WorldWideScience

Sample records for seismic fault tree

  1. Seismic Margin Assessment for Research Reactor using Fragility based Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Oh, Jinho; Lee, Jong-Min; Ryu, Jeong-Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The research reactor has been often subjected to external hazards during the design lifetime. Especially, a seismic event can be one of significant threats to the failure of structure system of the research reactor. This failure is possibly extended to the direct core damage of the reactor. For this purpose, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage under an earthquake accident is developed. The failure probabilities of basic events are evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions. Finally, the plant-level seismic margin is investigated by the fault tree analysis combining with fragility data and the critical path is identified. The plant-level probabilistic seismic margin assessment using the fragility based fault tree analysis was performed for quantifying the safety of research reactor to a seismic hazard. For this, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage of the reactor under a seismic accident was developed. The failure probabilities of basic events were evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions.

  2. San Onofre/Zion auxiliary feedwater system seismic fault tree modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najafi, B.; Eide, S.

    1982-02-01

    As part of the study for the seismic evaluation of the San Onofre Unit 1 Auxiliary Feedwater System (AFWS), a fault tree model was developed capable of handling the effect of structural failure of the plant (in the event of an earthquake) on the availability of the AFWS. A compatible fault tree model was developed for the Zion Unit 1 AFWS in order to compare the results of the two systems. It was concluded that if a single failure of the San Onofre Unit 1 AFWS is to be prevented, some weight existing, locally operated locked open manual valves have to be used for isolation of a rupture in specific parts of the AFWS pipings

  3. Fault tree handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.F.; Roberts, N.H.; Vesely, W.E.; Goldberg, F.F.

    1981-01-01

    This handbook describes a methodology for reliability analysis of complex systems such as those which comprise the engineered safety features of nuclear power generating stations. After an initial overview of the available system analysis approaches, the handbook focuses on a description of the deductive method known as fault tree analysis. The following aspects of fault tree analysis are covered: basic concepts for fault tree analysis; basic elements of a fault tree; fault tree construction; probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra for the fault tree analyst; qualitative and quantitative fault tree evaluation techniques; and computer codes for fault tree evaluation. Also discussed are several example problems illustrating the basic concepts of fault tree construction and evaluation

  4. Categorization of PWR accident sequences and guidelines for fault trees: seismic initiators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1984-09-01

    This study developed a set of dominant accident sequences that could be applied generically to domestic commercial PWRs as a standardized basis for a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This was accomplished by ranking the Zion 1 accident sequences. The pertinent PWR safety systems were compared on a plant-by-plant basis to determine the applicability of the dominant accident sequences of Zion 1 to other PWR plants. The functional event trees were developed to describe the system functions that must work or not work in order for a certain accident sequence to happen, one for pipe breaks and one for transients

  5. Fault tree graphics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bass, L.; Wynholds, H.W.; Porterfield, W.R.

    1975-01-01

    Described is an operational system that enables the user, through an intelligent graphics terminal, to construct, modify, analyze, and store fault trees. With this system, complex engineering designs can be analyzed. This paper discusses the system and its capabilities. Included is a brief discussion of fault tree analysis, which represents an aspect of reliability and safety modeling

  6. Fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-09-01

    Suggestion are made concerning the method of the fault tree analysis, the use of certain symbols in the examination of system failures. This purpose of the fault free analysis is to find logical connections of component or subsystem failures leading to undesirable occurrances. The results of these examinations are part of the system assessment concerning operation and safety. The objectives of the analysis are: systematical identification of all possible failure combinations (causes) leading to a specific undesirable occurrance, finding of reliability parameters such as frequency of failure combinations, frequency of the undesirable occurrance or non-availability of the system when required. The fault tree analysis provides a near and reconstructable documentation of the examination. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Introduction to fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, R.E.; Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    An elementary, engineering oriented introduction to fault tree analysis is presented. The basic concepts, techniques and applications of fault tree analysis, FTA, are described. The two major steps of FTA are identified as (1) the construction of the fault tree and (2) its evaluation. The evaluation of the fault tree can be qualitative or quantitative depending upon the scope, extensiveness and use of the analysis. The advantages, limitations and usefulness of FTA are discussed

  8. Summary: beyond fault trees to fault graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.; Prassinos, P.; Smith, C.F.

    1984-09-01

    Fault Graphs are the natural evolutionary step over a traditional fault-tree model. A Fault Graph is a failure-oriented directed graph with logic connectives that allows cycles. We intentionally construct the Fault Graph to trace the piping and instrumentation drawing (P and ID) of the system, but with logical AND and OR conditions added. Then we evaluate the Fault Graph with computer codes based on graph-theoretic methods. Fault Graph computer codes are based on graph concepts, such as path set (a set of nodes traveled on a path from one node to another) and reachability (the complete set of all possible paths between any two nodes). These codes are used to find the cut-sets (any minimal set of component failures that will fail the system) and to evaluate the system reliability

  9. Integrated fault tree development environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.

    1986-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are utilized in the nuclear industry to perform safety analyses of complex defense-in-depth systems. A major effort in PRA development is fault tree construction. The Integrated Fault Tree Environment (IFTREE) is an interactive, graphics-based tool for fault tree design. IFTREE provides integrated building, editing, and analysis features on a personal workstation. The design philosophy of IFTREE is presented, and the interface is described. IFTREE utilizes a unique rule-based solution algorithm founded in artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The impact of the AI approach on the program design is stressed. IFTREE has been developed to handle the design and maintenance of full-size living PRAs and is currently in use

  10. Computer aided construction of fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Z.

    1982-01-01

    Computer code CAT for the automatic construction of the fault tree is briefly described. Code CAT makes possible simple modelling of components using decision tables, it accelerates the fault tree construction process, constructs fault trees of different complexity, and is capable of harmonized co-operation with programs PREPandKITT 1,2 for fault tree analysis. The efficiency of program CAT and thus the accuracy and completeness of fault trees constructed significantly depends on the compilation and sophistication of decision tables. Currently, program CAT is used in co-operation with programs PREPandKITT 1,2 in reliability analyses of nuclear power plant systems. (B.S.)

  11. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nai Fovino, Igor; Masera, Marcelo; De Cian, Alessio

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

  12. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nai Fovino, Igor [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy)], E-mail: igor.nai@jrc.it; Masera, Marcelo [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy); De Cian, Alessio [Department of Electrical Engineering, University di Genova, Genoa (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

  13. Two Trees: Migrating Fault Trees to Decision Trees for Real Time Fault Detection on International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charles; Alena, Richard L.; Robinson, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.

  14. Computer aided fault tree synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.

    1983-01-01

    Nuclear as well as non-nuclear organisations are showing during the past few years a growing interest in the field of reliability analysis. This urges for the development of powerful, state of the art methods and computer codes for performing such analysis on complex systems. In this report an interactive, computer aided approach is discussed, based on the well known fault tree technique. The time consuming and difficut task of manually constructing a system model (one or more fault trees) is replaced by an efficient interactive procedure in which the flexibility and the learning process inherent to the manual approach are combined with the accuracy in the modelling and the speed of the fully automatical approach. The method presented is based upon the use of a library containing component models. The possibility of setting up a standard library of models of general use and the link with a data collection system are discussed. The method has been implemented in the CAFTS-SALP software package which is described shortly in the report

  15. Modular representation and analysis of fault trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olmos, J; Wolf, L [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

    1978-08-01

    An analytical method to describe fault tree diagrams in terms of their modular compositions is developed. Fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all its basic component inputs through a set of equations defining each of the modulus for the fault tree. It is shown that such a modular description is an extremely valuable tool for making a quantitative analysis of fault trees. The modularization methodology has been implemented into the PL-MOD computer code, written in PL/1 language, which is capable of modularizing fault trees containing replicated components and replicated modular gates. PL-MOD in addition can handle mutually exclusive inputs and explicit higher order symmetric (k-out-of-n) gates. The step-by-step modularization of fault trees performed by PL-MOD is demonstrated and it is shown how this procedure is only made possible through an extensive use of the list processing tools available in PL/1. A number of nuclear reactor safety system fault trees were analyzed. PL-MOD performed the modularization and evaluation of the modular occurrence probabilities and Vesely-Fussell importance measures for these systems very efficiently. In particular its execution time for the modularization of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using MOCUS, a code considered to be fast by present standards.

  16. Identifying Conventionally Sub-Seismic Faults in Polygonal Fault Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, C.; Dix, J.

    2017-12-01

    Polygonal Fault Systems (PFS) are prevalent in hydrocarbon basins globally and represent potential fluid pathways. However the characterization of these pathways is subject to the limitations of conventional 3D seismic imaging; only capable of resolving features on a decametre scale horizontally and metres scale vertically. While outcrop and core examples can identify smaller features, they are limited by the extent of the exposures. The disparity between these scales can allow for smaller faults to be lost in a resolution gap which could mean potential pathways are left unseen. Here the focus is upon PFS from within the London Clay, a common bedrock that is tunnelled into and bears construction foundations for much of London. It is a continuation of the Ieper Clay where PFS were first identified and is found to approach the seafloor within the Outer Thames Estuary. This allows for the direct analysis of PFS surface expressions, via the use of high resolution 1m bathymetric imaging in combination with high resolution seismic imaging. Through use of these datasets surface expressions of over 1500 faults within the London Clay have been identified, with the smallest fault measuring 12m and the largest at 612m in length. The displacements over these faults established from both bathymetric and seismic imaging ranges from 30cm to a couple of metres, scales that would typically be sub-seismic for conventional basin seismic imaging. The orientations and dimensions of the faults within this network have been directly compared to 3D seismic data of the Ieper Clay from the offshore Dutch sector where it exists approximately 1km below the seafloor. These have typical PFS attributes with lengths of hundreds of metres to kilometres and throws of tens of metres, a magnitude larger than those identified in the Outer Thames Estuary. The similar orientations and polygonal patterns within both locations indicates that the smaller faults exist within typical PFS structure but are

  17. Naive Fault Tree : formulation of the approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabalinejad, M

    2017-01-01

    Naive Fault Tree (NFT) accepts a single value or a range of values for each basic event and returns values for the top event. This accommodates the need of commonly used Fault Trees (FT) for precise data making them prone to data concerns and limiting their area of application. This paper extends

  18. Fault tree analysis for vital area identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varnado, G.B.; Ortiz, N.R.

    1978-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of fault tree analysis to identify those areas of nuclear fuel cycle facilities which must be protected to prevent acts of sabotage that could lead to sifnificant release of radioactive material. By proper manipulation of the fault trees for a plant, an analyst can identify vital areas in a manner consistent with regulatory definitions. This paper discusses the general procedures used in the analysis of any nuclear facility. In addition, a structured, generic approach to the development of the fault trees for nuclear power reactors is presented along with selected results of the application of the generic approach to several plants

  19. Users' manual for the FTDRAW (Fault Tree Draw) code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Tetsukuni; Hikawa, Michihiro; Tanabe, Syuichi; Nakamura, Norihiro

    1985-02-01

    This report provides the information needed to use the FTDRAW (Fault Tree Draw) code, which is designed for drawing a fault tree. The FTDRAW code has several optional functions, such as the overview of a fault tree output, fault tree output in English description, fault tree output in Japanese description and summary tree output. Inputs for the FTDRAW code are component failure rate information and gate information which are filed out by a execution of the FTA-J (Fault Tree Analysis-JAERI) code system and option control data. Using the FTDRAW code, we can get drawings of fault trees which is easy to see, efficiently. (author)

  20. Breaking the fault tree circular logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lankin, M.

    2000-01-01

    Event tree - fault tree approach to model failures of nuclear plants as well as of other complex facilities is noticeably dominant now. This approach implies modeling an object in form of unidirectional logical graph - tree, i.e. graph without circular logic. However, genuine nuclear plants intrinsically demonstrate quite a few logical loops (circular logic), especially where electrical systems are involved. This paper shows the incorrectness of existing practice of circular logic breaking by elimination of part of logical dependencies and puts forward a formal algorithm, which enables the analyst to correctly model the failure of complex object, which involves logical dependencies between system and components, in form of fault tree. (author)

  1. Posbist fault tree analysis of coherent systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, H.-Z.; Tong Xin; Zuo, Ming J.

    2004-01-01

    When the failure probability of a system is extremely small or necessary statistical data from the system is scarce, it is very difficult or impossible to evaluate its reliability and safety with conventional fault tree analysis (FTA) techniques. New techniques are needed to predict and diagnose such a system's failures and evaluate its reliability and safety. In this paper, we first provide a concise overview of FTA. Then, based on the posbist reliability theory, event failure behavior is characterized in the context of possibility measures and the structure function of the posbist fault tree of a coherent system is defined. In addition, we define the AND operator and the OR operator based on the minimal cut of a posbist fault tree. Finally, a model of posbist fault tree analysis (posbist FTA) of coherent systems is presented. The use of the model for quantitative analysis is demonstrated with a real-life safety system

  2. Integrated seismic interpretation of the Carlsberg Fault zone, Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Thybo, Hans; Jørgensen, Mette Iwanouw

    2005-01-01

    the fault zone. The fault zone is a shadow zone to shots detonated outside the fault zone. Finite-difference wavefield modelling supports the interpretations of the fan recordings. Our fan recording approach facilitates cost-efficient mapping of fault zones in densely urbanized areas where seismic normal......We locate the concealed Carlsberg Fault zone along a 12-km-long trace in the Copenhagen city centre by seismic refraction, reflection and fan profiling. The Carlsberg Fault is located in a NNW-SSE striking fault system in the border zone between the Danish Basin and the Baltic Shield. Recent...... earthquakes indicate that this area is tectonically active. A seismic refraction study across the Carlsberg Fault shows that the fault zone is a low-velocity zone and marks a change in seismic velocity structure. A normal incidence reflection seismic section shows a coincident flower-like structure. We have...

  3. Synthetic seismicity for the San Andreas fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Ward

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available Because historical catalogs generally span only a few repetition intervals of major earthquakes, they do not provide much constraint on how regularly earthquakes recur. In order to obtain better recurrence statistics and long-term probability estimates for events M ? 6 on the San Andreas fault, we apply a seismicity model to this fault. The model is based on the concept of fault segmentation and the physics of static dislocations which allow for stress transfer between segments. Constraints are provided by geological and seismological observations of segment lengths, characteristic magnitudes and long-term slip rates. Segment parameters slightly modified from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities allow us to reproduce observed seismicity over four orders of magnitude. The model yields quite irregular earthquake recurrence patterns. Only the largest events (M ? 7.5 are quasi-periodic; small events cluster. Both the average recurrence time and the aperiodicity are also a function of position along the fault. The model results are consistent with paleoseismic data for the San Andreas fault as well as a global set of historical and paleoseismic recurrence data. Thus irregular earthquake recurrence resulting from segment interaction is consistent with a large range of observations.

  4. Cafts: computer aided fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.

    1985-01-01

    The fault tree technique has become a standard tool for the analysis of safety and reliability of complex system. In spite of the costs, which may be high for a complete and detailed analysis of a complex plant, the fault tree technique is popular and its benefits are fully recognized. Due to this applications of these codes have mostly been restricted to simple academic examples and rarely concern complex, real world systems. In this paper an interactive approach to fault tree construction is presented. The aim is not to replace the analyst, but to offer him an intelligent tool which can assist him in modeling complex systems. Using the CAFTS-method, the analyst interactively constructs a fault tree in two phases: (1) In a first phase he generates an overall failure logic structure of the system; the macrofault tree. In this phase, CAFTS features an expert system approach to assist the analyst. It makes use of a knowledge base containing generic rules on the behavior of subsystems and components; (2) In a second phase the macrofault tree is further refined and transformed in a fully detailed and quantified fault tree. In this phase a library of plant-specific component failure models is used

  5. Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Bolton, David C.; Ren, Christopher X.; Riviere, Jacques; Marone, Chris; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.

    2018-02-01

    Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

  6. Fault tree analysis of a research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, J.A.; O'Dacre, D.F.; Chenier, R.J.; Arbique, G.M.

    1986-08-01

    Fault Tree Analysis Techniques have been used to assess the safety system of the ZED-2 Research Reactor at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories. This turned out to be a strong test of the techniques involved. The resulting fault tree was large and because of inter-links in the system structure the tree was not modularized. In addition, comprehensive documentation was required. After a brief overview of the reactor and the analysis, this paper concentrates on the computer tools that made the job work. Two types of tools were needed; text editing and forms management capability for large volumes of component and system data, and the fault tree codes themselves. The solutions (and failures) are discussed along with the tools we are already developing for the next analysis

  7. Reset Tree-Based Optical Fault Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howon Kim

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new reset tree-based scheme to protect cryptographic hardware against optical fault injection attacks. As one of the most powerful invasive attacks on cryptographic hardware, optical fault attacks cause semiconductors to misbehave by injecting high-energy light into a decapped integrated circuit. The contaminated result from the affected chip is then used to reveal secret information, such as a key, from the cryptographic hardware. Since the advent of such attacks, various countermeasures have been proposed. Although most of these countermeasures are strong, there is still the possibility of attack. In this paper, we present a novel optical fault detection scheme that utilizes the buffers on a circuit’s reset signal tree as a fault detection sensor. To evaluate our proposal, we model radiation-induced currents into circuit components and perform a SPICE simulation. The proposed scheme is expected to be used as a supplemental security tool.

  8. 3D Modelling of Seismically Active Parts of Underground Faults via Seismic Data Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Konstantaras, Anthony

    2015-04-01

    During the last few years rapid steps have been taken towards drilling for oil in the western Mediterranean sea. Since most of the countries in the region benefit mainly from tourism and considering that the Mediterranean is a closed sea only replenishing its water once every ninety years careful measures are being taken to ensure safe drilling. In that concept this research work attempts to derive a three dimensional model of the seismically active parts of the underlying underground faults in areas of petroleum interest. For that purpose seismic spatio-temporal clustering has been applied to seismic data to identify potential distinct seismic regions in the area of interest. Results have been coalesced with two dimensional maps of underground faults from past surveys and seismic epicentres, having followed careful reallocation processing, have been used to provide information regarding the vertical extent of multiple underground faults in the region of interest. The end product is a three dimensional map of the possible underground location and extent of the seismically active parts of underground faults. Indexing terms: underground faults modelling, seismic data mining, 3D visualisation, active seismic source mapping, seismic hazard evaluation, dangerous phenomena modelling Acknowledgment This research work is supported by the ESPA Operational Programme, Education and Life Long Learning, Students Practical Placement Initiative. References [1] Alves, T.M., Kokinou, E. and Zodiatis, G.: 'A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins', Marine Pollution Bulletin, In Press, 2014 [2] Ciappa, A., Costabile, S.: 'Oil spill hazard assessment using a reverse trajectory method for the Egadi marine protected area (Central Mediterranean Sea)', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 84 (1-2), pp. 44-55, 2014 [3] Ganas, A., Karastathis, V., Moshou, A., Valkaniotis, S., Mouzakiotis

  9. Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P

    2018-01-26

    Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Commercial application of fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetti, P.A.; Bruce, R.A.

    1970-01-01

    The potential for general application of Fault Tree Analysis to commercial products appears attractive based not only on the successful extension from the aerospace safety technology to the nuclear reactor reliability and availability technology, but also because combinatorial hazards are common to commercial operations and therefore lend themselves readily to evaluation by Fault Tree Analysis. It appears reasonable to conclude that the technique has application within the commercial industrial community where the occurrence of a specified consequence or final event would be of sufficient concern to management to justify such a rigorous analysis as an aid to decision making. (U.S.)

  11. Seismic fault analysis of Chicoutimi region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woussen, G.; Ngandee, S.

    1996-01-01

    On November 25, 1988, an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter Scale occurred at a depth of 29 km in Precambrian bedrock in the Saguenay Region (Quebec). Given that the seismic event was located near a major zone of normal faults, it is important to determine if the earthquake could be associated with this large structure or with faults associated with this structure. This is discussed through a compilation and interpretation of structural discontinuities on key outcrops in the vicinity of the epicenter. The report is broken in four parts. The first part gives a brief overview of the geology in order to provide a geologic context for the structural measurements. The second comprises an analysis of fractures in each of the three lithotectonic units defined in the first part. The third part discusses the data and the fourth provides a conclusion. 30 refs., 53 figs

  12. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.

  13. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard

  14. Computer-aided Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willie, R.R.

    1978-08-01

    A computer-oriented methodology for deriving minimal cut and path set families associated with arbitrary fault trees is discussed first. Then the use of the Fault Tree Analysis Program (FTAP), an extensive FORTRAN computer package that implements the methodology is described. An input fault tree to FTAP may specify the system state as any logical function of subsystem or component state variables or complements of these variables. When fault tree logical relations involve complements of state variables, the analyst may instruct FTAP to produce a family of prime implicants, a generalization of the minimal cut set concept. FTAP can also identify certain subsystems associated with the tree as system modules and provide a collection of minimal cut set families that essentially expresses the state of the system as a function of these module state variables. Another FTAP feature allows a subfamily to be obtained when the family of minimal cut sets or prime implicants is too large to be found in its entirety; this subfamily consists only of sets that are interesting to the analyst in a special sense

  15. Fault trees for diagnosis of system fault conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1977-01-01

    Methods for generating repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and probabilistic importance are presented. A one-step-ahead optimization procedure, based on the concept of component criticality, minimizing the expected time to diagnose system failure is outlined. Options available to the operator of a nuclear power plant when system fault conditions occur are addressed. A low-pressure emergency core cooling injection system, a standby safeguard system of a pressurized water reactor power plant, is chosen as an example illustrating the methods presented

  16. Fault tree analysis for vital area identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varnado, G.B.; Ortiz, N.R.

    1978-01-01

    The use of fault tree analysis techniques to systematically identify (1) the sabotage events which can lead to release of significant quantities of radioactive materials, (2) the areas of the nuclear power plant in which the sabotage events can be accomplished, and (3) the areas of the plant which must be protected to assure that release does not occur are discussed

  17. Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to

  18. Fault tree analysis: concepts and techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.

    1976-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of fault tree analysis have been developed over the past decade and now predictions from this type analysis are important considerations in the design of many systems such as aircraft, ships and their electronic systems, missiles, and nuclear reactor systems. Routine, hardware-oriented fault tree construction can be automated; however, considerable effort is needed in this area to get the methodology into production status. When this status is achieved, the entire analysis of hardware systems will be automated except for the system definition step. Automated analysis is not undesirable; to the contrary, when verified on adequately complex systems, automated analysis could well become a routine analysis. It could also provide an excellent start for a more in-depth fault tree analysis that includes environmental effects, common mode failure, and human errors. The automated analysis is extremely fast and frees the analyst from the routine hardware-oriented fault tree construction, as well as eliminates logic errors and errors of oversight in this part of the analysis. Automated analysis then affords the analyst a powerful tool to allow his prime efforts to be devoted to unearthing more subtle aspects of the modes of failure of the system

  19. Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2017-01-01

    Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

  20. Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Tonetta, Stefano; Schoitsch, Erwin; Bitsch, Friedemann

    2017-01-01

    Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

  1. An Algorithm for Fault-Tree Construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    An algorithm for performing certain parts of the fault tree construction process is described. Its input is a flow sheet of the plant, a piping and instrumentation diagram, or a wiring diagram of the circuits, to be analysed, together with a standard library of component functional and failure...

  2. Workflow Fault Tree Generation Through Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

    2014-01-01

    We present a framework for the automated generation of fault trees from models of realworld process workflows, expressed in a formalised subset of the popular Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language. To capture uncertainty and unreliability in workflows, we extend this formalism...

  3. Failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.

    1982-07-01

    In this report a methodology of failure diagnosis for complex systems is presented. Systems which can be represented by fault trees are considered. This methodology is based on switching algebra, failure diagnosis of digital circuits and fault tree analysis. Relations between these disciplines are shown. These relations are due to Boolean algebra and Boolean functions used throughout. It will be shown on this basis that techniques of failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis are useful to solve the following problems: 1. describe an efficient search of all failed components if the system is failed. 2. Describe an efficient search of all states which are close to a system failure if the system is still operating. The first technique will improve the availability, the second the reliability and safety. For these problems, the relation to methods of failure diagnosis for combinational circuits is required. Moreover, the techniques are demonstrated for a number of systems which can be represented by fault trees. (orig./RW) [de

  4. Erosion influences the seismicity of active thrust faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steer, Philippe; Simoes, Martine; Cattin, Rodolphe; Shyu, J Bruce H

    2014-11-21

    Assessing seismic hazards remains one of the most challenging scientific issues in Earth sciences. Deep tectonic processes are classically considered as the only persistent mechanism driving the stress loading of active faults over a seismic cycle. Here we show via a mechanical model that erosion also significantly influences the stress loading of thrust faults at the timescale of a seismic cycle. Indeed, erosion rates of about ~0.1-20 mm yr(-1), as documented in Taiwan and in other active compressional orogens, can raise the Coulomb stress by ~0.1-10 bar on the nearby thrust faults over the inter-seismic phase. Mass transfers induced by surface processes in general, during continuous or short-lived and intense events, represent a prominent mechanism for inter-seismic stress loading of faults near the surface. Such stresses are probably sufficient to trigger shallow seismicity or promote the rupture of deep continental earthquakes up to the surface.

  5. KCUT, code to generate minimal cut sets for fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Sang Hoon

    2008-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: KCUT is a software to generate minimal cut sets for fault trees. 2 - Methods: Expand a fault tree into cut sets and delete non minimal cut sets. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Size and complexity of the fault tree

  6. Seismicity and Tectonics of the West Kaibab Fault Zone, AZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilgus, J. T.; Brumbaugh, D. S.

    2014-12-01

    The West Kaibab Fault Zone (WKFZ) is the westernmost bounding structure of the Kaibab Plateau of northern Arizona. The WKFZ is a branching complex of high angle, normal faults downthrown to the west. There are three main faults within the WKFZ, the Big Springs fault with a maximum of 165 m offset, the Muav fault with 350 m of displacement, and the North Road fault having a maximum throw of approximately 90 m. Mapping of geologically recent surface deposits at or crossing the fault contacts indicates that the faults are likely Quaternary with the most recent offsets occurring one of the most seismically active areas in Arizona and lies within the Northern Arizona Seismic Belt (NASB), which stretches across northern Arizona trending NW-SE. The data set for this study includes 156 well documented events with the largest being a M5.75 in 1959 and including a swarm of seven earthquakes in 2012. The seismic data set (1934-2014) reveals that seismic activity clusters in two regions within the study area, the Fredonia cluster located in the NW corner of the study area and the Kaibab cluster located in the south central portion of the study area. The fault plane solutions to date indicate NE-SW to EW extension is occurring in the study area. Source relationships between earthquakes and faults within the WKFZ have not previously been studied in detail. The goal of this study is to use the seismic data set, the available data on faults, and the regional physiography to search for source relationships for the seismicity. Analysis includes source parameters of the earthquake data (location, depth, and fault plane solutions), and comparison of this output to the known faults and areal physiographic framework to indicate any active faults of the WKFZ, or suggested active unmapped faults. This research contributes to a better understanding of the present nature of the WKFZ and the NASB as well.

  7. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  8. New approaches to evaluating fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinnamon, R.M.; Andrews, J.D.

    1997-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis is now a widely accepted technique to assess the probability and frequency of system failure in many industries. For complex systems an analysis may produce hundreds of thousands of combinations of events which can cause system failure (minimal cut sets). The determination of these cut sets can be a very time consuming process even on modern high speed digital computers. Computerised methods, such as bottom-up or top-down approaches, to conduct this analysis are now so well developed that further refinement is unlikely to result in vast reductions in computer time. It is felt that substantial improvement in computer utilisation will only result from a completely new approach. This paper describes the use of a Binary Decision Diagram for Fault Tree Analysis and some ways in which it can be efficiently implemented on a computer. In particular, attention is given to the production of a minimum form of the Binary Decision Diagram by considering the ordering that has to be given to the basic events of the fault tree

  9. Automated fault tree analysis: the GRAFTER system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sancaktar, S.; Sharp, D.R.

    1985-01-01

    An inherent part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the construction and analysis of detailed fault trees. For this purpose, a fault tree computer graphics code named GRAFTER has been developed. The code system centers around the GRAFTER code. This code is used interactively to construct, store, update and print fault trees of small or large sizes. The SIMON code is used to provide data for the basic event probabilities. ENCODE is used to process the GRAFTER files to prepare input for the WAMCUT code. WAMCUT is used to quantify the top event probability and to identify the cutsets. This code system has been extensively used in various PRA projects. It has resulted in reduced manpower costs, increased QA capability, ease of documentation and it has simplified sensitivity analyses. Because of its automated nature, it is also suitable for LIVING PRA Studies which require updating and modifications during the lifetime of the plant. Brief descriptions and capabilities of the GRAFTER, SIMON and ENCODE codes are provided; an application of the GRAFTER system is outlined; and conclusions and comments on the code system are given

  10. High-resolution gravity and seismic-refraction surveys of the Smoke Tree Wash area, Joshua Tree National Park, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenheim, Victoria E.; Rymer, Michael J.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.; Watt, Janet T.; Powell, Robert E.; Matti, Jonathan C.

    2016-03-02

    We describe high-resolution gravity and seismic refraction surveys acquired to determine the thickness of valley-fill deposits and to delineate geologic structures that might influence groundwater flow beneath the Smoke Tree Wash area in Joshua Tree National Park. These surveys identified a sedimentary basin that is fault-controlled. A profile across the Smoke Tree Wash fault zone reveals low gravity values and seismic velocities that coincide with a mapped strand of the Smoke Tree Wash fault. Modeling of the gravity data reveals a basin about 2–2.5 km long and 1 km wide that is roughly centered on this mapped strand, and bounded by inferred faults. According to the gravity model the deepest part of the basin is about 270 m, but this area coincides with low velocities that are not characteristic of typical basement complex rocks. Most likely, the density contrast assumed in the inversion is too high or the uncharacteristically low velocities represent highly fractured or weathered basement rocks, or both. A longer seismic profile extending onto basement outcrops would help differentiate which scenario is more accurate. The seismic velocities also determine the depth to water table along the profile to be about 40–60 m, consistent with water levels measured in water wells near the northern end of the profile.

  11. A seismic fault recognition method based on ant colony optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Xiao, Chuangbai; Li, Xueliang; Wang, Zhenli; Huo, Shoudong

    2018-05-01

    Fault recognition is an important section in seismic interpretation and there are many methods for this technology, but no one can recognize fault exactly enough. For this problem, we proposed a new fault recognition method based on ant colony optimization which can locate fault precisely and extract fault from the seismic section. Firstly, seismic horizons are extracted by the connected component labeling algorithm; secondly, the fault location are decided according to the horizontal endpoints of each horizon; thirdly, the whole seismic section is divided into several rectangular blocks and the top and bottom endpoints of each rectangular block are considered as the nest and food respectively for the ant colony optimization algorithm. Besides that, the positive section is taken as an actual three dimensional terrain by using the seismic amplitude as a height. After that, the optimal route from nest to food calculated by the ant colony in each block is judged as a fault. Finally, extensive comparative tests were performed on the real seismic data. Availability and advancement of the proposed method were validated by the experimental results.

  12. TREDRA, Minimal Cut Sets Fault Tree Plot Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: TREDRA is a computer program for drafting report-quality fault trees. The input to TREDRA is similar to input for standard computer programs that find minimal cut sets from fault trees. Output includes fault tree plots containing all standard fault tree logic and event symbols, gate and event labels, and an output description for each event in the fault tree. TREDRA contains the following features: a variety of program options that allow flexibility in the program output; capability for automatic pagination of the output fault tree, when necessary; input groups which allow labeling of gates, events, and their output descriptions; a symbol library which includes standard fault tree symbols plus several less frequently used symbols; user control of character size and overall plot size; and extensive input error checking and diagnostic oriented output. 2 - Method of solution: Fault trees are generated by user-supplied control parameters and a coded description of the fault tree structure consisting of the name of each gate, the gate type, the number of inputs to the gate, and the names of these inputs. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: TREDRA can produce fault trees with a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 56 levels. The width of each level may range from 3 to 37. A total of 50 transfers is allowed during pagination

  13. Effects of fault heterogeneity on seismic energy and spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragoni, Michele; Santini, Stefano

    2017-12-01

    We study the effects of friction heterogeneity on the dynamics of a seismogenic fault. To this aim, we consider a fault model containing two asperities with different static frictions and a rate-dependent dynamic friction. We consider the seismic events produced by the consecutive failure of the two asperities and study their properties as functions of the ratio between static frictions. In particular, we calculate the moment rate, the stress evolution during fault slip, the average stress drop, the partitioning of energy release, the seismic energy, the far-field waveforms and the spectrum of seismic waves. These quantities depend to various extent on the friction distribution on the fault. In particular, the stress distribution on the fault is always strongly heterogeneous at the beginning of the seismic event. Seismic energy and frictional heat decrease with increasing friction heterogeneity, while seismic efficiency is constant. We obtain an equation relating seismic efficiency to the parameters of the friction law, showing that the efficiency is maximum for smaller values of dynamic friction. The seismic spectrum depends on the friction distribution as to the positions and the values of the minima. However, under the model assumption that the slip durations are the same for both asperities, the corner frequency is independent of the friction distribution, but it depends on the friction law and on the coupling between asperities. The model provides a relation between the total radiated energy and the seismic moment that is consistent with the empirical relation between the two quantities. The fault model with one asperity is also considered as a particular case. The model is applied to the 1965 Rat Islands (Alaska) earthquake and shows the role of fault heterogeneity in controlling the spatial distribution of stress drop as well as the time dependence and the final amount of radiated energy.

  14. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  15. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S

    2018-02-20

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  16. Software development to assist in fault tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews and classifies fault tree construction methods developed for system safety and reliability. We have outlined two generally different approaches: automatic and interactive fault tree construction. Automatic fault tree approach is no jet enough developed to covering various uses in practice. Interactive approach is intending to be support to the analyst (not vice verse like in automatic approach). The aim is not so high as automatic one but it is accessible. We have favored interactive approach as well because to our opinion the process of fault tree construction is very important for better system understanding. We have described our example of interactive fault tree construction approach. Computer code GIFFT (Graphical Interactive Fault Tree Tool) is in phase of intensive testing and final developing. (author) [hr

  17. Efficient fault tree handling - the Asea-Atom approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, G.; Knochenhauer, M.; Mills, R.

    1985-01-01

    In recent years there has been a trend in Swedish Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) work towards coordination of the tools and methods used, in order to facilitate exchange of information and review. Thus, standardized methods for fault tree drawing and basic event coding have been developed as well as a number of computer codes for fault tree handling. The computer code used by Asea-Atom is called SUPER-TREE. As indicated by the name, the key feature is the concept of one super tree containing all the information necessary in the fault tree analysis, i.e. system fault trees, sequence fault trees and component data base. The code has proved to allow great flexibility in the choice of level of detail in the analysis

  18. Analytical propagation of uncertainties through fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    2002-01-01

    A method is presented which enables one to propagate uncertainties described by uniform probability density functions through fault trees. The approach is analytical. It is based on calculating the expected value and the variance of the top event probability. These two parameters are then equated with the corresponding ones of a beta-distribution. An example calculation comparing the analytically calculated beta-pdf (probability density function) with the top event pdf obtained using the Monte-Carlo method shows excellent agreement at a much lower expense of computing time

  19. On the numerical solution of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demichela, M.; Piccinini, N.; Ciarambino, I.; Contini, S.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper an account will be given of the numerical solution of the logic trees directly extracted from the Recursive Operability Analysis. Particular attention will be devoted to the use of the NOT and INH logic gates for correct logical representation of Fault Trees prior to their quantitative resolution. The NOT gate is needed for correct logical representation of events when both non-intervention and correct intervention of a protective system may lead to a Top Event. The INH gate must be used to correctly represent the time link between two events that are both necessary, but must occur in sequence. Some numerical examples will be employed to show both the correct identification of the events entering the INH gates and how use of the AND gate instead of the INH gate leads to overestimation of the probability of occurrence of a Top Event

  20. Computer aided fault tree construction for electrical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.

    1975-01-01

    A technique is presented for automated construction of the Boolean failure logic diagram, called the fault tree, for electrical systems. The method is a technique for synthesizing a fault tree from system-independent component characteristics. Terminology is defined and heuristic examples are given for all phases of the model. The computer constructed fault trees are in conventional format, use conventional symbols, and are deductively constructed from the main failure of interest to the individual component failures. The synthesis technique is generally applicable to automated fault tree construction for other types of systems

  1. Algorithmic fault tree construction by component-based system modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majdara, Aref; Wakabayashi, Toshio

    2008-01-01

    Computer-aided fault tree generation can be easier, faster and less vulnerable to errors than the conventional manual fault tree construction. In this paper, a new approach for algorithmic fault tree generation is presented. The method mainly consists of a component-based system modeling procedure an a trace-back algorithm for fault tree synthesis. Components, as the building blocks of systems, are modeled using function tables and state transition tables. The proposed method can be used for a wide range of systems with various kinds of components, if an inclusive component database is developed. (author)

  2. Fault tree analysis with multistate components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1979-02-01

    A general analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (more than states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of Boolean algebra is required. This is called 'Boolean algebra with restrictions on varibales' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional Boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. Important features of the method are the identification of the complete base and of the smallest irredundant base of a Boolean function which does not necessarily need to be coherent. It is shown that the identification of the complete base of a Boolean function requires the application of some algorithms which are not used in today's computer programmes for fault tree analysis. The problem of statistical dependence among primary components is discussed. The paper includes a small demonstrative example to illustrate the method. The example includes also statistical dependent components. (orig.) [de

  3. Fault tree analysis for reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetti, P.A.

    1971-01-01

    Reliability analysis is playing an increasingly important role in quantitative assessment of system performance for assuring nuclear safety, improving plant performance and plant life, and reducing plant operating costs. The complexity of today's nuclear plants warrant the use of techniques which will provide a comprehensive evaluation of systems in their total context. In particular, fault tree analysis with probability evaluation can play a key role in assuring nuclear safety, in improving plant performance and plant life, and in reducing plant operating costs. The technique provides an all inclusive, versatile mathematical tool for analyzing complex systems. Its application can include a complete plant as well as any of the systems and subsystems. Fault tree analysis provides an objective basis for analyzing system design, performing trade-off studies, analyzing common mode failures, demonstrating compliance with AEC requirements, and justifying system changes or additions. The logic of the approach makes it readily understandable and, therefore, it serves as an effective visibility tool for both engineering and management. (U.S.)

  4. Fault tree analysis of KNICS RPS software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Yong; Kwon, Kee Choon; Koh, Kwang Yong; Jee, Eun Kyoung; Seong, Poong Hyun; Lee, Dae Hyung

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the application of a software Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as one of the analysis techniques for a Software Safety Analysis (SSA) at the design phase and its analysis results for the safety-critical software of a digital reactor protection system, which is called the KNICS RPS, being developed in the KNICS (Korea Nuclear Instrumentation and Control Systems) project. The software modules in the design description were represented by Function Blocks (FBs), and the software FTA was performed based on the well-defined fault tree templates for the FBs. The SSA, which is part of the verification and validation (V and V) activities, was activated at each phase of the software lifecycle for the KNICS RPS. At the design phase, the software HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) and the software FTA were employed in the SSA in such a way that the software HAZOP was performed first and then the software FTA was applied. The software FTA was applied to some critical modules selected from the software HAZOP analysis

  5. Study of fault diagnosis software design for complex system based on fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Run; Li Yazhou; Wang Jianye; Hu Liqin; Wang Jiaqun; Wu Yican

    2012-01-01

    Complex systems always have high-level reliability and safety requirements, and same does their diagnosis work. As a great deal of fault tree models have been acquired during the design and operation phases, a fault diagnosis method which combines fault tree analysis with knowledge-based technology has been proposed. The prototype of fault diagnosis software has been realized and applied to mobile LIDAR system. (authors)

  6. Methods of fault tree analysis and their limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.G.

    1984-12-01

    Some recent methodological developments of fault tree analysis are discussed and limits of fault tree analysis and a criterion for admissibility of structure functions are given. It is shown that there are interesting relations to switching theory and to stochastic processes. (orig./HP) [de

  7. System assessment using modular logic fault tree methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troncoso Fleitas, M.

    1996-01-01

    In the process of a Probabilistic Safety analysis (PSA) study a large number of fault trees are generated by different specialist. Modular Logic Fault Tree Methodology pave the way the way to systematize the procedures and to unify the criteria in the process of systems modulation. An example of of the application of this methodology is shown

  8. Qademah Fault Seismic Data Set - Northern Part

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Is the Qademah fault that was detected in 2010 the main fault? We collected a long 2D profile, 526 m, where the fault that was detected in 2010 is at around 300 m. Layout: We collected 264 CSGs, each has 264 receivers. The shot and receiver interval is 2 m. We also collected an extra 48 CSGs with offset = 528 to 622 m with shot interval = 2 m. The receivers are the same as the main survey.

  9. Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

    2006-01-01

    The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

  10. Automated Fault Interpretation and Extraction using Improved Supplementary Seismic Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollmann, T. A.; Shank, R.

    2017-12-01

    During the interpretation of seismic volumes, it is necessary to interpret faults along with horizons of interest. With the improvement of technology, the interpretation of faults can be expedited with the aid of different algorithms that create supplementary seismic attributes, such as semblance and coherency. These products highlight discontinuities, but still need a large amount of human interaction to interpret faults and are plagued by noise and stratigraphic discontinuities. Hale (2013) presents a method to improve on these datasets by creating what is referred to as a Fault Likelihood volume. In general, these volumes contain less noise and do not emphasize stratigraphic features. Instead, planar features within a specified strike and dip range are highlighted. Once a satisfactory Fault Likelihood Volume is created, extraction of fault surfaces is much easier. The extracted fault surfaces are then exported to interpretation software for QC. Numerous software packages have implemented this methodology with varying results. After investigating these platforms, we developed a preferred Automated Fault Interpretation workflow.

  11. [The Application of the Fault Tree Analysis Method in Medical Equipment Maintenance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongbin

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, the traditional fault tree analysis method is presented, detailed instructions for its application characteristics in medical instrument maintenance is made. It is made significant changes when the traditional fault tree analysis method is introduced into the medical instrument maintenance: gave up the logic symbolic, logic analysis and calculation, gave up its complicated programs, and only keep its image and practical fault tree diagram, and the fault tree diagram there are also differences: the fault tree is no longer a logical tree but the thinking tree in troubleshooting, the definition of the fault tree's nodes is different, the composition of the fault tree's branches is also different.

  12. AFTC Code for Automatic Fault Tree Construction: Users Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopika Vinod; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.

    1999-04-01

    Fault Trees perform a predominant role in reliability and safety analysis of system. Manual construction of fault tree is a very time consuming task and moreover, it won't give a formalized result, since it relies highly on analysts experience and heuristics. This necessitates a computerised fault tree construction, which is still attracting interest of reliability analysts. AFTC software is a user friendly software model for constructing fault trees based on decision tables. Software is equipped with libraries of decision tables for components commonly used in various Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) systems. User is expected to make a nodal diagram of the system, for which fault tree is to be constructed, from the flow sheets available. The text nodal diagram goes as the sole input defining the system flow chart. AFTC software is a rule based expert system which draws the fault tree from the system flow chart and component decision tables. AFTC software gives fault tree in both text and graphic format. Help is provided as how to enter system flow chart and component decision tables. The software is developed in 'C' language. Software is verified with simplified version of the fire water system of an Indian PHWR. Code conversion will be undertaken to create a window based version. (author)

  13. Advanced features of the fault tree solver FTREX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik; Han, Sang Hoon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents advanced features of a fault tree solver FTREX (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert). Fault tree analysis is one of the most commonly used methods for the safety analysis of industrial systems especially for the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of nuclear power plants. Fault trees are solved by the classical Boolean algebra, conventional Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) algorithm, coherent BDD algorithm, and Bayesian networks. FTREX could optionally solve fault trees by the conventional BDD algorithm or the coherent BDD algorithm and could convert the fault trees into the form of the Bayesian networks. The algorithm based on the classical Boolean algebra solves a fault tree and generates MCSs. The conventional BDD algorithm generates a BDD structure of the top event and calculates the exact top event probability. The BDD structure is a factorized form of the prime implicants. The MCSs of the top event could be extracted by reducing the prime implicants in the BDD structure. The coherent BDD algorithm is developed to overcome the shortcomings of the conventional BDD algorithm such as the huge memory requirements and a long run time

  14. From Geodetic Imaging of Seismic and Aseismic Fault Slip to Dynamic Modeling of the Seismic Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avouac, Jean-Philippe

    2015-05-01

    Understanding the partitioning of seismic and aseismic fault slip is central to seismotectonics as it ultimately determines the seismic potential of faults. Thanks to advances in tectonic geodesy, it is now possible to develop kinematic models of the spatiotemporal evolution of slip over the seismic cycle and to determine the budget of seismic and aseismic slip. Studies of subduction zones and continental faults have shown that aseismic creep is common and sometimes prevalent within the seismogenic depth range. Interseismic coupling is generally observed to be spatially heterogeneous, defining locked patches of stress accumulation, to be released in future earthquakes or aseismic transients, surrounded by creeping areas. Clay-rich tectonites, high temperature, and elevated pore-fluid pressure seem to be key factors promoting aseismic creep. The generally logarithmic time evolution of afterslip is a distinctive feature of creeping faults that suggests a logarithmic dependency of fault friction on slip rate, as observed in laboratory friction experiments. Most faults can be considered to be paved with interlaced patches where the friction law is either rate-strengthening, inhibiting seismic rupture propagation, or rate-weakening, allowing for earthquake nucleation. The rate-weakening patches act as asperities on which stress builds up in the interseismic period; they might rupture collectively in a variety of ways. The pattern of interseismic coupling can help constrain the return period of the maximum- magnitude earthquake based on the requirement that seismic and aseismic slip sum to match long-term slip. Dynamic models of the seismic cycle based on this conceptual model can be tuned to reproduce geodetic and seismological observations. The promise and pitfalls of using such models to assess seismic hazard are discussed.

  15. Analysis of large fault trees based on functional decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contini, Sergio; Matuzas, Vaidas

    2011-01-01

    With the advent of the Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) approach in fault tree analysis, a significant enhancement has been achieved with respect to previous approaches, both in terms of efficiency and accuracy of the overall outcome of the analysis. However, the exponential increase of the number of nodes with the complexity of the fault tree may prevent the construction of the BDD. In these cases, the only way to complete the analysis is to reduce the complexity of the BDD by applying the truncation technique, which nevertheless implies the problem of estimating the truncation error or upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability. This paper describes a new method to analyze large coherent fault trees which can be advantageously applied when the working memory is not sufficient to construct the BDD. It is based on the decomposition of the fault tree into simpler disjoint fault trees containing a lower number of variables. The analysis of each simple fault tree is performed by using all the computational resources. The results from the analysis of all simpler fault trees are re-combined to obtain the results for the original fault tree. Two decomposition methods are herewith described: the first aims at determining the minimal cut sets (MCS) and the upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability; the second can be applied to determine the exact value of the top-event unavailability. Potentialities, limitations and possible variations of these methods will be discussed with reference to the results of their application to some complex fault trees.

  16. Analysis of large fault trees based on functional decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contini, Sergio, E-mail: sergio.contini@jrc.i [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, 21020 Ispra (Italy); Matuzas, Vaidas [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, 21020 Ispra (Italy)

    2011-03-15

    With the advent of the Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) approach in fault tree analysis, a significant enhancement has been achieved with respect to previous approaches, both in terms of efficiency and accuracy of the overall outcome of the analysis. However, the exponential increase of the number of nodes with the complexity of the fault tree may prevent the construction of the BDD. In these cases, the only way to complete the analysis is to reduce the complexity of the BDD by applying the truncation technique, which nevertheless implies the problem of estimating the truncation error or upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability. This paper describes a new method to analyze large coherent fault trees which can be advantageously applied when the working memory is not sufficient to construct the BDD. It is based on the decomposition of the fault tree into simpler disjoint fault trees containing a lower number of variables. The analysis of each simple fault tree is performed by using all the computational resources. The results from the analysis of all simpler fault trees are re-combined to obtain the results for the original fault tree. Two decomposition methods are herewith described: the first aims at determining the minimal cut sets (MCS) and the upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability; the second can be applied to determine the exact value of the top-event unavailability. Potentialities, limitations and possible variations of these methods will be discussed with reference to the results of their application to some complex fault trees.

  17. Assessment of faulting and seismic hazards at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, J.L.; Frazier, G.A.; Grant, T.A.

    1989-01-01

    Yucca Mountain is being evaluated for the nation's first high-level nuclear-waste repository. Local faults appear to be capable of moderate earthquakes at recurrence intervals of tens of thousands of years. The major issues identified for the preclosure phase (<100 yrs) are the location and seismic design of surface facilities for handling incoming waste. It is planned to address surface fault rupture by locating facilities where no discernible recent (<100,000 yrs) faulting has occurred and to base the ground motion design on hypothetical earthquakes, postulated on nearby faults, that represent 10,000 yrs of average cumulative displacement. The major tectonic issues identified for the postclosure phase (10,000 yrs) are volcanism (not addressed here) and potential changes to the hydrologic system resulting from a local faulting event which could trigger potential thermal, mechanical, and chemical interactions with the ground water. Extensive studies are planned for resolving these issues. 33 refs., 3 figs

  18. Utilization of fault tree analysis techniques in fire protection work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crass, E.R.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a fault tree model for a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the subsequent use of this model to perform a safe shutdown analysis and determine conformance with Section IIIG of 10 CFR 50, Appendix R. The paper describes the rationale for choosing this analytical tool, the development of the fault tree model, the analysis of the model using the PREP code, disposition of the results, and finally, application of the results to determine the need for plant modifications. It concludes with a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of Fault Tree Methodology for this application

  19. Hysteresis behavior of seismic isolators in earthquakes near a fault ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seismic performance and appropriate design of structures located near the faults has always been a major concern of design engineers. Because during an earthquake; the effects of plasticity will make differences in characteristics of near field records. These pulsed movements at the beginning of records will increase the ...

