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Sample records for seismic hazard maps

  1. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

    1999-01-01

    Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

  2. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Tanner

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.. Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion, 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion, and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions

  3. Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

  4. Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of

  5. 2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, M.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Haller, K.M.; Moschetti, M.; Harmsen, S.C.; Field, E.H.; Rukstales, K.S.; Zeng, Y.; Perkins, D.M.; Powers, P.; Rezaeian, S.; Luco, N.; Olsen, A.; Williams, R.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps are revised every six years, corresponding with the update cycle of the International Building Code. These maps cover the conterminous U.S. and will be updated in 2014 using the best-available science that is obtained from colleagues at regional and topical workshops, which are convened in 2012-2013. Maps for Alaska and Hawaii will be updated shortly following this update. Alternative seismic hazard models discussed at the workshops will be implemented in a logic tree framework and will be used to develop the seismic hazard maps and associated products. In this paper we describe the plan to update the hazard maps, the issues raised in workshops up to March 2012, and topics that will be discussed at future workshops. An advisory panel will guide the development of the hazard maps and ensure that the maps are acceptable to a broad segment of the science and engineering communities. These updated maps will then be considered by end-users for inclusion in building codes, risk models, and public policy documents.

  6. St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

    2016-01-01

    We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated

  7. Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Shedlock

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings. The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

  8. Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

  9. Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

    2016-04-01

    The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the

  10. Seismic hazard maps for earthquake-resistant construction designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkawa, Izuru

    2004-01-01

    Based on the idea that seismic phenomena in Japan varying in different localities are to be reflected in designing specific nuclear facilities in specific site, the present research program started to make seismic hazard maps representing geographical distribution of seismic load factors. First, recent research data on historical earthquakes and materials on active faults in Japan have been documented. Differences in character due to different localities are expressed by dynamic load in consideration of specific building properties. Next, hazard evaluation corresponding to seismic-resistance factor is given as response index (spectrum) of an adequately selected building, for example a nuclear power station, with the help of investigation results of statistical analysis. (S. Ohno)

  11. Seismic Hazard Maps for the Maltese Archipelago: Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Galea, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Maltese islands form an archipelago of three major islands lying in the Sicily channel at about 140 km south of Sicily and 300 km north of Libya. So far very few investigations have been carried out on seismicity around the Maltese islands and no maps of seismic hazard for the archipelago are available. Assessing the seismic hazard for the region is currently of prime interest for the near-future development of industrial and touristic facilities as well as for urban expansion. A culture of seismic risk awareness has never really been developed in the country, and the public perception is that the islands are relatively safe, and that any earthquake phenomena are mild and infrequent. However, the Archipelago has been struck by several moderate/large events. Although recent constructions of a certain structural and strategic importance have been built according to high engineering standards, the same probably cannot be said for all residential buildings, many higher than 3 storeys, which have mushroomed rapidly in recent years. Such buildings are mostly of unreinforced masonry, with heavy concrete floor slabs, which are known to be highly vulnerable to even moderate ground shaking. We can surely state that in this context planning and design should be based on available national hazard maps. Unfortunately, these kinds of maps are not available for the Maltese islands. In this paper we attempt to compute a first and preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Maltese islands in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at different periods. Seismic hazard has been computed using the Esteva-Cornell (1968) approach which is the most widely utilized probabilistic method. It is a zone-dependent approach: seismotectonic and geological data are used coupled with earthquake catalogues to identify seismogenic zones within which earthquakes occur at certain rates. Therefore the earthquake catalogues can be reduced to the

  12. Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Kevin; Ullah, Shahid; Parolai, Stefano; Walker, Richard; Pittore, Massimiliano; Free, Matthew; Fourniadis, Yannis; Villiani, Manuela; Sousa, Luis; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    As part of a seismic risk study sponsored by the World Bank, a revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic has been produced, using the OpenQuake-engine developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). In this project, an earthquake catalogue spanning a period from 250 BCE to 2014 was compiled and processed through spatial and temporal declustering tools. The territory of the Kyrgyz Republic was divided into 31 area sources defined based on local seismicity, including a total area covering 200 km from the border. The results are presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). In addition, macroseismic intensity estimates, making use of recent intensity prediction equations, were also provided, given that this measure is still widely used in Central Asia. In order to accommodate the associated epistemic uncertainty, three ground motion prediction equations were used in a logic tree structure. A set of representative earthquake scenarios were further identified based on historical data and the nature of the considered faults. The resulting hazard map, as expected, follows the country's seismicity, with the highest levels of hazard in the northeast, south and southwest of the country, with an elevated part around the centre. When considering PGA, the hazard is slightly greater for major urban centres than in previous works (e.g., Abdrakhmatov et al., 2003), although the macroseismic intensity estimates are less than previous studies, e.g., Ulomov (1999). For the scenario assessments, the examples that most affect the urban centres assessed are the Issyk Ata fault (in particular for Bishkek), the Chilik and Kemin faults (in particular Balykchy and Karakol), the Ferghana Valley fault system (in particular Osh, Jalah-Abad and Uzgen), the Oinik Djar fault (Naryn) and the central and western Talas-Ferghanafaukt (Talas). Finally, while site effects (in particular, those dependent on the upper-most geological structure) have an obvious effect on the

  13. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  14. Documentation for the Southeast Asia seismic hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Dewey, James; Luco, Nicolas; Crone, Anthony; Lidke, David; Rukstales, Kenneth

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. During the course of this project, several great earthquakes ruptured subduction zones along the southern coast of Indonesia (fig. 1) causing additional structural damage and casualties in nearby communities. Future structural damage and societal losses from large earthquakes can be mitigated by providing an advance warning of tsunamis and introducing seismic hazard provisions in building codes that allow buildings and structures to withstand strong ground shaking associated with anticipated earthquakes. The Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project was funded through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System to develop seismic hazard maps that would assist engineers in designing buildings that will resist earthquake strong ground shaking. An important objective of this project was to discuss regional hazard issues with building code officials, scientists, and engineers in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The code communities have been receptive to these discussions and are considering updating the Thailand and Indonesia building codes to incorporate new information (for example, see notes from Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit, Chulalongkorn University in Appendix A).

  15. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  16. A deterministic seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano

    2001-09-01

    A seismic hazard map of the territory of India and adjacent areas has been prepared using a deterministic approach based on the computation of synthetic seismograms complete of all main phases. The input data set consists of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogue. The synthetic seismograms have been generated by the modal summation technique. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (DMAX), maximum velocity (VMAX), and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid of 0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg. over the studied territory. The estimated values of the peak ground acceleration are compared with the observed data available for the Himalayan region and found in good agreement. Many parts of the Himalayan region have the DGA values exceeding 0.6 g. The epicentral areas of the great Assam earthquakes of 1897 and 1950 represent the maximum hazard with DGA values reaching 1.2-1.3 g. (author)

  17. Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

    2018-04-01

    Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

  18. Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.

    2015-01-01

    The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

  19. Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

    2014-05-01

    Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including

  20. SHC, Seismic Hazard Assessment for Eastern US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.; Davis, B.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SHC was developed as part of the Eastern United States (EUS) Seismic Hazard Characterization (SHC) Project to design an SHC methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains in a form suitable for probabilistic risk assessment and to apply that methodology to 69 site locations, some of them with local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analysis. SHC contains four modules which calculate the seismic hazard at a site located in a region of diffuse seismicity, where the seismicity is modeled by area sources. SHC integrates the opinions of 11 seismicity and five ground-motion experts. The PRDS model generates the discrete probability density function of the distances to the site for the various seismic source zones. These probability distributions are used by the COMAP module to generate the set of all alternative maps and the discrete probability density of the seismic zonation maps for each expert. The third module, ALEAS, uses these maps and their weights to calculate the best estimate and constant percentile hazard distribution resulting from the choice of a given seismicity expert for all ground-motion experts. This module can be used alone to perform a seismic hazard analysis as well as in conjunction with the other modules. The fourth module, COMB, combines the best- estimate and constant-percentile hazard over all seismicity experts, using the set of weights calculated by ALEAS, to produce the final probability distribution of the hazard for the site under consideration so that the hazard analysis can be performed for any location in the EUS. Local geological-site characteristics are incorporated in a generic fashion, and the data are developed in a generic manner. 2 - Method of solution: SHC uses a seismic-source approach utilizing statistical and geological evidence to define geographical regions with homogeneous Poisson activity throughout the zone, described by a

  1. Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong; Shi, Bao-Ping; Sun, Liang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismicity model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.

  2. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  3. Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

    2017-12-01

    Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

  4. Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

  5. Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

    2015-01-01

    The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

  6. Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.

    2001-01-01

    The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude

  7. Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, M.J.; Garcia fernandez, M. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifcas, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. of Earth Sciences; GSAHP Ibero-Maghreb Working Group

    1999-12-01

    The paper illustrates the contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map: for the first time, a map of regional hazard source zones is presented and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved.

  8. Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume

  9. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  10. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  11. Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nico; Wheeler, Russell L.; Williams, Robert A.; Olsen, Anna H.

    2014-01-01

    The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as many earthquake strong ground shaking data and by incorporating many additional scientific studies that indicate broader ranges of earthquake source and ground motion models. These time-independent maps are shown for 2-percent and 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for peak horizontal ground acceleration as well as 5-hertz and 1-hertz spectral accelerations with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition (760 meters per second shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m, VS30). In this report, the 2014 updated maps are compared with the 2008 version of the maps and indicate changes of plus or minus 20 percent over wide areas, with larger changes locally, caused by the modifications to the seismic source and ground motion inputs.

  12. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  13. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  14. GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

    2006-12-01

    The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility

  15. Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

  16. Geoethical and socio-political aspects of seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, quantification and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard and, more recently, tsunami hazard assessments have been undertaken in several countries of the world and globally for the whole Earth planet with the aim of providing a scientifically sound basis to the engineers, technicians, urban and industrial planners, politicians, civil protection operators and in general to the authorities for devising rational risk mitigation strategies and corresponding adequate policies. The main point of this presentation is that the chief-value of all seismic and tsunami hazard studies (including theory, concept, quantification and mapping) resides in the social and political values of the provided products, which is a standpoint entailing a number of relevant geoethical implications. The most relevant implication regards geoscientists who are the subjects mainly involved in carrying out hazard evaluations. Viewed from the classical perspective, the main ethical obligations of geoscientists are restricted to performing hazard estimations in the best possible way from a scientific point of view, which means selecting the "best" available data, adopting sound theoretical models, making use of rigorous methods… What is outlined here, is that this is an insufficient minimalistic position, since it overlooks the basic socio-political and therefore practical value of the hazard-analysis final products. In other words, if one views hazard assessment as a production process leading from data and theories (raw data and production means) to hazard maps (products), the criterion to judge whether it is good or bad needs also to include the usability factor. Seismic and tsunami hazard reports and maps are products that should be usable, which means that they should meet user needs and requirements, and therefore they should be evaluated according to how much they are clearly understandable to, and appropriate for, making-decision users. In the traditional view of a science serving the society, one could represent the interaction

  17. Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

  18. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

    2017-12-01

    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  19. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  20. Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 10 Percent Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...

  1. Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 2 Percent Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...

  2. J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

    2015-12-01

    An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

  3. Seismic hazard in the DRC and Western Rift Valley of Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mavonga, T

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic approach was used to assess the seismic hazard in Democratic Republic of Congo and surrounding areas. Seismic hazard maps were prepared using a 90-year catalogue compiled for homogeneous Ms magnitudes; the attenuation relations...

  4. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  5. Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Haller, Kathleen M.; McCaffrey, Robert; Hammond, William C.; Bird, Peter; Moschetti, Morgan; Shen, Zhengkang; Bormann, Jayne; Thatcher, Wayne

    2014-01-01

    The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

  6. GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

    2005-12-01

    The first stage of development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface (GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The first part has developed and others are developing now in this term. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within the limits of the possibility

  7. Study of modern seismic zoning maps' accuracy (case for Eastern Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.U. Artikov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched. It is found that the largest deviations, from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average values of distribution of seismic mode and seismic load parameters, may arise due to the imprecise depth of earthquake sources (H, uncertain estimations of seismic potential (Мmax and slope of recurrence curve (γ. The contribution of such uncertainty factors, like imprecise definition of seismic activity А10, incorrect choice of prevailing type of a motion in the source, using regional laws of attenuation of seismic load intensity in distance instead of local once are substantially small. For Eastern Uzbekistan, it was designed the seismic hazard map with the highest value which takes into account every possible factors of uncertainty in parameters of seismic mode and seismic load.

  8. Seismic hazard studies in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abuo El-Ela A. Mohamed

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The study of earthquake activity and seismic hazard assessment of Egypt is very important due to the great and rapid spreading of large investments in national projects, especially the nuclear power plant that will be held in the northern part of Egypt. Although Egypt is characterized by low seismicity, it has experienced occurring of damaging earthquake effect through its history. The seismotectonic sitting of Egypt suggests that large earthquakes are possible particularly along the Gulf of Aqaba–Dead Sea transform, the Subduction zone along the Hellenic and Cyprean Arcs, and the Northern Red Sea triple junction point. In addition some inland significant sources at Aswan, Dahshour, and Cairo-Suez District should be considered. The seismic hazard for Egypt is calculated utilizing a probabilistic approach (for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° within a logic-tree framework. Alternative seismogenic models and ground motion scaling relationships are selected to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard values on rock were calculated to create contour maps for four ground motion spectral periods and for different return periods. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra for rock sites for different 25 periods, and the probabilistic hazard curves for Cairo, and Alexandria cities are graphed. The peak ground acceleration (PGA values were found close to the Gulf of Aqaba and it was about 220 gal for 475 year return period. While the lowest (PGA values were detected in the western part of the western desert and it is less than 25 gal.

  9. Re-evaluation and updating of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijer, Carla; Harajli, Mohamed; Sadek, Salah

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study undertaken to evaluate the implications of the newly mapped offshore Mount Lebanon Thrust (MLT) fault system on the seismic hazard of Lebanon and the current seismic zoning and design parameters used by the local engineering community. This re-evaluation is critical, given that the MLT is located at close proximity to the major cities and economic centers of the country. The updated seismic hazard was assessed using probabilistic methods of analysis. The potential sources of seismic activities that affect Lebanon were integrated along with any/all newly established characteristics within an updated database which includes the newly mapped fault system. The earthquake recurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumental seismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken to evaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per Uniform Building Code (UBC) 1997), as well as 0.2 and 1 s peak spectral acceleration contours, based on 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per International Building Code (IBC) 2012), were also developed. Finally, spectral charts for the main coastal cities of Beirut, Tripoli, Jounieh, Byblos, Saida, and Tyre are provided for use by designers.

  10. Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

  11. Original earthquake design basis in light of recent seismic hazard studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrovski, D.

    1993-01-01

    For the purpose of conceiving the framework within which efforts have been made in the eastern countries to construct earthquake resistant nuclear power plants, a review of the development and application of the seismic zoning map of USSR is given. The normative values of seismic intensity and acceleration are discussed from the aspect of recent probabilistic seismic hazard studies. To that effect, presented briefly in this paper is the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. (author)

  12. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z. [Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung (Indonesia); Susilo,; Efendi, Joni [Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG) (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  13. SRS BEDROCK PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (PSHA) DESIGN BASIS JUSTIFICATION (U)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    (NOEMAIL), R

    2005-12-14

    This represents an assessment of the available Savannah River Site (SRS) hard-rock probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs), including PSHAs recently completed, for incorporation in the SRS seismic hazard update. The prior assessment of the SRS seismic design basis (WSRC, 1997) incorporated the results from two PSHAs that were published in 1988 and 1993. Because of the vintage of these studies, an assessment is necessary to establish the value of these PSHAs considering more recently collected data affecting seismic hazards and the availability of more recent PSHAs. This task is consistent with the Department of Energy (DOE) order, DOE O 420.1B and DOE guidance document DOE G 420.1-2. Following DOE guidance, the National Map Hazard was reviewed and incorporated in this assessment. In addition to the National Map hazard, alternative ground motion attenuation models (GMAMs) are used with the National Map source model to produce alternate hazard assessments for the SRS. These hazard assessments are the basis for the updated hard-rock hazard recommendation made in this report. The development and comparison of hazard based on the National Map models and PSHAs completed using alternate GMAMs provides increased confidence in this hazard recommendation. The alternate GMAMs are the EPRI (2004), USGS (2002) and a regional specific model (Silva et al., 2004). Weights of 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 are recommended for EPRI (2004), USGS (2002) and Silva et al. (2004) respectively. This weighting gives cluster weights of .39, .29, .15, .17 for the 1-corner, 2-corner, hybrid, and Greens-function models, respectively. This assessment is judged to be conservative as compared to WSRC (1997) and incorporates the range of prevailing expert opinion pertinent to the development of seismic hazard at the SRS. The corresponding SRS hard-rock uniform hazard spectra are greater than the design spectra developed in WSRC (1997) that were based on the LLNL (1993) and EPRI (1988) PSHAs. The

  14. Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

    1995-01-01

    When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

  15. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  16. Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

  17. Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

  18. Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

  19. Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2016-04-01

    Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition

  20. Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided ...

  1. 2014 Update of the Pacific Northwest portion of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur; Chen, Rui; Petersen, Mark; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Sherrod, Brian

    2015-01-01

    Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupture zones. These logic trees reflect recent findings of additional M8 CSZ earthquakes using offshore deposits of turbidity flows and onshore tsunami deposits and subsidence. These M8 earthquakes each rupture a portion of the CSZ and occur in the time periods between M9 earthquakes that have an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The maximum magnitude was increased for deep intraslab earthquakes. An areal source zone to account for the possibility of deep earthquakes under western Oregon was expanded. The western portion of the Tacoma fault was added to the hazard maps.

  2. Harmonizing seismic hazard assessments for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallard, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    Even a cursory comparison between maps of global seismicity and NPP earthquake design levels reveals many inconsistencies. While, in part, this situation reflects the evolution in understanding of seismic hazards, mismatches can also be due to ongoing differences in the way the hazards are assessed and in local regulatory requirements. So far, formal international consensus has only been able to encompass broad principles, such as those recently recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and even these can raise many technical issues, particularly relating to zones of diffuse seismicity. In the future, greater harmonisation in hazard assessments and, to some extent, in earthquake design levels could emerge through the more widespread use of probabilistic methods. International collaborative ventures and joint projects will be important for resolving anomalies in the existing databases and their interpretations, and for acquiring new data, but to achieve their ideal objectives, they will need to proceed in clearly defined stages. (author)

  3. Microzonation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K. S.; Lin, Y. P.

    2017-12-01

    The island of Taiwan lies at the boundary between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasia plate. Accordingly, the majority of seismic energy release near Taiwan originates from the two subduction zones. It is therefore not surprising that Taiwan has repeatedly been struck by large earthquakes such as 1986 Hualien earthquake, 1999 Chi Chi and 2002 Hualien earthquake. Microzonation of seismic hazard potential becomes necessary in Taipei City for the Central Geological Survey announced the Sanchiao active fault as Category II. In this study, a catalog of more than 2000 shallow earthquakes occurred from 1900 to 2015 with Mw magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 8.2, and 11 disastrous earthquakes occurred from 1683-1899, as well as Sanchiao active fault in the vicinity are used to estimate the seismic hazard potential in Taipei City for seismic microzonation. Furthermore, the probabilities of seismic intensity exceeding CWB intensity 5, 6, 7 and MMI VI, VII, VIII in 10, 30, and 50-year periods in the above areas are also analyzed for the seismic microzonation. Finally, by comparing with the seismic zoning map of Taiwan in current building code that was revised after 921 earthquakes, Results of this study will show which areas with higher earthquake hazard potential in Taipei City. They provide a valuable database for the seismic design of critical facilities. It will help mitigate Taipei City earthquake disaster loss in the future, as well as provide critical information for emergency response plans.

  4. Some preliminary results of a worldwide seismicity estimation: a case study of seismic hazard evaluation in South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Christova

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Global data have been widely used for seismicity and seismic hazard assessment by seismologists. In the present study we evaluate worldwide seismicity in terms of maps of maximum observed magnitude (Mmax, seismic moment (M 0 and seismic moment rate (M 0S. The data set used consists of a complete and homogeneous global catalogue of shallow (h £ 60 km earthquakes of magnitude MS ³ 5.5 for the time period 1894-1992. In order to construct maps of seismicity and seismic hazard the parameters a and b derived from the magnitude-frequency relationship were estimated by both: a the least squares, and b the maximum likelihood, methods. The values of a and b were determined considering circles centered at each grid point 1° (of a mesh 1° ´1° and of varying radius, which starts from 30 km and moves with a step of 10 km. Only a and b values which fulfill some predefined conditions were considered in the further procedure for evaluating the seismic hazard maps. The obtained worldwide M max distribution in general delineates the contours of the plate boundaries. The highest values of M max observed are along the circum-Pacific belt and in the Himalayan area. The subduction plate boundaries are characterized by the largest amount of M 0 , while areas of continental collision are next. The highest values of seismic moment rate (per 1 year and per equal area of 10 000 km 2 are found in the Southern Himalayas. The western coasts of U.S.A., Northwestern Canada and Alaska, the Indian Ocean and the eastern rift of Africa are characterized by high values of M 0 , while most of the Pacific subduction zones have lower values of seismic moment rate. Finally we analyzed the seismic hazard in South America comparing the predicted by the NUVEL1 model convergence slip rate between Nazca and South America plates with the average slip rate due to earthquakes. This consideration allows for distinguishing between zones of high and low coupling along the studied convergence

  5. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  6. A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

    2015-12-01

    Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

  7. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  8. Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from

  9. An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

    2010-09-01

    The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard

  10. Seismic hazard assessment; Valutazione della pericolosita` sismica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paciello, A. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents a brief summary of the most commonly used methodologies for seismic hazard assessment. The interest is focused on the probabilistic approach, which can take into account the uncertainties of input data and provides results better comparable with those obtained from hazard analyses of other natural phenomena. Calculation methods, input data and treatment of variability are examined. Some examples of probabilistic seismic hazard maps are moreover presented. [Italiano] Questo lavoro presenta un breve sommario delle piu` comuni metodologie utilizzate per la valutazione della pericolosita` sismica di un sito. Una particolare attenzione e` rivolta all`approccio probabilistico, che permette di tener conto delle incertezze legate ai dati iniziali e fornisce risultati piu` facilmente confrontabili con quelli ottenuti da analisi di pericolosita` di altri fenomeni naturali. Vengono presi in esame i metodi di calcolo, i dati di base e il trattamento delle incertezze. Vengono inoltre presentati alcuni esempi di carte di pericolosita` sismica di tipo probabilistico.

  11. Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

  12. The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesseloo, Johan

    2018-06-01

    Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

  13. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  14. Evaluation of Seismic Hazards at California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, M. K.

    2005-12-01

    The California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) has responsibility for design, construction, and maintenance of approximately 12,000 state bridges. CALTRANS also provides oversight for similar activities for 12,200 bridges owned by local agencies throughout the state. California is subjected to a M6 or greater seismic event every few years. Recent earthquakes include the 1971 Mw6.6 San Fernando earthquake which struck north of Los Angeles and prompted engineers to begin retrofitting existing bridges and re-examine the way bridges are detailed to improve their response to earthquakes, the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake which destroyed the Cypress Freeway and damaged the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, and the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake in the Los Angeles area which heavily damaged four major freeways. Since CALTRANS' seismic performance goal is to ensure life-safety needs are met for the traveling public during an earthquake, estimating earthquake magnitude, peak bedrock acceleration, and determining if special seismic considerationsare needed at specific bridge sites are critical. CALTRANS is currently developing a fourth generation seismic hazard map to be used for estimating these parameters. A deterministic approach has been used to develop this map. Late-Quaternary-age faults are defined as the expected seismic sources. Caltrans requires site-specific studies to determine potential for liquefaction, seismically induced landslides, and surface fault rupture. If potential for one of these seismic hazards exists, the hazard is mitigated by avoidance, removal, or accommodated through design. The action taken, while complying with the Department's "no collapse" requirement, depends upon many factors, including cost.

  15. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Gentilly 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Results of this probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were determined using a suite of conservative assumptions. The intent of this study was to perform a limited hazard assessment that incorporated a range of technically defensible input parameters. To best achieve this goal, input selected for the hazard assessment tended to be conservative with respect to selection of attenuation modes, and seismicity parameters. Seismic hazard estimates at Gentilly 2 were most affected by selection of the attenuation model. Alternative definitions of seismic source zones had a relatively small impact on seismic hazard. A St. Lawrence Rift model including a maximum magnitude of 7.2 m b in the zone containing the site had little effect on the hazard estimate relative to other seismic source zonation models. Mean annual probabilities of exceeding the design peak ground acceleration, and the design response spectrum for the Gentilly 2 site were computed to lie in the range of 0.001 to 0.0001. This hazard result falls well within the range determined to be acceptable for nuclear reactor sites located throughout the eastern United States. (author) 34 refs., 6 tabs., 28 figs

  16. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Furen; Wang, Zhenming; Liu, Jingwei

    2011-03-01

    Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

  17. Seismic Hazard characterization study using an earthquake source with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in the Northern of Sumatra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, A.; Palupi, M. I. R.; Suharsono

    2016-01-01

    Sumatra region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Indonesia because it is lie on an active tectonic zone. In 2004 there is earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.2 located on the coast with the distance 160 km in the west of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and triggering a tsunami. These events take a lot of casualties and material losses, especially in the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and North Sumatra. To minimize the impact of the earthquake disaster, a fundamental assessment of the earthquake hazard in the region is needed. Stages of research include the study of literature, collection and processing of seismic data, seismic source characterization and analysis of earthquake hazard by probabilistic methods (PSHA) used earthquake catalog from 1907 through 2014. The earthquake hazard represented by the value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) in the period of 0.2 and 1 second on bedrock that is presented in the form of a map with a return period of 2475 years and the earthquake hazard curves for the city of Medan and Banda Aceh. (paper)

  18. Seismic and tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, William P.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rodriguez, Rafael W.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    1999-01-01

    first day of the workshop, participants from universities, federal institutions, and consulting firms in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the continental U.S., Dominican Republic, and Europe reviewed the present state of knowledge including a review and discussion of present plate models, recent GPS and seismic reflection data, seismicity, paleoseismology, and tsunamis. The state of earthquake/tsunami studies in Puerto Rico was presented by several faculty members from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. A preliminary seismic hazard map was presented by the USGS and previous hazard maps and economic loss assessments were considered. During the second day, the participants divided into working groups and prepared specific recommendations for future activities in the region along the six following topics below. Highlights of these recommended activities are:Marine geology and geophysics – Acquire deep-penetration seismic reflection and refraction data, deploy temporary ocean bottom seismometer arrays to record earthquakes, collect high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar data of the region, and in particular, the near shore region, and conduct focussed high-resolution seismic studies around faults. Determine slip rates of specific offshore faults. Assemble a GIS database for available marine geological and geophysical data.Paleoseismology and active faults - Field reconnaissance aimed at identifying Quaternary faults and determining their paleoseismic chronology and slip rates, as well as identifying and dating paleoliquefaction features from large earthquakes. Quaternary mapping of marine terraces, fluvial terraces and basins, beach ridges, etc., to establish framework for understanding neotectonic deformation of the island. Interpretation of aerial photography to identify possible Quaternary faults.Earthquake seismology – Determine an empirical seismic attenuation function using observations from local seismic networks and recently

  19. Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet

    2009-01-01

    In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

  20. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  1. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

  2. Eastern US seismic hazard characterization update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.B.; Boissonnade, A.C.; Mensing, R.W.; Short, C.M.

    1993-06-01

    In January 1989, LLNL published the results of a multi-year project, funded by NRC, on estimating seismic hazard at nuclear plant sites east of the Rockies. The goal of this study was twofold: to develop a good central estimate (median) of the seismic hazard and to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates of this hazard. In 1989, LLNL was asked by DOE to develop site specific estimates of the seismic hazard at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina as part of the New Production Reactor (NPR) project. For the purpose of the NPR, a complete review of the methodology and of the data acquisition process was performed. Work done under the NPR project has shown that first order improvement in the estimates of the uncertainty (i.e., lower mean hazard values) could be easily achieved by updating the modeling of the seismicity and ground motion attenuation uncertainty. To this effect, NRC sponsored LLNL to perform a reelicitation to update the seismicity and ground motion experts' inputs and to revise methods to combine seismicity and ground motion inputs in the seismic hazard analysis for nuclear power plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains. The objective of the recent study was to include the first order improvements that reflect the latest knowledge in seismicity and ground motion modeling and produce an update of all the hazard results produced in the 1989 study. In particular, it had been demonstrated that eliciting seismicity information in terms of rates of earthquakes rather than a- and b-values, and changing the elicitation format to a one-on-one interview, improved our ability to express the uncertainty of earthquake rates of occurrence at large magnitudes. Thus, NRC sponsored this update study to refine the model of uncertainty, and to re-elicitate of the experts' interpretations of the zonation and seismicity, as well as to reelicitate the ground motion models, based on current state of knowledge

  3. Seismic Hazard Management in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintergerst, L.

    2007-05-01

    Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world. More than 8.5 million residents and 4.5 million floating population are in the city itself, but with the surrounding suburbs the number of people that could be affected by natural and man-made hazards rises to approximately 20 million. The main risk to the city as a whole is a large magnitude earthquake. Since there is reason to prepare for a credible seismic scenario of Mw = 8.2, which would exceed the damages caused during the 1985 earthquake (Mw = 8.1), we founded the Metropolitan Geologic Service (MGS) in 1998. The MGS has developed geologic and seismic hazard maps for the city (http:www.proteccioncivil.df.gob.mx). The maps include three separate risk maps for low height (3 stories), medium height (10 stories) and tall buildings (10 stories). The maps were prepared by using the maximum horizontal accelerations documented during the 1985 earthquake, and wave propagation modeling for buildings of different resonant periods (T = 0.0, 1.0 and 2.0 sec). In all cases, the risk zones were adjusted to include documented damage during the 1957, 1979 and 1985 earthquakes. All three maps show a high risk zone in the north-central portion of the city, elongated in a N-S direction, which corresponds with a narrow graben where the thickness of alluvial sediments is particularly large, and where wave amplification is accentuated. Preparation of these maps, and others used for planning, has been facilitated by the ongoing elaboration of a Dynamic Geographical Information System, which is based on geo-scientific information, includes all types of risks, and incorporates vulnerability models. From the risk management standpoint, we have elaborated the Permanent Contingency Plan for Mexico City, which in its Earthquakes chapter includes plans for coordination and for organizing attention to the population in the event of a seismic disaster. This Permanent Plan follows the philosophy of Descartes' Method, has 11 processes (6

  4. Development of seismic hazard analysis in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, T.; Ishii, K.; Ishikawa, Y.; Okumura, T.

    1987-01-01

    In recent years, seismic risk assessment of the nuclear power plant have been conducted increasingly in various countries, particularly in the United States to evaluate probabilistically the safety of existing plants under earthquake loading. The first step of the seismic risk assessment is the seismic hazard analysis, in which the relationship between the maximum earthquake ground motions at the plant site and their annual probability of exceedance, i.e. the seismic hazard curve, is estimated. In this paper, seismic hazard curves are evaluated and examined based on historical earthquake records model, in which seismic sources are modeled with area-sources, for several different sites in Japan. A new evaluation method is also proposed to compute the response spectra of the earthquake ground motions in connection with estimating the probabilistic structural response. Finally the numerical result of probabilistic risk assessment for a base-isolated three story RC structure, in which the frequency of seismic induced structural failure is evaluated combining the seismic hazard analysis, is described briefly

  5. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  6. Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

    2007-10-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

  7. Catalogue of European earthquakes and an atlas of European seismic maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gils, J.M.

    1988-01-01

    The Catalogue of European earthquakes and an atlas of European seismic maps has been prepared in the framework of the activities of the CEC Working Group on the safety of ligh-water reactors. Seismic hazards are considered to be an important element of possible external accidents to be taken into account in the design, construction, and operation of nuclear power plants. The report relies on the data base available, the historical as well as the present-day data. After a short historical review, actually-used intensity scales are discussed. The scale applied in European countries and the one proposed in the United States of America are compared. The different seismic maps of interest are explained and a mathematical procedure presented which allows, under certain conditions, to draw seismic maps by computer facilities

  8. France's seismic zoning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1997-01-01

    In order to assess the seismic hazard in France in relation to nuclear plant siting, the CEA, EDF and the BRGM (Mine and Geology Bureau) have carried out a collaboration which resulted in a seismic-tectonic map of France and a data base on seismic history (SIRENE). These studies were completed with a seismic-tectonic zoning, taking into account a very long period of time, that enabled a probabilistic evaluation of the seismic hazard in France, and that may be related to adjacent country hazard maps

  9. Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertito, Vincenzo; Zollo, Aldo

    2011-08-01

    In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982-1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.

  10. Use of raster-based data layers to model spatial variation of seismotectonic data in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R.

    2009-07-01

    Recent achievements in computer and information technology have provided the necessary tools to extend the application of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping from its traditional engineering use to many other applications. Examples for such applications are risk mitigation, disaster management, post disaster recovery planning and catastrophe loss estimation and risk management. Due to the lack of proper knowledge with regard to factors controlling seismic hazards, there are always uncertainties associated with all steps involved in developing and using seismic hazard models. While some of these uncertainties can be controlled by more accurate and reliable input data, the majority of the data and assumptions used in seismic hazard studies remain with high uncertainties that contribute to the uncertainty of the final results. In this paper a new methodology for the assessment of seismic hazard is described. The proposed approach provides practical facility for better capture of spatial variations of seismological and tectonic characteristics, which allows better treatment of their uncertainties. In the proposed approach, GIS raster-based data models are used in order to model geographical features in a cell-based system. The cell-based source model proposed in this paper provides a framework for implementing many geographically referenced seismotectonic factors into seismic hazard modelling. Examples for such components are seismic source boundaries, rupture geometry, seismic activity rate, focal depth and the choice of attenuation functions. The proposed methodology provides improvements in several aspects of the standard analytical tools currently being used for assessment and mapping of regional seismic hazard. The proposed methodology makes the best use of the recent advancements in computer technology in both software and hardware. The proposed approach is well structured to be implemented using conventional GIS tools.

