Sample records for seismic fault tree

  1. Fault tree handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.F.; Roberts, N.H.; Vesely, W.E.; Goldberg, F.F.


    This handbook describes a methodology for reliability analysis of complex systems such as those which comprise the engineered safety features of nuclear power generating stations. After an initial overview of the available system analysis approaches, the handbook focuses on a description of the deductive method known as fault tree analysis. The following aspects of fault tree analysis are covered: basic concepts for fault tree analysis; basic elements of a fault tree; fault tree construction; probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra for the fault tree analyst; qualitative and quantitative fault tree evaluation techniques; and computer codes for fault tree evaluation. Also discussed are several example problems illustrating the basic concepts of fault tree construction and evaluation

  2. Fault-Tree Compiler (United States)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Boerschlein, David P.


    Fault-Tree Compiler (FTC) program, is software tool used to calculate probability of top event in fault tree. Gates of five different types allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language easy to understand and use. In addition, program supports hierarchical fault-tree definition feature, which simplifies tree-description process and reduces execution time. Set of programs created forming basis for reliability-analysis workstation: SURE, ASSIST, PAWS/STEM, and FTC fault-tree tool (LAR-14586). Written in PASCAL, ANSI-compliant C language, and FORTRAN 77. Other versions available upon request.

  3. Categorization of PWR accident sequences and guidelines for fault trees: seismic initiators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.


    This study developed a set of dominant accident sequences that could be applied generically to domestic commercial PWRs as a standardized basis for a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This was accomplished by ranking the Zion 1 accident sequences. The pertinent PWR safety systems were compared on a plant-by-plant basis to determine the applicability of the dominant accident sequences of Zion 1 to other PWR plants. The functional event trees were developed to describe the system functions that must work or not work in order for a certain accident sequence to happen, one for pipe breaks and one for transients

  4. Uncovering dynamic fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junges, Sebastian; Guck, Dennis; Katoen, Joost P.; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Fault tree analysis is a widespread industry standard for assessing system reliability. Standard (static) fault trees model the failure behaviour of systems in dependence of their component failures. To overcome their limited expressive power, common dependability patterns, such as spare management,

  5. Fault-Tree Compiler Program (United States)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.


    FTC, Fault-Tree Compiler program, is reliability-analysis software tool used to calculate probability of top event of fault tree. Five different types of gates allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language of FTC easy to understand and use. Program supports hierarchical fault-tree-definition feature simplifying process of description of tree and reduces execution time. Solution technique implemented in FORTRAN, and user interface in Pascal. Written to run on DEC VAX computer operating under VMS operating system.

  6. The fault-tree compiler (United States)

    Martensen, Anna L.; Butler, Ricky W.


    The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N gates. The high level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precise (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) to the five digits in the answer. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Corporation VAX with the VMS operation system.

  7. Integrated fault tree development environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.


    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are utilized in the nuclear industry to perform safety analyses of complex defense-in-depth systems. A major effort in PRA development is fault tree construction. The Integrated Fault Tree Environment (IFTREE) is an interactive, graphics-based tool for fault tree design. IFTREE provides integrated building, editing, and analysis features on a personal workstation. The design philosophy of IFTREE is presented, and the interface is described. IFTREE utilizes a unique rule-based solution algorithm founded in artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The impact of the AI approach on the program design is stressed. IFTREE has been developed to handle the design and maintenance of full-size living PRAs and is currently in use

  8. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nai Fovino, Igor; Masera, Marcelo; De Cian, Alessio


    In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

  9. Computer aided fault tree synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.


    Nuclear as well as non-nuclear organisations are showing during the past few years a growing interest in the field of reliability analysis. This urges for the development of powerful, state of the art methods and computer codes for performing such analysis on complex systems. In this report an interactive, computer aided approach is discussed, based on the well known fault tree technique. The time consuming and difficut task of manually constructing a system model (one or more fault trees) is replaced by an efficient interactive procedure in which the flexibility and the learning process inherent to the manual approach are combined with the accuracy in the modelling and the speed of the fully automatical approach. The method presented is based upon the use of a library containing component models. The possibility of setting up a standard library of models of general use and the link with a data collection system are discussed. The method has been implemented in the CAFTS-SALP software package which is described shortly in the report

  10. Naive Fault Tree : formulation of the approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabalinejad, M


    Naive Fault Tree (NFT) accepts a single value or a range of values for each basic event and returns values for the top event. This accommodates the need of commonly used Fault Trees (FT) for precise data making them prone to data concerns and limiting their area of application. This paper extends

  11. Fault tree analysis for vital area identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varnado, G.B.; Ortiz, N.R.


    This paper discusses the use of fault tree analysis to identify those areas of nuclear fuel cycle facilities which must be protected to prevent acts of sabotage that could lead to sifnificant release of radioactive material. By proper manipulation of the fault trees for a plant, an analyst can identify vital areas in a manner consistent with regulatory definitions. This paper discusses the general procedures used in the analysis of any nuclear facility. In addition, a structured, generic approach to the development of the fault trees for nuclear power reactors is presented along with selected results of the application of the generic approach to several plants

  12. Integrated seismic interpretation of the Carlsberg Fault zone, Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Thybo, Hans; Jørgensen, Mette Iwanouw


    the fault zone. The fault zone is a shadow zone to shots detonated outside the fault zone. Finite-difference wavefield modelling supports the interpretations of the fan recordings. Our fan recording approach facilitates cost-efficient mapping of fault zones in densely urbanized areas where seismic normal......We locate the concealed Carlsberg Fault zone along a 12-km-long trace in the Copenhagen city centre by seismic refraction, reflection and fan profiling. The Carlsberg Fault is located in a NNW-SSE striking fault system in the border zone between the Danish Basin and the Baltic Shield. Recent...... earthquakes indicate that this area is tectonically active. A seismic refraction study across the Carlsberg Fault shows that the fault zone is a low-velocity zone and marks a change in seismic velocity structure. A normal incidence reflection seismic section shows a coincident flower-like structure. We have...

  13. Synthetic seismicity for the San Andreas fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Ward


    Full Text Available Because historical catalogs generally span only a few repetition intervals of major earthquakes, they do not provide much constraint on how regularly earthquakes recur. In order to obtain better recurrence statistics and long-term probability estimates for events M ? 6 on the San Andreas fault, we apply a seismicity model to this fault. The model is based on the concept of fault segmentation and the physics of static dislocations which allow for stress transfer between segments. Constraints are provided by geological and seismological observations of segment lengths, characteristic magnitudes and long-term slip rates. Segment parameters slightly modified from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities allow us to reproduce observed seismicity over four orders of magnitude. The model yields quite irregular earthquake recurrence patterns. Only the largest events (M ? 7.5 are quasi-periodic; small events cluster. Both the average recurrence time and the aperiodicity are also a function of position along the fault. The model results are consistent with paleoseismic data for the San Andreas fault as well as a global set of historical and paleoseismic recurrence data. Thus irregular earthquake recurrence resulting from segment interaction is consistent with a large range of observations.

  14. Cafts: computer aided fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.


    The fault tree technique has become a standard tool for the analysis of safety and reliability of complex system. In spite of the costs, which may be high for a complete and detailed analysis of a complex plant, the fault tree technique is popular and its benefits are fully recognized. Due to this applications of these codes have mostly been restricted to simple academic examples and rarely concern complex, real world systems. In this paper an interactive approach to fault tree construction is presented. The aim is not to replace the analyst, but to offer him an intelligent tool which can assist him in modeling complex systems. Using the CAFTS-method, the analyst interactively constructs a fault tree in two phases: (1) In a first phase he generates an overall failure logic structure of the system; the macrofault tree. In this phase, CAFTS features an expert system approach to assist the analyst. It makes use of a knowledge base containing generic rules on the behavior of subsystems and components; (2) In a second phase the macrofault tree is further refined and transformed in a fully detailed and quantified fault tree. In this phase a library of plant-specific component failure models is used

  15. Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory (United States)

    Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Bolton, David C.; Ren, Christopher X.; Riviere, Jacques; Marone, Chris; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.


    Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

  16. Reset Tree-Based Optical Fault Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howon Kim


    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new reset tree-based scheme to protect cryptographic hardware against optical fault injection attacks. As one of the most powerful invasive attacks on cryptographic hardware, optical fault attacks cause semiconductors to misbehave by injecting high-energy light into a decapped integrated circuit. The contaminated result from the affected chip is then used to reveal secret information, such as a key, from the cryptographic hardware. Since the advent of such attacks, various countermeasures have been proposed. Although most of these countermeasures are strong, there is still the possibility of attack. In this paper, we present a novel optical fault detection scheme that utilizes the buffers on a circuit’s reset signal tree as a fault detection sensor. To evaluate our proposal, we model radiation-induced currents into circuit components and perform a SPICE simulation. The proposed scheme is expected to be used as a supplemental security tool.

  17. 3D Modelling of Seismically Active Parts of Underground Faults via Seismic Data Mining (United States)

    Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Konstantaras, Anthony


    During the last few years rapid steps have been taken towards drilling for oil in the western Mediterranean sea. Since most of the countries in the region benefit mainly from tourism and considering that the Mediterranean is a closed sea only replenishing its water once every ninety years careful measures are being taken to ensure safe drilling. In that concept this research work attempts to derive a three dimensional model of the seismically active parts of the underlying underground faults in areas of petroleum interest. For that purpose seismic spatio-temporal clustering has been applied to seismic data to identify potential distinct seismic regions in the area of interest. Results have been coalesced with two dimensional maps of underground faults from past surveys and seismic epicentres, having followed careful reallocation processing, have been used to provide information regarding the vertical extent of multiple underground faults in the region of interest. The end product is a three dimensional map of the possible underground location and extent of the seismically active parts of underground faults. Indexing terms: underground faults modelling, seismic data mining, 3D visualisation, active seismic source mapping, seismic hazard evaluation, dangerous phenomena modelling Acknowledgment This research work is supported by the ESPA Operational Programme, Education and Life Long Learning, Students Practical Placement Initiative. References [1] Alves, T.M., Kokinou, E. and Zodiatis, G.: 'A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins', Marine Pollution Bulletin, In Press, 2014 [2] Ciappa, A., Costabile, S.: 'Oil spill hazard assessment using a reverse trajectory method for the Egadi marine protected area (Central Mediterranean Sea)', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 84 (1-2), pp. 44-55, 2014 [3] Ganas, A., Karastathis, V., Moshou, A., Valkaniotis, S., Mouzakiotis

  18. Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions. (United States)

    El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P


    Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong


    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.

  20. Computer-aided Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willie, R.R.


    A computer-oriented methodology for deriving minimal cut and path set families associated with arbitrary fault trees is discussed first. Then the use of the Fault Tree Analysis Program (FTAP), an extensive FORTRAN computer package that implements the methodology is described. An input fault tree to FTAP may specify the system state as any logical function of subsystem or component state variables or complements of these variables. When fault tree logical relations involve complements of state variables, the analyst may instruct FTAP to produce a family of prime implicants, a generalization of the minimal cut set concept. FTAP can also identify certain subsystems associated with the tree as system modules and provide a collection of minimal cut set families that essentially expresses the state of the system as a function of these module state variables. Another FTAP feature allows a subfamily to be obtained when the family of minimal cut sets or prime implicants is too large to be found in its entirety; this subfamily consists only of sets that are interesting to the analyst in a special sense

  1. Seismic fault analysis of Chicoutimi region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woussen, G.; Ngandee, S.


    On November 25, 1988, an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter Scale occurred at a depth of 29 km in Precambrian bedrock in the Saguenay Region (Quebec). Given that the seismic event was located near a major zone of normal faults, it is important to determine if the earthquake could be associated with this large structure or with faults associated with this structure. This is discussed through a compilation and interpretation of structural discontinuities on key outcrops in the vicinity of the epicenter. The report is broken in four parts. The first part gives a brief overview of the geology in order to provide a geologic context for the structural measurements. The second comprises an analysis of fractures in each of the three lithotectonic units defined in the first part. The third part discusses the data and the fourth provides a conclusion. 30 refs., 53 figs

  2. High Resolution Seismic Reflection Survey for Coal Mine: fault detection (United States)

    Khukhuudei, M.; Khukhuudei, U.


    High Resolution Seismic Reflection (HRSR) methods will become a more important tool to help unravel structures hosting mineral deposits at great depth for mine planning and exploration. Modern coal mining requires certainly about geological faults and structural features. This paper focuses on 2D Seismic section mapping results from an "Zeegt" lignite coal mine in the "Mongol Altai" coal basin, which required the establishment of major structure for faults and basement. HRSR method was able to detect subsurface faults associated with the major fault system. We have used numerical modeling in an ideal, noise free environment with homogenous layering to detect of faults. In a coal mining setting where the seismic velocity of the high ranges from 3000m/s to 3600m/s and the dominant seismic frequency is 100Hz, available to locate faults with a throw of 4-5m. Faults with displacements as seam thickness detected down to several hundred meter beneath the surface.

  3. Fault trees for diagnosis of system fault conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.; Yadigaroglu, G.


    Methods for generating repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and probabilistic importance are presented. A one-step-ahead optimization procedure, based on the concept of component criticality, minimizing the expected time to diagnose system failure is outlined. Options available to the operator of a nuclear power plant when system fault conditions occur are addressed. A low-pressure emergency core cooling injection system, a standby safeguard system of a pressurized water reactor power plant, is chosen as an example illustrating the methods presented

  4. A prediction of mars seismicity from surface faulting (United States)

    Golombek, M.P.; Banerdt, W.B.; Tanaka, K.L.; Tralli, D.M.


    The shallow seismicity of Mars has been estimated by measurement of the total slip on faults visible on the surface of the planet throughout geologic time. Seismicity was calibrated with estimates based on surface structures on the moon and measured lunar seismicity that includes the entire seismogenic lithosphere. Results indicate that Mars is seismically active today, with a sufficient number of detectable marsquakes to allow seismic investigations of its interior.

  5. An Algorithm for Fault-Tree Construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, J. R.


    An algorithm for performing certain parts of the fault tree construction process is described. Its input is a flow sheet of the plant, a piping and instrumentation diagram, or a wiring diagram of the circuits, to be analysed, together with a standard library of component functional and failure mo...

  6. Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette


    Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

  7. Fault tree analysis: concepts and techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.


    Concepts and techniques of fault tree analysis have been developed over the past decade and now predictions from this type analysis are important considerations in the design of many systems such as aircraft, ships and their electronic systems, missiles, and nuclear reactor systems. Routine, hardware-oriented fault tree construction can be automated; however, considerable effort is needed in this area to get the methodology into production status. When this status is achieved, the entire analysis of hardware systems will be automated except for the system definition step. Automated analysis is not undesirable; to the contrary, when verified on adequately complex systems, automated analysis could well become a routine analysis. It could also provide an excellent start for a more in-depth fault tree analysis that includes environmental effects, common mode failure, and human errors. The automated analysis is extremely fast and frees the analyst from the routine hardware-oriented fault tree construction, as well as eliminates logic errors and errors of oversight in this part of the analysis. Automated analysis then affords the analyst a powerful tool to allow his prime efforts to be devoted to unearthing more subtle aspects of the modes of failure of the system

  8. Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Tonetta, Stefano; Schoitsch, Erwin; Bitsch, Friedemann


    Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

  9. Workflow Fault Tree Generation Through Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin


    We present a framework for the automated generation of fault trees from models of realworld process workflows, expressed in a formalised subset of the popular Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language. To capture uncertainty and unreliability in workflows, we extend this formalism...... to calculate the probabilities of reaching each non-error system state. Each generated error state is assigned a variable indicating its individual probability of occurrence. Our method can determine the probability of combined faults occurring, while accounting for the basic probabilistic structure...... of the system being modelled. From these calculations, a comprehensive fault tree is generated. Further, we show that annotating the model with rewards (data) allows the expected mean values of reward structures to be calculated at points of failure....

  10. Experimental challenges to reproduce seismic fault motion (United States)

    Shimamoto, T.


    This presentation briefly reviews scientific and technical development in the studies of intermediate to high-velocity frictional properties of faults and summarizes remaining technical challenges to reproduce nucleation to growth processes of large earthquakes in laboratory. Nearly 10 high-velocity or low to high-velocity friction apparatuses have been built in the last several years in the world and it has become possible now to produce sub-plate velocity to seismic slip rate in a single machine. Despite spreading of high-velocity friction studies, reproducing seismic fault motion at high P and T conditions to cover the entire seismogenic zone is still a big challenge. Previous studies focused on (1) frictional melting, (2) thermal pressurization, and (3) high-velocity gouge behavior without frictional melting. Frictional melting process was solved as a Stefan problem with very good agreement with experimental results. Thermal pressurization has been solved theoretically based on measured transport properties and has been included successfully in the modeling of earthquake generation. High-velocity gouge experiments in the last several years have revealed that a wide variety of gouges exhibit dramatic weakening at high velocities (e.g., Di Toro et al., 2011, Nature). Most gouge experiments were done under dry conditions partly to separate gouge friction from the involvement of thermal pressurization. However, recent studies demonstrated that dehydration or degassing due to mineral decomposition can occur during seismic fault motion. Those results not only provided a new view of looking at natural fault zones in search of geological evidence of seismic fault motion, but also indicated that thermal pressurization and gouge weakening can occur simultaneously even in initially dry gouge. Thus experiments with controlled pore pressure are needed. I have struggled to make a pressure vessel for wet high-velocity experiments in the last several years. A technical

  11. Erosion influences the seismicity of active thrust faults. (United States)

    Steer, Philippe; Simoes, Martine; Cattin, Rodolphe; Shyu, J Bruce H


    Assessing seismic hazards remains one of the most challenging scientific issues in Earth sciences. Deep tectonic processes are classically considered as the only persistent mechanism driving the stress loading of active faults over a seismic cycle. Here we show via a mechanical model that erosion also significantly influences the stress loading of thrust faults at the timescale of a seismic cycle. Indeed, erosion rates of about ~0.1-20 mm yr(-1), as documented in Taiwan and in other active compressional orogens, can raise the Coulomb stress by ~0.1-10 bar on the nearby thrust faults over the inter-seismic phase. Mass transfers induced by surface processes in general, during continuous or short-lived and intense events, represent a prominent mechanism for inter-seismic stress loading of faults near the surface. Such stresses are probably sufficient to trigger shallow seismicity or promote the rupture of deep continental earthquakes up to the surface.

  12. Seismicity and Tectonics of the West Kaibab Fault Zone, AZ (United States)

    Wilgus, J. T.; Brumbaugh, D. S.


    The West Kaibab Fault Zone (WKFZ) is the westernmost bounding structure of the Kaibab Plateau of northern Arizona. The WKFZ is a branching complex of high angle, normal faults downthrown to the west. There are three main faults within the WKFZ, the Big Springs fault with a maximum of 165 m offset, the Muav fault with 350 m of displacement, and the North Road fault having a maximum throw of approximately 90 m. Mapping of geologically recent surface deposits at or crossing the fault contacts indicates that the faults are likely Quaternary with the most recent offsets occurring one of the most seismically active areas in Arizona and lies within the Northern Arizona Seismic Belt (NASB), which stretches across northern Arizona trending NW-SE. The data set for this study includes 156 well documented events with the largest being a M5.75 in 1959 and including a swarm of seven earthquakes in 2012. The seismic data set (1934-2014) reveals that seismic activity clusters in two regions within the study area, the Fredonia cluster located in the NW corner of the study area and the Kaibab cluster located in the south central portion of the study area. The fault plane solutions to date indicate NE-SW to EW extension is occurring in the study area. Source relationships between earthquakes and faults within the WKFZ have not previously been studied in detail. The goal of this study is to use the seismic data set, the available data on faults, and the regional physiography to search for source relationships for the seismicity. Analysis includes source parameters of the earthquake data (location, depth, and fault plane solutions), and comparison of this output to the known faults and areal physiographic framework to indicate any active faults of the WKFZ, or suggested active unmapped faults. This research contributes to a better understanding of the present nature of the WKFZ and the NASB as well.

  13. A Revision of Mars Seismicity from Surface Faulting (United States)

    Golombek, M. P.


    The seismic moment release of Mars is estimated from slip on faults visible on the surface through time and calibrated by the number of marsquakes expected throughout the lithosphere. Results indicate Mars is presently seismically active and a promising prospect for future seismic investigations.

  14. New method for abbreviating the fault tree graphical representation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.E.; Fussell, J.B.; Crump, R.J.


    Fault tree analysis is being widely used for reliability and safety analysis of systems encountered in the nuclear industry and elsewhere. A disadvantage of the fault tree method is the voluminous fault tree graphical representation that conventionally results from analysis of a complex system. Previous methods for shortening the fault tree graphical representation include (1) transfers within the fault tree, and (2) the use of the SAMPLE (K out of N logic) gate, the MATRIX gate, and the SUMMATION gate. The purpose of this presentation is to introduce TABULATION gates as a method to abbreviate the fault tree graphical representation. These new gates reduce the cost of analysis and generally increase the system behavior visibility that is inherent in the fault tree technique

  15. High-resolution gravity and seismic-refraction surveys of the Smoke Tree Wash area, Joshua Tree National Park, California (United States)

    Langenheim, Victoria E.; Rymer, Michael J.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.; Watt, Janet T.; Powell, Robert E.; Matti, Jonathan C.


    We describe high-resolution gravity and seismic refraction surveys acquired to determine the thickness of valley-fill deposits and to delineate geologic structures that might influence groundwater flow beneath the Smoke Tree Wash area in Joshua Tree National Park. These surveys identified a sedimentary basin that is fault-controlled. A profile across the Smoke Tree Wash fault zone reveals low gravity values and seismic velocities that coincide with a mapped strand of the Smoke Tree Wash fault. Modeling of the gravity data reveals a basin about 2–2.5 km long and 1 km wide that is roughly centered on this mapped strand, and bounded by inferred faults. According to the gravity model the deepest part of the basin is about 270 m, but this area coincides with low velocities that are not characteristic of typical basement complex rocks. Most likely, the density contrast assumed in the inversion is too high or the uncharacteristically low velocities represent highly fractured or weathered basement rocks, or both. A longer seismic profile extending onto basement outcrops would help differentiate which scenario is more accurate. The seismic velocities also determine the depth to water table along the profile to be about 40–60 m, consistent with water levels measured in water wells near the northern end of the profile.

  16. A seismic fault recognition method based on ant colony optimization (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Xiao, Chuangbai; Li, Xueliang; Wang, Zhenli; Huo, Shoudong


    Fault recognition is an important section in seismic interpretation and there are many methods for this technology, but no one can recognize fault exactly enough. For this problem, we proposed a new fault recognition method based on ant colony optimization which can locate fault precisely and extract fault from the seismic section. Firstly, seismic horizons are extracted by the connected component labeling algorithm; secondly, the fault location are decided according to the horizontal endpoints of each horizon; thirdly, the whole seismic section is divided into several rectangular blocks and the top and bottom endpoints of each rectangular block are considered as the nest and food respectively for the ant colony optimization algorithm. Besides that, the positive section is taken as an actual three dimensional terrain by using the seismic amplitude as a height. After that, the optimal route from nest to food calculated by the ant colony in each block is judged as a fault. Finally, extensive comparative tests were performed on the real seismic data. Availability and advancement of the proposed method were validated by the experimental results.

  17. TREDRA, Minimal Cut Sets Fault Tree Plot Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.


    1 - Description of problem or function: TREDRA is a computer program for drafting report-quality fault trees. The input to TREDRA is similar to input for standard computer programs that find minimal cut sets from fault trees. Output includes fault tree plots containing all standard fault tree logic and event symbols, gate and event labels, and an output description for each event in the fault tree. TREDRA contains the following features: a variety of program options that allow flexibility in the program output; capability for automatic pagination of the output fault tree, when necessary; input groups which allow labeling of gates, events, and their output descriptions; a symbol library which includes standard fault tree symbols plus several less frequently used symbols; user control of character size and overall plot size; and extensive input error checking and diagnostic oriented output. 2 - Method of solution: Fault trees are generated by user-supplied control parameters and a coded description of the fault tree structure consisting of the name of each gate, the gate type, the number of inputs to the gate, and the names of these inputs. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: TREDRA can produce fault trees with a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 56 levels. The width of each level may range from 3 to 37. A total of 50 transfers is allowed during pagination

  18. Effects of fault heterogeneity on seismic energy and spectrum (United States)

    Dragoni, Michele; Santini, Stefano


    We study the effects of friction heterogeneity on the dynamics of a seismogenic fault. To this aim, we consider a fault model containing two asperities with different static frictions and a rate-dependent dynamic friction. We consider the seismic events produced by the consecutive failure of the two asperities and study their properties as functions of the ratio between static frictions. In particular, we calculate the moment rate, the stress evolution during fault slip, the average stress drop, the partitioning of energy release, the seismic energy, the far-field waveforms and the spectrum of seismic waves. These quantities depend to various extent on the friction distribution on the fault. In particular, the stress distribution on the fault is always strongly heterogeneous at the beginning of the seismic event. Seismic energy and frictional heat decrease with increasing friction heterogeneity, while seismic efficiency is constant. We obtain an equation relating seismic efficiency to the parameters of the friction law, showing that the efficiency is maximum for smaller values of dynamic friction. The seismic spectrum depends on the friction distribution as to the positions and the values of the minima. However, under the model assumption that the slip durations are the same for both asperities, the corner frequency is independent of the friction distribution, but it depends on the friction law and on the coupling between asperities. The model provides a relation between the total radiated energy and the seismic moment that is consistent with the empirical relation between the two quantities. The fault model with one asperity is also considered as a particular case. The model is applied to the 1965 Rat Islands (Alaska) earthquake and shows the role of fault heterogeneity in controlling the spatial distribution of stress drop as well as the time dependence and the final amount of radiated energy.

  19. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.


    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  20. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing. (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S


    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  1. Imaging fault zones using 3D seismic image processing techniques (United States)

    Iacopini, David; Butler, Rob; Purves, Steve


    Significant advances in structural analysis of deep water structure, salt tectonic and extensional rift basin come from the descriptions of fault system geometries imaged in 3D seismic data. However, even where seismic data are excellent, in most cases the trajectory of thrust faults is highly conjectural and still significant uncertainty exists as to the patterns of deformation that develop between the main faults segments, and even of the fault architectures themselves. Moreover structural interpretations that conventionally define faults by breaks and apparent offsets of seismic reflectors are commonly conditioned by a narrow range of theoretical models of fault behavior. For example, almost all interpretations of thrust geometries on seismic data rely on theoretical "end-member" behaviors where concepts as strain localization or multilayer mechanics are simply avoided. Yet analogue outcrop studies confirm that such descriptions are commonly unsatisfactory and incomplete. In order to fill these gaps and improve the 3D visualization of deformation in the subsurface, seismic attribute methods are developed here in conjunction with conventional mapping of reflector amplitudes (Marfurt & Chopra, 2007)). These signal processing techniques recently developed and applied especially by the oil industry use variations in the amplitude and phase of the seismic wavelet. These seismic attributes improve the signal interpretation and are calculated and applied to the entire 3D seismic dataset. In this contribution we will show 3D seismic examples of fault structures from gravity-driven deep-water thrust structures and extensional basin systems to indicate how 3D seismic image processing methods can not only build better the geometrical interpretations of the faults but also begin to map both strain and damage through amplitude/phase properties of the seismic signal. This is done by quantifying and delineating the short-range anomalies on the intensity of reflector amplitudes

  2. Computer aided fault tree construction for electrical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.


    A technique is presented for automated construction of the Boolean failure logic diagram, called the fault tree, for electrical systems. The method is a technique for synthesizing a fault tree from system-independent component characteristics. Terminology is defined and heuristic examples are given for all phases of the model. The computer constructed fault trees are in conventional format, use conventional symbols, and are deductively constructed from the main failure of interest to the individual component failures. The synthesis technique is generally applicable to automated fault tree construction for other types of systems

  3. Seismic Velocity and Elastic Properties of Plate Boundary Faults (United States)

    Jeppson, Tamara N.

    The elastic properties of fault zone rock at depth play a key role in rupture nucleation, propagation, and the magnitude of fault slip. Materials that lie within major plate boundary fault zones often have very different material properties than standard crustal rock values. In order to understand the mechanics of faulting at plate boundaries, we need to both measure these properties and understand how they govern the behavior of different types of faults. Mature fault zones tend to be identified in large-scale geophysical field studies as zones with low seismic velocity and/or electrical resistivity. These anomalous properties are related to two important mechanisms: (1) mechanical or diagenetic alteration of the rock materials and/or (2) pore fluid pressure and stress effects. However, in remotely-sensed and large-length-scale data it is difficult to determine which of these mechanisms are affecting the measured properties. The objective of this dissertation research is to characterize the seismic velocity and elastic properties of fault zone rocks at a range of scales, with a focus on understanding why the fault zone properties are different from those of the surrounding rock and the potential effects on earthquake rupture and fault slip. To do this I performed ultrasonic velocity experiments under elevated pressure conditions on drill core and outcrops samples from three plate boundary fault zones: the San Andreas Fault, California, USA; the Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand; and the Japan Trench megathrust, Japan. Additionally, I compared laboratory measurements to sonic log and large-scale seismic data to examine the scale-dependence of the measured properties. The results of this study provide the most comprehensive characterization of the seismic velocities and elastic properties of fault zone rocks currently available. My work shows that fault zone rocks at mature plate boundary faults tend to be significantly more compliant than surrounding crustal

  4. Fault tree analysis with multistate components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.


    A general analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (more than states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of Boolean algebra is required. This is called 'Boolean algebra with restrictions on varibales' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional Boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. Important features of the method are the identification of the complete base and of the smallest irredundant base of a Boolean function which does not necessarily need to be coherent. It is shown that the identification of the complete base of a Boolean function requires the application of some algorithms which are not used in today's computer programmes for fault tree analysis. The problem of statistical dependence among primary components is discussed. The paper includes a small demonstrative example to illustrate the method. The example includes also statistical dependent components. (orig.) [de

  5. Fault tree analysis of KNICS RPS software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Yong; Kwon, Kee Choon; Koh, Kwang Yong; Jee, Eun Kyoung; Seong, Poong Hyun; Lee, Dae Hyung


    This paper describes the application of a software Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as one of the analysis techniques for a Software Safety Analysis (SSA) at the design phase and its analysis results for the safety-critical software of a digital reactor protection system, which is called the KNICS RPS, being developed in the KNICS (Korea Nuclear Instrumentation and Control Systems) project. The software modules in the design description were represented by Function Blocks (FBs), and the software FTA was performed based on the well-defined fault tree templates for the FBs. The SSA, which is part of the verification and validation (V and V) activities, was activated at each phase of the software lifecycle for the KNICS RPS. At the design phase, the software HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) and the software FTA were employed in the SSA in such a way that the software HAZOP was performed first and then the software FTA was applied. The software FTA was applied to some critical modules selected from the software HAZOP analysis

  6. Methods of fault tree analysis and their limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.G.


    Some recent methodological developments of fault tree analysis are discussed and limits of fault tree analysis and a criterion for admissibility of structure functions are given. It is shown that there are interesting relations to switching theory and to stochastic processes. (orig./HP) [de

  7. System assessment using modular logic fault tree methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troncoso Fleitas, M.


    In the process of a Probabilistic Safety analysis (PSA) study a large number of fault trees are generated by different specialist. Modular Logic Fault Tree Methodology pave the way the way to systematize the procedures and to unify the criteria in the process of systems modulation. An example of of the application of this methodology is shown

  8. Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis | Tyagi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Research in conventional fault tree analysis (FTA) is based mainly on failure probability of basic events, which uses classical probability distributions for the failure probability of basic events. In the present paper the probabilistic consideration of basic events is replaced by possibilities, thereby leading to fuzzy fault tree ...

  9. UML Statechart Fault Tree Generation By Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Herbert-Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee

    Creating fault tolerant and efficient process work-flows poses a significant challenge. Individual faults, defined as an abnormal conditions or defects in a component, equipment, or sub-process, must be handled so that the system may continue to operate, and are typically addressed by implementing...... engineers imagine what undesirable events can occur under which conditions. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) attempts to analyse the failure of systems by composing logic diagrams of separate individual faults to determine the probabil-ity of larger compound faults occurring. FTA is a commonly used method......-pleteness). To avoid these deficiencies, our approach derives the fault tree directly from the formal system model, under the assumption that any state can fail. We present a framework for the automated gener-ation of fault trees from models of real-world pro-cess workflows, expressed in a formalised subset...

  10. Towards a sound semantics for dynamic fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauzy, Antoine; Blériot-Fabre, Chaire


    In this article, we study the semantics of dynamic fault trees and related formalisms. We suggest that there are actually three mechanisms at work in dynamic fault trees: first, changes of states due to occurrences of events, second bottom-up propagations of values as in static fault trees, and third top-down propagations of demands of activations of components. We propose a direct translation of dynamic fault trees into guarded transitions systems, the underlying mathematical model of the AltaRica 3.0 modeling language. This encoding provides a good basis for our study. We discuss also assessment algorithms at hand in light of this translation. - Highlights: • We provide a sound semantics for Dynamic Fault Trees and Boolean driven Markov processes. • We define this semantics by means of a library of reusable guarded transition systems. • We discuss algorithmic issues

  11. Qademah Fault Seismic Data Set - Northern Part

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M.


    Objective: Is the Qademah fault that was detected in 2010 the main fault? We collected a long 2D profile, 526 m, where the fault that was detected in 2010 is at around 300 m. Layout: We collected 264 CSGs, each has 264 receivers. The shot and receiver interval is 2 m. We also collected an extra 48 CSGs with offset = 528 to 622 m with shot interval = 2 m. The receivers are the same as the main survey.

  12. Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.


    The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

  13. [The Application of the Fault Tree Analysis Method in Medical Equipment Maintenance]. (United States)

    Liu, Hongbin


    In this paper, the traditional fault tree analysis method is presented, detailed instructions for its application characteristics in medical instrument maintenance is made. It is made significant changes when the traditional fault tree analysis method is introduced into the medical instrument maintenance: gave up the logic symbolic, logic analysis and calculation, gave up its complicated programs, and only keep its image and practical fault tree diagram, and the fault tree diagram there are also differences: the fault tree is no longer a logical tree but the thinking tree in troubleshooting, the definition of the fault tree's nodes is different, the composition of the fault tree's branches is also different.

  14. Seismic Evidence for Splays of the Eureka Peak Fault beneath Yucca Valley, California (United States)

    Goldman, M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Sickler, R. R.; Criley, C.; O'leary, D. R.; Christensen, A.


    In April 2015, we acquired high-resolution P- and S-wave seismic data along a 3.1-km-long, E-W-trending profile in Yucca Valley, California. Our seismic survey was designed to locate possible sub-parallel faults of the Eureka Peak Fault, which trends NW-SE near the western end of our profile. The Eureka Peak Fault is a potential hazard to the Yucca Valley region, as it appears to have experienced surface ruptures associated with both the 23 April 1992 M 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake and the 28 June 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake. We simultaneously acquired P- and S-wave data using explosive sources spaced every 100 m, along with higher resolution P-wave data from seisgun sources spaced every 5 m. Each shot was co-located with and recorded by 634 P-wave geophones (40-Hz) spaced 5 m apart and 250 S-wave geophones (4.5-Hz) spaced 10 meters apart. We developed P-wave tomographic velocity models and reflection images that show at least one significant fault about 2.3 km NE of the Eureka Peak Fault. This fault may potentially pose a hazard and affect groundwater flow in the area.

  15. AFTC Code for Automatic Fault Tree Construction: Users Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopika Vinod; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.


    Fault Trees perform a predominant role in reliability and safety analysis of system. Manual construction of fault tree is a very time consuming task and moreover, it won't give a formalized result, since it relies highly on analysts experience and heuristics. This necessitates a computerised fault tree construction, which is still attracting interest of reliability analysts. AFTC software is a user friendly software model for constructing fault trees based on decision tables. Software is equipped with libraries of decision tables for components commonly used in various Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) systems. User is expected to make a nodal diagram of the system, for which fault tree is to be constructed, from the flow sheets available. The text nodal diagram goes as the sole input defining the system flow chart. AFTC software is a rule based expert system which draws the fault tree from the system flow chart and component decision tables. AFTC software gives fault tree in both text and graphic format. Help is provided as how to enter system flow chart and component decision tables. The software is developed in 'C' language. Software is verified with simplified version of the fire water system of an Indian PHWR. Code conversion will be undertaken to create a window based version. (author)

  16. Assessment of faulting and seismic hazards at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, J.L.; Frazier, G.A.; Grant, T.A.


    Yucca Mountain is being evaluated for the nation's first high-level nuclear-waste repository. Local faults appear to be capable of moderate earthquakes at recurrence intervals of tens of thousands of years. The major issues identified for the preclosure phase (<100 yrs) are the location and seismic design of surface facilities for handling incoming waste. It is planned to address surface fault rupture by locating facilities where no discernible recent (<100,000 yrs) faulting has occurred and to base the ground motion design on hypothetical earthquakes, postulated on nearby faults, that represent 10,000 yrs of average cumulative displacement. The major tectonic issues identified for the postclosure phase (10,000 yrs) are volcanism (not addressed here) and potential changes to the hydrologic system resulting from a local faulting event which could trigger potential thermal, mechanical, and chemical interactions with the ground water. Extensive studies are planned for resolving these issues. 33 refs., 3 figs

  17. Hysteresis behavior of seismic isolators in earthquakes near a fault ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seismic performance and appropriate design of structures located near the faults has always been a major concern of design engineers. Because during an earthquake; the effects of plasticity will make differences in characteristics of near field records. These pulsed movements at the beginning of records will increase the ...

  18. Multi-Fault Rupture Scenarios in the Brawley Seismic Zone (United States)

    Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Rockwell, T. K.; Meltzner, A. J.; Barall, M.


    Dynamic rupture complexity is strongly affected by both the geometric configuration of a network of faults and pre-stress conditions. Between those two, the geometric configuration is more likely to be anticipated prior to an event. An important factor in the unpredictability of the final rupture pattern of a group of faults is the time-dependent interaction between them. Dynamic rupture models provide a means to investigate this otherwise inscrutable processes. The Brawley Seismic Zone in Southern California is an area in which this approach might be important for inferring potential earthquake sizes and rupture patterns. Dynamic modeling can illuminate how the main faults in this area, the Southern San Andreas (SSAF) and Imperial faults, might interact with the intersecting cross faults, and how the cross faults may modulate rupture on the main faults. We perform 3D finite element modeling of potential earthquakes in this zone assuming an extended array of faults (Figure). Our results include a wide range of ruptures and fault behaviors depending on assumptions about nucleation location, geometric setup, pre-stress conditions, and locking depth. For example, in the majority of our models the cross faults do not strongly participate in the rupture process, giving the impression that they are not typically an aid or an obstacle to the rupture propagation. However, in some cases, particularly when rupture proceeds slowly on the main faults, the cross faults indeed can participate with significant slip, and can even cause rupture termination on one of the main faults. Furthermore, in a complex network of faults we should not preclude the possibility of a large event nucleating on a smaller fault (e.g. a cross fault) and eventually promoting rupture on the main structure. Recent examples include the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) and Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes, where rupture started on a smaller adjacent segment and later cascaded into a larger

  19. A fault and seismicity based composite simulation in northern California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Yıkılmaz


    Full Text Available We generate synthetic catalogs of seismicity in northern California using a composite simulation. The basis of the simulation is the fault based "Virtual California" (VC earthquake simulator. Back-slip velocities and mean recurrence intervals are specified on model strike-slip faults. A catalog of characteristic earthquakes is generated for a period of 100 000 yr. These earthquakes are predominantly in the range M = 6 to M = 8, but do not follow Gutenberg-Richter (GR scaling at lower magnitudes. In order to model seismicity on unmapped faults we introduce background seismicity which occurs randomly in time with GR scaling and is spatially associated with the VC model faults. These earthquakes fill in the GR scaling down to M = 4 (the smallest earthquakes modeled. The rate of background seismicity is constrained by the observed rate of occurrence of M > 4 earthquakes in northern California. These earthquakes are then used to drive the BASS (branching aftershock sequence model of aftershock occurrence. The BASS model is the self-similar limit of the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequence model. Families of aftershocks are generated following each Virtual California and background main shock. In the simulations the rate of occurrence of aftershocks is essentially equal to the rate of occurrence of main shocks in the magnitude range 4 < M < 7. We generate frequency-magnitude and recurrence interval statistics both regionally and fault specific. We compare our modeled rates of seismicity and spatial variability with observations.

  20. A compendium of computer codes in fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.


    In the past ten years principles and methods for a unified system reliability and safety analysis have been developed. Fault tree techniques serve as a central feature of unified system analysis, and there exists a specific discipline within system reliability concerned with the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation. Ever since the fault tree concept was established, computer codes have been developed for qualitative and quantitative analyses. In particular the presentation of the kinetic tree theory and the PREP-KITT code package has influenced the present use of fault trees and the development of new computer codes. This report is a compilation of some of the better known fault tree codes in use in system reliability. Numerous codes are available and new codes are continuously being developed. The report is designed to address the specific characteristics of each code listed. A review of the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation is presented in an introductory chapter, the purpose of which is to give a framework for the validity of the different codes. (Auth.)

  1. Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses (United States)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.


    Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

  2. Algorithms and programs for consequence diagram and fault tree construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.; Taylor, J.R.


    A presentation of algorithms and programs for consequence diagram and sequential fault tree construction that are intended for reliability and disturbance analysis of large systems. The system to be analyzed must be given as a block diagram formed by mini fault trees of individual system components. The programs were written in LISP programming language and run on a PDP8 computer with 8k words of storage. A description is given of the methods used and of the program construction and working. (author)

  3. Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.E.


    An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible

  4. Methodology for the Seismic risk assessment in segments of fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present study establishes the most adequate methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Iberian Peninsula, in particular for low seismicity areas, through a review of methods used in other countries and its application to a certain area in Spain. In this area the geological context and recent activity of a specific tectonic structure is studied in detail, in order to asses its slip rate, and therefore, its capability of generating earthquakes. In the first stage of this project a review of Seismic Hazard Assessment methods used outside Spain was carried out, as well as, a study of several spanish cases. This stage also comprises a review of the spanish seismic record and a study of the general peninsular neotectonic context, this latter to select a particular fault for the next stage. (Author) 117 refs

  5. Microcomputer applications of, and modifications to, the modular fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, T.L.; Graves, N.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Whitehead, D.W.


    The LaSalle Probabilistic Risk Assessment was the first major application of the modular logic fault trees after the IREP program. In the process of performing the analysis, many errors were discovered in the fault tree modules that led to difficulties in combining the modules to form the final system fault trees. These errors are corrected in the revised modules listed in this report. In addition, the application of the modules in terms of editing them and forming them into the system fault trees was inefficient. Originally, the editing had to be done line by line and no error checking was performed by the computer. This led to many typos and other logic errors in the construction of the modular fault tree files. Two programs were written to help alleviate this problem: (1) MODEDIT - This program allows an operator to retrieve a file for editing, edit the file for the plant specific application, perform some general error checking while the file is being modified, and store the file for later use, and (2) INDEX - This program checks that the modules that are supposed to form one fault tree all link up appropriately before the files are,loaded onto the mainframe computer. Lastly, the modules were not designed for relay type logic common in BWR designs but for solid state type logic. Some additional modules were defined for modeling relay logic, and an explanation and example of their use are included in this report

  6. Fault detection by surface seismic scanning tunneling macroscope: Field test

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M.


    The seismic scanning tunneling macroscope (SSTM) is proposed for detecting the presence of near-surface impedance anomalies and faults. Results with synthetic data are consistent with theory in that scatterers closer to the surface provide brighter SSTM profiles than those that are deeper. The SSTM profiles show superresolution detection if the scatterers are in the near-field region of the recording line. The field data tests near Gulf of Aqaba, Haql, KSA clearly show the presence of the observable fault scarp, and identify the subsurface presence of the hidden faults indicated in the tomograms. Superresolution detection of the fault is achieved, even when the 35 Hz data are lowpass filtered to the 5-10 Hz band.

  7. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults. (United States)

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia


    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Bayesian estimation of faults geometry based on seismic catalog data (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ben-Zion, Y.


    The geometrical properties of fault structures are important to many issues, including seismic hazard. The resolution of fault geometry at depth with waveform data is very difficult, and in many situations the only source of information are seismic catalogs, i.e. the origin times, magnitudes and hypocenter locations (with location errors) of earthquakes. In this work we discuss a method based on Bayesian inversion of catalog data to calculate the likelihood that the hypocenters in a given area reside on various narrow tabular zones. We scan the space of all possible zones by using a Hesse (normal form) representation of the possible fault zones. This allows us to compute an a posteriori probability density in the space of fault zones given the catalog data. An additional refinement of the method consists in using "an exclusion principle" where an earthquake prevents new events to happen for some time in a disk region with size related to the magnitude of the earlie r earthquake. The time dependency of this exclusion region models the healing and post-seismic stress increase of a slipping zone. We discuss the theoretical properties and resolution power of theses inversion procedures with the help of synthetic data.

  9. Off-fault seismicity suggests creep below 10 km on the northern San Jacinto Fault (United States)

    Cooke, M. L.; Beyer, J. L.


    Within the San Bernardino basin, CA, south of the juncture of the San Jacinto (SJF) and San Andreas faults (SAF), focal mechanisms show normal slip events that are inconsistent with the interseismic strike-slip loading of the region. High-quality (nodal plane uncertainty faults [Anderson et al., 2004]. However, the loading of these normal slip events remains enigmatic because the region is expected to have dextral loading between large earthquake events. These enigmatic normal slip events may be loaded by deep (> 10 km depth) spatially creep along the northern SJF. Steady state models show that over many earthquake cycles, the dextral slip rate on the northern SJF increases southward, placing the San Bernardino basin in extension. In the absence of recent large seismic events that could produce off-fault normal focal mechanisms in the San Bernardino basin, non-uniform deep aseismic slip on the SJF could account for this seismicity. We develop interseismic models that incorporate spatially non-uniform creep below 10 km on the SJF based on steady-state slip distribution. These model results match the pattern of deep normal slip events within the San Bernardino basin. Such deep creep on the SJF may not be detectable from the geodetic signal due to the close proximity of the SAF, whose lack of seismicity suggests that it is locked to 20 km. Interseismic models with 15 km locking depth on both faults are indistinguishable from models with 10 km locking depth on the SJF and 20 km locking depth on the SAF. This analysis suggests that the microseismicity in our multi-decadal catalog may record both the interseismic dextral loading of the region as well as off-fault deformation associated with deep aseismic creep on the northern SJF. If the enigmatic normal slip events of the San Bernardino basin are included in stress inversions from the seismic catalog used to assess seismic hazard, the results may provide inaccurate information about fault loading in this region.

  10. Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy (United States)

    Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.


    In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

  11. Searching for Seismically Active Faults in the Gulf of Cadiz (United States)

    Custodio, S.; Antunes, V.; Arroucau, P.


    The repeated occurrence of large magnitude earthquakes in southwest Iberia in historical and instrumental times suggests the presence of active fault segments in the region. However, due to an apparently diffuse seismicity pattern defining a broad region of distributed deformation west of Gibraltar Strait, the question of the location, dimension and geometry of such structures is still open to debate. We recently developed a new algorithm for earthquake location in 3D complex media with laterally varying interface depths, which allowed us to relocate 2363 events having occurred from 2007 to 2013, using P- and S-wave catalog arrival times obtained from the Portuguese Meteorological Institute (IPMA, Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera), for a study area lying between 8.5˚W and 5˚W in longitude and 36˚ and 37.5˚ in latitude. The most remarkable change in the seismicity pattern after relocation is an apparent concentration of events, in the North of the Gulf of Cadiz, along a low angle northward-dipping plane rooted at the base of the crust, which could indicate the presence of a major fault. If confirmed, this would be the first structure clearly illuminated by seismicity in a region that has unleashed large magnitude earthquakes. Here, we present results from the joint analysis of focal mechanism solutions and waveform similarity between neighboring events from waveform cross-correlation in order to assess whether those earthquakes occur on the same fault plane.

  12. Seismic Slip on an Oblique Detachment Fault at Low Angles (United States)

    Janecke, S. U.; Steely, A. N.; Evans, J. P.


    Pseudotachylytes are one of the few accepted indicators of seismic slip along ancient faults. Low-angle normal faults have produced few large earthquakes in historic times and low-angle normal faults (detachment faults) are typically severely misoriented relative to a vertical maximum compressive stress. As a result many geoscientists question whether low-angle normal faults produce earthquakes at low angles. Relationships in southern California show that a major low-angle normal-oblique fault slipped at low angles and produced large earthquakes. The exhumed Late Cenozoic West Salton detachment fault preserves spectacular fault- related pseudotachylytes along its fault plane and injected into its hanging wall and footwall. Composite pseudotachylyte zones are up to 1.25 m thick and persists over lateral distances of at least 10's of meters. Pseudotachylyte is common in most thin sections of damaged fault rocks with more than 20% (by volume) of cataclasite. We recognized the presence of original melt using numerous criteria: abundant spherulites in thin sections, injection structures at both the thin-section and outcrop scale, black aphanitic textures, quenched vein margins, variations in microcrystallite textures and/or size with respect to the vein margin, and glassy textures in hand sample. Multiple earthquakes are inferred to produce the layered "stratigraphy" in some exposures of pseudotachylytes. We infer that the West Salton detachment fault formed and slipped at low angles because it nearly perfectly reactivates a Cretaceous ductile thrust system at the half km scale and dips between 10 and 45 degrees. The about 30 degree NNE dip of the detachment fault on the north side of Yaqui Ridge is likely steeper than its dip during detachment slip because there is local steepening on the flanks of the Yaqui Ridge antiform in a contractional stepover of a crosscutting Quaternary San Felipe dextral fault zone. These relationships indicate a low dip on the detachment

  13. Vaporization of fault water during seismic slip (United States)

    Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, André R.; Fokker, Peter A.


    Laboratory and numerical studies, as well as field observations, indicate that phase transitions of pore water might be an important process in large earthquakes. We present a model of the thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical processes, including a two-phase mixture model to incorporate the phase transitions of pore water, occurring during fast slip (i.e., a natural earthquake) in order to investigate the effects of vaporization on the coseismic slip. Using parameters from typical natural faults, our modeling shows that vaporization can indeed occur at the shallow depths of an earthquake, irrespective of the wide variability of the parameters involved (sliding velocity, friction coefficient, gouge permeability and porosity, and shear-induced dilatancy). Due to the fast kinetics, water vaporization can cause a rapid slip weakening even when the hydrological conditions of the fault zone are not favorable for thermal pressurization, e.g., when permeability is high. At the same time, the latent heat associated with the phase transition causes the temperature rise in the slip zone to be buffered. Our parametric analyses reveal that the amount of frictional work is the principal factor controlling the onset and activity of vaporization and that it can easily be achieved in earthquakes. Our study shows that coseismic pore fluid vaporization might have played important roles at shallow depths of large earthquakes by enhancing slip weakening and buffering the temperature rise. The combined effects may provide an alternative explanation for the fact that low-temperature anomalies were measured in the slip zones at shallow depths of large earthquakes.

  14. Evidential Networks for Fault Tree Analysis with Imprecise Knowledge (United States)

    Yang, Jianping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Liu, Yu; Li, Yan-Feng


    Fault tree analysis (FTA), as one of the powerful tools in reliability engineering, has been widely used to enhance system quality attributes. In most fault tree analyses, precise values are adopted to represent the probabilities of occurrence of those events. Due to the lack of sufficient data or imprecision of existing data at the early stage of product design, it is often difficult to accurately estimate the failure rates of individual events or the probabilities of occurrence of the events. Therefore, such imprecision and uncertainty need to be taken into account in reliability analysis. In this paper, the evidential networks (EN) are employed to quantify and propagate the aforementioned uncertainty and imprecision in fault tree analysis. The detailed conversion processes of some logic gates to EN are described in fault tree (FT). The figures of the logic gates and the converted equivalent EN, together with the associated truth tables and the conditional belief mass tables, are also presented in this work. The new epistemic importance is proposed to describe the effect of ignorance degree of event. The fault tree of an aircraft engine damaged by oil filter plugs is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

  15. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarrack, A.G.


    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

  16. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarrack, A.G.


    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs)

  17. Report on AECB consultative document C-70: The use of fault trees in licensing submissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has issued Consultative Document C-70, 'The Use of Fault Trees in Licensing Submissions', for public comment. The Advisory Committee on Nuclear Safety (ACNS) has examined this document and ACNS members have met with AECB staff and representatives of the nuclear industry to discuss it. The ACNS presents its comments and recommendations in this report. The consultative document defines a fault tree as a hierarchically-structured graphical representation of system failures and their potential causes. The document then states certain basic characteristics or attributes which fault trees should possess, and certain conditions affecting the use of fault trees. It defines fault tree fundamentals, sets criteria for the application of fault trees to systems and defines ground rules for a fault tree format. Finally, in two appendices, it includes specific rules for fault tree symbols and fault tree description files for computer use. The appendices are referred to in the text as 'acceptable' standards or methods

  18. Process plant alarm diagnosis using synthesised fault tree knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenchard, A.J.


    The development of computer based tools, to assist process plant operators in their task of fault/alarm diagnosis, has received much attention over the last twenty five years. More recently, with the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, the research activity in this subject area has heightened. As a result, there are a great variety of fault diagnosis methodologies, using many different approaches to represent the fault propagation behaviour of process plant. These range in complexity from steady state quantitative models to more abstract definitions of the relationships between process alarms. Unfortunately, very few of the techniques have been tried and tested on process plant and even fewer have been judged to be commercial successes. One of the outstanding problems still remains the time and effort required to understand and model the fault propagation behaviour of each considered process. This thesis describes the development of an experimental knowledge based system (KBS) to diagnose process plant faults, as indicated by process variable alarms. In an attempt to minimise the modelling effort, the KBS has been designed to infer diagnoses using a fault tree representation of the process behaviour, generated using an existing fault tree synthesis package (FAULTFINDER). The process is described to FAULTFINDER as a configuration of unit models, derived from a standard model library or by tailoring existing models. The resultant alarm diagnosis methodology appears to work well for hard (non-rectifying) faults, but is likely to be less robust when attempting to diagnose intermittent faults and transient behaviour. The synthesised fault trees were found to contain the bulk of the information required for the diagnostic task, however, this needed to be augmented with extra information in certain circumstances. (author)

  19. Fault Tree Generation and Augmentation, Phase I (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fault Management (FM) is one of the key components of system autonomy. In order to guarantee FM effectiveness and control the cost, tools are required to automate...

