WorldWideScience

Sample records for seismic vulnerability assessment

  1. Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

    Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

  2. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Frame buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatiha Cherifi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.

  3. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  4. A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

    2008-01-01

    Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the places of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system

  5. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  6. Seismic vulnerability assessment of chemical plants through probabilistic neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, T.; Ceravolo, R.; De Stefano, A.; Genovese, C.; Sabia, D.

    2002-01-01

    A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks

  7. Seismic vulnerability assessment of an Italian historical masonry dry dock

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Zucca; Pietro Giuseppe Crespi; Nicola Longarini

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the seismic vulnerability analysis of the military dry dock built in 1861 inside the Messina’s harbor. The study appears very important not only for the relevance of the dry dock itself, but also for its social, military and symbolic role. As a first step, the historical documentation about the dry dock delivered by the Military Technical Office, in charge of its maintenance, was thoroughly examined. This activity was fundamental to understand the construction methods, the ...

  8. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  9. Review on Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Bulk of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.

    2013-09-01

    This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.

  10. Survey Methods for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballarin, M.; Balletti, C.; Faccio, P.; Guerra, F.; Saetta, A.; Vernier, P.

    2017-05-01

    On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml) and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml) in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy "Camera degli Sposi". This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited "Camera degli Sposi" realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  11. SURVEY METHODS FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL MASONRY BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ballarin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  12. Performance-based seismic assessment of vulnerability of dam using time history analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elmrabet Oumnia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The current performance-based seismic assessment procedure can be computationally intensive as it requires many time history analyses (THA each requiring time intensive post-processing of results. Time history analysis is a part of structural analysis and is the calculation of the response of a structure to any earthquake. It is one of the main processes of structural design in regions where earthquakes are prevalent. The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic performance of embankment dam located on the Oued RHISS in the Province of AL HOCEIMA using the THA method. To monitor structural behavior, the seismic vulnerability of structure is evaluated under real earthquake records with considering the soil-structure-fluide interaction. In this study, a simple assistant program is developed for implementing earthquake analyses of structure with ANSYS, ground acceleration–time history data are used for seismic analysis and dynamic numerical simulations were conducted to study and identify the total response of the soil-structure system.

  13. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Shallow Two-Story Underground RC Box Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungwon Huh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Tunnels, culverts, and subway stations are the main parts of an integrated infrastructure system. Most of them are constructed by the cut-and-cover method at shallow depths (mainly lower than 30 m of soil deposits, where large-scale seismic ground deformation can occur with lower stiffness and strength of the soil. Therefore, the transverse racking deformation (one of the major seismic ground deformation due to soil shear deformations should be included in the seismic design of underground structures using cost- and time-efficient methods that can achieve robustness of design and are easily understood by engineers. This paper aims to develop a simplified but comprehensive approach relating to vulnerability assessment in the form of fragility curves on a shallow two-story reinforced concrete underground box structure constructed in a highly-weathered soil. In addition, a comparison of the results of earthquakes per peak ground acceleration (PGA is conducted to determine the effective and appropriate number for cost- and time-benefit analysis. The ground response acceleration method for buried structures (GRAMBS is used to analyze the behavior of the structure subjected to transverse seismic loading under quasi-static conditions. Furthermore, the damage states that indicate the exceedance level of the structural strength capacity are described by the results of nonlinear static analyses (or so-called pushover analyses. The Latin hypercube sampling technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with the material properties and concrete cover owing to the variation in construction conditions. Finally, a large number of artificial ground shakings satisfying the design spectrum are generated in order to develop the seismic fragility curves based on the defined damage states. It is worth noting that the number of ground motions per PGA, which is equal to or larger than 20, is a reasonable value to perform a structural analysis that

  14. Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

  15. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Steel and RC Moment Buildings Using HAZUS and Statistical Methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Mansouri

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Designer engineers have always the serious challenge regarding the choice of the kind of structures to use in the areas with significant seismic activities. Development of fragility curve provides an opportunity for designers to select a structure that will have the least fragility. This paper presents an investigation into the seismic vulnerability of both steel and reinforced concrete (RC moment frames using fragility curves obtained by HAZUS and statistical methodologies. Fragility curves are employed for several probability parameters. Fragility curves are used to assess several probability parameters. Furthermore, it examines whether the probability of the exceedence of the damage limit state is reduced as expected. Nonlinear dynamic analyses of five-, eight-, and twelve-story frames are carried out using Perform 3D. The definition of damage states is based on the descriptions provided by HAZUS, which gives the limit states and the associated interstory drift limits for structures. The fragility curves show that the HAZUS procedure reduces probability of damage, and this reduction is higher for RC frames. Generally, the RC frames have higher fragility compared to steel frames.

  16. Effect of Material Variability and Mechanical Eccentricity on the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Lucio Puppio

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the influence of material variability on the seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings. Existing r.c. buildings are affected by a strong dispersion of material strengths of both the base materials. This influences the seismic response in linear and nonlinear static analysis. For this reason, it is useful to define a geometrical parameter called “material eccentricity”. As a reference model, an analysis of a two storey building is presented with a symmetrical plan but asymmetrical material distribution. Furthermore, an analysis of two real buildings with a similar issue is performed. Experimental data generate random material distributions to carry out a probabilistic analysis. By rotating the vector that defines the position of the center of strength it is possible to describe a strength domain that is characterized by equipotential lines in terms of the Risk Index. Material eccentricity is related to the Ultimate Shear of non-linear static analyses. This relevant uncertainty, referred to as the variation of the center of strength, is not considered in the current European and Italian Standards. The “material eccentricity” therefore reveals itself to be a relevant parameter to considering how material variability affects such a variation.

  17. A NOVEL APPROACH TO SUPPORT MAJORITY VOTING IN SPATIAL GROUP MCDM USING DENSITY INDUCED OWA OPERATOR FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moradi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other’s opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts’ opinions.

  18. a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

    2014-10-01

    Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

  19. Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanzano, Giovanni; Salzano, Ernesto; Santucci de Magistris, Filippo; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech). -- Highlights: • The seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines is analyzed. • A collection of data for pipelines damaged by earthquake is given. • Damage states and risk states for pipelines are defined. • Consequence-based fragility formulations for the loss of containment are given • Seismic threshold values for public authority, risk assessment and gas distribution are shown

  20. A GIS-based multi-criteria seismic vulnerability assessment using the integration of granular computing rule extraction and artificial neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheikhian, Hossein; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Stein, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes multi‐criteria group decision‐making to address seismic physical vulnerability assessment. Granular computing rule extraction is combined with a feed forward artificial neural network to form a classifier capable of training a neural network on the basis of the rules provided by

  1. An Intelligent Network Proposed for Assessing Seismic Vulnerability Index of Sewerage Networks within a GIS Framework (A Case Study of Shahr-e-Kord

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamadali Rahgozar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to their vast spread, sewerage networks are exposed to considerable damages during severe earthquakes, which may lead to catastrophic environmental contamination. Multiple repairs in the pipelines, including pipe and joint fractures, could be costly and time-consuming. In seismic risk management, it is of utmost importance to have an intelligent tool for assessing seismic vulnerability index at any given point in time for such important utilities as sewerage networks. This study uses a weight-factor methodology and proposes an online GIS-based intelligent algorithm to evaluate the seismic vulnerability index (VI for metropolitan sewerage networks. The proposed intelligent tool is capable of updating VI as the sewerage network conditions may change with time and at different locations. The city of Shahr-e-Kord located on the high risk seismic belt is selected for a case study to which the proposed methodology is applied for zoning the vulnerability index in GIS. Results show that the overall seismic vulnerability index for the selected study area ranges from low to medium but that it increases in the southern parts of the city, especially in the old town where brittle pipes have been laid

  2. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  3. Relative seismic shaking vulnerability microzonation using an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the relative seismic shaking vulnerability for built structures of different height categories within adjacent ..... monitor for possible changes in the microzonation results over time ..... The vehicle's ... A Garmin GPS 12XL was used to determine the.

  4. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Montreal -An Application of HAZUS-MH4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Keyan

    2011-12-01

    Seismic loss estimation for Montreal, Canada is performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic hazard using the HAZUS-MH4 tool developed by US Federal Emergency Management. The software is manipulated to accept a Canadian setting for the Montreal study region, which includes 522 census tracts. The accuracy of loss estimations using HAZUS is dependent on the quality and quantity of data collection and preparation. The data collected for Montreal study region comprise: (1) the building inventory (2) hazard maps regarding soil amplification, liquefaction, and landslides (3) population distribution at three different times of the day (4) census demographic information and (5) synthetic ground motion contour maps using three different ground motion prediction equations. All these data are prepared and assembled into geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS software. The study estimated that roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for a scenario corresponding to the 2% in 50 years scenario. The maximum number of casualties associated with this scenario corresponds to a time of occurrence of 2pm and would result in approximately 500 people being injured. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggests that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. The next steps in the study should be to increase the size of the survey area to the Greater Montreal which includes more than 3 million inhabitants and to perform more targeted studies for critical areas such as downtown Montreal, and the south-eastern tip of Montreal. The current study was performed mainly for the built environment; the next phase will need to

  5. Urban Vulnerability Assessment to Seismic Hazard through Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis. Case Study: the Bucharest Municipality/Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, Iuliana; Dumitrascu, Silvia; Bostenaru, Maria

    2010-05-01

    In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, an alarming challenge in the third millennium is the rapid growth of urban population in vulnerable areas. Cities are, by definition, very fragile socio-ecological systems with a high level of vulnerability when it comes to environmental changes and that are responsible for important transformations of the space, determining dysfunctions shown in the state of the natural variables (Parker and Mitchell, 1995, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database). A contributing factor is the demographic dynamic that affects urban areas. The aim of this study is to estimate the overall vulnerability of the urban area of Bucharest in the context of the seismic hazard, by using environmental, socio-economic, and physical measurable variables in the framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. For this approach the capital city of Romania was chosen based on its high vulnerability due to the explosive urban development and the advanced state of degradation of the buildings (most of the building stock being built between 1940 and 1977). Combining these attributes with the seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea source, Bucharest was ranked as the 10th capital city worldwide in the terms of seismic risk. Over 40 years of experience in the natural risk field shows that the only directly accessible way to reduce the natural risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the space (Adger et al., 2001, Turner et al., 2003; UN/ISDR, 2004, Dayton-Johnson, 2004, Kasperson et al., 2005; Birkmann, 2006 etc.). In effect, reducing the vulnerability of urban spaces would imply lower costs produced by natural disasters. By applying the SMCA method, the result reveals a circular pattern, signaling as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a river terrace and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic

  6. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  7. The Combined Use of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques within a GIS Environment for the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Areas: An Operational Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Costanzo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of the topographic features, the building properties, and the road infrastructure settings are relevant operational tasks for managing post-crisis events, restoration activities, and for supporting search and rescue operations. Within such a framework, airborne remote sensing tools have demonstrated to be powerful instruments, whose joint use can provide meaningful analyses to support the risk assessment of urban environments. Based on this rationale, in this study, the operational benefits obtained by combining airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral measurements are shown. Terrain and surface digital models are gathered by using LiDAR data. Information about roads and roof materials are provided through the supervised classification of hyperspectral images. The objective is to combine such products within a geographic information system (GIS providing value-added maps to be used for the seismic vulnerability assessment of urban environments. Experimental results are gathered for the city of Cosenza, Italy.

  8. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Site-Vicinity Infrastructure for Supporting the Accident Management of a Nuclear Power Plant

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    T. J. Katona

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants shall be designed to resist the effects of large earthquakes. The design basis earthquake affects large area around the plant site and can cause serious consequences that will affect the logistical support of the emergency actions at the plant, influence the psychological condition of the plant personnel, and determine the workload of the country’s disaster management personnel. In this paper the main qualitative findings of a study are presented that have been performed for the case of a hypothetical 10−4/a probability design basis earthquake for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary. The study covers the qualitative assessment of the postearthquake conditions at the settlements around the plant site including quantitative evaluation of the condition of dwellings. The main goal of the recent phase of the study was to identify public utility vulnerabilities that define the outside support conditions of the nuclear power plant accident management. The results of the study can be used for the planning of logistical support of the plant accident management staff. The study also contributes to better understanding of the working conditions of the disaster management services in the region around the nuclear power plant.

  9. Seismic vulnerability study Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, M.; Goen, L.K.

    1995-01-01

    The Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF), located at TA-53 of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), features an 800 MeV proton accelerator used for nuclear physics and materials science research. As part of the implementation of DOE Order 5480.25 and in preparation for DOE Order 5480.28, a seismic vulnerability study of the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) supporting the beam line from the accelerator building through to the ends of die various beam stops at LAMPF has been performed. The study was accomplished using the SQUG GIP methodology to assess the capability of the various SSCs to resist an evaluation basis earthquake. The evaluation basis earthquake was selected from site specific seismic hazard studies. The goals for the study were as follows: (1) identify SSCs which are vulnerable to seismic loads; and (2) ensure that those SSCs screened during die evaluation met the performance goals required for DOE Order 5480.28. The first goal was obtained by applying the SQUG GIP methodology to those SSCS represented in the experience data base. For those SSCs not represented in the data base, information was gathered and a significant amount of engineering judgment applied to determine whether to screen the SSC or to classify it as an outlier. To assure the performance goals required by DOE Order 5480.28 are met, modifications to the SQUG GIP methodology proposed by Salmon and Kennedy were used. The results of this study ire presented in this paper

  10. Testing cost-effective methodologies for flood and seismic vulnerability assessment in communities of developing countries (Dajç, northern Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica Pazzi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays many developing countries need effective measures to reduce the disaster related risks. Structural interventions are the most effective to achieve these aims. Nevertheless, in the absence of adequate financial resources different low-cost strategies can be used to minimize losses. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the disaster risk reduction can be gathered building a community coping capacity. In the case study, flood and seismic analyses have been carried out using relatively simple and low-cost technologies, fundamental for governments and research institutions of poorly developed countries. In fact, through the acquisition and dissemination of these basic information, a reduction of vulnerability and risk can be achieved. In detail, two methodologies for the evaluation of hydraulic and seismic vulnerability were tested in the Dajç municipality (Northern Albania, a high-seismicity region that is also severely affected by floods. Updated bathymetric, topographic and hydraulic data were processed with HEC-RAS software to identify sites potentially affected by dykes overflowing. Besides, the soil-structure interaction effects for three strategic buildings were studied using microtremors and the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio method. This flood and seismic vulnerability analysis was then evaluated in terms of costs and ease of accessibility in order to suggest the best use both of the employed devices and the obtained information for designing good civil protection plans and to inform the population about the right behaviour in case of threat.

  11. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Himalayan region has undergone significant development and to ensure safe and secure progress in such a seismically vulnerable region there is a need for hazard assessment. For seismic hazard assessment, it is important to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the seismicity data collected from ...

  12. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GUSTAVSON, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection

  13. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  14. Comparative Application of Capacity Models for Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of Existing RC Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faella, C.; Lima, C.; Martinelli, E.; Nigro, E.

    2008-01-01

    Seismic vulnerability assessment of existing buildings is one of the most common tasks in which Structural Engineers are currently engaged. Since, its is often a preliminary step to approach the issue of how to retrofit non-seismic designed and detailed structures, it plays a key role in the successful choice of the most suitable strengthening technique. In this framework, the basic information for both seismic assessment and retrofitting is related to the formulation of capacity models for structural members. Plenty of proposals, often contradictory under the quantitative standpoint, are currently available within the technical and scientific literature for defining the structural capacity in terms of force and displacements, possibly with reference to different parameters representing the seismic response. The present paper shortly reviews some of the models for capacity of RC members and compare them with reference to two case studies assumed as representative of a wide class of existing buildings

  15. Southern African Coastal vulnerability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rautenbach, C

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...

  16. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  17. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  18. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  19. Effect of β on Seismic Vulnerability Curve for RC Bridge Based on Double Damage Criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Qinghai; Yuan Wancheng

    2010-01-01

    In the analysis of seismic vulnerability curve based on double damage criterion, the randomness of structural parameter and randomness of seismic should be considered. Firstly, the distribution characteristics of structure capability and seismic demand are obtained based on IDA and PUSHOVER, secondly, the vulnerability of the bridge is gained based on ANN and MC and a vulnerability curve according to this bridge and seismic is drawn. Finally, the analysis for a continuous bridge is displayed as an example, and parametric analysis for the effect of β is done, which reflects the bridge vulnerability overall from the point of total probability, and in order to reduce the discreteness, large value of β are suggested.

  20. Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of confined brick walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghalehnovi, M.; Rahdar, H. A.

    2008-01-01

    There has been an increase on the interest of Engineers and designers to use designing methods based on displacement and behavior (designing based on performance) Regarding to the importance of resisting structure design against dynamic loads such as earthquake, and inability to design according to prediction of nonlinear behavior element caused by nonlinear properties of constructional material.Economically speaking, easy carrying out and accessibility of masonry material have caused an enormous increase in masonry structures in villages, towns and cities. On the other hand, there is a necessity to study behavior and Seismic Vulnerability in these kinds of structures since Iran is located on the earthquake belt of Alpide.Different reasons such as environmental, economic, social, cultural and accessible constructional material have caused different kinds of constructional structures.In this study, some tied walls have been modeled with software and with relevant accelerator suitable with geology conditions under dynamic analysis to research on the Seismic Vulnerability and performance level of confined brick walls. Results from this analysis seem to be satisfactory after comparison of them with the values in Code ATC40, FEMA and standard 2800 of Iran

  1. Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of confined brick walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghalehnovi, M.; Rahdar, H. A.

    2008-07-01

    There has been an increase on the interest of Engineers and designers to use designing methods based on displacement and behavior (designing based on performance) Regarding to the importance of resisting structure design against dynamic loads such as earthquake, and inability to design according to prediction of nonlinear behavior element caused by nonlinear properties of constructional material. Economically speaking, easy carrying out and accessibility of masonry material have caused an enormous increase in masonry structures in villages, towns and cities. On the other hand, there is a necessity to study behavior and Seismic Vulnerability in these kinds of structures since Iran is located on the earthquake belt of Alpide. Different reasons such as environmental, economic, social, cultural and accessible constructional material have caused different kinds of constructional structures. In this study, some tied walls have been modeled with software and with relevant accelerator suitable with geology conditions under dynamic analysis to research on the Seismic Vulnerability and performance level of confined brick walls. Results from this analysis seem to be satisfactory after comparison of them with the values in Code ATC40, FEMA and standard 2800 of Iran.

  2. The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winblad, A.E.

    1987-01-01

    The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

  3. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  4. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  5. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  6. Single Point Vulnerability Analysis of Automatic Seismic Trip System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Seo Bin; Chung, Soon Il; Lee, Yong Suk [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Byung Pil [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Single Point Vulnerability (SPV) analysis is a process used to identify individual equipment whose failure alone will result in a reactor trip, turbine generator failure, or power reduction of more than 50%. Automatic Seismic Trip System (ASTS) is a newly installed system to ensure the safety of plant when earthquake occurs. Since this system directly shuts down the reactor, the failure or malfunction of its system component can cause a reactor trip more frequently than other systems. Therefore, an SPV analysis of ASTS is necessary to maintain its essential performance. To analyze SPV for ASTS, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) was performed. In this study, FMEA and FTA methods were performed to select SPV equipment of ASTS. D/O, D/I, A/I card, seismic sensor, and trip relay had an effect on the reactor trip but their single failure will not cause reactor trip. In conclusion, ASTS is excluded as SPV. These results can be utilized as the basis data for ways to enhance facility reliability such as design modification and improvement of preventive maintenance procedure.

  7. Single Point Vulnerability Analysis of Automatic Seismic Trip System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Seo Bin; Chung, Soon Il; Lee, Yong Suk; Choi, Byung Pil

    2016-01-01

    Single Point Vulnerability (SPV) analysis is a process used to identify individual equipment whose failure alone will result in a reactor trip, turbine generator failure, or power reduction of more than 50%. Automatic Seismic Trip System (ASTS) is a newly installed system to ensure the safety of plant when earthquake occurs. Since this system directly shuts down the reactor, the failure or malfunction of its system component can cause a reactor trip more frequently than other systems. Therefore, an SPV analysis of ASTS is necessary to maintain its essential performance. To analyze SPV for ASTS, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) was performed. In this study, FMEA and FTA methods were performed to select SPV equipment of ASTS. D/O, D/I, A/I card, seismic sensor, and trip relay had an effect on the reactor trip but their single failure will not cause reactor trip. In conclusion, ASTS is excluded as SPV. These results can be utilized as the basis data for ways to enhance facility reliability such as design modification and improvement of preventive maintenance procedure

  8. Vulnerability and floor spectra of seismically isolated structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, K.H.

    2010-09-01

    This thesis was motivated by issues that arise regarding the use of the method of seismic isolation in the nuclear industry. Despite the research conducted during the last decades in the field of seismic isolation, many questions about the behavior of isolated structures remain. These questions concern, on the one hand, the vulnerability of these structures, due to an excursion (unexpected) in the post-linear domain, and on the other hand, phenomena that can lead to a significant excitation of none isolated modes. Furthermore, unlike previous work studying the seismic behavior of buildings, an important part of this thesis is devoted to the behavior of equipment through the study of floor spectra. Firstly, the probability of failure, in the case of nonlinear response of the superstructure, was studied with simple models, for different laws of nonlinear behavior and different types of support. Then, the effects of heavy damping were investigated and the mechanism of amplification of the response of non-isolated modes has been explained. To resolve the amplification problem of none isolated modes, the mixed isolated systems, combining passive isolation with semi-active devices, have been considered. The numerical analyses confirm the effectiveness of this approach. Finally, a series of shaking table tests on a simple model with two degrees of freedom was conducted. The model is equipped with a magneto-rheological damper which is controlled as a semi-active device. The comparison of the experimental results with those of numerical simulations shows that the models developed are able to represent satisfactorily the essential physical phenomena. (author)

  9. The influence of local mechanisms on large scale seismic vulnerability estimation of masonry building aggregates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Milo, Bartolomeo; Fabbrocino, Francesco

    2016-12-01

    The current paper deals with the seismic vulnerability evaluation of masonry constructions grouped in aggregates through an "ad hoc" quick vulnerability form based on new assessment parameters considering local collapse mechanisms. First, a parametric kinematic analysis on masonry walls with different height (h) / thickness (t) ratios has been developed with the purpose of identifying the collapse load multiplier for activation of the main four first-order failure mechanisms. Subsequently, a form initially conceived for building aggregates suffering second-mode collapse mechanisms, has been expanded on the basis of the achieved results. Tre proposed quick vulnerability technique has been applied to one case study within the territory of Arsita (Teramo, Italy) and, finally, it has been also validated by the comparison of results with those deriving from application of the well-known FaMIVE procedure.

  10. Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
    This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

  11. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  12. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  13. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  14. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  15. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  16. Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

    1998-10-27

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  17. Urban heritage value and seismic vulnerability mapping: challenges for engineering and architectural assessments. Case study of a protected area in Bucharest, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil-Sever GEORGESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluates the urban heritage situation at almost four decades after the Bucharest, March 4, 1977 earthquake disaster, followed by a razing of the present Civic Center area and a large-scale remodeling project. The first results of the URBASRISK Project (2012 are presented as a contribution to a new multi-hazard paradigm to cope with European urban scale threats, especially in heritage areas, with a case study of a historic zone now designated as protected area. The cultural and utility value was identified and graded on specific scales for further analysis and mapping. For this phase of study some data of 1977 were adjusted to express the vulnerability by the Mean Damage Degree, GA, with a possibility to make corrections after visual inspection. The URBASRISKdb geodatabase was created for storing the attributes of the buildings. The basic source, i.e. the ESRI World Street Map layer, was verified against satellite, aerial and street views freely available online from various providers. The final version of the map was obtained by also considering information obtained by field visits.