  11. Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

    2009-04-01

    the slope critical acceleration (Ac)x for which a prefixed probability exists that seismic shaking would result in a Dn value equal to a threshold x whose exceedence would cause landslide triggering. The obtained ac values represent the minimum slope resistance required to keep the probability of seismic-landslide triggering within the prefixed value. In particular we calculated the spatial distribution of (Ac)x for x thresholds of 10 and 2 cm in order to represent triggering conditions for coherent slides (e.g., slumps, block slides, slow earth flows) and disrupted slides (e.g., rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches), respectively. Then we produced a probabilistic national map that shows the spatial distribution of (Ac)10 and (Ac)2, for a 10% probability of exceedence in 50 year, which is a significant level of hazard equal to that commonly used for building codes. The spatial distribution of the calculated (Ac)xvalues can be compared with the in situ actual ac values of specific slopes to estimate whether these slopes have a significant probability of failing under seismic action in the future. As example of possible application of this kind of time probabilistic map to hazard estimates, we compared the values obtained for the Manjil region with a GIS map providing spatial distribution of estimated ac values in the same region. The spatial distribution of slopes characterized by ac < (Ac)10 was then compared with the spatial distribution of the major landslides of coherent type triggered by the Manjil earthquake. This comparison provides indications on potential, problems and limits of the experimented approach for the study area. References Cornell, C.A., 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606. Del Gaudio V., Wasowski J., & Pierri P., 2003: An approach to time probabilistic evaluation of seismically-induced landslide hazard. Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 557-569. Jibson, R.W., E.L. Harp and J.A. Michael, 1998: A method for

  12. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  13. Mapping basin-wide subaquatic slope failure susceptibility as a tool to assess regional seismic and tsunami hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Michael; Hilbe, Michael; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2010-05-01

    With increasing awareness of oceanic geohazards, submarine landslides are gaining wide attention because of their catastrophic impacts on both offshore infrastructures (e.g. pipelines, cables and platforms) and coastal areas (e.g. landslide-induced tsunamis). They also are of great interest because they can be directly related to primary trigger mechanisms including earthquakes, rapid sedimentation, gas release, glacial and tidal loading, wave action, or clathrate dissociation, many of which represent potential geohazards themselves. In active tectonic environments, for instance, subaquatic landslide deposits can be used to make inferences regarding the hazard derived from seismic activity. Enormous scientific and economic efforts are thus being undertaken to better determine and quantify causes and effects of natural hazards related to subaquatic landslides. In order to achieve this fundamental goal, the detailed study of past events, the assessment of their recurrence intervals and the quantitative reconstruction of magnitudes and intensities of both causal and subsequent processes and impacts are key requirements. Here we present data and results from a study using fjord-type Lake Lucerne in central Switzerland as a "model ocean" to test a new concept for the assessment of regional seismic and tsunami hazard by basin-wide mapping of critical slope stability conditions for subaquatic landslide initiation. Previously acquired high-resolution bathymetry and reflection seismic data as well as sedimentological and in situ geotechnical data, provide a comprehensive data base to investigate subaquatic landslides and related geohazards. Available data are implemented into a basin-wide slope model. In a Geographic Information System (GIS)-framework, a pseudo-static limit equilibrium infinite slope stability equation is solved for each model point representing reconstructed slope conditions at different times in the past, during which earthquake-triggered landslides

  14. First level seismic microzonation map of Chennai city – a GIS approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Ganapathy

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Chennai city is the fourth largest metropolis in India, is the focus of economic, social and cultural development and it is the capital of the State of Tamil Nadu. The city has a multi-dimensional growth in development of its infrastructures and population. The area of Chennai has experienced moderate earthquakes in the historical past. Also the Bureau of Indian Standard upgraded the seismic status of Chennai from Low Seismic Hazard (Zone II to Moderate Seismic Hazard (Zone III–(BIS: 1893 (2001. In this connection, a first level seismic microzonation map of Chennai city has been produced with a GIS platform using the themes, viz, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA, Shear wave velocity at 3 m, Geology, Ground water fluctuation and bed rock depth. The near potential seismic sources were identified from the remote-sensing study and seismo-tectonic details from published literatures. The peak ground acceleration for these seismic sources were estimated based on the attenuation relationship and the maximum PGA for Chennai is 0.176 g. The groundwater fluctuation of the city varies from 0–4 m below ground level. The depth to bedrock configuration shows trough and ridges in the bedrock topography all over the city. The seismic microzonation analysis involved grid datasets (the discrete datasets from different themes were converted to grids to compute the final seismic hazard grid through integration and weightage analysis of the source themes. The Chennai city has been classified into three broad zones, viz, High, Moderate and Low Seismic Hazard. The High seismic Hazard concentrated in a few places in the western central part of the city. The moderate hazard areas are oriented in NW-SE direction in the Western part. The southern and eastern part will have low seismic hazard. The result of the study may be used as first-hand information in selecting the appropriate earthquake resistant features in designing the forthcoming new buildings against seismic

  15. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  16. Salton Trough Post-seismic Afterslip, Viscoelastic Response, and Contribution to Regional Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.

    2012-12-01

    The El Mayor-Cucapah M7.2 April 4 2010 earthquake in Baja California may have affected accumulated hazard to Southern California cities due to loading of regional faults including the Elsinore, San Jacinto and southern San Andreas, faults which already have over a century of tectonic loading. We examine changes observed via multiple seismic and geodetic techniques, including micro seismicity and proposed seismicity-based indicators of hazard, high-quality fault models, the Plate Boundary Observatory GNSS array (with 174 stations showing post-seismic transients with greater than 1 mm amplitude), and interferometric radar maps from UAVSAR (aircraft) flights, showing a network of aseismic fault slip events at distances up to 60 km from the end of the surface rupture. Finite element modeling is used to compute the expected coseismic motions at GPS stations with general agreement, including coseismic uplift at sites ~200 km north of the rupture. Postseismic response is also compared, with GNSS and also with the CIG software "RELAX." An initial examination of hazard is made comparing micro seismicity-based metrics, fault models, and changes to coulomb stress on nearby faults using the finite element model. Comparison of seismicity with interferograms and historic earthquakes show aseismic slip occurs on fault segments that have had earthquakes in the last 70 years, while other segments show no slip at the surface but do show high triggered seismicity. UAVSAR-based estimates of fault slip can be incorporated into the finite element model to correct Coloumb stress change.

  17. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Himalayan region has undergone significant development and to ensure safe and secure progress in such a seismically vulnerable region there is a need for hazard assessment. For seismic hazard assessment, it is important to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the seismicity data collected from ...

  18. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  19. New Evaluation of Seismic Hazard in Cental America and la Hispaniola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benito, B.; Camacho, E. I.; Rojas, W.; Climent, A.; Alvarado-Induni, G.; Marroquin, G.; Molina, E.; Talavera, E.; Belizaire, D.; Pierristal, G.; Torres, Y.; Huerfano, V.; Polanco, E.; García, R.; Zevallos, F.

    2013-05-01

    The results from seismic hazard studies carried out in two seismic scenarios, Central America Region (CA) and La Hispaniola Island, are presented here. Both cases follow the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology and they are developed in terms of PGA, and SA (T), for T of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. In both anaysis, hybrid zonation models are considered, integrated by seismogenic zones and faults where data of slip rate and recurrence time are available. First, we present a new evaluation of seismic hazard in CA, starting with the results of a previous study by Benito et al (2011). Some improvements are now included, such as: updated catalogue till 2011, corrections in the zonning model in particular for subduction regime taken into account the variation of the dip in Costa Rica and Panama, and modelization of some faults as independent units for the hazard estimation. The results allow us to carry out a sensitivity analysis comparing the ones obtained with and without faults. In a second part we present the results of the PSHA in La Hispaniola, carried out as part of the cooperative project SISMO-HAITI supported by UPM and developed in cooperation with ONEV. It started a few months after the 2010 event, as an answer to a required help from the Haitian government to UPM. The study was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes and started with the elaboration of a seismic catalogue for the Hispaniola, requiring an exhaustive revision of data reported by around 30 seismic agencies, apart from these from Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic Seismic Networks. Seismotectonic models for the region were reviewed and a new regional zonation was proposed, taking into account different geophysical data. Attenuation models for subduction and crustal zones were also reviewed and the more suitable were calibrated with data recorded inside the Caribbean plate. As a result of the PSHA, different maps were generated for the quoted parameters

  20. The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme

  1. Evaluation of potential surface rupture and review of current seismic hazards program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This report summarizes the authors review and evaluation of the existing seismic hazards program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The report recommends that the original program be augmented with a probabilistic analysis of seismic hazards involving assignment of weighted probabilities of occurrence to all potential sources. This approach yields a more realistic evaluation of the likelihood of large earthquake occurrence particularly in regions where seismic sources may have recurrent intervals of several thousand years or more. The report reviews the locations and geomorphic expressions of identified fault lines along with the known displacements of these faults and last know occurrence of seismic activity. Faults are mapped and categorized into by their potential for actual movement. Based on geologic site characterization, recommendations are made for increased seismic monitoring; age-dating studies of faults and geomorphic features; increased use of remote sensing and aerial photography for surface mapping of faults; the development of a landslide susceptibility map; and to develop seismic design standards for all existing and proposed facilities at LANL

  2. Project of Near-Real-Time Generation of ShakeMaps and a New Hazard Map in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yan; Weginger, Stefan; Horn, Nikolaus; Hausmann, Helmut; Lenhardt, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    Target-orientated prevention and effective crisis management can reduce or avoid damage and save lives in case of a strong earthquake. To achieve this goal, a project for automatic generated ShakeMaps (maps of ground motion and shaking intensity) and updating the Austrian hazard map was started at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) in 2015. The first goal of the project is set for a near-real-time generation of ShakeMaps following strong earthquakes in Austria to provide rapid, accurate and official information to support the governmental crisis management. Using newly developed methods and software by SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) and GEM (Global Earthquake Model), which allows a transnational analysis at European level, a new generation of Austrian hazard maps will be ultimately calculated. More information and a status of our project will be given by this presentation.

  3. Seismic hazard analysis of Sinop province, Turkey using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1997-01-11

    Jan 11, 1997 ... 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on ... Considering the development and improvement ... It is one of the most populated cities in the coun- ... done as reliably as the seismic hazard of region per- .... Seismic safety work of underground networks was.

  4. Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Khaista; Burton, Paul W.; Weatherill, Graeme A.

    2018-05-01

    A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N-39° N; 59° E-80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.

  5. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  6. Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

  7. Lower bound earthquake magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study that develops an engineering and seismological basis for selecting a lower-bound magnitude (LBM) for use in seismic hazard assessment. As part of a seismic hazard analysis the range of earthquake magnitudes that are included in the assessment of the probability of exceedance of ground motion must be defined. The upper-bound magnitude is established by earth science experts based on their interpretation of the maximum size of earthquakes that can be generated by a seismic source. The lower-bound or smallest earthquake that is considered in the analysis must also be specified. The LBM limits the earthquakes that are considered in assessing the probability that specified ground motion levels are exceeded. In the past there has not been a direct consideration of the appropriate LBM value that should be used in a seismic hazard assessment. This study specifically looks at the selection of a LBM for use in seismic hazard analyses that are input to the evaluation/design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Topics addressed in the evaluation of a LBM are earthquake experience data at heavy industrial facilities, engineering characteristics of ground motions associated with small-magnitude earthquakes, probabilistic seismic risk assessments (seismic PRAs), and seismic margin evaluations. The results of this study and the recommendations concerning a LBM for use in seismic hazard assessments are discussed. (orig.)

  8. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  9. New approach on seismic hazard isoseismal map for Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Cioflan, Carmen Ortanza; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2008-01-01

    The seismicity of Romania comes from the energy that is released by crustal earthquakes, which have a depth not more than 40 km, and by the intermediate earthquakes coming from Vrancea region (unique case in Europe) with a depth between 60 and 200 km. The authors developed the concept of 'control earthquake' and equations to obtain the banana shape of the attenuations curves of the macroseimic intensity I (along the directions defined by azimuth Az), in the case of a Vrancea earthquake at a depth 80 < x < 160 km. There were used deterministic and probabilistic approaches, linear and nonlinear ones. The final map is in MMI intensity (isoseismal map) for maximum possible Vrancea earthquake with Richter magnitude, MGR 7.5. This will avoid any drawbacks to civil structural designers and to insurance companies which are paying all damages and life loses in function of earthquake intensity. (authors)

  10. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  11. Tsunami hazard maps of spanish coast at national scale from seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; González, Mauricio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Tsunamis are a moderately frequent phenomenon in the NEAM (North East Atlantic and Mediterranean) region, and consequently in Spain, as historic and recent events have affected this area. I.e., the 1755 earthquake and tsunami affected the Spanish Atlantic coasts of Huelva and Cadiz and the 2003 Boumerdés earthquake triggered a tsunami that reached Balearic island coast in less than 45 minutes. The risk in Spain is real and, its population and tourism rate makes it vulnerable to this kind of catastrophic events. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in Japan in 2011 launched the worldwide development and application of tsunami risk reduction measures that have been taken as a priority in this field. On November 20th 2015 the directive of the Spanish civil protection agency on planning under the emergency of tsunami was presented. As part of the Spanish National Security strategy, this document specifies the structure of the action plans at different levels: National, regional and local. In this sense, the first step is the proper evaluation of the tsunami hazard at National scale. This work deals with the assessment of the tsunami hazard in Spain, by means of numerical simulations, focused on the elaboration of tsunami hazard maps at National scale. To get this, following a deterministic approach, the seismic structures whose earthquakes could generate the worst tsunamis affecting the coast of Spain have been compiled and characterized. These worst sources have been propagated numerically along a reconstructed bathymetry, built from the best resolution available data. This high-resolution bathymetry was joined with a 25-m resolution DTM, to generate continuous offshore-onshore space, allowing the calculation of the flooded areas prompted by each selected source. The numerical model applied for the calculation of the tsunami propagations was COMCOT. The maps resulting from the numerical simulations show not only the tsunami amplitude at coastal areas but

  12. Staff technical position on investigations to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, K.I.; Blackford, M.E.; Ibrahim, A.K.

    1992-07-01

    The purpose of this Staff Technical Position (STP) is to provide guidance to the US Department of Energy (DOE) on acceptable geologic repository investigations that can be used to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards. ne staff considers that the approach this STP takes to investigations of fault displacement and seismic phenomena is appropriate for the collection of sufficient data for input to analyses of fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards, both for the preclosure and postclosure performance periods. However, detailed analyses of fault displacement and seismic data, such as those required for comprehensive assessments of repository performance, may identify the need for additional investigations. Section 2.0 of this STP describes the 10 CFR Part 60 requirements that form the basis for investigations to describe fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository. Technical position statements and corresponding discussions are presented in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, respectively. Technical position topics in this STP are categorized thusly: (1) investigation considerations, (2) investigations for fault-displacement hazards, and (3) investigations for seismic hazards

  13. Corroborating a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo from historical intensity observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, S.; Stein, R.; Toda, S.

    2006-12-01

    The long recorded history of earthquakes in Japan affords an opportunity to forecast seismic shaking exclusively from past observations of shaking. For this we analyzed 10,000 intensity observations recorded during AD 1600-2000 in a 350 x 350 km area centered on Tokyo in a Geographic Information System. A frequency-intensity curve is found for each 5 x 5 km cell, and from this the probability of exceeding any intensity level can be estimated. The principal benefits of this approach is that it builds the fewest possible assumptions into a probabilistic seismic forecast, it includes site and source effects without imposing this behavior, and we do not need to know the size or location of any earthquake or the location and slip rate of any fault. The cost is that we must abandon any attempt to make a time-dependent forecast, which could be quite different. We believe the method is suitable to many applications of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and to other regions. The two key assumptions are that the slope of the observed frequency-intensity relation at every site is the same, and that the 400-year record is long enough to encompass the full range of seismic behavior. Tests we conduct suggest that both assumptions are sound. The resulting 30-year probability of IJMA>=6 shaking (roughly equivalent to PGA>=0.9 g or MMI=IX-X) is 30-40% in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama, and 10-15% in Chiba and Tsukuba, the range reflecting spatial variability and curve-fitting alternatives. The strongest shaking is forecast along the margins of Tokyo Bay, within the river sediments extending northwest from Tokyo, and at coastal sites near the plate boundary faults. We also produce long- term exceedance maps of peak ground acceleration for building code regulations, and short-term hazard maps associated with hypothetical catastrophe bonds. Our results for greater Tokyo resemble our independent Poisson probability developed from conventional seismic hazard analysis, as well as

  14. Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

  15. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

  16. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onur, Tuna [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gok, Rengin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abdulnaby, Wathiq [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shakir, Ammar M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mahdi, Hanan [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Numan, Nazar M.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Al-Shukri, Haydar [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chlaib, Hussein K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ameen, Taher H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abd, Najah A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-05-06

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

  17. Innovative assesment of the seismic hazard from Vrancea sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, Giuliano Francesco

    2002-01-01

    In the framework of a very fruitful, stimulating and still ongoing collaboration between the National Institute for Earth Physics - Bucharest, the Department of Earth Sciences - University of Trieste and The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics - SAND Group, several innovative steps forwards have been made in the assessment of the seismic hazard generated by Vrancea seismicity. The limits of currently applied probabilistic approaches are partly overcome by the introduction of hazard scenarios based on the deterministic, realistic modeling of ground motion. The ongoing co-operation represents a fundamental contribution to the reliable assessment of seismic hazard, and has been recently enriched by the participation of Bulgarian scientists, who are facing, in the urban settlements close to the Romanian border, a seismic hazard similar to the one in Bucharest. (author)

  18. Seismic hazard in the Intermountain West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Kathleen; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 national seismic-hazard model for the conterminous United States incorporates new scientific results and important model adjustments. The current model includes updates to the historical catalog, which is spatially smoothed using both fixed-length and adaptive-length smoothing kernels. Fault-source characterization improved by adding faults, revising rates of activity, and incorporating new results from combined inversions of geologic and geodetic data. The update also includes a new suite of published ground motion models. Changes in probabilistic ground motion are generally less than 10% in most of the Intermountain West compared to the prior assessment, and ground-motion hazard in four Intermountain West cities illustrates the range and magnitude of change in the region. Seismic hazard at reference sites in Boise and Reno increased as much as 10%, whereas hazard in Salt Lake City decreased 5–6%. The largest change was in Las Vegas, where hazard increased 32–35%.

  19. Seismic hazard of American Samoa and neighboring South Pacific Islands--methods, data, parameters, and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Mueller, Charles S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Walling, Melanie

    2012-01-01

    American Samoa and the neighboring islands of the South Pacific lie near active tectonic-plate boundaries that host many large earthquakes which can result in strong earthquake shaking and tsunamis. To mitigate earthquake risks from future ground shaking, the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested that the U.S. Geological Survey prepare seismic hazard maps that can be applied in building-design criteria. This Open-File Report describes the data, methods, and parameters used to calculate the seismic shaking hazard as well as the output hazard maps, curves, and deaggregation (disaggregation) information needed for building design. Spectral acceleration hazard for 1 Hertz having a 2-percent probability of exceedance on a firm rock site condition (Vs30=760 meters per second) is 0.12 acceleration of gravity (1 second, 1 Hertz) and 0.32 acceleration of gravity (0.2 seconds, 5 Hertz) on American Samoa, 0.72 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 2.54 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on Tonga, 0.15 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 0.55 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on Fiji, and 0.89 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 2.77 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on the Vanuatu Islands.

  20. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

    2018-02-01

    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  1. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepp, J.C.; Price, R.A.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Klimkiewicz, G.C.; McGuire, R.K.

    1995-10-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. The format of each session involved invited presentations of relevant data followed by open presentations by participants, a general discussion focusing on the relevance of the presented information for seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario, then development of conclusions and recommendations. In the final session, the conclusions and recommendations were summarized and an open discussion was held to develop consensus. This report presents perspective summaries of the workshop technical sessions together with conclusions and recommendations prepared by the session chairs and the general chairman. 2 refs

  2. Updates to building-code maps for the 2015 NEHRP recommended seismic provisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicolas; Bachman, Robert; Crouse, C.B; Harris, James R.; Hooper, John D.; Kircher, Charles A.; Caldwell, Phillp; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2015-01-01

    With the 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) as a basis, the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) has updated the earthquake ground motion maps in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures, with partial funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Anticipated adoption of the updated maps into the American Society of Civil Engineers Minimum Design Loads for Building and Other Structures and the International Building and Residential Codes is underway. Relative to the ground motions in the prior edition of each of these documents, most of the updated values are within a ±20% change. The larger changes are, in most cases, due to the USGS NSHM updates, reasons for which are given in companion publications. In some cases, the larger changes are partly due to a BSSC update of the slope of the fragility curve that is used to calculate the risk-targeted ground motions, and/or the introduction by BSSC of a quantitative definition of “active faults” used to calculate deterministic ground motions.

  3. Seismic hazard analysis of the NPP Kozloduy site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrovski, D.; Stamatovska, S.; Arsovski, M.; Hadzievski, D.; Sokerova, D.; Solakov, D.; Vaptzarov, I.; Satchanski, S.

    1993-01-01

    The principal objective of this study is to define the seismic hazard for the NPP Kozloduy site. Seismic hazard is by rule defined by the probability distribution function of the peak value of the chosen ground motion parameter in a defined time interval. The overall study methodology consists of reviewing the existing geological, seismological and tectonic information to formulate this information into a mathematical model of seismic activity of the region and using this assess earthquake ground motion in terms of probability. Detailed regional and local seismological investigations have been performed. Regional investigations encompass the area within a radius of 320 km from the NPP Kozloduy site. The results of these investigations include all seismological parameters that are necessary for determination of the mathematical model of the seismicity of the region needed for the seismic hazard analysis. Regional geological and neotectonic investigations were also performed for the wider area including almost the whole territory of Bulgaria, a large part of Serbia, part of Macedonia and almost the whole south part of Romania

  4. Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

    2016-01-01

    In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake. (paper)

  5. Development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for international sites, challenges and guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez Ares, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.fernandez@rizzoassoc.com [Paul C. Rizzo Associates, Inc., 500 Penn Center Boulevard, Penn Center East, Suite 100, Pittsburgh, PA 15235 (United States); Fatehi, Ali, E-mail: ali.fatehi@rizzoassoc.com [Paul C. Rizzo Associates, Inc., 500 Penn Center Boulevard, Penn Center East, Suite 100, Pittsburgh, PA 15235 (United States)

    2013-06-15

    Research highlights: ► Site-specific seismic hazard study and suggestions for overcoming those challenges that are inherent to the significant amounts of epistemic uncertainty for sites at remote locations. ► Main aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). ► Regional and site geology in the context of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), including state-of-the-art ground motion estimation methods, and geophysical conditions. ► Senior seismic hazard analysis (SSHAC) as a mean to incorporate the opinions and contributions of the informed scientific community. -- Abstract: This article provides guidance to conduct a site-specific seismic hazard study, giving suggestions for overcoming those challenges that are inherent to the significant amounts of epistemic uncertainty for sites at remote locations. The text follows the general process of a seismic hazard study, describing both the deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Key and controversial items are identified in the areas of recorded seismicity, seismic sources, magnitude, ground motion models, and local site effects. A case history corresponding to a seismic hazard study in the Middle East for a Greenfield site in a remote location is incorporated along the development of the recommendations. Other examples of analysis case histories throughout the World are presented as well.

  6. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

    2018-02-01

    Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

  7. Seismic hazards and land-use planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Donald R.; Buchanan-Banks, Jane M.

    1974-01-01

    Basic earth-science data are necessary for a realistic assessment of seismic hazards and as a basis for limiting corrective land-use controls only to those areas of greatest hazard. For example, the location, character, and amount of likely displacement and activity of surface faulting can be predicted if detailed geologic maps and seismic data are available and are augmented by field studies at critical localities. Because few structures can withstand displacement of their foundations, they should be located off active fault traces, the distance varying with the character of faulting, the certainty with which fault traces are known, and the importance of the structure. Recreational activities and other nonoccupancy land uses should be considered for fault zone areas where land is under pressure for development; elsewhere, such areas should remain as open space. Two methods of predicting ground shaking effects have applications to land-use decisions: (1) Relative earthquake effects can be related to firmness of the ground and can be used in a gross way to allocate population density in the absence of more sophisticated analyses; and (2) intensity maps, based on, (a) damage from former earthquakes, or (b) a qualitative analyses of geologic units added to a design earthquake, can be helpful both for general and specific plans. Theoretical models are used with caution to predict ground motion for critical structures to be located at specific sites with unique foundation conditions. Fully adequate methods of assessing possible shaking remain to be developed. Where land-use decisions do not reflect likely ground shaking effects, stringent building codes are needed, particularly for important structures. Ground failure (landsliding, ground cracking and lurching, differential settlement, sand boils, and subsidence) commonly results from liquefaction, loss of soil strength, or compaction. Areas suspected of being most likely to fail should not be developed unless detailed

  8. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power Corp., Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada); Lavine, A. [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, California (United States); Egan, J. [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, California (United States)

    2015-09-15

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components-a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D., E-mail: dmullin@nbpower.com [New Brunswick Power Corporation, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Point Lepreau, NB (Canada); Lavine, A., E-mail: alexis.lavine@amecfw.com [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, CA (United States); Egan, J., E-mail: jegan@sageengineers.com [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, CA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components--a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  10. Approaches that use seismic hazard results to address topics of nuclear power plant seismic safety, with application to the Charleston earthquake issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; McGuire, R.K.; Toro, G.R.; Stepp, J.C.; Cornell, C.A.

    1990-01-01

    Plant seismic safety indicators include seismic hazard at the SSE (safe shut-down earthquake) acceleration, seismic margin, reliability against core damage, and reliability against offsite consequences. This work examines the key role of hazard analysis in evaluating these indicators and in making rational decisions regarding plant safety. The paper outlines approaches that use seismic hazard results as a basis for plant seismic safety evaluation and applies one of these approaches to the Charleston earthquake issue. This approach compares seismic hazard results that account for the Charleston tectonic interpretation, using the EPRI-Seismicity Owners Group (SOG) methodology, with hazard results that are consistent with historical tectonic interpretations accepted in regulation. Based on hazard results for a set of 21 eastern U.S. nuclear power plant sites, the comparison shows that no systematic 'plant-to-plant' increase in hazard accompanies the Charleston hypothesis; differences in mean hazards for the two interpretations are generally insignificant relative to current uncertainties in seismic hazard. (orig.)

  11. Seismic activity maps for the Armenian Highlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karapetyan, N.K.; Manukyan, Zh.O.

    1976-01-01

    Seismic activity maps for the periods 1952 to 1967 and 1952 to 1968 were compiled for the Armenian Highlands in order to study the spatial distribution of earthquake recurrence and to construct maps in isolines of seismic activity. Diagrams are presented illustrating such seismic activity maps for the indicated periods. 4 references, 3 figures, 1 table.

  12. The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

    2015-01-01

    New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

  13. Input for seismic hazard assessment using Vrancea seismic source region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivan, Iren-Adelina; Enescu, B.D.; Pantea, A.

    1998-01-01

    We use an extended and combined data base including historical and modern, qualitative and quantitative data, i.e., more than 25 events during the period 1790 - 1990 with epicentral/maximum intensities ranging from X to V degree (MSK scale), the variation interval of isoseismal curves ranging from IX th to III rd degree. The data set was analysed using both the sum phasor techniques of Ridelek and Sacks (1984) for different magnitudes and depth intervals and the Stepp's method. For the assessment of seismic hazard we need a pattern of seismic source regions including an estimation for the maximum expected magnitude and the return period for the studied regions. Another necessary step in seismic hazard assessment is to develop attenuation relationships specific to a seismogenic zone, particularly to sub-crustal earthquakes of Vrancea region. The conceptual frame involves the use of appropriate decay models and consideration of the randomness in the attenuation, taking into account the azimuthal variation of the isoseist shapes. (authors)

  14. A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

    2018-03-01

    The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

  15. Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

    2018-04-01

    An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

  16. Seismic hazard assessment of the Hanford region, Eastern Washington State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngs, R.R.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Power, M.S.; Swan, F.H. III

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was made for a site within the Hanford region of eastern Washington state, which is characterized as an intraplate region having a relatively low rate of seismic activity. Probabilistic procedures, such as logic trees, were utilized to account for the uncertainties in identifying and characterizing the potential seismic sources in the region. Logic trees provide a convenient, flexible means of assessing the values and relative likelihoods of input parameters to the hazard model that may be dependent upon each other. Uncertainties accounted for in this way include the tectonic model, segmentation, capability, fault geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, and earthquake recurrence rate. The computed hazard results are expressed as a distribution from which confidence levels are assessed. Analysis of the results show the contributions to the total hazard from various seismic sources and due to various earthquake magnitudes. In addition, the contributions of uncertainties in the various source parameters to the uncertainty in the computed hazard are assessed. For this study, the major contribution to uncertainty in the computed hazard are due to uncertainties in the applicable tectonic model and the earthquake recurrence rate. This analysis serves to illustrate some of the probabilistic tools that are available for conducting seismic hazard assessments and for analyzing the results of these studies. 5 references, 7 figures

  17. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

  18. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

  19. Seismicity and Seismic Hazard along the Western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Ferrão, Celia; Borges, José Fernando; Caldeira, Bento; Dib, Assia; Ousadou, Farida

    2016-04-01

    ,000) make it one of the deadliest earthquakes in history. Measured in lives lost, the 1926, 1980 and 1998 Azores earthquakes (Portugal), the 1954 and 1980 El Asnam earthquakes (North Algeria), the 1994 and 2004 Alhoceima earthquakes (North Morocco), and the 2003 Boumerdes earthquakes (North Algeria) were the worst earthquakes in the past 120 years in the study area. Hence, this region has experienced many large and damaging earthquakes. The city of Cairo (Egypt) was struck in October 1992 by an Mw 5.8 magnitude earthquake, which caused large damage. In 1935, the Syrte region in Libya experienced an M6.9 earthquake with severe damage. Generally, North Africa has experienced moderate earthquakes. However, the region remains vulnerable due to the shallow seismicity, the poor mechanical properties of its soil and local site conditions, and the consequent strength of the ground shaking. Knowing the behaviour of a seismogenic area, particularly the fault zone, will lead us to better assess the hazard and risk in and around large urban areas. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using different approaches (ex. deterministic and probabilistic) using historical and instrumental seismicity, earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, structural models and attenuation laws. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement and in terms of maximum intensity map. This research is funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) under the project ICT-UID/GEO/04683/2013. This study also was conducted within the scope of the MEDYNA FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IRSES project, WP-1: Present-day Kinematics and seismic hazards, funded by the Seventh Framework European Programme.

  20. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

    2017-12-01

    While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

  1. Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

    2017-12-01

    Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher-than-mapped

  2. Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

  3. SHEAT: a computer code for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebisawa, Katsumi; Kondo, Masaaki; Abe, Kiyoharu; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Takani, Michio.

    1994-08-01

    The SHEAT code developed at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which is one of the tasks needed for seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant. Seismic hazard is defined as an annual exceedance frequency of occurrence of earthquake ground motions at various levels of intensity at a given site. With the SHEAT code, seismic hazard is calculated by the following two steps: (1) Modeling of earthquake generation around a site. Future earthquake generation (locations, magnitudes and frequencies of postulated earthquakes) is modelled based on the historical earthquake records, active fault data and expert judgement. (2) Calculation of probabilistic seismic hazard at the site. An earthquake ground motion is calculated for each postulated earthquake using an attenuation model taking into account its standard deviation. Then the seismic hazard at the site is calculated by summing the frequencies of ground motions by all the earthquakes. This document is the user's manual of the SHEAT code. It includes: (1) Outlines of the code, which include overall concept, logical process, code structure, data file used and special characteristics of the code, (2) Functions of subprograms and analytical models in them, (3) Guidance of input and output data, and (4) Sample run results. The code has widely been used at JAERI to analyze seismic hazard at various nuclear power plant sites in japan. (author)

  4. Seismic hazard analysis. A methodology for the Eastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernreuter, D L

    1980-08-01

    This report presents a probabilistic approach for estimating the seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. The probabilistic model (Uniform Hazard Methodology) systematically incorporates the subjective opinion of several experts in the evaluation of seismic hazard. Subjective input, assumptions and associated hazard are kept separate for each expert so as to allow review and preserve diversity of opinion. The report is organized into five sections: Introduction, Methodology Comparison, Subjective Input, Uniform Hazard Methodology (UHM), and Uniform Hazard Spectrum. Section 2 Methodology Comparison, briefly describes the present approach and compares it with other available procedures. The remainder of the report focuses on the UHM. Specifically, Section 3 describes the elicitation of subjective input; Section 4 gives details of various mathematical models (earthquake source geometry, magnitude distribution, attenuation relationship) and how these models re combined to calculate seismic hazard. The lost section, Uniform Hazard Spectrum, highlights the main features of typical results. Specific results and sensitivity analyses are not presented in this report. (author)

  5. Issues in testing the new national seismic hazard model for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Brooks, E. M.; Spencer, B. D.

    2016-12-01

    It is important to bear in mind that we know little about how earthquake hazard maps actually describe the shaking that will actually occur in the future, and have no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed in the past, and, thus, whether one map performs better than another. Moreover, we should not forget that different maps can be useful for different end users, who may have different cost-and-benefit strategies. Thus, regardless of the specific tests we chose to use, the adopted testing approach should have several key features: We should assess map performance using all the available instrumental, paleo seismology, and historical intensity data. Instrumental data alone span a period much too short to capture the largest earthquakes - and thus strongest shaking - expected from most faults. We should investigate what causes systematic misfit, if any, between the longest record we have - historical intensity data available for the Italian territory from 217 B.C. to 2002 A.D. - and a given hazard map. We should compare how seismic hazard maps developed over time. How do the most recent maps for Italy compare to earlier ones? It is important to understand local divergences that show how the models are developing to the most recent one. The temporal succession of maps is important: we have to learn from previous errors. We should use the many different tests that have been proposed. All are worth trying, because different metrics of performance show different aspects of how a hazard map performs and can be used. We should compare other maps to the ones we are testing. Maps can be made using a wide variety of assumptions, which will lead to different predicted shaking. It is possible that maps derived by other approaches may perform better. Although Italian current codes are based on probabilistic maps, it is important from both a scientific and societal perspective to look at all options including deterministic scenario based ones. Comparing what works

  6. New ShakeMaps for Georgia Resulting from Collaboration with EMME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Alania, V.