  20. Seismic Hazard Analysis on a Complex, Interconnected Fault Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, M. T.; Field, E. H.; Milner, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    In California, seismic hazard models have evolved from simple, segmented prescriptive models to much more complex representations of multi-fault and multi-segment earthquakes on an interconnected fault network. During the development of the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), the prevalence of multi-fault ruptures in the modeling was controversial. Yet recent earthquakes, for example, the Kaikora earthquake - as well as new research on the potential of multi-fault ruptures (e.g., Nissen et al., 2016; Sahakian et al. 2017) - have validated this approach. For large crustal earthquakes, multi-fault ruptures may be the norm rather than the exception. As datasets improve and we can view the rupture process at a finer scale, the interconnected, fractal nature of faults is revealed even by individual earthquakes. What is the proper way to model earthquakes on a fractal fault network? We show multiple lines of evidence that connectivity even in modern models such as UCERF3 may be underestimated, although clustering in UCERF3 mitigates some modeling simplifications. We need a methodology that can be applied equally well where the fault network is well-mapped and where it is not - an extendable methodology that allows us to "fill in" gaps in the fault network and in our knowledge.

  1. Multi-Fault Rupture Scenarios in the Brawley Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Rockwell, T. K.; Meltzner, A. J.; Barall, M.

    2017-12-01

    Dynamic rupture complexity is strongly affected by both the geometric configuration of a network of faults and pre-stress conditions. Between those two, the geometric configuration is more likely to be anticipated prior to an event. An important factor in the unpredictability of the final rupture pattern of a group of faults is the time-dependent interaction between them. Dynamic rupture models provide a means to investigate this otherwise inscrutable processes. The Brawley Seismic Zone in Southern California is an area in which this approach might be important for inferring potential earthquake sizes and rupture patterns. Dynamic modeling can illuminate how the main faults in this area, the Southern San Andreas (SSAF) and Imperial faults, might interact with the intersecting cross faults, and how the cross faults may modulate rupture on the main faults. We perform 3D finite element modeling of potential earthquakes in this zone assuming an extended array of faults (Figure). Our results include a wide range of ruptures and fault behaviors depending on assumptions about nucleation location, geometric setup, pre-stress conditions, and locking depth. For example, in the majority of our models the cross faults do not strongly participate in the rupture process, giving the impression that they are not typically an aid or an obstacle to the rupture propagation. However, in some cases, particularly when rupture proceeds slowly on the main faults, the cross faults indeed can participate with significant slip, and can even cause rupture termination on one of the main faults. Furthermore, in a complex network of faults we should not preclude the possibility of a large event nucleating on a smaller fault (e.g. a cross fault) and eventually promoting rupture on the main structure. Recent examples include the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) and Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes, where rupture started on a smaller adjacent segment and later cascaded into a larger

  2. A compendium of computer codes in fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.

    1981-03-01

    In the past ten years principles and methods for a unified system reliability and safety analysis have been developed. Fault tree techniques serve as a central feature of unified system analysis, and there exists a specific discipline within system reliability concerned with the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation. Ever since the fault tree concept was established, computer codes have been developed for qualitative and quantitative analyses. In particular the presentation of the kinetic tree theory and the PREP-KITT code package has influenced the present use of fault trees and the development of new computer codes. This report is a compilation of some of the better known fault tree codes in use in system reliability. Numerous codes are available and new codes are continuously being developed. The report is designed to address the specific characteristics of each code listed. A review of the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation is presented in an introductory chapter, the purpose of which is to give a framework for the validity of the different codes. (Auth.)

  3. Criteria for Seismic Splay Fault Activation During Subduction Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedontney, N.; Templeton, E.; Bhat, H.; Dmowska, R.; Rice, J. R.

    2008-12-01

    As sediment is added to the accretionary prism or removed from the forearc, the material overlying the plate interface must deform to maintain a wedge structure. One of the ways this internal deformation is achieved is by slip on splay faults branching from the main detachment, which are possibly activated as part of a major seismic event. As a rupture propagates updip along the plate interface, it will reach a series of junctions between the shallowly dipping detachment and more steeply dipping splay faults. The amount and distribution of slip on these splay faults and the detachment determines the seafloor deformation and the tsunami waveform. Numerical studies by Kame et al. [JGR, 2003] of fault branching during dynamic slip-weakening rupture in 2D plane strain showed that branch activation depends on the initial stress state, rupture velocity at the branching junction, and branch angle. They found that for a constant initial stress state, with the maximum principal stress at shallow angles to the main fault, branch activation is favored on the compressional side of the fault for a range of branch angles. By extending the part of their work on modeling the branching behavior in the context of subduction zones, where critical taper wedge concepts suggest the angle that the principal stress makes with the main fault is shallow, but not horizontal, we hope to better understand the conditions for splay fault activation and the criteria for significant moment release on the splay. Our aim is to determine the range of initial stresses and relative frictional strengths of the detachment and splay fault that would result in seismic splay fault activation. In aid of that, we conduct similar dynamic rupture analyses to those of Kame et al., but use explicit finite element methods, and take fuller account of overall structure of the zone (rather than focusing just on the branching junction). Critical taper theory requires that the basal fault be weaker than the overlying

  4. Sequence Algebra, Sequence Decision Diagrams and Dynamic Fault Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauzy, Antoine B.

    2011-01-01

    A large attention has been focused on the Dynamic Fault Trees in the past few years. By adding new gates to static (regular) Fault Trees, Dynamic Fault Trees aim to take into account dependencies among events. Merle et al. proposed recently an algebraic framework to give a formal interpretation to these gates. In this article, we extend Merle et al.'s work by adopting a slightly different perspective. We introduce Sequence Algebras that can be seen as Algebras of Basic Events, representing failures of non-repairable components. We show how to interpret Dynamic Fault Trees within this framework. Finally, we propose a new data structure to encode sets of sequences of Basic Events: Sequence Decision Diagrams. Sequence Decision Diagrams are very much inspired from Minato's Zero-Suppressed Binary Decision Diagrams. We show that all operations of Sequence Algebras can be performed on this data structure.

  5. Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

    1988-01-01

    Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

  6. Source characterization and dynamic fault modeling of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, S. K. Y.; Young, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years there are increasing concerns worldwide that industrial activities in the sub-surface can cause or trigger damaging earthquakes. In order to effectively mitigate the damaging effects of induced seismicity, the key is to better understand the source physics of induced earthquakes, which still remain elusive at present. Furthermore, an improved understanding of induced earthquake physics is pivotal to assess large-magnitude earthquake triggering. A better quantification of the possible causes of induced earthquakes can be achieved through numerical simulations. The fault model used in this study is governed by the empirically-derived rate-and-state friction laws, featuring a velocity-weakening (VW) patch embedded into a large velocity-strengthening (VS) region. Outside of that, the fault is slipping at the background loading rate. The model is fully dynamic, with all wave effects resolved, and is able to resolve spontaneous long-term slip history on a fault segment at all stages of seismic cycles. An earlier study using this model has established that aseismic slip plays a major role in the triggering of small repeating earthquakes. This study presents a series of cases with earthquakes occurring on faults with different fault frictional properties and fluid-induced stress perturbations. The effects to both the overall seismicity rate and fault slip behavior are investigated, and the causal relationship between the pre-slip pattern prior to the event and the induced source characteristics is discussed. Based on simulation results, the subsequent step is to select specific cases for laboratory experiments which allow well controlled variables and fault parameters. Ultimately, the aim is to provide better constraints on important parameters for induced earthquakes based on numerical modeling and laboratory data, and hence to contribute to a physics-based induced earthquake hazard assessment.

  7. Algorithms and programs for consequence diagram and fault tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.; Taylor, J.R.

    1976-12-01

    A presentation of algorithms and programs for consequence diagram and sequential fault tree construction that are intended for reliability and disturbance analysis of large systems. The system to be analyzed must be given as a block diagram formed by mini fault trees of individual system components. The programs were written in LISP programming language and run on a PDP8 computer with 8k words of storage. A description is given of the methods used and of the program construction and working. (author)

  8. Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.E.

    1981-01-01

    An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible

  9. Methodology for the Seismic risk assessment in segments of fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The present study establishes the most adequate methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Iberian Peninsula, in particular for low seismicity areas, through a review of methods used in other countries and its application to a certain area in Spain. In this area the geological context and recent activity of a specific tectonic structure is studied in detail, in order to asses its slip rate, and therefore, its capability of generating earthquakes. In the first stage of this project a review of Seismic Hazard Assessment methods used outside Spain was carried out, as well as, a study of several spanish cases. This stage also comprises a review of the spanish seismic record and a study of the general peninsular neotectonic context, this latter to select a particular fault for the next stage. (Author) 117 refs

  10. A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reay, Karen A.; Andrews, John D.

    2002-01-01

    The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events

  11. Time-dependent methodology for fault tree evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.B.

    1976-01-01

    Any fault tree may be evaluated applying the method called the kinetic theory of fault trees. The basic feature of this method as presented here is in that any information on primary failure, type failure or peak failure is derived from three characteristics: probability of existence, failure intensity and failure density. The determination of the said three characteristics for a given phenomenon yields the remaining probabilistic information on the individual aspects of the failure and on their totality for the whole observed period. The probabilistic characteristics are determined by applying the analysis of phenomenon probability. The total time dependent information on the peak failure is obtained by using the type failures (critical paths) of the fault tree. By applying the said process the total time dependent information is obtained for every primary failure and type failure of the fault tree. In the application of the method of the kinetic theory of fault trees represented by the PREP and KITT programmes, the type failures are first obtained using the deterministic testing method or using the Monte Carlo simulation (PREP programme). The respective characteristics are then determined using the kinetic theory of fault trees (KITT programmes). (Oy)

  12. Microcomputer applications of, and modifications to, the modular fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, T.L.; Graves, N.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Whitehead, D.W.

    1994-10-01

    The LaSalle Probabilistic Risk Assessment was the first major application of the modular logic fault trees after the IREP program. In the process of performing the analysis, many errors were discovered in the fault tree modules that led to difficulties in combining the modules to form the final system fault trees. These errors are corrected in the revised modules listed in this report. In addition, the application of the modules in terms of editing them and forming them into the system fault trees was inefficient. Originally, the editing had to be done line by line and no error checking was performed by the computer. This led to many typos and other logic errors in the construction of the modular fault tree files. Two programs were written to help alleviate this problem: (1) MODEDIT - This program allows an operator to retrieve a file for editing, edit the file for the plant specific application, perform some general error checking while the file is being modified, and store the file for later use, and (2) INDEX - This program checks that the modules that are supposed to form one fault tree all link up appropriately before the files are,loaded onto the mainframe computer. Lastly, the modules were not designed for relay type logic common in BWR designs but for solid state type logic. Some additional modules were defined for modeling relay logic, and an explanation and example of their use are included in this report

  13. A practical method for accurate quantification of large fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jong Soo; Cho, Nam Zin

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a practical method to accurately quantify top event probability and importance measures from incomplete minimal cut sets (MCS) of a large fault tree. The MCS-based fault tree method is extensively used in probabilistic safety assessments. Several sources of uncertainties exist in MCS-based fault tree analysis. The paper is focused on quantification of the following two sources of uncertainties: (1) the truncation neglecting low-probability cut sets and (2) the approximation in quantifying MCSs. The method proposed in this paper is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate probability of the discarded MCSs and the sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach complemented by the correction factor approach (CFA). The method provides capability to accurately quantify the two uncertainties and estimate the top event probability and importance measures of large coherent fault trees. The proposed fault tree quantification method has been implemented in the CUTREE code package and is tested on the two example fault trees

  14. Fault detection by surface seismic scanning tunneling macroscope: Field test

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M.

    2014-08-05

    The seismic scanning tunneling macroscope (SSTM) is proposed for detecting the presence of near-surface impedance anomalies and faults. Results with synthetic data are consistent with theory in that scatterers closer to the surface provide brighter SSTM profiles than those that are deeper. The SSTM profiles show superresolution detection if the scatterers are in the near-field region of the recording line. The field data tests near Gulf of Aqaba, Haql, KSA clearly show the presence of the observable fault scarp, and identify the subsurface presence of the hidden faults indicated in the tomograms. Superresolution detection of the fault is achieved, even when the 35 Hz data are lowpass filtered to the 5-10 Hz band.

  15. Fault detection by surface seismic scanning tunneling macroscope: Field test

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M.; Schuster, Gerard T.

    2014-01-01

    The seismic scanning tunneling macroscope (SSTM) is proposed for detecting the presence of near-surface impedance anomalies and faults. Results with synthetic data are consistent with theory in that scatterers closer to the surface provide brighter SSTM profiles than those that are deeper. The SSTM profiles show superresolution detection if the scatterers are in the near-field region of the recording line. The field data tests near Gulf of Aqaba, Haql, KSA clearly show the presence of the observable fault scarp, and identify the subsurface presence of the hidden faults indicated in the tomograms. Superresolution detection of the fault is achieved, even when the 35 Hz data are lowpass filtered to the 5-10 Hz band.

  16. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

    2016-06-10

    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Off-fault seismicity suggests creep below 10 km on the northern San Jacinto Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, M. L.; Beyer, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Within the San Bernardino basin, CA, south of the juncture of the San Jacinto (SJF) and San Andreas faults (SAF), focal mechanisms show normal slip events that are inconsistent with the interseismic strike-slip loading of the region. High-quality (nodal plane uncertainty faults [Anderson et al., 2004]. However, the loading of these normal slip events remains enigmatic because the region is expected to have dextral loading between large earthquake events. These enigmatic normal slip events may be loaded by deep (> 10 km depth) spatially creep along the northern SJF. Steady state models show that over many earthquake cycles, the dextral slip rate on the northern SJF increases southward, placing the San Bernardino basin in extension. In the absence of recent large seismic events that could produce off-fault normal focal mechanisms in the San Bernardino basin, non-uniform deep aseismic slip on the SJF could account for this seismicity. We develop interseismic models that incorporate spatially non-uniform creep below 10 km on the SJF based on steady-state slip distribution. These model results match the pattern of deep normal slip events within the San Bernardino basin. Such deep creep on the SJF may not be detectable from the geodetic signal due to the close proximity of the SAF, whose lack of seismicity suggests that it is locked to 20 km. Interseismic models with 15 km locking depth on both faults are indistinguishable from models with 10 km locking depth on the SJF and 20 km locking depth on the SAF. This analysis suggests that the microseismicity in our multi-decadal catalog may record both the interseismic dextral loading of the region as well as off-fault deformation associated with deep aseismic creep on the northern SJF. If the enigmatic normal slip events of the San Bernardino basin are included in stress inversions from the seismic catalog used to assess seismic hazard, the results may provide inaccurate information about fault loading in this region.

  18. Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

  19. Searching for Seismically Active Faults in the Gulf of Cadiz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio, S.; Antunes, V.; Arroucau, P.

    2015-12-01

    The repeated occurrence of large magnitude earthquakes in southwest Iberia in historical and instrumental times suggests the presence of active fault segments in the region. However, due to an apparently diffuse seismicity pattern defining a broad region of distributed deformation west of Gibraltar Strait, the question of the location, dimension and geometry of such structures is still open to debate. We recently developed a new algorithm for earthquake location in 3D complex media with laterally varying interface depths, which allowed us to relocate 2363 events having occurred from 2007 to 2013, using P- and S-wave catalog arrival times obtained from the Portuguese Meteorological Institute (IPMA, Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera), for a study area lying between 8.5˚W and 5˚W in longitude and 36˚ and 37.5˚ in latitude. The most remarkable change in the seismicity pattern after relocation is an apparent concentration of events, in the North of the Gulf of Cadiz, along a low angle northward-dipping plane rooted at the base of the crust, which could indicate the presence of a major fault. If confirmed, this would be the first structure clearly illuminated by seismicity in a region that has unleashed large magnitude earthquakes. Here, we present results from the joint analysis of focal mechanism solutions and waveform similarity between neighboring events from waveform cross-correlation in order to assess whether those earthquakes occur on the same fault plane.

  20. Vaporization of fault water during seismic slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, André R.; Fokker, Peter A.

    2017-06-01

    Laboratory and numerical studies, as well as field observations, indicate that phase transitions of pore water might be an important process in large earthquakes. We present a model of the thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical processes, including a two-phase mixture model to incorporate the phase transitions of pore water, occurring during fast slip (i.e., a natural earthquake) in order to investigate the effects of vaporization on the coseismic slip. Using parameters from typical natural faults, our modeling shows that vaporization can indeed occur at the shallow depths of an earthquake, irrespective of the wide variability of the parameters involved (sliding velocity, friction coefficient, gouge permeability and porosity, and shear-induced dilatancy). Due to the fast kinetics, water vaporization can cause a rapid slip weakening even when the hydrological conditions of the fault zone are not favorable for thermal pressurization, e.g., when permeability is high. At the same time, the latent heat associated with the phase transition causes the temperature rise in the slip zone to be buffered. Our parametric analyses reveal that the amount of frictional work is the principal factor controlling the onset and activity of vaporization and that it can easily be achieved in earthquakes. Our study shows that coseismic pore fluid vaporization might have played important roles at shallow depths of large earthquakes by enhancing slip weakening and buffering the temperature rise. The combined effects may provide an alternative explanation for the fact that low-temperature anomalies were measured in the slip zones at shallow depths of large earthquakes.

  1. Seismic Slip on an Oblique Detachment Fault at Low Angles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janecke, S. U.; Steely, A. N.; Evans, J. P.

    2008-12-01

    Pseudotachylytes are one of the few accepted indicators of seismic slip along ancient faults. Low-angle normal faults have produced few large earthquakes in historic times and low-angle normal faults (detachment faults) are typically severely misoriented relative to a vertical maximum compressive stress. As a result many geoscientists question whether low-angle normal faults produce earthquakes at low angles. Relationships in southern California show that a major low-angle normal-oblique fault slipped at low angles and produced large earthquakes. The exhumed Late Cenozoic West Salton detachment fault preserves spectacular fault- related pseudotachylytes along its fault plane and injected into its hanging wall and footwall. Composite pseudotachylyte zones are up to 1.25 m thick and persists over lateral distances of at least 10's of meters. Pseudotachylyte is common in most thin sections of damaged fault rocks with more than 20% (by volume) of cataclasite. We recognized the presence of original melt using numerous criteria: abundant spherulites in thin sections, injection structures at both the thin-section and outcrop scale, black aphanitic textures, quenched vein margins, variations in microcrystallite textures and/or size with respect to the vein margin, and glassy textures in hand sample. Multiple earthquakes are inferred to produce the layered "stratigraphy" in some exposures of pseudotachylytes. We infer that the West Salton detachment fault formed and slipped at low angles because it nearly perfectly reactivates a Cretaceous ductile thrust system at the half km scale and dips between 10 and 45 degrees. The about 30 degree NNE dip of the detachment fault on the north side of Yaqui Ridge is likely steeper than its dip during detachment slip because there is local steepening on the flanks of the Yaqui Ridge antiform in a contractional stepover of a crosscutting Quaternary San Felipe dextral fault zone. These relationships indicate a low dip on the detachment

  2. Seismic tomography investigation of the Down Ampney fault research site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, P.D.; Greenwood, P.G.; Raines, M.G.; Rainsbury, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    High resolution tomographic cross-hole seismic surveys have been designed and undertaken for fault characterisation in mudrocks at a higher resolution than is currently used in site investigations. Compressional waves were generated at a frequency of 1.04 kHz and a wavelength of 1.6 m in the formation, and were used to tomographically image a normally faulted clay sequence (Oxford Clay and Kellaways Beds) overlying limestone. The fault plane and lithologies are clearly visible in the tomograms, a 10% difference in velocity between the Oxford Clay and Kellaways Beds, being particularly prominent. A zone of 5% lower ''tomographic - velocity'' was observed to correspond with the fault zone within the Oxford Clay (as predicted from the geological logging of the core) which indicates substantial alteration that could be fluid affected. Geological constraints were found to be a crucial imput to the tomographic inversion, and examples show erroneous results that can arise. Seismic attenuation was very low (reflection observed from 80 m depth) and larger ranges could have been used to investigate larger scale geological structures. (author)

  3. Automatic fault tree generation in the EPR PSA project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villatte, N; Nonclercq, P.; Taupy, S.

    2012-01-01

    Tools (KB3 and Atelier EPS) have been developed at EDF to assist the analysts in building fault trees for PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and importing them into RiskSpectrum (RiskSpectrum is a Swedish code used at EDF for PSA). System modelling is performed using KB3 software with a knowledge base describing generic classes of components with their behaviour and failure modes. Using these classes of components, the analyst can describe (using a graphical system editor): a simplified system diagram from the mechanical system drawings and functional descriptions, the missions of the studied system (in a form of high level fault trees) and its different configurations for the missions. He can also add specific knowledge about the system. Then, the analyst chooses missions and configurations to specify and launch fault trees generations. From the system description, KB3 produces by backward-chaining on rules, detailed system fault trees. These fault trees are finally imported into RiskSpectrum (they are converted by Atelier EPS into a format readable by RiskSpectrum). KB3 and Atelier EPS have been used to create the majority of the fault trees for the EDF EPR Probabilistic Safety Analysis conducted from November 2009 to March 2010. 25 systems were modelled, and 127 fault trees were automatically generated in a rather short time by different analysts with the help of these tools. A feedback shows a lot of advantages to use KB3 and Atelier EPS: homogeneity and consistency between the different generated fault trees, traceability of modelling, control of modelling and last but not least: the automation of detailed fault tree creation relieves the human analyst of this tedious task so that he can focus his attention on more important tasks: modelling the failure of a function. This industrial application has also helped us gather an interesting feedback from the analysts that should help us improve the handling of the tools. We propose in this paper indeed some

  4. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1999-06-22

    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

  5. Report on AECB consultative document C-70: The use of fault trees in licensing submissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has issued Consultative Document C-70, 'The Use of Fault Trees in Licensing Submissions', for public comment. The Advisory Committee on Nuclear Safety (ACNS) has examined this document and ACNS members have met with AECB staff and representatives of the nuclear industry to discuss it. The ACNS presents its comments and recommendations in this report. The consultative document defines a fault tree as a hierarchically-structured graphical representation of system failures and their potential causes. The document then states certain basic characteristics or attributes which fault trees should possess, and certain conditions affecting the use of fault trees. It defines fault tree fundamentals, sets criteria for the application of fault trees to systems and defines ground rules for a fault tree format. Finally, in two appendices, it includes specific rules for fault tree symbols and fault tree description files for computer use. The appendices are referred to in the text as 'acceptable' standards or methods

  6. MAPLE-II. A program for plotting fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.; Van Den Muyzenberg, C.L.

    1987-01-01

    The MAPLE II code is an improved version of the MAPLE program for plotting fault trees. MAPLE II has added features which make it a versatile tool for drawing large and complex logic trees. The code is developed as part of a package for computer aided fault tree construction and analysis in which it is integrated and used as a documentation tool. However the MAPLE II code can be used as a separate program which uses as input a structure function of a tree and a description of the events and gates which make up the tree. This report includes a short description of the code and of its features. Moreover it contains the how-to-use and some indications for implementing the code and for adapting it to different graphics systems

  7. Laboratory scale micro-seismic monitoring of rock faulting and injection-induced fault reactivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarout, J.; Dautriat, J.; Esteban, L.; Lumley, D. E.; King, A.

    2017-12-01

    The South West Hub CCS project in Western Australia aims to evaluate the feasibility and impact of geosequestration of CO2 in the Lesueur sandstone formation. Part of this evaluation focuses on the feasibility and design of a robust passive seismic monitoring array. Micro-seismicity monitoring can be used to image the injected CO2plume, or any geomechanical fracture/fault activity; and thus serve as an early warning system by measuring low-level (unfelt) seismicity that may precede potentially larger (felt) earthquakes. This paper describes laboratory deformation experiments replicating typical field scenarios of fluid injection in faulted reservoirs. Two pairs of cylindrical core specimens were recovered from the Harvey-1 well at depths of 1924 m and 2508 m. In each specimen a fault is first generated at the in situ stress, pore pressure and temperature by increasing the vertical stress beyond the peak in a triaxial stress vessel at CSIRO's Geomechanics & Geophysics Lab. The faulted specimen is then stabilized by decreasing the vertical stress. The freshly formed fault is subsequently reactivated by brine injection and increase of the pore pressure until slip occurs again. This second slip event is then controlled in displacement and allowed to develop for a few millimeters. The micro-seismic (MS) response of the rock during the initial fracturing and subsequent reactivation is monitored using an array of 16 ultrasonic sensors attached to the specimen's surface. The recorded MS events are relocated in space and time, and correlate well with the 3D X-ray CT images of the specimen obtained post-mortem. The time evolution of the structural changes induced within the triaxial stress vessel is therefore reliably inferred. The recorded MS activity shows that, as expected, the increase of the vertical stress beyond the peak led to an inclined shear fault. The injection of fluid and the resulting increase in pore pressure led first to a reactivation of the pre

  8. Process plant alarm diagnosis using synthesised fault tree knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenchard, A.J.

    1990-01-01

    The development of computer based tools, to assist process plant operators in their task of fault/alarm diagnosis, has received much attention over the last twenty five years. More recently, with the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, the research activity in this subject area has heightened. As a result, there are a great variety of fault diagnosis methodologies, using many different approaches to represent the fault propagation behaviour of process plant. These range in complexity from steady state quantitative models to more abstract definitions of the relationships between process alarms. Unfortunately, very few of the techniques have been tried and tested on process plant and even fewer have been judged to be commercial successes. One of the outstanding problems still remains the time and effort required to understand and model the fault propagation behaviour of each considered process. This thesis describes the development of an experimental knowledge based system (KBS) to diagnose process plant faults, as indicated by process variable alarms. In an attempt to minimise the modelling effort, the KBS has been designed to infer diagnoses using a fault tree representation of the process behaviour, generated using an existing fault tree synthesis package (FAULTFINDER). The process is described to FAULTFINDER as a configuration of unit models, derived from a standard model library or by tailoring existing models. The resultant alarm diagnosis methodology appears to work well for hard (non-rectifying) faults, but is likely to be less robust when attempting to diagnose intermittent faults and transient behaviour. The synthesised fault trees were found to contain the bulk of the information required for the diagnostic task, however, this needed to be augmented with extra information in certain circumstances. (author)

  9. Seismic variability of subduction thrust faults: Insights from laboratory models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Faccenna, C.; Ranalli, G.; Heuret, A.

    2011-06-01

    Laboratory models are realized to investigate the role of interface roughness, driving rate, and pressure on friction dynamics. The setup consists of a gelatin block driven at constant velocity over sand paper. The interface roughness is quantified in terms of amplitude and wavelength of protrusions, jointly expressed by a reference roughness parameter obtained by their product. Frictional behavior shows a systematic dependence on system parameters. Both stick slip and stable sliding occur, depending on driving rate and interface roughness. Stress drop and frequency of slip episodes vary directly and inversely, respectively, with the reference roughness parameter, reflecting the fundamental role for the amplitude of protrusions. An increase in pressure tends to favor stick slip. Static friction is a steeply decreasing function of the reference roughness parameter. The velocity strengthening/weakening parameter in the state- and rate-dependent dynamic friction law becomes negative for specific values of the reference roughness parameter which are intermediate with respect to the explored range. Despite the simplifications of the adopted setup, which does not address the problem of off-fault fracturing, a comparison of the experimental results with the depth distribution of seismic energy release along subduction thrust faults leads to the hypothesis that their behavior is primarily controlled by the depth- and time-dependent distribution of protrusions. A rough subduction fault at shallow depths, unable to produce significant seismicity because of low lithostatic pressure, evolves into a moderately rough, velocity-weakening fault at intermediate depths. The magnitude of events in this range is calibrated by the interplay between surface roughness and subduction rate. At larger depths, the roughness further decreases and stable sliding becomes gradually more predominant. Thus, although interplate seismicity is ultimately controlled by tectonic parameters (velocity of

  10. Fault diagnosis of power transformer based on fault-tree analysis (FTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongliang; Li, Xiaoqiang; Ma, Jianwei; Li, SuoYu

    2017-05-01

    Power transformers is an important equipment in power plants and substations, power distribution transmission link is made an important hub of power systems. Its performance directly affects the quality and health of the power system reliability and stability. This paper summarizes the five parts according to the fault type power transformers, then from the time dimension divided into three stages of power transformer fault, use DGA routine analysis and infrared diagnostics criterion set power transformer running state, finally, according to the needs of power transformer fault diagnosis, by the general to the section by stepwise refinement of dendritic tree constructed power transformer fault

  11. Fault tree analysis. Implementation of the WAM-codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bento, J.P.; Poern, K.

    1979-07-01

    The report describes work going on at Studsvik at the implementation of the WAM code package for fault tree analysis. These codes originally developed under EPRI contract by Sciences Applications Inc, allow, in contrast with other fault tree codes, all Boolean operations, thus allowing modeling of ''NOT'' conditions and dependent components. To concretize the implementation of these codes, the auxiliary feed-water system of the Swedish BWR Oskarshamn 2 was chosen for the reliability analysis. For this system, both the mean unavailability and the probability density function of the top event - undesired event - of the system fault tree were calculated, the latter using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The present study is the first part of a work performed under contract with the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate. (author)

  12. Improvement of testing and maintenance based on fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2000-01-01

    Testing and maintenance of safety equipment is an important issue, which significantly contributes to safe and efficient operation of a nuclear power plant. In this paper a method, which extends the classical fault tree with time, is presented. Its mathematical model is represented by a set of equations, which include time requirements defined in the house event matrix. House events matrix is a representation of house events switched on and off through the discrete points of time. It includes house events, which timely switch on and off parts of the fault tree in accordance with the status of the plant configuration. Time dependent top event probability is calculated by the fault tree evaluations. Arrangement of components outages is determined on base of minimization of mean system unavailability. The results show that application of the method may improve the time placement of testing and maintenance activities of safety equipment. (author)

  13. Fault tree technique: advances in probabilistic and logical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.; Amendola, A.; Contini, S.; Squellati, G.

    1982-01-01

    Fault tree reliability analysis is used for assessing the risk associated to systems of increasing complexity (phased mission systems, systems with multistate components, systems with non-monotonic structure functions). Much care must be taken to make sure that fault tree technique is not used beyond its correct validity range. To this end a critical review of mathematical foundations of reliability fault tree analysis is carried out. Limitations are enlightened and potential solutions to open problems are suggested. Moreover an overview is given on the most recent developments in the implementation of an integrated software (SALP-MP, SALP-NOT, SALP-CAFT Codes) for the analysis of a wide class of systems

  14. Simulating spontaneous aseismic and seismic slip events on evolving faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrendörfer, Robert; van Dinther, Ylona; Pranger, Casper; Gerya, Taras

    2017-04-01

    Plate motion along tectonic boundaries is accommodated by different slip modes: steady creep, seismic slip and slow slip transients. Due to mainly indirect observations and difficulties to scale results from laboratory experiments to nature, it remains enigmatic which fault conditions favour certain slip modes. Therefore, we are developing a numerical modelling approach that is capable of simulating different slip modes together with the long-term fault evolution in a large-scale tectonic setting. We extend the 2D, continuum mechanics-based, visco-elasto-plastic thermo-mechanical model that was designed to simulate slip transients in large-scale geodynamic simulations (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). We improve the numerical approach to accurately treat the non-linear problem of plasticity (see also EGU 2017 abstract by Pranger et al.). To resolve a wide slip rate spectrum on evolving faults, we develop an invariant reformulation of the conventional rate-and-state dependent friction (RSF) and adapt the time step (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). A crucial part of this development is a conceptual ductile fault zone model that relates slip rates along discrete planes to the effective macroscopic plastic strain rates in the continuum. We test our implementation first in a simple 2D setup with a single fault zone that has a predefined initial thickness. Results show that deformation localizes in case of steady creep and for very slow slip transients to a bell-shaped strain rate profile across the fault zone, which suggests that a length scale across the fault zone may exist. This continuum length scale would overcome the common mesh-dependency in plasticity simulations and question the conventional treatment of aseismic slip on infinitely thin fault zones. We test the introduction of a diffusion term (similar to the damage description in Lyakhovsky et al., JMPS, 2011) into the state evolution equation and its effect on (de-)localization during faster slip events. We compare

  15. Application Research of Fault Tree Analysis in Grid Communication System Corrective Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Yang, Zhenwei; Kang, Mei

    2018-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply the fault tree analysis method to the corrective maintenance field of grid communication system. Through the establishment of the fault tree model of typical system and the engineering experience, the fault tree analysis theory is used to analyze the fault tree model, which contains the field of structural function, probability importance and so on. The results show that the fault tree analysis can realize fast positioning and well repairing of the system. Meanwhile, it finds that the analysis method of fault tree has some guiding significance to the reliability researching and upgrading f the system.

  16. Seismic anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine fault, New Zealand, estimated by seismic interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, R.; Okada, T.; Yoshida, K.; Townend, J.; Boese, C. M.; Baratin, L. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Savage, M. K.

    2016-12-01

    We estimate shear wave velocity anisotropy in shallow crust near the Alpine fault using seismic interferometry of borehole vertical arrays. We utilized four borehole observations: two sensors are deployed in two boreholes of the Deep Fault Drilling Project in the hanging wall side, and the other two sites are located in the footwall side. Surface sensors deployed just above each borehole are used to make vertical arrays. Crosscorrelating rotated horizontal seismograms observed by the borehole and surface sensors, we extracted polarized shear waves propagating from the bottom to the surface of each borehole. The extracted shear waves show polarization angle dependence of travel time, indicating shear wave anisotropy between the two sensors. In the hanging wall side, the estimated fast shear wave directions are parallel to the Alpine fault. Strong anisotropy of 20% is observed at the site within 100 m from the Alpine fault. The hanging wall consists of mylonite and schist characterized by fault parallel foliation. In addition, an acoustic borehole imaging reveals fractures parallel to the Alpine fault. The fault parallel anisotropy suggest structural anisotropy is predominant in the hanging wall, demonstrating consistency of geological and seismological observations. In the footwall side, on the other hand, the angle between the fast direction and the strike of the Alpine fault is 33-40 degrees. Since the footwall is composed of granitoid that may not have planar structure, stress induced anisotropy is possibly predominant. The direction of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) estimated by focal mechanisms of regional earthquakes is 55 degrees of the Alpine fault. Possible interpretation of the difference between the fast direction and SHmax direction is depth rotation of stress field near the Alpine fault. Similar depth rotation of stress field is also observed in the SAFOD borehole at the San Andreas fault.

  17. A computer code for fault tree calculations: PATREC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blin, A.; Carnino, A.; Koen, B.V.; Duchemin, B.; Lanore, J.M.; Kalli, H.

    1978-01-01

    A computer code for evaluating the reliability of complex system by fault tree is described in this paper. It uses pattern recognition approach and programming techniques from IBM PL1 language. It can take account of many of the present day problems: multi-dependencies treatment, dispersion in the reliability data parameters, influence of common mode failures. The code is running currently since two years now in Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique Saclay center and shall be used in a future extension for automatic fault trees construction

  18. Do scaly clays control seismicity on faulted shale rocks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orellana, Luis Felipe; Scuderi, Marco M.; Collettini, Cristiano; Violay, Marie

    2018-04-01

    One of the major challenges regarding the disposal of radioactive waste in geological formations is to ensure isolation of radioactive contamination from the environment and the population. Shales are suitable candidates as geological barriers. However, the presence of tectonic faults within clay formations put the long-term safety of geological repositories into question. In this study, we carry out frictional experiments on intact samples of Opalinus Clay, i.e. the host rock for nuclear waste storage in Switzerland. We report experimental evidence suggesting that scaly clays form at low normal stress (≤20 MPa), at sub-seismic velocities (≤300 μm/s) and is related to pre-existing bedding planes with an ongoing process where frictional sliding is the controlling deformation mechanism. We have found that scaly clays show a velocity-weakening and -strengthening behaviour, low frictional strength, and poor re-strengthening over time, conditions required to allow the potential nucleation and propagation of earthquakes within the scaly clays portion of the formation. The strong similarities between the microstructures of natural and experimental scaly clays suggest important implications for the slip behaviour of shallow faults in shales. If natural and anthropogenic perturbations modify the stress conditions of the fault zone, earthquakes might have the potential to nucleate within zones of scaly clays controlling the seismicity of the clay-rich tectonic system, thus, potentially compromising the long-term safeness of geological repositories situated in shales.

  19. Seismic Imaging of the West Napa Fault in Napa, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Sickler, R. R.; Nevitt, J. M.; Criley, C.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, we acquired high-resolution P- and S-wave seismic data along a 120-m-long, SW-NE-trending profile in Napa, California. Our seismic survey was designed to image a strand of the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ), which ruptured during the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake. We separately acquired P- and S-wave data at every station using multiple hammer hits, which were edited and stacked into individual shot gathers in the lab. Each shot was co-located with and recorded by 118 P-wave (40-Hz) geophones, spaced at 1 m, and by 180 S-wave (4.5-Hz) geophones, spaced at 1 m. We developed both P- and S-wave tomographic velocity models, as well as Poisson's ratio and a Vp/Vs ratio models. We observed a well-defined zone of elevated Vp/Vs ratios below about 10 m depth, centered beneath the observed surface rupture. P-wave reflection images show that the fault forms a flower-structure in the upper few tens of meters. This method has been shown to delineate fault structures even in areas of rough terrain.

  20. Computer-oriented approach to fault-tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, S.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1976-11-01

    A methodology for systematically constructing fault trees for general complex systems is developed and applied, via the Computer Automated Tree (CAT) program, to several systems. A means of representing component behavior by decision tables is presented. The method developed allows the modeling of components with various combinations of electrical, fluid and mechanical inputs and outputs. Each component can have multiple internal failure mechanisms which combine with the states of the inputs to produce the appropriate output states. The generality of this approach allows not only the modeling of hardware, but human actions and interactions as well. A procedure for constructing and editing fault trees, either manually or by computer, is described. The techniques employed result in a complete fault tree, in standard form, suitable for analysis by current computer codes. Methods of describing the system, defining boundary conditions and specifying complex TOP events are developed in order to set up the initial configuration for which the fault tree is to be constructed. The approach used allows rapid modifications of the decision tables and systems to facilitate the analysis and comparison of various refinements and changes in the system configuration and component modeling

  1. WAMCUT, a computer code for fault tree evaluation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.

    1978-06-01

    WAMCUT is a code in the WAM family which produces the minimum cut sets (MCS) for a given fault tree. The MCS are useful as they provide a qualitative evaluation of a system, as well as providing a means of determining the probability distribution function for the top of the tree. The program is very efficient and will produce all the MCS in a very short computer time span. 22 figures, 4 tables

  2. FTAP, Minimal Cut Sets of Arbitrary Fault Trees. FRTPLT, Fault Tree Structure and Logical Gates Plot for Program FTAP. FRTGEN, Fault Trees by Sub-tree Generator from Parent Tree for Program FTAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willie, Randall R.; Rabien, U.

    1997-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: FTAP is a general-purpose program for deriving minimal reliability cut and path set families from the fault tree for a complex system. The program has a number of useful features that make it well-suited to nearly all fault tree applications. An input fault tree may specify the system state as any logical function of subsystem or component state variables or complements of these variables; thus, for instance, 'exclusive-or' type relations may be formed. When fault tree logical relations involve complements of state variables, the analyst may instruct FTAP to produce a family of prime implicants, a generalization of the minimal cut set concept. The program offers the flexibility of several distinct methods of generating cut set families. FTAP can also identify certain subsystems as system modules and provide a collection of minimal cut set families that essentially expresses the system state as a function of these module state variables. Another feature allows a useful subfamily to be obtained when the family of minimal cut sets or prime implicants is too large to be found in its entirety; this subfamily may consist of only those sets not containing more than some fixed number of elements or only those sets 'interesting' to the analyst in some special sense. Finally, the analyst can modify the input fault tree in various ways by declaring state variables identically true or false. 2 - Method of solution: Fault tree methods are based on the observation that the system state, either working or failed, can usually be expressed as a Boolean relation between states of several large, readily identifiable subsystems. The state of each subsystem in turn depends on states of simpler subsystems and components which compose it, so that the state of the system itself is determined by a hierarchy of logical relationships between states of subsystems. A fault tree is a graphical representation of these relationships. 3 - Restrictions on the

  3. Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

    2017-11-01

    Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Evidence for chaotic fault interactions in the seismicity of the San Andreas fault and Nankai trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jie; Turcotte, D. L.

    1990-01-01

    The dynamical behavior introduced by fault interactions is examined here using a simple spring-loaded, slider-block model with velocity-weakening friction. The model consists of two slider blocks coupled to each other and to a constant-velocity driver by elastic springs. For an asymmetric system in which the frictional forces on the two blocks are not equal, the solutions exhibit chaotic behavior. The system's behavior over a range of parameter values seems to be generally analogous to that of weakly coupled segments of an active fault. Similarities between the model simulations and observed patterns of seismicity on the south central San Andreas fault in California and in the Nankai trough along the coast of southwestern Japan.

  5. Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.; Stein, R.S.; Simpson, R.W.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50-100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

  6. Study on the scope of fault tree method applicability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Taiju

    1980-03-01

    In fault tree analysis of the reliability of nuclear safety system, including reliability analysis of nuclear protection system, there seem to be some documents in which application of the fault tree method is unreasonable. In fault tree method, the addition rule and the multiplication rule are usually used. The addition rule and the multiplication rule must hold exactly or at least practically. The addition rule has no problem but the multiplication rule has occasionally some problem. For unreliability, mean unavailability and instantaneous unavailability of the elements, holding or not of the multiplication rule has been studied comprehensively. Between the unreliability of each element without maintenance, the multiplication rule holds. Between the instantaneous unavailability of each element, with maintenance or not, the multiplication rule also holds. Between the unreliability of each subsystem with maintenance, however, the multiplication rule does not hold, because the product value is larger than the value of unreliability for a parallel system consisting of the two subsystems with maintenance. Between the mean unavailability of each element without maintenance, the multiplication rule also does not hold, because the product value is smaller than the value of mean unavailability for a parallel system consisting of the two elements without maintenance. In these cases, therefore, the fault tree method may not be applied by rote for reliability analysis of the system. (author)

  7. MFAULT: a computer program for analyzing fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelto, P.J.; Purcell, W.L.

    1977-11-01

    A description and user instructions are presented for MFAULT, a FORTRAN computer program for fault tree analysis. MFAULT identifies the cut sets of a fault tree, calculates their probabilities, and screens the cut sets on the basis of specified cut-offs on probability and/or cut set length. MFAULT is based on an efficient upward-working algorithm for cut set identification. The probability calculations are based on the assumption of small probabilities and constant hazard rates (i.e., exponential failure distributions). Cut sets consisting of repairable components (basic events) only, non-repairable components only, or mixtures of both types can be evaluated. Components can be on-line or standby. Unavailability contributions from pre-existing failures, failures on demand, and testing and maintenance down-time can be handled. MFAULT can analyze fault trees with AND gates, OR gates, inhibit gates, on switches (houses) and off switches. The code is presently capable of finding up to ten event cut sets from a fault tree with up to 512 basic events and 400 gates. It is operational on the CONTROL DATA CYBER 74 computer. 11 figures

  8. Verification of Fault Tree Models with RBDGG Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol

    2010-01-01

    Currently, fault tree analysis is widely used in the field of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). To guarantee the correctness of fault tree models, which are usually manually constructed by analysts, a review by other analysts is widely used for verifying constructed fault tree models. Recently, an extension of the reliability block diagram was developed, which is named as RBDGG (reliability block diagram with general gates). The advantage of the RBDGG methodology is that the structure of a RBDGG model is very similar to the actual structure of the analyzed system and, therefore, the modeling of a system for a system reliability and unavailability analysis becomes very intuitive and easy. The main idea of the development of the RBDGG methodology is similar to that of the development of the RGGG (Reliability Graph with General Gates) methodology. The difference between the RBDGG methodology and RGGG methodology is that the RBDGG methodology focuses on the block failures while the RGGG methodology focuses on the connection line failures. But, it is also known that an RGGG model can be converted to an RBDGG model and vice versa. In this paper, a new method for the verification of the constructed fault tree models using the RBDGG methodology is proposed and demonstrated

  9. Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis | Tyagi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This approach can be widely used to improve the reliability and to reduce the operating cost of a system. The proposed techniques are discussed and illustrated by taking an example of a nuclear power plant. Keywords: Fault tree, Triangular and Trapezoidal fuzzy number, Fuzzy importance, Ranking of fuzzy numbers ...

  10. Quantitative security and safety analysis with attack-fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2017-01-01

    Cyber physical systems, like power plants, medical devices and data centers have to meet high standards, both in terms of safety (i.e. absence of unintentional failures) and security (i.e. no disruptions due to malicious attacks). This paper presents attack fault trees (AFTs), a formalism that

  11. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  12. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  13. Postglacial seismic activity along the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojala, Antti E. K.; Mattila, Jussi; Ruskeeniemi, Timo; Palmu, Jukka-Pekka; Lindberg, Antero; Hänninen, Pekka; Sutinen, Raimo

    2017-10-01

    Analysis of airborne LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEMs), trenching of Quaternary deposits, and diamond drilling through faulted bedrock was conducted to characterize the geological structure and full slip profiles of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu postglacial fault (PGF) complex in northern Finland. The PGF systems are recognized from LiDAR DEMs as a complex of surface ruptures striking SW-NE, cutting through late-Weichselian till, and associated with several postglacial landslides within 10 km. Evidence from the terrain rupture characteristics, the deformed and folded structure of late-Weichselian till, and the 14C age of 11,300 cal BP from buried organic matter underneath the Sotka landslide indicates a postglacial origin of the Riikonkumpu fault (PGF). The fracture frequency and lithology of drill cores and fault geometry in the trench log indicate that the Riikonkumpu PGF dips to WNW with a dip angle of 40-45° at the Riikonkumpu site and close to 60° at the Riikonvaara site. A fault length of 19 km and the mean and maximum cumulative vertical displacement of 1.3 m and 4.1 m, respectively, of the Riikonkumpu PGF system indicate that the fault potentially hosted an earthquake with a moment magnitude MW ≈ 6.7-7.3 assuming that slip was accumulated in one seismic event. Our interpretation further suggests that the Riikonkumpu PGF system is linked to the Isovaara PGF system and that, together, they form a larger Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex. Relationships between the 38-km-long rupture of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu complex and the fault offset parameters, with cumulative displacement of 1.5 and 8.3 m, respectively, indicate that the earthquake(s) contributing to the PGF complex potentially had a moment magnitude of MW ≈ 6.9-7.5. In order to adequately sample the uncertainty space, the moment magnitude was also estimated for each major segment within the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu PGF complex. These estimates vary roughly between MW ≈ 5-8 for the individual

  14. DIAGNOSTICS OF META-INSTABLE STATE OF SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Bornyakov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the results of a laboratory simulation of the seismic fault reactivation by “stick-slip” process, it was shown that the system of two blocks just before an impulse offset goes through the meta-instable dynamic state, with early and late stages of meta-instability [Ma et al., 2012]. In the first stage the offset begins in slow stationary mode with slow stresses relaxation on contact between blocks. In the second stage of the “accelerated synergies” strain rate increases and, subsequently, the deformation process through a process of self-organization came to dynamic impulse offset. The experimental results were used for interpretation of the results of spectral analysis of the deformation monitoring data. The data were held within the southern part ofLakeBaikal, where Kultuk earthquake (27.08.2008, Ms=6.1. took place. Its epicenter was located in the South end zone of the main Sayan fault. Monitoring of deformations of rocks was carried out from April to November2008 in tunnel, located at30 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. The time series data was divided into month periods and then the periods were processed by the method of spectral analysis. The results showed that before the earthquake has ordered view spectrogram, whereas in other time intervals, both before and after the earthquake such orderliness in spectrograms is missing. An ordered view spectrograms for deformation monitoring data can be interpreted as a consequence of the self-organiza­tion of deformation process in the transition of seismically active fault into meta-unstable before the Kultuk earthquake.

  15. Improving fault image by determination of optimum seismic survey parameters using ray-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffarzadeh, Sadegh; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Hasani, Hossein; Talebi, Mohammad Ali

    2018-06-01

    In complex structures such as faults, salt domes and reefs, specifying the survey parameters is more challenging and critical owing to the complicated wave field behavior involved in such structures. In the petroleum industry, detecting faults has become crucial for reservoir potential where faults can act as traps for hydrocarbon. In this regard, seismic survey modeling is employed to construct a model close to the real structure, and obtain very realistic synthetic seismic data. Seismic modeling software, the velocity model and parameters pre-determined by conventional methods enable a seismic survey designer to run a shot-by-shot virtual survey operation. A reliable velocity model of structures can be constructed by integrating the 2D seismic data, geological reports and the well information. The effects of various survey designs can be investigated by the analysis of illumination maps and flower plots. Also, seismic processing of the synthetic data output can describe the target image using different survey parameters. Therefore, seismic modeling is one of the most economical ways to establish and test the optimum acquisition parameters to obtain the best image when dealing with complex geological structures. The primary objective of this study is to design a proper 3D seismic survey orientation to achieve fault zone structures through ray-tracing seismic modeling. The results prove that a seismic survey designer can enhance the image of fault planes in a seismic section by utilizing the proposed modeling and processing approach.

