity of these effects to conflict, expectations of search effort were also assessed. As predicted, they yielded a different pattern of results. These studies represent one of the first experimental tests of the AWA model in humans and suggest that future research on the psychology of ownership, conflict, and value may be aided by formalized models from evolutionary biology.

Effect of a change in selection year on success in male soccer players.

Science.gov (United States)

Helsen, Werner F.; Starkes, Janet L.; Van Winckel, Jan

2000-11-01

Since 1997 and following the guidelines of the International Football Association, the Belgian Soccer Federation has used January 1st as the start of the selection year. Previously, August 1 was the start. This shift prompted an investigation of changes in birth-date distributions throughout youth categories for 1996-1997 compared to the 1997-1998 competitive years. Birth dates were considered for national youth league players, ages 10-12, 12-14, 14-16, and 16-18 years. Kolmogorov Smirnov tests assessed differences between observed and expected birth-date distributions. Regression analyses examined the relationship between month of birth and number of participants both before and after the August to January shift. Results indicated that from 1996 to 1997, youth players born from January to March (the early part of the new selection year) were more likely to be identified as "talented" and to be exposed to higher levels of coaching. In comparison, players born late in the new selection year (August to October) were assessed as "talented" in significantly lower proportions. Specific suggestions are presented to reduce the relative age effect. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 12:729-735, 2000. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Exploring New York State Policy Expectations Pertaining to Energy Efficiency and Green Collar Workforce

Science.gov (United States)

Pauli, Felix Asher

2012-01-01

The Green Jobs Green New York (GJGNY) Act of 2009 was designed to reduce energy consumption by creating green collar workforce and providing energy efficiency audits to the public. The problem addressed in this study is the discrepancy between the expectations of Green Jobs Green New York Act of 2009 and the implementation of this policy. This…

SODA: The reduced database for the TdeV tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cote, A.; Michaud, D.; Caumartin, J.; de Villers, P.; Gauthier, Y.; Gauvreau, J.; Larsen, J.

1997-01-01

SODA which stands for Systgrave eme d close-quote Organisation des Donnacute ees et d close-quote Analyse, is a general database for TdeV. SODA has the following goals: to produce a database of a reduced set of physical data; to ensure that these data are validated; to record all the parameters relevant to tokamak operation and experiments; to facilitate the retrieval of data using given selection criteria; and to improve data accessibility and analysis. The relational database ORACLE trademark has been chosen to provide flexibility and to accommodate the increasing expectations of the TdeV researchers. In-house expertise allows custom-made tables and centralized data management. In the process of creating SODA several new interfaces for the scientific coordinator, machine operator, and diagnosticians have been added to provide a better definition of the experiment for the archiving system. The database includes the more relevant machine and diagnostic parameters, plasma perturbations (rf, biasing, gas hor-ellipsis), mean and standard deviation of physical signals, plasma profiles, and code results (equilibrium hor-ellipsis) for selected time windows in a discharge. Users of the X-window interface of SODA are not required to know the database structure or the SQL language. SODA has been operating successfully for over a year and its capabilities are continuously expanding. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

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Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

Towards a Characterization of Rational Expectations

OpenAIRE

Itai Arieli

2008-01-01

R. J. Aumann and J. H. Drèze (2008) define a rational expectation of a player i in a game G as the expected payo of some type of i in some belief system for G in which common knowledge of rationality and common priors obtain. Our goal is to characterize the set of rational expectations in terms of the game's payoff matrix. We provide such a characterization for a specific class of strategic games, called semi-elementary, which includes Myerson's "elementary" games.

Selective ethanol production from reducing sugars in a saccharide mixture.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohara, Satoshi; Kato, Taku; Fukushima, Yasuhiro; Sakoda, Akiyoshi

2013-05-01

Fermentation profiles of four different yeasts reportedly defective in sucrose utilization indicate that all strains tested removed particular sugar via selective conversion to ethanol in a saccharide mixture. At the temperature of pressed sugarcane juice, Saccharomyces dairenensis and Saccharomyces transvaalensis performed better in ethanol production rate and yield, respectively. Copyright © 2012 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection and challenges for LFR reactor materials