    2015-12-01

    Correct assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard and risks maps are first step for advance planning and action to reduce seismic risk. Seismic hazard maps for Georgia were calculated based on modern approach that was developed in the frame of EMME (Earthquake Modl for Middle east region) project. EMME was one of GEM's successful endeavors at regional level. With EMME and GEM assistance, regional models were analyzed to identify the information and additional work needed for the preparation national hazard models. Probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSH) provides the critical bases for improved building code and construction. The most serious deficiency in PSH assessment for the territory of Georgia is the lack of high-quality ground motion data. Due to this an initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Obtained results of seismic hazard maps show evidence that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation.

  7. Reliability of lifeline networks under seismic hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selcuk, A. Sevtap; Yuecemen, M. Semih

    1999-01-01

    Lifelines, such as pipelines, transportation, communication and power transmission systems, are networks which extend spatially over large geographical regions. The quantification of the reliability (survival probability) of a lifeline under seismic threat requires attention, as the proper functioning of these systems during or after a destructive earthquake is vital. In this study, a lifeline is idealized as an equivalent network with the capacity of its elements being random and spatially correlated and a comprehensive probabilistic model for the assessment of the reliability of lifelines under earthquake loads is developed. The seismic hazard that the network is exposed to is described by a probability distribution derived by using the past earthquake occurrence data. The seismic hazard analysis is based on the 'classical' seismic hazard analysis model with some modifications. An efficient algorithm developed by Yoo and Deo (Yoo YB, Deo N. A comparison of algorithms for terminal pair reliability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1988; 37: 210-215) is utilized for the evaluation of the network reliability. This algorithm eliminates the CPU time and memory capacity problems for large networks. A comprehensive computer program, called LIFEPACK is coded in Fortran language in order to carry out the numerical computations. Two detailed case studies are presented to show the implementation of the proposed model

  8. Physical Exposure to Seismic Hazards of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, S. M.; Novelo Casanova, D.

    2010-12-01

    Although health facilities are essential infrastructure during disasters and emergencies, they are also usually highly vulnerable installations in the case of the occurrence of large and major earthquakes. Hospitals are one of the most complex critical facilities in modern cities and they are used as first response in emergency situations. The operability of a hospital must be maintained after the occurrence of a local strong earthquake in order to satisfy the need for medical care of the affected population. If a health facility is seriously damaged, it cannot fulfill its function when most is needed. In this case, hospitals become a casualty of the disaster. To identify the level of physical exposure of hospitals to seismic hazards in Mexico City, we analyzed their geographic location with respect to the seismic response of the different type of soils of the city from past earthquakes, mainly from the events that occurred on September 1985 (Ms= 8.0) and April 1989 (Ms= 6.9). Seismic wave amplification in this city is the result of the interaction of the incoming seismic waves with the soft and water saturated clay soils, on which a large part of Mexico City is built. The clay soils are remnants of the lake that existed in the Valley of Mexico and which has been drained gradually to accommodate the growing urban sprawl. Hospital facilities were converted from a simple database of names and locations into a map layer of resources. This resource layer was combined with other map layers showing areas of seismic microzonation in Mexico City. This overlay was then used to identify those hospitals that may be threatened by the occurrence of a large or major seismic event. We analyzed the public and private hospitals considered as main health facilities. Our results indicate that more than 50% of the hospitals are highly exposed to seismic hazards. Besides, in most of these health facilities we identified the lack of preventive measures and preparedness to reduce their

  9. Evaluation of seismic hazards for nuclear power plants. Safety guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The main objective of this Safety Guide is to provide recommendations on how to determine the ground motion hazards for a plant at a particular site and the potential for surface faulting, which could affect the feasibility of construction and safe operation of a plant at that site. The guidelines and procedures presented in this Safety Guide can appropriately be used in evaluations of site suitability and seismic hazards for nuclear power plants in any seismotectonic environment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis recommended in this Safety Guide also addresses the needs for seismic hazard analysis of external event PSAs conducted for nuclear power plants. Many of the methods and processes described may also be applicable to nuclear facilities other than power plants. Other phenomena of permanent ground displacement (liquefaction, slope instability, subsidence and collapse) as well as the topic of seismically induced flooding are treated in Safety Guides relating to foundation safety and coastal flooding. Recommendations of a general nature are given in Section 2. Section 3 discusses the acquisition of a database containing the information needed to evaluate and address all hazards associated with earthquakes. Section 4 covers the use of this database for construction of a seismotectonic model. Sections 5 and 6 review ground motion hazards and evaluations of the potential for surface faulting, respectively. Section 7 addresses quality assurance in the evaluation of seismic hazards for nuclear power plants

  10. Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

    2018-03-01

    A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

  11. Seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Luco, Nicholas; Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2012-01-01

    We present the results of a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The Mariana island arc has formed in response to northwestward subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine Sea plate, and this process controls seismic activity in the region. Historical seismicity, the Mariana megathrust, and two crustal faults on Guam were modeled as seismic sources, and ground motions were estimated by using published relations for a firm-rock site condition. Maps of peak ground acceleration, 0.2-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping were computed for exceedance probabilities of 2 percent and 10 percent in 50 years. For 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.94 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.57 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 2.86 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 1.75 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.61 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.37 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. For 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.49 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.29 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 1.43 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.83 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.30 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.18 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. The dominant hazard source at the islands is upper Benioff-zone seismicity (depth 40–160 kilometers). The large probabilistic ground motions reflect the strong concentrations of this activity below the arc, especially near Guam.

  12. Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Thomas C.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Toda, Shinji

    2012-01-01

    In a recent Opinion piece in these pages, Stein et al. (2011) offer a remarkable indictment of the methods, models, and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal object of their concern is the PSHA map for Japan released by the Japan Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), which is reproduced by Stein et al. (2011) as their Figure 1 and also here as our Figure 1. It shows the probability of exceedance (also referred to as the “hazard”) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity 6–lower (JMA 6–) in Japan for the 30-year period beginning in January 2010. JMA 6– is an earthquake-damage intensity measure that is associated with fairly strong ground motion that can be damaging to well-built structures and is potentially destructive to poor construction (HERP, 2005, appendix 5). Reiterating Geller (2011, p. 408), Stein et al. (2011, p. 623) have this to say about Figure 1: The regions assessed as most dangerous are the zones of three hypothetical “scenario earthquakes” (Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai; see map). However, since 1979, earthquakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned a relatively low probability. This discrepancy—the latest in a string of negative results for the characteristic model and its cousin the seismic-gap model—strongly suggest that the hazard map and the methods used to produce it are flawed and should be discarded. Given the central role that PSHA now plays in seismic risk analysis, performance-based engineering, and design-basis ground motions, discarding PSHA would have important consequences. We are not persuaded by the arguments of Geller (2011) and Stein et al. (2011) for doing so because important misunderstandings about PSHA seem to have conditioned them. In the quotation above, for example, they have confused important differences between earthquake-occurrence observations and ground-motion hazard calculations.

  13. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods.

  14. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods

  15. Mine aftershocks and implications for seismic hazard assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kgarume, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A methodology of assessing the seismic hazard associated with aftershocks is developed by performing statistical and deterministic analysis of seismic data from two South African deep-level gold mines. A method employing stacking of aftershocks...

  16. Seismic hazard in Romania associated to Vrancea subcrustal source Deterministic evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Radulian, M; Moldoveanu, C L; Panza, G F; Vaccari, F

    2002-01-01

    Our study presents an application of the deterministic approach to the particular case of Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes to show how efficient the numerical synthesis is in predicting realistic ground motion, and how some striking peculiarities of the observed intensity maps are properly reproduced. The deterministic approach proposed by Costa et al. (1993) is particularly useful to compute seismic hazard in Romania, where the most destructive effects are caused by the intermediate-depth earthquakes generated in the Vrancea region. Vrancea is unique among the seismic sources of the World because of its striking peculiarities: the extreme concentration of seismicity with a remarkable invariance of the foci distribution, the unusually high rate of strong shocks (an average frequency of 3 events with magnitude greater than 7 per century) inside an exceptionally narrow focal volume, the predominance of a reverse faulting mechanism with the T-axis almost vertical and the P-axis almost horizontal and the mo...

  17. Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dunand

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

  18. The revaluation of the macroseismic effects of March 4, 1977 earthquake in the frame of the new seismic hazard assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantea, A.; Constantin, Angela; Anghel, M.

    2002-01-01

    parameters; 2. Investigating the laws of intensity attenuation in terms of earthquake magnitudes, focal depths and mechanics, epicentral distances, and geologic structure features peculiar to a region; 3. Determining the areas of different intensities of the seismic motion; 4. Assessing seismic motion probability within the areas of intensity VII, VIII, and IX; 5. Investigating the migration of major earthquake foci within the probable seismic areas, the peculiarities of the seismic regime, and the conditions for strain concentration in the seismic areas in which strains are building up. Moreover, to assess seismic hazards, it is important to know the main structural units (whatever their sedimentary, crystalline, or eruptive nature) of the region, area, or site under investigation. Deep fractures affecting the crystalline base and its compartments have been revealed in the Alpine-Carpathian folding areas. In a few cases, these fractures have pierced through the deep structure of the mountain system, the depressions and the base of the Carpathian avanfosse, leading to a consistent image of the space distribution and compartments of the Romanian crystalline base and making it possible to correlate this deep structure information with geological surface data as well as, to a large extent, with the isoseismal maps of the major Vrancea earthquakes of March 4, 1977, August 30, 1986, May 30, 1990, and May 31, 1990, and naturally with the Seismic Zoning Map of the Romanian Territory. Moreover, a correlation can be found between the isoseismal maps of these earthquakes and the images of the regional Bouguer anomalies, those of isostatic anomalies, and those of the regional free-air anomalies [Pantea, Constantin, 2002] . The results of these correlations advocate the need for integrated geological-geophysical-seismologic studies of the territory as a background for the assessment of seismic hazards. Materials and information from these fields are therefore necessary. (authors)

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menchawi, O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Fernandez, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-30

    Fugro Consultants, Inc. (FCL) completed the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) performed for Building 332 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), near Livermore, CA. The study performed for the LLNL site includes a comprehensive review of recent information relevant to the LLNL regional tectonic setting and regional seismic sources in the vicinity of the site and development of seismic wave transmission characteristics. The Seismic Source Characterization (SSC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-02 (FCL, 2015b), and Ground Motion Characterization (GMC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-06 (FCL, 2015a) were developed in accordance with ANS/ANSI 2.29- 2008 Level 2 PSHA guidelines. The ANS/ANSI 2.29-2008 Level 2 PSHA framework is documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-05 (FCL, 2016a). The Hazard Input Document (HID) for input into the PSHA developed from the SSC and GMC is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-04 (FCL, 2016b). The site characterization used as input for development of the idealized site profiles including epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-03 (FCL, 2015c). The PSHA results are documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-07 (FCL, 2016c).

  20. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzaro, Raffaele; Barberi, Graziella; D'Amico, Salvatore; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura; Tuvè, Tiziana

    2017-11-01

    The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude-size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool - FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) - that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps

  1. Seismic hazard analysis. Application of methodology, results, and sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.L.

    1981-10-01

    As part of the Site Specific Spectra Project, this report seeks to identify the sources of and minimize uncertainty in estimates of seismic hazards in the Eastern United States. Findings are being used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a synthesis among various methods that can be used in evaluating seismic hazard at the various plants in the Eastern United States. In this volume, one of a five-volume series, we discuss the application of the probabilistic approach using expert opinion. The seismic hazard is developed at nine sites in the Central and Northeastern United States, and both individual experts' and synthesis results are obtained. We also discuss and evaluate the ground motion models used to develop the seismic hazard at the various sites, analyzing extensive sensitivity studies to determine the important parameters and the significance of uncertainty in them. Comparisons are made between probabilistic and real spectra for a number of Eastern earthquakes. The uncertainty in the real spectra is examined as a function of the key earthquake source parameters. In our opinion, the single most important conclusion of this study is that the use of expert opinion to supplement the sparse data available on Eastern United States earthquakes is a viable approach for determining estimated seismic hazard in this region of the country. (author)

  2. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

  3. The earthquake of January 13, 1915 and the seismic hazard of the area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarascia Mugnozza, Gabriele; Hailemikael, Salomon; Martini, Guido

    2015-01-01

    The January 13, 1915, magnitude 7.0 Marsica Earthquake devastated the Fucino basin and surroundings, causing about 30,000 casualties and entirely destroying several towns, among which the major municipality of the area, the town of Avezzano. In this paper, we briefly review the main characteristics of the earthquake and its effects on the environment. Furthermore, based on the Italian building code and ongoing seismic microzonation investigations, we describe the seismic hazard of the area struck by the earthquake in terms of both probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and contribution of site effects on the seismic hazard estimate. All the studies confirm the very high level of seismic hazard of the Fucino territory [it

  4. Neural net generated seismic facies map and attribute facies map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addy, S.K.; Neri, P.

    1998-01-01

    The usefulness of 'seismic facies maps' in the analysis of an Upper Wilcox channel system in a 3-D survey shot by CGG in 1995 in Lavaca county in south Texas was discussed. A neural net-generated seismic facies map is a quick hydrocarbon exploration tool that can be applied regionally as well as on a prospect scale. The new technology is used to classify a constant interval parallel to a horizon in a 3-D seismic volume based on the shape of the wiggle traces using a neural network technology. The tool makes it possible to interpret sedimentary features of a petroleum deposit. The same technology can be used in regional mapping by making 'attribute facies maps' in which various forms of amplitude attributes, phase attributes or frequency attributes can be used

  5. Using CyberShake Workflows to Manage Big Seismic Hazard Data on Large-Scale Open-Science HPC Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Juve, G.; Vahi, K.; Deelman, E.; Jordan, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    The CyberShake computational platform, developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), is an integrated collection of scientific software and middleware that performs 3D physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Southern California. CyberShake integrates large-scale and high-throughput research codes to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for individual locations of interest and hazard maps for an entire region. A recent CyberShake calculation produced about 500,000 two-component seismograms for each of 336 locations, resulting in over 300 million synthetic seismograms in a Los Angeles-area probabilistic seismic hazard model. CyberShake calculations require a series of scientific software programs. Early computational stages produce data used as inputs by later stages, so we describe CyberShake calculations using a workflow definition language. Scientific workflow tools automate and manage the input and output data and enable remote job execution on large-scale HPC systems. To satisfy the requests of broad impact users of CyberShake data, such as seismologists, utility companies, and building code engineers, we successfully completed CyberShake Study 15.4 in April and May 2015, calculating a 1 Hz urban seismic hazard map for Los Angeles. We distributed the calculation between the NSF Track 1 system NCSA Blue Waters, the DOE Leadership-class system OLCF Titan, and USC's Center for High Performance Computing. This study ran for over 5 weeks, burning about 1.1 million node-hours and producing over half a petabyte of data. The CyberShake Study 15.4 results doubled the maximum simulated seismic frequency from 0.5 Hz to 1.0 Hz as compared to previous studies, representing a factor of 16 increase in computational complexity. We will describe how our workflow tools supported splitting the calculation across multiple systems. We will explain how we modified CyberShake software components, including GPU implementations and

  6. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the two layer fault system of Antalya (SW Turkey) area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dipova, Nihat; Cangir, Bülent

    2017-09-01

    Southwest Turkey, along Mediterranean coast, is prone to large earthquakes resulting from subduction of the African plate under the Eurasian plate and shallow crustal faults. Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw = 6.5 whereas that of crustal earthquakes is Mw = 6.6. Crustal earthquakes are sourced from faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. The primary goal of this study is to assess seismic hazard for Antalya area (SW Turkey) using a probabilistic approach. A new earthquake catalog for Antalya area, with unified moment magnitude scale, was prepared in the scope of the study. Seismicity of the area has been evaluated by the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. For hazard computation, CRISIS2007 software was used following the standard Cornell-McGuire methodology. Attenuation model developed by Youngs et al. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):58-73, (1997) was used for deep subduction earthquakes and Chiou and Youngs Earthq Spectra 24(1):173-215, (2008) model was used for shallow crustal earthquakes. A seismic hazard map was developed for peak ground acceleration and for rock ground with a hazard level of a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Results of the study show that peak ground acceleration values on bedrock change between 0.215 and 0.23 g in the center of Antalya.

  7. Probabilistic seismic hazards: Guidelines and constraints in evaluating results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadigh, R.K.; Power, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    In conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, consideration of the dispersion as well as the upper bounds on ground motion is of great significance. In particular, the truncation of ground motion levels at some upper limit would have a major influence on the computed hazard at the low-to-very-low probability levels. Additionally, other deterministic guidelines and constraints should be considered in evaluating the probabilistic seismic hazard results. In contrast to probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations, mean plus one standard deviation ground motions are typically used for deterministic estimates of ground motions from maximum events that may affect a structure. To be consistent with standard deterministic maximum estimates of ground motions values should be the highest level considered for the site. These maximum values should be associated with the largest possible event occurring at the site. Furthermore, the relationships between the ground motion level and probability of exceedance should reflect a transition from purely probabilistic assessments of ground motion at high probability levels where there are multiple chances for events to a deterministic upper bound ground motion at very low probability levels where there is very limited opportunity for maximum events to occur. In Interplate Regions, where the seismic sources may be characterized by a high-to-very-high rate of activity, the deterministic bounds will be approached or exceeded by the computer probabilistic hazard values at annual probability of exceedance levels typically as high as 10 -2 to 10 -3 . Thus, at these or lower values probability levels, probabilistically computed hazard values could be readily interpreted in the light of the deterministic constraints

  8. Seismic hazard analysis for the NTS spent reactor fuel test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, K.W.

    1980-01-01

    An experiment is being directed at the Nevada Test Site to test the feasibility for storage of spent fuel from nuclear reactors in geologic media. As part of this project, an analysis of the earthquake hazard was prepared. This report presents the results of this seismic hazard assessment. Two distinct components of the seismic hazard were addressed: vibratory ground motion and surface displacement

  9. Current issues and related activities in seismic hazard analysis in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Jeong-Moon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jong-Rim; Chang, Chun-Joong

    1997-03-01

    This paper discusses some technical issues identified from the seismic hazard analyses for probabilistic safety assessment on the operating Korean nuclear power plants and the related activities to resolve the issues. Since there are no strong instrumental earthquake records in Korea, the seismic hazard analysis is mainly dependent on the historical earthquake records. Results of the past seismic hazard analyses show that there are many uncertainties in attenuation function and intensity level and that there is a need to improve statistical method. The identification of the activity of the Yangsan Fault, which is close to nuclear power plant sites, has been an important issue. But the issue has not been resolved yet in spite of much research works done. Recently, some capable faults were found in the offshore area of Gulupdo Island in the Yellow Sea. It is anticipated that the results of research on both the Yangsan Fault and reduction of uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis will have an significant influence on seismic design and safety assessment of nuclear power plants in the future. (author)

  10. Current issues and related activities in seismic hazard analysis in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Jeong-Moon; Lee, Jong-Rim; Chang, Chun-Joong.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses some technical issues identified from the seismic hazard analyses for probabilistic safety assessment on the operating Korean nuclear power plants and the related activities to resolve the issues. Since there are no strong instrumental earthquake records in Korea, the seismic hazard analysis is mainly dependent on the historical earthquake records. Results of the past seismic hazard analyses show that there are many uncertainties in attenuation function and intensity level and that there is a need to improve statistical method. The identification of the activity of the Yangsan Fault, which is close to nuclear power plant sites, has been an important issue. But the issue has not been resolved yet in spite of much research works done. Recently, some capable faults were found in the offshore area of Gulupdo Island in the Yellow Sea. It is anticipated that the results of research on both the Yangsan Fault and reduction of uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis will have an significant influence on seismic design and safety assessment of nuclear power plants in the future. (author)

  11. An innovative assessment of the seismic hazard from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes: Case studies in Romania and Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Cioflan, C.; Marmureanu, G.; Kouteva, M.; Paskaleva, I.; Romanelli, F.

    2002-02-01

    An advanced procedure for ground motion, capable of synthesizing the seismic ground motion from basic understanding of fault mechanism and seismic wave propagation, is applied to the case studies of Bucharest (Romania) and Russe, NE Bulgaria, exposed to the seismic hazard from Vrancea events. Synthetic seismic signals along representative geological cross sections in Bucharest and Russe and been computed and the energetic input spectra have been derived both from the synthetic signals and the few existing records. The theoretical signals are successfully compared with the available observations. The site response has been calculated for three recent, strong and intermediate-depth, Vrancea earthquakes: August 30, 1986 and May 30 and 31, 1990. The used approach differs significantly from today's engineering practice that relays upon rock-site hazard maps and applies the site correction at a later stage. The obtained results show that it is very useful to estimate the site effect via waveform modelling, considering simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the site, the position and geometry of the seismic source and the mechanical properties of the propagation medium. (author)

  12. Research on high level radioactive waste repository seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing Xu

    2012-01-01

    Review seismic hazard analysis principle and method in site suitable assessment process of Yucca Mountain Project, and seismic design criteria and seismic design basis in primary design process. Demonstrated spatial character of seismic hazard by calculated regional seismic hazard map. Contrasted different level seismic design basis to show their differences and relation. Discussed seismic design criteria for preclosure phrase of high level waste repository and preference goal under beyond design basis ground motion. (author)

  13. Seismic risk map for Southeastern Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mioto, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    During the last few years, some studies regarding seismic risk were prepared for three regions of Brazil. They were carried on account of two basic interests: first, toward the seismic history and recurrence of Brazilian seismic events; second, in a way as to provide seismic parameters for the design and construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. The first seismic risk map prepared for the southeastern region was elaborated in 1979 by 6he Universidade de Brasilia (UnB-Brasilia Seismological Station). In 1981 another seismic risk map was completed on the basis of seismotectonic studies carried out for the design and construction of the Nuclear power plants of Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro) by IPT (Mining and Applied Geology Division). In Brazil, until 1984, seismic studies concerning hydro and nuclear power plants and other civil construction of larger size did not take into account the seismic events from the point of view of probabilities of seismic recurrences. Such analysis in design is more important than the choice of a level of intensity or magnitude, or adoption of a seismicity level ased on deterministic methods. In this way, some considerations were made, concerning the use of seisms in Brazilian designs of hydro and nuclear power plants, as far as seismic analysis is concerned, recently altered over the current seismic risk panorama. (D.J.M.) [pt

  14. Mapping sediment thickness of Islamabad city using empirical relationships: Implications for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Khan, M. Asif

    2016-04-01

    Soft sediments make an important component of the subsurface lithology, especially in areas underlain by river/stream basins. Occupying a position directly above the bedrock up to the land surface, these soft sediments can range in thickness from few centimeters to hundreds of meters. They carry a special nuisance in seismic hazards, as they serve as a source of seismic amplification that may enhance the seismic shaking of many folds. Determination of the thickness of the soft sediments is therefore crucial in seismic hazard analysis. A number of studies in recent years have demonstrated that frequency and amplitude spectrum obtained from the noise measurements during the recording of natural seismicity can be used to obtain thickness of soft sediments covering the bedrock. Nakamura (1989) presented a technique to determine such spectrum using ratio of horizontal to vertical components of the Rayleigh waves. The present study is based on an extensive set of microtremor measurements carried out in the Islamabad city, Pakistan. Fundamental frequencies were obtained from weak motion sensors and Tromino Engy Plus instruments to show that the correlation is clearly valid for a wide range of sediment thickness. A simple formula was derived for the investigated area to determine directly the thickness of sediments from the main peaks in the H/ V spectrum for seismometer and Tromino data separately. A comparison is made between sediment thicknesses derived from empirical relations developed in this study with those given in literature to demonstrate a positive correlation. The correlation of instrumental resonant frequencies with calculated resonant frequencies (theoretical) suggests that the relation derived from the noise measurements mostly depends on the velocity depth function of the shear wave. The fundamental frequency of the main peak of spectral ratio of H/ V using the both instruments correlates well with the thickness of sediments at the site obtained from the

  15. Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: performances and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Orefice, Simone; Graziani, Laura; Brizuela, Beatriz; Smedile, Alessandra; Romano, Fabrizio; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Maramai, Alessandra; Piatanesi, Alessio; Pantosti, Daniela

    2017-04-01

    Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) provides probabilities to exceed different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region and in a given time span, for tsunamis caused by seismic sources. Results obtained by SPTHA (i.e., probabilistic hazard curves and inundation maps) represent a very important input to risk analyses and land use planning. However, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could lead to a biased analysis. Moreover, tsunami propagation from source to target requires the use of very expensive numerical simulations. At regional scale, the computational cost can be reduced using assumptions on the tsunami modeling (i.e., neglecting non-linear effects, using coarse topo-bathymetric meshes, empirically extrapolating maximum wave heights on the coast). On the other hand, moving to local scale, a much higher resolution is required and such assumptions drop out, since detailed inundation maps require significantly greater computational resources. In this work we apply a multi-step method to perform a site-specific SPTHA which can be summarized in the following steps: i) to perform a regional hazard assessment to account for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the seismic source, by combining the use of an event tree and an ensemble modeling technique; ii) to apply a filtering procedure which use a cluster analysis to define a significantly reduced number of representative scenarios contributing to the hazard of a specific target site; iii) to perform high resolution numerical simulations only for these representative scenarios and for a subset of near field sources placed in very shallow waters and/or whose coseismic displacements induce ground uplift or subsidence at the target. The method is applied to three target areas in the Mediterranean located around the cities of Milazzo (Italy), Thessaloniki (Greece) and

  16. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

    2011-01-01

    CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and

  17. Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.

    1989-01-01

    New design and evaluation guidelines for department of energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazard, are being finalized. Although still in draft form at this time, the document describing those guidelines should be considered to be an update of previously available guidelines. The recommendations in the guidelines document mentioned above, and simply referred to as the ''guidelines'' thereafter, are based on the best information at the time of its development. In particular, the seismic hazard model for the Princeton site was based on a study performed in 1981 for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), which relied heavily on the results of the NRC's Systematic Evaluation Program and was based on a methodology and data sets developed in 1977 and 1978. Considerable advances have been made in the last ten years in the domain of seismic hazard modeling. Thus, it is recommended to update the estimate of the seismic hazard at the DOE sites whenever possible. The major differences between previous estimates and the ones proposed in this study for the PPPL are in the modeling of the strong ground motion at the site, and the treatment of the total uncertainty in the estimates to include knowledge uncertainty, random uncertainty, and expert opinion diversity as well. 28 refs

  18. Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) seismic hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savy, J.

    1989-10-01

    New design and evaluation guidelines for department of energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazard, are being finalized. Although still in draft form at this time, the document describing those guidelines should be considered to be an update of previously available guidelines. The recommendations in the guidelines document mentioned above, and simply referred to as the guidelines'' thereafter, are based on the best information at the time of its development. In particular, the seismic hazard model for the Princeton site was based on a study performed in 1981 for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), which relied heavily on the results of the NRC's Systematic Evaluation Program and was based on a methodology and data sets developed in 1977 and 1978. Considerable advances have been made in the last ten years in the domain of seismic hazard modeling. Thus, it is recommended to update the estimate of the seismic hazard at the DOE sites whenever possible. The major differences between previous estimates and the ones proposed in this study for the PPPL are in the modeling of the strong ground motion at the site, and the treatment of the total uncertainty in the estimates to include knowledge uncertainty, random uncertainty, and expert opinion diversity as well. 28 refs.

  19. Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. Specific Safety Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-08-15

    This Safety Guide was prepared under the IAEA programme for safety standards for nuclear installations. It supplements the Safety Requirements publication on Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The present publication provides guidance and recommends procedures for the evaluation of seismic hazards for nuclear power plants and other nuclear installations. It supersedes Evaluation of Seismic Hazards for Nuclear Power Plants, IAEA Safety Standards Series No. NS-G-3.3 (2002). In this publication, the following was taken into account: the need for seismic hazard curves and ground motion spectra for the probabilistic safety assessment of external events for new and existing nuclear installations; feedback of information from IAEA reviews of seismic safety studies for nuclear installations performed over the previous decade; collective knowledge gained from recent significant earthquakes; and new approaches in methods of analysis, particularly in the areas of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and strong motion simulation. In the evaluation of a site for a nuclear installation, engineering solutions will generally be available to mitigate, by means of certain design features, the potential vibratory effects of earthquakes. However, such solutions cannot always be demonstrated to be adequate for mitigating the effects of phenomena of significant permanent ground displacement such as surface faulting, subsidence, ground collapse or fault creep. The objective of this Safety Guide is to provide recommendations and guidance on evaluating seismic hazards at a nuclear installation site and, in particular, on how to determine: (a) the vibratory ground motion hazards, in order to establish the design basis ground motions and other relevant parameters for both new and existing nuclear installations; and (b) the potential for fault displacement and the rate of fault displacement that could affect the feasibility of the site or the safe operation of the installation at

  20. GIS-based seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    permanent displacement potentially induced by an seismic scenario. Such methodologies found on the consideration that the conditions of seismic stability and the post-seismic functionality of engineering structures are tightly related to the entity of the permanent deformations that an earthquake can induce. Regarding the existing simplified procedures among slope stability models, Newmark's model is often used to derive indications about slope instabilities due to earthquakes. In this way, we have evaluated the seismically-induced landslides hazard in Sicily (Central Mediterranean) using the Newmark-like model. In order to determine the map distribution of the seismic ground-acceleration from an earthquake scenario, the attenuation-law of Sabetta & Pugliese has been used, analyzing some seismic recordings occurred in Italy. Also, by evaluating permanent displacements, the correlation of Ambraseys & Menu has been assumed. The seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily has been carried out using GIS application, also considering max seismic ground-acceleration peak distribution (in terms of exceedance probability for fixed time), slope acclivity, cohesion/angle of internal friction of outcropping rocks, allowing the zoning of the unstable slopes under seismic forces.

  1. The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

    2012-10-01

    Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

  2. Study on Frequency content in seismic hazard analysis in West Azarbayjan and East Azarbayjan provinces (Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behzadafshar, K.; Abbaszadeh Shahri, A.; Isfandiari, K.

    2012-12-01

    ABSTRACT: Iran plate is prone to earthquake, occurrence of destructive earthquakes approximately every 5 years certify it. Due to existence of happened great earthquakes and large number of potential seismic sources (active faults) which some of them are responsible for great earthquakes the North-West of Iran which is located in junction of Alborz and Zagros seismotectonic provinces (Mirzaii et al, 1998) is an interesting area for seismologists. Considering to population and existence of large cities like Tabriz, Ardabil and Orumiyeh which play crucial role in industry and economy of Iran, authors decided to focus on study of seismic hazard assessment in these two provinces to achieve ground acceleration in different frequency content and indicate critical frequencies in the studied area. It is important to note that however lots of studies have been done in North -West of Iran, but building code modifications also need frequency content analysis to asses seismic hazard more precisely which has been done in the present study. Furthermore, in previous studies have been applied free download softwares which were provided before 2000 but the most important advantage of this study is applying professional industrial software which has been written in 2009 and provided by authors. This applied software can cover previous software weak points very well such as gridding potential sources, attention to the seismogenic zone and applying attenuation relationships directly. Obtained hazard maps illustrate that maximum accelerations will be experienced in North West to South East direction which increased by frequency reduction from 100 Hz to 10 Hz then decreased by frequency reduce (to 0.25 Hz). Maximum acceleration will be occurred in the basement in 10 HZ frequency content. Keywords: hazard map, Frequency content, seismogenic zone, Iran

  3. The seismic project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bittenbinder, A.N.; Bogaert, B.M.; Buland, R.P.; Dietz, L.D.; Hansen, R.A.; Malone, S.D.; McCreery, C.S.; Sokolowski, T.J.; Whitmore, P.M.; Weaver, C.S.

    2005-01-01

    In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years. ?? Springer 2005.

  4. Angola Seismicity MAP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, F. A. P.; Franca, G.

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of this job was to study and document the Angola natural seismicity, establishment of the first database seismic data to facilitate consultation and search for information on seismic activity in the country. The study was conducted based on query reports produced by National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics (INAMET) 1968 to 2014 with emphasis to the work presented by Moreira (1968), that defined six seismogenic zones from macro seismic data, with highlighting is Zone of Sá da Bandeira (Lubango)-Chibemba-Oncócua-Iona. This is the most important of Angola seismic zone, covering the epicentral Quihita and Iona regions, geologically characterized by transcontinental structure tectono-magmatic activation of the Mesozoic with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks of ultrabasic-alkaline composition, basic and alkaline, kimberlites and carbonatites, strongly marked by intense tectonism, presenting with several faults and fractures (locally called corredor de Lucapa). The earthquake of May 9, 1948 reached intensity VI on the Mercalli-Sieberg scale (MCS) in the locality of Quihita, and seismic active of Iona January 15, 1964, the main shock hit the grade VI-VII. Although not having significant seismicity rate can not be neglected, the other five zone are: Cassongue-Ganda-Massano de Amorim; Lola-Quilengues-Caluquembe; Gago Coutinho-zone; Cuima-Cachingues-Cambândua; The Upper Zambezi zone. We also analyzed technical reports on the seismicity of the middle Kwanza produced by Hidroproekt (GAMEK) region as well as international seismic bulletins of the International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and these data served for instrumental location of the epicenters. All compiled information made possible the creation of the First datbase of seismic data for Angola, preparing the map of seismicity with the reconfirmation of the main seismic zones defined by Moreira (1968) and the identification of a new seismic

  5. The Contribution of Palaeoseismology to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations, published in 2010, covers all aspects of site evaluation relating to seismic hazards and recommends the use of prehistoric, historical and instrumental earthquake data in seismic hazard assessments. Prehistoric data on earthquakes cover a much longer period than do historical and instrumental data. However, gathering such data is generally difficult in most regions of the world, owing to an absence of human records. Prehistoric data on earthquakes can be obtained through the use of palaeoseismic techniques. This publication describes the current status and practices of palaeoseismology, in order to support Member States in meeting the recommendations of SSG-9 and in establishing the necessary earthquake related database for seismic hazard assessment and reassessment. At a donors’ meeting of the International Seismic Safety Centre Extrabudgetary Project in January 2011, it was suggested to develop detailed guidelines on seismic hazards. Soon after the meeting, the disastrous Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March 2011 and the consequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant occurred. The importance of palaeoseismology for seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation was highlighted by the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. However, no methodology for performing investigations using palaeoseismic techniques has so far been available in an IAEA publication. The detailed guidelines and practical tools provided here will be of value to nuclear power plant operating organizations, regulatory bodies, vendors, technical support organizations and researchers in the area of seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation for nuclear installations, and the information will be of importance in support of hazard assessments in the future

  6. Seismic fragility analysis of a nuclear building based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and soil-structure interaction analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, R.; Ni, S.; Chen, R.; Han, X.M. [CANDU Energy Inc, Mississauga, Ontario (Canada); Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power, Point Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada)

    2016-09-15

    Seismic fragility analyses are conducted as part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (SPSA) for nuclear facilities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) has been undertaken for a nuclear power plant in eastern Canada. Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS), obtained from the PSHA, is characterized by high frequency content which differs from the original plant design basis earthquake spectral shape. Seismic fragility calculations for the service building of a CANDU 6 nuclear power plant suggests that the high frequency effects of the UHS can be mitigated through site response analysis with site specific geological conditions and state-of-the-art soil-structure interaction analysis. In this paper, it is shown that by performing a detailed seismic analysis using the latest technology, the conservatism embedded in the original seismic design can be quantified and the seismic capacity of the building in terms of High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) can be improved. (author)

  7. Preliminary evaluation of the seismic hazard at Cernavoda NPP site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

    2001-01-01

    The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a methodology by which one evaluates the probability of exceeding different parameters of the ground motions (the maximum ground acceleration - PGA and the ground response spectrum - SA) as effect of the seismic action, on a given site at a future time moment. Due to the large uncertainties in the geological, geophysical, seismological input data, as well as, in the models utilised, various interpretation schemes are applied in the PSHA analyses. This interpretation schemes lead to opinion discrepancies among specialists which finally lead to disagreements in estimating the values of the seismic design for a given site. In order to re-evaluate the methodology and to improve the PSHA result stability, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) sponsored a project for defining methodological guides of performing PSHA analyses. The project was implemented by a panel of 7 experts, the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee - SSHAC. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the seismic hazard for the Cernavoda NPP site by application of the methodology mentioned, by taking into account the possible sources which could affect the site (the Vrancea focus, Galati - Tulcea fault, Sabla - Dulovo fault and local earthquakes)

  8. A procedure for assessing seismic hazard generated by Vrancea earthquakes and its application. III. A method for developing isoseismal and isoacceleration maps. Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, D.; Enescu, B.D.