  16. Active fault and other geological studies for seismic assessment: present state and problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakimi, Toshihiro

    1997-01-01

    Evaluation system of earthquakes from an active fault is, in Japan, based on the characteristic earthquake model of a wide sense that postulates essentially the same (nearly the maximum) magnitude and recurrence interval during the recent geological times. Earthquake magnitude M is estimated by empirical relations among M, surface rupture length L, and surface fault displacement D per event of the earthquake faults on land in Japan. Recurrence interval R of faulting/earthquake is calculated from D and the long-term slip rate S of a fault as R=D/S. Grouping or segmentation of complicatedly distributed faults is an important, but difficult problem in order to distinguish a seismogenic fault unit corresponding to an individual characteristic earthquake. If the time t of the latest event is obtained, the 'cautiousness' of a fault can be judged from R-t or t/R. According to this idea, several faults whose t/R exceed 0.5 have been designated as the 'precaution faults' having higher probability of earthquake occurrence than the others. A part of above evaluation has been introduced at first into the seismic-safety examination system of NPPs in 1978. According to the progress of research on active faults, the weight of interest in respect to the seismic hazard assessment shifted gradually from the historic data to the fault data. Most of recent seismic hazard maps have been prepared in consideration with active faults on land in Japan. Since the occurrence of the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, social attention has been concentrated upon the seismic hazard due to active faults, because this event was generated from a well-known active fault zone that had been warned as a 'precaution fault'. In this paper, a few recent topics on other geological and geotechnical researches aiming at improving the seismic safety of NPPs in Japan were also introduced. (J.P.N.)

  17. Active fault and other geological studies for seismic assessment: present state and problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kakimi, Toshihiro [Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    Evaluation system of earthquakes from an active fault is, in Japan, based on the characteristic earthquake model of a wide sense that postulates essentially the same (nearly the maximum) magnitude and recurrence interval during the recent geological times. Earthquake magnitude M is estimated by empirical relations among M, surface rupture length L, and surface fault displacement D per event of the earthquake faults on land in Japan. Recurrence interval R of faulting/earthquake is calculated from D and the long-term slip rate S of a fault as R=D/S. Grouping or segmentation of complicatedly distributed faults is an important, but difficult problem in order to distinguish a seismogenic fault unit corresponding to an individual characteristic earthquake. If the time t of the latest event is obtained, the `cautiousness` of a fault can be judged from R-t or t/R. According to this idea, several faults whose t/R exceed 0.5 have been designated as the `precaution faults` having higher probability of earthquake occurrence than the others. A part of above evaluation has been introduced at first into the seismic-safety examination system of NPPs in 1978. According to the progress of research on active faults, the weight of interest in respect to the seismic hazard assessment shifted gradually from the historic data to the fault data. Most of recent seismic hazard maps have been prepared in consideration with active faults on land in Japan. Since the occurrence of the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, social attention has been concentrated upon the seismic hazard due to active faults, because this event was generated from a well-known active fault zone that had been warned as a `precaution fault`. In this paper, a few recent topics on other geological and geotechnical researches aiming at improving the seismic safety of NPPs in Japan were also introduced. (J.P.N.)

  18. Fault trees based on past accidents. Factorial analysis of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaillant, M.

    1977-01-01

    The method of the fault tree is already useful in the qualitative step before any reliability calculation. The construction of the tree becomes even simpler when we just want to describe how the events happened. Differently from screenplays that introduce several possibilities by means of the conjunction OR, you only have here the conjunction AND, which will not be written at all. This method is presented by INRS (1) for the study of industrial injuries; it may also be applied to material damages. (orig.) [de

  19. Transposing an active fault database into a seismic hazard fault model for nuclear facilities. Pt. 1. Building a database of potentially active faults (BDFA) for metropolitan France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jomard, Herve; Cushing, Edward Marc; Baize, Stephane; Chartier, Thomas [IRSN - Institute of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Palumbo, Luigi; David, Claire [Neodyme, Joue les Tours (France)

    2017-07-01

    The French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), with the support of the Ministry of Environment, compiled a database (BDFA) to define and characterize known potentially active faults of metropolitan France. The general structure of BDFA is presented in this paper. BDFA reports to date 136 faults and represents a first step toward the implementation of seismic source models that would be used for both deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard calculations. A robustness index was introduced, highlighting that less than 15% of the database is controlled by reasonably complete data sets. An example of transposing BDFA into a fault source model for PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) calculation is presented for the Upper Rhine Graben (eastern France) and exploited in the companion paper (Chartier et al., 2017, hereafter Part 2) in order to illustrate ongoing challenges for probabilistic fault-based seismic hazard calculations.

  20. Systems analysis approach to probabilistic modeling of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomew, R.J.; Qualls, C.R.

    1985-01-01

    A method of probabilistic modeling of fault tree logic combined with stochastic process theory (Markov modeling) has been developed. Systems are then quantitatively analyzed probabilistically in terms of their failure mechanisms including common cause/common mode effects and time dependent failure and/or repair rate effects that include synergistic and propagational mechanisms. The modeling procedure results in a state vector set of first order, linear, inhomogeneous, differential equations describing the time dependent probabilities of failure described by the fault tree. The solutions of this Failure Mode State Variable (FMSV) model are cumulative probability distribution functions of the system. A method of appropriate synthesis of subsystems to form larger systems is developed and applied to practical nuclear power safety systems

  1. Mode automata and their compilation into fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauzy, Antoine

    2002-01-01

    In this article, we advocate the use of mode automata as a high level representation language for reliability studies. Mode automata are states/transitions based representations with the additional notion of flow. They can be seen as a generalization of both finite capacity Petri nets and block diagrams. They can be assembled into hierarchies by means of composition operations. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, we introduce mode automata and we discuss their relationship with other formalisms. Second, we propose an algorithm to compile mode automata into Boolean equations (fault trees). Such a compilation is of interest for two reasons. First, assessment tools for Boolean models are much more efficient than those for states/transitions models. Second, the automated generation of fault trees from higher level representations makes easier their maintenance through the life cycle of systems under study

  2. Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Ekariansyah, Andi Sofrany; Tjahjono, Hendro

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is to evaluate epistemic uncertainty in fuzzy fault tree analysis. • Fuzzy probabilities represent likelihood occurrences of all events in a fault tree. • A fuzzy multiplication rule quantifies epistemic uncertainty of minimal cut sets. • A fuzzy complement rule estimate epistemic uncertainty of the top event. • The proposed FPFTA has successfully evaluated the U.S. Combustion Engineering RPS. - Abstract: A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering systems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is performed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis

  3. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  4. Seismic cycle and seismic risk of an active faults network: the Corinth rift case (Greece)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiselet, Aurelien

    2014-01-01

    The Corinth rift (Greece) is one of the regions with the highest strain rates (16 mm/y extension rate) in the Euro-Mediterranean area and as such it has long been identified as a site of major importance for earthquake studies in Europe (20 years of research by the Corinth Rift Laboratory and 4 years of in-depth studies by the ANR-SISCOR project). This enhanced knowledge, acquired in particular, in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth (CRL region), an area about 50 by 40 km 2 , between the city of Patras to the west and the city of Aigion to the east, provides an excellent opportunity to compare fault-based (FB) and classical seismo-tectonic (ST) approaches currently used in seismic hazard assessment studies. An homogeneous earthquake catalogue was thus constructed for the purpose of this study along with a comprehensive database of all relevant geological, geodetic and geophysical information available in the literature and recently collected within the ANR-SISCOR project. The homogenized Mw earthquake catalogue is composed of data from the National Observatory of Athens and from the university of Thessaloniki as well as data acquired through historical and instrumental work performed within the ANR-SISCOR group for the CRL region. A frequency magnitude analysis confirms that seismicity rates are governed by Gutenberg-Richter (GR) statistic for 1.2 =6 earthquakes were computed for the region of study. Time dependent models (Brownian Passage time and Weibull probability distributions) were also explored. The probability (normalized by area) of a M≥6.0 earthquake is found to be greater in the CRL region compared to the eastern part of the Corinth rift. Probability estimates corresponding to the 16. and 84. percentile are also provided, as a means of representing the range of uncertainties in the results. Probability estimates based on the ST-approach are then compared to those based on the FB approach approach. In general ST tends to overestimate probabilities

  5. RAFT: a computer program for fault tree risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seybold, G.D.

    1977-11-01

    A description and user instructions are presented for RAFT, a FORTRAN computer code for calculation of a risk measure for fault tree cut sets. RAFT calculates release quantities and a risk measure based on the product of probability and release quantity for cut sets of fault trees modeling the accidental release of radioactive material from a nuclear fuel cycle facility. Cut sets and their probabilities are supplied as input to RAFT from an external fault tree analysis code. Using the total inventory available of radioactive material, along with release fractions for each event in a cut set, the release terms are calculated for each cut set. Each release term is multiplied by the cut set probability to yield the cut set risk measure. RAFT orders the dominant cut sets on the risk measure. The total risk measure of processed cut sets and their fractional contributions are supplied as output. Input options are available to eliminate redundant cut sets, apply threshold values on cut set probability and risk, and control the total number of cut sets output. Hash addressing is used to remove redundant cut sets from the analysis. Computer hardware and software restrictions are given along with a sample problem and cross-reference table of the code. Except for the use of file management utilities, RAFT is written exclusively in FORTRAN language and is operational on a Control Data, CYBER 74-18--series computer system. 4 figures

  6. Modular techniques for dynamic fault-tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Dugan, Joanne B.

    1992-01-01

    It is noted that current approaches used to assess the dependability of complex systems such as Space Station Freedom and the Air Traffic Control System are incapable of handling the size and complexity of these highly integrated designs. A novel technique for modeling such systems which is built upon current techniques in Markov theory and combinatorial analysis is described. It enables the development of a hierarchical representation of system behavior which is more flexible than either technique alone. A solution strategy which is based on an object-oriented approach to model representation and evaluation is discussed. The technique is virtually transparent to the user since the fault tree models can be built graphically and the objects defined automatically. The tree modularization procedure allows the two model types, Markov and combinatoric, to coexist and does not require that the entire fault tree be translated to a Markov chain for evaluation. This effectively reduces the size of the Markov chain required and enables solutions with less truncation, making analysis of longer mission times possible. Using the fault-tolerant parallel processor as an example, a model is built and solved for a specific mission scenario and the solution approach is illustrated in detail.

  7. Generalized fault tree analysis combined with state analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1980-02-01

    An analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurrence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (two or more than two states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of boolean algebra is required. This is called 'boolean algebra with restrictions on variables' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. It is also shown that the boolean algebra with restrictions on variables facilitates the task of formally combining fault tree analysis with state analysis. The computer program MUSTAFA 1 based on the above theory has been developed. It can analyse fault trees of system containing statistically independent as well as dependent components with two or more than two states. MUSTAFA 1 can handle coherent as well as non coherent boolean functions. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MB [de

  8. A fast BDD algorithm for large coherent fault trees analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik; Han, Sang Hoon; Ha, Jaejoo

    2004-01-01

    Although a binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm has been tried to solve large fault trees until quite recently, they are not efficiently solved in a short time since the size of a BDD structure exponentially increases according to the number of variables. Furthermore, the truncation of If-Then-Else (ITE) connectives by the probability or size limit and the subsuming to delete subsets could not be directly applied to the intermediate BDD structure under construction. This is the motivation for this work. This paper presents an efficient BDD algorithm for large coherent systems (coherent BDD algorithm) by which the truncation and subsuming could be performed in the progress of the construction of the BDD structure. A set of new formulae developed in this study for AND or OR operation between two ITE connectives of a coherent system makes it possible to delete subsets and truncate ITE connectives with a probability or size limit in the intermediate BDD structure under construction. By means of the truncation and subsuming in every step of the calculation, large fault trees for coherent systems (coherent fault trees) are efficiently solved in a short time using less memory. Furthermore, the coherent BDD algorithm from the aspect of the size of a BDD structure is much less sensitive to variable ordering than the conventional BDD algorithm

  9. SOFT TREE: Fault Tree Technique as Applied to Software. Revision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-10-01

    13 12 - 16 03 - 18 09 - 19 01 - 19 02 - 19 03 - 19 05 18. Con’t Non- Nuclear Munition, Non- Nuclear Munition Safety, Fuze Safety, Microprocessor...costucin the’ V’Y wvSoft Tree be ver fam-’il~. iar-a’--. that te persnns conihhsutnge thoftd refec be very familia wthipeetino microprocessosor atd idotwee h...ro 7- qSf" fart~b -To WA0 IFu t TOC6Lf e aF ’t9 q-EN rNz Al fC1~ATOk -1- 1AP6AG $ LA ? To.~ Yujiif’ ToA4. IWOv~:EAii CI~t~J~13Lf ToP5M A~E F CAP Avrif

  10. Fault diagnostics of dynamic system operation using a fault tree based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurdle, E.E.; Bartlett, L.M.; Andrews, J.D.

    2009-01-01

    For conventional systems, their availability can be considerably improved by reducing the time taken to restore the system to the working state when faults occur. Fault identification can be a significant proportion of the time taken in the repair process. Having diagnosed the problem the restoration of the system back to its fully functioning condition can then take place. This paper expands the capability of previous approaches to fault detection and identification using fault trees for application to dynamically changing systems. The technique has two phases. The first phase is modelling and preparation carried out offline. This gathers information on the effects that sub-system failure will have on the system performance. Causes of the sub-system failures are developed in the form of fault trees. The second phase is application. Sensors are installed on the system to provide information about current system performance from which the potential causes can be deduced. A simple system example is used to demonstrate the features of the method. To illustrate the potential for the method to deal with additional system complexity and redundancy, a section from an aircraft fuel system is used. A discussion of the results is provided.

  11. Transposing an active fault database into a fault-based seismic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities - Part 2: Impact of fault parameter uncertainties on a site-specific PSHA exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben, eastern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Clément, Christophe; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane

    2017-09-01

    We perform a fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben to quantify the relative influence of fault parameters on the hazard at the Fessenheim nuclear power plant site. Specifically, we show that the potentially active faults described in the companion paper (Jomard et al., 2017, hereafter Part 1) are the dominant factor in hazard estimates at the low annual probability of exceedance relevant for the safety assessment of nuclear installations. Geological information documenting the activity of the faults in this region, however, remains sparse, controversial and affected by a high degree of uncertainty. A logic tree approach is thus implemented to explore the epistemic uncertainty and quantify its impact on the seismic hazard estimates. Disaggregation of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard at a 10 000-year return period shows that the Rhine River fault is the main seismic source controlling the hazard level at the site. Sensitivity tests show that the uncertainty on the slip rate of the Rhine River fault is the dominant factor controlling the variability of the seismic hazard level, greater than the epistemic uncertainty due to ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Uncertainty on slip rate estimates from 0.04 to 0.1 mm yr-1 results in a 40 to 50 % increase in hazard levels at the 10 000-year target return period. Reducing epistemic uncertainty in future fault-based PSHA studies at this site will thus require (1) performing in-depth field studies to better characterize the seismic potential of the Rhine River fault; (2) complementing GMPEs with more physics-based modelling approaches to better account for the near-field effects of ground motion and (3) improving the modelling of the background seismicity. Indeed, in this exercise, we assume that background earthquakes can only host M 6. 0 earthquakes have been recently identified at depth within the Upper Rhine Graben (see Part 1) but are not accounted

  12. Efficient reduction and modularization for large fault trees stored by pages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shanqi; Wang, Jin; Wang, Jiaqun; Wang, Fang; Hu, Liqin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New fault tree pre-processing methods used in RiskA are presented. • Including the fault tree paging storage, simplification and modularization. • For getting MCS for fault trees containing more than 10,000 gates and events. • Reduce computer resources needs (RAM) and improve computation speed. - Abstract: Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), an indispensable tool used in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), has been used throughout the commercial nuclear power industry for safety and reliability analyses. However, large fault tree analysis, such as those used in nuclear power plant requires significant computer resources, which makes the analysis of PRA model inefficient and time consuming. This paper describes a fault tree pre-processing method used in the reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA that is capable of generating minimal cutsets for fault trees containing more than 10,000 gates and basic events. The novel feature of this method is not only that Boolean reduction rules are used but also that a new objective of simplification is proposed. Moreover, since the method aims to find more fault tree modules by the linear-time algorithm, it can optimize fault tree modularization, which further reduces the computational time of large fault tree analysis.

  13. Plotting and analysis of fault trees in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, A.

    1979-12-01

    Fault tree analysis is a useful tool in determining the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants. The main strength of the fault tree method, its ability to detect cross-links between systems, can be used only if fault trees are constructed for complete nuclear generating stations. Such trees are large and have to be handled by computers. A system is described for handling fault trees using small computers such as the HP-1000 with disc drive, graphics terminal and x-y plotter

  14. New algorithm to detect modules in a fault tree for a PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik

    2015-01-01

    A module or independent subtree is a part of a fault tree whose child gates or basic events are not repeated in the remaining part of the fault tree. Modules are necessarily employed in order to reduce the computational costs of fault tree quantification. This paper presents a new linear time algorithm to detect modules of large fault trees. The size of cut sets can be substantially reduced by replacing independent subtrees in a fault tree with super-components. Chatterjee and Birnbaum developed properties of modules, and demonstrated their use in the fault tree analysis. Locks expanded the concept of modules to non-coherent fault trees. Independent subtrees were manually identified while coding a fault tree for computer analysis. However, nowadays, the independent subtrees are automatically identified by the fault tree solver. A Dutuit and Rauzy (DR) algorithm to detect modules of a fault tree for coherent or non-coherent fault tree was proposed in 1996. It has been well known that this algorithm quickly detects modules since it is a linear time algorithm. The new algorithm minimizes computational memory and quickly detects modules. Furthermore, it can be easily implemented into industry fault tree solvers that are based on traditional Boolean algebra, binary decision diagrams (BDDs), or Zero-suppressed BDDs. The new algorithm employs only two scalar variables in Eqs. to that are volatile information. After finishing the traversal and module detection of each node, the volatile information is destroyed. Thus, the new algorithm does not employ any other additional computational memory and operations. It is recommended that this method be implemented into fault tree solvers for efficient probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants

  15. New algorithm to detect modules in a fault tree for a PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    A module or independent subtree is a part of a fault tree whose child gates or basic events are not repeated in the remaining part of the fault tree. Modules are necessarily employed in order to reduce the computational costs of fault tree quantification. This paper presents a new linear time algorithm to detect modules of large fault trees. The size of cut sets can be substantially reduced by replacing independent subtrees in a fault tree with super-components. Chatterjee and Birnbaum developed properties of modules, and demonstrated their use in the fault tree analysis. Locks expanded the concept of modules to non-coherent fault trees. Independent subtrees were manually identified while coding a fault tree for computer analysis. However, nowadays, the independent subtrees are automatically identified by the fault tree solver. A Dutuit and Rauzy (DR) algorithm to detect modules of a fault tree for coherent or non-coherent fault tree was proposed in 1996. It has been well known that this algorithm quickly detects modules since it is a linear time algorithm. The new algorithm minimizes computational memory and quickly detects modules. Furthermore, it can be easily implemented into industry fault tree solvers that are based on traditional Boolean algebra, binary decision diagrams (BDDs), or Zero-suppressed BDDs. The new algorithm employs only two scalar variables in Eqs. to that are volatile information. After finishing the traversal and module detection of each node, the volatile information is destroyed. Thus, the new algorithm does not employ any other additional computational memory and operations. It is recommended that this method be implemented into fault tree solvers for efficient probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants.

  16. Fault Mechanics and Post-seismic Deformation at Bam, SE Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimpenny, S. E.; Copley, A.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which aseismic deformation relaxes co-seismic stress changes on a fault zone is fundamental to assessing the future seismic hazard following any earthquake, and in understanding the mechanical behaviour of faults. We used models of stress-driven afterslip and visco-elastic relaxation, in conjunction with a dense time series of post-seismic InSAR measurements, to show that there has been minimal release of co-seismic stress changes through post-seismic deformation following the 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam earthquake. Our modelling indicates that the faults at Bam may remain predominantly locked, and that the co- plus inter-seismically accumulated elastic strain stored down-dip of the 2003 rupture patch may be released in a future Mw 6 earthquake. Modelling also suggests parts of the fault that experienced post-seismic creep between 2003-2009 overlapped with areas that also slipped co-seismically. Our observations and models also provide an opportunity to probe how aseismic fault slip leads to the growth of topography at Bam. We find that, for our modelled afterslip distribution to be consistent with forming the sharp step in the local topography at Bam over repeated earthquake cycles, and also to be consistent with the geodetic observations, requires either (1) far-field tectonic loading equivalent to a 2-10 MPa deviatoric stress acting across the fault system, which suggests it supports stresses 60-100 times less than classical views of static fault strength, or (2) that the fault surface has some form of mechanical anisotropy, potentially related to corrugations on the fault plane, that controls the sense of slip.

  17. Purires and Picagres faults and its relationship with the 1990 Puriscal seismic sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero, Walter; Rojas, Wilfredo

    2014-01-01

    The system of active faults in the region between the southern flank of the Montes del Aguacate and the northwest flank of the Talamanca mountain range was re-evaluated and defined in relation to the seismic activity that occurred between the end of March 1990 and the beginning of 1991. Aerial photographs of different scales of the Instituto Geografico Nacional de Costa Rica, aerial photographs of scale 1: 40000 of the TERRA project, of the Centro Nacional Geoambiental and infrared photos of scale 1: 40000 of the Mission CARTA 2003, of the Programa Nacional de Investigaciones Aerotransportadas y Sensores Remotos (PRIAS) were reviewed. Morphotectonic, structural and geological information related to the various faults was obtained with field work. A set of faults within the study area were determined with the neotectonic investigation. Several of these faults continue outside the zone both to the northwest within the Montes del Aguacate, and to the southeast to the NW foothills of the Cordillera de Talamanca. The superficial focus seismicity (<20 km), which occurred in the Puriscal area during 1990, was revised from previous studies, whose base information comes from the Red Sismologica Nacional (RSN, UCR-ICE). The relationship between the superficial seismic sequence and the defined faults was determined, allowing to conclude that the main seismic sources that originated the seismicity were the Purires and Picagres faults. A minor seismicity was related to the faults Jaris, Bajos de Jorco, Zapote and Junquillo [es

  18. PL-MOD: a computer code for modular fault tree analysis and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olmos, J.; Wolf, L.

    1978-01-01

    The computer code PL-MOD has been developed to implement the modular methodology to fault tree analysis. In the modular approach, fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all basic event inputs through a set of equations, each defining an independent modular event for the tree. The advantages of tree modularization lie in that it is a more compact representation than the minimal cut-set description and in that it is well suited for fault tree quantification because of its recursive form. In its present version, PL-MOD modularizes fault trees and evaluates top and intermediate event failure probabilities, as well as basic component and modular event importance measures, in a very efficient way. Thus, its execution time for the modularization and quantification of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using the computer code MOCUS

  19. Modularization of fault trees: a method to reduce the cost of analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, P.

    1975-01-01

    The problem of analyzing large fault trees is considered. The concept of the finest modular representation of a fault tree is introduced and an algorithm is presented for finding this representation. The algorithm will also identify trees which cannot be modularized. Applications of such modularizations are discussed

  20. Diagnosis of Constant Faults in Read-Once Contact Networks over Finite Bases using Decision Trees

    KAUST Repository

    Busbait, Monther I.

    2014-01-01

    We study the depth of decision trees for diagnosis of constant faults in read-once contact networks over finite bases. This includes diagnosis of 0-1 faults, 0 faults and 1 faults. For any finite basis, we prove a linear upper bound on the minimum

  1. Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wen Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944 exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault are short.

  2. Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marce...

  3. Inferring Fault Frictional and Reservoir Hydraulic Properties From Injection-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagalur-Mohan, Jayanth; Jha, Birendra; Wang, Zheng; Juanes, Ruben; Marzouk, Youssef

    2018-02-01

    Characterizing the rheological properties of faults and the evolution of fault friction during seismic slip are fundamental problems in geology and seismology. Recent increases in the frequency of induced earthquakes have intensified the need for robust methods to estimate fault properties. Here we present a novel approach for estimation of aquifer and fault properties, which combines coupled multiphysics simulation of injection-induced seismicity with adaptive surrogate-based Bayesian inversion. In a synthetic 2-D model, we use aquifer pressure, ground displacements, and fault slip measurements during fluid injection to estimate the dynamic fault friction, the critical slip distance, and the aquifer permeability. Our forward model allows us to observe nonmonotonic evolutions of shear traction and slip on the fault resulting from the interplay of several physical mechanisms, including injection-induced aquifer expansion, stress transfer along the fault, and slip-induced stress relaxation. This interplay provides the basis for a successful joint inversion of induced seismicity, yielding well-informed Bayesian posterior distributions of dynamic friction and critical slip. We uncover an inverse relationship between dynamic friction and critical slip distance, which is in agreement with the small dynamic friction and large critical slip reported during seismicity on mature faults.

  4. Recent advancements in fault tree methodology at Karlsruhe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.; Wickenhaeuser, A.

    1977-01-01

    A very fast analytical computer program for fault tree evaluation has already been developed at the German nuclear research center of Karlsruhe. This program can evaluate coherent systems assuming binary component states. Four different classes of components can be handled by the program: (1) unrepairable components, (2) repairable components with revealed faults, (3) repairable components with faults remaining unrevealed until next demand occurs and (4) repairable components with faults which are detected upon inspection. The program can perform also time dependent calculations. In particular the program can analyse systems characterized by two phases, one following the other in time (two time axis). A new computer program is also being developed. This computer program will be capable to analyse noncoherent systems with multistate components. The mathematical theory supporting the new program is described in the paper. In particular the algorithm for the identification of the prime implicants and the theory for the calculation of the occurrence probability and of the first occurrence probability of the TOP event are discussed

  5. Integrated system fault diagnostics utilising digraph and fault tree-based approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartlett, L.M.; Hurdle, E.E.; Kelly, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    With the growing intolerance to failures within systems, the issue of fault diagnosis has become ever prevalent. Information concerning these possible failures can help to minimise the disruption to the functionality of the system by allowing quick rectification. Traditional approaches to fault diagnosis within engineering systems have focused on sequential testing procedures and real-time mechanisms. Both methods have been predominantly limited to single fault causes. Latest approaches also consider the issue of multiple faults in reflection to the characteristics of modern day systems designed for high reliability. In addition, a diagnostic capability is required in real time and for changeable system functionality. This paper focuses on two approaches which have been developed to cater for the demands of diagnosis within current engineering systems, namely application of the fault tree analysis technique and the method of digraphs. Both use a comparative approach to consider differences between actual system behaviour and that expected. The procedural guidelines are discussed for each method, with an experimental aircraft fuel system used to test and demonstrate the features of the techniques. The effectiveness of the approaches is compared and their future potential highlighted

  6. Users' manual for fault tree analysis code: CUT-TD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio; Kiyota, Mikio.

    1992-06-01

    The CUT-TD code has been developed to find minimal cut sets for a given fault tree and to calculate the occurrence probability of its top event. This code uses an improved top-down algorithm which can enhance the efficiency in deriving minimal cut sets. The features in processing techniques incorporated into CUT-TD are as follows: (1) Consecutive OR gates or consecutive AND gates can be coalesced into a single gate. As a result, this processing directly produces cut sets for the redefined single gate with each gate not being developed. (2) The independent subtrees are automatically identified and their respective cut sets are separately found to enhance the efficiency in processing. (3) The minimal cut sets can be obtained for the top event of a fault tree by combining their respective minimal cut sets for several gates of the fault tree. (4) The user can reduce the computing time for finding minimal cut sets and control the size and significance of cut sets by inputting a minimum probability cut off and/or a maximum order cut off. (5) The user can select events that need not to be further developed in the process of obtaining minimal cut sets. This option can reduce the number of minimal cut sets, save the computing time and assists the user in reviewing the result. (6) Computing time is monitored by the CUT-TD code so that it can prevent the running job from abnormally ending due to excessive CPU time and produce an intermediate result. The CUT-TD code has the ability to restart the calculation with use of the intermediate result. This report provides a users' manual for the CUT-TD code. (author)

  7. Simulation of Co-Seismic Off-Fault Stress Effects: Influence of Fault Roughness and Pore Pressure Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fälth, B.; Lund, B.; Hökmark, H.

    2017-12-01

    Aiming at improved safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories, we use dynamic 3D earthquake simulations to estimate the potential for co-seismic off-fault distributed fracture slip. Our model comprises a 12.5 x 8.5 km strike-slip fault embedded in a full space continuum where we apply a homogeneous initial stress field. In the reference case (Case 1) the fault is planar and oriented optimally for slip, given the assumed stress field. To examine the potential impact of fault roughness, we also study cases where the fault surface has undulations with self-similar fractal properties. In both the planar and the undulated cases the fault has homogeneous frictional properties. In a set of ten rough fault models (Case 2), the fault friction is equal to that of Case 1, meaning that these models generate lower seismic moments than Case 1. In another set of ten rough fault models (Case 3), the fault dynamic friction is adjusted such that seismic moments on par with that of Case 1 are generated. For the propagation of the earthquake rupture we adopt the linear slip-weakening law and obtain Mw 6.4 in Case 1 and Case 3, and Mw 6.3 in Case 2 (35 % lower moment than Case 1). During rupture we monitor the off-fault stress evolution along the fault plane at 250 m distance and calculate the corresponding evolution of the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) on optimally oriented hypothetical fracture planes. For the stress-pore pressure coupling, we assume Skempton's coefficient B = 0.5 as a base case value, but also examine the sensitivity to variations of B. We observe the following: (I) The CFS values, and thus the potential for fracture slip, tend to increase with the distance from the hypocenter. This is in accordance with results by other authors. (II) The highest CFS values are generated by quasi-static stress concentrations around fault edges and around large scale fault bends, where we obtain values of the order of 10 MPa. (III) Locally, fault roughness may have a

  8. Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.

    2005-01-01

    In this article, we show how fault tree analysis, carried out by means of binary decision diagrams (BDD), is able to approximate reliability of systems made of independent repairable components with a good accuracy and a good efficiency. We consider four algorithms: the Murchland lower bound, the Barlow-Proschan lower bound, the Vesely full approximation and the Vesely asymptotic approximation. For each of these algorithms, we consider an implementation based on the classical minimal cut sets/rare events approach and another one relying on the BDD technology. We present numerical results obtained with both approaches on various examples

  9. Waste Management Fault Tree Data Bank (WM): 1992 status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.; Townsend, C.S.

    1993-01-01

    The Risk Assessment Methodology Group (RAM) of the Nuclear Process Safety Research Section (NPSR) maintains a compilation of incidents that have occurred in the Waste Management facilities. The Waste Management Fault Tree Data Bank (WM) contains more than 35,000 entries ranging from minor equipment malfunctions to incidents with significant potential for injury or contamination of personnel. This report documents the status of the WM data bank including: availability, training, source of data, search options, and usage, to which these data have been applied. Periodic updates to this memorandum are planned as additional data or applications are acquired

  10. Algorithm for finding minimal cut sets in a fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Ladislav

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents several algorithms that have been used in a computer code for fault-tree analysing by the minimal cut sets method. The main algorithm is the more efficient version of the new CARA algorithm, which finds minimal cut sets with an auxiliary dynamical structure. The presented algorithm for finding the minimal cut sets enables one to do so by defined requirements - according to the order of minimal cut sets, or to the number of minimal cut sets, or both. This algorithm is from three to six times faster when compared with the primary version of the CARA algorithm

  11. A computer-oriented approach to fault-tree construction. Topical report No. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, B.B.

    1976-11-01

    Fault Tree Analysis is one of the major tools for the safety and reliability analysis of large systems. A methodology for systematically constructing fault trees for general complex systems is developed and applied, via the computer program CAT, to several systems. First, a means of representing component behavior by decision tables is presented. In order to use these tables, a procedure for constructing and editing fault trees, either manually or by computer, is described. In order to verify the methodology the computer program CAT has been developed and used to construct fault trees for two systems

  12. Effect of fault roughness on aftershock distribution and post co-seismic strain accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, K.; Daub, E. G.

    2017-12-01

    We perform physics-based simulations of earthquake rupture propagation on geometrically complex strike-slip faults. We consider many different realization of the fault roughness and obtain heterogeneous stress fields by performing dynamic rupture simulation of large earthquakes. We calculate the Coulomb failure function (CFF) for all these realizations so that we can quantify zones of stress increase/shadows surrounding the main fault and compare our results to seismic catalogs. To do this comparison, we use relocated earthquake catalogs from Northern and Southern California. We specify the range of fault roughness parameters based on past observational studies. The Hurst exponent (H) varies in range from 0.5 to 1 and RMS height to wavelength ratio ( RMS deviation of a fault profile from planarity) has values between 10-2 to 10-3. For any realization of fault roughness, the Probability density function (PDF) values relative to the mean CFF change show a wider spread near the fault and this spread squeezes into a narrow band as we move away from fault. For lower value of RMS ratio ( 10-3), we see bigger zones of stress change near the hypocenter and for higher value of RMS ratio ( 10-2), we see alternate zones of stress increase/decrease surrounding the fault to have comparable lengths. We also couple short-term dynamic rupture simulation with long-term tectonic modelling. We do this by giving the stress output from one of the dynamic rupture simulation (of a single realization of fault roughness) to long term tectonic model (LTM) as initial condition and then run LTM over duration of seismic cycle. This short term and long term coupling enables us to understand how heterogeneous stresses due to fault geometry influence the dynamics of strain accumulation in the post-seismic and inter-seismic phase of seismic cycle.

  13. Active intra-basin faulting in the Northern Basin of Lake Malawi from seismic reflection data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shillington, D. J.; Chindandali, P. R. N.; Scholz, C. A.; Ebinger, C. J.; Onyango, E. A.; Peterson, K.; Gaherty, J. B.; Nyblade, A.; Accardo, N. J.; McCartney, T.; Oliva, S. J.; Kamihanda, G.; Ferdinand, R.; Salima, J.; Mruma, A. H.

    2016-12-01

    Many questions remain about the development and evolution of fault systems in weakly extended rifts, including the relative roles of border faults and intra-basin faults, and segmentation at various scales. The northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa) rift in the East African Rift System is an early stage rift exhibiting pronounced tectonic segmentation, which is defined by 100-km-long border faults. The basins also contain a series of intrabasinal faults and associated synrift sediments. The occurrence of the 2009 Karonga Earthquake Sequence on one of these intrabasinal faults indicates that some of them are active. Here we present new multichannel seismic reflection data from the Northern Basin of the Malawi Rift collected in 2015 as a part of the SEGMeNT (Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) project. This rift basin is bound on its east side by the west-dipping Livingstone border fault. Over 650 km of seismic reflection profiles were acquired in the Northern Basin using a 500 to 1540 cu in air gun array and a 1200- to 1500-m seismic streamer. Dip lines image a series of north-south oriented west-dipping intra-basin faults and basement reflections up to 5 s twtt near the border fault. Cumulative offsets on intra-basin faults decrease to the west. The largest intra-basin fault has a vertical displacement of >2 s two-way travel time, indicating that it has accommodated significant total extension. Some of these intra-basin faults offset the lake bottom and the youngest sediments by up to 50 s twtt ( 37 m), demonstrating they are still active. The two largest intra-basin faults exhibit the largest offsets of young sediments and also correspond to the area of highest seismicity based on analysis of seismic data from the 89-station SEGMeNT onshore/offshore network (see Peterson et al, this session). Fault patterns in MCS profiles vary along the basin, suggesting a smaller scale of segmentation of faults within the basin; these variations in fault patterns

  14. Use of fault and decision tree analyses to protect against industrial sabotage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Erdmann, R.C.

    1975-01-01

    Fault tree and decision tree analyses provide systematic bases for evaluation of safety systems and procedures. Heuristically, this paper shows applications of these methods for industrial sabotage analysis at a reprocessing plant. Fault trees constructed by ''leak path'' analysis for completeness through path inventory. The escape fault tree is readily developed by this method and using the reciprocal character of the trees, the attack fault tree is constructed. After construction, the events on the fault tree are corrected for their nonreciprocal character. The fault trees are algebraically solved and the protection that is afforded is ranked by the number of barriers that must be penetrated. No attempt is made to assess the barrier penetration probabilities or penetration time duration. Event trees are useful for dynamic plant protection analysis through their time-sequencing character. To illustrate their usefulness, a simple attack scenario is devised and event-tree analyzed. Two saboteur success paths and 21 failure paths are found. This example clearly shows the event tree usefulness for concisely presenting the time sequencing of key decision points. However, event trees have the disadvantage of being scenario dependent, therefore requiring a separate event tree for each scenario

  15. A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

    2006-01-01

    South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

  16. Application of subset simulation methods to dynamic fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Mengyun; Liu Jingquan; She Ding

    2015-01-01

    Although fault tree analysis has been implemented in the nuclear safety field over the past few decades, it was recently criticized for the inability to model the time-dependent behaviors. Several methods are proposed to overcome this disadvantage, and dynamic fault tree (DFT) has become one of the research highlights. By introducing additional dynamic gates, DFT is able to describe the dynamic behaviors like the replacement of spare components or the priority of failure events. Using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach to solve DFT has obtained rising attention, because it can model the authentic behaviors of systems and avoid the limitations in the analytical method. In this paper, it provides an overview and MCS information for DFT analysis, including the sampling of basic events and the propagation rule for logic gates. When calculating rare-event probability, large amount of simulations in standard MCS are required. To improve the weakness, subset simulation (SS) approach is applied. Using the concept of conditional probability and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, the SS method is able to accelerate the efficiency of exploring the failure region. Two cases are tested to illustrate the performance of SS approach, and the numerical results suggest that it gives high efficiency when calculating complicated systems with small failure probabilities. (author)

  17. Quantile arithmetic methodology for uncertainty propagation in fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelhai, M.; Ragheb, M.

    1986-01-01

    A methodology based on quantile arithmetic, the probabilistic analog to interval analysis, is proposed for the computation of uncertainties propagation in fault tree analysis. The basic events' continuous probability density functions (pdf's) are represented by equivalent discrete distributions by dividing them into a number of quantiles N. Quantile arithmetic is then used to performthe binary arithmetical operations corresponding to the logical gates in the Boolean expression of the top event expression of a given fault tree. The computational advantage of the present methodology as compared with the widely used Monte Carlo method was demonstrated for the cases of summation of M normal variables through the efficiency ratio defined as the product of the labor and error ratios. The efficiency ratio values obtained by the suggested methodology for M = 2 were 2279 for N = 5, 445 for N = 25, and 66 for N = 45 when compared with the results for 19,200 Monte Carlo samples at the 40th percentile point. Another advantage of the approach is that the exact analytical value of the median is always obtained for the top event

  18. TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomadsen, B. [University of Wisconsin (United States)

    2016-06-15

    This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.

  19. TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomadsen, B.

    2016-01-01

    This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.

  20. Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.

    2014-12-01

    Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available

  1. Seismic fragility analysis of a CANDU containment structure for near-fault ground motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In Kil; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon; Ahn, Seong Moon

    2005-01-01

    The R. G. 1.60 spectrum used for the seismic design of Korean nuclear power plants provides a generally conservative design basis due to its broadband nature. A survey on some of the Quaternary fault segments near Korean nuclear power plants is ongoing. It is likely that these faults will be identified as active ones. If the faults are confirmed as active ones, it will be necessary to reevaluate the seismic safety of the nuclear power plants located near these faults. The probability based scenario earthquakes were identified as near-field earthquakes. In general, the near-fault ground motion records exhibit a distinctive long period pulse like time history with very high peak velocities. These features are induced by the slip of the earthquake fault. Near-fault ground motions, which have caused much of the damage in recent major earthquakes, can be characterized by a pulse-like motion that exposes the structure to a high input energy at the beginning of the motion. It is necessary to estimate the near-fault ground motion effects on the nuclear power plant structures and components located near the faults. In this study, the seismic fragility analysis of a CANDU containment structure was performed based on the results of nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses

  2. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: Considering an Active Leech River Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukovica, J.; Molnar, S.; Ghofrani, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Leech River fault is situated on Vancouver Island near the city of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The 60km transpressional reverse fault zone runs east to west along the southern tip of Vancouver Island, dividing the lithologic units of Jurassic-Cretaceous Leech River Complex schists to the north and Eocene Metchosin Formation basalts to the south. This fault system poses a considerable hazard due to its proximity to Victoria and 3 major hydroelectric dams. The Canadian seismic hazard model for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) considered the fault system to be inactive. However, recent paleoseismic evidence suggests there to be at least 2 surface-rupturing events to have exceeded a moment magnitude (M) of 6.5 within the last 15,000 years (Morell et al. 2017). We perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for the city of Victoria with consideration of the Leech River fault as an active source. A PSHA for Victoria which replicates the 2015 NBCC estimates is accomplished to calibrate our PSHA procedure. The same seismic source zones, magnitude recurrence parameters, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are used. We replicate the uniform hazard spectrum for a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years for a 500 km radial area around Victoria. An active Leech River fault zone is then added; known length and dip. We are determining magnitude recurrence parameters based on a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for the Leech River fault from various catalogues of the recorded seismicity (M 2-3) within the fault's vicinity and the proposed paleoseismic events. We seek to understand whether inclusion of an active Leech River fault source will significantly increase the probabilistic seismic hazard for Victoria. Morell et al. 2017. Quaternary rupture of a crustal fault beneath Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. GSA Today, 27, doi: 10.1130/GSATG291A.1

  3. Uncertainties related to the fault tree reliability data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, Minodora; Nitoi, Mirela; Farcasiu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty analyses related to the fault trees evaluate the system variability which appears from the uncertainties of the basic events probabilities. Having a logical model which describes a system, to obtain outcomes means to evaluate it, using estimations for each basic event of the model. If the model has basic events that incorporate uncertainties, then the results of the model should incorporate the uncertainties of the events. Uncertainties estimation in the final result of the fault tree means first the uncertainties evaluation for the basic event probabilities and then combination of these uncertainties, to calculate the top event uncertainty. To calculate the propagating uncertainty, a knowledge of the probability density function as well as the range of possible values of the basic event probabilities is required. The following data are defined, using suitable probability density function: the components failure rates; the human error probabilities; the initiating event frequencies. It was supposed that the possible value distribution of the basic event probabilities is given by the lognormal probability density function. To know the range of possible value of the basic event probabilities, the error factor or the uncertainty factor is required. The aim of this paper is to estimate the error factor for the failure rates and for the human errors probabilities from the reliability data base used in Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. The top event chosen as an example is FEED3, from the Pressure and Inventory Control System. The quantitative evaluation of this top event was made by using EDFT code, developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti (INR). It was supposed that the error factors for the component failures are the same as for the failure rates. Uncertainty analysis was made with INCERT application, which uses the moment method and Monte Carlo method. The reliability data base used at INR Pitesti does not contain the error factors (ef

  4. An enhanced component connection method for conversion of fault trees to binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remenyte-Prescott, R.; Andrews, J.D.

    2008-01-01

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is widely applied to assess the failure probability of industrial systems. Many computer packages are available, which are based on conventional kinetic tree theory methods. When dealing with large (possibly non-coherent) fault trees, the limitations of the technique in terms of accuracy of the solutions and the efficiency of the processing time become apparent. Over recent years, the binary decision diagram (BDD) method has been developed that solves fault trees and overcomes the disadvantages of the conventional FTA approach. First of all, a fault tree for a particular system failure mode is constructed and then converted to a BDD for analysis. This paper analyses alternative methods for the fault tree to BDD conversion process. For most fault tree to BDD conversion approaches, the basic events of the fault tree are placed in an ordering. This can dramatically affect the size of the final BDD and the success of qualitative and quantitative analyses of the system. A set of rules is then applied to each gate in the fault tree to generate the BDD. An alternative approach can also be used, where BDD constructs for each of the gate types are first built and then merged to represent a parent gate. A powerful and efficient property, sub-node sharing, is also incorporated in the enhanced method proposed in this paper. Finally, a combined approach is developed taking the best features of the alternative methods. The efficiency of the techniques is analysed and discussed

  5. Comparison of event tree, fault tree and Markov methods for probabilistic safety assessment and application to accident mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, H.; Harris, M.J.; Hall, S.F.

    1992-01-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is used extensively in the nuclear industry. The main stages of PSA and the traditional event tree method are described. Focussing on hydrogen explosions, an event tree model is compared to a novel Markov model and a fault tree, and unexpected implication for accident mitigation is revealed. (author)

  6. Ultra-thin clay layers facilitate seismic slip in carbonate faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeraglia, Luca; Billi, Andrea; Carminati, Eugenio; Cavallo, Andrea; Di Toro, Giulio; Spagnuolo, Elena; Zorzi, Federico

    2017-04-06

    Many earthquakes propagate up to the Earth's surface producing surface ruptures. Seismic slip propagation is facilitated by along-fault low dynamic frictional resistance, which is controlled by a number of physico-chemical lubrication mechanisms. In particular, rotary shear experiments conducted at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ) show that phyllosilicates can facilitate co-seismic slip along faults during earthquakes. This evidence is crucial for hazard assessment along oceanic subduction zones, where pelagic clays participate in seismic slip propagation. Conversely, the reason why, in continental domains, co-seismic slip along faults can propagate up to the Earth's surface is still poorly understood. We document the occurrence of micrometer-thick phyllosilicate-bearing layers along a carbonate-hosted seismogenic extensional fault in the central Apennines, Italy. Using friction experiments, we demonstrate that, at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ), similar calcite gouges with pre-existing phyllosilicate-bearing (clay content ≤3 wt.%) micro-layers weaken faster than calcite gouges or mixed calcite-phyllosilicate gouges. We thus propose that, within calcite gouge, ultra-low clay content (≤3 wt.%) localized along micrometer-thick layers can facilitate seismic slip propagation during earthquakes in continental domains, possibly enhancing surface displacement.

  7. Implications of Seismically Active Fault Structures in Ankay and Alaotra Regions of Northern and Central Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, S.; Stamps, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of the study is to gain a better understanding of the seismically active fault structures in central and northern Madagascar. We study the Ankay and Lake Alaotra regions of Madagascar, which are segmented by multiple faults that strike N-S. In general, normal seismic events occur on faults bounding the Alaotra-Ankay rift basin where Quaternary alluvium is present. Due to this pattern and moderate amounts of low magnitude seismic activity along these faults, it is hypothesized the region currently undergoes E-W extension. In this work we test how variations in fault strength and net slip changes influence expected crustal movement in the region. Using the Coulomb stress failure point as a test of strength we are able to model the Alaotra-Ankay region using MATLAB Coulomb 3.3.01. This program allows us to define realistic Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus of mapped rock compositions in the region, i.e. paragneiss and orthogneiss, create 3D fault geometries, and calculate static stress changes with coinciding surface displacements. We impose slip along multiple faults and calculate seismic moment that we balance by the 3 observed earthquake magnitudes available in the USGS CMT database. Our calculations of surface displacements indicate 1-3 millimeters could be observed across the Alaotra-Ankay rift. These values are within the observable range of precision GNSS observations, therefore our results will guide future research into the area and direct potential GNSS station installation.

  8. Quantitative analysis of a fault tree with priority AND gates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuge, T.; Yanagi, S.

    2008-01-01

    A method for calculating the exact top event probability of a fault tree with priority AND gates and repeated basic events is proposed when the minimal cut sets are given. A priority AND gate is an AND gate where the input events must occur in a prescribed order for the occurrence of the output event. It is known that the top event probability of such a dynamic fault tree is obtained by converting the tree into an equivalent Markov model. However, this method is not realistic for a complex system model because the number of states which should be considered in the Markov analysis increases explosively as the number of basic events increases. To overcome the shortcomings of the Markov model, we propose an alternative method to obtain the top event probability in this paper. We assume that the basic events occur independently, exponentially distributed, and the component whose failure corresponds to the occurrence of the basic event is non-repairable. First, we obtain the probability of occurrence of the output event of a single priority AND gate by Markov analysis. Then, the top event probability is given by a cut set approach and the inclusion-exclusion formula. An efficient procedure to obtain the probabilities corresponding to logical products in the inclusion-exclusion formula is proposed. The logical product which is composed of two or more priority AND gates having at least one common basic event as their inputs is transformed into the sum of disjoint events which are equivalent to a priority AND gate in the procedure. Numerical examples show that our method works well for complex systems

  9. A new methodology for the computer-aided construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, S.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1977-01-01

    A methodology for systematically constructing fault trees for general complex systems is developed. A means of modeling component behaviour via decision tables is presented, and a procedure, and a procedure for constructing and editing fault trees, either manually or by computer, is developed. The techniques employed result in a complete fault tree in standard form. In order to demonstrate the methodology, the computer program CAT was developed and is used to construct trees for a nuclear system. By analyzing and comparing these fault trees, several conclusions are reached. First, such an approach can be used to produce fault trees that accurately describe system behaviour. Second, multiple trees can be rapidly produced by defining various TOP events, including system success. Finally, the accuracy and utility of such trees is shown to depend upon the careful development of the decision table models by the analyst, and of the overall system definition itself. Thus the method is seen to be a tool for assisting in the work of fault tree construction rather than a replacement for the careful work of the fault tree analyst. (author)

  10. Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA): A new method for improved fault tree analysis (FTA), reliability and safety calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shalev, Dan M.; Tiran, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Condition-based maintenance methods have changed systems reliability in general and individual systems in particular. Yet, this change does not affect system reliability analysis. System fault tree analysis (FTA) is performed during the design phase. It uses components failure rates derived from available sources as handbooks, etc. Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA) starts with the known FTA. Condition monitoring (CM) methods applied to systems (e.g. vibration analysis, oil analysis, electric current analysis, bearing CM, electric motor CM, and so forth) are used to determine updated failure rate values of sensitive components. The CBFTA method accepts updated failure rates and applies them to the FTA. The CBFTA recalculates periodically the top event (TE) failure rate (λ TE ) thus determining the probability of system failure and the probability of successful system operation-i.e. the system's reliability. FTA is a tool for enhancing system reliability during the design stages. But, it has disadvantages, mainly it does not relate to a specific system undergoing maintenance. CBFTA is tool for updating reliability values of a specific system and for calculating the residual life according to the system's monitored conditions. Using CBFTA, the original FTA is ameliorated to a practical tool for use during the system's field life phase, not just during system design phase. This paper describes the CBFTA method and its advantages are demonstrated by an example

  11. Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

    2015-12-01

    Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

  12. Steep-dip seismic imaging of the shallow San Andreas fault near Parkfield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hole, J A; Catchings, R D; St Clair, K C; Rymer, M J; Okaya, D A; Carney, B J

    2001-11-16

    Seismic reflection and refraction images illuminate the San Andreas Fault to a depth of 1 kilometer. The prestack depth-migrated reflection image contains near-vertical reflections aligned with the active fault trace. The fault is vertical in the upper 0.5 kilometer, then dips about 70 degrees to the southwest to at least 1 kilometer subsurface. This dip reconciles the difference between the computed locations of earthquakes and the surface fault trace. The seismic velocity cross section shows strong lateral variations. Relatively low velocity (10 to 30%), high electrical conductivity, and low density indicate a 1-kilometer-wide vertical wedge of porous sediment or fractured rock immediately southwest of the active fault trace.

