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Sample records for seismic event discrimination

  1. Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

  2. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for semi-automatic discrimination between seismic events: a study in Tehran region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasheghani Farahani, Jamileh; Zare, Mehdi; Lucas, Caro

    2012-04-01

    Thisarticle presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for classification of low magnitude seismic events reported in Iran by the network of Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO). ANFIS classifiers were used to detect seismic events using six inputs that defined the seismic events. Neuro-fuzzy coding was applied using the six extracted features as ANFIS inputs. Two types of events were defined: weak earthquakes and mining blasts. The data comprised 748 events (6289 signals) ranging from magnitude 1.1 to 4.6 recorded at 13 seismic stations between 2004 and 2009. We surveyed that there are almost 223 earthquakes with M ≤ 2.2 included in this database. Data sets from the south, east, and southeast of the city of Tehran were used to evaluate the best short period seismic discriminants, and features as inputs such as origin time of event, distance (source to station), latitude of epicenter, longitude of epicenter, magnitude, and spectral analysis (fc of the Pg wave) were used, increasing the rate of correct classification and decreasing the confusion rate between weak earthquakes and quarry blasts. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated for training and classification accuracy. The results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has good potential for determining seismic events.

  3. Explosion Monitoring with Machine Learning: A LSTM Approach to Seismic Event Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magana-Zook, S. A.; Ruppert, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    The streams of seismic data that analysts look at to discriminate natural from man- made events will soon grow from gigabytes of data per day to exponentially larger rates. This is an interesting problem as the requirement for real-time answers to questions of non-proliferation will remain the same, and the analyst pool cannot grow as fast as the data volume and velocity will. Machine learning is a tool that can solve the problem of seismic explosion monitoring at scale. Using machine learning, and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models in particular, analysts can become more efficient by focusing their attention on signals of interest. From a global dataset of earthquake and explosion events, a model was trained to recognize the different classes of events, given their spectrograms. Optimal recurrent node count and training iterations were found, and cross validation was performed to evaluate model performance. A 10-fold mean accuracy of 96.92% was achieved on a balanced dataset of 30,002 instances. Given that the model is 446.52 MB it can be used to simultaneously characterize all incoming signals by researchers looking at events in isolation on desktop machines, as well as at scale on all of the nodes of a real-time streaming platform. LLNL-ABS-735911

  4. Depth Discrimination Using Rg-to-Sg Spectral Amplitude Ratios for Seismic Events in Utah Recorded at Local Distances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tibi, Rigobert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics; Pankow, Kristine L. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics; Young, Christopher J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2018-03-20

    Short-period fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) are commonly observed on seismograms of anthropogenic seismic events and shallow, naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes (TEs) recorded at local distances. In the Utah region, strong Rg waves traveling with an average group velocity of about 1.8 km/s are observed at ~1 Hz on waveforms from shallow events ( depth<10 km ) recorded at distances up to about 150 km. At these distances, Sg waves, which are direct shear waves traveling in the upper crust, are generally the dominant signals for TEs. Here in this study, we leverage the well-known notion that Rg amplitude decreases dramatically with increasing event depth to propose a new depth discriminant based on Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios. The approach is successfully used to discriminate shallow events (both earthquakes and anthropogenic events) from deeper TEs in the Utah region recorded at local distances ( <150 km ) by the University of Utah Seismographic Stations (UUSS) regional seismic network. Using Mood’s median test, we obtained probabilities of nearly zero that the median Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios are the same between shallow events on the one hand (including both shallow TEs and anthropogenic events), and deeper earthquakes on the other, suggesting that there is a statistically significant difference in the estimated Rg-to-Sg ratios between the two populations. We also observed consistent disparities between the different types of shallow events (e.g., mining blasts vs. mining-induced earthquakes), implying that it may be possible to separate the subpopulations that make up this group. Lastly, this suggests that using local distance Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios one can not only discriminate shallow events from deeper events but may also be able to discriminate among different populations of shallow events.

  5. LLNL's Regional Seismic Discrimination Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanley, W; Mayeda, K; Myers, S; Pasyanos, M; Rodgers, A; Sicherman, A; Walter, W

    1999-01-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's research and development effort to improve the monitoring capability of the planned Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty international monitoring system, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLNL) is testing and calibrating regional seismic discrimination algorithms in the Middle East, North Africa and Western Former Soviet Union. The calibration process consists of a number of steps: (1) populating the database with independently identified regional events; (2) developing regional boundaries and pre-identifying severe regional phase blockage zones; (3) measuring and calibrating coda based magnitude scales; (4a) measuring regional amplitudes and making magnitude and distance amplitude corrections (MDAC); (4b) applying the DOE modified kriging methodology to MDAC results using the regionalized background model; (5) determining the thresholds of detectability of regional phases as a function of phase type and frequency; (6) evaluating regional phase discriminant performance both singly and in combination; (7) combining steps 1-6 to create a calibrated discrimination surface for each stations; (8) assessing progress and iterating. We have now developed this calibration procedure to the point where it is fairly straightforward to apply earthquake-explosion discrimination in regions with ample empirical data. Several of the steps outlined above are discussed in greater detail in other DOE papers in this volume or in recent publications. Here we emphasize the results of the above process: station correction surfaces and their improvement to discrimination results compared with simpler calibration methods. Some of the outstanding discrimination research issues involve cases in which there is little or no empirical data. For example in many cases there is no regional nuclear explosion data at IMS stations or nearby surrogates. We have taken two approaches to this problem, first finding and using mining explosion data when available, and

  6. Event Discrimination Using Seismoacoustic Catalog Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, S.; Arrowsmith, S.; Bowman, D.; Downey, N.; Koch, C.

    2017-12-01

    Presented here are three seismoacoustic catalogs from various years and locations throughout Utah and New Mexico. To create these catalogs, we combine seismic and acoustic events detected and located using different algorithms. Seismoacoustic events are formed based on similarity of origin time and location. Following seismoacoustic fusion, the data is compared against ground truth events. Each catalog contains events originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources. By creating these seismoacoustic catalogs, we show that the fusion of seismic and acoustic data leads to a better understanding of the nature of individual events. The probability of an event being a surface blast given its presence in each seismoacoustic catalog is quantified. We use these probabilities to discriminate between events from natural and anthropogenic sources. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

  7. An unsupervised learning algorithm: application to the discrimination of seismic events and quarry blasts in the vicinity of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. S. Kuyuk

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the application of an unsupervised learning (neural network approach comprising a Self Organizing Map (SOM, to distinguish micro-earthquakes from quarry blasts in the vicinity of Istanbul, Turkey, are presented and discussed. The SOM is constructed as a neural classifier and complementary reliability estimator to distinguish seismic events, and was employed for varying map sizes. Input parameters consisting of frequency and time domain data (complexity, spectral ratio, S/P wave amplitude peak ratio and origin time of events extracted from the vertical components of digital seismograms were estimated as discriminants for 179 (1.8 < Md < 3.0 local events. The results show that complexity and amplitude peak ratio parameters of the observed velocity seismogram may suffice for a reliable discrimination, while origin time and spectral ratio were found to be fuzzy and misleading classifiers for this problem. The SOM discussed here achieved a discrimination reliability that could be employed routinely in observatory practice; however, about 6% of all events were classified as ambiguous cases. This approach was developed independently for this particular classification, but it could be applied to different earthquake regions.

  8. REGIONAL SEISMIC AMPLITUDE MODELING AND TOMOGRAPHY FOR EARTHQUAKE-EXPLOSION DISCRIMINATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, W R; Pasyanos, M E; Matzel, E; Gok, R; Sweeney, J; Ford, S R; Rodgers, A J

    2008-07-08

    We continue exploring methodologies to improve earthquake-explosion discrimination using regional amplitude ratios such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. Empirically we demonstrate that such ratios separate explosions from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are also examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling (e. g. Ford et al 2008). For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East. Monitoring the world for potential nuclear explosions requires characterizing seismic

  9. Fundamental aspects of seismic event detection, magnitude estimation and their interrelation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringdal, F.

    1977-01-01

    The main common subject of the papers forming this thesis is statistical model development within the seismological disciplines of seismic event detection and event magnitude estimation. As more high quality seismic data become available as a result of recent seismic network developments, the opportunity will exist for large scale application and further refinement of these models. It is hoped that the work presented here will facilitate improved understanding of the basic issues, both within earthquake-explosion discrimination, in the framework of which most of this work originated, and in seismology in general. (Auth.)

  10. Nonlinear Methodologies for Identifying Seismic Event and Nuclear Explosion Using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bayes Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longjun Dong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The discrimination of seismic event and nuclear explosion is a complex and nonlinear system. The nonlinear methodologies including Random Forests (RF, Support Vector Machines (SVM, and Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC were applied to discriminant seismic events. Twenty earthquakes and twenty-seven explosions with nine ratios of the energies contained within predetermined “velocity windows” and calculated distance are used in discriminators. Based on the one out cross-validation, ROC curve, calculated accuracy of training and test samples, and discriminating performances of RF, SVM, and NBC were discussed and compared. The result of RF method clearly shows the best predictive power with a maximum area of 0.975 under the ROC among RF, SVM, and NBC. The discriminant accuracies of RF, SVM, and NBC for test samples are 92.86%, 85.71%, and 92.86%, respectively. It has been demonstrated that the presented RF model can not only identify seismic event automatically with high accuracy, but also can sort the discriminant indicators according to calculated values of weights.

  11. Automatic Seismic-Event Classification with Convolutional Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueno Rodriguez, A.; Titos Luzón, M.; Garcia Martinez, L.; Benitez, C.; Ibáñez, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Active volcanoes exhibit a wide range of seismic signals, providing vast amounts of unlabelled volcano-seismic data that can be analyzed through the lens of artificial intelligence. However, obtaining high-quality labelled data is time-consuming and expensive. Deep neural networks can process data in their raw form, compute high-level features and provide a better representation of the input data distribution. These systems can be deployed to classify seismic data at scale, enhance current early-warning systems and build extensive seismic catalogs. In this research, we aim to classify spectrograms from seven different seismic events registered at "Volcán de Fuego" (Colima, Mexico), during four eruptive periods. Our approach is based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a sub-type of deep neural networks that can exploit grid structure from the data. Volcano-seismic signals can be mapped into a grid-like structure using the spectrogram: a representation of the temporal evolution in terms of time and frequency. Spectrograms were computed from the data using Hamming windows with 4 seconds length, 2.5 seconds overlapping and 128 points FFT resolution. Results are compared to deep neural networks, random forest and SVMs. Experiments show that CNNs can exploit temporal and frequency information, attaining a classification accuracy of 93%, similar to deep networks 91% but outperforming SVM and random forest. These results empirically show that CNNs are powerful models to classify a wide range of volcano-seismic signals, and achieve good generalization. Furthermore, volcano-seismic spectrograms contains useful discriminative information for the CNN, as higher layers of the network combine high-level features computed for each frequency band, helping to detect simultaneous events in time. Being at the intersection of deep learning and geophysics, this research enables future studies of how CNNs can be used in volcano monitoring to accurately determine the detection and

  12. Discrimination Analysis of Earthquakes and Man-Made Events Using ARMA Coefficients Determination by Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AllamehZadeh, Mostafa

    2011-01-01

    A Quadratic Neural Networks (QNNs) model has been developed for identifying seismic source classification problem at regional distances using ARMA coefficients determination by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). We have devised a supervised neural system to discriminate between earthquakes and chemical explosions with filter coefficients obtained by windowed P-wave phase spectra (15 s). First, we preprocess the recording's signals to cancel out instrumental and attenuation site effects and obtain a compact representation of seismic records. Second, we use a QNNs system to obtain ARMA coefficients for feature extraction in the discrimination problem. The derived coefficients are then applied to the neural system to train and classification. In this study, we explore the possibility of using single station three-component (3C) covariance matrix traces from a priori-known explosion sites (learning) for automatically recognizing subsequent explosions from the same site. The results have shown that this feature extraction gives the best classifier for seismic signals and performs significantly better than other classification methods. The events have been tested, which include 36 chemical explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and 61 earthquakes (mb = 5.0–6.5) recorded by the Iranian National Seismic Network (INSN). The 100% correct decisions were obtained between site explosions and some of non-site events. The above approach to event discrimination is very flexible as we can combine several 3C stations.

  13. Discrimination Analysis of Earthquakes and Man-Made Events Using ARMA Coefficients Determination by Artificial Neural Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AllamehZadeh, Mostafa, E-mail: dibaparima@yahoo.com [International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-12-15

    A Quadratic Neural Networks (QNNs) model has been developed for identifying seismic source classification problem at regional distances using ARMA coefficients determination by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). We have devised a supervised neural system to discriminate between earthquakes and chemical explosions with filter coefficients obtained by windowed P-wave phase spectra (15 s). First, we preprocess the recording's signals to cancel out instrumental and attenuation site effects and obtain a compact representation of seismic records. Second, we use a QNNs system to obtain ARMA coefficients for feature extraction in the discrimination problem. The derived coefficients are then applied to the neural system to train and classification. In this study, we explore the possibility of using single station three-component (3C) covariance matrix traces from a priori-known explosion sites (learning) for automatically recognizing subsequent explosions from the same site. The results have shown that this feature extraction gives the best classifier for seismic signals and performs significantly better than other classification methods. The events have been tested, which include 36 chemical explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and 61 earthquakes (mb = 5.0-6.5) recorded by the Iranian National Seismic Network (INSN). The 100% correct decisions were obtained between site explosions and some of non-site events. The above approach to event discrimination is very flexible as we can combine several 3C stations.

  14. Discrimination of DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 Earthquake as Nuclear Test Using Analysis of Magnitude, Rupture Duration and Ratio of Seismic Energy and Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomo Sianipar, Dimas; Subakti, Hendri; Pribadi, Sugeng

    2015-04-01

    On February 12th, 2013 morning at 02:57 UTC, there had been an earthquake with its epicenter in the region of North Korea precisely around Sungjibaegam Mountains. Monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and some other seismic network detected this shallow seismic event. Analyzing seismograms recorded after this event can discriminate between a natural earthquake or an explosion. Zhao et. al. (2014) have been successfully discriminate this seismic event of North Korea nuclear test 2013 from ordinary earthquakes based on network P/S spectral ratios using broadband regional seismic data recorded in China, South Korea and Japan. The P/S-type spectral ratios were powerful discriminants to separate explosions from earthquake (Zhao et. al., 2014). Pribadi et. al. (2014) have characterized 27 earthquake-generated tsunamis (tsunamigenic earthquake or tsunami earthquake) from 1991 to 2012 in Indonesia using W-phase inversion analysis, the ratio between the seismic energy (E) and the seismic moment (Mo), the moment magnitude (Mw), the rupture duration (To) and the distance of the hypocenter to the trench. Some of this method was also used by us to characterize the nuclear test earthquake. We discriminate this DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 earthquake from a natural earthquake using analysis magnitude mb, ms and mw, ratio of seismic energy and moment and rupture duration. We used the waveform data of the seismicity on the scope region in radius 5 degrees from the DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 epicenter 41.29, 129.07 (Zhang and Wen, 2013) from 2006 to 2014 with magnitude M ≥ 4.0. We conclude that this earthquake was a shallow seismic event with explosion characteristics and can be discriminate from a natural or tectonic earthquake. Keywords: North Korean nuclear test, magnitude mb, ms, mw, ratio between seismic energy and moment, ruptures duration

  15. General discrimination technique to determine between earthquake and nuclear test with seismic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashillah Baharuddin; Alawiah Musa; Roslan Mohd Ali

    2007-01-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was developed to ban of any nuclear weapon test explosion moreover will restrict the development and qualitative improvement of nuclear weapons and end the development of advanced new types of these weapons. The Treaty provides for a comprehensive global verification regime, which includes an International Monitoring System (IMS). The IMS comprises a network of 321 monitoring stations and 16 radionuclide laboratories that monitor the Earth for evidence of nuclear explosions, which cover underground, underwater and atmosphere environments. Presently, Malaysia receives seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic and radionuclide data from the International Data Centre (IDC) of the CTBT. In order to maximise the use of the data for the purposes of the CTBT, the Malaysian Nuclear Agency is developing capability to analyse the data in order to detect nuclear weapon test, with an initial focus on the seismic data. Through the CTBT IMS, seismic data is constantly being obtained to monitor and detect nuclear explosions. However, in the process, other natural and man-made activities that generate seismic waves, especially earthquakes and large man-made explosions, are also detectable through the IMS, and need to be differentiated and discriminated before any nuclear explosions can be identified. The detection capability by using seismological methods was proven through simulated explosion tests at selected nuclear weapon test sites. This is supported by data previously collected from a total of 2089 nuclear weapon tests that have been carried out globally, out of which 1567 were underground, 514 in the atmosphere, including outer space, and 8 underwater. The discrimination of seismic data to detect nuclear explosions from natural earthquake and explosions can be undertaken through the identification of the epicentre location, hypocentre depth, magnitude and short-period discrimination of the seismic events. (Author)

  16. Using discrete wavelet transform features to discriminate between noise and phases in seismic waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Hansen, C. W.

    2017-12-01

    Currently, simple polarization metrics such as the horizontal-to-vertical ratio are used to discriminate between noise and various phases in three-component seismic waveform data collected at regional distances. Accurately establishing the identity and arrival of these waves in adverse signal-to-noise environments is helpful in detecting and locating the seismic events. In this work, we explore the use of multiresolution decompositions to discriminate between noise and event arrivals. A segment of the waveform lying inside a time-window that spans the coda of an arrival is subjected to a discrete wavelet decomposition. Multi-resolution classification features as well as statistical tests are derived from these wavelet decomposition quantities to quantify their discriminating power. Furthermore, we move to streaming data and address the problem of false positives by introducing ensembles of classifiers. We describe in detail results of these methods tuned from data obtained from Coronel Fontana, Argentina (CFAA), as well as Stephens Creek, Australia (STKA). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

  17. Seismic Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-30

    were presumed nuclear explosions announced by ERDA. Of the last, 11 were at the Semipalatinsk test site , 2 at the Western Kazakh test site , 2 in Novaya...which will fulfill U.S. ob- ligations that may be incurred under a possible future Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. This report includes 9 contributions...which could assume U.S. seismic-data-management responsibilities in the event that international agreement is reached on a Comprehensive Test Ban

  18. Discrimination and Assessment of Induced Seismicity in Active Tectonic Zones: A Case Study from Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Lindsey, N.; Foxall, W.; Robertson, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes induced by human activity have become a matter of heightened public concern during recent years. Of particular concern is seismicity associated with wastewater injection, which has included events having magnitudes greater than 5. The causes of the induced events are primarily changes in pore-pressure, fluid volume and perhaps temperature due to injection. Recent research in the US has focused on mid-continental regions having low rates of naturally-occurring seismicity, where induced events can be identified by relatively straightforward spatial and temporal correlation of seismicity with high-volume injection activities. Recent examples include events correlated with injection of wastewater in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and Ohio, and long-term brine injection in the Paradox Valley in Colorado. Even in some of the cases where there appears at first sight to be a clear spatial correlation between seismicity and injection, it has been difficult to establish causality definitively. Here, we discuss methods to identify induced seismicity in active tectonic regions. We concentrate our study on Southern California, where large numbers of wastewater injection wells are located in oil-producing basins that experience moderate to high rates of naturally-occurring seismicity. Using the catalog of high-precision CISN relocations produced by Hauksson et al. (BSSA, 2012), we aim to discriminate induced from natural events based on spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity occurrence characteristics and their relationships to injection activities, known active faults and other faults favorably oriented for slip under the tectonic stress field. Since the vast majority of induced earthquakes are very small, it is crucial to include all events above the detection threshold of the CISN in each area studied. In addition to exploring the correlation of seismicity to injection activities in time and space, we analyze variations in frequency-magnitude distributions, which can

  19. The ISC Seismic Event Bibliography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Storchak, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The International Seismological Centre (ISC) is a not-for-profit organization operating in the UK for the last 50 years and producing the ISC Bulletin - the definitive worldwide summary of seismic events, both natural and anthropogenic - starting from the beginning of 20th century. Often researchers need to gather information related to specific seismic events for various reasons. To facilitate such task, in 2012 we set up a new database linking earthquakes and other seismic events in the ISC Bulletin to bibliographic records of scientific articles (mostly peer-reviewed journals) that describe those events. Such association allows users of the ISC Event Bibliography (www.isc.ac.uk/event_bibliography/index.php) to run searches for publications via a map-based web interface and, optionally, selecting scientific publications related to either specific events or events in the area of interest. Some of the greatest earthquakes were described in several hundreds of articles published over a period of few years. The journals included in our database are not limited to seismology but bring together a variety of fields in geosciences (e.g., engineering seismology, geodesy and remote sensing, tectonophysics, monitoring research, tsunami, geology, geochemistry, hydrogeology, atmospheric sciences, etc.) making this service useful in multidisciplinary studies. Usually papers dealing with large data set are not included (e.g., papers describing a seismic catalogue). Currently the ISC Event Bibliography includes over 17,000 individual publications from about 500 titles related to over 14,000 events that occurred in last 100+ years. The bibliographic records in the Event Bibliography start in the 1950s, and it is updated as new publications become available.

  20. Towards a Systematic Search for Triggered Seismic Events in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, V.; Chao, K.; Van der Lee, S.

    2017-12-01

    Dynamic triggering of small earthquakes and tectonic tremor by small stress variations associated with passing surface waves from large-magnitude teleseismic earthquakes have been observed in seismically active regions in the western US. Local stress variations as small as 5 10 kPa can suffice to advance slip on local faults. Observations of such triggered events share certain distinct characteristics. With an eye towards an eventual application of machine learning, we began a systematic search for dynamically triggered seismic events in the USA that have these characteristics. Such a systematic survey has the potential to help us to better understand the fundamental process of dynamic triggering and hazards implied by it. Using visual inspection on top of timing and frequency based selection criteria for these seismic phenomena, our search yielded numerous false positives, indicating the challenge posed by moving from ad-hoc observations of dynamic triggering to a systematic search that also includes a catalog of non-triggering, even when sufficient stress variations are supplied. Our search includes a dozen large earthquakes that occurred during the tenure of USArray. One of these earthquakes (11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra), for example, was observed by USArray-TA stations in the Midwest and other station networks (such as PB and UW), and yielded candidate-triggered events at 413 stations. We kept 79 of these observations after closer visual inspection of the observed events suggested distinct P and S arrivals from a local earthquake, or a tremor modulation with the same period as the surface wave, among other criteria. We confirmed triggered seismic events in 63 stations along the western plate boundary where triggered events have previously been observed. We also newly found triggered tremor sources in eastern Oregon and Yellowstone, and candidate-triggered earthquake sources in New Mexico and Minnesota. Learning whether 14 of remaining candidates are confirmed

  1. Using Dynamic Fourier Analysis to Discriminate Between Seismic Signals from Natural Earthquakes and Mining Explosions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria C. Mariani

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of intraplate earthquakes occurred in Arizona at the same location where miningexplosions were carried out in previous years. The explosions and some of the earthquakes generatedvery similar seismic signals. In this study Dynamic Fourier Analysis is used for discriminating signalsoriginating from natural earthquakes and mining explosions. Frequency analysis of seismogramsrecorded at regional distances shows that compared with the mining explosions the earthquake signalshave larger amplitudes in the frequency interval ~ 6 to 8 Hz and significantly smaller amplitudes inthe frequency interval ~ 2 to 4 Hz. This type of analysis permits identifying characteristics in theseismograms frequency yielding to detect potentially risky seismic events.

  2. Discriminating Induced-Microearthquakes Using New Seismic Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, S. M.; Horton, S.

    2016-12-01

    We studied characteristics of induced-microearthquakes on the basis of the waveforms recorded on a limited number of surface receivers using machine-learning techniques. Forty features in the time, frequency, and time-frequency domains were measured on each waveform, and several techniques such as correlation-based feature selection, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Logistic Regression (LR) and X-mean were used as research tools to explore the relationship between these seismic features and source parameters. The results show that spectral features have the highest correlation to source depth. Two new measurements developed as seismic features for this study, spectral centroids and 2D cross-correlations in the time-frequency domain, performed better than the common seismic measurements. These features can be used by machine learning techniques for efficient automatic classification of low energy signals recorded at one or more seismic stations. We applied the technique to 440 microearthquakes-1.7Reference: Mousavi, S.M., S.P. Horton, C. A. Langston, B. Samei, (2016) Seismic features and automatic discrimination of deep and shallow induced-microearthquakes using neural network and logistic regression, Geophys. J. Int. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggw258.

  3. Link Between the Seismic Events and the Different Seismic Precursor Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela GHEORGHITA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an analysis of the earthquake prediction methods, highlighting mainly the VLF and LF electromagnetic waves seismic precursors’ monitoring method and the correlation among these in order to obtain a more precise result. It is well known the fact that there are lots of links between the seismic events occurrence and different phenomena that predict their occurrence, such as theelectromagnetic field, Earth movement, gaseous content of radon and hydrogen within the soil, or within the underground waters. This paper aims to demonstrate the close link between the seismic events and the electromagnetic wave propagation anomalies, which are recorded before the advent of an earthquake.

  4. Adaptive prediction applied to seismic event detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, G.A.; Rodgers, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    Adaptive prediction was applied to the problem of detecting small seismic events in microseismic background noise. The Widrow-Hoff LMS adaptive filter used in a prediction configuration is compared with two standard seismic filters as an onset indicator. Examples demonstrate the technique's usefulness with both synthetic and actual seismic data

  5. Adaptive prediction applied to seismic event detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, G.A.; Rodgers, P.W.

    1981-09-01

    Adaptive prediction was applied to the problem of detecting small seismic events in microseismic background noise. The Widrow-Hoff LMS adaptive filter used in a prediction configuration is compared with two standard seismic filters as an onset indicator. Examples demonstrate the technique's usefulness with both synthetic and actual seismic data.

  6. The Non-Proliferation Experiment recorded at the Pinedale Seismic Research Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, D.B. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The Non-Proliferation Experiment was recorded by five different seismic stations operated by Sandia National Laboratories at the Pinedale Seismic Research Facility, approximately 7.6{degrees} from the Nevada Test Site. Two stations are different versions of the Deployable Seismic Verification System developed by the Department of Energy to provide seismic data to verify compliance with a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Vault and borehole versions of the Designated Seismic Stations also recorded the event. The final station is test instrumentation located at depths of 10, 40 and 1200 feet. Although the event is seen clearly at all the stations, there are variations in the raw data due to the different bandwidths and depths of deployment. One Deployable Seismic Verification System has been operating at Pinedale for over three years and in that time recorded 14 nuclear explosions and 4 earthquakes from the Nevada Test Site, along with numerous other western U.S. earthquakes. Several discriminants based on the work by Taylor et al. (1989) have been applied to this data. First the discriminants were tested by comparing the explosions only to the 4 earthquakes located on the Test Site. Only one discriminant, log(L{sub g}/P{sub g}), did not show clear separation between the earthquakes and nuclear explosions. When other western U.S. events are included, only the M{sub b} vs. M{sub s} discriminant separated the event. In all cases where discrimination was possible, the Non-Proliferation Experiment was indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion.

  7. Moment magnitude determination of local seismic events recorded at selected Polish seismic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiejacz, Paweł; Wiszniowski, Jan

    2006-03-01

    The paper presents the method of local magnitude determination used at Polish seismic stations to report events originating in one of the four regions of induced seismicity in Poland or its immediate vicinity. The method is based on recalculation of the seismic moment into magnitude, whereas the seismic moment is obtained from spectral analysis. The method has been introduced at Polish seismic stations in the late 1990s but as of yet had not been described in full because magnitude discrepancies have been found between the results of the individual stations. The authors have performed statistics of these differences, provide their explanation and calculate station corrections for each station and each event source region. The limitations of the method are also discussed. The method is found to be a good and reliable method of local magnitude determination provided the limitations are observed and station correction applied.

  8. Mining-induced seismicity at the Lucky Friday Mine: Seismic events of magnitude >2.5, 1989--1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whyatt, J.K.; Williams, T.J. [USDOE, Spokane, WA (United States). Spokane Research Center; Blake, W. [Blake (W.), Hayden Lake, ID (United States); Sprenke, K. [Idaho Univ., Moscow, ID (United States); Wideman, C. [Montana Tech, Butte, MT (United States)

    1996-09-01

    An understanding of the types of seismic events that occur in a deep mine provides a foundation for assessing the seismic characteristics of these events and the degree to which initiation of these events can be anticipated or controlled. This study is a first step toward developing such an understanding of seismic events generated by mining in the Coeur d`Alene Mining District of northern Idaho. It is based on information developed in the course of a long-standing rock burst research effort undertaken by the U. S. Bureau of Mines in cooperation with Coeur d`Alene Mining District mines and regional universities. This information was collected for 39 seismic events with local magnitudes greater than 2.5 that occurred between 1989 and 1994. One of these events occurred, on average, every 8 weeks during the study period. Five major types of characteristic events were developed from the data; these five types describe all but two of the 39 events that were studied. The most common types of events occurred, on average, once every 30 weeks. The characteristic mechanisms, first-motion patterns, damage patterns, and relationships to mining and major geologic structures were defined for each type of event. These five types of events need to be studied further to assess their ability to camouflage clandestine nuclear tests as well as the degree to which they can be anticipated and controlled.

  9. Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-10-01

    This Technical Document on Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events is mainly associated with the Safety Practice on Treatment of External Hazards in PSA and discusses in detail one specific external hazard, i.e. earthquakes

  10. Source discrimination between Mining blasts and Earthquakes in Tianshan orogenic belt, NW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, L.; Zhang, M.; Wen, L.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, a large number of quarry blasts have been detonated in Tianshan Mountains of China. It is necessary to discriminate those non-earthquake records from the earthquake catalogs in order to determine the real seismicity of the region. In this study, we have investigated spectral ratios and amplitude ratios as discriminants for regional seismic-event identification using explosions and earthquakes recorded at Xinjiang Seismic Network (XJSN) of China. We used a data set that includes 1071 earthquakes and 2881 non-earthquakes as training data recorded by the XJSN between years of 2009 and 2016, with both types of events in a comparable local magnitude range (1.5 to 2.9). The non-earthquake and earthquake groups were well separated by amplitude ratios of Pg/Sg, with the separation increasing with frequency when averaged over three stations. The 8- to 15-Hz Pg/Sg ratio was proved to be the most precise and accurate discriminant, which works for more than 90% of the events. In contrast, the P spectral ratio performed considerably worse with a significant overlap (about 60% overlap) between the earthquake and explosion populations. The comparison results show amplitude ratios between compressional and shear waves discriminate better than low-frequency to high-frequency spectral ratios for individual phases. In discriminating between explosions and earthquakes, none of two discriminants were able to completely separate the two populations of events. However, a joint discrimination scheme employing simple majority voting reduces misclassifications to 10%. In the region of the study, 44% of the examined seismic events were determined to be non-earthquakes and 55% to be earthquakes. The earthquakes occurring on land are related to small faults, while the blasts are concentrated in large quarries.

  11. Innovations in seismic tomography, their applications and induced seismic events in carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng

    This dissertation presents two innovations in seismic tomography and a new discovery of induced seismic events associated with CO2 injection at an Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) site. The following are brief introductions of these three works. The first innovated work is adaptive ambient seismic noise tomography (AANT). Traditional ambient noise tomography methods using regular grid nodes are often ill posed because the inversion grids do not always represent the distribution of ray paths. Large grid spacing is usually used to reduce the number of inversion parameters, which may not be able to solve for small-scale velocity structure. We present a new adaptive tomography method with irregular grids that provides a few advantages over the traditional methods. First, irregular grids with different sizes and shapes can fit the ray distribution better and the traditionally ill-posed problem can become more stable owing to the different parameterizations. Second, the data in the area with dense ray sampling will be sufficiently utilized so that the model resolution can be greatly improved. Both synthetic and real data are used to test the newly developed tomography algorithm. In synthetic data tests, we compare the resolution and stability of the traditional and adaptive methods. The results show that adaptive tomography is more stable and performs better in improving the resolution in the area with dense ray sampling. For real data, we extract the ambient noise signals of the seismic data near the Garlock Fault region, obtained from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center. The resulting group velocity of Rayleigh waves is well correlated with the geological structures. High velocity anomalies are shown in the cold southern Sierra Nevada, the Tehachapi Mountains and the Western San Gabriel Mountains. The second innovated work is local earthquake tomography with full topography (LETFT). In this work, we develop a new three-dimensional local earthquake tomography

  12. Correlation Between Electromagnetic Signals and Seismic Events on Central Colombia Region to Establish Seismic Precursors Existence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caneva, A.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.; Solano Fino, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    It was already shown by several authors around the world some kinds of correlation between electric and magnetic signals and seismic events looking for precursors to the last ones emitted from the seismic source. This investigation tends to establish a correlation between electro-magnetic (EM) signals on the ground surface and seismic events on the Colombian lithospheric system. The events correlation was made with data from the Seismological Network of the Sabana de Bogotá (RSSB for its acronym in Spanish), a temporal seismological network on Chichimene (Acacías, Meta, Colombia) and the National Seismological Network of Colombia (RSNC, for its acronym in Spanish). The project involved the design, construction and preliminary tests for the necessary instruments added to the RSSB as multi-parameter stations with seismic broadband, electric polarizing and non-polarizing dipoles and Earth's magnetic field sensors. Correlations were made considering time, frequency and `natural time' domains with filtering and preprocessing algorithms. Among the main results are the almost complete lack of electric disturbances known as Seismic Electric Signals (SES) and very few of the magnetic kind. However, another kind of long period magnetic disturbances for some stations and events where found. More instruments have to be deployed in order to get a better understanding of these disturbances and develop a robust model.

  13. National Earthquake Information Center Seismic Event Detections on Multiple Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, J.; Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Johnson, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors seismicity on local, regional, and global scales using automatic picks from more than 2,000 near-real time seismic stations. This presents unique challenges in automated event detection due to the high variability in data quality, network geometries and density, and distance-dependent variability in observed seismic signals. To lower the overall detection threshold while minimizing false detection rates, NEIC has begun to test the incorporation of new detection and picking algorithms, including multiband (Lomax et al., 2012) and kurtosis (Baillard et al., 2014) pickers, and a new bayesian associator (Glass 3.0). The Glass 3.0 associator allows for simultaneous processing of variably scaled detection grids, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation threshold, minimum associated picks, nucleation phases) to meet specific monitoring goals. We test the efficacy of these new tools on event detection in networks of various scales and geometries, compare our results with previous catalogs, and discuss lessons learned. For example, we find that on local and regional scales, rapid nucleation of small events may require event nucleation with both P and higher-amplitude secondary phases (e.g., S or Lg). We provide examples of the implementation of a scale-independent associator for an induced seismicity sequence (local-scale), a large aftershock sequence (regional-scale), and for monitoring global seismicity. Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., & Mangeney, A. (2014). An automatic kurtosis-based P-and S-phase picker designed for local seismic networks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 394-409. Lomax, A., Satriano, C., & Vassallo, M. (2012). Automatic picker developments and optimization: FilterPicker - a robust, broadband picker for real-time seismic monitoring and earthquake early-warning, Seism. Res. Lett. , 83, 531-540, doi: 10

  14. Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

  15. WILBER and PyWEED: Event-based Seismic Data Request Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falco, N.; Clark, A.; Trabant, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    WILBER and PyWEED are two user-friendly tools for requesting event-oriented seismic data. Both tools provide interactive maps and other controls for browsing and filtering event and station catalogs, and downloading data for selected event/station combinations, where the data window for each event/station pair may be defined relative to the arrival time of seismic waves from the event to that particular station. Both tools allow data to be previewed visually, and can download data in standard miniSEED, SAC, and other formats, complete with relevant metadata for performing instrument correction. WILBER is a web application requiring only a modern web browser. Once the user has selected an event, WILBER identifies all data available for that time period, and allows the user to select stations based on criteria such as the station's distance and orientation relative to the event. When the user has finalized their request, the data is collected and packaged on the IRIS server, and when it is ready the user is sent a link to download. PyWEED is a downloadable, cross-platform (Macintosh / Windows / Linux) application written in Python. PyWEED allows a user to select multiple events and stations, and will download data for each event/station combination selected. PyWEED is built around the ObsPy seismic toolkit, and allows direct interaction and control of the application through a Python interactive console.

  16. Automatic Classification of volcano-seismic events based on Deep Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titos Luzón, M.; Bueno Rodriguez, A.; Garcia Martinez, L.; Benitez, C.; Ibáñez, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic monitoring of active volcanoes is a popular remote sensing technique to detect seismic activity, often associated to energy exchanges between the volcano and the environment. As a result, seismographs register a wide range of volcano-seismic signals that reflect the nature and underlying physics of volcanic processes. Machine learning and signal processing techniques provide an appropriate framework to analyze such data. In this research, we propose a new classification framework for seismic events based on deep neural networks. Deep neural networks are composed by multiple processing layers, and can discover intrinsic patterns from the data itself. Internal parameters can be initialized using a greedy unsupervised pre-training stage, leading to an efficient training of fully connected architectures. We aim to determine the robustness of these architectures as classifiers of seven different types of seismic events recorded at "Volcán de Fuego" (Colima, Mexico). Two deep neural networks with different pre-training strategies are studied: stacked denoising autoencoder and deep belief networks. Results are compared to existing machine learning algorithms (SVM, Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron). We used 5 LPC coefficients over three non-overlapping segments as training features in order to characterize temporal evolution, avoid redundancy and encode the signal, regardless of its duration. Experimental results show that deep architectures can classify seismic events with higher accuracy than classical algorithms, attaining up to 92% recognition accuracy. Pre-training initialization helps these models to detect events that occur simultaneously in time (such explosions and rockfalls), increase robustness against noisy inputs, and provide better generalization. These results demonstrate deep neural networks are robust classifiers, and can be deployed in real-environments to monitor the seismicity of restless volcanoes.

  17. Short-Period Surface Wave Based Seismic Event Relocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White-Gaynor, A.; Cleveland, M.; Nyblade, A.; Kintner, J. A.; Homman, K.; Ammon, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and precise seismic event locations are essential for a broad range of geophysical investigations. Superior location accuracy generally requires calibration with ground truth information, but superb relative location precision is often achievable independently. In explosion seismology, low-yield explosion monitoring relies on near-source observations, which results in a limited number of observations that challenges our ability to estimate any locations. Incorporating more distant observations means relying on data with lower signal-to-noise ratios. For small, shallow events, the short-period (roughly 1/2 to 8 s period) fundamental-mode and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (including Rg) are often the most stable and visible portion of the waveform at local distances. Cleveland and Ammon [2013] have shown that teleseismic surface waves are valuable observations for constructing precise, relative event relocations. We extend the teleseismic surface wave relocation method, and apply them to near-source distances using Rg observations from the Bighorn Arche Seismic Experiment (BASE) and the Earth Scope USArray Transportable Array (TA) seismic stations. Specifically, we present relocation results using short-period fundamental- and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) in a double-difference relative event relocation for 45 delay-fired mine blasts and 21 borehole chemical explosions. Our preliminary efforts are to explore the sensitivity of the short-period surface waves to local geologic structure, source depth, explosion magnitude (yield), and explosion characteristics (single-shot vs. distributed source, etc.). Our results show that Rg and the first few higher-mode Rayleigh wave observations can be used to constrain the relative locations of shallow low-yield events.

  18. Distance effects on regional discriminants along a seismic profile in Northwest Nevada; NPE and nuclear results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormack, D.A. [AWE Blacknest, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Priestley, K.F. [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom); Patton, H.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    To address questions of discriminant transportability, it is important to understand how discriminants based on regional seismic phases are affected by regional variations in velocity structure. To examine this issue, we have recorded two explosions, the nuclear explosion Kinibito and the Non-Proliferation Experiment along a 300 km-long profile through western Nevada. We use these data to investigate the stability with distance of several proposed seismic discriminants. In this study we first estimate the apparent attenuation of the regional phases. We compare attenuation corrected amplitude ratios for P{sub n}/L{sub g} and P{sub g}/L{sub g}, and spectral ratios for P{sub n}, P{sub g}, and L{sub g}, as a function of distance along the profile. We make these comparisons for the vertical component and for the total vector resultant using all three components of motion.

  19. Source-Type Identification Analysis Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, A.; Dreger, D. S.; Ford, S. R.; Walter, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    Waveform inversion to determine the seismic moment tensor is a standard approach in determining the source mechanism of natural and manmade seismicity, and may be used to identify, or discriminate different types of seismic sources. The successful applications of the regional moment tensor method at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear tests (Ford et al., 2009a, 2009b, 2010) show that the method is robust and capable for source-type discrimination at regional distances. The well-separated populations of explosions, earthquakes and collapses on a Hudson et al., (1989) source-type diagram enables source-type discrimination; however the question remains whether or not the separation of events is universal in other regions, where we have limited station coverage and knowledge of Earth structure. Ford et al., (2012) have shown that combining regional waveform data and P-wave first motions removes the CLVD-isotropic tradeoff and uniquely discriminating the 2009 North Korean test as an explosion. Therefore, including additional constraints from regional and teleseismic P-wave first motions enables source-type discrimination at regions with limited station coverage. We present moment tensor analysis of earthquakes and explosions (M6) from Lop Nor and Semipalatinsk test sites for station paths crossing Kazakhstan and Western China. We also present analyses of smaller events from industrial sites. In these sparse coverage situations we combine regional long-period waveforms, and high-frequency P-wave polarity from the same stations, as well as from teleseismic arrays to constrain the source type. Discrimination capability with respect to velocity model and station coverage is examined, and additionally we investigate the velocity model dependence of vanishing free-surface traction effects on seismic moment tensor inversion of shallow sources and recovery of explosive scalar moment. Our synthetic data tests indicate that biases in scalar

  20. Study of seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbunova, Ella; Sanina, Irina; Ivanchenko, Galina; Nesterkina, Margarita; Konstantinovskaya, Natalya

    2015-04-01

    A measurement system for location seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform is situated within the Mikhnevo Geophysical Observatory of the RAS Institute of Geospheres Dynamics and consists of 12 seismic stations. One vertical station is located in the center of the group in a shaft tunnel. The other stations are located on the periphery in three concentric circles and are almost equally spaced with regard to the terrain to ensure full azimuth coverage to the maximum extent possible. The unique array identifies events with a magnitude up to 3 at the distances until 1000 km within the Central Part of East European platform. Most of the events recorded by the Mikhnevo array at a distance of 60-500 km are man-made events represented by explosions in quarries during the development of mineral deposits. Long-term seismic records of explosions in quarries have been processed for the period from 2004 to 2014 to generate a database containing standard waveforms for each quarry. Some events of unknown origin appear in the records for this period; these do not correspond to the identified seismic forms for explosions in known quarries. Epicenter coordinates for these events do not match the coordinates of the known quarries. A cosmotectonic map of the Central Part of East European Platform was compiled during the studies using the LESSA software package (Lineament Extraction and Stripe Statistical Analysis) and data on the deep crustal structure, which made it possible to define the morphostructural plan and evaluate the geodynamic conditions in the area. The deep basement structure through the sedimentary cover is expressed in the surface texture of the area under study. The region's neotectonics is closely related to the history of deep structures, in particular, aulacogens extending in different directions, which may show in the contemporary morphostructural plan, mainly as inversion and partially inherited forms. Out of events of unknown nature

  1. Evaluation of Fourier integral. Spectral analysis of seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chitaru, Cristian; Enescu, Dumitru

    2003-01-01

    Spectral analysis of seismic events represents a method for great earthquake prediction. The seismic signal is not a sinusoidal signal; for this, it is necessary to find a method for best approximation of real signal with a sinusoidal signal. The 'Quanterra' broadband station allows the data access in numerical and/or graphical forms. With the numerical form we can easily make a computer program (MSOFFICE-EXCEL) for spectral analysis. (authors)

  2. Epicenter Location of Regional Seismic Events Using Love Wave and Rayleigh Wave Ambient Seismic Noise Green's Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levshin, A. L.; Barmin, M. P.; Moschetti, M. P.; Mendoza, C.; Ritzwoller, M. H.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a novel method to locate regional seismic events based on exploiting Empirical Green's Functions (EGF) that are produced from ambient seismic noise. Elastic EGFs between pairs of seismic stations are determined by cross-correlating long time-series of ambient noise recorded at the two stations. The EGFs principally contain Rayleigh waves on the vertical-vertical cross-correlations and Love waves on the transverse-transverse cross-correlations. Earlier work (Barmin et al., "Epicentral location based on Rayleigh wave empirical Green's functions from ambient seismic noise", Geophys. J. Int., 2011) showed that group time delays observed on Rayleigh wave EGFs can be exploited to locate to within about 1 km moderate sized earthquakes using USArray Transportable Array (TA) stations. The principal advantage of the method is that the ambient noise EGFs are affected by lateral variations in structure similarly to the earthquake signals, so the location is largely unbiased by 3-D structure. However, locations based on Rayleigh waves alone may be biased by more than 1 km if the earthquake depth is unknown but lies between 2 km and 7 km. This presentation is motivated by the fact that group time delays for Love waves are much less affected by earthquake depth than Rayleigh waves; thus exploitation of Love wave EGFs may reduce location bias caused by uncertainty in event depth. The advantage of Love waves to locate seismic events, however, is mitigated by the fact that Love wave EGFs have a smaller SNR than Rayleigh waves. Here, we test the use of Love and Rayleigh wave EGFs between 5- and 15-sec period to locate seismic events based on the USArray TA in the western US. We focus on locating aftershocks of the 2008 M 6.0 Wells earthquake, mining blasts in Wyoming and Montana, and small earthquakes near Norman, OK and Dallas, TX, some of which may be triggered by hydrofracking or injection wells.

  3. Final Scientific Report, Integrated Seismic Event Detection and Location by Advanced Array Processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvaerna, T.; Gibbons. S.J.; Ringdal, F; Harris, D.B.

    2007-01-30

    In the field of nuclear explosion monitoring, it has become a priority to detect, locate, and identify seismic events down to increasingly small magnitudes. The consideration of smaller seismic events has implications for a reliable monitoring regime. Firstly, the number of events to be considered increases greatly; an exponential increase in naturally occurring seismicity is compounded by large numbers of seismic signals generated by human activity. Secondly, the signals from smaller events become more difficult to detect above the background noise and estimates of parameters required for locating the events may be subject to greater errors. Thirdly, events are likely to be observed by a far smaller number of seismic stations, and the reliability of event detection and location using a very limited set of observations needs to be quantified. For many key seismic stations, detection lists may be dominated by signals from routine industrial explosions which should be ascribed, automatically and with a high level of confidence, to known sources. This means that expensive analyst time is not spent locating routine events from repeating seismic sources and that events from unknown sources, which could be of concern in an explosion monitoring context, are more easily identified and can be examined with due care. We have obtained extensive lists of confirmed seismic events from mining and other artificial sources which have provided an excellent opportunity to assess the quality of existing fully-automatic event bulletins and to guide the development of new techniques for online seismic processing. Comparing the times and locations of confirmed events from sources in Fennoscandia and NW Russia with the corresponding time and location estimates reported in existing automatic bulletins has revealed substantial mislocation errors which preclude a confident association of detected signals with known industrial sources. The causes of the errors are well understood and are

  4. Final Scientific Report, Integrated Seismic Event Detection and Location by Advanced Array Processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaerna, T.; Gibbons. S.J.; Ringdal, F; Harris, D.B.

    2007-01-01

    In the field of nuclear explosion monitoring, it has become a priority to detect, locate, and identify seismic events down to increasingly small magnitudes. The consideration of smaller seismic events has implications for a reliable monitoring regime. Firstly, the number of events to be considered increases greatly; an exponential increase in naturally occurring seismicity is compounded by large numbers of seismic signals generated by human activity. Secondly, the signals from smaller events become more difficult to detect above the background noise and estimates of parameters required for locating the events may be subject to greater errors. Thirdly, events are likely to be observed by a far smaller number of seismic stations, and the reliability of event detection and location using a very limited set of observations needs to be quantified. For many key seismic stations, detection lists may be dominated by signals from routine industrial explosions which should be ascribed, automatically and with a high level of confidence, to known sources. This means that expensive analyst time is not spent locating routine events from repeating seismic sources and that events from unknown sources, which could be of concern in an explosion monitoring context, are more easily identified and can be examined with due care. We have obtained extensive lists of confirmed seismic events from mining and other artificial sources which have provided an excellent opportunity to assess the quality of existing fully-automatic event bulletins and to guide the development of new techniques for online seismic processing. Comparing the times and locations of confirmed events from sources in Fennoscandia and NW Russia with the corresponding time and location estimates reported in existing automatic bulletins has revealed substantial mislocation errors which preclude a confident association of detected signals with known industrial sources. The causes of the errors are well understood and are

  5. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  6. Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

  7. Seismic verification of underground explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glenn, L.A.

    1986-01-01

    The principal tools for monitoring compliance with a comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT), prohibiting all testing of nuclear weapons, are seismic networks and surveillance satellites. On-site inspections might also be required to resolve ambiguous events. The critical element of the monitoring system is the network of seismic stations, and in particular the in-country station. Internal stations provide much more useful data than do stations outside the borders of testing nations. For large events that are not eliminated by depth or location, one of the most useful discriminants is based on the ratio of surface-wave to body-wave magnitudes (M /sub s/ :m /sub b/ ). If an explosion and an earthquake have the same body-wave magnitude, the surface-wave magnitude for the earthquake is generally larger. It has yet to be proven that M /sub s/ :m /sub b/ is useful at low magnitudes, expecially when explosions are set off in long tunnels or odd-shaped cavities. A number of other promising regional discriminants have been suggested. Evasion opportunities and cavity decoupling are discussed

  8. Analysis of post-blasting source mechanisms of mining-induced seismic events in Rudna copper mine, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caputa Alicja

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of georesources by underground mining can be responsible for seismic activity in areas considered aseismic. Since strong seismic events are connected with rockburst hazard, it is a continuous requirement to reduce seismic risk. One of the most effective methods to do so is blasting in potentially hazardous mining panels. In this way, small to moderate tremors are provoked and stress accumulation is substantially reduced. In this paper we present an analysis of post-blasting events using Full Moment Tensor (MT inversion at the Rudna mine, Poland, underground seismic network. In addition, we describe the problems we faced when analyzing seismic signals. Our studies show that focal mechanisms for events that occurred after blasts exhibit common features in the MT solution. The strong isotropic and small Double Couple (DC component of the MT, indicate that these events were provoked by detonations. On the other hand, post-blasting MT is considerably different than the MT obtained for strong mining events. We believe that seismological analysis of provoked and unprovoked events can be a very useful tool in confirming the effectiveness of blasting in seismic hazard reduction in mining areas.

  9. Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Western Lake Ontario Region -relocation of the seismic events phase III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohajer, A.A.

    1995-12-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis in Canada relies mainly on recorded earthquake data. The ability to record earthquakes of a given magnitude has varied considerably over time as has the accuracy of location determinations. Recomputation of earthquake locations has been suggested as a possible means of improving the existing data base for better definition of seismic sources. In this study, the locations of more than 50 small to moderate magnitude earthquakes (M≤5), in the western Lake Ontario region, were examined. Available seismograph records in the Record Centre of the National Archives of Canada were examined for events that occurred prior to 1978. The events recorded after this date showed increasing accuracy in their location determinations due to initiation and improvements of the Eastern Canada Telemetry Network (ECTN). Data compiled from the study are based on the relocated and/or selected events with the minimum travel time residuals at the Canadian and American stations. Except for a few scattered events in the south-central part of the Lake Ontario region, microearthquakes (M<3.5) cluster along or at the intersection of prominent aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies, within the Toronto-Hamilton Seismic Zone. This is indicative of certain seismotectonic relationships in this region. The depth distribution or the better located events show that a range of 5 to 20 km is dominant and, therefore, they are not near-surface stress relief phenomena. However, details of the structural manifestation of inferred seismogenic features need further ground truthing, backed by long term seismic monitoring. (author) 66 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs

  10. Seismic rupture study using near-source data: application to seismic hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, Bruno

    2000-01-01

    This work presents seismic source studies using near-field data. In accordance with the quality and the quantity of available data we developed and applied various methods to characterize the seismic source. Macro-seismic data are used to verify if simple and robust methods used on recent instrumental earthquakes may provide a good tool to calibrate historical events in France. These data are often used to characterize earthquakes to be taken into account for seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions. Geodetic data (SAR, GPS) are used to estimate the slip distribution on the fault during the 1992, Landers, California earthquake. These data are also used to precise the location and the geometry of the main events of the 1997, Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake sequence. Finally, the strong motions contain the most complete information about rupture process. These data are used to discriminate between two possible fault planes of the 1999, north India, Chamoli earthquake. The strong motions recorded close to the 1999, Mexico, Oaxaca earthquake are used to constrain the rupture history. Strong motions a.re also used in combination with geodetic data to access the rupture history of the Landers earthquake and the main events of the Colfiorito seismic sequence. For the Landers earthquake, the data quality and complementarity offered the possibility to describe the rupture development with accuracy. The large heterogeneities in both slip amplitude and rupture velocity variations suggest that the rupture propagates by breaking successive asperities rather than by propagating like a pulse at constant velocity. The rupture front slows as it encounters barriers and accelerates within main asperities. (author)

  11. Structure of the Suasselkä postglacial fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of local events and ambient seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Kukkonen, Ilmo; Dafne/Finland Working Group

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of local seismic events and ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in the northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä postglacial fault (SPGF), which was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised an area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of eight short-period and four broadband three-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September 2011-May 2013. Recordings of the array have being analysed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä gold mine. As a result, we found a number of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single-station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate corresponding surface wave dispersion curves. The S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curve inversion. The results suggest that the area of

  12. A discrimination problem from seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elvers, E.

    1975-12-01

    Seismic discrimination between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions is studied, utilizing magnitudes of two kinds from several seismic stations. A model is given first, where the mean values of the magnitudes are linear fuctions of a parameter describing event size. It is shown how the model parameters can be estimated after a minor restriction on their space. When the discrimination rule is derived from the model, a few different approaches are considered, and they are shown to coincide. It is found reasonabel to use a discriminant, which is linear in the magnitudes, and explicit formulas are obtained. The power of the method is expressed by a measure of separation between the alternatives, which also shows the importance of the individual magnitudes. Missing data is a frequent problem in practice, and the case is treated where there is a detection threshold for one of the magnitudes. The classicfication probabilities are computed when applying the rule to the available magnitudes, and they depend on the event size. The method is not optimal, and it is shown that it can be improved by using the technique of identification by negative evidence, i.e. by utilizing the threshold as upper bound for a missing magnitude. The model is one of general use, and the results thus have a wider applicability. (author)

  13. The Banat seismic network: Evolution and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oros, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the Banat Seismic Region, with its important seismogenic zones (Banat and Danube), operates today the Banat Seismic Network. This network has four short period seismic stations telemetered at the Timisoara Seismological Observatory (since 1995): Siria, Banloc, Buzias and Timisoara. The stations are equipped with short-period S13 seismometers (1 second). The data recorded by the short-period stations are telemetered to Timisoara where they are digitized at 50 samples per second, with 16 bit resolution. At Timisoara works SAPS, an automated system for data acquisition and processing, which performs real-time event detection (based on Allen algorithm), discrimination between local and teleseismic events, automatic P and S waves picking, location and magnitude determination for local events and teleseisms, 'feeding' of an Automatic Data Request Manager with phases, locations and waveforms, sending of earthquake information (as phases and location), by e-mail to Bucharest. The beginning of the seismological observations in Banat is in the 1880's (Timisoara Meteorological Observatory). The first seismograph was installed in Timisoara in 1901, and its systematic observations began in 1902. The World War I interrupted its work. In 1942 Prof. I. Curea founded the Seismic Station Timisoara, and since 1967 until today this station worked into a special building. After 1972 two stations with high amplification were installed in Retezat Mts (Gura Zlata) and on Nera Valey (Susara), as a consequence of the research results. Since 1982 Buzias station began to work completing the Banat Seismic Network. Therefore, the network could detect and locate any local seismic event with M > 2.2. Moreover, up to 20 km distance from each station any seismic event could be detected over M = 0.5. The paper also presents the quality of the locations versus different local seismic sources. (author)

  14. The sequentially discounting autoregressive (SDAR) method for on-line automatic seismic event detecting on long term observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Toshioka, T.; Nakajima, T.; Narita, A.; Xue, Z.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, more and more Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) studies focus on seismicity monitoring. For the safety management of geological CO2 storage at Tomakomai, Hokkaido, Japan, an Advanced Traffic Light System (ATLS) combined different seismic messages (magnitudes, phases, distributions et al.) is proposed for injection controlling. The primary task for ATLS is the seismic events detection in a long-term sustained time series record. Considering the time-varying characteristics of Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of a long-term record and the uneven energy distributions of seismic event waveforms will increase the difficulty in automatic seismic detecting, in this work, an improved probability autoregressive (AR) method for automatic seismic event detecting is applied. This algorithm, called sequentially discounting AR learning (SDAR), can identify the effective seismic event in the time series through the Change Point detection (CPD) of the seismic record. In this method, an anomaly signal (seismic event) can be designed as a change point on the time series (seismic record). The statistical model of the signal in the neighborhood of event point will change, because of the seismic event occurrence. This means the SDAR aims to find the statistical irregularities of the record thought CPD. There are 3 advantages of SDAR. 1. Anti-noise ability. The SDAR does not use waveform messages (such as amplitude, energy, polarization) for signal detecting. Therefore, it is an appropriate technique for low SNR data. 2. Real-time estimation. When new data appears in the record, the probability distribution models can be automatic updated by SDAR for on-line processing. 3. Discounting property. the SDAR introduces a discounting parameter to decrease the influence of present statistic value on future data. It makes SDAR as a robust algorithm for non-stationary signal processing. Within these 3 advantages, the SDAR method can handle the non-stationary time-varying long

  15. Method to Calculate Accurate Top Event Probability in a Seismic PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    ACUBE(Advanced Cutset Upper Bound Estimator) calculates the top event probability and importance measures from cutsets by dividing cutsets into major and minor groups depending on the cutset probability, where the cutsets that have higher cutset probability are included in the major group and the others in minor cutsets, converting major cutsets into a Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. ACUBE works by dividing the cutsets into two groups (higher and lower cutset probability groups), calculating the top event probability and importance measures in each group, and combining the two results from the two groups. Here, ACUBE calculates the top event probability and importance measures of the higher cutset probability group exactly. On the other hand, ACUBE calculates these measures of the lower cutset probability group with an approximation such as MCUB. The ACUBE algorithm is useful for decreasing the conservatism that is caused by approximating the top event probability and importance measure calculations with given cutsets. By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. This study shows that careful attention should be paid and an appropriate method be provided in order to avoid the significant overestimation of the top event probability calculation. Due to the strength of ACUBE that is explained in this study, the ACUBE became a vital tool for calculating more accurate CDF of the seismic PSA cutsets than the conventional probability calculation method.

  16. Detecting Micro-seismicity and Long-duration Tremor-like Events from the Oklahoma Wavefield Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C.; Li, Z.; Peng, Z.; Zhang, C.; Nakata, N.

    2017-12-01

    Oklahoma has experienced abrupt increase of induced seismicity in the last decade. An important way to fully understand seismic activities in Oklahoma is to obtain more complete earthquake catalogs and detect different types of seismic events. The IRIS Community Wavefield Demonstration Experiment was deployed near Enid, Oklahoma in Summer of 2016. The dataset from this ultra-dense array provides an excellent opportunity for detecting microseismicity in that region with wavefield approaches. Here we examine continuous waveforms recorded by 3 seismic lines using local coherence for ultra-dense arrays (Li et al., 2017), which is a measure of cross-correlation of waveform at each station with its nearby stations. So far we have detected more than 5,000 events from 06/22/2016 to 07/20/2016, and majority of them are not listed on the regional catalog of Oklahoma or global catalogs, indicating that they are local events. We also identify 15-20 long-period long-duration events, some of them lasting for more than 500 s. Such events have been found at major plate-boundary faults (also known as deep tectonic tremor), as well as during hydraulic fracturing, slow-moving landslides and glaciers. Our next step is to locate these possible tremor-like events with their relative arrival times across the array and compare their occurrence times with solid-earth tides and injection histories to better understand their driving mechanisms.

  17. The unique contribution of the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin to global seismicity catalogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Karl; Kebede, Fekadu

    2010-05-01

    For monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) the International Monitoring System (IMS) network is currently being established that will eventually consists of 241 seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound stations. The final result of processing and analysis of seismological and other waveform technology data from these stations is the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB), which has been issued by the International Data Center (IDC) under provisional operation since February 2000 on a daily basis, except for a total of 28 days. The nearly 300,000 events produced since then correspond to more than 25,000 events per year. As an accompanying effort to the bulletin production at the IDC, quality assurance work has been carried out for the REB for the years from 2000 to 2008 through comparisons to similar bulletins of global seismicity, issued by the ISC and the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey. The comparisons with the NEIC bulletin concentrate on a timely identification of larger events that were either missed during interactive analysis at the IDC or which have been significantly mislocated. For the scope of this study the comparisons with the ISC bulletin are the focus, as this bulletin provides the most complete reference to global seismicity, even though it becomes available only after about two years of event occurrence. In our quality assessments we aimed at evaluating the consistency of event locations for common events, i.e. found in both the REB and the ISC bulletin having been relocated by ISC; the degree and the geospatial location of the events only produced in the REB and verified not being bogus, and those ISC relocated events not contained in the REB and which were missed during IDC analysis. Even though the seismic component of the IMS network with its maximum 170 seismometer stations is a sparse teleseismic network, locations differences of less than 1° (0.5° ) are observed, on average, for

  18. Passive seismic monitoring of the Bering Glacier during its last surge event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The physical causes behind glacier surges are still unclear. Numerous evidences suggest that they probably involve changes in glacier basal conditions, such as switch of basal water system from concentrated large tunnels to a distributed "layer" as "connected cavities". However, most remote sensing approaches can not penetrate to the base to monitor such changes continuously. Here we apply seismic interferometry using ambient noise to monitor glacier seismic structures, especially to detect possible signatures of the hypothesized high-pressure water "layer". As an example, we derive an 11-year long history of seismic structure of the Bering Glacier, Alaska, covering its latest surge event. We observe substantial drops of Rayleigh and Love wavespeeds across the glacier during the surge event, potentially caused by changes in crevasse density, glacier thickness, and basal conditions.

  19. Adaptive Sensor Tuning for Seismic Event Detection in Environment with Electromagnetic Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Abra E.

    The goal of this research is to detect possible microseismic events at a carbon sequestration site. Data recorded on a continuous downhole microseismic array in the Farnsworth Field, an oil field in Northern Texas that hosts an ongoing carbon capture, utilization, and storage project, were evaluated using machine learning and reinforcement learning techniques to determine their effectiveness at seismic event detection on a dataset with electromagnetic noise. The data were recorded from a passive vertical monitoring array consisting of 16 levels of 3-component 15 Hz geophones installed in the field and continuously recording since January 2014. Electromagnetic and other noise recorded on the array has significantly impacted the utility of the data and it was necessary to characterize and filter the noise in order to attempt event detection. Traditional detection methods using short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) algorithms were evaluated and determined to be ineffective because of changing noise levels. To improve the performance of event detection and automatically and dynamically detect seismic events using effective data processing parameters, an adaptive sensor tuning (AST) algorithm developed by Sandia National Laboratories was utilized. AST exploits neuro-dynamic programming (reinforcement learning) trained with historic event data to automatically self-tune and determine optimal detection parameter settings. The key metric that guides the AST algorithm is consistency of each sensor with its nearest neighbors: parameters are automatically adjusted on a per station basis to be more or less sensitive to produce consistent agreement of detections in its neighborhood. The effects that changes in neighborhood configuration have on signal detection were explored, as it was determined that neighborhood-based detections significantly reduce the number of both missed and false detections in ground-truthed data. The performance of the AST algorithm was

  20. A new moonquake catalog from Apollo 17 seismic data I: Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment: Thermal moonquakes and implications for surface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, R. C.; Dimech, J. L.; Phillips, D.; Molaro, J.; Schmerr, N. C.

    2017-12-01

    Apollo 17's Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment's (LSPE) primary objective was to constrain the near-surface velocity structure at the landing site using active sources detected by a 100 m-wide triangular geophone array. The experiment was later operated in "listening mode," and early studies of these data revealed the presence of thermal moonquakes - short-duration seismic events associated with terminator crossings. However, the full data set has never been systematically analyzed for natural seismic signal content. In this study, we analyze 8 months of continuous LSPE data using an automated event detection technique that has previously successfully been applied to the Apollo 16 Passive Seismic Experiment data. We detected 50,000 thermal moonquakes from three distinct event templates, representing impulsive, intermediate, and emergent onset of seismic energy, which we interpret as reflecting their relative distance from the array. Impulsive events occur largely at sunrise, possibly representing the thermal "pinging" of the nearby lunar lander, while emergent events occur at sunset, possibly representing cracking or slumping in more distant surface rocks and regolith. Preliminary application of an iterative event location algorithm to a subset of the impulsive waveforms supports this interpretation. We also perform 3D modeling of the lunar surface to explore the relative contribution of the lander, known rocks and surrounding topography to the thermal state of the regolith in the vicinity of the Apollo 17 landing site over the course of the lunar diurnal cycle. Further development of both this model and the event location algorithm may permit definitive discrimination between different types of local diurnal events e.g. lander noise, thermally-induced rock breakdown, or fault creep on the nearby Lee-Lincoln scarp. These results could place important constraints on both the contribution of seismicity to regolith production, and the age of young lobate scarps.

  1. Spatial pattern recognition of seismic events in South West Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez, Hernán D.; Flórez, Juan F.; Duque, Diana P.; Benavides, Alberto; Lucía Baquero, Olga; Quintero, Jiber

    2013-09-01

    Recognition of seismogenic zones in geographical regions supports seismic hazard studies. This recognition is usually based on visual, qualitative and subjective analysis of data. Spatial pattern recognition provides a well founded means to obtain relevant information from large amounts of data. The purpose of this work is to identify and classify spatial patterns in instrumental data of the South West Colombian seismic database. In this research, clustering tendency analysis validates whether seismic database possesses a clustering structure. A non-supervised fuzzy clustering algorithm creates groups of seismic events. Given the sensitivity of fuzzy clustering algorithms to centroid initial positions, we proposed a methodology to initialize centroids that generates stable partitions with respect to centroid initialization. As a result of this work, a public software tool provides the user with the routines developed for clustering methodology. The analysis of the seismogenic zones obtained reveals meaningful spatial patterns in South-West Colombia. The clustering analysis provides a quantitative location and dispersion of seismogenic zones that facilitates seismological interpretations of seismic activities in South West Colombia.

  2. Current challenges in monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity related to underground industrial activities: A European perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigoli, Francesco; Cesca, Simone; Priolo, Enrico; Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Clinton, John F.; Stabile, Tony A.; Dost, Bernard; Fernandez, Mariano Garcia; Wiemer, Stefan; Dahm, Torsten

    2017-06-01

    Due to the deep socioeconomic implications, induced seismicity is a timely and increasingly relevant topic of interest for the general public. Cases of induced seismicity have a global distribution and involve a large number of industrial operations, with many documented cases from as far back to the beginning of the twentieth century. However, the sparse and fragmented documentation available makes it difficult to have a clear picture on our understanding of the physical phenomenon and consequently in our ability to mitigate the risk associated with induced seismicity. This review presents a unified and concise summary of the still open questions related to monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity in the European context and, when possible, provides potential answers. We further discuss selected critical European cases of induced seismicity, which led to the suspension or reduction of the related industrial activities.

  3. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

    2011-01-01

    In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

  4. Error Analysis in the Joint Event Location/Seismic Calibration Inverse Problem

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rodi, William L

    2006-01-01

    This project is developing new mathematical and computational techniques for analyzing the uncertainty in seismic event locations, as induced by observational errors and errors in travel-time models...

  5. Regional Seismic Amplitude Modeling and Tomography for Earthquake-Explosion Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, W. R.; Pasyanos, M. E.; Matzel, E.; Gok, R.; Sweeney, J.; Ford, S. R.; Rodgers, A. J.

    2008-12-01

    Empirically explosions have been discriminated from natural earthquakes using regional amplitude ratio techniques such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. We demonstrate that such ratios discriminate nuclear tests from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling. For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East.

  6. Shallow repeating seismic events under an alpine glacier at Mount Rainier, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Allstadt, Kate E.; De Angelis, Silvio; Malone, Stephen D.; Moran, Seth C.; Vidale, John

    2013-01-01

    We observed several swarms of repeating low-frequency (1–5 Hz) seismic events during a 3 week period in May–June 2010, near the summit of Mount Rainier, Washington, USA, that likely were a result of stick–slip motion at the base of alpine glaciers. The dominant set of repeating events ('multiplets') featured >4000 individual events and did not exhibit daytime variations in recurrence interval or amplitude. Volcanoes and glaciers around the world are known to produce seismic signals with great variability in both frequency content and size. The low-frequency character and periodic recurrence of the Mount Rainier multiplets mimic long-period seismicity often seen at volcanoes, particularly during periods of unrest. However, their near-surface location, lack of common spectral peaks across the recording network, rapid attenuation of amplitudes with distance, and temporal correlation with weather systems all indicate that ice-related source mechanisms are the most likely explanation. We interpret the low-frequency character of these multiplets to be the result of trapping of seismic energy under glacial ice as it propagates through the highly heterogeneous and attenuating volcanic material. The Mount Rainier multiplet sequences underscore the difficulties in differentiating low-frequency signals due to glacial processes from those caused by volcanic processes on glacier-clad volcanoes.

  7. Discriminating between natural versus induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnani, Maria Beatrice; Blanpied, Michael L; DeShon, Heather R; Hornbach, Matthew J

    2017-11-01

    To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009, earthquake activity in the CUS has increased markedly, and numerous publications suggest that this increase is primarily due to induced earthquakes caused by deep-well injection of wastewater, both flowback water from hydrofracturing operations and produced water accompanying hydrocarbon production. Alternatively, some argue that these earthquakes are natural and that the seismicity increase is a normal variation that occurs over millions of years. Our analysis shows that within the NME, faults deform both Quaternary alluvium and underlying sediments dating from Paleozoic through Tertiary, with displacement increasing with geologic unit age, documenting a long history of natural activity. In the FWB, a region of ongoing wastewater injection, basement faults show deformation of the Proterozoic and Paleozoic units, but little or no deformation of younger strata. Specifically, vertical displacements in the post-Pennsylvanian formations, if any, are below the resolution (~15 m) of the seismic data, far less than expected had these faults accumulated deformation over millions of years. Our results support the assertion that recent FWB earthquakes are of induced origin; this conclusion is entirely independent of analyses correlating seismicity and wastewater injection practices. To our knowledge, this is the first study to discriminate natural and induced seismicity using classical structural geology analysis techniques.

  8. Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. N.; Patton, H. J.; Taylor, S. R.; Bonner, J. L.; Selby, N. D.

    2014-03-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.

  9. Seismic moment tensor resolution on a local scale: Simulated rockburst and mine-induced seismic events in the Kopanang gold mine, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sileny, J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available of regional events in the western Mediterranean are summarized by STICH et al. (2003). The moderate regional events around Japan are documented in the NIED catalogue by KUBO et al. (2002). Several case studies were performed to invert short- period records... and Metallurgy 101, 223? 234. Vol. 163, 2006 Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale 1511 KRAVANJA, S., PANZA, G.F., and S? I? LENY? , J. (1999), Robust retrieval of a seismic point-source time function, Geophys. J. Int. 136, 385?394. KUBO, A., FUKUYAMA...

  10. Statistical study of seismicity associated with geothermal reservoirs in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadley, D.M.; Cavit, D.S.

    1982-01-01

    Statistical methods are outlined to separate spatially, temporally, and magnitude-dependent portions of both the random and non-random components of the seismicity. The methodology employed compares the seismicity distributions with a generalized Poisson distribution. Temporally related events are identified by the distribution of the interoccurrence times. The regions studied to date include the Imperial Valley, Coso, The Geysers, Lassen, and the San Jacinto fault. The spatial characteristics of the random and clustered components of the seismicity are diffuse and appear unsuitable for defining the areal extent of the reservoir. However, from the temporal characteristics of the seismicity associated with these regions a general discriminant was constructed that combines several physical parameters for identifying the presence of a geothermal system.

  11. A new event detector designed for the Seismic Research Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, James N.; Hutt, Charles R.

    1983-01-01

    A new short-period event detector has been implemented on the Seismic Research Observatories. For each signal detected, a printed output gives estimates of the time of onset of the signal, direction of the first break, quality of onset, period and maximum amplitude of the signal, and an estimate of the variability of the background noise. On the SRO system, the new algorithm runs ~2.5x faster than the former (power level) detector. This increase in speed is due to the design of the algorithm: all operations can be performed by simple shifts, additions, and comparisons (floating point operations are not required). Even though a narrow-band recursive filter is not used, the algorithm appears to detect events competitively with those algorithms that employ such filters. Tests at Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory on data supplied by Blandford suggest performance commensurate with the on-line detector of the Seismic Data Analysis Center, Alexandria, Virginia.

  12. Changes in water table elevation at Yucca Mountain in response to seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, B.W.

    1996-01-01

    Investigation of mechanisms which could significantly alter the elevation of the water table at Yucca Mountain are motivated by the potential impacts such an occurrence would have on the performance of a high-level radioactive waste repository. In particular, we would like to evaluate the possibility of flooding a repository by water-table excursions. Changes in the water table could occur as relatively transient phenomena in response to seismic events by the seismic pumping mechanism. Quantitative evaluation of possible fluctuations of groundwater following earthquakes was undertaken in support of performance assessment calculations including seismicity

  13. Improvements in seismic event locations in a deep western U.S. coal mine using tomographic velocity models and an evolutionary search algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adam Lurka; Peter Swanson [Central Mining Institute, Katowice (Poland)

    2009-09-15

    Methods of improving seismic event locations were investigated as part of a research study aimed at reducing ground control safety hazards. Seismic event waveforms collected with a 23-station three-dimensional sensor array during longwall coal mining provide the data set used in the analyses. A spatially variable seismic velocity model is constructed using seismic event sources in a passive tomographic method. The resulting three-dimensional velocity model is used to relocate seismic event positions. An evolutionary optimization algorithm is implemented and used in both the velocity model development and in seeking improved event location solutions. Results obtained using the different velocity models are compared. The combination of the tomographic velocity model development and evolutionary search algorithm provides improvement to the event locations. 13 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. Romanian seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Rizescu, Mihaela; Popa, Mihaela; Grigore, Adrian

    2000-01-01

    The research in the field of seismology in Romania is mainly carried out by the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP). The NIEP activities are mainly concerned with the fundamental research financed by research contracts from public sources and the maintenance and operation of the Romanian seismic network. A three stage seismic network is now operating under NIEP, designed mainly to monitor the Vrancea seismic region in a magnitude range from microearthquakes to strong events: - network of 18 short-period seismometers (S13); - Teledyne Geotech Instruments (Texas); - network of 7 stations with local digital recording (PCM-5000) on magnetic tape, made up of, S13 geophone (T=2 s) on vertical component and SH1 geophone (T=5 s) on horizontal components; - network of 28 SMA-1 accelerometers and 30 digital accelerometers (Kinemetrics - K2) installed in the free field conditions in the framework of the joint German-Romanian cooperation program (CRC); the K2 instruments cover a magnitude range from 1.4 to 8.0. Since 1994, MLR (Muntele Rosu) station has become part of the GEOFON network and was provided with high performance broad band instruments. At Bucharest and Timisoara data centers, an automated and networked seismological system performs the on-line digital acquisition and processing of the telemetered data. Automatic processing includes discrimination between local and distant seismic events, earthquake location and magnitude computation, and source parameter determination for local earthquakes. The results are rapidly distributed via Internet, to several seismological services in Europe and USA, to be used in the association/confirmation procedures. Plans for new developments of the network include the upgrade from analog to digital telemetry and new stations for monitoring local seismicity. (authors)

  15. Focal mechanism of seismic events with a dipolar component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Console

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we model the geometry of a seismic source as a dislocation occurring on an elemental flat fault in an arbitrary direction with respect to the fault plane. This implies the use of a fourth parameter in addition to the three usual ones describing a simple double couple mechanism. We applied the radiation pattern obtained from the theory to a computer code written for the inversion of the observation data (amplitudes and polarities of the first onsets recorded by a network of stations. It allows the determination of the fault mechanism gener- alized in the above mentioned way. The computer code was verified on synthetic data and then applied to real data recorded by the seismic network operated by the Ente Nazionale per l'Energia Elettrica (ENEL, monitoring the geothermal field of Larderello. The experimental data show that for some events the source mechanism exhibits a significant dipolar component. However, due to the high standard deviation of the amplitude data, F-test applied to the results of the analysis shows that only for two events the confidence level for the general- ized model exceeds 90%.

  16. Detection of ULF geomagnetic signals associated with seismic events in Central Mexico using Discrete Wavelet Transform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chavez

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The geomagnetic observatory of Juriquilla Mexico, located at longitude –100.45° and latitude 20.70°, and 1946 m a.s.l., has been operational since June 2004 compiling geomagnetic field measurements with a three component fluxgate magnetometer. In this paper, the results of the analysis of these measurements in relation to important seismic activity in the period of 2007 to 2009 are presented. For this purpose, we used superposed epochs of Discrete Wavelet Transform of filtered signals for the three components of the geomagnetic field during relative seismic calm, and it was compared with seismic events of magnitudes greater than Ms > 5.5, which have occurred in Mexico. The analysed epochs consisted of 18 h of observations for a dataset corresponding to 18 different earthquakes (EQs. The time series were processed for a period of 9 h prior to and 9 h after each seismic event. This data processing was compared with the same number of observations during a seismic calm. The proposed methodology proved to be an efficient tool to detect signals associated with seismic activity, especially when the seismic events occur in a distance (D from the observatory to the EQ, such that the ratio D/ρ < 1.8 where ρ is the earthquake radius preparation zone. The methodology presented herein shows important anomalies in the Ultra Low Frequency Range (ULF; 0.005–1 Hz, primarily for 0.25 to 0.5 Hz. Furthermore, the time variance (σ2 increases prior to, during and after the seismic event in relation to the coefficient D1 obtained, principally in the Bx (N-S and By (E-W geomagnetic components. Therefore, this paper proposes and develops a new methodology to extract the abnormal signals of the geomagnetic anomalies related to different stages of the EQs.

  17. Containment performance evaluation for the GESSAR-II plant for seismic initiating events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiu, K.K.; Chu, T.; Ludewig, H.; Pratt, W.T.

    1986-01-01

    As a part of the overall effort undertaken by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to review the GESSAR-II probabilistic risk assessment, an independent containment performance evaluation was performed using the containment event tree approach. This evaluation focused principally on those accident sequences which are initiated by seismic events. This paper reports the findings of this study. 1 ref

  18. Location of the Green Canyon (Offshore Southern Louisiana) Seismic Event of February 10, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, James W.; Dellinger, Joseph A.

    2008-01-01

    We calculated an epicenter for the Offshore Southern Louisiana seismic event of February 10, 2006 (the 'Green Canyon event') that was adopted as the preferred epicenter for the event by the USGS/NEIC. The event is held at a focal depth of 5 km; the focal depth could not be reliably calculated but was most likely between 1 km and 15 km beneath sea level. The epicenter was calculated with a radially symmetric global Earth model similar to that routinely used at the USGS/NEIC for all earthquakes worldwide. The location was calculated using P-waves recorded by seismographic stations from which the USGS/NEIC routinely obtains seismological data, plus data from two seismic exploration arrays, the Atlantis ocean-bottom node array, operated by BP in partnership with BHP Billiton Limited, and the CGG Green Canyon phase VIII multi-client towed-streamer survey. The preferred epicenter is approximately 26 km north of an epicenter earlier published by the USGS/NEIC, which was obtained without benefit of the seismic exploration arrays. We estimate that the preferred epicenter is accurate to within 15 km. We selected the preferred epicenter from a suite of trial calculations that attempted to fit arrival times of seismic energy associated with the Green Canyon event and that explored the effect of errors in the velocity model used to calculate the preferred epicenter. The various trials were helpful in confirming the approximate correctness of the preferred epicenter and in assessing the accuracy of the preferred epicenter, but none of the trial calculations, including that of the preferred epicenter, was able to reconcile arrival-time observations and assumed velocity model as well as is typical for the vast majority of earthquakes in and near the continental United States. We believe that remaining misfits between the preferred solution and the observations reflect errors in interpreted arrival times of emergent seismic phases that are due partly to a temporally extended source

  19. Discrimination of Earthquakes and Explosions using Multi-fractal Singularity Spectrums Properties

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lyubushin, A. A.; Kaláb, Zdeněk; Lednická, Markéta; Haggag, H. M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 3 (2013), s. 975-983 ISSN 1383-4649 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : multi- fractal parameters * singularity spectrum * seismic event discrimination Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.386, year: 2013 http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10950-013-9366-3.pdf

  20. Full-waveform detection of non-impulsive seismic events based on time-reversal methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solano, Ericka Alinne; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Liu, Qinya

    2017-12-01

    We present a full-waveform detection method for non-impulsive seismic events, based on time-reversal principles. We use the strain Green's tensor as a matched filter, correlating it with continuous observed seismograms, to detect non-impulsive seismic events. We show that this is mathematically equivalent to an adjoint method for detecting earthquakes. We define the detection function, a scalar valued function, which depends on the stacked correlations for a group of stations. Event detections are given by the times at which the amplitude of the detection function exceeds a given value relative to the noise level. The method can make use of the whole seismic waveform or any combination of time-windows with different filters. It is expected to have an advantage compared to traditional detection methods for events that do not produce energetic and impulsive P waves, for example glacial events, landslides, volcanic events and transform-fault earthquakes for events which velocity structure along the path is relatively well known. Furthermore, the method has advantages over empirical Greens functions template matching methods, as it does not depend on records from previously detected events, and therefore is not limited to events occurring in similar regions and with similar focal mechanisms as these events. The method is not specific to any particular way of calculating the synthetic seismograms, and therefore complicated structural models can be used. This is particularly beneficial for intermediate size events that are registered on regional networks, for which the effect of lateral structure on the waveforms can be significant. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, we apply it to two different areas located along the mid-oceanic ridge system west of Mexico where non-impulsive events have been reported. The first study area is between Clipperton and Siqueiros transform faults (9°N), during the time of two earthquake swarms, occurring in March 2012 and May

  1. Investigating source processes of isotropic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Andrea

    This dissertation demonstrates the utility of the complete waveform regional moment tensor inversion for nuclear event discrimination. I explore the source processes and associated uncertainties for explosions and earthquakes under the effects of limited station coverage, compound seismic sources, assumptions in velocity models and the corresponding Green's functions, and the effects of shallow source depth and free-surface conditions. The motivation to develop better techniques to obtain reliable source mechanism and assess uncertainties is not limited to nuclear monitoring, but they also provide quantitative information about the characteristics of seismic hazards, local and regional tectonics and in-situ stress fields of the region . This dissertation begins with the analysis of three sparsely recorded events: the 14 September 1988 US-Soviet Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) nuclear test at the Semipalatinsk test site in Eastern Kazakhstan, and two nuclear explosions at the Chinese Lop Nor test site. We utilize a regional distance seismic waveform method fitting long-period, complete, three-component waveforms jointly with first-motion observations from regional stations and teleseismic arrays. The combination of long period waveforms and first motion observations provides unique discrimination of these sparsely recorded events in the context of the Hudson et al. (1989) source-type diagram. We examine the effects of the free surface on the moment tensor via synthetic testing, and apply the moment tensor based discrimination method to well-recorded chemical explosions. These shallow chemical explosions represent rather severe source-station geometry in terms of the vanishing traction issues. We show that the combined waveform and first motion method enables the unique discrimination of these events, even though the data include unmodeled single force components resulting from the collapse and blowout of the quarry face immediately following the initial

  2. Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-04-30

    mechanisms for foreshock , mainshock, and aftershock sequences using Seismic Research Observatory (SRO) data, EOS, 57(12), p. 954, 1976. Bache, T.C., W.L...the event as well as that of the immediate foreshock were 95 located (Allen and Nordquist, 1972) and where the largest surface displacements were...1972). Foreshock , main shock and larger aftershocks of the Borrego Mountain earthquake, U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 787, 16-23. Bache

  3. Monitoring El Hierro submarine volcanic eruption events with a submarine seismic array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, Maria Jose; Molino, Erik; Lopez, Carmen

    2013-04-01

    A submarine volcanic eruption took place near the southernmost emerged land of the El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain), from October 2011 to February 2012. The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) seismic stations network evidenced seismic unrest since July 2012 and was a reference also to follow the evolution of the seismic activity associated with the volcanic eruption. From the beginning of the eruption a geophone string was installed less than 2 km away from the new volcano, next to La Restinga village shore, to record seismic activity related to the volcanic activity, continuously and with special interest on high frequency events. The seismic array was endowed with 8, high frequency, 3 component, 250 Hz, geophone cable string with a separation of 6 m between them. The analysis of the dataset using spectral techniques allows the characterization of the different phases of the eruption and the study of its dynamics. The correlation of the data analysis results with the observed sea surface activity (ash and lava emission and degassing) and also with the seismic activity recorded by the IGN field seismic monitoring system, allows the identification of different stages suggesting the existence of different signal sources during the volcanic eruption and also the posteruptive record of the degassing activity. The study shows that the high frequency capability of the geophone array allow the study of important features that cannot be registered by the standard seismic stations. The accumulative spectral amplitude show features related to eruptive changes.

  4. Use of waveform similarity to define planes of mining-induced seismic events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spottiswoode, SM

    1998-04-15

    Full Text Available can be associated with failure of previously unfractured rock (Ortlepp, 1978), geological discon- tinuities, large and small, play an important role. The largest mining-induced seismic events are usually as- sociated with faults and dykes (Gay et al... by SIMRAC under the project GAP033. We would like to thank Blyvooruitzicht Mine and R.J. Stewart for use of the seismic data. The au- thors thank N.C. Gay for his helpful review and discussions. References Deichmann, N., Garcia-Fernandez, M., 1992. Rupture...

  5. Peculiarity of the temporal distributions of seismic events in the Central America and Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasorova, E.; Levin, B.

    2010-03-01

    At first the interannual earthquake distributions and its peculiarity in predetermined region are considered. The hypothesis about within-year variability existence for the events of various energy levels was tested. The worldwide catalogs ISC (International Seismic Catalog) and NEIC (USGS) were used. It was extracted all EQs for the Pacific part of the given region from 1964 with Mb>=4.0. The entire set of events under analysis was divided into several magnitude ranges (MR). The analysis of the completeness of events in defined MRs was carried out. The aftershocks were canceled from the list. Further analysis was performed separately for each MR. Then the events in each magnitude level were subdivided once again into two groups: shallow events (H Htr), where Htr is depth threshold value. Then we are checking if the distributions of the events during the year period are uniform or these distributions are no uniform. We are testing our data separately for each magnitude level and for every depth level. The null hypothesis about uniform EQ distributions in the course of year was disproved for the most samples with shallow EQ (95%). But the null hypothesis was confirmed for deep earthquakes. We use the Chi-Square test for well-filled sequences and method of statistical testing for poor-filled sequences. The Htr value determines the boundary, which divided the seismic events in two groups. If the EQ's sources located above this boundary then such EQ's are distributed non-uniformly in the course of year. While if the EQ sources located below this boundary then distribution of such EQ during the year period are uniform. It was found by using special software procedure that the Htr boundary between the shallow and the deep events in the most cases was arranged in deep 60-80 km. The noticeable increase number of seismic events in short time intervals as a rule two times in year, and significant reducing of seismic activity in the rest part of the year was shown. It was

  6. Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

    2007-05-01

    The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

  7. Experimental Seismic Event-screening Criteria at the Prototype International Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, M. D.; Jepsen, D.; Murphy, J. R.

    - Experimental seismic event-screening capabilities are described, based on the difference of body-and surface-wave magnitudes (denoted as Ms:mb) and event depth. These capabilities have been implemented and tested at the prototype International Data Center (PIDC), based on recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in June 1998. Screening scores are presented that indicate numerically the degree to which an event meets, or does not meet, the Ms:mb and depth screening criteria. Seismic events are also categorized as onshore, offshore, or mixed, based on their 90% location error ellipses and an onshore/offshore grid with five-minute resolution, although this analysis is not used at this time to screen out events.Results are presented of applications to almost 42,000 events with mb>=3.5 in the PIDC Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and to 121 underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the U.S. Nevada Test Site (NTS), the Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites in the Former Soviet Union, the Lop Nor test site in China, and the Indian, Pakistan, and French Polynesian test sites. The screening criteria appear to be quite conservative. None of the known UNE's are screened out, while about 41 percent of the presumed earthquakes in the SEB with mb>=3.5 are screened out. UNE's at the Lop Nor, Indian, and Pakistan test sites on 8 June 1996, 11 May 1998, and 28 May 1998, respectively, have among the lowest Ms:mb scores of all events in the SEB.To assess the validity of the depth screening results, comparisons are presented of SEB depth solutions to those in other bulletins that are presumed to be reliable and independent. Using over 1600 events, the comparisons indicate that the SEB depth confidence intervals are consistent with or shallower than over 99.8 percent of the corresponding depth estimates in the other bulletins. Concluding remarks are provided regarding the performance of the experimental event-screening criteria, and plans for future

  8. Study of local seismic events in Lithuania and adjacent areas using data from the PASSEQ experiment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janutyte, I.; Kozlovskaya, E.; Motuza, G.; Plomerová, Jaroslava; Babuška, Vladislav; Gaždová, Renata; Jedlička, Petr; Kolínský, Petr; Málek, Jiří; Novotný, Oldřich; Růžek, Bohuslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 170, č. 5 (2013), s. 797-814 ISSN 0033-4553 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 ; RVO:67985891 Keywords : location of local seismic events * East European Craton * PASSEQ passive seismic experiment Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.854, year: 2013

  9. Broadband analysis of landslides seismic signal : example of the Oso-Steelhead landslide and other recent events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekstrom, G.

    2014-12-01

    Landslide failures on the scale of mountains are spectacular, dangerous, and spontaneous, making direct observations hard to obtain. Measurement of their dynamic properties during runout is a high research priority, but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has begun to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now allow: (i) the seismic detection and location of large landslides in near-real-time, even for events in very remote areas that may have remain undetected, such as the 2014 Mt La Perouse supraglacial failure in Alaska; (ii) inversion of long-period waves generated by large landslides to yield an estimate of the forces imparted by the bulk accelerating mass; (iii) inference of the landslide mass, its center-of-mass velocity over time, and its trajectory.Key questions persist, such as: What can the short-period seismic data tell us about the high-frequency impacts taking place within the granular flow and along its boundaries with the underlying bedrock? And how does this seismicity relate to the bulk acceleration of the landslide and the long-period seismicity generated by it?Our recent work on the joint analysis of short- and long-period seismic signals generated by past and recent events, such as the Bingham Canyon Mine and the Oso-Steelhead landslides, provides new insights to tackle these issues. Qualitative comparison between short-period signal features and kinematic parameters inferred from long-period surface wave inversion helps to refine interpretation of the source dynamics and to understand the different mechanisms for the origin of the short-period wave radiation. Our new results also suggest that quantitative relationships can be derived from this joint analysis, in particular between the short-period seismic signal envelope and the inferred momentum of the center-of-mass. In the future, these quantitative relationships may help to constrain and calibrate parameters used in

  10. The whole story: rumours and science communication in the aftermath of seismic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; Todesco, Micol; Camassi, Romano

    2016-04-01

    Controversies that stir the public debate on geological matters in Italy often pertain to two specific aspects: the actual trigger of geological phenomena (i.e., natural vs anthropogenic) and the trustworthiness of the experts who provide information and advise on the phenomena. A typical example of such difficulties is the case of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence, which struck an area of moderate seismic hazard. At the same time, geophysical prospecting was planned to assess the potential of a reservoir for gas storage, near the town of Rivara. The low frequency of important seismic events in the area, associated with the ongoing industrial planning prompted widespread rumours of an anthropogenic origin of the 2012 earthquake. Since then, public concern has been risen several time by the occurrence of anomalous surface phenomena (among which heating of well water). While these phenomena always occurred in the area, and were recently explained in terms of a shallow, exothermic oxidation of methane, popular belief tends to establish a causal link between anomalous temperature and seismic activity. The ambiguity in the definition of the size of seismic events may further hinder communication efforts: such size may be expressed in different ways, and may assume different values depending on the adopted computational technique and on the size and geometry of the available seismic network. As a result, different institutions may release different numbers to express the magnitude of the same earthquake, casting doubts on the reliability of the estimate. We'll present and discuss different activities that INGV (Sezione di Bologna) pursued through the years, in collaboration with various local and national institutions, to provide an effective dissemination of scientific information and to reinforce mutual trust between our research institute and the local population.

  11. A Suite of Discriminants for Ground-Truth Mining Events in the Western U.S. and Its Implications for Discrimination Capability in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    of up to 1000 individual boreholes is filled with 5000 to 10,000 lbs of material and delay fired over several seconds. The explosive array is...delay-fired mining events using seismic arrays : Application to the PDAR array in Wyoming, USA, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97: pp .989–1001. Arrowsmith...regional seismic stations in monitoring areas of interest, particularly in countries where mining efforts are significant to the economy. As with other

  12. Discrimination of panti p → tanti t events by a neural network classifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherubini, A.; Odorico, R.

    1992-01-01

    Neural network and conventional statistical techniques are compared in the problem of discriminating panti p→tanti t events, with top quarks decaying into anything, from the associated hadronic background at the energy of the Fermilab collider. The NN we develop for this sake is an improved version of Kohonen's learning vector quantization scheme. Performance of the NN as a tanti t event classifier is found to be less satisfactory than that achievable by statistical methods. We conclude that the probable reasons for that are: i) The NN approach presents advantages only when dealing with event distributions in the feature space which substantially differ from Gaussians; ii) NN's require much larger training sets of events than statistical discrimination in order to give comparable results. (orig.)

  13. Seismic waveform modeling of explosions at distances of 10-100 km

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, R.B.; Al-Eqabi, G.; Hutchensen, K.

    1993-01-01

    The classification of shallow seismic sources in terms of size and mechanism is not trivial when the sources are small in size and recorded at distances less than 1000 km. Current operational techniques serve to distinguish between spatially distributed industrial chemical explosions with inter-shot delays and point sources on the basis on spectral scalloping. Data sets used for algorithm validation are not robust enough to contain both shallow ( 2 km) crustal earthquakes, large point chemical explosions, as well as arealy distributed chemical explosions. Wave propagation theory may make up for these knowledge gaps. Perfect event discrimination is not presently possible. The suite of all recorded seismic events can be, and is being, culled on the basis of depth, spectral characteristics indicative of delayed shots and spectral ratios between different phases in different frequency bands, leaving a subset of events requiring further examination, if possible

  14. Source Inversion of Seismic Events Associated with the Sinkhole at Napoleonville Salt Dome, Louisiana using a 3D Velocity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Avinash; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2018-05-01

    The formation of a large sinkhole at the Napoleonville salt dome (NSD), Assumption Parish, Louisiana, caused by the collapse of a brine cavern, was accompanied by an intense and complex sequence of seismic events. We implement a grid-search approach to compute centroid locations and point-source moment tensor (MT) solutions of these seismic events using ˜0.1-0.3 Hz displacement waveforms and synthetic Green's functions computed using a 3D velocity model of the western edge of the NSD. The 3D model incorporates the currently known approximate geometry of the salt dome and the overlying anhydrite-gypsum cap rock, and features a large velocity contrast between the high velocity salt dome and low velocity sediments overlying and surrounding it. For each possible location on the source grid, Green's functions (GFs) to each station were computed using source-receiver reciprocity and the finite-difference seismic wave propagation software SW4. We also establish an empirical method to rigorously assess uncertainties in the centroid location, MW and source type of these events under evolving network geometry, using the results of synthetic tests with hypothetical events and real seismic noise. We apply the methods on the entire duration of data (˜6 months) recorded by the temporary US Geological Survey network. During an energetic phase of the sequence from 24-31 July 2012 when 4 stations were operational, the events with the best waveform fits are primarily located at the western edge of the salt dome at most probable depths of ˜0.3-0.85 km, close to the horizontal positions of the cavern and the future sinkhole. The data are fit nearly equally well by opening crack MTs in the high velocity salt medium or by isotropic volume-increase MTs in the low velocity sediment layers. We find that data recorded by 6 stations during 1-2 August 2012, right before the appearance of the sinkhole, indicate that some events are likely located in the lower velocity media just outside the

  15. Seismic safety in nuclear-waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpenter, D.W.; Towse, D.

    1979-01-01

    Seismic safety is one of the factors that must be considered in the disposal of nuclear waste in deep geologic media. This report reviews the data on damage to underground equipment and structures from earthquakes, the record of associated motions, and the conventional methods of seismic safety-analysis and engineering. Safety considerations may be divided into two classes: those during the operational life of a disposal facility, and those pertinent to the post-decommissioning life of the facility. Operational hazards may be mitigated by conventional construction practices and site selection criteria. Events that would materially affect the long-term integrity of a decommissioned facility appear to be highly unlikely and can be substantially avoided by conservative site selection and facility design. These events include substantial fault movement within the disposal facility and severe ground shaking in an earthquake epicentral region. Techniques need to be developed to address the question of long-term earthquake probability in relatively aseismic regions, and for discriminating between active and extinct faults in regions where earthquake activity does not result in surface ruptures

  16. Seismic safety in nuclear-waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carpenter, D.W.; Towse, D.

    1979-04-26

    Seismic safety is one of the factors that must be considered in the disposal of nuclear waste in deep geologic media. This report reviews the data on damage to underground equipment and structures from earthquakes, the record of associated motions, and the conventional methods of seismic safety-analysis and engineering. Safety considerations may be divided into two classes: those during the operational life of a disposal facility, and those pertinent to the post-decommissioning life of the facility. Operational hazards may be mitigated by conventional construction practices and site selection criteria. Events that would materially affect the long-term integrity of a decommissioned facility appear to be highly unlikely and can be substantially avoided by conservative site selection and facility design. These events include substantial fault movement within the disposal facility and severe ground shaking in an earthquake epicentral region. Techniques need to be developed to address the question of long-term earthquake probability in relatively aseismic regions, and for discriminating between active and extinct faults in regions where earthquake activity does not result in surface ruptures.

  17. Geomechanical Modeling of Fault Responses and the Potential for Notable Seismic Events during Underground CO2 Injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutqvist, J.; Cappa, F.; Mazzoldi, A.; Rinaldi, A.

    2012-12-01

    The importance of geomechanics associated with large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS) operations is now widely recognized. There are concerns related to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO2 repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). In this context, we review a number of modeling studies and field observations related to the potential for injection-induced fault reactivations and seismic events. We present recent model simulations of CO2 injection and fault reactivation, including both aseismic and seismic fault responses. The model simulations were conducted using a slip weakening fault model enabling sudden (seismic) fault rupture, and some of the numerical analyses were extended to fully dynamic modeling of seismic source, wave propagation, and ground motion. The model simulations illustrated what it will take to create a magnitude 3 or 4 earthquake that would not result in any significant damage at the groundsurface, but could raise concerns in the local community and could also affect the deep containment of the stored CO2. The analyses show that the local in situ stress field, fault orientation, fault strength, and injection induced overpressure are critical factors in determining the likelihood and magnitude of such an event. We like to clarify though that in our modeling we had to apply very high injection pressure to be able to intentionally induce any fault reactivation. Consequently, our model simulations represent extreme cases, which in a real GCS operation could be avoided by estimating maximum sustainable injection pressure and carefully controlling the injection pressure. In fact, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO2 storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. On the other hand, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants

  18. Monitoring of seismic events from a specific source region using a single regional array: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbons, S. J.; Kværna, T.; Ringdal, F.

    2005-07-01

    In the monitoring of earthquakes and nuclear explosions using a sparse worldwide network of seismic stations, it is frequently necessary to make reliable location estimates using a single seismic array. It is also desirable to screen out routine industrial explosions automatically in order that analyst resources are not wasted upon detections which can, with a high level of confidence, be associated with such a source. The Kovdor mine on the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia is the site of frequent industrial blasts which are well recorded by the ARCES regional seismic array at a distance of approximately 300 km. We describe here an automatic procedure for identifying signals which are likely to result from blasts at the Kovdor mine and, wherever possible, for obtaining single array locations for such events. Carefully calibrated processing parameters were chosen using measurements from confirmed events at the mine over a one-year period for which the operators supplied Ground Truth information. Phase arrival times are estimated using an autoregressive method and slowness and azimuth are estimated using broadband f{-} k analysis in fixed frequency bands and time-windows fixed relative to the initial P-onset time. We demonstrate the improvement to slowness estimates resulting from the use of fixed frequency bands. Events can be located using a single array if, in addition to the P-phase, at least one secondary phase is found with both an acceptable slowness estimate and valid onset-time estimate. We evaluate the on-line system over a twelve month period; every event known to have occured at the mine is detected by the process and 32 out of 53 confirmed events were located automatically. The remaining events were classified as “very likely” Kovdor events and were subsequently located by an analyst. The false alarm rate is low; only 84 very likely Kovdor events were identified during the whole of 2003 and none of these were subsequently located at a large distance from

  19. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  20. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  1. Locating seismicity on the Arctic plate boundary using multiple-event techniques and empirical signal processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbons, S. J.; Harris, D. B.; Dahl-Jensen, T.; Kværna, T.; Larsen, T. B.; Paulsen, B.; Voss, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    The oceanic boundary separating the Eurasian and North American plates between 70° and 84° north hosts large earthquakes which are well recorded teleseismically, and many more seismic events at far lower magnitudes that are well recorded only at regional distances. Existing seismic bulletins have considerable spread and bias resulting from limited station coverage and deficiencies in the velocity models applied. This is particularly acute for the lower magnitude events which may only be constrained by a small number of Pn and Sn arrivals. Over the past two decades there has been a significant improvement in the seismic network in the Arctic: a difficult region to instrument due to the harsh climate, a sparsity of accessible sites (particularly at significant distances from the sea), and the expense and difficult logistics of deploying and maintaining stations. New deployments and upgrades to stations on Greenland, Svalbard, Jan Mayen, Hopen, and Bjørnøya have resulted in a sparse but stable regional seismic network which results in events down to magnitudes below 3 generating high-quality Pn and Sn signals on multiple stations. A catalogue of several hundred events in the region since 1998 has been generated using many new phase readings on stations on both sides of the spreading ridge in addition to teleseismic P phases. A Bayesian multiple event relocation has resulted in a significant reduction in the spread of hypocentre estimates for both large and small events. Whereas single event location algorithms minimize vectors of time residuals on an event-by-event basis, the Bayesloc program finds a joint probability distribution of origins, hypocentres, and corrections to traveltime predictions for large numbers of events. The solutions obtained favour those event hypotheses resulting in time residuals which are most consistent over a given source region. The relocations have been performed with different 1-D velocity models applicable to the Arctic region and

  2. Data processing of natural and induced events recorded at the seismic station Ostrava-Kr¨¢sn¨¦ Pole (OKC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nov¨¢k Josef

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The operation of the seismic station Ostrava-Kr¨¢sn¨¦ Pole (OKC (¦Õ = 49.8352¡ãN; ¦Ë = 18.1422¡ãE which is situated at present in an experimental gallery nearby the Ostrava planetarium started in the year 1983 being equiped initially by analogue instrumentation. Modernization of instrumentation at the station was aimed at the installation of a new digital data acquisition system and the respective software packages for data interpretation and transmission.Data acquisition system VISTEC is based on PC which enables continuous recording of three- component short-period and medium-period systems with the sampling frequency of 20 Hz. The basic advantage of the OS Linux adopted allows remote access (telnet and the possibility of the recorded data transmission (ftp. Possible troubles in the seismic station operation can be quickly detected (even automatically and all recorded data are with minimum delay on disposal. The use of the remote access makes possible also to change the parameters of measuring set-up. The standard form of output data allows the application of standard software packages for visualisation and evaluation. There are on disposal following formates: GSE2/CM6, GSE2/INT and MiniSEED. The output data sets can be compressed by a special procedure. For interactive interpretation od digital seismic data, software package EVENT developed in the Geophysical Institute AS CR and package WAVE developed in the Institute of Geonics AS CR are used.Experimental operation of digital seismographs at the station OKC confirmed justification of its incorporation into the seismic stations of the Czech national seismological network (CNSN. Based on the preliminary analysis of digital data it proved that following groups of seismic events are recorded: earthquakes, induced seismic events from Polish copper and coal mines, induced seismic events from the Ostrava-Karvin¨¢ Coal Basin, quarry blasts and weak regional seismic events of the

  3. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

  4. Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

  5. Observation of rotational component in digital data of mining induced seismic events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaláb, Zdeněk; Knejzlík, Jaromír; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-85 ISSN 1896-3145. [Ochrona środowiska w górnictwie podziemnym, odkrywkowym i otworowym. Wieliczka - Zakrzow, 16.05.2012-18.05.2012] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : rotational component * mining induced seismic event * field measurement Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  6. Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, J.; Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

    2003-01-01

    We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Popova

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Very-low-frequency/ low-frequency (VLF/LF sub-ionospheric radiowave monitoring has been widely used in recent years to analyze earthquake preparatory processes. The connection between earthquakes with M ≥5.5 and nighttime disturbances of signal amplitude and phase has been established. Thus, it is possible to use nighttime anomalies of VLF/LF signals as earthquake precursors. Here, we propose a method for estimation of the VLF/LF signal sensitivity to seismic processes using a neural network approach. We apply the error back-propagation technique based on a three-level perceptron to predict a seismic event. The back-propagation technique involves two main stages to solve the problem; namely, network training, and recognition (the prediction itself. To train a neural network, we first create a so-called ‘training set’. The ‘teacher’ specifies the correspondence between the chosen input and the output data. In the present case, a representative database includes both the LF data received over three years of monitoring at the station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (2005-2007, and the seismicity parameters of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions. At the first stage, the neural network established the relationship between the characteristic features of the LF signal (the mean and dispersion of a phase and an amplitude at nighttime for a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of correlation with a seismic event, or the absence of a seismic event. For the second stage, the trained neural network was applied to predict seismic events from the LF data using twelve time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The results of the prediction are discussed.

  8. Dimensional Representation and Gradient Boosting for Seismic Event Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmelmayer, F. C.; Kappedal, R. D.; Magana-Zook, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    In this research, we conducted experiments of representational structures on 5009 seismic signals with the intent of finding a method to classify signals as either an explosion or an earthquake in an automated fashion. We also applied a gradient boosted classifier. While perfect classification was not attained (approximately 88% was our best model), some cases demonstrate that many events can be filtered out as very high probability being explosions or earthquakes, diminishing subject-matter experts'(SME) workload for first stage analysis. It is our hope that these methods can be refined, further increasing the classification probability.

  9. Risks posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks. It is recommended that an earthquake engineer inspect the building stock and review the content and enforcement of building codes. Appropriate training...

  10. Regional seismic observations of the Non-Proliferation Experiment at the Livermore NTS Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, W.R.; Mayeda, K.; Patton, H.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others

    1994-12-31

    The Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE), a 1-kiloton chemical explosion in N-tunnel at Rainier Mesa on the Nevada Test Site (NTS), was recorded by the four station, regional seismic Livermore NTS Network, (LNN). In this study we compare the NPE`s seismic yield, frequency content, and discrimination performance with other NTS events recorded at LNN. Preliminary findings include: The NPE LNN average magnitudes are 4.16 for m{sub b}(P{sub n}) and 4.59 for m{sub b}(L{sub g}). Using published magnitude-yield relations gives nuclear equivalent yields of 2.3 and 2.2 kilotons respectively, implying enhanced coupling of chemical relative to nuclear explosions. A comparison of the NPE seismograms with those with similar magnitude N-tunnel nuclear explosions shows remarkable similarity over the frequency band 0.5 to 5.0 Hz. Outside this band the explosions show more variability, with the NPE having the least relative energy below 0.5 Hz and the most energy above 5 Hz when scaled by magnitude. Considering the variability within the N-tunnel nuclear explosions, these low- and high-frequency NPE-nuclear differences may not reflect chemical-nuclear source differences. The NPE was compared to a large number of NTS nuclear explosions and earthquakes as part of an ongoing short-period discrimination study of P{sub N}/L{sub g},P{sub g}/L{sub g}, and spectral ratios in the P{sub n}, P{sub g},L{sub g}, and coda phases. For these discriminants, the NPE looks very similar to N-tunnel nuclear explosions and other NTS nuclear explosions, implying seismic identification of contained, non-ripple-fired, chemical explosions as non-nuclear may not be possible. However, such blasts might serve as surrogate nuclear explosions when calibrating seismic discriminants in regions where nuclear testing has not occurred.

  11. Burar seismic station: evaluation of seismic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela

    2005-01-01

    A new seismic monitoring system, the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR), has been established since July 2002, in the Northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP), Romania. The small-aperture array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 vertical short-period and one three-component broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km 2 area. At present, the seismic data are continuously recorded by the BURAR and transmitted in real-time to the Romanian National Data Center in Bucharest and National Data Center of the USA, in Florida. Based on the BURAR seismic information gathered at the National Data Center, NIEP (ROM N DC), in the August 2002 - December 2004 time interval, analysis and statistical assessments were performed. Following the preliminary processing of the data, several observations on the global performance of the BURAR system were emphasized. Data investigation showed an excellent efficiency of the BURAR system particularly in detecting teleseismic and regional events. Also, a statistical analysis for the BURAR detection capability of the local Vrancea events was performed in terms of depth and magnitude for the year 2004. The high signal detection capability of the BURAR resulted, generally, in improving the location solutions for the Vrancea seismic events. The location solution accuracy is enhanced when adding BURAR recordings, especially in the case of low magnitude events (recorded by few stations). The location accuracy is increased, both in terms of constraining hypocenter depth and epicentral coordinates. Our analysis certifies the importance of the BURAR system in NIEP efforts to elaborate seismic bulletins. Furthermore, the specific procedures for array data processing (beam forming, f-k analysis) increase significantly the signal-to-noise ratio by summing up the coherent signals from the array components, and ensure a better accuracy

  12. Mine seismicity and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiappetta, F. [Blasting Analysis International, Allentown, PA (United States); Heuze, F.; Walter, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hopler, R. [Powderman Consulting Inc., Oxford, MD (United States); Hsu, V. [Air Force Technical Applications Center, Patrick AFB, FL (United States); Martin, B. [Thunder Basin Coal Co., Wright, WY (United States); Pearson, C. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Stump, B. [Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX (United States); Zipf, K. [Univ. of New South Wales (Australia)

    1998-12-09

    Surface and underground mining operations generate seismic ground motions which are created by chemical explosions and ground failures. It may come as a surprise to some that the ground failures (coal bumps, first caves, pillar collapses, rockbursts, etc.) can send signals whose magnitudes are as strong or stronger than those from any mining blast. A verification system that includes seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic and radionuclide sensors is being completed as part of the CTBT. The largest mine blasts and ground failures will be detected by this system and must be identified as distinct from signals generated by small nuclear explosions. Seismologists will analyze the seismic records and presumably should be able to separate them into earthquake-like and non earthquake-like categories, using a variety of so-called seismic discriminants. Non-earthquake essentially means explosion- or implosion-like. Such signals can be generated not only by mine blasts but also by a variety of ground failures. Because it is known that single-fired chemical explosions and nuclear explosion signals of the same yield give very similar seismic records, the non-earthquake signals will be of concern to the Treaty verification community. The magnitude of the mine-related events is in the range of seismicity created by smaller nuclear explosions or decoupled tests, which are of particular concern under the Treaty. It is conceivable that legitimate mining blasts or some mine-induced ground failures could occasionally be questioned. Information such as shot time, location and design parameters may be all that is necessary to resolve the event identity. In rare instances where the legitimate origin of the event could not be resolved by a consultation and clarification procedure, it might trigger on On-Site Inspection (OSI). Because there is uncertainty in the precise location of seismic event as determined by the International Monitoring System (IMS), the OSI can cover an area of up to 1

  13. Influence of Tidal Forces on the Triggering of Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Péter; Grafarend, Erik

    2018-05-01

    Tidal stresses are generated in any three-dimensional body influenced by an external inhomogeneous gravity field of rotating planets or moons. In this paper, as a special case, stresses caused within the solid Earth by the body tides are discussed from viewpoint of their influence on seismic activity. The earthquake triggering effects of the Moon and Sun are usually investigated by statistical comparison of tidal variations and temporal distribution of earthquake activity, or with the use of mathematical or experimental modelling of physical processes in earthquake prone structures. In this study, the magnitude of the lunisolar stress tensor in terms of its components along the latitude of the spherical surface of the Earth as well as inside the Earth (up to the core-mantle boundary) were calculated for the PREM (Dziewonski and Anderson in Phys Earth Planet Inter 25(4):297-356, 1981). Results of calculations prove that stress increases as a function of depth reaching a value around some kPa at the depth of 900-1500 km, well below the zone of deep earthquakes. At the depth of the overwhelming part of seismic energy accumulation (around 50 km) the stresses of lunisolar origin are only (0.0-1.0)·103 Pa. Despite the fact that these values are much smaller than the earthquake stress drops (1-30 MPa) (Kanamori in Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 22:207-237, 1994) this does not exclude the possibility of an impact of tidal forces on outbreak of seismic events. Since the tidal potential and its derivatives are coordinate dependent and the zonal, tesseral and sectorial tides have different distributions from the surface down to the CMB, the lunisolar stress cannot influence the break-out of every seismological event in the same degree. The influencing lunisolar effect of the solid earth tides on earthquake occurrences is connected first of all with stress components acting parallel to the surface of the Earth. The influence of load tides is limited to the loaded area and its

  14. Relationship between eruption plume heights and seismic source amplitudes of eruption tremors and explosion events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, A.; Kumagai, H.

    2016-12-01

    It is crucial to analyze and interpret eruption tremors and explosion events for estimating eruption size and understanding eruption phenomena. Kumagai et al. (EPS, 2015) estimated the seismic source amplitudes (As) and cumulative source amplitudes (Is) for eruption tremors and explosion events at Tungurahua, Ecuador, by the amplitude source location (ASL) method based on the assumption of isotropic S-wave radiation in a high-frequency band (5-10 Hz). They found scaling relations between As and Is for eruption tremors and explosion events. However, the universality of these relations is yet to be verified, and the physical meanings of As and Is are not clear. In this study, we analyzed the relations between As and Is for eruption tremors and explosion events at active volcanoes in Japan, and estimated As and Is by the ASL method. We obtained power-law relations between As and Is, in which the powers were different between eruption tremors and explosion events. These relations were consistent with the scaling relations at Tungurahua volcano. Then, we compared As with maximum eruption plume heights (H) during eruption tremors analyzed in this study, and found that H was proportional to 0.21 power of As. This relation is similar to the plume height model based on the physical process of plume rise, which indicates that H is proportional to 0.25 power of volumetric flow rate for plinian eruptions. This suggests that As may correspond to volumetric flow rate. If we assume a seismic source with volume changes and far-field S-wave, As is proportional to the source volume rate. This proportional relation and the plume height model give rise to the relation that H is proportional to 0.25 power of As. These results suggest that we may be able to estimate plume heights in realtime by estimating As during eruptions from seismic observations.

  15. Estimating the response times of human operators working in the main control room of nuclear power plants based on the context of a seismic event – A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Yochan; Kim, Jung Han; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Response times under seismic events are necessary for human reliability analysis. • Conceptual framework to estimate response times under a seismic event is suggested. • Four kinds of representative contexts in seismic events are considered. • Rules for estimating response times on the representative contexts are extracted. - Abstract: After the Fukushima accident, a couple of novel issues have raised in terms of the safety assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This means that the performance of human operators should be properly evaluated under an extreme event. However, it is unrealistic to collect a sufficient amount of human performance data from a real event, such as a great earthquake. As one of the promising solutions, a conceptual framework is suggested in this paper, which is helpful for estimating the response time data of human operators working in the main control room of NPPs under a seismic event. To this end, the four kinds of representative contexts that could be anticipated from seismic events are identified. Then the response times of human operators who are faced with similar contexts are reviewed from existing literatures and databases. As a result, a couple of rules that allow us to extrapolate the response times of human operators under seismic events are extracted. Although underlying rationales being used for determining these rules are still arguable, it is expected that response times under seismic events could be properly understood along with accumulating those of human operators against non-seismic conditions

  16. Event-related potentials for gender discrimination: an examination between differences in gender discrimination between males and females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suyama, Natsuka; Hoshiyama, Minoru; Shimizu, Hideki; Saito, Hirofumi

    2008-09-01

    The event-related potentials (ERP) following presentation of male and female faces were investigated to study differences in the gender discrimination process. Visual stimuli from four categories including male and female faces were presented. For the male subjects, the P220 amplitude of the T5 area following viewing of a female face was significantly larger than that following viewing of a male face. On the other hand for female subjects, the P170 amplitude of the Cz area following observation of a male face was larger than that for a female face. The results indicate that the neural processes, including responsive brain areas used for gender discrimination by observing faces, are different between males and females.

  17. Aftershock Sequences and Seismic-Like Organization of Acoustic Events Produced by a Single Propagating Crack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizee, D.; Bonamy, D.

    2017-12-01

    In inhomogeneous brittle solids like rocks, concrete or ceramics, one usually distinguish nominally brittle fracture, driven by the propagation of a single crack from quasibrittle one, resulting from the accumulation of many microcracks. The latter goes along with intermittent sharp noise, as e.g. revealed by the acoustic emission observed in lab scale compressive fracture experiments or at geophysical scale in the seismic activity. In both cases, statistical analyses have revealed a complex time-energy organization into aftershock sequences obeying a range of robust empirical scaling laws (the Omori-Utsu, productivity and Bath's law) that help carry out seismic hazard analysis and damage mitigation. These laws are usually conjectured to emerge from the collective dynamics of microcrack nucleation. In the experiments presented at AGU, we will show that such a statistical organization is not specific to the quasi-brittle multicracking situations, but also rules the acoustic events produced by a single crack slowly driven in an artificial rock made of sintered polymer beads. This simpler situation has advantageous properties (statistical stationarity in particular) permitting us to uncover the origins of these seismic laws: Both productivity law and Bath's law result from the scale free statistics for event energy and Omori-Utsu law results from the scale-free statistics of inter-event time. This yields predictions on how the associated parameters are related, which were analytically derived. Surprisingly, the so-obtained relations are also compatible with observations on lab scale compressive fracture experiments, suggesting that, in these complex multicracking situations also, the organization into aftershock sequences and associated seismic laws are also ruled by the propagation of individual microcrack fronts, and not by the collective, stress-mediated, microcrack nucleation. Conversely, the relations are not fulfilled in seismology signals, suggesting that

  18. Could ionospheric variations be precursors of a seismic event? A short discussion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kouris, S.S. [Thessaloniki Univ., Thessaloniki (Greece). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Spalla, P. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca Onde Elettromagnetiche, Florence (Italy); Zolesi, B. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-04-01

    A short review of published papers on the perturbations in the ionosphere due to seismogenic effects is reported. The method to correlate different classes of phenomena as ionospheric variations and subsequent seismic events is discussed. Even if the theoretical attempts to understand or to explain the electromagnetic phenomena in the ionosphere, as precursors of earthquakes are not satisfactory, the reported results encourage further investigations.

  19. Martian seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goins, N.R.; Lazarewicz, A.R.

    1979-01-01

    During the Viking mission to Mars, the seismometer on Lander II collected approximately 0.24 Earth years of observations data, excluding periods of time dominated by wind-induced Lander vibration. The ''quiet-time'' data set contains no confirmed seismic events. A proper assessment of the significance of this fact requires quantitative estimates of the expected detection rate of the Viking seismometer. The first step is to calculate the minimum magnitude event detectable at a given distance, including the effects of geometric spreading, anelastic attenuation, seismic signal duration, seismometer frequency response, and possible poor ground coupling. Assuming various numerical quantities and a Martian seismic activity comparable to that of intraplate earthquakes, the appropriate integral gives an expected annual detection rate of 10 events, nearly all of which are local. Thus only two to three events would be expected in the observational period presently on hand and the lack of observed events is not in gross contradiction to reasonable expectations. Given the same assumptions, a seismometer 20 times more sensitive than the present instrument would be expected to detect about 120 events annually

  20. Fluid injection and induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Michael; Verdon, James

    2016-04-01

    The link between fluid injection, or extraction, and induced seismicity has been observed in reservoirs for many decades. In fact spatial mapping of low magnitude events is routinely used to estimate a stimulated reservoir volume. However, the link between subsurface fluid injection and larger felt seismicity is less clear and has attracted recent interest with a dramatic increase in earthquakes associated with the disposal of oilfield waste fluids. In a few cases, hydraulic fracturing has also been linked to induced seismicity. Much can be learned from past case-studies of induced seismicity so that we can better understand the risks posed. Here we examine 12 case examples and consider in particular controls on maximum event size, lateral event distributions, and event depths. Our results suggest that injection volume is a better control on maximum magnitude than past, natural seismicity in a region. This might, however, simply reflect the lack of baseline monitoring and/or long-term seismic records in certain regions. To address this in the UK, the British Geological Survey is leading the deployment of monitoring arrays in prospective shale gas areas in Lancashire and Yorkshire. In most cases, seismicity is generally located in close vicinity to the injection site. However, in some cases, the nearest events are up to 5km from the injection point. This gives an indication of the minimum radius of influence of such fluid injection projects. The most distant events are never more than 20km from the injection point, perhaps implying a maximum radius of influence. Some events are located in the target reservoir, but most occur below the injection depth. In fact, most events lie in the crystalline basement underlying the sedimentary rocks. This suggests that induced seismicity may not pose a leakage risk for fluid migration back to the surface, as it does not impact caprock integrity. A useful application for microseismic data is to try and forecast induced seismicity

  1. Mine-induced seismicity at East-Rand proprietary mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milev, AM

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Mining results in seismic activity of varying intensity, from small micro seismic events to larger seismic events, often associated with significant seismic induced damages. This work deals with the understanding of the present seismicity...

  2. The risks to miners, mines, and the public posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available are incorporating the risks of seismicity in their disaster management plans, and Johannesburg is urged to do likewise. Some buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks....

  3. 6C polarization analysis - seismic direction finding in coherent noise, automated event identification, and wavefield separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmelzbach, C.; Sollberger, D.; Greenhalgh, S.; Van Renterghem, C.; Robertsson, J. O. A.

    2017-12-01

    Polarization analysis of standard three-component (3C) seismic data is an established tool to determine the propagation directions of seismic waves recorded by a single station. A major limitation of seismic direction finding methods using 3C recordings, however, is that a correct propagation-direction determination is only possible if the wave mode is known. Furthermore, 3C polarization analysis techniques break down in the presence of coherent noise (i.e., when more than one event is present in the analysis time window). Recent advances in sensor technology (e.g., fibre-optical, magnetohydrodynamic angular rate sensors, and ring laser gyroscopes) have made it possible to accurately measure all three components of rotational ground motion exhibited by seismic waves, in addition to the conventionally recorded three components of translational motion. Here, we present an extension of the theory of single station 3C polarization analysis to six-component (6C) recordings of collocated translational and rotational ground motions. We demonstrate that the information contained in rotation measurements can help to overcome some of the main limitations of standard 3C seismic direction finding, such as handling multiple arrivals simultaneously. We show that the 6C polarisation of elastic waves measured at the Earth's free surface does not only depend on the seismic wave type and propagation direction, but also on the local P- and S-wave velocities just beneath the recording station. Using an adaptation of the multiple signal classification algorithm (MUSIC), we demonstrate how seismic events can univocally be identified and characterized in terms of their wave type. Furthermore, we show how the local velocities can be inferred from single-station 6C data, in addition to the direction angles (inclination and azimuth) of seismic arrivals. A major benefit of our proposed 6C method is that it also allows the accurate recovery of the wave type, propagation directions, and phase

  4. Leveraging Long-term Seismic Catalogs for Automated Real-time Event Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linville, L.; Draelos, T.; Pankow, K. L.; Young, C. J.; Alvarez, S.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate the use of labeled event types available through reviewed seismic catalogs to produce automated event labels on new incoming data from the crustal region spanned by the cataloged events. Using events cataloged by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations between October, 2012 and June, 2017, we calculate the spectrogram for a time window that spans the duration of each event as seen on individual stations, resulting in 110k event spectrograms (50% local earthquakes examples, 50% quarry blasts examples). Using 80% of the randomized example events ( 90k), a classifier is trained to distinguish between local earthquakes and quarry blasts. We explore variations of deep learning classifiers, incorporating elements of convolutional and recurrent neural networks. Using a single-layer Long Short Term Memory recurrent neural network, we achieve 92% accuracy on the classification task on the remaining 20K test examples. Leveraging the decisions from a group of stations that detected the same event by using the median of all classifications in the group increases the model accuracy to 96%. Additional data with equivalent processing from 500 more recently cataloged events (July, 2017), achieves the same accuracy as our test data on both single-station examples and multi-station medians, suggesting that the model can maintain accurate and stable classification rates on real-time automated events local to the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, with potentially minimal levels of re-training through time.

  5. Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

    2011-09-15

    The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

  6. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  7. Demonstration of NonLinear Seismic Soil Structure Interaction and Applicability to New System Fragility Seismic Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Nuclear Science and Technology

    2014-09-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRAs are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (the frequency of certain magnitude events) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and systems analysis. Figure 1 provides a high level overview of the risk quantification process. The focus of this research is on understanding and removing conservatism (when possible) in the quantification of seismic risk at NPPs.

  8. Polarisation-based coincidence event discrimination: an in silico study towards a feasible scheme for Compton-PET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toghyani, M.; Gillam, J. E.; McNamara, A. L.; Kuncic, Z.

    2016-08-01

    Current positron emission tomography (PET) systems use temporally localised coincidence events discriminated by energy and time-of-flight information. The two annihilation photons are in an entangled polarisation state and, in principle, additional information from the polarisation correlation of photon pairs could be used to improve the accuracy of coincidence classification. In a previous study, we demonstrated that in principle, the polarisation correlation information could be transferred to an angular correlation in the distribution of scattered photon pairs in a planar Compton camera system. In the present study, we model a source-phantom-detector system using Geant4 and we develop a coincidence classification scheme that exploits the angular correlation of scattered annihilation quanta to improve the accuracy of coincidence detection. We find a 22% image quality improvement in terms of the peak signal-to-noise ratio when scattered coincidence events are discriminated solely by their angular correlation, thus demonstrating the feasibility of this novel classification scheme. By integrating scatter events (both single-single and single-only) with unscattered coincidence events discriminated using conventional methods, our results suggest that Compton-PET may be a promising candidate for optimal emission tomographic imaging.

  9. Preliminary report on LLNL mine seismicity deployment at the Twentymile Coal Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, W.R.; Hunter, S.L.; Glenn, L.A.

    1996-01-01

    This report summarizes the preliminary results of a just completed experiment at the Twentymile Coal Mine, operated by the Cyprus Amax Coal Company near Oak Creek, CO. The purpose of the experiment was to obtain local and regional seismic data from roof caves associated with long-wall mining activities and to use this data to help determine the effectiveness with which these events can be discriminated from underground nuclear explosions under a future Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

  10. Methodology for seismic PSA of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jirsa, P.

    1999-09-01

    A general methodology is outlined for seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The main objectives of seismic PSA include: description of the course of an event; understanding the most probable failure sequences; gaining insight into the overall probability of reactor core damage; identification of the main seismic risk contributors; identification of the range of peak ground accelerations contributing significantly to the plant risk; and comparison of the seismic risk with risks from other events. The results of seismic PSA are typically compared with those of internal PSA and of PSA of other external events. If the results of internal and external PSA are available, sensitivity studies and cost benefit analyses are performed prior to any decision regarding corrective actions. If the seismic PSA involves analysis of the containment, useful information can be gained regarding potential seismic damage of the containment. (P.A.)

  11. Modern Adaptive Analytics Approach to Lowering Seismic Network Detection Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Modern seismic networks present a number of challenges, but perhaps most notably are those related to 1) extreme variation in station density, 2) temporal variation in station availability, and 3) the need to achieve detectability for much smaller events of strategic importance. The first of these has been reasonably addressed in the development of modern seismic associators, such as GLASS 3.0 by the USGS/NEIC, though some work still remains to be done in this area. However, the latter two challenges demand special attention. Station availability is impacted by weather, equipment failure or the adding or removing of stations, and while thresholds have been pushed to increasingly smaller magnitudes, new algorithms are needed to achieve even lower thresholds. Station availability can be addressed by a modern, adaptive architecture that maintains specified performance envelopes using adaptive analytics coupled with complexity theory. Finally, detection thresholds can be lowered using a novel approach that tightly couples waveform analytics with the event detection and association processes based on a principled repicking algorithm that uses particle realignment for enhanced phase discrimination.

  12. Permanent downhole seismic sensors in flowing wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaques, P.; Ong, H.; Jupe, A.; Brown, I.; Jansenns, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is generally accepted that the 'Oilfield of the Future' will incorporate distributed permanent downhole seismic sensors in flowing wells. However the effectiveness of these sensors will be limited by the extent to which seismic signals can be discriminated, or de-coupled, from flow induced

  13. Shallow degassing events as a trigger for very-long-period seismicity at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Matthew; Wilson, David; Fee, David; Orr, Tim R.; Swanson, Donald A.

    2011-01-01

    The first eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano’s summit in 25 years began in March 2008 with the opening of a 35-m-wide vent in Halema‘uma‘u crater. The new activity has produced prominent very-long-period (VLP) signals corresponding with two new behaviors: episodic tremor bursts and small explosive events, both of which represent degassing events from the top of the lava column. Previous work has shown that VLP seismicity has long been present at Kīlauea’s summit, and is sourced approximately 1 km below Halema‘uma‘u. By integrating video observations, infrasound and seismic data, we show that the onset of the large VLP signals occurs within several seconds of the onset of the degassing events. This timing indicates that the VLP is caused by forces—sourced at or very near the lava free surface due to degassing—transmitted down the magma column and coupling to the surrounding rock at 1 km depth.

  14. Evaluation of Multi Canister Overpack (MCO) Handling Machine Uplift Restraint for a Seismic Event During Repositioning Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SWENSON, C.E.

    2000-01-01

    Insertion of the Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) assemblies into the Canister Storage Building (CSB) storage tubes involves the use of the MCO Handling Machine (MHM). During MCO storage tube insertion operations, inadvertent movement of the MHM is prevented by engaging seismic restraints (''active restraints'') located adjacent to both the bridge and trolley wheels. During MHM repositioning operations, the active restraints are not engaged. When the active seismic restraints are not engaged, the only functioning seismic restraints are non-engageable (''passive'') wheel uplift restraints which function only if the wheel uplift is sufficient to close the nominal 0.5-inch gap at the uplift restraint interface. The MHM was designed and analyzed in accordance with ASME NOG-1-1995. The ALSTHOM seismic analysis reported seismic loads on the MHM uplift restraints and EDERER performed corresponding structural calculations to demonstrate structural adequacy of the seismic uplift restraint hardware. The ALSTHOM and EDERER calculations were performed for a parked MHM with the active seismic restraints engaged, resulting in uplift restraint loading only in the vertical direction. In support of development of the CSB Safety Analysis Report (SAR), an evaluation of the MHM seismic response was requested for the case where the active seismic restraints are not engaged. If a seismic event occurs during MHM repositioning operations, a moving contact at a seismic uplift restraint would introduce a friction load on the restraint in the direction of the movement. These potential horizontal friction loads on the uplift restraints were not included in the existing restraint hardware design calculations. One of the purposes of the current evaluation is to address the structural adequacy of the MHM seismic uplift restraints with the addition of the horizontal friction associated with MHM repositioning movements

  15. Understanding Laterally Varying Path Effects on P/S Ratios and their Effectiveness for Event Discrimination at Local Distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, M. L.; Walter, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    Discrimination between underground explosions and naturally occurring earthquakes is an important endeavor for global security and test-ban treaty monitoring, and ratios of seismic P to S-wave amplitudes at regional distances have proven to be an effective discriminant. The use of the P/S ratio is rooted in the idea that explosive sources should theoretically only generate compressional energy. While, in practice, shear energy is observed from explosions, generally when corrections are made for magnitude and distance, P/S ratios from explosions are higher than those from surrounding earthquakes. At local distances (chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) designed to improve our understanding and modeling capabilities of shear waves generated by explosions. Phase I consisted of 5 explosions in granite and Phase II will move to a contrasting dry alluvium geology. We apply a high-resolution 2D attenuation model to events near the NNSS to examine what effect path plays in local P/S ratios, and how well an earthquake-derived model can account for shallower explosion paths. The model incorporates both intrinsic attenuation and scattering effects and extends to 16 Hz, allowing us to make lateral path corrections and consider high-frequency ratios. Preliminary work suggests that while 2D path corrections modestly improve earthquake amplitude predictions, explosion amplitudes are not well matched, and so P/S ratios do not necessarily improve. Further work is needed to better understand the uses and limitation of 2D path corrections for local P/S ratios.

  16. Real-time classification of signals from three-component seismic sensors using neural nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, B. C.; Dowla, F.

    1992-05-01

    Adaptive seismic data acquisition systems with capabilities of signal discrimination and event classification are important in treaty monitoring, proliferation, and earthquake early detection systems. Potential applications include monitoring underground chemical explosions, as well as other military, cultural, and natural activities where characteristics of signals change rapidly and without warning. In these applications, the ability to detect and interpret events rapidly without falling behind the influx of the data is critical. We developed a system for real-time data acquisition, analysis, learning, and classification of recorded events employing some of the latest technology in computer hardware, software, and artificial neural networks methods. The system is able to train dynamically, and updates its knowledge based on new data. The software is modular and hardware-independent; i.e., the front-end instrumentation is transparent to the analysis system. The software is designed to take advantage of the multiprocessing environment of the Unix operating system. The Unix System V shared memory and static RAM protocols for data access and the semaphore mechanism for interprocess communications were used. As the three-component sensor detects a seismic signal, it is displayed graphically on a color monitor using X11/Xlib graphics with interactive screening capabilities. For interesting events, the triaxial signal polarization is computed, a fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is applied, and the normalized power spectrum is transmitted to a backpropagation neural network for event classification. The system is currently capable of handling three data channels with a sampling rate of 500 Hz, which covers the bandwidth of most seismic events. The system has been tested in laboratory setting with artificial events generated in the vicinity of a three-component sensor.

  17. Seismic Search Engine: A distributed database for mining large scale seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Vaidya, S.; Kuzma, H. A.

    2009-12-01

    The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBTO collects terabytes worth of seismic measurements from many receiver stations situated around the earth with the goal of detecting underground nuclear testing events and distinguishing them from other benign, but more common events such as earthquakes and mine blasts. The International Data Center (IDC) processes and analyzes these measurements, as they are collected by the IMS, to summarize event detections in daily bulletins. Thereafter, the data measurements are archived into a large format database. Our proposed Seismic Search Engine (SSE) will facilitate a framework for data exploration of the seismic database as well as the development of seismic data mining algorithms. Analogous to GenBank, the annotated genetic sequence database maintained by NIH, through SSE, we intend to provide public access to seismic data and a set of processing and analysis tools, along with community-generated annotations and statistical models to help interpret the data. SSE will implement queries as user-defined functions composed from standard tools and models. Each query is compiled and executed over the database internally before reporting results back to the user. Since queries are expressed with standard tools and models, users can easily reproduce published results within this framework for peer-review and making metric comparisons. As an illustration, an example query is “what are the best receiver stations in East Asia for detecting events in the Middle East?” Evaluating this query involves listing all receiver stations in East Asia, characterizing known seismic events in that region, and constructing a profile for each receiver station to determine how effective its measurements are at predicting each event. The results of this query can be used to help prioritize how data is collected, identify defective instruments, and guide future sensor placements.

  18. Using discriminant analysis as a nucleation event classification method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mikkonen

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available More than three years of measurements of aerosol size-distribution and different gas and meteorological parameters made in Po Valley, Italy were analysed for this study to examine which of the meteorological and trace gas variables effect on the emergence of nucleation events. As the analysis method, we used discriminant analysis with non-parametric Epanechnikov kernel, included in non-parametric density estimation method. The best classification result in our data was reached with the combination of relative humidity, ozone concentration and a third degree polynomial of radiation. RH appeared to have a preventing effect on the new particle formation whereas the effects of O3 and radiation were more conductive. The concentration of SO2 and NO2 also appeared to have significant effect on the emergence of nucleation events but because of the great amount of missing observations, we had to exclude them from the final analysis.

  19. Pitch Discrimination without Awareness in Congenital Amusia: Evidence from Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Patricia; Jolicoeur, Pierre; Peretz, Isabelle

    2013-01-01

    Congenital amusia is a lifelong disorder characterized by a difficulty in perceiving and producing music despite normal intelligence and hearing. Behavioral data have indicated that it originates from a deficit in fine-grained pitch discrimination, and is expressed by the absence of a P3b event-related brain response for pitch differences smaller…

  20. A Study of Small Magnitude Seismic Events During 1961-1989 on and near the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalturin, V. I.; Rautian, T. G.; Richards, P. G.

    - Official Russian sources in 1996 and 1997 have stated that 340 underground nuclear tests (UNTs) were conducted during 1961-1989 at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) in Eastern Kazakhstan. Only 271 of these nuclear tests appear to have been described with well-determined origin time, coordinates and magnitudes in the openly available technical literature. Thus, good open documentation has been lacking for 69 UNTs at STS.The main goal of our study was to provide detections, estimates of origin time and location, and magnitudes, for as many of these previously undocumented events as possible. We used data from temporary and permanent seismographic stations in the former USSR at distances from 500km to about 1500km from STS. As a result, we have been able to assign magnitude for eight previously located UNTs whose magnitude was not previously known. For 31 UNTs, we have estimated origin time an d assigned magnitude - and for 19 of these 31 we have obtained locations based on seismic signals. Of the remaining 30 poorly documented UNTs, 15 had announced yields that were less than one ton, and 13 occurred simultaneously with another test which was detected. There are only two UNTs, for which the announced yield exceeds one ton and we have been unable to find seismic signals.Most of the newly detected and located events were sub-kiloton. Their magnitudes range from 2.7 up to 5.1 (a multi-kiloton event on 1965 Feb. 4 that was often obscured at teleseismic stations by signals from an earthquake swarm in the Aleutians).For 17 small UNTs at STS, we compare the locations (with their uncertainties) that we had earlier determined in 1994 from analysis of regional seismic waves, with ground-truth information obtained in 1998. The average error of the seismically-determined locations is only about 5km. The ground-truth location is almost alw ays within the predicted small uncertainty of the seismically-determined location.Seismically-determined yield estimates are in good

  1. Irregularities in Early Seismic Rupture Propagation for Large Events in a Crustal Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.; Rice, J. R.

    2001-12-01

    We study early seismic propagation of model earthquakes in a 2-D model of a vertical strike-slip fault with depth-variable rate and state friction properties. Our model earthquakes are obtained in fully dynamic simulations of sequences of instabilities on a fault subjected to realistically slow tectonic loading (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). This work is motivated by results of Ellsworth and Beroza (Science, 1995), who observe that for many earthquakes, far-field velocity seismograms during initial stages of dynamic rupture propagation have irregular fluctuations which constitute a "seismic nucleation phase". In our simulations, we find that such irregularities in velocity seismograms can be caused by two factors: (1) rupture propagation over regions of stress concentrations and (2) partial arrest of rupture in neighboring creeping regions. As rupture approaches a region of stress concentration, it sees increasing background stress and its moment acceleration (to which velocity seismographs in the far field are proportional) increases. After the peak in stress concentration, the rupture sees decreasing background stress and moment acceleration decreases. Hence a fluctuation in moment acceleration is created. If rupture starts sufficiently far from a creeping region, then partial arrest of rupture in the creeping region causes a decrease in moment acceleration. As the other parts of rupture continue to develop, moment acceleration then starts to grow again, and a fluctuation again results. Other factors may cause the irregularities in moment acceleration, e.g., phenomena such as branching and/or intermittent rupture propagation (Poliakov et al., submitted to JGR, 2001) which we have not studied here. Regions of stress concentration are created in our model by arrest of previous smaller events as well as by interactions with creeping regions. One such region is deep in the fault zone, and is caused by the temperature-induced transition from seismogenic to creeping

  2. Discrimination of Rock Fracture and Blast Events Based on Signal Complexity and Machine Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zilong Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The automatic discrimination of rock fracture and blast events is complex and challenging due to the similar waveform characteristics. To solve this problem, a new method based on the signal complexity analysis and machine learning has been proposed in this paper. First, the permutation entropy values of signals at different scale factors are calculated to reflect complexity of signals and constructed into a feature vector set. Secondly, based on the feature vector set, back-propagation neural network (BPNN as a means of machine learning is applied to establish a discriminator for rock fracture and blast events. Then to evaluate the classification performances of the new method, the classifying accuracies of support vector machine (SVM, naive Bayes classifier, and the new method are compared, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves are also analyzed. The results show the new method obtains the best classification performances. In addition, the influence of different scale factor q and number of training samples n on discrimination results is discussed. It is found that the classifying accuracy of the new method reaches the highest value when q = 8–15 or 8–20 and n=140.

  3. Earthquake—explosion discrimination using genetic algorithm-based boosting approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlic, Niksa; Loncaric, Sven

    2010-02-01

    An important and challenging problem in seismic data processing is to discriminate between natural seismic events such as earthquakes and artificial seismic events such as explosions. Many automatic techniques for seismogram classification have been proposed in the literature. Most of these methods have a similar approach to seismogram classification: a predefined set of features based on ad-hoc feature selection criteria is extracted from the seismogram waveform or spectral data and these features are used for signal classification. In this paper we propose a novel approach for seismogram classification. A specially formulated genetic algorithm has been employed to automatically search for a near-optimal seismogram feature set, instead of using ad-hoc feature selection criteria. A boosting method is added to the genetic algorithm when searching for multiple features in order to improve classification performance. A learning set of seismogram data is used by the genetic algorithm to discover a near-optimal feature set. The feature set identified by the genetic algorithm is then used for seismogram classification. The described method is developed to classify seismograms in two groups, whereas a brief overview of method extension for multiple group classification is given. For method verification, a learning set consisting of 40 local earthquake seismograms and 40 explosion seismograms was used. The method was validated on seismogram set consisting of 60 local earthquake seismograms and 60 explosion seismograms, with correct classification of 85%.

  4. Seismic motions from project Rulison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corp., Alexandria, VA (United States)

    1970-05-15

    In the range from a few to a few hundred km, seismic measurements from the Rulison event are shown and compared with experimentally and analytically derived pre-event estimates. Seismograms, peak accelerations, and response spectra are given along with a description of the associated geologic environment. Techniques used for the pre-event estimates are identified with emphasis on supportive data and on Rulison results. Of particular interest is the close-in seismic frequency content which is expected to contain stronger high frequency components. This higher frequency content translates into stronger accelerations within the first tens of km, which in turn affect safety preparations. Additionally, the local geologic structure at nearby population centers must be considered. Pre-event reverse profile refraction surveys are used to delineate the geology at Rifle, Rulison, Grand Valley, and other sites. The geologic parameters are then used as input to seismic amplification models which deliver estimates of local resonant frequencies. Prediction of such resonances allows improved safety assurance against seismic effects hazards. (author)

  5. Moment tensor and location of seismic events in the 2017 DPRK test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, S.; Shi, Q.; Chen, Q. F.; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    The main seismic event in the 2017 DPRK test was followed by a secondary event about eight minutes later. We conducted waveform analysis on the regional broadband waveform data to better constrain the moment tensor and location of these two events, to further understand their relations. In the first place, we applied the generalized Cut-And-Paste (gCAP) method to the regional data to invert the full moment tensor solutions of the two events. Our long period (0.02-0.08 Hz for Pnl, 0.02-0.055 Hz for surface waves) inversions show that the main event was composed of large positive ISO component ( 90% of the total moment) and has a moment magnitude of 5.4. In contrast, the second event shows large negative ISO component ( 50% of the total moment) with a moment magnitude of 4.5. Although there are trade-offs between the CLVD and the ISO component for the second event, chiefly caused by the coda waves from the first event, the result is more robust if we force a small CVLD component in the inversion. We also relocated the epicenter of the second event using P-wave first arrival picks, relative to the location of the first event, which has been accurately determined from the high-resolution geodetic data. The calibration from the first event allows us to precisely locate the second event, which shows an almost identical location to the first event. After a polarity correction, their high-frequency ( 0.25 - 0.9 Hz) regional surface waves also display high similarity, supporting the similar location but opposite ISO polarity of the two events. Our results suggest that the second event was likely to be caused by the collapsing after the main event, in agreement with the surface displacement derived from geodetic observation and modeling results.

  6. Perceiving discrimination in "real life" : Distinguishing negative events from discrimination attributions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thijs, J.T.; Piscoi, Dea

    2016-01-01

    The present survey study examined a sample of ethnic minority preadolescents (ages 9–13) and made the empirical distinction between their exposure to peer victimization and the extent to which they attributed this to discrimination. Both peer victimization and the attribution to discrimination were

  7. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  8. Detection of invisible and crucial events: from seismic fluctuations to the war against terrorism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allegrini, Paolo; Fronzoni, Leone; Grigolini, Paolo; Latora, Vito; Mega, Mirko S.; Palatella, Luigi E-mail: luigi.palatella@df.unipi.it; Rapisarda, Andrea; Vinciguerra, Sergio

    2004-04-01

    We argue that the recent discovery of the non-Poissonian statistics of the seismic main-shocks is a special case of a more general approach to the detection of the distribution of the time increments between one crucial but invisible event and the next. We make the conjecture that the proposed approach can be applied to the analysis of terrorist network with significant benefits for the Intelligence Community.

  9. Testing the Quick Seismic Event Locator and Magnitude Calculator (SSL_Calc) by Marsite Project Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunc, Suleyman; Tunc, Berna; Caka, Deniz; Baris, Serif

    2016-04-01

    Locating and calculating size of the seismic events is quickly one of the most important and challenging issue in especially real time seismology. In this study, we developed a Matlab application to locate seismic events and calculate their magnitudes (Local Magnitude and empirical Moment Magnitude) using single station called SSL_Calc. This newly developed sSoftware has been tested on the all stations of the Marsite project "New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite-MARsite". SSL_Calc algorithm is suitable both for velocity and acceleration sensors. Data has to be in GCF (Güralp Compressed Format). Online or offline data can be selected in SCREAM software (belongs to Guralp Systems Limited) and transferred to SSL_Calc. To locate event P and S wave picks have to be marked by using SSL_Calc window manually. During magnitude calculation, instrument correction has been removed and converted to real displacement in millimeter. Then the displacement data is converted to Wood Anderson Seismometer output by using; Z=[0;0]; P=[-6.28+4.71j; -6.28-4.71j]; A0=[2080] parameters. For Local Magnitude calculation,; maximum displacement amplitude (A) and distance (dist) are used in formula (1) for distances up to 200km and formula (2) for more than 200km. ML=log10(A)-(-1.118-0.0647*dist+0.00071*dist2-3.39E-6*dist3+5.71e-9*dist4) (1) ML=log10(A)+(2.1173+0.0082*dist-0.0000059628*dist2) (2) Following Local Magnitude calculation, the programcode calculates two empiric Moment Magnitudes using formulas (3) Akkar et al. (2010) and (4) Ulusay et al. (2004). Mw=0.953* ML+0.422 (3) Mw=0.7768* ML+1.5921 (4) SSL_Calc is a software that is easy to implement and user friendly and offers practical solution to individual users to location of event and ML, Mw calculation.

  10. Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

  11. Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Occurrence of induced seismicity with large magnitude is critical environmental issues associated with fluid injection for shale gas/oil extraction, waste water disposal, carbon capture and storage, and engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Studies for prediction of the hazardous seismicity and risk assessment of induced seismicity has been activated recently. Many of these studies are based on the seismological statistics and these models use the information of the occurrence time and event magnitude. We have originally developed physics based model named "possible seismic moment model" to evaluate seismic activity and assess seismic moment which can be ready to release. This model is totally based on microseismic information of occurrence time, hypocenter location and magnitude (seismic moment). This model assumes existence of representative parameter having physical meaning that release-able seismic moment per rock volume (seismic moment density) at given field. Seismic moment density is to be estimated from microseismic distribution and their seismic moment. In addition to this, stimulated rock volume is also inferred by progress of microseismic cloud at given time and this quantity can be interpreted as the rock volume which can release seismic energy due to weakening effect of normal stress by injected fluid. Product of these two parameters (equation (1)) provide possible seismic moment which can be released from current stimulated zone as a model output. Difference between output of this model and observed cumulative seismic moment corresponds the seismic moment which will be released in future, based on current stimulation conditions. This value can be translated into possible maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in future. As this way, possible seismic moment can be used to have feedback to hydraulic stimulation operation in real time as an index which can be interpreted easily and intuitively. Possible seismic moment is defined as equation (1), where D

  12. Evaluation of ML-MC as a Depth Discriminant in Yellowstone, USA and Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Koper, K. D.; Burlacu, R.; Sun, D.; D'Amico, S.

    2017-12-01

    Recent work has shown that the difference between two magnitude scales, ML (local Richter magnitude) and MC (coda/duration magnitude), acts as a depth discriminant in Utah. Shallow seismic sources, such as mining induced earthquakes and explosions, have strongly negative ML-MC values, while deeper tectonic earthquakes have ML-MC values near zero. These observations imply that ML-MC might be effective at discriminating small explosions from deeper natural earthquakes at local distances. In this work, we examine seismicity catalogs for the Yellowstone region and Italy to determine if ML-MCacts as a depth discriminant in these regions as well. We identified 4,780 earthquakes that occurred in the Yellowstone region between Sept. 24, 1994 and March 31, 2017 for which both ML and MC were calculated. The ML-MC distribution is well described by a Gaussian function with a mean of 0.102 and a standard deviation of 0.326. We selected a subset of these events with accurate depths and determined mean ML-MC values in various depth bins. An event depth was considered accurate if the formal depth error was less than 2 km and either (1) the nearest station was within one focal depth or (2) the distance to the nearest station was smaller than the bin size. We find that ML-MC decreases as event depths become shallower than about 10 km. Similar to the results for Utah, the decrease is statistically significant and is robust with respect to small changes in bin size and the criteria used to define accurate depths. We used a similar process to evaluate whether ML-MC was a function of source depth for 63,555 earthquakes that occurred between April 16, 2005 and April 30, 2012 in Italy. The ML-MC values in Italy are also well described by a normal distribution, with a mean of -0.477 and standard deviation of 0.315. We again find a statistically significant decrease in ML-MC for shallow earthquakes. In contrast to the Yellowstone results, for Italy ML-MC decreases at a nearly constant rate

  13. Robust satellite techniques (RST for the thermal monitoring of earthquake prone areas: the case of Umbria-Marche October, 1997 seismic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Tramutoli

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Several authors claim a space-time correlation between increases in Earth’s emitted Thermal Infra-Red (TIR radiation and earthquake occurrence. The main problems of such studies regard data analysis and interpretation, which are often done without a validation/confutation control. In this context, a robust data analysis technique (RST, i.e. Robust Satellite Techniques is proposed which permits a statistically based definition of TIR «anomaly » and uses a validation/confutation approach. This technique was already applied to satellite TIR surveys in seismic regions for about twenty earthquakes that occurred in the world. In this work RST is applied for the first time to a time sequence of seismic events. Nine years of Meteosat TIR observations have been analyzed to characterize the unperturbed TIR signal behaviour at specific observation times and locations. The main seismic events of the October 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence have been considered for validation, and relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with Mb ? 4 were taken for confutation purposes. Positive time-space persistent TIR anomalies were observed during seismic periods, generally overlapping the principal tectonic lineaments of the region and sometimes focusing on the vicinity of the epicentre. No similar (in terms of relative intensity and space-time persistence TIR anomalies were detected during seismically unperturbed periods.

  14. Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reidel, Steve P.; Rohay, Alan C.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Sweeney, Mark D.

    2005-09-01

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. For the Hanford Seismic Network, there were 337 triggers during the third quarter of fiscal year 2005. Of these triggers, 20 were earthquakes within the Hanford Seismic Network. The largest earthquake within the Hanford Seismic Network was a magnitude 1.3 event May 25 near Vantage, Washington. During the third quarter, stratigraphically 17 (85%) events occurred in the Columbia River basalt (approximately 0-5 km), no events in the pre-basalt sediments (approximately 5-10 km), and three (15%) in the crystalline basement (approximately 10-25 km). During the first quarter, geographically five (20%) earthquakes occurred in swarm areas, 10 (50%) earthquakes were associated with a major geologic structure, and 5 (25%) were classified as random events.

  15. Historical and Paleo Events as an input for Seismic And Associated Natural Hazard Assessment of Javakheti highland (South Georgia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elashvili, M.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Godoladze, T.; Karakhanyan, A.; Sukhishvili, L.; Nikolaeva, E.; Sokhadze, G.; Avanesyan, M.

    2012-12-01

    of historical earthquakes of 1899 and 1089, as well as Archaeo-Seismological site along the Javakheti seismic fault will be presented. History on Natural Disasters in the region can be complemented by Bertakana Paleo-Landslide, to be discussed separately as one of the mega events in the Area. The mentioned events are considered as an important input for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Javakheti Region.

  16. Observations of rapid-fire event tremor at Lascar volcano, Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Rademacher

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available During the Proyecto de Investigaciòn Sismològica de la Cordillera Occidental (PISCO '94 in the Atacama desert of Northern Chile, a continuously recording broadband seismic station was installed to the NW of the currently active volcano, Lascar. For the month of April, 1994, an additional network of three, short period, three-component stations was deployed around the volcano to help discriminate its seismic signals from other local seismicity. During the deployment, the volcanic activity at Lascar appeared to be limited mainly to the emission of steam and SO2. Tremor from Lascar is a random, «rapid-fire» series of events with a wide range of amplitudes and a quasi-fractal structure. The tremor is generated by an ensemble of independent elementary sources clustered in the volcanic edifice. In the short-term, the excitation of the sources fluctuates strongly, while the long-term power spectrum is very stationary.

  17. Seismic PSA of nuclear power plants a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Dubey, P.N.; Reddy, G.R.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-07-01

    Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Seismic PSA) analysis is an external event PSA analysis. The objective of seismic PSA for the plants is to examine the existence of plant vulnerabilities against postulated earthquakes by numerically assessing the plant safety and to take appropriate measures to enhance the plant safety. Seismic PSA analysis integrates the seismic hazard analysis, seismic response analysis, seismic fragility analysis and system reliability/ accident sequence analysis. In general, the plant consists of normally operating and emergency standby systems and components. The failure during an earthquake (induced directly by excessive inertial stresses or indirectly following the failure of some other item) of an operating component will lead to a change in the state of the plant. In that case, various scenarios can follow depending on the initiating event and the status of other sub-systems. The analysis represents these possible chronological sequences by an event tree. The event trees and the associated fault trees model the sub-systems down to the level of individual components. The procedure has been applied for a typical Indian nuclear power plant. From the internal event PSA level I analysis significant contribution to the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found due to the Fire Water System. Hence, this system was selected to establish the procedure of seismic PSA. In this report the different elements that go into seismic PSA analysis have been discussed. Hazard curves have been developed for the site. Fragility curve for the seismically induced failure of Class IV power has been developed. The fragility curve for fire-water piping system has been generated. Event tree for Class IV power supply has been developed and the dominating accident sequences were identified. CDF has been estimated from these dominating accident sequences by convoluting hazard curves of initiating event and fragility curves of the safety systems. (author)

  18. SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.N. Lindner

    2004-12-03

    The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

  19. SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.N. Lindner

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

  20. Seismic design standardization of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) of Nuclear Facilities have to be designed for normal operating loads such as dead weight, pressure, temperature etc., and accidental loads such as earthquakes, floods, extreme, wind air craft impact, explosions etc. Man made accidents such as aircraft impact, explosions etc., some times may be considered as design basis event and some times taken care by providing administrative controls. This will not be possible in the case of natural events such as earthquakes, flooding, extreme winds etc. Among natural events earthquakes are considered as most devastating and need to be considered as design basis event. It is generally felt design of SSCs for earthquake loads is very time consuming and expensive. Conventional seismic design approaches demands for large number of supports for systems and components. This results in large space occupation and in turn creates difficulties for maintenance and in service inspection of systems and components. In addition, complete exercise of design need to be repeated for plants being located at different sites due to different seismic demands. However, advanced seismic response control methods will help to standardize the seismic design meeting the safety and economy. These methods adopt passive, semi active and active devices, and base isolators to control the seismic response. In nuclear industry, it is advisable to go for passive devices to control the seismic responses. Ideally speaking, these methods will make the designs made for normal loads can also satisfy the seismic demand without calling for change in material, geometry, layout etc. in the SSCs. This paper explain the basic ideas of seismic response control methods, demonstrate the effectiveness of control methods through case studies and eventually give the procedure to be adopted for seismic design standardization of nuclear facilities

  1. The influence of the mining operation on the mine seismicity of Vorkuta coal deposit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmushko, T.; Turuntaev, S. B.; Kulikov, V. I.

    2012-04-01

    The mine seismicity of Vorkuta coal deposit was analyzed. Seismic network consisting of 24 seismic sensors (accelerometers) cover the area of "Komsomolskaya" and "North" mines of Vorkuta deposit. Also there is seismic station of IDG RAS with three-component seismometer near this mines for better defining energy of the seismic events. The catalogs of seismic events contain 9000 and 7000 events with maximum magnitude M=2.3 for "Komsomolskaya" and "North" mines respectively and include the period from 01.09.2008 to 01.09.2011. The b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation was -1.0 and -1.15 respectively for the mines, meanwhile b-value for the nature seismicity was -0,9. It was found, that the number of seismic events per hour during mine combine operation is higher in 2.5 times than the number of seismic events during the break in the operation. Also, the total energy of the events per hour during the operation is higher in 3-5 times than during the break. The study showed, that the number and the energy of the seismic events relate with the hours of mine combine operation. The spatial distribution of the seismic events showed, that 80% of all events and 85% of strong events (M>1.6) were located in and near the longwall under development during the mine combine operations as well asduring the breaks. The isoclines of seismic event numbers proved that the direction of motion of the boundary of seismic events extension coincides with the direction of development, the maximum number of events for any period lies within the wall under operation. The rockburst with M=2.3 occurring at the North mine at July 16, 2011 was considered. The dependences of the energy and of the number of events with different magnitudes on the time showed that the number of events with M=1 and especially M=0.5 before the rockburst decreased, which corresponds to the prognostic seismic quietness, described in the research works. The spatial distribution of the events for the 6 month before the

  2. A new seismic station in Romania the Bucovina seismic array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigore, Adrian; Grecu, Bogdan; Ionescu, Constantin; Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela; Rizescu, Mihaela

    2002-01-01

    Recently, a new seismic monitoring station, the Bucovina Seismic Array, has been established in the northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania. The array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 short-period and one broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km area. On July 24, 2002 the official Opening Ceremony of Bucovina Seismic Array took place in the area near the city of Campulung Moldovenesc in the presence of Romanian Prime Minister, Adrian Nastase. Starting with this date, the new seismic monitoring system became fully operational by continuous recording and transmitting data in real-time to the National Data Center of Romania, in Bucharest and to the National Data Center of USA, in Florida. Bucovina Seismic Array, added to the present Seismic Network, will provide much better seismic monitoring coverage of Romania's territory, on-scale recording for weak-to-strong events, and will contribute to advanced seismological studies on seismic hazard and risk, local effects and microzonation, seismic source physics, Earth structure. (authors)

  3. Development of Canadian seismic design approach and overview of seismic standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usmani, A. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, ON (Canada); Aziz, T. [TSAziz Consulting Inc., Mississauga, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Historically the Canadian seismic design approaches have evolved for CANDU® nuclear power plants to ensure that they are designed to withstand a design basis earthquake (DBE) and have margins to meet the safety requirements of beyond DBE (BDBE). While the Canadian approach differs from others, it is comparable and in some cases more conservative. The seismic requirements are captured in five CSA nuclear standards which are kept up to date and incorporate lessons learnt from recent seismic events. This paper describes the evolution of Canadian approach, comparison with others and provides an overview and salient features of CSA seismic standards. (author)

  4. Peak Ground Velocities for Seismic Events at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Coppersmith; R. Quittmeyer

    2005-01-01

    This report describes a scientific analysis to bound credible horizontal peak ground velocities (PGV) for the repository waste emplacement level at Yucca Mountain. Results are presented as a probability distribution for horizontal PGV to represent uncertainties in the analysis. The analysis also combines the bound to horizontal PGV with results of ground motion site-response modeling (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170027]) to develop a composite hazard curve for horizontal PGV at the waste emplacement level. This result provides input to an abstraction of seismic consequences (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169183]). The seismic consequence abstraction, in turn, defines the input data and computational algorithms for the seismic scenario class of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Planning for the analysis is documented in Technical Work Plan TWP-MGR-GS-000001 (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171850]). The bound on horizontal PGV at the repository waste emplacement level developed in this analysis complements ground motions developed on the basis of PSHA results. In the PSHA, ground motion experts characterized the epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability in their ground motion interpretations. To characterize the aleatory variability they used unbounded lognormal distributions. As a consequence of these characterizations, as seismic hazard calculations are extended to lower and lower annual frequencies of being exceeded, the ground motion level increases without bound, eventually reaching levels that are not credible (Corradini 2003 [DIRS 171191]). To provide credible seismic inputs for TSPA, in accordance with 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 63.102(j) [DIRS 156605], this complementary analysis is carried out to determine reasonable bounding values of horizontal PGV at the waste emplacement level for annual frequencies of exceedance as low as 10 -8 . For each realization of the TSPA seismic scenario, the results of this analysis provide a constraint on the values sampled from the

  5. Testing Event Discrimination over Broad Regions using the Historical Borovoye Observatory Explosion Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasyanos, Michael E.; Ford, Sean R.; Walter, William R.

    2014-03-01

    We test the performance of high-frequency regional P/S discriminants to differentiate between earthquakes and explosions at test sites and over broad regions using a historical dataset of explosions recorded at the Borovoye Observatory in Kazakhstan. We compare these explosions to modern recordings of earthquakes at the same location. We then evaluate the separation of the two types of events using the raw measurements and those where the amplitudes are corrected for 1-D and 2-D attenuation structure. We find that high-frequency P/S amplitudes can reliably identify earthquakes and explosions, and that the discriminant is applicable over broad regions as long as propagation effects are properly accounted for. Lateral attenuation corrections provide the largest improvement in the 2-4 Hz band, the use of which may successfully enable the identification of smaller, distant events that have lower signal-to-noise at higher frequencies. We also find variations in P/S ratios among the three main nuclear testing locations within the Semipalatinsk Test Site which, due to their nearly identical paths to BRVK, must be a function of differing geology and emplacement conditions.

  6. Central Italy magnetotelluric investigation. Structures and relations to seismic events: analysis of initial data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Marianiuk

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available A scientific collaboration between the Warsaw Academy of Science, (Poland and the National Institute of Geophysics (Italy, gave rise to the installation of few stations for the long term measurement of magnetotelluric fields in central Italy. The selection of investigation sites was determined by the individual seismic interest of each location. The project began in the summer of 1991, with the installation of 2 magnetotelluric stations in the province of Isernia, (Collemeluccio and Montedimezzo. In 1992, 2 more stations became operative, one in the province of Rieti, (Fassinoro, the other in the province of L'Aquila, (S. Vittoria. For the purpose of this project, the magnetic observatory in L'Aquila was also equipped with electric lines, for the measurement of the telluric field. The aim of the analysis here presented, is to show that is possible to follow the temporal evolution of magnetotelluric characteristic parameters. At Collemeluccio this evolution was compared with the seismic released energy for events recorded within the study area.

  7. Role of seismic PRA in seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.

    1985-01-01

    This paper highlights the important roles that seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) can play in the seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants. If a seismic PRA has been performed for a plant, its results can be utilized to evaluate the seismic capability beyond the safe shutdown event (SSE). Seismic fragilities of key structures and equipment, fragilities of dominant plant damage states and the frequencies of occurrence of these plant damage states are reviewed to establish the seismic safety of the plant beyond the SSE level. Guidelines for seismic margin reviews and upgrading may be developed by first identifying the generic classes of structures and equipment that have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in the completed seismic PRAs, studying the underlying causes for their contribution and examining why certain other items (e.g., piping) have not proved to be high-risk-contributors

  8. Seismic risk map for Southeastern Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mioto, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    During the last few years, some studies regarding seismic risk were prepared for three regions of Brazil. They were carried on account of two basic interests: first, toward the seismic history and recurrence of Brazilian seismic events; second, in a way as to provide seismic parameters for the design and construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. The first seismic risk map prepared for the southeastern region was elaborated in 1979 by 6he Universidade de Brasilia (UnB-Brasilia Seismological Station). In 1981 another seismic risk map was completed on the basis of seismotectonic studies carried out for the design and construction of the Nuclear power plants of Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro) by IPT (Mining and Applied Geology Division). In Brazil, until 1984, seismic studies concerning hydro and nuclear power plants and other civil construction of larger size did not take into account the seismic events from the point of view of probabilities of seismic recurrences. Such analysis in design is more important than the choice of a level of intensity or magnitude, or adoption of a seismicity level ased on deterministic methods. In this way, some considerations were made, concerning the use of seisms in Brazilian designs of hydro and nuclear power plants, as far as seismic analysis is concerned, recently altered over the current seismic risk panorama. (D.J.M.) [pt

  9. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCann, W R; Nishenko, S P; Sykes, L R; Krause, J

    1979-01-01

    The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.

  10. Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2008-12-29

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During fiscal year 2008, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded 1431 triggers on the seismometer system, which included 112 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 422 regional and teleseismic events. There were 74 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. The highest-magnitude event (3.7 Mc) occurred on May 18, 2008, and was located approximately 17 km east of Prosser at a depth of 20.5 km. With regard to the depth distribution, 13 earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), 45 earthquakes were located at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and 16 earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, 54 earthquakes were located in swarm areas and 20 earthquakes were classified as random events. The May 18 earthquake was the highest magnitude event recorded since 1975 in the vicinity of the Hanford Site (between 46 degrees and 47 degrees north latitude and

  11. AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

  12. L{sub g} coda moment rate spectra and discrimination using L{sub g} coda envelopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayeda, K.M.; Walter, W.R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Low magnitude seismic monitoring will depend largely on high frequency near-regional discriminants such as ratios of P to S energy and spectral amplitude ratios within P or S phases. Due to high frequency attenuation and sparse distribution of recording stations, small magnitude events will have to be identified with only a few stations, in some instances perhaps only one. Recently, stable single station magnitudes for explosions at NTS and moment rate spectra for earthquakes throughout the western U.S. have been estimated using L{sub g} coda envelopes. The averaging nature of coda waves virtually eliminates the amplitude variability due to source radiation anisotropy and lateral variations in path geology between the source and receiver. In this study, we find that L{sub g} coda spectral ratios are 3 to 4 times less variable than direct phase spectral ratio measurements. Events fired in low strength-high gas porosity material have higher spectral ratios than events in high strength-low gas porosity material, and thus discriminate well from earthquakes which have the lowest spectral ratios. In contrast, P{sub g}/L{sub g} phase ratios for events in low strength-high gas porosity material lie closest to the earthquake population. A combination of both discriminants performs better than either one does alone. Moment rate spectra for explosions show strong depth-dependent spectral peaking that is not observed in normal depth western U.S. earthquakes and is consistent with strong R{sub g} to S scattering near the explosion source. This explosion spectral peaking will be explored in future work as part of a possible broadband discriminant.

  13. Hanford annual second quarter seismic report, fiscal year 1998: Seismicity on and near the Hanford Site, Pasco, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.; Rohay, A.C.

    1998-06-01

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of an earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (ENN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the second quarter of FY98 for stations in the HSN was 99.92%. The operational rate for the second quarter of FY98 for stations of the EWRN was 99.46%. For the second quarter of FY98, the acquisition computer triggered 159 times. Of these triggers 14 were local earthquakes: 7 (50%) in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 3 (21%) in the pre-basalt sediments, and 4 (29%) in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report. The most significant seismic event for the second quarter was on March 23, 1998 when a 1.9 Mc occurred near Eltopia, WA and was felt by local residents. Although this was a small event, it was felt at the surface and is an indication of the potential impact on Hanford of seismic events that are common to the Site.

  14. Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

    2007-01-01

    An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

  15. Evidence of a Large Triggered Event in the Nepal Himalaya Following the Gorkha Earthquake: Implications Toward Enhanced Seismic Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Prantik

    2018-03-01

    A DC (double couple) constrained multiple point-source moment-tensor inversion is performed on the band-passed (0.008-0.10 Hz) displacement data of the 25 April (M w 7.8) 2015 Nepal mainshock, from 17 broadband stations in India. Our results reveal that the 25 April event (strike = 324°, dip = 14°, rake = 88°) ruptured the north-dipping main Himalayan thrust (MHT) at 16 km depth. We modeled the Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) produced by the slip on the fault plane of the 25 April Nepal mainshock. A strong correlation with occurrences of aftershocks and regions of increased positive ΔCFS is obtained below the aftershock zone of the 2015 Nepal mainshock. We notice that predicted ΔCFS at 16 km depth show a positive Coulomb stress of 0.06 MPa at the location of the 12 May 2015 event. These small modeled stress changes can lead to trigger events if the crust is already near to failure, but these small stresses can also advance the occurrence of future earthquakes. The main finding of our ΔCFS modeling implies that the 25 April event increased the Coulomb stress changes by 0.06 MPa at 16 km depth below the site of the 12 May event, and thus, this event can be termed as triggered. We propose that the seismic hazard in the Himalaya is not only caused by the mainshock slip on the MHT; rather, the occurrence of large triggered event on the MHT can also enhance our understanding of the seismic hazard in the Nepal Himalaya.

  16. Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

    1997-01-01

    To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probability (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. The use of some very high value for the seismic acceleration imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very costly technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase maintenance costs. The considerations of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced, may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The paper proposes the applications of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects NPP Cernavoda site, by this method. The paper also presents the manner to analyse the focus activity as per the new approach and it assesses the maximum seismic acceleration that may affect NPP Cernavoda throughout its life-span (∼ 30 years). Development and applications of new mathematical analysis method, both for long - and short - time intervals, may lead to important contributions in the process of foretelling the seismic events in the future. (authors)

  17. Pre-seismic geomagnetic and ionosphere signatures related to the Mw5.7 earthquake occurred in Vrancea zone on September 24, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanica, Dragos Armand; Stanica, Dumitru; Błęcki, Jan; Ernst, Tomasz; Jóźwiak, Waldemar; Słomiński, Jan

    2018-02-01

    To emphasize the relationship between the pre-seismic geomagnetic signals and Vrancea seismicity, in this work it is hypothesized that before an earthquake initiation, the high stress reached into seismogenic volume generates dehydration of the rocks and fracturing processes followed by release of electric charges along the faulting systems, which lead to resistivity changes. These changes were explored on September 2016 by the normalized function Bzn obtained from the geomagnetic data recorded in ULF range (0.001-0.0083 Hz). A statistical analysis was also performed to discriminate on the new Bzn* time series a pre-seismic signature related to the Mw5.7 earthquake. Significant anomalous behavior of Bzn* was identified on September 21, with 3 days prior to the onset of the seismic event. Similar information is provided by registrations of the magnetic and electron concentration variations in the ionosphere over the Vrancea zone, by Swarm satellites, 4 days and 1 day before the earthquake.

  18. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  19. Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, A.; Yu, X.; Shen, Z.

    2014-12-01

    Although the seismically active North China basin has the most complete written records of pre-instrumentation earthquakes in the world, this information has not been fully utilized for assessing potential earthquake hazards of this densely populated region that hosts ~200 million people. In this study, we use the historical records to document the earthquake migration pattern and the existence of a 180-km seismic gap along the 600-km long right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian (THC) fault zone that cuts across the North China basin. The newly recognized seismic gap, which is centered at Tianjin with a population of 11 million people and ~120 km from Beijing (22 million people) and Tangshan (7 million people), has not been ruptured in the past 1000 years by M≥6 earthquakes. The seismic migration pattern in the past millennium suggests that the epicenters of major earthquakes have shifted towards this seismic gap along the THC fault, which implies that the 180- km gap could be the site of the next great earthquake with M≈7.6 if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping or seismic strain transfer between active faults.

  20. Analysis of seismic waves crossing the Santa Clara Valley using the three-component MUSIQUE array algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobiger, Manuel; Cornou, Cécile; Bard, Pierre-Yves; Le Bihan, Nicolas; Imperatori, Walter

    2016-10-01

    We introduce the MUSIQUE algorithm and apply it to seismic wavefield recordings in California. The algorithm is designed to analyse seismic signals recorded by arrays of three-component seismic sensors. It is based on the MUSIC and the quaternion-MUSIC algorithms. In a first step, the MUSIC algorithm is applied in order to estimate the backazimuth and velocity of incident seismic waves and to discriminate between Love and possible Rayleigh waves. In a second step, the polarization parameters of possible Rayleigh waves are analysed using quaternion-MUSIC, distinguishing retrograde and prograde Rayleigh waves and determining their ellipticity. In this study, we apply the MUSIQUE algorithm to seismic wavefield recordings of the San Jose Dense Seismic Array. This array has been installed in 1999 in the Evergreen Basin, a sedimentary basin in the Eastern Santa Clara Valley. The analysis includes 22 regional earthquakes with epicentres between 40 and 600 km distant from the array and covering different backazimuths with respect to the array. The azimuthal distribution and the energy partition of the different surface wave types are analysed. Love waves dominate the wavefield for the vast majority of the events. For close events in the north, the wavefield is dominated by the first harmonic mode of Love waves, for farther events, the fundamental mode dominates. The energy distribution is different for earthquakes occurring northwest and southeast of the array. In both cases, the waves crossing the array are mostly arriving from the respective hemicycle. However, scattered Love waves arriving from the south can be seen for all earthquakes. Combining the information of all events, it is possible to retrieve the Love wave dispersion curves of the fundamental and the first harmonic mode. The particle motion of the fundamental mode of Rayleigh waves is retrograde and for the first harmonic mode, it is prograde. For both modes, we can also retrieve dispersion and ellipticity

  1. Variation of radon levels in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in Garhwal Himalayas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasad, Yogesh; Prasad, Ganesh; Negi, M.S.; Ramola, R.C.; Choubey, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    Radon is being measured continuously in spring water at Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal in Himalayan region by using radon emanometer since December 2002. An effort was made to correlate the variance of radon concentration in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in study area. The positive correlation (coefficient = 0.79, 0.53, 0.60 and 0.70) was observed between measured radon concentration and minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity and water discharge rate from the spring, respectively. However, no correlation was recorded between radon concentration and rain fall in the study area. Sudden increase in radon concentration in spring water were observed before the earthquakes occurred on 24 January 2003 of magnitude 3.4 on Richter scale having epicenter near Uttarkashi in Garhwal Himalaya and on 31 January 2003 of magnitude 3.1 on Richter scale having epicenter almost in same area. Similar changes in radon concentration were recorded before the earthquakes occurred on 4 April 2003 with magnitude 4.0 having epicenter near Almora in Kumaon Himalaya and on 26 May 2003 having magnitude 3.5 in Chamoli region of Garhwal Himalaya. Regular radon anomaly was recorded with micro seismic events from 5th August to 4th September 2003, which is discussed in detail. The impact of non geophysical and geophysical events on radon concentration in spring water is discussed in details. This type of study will help us to develop earthquake alarm model from radon in near future. (author)

  2. The Alabama, U.S.A., seismic event and strata collapse of May 7, 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, L.T.; Copeland, C.W.

    1989-01-01

    On May 7, 1986, the residents of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, felt a seismic event of local magnitude 3.6 that occurred at the same time as a rock burst and roof collapse in an active longwall coal mine. Visual inspection of the seismograms reveals a deficiency in energy at frequencies above 20 Hz compared to tectonic earthquakes or surface blasts. The predominance of energy below 5 Hz may explain reports of body wave magnitudes (mb) greater than 4.2. Also, 1.0 Hz surface waves were more strongly excited than body waves and may explain local felt effects more typically associated with greater epicentral distances. All recorded first motions were dilatational. The concentration of stations in the northern hemisphere allows reverse motion on an east-trending near-vertical plane or strike-slip motion on northwest or southeast trending planes. The reverse focal mechanism is preferred, because the area of roof collapse and the area of active longwall mining are located between two east-striking loose vertical fracture zones. The characteristics of the seismic event suggest that it might have been sudden shear failure resulting from accumulated strain energy in overlying strata behind an active longwall. Although an alternate interpretation of the focal mechanism as an implosion or shear failure in the strata above previously mined out areas is also allowed by the first motion data, this alternate intepretation is not supported by geological data. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

  3. Seismic and Geodetic Monitoring of the Nicoya, Costa Rica, Seismic Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protti, M.; Gonzalez, V.; Schwartz, S.; Dixon, T.; Kato, T.; Kaneda, Y.; Simila, G.; Sampson, D.

    2007-05-01

    The Nicoya segment of the Middle America Trench has been recognized as a mature seismic gap with potential to generate a large earthquake in the near future (it ruptured with large earthquakes in 1853, 1900 and 1950). Low level of background seismicity and fast crustal deformation of the forearc are indicatives of strong coupling along the plate interface. Given its high seismic potential, the available data and especially the fact that the Nicoya peninsula extends over large part of the rupture area, this gap was selected as one of the two sites for a MARGINS-SEIZE experiment. With the goal of documenting the evolution of loading and stress release along this seismic gap, an international effort involving several institutions from Costa Rica, the United States and Japan is being carried out for over a decade in the region. This effort involves the installation of temporary and permanent seismic and geodetic networks. The seismic network includes short period, broad band and strong motion instruments. The seismic monitoring has provided valuable information on the geometry and characteristics of the plate interface. The geodetic network includes temporary and permanent GPS stations as well as surface and borehole tiltmeters. The geodetic networks have helped quantify the extend and degree of coupling. A continuously recording, three- station GPS network on the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica, recorded what we believe is the first slow slip event observed along the plate interface of the Costa Rica subduction zone. We will present results from these monitoring networks. Collaborative international efforts are focused on expanding these seismic and geodetic networks to provide improved resolution of future creep events, to enhanced understanding of the mechanical behavior of the Nicoya subduction segment of the Middle American Trench and possibly capture the next large earthquake and its potential precursor deformation.

  4. Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Arno; Oye, Volker; Jousset, Philippe; Deichmann, Nicholas; Gritto, Roland; McGarr, Arthur F.; Majer, Ernest; Bruhn, David

    2014-01-01

    In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order to help assess the geothermal resource. The hypocentres of the observed seismic events (seismic cloud) are dependent on the design of the installed network, the used velocity model and the applied location technique. During the stimulation phase, the attention is turned to reservoir hydraulics (e.g., fluid pressure, injection volume) and its relation to larger magnitude seismic events, their source characteristics and occurrence in space and time. A change in isotropic components of the full waveform moment tensor is observed for events close to the injection well (tensile character) as compared to events further away from the injection well (shear character). Tensile events coincide with high Gutenberg-Richter b-values and low Brune stress drop values. The stress regime in the reservoir controls the direction of the fracture growth at depth, as indicated by the extent of the seismic cloud detected. Stress magnitudes are important in multiple stimulation of wells, where little or no seismicity is observed until the previous maximum stress level is exceeded (Kaiser Effect). Prior to drilling, obtaining a 3D P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) model down to reservoir depth is recommended. In the stimulation phase, we recommend to monitor and to locate seismicity with high precision (decametre) in real-time and to perform local 4D tomography for velocity ratio (Vp/Vs). During exploitation, one should use observed and model induced seismicity to forward estimate seismic hazard so that field operators are in a position to adjust well hydraulics (rate and volume of the

  5. Statistical Seismology and Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiampo, K. F.; González, P. J.; Kazemian, J.

    2014-12-01

    While seismicity triggered or induced by natural resources production such as mining or water impoundment in large dams has long been recognized, the recent increase in the unconventional production of oil and gas has been linked to rapid rise in seismicity in many places, including central North America (Ellsworth et al., 2012; Ellsworth, 2013). Worldwide, induced events of M~5 have occurred and, although rare, have resulted in both damage and public concern (Horton, 2012; Keranen et al., 2013). In addition, over the past twenty years, the increase in both number and coverage of seismic stations has resulted in an unprecedented ability to precisely record the magnitude and location of large numbers of small magnitude events. The increase in the number and type of seismic sequences available for detailed study has revealed differences in their statistics that previously difficult to quantify. For example, seismic swarms that produce significant numbers of foreshocks as well as aftershocks have been observed in different tectonic settings, including California, Iceland, and the East Pacific Rise (McGuire et al., 2005; Shearer, 2012; Kazemian et al., 2014). Similarly, smaller events have been observed prior to larger induced events in several occurrences from energy production. The field of statistical seismology has long focused on the question of triggering and the mechanisms responsible (Stein et al., 1992; Hill et al., 1993; Steacy et al., 2005; Parsons, 2005; Main et al., 2006). For example, in most cases the associated stress perturbations are much smaller than the earthquake stress drop, suggesting an inherent sensitivity to relatively small stress changes (Nalbant et al., 2005). Induced seismicity provides the opportunity to investigate triggering and, in particular, the differences between long- and short-range triggering. Here we investigate the statistics of induced seismicity sequences from around the world, including central North America and Spain, and

  6. On-line monitoring and data reduction of seismic events at Gauribidanur array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bharthur, R.N.; Rao, B.S.; Roy, F.

    1977-01-01

    Reduction of the threshold may improve the detection capability of the system, but it will lead to more spurious triggers. In order to overcome this problem, the nature of the spurious triggers is studied in detail. It is found that in general the cross correlation coefficient between the two beams viz. Ssup(A) and Ssup(B), due to spurious triggers has a maximum value of .4, where as the corresponding value of seismic events showed a minimum of .6. Therefore with the incorporation of a programme which suppresses all the triggers having a cross correlation coefficient of .4 and less, it will be possible to further bring down the threshold level. (author)

  7. False alarms and mine seismicity: An example from the Gentry Mountain mining region, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, S.R.

    1992-01-01

    Mining regions are a cause of concern for monitoring of nuclear test ban treaties because they present the opportunity for clandestine nuclear tests (i.e. decoupled explosions). Mining operations are often characterized by high seismicity rates and can provide the cover for excavating voids for decoupling. Chemical explosions (seemingly as part of normal mining activities) can be used to complicate the signals from a simultaneous decoupled nuclear explosion. Thus, most concern about mines has dealt with the issue of missed violations to a test ban treaty. In this study, we raise the diplomatic concern of false alarms associated with mining activities. Numerous reports and papers have been published about anomalous seismicity associated with mining activities. As part of a large discrimination study in the western US (Taylor et al., 1989), we had one earthquake that was consistently classified as an explosion. The magnitude 3.5 disturbance occurred on May 14, 1981 and was conspicuous in its lack of Love waves, relative lack of high- frequency energy, low Lg/Pg ratio, and high m b - M s . A moment-tensor solution by Patton and Zandt (1991) indicated the event had a large implosional component. The event occurred in the Gentry Mountain coal mining region in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. Using a simple source representation, we modeled the event as a tabular excavation collapse that occurred as a result of normal mining activities. This study raises the importance of having a good catalogue of seismic data and information about mining activities from potential proliferant nations

  8. Automated seismic detection of landslides at regional scales: a Random Forest based detection algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibert, C.; Michéa, D.; Provost, F.; Malet, J. P.; Geertsema, M.

    2017-12-01

    Detection of landslide occurrences and measurement of their dynamics properties during run-out is a high research priority but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has started to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of the densification of global, regional and local networks of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now permit the seismic detection and location of landslides in near-real-time. This seismic detection could potentially greatly increase the spatio-temporal resolution at which we study landslides triggering, which is critical to better understand the influence of external forcings such as rainfalls and earthquakes. However, detecting automatically seismic signals generated by landslides still represents a challenge, especially for events with small mass. The low signal-to-noise ratio classically observed for landslide-generated seismic signals and the difficulty to discriminate these signals from those generated by regional earthquakes or anthropogenic and natural noises are some of the obstacles that have to be circumvented. We present a new method for automatically constructing instrumental landslide catalogues from continuous seismic data. We developed a robust and versatile solution, which can be implemented in any context where a seismic detection of landslides or other mass movements is relevant. The method is based on a spectral detection of the seismic signals and the identification of the sources with a Random Forest machine learning algorithm. The spectral detection allows detecting signals with low signal-to-noise ratio, while the Random Forest algorithm achieve a high rate of positive identification of the seismic signals generated by landslides and other seismic sources. The processing chain is implemented to work in a High Performance Computers centre which permits to explore years of continuous seismic data rapidly. We present here the preliminary results of the application of this processing chain for years

  9. Seismic analysis for conceptual design of HCCR TBM-set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dong Won, E-mail: dwlee@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Seong Dae; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Eo Hwak; Kim, Suk-Kwon; Yoon, Jae Sung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Kyu In [Gentec Co., Daejeon, Republic of Korea (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • The seismic analysis of KO HCCR TBM-set are performed. • The seismic envents like SL-1, SL-2, and SMHV are selected and evaluated with FEM code (ANSYS). • The results of the stresses and deformations are confirmed to meet the design criteria. - Abstract: Using the conceptual design of the Korean helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) test blanket module (TBM) including the TBM-shield for testing in ITER, a seismic analysis is performed. According to the ITER TBM port plug (TBM PP) system load specifications, seismic events are selected as SL-1 (seismic level-1), SL-2 (seismic level-2), and SMHV (seismes maximaux historiquement vraisemblables, Maximum Histroically Probable Earthquakes). In a modal analysis a total of 50 modes are obtained. Then, a spectra response analysis for each seismic event is carried out using ANSYS based on the modal analysis results. For each event, the obtained Tresca stress is evaluated to confirm the design integrity, by comparing the resulting stress to the design criteria. The Tresca strain and displacement are also estimated for the HCCR TBM-set. From the analysis, it was concluded that the maximum stresses by the seismic events meet the design criteria, and the displacements are lower than the designed gap from the TBM PP frame. The results are provided to a load combination analysis.

  10. Soil-structural interaction analysis of RBMK type NPP for seismic event. Progress report. From 1 July 1998 - 30 June 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the project is to assess the structural behavior and safety capacity of a RBMK-1000 MW Main Building Complex under critical combination of loads including seismic events. This project is part of the Coordinated Research Program carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency on safety of RBMK Type Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in Relation to External Events. The nuclear power plant considered for this study is the Sosnovy Bor NPP, located near St.Petersburg, Russia. The Soviet standard design RBMK-1000 MW type units installed in Sosnovy Bor NPP were originally designed for a Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) with a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.1 g. The relevant response spectra are not available for reference and assessment. The new international requirements for nuclear power plants in operation require site specific seismic hazard studies as a basis for the definition of a Review Level Earthquake (RLE) for reassessment of the structures and safety related equipment Ell - As the RLE site specific seismic data is still not available, the RLE earthquake spectra for Kozloduy NPP scaled to PGA=0.1 g were used in this study. This value is intentionally chosen for comparison purposes. The Russian design requirements (if design floor response spectra are available) will be compared with the international regulations. The scope of the study is to perform a Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) seismic response analysis of the referenced RBMK-11000 MW. Main Building Complex to evaluate the effect on the structural response of a greater than design earthquake. The analysis is focused on a realistic assessment of the structural response to a potentially higher earthquake level instead of a conservative design type analysis. Special attention is paid on the seismic response of the sub-structures in the safe shutdown path, as well as on the locations of the heavy equipment

  11. Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for earthquakes, volcanic events, and nuclear explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvizuri, Celso R.

    We present a catalog of full seismic moment tensors for 63 events from Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia. The events were recorded during 2011-2012 in the PLUTONS seismic array of 24 broadband stations. Most events had magnitudes between 0.5 and 2.0 and did not generate discernible surface waves; the largest event was Mw 2.8. For each event we computed the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and we used first-motion polarity measurements to reduce the number of possible solutions. Each moment tensor solution was obtained using a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors. For each event we show the misfit function in eigenvalue space, represented by a lune. We identify three subsets of the catalog: (1) 6 isotropic events, (2) 5 tensional crack events, and (3) a swarm of 14 events southeast of the volcanic center that appear to be double couples. The occurrence of positively isotropic events is consistent with other published results from volcanic and geothermal regions. Several of these previous results, as well as our results, cannot be interpreted within the context of either an oblique opening crack or a crack-plus-double-couple model. Proper characterization of uncertainties for full moment tensors is critical for distinguishing among physical models of source processes. A seismic moment tensor is a 3x3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of a seismic source. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms for each moment tensor and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M0 for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M0, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or

  12. Determination of the seismic moment tensor for local events in the South Shetland Islands and Bransfield Strait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidarelli, M.; Panza, G.F.

    2005-06-01

    We present the results of the analysis for a set of earthquakes recorded in the Bransfield Strait and the South Shetland Islands in the period 1997-1998, to determine focal mechanisms and source time functions. Events with magnitudes between 3 and 5.6 have been analysed, and the source parameters have been retrieved using a robust methodology (INPAR) that allows the reliable inversion of a limited number of noisy records. This methodology is particularly important in oceanic environments, where the presence of seismic noise and the small number of stations makes it difficult to analyse small magnitude events. (author)

  13. Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-01-01

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve

  14. Global and Regional 3D Tomography for Improved Seismic Event Location and Uncertainty in Explosion Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, N.; Begnaud, M. L.; Hipp, J. R.; Ballard, S.; Young, C. S.; Encarnacao, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The SALSA3D global 3D velocity model of the Earth was developed to improve the accuracy and precision of seismic travel time predictions for a wide suite of regional and teleseismic phases. Recently, the global SALSA3D model was updated to include additional body wave phases including mantle phases, core phases, reflections off the core-mantle boundary and underside reflections off the surface of the Earth. We show that this update improves travel time predictions and leads directly to significant improvements in the accuracy and precision of seismic event locations as compared to locations computed using standard 1D velocity models like ak135, or 2½D models like RSTT. A key feature of our inversions is that path-specific model uncertainty of travel time predictions are calculated using the full 3D model covariance matrix computed during tomography, which results in more realistic uncertainty ellipses that directly reflect tomographic data coverage. Application of this method can also be done at a regional scale: we present a velocity model with uncertainty obtained using data obtained from the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. These results show a reduction in travel-time residuals for re-located events compared with those obtained using previously published models.

  15. Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-04-06

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve.

  16. Characteristics of aperiodic sequence of slip events caused by interaction between seismic patches and that caused be self-organized stress heterogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, N.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations of earthquake cycles are conducted to investigate the origin of complexity of earthquake recurrence. There are two main causes of the complexity. One is self-organized stress heterogeneity due to dynamical effect. The other is the effect of interaction between some fault patches. In the model, friction on the fault is assumed to obey a rate- and state-dependent friction law. Circular patches of velocity-weakening frictional property are assumed on the fault. On the remaining areas of the fault, velocity-strengthening friction is assumed. We consider three models: Single patch model, two-patch model, and three-patch model. In the first model, the dynamical effect is mainly examined. The latter two models take into consideration the effect of interaction as well as the dynamical effect. Complex multiperiodic or aperiodic sequences of slip events occur when slip behavior changes from the seismic to aseismic, and when the degree of interaction between seismic patches is intermediate. The former is observed in all the models, and the latter is observed in the two-patch model and the three-patch model. Evolution of spatial distribution of shear stress on the fault suggests that aperiodicity at the transition from seismic to aseismic slip is caused by self-organized stress heterogeneity. The iteration maps of recurrence intervals of slip events in aperiodic sequences are examined, and they are approximately expressed by simple curves for aperiodicity at the transition from seismic to aseismic slip. In contrast, the iteration maps for aperiodic sequences caused by interaction between seismic patches are scattered and they are not expressed by simple curves. This result suggests that complex sequences caused by different mechanisms may be distinguished.

  17. Cross-correlation analysis of 2012-2014 seismic events in Central-Northern Italy: insights from the geochemical monitoring network of Tuscany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierotti, Lisa; Facca, Gianluca; Gherardi, Fabrizio

    2015-04-01

    Since late 2002, a geochemical monitoring network is operating in Tuscany, Central Italy, to collect data and possibly identify geochemical anomalies that characteristically occur before regionally significant (i.e. with magnitude > 3) seismic events. The network currently consists of 6 stations located in areas already investigated in detail for their geological setting, hydrogeological and geochemical background and boundary conditions. All these stations are equipped for remote, continuous monitoring of selected physicochemical parameters (temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity), and dissolved concentrations of CO2 and CH4. Additional information are obtained through in situ discrete monitoring. Field surveys are periodically performed to guarantee maintenance and performance control of the sensors of the automatic stations, and to collect water samples for the determination of the chemical and stable isotope composition of all the springs investigated for seismic precursors. Geochemical continuous signals are numerically processed to remove outliers, monitoring errors and aseismic effects from seasonal and climatic fluctuations. The elaboration of smoothed, long-term time series (more than 200000 data available today for each station) allows for a relatively accurate definition of geochemical background values. Geochemical values out of the two-sigma relative standard deviation domain are inspected as possible indicators of physicochemical changes related to regional seismic activity. Starting on November 2011, four stations of the Tuscany network located in two separate mountainous areas of Northern Apennines separating Tuscany from Emilia-Romagna region (Equi Terme and Gallicano), and Tuscany from Emilia-Romagna and Umbria regions (Vicchio and Caprese Michelangelo), started to register anomalous values in pH and CO2 partial pressure (PCO2). Cross-correlation analysis indicates an apparent relationship between the most important seismic

  18. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oros Eugen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0. Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of Timisoara (January 2012 and March 2013 and the fourth within Hateg Basin, South Carpathians (October 2013. These sequences occurred within the epicentral areas of some strong historical earthquakes (Mw≥5.0. The main events had some macroseismic effects on people up to some few kilometers from the epicenters. Our results update the Romanian earthquakes catalogue and bring new information along the local seismic hazard sources models and seismotectonics.

  19. Discrimination, domestic violence, abuse, and other adverse life events in people with epilepsy: Population-based study to assess the burden of these events and their contribution to psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimmo-Smith, Victoria; Brugha, Traolach S; Kerr, Michael P; McManus, Sally; Rai, Dheeraj

    2016-11-01

    To quantify the experience of discrimination, domestic violence, abuse, and other stressful life events in people with epilepsy in comparison with the general population and people with other chronic conditions. To assess whether any excess relative burden of these adversities could explain the higher rates of depression in people with epilepsy. The Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007 used comprehensive interviews with 7,403 individuals living in private residences in England. Doctor-diagnosed epilepsy and other chronic conditions were established by self-report. Discrimination, domestic violence, physical and sexual abuse, and other stressful life events were assessed using computerized self-completion and a face-to-face interview, respectively. People with epilepsy were sevenfold more likely to have reported experiencing discrimination due to health problems (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-16.3), than the general population without epilepsy. This estimate was substantially greater in people with epilepsy than for people with other chronic conditions. People with epilepsy also had greater odds of experiencing domestic violence and sexual abuse than the general population, although these associations were also found in people with other chronic conditions. There was less evidence of an association between epilepsy and a history of physical abuse or having a greater burden of other stressful life events. In exploratory analyses, assuming they lie on the causal pathway, discrimination, domestic violence, and sexual abuse explained 42.7% of the total effect of the relationship between epilepsy and depression or anxiety disorders. People with epilepsy can face a range of psychosocial adversities and extensively report feeling discriminated against as compared to the general population. In addition, if confirmed in longitudinal studies, the results suggest that these psychosocial adversities may have a significant role in the

  20. Hanford annual first quarter seismic report, fiscal year 1998: Seismicity on and near the Hanford Site, Pasco Basin, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.; Rohay, A.C.

    1998-02-01

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of an earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the first quarter of FY98 for stations in the HSN was 98.5%. The operational rate for the first quarter of FY98 for stations of the EWRN was 99.1%. For the first quarter of FY98, the acquisition computer triggered 184 times. Of these triggers 23 were local earthquakes: 7 in the Columbia River Basalt Group, and 16 in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report. The most significant earthquakes in this quarter were a series of six events which occurred in the Cold Creek depression (approximately 4 km SW of the 200 West Area), between November 6 and November 11, 1997. All events were deep (> 15 km) and were located in the crystalline basement. The first event was the largest, having a magnitude of 3.49 M{sub c}. Two events on November 9, 1997 had magnitudes of 2.81 and 2.95 M{sub c}, respectively. The other events had magnitudes between 0.7 and 1.2 M{sub c}.

  1. Experimental study of seismic behaviour of electric equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buland, P.; Henry, J.Y.; Simon, D.

    1992-02-01

    Safety analysis of a nuclear power plant imposes taking into account a number of impacts both internal and external, seismic events being one of them. Approach taken for seismicity is deterministic and is based on keeping the safety margin on a high enough level concerning the impact. The objective is to ensure the integrity and proper functioning of the utility in spite of a seismic event. In order to achieve these objectives, design, construction and operation regulations are analysed. Seismic behaviour related to design and construction regulations is validated, in order to maintain the proposed approach

  2. Seismic Data Gathering and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Three recent earthquakes in the last seven years have exceeded their design basis earthquake values (so it is implied that damage to SSC’s should have occurred). These seismic events were recorded at North Anna (August 2011, detailed information provided in [Virginia Electric and Power Company Memo]), Fukushima Daichii and Daini (March 2011 [TEPCO 1]), and Kaswazaki-Kariwa (2007, [TEPCO 2]). However, seismic walk downs at some of these plants indicate that very little damage occurred to safety class systems and components due to the seismic motion. This report presents seismic data gathered for two of the three events mentioned above and recommends a path for using that data for two purposes. One purpose is to determine what margins exist in current industry standard seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) tools. The second purpose is the use the data to validated seismic site response tools and SSI tools. The gathered data represents free field soil and in-structure acceleration time histories data. Gathered data also includes elastic and dynamic soil properties and structural drawings. Gathering data and comparing with existing models has potential to identify areas of uncertainty that should be removed from current seismic analysis and SPRA approaches. Removing uncertainty (to the extent possible) from SPRA’s will allow NPP owners to make decisions on where to reduce risk. Once a realistic understanding of seismic response is established for a nuclear power plant (NPP) then decisions on needed protective measures, such as SI, can be made.

  3. Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2008-09-01

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The Hanford Seismic Assessment Team locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. For the Hanford Seismic Network, fourteen local earthquakes were recorded during the third quarter of fiscal year 2008. The largest event recorded by the network during the third quarter (May 18, 2008 - magnitude 3.7 Mc) was located approximately 17 km east of Prosser at a depth of 20.5 km. With regard to the depth distribution, five earthquakes occurred at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), six earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and three earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, eight earthquakes occurred in swarm areas and six earthquakes were classified as random events. The largest event recorded by the network during the third quarter occurred on May 18 (magnitude 3.7 Mc) and was located approximately 17 km east of Prosser at a depth of 20.5 km. This earthquake was the highest magnitude event recorded in the 46-47 N. latitude / 119-120 W. longitude sector since 1975

  4. Detection capability of the IMS seismic network based on ambient seismic noise measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebler, Peter J.; Ceranna, Lars

    2016-04-01

    All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection threshold can be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

  5. U-Th dating of broken speleothems from Cacahuamilpa cave, Mexico: Are they recording past seismic events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méjean, Pauline; Garduño-Monroy, Victor-Hugo; Pinti, Daniele L.; Ghaleb, Bassam; Bouvier, Laura; Gomez-Vasconcelos, Martha G.; Tremblay, Alain

    2015-01-01

    Cacahuamilpa cave is one of the largest karst systems in Central Mexico. The cave contains numerous massive speleothems broken and fallen following oriented directions, damaged during cataclysmic geological events. One fallen and two broken speleothems were sampled in the Cacahuamilpa cave for dating the rupture event using measured U-Th disequilibrium ages. A total of eight small carbonate cores were drilled perpendicular and longitudinal to the rupture surface. Results showed three groups of ages (weighted average): 0.95 ± 0.02 ka, 28.8 ± 0.2 ka and 88.0 ± 0.7 ka. This indicates that the construction of the Cacahuamilpa karst system, for which no absolute ages existed before this study, initiated at least since Late Pleistocene. The first two groups of ages might be related to two distinct episodes of intense seismic activity. Calculated minimum horizontal ground acceleration and frequency values of the seismic events needed to create the rupture of the stalagmites dated at 0.95 ± 0.02 ka and 28.8 ± 0.2 ka range between 1.3 and 2.0 m s-2 and between 13.4 and 20.8 Hz, respectively. These parameters are compatible with earthquakes of magnitude equal or higher than 7 M, with an epicentral distance between 50 and 100 km from the Cacahuamilpa cave. The stalagmite rupture dated at 88.0 ± 0.7 ka might result from the invasion of the cave by one of the older lahars deposits of the nearby volcano Nevado del Toluca, and successively fell by gravity instability.

  6. Final Technical Report, 30 SEPTEMBER 2002 - 31 JANUARY 2006; ENERGY PARTIONING FOR SEISMIC EVENTS IN FENNOSCANDIA AND NW RUSSIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bungum, H.; Kvaerna, T.; Larsen, S.

    2006-01-31

    In this project we have addressed the problem of energy partitioning at distances ranging from very local to regional for various kinds of seismic sources. On the local and regional scale (20-220 km) we have targeted events from the region offshore Western Norway where we have both natural earthquake activity as well as frequent occurrence of underwater explosions carried out by the Norwegian Navy. On the small scale we have focused on analysis of observations from an in-mine network of 16-18 sensors in the Pyhasalmi mine in central Finland. This analysis has been supplemented with 3-D finite difference wave propagation simulations in a realistic mine model to investigate the physical mechanisms that partition seismic energy in the near source region in and around the underground mine. The results from modeling and analysis of local and regional data show that mean S/P amplitude ratios for explosions and natural events differ at individual stations and are in general higher for natural events and frequency bands above 3 Hz. However, the distributions of S/P ratios for explosions and natural events overlap in all analyzed frequency bands. Thus, for individual events in our study area, S/P amplitude ratios can only assist the discrimination between an explosion or a natural event. This observation is supported by synthetic seismograms calculated for simple 1-D models which demonstrate that explosions also generate shear-wave energy if they are fired close to an interface with a strong material contrast (as is the case for most explosions), e.g., free surface or the ocean bottom. The larger difference in S/P ratios between earthquakes and explosions for higher frequencies can be explained by the fact that at low frequencies (larger wavelengths), discontinuities and structural heterogeneities in the explosion source region are stronger generators of converted S energy. The S*-phase, for example, is most efficiently generated whenever an explosion source is located

  7. Geological evidence of pre-2012 Emilia, Italy, seismic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Riccardo; Minarelli, Luca; Papathanassiou, Giorgos; Poli, Eliana M.; Rapti-Caputo, Dimitra; Sboras, Sotiris; Stefani, Marco; Zanferrari, Adriano

    2013-04-01

    In May 2012, two moderate (ML = 5.9 and 5.8) earthquakes, associated with a noticeable aftershock sequence, affected the eastern sector of the Po Plain, Italy. The causative faults are two segments of the Ferrara Arc thrust system representing the most frontal portion of the buried Northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt. Few weeks after the earthquake, a palaeoseismological trench was excavated south of the San Carlo village (western Ferrara Province), where a system of aligned ground ruptures were observed. In the trench walls we observed several features documenting the occurrence of past liquefaction events affecting the same site. For example, i) 10 cm-thick dikes filled with injected sand and associated with vertical displacements have no correspondence with the fractures mapped at the surface before the excavation; ii) some thick dikes are arrested below the ploughed level or even by older sedimentary layers; iii) along the internal slope of the palaeo-channel exposed by the trench, load structures and slided blocks are observed; iv) in correspondence with the ground fractures characterised by vertical displacement and opening occurred during the 2012 earthquake and thick dikes, observed at the surface and in the trench's walls, respectively, sand and water ejection did not occur. In conclusion, the results of the palaeoseismological investigation document for the first time that shacking (i.e. seismic) events occurred in the past producing a sufficient ground motion capable of triggering liquefaction phenomena prior to, but likely stronger than, the May 2012 earthquake. A likely candidate is the November 17, 1570 Ferrara earthquake.

  8. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR: status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, T.Y.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Wells, J.E.; Johnson, J.J.

    1985-02-01

    The seismic risk methodology developed in the US NRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR). A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models was developed and analyzed. The SSMRP methodology can equally be applied to a boiling water reactor (BWR). To demonstrate its applicability, to identify fundamental differences in seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR, and to provide a basis of comparison of seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR when analyzed with comparable methodology and assumptions, a seismic risk analysis is being performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant

  9. A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

    2017-08-01

    The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

  10. Long-period seismicity reveals magma pathways above a laterally propagating dyke during the 2014-15 Bárðarbunga rifting event, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Jennifer; Donaldson, Clare; White, Robert S.; Caudron, Corentin; Brandsdóttir, Bryndís; Hudson, Thomas S.; Ágústsdóttir, Thorbjörg

    2018-05-01

    The 2014-15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun rifting event comprised the best-monitored dyke intrusion to date and the largest eruption in Iceland in 230 years. A huge variety of seismicity was produced, including over 30,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) associated with the dyke propagation at ∼6 km depth below sea level, and large-magnitude earthquakes accompanying the collapse of Bárðarbunga caldera. We here study the long-period seismicity associated with the rifting event. We systematically detect and locate both long-period events (LPs) and tremor during the dyke propagation phase and the first week of the eruption. We identify clusters of highly similar, repetitive LPs, which have a peak frequency of ∼1 Hz and clear P and S phases followed by a long-duration coda. The source mechanisms are remarkably consistent between clusters and also fundamentally different to those of the VTs. We accurately locate LP clusters near each of three ice cauldrons (depressions formed by basal melting) that were observed on the surface of Dyngjujökull glacier above the path of the dyke. Most events are in the vicinity of the northernmost cauldron, at shallower depth than the VTs associated with lateral dyke propagation. At the two northerly cauldrons, periods of shallow seismic tremor following the clusters of LPs are also observed. Given that the LPs occur at ∼4 km depth and in swarms during times of dyke-stalling, we infer that they result from excitation of magmatic fluid-filled cavities and indicate magma ascent. We suggest that the tremor is the climax of the vertical melt movement, arising from either rapid, repeated excitation of the same LP cavities, or sub-glacial eruption processes. This long-period seismicity therefore represents magma pathways between the depth of the dyke-VT earthquakes and the surface. Notably, we do not detect tremor associated with each cauldron, despite melt reaching the base of the overlying ice cap, a concern for hazard monitoring.

  11. Rockfall induced seismic signals: case study in Montserrat, Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilajosana, I.; Suriñach, E.; Abellán, A.; Khazaradze, G.; Garcia, D.; Llosa, J.

    2008-08-01

    After a rockfall event, a usual post event survey includes qualitative volume estimation, trajectory mapping and determination of departing zones. However, quantitative measurements are not usually made. Additional relevant quantitative information could be useful in determining the spatial occurrence of rockfall events and help us in quantifying their size. Seismic measurements could be suitable for detection purposes since they are non invasive methods and are relatively inexpensive. Moreover, seismic techniques could provide important information on rockfall size and location of impacts. On 14 February 2007 the Avalanche Group of the University of Barcelona obtained the seismic data generated by an artificially triggered rockfall event at the Montserrat massif (near Barcelona, Spain) carried out in order to purge a slope. Two 3 component seismic stations were deployed in the area about 200 m from the explosion point that triggered the rockfall. Seismic signals and video images were simultaneously obtained. The initial volume of the rockfall was estimated to be 75 m3 by laser scanner data analysis. After the explosion, dozens of boulders ranging from 10-4 to 5 m3 in volume impacted on the ground at different locations. The blocks fell down onto a terrace, 120 m below the release zone. The impact generated a small continuous mass movement composed of a mixture of rocks, sand and dust that ran down the slope and impacted on the road 60 m below. Time, time-frequency evolution and particle motion analysis of the seismic records and seismic energy estimation were performed. The results are as follows: 1 A rockfall event generates seismic signals with specific characteristics in the time domain; 2 the seismic signals generated by the mass movement show a time-frequency evolution different from that of other seismogenic sources (e.g. earthquakes, explosions or a single rock impact). This feature could be used for detection purposes; 3 particle motion plot analysis shows

  12. Patterns of Seismicity Associated with USGS Identified Areas of Potentially Induced Seismicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Caitlin; Halihan, Todd

    2018-03-13

    A systematic review across U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified potentially induced seismic locations was conducted to discover seismic distance patterns and trends over time away from injection disposal wells. Previous research indicates a 10 km (6 miles) average where the majority of induced seismicity is expected to occur within individual locations, with some areas reporting a larger radius of 35 km (22 miles) to over 70 km (43 miles). This research analyzed earthquake occurrences within nine USGS locations where specified wells were identified as contributors to induced seismicity to determine distance patterns from disposal wells or outward seismic migration over time using established principles of hydrogeology. Results indicate a radius of 31.6 km (20 miles) where 90% of felt earthquakes occur among locations, with the closest proximal felt seismic events, on average, occurring 3 km (1.9 miles) away from injection disposal wells. The results of this research found distance trends across multiple locations of potentially induced seismicity. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  13. Estimation of finite seismic source parameters for selected events of the West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr; Růžek, Bohuslav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 2 (2015), s. 403-421 ISSN 1383-4649 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/10/1728 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases * stress drop Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

  14. Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Devary, Joseph L.; Hartshorn, Donald C.

    2010-12-27

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During FY 2010, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded 873 triggers on the seismometer system, which included 259 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 324 regional and teleseismic events. There were 210 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. One hundred and fifty-five earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this fiscal year were a continuation of the swarm events observed during fiscal year 2009 and reported in previous quarterly and annual reports (Rohay et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, 2010a, 2010b, and 2010c). Most events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with the largest event recorded on February 4, 2010 (3.0Mc). The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging approximately 1.5 km deep) placing the swarm within the Columbia River Basalt Group. Based upon the last two quarters (Q3 and Q4) data, activity at the Wooded Island

  15. Tools for educational access to seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, J. J.; Welti, R.; Bravo, T. K.; Hubenthal, M.; Frechette, K.

    2017-12-01

    Student engagement can be increased both by providing easy access to real data, and by addressing newsworthy events such as recent large earthquakes. IRIS EPO has a suite of access and visualization tools that can be used for such engagement, including a set of three tools that allow students to explore global seismicity, use seismic data to determine Earth structure, and view and analyze near-real-time ground motion data in the classroom. These tools are linked to online lessons that are designed for use in middle school through introductory undergraduate classes. The IRIS Earthquake Browser allows discovery of key aspects of plate tectonics, earthquake locations (in pseudo 3D) and seismicity rates and patterns. IEB quickly displays up to 20,000 seismic events over up to 30 years, making it one of the most responsive, practical ways to visualize historical seismicity in a browser. Maps are bookmarkable and preserve state, meaning IEB map links can be shared or worked into a lesson plan. The Global Seismogram Plotter automatically creates visually clear seismic record sections from selected large earthquakes that are tablet-friendly and can also to be printed for use in a classroom without computers. The plots are designed to be appropriate for use with no parameters to set, but users can also modify the plots, such as including a recording station near a chosen location. A guided exercise is provided where students use the record section to discover the diameter of Earth's outer core. Students can pick and compare phase arrival times onscreen which is key to performing the exercise. A companion station map shows station locations and further information and is linked to the record section. jAmaSeis displays seismic data in real-time from either a local instrument and/or from remote seismic stations that stream data using standard seismic data protocols, and can be used in the classroom or as a public display. Users can filter data, fit a seismogram to travel time

  16. Analysis of the effects of corrosion probe on riser 241-AN-102-WST-16 during seismic event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZIADA, H.H.

    1998-01-01

    This analysis supports the installation activity of the corrosion probe in Tank 241-AN-102. The probe is scheduled to be installed in Riser 241-AN-102-WST-16 (formerly known as Riser 15B). The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the potential effect of the corrosion probe on the riser during a credible seismic event. The previous analysis (HNF 1997a) considered only pump jet impingement loading

  17. An experimental overview of the seismic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnuolo, E.; Violay, M.; Passelegue, F. X.; Nielsen, S. B.; Di Toro, G.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake nucleation is the last stage of the inter-seismic cycle where the fault surface evolves through the interplay of friction, healing, stress perturbations and strain events. Slip stability under rate-and state friction has been extensively discussed in terms of loading point velocity and equivalent fault stiffness, but fault evolution towards seismic runaway under complex loading histories (e.g. slow variations of tectonic stress, stress transfer from impulsive nearby seismic events) is not yet fully investigated. Nevertheless, the short term earthquake forecasting is based precisely on a relation between seismic productivity and loading history which remains up to date still largely unresolved. To this end we propose a novel experimental approach which avails of a closed loop control of the shear stress, a nominally infinite equivalent slip and transducers for continuous monitoring of acoustic emissions. This experimental simulation allows us to study the stress dependency and temporal evolution of spontaneous slip events occurring on a pre-existing fault subjected to different loading histories. The experimental fault has an initial roughness which mimic a population of randomly distributed asperities, which here are used as a proxy for patches which are either far or close to failure on an extended fault. Our observations suggest that the increase of shear stress may trigger either spontaneous slow slip (creep) or short-lived stick-slip bursts, eventually leading to a fast slip instability (seismic runaway) when slip rates are larger than a few cm/s. The event type and the slip rate are regulated at first order by the background shear stress whereas the ultimate strength of the entire fault is dominated by the number of asperities close to failure under a stress step. The extrapolation of these results to natural conditions might explain the plethora of events that often characterize seismic sequences. Nonetheless this experimental approach helps the

  18. IAEA establishes International Seismic Safety Centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The IAEA today officially inaugurated an international centre to coordinate efforts for protecting nuclear installations against the effects of earthquakes. The International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC), which has been established within the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, will serve as a focal point on seismic safety for nuclear installations worldwide. ISSC will assist countries on the assessment of seismic hazards of nuclear facilities to mitigate the consequences of strong earthquakes. 'With safety as our first priority, it is vital that we pool all expert knowledge available worldwide to assist nuclear operators and regulators to be well prepared for coping with major seismic events,' said Antonio Godoy, Acting Head of the IAEA's Engineering Safety Section and leader of the ISSC. 'The creation of the ISSC represents the culmination of three decades of the IAEA's active and recognized involvement in this matter through the development of an updated set of safety standards and the assistance to Member States for their application.' To further seismic safety at nuclear installations worldwide, the ISSC will: - Promote knowledge sharing among the international community in order to avoid or mitigate the consequences of extreme seismic events on nuclear installations; - Support countries through advisory services and training courses; and - Enhance seismic safety by utilizing experience gained from previous seismic events in member states. The centre is supported by a scientific committee of high-level experts from academic, industrial and nuclear safety authorities that will advise the ISSC on implementation of its programme. Experts have been nominated from seven specialized areas, including geology and tectonics, seismology, seismic hazard, geotechnical engineering, structural engineering, equipment, and seismic risk. Japan and the United States have both contributed initial funds for creation of the centre, which will be based at

  19. Post-seismic relaxation from geodetic and seismic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Rodkin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We have examined the aftershock sequence and the post-seismic deformation process of the Parkfield earthquake (2004, M = 6, California, USA source area using GPS data. This event was chosen because of the possibility of joint analysis of data from the rather dense local GPS network (from SOPAC Internet archive and of the availability of the rather detailed aftershock sequence data (http://www.ncedc.org/ncedc/catalog-search.html. The relaxation process of post-seismic deformation prolongs about the same 400 days as the seismic aftershock process does. Thus, the aftershock process and the relaxation process in deformation could be the different sides of the same process. It should be noted that the ratio of the released seismic energy and of the GPS obtained deformation is quite different for the main shock and for the aftershock stage. The ratio of the released seismic energy to the deformation value decreases essentially for the post-shock process. The similar change in the seismic energy/deformation value ratio is valid in a few other strong earthquakes. Thus, this decrease seems typical of aftershock sequences testifying for decrease of ratio of elastic to inelastic deformation in the process of post-shock relaxation when the source area appears to be mostly fractured after the main shock occurs, but the healing process had no yet sufficient time to develop.

  20. Improved Seismic Acquisition System and Data Processing for the Italian National Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badiali, L.; Marcocci, C.; Mele, F.; Piscini, A.

    2001-12-01

    A new system for acquiring and processing digital signals has been developed in the last few years at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The system makes extensive use of the internet communication protocol standards such as TCP and UDP which are used as the transport highway inside the Italian network, and possibly in a near future outside, to share or redirect data among processes. The Italian National Seismic Network has been working for about 18 years equipped with vertical short period seismometers and transmitting through analog lines, to the computer center in Rome. We are now concentrating our efforts on speeding the migration towards a fully digital network based on about 150 stations equipped with either broad band or 5 seconds sensors connected to the data center partly through wired digital communication and partly through satellite digital communication. The overall process is layered through intranet and/or internet. Every layer gathers data in a simple format and provides data in a processed format, ready to be distributed towards the next layer. The lowest level acquires seismic data (raw waveforms) coming from the remote stations. It handshakes, checks and sends data in LAN or WAN according to a distribution list where other machines with their programs are waiting for. At the next level there are the picking procedures, or "pickers", on a per instrument basis, looking for phases. A picker spreads phases, again through the LAN or WAN and according to a distribution list, to one or more waiting locating machines tuned to generate a seismic event. The event locating procedure itself, the higher level in this stack, can exchange information with other similar procedures. Such a layered and distributed structure with nearby targets allows other seismic networks to join the processing and data collection of the same ongoing event, creating a virtual network larger than the original one. At present we plan to cooperate with other

  1. Geothermal Induced Seismicity National Environmental Policy Act Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cook, Jeffrey J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beckers, Koenraad J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-04

    In 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) contracted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assist the BLM in developing and building upon tools to better understand and evaluate induced seismicity caused by geothermal projects. This review of NEPA documents for four geothermal injection or EGS projects reveals the variety of approaches to analyzing and mitigating induced seismicity. With the exception of the Geysers, where induced seismicity has been observed and monitored for an extended period of time due to large volumes of water being piped in to recharge the hydrothermal reservoir, induced seismicity caused by geothermal projects is a relative new area of study. As this review highlights, determining the level of mitigation required for induced seismic events has varied based on project location, when the review took place, whether the project utilized the International Energy Agency or DOE IS protocols, and the federal agency conducting the review. While the NEPA reviews were relatively consistent for seismic monitoring and historical evaluation of seismic events near the project location, the requirements for public outreach and mitigation for induced seismic events once stimulation has begun varied considerably between the four projects. Not all of the projects were required to notify specific community groups or local government entities before beginning the project, and only one of the reviews specifically stated the project proponent would hold meetings with the public to answer questions or address concerns.

  2. Field investigation of mining-induced seismicity on local geohydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsiung, S.M.; Chowdhury, A.H.; Philip, J.; Blake, W.

    1993-01-01

    Hydraulic response of the rock mass due to earthquakes is one of the concerns in the assessment of the long-term performance of a repository. Studies performed by other researchers indicated no systematic difference between natural earthquakes and mining-induced seismic events. The purpose of this field study at the Lucky Friday Mine is intended to obtain a better understanding regarding the local geohydrologic changes due to mining-induced seismicity and to evaluate analytical methods for simulation of these changes. Three saturated zones with faults and vein features were packed-off along a borehole drilled at approximately 20 degrees downward in a southerly direction from a depth about 1,737 m (5,700 ft) below surface for water pressure monitoring. The response of water pressure change to mine seismicity is found to be more pronounced in Zone 3, which contains the Lucky Friday Main Vein, than Zone 2, with the South Control Fault, and Zone 1, with the associated fractures parallel to the South Control Fault. The maximum observed pressure increase in Zone 3 was about 1.53 x 10 -2 MPa (2.22 psi) due to a seismic event of Richter drops in Zone 1 resulting from a number of seismic events are suspected to be related to slips along the associated fractures of the South Control Fault, or the South Control Fault itself, which initiated the seismic events. Water pressure increase in Zone 3 was found to be a function of event magnitude and distance

  3. Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

    2001-01-01

    1. To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. 2. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probabilities (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. 3. The use of some very high values for the seismic accelerations imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very expensive technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase the maintenance costs. 4. The consideration of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The method is useful for two purposes: a) research, i.e. homogenizing the history data basis by the generation of earthquakes during periods lacking information and correlation of the information with the existing information. The aim is to perform the hazard analysis using a homogeneous data set in order to determine the seismic design data for a site; b) operation, i.e. the performance of a prognosis on the seismic activity on a certain site and consideration of preventive measures to minimize the possible effects of an earthquake. 5. The paper proposes the application of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects Cernavoda NPP site by this method. 6. The paper also presents the

  4. Influence of LOD variations on seismic energy release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riguzzi, F.; Krumm, F.; Wang, K.; Kiszely, M.; Varga, P.

    2009-04-01

    Tidal friction causes significant time variations of geodynamical parameters, among them geometrical flattening. The axial despinning of the Earth due to tidal friction through the change of flattening generates incremental meridional and azimuthal stresses. The stress pattern in an incompressible elastic upper mantle and crust is symmetric to the equator and has its inflection points at the critical latitude close to ±45°. Consequently the distribution of seismic energy released by strong, shallow focus earthquakes should have also sharp maxima at this latitude. To investigate the influence of length of day (LOD) variations on earthquake activity an earthquake catalogue of strongest seismic events (M>7.0) was completed for the period 1900-2007. It is shown with the use of this catalogue that for the studied time-interval the catalogue is complete and consists of the seismic events responsible for more than 90% of released seismic energy. Study of the catalogue for earthquakes M>7.0 shows that the seismic energy discharged by the strongest seismic events has significant maxima at ±45°, what renders probably that the seismic activity of our planet is influenced by an external component, i.e. by the tidal friction, which acts through the variation of the hydrostatic figure of the Earth caused by it. Distribution along the latitude of earthquake numbers and energies was investigated also for the case of global linear tectonic structures, such as mid ocean ridges and subduction zones. It can be shown that the number of the shallow focus shocks has a repartition along the latitude similar to the distribution of the linear tectonic structures. This means that the position of foci of seismic events is mainly controlled by the tectonic activity.

  5. Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2009-12-31

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During FY 2009, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded nearly 3000 triggers on the seismometer system, which included over 1700 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 370 regional and teleseismic events. There were 1648 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. Recording of the Wooded Island events began in January with over 250 events per month through June 2009. The frequency of events decreased starting in July 2009 to approximately 10-15 events per month through September 2009. Most of the events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with 47 events in the 2.0-3.0 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 2.3 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The highest-magnitude event (3.0Mc

  6. Scram reliability under seismic conditions at the Experimental Breeder Reactor II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roglans, J.; Wang, C.Y.; Hill, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II has recently been completed. Seismic events are among the external initiating events included in the assessment. As part of the seismic PRA a detailed study has been performed of the ability to shutdown the reactor under seismic conditions. A comprehensive finite element model of the EBR-II control rod drive system has been used to analyze the control rod system response when subjected to input seismic accelerators. The results indicate the control rod drive system has a high seismic capacity. The estimated seismic fragility for the overall reactor shutdown system is dominated by the primary tank failure

  7. Severity Classification of a Seismic Event based on the Magnitude-Distance Ratio Using Only One Seismological Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Hernán Ochoa Gutiérrez

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Seismic event characterization is often accomplished using algorithms based only on information received at seismological stations located closest to the particular event, while ignoring historical data received at those stations. These historical data are stored and unseen at this stage. This characterization process can delay the emergency response, costing valuable time in the mitigation of the adverse effects on the affected population. Seismological stations have recorded data during many events that have been characterized by classical methods, and these data can be used as previous "knowledge" to train such stations to recognize patterns. This knowledge can be used to make faster characterizations using only one three-component broadband station by applying bio-inspired algorithms or recently developed stochastic methods, such as kernel methods. We trained a Support Vector Machine (SVM algorithm with seismograph data recorded by INGEOMINAS's National Seismological Network at a three-component station located near Bogota, Colombia. As input model descriptors, we used the following: (1 the integral of the Fourier transform/power spectrum for each component, divided into 7 windows of 2 seconds and beginning at the P onset time, and (2 the ratio between the calculated logarithm of magnitude (Mb and epicentral distance. We used 986 events with magnitudes greater than 3 recorded from late 2003 to 2008. The algorithm classifies events with magnitude-distance ratios (a measure of the severity of possible damage caused by an earthquake greater than a background value. This value can be used to estimate the magnitude based on a known epicentral distance, which is calculated from the difference between P and S onset times. This rapid (< 20 seconds magnitude estimate can be used for rapid response strategies. The results obtained in this work confirm that many hypocentral parameters and a rapid location of a seismic event can be obtained using a few

  8. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

  9. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2008-06-26

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The Hanford Seismic Assessment Team locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. For the Hanford Seismic Network, seven local earthquakes were recorded during the second quarter of fiscal year 2008. The largest event recorded by the network during the second quarter (February 3, 2008 - magnitude 2.3 Mc) was located northeast of Richland in Franklin County at a depth of 22.5 km. With regard to the depth distribution, two earthquakes occurred at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), three earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and two earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, five earthquakes occurred in swarm areas and two earthquakes were classified as random events.

  10. Discrimination between underground explosions and earthquakes using discriminant functions: Examples for Eurasia and North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowroozi, A.A.

    1986-01-01

    Discriminant functions are extensively used as a technical tool in educational and psychological research as well as in some branches of geological sciences. The application of this technique to the problem of discrimination between underground nuclear explosions and earthquakes has been reported. Here we apply this technique to a known population of underground nuclear explosions and earthquakes for the determination of various statistical parameters needed for setting up the discriminant function equations for discrimination between unknown population of earthquakes, anomalous events, and underground explosions, then we classify earthquakes, explosions and anomalous events in Eurasia and North America

  11. Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

    2007-05-01

    Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

  12. Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2009-09-30

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 771 local earthquakes during the third quarter of FY 2009. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this quarter is a continuation of the swarm events observed during the January – March 2009 time period and reported in the previous quarterly report (Rohay et al, 2009). The frequency of Wooded Island events has subsided with 16 events recorded during June 2009. Most of the events were considered minor (magnitude (Mc) less than 1.0) with 25 events in the 2.0-3.0 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 2.2 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude of the Wooded Island events has made them undetectable to all but local area residents. However, some Hanford employees working within a few miles of the area of highest activity

  13. NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure

  14. GSETT-3: testing the experimental international seismic monitoring system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringdal, Frode

    1995-01-01

    Global seismic monitoring system has been developed by the Conference on Disarmaments (CDs) ad hoc group of scientific experts to consider international cooperative measures to detect and identify seismic events (the GSE), based in Geneva. In the course of its work, the GSE has conducted two large-scale global technical tests, Global Seismic Events Technical Test-1 (GSETT-1) in 1984 and GSETT-2 in 1991. The GSE has now embarked upon its third and most ambitious technical test, GSETT-3, which will encompass the development, testing and evaluation of a working prototype of the eventual Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) seismic monitoring system

  15. Selecting the seismic HRA approach for Savannah River Plant PRA revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papouchado, K.; Salaymeh, J.

    1993-10-01

    The Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) has prepared a level I probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), Rev. 0 of reactor operations for externally-initiated events including seismic events. The SRS PRA, Rev. 0 Seismic HRA received a critical review that expressed skepticism with the approach used for human reliability analysis because it had not been previously used and accepted in other published PRAs. This report provides a review of published probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), the associated methodology guidance documents, and the psychological literature to identify parameters important to seismic human reliability analysis (HRA). It also describes a recommended approach for use in the Savannah River Site (SRS) PRA. The SRS seismic event PRA performs HRA to account for the contribution of human errors in the accident sequences. The HRA of human actions during and after a seismic event is an area subject to many uncertainties and involves significant analyst judgment. The approach recommended by this report is based on seismic HRA methods and associated issues and concerns identified from the review of these referenced documents that represent the current state-of-the- art knowledge and acceptance in the seismic HRA field

  16. Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

    2017-08-01

    We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

  17. Global imaging of the Earth's deep interior: seismic constraints on (an)isotropy, density and attenuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trampert, J.; Fichtner, A.

    2013-01-01

    Seismic tomography is the principal tool to probe the deep interior of the Earth. Models of seismic anisotropy induced by crystal alignment provide insight into the underlying convective motion, and variations of density allow us to discriminate between thermal and compositional heterogeneities.

  18. Estimation of core-damage frequency to evolutionary ALWR [advanced light water reactor] due to seismic initiating events: Task 4.3.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, R.D.; Harrison, D.G.; Summitt, R.L.

    1990-04-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is presently developing a requirements document for the design of advanced light water reactors (ALWRs). One of the basic goals of the EPRI ALWR Requirements Document is that the core-damage frequency for an ALWR shall be less than 1.0E-5. To aid in this effort, the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Severe Accident Program (ARSAP) initiated a functional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine how effectively the evolutionary plant requirements contained in the existing EPRI Requirements Document assure that this safety goal will be met. This report develops an approximation of the core-damage frequency due to seismic events for both evolutionary plant designs (pressurized-water reactor (PWR) and boiling-water reactor(BWR)) as modeled in the corresponding functional PRAs. Component fragility values were taken directly form information which has been submitted for inclusion in Appendix A to Volume 1 of the EPRI Requirements Document. The results show a seismic core-damage frequency of 5.2E-6 for PWRS and 5.0E-6 for BWRs. Combined with the internal initiators from the functional PRAs, the overall core-damage frequencies are 6.0E-6 for the pwr and BWR, both of which satisfy the 1.0E-5 EPRI goal. In addition, site-specific considerations, such as more rigid components and less conservative fragility data and seismic hazard curves, may further reduce these frequencies. The effect of seismic events on structures are not addressed in this generic evaluation and should be addressed separately on a design-specific basis. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Improving the Detectability of the Catalan Seismic Network for Local Seismic Activity Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jara, Jose Antonio; Frontera, Tànit; Batlló, Josep; Goula, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    The seismic survey of the territory of Catalonia is mainly performed by the regional seismic network operated by the Cartographic and Geologic Institute of Catalonia (ICGC). After successive deployments and upgrades, the current network consists of 16 permanent stations equipped with 3 component broadband seismometers (STS2, STS2.5, CMG3ESP and CMG3T), 24 bits digitizers (Nanometrics Trident) and VSAT telemetry. Data are continuously sent in real-time via Hispasat 1D satellite to the ICGC datacenter in Barcelona. Additionally, data from other 10 stations of neighboring areas (Spain, France and Andorra) are continuously received since 2011 via Internet or VSAT, contributing both to detect and to locate events affecting the region. More than 300 local events with Ml ≥ 0.7 have been yearly detected and located in the region. Nevertheless, small magnitude earthquakes, especially those located in the south and south-west of Catalonia may still go undetected by the automatic detection system (DAS), based on Earthworm (USGS). Thus, in order to improve the detection and characterization of these missed events, one or two new stations should be installed. Before making the decision about where to install these new stations, the performance of each existing station is evaluated taking into account the fraction of detected events using the station records, compared to the total number of events in the catalogue, occurred during the station operation time from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014. These evaluations allow us to build an Event Detection Probability Map (EDPM), a required tool to simulate EDPMs resulting from different network topology scenarios depending on where these new stations are sited, and becoming essential for the decision-making process to increase and optimize the event detection probability of the seismic network.

  20. First Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2011-03-31

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 16 local earthquakes during the first quarter of FY 2011. Six earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km), seven earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km), most likely in the pre-basalt sediments, and three earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the basement. Geographically, thirteen earthquakes were located in known swarm areas and three earthquakes were classified as random events. The highest magnitude event (1.8 Mc) was recorded on October 19, 2010 at depth 17.5 km with epicenter located near the Yakima River between the Rattlesnake Mountain and Horse Heaven Hills swarm areas.

  1. Seismic Fracture Characterization Methodologies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Queen, John H. [Hi-Geophysical, Inc., Ponca, OK (United States)

    2016-05-09

    effective seismic tools for getting information on the internal structure of faults and fractures in support of fluid flow pathway management and EGS treatment. Scattered events similar to those expected from faults and fractures are seen in the VSP reported here. Unfortunately, the source offset and well depth coverage do not allow for detailed analysis of these events. This limited coverage also precluded the use of advanced migration and imaging algorithms. More extensive acquisition is needed to support fault and fracture characterization in the geothermal reservoir at Brady's Hot Springs. The VSP was effective in generating interval velocity estimates over the depths covered by the array. Upgoing reflection events are also visible in the VSP results at locations corresponding to reflection events in the surface seismic. Overall, the high temperature rated fiber optic sensors used in the VSP produced useful results. Modeling has been found useful in the interpretation of both surface reflection seismic and VSP data. It has helped identify possible near surface scattering in the surface seismic data. It has highlighted potential scattering events from deeper faults in the VSP data. Inclusion of more detailed fault and fracture specific stiffness parameters are needed to fully interpret fault and fracture scattered events for flow properties (Pyrak-Nolte and Morris, 2000, Zhu and Snieder, 2002). Shear wave methods were applied in both the surface seismic reflection and VSP work. They were not found to be effective in the Brady's Hot Springs area. This was due to the extreme attenuation of shear waves in the near surface at Brady's. This does not imply that they will be ineffective in general. In geothermal areas where good shear waves can be recorded, modeling suggests they should be very useful for characterizing faults and fractures.

  2. Seismic component fragility data base for IPEEE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.

    1990-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment or a seismic margin study will require a reliable data base of seismic fragility of various equipment classes. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has selected a group of equipment and generically evaluated the seismic fragility of each equipment class by use of existing test data. This paper briefly discusses the evaluation methodology and the fragility results. The fragility analysis results when used in the Individual Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE) Program for nuclear power plants are expected to provide insights into seismic vulnerabilities of equipment for earthquakes beyond the design basis. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  3. Time dynamics in the point process modeling of seismicity of Aswan area (Egypt)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telesca, Luciano; Mohamed, Abuo El-Ela Amin; ElGabry, Mohamed; El-hady, Sherif; Abou Elenean, Kamal M.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Time dynamics of shallow Aswan seismic events are time-clusterized. ► Super-Poissonian behavior characterizes shallow and deep events. ► Shallow seismicity shows a cycle at about 402 days. - Abstract: The seismicity observed in the Aswan area (Egypt) between 1986 and 2003 was deeply investigated by means of time-fractal methods. The time dynamics of the aftershock-depleted seismicity, investigated by means of the Allan Factor, reveals that the time-clustering behavior for events occurred at shallow depths (down to 12.5 km from the ground) as well as for events occurred at larger depths (from 15 km down to 27.5 km) does not depend on the ordering of the interevent times but mainly on the shape of the probability density functions of the interevent intervals. Moreover, deep seismicity is more compatible with a Poissonian dynamics than shallow seismicity that is definitely more super-Poissonian. Additionally, the set of shallow events shows a periodicity at about 402 days, which could be consistent with the cyclic loading/unloading operations of the Lake Naser Dam. Such findings contribute to better characterize the seismicity of the Aswan area, which is one of the most interesting water reservoirs in the world, featured by reservoir-induced earthquakes.

  4. Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

  5. The Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB) for the IMS Seismic Network Spaning the Period May 15-28, 2010: a New Resource for Algorithm Development and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, R.; Young, C. J.; Ballard, S.

    2017-12-01

    A major problem with developing new data processing algorithms for seismic event monitoring is the lack of standard, high-quality "ground-truth" data sets to test against. The unfortunate effect of this is that new algorithms are often developed and tested with new data sets, making comparison of algorithms difficult and subjective. In an effort towards resolving this problem, we have developed the Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB), a ground-truth data set from the International Monitoring System (IMS) primary and auxiliary seismic networks for a two-week period in May 2010. All UEB analysis was performed by the same expert, who has more than 30 years of experience analyzing seismic data for nuclear explosion monitoring. We used the most complete International Data Centre (IDC) analyst-review event bulletin (the Late Event Bulletin or LEB) as a starting point for this analysis. To make the UEB more complete, we relaxed the minimum event definite criteria to the level of a pair of P-type and an S-type phases at a single station and using azimuth/slowness as defining. To add even more events that our analyst recognized and didn't want to omit, in rare cases, events were constructed using only 1 P-phase. Perhaps most importantly, on average our analyst spent more than 60 hours per day of data, far more than was possible in the production of the LEB. The result of all this was that while the LEB had 2,101 LEB events for the 2-week time period, we ended up with 11,435 events in the UEB, an increase of over 400%. New events are located all over the world and include both earthquakes and manmade events such as mining explosions. Our intent is to make our UEB data set openly available for all researchers to use for testing detection, correlation, and location algorithms, thus making it much easier to objectively compare different research efforts. Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and

  6. The forecast of mining-induced seismicity and the consequent risk of damage to the excavation in the area of seismic event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Drzewiecki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Central Mining Institute has developed a method for forecasting the amount of seismic energy created by tremors induced by mining operations. The results of geophysical measurements of S wave velocity anomalies in a rock mass or the results of analytic calculations of the values of pressure on the horizon of the elastic layers are used in the process of calculating the energy. The calculation program which has been developed and adopted has been modified over recent years and it now enables not only the prediction of the energy of dynamic phenomena induced by mining but also the forecasting of the devastating range of seismic shock. The results obtained from this calculation, usually presented in a more readable graphic form, are useful for the macroscopic evaluation of locations that are potential sources of seismic energy. Forecasting of the maximum energy of seismic shock without prior knowledge of the location of the shock's source, does not allow shock attenuation that results from, for example, a distance of tremor source from the excavation which will be affected by seismic energy, to be taken into consideration. The phenomena of energy dissipation, which is taken into account in the forecasts, create a new quality of assessment of threat to the excavation. The paper presents the principle of a method of forecasting the seismic energy of a shock and the risk of damage to the excavation as a result of the impact of its energy wave. The solution assumes that the source of the energy shock is a resilient layer in which the sum of the gravitational stresses, resulting from natural disturbances and those induced by the conducted or planned mining exploitation, is estimated. The proposed solution assumes a spherical model for the tremor source, for which seismic energy is forecasted as a function of the longwall advance and the elementary value of seismic energy destroying the excavation. Subsequently, the following are calculated for the

  7. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2010-06-30

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 90 local earthquakes during the second quarter of FY 2010. Eighty-one of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this quarter were a continuation of the swarm events observed during the 2009 and 2010 fiscal years and reported in previous quarterly and annual reports (Rohay et al; 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, and 2010). Most of the events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with only 1 event in the 2.0-3.0 range; the maximum magnitude event (3.0 Mc) occurred February 4, 2010 at depth 2.4 km. The average depth of the Wooded Island events during the quarter was 1.6 km with a maximum depth estimated at 3.5 km. This placed the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude of the Wooded Island events has made them undetectable to all but local area residents. The Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometer (SMA) network was triggered several times

  8. Bayesian Inference for Signal-Based Seismic Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) is a system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of recent geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a global network of stations. We demonstrate recent progress in scaling up SIG-VISA to efficiently process the data stream of global signals recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS), including comparisons against existing processing methods that show increased sensitivity from our signal-based model and in particular the ability to locate events (including aftershock sequences that can tax analyst processing) precisely from waveform correlation effects. We also provide a Bayesian analysis of an alleged low-magnitude event near the DPRK test site in May 2010 [1] [2], investigating whether such an event could plausibly be detected through automated processing in a signal-based monitoring system. [1] Zhang, Miao and Wen, Lianxing. "Seismological Evidence for a Low-Yield Nuclear Test on 12 May 2010 in North Korea". Seismological Research Letters, January/February 2015. [2] Richards, Paul. "A Seismic Event in North Korea on 12 May 2010". CTBTO SnT 2015 oral presentation, video at https://video-archive.ctbto.org/index.php/kmc/preview/partner_id/103/uiconf_id/4421629/entry_id/0_ymmtpps0/delivery/http

  9. Intelligence and P3 Components of the Event-Related Potential Elicited during an Auditory Discrimination Task with Masking

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Pascalis, V.; Varriale, V.; Matteoli, A.

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between fluid intelligence (indexed by scores on Raven Progressive Matrices) and auditory discrimination ability was examined by recording event-related potentials from 48 women during the performance of an auditory oddball task with backward masking. High ability (HA) subjects exhibited shorter response times, greater response…

  10. Features, Events, and Processes: Disruptive Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. King

    2004-03-31

    The primary purpose of this analysis is to evaluate seismic- and igneous-related features, events, and processes (FEPs). These FEPs represent areas of natural system processes that have the potential to produce disruptive events (DE) that could impact repository performance and are related to the geologic processes of tectonism, structural deformation, seismicity, and igneous activity. Collectively, they are referred to as the DE FEPs. This evaluation determines which of the DE FEPs are excluded from modeling used to support the total system performance assessment for license application (TSPA-LA). The evaluation is based on the data and results presented in supporting analysis reports, model reports, technical information, or corroborative documents that are cited in the individual FEP discussions in Section 6.2 of this analysis report.

  11. Features, Events, and Processes: Disruptive Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. King

    2004-01-01

    The primary purpose of this analysis is to evaluate seismic- and igneous-related features, events, and processes (FEPs). These FEPs represent areas of natural system processes that have the potential to produce disruptive events (DE) that could impact repository performance and are related to the geologic processes of tectonism, structural deformation, seismicity, and igneous activity. Collectively, they are referred to as the DE FEPs. This evaluation determines which of the DE FEPs are excluded from modeling used to support the total system performance assessment for license application (TSPA-LA). The evaluation is based on the data and results presented in supporting analysis reports, model reports, technical information, or corroborative documents that are cited in the individual FEP discussions in Section 6.2 of this analysis report

  12. Sensitivity of seismic design parameters to input variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wium, D.J.W.

    1987-01-01

    The probabilistic method introduced by Cornell (1968) has been used to a large extent for this purpose. Due to its probabilistic approach, this technique provides a sound basis for studying the influence of the dominant parameters in such a model. Although the Southern African region is not well known for its seismicity, a number of events in the recent past has focussed the attention on some seismically active areas where special attention may be needed in defining the correct design parameters. The relatively sparse historical seismic data has been used to develop a mathematical model which represents this region. This paper briefly discusses this model, and uses it as a basis for evaluating the influence of the uncertainty in each of the principal parameters, being the seismicity of the region, the attenuation of seismic waves after an event, and models that can be used to arrive at engineering design values. (orig./HP)

  13. Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

  14. Seismic Level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dirksen, Gerben; Pellissetti, Manuel; Duncan-Whiteman, Paul

    2014-01-01

    For most external events, the calculation of the core damage frequency (CDF) in Level 1 PSA is sufficient to be able to show that the contribution of the event to the plant risk is negligible. However, it is not sufficient to compare the CDF due to the external event to the total plant CDF; instead the Level 1 PSA result for the event should be compared to the large early release frequency (LERF), or alternatively arguments should be given why the CDF from the external event will not contribute mostly to LERF. For seismic events in particular, it can often not be easily excluded that sequences leading to core damage would not also result in LERF. Since the confinement function is one of the most essential functions for Level 2 PSA, special care must be taken of the containment penetrations. For example systems with containment penetrations that are normally closed during operation or are designed to withstand more than the maximum containment pressure are normally screened out in the Level 2 PSA for the containment isolation function, however the possibility of LOCA in such systems due to an earthquake may nevertheless lead to containment bypass. Additionally, the functionality of passive features may be compromised in case of a beyond design earthquake. In the present paper, we present crucial ingredients of a methodology for a Level 2 seismic PSA. This methodology consists of the following steps: Extension of the seismic equipment list (SEL) to include Level 2 PSA relevant systems (e.g. containment isolation system, features for core melt stabilization, hydrogen mitigation systems), Determination of the systems within the existing SEL with increased demands in case of severe accidents, Determination of essential components for which a dedicated fragility analysis needs to be performed. (author)

  15. Analysis of rockburst and rockfall accidents in relation to class of stope support, regional support, energy of seismic events and mining layout

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cichowicz, A

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available This report discusses the assessment of safety risk and the analysis of Falls Of Ground (FOG) in mines due to seismic events and mining layout during the period of 1991-1992 on a single mine. The multivariate analysis was used to obtain a...

  16. First Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2008-03-21

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The Hanford Seismic Assessment Team locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. For the Hanford Seismic Network, forty-four local earthquakes were recorded during the first quarter of fiscal year 2008. A total of thirty-one micro earthquakes were recorded within the Rattlesnake Mountain swarm area at depths in the 5-8 km range, most likely within the pre-basalt sediments. The largest event recorded by the network during the first quarter (November 25, 2007 - magnitude 1.5 Mc) was located within this swarm area at a depth of 4.3 km. With regard to the depth distribution, three earthquakes occurred at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), thirty-six earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and five earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, thirty-eight earthquakes occurred in swarm areas and six earth¬quakes were classified as random events.

  17. Annual report on the KSRS seismic array operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jun, Myung-Soon; Jeon, Jeong-Soo; Kang, Ik-Bum [Korea Institute of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (KR)] (and others)

    1999-12-01

    Wonju KSRS (PS31) is one of the primary seismic stations under the IMS of CTBT. Korean NDC has been transmitting real time seismic data to IDC successfully during 1999. We have installed four elements seismo-acoustic array KISS(Korea Infrasound and Seismic Station) to detect and identify the seismic events in and around the Korean peninsula as a joint cooperation between KIGAM and SMU(Southern Methodist University). Continuous data from KSRS, KISS and other stations were automatically detected and analyzed using KEMS(Korea Earthquake Monitoring System) at KIGAM. KEMS has automatically detected and analyzed 1943 events between 1998.12.10 and 1999.12.22 and 876 events were reviewed by analyst and listed. Some electric poles used for data transmission inside the KSRS were eliminated and replaced to radio transmission. To increase the accuracy of earthquake observation velocity structure under the Korean peninsula was studied. To develop the Magnitude scale in Korea, the same approach which Richter applied in USA, 1935, was studied using Korean data. (author). 23 refs., 13 tabs., 89 figs.

  18. False alarms and mine seismicity: An example from the Gentry Mountain mining region, Utah. Los Alamos Source Region Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, S.R.

    1992-09-23

    Mining regions are a cause of concern for monitoring of nuclear test ban treaties because they present the opportunity for clandestine nuclear tests (i.e. decoupled explosions). Mining operations are often characterized by high seismicity rates and can provide the cover for excavating voids for decoupling. Chemical explosions (seemingly as part of normal mining activities) can be used to complicate the signals from a simultaneous decoupled nuclear explosion. Thus, most concern about mines has dealt with the issue of missed violations to a test ban treaty. In this study, we raise the diplomatic concern of false alarms associated with mining activities. Numerous reports and papers have been published about anomalous seismicity associated with mining activities. As part of a large discrimination study in the western US (Taylor et al., 1989), we had one earthquake that was consistently classified as an explosion. The magnitude 3.5 disturbance occurred on May 14, 1981 and was conspicuous in its lack of Love waves, relative lack of high- frequency energy, low Lg/Pg ratio, and high m{sub b} {minus} M{sub s}. A moment-tensor solution by Patton and Zandt (1991) indicated the event had a large implosional component. The event occurred in the Gentry Mountain coal mining region in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. Using a simple source representation, we modeled the event as a tabular excavation collapse that occurred as a result of normal mining activities. This study raises the importance of having a good catalogue of seismic data and information about mining activities from potential proliferant nations.

  19. Efficient blind search for similar-waveform earthquakes in years of continuous seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, C. E.; Bergen, K.; Rong, K.; Elezabi, H.; Bailis, P.; Levis, P.; Beroza, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Cross-correlating an earthquake waveform template with continuous seismic data has proven to be a sensitive, discriminating detector of small events missing from earthquake catalogs, but a key limitation of this approach is that it requires advance knowledge of the earthquake signals we wish to detect. To overcome this limitation, we can perform a blind search for events with similar waveforms, comparing waveforms from all possible times within the continuous data (Brown et al., 2008). However, the runtime for naive blind search scales quadratically with the duration of continuous data, making it impractical to process years of continuous data. The Fingerprint And Similarity Thresholding (FAST) detection method (Yoon et al., 2015) enables a comprehensive blind search for similar-waveform earthquakes in a fast, scalable manner by adapting data-mining techniques originally developed for audio and image search within massive databases. FAST converts seismic waveforms into compact "fingerprints", which are efficiently organized and searched within a database. In this way, FAST avoids the unnecessary comparison of dissimilar waveforms. To date, the longest duration of continuous data used for event detection with FAST was 3 months at a single station near Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, which revealed microearthquakes closely correlated with stages of hydraulic fracturing (Yoon et al., 2017). In this presentation we introduce an optimized, parallel version of the FAST software with improvements to the fingerprinting algorithm and the ability to detect events using continuous data from a network of stations (Bergen et al., 2016). We demonstrate its ability to detect low-magnitude earthquakes within several years of continuous data at locations of interest in California.

  20. Seismogenic zonation and seismic hazard estimates in a Southern Italy area (Northern Apulia characterised by moderate seismicity rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Del Gaudio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The northernmost part of Apulia, in Southern Italy, is an emerged portion of the Adriatic plate, which in past centuries was hit by at least three disastrous earthquakes and at present is occasionally affected by seismic events of moderate energy. In the latest seismic hazard assessment carried out in Italy at national scale, the adopted seismogenic zonation (named ZS9 has defined for this area a single zone including parts of different structural units (chain, foredeep, foreland. However significant seismic behaviour differences were revealed among them by our recent studies and, therefore, we re-evaluated local seismic hazard by adopting a zonation, named ZNA, modifying the ZS9 to separate areas of Northern Apulia belonging to different structural domains. To overcome the problem of the limited datasets of historical events available for small zones having a relatively low rate of earthquake recurrence, an approach was adopted that integrates historical and instrumental event data. The latter were declustered with a procedure specifically devised to process datasets of low to moderate magnitude shocks. Seismicity rates were then calculated following alternative procedural choices, according to a "logic tree" approach, to explore the influence of epistemic uncertainties on the final results and to evaluate, among these, the importance of the uncertainty in seismogenic zonation. The comparison between the results obtained using zonations ZNA and ZS9 confirms the well known "spreading effect" that the use of larger seismogenic zones has on hazard estimates. This effect can locally determine underestimates or overestimates by amounts that make necessary a careful reconsideration of seismic classification and building code application.

  1. The Global Detection Capability of the IMS Seismic Network in 2013 Inferred from Ambient Seismic Noise Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebler, P. J.; Ceranna, L.

    2016-12-01

    All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection thresholdcan be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

  2. Properties of Repetitive Long-Period Seismicity at Villarrica Volcano, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J.; Waite, G. P.; Palma, J.; Johnson, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    Villarrica Volcano, Chile hosts a persistent lava lake and is characterized by degassing and long-period seismicity. In order to better understand the relationship between outgassing and seismicity, we recorded broadband seismic and acoustic data along with high-rate SO2 emission data. We used both a densely-spaced linear array deployed on the northern flank of Villarrica, during the austral summer of 2011, and a wider aperture array of stations distributed around the volcano that was active in the austral summer of 2010. Both deployments consisted of three-component broadband stations and were augmented with broadband infrasound sensors. Of particular interests are repetitive, ~1 Hz seismic and coincident infrasound signals that occurred approximately every 2 minutes. Because these events are typically very low amplitude, we used a matched filter approach to identify them. We windowed several high-amplitude records of these events from broadband seismic stations near the vent. The record section of each event served as a template to compare with the entire dataset by cross-correlation. This approach identified ~20,000 nearly identical events during the ~7 day deployment of the linear array, which were otherwise difficult to identify in the raw records. Assuming that all of the events that we identified have identical source mechanisms and depths, we stack the large suite of events to produce low-noise records and particle motions at receivers farther than 5 km from the vent. We find that the records from stations near the edifice are dominated by tangential particle motion, suggesting the influence of near-field components. Correlation of these data with broadband acoustic data collected at the summit suggest that these repeatable seismic processes are linked to acoustic emissions, probably due to gas bubbles bursting at the magma free surface, as no eruptive products besides gas were being emitted by the volcano during the instrument deployment. The acoustic

  3. 3-D seismic velocity and attenuation structures in the geothermal field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nugraha, Andri Dian [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No. 10 Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia); Syahputra, Ahmad [Geophyisical Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No. 10 Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia); Fatkhan,; Sule, Rachmat [Applied Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No. 10 Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia)

    2013-09-09

    We conducted delay time tomography to determine 3-D seismic velocity structures (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio) using micro-seismic events in the geothermal field. The P-and S-wave arrival times of these micro-seismic events have been used as input for the tomographic inversion. Our preliminary seismic velocity results show that the subsurface condition of geothermal field can be fairly delineated the characteristic of reservoir. We then extended our understanding of the subsurface physical properties through determining of attenuation structures (Qp, Qs, and Qs/Qp ratio) using micro-seismic waveform. We combined seismic velocities and attenuation structures to get much better interpretation of the reservoir characteristic. Our preliminary attanuation structures results show reservoir characterization can be more clearly by using the 3-D attenuation model of Qp, Qs, and Qs/Qp ratio combined with 3-D seismic velocity model of Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio.

  4. Nucelar reactor seismic safety analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Wells, J.E.; Lewis, L.C.

    1979-04-01

    In order to provide insights into the seismic safety requirements for nuclear power plants, a probabilistic based systems model and computational procedure have been developed. This model and computational procedure will be used to identify where data and modeling uncertainties need to be decreased by studying the effect of these uncertainties on the probability of radioactive release and the probability of failure of various structures, systems, and components. From the estimates of failure and release probabilities and their uncertainties the most sensitive steps in the seismic methodologies can be identified. In addition, the procedure will measure the uncertainty due to random occurrences, e.g. seismic event probabilities, material property variability, etc. The paper discusses the elements of this systems model and computational procedure, the event-tree/fault-tree development, and the statistical techniques to be employed

  5. The Lusi seismic experiment: An initial study to understand the effect of seismic activity to Lusi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karyono, E-mail: karyonosu@gmail.com [Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta (Indonesia); OSLO University (Norway); Padjadjaran University (UNPAD), Bandung (Indonesia); Mazzini, Adriano; Sugiharto, Anton [OSLO University (Norway); Lupi, Matteo [ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Syafri, Ildrem [Padjadjaran University (UNPAD), Bandung (Indonesia); Masturyono,; Rudiyanto, Ariska; Pranata, Bayu; Muzli,; Widodo, Handi Sulistyo; Sudrajat, Ajat [Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The spectacular Lumpur Sidoarjo (Lusi) eruption started in northeast Java on the 29 of May 2006 following a M6.3 earthquake striking the island [1,2]. Initially, several gas and mud eruption sites appeared along the reactivated strike-slip Watukosek fault system [3] and within weeks several villages were submerged by boiling mud. The most prominent eruption site was named Lusi. The Lusi seismic experiment is a project aims to begin a detailed study of seismicity around the Lusi area. In this initial phase we deploy 30 seismometers strategically distributed in the area around Lusi and along the Watukosek fault zone that stretches between Lusi and the Arjuno Welirang (AW) complex. The purpose of the initial monitoring is to conduct a preliminary seismic campaign aiming to identify the occurrence and the location of local seismic events in east Java particularly beneath Lusi.This network will locate small event that may not be captured by the existing BMKG network. It will be crucial to design the second phase of the seismic experiment that will consist of a local earthquake tomography of the Lusi-AW region and spatial and temporal variations of vp/vs ratios. The goal of this study is to understand how the seismicity occurring along the Sunda subduction zone affects to the behavior of the Lusi eruption. Our study will also provide a large dataset for a qualitative analysis of earthquake triggering studies, earthquake-volcano and earthquake-earthquake interactions. In this study, we will extract Green’s functions from ambient seismic noise data in order to image the shallow subsurface structure beneath LUSI area. The waveform cross-correlation technique will be apply to all of recordings of ambient seismic noise at 30 seismographic stations around the LUSI area. We use the dispersive behaviour of the retrieved Rayleigh waves to infer velocity structures in the shallow subsurface.

  6. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saari, J.; Malm, M.

    2012-06-01

    This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2011. Excavation of the underground characterisation facility called ONKALO started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2011 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km x 2 km x 2 km cube surrounding ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the construction of ONKALO. The configuration of the seismic network as well as the software packages applied in data processing and analyses have remained during the previous year. The design model of ONKALO and the brittle fault zone model of the Olkiluoto of the seismic visualization package Jdi were upgraded in 2011. The network has operated nearly continuously. There was a 14 minutes and 30 second long operation failure in December 2011. That was the first network operation failure in five years. Altogether 1223 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in the reported time period. Most of them (1098) are explosions that occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1064 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the semi

  7. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saari, J.; Malm, M. [AF-Consult Oy, Espoo (Finland)

    2012-06-15

    This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2011. Excavation of the underground characterisation facility called ONKALO started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2011 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km x 2 km x 2 km cube surrounding ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the construction of ONKALO. The configuration of the seismic network as well as the software packages applied in data processing and analyses have remained during the previous year. The design model of ONKALO and the brittle fault zone model of the Olkiluoto of the seismic visualization package Jdi were upgraded in 2011. The network has operated nearly continuously. There was a 14 minutes and 30 second long operation failure in December 2011. That was the first network operation failure in five years. Altogether 1223 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in the reported time period. Most of them (1098) are explosions that occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1064 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the

  8. Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2010-09-29

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 23 local earthquakes during the third quarter of FY 2010. Sixteen earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km), five earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km), most likely in the pre-basalt sediments, and two earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the basement. Geographically, twelve earthquakes were located in known swarm areas, 3 earthquakes occurred near a geologic structure (Saddle Mountain anticline), and eight earthquakes were classified as random events. The highest magnitude event (3.0 Mc) was recorded on May 8, 2010 at depth 3.0 km with epicenter located near the Saddle Mountain anticline. Later in the quarter (May 24 and June 28) two additional earthquakes were also recorded nearly at the same location. These events are not considered unusual in that earthquakes have been previously recorded at this location, for example, in October 2006 (Rohay et al; 2007). Six earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just

  9. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, M.

    2004-01-01

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274])

  10. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Gross

    2004-10-25

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]).

  11. First Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartshorn, Donald C.; Reidel, Stephen P.; Rohay, Alan C.; Valenta, Michelle M.

    2001-02-27

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. For the HSN, there were 477 triggers during the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2001 on the data acquisition system. Of these triggers, 176 were earthquakes. Forty-five earthquakes were located in the HSN area; 1 earthquake occurred in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 43 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, and 1 was earthquakes in the crystalline basement. Geographically, 44 earthquakes occurred in swarm areas, 1 earthquake was on a major structure, and no earthquakes were classified as random occurrences. The Horse Heaven Hills earthquake swarm area recorded all but one event during the first quarter of FY 2001. The peak of the activity occurred over December 12th, 13th, and 14th when 35 events occurred. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometers during the first quarter of FY 2001.

  12. Improvement of IDC/CTBTO Event Locations in Latin America and the Caribbean Using a Regional Seismic Travel Time Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, J. W.; Guendel, F.

    2013-05-01

    The International Data Centre is a vital element of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification mechanism. The fundamental mission of the International Data Centre (IDC) is to collect, process, and analyze monitoring data and to present results as event bulletins to Member States. For the IDC and in particular for waveform technologies, a key measure of the quality of its products is the accuracy by which every detected event is located. Accurate event location is crucial for purposes of an On Site Inspection (OSI), which would confirm the conduct of a nuclear test. Thus it is important for the IDC monitoring and data analysis to adopt new processing algorithms that improve the accuracy of event location. Among them the development of new algorithms to compute regional seismic travel times through 3-dimensional models have greatly increased IDC's location precision, the reduction of computational time, allowing forward and inverse modeling of large data sets. One of these algorithms has been the Regional Seismic Travel Time model (RSTT) of Myers et al., (2011). The RSTT model is nominally a global model; however, it currently covers only North America and Eurasia in sufficient detail. It is the intention CTBTO's Provisional Technical Secretariat and the IDC to extend the RSTT model to other regions of the earth, e.g. Latin America-Caribbean, Africa and Asia. This is particularly important for the IDC location procedure, as there are regions of the earth for which crustal models are not well constrained. For this purpose IDC has launched a RSTT initiative. In May 2012, a technical meeting was held in Vienna under the auspices of the CTBTO. The purpose of this meeting was to invite National Data Centre experts as well as network operators from Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, Latin and North America to discuss the context under which a project to extend the RSTT model would be implemented. A total of 41 participants from 32 Member States

  13. Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2009-01-01

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded over 800 local earthquakes during the second quarter of FY 2009. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. Most of the events were considered minor (magnitude (Mc) less than 1.0) with 19 events in the 2.0-2.9 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 1.9 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude and the shallowness of the Wooded Island events have made them undetectable to most area residents. However, some Hanford employees working within a few miles of the area of highest activity, and individuals living in homes directly across the Columbia River from the swarm center, have reported feeling some movement. The Hanford SMA network was triggered numerous times by the Wooded Island swarm events. The maximum acceleration values recorded by the SMA network were

  15. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2009-07-31

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded over 800 local earthquakes during the second quarter of FY 2009. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. Most of the events were considered minor (magnitude (Mc) less than 1.0) with 19 events in the 2.0-2.9 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 1.9 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude and the shallowness of the Wooded Island events have made them undetectable to most area residents. However, some Hanford employees working within a few miles of the area of highest activity, and individuals living in homes directly across the Columbia River from the swarm center, have reported feeling some movement. The Hanford SMA network was triggered numerous times by the Wooded Island swarm events. The maximum acceleration values recorded by the SMA network were

  16. Focusing patterns of seismicity with relocation and collapsing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ka Lok; Gudmundsson, Ólafur; Tryggvason, Ari; Bödvarsson, Reynir; Brandsdóttir, Bryndís

    2016-07-01

    Seismicity is generally concentrated on faults or in fault zones of varying, sometimes complex geometry. An earthquake catalog, compiled over time, contains useful information about this geometry, which can help understanding the tectonics of a region. Interpreting the geometrical distribution of events in a catalog is often complicated by the diffuseness of the earthquake locations. Here, we explore a number of strategies to reduce this diffuseness and hence simplify the seismicity pattern of an earthquake catalog. These strategies utilize information about event locations contained in their overall catalog distribution. They apply this distribution as an a priori constraint on relocations of the events, or as an attractor for each individual event in a collapsing scheme, and thereby focus the locations. The latter strategy is not a relocation strategy in a strict sense, although event foci are moved, because the movements are not driven by data misfit. Both strategies simplify the seismicity pattern of the catalog and may help to interpret it. A synthetic example and a real-data example from an aftershock sequence in south west Iceland are presented to demonstrate application of the strategies. Entropy is used to quantify their effect.

  17. Criteria for the PNE seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pruvost, N.L.

    1978-01-01

    A 1976 treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union permits a local seismic network to be deployed at the site of a peaceful nuclear explosion to monitor the event. Criteria for the design and selection of the data-acquisition equipment for such a network are provided. Constraints imposed by the protocol of the treaty, the environment, and the expected properties of seismic signals (based on experiences at the Nevada Test Site) are discussed. Conclusions are drawn about the desired operating mode. Criteria for a general seismic instrumentation system are described

  18. The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed

  19. Response of the ionospheric electron density to different types of seismic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. He

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The electron density data recorded by the Langmuir Probe Instrument (ISL, Instrument Sonde de Langmuir onboard the DEMETER satellite have been collected for nearly 4 yr (during 2006–2009 to perform a statistical analysis. During this time, more than 7000 earthquakes with a magnitude larger than or equal to 5.0 occurred all over the world. For the statistical studies, all these events have been divided into various categories on the basis of the seismic information, including Southern or Northern Hemisphere earthquakes, inland or sea earthquakes, earthquakes at different magnitude levels, earthquakes at different depth levels, isolated events and all events. To distinguish the pre-earthquake anomalies from the possible ionospheric anomalies related to the geomagnetic activity, the data were filtered with the Kp index. The statistical results obviously show that the electron density increases close to the epicentres both in the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere, but the position of the anomaly is slightly shifted to the north in the Northern Hemisphere and to the south in the Southern Hemisphere. The electron density related to both inland and sea earthquakes presents an anomaly approximately close to the epicentres, but the anomaly for sea earthquakes is more significant than for inland earthquakes. The intensity of the anomalies is enhanced when the magnitude increases and is reduced when the depth increases. A similar anomaly can also be seen in the statistical results concerning the isolated earthquakes. All these statistical results can help to better understand the preparation process of the earthquakes and their influence up to the ionospheric levels.

  20. Characterization of the seismic environment at the Sanford Underground Laboratory, South Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harms, J; Dorsher, S; Kandhasamy, S; Mandic, V [University of Minnesota, 116 Church Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Acernese, F; Barone, F [Universita degli Studi di Salerno, Fisciano (Saudi Arabia) (Italy); Bartos, I; Marka, S [Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Beker, M; Van den Brand, J F J; Rabeling, D S [Nikhef, National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Science Park 105, 1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Christensen, N; Coughlin, M [Carleton College, Northfield, MN 55057 (United States); DeSalvo, R [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Heise, J; Trancynger, T [Sanford Underground Laboratory, 630 East Summit Street, Lead, SD 57754 (United States); Mueller, G [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Naticchioni, L [Department of Physics, University of Rome ' Sapienza' , P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome (Italy); O' Keefe, T [Saint Louis University, 3450 Lindell Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63103 (United States); Sajeva, A, E-mail: janosch@caltech.ed [Dipartimento di Fisica ' Enrico Fermi' , Universita di Pisa, Largo Bruno Pontecorvo, Pisa (Italy)

    2010-11-21

    An array of seismometers is being developed at the Sanford Underground Laboratory, the former Homestake mine, in South Dakota to study the properties of underground seismic fields and Newtonian noise, and to investigate the possible advantages of constructing a third-generation gravitational-wave detector underground. Seismic data were analyzed to characterize seismic noise and disturbances. External databases were used to identify sources of seismic waves: ocean-wave data to identify sources of oceanic microseisms and surface wind-speed data to investigate correlations with seismic motion as a function of depth. In addition, sources of events contributing to the spectrum at higher frequencies are characterized by studying the variation of event rates over the course of a day. Long-term observations of spectral variations provide further insight into the nature of seismic sources. Seismic spectra at three different depths are compared, establishing the 4100 ft level as a world-class low seismic-noise environment.

  1. The potential for vault-induced seismicity in nuclear fuel waste disposal: experience from Canadian mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, C.D.; Chandler, N.A.

    1996-12-01

    A seismic event which causes damage to an underground opening is called a rockburst. Practical experience indicates that these damaging seismic events are associated with deep mines where extraction ratios are greater than 0.6. For the arrangement being considered by AECL for nuclear fuel waste disposal vaults, extraction ratios, for the room and pillar design, will be less than 0.3. At this extraction ratio the stress magnitudes will not be sufficient to induce seismic events that can damage the underground openings. Documented world-wide experience shows that unless the underground opening is very close to the source of a naturally occurring seismic event, such as an earthquake, the opening will also not experience any significant damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will improve its resistance to earthquake damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will also reduce the total convergence of the openings caused by thermal loads and hence minimize the potential for thermally-induced seismic events. (author)

  2. SEISMIC STUDY OF THE AGUA DE PAU GEOTHERMAL PROSPECT, SAO MIGUEL, AZORES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Phillip B.; Rodrigues da Silva, Antonio; Iyer, H.M.; Evans, John R.

    1985-01-01

    A 16 station array was operated over the 200 km**2 central portion of Sao Miguel utilizing 8 permanent Instituto Nacional de Meterologia e Geofisica stations and 8 USGS portable stations. Forty four local events with well constrained solutions and 15 regional events were located. In addition, hundreds of unlocatable seismic events were recorded. The most interesting seismic activity occurred in a swarm on September 6 and 7, 1983 when over 200 events were recorded in a 16 hour period. The seismic activity around Agua de Pau was centered on the east and northeast slopes of the volcano. The data suggest a boiling hydrothermal system beneath the Agua de Pau volcano, consistent with a variety of other data.

  3. Prediction problem for target events based on the inter-event waiting time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapoval, A.

    2010-11-01

    In this paper we address the problem of forecasting the target events of a time series given the distribution ξ of time gaps between target events. Strong earthquakes and stock market crashes are the two types of such events that we are focusing on. In the series of earthquakes, as McCann et al. show [W.R. Mc Cann, S.P. Nishenko, L.R. Sykes, J. Krause, Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries, Pure and Applied Geophysics 117 (1979) 1082-1147], there are well-defined gaps (called seismic gaps) between strong earthquakes. On the other hand, usually there are no regular gaps in the series of stock market crashes [M. Raberto, E. Scalas, F. Mainardi, Waiting-times and returns in high-frequency financial data: an empirical study, Physica A 314 (2002) 749-755]. For the case of seismic gaps, we analytically derive an upper bound of prediction efficiency given the coefficient of variation of the distribution ξ. For the case of stock market crashes, we develop an algorithm that predicts the next crash within a certain time interval after the previous one. We show that this algorithm outperforms random prediction. The efficiency of our algorithm sets up a lower bound of efficiency for effective prediction of stock market crashes.

  4. Improvements on the seismic catalog previous to the 2011 El Hierro eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez Cerdeña, Itahiza; del Fresno, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Precursors from the submarine eruption of El Hierro (Canary Islands) in 2011 included 10,000 low magnitude earthquakes and 5 cm crustal deformation within 81 days previous to the eruption onset on the 10th October. Seismicity revealed a 20 km horizontal migration from the North to the South of the island and depths ranging from 10 and 17 km with deeper events occurring further South. The earthquakes of the seismic catalog were manually picked by the IGN almost in real time, but there has not been a subsequent revision to check for new non located events jet and the completeness magnitude for the seismic catalog have strong changes during the entire swarm due to the variable number of events per day. In this work we used different techniques to improve the quality of the seismic catalog. First we applied different automatic algorithms to detect new events including the LTA-STA method. Then, we performed a semiautomatic system to correlate the new P and S detections with known phases from the original catalog. The new detected earthquakes were also located using Hypoellipse algorithm. The resulting new catalog included 15,000 new events mainly concentrated in the last weeks of the swarm and we assure a completeness magnitude of 1.2 during the whole series. As the seismicity from the original catalog was already relocated using hypoDD algorithm, we improved the location of the new events using a master-cluster relocation. This method consists in relocating earthquakes towards a cluster of well located events instead of a single event as the master-event method. In our case this cluster correspond to the relocated earthquakes from the original catalog. Finally, we obtained a new equation for the local magnitude estimation which allow us to include corrections for each seismic station in order to avoid local effects. The resulting magnitude catalog has a better fit with the moment magnitude catalog obtained for the strong earthquakes of this series in previous studies

  5. Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

  6. Neutron-gamma discrimination based on pulse shape discrimination in a Ce:LiCaAlF{sub 6} scintillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamazaki, Atsushi, E-mail: a-yamazaki@nucl.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Department of Materials, Physics and Energy Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University (Japan); Watanabe, Kenichi; Uritani, Akira [Department of Materials, Physics and Energy Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University (Japan); Iguchi, Tetsuo [Department of Quantum Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University (Japan); Kawaguchi, Noriaki [Tokuyama Corporation (Japan); Yanagida, Takayuki; Fujimoto, Yutaka; Yokota, Yuui; Kamada, Kei [Institute of Multidisciplinary Research for Advanced Materials (IMRAM), Tohoku University (Japan); Fukuda, Kentaro; Suyama, Toshihisa [Tokuyama Corporation (Japan); Yoshikawa, Akira [Institute of Multidisciplinary Research for Advanced Materials (IMRAM), Tohoku University (Japan); New Industry Creation Hatchery Center (NICHe), Tohoku University (Japan)

    2011-10-01

    We demonstrate neutron-gamma discrimination based on a pulse shape discrimination method in a Ce:LiCAF scintillator. We have tried neutron-gamma discrimination using a difference in the pulse shape or the decay time of the scintillation light pulse. The decay time is converted into the rise time through an integrating circuit. A {sup 252}Cf enclosed in a polyethylene container is used as the source of thermal neutrons and prompt gamma-rays. Obvious separation of neutron and gamma-ray events is achieved using the information of the rise time of the scintillation light pulse. In the separated neutron spectrum, the gamma-ray events are effectively suppressed with little loss of neutron events. The pulse shape discrimination is confirmed to be useful to detect neutrons with the Ce:LiCAF scintillator under an intense high-energy gamma-ray condition.

  7. Identifying Isotropic Events using an Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion Technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreger, Douglas S. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Ford, Sean R. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Walter, William R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-12-08

    Research was carried out investigating the feasibility of using a regional distance seismic waveform moment tensor inverse procedure to estimate source parameters of nuclear explosions and to use the source inversion results to develop a source-type discrimination capability. The results of the research indicate that it is possible to robustly determine the seismic moment tensor of nuclear explosions, and when compared to natural seismicity in the context of the a Hudson et al. (1989) source-type diagram they are found to separate from populations of earthquakes and underground cavity collapse seismic sources.

  8. GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Serpelloni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

  9. The ear, the eye, earthquakes and feature selection: listening to automatically generated seismic bulletins for clues as to the differences between true and false events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, H. A.; Arehart, E.; Louie, J. N.; Witzleben, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    Listening to the waveforms generated by earthquakes is not new. The recordings of seismometers have been sped up and played to generations of introductory seismology students, published on educational websites and even included in the occasional symphony. The modern twist on earthquakes as music is an interest in using state-of-the-art computer algorithms for seismic data processing and evaluation. Algorithms such as such as Hidden Markov Models, Bayesian Network models and Support Vector Machines have been highly developed for applications in speech recognition, and might also be adapted for automatic seismic data analysis. Over the last three years, the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has supported an effort to apply computer learning and data mining algorithms to IDC data processing, particularly to the problem of weeding through automatically generated event bulletins to find events which are non-physical and would otherwise have to be eliminated by the hand of highly trained human analysts. Analysts are able to evaluate events, distinguish between phases, pick new phases and build new events by looking at waveforms displayed on a computer screen. Human ears, however, are much better suited to waveform processing than are the eyes. Our hypothesis is that combining an auditory representation of seismic events with visual waveforms would reduce the time it takes to train an analyst and the time they need to evaluate an event. Since it takes almost two years for a person of extraordinary diligence to become a professional analyst and IDC contracts are limited to seven years by Treaty, faster training would significantly improve IDC operations. Furthermore, once a person learns to distinguish between true and false events by ear, various forms of audio compression can be applied to the data. The compression scheme which yields the smallest data set in which relevant signals can still be heard is likely an

  10. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report 2002-2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saari, J. [Enprima Oy, Vantaa (Finland)

    2005-09-15

    In Olkiluoto, Posiva Oy has operated a local seismic network since February 2002. In the beginning, the network consisted of six seismic stations. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the years 2002 - 2004. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The network has operated nearly continuously. The longest interruption occurred 16.-17.6.2004, when two new seismic stations were installed in the network and the operation procedure was changed. Altogether 757 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area. The magnitudes of the observed events range from ML = -3.5 to ML = 1.2. All of them are explosions or other artificial events. So far, none of the 757 observed events can be classified as microearthquakes. Five of the events have characteristics that make the origin of the recorded signal uncertain. They are quite unlikely microearthquakes, but they are not typical examples of artificial seismic signals either. When the experience and the data set of the Olkiluoto microearthquakes increase the identification of events will be more definite. Evidence of activity that would has influence on the safety of the ONKALO, have not found. (orig.)

  11. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report 2002-2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saari, J.

    2005-09-01

    In Olkiluoto, Posiva Oy has operated a local seismic network since February 2002. In the beginning, the network consisted of six seismic stations. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the years 2002 - 2004. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The network has operated nearly continuously. The longest interruption occurred 16.-17.6.2004, when two new seismic stations were installed in the network and the operation procedure was changed. Altogether 757 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area. The magnitudes of the observed events range from ML = -3.5 to ML = 1.2. All of them are explosions or other artificial events. So far, none of the 757 observed events can be classified as microearthquakes. Five of the events have characteristics that make the origin of the recorded signal uncertain. They are quite unlikely microearthquakes, but they are not typical examples of artificial seismic signals either. When the experience and the data set of the Olkiluoto microearthquakes increase the identification of events will be more definite. Evidence of activity that would has influence on the safety of the ONKALO, have not found. (orig.)

  12. Regional Seismic Arrays and Nuclear Test Ban Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    Anderson, K. R., S. T. Rosenberg, and D. Lanan (1982). Automatic association using expert system techniq:_,s, in Seismic Discrimination, Semiannual...Travel Times, Earthquake, by Glenn D. Nelson and John E. V idale . ........... ...................................... ............ . ....... 395 Lund...1553 Nelson, Glenn D. and John E. Vidale-Earthquake Locations by 3-D Finite Difference Travel Times

  13. Predictability in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmstetter, AgnèS.; Sornette, Didier

    2003-10-01

    As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity on the basis of interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS). The ETAS model is constructed on a bare (unrenormalized) Omori law, the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks. For simplicity, we do not use the information on the spatial location of earthquakes and work only in the time domain. We demonstrate the essential role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source. We offer an analytical approach to account for the yet unobserved triggered seismicity adapted to the problem of forecasting future seismic rates at varying horizons from the present. Tests presented on synthetic catalogs validate strongly the importance of taking into account all the cascades of still unobserved triggered events in order to predict correctly the future level of seismicity beyond a few minutes. We find a strong predictability if one accepts to predict only a small fraction of the large-magnitude targets. Specifically, we find a prediction gain (defined as the ratio of the fraction of predicted events over the fraction of time in alarms) equal to 21 for a fraction of alarm of 1%, a target magnitude M ≥ 6, an update time of 0.5 days between two predictions, and for realistic parameters of the ETAS model. However, the probability gains degrade fast when one attempts to predict a larger fraction of the targets. This is because a significant fraction of events remain uncorrelated from past seismicity. This delineates the fundamental limits underlying forecasting skills, stemming from an intrinsic stochastic component in these interacting triggered seismicity models. Quantitatively, the fundamental

  14. Changes and challenges following the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake: the evolution of the use of the Internet for large seismic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Camassi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The September 26, 1997 Central Italy earthquake represents the first Italian large seismic event on the occasion of which Internet was intensively exploited to exchange and disseminate data, information and news. The paper illustrates how national and international seismological institutions disseminate information about earthquakes ten years ago. A web evolution is sketched, and some features that can be of interest today in the seismological community are presented.

  15. Automated seismic waveform location using Multichannel Coherency Migration (MCM)-I. Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Peidong; Angus, Doug; Rost, Sebastian; Nowacki, Andy; Yuan, Sanyi

    2018-03-01

    With the proliferation of dense seismic networks sampling the full seismic wavefield, recorded seismic data volumes are getting bigger and automated analysis tools to locate seismic events are essential. Here, we propose a novel Multichannel Coherency Migration (MCM) method to locate earthquakes in continuous seismic data and reveal the location and origin time of seismic events directly from recorded waveforms. By continuously calculating the coherency between waveforms from different receiver pairs, MCM greatly expands the available information which can be used for event location. MCM does not require phase picking or phase identification, which allows fully automated waveform analysis. By migrating the coherency between waveforms, MCM leads to improved source energy focusing. We have tested and compared MCM to other migration-based methods in noise-free and noisy synthetic data. The tests and analysis show that MCM is noise resistant and can achieve more accurate results compared with other migration-based methods. MCM is able to suppress strong interference from other seismic sources occurring at a similar time and location. It can be used with arbitrary 3D velocity models and is able to obtain reasonable location results with smooth but inaccurate velocity models. MCM exhibits excellent location performance and can be easily parallelized giving it large potential to be developed as a real-time location method for very large datasets.

  16. Seismically induced accident sequence analysis of the advanced test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khericha, S.T.; Henry, D.M.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Griffin, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Nafday, A.M.

    1991-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed for the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of the external events analysis. The risk from seismic events to the fuel in the core and in the fuel storage canal was evaluated. The key elements of this paper are the integration of seismically induced internal flood and internal fire, and the modeling of human error rates as a function of the magnitude of earthquake. The systems analysis was performed by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc. and the fragility analysis and quantification were performed by EQE International, Inc. (EQE)

  17. Source Characterization and Seismic Hazard Considerations for Hydraulic Fracture Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosman, K.; Viegas, G. F.; Baig, A. M.; Urbancic, T.

    2015-12-01

    Large microseismic events (M>0) have been shown to be generated during hydraulic fracture treatments relatively frequently. These events are a concern both from public safety and engineering viewpoints. Recent microseismic monitoring projects in the Horn River Basin have utilized both downhole and surface sensors to record events associated with hydraulic fracturing. The resulting hybrid monitoring system has produced a large dataset with two distinct groups of events: large events recorded by the surface network (0structures; small events are concentrated at reservoir depth. Differences in behavior have been observed between these two datasets, leading to conclusions of different underlying processes responsible for the recorded activity. Both datasets show very low seismic efficiency, implying slip weakening and possibly the presence of fluids in the source region. Reservoir events have shear-tensile source mechanisms ranging between tensile opening and tensile closing, and fracture orientations dominated by the rock fabric which are not always optimally oriented to the regional stress field. The observed source characteristics are expected for events driven by increased pore pressure and reduced friction due to lubrication. On average, deep events show higher stress drop, apparent stress, and rupture velocity than reservoir events. This reflects higher confining stresses with depth, and possibly the release of stored energy in the existing zone of weakness. Deep events are dominated by shear failures, but source characteristics are smaller than for naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes of similar magnitude. Most importantly from a seismic hazard perspective, large earthquakes associated with hydrofracing have lower stress drops than tectonic earthquakes, and thus produce smaller peak ground acceleration and less damage on surface. The largest event recorded in this dataset has a moment magnitude of +2.9 and was felt by field crews in the area. The response

  18. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  19. Views on seismic design standardization of structures, systems and components of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.

    2011-01-01

    Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) of nuclear facilities have to be designed for normal operating loads such as dead weight, pressure, temperature etc., and accidental loads such as earthquakes, floods, extreme, wind air craft impact, explosions etc. Manmade accidents such as aircraft impact, explosions etc., sometimes may be considered as design basis event and sometimes taken care by providing administrative controls. This will not be possible in the case of natural events such as earthquakes, flooding, extreme winds etc. Among natural events earthquakes are considered as most devastating and need to be considered as design basis event which has certain annual frequency specified in design codes. For example nuclear power plants are designed for a seismic event has 10000 year return period. It is generally felt that design of SSCs for earthquake loads is very time consuming and expensive. Conventional seismic design approaches demands for large number of supports for systems and components. This results in large space occupation and in turn creates difficulties for maintenance and in service inspection of systems and components. In addition, complete exercise of design need to be repeated for plants being located at different sites due to different seismic demands. However, advanced seismic response control methods will help to standardize the seismic design meeting the safety and economy. These methods adopt passive, semi active and active devices, and base isolators to control the seismic response. In nuclear industry, it is advisable to go for passive devices to control the seismic responses. Ideally speaking, these methods will make the designs made for normal loads can also satisfy the seismic demand without calling for change in material, geometry, layout etc. in the SSCs. This paper explain the basic ideas of seismic response control methods, demonstrate the effectiveness of control methods through case studies and eventually give the procedure to

  20. Seismic history of the Maltese islands and considerations on seismic risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Galea

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A historical catalogue of felt earthquakes in the Maltese islands has been compiled dating back to 1530. Although no fatalities were officially recorded during this time as a direct consequence of earthquake effects, serious damage to buildings occurred several times. In the catalogue time period, the islands experienced EMS-98 intensity VII-VIII once (11 January 1693 and intensity VII, or VI-VII five times. The northern segment of the Hyblean-Malta plateau is the source region which appears to pose the greatest threat, although large Greek events and lower magnitude Sicily Channel events also produced damage. Estimates of return periods for intensity ?V are presented, and it is shown that expected peak ground accelerations justify the implementation of, at least, minimum anti-seismic provisions. The rapid and continual increase in the local building stock on the densely-populated islands warrants the implementation of an appropriate seismic building code to be enforced.

  1. Seismic isolation of lead-cooled reactors: The European project SILER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forni, Massimo; Poggianti, Alessandro; Scipinotti, Riccardo; Dusi, Alberto; Manzoni, Elena

    2014-01-01

    SILER (Seismic-Initiated event risk mitigation in LEad-cooled Reactors) is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission in the 7th Framework Programme, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic-initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors, and developing adequate protection measures. The project started in October 2011, and will run for a duration of three years. The attention of SILER is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes, with particular regards to beyond-design seismic events, and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design. Special efforts are devoted to the development of seismic isolation devices and related interface components. Two reference designs, at the state of development available at the beginning of the project and coming from the 6th Programme, have been considered: ELSY (European Lead Fast Reactor) for the Lead Fast Reactors (LFR), and MYRRHA (Multi-purpose hYbrid Research Reactor for High-tech Applications) for the Accelerator-Driven Systems (ADS). This paper describes the main activities and results obtained so far, paying particular attention to the development of seismic isolators, and the interface components which must be installed between the isolated reactor building and the non-isolated parts of the plant, such as the pipe expansion joints and the joint-cover of the seismic gap.

  2. Input for seismic hazard assessment using Vrancea seismic source region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivan, Iren-Adelina; Enescu, B.D.; Pantea, A.

    1998-01-01

    We use an extended and combined data base including historical and modern, qualitative and quantitative data, i.e., more than 25 events during the period 1790 - 1990 with epicentral/maximum intensities ranging from X to V degree (MSK scale), the variation interval of isoseismal curves ranging from IX th to III rd degree. The data set was analysed using both the sum phasor techniques of Ridelek and Sacks (1984) for different magnitudes and depth intervals and the Stepp's method. For the assessment of seismic hazard we need a pattern of seismic source regions including an estimation for the maximum expected magnitude and the return period for the studied regions. Another necessary step in seismic hazard assessment is to develop attenuation relationships specific to a seismogenic zone, particularly to sub-crustal earthquakes of Vrancea region. The conceptual frame involves the use of appropriate decay models and consideration of the randomness in the attenuation, taking into account the azimuthal variation of the isoseist shapes. (authors)

  3. Local seismic monitoring east and north of Toronto - Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohajer, A.A.; Doughty, M.

    1996-08-01

    Monitoring of small magnitude ('micro') earthquakes in a dense local network is one of the techniques used to delineate currently active faults and seismic sources. The conventional wisdom is that smaller, but more frequent, seismic events normally occur on active fault planes and a log linear empirical relation between frequency and magnitude can be used to estimate the magnitude and recurrence (frequency) of the larger events. A program of site-specific seismic monitoring has been supported by the AECB since 1991, to investigate the feasibility of microearthquake detection in suburban areas of east Toronto in order to assess the rate activity of local events in the vicinity of the nuclear power plants at Pickering and Darlington. For deployment of the seismic stations at the most favorable locations an extensive background noise survey was carried out. This survey involved measuring and comparing the amplitude response of the ambient vibration caused by natural phenomena (e.g. wind blow, water flow, wave action) or human activities such as farming, mining and industrial work at 25 test sites. Subsequently, a five-station seismic network, with a 30 km aperture, was selected between the Pickering and Darlington nuclear power plants on Lake Ontario, to the south, and Lake Scugog to the north. The detection threshold obtained for two of the stations allows recording of local events M L =0-2, a magnitude range which is usually not detected by regional seismic networks. An analysis of several thousand triggered signals resulted in the identification of about 120 local events, which can not be assigned to any source other than the natural release of crustal stresses. The recurrence frequency of these microearthquakes shows a linear relationship which matches that of larger events in the last two centuries in this region. The preliminary results indicate that the stress is currently accumulating and is being released within clusters of small earthquakes

  4. Micro-seismicity and seismic moment release within the Coso Geothermal Field, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaven, Joern; Hickman, Stephen H.; Davatzes, Nicholas C.

    2014-01-01

    We relocate 16 years of seismicity in the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) using differential travel times and simultaneously invert for seismic velocities to improve our knowledge of the subsurface geologic and hydrologic structure. We expand on our previous results by doubling the number of relocated events from April 1996 through May 2012 using a new field-wide 3-D velocity model. Relocated micro-seismicity sharpens in many portions of the active geothermal reservoir, likely defining large-scale fault zones and fluid pressure compartment boundaries. However, a significant fraction of seismicity remains diffuse and does not cluster into sharply defined structures, suggesting that permeability is maintained within the reservoir through distributed brittle failure. The seismic velocity structure reveals heterogeneous distributions of compressional (Vp) and shear (Vs) wave speed, with Vs generally higher in the Main Field and East Flank and Vp remaining relatively uniform across the CGF, but with significant local variations. The Vp/Vs ratio appears to outline the two main producing compartments of the reservoir at depths below mean ground level of approximately 1 to 2.5 km, with a ridge of relatively high Vp/Vs separating the Main Field from the East Flank. Detailed analyses of spatial and temporal variations in earthquake relocations and cumulative seismic moment release in the East Flank reveal three regions with persistently high rates of seismic activity. Two of these regions exhibit sharp, stationary boundaries at the margins of the East Flank that likely represent barriers to fluid flow and advective heat transport. However, seismicity and moment release in a third region at the northern end of the East Flank spread over time to form an elongated NE to SW structure, roughly parallel both to an elongated cluster of seismicity at the southern end of the East Flank and to regional fault traces mapped at the surface. Our results indicate that high

  5. Temporal integration: intentional sound discrimination does not modulate stimulus-driven processes in auditory event synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, Elyse; Winkler, István; Kreuzer, Judith; Saher, Marieke; Näätänen, Risto; Ritter, Walter

    2002-12-01

    Our previous study showed that the auditory context could influence whether two successive acoustic changes occurring within the temporal integration window (approximately 200ms) were pre-attentively encoded as a single auditory event or as two discrete events (Cogn Brain Res 12 (2001) 431). The aim of the current study was to assess whether top-down processes could influence the stimulus-driven processes in determining what constitutes an auditory event. Electroencepholagram (EEG) was recorded from 11 scalp electrodes to frequently occurring standard and infrequently occurring deviant sounds. Within the stimulus blocks, deviants either occurred only in pairs (successive feature changes) or both singly and in pairs. Event-related potential indices of change and target detection, the mismatch negativity (MMN) and the N2b component, respectively, were compared with the simultaneously measured performance in discriminating the deviants. Even though subjects could voluntarily distinguish the two successive auditory feature changes from each other, which was also indicated by the elicitation of the N2b target-detection response, top-down processes did not modify the event organization reflected by the MMN response. Top-down processes can extract elemental auditory information from a single integrated acoustic event, but the extraction occurs at a later processing stage than the one whose outcome is indexed by MMN. Initial processes of auditory event-formation are fully governed by the context within which the sounds occur. Perception of the deviants as two separate sound events (the top-down effects) did not change the initial neural representation of the same deviants as one event (indexed by the MMN), without a corresponding change in the stimulus-driven sound organization.

  6. Seismic analysis of a nonlinear airlock system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, S.N.

    1983-01-01

    The containment equipment airlock door of the Fast Flux Test Facility utilizes screw-type actuators as a push-pull mechanism for closing and opening operations. Special design features were used to protect these actuators from pressure differential loading. These made the door behave as a nonlinear system during a seismic event. Seismic analyses, utilizing the time history method, were conducted to determine the seismic loads on these scew-type actuators. Several sizes of actuators were examined. Procedures for determining the final optimum design are discussed in detail

  7. Testing 8000 years of submarine paleoseismicity record offshore western Algeria : First evidence for irregular seismic cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratzov, G.; Cattaneo, A.; Babonneau, N.; Yelles, K.; Bracene, R.; Deverchere, J.

    2012-12-01

    It is commonly assumed that stress buildup along a given fault is proportional to the time elapsed since the previous earthquake. Although the resulting « seismic gap » hypothesis suits well for moderate magnitude earthquakes (Mw 4-5), large events (Mw>6) are hardly predictable and depict great variation in recurrence intervals. Models based on stress transfer and interactions between faults argue that an earthquake may promote or delay the occurrence of next earthquakes on adjacent faults by increasing or lowering the level of static stress. The Algerian margin is a Cenozoic passive margin presently inverted within the slow convergence between Africa and Eurasia plates (~3-6 mm/yr). The western margin experienced two large earthquakes in 1954 (Orléansville, M 6.7) and 1980 (El Asnam, M 7.3), supporting an interaction between the two faults. To get meaningful statistics of large earthquakes recurrence intervals over numerous seismic cycles, we conducted a submarine paleoseismicity investigation based on turbidite chronostratigraphy. As evidenced on the Cascadia subduction zone, synchronous turbidites accumulated over a large area and originated from independent sources are likely triggered by an earthquake. To test the method on a slowly convergent margin, we analyze turbidites from three sediment cores collected during the Maradja (2003) and Prisme (2007) cruises off the 1954-1980 source areas. We use X-ray radioscopy, XRF major elements counter, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution to accurately discriminate turbidites from hemipelagites. We date turbidites by calculating hemipelagic sedimentation rates obtained with radiocarbon ages, and interpolate the rates between turbidites. Finally, the age of events is compared with the only paleoseismic study available on land (El Asnam fault). Fourteen possible seismic events are identified by the counting and correlation of turbidites over the last 8 ka. Most events are correlated with the

  8. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  9. PSMG switchgear seismic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehster, C.J.

    1977-01-01

    LOFT primary coolant system motor generator (PSMG) switchgear boxes were analyzed for sliding and overturning during a seismic event. Boxes are located in TAN-650, Room B-239, with the PSMG generators. Both boxes are sufficiently anchored to the floor

  10. Review of induced seismic hazard for Hot Dry Rock Project, Rosemanowes, Cornwall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skipp, B.O.; Woo, G.; Eldred, P.J.L.

    1991-01-01

    Geothermal energy installations perturb the earth's crust and so may provoke earthquakes. The 21st Dry Rock (HDR) Geothermal Project at Rosemanowes Quarry in Cornwall has given rise to low level unfelt acoustic emission and possibly small, felt earthquakes. This review of induced seismic hazard study examines the effects that the HDR Project could have on seismic events. Events which are modified by the project, in magnitude and time of occurrence, as well as those which might not have occurred at all were studied. From an examination of the literature and relevant seismicity models, a broad estimate of induced seismic hazard was established. (U.K)

  11. Second and Third Quarters Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel; AC Rohay

    1999-11-09

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. For the HSN, there were 270 triggers during the second quarter of fiscal year (FY) 1999 and 229 triggers during the third quarter on the primary recording system. During the second quarter, 22 seismic events were located; 11 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 6 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement, and 5 were quarry blasts. Two earthquakes appear to be related to major geologic structures, eight earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and seven earthquakes were random occurrences. During the third quarter, 23 seismic events were located; 11 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 4 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 4 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement, and 4 were quarry blasts. Five earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, six earthquakes formed a new swarm near the Horse Heavens Hills and Presser, Washington, and eight earthquakes were random occurrences. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometers during the second or third quarters of FY 1999.

  12. Towards Quantification of Glacier Dynamic Ice Loss through Passive Seismic Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, A.; Nuth, C.; Weidle, C.; Schweitzer, J.; Kohler, J.; Buscaino, G.

    2015-12-01

    Global glaciers and ice caps loose mass through calving, while existing models are currently not equipped to realistically predict dynamic ice loss. This is mainly because long-term continuous calving records, that would help to better understand fine scale processes and key climatic-dynamic feedbacks between calving, climate, terminus evolution and marine conditions, do not exist. Combined passive seismic/acoustic strategies are the only technique able to capture rapid calving events continuously, independent of daylight or meteorological conditions. We have produced such a continuous calving record for Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, using data from permanent seismic stations between 2001 and 2014. However, currently no method has been established in cryo-seismology to quantify the calving ice loss directly from seismic data. Independent calibration data is required to derive 1) a realistic estimation of the dynamic ice loss unobserved due to seismic noise and 2) a robust scaling of seismic calving signals to ice volumes. Here, we analyze the seismic calving record at Kronebreen and independent calving data in a first attempt to quantify ice loss directly from seismic records. We make use of a) calving flux data with weekly to monthly resolution obtained from satellite remote sensing and GPS data between 2007 and 2013, and b) direct, visual calving observations in two weeks in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, the magnitude-scaling property of seismic calving events is analyzed. We derive and discuss an empirical relation between seismic calving events and calving flux which for the first time allows to estimate a time series of calving volumes more than one decade back in time. Improving our model requires to incorporate more precise, high-resolution calibration data. A new field campaign will combine innovative, multi-disciplinary monitoring techniques to measure calving ice volumes and dynamic ice-ocean interactions simultaneously with terrestrial laser

  13. Seismicity, seismic input and site effects in the Sahel-Algiers region (north Algeria)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Oussadou, F.; Vaccari, F.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G.F.; Benouar, D.

    2005-07-01

    Algiers city is located in a seismogenic zone. To reduce the impact of seismic risk in this capital city, a realistic modelling of the seismic ground motion using the hybrid method that combines the finite-differences method and the modal summation, is conducted. For this purpose, a complete database in terms of geological, geophysical and earthquake data is constructed. A critical re-appraisal of the seismicity of the zone (2.25 deg. E-3.50 deg. E, 36.50 deg. N-37.00 deg. N) is performed and an earthquake list, for the period 1359-2002, is compiled. The analysis of existing and newly retrieved macroseismic information allowed the definition of earthquake parameters of macroseismic events for which a degree of reliability is assigned. Geological cross-sections have been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the city, caused by the 1989 Mont-Chenoua and the 1924 Douera earthquakes; a set of synthetic seismograms and response spectral ratio is produced for Algiers. The numerical results show that the soft sediments in Algiers centre are responsible of the noticed amplification of the seismic ground motion. (author)

  14. A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    of the equivalent Wood-Anderson displacement recordings. The moment magnitude (Mw) is then estimated from the inversion of displacement spectra. The duration magnitude (Md) is rapidly computed, based on a simple and automatic measurement of the seismic wave coda duration. Starting from the magnitude estimates, other relevant pieces of information are also computed, such as the corner frequency, the seismic moment, the source radius and the seismic energy. The ground-shaking maps on a Google map are produced, for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and instrumental intensity (in SHAKEMAP® format), or a plot of the measured peak ground values. Furthermore, based on a specific decisional scheme, the automatic discrimination between local earthquakes occurred within the network and regional/teleseismic events occurred outside the network is performed. Finally, for largest events, if a consistent number of P-wave polarity reading are available, the focal mechanism is also computed. For each event, all of the available pieces of information are stored in a local database and the results of the automatic analyses are published on an interactive web page. "The Bulletin" shows a map with event location and stations, as well as a table listing all the events, with the associated parameters. The catalogue fields are the event ID, the origin date and time, latitude, longitude, depth, Ml, Mw, Md, the number of triggered stations, the S-displacement spectra, and shaking maps. Some of these entries also provide additional information, such as the focal mechanism (when available). The picked traces are uploaded in the database and from the web interface of the Bulletin the traces can be download for more specific analysis. This innovative software represents a smart solution, with a friendly and interactive interface, for high-level analysis of seismic data analysis and it may represent a relevant tool not only for seismologists, but also for non

  15. Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

    2018-03-01

    A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

  16. Specific issues for seismic performance of power plant equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nawrotzki, Peter [GERB Vibration Control Systems, Berlin (Germany)

    2010-01-15

    Power plant machinery can be dynamically decoupled from the substructure by the effective use of helical steel springs and viscous dampers. Turbine foundations, coal mills, boiler feed pumps and other machine foundations benefit from this type of elastic support systems to mitigate the transmission of operational vibration. The application of these devices may also be used to protect against earthquakes and other catastrophic events, i.e. airplane crash, of particular importance in nuclear facilities. This article illustrates basic principles of elastic support systems and applications on power plant equipment and buildings in medium and high seismic areas. Spring damper combinations with special stiffness properties are used to reduce seismic acceleration levels of turbine components and other safety or non-safety related structures. For turbine buildings, the integration of the turbine sub-structure into the machine building can further reduce stress levels in all structural members. The application of this seismic protection strategy for a spent fuel storage tank in a high seismic area is also discussed. Safety in nuclear facilities is of particular importance and recent seismic events and the resulting damage in these facilities again brings up the discussion. One of the latest events is the 2007 Chuetsu earthquake in Japan. The resulting damage in the Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant can be found in several reports, e.g. in Yamashita. (orig.)

  17. Field site investigation: Effect of mine seismicity on groundwater hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ofoegbu, G.I.; Hsiung, S.; Chowdhury, A.H.

    1995-04-01

    The results of a field investigation on the groundwater-hydrologic effect of mining-induced earthquakes are presented in this report. The investigation was conducted at the Lucky Friday Mine, a silver-lead-zinc mine in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of Idaho. The groundwater pressure in sections of three fracture zones beneath the water table was monitored over a 24-mo period. The fracture zones were accessed through a 360-m-long inclined borehole, drilled from the 5,700 level station of the mine. The magnitude, source location, and associated ground motions of mining-induced seismic events were also monitored during the same period, using an existing seismic instrumentation network for the mine, augmented with additional instruments installed specifically for the project by the center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA). More than 50 seismic events of Richter magnitude 1.0 or larger occurred during the monitoring period. Several of these events caused the groundwater pressure to increase, whereas a few caused it to decrease. Generally, the groundwater pressure increased as the magnitude of seismic event increased; for an event of a given magnitude, the groundwater pressure increased by a smaller amount as the distance of the observation point from the source of the event increased. The data was examined using regression analysis. Based on these results, it is suggested that the effect of earthquakes on groundwater flow may be better understood through mechanistic modeling. The mechanical processes and material behavior that would need to be incorporated in such a model are examined. They include a description of the effect of stress change on the permeability and water storage capacity of a fracture rock mass; transient fluid flow; and the generation and transmission of seismic waves through the rock mass

  18. Continuous recording of seismic signals in Alpine permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausmann, H.; Krainer, K.; Staudinger, M.; Brückl, E.

    2009-04-01

    Over the past years various geophysical methods were applied to study the internal structure and the temporal variation of permafrost whereof seismic is of importance. For most seismic investigations in Alpine permafrost 24-channel equipment in combination with long data and trigger cables is used. Due to the harsh environment source and geophone layouts are often limited to 2D profiles. With prospect for future 3D-layouts we introduce an alternative of seismic equipment that can be used for several applications in Alpine permafrost. This study is focussed on controlled and natural source seismic experiments in Alpine permafrost using continuous data recording. With recent data from an ongoing project ("Permafrost in Austria") we will highlight the potential of the used seismic equipment for three applications: (a) seismic permafrost mapping of unconsolidated sediments, (b) seismic tomography in rock mass, and (c) passive seismic monitoring of rock falls. Single recording units (REFTEK 130, 6 channels) are used to continuously record the waveforms of both the seismic signals and a trigger signal. The combination of a small number of recording units with different types of geophones or a trigger allow numerous applications in Alpine permafrost with regard to a high efficiency and flexible seismic layouts (2D, 3D, 4D). The efficiency of the light and robust seismic equipment is achieved by the simple acquisition and the flexible and fast deployment of the (omni-directional) geophones. Further advantages are short (data and trigger) cables and the prevention of trigger errors. The processing of the data is aided by 'Seismon' which is an open source software project based on Matlab® and MySQL (see SM1.0). For active-source experiments automatic stacking of the seismic signals is implemented. For passive data a program for automatic detection of events (e.g. rock falls) is available which allows event localization. In summer 2008 the seismic equipment was used for the

  19. Seismic Margin Assessment for Research Reactor using Fragility based Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Oh, Jinho; Lee, Jong-Min; Ryu, Jeong-Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The research reactor has been often subjected to external hazards during the design lifetime. Especially, a seismic event can be one of significant threats to the failure of structure system of the research reactor. This failure is possibly extended to the direct core damage of the reactor. For this purpose, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage under an earthquake accident is developed. The failure probabilities of basic events are evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions. Finally, the plant-level seismic margin is investigated by the fault tree analysis combining with fragility data and the critical path is identified. The plant-level probabilistic seismic margin assessment using the fragility based fault tree analysis was performed for quantifying the safety of research reactor to a seismic hazard. For this, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage of the reactor under a seismic accident was developed. The failure probabilities of basic events were evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions.

  20. Optimal Retrofit Scheme for Highway Network under Seismic Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxi Huang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Many older highway bridges in the United States (US are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake. According to the most recent American Society of Civil Engineers’ infrastructure report card, one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones. To improve this situation, at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities. In this study, a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework. A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state. As an empirical case study, the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US, Charleston, South Carolina. The developed modeling framework, on average, will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45% with a cost increase of only $15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only $32m for the Mw 7.0 event.

  1. Long-term changes of the glacial seismicity: case study from Spitsbergen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajek, Wojciech; Trojanowski, Jacek; Malinowski, Michał

    2016-04-01

    Changes in global temperature balance have proved to have a major impact on the cryosphere, and therefore withdrawing glaciers are the symbol of the warming climate. Our study focuses on year-to-year changes in glacier-generated seismicity. We have processed 7-year long continuous seismological data recorded by the HSP broadband station located in the proximity of Hansbreen glacier (Hornsund, southern Spitsbergen), obtaining seismic activity distribution between 2008 and 2014. We developed a new fuzzy logic algorithm to distinguish between glacier- and non-glacier-origin events. The algorithm takes into account the frequency of seismic signal and the energy flow in certain time interval. Our research has revealed that the number of detected glacier-origin events over last two years has doubled. Annual events distribution correlates well with temperature and precipitation curves, illustrating characteristic yearlong behaviour of glacier seismic activity. To further support our observations, we have analysed 5-year long distribution of glacier-origin tremors detected in the vicinity of the Kronebreen glacier using KBS broadband station located in Ny-Ålesund (western Spitsbergen). We observe a steady increase in the number of detected events. detected each year, however not as significant as for Hornsund dataset.

  2. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saari, J.; Malm, M.

    2011-11-01

    Excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2010 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km *2 km *2 km cube surrounding the ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2010. In March 2010, the seismic network was upgraded by a new triaxial borehole seismometer in order to improve the sensitivity and the depth resolution inside the ONKALO block. The sensor is the second one inside the ONKALO. New PC for data processing and analysis with the new version of Linux operating system was installed. Also all software packages for data processing and analysis and for visualization were upgraded. The network has operated continuously in 2010. Altogether 1089 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Most of them (943) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semi-regional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (895 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the semi-regional area range from M L = -1

  3. Analysis of induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Maercklin, N.; Matrullo, E.; Orefice, A.; Amoroso, O.; Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Zollo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Fluid injection, steam extraction, and reservoir stimulation in geothermal systems lead to induced seismicity. While in rare cases induced events may be large enough to pose a hazard, on the other hand the microseismicity provides information on the extent and the space-time varying properties of the reservoir. Therefore, microseismic monitoring is important, both for mitigation of unwanted effects of industrial operations and for continuous assessment of reservoir conditions. Here we analyze induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field in California, a vapor-dominated field with the top of the main steam reservoir some 1-3 km below the surface. Commercial exploitation began in the 1960s, and the seismicity increased with increasing field development. We focus our analyses on induced seismicity recorded between August 2007 and October 2011. Our calibrated waveform database contains some 15000 events with magnitudes between 1.0 and 4.5 and recorded by the LBNL Geysers/Calpine surface seismic network. We associated all data with events from the NCEDC earthquake catalog and re-picked first arrival times. Using selected events with at least 20 high-quality P-wave picks, we determined a minimum 1-D velocity model using VELEST. A well-constrained P-velocity model shows a sharp velocity increase at 1-2 km depth (from 3 to 5 km/s) and then a gradient-like trend down to about 5 km depth, where velocities reach values of 6-7 km/s. The station corrections show coherent, relatively high, positive travel time delays in the NW zone, thus indicating a strong lateral variation of the P-wave velocities. We determined an average Vp-to-Vs ratio of 1.67, which is consistent with estimates from other authors for the same time period. The events have been relocated in the new model using a non-linear probabilistic methods. The seismicity appears spatially diffused in a 15x10 km2 area elongated in NW-SE direction, and earthquake depths range between 0 and 6 km. As in previous

  4. Quake warnings, seismic culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

  5. Relays undergo seismic tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, J.C.

    1977-01-01

    Utilities are required by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to document that seismic vibration will not adversely affect critical electrical equipment. Seismic testing should be designed to determine the malfunction level (fragility testing). Input possibilities include a continuous sine, a decaying sine, a sine beat, random vibrations, and combinations of random vibrations and sine beat. The sine beat most accurately simulates a seismic event. Test frequencies have a broad range in order to accommodate a variety of relay types and cabinet mounting. Simulation of motion along three axes offers several options, but is best achieved by three in-phase single-axis vibration machines that are less likely to induce testing fatigue failure. Consensus on what constitutes relay failure favors a maximum two microsecond discontinuity. Performance tests should be conducted for at least two of the following: (1) nonoperating modes, (2) operating modes, or (3) the transition above the two modes, with the monitoring mode documented for all three. Results should specify a capability curve of maximum safe seismic acceleration and a graph plotting acceleration with sine-beat frequency

  6. 300-MHz optical discriminator-counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turko, B.; Lo, C.C.

    1981-07-01

    The prediction of future CO 2 content in the atmosphere is not completely credible because the oceanographers and terrestrial ecologists do not agree on the global CO 2 balance. Very precise measurements of O 2 /N 2 ratio using Raman scattering over a few years' period could provide important information and lead to the explanation of the disparity in the atmospheric CO 2 balance. An optical discriminator-counter has been developed to count closely spaced optical events in the few photon level. Simulated optical events as close as 2.5 ns apart had been positively detected by using selected photomultipliers and optimized discriminators. Testing of the optical discriminator-counter was done by using an electrical pulse pair spaced 3 ns apart and also by a similar optical pulse pair generated by fast light-emitting diode. The photomultiplier is capable of counting an average single photoelectron pulse frequency of 50 MHz and has a sensitive detecting area of 50 mm in diameter. The discriminator performance is discussed

  7. Micro-seismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hanchen; Alkhalifah, Tariq

    2018-03-01

    At the heart of micro-seismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source micro-seismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional micro-seismic source locating methods require, in many cases manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image micro-seismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modeled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers is calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

  8. Micro-seismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Hanchen

    2018-03-26

    At the heart of micro-seismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source micro-seismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional micro-seismic source locating methods require, in many cases manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image micro-seismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modeled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers is calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

  9. Impacts of seismic activity on long-term repository performance at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, J.H.; Wilson, M.L.; Borns, D.J.; Arnold, B.W.

    1995-01-01

    Several effects of seismic activity on the release of radionuclides from a potential repository at Yucca Mountain are quantified. Future seismic events are predicted using data from the seismic hazard analysis conducted for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Phenomenological models are developed, including rockfall (thermal-mechanical and seismic) in unbackfilled emplacement drifts, container damage caused by fault displacement within the repository, and flow-path chance caused by changes in strain. Using the composite-porosity flow model (relatively large-scale, regular percolation), seismic events show little effect on total-system releases; using the weeps flow model (episodic pulses of flow in locally saturated fractures), container damage and flow-path changes cause over an order of magnitude increase in releases. In separate calculations using, more realistic representations of faulting, water-table rise caused by seismically induced changes in strain are seen to be higher than previously estimated by others, but not sufficient to reach a potential repository

  10. Seismic induced earth pressures in buried vaults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.

    1994-01-01

    The magnitude and distribution of earth pressures acting on buried structures and induced by a seismic event are considered in this paper. A soil-structure-interaction analysis is performed for typical Department of Energy high level waste storage tanks using a lumped parameter model. The resulting soil pressure distributions are determined and compared with the static soil pressure to assess the design significance of the seismic induced soil pressures. It is found that seismic pressures do not control design unless the peak ground acceleration exceeds about 0.3 G. The effect of soil non linearities (resulting from local soil failure) are also found to have little effect on the predictions of the seismic response of the buried structure. The seismic induced pressures are found to be very similar to those predicted using the elastic model in ASCE 4-86

  11. Anthropenic seismic activities induced by drilling in deep underground strata; Anthropen induzierte seismische Aktivitaeten bei Nutzung des tiefen Untergrundes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janczik, Sebastian; Kaltschmitt, Martin [Technische Univ. Hamburg-Harburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Umwelttechnik und Energiewirtschaft; Rueter, Horst [HarbourDom GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2010-08-15

    Although anthropogenic seismic activities so far have not caused damage to persons and property, they have been the cause of highly emotional discussions in the media, and some are even demanding a ban on geothermal heat recovery. This has caused great concern among the public. A fact-based analysis of the fundamentals of these seismic events in the context of other anthropogenic seismic events shows that the potential seismic effects are far less important than other anthropogenic seismic events. Further, it will in all probability be possible to keep them under control even on a long-term basis. (orig.)

  12. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  13. Patterns of seismicity in a complex volcanic crisis at Brava, Cabo Verde

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, B. V. E.; Day, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Brava is the smallest inhabited island of the Cape Verde archipelago, with an area of 62.5 km2 and a population of 6000. Geologically recent volcanism on Brava has produced lava (including carbonatite) flows, phonolite lava domes, pyroclastic density current deposits, and many phreatomagmatic craters in central Brava (where most of the population lives). Recent geological studies indicate that last eruptive period is about 1000 years old. Brava has experienced recurrent seismic swarms and felt earthquakes. The first permanent seismic station was installed in 1999, and a small network in 2011. From then until 2015 the seismic rate was near constant with sporadic peaks. Most seismic events were located offshore and associated with submarine volcanoes. However, the pattern of activity has been very different since 25th September 2015, when a M4 earthquake occurred in the submarine slopes of Brava. Subsequently, the seismicity became very complex with frequent volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarms beneath Brava itself, with a few offshore events in some months. In addition, long-period, hybrid and hydrothermal events and likely very weak volcanic tremor episodes have been recorded. These non-VT events support the hypothesis that magma emplacement beneath Brava is at the origin of the abnormal seismic activity. The VT swarms indicate deformation around the magma body and possible dike intrusions, and there are indications of perturbation of a shallow hydrothermal system. The largest swarm occurred on the 1st and 2nd August 2016, with almost 1000 shallow events, including a M3.7 VT earthquake, medium-frequency events and weak volcanic tremor. An alert for a possible eruption was issued and a village (about 300 people) was evacuated as a precaution. Distributions of the cumulative number of events with depth in the main swarms suggest that the hypocenters are becoming shallower with time. Thus a possible eruption in the near future cannot be ruled out.

  14. Nonlinear seismic analysis of a large sodium pump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, S.N.

    1985-01-01

    The bearings and seismic bumpers used in a large sodium pump of a typical breeder reactor plant may need to be characterized by nonlinear springs and gaps. Then, nonlinear seismic analysis utilizing the time-history method is an effective way to predict the pump behaviors during seismic events, especially at those bearing and seismic bumper areas. In this study, synthesized time histories were developed based on specified seismic response spectra. A nonlinear seismic analysis was then conducted and results were compared with those obtained by linear seismic analysis using the response spectrum method. In contrast to some previous nonlinear analysis trends, the bearing impact forces predicted by nonlinear analysis were higher than those obtained by the response spectrum method. This might be due to the larger gaps and stiffer bearing supports used in this specific pump. However, at locations distant from the impact source, the nonlinear seismic analysis has predicted slightly less responses than those obtained by linear seismic analysis. The seismically induced bearing impact forces were used to study the friction induced thermal stresses on the hydrostatic bearing and to predict the coastdown time of the pump. Results and discussions are presented

  15. Nonlinear seismic analysis of a large sodium pump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, S.N.

    1985-01-01

    The bearings and seismic bumpers used in a large sodium pump of a typical breeder reactor plant may need to be characterized by nonlinear springs and gaps. Then, nonlinear seismic analysis utilizing the time-history method is an effective way to predict the pump behaviors during seismic events - especially at those bearing and seismic bumper areas. In this study, synthesized time histories were developed based on specified seismic response spectra. A nonlinear seismic analysis was then conducted and results were compared with those obtained by linear seismic analysis using the response spectrum method. In contrast to some previous nonlinear analysis trends, the bearing impact forces predicted by nonlinear analysis were higher than those obtained by the response spectrum method. This might be due to the larger gaps and stiffer bearing supports used in this specific pump. However, at locations distant from the impact source, the nonlinear seismic analysis has predicted slightly less responses than those obtained by linear seismic analysis. The seismically induced bearing impact forces were used to study the friction induced thermal stresses on the hydrostatic bearing and to predict the coastdown time of the pump. Results and discussions are presented

  16. Seismic Monitoring of Bedload Transport in a Steep Mountain Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, D. L.; Finnegan, N. J.; Brodsky, E. E.; Turowski, J. M.; Wyss, C. R.; Badoux, A.

    2014-12-01

    Predicting river channel evolution relies on an understanding of when and at what rate coarse sediment moves in a channel. Unfortunately, our predictive abilities are limited by the logistical challenges and potential dangers inherent in current techniques for monitoring sediment transport during flood events, especially in steep, highly active landscapes. However, the use of seismic signals near rivers shows promise as a safe, low-cost method for studying sediment transport in these settings. Seismic signals near rivers are partially generated by both water turbulence and bedload sediment particles impacting the river bed during transport. Here, we attempt to isolate the seismic signatures of discharge and bedload transport in a steep mountain channel by examining high-frequency broadband seismic data from the well-studied Erlenbach stream (local slope of ~10%) in the Swiss Prealps. The extensive monitoring infrastructure and long history of sediment transport data at this field site allow us to independently constrain discharge, precipitation, and bedload transport during flood events over a two month field campaign. We perform a general linear least squares inversion of the seismic data, exploiting times with isolated rain or discharge events, to identify the spectral signals of water turbulence, rain, and bedload sediment transport. We find that the signal generated by rain exhibits a roughly broadband spectrum, while discharge and sediment transport exhibit power primarily in lower frequency bands. Our preliminary results indicate that with only precipitation and discharge data, it is possible to isolate the seismic signal of bedload transport in steep fluvial environments. Seismic studies may therefore have the potential to revolutionize our ability to monitor and understand these environments.

  17. Fluid discrimination based on rock physics templates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Qian; Yin, Xingyao; Li, Chao

    2015-01-01

    Reservoir fluid discrimination is an indispensable part of seismic exploration. Reliable fluid discrimination helps to decrease the risk of exploration and to increase the success ratio of drilling. There are many kinds of fluid indicators that are used in fluid discriminations, most of which are single indicators. But single indicators do not always work well under complicated reservoir conditions. Therefore, combined fluid indicators are needed to increase accuracies of discriminations. In this paper, we have proposed an alternative strategy for the combination of fluid indicators. An alternative fluid indicator, the rock physics template-based indicator (RPTI) has been derived to combine the advantages of two single indicators. The RPTI is more sensitive to the contents of fluid than traditional indicators. The combination is implemented based on the characteristic of the fluid trend in the rock physics template, which means few subjective factors are involved. We also propose an inversion method to assure the accuracy of the RPTI input data. The RPTI profile is an intuitionistic interpretation of fluid content. Real data tests demonstrate the applicability and validity. (paper)

  18. ANZA Seismic Network- From Monitoring to Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, F.; Eakin, J.; Martynov, V.; Newman, R.; Offield, G.; Hindley, A.; Astiz, L.

    2007-05-01

    The ANZA Seismic Network (http:eqinfo.ucsd.edu) utilizes broadband and strong motion sensors with 24-bit dataloggers combined with real-time telemetry to monitor local and regional seismicity in southernmost California. The ANZA network provides real-time data to the IRIS DMC, California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), other regional networks, and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), in addition to providing near real-time information and monitoring to the greater San Diego community. Twelve high dynamic range broadband and strong motion sensors adjacent to the San Jacinto Fault zone contribute data for earthquake source studies and continue the monitoring of the seismic activity of the San Jacinto fault initiated 24 years ago. Five additional stations are located in the San Diego region with one more station on San Clemente Island. The ANZA network uses the advance wireless networking capabilities of the NSF High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (http:hpwren.ucsd.edu) to provide the communication infrastructure for the real-time telemetry of Anza seismic stations. The ANZA network uses the Antelope data acquisition software. The combination of high quality hardware, communications, and software allow for an annual network uptime in excess of 99.5% with a median annual station real-time data return rate of 99.3%. Approximately 90,000 events, dominantly local sources but including regional and teleseismic events, comprise the ANZA network waveform database. All waveform data and event data are managed using the Datascope relational database. The ANZA network data has been used in a variety of scientific research including detailed structure of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, earthquake source physics, spatial and temporal studies of aftershocks, array studies of teleseismic body waves, and array studies on the source of microseisms. To augment the location, detection, and high frequency observations of the seismic source spectrum from local

  19. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  20. Automated Processing Workflow for Ambient Seismic Recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, A. J.; Shragge, J.

    2017-12-01

    Structural imaging using body-wave energy present in ambient seismic data remains a challenging task, largely because these wave modes are commonly much weaker than surface wave energy. In a number of situations body-wave energy has been extracted successfully; however, (nearly) all successful body-wave extraction and imaging approaches have focused on cross-correlation processing. While this is useful for interferometric purposes, it can also lead to the inclusion of unwanted noise events that dominate the resulting stack, leaving body-wave energy overpowered by the coherent noise. Conversely, wave-equation imaging can be applied directly on non-correlated ambient data that has been preprocessed to mitigate unwanted energy (i.e., surface waves, burst-like and electromechanical noise) to enhance body-wave arrivals. Following this approach, though, requires a significant preprocessing effort on often Terabytes of ambient seismic data, which is expensive and requires automation to be a feasible approach. In this work we outline an automated processing workflow designed to optimize body wave energy from an ambient seismic data set acquired on a large-N array at a mine site near Lalor Lake, Manitoba, Canada. We show that processing ambient seismic data in the recording domain, rather than the cross-correlation domain, allows us to mitigate energy that is inappropriate for body-wave imaging. We first develop a method for window selection that automatically identifies and removes data contaminated by coherent high-energy bursts. We then apply time- and frequency-domain debursting techniques to mitigate the effects of remaining strong amplitude and/or monochromatic energy without severely degrading the overall waveforms. After each processing step we implement a QC check to investigate improvements in the convergence rates - and the emergence of reflection events - in the cross-correlation plus stack waveforms over hour-long windows. Overall, the QC analyses suggest that

  1. Three decades of seismic activity at Mt. Vesuvius: 1972-1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Kuznetzov, Igor; Kronrod, Tanya; Peresan, Antonella; Sarao, Angela; Panza, Gluliano F.

    2002-06-01

    We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma- Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972-2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed by a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analyses of the b value in the whole period evidences a well defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8, at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identity a sub-structure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with large isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for almost all the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro- earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit to outline any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a general increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a

  2. SIG-VISA: Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D.; Mayeda, K. M.; Myers, S. C.; Russell, S.

    2013-12-01

    Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software; however, while such detections may constitute a useful summary of station activity, they discard large amounts of information present in the original recorded signal. We present SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a system for seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By directly modeling the recorded signal, our approach incorporates additional information unavailable to detection-based methods, enabling higher sensitivity and more accurate localization using techniques such as waveform matching. SIG-VISA's Bayesian forward model of seismic signal envelopes includes physically-derived models of travel times and source characteristics as well as Gaussian process (kriging) statistical models of signal properties that combine interpolation of historical data with extrapolation of learned physical trends. Applying Bayesian inference, we evaluate the model on earthquakes as well as the 2009 DPRK test event, demonstrating a waveform matching effect as part of the probabilistic inference, along with results on event localization and sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate increased sensitivity from signal-based modeling, in which the SIGVISA signal model finds statistical evidence for arrivals even at stations for which the IMS station processing failed to register any detection.

  3. Seismic analysis of the in-pile test section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J. M.; Park, K. N.; Chi, D. Y.; Park, S. K.; Sim, B. S.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, C. Y.; Kim, Y. J. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-07-01

    This study gives the results of the seismic analysis of the IPS (In Pile Section) with lower bracket support. The results cover the natural frequency and seismic response of the IPS for the SSE and OBE events. An FE (Finite Element) model which includes the two vessels of the IPS and its support structure were analyzed by ABAQUS.

  4. Seismic characteristics of the area around the Philippine Research Reactor (PRR-1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz, L.R. de la; Palattao, M.V.B.; Estacio, J.F.; Ragiles, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    The seismic characteristics of the PRR-1 site are discussed. A study was made about seismicity, acceleration values and the recent seismic history of the site. The incidence of seismic events in Manila and Quezon City and their intensities were also recorded and plotted. The liquefaction potential was calculated. No zone of liquefaction was found existing in the site area. (Auth.). 6 tabs., 18 refs., 7 figs

  5. Paleoseismology under sea: First evidence for irregular seismic cycles during Holocene off Algeria from turbidites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratzov, Gueorgui; Cattaneo, Antonio; Babonneau, Nathalie; Déverchere, Jacques; Yelles, Karim; Bracene, Rabah

    2013-04-01

    According to simple models, stress build-up along a given fault is proportional to the time elapsed since the previous earthquake. Although the resulting « seismic gap » hypothesis suits well for moderate magnitude earthquake (Mw 4-5), large events (Mw>6) are hardly predictable and show great variation in recurrence intervals. Thus, models based on stress transfer and interactions between faults suggest that an earthquake may haste or delay the occurrence of next earthquake on adjacent fault by increasing or lowering the level of static stress. Here, we show that meaningful information of large earthquakes recurrence intervals over several seismic cycles may be obtained using turbidite record offshore the Algerian margin (Mediterranean Sea), an area prone to relatively large (M~7) earthquakes in historical times. Indeed, as evidenced on the Cascadia subduction zone, synchroneous turbidites over a large area and originated from independent sources, are most likely triggered by an earthquake. To test the method on this slowly convergent margin, we analysed turbidites in 3 sediment cores collected off the area shaken by the 1980 Ms 7.3 El Asnam and 1954 M6.7 Orléansville earthquakes. We used X-ray radioscopy, XRF major elements counter, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution to accurately discriminate turbidites (~instantaneous deposit) from hemipelagites (continuous background sedimentation). We dated turbidites by calculating hemipelagic sedimentation rates obtained with AMS radiocarbon ages, and applied the rates between turbidites. Finally, the age of events was compared to the only paleoseismic investigation available onland. We found that 10 to 25 turbidites deposited as single or multiple pulses over the last ~8ka. Once correlated from site to site, they support 14 seismic events. Most events are correlated with the paleoseismic record of the El Asnam fault, but uncorrelated events support that other faults were active. Only the first of the

  6. Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel; AC Rohay

    2000-09-01

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its con-tractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (E WRN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The HSN uses 21 sites and the EWRN uses 36 sites; both networks share 16 sites. The networks have 46 combined data channels because Gable Butte and Frenchman Hills East are three-component sites. The reconfiguration of the telemetry and recording systems was completed during the first quarter. All leased telephone lines have been eliminated and radio telemetry is now used exclusively. For the HSN, there were 818 triggers on two parallel detection and recording systems during the third quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2000. Thirteen seismic events were located by the Hanford Seismic Network within the reporting region of 46-47{degree} N latitude and 119-120{degree} W longitude; 7 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 1 was an earthquake in the pre-basalt sediments, and 5 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement. Three earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 10 earthquakes were random occurrences. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometers during the third quarter of FY 2000.

  7. Coseismic and Early Post-Seismic Slip Distributions of the 2012 Emilia (Northern Italy) Seismic Sequence: New Insights in the Faults Activation and Resulting Stress Changes on Adjacent Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.

    2015-12-01

    The 2012 Emilia sequence (main shocks Mw 6.1 May 20 and Mw 5.9 May 29) ruptured two thrust segments of a ~E-W trending fault system of the buried Ferrara Arc, along a portion of the compressional system of the Apennines that had remained silent during past centuries. Here we use the rupture geometry constrained by the aftershocks and new geodetic data (levelling, InSAR and GPS measurements) to estimate an improved coseismic slip distribution of the two main events. In addition, we use post-seismic displacements, described and analyzed here for the first time, to infer a brand new post-seismic slip distribution of the May 29 event in terms of afterslip on the same coseismic plane. In particular, in this study we use a catalog of precisely relocated aftershocks to explore the different proposed geometries of the proposed thrust segments that have been published so far and estimate the coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions of the ruptured planes responsible for the two main seismic events from a joint inversion of the geodetic data.Joint inversion results revealed that the two earthquakes ruptured two distinct planar thrust faults, characterized by single main coseismic patches located around the centre of the rupture planes, in agreement with the seismological and geological information pointing out the Ferrara and the Mirandola thrust faults, as the causative structures of the May 20 and May 29 main shocks respectively.The preferred post-seismic slip distribution related to the 29 May event, yielded to a main patch of afterslip (equivalent to a Mw 5.6 event) located westward and up-dip of the main coseismic patch, suggesting that afterslip was triggered at the edges of the coseismic asperity. We then use these co- and post-seismic slip distribution models to calculate the stress changes on adjacent fault.

  8. First Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

    2009-03-15

    The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. This includes three recently acquired Transportable Array stations located at Cold Creek, Didier Farms, and Phinney Hill. For the Hanford Seismic Network, ten local earthquakes were recorded during the first quarter of fiscal year 2009. All earthquakes were considered as “minor” with magnitudes (Mc) less than 1.0. Two earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km), most likely in the Columbia River basalts; five earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km), most likely in the sub-basalt sediments); and three earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the basement. Geographically, four earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas and six earthquakes were classified as random events.

  9. Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed along the 1976 Tangshan fault, north China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Le; Chen, Qi-Fu; Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin

    2007-12-01

    Spatial and temporal features of the seismicity occurring along the Tangshan fault in 2001-2006 were investigated with data recorded by the Beijing metropolitan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity with the double difference method clearly exhibits a dextral bend in the middle of the fault. More than 85% of the earthquakes were found in the two clusters forming the northern segment where relatively small coseismic slips were observed during the 1976 M7.8 earthquake. The b values calculated from the seismicity occurring in the northern and southern segment are 1.03 +/- 0.02 and 0.85 +/- 0.03, respectively. The distinct seismicity and b values are probably the collective effect of the fault geometry and the regional stress field that has an ENE-WSW oriented compression. Using cross-correlation and fine relocation analyses, we also identified a total of 21 doublets and 25 multiplets that make up >50% of the total seismicity. Most of the sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Based on a quasi-periodic sequence, we obtained a fault slip rate of <=2.6 mm/yr at ~15 km, which is consistent with surface GPS measurements.

  10. Letter report seismic shutdown system failure mode and effect analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KECK, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The Supply Ventilation System Seismic Shutdown ensures that the 234-52 building supply fans, the dry air process fans and vertical development calciner are shutdown following a seismic event. This evaluates the failure modes and determines the effects of the failure modes

  11. The natural seismic hazard and induced seismicity of the european HDR (hot dry rock) geothermal energy project at Soultz-sous-Forets (Bas-Rhin, France); Alea sismique naturel et sismicite induite du projet geothermique europeen RCS (roche chaude seche) de Soultz-sous-Forets (Bas-Rhin, France)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helm, J A

    1996-06-07

    Development of the Soultz-sous-Forets HDR (Hot Dry Rock) geothermal energy project will involve important fluid injections which will induce micro-seismic events. This thesis discusses the natural seismicity of the region and induced seismicity associated with fluid injections. A catalogue of all historical and instrument seismicity of the Soultz-sous-Forets (SSF) region has been compiled. This seismicity does not correspond to movements along the major tectonic features of the region. The area around SSF has been identified as being one where high heat flow corresponds to low seismicity. The largest well documented seismic event in the region which took place in 1952 had an epicentral intensity of VI. All important data pertaining to the series of seismic events which took place in the region from August to October 1952 have been collected and are presented. This work details the installation and operation of a permanent 3 station network of accelerometers and seismometers around the HDR site. Also the installation and operation of a mobile network of vertical seismometers during fluid injections. 167 micro-seismic events were recorded on the surface network, with magnitudes from -0.5 to 1.9. The preferential alignment of the micro-seismic cloud is N160 deg. Individual focal mechanisms of the larger seismic events correspond to an extensional tectonic regime. Stress inversion of P wave polarities indicates that the maximum stress is vertical and the intermediate and minimum stress axes horizontal. The largest of the horizontal stresses is orientated N124 deg and the smallest N34 deg. Induced seismic movement is taking place on pre-existing fractures controlled by the in situ stress seismic movement is taking place on pre-existing tectonic fractures controlled by the in situ stress field, and the largest of the induced events had a magnitude 1.9. This level of seismicity does not pose any environmental hazard to the region around Soultz-sous-Forets. (author) 151

  12. Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

  13. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  14. Nonlinear acoustic/seismic waves in earthquake processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Paul A.

    2012-01-01

    Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering—one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today—which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering of the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge—the granular material located between the fault blocks—is key to the triggering phenomenon.

  15. Pre-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Fault Slip in the Northern Chile Seismic Gap Associated with the April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, M.; Duputel, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J. F.; Jiang, J.; Jolivet, R.; Kanamori, H.; Moore, A. W.; Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Owen, S. E.; Riel, B. V.; Rivera, L. A.; Carrizo, D.; Cotte, N.; Jara, J.; Klotz, J.; Norabuena, E. O.; Ortega, I.; Socquet, A.; Samsonov, S. V.; Valderas Bermejo, M.

    2014-12-01

    The April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake occurred in Northern Chile, within a long recognized seismic gap in the Central Andean region that last experienced major megathrust events in 1868 and 1877. We built a continuous GPS network starting in 2005, with the ultimate goal of understanding the kinematics and dynamics of this portion of the subduction zone. Using observations from this network, as well as others in the region, combined with InSAR, seismic and tsunami observations, we obtain estimates of inter-seismic, co-seismic and initial post-seismic fault slip using an internally consistent Bayesian unregularized approach. We evaluate the extent of spatial overlap between regions of fault slip during this different time periods. Of particular interest to this event is the extent and nature of any geodetic evidence for transient slow fault slip preceding the Pisagua Earthquake mainshock. To this end, we compare daily and high rate GPS solutions, the former of which shows long period transient motion started about 15 days before the mainshock and with maximum registered amplitude of 14.2 +/- 2 [mm] at site PSGA. Contrary to published findings, we find that pre-seismic deformation seen by the GPS network can be explained as coseismic motion associated with the multiple foreshocks.

  16. Optical seismic sensor systems and methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, A. Craig; Cummings, Malcolm E.; Zavriyev, Anton; Christensen, Caleb A.; Lee, Keun

    2015-12-08

    Disclosed is an optical seismic sensor system for measuring seismic events in a geological formation, including a surface unit for generating and processing an optical signal, and a sensor device optically connected to the surface unit for receiving the optical signal over an optical conduit. The sensor device includes at least one sensor head for sensing a seismic disturbance from at least one direction during a deployment of the sensor device within a borehole of the geological formation. The sensor head includes a frame and a reference mass attached to the frame via at least one flexure, such that movement of the reference mass relative to the frame is constrained to a single predetermined path.

  17. A Percolation Perspective for Gutenburg-Richter Scaling and b-values for Fracking Assocated Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. Q.

    2016-12-01

    Published 60 years ago, the Gutenburg-Richter law provides a universal frequency-magnitude distribution for natural and induced seismicity. The GR law is a two parameter power-law with the b-value specifying the relative frequency of small and large events. For large catalogs of natural seismicity, the observed b-values are near one, while fracking associated seismicity has observed b-values near two, indicating relatively fewer large events. We have developed a computationally inexpensive percolation model for fracking that allows us to generate large catalogs of fracking associated seismicity. Using these catalogs, we show that different power-law fitting procedures produce different b-values for the same data set. This shows that care must be taken when determining and comparing b-values for fracking associated seismicity.

  18. Sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple initiating events in fire events PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    A single fire event within a fire compartment or a fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events (IEs). As an example, a fire in a turbine building fire area can cause a loss of the main feed-water (LOMF) and loss of off-site power (LOOP) IEs. Previous domestic fire events PSA had considered only the most severe initiating event among multiple initiating events. NUREG/CR-6850 and ANS/ASME PRA Standard require that multiple IEs are to be addressed in fire events PSA. In this paper, sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple IEs in fire events PSA for Hanul Unit 3 were performed and their results were presented. In this paper, sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple IEs in fire events PSA are performed and their results were presented. From the sensitivity analysis results, we can find that the incorporations of multiple IEs into fire events PSA model result in the core damage frequency (CDF) increase and may lead to the generation of the duplicate cutsets. Multiple IEs also can occur at internal flooding event or other external events such as seismic event. They should be considered in the constructions of PSA models in order to realistically estimate risk due to flooding or seismic events.

  19. 3-D topological signatures and a new discrimination method for single-electron events and 0νββ events in CdZnTe: A Monte Carlo simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Ming; Li, Teng-Lin; Cang, Ji-Rong [Key Laboratory of Particle & Radiation Imaging (Tsinghua University), Ministry of Education (China); Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zeng, Zhi, E-mail: zengzhi@tsinghua.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Particle & Radiation Imaging (Tsinghua University), Ministry of Education (China); Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Fu, Jian-Qiang; Zeng, Wei-He; Cheng, Jian-Ping; Ma, Hao; Liu, Yi-Nong [Key Laboratory of Particle & Radiation Imaging (Tsinghua University), Ministry of Education (China); Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2017-06-21

    In neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay experiments, the diversity of topological signatures of different particles provides an important tool to distinguish double beta events from background events and reduce background rates. Aiming at suppressing the single-electron backgrounds which are most challenging, several groups have established Monte Carlo simulation packages to study the topological characteristics of single-electron events and 0νββ events and develop methods to differentiate them. In this paper, applying the knowledge of graph theory, a new topological signature called REF track (Refined Energy-Filtered track) is proposed and proven to be an accurate approximation of the real particle trajectory. Based on the analysis of the energy depositions along the REF track of single-electron events and 0νββ events, the REF energy deposition models for both events are proposed to indicate the significant differences between them. With these differences, this paper presents a new discrimination method, which, in the Monte Carlo simulation, achieved a single-electron rejection factor of 93.8±0.3 (stat.)% as well as a 0νββ efficiency of 85.6±0.4 (stat.)% with optimized parameters in CdZnTe.

  20. Post-seismic velocity changes following the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, revealed by ambient seismic field analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckels, R. EG; Savage, M. K.; Townend, J.

    2018-05-01

    Quantifying seismic velocity changes following large earthquakes can provide insights into fault healing and reloading processes. This study presents temporal velocity changes detected following the 2010 September Mw 7.1 Darfield event in Canterbury, New Zealand. We use continuous waveform data from several temporary seismic networks lying on and surrounding the Greendale Fault, with a maximum interstation distance of 156 km. Nine-component, day-long Green's functions were computed for frequencies between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz for continuous seismic records from immediately after the 2010 September 04 earthquake until 2011 January 10. Using the moving-window cross-spectral method, seismic velocity changes were calculated. Over the study period, an increase in seismic velocity of 0.14 ± 0.04 per cent was determined near the Greendale Fault, providing a new constraint on post-seismic relaxation rates in the region. A depth analysis further showed that velocity changes were confined to the uppermost 5 km of the subsurface. We attribute the observed changes to post-seismic relaxation via crack healing of the Greendale Fault and throughout the surrounding region.

  1. An example of multidimensional analysis: Discriminant analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, P.

    1990-01-01

    Among the approaches on the data multi-dimensional analysis, lectures on the discriminant analysis including theoretical and practical aspects are presented. The discrimination problem, the analysis steps and the discrimination categories are stressed. Examples on the descriptive historical analysis, the discrimination for decision making, the demonstration and separation of the top quark are given. In the linear discriminant analysis the following subjects are discussed: Huyghens theorem, projection, discriminant variable, geometrical interpretation, case for g=2, classification method, separation of the top events. Criteria allowing the obtention of relevant results are included [fr

  2. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saari, J.; Malm, M.

    2010-06-01

    Excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2009 Posiva's seismic network consists of 14 seismic stations and 19 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km *2 km *2 km cube surrounding the ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2009. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The upgrades in 2009 are limited to the processing, interpretation and reporting practices. The latest upgrades of the equipment were done in November 2008. The final technical tuning and tests related to the upgrade were done in the beginning of 2009. The network has operated continuously in 2009. Altogether 1256 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Most of them (1161) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semi-regional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1135 events). The magnitudes of the observed events inside the semi-regional area range from ML = -1.5 to ML = 1.6 (ML = magnitude in local Richter's scale). Most of them are explosions. Two

  3. A Bayesian theory for seismic foreshocks and aftershocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, B.-F.

    2006-01-01

    Statistical distributions in time, magnitude and energy are derived for seismic foreshocks and aftershocks accompanying a main seismic shock, as based on the Bayesian theory of probabilities and on a model introduced recently for the accumulation of energy in a seismic focus. Omori's law is obtained as a self-replication of a generating distribution, the self-consistency of the process requiring an exponential law for this generating distribution. The two distributions are interrelated by Euler's transform, which provides also a generalized form of Omori's law. The regime of the accompanying seismic events is characterized as fully as possible, including the time dependence of the magnitude and the rate of released energy. (author)

  4. GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

    2006-12-01

    The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility

  5. Full-waveform seismic tomography of the Vrancea, Romania, subduction region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Julie; Morelli, Andrea

    2017-12-01

    The Vrancea region is one of the few locations of deep seismicity in Europe. Seismic tomography has been able to map lithospheric downwelling, but has not been able yet to clearly discriminate between competing geodynamic interpretations of the geological and geophysical evidence available. We study the seismic structure of the Vrancea subduction zone, using adjoint-based, full-waveform tomography to map the 3D vP and vS structure in detail. We use the database that was built during the CALIXTO (Carpathian Arc Lithosphere X-Tomography) temporary experiment, restricted to the broadband sensors and local intermediate-depth events. We fit waveforms with a cross-correlation misfit criterion in separate time windows around the expected P and S arrivals, and perform 17 iterations of vP and vS model updates (altogether, requiring about 16 million CPU hours) before reaching stable convergence. Among other features, our resulting model shows a nearly vertical, high-velocity body, that overlaps with the distribution of seismicity in its northeastern part. In its southwestern part, a slab appears to dip less steeply to the NW, and is suggestive of ongoing - or recently concluded - subduction geodynamic processes. Joint inversion for vP and vS allow us to address the vP/vS ratio distribution, that marks high vP/vS in the crust beneath the Focsani sedimentary basin - possibly due to high fluid pressure - and a low vP/vS edge along the lower plane of the subducting lithosphere, that in other similar environment has been attributed to dehydration of serpentine in the slab. In spite of the restricted amount of data available, and limitations on the usable frequency pass-band, full-waveform inversion reveals its potential to improve the general quality of imaging with respect to other tomographic techniques - although at a sensible cost in terms of computing resources. Our study also shows that re-analysis of legacy data sets with up-to-date techniques may bring new, useful

  6. Using Tectonic Tremor to Constrain Seismic-wave Attenuation in Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littel, G.; Thomas, A.; Baltay, A.

    2017-12-01

    In addition to fast, seismic slip, many subduction zones also host slow, largely aseismic slip, accompanied by a weak seismic signal known as tectonic tremor. Tremor is a small amplitude, low-frequency seismic signal that originates at the plate interface, down-dip of where large earthquakes typically occur. The Cascadia subduction zone has not seen a large megathrust earthquake since 1700, yet its recurrence interval of 350-500 years motivates heightened interest in understanding the seismic hazard of the region. Of great importance is to understand the degree to which waves are attenuated as they leave the plate interface and travel towards populated regions of interest. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion to a number of parameters, including earthquake magnitude, depth, style of faulting, and anelastic attenuation, and are typically determined empirically from earthquake ground motion recordings. In Cascadia, however, earthquakes of the moderate size typically used to constrain GMPEs occur relatively infrequently compared to tectonic tremor events, which, in contrast, occur periodically approximately every 10-19 months. Studies have shown that the abundant tectonic tremor in Cascadia, despite its small amplitudes, can be used to constrain seismic wave attenuation in GMPEs. Here we quantify seismic wave attenuation and determine its spatial variations in Cascadia by performing an inversion using tremor ground motion amplitudes, taken as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) from 1 min window waveforms of each individual tremor event. We estimate the anelastic attenuation parameter for varying regional sections along the Cascadia margin. Changes in seismic-wave attenuation along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could result in significantly different ground motions in the event of a very large earthquake, hence quantifying attenuation may help to better estimate the severity of shaking in densely populated

  7. Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual Report for 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saari, J.; Lakio, A.

    2008-05-01

    In February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. In the beginning of 2006, the target area of the seismic monitoring expanded to semiregional scale. Four new seismic stations started in the beginning of February 2006 and the focus of interpretation was expanded to an area, called the seismic semi-regional area. At the end of 2006, two new borehole geophones were installed in order to improve the sensitivity and the depth resolution of the measurements inside the ONKALO block. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the year 2007. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The true orientation of the borehole sensor OL-OS13 was calculated. The correct orientation of triaxial seismometer is essential when the fault plane solution of an earthquake is calculated. The other borehole sensor OL-OS14 was permanently disconnected in October 2007. The network has operated continuously in 2007. Altogether 2207 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Altogether 2207 events have been located in 2007. Most of them (1912) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the ONKALO block (1891 events). The magnitudes of the observed events inside the semi-regional area range from ML = -2.1 to ML = 1.5 (ML

  8. Vigilance in the discrimination-stress model for Black Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstein, Mary S; Young, Danielle M; Sanchez, Diana T; Jackson, James S

    2015-01-01

    Daily events of discrimination are important factors in understanding health disparities. Vigilant coping, or protecting against anticipated discrimination by monitoring and modifying behaviour, is an understudied mechanism that may link discrimination and health outcomes. This study investigates how responding to everyday discrimination with anticipatory vigilance relates to the health of Black men and women. Black adults (N = 221) from the Detroit area completed measures of discrimination, adverse life events, vigilance coping, stress, depressive symptoms and self-reported health. Vigilance coping strategies mediated the relationship between discrimination and stress. Multi-group path analysis revealed that stress in turn was associated with increased depression in men and women. Self-reported health consequences of stress differed between men and women. Vigilance coping mediates the link between discrimination and stress, and stress has consequences for health outcomes resulting from discrimination. More research is needed to understand other underlying contributors to discrimination, stress and poor health outcomes as well as to create potential interventions to ameliorate health outcomes in the face of discrimination-related stress.

  9. Estimation of parameters of finite seismic source model for selected event of West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm-methodology improvement and data extension

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 4 (2015), s. 935-947 ISSN 1383-4649 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

  10. Extreme loads seismic testing of conduit systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, G.E.; Ibanez, P.; Harrison, S.; Shi, Z.T.

    1991-01-01

    Rigid steel conduit (thin-wall tubes with threaded connections) containing electrical cabling are a common feature in nuclear power plants. Conduit systems are in many cases classified in U.S.A. practice as Seismic Category I structures. this paper summarizes results and others aspects of a dynamic test program conducted to investigate conduit systems seismic performance under three-axis excitation for designs representative at a nuclear power plant sited near Ft. Worth, Texas (a moderate seismic zone), with a Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) of 0.12 g. Test specimens where subjected to postulated seismic events, including excitation well in excess of Safe Shutdown Earthquake events typical for U.S.A. nuclear power stations. A total of 18 conduit systems of 9-meter nominal lengths were shake table mounted and subjected to a variety of tests. None of the specimens suffered loss of load capacity when subjected to a site-enveloping Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE). Clamp/attachment hardware failures only began to occur when earthquake input motion was scaled upward to minimum values of 2.3-4.6 times site enveloping SSE response spectra. Tensile and/or shear failure of clamp attachment bolts or studs was the failure mode in all case in which failure was induced. (author)

  11. Multichannel long period seismic data acquisition system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolvankar, V.G.; Rao, D.S.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the specifications and performance of an eight channel long period seismic digital data acquisition system, which is developed and installed at Seismic Array Station, Gauribidanur, Karnataka State. The paper describes how these data in an unedited form are recorded on a single track of magnetic tape inter-mittantly, which has resulted in recording of 50 days data on a single tapespool. A time indexing technique which enables quick access to any desired portion of a recorded tape is also discussed. Typical examples of long period seismic event signals recorded by this system are also illustrated. Various advantages, the system provides over the analog multichannel instrumentation tape recording system, operating at Seismic Array Station for th e last two decades, are also discussed. (author). 7 figs

  12. Effects of fault heterogeneity on seismic energy and spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragoni, Michele; Santini, Stefano

    2017-12-01

    We study the effects of friction heterogeneity on the dynamics of a seismogenic fault. To this aim, we consider a fault model containing two asperities with different static frictions and a rate-dependent dynamic friction. We consider the seismic events produced by the consecutive failure of the two asperities and study their properties as functions of the ratio between static frictions. In particular, we calculate the moment rate, the stress evolution during fault slip, the average stress drop, the partitioning of energy release, the seismic energy, the far-field waveforms and the spectrum of seismic waves. These quantities depend to various extent on the friction distribution on the fault. In particular, the stress distribution on the fault is always strongly heterogeneous at the beginning of the seismic event. Seismic energy and frictional heat decrease with increasing friction heterogeneity, while seismic efficiency is constant. We obtain an equation relating seismic efficiency to the parameters of the friction law, showing that the efficiency is maximum for smaller values of dynamic friction. The seismic spectrum depends on the friction distribution as to the positions and the values of the minima. However, under the model assumption that the slip durations are the same for both asperities, the corner frequency is independent of the friction distribution, but it depends on the friction law and on the coupling between asperities. The model provides a relation between the total radiated energy and the seismic moment that is consistent with the empirical relation between the two quantities. The fault model with one asperity is also considered as a particular case. The model is applied to the 1965 Rat Islands (Alaska) earthquake and shows the role of fault heterogeneity in controlling the spatial distribution of stress drop as well as the time dependence and the final amount of radiated energy.

  13. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  14. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-07-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  15. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-01-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  16. External events analysis for the Savannah River Site K reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.; Wingo, H.E.

    1990-01-01

    The probabilistic external events analysis performed for the Savannah River Site K-reactor PRA considered many different events which are generally perceived to be ''external'' to the reactor and its systems, such as fires, floods, seismic events, and transportation accidents (as well as many others). Events which have been shown to be significant contributors to risk include seismic events, tornados, a crane failure scenario, fires and dam failures. The total contribution to the core melt frequency from external initiators has been found to be 2.2 x 10 -4 per year, from which seismic events are the major contributor (1.2 x 10 -4 per year). Fire initiated events contribute 1.4 x 10 -7 per year, tornados 5.8 x 10 -7 per year, dam failures 1.5 x 10 -6 per year and the crane failure scenario less than 10 -4 per year to the core melt frequency. 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

  17. Detailed seismicity analysis in the SE of Romania (Dobrogea region)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogozea, Maria; Radulian, Mircea; Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the seismicity in the south-eastern part of Romania, in the Dobrogea region (namely the Predobrogean Depression and Black Sea area). Predobrogean Depression is the name attributed to the structures belonging to the Scythian Platform. The seismic activity is moderate with most significant earthquakes at the boundary between the North Dobrogea Orogen and Scythian Platform (Sf. Gheorghe fault). The largest magnitude event was recorded in 02.11.1871 (Mw = 5.3). Other events with magnitude above 4 were observed close to Tulcea city (13.11.1981, Mw = 5.1, 03.09.204, Mw =5.1) and Galati city (11.09.1980, Mw = 4.2). Recently, an earthquake swarm of 406 events extended over two months and a half (23 September - 5 December 2013) was produced in the Galati area (maximum magnitude 3.9). The deformation field has an extensional regime, as resulted from fault plane solutions and geotectonic investigations. The maximum expected magnitude in this area is estimated at Mw = 5.5. The seismic activity in the Black Sea area, close to Romania seashore and north-east Bulgarian seashore, concentrates along Shabla fault system. Large shocks (magnitude above 7) are reported here at intervals of a few centuries. The most recent major shock was recorded on 31 January 1901 (Mw = 7.2) in Shabla region, Bulgaria. To characterize seismicity parameters, the Romanian catalogue of the National Institute of Earth Physics was used as a basic input. The catalogue was revised as concerns historical information by reanalyzing macroseismic data and for the recent events, by applying up-to-date tools to relocate and re-parametrize the seismic sources.

  18. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  19. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  20. Patterns in Seismicity at Mt St Helens and Mt Unzen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Oliver; De Angelis, Silvio; Lavallee, Yan

    2014-05-01

    Cyclic behaviour on a range of timescales is a well-documented feature of many dome-forming volcanoes. Previous work on Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat) and Volcán de Colima (Mexico) revealed broad-scale similarities in behaviour implying the potential to develop general physical models of sub-surface processes [1]. Using volcano-seismic data from Mt St Helens (USA) and Mt Unzen (Japan) this study explores parallels in long-term behaviour of seismicity at two dome-forming systems. Within the last twenty years both systems underwent extended dome-forming episodes accompanied by large Vulcanian explosions or dome collapses. This study uses a suite of quantitative and analytical techniques which can highlight differences or similarities in volcano seismic behaviour, and compare the behaviour to changes in activity during the eruptive episodes. Seismic events were automatically detected and characterized on a single short-period seismometer station located 1.5km from the 2004-2008 vent at Mt St Helens. A total of 714 826 individual events were identified from continuous recording of seismic data from 22 October 2004 to 28 February 2006 (average 60.2 events per hour) using a short-term/long-term average algorithm. An equivalent count will be produced from seismometer recordings over the later stages of the 1991-1995 eruption at MT Unzen. The event count time-series from Mt St Helens is then analysed using Multi-taper Method and the Short-Term Fourier Transform to explore temporal variations in activity. Preliminary analysis of seismicity from Mt St Helens suggests cyclic behaviour of subannual timescale, similar to that described at Volcán de Colima and Soufrière Hills volcano [1]. Frequency Index and waveform correlation tools will be implemented to analyse changes in the frequency content of the seismicity and to explore their relations to different phases of activity at the volcano. A single station approach is used to gain a fine-scale view of variations in

  1. Erosion influences the seismicity of active thrust faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steer, Philippe; Simoes, Martine; Cattin, Rodolphe; Shyu, J Bruce H

    2014-11-21

    Assessing seismic hazards remains one of the most challenging scientific issues in Earth sciences. Deep tectonic processes are classically considered as the only persistent mechanism driving the stress loading of active faults over a seismic cycle. Here we show via a mechanical model that erosion also significantly influences the stress loading of thrust faults at the timescale of a seismic cycle. Indeed, erosion rates of about ~0.1-20 mm yr(-1), as documented in Taiwan and in other active compressional orogens, can raise the Coulomb stress by ~0.1-10 bar on the nearby thrust faults over the inter-seismic phase. Mass transfers induced by surface processes in general, during continuous or short-lived and intense events, represent a prominent mechanism for inter-seismic stress loading of faults near the surface. Such stresses are probably sufficient to trigger shallow seismicity or promote the rupture of deep continental earthquakes up to the surface.

  2. Investigating on the Differences between Triggered and Background Seismicity in Italy and Southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stallone, A.; Marzocchi, W.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake occurrence may be approximated by a multidimensional Poisson clustering process, where each point of the Poisson process is replaced by a cluster of points, the latter corresponding to the well-known aftershock sequence (triggered events). Earthquake clusters and their parents are assumed to occur according to a Poisson process at a constant temporal rate proportional to the tectonic strain rate, while events within a cluster are modeled as generations of dependent events reproduced by a branching process. Although the occurrence of such space-time clusters is a general feature in different tectonic settings, seismic sequences seem to have marked differences from region to region: one example, among many others, is that seismic sequences of moderate magnitude in Italian Apennines seem to last longer than similar seismic sequences in California. In this work we investigate on the existence of possible differences in the earthquake clustering process in these two areas. At first, we separate the triggered and background components of seismicity in the Italian and Southern California seismic catalog. Then we study the space-time domain of the triggered earthquakes with the aim to identify possible variations in the triggering properties across the two regions. In the second part of the work we focus our attention on the characteristics of the background seismicity in both seismic catalogs. The assumption of time stationarity of the background seismicity (which includes both cluster parents and isolated events) is still under debate. Some authors suggest that the independent component of seismicity could undergo transient perturbations at various time scales due to different physical mechanisms, such as, for example, viscoelastic relaxation, presence of fluids, non-stationary plate motion, etc, whose impact may depend on the tectonic setting. Here we test if the background seismicity in the two regions can be satisfactorily described by the time

  3. Seismic risk map of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Lee, Y.K.; Eum, S.H.; Yang, S.J.; Chun, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    A study on seismic hazard level in Korea has been performed and the main results of the study are summarized as follows: 1. Historians suggest that the quality of historical earthquake data may be accurate in some degree and the data should be used in seismic risk analysis. 2. The historical damage events are conformed in historical literatures and their intensities are re-evaluated by joint researchers. The maximum MM intensity of them is VIII evaluated for 17 events. 3. The relation of earthquakes to surface fault is not clear. It seems resonable to related them to tectonic provinces. 4. Statistical seismic risk analysis shows that the acceleration expected within 50O year return period is less than 0.25G when only instrumental earthquakes are used and less than 0.10G if all of instrumental and historical earthquakes are used. The acceleration in Western Coast and Kyungsang area is higher than the other regions in Korea. 5. The maximum horizontal acceleration determined by conservative method is 0.26G when historical earthquake data are used and less than 0.20G if only instrumental earthquakes are used. The return period of 0.26G is 240 years in Kyungsang province and longer in other provinces. (Author)

  4. Calculations on seismic coupling of underground explosions in salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heusinkveld, M.E.

    1981-01-01

    This report details the results of a theoretical study of seismic coupling and decoupling of underground explosions in a salt medium. A series of chemical and nuclear explosions was carried out years ago in salt domes for the Cowboy and the Dribble programs to provide experimental data on seismic coupling for both tamped explosions and explosions in cavities. The Cowboy program consisted of a series of chemical explosions, and the Dribble program consisted of the tamped nuclear Salmon event, the Sterling nuclear event in the Salmon cavity, and an associated site calibration effort. This report presents the results of extensive computer calculations, which are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. The calculations were extended to give general results on seismic coupling in salt. The measure of seismic coupling for most of this work was the residual reduced displacement potential (residual RDP). The decoupling associated with a shot in a cavity was expressed as the ratio of the resulting residual RDP to that of an equal-sized tamped shot

  5. Quasi-seismic scaling processes in sea ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmel, A; Smirnov, V N

    2011-01-01

    The cracking, shearing and stick–slip motions in sea ice are similar to those in fracturing geostructures. In this work, the fracture-related, quasi-seismic activity in the Arctic ice pack was monitored during a large-scale ice cover fragmentation that occurred in March 2008. This fragmentation resulted in the formation of a two-dimensional 'fault' clearly seen in satellite images. The energy distribution in elastic waves detected by seismic tiltmeters follows the power law in pre- and post-faulting periods. The power exponent decreases as the 'catastrophe' approaches, and exhibits a trend to restore its initial value after the large-scale perturbation. The detected fracture events are correlated in time in the sense of a scaling relation. A quiescent period (very low quasi-seismic activity) was observed before 'faulting'. A close similarity in scaling characteristics between the crustal seismicity and quasi-seismic activity observed in the ice pack is discussed from the viewpoint of the role of heterogeneity in the behavior of large-scale critical systems

  6. Seismic qualification of multiple interconnected safety-related cabinets in a high seismic zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.R.; Chen, W.H.W.; Wang, T.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Certain safety-related multiple, interconnected electrical cabinets and the devices contained therein are required to perform their intended safety functions during and after a design basis seismic event. In general, seismic testing is performed to ensure the structural integrity of the cabinets and the functionality of their associated devices. Constrained by the shake table capacity, seismic testing is usually performed only for a limited number of interconnected cabinets. Also, original shake table tests performed usually did not provide detailed response information at various locations inside the cabinets. For operational and maintenance purposes, doors and panels of some cabinets may need to be opened while the adjacent cabinets are required to remain functional. In addition, in-cabinet response spectra need to be generated for the seismic qualification of new devices and the replacement parts. Consequently, seismic analysis of safety-related multiple, interconnected cabinets is frequently required for configurations which are different from the original tested conditions. This paper presents results of seismic tests of three interconnected safety-related cabinets and finite element analyses performed to compare the analytical results with those obtained from the cabinet seismic tests. Parametric analyses are performed to determine how many panels and doors can be opened while the adjacent cabinets still remain functional. The study indicates that for cabinets located in a high seismic zone, the critical damping of the cabinet is significantly higher than 5% to 7% typically used in qualifying electrical equipment. For devices mounted on the cabinet doors to performed their intended safety function, it requires stiffening of doors and that these doors be properly bolted to the cabinet frame. It also shows that even though doors and panels bolted to the cabinet frame are the primary seismic resistant element of the cabinet, opening of a limited number of them

  7. Seismic Isolation Working Meeting Gap Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sabharwall, Piyush [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    The ultimate goal in nuclear facility and nuclear power plant operations is operating safety during normal operations and maintaining core cooling capabilities during off-normal events including external hazards. Understanding the impact external hazards, such as flooding and earthquakes, have on nuclear facilities and NPPs is critical to deciding how to manage these hazards to expectable levels of risk. From a seismic risk perspective the goal is to manage seismic risk. Seismic risk is determined by convolving the seismic hazard with seismic fragilities (capacity of systems, structures, and components (SSCs)). There are large uncertainties associated with evolving nature of the seismic hazard curves. Additionally there are requirements within DOE and potential requirements within NRC to reconsider updated seismic hazard curves every 10 years. Therefore opportunity exists for engineered solutions to manage this seismic uncertainty. One engineered solution is seismic isolation. Current seismic isolation (SI) designs (used in commercial industry) reduce horizontal earthquake loads and protect critical infrastructure from the potentially destructive effects of large earthquakes. The benefit of SI application in the nuclear industry is being recognized and SI systems have been proposed, in the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4 standard, to be released in 2014, for Light Water Reactors (LWR) facilities using commercially available technology. However, there is a lack of industry application to the nuclear industry and uncertainty with implementing the procedures outlined in ASCE-4. Opportunity exists to determine barriers associated with implementation of current ASCE-4 standard language.

  8. Floor response spectra of WWER-1000, NPP Kozloduy generated from local seismic excitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bojadziev, Z.; Kostov, M.

    1996-01-01

    The seismic review level characteristics for the Kozloduy NPP site were set to 0.2 g and a respective free field acceleration response spectra were derived after a profound site conformation project. Accordingly a separate investigation is recommended for local seismic excitation. The goals of the analyses are: to define the seismic motion characteristics from local seismic sources; to perform structural analyses and in-structure spectra generation for local seismic excitation; and to compare the forces (spectra) from local events with those generated as seismic design review basis

  9. Seismic evaluation of existing nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    seismic safety. Rational feasible criteria for resolving the main issues have been developed in some Member States. The main purpose of this report is to provide guidance for conducting seismic safety evaluation programmes for existing NPPs in a manner consistent with internationally recognized practice. This report may be used as a tool for regulatory organizations and other organizations responsible for the execution of seismic safety evaluation programmes, giving a clear definition to different parties, organizations and specialists involved in their implementation of: (a) The objectives of the seismic evaluation programme; (b) The phases, tasks and priorities in accordance with specific plant conditions; (c) A common and integrated technical framework for acceptance criteria and capacity evaluation. The scope of this report covers the seismic safety evaluation programmes to be performed on NPPs so as to ensure that the required basic safety functions are available, with particular application to the safe shutdown of reactors. Seismic safety evaluation programmes should contain three important parts, which are discussed in this Safety Report: (1) The assessment of the seismic hazard as an external event, specific to the seismotectonic and soil conditions of the site, and of the associated input motion; (2) The safety analysis of the NPP resulting in an identification of the selected structures, systems and components (SSSCs) appropriate for dealing with a seismic event with the objective of a safe shutdown; (3) The evaluation of the plant specific seismic capacity to withstand the loads generated by such an event, possibly resulting in upgrading. Seismic evaluation of existing NPPs relies much more on feedback experience than qualification of new NPPs does; and the feedback experience is mainly revealed through the practice referred to as walkdowns. Both outlines of feedback experience and conducting of walkdowns are also discussed in this Safety Report. Evaluation

  10. Pick- and waveform-based techniques for real-time detection of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigoli, Francesco; Scarabello, Luca; Böse, Maren; Weber, Bernd; Wiemer, Stefan; Clinton, John F.

    2018-05-01

    The monitoring of induced seismicity is a common operation in many industrial activities, such as conventional and non-conventional hydrocarbon production or mining and geothermal energy exploitation, to cite a few. During such operations, we generally collect very large and strongly noise-contaminated data sets that require robust and automated analysis procedures. Induced seismicity data sets are often characterized by sequences of multiple events with short interevent times or overlapping events; in these cases, pick-based location methods may struggle to correctly assign picks to phases and events, and errors can lead to missed detections and/or reduced location resolution and incorrect magnitudes, which can have significant consequences if real-time seismicity information are used for risk assessment frameworks. To overcome these issues, different waveform-based methods for the detection and location of microseismicity have been proposed. The main advantages of waveform-based methods is that they appear to perform better and can simultaneously detect and locate seismic events providing high-quality locations in a single step, while the main disadvantage is that they are computationally expensive. Although these methods have been applied to different induced seismicity data sets, an extensive comparison with sophisticated pick-based detection methods is still missing. In this work, we introduce our improved waveform-based detector and we compare its performance with two pick-based detectors implemented within the SeiscomP3 software suite. We test the performance of these three approaches with both synthetic and real data sets related to the induced seismicity sequence at the deep geothermal project in the vicinity of the city of St. Gallen, Switzerland.

  11. Probabilistic seismic hazards: Guidelines and constraints in evaluating results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadigh, R.K.; Power, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    In conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, consideration of the dispersion as well as the upper bounds on ground motion is of great significance. In particular, the truncation of ground motion levels at some upper limit would have a major influence on the computed hazard at the low-to-very-low probability levels. Additionally, other deterministic guidelines and constraints should be considered in evaluating the probabilistic seismic hazard results. In contrast to probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations, mean plus one standard deviation ground motions are typically used for deterministic estimates of ground motions from maximum events that may affect a structure. To be consistent with standard deterministic maximum estimates of ground motions values should be the highest level considered for the site. These maximum values should be associated with the largest possible event occurring at the site. Furthermore, the relationships between the ground motion level and probability of exceedance should reflect a transition from purely probabilistic assessments of ground motion at high probability levels where there are multiple chances for events to a deterministic upper bound ground motion at very low probability levels where there is very limited opportunity for maximum events to occur. In Interplate Regions, where the seismic sources may be characterized by a high-to-very-high rate of activity, the deterministic bounds will be approached or exceeded by the computer probabilistic hazard values at annual probability of exceedance levels typically as high as 10 -2 to 10 -3 . Thus, at these or lower values probability levels, probabilistically computed hazard values could be readily interpreted in the light of the deterministic constraints

  12. Discrimination between pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies and solar activity effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koulouras, G.; Balasis, G.; Kiourktsidis, I.; Nannos, E.; Kontakos, K.; Stonham, J.; Ruzhin, Y.; Eftaxias, K.; Cavouras, D.; Nomicos, C.

    2009-04-01

    Laboratory studies suggest that electromagnetic emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kilohertz (kHz) to very high megahertz (MHz) frequencies are produced by the opening of microcracks, with the MHz radiation appearing earlier than the kHz radiation. Earthquakes are large-scale fracture phenomena in the Earth's heterogeneous crust. Thus, the radiated kHz-MHz electromagnetic emissions are detectable not only in the laboratory but also at a geological scale. Clear MHz-to-kHz electromagnetic anomalies have been systematically detected over periods ranging from a few days to a few hours prior to recent destructive earthquakes in Greece. We should bear in mind that whether electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes exist is an important question not only for earthquake prediction but mainly for understanding the physical processes of earthquake generation. An open question in this field of research is the classification of a detected electromagnetic anomaly as a pre-seismic signal associated with earthquake occurrence. Indeed, electromagnetic fluctuations in the frequency range of MHz are known to be related to a few sources, including atmospheric noise (due to lightning), man-made composite noise, solar-terrestrial noise (resulting from the Sun-solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth's surface chain) or cosmic noise, and finally, the lithospheric effect, namely pre-seismic activity. We focus on this point in this paper. We suggest that if a combination of detected kHz and MHz electromagnetic anomalies satisfies the set of criteria presented herein, these anomalies could be considered as candidate precursory phenomena of an impending earthquake.

  13. Discrimination between pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies and solar activity effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koulouras, G; Kiourktsidis, I; Stonham, J; Balasis, G; Nannos, E; Kontakos, K; Nomicos, C; Ruzhin, Y; Eftaxias, K; Cavouras, D

    2009-01-01

    Laboratory studies suggest that electromagnetic emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kilohertz (kHz) to very high megahertz (MHz) frequencies are produced by the opening of microcracks, with the MHz radiation appearing earlier than the kHz radiation. Earthquakes are large-scale fracture phenomena in the Earth's heterogeneous crust. Thus, the radiated kHz-MHz electromagnetic emissions are detectable not only in the laboratory but also at a geological scale. Clear MHz-to-kHz electromagnetic anomalies have been systematically detected over periods ranging from a few days to a few hours prior to recent destructive earthquakes in Greece. We should bear in mind that whether electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes exist is an important question not only for earthquake prediction but mainly for understanding the physical processes of earthquake generation. An open question in this field of research is the classification of a detected electromagnetic anomaly as a pre-seismic signal associated with earthquake occurrence. Indeed, electromagnetic fluctuations in the frequency range of MHz are known to be related to a few sources, including atmospheric noise (due to lightning), man-made composite noise, solar-terrestrial noise (resulting from the Sun-solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth's surface chain) or cosmic noise, and finally, the lithospheric effect, namely pre-seismic activity. We focus on this point in this paper. We suggest that if a combination of detected kHz and MHz electromagnetic anomalies satisfies the set of criteria presented herein, these anomalies could be considered as candidate precursory phenomena of an impending earthquake.

  14. Detection and location of multiple events by MARS. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.; Masso, J.F.; Archambeau, C.B.; Savino, J.M.

    1980-09-01

    Seismic data from two explosions was processed using the Systems Science and Software MARS (Multiple Arrival Recognition System) seismic event detector in an effort to determine their relative spatial and temporal separation on the basis of seismic data alone. The explosions were less than 1.0 kilometer apart and were separated by less than 0.5 sec in origin times. The seismic data consisted of nine local accelerograms (r < 1.0 km) and four regional (240 through 400 km) seismograms. The MARS processing clearly indicates the presence of multiple explosions, but the restricted frequency range of the data inhibits accurate time picks and hence limits the precision of the event location

  15. Seismic monitoring of soft-rock landslides: the Super-Sauze and Valoria case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonnellier, Alice; Helmstetter, Agnès; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Corsini, Alessandro; Joswig, Manfred

    2013-06-01

    This work focuses on the characterization of seismic sources observed in clay-shale landslides. Two landslides are considered: Super-Sauze (France) and Valoria (Italy). The two landslides are developed in reworked clay-shales but differ in terms of dimensions and displacement rates. Thousands of seismic signals have been identified by a small seismic array in spite of the high-seismic attenuation of the material. Several detection methods are tested. A semi-automatic detection method is validated by the comparison with a manual detection. Seismic signals are classified in three groups based on the frequency content, the apparent velocity and the differentiation of P and S waves. It is supposed that the first group of seismic signals is associated to shearing or fracture events within the landslide bodies, while the second group may correspond to rockfalls or debris flows. A last group corresponds to external earthquakes. Seismic sources are located with an automatic beam-forming location method. Sources are clustered in several parts of the landslide in agreement with geomorphological observations. We found that the rate of rockfall and fracture events increases after periods of heavy rainfall or snowmelt. The rate of microseismicity and rockfall activity is also positively correlated with landslide displacement rates. External earthquakes did not influence the microseismic activity or the landslide movement, probably because the earthquake ground motion was too weak to trigger landslide events during the observation periods.

  16. Seismic dynamics in advance and after the recent strong earthquakes in Italy and New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2017-12-01

    We consider seismic events as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere and characterize earthquake series with the distribution of the control parameter, η = τ × 10B × (5-M) × L C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE (where τ is inter-event time, B is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, and C is fractal dimension of seismic locus). A systematic analysis of earthquake series in Central Italy and New Zealand, 1993-2017, suggests the existence, in a long-term, of different rather steady levels of seismic activity characterized with near constant values of η, which, in mid-term, intermittently switch at times of transitions associated with the strong catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity, in short-term, may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those. The results do not support the presence of universality in seismic energy release. The observed variability of seismic activity in advance and after strong (M6.0+) earthquakes in Italy and significant (M7.0+) earthquakes in New Zealand provides important constraints on modelling realistic earthquake sequences by geophysicists and can be used to improve local seismic hazard assessments including earthquake forecast/prediction methodologies. The transitions of seismic regime in Central Italy and New Zealand started in 2016 are still in progress and require special attention and geotechnical monitoring. It would be premature to make any kind of definitive conclusions on the level of seismic hazard which is evidently high at this particular moment of time in both regions. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No.16-17-00093.

  17. Seismic recording at the Los Medanos area of Southeastern New Mexico, 1974-1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanford, A.R.; Johansen, S.J.; Caravella, F.J.; Ward, R.M.

    1976-01-01

    The objective has been to determine if low-level seismic activity is occurring at or near the proposed nuclear waste repository in southeastern New Mexico. The research involved installation and maintenance of a continuously recording seismograph at the Los Medanos site and interpretation of the seismic events detected by that station. The following topics are discussed: (1) a description of the seismic instrumentation and its performance; (2) statistics on the local and regional earthquakes detected by the seismograph station at the Los Medanos site; (3) special studies on the seismic events associated with rockfalls at the National Potash Co. Eddy County Mine on July 26, 1972 and November 28, 1974; and (4) improved estimates of recurrence intervals for major earthquakes likely to effect the Los Medanos site

  18. Seismic reevaluation of nuclear facilities worldwide: Overview and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, R D; Hardy, G S; Ravindra, M K [EQE International, Irvine, CA (United States); Johnson, J J [EQE International, San Francisco, CA (United States); Hoy, A J [EQE International Ltd., Birchwood, Warrington (United Kingdom)

    1995-07-01

    Existing nuclear facilities throughout the world are being subjected to severe scrutiny of their safety in tile event of an earthquake. In the United States, there have been several licensing and safety review issues for which industry and regulatory agencies have cooperated to develop rational and economically feasible criteria for resolving the issues. Currently, all operating nuclear power plants in the United States are conducting an Individual Plant Examination of External Events, including earthquakes beyond tile design basis. About two-thirds of tile operating plants are conducting parallel programs for verifying, tile seismic adequacy of equipment for the design basis earthquake. The U.S. Department of Energy is also beginning to perform detailed evaluations of their facilities, many of which had little or no seismic design. Western European countries also have been reevaluating their older nuclear power plants for seismic events often adapting the criteria developed in the United States. With the change in tile political systems in Eastern Europe, there is a strong emphasis from their Western European neighbors to evaluate and Upgrade tile safely of their operating nuclear power plants. Finally, nuclear facilities in Asia are, also, being evaluated for seismic vulnerabilities. This paper focuses oil tile methodologies that have been developed for reevaluation of existing nuclear power plants and presents examples of the application of these methodologies to nuclear facilities worldwide. (author)

  19. Seismic reevaluation of nuclear facilities worldwide: Overview and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, R.D.; Hardy, G.S.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.; Hoy, A.J.

    1995-01-01

    Existing nuclear facilities throughout the world are being subjected to severe scrutiny of their safety in tile event of an earthquake. In the United States, there have been several licensing and safety review issues for which industry and regulatory agencies have cooperated to develop rational and economically feasible criteria for resolving the issues. Currently, all operating nuclear power plants in the United States are conducting an Individual Plant Examination of External Events, including earthquakes beyond tile design basis. About two-thirds of tile operating plants are conducting parallel programs for verifying, tile seismic adequacy of equipment for the design basis earthquake. The U.S. Department of Energy is also beginning to perform detailed evaluations of their facilities, many of which had little or no seismic design. Western European countries also have been reevaluating their older nuclear power plants for seismic events often adapting the criteria developed in the United States. With the change in tile political systems in Eastern Europe, there is a strong emphasis from their Western European neighbors to evaluate and Upgrade tile safely of their operating nuclear power plants. Finally, nuclear facilities in Asia are, also, being evaluated for seismic vulnerabilities. This paper focuses oil tile methodologies that have been developed for reevaluation of existing nuclear power plants and presents examples of the application of these methodologies to nuclear facilities worldwide. (author)

  20. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  1. Seismic margin analysis technique for nuclear power plant structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil

    2001-04-01

    In general, the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and the Seismic Margin Assessment(SAM) are used for the evaluation of realistic seismic capacity of nuclear power plant structures. Seismic PRA is a systematic process to evaluate the seismic safety of nuclear power plant. In our country, SPRA has been used to perform the probabilistic safety assessment for the earthquake event. SMA is a simple and cost effective manner to quantify the seismic margin of individual structural elements. This study was performed to improve the reliability of SMA results and to confirm the assessment procedure. To achieve this goal, review for the current status of the techniques and procedures was performed. Two methodologies, CDFM (Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin) sponsored by NRC and FA (Fragility Analysis) sponsored by EPRI, were developed for the seismic margin review of NPP structures. FA method was originally developed for Seismic PRA. CDFM approach is more amenable to use by experienced design engineers including utility staff design engineers. In this study, detailed review on the procedures of CDFM and FA methodology was performed

  2. Earthquake Monitoring with the MyShake Global Smartphone Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inbal, A.; Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Savran, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    Smartphone arrays have the potential for significantly improving seismic monitoring in sparsely instrumented urban areas. This approach benefits from the dense spatial coverage of users, as well as from communication and computational capabilities built into smartphones, which facilitate big seismic data transfer and analysis. Advantages in data acquisition with smartphones trade-off with factors such as the low-quality sensors installed in phones, high noise levels, and strong network heterogeneity, all of which limit effective seismic monitoring. Here we utilize network and array-processing schemes to asses event detectability with the MyShake global smartphone network. We examine the benefits of using this network in either triggered or continuous modes of operation. A global database of ground motions measured on stationary phones triggered by M2-6 events is used to establish detection probabilities. We find that the probability of detecting an M=3 event with a single phone located 20 nearby phones closely match the regional catalog locations. We use simulated broadband seismic data to examine how location uncertainties vary with user distribution and noise levels. To this end, we have developed an empirical noise model for the metropolitan Los-Angeles (LA) area. We find that densities larger than 100 stationary phones/km2 are required to accurately locate M 2 events in the LA basin. Given the projected MyShake user distribution, that condition may be met within the next few years.

  3. A test of a global seismic system for monitoring earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowman, J.R.; Muirhead, K.; Spiliopoulos, S.; Jepsen, D.; Leonard, M.

    1993-01-01

    Australia is a member of the Group of Scientific Experts (GSE) to consider international cooperative measures to detect and identify events, an ad hoc group of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament. The GSE conducted a large-scale technical test (GSETT-2) from 22 April to 9 June 1991 that focused on the exchange and analysis of seismic parameter and waveform data. Thirty-four countries participated in GSETT-2, and data were contributed from 60 stations on all continents. GSETT-2 demonstrated the feasibility of collecting and transmitting large volumes (around 1 giga-byte) of digital data around the world, and of producing a preliminary bulletin of global seismicity within 48 hours and a final bulletin within 7 days. However, the experiment also revealed the difficulty of keeping up with the flow of data and analysis with existing resources. The Final Event Bulletins listed 3715 events for the 42 recording days of the test, about twice the number reported routinely by another international agency 5 months later. The quality of the Final Event Bulletin was limited by the uneven spatial distribution of seismic stations that contributed to GSETT-2 and by the ambiguity of associating phases detected by widely separated stations to form seismic events. A monitoring system similar to that used in GSETT-2 could provide timely and accurate reporting of global seismicity. It would need an improved distribution of stations, application of more conservative event formation rules and further development of analysis software. 8 refs., 9 figs

  4. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.; Rohay, A.C.

    2000-01-01

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The HSN uses 21 sites and the EWRN uses 36 sites; both networks share 16 sites. The networks have 46 combined data channels because Gable Butte and Frenchman Hills East are three-component sites. The reconfiguration of the telemetry and recording systems was completed during the first quarter. All leased telephone lines have been eliminated and radio telemetry is now used exclusively. For the HSN, there were 506 triggers on two parallel detection and recording systems during the second quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2000. Twenty-seven seismic events were located by the Hanford Seismic Network within the reporting region of 46--47degree N latitude and 119--120degree W longitude; 12 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 9 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement, and 5 were quarry blasts. Three earthquakes appear to be related to geologic structures, eleven earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and seven earthquakes were random occurrences. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion

  5. Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel; AC Rohay

    2000-07-17

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The HSN uses 21 sites and the EWRN uses 36 sites; both networks share 16 sites. The networks have 46 combined data channels because Gable Butte and Frenchman Hills East are three-component sites. The reconfiguration of the telemetry and recording systems was completed during the first quarter. All leased telephone lines have been eliminated and radio telemetry is now used exclusively. For the HSN, there were 506 triggers on two parallel detection and recording systems during the second quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2000. Twenty-seven seismic events were located by the Hanford Seismic Network within the reporting region of 46--47{degree} N latitude and 119--120{degree} W longitude; 12 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 9 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement, and 5 were quarry blasts. Three earthquakes appear to be related to geologic structures, eleven earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and seven earthquakes were random occurrences. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion

  6. First quarter Hanford seismic report for fiscal year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel; AC Rohay

    2000-02-23

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The HSN uses 21 sites and the EW uses 36 sites; both networks share 16 sites. The networks have 46 combined data channels because Gable Butte and Frenchman Hills East are three-component sites. The reconfiguration of the telemetry and recording systems was completed during the first quarter. All leased telephone lines have been eliminated and radio telemetry is now used exclusively. For the HSN, there were 311 triggers on two parallel detection and recording systems during the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2000. Twelve seismic events were located by the Hanford Seismic Network within the reporting region of 46--47{degree}N latitude and 119--120{degree}W longitude; 2 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 3 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 9 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement, and 1 was a quarry blast. Two earthquakes appear to be related to a major geologic structure, no earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 9 earthquakes were random occurrences. No earthquakes triggered the Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometers

  7. Seismic analysis for the ALMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajirian, F.F.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) design uses seismic isolation as a cost effective approach for simplifying seismic design of the reactor module, and for enhancing margins to handle beyond design basis earthquakes (BDBE). A comprehensive seismic analysis plan has been developed to confirm the adequacy of the design and to support regulatory licensing activities. In this plan state-of-the-art computer programs are used to evaluate the system response of the ALMR. Several factors that affect seismic response will be investigated. These include variability in the input earthquake mechanism, soil-structure interaction effects, and nonlinear response of the isolators. This paper reviews the type of analyses that are planned, and discuses the approach that will be used for validating the specific features of computer programs that are required in the analysis of isolated structures. To date, different linear and nonlinear seismic analyses have been completed. The results of recently completed linear analyses have been summarized elsewhere. The findings of three-dimensional seismic nonlinear analyses are presented in this paper. These analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of changes of isolator horizontal stiffness with horizontal displacement on overall response, to develop an approach for representing BDBE events with return periods exceeding 10,000 years, and to assess margins in the design for BDBEs. From the results of these analyses and bearing test data, it can be concluded that a properly designed and constructed seismic isolation system can accommodate displacements several times the design safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for the ALMR. (author)

  8. Real-time monitoring of seismicity and deformation during the Bárdarbunga rifting event and associated caldera subsidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jónsdóttir, Kristín; Ófeigsson, Benedikt; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Roberts, Matthew; Barsotti, Sara; Gudmundsson, Gunnar; Hensch, Martin; Bergsson, Bergur; Kjartansson, vilhjálmur; Erlendsson, Pálmi; Friðriksdóttir, Hildur; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; Guðmundsson, Magnús; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn; Árnadóttir, Thóra; Heimisson, Elías; Hjorleifsdóttir, Vala; Soring, Jón; Björnsson, Bogi; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    We present a monitoring overview of a rifting event and associated caldera subsidence in a glaciated environment during the Bárðarbunga volcanic crisis. Following a slight increase in seismicity and a weak deformation signal, noticed a few months before the unrest by the SIL monitoring team, an intense seismic swarm began in the subglacial Bárðarbunga caldera on August 16 2014. During the following two weeks, a dyke intruded into the crust beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, propagating 48 km from the caldera to the east-north-east and north of the glacier where an effusive eruption started in Holuhraun. The eruption is still ongoing at the time of writing and has become the largest eruption in over 200 years in Iceland. The dyke propagation was episodic with a variable rate and on several occasions low frequency seismic tremor was observed. Four ice cauldrons, manifestations of small subglacial eruptions, were detected. Soon after the swarm began the 7x11 km wide caldera started to subside and is still subsiding (although at slower rates) and has in total subsided over 60 meters. Unrest in subglacial volcanoes always calls for interdisciplinary efforts and teamwork plays a key role for efficient monitoring. Iceland has experienced six subglacial volcanic crises since modern digital monitoring started in the early 90s. With every crisis the monitoring capabilities, data interpretations, communication and information dissemination procedures have improved. The Civil Protection calls for a board of experts and scientists (Civil Protection Science Board, CPSB) to share their knowledge and provide up-to-date information on the current status of the volcano, the relevant hazards and most likely scenarios. The evolution of the rifting was monitored in real-time by the joint interpretation of seismic and cGPS data. The dyke propagation could be tracked and new, updated models of the dyke volume were presented at the CPSB meetings, often daily. In addition, deformation

  9. Seismic fragility analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostov, Marin

    2000-01-01

    In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

  10. The Absence of Remotely Triggered Seismicity in Japan from 1997 to 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, R. H.; Brodsky, E. E.

    2003-12-01

    Observations of increased seismicity following the Landers, Hector Mine, Izmit, and the Denali, earthquakes suggests remote seismic triggering occurs in geothermal locations as far as 3150 km. This study attempts to determine if the same effects occur in Japan, a geothermal region of high seismicity. For the period of 1997 to 2002, we searched for significant increases in the seismicity levels following earthquakes with Mw >= 6.5 at distances larger than conventionally associated with aftershocks. Additionally, we examined available waveform data in order to detect uncataloged events hidden by the coda of the mainshock. Five events had associated waveform data: March 24, 2001 Geiyo, Mw = 6.8; March 28, 2000 Volcano Islands, Mw = 7.6; July 30, 2000 Honshu, Mw = 6.5; October 6, 2000 Tottori, Mw = 6.7; and the January 28, 1999 Kuril Islands, Mw = 6.8 earthquake. Located 260 km from the Geiyo epicenter, station TKO recorded one possible triggered event within 65 km during the hour following the mainshock. However, the TKO data contains many anomalous spikes, and we are not confident the record is clear enough to differentiate small local events from noise. An ambiguous, two-day, regional seismicity increase followed the Volcano Islands event. We interpret the swarm associated with the signal as coincidental because no similar swarms occurred at the same location following Tottori or Geiyo, both of which had an order of magnitude larger shaking. Both waveforms and cataloged events indicate no triggering occurred following the Honshu, Tottori and Kuril Islands mainshocks. We do not interpret the one indefinite local event recorded by TKO as evidence for mid range dynamic triggering, implying that the 2.5 cm/s shaking at TKO did not exceed the local triggering threshold. Additionally, the lack of triggering following Honshu, Tottori, and Kuril Islands suggests that the 1, 2.5 and 2.6 cm/s shaking at distances of 182, 238, and 267 km, respectively, creates lower bounds for

  11. Seismic tests on models of reinforced-concrete Category I buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, R.C.; Endebrock, E.G.; Dunwoody, W.E.; Bennett, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    The behavior of reinforced concrete (R/C), Category I noncontainment nuclear power plant structures subjected to seismic events of magnitude greater than used in their original design has been investigated using two sizes of scale models. Test results were analyzed to determine (1) maximum input for the response to remain linear/elastic; (2) changes in stiffness, damping, and modal frequency that are produced by seismic input greater than that causing linear elastic response; (3) changes in floor response spectra when the structure's response is nonlinear/inelastic; and (4) the magnitude of the seismic event necessary to fail (excessively crack) these structures. By constructing models of two sizes, it was possible to make two independent predictions of prototype behavior and to compare the results from the two models. 1 ref., 4 figs., 1 tab

  12. Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

  13. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  14. Femtomolar detection of single mismatches by discriminant analysis of DNA hybridization events using gold nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xingyi; Sim, Sang Jun

    2013-03-21

    Even though DNA-based nanosensors have been demonstrated for quantitative detection of analytes and diseases, hybridization events have never been numerically investigated for further understanding of DNA mediated interactions. Here, we developed a nanoscale platform with well-designed capture and detection gold nanoprobes to precisely evaluate the hybridization events. The capture gold nanoprobes were mono-laid on glass and the detection probes were fabricated via a novel competitive conjugation method. The two kinds of probes combined in a suitable orientation following the hybridization with the target. We found that hybridization efficiency was markedly dependent on electrostatic interactions between DNA strands, which can be tailored by adjusting the salt concentration of the incubation solution. Due to the much lower stability of the double helix formed by mismatches, the hybridization efficiencies of single mismatched (MMT) and perfectly matched DNA (PMT) were different. Therefore, we obtained an optimized salt concentration that allowed for discrimination of MMT from PMT without stringent control of temperature or pH. The results indicated this to be an ultrasensitive and precise nanosensor for the diagnosis of genetic diseases.

  15. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic data, January to March 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Jennifer S.; Okubo, Paul G.

    2010-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during January–March 2009. The seismic summary offers earthquake hypocenters without interpretation as a source of preliminary data and is complete in that most data for events of M≥1.5 are included. All latitude and longitude references in this report are stated in Old Hawaiian Datum.

  16. The seismic monitoring network of Mt. Vesuvius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Orazi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Mt. Vesuvius (southern Italy is one of the most hazardous volcanoes in the world. Its activity is currently characterized by moderate seismicity, with hypocenters located beneath the crater zone with depth rarely exceeding 5 km and magnitudes generally less than 3. The current configuration of the seismic monitoring network of Mt. Vesuvius consists of 18 seismic stations and 7 infrasound microphones. During the period 2006-2010 a seismic array with 48 channels was also operative. The station distribution provides appropriate coverage of the area around the volcanic edifice. The current development of the network and its geometry, under conditions of low seismic noise, allows locating seismic events with M<1. Remote instruments continuously transmit data to the main acquisition center in Naples. Data transmission is realized using different technological solutions based on UHF, Wi-Fi radio links, and TCP/IP client-server applications. Data are collected in the monitoring center of the Osservatorio Vesuviano (Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Naples section, which is equipped with systems for displaying and analyzing signals, using both real-time automatic and manual procedures. 24-hour surveillance allows to immediately communicate any significant anomaly to the Civil Protection authorities.

  17. Recent Earthquakes Mark the Onset of Induced Seismicity in Northeastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martone, P.; Nikulin, A.; Pietras, J.

    2017-12-01

    The link between induced seismicity and injection of hydraulic fracturing wastewater has largely been accepted and corroborated through case studies in Colorado, Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. To date, induced seismicity has largely impacted hydrocarbon-producing regions in the Central United States, while the seismic response in Eastern states, like Pennsylvania, has been relatively muted. In recent years, Pennsylvania exponentially increased hydrocarbon production from the Marcellus and Utica Shales and our results indicate that this activity has triggered an onset of induced seismicity in areas of the state where no previous seismic activity was reported. Three recent earthquakes in Northeastern Pennsylvania directly correlate to hydraulic fracturing activity, though USGS NEIC earthquake catalog locations have vertical errors up to 31km. We present signal analysis results of recorded waveforms of the three identified events and results of a high-precision relocation effort and improvements to the regional velocity model aimed at constraining the horizontal and vertical error in hypocenter position. We show that at least one event is positioned directly along the wellbore track of an active well and correlate its timing to the hydraulic fracturing schedule. Results show that in the absence of wastewater disposal in this area, it is possible to confidently make the connection between the hydraulic fracturing process and induced seismicity.

  18. Seismic Isolation Studies and Applications for Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun

    2005-01-01

    Seismic isolation, which is being used worldwide for buildings, is a well-known technology to protect structures from destructive earthquakes. In spite of the many potential advantages of a seismic isolation, however, the applications of a seismic isolation to nuclear facilities have been very limited because of a lack of sufficient knowledge about the isolation practices. The most important advantage of seismic isolation applications in nuclear power plants is that the safety and reliability of the plants can be remarkably improved through the standardization of the structures and equipment regardless of the seismic conditions of the sites. The standardization of structures and equipment will reduce the capital cost and design/construction schedule for future plants. Also, a seismic isolation can facilitate decoupling of the design and development for equipment, piping, and components due to the use of the generic in-structure response spectra associated with the standardized plant. Moreover, a seismic isolation will improve the plant safety margin against the design basis earthquake (DBE) as well as a beyond design basis seismic event due to its superior seismic performance. A number of seismic isolation systems have been developed and tested since 1970s, and some of them have been applied to conventional structures in several countries of high seismicity. In the nuclear field, there have been many studies on the applicability of such seismic isolation systems, but the application of a seismic isolation is very limited. Currently, there are some discussions on the application of seismic isolation systems to nuclear facilities between the nuclear industries and the regulatory agencies in the U.S.. In the future, a seismic isolation for nuclear facilities will be one of the important issues in the nuclear industry. This paper summarizes the past studies and applications of a seismic isolation in the nuclear industry

  19. PARAMETERS OF KAMCHATKA SEISMICITY IN 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim A. Saltykov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes seismicity of Kamchatka for the period of 2008 and presents 2D distribution of background seismicity parameters calculated from data published in the Regional Catalogue of Kamchatka Earthquakes. Parameters under study are total released seismic energy, seismic activity A10, slope of recurrence graph γ, parameters of RTL, ΔS and Z-function methods, and clustering of earthquakes. Estimations of seismicity are obtained for a region bordered by latitude 50.5–56.5N, longitude 156E–167E, with depths to 300 km. Earthquakes of energy classes not less than 8.5 as per the Fedotov’s classification are considered. The total seismic energy released in 2008 is estimated. According to a function of annual seismic energy distribution, an amount of seismic energy released in 2008 was close to the median level (Fig. 1. Over 2/3 of the total amount of seismic energy released in 2008 resulted from three largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9. About 5 percent of the total number of seismic events are comprised of grouped earthquakes, i.e. aftershocks and swarms. A schematic map of the largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9 and grouped seismic events which occurred in 2008 is given in Fig. 2; their parameters are listed in Table 1. Grouped earthquakes are excluded from the catalogue. A map showing epicenters of independent earthquakes is given in Fig. 3. The slope of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 is based on the Gutenberg-Richter law stating the fundamental property of seismic process. The recurrence graph slope is calculated from continuous exponential distribution of earthquakes by energy classes. Using γ is conditioned by observations that in some cases the slope of the recurrence graph decreases prior to a large earthquake. Activity A10 is calculated from the number of earthquakes N and recurrence graph slope γ. Average slopes of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 for the area under study in 2008 are calculated; our

  20. Advanced event reweighting using multivariate analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martschei, D; Feindt, M; Honc, S; Wagner-Kuhr, J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate analysis (MVA) methods, especially discrimination techniques such as neural networks, are key ingredients in modern data analysis and play an important role in high energy physics. They are usually trained on simulated Monte Carlo (MC) samples to discriminate so called 'signal' from 'background' events and are then applied to data to select real events of signal type. We here address procedures that improve this work flow. This will be the enhancement of data / MC agreement by reweighting MC samples on a per event basis. Then training MVAs on real data using the sPlot technique will be discussed. Finally we will address the construction of MVAs whose discriminator is independent of a certain control variable, i.e. cuts on this variable will not change the discriminator shape.

  1. Seismic damage sensing of bridge structures with TRIP reinforcement steel bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Yukio; Unjoh, Shigeki

    2001-07-01

    Intelligent reinforced concrete structures with transformation-induced-plasticity (TRIP) steel rebars that have self-diagnosis function are proposed. TRIP steel is special steel with Fe-Cr based formulation. It undergoes a permanent change in crystal structure in proportion to peak strain. This changes from non-magnetic to magnetic steel. By using the TRIP steel rebars, the seismic damage level of reinforced concrete structures can be easily recognized by measuring the residual magnetic level of the TRIP rebars, that is directly related to the peak strain during a seismic event. This information will be most helpful for repairing the damaged structures. In this paper, the feasibility of the proposed intelligent reinforced concrete structure for seismic damage sensing is experimentally studied. The relation among the damage level, peak strain of rebars, and residual magnetic level of rebars of reinforced concrete beams implemented with TRIP steel bars was experimentally studied. As the result of this study, this intelligent structure can diagnose accumulated strain/damage anticipated during seismic event.