    2007-01-01

    A method for developing isoseismal and isoacceleration maps assumedly valid for future strong earthquakes (M GR > 6.7) is described as constituting the third stage of a procedure for assessing the seismic hazard generated by Vrancea earthquakes. The method relies on the results of the former two stages given by Enescu et al., and on further developments that are presented in this paper. Moreover, it is based on instrument recording data. Major earthquakes taking place in Vrancea (November 10, 1940 - M GR 7.4, March 4, 1977 - M GR = 7.2 and the strongest possible) were examined as a way to test the method. The method is also applied for an earthquake of magnitude M GR = 6.7. Given the successful results of the tests, the method can by used for predicting isoseismal and isoacceleration maps for future Vrancea earthquakes of various magnitudes M GR ≥ 6.7. (authors)

  9. Assessment of seismic hazards along the northern Gulf of Aqaba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman Aqel

    Aqaba and Elat are very important port and recreation cities for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, respectively. The two cities are the most susceptible to damage from a destructive future earthquake because they are located over the tectonically active Dead Sea transform fault (DST) that is the source of most of the major historical earthquakes in the region. The largest twentieth century earthquake on the DST, the magnitude Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake of November 22, 1995, caused damage to structures in both cities. The integration of geological, geophysical, and earthquake engineering studies will help to assess the seismic hazards by determining the location and slip potential of active faults and by mapping areas of high liquefaction susceptibility. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a high resolution shallow geophysical tool was used to map the shallow active faults in Aqaba, Taba Sabkha area, and Elat. The GPR data revealed the onshore continuation of the Evrona, West Aqaba, Aqaba fault zones, and several transverse faults. The integration of offshore and onshore data confirm the extension of these faults along both sides of the Gulf of Aqaba. A 3D model of GPR data at one site in Aqaba indicates that the NW-trending transverse faults right laterally offset older than NE-trending faults. The most hazardous fault is the Evrona fault which extends north to the Tabs Sabkha. A geographic information system (GIS) database of the seismic hazard was created in order to facilitate the analyzing, manipulation, and updating of the input parameters. Liquefaction potential maps were created for the region based on analysis of borehole data. The liquefaction map shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba. In Aqaba several hotels are located within a high and moderate liquefaction zones. The Yacht Club, Aqaba, Ayla archaeological site, and a part of commercial area are also situated in a risk area. A part

  10. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Method for Nonlinear Soil Sites based on the Hazard Spectrum of Bedrock Sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, Dae Gi; Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil

    2011-01-01

    For the probabilistic safety assessment of the nuclear power plants (NPP) under seismic events, the rational probabilistic seismic hazard estimation should be performed. Generally, the probabilistic seismic hazard of NPP site is represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for the specific annual frequency. In most case, since that the attenuation equations were defined for the bedrock sites, the standard attenuation laws cannot be applied to the general soft soil sites. Hence, for the probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard of soft soil sites, a methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) coupled with nonlinear dynamic analyses of the soil column are required. Two methods are commonly used for the site response analysis considering the nonlinearity of sites. The one is the deterministic method and another is the probabilistic method. In the analysis of site response, there exist many uncertainty factors such as the variation of the magnitude and frequency contents of input ground motion, and material properties of soil deposits. Hence, nowadays, it is recommended that the adoption of the probabilistic method for the PSHA of soft soil deposits considering such uncertainty factors. In this study, we estimated the amplification factor of the surface of the soft soil deposits with considering the uncertainties of the input ground motions and the soil material properties. Then, we proposed the probabilistic methodology to evaluate the UHS of the soft soil site by multiplying the amplification factor to that of the bedrock site. The proposed method was applied to four typical target sites of KNGR and APR1400 NPP site categories

  11. Reassessment of seismic hazards at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, I.G.; Hemphill-Haley, M.A.; Kelson, K.I.; Gardner, J.N.; House, L.S.

    1991-01-01

    A comprehensive seismic hazards evaluation program has been initiated at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to update the current seismic design criteria. In part, this program has been motivated by recent studies which suggest that faults of the nearby Pajarito fault system may be capable of generating a large magnitude earthquake (M > 7). The specific objectives of this program are to: (1) characterize the tectonic setting of the LANL area; (2) characterize the nature, amount, and timing of late Quaternary fault displacements; (3) reevaluate the recorded seismicity in the LANL region to allow for the evaluation of seismogenic faults and the tectonic state of stress; (4) characterize the subsurface geologic conditions beneath the LANL required for the estimation of strong ground motions and site response; (5) estimate potential strong ground shaking both deterministically and probabilistically; and (6) develop the appropriate seismic design criteria. The approach and initial results of this seismic hazards program are described in this paper

  12. Seismic acceleration map expected for Japanese central region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Takeshi; Maeda, Kouji; Ishii, Kiyoshi; Suzuki, Makoto.

    1990-01-01

    Since electric generating and supplying facilities scatter in large areas, the seismic acceleration map, which defines the anticipated earthquake ground motions in a broad region, is very useful information for the design of those facilities against large earthquakes. This paper describes the development of a seismic acceleration map for the Central Japanese Region by incorporating the analytical results based on historical earthquake records and active fault data using probability and statistics. In the region, there have occurred several destructive earthquakes; Anseitokai (1854, M = 8.4) and Tohnankai (1944, M = 7.9) earthquakes along the Nankai trough; Nohbi (1891, M = 8.0) and Fukui (1948, M = 7.1) earthquakes in inland ares. Some of the historical earthquake data were obtained by instrument last one hundred years, whereas others by literary descriptions for nearly 1,000 years. The active fault data, have been collected mainly from the surveys of fault topography and geology, and are considered to indicate the average seismic activity for the past million years. A proposed seismic acceleration map for the return period of 75 years, calculated on the free surface of base stratum, was estimated by the following way. The analytical result based on the historical earthquake records was adopted mainly, because the Japanese seismic design criteria have been developed based on them. The proposed seismic acceleration map was revised by including the result based on the active fault data for the areas, where historical earthquake records lack, and the result was smoothed to evaluate the final seismic acceleration map. (author)

  13. Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    3National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Cairo 11421, Egypt. ∗ ... were assigned to different Mmax values and the selected GMPE to calculate the final hazard ... zone is considered as a prominent seismic gap and.

  14. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  15. Research on the spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, Jing; Jiang, Jitong; Zheng, Qiuhong; Gao, Huiying

    2017-01-01

    Seismic hazard analysis(SHA) is a key component of earthquake disaster prevention field for island engineering, whose result could provide parameters for seismic design microscopically and also is the requisite work for the island conservation planning’s earthquake and comprehensive disaster prevention planning macroscopically, in the exploitation and construction process of both inhabited and uninhabited islands. The existing seismic hazard analysis methods are compared in their application, and their application and limitation for island is analysed. Then a specialized spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island (SAMSHI) is given to support the further related work of earthquake disaster prevention planning, based on spatial analysis tools in GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The basic spatial database of SAMSHI includes faults data, historical earthquake record data, geological data and Bouguer gravity anomalies data, which are the data sources for the 11 indices of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and these indices are calculated by the spatial analysis model constructed in ArcGIS’s Model Builder platform. (paper)

  16. Research on the spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jing; Jiang, Jitong; Zheng, Qiuhong; Gao, Huiying

    2017-05-01

    Seismic hazard analysis(SHA) is a key component of earthquake disaster prevention field for island engineering, whose result could provide parameters for seismic design microscopically and also is the requisite work for the island conservation planning’s earthquake and comprehensive disaster prevention planning macroscopically, in the exploitation and construction process of both inhabited and uninhabited islands. The existing seismic hazard analysis methods are compared in their application, and their application and limitation for island is analysed. Then a specialized spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island (SAMSHI) is given to support the further related work of earthquake disaster prevention planning, based on spatial analysis tools in GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The basic spatial database of SAMSHI includes faults data, historical earthquake record data, geological data and Bouguer gravity anomalies data, which are the data sources for the 11 indices of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and these indices are calculated by the spatial analysis model constructed in ArcGIS’s Model Builder platform.

  17. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  18. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  19. Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent

  20. The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

  1. Seismic hazards: New trends in analysis using geologic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, D.P.; Coppersmith, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    In the late 1960s and early 1970s, largely in response to expansion of nuclear power plant siting and issuance of a code of federal regullations by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission referred to as Appendix A-10CFR100, the need to characterize the earthquake potential of individual faults for seismic design took on greater importance. Appendix A established deterministic procedures for assessing the seismic hazard at nuclear power plant sites. Bonilla and Buchanan, using data from historical suface-faulting earthquakes, developed a set of statistical correlations relating earthquake magnitude to surface rupture length and to surface displacement. These relationships have been refined and updated along with the relationship between fault area and magnitude and seismic moment and moment magnitude have served as the basis for selecting maximum earthquakes in a wide variety of design situations. In the paper presented, the authors discuss new trends in seismic hazard analysis using geologic data, with special emphasis on fault-zone segmentation and recurrence models and the way in which they provide a basis for evaluating long-term earthquake potential

  2. Sensitivity of seismic hazard to various parameters and correlations for peak ground acceleration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    1998-10-01

    The design basis ground motion of a site is generally specified in terms of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), ground motion response spectrum and time history. The probability of exceedence of the design level PGA is one of the factors to quantify the seismic risk at the given site. The present paper extends the work of Cornell to consider an aerial source model and a more general form of the correlation for PGA to evaluate the seismic hazard. It is further recognised that the predicted seismic hazard can vary with various parameters involved. Numerical results have been presented to show this variability. These results will help to determine the seismic hazard at a given site and the associated uncertainties. (author)

  3. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken

    2002-03-01

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

  4. Review of induced seismic hazard for Hot Dry Rock Project, Rosemanowes, Cornwall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skipp, B.O.; Woo, G.; Eldred, P.J.L.

    1991-01-01

    Geothermal energy installations perturb the earth's crust and so may provoke earthquakes. The 21st Dry Rock (HDR) Geothermal Project at Rosemanowes Quarry in Cornwall has given rise to low level unfelt acoustic emission and possibly small, felt earthquakes. This review of induced seismic hazard study examines the effects that the HDR Project could have on seismic events. Events which are modified by the project, in magnitude and time of occurrence, as well as those which might not have occurred at all were studied. From an examination of the literature and relevant seismicity models, a broad estimate of induced seismic hazard was established. (U.K)

  5. Seismic hazard studies for the high flux beam reactor at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantino, C.J.; Heymsfield, E.; Park, Y.J.; Hofmayer, C.H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a calculation to determine the site specific seismic hazard appropriate for the deep soil site at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) which is to be used in the risk assessment studies being conducted for the High Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR). The calculations use as input the seismic hazard defined for the bedrock outcrop by a study conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Variability in site soil properties were included in the calculations to obtain the seismic hazard at the ground surface and compare these results with those using the generic amplification factors from the LLNL study

  6. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - lessons learned: A regulator's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1990-01-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a powerful, rational and attractive tool for decision-making. It is capable of absorbing and integrating a wide range of information and judgement and their associated uncertainties into a flexible framework that permits the application of societal goals and priorities. Unfortunately, its highly integrative nature can obscure those elements which drive the results, its highly quantitative nature can lead to false impressions of accuracy, and its open embrace of uncertainty can make decision-making difficult. Addressing these problems can only help to increase its use and make it more palatable to those who need to assess seismic hazard and utilize the results. (orig.)

  7. Risk-targeted maps for Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

    2018-03-01

    Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

  8. French practice in the area of seismic hazard assessment on nuclear facility sites and related research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1986-06-01

    The methodology put into practice in the analysis of seismic hazard on the site of a nuclear facility relies upon a deterministic approach and endeavors to account for the particularities of every site considered insofar as available data and techniques allow. The calculation of a seismic reference motion for use in the facilities' design calls upon two basic sets of data. Regional seismicity over the past millennium, from historical sources, revised while preparing the seismotectonic map of France, is fundamental to this analysis. It is completed by instrumental data from the last quarter century. A collection of strong-motion accelerograph data from seismic areas worldwide reflects a variety of source characteristics and site conditions. A critical overview of current practice in France and elsewhere highlights shortcomings and areas of particular need both in experimental data and in methodology, and namely the scarcity of near-field data, the predominance of California records, and inaccurate approaches to integrating soil effects into ground-motion calculations. 16 refs

  9. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    OpenAIRE

    Shedlock, K. M.; Tanner, J. G.

    1999-01-01

    Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billi...

  10. Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (3-D) seismic source models (fault source model) using the latest research works regarding the tec- tonic setting of Sumatra and ... is selected because this city is the main business ... and Sumatra, the improvements of the method in seismic ...

  11. Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

    2007-05-01

    Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

  12. Terrain classification and land hazard mapping in Kalsi-Chakrata area (Garhwal Himalaya), India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choubey, Vishnu D.; Litoria, Pradeep K.

    Terrain classification and land system mapping of a part of the Garhwal Himalaya (India) have been used to provide a base map for land hazard evaluation, with special reference to landslides and other mass movements. The study was based on MSS images, aerial photographs and 1:50,000 scale maps, followed by detailed field-work. The area is composed of two groups of rocks: well exposed sedimentary Precambrian formations in the Himalayan Main Boundary Thrust Belt and the Tertiary molasse deposits of the Siwaliks. Major tectonic boundaries were taken as the natural boundaries of land systems. A physiographic terrain classification included slope category, forest cover, occurrence of landslides, seismicity and tectonic activity in the area.

  13. Geotechnical Seismic Hazard Evaluation At Sellano (Umbria, Italy) Using The GIS Technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capilleri, P.; Maugeri, M.

    2008-01-01

    A tool that has been widely-used in civil engineering in recent years is the geographic information system (GIS). Geographic Information systems (GIS) are powerful tools for organizing, analyzing, and presenting spatial data. The GIS can be used by geotechnical engineers to aid preliminary assessment through to the final geotechnical design. The aim of this work is to provide some indications for the use of the GIS technique in the field of seismic geotechnical engineering, particularly as regards the problems of seismic hazard zonation maps. The study area is the village of Sellano located in the Umbrian Apennines in central Italy, about 45 km east of Perugia and 120 km north-east of Rome The increasing importance attributed to microzonation derives from the spatial variability of ground motion due to particular local conditions. The use of GIS tools can lead to an early identification of potential barriers to project completion during the design process that may help avoid later costly redesign

  14. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Azzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017. The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016 – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be

  15. OpenQuake, a platform for collaborative seismic hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, Paul; Burton, Christopher; Butler, Lars; Crowley, Helen; Danciu, Laurentiu; Nastasi, Matteo; Monelli, Damiano; Pagani, Marco; Panzeri, Luigi; Simionato, Michele; Silva, Vitor; Vallarelli, Giuseppe; Weatherill, Graeme; Wyss, Ben

    2013-04-01

    instruments for the creation of seismogenic input models for seismic hazard assessment, a critical input to the OpenQuake Engine. OpenQuake Modeller will consist of a suite of tools (Hazard Modellers Toolkit) for characterizing the seismogenic sources of earthquakes and their models of earthquakes recurrence. An earthquake catalogue homogenization tool, for integration, statistical comparison and user-defined harmonization of multiple catalogues of earthquakes is also included in the OpenQuake modeling tools. • A data capture tool for active faults; a tool that allows geologists to draw (new) fault discoveries on a map in an intuitive GIS-environment and add details on the fault through the tool. This data, once quality checked, can then be integrated with the global active faults database, which will increase in value with every new fault insertion. Building on many ongoing efforts and the knowledge of scientists worldwide, GEM will for the first time integrate state-of-the-art data, models, results and open-source tools into a single platform. The platform will continue to increase in value, in particular for use in local contexts, through contributions from and collaborations with scientists and organisations worldwide. This presentation will showcase the OpenQuake Platform, focusing on the IT solutions that have been adopted as well as the added value that the platform will bring to scientists worldwide.

  16. Hazard Map for Autonomous Navigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Troels

    This dissertation describes the work performed in the area of using image analysis in the process of landing a spacecraft autonomously and safely on the surface of the Moon. This is suggested to be done using a Hazard Map. The correspondence problem between several Hazard Maps are investigated...

  17. Spatial Analysis of the Level of Exposure to Seismic Hazards of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, S.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2011-12-01

    Although health facilities are essential infrastructure during disasters and emergencies, they are also usually highly vulnerable installations in the case of the occurrence of large and major earthquakes. Hospitals are one of the most complex critical facilities in modern cities and they are used as first response in emergency situations. The operability of a hospital must be maintained after the occurrence of a local strong earthquake in order to satisfy the need for medical care of the affected population. If a health facility is seriously damaged, it cannot fulfill its function when most is needed. In this case, hospitals become a casualty of the disaster. To identify the level of physical exposure of hospitals to seismic hazards in Mexico City, we analyzed their geographic location with respect to the seismic response of the different type of soils of the city from past earthquakes, mainly from the events that occurred on September 1985 (Ms= 8.0) and April 1989 (Ms= 6.9). Seismic wave amplification in this city is the result of the interaction of the incoming seismic waves with the soft and water saturated clay soils, on which a large part of Mexico City is built. The clay soils are remnants of the lake that existed in the Valley of Mexico and which has been drained gradually to accommodate the growing urban sprawl. Hospital facilities were converted from a simple database of names and locations into a map layer of resources. This resource layer was combined with other map layers showing areas of seismic microzonation in Mexico City. This overlay was then used to identify those hospitals that may be threatened by the occurrence of a large or major seismic event. We analyzed the public and private hospitals considered as main health facilities. Our results indicate that more than 50% of the hospitals are highly exposed to seismic hazards. Besides, in most of these health facilities we identified the lack of preventive measures and preparedness to reduce their

  18. Probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard for eastern United States nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.; Bernreuter, D.; Mensing, R.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the seismic hazard characterization of the Eastern US project, for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was to develop a methodology and data bases to estimate the seismic hazard at all the plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains. A summary of important conclusions reached in this multi year study is presented in this paper. The magnitude and role of the uncertainty in the hazard estimates is emphasized in regard of the intended final use of the results

  19. Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

    2010-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the

  20. Recent achievements of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in the CEI region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Vaccari, F.; Kouteva, M.

    2008-03-01

    A review of the recent achievements of the innovative neo-deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment through realistic earthquake scenarios has been performed. The procedure provides strong ground motion parameters for the purpose of earthquake engineering, based on the deterministic seismic wave propagation modelling at different scales - regional, national and metropolitan. The main advantage of this neo-deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the earthquake source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles. The neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure has been successfully applied to numerous metropolitan areas all over the world in the framework of several international projects. In this study some examples focused on CEI region concerning both regional seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation of the selected metropolitan areas are shown. (author)

  1. FiSH: put fault data in a seismic hazard basket

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Bruno; Visini, Francesco; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The practice of using fault sources in seismic hazard studies is growing in popularity, including in regions with moderate seismic activity, such as the European countries. In these areas, fault identification may be affected by similarly large uncertainties in the historical and instrumental seismic histories of more active areas that have not been inhabited for long periods of time. Certain studies have effectively applied a time-dependent perspective to combine historical and instrumental seismic data with geological and paleoseismological information, partially compensating for a lack of information. We present a package of Matlab® tools (called FiSH), in publication on Seismological Research Letters, designed to help seismic hazard modellers analyse fault data. These tools enable the derivation of expected earthquake rates given common fault data, and allow you to test the consistency between the magnitude frequency distributions assigned to a fault and some available observations. The basic assumption of FiSH is that the geometric and kinematic features of a fault are the expression of its seismogenic potential. Three tools have been designed to integrate the variable levels of information available: (a) the first tool allows users to convert fault geometry and slip rates into a global budget of the seismic moment released in a given time frame, taking uncertainties into account; (b) the second tool computes the recurrence parameters and associated uncertainties from historical and/or paleoseismological data; 
(c) the third tool outputs time-independent or time-dependent earthquake rates for different magnitude frequency distribution models. We present moreover a test case to illustrate the capabilities of FiSH, on the Paganica normal fault in Central Italy that ruptured during the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake sequence (mainshock Mw 6.3). FiSH is available at http://fish-code.com, and the source codes are open. We encourage users to handle the scripts

  2. Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byunghyun Choi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. In addition, it has been reported that there are regions where the intensity of the vibrations owing to the aftershocks was much stronger than those associated with the main shock. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seismic risk associated with aftershocks. We used the data regarding aftershocks that was obtained from the Tohoku earthquake and various other historically large earthquakes. We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks using the Gutenberg–Richter law and the modified Omori law. Subsequently, we previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this study, the probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to create aftershock hazard maps. We propose a hazard map focusing on the probability of aftershocks on the scale of the main shock for use with a recovery activity plan. Following the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we focus on the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks just after a great subduction earthquake. The probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design. This design is intended to simultaneously consider tsunamis and aftershocks for tsunami-resistant designs of tsunami evacuation buildings.

  3. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-07-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  4. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-01-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  5. PERSEPSI PENGEMBANGAN PETA RAWAN GEMPA KOTA SEMARANG MELALUI PENELITIAN HAZARD GEMPA DETERMINISTIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Windu Partono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Pengembangan peta resiko gempa berdasarkan analisa hazard gempa deterministik (DSHA merupakan salah satu tahapan yang sangat penting untuk mitigasi kegempaan Kota Semarang. Penelitian peta resiko gempa mencakup perhitungan hazard gempa, analisa kondisi tanah lokal (SSA dan analisa tingkat resiko kegempaan. Analisa hazard gempa diimplementasikan dengan pendekatan deterministic akibat gempa untuk sumber gempa sesar aktif disekitar Kota Semarang. Parameter geoteknik diperoleh dari hasil pengamatan atau pengujian geoteknik. Hasil dari penelitian ini mencakup pengembangan peta spektra percepatan gerakan tanah di permukaan dan faktor amplifikasi percepatan tanah yang sangat diperlukan pada pengembangan peta rawan gempa Kota Semarang.[Perception Development of Seismic Risk Map Semarang City Through Deterministic Hazard Analysis Research] Development of seismic risk map based on Deterministic Hazard Analysis (DSHA is an important step for seismic disaster mitigation for Semarang City. The study includes estimation of seismic hazard (DSHA, site specific response analysis (SSA and risk assessment. Seismic hazard is performed based on deterministic approach considering shallow crustal fault sources influencing Semarang City. Geotechnical parameters are interpreted from previous geotechnical measurements. The result of the hazard analysis includes the distribution of site response spectral acceleration and amplification ratios are performed corresponding to seismic risk assessment for Semarang City. 

  6. Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL: PSHA Results Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, Alfredo [Fugro Consultants, Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Altekruse, Jason [Fugro Consultants, Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Menchawi, Osman El [Fugro Consultants, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    2016-03-11

    This report presents the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) performed for Building 332 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), near Livermore, CA by Fugro Consultants, Inc. (FCL). This report is specific to Building 332 only and not to other portions of the Laboratory. The study performed for the LLNL site includes a comprehensive review of recent information relevant to the LLNL regional tectonic setting and regional seismic sources in the vicinity of the site and development of seismic wave transmission characteristics. The Seismic Source Characterization (SSC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-02 (FCL, 2015a), and Ground Motion Characterization (GMC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-06 (FCL, 2015c) were developed in accordance with ANS/ANSI 2.29-2008 Level 2 PSHA guidelines. The ANS/ANSI 2.29-2008 Level 2 PSHA framework is documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-05 (FCL, 2016a). The Hazard Input Document (HID) for input into the PSHA developed from the SSC is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-04 (FCL, 2016b). The site characterization used as input for development of the idealized site profiles including epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-03 (FCL, 2015b).

  7. Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS

  8. Seismic Adequacy Review of PC012 SCEs that are Potential Seismic Hazards with PC3 SCEs - CVD Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    OCOMA, E.C.

    1999-01-01

    This document provides seismic adequacy review of PCO12 Systems, Components L Equipment anchorage that are potential seismic interaction hazards with PC3 SCEs during a Design Basis Earthquake. The PCO12 items are identified in the Safety Equipment List as 3/1 SCEs

  9. New strong motion network in Georgia: basis for specifying seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Risk created by hazardous natural events is closely related to sustainable development of the society. Global observations have confirmed tendency of growing losses resulting from natural disasters, one of the most dangerous and destructive if which are earthquakes. Georgia is located in seismically active region. So, it is imperative to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic risk with proper accuracy. National network of Georgia includes 35 station all of which are seismometers. There are significant gaps in strong motion recordings, which essential for seismic hazard assessment. To gather more accelerometer recordings, we have built a strong motion network distributed on the territory of Georgia. The network includes 6 stations for now, with Basalt 4x datalogger and strong motion sensor Episensor ES-T. For each site, Vs30 and soil resonance frequencies have been measured. Since all but one station (Tabakhmelam near Tbilisi), are located far from power and internet lines special system was created for instrument operation. Solar power is used to supply the system with electricity and GSM/LTE modems for internet access. VPN tunnel was set up using Raspberry pi, for two-way communication with stations. Tabakhmela station is located on grounds of Ionosphere Observatory, TSU and is used as a hub for the network. This location also includes a broadband seismometer and VLF electromagnetic waves observation antenna, for possible earthquake precursor studies. On server, located in Tabakhmela, the continues data is collected from all the stations, for later use. The recordings later will be used in different seismological and engineering problems, namely selecting and creating GMPE model for Caucasus, for probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic risk evaluation. These stations are a start and in the future expansion of strong motion network is planned. Along with this, electromagnetic wave observations will continue and additional antennas will be implemented

  10. The Optimizer Topology Characteristics in Seismic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengor, T.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristic data of the natural phenomena are questioned in a topological space approach to illuminate whether there is an algorithm behind them bringing the situation of physics of phenomena to optimized states even if they are hazards. The optimized code designing the hazard on a topological structure mashes the metric of the phenomena. The deviations in the metric of different phenomena push and/or pull the fold of the other suitable phenomena. For example if the metric of a specific phenomenon A fits to the metric of another specific phenomenon B after variation processes generated with the deviation of the metric of previous phenomenon A. Defining manifold processes covering the metric characteristics of each of every phenomenon is possible for all the physical events; i.e., natural hazards. There are suitable folds in those manifold groups so that each subfold fits to the metric characteristics of one of the natural hazard category at least. Some variation algorithms on those metric structures prepare a gauge effect bringing the long time stability of Earth for largely scaled periods. The realization of that stability depends on some specific conditions. These specific conditions are called optimized codes. The analytical basics of processes in topological structures are developed in [1]. The codes are generated according to the structures in [2]. Some optimized codes are derived related to the seismicity of NAF beginning from the quakes of the year 1999. References1. Taner SENGOR, "Topological theory and analytical configuration for a universal community model," Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 81, pp. 188-194, 28 June 2013, 2. Taner SENGOR, "Seismic-Climatic-Hazardous Events Estimation Processes via the Coupling Structures in Conserving Energy Topologies of the Earth," The 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract no.: 31374, ABD.

  11. The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

  12. A seismic hazard overview of the Mitidja Basin (Northern Algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontiela, J. F.; Borges, J.; Ouyed, M.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Idres, M.; Caldeira, B.; Boughacha, M. S.; Carvalho, J.; Samai, S.; Aissa, S.; Benfadda, A.; Chimouni, R.; Yalaoui, R.; Dias, R.

    2017-12-01

    The Mitidja Basin (MB) is located in N Algeria and it is filled by quaternary sediments with a length of 100 km on the EW direction and around 20 km width. The S and N limites comprise the Boumerdes-Larbaa-Blida, and the Thenia-Sahel active fault system, respectively. Both fault systems are of the reverse type with opposed dips and accommodate a general slip rate of ˜4 mm/year. In the basin occurred earthquakes that caused severe damage and losses such as the ones of Algiers (1365, Io=X; 1716, Io=X) and the Bourmedes earthquake (Mw 6.9; May 2003) that affected the area of Zemmouri and caused 2.271 deaths. The event was caused by the reactivation of the MB boundary faults. The earthquake generated a max uplift of 0.8m along the coast and a horizontal max. slip of 0.24m.Recent studies show that the Boumerdes earthquake overloaded the adjacent faults system with a stress increase between 0.4 and 1.5 bar. The stress change recommends a detailed study of mentioned faults system due to the increase of the seismic hazard. The high seismogenic potential of the fault system bordering the MB, increases the vulnerability of densely populated areas of Algiers and the amplification effect caused by the basin are the motivation of this project that will focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard of the region. To achieve seismic hazard assessment on the MB, through realistic predictions of strong ground motion, caused by moderate and large earthquakes, it is important 1) develop a detailed 3D velocity/structure model of the MB that includes geological constraints, seismic reflection data acquired on wells, refraction velocities and seismic noise data, and determination of the attenuation laws based on instrumental records; 2) evaluate the seismic potential and parameters of the main active faults of the MB; 3) develop numerical methods (deterministic and stochastic) to simulate strong ground motions produced by extended seismic sources. To acquire seismic noise were used

  13. Crustal structure and Seismic Hazard studies in Nigeria from ambient noise and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiri, U. A.

    2016-12-01

    The crust, upper Mantle and seismic hazard studies have been carried out in Nigeria using noise and earthquake data. The data were acquired from stations in Nigeria and international Agencies. Firstly, known depths of sediments in the Lower Benue Trough (LBT) were collected from wells; Resonance frequency (Fo) and average shear-wave velocities (Vs) were then computed using Matlab. Secondly, average velocities were estimated from noise cross-correlation along seismic stations. Thirdly, the moho depths beneath Ife, Kaduna and Nsukka stations were estimated, as well as Vp/Vs ratio using 2009 earthquake with epicenter in Nigeria. Finally, Statistical and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were used to compute seismic hazard parameters in Nigeria and its surroundings. The results showed that, soils on the LBT with average shear wave velocity of about 5684m/s would experience more amplification in case of an earthquake, compared to the basement complex in Nigeria. The Vs beneath the seismic stations in Nigeria were also estimated as 288m/s, 1019m/s, 940.6m/s and 255.02m/s in Ife, Nsukka, Awka, and Abakaliki respectively. The average velocity along the station paths was 4.5km/secs, and the Vp, Vs for depths 100-500km profile in parts of South West Nigeria increased from about 5.83-6.42Km/sec and 3.48-6.31km/s respectively with Vp/Vs ratio decreasing from 1.68 to 1.02. Statistical analysis revealed a trend of increasing earthquake occurrence along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and tending to West African region. The analysis of PSHA shows the likelihood of earthquakes with different magnitudes occurring in Nigeria and other parts West Africa in future. This work is aimed at addressing critical issues regarding sites effect characterization, improved earthquake location and robust seismic hazards assessment for planning in the choice of sites for critical facilities in Nigeria. Keywords: Sediment thickness, Resonance Frequency, Average Velocity, Seismic Hazard, Nigeria

  14. A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice

    2018-05-01

    A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

  15. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

    2006-12-01

    The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

  16. Seismic hazard assessment for the Caucasus test area

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Balassanian, S.; Ashirov, T.; Chelidze, T.; Gassanov, A.; Kondorskaya, N.; Molchan, G.; Pustovitenko, B.; Trifonov, V.; Ulomov, V.; Giardini, D.; Erdik, M.; Ghafory-Ashtiany, M.; Grunthal, G.; Mayer-Rosa, D.; Schenk, Vladimír; Stucchi, M.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 6 (1999), s. 1139-1151 ISSN 0365-2556 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  17. Seismic hazard assessment in the Catania and Siracusa urban areas (Italy) through different approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Francesco; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Rigano, Rosaria

    2010-05-01

    The seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can be performed using either Deterministic or Probabilistic approaches. In present study a probabilistic analysis was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns using two different procedures: the 'site' (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002) and the 'seismotectonic' (Cornell 1968; Esteva, 1967) methodologies. The SASHA code (D'Amico and Albarello, 2007) was used to calculate seismic hazard through the 'site' approach, whereas the CRISIS2007 code (Ordaz et al., 2007) was adopted in the Esteva-Cornell procedure. According to current international conventions for PSHA (SSHAC, 1997), a logic tree approach was followed to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties, for both seismotectonic and site methods. The code SASHA handles the intensity data taking into account the macroseismic information of past earthquakes. CRISIS2007 code needs, as input elements, a seismic catalogue tested for completeness, a seismogenetic zonation and ground motion predicting equations. Data concerning the characterization of regional seismic sources and ground motion attenuation properties were taken from the literature. Special care was devoted to define source zone models, taking into account the most recent studies on regional seismotectonic features and, in particular, the possibility of considering the Malta escarpment as a potential source. The combined use of the above mentioned approaches allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the site seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. The results point out that the choice of the probabilistic model plays a fundamental role. It is indeed observed that when the site intensity data are used, the town of Catania shows hazard values higher than the ones found for Siracusa, for each considered return period. On the contrary, when the Esteva-Cornell method is used, Siracusa urban area shows higher hazard than Catania, for return periods greater than one hundred years. The higher hazard observed

  18. Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations: Ground Motion Prediction Equations and Site Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    The objective of this publication is to provide the state-of-the-art practice and detailed technical elements related to ground motion evaluation by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and site response in the context of seismic hazard assessments as recommended in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The publication includes the basics of GMPEs, ground motion simulation, selection and adjustment of GMPEs, site characterization, and modelling of site response in order to improve seismic hazard assessment. The text aims at delineating the most important aspects of these topics (including current practices, criticalities and open problems) within a coherent framework. In particular, attention has been devoted to filling conceptual gaps. It is written as a reference text for trained users who are responsible for planning preparatory seismic hazard analyses for siting of all nuclear installations and/or providing constraints for anti-seismic design and retrofitting of existing structures

  19. Seismogenic zonation and seismic hazard estimates in a Southern Italy area (Northern Apulia characterised by moderate seismicity rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Del Gaudio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The northernmost part of Apulia, in Southern Italy, is an emerged portion of the Adriatic plate, which in past centuries was hit by at least three disastrous earthquakes and at present is occasionally affected by seismic events of moderate energy. In the latest seismic hazard assessment carried out in Italy at national scale, the adopted seismogenic zonation (named ZS9 has defined for this area a single zone including parts of different structural units (chain, foredeep, foreland. However significant seismic behaviour differences were revealed among them by our recent studies and, therefore, we re-evaluated local seismic hazard by adopting a zonation, named ZNA, modifying the ZS9 to separate areas of Northern Apulia belonging to different structural domains. To overcome the problem of the limited datasets of historical events available for small zones having a relatively low rate of earthquake recurrence, an approach was adopted that integrates historical and instrumental event data. The latter were declustered with a procedure specifically devised to process datasets of low to moderate magnitude shocks. Seismicity rates were then calculated following alternative procedural choices, according to a "logic tree" approach, to explore the influence of epistemic uncertainties on the final results and to evaluate, among these, the importance of the uncertainty in seismogenic zonation. The comparison between the results obtained using zonations ZNA and ZS9 confirms the well known "spreading effect" that the use of larger seismogenic zones has on hazard estimates. This effect can locally determine underestimates or overestimates by amounts that make necessary a careful reconsideration of seismic classification and building code application.