  18. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    .... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...

  19. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING OPERATOR IN EARTHQUAKE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moradi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to find the extent to which the minimal variability Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA model of seismic vulnerability assessment is sensitive to variation of optimism degree. There are a variety of models proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment. In order to examine the efficiency of seismic vulnerability assessment models, the stability of results could be analysed. Seismic vulnerability assessment is done to estimate the probable losses in the future earthquake. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods have been applied by a number of researchers to estimate the human, physical and financial losses in urban areas. The study area of this research is Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA which has more than eight million inhabitants. In addition, this paper assumes that North Tehran Fault (NTF is activated and caused an earthquake in TMA. 1996 census data is used to extract the attribute values for six effective criteria in seismic vulnerability assessment. The results demonstrate that minimal variability OWA model of Seismic Loss Estimation (SLE is more stable where the aggregated seismic vulnerability degree has a lower value. Moreover, minimal variability OWA is very sensitive to optimism degree in northern areas of Tehran. A number of statistical units in southern areas of the city also indicate considerable sensitivity to optimism degree due to numerous non-standard buildings. In addition, the change of seismic vulnerability degree caused by variation of optimism degree does not exceed 25 % of the original value which means that the overall accuracy of the model is acceptable.

  20. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...

  1. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiqur Rahman ,; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim

    2016-01-01

    Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...

  2. A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

    2017-08-01

    The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

  3. GPR surveys for the characterization of foundation plinths within a seismic vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Domenico, Domenica; Teramo, Antonio; Campo, Davide

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of GPR surveys performed to identify the foundation plinths of 12 buildings of a school, whose presence is uncertain since the structural drawings were not available. Their effective characterization is an essential element within a study aimed at assessing the seismic vulnerability of the buildings, which are non-seismically designed structures, located in an area classified as a seismic zone after their construction. Through GPR profiles acquired by two 250 MHz antennas, both in reflection mode and in a WARR configuration, the actual geometry and depth of the building plinths were successfully identified, limiting the number of invasive tests necessary to validate the GPR data interpretation, thus enabling the choice of the most suitable sites that would not alter the serviceability of the structure. The collected data were also critically analysed with reference to local environmental noise that, if causing reflections superimposed on those of the subsoil, could undermine the success of the investigation. Due to the homogeneity of the ground, the processing and results relative to each pair of profiles carried out for all of these buildings is very similar, so the results concerning only two of them are reported. (paper)

  4. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallner, A.; Lorenz, P.

    2012-01-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  5. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallner, A. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria); Lorenz, P. [ed.; Becker, O. [eds.; Weber, U. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-07-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  6. Microtremor survey to investigate seismic vulnerability around the Seulimum Fault, Aceh Besar-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanjuntak, Andrean V. H.; Muksin, Umar; Rahmayani, Febrina

    2018-05-01

    The Seulimeum Fault has generated inland earthquake with magnitude larger than M 6.5 that destroyed houses in the Lamteuba and Krueng Raya Villages. Earthquakes along the Seulimeum Fault are mostly right lateral strike-slip characterizing the Fault. The understanding of the seismic vulnerability around the highly populated Banda Aceh City and the villages in Aceh Besar is therefore very important since the city, and the villages are very close to the Seulimeum Fault. A microtremor survey has been conducted to investigate seismic vulnerability in the area closed to the Seulimeum Fault. The waveforms of the microtremor have been recorded in Lamteuba and Kreung Raya villages, Aceh Besar at 20 sites for 7 days from August 14, 2017 with the interval of measurement of 1 km. The waveforms recorded for 30 minutes at each site by using one Taurus Seismometer in miniseed format. The data has been analyzing by using Geopsy to obtain the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio for each site. The seismic vulnerability is considered to be high if the value of the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio is high. The HVSR values are then interpolated to obtain the seismic vulnerability map. The preliminary result shows high seismic vulnerability in the area around the first site.

  7. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

  8. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  9. Urban Vulnerability Assessment Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rezaei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.

  10. Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

  11. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  12. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  13. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  14. Vulnerability of populations and man-made facilities to seismic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badal, J.; Vazquez-Prada, M.; Gonzalez, A.; Chourak, M.; Samardzhieva, E.; Zhang, Z.

    2003-04-01

    Earthquakes become major societal risks when they impinge on vulnerable populations. According to the available worldwide data during the twentieth century (NEIC Catalog of Earthquakes 1980-1999), almost half a thousand of earthquakes resulted in more than 1,615,000 human victims. Besides human casualty levels, destructive earthquakes frequently inflict huge economic losses. An additional problem of very different nature, but also worthy of being considered in a damage and loss analysis, is the direct cost associated with the damages derived from a strong seismic impact. We focus our attention on both aspects to their rapid quantitative assessment, and to lessen the earthquake disaster in areas affected by relatively strong earthquakes. Our final goal is the knowledge of potential losses from earthquakes to forward national programs in emergency management, and consequently the minimization of the life loss due to earthquakes, and to aid in response and recovery tasks. For this purpose we follow a suitable and comprehensible methodology for risk-based loss analysis, and simulate the occurence of a seismic event in densely populated areas of Spain.

  15. Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat

    2012-01-01

    The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

  16. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Seismic evaluation of vulnerability for SAMA educational buildings in Tehran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amini, Omid Nassiri; Amiri, Javad Vaseghi

    2008-01-01

    Earthquake is a destructive phenomenon that trembles different parts of the earth yearly and causes many destructions. Iran is one of the (high seismicity) quack- prone parts of the world that has received a lot of pecuniary damages and life losses each year, schools are of the most important places to be protected during such crisis.There was no special surveillance on designing and building of school's building in Tehran till the late 70's, and as Tehran is on faults, instability of such buildings may cause irrecoverable pecuniary damages and especially life losses, therefore preventing this phenomenon is in an urgent need.For this purpose, some of the schools built during 67-78 mostly with Steel braced frame structures have been selected, first, by evaluating the selected Samples, gathering information and Visual Survey, the prepared questionnaires were filled out. With the use of ARIA and SABA (Venezuela) Methods, new modified combined method for qualified evaluations was found and used.Then, for quantified evaluation, with the use of computer 3D models and nonlinear statically analysis methods, a number of selected buildings of qualified evaluation, were reevaluated and finally with nonlinear dynamic analysis method the real behavior of structures on the earthquakes is studied.The results of qualified and quantified evaluations were compared and a proper Pattern for seismic evaluation of Educational buildings was presented. Otherwise the results can be a guidance for the person in charge of retrofitting or if necessary rebuilding the schools

  18. Development on Vulnerability Assessment Methods of PPS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO; Qiang; ZHANG; Wen-liang; BU; Li-xin; YIN; Hong-he; LI; Xin-jun; FANG; Xin

    2013-01-01

    Through investigating information from domestic and abroad,joint the domestic assessment experience,we present a set of physical protection system(PPS)vulnerability assessment methods for on-operating nuclear power plants and for on-designing nuclear facilities.The methods will help to strengthen and upgrade the security measures of the nuclear facilities,improve the effectiveness and

  19. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  20. Assessment of Chemical and Radiological Vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SETH, S.S.

    2000-01-01

    Following the May 14, 1997 chemical explosion at Hanford's Plutonium Reclamation Facility, the Department of Energy Richland Operations Office and its prime contractor, Fluor Hanford, Inc., completed an extensive assessment to identify and address chemical and radiological safety vulnerabilities at all facilities under the Project Hanford Management Contract. This was a challenging undertaking because of the immense size of the problem, unique technical issues, and competing priorities. This paper focuses on the assessment process, including the criteria and methodology for data collection, evaluation, and risk-based scoring. It does not provide details on the facility-specific results and corrective actions, but discusses the approach taken to address the identified vulnerabilities

  1. Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of a Three-Span Continuous Beam Railway Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongwen Jiang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of a railway bridge, a nonlinear finite element model of typical three-span continuous beam bridge on the Sichuan-Tibet railway in China was built. It further aimed at performing a probabilistic seismic demand analysis based on the seismic performance of the above-mentioned bridge. Firstly, the uncertainties of bridge parameters were analyzed while a set of finite element model samples were formulated with Latin hypercube sampling method. Secondly, under Wenchuan earthquake ground motions, an incremental dynamic method (IDA analysis was performed, and the seismic peak responses of bridge components were recorded. Thirdly, the probabilistic seismic demand model for the bridge principal components under the prerequisite of two different kinds of bearing, with and without seismic isolation, was generated. Finally, comparison was drawn to further ascertain the effect of two different kinds of bearings on the fragility components. Based on the reliability theory, results were presented concerning the seismic fragility curves.

  2. Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-10-01

    This Technical Document on Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events is mainly associated with the Safety Practice on Treatment of External Hazards in PSA and discusses in detail one specific external hazard, i.e. earthquakes

  3. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  4. Comparison of seismic margin assessment and probabilistic risk assessment in seismic IPE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.; Kassawara, R.P.

    1993-01-01

    A comparison of technical requirements and managerial issues between seismic margin assessment (SMA) and seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) in a seismic Individual Plant Examination (IPE) is presented and related to requirements for an Unresolved Safety Issue (USI) A-46 review which is required for older nuclear power plants. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for each approach. Technical requirements reviewed for a seismic IPE include: scope of plants covered, seismic input, scope of review, selection of equipment, required experience and training of engineers, walkdown procedure, evaluation of components, relay review, containment review, quality assurance, products, documentation requirements, and closure procedure. Managerial issues discussed include regulatory acceptability, compatibility with seismic IPE, compliance with seismic IPE requirements, ease of use by utilities, and relative cost

  5. Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.

    2011-01-01

    This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

  6. Integrating Social impacts on Health and Health-Care Systems in Systemic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz-Plapp, T.; Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new method for modeling health impacts caused by earthquake damage which allows for integrating key social impacts on individual health and health-care systems and for implementing these impacts in quantitative systemic seismic vulnerability analysis. In current earthquake casualty estimation models, demand on health-care systems is estimated by quantifying the number of fatalities and severity of injuries based on empirical data correlating building damage with casualties. The expected number of injured people (sorted by priorities of emergency treatment) is combined together with post-earthquake reduction of functionality of health-care facilities such as hospitals to estimate the impact on healthcare systems. The aim here is to extend these models by developing a combined engineering and social science approach. Although social vulnerability is recognized as a key component for the consequences of disasters, social vulnerability as such, is seldom linked to common formal and quantitative seismic loss estimates of injured people which provide direct impact on emergency health care services. Yet, there is a consensus that factors which affect vulnerability and post-earthquake health of at-risk populations include demographic characteristics such as age, education, occupation and employment and that these factors can aggravate health impacts further. Similarly, there are different social influences on the performance of health care systems after an earthquake both on an individual as well as on an institutional level. To link social impacts of health and health-care services to a systemic seismic vulnerability analysis, a conceptual model of social impacts of earthquakes on health and the health care systems has been developed. We identified and tested appropriate social indicators for individual health impacts and for health care impacts based on literature research, using available European statistical data. The results will be used to

  7. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  8. Seismic vulnerability: theory and application to Algerian buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mebarki, Ahmed; Boukri, Mehdi; Laribi, Abderrahmane; Farsi, Mohammed; Belazougui, Mohamed; Kharchi, Fattoum

    2014-04-01

    results to the observed damages. For pre-earthquake analysis, the methodology widely used around the world relies on the prior calibration of the seismic response of the structures under given expected scenarios. As the structural response is governed by the constitutive materials and structural typology as well as the seismic input and soil conditions, the damage prediction depends intimately on the accuracy of the so-called fragility curve and response spectrum established for each type of structure (RC framed structures, confined or unconfined masonry, etc.) and soil (hard rock, soft soil, etc.). In the present study, the adaptation to Algerian buildings concerns the specific soil conditions as well as the structural dynamic response. The theoretical prediction of the expected damages is helpful for the calibration of the methodology. Thousands (˜3,700) of real structures and the damages caused by the earthquake (Algeria, Boumerdes: Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003) are considered for the a posteriori calibration and validation process. The theoretical predictions show the importance of the elastic response spectrum, the local soil conditions, and the structural typology. Although the observed and predicted categories of damage are close, it appears that the existing form used for the visual damage inspection would still require further improvements, in order to allow easy evaluation and identification of the damage level. These methods coupled to databases, and GIS tools could be helpful for the local and technical authorities during the post-earthquake evaluation process: real time information on the damage extent at urban or regional scales as well as the extent of losses and the required resources for reconstruction, evacuation, strengthening, etc.

  9. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  10. Seismic and Restoration Assessment of Monumental Masonry Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiotis G. Asteris

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Masonry structures are complex systems that require detailed knowledge and information regarding their response under seismic excitations. Appropriate modelling of a masonry structure is a prerequisite for a reliable earthquake-resistant design and/or assessment. However, modelling a real structure with a robust quantitative (mathematical representation is a very difficult, complex and computationally-demanding task. The paper herein presents a new stochastic computational framework for earthquake-resistant design of masonry structural systems. The proposed framework is based on the probabilistic behavior of crucial parameters, such as material strength and seismic characteristics, and utilizes fragility analysis based on different failure criteria for the masonry material. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case of a historical and monumental masonry structure, namely the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the Kaisariani Monastery, a byzantine church that was built in Athens, Greece, at the end of the 11th to the beginning of the 12th century. Useful conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of the intervention techniques used for the reduction of the vulnerability of the case-study structure, by means of comparison of the results obtained.

  11. Seismic and Restoration Assessment of Monumental Masonry Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asteris, Panagiotis G.; Douvika, Maria G.; Apostolopoulou, Maria; Moropoulou, Antonia

    2017-01-01

    Masonry structures are complex systems that require detailed knowledge and information regarding their response under seismic excitations. Appropriate modelling of a masonry structure is a prerequisite for a reliable earthquake-resistant design and/or assessment. However, modelling a real structure with a robust quantitative (mathematical) representation is a very difficult, complex and computationally-demanding task. The paper herein presents a new stochastic computational framework for earthquake-resistant design of masonry structural systems. The proposed framework is based on the probabilistic behavior of crucial parameters, such as material strength and seismic characteristics, and utilizes fragility analysis based on different failure criteria for the masonry material. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case of a historical and monumental masonry structure, namely the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the Kaisariani Monastery, a byzantine church that was built in Athens, Greece, at the end of the 11th to the beginning of the 12th century. Useful conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of the intervention techniques used for the reduction of the vulnerability of the case-study structure, by means of comparison of the results obtained. PMID:28767073

  12. Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

    2008-01-01

    Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)

  13. Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

    2008-07-01

    Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004).

  14. Input for seismic hazard assessment using Vrancea seismic source region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivan, Iren-Adelina; Enescu, B.D.; Pantea, A.

    1998-01-01

    We use an extended and combined data base including historical and modern, qualitative and quantitative data, i.e., more than 25 events during the period 1790 - 1990 with epicentral/maximum intensities ranging from X to V degree (MSK scale), the variation interval of isoseismal curves ranging from IX th to III rd degree. The data set was analysed using both the sum phasor techniques of Ridelek and Sacks (1984) for different magnitudes and depth intervals and the Stepp's method. For the assessment of seismic hazard we need a pattern of seismic source regions including an estimation for the maximum expected magnitude and the return period for the studied regions. Another necessary step in seismic hazard assessment is to develop attenuation relationships specific to a seismogenic zone, particularly to sub-crustal earthquakes of Vrancea region. The conceptual frame involves the use of appropriate decay models and consideration of the randomness in the attenuation, taking into account the azimuthal variation of the isoseist shapes. (authors)

  15. Coping with subjectivity in vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renis, T.A.; Cardwell, R.G.

    1988-01-01

    Vulnerability assessment models are widely used to systematically evaluate the performance of complex safeguards systems against a variety of threats. These models require varying levels of detail and input data about the physical design of a facility and its safeguards operations and procedures. However, to evaluate safeguards effectiveness and give a performance rating, these models require additional performance data reflecting probabilities of detection, assessment, interruption, and neutralization, as well as the associated times for various adversary scenarios. These data may be attained from equipment design specifications, laboratory testing, expert judgment, or component testing. Regardless of how these data are obtained, they are inherently subjective. This paper addresses the uses of various vulnerability assessment models and the nature of subjectivity in those models. The paper also describes methods for coping with subjective data

  16. Effect of URM infills on seismic vulnerability of Indian code designed RC frame buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haldar, Putul; Singh, Yogendra; Paul, D. K.

    2012-03-01

    Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is the most common partitioning material in framed buildings in India and many other countries. Although it is well-known that under lateral loading the behavior and modes of failure of the frame buildings change significantly due to infill-frame interaction, the general design practice is to treat infills as nonstructural elements and their stiffness, strength and interaction with the frame is often ignored, primarily because of difficulties in simulation and lack of modeling guidelines in design codes. The Indian Standard, like many other national codes, does not provide explicit insight into the anticipated performance and associated vulnerability of infilled frames. This paper presents an analytical study on the seismic performance and fragility analysis of Indian code-designed RC frame buildings with and without URM infills. Infills are modeled as diagonal struts as per ASCE 41 guidelines and various modes of failure are considered. HAZUS methodology along with nonlinear static analysis is used to compare the seismic vulnerability of bare and infilled frames. The comparative study suggests that URM infills result in a significant increase in the seismic vulnerability of RC frames and their effect needs to be properly incorporated in design codes.

  17. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  18. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Gentilly 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Results of this probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were determined using a suite of conservative assumptions. The intent of this study was to perform a limited hazard assessment that incorporated a range of technically defensible input parameters. To best achieve this goal, input selected for the hazard assessment tended to be conservative with respect to selection of attenuation modes, and seismicity parameters. Seismic hazard estimates at Gentilly 2 were most affected by selection of the attenuation model. Alternative definitions of seismic source zones had a relatively small impact on seismic hazard. A St. Lawrence Rift model including a maximum magnitude of 7.2 m b in the zone containing the site had little effect on the hazard estimate relative to other seismic source zonation models. Mean annual probabilities of exceeding the design peak ground acceleration, and the design response spectrum for the Gentilly 2 site were computed to lie in the range of 0.001 to 0.0001. This hazard result falls well within the range determined to be acceptable for nuclear reactor sites located throughout the eastern United States. (author) 34 refs., 6 tabs., 28 figs

  19. How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco

    2017-07-01

    Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

  20. Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults.  These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system.  The service disruption is known as outage or blackout.  The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.

  1. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  2. Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

    2002-01-01

    With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA) deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks ...

  3. Seismic assessment and performance of nonstructural components affected by structural modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hur, Jieun; Althoff, Eric; Sezen, Halil; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc [Ohio State University, Columbus (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) requires a large number of simulations to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structural and nonstructural components in nuclear power plants. The effect of structural modeling and analysis assumptions on dynamic analysis of 3D and simplified 2D stick models of auxiliary buildings and the attached nonstructural components is investigated. Dynamic characteristics and seismic performance of building models are also evaluated, as well as the computational accuracy of the models. The presented results provide a better understanding of the dynamic behavior and seismic performance of auxiliary buildings. The results also help to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated with modeling and analysis of simplified numerical models of structural and nonstructural components subjected to seismic shaking on the predicted seismic failure probabilities of these systems.

  4. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  5. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announces that the TSA Maritime Self-Assessment Risk Module (TMSARM), developed to support the United States...

  6. Seismic isolation - efficient procedure for seismic response assessement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamfir, M. A.; Androne, M.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this analysis is to reduce the dynamic response of a structure. The seismic isolation solution must take into consideration the specific site ground motion. In this paper will be presented results obtained by applying the seismic isolation method. Based on the obtained results, important conclusions can be outlined: the seismic isolation device has the ability to reduce seismic acceleration of the seismic isolated structure to values that no longer present a danger to people and environment; the seismic isolation solution is limiting devices deformations to safety values for ensuring structural integrity and stability of the entire system; the effective seismic energy dissipation and with no side effects both for the seismic isolated building and for the devices used, and the return to the initial position before earthquake occurence are obtained with acceptable permanent displacement. (authors)

  7. A geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment of transportation networks against extreme earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kermanshah, A.; Derrible, S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide a geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method to quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on road networks. The method is applied to two US cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which are susceptible to severe seismic activities. Aided by the recent proliferation of data and the wide adoption of Geography Information Systems (GIS), we use a data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations in road networks. To simulate the extreme earthquake, we remove road sections within “very strong” intensities provided by USGS. Subsequently, we measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: overall properties (length of remaining system); topological indicators (betweenness centrality); accessibility; and travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. The various metrics are then plotted on a Vulnerability Surface (VS), from which the area can be assimilated to an overall vulnerability indicator. This VS approach offers a simple and pertinent method to capture the impacts of extreme earthquake. It can also be useful to planners to assess the robustness of various alternative scenarios in their plans to ensure that cities located in seismic areas are better prepared to face severe earthquakes. - Highlights: • Developed geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method. • Quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on transportation networks. • Data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations. • Measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: ○Overall properties. ○Topological indicators. ○Accessibility. ○Travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. • Developed Vulnerability Surface (VS), a new pragmatic vulnerability indicator.

  8. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onur, Tuna [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gok, Rengin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abdulnaby, Wathiq [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shakir, Ammar M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mahdi, Hanan [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Numan, Nazar M.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Al-Shukri, Haydar [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chlaib, Hussein K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ameen, Taher H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abd, Najah A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-05-06

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

  9. SHC, Seismic Hazard Assessment for Eastern US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.; Davis, B.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SHC was developed as part of the Eastern United States (EUS) Seismic Hazard Characterization (SHC) Project to design an SHC methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains in a form suitable for probabilistic risk assessment and to apply that methodology to 69 site locations, some of them with local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analysis. SHC contains four modules which calculate the seismic hazard at a site located in a region of diffuse seismicity, where the seismicity is modeled by area sources. SHC integrates the opinions of 11 seismicity and five ground-motion experts. The PRDS model generates the discrete probability density function of the distances to the site for the various seismic source zones. These probability distributions are used by the COMAP module to generate the set of all alternative maps and the discrete probability density of the seismic zonation maps for each expert. The third module, ALEAS, uses these maps and their weights to calculate the best estimate and constant percentile hazard distribution resulting from the choice of a given seismicity expert for all ground-motion experts. This module can be used alone to perform a seismic hazard analysis as well as in conjunction with the other modules. The fourth module, COMB, combines the best- estimate and constant-percentile hazard over all seismicity experts, using the set of weights calculated by ALEAS, to produce the final probability distribution of the hazard for the site under consideration so that the hazard analysis can be performed for any location in the EUS. Local geological-site characteristics are incorporated in a generic fashion, and the data are developed in a generic manner. 2 - Method of solution: SHC uses a seismic-source approach utilizing statistical and geological evidence to define geographical regions with homogeneous Poisson activity throughout the zone, described by a

  10. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  12. Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

    2008-01-01

    The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions

  13. Seismic Performance Assessment and Strengthening of Gazimagusa Namik Kemal Lisesi

    OpenAIRE

    Yardımcı, Temuçin

    2009-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Many destructive earthquakes occurred in Cyprus. However, the potential seismic risk of the buildings in Cyprus is not known well since vulnerability is unknown. Especially in the Northern part of the Island building inventory has variation regarding seismic performance. On the other hand, in Northern Cyprus there are more than 150 school buildings with different ages. Most of these buildings have been constructed before the use of modern seismic codes. In other words, only gravity...