  13. Magnetic enhancement and softening of fault gouges during seismic slip: Laboratory observation and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Chen, J.; Dekkers, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Anomalous rock magnetic properties have been reported in slip zones of many previous earthquakes (e.g., the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan; the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan, and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China). However, it is unclear whether short-duration frictional heating can actually induce such rock magnetic anomalies in fault zones; identification of this process in natural fault zones is not that straightforward. A promising approach to solve this problem is to conduct high-velocity friction (HVF) experiments that reproduce seismic fault movements and frictional heating in a simulated fault zone. Afterwards natural fault zones can be analyzed with renewed insight. Our HVF experiments on fault gouges that are simulating large amounts of earthquake slip, show significant magnetic enhancement and softening of sheared gouges. Mineral magnetic measurements reveal that magnetite was formed due to thermal decomposition of smectite during the HVF experiment on the paramagnetic fault gouge. Also, goethite was transformed to intermediate magnetite during the HVF experiment on the goethite-bearing fault gouge. Magnetic susceptibility, saturation remanence and saturation magnetization of sheared samples are linearly increasing with and strongly depend on the temperature rise induced by frictional heating; in contrast, coecivities are decreasing with increasing temperature. Thus, frictional heating can induce thermal decomposition/transformation during short-duration, high-velocity seismic slip, leading to magnetic enhancement and softening of a slip zone. Mineral magnetic methods are suited for diagnosing earthquake slip and estimating the temperature rise of co-seismic frictional heating.

  14. Systematic evaluation of fault trees using real-time model checker UPPAAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Sungdeok; Son, Hanseong; Yoo, Junbeom; Jee, Eunkyung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2003-01-01

    Fault tree analysis, the most widely used safety analysis technique in industry, is often applied manually. Although techniques such as cutset analysis or probabilistic analysis can be applied on the fault tree to derive further insights, they are inadequate in locating flaws when failure modes in fault tree nodes are incorrectly identified or when causal relationships among failure modes are inaccurately specified. In this paper, we demonstrate that model checking technique is a powerful tool that can formally validate the accuracy of fault trees. We used a real-time model checker UPPAAL because the system we used as the case study, nuclear power emergency shutdown software named Wolsong SDS2, has real-time requirements. By translating functional requirements written in SCR-style tabular notation into timed automata, two types of properties were verified: (1) if failure mode described in a fault tree node is consistent with the system's behavioral model; and (2) whether or not a fault tree node has been accurately decomposed. A group of domain engineers with detailed technical knowledge of Wolsong SDS2 and safety analysis techniques developed fault tree used in the case study. However, model checking technique detected subtle ambiguities present in the fault tree

  15. Groundwater penetrating radar and high resolution seismic for locating shallow faults in unconsolidated sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyatt, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    Faults in shallow, unconsolidated sediments, particularly in coastal plain settings, are very difficult to discern during subsurface exploration yet have critical impact to groundwater flow, contaminant transport and geotechnical evaluations. This paper presents a case study using cross-over geophysical technologies in an area where shallow faulting is probable and known contamination exists. A comparison is made between Wenner and dipole-dipole resistivity data, ground penetrating radar, and high resolution seismic data. Data from these methods were verified with a cone penetrometer investigation for subsurface lithology and compared to existing monitoring well data. Interpretations from these techniques are compared with actual and theoretical shallow faulting found in the literature. The results of this study suggests that (1) the CPT study, combined with the monitoring well data may suggest that discontinuities in correlatable zones may indicate that faulting is present (2) the addition of the Wenner and dipole-dipole data may further suggest that offset zones exist in the shallow subsurface but not allow specific fault planes or fault stranding to be mapped (3) the high resolution seismic data will image faults to within a few feet of the surface but does not have the resolution to identify the faulting on the scale of our models, however it will suggest locations for upward continuation of faulted zones (4) offset 100 MHz and 200 MHz CMP GPR will image zones and features that may be fault planes and strands similar to our models (5) 300 MHz GPR will image higher resolution features that may suggest the presence of deeper faults and strands, and (6) the combination of all of the tools in this study, particularly the GPR and seismic may allow for the mapping of small scale, shallow faulting in unconsolidated sediments

  16. TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunscombe, P.

    2015-01-01

    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  17. TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunscombe, P. [University of Calgary (Canada)

    2015-06-15

    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  18. The hydraulic structure of the Gole Larghe Fault Zone (Italian Southern Alps) through the seismic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bistacchi, A.; Mittempergher, S.; Di Toro, G.; Smith, S. A. F.; Garofalo, P. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 600 m-thick, strike slip Gole Larghe Fault Zone (GLFZ) experienced several hundred seismic slip events at c. 8 km depth, well-documented by numerous pseudotachylytes, was then exhumed and is now exposed in beautiful and very continuous outcrops. The fault zone was also characterized by hydrous fluid flow during the seismic cycle, demonstrated by alteration halos and precipitation of hydrothermal minerals in veins and cataclasites. We have characterized the GLFZ with > 2 km of scanlines and semi-automatic mapping of faults and fractures on several photogrammetric 3D Digital Outcrop Models (3D DOMs). This allowed us obtaining 3D Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models, based on robust probability density functions for parameters of fault and fracture sets, and simulating the fault zone hydraulic properties. In addition, the correlation between evidences of fluid flow and the fault/fracture network parameters have been studied with a geostatistical approach, allowing generating more realistic time-varying permeability models of the fault zone. Based on this dataset, we have developed a FEM hydraulic model of the GLFZ for a period of some tens of years, covering one seismic event and a postseismic period. The higher permeability is attained in the syn- to early post-seismic period, when fractures are (re)opened by off-fault deformation, then permeability decreases in the postseismic due to fracture sealing. The flow model yields a flow pattern consistent with the observed alteration/mineralization pattern and a marked channelling of fluid flow in the inner part of the fault zone, due to permeability anisotropy related to the spatial arrangement of different fracture sets. Amongst possible seismological applications of our study, we will discuss the possibility to evaluate the coseismic fracture intensity due to off-fault damage, and the heterogeneity and evolution of mechanical parameters due to fluid-rock interaction.

  19. Diagnosis of Constant Faults in Read-Once Contact Networks over Finite Bases using Decision Trees

    KAUST Repository

    Busbait, Monther I.

    2014-05-01

    We study the depth of decision trees for diagnosis of constant faults in read-once contact networks over finite bases. This includes diagnosis of 0-1 faults, 0 faults and 1 faults. For any finite basis, we prove a linear upper bound on the minimum depth of decision tree for diagnosis of constant faults depending on the number of edges in a contact network over that basis. Also, we obtain asymptotic bounds on the depth of decision trees for diagnosis of each type of constant faults depending on the number of edges in contact networks in the worst case per basis. We study the set of indecomposable contact networks with up to 10 edges and obtain sharp coefficients for the linear upper bound for diagnosis of constant faults in contact networks over bases of these indecomposable contact networks. We use a set of algorithms, including one that we create, to obtain the sharp coefficients.

  20. A look inside the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield through vertical seismic profiling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavarria, J Andres; Malin, Peter; Catchings, Rufus D; Shalev, Eylon

    2003-12-05

    The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole is located on the southwestern side of the Parkfield San Andreas fault. This observatory includes a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) array. VSP seismograms from nearby microearthquakes contain signals between the P and S waves. These signals may be P and S waves scattered by the local geologic structure. The collected scattering points form planar surfaces that we interpret as the San Andreas fault and four other secondary faults. The scattering process includes conversions between P and S waves, the strengths of which suggest large contrasts in material properties, possibly indicating the presence of cracks or fluids.

  1. A knowledge-based approach to the evaluation of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Yann-Jong; Chow, Louis R.; Huang, Henry C.

    1996-01-01

    A list of critical components is useful for determining the potential problems of a complex system. However, to find this list through evaluating the fault trees is expensive and time consuming. This paper intends to propose an integrated software program which consists of a fault tree constructor, a knowledge base, and an efficient algorithm for evaluating minimal cut sets of a large fault tree. The proposed algorithm uses the approaches of top-down heuristic searching and the probability-based truncation. That makes the evaluation of fault trees obviously efficient and provides critical components for solving the potential problems in complex systems. Finally, some practical fault trees are included to illustrate the results

  2. FTREX Testing Report (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) Version 1.5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik

    2009-07-01

    In order to verify FTREX functions and to confirm the correctness of FTREX 1.5, various tests were performed 1.fault trees with negates 2.fault trees with house events 3.fault trees with multiple tops 4.fault trees with logical loops 5.fault trees with initiators, house events, negates, logical loops, and flag events By using the automated cutest propagation test, the FTREX 1.5 functions are verified. FTREX version 1.3 and later versions have capability to perform bottom-up cutset-propagation test in order check cutest status. FTREX 1.5 always generates the proper minimal cut sets. All the output cutsets of the tested problems are MCSs (Minimal Cut Sets) and have no non-minimal cutsets and improper cutsets. The improper cutsets are those that have no effect to top, have multiple initiators, or have disjoint events A * -A

  3. Fault tree synthesis for software design analysis of PLC based safety-critical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, S. R.; Cho, C. H.; Seong, P. H.

    2006-01-01

    As a software verification and validation should be performed for the development of PLC based safety-critical systems, a software safety analysis is also considered in line with entire software life cycle. In this paper, we propose a technique of software safety analysis in the design phase. Among various software hazard analysis techniques, fault tree analysis is most widely used for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant systems. Fault tree analysis also has the most intuitive notation and makes both qualitative and quantitative analyses possible. To analyze the design phase more effectively, we propose a technique of fault tree synthesis, along with a universal fault tree template for the architecture modules of nuclear software. Consequently, we can analyze the safety of software on the basis of fault tree synthesis. (authors)

  4. Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qiang; Yang Ming

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)

  5. Microtremor survey to investigate seismic vulnerability around the Seulimum Fault, Aceh Besar-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanjuntak, Andrean V. H.; Muksin, Umar; Rahmayani, Febrina

    2018-05-01

    The Seulimeum Fault has generated inland earthquake with magnitude larger than M 6.5 that destroyed houses in the Lamteuba and Krueng Raya Villages. Earthquakes along the Seulimeum Fault are mostly right lateral strike-slip characterizing the Fault. The understanding of the seismic vulnerability around the highly populated Banda Aceh City and the villages in Aceh Besar is therefore very important since the city, and the villages are very close to the Seulimeum Fault. A microtremor survey has been conducted to investigate seismic vulnerability in the area closed to the Seulimeum Fault. The waveforms of the microtremor have been recorded in Lamteuba and Kreung Raya villages, Aceh Besar at 20 sites for 7 days from August 14, 2017 with the interval of measurement of 1 km. The waveforms recorded for 30 minutes at each site by using one Taurus Seismometer in miniseed format. The data has been analyzing by using Geopsy to obtain the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio for each site. The seismic vulnerability is considered to be high if the value of the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio is high. The HVSR values are then interpolated to obtain the seismic vulnerability map. The preliminary result shows high seismic vulnerability in the area around the first site.

  6. Relationships among seismic velocity, metamorphism, and seismic and aseismic fault slip in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field region

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Lohman, Rowena B.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Rymer, Michael J.; Goldman, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    The Salton Sea Geothermal Field is one of the most geothermally and seismically active areas in California and presents an opportunity to study the effect of high-temperature metamorphism on the properties of seismogenic faults. The area includes numerous active tectonic faults that have recently been imaged with active source seismic reflection and refraction. We utilize the active source surveys, along with the abundant microseismicity data from a dense borehole seismic network, to image the 3-D variations in seismic velocity in the upper 5 km of the crust. There are strong velocity variations, up to ~30%, that correlate spatially with the distribution of shallow heat flow patterns. The combination of hydrothermal circulation and high-temperature contact metamorphism has significantly altered the shallow sandstone sedimentary layers within the geothermal field to denser, more feldspathic, rock with higher P wave velocity, as is seen in the numerous exploration wells within the field. This alteration appears to have a first-order effect on the frictional stability of shallow faults. In 2005, a large earthquake swarm and deformation event occurred. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data and earthquake relocations indicates that the shallow aseismic fault creep that occurred in 2005 was localized on the Kalin fault system that lies just outside the region of high-temperature metamorphism. In contrast, the earthquake swarm, which includes all of the M > 4 earthquakes to have occurred within the Salton Sea Geothermal Field in the last 15 years, ruptured the Main Central Fault (MCF) system that is localized in the heart of the geothermal anomaly. The background microseismicity induced by the geothermal operations is also concentrated in the high-temperature regions in the vicinity of operational wells. However, while this microseismicity occurs over a few kilometer scale region, much of it is clustered in earthquake swarms that last from

  7. Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed along the 1976 Tangshan fault, north China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Le; Chen, Qi-Fu; Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin

    2007-12-01

    Spatial and temporal features of the seismicity occurring along the Tangshan fault in 2001-2006 were investigated with data recorded by the Beijing metropolitan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity with the double difference method clearly exhibits a dextral bend in the middle of the fault. More than 85% of the earthquakes were found in the two clusters forming the northern segment where relatively small coseismic slips were observed during the 1976 M7.8 earthquake. The b values calculated from the seismicity occurring in the northern and southern segment are 1.03 +/- 0.02 and 0.85 +/- 0.03, respectively. The distinct seismicity and b values are probably the collective effect of the fault geometry and the regional stress field that has an ENE-WSW oriented compression. Using cross-correlation and fine relocation analyses, we also identified a total of 21 doublets and 25 multiplets that make up >50% of the total seismicity. Most of the sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Based on a quasi-periodic sequence, we obtained a fault slip rate of <=2.6 mm/yr at ~15 km, which is consistent with surface GPS measurements.

  8. Discriminating between natural versus induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnani, Maria Beatrice; Blanpied, Michael L; DeShon, Heather R; Hornbach, Matthew J

    2017-11-01

    To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009, earthquake activity in the CUS has increased markedly, and numerous publications suggest that this increase is primarily due to induced earthquakes caused by deep-well injection of wastewater, both flowback water from hydrofracturing operations and produced water accompanying hydrocarbon production. Alternatively, some argue that these earthquakes are natural and that the seismicity increase is a normal variation that occurs over millions of years. Our analysis shows that within the NME, faults deform both Quaternary alluvium and underlying sediments dating from Paleozoic through Tertiary, with displacement increasing with geologic unit age, documenting a long history of natural activity. In the FWB, a region of ongoing wastewater injection, basement faults show deformation of the Proterozoic and Paleozoic units, but little or no deformation of younger strata. Specifically, vertical displacements in the post-Pennsylvanian formations, if any, are below the resolution (~15 m) of the seismic data, far less than expected had these faults accumulated deformation over millions of years. Our results support the assertion that recent FWB earthquakes are of induced origin; this conclusion is entirely independent of analyses correlating seismicity and wastewater injection practices. To our knowledge, this is the first study to discriminate natural and induced seismicity using classical structural geology analysis techniques.

  9. Fault tree analysis on BWR core spray system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    1982-06-01

    Fault Trees which describe the failure modes for the Core Spray System function in the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (BWR 1065MWe) were developed qualitatively and quantitatively. The unavailability for the Core Spray System was estimated to be 1.2 x 10 - 3 /demand. It was found that the miscalibration of four reactor pressure sensors or the failure to open of the two inboard valves (FCV 75-25 and 75-53) could reduce system reliability significantly. It was recommended that the pressure sensors would be calibrated independently. The introduction of the redundant inboard valves could improve the system reliability. Thus this analysis method was verified useful for system analysis. The detailed test and maintenance manual and the informations on the control logic circuits of each active component are necessary for further analysis. (author)

  10. Experience in PSA fault tree modularization at the ASCO NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nos Llorens, V.; Frances Urmeneta, M.; Fraig Sureda, J.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is a basic tool in decision-making for the optimization of back fittings, procedures and maintenance practices. ASCO NPP PSA was developed with a high level of detail in the models. This required considerable computer resources (long running time) to carry out the quantification. The quantification time had therefore to be flexible to allow continuous evaluation of the impact on the estimation and reduction of risk in the plant, and also to facilitate post-PSA applications. The most suitable way of achieving this flexibility was by compacting and reducing the detailed fault trees of the project by means of a modularization process. The purpose of the paper is to present the practical experience acquired with modularization carried out in the UTE UNITEC-INYPSA-EMPRESARIOS AGRUPADOS framework and the method applied, the support computer programs devised and their degree of effectiveness. (Author)

  11. Enterprise architecture availability analysis using fault trees and stakeholder interviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Närman, Per; Franke, Ulrik; König, Johan; Buschle, Markus; Ekstedt, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    The availability of enterprise information systems is a key concern for many organisations. This article describes a method for availability analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis and constructs from the ArchiMate enterprise architecture (EA) language. To test the quality of the method, several case-studies within the banking and electrical utility industries were performed. Input data were collected through stakeholder interviews. The results from the case studies were compared with availability of log data to determine the accuracy of the method's predictions. In the five cases where accurate log data were available, the yearly downtime estimates were within eight hours from the actual downtimes. The cost of performing the analysis was low; no case study required more than 20 man-hours of work, making the method ideal for practitioners with an interest in obtaining rapid availability estimates of their enterprise information systems.

  12. Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    1976-06-01

    The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

  13. Application of fault tree analysis to fuel cell diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousfi Steiner, N.; Mocoteguy, P. [European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Karlsruhe (Germany); Hissel, D. [FEMTO-ST/ENISYS/FC LAB, UMR CNRS 6174, University of Franche-Comte, Belfort (France); Candusso, D. [IFSTTAR/FC LAB, Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks, Belfort (France); Marra, D.; Pianese, C.; Sorrentino, M. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Salerno, Fisciano (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    Reliability and lifetime are common issues for the development and commercialization of fuel cells technologies'. As a consequence, their improvement is a major challenge and the last decade has experienced a growing interest in activities that aims at understanding the degradation mechanisms and at developing fuel cell systems diagnosis tools. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the deductive tools that allow ''linking'' an undesired state to a combination of lower-level events via a ''top-down'' approach which is mainly used in safety and reliability engineering. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the use and the contribution of FTA to both SOFC and PEFC diagnosis. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  14. Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Radiation on Rough Faults for Simulation-Based PSHA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, P. M.; Galis, M.; Thingbaijam, K. K. S.; Vyas, J. C.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Simulation-based ground-motion predictions may augment PSHA studies in data-poor regions or provide additional shaking estimations, incl. seismic waveforms, for critical facilities. Validation and calibration of such simulation approaches, based on observations and GMPE's, is important for engineering applications, while seismologists push to include the precise physics of the earthquake rupture process and seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous Earth. Geological faults comprise both large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness that determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process and its radiated seismic wavefield. We investigate how different parameterizations of fractal fault roughness affect the rupture evolution and resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence induced by fault roughness generates realistic ω-2 decay for high-frequency displacement amplitude spectra. Waveform characteristics and GMPE-based comparisons corroborate that these rough-fault rupture simulations generate realistic synthetic seismogram for subsequent engineering application. Since dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we develop kinematic approximations that emulate the observed dynamics. Simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. The dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with local dip angles. Based on a dynamically consistent Yoffe source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic rupture well reproduces the seismic radiation of the full dynamic source process. Our findings provide an innovative pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures fault roughness effects on rupture dynamics. Including the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we present a new

  15. Seismicity within the Irpinia Fault System As Monitored By Isnet (Irpinia Seismic Network) and Its Possible Relation with Fluid Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festa, G.; Zollo, A.; Amoroso, O.; Ascione, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Mazzoli, S.; Orefice, A.; Russo, G.

    2014-12-01

    ISNet (http://isnet.fisica.unina.it) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, M 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. ISNet consists of 32 seismic stations equipped with both strong motion and velocimetric instruments (either broadband or short-period), with the aim of capture a broad set of seismic signals, from ambient noise to strong motion. Real time and near real time procedures run at ISNet with the goal of monitoring the seismicity, check possible space-time anomalies, detect seismic sequences and launch an earthquake early warning in the case of potential significant ground shaking in the area. To understand the role of fluids on the seismicity of the area, we investigated velocity and attenuation models. The former is built from accurate cross-correlation picking and S wave detection based onto polarization analysis. Joint inversion of both P and S arrival times is then based on a linearized multi-scale tomographic approach. Attenuation is instead obtained from inversion of displacement spectra, deconvolving for the source effect. High VP/VS and QS/QP >1 were found within a ~15 km wide rock volume where intense microseismicity is located. This indicates that concentration of seismicity is possibly controlled by high pore fluid pressure. This earthquake reservoir may come from a positive feedback between the seismic pumping that controls the fluid transmission through the fractured damage zone and the low permeability of cross fault barrier, increasing the fluid pore pressure within the fault bounded block. In this picture, sequences mostly occur at the base of this fluid rich layer. They show an anomalous pattern in the earthquake occurrence per magnitude classes; main events evolve with a complex source kinematics, as obtained from backprojection of apparent source time functions, indicating possible directivity effects. In this area sequences might be the key for understanding the transition between the deep

  16. Hydrothermal fault zone mapping using seismic and electrical measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onacha, Stephen Alumasa

    This dissertation presents a new method of using earthquakes and resistivity data to characterize permeable hydrothermal reservoirs. The method is applied to field examples from Casa Diablo in the Long Valley Caldera, California; Mt. Longonot, Kenya; and Krafla, Iceland. The new method has significant practical value in the exploration and production of geothermal energy. The method uses P- and S-wave velocity, S-wave polarization and splitting magnitude, resistivity and magnetotelluric (MT) strike directions to determine fracture-porosity and orientation. The conceptual model used to characterize the buried, fluid-circulating fault zones in hydrothermal systems is based on geological and fracture models. The method has been tested with field earthquake and resistivity data; core samples; temperature measurements; and, for the case of Krafla, with a drilled well. The use of resistivity and microearthquake measurements is based on theoretical formulation of shared porosity, anisotropy and polarization. The relation of resistivity and a double porosity-operator is solved using a basis function. The porosity-operator is used to generate a correlation function between P-wave velocity and resistivity. This correlation is then used to generate P-wave velocity from 2-D resistivity models. The resistivity models are generated from magnetotelluric (MT) by using the Non-Linear Conjugate Gradient (NLCG) inversion method. The seismic and electrical measurements used come from portable, multi station microearthquake (MEQ) monitoring networks and multi-profile, MT and transient electromagnetic (TEM) observation campaigns. The main conclusions in this dissertation are listed below: (1) Strong evidence exists for correlation between MT strike direction and anisotropy and MEQ S-wave splitting at sites close to fluid-filled fracture zones. (2) A porosity operator generated from a double porosity model has been used to generate valid P-wave velocity models from resistivity data. This

  17. Automated fault extraction and classification using 3-D seismic data for the Ekofisk field development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Signer, C.; Nickel, M.; Randen, T.; Saeter, T.; Soenneland, H.H.

    1998-12-31

    Mapping of fractures is important for the prediction of fluid flow in many reservoir types. The fluid flow depends mainly on the efficiency of the reservoir seals. Improved spatial mapping of the open and closed fracture systems will allow a better prediction of the fluid flow pattern. The primary objectives of this paper is to present fracture characterization at the reservoir scale combined with seismic facies mapping. The complexity of the giant Ekofisk field on the Norwegian continental shelf provides an ideal framework for testing the validity and the applicability of an automated seismic fault and fracture detection and mapping tool. The mapping of the faults can be based on seismic attribute grids, which means that attribute-responses related to faults are extracted along key horizons which were interpreted in the reservoir interval. 3 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Why the 2002 Denali fault rupture propagated onto the Totschunda fault: implications for fault branching and seismic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, David P.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Seitz, Gordon G.; Dawson, Timothy E.

    2012-01-01

    The propagation of the rupture of the Mw7.9 Denali fault earthquake from the central Denali fault onto the Totschunda fault has provided a basis for dynamic models of fault branching in which the angle of the regional or local prestress relative to the orientation of the main fault and branch plays a principal role in determining which fault branch is taken. GeoEarthScope LiDAR and paleoseismic data allow us to map the structure of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection and evaluate controls of fault branching from a geological perspective. LiDAR data reveal the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection is structurally simple with the two faults directly connected. At the branch point, 227.2 km east of the 2002 epicenter, the 2002 rupture diverges southeast to become the Totschunda fault. We use paleoseismic data to propose that differences in the accumulated strain on each fault segment, which express differences in the elapsed time since the most recent event, was one important control of the branching direction. We suggest that data on event history, slip rate, paleo offsets, fault geometry and structure, and connectivity, especially on high slip rate-short recurrence interval faults, can be used to assess the likelihood of branching and its direction. Analysis of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection has implications for evaluating the potential for a rupture to propagate across other types of fault intersections and for characterizing sources of future large earthquakes.

  19. Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT) for Aquaculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingyi; Zhen, Zhumi; Yu, Huihui; Xu, Jing

    2017-01-14

    In the Internet of Things (IoT) equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT.

  20. Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT for Aquaculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyi Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Internet of Things (IoT equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT.

  1. Multi-scale investigation into the mechanisms of fault mirror formation in seismically active carbonate rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohl, Markus; Chatzaras, Vasileios; Niemeijer, Andre; King, Helen; Drury, Martyn; Plümper, Oliver

    2017-04-01

    Mirror surfaces along principal slip zones in carbonate rocks have recently received considerable attention as they are thought to form during fault slip at seismic velocities and thus may be a marker for paleo-seismicity (Siman-Tov et al., 2013). Therefore, these structures represent an opportunity to improve our understanding of earthquake mechanics in carbonate faults. Recent investigations reported the formation of fault mirrors in natural rocks as well as in laboratory experiments and connected their occurrence to the development of nano-sized granular material (Spagnuolo et al., 2015). However, the underlying formation and deformation mechanisms of these fault mirrors are still poorly constrained and warrant further research. In order to understand the influence and significance of these fault products on the overall fault behavior, we analysed the micro-, and nanostructural inventory of natural fault samples containing mirror slip surfaces. Here we present first results on the possible formation mechanisms of fault mirrors and associated deformation mechanisms operating in the carbonate fault gouge from two seismically active fault zones in central Greece. Our study specifically focuses on mirror slip surfaces obtained from the Arkitsa fault in the Gulf of Evia and the Schinos fault in the Gulf of Corinth. The Schinos fault was reactivated by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in 1981 while the Arkitsa fault is thought to have been reactivated by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake in 1894. Our investigations encompass a combination of state-of-the-art analytical techniques including X-ray computed tomography, focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Raman spectroscopy. Using this multiscale analytical approach, we report decarbonation-reaction structures, considerable calcite twinning and grain welding immediately below the mirror slip surface. Grains or areas indicating decarbonation reactions show a foam

  2. Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

    2018-04-01

    Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

  3. Treatment of complementary events in constructing the linked Level 1 and Level 2 fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young G.; Ahn, Kwang-Il

    2009-01-01

    Complementary events in the event trees for a PRA model should be treated properly in order to evaluate plant risk correctly. In this paper, the characteristics of the following three different cutset generation methods were investigated first in order to find the best practical way for treating complementary events: (1) exact method which treats complementary events logically, (2) no-delete term method which does not treat complementary events at all, and (3) delete term method which treats complementary events by deleting nonsense cutsets which are generated as a result of ignoring complementary events. Then, practical methods for treating complementary events in constructing linked fault trees for Level 1 and Level 2 PRA were suggested and demonstrated. The suggested methods deal with the following selected four typical cases: (1) Case 1-an event tree event (E) is represented by a fault tree gate whose inputs consist of only fault tree gates, (2) Case 2-E is represented by a single basic event, (3) Case 3-E is represented by an OR fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs, and (4) Case 4-E is represented by an AND fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs. In the suggested methods, first the high level logic structures of event tree events are examined and restructured, if needed. Then, the delete term method, the exact method, and the combination of the two methods are applied to through Case 1 to Case 4, respectively. As a result, it is recommended to treat complementary events, using the suggested methods, before Level 1 and Level 2 PRA fault trees are coupled

  4. Treatment of complementary events in event trees in constructing linked fault trees for level 1 and level 2 PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Y. G.

    2008-01-01

    Complementary events in the event trees for a PRA model should be treated properly in order to evaluate plant risk correctly. In this study, the characteristics of the following three different cut-set generation methods were investigated first in order to find the best practical way for treating complementary events: 1) exact method which treats complementary events logically, 2) no-delete term method which does not treat complementary events at all, and 3) delete term method which treats complementary events by deleting nonsense cut-sets which are generated as a result of ignoring complementary events. Then, practical methods for treating complementary events in constructing linked fault trees for level 1 and level 2 PRA in EPRI R and R workstation software environment, where CAFTA is the fault tree editor and FORTE is the cut-set engine, were suggested and demonstrated. The suggested methods deal with the following selected four typical cases: Case 1: an event tree event (E) is represented by a fault tree gate whose inputs consist of only fault tree gates, Case 2: E is represented by a single basic event, Case 3: E is represented by an OR fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs, and Case 4: E is represented by an AND fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs. In the suggested methods, first the high level logic structures of event tree events are examined and restructured, if needed. Then, the delete term method, the exact method, and the combination of the two methods are applied to Case 1, Case 2, and Cases 3 and 4, respectively. Also, it is recommended to treat complementary events, using the suggested methods, before level 1 and level 2 PRA fault trees are coupled. It should be noted that the selected four typical cases may not cover all different cases encountered in level 1 and level 2 PRA modeling. However, a process similar to the one suggested in this study may be used to find

  5. Seismic investigation of the Kunlun Fault: Analysis of the INDEPTH IV 2-D active-source seismic dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seelig, William George

    The Tibetan Plateau has experienced significant crustal thickening and deformation since the continental subduction and collision of the Asian and Indian plates in the Eocene. Deformation of the northern Tibetan Plateau is largely accommodated by strike-slip faulting. The Kunlun Fault is a 1000-km long strike-slip fault near the northern boundary of the Plateau that has experienced five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes in the past 100 years and represents a major rheological boundary. Active-source, 2-D seismic reflection/refraction data, collected as part of project INDEPTH IV (International Deep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalaya, phase IV) in 2007, was used to examine the structure and the dip of the Kunlun fault. The INDEPTH IV data was acquired to better understand the tectonic evolution of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, such as the far-field deformation associated with the continent-continent collision and the potential subduction of the Asian continent beneath northern Tibet. Seismic reflection common depth point (CDP) stacks were examined to look for reflectivity patterns that may be associated with faulting. A possible reflection from the buried North Kunlun Thrust (NKT) is identified at 18-21 km underneath the East Kunlun Mountains, with an estimated apparent dip of 15°S and thrusting to the north. Minimally-processed shot gathers were also inspected for reflections off near-vertical structures such as faults and information on first-order velocity structure. Shot offset and nearest receiver number to reflection was catalogued to increase confidence of picks. Reflections off the North Kunlun (NKF) and South Kunlun Faults (SKF) were identified and analyzed for apparent dip and subsurface geometry. Fault reflection analysis found that the North Kunlun Fault had an apparent dip of approximately 68ºS to an estimated depth of 5 km, while the South Kunlun Fault dipped at approximately 78ºN to an estimated 3.5 km depth. Constraints on apparent dip and

  6. FiSH: put fault data in a seismic hazard basket

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Bruno; Visini, Francesco; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The practice of using fault sources in seismic hazard studies is growing in popularity, including in regions with moderate seismic activity, such as the European countries. In these areas, fault identification may be affected by similarly large uncertainties in the historical and instrumental seismic histories of more active areas that have not been inhabited for long periods of time. Certain studies have effectively applied a time-dependent perspective to combine historical and instrumental seismic data with geological and paleoseismological information, partially compensating for a lack of information. We present a package of Matlab® tools (called FiSH), in publication on Seismological Research Letters, designed to help seismic hazard modellers analyse fault data. These tools enable the derivation of expected earthquake rates given common fault data, and allow you to test the consistency between the magnitude frequency distributions assigned to a fault and some available observations. The basic assumption of FiSH is that the geometric and kinematic features of a fault are the expression of its seismogenic potential. Three tools have been designed to integrate the variable levels of information available: (a) the first tool allows users to convert fault geometry and slip rates into a global budget of the seismic moment released in a given time frame, taking uncertainties into account; (b) the second tool computes the recurrence parameters and associated uncertainties from historical and/or paleoseismological data; 
(c) the third tool outputs time-independent or time-dependent earthquake rates for different magnitude frequency distribution models. We present moreover a test case to illustrate the capabilities of FiSH, on the Paganica normal fault in Central Italy that ruptured during the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake sequence (mainshock Mw 6.3). FiSH is available at http://fish-code.com, and the source codes are open. We encourage users to handle the scripts

  7. Seismic trapped modes in the oroville and san andreas fault zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y G; Leary, P; Aki, K; Malin, P

    1990-08-17

    Three-component borehole seismic profiling of the recently active Oroville, California, normal fault and microearthquake event recording with a near-fault three-component borehole seismometer on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, have shown numerous instances of pronounced dispersive wave trains following the shear wave arrivals. These wave trains are interpreted as fault zone-trapped seismic modes. Parkfield earthquakes exciting trapped modes have been located as deep as 10 kilometers, as shallow as 4 kilometers, and extend 12 kilometers along the fault on either side of the recording station. Selected Oroville and Parkfield wave forms are modeled as the fundamental and first higher trapped SH modes of a narrow low-velocity layer at the fault. Modeling results suggest that the Oroville fault zone is 18 meters wide at depth and has a shear wave velocity of 1 kilometer per second, whereas at Parkfield, the fault gouge is 100 to 150 meters wide and has a shear wave velocity of 1.1 to 1.8 kilometers per second. These low-velocity layers are probably the rupture planes on which earthquakes occur.

  8. Seismic Evidence for Conjugate Slip and Block Rotation Within the San Andreas Fault System, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Craig; Seeber, Leonardo; Williams, Patrick; Sykes, Lynn R.

    1986-08-01

    The pattern of seismicity in southern California indicates that much of the activity is presently occurring on secondary structures, several of which are oriented nearly orthogonal to the strikes of the major through-going faults. Slip along these secondary transverse features is predominantly left-lateral and is consistent with the reactivation of conjugate faults by the current regional stress field. Near the intersection of the San Jacinto and San Andreas faults, however, these active left-lateral faults appear to define a set of small crustal blocks, which in conjunction with both normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, suggests contemporary clockwise rotation as a result of regional right-lateral shear. Other left-lateral faults representing additional rotating block systems are identified in adjacent areas from geologic and seismologic data. Many of these structures predate the modern San Andreas system and may control the pattern of strain accumulation in southern California. Geodetic and paleomagnetic evidence confirm that block rotation by strike-slip faulting is nearly ubiquitous, particularly in areas where shear is distributed, and that it accommodates both short-term elastic and long-term nonelastic strain. A rotating block model accounts for a number of structural styles characteristic of strike-slip deformation in California, including: variable slip rates and alternating transtensional and transpressional features observed along strike of major wrench faults; domains of evenly-spaced antithetic faults that terminate against major fault boundaries; continued development of bends in faults with large lateral displacements; anomalous focal mechanisms; and differential uplift in areas otherwise expected to experience extension and subsidence. Since block rotation requires a detachment surface at depth to permit rotational movement, low-angle structures like detachments, of either local or regional extent, may be involved in the contemporary strike

  9. ANCON: A code for the evaluation of complex fault trees in personal computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napoles, J.G.; Salomon, J.; Rivero, J.

    1990-01-01

    Performing probabilistic safety analysis has been recognized worldwide as one of the more effective ways for further enhancing safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The evaluation of fault trees plays a fundamental role in these analysis. Some existing limitations in RAM and execution speed of personal computers (PC) has restricted so far their use in the analysis of complex fault trees. Starting from new approaches in the data structure and other possibilities the ANCON code can evaluate complex fault trees in a PC, allowing the user to do a more comprehensive analysis of the considered system in reduced computing time

  10. Seismicity rate surge on faults after shut-in: poroelastic response to fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, K. W.; Yoon, H.; Martinez, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Subsurface energy activities such as geological CO2 storage and wastewater injection require injecting large amounts of fluid into the subsurface, which will alter the states of pore pressure and stress in the storage formation. One of the main issues for injection-induced seismicity is the post shut-in increases in the seismicity rate, often observed in the fluid-injection operation sites. The rate surge can be driven by the following mechanisms: (1) pore-pressure propagation into distant faults after shut-in and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by well operations, depending on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection history. We simulate the aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike-slip faults, in which injection-induced pressure buildup encounters the faults directly. We examine the poroelastic response of the faults to fluid injection and perform a series of sensitivity tests considering: (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injection point, and (3) well operations with varying the injection rate. Our analysis of the Coulomb stress change suggests that the sealing fault confines pressure diffusion which stabilizes or weakens the nearby conductive fault depending on the injection location. We perform the sensitivity test by changing injection scenarios (time-dependent rates), while keeping the total amount of injected fluids. Sensitivity analysis shows that gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the Coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

  11. Dealing with completeness, structural hierarchy, and seismic coupling issues: three major challenges for #Fault2SHA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valensise, Gianluca; Barba, Salvatore; Basili, Roberto; Bonini, Lorenzo; Burrato, Pierfrancesco; Carafa, Michele; Kastelic, Vanja; Fracassi, Umberto; Maesano, Francesco Emanuele; Tarabusi, Gabriele; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Vannoli, Paola

    2016-04-01

    The vast majority of active faulting studies are performed at the scale of individual, presumably seismogenic faults or fault strands. Most SHA approaches and models, however, require homogeneus information on potential earthquake sources over the entire tectonic domain encompassing the site(s) of interest. Although it is out of question that accurate SHA must rely on robust investigations of individual potential earthquake sources, it is only by gathering this information in regionally extensive databases that one can address some of the most outstanding issues in the use of #Fault2SHA. We will briefly recall three issues that are particularly relevant in the investigation of seismogenic faulting in southern Europe. A fundamental challenge is the completeness of the geologic record of active faulting. In most tectonic environments many potential seismogenic faults are blind or hidden, or deform the lower crust without leaving a discernible signal at the surface, or occur offshore, or slip so slowly that nontectonic erosional-depositional processes easily outpace their surface effects. Investigating only well-expressed faults is scientifically rewarding but also potentially misleading as it draws attention on the least insidious faults, leading to a potential underestimation of the regional earthquake potential. A further issue concerns the hierarchy of fault systems. Most active faults do not comprise seismogenic sources per se but are part of larger systems, and slip only in conjunction with the master fault of each system. In the most insidious cases, only secondary faults are expressed at the surface while the master fault lies hidden beneath them. This may result in an overestimation of the true number of seismogenic sources that occur in each region and in a biased identification of the characteristics of the main player in each system. Recent investigations of geologic and geodetic vs earthquake release budgets have shown that the "seismic coupling", which

  12. Seismic and geodetic signatures of fault slip at the Slumgullion Landslide Natural Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J.; Schulz, W.; Bodin, P.; Kean, J.

    2011-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that the Slumgullion landslide is a useful natural laboratory for observing fault slip, specifically that slip along its basal surface and side-bounding strike-slip faults occurs with comparable richness of aseismic and seismic modes as along crustal- and plate-scale boundaries. Our study provides new constraints on models governing landslide motion. We monitored landslide deformation with temporary deployments of a 29-element prism array surveyed by a robotic theodolite and an 88-station seismic network that complemented permanent extensometers and environmental instrumentation. Aseismic deformation observations show that large blocks of the landslide move steadily at approximately centimeters per day, possibly punctuated by variations of a few millimeters, while localized transient slip episodes of blocks less than a few tens of meters across occur frequently. We recorded a rich variety of seismic signals, nearly all of which originated outside the monitoring network boundaries or from the side-bounding strike-slip faults. The landslide basal surface beneath our seismic network likely slipped almost completely aseismically. Our results provide independent corroboration of previous inferences that dilatant strengthening along sections of the side-bounding strike-slip faults controls the overall landslide motion, acting as seismically radiating brakes that limit acceleration of the aseismically slipping basal surface. Dilatant strengthening has also been invoked in recent models of transient slip and tremor sources along crustal- and plate-scale faults suggesting that the landslide may indeed be a useful natural laboratory for testing predictions of specific mechanisms that control fault slip at all scales.

  13. Intraplate seismicity along the Gedi Fault in Kachchh rift basin of western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Vishwa; Rastogi, B. K.; Kumar, Santosh

    2017-11-01

    The Kachchh rift basin is located on the western continental margin of India and has a history of experiencing large to moderate intraplate earthquakes with M ≥ 5. During the past two centuries, two large earthquakes of Mw 7.8 (1819) and Mw 7.7 (2001) have occurred in the Kachchh region, the latter with an epicenter near Bhuj. The aftershock activity of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake is still ongoing with migration of seismicity. Initially, epicenters migrated towards the east and northeast within the Kachchh region but, since 2007, it has also migrated to the south. The triggered faults are mostly within 100 km and some up to 200 km distance from the epicentral area of the mainshock. Most of these faults are trending in E-W direction, and some are transverse. It was noticed that some faults generate earthquakes down to the Moho depth whereas some faults show earthquake activity within the upper crustal volume. The Gedi Fault, situated about 50 km northeast of the 2001 mainshock epicenter, triggered the largest earthquake of Mw 5.6 in 2006. We have carried out detailed seismological studies to evaluate the seismic potential of the Gedi Fault. We have relocated 331 earthquakes by HypoDD to improve upon location errors. Further, the relocated events are used to estimate the b value, p value, and fractal correlation dimension Dc of the fault zone. The present study indicates that all the events along the Gedi Fault are shallow in nature, with focal depths less than 20 km. The estimated b value shows that the Gedi aftershock sequence could be classified as Mogi's type 2 sequence, and the p value suggests a relatively slow decay of aftershocks. The fault plane solutions of some selected events of Mw > 3.5 are examined, and activeness of the Gedi Fault is assessed from the results of active fault studies as well as GPS and InSAR results. All these results are critically examined to evaluate the material properties and seismic potential of the Gedi Fault that may be useful

  14. Study of the evolution of the seismic cycle of stress and strain associated to the El Salvador Fault Zone

    OpenAIRE

    Staller Vázquez, Alejandra

    2011-01-01

    • Central America: – Regional studies in Central America (Seismic Hazard). – El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ). – Aguacaliente‐Navarro Fault Zone (ANFZ), Central Valley of Costa Rica. – Haiti (seismic hazard) • Spain: – Regional‐Nacional studies of seismic hazards (applications to building codes, eurocode, emergency plans, etc.) – Betic range zone, south of Spain. – Ibero‐Maghrebi region (collision zone)

  15. Research on Fault Diagnosis for Pumping Station Based on T-S Fuzzy Fault Tree and Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuqing Bi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the characteristics of fault diagnosis for pumping station, such as the complex structure, multiple mappings, and numerous uncertainties, a new approach combining T-S fuzzy gate fault tree and Bayesian network (BN is proposed. On the one hand, traditional fault tree method needs the logical relationship between events and probability value of events and can only represent the events with two states. T-S fuzzy gate fault tree method can solve these disadvantages but still has weaknesses in complex reasoning and only one-way reasoning. On the other hand, the BN is suitable for fault diagnosis of pumping station because of its powerful ability to deal with uncertain information. However, it is difficult to determine the structure and conditional probability tables of the BN. Therefore, the proposed method integrates the advantages of the two methods. Finally, the feasibility of the method is verified through a fault diagnosis model of the rotor in the pumping unit, the accuracy of the method is verified by comparing with the methods based on traditional Bayesian network and BP neural network, respectively, when the historical data is sufficient, and the results are more superior to the above two when the historical data is insufficient.

  16. Seismicity Pattern and Fault Structure in the Central Himalaya Seismic Gap Using Precise Earthquake Hypocenters and their Source Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Rai, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The devastation brought on by the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal on 25 April 2015, reconditioned people to the high earthquake risk along the Himalayan arc. It is therefore imperative to learn from the Gorkha earthquake, and gain a better understanding of the state of stress in this fault regime, in order to identify areas that could produce the next devastating earthquake. Here, we focus on what is known as the "central Himalaya seismic gap". It is located in Uttarakhand, India, west of Nepal, where a large (> Mw 7.0) earthquake has not occurred for over the past 200 years [Rajendran, C.P., & Rajendran, K., 2005]. This 500 - 800 km long along-strike seismic gap has been poorly studied, mainly due to the lack of modern and dense instrumentation. It is especially concerning since it surrounds densely populated cities, such as New Delhi. In this study, we analyze a rich seismic dataset from a dense network consisting of 50 broadband stations, that operated between 2005 and 2012. We use the STA/LTA filter technique to detect earthquake phases, and the latest tools contributed to the Antelope software environment, to develop a large and robust earthquake catalog containing thousands of precise hypocentral locations, magnitudes, and focal mechanisms. By refining those locations in HypoDD [Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000] to form a tighter cluster of events using relative relocation, we can potentially illustrate fault structures in this region with high resolution. Additionally, using ZMAP [Weimer, S., 2001], we perform a variety of statistical analyses to understand the variability and nature of seismicity occurring in the region. Generating a large and consistent earthquake catalog not only brings to light the physical processes controlling the earthquake cycle in an Himalayan seismogenic zone, it also illustrates how stresses are building up along the décollment and the faults that stem from it. With this new catalog, we aim to reveal fault structure, study

  17. Syntectonic Mississippi River Channel Response: Integrating River Morphology and Seismic Imaging to Detect Active Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnani, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    Alluvial rivers, even great rivers such as the Mississippi, respond to hydrologic and geologic controls. Temporal variations of valley gradient can significantly alter channel morphology, as the river responds syntectonically to attain equilibrium. The river will alter its sinuosity, in an attempt to maintain a constant gradient on a surface that changes slope through time. Therefore, changes of river pattern can be the first clue that active tectonics is affecting an area of pattern change. Here I present geomorphological and seismic imaging evidence of a previously unknown fault crossing the Mississippi river south of the New Madrid seismic zone, between Caruthersville, Missouri and Osceola, Arkansas, and show that both datasets support Holocene fault movement, with the latest slip occurring in the last 200 years. High resolution marine seismic reflection data acquired along the Mississippi river imaged a NW-SE striking north-dipping fault displacing the base of the Quaternary alluvium by 15 m with reverse sense of movement. The fault consistently deforms the Tertiary, Cretaceous and Paleozoic formations. Historical river channel planforms dating back to 1765 reveal that the section of the river channel across the fault has been characterized by high sinuosity and steep projected-channel slope compared to adjacent river reaches. In particular, the reach across the fault experienced a cutoff in 1821, resulting in a temporary lowering of sinuosity followed by an increase between the survey of 1880 and 1915. Under the assumption that the change in sinuosity reflects river response to a valley slope change to maintain constant gradient, I use sinuosity through time to calculate the change in valley slope since 1880 and therefore to estimate the vertical displacement of the imaged fault in the past 200 years. Based on calculations so performed, the vertical offset of the fault is estimated to be 0.4 m, accrued since at least 1880. If the base of the river alluvium

  18. Seismic evidence of conjugate normal faulting: The 1994 Devil Canyon earthquake sequence near Challis, Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, S.M.

    1994-08-01

    In this study, the term ''conjugate'' refers to faults that occur in two intersecting sets and coordinated kinematically, with each set being distinctive in both orientation and sense of shear (Davis, 1984). Contemporaneous activity along the conjugate faults is defined as occurring within the time frame of the mainshock-aftershock sequence (three weeks for this sequence and generally less than one month in other observed cases). Detailed recordings of microearthquakes from a dense array of temporary analog seismic stations are analyzed. The focal mechanisms and hypocenter spatial and temporal characteristics are combined with geological information to assess the style, geometry, timing, kinematics, and mechanics of conjugate normal faulting. The characteristics of conjugate normal faulting observed in the Devil Canyon sequence are compared to other conjugate normal faulting sequences, and strike-slip and thrust conjugate sequences worldwide

  19. Characterization and application of microearthquake clusters to problems of scaling, fault zone dynamics, and seismic monitoring at Parkfield, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadeau, Robert Michael [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    This document contains information about the characterization and application of microearthquake clusters and fault zone dynamics. Topics discussed include: Seismological studies; fault-zone dynamics; periodic recurrence; scaling of microearthquakes to large earthquakes; implications of fault mechanics and seismic hazards; and wave propagation and temporal changes.

  20. Quaternary layer anomalies around the Carlsberg Fault zone mapped with high-resolution shear-wave seismics south of Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammann, Janina; Hübscher, Christian; Nielsen, Lars

    Fault zone. The portable compact vibrator source ElViS III S8 was used to acquire a 1150 m long seismic section on the island Amager, south of Copenhagen. The shallow subsurface in the investigation area is dominated by Quaternary glacial till deposits in the upper 5-11 m and Danian limestone below....... In the shear-wave profile, we imaged the 30 m of the upward continuation of the Carlsberg Fault zone. In our area of investigation, the fault zone appears to comprise normal block faults and one reverse block fault showing the complexity of the fault zone. The observed faults appear to affect both the Danian...

  1. A comparison between fault tree analysis and reliability graph with general gates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun; Jung, Woo Sik

    2004-01-01

    Currently, level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is performed on the basis of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Kim and Seong developed a new method for system reliability analysis named reliability graph with general gates (RGGG). The RGGG is an extension of conventional reliability graph, and it utilizes the transformation of system structures to equivalent Bayesian networks for quantitative calculation. The RGGG is considered to be intuitive and easy-to-use while as powerful as fault tree analysis. As an example, Kim and Seong already showed that the Bayesian network model for digital plant protection system (DPPS), which is transformed from the RGGG model for DPPS, can be shown in 1 page, while the fault tree model for DPPS consists of 64 pages of fault trees. Kim and Seong also insisted that Bayesian network model for DPPS is more intuitive because the one-to-one matching between each node in the Bayesian network model and an actual component of DPPS is possible. In this paper, we are going to give a comparison between fault tree analysis and the RGGG method with two example systems. The two example systems are the recirculation of in Korean standard nuclear power plants (KSNP) and the fault tree model developed by Rauzy

  2. One-dimensional modeling of thermal energy produced in a seismic fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konga, Guy Pascal; Koumetio, Fidèle; Yemele, David; Olivier Djiogang, Francis

    2017-12-01

    Generally, one observes an anomaly of temperature before a big earthquake. In this paper, we established the expression of thermal energy produced by friction forces between the walls of a seismic fault while considering the dynamic of a one-dimensional spring-block model. It is noted that, before the rupture of a seismic fault, displacements are caused by microseisms. The curves of variation of this thermal energy with time show that, for oscillatory and aperiodic displacement, the thermal energy is accumulated in the same way. The study reveals that thermal energy as well as temperature increases abruptly after a certain amount of time. We suggest that the corresponding time is the start of the anomaly of temperature observed which can be considered as precursory effect of a big seism. We suggest that the thermal energy can heat gases and dilate rocks until they crack. The warm gases can then pass through the cracks towards the surface. The cracks created by thermal energy can also contribute to the rupture of the seismic fault. We also suggest that the theoretical model of thermal energy, produced in seismic fault, associated with a large quantity of experimental data may help in the prediction of earthquakes.

  3. Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    provide the best agreement with independently observed focal mechanisms. Tests on synthetic catalogues allow qualification of the performance of the fitting method and of the various validation procedures. The ACLUD method is able to provide solutions that are close to the expected ones, especially for the BIC and focal mechanism-based techniques. The clustering method complemented by the validation step based on focal mechanisms provides good solutions even in the presence of a significant spatial background seismicity rate. As the new clustering method is able to deal with most of the information contained in modern earthquake catalogues, the geometry of the local station network may improve or alter the reconstruction of the underlying fault system. This is illustrated by using the highest-quality data selected using station network criteria which results in reconstructed fault planes of higher quality and accuracy. Using lower-quality data can lead to unstable and unreliable fault networks and may introduce artefacts, in particular in regions of a complex fault structure. The results highlight the need to carefully assess the quality and reliability of reconstructed fault networks from real data that unavoidably involve the clustering of data of heterogeneous quality. Based on realistic tests with synthetic fault network structures, the results also stress the importance of accounting for under-sampled sub-fault structures as well as for spatially-inhomogeneous location uncertainties. The fault reconstruction method is applied to two real datasets at two very different spatial scales, i.e. the 1992 Landers M7 earthquake sequence in Southern California, and the Basel (Switzerland) induced seismicity sequence. In both case studies, fault network results reasonably compare with independent structural analysis data, suggesting highly complex fault structures for both, at the scale of the Landers earthquake covering a volume of about 70,000 km 3 and in the volume of the

  4. SETS, Boolean Manipulation for Network Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, R.B.

    1985-01-01

    Description of problem or function - SETS is used for symbolic manipulation of set (or Boolean) equations, particularly the reduction of set equations by the application of set identities. It is a flexible and efficient tool for performing probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), vital area analysis, and common cause analysis. The equation manipulation capabilities of SETS can also be used to analyze non-coherent fault trees and determine prime implicants of Boolean functions, to verify circuit design implementation, to determine minimum cost fire protection requirements for nuclear reactor plants, to obtain solutions to combinatorial optimization problems with Boolean constraints, and to determine the susceptibility of a facility to unauthorized access through nullification of sensors in its protection system. 4. Method of solution - The SETS program is used to read, interpret, and execute the statements of a SETS user program which is an algorithm that specifies the particular manipulations to be performed and the order in which they are to occur. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Any properly formed set equation involving the set operations of union, intersection, and complement is acceptable for processing by the SETS program. Restrictions on the size of a set equation that can be processed are not absolute but rather are related to the number of terms in the disjunctive normal form of the equation, the number of literals in the equation, etc. Nevertheless, set equations involving thousands and even hundreds of thousands of terms can be processed successfully

  5. Large-coil-test-facility fault-tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    An operating-safety study is being conducted for the Large Coil Test Facility (LCTF). The purpose of this study is to provide the facility operators and users with added insight into potential problem areas that could affect the safety of personnel or the availability of equipment. This is a preliminary report, on Phase I of that study. A central feature of the study is the incorporation of engineering judgements (by LCTF personnel) into an outside, overall view of the facility. The LCTF was analyzed in terms of 32 subsystems, each of which are subject to failure from any of 15 generic failure initiators. The study identified approximately 40 primary areas of concern which were subjected to a computer analysis as an aid in understanding the complex subsystem interactions that can occur within the facility. The study did not analyze in detail the internal structure of the subsystems at the individual component level. A companion study using traditional fault tree techniques did analyze approximately 20% of the LCTF at the component level. A comparison between these two analysis techniques is included in Section 7

  6. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  7. BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

  8. "Handling" seismic hazard: 3D printing of California Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriakopoulos, C.; Potter, M.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    As earth scientists, we face the challenge of how to explain and represent our work and achievements to the general public. Nowadays, this problem is partially alleviated by the use of modern visualization tools such as advanced scientific software (Paraview.org), high resolution monitors, elaborate video simulations, and even 3D Virtual Reality goggles. However, the ability to manipulate and examine a physical object in 3D is still an important tool to connect better with the public. For that reason, we are presenting a scaled 3D printed version of the complex network of earthquake faults active in California based on that used by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) (Field et al., 2013). We start from the fault geometry in the UCERF3.1 deformation model files. These files contain information such as the coordinates of the surface traces of the faults, dip angle, and depth extent. The fault specified in the above files are triangulated at 1km resolution and exported as a facet (.fac) file. The facet file is later imported into the Trelis 15.1 mesh generator (csimsoft.com). We use Trelis to perform the following three operations: First, we scale down the model so that 100 mm corresponds to 100km. Second, we "thicken" the walls of the faults; wall thickness of at least 1mm is necessary in 3D printing. We thicken fault geometry by 1mm on each side of the faults for a total of 2mm thickness. Third, we break down the model into parts that will fit the printing bed size ( 25 x 20mm). Finally, each part is exported in stereolithography format (.stl). For our project, we are using the 3D printing facility within the Creat'R Lab in the UC Riverside Orbach Science Library. The 3D printer is a MakerBot Replicator Desktop, 5th Generation. The resolution of print is 0.2mm (Standard quality). The printing material is the MakerBot PLA Filament, 1.75 mm diameter, large Spool, green. The most complex part of the display model requires approximately 17

  9. FTA, Fault Tree Analysis for Minimal Cut Sets, Graphics for CALCOMP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Slyke, W.J.; Griffing, D.E.; Diven, J.

    1978-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: The FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) system was designed to predict probabilities of the modes of failure for complex systems and to graphically present the structure of systems. There are three programs in the system. Program ALLCUTS performs the calculations. Program KILMER constructs a CalComp plot file of the system fault tree. Program BRANCH builds a cross-reference list of the system fault tree. 2 - Method of solution: ALLCUTS employs a top-down set expansion algorithm to find fault tree cut-sets and then optionally calculates their probability using a currently accepted cut-set quantification method. The methodology is adapted from that in WASH-1400 (draft), August 1974. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of: 175 basic events, 425 rate events. ALLCUTS may be expanded to solve larger problems depending on available core memory

  10. Component-based modeling of systems for automated fault tree generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majdara, Aref; Wakabayashi, Toshio

    2009-01-01

    One of the challenges in the field of automated fault tree construction is to find an efficient modeling approach that can support modeling of different types of systems without ignoring any necessary details. In this paper, we are going to represent a new system of modeling approach for computer-aided fault tree generation. In this method, every system model is composed of some components and different types of flows propagating through them. Each component has a function table that describes its input-output relations. For the components having different operational states, there is also a state transition table. Each component can communicate with other components in the system only through its inputs and outputs. A trace-back algorithm is proposed that can be applied to the system model to generate the required fault trees. The system modeling approach and the fault tree construction algorithm are applied to a fire sprinkler system and the results are presented

  11. NuFTA: A CASE Tool for Automatic Software Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Sang Hyun; Lee, Dong Ah; Yoo, Jun Beom

    2010-01-01

    Software fault tree analysis (SFTA) is widely used for analyzing software requiring high-reliability. In SFTA, experts predict failures of system through HA-ZOP (Hazard and Operability study) or FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) and draw software fault trees about the failures. Quality and cost of the software fault tree, therefore, depend on knowledge and experience of the experts. This paper proposes a CASE tool NuFTA in order to assist experts of safety analysis. The NuFTA automatically generate software fault trees from NuSCR formal requirements specification. NuSCR is a formal specification language used for specifying software requirements of KNICS RPS (Reactor Protection System) in Korea. We used the SFTA templates proposed by in order to generate SFTA automatically. The NuFTA also generates logical formulae summarizing the failure's cause, and we have a plan to use the formulae usefully through formal verification techniques

  12. Identification of independent modules in fault trees which contain dependent basic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, H.; Andrews, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    The reliability performance of a system is frequently a function of component failures of which some are independent whilst others are interdependent. It is possible to represent the system failure logic in a fault tree diagram, however only the sections containing independent events can be assessed using the conventional fault tree analysis methodology. The analysis of the dependent sections will require a Markov analysis. Since the efficiency of the Markov analysis largely depends on the size of the established Markov model, the key is to extract from the fault tree the smallest sections which contain dependencies. This paper proposes a method aimed at establishing the smallest Markov model for the dependencies contained within the fault tree

  13. Automatic fault tree construction with RIKKE - a compendium of examples. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1982-02-01

    This second volume describes the construction of fault trees for systems with loops, including control and safety loops. It also gives a short summary of the event coding scheme used in the FTLIB component model library. (author)

  14. Three-dimensional cellular automata as a model of a seismic fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gálvez, G; Muñoz, A

    2017-01-01

    The Earth's crust is broken into a series of plates, whose borders are the seismic fault lines and it is where most of the earthquakes occur. This plating system can in principle be described by a set of nonlinear coupled equations describing the motion of the plates, its stresses, strains and other characteristics. Such a system of equations is very difficult to solve, and nonlinear parts leads to a chaotic behavior, which is not predictable. In 1989, Bak and Tang presented an earthquake model based on the sand pile cellular automata. The model though simple, provides similar results to those observed in actual earthquakes. In this work the cellular automata in three dimensions is proposed as a best model to approximate a seismic fault. It is noted that the three-dimensional model reproduces similar properties to those observed in real seismicity, especially, the Gutenberg-Richter law. (paper)

  15. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria for seismic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Hintersberger

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria, moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs ∕ Mmax, obs = 8∕5.2 concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF. In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF, in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20–25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical

  16. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher

    2018-02-01

    Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the

  17. Fault zone identification in the eastern part of the Persian Gulf based on combined seismic attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirkamali, M. S.; Keshavarz FK, N.; Bakhtiari, M. R.

    2013-02-01

    Faults, as main pathways for fluids, play a critical role in creating regions of high porosity and permeability, in cutting cap rock and in the migration of hydrocarbons into the reservoir. Therefore, accurate identification of fault zones is very important in maximizing production from petroleum traps. Image processing and modern visualization techniques are provided for better mapping of objects of interest. In this study, the application of fault mapping in the identification of fault zones within the Mishan and Aghajari formations above the Guri base unconformity surface in the eastern part of Persian Gulf is investigated. Seismic single- and multi-trace attribute analyses are employed separately to determine faults in a vertical section, but different kinds of geological objects cannot be identified using individual attributes only. A mapping model is utilized to improve the identification of the faults, giving more accurate results. This method is based on combinations of all individual relevant attributes using a neural network system to create combined attributes, which gives an optimal view of the object of interest. Firstly, a set of relevant attributes were separately calculated on the vertical section. Then, at interpreted positions, some example training locations were manually selected in each fault and non-fault class by an interpreter. A neural network was trained on combinations of the attributes extracted at the example training locations to generate an optimized fault cube. Finally, the results of the fault and nonfault probability cube were estimated, which the neural network applied to the entire data set. The fault probability cube was obtained with higher mapping accuracy and greater contrast, and with fewer disturbances in comparison with individual attributes. The computed results of this study can support better understanding of the data, providing fault zone mapping with reliable results.

  18. Fault zone identification in the eastern part of the Persian Gulf based on combined seismic attributes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirkamali, M S; Keshavarz FK, N; Bakhtiari, M R

    2013-01-01

    Faults, as main pathways for fluids, play a critical role in creating regions of high porosity and permeability, in cutting cap rock and in the migration of hydrocarbons into the reservoir. Therefore, accurate identification of fault zones is very important in maximizing production from petroleum traps. Image processing and modern visualization techniques are provided for better mapping of objects of interest. In this study, the application of fault mapping in the identification of fault zones within the Mishan and Aghajari formations above the Guri base unconformity surface in the eastern part of Persian Gulf is investigated. Seismic single- and multi-trace attribute analyses are employed separately to determine faults in a vertical section, but different kinds of geological objects cannot be identified using individual attributes only. A mapping model is utilized to improve the identification of the faults, giving more accurate results. This method is based on combinations of all individual relevant attributes using a neural network system to create combined attributes, which gives an optimal view of the object of interest. Firstly, a set of relevant attributes were separately calculated on the vertical section. Then, at interpreted positions, some example training locations were manually selected in each fault and non-fault class by an interpreter. A neural network was trained on combinations of the attributes extracted at the example training locations to generate an optimized fault cube. Finally, the results of the fault and nonfault probability cube were estimated, which the neural network applied to the entire data set. The fault probability cube was obtained with higher mapping accuracy and greater contrast, and with fewer disturbances in comparison with individual attributes. The computed results of this study can support better understanding of the data, providing fault zone mapping with reliable results. (paper)

  19. Relating seismicity to the velocity structure of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippoldt, Rachel; Porritt, Robert W.; Sammis, Charles G.

    2017-06-01

    The central section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) displays a range of seismic phenomena including normal earthquakes, low-frequency earthquakes (LFE), repeating microearthquakes (REQ) and aseismic creep. Although many lines of evidence suggest that LFEs are tied to the presence of fluids, their geological setting is still poorly understood. Here, we map the seismic velocity structures associated with LFEs beneath the central SAF using surface wave tomography from ambient seismic noise to provide constraints on the physical conditions that control LFE occurrence. Fault perpendicular sections show that the SAF, as revealed by lateral contrasts in relative velocities, is contiguous to depths of 50 km and appears to be relatively localized at depths between about 15 and 30 km. This is consistent with the hypothesis that LFEs are shear-slip events on a deep extension of the SAF. We find that along strike variations in seismic behaviour correspond to changes in the seismic structure, which support proposed connections between fluids and seismicity. LFEs and REQs occur within low-velocity structures, suggesting that the presence of fluids, weaker minerals, or hydrous phase minerals may play an important role in the generation of slow-slip phenomena.

  20. The boolean algebra with restricted variables as a tool for fault tree modularization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.; Wickenhaeuser, A.

    1981-08-01

    The number of minimal cut sets (m.c.s.) of very complex and highly interconnected fault trees can become extremely large (e.g. more than 10 7 ). In this case the usual analytical approach of dissecting the fault tree TOP variable into m.c.s. is not only computationally prohibitively expensive, but also meaningless because it does not offer any synthetic overview of system behavior. The method proposed in this paper overcomes the deficiencies of the analytical method. It is shown that, by applying boolean algebra with restricted variables (b.a.w.r.v.), the concept of fault tree modularization can be straightforwardly extended from a single gate to a set of gates. Thus, large fault trees are divided into smaller fault trees (modules), which are connected to each other according to a simple scheme. This scheme is represented by a block diagram in which each block is a module. The modules are analyzed separately by the m.c.s. method, and the results are combined according of the TOP event. The method allows the calculation of very large fault trees in a short time and offers a synthetic overview of systems behavior through the block diagram. Numerical examples are also included. Calculations have been carried out by using the computer code MUSTAMO, which is based on the theory developed in this paper. (orig.) [de

  1. Seismic Evidence of A Widely Distributed West Napa Fault Zone, Hendry Winery, Napa, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Criley, C.

    2015-12-01

    Following the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, surface rupture was mapped along the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ) for a distance of ~ 14 km and locally within zones up to ~ 2 km wide. Near the northern end of the surface rupture, however, several strands coalesced to form a narrow, ~100-m-wide zone of surface rupture. To determine the location, width, and shallow (upper few hundred meters) geometry of the fault zone, we acquired an active-source seismic survey across the northern surface rupture in February 2015. We acquired both P- and S-wave data, from which we developed reflection images and tomographic images of Vp, Vs, Vp/Vs, and Poisson's ratio of the upper 100 m. We also used small explosive charges within surface ruptures located ~600 m north of our seismic array to record fault-zone guided waves. Our data indicate that at the latitude of the Hendry Winery, the WNFZ is characterized by at least five fault traces that are spaced 60 to 200 m apart. Zones of low-Vs, low-Vp/Vs, and disrupted reflectors highlight the fault traces on the tomography and reflection images. On peak-ground-velocity (PGV) plots, the most pronounced high-amplitude guided-wave seismic energy coincides precisely with the mapped surface ruptures, and the guided waves also show discrete high PGV zones associated with unmapped fault traces east of the surface ruptures. Although the surface ruptures of the WNFZ were observed only over a 100-m-wide zone at the Hendry Winery, our data indicate that the fault zone is at least 400 m wide, which is probably a minimum width given the 400-m length of our seismic profile. Slip on the WNFZ is generally considered to be low relative to most other Bay Area faults, but we suggest that the West Napa Fault is a zone of widely distributed shear, and to fully account for the total slip on the WNFZ, slip on all traces of this wide fault zone must be considered.

  2. Automatic picking of direct P, S seismic phases and fault zone head waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Z. E.; Ben-Zion, Y.

    2014-10-01

    We develop a set of algorithms for automatic detection and picking of direct P and S waves, as well as fault zone head waves (FZHW), generated by earthquakes on faults that separate different lithologies and recorded by local seismic networks. The S-wave picks are performed using polarization analysis and related filters to remove P-wave energy from the seismograms, and utilize STA/LTA and kurtosis detectors in tandem to lock on the phase arrival. The early portions of P waveforms are processed with STA/LTA, kurtosis and skewness detectors for possible first-arriving FZHW. Identification and picking of direct P and FZHW is performed by a multistage algorithm that accounts for basic characteristics (motion polarities, time difference, sharpness and amplitudes) of the two phases. The algorithm is shown to perform well on synthetic seismograms produced by a model with a velocity contrast across the fault, and observed data generated by earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault and the Hayward fault. The developed techniques can be used for systematic processing of large seismic waveform data sets recorded near major faults.

  3. Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone in Jamaica: paleoseismology and seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, R.D.; Mann, P.; Prentice, Carol S.; Brown, L.; Benford, B.; Grandison-Wiggins, M.

    2013-01-01

    The countries of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic all straddle the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone ( EPGFZ), a major left-lateral, strike-slip fault system bounding the Caribbean and North American plates. Past large earthquakes that destroyed the capital cities of Kingston, Jamaica (1692, 1907), and Port-au-Prince, Haiti (1751, 1770), as well as the 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people, have heightened awareness of seismic hazards in the northern Caribbean. We present here new geomorphic and paleoseismic information bearing on the location and relative activity of the EPGFZ, which marks the plate boundary in Jamaica. Documentation of a river bank exposure and several trenches indicate that this fault is active and has the potential to cause major destructive earthquakes in Jamaica. The results suggest that the fault has not ruptured the surface in at least 500 yr and possibly as long as 28 ka. The long period of quiescence and subdued geomorphic expression of the EPGFZ indicates that it may only accommodate part of the ∼7–9 mm=yr plate deformation rate measured geodetically and that slip may be partitioned on other undocumented faults. Large uncertainties related to the neotectonic framework of Jamaica remain and more detailed fault characterization studies are necessary to accurately assess seismic hazards.

  4. Seismic Velocity Structure across the Hayward Fault Zone Near San Leandro, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strayer, L. M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Richardson, I. S.; McEvilly, A.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Sickler, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    In Fall 2016 we conducted the East Bay Seismic Investigation, a NEHRP-funded collaboration between California State University, East Bay and the United State Geological Survey. The study produced a large volume of seismic data, allowing us to examine the subsurface across the East Bay plain and hills using a variety of geophysical methods. We know of no other survey performed in the past that has imaged this area, at this scale, and with this degree of resolution. Initial models show that seismic velocities of the Hayward Fault Zone (HFZ), the East Bay plain, and the East Bay hills are illuminated to depths of 5-6 km. We used explosive sources at 1-km intervals along a 15-km-long, NE-striking ( 055°), seismic line centered on the HFZ. Vertical- and horizontal-component sensors were spaced at 100 m intervals along the entire profile, with vertical-component sensors at 20 m intervals across mapped or suspected faults. Preliminary seismic refraction tomography across the HFZ, sensu lato, (includes sub-parallel, connected, and related faults), shows that the San Leandro Block (SLB) is a low-velocity feature in the upper 1-3 km, with nearly the same Vp as the adjacent Great Valley sediments to the east, and low Vs values. In our initial analysis we can trace the SLB and its bounding faults (Hayward, Chabot) nearly vertically, to at least 2-4 km depth. Similarly, preliminary migrated reflection images suggest that many if not all of the peripheral reverse, strike-slip and oblique-slip faults of the wider HFZ dip toward the SLB, into a curtain of relocated epicenters that define the HFZ at depth, indicative of a `flower-structure'. Preliminary Vs tomography identifies another apparently weak zone at depth, located about 1.5 km east of the San Leandro shoreline, that may represent the northward continuation of the Silver Creek Fault. Centered 4 km from the Bay, there is a distinctive, 2 km-wide, uplifted, horst-like, high-velocity structure (both Vp & Vs) that bounds the

  5. Detection of frictional heat in seismic faults by coal reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitamura, M.; Mukoyoshi, H.; Fulton, P. M.; Hirose, T.

    2012-12-01

    Quantitative assessment of heat generation along a fault during coseismic faulting is of primary importance in understanding the dynamics of earthquakes. Evidence of substantial frictional heating along a fault is also a reliable indicator determining whether a fault has slipped at high velocity in the past, which is crucial for assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard. The reflectance measurement of vitrinite (one of the primary components of coals) has been considered a possible geothermometer of fault zones, especially in accretionary wedges where vitrinite fragments are common [e.g., Sakaguchi et al., 2011]. Under normal burial conditions, vitrinite reflectance (Ro) increases by irreversible maturation reaction as temperature is elevated and thus sensitively records the maximum temperature to which the vitrinite is subjected. However, the commonly used kinetic models of vitrinite maturation [e.g., Sweeney and Burnham, 1990] may not yield accurate estimates of the peak temperature in a fault zone resulting from fast frictional heating rates [Fulton and Harris, 2012]. Whether or not coal can mature in typical earthquake rise time (e.g., ~10 seconds) remains uncertain. Here we present the results of friction experiments aimed at revealing coal maturation by frictional heat generated at slip velocities representative of natural earthquakes of up to 1.3 m/s. All friction experiments were conducted on a mixture of 90 wt% quartz powder and 10 wt% coal grains for simulated fault gouge at three different velocities of 0.0013 m/s, 0.65 m/s and 1.3 m/s, a constant normal stress of 1.0 MPa and ~15 m displacement under anoxic, dry nitrogen atmosphere at room temperature. We also measured temperature in the gouge zone during faulting by thermocouples. The initial coal fragments consist of vitrinite, inertinite and liptinite. Although liptinite was easy to identify microscopically, it was difficult to discriminate between vitrinite and inertinite grains as their grain size

  6. Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C

    2015-06-01

    An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  7. A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Á.; Gómez, J.B.; Vázquez-Prada, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual....... Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault...... models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized...

  8. Faults survey by 3D reflection seismics; Sanjigen hanshaho jishin tansa ni yoru danso chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsuchiya, T; Ejiri, T; Yamada, N; Narita, N; Aso, H; Takano, H; Matsumura, M [Dia Consultants Company, Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes fault survey by 3D seismic reflection exploration. Survey has been conducted mainly at flat land area without pavement not in urban area in Japan. Subsurface structure is complicated with intersecting multiple faults. In this area, a lot of geological investigations have been done prior to the seismic reflection exploration. Fairly certain images of faults have been obtained. However, there were still unknown structures. Survey was conducted at an area of 170m{times}280m in the CDP range. Measurements were carried out by using 100 g of dynamite per seismic generation point combined with 40 Hz velocity geophones. Fixed distribution consisting of lattice points of 12{times}12 was adopted as an observation method. In and around the lattice, a great number of explosions were carried out. The CDP stacking method and the method of migration after stacking were used for the data processing. The 3D structures of six horizons and five faults could be interpreted. Interpreted horizons were well agreed with the logging results. 3 figs.

  9. CAT: a computer code for the automated construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.; Salem, S.L.; Wu, J.S.

    1978-03-01

    A computer code, CAT (Computer Automated Tree, is presented which applies decision table methods to model the behavior of components for systematic construction of fault trees. The decision tables for some commonly encountered mechanical and electrical components are developed; two nuclear subsystems, a Containment Spray Recirculation System and a Consequence Limiting Control System, are analyzed to demonstrate the applications of CAT code

  10. Constructing constitutive relationships for seismic and aseismic fault slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beeler, N.M.

    2009-01-01

    For the purpose of modeling natural fault slip, a useful result from an experimental fault mechanics study would be a physically-based constitutive relation that well characterizes all the relevant observations. This report describes an approach for constructing such equations. Where possible the construction intends to identify or, at least, attribute physical processes and contact scale physics to the observations such that the resulting relations can be extrapolated in conditions and scale between the laboratory and the Earth. The approach is developed as an alternative but is based on Ruina (1983) and is illustrated initially by constructing a couple of relations from that study. In addition, two example constitutive relationships are constructed; these describe laboratory observations not well-modeled by Ruina's equations: the unexpected shear-induced weakening of silica-rich rocks at high slip speed (Goldsby and Tullis, 2002) and fault strength in the brittle ductile transition zone (Shimamoto, 1986). The examples, provided as illustration, may also be useful for quantitative modeling.

  11. Mineralogical compositions of fault rocks from surface ruptures of Wenchuan earthquake and implication of mineral transformation during the seismic cycle along Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, Sichuan Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Jiaxiang; Zhou, Yongsheng; He, Changrong; Ma, Shengli

    2018-06-01

    There are two co-seismic bedrock surface ruptures from the Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the northern and central parts of the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault, Sichuan Province, southwest China. In this study, we report on the macrostructure of the fault rocks and results from X-ray powder diffraction analysis of minerals from rocks in the fault zone. The most recent fault gouge (the gouge produced by the most recent co-seismic fault movement) in all the studied outcrops is dark or grayish-black, totally unconsolidated and ultrafine-grained. Older fault gouges in the same outcrops are grayish or yellowish and weakly consolidated. X-ray powder diffraction analysis results show that mineral assemblages in both the old fault gouge and the new fault gouge are more complicated than the mineral assemblages in the bedrock as the fault gouge is rich in clay minerals. The fault gouge inherited its major rock-forming minerals from the parent rocks, but the clay minerals in the fault gouge were generated in the fault zone and are therefore authigenic and synkinematic. In profiles across the fault, clay mineral abundances increase as one traverses from the bedrock to the breccia to the old gouge and from the old gouge to the new gouge. Quartz and illite are found in all collected gouge samples. The dominant clay minerals in the new fault gouge are illite and smectite along the northern part of the surface rupture and illite/smectite mixed-layer clay in the middle part of the rupture. Illite/smectite mixed-layer clay found in the middle part of the rupture indicates that fault slip was accompanied by K-rich fluid circulation. The existence of siderite, anhydrite, and barite in the northern part of the rupture suggests that fault slip at this locality was accompanied by acidic fluids containing ions of Fe, Ca, and Ba.

  12. Seismicity and Seismotectonic Properties of The Sultandağı Fault Zone (Afyonkarahisar-Konya): Western Anatolia,Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalafat, D.; Gunes, Y.; Kekovali, K.; Kara, M.; Gorgun, E.

    2017-12-01

    n this study we investigated seismicity and source characteristics of the Sultandağı Fault Zone (SFZ). As known Western Anatolia is one of the most important seismically active region in Turkey. The relative movement of the African-Arabian plates, it causes the Anatolian Plate to movement to the west-Southwest direction 2.5 cm per year and this result provides N-S direction with extensional regime in the recent tectonic. In this study, especially with the assessment of seismic activity occurring in Afyon and around between 200-2002 years, we have been evaluated to date with seismic activity as well as fault mechanism solution. We analyzed recent seismicity and distribution of earthquakes in this region. In the last century, 3 important earthquakes occurred in the Sultandağı Fault zone (Afyon-Akşehir Graben), this result shown it was seismic active and broken fault segments caused stress balance in the region and it caused to occur with short intervals of earthquakes in 2000 and 2002, triggering each other. The scope of this tudy, we installed new BB stations in the region and we have been done of the fault plane solutions for important earthquakes. The focal mechanisms clearly exhibit the activation of a NE-SW trending normal faulting system along the SFZ region. The results of stress analysis showed that the effective current tectonic evolution of normal faulting in this region. This study is supported by Bogazici University Research Projects Commission under SRP/BAP project No. 12280. Key Words: Sultandağı fault zone, normal faulting, seismicity, fault mechanism

  13. Seismic hazard of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in Haiti inferred from palaeoseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, C.S.; Mann, P.; Crone, A.J.; Gold, R.D.; Hudnut, K.W.; Briggs, R.W.; Koehler, R.D.; Jean, P.

    2010-01-01

    The Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone is recognized as one of the primary plate-bounding fault systems in Haiti. The strike-slip fault runs adjacent to the city of Port-au-Prince and was initially thought to be the source of the 12 January 2010, M w 7.0 earthquake. Haiti experienced significant earthquakes in 1751 and 1770 (refsA, 3, 4, 5), but the role of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone in these earthquakes is poorly known. We use satellite imagery, aerial photography, light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and field investigations to document Quaternary activity on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We report late Quaternary, left-lateral offsets of up to 160m, and a set of small offsets ranging from 1.3 to 3.3m that we associate with one of the eighteenth century earthquakes. The size of the small offsets implies that the historical earthquake was larger than M w 7.0, but probably smaller than M w 7.6. We found no significant surface rupture associated with the 2010 earthquake. The lack of surface rupture, coupled with other seismologic, geologic and geodetic observations, suggests that little, if any, accumulated strain was released on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in the 2010 earthquake. These results confirm that the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault remains a significant seismic hazard. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  14. An ordering heuristic for building Binary Decision Diagrams for fault-trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouissou, M. [Electricite de France (EDF), 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) have recently made a noticeable entry in the RAMS field. This kind of representation for boolean functions makes possible the assessment of complex fault-trees, both qualitatively (minimal cut-sets search) and quantitatively (exact calculation of top event probability). The object of the paper is to present a pre-processing of the fault-tree which ensures that the results given by different heuristics on the `optimized` fault-tree are not too sensitive to the way the tree is written. This property is based on a theoretical proof. In contrast with some well known heuristics, the method proposed is not based only on intuition and practical experiments. (author) 12 refs.

  15. An ordering heuristic for building Binary Decision Diagrams for fault-trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouissou, M.

    1997-01-01

    Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) have recently made a noticeable entry in the RAMS field. This kind of representation for boolean functions makes possible the assessment of complex fault-trees, both qualitatively (minimal cut-sets search) and quantitatively (exact calculation of top event probability). The object of the paper is to present a pre-processing of the fault-tree which ensures that the results given by different heuristics on the 'optimized' fault-tree are not too sensitive to the way the tree is written. This property is based on a theoretical proof. In contrast with some well known heuristics, the method proposed is not based only on intuition and practical experiments. (author)

  16. Geomorphic evidence of active faults growth in the Norcia seismic area (central Apennines, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Materazzi, Marco; Aringoli, Domenico; Farabollini, Piero; Giacopetti, Marco; Pambianchi, Gilberto; Tondi, Emanuele; Troiani, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Fault-growth by segment linkage is one of the fundamental processes controlling the evolution, in both time and the space, of fault systems. In fact, step-like trajectories shown by length-displacement diagrams for individual fault arrays suggest that the development of evolved structures result by the linkage of single fault segments. The type of interaction between faults and the rate at which faults reactivate not only control the long term tectonic evolution of an area, but also influence the seismic hazard, as earthquake recurrence intervals tend to decrease as fault slip rate increase. The use of Geomorphological investigations represents an important tool to constrain the latest history of active faults. In this case, attention has to be given to recognize morphostructural, historical, environmental features at the surface, since they record the long-term seismic behavior due to the fault growth processes (Tondi and Cello, 2003). The aim of this work is to investigate the long term morphotectonic evolution of a well know seismic area in the central Apennines: the Norcia intramontane basin (Aringoli et al., 2005). The activity of the Norcia seismic area is characterized by moderate events and by strong earthquakes with maximum intensities of X-XI degrees MCS and equivalent magnitudes around 6.5±7.0 (CPTI, 2004). Based on the morphostructural features as well as on the historical seismicity of the area, we may divide the Norcia seismic area into three minor basins roughly NW-SE oriented: the Preci sub-basin in the north; the S. Scolastica and the Castel S. Maria sub-basins in the south. The wider basin (S. Scolastica) is separated from the other two by ridges transversally oriented with respect the basins themselves; they are the geomorphological response to the tectonic deformation which characterizes the whole area. Other geomorphological evidences of tectonic activity are represented by deformation of old summit erosional surfaces, hydrographic network

  17. Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

    2014-05-01

    Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including

  18. Reflection seismic studies over the end-glacial Burträsk fault, Skellefteå, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Juhlin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Reflection seismic data were acquired along a ca. 22 km long profile over the end-glacial Burträsk fault with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. A steeply dipping reflection can be correlated to the Burträsk fault, indicating that the fault dips at about 55° to the southeast near the surface. The reflection from the fault is rather poorly imaged, probably due to a lateral offset in the fault of about 1 km at this location and the crookedness of the seismic profile in the vicinity of the fault. A more pronounced steeply dipping reflection is observed about 4 km southeast of the Burträsk fault. Based on its correlation with a topographic low at the surface this reflection is interpreted to originate from a fracture zone. There are no signs of large displacements along this zone as the glacial ice receded, but earthquakes could be associated with it today. Other reflections on the processed seismic section may originate from changes in lithological variations in the supra-crustal rocks or from intrusions of more mafic rock. Constraints on the fault geometry provided by the reflection seismic data will help determine what stresses were required to activate the fault when the major rupture along it occurred ca. 9500 years ago.

  19. Use of controlled dynamic impacts on hierarchically structured seismically hazardous faults for seismically safe relaxation of shear stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruzhich, Valery V.; Psakhie, Sergey G.; Levina, Elena A.; Shilko, Evgeny V.; Grigoriev, Alexandr S.

    2017-12-01

    In the paper we briefly outline the experience in forecasting catastrophic earthquakes and the general problems in ensuring seismic safety. The purpose of our long-term research is the development and improvement of the methods of man-caused impacts on large-scale fault segments to safely reduce the negative effect of seismodynamic failure. Various laboratory and large-scale field experiments were carried out in the segments of tectonic faults in Baikal rift zone and in main cracks in block-structured ice cove of Lake Baikal using the developed measuring systems and special software for identification and treatment of deformation response of faulty segments to man-caused impacts. The results of the study let us to ground the necessity of development of servo-controlled technologies, which are able to provide changing the shear resistance and deformation regime of fault zone segments by applying vibrational and pulse triggering impacts. We suppose that the use of triggering impacts in highly stressed segments of active faults will promote transferring the geodynamic state of these segments from a metastable to a more stable and safe state.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 4. System reliability and analysis techniques sessions B/C - event trees/fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.; Young, J.

    1985-08-01

    This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis

  1. Rolling bearing fault diagnosis using adaptive deep belief network with dual-tree complex wavelet packet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Haidong; Jiang, Hongkai; Wang, Fuan; Wang, Yanan

    2017-07-01

    Automatic and accurate identification of rolling bearing fault categories, especially for the fault severities and compound faults, is a challenge in rotating machinery fault diagnosis. For this purpose, a novel method called adaptive deep belief network (DBN) with dual-tree complex wavelet packet (DTCWPT) is developed in this paper. DTCWPT is used to preprocess the vibration signals to refine the fault characteristics information, and an original feature set is designed from each frequency-band signal of DTCWPT. An adaptive DBN is constructed to improve the convergence rate and identification accuracy with multiple stacked adaptive restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The proposed method is applied to the fault diagnosis of rolling bearings. The results confirm that the proposed method is more effective than the existing methods. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Application of Post-stack migration to seismic data associated with fault structures

    OpenAIRE

    Koduru Anitha; Mohanty P. R

    2015-01-01

    In hydrocarbon exploration, wave-equation migration techniques play an important role in imaging the complex geological structures. Usually, post-stack migration scheme is applied to the seismic data to improve the resolution with restoration of dipping reflectors to their true position. As a result, the migrated time sections are interpretable in terms of subsurface features. As a numerical study, three fault models are considered for the present study. First of all, ...

  3. Improving software requirements specification for safety-related systems using the fault tree developed by an object-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

    1998-01-01

    A modification of the fault tree analysis is presented. The new fault tree integrates structural and behavioral models of a system. Information on the system structure is captured in the name of each gate and basic event of the fault tree. Information on the system behavior is captured in their description. Behavior is expressed using the axiomatic notation based on first order predicate logic. The new fault tree is a useful model for analysis and improvement of software requirements specification. The benefit of such improvements is reduced probability of failures in specification, which in turn results in increased reliability of the software.(author)

  4. Evolution of Friction, Wear, and Seismic Radiation Along Experimental Bi-material Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, B. M.; Zu, X.; Shadoan, T.; Self, A.; Reches, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Faults are commonly composed by rocks of different lithologies and mechanical properties that are positioned against one another by fault slip; such faults are referred to as bimaterial-faults (BF). We investigate the mechanical behavior, wear production, and seismic radiation of BF via laboratory experiments on a rotary shear apparatus. In the experiments, two rock blocks of dissimilar or similar lithology are sheared against each other. We used contrasting rock pairs of a stiff, igneous block (diorite, granite, or gabbro) against a more compliant, sedimentary block (sandstone, limestone, or dolomite). The cylindrical blocks have a ring-shaped contact, and are loaded under conditions of constant normal stress and shear velocity. Fault behavior was monitored with stress, velocity and dilation sensors. Acoustic activity is monitored with four 3D accelerometers mounted at 2 cm distance from the experimental fault. These sensors can measure accelerations up to 500 g, and their full waveform output is recorded at 1MHz for periods up to 14 sec. Our preliminary results indicate that the bi-material nature of the fault has a strong affect on slip initiation, wear evolution, and acoustic emission activity. In terms of wear, we observe enhanced wear in experiments with a sandstone block sheared against a gabbro or limestone block. Experiments with a limestone or sandstone block produced distinct slickenline striations. Further, significant differences appeared in the number and amplitude of acoustic events depending on the bi-material setting and slip-distance. A gabbro-gabbro fault showed a decrease in both amplitude and number of acoustic events with increasing slip. Conversely, a gabbro-limestone fault showed a decrease in the number of events, but an increase in average event amplitude. Ongoing work focuses on advanced characterization of mechanical, dynamic weakening, and acoustic, frequency content, parameters.

  5. Staff technical position on investigations to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, K.I.; Blackford, M.E.; Ibrahim, A.K.

    1992-07-01

    The purpose of this Staff Technical Position (STP) is to provide guidance to the US Department of Energy (DOE) on acceptable geologic repository investigations that can be used to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards. ne staff considers that the approach this STP takes to investigations of fault displacement and seismic phenomena is appropriate for the collection of sufficient data for input to analyses of fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards, both for the preclosure and postclosure performance periods. However, detailed analyses of fault displacement and seismic data, such as those required for comprehensive assessments of repository performance, may identify the need for additional investigations. Section 2.0 of this STP describes the 10 CFR Part 60 requirements that form the basis for investigations to describe fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository. Technical position statements and corresponding discussions are presented in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, respectively. Technical position topics in this STP are categorized thusly: (1) investigation considerations, (2) investigations for fault-displacement hazards, and (3) investigations for seismic hazards

  6. GPS and seismic constraints on the M = 7.3 2009 Swan Islands earthquake: implications for stress changes along the Motagua fault and other nearby faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Shannon E.; DeMets, Charles; DeShon, Heather R.; Rogers, Robert; Maradiaga, Manuel Rodriguez; Strauch, Wilfried; Wiese, Klaus; Hernandez, Douglas

    2012-09-01

    We use measurements at 35 GPS stations in northern Central America and 25 seismometers at teleseismic distances to estimate the distribution of slip, source time function and Coulomb stress changes of the Mw = 7.3 2009 May 28, Swan Islands fault earthquake. This event, the largest in the region for several decades, ruptured the offshore continuation of the seismically hazardous Motagua fault of Guatemala, the site of the destructive Ms = 7.5 earthquake in 1976. Measured GPS offsets range from 308 millimetres at a campaign site in northern Honduras to 6 millimetres at five continuous sites in El Salvador. Separate inversions of geodetic and seismic data both indicate that up to ˜1 m of coseismic slip occurred along a ˜250-km-long rupture zone between the island of Roatan and the eastern limit of the 1976 M = 7.5 Motagua fault earthquake in Guatemala. Evidence for slip ˜250 km west of the epicentre is corroborated independently by aftershocks recorded by a local seismic network and by the high concentration of damage to structures in areas of northern Honduras adjacent to the western limit of the rupture zone. Coulomb stresses determined from the coseismic slip distribution resolve a maximum of 1 bar of stress transferred to the seismically hazardous Motagua fault and further indicate unclamping of normal faults along the northern shore of Honduras, where two M > 5 normal-faulting earthquakes and numerous small earthquakes were triggered by the main shock.

  7. Fault tree analysis of the manufacturing process of nuclear fuel containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian; Men Dechun; Sui Yuxue

    1998-08-01

    The nuclear fuel container consists of barrel body, bottom, cover, locking ring, rubber seal ring, and so on. It should be kept sealed in transportation and storage, so keeps the fuel contained from leakage. Its manufacturing process includes blanking, forming, seam welding, assembling, derusting and painting. The seam welding and assembling of barrel body and bottom are two key procedures, and the slope grinding, barrel body flaring and deep drawing of the bottom are important procedures. Faults in the manufacturing process of the nuclear fuel containers are investigated in details as for its quality requirements. A fault tree is established with products being unqualified as the top event. Five causes resulting in process faults are classified and analysed, and some measures are suggested for controlling different failures in manufacturing. More research work should be conducted in rules how to set up fault trees for manufacturing process

  8. Seismic properties of lawsonite eclogites from the southern Motagua fault zone, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daeyeong; Wallis, Simon; Endo, Shunsuke; Ree, Jin-Han

    2016-05-01

    We present new data on the crystal preferred orientation (CPO) and seismic properties of omphacite and lawsonite in extremely fresh eclogite from the southern Motagua fault zone, Guatemala, to discuss the seismic anisotropy of subducting oceanic crust. The CPO of omphacite is characterized by (010)[001], and it shows P-wave seismic anisotropies (AVP) of 1.4%-3.2% and S-wave seismic anisotropies (AVS) of 1.4%-2.7%. Lawsonite exhibits (001) planes parallel to the foliation and [010] axes parallel to the lineation, and seismic anisotropies of 1.7%-6.6% AVP and 3.4%-14.7% AVS. The seismic anisotropy of a rock mass consisting solely of omphacite and lawsonite is 1.2%-4.1% AVP and 1.8%-6.8% AVS. For events that propagate more or less parallel to the maximum extension direction, X, the fast S-wave velocity (VS) polarization is parallel to the Z in the Y-Z section (rotated from the X-Z section), causing trench-normal seismic anisotropy for orthogonal subduction. Based on the high modal abundance and strong fabric of lawsonite, the AVS of eclogites is estimated as ~ 11.7% in the case that lawsonite makes up ~ 75% of the rock mass. On this basis, we suggest that lawsonite in both blueschist and eclogite may play important roles in the formation of complex pattern of seismic anisotropy observed in NE Japan: weak trench-parallel anisotropy in the forearc basin domains and trench-normal anisotropy in the backarc region.

  9. Fault tree analysis of loss of cooling to a HALW storage tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Yasushi

    1992-01-01

    Results of a scenario identification, a fault tree construction and an analysis for a loss of cooling accident in a High Activity Liquid Waste (HALW) tank of a typical model of reprocessing facility, is rendered together with considerations of the system reliability improvement by changing the model design. Model plant data, basic failure frequency data and a fault tree analysis named FTL have been introduced from NUKEM GmbH, Germany. They are throughly reviewed and reevaluated at JAERI, and improved to apply to Japanese facilities. A general systematic method for constructing fault trees is used to avoid missing scenarios, thus all of the 10 conceivable accident scenarios for 'HALW storage tank without cooling, HALW boiling' are identified, and a total failure frequency are calculated to be in the 90 % confidence interval of (1.1 ∼ 5.8) x 10 -6 /yr for the German model plant. (author)

  10. Fault Tree Analysis for an Inspection Robot in a Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Thomas A.; Lu, Lixuan

    2017-09-01

    The life extension of current nuclear reactors has led to an increasing demand on inspection and maintenance of critical reactor components that are too expensive to replace. To reduce the exposure dosage to workers, robotics have become an attractive alternative as a preventative safety tool in nuclear power plants. It is crucial to understand the reliability of these robots in order to increase the veracity and confidence of their results. This study presents the Fault Tree (FT) analysis to a coolant outlet piper snake-arm inspection robot in a nuclear power plant. Fault trees were constructed for a qualitative analysis to determine the reliability of the robot. Insight on the applicability of fault tree methods for inspection robotics in the nuclear industry is gained through this investigation.

  11. Hypothesis for the mechanics and seismic behaviour of low-angle normal faults: the example of the Altotiberina fault Northern Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Collettini

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Widespread mapping of low-angle normal faults in areas of former continental extension continues to prompt debate as to whether such structures may be seismically active at very low dips (? <30 °in the upper continental crust.The Northern Apennines provide an example where an active low-angle normal fault (Altotiberina fault, ATFcan be studied.A set of commercial seismic reflection profiles plus deep boreholes have been used to constrain the geometry of the fault at depth.These data have been integrated with a microseismic survey showing that part of the microseismicity (M <3.0is consistent with the geometry of the ATF as imaged by depth converted seismic reflection profiles.Frictional fault mechanics under Byerlee ?s friction coefficient and vertical ? 1 (constrained from the inversion of the focal mechanismsdefines the peculiar condition for reactivation of the ATF:small values of differential stress,? 1 ?? 3 <28 MPa,relatively high value of tensile strength of the fault surrounding rocks (T ~10 MPaand tensile fluid overpressure P f >? 3 (i.e.? v >0.93.The short-lived attainment of P f >? 3 along small fault portions,in an area characterised by large amounts of CO2,account for the microseismic activity located along the ATF,which occurs on rupture surfaces in the range of 10 ??10 ? 3 km 2..

  12. An integrated geodetic and seismic study of the Cusco Fault system in the Cusco Region-Southern Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norabuena, E. O.; Tavera, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Cusco Fault system is composed by six main faults (Zurite, Tamboray, Qoricocha, Tambomachay, Pachatusan, and Urcos) extending in a NW-SE direction over the Cusco Region in southeastern Peru. From these, the Tambomachay is a normal fault of 20 km length, strikes N120°E and bounds a basin filled with quaternary lacustrine and fluvial deposits. Given its 5 km distance to Cusco, an historical and Inca's archeological landmark, it represents a great seismic hazard for its more than 350,000 inhabitants. The Tambomachay fault as well as the other secondary faults have been a source of significant seismic activity since historical times being the more damaging ones the Cusco earthquakes of 1650, 1950 and more recently April 1986 (M 5.8). Previous geological studies indicate that at the beginning of the Quaternary the fault showed a transcurrent mechanism leading to the formation of the Cusco basin. However, nowadays its mechanism is normal fault and scarps up to 22m can be observed. We report the current dynamics of the Tambomachay fault and secondary faults based on seismic activity imaged by a network of 29 broadband stations deployed in the Cusco Region as well as the deformation field inferred from GPS survey measurements carried out between 2014 and 2016.

  13. Transforming incomplete fault tree to Ishikawa diagram as an alternative method for technology transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzias, Dimitris F.

    2012-12-01

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) can be used for technology transfer when the relevant problem (called 'top even' in FTA) is solved in a technology centre and the results are diffused to interested parties (usually Small Medium Enterprises - SMEs) that have not the proper equipment and the required know-how to solve the problem by their own. Nevertheless, there is a significant drawback in this procedure: the information usually provided by the SMEs to the technology centre, about production conditions and corresponding quality characteristics of the product, and (sometimes) the relevant expertise in the Knowledge Base of this centre may be inadequate to form a complete fault tree. Since such cases are quite frequent in practice, we have developed a methodology for transforming incomplete fault tree to Ishikawa diagram, which is more flexible and less strict in establishing causal chains, because it uses a surface phenomenological level with a limited number of categories of faults. On the other hand, such an Ishikawa diagram can be extended to simulate a fault tree as relevant knowledge increases. An implementation of this transformation, referring to anodization of aluminium, is presented.

  14. Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

    1992-01-01

    The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

  15. Reliability database development for use with an object-oriented fault tree evaluation program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heger, A. Sharif; Harringtton, Robert J.; Koen, Billy V.; Patterson-Hine, F. Ann

    1989-01-01

    A description is given of the development of a fault-tree analysis method using object-oriented programming. In addition, the authors discuss the programs that have been developed or are under development to connect a fault-tree analysis routine to a reliability database. To assess the performance of the routines, a relational database simulating one of the nuclear power industry databases has been constructed. For a realistic assessment of the results of this project, the use of one of existing nuclear power reliability databases is planned.