  20. The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

    2017-06-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities

  1. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the effect of vertical ground motions on seismic response of highway bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Zeynep

    Typically, the vertical component of the ground motion is not considered explicitly in seismic design of bridges, but in some cases the vertical component can have a significant effect on the structural response. The key question of when the vertical component should be incorporated in design is answered by the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study incorporating the probabilistic seismic demand models and ground motion models. Nonlinear simulation models with varying configurations of an existing bridge in California were considered in the analytical study. The simulation models were subjected to the set of selected ground motions in two stages: at first, only horizontal components of the motion were applied; while in the second stage the structures were subjected to both horizontal and vertical components applied simultaneously and the ground motions that produced the largest adverse effects on the bridge system were identified. Moment demand in the mid-span and at the support of the longitudinal girder and the axial force demand in the column are found to be significantly affected by the vertical excitations. These response parameters can be modeled using simple ground motion parameters such as horizontal spectral acceleration and vertical spectral acceleration within 5% to 30% error margin depending on the type of the parameter and the period of the structure. For a complete hazard assessment, both of these ground motion parameters explaining the structural behavior should also be modeled. For the horizontal spectral acceleration, Abrahamson and Silva (2008) model was used within many available standard model. A new NGA vertical ground motion model consistent with the horizontal model was constructed. These models are combined in a vector probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Series of hazard curves developed and presented for different locations in Bay Area for soil site conditions to provide a roadmap for the prediction of these features for future

  2. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  3. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  4. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S

    2018-02-20

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  5. Introduction: Hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Rex L.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Lee, Saro; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr M

    2014-01-01

    Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.

  6. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Program, list of participants and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents a copy of the workshop program, the list of participants and extended abstracts received from speakers. It was distributed to the participants prior to the workshop. The abstracts were intended to provide advance information and to afford some basis for meaningful discussion and exchange of information

  7. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Program, list of participants and abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents a copy of the workshop program, the list of participants and extended abstracts received from speakers. It was distributed to the participants prior to the workshop. The abstracts were intended to provide advance information and to afford some basis for meaningful discussion and exchange of information.

  8. Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

  9. Geologic Maps as the Foundation of Mineral-Hazards Maps in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Downey, C. I.; Clinkenbeard, J. P.; Fonseca, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    The basic geologic map is essential to the development of products that help planners, engineers, government officials, and the general public make decisions concerning natural hazards. Such maps are the primary foundation that the California Geological Survey (CGS) uses to prepare maps that show potential for mineral-hazards. Examples of clients that request these maps are the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Largely because of their non-catastrophic nature, mineral hazards have received much less public attention compared to earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods. Nonetheless, mineral hazards can be a major concern locally when considering human health and safety and potential contamination of the environment by human activities such as disposal of earth materials. To address some of these concerns, the CGS has focused its mineral-hazards maps on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), radon, and various potentially toxic metals as well as certain artificial features such as mines and oil and gas wells. The maps range in scope from statewide to counties and Caltrans districts to segments of selected highways. To develop the hazard maps, the CGS begins with traditional paper and digital versions of basic geologic maps, which are obtained from many sources such as its own files, the USGS, USDA Forest Service, California Department of Water Resources, and counties. For each study area, these maps present many challenges of compilation related to vintage, scale, definition of units, and edge-matching across map boundaries. The result of each CGS compilation is a digital geologic layer that is subsequently reinterpreted and transformed into new digital layers (e.g., lithologic) that focus on the geochemical and mineralogical properties of the area’s earth materials and structures. These intermediate layers are then integrated with other technical data to derive final digital layers

  10. The 2018 and 2020 Updates of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    During 2018 the USGS will update the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Models by incorporating new seismicity models, ground motion models, site factors, fault inputs, and by improving weights to ground motion models using empirical and other data. We will update the earthquake catalog for the U.S. and introduce new rate models. Additional fault data will be used to improve rate estimates on active faults. New ground motion models (GMMs) and site factors for Vs30 have been released by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) and we will consider these in assessing ground motions in craton and extended margin regions of the central and eastern U.S. The USGS will also include basin-depth terms for selected urban areas of the western United States to improve long-period shaking assessments using published depth estimates to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear wave velocities. We will produce hazard maps for input into the building codes that span a broad range of periods (0.1 to 5 s) and site classes (shear wave velocity from 2000 m/s to 200 m/s in the upper 30 m of the crust, Vs30). In the 2020 update we plan on including: a new national crustal model that defines basin depths required in the latest GMMs, new 3-D ground motion simulations for several urban areas, new magnitude-area equations, and new fault geodetic and geologic strain rate models. The USGS will also consider including new 3-D ground motion simulations for inclusion in these long-period maps. These new models are being evaluated and will be discussed at one or more regional and topical workshops held at the beginning of 2018.

  11. Seismic hazard assessment in intra-plate areas and backfitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Eng, P.

    2001-01-01

    Typically, fuel cycle facilities have been constructed over a 40 year time period incorporating various ages of seismic design provisions ranging from no specific seismic requirements to the life safety provisions normally incorporated in national building codes through to the latest seismic nuclear codes that provide not only for structural robustness but also include operational requirements for continued operation of essential safety functions. The task is to ensure uniform seismic risk in all facilities. Since the majority of the fuel cycle infrastructure has been built the emphasis is on re-evaluation and backfitting. The wide range of facilities included in the fuel cycle and the vastly varying hazard to safety, health and the environment suggest a performance based approach. This paper presents such an approach, placed in an intra-plate setting of a Stable Continental Region (SCR) typical to that found in Eastern Canada. (author)

  12. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards

  13. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  14. Seismic Microzonation of Breginjski Kot (NW Slovenia) Based on Detailed Engineering Geological Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Breginjski kot is among the most endangered seismic zones in Slovenia with the seismic hazard assessed to intensity IX MSK and the design ground acceleration of 0.250 g, both for 500-year return period. The most destructive was the 1976 Friuli Mw = 6.4 earthquake which had maximum intensity VIII-IX. Since the previous microzonation of the area was based solely on the basic geological map and did not include supplementary field research, we have performed a new soil classification of the area. First, a detailed engineering geological mapping in scale 1 : 5.000 was conducted. Mapped units were described in detail and some of them interpreted anew. Stiff sites are composed of hard to medium-hard rocks which were subjected to erosion mainly evoked by glacial and postglacial age. At that time a prominent topography was formed and different types of sediments were deposited in valleys by mass flows. A distinction between sediments and weathered rocks, their exact position, and thickness are of significant importance for microzonation. On the basis of geological mapping, a soil classification was carried out according to the Medvedev method (intensity increments) and the Eurocode 8 standard (soil factors) and two microzonation maps were prepared. The bulk of the studied area is covered by soft sediments and nine out of ten settlements are situated on them. The microzonation clearly points out the dependence of damage distribution in the case of 1976 Friuli earthquake to local site effects. PMID:24453884

  15. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

    2011-01-01

    In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

  16. High temporal resolution mapping of seismic noise sources using heterogeneous supercomputers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokhberg, Alexey; Ermert, Laura; Paitz, Patrick; Fichtner, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Time- and space-dependent distribution of seismic noise sources is becoming a key ingredient of modern real-time monitoring of various geo-systems. Significant interest in seismic noise source maps with high temporal resolution (days) is expected to come from a number of domains, including natural resources exploration, analysis of active earthquake fault zones and volcanoes, as well as geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring. Currently, knowledge of noise sources is insufficient for high-resolution subsurface monitoring applications. Near-real-time seismic data, as well as advanced imaging methods to constrain seismic noise sources have recently become available. These methods are based on the massive cross-correlation of seismic noise records from all available seismic stations in the region of interest and are therefore very computationally intensive. Heterogeneous massively parallel supercomputing systems introduced in the recent years combine conventional multi-core CPU with GPU accelerators and provide an opportunity for manifold increase and computing performance. Therefore, these systems represent an efficient platform for implementation of a noise source mapping solution. We present the first results of an ongoing research project conducted in collaboration with the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS). The project aims at building a service that provides seismic noise source maps for Central Europe with high temporal resolution (days to few weeks depending on frequency and data availability). The service is hosted on the CSCS computing infrastructure; all computationally intensive processing is performed on the massively parallel heterogeneous supercomputer "Piz Daint". The solution architecture is based on the Application-as-a-Service concept in order to provide the interested external researchers the regular access to the noise source maps. The solution architecture includes the following sub-systems: (1) data acquisition responsible for

  17. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  18. Reducing Seismic Hazard and Building Capacity Through International Cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergino, E. S.; Arakelyan, A.; Babayan, H.; Durgaryan, R.; Elashvili, M.; Godoladze, T.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Kalogeras, I.; Karakhanyan, A.; Martin, R. J.; Yetirmishli, G.

    2012-12-01

    During the last 50 years, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea regions have experienced several devastating earthquakes. While each country in the region has worked with its neighbors on small, ad-hoc projects to improve preparedness, deeply ingrained political and ethnic rivalries, and severely stressed economies have severely hindered sustained regional cooperation. Future damaging earthquakes are inevitable and without proper planning the negative impact on public safety, security, economics and stability in these regions will be devastating. We have, through twelve years of international scientific cooperation, focused on the development of an expanded skill base and infrastructure, through the installation of new, modern, digital seismic monitoring networks, building of historic databases, sharing seismic, geologic and geophysical data, conducting joint scientific investigations utilizing the new digital data and applying modern techniques, as well as the development of regional hazard models that the scientists of the region share with their governments and use to advise them on the best ways to mitigate the impact of a damaging earthquake. We have established specialized regional scientific task-force teams who can carry out seismological, geological and engineering studies in the epicentral zone, including the collection of new scientific data, for better understanding of seismic and geodynamic processes as well to provide emergency support in crisis and post-crisis situations in the Southern Caucasus countries. "Secrecy" in crisis and post-crisis situations in the former Soviet Union countries, as well as political instabilities, led to an absence of seismic risk reduction and prevention measures as well as little to no training of scientific-technical personnel who could take action in emergency situations. There were few opportunities for the development of a next generation of scientific experts, thus we have placed emphasis on the inclusion

  19. Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Volume 1: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-05-01

    This report describes and summarizes a probabilistic evaluation of ground motions for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The purpose of this evaluation is to provide a basis for updating the seismic design criteria for the INEL. In this study, site-specific seismic hazard curves were developed for seven facility sites as prescribed by DOE Standards 1022-93 and 1023-96. These sites include the: Advanced Test Reactor (ATR); Argonne National Laboratory West (ANL); Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP or CPP); Power Burst Facility (PBF); Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC); Naval Reactor Facility (NRF); and Test Area North (TAN). The results, probabilistic peak ground accelerations and uniform hazard spectra, contained in this report are not to be used for purposes of seismic design at INEL. A subsequent study will be performed to translate the results of this probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to site-specific seismic design values for the INEL as per the requirements of DOE Standard 1020-94. These site-specific seismic design values will be incorporated into the INEL Architectural and Engineering Standards

  20. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Eastern and Central groups of the Azores - Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontiela, João; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Rosset, Philippe; Borges, José; Rodrigues, Francisco; Caldeira, Bento

    2017-04-01

    Azores islands of the Eastern and Central groups are located at the triple junction of the American, Eurasian and Nubian plates inducing a large number of low magnitude earthquakes. Since its settlement in the 15th century, 33 earthquakes with intensity ≥ VII have caused severe damage and high death toll. The most severe ones occurred in 1522 at São Miguel Island with a maximum MM intensity of X; in 1614 at Terceira Island (X) in 1757 at São Jorge Island (XI); 1852 at São Miguel Island (VIII); 1926 at Faial Island (Mb 5.3-5.9); in 1980 at Terceira Island (Mw7.1) and in 1998 at Faial Island (Mw6.2). The analysis of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were carried out using the classical Cornell-McGuire approach using seismogenic zones recently defined by Fontiela et al. (2014). We create a new earthquake catalogue merging local and global datasets with a large time span (1522 - 2016) to calculate recurrence times and maximum magnitudes. In order to reduce the epistemic uncertainties, we test several ground motion prediction equations in agreement with the geological heterogeneities typical of young volcanic islands. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps are proposed for 475 and 975 years returns periods as well as hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for the main cities. REFERENCES: Fontiela, J. et al., 2014. Azores seismogenic zones. Comunicações Geológicas, 101(1), pp.351-354. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: João Fontiela is supported by grant M3.1.2/F/060/2011 of Regional Science Fund of the Regional Government Azores and this study is co-funded by the European Union through the European fund of Regional Development, framed in COMPETE 2020 (Operational Competitiveness Programme and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID/GEO/04683/2013) with the reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690.

  1. Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klügel, Jens-Uwe

    2011-01-01

    The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell-McGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang-Tang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.

  2. Seismic rupture study using near-source data: application to seismic hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, Bruno

    2000-01-01

    This work presents seismic source studies using near-field data. In accordance with the quality and the quantity of available data we developed and applied various methods to characterize the seismic source. Macro-seismic data are used to verify if simple and robust methods used on recent instrumental earthquakes may provide a good tool to calibrate historical events in France. These data are often used to characterize earthquakes to be taken into account for seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions. Geodetic data (SAR, GPS) are used to estimate the slip distribution on the fault during the 1992, Landers, California earthquake. These data are also used to precise the location and the geometry of the main events of the 1997, Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake sequence. Finally, the strong motions contain the most complete information about rupture process. These data are used to discriminate between two possible fault planes of the 1999, north India, Chamoli earthquake. The strong motions recorded close to the 1999, Mexico, Oaxaca earthquake are used to constrain the rupture history. Strong motions a.re also used in combination with geodetic data to access the rupture history of the Landers earthquake and the main events of the Colfiorito seismic sequence. For the Landers earthquake, the data quality and complementarity offered the possibility to describe the rupture development with accuracy. The large heterogeneities in both slip amplitude and rupture velocity variations suggest that the rupture propagates by breaking successive asperities rather than by propagating like a pulse at constant velocity. The rupture front slows as it encounters barriers and accelerates within main asperities. (author)

  3. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Luke

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP. Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1 legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2 flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1 standing water depths following the flood, (2 the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3 pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating

  4. Applications of seismic damage hazard analysis for the qualification of existing nuclear and offshore facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazzurro, P.; Manfredini, G.M.; Diaz Molina, I.

    1995-01-01

    The Seismic Damage Hazard Analysis (SDHA) is a methodology which couples conventional Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and non-linear response analysis to seismic loadings. This is a powerful tool in the retrofit process: SDHA permits the direct computation of the probability of occurrence of damage and, eventually, collapse of existing and upgraded structural systems. The SDHA methodology is a significant step towards a better understanding and quantification of structural seismic risk. SDHA incorporates and explicitly accounts for seismic load variability, seismic damage potential variability and structural resistance uncertainty. In addition, SDHA makes available a sound strategy to perform non-linear dynamic analyses. A limited number of non-linear dynamic analyses is sufficient to obtain estimates of damage and its probability of occurrence. The basic concepts of the SDHA methodology are briefly reviewed. Illustrative examples are presented, regarding a power house structure, a tubular structure and seabed slope stability problem. (author)

  5. Seismic hazard evaluation for major cities in Madagascar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby N.T.; Rambolamanana, Gerard; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2009-09-01

    The seismic hazard in some areas in Madagascar has been assessed at regional scale in terms of peak ground motion values (displacement, velocity, acceleration) and their periods, following the Neodeterministic approach, based on the computation of realistic synthetic seismograms. The main data input integrates all available tectonic, seismicity and structural model information. The largest peak values are 1.6cm/s for the velocity, 0.03g for the acceleration and more than 0.5cm for the displacement. These values are consistent within a range of macroseismic intensity from VI to VII MCS, and indicate that relatively simple prevention measures and retrofitting actions may guarantee a high safety level and a well sustainable development. (author)

  6. Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shivakumar G Patil

    2018-03-02

    Mar 2, 2018 ... Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the ... controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to .... west of the city of Hyderabad in south India (see ..... declustering algorithm developed by Gardner and. Knopoff .... sparse digital strong-motion networks. ..... The trivial case of.

  7. Optimal Retrofit Scheme for Highway Network under Seismic Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxi Huang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Many older highway bridges in the United States (US are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake. According to the most recent American Society of Civil Engineers’ infrastructure report card, one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones. To improve this situation, at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities. In this study, a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework. A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state. As an empirical case study, the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US, Charleston, South Carolina. The developed modeling framework, on average, will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45% with a cost increase of only $15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only $32m for the Mw 7.0 event.

  8. New seismic sources parameterization in El Salvador. Implications to seismic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Henar, Jorge; Staller, Alejandra; Jesús Martínez-Díaz, José; Benito, Belén; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; Canora, Carolina

    2014-05-01

    El Salvador is located at the pacific active margin of Central America, here, the subduction of the Cocos Plate under the Caribbean Plate at a rate of ~80 mm/yr is the main seismic source. Although the seismic sources located in the Central American Volcanic Arc have been responsible for some of the most damaging earthquakes in El Salvador. The El Salvador Fault Zone is the main geological structure in El Salvador and accommodates 14 mm/yr of horizontal displacement between the Caribbean Plate and the forearc sliver. The ESFZ is a right lateral strike-slip fault zone c. 150 km long and 20 km wide .This shear band distributes the deformation among strike-slip faults trending N90º-100ºE and secondary normal faults trending N120º- N170º. The ESFZ is relieved westward by the Jalpatagua Fault and becomes less clear eastward disappearing at Golfo de Fonseca. Five sections have been proposed for the whole fault zone. These fault sections are (from west to east): ESFZ Western Section, San Vicente Section, Lempa Section, Berlin Section and San Miguel Section. Paleoseismic studies carried out in the Berlin and San Vicente Segments reveal an important amount of quaternary deformation and paleoearthquakes up to Mw 7.6. In this study we present 45 capable seismic sources in El Salvador and their preliminary slip-rate from geological and GPS data. The GPS data detailled results are presented by Staller et al., 2014 in a complimentary communication. The calculated preliminary slip-rates range from 0.5 to 8 mm/yr for individualized faults within the ESFZ. We calculated maximum magnitudes from the mapped lengths and paleoseismic observations.We propose different earthquakes scenario including the potential combined rupture of different fault sections of the ESFZ, resulting in maximum earthquake magnitudes of Mw 7.6. We used deterministic models to calculate acceleration distribution related with maximum earthquakes of the different proposed scenario. The spatial distribution of

  9. Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wen Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944 exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault are short.

  10. Utilization of real-time seismic hazard information to make facilities more resilient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujinawa, Yukio

    2014-01-01

    Though the JMA early warning system (EEW) has been in operation for a long time, there are some shortcomings. Most people receive only EEWg (general public) alerts, but these do not reach those in places near the epicenter in time because issuing even the first alert requires three to five seconds. This presentation explained a hybrid seismic hazard evaluation system that uses regional EEW as well as on-site vertical and horizontal seismic observation data. A hybrid alert system using on-site instrumentation that detects initial small tremors and EEW can provide alerts much earlier than use of EEW alone. This system has been in practical use in a semiconductor factory since 2005. In addition, seismic hazard forecasts using deep borehole data and the possibility of just before prediction of earthquake occurrence by detecting electric field pulses in the subsurface were also mentioned in this presentation. (authors)

  11. Seismic hazard analysis of nuclear installations in France. Current practice and research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammadioun, B [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

    1997-03-01

    The methodology put into practice in France for the evaluation of seismic hazard on the sites of nuclear facilities is founded on data assembled country-wide over the past 15 years, in geology, geophysics and seismology. It is appropriate to the regional seismotectonic context (interplate), characterized notably by diffuse seismicity. Extensive use is made of information drawn from historical seismicity. The regulatory practice described in the RFS I.2.c is reexamined periodically and is subject to up-dating so as to take advantage of new earthquake data and of the results gained from research work. Acquisition of the basic data, such as the identification of active faults and the quantification of site effect, which will be needed to achieve improved preparedness versus severe earthquake hazard in the 21st century, will necessarily be the fruit of close international cooperation and collaboration, which should accordingly be actively promoted. (J.P.N.)

  12. Seismic hazard analysis of nuclear installations in France. Current practice and research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1997-01-01

    The methodology put into practice in France for the evaluation of seismic hazard on the sites of nuclear facilities is founded on data assembled country-wide over the past 15 years, in geology, geophysics and seismology. It is appropriate to the regional seismotectonic context (interplate), characterized notably by diffuse seismicity. Extensive use is made of information drawn from historical seismicity. The regulatory practice described in the RFS I.2.c is reexamined periodically and is subject to up-dating so as to take advantage of new earthquake data and of the results gained from research work. Acquisition of the basic data, such as the identification of active faults and the quantification of site effect, which will be needed to achieve improved preparedness versus severe earthquake hazard in the 21st century, will necessarily be the fruit of close international cooperation and collaboration, which should accordingly be actively promoted. (J.P.N.)

  13. Preliminary seismic hazard assessment, shallow seismic refraction and resistivity sounding studies for future urban planning at the Gebel Umm Baraqa area, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalil, Mohamed H; Hanafy, Sherif M; Gamal, Mohamed A

    2008-01-01

    Gebel Umm Baraqa Fan, west Gulf of Aqaba, Sinai, is one of the most important tourism areas in Egypt. However, it is located on the active Dead Sea-Gulf of Aqaba Levant transform fault system. Geophysical studies, including fresh water aquifer delineation, shallow seismic refraction, soil characterization and preliminary seismic hazard assessment, were conducted to help in future city planning. A total of 11 vertical electrical soundings (1000–3000 m maximum AB/2) and three bore-holes were drilled in the site for the analysis of ground water, total dissolved solids (TDS) and fresh water aquifer properties. The interpretation of the one-dimensional (1D) inversion of the resistivity data delineated the fresh water aquifer and determined its hydro-geologic parameters. Eleven shallow seismic refraction profiles (125 m in length) have been collected and interpreted using the generalized reciprocal method, and the resulting depth–velocity models were verified using an advanced finite difference (FD) technique. Shallow seismic refraction effectively delineates two subsurface layers (VP ∼ 450 m s −1 and VP ∼ 1000 m s −1 ). A preliminary seismic hazard assessment in Umm Baraqa has produced an estimate of the probabilistic peak ground acceleration hazard in the study area. A recent and historical earthquake catalog for the time period 2200 BC to 2006 has been compiled for the area. New accurate seismic source zoning is considered because such details affect the degree of hazard in the city. The estimated amount of PGA reveals values ranging from 250 to 260 cm s −2 in the bedrock of the Umm Baraqa area during a 100 year interval (a suitable time window for buildings). Recommendations as to suitable types of buildings, considering the amount of shaking and the aquifer properties given in this study, are expected to be helpful for the Umm Baraqa area

  14. High Temporal Resolution Mapping of Seismic Noise Sources Using Heterogeneous Supercomputers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paitz, P.; Gokhberg, A.; Ermert, L. A.; Fichtner, A.

    2017-12-01

    The time- and space-dependent distribution of seismic noise sources is becoming a key ingredient of modern real-time monitoring of various geo-systems like earthquake fault zones, volcanoes, geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs. We present results of an ongoing research project conducted in collaboration with the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS). The project aims at building a service providing seismic noise source maps for Central Europe with high temporal resolution. We use source imaging methods based on the cross-correlation of seismic noise records from all seismic stations available in the region of interest. The service is hosted on the CSCS computing infrastructure; all computationally intensive processing is performed on the massively parallel heterogeneous supercomputer "Piz Daint". The solution architecture is based on the Application-as-a-Service concept to provide the interested researchers worldwide with regular access to the noise source maps. The solution architecture includes the following sub-systems: (1) data acquisition responsible for collecting, on a periodic basis, raw seismic records from the European seismic networks, (2) high-performance noise source mapping application responsible for the generation of source maps using cross-correlation of seismic records, (3) back-end infrastructure for the coordination of various tasks and computations, (4) front-end Web interface providing the service to the end-users and (5) data repository. The noise source mapping itself rests on the measurement of logarithmic amplitude ratios in suitably pre-processed noise correlations, and the use of simplified sensitivity kernels. During the implementation we addressed various challenges, in particular, selection of data sources and transfer protocols, automation and monitoring of daily data downloads, ensuring the required data processing performance, design of a general service-oriented architecture for coordination of various sub-systems, and

  15. Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco

    2016-04-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including

  16. Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan M. Lindsay

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick ‘em Jenny and Ronde/Caille, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past ~10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that

  17. Statistical physics, seismogenesis, and seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, Ian

    1996-11-01

    generic statistical properties similar to the "universal" behavior seen in a wide variety of critical phenomena, with significant implications for practical problems in probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation. In particular, the notion of self-organized criticality (or near-criticality) gives a scientific rationale for the a priori assumption of "stationarity" used as a first step in the prediction of the future level of hazard. The Gutenberg-Richter law (a power law in energy or seismic moment) is found to apply only within a finite scale range, both in model and natural seismicity. Accordingly, the frequency-magnitude distribution can be generalized to a gamma distribution in energy or seismic moment (a power law, with an exponential tail). This allows extrapolations of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the maximum credible magnitude to be constrained by observed seismic or tectonic moment release rates. The answers to other questions raised are less clear, for example, the effect of the a priori assumption of a Poisson process in a system with strong local interactions, and the impact of zoning a potentially multifractal distribution of epicentres with smooth polygons. The results of some models show premonitory patterns of seismicity which could in principle be used as mainshock precursors. However, there remains no consensus, on both theoretical and practical grounds, on the possibility or otherwise of reliable intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

  18. Input parameters for the statistical seismic hazard assessment in central part of Romania territory using crustal earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldovan, A.I.; Bazacliu, O.; Popescu, E.

    2004-01-01

    The seismic hazard assessment in dense-populated geographical regions and subsequently the design of the strategic objectives (dams, nuclear power plants, etc.) are based on the knowledge of the seismicity parameters of the seismic sources which can generate ground motion amplitudes above the minimum level considered risky at the specific site and the way the seismic waves propagate between the focus and the site. The purpose of this paper is to provide a set of information required for a probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in the central Romanian territory relative to the following seismic sources: Fagaras zone (FC), Campulung zone (CP), and Transilvania zone (TD) all of them in the crust domain. Extremely vulnerable objectives are present in the central part of Romania, including cities of Pitesti and Sibiu and the 'Vidraru' dam. The analysis that we propose implies: (1) geometrical definition of the seismic sources, (2) estimation of the maximum possible magnitude, (3) estimation of the frequency - magnitude relationship and (4) estimation of the attenuation laws. As an example, the obtained input parameters are used to evaluate the seismic hazard distribution due to the crustal earthquakes applying the McGuire's procedure (1976). These preliminary results are in good agreement with the previous research based on deterministic approach (Radulian et al., 2000). (authors)

  19. SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, Suzette; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin; Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian; Falero, Valentina Montaldo; Youngs, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-risk informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.

  20. SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, Suzette [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Ryan [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Kevin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Falero, Valentina Montaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Youngs, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-risk informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.

  1. Building a risk-targeted regional seismic hazard model for South-East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, J.; Nyst, M.; Seyhan, E.

    2015-12-01

    The last decade has tragically shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs and initiatives to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way with the focus on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to develop appropriate models to cope with the economic consequences and impact on the insurance business. We present the source model and ground motions model components suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The source model builds upon refined modelling approaches to characterize 1) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 2) along the interface of subduction zones and within the slabs and 3) earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for the hazardous crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones, showcase some characteristics and sensitivities due to existing uncertainties in the rate and hazard space using a well selected suite of ground motion prediction equations. Finally, we analyze the source model by quantifying the contribution by source type (e.g., subduction zone, crustal fault) to typical risk metrics (e.g.,return period losses, average annual loss) and reviewing their relative impact on various lines of businesses.

  2. Checking of seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal NPP of Chinese continent after Fukushima nuclear accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang Xiangdong; Zhou Bengang; Zhao Lianda

    2013-01-01

    A checking on seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chinese continent has been made after Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident caused by earthquake tsunami.The results of the checking are introduced briefly in this paper,including the evaluations of seismic and tsunami hazard in NPP siting period,checking results on seismic and tsunami hazard.Because Chinese coastal area belongs to the continental shelf and far from the boundary of plate collision,the tsunami hazard is not significant for coastal area of Chinese continent.However,the effect from tsunami still can' t be excluded absolutely since calculated result of Manila trench tsunami source although the tsunami wave is lower than water level from storm surge.The research about earthquake tsunami will continue in future.The tsunami warning system and emergency program of NPP will be established based on principle of defense in depth in China.

  3. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP in continental Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Bhatia

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The regional hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia was coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing, originating from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar- Bangla Dash, in coordination with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow, and AGSO, Canberra and with the direct assistance of the USGS. All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in this regional effort, with the addition of Japan, for which an existing national hazard map was incorporated. The regional hazard depicts the expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

  4. Uses of probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard and nuclear power plants in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1983-01-01

    The use of probabilistic estimates is playing an increased role in the review of seismic hazard at nuclear power plants. The NRC Geosciences Branch emphasis has been on using these estimates in a relative rather than absolute manner and to gain insight on other approaches. Examples of this use include estimates to determine design levels, to determine equivalent hazard at different sites, to help define more realistic seismotectonic provinces, and to assess implied levels of acceptable risk using deterministic methods. Increased use of probabilistic estimates is expected. Probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard have a potential for misuse, however, and their successful integration into decision making requires they not be divorced from physical insight and scientific intuition

  5. Seismic risk map of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Lee, Y.K.; Eum, S.H.; Yang, S.J.; Chun, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    A study on seismic hazard level in Korea has been performed and the main results of the study are summarized as follows: 1. Historians suggest that the quality of historical earthquake data may be accurate in some degree and the data should be used in seismic risk analysis. 2. The historical damage events are conformed in historical literatures and their intensities are re-evaluated by joint researchers. The maximum MM intensity of them is VIII evaluated for 17 events. 3. The relation of earthquakes to surface fault is not clear. It seems resonable to related them to tectonic provinces. 4. Statistical seismic risk analysis shows that the acceleration expected within 50O year return period is less than 0.25G when only instrumental earthquakes are used and less than 0.10G if all of instrumental and historical earthquakes are used. The acceleration in Western Coast and Kyungsang area is higher than the other regions in Korea. 5. The maximum horizontal acceleration determined by conservative method is 0.26G when historical earthquake data are used and less than 0.20G if only instrumental earthquakes are used. The return period of 0.26G is 240 years in Kyungsang province and longer in other provinces. (Author)

  6. Growth of a sinkhole in a seismic zone of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

    OpenAIRE

    Rosa, Alessandro; Pagli, Carolina; Molli, Giancarlo; Casu, Francesco; Luca, Claudio; Pieroni, Amerino

    2018-01-01

    Sinkhole collapse is a major hazard causing substantial social and economic losses. However, the surface deformations and sinkhole evolution are rarely recorded, as these sites are known mainly after a collapse, making the assessment of sinkholes-related hazard challenging. Furthermore, 40 % of the sinkholes of Italy are in seismically hazardous zones; it remains unclear whether seismicity may trigger sinkhole collapse. Here we use a multidisciplinary dataset of InSAR, surface mapping ...

  7. Digging Our Own Holes: Institutional Perspectives on Seismic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Tomasello, J.