  14. Evolution of a seismic risk assessment technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Cummings, G.E.

    1985-01-01

    To assist the NRC in its licensing evaluation role the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was started at LLNL in 1978. Its goal was to develop tools and data bases to evaluate the probability of earthquake caused radioactive releases from commercial nuclear power plants. The methodology was finalized in 1982 and a seismic risk assessment of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant was finished in 1983. Work continues on the study of the LaSalle Boiling Water Reactor. This paper will discuss some of the effects of the assumptions made during development of the systems analysis techniques used in SSMRP in light of the results obtained on studies to date. 5 refs

  15. GIS-based seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    permanent displacement potentially induced by an seismic scenario. Such methodologies found on the consideration that the conditions of seismic stability and the post-seismic functionality of engineering structures are tightly related to the entity of the permanent deformations that an earthquake can induce. Regarding the existing simplified procedures among slope stability models, Newmark's model is often used to derive indications about slope instabilities due to earthquakes. In this way, we have evaluated the seismically-induced landslides hazard in Sicily (Central Mediterranean) using the Newmark-like model. In order to determine the map distribution of the seismic ground-acceleration from an earthquake scenario, the attenuation-law of Sabetta & Pugliese has been used, analyzing some seismic recordings occurred in Italy. Also, by evaluating permanent displacements, the correlation of Ambraseys & Menu has been assumed. The seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily has been carried out using GIS application, also considering max seismic ground-acceleration peak distribution (in terms of exceedance probability for fixed time), slope acclivity, cohesion/angle of internal friction of outcropping rocks, allowing the zoning of the unstable slopes under seismic forces.

  16. Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

  17. Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

  18. Seismic vulnerability and damage of Italian historical centres: A case study in the Campania region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Landolfo, Raffaele

    2017-07-01

    The preservation of masonry buildings typical of Italian historical centres represents a very pressing dilemma founded on recovery need of the urban fabric original character. In the paper, based on a methodology developed by some of the Authors on building aggregates, the seismic vulnerability estimation of some masonry compounds in the heart of the town of San PotitoSannitico (Caserta, Italy) is presented and compared to the results achieved from applying the basic literature method for isolated constructions. Finally, the damage scenario of inspected buildings has been shown by highlighting clearly the influence of different positions of structural units on the damages that masonry aggregates suffer under different grade earthquakes, leading to individuate the most vulnerable buildings.

  19. The assessment of radio vulnerability in agroecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasserman, Maria Angelica; Viana, Aline G.; Conti, Claudio C.; Rochedo, Elaine R.; Vivone, Ronaldo J.; Bartoly, Flavia; Perez, Daniel V.

    2005-01-01

    A soil specific sequential extraction protocol, associated to soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data is proposed in this work as a methodology able to detect vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to the contamination with 137 Cs and 90 Sr. The objective is to provide parameters for environmental assessment models and to optimize emergency response planning for the main Brazilian agro-ecosystems and to other Countries with similar soil conditions. Transfer factor values were determined for reference plants, cultivated in Ferralsol, Nitisol and Acrisol that constitute great part in the national agricultural soil. The preliminary results of geochemical partition for these radionuclides were coherent with soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data. And with some soil properties recognized by the specialized literature as related with mechanisms of sorption to Cs (e.g. exchangeable K, organic matter and iron oxides content) and Sr (e.g. exchangeable Ca). Nitisol, showed lower TF for 90 Sr and 137 Cs compared with the other studied soil. In the Nitisol, it is possible that reduction in 137 Cs transfer be also associated with fixation in the internal faces of 2:1 clay mineral type. The integration of experimental methods results obtained in the laboratory with results obtained in field experiments seems to confirm the vulnerability of some Brazilian soil to the radioactivity contamination. (author)

  20. Seismic assessment and upgrading of Paks nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamas, K.

    2001-01-01

    A comprehensive programme for seismic assessment and upgrading is currently in progress at Hungary's Paks NPP. The re-evaluation of the site seismic hazard had been already completed. The technology of safe shut down and heat removal is established and the systems and structures relevant for seismic safety are identified. A seismic instrumentation is installed. The pre-earthquake preparedness and post-earthquake actions are elaborated. The methods for seismic capacity assessment are selected. The seismic capacity evaluation and the design of upgrading measures are currently in progress. The easy to perform upgrading covering the most urgent measures had been already performed. (author)

  1. Mine aftershocks and implications for seismic hazard assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kgarume, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A methodology of assessing the seismic hazard associated with aftershocks is developed by performing statistical and deterministic analysis of seismic data from two South African deep-level gold mines. A method employing stacking of aftershocks...

  2. Seismic assessment of existing nuclear chemical plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merriman, P.A.

    1997-01-01

    This paper outlines the generic approach to the seismic assessment of existing structures. It describes the role of the safety case in determining the studies carried out by the functional departments on individual projects. There is an emphasis on the role of existing information and material tests to provide realistic properties for analysis to account for possible degradation effects. Finally, a case study of a concrete containment cell is shown to illustrate the approach. (author)

  3. An assessment of coastal vulnerability for the South African coast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...

  4. Simplified Assessment of R3 Nominal Assurance Degree to Seismic Action of the Existing Masonry Dwellings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Broşteanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper refers to the assessment of the performance level of a building for a given seismic hazard level. Building performance level describes the expected seismic performance given by the computation of R3 Nominal Assurance Degree to Seismic Action of the Existing Masonry Dwellings and Monumental Buildings according to the Romanian Norm P100:1992 [1], modified on 1996 with the chapters 11 and 12, until the Part 3 of P100-1:2006 [2], will be performed for the Assessment and Strengthening Structural Design of the Seismic Vulnerable, Existing Buildings, in the frame of SR EN 1998-1:2004 EC8 [3]. The framing of damages into the potential risk degrees has a social and economic impact. Assessment and retrofitting of the existing buildings have represented a huge engineering challenge as a distinct problem versus a new building design. The performance level of a vulnerable existing building shows us the expected seismic performance level due to the classified damages, the pattern of cracks, the interruption of function, the economic losses and the needed interventions, all in function of the importance class of building on next life span of use. On recommends the computation of R (R3 Nominal Assurance Degree to Seismic Action of the Vulnerable Dwellings for the assessing and strengthening design, in comparison to both norms because of the bearing conventional seismic load computed by [1], will result less than the value which will be computed by the Part 3 of P100-1:2006, i.e. the norm P100:1992 is more severe. In the case of the breakable fracture probability of the existing structural masonry members, one recommends a bigger value of ? – reduction factor unless the given values by [1] for a new structure with a high ductility, especially for the deflections calibration on the same limit state.

  5. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  6. Seismic hazard assessment; Valutazione della pericolosita` sismica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paciello, A. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents a brief summary of the most commonly used methodologies for seismic hazard assessment. The interest is focused on the probabilistic approach, which can take into account the uncertainties of input data and provides results better comparable with those obtained from hazard analyses of other natural phenomena. Calculation methods, input data and treatment of variability are examined. Some examples of probabilistic seismic hazard maps are moreover presented. [Italiano] Questo lavoro presenta un breve sommario delle piu` comuni metodologie utilizzate per la valutazione della pericolosita` sismica di un sito. Una particolare attenzione e` rivolta all`approccio probabilistico, che permette di tener conto delle incertezze legate ai dati iniziali e fornisce risultati piu` facilmente confrontabili con quelli ottenuti da analisi di pericolosita` di altri fenomeni naturali. Vengono presi in esame i metodi di calcolo, i dati di base e il trattamento delle incertezze. Vengono inoltre presentati alcuni esempi di carte di pericolosita` sismica di tipo probabilistico.

  7. Development of a Malicious Insider Composite Vulnerability Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    King, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...

  8. Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Parulekar, Y.M.

    2007-01-01

    This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  9. STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MASONRY BUILDINGS IN TURKEY

    OpenAIRE

    KORKMAZ, Kasım Armagan; CARHOGLU, Asuman Isıl

    2011-01-01

    Turkey is located in an active seismic zone. Mid to high rise R/C building and low rise masonry buildings are very common construction type in Turkey. In recent earthquakes, lots of existing buildings got damage including masonry buildings. Masonry building history in Turkey goes long years back. For sure, it is an important structure type for Turkey. Therefore, earthquake behavior and structural vulnerability of masonry buildings are crucial issues for Turkey as a earthquake prone country. I...

  10. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  11. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...

  12. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

  13. Rockfall vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.

    2010-10-01

    The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.

  14. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...

  15. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...

  16. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  17. Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

    2012-04-01

    This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

  18. Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-10-01

    In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

  19. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-06-01

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  20. Seismic Vulnerability Evaluations Within The Structural And Functional Survey Activities Of The COM Bases In Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Albanese, V.; Mercuri, C.; Papa, F.; Pizza, A. G.; Sergio, S.; Severino, M.

    2008-01-01

    The paper describes technical and functional surveys on COM buildings (Mixed Operative Centre). This activity started since 2005, with the contribution of both Italian Civil Protection Department and the Regions involved. The project aims to evaluate the efficiency of COM buildings, checking not only structural, architectonic and functional characteristics but also paying attention to surrounding real estate vulnerability, road network, railways, harbours, airports, area morphological and hydro-geological characteristics, hazardous activities, etc. The first survey was performed in eastern Sicily, before the European Civil Protection Exercise ''EUROSOT 2005''. Then, since 2006, a new survey campaign started in Abruzzo, Molise, Calabria and Puglia Regions. The more important issue of the activity was the vulnerability assessment. So this paper deals with a more refined vulnerability evaluation technique by means of the SAVE methodology, developed in the 1st task of SAVE project within the GNDT-DPC programme 2000-2002 (Zuccaro, 2005); the SAVE methodology has been already successfully employed in previous studies (i.e. school buildings intervention programme at national scale; list of strategic public buildings in Campania, Sicilia and Basilicata). In this paper, data elaborated by SAVE methodology are compared with expert evaluations derived from the direct inspections on COM buildings. This represents a useful exercise for the improvement either of the survey forms or of the methodology for the quick assessment of the vulnerability

  1. Effective vulnerability assessments for physical security devices, systems, and programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, R.G.; Garcia, A.R.E.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The efficacy of devices, systems, and programs used for physical security depend critically on having periodic and effective vulnerability assessments. Effective vulnerability assessments, in turn, require certain conditions and attributes. These include: a proper understanding of their purpose; not confusing vulnerability assessments with other kinds of metrics, analyses, tests, and security exercises; the view that vulnerabilities are inevitable, and that finding them is good news (since they can then be mitigated), not bad news; rejection of findings of no vulnerabilities; avoidance of mere 'compliance mode' rubber stamping; the use of the proper outside, independent, imaginative personnel; psychologically predisposed to finding and demonstrating problems; the absence of conflicts of interest; no unrealistic constraints on the possible attack tools, procedures, personnel, or strategies; efforts to not just find and demonstrate vulnerabilities, but also to suggest possible countermeasures; proper context; input and buy-in from ALL facility security personnel, especially low-level personnel; emphasis on the simplest, most relevant attacks first; no underestimation of potential adversaries; consideration of fault analysis attacks; awareness of Rohrbach's Maxim and Shannon's Maxim. In addition to these factors, we will cover some of the complex issues and problems associated with the design of vulnerability assessments. There will also be suggestions on how to conduct effective vulnerability assessments on a severely limited budget. We will conclude with a discussion of both conventional and unconventional ways of reporting results. (author)

  2. Development of fragility descriptions of equipment for seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, G.S.; Campbell, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant for postulated hazard requires the development of fragility relationships for the plants' safety related equipment. The objective of this paper is to present some general results and conclusions concerning the development of these seismic fragility levels. Participation in fragility-related research and experience gained from the completion of several PRA studies of a variety of nuclear power plants have provided much insight as to the most vulnerable equipment and the most efficient use of resources for development of fragilities. Plants studied had seismic design bases ranging from very simple equivalent static analysis for some of the earlier plants to state-of-the-art complex multimode dyanamic analyses for plants currently under construction. Increased sophistication and rigor in seismic qualification of equipment has resulted for the most part in increased seismic resistance. The majority of equipment has been found, however, to possess more than adequate resistance to seismic loading regardless of the degree of sophistication utilized in design as long as seismic loading was included in the design process. This paper presents conclusions of the authors as to which items of equipment typically require an individual ''plant-specific'' fragility analysis and which can be treated in a generic fashion. In addition, general conclusions on the relative seismic capacity levels and most frequent failure modes are summarized for generic equipment groups

  3. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

  4. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

  5. 6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215 Section 27.215 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...

  6. Assessment of food fraud vulnerability in the spices chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, I.C.J.; Ruth, van S.M.; Fels, van der Ine; Luning, P.A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent scandals have increased the need to strengthen companies’ ability to combat fraud within their own organizations and across their supply chain. Vulnerability assessments are a first step towards the inventory of fraud vulnerability and fraud mitigation plans. Spices are reported frequently

  7. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  8. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and sensitivity to pollution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Groundwater pollution caused by human activity is a serious environmental problem in cities. Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas vulnerable to pollution. The present study is a detailed investigation of the potential for groundwater contamination through ...

  9. Site response assessment using borehole seismic records

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Donghee; Chang, Chunjoong; Choi, Weonhack [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In regions with high seismic activity, such as Japan, the Western United States and Taiwan, borehole seismometers installed deep underground are used to monitor seismic activity during the course of seismic wave propagation at various depths and to study the stress changes due to earthquakes and analyze the connection to fault movements. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Korea Institute of Geology and Mining (KIGAM) have installed and are operating borehole seismometers at a depth of 70∼100 meters for the precise determination of epicenters. Also, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) has installed and is operating 2 borehole seismic stations near Weolseong area to observe at a depth of 140 meters seismic activities connected to fault activity. KHNP plans to operate in the second half of 2014 a borehole seismic station for depths less than 300 and 600 meters in order to study the seismic response characteristics in deep strata. As a basic study for analyzing ground motion response characteristics at depths of about 300 to 600 meters in connection with the deep geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel, the present study examined the background noise response characteristics of the borehole seismic station operated by KHNP. In order to analyze the depth-dependent impact of seismic waves at deeper depths than in Korea, seismic data collected by Japan's KIK-net seismic stations were used and the seismic wave characteristics analyzed by size and depth. In order to analyze the borehole seismic observation data from the seismic station operated by KHNP, this study analyzed the background noise characteristics by using a probability density function.

  10. Site response assessment using borehole seismic records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Donghee; Chang, Chunjoong; Choi, Weonhack

    2014-01-01

    In regions with high seismic activity, such as Japan, the Western United States and Taiwan, borehole seismometers installed deep underground are used to monitor seismic activity during the course of seismic wave propagation at various depths and to study the stress changes due to earthquakes and analyze the connection to fault movements. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Korea Institute of Geology and Mining (KIGAM) have installed and are operating borehole seismometers at a depth of 70∼100 meters for the precise determination of epicenters. Also, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) has installed and is operating 2 borehole seismic stations near Weolseong area to observe at a depth of 140 meters seismic activities connected to fault activity. KHNP plans to operate in the second half of 2014 a borehole seismic station for depths less than 300 and 600 meters in order to study the seismic response characteristics in deep strata. As a basic study for analyzing ground motion response characteristics at depths of about 300 to 600 meters in connection with the deep geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel, the present study examined the background noise response characteristics of the borehole seismic station operated by KHNP. In order to analyze the depth-dependent impact of seismic waves at deeper depths than in Korea, seismic data collected by Japan's KIK-net seismic stations were used and the seismic wave characteristics analyzed by size and depth. In order to analyze the borehole seismic observation data from the seismic station operated by KHNP, this study analyzed the background noise characteristics by using a probability density function

  11. Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

    1977-03-01

    The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology.

  12. Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

    1977-01-01

    The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology

  13. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  14. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  15. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  16. [Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

    2009-03-01

    Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

  17. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  18. Seismic Performance Assessment and Strengthening of a Multi-Story RC Building through a Case Study of “Seaside Hotel”

    OpenAIRE

    Rasol, Mezgeen Abdulrahman

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: In recent years great developments have been made in the assessment of existing buildings and their performance in resistance to earthquake loading, potential seismic risk, vulnerability and lateral loads. Existing buildings can be repaired and strengthened to include new developments and methods to resist earthquake and seismic loads, which is the most economical way to safeguard against the economic and social catastrophe affected by severe seismic activity in urban environments. ...

  19. The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

  20. An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mohammad

    Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...

  1. All rights reserved Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-12

    Dec 12, 2017 ... Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas ... the application of DRASTIC model, the relationship ..... mathematical structure of consistent matrices and the.

  2. Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste ... existing municipal solid waste management crisis facing Dar es Salaam City using ... enabling environment of turning rampant solid waste collection a commercial ...

  3. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la

    2005-01-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)

  4. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  5. Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

    1997-01-01

    To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probability (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. The use of some very high value for the seismic acceleration imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very costly technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase maintenance costs. The considerations of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced, may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The paper proposes the applications of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects NPP Cernavoda site, by this method. The paper also presents the manner to analyse the focus activity as per the new approach and it assesses the maximum seismic acceleration that may affect NPP Cernavoda throughout its life-span (∼ 30 years). Development and applications of new mathematical analysis method, both for long - and short - time intervals, may lead to important contributions in the process of foretelling the seismic events in the future. (authors)

  6. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. An assessment of seismic monitoring in the United States; requirement for an Advanced National Seismic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1999-01-01

    This report assesses the status, needs, and associated costs of seismic monitoring in the United States. It sets down the requirement for an effective, national seismic monitoring strategy and an advanced system linking national, regional, and urban monitoring networks. Modernized seismic monitoring can provide alerts of imminent strong earthquake shaking; rapid assessment of distribution and severity of earthquake shaking (for use in emergency response); warnings of a possible tsunami from an offshore earthquake; warnings of volcanic eruptions; information for correctly characterizing earthquake hazards and for improving building codes; and data on response of buildings and structures during earthquakes, for safe, cost-effective design, engineering, and construction practices in earthquake-prone regions.

  8. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  9. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  10. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    OpenAIRE

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-01-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure...

  11. Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

    2017-10-01

    Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  12. A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan

    2017-11-01

    Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

  13. Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a maritime transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berle, Oyvind; Asbjornslett, Bjorn Egil; Rice, James B.

    2011-01-01

    World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where maritime transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a maritime transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued-the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.

  14. An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguo Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

  15. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaming Ye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  16. Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Murray, R.C.; Ravindra, M.K.; Reed, J.W.; Stevenson, J.D.

    1989-03-01

    Seismic margin review of nuclear power plants requires that the High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity be calculated for certain components. The candidate methods for calculating the HCLPF capacity as recommended by the Expert Panel on Quantification of Seismic Margins are the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin (CDFM) method and the Fragility Analysis (FA) method. The present study evaluated these two methods using some representative components in order to provide further guidance in conducting seismic margin reviews. It is concluded that either of the two methods could be used for calculating HCLPF capacities. 21 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs

  17. Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

    2016-11-15

    Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Funciones de vulnerabilidad calculadas para edificaciones en muros de hormigón reforzado Calculated seismic vulnerability functions for building in walls of reinforced concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esperanza Maldonado Rondón

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available En este documento se presenta una metodología que valora el nivel de daño que pueden alcanzar las edificaciones correspondientes al sistema estructural de muros de hormigón reforzado. El modelo estima un índice de vulnerabilidad calculado en función de las características de la estructura que más influyen en su comportamiento sísmico, y lo relaciona con un índice de daño, que a su vez depende de la acción del movimiento sísmico. El modelo estima diferentes grados de vulnerabilidad, y por consiguiente, define distintos niveles de daño ante una misma acción. La relación de la vulnerabilidad con el daño se materializa mediante una forma continua con las funciones de vulnerabilidad. El modelo se construyó sobre una muestra de edificaciones reales e hipotéticas las cuales representan las características más relevantes de las edificaciones de este tipo en el medio colombiano.This document contains a methodology to assess the level of damage that buildings with reinforced concrete wall structural system may reach. The model estimates a vulnerability rate calculated in function of structure characteristics that most influent a seismic behaviour, and relates this value to a damage rate, which, in turn, depends on the action of seismic movements. The model estimates different levels of vulnerability and, consequently, defines different damages produced the same action. The vulnerability / damage ratio is materialized to vulnerability function in a continuous manner. The model was constructed on a sample of real and hypothetical buildings representing the most relevant characteristics of this type of buildings in Colombia.

  19. Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

    2013-02-01

    A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

  20. Seismic vulnerability assessment of a continuous steel box girder ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tae-Hyung Lee

    2018-02-07

    Feb 7, 2018 ... nonlinear time history analysis is the most widely used and the most reliable method ... the damage probability for the non-isolated bridge is larger than those of the isolated .... [17] and are adjusted for a simulated facilitation purpose. ..... function is assumed as a log-normal cumulative distribution function ...

  1. Improving tag/seal technologies: the vulnerability assessment component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), specifically the Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, has sponsored the development of numerous tag and seal technologies for high-security/high-valued applications. One important component in this technology development effort has been the continuous integration of vulnerability assessments. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been the lead laboratory for vulnerability assessments of fiber-optic-based tag/seal technologies. This paper presents a brief historical overview and the current status of the DOE high-security tag/seal development program and discusses INEL's adversarial role and assessment philosophy. Verification testing criteria used to define ''successful'' tampering attempts/attacks are discussed. Finally, the advantages of integrating a vulnerability assessment into the development of commercial security tag/seals are presented

  2. Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

    2001-01-01

    1. To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. 2. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probabilities (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. 3. The use of some very high values for the seismic accelerations imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very expensive technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase the maintenance costs. 4. The consideration of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The method is useful for two purposes: a) research, i.e. homogenizing the history data basis by the generation of earthquakes during periods lacking information and correlation of the information with the existing information. The aim is to perform the hazard analysis using a homogeneous data set in order to determine the seismic design data for a site; b) operation, i.e. the performance of a prognosis on the seismic activity on a certain site and consideration of preventive measures to minimize the possible effects of an earthquake. 5. The paper proposes the application of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects Cernavoda NPP site by this method. 6. The paper also presents the

  3. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power Corp., Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada); Lavine, A. [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, California (United States); Egan, J. [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, California (United States)

    2015-09-15

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components-a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  4. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D., E-mail: dmullin@nbpower.com [New Brunswick Power Corporation, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Point Lepreau, NB (Canada); Lavine, A., E-mail: alexis.lavine@amecfw.com [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, CA (United States); Egan, J., E-mail: jegan@sageengineers.com [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, CA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components--a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  5. Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

  6. Impact Assessment of Its Applications for Vulnerable Road Users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J.; Noort, M. van; Johansson, C.; Mans, D.; Silla, A.; Bell, D.; Hancox, G.; Leden, L.; Giannelos, I.; Bax, B.; Malone, K.

    2016-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  7. Impact assessment of ITS applications for vulnerable road users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J. Noort, M. van Johansson, C. Mans, D. Silla, A. Bell, D. Hancox, G. Leden, L. Giannelos, I. Bax, B. & Malone, K.