  16. Shallow Seismic Reflection Study of Recently Active Fault Scarps, Mina Deflection, Western Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, R. A.; Christie, M.; Tsoflias, G. P.; Stockli, D. F.

    2006-12-01

    During the spring and summer of 2006 University of Kansas geophysics students and faculty acquired shallow, high resolution seismic reflection data over actively deforming alluvial fans developing across the Emmigrant Peak (in Fish Lake Valley) and Queen Valley Faults in western Nevada. These normal faults represent a portion of the transition from the right-lateral deformation associated with the Walker Lane/Eastern California Shear Zone to the normal and left-lateral faulting of the Mina Deflection. Data were gathered over areas of recent high resolution geological mapping and limited trenching by KU students. An extensive GPR data grid was also acquired. The GPR results are reported in Christie, et al., 2006. The seismic data gathered in the spring included both walkaway tests and a short CMP test line. These data indicated that a very near-surface P-wave to S-wave conversion was taking place and that very high quality S-wave reflections were probably dominating shot records to over one second in time. CMP lines acquired during the summer utilized a 144 channel networked Geode system, single 28 hz geophones, and a 30.06 downhole rifle source. Receiver spacing was 0.5 m, source spacing 1.0m and CMP bin spacings were 0.25m for all lines. Surveying was performed using an RTK system which was also used to develop a concurrent high resolution DEM. A dip line of over 400m and a strike line over 100m in length were shot across the active fan scarp in Fish Lake Valley. Data processing is still underway. However, preliminary interpretation of common-offset gathers and brute stacks indicates very complex faulting and detailed stratigraphic information to depths of over 125m. Depth of information was actually limited by the 1024ms recording time. Several west-dipping normal faults downstep towards the basin. East-dipping antithetic normal faulting is extensive. Several distinctive stratigraphic packages are bound by the faults and apparent unconformitites. A CMP dip line

  17. A Weibull-based compositional approach for hierarchical dynamic fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiacchio, F.; Cacioppo, M.; D'Urso, D.; Manno, G.; Trapani, N.; Compagno, L.

    2013-01-01

    The solution of a dynamic fault tree (DFT) for the reliability assessment can be achieved using a wide variety of techniques. These techniques have a strong theoretical foundation as both the analytical and the simulation methods have been extensively developed. Nevertheless, they all present the same limits that appear with the increasing of the size of the fault trees (i.e., state space explosion, time-consuming simulations), compromising the resolution. We have tested the feasibility of a composition algorithm based on a Weibull distribution, addressed to the resolution of a general class of dynamic fault trees characterized by non-repairable basic events and generally distributed failure times. The proposed composition algorithm is used to generalize the traditional hierarchical technique that, as previous literature have extensively confirmed, is able to reduce the computational effort of a large DFT through the modularization of independent parts of the tree. The results of this study are achieved both through simulation and analytical techniques, thus confirming the capability to solve a quite general class of dynamic fault trees and overcome the limits of traditional techniques.

  18. Decision table development and application to the construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, S.L.; Wu, J.S.; Apostolakis, G.

    1979-01-01

    A systematic methodology for the construction of fault trees based on the use of decision tables has been developed. These tables are used to describe each possible output state of a component as a set of combinations of states of inputs and internal operational or T states. Two methods for modeling component behavior via decision tables have been developed, one inductive and one deductive. These methods are useful for creating decision tables that realistically model the operational and failure modes of electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components as well as human interactions inhibit conditions and common-cause events. A computer code CAT (Computer Automated Tree) has been developed to automatically produce fault trees from decision tables. A simple electrical system was chosen to illustrate the basic features of the decision table approach and to provide an example of an actual fault tree produced by this code. This example demonstrates the potential utility of such an automated approach to fault tree construction once a basic set of general decision tables has been developed

  19. Reliability Analysis of Operation for Cableways by FTA (Fault Tree Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergej Težak

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the reliability of the operation of cableway systems in Slovenia, which has major impact on the quality of service in the mountain tourism, mainly in wintertime. Different types of cableway installations in Slovenia were captured in a sample and fault tree analysis (FTA was made on the basis of the obtained data. The paper presents the results of the analysis. With these results it is possible to determine the probability of faults of different types of cableways, which types of faults have the greatest impact on the termination of operation, which components of cableways fail most, what is the impact of age of cableways on the occurrence of the faults. Finally, an attempt was made to find if occurrence of faults on individual cableway installation has also impact on traffic on this cableway due to reduced quality of service. KEYWORDS: cableways, aerial ropeways, chairlifts, ski-tows, quality, faults, fault tree analysis, reliability, service quality, winter tourism, mountain tourist centre

  20. Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y.

    2013-07-01

    provide the best agreement with independently observed focal mechanisms. Tests on synthetic catalogues allow qualification of the performance of the fitting method and of the various validation procedures. The ACLUD method is able to provide solutions that are close to the expected ones, especially for the BIC and focal mechanism-based techniques. The clustering method complemented by the validation step based on focal mechanisms provides good solutions even in the presence of a significant spatial background seismicity rate. As the new clustering method is able to deal with most of the information contained in modern earthquake catalogues, the geometry of the local station network may improve or alter the reconstruction of the underlying fault system. This is illustrated by using the highest-quality data selected using station network criteria which results in reconstructed fault planes of higher quality and accuracy. Using lower-quality data can lead to unstable and unreliable fault networks and may introduce artefacts, in particular in regions of a complex fault structure. The results highlight the need to carefully assess the quality and reliability of reconstructed fault networks from real data that unavoidably involve the clustering of data of heterogeneous quality. Based on realistic tests with synthetic fault network structures, the results also stress the importance of accounting for under-sampled sub-fault structures as well as for spatially-inhomogeneous location uncertainties. The fault reconstruction method is applied to two real datasets at two very different spatial scales, i.e. the 1992 Landers M7 earthquake sequence in Southern California, and the Basel (Switzerland) induced seismicity sequence. In both case studies, fault network results reasonably compare with independent structural analysis data, suggesting highly complex fault structures for both, at the scale of the Landers earthquake covering a volume of about 70,000 km{sup 3} and in the volume of

  1. The constant failure rate model for fault tree evaluation as a tool for unit protection reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vichev, S.; Bogdanov, D.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce the fault tree analysis method as a tool for unit protection reliability estimation. The constant failure rate model applies for making reliability assessment, and especially availability assessment. For that purpose an example for unit primary equipment structure and fault tree example for simplified unit protection system is presented (author)

  2. Shallow Faulting in Morelia, Mexico, Based on Seismic Tomography and Geodetically Detected Land Subsidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Vergara-Huerta, F.; Chaussard, E.; Wdowinski, S.; DeMets, C.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.

    2013-12-01

    Subsidence has been a common occurrence in several cities in central Mexico for the past three decades. This process causes substantial damage to the urban infrastructure and housing in several cities and it is a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land-use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies. Since the early 1980's the city of Morelia in Central Mexico has experienced subsidence associated with groundwater extraction in excess of natural recharge from rainfall. Previous works have focused on the detection and temporal evolution of the subsidence spatial distribution. The most recent InSAR analysis confirms the permanence of previously detected rapidly subsiding areas such as the Rio Grande Meander area and also defines 2 subsidence patches previously undetected in the newly developed suburban sectors west of Morelia at the Fraccionamiento Del Bosque along, south of Hwy. 15 and another patch located north of Morelia along Gabino Castañeda del Rio Ave. Because subsidence-induced, shallow faulting develops at high horizontal strain localization, newly developed a subsidence areas are particularly prone to faulting and fissuring. Shallow faulting increases groundwater vulnerability because it disrupts discharge hydraulic infrastructure and creates a direct path for transport of surface pollutants into the underlying aquifer. Other sectors in Morelia that have been experiencing subsidence for longer time have already developed well defined faults such as La Colina, Central Camionera, Torremolinos and La Paloma faults. Local construction codes in the vicinity of these faults define a very narrow swath along which housing construction is not allowed. In order to better characterize these fault systems and provide better criteria for future municipal construction codes we have surveyed the La Colina and Torremolinos fault systems in the western sector of Morelia using seismic tomographic techniques. Our results indicate that La Colina Fault

  3. Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, L.; Frehner, M.; Sauer, K. M.; Toy, V.; Guerin-Marthe, S.; Boulton, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonitesLudmila Adam1, Marcel Frehner2, Katrina Sauer3, Virginia Toy3, Simon Guerin-Marthe4, Carolyn Boulton5(1) University of Auckland, New Zealand, (2) ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (3) University of Otago, New Zealand (4) Durham University, Earth Sciences, United Kingdom (5) Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Quartzo-feldspathic mylonites and schists are the main contributors to seismic wave anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault (New Zealand). We must determine how the physical properties of rocks like these influence elastic wave anisotropy if we want to unravel both the reasons for heterogeneous seismic wave propagation, and interpret deformation processes in fault zones. To study such controls on velocity anisotropy we can: 1) experimentally measure elastic wave anisotropy on cores at in-situ conditions or 2) estimate wave velocities by static (effective medium averaging) or dynamic (finite element) modelling based on EBSD data or photomicrographs. Here we compare all three approaches in study of schist and mylonite samples from the Alpine Fault. Volumetric proportions of intrinsically anisotropic micas in cleavage domains and comparatively isotropic quartz+feldspar in microlithons commonly vary significantly within one sample. Our analysis examines the effects of these phases and their arrangement, and further addresses how heterogeneity influences elastic wave anisotropy. We compare P-wave seismic anisotropy estimates based on millimetres-scale ultrasonic waves under in situ conditions, with simulations that account for micrometre-scale variations in elastic properties of constitutent minerals with the MTEX toolbox and finite-element wave propagation on EBSD images. We observe that the sorts of variations in the distribution of micas and quartz+feldspar within any one of our real core samples can change the elastic wave anisotropy by 10

  4. RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Kendra L.; Hayes, Gavin; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Bergman, Eric A.

    2016-01-01

    Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained

  5. Direct evaluation of fault trees using object-oriented programming techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

    1989-01-01

    Object-oriented programming techniques are used in an algorithm for the direct evaluation of fault trees. The algorithm combines a simple bottom-up procedure for trees without repeated events with a top-down recursive procedure for trees with repeated events. The object-oriented approach results in a dynamic modularization of the tree at each step in the reduction process. The algorithm reduces the number of recursive calls required to solve trees with repeated events and calculates intermediate results as well as the solution of the top event. The intermediate results can be reused if part of the tree is modified. An example is presented in which the results of the algorithm implemented with conventional techniques are compared to those of the object-oriented approach.

  6. Event and fault tree model for reliability analysis of the greek research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albuquerque, Tob R.; Guimaraes, Antonio C.F.; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes

    2013-01-01

    Fault trees and event trees are widely used in industry to model and to evaluate the reliability of safety systems. Detailed analyzes in nuclear installations require the combination of these two techniques. This work uses the methods of fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) to perform the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in research reactors. The PSA according to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is divided into Level 1, Level 2 and level 3. At Level 1, conceptually safety systems act to prevent the accident, at Level 2, the accident occurred and seeks to minimize the consequences, known as stage management of the accident, and at Level 3 are determined consequences. This paper focuses on Level 1 studies, and searches through the acquisition of knowledge consolidation of methodologies for future reliability studies. The Greek Research Reactor, GRR - 1, was used as a case example. The LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) was chosen as the initiating event and from there were developed the possible accident sequences, using event tree, which could lead damage to the core. Furthermore, for each of the affected systems, the possible accidents sequences were made fault tree and evaluated the probability of each event top of the FT. The studies were conducted using a commercial computational tool SAPHIRE. The results thus obtained, performance or failure to act of the systems analyzed were considered satisfactory. This work is directed to the Greek Research Reactor due to data availability. (author)

  7. Event and fault tree model for reliability analysis of the greek research reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albuquerque, Tob R.; Guimaraes, Antonio C.F.; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes, E-mail: atalbuquerque@ien.gov.br, E-mail: btony@ien.gov.br, E-mail: malu@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Fault trees and event trees are widely used in industry to model and to evaluate the reliability of safety systems. Detailed analyzes in nuclear installations require the combination of these two techniques. This work uses the methods of fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) to perform the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in research reactors. The PSA according to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is divided into Level 1, Level 2 and level 3. At Level 1, conceptually safety systems act to prevent the accident, at Level 2, the accident occurred and seeks to minimize the consequences, known as stage management of the accident, and at Level 3 are determined consequences. This paper focuses on Level 1 studies, and searches through the acquisition of knowledge consolidation of methodologies for future reliability studies. The Greek Research Reactor, GRR - 1, was used as a case example. The LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) was chosen as the initiating event and from there were developed the possible accident sequences, using event tree, which could lead damage to the core. Furthermore, for each of the affected systems, the possible accidents sequences were made fault tree and evaluated the probability of each event top of the FT. The studies were conducted using a commercial computational tool SAPHIRE. The results thus obtained, performance or failure to act of the systems analyzed were considered satisfactory. This work is directed to the Greek Research Reactor due to data availability. (author)

  8. Non double couple seismic sources, faults interaction and hypothesis of self-organized criticality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yunga

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Non double couple (NDC sources are considered in framework of the hypothesis that the process of seismic rupture can be viewed as a result of complicated fault geometry and its segmentation. Analytical approach is found to reveal reliability of NDC measure taking into consideration the values of seismic moment tensor errors. The study focuses on the comparison of the deformation modes of the NDC sources with the stress states in its vicinity. The deformation modes of faulting and fracturing at a small scale in NDC earthquake focus and at regional scale in geological unit were investigated using at the last case summation of seismic moment tensors. These local and regional deformation modes in some of geodynamic regimes confirm the self-similarity assumption. For the whole data set scaling relations seem to be more complicated. This feature implies that besides stresses second order factors, as the hydrothermal or magmatic pore fluids in rock, influence source characteristics and bring new complications in scaling relations.

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the two layer fault system of Antalya (SW Turkey) area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dipova, Nihat; Cangir, Bülent

    2017-09-01

    Southwest Turkey, along Mediterranean coast, is prone to large earthquakes resulting from subduction of the African plate under the Eurasian plate and shallow crustal faults. Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw = 6.5 whereas that of crustal earthquakes is Mw = 6.6. Crustal earthquakes are sourced from faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. The primary goal of this study is to assess seismic hazard for Antalya area (SW Turkey) using a probabilistic approach. A new earthquake catalog for Antalya area, with unified moment magnitude scale, was prepared in the scope of the study. Seismicity of the area has been evaluated by the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. For hazard computation, CRISIS2007 software was used following the standard Cornell-McGuire methodology. Attenuation model developed by Youngs et al. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):58-73, (1997) was used for deep subduction earthquakes and Chiou and Youngs Earthq Spectra 24(1):173-215, (2008) model was used for shallow crustal earthquakes. A seismic hazard map was developed for peak ground acceleration and for rock ground with a hazard level of a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Results of the study show that peak ground acceleration values on bedrock change between 0.215 and 0.23 g in the center of Antalya.

  10. Triggered Seismicity in Utah from the November 3, 2002, Denali Fault Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankow, K. L.; Nava, S. J.; Pechmann, J. C.; Arabasz, W. J.

    2002-12-01

    Coincident with the arrival of the surface waves from the November 3, 2002, Mw 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska earthquake (DFE), the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) regional seismic network detected a marked increase in seismicity along the Intermountain Seismic Belt (ISB) in central and north-central Utah. The number of earthquakes per day in Utah located automatically by the UUSS's Earthworm system in the week following the DFE was approximately double the long-term average during the preceding nine months. From these preliminary data, the increased seismicity appears to be characterized by small magnitude events (M = 3.2) and concentrated in five distinct spatial clusters within the ISB between 38.75°and 42.0° N. The first of these earthquakes was an M 2.2 event located ~20 km east of Salt Lake City, Utah, which occurred during the arrival of the Love waves from the DFE. The increase in Utah earthquake activity at the time of the arrival of the surface waves from the DFE suggests that these surface waves triggered earthquakes in Utah at distances of more than 3,000 km from the source. We estimated the peak dynamic shear stress caused by these surface waves from measurements of their peak vector velocities at 43 recording sites: 37 strong-motion stations of the Advanced National Seismic System and six broadband stations. (The records from six other broadband instruments in the region of interest were clipped.) The estimated peak stresses ranged from 1.2 bars to 3.5 bars with a mean of 2.3 bars, and generally occurred during the arrival of Love waves of ~15 sec period. These peak dynamic shear stress estimates are comparable to those obtained from recordings of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake in regions where the Landers earthquake triggered increased seismicity. We plan to present more complete analyses of UUSS seismic network data, further testing our hypothesis that the DFE remotely triggered seismicity in Utah. This hypothesis is

  11. Interseismic Coupling and Seismic Potential along the Indo-Burmese Arc and the Sagaing fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnest, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Indo-burmese arc is formed by the oblique subduction of the Indian plate under the Eurasia. This region is a transition zone between the main Himalayan collision belt and the Andaman subduction zone. This obliquity causes strain partitioning which causes separation of a sliver plate, the Burma Plate. Considering the geomorphic, tectonic and geophysical signatures, IBR comprises all the structural features of an active subduction zone, whereas the present day tectonics of this region is perplexing. Ni et al. [1989] and Rao and Kalpana [2005] suggested that the subduction might have stopped in recent times or continues relatively in an aseismic fashion. This is implied by the NNE compressional stress orientations, instead of its downdip direction. The focal mechanism stress inversions show distinct stress fields above and below the 90 km depth. It is widely believed that the partitioning of Indian-Eurasia plate motion along the Indo-buremse arc and the Sagaing fault region the reason for earthquake occurrence in this region. The relative motion of 36mm/yr, between India and Eurasia, is partitioned across the Sagaing fault through a dextral movement of ˜20mm/yr and remaining velocity is accommodated at the Churachandapur-Mao fault (CMF) through dextral motion. The CMF and its surroundings are considered as seismically a low hazard region, an observation made from the absence of significant earthquakes and lack of field evidences. This made Kundu and Gahalaut [2013] to propose that the motion across the CMF happens in an aseismic manner. Recently, based on GPS studies Steckler et al. [2016] suggested that the region is still actively subducting and the presence of a locked megathrust plate boundary depicts the region as highly vulnerable for large magnitude seismic activities. Our study, based on various geodetic solutions and earthquake slip vectors, focus on interseisimic block models for the Indo-burmese arc and Sagaing fault region so as to model the crustal

  12. Structure of Suasselkä Postglacial Fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of ambient seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena

    2016-04-01

    Understanding inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä post-glacial fault (SPGF) that was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised the area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of 8 short-period and 4 broad-band 3-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September, 2011-May, 2013. Recordings of the array have being analyzed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä Gold Mine. As a result, we found several dozens of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate correspondent surface wave dispersion curves. After that S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curves inversion using Geopsy software. The results suggest that the area of

  13. Rich Interfaces for Dependability: Compositional Methods for Dynamic Fault Trees and Arcade models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Crouzen, Pepijn; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Kuntz, G.W.M.; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper discusses two behavioural interfaces for reliability analysis: dynamic fault trees, which model the system reliability in terms of the reliability of its components and Arcade, which models the system reliability at an architectural level. For both formalisms, the reliability is analyzed

  14. Fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis of a digital safety function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maskuniitty, M.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1995-01-01

    The principles of fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for the analysis of digital safety functions of nuclear power plants are discussed. Based on experiences from a case study, a proposal for a full scale analysis is presented. The feasibility and applicability the above mentioned reliability engineering methods are discussed. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  15. On the use of non-coherent fault trees in safety and security studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contini, S.; Cojazzi, G.G.M.; Renda, G.

    2008-01-01

    This paper gives some insights on the usefulness of non-coherent fault trees in system modelling from both the point of view of safety and security. A safety-related system can evolve from the working states to failed states through degraded states, i.e. working state, but in a degraded mode. In practical applications the degraded states may be of particular interest due e.g. to the associated risk increase or the different types of consequent actions. The top events definitions of such states contain the working conditions of some sub-systems/components. How the use of non-coherent fault trees can greatly simplify both the modelling and quantification of these states is shown in this paper. Some considerations about the interpretation of the importance indexes of negated basic events are also briefly described. When dealing with security applications, there is a need to cope not only with stochastic events, such as component failures and human errors, but also with deliberate intentional actions, whose successes might be characterised by high probability values. Different mutually exclusive attack scenarios may be envisaged for a given system. Hence, the essential feature of a fault tree analyser is the capability to determine the exact value of the top event probability containing mutually exclusive events. It is also shown that in these cases the use of non-coherent fault trees allows solving the problem with limited effort

  16. Making systems with mutually exclusive events analysable by standard fault tree analysis tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    Methods are developed for analysing systems that comprise mutually exclusive events by fault tree techniques that accept only statistically independent basic events. Techniques based on equivalent models and numerical transformations are presented for phased missions and for systems with component-caused system-level common cause failures. Numerical examples illustrate the methods

  17. A Rigorous, Compositional, and Extensible Framework for Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Sandhu, R.; Crouzen, Pepijn; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Fault trees (FT) are among the most prominent formalisms for reliability analysis of technical systems. Dynamic FTs extend FTs with support for expressing dynamic dependencies among components. The standard analysis vehicle for DFTs is state-based, and treats the model as a CTMC, a continuous-time

  18. Criteria for evaluating protection from single points of failure for partially expanded fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aswani, D.; Badreddine, B.; Malone, M.; Gauthier, G.; Proietty, J.

    2008-01-01

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a technique that describes the combinations of events in a system which result in an undesirable outcome. FTA is used as a tool to quantitatively assess a system's probability for an undesirable outcome. Time constraints from concept to production in modern engineering often limit the opportunity for a thorough statistical analysis of a system. Furthermore, when undesirable outcomes are considered such as hazard to human(s), it becomes difficult to identify strict statistical targets for what is acceptable. Consequently, when hazard to human(s) is concerned a common design target is to protect the system from single points of failure (SPOF) which means that no failure mode caused by a single event, concern, or error has a critical consequence on the system. Such a design target is common with 'by-wire' systems. FTA can be used to verify if a system is protected from SPOF. In this paper, sufficient criteria for evaluating protection from SPOF for partially expanded fault trees are proposed along with proof. The proposed criteria consider potential interactions between the lowest drawn events of a partial fault tree expansion which otherwise easily leads to an overly optimistic analysis of protection from SPOF. The analysis is limited to fault trees that are coherent and static

  19. Pre-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Fault Slip in the Northern Chile Seismic Gap Associated with the April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, M.; Duputel, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J. F.; Jiang, J.; Jolivet, R.; Kanamori, H.; Moore, A. W.; Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Owen, S. E.; Riel, B. V.; Rivera, L. A.; Carrizo, D.; Cotte, N.; Jara, J.; Klotz, J.; Norabuena, E. O.; Ortega, I.; Socquet, A.; Samsonov, S. V.; Valderas Bermejo, M.

    2014-12-01

    The April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake occurred in Northern Chile, within a long recognized seismic gap in the Central Andean region that last experienced major megathrust events in 1868 and 1877. We built a continuous GPS network starting in 2005, with the ultimate goal of understanding the kinematics and dynamics of this portion of the subduction zone. Using observations from this network, as well as others in the region, combined with InSAR, seismic and tsunami observations, we obtain estimates of inter-seismic, co-seismic and initial post-seismic fault slip using an internally consistent Bayesian unregularized approach. We evaluate the extent of spatial overlap between regions of fault slip during this different time periods. Of particular interest to this event is the extent and nature of any geodetic evidence for transient slow fault slip preceding the Pisagua Earthquake mainshock. To this end, we compare daily and high rate GPS solutions, the former of which shows long period transient motion started about 15 days before the mainshock and with maximum registered amplitude of 14.2 +/- 2 [mm] at site PSGA. Contrary to published findings, we find that pre-seismic deformation seen by the GPS network can be explained as coseismic motion associated with the multiple foreshocks.

  20. Application of Fault Tree Analysis for Estimating Temperature Alarm Circuit Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, A.I.; El-Shanshoury, G.I.

    2011-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the most widely-used methods in system reliability analysis. It is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an undesirable outcome. The presented paper deals with the application of FTA method in analyzing temperature alarm circuit. The criticality failure of this circuit comes from failing to alarm when temperature exceeds a certain limit. In order for a circuit to be safe, a detailed analysis of the faults causing circuit failure is performed by configuring fault tree diagram (qualitative analysis). Calculations of circuit quantitative reliability parameters such as Failure Rate (FR) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) are also done by using Relex 2009 computer program. Benefits of FTA are assessing system reliability or safety during operation, improving understanding of the system, and identifying root causes of equipment failures

  1. Fault tree construction of hybrid system requirements using qualitative formal method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jang-Soo; Cha, Sung-Deok

    2005-01-01

    When specifying requirements for software controlling hybrid systems and conducting safety analysis, engineers experience that requirements are often known only in qualitative terms and that existing fault tree analysis techniques provide little guidance on formulating and evaluating potential failure modes. In this paper, we propose Causal Requirements Safety Analysis (CRSA) as a technique to qualitatively evaluate causal relationship between software faults and physical hazards. This technique, extending qualitative formal method process and utilizing information captured in the state trajectory, provides specific guidelines on how to identify failure modes and relationship among them. Using a simplified electrical power system as an example, we describe step-by-step procedures of conducting CRSA. Our experience of applying CRSA to perform fault tree analysis on requirements for the Wolsong nuclear power plant shutdown system indicates that CRSA is an effective technique in assisting safety engineers

  2. System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

    2018-05-01

    In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

  3. High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko

    2016-10-01

    We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

  4. Regional Characteristics of Stress State of Main Seismic Active Faults in Mid-Northern Part of Sichuan-Yunnan Block

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiwei, W.; Yaling, W.

    2017-12-01

    We restore the seismic source spectrums of 1012 earthquakes(2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.0) in the mid-northern part of Sichuan-Yunnan seismic block(26 ° N-33 ° N, 99 ° E-104 ° E),then calculate the source parameters.Based on the regional seismic tectonic background, the distribution of active faults and seismicity, the study area is divided into four statistical units (Z1 Jinshajiang and Litang fault zone, Z2 Xianshuihe fault zone, Z3 Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, Z4 Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault zone). Seismic source stress drop results show the following, (1)The stress at the end of the Jinshajiang fault is low, strong earthquake activity rare.Stress-strain loading deceases gradually from northwest to southeast along Litang fault, the northwest section which is relatively locked is more likely to accumulate strain than southeast section. (2)Stress drop of Z2 is divided by Kangding, the southern section is low and northern section is high. Southern section (Kangding-Shimian) is difficult to accumulate higher strain in the short term, but in northern section (Garzê-Kangding), moderate and strong earthquakes have not filled the gaps of seismic moment release, there is still a high stress accumulation in partial section. (3)High stress-drop events were concentrated on Z3, strain accumulation of this unit is strong, and stress level is the highest, earthquake risk is high. (4)On Z4, stress drop characteristics of different magnitude earthquakes are not the same, which is related to complex tectonic setting, the specific reasons still need to be discussed deeply.The study also show that, (1)Stress drops display a systematic change with different faults and locations, high stress-drop events occurs mostly on the fault intersection area. Faults without locking condition and mainly creep, are mainly characterized by low stress drop. (2)Contrasting to what is commonly thought that "strike-slip faults are not easy to accumulate stress ", Z2 and Z3 all exhibit high stress levels, which

  5. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these deficiencies

  6. DG TO FT - AUTOMATIC TRANSLATION OF DIGRAPH TO FAULT TREE MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, D. L.

    1994-01-01

    Fault tree and digraph models are frequently used for system failure analysis. Both types of models represent a failure space view of the system using AND and OR nodes in a directed graph structure. Each model has its advantages. While digraphs can be derived in a fairly straightforward manner from system schematics and knowledge about component failure modes and system design, fault tree structure allows for fast processing using efficient techniques developed for tree data structures. The similarities between digraphs and fault trees permits the information encoded in the digraph to be translated into a logically equivalent fault tree. The DG TO FT translation tool will automatically translate digraph models, including those with loops or cycles, into fault tree models that have the same minimum cut set solutions as the input digraph. This tool could be useful, for example, if some parts of a system have been modeled using digraphs and others using fault trees. The digraphs could be translated and incorporated into the fault trees, allowing them to be analyzed using a number of powerful fault tree processing codes, such as cut set and quantitative solution codes. A cut set for a given node is a group of failure events that will cause the failure of the node. A minimum cut set for a node is any cut set that, if any of the failures in the set were to be removed, the occurrence of the other failures in the set will not cause the failure of the event represented by the node. Cut sets calculations can be used to find dependencies, weak links, and vital system components whose failures would cause serious systems failure. The DG TO FT translation system reads in a digraph with each node listed as a separate object in the input file. The user specifies a terminal node for the digraph that will be used as the top node of the resulting fault tree. A fault tree basic event node representing the failure of that digraph node is created and becomes a child of the terminal

  7. Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen

    2015-01-01

    The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

  8. Comparing Two Different Approaches to the Modeling of the Common Cause Failures in Fault Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukovic, I.; Mikulicic, V.; Vrbanic, I.

    2002-01-01

    The potential for common cause failures in systems that perform critical functions has been recognized as very important contributor to risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants. Consequentially, modeling of common cause failures (CCF) in fault trees has become one among the essential elements in any probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Detailed and realistic representation of CCF potential in fault tree structure is sometimes very challenging task. This is especially so in the cases where a common cause group involves more than two components. During the last ten years the difficulties associated with this kind of modeling have been overcome to some degree by development of integral PSA tools with high capabilities. Some of them allow for the definition of CCF groups and their automated expanding in the process of Boolean resolution and generation of minimal cutsets. On the other hand, in PSA models developed and run by more traditional tools, CCF-potential had to be modeled in the fault trees explicitly. With explicit CCF modeling, fault trees can grow very large, especially in the cases when they involve CCF groups with 3 or more members, which can become an issue for the management of fault trees and basic events with traditional non-integral PSA models. For these reasons various simplifications had to be made. Speaking in terms of an overall PSA model, there are also some other issues that need to be considered, such as maintainability and accessibility of the model. In this paper a comparison is made between the two approaches to CCF modeling. Analysis is based on a full-scope Level 1 PSA model for internal initiating events that had originally been developed by a traditional PSA tool and later transferred to a new-generation PSA tool with automated CCF modeling capabilities. Related aspects and issues mentioned above are discussed in the paper. (author)

  9. Seismic slip recorded in tourmaline fault mirrors from Elba Island (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viti, C.; Brogi, A.; Liotta, D.; Mugnaioli, E.; Spiess, R.; Dini, A.; Zucchi, M.; Vannuccini, G.

    2016-05-01

    This paper reports the first example of fault mirrors developed in an unusual protolith, consisting of tourmaline crystals with interstitial goethite. The deformation mechanisms active in the fault zone have been investigated from the outcrop to the nanoscale, aiming to identify possible traces of frictional heating at seismic slip rate, as observed for other fault mirrors in different protoliths. The investigation revealed the superposition of two main deformational stages. The first was dominated by brittle processes and produced a cataclastic/ultracataclastic principal slip zone, a few mm thick; the second was associated with seismic slip and produced a sharp discontinuity (the principal slip surface) within the cataclastic/ultracataclastic zone. The mirror-like coating, a few microns thick, occurs on the principal slip surface, and is characterized by 1) absence of interstitial goethite; 2) occurrence of truncated tourmaline crystals; 3) highly variable grain size, from 200 μm to 200 nm; 4) tourmaline close packing with interlobate grain boundaries, and 5) tourmaline random crystallographic orientation. Micro and nanostructural investigations indicate the occurrence of thermally-activated processes, involving both interstitial goethite and tourmaline. In particular, close to the principal slip surface, goethite is completely decomposed, and produced an amorphous porous material, with local topotactic recrystallization of hematite. Tourmaline clasts are typically characterized by strongly lobate boundaries, indicative of reaction and partial decomposition at grain boundaries. TEM observations revealed the occurrence of tourmaline nanograins, a few tens of nm in size, characterized by rounded shape and fading amorphous boundaries, that cannot be obtained by brittle processes. Lastly, the peculiar interlobate microstructure of the mirror surface is interpreted as the result of grain boundary recrystallization processes taking place by deformation at high

  10. Spontaneous non-volcanic tremor detected in the Anza Seismic Gap of San Jacinto Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchison, A. A.; Ghosh, A.

    2017-12-01

    Non-volcanic tremor (NVT), a type of slow earthquake, is becoming more frequently detected along plate boundaries, particularly in subduction zones, and is also observed along the San Andreas Fault [e.g. Nadeau & Dolenc, 2005]. NVT is typically associated with transient deformation (i.e. slow slip) in the transition zone [e.g. Ide et al., 2007], and at times it is observed with deep creep along faults [e.g. Beroza & Ide, 2011]. Using several independent location and detection methods including multi-beam backprojection [Ghosh et al., 2009a; 2012], envelope cross correlation [Wech & Creager, 2008], spectral analyses and visual inspection of existing network stations and high-density mini seismic array data, we detect multiple discrete spontaneous tremor events in the Anza Gap of the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) in June, 2011. The events occur on the SJF where the Hot Springs Fault terminates, on the northwestern boundary of the Anza Gap, below the inferred seismogenic zone characterized by velocity weakening frictional behavior [e.g. Lindsay et al., 2014]. The location methods provide consistent locations for each event in our catalog. Low slowness values help rule-out surface noise that may result in false detections. Analyses of frequency spectra show these time windows are depleted in high frequency energy in the displacement amplitude spectrum compared to small local regular (fast) earthquakes. This spectral pattern is characteristic of tremor [Shelly et al., 2007]. We interpret this tremor to be a seismic manifestation of slow-slip events below the seismogenic zone. Recently, an independent geodetic study suggests that the 2010 El Mayor-Cucupah earthquake triggered a slow-slip event in the Anza Gap [Inbal et al., 2017]. In addition, multiple studies infer deep creep in the SJF [e.g. Meng & Peng et al., 2016; Jiang & Fialko, 2016] indicating that this fault is capable of producing slow slip events. Transient tectonic behavior like tremor and slow slip may be playing

  11. Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the san andreas fault: evidence from trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacoby, G C; Sheppard, P R; Sieh, K E

    1988-07-08

    Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.

  12. Seismic Supercycles of Normal Faults in Central Italy over Various Time Scales Revealed by 36Cl Cosmogenic Dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, L. C.; Tesson, J.; Perouse, E.; Puliti, I.; Fleury, J.; Rizza, M.; Billant, J.; Pace, B.

    2017-12-01

    The use of 36Cl cosmogenic nuclide as a paleoseismological tool for normal faults in the Mediterranean has revolutionized our understanding of their seismic cycle (Gran Mitchell et al. 2001, Benedetti et al. 2002). Here we synthetized results obtained on 13 faults in Central Italy. Those records cover a period of 8 to 45 ka. The mean recurrence time of retrieved seismic events is 5.5 ±6 ka, with a mean slip per event of 2.5 ± 1.8 m and a mean slip-rate from 0.1 to 2.4 mm/yr. Most retrieved events correspond to single events according to scaling relationships. This is also supported by the 2 m-high co-seismic slip observed on the Mt Vettore fault after the October 30, 2016 M6.5 earthquake in Central Italy (EMERGEO working group). Our results suggest that all faults have experienced one or several periods of slip acceleration with bursts of seismic activity, associated with very high slip-rate of 1.7-9 mm/yr, corresponding to 2-20 times their long-term slip-rate. The duration of those bursts is variable from a fault to another (from recurrence time. This might suggest that the seismic activity of those faults could be controlled by their intrinsic properties (e.g. long-term slip-rate, fault-length, state of structural maturity). Our results also show events clustering with several faults rupturing in less than 500 yrs on adjacent or distant faults within the studied area. The Norcia-Amatrice seismic sequence, ≈ 50 km north of our study area, also evidenced this clustering behaviour, with over the last 20 yrs several successive events of Mw 5 to 6.5 (from north to south: Colfiorito 1997 Mw6.0, Norcia 2016 Mw6.5, L'Aquila 2009 Mw6.3), rupturing various fault systems, over a total length of ≈100 km. This sequence will allow to better understand earthquake kinematics and spatiotemporal slip distribution during those seismic bursts.

  13. Seismic attribute detection of faults and fluid pathways within an active strike-slip shear zone: New insights from high-resolution 3D P-Cable™ seismic data along the Hosgri Fault, offshore California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluesner, Jared W.; Brothers, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Poststack data conditioning and neural-network seismic attribute workflows are used to detect and visualize faulting and fluid migration pathways within a 13.7 km2 13.7 km2 3D P-Cable™ seismic volume located along the Hosgri Fault Zone offshore central California. The high-resolution 3D volume used in this study was collected in 2012 as part of Pacific Gas and Electric’s Central California Seismic Imaging Project. Three-dimensional seismic reflection data were acquired using a triple-plate boomer source (1.75 kJ) and a short-offset, 14-streamer, P-Cable system. The high-resolution seismic data were processed into a prestack time-migrated 3D volume and publically released in 2014. Postprocessing, we employed dip-steering (dip and azimuth) and structural filtering to enhance laterally continuous events and remove random noise and acquisition artifacts. In addition, the structural filtering was used to enhance laterally continuous edges, such as faults. Following data conditioning, neural-network based meta-attribute workflows were used to detect and visualize faults and probable fluid-migration pathways within the 3D seismic volume. The workflow used in this study clearly illustrates the utility of advanced attribute analysis applied to high-resolution 3D P-Cable data. For example, results from the fault attribute workflow reveal a network of splayed and convergent fault strands within an approximately 1.3 km wide shear zone that is characterized by distinctive sections of transpressional and transtensional dominance. Neural-network chimney attribute calculations indicate that fluids are concentrated along discrete faults in the transtensional zones, but appear to be more broadly distributed amongst fault bounded anticlines and structurally controlled traps in the transpressional zones. These results provide high-resolution, 3D constraints on the relationships between strike-slip fault mechanics, substrate deformation, and fluid migration along an active

  14. Geomechanical Modeling of Fault Responses and the Potential for Notable Seismic Events during Underground CO2 Injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutqvist, J.; Cappa, F.; Mazzoldi, A.; Rinaldi, A.

    2012-12-01

    The importance of geomechanics associated with large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS) operations is now widely recognized. There are concerns related to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO2 repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). In this context, we review a number of modeling studies and field observations related to the potential for injection-induced fault reactivations and seismic events. We present recent model simulations of CO2 injection and fault reactivation, including both aseismic and seismic fault responses. The model simulations were conducted using a slip weakening fault model enabling sudden (seismic) fault rupture, and some of the numerical analyses were extended to fully dynamic modeling of seismic source, wave propagation, and ground motion. The model simulations illustrated what it will take to create a magnitude 3 or 4 earthquake that would not result in any significant damage at the groundsurface, but could raise concerns in the local community and could also affect the deep containment of the stored CO2. The analyses show that the local in situ stress field, fault orientation, fault strength, and injection induced overpressure are critical factors in determining the likelihood and magnitude of such an event. We like to clarify though that in our modeling we had to apply very high injection pressure to be able to intentionally induce any fault reactivation. Consequently, our model simulations represent extreme cases, which in a real GCS operation could be avoided by estimating maximum sustainable injection pressure and carefully controlling the injection pressure. In fact, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO2 storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. On the other hand, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants

  15. Seismic and aseismic fault slip in response to fluid injection observed during field experiments at meter scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappa, F.; Guglielmi, Y.; De Barros, L.; Wynants-Morel, N.; Duboeuf, L.

    2017-12-01

    During fluid injection, the observations of an enlarging cloud of seismicity are generally explained by a direct response to the pore pressure diffusion in a permeable fractured rock. However, fluid injection can also induce large aseismic deformations which provide an alternative mechanism for triggering and driving seismicity. Despite the importance of these two mechanisms during fluid injection, there are few studies on the effects of fluid pressure on the partitioning between seismic and aseismic motions under controlled field experiments. Here, we describe in-situ meter-scale experiments measuring synchronously the fluid pressure, the fault motions and the seismicity directly in a fault zone stimulated by controlled fluid injection at 280 m depth in carbonate rocks. The experiments were conducted in a gallery of an underground laboratory in south of France (LSBB, http://lsbb.eu). Thanks to the proximal monitoring at high-frequency, our data show that the fluid overpressure mainly induces a dilatant aseismic slip (several tens of microns up to a millimeter) at the injection. A sparse seismicity (-4 laws, we simulated an experiment and investigated the relative contribution of the fluid pressure diffusion and stress transfer on the seismic and aseismic fault behavior. The model reproduces the hydromechanical data measured at injection, and show that the aseismic slip induced by fluid injection propagates outside the pressurized zone where accumulated shear stress develops, and potentially triggers seismicity. Our models also show that the permeability enhancement and friction evolution are essential to explain the fault slip behavior. Our experimental results are consistent with large-scale observations of fault motions at geothermal sites (Wei et al., 2015; Cornet, 2016), and suggest that controlled field experiments at meter-scale are important for better assessing the role of fluid pressure in natural and human-induced earthquakes.

  16. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

    2005-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  17. Fault Lines: Seismicity and the Fracturing of Energy Narratives in Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubert, E.; Drummond, V. A.; Brandt, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    Fault Lines: Seismicity and the Fracturing of Energy Narratives in Oklahoma Virginia Drummond1, Emily Grubert21Stanford University, Stanford Earth Summer Undergraduate Research Program2Stanford University, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and ResourcesOklahoma is an oil state where residents have historically been supportive of the oil and gas industry. However, a dramatic increase in seismic activity between 2009 and 2015 widely attributed to wastewater injection associated with oil production is a new and highly salient consequence of oil development, affecting local communities' relationship to the environment and to the oil industry. Understanding how seismicity plays into Oklahoma's evolving dialogue about energy is integral to understanding both the current realities and the future of energy communities in Oklahoma.This research engages Oklahoma residents through open-ended interviews and mixed quantitative-qualitative survey research to characterize how energy narratives shape identity in response to conflict between environmental outcomes and economic interest. We perform approximately 20 interviews with residents of Oklahoma, with particular attention to recruiting residents from a wide range of age groups and who work either within or outside the oil and gas industry. General population surveys supplementing detailed interviews with information about community characteristics, social and environmental priorities, and experience with hazards are delivered to residents selected at random from zip codes known to have experienced significant seismicity. We identify narratives used by residents in response to tension between economic and environmental concerns, noting Oklahoma as an interesting case study for how a relatively pro-industry community reacts to and reframes its relationship with energy development, given conflict. In particular, seismicity has fractured the dominant narrative of oil development as positive into new narratives

  18. Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

    2011-09-15

    The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

  19. Geological Identification of Seismic Source at Opak Fault Based on Stratigraphic Sections of the Southern Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hita Pandita

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake is one of the unpredicted natural disasters on our earth. Despite of the absence of high-accuracy method to precisely predict the occurrence of earthquake, numerous studies have been carried out by seismologists to find it. One of the efforts to address the vulnerability of a region to earthquakes is by recognizing the type of rock as the source of the earthquake. Opak Fault is an active fault which was thought to be the source of earthquakes in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. This study aimed to determine the seismic source types of rocks in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. The methods were by measuring stratigraphic sections and the layer thickness in the western part of Southern Mountains. Field study was done in 6 (six research sites. Results of stratigraphic measurement indicated the sedimentary rocks in the Southern Mountains was 3.823 km in thick, while the bedrock was more than 1.042 km in thick. Based on the result, the rock types as the seismic source were thought to originate from the continental crust rocks formed of granite and metamorphic complex.

  20. Temporal b-Value Variations through out a Seismic Faulting Process: The 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Horng Lin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal b-value variations have been completely obtained for the seismic faulting process of the 4 March 2008 Taoyuan earthquake (ML = 5.2, southern Taiwan. In addition to triggering several hundred after shocks, the mainshock was preceded by two groups of foreshocks (64 events that clustered along the narrow major fault zone. A high b-value of ~1.25, estimated from the foreshock series, representing fault growth, was significantly larger than the b-values of 0.80 and 0.81, obtained respectively from after shocks and back ground seismicity. Also there were some pre-shocks (i.e., micro-earth quakes that occurred one month before the earthquake sequence, with an extremely high b-value of ~2.1. This number might successfully indicate pre-nucleation seismic features in the vicinity of the fault zone. These seismic characteristics are fundamentally very similar to general features such as fracture nucleation and growth observed in rock samples under controlled stress in laboratory experiments, and thus ought to be considered to improve our understanding of crustal fault growth.

  1. Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xin

    2009-12-01

    The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

  2. Structure, Kinematics and Origin of Radial Faults: 3D Seismic Observations from the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Alexander; Jackson, Christopher A.-L.

    2017-04-01

    Salt stock growth is typically accompanied by the development of geometrically and kinematically complex fault networks in the surrounding country rock. The most common networks comprise radial faults; these are characterised by low displacement (stock into flanking strata. Radial faults are commonly observed in an arched, unpierced roof developed above a rising salt stock; in these cases, the faults are typically well-imaged seismically and likely form due to outer-arc extension during overburden stretching. Radial faults are also found at deeper structural levels, in strata flanking the diapir stem; in these cases, they are typically less well-imaged, thus their structure, kinematics and origin are less well understood. Furthermore, understanding the growth of radial faults may provide insights into hydrocarbon reservoir compartmentalisation and the evolution of neighbouring salt stocks. Here, we use high-quality 3D seismic reflection data from the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil to determine the structure and kinematics, and infer the likely origin of exceptionally well-imaged radial faults overlying and flanking a mature salt stock. Furthermore, we compare the geometric (e.g. throw, geometry, spacing, distribution etc.) and kinematic (e.g. timing of formation and duration of activity) characteristics of radial faults at both structural levels, allowing us to infer their temporal relationship and likely origins. We show that radial faults regardless of their structural level typically have aspect ratios of c. 1.8 - 2, are laterally-restricted in the vicinity of the salt, and have lengths of indices of c. 1, with low throw gradients of 0.05 - 0.1 at the upper tip indicate that radial faults were likely blind. Throws range from 5 - 80 ms, with throw-maxima within 1 - 2 radii of the salt diapir. However, we note that the position of the throw maxima is not at the same level for all radial faults. We propose that radial faults nucleate and initially grow as blind

  3. RELOSS, Reliability of Safety System by Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, R.N.; Rondiris, I.L.; Adraktas, A.

    1981-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: Program RELOSS is used in the reliability/safety assessment of any complex system with predetermined operational logic in qualitative and (if required) quantitative terms. The program calculates the possible system outcomes following an abnormal operating condition and the probability of occurrence, if required. Furthermore, the program deduces the minimal cut or tie sets of the system outcomes and identifies the potential common mode failures. 4. Method of solution: The reliability analysis performed by the program is based on the event tree methodology. Using this methodology, the program develops the event tree of a system or a module of that system and relates each path of this tree to its qualitative and/or quantitative impact on specified system or module outcomes. If the system being analysed is subdivided into modules the program assesses each module in turn as described previously and then combines the module information to obtain results for the overall system. Having developed the event tree of a module or a system, the program identifies which paths lead or do not lead to various outcomes depending on whether the cut or the tie sets of the outcomes are required and deduces the corresponding sets. Furthermore the program identifies for a specific system outcome, the potential common mode failures and the cut or tie sets containing potential dependent failures of some components. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The present dimensions of the program are as follows. They can however be easily modified: Maximum number of modules (equivalent components): 25; Maximum number of components in a module: 15; Maximum number of levels of parentheses in a logical statement: 10 Maximum number of system outcomes: 3; Maximum number of module outcomes: 2; Maximum number of points in time for which quantitative analysis is required: 5; Maximum order of any cut or tie set: 10; Maximum order of a cut or tie of any

  4. An Integrated Approach of Model checking and Temporal Fault Tree for System Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    Digitalization of instruments and control systems in nuclear power plants offers the potential to improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability, and improved failure detection capability. It however makes the systems and their safety analysis more complex. Originally, safety analysis was applied to hardware system components and formal methods mainly to software. For software-controlled or digitalized systems, it is necessary to integrate both. Fault tree analysis (FTA) which has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry suffers from several drawbacks as described in. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA.

  5. Reliability Analysis of Core Protection Calculator System by Combining Petri Net and Fault Tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyejin; Kim, Jonghyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes an approach to analyzing the reliability of digital systems by combining Petri net (PN) and Fault tree. The Petri net allows modeling event dependencies and interaction, to represent the time sequence, and to model assumptions for dynamic events. The Petri net model can be straightforwardly transformed to fault tree using the gate. Then, the FT can be integrated into the existing PSA. This paper applies the approach to the reliability analysis of Core Protection Calculator System (CPCS). Digital technology is replacing the analog instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in both new and upgraded nuclear power plants. As digital systems are introduced to nuclear power plants, issues related with reliability analyses of these digital systems are being raised. One of these issues is that static fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) approach cannot properly account for dynamic interactions in the digital systems, such as multiple top events, logic loops and time delay. Many methods have been proposed to solve the problems, but there is no single method that is universally accepted for the application to the current generation probabilistic safety analysis (PSA)

  6. Reliability Analysis of Core Protection Calculator System by Combining Petri Net and Fault Tree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyejin; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    This paper proposes an approach to analyzing the reliability of digital systems by combining Petri net (PN) and Fault tree. The Petri net allows modeling event dependencies and interaction, to represent the time sequence, and to model assumptions for dynamic events. The Petri net model can be straightforwardly transformed to fault tree using the gate. Then, the FT can be integrated into the existing PSA. This paper applies the approach to the reliability analysis of Core Protection Calculator System (CPCS). Digital technology is replacing the analog instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in both new and upgraded nuclear power plants. As digital systems are introduced to nuclear power plants, issues related with reliability analyses of these digital systems are being raised. One of these issues is that static fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) approach cannot properly account for dynamic interactions in the digital systems, such as multiple top events, logic loops and time delay. Many methods have been proposed to solve the problems, but there is no single method that is universally accepted for the application to the current generation probabilistic safety analysis (PSA)

  7. Fault Tree Analysis with Temporal Gates and Model Checking Technique for Qualitative System Safety Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2010-01-01

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) has suffered from several drawbacks such that it uses only static gates and hence can not capture dynamic behaviors of the complex system precisely, and it is in lack of rigorous semantics, and reasoning process which is to check whether basic events really cause top events is done manually and hence very labor-intensive and time-consuming for the complex systems while it has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry. Although several attempts have been made to overcome this problem, they can not still do absolute or actual time modeling because they adapt relative time concept and can capture only sequential behaviors of the system. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA

  8. The Rock Record of Seismic Nucleation: examples from pseudotachylites beneath the Whipple Detachment Fault, eastern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Arroyo, D.; Behr, W. M.; Gentry, E.

    2017-12-01

    The mechanisms that lead to nucleation and dynamic weakening in the middle crust are not well understood. Proposed mechanisms include flash heating of asperities, thermal pressurization of pore fluids, dynamic instabilities, and fracture interactions. We investigate this issue in the rock record using exhumed mid-crustal rocks exposed beneath the Whipple Detachment fault (WDF) in eastern CA. Analysis of pseudotachylites (PS) beneath the WDF, representing paleo-earthquakes, reveal two types: Type 1 PS exhibit little to no precursory cataclasis and are concentrated along shear bands at the margins of feldspar-rich lenses embedded in more quartz-rich domains. These appear synkinematic with S-C fabrics in the surrounding mylonites and they exhibit finely dynamically recrystallized grains in quartz at their margins, suggesting coeval ductile deformation. By contrast, Type 2 PS occur along the principal slip surface of a brittle shear zone and show evidence for precursory cataclasis, brecciation, and fracturing. Some cataclasites inject into the host rock, forming eddies along the boundary with the PS. Slip appears to localize progressively into a 2 cm thick fault core, with PS concentrated primarily in the interior- the presence of solidified melt and fluidized cataclasite as clasts within the fault core suggests multiple slip events are preserved. We interpret the two types of pseudotachylites to represent different conditions and mechanisms of earthquake nucleation near the brittle-ductile transition (BDT). Type 1 PS are interpreted to represent nucleation in deeper sections of the BDT by failure along mineralogically-controlled stress concentrations hosted within an otherwise viscously deforming mylonite. Our data suggest that these do not develop into large-magnitude EQ's because seismic slip is dampened into the surrounding quartz-rich viscous matrix; instead they may represent deep microseismicity and/or seismic tremor. By contrast, Type 2 PS are interpreted to

  9. Imaging near-subsurface subrosion structures and faults using SH-wave reflection seismics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadas, Sonja; Polom, Ulrich; Buness, Hermann; Krawczyk, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    Subrosion is a term for underground leaching of soluble rocks and is a global phenomenon. It involves dissolution of evaporites due to the presence of unsaturated water, fractures and faults. Fractures and faults are pathways for water to circulate and to generate subsurface cavities. Depending on the leached material and the parameters of the generation process, especially the dissolution rate, different kinds of subrosion structures evolve in the subsurface. The two end members are collapse and depression structures. Subrosion is a natural process, but it can be enhanced by anthropogenic factors like manipulation of the aquifer system and groundwater flow and by e.g. extraction of saline water. The formation of sinkholes and depressions are a dangerous geohazard, especially if they occur in urban areas, which often leads to building and infrastructural damage and life-threatening situations. For this reason investigations of the processes that induce subrosion and a detailed analysis of the resulting structures are of importance. To develop a comprehensive model of near-subsurface subrosion structures, reflection seismics is one of the methods used by the Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics. The study area is located in the city of Bad Frankenhausen in northern Thuringia, Germany. Most of the geological underground of Thuringia is characterized by Permian deposits. Bad Frankenhausen is situated directly south of the Kyffhäuser mountain range at the Kyffhäuser Southern Margin Fault. This major fault is one of the main pathways for the circulating ground- and meteoric waters that leach the Permian deposits, especially the Leine-, Staßfurt- and Werra Formations. 2014 and 2015 eight shear wave reflection seismic profiles were carried out in the urban area of Bad Frankenhausen and three profiles in the countrified surroundings. Altogether ca. 3.6 km were surveyed using a landstreamer as receiver and an electro-dynamic vibrator as source. The surveys were

  10. Realization of multi-parameter and multi-state in fault tree computer-aided building software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Xiaoli; Tong Jiejuan; Xue Dazhi

    2004-01-01

    More than one parameter and more than one failed state of a parameter are often involved in building fault tree, so it is necessary for fault tree computer-aided building software to deal with multi-parameter and multi-state. Fault Tree Expert System (FTES) has the target of aiding the FT-building work of hydraulic systems. This paper expatiates on how to realize multi-parameter and multi-state in FTES with focus on Knowledge Base and Illation Engine. (author)

  11. A Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical coupled Numerical modeling of Injection-induced seismicity on a pre-existing fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongchan; Archer, Rosalind

    2017-04-01

    In terms of energy development (oil, gas and geothermal field) and environmental improvement (carbon dioxide sequestration), fluid injection into subsurface has been dramatically increased. As a side effect of these operations, a number of injection-induced seismic activities have also significantly risen. It is known that the main causes of induced seismicity are changes in local shear and normal stresses and pore pressure as well. This mechanism leads to increase in the probability of earthquake occurrence on permeable pre-existing fault zones predominantly. In this 2D fully coupled THM geothermal reservoir numerical simulation of injection-induced seismicity, we investigate the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical behavior of the fracture zone, considering a variety of 1) fault permeability, 2) injection rate and 3) injection temperature to identify major contributing parameters to induced seismic activity. We also calculate spatiotemporal variation of the Coulomb stress which is a combination of shear stress, normal stress and pore pressure and lastly forecast the seismicity rate on the fault zone by computing the seismic prediction model of Dieterich (1994).

  12. Permeability and seismic velocity anisotropy across a ductile-brittle fault zone in crystalline rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenning, Quinn C.; Madonna, Claudio; de Haller, Antoine; Burg, Jean-Pierre

    2018-05-01

    This study characterizes the elastic and fluid flow properties systematically across a ductile-brittle fault zone in crystalline rock at the Grimsel Test Site underground research laboratory. Anisotropic seismic velocities and permeability measured every 0.1 m in the 0.7 m across the transition zone from the host Grimsel granodiorite to the mylonitic core show that foliation-parallel P- and S-wave velocities systematically increase from the host rock towards the mylonitic core, while permeability is reduced nearest to the mylonitic core. The results suggest that although brittle deformation has persisted in the recent evolution, antecedent ductile fabric continues to control the matrix elastic and fluid flow properties outside the mylonitic core. The juxtaposition of the ductile strain zone next to the brittle zone, which is bounded inside the two mylonitic cores, causes a significant elastic, mechanical, and fluid flow heterogeneity, which has important implications for crustal deformation and fluid flow and for the exploitation and use of geothermal energy and geologic waste storage. The results illustrate how physical characteristics of faults in crystalline rocks change in fault zones during the ductile to brittle transitions.

  13. Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco

    2016-04-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including

  14. PC-based support programs coupled with the sets code for large fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hioki, K.; Nakai, R.

    1989-01-01

    Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) has developed four PC programs: IEIQ (Initiating Event Identification and Quantification), MODESTY (Modular Even Description for a Variety of Systems), FAUST (Fault Summary Tables Generation Program) and ETAAS (Event Tree Analysis Assistant System). These programs prepare the input data for the SETS (Set Equation Transformation System) code and construct and quantify event trees (E/Ts) using the output of the SETS code. The capability of these programs is described and some examples of the results are presented in this paper. With these PC programs and the SETS code, PSA can now be performed with more consistency and less manpower

  15. The integration of expert-defined importance factors to enrich Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwish, Molham; Almouahed, Shaban; Lamotte, Florent de

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes an analysis of a hybrid Bayesian-Importance model for system designers to improve the quality of services related to Active Assisted Living Systems. The proposed model is based on two factors: failure probability measure of different service components and, an expert defined degree of importance that each component holds for the success of the corresponding service. The proposed approach advocates the integration of expert-defined importance factors to enrich the Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach. The evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted using the Fault Tree Analysis formalism where the undesired state of a system is analyzed using Boolean logic mechanisms to combine a series of lower-level events.

  16. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  17. Post Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis Using a Fault Tree Logic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, Hyun Tae; Park, Jun Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Every nuclear power plant should have its own fire hazard analysis including the fire safe shutdown analysis. A safe shutdown (SSD) analysis is performed to demonstrate the capability of the plant to safely shut down for a fire in any given area. The basic assumption is that there will be fire damage to all cables and equipment located within a common fire area. When evaluating the SSD capabilities of the plant, based on a review of the systems, equipment and cables within each fire area, it should be determined which shutdown paths are either unaffected or least impacted by a postulated fire within the fire area. Instead of seeking a success path for safe shutdown given all cables and equipment damaged by a fire, there can be an alternative approach to determine the SSD capability: fault tree analysis. This paper introduces the methodology for fire SSD analysis using a fault tree logic model

  18. The use of fault tree analysis to minimize research reactor downtime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, B.; Wang, C.H.; Anderson, T.V.

    1984-01-01

    For many reasons it is often highly desirable to maintain a research reactor in a continuously operable state and in the event of any failures to minimize the length of the reactor downtime. In order to keep the length of future downtimes to less than ten days for the sixteen year old OSU TRIGA reactor, a fault tree analysis was performed for all of the systems required to maintain the reactor operational. As a result of this analysis, it was possible to determine the critical parts and key components. By examining the availability and delivery times for each of these items, it was then possible to make reasoned decisions relating to the advance purchase of spare parts. This paper outlines the above process, along with examples of fault trees developed, and a recent history of the efficacy of this technique. (author)

  19. Selection the Optimum Suppliers Compound Using a Mixed Model of MADM and Fault Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Azimian

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach of MADM and fault tree analysis (FTA is provided for determining the most reliable combination of suppliers for a strategic product in IUT University. At first, risks of suppliers is estimated by defining the indices for evaluating them, determining their relative status indices and using satisfying and SAW methods. Then, intrinsic risks of utilized equipments in the products are qualified and the final integrated risk for equipments is determined. Finally, through all the different scenarios, the best composition of equipment suppliers is selected by defining the palpable top events and fault tree analysis. The contribution of this paper is about proposing an integrated method of MADM and FTA to determine the most reliable suppliers in order to minimize the final risk of providing a product.

  20. SAFTAC, Monte-Carlo Fault Tree Simulation for System Design Performance and Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetti, P.A.; Garcia de Viedma, L.

    1976-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: SAFTAC is a Monte Carlo fault tree simulation program that provides a systematic approach for analyzing system design, performing trade-off studies, and optimizing system changes or additions. 2 - Method of solution: SAFTAC assumes an exponential failure distribution for basic input events and a choice of either Gaussian distributed or constant repair times. The program views the system represented by the fault tree as a statistical assembly of independent basic input events, each characterized by an exponential failure distribution and, if used, a constant or normal repair distribution. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The program is dimensioned to handle 1100 basic input events and 1100 logical gates. It can be re-dimensioned to handle up to 2000 basic input events and 2000 logical gates within the existing core memory

  1. A Study on Landslide Risk Management by Applying Fault Tree Logics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazmi Danish

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Slope stability is one of the focal areas of curiosity to geotechnical designers and also appears logical for the application of probabilistic approaches since the analysis lead to a “probability of failure”. Assessment of the existing slopes in relation with risks seems to be more meaningful when concerning with landslides. Probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA is the best option in covering the landslides events. The intent here is to bid a probabilistic framework for quantified risk analysis with human uncertainties. In this regard, Fault Tree Analysis is utilized and for prediction of risk levels, consequences of the failures of the reference landslides have been taken. It is concluded that logics of fault trees is best fit, to clinch additional categories of uncertainty; like human, organizational, and knowledge related. In actual, the approach has been used in bringing together engineering and management performances and personnel, to produce reliability in slope engineering practices.

  2. Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TONG Lili; CAO Xuewu

    2008-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem.This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems.The dualistic contrast,known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems,is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article.And the fault tree analysis,deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis,is also adopted.Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved.An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method.

  3. Using SETS to find minimal cut sets in large fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, R.B.; Stack, D.W.

    1978-01-01

    An efficient algebraic algorithm for finding the minimal cut sets for a large fault tree was defined and a new procedure which implements the algorithm was added to the Set Equation Transformation System (SETS). The algorithm includes the identification and separate processing of independent subtrees, the coalescing of consecutive gates of the same kind, the creation of additional independent subtrees, and the derivation of the fault tree stem equation in stages. The computer time required to determine the minimal cut sets using these techniques is shown to be substantially less than the computer time required to determine the minimal cut sets when these techniques are not employed. It is shown for a given example that the execution time required to determine the minimal cut sets can be reduced from 7,686 seconds to 7 seconds when all of these techniques are employed

  4. Algorithms and programs for evaluating fault trees with multi-state components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickenhaeuser, A.

    1989-07-01

    Part 1 and 2 of the report contain a summary overview of methods and algorithms for the solution of fault tree analysis problems. The following points are treated in detail: Treatment of fault tree components with more than two states. Acceleration of the solution algorithms. Decomposition and modularization of extensive systems. Calculation of the structural function and the exact occurrence probability. Treatment of statistical dependencies. A flexible tool to be employed in solving these problems is the method of forming Boolean variables with restrictions. In this way, components with more than two states can be treated, the possibilities of forming modules expanded, and statistical dependencies treated. Part 3 contains descriptions of the MUSTAFA, MUSTAMO, PASPI, and SIMUST computer programs based on these methods. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Tree-ring 14C links seismic swarm to CO2 spike at Yellowstone, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, William C.; Bergfeld, D.; McGeehin, J.P.; King, J.C.; Heasler, H.

    2010-01-01

    Mechanisms to explain swarms of shallow seismicity and inflation-deflation cycles at Yellowstone caldera (western United States) commonly invoke episodic escape of magma-derived brines or gases from the ductile zone, but no correlative changes in the surface efflux of magmatic constituents have ever been documented. Our analysis of individual growth rings in a tree core from the Mud Volcano thermal area within the caldera links a sharp ~25% drop in 14C to a local seismic swarm in 1978. The implied fivefold increase in CO2 emissions clearly associates swarm seismicity with upflow of magma-derived fluid and shows that pulses of magmatic CO2 can rapidly traverse the 5-kmthick brittle zone, even through Yellowstone's enormous hydrothermal reservoir. The 1978 event predates annual deformation surveys, but recognized connections between subsequent seismic swarms and changes in deformation suggest that CO2 might drive both processes. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

  6. Seismic Moment and Recurrence using Luminescence Dating Techniques: Characterizing brittle fault zone materials suitable for luminescence dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsakalos, E.; Lin, A.; Bassiakos, Y.; Kazantzaki, M.; Filippaki, E.

    2017-12-01

    During a seismic-geodynamic process, frictional heating and pressure are generated on sediments fragments resulting in deformation and alteration of minerals contained in them. The luminescence signal enclosed in minerals crystal lattice can be affected and even zeroed during such an event. This has been breakthrough in geochronological studies as it could be utilized as a chronometer for the previous seismic activity of a tectonically active area. Although the employment of luminescence dating has in some cases been successfully described, a comprehensive study outlining and defining protocols for routine luminescence dating applied to neotectonic studies has not been forthcoming. This study is the experimental investigation, recording and parameterization of the effects of tectonic phenomena on minerals luminescence signal and the development of detailed protocols for the standardization of the luminescence methodology for directly dating deformed geological formations, so that the long-term temporal behaviour of seismically active faults could be reasonably understood and modeled. This will be achieved by: a) identifying and proposing brittle fault zone materials suitable for luminescence dating using petrological, mineralogical and chemical analyses and b) investigating the "zeroing" potential of the luminescence signal of minerals contained in fault zone materials by employing experimental simulations of tectonic processes in the laboratory, combined with luminescence measurements on samples collected from real fault zones. For this to be achieved, a number of samples collected from four faults of four different geographical regions will be used. This preliminary-first step of the study presents the microstructural, and mineralogical analyses for the characterization of brittle fault zone materials that contain suitable minerals for luminescence dating (e.g., quartz and feldspar). The results showed that the collected samples are seismically deformed fault

  7. Material control study: a directed graph and fault tree procedure for adversary event set generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.; Lim, J.J.; Gilman, F.M.

    1978-01-01

    In work for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory is developing an assessment procedure to evaluate the effectiveness of a potential nuclear facility licensee's material control (MC) system. The purpose of an MC system is to prevent the theft of special nuclear material such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium. The key in the assessment procedure is the generation and analysis of the adversary event sets by a directed graph and fault-tree methodology

  8. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  9. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  10. The Combined Application of Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation in Generation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

    2009-01-01

    The paper describes a few ideas developed for the framework to quantify human errors taking place during the test and maintenance (T and M) in a secondary system of nuclear power plants, which was presented in the previous meeting. GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) is composed of four essential components, the human error interpreter, the frequency estimator, the risk estimator, and the derate estimator. The proposed GRA gave emphasis on explicitly considering human errors, performing fault tree analysis including the entire balance-of-plant side, and quantifying electric loss under abnormal plant configurations. In terms of the consideration of human errors, it was hard to distinguish the effects of human errors from other failure modes in the conventional GRA because the human errors were implicitly involved in mechanical failure mode. Since the risk estimator in GRA-HRE separately deals with the basic events representing human error modes such as control failure, wrong object, omission, wrong action, etc., we can recognize their relative importance comparing with other types of mechanical failures. Other specialties in GRA-HRE came from the combined application of fault tree analysis and turbine cycle simulation. The previous study suggested that we would use the fault tree analysis with the top events designated by system's malfunction such as 'feedwater system failure' to develop the risk estimator. However, this approach could not clearly provide the path of propagation of human errors, and it was difficult to present the failure logics in some cases. In order to overcome these bottlenecks, the paper is going to propose the modified idea to setup top events and to explain how to make use of turbine cycle simulation to complete the fault trees in a cooperative manner

  11. Fractal properties and simulation of micro-seismicity for seismic hazard analysis: a comparison of North Anatolian and San Andreas Fault Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naside Ozer

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed statistical properties of earthquakes in western Anatolia as well as the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ in terms of spatio-temporal variations of fractal dimensions, p- and b-values. During statistically homogeneous periods characterized by closer fractal dimension values, we propose that occurrence of relatively larger shocks (M >= 5.0 is unlikely. Decreases in seismic activity in such intervals result in spatial b-value distributions that are primarily stable. Fractal dimensions decrease with time in proportion to increasing seismicity. Conversely, no spatiotemporal patterns were observed for p-value changes. In order to evaluate failure probabilities and simulate earthquake occurrence in the western NAFZ, we applied a modified version of the renormalization group method. Assuming an increase in small earthquakes is indicative of larger shocks, we apply the mentioned model to micro-seismic (M<= 3.0 activity, and test our results using San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ data. We propose that fractal dimension is a direct indicator of material heterogeneity and strength. Results from a model suggest simulated and observed earthquake occurrences are coherent, and may be used for seismic hazard estimation on creeping strike-slip fault zones.

  12. MOCUS, Minimal Cut Sets and Minimal Path Sets from Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.; Henry, E.B.; Marshall, N.H.

    1976-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: From a description of the Boolean failure logic of a system, called a fault tree, and control parameters specifying the minimal cut set length to be obtained MOCUS determines the system failure modes, or minimal cut sets, and the system success modes, or minimal path sets. 2 - Method of solution: MOCUS uses direct resolution of the fault tree into the cut and path sets. The algorithm used starts with the main failure of interest, the top event, and proceeds to basic independent component failures, called primary events, to resolve the fault tree to obtain the minimal sets. A key point of the algorithm is that an and gate alone always increases the number of path sets; an or gate alone always increases the number of cut sets and increases the size of path sets. Other types of logic gates must be described in terms of and and or logic gates. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Output from MOCUS can include minimal cut and path sets for up to 20 gates

  13. Fault-Tree Modeling of Safety-Critical Network Communication in a Digitalized Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    To achieve technical self-reliance for nuclear I and C systems in Korea, the Advanced Power Reactor 1400 (APR-1400) man-machine interface system (MMIS) architecture was developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). As one of the systems in the developed MMIS architecture, the Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System (ESF-CCS) employs a network communication system for the transmission of safety-critical information from group controllers (GCs) to loop controllers (LCs) to effectively accommodate the vast number of field controllers. The developed fault-tree model was then applied to several case studies. As an example of the development of a fault-tree model for ESF-CCS signal failure, the fault-tree model of ESF-CCS signal failure for CS pump PP01A in the CSAS condition was designed by considering the identified hazardous states of network failure that would result in a failure to provide input signals to the corresponding LC. The quantitative results for four case studies demonstrated that the probability of overall network communication failure, which was calculated as the sum of the failure probability associated with each failure cause, contributes up to 1.88% of the probability of ESF-CCS signal failure for the CS pump considered in the case studies.

  14. Coseismic and Early Post-Seismic Slip Distributions of the 2012 Emilia (Northern Italy) Seismic Sequence: New Insights in the Faults Activation and Resulting Stress Changes on Adjacent Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.

    2015-12-01

    The 2012 Emilia sequence (main shocks Mw 6.1 May 20 and Mw 5.9 May 29) ruptured two thrust segments of a ~E-W trending fault system of the buried Ferrara Arc, along a portion of the compressional system of the Apennines that had remained silent during past centuries. Here we use the rupture geometry constrained by the aftershocks and new geodetic data (levelling, InSAR and GPS measurements) to estimate an improved coseismic slip distribution of the two main events. In addition, we use post-seismic displacements, described and analyzed here for the first time, to infer a brand new post-seismic slip distribution of the May 29 event in terms of afterslip on the same coseismic plane. In particular, in this study we use a catalog of precisely relocated aftershocks to explore the different proposed geometries of the proposed thrust segments that have been published so far and estimate the coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions of the ruptured planes responsible for the two main seismic events from a joint inversion of the geodetic data.Joint inversion results revealed that the two earthquakes ruptured two distinct planar thrust faults, characterized by single main coseismic patches located around the centre of the rupture planes, in agreement with the seismological and geological information pointing out the Ferrara and the Mirandola thrust faults, as the causative structures of the May 20 and May 29 main shocks respectively.The preferred post-seismic slip distribution related to the 29 May event, yielded to a main patch of afterslip (equivalent to a Mw 5.6 event) located westward and up-dip of the main coseismic patch, suggesting that afterslip was triggered at the edges of the coseismic asperity. We then use these co- and post-seismic slip distribution models to calculate the stress changes on adjacent fault.

  15. PREP KITT, System Reliability by Fault Tree Analysis. PREP, Min Path Set and Min Cut Set for Fault Tree Analysis, Monte-Carlo Method. KITT, Component and System Reliability Information from Kinetic Fault Tree Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Narum, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: The PREP/KITT computer program package obtains system reliability information from a system fault tree. The PREP program finds the minimal cut sets and/or the minimal path sets of the system fault tree. (A minimal cut set is a smallest set of components such that if all the components are simultaneously failed the system is failed. A minimal path set is a smallest set of components such that if all of the components are simultaneously functioning the system is functioning.) The KITT programs determine reliability information for the components of each minimal cut or path set, for each minimal cut or path set, and for the system. Exact, time-dependent reliability information is determined for each component and for each minimal cut set or path set. For the system, reliability results are obtained by upper bound approximations or by a bracketing procedure in which various upper and lower bounds may be obtained as close to one another as desired. The KITT programs can handle independent components which are non-repairable or which have a constant repair time. Any assortment of non-repairable components and components having constant repair times can be considered. Any inhibit conditions having constant probabilities of occurrence can be handled. The failure intensity of each component is assumed to be constant with respect to time. The KITT2 program can also handle components which during different time intervals, called phases, may have different reliability properties. 2 - Method of solution: The PREP program obtains minimal cut sets by either direct deterministic testing or by an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. The minimal path sets are obtained using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The reliability information is obtained by the KITT programs from numerical solution of the simple integral balance equations of kinetic tree theory. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PREP program will obtain the minimal cut and

  16. Hydraulic Fracture Induced Seismicity During A Multi-Stage Pad Completion in Western Canada: Evidence of Activation of Multiple, Parallel Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, S.; Garrett, D.; Huang, J.; Usher, P.; Mamer, P.

    2017-12-01

    Following reports of injection induced seismicity in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, regulators have imposed seismic monitoring and traffic light protocols for fracturing operations in specific areas. Here we describe a case study in one of these reservoirs, the Montney Shale in NE British Columbia, where induced seismicity was monitored with a local array during multi-stage hydraulic fracture stimulations on several wells from a single drilling pad. Seismicity primarily occurred during the injection time periods, and correlated with periods of high injection rates and wellhead pressures above fracturing pressures. Sequential hydraulic fracture stages were found to progressively activate several parallel, critically-stressed faults, as illuminated by multiple linear hypocenter patterns in the range between Mw 1 and 3. Moment tensor inversion of larger events indicated a double-couple mechanism consistent with the regional strike-slip stress state and the hypocenter lineations. The critically-stressed faults obliquely cross the well paths which were purposely drilled parallel to the minimum principal stress direction. Seismicity on specific faults started and stopped when fracture initiation points of individual injection stages were proximal to the intersection of the fault and well. The distance ranges when the seismicity occurs is consistent with expected hydraulic fracture dimensions, suggesting that the induced fault slip only occurs when a hydraulic fracture grows directly into the fault and the faults are temporarily exposed to significantly elevated fracture pressures during the injection. Some faults crossed multiple wells and the seismicity was found to restart during injection of proximal stages on adjacent wells, progressively expanding the seismogenic zone of the fault. Progressive fault slip is therefore inferred from the seismicity migrating further along the faults during successive injection stages. An accelerometer was also deployed close

  17. Fault analysis in the very shallow seismic reflection method; Gokusenso jishin hanshaho ni okeru danso kaiseki. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagumo, S; Muraoka, S; Kaida, Y; Takahashi, T [OYO Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-01

    To effectively use the very shallow seismic reflection for active fault survey, a method has been investigated by which fault structures can be appropriately reconstructed from the fault information detected in the original records. The first step of reconstructing the fault system from the travel time reflection curve was to grasp an outline of fault structure from the patterns of travel time curve observed in the original record. For the very shallow seismic reflection method, especially, the low velocity layers in a shallow part succeeding from the ground surface made the issue complicated. Then, the travel time reflection curves were calculated in the case of existing several horizontal reflection surfaces in the surface layer. The constant values, mean velocities to the depth at individual reflection surfaces were used for the approximation of velocities. The outline of fault structure was grasped from the observation of original record. Then, the structure was reconstructed from the travel time curves. When the mean velocity in the medium was known, reconstruction of the feature of reflection surfaces from the travel time curves could be determined by simple mapping. When the mean velocity was unknown, it was calculated using the reciprocal travel time from the common reflection surface for individual reflection surfaces. 7 figs.

  18. Application of fault tree methodology to modeling of the AP1000 plant digital reactor protection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teolis, D.S.; Zarewczynski, S.A.; Detar, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    The reactor trip system (RTS) and engineered safety features actuation system (ESFAS) in nuclear power plants utilizes instrumentation and control (IC) to provide automatic protection against unsafe and improper reactor operation during steady-state and transient power operations. During normal operating conditions, various plant parameters are continuously monitored to assure that the plant is operating in a safe state. In response to deviations of these parameters from pre-determined set points, the protection system will initiate actions required to maintain the reactor in a safe state. These actions may include shutting down the reactor by opening the reactor trip breakers and actuation of safety equipment based on the situation. The RTS and ESFAS are represented in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to reflect the impact of their contribution to core damage frequency (CDF). The reactor protection systems (RPS) in existing nuclear power plants are generally analog based and there is general consensus within the PRA community on fault tree modeling of these systems. In new plants, such as AP1000 plant, the RPS is based on digital technology. Digital systems are more complex combinations of hardware components and software. This combination of complex hardware and software can result in the presence of faults and failure modes unique to a digital RPS. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently performing research on the development of probabilistic models for digital systems for inclusion in PRAs; however, no consensus methodology exists at this time. Westinghouse is currently updating the AP1000 plant PRA to support initial operation of plants currently under construction in the United States. The digital RPS is modeled using fault tree methodology similar to that used for analog based systems. This paper presents high level descriptions of a typical analog based RPS and of the AP1000 plant digital RPS. Application of current fault

  19. How to avoid the generation of logic loops in the construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demichela, M.; Piccinini, N.; Ciarambino, I.; Contini, S.

    2004-01-01

    Generation of an infinite series of identical sub-trees may occur during the construction of a Fault Tree (FT) when one item of equipment in a plant is considered several times in the same sub-tree in the course of the tree extraction from a HazOp (Hazard Operability analysis) analysis. Generation of loops in the construction of an FT can be avoided by means of an ad hoc logical analysis in which certain simple rules of syntax are taken into account. A radical solution, however, can be obtained if identification of unwanted events in a process plant is not undertaken with conventional procedures, such as HazOp (Operability Analysis with guide words, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) etc.), but with a more modern and structured version, such as Recursive Operability Analysis (ROA), which is both systematic and complete, and allows direct extraction of logic trees, (FT, event trees, etc.) for subsequent quantification. This feature means that, by contrast with conventional operability analysis, the congruence of the ROA itself can be checked. The ROA method is illustrated in this paper with the aid of some simple examples

  20. Application of Post-stack migration to seismic data associated with fault structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koduru, Anitha; Mohanty, P. R.

    2015-06-01

    In hydrocarbon exploration, wave-equation migration techniques play an important role in imaging the complex geological structures. Usually, post-stack migration scheme is applied to the seismic data to improve the resolution with restoration of dipping reflectors to their true position. As a result, the migrated time sections are interpretable in terms of subsurface features. As a numerical study, three fault models are considered for the present study. First of all, synthetic time sections are generated corresponding to three models. Later, post stack migration schemes such as Gazdag(PS), Phase-shift with turning rays and reverse time migration (T-K) domain techniques are applied in order to judge the imaging accuracy, preservation of true amplitude and computational speed. All the three post stack time migrated sections delineate the structure with their throw.However, the reverse time migrations (T-K) clearly delineate the reflectors in restoring the throw properly with minimum computational time. In order to test the validity the numerical results, similar exercise has been undertaken using field seismic data of KG basin, India. The results indicates that the field migrated sections are imaged. But, the reverse time migration (T-K ) provides the best subsurface image with restoration of reflectors and collapse of diffracted events with least computational time. Gazdag (PS) and Phase-Shift with turning migrated section shows the reduction of amplitude whereas, the reverse time migration preserved the amplitude fully.

  1. Seismic Experiment at North Arizona To Locate Washington Fault - 3D Field Test

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M

    2008-10-01

    No. of receivers in the inline direction: 80, Number of lines: 6, Receiver Interval: 1 m near the fault, 2 m away from the fault (Receivers 1 to 12 at 2 m intervals, receivers 12 to 51 at 1 m intervals, and receivers 51 to 80 at 2 m intervals), No. of shots in the inline direction: 40, Shot interval: 2 and 4 m (every other receiver location). Data Recording The data are recorded using two Bison equipment, each is 120 channels. We shot at all 240 shot locations and simultaneously recorded seismic traces at receivers 1 to 240 (using both Bisons), then we shot again at all 240 shot locations and we recorded at receivers 241 to 480. The data is rearranged to match the receiver order shown in Figure 3 where receiver 1 is at left-lower corner, receivers increase to 80 at right lower corner, then receiver 81 is back to left side at Y = 1.5 m, etc.

  2. Numerical seismic modelling of fault-fold structures in a mountainous setting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtland Grech, M.G.; Lawton, D.C.; Spratt, D.A. (Calgary Univ., AB (Canada))

    1999-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to determine the performance of different prestack migration algorithms in complex structural areas, particularly in the presence of rugged topography and thrust faults that result in severe lateral and vertical velocity changes, using a series of numerical seismic models. The numerical model used was based on a cross section through the Rocky Mountains Front Ranges of Western Canada and is 33 km wide and 11 km deep. The best migrated section was obtained with FD shot migration in depth and from topography, using the known velocity model. This result was superior to Kirchhoff depth migration from topography and from a flat datum. As the velocities departed from their true value, the deeper events were most affected, because of the accumulation of velocity errors with depth. The small-scale features of Target A, in the shallower part of the section, could still be interpreted even when the velocities were inaccurate. In the presence of velocity errors, the different structures could still be interpreted, but were at the wrong depth and had the wrong structural shape and size. Layers that were of the order of 1 km in width and 500 km in thickness, such as Layer 4, were the most poorly imaged and focussed, both with time migration and with depth migration. Fault planes were not imaged in the absence of a velocity contrast across them, making some FW cutoffs difficult to interpret. 2 refs.

  3. Numerical seismic modelling of fault-fold structures in a mountainous setting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtland Grech, M.G.; Lawton, D.C.; Spratt, D.A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

    1999-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to determine the performance of different prestack migration algorithms in complex structural areas, particularly in the presence of rugged topography and thrust faults that result in severe lateral and vertical velocity changes, using a series of numerical seismic models. The numerical model used was based on a cross section through the Rocky Mountains Front Ranges of Western Canada and is 33 km wide and 11 km deep. The best migrated section was obtained with FD shot migration in depth and from topography, using the known velocity model. This result was superior to Kirchhoff depth migration from topography and from a flat datum. As the velocities departed from their true value, the deeper events were most affected, because of the accumulation of velocity errors with depth. The small-scale features of Target A, in the shallower part of the section, could still be interpreted even when the velocities were inaccurate. In the presence of velocity errors, the different structures could still be interpreted, but were at the wrong depth and had the wrong structural shape and size. Layers that were of the order of 1 km in width and 500 km in thickness, such as Layer 4, were the most poorly imaged and focussed, both with time migration and with depth migration. Fault planes were not imaged in the absence of a velocity contrast across them, making some FW cutoffs difficult to interpret. 2 refs.

  4. New Constraints on Late Pleistocene - Holocene Slip Rates and Seismic Behavior Along the Panamint Valley Fault Zone, Eastern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, W.; Kirby, E.; McDonald, E.; Walker, J.; Gosse, J.

    2008-12-01

    Space-time patterns of seismic strain release along active fault systems can provide insight into the geodynamics of deforming lithosphere. Along the eastern California shear zone, fault systems south of the Garlock fault appear to have experienced an ongoing pulse of seismic activity over the past ca. 1 kyr (Rockwell et al., 2000). Recently, this cluster of seismicity has been implicated as both cause and consequence of the oft-cited discrepancy between geodetic velocities and geologic slip rates in this region (Dolan et al., 2007; Oskin et al., 2008). Whether other faults within the shear zone exhibit similar behavior remains uncertain. Here we report the preliminary results of new investigations of slip rates and seismic history along the Panamint Valley fault zone (PVFZ). The PVFZ is characterized by dextral, oblique-normal displacement along a moderately to shallowly-dipping range front fault. Previous workers (Zhang et al., 1990) identified a relatively recent surface rupture confined to a ~25 km segment of the southern fault zone and associated with dextral displacements of ~3 m. Our mapping reveals that youthful scarps ranging from 2-4 m in height are distributed along the central portion of the fault zone for at least 50 km. North of Ballarat, a releasing jog in the fault zone forms a 2-3 km long embayment. Displacement of debris-flow levees and channels along NE-striking faults that confirm that displacement is nearly dip-slip, consistent with an overall transport direction toward ~340°, and affording an opportunity to constrain fault displacement directly from the vertical offset of alluvial surfaces of varying age. At the mouth of Happy Canyon, the frontal fault strand displaces a fresh debris-flow by ~3-4 m; soil development atop the debris-flow surface is incipient to negligible. Radiocarbon ages from logs embedded in the flow matrix constrain the timing of the most recent event to younger than ~ 600 cal yr BP. Older alluvial surfaces, such as that

  5. Mud volcano monitoring and seismic events along the North Anatolian Fault (Sea of Marmara)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javad Fallahi, Mohammad; Lupi, Matteo; Mazzini, Adriano; Polonia, Alina; D'Alessandro, Antonino; D'Anna, Giuseppe; Gasperini, Luca

    2017-04-01

    The Sea of Marmara, a pull-apart basin formed along the northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system, is considered a seismic gap, that will be filled in the next decades by a large magnitude (M>7) earthquake, close to the Istanbul Metropolitan area (12 million inhabitants). For this reason, several marine geological and geophysical studies have been carried out in this region, starting from the destructive 1999 Mw 7.4 Izmit earthquake, to gather information relative to seismogenic potential of major fault strands. Together with these studies, in the frame of EC projects (i.e., MarmESONET and Marsite, among others), an intensive program of long-term monitoring of seismogenic faults was carried out using seafloor observatories deployed during several expeditions led by Italian, French and Turkish groups. These expeditions included MARM2013, on board of the R/V Urania, of the Italian CNR, when four ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) were deployed in the central part of the Sea of Marmara, at depths between 550 and 1000 m. One of the main aims of the experiment was to assess the long-term seismic activity along an active segment of the NAF, which connects the central and the western basins (depocenters), where the principal deformation zone appears relatively narrow and almost purely strike-slip. The present study shows the results of processing and analysis of continuous data records from these OBS stations during 50 days. We were able to detect seismic signal produced by an active mud volcano located close to the NAF trace, from about 3 to 6 km of distance from the OBS stations. Additionally, we captured the May 24, 2014, Mw 6.9 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the northern Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey, which caused serious damage on the Turkish island of Imbros and the cities of Edirne and Çanakkale, as well as on the Greek island of Lemnos. The earthquake nucleated on the westward continuation of the NAF system in the NE Aegean Sea, and was

  6. New Geologic Data on the Seismic Risks of the Most Dangerous Fault on Shore in Central Japan, the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okumura, K.; Kondo, H.; Toda, S.; Takada, K.; Kinoshita, H.

    2006-12-01

    Ten years have past since the first official assessment of the long-term seismic risks of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line active fault system (ISTL) in 1996. The disaster caused by the1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken-Nanbu) earthquake urged the Japanese government to initiated a national project to assess the long-term seismic risks of on-shore active faults using geologic information. ISTL was the first target of the 98 significant faults and the probability of a M7 to M8 event turned out to be the highest among them. After the 10 years of continued efforts to understand the ISTL, now it is getting ready to revise the assessment. Fault mapping and segmentation: The most active segment of the Gofukuji fault (~1 cm/yr left-lateral strike slip, R=500~800 yrs.) had been maped only for less than 10 km. Adjacent segments were much less active. This large slip on such a short segment was contradictory. However, detailed topographic study including Lidar survey revealed the length of the Gofukuji fault to be 25 km or more. High slip rate with frequent earthquakes may be restricted to the Gofukuji fault while the 1996 assessment modeled frequent >100 km rupture scenario. The geometry of the fault is controversial especially on the left-lateral strike-slip section of the ISTL. There are two models of high-angle Middel ISTL and low-angle Middle ISTL with slip partitioning. However, all geomorphic and shallow geologic data supports high-angle almost pure strike slip on the faults in the Middle ISTL. CRIEPI's 3- dimensional trenching in several sites as well as the previous results clearly demonstrated repeated pure strike-slip offset during past a few events. In Middle ISTL, there is no evidence of recent activity of pre-existing low-angle thrust faults that are inferred to be active from shallow seismic survey. Separation of high (~3000 m) mountain ranges and low (lack of reliable time constraints on past earthquakes. In order to solve this problem, we have carried out intensive

  7. Interactive system design using the complementarity of axiomatic design and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Do, Sung Hee; Lee, Tae Sik

    2007-01-01

    To efficiently design safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants, with requirement of high reliability, methodologies allowing for rigorous interactions between the synthesis and analysis processes have been proposed. This paper attempts to develop a reliability-centered design framework through an interactive process between Axiomatic Design (AD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Integrating AD and FTA into a single framework appears to be a viable solution, as they compliment each other with their unique advantages. AD provides a systematic synthesis tool while FTA is commonly used as a safety analysis tool. These methodologies build a design process that is less subjective, and they enable designers to develop insights that lead to solutions with improved reliability. Due to the nature of the two methodologies, the information involved in each process is complementary: a success tree versus a fault tree. Thus, at each step a system using AD is synthesized, and its reliability is then quantified using the FT derived from the AD synthesis process. The converted FT provides an opportunity to examine the completeness of the outcome from the synthesis process. This study presents an example of the design of a Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS). A case study illustrates the process of designing the CHRS with an interactive design framework focusing on the conversion of the AD process to FTA

  8. Decision tree and PCA-based fault diagnosis of rotating machinery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Weixiang; Chen, Jin; Li, Jiaqing

    2007-04-01

    After analysing the flaws of conventional fault diagnosis methods, data mining technology is introduced to fault diagnosis field, and a new method based on C4.5 decision tree and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed. In this method, PCA is used to reduce features after data collection, preprocessing and feature extraction. Then, C4.5 is trained by using the samples to generate a decision tree model with diagnosis knowledge. At last the tree model is used to make diagnosis analysis. To validate the method proposed, six kinds of running states (normal or without any defect, unbalance, rotor radial rub, oil whirl, shaft crack and a simultaneous state of unbalance and radial rub), are simulated on Bently Rotor Kit RK4 to test C4.5 and PCA-based method and back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The result shows that C4.5 and PCA-based diagnosis method has higher accuracy and needs less training time than BPNN.

  9. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze

    2011-01-01

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  10. Improving reliability of state estimation programming and computing suite based on analyzing a fault tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolosok Irina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information on the current state parameters obtained as a result of processing the measurements from systems of the SCADA and WAMS data acquisition and processing through methods of state estimation (SE is a condition that enables to successfully manage an energy power system (EPS. SCADA and WAMS systems themselves, as any technical systems, are subject to failures and faults that lead to distortion and loss of information. The SE procedure enables to find erroneous measurements, therefore, it is a barrier for the distorted information to penetrate into control problems. At the same time, the programming and computing suite (PCS implementing the SE functions may itself provide a wrong decision due to imperfection of the software algorithms and errors. In this study, we propose to use a fault tree to analyze consequences of failures and faults in SCADA and WAMS and in the very SE procedure. Based on the analysis of the obtained measurement information and on the SE results, we determine the state estimation PCS fault tolerance level featuring its reliability.

  11. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze, E-mail: yansz@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Tribology, Department of Precision Instruments and Mechanology, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 (China)

    2011-07-19

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  12. Seismic investigation on the Littoral Faults Zone in the northern continental margin of South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J.; Xu, H.; Xia, S.; Cao, J.; Wan, K.

    2017-12-01

    The continental margin of the northern South China Sea (SCS) had experienced continuous evolution from an active continental margin in the late Mesozoic to a passive continental margin in the Cenozoic. The 1200km-long Littoral Faults Zone (LFZ) off the mainland South China was suggested to represent one of the sub-plate boundaries and play a key role during the evolution. Besides, four devastating earthquakes with magnitude over 7 and another 11 destructive events with M>6 were documented to have occurred along the LFZ. However, its approximity to the shoreline, the shallow water depth, and the heavy fishing activities make it hard to conduct a marine seismic investigation. As a result, understandings about the LFZ before 2000 were relatively poor and mostly descriptive. After two experiments of joint onshore-offshore wide-angle seismic surveys in the 1st decade of this century, several cruses aiming to unveil the deep structure of the LFZ were performed in the past few years, with five joint onshore-offshore wide-angle seismic survey profiles completed. Each of these profiles is perpendicular to the shoreline, with four to five seismometers of campaign mode deployed on the landside and over ten Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs) spacing at 20km deployed on the seaside. Meanwhile, multi-channel seismic (MCS) data along these profiles were obtained simultaneously. Based on these data, velocity models from both forward modeling and inversion were obtained. According to these models, the LFZ was imaged to be a low-velocity fractured zone dipping to the SSE-SE at a high-angle and cutting through the thinned continental crust at some locations. Width of the fractured zone varies from 6km to more than 10km from site to site. With these results, it is suggested that the LFZ accommodates the stresses from both the east side, where the Eurasia/Philippine Sea plate converging and mountain building is ongoing, and the west side, where a strike-slip between the Indochina

  13. Proterozoic structure, cambrian rifting, and younger faulting as revealed by a regional seismic reflection network in the Southern Illinois Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C.J.; Drahovzal, James A.; Sargent, M.L.; McBride, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    Four high-quality seismic reflection profiles through the southern Illinois Basin, totaling 245 km in length, provide an excellent regional subsurface stratigraphic and structural framework for evaluation of seismic risk, hydrocarbon occurrence, and other regional geologic studies. These data provide extensive subsurface information on the geometry of the intersection of the Cambrian Reelfoot and Rough Creek rifts, on extensive Proterozoic reflection sequences, and on structures (including the Fluorspar Area Fault Complex and Hicks Dome) that underlie a transitional area between the well-defined New Madrid seismic zone (to the southwest) and a more diffuse area of seismicity in the southern Illinois Basin. Our principal interpretations from these data are listed here in order of geologic age, from oldest to youngest: 1. Prominent Proterozoic layering, possibly equivalent to Proterozoic (???1 Ga) Middle Run Formation clastic strata and underlying (1.3-1.5 Ga) volcanic rocks of the East Continent rift basin, has been strongly deformed, probably as part of the Grenville foreland fold and thrust belt. 2. A well-defined angular unconformity is seen in many places between Proterozoic and Cambrian strata; a post-Grenville Proterozoic sequence is also apparent locally, directly beneath the base of the Cambrian. 3. We infer a major reversal in Cambrian rift polarity (accommodation zone) in the Rough Creek Graben in western Kentucky. 4. Seismic facies analysis suggests the presence of basin-floor fan complexes at and near the base of the Cambrian interval and within parts of a Proterozoic post-Grenville sequence in several parts of the Rough Creek Graben. 5. There is an abrupt pinchout of the Mount Simon Sandstone against crystalline basement beneath the Dale Dome (near the Texaco no. 1 Cuppy well, Hamilton County) in southeastern Illinois, and a more gradual Mount Simon pinchout to the southeast. 6. Where crossed by the seismic reflection line in southeast Illinois, some

  14. Human Factors Reliability Analysis for Assuring Nuclear Safety Using Fuzzy Fault Tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisawy, E.A.-F. I.; Sallam, H.

    2016-01-01

    In order to ensure effective prevention of harmful events, the risk assessment process cannot ignore the role of humans in the dynamics of accidental events and thus the seriousness of the consequences that may derive from them. Human reliability analysis (HRA) involves the use of qualitative and quantitative methods to assess the human contribution to risk. HRA techniques have been developed in order to provide human error probability values associated with operators’ tasks to be included within the broader context of system risk assessment, and are aimed at reducing the probability of accidental events. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a graphical model that displays the various combinations of equipment failures and human errors that can result in the main system failure of interest. FTA is a risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an event. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing, and even if available, is subject to incompleteness and imprecision or vagueness. Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, FTA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. To solve this problem, qualitative justification in the context of failure possibilities can be used as alternative for quantitative justification. In this paper, we introduce the approach of fuzzy reliability as solution for fault tree analysis drawbacks. A new fuzzy fault tree method is proposed for the analysis of human reliability based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations t-norms, co-norms, defuzzification, and fuzzy failure probability. (author)

  15. Application of fault tree analysis for customer reliability assessment of a distribution power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul Rahman, Fariz; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Lee, John C.

    2013-01-01

    A new method is developed for predicting customer reliability of a distribution power system using the fault tree approach with customer weighted values of component failure frequencies and downtimes. Conventional customer reliability prediction of the electric grid employs the system average (SA) component failure frequency and downtime that are weighted by only the quantity of the components in the system. These SA parameters are then used to calculate the reliability and availability of components in the system, and eventually to find the effect on customer reliability. Although this approach is intuitive, information is lost regarding customer disturbance experiences when customer information is not utilized in the SA parameter calculations, contributing to inaccuracies when predicting customer reliability indices in our study. Hence our new approach directly incorporates customer disturbance information in component failure frequency and downtime calculations by weighting these parameters with information of customer interruptions. This customer weighted (CW) approach significantly improves the prediction of customer reliability indices when applied to our reliability model with fault tree and two-state Markov chain formulations. Our method has been successfully applied to an actual distribution power system that serves over 2.1 million customers. Our results show an improved benchmarking performance on the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) by 26% between the SA-based and CW-based reliability calculations. - Highlights: ► We model the reliability of a power system with fault tree and two-state Markov chain. ► We propose using customer weighted component failure frequencies and downtimes. ► Results show customer weighted values perform superior to component average values. ► This method successfully incorporates customer disturbance information into the model.

  16. Geothermal and seismic evidence for a southeastern continuation of the three pagodas fault zone into the Gulf of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prinya Putthapiban

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerial photographic maps and landsat image interpretations suggest the major fault segments of the Three PagodaFault (TPF Zone and Sri Swat Fault (SSF Zone are oriented parallel or sub-parallel in the same NW-SE directions. The KwaeNoi River is running along the TPF in the south whereas the Kwae Yai River is running along the SSF in the north. Thesoutheastern continuation of both faults is obscured by thick Cenozoic sediments. Hence, surface lineaments cannot betraced with confidence. However, based on some interpretations of the airborne magnetic survey data, the trace of such faultsare designated to run through the western part of Bangkok and the northern end of the Gulf of Thailand. Paleo-earthquakesand the presence of hot springs along the fault zones indicate that they are tectonically active. The changes of both physicaland chemical properties of the water from Hin Dart Hot Spring and those of the surface water from a shallow well at Ban KhaoLao during the Great Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on 26th of December 2004 clearly indicated that the southeastern continuation of the TPF is at least as far south as Pak Tho District, Ratburi. Our new evidence of the alignment of the high heatflow in the upper part of the Gulf of Thailand verified that the TPF also extend into the Gulf via Samut Songkhram Province.Studies of the seismic data from two survey lines along the Western part of the upper Gulf of Thailand acquired by BritoilPlc. in 1986, namely Line A which is approximately 60 km long, starting from Bang Khen passing through Bang Khae andending in Samut Songkhram and Line B is approximately 30 km long starting from Samut Sakon ending in Samut Song Khramsuggest that all the faults or fractures along these seismic profiles are covered by sediments of approximately 230 m thickwhich explain that the fault underneath these seismic lines is quite old and may not be active. The absent of sign or trace ofthe TPF Path to the west suggested that there

  17. Parabolic distribution of circumeastern Snake River Plain seismicity and latest Quaternary faulting: Migratory pattern and association with the Yellowstone hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, Mark H.; Geissman, John Wm.; Piety, Lucille A.; Sullivan, J. Timothy

    1989-02-01

    The Intermountain and Idaho seismic belts within Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana form an unusual parabolic pattern about the axis of the aseismic eastern Snake River Plain (SRP). This pattern is also reflected in the distribution of latest Quaternary normal faults. Several late Cenozoic normal faults that trend perpendicular to the axis of the eastern SRP extend from the aseismic region to the region of latest Quaternary faulting and seismicity. A study of the late Miocene to Holocene displacement history of one of these, the Grand Valley fault system in southeastern Idaho and western Wyoming, indicates that a locus of high displacement rates has migrated away from the eastern SRP to its present location in southern Star Valley in western Wyoming. In Swan Valley the studied area closest to the eastern SRP, isotopic ages, and paleomagnetic data for over 300 samples from 47 sites on well-exposed late Cenozoic volcanic rocks (the tuff of Spring Creek, the tuff of Heise, the Huckleberry Ridge tuff, the Pine Creek Basalt, and an older tuff thought to be the tuff of Cosgrove Road) are used to demonstrate differences in the displacement rate on the Grand Valley fault over the last ˜10 m.y. Tectonic tilts for these volcanic rocks are estimated by comparing the results of paleomagnetic analyses in Swan Valley to similar analyses of samples from undeformed volcanic rocks outside of Swan Valley. Basin geometry and tilt axes are established using seismic reflection profiles and field mapping. Combining these data with the tilt data makes it possible to calculate displacement rates during discrete temporal intervals. An average displacement rate of ˜1.8 mm/yr is calculated for the Grand Valley fault in Swan Valley between 4.4 and 2.0 Ma. In the subsequent 2.0-m.y. interval the rate dropped 2 orders of magnitude to ˜0.014 mm/yr; during the preceding 5.5-m.y. interval the displacement rate is ˜0.15 mm/yr, or about 1 order of magnitude less than the rate between 4.4 and 2.0 Ma

  18. Digraph-fault tree methodology for the assessment of material control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.; Lim, J.J.; Gilman, F.M.

    1979-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, under contract to the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, is developing a procedure to assess the effectiveness of material control and accounting systems at nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The purpose of a material control and accounting system is to prevent the theft of special nuclear material such as plutonium or highly enriched uranium. This report presents the use of a directed graph and fault tree analysis methodology in the assessment procedure. This methodology is demonstrated by assessing a simulated material control system design, the Test Bed

  19. Efficient algorithms to assess component and gate importance in fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.

    2001-01-01

    One of the principal activities of risk assessment is either the ranking or the categorization of structures, systems and components with respect to their risk-significance or their safety-significance. Several measures, so-called importance factors, of such a significance have been proposed for the case where the support model is a fault tree. In this article, we show how binary decision diagrams can be use to assess efficiently a number of classical importance factors. This work completes the preliminary results obtained recently by Andrews and Sinnamon, and the authors. It deals also with the concept of joint reliability importance

  20. Failure mode analysis using state variables derived from fault trees with application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomew, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is used extensively to assess both the qualitative and quantitative reliability of engineered nuclear power systems employing many subsystems and components. FTA is very useful, but the method is limited by its inability to account for failure mode rate-of-change interdependencies (coupling) of statistically independent failure modes. The state variable approach (using FTA-derived failure modes as states) overcomes these difficulties and is applied to the determination of the lifetime distribution function for a heat pipe-thermoelectric nuclear power subsystem. Analyses are made using both Monte Carlo and deterministic methods and compared with a Markov model of the same subsystem

  1. A general method dealing with correlations in uncertainty propagation in fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Zhang

    1989-01-01

    This paper deals with the correlations among the failure probabilities (frequencies) of not only the identical basic events but also other basic events in a fault tree. It presents a general and simple method to include these correlations in uncertainty propagation. Two examples illustrate this method and show that neglecting these correlations results in large underestimation of the top event failure probability (frequency). One is the failure of the primary pump in a chemical reactor cooling system, the other example is an accident to a road transport truck carrying toxic waste. (author)

  2. Fault tree and reliability relationships for analyzing noncoherent two-state systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.; Benson, H.J.

    1980-01-01

    Recently, there has been interest in analyzing the noncoherent interactions that result from adversary theft of special nuclear material from reprocessing facilities. The actions of the adversary, acting in conflict with the reprocessing facility's material control and accounting system, may be viewed as a single noncoherent structure. This paper develops a basis for analyzing noncoherent structures by decomposing them into coherent subsystems. Both reliability and fault tree structure functions are used for this analysis. In addition, a bounding criterion is established for the reliability of statistically dependent noncoherent structures. (orig.)

  3. Calculating Nuclear Power Plant Vulnerability Using Integrated Geometry and Event/Fault-Tree Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peplow, Douglas E.; Sulfredge, C. David; Sanders, Robert L.; Morris, Robert H.; Hann, Todd A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the events of September 11, 2001, the vulnerability of nuclear power plants to terrorist attacks has become a national concern. The results of vulnerability analysis are greatly influenced by the computational approaches used. Standard approximations used in fault-tree analysis are not applicable for attacks, where high component failure probabilities are expected; two methods that do work with high failure probabilities are presented. Different blast modeling approaches can also affect the end results. Modeling the structural details of facility buildings and the geometric layout of components within the buildings is required to yield meaningful results

  4. Results of a directed graph and fault tree assessment of a MC and A system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilman, F.M.; Lambert, H.E.; Lim, J.J.

    1978-01-01

    An assessment of the effectiveness of the Material Control and Accounting System (MC and A) in a hypothetical nuclear facility, the TEST BED is presented. The key in assessing the TEST BED is the generation of adversary event sets. The adversary event sets are generated and analyzed by a directed graph (digraph) and fault tree procedure. Although the TEST BED is a system hardened against SNM theft, the assessment of the TEST BED finds several major weaknesses, and also indicates possible modifications to correct these weaknesses

  5. Study on seismic hazard assessment of large active fault systems. Evolution of fault systems and associated geomorphic structures: fault model test and field survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueta, Keichi; Inoue, Daiei; Miyakoshi, Katsuyoshi; Miyagawa, Kimio; Miura, Daisuke

    2003-01-01

    Sandbox experiments and field surveys were performed to investigate fault system evolution and fault-related deformation of ground surface, the Quaternary deposits and rocks. The summary of the results is shown below. 1) In the case of strike-slip faulting, the basic fault sequence runs from early en echelon faults and pressure ridges through linear trough. The fault systems associated with the 2000 western Tottori earthquake are shown as en echelon pattern that characterize the early stage of wrench tectonics, therefore no thoroughgoing surface faulting was found above the rupture as defined by the main shock and aftershocks. 2) Low-angle and high-angle reverse faults commonly migrate basinward with time, respectively. With increasing normal fault displacement in bedrock, normal fault develops within range after reverse fault has formed along range front. 3) Horizontal distance of surface rupture from the bedrock fault normalized by the height of the Quaternary deposits agrees well with those of model tests. 4) Upward-widening damage zone, where secondary fractures develop, forms in the handing wall side of high-angle reverse fault at the Kamioka mine. (author)

  6. Study of fault configuration related mysteries through multi seismic attribute analysis technique in Zamzama gas field area, southern Indus Basin, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabeer Ahmed Abbasi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Seismic attribute analysis approach has been applied for the interpretation and identification of fault geometry of Zamzama Gas Field. Zamzama gas field area, which lies in the vicinity of Kirthar fold and thrust belt, Southern Indus Basin of Pakistan. The Zamzama fault and its related structure have been predicted by applying the Average Energy Attribute, Instantaneous Frequency Attribute, relative Acoustic Impedance Attribute and Chaotic Reflection Attribute on the seismic line GHPK98A.34. The results have been confirmed by applying the spectral decomposition attribute on the same seismic line that reveal the geometric configuration of Zamzama structure. The fault is reverse and started from 0 s and ended at the depth of 2.5 s on the vertical seismic section. Hanging wall moves up along the fault plane under the action of eastward oriented stress, which formed a large north–south oriented and eastward verging thrusted anticline.

  7. SALP-PC, a computer program for fault tree analysis on personal computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contini, S.; Poucet, A.

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents the main characteristics of the SALP-PC computer code for fault tree analysis. The program has been developed in Fortran 77 on an Olivetti M24 personal computer (IBM compatible) in order to reach a high degree of portability. It is composed of six processors implementing the different phases of the analysis procedure. This particular structure presents some advantages like, for instance, the restart facility and the possibility to develop an event tree analysis code. The set of allowed logical operators, i.e. AND, OR, NOT, K/N, XOR, INH, together with the possibility to define boundary conditions, make the SALP-PC code a powerful tool for risk assessment. (orig.)

  8. Implications for stress changes along the Motagua fault and other nearby faults using GPS and seismic constraints on the M=7.3 2009 Swan Islands earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, S. E.; Rodriguez, M.; Rogers, R. D.; Strauch, W.; Hernandez, D.; Demets, C.

    2010-12-01

    The May 28, 2009 M=7.3 Swan Islands earthquake off the north coast of Honduras caused significant damage in the northern part of the country, including seven deaths. This event, the largest in the region for several decades, ruptured the offshore continuation of the Motagua-Polochic fault system, whose 1976 earthquake (located several hundred kilometers to the southwest of the 2009 epicenter) caused more than 23,000 deaths in Central America and left homeless 20% of Guatemala’s population. We use elastic half-space modeling of coseismic offsets measured at 39 GPS stations in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala to better understand the slip source of the recent Swan Islands earthquake. Measured offsets range from .32 meters at a campaign site near the Motagua fault in northern Honduras to 4 millimeters at five continuous sites in El Salvador. Coulomb stress calculations based on the estimated distribution of coseismic slip will be presented and compared to earthquake focal mechanisms and aftershock locations determined from a portable seismic network that was installed in northern Honduras after the main shock. Implications of the Swan Islands rupture for the seismically hazardous Motagua-Polochic fault system will be described.

  9. User's manual of a computer code for seismic hazard evaluation for assessing the threat to a facility by fault model. SHEAT-FM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Onizawa, Kunio; Suzuki, Masahide

    2005-09-01

    To establish the reliability evaluation method for aged structural component, we developed a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation code SHEAT-FM (Seismic Hazard Evaluation for Assessing the Threat to a facility site - Fault Model) using a seismic motion prediction method based on fault model. In order to improve the seismic hazard evaluation, this code takes the latest knowledge in the field of earthquake engineering into account. For example, the code involves a group delay time of observed records and an update process model of active fault. This report describes the user's guide of SHEAT-FM, including the outline of the seismic hazard evaluation, specification of input data, sample problem for a model site, system information and execution method. (author)

  10. Investigating effects of near fault rupture directivity on seismic hazard assessment of the site of Tehran Research Reactor (TRR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanloo, Kamran; Saberi, Reza [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Alinejad, Majid [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Bazarchi, Ehsan [Tabriz Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-10-15

    It is estimated that the occurrence of a major-earthquake in Tehran, Iran, which is not far-fetched, would face the country with a huge amount of collapsed structures, economical losses and fatalities. The issue becomes more important while the site of interest is attributed to the nuclear facilities and any under-estimation in predicting the design ground motion may cause a real disaster. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, PSHA was conducted for the site of TRR. It was concluded that most of the hazard for considered site in a 10000-year period comes from distances lower than 20 km and considering rupture directivity effects of the North Tehran fault, as the nearest seismicity source to considered site, using narrowband method affected the response spectrum significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.

  11. Investigating effects of near fault rupture directivity on seismic hazard assessment of the site of Tehran Research Reactor (TRR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepanloo, Kamran; Saberi, Reza; Alinejad, Majid; Bazarchi, Ehsan

    2017-01-01

    It is estimated that the occurrence of a major-earthquake in Tehran, Iran, which is not far-fetched, would face the country with a huge amount of collapsed structures, economical losses and fatalities. The issue becomes more important while the site of interest is attributed to the nuclear facilities and any under-estimation in predicting the design ground motion may cause a real disaster. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, PSHA was conducted for the site of TRR. It was concluded that most of the hazard for considered site in a 10000-year period comes from distances lower than 20 km and considering rupture directivity effects of the North Tehran fault, as the nearest seismicity source to considered site, using narrowband method affected the response spectrum significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.

  12. Kinematics and Seismotectonics of the Montello Thrust Fault (Southeastern Alps, Italy) Revealed by Local GPS and Seismic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serpelloni, E.; Anderlini, L.; Cavaliere, A.; Danesi, S.; Pondrelli, S.; Salimbeni, S.; Danecek, P.; Massa, M.; Lovati, S.

    2014-12-01

    The southern Alps fold-and-thrust belt (FTB) in northern Italy is a tectonically active area accommodating large part of the ~N-S Adria-Eurasia plate convergence, that in the southeastern Alps ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 mm/yr, as constrained by a geodetically defined rotation pole. Because of the high seismic hazard of northeastern Italy, the area is well monitored at a regional scale by seismic and GPS networks. However, more localized seismotectonic and kinematic features, at the scale of the fault segments, are not yet resolved, limiting our knowledge about the seismic potential of the different fault segments belonging to the southeastern Alps FTB. Here we present the results obtained from the analysis of data collected during local seismic and geodetic experiments conducted installing denser geophysical networks across the Montello-Bassano-Belluno system, a segment of the FTB that is presently characterized by a lower sismicity rate with respect to the surrounding domains. The Montello anticline, which is the southernmost tectonic features of the southeastern Alps FTB (located ~15 km south of the mountain front), is a nice example of growing anticline associated with a blind thrust fault. However, how the Adria-Alps convergence is partitioned across the FTB and the seismic potential of the Montello thrust (the area has been struck by a Mw~6.5 in 1695 but the causative fault is still largely debated) remained still unresolved. The new, denser, GPS data show that this area is undergoing among the highest geodetic deformation rates of the entire south Alpine chain, with a steep velocity gradient across the Montello anticline. The earthquakes recorded during the experiment, precisely relocated with double difference methods, and the new earthquake focal mechanisms well correlate with available information about sub-surface geological structures and highlight the seismotectonic activity of the Montello thrust fault. We model the GPS velocities using elastic

  13. Fault-Magma Interactions during Early Continental Rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, A.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Aman, M.; Lambert, C.; Roecker, S. W.; Tiberi, C.; Muirhead, J.

    2017-12-01

    Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13-month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87 ± 0.03. Focal mechanisms for 66 earthquakes, and a longer time period of relocated earthquakes from global arrays reveal an along-axis stress rotation of 50 o ( N150 oE) in the magmatically active zone. Using Kostrov summation of local and teleseismic mechanisms, we find opening directions of N122ºE and N92ºE north and south of the magmatically active zone. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies, and more dike intrusions with surface faulting, eruptions, and earthquakes are expected.

  14. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  15. The fault tree as a tool in safety analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waddington, J.G.; Wild, A.

    1981-01-01

    Modern safety analysis must be able to identify realistic failure modes based on realistic operation and system malfunction, demonstrate rigorously that adequate independence exists between a malfunctioning system and those other systems required to mitigate the effects of the malfunction, design adequate reliability into systems important to plant safety and to demonstrate rigorously that the design reliability is met in operation, and identify the realistic actions expected of the operator. Fault trees, which have proved to be a powerful tool to achieve these objectives, are inevitably large and must be computerized. However, the computerized system must be simple, must allow merging of branches developed independently, must provide for easy modification and the processing must be economical and easily accessible. A new system for displaying, plotting and analysing fault trees has been developed and implemented on a small computer at AECB to demonstrate the viability of the approach to designers, and to provide a tool to assess licensee's submissions on failure modes of support systems such as electrical, service water and air, and to assess reliability predictions for special safety systems. (author)

  16. Safety analyses of potential exposure in medical irradiation plants by Fuzzy Fault Tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casamirra, Maddalena; Castiglia, Francesco; Giardina, Mariarosa; Tomarchio, Elio

    2008-01-01

    The results of Fuzzy Fault Tree (FFT) analyses of various accidental scenarios, which involve the operators in potential exposures inside an High Dose Rate (HDR) remote after-loading systems for use in brachytherapy, are reported. To carry out fault tree analyses by means of fuzzy probabilities, the TREEZZY2 computer code is used. Moreover, the HEART (Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) model, properly modified on the basis of the fuzzy approach, has been employed to assess the impact of performances haping and error-promoting factors in the context of the accidental events. The assessment of potential dose values for some identified accidental scenarios allows to consider, for a particular event, a fuzzy uncertainty range in potential dose estimate. The availability of lower and upper limits allows evaluating the possibility of optimization of the installation from the point of view of radiation protection. The adequacy of the training and information program for staff and patients (and their family members) and the effectiveness of behavioural rules and safety procedures were tested. Some recommendations on procedures and equipment to reduce the risk of radiological exposure are also provided. (author)

  17. A systematic fault tree analysis based on multi-level flow modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gofuku, Akio; Ohara, Ai

    2010-01-01

    The fault tree analysis (FTA) is widely applied for the safety evaluation of a large-scale and mission-critical system. Because the potential of the FTA, however, strongly depends on human skill of analyzers, problems are pointed out in (1) education and training, (2) unreliable quality, (3) necessity of expertise knowledge, and (4) update of FTA results after the reconstruction of a target system. To get rid of these problems, many techniques to systematize FTA activities by applying computer technologies have been proposed. However, these techniques only use structural information of a target system and do not use functional information that is one of important properties of an artifact. The principle of FTA is to trace comprehensively cause-effect relations from a top undesirable effect to anomaly causes. The tracing is similar to the causality estimation technique that the authors proposed to find plausible counter actions to prevent or to mitigate the undesirable behavior of plants based on the model by a functional modeling technique, Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM). The authors have extended this systematic technique to construct a fault tree (FT). This paper presents an algorithm of systematic construction of FT based on MFM models and demonstrates the applicability of the extended technique by the FT construction result of a cooling plant of nitric acid. (author)

  18. Presentation of common cause failures in fault tree structure of Krsko PSA : an historical overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Kosutic, I.; Vukovic, I.; Simic, Z.

    2003-01-01

    Failure of multiple components due to a common cause represents one of the most important issues in evaluation of system reliability or unavailability. The frequency of such events has relatively low expectancy, when compared to random failures, which affect individual components. However, in many cases the consequence is a direct loss of safety system or mitigative safety function. For this reason, the modeling of a common cause failure (CCF) and its presentation in fault tree structure is of the uttermost importance in probabilistic safety analyses (PSA). During the past decade, PSA model of Krsko NPP has undergone many small changes and a couple of major ones in fulfilling its basic purpose, which was serving as a tool for providing an appropriate information on the risk associated with actual plant design and operation. All changes to Krsko PSA model were undertaken in order to make it a better tool and / or to make it represent the plant in more accurate manner. The paper provides an overview of changes in CCF modeling in the fault tree structure from the initial PSA model development till present. (author)

  19. Testing digital safety system software with a testability measure based on a software fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, Se Do; Hyun Seong, Poong

    2006-01-01

    Using predeveloped software, a digital safety system is designed that meets the quality standards of a safety system. To demonstrate the quality, the design process and operating history of the product are reviewed along with configuration management practices. The application software of the safety system is developed in accordance with the planned life cycle. Testing, which is a major phase that takes a significant time in the overall life cycle, can be optimized if the testability of the software can be evaluated. The proposed testability measure of the software is based on the entropy of the importance of basic statements and the failure probability from a software fault tree. To calculate testability, a fault tree is used in the analysis of a source code. With a quantitative measure of testability, testing can be optimized. The proposed testability can also be used to demonstrate whether the test cases based on uniform partitions, such as branch coverage criteria, result in homogeneous partitions that is known to be more effective than random testing. In this paper, the testability measure is calculated for the modules of a nuclear power plant's safety software. The module testing with branch coverage criteria required fewer test cases if the module has higher testability. The result shows that the testability measure can be used to evaluate whether partitions have homogeneous characteristics

  20. Timing analysis of safety properties using fault trees with time dependencies and timed state-charts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magott, Jan; Skrobanek, Pawel

    2012-01-01

    Behavior in time domain is often crucial for safety critical systems. Standard fault trees cannot express time-dependent behavior. In the paper, timing analysis of safety properties using fault trees with time dependencies (FTTDs) and timed state-charts is presented. A new version of timed state-charts (TSCs) is also proposed. These state-charts can model the dynamics of technical systems, e.g. controllers, controlled objects, and people. In TSCs, activity and communication times are represented by time intervals. In the proposed approach the structure of FTTD is fixed by a human. Time properties of events and gates of FTTD are expressed by time intervals, and are calculated using TSCs. The minimal and maximal values of these time intervals of FTTD can be calculated by finding paths with minimal and maximal time lengths in TSCs, which is an NP-hard problem. In order to reduce the practical complexity of computing the FTTD time parameters, some reductions of TSCs are defined in the paper, such as sequential, alternative, loop (iteration), and parallel. Some of the reductions are intuitive, in case of others—theorems are required. Computational complexity of each reduction is not greater than linear in the size of reduced TSC. Therefore, the obtained results enable decreasing of the costs of FTTD time parameters calculation when system dynamics is expressed by TSCs. Case study of a railroad crossing with a controller that controls semaphores, gate, light-audio signal close to the gate will be analyzed.

  1. The completeness of fault tree analysis in the presence of dependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, R.P.

    1989-02-01

    Existing standard fault tree assessments of systems do not include an assessment of the effects of dependencies in an integrated fashion, but simply add on a ''common cause cut-off''. To support the values used for this cut-off, cut-sets involving certain groups of components susceptible to dependent failure can be assessed using the Distributed Failure Probability method. These rank one contributions do not cover all the possibilities, however, so there is an outstanding need for an integrated procedure for dependent failure assessment of systems which allows for all ranks of cut-set. The purpose of this note is to provide such a procedure which builds upon the standard approach to fault tree analysis. In this standard approach, only a limited number of cut-sets is found, and they are evaluated assuming independence of their components. So, some cut-sets are neglected which could be important contributors to the system failure probability if their components are not independent of each other. The procedure developed therefore deals with this truncation problem and with dependency together. The result is a practical and efficient method for bounding system failure probabilities. The method is a progressive one, whereby this bound is reduced as necessary by a more refined analysis. A simple example is used to illustrate the procedure. (author)

  2. Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de.

    1984-01-01

    This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

  3. Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

    2017-03-01

    Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

  4. How Might Draining Lake Campotosto Affect Stress and Seismicity on the Monte Gorzano Normal Fault, Central Italy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdecchia, A.; Deng, K.; Harrington, R. M.; Liu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    It is broadly accepted that large variations of water level in reservoirs may affect the stress state on nearby faults. While most studies consider the relationship between lake impoundment and the occurrence of large earthquakes or seismicity rate increases in the surrounding region, very few examples focus on the effects of lake drainage. The second largest reservoir in Europe, Lake Campotosto, is located on the hanging wall of the Monte Gorzano fault, an active normal fault responsible for at least two M ≥ 6 earthquakes in historical times. The northern part of this fault ruptured during the August 24, 2016, Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake, increasing the probability for a future large event on the southern section where an aftershock sequence is still ongoing. The proximity of the Campotosto reservoir to the active fault aroused general concern with respect to the stability of the three dams bounding the reservoir if the southern part of the Monte Gorzano fault produces a moderate earthquake. Local officials have proposed draining the reservoir as hazard mitigation strategy to avoid possible future catastrophes. In efforts to assess how draining the reservoir might affect earthquake nucleation on the fault, we use a finite-element poroelastic model to calculate the evolution of stress and pore pressure in terms of Coulomb stress changes that would be induced on the Monte Gorzano fault by emptying the Lake Campotosto reservoir. Preliminary results show that an instantaneous drainage of the lake will produce positive Coulomb stress changes, mostly on the shallower part of the fault (0 to 2 km), while a stress drop of the order of 0.2 bar is expected on the Monte Gorzano fault between 0 and 8 km depth. Earthquake hypocenters on the southern portion of the fault currently nucleate between 5 and 13 km depth, with activity distributed nearby the reservoir. Upcoming work will model the effects of varying fault geometry and elastic parameters, including geological

  5. Imaging Stress Transients and Fault Zone Processes with Crosswell Continuous Active-Source Seismic Monitoring at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, F.; Taira, T.; Daley, T. M.; Marchesini, P.; Robertson, M.; Wood, T.

    2017-12-01

    Recent field and laboratory experiments identify seismic velocity changes preceding microearthquakes and rock failure (Niu et al., 2008, Nature; Scuderi et al., 2016, NatureGeo), which indicates that a continuous monitoring of seismic velocity might provide a mean of understanding of the earthquake nucleation process. Crosswell Continuous Active-Source Seismic Monitoring (CASSM) using borehole sources and sensors has proven to be an effective tool for measurements of seismic velocity and its temporal variation at seismogenic depth (Silver, et al, 2007, BSSA; Daley, et al, 2007, Geophysics). To expand current efforts on the CASSM development, in June 2017 we have begun to conduct a year-long CASSM field experiment at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) in which the preceding field experiment detected the two sudden velocity reductions approximately 10 and 2 hours before microearthquakes (Niu et al., 2008, Nature). We installed a piezoelectric source and a three-component accelerometer at the SAFOD pilot and main holes ( 1 km depth) respectively. A seismic pulse was fired from the piezoelectric source four times per second. Each waveform was recorded 150-ms-long data with a sampling rate of 48 kHz. During this one-year experiment, we expect to have 10-15 microearthquakes (magnitude 1-3) occurring near the SAFOD site, and the data collected from the new experiment would allow us to further explore a relation between velocity changes and the Parkfield seismicity. Additionally, the year-long data provide a unique opportunity to study long-term velocity changes that might be related to seasonal stress variations at Parkfield (Johnson et al., 2017, Science). We will report on initial results of the SAFOD CASSM experiment and operational experiences of the CASSM development.

  6. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Chishan Fault in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun-Sung Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in southern Taiwan as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active faults in this area. The resultant Shake Map patterns of maximum ground motion in a case of Mw 7.2 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northeastern, central and northern parts of southwestern Kaohsiung as well as the southern part of central Tainan, as shown in the regions inside the yellow lines in the corresponding figure. Comparing cities with similar distances located in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung to the Chishan fault, the cities in Tainan area have relatively greater PGA and PGV, due to large site response factors in Tainan area. Furthermore, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are not completely dominated by the Chishan fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are marked with low site response amplification values from 0.55 - 1.1 and 0.67 - 1.22 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55 - 64. Another to pay special attention is Kaohsiung City has more than 540 thousand households whose residences over 50 years old. In light of the results of this study, I urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in southern Taiwan.

  7. Modeling of time-lapse multi-scale seismic monitoring of CO2 injected into a fault zone to enhance the characterization of permeability in enhanced geothermal systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R.; Borgia, A.; Daley, T. M.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Jung, Y.; Lee, K. J.; Doughty, C.; Altundas, B.; Chugunov, N.; Ramakrishnan, T. S.

    2017-12-01

    Subsurface permeable faults and fracture networks play a critical role for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) by providing conduits for fluid flow. Characterization of the permeable flow paths before and after stimulation is necessary to evaluate and optimize energy extraction. To provide insight into the feasibility of using CO2 as a contrast agent to enhance fault characterization by seismic methods, we model seismic monitoring of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) injected into a fault. During the CO2 injection, the original brine is replaced by scCO2, which leads to variations in geophysical properties of the formation. To explore the technical feasibility of the approach, we present modeling results for different time-lapse seismic methods including surface seismic, vertical seismic profiling (VSP), and a cross-well survey. We simulate the injection and production of CO2 into a normal fault in a system based on the Brady's geothermal field and model pressure and saturation variations in the fault zone using TOUGH2-ECO2N. The simulation results provide changing fluid properties during the injection, such as saturation and salinity changes, which allow us to estimate corresponding changes in seismic properties of the fault and the formation. We model the response of the system to active seismic monitoring in time-lapse mode using an anisotropic finite difference method with modifications for fracture compliance. Results to date show that even narrow fault and fracture zones filled with CO2 can be better detected using the VSP and cross-well survey geometry, while it would be difficult to image the CO2 plume by using surface seismic methods.

  8. Decision-table development for use with the CAT code for the automated fault-tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, J.S.; Salem, S.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    1977-01-01

    A library of decision tables to be used in connection with the CAT computer code for the automated construction of fault trees is presented. A decision table is constructed for each component type describing the output of the component in terms of its inputs and its internal states. In addition, a modification of the CAT code that couples it with a fault tree analysis code is presented. This report represents one aspect of a study entitled, 'A General Evaluation Approach to Risk-Benefit for Large Technological Systems, and Its Application to Nuclear Power.'

  9. Seismicity preliminary results in a geothermal and volcano activity area: study case Liquiñe-Ofqui fault system in Southern Andes, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estay, N. P.; Yáñez Morroni, G.; Crempien, J. G. F.; Roquer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Fluid transport through the crust takes place in domains with high permeability. For this reason, fault damage zones are a main feature where fluids may circulate unimpeded, since they have much larger permeability than normal country rocks. With the location of earthquakes, it is possible to infer fault geometry and stress field of the crust, therefore we can determine potential places where fluid circualtion is taking place. With that purpose, we installed a seismic network in an active volcanic-geothermal system, the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System (LOFS), located in Puyuhuapi, Southern Andes (44°-45°S). This allowed to link epicentral seismicity, focal mechanisms and surface expression of fluid circulation (hot-springs and volcanos). The LOFS is composed by two NS-striking dextral master faults, and several secondary NE-striking dextral and normal faults. Surface manifestation of fluid circulation in Puyuhuapi area are: 1) six hot-springs, most of them spatially associated with different mapped faults; 2) seven minor eruptive centers aligned over a 10-km-along one of the master NS-striking fault, and; 3) the Melimouyu strato-volcano without any spatial relationship with mapped faults. The network consists of 6 short period seismometers (S31f-2.0a sensor of IESE, with natural frequency of 2Hz), that were installed between July 2016 and August 2017; also 4 permanent broad-band seismometers (Guralp 6TD/ CD 24 sensor) which belong to the Volcano Observatory of Southern Andes (OVDAS). Preliminary results show a correlation between seismicity and surface manifestation of fluid circulation. Seismicity has a heterogeneous distribution: most of the earthquake are concentrated is the master NS-striking fault with fluid circulation manifestations; however along the segments without surface manifestation of fluids do not have seismicity. These results suggest that fluid circulation mostly occur in areas with high seismicity, and thus, the increment in fluid pressure enhances

  10. Creep avalanches on San Andreas Fault and their underlying mechanism from 19 years of InSAR and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshmanesh, M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recent seismic and geodetic observations indicate that interseismic creep rate varies in both time and space. The spatial extent of creep determines the earthquake potential, while its temporal evolution, known as slow slip events (SSE), may trigger earthquakes. Although the conditions promoting fault creep are well-established, the mechanism for initiating self-sustaining and sometimes cyclic creep events is enigmatic. Here we investigate a time series of 19 years of surface deformation measured by radar interferometry between 1992 and 2011 along the Central San Andreas Fault (CSAF) to constrain the temporal evolution of creep. We show that the creep rate along the CSAF has a sporadic behavior, quantified with a Gumbel-like probability distribution characterized by longer tail toward the extreme positive rates, which is signature of burst-like creep dynamics. Defining creep avalanches as clusters of isolated creep with rates exceeding the shearing rate of tectonic plates, we investigate the statistical properties of their size and length. We show that, similar to the frequency-magnitude distribution of seismic events, the distribution of potency estimated for creep avalanches along the CSAF follows a power law, dictated by the distribution of their along-strike lengths. We further show that an ensemble of concurrent creep avalanches which aseismically rupture isolated fault compartments form the semi-periodic SSEs observed along the CSAF. Using a rate and state friction model, we show that normal stress is temporally variable on the fault, and support this using seismic observations. We propose that, through a self-sustaining fault-valve behavior, compaction induced elevation of pore pressure within hydraulically isolated fault compartments, and subsequent frictional dilation is the cause for the observed episodic SSEs. We further suggest that the 2004 Parkfield Mw6 earthquake may have been triggered by the SSE on adjacent creeping segment, which increased Coulomb

  11. Thermo-Hydro-Micro-Mechanical 3D Modeling of a Fault Gouge During Co-seismic Slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papachristos, E.; Stefanou, I.; Sulem, J.; Donze, F. V.

    2017-12-01

    A coupled Thermo-Hydro-Micro-Mechanical (THMM) model based on the Discrete Elements method (DEM) is presented for studying the evolving fault gouge properties during pre- and co-seismic slip. Modeling the behavior of the fault gouge at the microscale is expected to improve our understanding on the various mechanisms that lead to slip weakening and finally control the transition from aseismic to seismic slip.The gouge is considered as a granular material of spherical particles [1]. Upon loading, the interactions between particles follow a frictional behavior and explicit dynamics. Using regular triangulation, a pore network is defined by the physical pore space between the particles. The network is saturated by a compressible fluid, and flow takes place following Stoke's equations. Particles' movement leads to pore deformation and thus to local pore pressure increase. Forces exerted from the fluid onto the particles are calculated using mid-step velocities. The fluid forces are then added to the contact forces resulting from the mechanical interactions before the next step.The same semi-implicit, two way iterative coupling is used for the heat-exchange through conduction.Simple tests have been performed to verify the model against analytical solutions and experimental results. Furthermore, the model was used to study the effect of temperature on the evolution of effective stress in the system and to highlight the role of thermal pressurization during seismic slip [2, 3].The analyses are expected to give grounds for enhancing the current state-of-the-art constitutive models regarding fault friction and shed light on the evolution of fault zone propertiesduring seismic slip.[1] Omid Dorostkar, Robert A Guyer, Paul A Johnson, Chris Marone, and Jan Carmeliet. On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122

  12. Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chun-Yong; Mooney, W.D.; Ding, Z.; Yang, J.; Yao, Z.; Lou, H.

    2009-01-01

    The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P- and S-wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S-wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S-wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30-45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1-2 km, while P-wave velocities are reduced by 7-20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P- and S-low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp. The low-velocity and low-Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

  13. Fault-magma interactions during early continental rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, A.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C. J.; Roecker, S.; Tiberi, C.; Aman, M.; Lambert, C.; Witkin, E.; Albaric, J.; Gautier, S.; Peyrat, S.; Muirhead, J. D.; Muzuka, A. N. N.; Mulibo, G.; Kianji, G.; Ferdinand-Wambura, R.; Msabi, M.; Rodzianko, A.; Hadfield, R.; Illsley-Kemp, F.; Fischer, T. P.

    2017-10-01

    Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2-D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13 month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3-D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes beneath the central basins and along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87 ± 0.03. Focal mechanisms for 65 earthquakes, and 13 from a catalogue prior to our array reveal an along-axis stress rotation of ˜60° in the magmatically active zone. New and prior mechanisms show predominantly normal slip along steep nodal planes, with extension directions ˜N90°E north and south of an active volcanic chain consistent with geodetic data, and ˜N150°E in the volcanic chain. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early-stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Results indicate that earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies.

  14. Crustal structure at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from deep seismic sounding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Baier

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The first deep seismic sounding experiment in Northwestern Anatolia was carried out in October 1991 as part of the "German - Turkish Project on Earthquake Prediction Research" in the Mudurnu area of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The experiment was a joint enterprise by the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of Frankfurt University, the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI in Ankara, and the Turkish Oil Company (TPAO. Two orthogonal profiles, each 120 km in length with a crossing point near Akyazi, were covered in succession by 30 short period tape recording seismograph stations with 2 km station spacing. 12 shots, with charge sizes between 100 and 250 kg, were fired and 342 seismograms out of 360 were used for evaluation. By coincidence an M b = 4.5 earthquake located below Imroz Island was also recorded and provided additional information on Moho and the sub-Moho velocity. A ray tracing method orginally developed by Weber (1986 was used for travel time inversion. From a compilation of all data two generalized crustal models were derived, one with velocity gradients within the layers and one with constant layer velocities. The latter consists of a sediment cover of about 2 km with V p » 3.6 km/s, an upper crystalline crust down to 13 km with V p » 5.9 km/s, a middle crust down to 25 km depth with V p » 6.5 km/s, a lower crust down to 39 km Moho depth with V p » 7.0 km/s and V p » 8.05 km/s below the Moho. The structure of the individual profiles differs slightly. The thickest sediment cover is reached in the Izmit-Sapanca-trough and in the Akyazi basin. Of particular interest is a step of about 4 km in the lower crust near Lake Sapanca and probably an even larger one in the Moho (derived from the Imroz earthquake data. After the catastrophic earthquake of Izmit on 17 August 1999 this significant heterogeneity in crustal structure appears in a new light with regard to the possible cause of the Izmit earthquake. Heterogeneities in

  15. Acoustic and seismic imaging of the Adra Fault (NE Alboran Sea: in search of the source of the 1910 Adra earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Gràcia

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently acquired swath-bathymetry data and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles offshore Adra (Almería, Spain reveal the surficial expression of a NW–SE trending 20 km-long fault, which we termed the Adra Fault. Seismic imaging across the structure depicts a sub-vertical fault reaching the seafloor surface and slightly dipping to the NE showing an along-axis structural variability. Our new data suggest normal displacement of the uppermost units with probably a lateral component. Radiocarbon dating of a gravity core located in the area indicates that seafloor sediments are of Holocene age, suggesting present-day tectonic activity. The NE Alboran Sea area is characterized by significant low-magnitude earthquakes and by historical records of moderate magnitude, such as the Mw = 6.1 1910 Adra Earthquake. The location, dimension and kinematics of the Adra Fault agree with the fault solution and magnitude of the 1910 Adra Earthquake, whose moment tensor analysis indicates normal-dextral motion. The fault seismic parameters indicate that the Adra Fault is a potential source of large magnitude (Mw ≤ 6.5 earthquakes, which represents an unreported seismic hazard for the neighbouring coastal areas.

  16. SEISMIC PICTURE OF A FAULT ZONE. WHAT CAN BE GAINED FROM THE ANALYSIS OF FINE PATTERNS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF WEAK EARTHQUAKE CENTERS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gevorg G. Kocharyan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Association of earthquake hypocenters with fault zones appears more pronounced in cases with more accurately determined positions of the earthquakes. For complex, branched structures of major fault zones, it is assumed that some of the earthquakes occur at feathering fractures of smaller scale.It is thus possible to develop a «seismological» criterion for definition of a zone of dynamic influence of faults, i.e. the zone containing the majority of earthquakes associated with the fault zone under consideration.In this publication, seismogenic structures of several fault zones located in the San-Andreas fault system are reviewed. Based on the data from a very dense network of digital seismic stations installed in this region and with application of modern data processing methods, differential coordinates of microearthquakes can be determined with errors of about first dozens of meters.It is thus possible to precisely detect boundaries of the areas wherein active deformation processes occur and to reveal spatial patterns of seismic event localization.In our analyses, data from the most comprehensive seismic catalog were used. The catalogue includes information on events which occurred and were registered in North California in the period between January 1984 and May 2003. In this publication, the seismic data processing results and regularities revealed during the analyses are compared with the data obtained from studies of fault structures, modeling and numerical simulation results. Results of quantitative research of regularities of localization of seismic sources inside fault zones are presented.It is demonstrated by 3D models that seismic events are localized in the vicinity of an almost plain surface with a nearly constant angle of dip, the majority of events being concentrated at that conventional surface.Detection of typical scopes of seismicity localization may prove critical for solution of problems of technogenic impact on fault zones

  17. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  18. An application of the fault tree analysis for the power system reliability estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

    2007-01-01

    The power system is a complex system with its main function to produce, transfer and provide consumers with electrical energy. Combinations of failures of components in the system can result in a failure of power delivery to certain load points and in some cases in a full blackout of power system. The power system reliability directly affects safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants because the loss of offsite power is a significant contributor to the core damage frequency in probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants. The method, which is based on the integration of the fault tree analysis with the analysis of the power flows in the power system, was developed and implemented for power system reliability assessment. The main contributors to the power system reliability are identified, both quantitatively and qualitatively. (author)

  19. Towards generating ECSS-compliant fault tree analysis results via ConcertoFLA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, B.; Haider, Z.; Carlsson, A.

    2018-05-01

    Attitude Control Systems (ACSs) maintain the orientation of the satellite in three-dimensional space. ACSs need to be engineered in compliance with ECSS standards and need to ensure a certain degree of dependability. Thus, dependability analysis is conducted at various levels and by using ECSS-compliant techniques. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of these techniques. FTA is being automated within various Model Driven Engineering (MDE)-based methodologies. The tool-supported CHESS-methodology is one of them. This methodology incorporates ConcertoFLA, a dependability analysis technique enabling failure behavior analysis and thus FTA-results generation. ConcertoFLA, however, similarly to other techniques, still belongs to the academic research niche. To promote this technique within the space industry, we apply it on an ACS and discuss about its multi-faceted potentialities in the context of ECSS-compliant engineering.

  20. Multi-state system in a fault tree analysis of a nuclear based thermochemical hydrogen plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Nuclear-based hydrogen generation is a promising way to supply hydrogen for this large market in the future. This thesis focuses on one of the most promising methods, a thermochemical Cu-Cl cycle, which is currently under development by UOIT, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) and the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The safety issues of the Cu-Cl cycle are addressed in this thesis. An investigation of major accident scenarios shows that potential tragedies can be avoided with effective risk analysis and safety management programs. As a powerful and systematic tool, fault tree analysis (FTA) is adapted to the particular needs of the Cu-Cl system. This thesis develops a new method that combines FTA with a reliability analysis tool, multi-state system (MSS), to improve the accuracy of FTA and also improve system reliability. (author)

  1. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  2. Analyses of robot systems using fault and event trees: case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khodabandehloo, Koorosh

    1996-01-01

    Safety in the use of robotics outside factories or processing plants has become a matter of great international concern. Domestic robots and those intended to assist nurses and surgeons in hospitals are examples of cases where safety and reliability are considered critical. The safe performance of robot systems depends on many factors, including the integrity of the robot's hardware and software, the way it communicates with sensory and other production equipment, the reliable function of the safety features present and the way the robot interacts with its environment. The use of systematic techniques such as Fault and Event Tree analysis to examine the safety and reliability of a given robotic system is presented. Considerable knowledge is needed before the application of such analysis techniques can be translated into safety specifications or indeed 'fail-safe' design features of robotic systems. The skill and understanding required for the formulation of such specifications is demonstrated here based on a number of case studies

  3. A simple component-connection method for building binary decision diagrams encoding a fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Way, Y.-S.; Hsia, D.-Y.

    2000-01-01

    A simple new method for building binary decision diagrams (BDDs) encoding a fault tree (FT) is provided in this study. We first decompose the FT into FT-components. Each of them is a single descendant (SD) gate-sequence. Following the node-connection rule, the BDD-component encoding an SD FT-component can each be found to be an SD node-sequence. By successively connecting the BDD-components one by one, the BDD for the entire FT is thus obtained. During the node-connection and component-connection, reduction rules might need to be applied. An example FT is used throughout the article to explain the procedure step by step. Our method proposed is a hybrid one for FT analysis. Some algorithms or techniques used in the conventional FT analysis or the newer BDD approach may be applied to our case; our ideas mentioned in the article might be referred by the two methods

  4. Analisa Penyebab Keterlambatan Proyek Pembangunan Sidoarjo Town Square Menggunakan Metode Fault Tree Analysis (FTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridhati Amalia

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Setiap proyek konstruksi pada umumnya  mempunyai rencana pelaksanaan dan jadwal  pelaksanaan tertentu, kapan pelaksanaan proyek  tersebut harus dimulai, kapan proyek tersebut harus diselesaikan,  bagaimana proyek tersebut akan dikerjakan, serta  bagaimana penyediaan sumber dayanya. Diharapkan dalam pelaksanaanya tidak terjadi keterlambatan karena keterlambatan yang terjadi akan mengakibatkan meningkatnya biaya proyek. Namun, dalam pelaksanaan proyek pembangunan Sidoarjo Town Square mengalami keterlambatan. Metode yang direncanakan dalam pembahasan untuk mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi terjadinya keterlambatan yaitu Metode Fault Tree  Analysis (FTA dan Method Obtain Cut Set (MOCUS. Didapatkan bahwa item pekerjaan yang mengalami keterlambatan yaitu: pekerjaan struktur GWT STP, pekerjaan finishing fasade dan canopy, dan pekerjaan atap. Dari hasil analisa FTA dari ketiga top event, didapatkan bahwa keterlambatan terjadi dikarenakan  perubahan desain serta perijinan, dimana keduanya akibat faktor penyebab keterlambatan dari pihak owner.

  5. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  6. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  7. Fault tree analysis: A survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2015-01-01

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software

  8. Fault Tree Analysis: A survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2014-01-01

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software

  9. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FOR EXPOSURE TO REFRIGERANTS USED FOR AUTOMOTIVE AIR CONDITIONING IN THE U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servic...

  10. Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilinger, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

  11. Fault Tree Analysis for Safety/Security Verification in Aviation Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Kornecki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Next Generation Air Traffic Management system (NextGen is a blueprint of the future National Airspace System. Supporting NextGen is a nation-wide Aviation Simulation Network (ASN, which allows integration of a variety of real-time simulations to facilitate development and validation of the NextGen software by simulating a wide range of operational scenarios. The ASN system is an environment, including both simulated and human-in-the-loop real-life components (pilots and air traffic controllers. Real Time Distributed Simulation (RTDS developed at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, a suite of applications providing low and medium fidelity en-route simulation capabilities, is one of the simulations contributing to the ASN. To support the interconnectivity with the ASN, we designed and implemented a dedicated gateway acting as an intermediary, providing logic for two-way communication and transfer messages between RTDS and ASN and storage for the exchanged data. It has been necessary to develop and analyze safety/security requirements for the gateway software based on analysis of system assets, hazards, threats and attacks related to ultimate real-life future implementation. Due to the nature of the system, the focus was placed on communication security and the related safety of the impacted aircraft in the simulation scenario. To support development of safety/security requirements, a well-established fault tree analysis technique was used. This fault tree model-based analysis, supported by a commercial tool, was a foundation to propose mitigations assuring the gateway system safety and security. 

  12. Structural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Wadas

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In November 2010, a large sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. To determine the key factors which benefited the development of this collapse structure and therefore the dissolution, we carried out several shear-wave reflection-seismic profiles around the sinkhole. In the seismic sections we see evidence of the Mesozoic tectonic movement in the form of a NW–SE striking, dextral strike-slip fault, known as the Heßleser Fault, which faulted and fractured the subsurface below the town. The strike-slip faulting created a zone of small blocks ( < 100 m in size, around which steep-dipping normal faults, reverse faults and a dense fracture network serve as fluid pathways for the artesian-confined groundwater. The faults also acted as barriers for horizontal groundwater flow perpendicular to the fault planes. Instead groundwater flows along the faults which serve as conduits and forms cavities in the Permian deposits below ca. 60 m depth. Mass movements and the resulting cavities lead to the formation of sinkholes and dissolution-induced depressions. Since the processes are still ongoing, the occurrence of a new sinkhole cannot be ruled out. This case study demonstrates how S-wave seismics can characterize a sinkhole and, together with geological information, can be used to study the processes that result in sinkhole formation, such as a near-surface fault zone located in soluble rocks. The more complex the fault geometry and interaction between faults, the more prone an area is to sinkhole occurrence.

  13. An Overview of Risk Quantification Issues for Digitalized Nuclear Power Plants using a Static Fault Tree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Kim, Man Cheol; Lee, Seung Jun; Lee, Ho Jung; Eom, Heung Seop; Chol, Jong Gyun; Jang, Seung Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-08-15

    Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I and C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system

  14. Structure of the Suasselkä postglacial fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of local events and ambient seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Kukkonen, Ilmo; Dafne/Finland Working Group

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of local seismic events and ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in the northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä postglacial fault (SPGF), which was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised an area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of eight short-period and four broadband three-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September 2011-May 2013. Recordings of the array have being analysed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä gold mine. As a result, we found a number of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single-station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate corresponding surface wave dispersion curves. The S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curve inversion. The results suggest that the area of

  15. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications[Dissertation 17286

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M

    2007-07-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these

  16. α-Cut method based importance measure for criticality analysis in fuzzy probability – Based fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Widodo, Surip; Tjahjono, Hendro

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •FPFTA deals with epistemic uncertainty using fuzzy probability. •Criticality analysis is important for reliability improvement. •An α-cut method based importance measure is proposed for criticality analysis in FPFTA. •The α-cut method based importance measure utilises α-cut multiplication, α-cut subtraction, and area defuzzification technique. •Benchmarking confirm that the proposed method is feasible for criticality analysis in FPFTA. -- Abstract: Fuzzy probability – based fault tree analysis (FPFTA) has been recently developed and proposed to deal with the limitations of conventional fault tree analysis. In FPFTA, reliabilities of basic events, intermediate events and top event are characterized by fuzzy probabilities. Furthermore, the quantification of the FPFTA is based on fuzzy multiplication rule and fuzzy complementation rule to propagate uncertainties from basic event to the top event. Since the objective of the fault tree analysis is to improve the reliability of the system being evaluated, it is necessary to find the weakest path in the system. For this purpose, criticality analysis can be implemented. Various importance measures, which are based on conventional probabilities, have been developed and proposed for criticality analysis in fault tree analysis. However, not one of those importance measures can be applied for criticality analysis in FPFTA, which is based on fuzzy probability. To be fully applied in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment, FPFTA needs to have its corresponding importance measure. The objective of this study is to develop an α-cut method based importance measure to evaluate and rank the importance of basic events for criticality analysis in FPFTA. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed measure, a case study is performed and its results are then benchmarked to the results generated by the four well known importance measures in conventional fault tree analysis. The results

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

    2016-12-01

    The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

  18. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  19. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9 occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF. However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS and Inter