    2005-12-01

    It has been observed that there are no true students of the earth; instead, we each dig our own holes and sit in them. A similar situation arises in attempts to assess the hazards of earthquakes and other natural disasters and to develop strategies to mitigate them. Ideally, we would like to look at the interests of society as a whole and develop strategies that best balance hazard mitigation with alternative uses of resources. Doing so, however, is difficult for several reasons. First, estimating seismic hazards requires assumptions about the size, recurrence, and shaking from future earthquakes, none of which are well known. Second, we have to chose a definition of seismic hazard, which is even more arbitrary and at least as significant about future earthquakes. Third, mitigating the risks involves economic and policy issues as well as the scientific one of estimating the hazard itself and the engineering one of designing safe structures. As a result, different public and private organizations with different institutional perspectives naturally adopt different approaches. Most organizations have a single focus. For example, those focusing on economic development tend to discount hazards, whereas emergency management groups tend to accentuate them. Organizations with quasi-regulatory duties (BSSC, FEMA, USGS) focus on reducing losses in future earthquakes without considering the cost of mitigation measures or how this use of resources should be balanced with alternative uses of resources that could mitigate other losses. Some organizations, however, must confront these tradeoffs directly because they allocate resources internally. Hence hospitals implicitly trade off more earthquake resistant construction with treating uninsured patients, highway departments balance stronger bridges with other safety improvements, and schools balance safer buildings with after school programs. These choices are complicated by the fact that such infrastructure typically has longer

  8. SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, Suzette Jackson; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin; Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian; Falero, Valentina Montaldo; Youngs, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures for Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 study and included a Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) to provide the confident technical basis and mean-centered estimates of the ground motions. A new risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA was developed as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project. To develop and implement the new methodology, the SRA project elected to perform two SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs. The first was for the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF), which is classified as a Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3 nuclear facility. The second was for the ATR Complex, which has facilities classified as SDC-4. The new methodology requires defensible estimates of ground motion levels (mean and full distribution of uncertainty) for its criteria and evaluation process. The INL SSHAC Level 1 PSHA demonstrates the use of the PPRP, evaluation and integration through utilization of a small team with multiple roles and responsibilities (four team members and one specialty contractor), and the feasibility of a short duration schedule (10 months). Additionally, a SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels for the Spent Fuel Handling Recapitalization Project (SFHP) process facility.

  9. SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, Suzette Jackson [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Ryan [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Kevin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Falero, Valentina Montaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Youngs, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures for Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 study and included a Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) to provide the confident technical basis and mean-centered estimates of the ground motions. A new risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA was developed as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project. To develop and implement the new methodology, the SRA project elected to perform two SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs. The first was for the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF), which is classified as a Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3 nuclear facility. The second was for the ATR Complex, which has facilities classified as SDC-4. The new methodology requires defensible estimates of ground motion levels (mean and full distribution of uncertainty) for its criteria and evaluation process. The INL SSHAC Level 1 PSHA demonstrates the use of the PPRP, evaluation and integration through utilization of a small team with multiple roles and responsibilities (four team members and one specialty contractor), and the feasibility of a short duration schedule (10 months). Additionally, a SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels for the Spent Fuel Handling Recapitalization Project (SFHP) process facility.

  10. Seismic design criteria and their application to major hazard plant within the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alderson, M.A.H.G.

    1982-12-01

    The nature of seismic motions and the implications are briefly described and the development of seismic design criteria for nuclear power plants in various countries is described including possible future developments. The seismicity of the United Kingdom is briefly reviewed leading to the present position on seismic design criteria for nuclear power plants within the United Kingdom. Damage from past destructive earthquakes is reviewed and the existing codes of practice and standards are described. Finally the effect of earthquakes on major hazard plant is discussed in general terms including the seismic analysis of a typical plant item. (author)

  11. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: Considering an Active Leech River Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukovica, J.; Molnar, S.; Ghofrani, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Leech River fault is situated on Vancouver Island near the city of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The 60km transpressional reverse fault zone runs east to west along the southern tip of Vancouver Island, dividing the lithologic units of Jurassic-Cretaceous Leech River Complex schists to the north and Eocene Metchosin Formation basalts to the south. This fault system poses a considerable hazard due to its proximity to Victoria and 3 major hydroelectric dams. The Canadian seismic hazard model for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) considered the fault system to be inactive. However, recent paleoseismic evidence suggests there to be at least 2 surface-rupturing events to have exceeded a moment magnitude (M) of 6.5 within the last 15,000 years (Morell et al. 2017). We perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for the city of Victoria with consideration of the Leech River fault as an active source. A PSHA for Victoria which replicates the 2015 NBCC estimates is accomplished to calibrate our PSHA procedure. The same seismic source zones, magnitude recurrence parameters, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are used. We replicate the uniform hazard spectrum for a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years for a 500 km radial area around Victoria. An active Leech River fault zone is then added; known length and dip. We are determining magnitude recurrence parameters based on a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for the Leech River fault from various catalogues of the recorded seismicity (M 2-3) within the fault's vicinity and the proposed paleoseismic events. We seek to understand whether inclusion of an active Leech River fault source will significantly increase the probabilistic seismic hazard for Victoria. Morell et al. 2017. Quaternary rupture of a crustal fault beneath Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. GSA Today, 27, doi: 10.1130/GSATG291A.1

  12. User's manual of a computer code for seismic hazard evaluation for assessing the threat to a facility by fault model. SHEAT-FM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Onizawa, Kunio; Suzuki, Masahide

    2005-09-01

    To establish the reliability evaluation method for aged structural component, we developed a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation code SHEAT-FM (Seismic Hazard Evaluation for Assessing the Threat to a facility site - Fault Model) using a seismic motion prediction method based on fault model. In order to improve the seismic hazard evaluation, this code takes the latest knowledge in the field of earthquake engineering into account. For example, the code involves a group delay time of observed records and an update process model of active fault. This report describes the user's guide of SHEAT-FM, including the outline of the seismic hazard evaluation, specification of input data, sample problem for a model site, system information and execution method. (author)

  13. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

    2009-01-01

    The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Comparison of Structurally Controlled Landslide Hazard Simulation to the Co-seismic Landslides Caused by the M 7.2 2013 Bohol Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galang, J. A. M. B.; Eco, R. C.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The M_w 7.2 October 15, 2013 Bohol earthquake is one of the more destructive earthquake to hit the Philippines in the 21st century. The epicenter was located in Sagbayan municipality, central Bohol and was generated by a previously unmapped reverse fault called the "Inabanga Fault". The earthquake resulted in 209 fatalities and over 57 million USD worth of damages. The earthquake generated co-seismic landslides most of which were related to fault structures. Unlike rainfall induced landslides, the trigger for co-seismic landslides happen without warning. Preparations for this type of landslides rely heavily on the identification of fracture-related slope instability. To mitigate the impacts of co-seismic landslide hazards, morpho-structural orientations of discontinuity sets were mapped using remote sensing techniques with the aid of a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) obtained in 2012. The DTM used is an IFSAR derived image with a 5-meter pixel resolution and approximately 0.5 meter vertical accuracy. Coltop 3D software was then used to identify similar structures including measurement of their dip and dip directions. The chosen discontinuity sets were then keyed into Matterocking software to identify potential rock slide zones due to planar or wedged discontinuities. After identifying the structurally-controlled unstable slopes, the rock mass propagation extent of the possible rock slides was simulated using Conefall. Separately, a manually derived landslide inventory has been performed using post-earthquake satellite images and LIDAR. The results were compared to the landslide inventory which identified at least 873 landslides. Out of the 873 landslides identified through the inventory, 786 or 90% intersect the simulated structural-controlled landslide hazard areas of Bohol. The results show the potential of this method to identify co-seismic landslide hazard areas for disaster mitigation. Along with computer methods to simulate shallow landslides, and debris flow

  15. Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Romanelli, Fabio

    2014-10-01

    A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.

  16. Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

    2014-06-01

    Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

  17. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  18. SHEAT for PC. A computer code for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for personal computer, user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Hiroyuki; Tsutsumi, Hideaki; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Suzuki, Masahide

    2002-03-01

    The SHEAT code developed at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which is one of the tasks needed for seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant. At first, SHEAT was developed as the large sized computer version. In addition, a personal computer version was provided to improve operation efficiency and generality of this code in 2001. It is possible to perform the earthquake hazard analysis, display and the print functions with the Graphical User Interface. With the SHEAT for PC code, seismic hazard which is defined as an annual exceedance frequency of occurrence of earthquake ground motions at various levels of intensity at a given site is calculated by the following two steps as is done with the large sized computer. One is the modeling of earthquake generation around a site. Future earthquake generation (locations, magnitudes and frequencies of postulated earthquake) is modeled based on the historical earthquake records, active fault data and expert judgment. Another is the calculation of probabilistic seismic hazard at the site. An earthquake ground motion is calculated for each postulated earthquake using an attenuation model taking into account its standard deviation. Then the seismic hazard at the site is calculated by summing the frequencies of ground motions by all the earthquakes. This document is the user's manual of the SHEAT for PC code. It includes: (1) Outline of the code, which include overall concept, logical process, code structure, data file used and special characteristics of code, (2) Functions of subprogram and analytical models in them, (3) Guidance of input and output data, (4) Sample run result, and (5) Operational manual. (author)

  19. Application of probabilistic seismic hazard models with special calculation for the waste storage sites in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A.A.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic strong motion maps of Egypt are derived by applying Gumbel models and likelihood method to 8 earthquake source zones in Egypt and adjacent regions. Peak horizontal acceleration is mapped. Seismic data are collected from Helwan Catalog (1900-1997), regional catalog of earthquakes from the International Seismological Center (ISC,1910-1993) and earthquake data reports of US Department of International Geological Survey (USCGS, 1900-1994). Iso-seismic maps are also available for some events, which occurred in Egypt. Some earthquake source zones are well defined on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, but a lack of understanding of the near field effects of the large earthquakes prohibits accurate estimates of ground motion in their vicinity. Some source zones have no large-scale crustal features or zones of weakness that can explain the seismicity and must, therefore, be defined simply as concentrations of seismic activity with no geological or geophysical controls on the boundaries. Other source zones lack information on low-magnitude seismicity that would be representative of longer periods of time. Comparisons of the new probabilistic ground motion estimates in Egypt with equivalent estimates made in 1990 have been done. The new ground motion estimates are used to produce a new peak ground acceleration map to replace the 1990 peak acceleration zoning maps in the Building code of Egypt. (author)

  20. CRISIS2012: An Updated Tool to Compute Seismic Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordaz, M.; Martinelli, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.

    2013-05-01

    CRISIS is a computer tool for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), whose development started in the late 1980's at the Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, Mexico. It started circulating outside the Mexican borders at the beginning of the 1990's, when it was first distributed as part of SEISAN tools. Throughout the years, CRISIS has been used for seismic hazard studies in several countries in Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina and Chile), and in many other countries of the World. CRISIS has always circulated free of charge for non-commercial applications. It is worth noting that CRISIS has been mainly written by people that are, at the same time, PSHA practitioners. Therefore, the development loop has been relatively short, and most of the modifications and improvements have been made to satisfy the needs of the developers themselves. CRISIS has evolved from a rather simple FORTRAN code to a relatively complex program with a friendly graphical interface, able to handle a variety of modeling possibilities for source geometries, seismicity descriptions and ground motion prediction models (GMPM). We will describe some of the improvements made for the newest version of the code: CRISIS 2012.These improvements, some of which were made in the frame of the Italian research project INGV-DPC S2 (http://nuovoprogettoesse2.stru.polimi.it/), funded by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC; National Civil Protection Department), include: A wider variety of source geometries A wider variety of seismicity models, including the ability to handle non-Poissonian occurrence models and Poissonian smoothed-seismicity descriptions. Enhanced capabilities for using different kinds of GMPM: attenuation tables, built-in models and generalized attenuation models. In the case of built-in models, there is, by default, a set ready to use in CRISIS, but additional custom GMPMs

  1. A Case Study of Geologic Hazards Affecting School Buildings: Evaluating Seismic Structural Vulnerability and Landslide Hazards at Schools in Aizawl, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perley, M. M.; Guo, J.

    2016-12-01

    India's National School Safety Program (NSSP) aims to assess all government schools in earthquake prone regions of the country. To supplement the Mizoram State Government's recent survey of 141 government schools, we screened an additional 16 private and 4 government schools for structural vulnerabilities due to earthquakes, as well as landslide hazards, in Mizoram's capital of Aizawl. We developed a geomorphologically derived landslide susceptibility matrix, which was cross-checked with Aizawl Municipal Corporation's landslide hazard map (provided by Lettis Consultants International), to determine the geologic hazards at each school. Our research indicates that only 7% of the 22 assessed school buildings are located within low landslide hazard zones; 64% of the school buildings, with approximately 9,500 students, are located within very high or high landslide hazard zones. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was used to determine the structural earthquake vulnerability of each school building. RVS is an initial vulnerability assessment procedure used to inventory and rank buildings that may be hazardous during an earthquake. Our study indicates that all of the 22 assessed school buildings have a damageability rating of Grade 3 or higher on the 5-grade EMS scale, suggesting a significant vulnerability and potential for damage in buildings, ranging from widespread cracking of columns and beam column joints to collapse. Additionally, 86% of the schools we visited had reinforced concrete buildings constructed before Aizawl's building regulations were passed in 2007, which can be assumed to lack appropriate seismic reinforcement. Using our findings, we will give recommendations to the Government of Mizoram to prevent unnecessary loss of life by minimizing each school's landslide risk and ensuring schools are earthquake-resistant.

  2. Seismic hazard analysis. Review panel, ground motion panel, and feedback results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.L.

    1981-10-01

    The Site Specific Spectra Project (SSSP) was a multi-year study funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to provide estimates of the seismic hazards at a number of nuclear power plant sites in the Eastern U.S. A key element of our approach was the Peer Review Panel, which we formed in order to ensure that our use of expert opinion was reasonable. We discuss the Peer Review Panel results and provide the complete text of each member's report. In order to improve the ground motion model, an Eastern U.S. Ground Motion Model Panel was formed. In Section 4 we tabulate the responses from the panel members to our feedback questionnaire and discuss the implications of changes introduced by them. We conclude that the net difference in seismic hazard values from those presented in Volume 4 is small and does not warrant a reanalysis. (author)

  3. Scale of seismic and rock burst hazard in the Silesian companies in Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renata Patynska; Jozef Kabiesz [Central Mining Institute, Katowice (Poland)

    2009-09-15

    Presently the seismic and rock burst hazard appears still to be important in most of hard coal mines in Poland. Recently, there was a significant increase of seismic activity of the Silesian rock massive, when compared with the previous years. In the period 1999-2008 the hard coal mines experienced 34 rock bursts. The causes of rockburst occurrence are presented based on the analysis of the rockbursts occurring in the Polish hard coal mines. The scale of the rockburst hazard has been characterized with respect to the mining and geological conditions of the existing exploitation. Of the factors influencing the state of rockburst hazard, the most essential one is considered the depth interval ranging from 600 m to 900 m. The basic factors that promote the rockburst occurrence are as follows: seismogenic strata, edges and remnants, goaf, faults, pillars and excessive paneling. 5 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.

    2014-12-01

    Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available

  5. Widespread seismicity excitation following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toda, S.; Stein, R. S.; Lin, J.

    2011-12-01

    trench slope normal faults, the Kanto fragment beneath Tokyo, the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, and several other major faults were brought significantly closer to failure. Elevated seismicity in these areas is evident and sustained higher than normal during the 4.5 months after the Tohoku earthquake. Since several faults are overdue and closer to the next failure, an urgent update of the probabilistic seismic hazard map incorporating the impact of the great Tohoku earthquake is required.

  6. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-02-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  7. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  8. Analysis of uncertainties in a probabilistic seismic hazard estimation, example for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beauval, C.

    2003-12-01

    This thesis proposes a new methodology that allows to pinpoint the key parameters that control probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and at the same time to quantify the impact of these parameters uncertainties on hazard estimates. Cornell-McGuire's method is used here. First, uncertainties on magnitude and location determinations are modeled and quantified: resulting variability on hazard estimates ranges between 5% and 25% (=COV), depending on the site and the return period. An impact study is then performed, in order to determine the hierarchy between the impacts on hazard of the choices of four other parameters: intensity-magnitude correlation, minimum and maximum magnitudes, the truncation of the attenuation relationship. The results at 34 Hz (PGA) indicate that the maximum magnitude is the less influent parameter (from 100 to 10000 years); whereas the intensity-magnitude correlation and the truncation of ground motion predictions (>2σ) are the controlling parameters at all return periods (up to 30% decrease each at 10000 years). An increase in the minimum magnitude contributing to the hazard, from 3.5 to 4.5, can also produce non-negligible impacts at small return periods (up to 20% decrease of hazard results at 475 years). Finally, the overall variability on hazard estimates due to the combined choices of the four parameters can reach up to 30% (COV, at 34 Hz). For lower frequencies (<5 Hz), the overall variability increases and maximum magnitude becomes a controlling parameter. Therefore, variability of estimates due to catalog uncertainties and to the choices of these four parameters must be taken into account in all probabilistic seismic hazard studies in France. To reduce variability in hazard estimates, future research should concentrate on the elaboration of an appropriate intensity- magnitude correlation, as well as on a more realistic way of taking into account ground motion dispersion. (author)

  9. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  10. Analysis of Seismic Hazard. Slovak National Report to IUGG, 1995-1998

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schenk, Vladimír; Schenková, Zdeňka; Kottnauer, Pavel; Guterch, B.; Labák, P.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 29, Spec. issue (1999), s. 99-102 ISSN 1335-2806 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  11. Semi-automatic mapping for identifying complex geobodies in seismic images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-C, Raymundo; Romero-Salcedo, Manuel; Velasquillo-Martínez, Luis G.; Shemeretov, Leonid

    2017-03-01

    Seismic images are composed of positive and negative seismic wave traces with different amplitudes (Robein 2010 Seismic Imaging: A Review of the Techniques, their Principles, Merits and Limitations (Houten: EAGE)). The association of these amplitudes together with a color palette forms complex visual patterns. The color intensity of such patterns is directly related to impedance contrasts: the higher the contrast, the higher the color intensity. Generally speaking, low impedance contrasts are depicted with low tone colors, creating zones with different patterns whose features are not evident for a 3D automated mapping option available on commercial software. In this work, a workflow for a semi-automatic mapping of seismic images focused on those areas with low-intensity colored zones that may be associated with geobodies of petroleum interest is proposed. The CIE L*A*B* color space was used to perform the seismic image processing, which helped find small but significant differences between pixel tones. This process generated binary masks that bound color regions to low-intensity colors. The three-dimensional-mask projection allowed the construction of 3D structures for such zones (geobodies). The proposed method was applied to a set of digital images from a seismic cube and tested on four representative study cases. The obtained results are encouraging because interesting geobodies are obtained with a minimum of information.

  12. Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field

  13. Disaggregated seismic hazard and the elastic input energy spectrum: An approach to design earthquake selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Martin Colby

    1998-12-01

    The design earthquake selection problem is fundamentally probabilistic. Disaggregation of a probabilistic model of the seismic hazard offers a rational and objective approach that can identify the most likely earthquake scenario(s) contributing to hazard. An ensemble of time series can be selected on the basis of the modal earthquakes derived from the disaggregation. This gives a useful time-domain realization of the seismic hazard, to the extent that a single motion parameter captures the important time-domain characteristics. A possible limitation to this approach arises because most currently available motion prediction models for peak ground motion or oscillator response are essentially independent of duration, and modal events derived using the peak motions for the analysis may not represent the optimal characterization of the hazard. The elastic input energy spectrum is an alternative to the elastic response spectrum for these types of analyses. The input energy combines the elements of amplitude and duration into a single parameter description of the ground motion that can be readily incorporated into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. This use of the elastic input energy spectrum is examined. Regression analysis is performed using strong motion data from Western North America and consistent data processing procedures for both the absolute input energy equivalent velocity, (Vsbea), and the elastic pseudo-relative velocity response (PSV) in the frequency range 0.5 to 10 Hz. The results show that the two parameters can be successfully fit with identical functional forms. The dependence of Vsbea and PSV upon (NEHRP) site classification is virtually identical. The variance of Vsbea is uniformly less than that of PSV, indicating that Vsbea can be predicted with slightly less uncertainty as a function of magnitude, distance and site classification. The effects of site class are important at frequencies less than a few Hertz. The regression

  14. Wind turbines and seismic hazard: a state-of-the-art review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Thöns, Sebastian; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2016-01-01

    , India, Southern Europe and East Asia) highlight the necessity for thorough consideration of the seismic implications on these energy harnessing systems. Along these lines, this state-of-the-art paper presents a comparative survey of the published research relevant to the seismic analysis, design......Wind energy is a rapidly growing field of renewable energy, and as such, intensive scientific and societal interest has been already attracted. Research on wind turbine structures has been mostly focused on the structural analysis, design and/or assessment of wind turbines mainly against normal...... and assessment of wind turbines. Based on numerical simulation, either deterministic or probabilistic approaches are reviewed, because they have been adopted to investigate the sensitivity of wind turbines’ structural capacity and reliability in earthquake-induced loading. The relevance of seismic hazard...

  15. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  16. Comparison of evaluation guidelines for life-safety seismic hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyllie, L.A.; Love, R.J.

    1989-01-01

    The guidelines presented in Design Evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy Facilities Subjected to natural Phenomena Hazards (UCRL 15910 Draft; May 1989) include evaluation criteria for existing Department of Energy buildings subjected to earthquakes. These criteria were developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for use in both the seismic design of new structures and the evaluation of existing structures. ATC-14: Evaluating The Seismic Resistance of Existing Buildings developed by the Applied Technology Council, consists of guidelines and criteria for identifying the buildings or building components that present unacceptable risk to human lives. This paper compares and contrasts the two evaluation guidelines for existing buildings using a prototype building as an example. The prototype building is a seven story, concrete shear wall building assuming a General Use Occupancy

  17. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-01-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography

  18. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Cipta, Athanasius [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Australian National University, Canberra (Australia)

    2015-04-24

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  19. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-04-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  20. Preclosure seismic hazards and their impact on site suitability of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the preclosure seismic hazards and the influence of these hazards on determining the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a national high-level nuclear-waste repository. Geologic data, engineering analyses, and regulatory guidelines must be examined collectively to assess this suitability. An environmental assessment for Yucca Mountain, written in 1986, compiled and evaluated the existing tectonic data and presented arguments to satisfy, in part, the regulatory requirements that must be met if the Yucca Mountain site is to become a national waste repository. Analyses have been performed in the past five years that better quantify the local seismic hazards and the possibility that these hazards could lead to release of radionuclides to the environment. The results from these analyses increase the confidence in the ability of Yucca Mountain and the facilities that may be built there to function satisfactorily in their role as a waste repository. Uncertainties remain, however, primarily in the input parameters and boundary conditions for the models that were used to complete the analyses. These models must be validated and uncertainties reduced before Yucca Mountain can qualify as a viable high-level nuclear waste repository

  1. Seismic Hazard Analysis on a Complex, Interconnected Fault Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, M. T.; Field, E. H.; Milner, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    In California, seismic hazard models have evolved from simple, segmented prescriptive models to much more complex representations of multi-fault and multi-segment earthquakes on an interconnected fault network. During the development of the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), the prevalence of multi-fault ruptures in the modeling was controversial. Yet recent earthquakes, for example, the Kaikora earthquake - as well as new research on the potential of multi-fault ruptures (e.g., Nissen et al., 2016; Sahakian et al. 2017) - have validated this approach. For large crustal earthquakes, multi-fault ruptures may be the norm rather than the exception. As datasets improve and we can view the rupture process at a finer scale, the interconnected, fractal nature of faults is revealed even by individual earthquakes. What is the proper way to model earthquakes on a fractal fault network? We show multiple lines of evidence that connectivity even in modern models such as UCERF3 may be underestimated, although clustering in UCERF3 mitigates some modeling simplifications. We need a methodology that can be applied equally well where the fault network is well-mapped and where it is not - an extendable methodology that allows us to "fill in" gaps in the fault network and in our knowledge.

  2. Hazard Map of the Poás Volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Barrantes Castillo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Poás volcano presents a series of hazards to the lives and activities of the communities in its surroundings; these hazards include ash fall, volcanic gases, ballistic projection, pyroclastic flows, lahars and lava flows. In the study described in this article, risks were zoned and integrated to form combined hazard maps for later use in territorial planning processes. With respect to methodology, the study was based on a heuristic approximation, which was supported with cartographic, geomorphological, and historical impact criteria to achieve a suitable product in terms of scale and ease of interpretation. These maps present greater detail and integration than other works and cartographies of volcanic hazards in Costa Rica.

  3. Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berge-Thierry, C.; Hollender, F.; Guyonnet-Benaize, C.; Baumont, D.; Ameri, G.; Bollinger, L.

    2017-09-01

    Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety in France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule ( Règle Fondamentale de Sûreté) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and on the ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules for nuclear civil engineering structures. After the 2011 Tohohu earthquake, nuclear operators worldwide were asked to estimate the ability of their facilities to sustain extreme seismic loads. The French licensees then defined the `hard core seismic levels', which are higher than those considered for design or re-assessment of the safety of a facility. These were initially established on a deterministic basis, and they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. The appreciation and propagation of uncertainties when assessing seismic hazard in France have changed considerably over the past 15 years. This evolution provided the motivation for the present article, the objectives of which are threefold: (1) to provide a description of the current practices in France to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety; (2) to discuss and highlight the sources of uncertainties and their treatment; and (3) to use a specific case study to illustrate how extended source modeling can help to constrain the key assumptions or parameters that impact upon seismic hazard assessment. This article discusses in particular seismic source characterization, strong ground motion prediction, and maximal magnitude constraints, according to the practice of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Due to increases in strong motion databases in terms of the number and quality of the records in their metadata and the uncertainty characterization, several recently published empirical ground motion prediction models are eligible for seismic hazard assessment in France. We show that propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is feasible in a deterministic approach, as in a

  4. High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko

    2016-10-01

    We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

  5. Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

    2015-04-01

    Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the

  6. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  7. A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use ... regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. .... in quantifying liquefaction hazard potential is to.

  8. Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

    2015-04-01

    empirical relations with geotechnical index properties. Site specific information was regionalized at map scale by (hard and fuzzy) clustering analysis taking into account spatial variables such as: geology, geomorphology and hillslope morphometric variables (longitudinal and transverse curvature, flow accumulation and slope), the latter derived by a DEM with 10 m cell size. In order to map shallow landslide hazard, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for some common physically based models available in literature (eg. SINMAP, SHALSTAB, TRIGRS). Furthermore, a new approach based on the use of Bayesian Network was proposed and validated. Different models, such as Intervals, Convex Models and Fuzzy Sets, were adopted for the modelling of input parameters. Finally, an accuracy assessment was carried out on the resulting maps and the propagation of uncertainty of input parameters into the final shallow landslide hazard estimation was estimated. The outcomes of the analysis are compared and discussed in term of discrepancy among map pixel values and related estimated error. The novelty of the proposed method is on estimation of the confidence of the shallow landslides hazard mapping at regional level. This allows i) to discriminate regions where hazard assessment is robust from areas where more data are necessary to increase the confidence level and ii) to assess the reliability of the procedure used for hazard assessment.

  9. A Shear-Wave Seismic System to Look Ahead of a Tunnel Boring Machine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharadwaj, Pawan; Drijkoningen, G.G.; Mulder, W.A.; Tscharner, Thomas; Jenneskens, Rob

    2016-01-01

    The Earth’s properties, composition and structure ahead of a tunnel boring machine (TBM) should be mapped for hazard assessment during excavation. We study the use of seismic-exploration techniques for this purpose. We focus on a seismic system for soft soils, where shear waves are better and easier

  10. Geologic mapping as a prerequisite to hazardous waste facility siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaMoreaux, P.E.

    1993-01-01

    The nation's welfare is based on its capability to develop the mineral, water, and energy resources of the land. In addition, these resources must be developed with adequate consideration of environmental impact and the future welfare of the country. Geologic maps are an absolute necessity in the discovery and development of natural resources; for managing radioactive, toxic, and hazardous wastes; and for the assessment of hazards and risks such as those associated with volcanic action, earthquakes, landslides, and subsidence. Geologic maps are the basis for depicting rocks and rock materials, minerals, coal, oil, and water at or near the earth's surface. Hazardous waste facility projects require the preparation of detailed geologic maps. Throughout most of the USA, this type of mapping detail is not available. If these maps were available, it is estimated that the duration of an individual project could be reduced by at least one-fourth (1/4). Therefore, adequate site-specific mapping is required if one is to eliminate environmental problems associated with hazardous, toxic, radioactive, and municipal waste sites

  11. Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, Anthony; Kaskebes, Athanasios; Tselikas, Nikos

    2014-05-01

    We report on the development of new and online set of tools for use within Google Maps, for earthquake research. We demonstrate this server based and online platform (developped with PHP, Javascript, MySQL) with the new tools using a database system with earthquake data. The platform allows us to carry out statistical and deterministic analysis on earthquake data use of Google Maps and plot various seismicity graphs. The tool box has been extended to draw on the map line segments, multiple straight lines horizontally and vertically as well as multiple circles, including geodesic lines. The application is demonstrated using localized seismic data from the geographic region of Greece as well as other global earthquake data. The application also offers regional segmentation (NxN) which allows the studying earthquake clustering, and earthquake cluster shift within the segments in space. The platform offers many filters such for plotting selected magnitude ranges or time periods. The plotting facility allows statistically based plots such as cumulative earthquake magnitude plots and earthquake magnitude histograms, calculation of 'b' etc. What is novel for the platform is the additional deterministic tools. Using the newly developed horizontal and vertical line and circle tools we have studied the spatial distribution trends of many earthquakes and we here show for the first time the link between Fibonacci Numbers and spatiotemporal location of some earthquakes. The new tools are valuable for examining visualizing trends in earthquake research as it allows calculation of statistics as well as deterministic precursors. We plan to show many new results based on our newly developed platform.

  12. The MITMOTION Project - A seismic hazard overview of the Mitidja Basin (Northern Algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, José; Ouyed, Merzouk; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Idres, Mouloud; Caldeira, Bento; Boughacha, Mohamed; Carvalho, João; Samai, Saddek; Fontiela, João; Aissa, Saoussen; Benfadda, Amar; Chimouni, Redouane; Yalaoui, Rafik; Dias, Rui

    2017-04-01

    The Mitidja Basin (MB) is located in northern Algeria and is filled by quaternary sediments with a length of about 100 km on the EW direction and approximately 20 km width. This basin is limited to the south by the Boumerdes - Larbaa - Blida active fault system and to the north by the Thenia - Sahel fault system. Both fault systems are of the reverse type with opposed dips and accommodate a general slip rate of 4 mm/year. This basin is associated with important seismic events that affected northern Algeria since the historical period until the present. The available earthquake catalogues reported numerous destructive earthquakes that struke different regions, such as Algiers (1365, Io= X; 1716, Io = X). Recently, on May 2003 the Bourmedes earthquake (Mw = 6.9) affected the area of Zemmouri and caused 2.271 deaths. The event was caused by the reactivation of the MB boundary faults. The epicenter was located offshore and generated a maximum uplift of 0.8 m along the coast with a horizontal maximum slip of 0.24 m. Recent studies show that the Boumerdes earthquake overloaded the system of adjacent faults with a stress increase between 0.4 and 1.5 bar. This induced an increase of the seismic hazard potential of the region and recommends a more detailed study of this fault system. The high seismogenic potential of the fault system bordering the MB, the exposure to danger of the most densely populated region of Algiers and the amplification effect caused by the basin are the motivation for this project proposal that will focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard of the region. The general purpose of the project is to improve the seismic hazard assessment on the MB producing realistic predictions of strong ground motion caused by moderate and large earthquakes. To achieve this objective, it is important to make an effort in 3 directions: 1) the development of a detailed 3D velocity/structure model of the MB that includes geological constraints, seismic reflection data

  13. Seismic hazard for the Savannah River Site: A comparative evaluation of the EPRI and LLNL assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingo, H.E.

    1992-01-01

    This report was conducted to: (1) develop an understanding of causes for the vast differences between the two comprehensive studies, and (2) using a methodology consistent with the reconciled methods employed in the two studies, develop a single seismic hazard for the Savannah River Site suitable for use in seismic probabilistic risk assessments with emphasis on the K Reactor. Results are presented for a rock site which is a typical because detailed evaluations of soil characteristics at the K Reactor are still in progress that account for the effects of a soil stablizing grouting program. However when the soils analysis is completed, the effects of soils can be included with this analysis with the addition of a single factor that will decrease slightly the seismic hazard for a rock site

  14. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  15. Seismic source zone characterization for the seismic hazard assessment project PEGASOS by the Expert Group 2 (EG1b)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhard, M.; Gruenthal, G.

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the seismic hazard related to the four NNP sites in NW Switzerland was performed within the project PEGASOS. To account for the epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of the characterization of seismic source zones in the frame of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, four different expert teams have developed and defended their models in the frame of an intensive elicitation process. Here, the results of one out of four expert groups are presented. The model of this team is based first of all on considerations regarding the large scale tectonics in the context of the Alpine collision, and neotectonic constraints for defining seismic source zones. This leads to a large scale subdivision based on the structural 'architectural' considerations with little input from the present seismicity. Each of the eight large zones was characterized by the style of present-day faulting, fault orientation, and hypo central depth distribution. A further subdivision of the larger zones is performed based on information provided by the seismicity patterns. 58 small source zones have been defined in this way, each of them characterized by the available tectonic constrains, as well as the pros and cons of different existing geologic views connected to them. Of special concern in this respect were the discussion regarding thin skinned vs. thick skinned tectonics, the tectonic origin of the 1356 Basel earthquake, the role of the Permo-Carboniferous graben structures, and finally the seismogenic orientation of faults with respect to the recent crustal stress field. The uncertainties connected to the delimitations of the small source zones have been handled in form of their regrouping, formalized by the logic tree technique. The maximum magnitudes were estimated as discretized probability distribution functions. After de-clustering the used ECOS earthquake catalogue and an analysis of data completeness as a function of time the parameters of the

  16. Evaluation of seismic hazard of the Gökova bay in terms of seismotectonics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erkoç, Ebru Aktepe, E-mail: ebru.aktepe@deu.edu.tr [The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir-Turkey (Turkey); Uluğ, Atilla, E-mail: atilla.ulug@deu.edu.tr [Institute of Marine Science and Technology, Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir-Turkey (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    While discovering the seismicity of our country, knowing the array of earthquake occurrence which reflects the characteristic tectonic features of each region makes vital contributions to the earthquakes that have occurred and to the pursuit of the processes which might occur in the future. When considering the region’s seismic activity, the presence of active faults that create earthquake within the bay is obvious. Many active fault parts in the Gulf of Gökova region continues their seismic activity with the opening effect that is generally prevailing in Western Anatolia. The region has generally been continuing its seismic activity under the control of normal faults. Considering the marine studies that are made and marine continuity of the faults which are on land in addition to the seismological and tectonic studies, the determination of seismic hazard in the Gulf of Gökova and its surroundings is also important in terms of introducing the earthquake scenarios with minimized errors.