    2017-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  8. Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

    2017-12-01

    Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

  9. Assessment of seismic design response factors of concrete wall buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwafy, Aman

    2011-03-01

    To verify the seismic design response factors of high-rise buildings, five reference structures, varying in height from 20- to 60-stories, were selected and designed according to modern design codes to represent a wide range of concrete wall structures. Verified fiber-based analytical models for inelastic simulation were developed, considering the geometric nonlinearity and material inelasticity of the structural members. The ground motion uncertainty was accounted for by employing 20 earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios, consistent with the latest understanding of the tectonic setting and seismicity of the selected reference region (UAE). A large number of Inelastic Pushover Analyses (IPAs) and Incremental Dynamic Collapse Analyses (IDCAs) were deployed for the reference structures to estimate the seismic design response factors. It is concluded that the factors adopted by the design code are adequately conservative. The results of this systematic assessment of seismic design response factors apply to a wide variety of contemporary concrete wall buildings with various characteristics.

  10. Input parameters for the statistical seismic hazard assessment in central part of Romania territory using crustal earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldovan, A.I.; Bazacliu, O.; Popescu, E.

    2004-01-01

    The seismic hazard assessment in dense-populated geographical regions and subsequently the design of the strategic objectives (dams, nuclear power plants, etc.) are based on the knowledge of the seismicity parameters of the seismic sources which can generate ground motion amplitudes above the minimum level considered risky at the specific site and the way the seismic waves propagate between the focus and the site. The purpose of this paper is to provide a set of information required for a probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in the central Romanian territory relative to the following seismic sources: Fagaras zone (FC), Campulung zone (CP), and Transilvania zone (TD) all of them in the crust domain. Extremely vulnerable objectives are present in the central part of Romania, including cities of Pitesti and Sibiu and the 'Vidraru' dam. The analysis that we propose implies: (1) geometrical definition of the seismic sources, (2) estimation of the maximum possible magnitude, (3) estimation of the frequency - magnitude relationship and (4) estimation of the attenuation laws. As an example, the obtained input parameters are used to evaluate the seismic hazard distribution due to the crustal earthquakes applying the McGuire's procedure (1976). These preliminary results are in good agreement with the previous research based on deterministic approach (Radulian et al., 2000). (authors)

  11. Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

    2015-01-07

    Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

  12. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Božidar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.

  13. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  14. Seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, HoHyun; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Hyun, Chang-Hun; Kim, Moon-Soo; Shin, Hyun Mock

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for assessing seismic damage of concrete containment structures using the nonlinear time-history numerical analysis. For this purpose, two kinds of damage index are introduced at finite element and structural levels. Nonlinear finite element analysis for the containment structure applies PSC shell elements using a layered approach leading to damage indices at finite element and structural levels, which are then used to assess the seismic damage of the containment structure. As an example of such seismic damage assessment, seismic damages of the containment structure of Wolsong I nuclear power plant in Korea are evaluated against 30 artificial earthquakes generated with a wide range of PGA according to US NRC regulatory guide 1.60. Structural responses and corresponding damage index according to the level of PGA and nonlinearity are investigated. It is also shown that the containment structure behaves elastically for earthquakes corresponding to or lower than DBE. (author)

  15. The Vulnerability Assessment Code for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2007-01-01

    To neutralize the increasing terror threats, nuclear facilities have strong physical protection system (PPS). PPS includes detectors, door locks, fences, regular guard patrols, and a hot line to a nearest military force. To design an efficient PPS and to fully operate it, vulnerability assessment process is required. Evaluating PPS of a nuclear facility is complicate process and, hence, several assessment codes have been developed. The estimation of adversary sequence interruption (EASI) code analyzes vulnerability along a single intrusion path. To evaluate many paths to a valuable asset in an actual facility, the systematic analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (SAVI) code was developed. KAERI improved SAVI and made the Korean analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (KAVI) code. Existing codes (SAVI and KAVI) have limitations in representing the distance of a facility because they use the simplified model of a PPS called adversary sequence diagram. In adversary sequence diagram the position of doors, sensors and fences is described just as the locating area. Thus, the distance between elements is inaccurate and we cannot reflect the range effect of sensors. In this abstract, we suggest accurate and intuitive vulnerability assessment based on raster map modeling of PPS. The raster map of PPS accurately represents the relative position of elements and, thus, the range effect of sensor can be easily incorporable. Most importantly, the raster map is easy to understand

  16. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  17. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  18. A Case Study of Geologic Hazards Affecting School Buildings: Evaluating Seismic Structural Vulnerability and Landslide Hazards at Schools in Aizawl, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perley, M. M.; Guo, J.

    2016-12-01

    India's National School Safety Program (NSSP) aims to assess all government schools in earthquake prone regions of the country. To supplement the Mizoram State Government's recent survey of 141 government schools, we screened an additional 16 private and 4 government schools for structural vulnerabilities due to earthquakes, as well as landslide hazards, in Mizoram's capital of Aizawl. We developed a geomorphologically derived landslide susceptibility matrix, which was cross-checked with Aizawl Municipal Corporation's landslide hazard map (provided by Lettis Consultants International), to determine the geologic hazards at each school. Our research indicates that only 7% of the 22 assessed school buildings are located within low landslide hazard zones; 64% of the school buildings, with approximately 9,500 students, are located within very high or high landslide hazard zones. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was used to determine the structural earthquake vulnerability of each school building. RVS is an initial vulnerability assessment procedure used to inventory and rank buildings that may be hazardous during an earthquake. Our study indicates that all of the 22 assessed school buildings have a damageability rating of Grade 3 or higher on the 5-grade EMS scale, suggesting a significant vulnerability and potential for damage in buildings, ranging from widespread cracking of columns and beam column joints to collapse. Additionally, 86% of the schools we visited had reinforced concrete buildings constructed before Aizawl's building regulations were passed in 2007, which can be assumed to lack appropriate seismic reinforcement. Using our findings, we will give recommendations to the Government of Mizoram to prevent unnecessary loss of life by minimizing each school's landslide risk and ensuring schools are earthquake-resistant.

  19. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepp, J.C.; Price, R.A.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Klimkiewicz, G.C.; McGuire, R.K.

    1995-10-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. The format of each session involved invited presentations of relevant data followed by open presentations by participants, a general discussion focusing on the relevance of the presented information for seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario, then development of conclusions and recommendations. In the final session, the conclusions and recommendations were summarized and an open discussion was held to develop consensus. This report presents perspective summaries of the workshop technical sessions together with conclusions and recommendations prepared by the session chairs and the general chairman. 2 refs

  20. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  1. An assessment of seismic margins in nuclear plant piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.P.; Jaquay, K.R.; Chokshi, N.C.; Terao, D.

    1995-01-01

    Interim results of an ongoing program to assist the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in developing regulatory positions on the seismic analyses of piping and overall safety margins of piping systems are reported. Results of reviews of previous seismic testing, primarily the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)/NRC Piping and Fitting Dynamic Reliability Program, and assessments of the ASME Code, Section III, piping seismic design criteria as revised by the 1994 Addenda are reported. Major issues are identified herein only. Technical details are to be provided elsewhere. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

  2. Seismic Hazard Analysis based on Earthquake Vulnerability and Peak Ground Acceleration using Microseismic Method at Universitas Negeri Semarang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistiawan, H.; Supriyadi; Yulianti, I.

    2017-02-01

    Microseismic is a harmonic vibration of land that occurs continuously at a low frequency. The characteristics of microseismic represents the characteristics of the soil layer based on the value of its natural frequency. This paper presents the analysis of seismic hazard at Universitas Negeri Semarang using microseismic method. The data acquisition was done at 20 points with distance between points 300 m by using three component’s seismometer. The data was processed using Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method to obtain the natural frequency and amplification value. The value of the natural frequency and amplification used to determine the value of the earthquake vulnerability and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The result shows then the earthquake vulnerability value range from 0.2 to 7.5, while the value of the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) is in the range 10-24 gal. Therefore, the average peak ground acceleration equal to earthquake intensity IV MMI scale.

  3. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. de Brito

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  4. Vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings exposed to landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; De Gregorio, D.; Santo, A.; Di Crescenzo, G.; Foerster, E.; Ulrich, T.

    2014-01-01

    The methodologies available for the analytical quantification of the vulnerability of buildings which are subject to actions resulting from slope instabilities and landslides are relatively limited in comparison with other components of quantitative landslide risk assessment. This paper provides a general methodology for calculating the vulnerabilities of reinforced concrete frame structures that are subject to three types of slope instability: slow-moving landslides, rapid flow-type slides and rock falls. The vulnerability is expressed using sets of fragility curves. A description of the general framework and of the specialised procedures employed is presented here, separately for each landslide mechanism, through the example of a single-bay one-storey reinforced concrete frame. The properties of the frame are taken into account as variables with associated uncertainties. The derived vulnerability curves presented here can be used directly by risk assessment practitioners without having to repeat the procedure, given the expected range of landslide intensities and for similar building typologies and ranges of structural characteristics. This permits the applicability of the calculated vulnerability to a wide variety of similar frames for a range of landslide intensity parameters. (authors)

  5. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  6. Seismic vulnerability of the Himalayan half-dressed rubble stone masonry structures, experimental and analytical studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Ahmad

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Half-Dressed rubble stone (DS masonry structures as found in the Himalayan region are investigated using experimental and analytical studies. The experimental study included a shake table test on a one-third scaled structural model, a representative of DS masonry structure employed for public critical facilities, e.g. school buildings, offices, health care units, etc. The aim of the experimental study was to understand the damage mechanism of the model, develop damage scale towards deformation-based assessment and retrieve the lateral force-deformation response of the model besides its elastic dynamic properties, i.e. fundamental vibration period and elastic damping. The analytical study included fragility analysis of building prototypes using a fully probabilistic nonlinear dynamic method. The prototypes are designed as SDOF systems assigned with lateral, force-deformation constitutive law (obtained experimentally. Uncertainties in the constitutive law, i.e. lateral stiffness, strength and deformation limits, are considered through random Monte Carlo simulation. Fifty prototype buildings are analyzed using a suite of ten natural accelerograms and an incremental dynamic analysis technique. Fragility and vulnerability functions are derived for the damageability assessment of structures, economic loss and casualty estimation during an earthquake given the ground shaking intensity, essential within the context of risk assessment of existing stock aiming towards risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

  7. Methodology for the Seismic risk assessment in segments of fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The present study establishes the most adequate methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Iberian Peninsula, in particular for low seismicity areas, through a review of methods used in other countries and its application to a certain area in Spain. In this area the geological context and recent activity of a specific tectonic structure is studied in detail, in order to asses its slip rate, and therefore, its capability of generating earthquakes. In the first stage of this project a review of Seismic Hazard Assessment methods used outside Spain was carried out, as well as, a study of several spanish cases. This stage also comprises a review of the spanish seismic record and a study of the general peninsular neotectonic context, this latter to select a particular fault for the next stage. (Author) 117 refs

  8. Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

  9. Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate Change in Ekiti State, Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Results of the study indicated that the farming households in Ekiti State witnessed change in weather conditions as reflected in unusual downpour of rain thus ...

  10. Remote Sensing and GIS Assessment of Flood Vulnerability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lokoja, the Kogi state capital, is located at the Niger-Benue confluence. Hazards erupt when human activities in the confluence area are not properly managed. This article uses the Remote Sensing and GIS technique to assess the flood vulnerability zones of the town using the bench mark minimum and maximum water ...

  11. How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

    2017-12-01

    Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

  12. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

    2018-05-02

    Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus

  13. Validation of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.

    1994-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear plant requires identification and information regarding the seismic hazard at the plant site, dominant accident sequences leading to core damage, and structure and equipment fragilities. Uncertainties are associated with each of these ingredients of a PRA. Sources of uncertainty due to seismic hazard and assumptions underlying the component fragility modeling may be significant contributors to uncertainty in estimates of core damage probability. Design and construction errors also may be important in some instances. When these uncertainties are propagated through the PRA, the frequency distribution of core damage probability may span three orders of magnitude or more. This large variability brings into question the credibility of PRA methods and the usefulness of insights to be gained from a PRA. The sensitivity of accident sequence probabilities and high-confidence, low probability of failure (HCLPF) plant fragilities to seismic hazard and fragility modeling assumptions was examined for three nuclear power plants. Mean accident sequence probabilities were found to be relatively insensitive (by a factor of two or less) to: uncertainty in the coefficient of variation (logarithmic standard deviation) describing inherent randomness in component fragility; truncation of lower tail of fragility; uncertainty in random (non-seismic) equipment failures (e.g., diesel generators); correlation between component capacities; and functional form of fragility family. On the other hand, the accident sequence probabilities, expressed in the form of a frequency distribution, are affected significantly by the seismic hazard modeling, including slopes of seismic hazard curves and likelihoods assigned to those curves

  14. Worldwide Assessment of the Status of Seismic Zonation, Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation, Proceedings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, W.W.

    1994-01-01

    We are pleased to provide you with information developed for the Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation which will be convened in two locations year in conjunction two major international meetings. The objectives are: 1) to assess the status of seismic zonation in every country of the world, 2) to evaluate the reasons for advances and new initiatives, and 3) to foster continued cooperation. Seismic zonation is the process that leads to risk reduction and sustainability of new development. It is based on the division of a geographic region into smaller areas or zones on the basis of an integrated assessment of the hazard, built, and policy environments of the region. Seismic zonation depends on hazard mapping performed on national/regional, subregional, and urban (i.e., microzonation) scales depending on the particular application. We gratefully acknowledge the written communications of many professionals who responded to our request for information. Also, we acknowledge the use of information contained in five valuable reports (see directories in the Appendices for information on where to obtain copies of the reports): 1. United Nations, 1990, Cooperative Project for Seismic Risk Reduction in the Mediterranean Region (SEISMED), proceedings, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland, 3 vols. (Franco Maranzana -

  15. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  16. Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

    2016-04-01

    information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

  17. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  18. Developing new methodology for nuclear power plants vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, Venceslav

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented

  19. Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Seismic Damage for Buildings in Mid-America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Jong-Wha; Hueste, Mary Beth D.; Gardoni, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an approach to conduct a probabilistic assessment of structural damage due to seismic events with an application to typical building structures in Mid-America. The developed methodology includes modified damage state classifications based on the ATC-13 and ATC-38 damage states and the ATC-38 database of building damage. Damage factors are assigned to each damage state to quantify structural damage as a percentage of structural replacement cost. To account for the inherent uncertainties, these factors are expressed as random variables with a Beta distribution. A set of fragility curves, quantifying the structural vulnerability of a building, is mapped onto the developed methodology to determine the expected structural damage. The total structural damage factor for a given seismic intensity is then calculated using a probabilistic approach. Prediction and confidence bands are also constructed to account for the prevailing uncertainties. The expected seismic structural damage is assessed for a typical building structure in the Mid-America region using the developed methodology. The developed methodology provides a transparent procedure, where the structural damage factors can be updated as additional seismic damage data becomes available

  20. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti

    2016-01-01

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  1. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  2. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

  3. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  4. Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

  5. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  6. Seismic design of nuclear power plants - an assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, G.E.; Ibanez, P.; Smith, C.B.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a review and evaluation of the design standards and the analytical and experimental methods used in the seismic design of nuclear power plants with emphasis on United States practice. Three major areas were investigated: (a) soils, siting, and seismic ground motion specification; (b) soil-structure interaction; and (c) the response of major nuclear power plant structures and components. The purpose of this review and evaluation program was to prepare an independent assessment of the state-of-the-art of the seismic design of nuclear power plants and to identify seismic analysis and design research areas meriting support by the various organizations comprising the 'nuclear power industry'. Criteria used for evaluating the relative importance of alternative research areas included the potential research impact on nuclear power plant siting, design, construction, cost, safety, licensing, and regulation. (Auth.)

  7. Seismic hazard assessment of the Hanford region, Eastern Washington State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngs, R.R.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Power, M.S.; Swan, F.H. III

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was made for a site within the Hanford region of eastern Washington state, which is characterized as an intraplate region having a relatively low rate of seismic activity. Probabilistic procedures, such as logic trees, were utilized to account for the uncertainties in identifying and characterizing the potential seismic sources in the region. Logic trees provide a convenient, flexible means of assessing the values and relative likelihoods of input parameters to the hazard model that may be dependent upon each other. Uncertainties accounted for in this way include the tectonic model, segmentation, capability, fault geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, and earthquake recurrence rate. The computed hazard results are expressed as a distribution from which confidence levels are assessed. Analysis of the results show the contributions to the total hazard from various seismic sources and due to various earthquake magnitudes. In addition, the contributions of uncertainties in the various source parameters to the uncertainty in the computed hazard are assessed. For this study, the major contribution to uncertainty in the computed hazard are due to uncertainties in the applicable tectonic model and the earthquake recurrence rate. This analysis serves to illustrate some of the probabilistic tools that are available for conducting seismic hazard assessments and for analyzing the results of these studies. 5 references, 7 figures

  8. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  10. Seismic fragility analysis of a nuclear building based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and soil-structure interaction analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, R.; Ni, S.; Chen, R.; Han, X.M. [CANDU Energy Inc, Mississauga, Ontario (Canada); Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power, Point Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada)

    2016-09-15

    Seismic fragility analyses are conducted as part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (SPSA) for nuclear facilities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) has been undertaken for a nuclear power plant in eastern Canada. Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS), obtained from the PSHA, is characterized by high frequency content which differs from the original plant design basis earthquake spectral shape. Seismic fragility calculations for the service building of a CANDU 6 nuclear power plant suggests that the high frequency effects of the UHS can be mitigated through site response analysis with site specific geological conditions and state-of-the-art soil-structure interaction analysis. In this paper, it is shown that by performing a detailed seismic analysis using the latest technology, the conservatism embedded in the original seismic design can be quantified and the seismic capacity of the building in terms of High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) can be improved. (author)

  11. Historical seismicity in France. Its role in the assessment of seismic risk on French nuclear sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levret, A.

    1987-11-01

    Since 1975 in order to be in conformity with the requirements of the French nuclear program, a review of historical seismicity was undertaken in France. The assessment of seismic hazard for the safety of nuclear plants is in fact based upon a seismotectonic approach which needs to take into account the seismic activity over as long a period of time as possible. The method adopted for reviewing historical earthquakes entails a systematic consultation of the original sources and a critical analysis there of in the light of the historical, geographical and political contexts of the time. The same standards apply where the acquisition of new elements of information is involved. Each item of information is assigned a degree of reliability, then compiled in a computer file, up-dated annually; this file currently contains more than 4.500 events covering a period of time of about a millenary

  12. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.

  13. Dynamic vulnerability assessment and intelligent control for sustainable power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez-Longatt, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short-term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability as essment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protect...

  14. An assessment of fire vulnerability for aged electrical relays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vigil, R.A.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1995-03-01

    There has been some concern that, as nuclear power plants age, protective measures taken to control and minimize the impact of fire may become ineffective, or significantly less effective, and hence result in an increased fire risk. One objective of the Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Program is to assess the effects of aging and service wear on the fire vulnerability of electrical equipment. An increased fire vulnerability of components may lead to an overall increase in fire risk to the plant. Because of their widespread use in various electrical safety systems, electromechanical relays were chosen to be the initial components for evaluation. This test program assessed the impact of operational and thermal aging on the vulnerability of these relays to fire-induced damage. Only thermal effects of a fire were examined in this test program. The impact of smoke, corrosive materials, or fire suppression effects on relay performance were not addressed in this test program. The purpose of this test program was to assess whether the fire vulnerability of electrical relays increased with aging. The sequence followed for the test program was to: identify specific relay types, develop three fire scenarios, artificially age several relays, test the unaged and aged relays in the fire exposure scenarios, and compare the results. The relays tested were Agastat GPI, General Electric (GE) HMA, HGA, and HFA. At least two relays of each type were artificially aged and at least two relays of each type were new. Relays were operationally aged by cycling the relay under rated load for 2,000 operations. These relays were then thermally aged for 60 days with their coil energized

  15. Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

  16. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  17. Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in US power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.; Matthews, H.S.; Garrett, J.H.; Dodrill, K.; McSurdy, S. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering

    2009-09-15

    Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts of a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.

  18. Earthquake vulnerability assessment of buildings of ward no. 8 of Haldwani-Kathgodam Municipal Corporation, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bora, Kritika; Pande, Ravindra K.

    2017-07-01

    "Earthquake does not kill people; it is the building which kills people". Earthquake is a sudden event below the surface of the earth which results in vertical and horizontal waves that causes destruction. The main aim of this research is to bring into light the unplanned and non-engineered construction practices growing in the Urban areas. Lack of space and continuous migration from hills has resulted in Multistorey construction. The present study is based on primary data collection through Rapid Visual Screening for the assessment of vulnerability of buildings. "Haldwani-Kathgodam being a new Municipal Corporation located in the foot hills of Himalayas is facing same problem. The seismic zonation brings this area into zone 4 of damage risk. Therefore an assessment to estimate the risk of the built up environment is important. This paper presents a systematic and useful way of assessing physical vulnerability of buildings. The present paper will show how the growing pressure on urban area tends to make the built up environment vulnerable towards seismic activities. The challenge today is to make our living environment safe for living. The day by day growing population pressure on urban area as a migration trend in developing countries is leading to high rise building, no planning and reckless construction. For the sake of saving some money people usually do not take the approval from structural engineer. This unplanned and haphazard construction proves non-resistant towards earthquake and brings lives and properties to death and a stand still. The total no. of household in the current study area is 543 whereas the total population is 2497 (2011). The recent formation of Himalayas makes the area more sensitive towards seismic event. The closeness to the Main Boundary thrust brings it to zone 4 in the Seismic Zonation of India i.e., High Damage Risk Zone

  19. Seismic assessment of Technical Area V (TA-V).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medrano, Carlos S.

    2014-03-01

    The Technical Area V (TA-V) Seismic Assessment Report was commissioned as part of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Self Assessment Requirement per DOE O 414.1, Quality Assurance, for seismic impact on existing facilities at Technical Area-V (TA-V). SNL TA-V facilities are located on an existing Uniform Building Code (UBC) Seismic Zone IIB Site within the physical boundary of the Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB). The document delineates a summary of the existing facilities with their safety-significant structure, system and components, identifies DOE Guidance, conceptual framework, past assessments and the present Geological and Seismic conditions. Building upon the past information and the evolution of the new seismic design criteria, the document discusses the potential impact of the new standards and provides recommendations based upon the current International Building Code (IBC) per DOE O 420.1B, Facility Safety and DOE G 420.1-2, Guide for the Mitigation of Natural Phenomena Hazards for DOE Nuclear Facilities and Non-Nuclear Facilities.

  20. Seismic rupture study using near-source data: application to seismic hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, Bruno

    2000-01-01

    This work presents seismic source studies using near-field data. In accordance with the quality and the quantity of available data we developed and applied various methods to characterize the seismic source. Macro-seismic data are used to verify if simple and robust methods used on recent instrumental earthquakes may provide a good tool to calibrate historical events in France. These data are often used to characterize earthquakes to be taken into account for seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions. Geodetic data (SAR, GPS) are used to estimate the slip distribution on the fault during the 1992, Landers, California earthquake. These data are also used to precise the location and the geometry of the main events of the 1997, Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake sequence. Finally, the strong motions contain the most complete information about rupture process. These data are used to discriminate between two possible fault planes of the 1999, north India, Chamoli earthquake. The strong motions recorded close to the 1999, Mexico, Oaxaca earthquake are used to constrain the rupture history. Strong motions a.re also used in combination with geodetic data to access the rupture history of the Landers earthquake and the main events of the Colfiorito seismic sequence. For the Landers earthquake, the data quality and complementarity offered the possibility to describe the rupture development with accuracy. The large heterogeneities in both slip amplitude and rupture velocity variations suggest that the rupture propagates by breaking successive asperities rather than by propagating like a pulse at constant velocity. The rupture front slows as it encounters barriers and accelerates within main asperities. (author)

  1. An Assessment of the radiological vulnerability for Spanish soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueba, C.; Millan, R.; Schimid, T.; Lago, C.; Gutierrez, J.