  20. Laboratory scale micro-seismic monitoring of rock faulting and injection-induced fault reactivation (United States)

    Sarout, J.; Dautriat, J.; Esteban, L.; Lumley, D. E.; King, A.


    The South West Hub CCS project in Western Australia aims to evaluate the feasibility and impact of geosequestration of CO2 in the Lesueur sandstone formation. Part of this evaluation focuses on the feasibility and design of a robust passive seismic monitoring array. Micro-seismicity monitoring can be used to image the injected CO2plume, or any geomechanical fracture/fault activity; and thus serve as an early warning system by measuring low-level (unfelt) seismicity that may precede potentially larger (felt) earthquakes. This paper describes laboratory deformation experiments replicating typical field scenarios of fluid injection in faulted reservoirs. Two pairs of cylindrical core specimens were recovered from the Harvey-1 well at depths of 1924 m and 2508 m. In each specimen a fault is first generated at the in situ stress, pore pressure and temperature by increasing the vertical stress beyond the peak in a triaxial stress vessel at CSIRO's Geomechanics & Geophysics Lab. The faulted specimen is then stabilized by decreasing the vertical stress. The freshly formed fault is subsequently reactivated by brine injection and increase of the pore pressure until slip occurs again. This second slip event is then controlled in displacement and allowed to develop for a few millimeters. The micro-seismic (MS) response of the rock during the initial fracturing and subsequent reactivation is monitored using an array of 16 ultrasonic sensors attached to the specimen's surface. The recorded MS events are relocated in space and time, and correlate well with the 3D X-ray CT images of the specimen obtained post-mortem. The time evolution of the structural changes induced within the triaxial stress vessel is therefore reliably inferred. The recorded MS activity shows that, as expected, the increase of the vertical stress beyond the peak led to an inclined shear fault. The injection of fluid and the resulting increase in pore pressure led first to a reactivation of the pre

  1. Fault diagnosis of power transformer based on fault-tree analysis (FTA) (United States)

    Wang, Yongliang; Li, Xiaoqiang; Ma, Jianwei; Li, SuoYu


    Power transformers is an important equipment in power plants and substations, power distribution transmission link is made an important hub of power systems. Its performance directly affects the quality and health of the power system reliability and stability. This paper summarizes the five parts according to the fault type power transformers, then from the time dimension divided into three stages of power transformer fault, use DGA routine analysis and infrared diagnostics criterion set power transformer running state, finally, according to the needs of power transformer fault diagnosis, by the general to the section by stepwise refinement of dendritic tree constructed power transformer fault

  2. Improvement of testing and maintenance based on fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.


    Testing and maintenance of safety equipment is an important issue, which significantly contributes to safe and efficient operation of a nuclear power plant. In this paper a method, which extends the classical fault tree with time, is presented. Its mathematical model is represented by a set of equations, which include time requirements defined in the house event matrix. House events matrix is a representation of house events switched on and off through the discrete points of time. It includes house events, which timely switch on and off parts of the fault tree in accordance with the status of the plant configuration. Time dependent top event probability is calculated by the fault tree evaluations. Arrangement of components outages is determined on base of minimization of mean system unavailability. The results show that application of the method may improve the time placement of testing and maintenance activities of safety equipment. (author)

  3. Fault tree analysis. Implementation of the WAM-codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bento, J.P.; Poern, K.


    The report describes work going on at Studsvik at the implementation of the WAM code package for fault tree analysis. These codes originally developed under EPRI contract by Sciences Applications Inc, allow, in contrast with other fault tree codes, all Boolean operations, thus allowing modeling of ''NOT'' conditions and dependent components. To concretize the implementation of these codes, the auxiliary feed-water system of the Swedish BWR Oskarshamn 2 was chosen for the reliability analysis. For this system, both the mean unavailability and the probability density function of the top event - undesired event - of the system fault tree were calculated, the latter using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The present study is the first part of a work performed under contract with the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate. (author)

  4. Fault tree technique: advances in probabilistic and logical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.; Amendola, A.; Contini, S.; Squellati, G.


    Fault tree reliability analysis is used for assessing the risk associated to systems of increasing complexity (phased mission systems, systems with multistate components, systems with non-monotonic structure functions). Much care must be taken to make sure that fault tree technique is not used beyond its correct validity range. To this end a critical review of mathematical foundations of reliability fault tree analysis is carried out. Limitations are enlightened and potential solutions to open problems are suggested. Moreover an overview is given on the most recent developments in the implementation of an integrated software (SALP-MP, SALP-NOT, SALP-CAFT Codes) for the analysis of a wide class of systems

  5. Application Research of Fault Tree Analysis in Grid Communication System Corrective Maintenance (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Yang, Zhenwei; Kang, Mei


    This paper attempts to apply the fault tree analysis method to the corrective maintenance field of grid communication system. Through the establishment of the fault tree model of typical system and the engineering experience, the fault tree analysis theory is used to analyze the fault tree model, which contains the field of structural function, probability importance and so on. The results show that the fault tree analysis can realize fast positioning and well repairing of the system. Meanwhile, it finds that the analysis method of fault tree has some guiding significance to the reliability researching and upgrading f the system.

  6. Simulating spontaneous aseismic and seismic slip events on evolving faults (United States)

    Herrendörfer, Robert; van Dinther, Ylona; Pranger, Casper; Gerya, Taras


    Plate motion along tectonic boundaries is accommodated by different slip modes: steady creep, seismic slip and slow slip transients. Due to mainly indirect observations and difficulties to scale results from laboratory experiments to nature, it remains enigmatic which fault conditions favour certain slip modes. Therefore, we are developing a numerical modelling approach that is capable of simulating different slip modes together with the long-term fault evolution in a large-scale tectonic setting. We extend the 2D, continuum mechanics-based, visco-elasto-plastic thermo-mechanical model that was designed to simulate slip transients in large-scale geodynamic simulations (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). We improve the numerical approach to accurately treat the non-linear problem of plasticity (see also EGU 2017 abstract by Pranger et al.). To resolve a wide slip rate spectrum on evolving faults, we develop an invariant reformulation of the conventional rate-and-state dependent friction (RSF) and adapt the time step (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). A crucial part of this development is a conceptual ductile fault zone model that relates slip rates along discrete planes to the effective macroscopic plastic strain rates in the continuum. We test our implementation first in a simple 2D setup with a single fault zone that has a predefined initial thickness. Results show that deformation localizes in case of steady creep and for very slow slip transients to a bell-shaped strain rate profile across the fault zone, which suggests that a length scale across the fault zone may exist. This continuum length scale would overcome the common mesh-dependency in plasticity simulations and question the conventional treatment of aseismic slip on infinitely thin fault zones. We test the introduction of a diffusion term (similar to the damage description in Lyakhovsky et al., JMPS, 2011) into the state evolution equation and its effect on (de-)localization during faster slip events. We compare

  7. Do scaly clays control seismicity on faulted shale rocks? (United States)

    Orellana, Luis Felipe; Scuderi, Marco M.; Collettini, Cristiano; Violay, Marie


    One of the major challenges regarding the disposal of radioactive waste in geological formations is to ensure isolation of radioactive contamination from the environment and the population. Shales are suitable candidates as geological barriers. However, the presence of tectonic faults within clay formations put the long-term safety of geological repositories into question. In this study, we carry out frictional experiments on intact samples of Opalinus Clay, i.e. the host rock for nuclear waste storage in Switzerland. We report experimental evidence suggesting that scaly clays form at low normal stress (≤20 MPa), at sub-seismic velocities (≤300 μm/s) and is related to pre-existing bedding planes with an ongoing process where frictional sliding is the controlling deformation mechanism. We have found that scaly clays show a velocity-weakening and -strengthening behaviour, low frictional strength, and poor re-strengthening over time, conditions required to allow the potential nucleation and propagation of earthquakes within the scaly clays portion of the formation. The strong similarities between the microstructures of natural and experimental scaly clays suggest important implications for the slip behaviour of shallow faults in shales. If natural and anthropogenic perturbations modify the stress conditions of the fault zone, earthquakes might have the potential to nucleate within zones of scaly clays controlling the seismicity of the clay-rich tectonic system, thus, potentially compromising the long-term safeness of geological repositories situated in shales.

  8. Seismic Imaging of the West Napa Fault in Napa, California (United States)

    Goldman, M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Sickler, R. R.; Nevitt, J. M.; Criley, C.


    In October 2016, we acquired high-resolution P- and S-wave seismic data along a 120-m-long, SW-NE-trending profile in Napa, California. Our seismic survey was designed to image a strand of the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ), which ruptured during the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake. We separately acquired P- and S-wave data at every station using multiple hammer hits, which were edited and stacked into individual shot gathers in the lab. Each shot was co-located with and recorded by 118 P-wave (40-Hz) geophones, spaced at 1 m, and by 180 S-wave (4.5-Hz) geophones, spaced at 1 m. We developed both P- and S-wave tomographic velocity models, as well as Poisson's ratio and a Vp/Vs ratio models. We observed a well-defined zone of elevated Vp/Vs ratios below about 10 m depth, centered beneath the observed surface rupture. P-wave reflection images show that the fault forms a flower-structure in the upper few tens of meters. This method has been shown to delineate fault structures even in areas of rough terrain.

  9. A Low Velocity Zone along the Chaochou Fault in Southern Taiwan: Seismic Image Revealed by a Linear Seismic Array

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Chieh Pu


    Full Text Available The Chaochou fault is one of the major boundary faults in southern Taiwan where strong convergence has taken place between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates. The surface fault trace between the Pingtung plain and the Central Range follows a nearly N-S direction and stretches to 80 km in length. In order to examine the subsurface structures along the Chaochou fault, a linear seismic array with 14 short-period stations was deployed across the fault to record seismic data between August and December 2001. Detailed examination of seismic data generated by 10 local earthquakes and recorded by the linear array has shown that the incidence angles of the first P-waves recorded by several seismic stations at the fault zone were significantly larger than those located farther away from the fault zone. This difference might reflect the lateral variation of velocity structures across the Chaochou fault. Further examination of ray-paths of seismic wave propagation indicates that a low-velocity zone along the Chaochou fault is needed to explain the significant change in incidence angles across the fault zone. Although we do not have adequate information to calculate the exact geometry of the fault zone well, the variation in incidence angles across the fault can be explained by the existence of a low-velocity zone that is about 3 km in width on the surface and extends downward to a depth of 5 km. The low-velocity zone along the Chaochou fault might imply that the fault system consists of several splay faults on the hanging wall in the Central Range.

  10. FTAP, Minimal Cut Sets of Arbitrary Fault Trees. FRTPLT, Fault Tree Structure and Logical Gates Plot for Program FTAP. FRTGEN, Fault Trees by Sub-tree Generator from Parent Tree for Program FTAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willie, Randall R.; Rabien, U.


    1 - Description of problem or function: FTAP is a general-purpose program for deriving minimal reliability cut and path set families from the fault tree for a complex system. The program has a number of useful features that make it well-suited to nearly all fault tree applications. An input fault tree may specify the system state as any logical function of subsystem or component state variables or complements of these variables; thus, for instance, 'exclusive-or' type relations may be formed. When fault tree logical relations involve complements of state variables, the analyst may instruct FTAP to produce a family of prime implicants, a generalization of the minimal cut set concept. The program offers the flexibility of several distinct methods of generating cut set families. FTAP can also identify certain subsystems as system modules and provide a collection of minimal cut set families that essentially expresses the system state as a function of these module state variables. Another feature allows a useful subfamily to be obtained when the family of minimal cut sets or prime implicants is too large to be found in its entirety; this subfamily may consist of only those sets not containing more than some fixed number of elements or only those sets 'interesting' to the analyst in some special sense. Finally, the analyst can modify the input fault tree in various ways by declaring state variables identically true or false. 2 - Method of solution: Fault tree methods are based on the observation that the system state, either working or failed, can usually be expressed as a Boolean relation between states of several large, readily identifiable subsystems. The state of each subsystem in turn depends on states of simpler subsystems and components which compose it, so that the state of the system itself is determined by a hierarchy of logical relationships between states of subsystems. A fault tree is a graphical representation of these relationships. 3 - Restrictions on the

  11. WAMCUT, a computer code for fault tree evaluation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.


    WAMCUT is a code in the WAM family which produces the minimum cut sets (MCS) for a given fault tree. The MCS are useful as they provide a qualitative evaluation of a system, as well as providing a means of determining the probability distribution function for the top of the tree. The program is very efficient and will produce all the MCS in a very short computer time span. 22 figures, 4 tables

  12. Seasonal water storage modulating seismicity on California faults (United States)

    Johnson, C. W.; Fu, Y.; Burgmann, R.


    In California the accumulation of winter snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, surface water in lakes and reservoirs, and groundwater in sedimentary basins follow the annual cycle of wet winters and dry summers. The surface loads resulting from the seasonal changes in water storage produce elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. Micro-earthquakes in California appear to follow a subtle annual cycle, possibly in response to the water load. Previous studies posit that temperature, atmospheric pressure, or hydrologic changes may strain the lithosphere and promote additional earthquakes above background levels. Here we use GPS vertical time series (2006 - 2015) to constrain models of monthly hydrospheric loading and compute annual peak-to-peak stresses on faults throughout northern California, which can exceed 1kPa. Depending on fault geometry the addition or removal of water increases the Coulomb failure stress. The largest stress amplitudes are occurring on dipping reverse faults in the Coast Ranges and along the eastern Sierra Nevada range front. We analyze M≥2.0 earthquakes with known focal mechanisms in northern and central California to resolve fault normal and shear stresses for the focal geometry. Our results reveal more earthquakes occurring during slip-encouraging stress conditions and suggest that earthquake populations are modulated at periods of natural loading cycles, which promote failure by subtle stress changes. The most notable shear-stress change occurs on more shallowly dipping structures. However, vertically dipping strike-slip faults are common throughout California and experience smaller amplitude stress change but still exhibit positive correlation with seasonal loading cycles. Our seismicity analysis suggests the annual hydrologic cycle is a viable mechanism to promote earthquakes and provides new insight to fault mechanical properties.

  13. Evidence for chaotic fault interactions in the seismicity of the San Andreas fault and Nankai trough (United States)

    Huang, Jie; Turcotte, D. L.


    The dynamical behavior introduced by fault interactions is examined here using a simple spring-loaded, slider-block model with velocity-weakening friction. The model consists of two slider blocks coupled to each other and to a constant-velocity driver by elastic springs. For an asymmetric system in which the frictional forces on the two blocks are not equal, the solutions exhibit chaotic behavior. The system's behavior over a range of parameter values seems to be generally analogous to that of weakly coupled segments of an active fault. Similarities between the model simulations and observed patterns of seismicity on the south central San Andreas fault in California and in the Nankai trough along the coast of southwestern Japan.

  14. Quantitative security and safety analysis with attack-fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette


    Cyber physical systems, like power plants, medical devices and data centers have to meet high standards, both in terms of safety (i.e. absence of unintentional failures) and security (i.e. no disruptions due to malicious attacks). This paper presents attack fault trees (AFTs), a formalism that

  15. MFAULT: a computer program for analyzing fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelto, P.J.; Purcell, W.L.


    A description and user instructions are presented for MFAULT, a FORTRAN computer program for fault tree analysis. MFAULT identifies the cut sets of a fault tree, calculates their probabilities, and screens the cut sets on the basis of specified cut-offs on probability and/or cut set length. MFAULT is based on an efficient upward-working algorithm for cut set identification. The probability calculations are based on the assumption of small probabilities and constant hazard rates (i.e., exponential failure distributions). Cut sets consisting of repairable components (basic events) only, non-repairable components only, or mixtures of both types can be evaluated. Components can be on-line or standby. Unavailability contributions from pre-existing failures, failures on demand, and testing and maintenance down-time can be handled. MFAULT can analyze fault trees with AND gates, OR gates, inhibit gates, on switches (houses) and off switches. The code is presently capable of finding up to ten event cut sets from a fault tree with up to 512 basic events and 400 gates. It is operational on the CONTROL DATA CYBER 74 computer. 11 figures

  16. Verification of Fault Tree Models with RBDGG Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol


    Currently, fault tree analysis is widely used in the field of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). To guarantee the correctness of fault tree models, which are usually manually constructed by analysts, a review by other analysts is widely used for verifying constructed fault tree models. Recently, an extension of the reliability block diagram was developed, which is named as RBDGG (reliability block diagram with general gates). The advantage of the RBDGG methodology is that the structure of a RBDGG model is very similar to the actual structure of the analyzed system and, therefore, the modeling of a system for a system reliability and unavailability analysis becomes very intuitive and easy. The main idea of the development of the RBDGG methodology is similar to that of the development of the RGGG (Reliability Graph with General Gates) methodology. The difference between the RBDGG methodology and RGGG methodology is that the RBDGG methodology focuses on the block failures while the RGGG methodology focuses on the connection line failures. But, it is also known that an RGGG model can be converted to an RBDGG model and vice versa. In this paper, a new method for the verification of the constructed fault tree models using the RBDGG methodology is proposed and demonstrated

  17. Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    events is replaced by possibilities, thereby leading to fuzzy fault tree analysis. Triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to represent the failure possibility of basic events. Since a system may have to go through different operating conditions during the design or testing phase. Thus the failure possibility of a basic ...

  18. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.


    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  19. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars


    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  20. Postglacial seismic activity along the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex (United States)

    Ojala, Antti E. K.; Mattila, Jussi; Ruskeeniemi, Timo; Palmu, Jukka-Pekka; Lindberg, Antero; Hänninen, Pekka; Sutinen, Raimo


    Analysis of airborne LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEMs), trenching of Quaternary deposits, and diamond drilling through faulted bedrock was conducted to characterize the geological structure and full slip profiles of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu postglacial fault (PGF) complex in northern Finland. The PGF systems are recognized from LiDAR DEMs as a complex of surface ruptures striking SW-NE, cutting through late-Weichselian till, and associated with several postglacial landslides within 10 km. Evidence from the terrain rupture characteristics, the deformed and folded structure of late-Weichselian till, and the 14C age of 11,300 cal BP from buried organic matter underneath the Sotka landslide indicates a postglacial origin of the Riikonkumpu fault (PGF). The fracture frequency and lithology of drill cores and fault geometry in the trench log indicate that the Riikonkumpu PGF dips to WNW with a dip angle of 40-45° at the Riikonkumpu site and close to 60° at the Riikonvaara site. A fault length of 19 km and the mean and maximum cumulative vertical displacement of 1.3 m and 4.1 m, respectively, of the Riikonkumpu PGF system indicate that the fault potentially hosted an earthquake with a moment magnitude MW ≈ 6.7-7.3 assuming that slip was accumulated in one seismic event. Our interpretation further suggests that the Riikonkumpu PGF system is linked to the Isovaara PGF system and that, together, they form a larger Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex. Relationships between the 38-km-long rupture of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu complex and the fault offset parameters, with cumulative displacement of 1.5 and 8.3 m, respectively, indicate that the earthquake(s) contributing to the PGF complex potentially had a moment magnitude of MW ≈ 6.9-7.5. In order to adequately sample the uncertainty space, the moment magnitude was also estimated for each major segment within the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu PGF complex. These estimates vary roughly between MW ≈ 5-8 for the individual

  1. Faulting of natural serpentinite: Implications for intermediate-depth seismicity (United States)

    Gasc, Julien; Hilairet, Nadège; Yu, Tony; Ferrand, Thomas; Schubnel, Alexandre; Wang, Yanbin


    The seismic potential of serpentinites at high pressure was investigated via deformation experiments on cored natural serpentinite samples, during which micro-seismicity was monitored by recording Acoustic Emissions (AEs). Deformation was performed at pressures of 3-5 GPa, using a Deformation-DIA device, and over a wide range of temperatures, both within and outside antigorite's stability field. Below 400 °C, serpentinite deformation involves ;silent; semi-brittle mechanisms, even in cases where strain localization is observed. At high temperature (i.e., above 600 °C), despite conditions propitious to dehydration embrittlement (i.e., fast strain rates and reaction kinetics), joint deformation and dehydration lead to ductile shear, without generation of AEs. Brittle behavior was observed in a narrow temperature window ca. 500 °C. In this latter case, AEs are consistently observed upon faulting and extremely sharp strain localization is observed in recovered samples. The resulting microstructures are consistent with the inverse ductile-to-brittle transition proposed by Proctor and Hirth (2016) in antigorite. This may therefore be a source of seismicity in subducting slabs at mantle pressures and temperatures from 500 to 600 °C. However, the acoustic signal observed here is orders of magnitude weaker than what is obtained at low PT conditions with brittle failure, consistently with low radiation efficiency of serpentinite faulting (Prieto et al., 2013) and suggests that other mechanisms are responsible for large intermediate-depth earthquakes. In fact, the present results are in line with a recent study (Ferrand et al., 2017), that suggests that intermediate earthquakes are likely induced by mechanical instabilities due to dehydration in partly hydrated peridotites.

  2. Faulting of natural serpentinite: Implications for intermediate-depth seismicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gasc, Julien; Hilairet, Nadège; Yu, Tony; Ferrand, Thomas; Schubnel, Alexandre; Wang, Yanbin


    The seismic potential of serpentinites at high pressure was investigated via deformation experiments on cored natural serpentinite samples, during which micro-seismicity was monitored by recording Acoustic Emissions (AEs). Deformation was performed at pressures of 3–5 GPa, using a Deformation-DIA device, and over a wide range of temperatures, both within and outside antigorite's stability field. Below 400 °C, serpentinite deformation involves “silent” semi-brittle mechanisms, even in cases where strain localization is observed. At high temperature (i.e., above 600 °C), despite conditions propitious to dehydration embrittlement (i.e., fast strain rates and reaction kinetics), joint deformation and dehydration lead to ductile shear, without generation of AEs. Brittle behavior was observed in a narrow temperature window ca. 500 °C. In this latter case, AEs are consistently observed upon faulting and extremely sharp strain localization is observed in recovered samples. The resulting microstructures are consistent with the inverse ductile-to-brittle transition proposed by Proctor and Hirth (2016) in antigorite. This may therefore be a source of seismicity in subducting slabs at mantle pressures and temperatures from 500 to 600 °C. However, the acoustic signal observed here is orders of magnitude weaker than what is obtained at low PT conditions with brittle failure, consistently with low radiation efficiency of serpentinite faulting (Prieto et al., 2013) and suggests that other mechanisms are responsible for large intermediate-depth earthquakes. In fact, the present results are in line with a recent study (Ferrand et al., 2017), that suggests that intermediate earthquakes are likely induced by mechanical instabilities due to dehydration in partly hydrated peridotites.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Bornyakov


    Full Text Available Based on the results of a laboratory simulation of the seismic fault reactivation by “stick-slip” process, it was shown that the system of two blocks just before an impulse offset goes through the meta-instable dynamic state, with early and late stages of meta-instability [Ma et al., 2012]. In the first stage the offset begins in slow stationary mode with slow stresses relaxation on contact between blocks. In the second stage of the “accelerated synergies” strain rate increases and, subsequently, the deformation process through a process of self-organization came to dynamic impulse offset. The experimental results were used for interpretation of the results of spectral analysis of the deformation monitoring data. The data were held within the southern part ofLakeBaikal, where Kultuk earthquake (27.08.2008, Ms=6.1. took place. Its epicenter was located in the South end zone of the main Sayan fault. Monitoring of deformations of rocks was carried out from April to November2008 in tunnel, located at30 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. The time series data was divided into month periods and then the periods were processed by the method of spectral analysis. The results showed that before the earthquake has ordered view spectrogram, whereas in other time intervals, both before and after the earthquake such orderliness in spectrograms is missing. An ordered view spectrograms for deformation monitoring data can be interpreted as a consequence of the self-organiza­tion of deformation process in the transition of seismically active fault into meta-unstable before the Kultuk earthquake.

  4. Dating paleo-seismic faulting in the Taiwan Mountain Belt (United States)

    Lo, C. H.; Wu, C. Y.; Chu, H. T.; Yui, T. F.


    In-situ 40Ar/39Ar laser microprobe dating was carried out on the Hoping pseudotachylite from a mylonite-fault zone in the metamorphosed basement complex of the active Taiwan Mountain Belt to determine the timing of the responsible earthquake(s). The dating results, distributed between 3.2 to 1.6 Ma with errors ranging 0.2 1.1 Ma, were derived from a combination of two Ar isotopic system end-members with inverse isochron ages of 1.55±0.05 and 2.87±0.07 Ma, respectively. Fault melt was found mixed with ultracataclasis in petrographical observations, therefore the older inverse isochron end-member may be attributed to the relic wall rock Ar isotopic system contained in micro-breccia as published 40Ar/39Ar mylonitization ages from 4.1 to 3.0 Ma. Without significant Ar loss expected, the young 1.6 Ma end-member represents the Ar isotopic system and age of the exact pseudotachylite. Seismic faulting therefore occurred during basement rock exhumation in the Taiwanese hinterland.

  5. Active fault and other geological studies for seismic assessment: present state and problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kakimi, Toshihiro [Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., Tokyo (Japan)


    Evaluation system of earthquakes from an active fault is, in Japan, based on the characteristic earthquake model of a wide sense that postulates essentially the same (nearly the maximum) magnitude and recurrence interval during the recent geological times. Earthquake magnitude M is estimated by empirical relations among M, surface rupture length L, and surface fault displacement D per event of the earthquake faults on land in Japan. Recurrence interval R of faulting/earthquake is calculated from D and the long-term slip rate S of a fault as R=D/S. Grouping or segmentation of complicatedly distributed faults is an important, but difficult problem in order to distinguish a seismogenic fault unit corresponding to an individual characteristic earthquake. If the time t of the latest event is obtained, the `cautiousness` of a fault can be judged from R-t or t/R. According to this idea, several faults whose t/R exceed 0.5 have been designated as the `precaution faults` having higher probability of earthquake occurrence than the others. A part of above evaluation has been introduced at first into the seismic-safety examination system of NPPs in 1978. According to the progress of research on active faults, the weight of interest in respect to the seismic hazard assessment shifted gradually from the historic data to the fault data. Most of recent seismic hazard maps have been prepared in consideration with active faults on land in Japan. Since the occurrence of the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, social attention has been concentrated upon the seismic hazard due to active faults, because this event was generated from a well-known active fault zone that had been warned as a `precaution fault`. In this paper, a few recent topics on other geological and geotechnical researches aiming at improving the seismic safety of NPPs in Japan were also introduced. (J.P.N.)

  6. Systems analysis approach to probabilistic modeling of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomew, R.J.; Qualls, C.R.


    A method of probabilistic modeling of fault tree logic combined with stochastic process theory (Markov modeling) has been developed. Systems are then quantitatively analyzed probabilistically in terms of their failure mechanisms including common cause/common mode effects and time dependent failure and/or repair rate effects that include synergistic and propagational mechanisms. The modeling procedure results in a state vector set of first order, linear, inhomogeneous, differential equations describing the time dependent probabilities of failure described by the fault tree. The solutions of this Failure Mode State Variable (FMSV) model are cumulative probability distribution functions of the system. A method of appropriate synthesis of subsystems to form larger systems is developed and applied to practical nuclear power safety systems

  7. Mode automata and their compilation into fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauzy, Antoine


    In this article, we advocate the use of mode automata as a high level representation language for reliability studies. Mode automata are states/transitions based representations with the additional notion of flow. They can be seen as a generalization of both finite capacity Petri nets and block diagrams. They can be assembled into hierarchies by means of composition operations. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, we introduce mode automata and we discuss their relationship with other formalisms. Second, we propose an algorithm to compile mode automata into Boolean equations (fault trees). Such a compilation is of interest for two reasons. First, assessment tools for Boolean models are much more efficient than those for states/transitions models. Second, the automated generation of fault trees from higher level representations makes easier their maintenance through the life cycle of systems under study

  8. Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Ekariansyah, Andi Sofrany; Tjahjono, Hendro


    Highlights: • Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is to evaluate epistemic uncertainty in fuzzy fault tree analysis. • Fuzzy probabilities represent likelihood occurrences of all events in a fault tree. • A fuzzy multiplication rule quantifies epistemic uncertainty of minimal cut sets. • A fuzzy complement rule estimate epistemic uncertainty of the top event. • The proposed FPFTA has successfully evaluated the U.S. Combustion Engineering RPS. - Abstract: A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering systems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is performed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis

  9. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.


    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  10. Seismic cycle and seismic risk of an active faults network: the Corinth rift case (Greece)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiselet, Aurelien


    The Corinth rift (Greece) is one of the regions with the highest strain rates (16 mm/y extension rate) in the Euro-Mediterranean area and as such it has long been identified as a site of major importance for earthquake studies in Europe (20 years of research by the Corinth Rift Laboratory and 4 years of in-depth studies by the ANR-SISCOR project). This enhanced knowledge, acquired in particular, in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth (CRL region), an area about 50 by 40 km 2 , between the city of Patras to the west and the city of Aigion to the east, provides an excellent opportunity to compare fault-based (FB) and classical seismo-tectonic (ST) approaches currently used in seismic hazard assessment studies. An homogeneous earthquake catalogue was thus constructed for the purpose of this study along with a comprehensive database of all relevant geological, geodetic and geophysical information available in the literature and recently collected within the ANR-SISCOR project. The homogenized Mw earthquake catalogue is composed of data from the National Observatory of Athens and from the university of Thessaloniki as well as data acquired through historical and instrumental work performed within the ANR-SISCOR group for the CRL region. A frequency magnitude analysis confirms that seismicity rates are governed by Gutenberg-Richter (GR) statistic for 1.2 =6 earthquakes were computed for the region of study. Time dependent models (Brownian Passage time and Weibull probability distributions) were also explored. The probability (normalized by area) of a M≥6.0 earthquake is found to be greater in the CRL region compared to the eastern part of the Corinth rift. Probability estimates corresponding to the 16. and 84. percentile are also provided, as a means of representing the range of uncertainties in the results. Probability estimates based on the ST-approach are then compared to those based on the FB approach approach. In general ST tends to overestimate probabilities

  11. Fault diagnostics of dynamic system operation using a fault tree based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurdle, E.E.; Bartlett, L.M.; Andrews, J.D.


    For conventional systems, their availability can be considerably improved by reducing the time taken to restore the system to the working state when faults occur. Fault identification can be a significant proportion of the time taken in the repair process. Having diagnosed the problem the restoration of the system back to its fully functioning condition can then take place. This paper expands the capability of previous approaches to fault detection and identification using fault trees for application to dynamically changing systems. The technique has two phases. The first phase is modelling and preparation carried out offline. This gathers information on the effects that sub-system failure will have on the system performance. Causes of the sub-system failures are developed in the form of fault trees. The second phase is application. Sensors are installed on the system to provide information about current system performance from which the potential causes can be deduced. A simple system example is used to demonstrate the features of the method. To illustrate the potential for the method to deal with additional system complexity and redundancy, a section from an aircraft fuel system is used. A discussion of the results is provided.

  12. Transposing an active fault database into a fault-based seismic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities - Part 2: Impact of fault parameter uncertainties on a site-specific PSHA exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben, eastern France (United States)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Clément, Christophe; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane


    We perform a fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben to quantify the relative influence of fault parameters on the hazard at the Fessenheim nuclear power plant site. Specifically, we show that the potentially active faults described in the companion paper (Jomard et al., 2017, hereafter Part 1) are the dominant factor in hazard estimates at the low annual probability of exceedance relevant for the safety assessment of nuclear installations. Geological information documenting the activity of the faults in this region, however, remains sparse, controversial and affected by a high degree of uncertainty. A logic tree approach is thus implemented to explore the epistemic uncertainty and quantify its impact on the seismic hazard estimates. Disaggregation of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard at a 10 000-year return period shows that the Rhine River fault is the main seismic source controlling the hazard level at the site. Sensitivity tests show that the uncertainty on the slip rate of the Rhine River fault is the dominant factor controlling the variability of the seismic hazard level, greater than the epistemic uncertainty due to ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Uncertainty on slip rate estimates from 0.04 to 0.1 mm yr-1 results in a 40 to 50 % increase in hazard levels at the 10 000-year target return period. Reducing epistemic uncertainty in future fault-based PSHA studies at this site will thus require (1) performing in-depth field studies to better characterize the seismic potential of the Rhine River fault; (2) complementing GMPEs with more physics-based modelling approaches to better account for the near-field effects of ground motion and (3) improving the modelling of the background seismicity. Indeed, in this exercise, we assume that background earthquakes can only host M 6. 0 earthquakes have been recently identified at depth within the Upper Rhine Graben (see Part 1) but are not accounted

  13. Relationships between along-fault heterogeneous normal stress and fault slip patterns during the seismic cycle: Insights from a strike-slip fault laboratory model (United States)

    Caniven, Yannick; Dominguez, Stéphane; Soliva, Roger; Peyret, Michel; Cattin, Rodolphe; Maerten, Frantz


    We use a strike-slip fault analog model to study experimentally the role played by along-fault non-uniform and asymmetric applied normal stress on both coseismic slip and long-term fault behavior. Our model is based on a visco-elasto-plastic multi-layered rheology that allows to produce several hundreds of scaled analog microquakes and associated seismic cycles. Uniform or heterogeneous applied normal stress along the fault plane is imposed and maintained constant during the whole experiment durations. Our results suggest that coseismic slip patterns are strongly controlled by spatial normal stress variations and subsequent accumulated shear stress along fault strike. Major microquakes occur preferentially in zones of major shear stress asperities. Coseismic slip distributions exhibit a pattern similar to the along-fault applied normal stress distribution. The occurrence of isolated low to moderate microquakes where residual stresses persist around secondary stress asperities, indicates that stress conditions along the fault also control the whole variability of fault slip events. Moreover, when fault slip stability conditions are modulated by normal stress distribution, our experiments suggest that the along-fault stress heterogeneity influences the seismic cycle regularity and, consequently, long-term fault slip behavior. Uniform applied normal stress favors irregular seismic cycles and the occurrence of earthquakes clustering, whereas non-uniform normal stress with a single high amplitude stress asperity generates strong characteristic microquake events with stable return periods. Together our results strengthen the assumption that coseismic slip distribution and earthquake variability along an active fault may provide relevant information on long term tectonic stress and could thus improve seismic hazard assessment.

  14. New algorithm to detect modules in a fault tree for a PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik


    A module or independent subtree is a part of a fault tree whose child gates or basic events are not repeated in the remaining part of the fault tree. Modules are necessarily employed in order to reduce the computational costs of fault tree quantification. This paper presents a new linear time algorithm to detect modules of large fault trees. The size of cut sets can be substantially reduced by replacing independent subtrees in a fault tree with super-components. Chatterjee and Birnbaum developed properties of modules, and demonstrated their use in the fault tree analysis. Locks expanded the concept of modules to non-coherent fault trees. Independent subtrees were manually identified while coding a fault tree for computer analysis. However, nowadays, the independent subtrees are automatically identified by the fault tree solver. A Dutuit and Rauzy (DR) algorithm to detect modules of a fault tree for coherent or non-coherent fault tree was proposed in 1996. It has been well known that this algorithm quickly detects modules since it is a linear time algorithm. The new algorithm minimizes computational memory and quickly detects modules. Furthermore, it can be easily implemented into industry fault tree solvers that are based on traditional Boolean algebra, binary decision diagrams (BDDs), or Zero-suppressed BDDs. The new algorithm employs only two scalar variables in Eqs. to that are volatile information. After finishing the traversal and module detection of each node, the volatile information is destroyed. Thus, the new algorithm does not employ any other additional computational memory and operations. It is recommended that this method be implemented into fault tree solvers for efficient probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants

  15. Fault2SHA- A European Working group to link faults and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment communities in Europe (United States)

    Scotti, Oona; Peruzza, Laura


    The key questions we ask are: What is the best strategy to fill in the gap in knowledge and know-how in Europe when considering faults in seismic hazard assessments? Are field geologists providing the relevant information for seismic hazard assessment? Are seismic hazard analysts interpreting field data appropriately? Is the full range of uncertainties associated with the characterization of faults correctly understood and propagated in the computations? How can fault-modellers contribute to a better representation of the long-term behaviour of fault-networks in seismic hazard studies? Providing answers to these questions is fundamental, in order to reduce the consequences of future earthquakes and improve the reliability of seismic hazard assessments. An informal working group was thus created at a meeting in Paris in November 2014, partly financed by the Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety, with the aim to motivate exchanges between field geologists, fault modellers and seismic hazard practitioners. A variety of approaches were presented at the meeting and a clear gap emerged between some field geologists, that are not necessarily familiar with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methods and needs and practitioners that do not necessarily propagate the "full" uncertainty associated with the characterization of faults. The group thus decided to meet again a year later in Chieti (Italy), to share concepts and ideas through a specific exercise on a test case study. Some solutions emerged but many problems of seismic source characterizations with people working in the field as well as with people tackling models of interacting faults remained. Now, in Wien, we want to open the group and launch a call for the European community at large to contribute to the discussion. The 2016 EGU session Fault2SHA is motivated by such an urgency to increase the number of round tables on this topic and debate on the peculiarities of using faults in seismic hazard

  16. Modularization of fault trees: a method to reduce the cost of analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, P.


    The problem of analyzing large fault trees is considered. The concept of the finest modular representation of a fault tree is introduced and an algorithm is presented for finding this representation. The algorithm will also identify trees which cannot be modularized. Applications of such modularizations are discussed

  17. Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs (United States)

    We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marce...

  18. Inferring Fault Frictional and Reservoir Hydraulic Properties From Injection-Induced Seismicity (United States)

    Jagalur-Mohan, Jayanth; Jha, Birendra; Wang, Zheng; Juanes, Ruben; Marzouk, Youssef


    Characterizing the rheological properties of faults and the evolution of fault friction during seismic slip are fundamental problems in geology and seismology. Recent increases in the frequency of induced earthquakes have intensified the need for robust methods to estimate fault properties. Here we present a novel approach for estimation of aquifer and fault properties, which combines coupled multiphysics simulation of injection-induced seismicity with adaptive surrogate-based Bayesian inversion. In a synthetic 2-D model, we use aquifer pressure, ground displacements, and fault slip measurements during fluid injection to estimate the dynamic fault friction, the critical slip distance, and the aquifer permeability. Our forward model allows us to observe nonmonotonic evolutions of shear traction and slip on the fault resulting from the interplay of several physical mechanisms, including injection-induced aquifer expansion, stress transfer along the fault, and slip-induced stress relaxation. This interplay provides the basis for a successful joint inversion of induced seismicity, yielding well-informed Bayesian posterior distributions of dynamic friction and critical slip. We uncover an inverse relationship between dynamic friction and critical slip distance, which is in agreement with the small dynamic friction and large critical slip reported during seismicity on mature faults.

  19. Integrated system fault diagnostics utilising digraph and fault tree-based approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartlett, L.M.; Hurdle, E.E.; Kelly, E.M.


    With the growing intolerance to failures within systems, the issue of fault diagnosis has become ever prevalent. Information concerning these possible failures can help to minimise the disruption to the functionality of the system by allowing quick rectification. Traditional approaches to fault diagnosis within engineering systems have focused on sequential testing procedures and real-time mechanisms. Both methods have been predominantly limited to single fault causes. Latest approaches also consider the issue of multiple faults in reflection to the characteristics of modern day systems designed for high reliability. In addition, a diagnostic capability is required in real time and for changeable system functionality. This paper focuses on two approaches which have been developed to cater for the demands of diagnosis within current engineering systems, namely application of the fault tree analysis technique and the method of digraphs. Both use a comparative approach to consider differences between actual system behaviour and that expected. The procedural guidelines are discussed for each method, with an experimental aircraft fuel system used to test and demonstrate the features of the techniques. The effectiveness of the approaches is compared and their future potential highlighted

  20. Simulation of Co-Seismic Off-Fault Stress Effects: Influence of Fault Roughness and Pore Pressure Coupling (United States)

    Fälth, B.; Lund, B.; Hökmark, H.


    Aiming at improved safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories, we use dynamic 3D earthquake simulations to estimate the potential for co-seismic off-fault distributed fracture slip. Our model comprises a 12.5 x 8.5 km strike-slip fault embedded in a full space continuum where we apply a homogeneous initial stress field. In the reference case (Case 1) the fault is planar and oriented optimally for slip, given the assumed stress field. To examine the potential impact of fault roughness, we also study cases where the fault surface has undulations with self-similar fractal properties. In both the planar and the undulated cases the fault has homogeneous frictional properties. In a set of ten rough fault models (Case 2), the fault friction is equal to that of Case 1, meaning that these models generate lower seismic moments than Case 1. In another set of ten rough fault models (Case 3), the fault dynamic friction is adjusted such that seismic moments on par with that of Case 1 are generated. For the propagation of the earthquake rupture we adopt the linear slip-weakening law and obtain Mw 6.4 in Case 1 and Case 3, and Mw 6.3 in Case 2 (35 % lower moment than Case 1). During rupture we monitor the off-fault stress evolution along the fault plane at 250 m distance and calculate the corresponding evolution of the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) on optimally oriented hypothetical fracture planes. For the stress-pore pressure coupling, we assume Skempton's coefficient B = 0.5 as a base case value, but also examine the sensitivity to variations of B. We observe the following: (I) The CFS values, and thus the potential for fracture slip, tend to increase with the distance from the hypocenter. This is in accordance with results by other authors. (II) The highest CFS values are generated by quasi-static stress concentrations around fault edges and around large scale fault bends, where we obtain values of the order of 10 MPa. (III) Locally, fault roughness may have a

  1. Waste Management Fault Tree Data Bank (WM): 1992 status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.; Townsend, C.S.


    The Risk Assessment Methodology Group (RAM) of the Nuclear Process Safety Research Section (NPSR) maintains a compilation of incidents that have occurred in the Waste Management facilities. The Waste Management Fault Tree Data Bank (WM) contains more than 35,000 entries ranging from minor equipment malfunctions to incidents with significant potential for injury or contamination of personnel. This report documents the status of the WM data bank including: availability, training, source of data, search options, and usage, to which these data have been applied. Periodic updates to this memorandum are planned as additional data or applications are acquired

  2. Fault mechanics and post-seismic deformation at Bam, SE Iran (United States)

    Wimpenny, Sam; Copley, Alex; Ingleby, Tom


    The extent to which aseismic deformation relaxes co-seismic stress changes on a fault zone is fundamental to assessing the future seismic hazard following any earthquake, and in understanding the mechanical behaviour of faults. Here we use models of stress-driven afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in conjunction with post-seismic InSAR measurements, to show that there has been minimal release of co-seismic stress changes through post-seismic deformation following the 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam earthquake. Our analysis indicates the faults at Bam remain predominantly locked, suggesting that the co- plus interseismically accumulated elastic strain stored downdip of the 2003 rupture patch may be released in a future Mw 6 earthquake. Our observations and models also provide an opportunity to probe the growth of topography at Bam. We find that, for our modelled afterslip distribution to be consistent with forming the sharp step in the local topography over repeated earthquake cycles, and also to be consistent with the geodetic observations, requires either (1) far-field tectonic loading equivalent to a 2-10 MPa deviatoric stress acting across the fault system, which suggests it supports stresses 60-100 times less than classical views of static fault strength, or (2) that the fault surface has some form of mechanical anisotropy, potentially related to corrugations on the fault plane, that controls the sense of slip.

  3. A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric


    South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

  4. Structure and seismic hazard of the Ventura Avenue anticline and Ventura fault, California (United States)

    Hubbard, J.; Shaw, J. H.; Dolan, J. F.; Pratt, T. L.; McAuliffe, L. J.


    The Ventura Avenue anticline, in the western Transverse Ranges, is one of the fastest uplifting structures in southern California, rising at a rate of ~5 mm/yr (Rockwell et al., 1988). However, there is disagreement about whether this structure poses a seismic hazard, due to uncertainty about the nature of the Ventura fault, which lies along the southern margin of the fold. Two models have been proposed: either the Ventura fault extends to seismogenic depths beneath the anticline (e.g., Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1976), or it is a shallow, bending-moment fault that does not pose a significant seismic hazard (e.g., Yeats, 1982a,b; Huftile and Yeats, 1995). Seismic data across the tip of the Ventura fault suggest that it deforms late Pleistocene and younger strata, implying that the fault system is active. Given that the fault trace extends directly through the city of Ventura, distinguishing between these two interpretations has considerable importance in regional seismic hazard assessments. We use well data, industry seismic reflection profiles, and two seismic profiles acquired by our group in August 2010, to construct a more complete 3D model of the system. Based on dipmeter logs and stratigraphic cutoffs imaged in seismic reflection profiles, we show that the north-dipping Ventura fault extends to seismogenic depth beneath the anticline. Fault offset increases with depth, implying that the Ventura fault has propagated upwards over time. Thus, we interpret the Ventura Avenue anticline to be a fault-propagation fold underlain by an active thrust ramp. A decrease in the uplift rate of the anticline at 30 ka, as measured from uplifted terraces (Rockwell et al., 1988), is consistent with a breakthrough of the Ventura fault at that time, although the fault is still blind as it is buried by a sedimentary cover. In order to assess the hazard of the fault, we examine its regional extent. The Ventura fold trend continues offshore and coincides with a set of oil fields. A 3D

  5. Quantile arithmetic methodology for uncertainty propagation in fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelhai, M.; Ragheb, M.


    A methodology based on quantile arithmetic, the probabilistic analog to interval analysis, is proposed for the computation of uncertainties propagation in fault tree analysis. The basic events' continuous probability density functions (pdf's) are represented by equivalent discrete distributions by dividing them into a number of quantiles N. Quantile arithmetic is then used to performthe binary arithmetical operations corresponding to the logical gates in the Boolean expression of the top event expression of a given fault tree. The computational advantage of the present methodology as compared with the widely used Monte Carlo method was demonstrated for the cases of summation of M normal variables through the efficiency ratio defined as the product of the labor and error ratios. The efficiency ratio values obtained by the suggested methodology for M = 2 were 2279 for N = 5, 445 for N = 25, and 66 for N = 45 when compared with the results for 19,200 Monte Carlo samples at the 40th percentile point. Another advantage of the approach is that the exact analytical value of the median is always obtained for the top event

  6. Nonlinear dynamic failure process of tunnel-fault system in response to strong seismic event (United States)

    Yang, Zhihua; Lan, Hengxing; Zhang, Yongshuang; Gao, Xing; Li, Langping


    Strong earthquakes and faults have significant effect on the stability capability of underground tunnel structures. This study used a 3-Dimensional Discrete Element model and the real records of ground motion in the Wenchuan earthquake to investigate the dynamic response of tunnel-fault system. The typical tunnel-fault system was composed of one planned railway tunnel and one seismically active fault. The discrete numerical model was prudentially calibrated by means of the comparison between the field survey and numerical results of ground motion. It was then used to examine the detailed quantitative information on the dynamic response characteristics of tunnel-fault system, including stress distribution, strain, vibration velocity and tunnel failure process. The intensive tunnel-fault interaction during seismic loading induces the dramatic stress redistribution and stress concentration in the intersection of tunnel and fault. The tunnel-fault system behavior is characterized by the complicated nonlinear dynamic failure process in response to a real strong seismic event. It can be qualitatively divided into 5 main stages in terms of its stress, strain and rupturing behaviors: (1) strain localization, (2) rupture initiation, (3) rupture acceleration, (4) spontaneous rupture growth and (5) stabilization. This study provides the insight into the further stability estimation of underground tunnel structures under the combined effect of strong earthquakes and faults.

  7. Comparison of event tree, fault tree and Markov methods for probabilistic safety assessment and application to accident mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, H.; Harris, M.J.; Hall, S.F.


    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is used extensively in the nuclear industry. The main stages of PSA and the traditional event tree method are described. Focussing on hydrogen explosions, an event tree model is compared to a novel Markov model and a fault tree, and unexpected implication for accident mitigation is revealed. (author)

  8. Ultra-thin clay layers facilitate seismic slip in carbonate faults. (United States)

    Smeraglia, Luca; Billi, Andrea; Carminati, Eugenio; Cavallo, Andrea; Di Toro, Giulio; Spagnuolo, Elena; Zorzi, Federico


    Many earthquakes propagate up to the Earth's surface producing surface ruptures. Seismic slip propagation is facilitated by along-fault low dynamic frictional resistance, which is controlled by a number of physico-chemical lubrication mechanisms. In particular, rotary shear experiments conducted at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ) show that phyllosilicates can facilitate co-seismic slip along faults during earthquakes. This evidence is crucial for hazard assessment along oceanic subduction zones, where pelagic clays participate in seismic slip propagation. Conversely, the reason why, in continental domains, co-seismic slip along faults can propagate up to the Earth's surface is still poorly understood. We document the occurrence of micrometer-thick phyllosilicate-bearing layers along a carbonate-hosted seismogenic extensional fault in the central Apennines, Italy. Using friction experiments, we demonstrate that, at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ), similar calcite gouges with pre-existing phyllosilicate-bearing (clay content ≤3 wt.%) micro-layers weaken faster than calcite gouges or mixed calcite-phyllosilicate gouges. We thus propose that, within calcite gouge, ultra-low clay content (≤3 wt.%) localized along micrometer-thick layers can facilitate seismic slip propagation during earthquakes in continental domains, possibly enhancing surface displacement.

  9. Implications of Seismically Active Fault Structures in Ankay and Alaotra Regions of Northern and Central Madagascar (United States)

    Malloy, S.; Stamps, D. S.


    The purpose of the study is to gain a better understanding of the seismically active fault structures in central and northern Madagascar. We study the Ankay and Lake Alaotra regions of Madagascar, which are segmented by multiple faults that strike N-S. In general, normal seismic events occur on faults bounding the Alaotra-Ankay rift basin where Quaternary alluvium is present. Due to this pattern and moderate amounts of low magnitude seismic activity along these faults, it is hypothesized the region currently undergoes E-W extension. In this work we test how variations in fault strength and net slip changes influence expected crustal movement in the region. Using the Coulomb stress failure point as a test of strength we are able to model the Alaotra-Ankay region using MATLAB Coulomb 3.3.01. This program allows us to define realistic Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus of mapped rock compositions in the region, i.e. paragneiss and orthogneiss, create 3D fault geometries, and calculate static stress changes with coinciding surface displacements. We impose slip along multiple faults and calculate seismic moment that we balance by the 3 observed earthquake magnitudes available in the USGS CMT database. Our calculations of surface displacements indicate 1-3 millimeters could be observed across the Alaotra-Ankay rift. These values are within the observable range of precision GNSS observations, therefore our results will guide future research into the area and direct potential GNSS station installation.

  10. Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; Cappa, Frédéric; Moridis, George J.


    We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned towards conditions usually encountered in the Marcellus shale play in the Northeastern US at an approximate depth of 1500 m (~;;4,500 feet). Our modeling simulations indicate that when faults are present, micro-seismic events are possible, the magnitude of which is somewhat larger than the one associated with micro-seismic events originating from regular hydraulic fracturing because of the larger surface area that is available for rupture. The results of our simulations indicated fault rupture lengths of about 10 to 20 m, which, in rare cases can extend to over 100 m, depending on the fault permeability, the in situ stress field, and the fault strength properties. In addition to a single event rupture length of 10 to 20 m, repeated events and aseismic slip amounted to a total rupture length of 50 m, along with a shear offset displacement of less than 0.01 m. This indicates that the possibility of hydraulically induced fractures at great depth (thousands of meters) causing activation of faults and creation of a new flow path that can reach shallow groundwater resources (or even the surface) is remote. The expected low permeability of faults in producible shale is clearly a limiting factor for the possible rupture length and seismic magnitude. In fact, for a fault that is initially nearly-impermeable, the only possibility of larger fault slip event would be opening by hydraulic fracturing; this would allow pressure to penetrate the matrix along the fault and to reduce the frictional strength over a sufficiently large fault surface patch. However, our simulation results show that if the fault is initially impermeable, hydraulic fracturing along the fault results in numerous small micro-seismic events along with the propagation, effectively

  11. A new methodology for the computer-aided construction of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, S.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.


    A methodology for systematically constructing fault trees for general complex systems is developed. A means of modeling component behaviour via decision tables is presented, and a procedure, and a procedure for constructing and editing fault trees, either manually or by computer, is developed. The techniques employed result in a complete fault tree in standard form. In order to demonstrate the methodology, the computer program CAT was developed and is used to construct trees for a nuclear system. By analyzing and comparing these fault trees, several conclusions are reached. First, such an approach can be used to produce fault trees that accurately describe system behaviour. Second, multiple trees can be rapidly produced by defining various TOP events, including system success. Finally, the accuracy and utility of such trees is shown to depend upon the careful development of the decision table models by the analyst, and of the overall system definition itself. Thus the method is seen to be a tool for assisting in the work of fault tree construction rather than a replacement for the careful work of the fault tree analyst. (author)

  12. Faults and fractures detection in 2D seismic data based on principal component analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poorandokht Soltani


    Full Text Available Various approached have been introduced to extract as much as information form seismic image for any specific reservoir or geological study. Modeling of faults and fractures are among the most attracted objects for interpretation in geological study on seismic images that several strategies have been presented for this specific purpose. In this study, we have presented a modified approach of application concept of the principle components analysis to enhance faults and fractures from low quality seismic image. In the first step, relevant attributes considering imaging faults and fractures were have drawn based on vast study on previous successful applications of different attributes. Subsequently, major informative components of each attribute were defined by performing principle component analysis. Since random noise in seismic image exhibits no correlation in seismic data, true reflectors and diffraction events show high coherency value thus these objects would be separated into different orthogonal components in principle component analysis. It will make it easy to remove irrelevant information considering faults and fractures from seismic image and thus will make a higher quality image by combining attribute sections in principle component analysis. Afterwards, selected components were stacked to enhance the fault position in final image. However, since that are other geological objects that might show correlation in other orthogonal components, so there should be refinement step on the final image to stack only the favorable information. This approach was performed on a field land data example form north east of Iran. Result of application the proposed strategy shows that the method is capable to image faults compared to the conventional image analysis for fault detection. The method was also capable to image accurate position of the body of mud volcanoes exited in the image that could not be easily tracked by conventional seismic image

  13. High-Resolution Seismic Reflection Imaging of the Reelfoot Fault, New Madrid, Missouri (United States)

    Rosandich, B.; Harris, J. B.; Woolery, E. W.


    Earthquakes in the Lower Mississippi Valley are mainly concentrated in the New Madrid Seismic Zone and are associated with reactivated faults of the Reelfoot Rift. Determining the relationship between the seismogenic faults (in crystalline basement rocks) and deformation at the Earth's surface and in the shallow subsurface has remained an active research topic for decades. An integrated seismic data set, including compressional (P-) wave and shear (S-) wave seismic reflection profiles, was collected in New Madrid, Missouri, across the "New Madrid" segment of the Reelfoot Fault, whose most significant rupture produced the M 7.5, February 7, 1812, New Madrid earthquake. The seismic reflection profiles (215 m long) were centered on the updip projection of the fault, which is associated with a surface drainage feature (Des Cyprie Slough) located at the base of a prominent east-facing escarpment. The seismic reflection profiles were collected using 48-channel (P-wave) and 24-channel (S-wave) towable landsteamer acquisition equipment. Seismic energy was generated by five vertical impacts of a 1.8-kg sledgehammer on a small aluminum plate for the P-wave data and five horizontal impacts of the sledgehammer on a 10-kg steel I-beam for the S-wave data. Interpretation of the profiles shows a west-dipping reverse fault (Reelfoot Fault) that propagates upward from Paleozoic sedimentary rocks (>500 m deep) to near-surface Quaternary sediments (<10 m deep). The hanging wall of the fault is anticlinally folded, a structural setting almost identical to that imaged on the Kentucky Bend and Reelfoot Lake segments (of the Reelfoot Fault) to the south.

  14. Shallow seismic imaging of folds above the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault, Los Angeles, California (United States)

    Pratt, Thomas L.; Shaw, John H.; Dolan, James F.; Christofferson, Shari A.; Williams, Robert A.; Odum, Jack K.; Plesch, Andreas


    High-resolution seismic reflection profiles image discrete folds in the shallow subsurface (Puente Hills blind-thrust fault system, Los Angeles basin, California. The profiles demonstrate late Quaternary activity at the fault tip, precisely locate the axial surfaces of folds within the upper 100 m, and constrain the geometry and kinematics of recent folding. The Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills fault zone shows an upward-narrowing kink band with an active anticlinal axial surface, consistent with fault-bend folding above an active thrust ramp. The Coyote Hills segment shows an active synclinal axial surface that coincides with the base of a 9-m-high scarp, consistent with tip-line folding or the presence of a backthrust. The seismic profiles pinpoint targets for future geologic work to constrain slip rates and ages of past events on this important fault system.

  15. Steep-dip seismic imaging of the shallow San Andreas fault near Parkfield. (United States)

    Hole, J A; Catchings, R D; St Clair, K C; Rymer, M J; Okaya, D A; Carney, B J


    Seismic reflection and refraction images illuminate the San Andreas Fault to a depth of 1 kilometer. The prestack depth-migrated reflection image contains near-vertical reflections aligned with the active fault trace. The fault is vertical in the upper 0.5 kilometer, then dips about 70 degrees to the southwest to at least 1 kilometer subsurface. This dip reconciles the difference between the computed locations of earthquakes and the surface fault trace. The seismic velocity cross section shows strong lateral variations. Relatively low velocity (10 to 30%), high electrical conductivity, and low density indicate a 1-kilometer-wide vertical wedge of porous sediment or fractured rock immediately southwest of the active fault trace.

  16. Magnetic enhancement and softening of fault gouges during seismic slip: Laboratory observation and implications (United States)

    Yang, T.; Chen, J.; Dekkers, M. J.


    Anomalous rock magnetic properties have been reported in slip zones of many previous earthquakes (e.g., the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan; the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan, and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China). However, it is unclear whether short-duration frictional heating can actually induce such rock magnetic anomalies in fault zones; identification of this process in natural fault zones is not that straightforward. A promising approach to solve this problem is to conduct high-velocity friction (HVF) experiments that reproduce seismic fault movements and frictional heating in a simulated fault zone. Afterwards natural fault zones can be analyzed with renewed insight. Our HVF experiments on fault gouges that are simulating large amounts of earthquake slip, show significant magnetic enhancement and softening of sheared gouges. Mineral magnetic measurements reveal that magnetite was formed due to thermal decomposition of smectite during the HVF experiment on the paramagnetic fault gouge. Also, goethite was transformed to intermediate magnetite during the HVF experiment on the goethite-bearing fault gouge. Magnetic susceptibility, saturation remanence and saturation magnetization of sheared samples are linearly increasing with and strongly depend on the temperature rise induced by frictional heating; in contrast, coecivities are decreasing with increasing temperature. Thus, frictional heating can induce thermal decomposition/transformation during short-duration, high-velocity seismic slip, leading to magnetic enhancement and softening of a slip zone. Mineral magnetic methods are suited for diagnosing earthquake slip and estimating the temperature rise of co-seismic frictional heating.

  17. Recent high-resolution seismic reflection studies of active faults in the Puget Lowland (United States)

    Liberty, L. M.; Pratt, T. L.


    In the past four years, new high-resolution seismic surveys have filled in key gaps in our understanding of active structures beneath the Puget Lowland, western Washington State. Although extensive regional and high-resolution marine seismic surveys have been fundamental to understanding the tectonic framework of the area, these marine profiles lack coverage on land and in shallow or restricted waterways. The recent high-resolution seismic surveys have targeted key structures beneath water bodies that large ships cannot navigate, and beneath city streets underlain by late Pleistocene glacial deposits that are missing from the waterways. The surveys can therefore bridge the gap between paleoseismic and marine geophysical studies, and test key elements of models proposed by regional-scale geophysical studies. Results from these surveys have: 1) documented several meters of vertical displacement on at least two separate faults in the Olympia area; 2) clarified the relationship between the Catfish Lake scarp and the underlying kink band in the Tacoma fault zone; 3) provided a first look at the structures beneath the north portion of the western Tacoma fault zone, north of previous marine profiles; 4) documented that deformation along the Seattle fault extends well east of Lake Sammamish; 5) imaged the Seattle fault beneath the Vasa Park trench; and 6) documented multiple fault strands in and south of the Seattle fault zone south of Bellevue. The results better constrain interpretations of paleoseismic investigations of past earthquakes on these faults, and provide targets for future paleoseismic studies.

  18. Groundwater penetrating radar and high resolution seismic for locating shallow faults in unconsolidated sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyatt, D.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)]|[South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States). Earth Sciences and Resources Inst.; Waddell, M.G. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States). Earth Sciences and Resources Inst.; Sexton, B.G. [Microseeps Ltd., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)


    Faults in shallow, unconsolidated sediments, particularly in coastal plain settings, are very difficult to discern during subsurface exploration yet have critical impact to groundwater flow, contaminant transport and geotechnical evaluations. This paper presents a case study using cross-over geophysical technologies in an area where shallow faulting is probable and known contamination exists. A comparison is made between Wenner and dipole-dipole resistivity data, ground penetrating radar, and high resolution seismic data. Data from these methods were verified with a cone penetrometer investigation for subsurface lithology and compared to existing monitoring well data. Interpretations from these techniques are compared with actual and theoretical shallow faulting found in the literature. The results of this study suggests that (1) the CPT study, combined with the monitoring well data may suggest that discontinuities in correlatable zones may indicate that faulting is present (2) the addition of the Wenner and dipole-dipole data may further suggest that offset zones exist in the shallow subsurface but not allow specific fault planes or fault stranding to be mapped (3) the high resolution seismic data will image faults to within a few feet of the surface but does not have the resolution to identify the faulting on the scale of our models, however it will suggest locations for upward continuation of faulted zones (4) offset 100 MHz and 200 MHz CMP GPR will image zones and features that may be fault planes and strands similar to our models (5) 300 MHz GPR will image higher resolution features that may suggest the presence of deeper faults and strands, and (6) the combination of all of the tools in this study, particularly the GPR and seismic may allow for the mapping of small scale, shallow faulting in unconsolidated sediments.

  19. High Resolution Seismic Imaging of the Trench Canyon Fault Zone, Mono Lake, Northeastern California (United States)

    Novick, M. W.; Jayko, A. S.; Roeske, S.; McClain, J. S.; Hart, P. E.; Boyle, M.


    High resolution seismic imaging of Mono Lake, located in northeastern California, has revealed an approximately northwest striking fault in the area to the west of aerially exposed Negit Volcano. This fault, henceforth referred to as the Trench Canyon Fault (TCF), has also been mapped onshore along a correlating strike as far north as Cedar Hill Volcano, located to the northeast of the lake on the California/Nevada border. Onshore, the TCF was mapped for approximately 10 kilometers using air photos, DEM images, and standard geologic pace and compass mapping techniques. The TCF post- dates the last glacial maximum, evidenced by the cutting of wave cut benches along Cedar Hill Volcano. Relict, non-historic shorelines, left by the steady evaporation of Mono Lake beginning approximately 13k, are also repeatedly cut by the fault. Additional evidence of fault presence includes sag ponds, pressure ridges, tectonically fractured rocks, and normal fault scarps found along strike. Offshore, DEM images show a northeast striking structure to the northwest of Negit Volcano, which is co-linear with the onshore TCF. High resolution seismic imaging of the structure, using an applied acoustic/SIG mini-sparker system, reveals steeply dipping Holocene sediments, as well as volcanic deposits from active vents which have erupted in the last 1000 years, offset by the fault. Detailed structural analysis of the previously unstudied Trench Canyon Fault (TFC) and faults in the Cedar Hill region of northern California, along with seismic studies of sediments beneath Mono Lake not only allow for a better comprehension of this minor fault system, but provide greater understanding of the larger and more complex Walker Lane Shear Zone. Fault analyses, combined and correlated with those from CHV, give a better understanding of how slip is transferred into the complicated Mina defection to the east, from the dextral and normal faults along the Sierra Nevada Range front.

  20. Groundwater penetrating radar and high resolution seismic for locating shallow faults in unconsolidated sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyatt, D.E.


    Faults in shallow, unconsolidated sediments, particularly in coastal plain settings, are very difficult to discern during subsurface exploration yet have critical impact to groundwater flow, contaminant transport and geotechnical evaluations. This paper presents a case study using cross-over geophysical technologies in an area where shallow faulting is probable and known contamination exists. A comparison is made between Wenner and dipole-dipole resistivity data, ground penetrating radar, and high resolution seismic data. Data from these methods were verified with a cone penetrometer investigation for subsurface lithology and compared to existing monitoring well data. Interpretations from these techniques are compared with actual and theoretical shallow faulting found in the literature. The results of this study suggests that (1) the CPT study, combined with the monitoring well data may suggest that discontinuities in correlatable zones may indicate that faulting is present (2) the addition of the Wenner and dipole-dipole data may further suggest that offset zones exist in the shallow subsurface but not allow specific fault planes or fault stranding to be mapped (3) the high resolution seismic data will image faults to within a few feet of the surface but does not have the resolution to identify the faulting on the scale of our models, however it will suggest locations for upward continuation of faulted zones (4) offset 100 MHz and 200 MHz CMP GPR will image zones and features that may be fault planes and strands similar to our models (5) 300 MHz GPR will image higher resolution features that may suggest the presence of deeper faults and strands, and (6) the combination of all of the tools in this study, particularly the GPR and seismic may allow for the mapping of small scale, shallow faulting in unconsolidated sediments

  1. TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunscombe, P.


    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  2. TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunscombe, P. [University of Calgary (Canada)


    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  3. Diagnosis of Constant Faults in Read-Once Contact Networks over Finite Bases using Decision Trees

    KAUST Repository

    Busbait, Monther I.


    We study the depth of decision trees for diagnosis of constant faults in read-once contact networks over finite bases. This includes diagnosis of 0-1 faults, 0 faults and 1 faults. For any finite basis, we prove a linear upper bound on the minimum depth of decision tree for diagnosis of constant faults depending on the number of edges in a contact network over that basis. Also, we obtain asymptotic bounds on the depth of decision trees for diagnosis of each type of constant faults depending on the number of edges in contact networks in the worst case per basis. We study the set of indecomposable contact networks with up to 10 edges and obtain sharp coefficients for the linear upper bound for diagnosis of constant faults in contact networks over bases of these indecomposable contact networks. We use a set of algorithms, including one that we create, to obtain the sharp coefficients.

  4. Fault tree synthesis for software design analysis of PLC based safety-critical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, S. R.; Cho, C. H. [Corporate R and D Inst., Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction Co., Ltd., 39-3, Seongbok-Dong, Yongin-Si, Gyeonggi-Do 449-795 (Korea, Republic of); Seong, P. H. [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology, 373-3 Guseong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)


    As a software verification and validation should be performed for the development of PLC based safety-critical systems, a software safety analysis is also considered in line with entire software life cycle. In this paper, we propose a technique of software safety analysis in the design phase. Among various software hazard analysis techniques, fault tree analysis is most widely used for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant systems. Fault tree analysis also has the most intuitive notation and makes both qualitative and quantitative analyses possible. To analyze the design phase more effectively, we propose a technique of fault tree synthesis, along with a universal fault tree template for the architecture modules of nuclear software. Consequently, we can analyze the safety of software on the basis of fault tree synthesis. (authors)

  5. FTREX Testing Report (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) Version 1.5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Woo Sik


    In order to verify FTREX functions and to confirm the correctness of FTREX 1.5, various tests were performed 1.fault trees with negates 2.fault trees with house events 3.fault trees with multiple tops 4.fault trees with logical loops 5.fault trees with initiators, house events, negates, logical loops, and flag events By using the automated cutest propagation test, the FTREX 1.5 functions are verified. FTREX version 1.3 and later versions have capability to perform bottom-up cutset-propagation test in order check cutest status. FTREX 1.5 always generates the proper minimal cut sets. All the output cutsets of the tested problems are MCSs (Minimal Cut Sets) and have no non-minimal cutsets and improper cutsets. The improper cutsets are those that have no effect to top, have multiple initiators, or have disjoint events A * -A

  6. Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qiang; Yang Ming


    Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)

  7. A look inside the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield through vertical seismic profiling. (United States)

    Chavarria, J Andres; Malin, Peter; Catchings, Rufus D; Shalev, Eylon


    The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole is located on the southwestern side of the Parkfield San Andreas fault. This observatory includes a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) array. VSP seismograms from nearby microearthquakes contain signals between the P and S waves. These signals may be P and S waves scattered by the local geologic structure. The collected scattering points form planar surfaces that we interpret as the San Andreas fault and four other secondary faults. The scattering process includes conversions between P and S waves, the strengths of which suggest large contrasts in material properties, possibly indicating the presence of cracks or fluids.

  8. How seismicity impacts the evolution and branching of strike-slip faults (United States)

    Preuss, S.; van Dinther, Y.; Ampuero, J. P.; Herrendoerfer, R.; Gerya, T.


    Strike-slip fault systems are capable of producing large earthquakes on both their main fault and on secondary and potentially unknown faults. A recent example is the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake that resulted in surface ruptures along at least 12 major crustal faults. Strike-slip faults are surrounded by inelastic off-fault deformation zones whose displacement accounts for up to 60% of the total displacement. Secondary faults in California accommodate up to 43% of the total fault slip rate of mapped faults taken from the SCEC catalog, while unknown faults arguably accommodate up to 30% of the long-term strain. To better understand these complexities and the long-term evolution of branching fault structures, we quantify the parameters influencing branching structure with a particular focus on the role of seismicity. We incorporate the relevant dynamics of both long-term fault evolution and short-term seismogenesis using the continuum visco-elasto-plastic tools of Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical (STM) modeling approach (van Dinther et al., 2013, Herrendörfer et al., in prep). Long-term fault evolution is governed by Drucker-Prager plasticity and plastic strain weakening of cohesion, while frictional weakening and rapid slip is governed by either strongly rate-dependent (RDF) or rate-and-state friction (RSF). We use a 2D, plane view, natural scale model setup (1200 km x 1000 km), which contains the end of a dextral mature strike-slip fault on one side. Episodic slip events on this pre-existing fault patch propagate into the undamaged host rock. As faults grow they develop a fan-like plastic strain envelope, whose width keeps growing with fault length and accumulated on-fault slip. We interpret this zone as a splay-fault network, which is typically seen ahead of propagating fault tips. We analyze the evolving faults in terms of dissipated strain energy GC, accumulated slip D and fault length L. Results show that a single event is capable of producing a several hundreds

  9. Anatomy of a Complex Fault Zone: Land Seismic Reflection Imaging of the Tacoma Fault Zone, Washington State (United States)

    Pape, K.; Liberty, L. M.; Pratt, T. L.


    Preliminary interpretations of new land-based seismic reflection images across the Tacoma fault zone in western Washington State document a complex pattern of faulting and folding. The Tacoma fault zone bounds gravity and aeromagnetic anomalies for 50 km across the central Puget Lowland west of the city of Tacoma, and tomography data suggest there is as much as 6 km of post-Eocene uplift of the hanging wall relative to Tacoma basin sediments to the south. We acquired four north-south seismic reflection profiles to define the character and tectonic history of the Tacoma fault zone. The 6-km long Powerline Road profile, located west of Case Inlet, perpendicularly crosses the 4-km-long Catfish Lake scarp discerned from Lidar data and trenching. The profile shows flat-lying strata on the south, but the north part of the profile is dominated by south-dipping Tertiary and older strata that appear to form the limb of an anticline. There appears to be at least one, and likely two faults in the Tertiary and older strata, although it is not clear these faults penetrate the shallowest Pleistocene strata. The 8.5-km long Carney Lake profile is located east of Case Inlet and spans two scarps imaged on Lidar data. This profile shows a similar geometry to the Powerline Road profile, folded and faulted Tertiary and older strata adjacent to flat-lying marine sediments of the Tacoma Basin. The 9-km long Bethel-Burley profile across the east portion of the Tacoma fault near Gig Harbor shows a significantly different reflector geometry than the profiles to the west. The Bethel-Burley profile is dominated by a strong, south-dipping reflection that becomes a prominent arch near the north end of the section. The strength of the reflector suggests that it marks the top of the Eocene basement rocks. South-dipping strata on this profile match those imaged on marine profiles from Carr Inlet. The new seismic reflection data support an interpretation in which the north edge of the Tacoma basin

  10. Effect of Injection Site on Fault Activation and Seismicity during Hydraulic Fracturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaohui Chong


    Full Text Available Hydraulic fracturing is a key technology to stimulate oil and gas wells to increase production in shale reservoirs with low permeability. Generally, the stimulated reservoir volume is performed based on pre-existing natural fractures (NF. Hydraulic fracturing in shale reservoirs with large natural fractures (i.e., faults often results in fault activation and seismicity. In this paper, a coupled hydro-mechanical model was employed to investigate the effects of injection site on fault activation and seismicity. A moment tensor method was used to evaluate the magnitude and affected areas of seismic events. The micro-parameters of the proposed model were calibrated through analytical solutions of the interaction between hydraulic fractures (HF and the fault. The results indicated that the slip displacement and activation range of the fault first decreased, then remained stable with the increase in the distance between the injection hole and the fault (Lif. In the scenario of the shortest Lif (Lif = 10 m, the b-value—which represents the proportion of frequency of small events in comparison with large events—reached its maximum value, and the magnitude of concentrated seismic events were in the range of −3.5 to −1.5. The frequency of seismic events containing only one crack was the lowest, and that of seismic events containing more than ten cracks was the highest. The interaction between the injection-induced stress disturbance and fault slip was gentle when Lif was longer than the critical distance (Lif = 40–50 m. The results may help optimize the fracturing treatment designs during hydraulic fracturing.

  11. Fault structure, stress, or pressure control of the seismicity in shale? Insights from a controlled experiment of fluid-induced fault reactivation (United States)

    De Barros, Louis; Daniel, Guillaume; Guglielmi, Yves; Rivet, Diane; Caron, Hervé; Payre, Xavier; Bergery, Guillaume; Henry, Pierre; Castilla, Raymi; Dick, Pierre; Barbieri, Ernesto; Gourlay, Maxime


    Clay formations are present in reservoirs and earthquake faults, but questions remain on their mechanical behavior, as they can vary from ductile (aseismic) to brittle (seismic). An experiment, at a scale of 10 m, aims to reactivate a natural fault by fluid pressure in shale materials. The injection area was surrounded by a dense monitoring network comprising pressure, deformation, and seismicity sensors, in a well-characterized geological setting. Thirty-two microseismic events were recorded during several injection phases in five different locations within the fault zone. Their computed magnitude ranged between -4.3 and -3.7. Their spatiotemporal distribution, compared with the measured displacement at the injection points, shows that most of the deformation induced by the injection is aseismic. Whether the seismicity is controlled by the fault architecture, mineralogy of fracture filling, fluid, and/or stress state is then discussed. The fault damage zone architecture and mineralogy are of crucial importance, as seismic slip mainly localizes on the sealed-with-calcite fractures which predominate in the fault damage zone. As no seismicity is observed in the close vicinity of the injection areas, the presence of fluid seems to prevent seismic slips. The fault core acts as an impermeable hydraulic barrier that favors fluid confinement and pressurization. Therefore, the seismic behavior seems to be strongly sensitive to the structural heterogeneity (including permeability) of the fault zone, which leads to a heterogeneous stress response to the pressurized volume.

  12. Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed along the 1976 Tangshan fault, north China (United States)

    Li, Le; Chen, Qi-Fu; Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin


    Spatial and temporal features of the seismicity occurring along the Tangshan fault in 2001-2006 were investigated with data recorded by the Beijing metropolitan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity with the double difference method clearly exhibits a dextral bend in the middle of the fault. More than 85% of the earthquakes were found in the two clusters forming the northern segment where relatively small coseismic slips were observed during the 1976 M7.8 earthquake. The b values calculated from the seismicity occurring in the northern and southern segment are 1.03 +/- 0.02 and 0.85 +/- 0.03, respectively. The distinct seismicity and b values are probably the collective effect of the fault geometry and the regional stress field that has an ENE-WSW oriented compression. Using cross-correlation and fine relocation analyses, we also identified a total of 21 doublets and 25 multiplets that make up >50% of the total seismicity. Most of the sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Based on a quasi-periodic sequence, we obtained a fault slip rate of <=2.6 mm/yr at ~15 km, which is consistent with surface GPS measurements.

  13. Discriminating between natural versus induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults. (United States)

    Magnani, Maria Beatrice; Blanpied, Michael L; DeShon, Heather R; Hornbach, Matthew J


    To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009, earthquake activity in the CUS has increased markedly, and numerous publications suggest that this increase is primarily due to induced earthquakes caused by deep-well injection of wastewater, both flowback water from hydrofracturing operations and produced water accompanying hydrocarbon production. Alternatively, some argue that these earthquakes are natural and that the seismicity increase is a normal variation that occurs over millions of years. Our analysis shows that within the NME, faults deform both Quaternary alluvium and underlying sediments dating from Paleozoic through Tertiary, with displacement increasing with geologic unit age, documenting a long history of natural activity. In the FWB, a region of ongoing wastewater injection, basement faults show deformation of the Proterozoic and Paleozoic units, but little or no deformation of younger strata. Specifically, vertical displacements in the post-Pennsylvanian formations, if any, are below the resolution (~15 m) of the seismic data, far less than expected had these faults accumulated deformation over millions of years. Our results support the assertion that recent FWB earthquakes are of induced origin; this conclusion is entirely independent of analyses correlating seismicity and wastewater injection practices. To our knowledge, this is the first study to discriminate natural and induced seismicity using classical structural geology analysis techniques.

  14. Seismic Hazard Analysis in EL Paso/juarez Area from Study of Young Fault Scarps (United States)

    ashenfelter, K. R.


    The El Paso-Juarez metropolitan area contains a known record of active faulting, but also has one of the most poorly known paleoseismic records. The scarcity of data means that nearly 2 million people are exposed to a seismic hazard with little known on the actual risk. Active faults are known along the eastern side of the Franklin Mountains as well as young ruptures within the Hueco Bolson in East El Paso, yet the only fault with paleoseismic studies is the East Franklin's fault. Recent population increases in the El Paso region have led to a construction boom in east El Paso, and many of these construction sites cross known Quaternary fault ruptures. This research project contains two potential components: 1) An exploratory component: students can use existing fault maps and high resolution aerial photography to seek out sites where active construction sites might be unearthing exposures of young fault ruptures. The study is exploratory, and involves carefully mapping using field GIS systems to document areas for potential study, map possible faults, etc. 2) An active fault study in an urbanized environment: The east Franklins fault is a known active fault. The scarp is exposed near trans-mountain road, and along some side streets in NE El Paso. Potential studies include careful mapping of fault scarp topographic profiles, and mapping surface traces.

  15. Experience in PSA fault tree modularization at the ASCO NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nos Llorens, V.; Frances Urmeneta, M.; Fraig Sureda, J.


    Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is a basic tool in decision-making for the optimization of back fittings, procedures and maintenance practices. ASCO NPP PSA was developed with a high level of detail in the models. This required considerable computer resources (long running time) to carry out the quantification. The quantification time had therefore to be flexible to allow continuous evaluation of the impact on the estimation and reduction of risk in the plant, and also to facilitate post-PSA applications. The most suitable way of achieving this flexibility was by compacting and reducing the detailed fault trees of the project by means of a modularization process. The purpose of the paper is to present the practical experience acquired with modularization carried out in the UTE UNITEC-INYPSA-EMPRESARIOS AGRUPADOS framework and the method applied, the support computer programs devised and their degree of effectiveness. (Author)

  16. Enterprise architecture availability analysis using fault trees and stakeholder interviews (United States)

    Närman, Per; Franke, Ulrik; König, Johan; Buschle, Markus; Ekstedt, Mathias


    The availability of enterprise information systems is a key concern for many organisations. This article describes a method for availability analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis and constructs from the ArchiMate enterprise architecture (EA) language. To test the quality of the method, several case-studies within the banking and electrical utility industries were performed. Input data were collected through stakeholder interviews. The results from the case studies were compared with availability of log data to determine the accuracy of the method's predictions. In the five cases where accurate log data were available, the yearly downtime estimates were within eight hours from the actual downtimes. The cost of performing the analysis was low; no case study required more than 20 man-hours of work, making the method ideal for practitioners with an interest in obtaining rapid availability estimates of their enterprise information systems.

  17. Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.


    The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

  18. Faults characteristics and evolution history based on seismic data in Hangjinqi area Ordos basin (United States)

    Zhao, Guiping


    Hangjinqi area structurally located in Yimeng uplift in the northern Ordos basin, is one of the major area of natural gas exploration. Nearly one hundred faults with different size, different properties and different strikes were developed in Hangjinqi area, of which Boerjianghaizi Fault, Wulanjilinmiao Fault and Sanyanjing Fault were in larger scale, regarded as the main faults. Boerjianghaizi Fault is a reverse fault dipping north, the displacement of fault in the plane gradually becoming smaller from bottom to top. Seismic section interpretation results show the following features: Boerjianghaizi Fault dipping north, cutting all the layers below T3 horizon; fault plane is steep in upper part and gentle in lower part. The line 639.5 statistical results display that the dip of the lower part is small, the dip angle of Shihezi Formation and below is about 35°, the fault plane above Shihezi Formation is steep, about 65°. Seismic sections display that Wulanjilinmiao Fault dislocated all horizons from T3 to T9, and this fault plane showed steep dip of more than 80 ° with little change in sedimentary succession. The displacement of fault is small, the largest displacement occurred in Zhidan Group with the displacement of 55m at bottom. Its salient features are that different layers show different fault properties, there are both normal fault and reverse fault, reflecting this region has experienced many times of stress field changes and multiple phase of fault activities. Seismic profile interpretation results reveal that the Sanyanjing Fault broke the T3 horizons and below, The dip of lower part of this fault is about 39°, up to the Sanxi Formation-lower Shihezi Formation, the dip becomes to 62°, and up again to upper Shihezi-Quaternary strata, the dip increases to 78°. In general, Sanyanjing Fault is characterized by smaller displacement in lower and larger displacement in upper. The statistical results of fault displacement in Line523 show that the lower part

  19. Using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to capture ancient seismic offsets along the Altyn Tagh fault (United States)

    Gao, M.; Xu, X.; Tapponnier, P.; van der Woerd, J.; Klinger, Y.; Derrien, A.; Bradley, K. E.


    High resolution topographic data is a key ingredient to assess the amplitude of seismic displacements along strike-slip fault. For faults that slip during earthquakes with centennial to millennial recurrence time, erosion smoothes out the sharpness of both geomorphic markers and surface breaks. Co-registred, high resolution digital elevation models and ground images are thus necessary to reconstruct past displacements and deformations along faults. The recent explosion in centimeter resolution topographic data obtained by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) raises the possibility of mapping geomorphic offsets of active faults with unprecedented accuracy. Here we tested the technique to obtain high-resolution images and generate topographic data along the Altyn Tagh fault, main active strike-slip fault along the northern edge of Tibet. The existence of spectacular scarps, combined with the low level of instrumental seismicity and lack of well documented historical events requires especialy detailed studies of surface faulting. At several sites along the Altun segment of the fault we reconstruct well preserved offsets based on both 2D-orthophotos and 3D-views of the landscape. The results show that the UAV data provides centimeter resolution, allowing accurate mapping of past ruptures. We determine a co-seismic offset of 5.6 m for the last event south of Annanba. We also reconstruct cumulative offsets of 11±0.5 m, 22±1 m and 32±2 m. The horizontal offsets obtained suggest that last and penultimate events had similar slip amounts locally. The larger slip values deduced from the other offsets may also result from repeated 5-5.5 m co-seismic slip but more data is needed to confirm such a characteristic slip behavior. Clearly, UAV-based imagery shows great potential for high-resolution seismotectonic research and seismic hazard assessment.

  20. Seismicity within the Irpinia Fault System As Monitored By Isnet (Irpinia Seismic Network) and Its Possible Relation with Fluid Storage (United States)

    Festa, G.; Zollo, A.; Amoroso, O.; Ascione, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Mazzoli, S.; Orefice, A.; Russo, G.


    ISNet ( is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, M 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. ISNet consists of 32 seismic stations equipped with both strong motion and velocimetric instruments (either broadband or short-period), with the aim of capture a broad set of seismic signals, from ambient noise to strong motion. Real time and near real time procedures run at ISNet with the goal of monitoring the seismicity, check possible space-time anomalies, detect seismic sequences and launch an earthquake early warning in the case of potential significant ground shaking in the area. To understand the role of fluids on the seismicity of the area, we investigated velocity and attenuation models. The former is built from accurate cross-correlation picking and S wave detection based onto polarization analysis. Joint inversion of both P and S arrival times is then based on a linearized multi-scale tomographic approach. Attenuation is instead obtained from inversion of displacement spectra, deconvolving for the source effect. High VP/VS and QS/QP >1 were found within a ~15 km wide rock volume where intense microseismicity is located. This indicates that concentration of seismicity is possibly controlled by high pore fluid pressure. This earthquake reservoir may come from a positive feedback between the seismic pumping that controls the fluid transmission through the fractured damage zone and the low permeability of cross fault barrier, increasing the fluid pore pressure within the fault bounded block. In this picture, sequences mostly occur at the base of this fluid rich layer. They show an anomalous pattern in the earthquake occurrence per magnitude classes; main events evolve with a complex source kinematics, as obtained from backprojection of apparent source time functions, indicating possible directivity effects. In this area sequences might be the key for understanding the transition between the deep

  1. Preliminary study of the effects of fault properties and mining geometry on the stiffness of the loading system in fault slip seismic events as a basis for identifying situations prone to seismic activity.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Esterhuizen, GS


    Full Text Available The mechanism of most seismic events is shear displacement along geological faults. Seismicity occurs if the slip takes place violently and kinetic energy is released into the surrounding rock. The rock surrounding the fault plane may be seen...

  2. Automated fault extraction and classification using 3-D seismic data for the Ekofisk field development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Signer, C.; Nickel, M.; Randen, T.; Saeter, T.; Soenneland, H.H.


    Mapping of fractures is important for the prediction of fluid flow in many reservoir types. The fluid flow depends mainly on the efficiency of the reservoir seals. Improved spatial mapping of the open and closed fracture systems will allow a better prediction of the fluid flow pattern. The primary objectives of this paper is to present fracture characterization at the reservoir scale combined with seismic facies mapping. The complexity of the giant Ekofisk field on the Norwegian continental shelf provides an ideal framework for testing the validity and the applicability of an automated seismic fault and fracture detection and mapping tool. The mapping of the faults can be based on seismic attribute grids, which means that attribute-responses related to faults are extracted along key horizons which were interpreted in the reservoir interval. 3 refs., 3 figs.

  3. Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT) for Aquaculture. (United States)

    Chen, Yingyi; Zhen, Zhumi; Yu, Huihui; Xu, Jing


    In the Internet of Things (IoT) equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT.

  4. Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT for Aquaculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyi Chen


    Full Text Available In the Internet of Things (IoT equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT.

  5. Advanced Seismic Imaging Techniques Characterize the Alpine Fault at Whataroa (New Zealand) (United States)

    Lay, V.; Buske, S.; Lukács, A.; Gorman, A. R.; Bannister, S. C.


    The plate-bounding Alpine Fault in New Zealand is a large transpressive continental fault zone that is late in its earthquake cycle. The Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) aims to deliver insight into the geological structure of this fault zone and its evolution by drilling and sampling the Alpine Fault at depth. We have acquired and processed reflection seismic data to image the subsurface around the drill site. The resulting velocity models and seismic images of the upper 5 km show complex subsurface structures around the Alpine Fault zone. The most prominent feature is a strong reflector at depths of 1.2-2.2 km with a dip of ~40° to the southeast below the DFDP-2 borehole, which we assume to be the main trace of the Alpine Fault. The reflector exhibits varying lateral reflectivity along its extent. Additionally, subparallel reflectors are imaged that we interpret as secondary branches of the main fault zone. The derived P-wave velocity models reveal a 400-600 m thick sedimentary layer with velocities of ~2.3 km/s above a schist basement with velocities of 4.5-5.5 km/s. A pronounced low-velocity layer with velocities of approximately 3.5 km/s can be observed within the basement at 0.8-2 km depth. Small-scale low-velocity anomalies appear at the top of the basement and can be correlated to the fault zone. The results provide a reliable basis for a seismic site characterization at the DFDP-2 drill site that can be used for further structural and geological investigations of the architecture of the Alpine Fault in this area.

  6. Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece (United States)

    Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.


    Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

  7. Treatment of complementary events in constructing the linked Level 1 and Level 2 fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young G.; Ahn, Kwang-Il


    Complementary events in the event trees for a PRA model should be treated properly in order to evaluate plant risk correctly. In this paper, the characteristics of the following three different cutset generation methods were investigated first in order to find the best practical way for treating complementary events: (1) exact method which treats complementary events logically, (2) no-delete term method which does not treat complementary events at all, and (3) delete term method which treats complementary events by deleting nonsense cutsets which are generated as a result of ignoring complementary events. Then, practical methods for treating complementary events in constructing linked fault trees for Level 1 and Level 2 PRA were suggested and demonstrated. The suggested methods deal with the following selected four typical cases: (1) Case 1-an event tree event (E) is represented by a fault tree gate whose inputs consist of only fault tree gates, (2) Case 2-E is represented by a single basic event, (3) Case 3-E is represented by an OR fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs, and (4) Case 4-E is represented by an AND fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs. In the suggested methods, first the high level logic structures of event tree events are examined and restructured, if needed. Then, the delete term method, the exact method, and the combination of the two methods are applied to through Case 1 to Case 4, respectively. As a result, it is recommended to treat complementary events, using the suggested methods, before Level 1 and Level 2 PRA fault trees are coupled

  8. Seismic investigation of the Kunlun Fault: Analysis of the INDEPTH IV 2-D active-source seismic dataset (United States)

    Seelig, William George

    The Tibetan Plateau has experienced significant crustal thickening and deformation since the continental subduction and collision of the Asian and Indian plates in the Eocene. Deformation of the northern Tibetan Plateau is largely accommodated by strike-slip faulting. The Kunlun Fault is a 1000-km long strike-slip fault near the northern boundary of the Plateau that has experienced five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes in the past 100 years and represents a major rheological boundary. Active-source, 2-D seismic reflection/refraction data, collected as part of project INDEPTH IV (International Deep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalaya, phase IV) in 2007, was used to examine the structure and the dip of the Kunlun fault. The INDEPTH IV data was acquired to better understand the tectonic evolution of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, such as the far-field deformation associated with the continent-continent collision and the potential subduction of the Asian continent beneath northern Tibet. Seismic reflection common depth point (CDP) stacks were examined to look for reflectivity patterns that may be associated with faulting. A possible reflection from the buried North Kunlun Thrust (NKT) is identified at 18-21 km underneath the East Kunlun Mountains, with an estimated apparent dip of 15°S and thrusting to the north. Minimally-processed shot gathers were also inspected for reflections off near-vertical structures such as faults and information on first-order velocity structure. Shot offset and nearest receiver number to reflection was catalogued to increase confidence of picks. Reflections off the North Kunlun (NKF) and South Kunlun Faults (SKF) were identified and analyzed for apparent dip and subsurface geometry. Fault reflection analysis found that the North Kunlun Fault had an apparent dip of approximately 68ºS to an estimated depth of 5 km, while the South Kunlun Fault dipped at approximately 78ºN to an estimated 3.5 km depth. Constraints on apparent dip and

  9. Seismic trapped modes in the oroville and san andreas fault zones. (United States)

    Li, Y G; Leary, P; Aki, K; Malin, P


    Three-component borehole seismic profiling of the recently active Oroville, California, normal fault and microearthquake event recording with a near-fault three-component borehole seismometer on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, have shown numerous instances of pronounced dispersive wave trains following the shear wave arrivals. These wave trains are interpreted as fault zone-trapped seismic modes. Parkfield earthquakes exciting trapped modes have been located as deep as 10 kilometers, as shallow as 4 kilometers, and extend 12 kilometers along the fault on either side of the recording station. Selected Oroville and Parkfield wave forms are modeled as the fundamental and first higher trapped SH modes of a narrow low-velocity layer at the fault. Modeling results suggest that the Oroville fault zone is 18 meters wide at depth and has a shear wave velocity of 1 kilometer per second, whereas at Parkfield, the fault gouge is 100 to 150 meters wide and has a shear wave velocity of 1.1 to 1.8 kilometers per second. These low-velocity layers are probably the rupture planes on which earthquakes occur.

  10. FiSH: put fault data in a seismic hazard basket (United States)

    Pace, Bruno; Visini, Francesco; Peruzza, Laura


    The practice of using fault sources in seismic hazard studies is growing in popularity, including in regions with moderate seismic activity, such as the European countries. In these areas, fault identification may be affected by similarly large uncertainties in the historical and instrumental seismic histories of more active areas that have not been inhabited for long periods of time. Certain studies have effectively applied a time-dependent perspective to combine historical and instrumental seismic data with geological and paleoseismological information, partially compensating for a lack of information. We present a package of Matlab® tools (called FiSH), in publication on Seismological Research Letters, designed to help seismic hazard modellers analyse fault data. These tools enable the derivation of expected earthquake rates given common fault data, and allow you to test the consistency between the magnitude frequency distributions assigned to a fault and some available observations. The basic assumption of FiSH is that the geometric and kinematic features of a fault are the expression of its seismogenic potential. Three tools have been designed to integrate the variable levels of information available: (a) the first tool allows users to convert fault geometry and slip rates into a global budget of the seismic moment released in a given time frame, taking uncertainties into account; (b) the second tool computes the recurrence parameters and associated uncertainties from historical and/or paleoseismological data; 
(c) the third tool outputs time-independent or time-dependent earthquake rates for different magnitude frequency distribution models. We present moreover a test case to illustrate the capabilities of FiSH, on the Paganica normal fault in Central Italy that ruptured during the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake sequence (mainshock Mw 6.3). FiSH is available at, and the source codes are open. We encourage users to handle the scripts

  11. Seismic Evidence for Conjugate Slip and Block Rotation Within the San Andreas Fault System, Southern California (United States)

    Nicholson, Craig; Seeber, Leonardo; Williams, Patrick; Sykes, Lynn R.


    The pattern of seismicity in southern California indicates that much of the activity is presently occurring on secondary structures, several of which are oriented nearly orthogonal to the strikes of the major through-going faults. Slip along these secondary transverse features is predominantly left-lateral and is consistent with the reactivation of conjugate faults by the current regional stress field. Near the intersection of the San Jacinto and San Andreas faults, however, these active left-lateral faults appear to define a set of small crustal blocks, which in conjunction with both normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, suggests contemporary clockwise rotation as a result of regional right-lateral shear. Other left-lateral faults representing additional rotating block systems are identified in adjacent areas from geologic and seismologic data. Many of these structures predate the modern San Andreas system and may control the pattern of strain accumulation in southern California. Geodetic and paleomagnetic evidence confirm that block rotation by strike-slip faulting is nearly ubiquitous, particularly in areas where shear is distributed, and that it accommodates both short-term elastic and long-term nonelastic strain. A rotating block model accounts for a number of structural styles characteristic of strike-slip deformation in California, including: variable slip rates and alternating transtensional and transpressional features observed along strike of major wrench faults; domains of evenly-spaced antithetic faults that terminate against major fault boundaries; continued development of bends in faults with large lateral displacements; anomalous focal mechanisms; and differential uplift in areas otherwise expected to experience extension and subsidence. Since block rotation requires a detachment surface at depth to permit rotational movement, low-angle structures like detachments, of either local or regional extent, may be involved in the contemporary strike

  12. ANCON: A code for the evaluation of complex fault trees in personal computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napoles, J.G.; Salomon, J.; Rivero, J.


    Performing probabilistic safety analysis has been recognized worldwide as one of the more effective ways for further enhancing safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The evaluation of fault trees plays a fundamental role in these analysis. Some existing limitations in RAM and execution speed of personal computers (PC) has restricted so far their use in the analysis of complex fault trees. Starting from new approaches in the data structure and other possibilities the ANCON code can evaluate complex fault trees in a PC, allowing the user to do a more comprehensive analysis of the considered system in reduced computing time

  13. Seismicity rate surge on faults after shut-in: poroelastic response to fluid injection (United States)

    Chang, K. W.; Yoon, H.; Martinez, M. J.


    Subsurface energy activities such as geological CO2 storage and wastewater injection require injecting large amounts of fluid into the subsurface, which will alter the states of pore pressure and stress in the storage formation. One of the main issues for injection-induced seismicity is the post shut-in increases in the seismicity rate, often observed in the fluid-injection operation sites. The rate surge can be driven by the following mechanisms: (1) pore-pressure propagation into distant faults after shut-in and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by well operations, depending on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection history. We simulate the aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike-slip faults, in which injection-induced pressure buildup encounters the faults directly. We examine the poroelastic response of the faults to fluid injection and perform a series of sensitivity tests considering: (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injection point, and (3) well operations with varying the injection rate. Our analysis of the Coulomb stress change suggests that the sealing fault confines pressure diffusion which stabilizes or weakens the nearby conductive fault depending on the injection location. We perform the sensitivity test by changing injection scenarios (time-dependent rates), while keeping the total amount of injected fluids. Sensitivity analysis shows that gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the Coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

  14. Co- and post-seismic shallow fault physics from near-field geodesy, seismic tomography, and mechanical modeling (United States)

    Nevitt, J.; Brooks, B. A.; Catchings, R.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Chan, J. H.; Glennie, C. L.; Ericksen, T. L.; Madugo, C. M.


    The physics governing near-surface fault slip and deformation are largely unknown, introducing significant uncertainty into seismic hazard models. Here we combine near-field measurements of surface deformation from the 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake with high-resolution seismic imaging and finite element models to investigate the effects of rupture speed, elastic heterogeneities, and plasticity on shallow faulting. We focus on two sites that experienced either predominantly co-seismic or post-seismic slip. We measured surface deformation with mobile laser scanning of deformed vine rows within 300 m of the fault at 1 week and 1 month after the event. Shear strain profiles for the co- and post-seismic sites are similar, with maxima of 0.012 and 0.013 and values exceeding 0.002 occurring within 26 m- and 18 m-wide zones, respectively. That the rupture remained buried at the two sites and produced similar deformation fields suggests that permanent deformation due to dynamic stresses did not differ significantly from the quasi-static case, which might be expected if the rupture decelerated as it approached the surface. Active-source seismic surveys, 120 m in length with 1 m geophone/shot spacing, reveal shallow compliant zones of reduced shear modulus. For the co- and post-seismic sites, the tomographic anomaly (Vp/Vs > 5) at 20 m depth has a width of 80 m and 50 m, respectively, much wider than the observed surface displacement fields. We investigate this discrepancy with a suite of finite element models in which a planar fault is buried 5 m below the surface. The model continuum is defined by either homogeneous or heterogeneous elastic properties, with or without Drucker-Prager plastic yielding, with properties derived from lab testing of similar near-surface materials. We find that plastic yielding can greatly narrow the surface displacement zone, but that the width of this zone is largely insensitive to changes in the elastic structure (i.e., the presence of a

  15. Seismicity Pattern and Fault Structure in the Central Himalaya Seismic Gap Using Precise Earthquake Hypocenters and their Source Parameters (United States)

    Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Rai, S. S.


    The devastation brought on by the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal on 25 April 2015, reconditioned people to the high earthquake risk along the Himalayan arc. It is therefore imperative to learn from the Gorkha earthquake, and gain a better understanding of the state of stress in this fault regime, in order to identify areas that could produce the next devastating earthquake. Here, we focus on what is known as the "central Himalaya seismic gap". It is located in Uttarakhand, India, west of Nepal, where a large (> Mw 7.0) earthquake has not occurred for over the past 200 years [Rajendran, C.P., & Rajendran, K., 2005]. This 500 - 800 km long along-strike seismic gap has been poorly studied, mainly due to the lack of modern and dense instrumentation. It is especially concerning since it surrounds densely populated cities, such as New Delhi. In this study, we analyze a rich seismic dataset from a dense network consisting of 50 broadband stations, that operated between 2005 and 2012. We use the STA/LTA filter technique to detect earthquake phases, and the latest tools contributed to the Antelope software environment, to develop a large and robust earthquake catalog containing thousands of precise hypocentral locations, magnitudes, and focal mechanisms. By refining those locations in HypoDD [Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000] to form a tighter cluster of events using relative relocation, we can potentially illustrate fault structures in this region with high resolution. Additionally, using ZMAP [Weimer, S., 2001], we perform a variety of statistical analyses to understand the variability and nature of seismicity occurring in the region. Generating a large and consistent earthquake catalog not only brings to light the physical processes controlling the earthquake cycle in an Himalayan seismogenic zone, it also illustrates how stresses are building up along the décollment and the faults that stem from it. With this new catalog, we aim to reveal fault structure, study

  16. Quaternary layer anomalies around the Carlsberg Fault zone mapped with high-resolution shear-wave seismics south of Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammann, Janina; Hübscher, Christian; Nielsen, Lars

    The Carlsberg Fault zone is located in the N-S striking Höllviken Graben and traverses the city of Copenhagen. The fault zone is a NNW-SSE striking structure in direct vicinity to the transition zone of the Danish Basin and the Baltic Shield. Recent small earthquakes indicate activity in the area......, although none of the mapped earthquakes appear to have occurred on the Carlsberg Fault. We examined the fault evolution by a combination of very high resolution onshore shear-wave seismic data, one conventional onshore seismic profile and marine reflection seismic profiles. The chalk stratigraphy...... and the localization of the fault zone at depth was inferred from previous studies by other authors. We extrapolated the Jurassic and Triassic stratigraphy from the Pomeranian Bay to the area of investigation. The fault zone shows a flower structure in the Triassic as well as in Cretaceous sediments. The faulting...

  17. Characterization and application of microearthquake clusters to problems of scaling, fault zone dynamics, and seismic monitoring at Parkfield, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadeau, Robert Michael [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)


    This document contains information about the characterization and application of microearthquake clusters and fault zone dynamics. Topics discussed include: Seismological studies; fault-zone dynamics; periodic recurrence; scaling of microearthquakes to large earthquakes; implications of fault mechanics and seismic hazards; and wave propagation and temporal changes.

  18. Seismic evidence of conjugate normal faulting: The 1994 Devil Canyon earthquake sequence near Challis, Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, S.M.


    In this study, the term ''conjugate'' refers to faults that occur in two intersecting sets and coordinated kinematically, with each set being distinctive in both orientation and sense of shear (Davis, 1984). Contemporaneous activity along the conjugate faults is defined as occurring within the time frame of the mainshock-aftershock sequence (three weeks for this sequence and generally less than one month in other observed cases). Detailed recordings of microearthquakes from a dense array of temporary analog seismic stations are analyzed. The focal mechanisms and hypocenter spatial and temporal characteristics are combined with geological information to assess the style, geometry, timing, kinematics, and mechanics of conjugate normal faulting. The characteristics of conjugate normal faulting observed in the Devil Canyon sequence are compared to other conjugate normal faulting sequences, and strike-slip and thrust conjugate sequences worldwide

  19. A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Á.; Gómez, J.B.; Vázquez-Prada, M.


    Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual...... fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature....... Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault...

  20. A comparison between fault tree analysis and reliability graph with general gates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun; Jung, Woo Sik


    Currently, level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is performed on the basis of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Kim and Seong developed a new method for system reliability analysis named reliability graph with general gates (RGGG). The RGGG is an extension of conventional reliability graph, and it utilizes the transformation of system structures to equivalent Bayesian networks for quantitative calculation. The RGGG is considered to be intuitive and easy-to-use while as powerful as fault tree analysis. As an example, Kim and Seong already showed that the Bayesian network model for digital plant protection system (DPPS), which is transformed from the RGGG model for DPPS, can be shown in 1 page, while the fault tree model for DPPS consists of 64 pages of fault trees. Kim and Seong also insisted that Bayesian network model for DPPS is more intuitive because the one-to-one matching between each node in the Bayesian network model and an actual component of DPPS is possible. In this paper, we are going to give a comparison between fault tree analysis and the RGGG method with two example systems. The two example systems are the recirculation of in Korean standard nuclear power plants (KSNP) and the fault tree model developed by Rauzy

  1. BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.


    1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

  2. SETS, Boolean Manipulation for Network Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, R.B.


    Description of problem or function - SETS is used for symbolic manipulation of set (or Boolean) equations, particularly the reduction of set equations by the application of set identities. It is a flexible and efficient tool for performing probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), vital area analysis, and common cause analysis. The equation manipulation capabilities of SETS can also be used to analyze non-coherent fault trees and determine prime implicants of Boolean functions, to verify circuit design implementation, to determine minimum cost fire protection requirements for nuclear reactor plants, to obtain solutions to combinatorial optimization problems with Boolean constraints, and to determine the susceptibility of a facility to unauthorized access through nullification of sensors in its protection system. 4. Method of solution - The SETS program is used to read, interpret, and execute the statements of a SETS user program which is an algorithm that specifies the particular manipulations to be performed and the order in which they are to occur. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Any properly formed set equation involving the set operations of union, intersection, and complement is acceptable for processing by the SETS program. Restrictions on the size of a set equation that can be processed are not absolute but rather are related to the number of terms in the disjunctive normal form of the equation, the number of literals in the equation, etc. Nevertheless, set equations involving thousands and even hundreds of thousands of terms can be processed successfully

  3. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour


    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  4. Component-based modeling of systems for automated fault tree generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majdara, Aref; Wakabayashi, Toshio


    One of the challenges in the field of automated fault tree construction is to find an efficient modeling approach that can support modeling of different types of systems without ignoring any necessary details. In this paper, we are going to represent a new system of modeling approach for computer-aided fault tree generation. In this method, every system model is composed of some components and different types of flows propagating through them. Each component has a function table that describes its input-output relations. For the components having different operational states, there is also a state transition table. Each component can communicate with other components in the system only through its inputs and outputs. A trace-back algorithm is proposed that can be applied to the system model to generate the required fault trees. The system modeling approach and the fault tree construction algorithm are applied to a fire sprinkler system and the results are presented

  5. NuFTA: A CASE Tool for Automatic Software Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Sang Hyun; Lee, Dong Ah; Yoo, Jun Beom


    Software fault tree analysis (SFTA) is widely used for analyzing software requiring high-reliability. In SFTA, experts predict failures of system through HA-ZOP (Hazard and Operability study) or FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) and draw software fault trees about the failures. Quality and cost of the software fault tree, therefore, depend on knowledge and experience of the experts. This paper proposes a CASE tool NuFTA in order to assist experts of safety analysis. The NuFTA automatically generate software fault trees from NuSCR formal requirements specification. NuSCR is a formal specification language used for specifying software requirements of KNICS RPS (Reactor Protection System) in Korea. We used the SFTA templates proposed by in order to generate SFTA automatically. The NuFTA also generates logical formulae summarizing the failure's cause, and we have a plan to use the formulae usefully through formal verification techniques

  6. Automatic fault tree construction with RIKKE - a compendium of examples. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.


    This second volume describes the construction of fault trees for systems with loops, including control and safety loops. It also gives a short summary of the event coding scheme used in the FTLIB component model library. (author)

  7. "Handling" seismic hazard: 3D printing of California Faults (United States)

    Kyriakopoulos, C.; Potter, M.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.


    As earth scientists, we face the challenge of how to explain and represent our work and achievements to the general public. Nowadays, this problem is partially alleviated by the use of modern visualization tools such as advanced scientific software (, high resolution monitors, elaborate video simulations, and even 3D Virtual Reality goggles. However, the ability to manipulate and examine a physical object in 3D is still an important tool to connect better with the public. For that reason, we are presenting a scaled 3D printed version of the complex network of earthquake faults active in California based on that used by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) (Field et al., 2013). We start from the fault geometry in the UCERF3.1 deformation model files. These files contain information such as the coordinates of the surface traces of the faults, dip angle, and depth extent. The fault specified in the above files are triangulated at 1km resolution and exported as a facet (.fac) file. The facet file is later imported into the Trelis 15.1 mesh generator ( We use Trelis to perform the following three operations: First, we scale down the model so that 100 mm corresponds to 100km. Second, we "thicken" the walls of the faults; wall thickness of at least 1mm is necessary in 3D printing. We thicken fault geometry by 1mm on each side of the faults for a total of 2mm thickness. Third, we break down the model into parts that will fit the printing bed size ( 25 x 20mm). Finally, each part is exported in stereolithography format (.stl). For our project, we are using the 3D printing facility within the Creat'R Lab in the UC Riverside Orbach Science Library. The 3D printer is a MakerBot Replicator Desktop, 5th Generation. The resolution of print is 0.2mm (Standard quality). The printing material is the MakerBot PLA Filament, 1.75 mm diameter, large Spool, green. The most complex part of the display model requires approximately 17

  8. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment (United States)

    Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher


    Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the

  9. Recent faulting in western Nevada revealed by multi-scale seismic reflection (United States)

    Frary, Roxanna N.; Louie, John N.; Stephenson, William J.; Odum, Jackson K.; Kell, Annie; Eisses, Amy; Kent, Graham M.; Driscoll, Neal W.; Karlin, Robert; Baskin, Robert L.; Pullammanappallil, Satish; Liberty, Lee M.


    The main goal of this study is to compare different reflection methods used to image subsurface structure within different physical environments in western Nevada. With all the methods employed, the primary goal is fault imaging for structural information toward geothermal exploration and seismic hazard estimation. We use seismic CHIRP (a swept-frequency marine acquisition system), weight drop (an accelerated hammer source), and two different vibroseis systems to characterize fault structure. We focused our efforts in the Reno metropolitan area and the area within and surrounding Pyramid Lake in northern Nevada. These different methods have provided valuable constraints on the fault geometry and activity, as well as associated fluid movement. These are critical in evaluating the potential for large earthquakes in these areas, and geothermal exploration possibilities near these structures.

  10. Spontaneous Aseismic and Seismic Slip Transients on Evolving Faults Simulated in a Continuum-Mechanics Framework (United States)

    Herrendoerfer, R.; Gerya, T.; van Dinther, Y.


    The convergent plate motion in subduction zones is accommodated by different slip modes: potentially dangerous seismic slip and imperceptible, but instrumentally detectable slow slip transients or steady slip. Despite an increasing number of observations and insights from laboratory experiments, it remains enigmatic which local on- and off-fault conditions favour slip modes of different source characteristics (i.e., slip velocity, duration, seismic moment). Therefore, we are working towards a numerical model that is able to simulate different slip modes in a consistent way with the long-term evolution of the fault system. We extended our 2D, continuum mechanics-based, visco-elasto-plastic seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) model, which simulated cycles of earthquake-like ruptures, albeit only at plate tectonic slip rates (van Dinther et al, JGR, 2013). To model a wider slip spectrum including seismic slip rates, we, besides improving the general numerical approach, implemented an invariant reformulation of the conventional rate-and state dependent friction (RSF) and an adaptive time-stepping scheme (Lapusta and Rice, JGR, 2001). In a simple setup with predominantly elastic plates that are juxtaposed along a predefined fault of certain width, we vary the characteristic slip distance, the mean normal stress and the size of the rate-weakening zone. We show that the resulting stability transitions from decaying oscillations, periodic slow slip, complex periodic to seismic slip agree with those of conventional RSF seismic cycle simulations (e.g. Liu and Rice, JGR, 2007). Additionally, we will present results of the investigation concerning the effect of the fault width and geometry on the generation of different slip modes. Ultimately, instead of predefining a fault, we simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of a complex fault system that is consistent with the plate motions and rheology. For simplicity, we parametrize the fault development through linear slip-weakening of

  11. Fault zone identification in the eastern part of the Persian Gulf based on combined seismic attributes (United States)

    Mirkamali, M. S.; Keshavarz FK, N.; Bakhtiari, M. R.


    Faults, as main pathways for fluids, play a critical role in creating regions of high porosity and permeability, in cutting cap rock and in the migration of hydrocarbons into the reservoir. Therefore, accurate identification of fault zones is very important in maximizing production from petroleum traps. Image processing and modern visualization techniques are provided for better mapping of objects of interest. In this study, the application of fault mapping in the identification of fault zones within the Mishan and Aghajari formations above the Guri base unconformity surface in the eastern part of Persian Gulf is investigated. Seismic single- and multi-trace attribute analyses are employed separately to determine faults in a vertical section, but different kinds of geological objects cannot be identified using individual attributes only. A mapping model is utilized to improve the identification of the faults, giving more accurate results. This method is based on combinations of all individual relevant attributes using a neural network system to create combined attributes, which gives an optimal view of the object of interest. Firstly, a set of relevant attributes were separately calculated on the vertical section. Then, at interpreted positions, some example training locations were manually selected in each fault and non-fault class by an interpreter. A neural network was trained on combinations of the attributes extracted at the example training locations to generate an optimized fault cube. Finally, the results of the fault and nonfault probability cube were estimated, which the neural network applied to the entire data set. The fault probability cube was obtained with higher mapping accuracy and greater contrast, and with fewer disturbances in comparison with individual attributes. The computed results of this study can support better understanding of the data, providing fault zone mapping with reliable results.

  12. The boolean algebra with restricted variables as a tool for fault tree modularization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.; Wickenhaeuser, A.


    The number of minimal cut sets (m.c.s.) of very complex and highly interconnected fault trees can become extremely large (e.g. more than 10 7 ). In this case the usual analytical approach of dissecting the fault tree TOP variable into m.c.s. is not only computationally prohibitively expensive, but also meaningless because it does not offer any synthetic overview of system behavior. The method proposed in this paper overcomes the deficiencies of the analytical method. It is shown that, by applying boolean algebra with restricted variables (b.a.w.r.v.), the concept of fault tree modularization can be straightforwardly extended from a single gate to a set of gates. Thus, large fault trees are divided into smaller fault trees (modules), which are connected to each other according to a simple scheme. This scheme is represented by a block diagram in which each block is a module. The modules are analyzed separately by the m.c.s. method, and the results are combined according of the TOP event. The method allows the calculation of very large fault trees in a short time and offers a synthetic overview of systems behavior through the block diagram. Numerical examples are also included. Calculations have been carried out by using the computer code MUSTAMO, which is based on the theory developed in this paper. (orig.) [de

  13. Relating seismicity to the velocity structure of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA (United States)

    Lippoldt, Rachel; Porritt, Robert W.; Sammis, Charles G.


    The central section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) displays a range of seismic phenomena including normal earthquakes, low-frequency earthquakes (LFE), repeating microearthquakes (REQ) and aseismic creep. Although many lines of evidence suggest that LFEs are tied to the presence of fluids, their geological setting is still poorly understood. Here, we map the seismic velocity structures associated with LFEs beneath the central SAF using surface wave tomography from ambient seismic noise to provide constraints on the physical conditions that control LFE occurrence. Fault perpendicular sections show that the SAF, as revealed by lateral contrasts in relative velocities, is contiguous to depths of 50 km and appears to be relatively localized at depths between about 15 and 30 km. This is consistent with the hypothesis that LFEs are shear-slip events on a deep extension of the SAF. We find that along strike variations in seismic behaviour correspond to changes in the seismic structure, which support proposed connections between fluids and seismicity. LFEs and REQs occur within low-velocity structures, suggesting that the presence of fluids, weaker minerals, or hydrous phase minerals may play an important role in the generation of slow-slip phenomena.

  14. Complex patterns of faulting revealed by 3D seismic data at the West Galicia rifted margin (United States)

    Reston, Timothy; Cresswell, Derren; Sawyer, Dale; Ranero, Cesar; Shillington, Donna; Morgan, Julia; Lymer, Gael


    The west Galicia margin is characterised by crust thinning to less than 3 km, well-defined fault blocks, which overlie a bright reflection (the S reflector) generally interpreted as a tectonic Moho. The margin exhibits neither voluminous magmatism nor thick sediment piles to obscure the structures and the amount of extension. As such is represents an ideal location to study the process of continental breakup both through seismic imaging and potentially through drilling. Prestack depth migration of existing 2D profiles has strongly supported the interpretation of the S reflector as both a detachment and as the crust-mantle boundary; wide-angle seismic has also shown that the mantle beneath S is serpentinised. Despite the quality of the existing 2D seismic images, a number of competing models have been advanced to explain the formation of this margin, including sequential faulting, polyphase faulting, multiple detachments and the gravitational collapse of the margin over exhumed mantle. As these models, all developed for the Galicia margin, have been subsequently applied to other margins, distinguishing between them has implications not only for the structure of the Galicia margin but for the process of rifting through to breakup more generally. To address these issues in summer of 2013 we collected a 3D combined seismic reflection and wide-angle dataset over this margin. Here we present some of the results of ongoing processing of the 3D volume, focussing on the internal structure of some of the fault blocks that overlies the S detachment. 2D processing of the data shows a relatively simple series of tilted fault block, bound by west-dipping faults that detach downwards onto the bright S reflector. However, inspection of the 3D volume produced by 3D pre-stack time migration reveals that the fault blocks contain a complex set of sedimentary packages, with strata tilted to the east, west, north and south, each package bound by faults. Furthermore, the top of crustal

  15. Automatic picking of direct P, S seismic phases and fault zone head waves (United States)

    Ross, Z. E.; Ben-Zion, Y.


    We develop a set of algorithms for automatic detection and picking of direct P and S waves, as well as fault zone head waves (FZHW), generated by earthquakes on faults that separate different lithologies and recorded by local seismic networks. The S-wave picks are performed using polarization analysis and related filters to remove P-wave energy from the seismograms, and utilize STA/LTA and kurtosis detectors in tandem to lock on the phase arrival. The early portions of P waveforms are processed with STA/LTA, kurtosis and skewness detectors for possible first-arriving FZHW. Identification and picking of direct P and FZHW is performed by a multistage algorithm that accounts for basic characteristics (motion polarities, time difference, sharpness and amplitudes) of the two phases. The algorithm is shown to perform well on synthetic seismograms produced by a model with a velocity contrast across the fault, and observed data generated by earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault and the Hayward fault. The developed techniques can be used for systematic processing of large seismic waveform data sets recorded near major faults.

  16. Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone in Jamaica: paleoseismology and seismic hazard (United States)

    Koehler, R.D.; Mann, P.; Prentice, Carol S.; Brown, L.; Benford, B.; Grandison-Wiggins, M.


    The countries of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic all straddle the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone ( EPGFZ), a major left-lateral, strike-slip fault system bounding the Caribbean and North American plates. Past large earthquakes that destroyed the capital cities of Kingston, Jamaica (1692, 1907), and Port-au-Prince, Haiti (1751, 1770), as well as the 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people, have heightened awareness of seismic hazards in the northern Caribbean. We present here new geomorphic and paleoseismic information bearing on the location and relative activity of the EPGFZ, which marks the plate boundary in Jamaica. Documentation of a river bank exposure and several trenches indicate that this fault is active and has the potential to cause major destructive earthquakes in Jamaica. The results suggest that the fault has not ruptured the surface in at least 500 yr and possibly as long as 28 ka. The long period of quiescence and subdued geomorphic expression of the EPGFZ indicates that it may only accommodate part of the ∼7–9 mm=yr plate deformation rate measured geodetically and that slip may be partitioned on other undocumented faults. Large uncertainties related to the neotectonic framework of Jamaica remain and more detailed fault characterization studies are necessary to accurately assess seismic hazards.

  17. Offshore extension of the Great Sumatra Fault revealed by seismic, bathymetric and seafloor imaging (United States)

    Gaedicke, C.; Soh, W.; Djajadihardja, Y.; Saito, S.; Ikeda, Y.; Kudrass, H.; Djamaluddin, R.


    The northwestern Sunda Arc is cut by two giant dextral shear zones, which accommodate the oblique subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate against Eurasia along this portion of the Sunda Arc. These are the Sumatra Fault Zone on Sumatra Island and the Mentawai Fault Zone off west Sumatra. The strike-slip shear zones bear a high earthquake risk potential. Several Indonesian-Japanese-German marine expeditions focused on the tectonics and the evolution of the Sumatra and Java forearc region. Now a dense grid of multi- and single-channel reflection seismic profiles, high resolution bathymetry and seafloor direct observations using submersible SHINKAI 6500 allow tracing the Sumatra and Mentawai Fault Zones south off west Java. The geometry of transtensional basins, transpressional horst structures and elongated ridges and valleys clearly shows the dextral sense of motion and the splay character of the fault zones in the study area. Multi-channel reflection profiles image the deep structure of the major strike slip faults which originate from reactivated thrust planes within the Java accretionary wedge. During SHINKAI 6500 dives one master fault could be followed. Recent offset along the fault is documented on sea floor images by young unweathered fault scarps.

  18. Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis. (United States)

    Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C


    An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  19. Detection of frictional heat in seismic faults by coal reflectance (United States)

    Kitamura, M.; Mukoyoshi, H.; Fulton, P. M.; Hirose, T.


    Quantitative assessment of heat generation along a fault during coseismic faulting is of primary importance in understanding the dynamics of earthquakes. Evidence of substantial frictional heating along a fault is also a reliable indicator determining whether a fault has slipped at high velocity in the past, which is crucial for assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard. The reflectance measurement of vitrinite (one of the primary components of coals) has been considered a possible geothermometer of fault zones, especially in accretionary wedges where vitrinite fragments are common [e.g., Sakaguchi et al., 2011]. Under normal burial conditions, vitrinite reflectance (Ro) increases by irreversible maturation reaction as temperature is elevated and thus sensitively records the maximum temperature to which the vitrinite is subjected. However, the commonly used kinetic models of vitrinite maturation [e.g., Sweeney and Burnham, 1990] may not yield accurate estimates of the peak temperature in a fault zone resulting from fast frictional heating rates [Fulton and Harris, 2012]. Whether or not coal can mature in typical earthquake rise time (e.g., ~10 seconds) remains uncertain. Here we present the results of friction experiments aimed at revealing coal maturation by frictional heat generated at slip velocities representative of natural earthquakes of up to 1.3 m/s. All friction experiments were conducted on a mixture of 90 wt% quartz powder and 10 wt% coal grains for simulated fault gouge at three different velocities of 0.0013 m/s, 0.65 m/s and 1.3 m/s, a constant normal stress of 1.0 MPa and ~15 m displacement under anoxic, dry nitrogen atmosphere at room temperature. We also measured temperature in the gouge zone during faulting by thermocouples. The initial coal fragments consist of vitrinite, inertinite and liptinite. Although liptinite was easy to identify microscopically, it was difficult to discriminate between vitrinite and inertinite grains as their grain size

  20. Faults survey by 3D reflection seismics; Sanjigen hanshaho jishin tansa ni yoru danso chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsuchiya, T.; Ejiri, T.; Yamada, N.; Narita, N.; Aso, H.; Takano, H.; Matsumura, M. [Dia Consultants Company, Tokyo (Japan)


    This paper describes fault survey by 3D seismic reflection exploration. Survey has been conducted mainly at flat land area without pavement not in urban area in Japan. Subsurface structure is complicated with intersecting multiple faults. In this area, a lot of geological investigations have been done prior to the seismic reflection exploration. Fairly certain images of faults have been obtained. However, there were still unknown structures. Survey was conducted at an area of 170m{times}280m in the CDP range. Measurements were carried out by using 100 g of dynamite per seismic generation point combined with 40 Hz velocity geophones. Fixed distribution consisting of lattice points of 12{times}12 was adopted as an observation method. In and around the lattice, a great number of explosions were carried out. The CDP stacking method and the method of migration after stacking were used for the data processing. The 3D structures of six horizons and five faults could be interpreted. Interpreted horizons were well agreed with the logging results. 3 figs.

  1. Mineralogical compositions of fault rocks from surface ruptures of Wenchuan earthquake and implication of mineral transformation during the seismic cycle along Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, Sichuan Province, China (United States)

    Dang, Jiaxiang; Zhou, Yongsheng; He, Changrong; Ma, Shengli


    There are two co-seismic bedrock surface ruptures from the Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the northern and central parts of the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault, Sichuan Province, southwest China. In this study, we report on the macrostructure of the fault rocks and results from X-ray powder diffraction analysis of minerals from rocks in the fault zone. The most recent fault gouge (the gouge produced by the most recent co-seismic fault movement) in all the studied outcrops is dark or grayish-black, totally unconsolidated and ultrafine-grained. Older fault gouges in the same outcrops are grayish or yellowish and weakly consolidated. X-ray powder diffraction analysis results show that mineral assemblages in both the old fault gouge and the new fault gouge are more complicated than the mineral assemblages in the bedrock as the fault gouge is rich in clay minerals. The fault gouge inherited its major rock-forming minerals from the parent rocks, but the clay minerals in the fault gouge were generated in the fault zone and are therefore authigenic and synkinematic. In profiles across the fault, clay mineral abundances increase as one traverses from the bedrock to the breccia to the old gouge and from the old gouge to the new gouge. Quartz and illite are found in all collected gouge samples. The dominant clay minerals in the new fault gouge are illite and smectite along the northern part of the surface rupture and illite/smectite mixed-layer clay in the middle part of the rupture. Illite/smectite mixed-layer clay found in the middle part of the rupture indicates that fault slip was accompanied by K-rich fluid circulation. The existence of siderite, anhydrite, and barite in the northern part of the rupture suggests that fault slip at this locality was accompanied by acidic fluids containing ions of Fe, Ca, and Ba.

  2. Investigating the possible effects of salt in the fault zones on rates of seismicity - insights from analogue and numerical modeling (United States)

    Urai, Janos; Kettermann, Michael; Abe, Steffen


    The presence of salt in dilatant normal faults may have a strong influence on fault mechanics and related seismicity. However, we lack a detailed understanding of these processes. This study is based on the geological setting of the Groningen area. During tectonic faulting in the Groningen area, rock salt may have flown downwards into dilatant faults, which thus may contain lenses of rock salt at present. Because of its viscous properties, the presence of salt lenses in a fault may introduce a strain-rate dependency to the faulting and affect the distribution of magnitudes of seismic events. We present a "proof of concept" showing that the above processes can be investigated using a combination of analogue and numerical modeling. Full scaling and discussion of the importance of these processes to induced seismicity in Groningen require further, more detailed study. The analogue experiments are based on a simplified stratigraphy of the Groningen area, where it is generally thought that most of the Rotliegend faulting has taken place in the Jurassic, after deposition of the Zechstein. This is interpreted to mean that at the time of faulting the sulphates were brittle anhydrite. If these layers were sufficiently brittle to fault in a dilatant fashion, rock salt could flow downwards into the dilatant fractures. To test this hypothesis, we use sandbox experiments where we combine cohesive powder as analog for brittle anhydrites and carbonates with viscous salt analogs to explore the developing fault geometry and the resulting distribution of salt in the faults. In the numerical models we investigate the stick-slip behavior of fault zones containing ductile material using the Discrete Element Method (DEM). Results show that the DEM approach is in principle suitable for the modeling of the seismicity of faults containing salt: the stick-slip motion of the fault becomes dependent on shear loading rate with a modification of the frequency magnitude distribution of the

  3. Constructing constitutive relationships for seismic and aseismic fault slip (United States)

    Beeler, N.M.


    For the purpose of modeling natural fault slip, a useful result from an experimental fault mechanics study would be a physically-based constitutive relation that well characterizes all the relevant observations. This report describes an approach for constructing such equations. Where possible the construction intends to identify or, at least, attribute physical processes and contact scale physics to the observations such that the resulting relations can be extrapolated in conditions and scale between the laboratory and the Earth. The approach is developed as an alternative but is based on Ruina (1983) and is illustrated initially by constructing a couple of relations from that study. In addition, two example constitutive relationships are constructed; these describe laboratory observations not well-modeled by Ruina's equations: the unexpected shear-induced weakening of silica-rich rocks at high slip speed (Goldsby and Tullis, 2002) and fault strength in the brittle ductile transition zone (Shimamoto, 1986). The examples, provided as illustration, may also be useful for quantitative modeling.

  4. Seismicity and Seismotectonic Properties of The Sultandağı Fault Zone (Afyonkarahisar-Konya): Western Anatolia,Turkey (United States)

    Kalafat, D.; Gunes, Y.; Kekovali, K.; Kara, M.; Gorgun, E.


    n this study we investigated seismicity and source characteristics of the Sultandağı Fault Zone (SFZ). As known Western Anatolia is one of the most important seismically active region in Turkey. The relative movement of the African-Arabian plates, it causes the Anatolian Plate to movement to the west-Southwest direction 2.5 cm per year and this result provides N-S direction with extensional regime in the recent tectonic. In this study, especially with the assessment of seismic activity occurring in Afyon and around between 200-2002 years, we have been evaluated to date with seismic activity as well as fault mechanism solution. We analyzed recent seismicity and distribution of earthquakes in this region. In the last century, 3 important earthquakes occurred in the Sultandağı Fault zone (Afyon-Akşehir Graben), this result shown it was seismic active and broken fault segments caused stress balance in the region and it caused to occur with short intervals of earthquakes in 2000 and 2002, triggering each other. The scope of this tudy, we installed new BB stations in the region and we have been done of the fault plane solutions for important earthquakes. The focal mechanisms clearly exhibit the activation of a NE-SW trending normal faulting system along the SFZ region. The results of stress analysis showed that the effective current tectonic evolution of normal faulting in this region. This study is supported by Bogazici University Research Projects Commission under SRP/BAP project No. 12280. Key Words: Sultandağı fault zone, normal faulting, seismicity, fault mechanism

  5. Micro-seismicity, fault structure, and hydrologic compartmentalization within the Coso Geothermal Field, California, from 1996 until present (United States)

    Kaven, J. O.; Hickman, S.; Davatzes, N. C.


    Geothermal reservoirs derive their capacity for fluid and heat transport in large part from faults and fractures. In conventional reservoirs, preexisting faults and fractures are the main conduits for fluid flow, while in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), fractures and faults that are generated or enlarged (i.e., through increases in surface area and aperture) by hydraulic stimulation provide the main pathways for fluids and heat. In both types of geothermal systems, seismicity can be used to locate active faults, which can act either as conduits for along-fault fluid flow and/or barriers to cross-fault flow. We relocate 14 years of seismicity in the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) using differential travel time relocations to improve our knowledge of the subsurface geologic and hydrologic structure. The seismicity at Coso has been recorded on a local network operated by the Navy Geothermal Program, which provides exceptional coverage and quality of data. Using the relocated catalog, we employ a newly developed algorithm for fault identification using the spatial seismicity distribution and a priori constraints on fault zone width derived from local geologic mapping. We avoid having to assume a particular fault-normal seismicity distribution by finding regions of maximum spatial seismicity density. Assuming a maximum spatial density is physically plausible since faults, or more accurately fault zones, generate most of the associated seismicity within a central fault core or damage zone. These techniques are developed for naturally occurring, active faults within the CGF on which seismicity is induced, in part, by changes in production and injection. They can also be applied to EGS if seismicity is induced within newly created fracture systems of comparable width or if this seismicity is generated by stimulating pre-existing, partially sealed faults. The results of the relocations reveal that clouds of seismicity shrink into distinct oblate volumes of seismicity in

  6. Layer rotation around vertical fault overlap zones: observations from seismic data, field examples, and physical experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rykkelid, E. [Norsk Hydro ASA, Oslo (Norway); Fossen, H. [University of Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Geology


    Vertically overlapping fault segments are common structures in faulted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Experimental work and field observations show a close relationship between the rotation of layers in the region of overlap, the type of overlap (restraining vs. releasing) and fault curvature. In general, releasing overlap zones (where the normal fault steps upward into the hanging-wall) show normal rotation or drag, thus decreasing the effective throw on the fault. In contrast, restraining overlaps tend to develop reverse rotation in the overlap zone, particularly if the normal fault tips curve toward each other. Releasing overlap zones seem to be more common than the restraining zones, and the overlaps tend to form in shaly layers between thicker sandstones. Narrow overlaps of this type typically develop zones of drag or shale smear that could seal or reduce communication across the adjacent sandstone layers. Hence, overlap zones may significantly influence communication in a reservoir, depending on the fault arrangement, geometry, and lithological properties. Seismic interpreters and structural geologists should pay particular attention to layer rotation to identify vertical overlap structures and to evaluate their influence on reservoir performance. (author)

  7. Seismic hazard of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in Haiti inferred from palaeoseismology (United States)

    Prentice, C.S.; Mann, P.; Crone, A.J.; Gold, R.D.; Hudnut, K.W.; Briggs, R.W.; Koehler, R.D.; Jean, P.


    The Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone is recognized as one of the primary plate-bounding fault systems in Haiti. The strike-slip fault runs adjacent to the city of Port-au-Prince and was initially thought to be the source of the 12 January 2010, M w 7.0 earthquake. Haiti experienced significant earthquakes in 1751 and 1770 (refsA, 3, 4, 5), but the role of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone in these earthquakes is poorly known. We use satellite imagery, aerial photography, light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and field investigations to document Quaternary activity on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We report late Quaternary, left-lateral offsets of up to 160m, and a set of small offsets ranging from 1.3 to 3.3m that we associate with one of the eighteenth century earthquakes. The size of the small offsets implies that the historical earthquake was larger than M w 7.0, but probably smaller than M w 7.6. We found no significant surface rupture associated with the 2010 earthquake. The lack of surface rupture, coupled with other seismologic, geologic and geodetic observations, suggests that little, if any, accumulated strain was released on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in the 2010 earthquake. These results confirm that the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault remains a significant seismic hazard. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  8. An ordering heuristic for building Binary Decision Diagrams for fault-trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouissou, M. [Electricite de France (EDF), 75 - Paris (France)


    Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) have recently made a noticeable entry in the RAMS field. This kind of representation for boolean functions makes possible the assessment of complex fault-trees, both qualitatively (minimal cut-sets search) and quantitatively (exact calculation of top event probability). The object of the paper is to present a pre-processing of the fault-tree which ensures that the results given by different heuristics on the `optimized` fault-tree are not too sensitive to the way the tree is written. This property is based on a theoretical proof. In contrast with some well known heuristics, the method proposed is not based only on intuition and practical experiments. (author) 12 refs.

  9. An ordering heuristic for building Binary Decision Diagrams for fault-trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouissou, M.


    Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) have recently made a noticeable entry in the RAMS field. This kind of representation for boolean functions makes possible the assessment of complex fault-trees, both qualitatively (minimal cut-sets search) and quantitatively (exact calculation of top event probability). The object of the paper is to present a pre-processing of the fault-tree which ensures that the results given by different heuristics on the 'optimized' fault-tree are not too sensitive to the way the tree is written. This property is based on a theoretical proof. In contrast with some well known heuristics, the method proposed is not based only on intuition and practical experiments. (author)

  10. On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Vorobieva


    Full Text Available The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.

  11. Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings (United States)

    Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald


    Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 4. System reliability and analysis techniques sessions B/C - event trees/fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.; Young, J.


    This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis

  13. Reflection seismic studies over the end-glacial Burträsk fault, Skellefteå, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Juhlin


    Full Text Available Reflection seismic data were acquired along a ca. 22 km long profile over the end-glacial Burträsk fault with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. A steeply dipping reflection can be correlated to the Burträsk fault, indicating that the fault dips at about 55° to the southeast near the surface. The reflection from the fault is rather poorly imaged, probably due to a lateral offset in the fault of about 1 km at this location and the crookedness of the seismic profile in the vicinity of the fault. A more pronounced steeply dipping reflection is observed about 4 km southeast of the Burträsk fault. Based on its correlation with a topographic low at the surface this reflection is interpreted to originate from a fracture zone. There are no signs of large displacements along this zone as the glacial ice receded, but earthquakes could be associated with it today. Other reflections on the processed seismic section may originate from changes in lithological variations in the supra-crustal rocks or from intrusions of more mafic rock. Constraints on the fault geometry provided by the reflection seismic data will help determine what stresses were required to activate the fault when the major rupture along it occurred ca. 9500 years ago.

  14. Use of controlled dynamic impacts on hierarchically structured seismically hazardous faults for seismically safe relaxation of shear stresses (United States)

    Ruzhich, Valery V.; Psakhie, Sergey G.; Levina, Elena A.; Shilko, Evgeny V.; Grigoriev, Alexandr S.


    In the paper we briefly outline the experience in forecasting catastrophic earthquakes and the general problems in ensuring seismic safety. The purpose of our long-term research is the development and improvement of the methods of man-caused impacts on large-scale fault segments to safely reduce the negative effect of seismodynamic failure. Various laboratory and large-scale field experiments were carried out in the segments of tectonic faults in Baikal rift zone and in main cracks in block-structured ice cove of Lake Baikal using the developed measuring systems and special software for identification and treatment of deformation response of faulty segments to man-caused impacts. The results of the study let us to ground the necessity of development of servo-controlled technologies, which are able to provide changing the shear resistance and deformation regime of fault zone segments by applying vibrational and pulse triggering impacts. We suppose that the use of triggering impacts in highly stressed segments of active faults will promote transferring the geodynamic state of these segments from a metastable to a more stable and safe state.

  15. Anatomy of an Active Seismic Source: the Interplay between Present-Day Seismic Activity and Inherited Fault Zone Architecture (Central Apennines, Italy) (United States)

    Fondriest, M.; Demurtas, M.; Bistacchi, A.; Fabrizio, B.; Storti, F.; Valoroso, L.; Di Toro, G.


    The mechanics and seismogenic behaviour of fault zones are strongly influenced by their internal structure, in terms of both fault geometry and fault rock constitutive properties. In recent years high-resolution seismological techniques yielded new constraints on the geometry and velocity structure of seismogenic faults down to 10s meters length scales. This reduced the gap between geophysical imaging of active seismic sources and field observations of exhumed fault zones. Nevertheless fundamental questions such as the origin of geometrical and kinematic complexities associated to seismic faulting remain open. We addressed these topics by characterizing the internal structure of the Vado di Corno Fault Zone, an active seismogenic normal fault cutting carbonates in the Central Apennines of Italy and comparing it with the present-day seismicity of the area. The fault footwall block, which was exhumed from < 2 km depth, was mapped with high detail (< 1 m spatial resolution) for 2 km of exposure along strike, combining field structural data and photogrammetric surveys in a three dimensional structural model. Three main structural units separated by principal fault strands were recognized: (i) cataclastic unit (20-100 m thick), (ii) damage zone (≤ 300 m thick), (iii) breccia unit ( 20 thick). The cataclastic unit lines the master fault and represents the core of the normal fault zone. In-situ shattering together with evidence of extreme (possibly coseismic) shear strain localization (e.g., mirror-like faults with truncated clasts, ultrafine-grained sheared veins) was recognized. The breccia unit is an inherited thrust zone affected by pervasive veining and secondary dolomitization. It strikes subparallel to the active normal fault and is characterized by a non-cylindrical geometry with 10-100 m long frontal and lateral ramps. The cataclastic unit cuts through thrust flats within the breccia unit, whereas normal to oblique inversion occur on frontal and lateral ramps

  16. Rolling bearing fault diagnosis using adaptive deep belief network with dual-tree complex wavelet packet. (United States)

    Shao, Haidong; Jiang, Hongkai; Wang, Fuan; Wang, Yanan


    Automatic and accurate identification of rolling bearing fault categories, especially for the fault severities and compound faults, is a challenge in rotating machinery fault diagnosis. For this purpose, a novel method called adaptive deep belief network (DBN) with dual-tree complex wavelet packet (DTCWPT) is developed in this paper. DTCWPT is used to preprocess the vibration signals to refine the fault characteristics information, and an original feature set is designed from each frequency-band signal of DTCWPT. An adaptive DBN is constructed to improve the convergence rate and identification accuracy with multiple stacked adaptive restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The proposed method is applied to the fault diagnosis of rolling bearings. The results confirm that the proposed method is more effective than the existing methods. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Application of Post-stack migration to seismic data associated with fault structures


    Koduru Anitha; Mohanty P. R


    In hydrocarbon exploration, wave-equation migration techniques play an important role in imaging the complex geological structures. Usually, post-stack migration scheme is applied to the seismic data to improve the resolution with restoration of dipping reflectors to their true position. As a result, the migrated time sections are interpretable in terms of subsurface features. As a numerical study, three fault models are considered for the present study. First of all, ...

  18. Finite-frequency sensitivity kernels of seismic waves to fault zone structures (United States)

    Allam, A. A.; Tape, C.; Ben-Zion, Y.


    We analyse the volumetric sensitivity of fault zone seismic head and trapped waves by constructing finite-frequency sensitivity (Fréchet) kernels for these phases using a suite of idealized and tomographically derived velocity models of fault zones. We first validate numerical calculations by waveform comparisons with analytical results for two simple fault zone models: a vertical bimaterial interface separating two solids of differing elastic properties, and a `vertical sandwich' with a vertical low velocity zone surrounded on both sides by higher velocity media. Establishing numerical accuracy up to 12 Hz, we compute sensitivity kernels for various phases that arise in these and more realistic models. In contrast to direct P body waves, which have little or no sensitivity to the internal fault zone structure, the sensitivity kernels for head waves have sharp peaks with high values near the fault in the faster medium. Surface wave kernels show the broadest spatial distribution of sensitivity, while trapped wave kernels are extremely narrow with sensitivity focused entirely inside the low-velocity fault zone layer. Trapped waves are shown to exhibit sensitivity patterns similar to Love waves, with decreasing width as a function of frequency and multiple Fresnel zones of alternating polarity. In models that include smoothing of the boundaries of the low velocity zone, there is little effect on the trapped wave kernels, which are focused in the central core of the low velocity zone. When the source is located outside a shallow fault zone layer, trapped waves propagate through the surrounding medium with body wave sensitivity before becoming confined. The results provide building blocks for full waveform tomography of fault zone regions combining high-frequency head, trapped, body, and surface waves. Such an imaging approach can constrain fault zone structure across a larger range of scales than has previously been possible.

  19. Staff technical position on investigations to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, K.I.; Blackford, M.E.; Ibrahim, A.K.


    The purpose of this Staff Technical Position (STP) is to provide guidance to the US Department of Energy (DOE) on acceptable geologic repository investigations that can be used to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards. ne staff considers that the approach this STP takes to investigations of fault displacement and seismic phenomena is appropriate for the collection of sufficient data for input to analyses of fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards, both for the preclosure and postclosure performance periods. However, detailed analyses of fault displacement and seismic data, such as those required for comprehensive assessments of repository performance, may identify the need for additional investigations. Section 2.0 of this STP describes the 10 CFR Part 60 requirements that form the basis for investigations to describe fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository. Technical position statements and corresponding discussions are presented in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, respectively. Technical position topics in this STP are categorized thusly: (1) investigation considerations, (2) investigations for fault-displacement hazards, and (3) investigations for seismic hazards

  20. Seismic anisotropy in central North Anatolian Fault Zone and its implications on crustal deformation (United States)

    Licciardi, A.; Eken, T.; Taymaz, T.; Piana Agostinetti, N.; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, S.


    We investigate the crustal seismic structure and anisotropy around the central portion of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, a major plate boundary, using receiver function analysis. The characterization of crustal seismic anisotropy plays a key role in our understanding of present and past deformation processes at plate boundaries. The development of seismic anisotropy in the crust arises from the response of the rocks to complicated deformation regimes induced by plate interaction. Through the analysis of azimuthally-varying signals of teleseismic receiver functions, we map the anisotropic properties of the crust as a function of depth, by employing the harmonic decomposition technique. Although the Moho is located at a depth of about 40 km, with no major offset across the area, our results show a clear asymmetric distribution of crustal properties between the northern and southern blocks, divided by the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Heterogeneous and strongly anisotropic crust is present in the southern block, where complex intra-crustal signals are the results of strong deformation. In the north, a simpler and weakly anisotropic crust is typically observed. The strongest anisotropic signal is located in the first 15 km of the crust and is widespread in the southern block. Stations located on top of the main active faults in the area indicate the highest amplitudes, together with fault-parallel strikes of the fast plane of anisotropy. We interpret the origin of this signal as due to structure-induced anisotropy, and roughly determine its depth extent up to 15-20 km for these stations. Away from the faults, we suggest the contribution of previously documented uplifted basement blocks to explain the observed anisotropy at upper and middle crustal depths. Finally, we interpret coherent NE-SW orientations below the Moho as a result of frozen-in anisotropy in the upper mantle, as suggested by previous studies.

  1. Do fault-related folds follow the same scaling law as their associated faults? A study using 3D seismic reflection data (United States)

    Pitcher, Eleanor; Imber, Jonathan


    Fractal distributions are largely agreed to follow a power-law distribution. Power-law scaling relationships describe the size distribution of fault lengths or displacements. Being able to identify these scaling properties provides a powerful tool for predicting the numbers of geological structures, such as small-scale faults in sedimentary basins that are below the resolution of seismic reflection data. The aim of this study is to determine whether fault-related folds follow the same power law scaling properties, or if they follow a different scaling law. We use TrapTester to interpret a 3D seismic volume from the Gulf of Mexico to construct fault planes and cut-off lines along selected horizons in the vicinity of fault upper tip lines. Fault-related folds are particularly well developed above steeply plunging tip lines, but are discontinuous along the strike of the fault plane. Folding is less well developed on horizons that intersect, or lie close to, the locus of maximum throw (bullseye) of the fault plane. We then measured fold amplitudes and fault throws across these same horizons using a one-dimensional multi-line sampling approach. Graphs of fault throw and fold amplitude vs. distance parallel to fault strike show that folds occur where there is no resolvable fault throw, and that fault throw and fold amplitudes show an approximately inverse relationship. Close to the locus of maximum throw, there is largely just faulting, whilst at the upper tip line folding predominates. By plotting cumulative frequency against throw for the fault and fold data we can investigate whether the data follow a power law, log normal or exponential distribution. Plotting the data on log vs. log (power law), linear vs. log (log normal) and log vs. linear (exponential) axes allow us to establish which displays the best "straight-line fit". We observed that the fault throw data satisfied a straight-line on a log vs. log graph - implying a power law distribution - and also returned

  2. Fault Tree Analysis for an Inspection Robot in a Nuclear Power Plant (United States)

    Ferguson, Thomas A.; Lu, Lixuan


    The life extension of current nuclear reactors has led to an increasing demand on inspection and maintenance of critical reactor components that are too expensive to replace. To reduce the exposure dosage to workers, robotics have become an attractive alternative as a preventative safety tool in nuclear power plants. It is crucial to understand the reliability of these robots in order to increase the veracity and confidence of their results. This study presents the Fault Tree (FT) analysis to a coolant outlet piper snake-arm inspection robot in a nuclear power plant. Fault trees were constructed for a qualitative analysis to determine the reliability of the robot. Insight on the applicability of fault tree methods for inspection robotics in the nuclear industry is gained through this investigation.

  3. Active fault characterization throughout the Caribbean and Central America for seismic hazard modeling (United States)

    Styron, Richard; Pagani, Marco; Garcia, Julio


    The region encompassing Central America and the Caribbean is tectonically complex, defined by the Caribbean plate's interactions with the North American, South American and Cocos plates. Though active deformation over much of the region has received at least cursory investigation the past 50 years, the area is chronically understudied and lacks a modern, synoptic characterization. Regardless, the level of risk in the region - as dramatically demonstrated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake - remains high because of high-vulnerability buildings and dense urban areas home to over 100 million people, who are concentrated near plate boundaries and other major structures. As part of a broader program to study seismic hazard worldwide, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation is currently working to quantify seismic hazard in the region. To this end, we are compiling a database of active faults throughout the region that will be integrated into similar models as recently done in South America. Our initial compilation hosts about 180 fault traces in the region. The faults show a wide range of characteristics, reflecting the diverse styles of plate boundary and plate-margin deformation observed. Regional deformation ranges from highly localized faulting along well-defined strike-slip faults to broad zones of distributed normal or thrust faulting, and from readily-observable yet slowly-slipping structures to inferred faults with geodetically-measured slip rates >10 mm/yr but essentially no geomorphic expression. Furthermore, primary structures such as the Motagua-Polochic Fault Zone (the strike-slip plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in Guatemala) display strong along-strike slip rate gradients, and many other structures are undersea for most or all of their length. A thorough assessment of seismic hazard in the region will require the integration of a range of datasets and techniques and a comprehensive characterization of epistemic uncertainties driving

  4. Seismicity associated with magmatism, faulting and hydrothermal circulation at Aluto Volcano, Main Ethiopian Rift (United States)

    Wilks, Matthew; Kendall, J.-Michael; Nowacki, Andy; Biggs, Juliet; Wookey, James; Birhanu, Yelebe; Ayele, Atalay; Bedada, Tulu


    The silicic volcanic centres of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) play a central role in facilitating continental rifting. Many of these volcanoes host geothermal resources and are located in heavily populated regions. InSAR studies have shown several are deforming, but regional seismic networks have detected little seismicity. A local network of 12 seismometers was deployed at Aluto Volcano from 2012 to 2014, and detected 2142 earthquakes within a 24-month period. We locate the events using a 1D velocity model that exploits a regional model and information from geothermal boreholes and calculate local magnitudes, b-values and focal mechanisms. Event depths generally range from the near surface to 15 km with most of the seismicity clustering in the upper 2 km. A significant amount of seismicity follows the Artu Jawa Fault Zone, which trends in alignment with the Wonji Fault Belt, NNE-SSW and is consistent with previous studies of strain localisation in the MER. Focal mechanisms are mostly normal in style, with the mean T-axes congruent to the orientation of extension in the rift at this latitude. Some show relatively small left-lateral strike-slip components and are likely associated with the reactivation of NE-ENE structures at the southern tip of the Aluto-Gedemsa segment. Events range from - 0.40 to 2.98 in magnitude and we calculate an overall b-value of 1.40 ± 0.14. This relatively elevated value suggests fluid-induced seismicity that is particularly evident in the shallow hydrothermal reservoir and above it. Subdividing our observations according to depth identifies distinct regions beneath the volcanic edifice: a shallow zone (- 2-0 km) of high seismicity and high b-values that corresponds to the hydrothermal system and is influenced by a high fluid saturation and circulation; a relatively aseismic zone (0-2 km) with low b-values that is impermeable to ascending volatiles; a region of increased fluid-induced seismicity (2-9 km) that is driven by magmatic

  5. An integrated geodetic and seismic study of the Cusco Fault system in the Cusco Region-Southern Peru (United States)

    Norabuena, E. O.; Tavera, H. J.


    The Cusco Fault system is composed by six main faults (Zurite, Tamboray, Qoricocha, Tambomachay, Pachatusan, and Urcos) extending in a NW-SE direction over the Cusco Region in southeastern Peru. From these, the Tambomachay is a normal fault of 20 km length, strikes N120°E and bounds a basin filled with quaternary lacustrine and fluvial deposits. Given its 5 km distance to Cusco, an historical and Inca's archeological landmark, it represents a great seismic hazard for its more than 350,000 inhabitants. The Tambomachay fault as well as the other secondary faults have been a source of significant seismic activity since historical times being the more damaging ones the Cusco earthquakes of 1650, 1950 and more recently April 1986 (M 5.8). Previous geological studies indicate that at the beginning of the Quaternary the fault showed a transcurrent mechanism leading to the formation of the Cusco basin. However, nowadays its mechanism is normal fault and scarps up to 22m can be observed. We report the current dynamics of the Tambomachay fault and secondary faults based on seismic activity imaged by a network of 29 broadband stations deployed in the Cusco Region as well as the deformation field inferred from GPS survey measurements carried out between 2014 and 2016.

  6. Reliability database development for use with an object-oriented fault tree evaluation program (United States)

    Heger, A. Sharif; Harringtton, Robert J.; Koen, Billy V.; Patterson-Hine, F. Ann


    A description is given of the development of a fault-tree analysis method using object-oriented programming. In addition, the authors discuss the programs that have been developed or are under development to connect a fault-tree analysis routine to a reliability database. To assess the performance of the routines, a relational database simulating one of the nuclear power industry databases has been constructed. For a realistic assessment of the results of this project, the use of one of existing nuclear power reliability databases is planned.

  7. Fault tree applications within the safety program of Idaho Nuclear Corporation (United States)

    Vesely, W. E.


    Computerized fault tree analyses are used to obtain both qualitative and quantitative information about the safety and reliability of an electrical control system that shuts the reactor down when certain safety criteria are exceeded, in the design of a nuclear plant protection system, and in an investigation of a backup emergency system for reactor shutdown. The fault tree yields the modes by which the system failure or accident will occur, the most critical failure or accident causing areas, detailed failure probabilities, and the response of safety or reliability to design modifications and maintenance schemes.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparison of the two techniques: arithmetic means and expertons, used for aggregation of experts’ judgments relative to basic events of fault trees. Valuations as confidence intervals included in [0, 1] have been considered. First, bounds are numbers to one decimal; next, numbers belonging to [0, 1]. In this last case, R+_expertons concept is used, with a counter-expertise form proposed. The means technique is well known in practice, but as fault tree is a logical diagram built by "AND" and "OR" gates, i.e. nonlinear operators, its use leads to wrong results and expertons technique should be used.

  9. Seismic site characterization for the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP), Alpine Fault, New Zealand: Preliminary results from the WIZARD array (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Roecker, S. W.; Feenstra, J.; Lord, N.; O'Brien, G.; Pesicek, J. D.; Bannister, S. C.; Townend, J.


    In support of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) on the Alpine Fault, UW-Madison (UW) and RPI, with assistance from Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) and GNS Science (GNS), deployed a 20-station seismic array in January 2012 around the planned drill site for the DFDP-2 boreholes in the Whataroa Valley on New Zealand's South Island. Half of the stations are short-period PASSCAL instruments deployed by helicopter in remote sites; the other half are UW broadband instruments deployed in the lowland areas. All are being continuously recorded at 100 samples per second. In combination with the SAMBA array operated by VUW, ALFA'12 stations deployed by GNS, and regional GeoNet stations, there is now excellent seismic coverage of a ~100 km stretch of the Alpine Fault. At present, data are in hand from the first ~2 months of WIZARD array operation. As expected based on previous studies in the region, most of the local seismic activity lies outside the perimeter of the WIZARD array, mainly to the north and east. Included in this activity are swarms of similar earthquakes near the northeastern edge of the array. Earthquake swarms have also been reported by Boese et al. (2012) within the SAMBA array to the southwest. In addition, we identify explosions from tunneling operations associated with a hydropower tunnel construction project in the northern part of the WIZARD array. These explosions should prove useful for constraining the shallow P-wave velocity structure. For our initial tomographic analysis, we will merge new data from the WIZARD, SAMBA, and ALFA'12 arrays with the regional dataset of Eberhart-Phillips and Bannister (2002) for the Southern Alps region of the South Island. The regional dataset includes active-source data from the SIGHT offshore-onshore project as well as arrival times from about 300 earthquakes. In this presentation, we present an update of Eberhart-Phillips and Bannister's (2002) regional 3D P-wave velocity model and preliminary 3D P- and S

  10. Seismic hazard in low slip rate crustal faults, estimating the characteristic event and the most hazardous zone: study case San Ramón Fault, in southern Andes (United States)

    Estay, Nicolás P.; Yáñez, Gonzalo; Carretier, Sebastien; Lira, Elias; Maringue, José


    Crustal faults located close to cities may induce catastrophic damages. When recurrence times are in the range of 1000-10 000 or higher, actions to mitigate the effects of the associated earthquake are hampered by the lack of a full seismic record, and in many cases, also of geological evidences. In order to characterize the fault behavior and its effects, we propose three different already-developed time-integration methodologies to define the most likely scenarios of rupture, and then to quantify the hazard with an empirical equation of peak ground acceleration (PGA). We consider the following methodologies: (1) stream gradient and (2) sinuosity indexes to estimate fault-related topographic effects, and (3) gravity profiles across the fault to identify the fault scarp in the basement. We chose the San Ramón Fault on which to apply these methodologies. It is a ˜ 30 km N-S trending fault with a low slip rate (0.1-0.5 mm yr-1) and an approximated recurrence of 9000 years. It is located in the foothills of the Andes near the large city of Santiago, the capital of Chile (> 6 000 000 inhabitants). Along the fault trace we define four segments, with a mean length of ˜ 10 km, which probably become active independently. We tested the present-day seismic activity by deploying a local seismological network for 1 year, finding five events that are spatially related to the fault. In addition, fault geometry along the most evident scarp was imaged in terms of its electrical resistivity response by a high resolution TEM (transient electromagnetic) profile. Seismic event distribution and TEM imaging allowed the constraint of the fault dip angle (˜ 65°) and its capacity to break into the surface. Using the empirical equation of Chiou and Youngs (2014) for crustal faults and considering the characteristic seismic event (thrust high-angle fault, ˜ 10 km, Mw = 6.2-6.7), we estimate the acceleration distribution in Santiago and the hazardous zones. City domains that are under

  11. Active Fault Geometry and Crustal Deformation Along the San Andreas Fault System Through San Gorgonio Pass, California: The View in 3D From Seismicity (United States)

    Nicholson, C.; Hauksson, E.; Plesch, A.


    Understanding the 3D geometry and deformation style of the San Andreas fault (SAF) is critical to accurate dynamic rupture and ground motion prediction models. We use 3D alignments of hypocenter and focal mechanism nodal planes within a relocated earthquake catalog (1981-2011) [Hauksson et al., 2012] to develop improved 3D fault models for active strands of the SAF and adjacent secondary structures. Through San Gorgonio Pass (SGP), earthquakes define a mechanically layered crust with predominantly high-angle strike-slip faults in the upper ~10 km, while at greater depth, intersecting sets of strike-slip, oblique slip and low-angle thrust faults define a wedge-shaped volume deformation of the lower crust. In some places, this interface between upper and lower crustal deformation may be an active detachment fault, and may have controlled the down-dip extent of recent fault rupture. Alignments of hypocenters and nodal planes define multiple principal slip surfaces through SGP, including a through-going steeply-dipping predominantly strike-slip Banning fault strand at depth that upward truncates a more moderately dipping (40°-50°) blind, oblique North Palm Springs fault. The North Palm Springs fault may be the active down-dip extension of the San Gorgonio Pass thrust offset at depth by the principal, through-going Banning strand. In the northern Coachella Valley, seismicity indicates that the Garnet Hill and Banning fault strands are most likely sub-parallel and steeply dipping (~70°NE) to depths of 8-10 km, where they intersect and merge with a stack of moderately dipping to low-angle oblique thrust faults. Gravity and water well data confirm that these faults are sub-parallel and near vertical in the upper 2-3 km. Although the dense wedge of deep seismicity below SGP and largely south of the SAF contains multiple secondary fault sets of different orientations, the predominant fault set appears to be a series of en echelon NW-striking oblique strike-slip faults

  12. The constant failure rate model for fault tree evaluation as a tool for unit protection reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vichev, S.; Bogdanov, D.


    The purpose of this paper is to introduce the fault tree analysis method as a tool for unit protection reliability estimation. The constant failure rate model applies for making reliability assessment, and especially availability assessment. For that purpose an example for unit primary equipment structure and fault tree example for simplified unit protection system is presented (author)

  13. Characteristics of the recent seismic activity on a near-shore fault south of Malta, Central Mediterranean (United States)

    Bozionelos, George; Galea, Pauline; D'Amico, Sebastiano; Agius, Matthew


    The tectonic setting of the Maltese islands is mainly influenced by two dominant rift systems belonging to different ages and having different trends. The first and older rift created the horst and graben structure in northern Malta. The second rift generation, in the south, including the Maghlaq Fault, is associated with the Pantelleria Rift. The Maghlaq Fault is a spectacular NW - SE trending and left-stepping normal fault running along the southern coastline of the Maltese islands, cutting the Oligo-Miocene pre to syn-rift carbonates. Its surface expression is traceable along 4 km of the coastline, where vertical displacements of the island's Tertiary stratigraphic sequence are clearly visible and exceed 210m. These displacements have given rise to sheer, slickensided fault scarps, as well as isolating the small island of Filfla 4km offshore the southern coast. Identification and assessment of the seismic activity related with Maghlaq fault, for the recent years, is performed, re-evaluating and redetermining the hypocentral locations and the source parameters of both recent and older events. The earthquakes that have affected the Maltese islands in the historical past, have occurred mainly at the Sicily Channel, at eastern Sicily, even as far away as the Hellenic arc. Some of these earthquakes also have caused considerable damage to buildings. The Maghlaq fault is believed to be one of the master faults of the Sicily Channel Rift, being parallel to the Malta graben, which passes around 20km south of Malta and shows continuous seismic activity. Despite the relationship of this fault with the graben system, no seismic activity on the Maghlaq fault had been documented previous to 2015. On the July 30nth 2015, an earthquake was widely felt in the southern half of Malta and was approximately located just offshore the southern coast. Since then, a swarm of seismic events lasting several days, as well as other isolated events have occurred, indicating the fault to be

  14. Shallow Faulting in Morelia, Mexico, Based on Seismic Tomography and Geodetically Detected Land Subsidence (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Vergara-Huerta, F.; Chaussard, E.; Wdowinski, S.; DeMets, C.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.


    Subsidence has been a common occurrence in several cities in central Mexico for the past three decades. This process causes substantial damage to the urban infrastructure and housing in several cities and it is a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land-use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies. Since the early 1980's the city of Morelia in Central Mexico has experienced subsidence associated with groundwater extraction in excess of natural recharge from rainfall. Previous works have focused on the detection and temporal evolution of the subsidence spatial distribution. The most recent InSAR analysis confirms the permanence of previously detected rapidly subsiding areas such as the Rio Grande Meander area and also defines 2 subsidence patches previously undetected in the newly developed suburban sectors west of Morelia at the Fraccionamiento Del Bosque along, south of Hwy. 15 and another patch located north of Morelia along Gabino Castañeda del Rio Ave. Because subsidence-induced, shallow faulting develops at high horizontal strain localization, newly developed a subsidence areas are particularly prone to faulting and fissuring. Shallow faulting increases groundwater vulnerability because it disrupts discharge hydraulic infrastructure and creates a direct path for transport of surface pollutants into the underlying aquifer. Other sectors in Morelia that have been experiencing subsidence for longer time have already developed well defined faults such as La Colina, Central Camionera, Torremolinos and La Paloma faults. Local construction codes in the vicinity of these faults define a very narrow swath along which housing construction is not allowed. In order to better characterize these fault systems and provide better criteria for future municipal construction codes we have surveyed the La Colina and Torremolinos fault systems in the western sector of Morelia using seismic tomographic techniques. Our results indicate that La Colina Fault

  15. Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonites (United States)

    Adam, L.; Frehner, M.; Sauer, K. M.; Toy, V.; Guerin-Marthe, S.; Boulton, C. J.


    Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonitesLudmila Adam1, Marcel Frehner2, Katrina Sauer3, Virginia Toy3, Simon Guerin-Marthe4, Carolyn Boulton5(1) University of Auckland, New Zealand, (2) ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (3) University of Otago, New Zealand (4) Durham University, Earth Sciences, United Kingdom (5) Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Quartzo-feldspathic mylonites and schists are the main contributors to seismic wave anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault (New Zealand). We must determine how the physical properties of rocks like these influence elastic wave anisotropy if we want to unravel both the reasons for heterogeneous seismic wave propagation, and interpret deformation processes in fault zones. To study such controls on velocity anisotropy we can: 1) experimentally measure elastic wave anisotropy on cores at in-situ conditions or 2) estimate wave velocities by static (effective medium averaging) or dynamic (finite element) modelling based on EBSD data or photomicrographs. Here we compare all three approaches in study of schist and mylonite samples from the Alpine Fault. Volumetric proportions of intrinsically anisotropic micas in cleavage domains and comparatively isotropic quartz+feldspar in microlithons commonly vary significantly within one sample. Our analysis examines the effects of these phases and their arrangement, and further addresses how heterogeneity influences elastic wave anisotropy. We compare P-wave seismic anisotropy estimates based on millimetres-scale ultrasonic waves under in situ conditions, with simulations that account for micrometre-scale variations in elastic properties of constitutent minerals with the MTEX toolbox and finite-element wave propagation on EBSD images. We observe that the sorts of variations in the distribution of micas and quartz+feldspar within any one of our real core samples can change the elastic wave anisotropy by 10

  16. RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style (United States)

    Johnson, Kendra L.; Hayes, Gavin; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Bergman, Eric A.


    Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained

  17. Direct evaluation of fault trees using object-oriented programming techniques (United States)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.


    Object-oriented programming techniques are used in an algorithm for the direct evaluation of fault trees. The algorithm combines a simple bottom-up procedure for trees without repeated events with a top-down recursive procedure for trees with repeated events. The object-oriented approach results in a dynamic modularization of the tree at each step in the reduction process. The algorithm reduces the number of recursive calls required to solve trees with repeated events and calculates intermediate results as well as the solution of the top event. The intermediate results can be reused if part of the tree is modified. An example is presented in which the results of the algorithm implemented with conventional techniques are compared to those of the object-oriented approach.

  18. Event and fault tree model for reliability analysis of the greek research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fault trees and event trees are widely used in industry to model and to evaluate the reliability of safety systems. Detailed analyzes in nuclear installations require the combination of these two techniques. This work uses the methods of fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) to perform the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in research reactors. The PSA according to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is divided into Level 1, Level 2 and level 3. At Level 1, conceptually safety systems act to prevent the accident, at Level 2, the accident occurred and seeks to minimize the consequences, known as stage management of the accident, and at Level 3 are determined consequences. This paper focuses on Level 1 studies, and searches through the acquisition of knowledge consolidation of methodologies for future reliability studies. The Greek Research Reactor, GRR - 1, was used as a case example. The LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) was chosen as the initiating event and from there were developed the possible accident sequences, using event tree, which could lead damage to the core. Furthermore, for each of the affected systems, the possible accidents sequences were made fault tree and evaluated the probability of each event top of the FT. The studies were conducted using a commercial computational tool SAPHIRE. The results thus obtained, performance or failure to act of the systems analyzed were considered satisfactory. This work is directed to the Greek Research Reactor due to data availability. (author)

  19. Non double couple seismic sources, faults interaction and hypothesis of self-organized criticality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yunga


    Full Text Available Non double couple (NDC sources are considered in framework of the hypothesis that the process of seismic rupture can be viewed as a result of complicated fault geometry and its segmentation. Analytical approach is found to reveal reliability of NDC measure taking into consideration the values of seismic moment tensor errors. The study focuses on the comparison of the deformation modes of the NDC sources with the stress states in its vicinity. The deformation modes of faulting and fracturing at a small scale in NDC earthquake focus and at regional scale in geological unit were investigated using at the last case summation of seismic moment tensors. These local and regional deformation modes in some of geodynamic regimes confirm the self-similarity assumption. For the whole data set scaling relations seem to be more complicated. This feature implies that besides stresses second order factors, as the hydrothermal or magmatic pore fluids in rock, influence source characteristics and bring new complications in scaling relations.

  20. Interseismic Coupling and Seismic Potential along the Indo-Burmese Arc and the Sagaing fault (United States)

    Earnest, A.


    The Indo-burmese arc is formed by the oblique subduction of the Indian plate under the Eurasia. This region is a transition zone between the main Himalayan collision belt and the Andaman subduction zone. This obliquity causes strain partitioning which causes separation of a sliver plate, the Burma Plate. Considering the geomorphic, tectonic and geophysical signatures, IBR comprises all the structural features of an active subduction zone, whereas the present day tectonics of this region is perplexing. Ni et al. [1989] and Rao and Kalpana [2005] suggested that the subduction might have stopped in recent times or continues relatively in an aseismic fashion. This is implied by the NNE compressional stress orientations, instead of its downdip direction. The focal mechanism stress inversions show distinct stress fields above and below the 90 km depth. It is widely believed that the partitioning of Indian-Eurasia plate motion along the Indo-buremse arc and the Sagaing fault region the reason for earthquake occurrence in this region. The relative motion of 36mm/yr, between India and Eurasia, is partitioned across the Sagaing fault through a dextral movement of ˜20mm/yr and remaining velocity is accommodated at the Churachandapur-Mao fault (CMF) through dextral motion. The CMF and its surroundings are considered as seismically a low hazard region, an observation made from the absence of significant earthquakes and lack of field evidences. This made Kundu and Gahalaut [2013] to propose that the motion across the CMF happens in an aseismic manner. Recently, based on GPS studies Steckler et al. [2016] suggested that the region is still actively subducting and the presence of a locked megathrust plate boundary depicts the region as highly vulnerable for large magnitude seismic activities. Our study, based on various geodetic solutions and earthquake slip vectors, focus on interseisimic block models for the Indo-burmese arc and Sagaing fault region so as to model the crustal

  1. Fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis of a digital safety function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maskuniitty, M.; Pulkkinen, U.


    The principles of fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for the analysis of digital safety functions of nuclear power plants are discussed. Based on experiences from a case study, a proposal for a full scale analysis is presented. The feasibility and applicability the above mentioned reliability engineering methods are discussed. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Rich Interfaces for Dependability: Compositional Methods for Dynamic Fault Trees and Arcade models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Crouzen, Pepijn; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Kuntz, G.W.M.; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper discusses two behavioural interfaces for reliability analysis: dynamic fault trees, which model the system reliability in terms of the reliability of its components and Arcade, which models the system reliability at an architectural level. For both formalisms, the reliability is analyzed

  3. Criteria for evaluating protection from single points of failure for partially expanded fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aswani, D.; Badreddine, B.; Malone, M.; Gauthier, G.; Proietty, J.


    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a technique that describes the combinations of events in a system which result in an undesirable outcome. FTA is used as a tool to quantitatively assess a system's probability for an undesirable outcome. Time constraints from concept to production in modern engineering often limit the opportunity for a thorough statistical analysis of a system. Furthermore, when undesirable outcomes are considered such as hazard to human(s), it becomes difficult to identify strict statistical targets for what is acceptable. Consequently, when hazard to human(s) is concerned a common design target is to protect the system from single points of failure (SPOF) which means that no failure mode caused by a single event, concern, or error has a critical consequence on the system. Such a design target is common with 'by-wire' systems. FTA can be used to verify if a system is protected from SPOF. In this paper, sufficient criteria for evaluating protection from SPOF for partially expanded fault trees are proposed along with proof. The proposed criteria consider potential interactions between the lowest drawn events of a partial fault tree expansion which otherwise easily leads to an overly optimistic analysis of protection from SPOF. The analysis is limited to fault trees that are coherent and static

  4. A Rigorous, Compositional, and Extensible Framework for Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Sandhu, R.; Crouzen, Pepijn; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Fault trees (FT) are among the most prominent formalisms for reliability analysis of technical systems. Dynamic FTs extend FTs with support for expressing dynamic dependencies among components. The standard analysis vehicle for DFTs is state-based, and treats the model as a CTMC, a continuous-time

  5. Fault tree construction of hybrid system requirements using qualitative formal method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jang-Soo; Cha, Sung-Deok


    When specifying requirements for software controlling hybrid systems and conducting safety analysis, engineers experience that requirements are often known only in qualitative terms and that existing fault tree analysis techniques provide little guidance on formulating and evaluating potential failure modes. In this paper, we propose Causal Requirements Safety Analysis (CRSA) as a technique to qualitatively evaluate causal relationship between software faults and physical hazards. This technique, extending qualitative formal method process and utilizing information captured in the state trajectory, provides specific guidelines on how to identify failure modes and relationship among them. Using a simplified electrical power system as an example, we describe step-by-step procedures of conducting CRSA. Our experience of applying CRSA to perform fault tree analysis on requirements for the Wolsong nuclear power plant shutdown system indicates that CRSA is an effective technique in assisting safety engineers

  6. High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko


    We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

  7. Micro-seismicity in the Gulf of Cadiz: Is there a link between micro-seismicity, high magnitude earthquakes and active faults? (United States)

    Silva, Sónia; Terrinha, Pedro; Matias, Luis; Duarte, João C.; Roque, Cristina; Ranero, César R.; Geissler, Wolfram H.; Zitellini, Nevio


    The Gulf of Cadiz seismicity is characterized by persistent low to intermediate magnitude earthquakes, occasionally punctuated by high magnitude events such as the M 8.7 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and the M = 7.9 event of February 28th, 1969. Micro-seismicity was recorded during 11 months by a temporary network of 25 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) in an area of high seismic activity, encompassing the potential source areas of the mentioned large magnitude earthquakes. We combined micro-seismicity analysis with processing and interpretation of deep crustal seismic reflection profiles and available refraction data to investigate the possible tectonic control of the seismicity in the Gulf of Cadiz area. Three controlling mechanisms are explored: i) active tectonic structures, ii) transitions between different lithospheric domains and inherited Mesozoic structures, and iii) fault weakening mechanisms. Our results show that micro-seismicity is mostly located in the upper mantle and is associated with tectonic inversion of extensional rift structures and to the transition between different lithospheric/rheological domains. Even though the crustal structure is well imaged in the seismic profiles and in the bathymetry, crustal faults show low to negligible seismic activity. A possible explanation for this is that the crustal thrusts are thin-skinned structures rooting in relatively shallow sub-horizontal décollements associated with (aseismic) serpentinization levels at the top of the lithospheric mantle. Therefore, co-seismic slip along crustal thrusts may only occur during large magnitude events, while for most of the inter-seismic cycle these thrusts remain locked, or slip aseismically. We further speculate that high magnitude earthquake's ruptures may only nucleate in the lithospheric mantle and then propagate into the crust across the serpentinized layers.

  8. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M.


    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these deficiencies

  9. Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards (United States)

    Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, C.; Haukaas, Terje


    ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

  10. Long term monitoring of the micro-seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault, Turkey using template matching (United States)

    Matrullo, Emanuela; Lengliné, Olivier; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Karabulut, Hayrullah; Bouchon, Michel


    The Main Marmara Fault (MMF) represents a 150 km un-ruptured segment of the North Anatolian Fault located below the Marmara Sea. It poses a significant hazard for the large cities surrounding the region and in particular for the megalopolis of Istanbul. The seismic activity has been continuously monitored since 2007 by various seismic networks. For this purpose it represents an extraordinary natural laboratory to study in details the whole seismicity bringing insights into the geometry of the faults systems at depth and mechanical properties at various space-time scales. Waveform similarity-based analysis is performed on the continuous recordings to construct a refined catalog of earthquakes from 2009 to 2014. High-resolution relocation was applied using the double-difference algorithm, using cross-correlation differential travel-time data. Seismic moment magnitudes (Mw) have been computed combining the inversion of earthquake S-wave displacement spectra for the larger events and the estimation of the relative size of multiplets using the singular value decomposition (SVD) thanks the highly coherent waveforms. The obtained catalog of seismicity includes more than 15,000 events. The seismicity strongly varying along the strike and depth exhibits a complex structure that confirms the segmentation of the fault with different mechanical behavior (Schmittbuhl et al., GGG, 2016). In the central part of the Marmara Sea, seismicity is poor and scattered. To the east, in the Cinarcick basin, along the MMF, the seismicity is mainly located around 8-15 km in depth, except at both ends of this basin where the seismicity extends vertically up to surface. In the Yalova and Gemlik region (to the east not on the MMF) the seismicity is distributed over a wide range of depth (from surface to 15 km deep) and is characterized by several clusters vertically elongated. The spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake sequences, which repeatedly occur in specific sub-areas, and the seismic

  11. Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution (United States)

    Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen


    The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

  12. Evolution of b-value during the seismic cycle: Insights from laboratory experiments on simulated faults (United States)

    Rivière, J.; Lv, Z.; Johnson, P. A.; Marone, C.


    We investigate the evolution of the frequency-magnitude b-value during stable and unstable frictional sliding experiments. Using a biaxial shear configuration, we record broadband acoustic emissions (AE) while shearing layers of simulated granular fault gouge under normal stresses of 2-8 MPa and shearing velocity of 11 μm/s. AE event amplitude ranges over 3-4 orders of magnitude and we find an inverse correlation between b and shear stress. The reduction of b occurs systematically as shear stress rises prior to stick-slip failure and indicates a greater proportion of large events when faults are more highly stressed. For quasi-periodic stick-slip events, the temporal evolution of b has a characteristic saw-tooth pattern: it slowly drops as shear stress increases and quickly jumps back up at the time of failure. The rate of decrease during the inter-seismic period is independent of normal stress but the average value of b decreases systematically with normal stress. For stable sliding, b is roughly constant during shear, however it exhibits large variability. During irregular stick-slip, we see a mix of both behaviors: b decreases during the interseismic period between events and then remains constant when shear stress stabilizes, until the next event where a co-seismic increase is observed. Our results will help improve seismic hazard assessment and, ultimately, could aid earthquake prediction efforts by providing a process-based understanding of temporal changes in b-value during the seismic cycle.

  13. Seismic slip recorded in tourmaline fault mirrors from Elba Island (Italy) (United States)

    Viti, C.; Brogi, A.; Liotta, D.; Mugnaioli, E.; Spiess, R.; Dini, A.; Zucchi, M.; Vannuccini, G.


    This paper reports the first example of fault mirrors developed in an unusual protolith, consisting of tourmaline crystals with interstitial goethite. The deformation mechanisms active in the fault zone have been investigated from the outcrop to the nanoscale, aiming to identify possible traces of frictional heating at seismic slip rate, as observed for other fault mirrors in different protoliths. The investigation revealed the superposition of two main deformational stages. The first was dominated by brittle processes and produced a cataclastic/ultracataclastic principal slip zone, a few mm thick; the second was associated with seismic slip and produced a sharp discontinuity (the principal slip surface) within the cataclastic/ultracataclastic zone. The mirror-like coating, a few microns thick, occurs on the principal slip surface, and is characterized by 1) absence of interstitial goethite; 2) occurrence of truncated tourmaline crystals; 3) highly variable grain size, from 200 μm to 200 nm; 4) tourmaline close packing with interlobate grain boundaries, and 5) tourmaline random crystallographic orientation. Micro and nanostructural investigations indicate the occurrence of thermally-activated processes, involving both interstitial goethite and tourmaline. In particular, close to the principal slip surface, goethite is completely decomposed, and produced an amorphous porous material, with local topotactic recrystallization of hematite. Tourmaline clasts are typically characterized by strongly lobate boundaries, indicative of reaction and partial decomposition at grain boundaries. TEM observations revealed the occurrence of tourmaline nanograins, a few tens of nm in size, characterized by rounded shape and fading amorphous boundaries, that cannot be obtained by brittle processes. Lastly, the peculiar interlobate microstructure of the mirror surface is interpreted as the result of grain boundary recrystallization processes taking place by deformation at high

  14. Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the san andreas fault: evidence from trees. (United States)

    Jacoby, G C; Sheppard, P R; Sieh, K E


    Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.

  15. Constraints on Faulting and Basin Architecture in the North Basin of Lake Malawi from Active-Source Seismic Data (United States)

    Onyango, E. A.; Shillington, D. J.; Accardo, N. J.; Scholz, C. A.; Ebinger, C. J.; Gaherty, J. B.; McCartney, T.; Nyblade, A.; Chindandali, P. R. N.; Kamihanda, G.; Ferdinand, R.; Salima, J.; Mruma, A. H.


    The East African Rift System (EARS) is actively extending as evidenced by seismicity and volcanic activity, and it is a great example of continental rifting. The western branch of the EARS consists of a series of rift basins bound by 100-km-long border faults, with Lake Malawi being the southernmost. Previous studies on Lake Malawi suggest that the border faults accommodate most of the crustal extension and account for most of the seismicity. However, the 2009 Karonga earthquake sequence and other seismicity on intrabasinal faults suggest that they may also be important for crustal extension and hazards. This study uses seismic reflection and wide-angle refraction data from the Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi and Tanzania (SEGMeNT) experiment to constrain detailed basin architecture, shallow velocities, and fault structures of the North Basin of the Malawi Rift. We present results from the main reflection/refraction dip line across the North Basin. Seven lake bottom seismometers (LBS) were spaced at 7 km and recorded shots from a 2580 cu in air gun array fired every 250 m. We recorded multichannel seismic data (MCS) along the same line with a 1500-m-long streamer and a source of 1540 cu in fired every 37.5 m. The LBS also recorded the small volume shots along this line. We picked sedimentary and crustal refractions and reflections using recordings from both shot volumes. We used the First Arrival Seismic Tomography (FAST) code to obtain a smooth velocity model using the first arrivals, and iterative forward modeling was done using the RAYINVR code to produce layered model using both first and later arrivals. Concurrently, the coincident seismic reflection profile was processed using the SeisSpace software package. Preliminary results show sediments in the North basin are thickening Eastward, reaching a thickness of over 4 km adjacent to the Livingstone border fault. Sediments have velocities of 2-3 km/s. The largest intra-basin fault has a substantial

  16. Seismic attribute detection of faults and fluid pathways within an active strike-slip shear zone: New insights from high-resolution 3D P-Cable™ seismic data along the Hosgri Fault, offshore California (United States)

    Kluesner, Jared W.; Brothers, Daniel


    Poststack data conditioning and neural-network seismic attribute workflows are used to detect and visualize faulting and fluid migration pathways within a 13.7 km2 13.7 km2 3D P-Cable™ seismic volume located along the Hosgri Fault Zone offshore central California. The high-resolution 3D volume used in this study was collected in 2012 as part of Pacific Gas and Electric’s Central California Seismic Imaging Project. Three-dimensional seismic reflection data were acquired using a triple-plate boomer source (1.75 kJ) and a short-offset, 14-streamer, P-Cable system. The high-resolution seismic data were processed into a prestack time-migrated 3D volume and publically released in 2014. Postprocessing, we employed dip-steering (dip and azimuth) and structural filtering to enhance laterally continuous events and remove random noise and acquisition artifacts. In addition, the structural filtering was used to enhance laterally continuous edges, such as faults. Following data conditioning, neural-network based meta-attribute workflows were used to detect and visualize faults and probable fluid-migration pathways within the 3D seismic volume. The workflow used in this study clearly illustrates the utility of advanced attribute analysis applied to high-resolution 3D P-Cable data. For example, results from the fault attribute workflow reveal a network of splayed and convergent fault strands within an approximately 1.3 km wide shear zone that is characterized by distinctive sections of transpressional and transtensional dominance. Neural-network chimney attribute calculations indicate that fluids are concentrated along discrete faults in the transtensional zones, but appear to be more broadly distributed amongst fault bounded anticlines and structurally controlled traps in the transpressional zones. These results provide high-resolution, 3D constraints on the relationships between strike-slip fault mechanics, substrate deformation, and fluid migration along an active

  17. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu


    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  18. Laboratory Permeability and Seismic velocity anisotropy measurements across the Alpine Fault, New Zealand (United States)

    Faulkner, D.; Allen, M. J.; Tatham, D.; Mariani, E.; Boulton, C. J.


    The Alpine Fault, a transpressional plate boundary between the Australia-Pacific plates, is known to rupture periodically (200-400yr) with large magnitude earthquakes (Mw~8) and is currently nearing the end of its latest interseismic period. The hydraulic and elastic properties of fault zones influence the nature and style of earthquake rupture and associated processes; investigating these properties in Alpine Fault rocks yields insights into conditions late in the seismic cycle. We present a suite of laboratory permeability and P (Vp) and S (Vs) wave velocity measurements preformed on diverse fault rock lithologies recovered during the first phase of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP-1). DFDP-1 drilled two boreholes reaching depths of 100.6m and 151.4m and retrieved fault rocks from both the hanging wall and footwall, including ultramylonites, ultracomminuted gouges and variably foliated and unfoliated cataclasites. Drilling revealed a typical shallow fault structure: localised principal slip zones (PSZ) of gouge nested within a damage zone overprinted by a zone of alteration, a record of enhanced fluid-rock interaction. Core material was tested in three orthogonal directions, orientated relative to the down core axis and, when present, foliation. Measurements were conducted with pore pressure held at 5MPa over an effective pressure (Peff) range of 5-105MPa, equivalent to pressure conditions down to ~7km depth. Using the Pulse Transient technique permeabilities at Peff=5MPa range from 10-17 to 10-20m2, decreasing to 10-18 to 10-21m2 at Peff=105MPa. Vp and Vs decrease with increased proximity to the PSZ with Vp in the hanging wall spanning 4500-5900m/s, dropping to 3900-4200m/s at the PSZ and then increasing to 4400-5600m/s in the foot wall. Wave velocities and permeability are enhanced parallel to tectonic fabrics e.g. foliation defined by aligned phyllosillicates and quartz- feldspar clasts. These measurements constrain interseismic conditions within the

  19. Fault Lines: Seismicity and the Fracturing of Energy Narratives in Oklahoma (United States)

    Grubert, E.; Drummond, V. A.; Brandt, A. R.


    Fault Lines: Seismicity and the Fracturing of Energy Narratives in Oklahoma Virginia Drummond1, Emily Grubert21Stanford University, Stanford Earth Summer Undergraduate Research Program2Stanford University, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and ResourcesOklahoma is an oil state where residents have historically been supportive of the oil and gas industry. However, a dramatic increase in seismic activity between 2009 and 2015 widely attributed to wastewater injection associated with oil production is a new and highly salient consequence of oil development, affecting local communities' relationship to the environment and to the oil industry. Understanding how seismicity plays into Oklahoma's evolving dialogue about energy is integral to understanding both the current realities and the future of energy communities in Oklahoma.This research engages Oklahoma residents through open-ended interviews and mixed quantitative-qualitative survey research to characterize how energy narratives shape identity in response to conflict between environmental outcomes and economic interest. We perform approximately 20 interviews with residents of Oklahoma, with particular attention to recruiting residents from a wide range of age groups and who work either within or outside the oil and gas industry. General population surveys supplementing detailed interviews with information about community characteristics, social and environmental priorities, and experience with hazards are delivered to residents selected at random from zip codes known to have experienced significant seismicity. We identify narratives used by residents in response to tension between economic and environmental concerns, noting Oklahoma as an interesting case study for how a relatively pro-industry community reacts to and reframes its relationship with energy development, given conflict. In particular, seismicity has fractured the dominant narrative of oil development as positive into new narratives

  20. Geological Identification of Seismic Source at Opak Fault Based on Stratigraphic Sections of the Southern Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hita Pandita


    Full Text Available Earthquake is one of the unpredicted natural disasters on our earth. Despite of the absence of high-accuracy method to precisely predict the occurrence of earthquake, numerous studies have been carried out by seismologists to find it. One of the efforts to address the vulnerability of a region to earthquakes is by recognizing the type of rock as the source of the earthquake. Opak Fault is an active fault which was thought to be the source of earthquakes in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. This study aimed to determine the seismic source types of rocks in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. The methods were by measuring stratigraphic sections and the layer thickness in the western part of Southern Mountains. Field study was done in 6 (six research sites. Results of stratigraphic measurement indicated the sedimentary rocks in the Southern Mountains was 3.823 km in thick, while the bedrock was more than 1.042 km in thick. Based on the result, the rock types as the seismic source were thought to originate from the continental crust rocks formed of granite and metamorphic complex.

  1. Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise (United States)

    Cheng, Xin


    The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

  2. Structure, Kinematics and Origin of Radial Faults: 3D Seismic Observations from the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil (United States)

    Coleman, Alexander; Jackson, Christopher A.-L.


    Salt stock growth is typically accompanied by the development of geometrically and kinematically complex fault networks in the surrounding country rock. The most common networks comprise radial faults; these are characterised by low displacement (stock into flanking strata. Radial faults are commonly observed in an arched, unpierced roof developed above a rising salt stock; in these cases, the faults are typically well-imaged seismically and likely form due to outer-arc extension during overburden stretching. Radial faults are also found at deeper structural levels, in strata flanking the diapir stem; in these cases, they are typically less well-imaged, thus their structure, kinematics and origin are less well understood. Furthermore, understanding the growth of radial faults may provide insights into hydrocarbon reservoir compartmentalisation and the evolution of neighbouring salt stocks. Here, we use high-quality 3D seismic reflection data from the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil to determine the structure and kinematics, and infer the likely origin of exceptionally well-imaged radial faults overlying and flanking a mature salt stock. Furthermore, we compare the geometric (e.g. throw, geometry, spacing, distribution etc.) and kinematic (e.g. timing of formation and duration of activity) characteristics of radial faults at both structural levels, allowing us to infer their temporal relationship and likely origins. We show that radial faults regardless of their structural level typically have aspect ratios of c. 1.8 - 2, are laterally-restricted in the vicinity of the salt, and have lengths of indices of c. 1, with low throw gradients of 0.05 - 0.1 at the upper tip indicate that radial faults were likely blind. Throws range from 5 - 80 ms, with throw-maxima within 1 - 2 radii of the salt diapir. However, we note that the position of the throw maxima is not at the same level for all radial faults. We propose that radial faults nucleate and initially grow as blind

  3. Fault Tree Analysis with Temporal Gates and Model Checking Technique for Qualitative System Safety Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun


    Fault tree analysis (FTA) has suffered from several drawbacks such that it uses only static gates and hence can not capture dynamic behaviors of the complex system precisely, and it is in lack of rigorous semantics, and reasoning process which is to check whether basic events really cause top events is done manually and hence very labor-intensive and time-consuming for the complex systems while it has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry. Although several attempts have been made to overcome this problem, they can not still do absolute or actual time modeling because they adapt relative time concept and can capture only sequential behaviors of the system. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA

  4. SALP-PC - A fault tree code on personal computer for plant safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contini, S.; Poucet, A.


    The interactive program package SALP-PC for fault tree analysis, developed on an Olivetti M24 personal computer (IBM compatible), is written in Fortran-77 to guarantee the maximum portability. It is composed of five processors, implementing the different phases of the fault tree analysis procedure. Allowed logical operators are AND, OR, NOT, K/N, XOR and INH. Boundary conditions can also be defined to obtain fault trees conditioned to the state of one or more components. The possibility to define incompatible events is also allowed. An extensive check on input data is performed. At each step of the analysis the user can restart, with modified input parameters, without having to repeat the previous steps. The minimal cut sets (MCSs) are obtained by reducing the tree according to the bottom-up technique. To save computer time the approach of determining only the most significant MCSs has been adopted, which implies the assessment of an estimate of the contribution of the non significant MCSs to the system failure. Other methods have been implemented to reduce both computer time and memory space as, for instance, the modularization and the application of the minimization procedure only when strictly necessary. This paper contains the description of the main characteristics of the program, the analysis procedure on which it is based and the developments being carried out. (author). 2 refs, 3 figs, 1 tab

  5. The Rock Record of Seismic Nucleation: examples from pseudotachylites beneath the Whipple Detachment Fault, eastern California (United States)

    Ortega-Arroyo, D.; Behr, W. M.; Gentry, E.


    The mechanisms that lead to nucleation and dynamic weakening in the middle crust are not well understood. Proposed mechanisms include flash heating of asperities, thermal pressurization of pore fluids, dynamic instabilities, and fracture interactions. We investigate this issue in the rock record using exhumed mid-crustal rocks exposed beneath the Whipple Detachment fault (WDF) in eastern CA. Analysis of pseudotachylites (PS) beneath the WDF, representing paleo-earthquakes, reveal two types: Type 1 PS exhibit little to no precursory cataclasis and are concentrated along shear bands at the margins of feldspar-rich lenses embedded in more quartz-rich domains. These appear synkinematic with S-C fabrics in the surrounding mylonites and they exhibit finely dynamically recrystallized grains in quartz at their margins, suggesting coeval ductile deformation. By contrast, Type 2 PS occur along the principal slip surface of a brittle shear zone and show evidence for precursory cataclasis, brecciation, and fracturing. Some cataclasites inject into the host rock, forming eddies along the boundary with the PS. Slip appears to localize progressively into a 2 cm thick fault core, with PS concentrated primarily in the interior- the presence of solidified melt and fluidized cataclasite as clasts within the fault core suggests multiple slip events are preserved. We interpret the two types of pseudotachylites to represent different conditions and mechanisms of earthquake nucleation near the brittle-ductile transition (BDT). Type 1 PS are interpreted to represent nucleation in deeper sections of the BDT by failure along mineralogically-controlled stress concentrations hosted within an otherwise viscously deforming mylonite. Our data suggest that these do not develop into large-magnitude EQ's because seismic slip is dampened into the surrounding quartz-rich viscous matrix; instead they may represent deep microseismicity and/or seismic tremor. By contrast, Type 2 PS are interpreted to

  6. Mapping a buried Quaternary valley and pre-Quaternary faults through seismic methods in Copenhagen, Denmark. (United States)

    Martinez, Kerim; Alfredo Mendoza, Jose; Henrik, Olsen


    Limited knowledge of the subsurface geology motivates the use of geophysical techniques before large engineering projects are conducted. These applications are normally restricted to satisfy the project aims, like mapping the near surface sediments, unconsolidated rocks and/or geological structures that may affect the construction locally. However, the applications can also contribute to the general knowledge of the regional geology around the location of interest. This report highlights the mapping of a buried Quaternary valley and identification of regional faults by a reflection and refraction seismic survey performed in Copenhagen. A 13.9 Km seismic survey was carried out at Copenhagen city along six crooked lines in order to determine the velocity fields in the near subsurface segment of a planned metro line and reflection patterns in deeper levels. The aim of the survey was to collect information needed for designing the underground metro. In particular it was sought to map the interface between Quaternary sedimentary layers of clay, till and sand, and the underlying layers of Palaeogene limestone found between 7 and 40 m below the ground surface. The data acquisition was carried out using a 192 channels array, receiver groups with 5 m spacing and a Vibroseis as a source at 5 m spacing following a roll along technique to complete the survey spreads. The urban environment demanded extensive survey planning including traffic control, notifications to residents and a fluent coordination with municipal authorities in order to minimize disturbances and ensure data acquisition. The reflection data was processed under a conventional scheme and the refraction data was interpreted using a non-linear traveltime tomography algorithm. The reflection results indicate the presence of faults oriented NW-SE to NNW-SSE affecting the limestone sequences. The faults may be associated to the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone at the transition between the Danish Basin and the Baltic

  7. Carbonate hosted fault rocks: A review of structural and microstructural characteristic with implications for seismicity in the upper crust (United States)

    Delle Piane, Claudio; Clennell, M. Ben; Keller, Joao V. A.; Giwelli, Ausama; Luzin, Vladimir


    The structure, frictional properties and permeability of faults within carbonate rocks exhibit a dynamic interplay that controls both seismicity and the exchange of fluid between different crustal levels. Here we review field and experimental studies focused on the characterization of fault zones in carbonate rocks with the aim of identifying the microstructural indicators of rupture nucleation and seismic slip. We highlight results from experimental research linked to observations on exhumed fault zones in carbonate rocks. From the analysis of these accumulated results we identify the meso and microstructural deformation styles in carbonates rocks and link them to the lithology of the protolith and their potential as seismic indicators. Although there has been significant success in the laboratory reproduction of deformation structures observed in the field, the range of slip rates and dynamic friction under which most of the potential seismic indicators is formed in the laboratory urges caution when using them as a diagnostic for seismic slip. We finally outline what we think are key topics for future research that would lead to a more in-depth understanding of the record of seismic slip in carbonate rocks.

  8. Fracturing, fluid-rock interaction and mineralisation during the seismic cycle along the Alpine Fault (United States)

    Williams, Jack N.; Toy, Virginia G.; Smith, Steven A. F.; Boulton, Carolyn


    The Alpine Fault has a Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction, we document the habitat and mineralising phases of macro- and micro-fractures within the alteration zone using samples derived from outcrop and the Deep Fault Drilling Project. Veins predominantly contain calcite, chlorite, K-feldspar or muscovite. Gouge-filled fractures are also observed and reflect filling from mechanical wear and chlorite mineralisation. CL imaging suggests that each calcite vein was opened and sealed in one episode, possibly corresponding to a single seismic cycle. The thermal stability of mineralising phases and their mutually cross-cutting relationships indicates a cyclic history of fracture opening and mineralisation that extends throughout the seismogenic zone. Cataclasites contain intragranular veins that are hosted within quartzofeldspathic clasts, as well as veins that cross-cut clasts and the surrounding matrix. Intragranular calcite veins formed prior to or during cataclasis. Cross-cutting veins are interpreted to have formed by fracturing of relatively indurated cataclasites after near-surface slip localisation within the Alpine Fault's principal slip zone gouges (PSZs). These observations clearly demonstrate that shear strain is most localised in the shallowest part of the seismogenic zone.

  9. Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco


    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including

  10. Tree-ring 14C links seismic swarm to CO2 spike at Yellowstone, USA (United States)

    Evans, William C.; Bergfeld, D.; McGeehin, J.P.; King, J.C.; Heasler, H.


    Mechanisms to explain swarms of shallow seismicity and inflation-deflation cycles at Yellowstone caldera (western United States) commonly invoke episodic escape of magma-derived brines or gases from the ductile zone, but no correlative changes in the surface efflux of magmatic constituents have ever been documented. Our analysis of individual growth rings in a tree core from the Mud Volcano thermal area within the caldera links a sharp ~25% drop in 14C to a local seismic swarm in 1978. The implied fivefold increase in CO2 emissions clearly associates swarm seismicity with upflow of magma-derived fluid and shows that pulses of magmatic CO2 can rapidly traverse the 5-kmthick brittle zone, even through Yellowstone's enormous hydrothermal reservoir. The 1978 event predates annual deformation surveys, but recognized connections between subsequent seismic swarms and changes in deformation suggest that CO2 might drive both processes. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

  11. SAFTAC, Monte-Carlo Fault Tree Simulation for System Design Performance and Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetti, P.A.; Garcia de Viedma, L.


    1 - Description of problem or function: SAFTAC is a Monte Carlo fault tree simulation program that provides a systematic approach for analyzing system design, performing trade-off studies, and optimizing system changes or additions. 2 - Method of solution: SAFTAC assumes an exponential failure distribution for basic input events and a choice of either Gaussian distributed or constant repair times. The program views the system represented by the fault tree as a statistical assembly of independent basic input events, each characterized by an exponential failure distribution and, if used, a constant or normal repair distribution. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The program is dimensioned to handle 1100 basic input events and 1100 logical gates. It can be re-dimensioned to handle up to 2000 basic input events and 2000 logical gates within the existing core memory

  12. The use of fault tree analysis to minimize research reactor downtime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, B.; Wang, C.H.; Anderson, T.V.


    For many reasons it is often highly desirable to maintain a research reactor in a continuously operable state and in the event of any failures to minimize the length of the reactor downtime. In order to keep the length of future downtimes to less than ten days for the sixteen year old OSU TRIGA reactor, a fault tree analysis was performed for all of the systems required to maintain the reactor operational. As a result of this analysis, it was possible to determine the critical parts and key components. By examining the availability and delivery times for each of these items, it was then possible to make reasoned decisions relating to the advance purchase of spare parts. This paper outlines the above process, along with examples of fault trees developed, and a recent history of the efficacy of this technique. (author)

  13. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.


    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  14. Algorithms and programs for evaluating fault trees with multi-state components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickenhaeuser, A.


    Part 1 and 2 of the report contain a summary overview of methods and algorithms for the solution of fault tree analysis problems. The following points are treated in detail: Treatment of fault tree components with more than two states. Acceleration of the solution algorithms. Decomposition and modularization of extensive systems. Calculation of the structural function and the exact occurrence probability. Treatment of statistical dependencies. A flexible tool to be employed in solving these problems is the method of forming Boolean variables with restrictions. In this way, components with more than two states can be treated, the possibilities of forming modules expanded, and statistical dependencies treated. Part 3 contains descriptions of the MUSTAFA, MUSTAMO, PASPI, and SIMUST computer programs based on these methods. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Safeguards assurance analysis: a practical application of the fault tree technique in safeguards design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, R.E.; Condon, C.R.; Newmaker, R.J.


    Safeguards Assurance Analysis is a method to assist in the design and evaluation of safeguards systems. It can be applied to a facility before, during, or after construction. Before construction, it provides continuity throughout the design and evolution of the facility. It also provides a systematic means of selecting and evaluating the safeguard components for the system when the design and layout are complete. Generic models for the design and evaluation of safeguards systems to meet ERDA/NRC requirements for the protection of Special Nuclear Material have been developed, utilizing the Fault (Event) Tree technique. The technique allows the analysis of a conceptual or existing safeguards system in the context of conceivable threats to assure that the capability of the system meets design and regulatory requirements. The Fault Tree methodology also provides a structure for trade-off analyses to give a maximum cost effectiveness of the safeguards system within the design constraints

  16. A Study on Landslide Risk Management by Applying Fault Tree Logics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazmi Danish


    Full Text Available Slope stability is one of the focal areas of curiosity to geotechnical designers and also appears logical for the application of probabilistic approaches since the analysis lead to a “probability of failure”. Assessment of the existing slopes in relation with risks seems to be more meaningful when concerning with landslides. Probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA is the best option in covering the landslides events. The intent here is to bid a probabilistic framework for quantified risk analysis with human uncertainties. In this regard, Fault Tree Analysis is utilized and for prediction of risk levels, consequences of the failures of the reference landslides have been taken. It is concluded that logics of fault trees is best fit, to clinch additional categories of uncertainty; like human, organizational, and knowledge related. In actual, the approach has been used in bringing together engineering and management performances and personnel, to produce reliability in slope engineering practices.

  17. Using SETS to find minimal cut sets in large fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, R.B.; Stack, D.W.


    An efficient algebraic algorithm for finding the minimal cut sets for a large fault tree was defined and a new procedure which implements the algorithm was added to the Set Equation Transformation System (SETS). The algorithm includes the identification and separate processing of independent subtrees, the coalescing of consecutive gates of the same kind, the creation of additional independent subtrees, and the derivation of the fault tree stem equation in stages. The computer time required to determine the minimal cut sets using these techniques is shown to be substantially less than the computer time required to determine the minimal cut sets when these techniques are not employed. It is shown for a given example that the execution time required to determine the minimal cut sets can be reduced from 7,686 seconds to 7 seconds when all of these techniques are employed

  18. Selection the Optimum Suppliers Compound Using a Mixed Model of MADM and Fault Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Azimian


    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach of MADM and fault tree analysis (FTA is provided for determining the most reliable combination of suppliers for a strategic product in IUT University. At first, risks of suppliers is estimated by defining the indices for evaluating them, determining their relative status indices and using satisfying and SAW methods. Then, intrinsic risks of utilized equipments in the products are qualified and the final integrated risk for equipments is determined. Finally, through all the different scenarios, the best composition of equipment suppliers is selected by defining the palpable top events and fault tree analysis. The contribution of this paper is about proposing an integrated method of MADM and FTA to determine the most reliable suppliers in order to minimize the final risk of providing a product.

  19. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas


    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  20. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)


    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  1. Fractal properties and simulation of micro-seismicity for seismic hazard analysis: a comparison of North Anatolian and San Andreas Fault Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naside Ozer


    Full Text Available We analyzed statistical properties of earthquakes in western Anatolia as well as the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ in terms of spatio-temporal variations of fractal dimensions, p- and b-values. During statistically homogeneous periods characterized by closer fractal dimension values, we propose that occurrence of relatively larger shocks (M >= 5.0 is unlikely. Decreases in seismic activity in such intervals result in spatial b-value distributions that are primarily stable. Fractal dimensions decrease with time in proportion to increasing seismicity. Conversely, no spatiotemporal patterns were observed for p-value changes. In order to evaluate failure probabilities and simulate earthquake occurrence in the western NAFZ, we applied a modified version of the renormalization group method. Assuming an increase in small earthquakes is indicative of larger shocks, we apply the mentioned model to micro-seismic (M<= 3.0 activity, and test our results using San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ data. We propose that fractal dimension is a direct indicator of material heterogeneity and strength. Results from a model suggest simulated and observed earthquake occurrences are coherent, and may be used for seismic hazard estimation on creeping strike-slip fault zones.

  2. A new multilayered visco-elasto-plastic experimental model to study strike-slip fault seismic cycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caniven, Y.; Dominguez, S.; Soliva, R.; Cattin, R.; Peyret, M.; Marchandon, M.; Romano, C.; Strak, V.


    Nowadays, technological advances in satellite imagery measurements as well as the development of dense geodetic and seismologic networks allow for a detailed analysis of surface deformation associated with active fault seismic cycle. However, the study of earthquake dynamics faces several limiting

  3. Determination of Seismic Activity on the Main Marmara Fault with GPS Measurements (United States)

    Alkan, M. N.; Alkan, R. M.; Yavaşoğlu, H.; Köse, Z.; Aladoğan, K.; Özbey, V.


    The tectonic plates that creates the Earth have always been an important topic to work on for Geosciences. Plate motion affecting the Earth's crust have occurred for millions of years. This slow but continuous movement that has been going on for millions of years can only be followed by instrumental measurements. In recent years, this process has been done with GPS very accurately. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major right-lateral, strike-slip fault that extends more than 1200 km extends along all North Anatolia from Bingol to Saros Gulf. The NAFZ is divided into Southern and Northern Branches to the east of Marmara region that several destructive earthquakes occurred, such as Izmit (in 1999, Mw=7.4) and Duzce (in 1999, Mw=7.2) in the last century. MMF (Main Marmara Fault) which is the part of the Northern Branch in the Marmara Sea, starting in from the Gulf of Izmit-Adapazarı and reaching the Gulf of Saros. The determination of the deformation accumulated on the MMF has become extremely important especially after the 1999 Izmit earthquake. According to the recent studies, the MMF is the largest unbroken part of the fault and is divided into segments. These segments are Cinarcik, Prince Island, Central Marmara and Tekirdag. Recent studies have demonstrated that the Prince Island segment is fully locked. However, studies that are focused on the Central Marmara segment, that is located offshore Istanbul, a giant metropole that has more than 14 million populations, do not conclude about the presence of a seismic gap, capable of generating a big earthquake. Therefore, in the scope of this study, a new GPS network was established at short and long distance from the Main Marmara Fault, to densify the existing GPS network. 3 campaign GPS measurements were done in 2015, 2016, 2017. The evaluation of the datasets were done by GAMIT/GLOBK software. For the evaluation, 30 continuous observation stations, 14 stations connected to the IGS network and 16 stations

  4. PREP KITT, System Reliability by Fault Tree Analysis. PREP, Min Path Set and Min Cut Set for Fault Tree Analysis, Monte-Carlo Method. KITT, Component and System Reliability Information from Kinetic Fault Tree Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Narum, R.E.


    1 - Description of problem or function: The PREP/KITT computer program package obtains system reliability information from a system fault tree. The PREP program finds the minimal cut sets and/or the minimal path sets of the system fault tree. (A minimal cut set is a smallest set of components such that if all the components are simultaneously failed the system is failed. A minimal path set is a smallest set of components such that if all of the components are simultaneously functioning the system is functioning.) The KITT programs determine reliability information for the components of each minimal cut or path set, for each minimal cut or path set, and for the system. Exact, time-dependent reliability information is determined for each component and for each minimal cut set or path set. For the system, reliability results are obtained by upper bound approximations or by a bracketing procedure in which various upper and lower bounds may be obtained as close to one another as desired. The KITT programs can handle independent components which are non-repairable or which have a constant repair time. Any assortment of non-repairable components and components having constant repair times can be considered. Any inhibit conditions having constant probabilities of occurrence can be handled. The failure intensity of each component is assumed to be constant with respect to time. The KITT2 program can also handle components which during different time intervals, called phases, may have different reliability properties. 2 - Method of solution: The PREP program obtains minimal cut sets by either direct deterministic testing or by an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. The minimal path sets are obtained using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The reliability information is obtained by the KITT programs from numerical solution of the simple integral balance equations of kinetic tree theory. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PREP program will obtain the minimal cut and

  5. Seismicity Controlled by a Frictional Afterslip During a Small-Magnitude Seismic Sequence (ML < 5) on the Chihshang Fault, Taiwan (United States)

    Canitano, Alexandre; Godano, Maxime; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lee, Hsin-Ming; Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn


    We report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths (about 5 to 7 km) during a small-magnitude seismic sequence (with ML<5) along the Chihshang Fault, a main active structure of the Longitudinal Valley, in southeast Taiwan. The afterslip, which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer, lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4.8 ± 0.2. The afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence. The first postseismic stage, which followed a ML 4.6 earthquake, lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities (e.g., multiplets) near the hypocenter. Then, a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ML 4.9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep. The study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5. Furthermore, the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Ruzhich


    Full Text Available Field experiments were carried out using TRIBO, a specially designed testing stand including a concrete plate that can be moved at different rates. In our experiment, the plate served as an artificial allochtonous wing placed at the uneven surface of the segment of the Angarsky fault in Pribaikalie. Tribological effects of contact interaction of the uneven surfaces in the zone of sliding movements of the plate were recorded by strain gauges, linear displacement gauges and four Baikal-7HR seismic stations; such stations are commonly used for earthquake recording. The effect of shocks in initiation of seismic oscillation sources was studied with changes of the regimes of destruction of the uneven surfaces (underneath the base of the plate which differ in size and strength. The study was focused on stages in the process of friction at preparation to transition from quasi-regular decelerated sliding movement of the plate to its breakaway and occurrence of a high-energy seismic impulse.The applied method of large-scale modelling at natural objects in field provides new data that may prove useful for stu­dies of mechanisms causing seismicity, identification of stages in occurrence of earthquakes in fault zones and interpretation of seismic monitoring data. Results of such physical tests can contribute to the development of methods aimed at forecasting of rock shocks and earthquakes and also for the development of new physical models showing formation of earthquake foci of various scales in tectonic faults.

  7. Hydraulic Fracture Induced Seismicity During A Multi-Stage Pad Completion in Western Canada: Evidence of Activation of Multiple, Parallel Faults (United States)

    Maxwell, S.; Garrett, D.; Huang, J.; Usher, P.; Mamer, P.


    Following reports of injection induced seismicity in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, regulators have imposed seismic monitoring and traffic light protocols for fracturing operations in specific areas. Here we describe a case study in one of these reservoirs, the Montney Shale in NE British Columbia, where induced seismicity was monitored with a local array during multi-stage hydraulic fracture stimulations on several wells from a single drilling pad. Seismicity primarily occurred during the injection time periods, and correlated with periods of high injection rates and wellhead pressures above fracturing pressures. Sequential hydraulic fracture stages were found to progressively activate several parallel, critically-stressed faults, as illuminated by multiple linear hypocenter patterns in the range between Mw 1 and 3. Moment tensor inversion of larger events indicated a double-couple mechanism consistent with the regional strike-slip stress state and the hypocenter lineations. The critically-stressed faults obliquely cross the well paths which were purposely drilled parallel to the minimum principal stress direction. Seismicity on specific faults started and stopped when fracture initiation points of individual injection stages were proximal to the intersection of the fault and well. The distance ranges when the seismicity occurs is consistent with expected hydraulic fracture dimensions, suggesting that the induced fault slip only occurs when a hydraulic fracture grows directly into the fault and the faults are temporarily exposed to significantly elevated fracture pressures during the injection. Some faults crossed multiple wells and the seismicity was found to restart during injection of proximal stages on adjacent wells, progressively expanding the seismogenic zone of the fault. Progressive fault slip is therefore inferred from the seismicity migrating further along the faults during successive injection stages. An accelerometer was also deployed close

  8. Application of fault tree methodology to modeling of the AP1000 plant digital reactor protection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teolis, D.S.; Zarewczynski, S.A.; Detar, H.L.


    The reactor trip system (RTS) and engineered safety features actuation system (ESFAS) in nuclear power plants utilizes instrumentation and control (IC) to provide automatic protection against unsafe and improper reactor operation during steady-state and transient power operations. During normal operating conditions, various plant parameters are continuously monitored to assure that the plant is operating in a safe state. In response to deviations of these parameters from pre-determined set points, the protection system will initiate actions required to maintain the reactor in a safe state. These actions may include shutting down the reactor by opening the reactor trip breakers and actuation of safety equipment based on the situation. The RTS and ESFAS are represented in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to reflect the impact of their contribution to core damage frequency (CDF). The reactor protection systems (RPS) in existing nuclear power plants are generally analog based and there is general consensus within the PRA community on fault tree modeling of these systems. In new plants, such as AP1000 plant, the RPS is based on digital technology. Digital systems are more complex combinations of hardware components and software. This combination of complex hardware and software can result in the presence of faults and failure modes unique to a digital RPS. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently performing research on the development of probabilistic models for digital systems for inclusion in PRAs; however, no consensus methodology exists at this time. Westinghouse is currently updating the AP1000 plant PRA to support initial operation of plants currently under construction in the United States. The digital RPS is modeled using fault tree methodology similar to that used for analog based systems. This paper presents high level descriptions of a typical analog based RPS and of the AP1000 plant digital RPS. Application of current fault

  9. Fault analysis in the very shallow seismic reflection method; Gokusenso jishin hanshaho ni okeru danso kaiseki. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagumo, S.; Muraoka, S.; Kaida, Y.; Takahashi, T. [OYO Corp., Tokyo (Japan)


    To effectively use the very shallow seismic reflection for active fault survey, a method has been investigated by which fault structures can be appropriately reconstructed from the fault information detected in the original records. The first step of reconstructing the fault system from the travel time reflection curve was to grasp an outline of fault structure from the patterns of travel time curve observed in the original record. For the very shallow seismic reflection method, especially, the low velocity layers in a shallow part succeeding from the ground surface made the issue complicated. Then, the travel time reflection curves were calculated in the case of existing several horizontal reflection surfaces in the surface layer. The constant values, mean velocities to the depth at individual reflection surfaces were used for the approximation of velocities. The outline of fault structure was grasped from the observation of original record. Then, the structure was reconstructed from the travel time curves. When the mean velocity in the medium was known, reconstruction of the feature of reflection surfaces from the travel time curves could be determined by simple mapping. When the mean velocity was unknown, it was calculated using the reciprocal travel time from the common reflection surface for individual reflection surfaces. 7 figs.

  10. Application of Post-stack migration to seismic data associated with fault structures (United States)

    Koduru, Anitha; Mohanty, P. R.


    In hydrocarbon exploration, wave-equation migration techniques play an important role in imaging the complex geological structures. Usually, post-stack migration scheme is applied to the seismic data to improve the resolution with restoration of dipping reflectors to their true position. As a result, the migrated time sections are interpretable in terms of subsurface features. As a numerical study, three fault models are considered for the present study. First of all, synthetic time sections are generated corresponding to three models. Later, post stack migration schemes such as Gazdag(PS), Phase-shift with turning rays and reverse time migration (T-K) domain techniques are applied in order to judge the imaging accuracy, preservation of true amplitude and computational speed. All the three post stack time migrated sections delineate the structure with their throw.However, the reverse time migrations (T-K) clearly delineate the reflectors in restoring the throw properly with minimum computational time. In order to test the validity the numerical results, similar exercise has been undertaken using field seismic data of KG basin, India. The results indicates that the field migrated sections are imaged. But, the reverse time migration (T-K ) provides the best subsurface image with restoration of reflectors and collapse of diffracted events with least computational time. Gazdag (PS) and Phase-Shift with turning migrated section shows the reduction of amplitude whereas, the reverse time migration preserved the amplitude fully.

  11. Seismic Experiment at North Arizona To Locate Washington Fault - 3D Field Test

    KAUST Repository

    Hanafy, Sherif M


    No. of receivers in the inline direction: 80, Number of lines: 6, Receiver Interval: 1 m near the fault, 2 m away from the fault (Receivers 1 to 12 at 2 m intervals, receivers 12 to 51 at 1 m intervals, and receivers 51 to 80 at 2 m intervals), No. of shots in the inline direction: 40, Shot interval: 2 and 4 m (every other receiver location). Data Recording The data are recorded using two Bison equipment, each is 120 channels. We shot at all 240 shot locations and simultaneously recorded seismic traces at receivers 1 to 240 (using both Bisons), then we shot again at all 240 shot locations and we recorded at receivers 241 to 480. The data is rearranged to match the receiver order shown in Figure 3 where receiver 1 is at left-lower corner, receivers increase to 80 at right lower corner, then receiver 81 is back to left side at Y = 1.5 m, etc.

  12. Mud volcano monitoring and seismic events along the North Anatolian Fault (Sea of Marmara) (United States)

    Javad Fallahi, Mohammad; Lupi, Matteo; Mazzini, Adriano; Polonia, Alina; D'Alessandro, Antonino; D'Anna, Giuseppe; Gasperini, Luca


    The Sea of Marmara, a pull-apart basin formed along the northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system, is considered a seismic gap, that will be filled in the next decades by a large magnitude (M>7) earthquake, close to the Istanbul Metropolitan area (12 million inhabitants). For this reason, several marine geological and geophysical studies have been carried out in this region, starting from the destructive 1999 Mw 7.4 Izmit earthquake, to gather information relative to seismogenic potential of major fault strands. Together with these studies, in the frame of EC projects (i.e., MarmESONET and Marsite, among others), an intensive program of long-term monitoring of seismogenic faults was carried out using seafloor observatories deployed during several expeditions led by Italian, French and Turkish groups. These expeditions included MARM2013, on board of the R/V Urania, of the Italian CNR, when four ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) were deployed in the central part of the Sea of Marmara, at depths between 550 and 1000 m. One of the main aims of the experiment was to assess the long-term seismic activity along an active segment of the NAF, which connects the central and the western basins (depocenters), where the principal deformation zone appears relatively narrow and almost purely strike-slip. The present study shows the results of processing and analysis of continuous data records from these OBS stations during 50 days. We were able to detect seismic signal produced by an active mud volcano located close to the NAF trace, from about 3 to 6 km of distance from the OBS stations. Additionally, we captured the May 24, 2014, Mw 6.9 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the northern Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey, which caused serious damage on the Turkish island of Imbros and the cities of Edirne and Çanakkale, as well as on the Greek island of Lemnos. The earthquake nucleated on the westward continuation of the NAF system in the NE Aegean Sea, and was

  13. Crustal Extensional Faulting Triggered by the 2010 Chilean Earthquake: The Pichilemu Seismic Sequence (United States)

    Comte, D.; Farias, M.; Roecker, S. W.; Carrizo, D.


    The MW =8.8 south-central Chilean earthquake occurred on February 27th , 2010 is one of the largest event recorded by modern seismology. Its rupture area, located along the interplate contact between Nazca and South America was about 500 × 140 km2, striking parallel to the coast of South America and extending to about 45 km depth. Somewhat surprisingly, although there have been numerous aftershocks in the rupture zone, none of them has had a magnitude Mw greater than 6.5, except the one observed on January 2nd, 2011, almost one year after the mainshock, located in the southern edge of the rupture zone. The first largest aftershocks, (Mw=6.9 and Mw=7.0), occurred within 15 minutes of each other on 11 March 2010 within the overriding South American plate at the northern tip of the rupture zone near the city of Pichilemu. These events are part of a sequence of normal faulting activated by the Maule earthquake. The purpose of this study is to document the first well-recorded case of forearc faulting due to a subduction megathrust earthquake in the Andean region. We combine evidence from local seismicity, Global Centroid-Moment Tensor (gCMT) focal solutions, and geological-geomorphological observations to provide some context for the 11 March sequence in the framework of the 27 February megathrust. We hypothesize that the megathrust earthquake produced alterations on the stress field, enhancing fluid circulation in the forearc, which finally triggered intraplate faulting in regions of pre-existing crustal weakness. In this study, we focus on the sequence of events associated with the March 11th aftershocks, which we name the Pichilemu seismic sequence, in particular on a swarm of 350 events with M > 4 that occurred within the first 24 hours after the largest aftershocks, and the two largest subsequent events, a Mw=5.9 and a Mw=5.3 that occurred on May 2nd and May 21th, 2010 respectively. The hypocenters located in our final 3D model body-wave velocity model, define a

  14. New Geologic Data on the Seismic Risks of the Most Dangerous Fault on Shore in Central Japan, the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System (United States)

    Okumura, K.; Kondo, H.; Toda, S.; Takada, K.; Kinoshita, H.


    Ten years have past since the first official assessment of the long-term seismic risks of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line active fault system (ISTL) in 1996. The disaster caused by the1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken-Nanbu) earthquake urged the Japanese government to initiated a national project to assess the long-term seismic risks of on-shore active faults using geologic information. ISTL was the first target of the 98 significant faults and the probability of a M7 to M8 event turned out to be the highest among them. After the 10 years of continued efforts to understand the ISTL, now it is getting ready to revise the assessment. Fault mapping and segmentation: The most active segment of the Gofukuji fault (~1 cm/yr left-lateral strike slip, R=500~800 yrs.) had been maped only for less than 10 km. Adjacent segments were much less active. This large slip on such a short segment was contradictory. However, detailed topographic study including Lidar survey revealed the length of the Gofukuji fault to be 25 km or more. High slip rate with frequent earthquakes may be restricted to the Gofukuji fault while the 1996 assessment modeled frequent >100 km rupture scenario. The geometry of the fault is controversial especially on the left-lateral strike-slip section of the ISTL. There are two models of high-angle Middel ISTL and low-angle Middle ISTL with slip partitioning. However, all geomorphic and shallow geologic data supports high-angle almost pure strike slip on the faults in the Middle ISTL. CRIEPI's 3- dimensional trenching in several sites as well as the previous results clearly demonstrated repeated pure strike-slip offset during past a few events. In Middle ISTL, there is no evidence of recent activity of pre-existing low-angle thrust faults that are inferred to be active from shallow seismic survey. Separation of high (~3000 m) mountain ranges and low (earthquakes. In order to solve this problem, we have carried out intensive geoslicer and boring survey of buried faults

  15. Improving reliability of state estimation programming and computing suite based on analyzing a fault tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolosok Irina


    Full Text Available Reliable information on the current state parameters obtained as a result of processing the measurements from systems of the SCADA and WAMS data acquisition and processing through methods of state estimation (SE is a condition that enables to successfully manage an energy power system (EPS. SCADA and WAMS systems themselves, as any technical systems, are subject to failures and faults that lead to distortion and loss of information. The SE procedure enables to find erroneous measurements, therefore, it is a barrier for the distorted information to penetrate into control problems. At the same time, the programming and computing suite (PCS implementing the SE functions may itself provide a wrong decision due to imperfection of the software algorithms and errors. In this study, we propose to use a fault tree to analyze consequences of failures and faults in SCADA and WAMS and in the very SE procedure. Based on the analysis of the obtained measurement information and on the SE results, we determine the state estimation PCS fault tolerance level featuring its reliability.

  16. Interactive system design using the complementarity of axiomatic design and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Do, Sung Hee; Lee, Tae Sik


    To efficiently design safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants, with requirement of high reliability, methodologies allowing for rigorous interactions between the synthesis and analysis processes have been proposed. This paper attempts to develop a reliability-centered design framework through an interactive process between Axiomatic Design (AD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Integrating AD and FTA into a single framework appears to be a viable solution, as they compliment each other with their unique advantages. AD provides a systematic synthesis tool while FTA is commonly used as a safety analysis tool. These methodologies build a design process that is less subjective, and they enable designers to develop insights that lead to solutions with improved reliability. Due to the nature of the two methodologies, the information involved in each process is complementary: a success tree versus a fault tree. Thus, at each step a system using AD is synthesized, and its reliability is then quantified using the FT derived from the AD synthesis process. The converted FT provides an opportunity to examine the completeness of the outcome from the synthesis process. This study presents an example of the design of a Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS). A case study illustrates the process of designing the CHRS with an interactive design framework focusing on the conversion of the AD process to FTA

  17. The Role of Faulting on the Growth of a Carbonate Platform: Evidence from 3D Seismic Analysis and Section Restoration (United States)

    Nur Fathiyah Jamaludin, Siti; Pubellier, Manuel; Prasad Ghosh, Deva; Menier, David; Pierson, Bernard


    Tectonics in addition to other environmental factors impacts the growth of carbonate platforms and plays an important role in shaping the internal architecture of the platforms. Detailed of faults and fractures development and healing in carbonate environment have not been explored sufficiently. Using 3D seismic and well data, we attempt to reconstruct the structural evolution of a Miocene carbonate platform in Central Luconia Province, offshore Malaysia. Luconia Province is located in the NW coast of Borneo and has become one of the largest carbonate factories in SE Asia. Seismic interpretations including seismic attribute analysis are applied to the carbonate platform to discern its sedimentology and structural details. Detailed seismic interpretations highlight the relationships of carbonate deposition with syn-depositional faulting. Branching conjugate faults are common in this carbonate platform and have become a template for reef growth, attesting lateral facies changes within the carbonate environments. Structural restoration was then appropriately performed on the interpreted seismic sections based on sequential restoration techniques, and provided images different from those of horizon flattening methods. This permits us to compensate faults' displacement, remove recent sediment layers and finally restore the older rock units prior to the fault motions. It allows prediction of platform evolution as a response to faulting before and after carbonate deposition and also enhances the pitfalls of interpretation. Once updated, the reconstructions allow unravelling of the un-seen geological features underneath the carbonate platform, such as paleo-structures and paleo-topography which in turn reflects the paleo-environment before deformations took place. Interestingly, sections balancing and restoration revealed the late-phase (Late Oligocene-Early Miocene) rifting of South China Sea, otherwise difficult to visualize on seismic sections. Later it is shown that

  18. Block-and-fault dynamics modelling of the Himalayan frontal arc: Implications for seismic cycle, slip deficit, and great earthquakes (United States)

    Vorobieva, Inessa; Mandal, Prantik; Gorshkov, Alexander


    A numerical block-and-fault dynamics model (BAFD) of the Himalayan frontal arc, India is developed to understand the long-term patterns of strain accumulation and occurrences of great earthquakes in the Himalaya. The morphostructural scheme outlines twelve major crustal blocks, and external driving motions are prescribed using GPS data. The BAFD model reproduces essential features of the geodynamics and seismicity of the Himalayan frontal arc. The locations of the large synthetic earthquakes and their maximum magnitudes are consistent with the information available from the instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues. We model the evolution of the slip deficit and seismic cycles for different sections across the Himalaya frontal arc. The modelled seismic cycles are found to be varying from 700 to 2100 years and are in good agreement with the return periods estimates from the recent paleoseismological studies. We notice that the accumulation of the slip deficit depends not only on the rate of shortening, rheology and structure but also on the dynamics of the confining crustal blocks. Further, we observe that tectonic motions of the Shillong plateau and Assam basin microplates play a significant role in controlling the seismicity patterns of the Bhutan block, which resulted in the decreased seismic activity, and increased rate of aseismic displacement. Thus, we infer that the regional seismicity patterns are a consequence of dynamics of the entire regional fault-and-block system rather than dynamics of individual fault. Our BAFD modelling predicts the maximum earthquake hazard associated with future large/great earthquakes for the central Himalayan gap region, which lies between the 1905 Kangra and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake ruptures, but relatively less hazard in Kashmir and Assam.

  19. High-Resolution Seismic-Reflection and Marine Magnetic Data Along the Hosgri Fault Zone, Central California (United States)

    Sliter, Ray W.; Triezenberg, Peter J.; Hart, Patrick E.; Watt, Janet T.; Johnson, Samuel Y.; Scheirer, Daniel S.


    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected high-resolution shallow seismic-reflection and marine magnetic data in June 2008 in the offshore areas between the towns of Cayucos and Pismo Beach, Calif., from the nearshore (~6-m depth) to just west of the Hosgri Fault Zone (~200-m depth). These data are in support of the California State Waters Mapping Program and the Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and the U.S. Geological Survey. Seismic-reflection and marine magnetic data were acquired aboard the R/V Parke Snavely, using a SIG 2Mille minisparker seismic source and a Geometrics G882 cesium-vapor marine magnetometer. More than 550 km of seismic and marine magnetic data was collected simultaneously along shore-perpendicular transects spaced 800 m apart, with an additional 220 km of marine magnetometer data collected across the Hosgri Fault Zone, resulting in spacing locally as smallas 400 m. This report includes maps of the seismic-survey sections, linked to Google Earth software, and digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y, JPEG, and TIFF formats, as well as preliminary gridded marine-magnetic-anomaly and residual-magnetic-anomaly (shallow magnetic source) maps.

  20. Hydraulic properties variations response to seismic activity in the thick alluvial materials overlying an active fault: the Chihshang Fault (Taiwan) (United States)

    Mu, C. H.; Lee, J. C.; Cappa, F.; Guglielmi, Y.; Randolph-Flagg, N. G.


    The Chihshang Fault, one of the most active creeping faults in the world at a surface slip rate of 2-3 cm/yr, is located at plate suture between the Philippine Sea and the Eurasian plates in eastern Taiwan. Near the surface at the Chinyuan village, the Chihshang Fault propagates into the Holocene unconsolidated gravel layers. There, the Chihshang Fault displays a three-branch fault system with a diffused fault zone in the Chinyuan alluvial fan, which is composed of at least 100 m thick alluvial deposits. Outside of the Chinyuan fan, the Chihshang Fault exhibits a single fault system. In order to better understand whether the pore-fluid pressure variations within the alluvial gravels influences the near-surface seasonal locked behavior of the Chihshang Fault, we drilled four groundwater wells of depth of 30-100 m across the fault zone in the alluvial fan. Monitoring of natural pore pressure variations in piezometers, monthly slug experiments, and long duration pumping/injection experiments were carried out during 2007-2011. Together with the subsurface electrical resistivity imaging and core geological analysis, we identified a shallow aquifer layer that is deformed and truncated by the obliquely dipping fault zone. The results showed that the permeability within the fault zone is an order of magnitude less than that outside of the fault zone (i.e., the footwall and the hanging wall). This change in permeability may explain the 8-10 meter step of offset in groundwater level across the fault. In addition, repeated slug tests revealed that the permeability not only varied seasonally but also increased gradually by 20 fold in the hanging wall from 2007 to 2011. A dramatic jump in the permeability in the fault zone was observed from April to September 2008. This phenomenon is interpreted as a result of a cluster of low magnitude earthquakes occurred at the shallow crust, which may either have changed the static stress field along the fault, or cause dilatation that

  1. Active faulting in the Inner California Borderlands: new constraints from high-resolution multichannel seismic and multibeam bathymetric data. (United States)

    Bormann, J. M.; Holmes, J. J.; Sahakian, V. J.; Klotsko, S.; Kent, G.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Wesnousky, S. G.


    Geodetic data indicate that faults offshore of Southern California accommodate 6-8 mm/yr of dextral Pacific-North American relative plate motion. In the Inner California Borderlands (ICB), modern strike-slip deformation is overprinted on topography formed during plate boundary reorganization 30-15 Ma. Despite its proximity to urban Southern California, the hazard posed by active faults in the ICB remains poorly understood. We acquired a 4000-line-km regional grid of high-resolution, 2D multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data and multibeam bathymetry to examine the fault architecture and tectonic evolution of the ICB. We interpret the MCS data using a sequence stratigraphic approach to establish a chronostratigraphy and identify discrete episodes of deformation. We present our results in a regional fault model that distinguishes active deformation from older structures. Significant differences exist between our model of ICB deformation and existing models. Mounting evidence suggests a westward temporal migration of slip between faults in the ICB. In the eastern ICB, slip on the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault and the neighboring Coronado Bank fault (CBF) diminishes to the north and appears to decrease over time. Undeformed Late Pliocene sediments overlie the northern extent of the CBF and the breakaway zone of the purported Oceanside Blind Thrust. Therefore, CBF slip rate estimates based on linkage with the Palos Verdes fault to the north are unwarranted. Deformation along the San Mateo, San Onofre, and Carlsbad trends is best explained as localized deformation resulting from geometrical complexities in a dextral strike-slip fault system. In the western ICB, the San Diego Trough fault (SDTF) offsets young sediments between the US/Mexico border and the eastern margin of Avalon Knoll, where the fault is spatially coincident with the San Pedro Basin fault (SPBF). Farther west, the San Clemente fault (SCF) has a strong linear bathymetric expression. The length

  2. Application of fault tree analysis for customer reliability assessment of a distribution power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul Rahman, Fariz; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Lee, John C.


    A new method is developed for predicting customer reliability of a distribution power system using the fault tree approach with customer weighted values of component failure frequencies and downtimes. Conventional customer reliability prediction of the electric grid employs the system average (SA) component failure frequency and downtime that are weighted by only the quantity of the components in the system. These SA parameters are then used to calculate the reliability and availability of components in the system, and eventually to find the effect on customer reliability. Although this approach is intuitive, information is lost regarding customer disturbance experiences when customer information is not utilized in the SA parameter calculations, contributing to inaccuracies when predicting customer reliability indices in our study. Hence our new approach directly incorporates customer disturbance information in component failure frequency and downtime calculations by weighting these parameters with information of customer interruptions. This customer weighted (CW) approach significantly improves the prediction of customer reliability indices when applied to our reliability model with fault tree and two-state Markov chain formulations. Our method has been successfully applied to an actual distribution power system that serves over 2.1 million customers. Our results show an improved benchmarking performance on the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) by 26% between the SA-based and CW-based reliability calculations. - Highlights: ► We model the reliability of a power system with fault tree and two-state Markov chain. ► We propose using customer weighted component failure frequencies and downtimes. ► Results show customer weighted values perform superior to component average values. ► This method successfully incorporates customer disturbance information into the model.

  3. Geothermal and seismic evidence for a southeastern continuation of the three pagodas fault zone into the Gulf of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prinya Putthapiban


    Full Text Available Aerial photographic maps and landsat image interpretations suggest the major fault segments of the Three PagodaFault (TPF Zone and Sri Swat Fault (SSF Zone are oriented parallel or sub-parallel in the same NW-SE directions. The KwaeNoi River is running along the TPF in the south whereas the Kwae Yai River is running along the SSF in the north. Thesoutheastern continuation of both faults is obscured by thick Cenozoic sediments. Hence, surface lineaments cannot betraced with confidence. However, based on some interpretations of the airborne magnetic survey data, the trace of such faultsare designated to run through the western part of Bangkok and the northern end of the Gulf of Thailand. Paleo-earthquakesand the presence of hot springs along the fault zones indicate that they are tectonically active. The changes of both physicaland chemical properties of the water from Hin Dart Hot Spring and those of the surface water from a shallow well at Ban KhaoLao during the Great Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on 26th of December 2004 clearly indicated that the southeastern continuation of the TPF is at least as far south as Pak Tho District, Ratburi. Our new evidence of the alignment of the high heatflow in the upper part of the Gulf of Thailand verified that the TPF also extend into the Gulf via Samut Songkhram Province.Studies of the seismic data from two survey lines along the Western part of the upper Gulf of Thailand acquired by BritoilPlc. in 1986, namely Line A which is approximately 60 km long, starting from Bang Khen passing through Bang Khae andending in Samut Songkhram and Line B is approximately 30 km long starting from Samut Sakon ending in Samut Song Khramsuggest that all the faults or fractures along these seismic profiles are covered by sediments of approximately 230 m thickwhich explain that the fault underneath these seismic lines is quite old and may not be active. The absent of sign or trace ofthe TPF Path to the west suggested that there


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annisa Sholikhatul Addawiyah


    Full Text Available Fault tree analysis adalah suatu penilaian risiko yang mampu mengidentifikasi potensi bahaya secara spesifik, fokus, rinci pada satu kejadian yang tidak diinginkan, dan mengetahui penyebab kejadian tersebut beserta angka probabilitasnya. Tercatat mulai tanggal 1 Januari – 30 April 2014 terjadi kebakaran sebanyak 10 kali di divisi spinning PT. Apac Inti Corpora dengan kasus tertinggi di unit spinning V (50% kejadian.Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui faktor penyebab kebakaran, mengembangkan penilaian risiko, dan mengetahui gambaran umum sistem manajemen penanggulangan kebakaran di unit spinning V PT. AIC. Desain penelitian ini adalah kualitatif eksplanatoris. Hasil pengembangan bagan fault tree analysis didapatkan 41 basic event, 24 intermediate event, 1 conditioning event, dan 1 undeveloped event yang secara matematis melalui persamaan aljabar boolean akan menghasilkan 35 single minimum cut sets dan 5 double component cut sets, dengan perhitungan angka probabilitas sebesar 0,3552. Hasil kesesuaian sistem manajemen penanggulangan kebakaran didapatkan 76 poin dari 81 poin standar regulasi yang berlaku di Indonesia. Simpulan penelitian ini adalah kemungkinan terjadinya kebakaran di spinning V sebesar 35,52%. Saran dari penelitian ini adalah dilakukannya evaluasi terhadap kegagalan deteksi dini dan kegagalan teknis. Fault tree analysis has advantages in identifying potential hazards in specifics, focus, detail on a potential undesirable event that called top event, and was able to find out the causes with the value of probability. Recorded at January 1th – April 30th, 2014, there had been 10 cases of fires in the spinning PT. Apac Inti Corpora with the highest cases at spinning V (50% event. The purpose of this research was find out the cause of fires, develop a risk assessment, and learn an overview of fires countermeasures management system in spinning V. This research was a qualitative – explanatory design. Result of development fault

  5. Study of fault configuration related mysteries through multi seismic attribute analysis technique in Zamzama gas field area, southern Indus Basin, Pakistan

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    Shabeer Ahmed Abbasi


    Full Text Available Seismic attribute analysis approach has been applied for the interpretation and identification of fault geometry of Zamzama Gas Field. Zamzama gas field area, which lies in the vicinity of Kirthar fold and thrust belt, Southern Indus Basin of Pakistan. The Zamzama fault and its related structure have been predicted by applying the Average Energy Attribute, Instantaneous Frequency Attribute, relative Acoustic Impedance Attribute and Chaotic Reflection Attribute on the seismic line GHPK98A.34. The results have been confirmed by applying the spectral decomposition attribute on the same seismic line that reveal the geometric configuration of Zamzama structure. The fault is reverse and started from 0 s and ended at the depth of 2.5 s on the vertical seismic section. Hanging wall moves up along the fault plane under the action of eastward oriented stress, which formed a large north–south oriented and eastward verging thrusted anticline.

  6. Study on seismic hazard assessment of large active fault systems. Evolution of fault systems and associated geomorphic structures: fault model test and field survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueta, Keichi; Inoue, Daiei; Miyakoshi, Katsuyoshi; Miyagawa, Kimio; Miura, Daisuke


    Sandbox experiments and field surveys were performed to investigate fault system evolution and fault-related deformation of ground surface, the Quaternary deposits and rocks. The summary of the results is shown below. 1) In the case of strike-slip faulting, the basic fault sequence runs from early en echelon faults and pressure ridges through linear trough. The fault systems associated with the 2000 western Tottori earthquake are shown as en echelon pattern that characterize the early stage of wrench tectonics, therefore no thoroughgoing surface faulting was found above the rupture as defined by the main shock and aftershocks. 2) Low-angle and high-angle reverse faults commonly migrate basinward with time, respectively. With increasing normal fault displacement in bedrock, normal fault develops within range after reverse fault has formed along range front. 3) Horizontal distance of surface rupture from the bedrock fault normalized by the height of the Quaternary deposits agrees well with those of model tests. 4) Upward-widening damage zone, where secondary fractures develop, forms in the handing wall side of high-angle reverse fault at the Kamioka mine. (author)

  7. Parabolic distribution of circumeastern Snake River Plain seismicity and latest Quaternary faulting: Migratory pattern and association with the Yellowstone hotspot (United States)

    Anders, Mark H.; Geissman, John Wm.; Piety, Lucille A.; Sullivan, J. Timothy


    The Intermountain and Idaho seismic belts within Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana form an unusual parabolic pattern about the axis of the aseismic eastern Snake River Plain (SRP). This pattern is also reflected in the distribution of latest Quaternary normal faults. Several late Cenozoic normal faults that trend perpendicular to the axis of the eastern SRP extend from the aseismic region to the region of latest Quaternary faulting and seismicity. A study of the late Miocene to Holocene displacement history of one of these, the Grand Valley fault system in southeastern Idaho and western Wyoming, indicates that a locus of high displacement rates has migrated away from the eastern SRP to its present location in southern Star Valley in western Wyoming. In Swan Valley the studied area closest to the eastern SRP, isotopic ages, and paleomagnetic data for over 300 samples from 47 sites on well-exposed late Cenozoic volcanic rocks (the tuff of Spring Creek, the tuff of Heise, the Huckleberry Ridge tuff, the Pine Creek Basalt, and an older tuff thought to be the tuff of Cosgrove Road) are used to demonstrate differences in the displacement rate on the Grand Valley fault over the last ˜10 m.y. Tectonic tilts for these volcanic rocks are estimated by comparing the results of paleomagnetic analyses in Swan Valley to similar analyses of samples from undeformed volcanic rocks outside of Swan Valley. Basin geometry and tilt axes are established using seismic reflection profiles and field mapping. Combining these data with the tilt data makes it possible to calculate displacement rates during discrete temporal intervals. An average displacement rate of ˜1.8 mm/yr is calculated for the Grand Valley fault in Swan Valley between 4.4 and 2.0 Ma. In the subsequent 2.0-m.y. interval the rate dropped 2 orders of magnitude to ˜0.014 mm/yr; during the preceding 5.5-m.y. interval the displacement rate is ˜0.15 mm/yr, or about 1 order of magnitude less than the rate between 4.4 and 2.0 Ma

  8. User's manual of a computer code for seismic hazard evaluation for assessing the threat to a facility by fault model. SHEAT-FM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Onizawa, Kunio; Suzuki, Masahide


    To establish the reliability evaluation method for aged structural component, we developed a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation code SHEAT-FM (Seismic Hazard Evaluation for Assessing the Threat to a facility site - Fault Model) using a seismic motion prediction method based on fault model. In order to improve the seismic hazard evaluation, this code takes the latest knowledge in the field of earthquake engineering into account. For example, the code involves a group delay time of observed records and an update process model of active fault. This report describes the user's guide of SHEAT-FM, including the outline of the seismic hazard evaluation, specification of input data, sample problem for a model site, system information and execution method. (author)

  9. Implications for stress changes along the Motagua fault and other nearby faults using GPS and seismic constraints on the M=7.3 2009 Swan Islands earthquake (United States)

    Graham, S. E.; Rodriguez, M.; Rogers, R. D.; Strauch, W.; Hernandez, D.; Demets, C.


    The May 28, 2009 M=7.3 Swan Islands earthquake off the north coast of Honduras caused significant damage in the northern part of the country, including seven deaths. This event, the largest in the region for several decades, ruptured the offshore continuation of the Motagua-Polochic fault system, whose 1976 earthquake (located several hundred kilometers to the southwest of the 2009 epicenter) caused more than 23,000 deaths in Central America and left homeless 20% of Guatemala’s population. We use elastic half-space modeling of coseismic offsets measured at 39 GPS stations in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala to better understand the slip source of the recent Swan Islands earthquake. Measured offsets range from .32 meters at a campaign site near the Motagua fault in northern Honduras to 4 millimeters at five continuous sites in El Salvador. Coulomb stress calculations based on the estimated distribution of coseismic slip will be presented and compared to earthquake focal mechanisms and aftershock locations determined from a portable seismic network that was installed in northern Honduras after the main shock. Implications of the Swan Islands rupture for the seismically hazardous Motagua-Polochic fault system will be described.

  10. Investigating effects of near fault rupture directivity on seismic hazard assessment of the site of Tehran Research Reactor (TRR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanloo, Kamran; Saberi, Reza [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Alinejad, Majid [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Bazarchi, Ehsan [Tabriz Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of)


    It is estimated that the occurrence of a major-earthquake in Tehran, Iran, which is not far-fetched, would face the country with a huge amount of collapsed structures, economical losses and fatalities. The issue becomes more important while the site of interest is attributed to the nuclear facilities and any under-estimation in predicting the design ground motion may cause a real disaster. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, PSHA was conducted for the site of TRR. It was concluded that most of the hazard for considered site in a 10000-year period comes from distances lower than 20 km and considering rupture directivity effects of the North Tehran fault, as the nearest seismicity source to considered site, using narrowband method affected the response spectrum significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.

  11. Coseismic deformation, field observations and seismic fault of the 17 November 2015 M = 6.5, Lefkada Island, Greece earthquake (United States)

    Ganas, Athanassios; Elias, Panagiotis; Bozionelos, George; Papathanassiou, George; Avallone, Antonio; Papastergios, Asterios; Valkaniotis, Sotirios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Briole, Pierre


    On November 17, 2015 07:10:07 UTC a strong, shallow Mw6.5 earthquake, occurred on the island of Lefkada along a strike-slip fault with right-lateral sense of slip. The event triggered widespread environmental effects at the south and western part of the island while, the intensity and severity of these earthquake-induced deformations is substantially decreased towards the eastern part of the island. Relocation of seismicity and inversion of geophysical (GPS, InSAR) data indicate that the seismic fault runs parallel to the west coast of Lefkada, along the Aegean - Apulia plate boundary. The fault plane strikes N20 ± 5°E and dips to east with an angle of about 70 ± 5°. Coseismic deformation was measured in the order of tens of centimeters of horizontal motion by continuous GPS stations of NOANET (the NOA GPS network) and by InSAR (Sentinel 1 A image pairs). A coseismic uniform-slip model was produced from inversion of InSAR data and permanent GPS stations. The earthquake measured Mw = 6.5 using both the geodetic moment produced by the slip model, as well as the PGD relation of Melgar et al. (2015, GRL). In the field we observed no significant vertical motion of the shoreline or surface expression of faulting, this is consistent with the predictions of the model. The interferograms show a large decorrelation area that extends almost along all the western coast of Lefkada. This area correlates well with the mapped landslides. The 2003-2015 pattern of seismicity in the Ionian Sea region indicates the existence of a 15-km seismic gap offshore NW Cephalonia.

  12. Fault-Magma Interactions during Early Continental Rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa (United States)

    Weinstein, A.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Aman, M.; Lambert, C.; Roecker, S. W.; Tiberi, C.; Muirhead, J.


    Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13-month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87 ± 0.03. Focal mechanisms for 66 earthquakes, and a longer time period of relocated earthquakes from global arrays reveal an along-axis stress rotation of 50 o ( N150 oE) in the magmatically active zone. Using Kostrov summation of local and teleseismic mechanisms, we find opening directions of N122ºE and N92ºE north and south of the magmatically active zone. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies, and more dike intrusions with surface faulting, eruptions, and earthquakes are expected.

  13. Extremely weak fault planes: An estimate of focal mechanisms from stationary seismic activity in the San'in district, Japan (United States)

    Iio, Yoshihisa; Kishimoto, Shinji; Nakao, Setsuro; Miura, Tsutomu; Yoneda, Itaru; Sawada, Masayo; Katao, Hiroshi


    In this paper, using data from dense seismic observations in and around the seismic belt of the San'in district, Japan, we describe our analysis of focal mechanisms of stationary seismic activity, estimated stress states, and pore fluid pressures. We found these focal mechanisms to be described by the estimated stress field, suggesting that the stress field can be treated as uniform in each sub-region of the study area. We also found that events occurred even on unfavorably oriented fault planes with small shear stress. Further, we inferred that pore fluid pressures of approximately 20% of the faults analyzed are greater than the magnitude of minimum principal stress, when we assume μ = 0.6. A possible explanation is localized high pore fluid pressure anomalies; another is the coefficient of friction of at least a part of faults analyzed in the study area being substantially smaller than 0.6, which we view as more plausible, since it is difficult to maintain pore fluid pressures higher than the magnitude of minimum principal stress for long periods of time.

  14. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita


    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  15. Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de.


    This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

  16. Testing digital safety system software with a testability measure based on a software fault tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, Se Do; Hyun Seong, Poong


    Using predeveloped software, a digital safety system is designed that meets the quality standards of a safety system. To demonstrate the quality, the design process and operating history of the product are reviewed along with configuration management practices. The application software of the safety system is developed in accordance with the planned life cycle. Testing, which is a major phase that takes a significant time in the overall life cycle, can be optimized if the testability of the software can be evaluated. The proposed testability measure of the software is based on the entropy of the importance of basic statements and the failure probability from a software fault tree. To calculate testability, a fault tree is used in the analysis of a source code. With a quantitative measure of testability, testing can be optimized. The proposed testability can also be used to demonstrate whether the test cases based on uniform partitions, such as branch coverage criteria, result in homogeneous partitions that is known to be more effective than random testing. In this paper, the testability measure is calculated for the modules of a nuclear power plant's safety software. The module testing with branch coverage criteria required fewer test cases if the module has higher testability. The result shows that the testability measure can be used to evaluate whether partitions have homogeneous characteristics

  17. Safety analyses of potential exposure in medical irradiation plants by Fuzzy Fault Tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casamirra, Maddalena; Castiglia, Francesco; Giardina, Mariarosa; Tomarchio, Elio


    The results of Fuzzy Fault Tree (FFT) analyses of various accidental scenarios, which involve the operators in potential exposures inside an High Dose Rate (HDR) remote after-loading systems for use in brachytherapy, are reported. To carry out fault tree analyses by means of fuzzy probabilities, the TREEZZY2 computer code is used. Moreover, the HEART (Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) model, properly modified on the basis of the fuzzy approach, has been employed to assess the impact of performances haping and error-promoting factors in the context of the accidental events. The assessment of potential dose values for some identified accidental scenarios allows to consider, for a particular event, a fuzzy uncertainty range in potential dose estimate. The availability of lower and upper limits allows evaluating the possibility of optimization of the installation from the point of view of radiation protection. The adequacy of the training and information program for staff and patients (and their family members) and the effectiveness of behavioural rules and safety procedures were tested. Some recommendations on procedures and equipment to reduce the risk of radiological exposure are also provided. (author)

  18. The fault tree as a tool in safety analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waddington, J.G.; Wild, A.


    Modern safety analysis must be able to identify realistic failure modes based on realistic operation and system malfunction, demonstrate rigorously that adequate independence exists between a malfunctioning system and those other systems required to mitigate the effects of the malfunction, design adequate reliability into systems important to plant safety and to demonstrate rigorously that the design reliability is met in operation, and identify the realistic actions expected of the operator. Fault trees, which have proved to be a powerful tool to achieve these objectives, are inevitably large and must be computerized. However, the computerized system must be simple, must allow merging of branches developed independently, must provide for easy modification and the processing must be economical and easily accessible. A new system for displaying, plotting and analysing fault trees has been developed and implemented on a small computer at AECB to demonstrate the viability of the approach to designers, and to provide a tool to assess licensee's submissions on failure modes of support systems such as electrical, service water and air, and to assess reliability predictions for special safety systems. (author)

  19. Imaging Stress Transients and Fault Zone Processes with Crosswell Continuous Active-Source Seismic Monitoring at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (United States)

    Niu, F.; Taira, T.; Daley, T. M.; Marchesini, P.; Robertson, M.; Wood, T.


    Recent field and laboratory experiments identify seismic velocity changes preceding microearthquakes and rock failure (Niu et al., 2008, Nature; Scuderi et al., 2016, NatureGeo), which indicates that a continuous monitoring of seismic velocity might provide a mean of understanding of the earthquake nucleation process. Crosswell Continuous Active-Source Seismic Monitoring (CASSM) using borehole sources and sensors has proven to be an effective tool for measurements of seismic velocity and its temporal variation at seismogenic depth (Silver, et al, 2007, BSSA; Daley, et al, 2007, Geophysics). To expand current efforts on the CASSM development, in June 2017 we have begun to conduct a year-long CASSM field experiment at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) in which the preceding field experiment detected the two sudden velocity reductions approximately 10 and 2 hours before microearthquakes (Niu et al., 2008, Nature). We installed a piezoelectric source and a three-component accelerometer at the SAFOD pilot and main holes ( 1 km depth) respectively. A seismic pulse was fired from the piezoelectric source four times per second. Each waveform was recorded 150-ms-long data with a sampling rate of 48 kHz. During this one-year experiment, we expect to have 10-15 microearthquakes (magnitude 1-3) occurring near the SAFOD site, and the data collected from the new experiment would allow us to further explore a relation between velocity changes and the Parkfield seismicity. Additionally, the year-long data provide a unique opportunity to study long-term velocity changes that might be related to seasonal stress variations at Parkfield (Johnson et al., 2017, Science). We will report on initial results of the SAFOD CASSM experiment and operational experiences of the CASSM development.

  20. Active fault databases: building a bridge between earthquake geologists and seismic hazard practitioners, the case of the QAFI v.3 database (United States)

    García-Mayordomo, Julián; Martín-Banda, Raquel; Insua-Arévalo, Juan M.; Álvarez-Gómez, José A.; Martínez-Díaz, José J.; Cabral, João


    Active fault databases are a very powerful and useful tool in seismic hazard assessment, particularly when singular faults are considered seismogenic sources. Active fault databases are also a very relevant source of information for earth scientists, earthquake engineers and even teachers or journalists. Hence, active fault databases should be updated and thoroughly reviewed on a regular basis in order to keep a standard quality and uniformed criteria. Desirably, active fault databases should somehow indicate the quality of the geological data and, particularly, the reliability attributed to crucial fault-seismic parameters, such as maximum magnitude and recurrence interval. In this paper we explain how we tackled these issues during the process of updating and reviewing the Quaternary Active Fault Database of Iberia (QAFI) to its current version 3. We devote particular attention to describing the scheme devised for classifying the quality and representativeness of the geological evidence of Quaternary activity and the accuracy of the slip rate estimation in the database. Subsequently, we use this information as input for a straightforward rating of the level of reliability of maximum magnitude and recurrence interval fault seismic parameters. We conclude that QAFI v.3 is a much better database than version 2 either for proper use in seismic hazard applications or as an informative source for non-specialized users. However, we already envision new improvements for a future update.

  1. Tectonic geomorphology and neotectonic setting of the seismically active South Wagad Fault (SWF), Western India, using field and GPR data (United States)

    Maurya, D. M.; Chowksey, Vikas; Tiwari, Prabhuti; Chamyal, L. S.


    The South Wagad Fault (SWF) is an E-W trending fault that delimits the Wagad uplift comprising Mesozoic rocks in its northern upthrown block and Neogene-Quaternary sediments in the southern downthrown block. Detailed GPR investigations were carried out at seven sites selected after field studies. All profiles clearly showed the lithological contrast across the fault. The sharp amplitude contrast of the radar waves along a vertical to sub-vertical line is interpreted as the near surface trace of the SWF. As the Quaternary sediments are not displaced, we infer that no large magnitude earthquake has occurred along the SWF in late Quaternary. We attribute the low magnitude of neotectonic activity along the SWF to gentle warping of the Tertiary rocks in the southern downthrown block and greater accumulation of compressive stresses along the nearby KMF with an opposite structural setting. This is consistent with the observed variable levels of ongoing seismicity in the region around the SWF.

  2. Modeling of time-lapse multi-scale seismic monitoring of CO2 injected into a fault zone to enhance the characterization of permeability in enhanced geothermal systems (United States)

    Zhang, R.; Borgia, A.; Daley, T. M.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Jung, Y.; Lee, K. J.; Doughty, C.; Altundas, B.; Chugunov, N.; Ramakrishnan, T. S.


    Subsurface permeable faults and fracture networks play a critical role for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) by providing conduits for fluid flow. Characterization of the permeable flow paths before and after stimulation is necessary to evaluate and optimize energy extraction. To provide insight into the feasibility of using CO2 as a contrast agent to enhance fault characterization by seismic methods, we model seismic monitoring of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) injected into a fault. During the CO2 injection, the original brine is replaced by scCO2, which leads to variations in geophysical properties of the formation. To explore the technical feasibility of the approach, we present modeling results for different time-lapse seismic methods including surface seismic, vertical seismic profiling (VSP), and a cross-well survey. We simulate the injection and production of CO2 into a normal fault in a system based on the Brady's geothermal field and model pressure and saturation variations in the fault zone using TOUGH2-ECO2N. The simulation results provide changing fluid properties during the injection, such as saturation and salinity changes, which allow us to estimate corresponding changes in seismic properties of the fault and the formation. We model the response of the system to active seismic monitoring in time-lapse mode using an anisotropic finite difference method with modifications for fracture compliance. Results to date show that even narrow fault and fracture zones filled with CO2 can be better detected using the VSP and cross-well survey geometry, while it would be difficult to image the CO2 plume by using surface seismic methods.

  3. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Chishan Fault in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun-Sung Liu


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in southern Taiwan as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active faults in this area. The resultant Shake Map patterns of maximum ground motion in a case of Mw 7.2 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northeastern, central and northern parts of southwestern Kaohsiung as well as the southern part of central Tainan, as shown in the regions inside the yellow lines in the corresponding figure. Comparing cities with similar distances located in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung to the Chishan fault, the cities in Tainan area have relatively greater PGA and PGV, due to large site response factors in Tainan area. Furthermore, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are not completely dominated by the Chishan fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are marked with low site response amplification values from 0.55 - 1.1 and 0.67 - 1.22 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55 - 64. Another to pay special attention is Kaohsiung City has more than 540 thousand households whose residences over 50 years old. In light of the results of this study, I urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in southern Taiwan.

  4. Structure of the San Bernardino Basin Along Two Seismic Transects: Rialto-Colton Fault to the San Andreas Fault and Along the I-215 Freeway (I-10 to SR30) (United States)

    Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.; Steedman, C.E.


    In this report, we present seismic data and acquisition parameters for two seismic profiles acquired in the San Bernardino, California area in May and October 2003. We refer to these seismic profiles as the San Bernardino Regional (SBR) and San Bernardino High-Resolution (SBHR) seismic profiles. We present both un-interpreted and interpreted seismic images so that the structure of the area can independently interpreted by others. We explain the rationale for our interpretations within the text of this report, and in addition, we provide a large body of supporting evidence. The SBR seismic profile extended across the San Bernardino Basin approximately N30?E from the town of Colton to the town of Highland. The data were acquired at night when the signal-to-noise ratios were reasonably good, and for the larger shots, seismic energy propagated across the ~20-km-long array. Tomographic velocity data are available to depths of about 4 km, and low-fold reflection data are available to depths in excess of 5 km. The SBR seismic data reveal an asymmetric, fault-bound basin to about 5 km depth. The SBHR seismic profile trended along the I-215 freeway from its intersection with the Santa Ana River to approximately State Road 30 in San Bernardino. Seismic data acquired along the I-215 freeway provide detailed images, with CDP spacing of approximately 2.5 m along an approximately 8.2-km-long profile; shot and geophone spacing was 5 m. For logistical reasons, the high-resolution (SBHR) seismic data were acquired during daylight hours on the shoulder of the I-215 freeway and within 5 to 10 m of high-traffic volumes, resulting in low signal-to-noise ratios. The limited offset at which refracted first-arrivals could be measured along the SBHR seismic profile limited our measurements of tomographic refraction velocities to relatively shallow (< 150 m) depths. The SBHR reflection data reveal a basin with complex structural details within the upper kilometer. The two seismic profiles

  5. Strike-slip fault Kinematics and mechanics at the seismic cycle time-scale : Results from new analogue model experiments. (United States)

    Caniven, Yannick; Dominguez, Stéphane; Soliva, Roger; Cattin, Rodolphe; Peyret, Michel; Chéry, Jean; Romano, Christian


    The average seismic cycle duration extends from hundred to a few thousands years but geodetic measurements, including trilateration, GPS, Insar and seismological data extend over less than one century. This short time observation scale renders difficult, then, to constrain the role of key parameters such as fault friction and geometry, crust rheology, stress and strain rate that control the kinematics and mechanics of active faults. To solve this time scale issue, we have developed a new experimental set-up that reproduces scaled micro-earthquakes and several hundreds of seismic cycles along a strike-slip fault. The model is constituted by two polyurethane foam plates laterally in contact, lying on a basal silicone layer, which simulate the mechanical behaviour of an elastoplastic upper crust over a ductile lower crust, respectively. To simulate the boundary conditions of a strike-slip fault, a computerized motoreductor system moves the two compartments on an opposite sens and at a constant very low velocity (a few µm/s). The model spatial and temporal scaling, deduces from analog material physical and mechanical parameters, implies that 1 cm in the model represents 2-3 km in the nature and 1 s is equivalent to 5-15 years. Surface-horizontal strain field is quantified by sub-pixel correlation of digital camera pictures recorded every 16 µm of displacement. For each experience about 2000 horizontal-velocity field measurements are recorded. The analysis of model-interseismic and coseismic surface displacements and their comparison to seismogenic natural faults demonstrate that our analog model reproduces correctly both near and far-field surface strains. To compare the experiences, we have developed several algorithms that allow studying the main spatial and temporal evolution of the physical parameters and surface deformation processes that characterise the seismic cycle (magnitudes, stress, strain, friction coefficients, interseismic locking depth, recurrence

  6. Seismicity preliminary results in a geothermal and volcano activity area: study case Liquiñe-Ofqui fault system in Southern Andes, Chile (United States)

    Estay, N. P.; Yáñez Morroni, G.; Crempien, J. G. F.; Roquer, T.


    Fluid transport through the crust takes place in domains with high permeability. For this reason, fault damage zones are a main feature where fluids may circulate unimpeded, since they have much larger permeability than normal country rocks. With the location of earthquakes, it is possible to infer fault geometry and stress field of the crust, therefore we can determine potential places where fluid circualtion is taking place. With that purpose, we installed a seismic network in an active volcanic-geothermal system, the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System (LOFS), located in Puyuhuapi, Southern Andes (44°-45°S). This allowed to link epicentral seismicity, focal mechanisms and surface expression of fluid circulation (hot-springs and volcanos). The LOFS is composed by two NS-striking dextral master faults, and several secondary NE-striking dextral and normal faults. Surface manifestation of fluid circulation in Puyuhuapi area are: 1) six hot-springs, most of them spatially associated with different mapped faults; 2) seven minor eruptive centers aligned over a 10-km-along one of the master NS-striking fault, and; 3) the Melimouyu strato-volcano without any spatial relationship with mapped faults. The network consists of 6 short period seismometers (S31f-2.0a sensor of IESE, with natural frequency of 2Hz), that were installed between July 2016 and August 2017; also 4 permanent broad-band seismometers (Guralp 6TD/ CD 24 sensor) which belong to the Volcano Observatory of Southern Andes (OVDAS). Preliminary results show a correlation between seismicity and surface manifestation of fluid circulation. Seismicity has a heterogeneous distribution: most of the earthquake are concentrated is the master NS-striking fault with fluid circulation manifestations; however along the segments without surface manifestation of fluids do not have seismicity. These results suggest that fluid circulation mostly occur in areas with high seismicity, and thus, the increment in fluid pressure enhances

  7. Thermo-Hydro-Micro-Mechanical 3D Modeling of a Fault Gouge During Co-seismic Slip (United States)

    Papachristos, E.; Stefanou, I.; Sulem, J.; Donze, F. V.


    A coupled Thermo-Hydro-Micro-Mechanical (THMM) model based on the Discrete Elements method (DEM) is presented for studying the evolving fault gouge properties during pre- and co-seismic slip. Modeling the behavior of the fault gouge at the microscale is expected to improve our understanding on the various mechanisms that lead to slip weakening and finally control the transition from aseismic to seismic slip.The gouge is considered as a granular material of spherical particles [1]. Upon loading, the interactions between particles follow a frictional behavior and explicit dynamics. Using regular triangulation, a pore network is defined by the physical pore space between the particles. The network is saturated by a compressible fluid, and flow takes place following Stoke's equations. Particles' movement leads to pore deformation and thus to local pore pressure increase. Forces exerted from the fluid onto the particles are calculated using mid-step velocities. The fluid forces are then added to the contact forces resulting from the mechanical interactions before the next step.The same semi-implicit, two way iterative coupling is used for the heat-exchange through conduction.Simple tests have been performed to verify the model against analytical solutions and experimental results. Furthermore, the model was used to study the effect of temperature on the evolution of effective stress in the system and to highlight the role of thermal pressurization during seismic slip [2, 3].The analyses are expected to give grounds for enhancing the current state-of-the-art constitutive models regarding fault friction and shed light on the evolution of fault zone propertiesduring seismic slip.[1] Omid Dorostkar, Robert A Guyer, Paul A Johnson, Chris Marone, and Jan Carmeliet. On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122

  8. Creep avalanches on San Andreas Fault and their underlying mechanism from 19 years of InSAR and seismicity (United States)

    Khoshmanesh, M.; Shirzaei, M.


    Recent seismic and geodetic observations indicate that interseismic creep rate varies in both time and space. The spatial extent of creep determines the earthquake potential, while its temporal evolution, known as slow slip events (SSE), may trigger earthquakes. Although the conditions promoting fault creep are well-established, the mechanism for initiating self-sustaining and sometimes cyclic creep events is enigmatic. Here we investigate a time series of 19 years of surface deformation measured by radar interferometry between 1992 and 2011 along the Central San Andreas Fault (CSAF) to constrain the temporal evolution of creep. We show that the creep rate along the CSAF has a sporadic behavior, quantified with a Gumbel-like probability distribution characterized by longer tail toward the extreme positive rates, which is signature of burst-like creep dynamics. Defining creep avalanches as clusters of isolated creep with rates exceeding the shearing rate of tectonic plates, we investigate the statistical properties of their size and length. We show that, similar to the frequency-magnitude distribution of seismic events, the distribution of potency estimated for creep avalanches along the CSAF follows a power law, dictated by the distribution of their along-strike lengths. We further show that an ensemble of concurrent creep avalanches which aseismically rupture isolated fault compartments form the semi-periodic SSEs observed along the CSAF. Using a rate and state friction model, we show that normal stress is temporally variable on the fault, and support this using seismic observations. We propose that, through a self-sustaining fault-valve behavior, compaction induced elevation of pore pressure within hydraulically isolated fault compartments, and subsequent frictional dilation is the cause for the observed episodic SSEs. We further suggest that the 2004 Parkfield Mw6 earthquake may have been triggered by the SSE on adjacent creeping segment, which increased Coulomb

  9. Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake (United States)

    Wang, Chun-Yong; Mooney, W.D.; Ding, Z.; Yang, J.; Yao, Z.; Lou, H.


    The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P- and S-wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S-wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S-wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30-45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1-2 km, while P-wave velocities are reduced by 7-20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P- and S-low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp. The low-velocity and low-Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

  10. Fault-magma interactions during early continental rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa (United States)

    Weinstein, A.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C. J.; Roecker, S.; Tiberi, C.; Aman, M.; Lambert, C.; Witkin, E.; Albaric, J.; Gautier, S.; Peyrat, S.; Muirhead, J. D.; Muzuka, A. N. N.; Mulibo, G.; Kianji, G.; Ferdinand-Wambura, R.; Msabi, M.; Rodzianko, A.; Hadfield, R.; Illsley-Kemp, F.; Fischer, T. P.


    Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2-D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13 month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3-D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes beneath the central basins and along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87 ± 0.03. Focal mechanisms for 65 earthquakes, and 13 from a catalogue prior to our array reveal an along-axis stress rotation of ˜60° in the magmatically active zone. New and prior mechanisms show predominantly normal slip along steep nodal planes, with extension directions ˜N90°E north and south of an active volcanic chain consistent with geodetic data, and ˜N150°E in the volcanic chain. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early-stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Results indicate that earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies.

  11. A differentiated approach to the seismic tomography problem: Method, testing and application to the Western Nagano fault area (Japan) (United States)

    Smaglichenko, Tatyana A.; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Takai, Kaori


    Results of tomographic inversion enrich our understanding of the geodynamic processes in the Earth. Seismic imaging of fault zones, the shear rupture permits us to investigate the structure under gas storage areas, in districts of large hydroelectric power stations, nuclear plants. The information about the geodynamic evolution of seismic structures in areas that are close to oceans helps us in assumption of epicenters of destructive earthquakes. A differentiated approach (DA) has been developed to overcome an interference of parameterization and observation errors distorting an accuracy of the three-dimensional tomography images. We have designed a method based upon revision of Gauss elimination scheme to the modern problem of large and sparse system of equations. The best linear unbiased estimations of seismic velocity parameter have been obtained by means of incorporating criterion. We used the statistical analyze to select optimal solution having minimal dispersion of parameterization error. In order to decrease a risk of a high error rate we applied the theory of Tikhonov regularization. Due to these measures the evaluated parameters of a medium possess isometric properties and thus for them the problem of seismic anisotropy has a real chance to be solved. By using a simple arbitrary model as well as a complex one for the fault region in Western Nagano, Japan, we demonstrated that the DA method is an effective alternative for the standard method. An application of DA to the real data underlines the high capability of DA of defining the fault planes as compared to the double-difference algorithm under the same condition of experiment. The detailed DA image suggests that the narrow rupture zone after the 1984 Naganoken-Seibu earthquake still exists.

  12. Crustal structure at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from deep seismic sounding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Baier


    Full Text Available The first deep seismic sounding experiment in Northwestern Anatolia was carried out in October 1991 as part of the "German - Turkish Project on Earthquake Prediction Research" in the Mudurnu area of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The experiment was a joint enterprise by the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of Frankfurt University, the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI in Ankara, and the Turkish Oil Company (TPAO. Two orthogonal profiles, each 120 km in length with a crossing point near Akyazi, were covered in succession by 30 short period tape recording seismograph stations with 2 km station spacing. 12 shots, with charge sizes between 100 and 250 kg, were fired and 342 seismograms out of 360 were used for evaluation. By coincidence an M b = 4.5 earthquake located below Imroz Island was also recorded and provided additional information on Moho and the sub-Moho velocity. A ray tracing method orginally developed by Weber (1986 was used for travel time inversion. From a compilation of all data two generalized crustal models were derived, one with velocity gradients within the layers and one with constant layer velocities. The latter consists of a sediment cover of about 2 km with V p » 3.6 km/s, an upper crystalline crust down to 13 km with V p » 5.9 km/s, a middle crust down to 25 km depth with V p » 6.5 km/s, a lower crust down to 39 km Moho depth with V p » 7.0 km/s and V p » 8.05 km/s below the Moho. The structure of the individual profiles differs slightly. The thickest sediment cover is reached in the Izmit-Sapanca-trough and in the Akyazi basin. Of particular interest is a step of about 4 km in the lower crust near Lake Sapanca and probably an even larger one in the Moho (derived from the Imroz earthquake data. After the catastrophic earthquake of Izmit on 17 August 1999 this significant heterogeneity in crustal structure appears in a new light with regard to the possible cause of the Izmit earthquake. Heterogeneities in


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gevorg G. Kocharyan


    Full Text Available Association of earthquake hypocenters with fault zones appears more pronounced in cases with more accurately determined positions of the earthquakes. For complex, branched structures of major fault zones, it is assumed that some of the earthquakes occur at feathering fractures of smaller scale.It is thus possible to develop a «seismological» criterion for definition of a zone of dynamic influence of faults, i.e. the zone containing the majority of earthquakes associated with the fault zone under consideration.In this publication, seismogenic structures of several fault zones located in the San-Andreas fault system are reviewed. Based on the data from a very dense network of digital seismic stations installed in this region and with application of modern data processing methods, differential coordinates of microearthquakes can be determined with errors of about first dozens of meters.It is thus possible to precisely detect boundaries of the areas wherein active deformation processes occur and to reveal spatial patterns of seismic event localization.In our analyses, data from the most comprehensive seismic catalog were used. The catalogue includes information on events which occurred and were registered in North California in the period between January 1984 and May 2003. In this publication, the seismic data processing results and regularities revealed during the analyses are compared with the data obtained from studies of fault structures, modeling and numerical simulation results. Results of quantitative research of regularities of localization of seismic sources inside fault zones are presented.It is demonstrated by 3D models that seismic events are localized in the vicinity of an almost plain surface with a nearly constant angle of dip, the majority of events being concentrated at that conventional surface.Detection of typical scopes of seismicity localization may prove critical for solution of problems of technogenic impact on fault zones

  14. Simulation of Co-Seismic Secondary Fracture Displacements: Effects of Rupture Propagation, Fault Properties and Rupture Arrest (United States)

    Fälth, B.; Lund, B.; Hökmark, H.


    Using dynamic earthquake simulations we calculate co-seismic secondary fracture shear displacements induced by dynamic and static stress variations. Our results are aimed at improved safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories. We use a model with a pre-defined earthquake fault plane (primary fault) surrounded by smaller discontinuities (target fractures) representing faults on which shear movements may be induced by the earthquake. Trying two different methods for propagating the earthquake rupture, we study how the propagation mechanism impacts the amount of target fracture shear displacement. In the first method, which we have adopted in previous studies, we apply a time-weakening algorithm and a pre-defined, constant, rupture velocity. In the second method, we apply the slip-weakening law, i.e. the rupture propagates spontaneously and the strength breakdown takes place over a pre-defined slip-weakening distance. To have relevant cases at hand for our method comparison, we perform several simulations that cover ranges of rupture velocity, strength breakdown time and slip-weakening distance. Furthermore, by applying spatial fault shear strength variations (following both regular sinusoidal strength distributions and self-similar fractal distributions) we study how inhomogeneous fault properties may influence the results. Finally, motivated by observations made in previous studies of extensive secondary effects along sharp rupture area tips that generate exaggerated slip gradients, we examine how more realistic slip gradients may influence the results. Our preliminary results indicate that (i) for similar rupture velocities, the two rupture propagation methods yield secondary displacements at short fault-fracture distances that differ 30%, at most, (ii) fault inhomogeneities may increase the maximum displacements by about 30%, and (iii) the displacements close to the rupture area tip are reduced by more than 35% when more realistic slip gradients

  15. Seismic evidence of conjugate normal faulting: The 1994 Devil Canyon earthquake sequence near Challis, Idaho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, Suzette M. [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)


    Aftershock hypocenters of the 1984 Devil Canyon, Idaho earthquake indicate the sequence was associated with conjugate normal faulting on two northwest-striking normal faults that bound the Warm Spring Creek graben.

  16. 3D seismic detection of shallow faults and fluid migration pathways offshore Southern Costa Rica: Application of neural-network meta-attributes (United States)

    Kluesner, J. W.; Silver, E. A.; Nale, S. M.; Bangs, N. L.; McIntosh, K. D.


    We employ a seismic meta-attribute workflow to detect and analyze probable faults and fluid-pathways in 3D within the sedimentary section offshore Southern Costa Rica. During the CRISP seismic survey in 2011 we collected an 11 x 55 km grid of 3D seismic reflection data and high-resolvability EM122 multibeam data, with coverage extending from the incoming plate to the outer-shelf. We mapped numerous seafloor seep indicators, with distributions ranging from the lower-slope to ~15 km landward of the shelf break [Kluesner et al., 2013, G3, doi:10.1002/ggge.20058; Silver et al., this meeting]. We used the OpendTect software package to calculate meta-attribute volumes from the 3D seismic data in order to detect and visualize seismic discontinuities in 3D. This methodology consists of dip-steered filtering to pre-condition the data, followed by combining a set of advanced dip-steered seismic attributes into a single object probability attribute using a user-trained neural-network pattern-recognition algorithm. The parameters of the advanced seismic attributes are set for optimal detection of the desired geologic discontinuity (e.g. faults or fluid-pathways). The product is a measure of probability for the desired target that ranges between 0 and 1, with 1 representing the highest probability. Within the sedimentary section of the CRISP survey the results indicate focused fluid-migration pathways along dense networks of intersecting normal faults with approximately N-S and E-W trends. This pattern extends from the middle slope to the outer-shelf region. Dense clusters of fluid-migration pathways are located above basement highs and deeply rooted reverse faults [see Bangs et al., this meeting], including a dense zone of fluid-pathways imaged below IODP Site U1413. In addition, fault intersections frequently show an increased signal of fluid-migration and these zones may act as major conduits for fluid-flow through the sedimentary cover. Imaged fluid pathways root into high

  17. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling


    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  18. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.


    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  19. A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks. (United States)

    Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I


    Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management (United States)

    Johnson, Stephen B.; Breckenridge, Jonathan T.


    This paper describes a new representation that enables rigorous definition and decomposition of both nominal and off-nominal system goals and functions: the Goal-Function Tree (GFT). GFTs extend the concept and process of functional decomposition, utilizing state variables as a key mechanism to ensure physical and logical consistency and completeness of the decomposition of goals (requirements) and functions, and enabling full and complete traceabilitiy to the design. The GFT also provides for means to define and represent off-nominal goals and functions that are activated when the system's nominal goals are not met. The physical accuracy of the GFT, and its ability to represent both nominal and off-nominal goals enable the GFT to be used for various analyses of the system, including assessments of the completeness and traceability of system goals and functions, the coverage of fault management failure detections, and definition of system failure scenarios.

  1. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.


    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  2. Fault tree analysis: A survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette


    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software

  3. Fault Tree Analysis: A survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette


    Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software


    A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servic...

  5. Managing the Risk of Triggered Seismicity: Can We Identify (and Avoid) Potentially Active Faults? - A Practical Case Study in Oklahoma (United States)

    Zoback, M. D.; Alt, R. C., II; Walsh, F. R.; Walters, R. J.


    It is well known that throughout the central and eastern U.S. there has been a marked increase in seismicity since 2009, at least some of which appears to increased wastewater injection. No area has seen a greater increase in seismicity than Oklahoma. In this paper, we utilize newly available information on in situ stress orientation and relative magnitudes, the distribution of high volume injection wells and knowledge of the intervals used for waste water disposal to identify the factors potentially contributing to the occurrence of triggered seismicity. While there are a number of sites where in situ stress data has been successfully used to identify potentially active faults, we are investigating whether this methodology can be implemented throughout a state utilizing the types of information frequently available in areas of oil and gas development. As an initial test of this concept, we have been compiling stress orientation data from wells throughout Oklahoma provided by private industry. Over fifty new high quality data points, principally drilling-induced tensile fractures observed in image logs, result in a greatly improved understanding of the stress field in much of the state. A relatively uniform ENE direction of maximum compressive stress is observed, although stress orientations (and possibly relative stress magnitudes) differ in the southern and southwestern parts of the state. The proposed methodology can be tested in the area of the NE-trending fault that produced the M 5+ earthquakes in the Prague, OK sequence in 2011, and the Meers fault in southwestern OK, that produced a M~7 reverse faulting earthquake about 1100 years ago. This methodology can also be used to essentially rule out slip on other major faults in the area, such as the ~N-S trending Nemaha fault system. Additional factors leading to the occurrence of relatively large triggered earthquakes in Oklahoma are 1) the overall increase in injection volumes throughout the state in recent

  6. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems. (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof


    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  7. Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault (United States)

    Reilinger, Robert


    Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

  8. Seismostratigraphy and tectonic architecture of the Carboneras Fault offshore based on multiscale seismic imaging: Implications for the Neogene evolution of the NE Alboran Sea (United States)

    Moreno, Ximena; Gràcia, Eulàlia; Bartolomé, Rafael; Martínez-Loriente, Sara; Perea, Héctor; de la Peña, Laura Gómez; Iacono, Claudio Lo; Piñero, Elena; Pallàs, Raimon; Masana, Eulàlia; Dañobeitia, Juan José


    In the SE Iberian Margin, which hosts the convergent boundary between the European and African Plates, Quaternary faulting activity is dominated by a large left-lateral strike-slip system referred to as the Eastern Betic Shear Zone. This active fault system runs along more than 450 km and it is characterised by low to moderate magnitude shallow earthquakes, although large historical events have also occurred. The Carboneras Fault is the longest structure of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, and its southern termination extends further into the Alboran Sea. Previously acquired high-resolution data (i.e. swath-bathymetry, TOBI sidescan sonar and sub-bottom profiler) show that the offshore Carboneras Fault is a NE-SW-trending upwarped zone of deformation with a length of 90 km long and a width of 0.5 to 2 km, which shows geomorphic features typically found in subaerial strike-slip faults, such as deflected drainage, pressure ridges and "en echelon" folds. However, the neotectonic, depth architecture, and Neogene evolution of Carboneras Fault offshore are still poorly known. In this work we present a multiscale seismic imaging of the Carboneras Fault (i.e. TOPAS, high-resolution multichannel-seismic reflection, and deep penetration multichannel-seismic reflection) carried out during three successive marine cruises, from 2006 to 2010. The new dataset allowed us to define a total of seven seismostratigraphic units (from Tortonian to Late Quaternary) above the basement, to characterise the tectonic architecture and structural segmentation of the Carboneras Fault, and to estimate its maximum seismic potential. We finally discuss the role of the basement in the present-day tectonic evolution of the Carboneras Fault, and explore the northern and southern terminations of the fault and how the strain is transferred to nearby structures.

  9. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications[Dissertation 17286

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M


    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these

  10. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.


    The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

  11. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model. (United States)

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin


    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  12. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model (United States)

    Zhang, Shimin


    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

  13. Seismic slip history of the Pizzalto fault (Central Apennines, Italy) using in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating (United States)

    Delli Rocioli, Mattia; Pace, Bruno; Benedetti, Lucilla; Visini, Francesco; Guillou, Valery; Bourlès, Didier; Arnorld, Maurice; Aumaître, Georges; Keddadouche, Karim


    A prerequisite to constrain fault-based and time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast models is to acquire data on the past large earthquake frequency on an individual seismogenic source. Here we present a paleoseismological study on the Pizzalto fault using the in situ produced cosmogenic nuclide 36Cl (Schlagenhauf et al., 2011). The Pizzalto fault, located in central Italy about 50 km southeast of the epicenter of L'Aquila 2009 earthquake, is about 12 km long, SW dipping and belongs to the 30 km long Rotella-Aremogna active normal fault system. Recent activity along the Pizzalto fault is suggested by the presence of a continuous and linear 2 to 5 m high limestone fault scarp that was sampled every 10 cm at a site located in its particularly well-preserved central portion. 49 samples have been chemically processed and measured, and their 36Cl and Cl concentrations have been determined using isotope dilution mass spectrometry at the French AMS national facility ASTER located at CEREGE. Modeling the in situ 36Cl concentration with the scarp height allow deciphering the age and slip of the last major earthquake events on the fault. To derive those earthquake parameters, we used the published Matlab code from Schlagenhauf et al. (2011) that we implemented with a Monte Carlo approach to explore a large number of earthquake recurrence scenarios varying both the number of events, their slip and their ages. The "a priori" constraints input in the Monte Carlo code were: 1-the number of events, which is given by the stacking of individual probability density functions (assumed to be Gaussian) of each sample concentration; and, 2-the cumulative slip that should be equal to the height of the fault scarp. The first results show that 36Cl concentrations are reproduced better considering five events occurring over the last 5 ka and a previous one at about 13 ka. This suggests that most earthquake events clustered during a period of intense seismic activity preceded by a longer

  14. Unstable fault slip induced by lawsonite dehydration in blueschist: Implication for the seismicity in the subducting oceanic crusts (United States)

    Okazaki, K.; Hirth, G.


    Intermediate-depth earthquakes in cold subduction zones are observed within the subducting oceanic crust, as well as the subducting mantle In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes in hot subduction zones predominantly occur just below the Moho. These observations have stimulated interest in potential relationships between blueschist-facies metamorphism and seismicity, particularly through the dehydration reactions involving lawsonite. The rheology of these high-pressure and low-temperature metamorphic minerals is largely unknown. We conducted experiments on lawsonite accompanied by monitoring of acoustic emission (AE) in a Griggs-type deformation apparatus. Deformation was started at the confining pressure of 1.0 GPa, the temperature of 300 ˚C, and constant displacement rates of 0.16 to 0.016 μm/s, that correspond to equivalent strain rates (ɛ) of 9 × 10-5 to 9 × 10-6 1/s. In these experiments, temperature was increased at the temperature ramp rate of 0.5 to 0.05˚C/s above the thermal stability of lawsonite (600˚C) while the sample was deforming to test whether the dehydration reaction induces unstable fault slip. In contrast to similar tests on antigorite, unstable fault slip (i.e., stick-slip) occurred during dehydration reactions in the lawsonite gouge layer, and AE signals were continuously observed. Microstructural observations indicate that strain is highly localized along the fault (R1 and B shear), and the fault surface shows mirror-like slickensides. The unloading slope (i.e., rate of stress drop as a function of slip) during the unstable slip follows the stiffness of the apparatus at all experimental conditions regardless of the strain rate and temperature ramping rate. A thermal-mechanical scaling factor in the experiments covers the range estimated for natural subduction zones, indicating the potential for unstable frictional sliding within natural lawsonite layers to induce seismicity in cold subduction zones.

  15. Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, over two earthquake cycles, and the implications for seismic hazard (United States)

    Murray, J.; Langbein, J.


    Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 earthquakes in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 earthquake, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, earthquake. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles. This complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation.

  16. Preliminary Interpretations of Multi-Channel Seismic Reflection and Magnetic Data on North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey (United States)

    Gözde Okut Toksoy, Nigar; Kurt, Hülya; İşseven, Turgay


    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is 1600 km long, right lateral strike-slip fault nearly E-W elongated between Karlıova in the east and Saros Gulf in the west. NAF splays into two major strands near the west of Bolu city as Northern and Southern strands. Northern strand passes Sapanca Lake and extends towards west and reaches Marmara Sea through the Gulf of Izmit. The area has high seismicity; 1999 Kocaeli (Mw=7.4) and 1999 Düzce (Mw=7.2) earthquakes caused approximately 150 km long surface rupture between the Gulf of Izmit and Bolu. The rupture has four distinct fault segments as Gölcük, Sapanca, Sakarya, and Karadere from west to east. In this study multi-channel seismic and magnetic data are collected for the first time on the Sapanca Segment to investigate the surficial and deeper geometry of the NAF. Previously, the NAF in the eastern Marmara region is investigated using by paleo-seismological data from trenches on the surface rupture of fault or the geomorphological data (Lettis et al., 2000; Dikbaş and Akyüz, 2010) which have shallower depth targets. Crustal structure and seismic velocities for Central Anatolia and eastern Marmara regions are obtained from deeper targeted refraction data (Gürbüz et al., 1992). However, their velocity models do not have the spatial resolution to determine details of the fault zone structure. Multi-channel seismic and magnetic data in this study were acquired on two N-S directed profiles crossing NAF perpendicularly near Kartepe on the western part of the Sapanca Lake in October 2016. The receiver interval is 5 m, shot interval is 5-10 m, and the total length of the profiles are approximately 1400 m. Buffalo Gun is used as a seismic source for deeper penetration. Conventional seismic reflection processing steps are applied to the data. These are geometry definition, editing, filtering, static correction, velocity analysis and deconvolution, stacking and migration. Echos seismic software package in Geophysical Department

  17. Seismic constraints on a large dyking event and initiation of a transform fault zone in Western Gulf of Aden (United States)

    Ahmed, AbdulHakim; Doubre, Cecile; Leroy, Sylvie; Perrot, Julie; Audin, Laurence; Rolandone, Frederique; Keir, Derek; Al-Ganad, Ismael; Sholan, Jamal; Khanbari, Khaled; Mohamed, Kassim; Vergne, Jerome; Jacques, Eric; Nercessian, Alex


    that the geodetic moment is one order of magnitude higher than the seismic moment during such events, the seismic activity of this event of the Aden ridge represents a major rifting episode certainly associated with the opening of the segment by dyking estimated to be higher than 10 m. Several computed focal mechanisms are dextral strike-slip in the western part of the dyking area could be related to a nascent transform fault zone.

  18. Fault-related-folding structures and reflection seismic sections. Study by seismic modeling and balanced cross section; Danso ga kaizaisuru shukyoku kozo no keitai to jishin tansa danmen. 2. Seismic modeling oyobi balanced cross section ni yoru study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamagawa, T.; Matsuoka, T. [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Tsukui, R. [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan). Technology Research Center


    It occasionally happens that there exists a part where reflection near the thrust is not clearly observed in a thrust zone seismic survey cross section. For the effective interpretation of such an occurrence, the use of geological structures as well as the reflected pattern is effective. When the velocity structures for a fold structure having a listric fault caused anticline (unidirectionally inclined with a backlimb, without a forelimb) and for a fault propagation fold are involved, a wrong interpretation may be made since they look alike in reflection wave pattern despite their difference in geological structure. In the concept of balanced cross section, a check is performed, when the stratum after deformation is recovered to the time of deposition, as to whether the geologic stratum area is conserved without excess or shortage. An excess or shortage occurs if there is an error in the model, and this shows that the fault surface or fold structure is not correctly reflected. Positive application of geological knowledge is required in the processing and interpreting of data from a seismic survey. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  19. Geostatistically Trained Simulation-Optimization Linking Fluid Flow and Geomechanics to Mitigate Injection Induced Seismicity in Areas with Known and Unknown Faults (United States)

    Weingarten, M.; Gorelick, S.; Zoback, M. D.


    A current challenge in the ongoing mitigation of injection-induced seismicity is the lack of physics-based decision-making tools to aid the process. Operators and regulators have taken action in several regions prone to induced seismicity by reducing injection rates both locally in the vicinity of moderate-sized events and across larger regions. This process often lacks quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of the reductions being proposed. An enhancement to the current approach would utilize simulation-optimization, whereby flow and faulting processes are modeled and constrained physically while maximizing a desired decision variable such as cumulative injection rates of wells in a given area. Here we present a framework for simulation-optimization of injection into a basal sedimentary disposal formation that is hydraulically connected to crystalline basement faults - analogous to the Arbuckle formation overlaying crystalline basement in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We utilize probabilistic geomechanics and geostatistically derived flow properties to simulate a range of possible subsurface hydromechanics. The method is flexible and adaptable, minimizing induced seismic hazard while determining appropriate locations and rates of fluid injection, accounting for as much heterogeneity and anisotropy as desired. Additionally, we utilize training images to replicate faulting patterns from current induced seismic regions to gain insight into optimal operations for new regions with unknown active fault densities. Results show the method has the potential to successfully manage a disposal reservoir while avoiding critical perturbations of potentially hazardous faults.

  20. Cosmic muon imaging of hidden seismic fault zones: Rainwater permeation into the mechanical fractured zones in Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, Japan (United States)

    Tanaka, Hiroyuki K. M.; Miyajima, Hiroshi; Kusagaya, Taro; Taketa, Akimichi; Uchida, Tomohisa; Tanaka, Manobu


    We have developed a novel radiographic imaging method to survey the seismic fault hidden beneath the surface by measuring the rainfall permeation around the fault zone with cosmic-ray muon radiography. As an example, we performed measurements in Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL), Japan, and studied the feasibility of using this method. In this method, muons after passing through a fault zone are measured for different depths after major rain-fall events. When large amount of rain permeated gravitationally into the mechanical fractured zone around the fault gouge, the average density increases, hence, decreasing the number of muon events. The principle of the technique is that by measuring the time-dependent changes in muon absorption along different paths through the fault, one can image the permeable region in the interior of the object. A muon detector with an area of 3969 cm 2 was located 6 m from the fault outcrop in UNESCO Itoigawa Geopark. The outcrop is geologically well studied and the direction of the fault is approximately determined by linear extrapolation from the site, but is not parallel to the ISTL. An angular resolution of the muon detector of 100 milliradians (mrad) corresponds to a spatial resolution of 10 m at a distance of 100 m. The measurements would be ideal for studying the vertical or near-vertical strike-slip faults which cannot be well resolved by the conventional standard seismic reflection acquisition and processing that are designed to image reflectors that are close to horizontal. In this work, we have radiographically imaged the fault zone up to 50 m below the surface. A systematic delay in response to the rain-fall events was observed with increasing depth only along the fault zone, which corresponds to the position and direction of the seismic fault estimated from the geometry of the fault outcrop. Applying the same method to another direction, we discovered a new permeable region that is parallel to the ISTL. This permeable

  1. Static stress transfer within the Cephalonia Transfer Fault Zone (CTFZ) during the 2014 seismic sequence in Cephalonia and the 2015 earthquake in Lefkada (United States)

    Sboras, Sotiris; Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Karastathis, Vassilis; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos


    The 2014 seismic sequence in Cephalonia and the following 2015 earthquake in Lefkada Islands, Greece, showed that the Cephalonia Transfer Fault Zone (CTFZ), which runs along the western coasts of both islands, comprises a wide fault zone of parallel to sub-parallel fault segments. The January-February 2014 sequence of Cephalonia consisted of three moderate to strong events. According to published focal mechanisms, the first strongest shock (January 26, Mw 6.1) was produced by a W-dipping, oblique (right-lateral reverse) fault, the second (January 26, Mw 5.3) by a ENE-dipping, pure reverse fault and the third by a ESE-dipping, almost pure right-lateral strike slip fault. The November 17 2015 (Mw 6.4) Lefkada earthquake was produced by a WNW-dipping, roughly vertical, almost pure right-lateral strike-slip fault. None of the shocks above produced any direct coseismic ground rupture, while published relocated hypocentral locations for the Cephalonia sequence revealed various depths indicating a complex fault pattern. Based on published seismological, geological and satellite data (i.e. InSAR), the respective seismic sources were modelled in order to calculate the static stress changes i) during the Cephalonia and Lefkada sequences, and ii) after the sequences for the surrounding faults from the Greek Database of Seismogenic Sources (GreDaSS). Results showed that the February 3 2014 Cephalonia fault was variously affected by the rupture of the two January 26 faults. Stress change distribution on the fault plane showed that both stress drop and rise occurred. The November 17 2015 Lefkada fault was slightly loaded after the rupture of the whole Cephalonia fault system due to the great distance. The post-sequence stress changes variously affect the surrounding faults: the southern segment of the CTFZ is relieved from stresses, while the central ones show a mixed situation. The large northern segment, offshore from Lefkada Island, is mainly under stress drop. Stress drop is

  2. Comparison of methods for uncertainty analysis of nuclear-power-plant safety-system fault-tree models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.; Campbell, K.; Whiteman, D.E.; Booker, J.M.


    A comparative evaluation is made of several methods for propagating uncertainties in actual coupled nuclear power plant safety system faults tree models. The methods considered are Monte Carlo simulation, the method of moments, a discrete distribution method, and a bootstrap method. The Monte Carlo method is found to be superior. The sensitivity of the system unavailability distribution to the choice of basic event unavailability distribution is also investigated. The system distribution is also investigated. The system distribution is especially sensitive to the choice of symmetric versus asymmetric basic event distributions. A quick-and dirty method for estimating percentiles of the system unavailability distribution is developed. The method identifies the appropriate basic event distribution percentiles that should be used in evaluating the Boolean system equivalent expression for a given fault tree model to arrive directly at the 5th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the system unavailability distribution

  3. Interseismic Coupling on the Quito Fault System in Ecuador Using New GPS and InSAR Data and Its Implication on Seismic Hazard Assessment. (United States)

    Mariniere, J.; Champenois, J.; Nocquet, J. M.; Beauval, C. M.; Audin, L.; Baize, S.; Alvarado, A. P.; Yepes, H. A.; Jomard, H.


    Quito, the capital of Ecuador hosting two million inhabitants lies on an active reverse fault system within the Andes. Regular moderate size earthquakes (M 5) occur on these faults, widely felt within the city and its surrounding. Despite a relatively small magnitude of Mw 5.1, the 2014 August 12 earthquake triggered landslides that killed 4 people, cut off one of the main highways for several weeks and caused the temporary shutdown of the airport. Quantifying the seismic potential of the Quito fault system is therefore crucial for a better preparation and mitigation to seismic risk. Previous work using a limited GPS data set found that the Quito fault accommodates 4 mm/yr of EW shortening (Alvarado et al., 2014) at shallow locking depths (3-7 km). We combine GPS and new InSAR data to extend the previous analysis and better quantify the spatial distribution of locking of the Quito fault. GPS dataset includes new continuous sites operating since 2013. 18 ERS SAR scenes, spanning the 1993-2000 time period and covering an area of 85 km by 30 km, were processed using a Permanent Scatter strategy. We perform a joint inversion of both data set (GPS and InSAR) to infer a new and better-constrained kinematic model of the fault to determine both the slip rate and the locking distribution at depth. We find a highly variable level of locking which changes along strike. At some segments, sharp displacement gradients observed both for GPS and InSAR suggest that the fault is creeping up to the surface, while shallow locking is found for other segments. Previous Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment studies have shown that the Quito fault fully controls the hazard in Quito city (Beauval et al. 2014). The results will be used to improve the forecast of earthquakes on the Quito fault system for PSHA studies.

  4. Updated Long Term Fault Slip Rates and Seismic Hazard in the Central Alborz, Iran: New Constraints From InSAR and GPS (United States)

    Weston, J. M.; Shirzaei, M.


    The Alborz mountain range, located south of the Caspian Sea, accommodates 30% of the 25 mm/yr convergence between Arabia and Eurasia. The resulting shortening and left lateral motion is distributed over several active fault zones within the Central Alborz. Despite earlier efforts using only GPS data, little is known about the long term rate of vertical deformation and aseismic slip. Several historical earthquakes have affected this region, some of the largest of these events occurred on the Mosha fault which is close to the capital city, Tehran, which has a population of over eight million. Thus, constraining the interseismic slip rates in this region is particularly important. In this study we complement existing horizontal velocities from a regional GPS network, with line of sight velocities from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), to provide additional constraints on the vertical deformation and enhance the spatial coverage. Assuming a seismogenic depth of 30 km, based on microseismicity data, we solve for the geometry and long term slip rates on four major fault strands in this region. We obtain a long term slip rate of ~ 3 mm/yr for the Mosha and North Alborz faults, and ~ 10 mm/yr for the Khazar fault and Parchin faults. These rates and fault geometries are in agreement with earlier works, and fit the GPS data well. However, close to the fault traces there are large residuals in the InSAR data, suggesting that there is shallow creep (Khazar faults are creeping. This new observation of fault creep has direct implications for the seismic hazard in the region. On the Mosha fault we estimate a slip deficit equivalent to a Mw 7.0 event. The combination of InSAR and GPS provide vital information for assessing the interseismic deformation in the Central Alborz, and these results highlight the importance of closer monitoring of this region to better understand the seismic hazard.

  5. Low frequency full waveform seismic inversion within a tree based Bayesian framework (United States)

    Ray, Anandaroop; Kaplan, Sam; Washbourne, John; Albertin, Uwe


    Limited illumination, insufficient offset, noisy data and poor starting models can pose challenges for seismic full waveform inversion. We present an application of a tree based Bayesian inversion scheme which attempts to mitigate these problems by accounting for data uncertainty while using a mildly informative prior about subsurface structure. We sample the resulting posterior model distribution of compressional velocity using a trans-dimensional (trans-D) or Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method in the wavelet transform domain of velocity. This allows us to attain rapid convergence to a stationary distribution of posterior models while requiring a limited number of wavelet coefficients to define a sampled model. Two synthetic, low frequency, noisy data examples are provided. The first example is a simple reflection + transmission inverse problem, and the second uses a scaled version of the Marmousi velocity model, dominated by reflections. Both examples are initially started from a semi-infinite half-space with incorrect background velocity. We find that the trans-D tree based approach together with parallel tempering for navigating rugged likelihood (i.e. misfit) topography provides a promising, easily generalized method for solving large-scale geophysical inverse problems which are difficult to optimize, but where the true model contains a hierarchy of features at multiple scales.

  6. Reliability Analysis of Main-axis Control System of the Equatorial Antarctica Astronomical Telescope Based on Fault Tree (United States)

    LI, Y.; Yang, S. H.


    The Antarctica astronomical telescopes work chronically on the top of the unattended South Pole, and they have only one chance to maintain every year. Due to the complexity of the optical, mechanical, and electrical systems, the telescopes are hard to be maintained and need multi-tasker expedition teams, which means an excessive awareness is essential for the reliability of the Antarctica telescopes. Based on the fault mechanism and fault mode of the main-axis control system for the equatorial Antarctica astronomical telescope AST3-3 (Antarctic Schmidt Telescopes 3-3), the method of fault tree analysis is introduced in this article, and we obtains the importance degree of the top event from the importance degree of the bottom event structure. From the above results, the hidden problems and weak links can be effectively found out, which will indicate the direction for promoting the stability of the system and optimizing the design of the system.

  7. Generation Risk Assessment Using Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation: Case Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun


    Since 2007, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Kyung Hee University have collaborated on the development of the framework to quantify human errors broken out during the test and maintenance (T and M) in secondary systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The project entitled 'Development of Causality Analyzer for Maintenance/Test Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants' for OPR1000 on the basis of the proposed framework is still on-going, and will come to fruition by 2010. The overall concept of GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) which is the designation of the framework, and the quantification methods for evaluating risk and electric loss have introduced in other references. The originality emerged while implementing GRA-HRE could be evaluated in view of (1) recognizing the relative importance of human errors comparing with other types of mechanical and/or electrical failures, (2) providing the top-down path of the propagation of human errors by designating top events in the fault tree model as trip signals, and (3) analyzing electric loss using turbine cycle simulation. Recently, we were successfully to illustrate the applicability of GRA-HRE by simulating several abnormalities. Since the detailed methodologies were released enough to follow up, this paper is going to only exemplify the case studies

  8. Comparison between state graphs and fault trees for sequential and repairable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soussan, D.; Saignes, P.


    In French PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) 1300 for the 1300 Mwe PWR plants carried out by EDF, sequential and reparable systems are modeled with state graphs. This method is particularly convenient for modeling dynamic systems with long-term missions but induces a bad traceability and understandability of models. In the objective of providing elements for rewriting PSA 1300 with only boolean models, EDF has asked CEA to participate to a methodological study. The aim is to carry out a feasibility study of transposition of state graphs models into fault trees on Component Cooling System and Essential Service Water System (CCS/ESWS) and to draw a methodological guide for transposition. The study realized on CCS/ESWS involves two main axes: quantification of cold source loss (as an accident sequence initiating event, called H1); quantification of the CCS/ESWS missions in accident sequences. The subject of this article is to show that this transformation is applicable with minimum distortions of the results and to determine the hypotheses, the conditions and the limits of application of this conversion. (authors). 2 refs

  9. Fault tree analysis of Project S-4404, Upgrade Canyon Exhaust System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, E.V.; Low, J.M.; Lux, C.R.


    Project S-4404, Upgrade Canyon Exhaust Systems, is a $177 million project with the purpose of upgrading the Exhaust Systems for both F and H Canyon Facilities. This upgrade will replace major portions of the F and H-Canyon exhaust systems, downstream of their respective sand filters with higher capacity and more reliable systems. Because of the high cost, DOE requested Program Control ampersand Integration (PC ampersand I) to examine specific deletions to the project. PC ampersand I requested Nuclear Processes Safety Research (NPSR) to perform an analysis to compare failure rates for the existing F ampersand H Canyon exhaust systems with the proposed exhaust system and specific proposed exhaust system alternatives. The objective of this work was to perform an analysis and compare failure rates for the existing F ampersand H Canyon exhaust systems with the proposed project exhaust system and proposed project alternatives. Based on fault tree analysis, two conclusions are made. First, D ampersand D activities can be eliminated from the project with no significant decrease to exhaust system safety. Deletion of D ampersand D activities would result in a cost savings of $29 million. Second, deletion of DOE Order 6430.1A requirements regarding DBAs would decrease exhaust system safety by a factor of 12

  10. Analyzing dynamic fault trees derived from model-based system architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehlinger, Josh; Dugan, Joanne Bechta


    Dependability-critical systems, such as digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, necessitate engineering techniques and tools to provide assurances of their safety and reliability. Determining system reliability at the architectural design phase is important since it may guide design decisions and provide crucial information for trade-off analysis and estimating system cost. Despite this, reliability and system engineering remain separate disciplines and engineering processes by which the dependability analysis results may not represent the designed system. In this article we provide an overview and application of our approach to build architecture-based, dynamic system models for dependability-critical systems and then automatically generate Dynamic Fault Trees (DFT) for comprehensive, toolsupported reliability analysis. Specifically, we use the Architectural Analysis and Design Language (AADL) to model the structural, behavioral and failure aspects of the system in a composite architecture model. From the AADL model, we seek to derive the DFT(s) and use Galileo's automated reliability analyses to estimate system reliability. This approach alleviates the dependability engineering - systems engineering knowledge expertise gap, integrates the dependability and system engineering design and development processes and enables a more formal, automated and consistent DFT construction. We illustrate this work using an example based on a dynamic digital feed-water control system for a nuclear reactor

  11. Causative Fault of 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju Earthquake (SE Korea): Structural and Seismic characteristics (United States)

    Ha, S.; Cheon, Y.; Lee, Y.; Kim, J.; Kim, K. H.; Son, M.


    A ML 5.8 earthquake, the largest instrumental earthquake in the Korean peninsula, occurred on 12 September 2016 in the Gyeongju-city, SE Korea, where is regarded as a stable intraplate region. The earthquake was widely felt in the southern peninsula and had a maximum MMI VIII in the epicentral region. Most of the intraplate earthquakes occur along preexisting weaknesses, but the potentially seismogenic structures are mostly not exposed at the surface. This study focuses on (1) the structural features in the neighboring area of the epicenter, (2) the distribution of earthquake hypocenter locations during the first 10 days of the aftershock sequence of the Gyeongju earthquake, and (3) the focal mechanism solution of select events to reveal the geometry and kinematics of its causative fault. The earthquake hypocenters in plan view clearly show a linear distribution of N 28°E, which extends about 7 km southwestward from the Yangsan Fault to the Deokcheon Fault. In cross-sectional views along N28°E and perpendicularly, the hypocenters at depths between 11 and 16 km clearly delineate a subsurface fault which has a rupturing size of about 3 ´ 3 km2 and a dip of 78°SE. Based on focal mechanism solutions, the fault acted as dextral strike-slip fault under ENE-WSW compressional stress that has been widely known as the major component of current stress field in and around Korean peninsula. The general trend, N 28°E, of the seismogenic fault slightly differs from the strike of the adjacent NNE-striking Yangsan Fault with an angular difference of 15°. The Yangsan fault is the most prominent dextral strike-slip fault in SE Korea, which can be traced for 170 km with a right-lateral offset of 30 km. The strike-slip movement is well-reported to have occurred during the Paleogene. At that time, probably numerous subsidiary fractures, such as Y-, R-, R'-, and T fractures, in various directions were produced along the Yangsan master fault. It is thus interpreted that a large R

  12. Reliability study of the auxiliary feed-water system of a pressurized water reactor by faults tree and Bayesian Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lava, Deise Diana; Borges, Diogo da Silva; Guimarães, Antonio Cesar Ferreira; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail: [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)


    This paper aims to present a study of the reliability of the Auxiliary Feed-water System (AFWS) through the methods of Fault Tree and Bayesian Network. Therefore, the paper consists of a literature review of the history of nuclear energy and the methodologies used. The AFWS is responsible for providing water system to cool the secondary circuit of nuclear reactors of the PWR type when normal feeding water system failure. How this system operates only when the primary system fails, it is expected that the AFWS failure probability is very low. The AFWS failure probability is divided into two cases: the first is the probability of failure in the first eight hours of operation and the second is the probability of failure after eight hours of operation, considering that the system has not failed within the first eight hours. The calculation of the probability of failure of the second case was made through the use of Fault Tree and Bayesian Network, that it was constructed from the Fault Tree. The results of the failure probability obtained were very close, on the order of 10{sup -3}. (author)

  13. Revised seismic history of the El Pilar fault, Northeastern Venezuela, from the Cariaco 1997 earthquake and recent preliminary paleoseismic results (United States)

    Audemard, Franck A.


    In light of the July 9, 1997, Cariaco earthquake, it is clearly understood now that damage in the city of Cumaná located in northeastern Venezuela and frequently destroyed by the largest earthquakes since the first recorded event in 1530 is strongly enhanced by poor soil conditions that, in turn, are responsible for site amplification and widespread earthquake-induced effects. Therefore, most previous macroseismic studies of historical earthquakes must be revaluated because those localized high-intensity values at Cumaná surely led to the misestimation of past epicenters. Preliminary paleoseismic results, gathered at three exploratory trenches dug across the surface break of the Cariaco 1997 earthquake in 1998, allow us to associate the 1684 earthquake with this recently ruptured fault segment that extends between the towns of San Antonio del Golfo and Río Casanay (roughly between the two gulfs of Cariaco and Paria, state of Sucre). Other major results from the reassessment of the seismic history of this fault are: (a) the 1766 event seems to have generated in a different source to the El Pilar fault because the size of the felt area suggests that it is an intermediate-depth earthquake; (b) damage to Cumaná produced by the 1797 event suggests that this was a local earthquake, perhaps equivalent to the 1929 earthquake, which ruptured for some 30 km just east of Cumaná into the Gulf of Cariaco; and (c) seismogenic association of the 1530 and 1853 earthquakes still remains unclear but it is very likely that these ruptures occurred offshore, as suggested by the rather large tsunami waves that both events have generated, placing their hypocenters west of Cumaná in the Cariaco Trough. This reassessment also sheds light into the El Pilar fault segmentation and the behavior of its seismogenic barriers through time.

  14. Seismic detection of fault zone hydrocarbon conduit-seal potential using velocity, frequency, and Q analysis: La Concepcion Field, Lake Maracaibo Venezuela example (United States)

    Alahdal, Ahmed Omar

    The 3-D Post-Stack Time Migrated Seismic Data of La Concepcion Field, Maracaibo Basin, Venezuela cover an existing field with known oil and gas pay zones. The thesis problem is how to use this seismic data in an interpretation of leaky faults that occur in the exploration area of interest. A solution to the problem was obtained using an integrated geophysical approach that included published seismic attribute methods (Variance Cube, Geoframe IESX). Specific developments in this thesis to solve the interpretation problem of leaky faults in the region include (1) an image ray perturbation approach for updating the interval velocity in a faulted domain (2) a peak frequency approach to attenuation estimation within intervals and (3) a scaled interpretation of the velocity measurements at sonic, checkshot and surface seismic reflection data. The first development refines the interval velocities within fracture zones. The second development identifies anomalous attenuation most likely due to the presence of gas. The combined effects of low interval velocity and high attenuation are interpreted to be signs of leaking faults.

  15. Marine and land active-source seismic imaging of mid-Miocene to Holocene-aged faulting near geothermal prospects at Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G. [UNR; Driscoll, N. [UCSD; Karlin, R.; Baskin, R. [USGS; Louie, J. [UNR; Pullammanappallil, S. [Optim


    Amy Eisses, Annie Kell, Graham Kent, Neal Driscoll, Robert Karlin, Rob Baskin, John Louie, and Satish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic imaging of mid-Miocene to Holocene-aged faulting near geothermal prospects at Pyramid Lake, Nevada: presented at Geothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting, San Diego, Oct. 23-26.

  16. A closer look to the San Ramón fault seismicity in the west Andean thrust front of Santiago, Chile (United States)

    Vargas Easton, G.; Ammirati, J. B.; Potin, B.; Abrahami, R.; Rebolledo, S.; Barrientos, S. E.


    In Central Chile, most of the recorded seismicity is linked with the subduction of the Nazca plate and associated intra-slab deformation, under the South American plate. More to the east, a much smaller portion of the regional seismicity ( 5%) is related to thrusting deformation of the western cordilleran front of the south Central Andes. Although large earthquakes are far less frequent on this shallow region than on the plate boundary, paleoseismic studies evidenced the occurrence of at least 2 major episodes (Mw 7-7.5) over the past 17 kyr, associated with the San Ramón fault; the most obvious manifestation of the west Andean thrust system. The Santiago basin, located in the central valley at the western flank of the Andes, hosts close to 50% of the total Chilean population and thus receives particular attention. In order to better understand the seismicity of the San Ramón fault, the Chilean National Seismological Center (CSN) improved its permanent network with seven new broadband seismic stations, located around and over this geological structure. Because the number of events recorded is very large, we use a multiband array detection and seismic source location method to differentiate events associated with the San Ramón's system and those coming from other seismogenic zones. Our results show that the San Ramón fault and the west Andean thrust system in general, present seismic activity characterized by low magnitude events (Ml < 2.5). Preliminary seismic locations show focal depths around 8-12 km, in good agreement with the estimated depth of the west-vergent main décollement level associated to the western cordilleran front. In the future, event locations, magnitude and focal mechanism estimations will be improved in order to present a more complete catalog for a better assessment of seismic hazard in this region, together with the general tectonic evolution of the western cordilleran front of the south Central Andes.

  17. The seismogenic Gole Larghe Fault Zone (Italian Southern Alps): quantitative 3D characterization of the fault/fracture network, mapping of evidences of fluid-rock interaction, and modelling of the hydraulic structure through the seismic cycle (United States)

    Bistacchi, A.; Mittempergher, S.; Di Toro, G.; Smith, S. A. F.; Garofalo, P. S.


    The Gole Larghe Fault Zone (GLFZ) was exhumed from 8 km depth, where it was characterized by seismic activity (pseudotachylytes) and hydrous fluid flow (alteration halos and precipitation of hydrothermal minerals in veins and cataclasites). Thanks to glacier-polished outcrops exposing the 400 m-thick fault zone over a continuous area > 1.5 km2, the fault zone architecture has been quantitatively described with an unprecedented detail, providing a rich dataset to generate 3D Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models and simulate the fault zone hydraulic properties. The fault and fracture network has been characterized combining > 2 km of scanlines and semi-automatic mapping of faults and fractures on several photogrammetric 3D Digital Outcrop Models (3D DOMs). This allowed obtaining robust probability density functions for parameters of fault and fracture sets: orientation, fracture intensity and density, spacing, persistency, length, thickness/aperture, termination. The spatial distribution of fractures (random, clustered, anticlustered…) has been characterized with geostatistics. Evidences of fluid/rock interaction (alteration halos, hydrothermal veins, etc.) have been mapped on the same outcrops, revealing sectors of the fault zone strongly impacted, vs. completely unaffected, by fluid/rock interaction, separated by convolute infiltration fronts. Field and microstructural evidence revealed that higher permeability was obtained in the syn- to early post-seismic period, when fractures were (re)opened by off-fault deformation. We have developed a parametric hydraulic model of the GLFZ and calibrated it, varying the fraction of faults/fractures that were open in the post-seismic, with the goal of obtaining realistic fluid flow and permeability values, and a flow pattern consistent with the observed alteration/mineralization pattern. The fraction of open fractures is very close to the percolation threshold of the DFN, and the permeability tensor is strongly anisotropic

  18. Paleoseismologic data and seismic tomographic images of the 1992 Erzincan Earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey (United States)

    Caglayan, A.; Kaypak, B.; Isik, V.; Saber, R.; Yasar, I.


    The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), spanning over 1200 km from Karliova in eastern Turkey to the Aegean Sea, defines complex active fault zone. The zone consists of network of subfaults, each of varying geometry, and associated failure properties. The Erzincan basin, one of a series basins along the NAFZ, is active basin surrounding bedrock which is Mesozoic and Tertiary units. Available geophysical data constrain the total thickness of Pliocene and Quaternary sediments in the Erzincan basin to more than 2 km. The basin was affected by the 1992 March 13 Erzincan earthquake (Ms=6.8) showing weakly developed surface ruptures. We excavated 6 paleoseismic trenches along the southeastern termination of the 1992 rupture in Üzümlü area. A total of trenches is 294 m long and trends N20°-30°E. Exposed lithology in trenches is made up of alluvial fan deposites and fluvial facies with rare flood-plain sediments, which are characterized by stratified and/or lens-shaped pebble gravel to coarse-grained sand, silt, and clay. Our preliminary interpretation of trenches reveals evidence of 1992 earthquake features. Trench logs showing structural elements including normal faults, which are parallel to the strike of the trace of the NAFZ and dipping 40°-75° to the northeast and the southwest, and network of almost vertical fractures with a few centimeters displacement. Some of trenches contain well-developed flame structures, suggesting liquefaction of water-saturated sediments during earthquake. Seismic velocity (VP and VP/VS) images obtained from the 3-D local earthquake tomography using the arrival time data of aftershocks of the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake show several anomalies related to geological features of the Erzincan basin. The tomographic results indicate that (1) the major fault zones control the regional tectonics and the geometry of the Erzincan basin, (2) sediments of the basin show low seismic velocity, and (3) The high velocity units characterized by

  19. Marine and land active-source seismic imaging of mid-Miocene to Holocene-aged faulting near geothermal prospects at Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G. [UNR; Driscoll, N. [UCSD; Karlin, R.; Baskin, R. [USGS; Louie, J. [UNR; Pullammanappallil, S. [Optim


    Amy Eisses, Annie Kell, Graham Kent, Neal Driscoll, Robert Karlin, Rob Baskin, John Louie, and Satish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic imaging of mid-Miocene to Holocene-aged faulting near geothermal prospects at Pyramid Lake, Nevada: Geothermal Resources Council Transactions, 35, 7 pp. Preprint at The Pyramid Lake fault zone lies within a vitally important area of the northern Walker Lane where not only can transtension can be studied through a complex arrangement of strike-slip and normal faults but also geothermal activity can be examined in the extensional regime for productivity. This study used advanced and economical seismic methods in attempt to develop the Paiute Tribe’s geothermal reservoir and to expand upon the tectonics and earthquake hazard knowledge of the area. 500 line-kilometers of marine CHIRP data were collected on Pyramid Lake combined with 27 kilometers of vibrator seismic on-land data from the northwest side of the basin were collected in 2010 that highlighted two distinct phases of faulting. Preliminary results suggest that the geothermal fluids in the area are controlled by the late Pleistoceneto Holocene-aged faults and not through the mid-Miocene-aged conduits as originally hypothesized.

  20. Seismic potential of weak, near-surface faults revealed at plate tectonic slip rates. (United States)

    Ikari, Matt J; Kopf, Achim J


    The near-surface areas of major faults commonly contain weak, phyllosilicate minerals, which, based on laboratory friction measurements, are assumed to creep stably. However, it is now known that shallow faults can experience tens of meters of earthquake slip and also host slow and transient slip events. Laboratory experiments are generally performed at least two orders of magnitude faster than plate tectonic speeds, which are the natural driving conditions for major faults; the absence of experimental data for natural driving rates represents a critical knowledge gap. We use laboratory friction experiments on natural fault zone samples at driving rates of centimeters per year to demonstrate that there is abundant evidence of unstable slip behavior that was not previously predicted. Specifically, weak clay-rich fault samples generate slow slip events (SSEs) and have frictional properties favorable for earthquake rupture. Our work explains growing field observations of shallow SSE and surface-breaking earthquake slip, and predicts that such phenomena should be more widely expected.

  1. Joint inversion of gravity and seismic data along a profile across the seismogenic fault of 2010 Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Guangliang


    Full Text Available Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake occurred on the Ganzi-Yushu fault zone, across which we carried out a joint relative-gravity and seismic-reflection survey, and then performed a gravity inversion constrained by the seismic-reflection result. Based on the data of complete Bouguer gravity anomaly and seismic reflection, we obtained a layered interface structure in deep crust down to Moho. Our study showed that the inversion could reveal the interfaces of strata along the survey profile and the directions of regional faults in two-dimension. From the characteristics of the observed topography of the Moho basement, we tentatively confirmed that the uplift of eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet plateau was caused by the subduction of the Indian plate.

  2. Crustal seismicity and active fault system in the SE of Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raileanu, V; Bala, A.; Radulian, M.; Popescu, E.; Mateciuc, D.; Popa, M.; Dinu, C.; Diaconescu, V.


    Romania is known as a country with a high seismicity located in the Vrancea region where 2-3 strong intermediate depth earthquakes/century generate great damages and casualties. A moderate crustal seismicity is also observed in other zones of the country, with events having a moderate magnitude but sometimes with important economic and social effects on the locale scale. The crustal seismogenic zones are located in front of the Eastern Carpathian Bend, South Carpathians, Dobrogea, Banat, Crisana and Maramures regions. The SE part of Romania comprises some of the most active crustal seismic sources that generated earthquakes up to Mw=6.5 concentrated in more zones, namely: Vrancea crustal domain, E Vrancea zone that is overlapped on the Focsani basin, Barlad and Predobrogean depressions along with the North Dobrogea Orogen, Intramoesian and Shabla (Bulgaria) zones and Fagaras-Campulung-Sinaia zone. (authors)

  3. Intra-arc Seismicity: Geometry and Kinematic Constraints of Active Faulting along Northern Liquiñe-Ofqui and Andean Transverse Fault Systems [38º and 40ºS, Southern Andes (United States)

    Sielfeld, G.; Lange, D.; Cembrano, J. M.


    Intra-arc crustal seismicity documents the schizosphere tectonic state along active magmatic arcs. At oblique-convergent margins, a significant portion of bulk transpressional deformation is accommodated in intra-arc regions, as a consequence of stress and strain partitioning. Simultaneously, crustal fluid migration mechanisms may be controlled by the geometry and kinematics of crustal high strain domains. In such domains shallow earthquakes have been associated with either margin-parallel strike-slip faults or to volcano-tectonic activity. However, very little is known on the nature and kinematics of Southern Andes intra-arc crustal seismicity and its relation with crustal faults. Here we present results of a passive seismicity study based on 16 months of data collected from 33 seismometers deployed along the intra-arc region of Southern Andes between 38˚S and 40˚S. This region is characterized by a long-lived interplay among margin-parallel strike-slip faults (Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System, LOFS), second order Andean-transverse-faults (ATF), volcanism and hydrothermal activity. Seismic signals recorded by our network document small magnitude (0.2P and 2,796 S phase arrival times have been located with NonLinLoc. First arrival polarities and amplitude ratios of well-constrained events, were used for focal mechanism inversion. Local seismicity occurs at shallow levels down to depth of ca. 16 km, associated either with stratovolcanoes or to master, N10˚E, and subsidiary, NE to ENE, striking branches of the LOFS. Strike-slip focal mechanisms are consistent with the long-term kinematics documented by field structural-geology studies. Unexpected, well-defined NW-SE elongated clusters are also reported. In particular, a 72-hour-long, N60˚W-oriented seismicity swarm took place at Caburgua Lake area, describing a ca. 36x12x1km3 faulting crustal volume. Results imply a unique snapshot on shallow crustal tectonics, contributing to the understanding of faulting processes

  4. Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management (United States)

    Patterson, Jonathan D.; Johnson, Stephen B.


    The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to

  5. Investigating Strain Transfer Along the Southern San Andreas Fault: A Geomorphic and Geodetic Study of Block Rotation in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, Joshua Tree National Park, CA (United States)

    Guns, K. A.; Bennett, R. A.; Blisniuk, K.


    To better evaluate the distribution and transfer of strain and slip along the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) zone in the northern Coachella valley in southern California, we integrate geological and geodetic observations to test whether strain is being transferred away from the SSAF system towards the Eastern California Shear Zone through microblock rotation of the Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR). The faults of the ETR consist of five east-west trending left lateral strike slip faults that have measured cumulative offsets of up to 20 km and as low as 1 km. Present kinematic and block models present a variety of slip rate estimates, from as low as zero to as high as 7 mm/yr, suggesting a gap in our understanding of what role these faults play in the larger system. To determine whether present-day block rotation along these faults is contributing to strain transfer in the region, we are applying 10Be surface exposure dating methods to observed offset channel and alluvial fan deposits in order to estimate fault slip rates along two faults in the ETR. We present observations of offset geomorphic landforms using field mapping and LiDAR data at three sites along the Blue Cut Fault and one site along the Smoke Tree Wash Fault in Joshua Tree National Park which indicate recent Quaternary fault activity. Initial results of site mapping and clast count analyses reveal at least three stages of offset, including potential Holocene offsets, for one site along the Blue Cut Fault, while preliminary 10Be geochronology is in progress. This geologic slip rate data, combined with our new geodetic surface velocity field derived from updated campaign-based GPS measurements within Joshua Tree National Park will allow us to construct a suite of elastic fault block models to elucidate rates of strain transfer away from the SSAF and how that strain transfer may be affecting the length of the interseismic period along the SSAF.

  6. A Feasibility Study of an FEM Simulation Used in Co-Seismic Deformations: A Case Study of a Dip-Slip Fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Lin


    Full Text Available For this study, we conducted a numerical simulation on co-seismic displacement for a dip-slip fault in a half-space medium based upon a finite element method (FEM. After investigating technical problems of modeling, source and boundary treatment, we calculated co-seismic deformation with consideration to topography. To verify the numerical simulation results, the simulated co-seismic displacement was compared with that calculated using a dislocation theory. As a case study, considering the seismic parameters of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M 8.0 as a source model, we calculate the co-seismic displacements with or without consideration of the terrain model in the finite element model to observe terrain effects on co-seismic deformation. Results show that topography has a non-negligible effect on co-seismic displacement, reaching from -11.59 to 4.0 cm in horizontal displacement, and from -3.28 to 3.28 cm in vertical displacement. The relative effects are 9.05 and 2.95% for horizontal and vertical displacement, respectively. Such a terrain effect is sufficiently large and can be detected by modern geodetic measurements such as GPS. Therefore, we conclude that the topography should be considered in applying dislocation theory to calculate co-seismic deformations.

  7. Core-Log-Seismic Integrative Study of a Subduction Zone Megasplay Fault -An Example from the Nobeoka Thrust, Shimanto Belt, Southwest Japan (United States)

    Hamahashi, M.; Tsuji, T.; Saito, S.; Tanikawa, W.; Hamada, Y.; Hashimoto, Y.; Kimura, G.


    Investigating the mechanical properties and deformation patterns of megathrusts in subduction zones is important to understand the generation of large earthquakes. The Nobeoka Thrust, a fossilized megasplay fault in Kyushu Shimanto Belt, southwest Japan, exposes foliated fault rocks that were formed under the temperature range of 180-350° (Kondo et al., 2005). During the Nobeoka Thrust Drilling Project (2011), core samples and geophysical logging data were obtained recovering a continuous distribution of multiple fault zones, which provide the opportunity to examine their structure and physical properties in various scales (Hamahashi et al., 2013; 2015). By performing logging data analysis, discrete sample physical property measurements, and synthetic modeling of seismic reflections along the Nobeoka Thrust, we conducted core-log-seismic integrative study to characterize the effects of damage zone architecture and structural anisotropy towards the physical properties of the megasplay. A clear contrast in physical properties across the main fault core and surrounding damage zones were identified, where the fault rocks preserve the porosity of 4.8% in the hanging wall and 7.6% in the footwall, and P-wave velocity of 4.8 km/s and 4.2 km/s, respectively. Multiple sandstone-rich- and shale-rich damage zones were found from the drilled cores, in which velocity decreases significantly in the brecciated zones. The internal structure of these foliated fault rocks consist of heterogeneous lithology and texture, and velocity anisotropy ranges 1-18% (P-wave) and 1.5-80% (S-wave), affected by structural dip angle, foliation density, and sandstone/mudstone ratio. To evaluate the fault properties at the seismogenic depth, we developed velocity/earth models and synthetic modeling of seismic reflection using acoustic logs across the thrust and parameterized lithological and structural elements in the identified multiple damage zones.

  8. Fault analysis in the very shallow seismic reflection method. Part 3. Migration; Gokusenso hanshaho ni okeru danso kaiseki. 3. Migration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagumo, S.; Muraoka, S.; Takahashi, T. [OYO Corp., Tokyo (Japan)


    Concerning the analysis of data obtained by the seismic reflection method, migration in the very shallow layer is discussed. When the dip angle of the reflection plane involved is disclosed by DMO conversion, the amount of migration (travelling sideways) can be calculated by use of simple geometrical formulas though on the presumption that the sector velocity is constant. Categorized into this technique are such methods as DMO conversion migration, direct dip migration, F-K method, and finite difference method. This means that waveforms are not damaged by migration processing although elongation occurs due to time base conversion. When it is taken into account that waveform distortion is generally grave in the migration related methods widely in use, this feature has to be said valuable in holding information on faults. This is especially advantageous in the very shallow layer because the amount of migration is proportionally larger when the level is deeper and, in addition, migration processing is useful when it is necessary to know more accurately the character of the fault plane. 8 figs.

  9. The effect of water on strain localization in calcite fault gouge sheared at seismic slip rates (United States)

    Rempe, Marieke; Smith, Steven; Mitchell, Thomas; Hirose, Takehiro; Di Toro, Giulio


    Strain localization during coseismic slip in fault gouges is a critical mechanical process that has implications for understanding frictional heating, the earthquake energy budget and the evolution of fault rock microstructure. To assess the nature of strain localization during shearing of calcite fault gouges, high-velocity (vmax = 1m /s) rotary-shear experiments at normal stresses of 3-20 MPa were conducted under room-dry and wet conditions on synthetic calcite gouges containing dolomite gouge strain markers. When sheared at 1 m/s, the room-dry gouges showed a prolonged strengthening phase prior to dynamic weakening, whereas the wet gouges weakened nearly instantaneously. Microstructural analysis revealed that a thin (PSS) developed after several centimeters of slip in both dry and wet gouges, and that strain localization at 1 m/s occurred progressively and rapidly. The strain accommodated in the bulk gouge layer did not change significantly with increasing displacement indicating that, once formed, the high-strain layer and PSS accommodated most of the displacement. Thus, a substantial strain gradient is present in the gouge layer. In water-dampened gouges, localization likely occurs during and after dynamic weakening. Our results suggest that natural fault zones in limestone are more prone to rapid dynamic weakening if water is present in the granular slipping zones.

  10. Application of GPR for delineating the neotectonic setting and shallow subsurface nature of the seismically active Gedi fault, Kachchh, western India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurya, D M; Chouksey, V; Joshi, Parul N; Chamyal, L S


    The present field and GPR based investigations were carried out along the E–W trending Gedi Fault to precisely constrain the field location and shallow subsurface nature of the fault. The field investigations revealed the presence of thin Quaternary sedimentary cover, especially in the central and western part. Field examination of the scanty exposures showed that the fault trace marks the lithotectonic contact between Mesozoic rocks in the north and the Tertiary (Miocene) sediments to the south. Five sites were selected after field studies for GPR investigations of the Gedi Fault. The well-compacted Mesozoic rocks showed high amplitude returns while the softer and finer grained Tertiary sediments yielded low amplitude returns. The Quaternary sediments are reflected as consistent with wavy reflections in the upper parts of the profiles. The GPR data indicate that the Gedi Fault is a steep north dipping reverse fault which becomes vertical at depth. Since the fault does not displace the Quaternary deposits, we infer that the Gedi Fault has been characterized by low to moderate seismic activity under a compressive stress regime during the late Quaternary period. (paper)

  11. Permeability and seismic velocity and their anisotropy across the Alpine Fault, New Zealand: An insight from laboratory measurements on core from the Deep Fault Drilling Project phase 1 (DFDP-1) (United States)

    Allen, M. J.; Tatham, D.; Faulkner, D. R.; Mariani, E.; Boulton, C.


    The Alpine Fault, a transpressional plate boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates, is known to rupture quasiperiodically with large magnitude earthquakes (Mw 8). The hydraulic and elastic properties of fault zones are thought to vary over the seismic cycle, influencing the nature and style of earthquake rupture and associated processes. We present a suite of laboratory permeability and P (Vp) and S (Vs) wave velocity measurements performed on fault lithologies recovered during the first phase of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP-1), which sampled principal slip zone (PSZ) gouges, cataclasites, and fractured ultramylonites, with all recovered lithologies overprinted by abundant secondary mineralization, recording enhanced fluid-rock interaction. Core material was tested in three orthogonal directions, orientated relative to the down-core axis and, when present, foliation. Measurements were conducted with pore pressure (H2O) held at 5 MPa over an effective pressure (Peff) range of 5-105 MPa. Permeabilities and seismic velocities decrease with proximity to the PSZ with permeabilities ranging from 10-17 to 10-21 m2 and Vp and Vs ranging from 4400 to 5900 m/s in the ultramylonites/cataclasites and 3900 to 4200 m/s at the PSZ. In comparison with intact country rock protoliths, the highly variable cataclastic structures and secondary phyllosilicates and carbonates have resulted in an overall reduction in permeability and seismic wave velocity, as well as a reduction in anisotropy within the fault core. These results concur with other similar studies on other mature, tectonic faults in their interseismic period.

  12. GPS measurements of crustal deformation across the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault and implications to regional seismic hazard assessment (United States)

    Hamiel, Yariv; Masson, Frederic; Piatibratova, Oksana; Mizrahi, Yaakov


    Detailed analysis of crustal deformation along the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault is presented. Using dense GPS measurements we obtain the velocities of new near- and far-field campaign stations across the fault. We find that this section is locked with a locking depth of 19.9 ± 7.7 km and a slip rate of 5.0 ± 0.8 mm/yr. The geodetically determined locking depth is found to be highly consistent with the thickness of the seismogenic zone in this region. Analysis of instrumental seismic record suggests that only 1% of the total seismic moment accumulated since the last large event occurred about 800 years ago, was released by small to moderate earthquakes. Historical and paleo-seismic catalogs of this region together with instrumental seismic data and calculations of Coulomb stress changes induced by the 1995 Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake suggest that the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault is in the late stage of the current interseismic period.

  13. Implementing a C++ Version of the Joint Seismic-Geodetic Algorithm for Finite-Fault Detection and Slip Inversion for Earthquake Early Warning (United States)

    Smith, D. E.; Felizardo, C.; Minson, S. E.; Boese, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Guillemot, C.; Murray, J. R.


    The earthquake early warning (EEW) systems in California and elsewhere can greatly benefit from algorithms that generate estimates of finite-fault parameters. These estimates could significantly improve real-time shaking calculations and yield important information for immediate disaster response. Minson et al. (2015) determined that combining FinDer's seismic-based algorithm (Böse et al., 2012) with BEFORES' geodetic-based algorithm (Minson et al., 2014) yields a more robust and informative joint solution than using either algorithm alone. FinDer examines the distribution of peak ground accelerations from seismic stations and determines the best finite-fault extent and strike from template matching. BEFORES employs a Bayesian framework to search for the best slip inversion over all possible fault geometries in terms of strike and dip. Using FinDer and BEFORES together generates estimates of finite-fault extent, strike, dip, preferred slip, and magnitude. To yield the quickest, most flexible, and open-source version of the joint algorithm, we translated BEFORES and FinDer from Matlab into C++. We are now developing a C++ Application Protocol Interface for these two algorithms to be connected to the seismic and geodetic data flowing from the EEW system. The interface that is being developed will also enable communication between the two algorithms to generate the joint solution of finite-fault parameters. Once this interface is developed and implemented, the next step will be to run test seismic and geodetic data through the system via the Earthworm module, Tank Player. This will allow us to examine algorithm performance on simulated data and past real events.

  14. Paleoearthquakes and long-term seismic regime in the Longmenshan fault zone, Southwest China (United States)

    Liu, J.; Rodina, S. N.; Rogozhin, E. A.


    The collected paleoseismological data about the ancient earthquakes are analyzed for the zone of the Wenchuan earthquake. Four earthquakes with magnitude M = 8.0 occurred over a period of 10000 years and two earthquakes with magnitude 7.5 occurred over 1200 years. The obtained data allowed us to reconstruct the long-term seismic regime within the studied territory by constructing the frequency-magnitude relationship based on the instrumental, historical, and paleoseismological data.

  15. Paleoseismic observations along the Langshan range-front fault, Hetao Basin, China: Tectonic and seismic implications (United States)

    Dong, Shaopeng; Zhang, Peizhen; Zheng, Wenjun; Yu, Zhongyuan; Lei, Qiyun; Yang, Huili; Liu, Jinfeng; Gong, Huilin


    The Langshan range-front fault (LRF) is an active Holocene normal fault that borders Langshan Mountain and the Hetao Basin, northwest of the Ordos Plateau, China. In this study, paleoseismic trenching was undertaken at three sites (North-South): Dongshen village (TC1), Qingshan (TC2), and Wulanhashao (TC3). The paleoevents ED1, ED2, ED3 from TC1 were constrained to 6.0 ± 1.3, 9.6 ± 2.0, and 19.7 ± 4.2 ka, respectively. The single paleoevent (EQ1) from TC2 was constrained to about 6.7 ± 0.1 ka, and the paleoevents EW1, EW2, and EW3 from TC3 were constrained to 2.3 ± 0.4, 6.0 ± 1.0, and before 7.0 ka, respectively. With reference to previous research, the Holocene earthquake sequence of the LRF can be established as 2.30-2.43 (E1), 3.06-4.41 (E2), 6.71-6.80 (E3), 7.60-9.81 (E4), and 19.70 ± 4.20 (E5) ka BP. Events E1, E3, and E4 might have been caused by events with magnitudes of Mw 7.6-7.8 that ruptured the entire LRF. Event E2 might have been smaller magnitude, about M7.0, and ruptured only a portion of the fault. The vertical slip rate of the LRF at the Qingshan site is inferred as 0.9 or 1.4-1.6 mm/year in the last 6.8 ka. The slip rate at Wulanhashao is considered to have been close to, but not fault. Although the possibility of missing events in Late Pleistocene can not be dismissed, we argue the Holocene paleoearthquake history is complete, indicating an average recurrence interval of 2500 years.

  16. Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults (United States)

    Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi


    In the northern part of the Japan Trench, the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake (Mw 8.4), an outer-trench, normal-faulting earthquake, occurred 37 yr after the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake (Mw 8.0), a shallow, near-trench, plate-interface rupture. Tsunamis generated by both earthquakes caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast. Precise locations of earthquakes in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes have not previously been obtained because they occurred at considerable distances from the coast in deep water beyond the maximum operational depth of conventional ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). In 2015, we incorporated OBSs designed for operation in deep water (ultradeep OBSs) in an OBS array during two months of seismic observations in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes to investigate the relationship of seismicity there to outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes and near-trench tsunami earthquakes. Our analysis showed that seismicity during our observation period occurred along three roughly linear trench-parallel trends in the outer-trench region. Seismic activity along these trends likely corresponds to aftershocks of the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake and the Mw 7.4 normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 40 min after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Furthermore, changes of the clarity of reflections from the oceanic Moho on seismic reflection profiles and low-velocity anomalies within the oceanic mantle were observed near the linear trends of the seismicity. The focal mechanisms we determined indicate that an extensional stress regime extends to about 40 km depth, below which the stress regime is compressional. These observations suggest that rupture during the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake did not extend to the base of the oceanic lithosphere and that compound rupture of multiple or segmented faults is a more plausible explanation for that earthquake. The source area of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake is

  17. Cenozoic pulsed compression of Da'an-Dedu Fault Zone in Songliao Basin (NE China) and its implications for earthquake potential: Evidence from seismic data (United States)

    Yu, Zhongyuan; Zhang, Peizhen; Min, Wei; Wei, Qinghai; Zhao, Bin


    The Da'an-Dedu Fault Zone (DDFZ) is a major tectonic feature cutting through the Songliao Basin from south to north in NE China. Pulsed compression deformation of DDFZ during the Cenozoic implies a complex geodynamic process, and the latest stage of which occurred in the Quaternary directly influences the present seismicity of the interior basin. Although most of the evidence for Quaternary deformation about the Songliao Basin in the past decades was concentrated in marginal faults, all five earthquake swarms with magnitudes over 5.0 along the buried DDFZ with no surface expression during the past 30 years suggest it is a main seismogenic structure with seismic potential, which should deserve more attention of geologists. However, limited by the coverage of the Quaternary sedimentary and absence of strong historic and instrumental earthquakes records (M > 7), the geometric pattern, Quaternary activity and seismic potential of the DDFZ remain poorly understood. Thus, unlike previous geophysical studies focused on crust/mantle velocity structure across the fault and the aim of exploring possible mineral resources in the basin, in this study we have integrated a variety of the latest seismic data and drilling holes from petroleum explorations and shallow-depth seismic reflection profiles, to recognize the Cenozoic pulsed compression deformation of the DDFZ, and to discuss its implication for earthquake potential. The results show that at least four stages of compression deformation have occurred along the DDFZ in the Cenozoic: 65 Ma, 23 Ma, 5.3 Ma, and 1.8 Ma, respectively, although the geodynamic process behind which still in dispute. The results also imply that the tectonic style of the DDFZ fits well with the occurrence of modern seismic swarms. Moderate earthquake potential (M ≤ 7.0) is suggested along the DDFZ.

  18. Joint Seismic-Geodetic Algorithm for Finite-Fault Detection and Slip Inversion in the West Coast ShakeAlert System (United States)

    Smith, D. E.; Felizardo, C.; Minson, S. E.; Boese, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Murray, J. R.


    Finite-fault source algorithms can greatly benefit earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Estimates of finite-fault parameters provide spatial information, which can significantly improve real-time shaking calculations and help with disaster response. In this project, we have focused on integrating a finite-fault seismic-geodetic algorithm into the West Coast ShakeAlert framework. The seismic part is FinDer 2, a C++ version of the algorithm developed by Böse et al. (2012). It interpolates peak ground accelerations and calculates the best fault length and strike from template matching. The geodetic part is a C++ version of BEFORES, the algorithm developed by Minson et al. (2014) that uses a Bayesian methodology to search for the most probable slip distribution on a fault of unknown orientation. Ultimately, these two will be used together where FinDer generates a Bayesian prior for BEFORES via the methodology of Minson et al. (2015), and the joint solution will generate estimates of finite-fault extent, strike, dip, best slip distribution, and magnitude. We have created C++ versions of both FinDer and BEFORES using open source libraries and have developed a C++ Application Protocol Interface (API) for them both. Their APIs allow FinDer and BEFORES to contribute to the ShakeAlert system via an open source messaging system, ActiveMQ. FinDer has been receiving real-time data, detecting earthquakes, and reporting messages on the development system for several months. We are also testing FinDer extensively with Earthworm tankplayer files. BEFORES has been tested with ActiveMQ messaging in the ShakeAlert framework, and works off a FinDer trigger. We are finishing the FinDer-BEFORES connections in this framework, and testing this system via seismic-geodetic tankplayer files. This will include actual and simulated data.

  19. First-order and subsidiary faults controlling the time-space evolution of the Central Italy 2016 seismic sequence - a multi-source data detailed 3D reconstruction (United States)

    Lavecchia, Giusy; de nardis, Rita; Ferrarini, Federica; Cirillo, Daniele; Brozzetti, Francesco


    The Central Italy 2016 seismic sequence, with its three major events (24 August, Mw 6.0/6.2; 26 October Mw5.9/6.0; 30 October Mw6.5/6.6), activated a well-known active west-dipping extensional fault alignment of central Italy (Vettore-Gorzano faults, VEGO). Soon after the first event, based on geological, interferometric and at that moment available seismological data, a preliminary 3D fault model of VEGO was built. Such a model is here updated and improved at the light of a large amount of relocated earthquake data (time interval 24 August to 30 November 2016, 0.1≤ML ≤6.5, Chiaraluce at al., submitted to SRL) plus additional geological information. The 3D modeling was done using the software package MOVE from the Midland Valley. All the available data were taken into consideration (surface traces, fault-slip data, primary co-seismic surface fractures, geological maps and cross-sections, hypocentral locations and focal mechanisms of both background seismicity and seismic sequences). The VEGO geometric configuration did not substantially changed with respect to the previous model, but some additional structures involved in the sequence were reconstructed. In particular, four additional faults are well evident: a NE-dipping normal fault (dip-angle 50˚ ) antithetic to Vettore Fault, located at depths between 1 and 5 km; a WNW dipping plane (dip-angle 30˚ ) located at depth between 1 and 4 km within the Vettore footwall volume; this structure represents a splay of the late Miocene Sibillini thrust, which is evidently cross-cut and dislocated by the Vettore normal fault; a SW-dipping normal fault representing an unknown northward prosecution of the VEGO alignment, where since 26 October a relevant seismic activity was released; an unknown east-dipping low-angle detachment, where VEGO detaches at a depth of about 10-11 km. An uninterrupted microseismic activity has illuminated such a detachment not only during the overall sequence, but also in the previous months

  20. Subsystem fragility: Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (Phase I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, R. P.; Campbell, R. D.; Hardy, G.; Banon, H.


    Seismic fragility levels of safety related equipment are developed for use in a seismic oriented Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) being conducted as part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The Zion Nuclear Power Plant is being utilized as a reference plant and fragility descriptions are developed for specific and generic safety related equipment groups in Zion. Both equipment fragilities and equipment responses are defined in probabilistic terms to be used as input to the SSMRP event tree/fault tree models of the Zion systems. 65 refs., 14 figs., 11 tabs.

  1. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gülerce


    Full Text Available This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  2. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul (United States)

    Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin


    This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  3. Status and needs for seismic instrumentation of structures along the Hayward fault (United States)

    Kalkan, Erol; Çelebi, Mehmet


    The inventory of structures in heavily urbanized communities within the greater San Francisco (SF) Bay area that will experience strong ground motions from the rupture of the Hayward Fault includes a variety of types of recent and older structures built with a variety of materials and to different code standards. Those who remember the effects of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake on structures in the San Francisco Bay area also remember the collapse of one upper-deck segment of the Bay Bridge that halted transportation for approximately five weeks. In order to understand how these structures respond to earthquake motions and to improve building practices to resist these strong motions it is imperative that owners of these structures as well as governmental organizations acquire shaking response data from instrumented (or yet to be instrumented structures) during the forecast events. Within California, such data are acquired mainly by California Geological Survey and the United States Geological Survey. A small number of private owners contribute to this effort. The inventory of existing instrumented structures is much less than 0.1% of the total, and thus statistically it is not sufficient. For example, some of the existing important regular or lifeline structures are not instrumented(e.g. Bart Trans-Bay Tunnel, many segments of the Bart elevated structures in the proximity of the Hayward Fault, the yet to be completed eastern part of San Francisco Bay Bridge, Hetch-Hetchy pipeline system crossing the Hayward Fault)even though attempts and proposals have been developed to do so in the past. This paper presents a critical assessment of the status quo and the future needs for instrumentation of structures in the greater SF Bay area that includes the Hayward Fault. There are many new attempts and successes in instrumentation of structures in this region. Two successful examples are provided here, but more needs to be done. The paper does not present new research results

  4. Seismic probabilistic safety analysis of unit 1 of the Loviisa nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varpasuo, P.; Puttonen, J.; Ravindra, M.K.


    The seismic probabilistic safety assessment consists of five phases. In the seismic hazard analysis the seismicity of the plant site is quantified. In the second phase, the structural response of plant buildings is evaluated. On the basis of structural response, the seismic fragilities of selected plant components are developed. In the following phase, the plant logic in the form of fault trees and event trees is established. In the last step, quantification of the core damage risk on the basis of the above information is carried out. For the median value of the annual core damage frequency, a value of 4.4 x 10 -7 was determined. (orig.)

  5. Crustal Seismicity and Geomorphic Observations of the Chiripa-Haciendas Fault System: The Guanacaste Volcanic Arc Sliver of Western Costa Rica (United States)

    Lewis, J. C.; Montero Pohly, W. K.; Araya, M. C.


    It has recently been shown that contemporary northwest motion of the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica reflects a tectonic sliver that includes much of the upper-plate arc, referred to as the Guanacaste Volcanic Arc Sliver (GVAS). Here we characterize historical seismicity and geomorphic expressions of faults that define the northeastern margin of the GVAS. Several crustal earthquakes and their aftershocks provide constraints on the geometry and/or kinematics of the fault system. These include the Armenia earthquake of July 12, 2011, the Bijagua earthquake of January 27, 2002, the Tilarán earthquake of April 13, 1973 and two much older events. We summarize these earthquakes in the context of recent fault mapping and focal mechanism solutions, and suggest that most of the deformation can be explained by slip on steeply dipping NW-striking fault planes accommodating dextral slip. Streams that cross the major fault traces we have mapped also show deflections consistent with dextral slip. These include map-view apparent offsets of 6.5 km for the Haciendas River, 1.0 km for the Orosi River and 0.6 km for the Pizote River. Although preservation is poor, we document stream terrace risers that reveal truncations and/or offsets consistent with dextral slip. Additional constraints on the fault system are apparent as it is traced into Lake Nicaragua. Previous workers have shown that earthquake clusters accommodate a combination of dextral slip on NW-strike faults and sinistral slip NE-strike faults, the latter described as part of a system of bookshelf fault blocks. Whether the northeastern margin of the GVAS under Lake Nicaragua is a single fault strand or an array of bookshelf blocks remains an open question. An equally important gap in our understanding is the kinematic link of the fault system to the east where the GVAS originates. Our results set the stage for expanded studies that will be essential to understanding the relative contributions of Cocos Ridge collision and

  6. Fault zone architecture of the San Jacinto fault zone in Horse Canyon, southern California: A model for focused post-seismic fluid flow and heat transfer in the shallow crust (United States)

    Morton, Nissa; Girty, Gary H.; Rockwell, Thomas K.


    We report results of a new study of the architecture of the San Jacinto fault zone in Horse Canyon, California, where stream incision has exposed a nearly continuous outcrop of the fault zone at ~ 0.4 km depth. The fault zone at this location consists of a fault core, transition zone, damage zone, and tonalitic wall rocks. We collected and analyzed samples for their bulk and grain density, geochemical data, clay mineralogy, and textural and modal mineralogy. Progressive deformation within the fault zone is characterized by mode I cracking, subsequent shearing of already fractured rock, and cataclastic flow. Grain comminution advances towards the strongly indurated cataclasite fault core. Damage progression towards the core is accompanied by a decrease in bulk and grain density, and an increase in porosity and dilational volumetric strain. Palygorskite and mixed-layer illite/smectite clay minerals are present in the damage and transition zones and are the result of hydrolysis reactions. The estimated percentage of illite in illite/smectite increases towards the fault core where the illite/smectite to illite conversion is complete, suggesting elevated temperatures that may have reached 150 °C. Chemical alteration and elemental mass changes are observed throughout the fault zone and are most pronounced in the fault core. We conclude that the observed chemical and mineralogical changes can only be produced by the interaction of fractured wall rocks and chemically active fluids that are mobilized through the fault zone by thermo-pressurization during and after seismic events. Based on the high element mobility and absence of illite/smectite in the fault core, we expect that the greatest water/rock ratios occur within the fault core. These results indicate that hot pore fluids circulate upwards through the fractured fault core and into the surrounding damage zone. Though difficult to constrain, we speculate that the site studied during this investigation may represent

  7. Representation and propagation of uncertainty in seismic fragilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, D.W.


    Probabilistic seismic risk assessment involves the estimation of site seismic hazard for very low annual exceedance frequencies, and plant failure probabilities for beyond design basis seismic loading. Both of these estimates naturally involve uncertainties, and the way in which the uncertainties are represented can affect significantly the overall assessed seismic risk. To date, the usual representation of uncertainty in seismic fragility has been the log-normal distribution, although other analytic representations are equally consistent with the available seismic fragility information in many instances. The influence of such alternative forms of uncertainty representation is examined and, in addition, the compounding of these influences by propagation of the uncertainties through event trees or fault trees is discussed in the context of general methods of propagation

  8. The 2016 Seismic sequence in central Italy: a multi-method approach to constrain the geometry of the Mt. Vettore - Mt. Bove fault system (United States)

    Luiso, Paola; Paoletti, Valeria; Gaudiosi, Germana; Nappi, Rosa; Cella, Federico; Fedi, Maurizio


    Since August 24, 2016 a destructive seismic sequence has been occurring in Central Italy, between the Amatrice and Norcia towns. The seismic sequence started with the event of Mw 6.0 that was followed one hour later by the Mw 5.4 earthquake and by thousands of aftershocks along the NW-SE fault system extended for about 30 km. On October 26 the Mw=5.9 seismic event struck the area, followed by the strong Mw 6.5 earthquake on the October 30, at a depth of 9 km with epicenter located between the Norcia and Visso towns. The three months of seismicity activated the nearby 60 km long normal fault system of Mt. Vettore - Mt. Porche - Mt. Bove. The area was struck by several moderate to large earthquakes in historical times. In detail, in the Amatrice sector we mention the earthquakes of 1627 (Io=7-8 MCS, Mw 5.3), 1639 (Io=9-10 MCS, Mw=6.2), 1672 (Io=7-8 MCS, Mw=5.3) A.D. The main historical earthquakes of Valnerina, the area closest to the epicentre of the October 30 2016 earthquake, occurred in 1328 (Io=10 MCS, Mw=6.5), 1719 (Io= 8 MCS, Mw=5.6), 1730 (Io =9 MCS, Mw=6) 1859 (Io=8-9 MCS, Mw= 5.7) A.D. It is important also to remember the complex sequence of the 1703 A.D. (January 14, Valnerina, Io=11, Mw= 6.9; February 2, Aquilano, Io 10, Mw= 6.7) that had a considerably devastating impact on the area. Nevertheless, the historical seismicity correlated with the more external fault system of the Umbria-Marche-Abruzzi Apennine ridge is characterized by absence of strong energy seismicity along the Mt. Bove - Mt. Vettore- Vettoretto sector, suggesting that the fault system was "silent" until the 2016 seismic sequence. Our study consists in a multiparametric data analysis in GIS (Geographic Information System) environment which integrates tectonic, seismic and gravimetric datasets with the aim of investigating the neotectonic activity of the area. The gravimetric dataset contains the Multiscale Derivative Analysis (MDA) data of the gravity field, in which each maximum

  9. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change (United States)

    Huang, J. J.; Du, M.; McBean, E. A.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.


    Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr-1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  10. Snowball gouge-aggregates formed in experimental fault gouges at seismic slip rates (United States)

    Kim, J. H.; Ree, J. H.; Hirose, T.; Yang, K.; Kim, J. W.


    Clay-clast aggregates (CCA) have commonly been reported from experimental and natural fault gouges, but their formation process and mechanical meaning are not so clear. We call CCA snowball gouge aggregate (SGA) since its formation process is similar to that of snowball (see below) and CCA-like structure has been reported also from pure quartz and pure calcite gouges. Here, we discuss the formation process of SGA and its implication for faulting from experimental results of simulated gouges. We conducted high-velocity rotary shear experiments on Ca-bentonite gouges at a normal stress of 1 MPa, slip rate of 1.31 m/s, room temperature and room humidity conditions. Ca-bentonite gouge consists of montmorillonite (>95%) and other minor minerals including quartz and plagioclase. Upon displacement, the friction abruptly increases to the 1st peak (friction coefficient μ≈ 0.7) followed by slip weakening to reach a steady state (μ≈ 0.25~0.3). The simulated fault zone can be divided into slip-localization zone (SLZ) and low-slip-rate zone (LSZ) based on grain size. Spherical SGAs with their size ranging from 1 to 100 μm occur only in LSZ, and their proportion is more than 90%. Two types of SGA occur; SGA with and without a central clast. Both types of SGA show a concentric layering defined by the alternation of pore-rich (1-1.5 μm thick) and pore-poor layers (1.5-2 μm thick). Clay minerals locally exhibit a preferred orientation with their basal plane parallel to the layer boundary. We interpret that the pore-poor layers are clay-accumulated layers formed by rolling of SGA nuclei, and pore-rich layers correspond to the boundary between accumulated clay layers. Water produced from dehydration of clays due to frictional heating presumably acts as an adhesion agent of clay minerals during rolling of SGA. Since the number of layers within each SGA represents the number of rolling, the minimum displacement estimated from the number of layers and layer thickness of the

  11. Seismically-triggered soft-sediment deformation structures close to a major strike-slip fault system in the Eastern Alps (Hirlatz cave, Austria) (United States)

    Salomon, Martina Lan; Grasemann, Bernhard; Plan, Lukas; Gier, Susanne; Schöpfer, Martin P. J.


    We investigate episodic soft-sediment deformation structures cross-cut by normal faults preserved in unlithified finely laminated calcite rich sediments in the Hirlatz cave in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Austria). These sediments comprise varve-like alternations of brighter carbonate/quartz rich layers, and darker clay mineral rich layers. The deformed sediments contain abundant millimeter to centimeter-scale soft-sediment structures (load casts, ball-and-pillow structures), sheet slumps (thrust faults and folds), erosive channels filled with slides and chaotic slumps. After deposition and soft-sediment deformation normal faults developed within the entire sedimentary succession, an event that probably correlates with an offset of c. 10 cm of the passage wall above the outcrop. Our major conclusions are: (i) The sediments have a glacial origin and were deposited in the Hirlatz cave under phreatic fluvio-lacustrine conditions. The deposition and the soft-sediment deformation occurred most likely during the last glaciation (i.e. around 25 ka ago); (ii) The liquefaction and formation of the soft-sediment structures in water-saturated stratified layers was triggered by episodic seismic events; (iii) The internally deformed sediments were later displaced by normal faults; (iv) A possible source for the seismic events is the active sinistral Salzach-Ennstal-Mariazeller-Puchberger (SEMP) strike-slip fault which is located about 10 km south of the outcrop and plays a major role in accommodating the extrusion of the Eastern Alps towards the Pannonian Basin. To our knowledge, the described structures are the first report of liquefaction and seismically induced soft-sediment deformations in Quaternary sediments in the Eastern Alps.

  12. Internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone in the trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California, from data of dense seismic arrays (United States)

    Qin, L.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Qiu, H.; Share, P.-E.; Ross, Z. E.; Vernon, F. L.


    We image the internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) in the trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California, with seismic records from dense linear and rectangular arrays. The examined data include recordings from more than 20 000 local earthquakes and nine teleseismic events. Automatic detection algorithms and visual inspection are used to identify P and S body waves, along with P- and S-types fault zone trapped waves (FZTW). The location at depth of the main branch of the SJFZ, the Clark fault, is identified from systematic waveform changes across lines of sensors within the dense rectangular array. Delay times of P arrivals from teleseismic and local events indicate damage asymmetry across the fault, with higher damage to the NE, producing a local reversal of the velocity contrast in the shallow crust with respect to the large-scale structure. A portion of the damage zone between the main fault and a second mapped surface trace to the NE generates P- and S-types FZTW. Inversions of high-quality S-type FZTW indicate that the most likely parameters of the trapping structure are width of ˜70 m, S-wave velocity reduction of 60 per cent, Q value of 60 and depth of ˜2 km. The local reversal of the shallow velocity contrast across the fault with respect to large-scale structure is consistent with preferred propagation of earthquake ruptures in the area to the NW.

  13. Stress tensor computation from earthquake fault-plane solutions: an application to seismic swarms at Mt. Etna volcano (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Musumeci


    Full Text Available Fault-plane solutions of some tens of local earthquakes which occurred at Mt. Etna volcano during 1983-1986 have been inverted for stress tensor parameters by the algorithm of Gephart and Forsyth (1984. Three seismic sequences were focused on which respectively occurred during a flank eruption (June 1983, just after the end of a subterminal eruption (October 1984 and during an inter-eruptive period (May 1986. The application to the three sets of data of both the "approximate" and the "exact" methods evidenced the stability of results, and the stress directions are well defined in spite of the small number of events used for the inversion. The s1 obtained agrees with the regional tectonic framework, nearly horizontal and oriented N-S, only in the shallow crust, and just after the 1984 eruption. This supports the hypothesis of a tectonic control on the end of the eruptive activities at Mt. Etna. Conversely, results concerning the depth range 10-30 km are in apparent disagreement with other investigations (Cocina et al., 1997, as well as with the regional tectonics. The stress was here found homogeneous, but with s1 respectively trending ENE-WSW (June 1983 and E-W (May 1986. We suggest that the stress field could be temporarily modified by a local stress regime driven by the intrusion of uprising magma.

  14. Kinematic finite fault and 3D seismic wave propagation of the 24 August, 2016, Mw 6.0 central Italy earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Magnoni


    Full Text Available The magnitude Mw 6.0 earthquake of 24th August 2016 caused severe damages and nearly 300 fatalities in the central Italy region. Initial reports revealed an asymmetrical distribution of damage and coseismic effects, suggesting a major role of heterogeneities, both in the rupture history and in the geological structure of the region. Near realtime availability of seismological data afforded a timely determination of a finite fault model (Tinti et al., 2016. Here we test this source model by performing a 3D simulation of seismic wave propagation within a 3D structural model containing the major geological features of the region. Agreement between modeled seismograms and observed seismograms suggests that some complexities in the waveforms, such as high amplification in the region of the Mt. Vettore fault system, can be accounted for by complexities in the fault rupture and 3D structural models. Finally, the consistency of the hypothesis of two distinct events has been analyzed.

  15. Risk-based fault tree analysis method for identification, preliminary evaluation, and screening of potential accidental release sequences in nuclear fuel cycle operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.; Pelto, P.J.; Stevens, D.L.; Seybold, G.D.; Purcell, W.L.; Kimmel, L.V.


    A method is described for identification, preliminary evaluation, and screening of potential accident sequences leading to uncontrolled release of radioactive materials. Included is a procedure for estimating the risk sum of all identified sequences. In addition, portions of the procedures have been developed for detailed analysis of the dominant (highest risk) sequences so screened. This method was developed for the ERDA-sponsored risk analysis of systems for managing high-level waste, part of the Waste Fixation Program (WFP). The method begins with certain preliminary analyses. The facility and operation are described and analysis bounds are established. A type of fault tree construction, the ''to/through'' approach, was chosen for the WFP waste management system. The to/through fault tree approach offers advantages over others in several respects. The analysis is considered more complete because the system is treated as a whole. The screening process was successfully demonstrated on a conceptual waste management system for the Waste Fixation Program. Fault trees were constructed and evaluated for processing, handling, transporting, and storing high-level waste. Trees of up to 14,000,000 release sequences (BICS-Boolean-indicated cut sets) were screened and the top few hundred or thousand sequences preliminarily ranked. An estimate of the total risk represented in the fault tree was also obtained. (auth)

  16. A missing-link in the tectonic configuration of the Almacık Block along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NW Turkey): Active faulting in the Bolu plain based on seismic reflection studies (United States)

    Seyitoğlu, Gürol; Ecevitoğlu, Berkan; Kaypak, Bülent; Esat, Korhan; Çağlayan, Ayşe; Gündoğdu, Oğuz; Güney, Yücel; Işık, Veysel; Pekkan, Emrah; Tün, Muammer; Avdan, Uğur


    The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) starts to branch off in the western Bolu plain. The branches of the NAFZ in this location create the Almacık block which is surrounded by the latest surface ruptures of significant earthquakes that occurred between 1944 and 1999, but its northeastern part remains unruptured. The most recently formed rupture, that was a result of the 1999 November 12 Düzce earthquake, ended to the northwest of the Bakacak Fault. The connection between the Bakacak Fault and the main branch of the NAFZ via the Bolu plain has until now remained unknown. This paper establishes that the route of the missing link runs through the Dağkent, Kasaplar and Bürnük faults, a finding achieved with the help of seismic reflection studies. The paper also argues that the cross cutting nature of these newly determined faults and a stress analysis based on focal mechanism solutions of recent earthquakes demonstrate the termination of the suggested pull-apart nature of the Bolu plain.

  17. A prototype expert system to support the development of a fault-tree analysis software for nuclear reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mesko, L.


    The project called EMERIS is designed to provide a material testing nuclear reactor and experimental loops with a software for the 'acquisition, evaluation and archivation of measured data during the operation of the experimental facility'. The project which gives job a team has a duration of two years and involves three Vax compatible TPA-type computers and many smaller computers for data digitalization and graphical workstations. The detailed description of the project is not the task of the paper. One of its modules, however, plays an important role in the considerations. Namely the module for distrubance analysis (DA) which is planned to perform a rule based on-line evaluation of numerous predefined fault trees in an expert system like environment

  18. Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran☆ (United States)

    Nouri.Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad


    Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed. PMID:26779433

  19. Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran. (United States)

    Nouri Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad


    Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed.

  20. An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun


    In the nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model to Dynamic Safety System(DDS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic

  1. Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees: Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead (United States)

    Rodak, C.; Silliman, S.


    Wellhead protection is of critical importance for managing groundwater resources. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for addressing wellhead protection in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health of the receiving population are limited. It is herein suggested that probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) provides a structure whereby chemical transport can be combined with uncertainties in source, chemistry, and health impact to assess the probability of negative health outcomes in the population. As such, PRA-FT provides a new strategy for the identification of areas of probabilistically high human health risk. Application of this approach is demonstrated through a simplified case study involving flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer with heterogeneity in aquifer properties and contaminant sources.

  2. Safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal into geological formations; a preliminary application of fault tree analysis to salt deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertozzi, B.; D'Alessandro, M.; Girardi, F.; Vanossi, M.


    The methodology of the fault tree analysis (FTA) has been widely used at the Joint Research Centre of Ispra in nuclear reactor safety studies. The aim of the present work consisted in studying the applicability of this methodology to geological repositories of radioactive wastes, including criteria and approaches for the quantification of probalities of primary events. The present work has just an illustrative purpose. Two ideal cases of saline formations, I.E. a bedded salt and a diapir were chosen as potential disposal sites for radioactive waste. On the basis of arbitrarily assumed hydrogeological features of the salt formations and their surrounding environment, possible phenomena capable of causing the waste to be released from each formation have been discussed and gathered following the logical schemes of the FTA. The assessment of probability values for release events due to natural causes as well as to human actions, over different time periods, up to one million years, has been discussed

  3. Seismic reflection survey of the Uemachi fault in Osaka Prefecture; Osaka Uemachi danso no hanshaho danseiha tansa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugiyama, Y. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan); Yoshizawa, M.; Hirooka, S. [Nikko Exploration and Development Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Yokota, H.; Ito, S. [Hanshin Consultant Co., Osaka (Japan); Hayashi, K.; Aizawa, H.


    Reflection survey is conducted using three traverse lines in Sakai City for confirming the presence of a southward stretch of the Uemachi fault underground along the western periphery of the Uemachi terrace, Osaka, and for elucidating its connection to the Sakamoto fault distributed near Izumi. Another reflection survey is conducted in the bed of Kanzaki river, Osaka, for the confirmation of its connection to the Nembutsuji-zan fault in Senri hillock. It is estimated on the basis of boring data that there exists another flexural structure approximately 3km south of the flexural structure whose presence is confirmed by the Sakai second traverse line. Accordingly, possibilities are high that the southward stretch of the Uemachi fault connects to the Sakamoto fault. The confirmation by the Kanzaki river traverse line of the flexural structure again confirms the continuity between the Uemachi fault and Nembutsuji-zan fault. The above-said findings enable an inference that the three faults of Nembutsuji-zan, Uemachi, and Sakamoto constitute a chain of active faults. Furthermore, there exists an active fault to the south of the Sakamoto fault, which zigzags to the south on the right-hand side as far as the south of the Kumeda pond. Accordingly, the Uemachi fault system as a whole spans approximately 43km from the northern end of the Nembutsuji-zan fault as far as the south of the Kumeda pond. 5 refs., 6 figs.

  4. A method and example of seismically imaging near‐surface fault zones in geologically complex areas using Vp, Vs, and their ratios (United States)

    Catchings, Rufus D.; Rymer, Michael J.; Goldman, Mark R.; Sickler, Robert R.; Criley, Coyn J.


    The determination of near‐surface (vadose zone and slightly below) fault locations and geometries is important because assessment of ground rupture, strong shaking, geologic slip rates, and rupture histories occurs at shallow depths. However, seismic imaging of fault zones at shallow depths can be difficult due to near‐surface complexities, such as weathering, groundwater saturation, massive (nonlayered) rocks, and vertically layered strata. Combined P‐ and S‐wave seismic‐refraction tomography data can overcome many of the near‐surface, fault‐zone seismic‐imaging problems because of differences in the responses of elastic (bulk and shear) moduli of P and S waves to shallow‐depth, fault‐zone properties. We show that high‐resolution refraction tomography images of P‐ to S‐wave velocity ratios (VP/VS) can reliably identify near‐surface faults. We demonstrate this method using tomography images of the San Andreas fault (SAF) surface‐rupture zone associated with the 18 April 1906 ∼M 7.9 San Francisco earthquake on the San Francisco peninsula in California. There, the SAF cuts through Franciscan mélange, which consists of an incoherent assemblage of greywacke, chert, greenstone, and serpentinite. A near‐vertical zone (∼75° northeast dip) of high P‐wave velocities (up to 3000  m/s), low S‐wave velocities (∼150–600  m/s), high VP/VS ratios (4–8.8), and high Poisson’s ratios (0.44–0.49) characterizes the main surface‐rupture zone to a depth of about 20 m and is consistent with nearby trench observations. We suggest that the combined VP/VSimaging approach can reliably identify most near‐surface fault zones in locations where many other seismic methods cannot be applied.

  5. Methodology for seismic risk analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Perla, H.F.; Bley, D.C.


    This methodology begins by quantifying the fragilty of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process

  6. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR: status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, T.Y.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Wells, J.E.; Johnson, J.J.


    The seismic risk methodology developed in the US NRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR). A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models was developed and analyzed. The SSMRP methodology can equally be applied to a boiling water reactor (BWR). To demonstrate its applicability, to identify fundamental differences in seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR, and to provide a basis of comparison of seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR when analyzed with comparable methodology and assumptions, a seismic risk analysis is being performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant

  7. A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purba, Julwan Hendry


    Highlights: • We propose a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic event reliabilities. • It implements the concepts of failure possibilities and fuzzy sets. • Experts evaluate basic event failure possibilities using qualitative words. • Triangular fuzzy numbers mathematically represent qualitative failure possibilities. • It is a very good alternative for conventional reliability approach. - Abstract: Fault tree analysis has been widely utilized as a tool for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. This analysis can be completed only if all basic events of the system fault tree have their quantitative failure rates or failure probabilities. However, it is difficult to obtain those failure data due to insufficient data, environment changing or new components. This study proposes a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of system fault trees whose failure precise probability distributions of their lifetime to failures are not available. It applies the concept of failure possibilities to qualitatively evaluate basic events and the concept of fuzzy sets to quantitatively represent the corresponding failure possibilities. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the actual basic event failure probabilities collected from the operational experiences of the David–Besse design of the Babcock and Wilcox reactor protection system fault tree are used to benchmark the failure probabilities generated by the proposed approach. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy-based reliability approach arises as a suitable alternative for the conventional probabilistic reliability approach when basic events do not have the corresponding quantitative historical failure data for determining their reliability characteristics. Hence, it overcomes the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

  8. How Faults Shape the Earth. (United States)

    Bykerk-Kauffman, Ann


    Presents fault activity with an emphasis on earthquakes and changes in continent shapes. Identifies three types of fault movement: normal, reverse, and strike faults. Discusses the seismic gap theory, plate tectonics, and the principle of superposition. Vignettes portray fault movement, and the locations of the San Andreas fault and epicenters of…

  9. Study of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability through the fault tree analysis and common cause failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrado, C.A.


    The present essay offers a comprehensive research of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability, including Fault Tree Analysis and Common Cause Failures (CCF) treatment. The study is developed within the Event Tree perspective that considers the loss of external electrical power of the initiating event. The event was constructed by the Safety Evaluations Division of the Ezeiza Atomic Center in Argentina. According to the Event Tree, the research includes system demand during plant operation with 132 KV and emergency generation (Diesel motor generators). The system unavailability assessment is approached in two different ways: a) Considering independent failures only. b) Taking into account the existence of Common Cause Events, and modeling dependent failures. The Fault Tree quantification is played using the AIEA PSAPACK Code. The assessment data base is compiled from plant specific records and generic data bases like TECDOC 478. After Fault Tree model logic development, some general procedures used in common cause failures treating are applied to pick up another set of solutions. The results of the study are: a) Four Fault Trees have been developed to model the abovementioned system: 132 KV and emergency generation, both including and excluding CCF. b) The following unavailability values were obtained: 132 KV independent failures only: 7 10 -4 . Emergency generation independent failures only: 1.53 10 -2 . 132 KV dependent and independent failures: 3.6 10 -3 . Emergency generation dependent and independent failures: 1.74 10 -2 . The major conclusions obtained from the precedent results are: a) When using 132 KV system configuration, minimal cut sets involving common cause failures represents 81%from total system unavailability. b) The dependent failures treatment is an important task to be considered in safety assessments in order to reach more realistic values. (Author) [es

  10. Modeling of fault activation and seismicity by injection directly into a fault zone associated with hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs (United States)

    LBNL, in consultation with the EPA, expanded upon a previous study by injecting directly into a 3D representation of a hypothetical fault zone located in the geologic units between the shale-gas reservoir and the drinking water aquifer.

  11. Korea-Japan Joint Research on Development of Seismic Capacity Evaluation and Enhancement Technology Considering Near-Fault Effect (Final Report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Choi, In Kil; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Ohtori, Yasuki; Shiba, Yoshiaki; Nakajima, Masato [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)


    We compiled the results of the source analysis obtained under the collaboration research. Recent construction scheme for source modeling adopted in Japan is described, and strong-motion prediction is performed assuming the scenario earthquakes occurring in the Ulsan fault system, Korea. Finally Qs values beneath the Korean inland crust are estimated using strong-motion records in Korea from the 2005 Off West Fukuoka earthquake (M7.0). Probabilistic seismic hazard for four NPP sites in Korea are evaluated, in which the site specific attenuation equations with Index SA developed for NPP sites are adopted. Furthermore, the uniform hazard spectra for the four NPP sites in Korea are obtained by conducting the PSHA by using the attenuation equations with the index of response spectra and seismic source model cases with maximum weights. The supporting tools for seismic response analysis, the evaluation tool for evaluating annual probability of failure, and system analysis program were developed for the collaboration. The tools were verified with theoretical results, the results written in the reference document of EQESRA, and so forth. The system analysis program was applied for the investigation of the effect of improving the seismic capacity of equipment. We evaluated the annual probability of failure of isolated and non-isolated EDG at Younggwang NPP site as the results of the collaboration. The input ground motion for generating the seismic fragility curve was determined based on the seismic hazard analysis. It was found that the annual probability of failure of isolated EDG is lower than that of non-isolated EDG.

  12. Multiple Event Analysis of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake: Implications for Variations in Radiated Seismic Energy During Faulting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruey-Der Hwang


    Full Text Available A forward modeling of P-waves for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake revealed at least seven sub-events that occurred during faulting with the largest event (i.e., the third sub-event located at a position ~50 km northeast of the epicenter. Simulations of P-waves showed that it would be more appropriate to model the P-waves using thrust faulting for the first three sub-events and using strike-slip faulting for the last four. In other words, the faulting for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was composed substantially of two mechanisms; the former was a thrust faulting and the latter was a strike-slip rupture. The mechanical transition was near the town of Beichuan, ~100 km northeast of the epicenter. Variations in radiated seismic energy (ES showed the largest ES released from the fourth sub-event. Results also indicated remarkable distinctions between ES and ES0 (called the available energy. On the whole, the total ES, which was higher than ES0 estimated from static stress drop, suggested that the earthquake should be interrupted by a stress model of abrupt-locking. Further, the former thrust faulting released a relatively lower amount of ES than the latter strike-slip event. Orowan¡¦s stress model, i.e., ES ≈ ES0, can specify former thrust ruptures implying a high rupture velocity. Because ES > ES0 for latter strike-slip ruptures, a stress model of abrupt-locking, implying higher dynamic stress drop and lower friction during an earthquake, can account for the feature of the latter ruptures. This might suggest that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake should have a high rupture velocity, perhaps approaching the crustal S-wave velocity or even higher.

  13. Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations (United States)

    Fuis, Gary S.; Bauer, Klaus; Goldman, Mark R.; Ryberg, Trond; Langenheim, Victoria; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Rymer, Michael J.; Stock, Joann M.; Hole, John A.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Graves, Robert; Aagaard, Brad T.


    The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a fault‐crossing profile just north of the Salton Sea, sedimentary basin depth reaches 4 km southwest of the SAF. On our line 6, a fault‐crossing profile at the north end of the Coachella Valley, sedimentary basin depth is ∼2–3  km">∼2–3  km and centered on the central, most active trace of the SAF. Subsurface geometry of the SAF and nearby faults along these two lines is determined using a new method of seismic‐reflection imaging, combined with potential‐field studies and earthquakes. Below a 6–9 km depth range, the SAF dips ∼50°–60°">∼50°–60° NE, and above this depth range it dips more steeply. Nearby faults are also imaged in the upper 10 km, many of which dip steeply and project to mapped surface fault traces. These secondary faults may join the SAF at depths below about 10 km to form a flower‐like structure. In Appendix D, we show that rupture on a northeast‐dipping SAF, using a single plane that approximates the two dips seen in our study, produces shaking that differs from shaking calculated for the Great California ShakeOut, for which the southern SAF was modeled as vertical in most places: shorter‐period (TTfault.

  14. The multi-parameter borehole system and high resolution seismic studies in the western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of MARSITE Project. (United States)

    Ozel, Oguz; Guralp, Cansun; Tunc, Suleyman; Yalcinkaya, Esref


    The main objective of this study is to install a multi-parameter borehole system and surface array as close to the main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the western Marmara Sea as possible, and measure continuously the evolution of the state of the fault zone surrounding the MMF and to detect any anomaly or change, which may occur before earthquakes by making use of the data from the arrays already running in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea. The multi-parameter borehole system is composed of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, and incorporate strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices. The borehole seismic station uses the latest update technologies and design ideas to record "Earth tides" signals to the smallest magnitude -3 events. Additionally, a surface microearthquake observation array, consisting of 8-10 seismometers around the borehole is established to obtain continuous high resolution locations of micro-seismicity and to better understand the existing seismically active structures and their roles in local tectonic settings.Bringing face to face the seismograms of microearthquakes recorded by borehole and surface instruments portrays quite different contents. The shorter recording duration and nearly flat frequency spectrum up to the Nyquist frequencies of borehole records are faced with longer recording duration and rapid decay of spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies of a surface seismogram. The main causative of the observed differences are near surface geology effects that mask most of the source related information the seismograms include, and that give rise to scattering, generating longer duration seismograms. In view of these circumstances, studies on microearthquakes employing surface seismograms may bring on misleading results. Particularly, the works on earthquake physics and nucleation process of earthquakes requires elaborate analysis of tiny events. It is

  15. Seismicity in northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2011, Queretaro, Mexico (United States)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Arroyo, M.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.


    The Peñamiller town, in the Queretaro state, Mexico is located at the northeast border of the seismogenic zone known as the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), which covers a central fringe of Mexico with east-west orientation. In this town, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred during the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Seismicity frequent in of the continental regimen of central Mexico are not common, however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw magnitude greater than 6.0) occurring in this zone. In order to enrich seismic information, which has not been analyzed nor documented until this moment, is presented this work. This will contribute to gain more insight into the tectonic situation of the central Mexico region. Twenty-four shallow earthquakes records of the Peñamiller, Queretaro seismic sequence of 2011 were recorded by a provisional accelerograph network from the Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro (UAQ). The data were analysed in order to determine the source locations and for the estimation of the source parameters. The study was carried out through an inversion process and by spectral analysis. The results show that the largest earthquake, occurred on 8 February 2011 at 19:53:48.6 UTC, had a moment magnitude Mw = 3.5, and was located at latitude 21.039° and longitude -99.752°, at a depth of 5.6 km. This zone is located less than 7 km away in south-east direction from downtown Peñamiller. The focal mechanisms are mostly normal faults with a small lateral component. This feature is consistent with the extensional regimen of the southern extension of the Basin and Range (BR) province. The source area of the largest event was estimated to have a radius of 0.5 km, which corresponds to a normal fault with azimuth of 174° and an almost pure dip slip; this caused Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of up to 100 cm s-2 in the horizontal direction. It is evident that the shallow earthquakes induced by crustal faulting can present a

  16. Effect Analysis of Digital I and C Systems on Plant Safety based on Fault-Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea


    Deterioration and an inadequate supply of components of analog I and C systems have led to inefficient and costly maintenance. Moreover, since the fast evolution of digital technology has enabled more reliable functions to be designed for NPP safety, the transition from analog to digital has been accelerated. Owing to the distinguishable characteristics of digital I and C systems, a reliability analysis of digital systems has become an important element of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Digital I and C systems have unique characteristics such as fault-tolerant techniques and software. However, these features have not been properly considered yet in most NPP PSA models. The effect of digital I and C systems should be evaluated by comparing them to that of analog I and C systems. Before installing a digital I and C system, even though it is expected that the plant safety can be improved through the advantageous features of digital I and C systems, it should be validated whether the total NPP safety is better than analog systems or is the same at least. In this work, the fault-tree (FT) technique, which is most widely used in a PSA, was used to compare the effects of analog and digital I and C systems. From a case study, the results of plant safety were compared. In this work, the effect of a digital RPS was evaluated by comparing it to that of an analog RPS based on the FT models. In the evaluation results, it was observed that digital RPS has a positive effect on reducing the system unavailability. The analysis results can be used for the development of a guide for evaluating digital I and C systems and reliability requirements

  17. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Fault Trees as Tools in Improving the Delineation of Wellhead Protection Areas: An Initial Discussion (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.


    Delineation of a wellhead protection area (WHPA) is a critical component of managing / protecting the aquifer(s) supplying potable water to a public water-supply well. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for assessing WHPAs in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health risk within the receiving population are more limited. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) addresses this latter challenge by providing a structure whereby four key WHPA issues may be addressed: (i) uncertainty in land-use practices and chemical release, (ii) uncertainty in groundwater flow, (iii) variability in natural attenuation properties (and/or remediation) of the contaminants, and (iv) estimated health risk from contaminant arrival at a well. The potential utility of PRA-FT in this application is considered through a simplified case study involving management decisions related both to regional land use planning and local land-use zoning regulation. An application-specific fault tree is constructed to visualize and identify the events required for health risk failure at the well and a Monte Carlo approach is used to create multiple realizations of groundwater flow and chemical transport to a well in a model of a simple, unconfined aquifer. Model parameters allowed to vary during this simplified case study include hydraulic conductivity, probability of a chemical spill (related to land use variation in space), and natural attenuation through variation in rate of decay of the contaminant. Numerical results are interpreted in association with multiple land-use management scenarios as well as multiple cancer risk assumptions regarding the contaminant arriving at the well. This case study shows significant variability of health risk at the well, however general trends were

  18. Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems (United States)

    Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel


    Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

  19. Morphotectonic and structural analysis of the municipalities of San Cristóbal and Candelaria, Western Cuba: contribution to seismic hazard studies of Pinar Fault

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    Alexis Ordaz Hernández


    Full Text Available The research focuses on revealing the main morphotectonic expressions of relief, as a contribution to the study of moderate seismicity of territory. Morphostructural analysis combined with results of analysis of structures, to mesoscopic scale, provide elements of the preferred direction of the tectonic forces that determined the contemporary re lief. A total of 44 outcrops were described and 686 structural elements measured (extension fracture, shear and hybrid fracture, axes and axial planes of folds. Morphotectonics interpretations and geomorphological indexes allowed to reveal morphostructural block differentiation, transverse to Pinar transcurrent fault, with potential seismogenic character and also conclude on the main and subordinate directions of tectonic efforts which generated the substrate’s mesostructures and the relief ’s morphostructures, significant parameters in characterizing regional seismotectonics. Special attention deserves the “back pressure” generated on the Pinar fault trace, located to north of La Conchita, which present a differentiation in stepped microblocks and displaced horizontally, indicating a remarkable deformation with characteristics seismic hazard for San Cristóbal and Candelaria towns.