  17. Evaluation of seismic hazard of the Gökova bay in terms of seismotectonics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkoç, Ebru Aktepe; Uluğ, Atilla

    2016-01-01

    While discovering the seismicity of our country, knowing the array of earthquake occurrence which reflects the characteristic tectonic features of each region makes vital contributions to the earthquakes that have occurred and to the pursuit of the processes which might occur in the future. When considering the region’s seismic activity, the presence of active faults that create earthquake within the bay is obvious. Many active fault parts in the Gulf of Gökova region continues their seismic activity with the opening effect that is generally prevailing in Western Anatolia. The region has generally been continuing its seismic activity under the control of normal faults. Considering the marine studies that are made and marine continuity of the faults which are on land in addition to the seismological and tectonic studies, the determination of seismic hazard in the Gulf of Gökova and its surroundings is also important in terms of introducing the earthquake scenarios with minimized errors.

  18. Seismic hazard assessment for Central, North and Northwest Europe: GSHAP Region 3

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grunthal, G.; Bosse, Ch.; Camelbeeck, T.; de Crook, T.; Gariel, J. C.; Gregersen, S.; Guterch, B.; Halldorsson, P.; Labák, P.; Lindholm, C.; Lenhardt, W.; Mantyniemi, P.; Mayer-Rosa, D.; Musson, R. M. W.; Schenk, Vladimír; Schenková, Zdeňka; Slejko, D.; Verbeiren, R.; Wahlstrom, R.; Zabukovec, B.; Ziros, T.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 6 (1999), s. 999-1011 ISSN 0365-2556 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  19. Worldwide Assessment of the Status of Seismic Zonation, Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation, Proceedings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, W.W.

    1994-01-01

    We are pleased to provide you with information developed for the Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation which will be convened in two locations year in conjunction two major international meetings. The objectives are: 1) to assess the status of seismic zonation in every country of the world, 2) to evaluate the reasons for advances and new initiatives, and 3) to foster continued cooperation. Seismic zonation is the process that leads to risk reduction and sustainability of new development. It is based on the division of a geographic region into smaller areas or zones on the basis of an integrated assessment of the hazard, built, and policy environments of the region. Seismic zonation depends on hazard mapping performed on national/regional, subregional, and urban (i.e., microzonation) scales depending on the particular application. We gratefully acknowledge the written communications of many professionals who responded to our request for information. Also, we acknowledge the use of information contained in five valuable reports (see directories in the Appendices for information on where to obtain copies of the reports): 1. United Nations, 1990, Cooperative Project for Seismic Risk Reduction in the Mediterranean Region (SEISMED), proceedings, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland, 3 vols. (Franco Maranzana -

  20. Hazard Monitoring of Growing Lava Flow Fields Using Seismic Tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eibl, E. P. S.; Bean, C. J.; Jónsdottir, I.; Hoskuldsson, A.; Thordarson, T.; Coppola, D.; Witt, T.; Walter, T. R.

    2017-12-01

    An effusive eruption in 2014/15 created a 85 km2 large lava flow field in a remote location in the Icelandic highlands. The lava flows did not threaten any settlements or paved roads but they were nevertheless interdisciplinarily monitored in detail. Images from satellites and aircraft, ground based video monitoring, GPS and seismic recordings allowed the monitoring and reconstruction of a detailed time series of the growing lava flow field. While the use of satellite images and probabilistic modelling of lava flows are quite common tools to monitor the current and forecast the future growth direction, here we show that seismic recordings can be of use too. We installed a cluster of seismometers at 15 km from the vents and recorded the ground vibrations associated with the eruption. This seismic tremor was not only generated below the vents, but also at the edges of the growing lava flow field and indicated the parts of the lava flow field that were most actively growing. Whilst the time resolution is in the range of days for satellites, seismic stations easily sample continuously at 100 Hz and could therefore provide a much better resolution and estimate of the lava flow hazard in real-time.

  1. The Seismotectonic Map of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meghraoui, Mustapha

    2015-04-01

    We present the Seismotectonic Map of Africa based on a geological, geophysical and geodetic database including the instrumental seismicity and re-appraisal of large historical events with harmonization and homogenization of earthquake parameters in catalogues. Although the seismotectonic framework and mapping of the African continent is a difficult task, several previous and ongoing projects provide a wealth of data and outstanding results. The database of large and moderate earthquakes in different geological domains includes the coseismic and Quaternary faulting that reveals the complex nature of the active tectonics in Africa. The map also benefits from previous works on local and regional seismotectonic maps that needed to be integrated with the lithospheric and upper mantle structures from tomographic anisotropy and gravity anomaly into a continental framework. The synthesis of earthquake and volcanic studies with the analysis of long-term (late Quaternary) and short-term (last decades and centuries) active deformation observed with geodetic and other approaches presented along with the seismotectonic map serves as a basis for hazard calculations and the reduction of seismic risks. The map may also be very useful in the assessment of seismic hazard and mitigation of earthquake risk for significant infrastructures and their implications in the socio-economic impact in Africa. In addition, the constant population increase and infrastructure growth in the continent that exacerbate the earthquake risk justify the necessity for a continuous updating of the seismotectonic map. The database and related map are prepared in the framework of the IGC Project-601 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazards in Africa" of UNESCO-IUGS, funded by the Swedish International Development Agency and UNESCO-Nairobi for a period of 4 years (2011 - 2014), extended to 2016. * Mustapha Meghraoui (Coordinator) EOST - IPG Strasbourg CNRS-UMR 7516 m.meghraoui@unistra.fr corresponding author

  2. 3D Modelling of Seismically Active Parts of Underground Faults via Seismic Data Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Konstantaras, Anthony

    2015-04-01

    During the last few years rapid steps have been taken towards drilling for oil in the western Mediterranean sea. Since most of the countries in the region benefit mainly from tourism and considering that the Mediterranean is a closed sea only replenishing its water once every ninety years careful measures are being taken to ensure safe drilling. In that concept this research work attempts to derive a three dimensional model of the seismically active parts of the underlying underground faults in areas of petroleum interest. For that purpose seismic spatio-temporal clustering has been applied to seismic data to identify potential distinct seismic regions in the area of interest. Results have been coalesced with two dimensional maps of underground faults from past surveys and seismic epicentres, having followed careful reallocation processing, have been used to provide information regarding the vertical extent of multiple underground faults in the region of interest. The end product is a three dimensional map of the possible underground location and extent of the seismically active parts of underground faults. Indexing terms: underground faults modelling, seismic data mining, 3D visualisation, active seismic source mapping, seismic hazard evaluation, dangerous phenomena modelling Acknowledgment This research work is supported by the ESPA Operational Programme, Education and Life Long Learning, Students Practical Placement Initiative. References [1] Alves, T.M., Kokinou, E. and Zodiatis, G.: 'A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins', Marine Pollution Bulletin, In Press, 2014 [2] Ciappa, A., Costabile, S.: 'Oil spill hazard assessment using a reverse trajectory method for the Egadi marine protected area (Central Mediterranean Sea)', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 84 (1-2), pp. 44-55, 2014 [3] Ganas, A., Karastathis, V., Moshou, A., Valkaniotis, S., Mouzakiotis

  3. Geomorphological hazards and environmental impact: Assessment and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizza, Mario

    In five sections the author develops the methods for the integration of geomorphological concepts into Environmental Impact and Mapping. The first section introduces the concepts of Impact and Risk through the relationships between Geomorphological Environment and Anthropical Element. The second section proposes a methodology for the determination of Geomorphological Hazard and the identification of Geomorphological Risk. The third section synthesizes the procedure for the compilation of a Geomorphological Hazards Map. The fourth section outlines the concepts of Geomorphological Resource Assessment for the analysis of the Environmental Impact. The fifth section considers the contribution of geomorphological studies and mapping in the procedure for Environmental Impact Assessment.

  4. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Codes Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J B

    2003-01-01

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time-period. LLNL has been developing the methodology and codes in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) needs for reviews of site licensing of nuclear power plants, since 1978. A number of existing computer codes have been validated and still can lead to ranges of hazard estimates in some cases. Until now, the seismic hazard community had not agreed on any specific method for evaluation of these codes. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) and the Pacific Engineering Earthquake Research (PEER) center organized an exercise in testing of existing codes with the aim of developing a series of standard tests that future developers could use to evaluate and calibrate their own codes. Seven code developers participated in the exercise, on a voluntary basis. Lawrence Livermore National laboratory participated with some support from the NRC. The final product of the study will include a series of criteria for judging of the validity of the results provided by a computer code. This EERI/PEER project was first planned to be completed by June of 2003. As the group neared completion of the tests, the managing team decided that new tests were necessary. As a result, the present report documents only the work performed to this point. It demonstrates that the computer codes developed by LLNL perform all calculations correctly and as intended. Differences exist between the results of the codes tested, that are attributed to a series of assumptions, on the parameters and models, that the developers had to make. The managing team is planning a new series of tests to help in reaching a consensus on these assumptions

  5. Landslides Hazard Assessment Using Different Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coman Cristina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Romania represents one of Europe’s countries with high landslides occurrence frequency. Landslide hazard maps are designed by considering the interaction of several factors which, by their joint action may affect the equilibrium state of the natural slopes. The aim of this paper is landslides hazard assessment using the methodology provided by the Romanian national legislation and a very largely used statistical method. The final results of these two analyses are quantitative or semi-quantitative landslides hazard maps, created in geographic information system environment. The data base used for this purpose includes: geological and hydrogeological data, digital terrain model, hydrological data, land use, seismic action, anthropic action and an inventory of active landslides. The GIS landslides hazard models were built for the geographical area of the Iasi city, located in the north-east side of Romania.

  6. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  7. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  8. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  9. Seismic Hazard Assessment and Uncertainties Treatment: Discussion on the current French regulation, practices and open issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Taking into account the seismic risk in the context of nuclear safety in France is guided by the Fundamental Safety Rule (RFS2001-01) for the assessment of seismic hazard, and by the Guide ASN/2/01 for the design rules of civil engineering structures. These two references have been updated respectively in 2001 and 2006 and validated by the Nuclear Safety Authority. The French approach is anchored on a deterministic approach. We propose to recall the principles of the methodology recommended by the RFS 2001-01, and to illustrate the advantages and limitations highlighted in recent years. Indeed, this regulatory framework is used both in the design stage and for safety reassessment of all nuclear facilities, power reactors and experimental laboratories and factories. We focus on: (i) key parameters of the approach, and their level of knowledge, (ii) key steps and principles that lead to a non-homogeneous approach between various geographic sites, depending on the seismic activity and / or knowledge, (iii) on physical phenomena (such as the geometric extension of the seismic source, the complexity of earthquake rupture on the fault plane) that are not taken into account, or for which (2D and 3D site effects, and non-linear soil behavior under strong motions), the RFS 2001-01 approach does not provide any guidance, (iv) consideration of epistemic and random uncertainties. We discuss also the probabilistic approaches widely implemented both in France as recently to establish the seismic zoning (reference for the regulation of conventional building and classified installations for the environment), used worldwide and strongly supported by the international Atomic Energy Agency references (safety guides and guidelines). The Tohoku earthquake that occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, triggering the tsunami that itself caused the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi site has resulted in the realization in France of the Complementary Safety Studies as a request of the

  10. Modelling Multi Hazard Mapping in Semarang City Using GIS-Fuzzy Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, A. L.; Awaluddin, M.; Sasmito, B.

    2018-02-01

    One important aspect of disaster mitigation planning is hazard mapping. Hazard mapping can provide spatial information on the distribution of locations that are threatened by disaster. Semarang City as the capital of Central Java Province is one of the cities with high natural disaster intensity. Frequent natural disasters Semarang city is tidal flood, floods, landslides, and droughts. Therefore, Semarang City needs spatial information by doing multi hazard mapping to support disaster mitigation planning in Semarang City. Multi Hazards map modelling can be derived from parameters such as slope maps, rainfall, land use, and soil types. This modelling is done by using GIS method with scoring and overlay technique. However, the accuracy of modelling would be better if the GIS method is combined with Fuzzy Logic techniques to provide a good classification in determining disaster threats. The Fuzzy-GIS method will build a multi hazards map of Semarang city can deliver results with good accuracy and with appropriate threat class spread so as to provide disaster information for disaster mitigation planning of Semarang city. from the multi-hazard modelling using GIS-Fuzzy can be known type of membership that has a good accuracy is the type of membership Gauss with RMSE of 0.404 the smallest of the other membership and VAF value of 72.909% of the largest of the other membership.

  11. Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-04-01

    Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

  12. Preliminary proposed seismic design and evaluation criteria for new and existing underground hazardous materials storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1991-01-01

    The document provides a recommended set of deterministic seismic design and evaluation criteria for either new or existing underground hazardous materials storage tanks placed in either the high hazard or moderate hazard usage catagories of UCRL-15910. The criteria given herein are consistent with and follow the same philosophy as those given in UCRL-15910 for the US Department of Energy facilities. This document is intended to supplement and amplify upon Reference 1 for underground hazardous materials storage tanks

  13. Atlas of Wenchuan-Earthquake Geohazards : Analysis of co-seismic and post-seismic Geohazards in the area affected by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Chuan; van Westen, C.J.

    2018-01-01

    This atlas provides basic information and overviews of the occurrence of co-seismic landslides, the subsequent rainstorm-induced debris flows, and the methods used for hazard and risk assessment in the Wenchuan-earthquake affected area. The atlas pages are illustrated with maps, photos and graphs,

  14. Deterministic Earthquake Hazard Assessment by Public Agencies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mualchin, L.

    2005-12-01

    Even in its short recorded history, California has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes that have resulted in new codes and other legislation for public safety. In particular, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake produced some of the most lasting results such as the Hospital Safety Act, the Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, the Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zone Act, and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans') fault-based deterministic seismic hazard (DSH) map. The latter product provides values for earthquake ground motions based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs), defined as the largest earthquakes that can reasonably be expected on faults in the current tectonic regime. For surface fault rupture displacement hazards, detailed study of the same faults apply. Originally, hospital, dam, and other critical facilities used seismic design criteria based on deterministic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA). However, probabilistic methods grew and took hold by introducing earthquake design criteria based on time factors and quantifying "uncertainties", by procedures such as logic trees. These probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) ignored the DSH approach. Some agencies were influenced to adopt only the PSHA method. However, deficiencies in the PSHA method are becoming recognized, and the use of the method is now becoming a focus of strong debate. Caltrans is in the process of producing the fourth edition of its DSH map. The reason for preferring the DSH method is that Caltrans believes it is more realistic than the probabilistic method for assessing earthquake hazards that may affect critical facilities, and is the best available method for insuring public safety. Its time-invariant values help to produce robust design criteria that are soundly based on physical evidence. And it is the method for which there is the least opportunity for unwelcome surprises.

  15. Sustainability-Based Flood Hazard Mapping of the Swannanoa River Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available An integrated framework is presented for sustainability-based flood hazard mapping of the Swannanoa River watershed in the state of North Carolina, U.S. The framework uses a hydrologic model for rainfall–runoff transformation, a two-dimensional unsteady hydraulic model flood simulation and a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making technique for flood hazard mapping. Economic, social, and environmental flood hazards are taken into account. The importance of each hazard is quantified through a survey to the experts. Utilizing the proposed framework, sustainability-based flood hazard mapping is performed for the 100-year design event. As a result, the overall flood hazard is provided in each geographic location. The sensitivity of the overall hazard with respect to the weights of the three hazard components were also investigated. While the conventional flood management approach is to assess the environmental impacts of mitigation measures after a set of feasible options are selected, the presented framework incorporates the environmental impacts into the analysis concurrently with the economic and social influences. Thereby, it provides a more sustainable perspective of flood management and can greatly help the decision makers to make better-informed decisions by clearly understanding the impacts of flooding on economy, society and environment.

  16. Seismic ground motion and hazard assessment of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, southeastern Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amponsah, P.E.; Banoeng-Yakubo, B.K.; Asiedu, D.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-08-01

    The seismic ground motion of the Greater Accra Metropolitan area has been computed and the hazard zones assessed using a deterministic hybrid approach based on the modal summation and finite difference methods. The seismic ground motion along four profiles located in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area has been modelled using the 1939 earthquake of magnitude 6.5(M L ) as the scenario earthquake. Synthetic seismic waveforms from which parameters for engineering design such as peak ground acceleration, velocity and spectral amplifications have been produced along the geological cross sections. From the seismograms computed, the seismic hazard of the metropolis, expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity have been estimated. The peak ground acceleration estimated in the study ranges from 0.14 - 0.57 g and the peak ground velocity from 9.2 - 37.1cms -1 . The presence of low velocity sediments gave rise to high peak values and amplifications. The maximum peak ground accelerations estimated are located in areas with low velocity formations such as colluvium, continental and marine deposits. Areas in the metropolis underlain by unconsolidated sediments have been classified as the maximum damage potential zone and those underlain by highly consolidated geological materials are classified as low damage potential zone. The results of the numerical simulation have been extended to all areas in the metropolis with similar geological formation. (author)

  17. Seismic facies analysis from pre-stack data using self-organizing maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kourki, Meysam; Ali Riahi, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    In facies analysis, seismic data are clustered in different groups. Each group represents subsurface points with similar physical properties. Different groups can be related to differences in lithology, physical properties of rocks and fluid changes in the rocks. The supervised and unsupervised data clustering are known as two types of clustering architecture. In supervised clustering, the number of clusters is predefined, while in unsupervised clustering, a collection of patterns partitions into groups without predefined clusters. In this study, the pre-stack data clustering is used for seismic facies analysis. In this way, a horizon was selected from pre-stack data, followed by sorting of data using offset. A trace associated with each CDP is constructed, for which the first and second samples are related to the first and second offsets, respectively. The created trace is called consolidated trace which is characteristic of subsurface points. These consolidated traces are clustered by using self-organizing maps (SOM). In proposed pre-stack seismic data clustering, points with similar physical properties are placed in one cluster. Seismic data associated with hydrocarbon reservoirs have very different characteristics that are easily recognized. The efficiency of the proposed method was tested on both synthetic and real seismic data. The results showed that the algorithm improves the data classification and the points of different properties are noticeable in final maps. (paper)

  18. The Making of a Tsunami Hazard Map: Lessons Learned from the TSUMAPS-NEAM Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basili, R.

    2017-12-01

    Following the worldwide surge of awareness toward tsunami hazard and risk in the last decade, Europe has promoted a better understanding of the tsunami phenomenon through research projects (e.g. TRANSFER, ASTARTE) and started programs for preventing the tsunami impact along the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region (e.g. the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System, NEAMTWS, coordinated by IOC/UNESCO). An indispensable tool toward long-term coastal planning and an effective design and subsequent use of TWS is the availability of a comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The TSUMAPS-NEAM project took the pledge of producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous PTHA map from earthquake sources. The hazard assessment was built upon state-of-the-art procedures and standards, enriched by some rather innovative/experimental approaches such as: (1) the statistical treatment of potential seismic sources, combining all the available information (seismicity, moment tensors, tectonics), and considering earthquakes occurring on major crustal faults and subduction interfaces; (2) an intensive computational approach to tsunami generation and linear propagation across the sea up to an offshore fixed depth; (3) the use of approximations for shoaling and inundation, based on local bathymetry, and for tidal stages; and (4) the exploration of several alternatives for the basic input data and their parameters which produces a number of models that are treated through an ensemble uncertainty quantification. This presentation will summarize the TSUMAPS-NEAM project goals, implementation, and achieved results, as well as the humps and bumps we run into during its development. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

  19. A New Methodology for Decreasing Uncertainties in the Seismic Hazard Assessment Results by Using Sensitivity Analysis. An Application to Sites in Eastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giner, J. J.; Molina, S.; Jáuregui, P.; Delgado, J.

    - In this study a sensitivity analysis has been carried out by means of the seismic hazard results obtained using the non-zoning methodology (Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the extreme value distribution functions proposed by Gumbel (1958), via a logic tree procedure. The aim of the sensitivity analysis is to identify the input parameters that have the largest impact on assessed hazard and its uncertainty. The research findings from the study of these parameters can serve as a useful guide to facilitate further research studies on seismic hazard evaluations because it allows us to identify parameters that have little or no effect on the seismic hazard results as well as parameters that have great effects on them. In this way, using the obtained results, we have proposed objective criteria in assigning probabilities to the different logic tree branches in a more objective way. It should be noted that, although the sensitivity of the logic tree branches depends on the site, it does not always do so in the same way. Finally, re-evaluation of seismic hazard using the proposed methodology applied to eastern Spain leads to a reduction of uncertainty from 52% to 27% of the expected acceleration with 10% probability of exceedence, at the site with the highest value of seismic hazard (Site 1: Torrevieja).

  20. Development of methodology and computer programs for the ground response spectrum and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Joon Kyoung [Semyung Univ., Research Institute of Industrial Science and Technol , Jecheon (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-12-15

    Objective of this study is to investigate and develop the methodologies and corresponding computer codes, compatible to the domestic seismological and geological environments, for estimating ground response spectrum and probabilistic seismic hazard. Using the PSHA computer program, the Cumulative Probability Functions(CPDF) and Probability Functions (PDF) of the annual exceedence have been investigated for the analysis of the uncertainty space of the annual probability at ten interested seismic hazard levels (0.1 g to 0.99 g). The cumulative provability functions and provability functions of the annual exceedence have been also compared to those results from the different input parameter spaces.

  1. Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

    2013-02-01

    A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

  2. Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur D.

    2011-01-01

    This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great

  3. Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

    2017-08-01

    Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

  4. Prospects and pitfalls of occupational hazard mapping: 'between these lines there be dragons'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kirsten A; Volckens, John

    2011-10-01

    Hazard data mapping is a promising new technique that can enhance the process of occupational exposure assessment and risk communication. Hazard maps have the potential to improve worker health by providing key input for the design of hazard intervention and control strategies. Hazard maps are developed with aid from direct-reading instruments, which can collect highly spatially and temporally resolved data in a relatively short period of time. However, quantifying spatial-temporal variability in the occupational environment is not a straightforward process, and our lack of understanding of how to ascertain and model spatial and temporal variability is a limiting factor in the use and interpretation of workplace hazard maps. We provide an example of how sources of and exposures to workplace hazards may be mischaracterized in a hazard map due to a lack of completeness and representativeness of collected measurement data. Based on this example, we believe that a major priority for research in this emerging area should focus on the development of a statistical framework to quantify uncertainty in spatially and temporally varying data. In conjunction with this need is one for the development of guidelines and procedures for the proper sampling, generation, and evaluation of workplace hazard maps.

  5. Differences in Approach between Nuclear and Conventional Seismic Standards with regard to Hazard Definition - CSNI Integrity And Ageing Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djaoudi, Ali; Labbe, Pierre; Murphy, Andrew; Kitada, Yoshio

    2008-01-01

    The Committee on the safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) of the OECD-NEA co-ordinates the NEA activities related to maintaining and advancing the scientific and technological knowledge base of the safety of nuclear installations. The Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures Working Group of the CSNI is responsible for work related to the development and use of methods, data and information to assess the behaviour of materials and structures. It has three sub-groups, dealing with the integrity of metal components and structures, ageing of concrete structures, and the seismic behaviour of structures. The CSNI, at its meeting in June 2003, agreed to initiate an activity aimed to identify any difference between nuclear and non-nuclear conventional standards and their potential significance with regard to seismic hazards and design methods. There was a perception, mainly in some of the European countries that nuclear seismic hazard and design standards may be lagging behind developments in similar standards for conventional facilities. Adequate answer to such perception, need the examination of the following aspects and their significance on the seismic assessment of structures and components: - The safety philosophy behind the seismic nuclear and conventional standards. - The differences in approach regarding the seismic hazard definition. - The difference in approach regarding the design and the methods of analysis. These topics are examined in this report. Appendices A to H of this report contain a brief description of the conventional and the nuclear approaches in the NEA member countries: Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Spain,and USA. The following general conclusions can be drawn: - The approach adopted by the nuclear seismic standards is more conservative and more reliable (in particular for meeting the continued operation criteria) than the recommended by the currently applicable force based conventional seismic codes

  6. Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

    2018-01-01

    Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

  7. Quantitative Mapping of Precursory Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neukomm, S.; Wiemer, S.; Giardini, D.

    2002-12-01

    A relative decrease of aftershock activity before the occurrence of large aftershocks to M6+ mainshocks is one of only few earthquake precursors accepted for the IASPEI preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors. If one considers earthquake rate to be dependent on stressing rate, aftershocks sequences offer in fact an ideal environment to detect precursory quiescence before large earthquakes: The numerous aftershocks allow a much higher spatial and temporal resolution of transients in seismicity than possible with the average background rate of micro-earthquakes. Past studies of precursory quiescence before larger aftershocks, however, have largely been based on bulk value. The aim of this study is to map the temporal and spatial variability of activity rate within several rich aftershock sequences, and, possibly, exploit the results for improving real time probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment. We introduce a new algorithm based on fitting the modified Omori law to the aftershock sequences. At arbitrarily chosen grid points, the Omori parameters of the sub-samples containing all aftershock within 5 or 10 km of the node are estimated at time t. We calculate the number of aftershocks N +/- dN in the time interval t + dt using the relevant four Omori parameters (p, c and k) parameters and their corresponding standard deviations estimated using a bootstrap analysis. The difference between the forecasted and the observed number of aftershocks, normalized by the standard deviation of the forecast, is our estimator of rate change. The algorithm is tested on synthetic aftershock sequences containing artificial quiescences in order to calibrate the free parameters for optimal detection of precursory quiescence. We then perform our spatial and temporal mapping for several prominent Californian and Japanese aftershock sequences (Landers, Hector Mine, Northridge, Loma Prieta, Kobe, Western Tottori and Hokkaido). Preliminary results suggest that we cannot

  8. Using hazard maps to identify and eliminate workplace hazards: a union-led health and safety training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joe; Collins, Michele; Devlin, John; Renner, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The Institute for Sustainable Work and Environment and the Utility Workers Union of America worked with a professional evaluator to design, implement, and evaluate the results of a union-led system of safety-based hazard identification program that trained workers to use hazard maps to identify workplace hazards and target them for elimination. The evaluation documented program implementation and impact using data collected from both qualitative interviews and an on-line survey from worker trainers, plant managers, and health and safety staff. Managers and workers reported that not only were many dangerous hazards eliminated as a result of hazard mapping, some of which were long-standing, difficult-to-resolve issues, but the evaluation also documented improved communication between union members and management that both workers and managers agreed resulted in better, more sustainable hazard elimination.

  9. Geologic aspects of seismic hazards assessment at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, southeastern Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.P.; Hackett, W.R.; Rodgers, D.W.

    1989-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), located on the northwestern side of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), lies in an area influenced by two distinct geologic provinces. The ESRP province is a northeast-trending zone of late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism which transects the northwest-trending, block-fault mountain ranges of the Basin and Range province. An understanding of the interaction of these two provinces is important for realistic geologic hazards assessment. Of particular importance for seismic hazards analysis is the relationship of volcanic rift zones on the ESRP to basin-and-range faults north of the plain. The Arco Rift Zone, a 20-km-long belt of deformation and volcanism on the plain just west of the INEL, is colinear with the basin-and-range Lost River fault. Recent field studies have demonstrated that Arco Rift Zone deformation is typical of that induced by dike injection in other volcanic rift zones. The deformation is characterized by a predominance of dilational fissuring with less extensive development of faults and grabens. Cumulative vertical displacements over the past 0.6 Ma are an order of magnitude lower than those associated with the Arco Segment of the Lost River fault to the northwest. The evidence suggests that the northeast-directed extension that produces the block fault mountains of the Basin and Range is expressed by dike injection and volcanic rift zone development in the ESRP. Seismicity associated with dike injection during rift zone development is typically of low magnitude and would represent only minor hazard compared to that associated with the block faulting. Since the ESRP responds to extension in a manner distinct from basin-and-range faulting, it is not appropriate to consider the volcanic rift zones as extensions of basin-and-range faults for seismic hazard analysis

  10. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher

    2018-02-01

    Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the

  11. A national seismographic network for assessing seismic hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.P.; Murphy, A.J.

    1989-01-01

    To access the seismic hazard of a region and to establish the design and construction criteria for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, detailed information is required on the frequency of occurrence, geographical distribution, magnitude, and energy spectra of earthquakes. Also important is information on the frequency-dependent attenuation of seismic waves. This information can all be obtained from data recorded by networks of seismograph stations. A new seismograph network for the US which takes advantage of advances in technology is currently under development. This network is the US National Seismograph Network (USNSN). The USNSN is a cooperative effort between the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological survey and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The USNSN will be installed and operated by the NEIC. The network will consist of approximately 150 seismograph stations distributed across the lower 48 states and across Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The design goal for the network is the on-scale recording by at least five well-distributed stations of any event of magnitude 2.5 or larger in the continental US, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, and of any event of magnitude 3.5 or larger in Alaska. The rapid access to all USNSN data will be provided by the NEIC. This will be accomplished both via a dial-up capability to the event waveform data base and by satellite transmission in a broadcast mode. All earthquake data will also be distributed on compact disk with read only memory (CD-ROM) to all institutions having an interest in the seismic data

  12. Deformation patterns and seismic hazard along the eastern Sunda margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Heidrun; Djajadihardja, Yusuf; Flueh, Ernst R.; Hindle, David; Klaeschen, Dirk; Mueller, Christian; Planert, Lars; Reichert, Christian; Shulgin, Alexey; Wittwer, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    The eastern Sunda margin offshore Java, Bali, Lombok and Sumba is the site of oceanic subduction of the Indo-Australian plate underneath the Indonesian archipelago. Data from a suite of geophysical experiments conducted between 1997-2006 using RV SONNE as platform include seismic and seismological studies, potential field measurements and high-resolution seafloor bathymetry mapping. Tomographic inversions provide an image of the ongoing deformation of the forearc and the deep subsurface. We investigate the role of various key mechanisms that shape the first-order features characterizing the present margin architecture. Our contribution evaluates the differences in architecture and evolution along the Java forearc from a marine perspective to better understand the variation in tectonic styles and segmentation of the convergent margin, including its seismic risk potential.

  13. Geo hazard studies and their policy implications in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    Nicaragua, situated at the Central American Subduction zone and placed in the trajectory of tropical storms and hurricanes, is a frequent showplace of natural disasters which have multiplied the negative effects of a long term socioeconomic crisis leaving Nicaragua currently as the second poorest country of the Americas. In the last years, multiple efforts were undertaken to prevent or mitigate the affectation of the natural phenomena to the country. National and local authorities have become more involved in disaster prevention policy and international cooperation boosted funding for disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the country. The National Geosciences Institution (INETER) in cooperation with foreign partners developed a national monitoring and early warning system on geological and hydro-meteorological phenomena. Geological and risk mapping projects were conducted by INETER and international partners. Universities, NGO´s, International Technical Assistance, and foreign scientific groups cooperated to capacitate Nicaraguan geoscientists and to improve higher education on disaster prevention up to the master degree. Funded by a World Bank loan, coordinated by the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) and scientifically supervised by INETER, multidisciplinary hazard and vulnerability studies were carried out between 2003 and 2005 with emphasis on seismic hazard. These GIS based works provided proposals for land use policies on a local level in 30 municipalities and seismic vulnerability and risk information for each single building in Managua, Capital of Nicaragua. Another large multidisciplinary project produced high resolution air photos, elaborated 1:50,000 vectorized topographic maps, and a digital elevation model for Western Nicaragua. These data, integrated in GIS, were used to assess: 1) Seismic Hazard for Metropolitan Managua; 2) Tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast; 3) Volcano hazard for Telica

  14. Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciro Del Negro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lava-flow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.

  15. Haz-Map: Information on Hazardous Chemicals and Occupational Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Help Glossary References About Us Search Hazardous Agents Occupational Diseases High Risk Jobs Non-Occupational Activities Industries Job ... Findings Haz-Map®: Information on Hazardous Chemicals and Occupational Diseases by Jay A. Brown, M.D., M.P. ...

  16. Directions of the US Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Reduction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, G.F.

    1993-01-01

    The US Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Reduction Program includes studies of landslide process and prediction, landslide susceptibility and risk mapping, landslide recurrence and slope evolution, and research application and technology transfer. Studies of landslide processes have been recently conducted in Virginia, Utah, California, Alaska, and Hawaii, Landslide susceptibility maps provide a very important tool for landslide hazard reduction. The effects of engineering-geologic characteristics of rocks, seismic activity, short and long-term climatic change on landslide recurrence are under study. Detailed measurement of movement and deformation has begun on some active landslides. -from Author

  17. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  18. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  19. Seismic hazard characterization of 69 nuclear plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains: Results and discussion for the Batch 4 sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.L.; Savy, J.B.; Mensing, R.W.; Chen, J.C.