    2000-01-01

    A methodology is presented to assess the radiological vulnerability of soils, based exclusively on their pedagogical properties. The radiological vulnerability defined as the potential capacity of soils to fix or transfer deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium to plants, is represented in terms of vulnerability indexes. Two pathways are considered, the external irradiation and their transfer through the food chain, where the top horizon and a critical depth of 60 cm is taken into account, respectively, Partial vulnerability indexes are considered for each pathway, which allows a qualitative prediction of the behaviour of the contaminants in soils Global indexes have been obtained as the sum of the partial indexes. The methodology has been applied and validated using a data base consisting of more than 2000 soil profiles selected from all over Spain. This included a pedagogical characterisation and normalisation of the different soil profiles. Results have been obtained for individual soil profiles and with the aid of a GIS, the distribution of the partial and global indexes have been presented for the most representative soil types. (Author)

  2. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  3. A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Shubhasis Dey; Ramdane Djoudad; Yaz Terajima

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors build on the framework used in the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review to assess the evolution of household indebtedness and financial vulnerabilities in response to changing economic conditions. To achieve this, they first compare two microdata sets generated by Ipsos Reid's Canadian Financial Monitor and Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security. They find that the surveys are broadly comparable, despite methodological differences. This enables them ...

  4. Dynamic Analytics-Driven Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Exploitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-15

    scans and other observations such as network traffic capture, to assess the severity of a vulnerability in terms of its specific impact to a 3...straightforward proposition. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of security tools and information technology systems that generate data useful for...during the data modeling process, a common taxonomy or data dictionary for the data elements of interest should be established. The data

  5. Harmonizing seismic hazard assessments for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallard, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    Even a cursory comparison between maps of global seismicity and NPP earthquake design levels reveals many inconsistencies. While, in part, this situation reflects the evolution in understanding of seismic hazards, mismatches can also be due to ongoing differences in the way the hazards are assessed and in local regulatory requirements. So far, formal international consensus has only been able to encompass broad principles, such as those recently recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and even these can raise many technical issues, particularly relating to zones of diffuse seismicity. In the future, greater harmonisation in hazard assessments and, to some extent, in earthquake design levels could emerge through the more widespread use of probabilistic methods. International collaborative ventures and joint projects will be important for resolving anomalies in the existing databases and their interpretations, and for acquiring new data, but to achieve their ideal objectives, they will need to proceed in clearly defined stages. (author)

  6. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

    Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

  7. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  8. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  9. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment to Pesticides and Their Ranking and Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Abrishamchi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the different methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment to pesticides contamination and their uncertainties were introduced. Then, the groundwater vulnerability of agricultural regions of Pasha-Kolaa dam (Mazandaran province to 7 pesticides has been assessed by the mobility potential indices in the typical conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC and the zonation maps of groundwater vulnerability in this region have been generated in the GIS environment.  According to the uncertainty of the pesticide properties and the lack of necessary data for uncertainty analysis in the region of study, the mobility potential indices in different scenarios of pesticide properties (worst and best conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC have been calculated, mapped and zoned. The zonation maps in three scenarios (best, typical and worst conditions of pesticide properties were compared. Next, according to the regional values of mobility potential indices, generated for different scenarios, the pesticides are ranked using the composite programming method. Finally, the pesticides are clustered to three groups (suitable, transitional and unsuitable by the combination of the results of previous sections. The clustering results showed that among of studied pesticides, 2,4 D Acid, Dimethoate and Fenvalerate are suitable ,and Metsulfuron and Triclopyr are unsuitable pesticides for region of study. The other pesticides showed transitional condition.

  10. Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

  11. Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, M.J.; Garcia fernandez, M. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifcas, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. of Earth Sciences; GSAHP Ibero-Maghreb Working Group

    1999-12-01

    The paper illustrates the contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map: for the first time, a map of regional hazard source zones is presented and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved.

  12. Seismic hazard assessment for the Caucasus test area

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Balassanian, S.; Ashirov, T.; Chelidze, T.; Gassanov, A.; Kondorskaya, N.; Molchan, G.; Pustovitenko, B.; Trifonov, V.; Ulomov, V.; Giardini, D.; Erdik, M.; Ghafory-Ashtiany, M.; Grunthal, G.; Mayer-Rosa, D.; Schenk, Vladimír; Stucchi, M.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 6 (1999), s. 1139-1151 ISSN 0365-2556 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  13. Geomorphology and seismic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizza, Mario

    1991-07-01

    The author analyses the contributions provided by geomorphology in studies suited to the assessment of seismic risk: this is defined as function of the seismic hazard, of the seismic susceptibility, and of the vulnerability. The geomorphological studies applicable to seismic risk assessment can be divided into two sectors: (a) morpho-neotectonic investigations conducted to identify active tectonic structures; (b) geomorphological and morphometric analyses aimed at identifying the particular situations that amplify or reduce seismic susceptibility. The morpho-neotectonic studies lead to the identification, selection and classification of the lineaments that can be linked with active tectonic structures. The most important geomorphological situations that can condition seismic susceptibility are: slope angle, debris, morphology, degradational slopes, paleo-landslides and underground cavities.

  14. Development of Seismic Safety Assessment Technology for Containment Structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, J.B.; Suh, Y.P.; Lee, J.R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    2002-07-01

    This final report is made based on the research results of seismic analysis and seismic margin assessment field, carried out during 3rd stage ('01.4.1{approx}'02.3.31) under financial support of MOST(Ministry of Science and Technology). The objective of this research is to develop the soil - structure interaction analysis technique with high reliability, the main research subjects, performed during 3rd stage are as follows. 1) Preparation of user's guide manual for SSI analysis with high accuracy. 2) Sensitivity analysis of effective shear strain and seismic input motion. 3) Database construction of Hualien earthquake recorded data. (author). 21 refs., 27 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  16. Seismic assessment of Kozloduy WWER-440, model 230 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, P.; Baltus, R.; Yanev, P.; Campbell, R.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary report is given of the findings of an IAEA sponsored walkdown of the WWER-440, model 230 at Kozloduy, in May 1991. The scope of the IAEA mission was to determine the lower bound seismic capacity of the plant and to make recommendations for improvements to increase the earthquake resistance. The methodology utilized in the assessment is that used for evaluation of the seismic margin in U.S. nuclear power plants subjected to earthquakes beyond their design basis. Included in the assessment is the establishment of a safe shutdown path which would include the capacity to mitigate a small break in the primary system, performance of a walkdown of the safe shutdown path and calculation of the high-confidence-of-low-probability-of-failure (HCLPF) of the safe shutdown path. Excluding system design deficiency relative to U.S. and Western Europe standards, it was found that the plant has many seismic vulnerabilities similar to those that existed in many of the U.S. plants prior to about 1979 when the Systematic Evaluation Program was initiated. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig

  17. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  18. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  19. VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

  20. Assessing seismic adequacy of existing nuclear power plant structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyaev, V.; Vinogradov, V.; Privalov, S.; Shishenin, V.

    2003-01-01

    Nowadays Russia's specialists perform a huge amount of works to revaluate the NPP safety. These works are certain to include refinement of NPP safety assessment under the effects of specific dynamic loads, earthquake effects included. It should be noted, that a number of Russian NPPs now in operation had been designed either with no account of these loads, or under the requirements which are underestimated as compared with the modern requirements on the external load composition and rate. Revaluation of NPP seismic safety is based on the results of the works taken under orderly sequence on assessment of (1) seismic input and ground effects; (2) structure response and state; (3) equipment and pipelines response and state. The paper considers the methods of NPP structures response and state assessment. Therewith we assume that ground motion predicted behavior at the construction basement has been preset for the SSE and OBE conditions and the effects of soil-structure interaction, including the situation of possible soft soil liquefaction. Necessity to determine both the reaction of a construction and its state as a whole as well as its elements reaction, to evaluate their bearing capacity and destruction zones formation makes it necessary to make up a detailed structural model, which is usually a finite element one. Since seismic revaluation is to be performed for the existing structures, characteristics of which can substantially differ from the design ones, revealing the actual state of this structures becomes critical. If the real values of physical and mechanical properties of the structure materials, connections of elements etc. are used as initial data in a structural model this permits to increase the design assessment credibility and reliability substantially. The paper analyzes the results of determining these initial assessments while inspecting several Russian NPPs on the basis of a 'combined' method. This method is realized at two consecutive stages. The

  1. Seismic risk assessment of Trani's Cathedral bell tower in Apulia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaferio, Mariella; Foti, Dora

    2017-09-01

    The present paper deals with the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of slender historical buildings; these structures, in fact, may manifest a high risk with respect to seismic actions as usually they have been designed to resist to gravitational loads only, and are characterized by a high flexibility. To evaluate this behavior, the bell tower of the Trani's Cathedral is investigated. The tower is 57 m tall and is characterized by an unusual building typology, i.e., the walls are composed of a concrete core coupled with external masonry stones. The dynamic parameters and the mechanical properties of the tower have been evaluated on the basis of an extensive experimental campaign that made use of ambient vibration tests and ground penetrating radar tests. Such data have been utilized to calibrate a numerical model of the examined tower. A linear static analysis, a dynamic analysis and a nonlinear static analysis have been carried out on such model to evaluate the displacement capacity of the tower and the seismic risk assessment in accordance with the Italian guidelines.

  2. An investigation on vulnerability assessment of steel structures with thin steel shear wall through development of fragility curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Gerami

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Fragility curves play an important role in damage assessment of buildings. Probability of damage induction to the structure against seismic events can be investigated upon generation of afore mentioned curves. In current research 360 time history analyses have been carried out on structures of 3, 10 and 20 story height and subsequently fragility curves have been adopted. The curves are developed based on two indices of inter story drifts and equivalent strip axial strains of the shear wall. Time history analysis is carried out in Perform 3d considering 10 far field seismograms and 10 near fields. Analysis of low height structures revealed that they are more vulnerable in accelerations lower than 0.8 g in near field earthquakes because of higher mode effects. Upon the generated fragility curves it was observed that middle and high structures have more acceptable performance and lower damage levels compared to low height structures in both near and far field seismic hazards.

  3. A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical

  4. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9460-8; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-0485] Vulnerability... titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

  5. Analysis of the impact of large scale seismic retrofitting strategies through the application of a vulnerability-based approach on traditional masonry buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Tiago Miguel; Maio, Rui; Vicente, Romeu

    2017-04-01

    The buildings' capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fundamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popular retrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.

  6. Seismic performance assessment of three masonry churches through FE simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Gabriele; Shehu, Rafael; Valente, Marco

    2017-07-01

    The paper presents some seismic analyses on three masonry churches located in Emilia-Romagna (Italy), recently stricken by a devastating earthquake sequence from 20th to 29th May 2012. These churches have a similar geometrical configuration, consisting of three naves, a central colonnade and a simple apse. Limit analyses are conducted on the most important macro-elements of the structure and a full investigation of the churches is carried out by means of the commercial FE Code SAP2000, in both linear and non-linear ranges. Two accelerograms are considered: one is defined in accordance with Italian code response spectrum and the other is based on a natural record of the 29th May earthquake. For both scenarios, the seismic behaviour of the churches is analysed in detail and some vulnerability considerations are drawn. A remarkable consistency is found between limit analyses of macro-elements and response spectrum analyses, whilst some discrepancies can be noted for non-linear dynamic analyses. The results put in evidence the insufficient strength of the apses for shear actions, the columns of the naves for bending moments, the façade for overturning and the triumphal arch for the formation of an in-plane four hinges mechanism.

  7. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  8. Multi-hazards coastal vulnerability assessment of Goa, India, using geospatial techniques.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kunte, P.D.; Jauhari, N.; Mehrotra, U.; Kotha, M.; Hursthouse, A.S.; Gagnon, A.S.

    that are the most and least vulnerable to erosion, flooding and inundation of coastal lands, and that the inclusion of socio-economic parameters influences the overall assessment of vulnerability. This study provides information aimed at increasing awareness amongst...

  9. Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Liu; Ouyang, Min; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Yan, Yongze

    2015-01-01

    The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. - Highlights: • We propose a methodology to assess flood-induced railway system vulnerability. • Railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption. • Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly vulnerability in July. • We propose an effective maintenance strategy considering link vulnerability and burden

  10. Red Team Operations to Assess Information Technology Vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltman, M.; Parker, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    All Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems have vulnerabilities. Weaknesses in these systems are introduced either during the specification, implementation or operational phase. Leaving aside these introduced vulnerabilities are intentional or unintentional, the fact remains that

  11. Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be

  12. Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

  13. Seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Luco, Nicholas; Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2012-01-01

    We present the results of a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The Mariana island arc has formed in response to northwestward subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine Sea plate, and this process controls seismic activity in the region. Historical seismicity, the Mariana megathrust, and two crustal faults on Guam were modeled as seismic sources, and ground motions were estimated by using published relations for a firm-rock site condition. Maps of peak ground acceleration, 0.2-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping were computed for exceedance probabilities of 2 percent and 10 percent in 50 years. For 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.94 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.57 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 2.86 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 1.75 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.61 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.37 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. For 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.49 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.29 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 1.43 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.83 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.30 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.18 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. The dominant hazard source at the islands is upper Benioff-zone seismicity (depth 40–160 kilometers). The large probabilistic ground motions reflect the strong concentrations of this activity below the arc, especially near Guam.

  14. Cracking pattern and seismic performance assessment of the Orvieto cathedral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Canio, G.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper are described the in situ cracking pattern measurement and ambient vibration monitoring for the seismic performance evaluation of the Orvieto Cathedral Italy, according the deplacement based safety assessment. This requires, as a first step, the direct measurement of the cracking pattern and dynamic response of the structural macro elements of the cathedral due to weak vibrations induced by traffic and seismic micro tremors. Seismic assessment for this type of structure require also the proper limit states definitions. In fact, in the case historic monuments like churches, due to the presence of specific typology of macro elements: rigid blocks, complex vault systems, slenderness of the walls, presence of wide halls, domes and drums with particular geometry, is necessary to define the proper assessment procedures which are slightly different with respect those required for conventional civil industrial buildings. Regarding the Ambient vibration monitoring, a new approach to estimate the participating masses associated to the macro element kinematics is defined: it is based on the frequency contribution to the Root Main Square Acceleration, obtained by numerical integration of the Power Spectral Density (PSD) function. This information, when associated to the analysis of the Real and Imaginary part of the Cross Spectral Density (CSD) function between the acceleration time histories at different points, allow to identify the principal (at least first and second) mode shapes of the structure.

  15. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  16. Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

    OpenAIRE

    Hashemi, M.; Alesheikh, A. A.

    2012-01-01

    Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-s...

  17. A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatial Analysis of Vulnerability of China’s Provincial Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongqiang Ren

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability theory is a fundamental scientific knowledge system in sustainable development, and vulnerability assessment is important in vulnerability studies. Economic vulnerability affects economic growth sustainability. Comprehensive assessment of economic vulnerability in the process of economic growth under the theoretical framework of vulnerability will provide a new perspective for vulnerability studies. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram assessment model, this study selected 22 economic sensitivity indexes and 25 economic adaptability indexes from the economic, social, and nature–resource–environmental subsystems to comprehensively assess and spatially analyse the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies since the year 2000, while applying the entropy method, multilevel extension assessment, spatial measurement method, and geographic information system technology. The results showed the following: (1 There are great differences in the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies. Western China’s vulnerability is higher and the fluctuation range of economic vulnerability is larger. The vulnerability increased significantly based on spatial differential features; (2 Regional differences in economic vulnerability, mainly caused by differences within a region, increased gradually. Eastern and Western China showed the spatial pattern characteristics of prominent and reinforcing regional imbalance, while Central and Northeast China showed declining regional imbalance. The spatial structure evolution of economic vulnerability is characterized by a volatility curve, and regional separation and divergence are strengthened; (3 Growth of China’s provincial economies and economic vulnerability are related negatively. In Eastern, Central, and Northeast China, vulnerability of the provincial economies has a negative spillover effect on neighbouring provinces’ economic growth, while in Western China it has a slight positive

  18. Masonry Infilling Effect On Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of High Ductility RC Frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghalehnovi, M.; Shahraki, H.

    2008-01-01

    In last years researchers preferred behavior-based design of structure to force-based one for designing and construction of the earthquake-resistance structures, this method is named performance based designing. The main goal of this method is designing of structure members for a certain performance or behavior. On the other hand in most of buildings, load bearing frames are infilled with masonry materials which leads to considerable changes in mechanical properties of frames. But usually infilling wall's effect has been ignored in nonlinear analysis of structures because of complication of the problem and lack of simple logical solution. As a result lateral stiffness, strength, ductility and performance of the structure will be computed with less accuracy. In this paper by use of Smooth hysteretic model for masonry infillings, some high ductile RC frames (4, 8 stories including 1, 2 and 3 spans) designed according to Iranian code are considered. They have been analyzed by nonlinear dynamic method in two states, with and without infilling. Then their performance has been determined with criteria of ATC 40 and compared with recommended performance in Iranian seismic code (standard No. 2800)

  19. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Focus on CSIR research in water resources: improved methods for aquifer vulnerability assessments and protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Colvin, C

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessments and Protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils Groundwater resources are increas- ingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved... characteristics. Both intrinsic and specific vulnerability are taken into account. The approach used to determine the vulnerability of the in- termediate zone involved the descrip- tion and quantification of the factors that influence vulnerability (unsatu...

  1. Level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment for a PWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Keisuke; Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ichitsuka, Akihiro

    2014-01-01

    In Japan, revised Seismic Design Guidelines for the domestic light water reactors was published on September 19, 2006. These new guidelines have introduced the purpose to confirm that residual risk resulting from earthquake that exceeds the design limit seismic ground motion (Ss) is sufficiently small, based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method, in addition to conventional deterministic design base methodology. In response to this situation, JNES had been working to improve seismic PRA (SPRA) models for individual domestic light water reactors. In case of PWR in Japan, total of 24 plants were grouped into 11 categories to develop individual SPRA model. The new regulatory rules against the Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants' severe accidents occurred on March 11, 2011, are going to be enforced in July 2013 and utilities are necessary to implement additional safety measures to avoid and mitigate severe accident occurrence due to external events such as earthquake and tsunami, by referring to the results of severe accident study including SPRA. In this paper a SPRA model development for a domestic 3-loop PWR plant as part of the above-mentioned 11 categories is described. We paid special attention to how to categorize initiating events that are specific to seismic phenomena and how to confirm the effect of the simultaneous failure probability calculation model for the multiple components on the result of core damage frequency evaluation. Simultaneous failure probability for multiple components has been evaluated by power multiplier method. Then tentative level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been performed by the developed SPSA model with seismic hazard and fragility data. The base case was evaluated under the condition with calculated fragility data and conventional power multiplier. The difference in CDF between the case of conventional power multiplier and that of power multiplier=1 (complete dependence) was estimated to be

  2. National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

  3. On the importance of uncertain factors in seismic fragility assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Zentner, I.; Pellegri, A.; Tarantola, S.; Rocquigny, E. de

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the definition of importance measures for helping the modeller to detect the factors on which to focus modelling activity and data collection in seismic fragility analysis. We study sensitivity measures consistent with the decision-support criteria of interest, namely, the (mean) fragility curve and the “High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure” (HCLPF) value. The importance measures are obtained analytically for the EPRI safety factor method, which is nowadays used worldwide for seismic risk assessment of nuclear plants. We illustrate and discuss the use of both variance-based and CDF-based importance measures in the application to two case studies, the first analytical and based on the EPRI method, the second numerical.

  4. Assessment of bullet effectiveness based on a human vulnerability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Susu; Xu, C; Wen, Y; Li, G; Zhou, J

    2017-12-25

    Penetrating wounds from explosively propelled fragments and bullets are the most common causes of combat injury. There is a requirement to assess the potential effectiveness of bullets penetrating human tissues in order to optimise preventive measures and wound trauma management. An advanced voxel model based on the Chinese Visible Human data was built. A digital human vulnerability model was established in combination with wound reconstruction and vulnerability assessment rules, in which wound penetration profiles were obtained by recreating the penetration of projectiles into ballistic gelatin. An effectiveness evaluation method of bullet penetration using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was developed and solved using the Monte Carlo sampling method. The effectiveness of rifle bullets was demonstrated to increase with increasing velocity in the range of 300-700 m/s. When imparting the same energy, the effectiveness of the 5.56 mm bullet was higher than the 7.62 mm bullet in this model. The superimposition of simulant penetration profiles produced from ballistic gelatin simulant has been used to predict wound tracts in damaged tissues. The authors recognise that determining clinical effectiveness based on the AIS scores alone without verification of outcome by review of clinical hospital records means that this technique should be seen more as a manner of comparing the effectiveness of bullets than an injury prediction model. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  5. Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Accounting for Human Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2014-12-01

    Reservoirs are one of the main infrastructures that provide resilience against extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) and they play a key role in water resources management. Based on International Commission of Large Dams (ICOLD 2003) records, the total volume of reservoirs is over 6200 km3, which is twice larger than the global annual water use estimated as 3000 km3. Just a simple comparison of the two numbers indicates the importance of reservoirs and their role in providing resilience for water security. On the other hand, man-made reservoirs change the water distribution throughout the year. Most climate change impact studies ignore the role of reservoirs in water availability studies. However, water availability cannot be properly assessed without a thorough assessment of reservoir conditions. By combining classical methods for climate variability assessment (top-down approach) and influence assessment (bottom-up approach), this study offers a hybrid framework that integrates different drivers of water storage vulnerability. Final index is termed as the Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). This index investigates the adaptive capacity of the reservoir and exposure of the system to variable conditions. MSRRI has been investigated over several major reservoirs in Australia and California, United States. This presentation reviews recent findings and discusses reservoir conditions in Australia and California using MSRRI under different climatic change scenarios.

  6. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  7. Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessandro, Antonino; Luzio, Dario; D'Anna, Giuseppe

    2014-05-01

    Life losses following disastrous earthquake depends mainly by the building vulnerability, intensity of shaking and timeliness of rescue operations. In recent decades, the increase in population and industrial density has significantly increased the exposure to earthquakes of urban areas. The potential impact of a strong earthquake on a town center can be reduced by timely and correct actions of the emergency management centers. A real time urban seismic network can drastically reduce casualties immediately following a strong earthquake, by timely providing information about the distribution of the ground shaking level. Emergency management centers, with functions in the immediate post-earthquake period, could be use this information to allocate and prioritize resources to minimize loss of human life. However, due to the high charges of the seismological instrumentation, the realization of an urban seismic network, which may allow reducing the rate of fatalities, has not been achieved. Recent technological developments in MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems) technology could allow today the realization of a high-density urban seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment, suitable for the earthquake effects mitigation. In the 1990s, MEMS accelerometers revolutionized the automotive-airbag system industry and are today widely used in laptops, games controllers and mobile phones. Due to their great commercial successes, the research into and development of MEMS accelerometers are actively pursued around the world. Nowadays, the sensitivity and dynamics of these sensors are such to allow accurate recording of earthquakes with moderate to strong magnitude. Due to their low cost and small size, the MEMS accelerometers may be employed for the realization of high-density seismic networks. The MEMS accelerometers could be installed inside sensitive places (high vulnerability and exposure), such as schools, hospitals, public buildings and places of

  8. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  9. Risk assessment to determine the advisability of seismic trip systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Wells, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic trip (scram) systems have been used for many years on certain research, test, and production reactors, but not on commercial power reactors. An assessment is made of the risks associated with the presence and absence of such trip systems on power reactors. An attempt was made to go beyond the reactor per se and to consider the risks to society as a whole; for example, the advantages of tripping to avoid an earthquake-caused accident were weighed against the disadvantages associated with interrupting electric power in a time when it would be needed for emergency services. The comparative risk assessment was performed by means of fault tree analysis

  10. Seismic assessment of a multi-span steel railway bridge in Turkey based on nonlinear time history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yılmaz, Mehmet F.; Çağlayan, Barlas Ö.

    2018-01-01

    Many research studies have shown that bridges are vulnerable to earthquakes, graphically confirmed by incidents such as the San Fernando (1971 USA), Northridge (1994 USA), Great Hanshin (1995 Japan), and Chi-Chi (1999 Taiwan) earthquakes, amongst many others. The studies show that fragility curves are useful tools for bridge seismic risk assessments, which can be generated empirically or analytically. Empirical fragility curves can be generated where damage reports from past earthquakes are available, but otherwise, analytical fragility curves can be generated from structural seismic response analysis. Earthquake damage data in Turkey are very limited, hence this study employed an analytical method to generate fragility curves for the Alasehir bridge. The Alasehir bridge is part of the Manisa-Uşak-Dumlupınar-Afyon railway line, which is very important for human and freight transportation, and since most of the country is seismically active, it is essential to assess the bridge's vulnerability. The bridge consists of six 30 m truss spans with a total span 189 m supported by 2 abutments and 5 truss piers, 12.5, 19, 26, 33, and 40 m. Sap2000 software was used to model the Alasehir bridge, which was refined using field measurements, and the effect of 60 selected real earthquake data analyzed using the refined model, considering material and geometry nonlinearity. Thus, the seismic behavior of Alasehir railway bridge was determined and truss pier reaction and displacements were used to determine its seismic performance. Different intensity measures were compared for efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency and their component and system fragility curves derived.

  11. Seismic assessment of a multi-span steel railway bridge in Turkey based on nonlinear time history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Yılmaz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many research studies have shown that bridges are vulnerable to earthquakes, graphically confirmed by incidents such as the San Fernando (1971 USA, Northridge (1994 USA, Great Hanshin (1995 Japan, and Chi-Chi (1999 Taiwan earthquakes, amongst many others. The studies show that fragility curves are useful tools for bridge seismic risk assessments, which can be generated empirically or analytically. Empirical fragility curves can be generated where damage reports from past earthquakes are available, but otherwise, analytical fragility curves can be generated from structural seismic response analysis. Earthquake damage data in Turkey are very limited, hence this study employed an analytical method to generate fragility curves for the Alasehir bridge. The Alasehir bridge is part of the Manisa–Uşak–Dumlupınar–Afyon railway line, which is very important for human and freight transportation, and since most of the country is seismically active, it is essential to assess the bridge's vulnerability. The bridge consists of six 30 m truss spans with a total span 189 m supported by 2 abutments and 5 truss piers, 12.5, 19, 26, 33, and 40 m. Sap2000 software was used to model the Alasehir bridge, which was refined using field measurements, and the effect of 60 selected real earthquake data analyzed using the refined model, considering material and geometry nonlinearity. Thus, the seismic behavior of Alasehir railway bridge was determined and truss pier reaction and displacements were used to determine its seismic performance. Different intensity measures were compared for efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency and their component and system fragility curves derived.

  12. Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

  13. EARTHQUAKE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR HOSPITAL BUILDINGS USING A GIS-BASED GROUP MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING APPROACH: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Delavar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert’s judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

  14. Seismic safety margin assessment program (Annual safety research report, JFY 2010)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Kenichi; Iijima, Toru; Inagaki, Masakatsu; Taoka, Hideto; Hidaka, Shinjiro

    2011-01-01

    Seismic capacity test data, analysis method and evaluation code provided by Seismic Safety Margin Assessment Program have been utilized for the support of seismic back-check evaluation of existing plants. The summary of the program in 2010 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. Many seismic capacity tests of various snubbers were conducted and quantitative seismic capacities were evaluated. One of the emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests was conducted and quantitative seismic capacity was evaluated. Some of the analytical evaluations of piping-system seismic capacities were conducted. 2. Analysis method for minute evaluation of component seismic response. The difference of seismic response of large components such as primary containment vessel and reactor pressure vessel when they were coupled with 3-dimensional FEM building model or 1-dimensional lumped mass building model, was quantitatively evaluated. 3. Evaluation code for quantitative evaluation of seismic safety margin of systems, structures and components. As the example, quantitative evaluation of seismic safety margin of systems, structures and components were conducted for the reference plant. (author)

  15. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-06-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  16. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Zobin

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  17. Seismic assessment of ancient masonry buildings : shaking table tests and numerical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mendes, N.

    2012-01-01

    Tese de doutoramento em Estruturas - Engenharia Civil Ancient masonry buildings were built for many centuries taking into account only vertical static loads, without reference to any particular seismic code. The different types of masonry present common features that are directly related to the high seismic vulnerability of this type of buildings, such as the high specific mass, the low tensile strength, low to moderate shear strength and low ductility (brittle behaviour). Besi...

  18. Seismic reliability assessment methodology for CANDU concrete containment structures-phase 11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, H.P.

    1996-07-01

    This study was undertaken to verify a set of load factors for reliability-based seismic evaluation of CANDU containment structures in Eastern Canada. Here, the new, site-specific, results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (response spectral velocity) were applied. It was found that the previously recommended load factors are relatively insensitive to the new seismic hazard information, and are adequate for a reliability-based seismic evaluation process. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 9 figs

  19. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

  20. Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

    2013-04-01

    GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

  1. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Tarkwa Mining Area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important issue. This study estimates aquifer vulnerability by applying the SINTACS model which uses seven environmental parameters to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and geographical information system (GIS) in the Tarkwa mining ...

  2. Preliminary seismic design cost-benefit assessment of the tuff repository waste-handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, C.V.; Abrahamson, N.; Hadjian, A.H.

    1989-02-01

    This report presents a preliminary assessment of the costs and benefits associated with changes in the seismic design basis of waste-handling facilities. The objectives of the study are to understand the capability of the current seismic design of the waste-handling facilities to mitigate seismic hazards, evaluate how different design levels and design measures might be used toward mitigating seismic hazards, assess the costs and benefits of alternative seismic design levels, and develop recommendations for possible modifications to the seismic design basis. This preliminary assessment is based primarily on expert judgment solicited in an interdisciplinary workshop environment. The estimated costs for individual attributes and the assumptions underlying these cost estimates (seismic hazard levels, fragilities, radioactive-release scenarios, etc.) are subject to large uncertainties, which are generally identified but not treated explicitly in this preliminary analysis. The major conclusions of the report do not appear to be very sensitive to these uncertainties. 41 refs., 51 figs., 35 tabs

  3. Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

  4. An under-designed RC frame: Seismic assessment through displacement based approach and possible refurbishment with FRP strips and RC jacketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Marco; Milani, Gabriele

    2017-07-01

    Many existing reinforced concrete buildings in Southern Europe were built (and hence designed) before the introduction of displacement based design in national seismic codes. They are obviously highly vulnerable to seismic actions. In such a situation, simplified methodologies for the seismic assessment and retrofitting of existing structures are required. In this study, a displacement based procedure using non-linear static analyses is applied to a four-story existing RC frame. The aim is to obtain an estimation of its overall structural inadequacy as well as the effectiveness of a specific retrofitting intervention by means of GFRP laminates and RC jacketing. Accurate numerical models are developed within a displacement based approach to reproduce the seismic response of the RC frame in the original configuration and after strengthening.

  5. Seismic assessment of air-cooled type emergency electric power supply system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    JNES initiated seismic assessment programs to develop seismic review criterions for the air-cooled system (diesel generator, gas turbine generator), which will be newly installed for enhancing the diversity of emergency electric power supply system. Five principal subjects are involved in the programs: two subjects for fiscal 2011 and three ones for fiscal 2012 and 2013. The summary of outcomes is as follows: 1) Past capacity test data and related technical issues (2011). Seismic capacity data obtained from past seismic shaking tests were investigated. 2) Test programs based on the investigation of system specification (2011). Design specifications for the air-cooled system were investigated. 3) Large Air Fin Cooler (AFC) one unit model seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. AFC one unit model seismic capacity tests were conducted and quantitative seismic capacities were evaluated. (author)

  6. Seismic assessment of air-cooled type emergency electric power supply system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    JNES initiated seismic assessment programs to develop seismic review criterions for the air-cooled system (diesel generator, gas turbine generator), which will be newly installed for enhancing the diversity of emergency electric power supply system. Five principal subjects are involved in the programs: two subjects for fiscal 2011 and three ones for fiscal 2012 and 2013. The summary of outcomes is as follows: 1) Past capacity test data and related technical issues (2011). Seismic capacity data obtained from past seismic shaking tests were investigated. 2) Test programs based on the investigation of system specification (2011). Design specifications for the air-cooled system were investigated. 3) Large Air Fin Cooler (AFC) one unit model seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. AFC one unit model seismic capacity tests were conducted and quantitative seismic capacities were evaluated. (author)

  7. Seismic reliability assessment methodology for CANDU concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephens, M.J.; Nessim, M.A.; Hong, H.P.

    1995-05-01

    A study was undertaken to develop a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of existing CANDU concrete containment structures with respect to seismic loading. The focus of the study was on defining appropriate specified values and partial safety factors for earthquake loading and resistance parameters. Key issues addressed in the work were the identification of an approach to select design earthquake spectra that satisfy consistent safety levels, and the use of structure-specific data in the evaluation of structural resistance. (author). 23 refs., 9 tabs., 15 figs

  8. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  9. Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranagalage, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

  10. Department of Energy, highly enriched uranium ES ampersand H vulnerability assessment, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory site assessment team report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    In accordance with the February 22, 1996 directive issued by Secretary of Energy O'Leary on the Vulnerability Assessment of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Storage, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory conducted an assessment of the site's HEU holdings and any associated vulnerabilities. The assessment was conducted between April 25 and May 24, 1996. The scope of this assessment, as defined in the Assessment Plan, included all HEU, and any spent fuel not evaluated in the Spent Fuel Vulnerability Assessment. Addressed in this assessment were all of the holdings at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) except any located at Argonne National Laboratory-West (ANL-W) and the Naval Reactors Facility. Excluded from the assessment were those HEU holdings previously assessed in the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventory and Vulnerability Site Assessment Report and any HEU holdings evaluated in the Plutonium Vulnerability Assessment Report

  11. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  12. Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnansounou, Edgard

    2008-01-01

    The emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable well-being of the mankind. High volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition. Voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources, to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement. In this paper, a composite index of energy demand/supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability. The proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity, oil and gas import dependency, CO 2 content of primary energy supply, electricity supply weaknesses and non-diversity in transport fuels. The assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors

  13. Modeling the Connectedness Between best Management Practices and Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.

    2015-12-01

    The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the

  14. Seismic component fragility data base for IPEEE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.

    1990-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment or a seismic margin study will require a reliable data base of seismic fragility of various equipment classes. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has selected a group of equipment and generically evaluated the seismic fragility of each equipment class by use of existing test data. This paper briefly discusses the evaluation methodology and the fragility results. The fragility analysis results when used in the Individual Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE) Program for nuclear power plants are expected to provide insights into seismic vulnerabilities of equipment for earthquakes beyond the design basis. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  15. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

    2008-09-01

    Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

  16. ASSESSMENT OF SEISMIC ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES FOR DEEPLY EMBEDDED NPP STRUCTURES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    XU, J.; MILLER, C.; COSTANTINO, C.; HOFMAYER, C.; GRAVES, H. NRC.

    2005-01-01

    Several of the new generation nuclear power plant designs have structural configurations which are proposed to be deeply embedded. Since current seismic analysis methodologies have been applied to shallow embedded structures (e.g., ASCE 4 suggest that simple formulations may be used to model embedment effect when the depth of embedment is less than 30% of its foundation radius), the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a program at the Brookhaven National Laboratory with the objective of investigating the extent to which procedures acceptable for shallow embedment depths are adequate for larger embedment depths. This paper presents the results of a study comparing the response spectra obtained from two of the more popular analysis methods for structural configurations varying from shallow embedment to complete embedment. A typical safety related structure embedded in a soil profile representative of a typical nuclear power plant site was utilized in the study and the depths of burial (DOB) considered range from 25-100% the height of the structure. Included in the paper are: (1) the description of a simplified analysis and a detailed approach for the SSI analyses of a structure with various DOB, (2) the comparison of the analysis results for the different DOBs between the two methods, and (3) the performance assessment of the analysis methodologies for SSI analyses of deeply embedded structures. The resulting assessment from this study has indicated that simplified methods may be capable of capturing the seismic response for much deeper embedded structures than would be normally allowed by the standard practice

  17. The seismic assessment of fast reactor cores in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duthie, J.C.; Dostal, M.

    1988-01-01

    The design of the UK Commercial Demonstration Fast Reactor (CDFR) has evolved over a number of years. The design has to meet two seismic requirements: (i) the reactor must cause no hazard to the public during or after the Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE); (ii) there must be no sudden reduction in safety for an earthquake exceeding the SSE. The core is a complicated component in the whole reactor. It is usually represented in a very simplified manner in the seismic assessment of the whole reactor station. From this calculation, a time history or response spectrum can be generated for the diagrid, which supports the core, and for the above core structure, which supports the main absorber rods. These data may then be used to perform a detailed assessment of the reactor core. A new simplified model of the core response may then be made and used in a further calculation of the whole reactor. The calculation of the core response only, is considered in the remainder of this paper. One important feature of the fast reactor core, compared with other reactors, is that the components are relatively thin and flexible to promote neutron economy and heat transfer. A further important feature is that there are very small gaps between the wrapper tubes. This leads to very strong fluid-coupling effects. These effects are likely to be beneficial, but adequate techniques to calculate them are only just being developed. 9 refs, figs

  18. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  19. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  20. Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...

  1. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  2. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

  3. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  4. Savannah River Site management response plan for chemical safety vulnerability field assessment. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahal, E.J.; Murphy, S.L.; Salaymeh, S.R.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) initiative to identify potential chemical safety vulnerabilities in the DOE complex, the Chemical Safety Vulnerability Core Working Group issued a field verification assessment report. While the report concluded that Savannah River Site (SRS) is moving in a positive direction, the report also identified five chemical safety vulnerabilities with broad programmatic impact that are not easily nor quickly remedied. The May 1994 SRS Management Response Plan addressed the five SRS vulnerabilities identified in the field assessment report. The SRS response plan listed observations supporting the vulnerabilities and any actions taken or planned toward resolution. Many of the observations were resolved by simple explanations, such as the existence of implementation plans for Safety Analysis Report updates. Recognizing that correcting individual observations does not suffice in remedying the vulnerabilities, a task team was assembled to address the broader programmatic issues and to recommend corrective actions

  5. Environmental Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Urban Water Mines (Porto, NW Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Afonso

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach was developed to estimate urban groundwater vulnerability to contamination combining hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, subterranean hydrogeotechnics, groundwater ecotoxicology and isotope tracers. Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters in Porto City were used as a case study. Historical and current vulnerability scenarios were compared using hydrogeological GIS-based modelling. Potential contamination sources were mapped around the spring galleries. Most of these were point sources and their potential contamination load was moderate. The ecotoxicological assessment indicated a low acute toxicity potential. Groundwater radionuclides appeared to be mainly controlled by geological factors and biomineralisation. Vulnerability maps suggest that most of the area has a moderate to low vulnerability to contamination. However, some surface sources such as sewage systems cause contamination and contribute to increased vulnerability. This integrated approach was demonstrated to be adequate for a better knowledge of urban hydrogeological processes and their dynamics, and highlighted the importance of a vulnerability assessment in urban areas.

  6. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  7. Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hollenstein

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.

  8. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  9. Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cannizzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

  10. Applying spatial clustering analysis to a township-level social vulnerability assessment in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yen Lin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.

  11. The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

    2008-01-01

    People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  12. Recent achievements of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in the CEI region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Vaccari, F.; Kouteva, M.

    2008-03-01

    A review of the recent achievements of the innovative neo-deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment through realistic earthquake scenarios has been performed. The procedure provides strong ground motion parameters for the purpose of earthquake engineering, based on the deterministic seismic wave propagation modelling at different scales - regional, national and metropolitan. The main advantage of this neo-deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the earthquake source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles. The neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure has been successfully applied to numerous metropolitan areas all over the world in the framework of several international projects. In this study some examples focused on CEI region concerning both regional seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation of the selected metropolitan areas are shown. (author)

  13. Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

  14. Vulnerability Assessment by Learning Attack Specifications in Graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Lopes, Raul H.C.

    This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies

  15. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment using Drastic Index and GIS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... The "Low" and "Very Low" vulnerability are located at the northern, central and southern parts of KMA ..... the contaminant is soluble in water and flows with it and is ... the aquifer, the higher the permeability and hence higher ...

  16. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density.

  17. Seismic qualification of equipment by means of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Farahzad, P.; Boccio, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Upon the sponsorship of the Equipment Qualification Branch (EQB) of NRC, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has utilized a risk-based approach for identifying, in a generic fashion, seismically risk-sensitive equipment. It is anticipated that the conclusions drawn therefrom and the methodology employed will, in part, reconcile some of the concerns dealing with the seismic qualification of equipment in operating plants. The approach taken augments an existing sensitivity analysis, based upon the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study (RSS), by accounting for seismicity and component fragility with the Kennedy model and by essentially including the requisite seismic data presented in the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study (ZPSS). Parametrically adjusting the seismic-related variables and ascertaining their effects on overall plant risk, core-melt probability, accident sequence probability, etc., allows one to identify those seismically risk-sensitive systems and equipment. This paper describes the approach taken and highlights the results obtained thus far for a hypothetical pressurized water reactor

  18. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonkyung Park

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  19. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  20. Operating experience and aging-seismic assessment of electric motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subudhi, M.; Burns, E.L.; Taylor, J.H.

    1985-06-01

    Objectives of this program are to identify concerns related to the aging and service wear of equipment operating in nuclear power plants, to assess their possible impact on plant safety, to identify effective inspection surveillance and monitoring methods and to recommend suitable maintenance practices for mitigating aging related concerns and diminish the rate of degradation due to aging and service wear. Motor design and materials of construction are reviewed to identify age-sensitive components. Operational and accidental stressors are determined, and their effect on promoting aging degradation is assessed. Failure modes, mechanisms, and causes have been reviewed from operating experiences and existing data banks. The study has also included consideration for the seismic correlation of age-degraded motor components. The aforementioned reviews and assessments were assimilated to characterize the dielectric, rotational, and mechanical hazards on motor performance and operational readiness. The functional indicators which can be monitored to assess motor component deterioration due to aging or other accidental stressors are identified. Conforming with the NPAR strategy as outlined in the program plan, the study also includes a preliminary discussion of current standards and guides, maintenance programs, and research activities pertaining to nuclear power plant safety-related electric motors

  1. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

  2. Seismic Isolation of Liquefied Natural Gas Tanks: a Compartive Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marti Rodriguez, Joaquin; Crespo Álvarez, María José; Martinez Cutillas, Francisco J.

    2010-01-01

    In severe seismic environments, tanks for storage of liquefied natural gas may benefit from seismic isolation. As the design accelerations increase, the inner tank undergoes progressively greater demands and may suffer from corner uplift, elephant’s foot buckling, gross sliding, shell thickness requirements beyond what can be reliably welded and, eventually, global uplift. Some of these problems cause extra costs while others make the construction impossible. The seismic environments at which...

  3. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saheed A. Oke

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

  4. Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

    2012-12-01

    Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

  5. Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

    2016-10-01

    The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

  6. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

    2009-01-01

    The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  8. Vulnerability assessment to Drought in Various Provinces, approach towards risk management in the country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nasrnia

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, thorough understanding and knowledge of each region's vulnerability, which is neglected in our country, unfortunately. It is necessary to study the influencing factors in determining vulnerability and makes it visible. On the other hand, due to the continuing drought conditions intensified in recent years and its impact on different economic sectors, especially the agricultural sector in the country need to assess vulnerability to drought in the country will double. Materials and Methods: Fuzzy AHP method based on the concept of fuzzy sets introduced by LotfeiZadeh. There are several ways to use fuzzy theory and hierarchical structure proposed merger. Cheng in 1996 suggested a new approach to solve problems using Fuzzy AHP calibration values within the membership and (TFNs. Extent Analysis Method proposed by Chang is one of the common ways to solve problems. In this study, we developed a method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Chang that has been developed by Zhu et al. and Van Alhag. Results and Discussion: Vulnerability to drought conditions is determined by factors such as economic, social and physical sensitivity to the damaging effects of drought increases. This study is designed in the hierarchy. The purpose of this study is assessing the vulnerability of the country to drought. Vulnerability of this study includes economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and physical vulnerability. Economic vulnerability to drought indicates that the economy is vulnerable to external shocks due to drought and the inability of the economy to withstand the effects of the event and recover the situation. Social vulnerability determines the capacity to

  9. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  10. Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hashemi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study, the earthquake damage assessment (EDA software tool is developed as an embedded extension within a GIS (geographic information system environment for the city of Tehran, Iran. This GIS-based extension provides users with a familiar environment to estimate and observe the probable damages and fatalities of a deterministic earthquake scenario. The productivity of this tool is later demonstrated for southern Karoon parish, Region 10, Tehran. Three case studies for three active faults in the area and a comparison of the results with other research substantiated the reliability of this tool for additional earthquake scenarios.

  11. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  12. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  13. Assessment of carotid plaque vulnerability using structural and geometrical determinants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Z.Y.; Tang, T.; U-King-Im, J.; Graves, M.; Gillard, J.H.; Sutcliffe, M.

    2008-01-01

    Because many acute cerebral ischemic events are caused by rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis, the present study used both idealized and patient-specific carotid atheromatous plaque models to evaluate the effect of structural determinants on stress distributions within plaque. Using a finite element method, structural analysis was performed using models derived from in vivo high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of carotid atheroma in 40 non-consecutive patients (20 symptomatic, 20 asymptomatic). Plaque components were modeled as hyper-elastic materials. The effects of varying fibrous cap thickness, lipid core size and lumen curvature on plaque stress distributions were examined. Lumen curvature and fibrous cap thickness were found to be major determinants of plaque stress. The size of the lipid core did not alter plaque stress significantly when the fibrous cap was relatively thick. The correlation between plaque stress and lumen curvature was significant for both symptomatic (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.689) and asymptomatic patients (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.862). Lumen curvature in plaques of symptomatic patients was significantly larger than those of asymptomatic patients (1.50±1.0 mm -1 vs 1.25±0.75 mm -1 ; p=0.01). Specific plaque morphology (large lumen curvature and thin fibrous cap) is closely related to plaque vulnerability. Structural analysis using high-resolution MRI of carotid atheroma may help in detecting vulnerable atheromatous plaque and aid the risk stratification of patients with carotid disease. (author)

  14. Overview of seismic probabilistic risk assessment for structural analysis in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1989-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for seismic events is currently being performed for nuclear and DOE facilities. The background on seismic PRA is presented along with a basic description of the method. The seismic PRA technique is applicable to other critical facilities besides nuclear plants. The different approaches for obtained structure fragility curves are discussed and their applications to structures and equipment, in general, are addressed. It is concluded that seismic PRA is a useful technique for conducting probability analysis for a wide range of classes of structures and equipment

  15. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  16. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

  17. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  18. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  19. Seismic source zone characterization for the seismic hazard assessment project PEGASOS by the Expert Group 2 (EG1b)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhard, M.; Gruenthal, G.

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the seismic hazard related to the four NNP sites in NW Switzerland was performed within the project PEGASOS. To account for the epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of the characterization of seismic source zones in the frame of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, four different expert teams have developed and defended their models in the frame of an intensive elicitation process. Here, the results of one out of four expert groups are presented. The model of this team is based first of all on considerations regarding the large scale tectonics in the context of the Alpine collision, and neotectonic constraints for defining seismic source zones. This leads to a large scale subdivision based on the structural 'architectural' considerations with little input from the present seismicity. Each of the eight large zones was characterized by the style of present-day faulting, fault orientation, and hypo central depth distribution. A further subdivision of the larger zones is performed based on information provided by the seismicity patterns. 58 small source zones have been defined in this way, each of them characterized by the available tectonic constrains, as well as the pros and cons of different existing geologic views connected to them. Of special concern in this respect were the discussion regarding thin skinned vs. thick skinned tectonics, the tectonic origin of the 1356 Basel earthquake, the role of the Permo-Carboniferous graben structures, and finally the seismogenic orientation of faults with respect to the recent crustal stress field. The uncertainties connected to the delimitations of the small source zones have been handled in form of their regrouping, formalized by the logic tree technique. The maximum magnitudes were estimated as discretized probability distribution functions. After de-clustering the used ECOS earthquake catalogue and an analysis of data completeness as a function of time the parameters of the

  20. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR: status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, T.Y.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Wells, J.E.; Johnson, J.J.

    1985-02-01

    The seismic risk methodology developed in the US NRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR). A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models was developed and analyzed. The SSMRP methodology can equally be applied to a boiling water reactor (BWR). To demonstrate its applicability, to identify fundamental differences in seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR, and to provide a basis of comparison of seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR when analyzed with comparable methodology and assumptions, a seismic risk analysis is being performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant

  1. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  2. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation

  3. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  4. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  5. An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Environmental impact assessment: Classification of ecosystems with respect to vulnerability for radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blytt, Line Diana

    1999-01-01

    This presentation recommends that an environmental impact assessment should be made ahead of any major action plan in the environment. The final document should point out to the authorities and public that expertise has been systematised in order to predict the effects of an action plan on the environment. This should be done for different scenarios and time scales. A useful tool for an environmental impact assessment is GIS, Geographic Information Systems. It can be used to identify areas and ecosystems that are vulnerable to radioactive contamination. To predict the radiation dose to humans and biota, a vulnerability assessment considers population density, land use, economic resources and the chemical and biological pathways of radionuclides in different ecosystems. Supplemented with knowledge of consumption and dietary habits a vulnerability assessment can be used to identify critical groups and to calculate doses to these groups. For ecosystems, vulnerability can be quantified by using critical loads for radioactive contamination or flux of radionuclides from an area. One criterion for critical load can be that intervention limits for food products should not be exceeded. If the critical load is low, this indicates a high vulnerability. The flux from an area can also identify vulnerability and it can be used to calculate collective dose. The vulnerability approach is a methodology that can be used to select areas that are suitable for treatment, transport and disposal of radioactive waste

  7. Vulnerability assessment as a missing part of efficient regulatory emergency preparedness system for nuclear critical infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.

    2007-01-01

    One introduces a new model to assess the vulnerability of the nuclear infrastructure critical facilities. The new procedure of the vulnerability assessment (the VA) aims to reevaluate the efficiency of the present-day safeguards. On the basis of deeper insight into the VA new strategy and of the elaborated procedure to analyze the hazards for the nuclear power facilities one recommends the key safeguards affecting the damage magnitude [ru

  8. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  9. Earthquake and Physical and Social Vulnerability Assessment for Settlements: Case Study Avcılar District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Görün ARUN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Many settled areas in Turkey and across the globe suffer economical and social losses resulting from natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and landslides. In this study, a vulnerability assessment model has been developed for earthquake prone areas in Turkey. The vulnerability assessment model includes ground factors, a building’s physical conditions, building evacuation and social (demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the settlement. The ground vulnerability factor is calculated using factors such as the earthquake zone, soil classification, land sliding and liquefaction threats. The physical vulnerability factor depends on the structural and non-structural threats of the building; the building evacuation vulnerability factor includes the position and structural system of the staircase, the width and natural illumination of the evacuation route, the size and opening of the building exit doors to the street and the distance of the building to the closest open area. The social vulnerability factor considers the age group, gender, family type, education, ownership, income etc of the building users. This vulnerability assessment model is applied to a case study - that of the Avcılar district of Istanbul. Forty different reinforced concrete residential buildings (349 apartments of 1225 people are assessed using the develop checklist. In order to evaluate the checklist and to assess the importance (relevance of vulnerability factors, a questionnaire is forwarded to various related professional groups (architecture, urban planning and civil engineering. The results of the questionnaire are examined using SPSS software with factor analysis. According to the results, most of the samples in the case study area can be classified as high vulnerable.

  10. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

    2018-05-01

    This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  11. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  12. Methodology and results of the seismic probabilistic safety assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermaut, M.K.; Monette, P.; Campbell, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    A seismic IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination for External Events) was performed for the Krsko plant. The methodology adopted is the seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). The Krsko NPP is located on a medium to high seismicity site. The PSA study described here includes all the steps in the PSA sequence, i.e. reassessment of the site hazard, calculation of plant structures response including soil-structure interaction, seismic plant walkdowns, probabilistic seismic fragility analysis of plant structures and components, and quantification of seismic core damage frequency (CDF). Also relay chatter analysis and soil stability studies were performed. The seismic PSA described here is limited to the analysis of CDF (level I PSA). The subsequent determination and quantification of plant damage states, containment behaviour and radioactive releases to the outside (level 2 PSA) have been performed for the Krsko NPP but are not further described in this paper. The results of the seismic PSA study indicate that, with some upgrades suggested by the PSA team, the seismic induced CDF is comparable to that of most US and Western Europe NPPs. (author)

  13. Vulnerability to air pollution: a building block in assessing vulnerability to multiple stressors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Matooane, M

    2010-08-30

    Full Text Available security Mental conditions Some practical examples Many people: • dependent on grants •illiterate •jobless •with HIV/AIDS, TB •AIDS orphans •affected by crime and violence •use dirty fuels Many sewage plants don’t function properly... and the overall quality of the assessment Exposure to Air Pollution © CSIR 2009 www.csir.co.za Air pollution PM, SOx, NOx, O3, VOCs,etc. Measured/Modelled Urban development Land use distribution Meteorology Cultural practices...

  14. Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations: Ground Motion Prediction Equations and Site Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    The objective of this publication is to provide the state-of-the-art practice and detailed technical elements related to ground motion evaluation by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and site response in the context of seismic hazard assessments as recommended in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The publication includes the basics of GMPEs, ground motion simulation, selection and adjustment of GMPEs, site characterization, and modelling of site response in order to improve seismic hazard assessment. The text aims at delineating the most important aspects of these topics (including current practices, criticalities and open problems) within a coherent framework. In particular, attention has been devoted to filling conceptual gaps. It is written as a reference text for trained users who are responsible for planning preparatory seismic hazard analyses for siting of all nuclear installations and/or providing constraints for anti-seismic design and retrofitting of existing structures

  15. Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs: A Case Study from Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodeano Roslee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.4.1.49-59The topic on Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs in Malaysia is relatively new and received little attention from geoscientists and engineers. This research paper tries to formulate the concept of LVAs by taking into account the science and socio-economic aspects. A new approach in vulnerability concept is also introduced herein. To achieve this goal, a framework was designed for assessing the LVAs. The framework was formulated semiquantitatively through the development of database for the risk elements (human and properties based on information from secondary data (technical reports, extensive review of literature, and field observations. The vulnerability parameters included in assessing LVAs are 1 physical implication (building structures, internal materials, property damage, infrastructural facilities, and stabilization actions, 2 social status (injury, fatalities, safety, loss of accommodation, and public awareness, and 3 interference on environment (affected period, daily operation, and diversity. Each considered parameter in the vulnerability assessment is allocated with a certain index value ranges from 0 (0 % damage/victims/period, 0.25 (1 - 25% damage/victims/period, 0.50 (26 - 50% damage/victims/period, 0.75 (51 - 75% damage/victims/period, and 1.00 (75 - 100% damage/victims/period. All of these parameters are compiled and analyzed with “Landslide Distribution Map” (LDM to generate a “Landslide Vulnerability Degree map (LVD”. The LDM was produced based on field studies and satellite image interpretations in order to locate the landslide locations in the studied area. Finally, three types of physical, human, and environment vulnerabilities were then classified into five classes of vulnerabilities, namely: Class 1 (< 0.20: Very Low Vulnerability; Class 2 (0.21 - 0.40: Low Vulnerability; Class 3 (0.41 - 0.60: Medium Vulnerability; Class 4 (0.61 - 0.80: High Vulnerability; and Class 5 (> 0.81: Very

  16. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

  17. Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano

    2016-12-01

    The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

  18. The seismic assessment of radially keyed graphite moderator cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steer, A.G.; Payne, J.F.B.

    1996-01-01

    The modelling of AGR and Magnox cores has to deal with the very large number of components that make up the core, and the non-linear response due to the clearances in the keying system. This paper examines the conditions under which it is permissible to linearise the response. By comparing the results of discrete and continuum models of the core, the paper also shows that the number of components in the core is sufficiently large that the core can be approximated satisfactorily by an anisotropic solid material. The material has unusual properties, but these can be handled within the standard framework for the description of the elastic properties of an anisotropic solid. This description of the core by an equivalent solid material can readily be incorporated into finite element models of the reactor internal structure. Such models have been set up for both AGR and Magnox reactors. The models are being used to assess the seismic response of these reactors. (author). 5 refs, 6 figs

  19. Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse

  20. Assessment of seismic hazards along the northern Gulf of Aqaba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman Aqel

    Aqaba and Elat are very important port and recreation cities for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, respectively. The two cities are the most susceptible to damage from a destructive future earthquake because they are located over the tectonically active Dead Sea transform fault (DST) that is the source of most of the major historical earthquakes in the region. The largest twentieth century earthquake on the DST, the magnitude Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake of November 22, 1995, caused damage to structures in both cities. The integration of geological, geophysical, and earthquake engineering studies will help to assess the seismic hazards by determining the location and slip potential of active faults and by mapping areas of high liquefaction susceptibility. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a high resolution shallow geophysical tool was used to map the shallow active faults in Aqaba, Taba Sabkha area, and Elat. The GPR data revealed the onshore continuation of the Evrona, West Aqaba, Aqaba fault zones, and several transverse faults. The integration of offshore and onshore data confirm the extension of these faults along both sides of the Gulf of Aqaba. A 3D model of GPR data at one site in Aqaba indicates that the NW-trending transverse faults right laterally offset older than NE-trending faults. The most hazardous fault is the Evrona fault which extends north to the Tabs Sabkha. A geographic information system (GIS) database of the seismic hazard was created in order to facilitate the analyzing, manipulation, and updating of the input parameters. Liquefaction potential maps were created for the region based on analysis of borehole data. The liquefaction map shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba. In Aqaba several hotels are located within a high and moderate liquefaction zones. The Yacht Club, Aqaba, Ayla archaeological site, and a part of commercial area are also situated in a risk area. A part

  1. Seismic hazard assessment in intra-plate areas and backfitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Eng, P.

    2001-01-01

    Typically, fuel cycle facilities have been constructed over a 40 year time period incorporating various ages of seismic design provisions ranging from no specific seismic requirements to the life safety provisions normally incorporated in national building codes through to the latest seismic nuclear codes that provide not only for structural robustness but also include operational requirements for continued operation of essential safety functions. The task is to ensure uniform seismic risk in all facilities. Since the majority of the fuel cycle infrastructure has been built the emphasis is on re-evaluation and backfitting. The wide range of facilities included in the fuel cycle and the vastly varying hazard to safety, health and the environment suggest a performance based approach. This paper presents such an approach, placed in an intra-plate setting of a Stable Continental Region (SCR) typical to that found in Eastern Canada. (author)

  2. Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

    2013-12-01

    Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

  3. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  4. Transient postseismic mantle relaxation following 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications of seismic vulnerability in the Andaman-Nicobar region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Reddy

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the world, the tsunami generation potential of some large under-sea earthquakes significantly contributes to regional seismic hazard, which gives rise to significant risk in the near-shore provinces where human settlements are in sizeable population, often referred to as coastal seismic risk. In this context, we show from the pertinent GPS data that the transient stresses generated by the viscoelastic relaxation process taking place in the mantle is capable of rupturing major faults by stress transfer from the mantle through the lower crust including triggering additional rupture on the other major faults. We also infer that postseismic relaxation at relatively large depths can push some of the fault segments to reactivation causing failure sequences. As an illustration to these effects, we consider in detail the earthquake sequence comprising six events, starting from the main event of Mw = 7.5, on 10 August 2009 and tapering off to a small earthquake of Mw = 4.5 on 2 February 2011 over a period of eighteen months in the intensely seismic Andaman Islands between India and Myanmar. The persisting transient stresses, spatio-temporal seismic pattern, modeled Coulomb stress changes, and the southward migration of earthquake activity has increased the probability of moderate earthquakes recurring in the northern Andaman region, particularly closer to or somewhat south of Diglipur.

  5. Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Yunsheng

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismicity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earthquakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types; Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock (terrane slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near-surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2. 0. Therefore, the intensity of the earthquakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4. 1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-induced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

  6. Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Papathoma-Köhle

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth. The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

  7. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

  8. Assessment of the Metrological Performance of Seismic Tables for a QMS Recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, A Silva; Costa, A Campos; Candeias, P; Martins, L Lages; Martins, A C Freitas; Ferreira, A C; Sousa, J Alves e

    2016-01-01

    Seismic testing and analysis using large infrastructures, such as shaking tables and reaction walls, is performed worldwide requiring the use of complex instrumentation systems. To assure the accuracy of these systems, conformity assessment is needed to verify the compliance with standards and applications, and the Quality Management Systems (QMS) is being increasingly applied to domains where risk analysis is critical as a way to provide a formal recognition. This paper describes an approach to the assessment of the metrological performance of seismic shake tables as part of a QMS recognition, with the analysis of a case study of LNEC Seismic shake table. (paper)

  9. Assessment of the Metrological Performance of Seismic Tables for a QMS Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva Ribeiro, A.; Campos Costa, A.; Candeias, P.; Sousa, J. Alves e.; Lages Martins, L.; Freitas Martins, A. C.; Ferreira, A. C.

    2016-11-01

    Seismic testing and analysis using large infrastructures, such as shaking tables and reaction walls, is performed worldwide requiring the use of complex instrumentation systems. To assure the accuracy of these systems, conformity assessment is needed to verify the compliance with standards and applications, and the Quality Management Systems (QMS) is being increasingly applied to domains where risk analysis is critical as a way to provide a formal recognition. This paper describes an approach to the assessment of the metrological performance of seismic shake tables as part of a QMS recognition, with the analysis of a case study of LNEC Seismic shake table.

  10. Department of Energy Plutonium ES ampersand H Vulnerability Assessment Savannah River Site interim compensatory measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickford, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has recently completed a self-assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with plutonium and other transuranic materials stored at the site. An independent Working Group Assessment Team (WGAT) appointed by DOE/ES ampersand H also performed an independent assessment, and reviewed and validated the site self-assessment. The purpose of this report is to provide a status of interim compensatory measures at SRS to address hazards in advance of any corrective actions. ES ampersand H has requested this status for all vulnerabilities ranked medium or higher with respect to potential consequences to workers, environment, and the public

  11. Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

    2018-04-01

    Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from

  12. Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

  13. Data Quality Objectives Workbook for Assessing Chemical Vulnerability Potential in REDOX and U Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, R. G.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this data quality objective workbook is to present the rationale for selecting the sampling and characterization strategy that supports the assessment of the chemical vulnerabilities of the five tanks. Since characterization of the tanks' contents is likely to be expensive, a secondary goal was established to characterize the tank contents for proper waste designation and disposal at the same time the tanks are characterized for chemical vulnerability

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of DRASTIC Model in Vulnerability Assessment of Shahrood Alluvial Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shadi Abolhasan Almasi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment is typically accomplished as a management tool to protect groundwater resources. In this research, the DRASTIC model which is an empirical one used for evaluating the potential of an aquifer for pollution was employed to evaluate the vulnerability of Shahrood alluvial aquifer. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model paramneters was assessed to identify the ones with greatest effect on vulnerability. The model layers including depth to groundwater table level, recharge, aquifer media, topography, impact of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity were prepared and classified in the ArcGIS software based on analyses of both the available data and the layer of surface soil texture using Aster satellite images. Once the vulnerability index was calculated, the sensitivity map of Shahroud aquifer vulnerability was analyzed using the two parameter removal and single parameter sensitivity methods. These were further verified by textural analysis of soil samples from different parts of the region. The layers with appropriate weights were overlaid and the DRASTIC index of the aquifer was estimated at 28 to 148. The highest vulnerability was detected in the northern margins and southwestern parts of the aquifer while other parts were characterized by medium to low vulnerability. The low nitrogen concentration observed in the farm areas and its rise to 45 mg/l in the northern stretches of the aquifer bear witness to the accuracy of the zoning rendered by the DRASTIC model. Based on the vulnerability map of Sharoud aquifer, it was found that 1.6% of the aquifer’s area has a very high vulnerability or potential for pollution followed by 10%, 28.8%, and 18.9% of the area were identified as having high, medium and low potentials for pollution, respecytively. The remaining (i.e., 40.5% was found to have no risk of pollution.

  15. Seismic Failure Mechanism of Reinforced Cold-Formed Steel Shear Wall System Based on Structural Vulnerability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihong Ye

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A series of structural vulnerability analyses are conducted on a reinforced cold-formed steel (RCFS shear wall system and a traditional cold-formed steel (CFS shear wall system subjected to earthquake hazard based on forms in order to investigate their failure mechanisms. The RCFS shear wall adopts rigid beam-column joints and continuous concrete-filled CFS tube end studs rather than coupled-C section end studs that are used in traditional CFS shear walls, to achieve the rigid connections in both beam-column joints and column bases. The results show that: the RCFS and traditional CFS shear wall systems both exhibit the maximum vulnerability index associated with the failure mode in the first story. Therefore, the first story is likely to be a weakness of the CFS shear wall system. Once the wall is damaged, the traditional CFS shear wall system would collapse because the shear wall is the only lateral-resisting component. However, the collapse resistance of the RCFS shear wall system is effectively enhanced by the second defense, which is provided by a framework integrated by rigid beam-column joints and fixed column bases. The predicted collapse mode with maximum vulnerability index that was obtained by structural vulnerability analysis agrees well with the experimental result, and the structural vulnerability method is thereby verified to be reasonable to identify the weaknesses of framed structures and predict their collapse modes. Additionally, the quantitative vulnerability index indicates that the RCFS shear wall system exhibits better robustness compared to the traditional one. Furthermore, the “strong frame weak wallboard” and the “strong column weak beam” are proposed in this study as conceptional designations for the RCFS shear wall systems.

  16. Assessing Urban Streets Network Vulnerability against Earthquake Using GIS - Case Study: 6TH Zone of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastegar, A.

    2017-09-01

    Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

  17. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  18. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  19. Rippability Assessment of Weathered Sedimentary Rock Mass using Seismic Refraction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, M. A. M.; Kumar, N. S.; Abidin, M. H. Z.; Madun, A.

    2018-04-01

    Rippability or ease of excavation in sedimentary rocks is a significant aspect of the preliminary work of any civil engineering project. Rippability assessment was performed in this study to select an available ripping machine to rip off earth materials using the seismic velocity chart provided by Caterpillar. The research area is located at the proposed construction site for the development of a water reservoir and related infrastructure in Kampus Pauh Putra, Universiti Malaysia Perlis. The research was aimed at obtaining seismic velocity, P-wave (Vp) using a seismic refraction method to produce a 2D tomography model. A 2D seismic model was used to delineate the layers into the velocity profile. The conventional geotechnical method of using a borehole was integrated with the seismic velocity method to provide appropriate correlation. The correlated data can be used to categorize machineries for excavation activities based on the available systematic analysis procedure to predict rock rippability. The seismic velocity profile obtained was used to interpret rock layers within the ranges labelled as rippable, marginal, and non-rippable. Based on the seismic velocity method the site can be classified into loose sand stone to moderately weathered rock. Laboratory test results shows that the site’s rock material falls between low strength and high strength. Results suggest that Caterpillar’s smallest ripper, namely, D8R, can successfully excavate materials based on the test results integration from seismic velocity method and laboratory test.

  20. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  1. Seismic assessment of Kozloduy VVER 440, Model 230 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, P.; Baltus, R.; Yanev, P.; Campbell, R.

    1991-01-01

    Excluding system design deficiency relative to US and Western Europe standards, it was found that the plant has many seismic vulnerabilities similar to those that existed in many of the US plants prior to about 1979 when the Systematic Evaluation Program was initiated. The primary coolant system has been substantially upgraded after the 1977 Vrancea earthquake. Other upgrades have been made to weak elements in the ECCS and electrical systems. There are still a number of components that could likely survive the currently defined Safe Shutdown Earthquake of 0.1 g but which would not meet current design standards. Many of the weakest components could be upgraded at a moderate cost to withstand a seismic event exceeding 0.1 g. Current studies of the site seismicity lean toward a higher peak ground acceleration and increased amplification of building motion, thus backfits that have been accomplished may become marginal for newly defined loads. However the proper consideration of soil structure interaction and detailed structural analysis using less conservative modeling assumptions, could mitigate the impact of increasing the seismic input and limit the amount of reinforcement required. In the interim, substantial improvements to seismic safety could be accomplished by simple, inexpensive modifications to equipment anchorage and some achievable improvements to connection detail of the precast concrete structures. (author)

  2. Vulnerability assessment of the Toluca Valley aquifer combining a parametric approach and advective transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gárfias, J.; Llanos, H.; Franco, R.; Martel, R.

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment is an important task in water resources and land management. Depending on the availability of data and the complexity of the hydrogeological conditions, different approaches can be adopted. As an alternative, this study involves the use of a combined approach based on vulnerability methods and advective particle tracking to better understand the susceptibility to contamination in the Toluca valley aquifer. An intrinsic vulnerability map (DRASTIC) was used to identify areas that are more susceptible to ground water contamination. To estimate advective particle tracking, we developed a 3D flow model using VisualModflow and MODPATH to describe the regional flow of groundwater. The vulnerability map demonstrates the problematic application and interpretation of qualitative the vulnerability method of the parametric system group, which indicates a difference of approximately 23% when compared with the modified vulnerability map. Potential contamination sources based on landfill sites were comparatively high; approximately 76% are located in areas that could be susceptible to contamination through vertical infiltration, especially those that are located along the Lerma system of wells. Industrial parks located in the centre of the valley (83%), where continuous extraction of groundwater and land subsidence occurs, have been classified as high vulnerability zones, increasing the risk of contaminants from surface sources reaching the groundwater. In order to understand the susceptibility to contamination in the aquifer, various delineation approaches should be adopted and all the results that validate each other should be considered, thus making a good strategy for implementing different degrees of protection measures. [es

  3. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability to groundwater contamination in lahore, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, K.; Khan, R.M.; Ashfaq, M.; Ahsan, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study was intended to map intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater contamination in Lahore using GIS based DRASTIC model. The final output of DRASTIC model was reclassified into three equal interval classes, corresponding to low, moderate and high vulnerability regions. Most of the study area was found to have low to moderate vulnerability, with 27.48% area of low, 66.48% of moderate and only 6.04% area of high vulnerability. Most of the drinking water wells are installed in the residential area of the city, which shows low chances of contamination due to deep water table and almost no recharge. However, an industrial drain is located in the high vulnerable area in the southeastern part of the study area. The previous studies are in agreement with vulnerability zones. Further to remove any doubt in the suitability of assigned weight, map removal sensitivity analysis had been carried out. The assessment of the sensitivity analysis had been made through visual as well as quantitative methods. Priority order for contribution of the parameters in the vulnerability for the study area is D>I>C>R>A>T>S. (author)

  4. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  5. Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

  6. Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

    2014-12-01

    The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

  7. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  8. A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

  9. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  10. Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

    2016-12-01

    Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

  11. [Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

    2011-11-01

    Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

  12. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  13. Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Romanelli, Fabio

    2014-10-01

    A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.

  14. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  15. Excavatability Assessment of Weathered Sedimentary Rock Mass Using Seismic Velocity Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bin Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam; Noor, Muhazian Md; Isa, Mohamed Fauzi Bin Md.; Mazlan, Ain Naadia; Saad, Rosli

    2010-01-01

    Seismic refraction method is one of the most popular methods in assessing surface excavation. The main objective of the seismic data acquisition is to delineate the subsurface into velocity profiles as different velocity can be correlated to identify different materials. The physical principal used for the determination of excavatability is that seismic waves travel faster through denser material as compared to less consolidated material. In general, a lower velocity indicates material that is soft and a higher velocity indicates more difficult to be excavated. However, a few researchers have noted that seismic velocity method alone does not correlate well with the excavatability of the material. In this study, a seismic velocity method was used in Nusajaya, Johor to assess the accuracy of this seismic velocity method with excavatability of the weathered sedimentary rock mass. A direct ripping run by monitoring the actual production of ripping has been employed at later stage and compared to the ripper manufacturer's recommendation. This paper presents the findings of the seismic velocity tests in weathered sedimentary area. The reliability of using this method with the actual rippability trials is also presented.

  16. Excavatability Assessment of Weathered Sedimentary Rock Mass Using Seismic Velocity Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bin Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam; Saad, Rosli; Noor, Muhazian Md; Isa, Mohamed Fauzi Bin Md.; Mazlan, Ain Naadia

    2010-12-01

    Seismic refraction method is one of the most popular methods in assessing surface excavation. The main objective of the seismic data acquisition is to delineate the subsurface into velocity profiles as different velocity can be correlated to identify different materials. The physical principal used for the determination of excavatability is that seismic waves travel faster through denser material as compared to less consolidated material. In general, a lower velocity indicates material that is soft and a higher velocity indicates more difficult to be excavated. However, a few researchers have noted that seismic velocity method alone does not correlate well with the excavatability of the material. In this study, a seismic velocity method was used in Nusajaya, Johor to assess the accuracy of this seismic velocity method with excavatability of the weathered sedimentary rock mass. A direct ripping run by monitoring the actual production of ripping has been employed at later stage and compared to the ripper manufacturer's recommendation. This paper presents the findings of the seismic velocity tests in weathered sedimentary area. The reliability of using this method with the actual rippability trials is also presented.

  17. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods.

  18. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods

  19. Spatial vulnerability assessment : methodology for the community and district level applied to floods in Buzi, Mozambique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienberger, S.

    2010-01-01

    Within this thesis a conceptual model is presented which allows for the definition of a vulnerability assessment according to its time and spatial scale and within a multi-dimensional framework, which should help to design and develop appropriate methodologies and adaptation of concepts for the required scale of implementation. Building on past experiences with participatory approaches in community mapping in the District of Buzi in Mozambique, the relevance of such approaches for a community-based disaster risk reduction framework is analysed. Finally, methodologies are introduced which allow the assessment of vulnerability and the prioritisation of vulnerability factors at the community level. At the district level, homogenous vulnerability regions are identified through the application of integrated modelling approaches which build on expert knowledge and weightings. A set of indicators is proposed, which allow the modelling of vulnerability in a data-scarce environment. In developing these different methodologies for the community and district levels, it has been identified that the monitoring of vulnerability and the identification of trends is essential to addressing the objective of a continuous and improved disaster risk management. In addition to the technical and methodological challenges discussed in this thesis, the commitment from different stakeholders and the availability of capacity in different domains is essential for the successful, practical implementation of the developed approaches. (author)

  20. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  1. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.E. Oni

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65 m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1–0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0–0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1–0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI

  2. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  3. Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

    2018-02-01

    Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

  4. The Contribution of Palaeoseismology to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations, published in 2010, covers all aspects of site evaluation relating to seismic hazards and recommends the use of prehistoric, historical and instrumental earthquake data in seismic hazard assessments. Prehistoric data on earthquakes cover a much longer period than do historical and instrumental data. However, gathering such data is generally difficult in most regions of the world, owing to an absence of human records. Prehistoric data on earthquakes can be obtained through the use of palaeoseismic techniques. This publication describes the current status and practices of palaeoseismology, in order to support Member States in meeting the recommendations of SSG-9 and in establishing the necessary earthquake related database for seismic hazard assessment and reassessment. At a donors’ meeting of the International Seismic Safety Centre Extrabudgetary Project in January 2011, it was suggested to develop detailed guidelines on seismic hazards. Soon after the meeting, the disastrous Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March 2011 and the consequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant occurred. The importance of palaeoseismology for seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation was highlighted by the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. However, no methodology for performing investigations using palaeoseismic techniques has so far been available in an IAEA publication. The detailed guidelines and practical tools provided here will be of value to nuclear power plant operating organizations, regulatory bodies, vendors, technical support organizations and researchers in the area of seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation for nuclear installations, and the information will be of importance in support of hazard assessments in the future

  5. Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Yang Heui; Shin, Hyun Mok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2001-12-15

    The most part of the nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea are more than 20 years old and obviously we cannot pretend that their original performance is actually maintained. In addition, earthquake occurrences show an increasing trend all over the world, and Korea can no more be considered as a zone safe from earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

  6. Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Ho Hyun; Cho, Yang Hui [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2000-12-15

    Some of nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea have been passed about 20 years after construction. Moreover, in the case of KORI I the service year is over 20 years, so their abilities are different from initial abilities. Also, earthquake outbreak increase, our country is not safe area for earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

  7. Research on seal control systems for international nuclear safeguard and the vulnerability assessment on the seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hongjian; Liu Tianshu; Cao Fangfang; Xu Chunyan

    2014-01-01

    Safeguard seals, also called Tamper-indicating devices (TIDs), are widely used to detect tampering or unauthorized entry in the international safeguard and security systems, Seal control systems consist of seal implementing plan, seal development and the vulnerability assessment on tbe seals, effective implementing procedures and methods of the seals. The vulnerability assessment contents of safeguard seals, thermo-shrinked film seals being as an example, and seals control systems in the implementation program are researched. The seal control systems discuss task assignment, seals management flow and seals program data flow to promote applying effectively seals. The vulnerability assessment program of seals studies assurance level to some different tampering techniques and measures. The researches must promote utilizing seals effectively for nuclear security, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, radioactive waste management, and the nuclear material accounting and control. (authors)

  8. ASSESSMENT OF IMPORTANT SEISMIC PROVISIONS OF EBCS 8 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    resistant design of structures in Ethiopia have been made available since the' time of release of the three-volume. Ethiopian Standard Code of Practice (ESCP) in. 1983. The seismic provisions in this code occupied only few pages in the small volume for loading,. 'ESCP 1, and were limited to pseudo-static analysis.

  9. Seismic assessment of the Pickering pressure relief duct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghobarah, A.

    1995-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to examine the structural response of the Pickering pressure relief duct when subjected to earthquake ground motion and to estimate the seismic withstand capacity of various components of the structural system on the basis of performance criteria consistent with the safety function of the duct. (author). 24 refs., 16 tabs., 31 figs

  10. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the effect of vertical ground motions on seismic response of highway bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Zeynep

    Typically, the vertical component of the ground motion is not considered explicitly in seismic design of bridges, but in some cases the vertical component can have a significant effect on the structural response. The key question of when the vertical component should be incorporated in design is answered by the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study incorporating the probabilistic seismic demand models and ground motion models. Nonlinear simulation models with varying configurations of an existing bridge in California were considered in the analytical study. The simulation models were subjected to the set of selected ground motions in two stages: at first, only horizontal components of the motion were applied; while in the second stage the structures were subjected to both horizontal and vertical components applied simultaneously and the ground motions that produced the largest adverse effects on the bridge system were identified. Moment demand in the mid-span and at the support of the longitudinal girder and the axial force demand in the column are found to be significantly affected by the vertical excitations. These response parameters can be modeled using simple ground motion parameters such as horizontal spectral acceleration and vertical spectral acceleration within 5% to 30% error margin depending on the type of the parameter and the period of the structure. For a complete hazard assessment, both of these ground motion parameters explaining the structural behavior should also be modeled. For the horizontal spectral acceleration, Abrahamson and Silva (2008) model was used within many available standard model. A new NGA vertical ground motion model consistent with the horizontal model was constructed. These models are combined in a vector probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Series of hazard curves developed and presented for different locations in Bay Area for soil site conditions to provide a roadmap for the prediction of these features for future

  11. Assessing the Vulnerability of Wheat Farmers to Drought in North of Fars Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Iraji

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province. Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391 was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income

  12. Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  13. A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

  14. An assessment of flood vulnerability in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Qasim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this research we have attempted to measure vulnerability of the communities living in the flood prone area of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Extensive literature review was conducted to identify the flood vulnerability indicators. Primary data were used to achieve the objective of this study. Questionnaires were used to collect the primary data from the selected households and from the director of Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Subjective assessment technique was used to allocate weights to the selected indicators of vulnerability. A sample size of 280 respondents was taken from three selected locations of Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar. Simple random sampling was employed for the selection of respondents. Results revealed that overall vulnerability as well as component vulnerability for the selected locations was very high. The study therefore recommends preparedness, provision of funds for building houses with flood resistant materials and building houses in safer places. There is also a need for enhancing the adaptive capacities of the concerned communities through their socio-economic uplift. Implementation of these policies would lower the vulnerability of the communities to flood disasters.

  15. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  16. Development of seismic damage assessment system for nuclear power plant structures in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Chang-Hun; Lee, Sung-Kyu; Choi, Kang-Ryoung; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Cho, HoHyun

    2003-01-01

    A seismic damage assessment system that analyses in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and the damage level of power plant structures has been developed. The system consists of three parts: a 3-D inelastic seismic analysis, a damage assessment using a damage index based on the previous 3-D analysis, and a 3-D graphic representation. PSC containment structures are modelled by finite shell elements using layered method and analysis is performed by means of time history inelastic seismic analysis method, which takes into account material nonlinearities. HHT-α, one kind of direct integration method, is adopted for the seismic analysis. Two damage indices at finite element and structural levels are applied for the seismic damage assessment. 3-D graphical representation of dynamic responses and damage index expedites procedure for evaluating the damage level. The developed system is now being installed at the Earthquake Monitoring Center of KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) to support site inspections after an earthquake occurrence, and decisions about effective emergency measures, repair and operations of the plant. (author)

  17. The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesseloo, Johan

    2018-06-01

    Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

  18. The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the

  19. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  20. Vulnerability Assessment for a Complex Structure Using Vibration Response Induced by Impact Load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jeongwon; Park, Junhong; Koo, Man Hoi

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a vulnerability assessment procedure for a complex structure using vibration characteristics. The structural behavior of a three-dimensional framed structure subjected to impact forces was predicted using the spectral element method. The Timoshenko beam function was applied to simulate the impact wave propagations induced by a high-velocity projectile at relatively high frequencies. The interactions at the joints were analyzed for both flexural and longitudinal wave propagations. Simulations of the impact energy transfer through the entire structure were performed using the transient displacement and acceleration responses obtained from the frequency analysis. The kill probabilities of the crucial components for an operating system were calculated as a function of the predicted acceleration amplitudes according to the acceptable vibration levels. Following the proposed vulnerability assessment procedure, the vulnerable positions of a three-dimensional combat vehicle with high possibilities of damage generation of components by impact loading were identified from the estimated vibration responses

  1. Assessment of Quantitative Aftershock Productivity Potential in Mining-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata

    2017-03-01

    Strong mining-induced earthquakes exhibit various aftershock patterns. The aftershock productivity is governed by the geomechanical properties of rock in the seismogenic zone, mining-induced stress and coseismic stress changes related to the main shock's magnitude, source geometry and focal mechanism. In order to assess the quantitative aftershock productivity potential in the mining environment we apply a forecast model based on natural seismicity properties, namely constant tectonic loading and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Although previous studies proved that mining-induced seismicity does not obey the simple power law, here we apply it as an approximation of seismicity distribution to resolve the number of aftershocks, not considering their magnitudes. The model used forecasts the aftershock productivity based on the background seismicity level estimated from an average seismic moment released per earthquake and static stress changes caused by a main shock. Thus it accounts only for aftershocks directly triggered by coseismic process. In this study we use data from three different mines, Mponeng (South Africa), Rudna and Bobrek (Poland), representing different geology, exploitation methods and aftershock patterns. Each studied case is treated with individual parameterization adjusted to the data specifics. We propose the modification of the original model, i.e. including the non-uniformity of M 0, resulting from spatial correlation of mining-induced seismicity with exploitation. The results show that, even when simplified seismicity distribution parameters are applied, the modified model predicts the number of aftershocks for each analyzed case well and accounts for variations between these values. Such results are thus another example showing that coseismic processes of mining-induced seismicity reflect features of natural seismicity and that similar models can be applied to study the aftershock rate in both the natural and the

  2. Current methodologies for assessing seismically induced settlements in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledbetter, R.

    1983-08-01

    Earthquake-induced surface settlements have ranged from 0.7 to 10 percent of layer thickness for the relatively few incidences where reliable estimates have been made of settlement magnitudes and soil conditions. Standard penetration test results obtained for pre-earthquake and postearthquake conditions in Japan show that relative densities have changed from 188 percent increase to 44 percent decrease. At present, there are no verified methods of seismic settlement analysis. However, there are current methods of analysis ranging from empirical to fully theoretical, which take into account a few to all of the major variables affecting seismically induced settlement behavior. This report reviews pertinent current knowledge and methodologies related to this subject. 69 references, 9 figures

  3. (Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF SCHOOL BUILDINGS IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Tan, K.T.; Razak, H. Abdul

    2015-01-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is located on the southern edge of the Eurasian Plate. However, it is close to a seismically active plate boundary, the inter-plate boundary between the Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates. Occasionally, tremors can be felt throughout the region even when active faults are located several hundred kilometers away. Lessons learnt from past events, active earthquakes located far from the existing building can cause potential damage. Thus, fragility curves become an essential ...

  5. Climate Change and Coastal Zones. An Overview of the State-of-the-Art on Regional and Local Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.

    2000-06-01

    This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany

  6. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  7. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  8. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  9. Territorial Vulnerability Assessment Supporting Risk Managing Coastal Areas Due to Tsunami Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Leandro Barros

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Portugal’s coastline extends 1187 km. It is characterized by social, economic and physical conditions that differentiate it from the rest of the territory, including population density, location of infrastructure and support of tourism activities. Therefore, it has a significant exposure if a tsunami occurs. Six coastal study sites with varying characteristics were selected for evaluation in this paper, including two core beach-use areas, two residential areas and two industrial areas. These sites are located in the municipalities of Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila do Bispo. The analysis began with the calculation of the potential tsunami inundation area for each site using the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Next, a methodology distinguished by its multidimensional character was applied to assess local vulnerability to tsunamis. This methodology assesses vulnerabilities associated with morphological, structural, social and tax factors. These four vulnerability components were combined to obtain a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI, which enabled us to identify the most vulnerable areas and to determine the distinguishing characteristics of each area.

  10. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  11. Seismic risk assessment in the Mexican Nuclear Center applying the Gumbel-I distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.; Arguelles F, R.; Camacho L, M.E.; Urrutia F, J.

    1997-01-01

    A licensing requirement for the operation of nuclear facilities is the performance of different kinds of studies, one of which is seismic risk assessment. This study is useful for the validation of the seismic coefficient applied in the structural design of the facilities. Thus, for the construction of a pilot nuclear fuel plant at Mexico Nuclear Centre of the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares (ININ), was necessary to make such study. The seismicity data for the period between 1912 and 1990 were used and the extreme values Gumbel-I distribution was applied to them. With this, ground acceleration seismic risk maps for recurrence periods of 1, 25 and 50 years were drawn up, showing maximum values of 1.2, 4.25, and 5.0 gales, respectively. (Author)

  12. State of the Art in Input Ground Motions for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In Kil; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of a Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis (SPSA) is to determine the probability distribution of core damage due to the potential effects of earthquakes. The SPSA is performed based on four steps, a seismic hazard analysis, a component fragility evaluation, a plant system and accident sequence analysis, and a consequence analysis. There are very different spectrum shapes in every ground motions. The structural response and the seismic load applied to equipment are greatly influenced by a spectral shape of the input ground motion. Therefore the input ground motion need to be determined under the same assumption in risk calculation. Several technic for the determination of input ground motions has developed and reviewed in this study. In this research, the methodologies of the determination of input ground motion for the seismic risk assessment are reviewed and discussed. It has developed to reduce the uncertainty in fragility curves and to remove the conservatism in risk values.

  13. Seismic margin assessment and earthquake experience based methods for WWER-440/213 type NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1996-01-01

    This report covers the review of the already completed studies, namely, safe shutdown system identification and classification for Bohunice NPP and the comparative study of standards and criteria. It contains a report on currently ongoing studies concerning seismic margin assessment and earthquake experience based methods in application for seismic evaluation and verification of structures and equipment components of the operating WWER-440/213 type NPPs. This is based on experiences obtained from Paks NPP. The work plan for the remaining period of Benchmark CRP and the new proposals are included. These are concerned with seismic evaluation of selected safety related mechanical equipment and pipes of Paks NPP, and the actual seismic issues of the Temelin WWER-1000 type NPP

  14. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  15. Base Isolation for Seismic Retrofitting of a Multiple Building Structure: Design, Construction, and Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Ferraioli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the seismic retrofit of a multiple building structure belonging to the Hospital Centre of Avellino (Italy. At first, the paper presents the preliminary investigations, the in situ measurements and laboratory tests, and the seismic assessment of the existing fixed-base structures. Having studied different strategies, base isolation proved to be the more appropriate, also for the possibility offered by the geometry of the building to easily create an isolation interface at the ground level. The paper presents the design project, the construction process, and the details of the isolation intervention. Some specific issues of base isolation for seismic retrofitting of multiple building structures were lightened. Finally, the seismic assessment of the base-isolated building was carried out. The seismic response was evaluated through nonlinear time-history analysis, using the well-known Bouc-Wen model as the constitutive law of the isolation bearings. For reliable dynamic analyses, a suite of natural accelerograms compatible with acceleration spectra of Italian Code was first selected and then applied along both horizontal directions. The results were finally used to address some of the critical issues of the seismic response of the base-isolated multiple building structure: accidental torsional effects and potential poundings during strong earthquakes.

  16. Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, M.; Bindi, D.; Pittore, M.; Kieling, K.; Parolai, S.

    2013-04-01

    intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573-586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.

  17. Assessing Tsunami Vulnerabilities of Geographies with Shallow Water Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.

  18. Vulnerability assessment: Determining probabilities of neutralization of adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graves, B.R.

    1987-01-01

    The Security Manager charged with the responsibility of designing Safeguards and Security Systems at Department of Energy facilities must take many factors into consideration. There must be a clear understanding, supported by documented guidance, of the level of threat to be addressed; the nature of the facility to be protected, and the funds available to design, implement, and maintain the Safeguards and Security System. Armed with these prerequisites, the Security Manager may then determine the characteristics of the Safeguards measures and security forces necessary to protect the facility. Security forces selection and training programs may then be established based on realistic facility needs. The next step is to attempt to determine the probability of security forces winning in a confrontation with adversaries. To determine the probability of success the Security Manager must consider the characteristics of the facility and surrounding area; the characteristics of the security forces and safeguards system at the facility; the response time and capabilities of the augmentation forces and the characteristics and capabilities of the adversary threat level to be addressed. Obviously, the Safeguards and Security Systems must initially address ''worst case'' scenarios consistent with stated guidelines. Validation of the assessment of the Safeguards and Security Systems must then be determined by simulation testing of the capabilities of the response forces against the capabilities of the adversary

  19. Seismic safety of building structures of NPP Kozloduy III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varbanov, G.I.; Kostov, M.K.; Stefanov, D.D.; Kaneva, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    In the proposed paper is presented a general summary of the analyses carried out to evaluate the dynamic behavior and to assess the seismic safety of some safety related building structures of NPP Kozloduy. The design seismic loads for the site of Kozloduy NPP has been reevaluated and increased during and after the construction of investigated Units 5 and 6. Deterministic and probabilistic approaches are applied to assess the seismic vulnerability of the investigated structures, taking into account the newly defined seismic excitations. The presented results show sufficient seismic safety for the studied critical structures and good efficiency of the seismic upgrading. The applicability of the investigated structures at sites with some higher seismic activities is discussed. The presented study is dealing mainly with the civil structures of the Reactor building, Turbine hall, Diesel Generator Station and Water Intake Structure. (authors)

  20. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

    2018-02-01

    Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

  1. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  2. A rapid, low cost approach to coastal vulnerability assessment at a national level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez Royo, M.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Jimenez, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerability is defined as the system's potential to be damaged by a certain climate change (CC) hazard, and ideally, it has to be assessed by accounting for the different factors controlling the coastal response both in negative (susceptibility) and positive (resilience) terms to changing climatic

  3. 6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. 27.240 Section 27.240 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval...

  4. A method to assess multi-modal hazmat transport security vulnerabilities: Hazmat transport SVA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2013-01-01

    The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport

  5. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  6. Safety, mobility and comfort assessment methodologies of intelligent transport systems for vulnerable road users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malone, K.; Silla, A.; Johanssen, C.; Bell, D.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This paper describes the modification and development of methodologies to assess the impacts of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications for Vulnerable Road users (VRUs) in the domains of safety, mobility and comfort. This effort was carried out in the context of the VRUITS

  7. Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

    2015-01-01

    While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

  8. Assessing inter- and intraspecific variability of xylem vulnerability to embolism in oaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lobo, Albin; Torres-Ruiz, José M.; Burlett, Regis

    2018-01-01

    for future afforestation. However, the presence of long vessels makes it difficult to assess xylem vulnerability to embolism in these species. Thanks to the development of a flow centrifuge equipped with a large rotor, we quantified (i) the between species variability of embolism resistance in four native...

  9. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  10. Groundwater vulnerability assessment: from overlay methods to statistical methods in the Lombardy Plain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Stevenazzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the

  11. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  12. [The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level