    1989-01-01

    The EUS Seismic Hazard Characterization Project (SHC) is the outgrowth of an earlier study performed as part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Systematic Evaluation Program (SEP). The objectives of the SHC were: (1) to develop a seismic hazard characterization methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains (EUS), and (2) the application of the methodology to 69 site locations, some of them with several local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analyses. An important aspect of the elicitation of the expert opinion process was the holding of two feedback meetings with all the experts in order to finalize the methodology and the input data bases. The hazard estimates are reported in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damping velocity response spectra (PSV). A total of eight volumes make up this report which contains a thorough description of the methodology, the expert opinion's elicitation process, the input data base as well as a discussion, comparison and summary volume (Volume 6). Consistent with previous analyses, this study finds that there are large uncertainties associated with the estimates of seismic hazard in the EUS, and it identifies the ground motion modeling as the prime contributor to those uncertainties. This document, Volume 5, provides the seismic hazard estimates for the 17 sites in ''Batch 4''

  20. Approach to seismic hazard analysis for dam safety in the Sierra Nevada and Modoc Plateau of California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savage, W.U.; McLaren, M.K.; Edwards, W.D.; Page, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Pacific Gas and Electric Company's hydroelectric generating system involves about 150 dams located in the Sierra Nevada and Modoc Plateau region of central and northern California. The utility's strategy for earthquake hazard assessment is described. The approach includes the following strategies: integrating regional tectonics, seismic geology, historical seismicity, microseismicity, and crustal structure to form a comprehensive regional understanding of the neotectonic setting; performing local studies to acquire data as needed to reduce uncertainties in geologic and seismic parameters of fault characteristics near specific dam sites; applying and extending recently developed geologic, seismologic, and earthquake engineering technologies to the current regional and site-specific information to evaluate fault characteristics, to estimate maximum earthquakes, and to characterize ground motion; and encouraging multiple independent reviews of earthquake hazard studies by conducting peer reviews, making field sites available to regulating agencies, and publishing results, methods and data in open literature. 46 refs., 8 tabs

  1. Site Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Surrounding Communities of The Geysers Geothermal Development Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, M.; Hutchings, L. J.; Savy, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    We conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis from induced and tectonic earthquakes for a 50 km radius area centered on The Geysers, California and for the next ten years. We calculate hazard with both a conventional and physics-based approach. We estimate site specific hazard. We convert hazard to risk of nuisance and damage to structures per year and map the risk. For the conventional PSHA we assume the past ten years is indicative of hazard for the next ten years from Mnoise. Then, we interpolate within each geologic unit in finely gridded points. All grid points within a unit are weighted by distance from each data collection point. The entire process is repeated for all of the other types of geologic units until the entire area is gridded and assigned a hazard value for every grid points. We found that nuisance and damage risks calculated by both conventional and physics-based approaches provided almost identical results. This is very surprising since they were calculated by completely independent means. The conventional approach used the actual catalog of the past ten years of earthquakes to estimate the hazard for the next ten year. While the physics-based approach used geotechnical modeling to calculate the catalog for the next ten years. Similarly, for the conventional PSHA, we utilized attenuation relations from past earthquakes recorded at the Geysers to translate the ground motion from the source to the site. While for the physics-based approach we calculated ground motion from simulation of actual earthquake rupture. Finally, the source of the earthquakes was the actual source for the conventional PSHA. While, we assumed random fractures for the physics-based approach. From all this, we consider the calculation of the conventional approach, based on actual data, to validate the physics-based approach used.

  2. Landslide Hazard Mapping in Rwanda Using Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piller, A.; Anderson, E.; Ballard, H.

    2015-12-01

    Landslides in the United States cause more than $1 billion in damages and 50 deaths per year (USGS 2014). Globally, figures are much more grave, yet monitoring, mapping and forecasting of these hazards are less than adequate. Seventy-five percent of the population of Rwanda earns a living from farming, mostly subsistence. Loss of farmland, housing, or life, to landslides is a very real hazard. Landslides in Rwanda have an impact at the economic, social, and environmental level. In a developing nation that faces challenges in tracking, cataloging, and predicting the numerous landslides that occur each year, satellite imagery and spatial analysis allow for remote study. We have focused on the development of a landslide inventory and a statistical methodology for assessing landslide hazards. Using logistic regression on approximately 30 test variables (i.e. slope, soil type, land cover, etc.) and a sample of over 200 landslides, we determine which variables are statistically most relevant to landslide occurrence in Rwanda. A preliminary predictive hazard map for Rwanda has been produced, using the variables selected from the logistic regression analysis.

  3. 44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... mapping coastal flood hazard areas. 65.11 Section 65.11 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL... Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.11 Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas. (a) General conditions. For purposes of the NFIP, FEMA will consider...

  4. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  5. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

    2009-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the

  6. Pattern recognition methodologies and deterministic evaluation of seismic hazard: A strategy to increase earthquake preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano F.; Gorshkov, Alexander I.; Aoudia, Abdelkrim

    2001-05-01

    Several algorithms, structured according to a general pattern-recognition scheme, have been developed for the space-time identification of strong events. Currently, two of such algorithms are applied to the Italian territory, one for the recognition of earthquake-prone areas and the other, namely CN algorithm, for earthquake prediction purposes. These procedures can be viewed as independent experts, hence they can be combined to better constrain the alerted seismogenic area. We examine here the possibility to integrate CN intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone areas and deterministic hazard maps, in order to associate CN Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) to a set of appropriate scenarios of ground motion. The advantage of this procedure mainly consists in the time information provided by predictions, useful to increase preparedness of safety measures and to indicate a priority for detailed seismic risk studies to be performed at a local scale. (author)

  7. Analysis of the seismic hazard to an underground waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wight, L.H.

    1979-01-01

    Conclusions are: The consequence associated with intense vibratory shaking of a well-designed repository is essentially negligible. The specification of an appropriate seismic vibratory design criteria could best be accomplished with a Bayesian seismic hazard assessment, using geologic slip rates as input. The consequence associated with fault displacement is very site specific and dependent on the host geologic media and its permeability changes in response to fault displacement. The probability of faulting through a repository in its million year design life is rather high, principally because of a high probability of primary or secondary faulting on undetected faults. The faulting probability can be minimized by deploying sophisticated site certification programs. High resolution microseismic surveillance seems to be most appropriate. The author's judgement is that the repository simulation program can neglect consequences associated with shaking of the repository, but that the probability of significant fault displacement through the repository during its design life should be conservatively taken as one

  8. Update of the tectonic model for the Pannonian basin: a contribution to the seismic hazard reassessment of the Paks NPP (Hungary)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Ferenc; Tóth, Tamás; Wórum, Géza; Koroknai, Balázs; Kádi, Zoltán; Kovács, Gábor; Balázs, Attila; Visnovitz, Ferenc

    2015-04-01

    The planned construction of two new units at the site of the Paks NPP requires a comprehensive site investigation including complete reassessment of the seismic hazard according to the Hungarian as well as international standards. Following the regulations of the Specific Safety Guide no. 9 (IAEA 2010), the approved Hungarian Geological Investigation Program (HGIP) includes integrated geological-geophysical studies at different scales. The regional study aims at to elaborate a new synthesis of all published data for the whole Pannonian basin. This task is nearly completed and the main outcomes have already been published (Horváth et al. 2015). The near regional study is in progress and addresses the construction of a new tectonic model for the circular area with 50 km radius around the NPP using a wealth of unpublished oil company seismic and borehole data. The site vicinity study has also been started with a core activity of 300 km² 3D seismic data acquisition, processing and interpretation assisted by a series of additional geophysical surveys, new drillings and geological mapping. This lecture will present a few important results of the near regional study, which sheds new light on the intricate tectonic evolution of the Mid-Hungarian Fault Zone (MHFZ), which is a strongly deformed belt between the Alcapa and Tisza-Dacia megatectonic units. The nuclear power plant is located at the margin of the Tisza unit near to the southern edge of the MHFZ. Reassessment of seismic hazard at the site of the NPP requires better understanding of the Miocene to Recent tectonic evolution of this region in the central part of the Pannonian basin. Early to Middle Miocene was a period of rifting with formation of 1 to 3 km deep half-grabens filled with terrestrial to marine deposits and large amount of rift-related volcanic material. Graben fill became strongly deformed as a consequence of juxtaposition of the two megatectonic units leading to strong compression and development of

  9. The ESI scale, an ethical approach to the evaluation of seismic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porfido, Sabina; Nappi, Rosa; De Lucia, Maddalena; Gaudiosi, Germana; Alessio, Giuliana; Guerrieri, Luca

    2015-04-01

    The dissemination of correct information about seismic hazard is an ethical duty of scientific community worldwide. A proper assessment of a earthquake severity and impact should not ignore the evaluation of its intensity, taking into account both the effects on humans, man-made structures, as well as on the natural evironment. We illustrate the new macroseismic scale that measures the intensity taking into account the effects of earthquakes on the environment: the ESI 2007 (Environmental Seismic Intensity) scale (Michetti et al., 2007), ratified by the INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research) during the XVII Congress in Cairns (Australia). The ESI scale integrates and completes the traditional macroseismic scales, of which it represents the evolution, allowing to assess the intensity parameter also where buildings are absent or damage-based diagnostic elements saturate. Each degree reflects the corresponding strength of an earthquake and the role of ground effects, evaluating the Intensity on the basis of the characteristics and size of primary (e.g. surface faulting and tectonic uplift/subsidence) and secondary effects (e.g. ground cracks, slope movements, liquefaction phenomena, hydrological changes, anomalous waves, tsunamis, trees shaking, dust clouds and jumping stones). This approach can be considered "ethical" because helps to define the real scenario of an earthquake, regardless of the country's socio-economic conditions and level of development. Here lies the value and the relevance of macroseismic scales even today, one hundred years after the death of Giuseppe Mercalli, who conceived the homonymous scale for the evaluation of earthquake intensity. For an appropriate mitigation strategy in seismic areas, it is fundamental to consider the role played by seismically induced effects on ground, such as active faults (size in length and displacement) and secondary effects (the total area affecting). With these perspectives two different cases

  10. A LiDAR based analysis of hydraulic hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazorzi, F.; De Luca, A.; Checchinato, A.; Segna, F.; Dalla Fontana, G.

    2012-04-01

    Mapping hydraulic hazard is a ticklish procedure as it involves technical and socio-economic aspects. On the one hand no dangerous areas should be excluded, on the other hand it is important not to exceed, beyond the necessary, with the surface assigned to some use limitations. The availability of a high resolution topographic survey allows nowadays to face this task with innovative procedures, both in the planning (mapping) and in the map validation phases. The latter is the object of the present work. It should be stressed that the described procedure is proposed purely as a preliminary analysis based on topography only, and therefore does not intend in any way to replace more sophisticated analysis methods requiring based on hydraulic modelling. The reference elevation model is a combination of the digital terrain model and the digital building model (DTM+DBM). The option of using the standard surface model (DSM) is not viable, as the DSM represents the vegetation canopy as a solid volume. This has the consequence of unrealistically considering the vegetation as a geometric obstacle to water flow. In some cases the topographic model construction requires the identification and digitization of the principal breaklines, such as river banks, ditches and similar natural or artificial structures. The geometrical and topological procedure for the validation of the hydraulic hazard maps is made of two steps. In the first step the whole area is subdivided into fluvial segments, with length chosen as a reasonable trade-off between the need to keep the hydrographical unit as complete as possible, and the need to separate sections of the river bed with significantly different morphology. Each of these segments is made of a single elongated polygon, whose shape can be quite complex, especially for meandering river sections, where the flow direction (i.e. the potential energy gradient associated to the talweg) is often inverted. In the second step the segments are analysed

  11. Simplified static method for determining seismic loads on equipment in moderate and high hazard facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.A.; Holmes, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    A simplified static analysis methodology is presented for qualifying equipment in moderate and high-hazard facility-use category structures, where the facility use is defined in Design and Evaluation Guidelines for Department of Energy Facilities Subjected to Natural Phenomena Hazards, UCRL-15910. Currently there are no equivalent simplified static methods for determining seismic loads on equipment in these facility use categories without completing dynamic analysis of the facility to obtain local floor accelerations or spectra. The requirements of UCRL-15910 specify the use of open-quotes dynamicclose quotes analysis methods, consistent with Seismic Design Guidelines for Essential Buildings, Chapter 6, open-quotes Nonstructural Elements,close quotes TM5-809-10-1, be used for determining seismic loads on mechanical equipment and components. Chapter 6 assumes that the dynamic analysis of the facility has generated either floor response spectra or model floor accelerations. These in turn are utilized with the dynamic modification factor and the actual demand and capacity ratios to determine equipment loading. This complex methodology may be necessary to determine more exacting loads for hard to qualify equipment but does not provide a simple conservative loading methodology for equipment with ample structural capacity

  12. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria for seismic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Hintersberger

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria, moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs ∕ Mmax, obs = 8∕5.2 concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF. In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF, in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20–25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical

  13. PSHAe (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard enhanced): the case of Istanbul.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupazzini, Marco; Allmann, Alexander; Infantino, Maria; Kaeser, Martin; Mazzieri, Ilario; Paolucci, Roberto; Smerzini, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) only relying on GMPEs tends to be insufficiently constrained at short distances and data only partially account for the rupture process, seismic wave propagation and three-dimensional (3D) complex configurations. Given a large and representative set of numerical results from 3D scenarios, analysing the resulting database from a statistical point of view and implementing the results as a generalized attenuation function (GAF) into the classical PSHA might be an appealing way to deal with this problem (Villani et al., 2014). Nonetheless, the limited amount of computational resources or time available tend to pose substantial constrains in a broad application of the previous method and, furthermore, the method is only partially suitable for taking into account the spatial correlation of ground motion as modelled by each forward physics-based simulation (PBS). Given that, we envision a streamlined and alternative implementation of the previous approach, aiming at selecting a limited number of scenarios wisely chosen and associating them a probability of occurrence. The experience gathered in the past year regarding 3D modelling of seismic wave propagation in complex alluvial basin (Pilz et al., 2011, Guidotti et al., 2011, Smerzini and Villani, 2012) allowed us to enhance the choice of simulated scenarios in order to explore the variability of ground motion, preserving the full spatial correlation necessary for risk modelling, on one hand and on the other the simulated losses for a given location and a given building stock. 3D numerical modelling of scenarios occurring the North Anatolian Fault in the proximity of Istanbul are carried out through the spectral element code SPEED (http://speed.mox.polimi.it). The results are introduced in a PSHA, exploiting the capabilities of the proposed methodology against a traditional approach based on GMPE. References Guidotti R, M Stupazzini, C Smerzini, R Paolucci, P Ramieri

  14. The new Central American seismic hazard zonation: Mutual consensus based on up to day seismotectonic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, Guillermo E.; Benito, Belén; Staller, Alejandra; Climent, Álvaro; Camacho, Eduardo; Rojas, Wilfredo; Marroquín, Griselda; Molina, Enrique; Talavera, J. Emilio; Martínez-Cuevas, Sandra; Lindholm, Conrad

    2017-11-01

    Central America is one of the most active seismic zones in the World, due to the interaction of five tectonic plates (North America, Caribbean, Coco, Nazca and South America), and its internal deformation, which generates almost one destructive earthquakes (5.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.1) every year. A new seismological zonation for Central America is proposed based on seismotectonic framework, a geological context (tectonic and geological maps), geophysical and geodetic evidence (gravimetric maps, magnetometric, GPS observations), and previous works. As a main source of data a depurated earthquake catalog was collected covering the period from 1522 to 2015. This catalog was homogenized to a moment magnitude scale (Mw). After a careful analysis of all the integrated geological and seismological information, the seismogenic zones were established into seismic areas defined by similar patterns of faulting, seismicity, and rupture mechanism. The tectonic environment has required considering seismic zones in two particular seismological regimes: a) crustal faulting (including local faults, major fracture zones of plate boundary limits, and thrust fault of deformed belts) and b) subduction, taking into account the change in the subduction angle along the trench, and the type and location of the rupture. The seismicity in the subduction zone is divided into interplate and intraplate inslab seismicity. The regional seismic zonation proposed for the whole of Central America, include local seismic zonations, avoiding discontinuities at the national boundaries, because of a consensus between the 7 countries, based on the cooperative work of specialists on Central American seismotectonics and related topics.

  15. Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musson, R. M. W. [British Geological Survey, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA (United Kingdom); Sellami, S. [Swiss Seismological Service, ETH-Hoenggerberg, Zuerich (Switzerland); Bruestle, W. [Regierungspraesidium Freiburg, Abt. 9: Landesamt fuer Geologie, Rohstoffe und Bergbau, Ref. 98: Landeserdbebendienst, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2009-05-15

    The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the 'big picture' of regional seismo-genesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intra-plate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered. (author)

  16. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Characterization and Design Parameters for the Sites of the Nuclear Power Plants of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.B.; Foxall, W.

    2000-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), under the auspices of the International Nuclear Safety Program (INSP) is supporting in-depth safety assessments (ISA) of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union for the purpose of evaluating the safety and upgrades necessary to the stock of nuclear power plants in Ukraine. For this purpose the Hazards Mitigation Center at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been asked to assess the seismic hazard and design parameters at the sites of the nuclear power plants in Ukraine. The probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) estimates were updated using the latest available data and knowledge from LLNL, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other relevant recent studies from several consulting companies. Special attention was given to account for the local seismicity, the deep focused earthquakes of the Vrancea zone, in Romania, the region around Crimea and for the system of potentially active faults associated with the Pripyat Dniepro Donnetts rift. Aleatory (random) uncertainty was estimated from the available data and the epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty was estimated by considering the existing models in the literature and the interpretations of a small group of experts elicited during a workshop conducted in Kiev, Ukraine, on February 2-4, 1999

  17. Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musson, R. M. W.; Sellami, S.; Bruestle, W.

    2009-01-01

    The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the 'big picture' of regional seismo-genesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intra-plate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered. (author)

  18. Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone in Jamaica: paleoseismology and seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, R.D.; Mann, P.; Prentice, Carol S.; Brown, L.; Benford, B.; Grandison-Wiggins, M.

    2013-01-01

    The countries of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic all straddle the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone ( EPGFZ), a major left-lateral, strike-slip fault system bounding the Caribbean and North American plates. Past large earthquakes that destroyed the capital cities of Kingston, Jamaica (1692, 1907), and Port-au-Prince, Haiti (1751, 1770), as well as the 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people, have heightened awareness of seismic hazards in the northern Caribbean. We present here new geomorphic and paleoseismic information bearing on the location and relative activity of the EPGFZ, which marks the plate boundary in Jamaica. Documentation of a river bank exposure and several trenches indicate that this fault is active and has the potential to cause major destructive earthquakes in Jamaica. The results suggest that the fault has not ruptured the surface in at least 500 yr and possibly as long as 28 ka. The long period of quiescence and subdued geomorphic expression of the EPGFZ indicates that it may only accommodate part of the ∼7–9 mm=yr plate deformation rate measured geodetically and that slip may be partitioned on other undocumented faults. Large uncertainties related to the neotectonic framework of Jamaica remain and more detailed fault characterization studies are necessary to accurately assess seismic hazards.

  19. Benefits of remote sensing technologies in the assessment of seismicity and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, H.

    2005-01-01

    Estimating the likelihood of seismic hazard and the degree of damage, including damage of secondary effects is essential for damage mitigation planning. The present study is an attempt to integrate various data sets as LANDSAT ETM - and satellite radar (ERS) - data and geological and geophysical data to obtain a better understanding of processes influencing the damage intensity of stronger earthquakes. Special attention is given to the mapping of structural features visible on satellite imageries from the area in order to investigate the tectonic setting and to detect surface traces of fracture and fault zones that might influence the contour and degree of seismic shock and earthquake induced secondary effects as soil liquefaction. Special attention is focussed on active, neotectonic features. Linear features visible on remote sensing - data from the test area, thus, were mapped and risk areas delineated using ArcView - Geographic Information System (GIS) - technology. As risk areas were mapped those regions with higher risk of seismic wave amplification due to water saturated surfaces or due to intersecting fault zones guiding seismic waves. The evaluations were compared, correlated and combined with available geologic and geophysics data. The results of this study allow an application for seismic microzonation purposes

  20. Airborne geophysical radon hazard mapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, P.

    1993-01-01

    Shales containing uranium pose a radon health hazard even when covered by several meters of overburden. Such an alum shale in southern Norway has been mapped with a joint helicopter borne electromagnetic (HEM) and radiometric survey. Results are compared with ground spectrometer, radon emanometer and radon gas measurements in dwellings, and a model to predict radon gas concentrations from the airborne data is developed. Since the shale is conductive, combining the HEM data with the radiometric channel allows the shale to be mapped with greater reliability than if the radiometric channel were used alone. Radiometrically more active areas which do not pose a radon gas hazard can thus be separated from the shales which do. The ground follow-up work consisted of spectrometer and radon emanometer measurements over a uranium anomaly coinciding with a conductor. The correlation between the airborne uranium channel, the ground uranium channel and emanometry is extremely good, indicating that airborne geophysics can, in this case, be used to predict areas having a high radon potential. Contingency tables comparing both radon exhalation and concentration in dwellings with the airborne uranium data show a strong relationship exists between exhalation and the airborne data and while a relationship between concentration and the airborne data is present, but weaker

  1. Dominant seismic sources for the cities in South Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunardi, Bambang; Sakya, Andi Eka; Masturyono, Murjaya, Jaya; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri, Putra, Ade Surya

    2017-07-01

    Subduction zone along west of Sumatra and Sumatran fault zone are active seismic sources. Seismotectonically, South Sumatra could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. This paper discussed contribution of each seismic source to earthquake hazards for cities of Palembang, Prabumulih, Banyuasin, OganIlir, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Oku, Musi Rawas and Empat Lawang. These hazards are presented in form of seismic hazard curves. The study was conducted by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Seismic sources used in analysis included megathrust zone M2 of Sumatra and South Sumatra, background seismic sources and shallow crustal seismic sources consist of Ketaun, Musi, Manna and Kumering faults. The results of the study showed that for cities relatively far from the seismic sources, subduction / megathrust seismic source with a depth ≤ 50 km greatly contributed to the seismic hazard and the other areas showed deep background seismic sources with a depth of more than 100 km dominate to seismic hazard respectively.

  2. Scenarios for local seismic effects of Tulcea (Romania) crustal earthquakes, preliminary approach for the seismic microzoning of Tulcea city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florin Bǎlan, Å.žTefan; Apostol, Bogdan; Chitea, F.; Anghelache, Mirela Adriana; Cioflan, Carmen O.; Serban, A.

    2010-05-01

    nonlinear variations of shear modulus and damping function with state of strain during the earthquakes are expected in superficial soil deposits. Also, the epicenter distributions, the isobats map and 3D image of focal distribution surface will be presented together with the focal mechanisms of the most significant earthquakes which had affected the zone. All these give us a very complete image of the crustal seismic hazard of the Tulcea zone. This study proposes itself to take in consideration only the local effects of the crustal seismic hazard from Tulcea zone, like a preliminary step for the seismic microzoning of Tulcea city. The latter is a broader research which implies the interdisciplinary work between specialists from different fields of research. Finally, by comparing the seismic microzoning map with the vulnerability distribution mapping for each building type and damage distribution maps, the general aspect of the real earthquake effects over the city is figured out. Acknowledgements: The research was performed with financial support from the CNMP within 31036/ 2007 scientific project.

  3. Seismic Hazard of the Uttarakhand Himalaya, India, from Deterministic Modeling of Possible Rupture Planes in the Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand Joshi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents use of semiempirical method for seismic hazard zonation. The seismotectonically important region of Uttarakhand Himalaya has been considered in this work. Ruptures along the lineaments in the area identified from tectonic map are modeled deterministically using semi empirical approach given by Midorikawa (1993. This approach makes use of attenuation relation of peak ground acceleration for simulating strong ground motion at any site. Strong motion data collected over a span of three years in this region have been used to develop attenuation relation of peak ground acceleration of limited magnitude and distance applicability. The developed attenuation relation is used in the semi empirical method to predict peak ground acceleration from the modeled rupture planes in the area. A set of values of peak ground acceleration from possible ruptures in the area at the point of investigation is further used to compute probability of exceedance of peak ground acceleration of values 100 and 200 gals. The prepared map shows that regions like Tehri, Chamoli, Almora, Srinagar, Devprayag, Bageshwar, and Pauri fall in a zone of 10% probability of exceedence of peak ground acceleration of value 200 gals.

  4. Mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor using an evidential reasoning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Youhua; Liu, Jinpeng; Tian, Feng; Wang, Dekai

    2017-02-01

    The Hexi Corridor is an important part of the Silk Road Economic Belt and a crucial channel for westward development in China. Many important national engineering projects pass through the corridor, such as highways, railways, and the West-to-East Gas Pipeline. The frequent torrent disasters greatly impact the security of infrastructure and human safety. In this study, an evidential reasoning approach based on Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed for mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor. A torrent hazard map for the Hexi Corridor was generated by integrating the driving factors of mountain torrent disasters including precipitation, terrain, flow concentration processes, and the vegetation fraction. The results show that the capability of the proposed method is satisfactory. The torrent hazard map shows that there is high potential torrent hazard in the central and southeastern Hexi Corridor. The results are useful for engineering planning support and resource protection in the Hexi Corridor. Further efforts are discussed for improving torrent hazard mapping and prediction.

  5. Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Ayman A.

    2011-03-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

  6. Fractal properties and simulation of micro-seismicity for seismic hazard analysis: a comparison of North Anatolian and San Andreas Fault Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naside Ozer

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed statistical properties of earthquakes in western Anatolia as well as the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ in terms of spatio-temporal variations of fractal dimensions, p- and b-values. During statistically homogeneous periods characterized by closer fractal dimension values, we propose that occurrence of relatively larger shocks (M >= 5.0 is unlikely. Decreases in seismic activity in such intervals result in spatial b-value distributions that are primarily stable. Fractal dimensions decrease with time in proportion to increasing seismicity. Conversely, no spatiotemporal patterns were observed for p-value changes. In order to evaluate failure probabilities and simulate earthquake occurrence in the western NAFZ, we applied a modified version of the renormalization group method. Assuming an increase in small earthquakes is indicative of larger shocks, we apply the mentioned model to micro-seismic (M<= 3.0 activity, and test our results using San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ data. We propose that fractal dimension is a direct indicator of material heterogeneity and strength. Results from a model suggest simulated and observed earthquake occurrences are coherent, and may be used for seismic hazard estimation on creeping strike-slip fault zones.

  7. Optimizing CyberShake Seismic Hazard Workflows for Large HPC Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Juve, G.; Vahi, K.; Deelman, E.; Jordan, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    The CyberShake computational platform is a well-integrated collection of scientific software and middleware that calculates 3D simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard curves and hazard maps for the Los Angeles region. Currently each CyberShake model comprises about 235 million synthetic seismograms from about 415,000 rupture variations computed at 286 sites. CyberShake integrates large-scale parallel and high-throughput serial seismological research codes into a processing framework in which early stages produce files used as inputs by later stages. Scientific workflow tools are used to manage the jobs, data, and metadata. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) developed the CyberShake platform using USC High Performance Computing and Communications systems and open-science NSF resources.CyberShake calculations were migrated to the NSF Track 1 system NCSA Blue Waters when it became operational in 2013, via an interdisciplinary team approach including domain scientists, computer scientists, and middleware developers. Due to the excellent performance of Blue Waters and CyberShake software optimizations, we reduced the makespan (a measure of wallclock time-to-solution) of a CyberShake study from 1467 to 342 hours. We will describe the technical enhancements behind this improvement, including judicious introduction of new GPU software, improved scientific software components, increased workflow-based automation, and Blue Waters-specific workflow optimizations.Our CyberShake performance improvements highlight the benefits of scientific workflow tools. The CyberShake workflow software stack includes the Pegasus Workflow Management System (Pegasus-WMS, which includes Condor DAGMan), HTCondor, and Globus GRAM, with Pegasus-mpi-cluster managing the high-throughput tasks on the HPC resources. The workflow tools handle data management, automatically transferring about 13 TB back to SCEC storage.We will present performance metrics from the most recent Cyber

  8. Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

    2017-12-01

    In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

  9. Aftershock Duration of the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake: Implication for the Seismic Hazard Model with a Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Q.; Shi, B.

    2011-12-01

    The disaster of the Ms 7.8 earthquake occurred in Tangshan, China, on July 28th 1976 caused at least 240,000 deaths. The mainshock was followed by two largest aftershocks, the Ms 7.1 occurred after 15 hr later of the mainshock, and the Ms 6.9 occurred on 15 November. The aftershock sequence is lasting to date, making the regional seismic activity rate around the Tangshan main fault much higher than that of before the main event. If these aftershocks are involved in the local main event catalog for the PSHA calculation purpose, the resultant seismic hazard calculation will be overestimated in this region and underestimated in other place. However, it is always difficult to accurately determine the time duration of aftershock sequences and identifies the aftershocks from main event catalog for seismologist. In this study, by using theoretical inference and empirical relation given by Dieterich, we intended to derive the plausible time length of aftershock sequences of the Ms 7.8 Tangshan earthquake. The aftershock duration from log-log regression approach gives us about 120 years according to the empirical Omori's relation. Based on Dietrich approach, it has been claimed that the aftershock duration is a function of remote shear stressing rate, normal stress acting on the fault plane, and fault frictional constitutive parameters. In general, shear stressing rate could be estimated in three ways: 1. Shear stressing rate could be written as a function of static stress drop and a mean earthquake recurrence time. In this case, the time length of aftershock sequences is about 70-100 years. However, since the recurrence time inherits a great deal of uncertainty. 2. Ziv and Rubin derived a general function between shear stressing rate, fault slip speed and fault width with a consideration that aftershock duration does not scale with mainshock magnitude. Therefore, from Ziv's consideration, the aftershock duration is about 80 years. 3. Shear stressing rate is also can be

  10. Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

  11. Seismic microzonation of Bangalore, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Evaluation of seismic hazards and microzonation of cities enable us to characterize the potential seismic areas which have similar exposures to haz- ards of earthquakes, and these results can be used for designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of microzonation ...

  12. Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

    1990-07-01

    Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

  13. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

  14. New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicholas; Garrett, B.; Hayes, J.

    2012-01-01

    Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defined level of seismic safety into their building designs.

  15. Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robiana, R.; Cipta, A.

    2015-01-01

    Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 – 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds

  16. Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robiana, R., E-mail: robiana-geo104@yahoo.com; Cipta, A. [Geological Agency, Diponegoro Road No.57, Bandung, 40122 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 – 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds.

  17. New High-Resolution Multibeam Mapping and Seismic Reflection Imaging of Mudflows on the Mississippi River Delta Front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaytor, J. D.; Baldwin, W. E.; Danforth, W. W.; Bentley, S. J.; Miner, M. D.; Damour, M.

    2017-12-01

    Mudflows (channelized and unconfined debris flows) on the Mississippi River Delta Front (MRDF) are a recognized hazard to oil and gas infrastructure in the shallow Gulf of Mexico. Preconditioning of the seafloor for failure results from high sedimentation rates coupled with slope over-steepening, under-consolidation, and abundant biogenic gas production. Cyclical loading of the seafloor by waves from passing major storms appears to be a primary trigger, but the role of smaller (more frequent) storms and background oceanographic processes are largely unconstrained. A pilot high-resolution seafloor mapping and seismic imaging study was carried out across portions of the MRDF aboard the R/V Point Sur from May 19-26, 2017, as part of a multi-agency/university effort to characterize mudflow hazards in the area. The primary objective of the cruise was to assess the suitability of seafloor mapping and shallow sub-surface imaging tools in the challenging environmental conditions found across delta fronts (e.g., variably-distributed water column stratification and wide-spread biogenic gas in the shallow sub-surface). More than 600 km of multibeam bathymetry/backscatter/water column data, 425 km of towed chirp data, and > 500 km of multi-channel seismic data (boomer/mini-sparker sources, 32-channel streamer) were collected. Varied mudflow (gully, lobe), pro-delta morphologies, and structural features, some of which have been surveyed more than once, were imaged in selected survey areas from Pass a Loutre to Southwest Pass. The present location of the SS Virginia, which has been moving with one of the mudflow lobes since it was sunk in 1942, was determined and found to be 60 m SW of its 2006 position, suggesting movement not linked to hurricane-induced wave triggering of mudflows. Preliminary versions these data were used to identify sediment sampling sites visited on a cruise in early June 2017 led by scientists from LSU and other university/agency partners.

  18. Application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to ground subsidence hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Inhye; Choi, Jaewon; Jin Lee, Moung; Lee, Saro

    2012-11-01

    We constructed hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok City, Korea, using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, and ground subsidence maps. An attribute database was also constructed from field investigations and reports on existing ground subsidence areas at the study site. Five major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted: (1) depth of drift; (2) distance from drift; (3) slope gradient; (4) geology; and (5) land use. The adaptive ANFIS model with different types of membership functions (MFs) was then applied for ground subsidence hazard mapping in the study area. Two ground subsidence hazard maps were prepared using the different MFs. Finally, the resulting ground subsidence hazard maps were validated using the ground subsidence test data which were not used for training the ANFIS. The validation results showed 95.12% accuracy using the generalized bell-shaped MF model and 94.94% accuracy using the Sigmoidal2 MF model. These accuracy results show that an ANFIS can be an effective tool in ground subsidence hazard mapping. Analysis of ground subsidence with the ANFIS model suggests that quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near AUCMs is possible.

  19. Develop and implement preconditioning techniques to control face ejection rockbursts for safer mining in seismically hazardous areas

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Toper, AZ

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available This research report discusses the development of preconditioning techniques to control face bursts, for safer mining in seismically hazardous areas. Preconditioning involves regularly setting off carefully tailored blasts in the fractured rock...

  20. THE USAGE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN TERRESTRIAL MEASUREMENTS FOR HAZARD MAPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VELE Dan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of natural phenomena (earthquakes, floods, landslides etc. bring economical and social prejudices year by year, watching on them and taking decisions becomes mandatory for reducing the material and human lives loss. Making hazard maps represents a tool used on wide global scale but also particularly in our country. This paper work has the purpose to reveal the interests of certain authors related to the usage of the new technologies of terrestrial measurements (GPS technologies, photogrammetry, cartography and of remote sensing in order to make these hazard maps.

  1. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    access, manage, update and distribute in a short time to all sectors and users; and finally, the need of a comprehensive understanding of landslide processes. Many efforts have been made in the last 10 years to gain a more comprehensive and predictive understanding of landslide processes in Nicaragua. Since 1998, landslide inventory GIS based maps have been produced in different areas of the country, as part of international and multidisciplinary development projects. Landslide susceptibility and hazard maps are available now at INETEŔs Website for all municipalities of the country. The insights on landslide hazard have been transmitted to governmental agencies, local authorities, NGÓs, international agencies to be used in measures for risk reduction. A massive application example was the integration of hazard assessment studies in a large house building program in Nicaragua. Hazards of landslides, and other dangerous phenomena, were evaluated in more than 90 house building projects, each with 50 - 200 houses to be build, sited mainly in rural areas of the country. For more than 7000 families, this program could finally assure that their new houses were build in safe areas. Attempts have been made to develop a strategy for early warning of landslides in Nicaragua. First approaches relied on precipitation gauges with satellite based telemetry which were installed in some Nicaraguan volcanoes where lahars occur frequently. The occurrence of lahars in certain gullies could be detected by seismic stations. A software system gave acoustic alarm at INETEŔs Monitoring Centre when certain trigger levels of the accumulated precipitation were reached. The monitoring and early warning for all areas under risk would have required many rain gauges. A new concept is tested which uses near real time precipitation estimates from NOAA meteorological satellite data. A software system sends out alarm messages if strong or long lasting rains are observed over certain landslide "hot spots

  2. Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan