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Sample records for seismic demand models

  1. Seismic demand evaluation based on actual earthquake records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jhaveri, D.P.; Czarnecki, R.M.; Kassawara, R.P.; Singh, A.

    1990-01-01

    Seismic input in the form of floor response spectra (FRS) are needed in seismic design and evaluation of equipment in nuclear power plants (NPPs). These are typically determined by analytical procedures using mathematical models of NPP structures and are known to be very conservative. Recorded earthquake data, in the form of acceleration response spectra computed from the recorded acceleration time histories, have been collected from NPP structures located in seismically active areas. Statistics of the ratios, or amplification factors, between the FRS at typical floors and the acceleration response spectra at the basemat or in the freefield, are obtained for typical NPP structures. These amplification factors are typically in terms of the peak spectral and zero period values, as well as a function of frequency. The average + 1σ values of these ratios, for those cases where enough data are available, are proposed to be used as limits to analytically calculated FRS, or for construction of simplified FRS for determining seismic input or demand in equipment qualification. (orig.)

  2. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models

  3. Seismic modelling of shallow coalfields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawton, D.C. (University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics.)

    1987-01-01

    This study was undertaken in order to determine whether reflection seismic surveys can be used to map stratigraphic and structural detail of shallow Plains-type coal deposits. Two coalfields in central Alberta were used to examine and determine optimum acquisition parameters for reflection seismic surveys in such settings. The study was based on 1-D and 2-D numerical seismic modelling using sonic and density well logs to formulate a layered earth model. Additional objectives were to interpret the reflection seismic data in terms of geologic features in the study area, and to investigate the relationship between vertical resolution and field acquisition geometry. 27 refs., 41 figs.

  4. Russian seismic standards and demands for equipment and their conformity with international standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaznovsky, S.; Ostretsov, I.

    1993-01-01

    The principle regulations of standard documents concerning seismic safety of NPPs and demands for reactor equipment conformity with international standards are presented in this report. General state of NPP safety standards is reviewed, with a special emphasis on the state of seismic design standards for NPP equipment and piping. Russian standards documents on seismic resistance of NPPs and requirements are compared to international ones

  5. Correlations between Energy and Displacement Demands for Performance-Based Seismic Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollaioli, Fabrizio; Bruno, Silvia; Decanini, Luis; Saragoni, Rodolfo

    2011-01-01

    (that can be considered as parameters representative of the amplitude, frequency content and duration of earthquake ground motions) and displacement-based response measures that are well correlated to structural and non-structural damage. For the purpose of quantifying the EDPs to be related to the energy measures, for comprehensive range of ground motion and structural characteristics, both simplified and more accurate numerical models will be used in this study for the estimation of local and global displacement and energy demands. Parametric linear and nonlinear time-history analyses will be performed on elastic and inelastic SDOF and MDOF systems, in order to assume information on the seismic response of a wide range of current structures. Hysteretic models typical of frame force/displacement behavior will be assumed for the local inelastic cyclic response of the systems. A wide range of vibration periods will be taken into account so as to define displacement, interstory drift and energy spectra for MDOF systems. Various scalar measures related to the deformation demand will be used in this research. These include the spectral displacements, the peak roof drift ratio, and the peak interstory drift ratio. A total of about 900 recorded ground motions covering a broad variety of condition in terms of frequency content, duration and amplitude will be used as input in the dynamic analyses. The records are obtained from 40 earthquakes and grouped as a function of magnitude of the event, source-to-site condition and site soil condition. In addition, in the data-set of records a considerable number of near-fault signals is included, in recognition of the particular significance of pulse-like time histories in causing large seismic demands to the structures.

  6. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  7. Job demands-resources model

    OpenAIRE

    Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...

  8. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  9. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  10. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  11. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  12. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  13. Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

  14. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  15. Seismic waveform modeling over cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Cong; Friederich, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    With the fast growing computational technologies, numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation achieved huge successes. Obtaining the synthetic waveforms through numerical simulation receives an increasing amount of attention from seismologists. However, computational seismology is a data-intensive research field, and the numerical packages usually come with a steep learning curve. Users are expected to master considerable amount of computer knowledge and data processing skills. Training users to use the numerical packages, correctly access and utilize the computational resources is a troubled task. In addition to that, accessing to HPC is also a common difficulty for many users. To solve these problems, a cloud based solution dedicated on shallow seismic waveform modeling has been developed with the state-of-the-art web technologies. It is a web platform integrating both software and hardware with multilayer architecture: a well designed SQL database serves as the data layer, HPC and dedicated pipeline for it is the business layer. Through this platform, users will no longer need to compile and manipulate various packages on the local machine within local network to perform a simulation. By providing users professional access to the computational code through its interfaces and delivering our computational resources to the users over cloud, users can customize the simulation at expert-level, submit and run the job through it.

  16. Homogenization of Electromagnetic and Seismic Wavefields for Joint Inverse Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, G. A.; Commer, M.; Petrov, P.; Um, E. S.

    2011-12-01

    A significant obstacle in developing a robust joint imaging technology exploiting seismic and electromagnetic (EM) wave fields is the resolution at which these different geophysical measurements sense the subsurface. Imaging of seismic reflection data is an order of magnitude finer in resolution and scale compared to images produced with EM data. A consistent joint image of the subsurface geophysical attributes (velocity, electrical conductivity) requires/demands the different geophysical data types be similar in their resolution of the subsurface. The superior resolution of seismic data results from the fact that the energy propagates as a wave, while propagation of EM energy is diffusive and attenuates with distance. On the other hand, the complexity of the seismic wave field can be a significant problem due to high reflectivity of the subsurface and the generation of multiple scattering events. While seismic wave fields have been very useful in mapping the subsurface for energy resources, too much scattering and too many reflections can lead to difficulties in imaging and interpreting seismic data. To overcome these obstacles a formulation for joint imaging of seismic and EM wave fields is introduced, where each data type is matched in resolution. In order to accomplish this, seismic data are first transformed into the Laplace-Fourier Domain, which changes the modeling of the seismic wave field from wave propagation to diffusion. Though high frequency information (reflectivity) is lost with this transformation, several benefits follow: (1) seismic and EM data can be easily matched in resolution, governed by the same physics of diffusion, (2) standard least squares inversion works well with diffusive type problems including both transformed seismic and EM, (3) joint imaging of seismic and EM data may produce better starting velocity models critical for successful reverse time migration or full waveform imaging of seismic data (non transformed) and (4

  17. The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme

  18. Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: A bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari. F.; . E-mails: Luis.Decanini@uniroma1.it; Fabrizio.Mollaioli@uniroma1.it)

    2002-07-01

    The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with a description of 'roundshaking scenarios', or with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. We prefer a scenario-based, deterministic approach in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes. The joint use of reliable synthetic signals and observations permits the computation of advanced hazard indicators (e.g. damaging potential) that take into account local soil properties. The envelope of synthetic elastic energy spectra reproduces the distribution of the energy demand in the most relevant frequency range for seismic engineering. The synthetic accelerograms can be fruitfully used for design and strengthening of structures, also when innovative techniques, like seismic isolation, are employed. For these

  19. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  20. Seismic quiescence in a frictional earthquake model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Oleg M.; Peyrard, Michel

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the origin of seismic quiescence with a generalized version of the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquakes and show that it can be generated by a multipeaked probability distribution of the thresholds at which contacts break. Such a distribution is not assumed a priori but naturally results from the aging of the contacts. We show that the model can exhibit quiescence as well as enhanced foreshock activity, depending on the value of some parameters. This provides a generic understanding for seismic quiescence, which encompasses earlier specific explanations and could provide a pathway for a classification of faults.

  1. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  2. Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Qayyum, Abdul

    2005-01-01

    The study estimates the dynamic demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan by employing cointegration analysis and error correction mechanism. The parameters of preferred model are found to be super-exogenous for the relevant class of interventions. It is found that the rate of inflation is an important determinant of money demand in Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the rates of interest, market rate, and bond yield are important for the long-run money demand behaviour. Since the preferred...

  3. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

  4. Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soloninko K.S.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

  5. Investigating Efficiency of Vector-Valued Intensity Measures in Seismic Demand Assessment of Concrete Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Alembagheri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency of vector-valued intensity measures for predicting the seismic demand in gravity dams is investigated. The Folsom gravity dam-reservoir coupled system is selected and numerically analyzed under a set of two-hundred actual ground motions. First, the well-defined scalar IMs are separately investigated, and then they are coupled to form two-parameter vector IMs. After that, IMs consisting of spectral acceleration at the first-mode natural period of the dam-reservoir system along with a measure of the spectral shape (the ratio of spectral acceleration at a second period to the first-mode spectral acceleration value are considered. It is attempted to determine the optimal second period by categorizing the spectral acceleration at the first-mode period of vibration. The efficiency of the proposed vector IMs is compared with scalar ones considering various structural responses as EDPs. Finally, the probabilistic seismic behavior of the dam is investigated by calculating its fragility curves employing scalar and vector IMs considering the effect of zero response values.

  6. Evaluation of induced seismicity forecast models in the Induced Seismicity Test Bench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Zechar, Jeremy; Doetsch, Joseph; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Wiemer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. Here, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models that incorporate a different mix of physical understanding and stochastic representation of the induced sequences: Shapiro in Space (SiS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). SiS is based on three pillars: the seismicity rate is computed with help of the seismogenic index and a simple exponential decay of the seismicity; the magnitude distribution follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation; and seismicity is distributed in space based on smoothing seismicity during the learning period with 3D Gaussian kernels. The HySei model describes seismicity triggered by pressure diffusion with irreversible permeability enhancement. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. HySei forecasts the seismicity rate well, but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SiS forecasts the spatial distribution well but not the seismicity rate. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in. Ensemble models that combine HySei's rate forecast with SiS's spatial forecast outperform each individual model.

  7. Introducing Seismic Tomography with Computational Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, R.; Neves, M. L.; Teodoro, V.

    2011-12-01

    Learning seismic tomography principles and techniques involves advanced physical and computational knowledge. In depth learning of such computational skills is a difficult cognitive process that requires a strong background in physics, mathematics and computer programming. The corresponding learning environments and pedagogic methodologies should then involve sets of computational modelling activities with computer software systems which allow students the possibility to improve their mathematical or programming knowledge and simultaneously focus on the learning of seismic wave propagation and inverse theory. To reduce the level of cognitive opacity associated with mathematical or programming knowledge, several computer modelling systems have already been developed (Neves & Teodoro, 2010). Among such systems, Modellus is particularly well suited to achieve this goal because it is a domain general environment for explorative and expressive modelling with the following main advantages: 1) an easy and intuitive creation of mathematical models using just standard mathematical notation; 2) the simultaneous exploration of images, tables, graphs and object animations; 3) the attribution of mathematical properties expressed in the models to animated objects; and finally 4) the computation and display of mathematical quantities obtained from the analysis of images and graphs. Here we describe virtual simulations and educational exercises which enable students an easy grasp of the fundamental of seismic tomography. The simulations make the lecture more interactive and allow students the possibility to overcome their lack of advanced mathematical or programming knowledge and focus on the learning of seismological concepts and processes taking advantage of basic scientific computation methods and tools.

  8. Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2014-01-01

    Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...

  9. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  10. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  11. Numerical Modelling of Seismic Slope Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdeau, Céline; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Fleurisson, Jean-Alain; Grandjean, Gilles

    Earthquake ground-motions recorded worldwide have shown that many morphological and geological structures (topography, sedimentary basin) are prone to amplify the seismic shaking (San Fernando, 1971 [Davis and West 1973] Irpinia, 1980 [Del Pezzo et al. 1983]). This phenomenon, called site effects, was again recently observed in El Salvador when, on the 13th of January 2001, the country was struck by a M = 7.6 earthquake. Indeed, while horizontal accelerations on a rock site at Berlin, 80 km from the epicentre, did not exceed 0.23 g, they reached 0.6 g at Armenia, 110 km from the epicentre. Armenia is located on a small hill underlaid by a few meters thick pyroclastic deposits. Both the local topography and the presence of surface layers are likely to have caused the observed amplification effects, which are supposed to have contributed to the triggering of some of the hundreds of landslides related to this seismic event (Murphy et al. 2002). In order to better characterize the way site effects may influence the triggering of landslides along slopes, 2D numerical elastic and elasto-plastic models were developed. Various geometrical, geological and seismic conditions were analysed and the dynamic behaviour of the slope under these con- ditions was studied in terms of creation and location of a sliding surface. Preliminary results suggest that the size of modelled slope failures is dependent on site effects.

  12. Development of Seismic Demand for Chang-Bin Offshore Wind Farm in Taiwan Strait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Kai Wang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Taiwan is located on the Pacific seismic belt, and the soil conditions of Taiwan’s offshore wind farms are softer than those in Europe. To ensure safety and stability of the offshore wind turbine supporting structures, it is important to assess the offshore wind farms seismic forces reasonably. In this paper, the relevant seismic and geological data are obtained for Chang-Bin offshore wind farm in Taiwan Strait, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA is carried out, and the first uniform hazard response spectrum for Chang-Bin offshore wind farm is achieved. Compared with existing design response spectrum in the local regulation, this site-specific seismic hazard analysis has influence on the seismic force considered in the design of supporting structures and therefore affects the cost of the supporting structures. The results show that a site-specific seismic hazard analysis is required for high seismic area. The paper highlights the importance of seismic hazard analysis to assess the offshore wind farms seismic forces. The follow-up recommendations and research directions are given for Taiwan’s offshore wind turbine supporting structures under seismic force considerations.

  13. A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

  14. Data model for Demand Side Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona-Vasilica OPREA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Demand Side Management (DSM is a portfolio of measures to improve the energy system mainly at the consumption level. In this paper we propose a data model for DSM stating from the optimization methods approach in SMARTRADE project from different perspectives of several entities that include: Transmission System Operator (TSO/Distribution System Operators (DSOs perspectives in case of security/reliability concerns: minimum amount of load (or generation shedding; aggregators perspective in case of demand or generation shedding request: Which demand (or generators should be shed?; consumers perspective: load shifting (time-of-use (ToU tariffs and optimum contract strategies with the aggregators (also known as balancing responsible parties- BRP for load shedding.

  15. Observations and modeling of seismic background noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Jon R.

    1993-01-01

    The preparation of this report had two purposes. One was to present a catalog of seismic background noise spectra obtained from a worldwide network of seismograph stations. The other purpose was to refine and document models of seismic background noise that have been in use for several years. The second objective was, in fact, the principal reason that this study was initiated and influenced the procedures used in collecting and processing the data.With a single exception, all of the data used in this study were extracted from the digital data archive at the U.S. Geological Survey's Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL). This archive dates from 1972 when ASL first began deploying digital seismograph systems and collecting and distributing digital data under the sponsorship of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). There have been many changes and additions to the global seismograph networks during the past twenty years, but perhaps none as significant as the current deployment of very broadband seismographs by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of California San Diego (UCSD) under the scientific direction of the IRIS consortium. The new data acquisition systems have extended the bandwidth and resolution of seismic recording, and they utilize high-density recording media that permit the continuous recording of broadband data. The data improvements and continuous recording greatly benefit and simplify surveys of seismic background noise.Although there are many other sources of digital data, the ASL archive data were used almost exclusively because of accessibility and because the data systems and their calibration are well documented for the most part. Fortunately, the ASL archive contains high-quality data from other stations in addition to those deployed by the USGS. Included are data from UCSD IRIS/IDA stations, the Regional Seismic Test Network (RSTN) deployed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the TERRAscope network

  16. Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

    2017-06-01

    Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

  17. Modelling UK energy demand to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, S.D.

    1980-01-01

    A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author. (author)

  18. Modelling UK energy demand to 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, S D [Sussex Univ., Brighton (UK)

    1980-03-01

    A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author.

  19. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  20. Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

  1. Multi-hole seismic modeling in 3-D space and cross-hole seismic tomography analysis for boulder detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Fei; Liu, Jiangping; Wang, Jing; Zong, Yuquan; Yu, Mingyu

    2016-11-01

    A boulder stone, a common geological feature in south China, is referred to the remnant of a granite body which has been unevenly weathered. Undetected boulders could adversely impact the schedule and safety of subway construction when using tunnel boring machine (TBM) method. Therefore, boulder detection has always been a key issue demanded to be solved before the construction. Nowadays, cross-hole seismic tomography is a high resolution technique capable of boulder detection, however, the method can only solve for velocity in a 2-D slice between two wells, and the size and central position of the boulder are generally difficult to be accurately obtained. In this paper, the authors conduct a multi-hole wave field simulation and characteristic analysis of a boulder model based on the 3-D elastic wave staggered-grid finite difference theory, and also a 2-D imaging analysis based on first arrival travel time. The results indicate that (1) full wave field records could be obtained from multi-hole seismic wave simulations. Simulation results describe that the seismic wave propagation pattern in cross-hole high-velocity spherical geological bodies is more detailed and can serve as a basis for the wave field analysis. (2) When a cross-hole seismic section cuts through the boulder, the proposed method provides satisfactory cross-hole tomography results; however, when the section is closely positioned to the boulder, such high-velocity object in the 3-D space would impact on the surrounding wave field. The received diffracted wave interferes with the primary wave and in consequence the picked first arrival travel time is not derived from the profile, which results in a false appearance of high-velocity geology features. Finally, the results of 2-D analysis in 3-D modeling space are comparatively analyzed with the physical model test vis-a-vis the effect of high velocity body on the seismic tomographic measurements.

  2. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

    2012-01-01

    If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  4. Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

  5. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    hypothesis of the existence of phenomenon change trends, the next step in the methodology of forecasting is the determination of a specific growth curve that describes the regularity of the development in time. These curves of growth are obtained by the analytical representation (expression of dynamic lines. There are two basic stages in the process of expression and they are: - The choice of the type of curve the shape of which corresponds to the character of the dynamic order variation - the determination of the number of values (evaluation of the curve parameters. The most widespread method of forecasting is the trend extrapolation. The basis of the trend extrapolation is the continuing of past trends in the future. The simplicity of the trend extrapolation process, on the one hand, and the absence of other information on the other hand, are the main reasons why the trend extrapolation is used for forecasting. The trend extrapolation is founded on the following assumptions: - The phenomenon development can be presented as an evolutionary trajectory or trend, - General conditions that influenced the trend development in the past will not undergo substantial changes in the future. Spare parts demand forecasting is constantly being done in all warehouses, workshops, and at all levels. Without demand forecasting, neither planning nor decision making can be done. Demand forecasting is the input for determining the level of reserve, size of the order, ordering cycles, etc. The question that arises is the one of the reliability and accuracy of a forecast and its effects. Forecasting 'by feeling' is not to be dismissed if there is nothing better, but in this case, one must be prepared for forecasting failures that cause unnecessary accumulation of certain spare parts, and also a chronic shortage of other spare parts. All this significantly increases costs and does not provide a satisfactory supply of spare parts. The main problem of the application of this model is that each

  6. Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J. E.; Jensen, J. R.; Tinney, L. R.; Rector, M.

    1975-01-01

    In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

  7. Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Feng

    2000-01-01

    This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs

  8. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  9. From Geodetic Imaging of Seismic and Aseismic Fault Slip to Dynamic Modeling of the Seismic Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avouac, Jean-Philippe

    2015-05-01

    Understanding the partitioning of seismic and aseismic fault slip is central to seismotectonics as it ultimately determines the seismic potential of faults. Thanks to advances in tectonic geodesy, it is now possible to develop kinematic models of the spatiotemporal evolution of slip over the seismic cycle and to determine the budget of seismic and aseismic slip. Studies of subduction zones and continental faults have shown that aseismic creep is common and sometimes prevalent within the seismogenic depth range. Interseismic coupling is generally observed to be spatially heterogeneous, defining locked patches of stress accumulation, to be released in future earthquakes or aseismic transients, surrounded by creeping areas. Clay-rich tectonites, high temperature, and elevated pore-fluid pressure seem to be key factors promoting aseismic creep. The generally logarithmic time evolution of afterslip is a distinctive feature of creeping faults that suggests a logarithmic dependency of fault friction on slip rate, as observed in laboratory friction experiments. Most faults can be considered to be paved with interlaced patches where the friction law is either rate-strengthening, inhibiting seismic rupture propagation, or rate-weakening, allowing for earthquake nucleation. The rate-weakening patches act as asperities on which stress builds up in the interseismic period; they might rupture collectively in a variety of ways. The pattern of interseismic coupling can help constrain the return period of the maximum- magnitude earthquake based on the requirement that seismic and aseismic slip sum to match long-term slip. Dynamic models of the seismic cycle based on this conceptual model can be tuned to reproduce geodetic and seismological observations. The promise and pitfalls of using such models to assess seismic hazard are discussed.

  10. Broadband seismic : case study modeling and data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahyaningtyas, M. B.; Bahar, A.

    2018-03-01

    Seismic data with wide range of frequency is needed due to its close relation to resolution and the depth of the target. Low frequency provides deeper penetration for the imaging of deep target. In addition, the wider the frequency bandwidth, the sharper the wavelet. Sharp wavelet is responsible for high-resolution imaging and is very helpful to resolve thin bed. As a result, the demand for broadband seismic data is rising and it spurs the technology development of broadband seismic in oil and gas industry. An obstacle that is frequently found on marine seismic data is the existence of ghost that affects the frequency bandwidth contained on the seismic data. Ghost alters bandwidth to bandlimited. To reduce ghost effect and to acquire broadband seismic data, lots of attempts are used, both on the acquisition and on the processing of seismic data. One of the acquisition technique applied is the multi-level streamer, where some streamers are towed on some levels of depth. Multi-level streamer will yield data with varied ghost notch shown on frequency domain. If the ghost notches are not overlapping, the summation of multi-level streamer data will reduce the ghost effect. The result of the multi-level streamer data processing shows that reduction of ghost notch on frequency domain indeed takes place.

  11. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  12. 3D Modelling of Seismically Active Parts of Underground Faults via Seismic Data Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Konstantaras, Anthony

    2015-04-01

    During the last few years rapid steps have been taken towards drilling for oil in the western Mediterranean sea. Since most of the countries in the region benefit mainly from tourism and considering that the Mediterranean is a closed sea only replenishing its water once every ninety years careful measures are being taken to ensure safe drilling. In that concept this research work attempts to derive a three dimensional model of the seismically active parts of the underlying underground faults in areas of petroleum interest. For that purpose seismic spatio-temporal clustering has been applied to seismic data to identify potential distinct seismic regions in the area of interest. Results have been coalesced with two dimensional maps of underground faults from past surveys and seismic epicentres, having followed careful reallocation processing, have been used to provide information regarding the vertical extent of multiple underground faults in the region of interest. The end product is a three dimensional map of the possible underground location and extent of the seismically active parts of underground faults. Indexing terms: underground faults modelling, seismic data mining, 3D visualisation, active seismic source mapping, seismic hazard evaluation, dangerous phenomena modelling Acknowledgment This research work is supported by the ESPA Operational Programme, Education and Life Long Learning, Students Practical Placement Initiative. References [1] Alves, T.M., Kokinou, E. and Zodiatis, G.: 'A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins', Marine Pollution Bulletin, In Press, 2014 [2] Ciappa, A., Costabile, S.: 'Oil spill hazard assessment using a reverse trajectory method for the Egadi marine protected area (Central Mediterranean Sea)', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 84 (1-2), pp. 44-55, 2014 [3] Ganas, A., Karastathis, V., Moshou, A., Valkaniotis, S., Mouzakiotis

  13. Demand modelling for central heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, A.

    2000-07-01

    Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

  14. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  15. Modeling of petroleum products demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauvel, A.; Jamin, F.; Cholet, G.

    1995-01-01

    This project was carried out under the responsibility of the Strategy-Economics-Program Division of the ''Institut Francais du Petrole''. The goal was the short-term (12 months) forecasting of the demand with regard to the four leading petroleum products in France - gas oil (GO), automotive (CA), home heating oil (FOD) and heavy fuel oil (FL). It was decided to test an original method (1) and to compare it with the widely used Box and Jenkins method (2), which gives good results for the GO and CA series but which proves disappointing for the FOD and FL series. This study is in two parts: (1) the first part describes the original method by breaking it down into trends and seasonality, with the model being additive or multiplicative. We improved its performances by using the theory of the Weiner filter; (2) the second part concerns Box an Jenkins modeling. This model was used on the unprocessed series and then on the series corrected for the influence of working days with the help of the ''Census-X11'' deseasonalization program. For each method, the principal phases are described for the modeling of gas oil on the French domestic market. For the other products, only the principal results are given, i.e. structure of the model retained, matching with reality, reliability of forecasts. (authors). 5 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs

  16. Background noise model development for seismic stations of KMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Youngsoo

    2010-05-01

    The background noise recorded at seismometer is exist at any seismic signal due to the natural phenomena of the medium which the signal passed through. Reducing the seismic noise is very important to improve the data quality in seismic studies. But, the most important aspect of reducing seismic noise is to find the appropriate place before installing the seismometer. For this reason, NIMR(National Institution of Meteorological Researches) starts to develop a model of standard background noise for the broadband seismic stations of the KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) using a continuous data set obtained from 13 broadband stations during the period of 2007 and 2008. We also developed the model using short period seismic data from 10 stations at the year of 2009. The method of Mcmara and Buland(2004) is applied to analyse background noise of Korean Peninsula. The fact that borehole seismometer records show low noise level at frequency range greater than 1 Hz compared with that of records at the surface indicate that the cultural noise of inland Korean Peninsula should be considered to process the seismic data set. Reducing Double Frequency peak also should be regarded because the Korean Peninsula surrounded by the seas from eastern, western and southern part. The development of KMA background model shows that the Peterson model(1993) is not applicable to fit the background noise signal generated from Korean Peninsula.

  17. Seismically integrated geologic modelling: Guntong Field, Malay Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvert, Craig S.; Bhuyan, K.; Sterling, J. Helwick; Hill, Rob E.; Hubbard, R. Scott; Khare, Vijay; Wahrmund, Leslie A.; Wang, Gann-Shyong

    1998-12-31

    This presentation relates to a research project on offshore seismically reservoir modelling. The goal of the project was to develop and test a process for interpreting reservoir properties from 3-D seismic data and for integrating these data into the building of 3-D geologic models that would be suitable for use in flow simulation studies. The project produced a 3-D geologic model for three reservoir intervals and three predominantly non-reservoir intervals. Each reservoir interval was subdivided into faces that were determined by integrating core, well log, and seismic interpretations. predictions of porosity and lithology used in building the geologic model were made using seismic attributes calculated from acoustic impedance data. 8 figs.

  18. Seismic model of the nuclear boiler SPX2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christodoulou, K.

    1982-01-01

    A model of the nuclear boiler SPX2 is proposed in this paper enabling to carry out comparative calculations on the response to seismic effects. The calculations are made in CISE and SEPTEN departments of Electricite de France [fr

  19. Seismic modelling of coal bed methane strata, Willow Creek, Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, S.E.; Mayer, R.; Lawton, D.C.; Langenberg, W. [Consortium for Research in Elastic Wave Exploration Seismology, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    The purpose is to determine the feasibility of applying high- resolution reflection seismic surveying to coalbed methane (CBM) exploration and development. Numerical reflection seismic methods are examined for measuring the mapping continuity and coherence of coal zones. Numerical modelling of a coal zone in Upper Cretaceous sediments near Willow Creek, Alberta indicates that seismic data that is predominantly of 100 Hz is required to map the coal zone and lateral facies variations within the deposit. For resolution of individual coal seams, a central frequency >150 Hz would be needed. 26 refs., 17 figs., 3 tabs.

  20. Mechanical System Simulations for Seismic Signature Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lacombe, J

    2001-01-01

    .... Results for an M1A1 and T72 are discussed. By analyzing the simulated seismic signature data in conjunction with the spectral features associated with the vibrations of specific vehicle sprung and un-sprung components we are able to make...

  1. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  2. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

    2017-12-01

    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  3. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  4. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  5. A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Steven N.

    1991-01-01

    A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

  6. Error Correction Model of the Demand for Money in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Qayyum, Abdul

    1998-01-01

    The paper estimated dynamic demand for money (Currency) function for Pakistan. it is concluded that in the long run money demand depends on income, rate of inflation and bond rate. The rate of Inflation and rate of interst on deposits emerged as important determinant of money demand in the short run. Moreover dynamic model remans stable througtout the study period.

  7. The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Gotts, Nicholas Mark

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

  8. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

    OpenAIRE

    Muminova, Adiba

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

  9. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  10. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  11. Applicability of deterministic methods in seismic site effects modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cioflan, C.O.; Radulian, M.; Apostol, B.F.; Ciucu, C.

    2005-01-01

    The up-to-date information related to local geological structure in the Bucharest urban area has been integrated in complex analyses of the seismic ground motion simulation using deterministic procedures. The data recorded for the Vrancea intermediate-depth large earthquakes are supplemented with synthetic computations all over the city area. The hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation and a relatively simple regional and local structure models allows a satisfactory reproduction of the strong motion records in the frequency domain (0.05-1)Hz. The new geological information and a deterministic analytical method which combine the modal summation technique, applied to model the seismic wave propagation between the seismic source and the studied sites, with the mode coupling approach used to model the seismic wave propagation through the local sedimentary structure of the target site, allows to extend the modelling to higher frequencies of earthquake engineering interest. The results of these studies (synthetic time histories of the ground motion parameters, absolute and relative response spectra etc) for the last 3 Vrancea strong events (August 31,1986 M w =7.1; May 30,1990 M w = 6.9 and October 27, 2004 M w = 6.0) can complete the strong motion database used for the microzonation purposes. Implications and integration of the deterministic results into the urban planning and disaster management strategies are also discussed. (authors)

  12. Requirements to cuban reinforcing steel under seismic demand; Exigencias al acero de refuerzo cubano ante la demanda sismica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frometa Salas, Z. P.; Villalonga Vianez, J. A.

    2009-07-01

    The behaviour of steel manufactured according to the Cuban standard NC 7:02 is studied, in order to evaluate about the conformance to requirements of the seismic design. Steel bars of Grade G-40 and G-60, of all commercial diameters between 10 and 32 mm, were test with this purpose. An experimental program was developed, that include dimensional verifications, tensile testing, ben and rebend, hardness testing and chemical composition tests. The results showed that steel bars satisfy geometric and tensile requirements of Cuban standard, however, some tested samples fulfill the demands that establish some codes about the required ductility to adequate perform of building of reinforced concrete where prevalence the earthquake. Conclusions about the necessity to consider in the future Cuban standard, special requirements to steel that assist the necessities of the earthquake engineering. Proposals are suggested to guarantee the ductile behaviour of the steel of national production. (Author)

  13. The job demands-resources model : state of the art

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to give a state-of-the art overview of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model Design/methodology/approach - The strengths and weaknesses of the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model regarding their predictive value for employee well being

  14. Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

  15. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty

    2017-04-01

    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

  16. A Theoretic Model of Transport Logistics Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Natalija Jolić; Nikolina Brnjac; Ivica Oreb

    2006-01-01

    Concerning transport logistics as relation between transportand integrated approaches to logistics, some transport and logisticsspecialists consider the tenn tautological. However,transport is one of the components of logistics, along with inventories,resources, warehousing, infonnation and goods handling.Transport logistics considers wider commercial and operationalframeworks within which the flow of goods is plannedand managed. The demand for transport logistics services canbe valorised as ...

  17. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  18. Seismic behaviour of PWR fuel assemblies model and its validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Queval, J.C.; Gantenbein, F.; Brochard, D.; Benjedidia, A.

    1991-01-01

    The validity of the models simulating the seismic behaviour of PWR cores can only be exactly demonstrated by seismic testing on groups of fuel assemblies. Shake table seismic tests of rows of assembly mock-ups, conducted by the CEA in conjunction with FRAMATOME, are presented in reference /1/. This paper addresses the initial comparisons between model and test results for a row of five assemblies in air. Two models are used: a model with a single beam per assembly, used regularly in accident analyses, and described in reference /2/, and a more refined 2-beam per assembly model, geared mainly towards interpretation of test results. The 2-beam model is discussed first, together with parametric studies used to characterize it, and the study of the assembly row for a period limited to 2 seconds and for different excitation levels. For the 1-beam model assembly used in applications, the row is studied over the total test time, i.e twenty seconds, which covers the average duration of the core seismic behaviour studies, and for a peak exciting acceleration value at 0.4 g, which corresponds to the SSE level of the reference spectrum

  19. Scale modeling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to seismic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, R.C.

    1983-01-01

    Reinforced concrete, Category I structures are so large that the possibility of seismicly testing the prototype structures under controlled conditions is essentially nonexistent. However, experimental data, from which important structural properties can be determined and existing and new methods of seismic analysis benchmarked, are badly needed. As a result, seismic experiments on scaled models are of considerable interest. In this paper, the scaling laws are developed in some detail so that assumptions and choices based on judgement can be clearly recognized and their effects discussed. The scaling laws developed are then used to design a reinforced concrete model of a Category I structure. Finally, how scaling is effected by various types of damping (viscous, structural, and Coulomb) is discussed

  20. Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wen Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944 exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault are short.

  1. Summary report of seismic PSA of BWR model plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    This report presents a seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) methodology developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) for evaluating risks of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the results from an application of the methodology to a BWR plant in Japan, which is termed Model Plant'. The seismic PSA procedures developed at JAERI are to evaluate core damage frequency (CDF) and have the following four steps: (1) evaluation of seismic hazard, (2) evaluation of realistic response, (3) evaluation of component capacities and failure probabilities, and (4) evaluation of conditional probability of system failure and CDF. Although these procedures are based on the methodologies established and used in the United States, they include several unique features: (1) seismic hazard analysis is performed with use of available knowledge and database on seismological conditions in Japan; (2) response evaluation is performed with a response factor method which is cost effective and associated uncertainties can be reduced with use of modern methods of design calculations; (3) capacity evaluation is performed with use of test results available in Japan in combination with design information and generic capacity data in the U.S.A.; (4) systems reliability analysis, performed with use of the computer code SECOM-2 developed at JAERI, includes identification of dominant accident sequences, importance analysis of components and systems as well as the CDF evaluation with consideration of the effect of correlation of failures by a newly developed method based on the Monte Carlo method. The effect of correlation has been recognized as an important issue in seismic PSAs. The procedures was used to perform a seismic PSA of a 1100 MWe BWR plant. Results are shown as well as the insights derived and future research needs identified in this seismic PSA. (J.P.N.)

  2. A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; Jovicic, Goran

    2003-01-01

    The passenger travel model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice nested logit model in which the sub-models - i.e. generation, distribution and mode choice models - are connected via measure of accessibility. The model includes in its structure a large set of explanatory variables at all three...... aims to provide a detailed description of the model, which can be used as a guide to the future development of similar models. Also, an application of the model in a study of road pricing in denmark is described. This gives the reader an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled as well...

  3. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  4. Numerical modeling of the 2017 active seismic infrasound balloon experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brissaud, Q.; Komjathy, A.; Garcia, R.; Cutts, J. A.; Pauken, M.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Mimoun, D.; Jackson, J. M.; Lai, V. H.; Kedar, S.; Levillain, E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed a numerical tool to propagate acoustic and gravity waves in a coupled solid-fluid medium with topography. It is a hybrid method between a continuous Galerkin and a discontinuous Galerkin method that accounts for non-linear atmospheric waves, visco-elastic waves and topography. We apply this method to a recent experiment that took place in the Nevada desert to study acoustic waves from seismic events. This experiment, developed by JPL and its partners, wants to demonstrate the viability of a new approach to probe seismic-induced acoustic waves from a balloon platform. To the best of our knowledge, this could be the only way, for planetary missions, to perform tomography when one faces challenging surface conditions, with high pressure and temperature (e.g. Venus), and thus when it is impossible to use conventional electronics routinely employed on Earth. To fully demonstrate the effectiveness of such a technique one should also be able to reconstruct the observed signals from numerical modeling. To model the seismic hammer experiment and the subsequent acoustic wave propagation, we rely on a subsurface seismic model constructed from the seismometers measurements during the 2017 Nevada experiment and an atmospheric model built from meteorological data. The source is considered as a Gaussian point source located at the surface. Comparison between the numerical modeling and the experimental data could help future mission designs and provide great insights into the planet's interior structure.

  5. Monte Carlo Analysis of Reservoir Models Using Seismic Data and Geostatistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunino, A.; Mosegaard, K.; Lange, K.; Melnikova, Y.; Hansen, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    We present a study on the analysis of petroleum reservoir models consistent with seismic data and geostatistical constraints performed on a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for structure and rock bulk properties of the target reservoir zone. To infer the rock facies, porosity and oil saturation seismology alone is not sufficient but a rock physics model must be taken into account, which links the unknown properties to the elastic parameters. We then combine a rock physics model with a simple convolutional approach for seismic waves to invert the "measured" seismograms. To solve this inverse problem, we employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, because it offers the possibility to handle non-linearity, complex and multi-step forward models and provides realistic estimates of uncertainties. However, for large data sets the MCMC method may be impractical because of a very high computational demand. To face this challenge one strategy is to feed the algorithm with realistic models, hence relying on proper prior information. To address this problem, we utilize an algorithm drawn from geostatistics to generate geologically plausible models which represent samples of the prior distribution. The geostatistical algorithm learns the multiple-point statistics from prototype models (in the form of training images), then generates thousands of different models which are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis sampler. To further reduce the computation time we parallelize the software and run it on multi-core machines. The solution of the inverse problem is then represented by a collection of reservoir models in terms of facies, porosity and oil saturation, which constitute samples of the posterior distribution. We are finally able to produce probability maps of the properties we are interested in by performing statistical analysis on the collection of solutions.

  6. Modeling the Excitation of Seismic Waves by the Joplin Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valovcin, Anne; Tanimoto, Toshiro

    2017-10-01

    Tornadoes generate seismic signals when they contact the ground. Here we examine the signals excited by the Joplin tornado, which passed within 2 km of a station in the Earthscope Transportable Array. We model the tornado-generated vertical seismic signal at low frequencies (0.01-0.03 Hz) and solve for the strength of the seismic source. The resulting source amplitude is largest when the tornado was reported to be strongest (EF 4-5), and the amplitude is smallest when the tornado was weak (EF 0-2). A further understanding of the relationship between source amplitude and tornado intensity could open up new ways to study tornadoes from the ground.

  7. Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)

  8. Modeling of seismic data in the downward continuation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, C.C.; de Hoop, Maarten V.

    2005-01-01

    Seismic data are commonly modeled by a high-frequency single scattering approximation. This amounts to a linearization in the medium coefficient about a smooth background. The discontinuities are contained in the medium perturbation. The high-frequency part of the wavefield in the background medium

  9. Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

    2014-01-01

    Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

  10. Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

  11. Seismic capacity of a reinforced concrete frame structure without seismic detailing and limited ductility seismic design in moderate seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. K.; Kim, I. H.

    1999-01-01

    A four-story reinforced concrete frame building model is designed for the gravity loads only. Static nonlinear pushover analyses are performed in two orthogonal horizontal directions. The overall capacity curves are converted into ADRS spectra and compared with demand spectra. At several points the deformed shape, moment and shear distribution are calculated. Based on these results limited ductility seismic design concept is proposed as an alternative seismic design approach in moderate seismicity resign

  12. Toe-of-slope of a Cretaceous carbonate platform in outcrop, seismic model and offshore seismic data (Apulia, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracco Gartner, Guido; Morsilli, Michele; Schlager, Wolfgang; Bosellini, Alfonso

    Synthetic seismic models of outcrops in the Early Cretaceous slope of a carbonate platform on the Gargano Promontory (southern Italy) were compared to an offshore seismic section south of the Promontory. Outcrops of the same age on the promontory have the same sequence stratigraphic characteristics as their offshore equivalent, and are the only areas where the transition from platform to basin of Early Cretaceous is exposed on land. Two adjacent outcrop areas were combined into one seismic-scale lithologic model with the aid of photo mosaics, measured sections, and biostratigraphic data. Velocity, density, and porosity measurements on spot samples were used to construct the impedance model. Seismic models were generated by vertical incidence and finite difference programs. The results indicate that the reflections in the seismic model are controlled by the impedance contrast between low porous intervals rich in debris from the platform and highly porous intervals of pelagic lime mudstone, nearly devoid of debris. Finite difference seismic display showed best resemblance with the real seismic data, especially by mapping a drowning unconformity.

  13. The job demands-resources model of burnout

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demerouti, E.; Nachreiner, F.; Bakker, A.B.; Schaufeli, W.B.

    2001-01-01

    The job demands - resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources, that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working

  14. Core seismic behaviour: linear and non-linear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, M.; Van Dorsselaere, M.; Gauvain, M.; Jenapierre-Gantenbein, M.

    1981-08-01

    The usual methodology for the core seismic behaviour analysis leads to a double complementary approach: to define a core model to be included in the reactor-block seismic response analysis, simple enough but representative of basic movements (diagrid or slab), to define a finer core model, with basic data issued from the first model. This paper presents the history of the different models of both kinds. The inert mass model (IMM) yielded a first rough diagrid movement. The direct linear model (DLM), without shocks and with sodium as an added mass, let to two different ones: DLM 1 with independent movements of the fuel and radial blanket subassemblies, and DLM 2 with a core combined movement. The non-linear (NLM) ''CORALIE'' uses the same basic modelization (Finite Element Beams) but accounts for shocks. It studies the response of a diameter on flats and takes into account the fluid coupling and the wrapper tube flexibility at the pad level. Damping consists of one modal part of 2% and one part due to shocks. Finally, ''CORALIE'' yields the time-history of the displacements and efforts on the supports, but damping (probably greater than 2%) and fluid-structures interaction are still to be precised. The validation experiments were performed on a RAPSODIE core mock-up on scale 1, in similitude of 1/3 as to SPX 1. The equivalent linear model (ELM) was developed for the SPX 1 reactor-block response analysis and a specified seismic level (SB or SM). It is composed of several oscillators fixed to the diagrid and yields the same maximum displacements and efforts than the NLM. The SPX 1 core seismic analysis with a diagrid input spectrum which corresponds to a 0,1 g group acceleration, has been carried out with these models: some aspects of these calculations are presented here

  15. MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2013-10-01

    How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

  16. Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

    2014-07-01

    A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

  17. An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan QIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

  18. Flexibility and leadership advantages in a model with uncertain demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira, Fernanda A.; Ferreira, Flávio; Pinto, Alberto A.

    2007-01-01

    We consider a differentiated Stackelberg model with demand uncertainty only for the first mover. We study the advantages of flexibility over leadership as the degree of the differentiation of the goods changes.

  19. A high-resolution ambient seismic noise model for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraft, Toni

    2014-05-01

    measurement precision (i.e. earthquake location), while considering this extremely complex boundary condition. To solve this problem I have developed a high-resolution ambient seismic noise model for Europe. The model is based on land-use data derived from satellite imagery by the EU-project CORINE in a resolution of 100x100m. The the CORINE data consists of several land-use classes, which, besides others, contain: industrial areas, mines, urban fabric, agricultural areas, permanent corps, forests and open spaces. Additionally, open GIS data for highways, and major and minor roads and railway lines were included from the OpenStreetMap project (www.openstreetmap.org). This data was divided into three classes that represent good, intermediate and bad ambient conditions of the corresponding land-use class based on expert judgment. To account for noise propagation away from its source a smoothing operator was applied to individual land-use noise-fields. Finally, the noise-fields were stacked to obtain an European map of ambient noise conditions. A calibration of this map with data of existing seismic stations Europe allowed me to estimate the expected noise level in actual ground motion units for the three ambient noise condition classes of the map. The result is a high-resolution ambient seismic noise map, that allows the network designer to make educated predictions on the expected noise level for arbitrary location in Europe. The ambient noise model was successfully tested in several network optimization projects in Switzerland and surrounding countries and will hopefully be a valuable contribution to improving the data quality of microseismic monitoring networks in Europe.

  20. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

    OpenAIRE

    Song, H; Li, G

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

  1. Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more effi...

  2. Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.

  3. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  4. Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisol Valencia-Cárdenas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti

  5. Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves

  6. A multi-scale adaptive model of residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzan, Farbod; Jafari, Mohsen A.; Gong, Jie; Farzan, Farnaz; Stryker, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We extend an energy demand model to investigate changes in behavioral and usage patterns. • The model is capable of analyzing why demand behaves the way it does. • The model empowers decision makers to investigate DSM strategies and effectiveness. • The model provides means to measure the effect of energy prices on daily profile. • The model considers the coupling effects of adopting multiple new technologies. - Abstract: In this paper, we extend a previously developed bottom-up energy demand model such that the model can be used to determine changes in behavioral and energy usage patterns of a community when: (i) new load patterns from Plug-in Electrical Vehicles (PEV) or other devices are introduced; (ii) new technologies and smart devices are used within premises; and (iii) new Demand Side Management (DSM) strategies, such as price responsive demand are implemented. Unlike time series forecasting methods that solely rely on historical data, the model only uses a minimal amount of data at the atomic level for its basic constructs. These basic constructs can be integrated into a household unit or a community model using rules and connectors that are, in principle, flexible and can be altered according to the type of questions that need to be answered. Furthermore, the embedded dynamics of the model works on the basis of: (i) Markovian stochastic model for simulating human activities, (ii) Bayesian and logistic technology adoption models, and (iii) optimization, and rule-based models to respond to price signals without compromising users’ comfort. The proposed model is not intended to replace traditional forecasting models. Instead it provides an analytical framework that can be used at the design stage of new products and communities to evaluate design alternatives. The framework can also be used to answer questions such as why demand behaves the way it does by examining demands at different scales and by playing What-If games. These

  7. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  8. Acoustic/seismic signal propagation and sensor performance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, D. Keith; Marlin, David H.; Mackay, Sean

    2007-04-01

    Performance, optimal employment, and interpretation of data from acoustic and seismic sensors depend strongly and in complex ways on the environment in which they operate. Software tools for guiding non-expert users of acoustic and seismic sensors are therefore much needed. However, such tools require that many individual components be constructed and correctly connected together. These components include the source signature and directionality, representation of the atmospheric and terrain environment, calculation of the signal propagation, characterization of the sensor response, and mimicking of the data processing at the sensor. Selection of an appropriate signal propagation model is particularly important, as there are significant trade-offs between output fidelity and computation speed. Attenuation of signal energy, random fading, and (for array systems) variations in wavefront angle-of-arrival should all be considered. Characterization of the complex operational environment is often the weak link in sensor modeling: important issues for acoustic and seismic modeling activities include the temporal/spatial resolution of the atmospheric data, knowledge of the surface and subsurface terrain properties, and representation of ambient background noise and vibrations. Design of software tools that address these challenges is illustrated with two examples: a detailed target-to-sensor calculation application called the Sensor Performance Evaluator for Battlefield Environments (SPEBE) and a GIS-embedded approach called Battlefield Terrain Reasoning and Awareness (BTRA).

  9. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  10. Improving fault image by determination of optimum seismic survey parameters using ray-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffarzadeh, Sadegh; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Hasani, Hossein; Talebi, Mohammad Ali

    2018-06-01

    In complex structures such as faults, salt domes and reefs, specifying the survey parameters is more challenging and critical owing to the complicated wave field behavior involved in such structures. In the petroleum industry, detecting faults has become crucial for reservoir potential where faults can act as traps for hydrocarbon. In this regard, seismic survey modeling is employed to construct a model close to the real structure, and obtain very realistic synthetic seismic data. Seismic modeling software, the velocity model and parameters pre-determined by conventional methods enable a seismic survey designer to run a shot-by-shot virtual survey operation. A reliable velocity model of structures can be constructed by integrating the 2D seismic data, geological reports and the well information. The effects of various survey designs can be investigated by the analysis of illumination maps and flower plots. Also, seismic processing of the synthetic data output can describe the target image using different survey parameters. Therefore, seismic modeling is one of the most economical ways to establish and test the optimum acquisition parameters to obtain the best image when dealing with complex geological structures. The primary objective of this study is to design a proper 3D seismic survey orientation to achieve fault zone structures through ray-tracing seismic modeling. The results prove that a seismic survey designer can enhance the image of fault planes in a seismic section by utilizing the proposed modeling and processing approach.

  11. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  12. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  13. New Frontiers on Seismic Modeling of Masonry Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore Caddemi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available An accurate evaluation of the non-linear behavior of masonry structural elements in existing buildings still represents a complex issue that rigorously requires non-linear finite element strategies difficult to apply to real large structures. Nevertheless, for the static and seismic assessment of existing structures, involving the contribution of masonry materials, engineers need reliable and efficient numerical tools, whose complexity and computational demand should be suitable for practical purposes. For these reasons, the formulation and the validation of simplified numerical strategies represent a very important issue in masonry computational research. In this paper, an innovative macroelement approach, developed by the authors in the last decade, is presented. The proposed macroelement formulation is based on different, plane and spatial, macroelements for the simulation of both the in-plane and out-of-plane behavior of masonry structures also in presence of masonry elements with curved geometry. The mechanical response of the adopted macroelement is governed by non-linear zero-thickness interfaces, whose calibration follows a straightforward fiber discretization, and the non-linear internal shear deformability is ruled by equivalence with a corresponding geometrically consistent homogenized medium. The approach can be considered as “parsimonious” since the kinematics of the adopted elements is controlled by very few degrees of freedom, if compared to a corresponding discretization performed by using non-linear finite element method strategies. This innovative discrete element strategy has been implemented in two user-oriented software codes 3DMacro (Caliò et al., 2012b and HiStrA (Historical Structures Analysis (Caliò et al., 2015, which simplify the modeling of buildings and historical structures by means of several wizard generation tools and input/output facilities. The proposed approach, that represents a powerful tool for the

  14. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  15. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  16. Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Z.; Romanelli, F.; Chen, Y. T.; Panza, G. F.

    Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake.

  17. Realistic modeling of seismic wave ground motion in Beijing City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Z.; Chen, Y.T.; Romanelli, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-05-01

    Advanced algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of the observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic 3-component seismograms have been computed in the Xiji area and in Beijing town. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible of the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone (Xiji area) associated to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and with the records in Beijing town, associated to the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake. (author)

  18. A hierarchical stress release model for synthetic seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark

    1997-06-01

    We construct a stochastic dynamic model for synthetic seismicity involving stochastic stress input, release, and transfer in an environment of heterogeneous strength and interacting segments. The model is not fault-specific, having a number of adjustable parameters with physical interpretation, namely, stress relaxation, stress transfer, stress dissipation, segment structure, strength, and strength heterogeneity, which affect the seismicity in various ways. Local parameters are chosen to be consistent with large historical events, other parameters to reproduce bulk seismicity statistics for the fault as a whole. The one-dimensional fault is divided into a number of segments, each comprising a varying number of nodes. Stress input occurs at each node in a simple random process, representing the slow buildup due to tectonic plate movements. Events are initiated, subject to a stochastic hazard function, when the stress on a node exceeds the local strength. An event begins with the transfer of excess stress to neighboring nodes, which may in turn transfer their excess stress to the next neighbor. If the event grows to include the entire segment, then most of the stress on the segment is transferred to neighboring segments (or dissipated) in a characteristic event. These large events may themselves spread to other segments. We use the Middle America Trench to demonstrate that this model, using simple stochastic stress input and triggering mechanisms, can produce behavior consistent with the historical record over five units of magnitude. We also investigate the effects of perturbing various parameters in order to show how the model might be tailored to a specific fault structure. The strength of the model lies in this ability to reproduce the behavior of a general linear fault system through the choice of a relatively small number of parameters. It remains to develop a procedure for estimating the internal state of the model from the historical observations in order to

  19. The SCEC Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) Software Framework for Distributing and Querying Seismic Velocity Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maechling, P. J.; Taborda, R.; Callaghan, S.; Shaw, J. H.; Plesch, A.; Olsen, K. B.; Jordan, T. H.; Goulet, C. A.

    2017-12-01

    Crustal seismic velocity models and datasets play a key role in regional three-dimensional numerical earthquake ground-motion simulation, full waveform tomography, modern physics-based probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis, as well as in other related fields including geophysics, seismology, and earthquake engineering. The standard material properties provided by a seismic velocity model are P- and S-wave velocities and density for any arbitrary point within the geographic volume for which the model is defined. Many seismic velocity models and datasets are constructed by synthesizing information from multiple sources and the resulting models are delivered to users in multiple file formats, such as text files, binary files, HDF-5 files, structured and unstructured grids, and through computer applications that allow for interactive querying of material properties. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed the Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) software framework to facilitate the registration and distribution of existing and future seismic velocity models to the SCEC community. The UCVM software framework is designed to provide a standard query interface to multiple, alternative velocity models, even if the underlying velocity models are defined in different formats or use different geographic projections. The UCVM framework provides a comprehensive set of open-source tools for querying seismic velocity model properties, combining regional 3D models and 1D background models, visualizing 3D models, and generating computational models in the form of regular grids or unstructured meshes that can be used as inputs for ground-motion simulations. The UCVM framework helps researchers compare seismic velocity models and build equivalent simulation meshes from alternative velocity models. These capabilities enable researchers to evaluate the impact of alternative velocity models in ground-motion simulations and seismic hazard analysis applications

  20. An inventory model with dependent product demands and returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiesmüller, G.P.; Laan, van der E.P.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper an inventory model for a single reusable product is investigated, in which the random returns depend explicitly on the demand stream. Further, the model distinguishes itself from most other research in this field by considering leadtimes and a finite planning horizon. We show that

  1. Using Supply, Demand, and the Cournot Model to Understand Corruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Marc D.

    2007-01-01

    The author combines the supply and demand model of taxes with a Cournot model of bribe takers to develop a simple and useful framework for understanding the effect of corruption on economic activity. There are many examples of corruption in both developed and developing countries. Because corruption decreases the level of economic activity and…

  2. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.

    2007-01-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs

  3. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.

  4. Towards longitudinal activity-based models of travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Lo, H.P.; Leung, Stephen C.H.; Tan, Susanna M.L.

    2008-01-01

    Existing activity-based models of travel demand consider a day as the time unit of observation and predict activity patterns of inhviduals for a typical or average day. In this study we argue that the use of a time span of one day severely limits the ability of the models to predict responsive

  5. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  6. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Demerouti (Eva); A.B. Bakke (Arnold B.)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working

  7. A modified symplectic PRK scheme for seismic wave modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shaolin; Yang, Dinghui; Ma, Jian

    2017-02-01

    A new scheme for the temporal discretization of the seismic wave equation is constructed based on symplectic geometric theory and a modified strategy. The ordinary differential equation in terms of time, which is obtained after spatial discretization via the spectral-element method, is transformed into a Hamiltonian system. A symplectic partitioned Runge-Kutta (PRK) scheme is used to solve the Hamiltonian system. A term related to the multiplication of the spatial discretization operator with the seismic wave velocity vector is added into the symplectic PRK scheme to create a modified symplectic PRK scheme. The symplectic coefficients of the new scheme are determined via Taylor series expansion. The positive coefficients of the scheme indicate that its long-term computational capability is more powerful than that of conventional symplectic schemes. An exhaustive theoretical analysis reveals that the new scheme is highly stable and has low numerical dispersion. The results of three numerical experiments demonstrate the high efficiency of this method for seismic wave modeling.

  8. Coal demand prediction based on a support vector machine model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia, Cun-liang; Wu, Hai-shan; Gong, Dun-wei [China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electronic Engineering

    2007-01-15

    A forecasting model for coal demand of China using a support vector regression was constructed. With the selected embedding dimension, the output vectors and input vectors were constructed based on the coal demand of China from 1980 to 2002. After compared with lineal kernel and Sigmoid kernel, a radial basis function(RBF) was adopted as the kernel function. By analyzing the relationship between the error margin of prediction and the model parameters, the proper parameters were chosen. The support vector machines (SVM) model with multi-input and single output was proposed. Compared the predictor based on RBF neural networks with test datasets, the results show that the SVM predictor has higher precision and greater generalization ability. In the end, the coal demand from 2003 to 2006 is accurately forecasted. l0 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demand modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Yetis Sazi; Ceylan, Halim

    2006-01-01

    The paper illustrates an artificial neural network (ANN) approach based on supervised neural networks for the transport energy demand forecasting using socio-economic and transport related indicators. The ANN transport energy demand model is developed. The actual forecast is obtained using a feed forward neural network, trained with back propagation algorithm. In order to investigate the influence of socio-economic indicators on the transport energy demand, the ANN is analyzed based on gross national product (GNP), population and the total annual average veh-km along with historical energy data available from 1970 to 2001. Comparing model predictions with energy data in testing period performs the model validation. The projections are made with two scenarios. It is obtained that the ANN reflects the fluctuation in historical data for both dependent and independent variables. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the transport energy-forecasting problem

  10. Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

  11. Analysis of a Residential Building Energy Consumption Demand Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to estimate the energy consumption demand of residential buildings, this paper first discusses the status and shortcomings of current domestic energy consumption models. Then it proposes and develops a residential building energy consumption demand model based on a back propagation (BP neural network model. After that, taking residential buildings in Chongqing (P.R. China as an example, 16 energy consumption indicators are introduced as characteristics of the residential buildings in Chongqing. The index system of the BP neutral network prediction model is established and the multi-factorial BP neural network prediction model of Chongqing residential building energy consumption is developed using the Cshap language, based on the SQL server 2005 platform. The results obtained by applying the model in Chongqing are in good agreement with actual ones. In addition, the model provides corresponding approximate data by taking into account the potential energy structure adjustments and relevant energy policy regulations.

  12. Combined Gravimetric-Seismic Crustal Model for Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranov, Alexey; Tenzer, Robert; Bagherbandi, Mohammad

    2018-01-01

    The latest seismic data and improved information about the subglacial bedrock relief are used in this study to estimate the sediment and crustal thickness under the Antarctic continent. Since large parts of Antarctica are not yet covered by seismic surveys, the gravity and crustal structure models are used to interpolate the Moho information where seismic data are missing. The gravity information is also extended offshore to detect the Moho under continental margins and neighboring oceanic crust. The processing strategy involves the solution to the Vening Meinesz-Moritz's inverse problem of isostasy constrained on seismic data. A comparison of our new results with existing studies indicates a substantial improvement in the sediment and crustal models. The seismic data analysis shows significant sediment accumulations in Antarctica, with broad sedimentary basins. According to our result, the maximum sediment thickness in Antarctica is about 15 km under Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. The Moho relief closely resembles major geological and tectonic features. A rather thick continental crust of East Antarctic Craton is separated from a complex geological/tectonic structure of West Antarctica by the Transantarctic Mountains. The average Moho depth of 34.1 km under the Antarctic continent slightly differs from previous estimates. A maximum Moho deepening of 58.2 km under the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica confirmed the presence of deep and compact orogenic roots. Another large Moho depth in East Antarctica is detected under Dronning Maud Land with two orogenic roots under Wohlthat Massif (48-50 km) and the Kottas Mountains (48-50 km) that are separated by a relatively thin crust along Jutulstraumen Rift. The Moho depth under central parts of the Transantarctic Mountains reaches 46 km. The maximum Moho deepening (34-38 km) in West Antarctica is under the Antarctic Peninsula. The Moho depth minima in East Antarctica are found under the Lambert Trench (24

  13. Accounting for Water Insecurity in Modeling Domestic Water Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaitsis, S. E.; Huber-lee, A. T.; Vogel, R. M.; Naumova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Water demand management uses price elasticity estimates to predict consumer demand in relation to water pricing changes, but studies have shown that many additional factors effect water consumption. Development scholars document the need for water security, however, much of the water security literature focuses on broad policies which can influence water demand. Previous domestic water demand studies have not considered how water security can affect a population's consumption behavior. This study is the first to model the influence of water insecurity on water demand. A subjective indicator scale measuring water insecurity among consumers in the Palestinian West Bank is developed and included as a variable to explore how perceptions of control, or lack thereof, impact consumption behavior and resulting estimates of price elasticity. A multivariate regression model demonstrates the significance of a water insecurity variable for data sets encompassing disparate water access. When accounting for insecurity, the R-squaed value improves and the marginal price a household is willing to pay becomes a significant predictor for the household quantity consumption. The model denotes that, with all other variables held equal, a household will buy more water when the users are more water insecure. Though the reasons behind this trend require further study, the findings suggest broad policy implications by demonstrating that water distribution practices in scarcity conditions can promote consumer welfare and efficient water use.

  14. The development of demand elasticity model for demand response in the retail market environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty

  15. Source characterization and dynamic fault modeling of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, S. K. Y.; Young, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years there are increasing concerns worldwide that industrial activities in the sub-surface can cause or trigger damaging earthquakes. In order to effectively mitigate the damaging effects of induced seismicity, the key is to better understand the source physics of induced earthquakes, which still remain elusive at present. Furthermore, an improved understanding of induced earthquake physics is pivotal to assess large-magnitude earthquake triggering. A better quantification of the possible causes of induced earthquakes can be achieved through numerical simulations. The fault model used in this study is governed by the empirically-derived rate-and-state friction laws, featuring a velocity-weakening (VW) patch embedded into a large velocity-strengthening (VS) region. Outside of that, the fault is slipping at the background loading rate. The model is fully dynamic, with all wave effects resolved, and is able to resolve spontaneous long-term slip history on a fault segment at all stages of seismic cycles. An earlier study using this model has established that aseismic slip plays a major role in the triggering of small repeating earthquakes. This study presents a series of cases with earthquakes occurring on faults with different fault frictional properties and fluid-induced stress perturbations. The effects to both the overall seismicity rate and fault slip behavior are investigated, and the causal relationship between the pre-slip pattern prior to the event and the induced source characteristics is discussed. Based on simulation results, the subsequent step is to select specific cases for laboratory experiments which allow well controlled variables and fault parameters. Ultimately, the aim is to provide better constraints on important parameters for induced earthquakes based on numerical modeling and laboratory data, and hence to contribute to a physics-based induced earthquake hazard assessment.

  16. Seismic assessment and performance of nonstructural components affected by structural modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hur, Jieun; Althoff, Eric; Sezen, Halil; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc [Ohio State University, Columbus (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) requires a large number of simulations to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structural and nonstructural components in nuclear power plants. The effect of structural modeling and analysis assumptions on dynamic analysis of 3D and simplified 2D stick models of auxiliary buildings and the attached nonstructural components is investigated. Dynamic characteristics and seismic performance of building models are also evaluated, as well as the computational accuracy of the models. The presented results provide a better understanding of the dynamic behavior and seismic performance of auxiliary buildings. The results also help to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated with modeling and analysis of simplified numerical models of structural and nonstructural components subjected to seismic shaking on the predicted seismic failure probabilities of these systems.

  17. The job demands-resources model of burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demerouti, E; Bakker, A B; Nachreiner, F; Schaufeli, W B

    2001-06-01

    The job demands-resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources. that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working conditions provided strong evidence for the JD-R model: Job demands are primarily related to the exhaustion component of burnout, whereas (lack of) job resources are primarily related to disengagement. Highly similar patterns were observed in each of 3 occupational groups: human services, industry, and transport (total N = 374). In addition, results confirmed the 2-factor structure (exhaustion and disengagement) of a new burnout instrument--the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory--and suggested that this structure is essentially invariant across occupational groups.

  18. A disaggregate model to predict the intercity travel demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, S.

    1988-01-01

    This study was directed towards developing disaggregate models to predict the intercity travel demand in Canada. A conceptual framework for the intercity travel behavior was proposed; under this framework, a nested multinomial model structure that combined mode choice and trip generation was developed. The CTS (Canadian Travel Survey) data base was used for testing the structure and to determine the viability of using this data base for intercity travel-demand prediction. Mode-choice and trip-generation models were calibrated for four modes (auto, bus, rail and air) for both business and non-business trips. The models were linked through the inclusive value variable, also referred to as the long sum of the denominator in the literature. Results of the study indicated that the structure used in this study could be applied for intercity travel-demand modeling. However, some limitations of the data base were identified. It is believed that, with some modifications, the CTS data could be used for predicting intercity travel demand. Future research can identify the factors affecting intercity travel behavior, which will facilitate collection of useful data for intercity travel prediction and policy analysis.

  19. Seismic Full Waveform Modeling & Imaging in Attenuating Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Peng

    Seismic attenuation strongly affects seismic waveforms by amplitude loss and velocity dispersion. Without proper inclusion of Q parameters, errors can be introduced for seismic full waveform modeling and imaging. Three different (Carcione's, Robertsson's, and the generalized Robertsson's) isotropic viscoelastic wave equations based on the generalized standard linear solid (GSLS) are evaluated. The second-order displacement equations are derived, and used to demonstrate that, with the same stress relaxation times, these viscoelastic formulations are equivalent. By introducing separate memory variables for P and S relaxation functions, Robertsson's formulation is generalized to allow different P and S wave stress relaxation times, which improves the physical consistency of the Qp and Qs modelled in the seismograms.The three formulations have comparable computational cost. 3D seismic finite-difference forward modeling is applied to anisotropic viscoelastic media. The viscoelastic T-matrix (a dynamic effective medium theory) relates frequency-dependent anisotropic attenuation and velocity to reservoir properties in fractured HTI media, based on the meso-scale fluid flow attenuation mechanism. The seismic signatures resulting from changing viscoelastic reservoir properties are easily visible. Analysis of 3D viscoelastic seismograms suggests that anisotropic attenuation is a potential tool for reservoir characterization. To compensate the Q effects during reverse-time migration (RTM) in viscoacoustic and viscoelastic media, amplitudes need to be compensated during wave propagation; the propagation velocity of the Q-compensated wavefield needs to be the same as in the attenuating wavefield, to restore the phase information. Both amplitude and phase can be compensated when the velocity dispersion and the amplitude loss are decoupled. For wave equations based on the GSLS, because Q effects are coupled in the memory variables, Q-compensated wavefield propagates faster than

  20. Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anable, Jillian; Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Eyre, Nick

    2012-01-01

    Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

  1. Numerical modeling of intraplate seismicity with a deformable loading plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, B. D.; Capitanio, F. A.

    2017-12-01

    We use finite element modeling to investigate on the stress loading-unloading cycles and earthquakes occurrence in the plate interiors, resulting from the interactions of tectonic plates along their boundary. We model a visco-elasto-plastic plate embedding a single or multiple faults, while the tectonic stress is applied along the plate boundary by an external loading visco-elastic plate, reproducing the tectonic setting of two interacting lithospheres. Because the two plates deform viscously, the timescale of stress accumulation and release on the faults is self-consistently determined, from the boundary to the interiors, and seismic recurrence is an emerging feature. This approach overcomes the constraints on recurrence period imposed by stress (stress-drop) and velocity boundary conditions, while here it is unconstrained. We illustrate emerging macroscopic characteristics of this system, showing that the seismic recurrence period τ becomes shorter as Γ and Θ decreases, where Γ = ηI/ηL the viscosity ratio of the viscosities of the internal fault-embedded to external loading plates, respectively, and Θ = σY/σL the stress ratio of the elastic limit of the fault to far-field loading stress. When the system embeds multiple, randomly distributed faults, stress transfer results in recurrence period deviations, however the time-averaged recurrence period of each fault show the same dependence on Γ and Θ, illustrating a characteristic collective behavior. The control of these parameters prevails even when initial pre-stress was randomly assigned in terms of the spatial arrangement and orientation on the internal plate, mimicking local fluctuations. Our study shows the relevance of macroscopic rheological properties of tectonic plates on the earthquake occurrence in plate interiors, as opposed to local factors, proposing a viable model for the seismic behavior of continent interiors in the context of large-scale, long-term deformation of interacting tectonic

  2. Modeling storage and demand management in power distribution grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Grahical abstract: The model informs an optimal investment sizing decision as regards specific 'smart grid' applications such as storage facilities and meters enabling load control. Results indicate that central storage facilities are a more promising option for generation cost reductions as compared to demand management. Highlights: → Stochastic versus deterministic model increases investment efficiency up to 5%. → Deterministic model under-estimates value of load control and storage. → Battery storage is beneficial at investment cost below 850 EUR/MW h. → Demand management equipment is not beneficial at cost beyond 200 EUR. → The stylized 10 kV grid constitutes no shortage factor. -- Abstract: Storage devices and demand control may constitute beneficial tools to optimize electricity generation with a large share of intermittent resources through inter-temporal substitution of load. This paper quantifies the related cost reductions in a simulation model of a simplified stylized medium-voltage grid (10 kV) under uncertain demand and wind output. Benders Decomposition Method is applied to create a two-stage stochastic optimization program. The model informs an optimal investment sizing decision as regards specific 'smart' applications such as storage facilities and meters enabling load control. Model results indicate that central storage facilities are a more promising option for generation cost reductions as compared to demand management. Grid extensions are not appropriate in any of the scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is applied with respect to the market penetration of uncoordinated Plug-In Electric Vehicles which are found to strongly encourage investment into load control equipment for 'smart' charging and slightly improve the case for central storage devices.

  3. Modified Normal Demand Distributions in (R,S)-Inventory Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strijbosch, L.W.G.; Moors, J.J.A.

    2003-01-01

    To model demand, the normal distribution is by far the most popular; the disadvantage that it takes negative values is taken for granted.This paper proposes two modi.cations of the normal distribution, both taking non-negative values only.Safety factors and order-up-to-levels for the familiar (R,

  4. Engaging leadership in the job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaufeli, Wilmar B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073779563

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to integrate leadership into the job demands-resources (JD-R) model. Based on self-determination theory, it was argued that engaging leaders who inspire, strengthen, and connect their followers would reduce employee’s levels of burnout and increase their levels

  5. Work orientations in the job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demerouti, E.; Bakker, A.B.; Fried, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – This study aims to examine the role of instrumental vs intrinsic work orientations in the job demands-resources (JD-R) model. Design/methodology – Using a sample of 123 employees, the authors investigated longitudinally whether an instrumental work orientation moderates the motivational

  6. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  7. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  8. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

  9. On the (R,s,Q) Inventory Model when Demand is Modelled as a Compound Process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.B.S.L.P.; Heuts, R.M.J.; de Kok, T.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we present an approximation method to compute the reorder point s in a (R; s; Q) inventory model with a service level restriction, where demand is modelled as a compound Bernoulli process, that is, with a xed probability there is positive demand during a time unit, otherwise demand is

  10. Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor

    2008-07-15

    Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

  11. Demand Management Based on Model Predictive Control Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser A. Davizón

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Demand management (DM is the process that helps companies to sell the right product to the right customer, at the right time, and for the right price. Therefore the challenge for any company is to determine how much to sell, at what price, and to which market segment while maximizing its profits. DM also helps managers efficiently allocate undifferentiated units of capacity to the available demand with the goal of maximizing revenue. This paper introduces control system approach to demand management with dynamic pricing (DP using the model predictive control (MPC technique. In addition, we present a proper dynamical system analogy based on active suspension and a stability analysis is provided via the Lyapunov direct method.

  12. Two-Stage Electricity Demand Modeling Using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Gajowniczek

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand peaks in the power system, forecasts are inaccurate and prone to high numbers of errors. In this paper, our contributions comprise a proposed data-mining scheme for demand modeling through peak detection, as well as the use of this information to feed the forecasting system. For this purpose, we have taken a different approach from that of time series forecasting, representing it as a two-stage pattern recognition problem. We have developed a peak classification model followed by a forecasting model to estimate an aggregated demand volume. We have utilized a set of machine learning algorithms to benefit from both accurate detection of the peaks and precise forecasts, as applied to the Polish power system. The key finding is that the algorithms can detect 96.3% of electricity peaks (load value equal to or above the 99th percentile of the load distribution and deliver accurate forecasts, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 3.10% and resistant mean absolute percentage error (r-MAPE of 2.70% for the 24 h forecasting horizon.

  13. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Demerouti, Eva; Bakke, Arnold B.

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studie...

  14. Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O Broin, Eoin

    2012-11-01

    In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

  15. Physical Model Method for Seismic Study of Concrete Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Roşca

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the dynamic behaviour of concrete dams by means of the physical model method is very useful to understand the failure mechanism of these structures to action of the strong earthquakes. Physical model method consists in two main processes. Firstly, a study model must be designed by a physical modeling process using the dynamic modeling theory. The result is a equations system of dimensioning the physical model. After the construction and instrumentation of the scale physical model a structural analysis based on experimental means is performed. The experimental results are gathered and are available to be analysed. Depending on the aim of the research may be designed an elastic or a failure physical model. The requirements for the elastic model construction are easier to accomplish in contrast with those required for a failure model, but the obtained results provide narrow information. In order to study the behaviour of concrete dams to strong seismic action is required the employment of failure physical models able to simulate accurately the possible opening of joint, sliding between concrete blocks and the cracking of concrete. The design relations for both elastic and failure physical models are based on dimensional analysis and consist of similitude relations among the physical quantities involved in the phenomenon. The using of physical models of great or medium dimensions as well as its instrumentation creates great advantages, but this operation involves a large amount of financial, logistic and time resources.

  16. Coupling a Basin Modeling and a Seismic Code using MOAB

    KAUST Repository

    Yan, Mi; Jordan, Kirk; Kaushik, Dinesh; Perrone, Michael; Sachdeva, Vipin; Tautges, Timothy J.; Magerlein, John

    2012-01-01

    We report on a demonstration of loose multiphysics coupling between a basin modeling code and a seismic code running on a large parallel machine. Multiphysics coupling, which is one critical capability for a high performance computing (HPC) framework, was implemented using the MOAB open-source mesh and field database. MOAB provides for code coupling by storing mesh data and input and output field data for the coupled analysis codes and interpolating the field values between different meshes used by the coupled codes. We found it straightforward to use MOAB to couple the PBSM basin modeling code and the FWI3D seismic code on an IBM Blue Gene/P system. We describe how the coupling was implemented and present benchmarking results for up to 8 racks of Blue Gene/P with 8192 nodes and MPI processes. The coupling code is fast compared to the analysis codes and it scales well up to at least 8192 nodes, indicating that a mesh and field database is an efficient way to implement loose multiphysics coupling for large parallel machines.

  17. Coupling a Basin Modeling and a Seismic Code using MOAB

    KAUST Repository

    Yan, Mi

    2012-06-02

    We report on a demonstration of loose multiphysics coupling between a basin modeling code and a seismic code running on a large parallel machine. Multiphysics coupling, which is one critical capability for a high performance computing (HPC) framework, was implemented using the MOAB open-source mesh and field database. MOAB provides for code coupling by storing mesh data and input and output field data for the coupled analysis codes and interpolating the field values between different meshes used by the coupled codes. We found it straightforward to use MOAB to couple the PBSM basin modeling code and the FWI3D seismic code on an IBM Blue Gene/P system. We describe how the coupling was implemented and present benchmarking results for up to 8 racks of Blue Gene/P with 8192 nodes and MPI processes. The coupling code is fast compared to the analysis codes and it scales well up to at least 8192 nodes, indicating that a mesh and field database is an efficient way to implement loose multiphysics coupling for large parallel machines.

  18. Seismic variability of subduction thrust faults: Insights from laboratory models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Faccenna, C.; Ranalli, G.; Heuret, A.

    2011-06-01

    Laboratory models are realized to investigate the role of interface roughness, driving rate, and pressure on friction dynamics. The setup consists of a gelatin block driven at constant velocity over sand paper. The interface roughness is quantified in terms of amplitude and wavelength of protrusions, jointly expressed by a reference roughness parameter obtained by their product. Frictional behavior shows a systematic dependence on system parameters. Both stick slip and stable sliding occur, depending on driving rate and interface roughness. Stress drop and frequency of slip episodes vary directly and inversely, respectively, with the reference roughness parameter, reflecting the fundamental role for the amplitude of protrusions. An increase in pressure tends to favor stick slip. Static friction is a steeply decreasing function of the reference roughness parameter. The velocity strengthening/weakening parameter in the state- and rate-dependent dynamic friction law becomes negative for specific values of the reference roughness parameter which are intermediate with respect to the explored range. Despite the simplifications of the adopted setup, which does not address the problem of off-fault fracturing, a comparison of the experimental results with the depth distribution of seismic energy release along subduction thrust faults leads to the hypothesis that their behavior is primarily controlled by the depth- and time-dependent distribution of protrusions. A rough subduction fault at shallow depths, unable to produce significant seismicity because of low lithostatic pressure, evolves into a moderately rough, velocity-weakening fault at intermediate depths. The magnitude of events in this range is calibrated by the interplay between surface roughness and subduction rate. At larger depths, the roughness further decreases and stable sliding becomes gradually more predominant. Thus, although interplate seismicity is ultimately controlled by tectonic parameters (velocity of

  19. A volume flexible inventory model with trapezoidal demand under inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    kapil mehrotra

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Abstract   This article experiment. Further, the effects of different parameters are analysed by performing sensitivity analyses on the optimal policy. explores an economic production quantity model (EPQ model for deteriorating items with time-dependent demand following trapezoidal pattern taking the volume flexibility into account. We have also considered the inflation and time value of money. The solution of the model aims at determining the optimal production run-time in order to maximize the profit. The model is also illustrated by means of numerical

  20. KFUPM-KAUST Red Sea model: Digital viscoelastic depth model and synthetic seismic data set

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shuhail, Abdullatif A.; Mousa, Wail A.; Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali

    2017-01-01

    The Red Sea is geologically interesting due to its unique structures and abundant mineral and petroleum resources, yet no digital geologic models or synthetic seismic data of the Red Sea are publicly available for testing algorithms to image and analyze the area's interesting features. This study compiles a 2D viscoelastic model of the Red Sea and calculates a corresponding multicomponent synthetic seismic data set. The models and data sets are made publicly available for download. We hope this effort will encourage interested researchers to test their processing algorithms on this data set and model and share their results publicly as well.

  1. KFUPM-KAUST Red Sea model: Digital viscoelastic depth model and synthetic seismic data set

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shuhail, Abdullatif A.

    2017-06-01

    The Red Sea is geologically interesting due to its unique structures and abundant mineral and petroleum resources, yet no digital geologic models or synthetic seismic data of the Red Sea are publicly available for testing algorithms to image and analyze the area\\'s interesting features. This study compiles a 2D viscoelastic model of the Red Sea and calculates a corresponding multicomponent synthetic seismic data set. The models and data sets are made publicly available for download. We hope this effort will encourage interested researchers to test their processing algorithms on this data set and model and share their results publicly as well.

  2. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  3. an improved structural model for seismic analysis of tall frames

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. This paper proposed and examined an improved structural model ... The equation of motion of multI-storey building shown in fig. 2 can be ... The response of the nth mode at any time t of the MDOF system demands the solution of ...

  4. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

  5. A Bayesian hierarchical model for demand curve analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yen-Yi; Nhu Vo, Tien; Chu, Haitao; Luo, Xianghua; Le, Chap T

    2018-07-01

    Drug self-administration experiments are a frequently used approach to assessing the abuse liability and reinforcing property of a compound. It has been used to assess the abuse liabilities of various substances such as psychomotor stimulants and hallucinogens, food, nicotine, and alcohol. The demand curve generated from a self-administration study describes how demand of a drug or non-drug reinforcer varies as a function of price. With the approval of the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, demand curve analysis provides crucial evidence to inform the US Food and Drug Administration's policy on tobacco regulation, because it produces several important quantitative measurements to assess the reinforcing strength of nicotine. The conventional approach popularly used to analyze the demand curve data is individual-specific non-linear least square regression. The non-linear least square approach sets out to minimize the residual sum of squares for each subject in the dataset; however, this one-subject-at-a-time approach does not allow for the estimation of between- and within-subject variability in a unified model framework. In this paper, we review the existing approaches to analyze the demand curve data, non-linear least square regression, and the mixed effects regression and propose a new Bayesian hierarchical model. We conduct simulation analyses to compare the performance of these three approaches and illustrate the proposed approaches in a case study of nicotine self-administration in rats. We present simulation results and discuss the benefits of using the proposed approaches.

  6. DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2016-01-01

    Fine-grained device-level predictions of both shiftable and non-shiftable energy demand and supply is vital in order to take advantage of Demand Response (DR) for efficient utilization of Renewable Energy Sources. The selection of an effective device-level load forecast model is a challenging task......, mainly due to the diversity of the models and the lack of proper tools and datasets that can be used to validate them. In this paper, we introduce the DeMand system for fine-tuning, analyzing, and validating the device-level forecast models. The system offers several built-in device-level measurement...... datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

  7. Motor fuel demand analysis - applied modelling in the European union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chorazewiez, S.

    1998-01-01

    Motor fuel demand in Europe amounts to almost half of petroleum products consumption and to thirty percent of total final energy consumption. This study considers, Firstly, the energy policies of different European countries and the ways in which the consumption of motor gasoline and automotive gas oil has developed. Secondly it provides an abstract of demand models in the energy sector, illustrating their specific characteristics. Then it proposes an economic model of automotive fuel consumption, showing motor gasoline and automotive gas oil separately over a period of thirty years (1960-1993) for five main countries in the European Union. Finally, forecasts of consumption of gasoline and diesel up to the year 2020 are given for different scenarios. (author)

  8. MODELLING CHALLENGES TO FORECAST URBAN GOODS DEMAND FOR RAIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio COMI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the new research challenges for forecasting urban goods demand by rail. In fact, the growing interest to find urban logistics solutions for improving city sustainability and liveability, mainly due to the reduction of urban road accessibility and environmental constraints, has pushed to explore solutions alternative to the road. Multimodal urban logistics, based on the use of railway, seem an interesting alternative solution, but it remained mainly at conceptual level. Few studies have explored the factors, that push actors to find competitive such a system with respect to the road, and modelling framework for forecasting the relative demand. Therefore, paper reviews the current literature, investigates the factors involved in choosing such a mode, and finally, recalls a recent modelling framework and hence proposes some advancements that allow to point out the rail transport alternative.

  9. Probabilistic modeling of caprock leakage from seismic reflection data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Bergjofd-Kitterød, Ingjerd

    We illustrate a methodology which helps to perform a leakage risk analysis for a CO2 reservoir based on a consistent, probabilistic approach to geophysical and geostatistical inversion. Generally, risk assessments of storage complexes are based on geological models and simulations of CO2 movement...... within the storage complexes. The geological models are built on top of geophysical data such as seismic surveys, geological information and well logs from the reservoir or nearby regions. The risk assessment of CO2 storage requires a careful analysis which accounts for all sources of uncertainty....... However, at present, no well-defined and consistent method for mapping the true uncertainty related to the geophysical data and how that uncertainty affects the overall risk assessment for the potential storage site is available. To properly quantify the uncertainties and to avoid unrealistic...

  10. Effects of induced stress on seismic forward modelling and inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromp, Jeroen; Trampert, Jeannot

    2018-05-01

    We demonstrate how effects of induced stress may be incorporated in seismic modelling and inversion. Our approach is motivated by the accommodation of pre-stress in global seismology. Induced stress modifies both the equation of motion and the constitutive relationship. The theory predicts that induced pressure linearly affects the unstressed isotropic moduli with a slope determined by their adiabatic pressure derivatives. The induced deviatoric stress produces anisotropic compressional and shear wave speeds; the latter result in shear wave splitting. For forward modelling purposes, we determine the weak form of the equation of motion under induced stress. In the context of the inverse problem, we determine induced stress sensitivity kernels, which may be used for adjoint tomography. The theory is illustrated by considering 2-D propagation of SH waves and related Fréchet derivatives based on a spectral-element method.

  11. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman; Mohsen, Mousa

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption

  12. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman [Department of Industrial Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan); Mohsen, Mousa [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan)

    2008-11-15

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption. (author)

  13. Deterministic and heuristic models of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Knowing the demand of spare parts is the basis for successful spare parts inventory management. Inventory management has two aspects. The first one is operational management: acting according to certain models and making decisions in specific situations which could not have been foreseen or have not been encompassed by models. The second aspect is optimization of the model parameters by means of inventory management. Supply items demand (asset demand is the expression of customers' needs in units in the desired time and it is one of the most important parameters in the inventory management. The basic task of the supply system is demand fulfillment. In practice, demand is expressed through requisition or request. Given the conditions in which inventory management is considered, demand can be: - deterministic or stochastic, - stationary or nonstationary, - continuous or discrete, - satisfied or unsatisfied. The application of the maintenance concept is determined by the technological level of development of the assets being maintained. For example, it is hard to imagine that the concept of self-maintenance can be applied to assets developed and put into use 50 or 60 years ago. Even less complex concepts cannot be applied to those vehicles that only have indicators of engine temperature - those that react only when the engine is overheated. This means that the maintenance concepts that can be applied are the traditional preventive maintenance and the corrective maintenance. In order to be applied in a real system, modeling and simulation methods require a completely regulated system and that is not the case with this spare parts supply system. Therefore, this method, which also enables the model development, cannot be applied. Deterministic models of forecasting are almost exclusively related to the concept of preventive maintenance. Maintenance procedures are planned in advance, in accordance with exploitation and time resources. Since the timing

  14. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  15. Development of a structural model for the nonlinear shear deformation behavior of a seismic isolator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Han; Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Yoo, Bong

    2002-02-01

    The seismic excitation test results of an isolated test structure for artificial time history excitation are summarized for structure models of the isolated structure and isolation bearing. To simulate the response characteristic of isolated structure, shear hysteresis curves of isolators are analyzed. A simple analysis model is developed representing the actual dynamic behaviors of the test model, and the seismic responses using the simple model of the isolated structure and structure models, which are developed such as linear and bilinear models for isolators, are performed and compared with those of the seismic tests. The developed bilinear model is well applicable only to large shear strain area of LLRB

  16. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  17. The Job Demands-Resources Model: An Analysis of Additive and Joint Effects of Demands and Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qiao; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Taris, Toon W.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the additive, synergistic, and moderating effects of job demands and job resources on well-being (burnout and work engagement) and organizational outcomes, as specified by the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. A survey was conducted among two Chinese samples: 625 blue collar workers and 761 health professionals. A…

  18. Modeling Supermarket Refrigeration Systems for Demand-Side Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Stoustrup

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of supermarket refrigeration systems for supervisory control in the smart grid is presented in this paper. A modular modeling approach is proposed in which each module is modeled and identified separately. The focus of the work is on estimating the power consumption of the system while estimating the cold reservoir temperatures as well. The models developed for each module as well as for the overall integrated system are validated by real data collected from a supermarket in Denmark. The results show that the model is able to estimate the actual electrical power consumption with a high fidelity. Moreover a simulation benchmark is introduced based on the produced model for demand-side management in smart grid. Finally, a potential application of the proposed benchmark in direct control of the power/energy consumption is presented by a simple simulation example.

  19. A long-distance travel demand model for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2012-01-01

    of different level-of-service variables. The results suggest that the perception of both travel time and cost varies with journey length in a non-linear way. For car drivers and car passengers, elasticities increase with the length of the journey, whereas the opposite is true for rail, bus, and air passengers...... relevant from a political and environmental point of view. The paper presents the first tour-based long-distance travel demand model for passenger trips in and between 42 European countries. The model is part of a new European transport model developed for the European Commission, the TRANSTOOLS II model......, and will serve as an important tool for transport policy analysis at a European level. The model is formulated as a nested logit model and estimated based on travel diary data with segmentation into business, private, and holiday trips. We analyse the estimation results and present elasticities for a number...

  20. The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

    2015-01-01

    New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

  1. Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.

    2012-07-22

    Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid

  2. Adaptive Estimation of Heteroscedastic Money Demand Model of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aslam

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available For the problem of estimation of Money demand model of Pakistan, money supply (M1 shows heteroscedasticity of the unknown form. For estimation of such model we compare two adaptive estimators with ordinary least squares estimator and show the attractive performance of the adaptive estimators, namely, nonparametric kernel estimator and nearest neighbour regression estimator. These comparisons are made on the basis standard errors of the estimated coefficients, standard error of regression, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC value, and the Durban-Watson statistic for autocorrelation. We further show that nearest neighbour regression estimator performs better when comparing with the other nonparametric kernel estimator.

  3. Mechanical tests for validation of seismic isolation elastomer constitutive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.

    1992-01-01

    High damping laminated elastomeric bearings are becoming the preferred device for seismic isolation of large buildings and structures, such as nuclear power plants. The key component of these bearings is a filled natural rubber elastomer. This material exhibits nonlinear behavior within the normal design range. The material damping cannot be classified as either viscous or hysteritic, but it seems to fall somewhere in between. This paper describes a series of tests that can be used to characterize the mechanical response of these elastomers. The tests are designed to determine the behavior of the elastomer in the time scale of the earthquake, which is typically from 30 to 60 seconds. The test results provide data for use in determining the material parameters associated with nonlinear constitutive models. 4 refs

  4. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z. [Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung (Indonesia); Susilo,; Efendi, Joni [Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG) (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  5. Mathematical model of the seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS) in non crystalline substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, L. C. C.; Yahya, N.; Daud, H.; Shafie, A. [Electromagnetic cluster, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, 31750 Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia)

    2012-09-26

    The mathematical model of seismic electromagnetic waves in non crystalline substances is developed and the solutions are discussed to show the possibility of improving the electromagnetic waves especially the electric field. The shear stress of the medium in fourth order tensor gives the equation of motion. Analytic methods are selected for the solutions written in Hansen vector form. From the simulated SEMS, the frequency of seismic waves has significant effects to the SEMS propagating characteristics. EM waves transform into SEMS or energized seismic waves. Traveling distance increases once the frequency of the seismic waves increases from 100% to 1000%. SEMS with greater seismic frequency will give seismic alike waves but greater energy is embedded by EM waves and hence further distance the waves travel.

  6. A model of characteristic earthquakes and its implications for regional seismicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López-Ruiz, R.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Pacheco, A.F.

    2004-01-01

    Regional seismicity (i.e. that averaged over large enough areas over long enough periods of time) has a size-frequency relationship, the Gutenberg-Richter law, which differs from that found for some seismic faults, the Characteristic Earthquake relationship. But all seismicity comes in the end from...... active faults, so the question arises of how one seismicity pattern could emerge from the other. The recently introduced Minimalist Model of Vázquez-Prada et al. of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originating from a single fault. Here, we show...... that a Characteristic Earthquake relationship together with a fractal distribution of fault lengths can accurately describe the total seismicity produced in a region. The resulting earthquake catalogue accounts for the addition of both all the characteristic and all the non-characteristic events triggered in the faults...

  7. Mathematical model of the seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS) in non crystalline substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, L. C. C.; Yahya, N.; Daud, H.; Shafie, A.

    2012-01-01

    The mathematical model of seismic electromagnetic waves in non crystalline substances is developed and the solutions are discussed to show the possibility of improving the electromagnetic waves especially the electric field. The shear stress of the medium in fourth order tensor gives the equation of motion. Analytic methods are selected for the solutions written in Hansen vector form. From the simulated SEMS, the frequency of seismic waves has significant effects to the SEMS propagating characteristics. EM waves transform into SEMS or energized seismic waves. Traveling distance increases once the frequency of the seismic waves increases from 100% to 1000%. SEMS with greater seismic frequency will give seismic alike waves but greater energy is embedded by EM waves and hence further distance the waves travel.

  8. A Work Psychological Model that Works: Expanding the Job Demands-Resources Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xanthopoulou, D.

    2007-01-01

    The main purpose of the current thesis was to test and expand the recently developed Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. The advantage of this model is that it recognizes the uniqueness of each work environment, which has its own specific job demands and job resources. According to the JD-R model,

  9. Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek N.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms). - Highlights: • Residential electricity demand for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia • Estimated residential electricity demand relationships using STSM/UEDT approach • LR income and price elasticities from 0.43 to 0.71 and − 0.16 to zero respectively • Impact CDD elasticities from 0.2 to 0.7 • Estimated UEDTs suggest exogenous electricity using behaviour.

  10. A global database of seismically and non-seismically triggered landslides for 2D/3D numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domej, Gisela; Bourdeau, Céline; Lenti, Luca; Pluta, Kacper

    2017-04-01

    Landsliding is a worldwide common phenomenon. Every year, and ranging in size from very small to enormous, landslides cause all too often loss of life and disastrous damage to infrastructure, property and the environment. One main reason for more frequent catastrophes is the growth of population on the Earth which entails extending urbanization to areas at risk. Landslides are triggered by a variety and combination of causes, among which the role of water and seismic activity appear to have the most serious consequences. In this regard, seismic shaking is of particular interest since topographic elevation as well as the landslide mass itself can trap waves and hence amplify incoming surface waves - a phenomenon known as "site effects". Research on the topic of landsliding due to seismic and non-seismic activity is extensive and a broad spectrum of methods for modeling slope deformation is available. Those methods range from pseudo-static and rigid-block based models to numerical models. The majority is limited to 2D modeling since more sophisticated approaches in 3D are still under development or calibration. However, the effect of lateral confinement as well as the mechanical properties of the adjacent bedrock might be of great importance because they may enhance the focusing of trapped waves in the landslide mass. A database was created to study 3D landslide geometries. It currently contains 277 distinct seismically and non-seismically triggered landslides spread all around the globe whose rupture bodies were measured in all available details. Therefore a specific methodology was developed to maintain predefined standards, to keep the bias as low as possible and to set up a query tool to explore the database. Besides geometry, additional information such as location, date, triggering factors, material, sliding mechanisms, event chronology, consequences, related literature, among other things are stored for every case. The aim of the database is to enable

  11. Forecasting Induced Seismicity Using Saltwater Disposal Data and a Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. In this work, we demonstrate that the basement fault stressing conditions that drive seismicity rate evolution are related directly to the operational history of 958 saltwater disposal wells completed in the Arbuckle aquifer. We developed a fluid pressurization model based on the assumption that pressure changes are dominated by reservoir compressibility effects. Using injection well data, we established a detailed description of the temporal and spatial variability in stressing conditions over the 21.5-year period from January 1995 through June 2017. With this stressing history, we applied a numerical model based on rate-and-state friction theory to generate seismicity rate forecasts across a broad range of spatial scales. The model replicated the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. The behavior of the induced earthquake sequence was consistent with the prediction from rate-and-state theory that the system evolves toward a steady seismicity rate depending on the ratio between the current and background stressing rates. Seismicity rate transients occurred over characteristic timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. We found that our hydromechanical earthquake rate model outperformed observational and empirical forecast models for one-year forecast durations over the period 2008 through 2016.

  12. Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

  13. 'Marginal Employment' and the Demand for Heterogenous Labour: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-factor Labour Demand Model for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Ronny Freier; Viktor Steiner

    2007-01-01

    We develop a structural multi-factor labour demand model which distinguishes between eight labour categories including non-standard types of employment such as marginal employment. The model is estimated for both the number of workers and total working hours using a new panel data set. For unskilled and skilled workers in full-time employment, we find labour demand elasticities similar to previous estimates for the west German economy. Our new estimates of own-wage elasticities for marginal e...

  14. Multikanban model for disassembly line with demand fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udomsawat, Gun; Gupta, Surendra M.; Al-Turki, Yousef A. Y.

    2004-02-01

    In recent years, the continuous growth in consumer waste and dwindling natural resources has seriously threatened the environment. Realizing this, several countries have passed regulations that force manufacturers not only to manufacture environmentally conscious products, but also to take back their used products from consumers so that the components and materials recovered from the products may be reused and/or recycled. Disassembly plays an important role in product recovery. A disassembly line is perhaps the most suitable setting for disassembly of products in large quantities. Because a disassembly line has a tendency to generate excessive inventory, employing a kanban system can reduce the inventory level and let the system run more efficiently. A disassembly line is quite different from an assembly line. For example, not only can the demand arrive at the last station, it can also arrive at any of the other stations in the system. The demand for a component on the disassembly line could fluctuate widely. In fact, there are many other complicating matters that need to be considered to implement the concept of kanbans in such an environment. In this paper, we discuss the complications that are unique to a disassembly line. We discuss the complications in utilizing the conventional production control mechanisms in a disassembly line setting. We then show how to overcome them by implementing kanbans in a disassembly line setting with demand fluctuation and introduce the concept of multi-kanban mechanism. We demonstrate its effectiveness using a simulation model. An example is presented to illustrate the concept.

  15. Reservoir creep and induced seismicity: inferences from geomechanical modeling of gas depletion in the Groningen field

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wees, Jan-Diederik; Osinga, Sander; Van Thienen-Visser, Karin; Fokker, Peter A.

    2018-03-01

    The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands experienced an immediate reduction in seismic events in the year following a massive cut in production. This reduction is inconsistent with existing models of seismicity predictions adopting compaction strains as proxy, since reservoir creep would then result in a more gradual reduction of seismic events after a production stop. We argue that the discontinuity in seismic response relates to a physical discontinuity in stress loading rate on faults upon the arrest of pressure change. The stresses originate from a combination of the direct poroelastic effect through the pressure changes and the delayed effect of ongoing compaction after cessation of reservoir production. Both mechanisms need to be taken into account. To this end, we employed finite-element models in a workflow that couples Kelvin-Chain reservoir creep with a semi-analytical approach for the solution of slip and seismic moment from the predicted stress change. For ratios of final creep and elastic compaction up to 5, the model predicts that the cumulative seismic moment evolution after a production stop is subject to a very moderate increase, 2-10 times less than the values predicted by the alternative approaches using reservoir compaction strain as proxy. This is in agreement with the low seismicity in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after reduction in production. The geomechanical model findings support scope for mitigating induced seismicity through adjusting rates of pressure change by cutting down production.

  16. An experimental investigation for scalability of the seismic response of microconcrete model nuclear power plant structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.G.; Dove, R.C.; Dunwoody, W.E.; Farrar, C.R.

    1987-01-01

    The paper reports the results from tests including reduced stiffnesses found in the prototype and 1/4 scale model, implications of the test results on the validity of past tests, and implications of these results from the 1986 tests on the seismic behavior of actual Seismic Category I Structures and their attached equipment. (orig./HP)

  17. Seismic wavefield modeling based on time-domain symplectic and Fourier finite-difference method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Gang; Ba, Jing; Liu, Xin-xin; Zhu, Kun; Liu, Guo-Chang

    2017-06-01

    Seismic wavefield modeling is important for improving seismic data processing and interpretation. Calculations of wavefield propagation are sometimes not stable when forward modeling of seismic wave uses large time steps for long times. Based on the Hamiltonian expression of the acoustic wave equation, we propose a structure-preserving method for seismic wavefield modeling by applying the symplectic finite-difference method on time grids and the Fourier finite-difference method on space grids to solve the acoustic wave equation. The proposed method is called the symplectic Fourier finite-difference (symplectic FFD) method, and offers high computational accuracy and improves the computational stability. Using acoustic approximation, we extend the method to anisotropic media. We discuss the calculations in the symplectic FFD method for seismic wavefield modeling of isotropic and anisotropic media, and use the BP salt model and BP TTI model to test the proposed method. The numerical examples suggest that the proposed method can be used in seismic modeling of strongly variable velocities, offering high computational accuracy and low numerical dispersion. The symplectic FFD method overcomes the residual qSV wave of seismic modeling in anisotropic media and maintains the stability of the wavefield propagation for large time steps.

  18. An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

    2017-06-01

    From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling of subduction zone seismicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinther van, Y.

    2013-07-01

    The catastrophic occurrence of the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra and 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquakes illustrated the disastrous impact of megathrust earthquakes on society. They also emphasized our limited understanding of where and when these 'big ones' may strike. The necessary improvement of long-term seismic hazard assessment requires a better physical understanding of the seismic cycle at these seismically active subduction zones. Models have the potential to overcome the restricted, direct observations in space and time. Currently, however, no model exists to explore the relation between long-term subduction dynamics and relating deformation and short-term seismogenesis. The development, validation and initial application of such a physically consistent seismo-thermo-mechanical numerical model is the main objective of this thesis. First, I present a novel analog modeling tool that simulates cycling of megathrust earthquakes in a visco-elastic gelatin wedge. A comparison with natural observations shows interseismic and coseismic physics are captured in a robust, albeit simplified, way. This tool is used to validate that a continuum-mechanics based, visco-elasto-plastic numerical approach, typically used for large-scale geodynamic problems, can be extended to study the short-term seismogenesis of megathrust earthquakes. To generate frictional instabilities and match laboratory source parameters, a local invariant implementation of a strongly slip rate-dependent friction formulation is required. The resulting continuum approach captures several interesting dynamic features, including inter-, co- and postseismic deformation that agrees qualitatively with GPS measurements and dynamic rupture features, including cracks, self-healing pulses and fault re-rupturing. To facilitate a comparison to natural settings, I consider a more realistic setup of the Southern Chilean margin in terms of geometry and physical processes. Results agree with seismological, geodetic and

  20. Seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling of subduction zone seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinther van, Y.

    2013-01-01

    The catastrophic occurrence of the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra and 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquakes illustrated the disastrous impact of megathrust earthquakes on society. They also emphasized our limited understanding of where and when these 'big ones' may strike. The necessary improvement of long-term seismic hazard assessment requires a better physical understanding of the seismic cycle at these seismically active subduction zones. Models have the potential to overcome the restricted, direct observations in space and time. Currently, however, no model exists to explore the relation between long-term subduction dynamics and relating deformation and short-term seismogenesis. The development, validation and initial application of such a physically consistent seismo-thermo-mechanical numerical model is the main objective of this thesis. First, I present a novel analog modeling tool that simulates cycling of megathrust earthquakes in a visco-elastic gelatin wedge. A comparison with natural observations shows interseismic and coseismic physics are captured in a robust, albeit simplified, way. This tool is used to validate that a continuum-mechanics based, visco-elasto-plastic numerical approach, typically used for large-scale geodynamic problems, can be extended to study the short-term seismogenesis of megathrust earthquakes. To generate frictional instabilities and match laboratory source parameters, a local invariant implementation of a strongly slip rate-dependent friction formulation is required. The resulting continuum approach captures several interesting dynamic features, including inter-, co- and postseismic deformation that agrees qualitatively with GPS measurements and dynamic rupture features, including cracks, self-healing pulses and fault re-rupturing. To facilitate a comparison to natural settings, I consider a more realistic setup of the Southern Chilean margin in terms of geometry and physical processes. Results agree with seismological, geodetic and geological

  1. Development of 3-axis precise positioning seismic physical modeling system in the simulation of marine seismic exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.; Shin, S.; Ha, J.; Lee, D.; Lim, Y.; Chung, W.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic physical modeling is a laboratory-scale experiment that deals with the actual and physical phenomena that may occur in the field. In seismic physical modeling, field conditions are downscaled and used. For this reason, even a small error may lead to a big error in an actual field. Accordingly, the positions of the source and the receiver must be precisely controlled in scale modeling. In this study, we have developed a seismic physical modeling system capable of precisely controlling the 3-axis position. For automatic and precise position control of an ultrasonic transducer(source and receiver) in the directions of the three axes(x, y, and z), a motor was mounted on each of the three axes. The motor can automatically and precisely control the positions with positional precision of 2''; for the x and y axes and 0.05 mm for the z axis. As it can automatically and precisely control the positions in the directions of the three axes, it has an advantage in that simulations can be carried out using the latest exploration techniques, such as OBS and Broadband Seismic. For the signal generation section, a waveform generator that can produce a maximum of two sources was used, and for the data acquisition section, which receives and stores reflected signals, an A/D converter that can receive a maximum of four signals was used. As multiple sources and receivers could be used at the same time, the system was set up in such a way that diverse exploration methods, such as single channel, multichannel, and 3-D exploration, could be realized. A computer control program based on LabVIEW was created, so that it could control the position of the transducer, determine the data acquisition parameters, and check the exploration data and progress in real time. A marine environment was simulated using a water tank 1 m wide, 1 m long, and 0.9 m high. To evaluate the performance and applicability of the seismic physical modeling system developed in this study, single channel and

  2. Seismic analysis of the APR1400 nuclear reactor system using a verified beam element model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jong-beom; Park, No-Cheol; Lee, Sang-Jeong; Park, Young-Pil; Choi, Youngin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A simplified beam element model is constructed based on the real dynamic characteristics of the APR1400. • Time history analysis is performed to calculate the seismic responses of the structures. • Large deformations can be observed at the in-phase mode of reactor vessel and core support barrel. - Abstract: Structural integrity is the first priority in the design of nuclear reactor internal structures. In particular, nuclear reactor internals should be designed to endure external forces, such as those due to earthquakes. Many researchers have performed finite element analyses to meet these design requirements. Generally, a seismic analysis model should reflect the dynamic characteristics of the target system. However, seismic analysis based on the finite element method requires long computation times as well as huge storage space. In this research, a beam element model was developed and confirmed based on the real dynamic characteristics of an advanced pressurized water nuclear reactor 1400 (APR1400) system. That verification process enhances the accuracy of the finite element analysis using the beam elements, remarkably. Also, the beam element model reduces seismic analysis costs. Therefore, the beam element model was used to perform the seismic analysis. Then, the safety of the APR1400 was assessed based on a seismic analysis of the time history responses of its structures. Thus, efficient, accurate seismic analysis was demonstrated using the proposed beam element model.

  3. Seismic analysis of the APR1400 nuclear reactor system using a verified beam element model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jong-beom [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722 (Korea, Republic of); Park, No-Cheol, E-mail: pnch@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang-Jeong; Park, Young-Pil [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Youngin [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, 62 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34142 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • A simplified beam element model is constructed based on the real dynamic characteristics of the APR1400. • Time history analysis is performed to calculate the seismic responses of the structures. • Large deformations can be observed at the in-phase mode of reactor vessel and core support barrel. - Abstract: Structural integrity is the first priority in the design of nuclear reactor internal structures. In particular, nuclear reactor internals should be designed to endure external forces, such as those due to earthquakes. Many researchers have performed finite element analyses to meet these design requirements. Generally, a seismic analysis model should reflect the dynamic characteristics of the target system. However, seismic analysis based on the finite element method requires long computation times as well as huge storage space. In this research, a beam element model was developed and confirmed based on the real dynamic characteristics of an advanced pressurized water nuclear reactor 1400 (APR1400) system. That verification process enhances the accuracy of the finite element analysis using the beam elements, remarkably. Also, the beam element model reduces seismic analysis costs. Therefore, the beam element model was used to perform the seismic analysis. Then, the safety of the APR1400 was assessed based on a seismic analysis of the time history responses of its structures. Thus, efficient, accurate seismic analysis was demonstrated using the proposed beam element model.

  4. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  5. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas

    1999-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO 2 tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  6. Modeling and prioritizing demand response programs in power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of power market regulator is setting rules for selecting and prioritizing demand response (DR) programs. There are many different alternatives of DR programs for improving load profile characteristics and achieving customers' satisfaction. Regulator should find the optimal solution which reflects the perspectives of each DR stakeholder. Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) is a proper method for handling such optimization problems. In this paper, an extended responsive load economic model is developed. The model is based on price elasticity and customer benefit function. Prioritizing of DR programs can be realized by means of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Considerations of ISO/utility/customer regarding the weighting of attributes are encountered by entropy method. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for selecting the most effective DR program. Numerical studies are conducted on the load curve of the Iranian power grid in 2007. (author)

  7. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-11-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  8. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-07-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs.

  9. Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

  10. An asymptotic model of seismic reflection from a permeable layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silin, D.; Goloshubin, G.

    2009-10-15

    Analysis of compression wave propagation in a poroelastic medium predicts a peak of reflection from a high-permeability layer in the low-frequency end of the spectrum. An explicit formula expresses the resonant frequency through the elastic moduli of the solid skeleton, the permeability of the reservoir rock, the fluid viscosity and compressibility, and the reservoir thickness. This result is obtained through a low-frequency asymptotic analysis of Biot's model of poroelasticity. A review of the derivation of the main equations from the Hooke's law, momentum and mass balance equations, and Darcy's law suggests an alternative new physical interpretation of some coefficients of the classical poroelasticity. The velocity of wave propagation, the attenuation factor, and the wave number, are expressed in the form of power series with respect to a small dimensionless parameter. The absolute value of this parameter is equal to the product of the kinematic reservoir fluid mobility and the wave frequency. Retaining only the leading terms of the series leads to explicit and relatively simple expressions for the reflection and transmission coefficients for a planar wave crossing an interface between two permeable media, as well as wave reflection from a thin highly-permeable layer (a lens). Practical applications of the obtained asymptotic formulae are seismic modeling, inversion, and at-tribute analysis.

  11. Stochastic Modelling as a Tool for Seismic Signals Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Kucharczyk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to model nonstationary real-world processes one can find appropriate theoretical model with properties following the analyzed data. However in this case many trajectories of the analyzed process are required. Alternatively, one can extract parts of the signal that have homogenous structure via segmentation. The proper segmentation can lead to extraction of important features of analyzed phenomena that cannot be described without the segmentation. There is no one universal method that can be applied for all of the phenomena; thus novel methods should be invented for specific cases. They might address specific character of the signal in different domains (time, frequency, time-frequency, etc.. In this paper we propose two novel segmentation methods that take under consideration the stochastic properties of the analyzed signals in time domain. Our research is motivated by the analysis of vibration signals acquired in an underground mine. In such signals we observe seismic events which appear after the mining activity, like blasting, provoked relaxation of rock, and some unexpected events, like natural rock burst. The proposed segmentation procedures allow for extraction of such parts of the analyzed signals which are related to mentioned events.

  12. Importance of modeling beam-column joints for seismic safety of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Akanshu; Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.; Eligehausen, R.; Hofmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    Almost all structures, except the containment building, in a NPP can be classified as reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures. In case of such structures subjected to seismic loads, beam-column joints are recognized as the critical and vulnerable zone. During an earthquake, the global behavior of the structure is highly governed by the behavior of the joints. If the joints behave in a ductile manner, the global behavior generally will be ductile, whereas if the joints behave in a brittle fashion then the structure will display a brittle behavior. The joints of old and non-seismically detailed structures are more vulnerable and behave poorly under the earthquakes compared to the joints of new and seismically detailed structures. Modeling of these joint regions is very important for correct assessment of the seismic performance of the structures. In this paper, it is shown with the help of a recently developed joint model that not modeling the inelastic behavior of the joints can lead to significantly misleading and unsafe results in terms of the performance assessment of the structures under seismic loads. Comparison of analytical and experimental results is shown for two structures, tested under lateral monotonic seismic pushover loads. It is displayed that the model can predict the inelastic seismic response of structures considering joint distortion with high accuracy by little extra effort in modeling. (author)

  13. Scale model study of the seismic response of a nuclear reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, R.C.; Dunwoody, W.E.; Rhorer, R.L.

    1983-01-01

    The use of scale models to study the dynamics of a system of graphite core blocks used in certain nuclear reactor designs is described. Scaling laws, material selecton, model instrumentation to measure collision forces, and the response of several models to simulated seismic excitation are covered. The effects of Coulomb friction between the blocks and the clearance gaps between the blocks on the system response to seismic excitation are emphasized

  14. Motorized Activity on Legacy Seismic Lines: A Predictive Modeling Approach to Prioritize Restoration Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornseth, M L; Pigeon, K E; MacNearney, D; Larsen, T A; Stenhouse, G; Cranston, J; Finnegan, L

    2018-05-11

    Natural regeneration of seismic lines, cleared for hydrocarbon exploration, is slow and often hindered by vegetation damage, soil compaction, and motorized human activity. There is an extensive network of seismic lines in western Canada which is known to impact forest ecosystems, and seismic lines have been linked to declines in woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Seismic line restoration is costly, but necessary for caribou conservation to reduce cumulative disturbance. Understanding where motorized activity may be impeding regeneration of seismic lines will aid in prioritizing restoration. Our study area in west-central Alberta, encompassed five caribou ranges where restoration is required under federal species at risk recovery strategies, hence prioritizing seismic lines for restoration is of immediate conservation value. To understand patterns of motorized activity on seismic lines, we evaluated five a priori hypotheses using a predictive modeling framework and Geographic Information System variables across three landscapes in the foothills and northern boreal regions of Alberta. In the northern boreal landscape, motorized activity was most common in dry areas with a large industrial footprint. In highly disturbed areas of the foothills, motorized activity on seismic lines increased with low vegetation heights, relatively dry soils, and further from forest cutblocks, while in less disturbed areas of the foothills, motorized activity on seismic lines decreased proportional to seismic line density, slope steepness, and white-tailed deer abundance, and increased proportional with distance to roads. We generated predictive maps of high motorized activity, identifying 21,777 km of seismic lines where active restoration could expedite forest regeneration.

  15. Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Functional State Space Model

    OpenAIRE

    Nagbe , Komi; Cugliari , Jairo; Jacques , Julien

    2018-01-01

    In the last past years the liberalization of the electricity supply, the increase variability of electric appliances and their use, and the need to respond to the electricity demand in the real time had made electricity demand forecasting a challenge. To this challenge, many solutions are being proposed. The electricity demand involves many sources such as economic activities, household need and weather sources. All this sources make hard electricity demand forecasting. To forecast the electr...

  16. Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, C.

    2000-01-01

    An approach to analyse and quantify the impact of lifestyle factors on current and future energy demand is developed. Thereby not only directly environmentally relevant consumer activities such as car use or heating have been analysed, but also expenditure patterns which induce environmental damage through the production of the consumed goods. The use of household survey data from the national statistical offices offers the possibility to cover this wide range of activities. For the available social-economic household characteristics a variety of different behavioural patterns have been observed. For evaluating the energy and emission consequences of the consumed goods enhanced input-output models are used. The additions implemented - a mixed monetary-energetic approach for inter-industry flows and a separate treatment of transport -related emissions - improve the reliability of the obtained results. The developed approach has been used for analysing current emissions profiles and distributions in West Germany, France and the Netherlands as well as scenarios for future energy demand and related emissions. It therefore provides a comprehensive methodology to analyse environmental effects in a consumer and citizen perspective and thus contributes to an increase transparency of complex economic and ecological interconnections. (author)

  17. Job Demands-Control-Support model and employee safety performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Nick; Stride, Chris B; Carter, Angela J; McCaughey, Deirdre; Carroll, Anthony E

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this study was to explore whether work characteristics (job demands, job control, social support) comprising Karasek and Theorell's (1990) Job Demands-Control-Support framework predict employee safety performance (safety compliance and safety participation; Neal and Griffin, 2006). We used cross-sectional data of self-reported work characteristics and employee safety performance from 280 healthcare staff (doctors, nurses, and administrative staff) from Emergency Departments of seven hospitals in the United Kingdom. We analyzed these data using a structural equation model that simultaneously regressed safety compliance and safety participation on the main effects of each of the aforementioned work characteristics, their two-way interactions, and the three-way interaction among them, while controlling for demographic, occupational, and organizational characteristics. Social support was positively related to safety compliance, and both job control and the two-way interaction between job control and social support were positively related to safety participation. How work design is related to employee safety performance remains an important area for research and provides insight into how organizations can improve workplace safety. The current findings emphasize the importance of the co-worker in promoting both safety compliance and safety participation. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling money demand components in Lebanon using autoregressive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mourad, M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses monetary aggregate in Lebanon and its different component methodology of AR model. Thirteen variables in monthly data have been studied for the period January 1990 through December 2005. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) procedure, twelve variables are integrated at order 1, thus they need the filter (1-B)) to become stationary, however the variable X 1 3,t (claims on private sector) becomes stationary with the filter (1-B)(1-B 1 2) . The ex-post forecasts have been calculated for twelve horizons and for one horizon (one-step ahead forecast). The quality of forecasts has been measured using the MAPE criterion for which the forecasts are good because the MAPE values are lower. Finally, a pursuit of this research using the cointegration approach is proposed. (author)

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Performance Model for Tunnel Form Concrete Building Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bahram Beheshti Aval

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite widespread construction of mass-production houses with tunnel form structural system across the world, unfortunately no special seismic code is published for design of this type of construction. Through a literature survey, only a few studies are about the seismic behavior of this type of structural system. Thus based on reasonable numerical results, the seismic performance of structures constructed with this technique considering the effective factors on structural behavior is highly noteworthy in a seismic code development process. In addition, due to newness of this system and observed damages in past earthquakes, and especially random nature of future earthquakes, the importance of probabilistic approach and necessity of developing fragility curves in a next generation Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE frame work are important. In this study, the seismic behavior of 2, 5 and 10 story tunnel form structures with a regular plan is examined. First, the performance levels of these structures under the design earthquake (return period of 475 years with time history analysis and pushover method are assessed, and then through incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curves are extracted for different levels of damage in walls and spandrels. The results indicated that the case study structures have high capacity and strength and show appropriate seismic performance. Moreover, all three structures subjected were in immediate occupancy performance level.

  20. Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

    OpenAIRE

    Skouri, K.; Konstantaras, I.

    2009-01-01

    An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate) is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment p...

  1. A model of seismic focus and related statistical distributions of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, Bogdan-Felix

    2006-01-01

    A growth model for accumulating seismic energy in a localized seismic focus is described, which introduces a fractional parameter r on geometrical grounds. The model is employed for deriving a power-type law for the statistical distribution in energy, where the parameter r contributes to the exponent, as well as corresponding time and magnitude distributions for earthquakes. The accompanying seismic activity of foreshocks and aftershocks is discussed in connection with this approach, as based on Omori distributions, and the rate of released energy is derived

  2. Seismic soil structure interaction: analysis and centrifuge model studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, W.D.L.; Ledbetter, R.H.; Beratan, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    A method for non-linear dynamic effective stress analysis is introduced which is applicable to soil-structure interaction problems. Full interaction including slip between structure and foundation is taken into account and the major factors are included which must be considered when computing dynamic soil response. An experimental investigation was conducted using simulated earthquake tests on centrifuged geotechnical models in order to obtain prototype response data of foundation soils carrying both surface and embedded structures and to validate the dynamic effective stress analysis. Horizontal and vertical accelerations were measured at various points on structures and in the sand foundation. Seismically-induced pore water pressure changes were also measured at various locations in the foundation. Computer plots of the data were obtained while the centrifuge was in flight and representative samples are presented. The results show clearly the pronounced effect that increasing pore water pressures have on dynamic response. It is demonstrated that a coherent picture of dynamic response of soil-structure systems is provided by dynamic effective stress non-linear analysis. Based on preliminary results, it appears that the pore water pressure effects can be predicted

  3. Seismic soil-structure interaction: Analysis and centrifuge model studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, W.D.L.; Ledbetter, R.H.; Beratan, L.L.

    1986-01-01

    A method for nonlinear dynamic effective stress analysis applicable to soil-structure interaction problems is introduced. Full interaction including slip between structure and foundation is taken into account and the major factors that must be considered when computing dynamic soil response are included. An experimental investigation using simulated earthquake tests on centrifuged geotechnical models was conducted to obtain prototype response data of foundation soils carrying both surface and embedded structures and to validate the dynamic effective stress analysis. The centrifuge tests were conducted in the Geotechnical Centrifuge at Cambridge University, England. Horizontal and vertical accelerations were measured at various points on structures and in the sand foundation. Seismically induced pore water pressure changes were also measured at various locations in the foundation. Computer plots of the data were obtained while the centrifuge was in flight and representative samples are presented. The results clearly show the pronounced effect of increasing pore water pressures on dynamic response. It is demonstrated that a coherent picture of dynamic response of soil-structure systems is provided by dynamic effective stress nonlinear analysis. On the basis of preliminary results, it appears that the effects of pore water pressure can be predicted. (orig.)

  4. A robust absorbing layer method for anisotropic seismic wave modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Métivier, L., E-mail: ludovic.metivier@ujf-grenoble.fr [LJK, CNRS, Université de Grenoble, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Brossier, R. [ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Labbé, S. [LJK, CNRS, Université de Grenoble, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Operto, S. [Géoazur, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, CNRS, IRD, OCA, Villefranche-sur-Mer (France); Virieux, J. [ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France)

    2014-12-15

    When applied to wave propagation modeling in anisotropic media, Perfectly Matched Layers (PML) exhibit instabilities. Incoming waves are amplified instead of being absorbed. Overcoming this difficulty is crucial as in many seismic imaging applications, accounting accurately for the subsurface anisotropy is mandatory. In this study, we present the SMART layer method as an alternative to PML approach. This method is based on the decomposition of the wavefield into components propagating inward and outward the domain of interest. Only outgoing components are damped. We show that for elastic and acoustic wave propagation in Transverse Isotropic media, the SMART layer is unconditionally dissipative: no amplification of the wavefield is possible. The SMART layers are not perfectly matched, therefore less accurate than conventional PML. However, a reasonable increase of the layer size yields an accuracy similar to PML. Finally, we illustrate that the selective damping strategy on which is based the SMART method can prevent the generation of spurious S-waves by embedding the source in a small zone where only S-waves are damped.

  5. A robust absorbing layer method for anisotropic seismic wave modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Métivier, L.; Brossier, R.; Labbé, S.; Operto, S.; Virieux, J.

    2014-01-01

    When applied to wave propagation modeling in anisotropic media, Perfectly Matched Layers (PML) exhibit instabilities. Incoming waves are amplified instead of being absorbed. Overcoming this difficulty is crucial as in many seismic imaging applications, accounting accurately for the subsurface anisotropy is mandatory. In this study, we present the SMART layer method as an alternative to PML approach. This method is based on the decomposition of the wavefield into components propagating inward and outward the domain of interest. Only outgoing components are damped. We show that for elastic and acoustic wave propagation in Transverse Isotropic media, the SMART layer is unconditionally dissipative: no amplification of the wavefield is possible. The SMART layers are not perfectly matched, therefore less accurate than conventional PML. However, a reasonable increase of the layer size yields an accuracy similar to PML. Finally, we illustrate that the selective damping strategy on which is based the SMART method can prevent the generation of spurious S-waves by embedding the source in a small zone where only S-waves are damped

  6. Travel demand modeling for the small and medium sized MPOs in Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Travel demand modeling is an important tool in the transportation planning community. It helps forecast travel : characteristics into the future at various planning levels such as state, region and corridor. Using travel demand : modeling to evaluate...

  7. Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marce...

  8. Realistic modelling of observed seismic motion in complex sedimentary basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faeh, D.; Panza, G.F.

    1994-03-01

    Three applications of a numerical technique are illustrated to model realistically the seismic ground motion for complex two-dimensional structures. First we consider a sedimentary basin in the Friuli region, and we model strong motion records from an aftershock of the 1976 earthquake. Then we simulate the ground motion caused in Rome by the 1915, Fucino (Italy) earthquake, and we compare our modelling with the damage distribution observed in the town. Finally we deal with the interpretation of ground motion recorded in Mexico City, as a consequence of earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The synthetic signals explain the major characteristics (relative amplitudes, spectral amplification, frequency content) of the considered seismograms, and the space distribution of the available macroseismic data. For the sedimentary basin in the Friuli area, parametric studies demonstrate the relevant sensitivity of the computed ground motion to small changes in the subsurface topography of the sedimentary basin, and in the velocity and quality factor of the sediments. The total energy of ground motion, determined from our numerical simulation in Rome, is in very good agreement with the distribution of damage observed during the Fucino earthquake. For epicentral distances in the range 50km-100km, the source location and not only the local soil conditions control the local effects. For Mexico City, the observed ground motion can be explained as resonance effects and as excitation of local surface waves, and the theoretical and the observed maximum spectral amplifications are very similar. In general, our numerical simulations permit the estimate of the maximum and average spectral amplification for specific sites, i.e. are a very powerful tool for accurate micro-zonation. (author). 38 refs, 19 figs, 1 tab

  9. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  10. Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cannizzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

  11. Seismic analysis of a reinforced concrete containment vessel model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randy, James J.; Cherry, Jeffery L.; Rashid, Yusef R.; Chokshi, Nilesh

    2000-01-01

    Pre-and post-test analytical predictions of the dynamic behavior of a 1:10 scale model Reinforced Concrete Containment Vessel are presented. This model, designed and constructed by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., was subjected to seismic simulation tests using the high-performance shaking table at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory in Japan. A group of tests representing design-level and beyond-design-level ground motions were first conducted to verify design safety margins. These were followed by a series of tests in which progressively larger base motions were applied until structural failure was induced. The analysis was performed by ANATECH Corp. and Sandia National Laboratories for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, employing state-of-the-art finite-element software specifically developed for concrete structures. Three-dimensional time-history analyses were performed, first as pre-test blind predictions to evaluate the general capabilities of the analytical methods, and second as post-test validation of the methods and interpretation of the test result. The input data consisted of acceleration time histories for the horizontal, vertical and rotational (rocking) components, as measured by accelerometers mounted on the structure's basemat. The response data consisted of acceleration and displacement records for various points on the structure, as well as time-history records of strain gages mounted on the reinforcement. This paper reports on work in progress and presents pre-test predictions and post-test comparisons to measured data for tests simulating maximum design basis and extreme design basis earthquakes. The pre-test analyses predict the failure earthquake of the test structure to have an energy level in the range of four to five times the energy level of the safe shutdown earthquake. The post-test calculations completed so far show good agreement with measured data

  12. Imaging the Chicxulub central crater zone from large scale seismic acoustic wave propagation and gravity modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.; Ortiz-Aleman, C.; Martin, R.

    2017-12-01

    Large complex craters are characterized by central uplifts that represent large-scale differential movement of deep basement from the transient cavity. Here we investigate the central sector of the large multiring Chicxulub crater, which has been surveyed by an array of marine, aerial and land-borne geophysical methods. Despite high contrasts in physical properties,contrasting results for the central uplift have been obtained, with seismic reflection surveys showing lack of resolution in the central zone. We develop an integrated seismic and gravity model for the main structural elements, imaging the central basement uplift and melt and breccia units. The 3-D velocity model built from interpolation of seismic data is validated using perfectly matched layer seismic acoustic wave propagation modeling, optimized at grazing incidence using shift in the frequency domain. Modeling shows significant lack of illumination in the central sector, masking presence of the central uplift. Seismic energy remains trapped in an upper low velocity zone corresponding to the sedimentary infill, melt/breccias and surrounding faulted blocks. After conversion of seismic velocities into a volume of density values, we use massive parallel forward gravity modeling to constrain the size and shape of the central uplift that lies at 4.5 km depth, providing a high-resolution image of crater structure.The Bouguer anomaly and gravity response of modeled units show asymmetries, corresponding to the crater structure and distribution of post-impact carbonates, breccias, melt and target sediments

  13. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  14. Demand Response Resource Quantification with Detailed Building Energy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Elaine; Horsey, Henry; Merket, Noel; Stoll, Brady; Nag, Ambarish

    2017-04-03

    Demand response is a broad suite of technologies that enables changes in electrical load operations in support of power system reliability and efficiency. Although demand response is not a new concept, there is new appetite for comprehensively evaluating its technical potential in the context of renewable energy integration. The complexity of demand response makes this task difficult -- we present new methods for capturing the heterogeneity of potential responses from buildings, their time-varying nature, and metrics such as thermal comfort that help quantify likely acceptability of specific demand response actions. Computed with an automated software framework, the methods are scalable.

  15. A local adaptive method for the numerical approximation in seismic wave modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galuzzi Bruno G.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new numerical approach for the solution of the 2D acoustic wave equation to model the predicted data in the field of active-source seismic inverse problems. This method consists in using an explicit finite difference technique with an adaptive order of approximation of the spatial derivatives that takes into account the local velocity at the grid nodes. Testing our method to simulate the recorded seismograms in a marine seismic acquisition, we found that the low computational time and the low approximation error of the proposed approach make it suitable in the context of seismic inversion problems.

  16. Distribution of ground rigidity and ground model for seismic response analysis in Hualian project of large scale seismic test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kokusho, T.; Nishi, K.; Okamoto, T.; Tanaka, Y.; Ueshima, T.; Kudo, K.; Kataoka, T.; Ikemi, M.; Kawai, T.; Sawada, Y.; Suzuki, K.; Yajima, K.; Higashi, S.

    1997-01-01

    An international joint research program called HLSST is proceeding. HLSST is large-scale seismic test (LSST) to investigate soil-structure interaction (SSI) during large earthquake in the field in Hualien, a high seismic region in Taiwan. A 1/4-scale model building was constructed on the gravelly soil in this site, and the backfill material of crushed stone was placed around the model plant after excavation for the construction. Also the model building and the foundation ground were extensively instrumental to monitor structure and ground response. To accurately evaluate SSI during earthquakes, geotechnical investigation and forced vibration test were performed during construction process namely before/after base excavation, after structure construction and after backfilling. And the distribution of the mechanical properties of the gravelly soil and the backfill are measured after the completion of the construction by penetration test and PS-logging etc. This paper describes the distribution and the change of the shear wave velocity (V s ) measured by the field test. Discussion is made on the effect of overburden pressure during the construction process on V s in the neighbouring soil and, further on the numerical soil model for SSI analysis. (orig.)

  17. Quantitative Seismic Amplitude Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dey, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Seismic Value Chain quantifies the cyclic interaction between seismic acquisition, imaging and reservoir characterization. Modern seismic innovation to address the global imbalance in hydrocarbon supply and demand requires such cyclic interaction of both feed-forward and feed-back processes.

  18. Econometric Modeling: An Application to the Demand for Electricity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical results show an inverse relationship between real appliance purchase price, the real per capita income and the demand for electricity. Also the rate of population growth rate as a proxy for electricity consumers appears to be insignificant. This reveals the clear fact that the demand for electricity is greater than ...

  19. Comparative Application of Capacity Models for Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of Existing RC Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faella, C.; Lima, C.; Martinelli, E.; Nigro, E.

    2008-01-01

    Seismic vulnerability assessment of existing buildings is one of the most common tasks in which Structural Engineers are currently engaged. Since, its is often a preliminary step to approach the issue of how to retrofit non-seismic designed and detailed structures, it plays a key role in the successful choice of the most suitable strengthening technique. In this framework, the basic information for both seismic assessment and retrofitting is related to the formulation of capacity models for structural members. Plenty of proposals, often contradictory under the quantitative standpoint, are currently available within the technical and scientific literature for defining the structural capacity in terms of force and displacements, possibly with reference to different parameters representing the seismic response. The present paper shortly reviews some of the models for capacity of RC members and compare them with reference to two case studies assumed as representative of a wide class of existing buildings

  20. 2D and 3D numerical modeling of seismic waves from explosion sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, K.L.; Stevens, J.L.; Barker, T.G.; Shkoller, B.; Day, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    Over the last decade, nonlinear and linear 2D axisymmetric finite difference codes have been used in conjunction with far-field seismic Green's functions to simulate seismic waves from a variety of sources. In this paper we briefly review some of the results and conclusions that have resulted from numerical simulations and explosion modeling in support of treaty verification research at S-CUBED in the last decade. We then describe in more detail the results from two recent projects. Our goal is to provide a flavor for the kinds of problems that can be examined with numerical methods for modeling excitation of seismic waves from explosions. Two classes of problems have been addressed; nonlinear and linear near-source interactions. In both classes of problems displacements and tractions are saved on a closed surface in the linear region and the representation theorem is used to propagate the seismic waves to the far-field

  1. Estimation of Seismic Wavelets Based on the Multivariate Scale Mixture of Gaussians Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing-Huai Gao

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method for estimating seismic wavelets. Suppose a seismic wavelet can be modeled by a formula with three free parameters (scale, frequency and phase. We can transform the estimation of the wavelet into determining these three parameters. The phase of the wavelet is estimated by constant-phase rotation to the seismic signal, while the other two parameters are obtained by the Higher-order Statistics (HOS (fourth-order cumulant matching method. In order to derive the estimator of the Higher-order Statistics (HOS, the multivariate scale mixture of Gaussians (MSMG model is applied to formulating the multivariate joint probability density function (PDF of the seismic signal. By this way, we can represent HOS as a polynomial function of second-order statistics to improve the anti-noise performance and accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can work well for short time series.

  2. Use of a viscoelastic model for the seismic response of base-isolated buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uras, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology, seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly becoming an acceptable design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, high-energy seismic input motions are transformed into low-frequency, low energy harmonic motions and the accelerations acting on the isolated building are significantly reduced. Several alternatives exist for the modeling of the isolators. This study is concerned with the use of a viscoelastic model to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. The in-house finite element computer code has been modified to incorporate a viscoelastic spring element, and several simulations are performed. Then, the computed results have been compared with the corresponding observed data recorded at the test facility

  3. Modeling the impact of melt on seismic properties during mountain building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Amicia L.; Walker, Andrew M.; Lloyd, Geoffrey E.; Torvela, Taija

    2017-03-01

    Initiation of partial melting in the mid/lower crust causes a decrease in P wave and S wave velocities; recent studies imply that the relationship between these velocities and melt is not simple. We have developed a modeling approach to assess the combined impact of various melt and solid phase properties on seismic velocities and anisotropy. The modeling is based on crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) data measured from migmatite samples, allowing quantification of the variation of seismic velocities with varying melt volumes, shapes, orientations, and matrix anisotropy. The results show nonlinear behavior of seismic properties as a result of the interaction of all of these physical properties, which in turn depend on lithology, stress regime, strain rate, preexisting rock fabrics, and pressure-temperature conditions. This nonlinear behavior is evident when applied to a suite of samples from a traverse across a migmatitic shear zone in the Seiland Igneous Province, Northern Norway. Critically, changes in solid phase composition and CPO, and melt shape and orientation with respect to the wave propagation direction can result in huge variations in the same seismic property even if the melt fraction remains the same. A comparison with surface wave interpretations from tectonically active regions highlights the issues in current models used to predict melt percentages or partially molten regions. Interpretation of seismic data to infer melt percentages or extent of melting should, therefore, always be underpinned by robust modeling of the underlying geological parameters combined with examination of multiple seismic properties in order to reduce uncertainty of the interpretation.

  4. State-level electricity demand forecasting model. [For 1980, 1985, 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, H. D.

    1978-01-01

    This note briefly describes the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) state-level electricity demand (SLED) forecasting model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Specifically, the note presents (1) the special features of the model, (2) the methodology used to forecast electricity demand, and (3) forecasts of electricity demand and average price by sector for 15 states for 1980, 1985, 1990.

  5. Self-Efficacy and Workaholism as Initiators of the Job Demands-Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Depolo, Marco

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to investigate school principals' well-being by using the job demands-resources (JD-R) model as a theoretical framework. It aims at making a significant contribution to the development of this model by considering not only job demands and job resources, but also the role of personal resources and personal demands as…

  6. The Job Demands-Resources Model in China: Validation and Extension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Q.

    2014-01-01

    The Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) Model assumes that employee health and well-being result from the interplay between job demands and job resources. Based on its openheuristic nature, the JD-R model can be applied to various occupational settings, irrespective of the particular demands and resources

  7. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  8. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Demand Response Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathieu, Johanna L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    While the traditional goal of an electric power system has been to control supply to fulfill demand, the demand-side can plan an active role in power systems via Demand Response (DR), defined by the Department of Energy (DOE) as “a tariff or program established to motivate changes in electric use by end-use customers in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to give incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high market prices or when grid reliability is jeopardized” [29]. DR can provide a variety of benefits including reducing peak electric loads when the power system is stressed and fast timescale energy balancing. Therefore, DR can improve grid reliability and reduce wholesale energy prices and their volatility. This dissertation focuses on analyzing both recent and emerging DR paradigms. Recent DR programs have focused on peak load reduction in commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities). We present methods for using 15-minute-interval electric load data, commonly available from C&I facilities, to help building managers understand building energy consumption and ‘ask the right questions’ to discover opportunities for DR. Additionally, we present a regression-based model of whole building electric load, i.e., a baseline model, which allows us to quantify DR performance. We use this baseline model to understand the performance of 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated dynamic pricing DR program in California. In this program, facilities are expected to exhibit the same response each DR event. We find that baseline model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify changes in electricity consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. Therefore, we present a method to compute baseline model error and a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real

  9. Finite Element Modelling of Seismic Liquefaction in Soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galavi, V.; Petalas, A.; Brinkgreve, R.B.J.

    2013-01-01

    Numerical aspects of seismic liquefaction in soils as implemented in the finite element code, PLAXIS, is described in this paper. After description of finite element equations of dynamic problems, three practical dynamic boundary conditions, namely viscous boundary tractions, tied degrees of freedom

  10. On the modeling and inversion of seismic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, C.C.

    2000-01-01

    In this thesis we investigate some mathematical questions related to the inversion of seismic data. In Chapter 2 we review results in the literature and give some new results on wave equations with coefficients that are just bounded and measurable. We show that these equations have unique

  11. The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

  12. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  13. Application of mass-spring model in seismic analysis of liquid storage tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jiayi; Bai Xinran; Li Xiaoxuan

    2013-01-01

    There are many tanks for storing liquid in nuclear power plant. When seismic analysis is performed, swaying of liquid may change the mechanical parameters of those tanks, such as the center of mass and the moment of inertia, etc., so the load due to swaying of liquid can't be neglected. Mass-spring model is a simplified model to calculate the dynamic pressure of liquid in tank under earthquake, which is derived by the theory of Housner and given in the specification of seismic analysis of Safety-Related Nuclear Structures and Commentary-4-98 (ASCE-4-98 for short hereinafter). According to the theory of Housner and ASCE-4-98, the mass-spring 3-D FEM model for storage tank and liquid in it was established, by which the force of stored liquid acted on liquid storage tank in nuclear power plant under horizontal seismic load was calculated. The calculated frequency of liquid swaying and effect of liquid convection on storage tank were compared with those calculated by simplified formula. It is shown that the results of 3-D FEM model are reasonable and reliable. Further more, it is more direct and convenient compared with description in ASCE-4-98 when the mass-spring model is applied to 3-D FEM model for seismic analysis, from which the displacement and stress distributions of the plate-shell elements or the 3-D solid finite elements can be obtained directly from the seismic input model. (authors)

  14. Present-Day Mars' Seismicity Predicted From 3-D Thermal Evolution Models of Interior Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plesa, A.-C.; Knapmeyer, M.; Golombek, M. P.; Breuer, D.; Grott, M.; Kawamura, T.; Lognonné, P.; Tosi, N.; Weber, R. C.

    2018-03-01

    The Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport mission, to be launched in 2018, will perform a comprehensive geophysical investigation of Mars in situ. The Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure package aims to detect global and regional seismic events and in turn offer constraints on core size, crustal thickness, and core, mantle, and crustal composition. In this study, we estimate the present-day amount and distribution of seismicity using 3-D numerical thermal evolution models of Mars, taking into account contributions from convective stresses as well as from stresses associated with cooling and planetary contraction. Defining the seismogenic lithosphere by an isotherm and assuming two end-member cases of 573 K and the 1073 K, we determine the seismogenic lithosphere thickness. Assuming a seismic efficiency between 0.025 and 1, this thickness is used to estimate the total annual seismic moment budget, and our models show values between 5.7 × 1016 and 3.9 × 1019 Nm.

  15. A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

    2017-01-01

    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

  16. Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Skouri

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment policies: (a starting with no shortages and (b starting with shortages. The optimal replenishment policy for the model is derived for both the above mentioned policies.

  17. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand using integrated modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zupanc, Vesna; Pintar, Marina

    2004-01-01

    Water is basic element in agriculture, and along with the soil characteristics, it remains the essential for the growth and evolution of plants. Trends of air temperature and precipitation for Slovenia indicate the increase of the air temperature and reduction of precipitation during the vegetation period, which will have a substantial impact on rural economy in Slovenia. The impact of climate change will be substantial for soil the water balance. Distinctive drought periods in past years had great impact on rural plants in light soils. Climate change will most probably also result in drought in soils which otherwise provide optimal water supply for plants. Water balance in the cross section of the rooting depth is significant for the agriculture. Mathematical models enable smaller amount of measurements in a certain area by means of measurements carried out only in characteristic points serving for verification and calibration of the model. Combination of on site measurements and mathematical modelling proved to be an efficient method for understanding of processes in nature. Climate scenarios made for the estimation of the impact of climate change are based on the general circulation models. A study based on a hundred year set of monthly data showed that in Slovenia temperature would increase at min. by 2.3 o C, and by 5.6 o C at max and by 4.5 o C in average. Valid methodology for the estimate of the impact of climate change applies the model using a basic set of data for a thirty year period (1961-1990) and a changed set of climate input parameters on one hand, and, on the other, a comparison of output results of the model. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand for West Slovenia for peaches and nectarines grown on Cambisols and Fluvisols was made using computer model SWAP. SWAP is a precise and power too[ for the estimation of elements of soil water balance at the level of cross section of the monitored and studied profile from the soil surface

  18. Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types

  19. Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-04-30

    mechanisms for foreshock , mainshock, and aftershock sequences using Seismic Research Observatory (SRO) data, EOS, 57(12), p. 954, 1976. Bache, T.C., W.L...the event as well as that of the immediate foreshock were 95 located (Allen and Nordquist, 1972) and where the largest surface displacements were...1972). Foreshock , main shock and larger aftershocks of the Borrego Mountain earthquake, U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 787, 16-23. Bache

  20. Post-seismic relaxation theory on laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitz, F.F.

    2003-01-01

    Investigation was carried out into the problem of relaxation of a laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The formal solution utilizes a semi-analytic solution for post-seismic deformation on a laterally homogeneous Earth constructed from viscoelastic normal modes, followed by application of mode coupling theory to derive the response on the aspherical Earth. The solution is constructed in the Laplace transform domain using the correspondence principle and is valid for any linear constitutive relationship between stress and strain. The specific implementation described in this paper is a semi-analytic discretization method which assumes isotropic elastic structure and a Maxwell constitutive relation. It accounts for viscoelastic-gravitational coupling under lateral variations in elastic parameters and viscosity. For a given viscoelastic structure and minimum wavelength scale, the computational effort involved with the numerical algorithm is proportional to the volume of the laterally heterogeneous region. Examples are presented of the calculation of post-seismic relaxation with a shallow, laterally heterogeneous volume following synthetic impulsive seismic events, and they illustrate the potentially large effect of regional 3-D heterogeneities on regional deformation patterns.

  1. The finite-difference and finite-element modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moszo, P.; Kristek, J.; Galis, M.; Pazak, P.; Balazovijech, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion is an irreplaceable tool in investigation of the Earth's structure, processes in the Earth, and particularly earthquake phenomena. Among various numerical methods, the finite-difference method is the dominant method in the modeling of earthquake motion. Moreover, it is becoming more important in the seismic exploration and structural modeling. At the same time we are convinced that the best time of the finite-difference method in seismology is in the future. This monograph provides tutorial and detailed introduction to the application of the finite-difference, finite-element, and hybrid finite-difference-finite-element methods to the modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion. The text does not cover all topics and aspects of the methods. We focus on those to which we have contributed. (Author)

  2. Three-dimensional cellular automata as a model of a seismic fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gálvez, G; Muñoz, A

    2017-01-01

    The Earth's crust is broken into a series of plates, whose borders are the seismic fault lines and it is where most of the earthquakes occur. This plating system can in principle be described by a set of nonlinear coupled equations describing the motion of the plates, its stresses, strains and other characteristics. Such a system of equations is very difficult to solve, and nonlinear parts leads to a chaotic behavior, which is not predictable. In 1989, Bak and Tang presented an earthquake model based on the sand pile cellular automata. The model though simple, provides similar results to those observed in actual earthquakes. In this work the cellular automata in three dimensions is proposed as a best model to approximate a seismic fault. It is noted that the three-dimensional model reproduces similar properties to those observed in real seismicity, especially, the Gutenberg-Richter law. (paper)

  3. Using the job demands-resources model to predict burnout and performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.; Verbeke, W.

    2004-01-01

    The job demands-resources (JD-R) model was used to examine the relationship between job characteristics, burnout, and (other-ratings of) performance (N = 146). We hypothesized that job demands (e.g., work pressure and emotional demands) would be the most important antecedents of the exhaustion

  4. A MODEL FOR THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1919-64.

    Science.gov (United States)

    CAMPBELL, ROBERT; SIEGEL, BARRY N.

    STATISTICAL DEMAND ANALYSIS, WHICH EMPHASIZES THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVE PRICES AND REAL INCOME UPON THE DEMAND FOR A COMMODITY, WAS USED TO DEVELOP A MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION. THE STUDY IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT COLLEGE ENROLLMENT REPRESENTS THE PURCHASE OF BOTH A PRODUCER AND CONSUMER DURABLE, AND IS AN ACT OF INVESTMENT.…

  5. A compound Poisson EOQ model for perishable items with intermittent high and low demand periods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boxma, O.J.; Perry, D.; Stadje, W.; Zacks, S.

    2012-01-01

    We consider a stochastic EOQ-type model, with demand operating in a two-state random environment. This environment alternates between exponentially distributed periods of high demand and generally distributed periods of low demand. The inventory level starts at some level q, and decreases according

  6. A bottom-up approach of stochastic demand allocation in water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokker, E.J.M.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.; Beverloo, H.; Klein Arfman, M.; Van Dijk, J.C.

    2010-01-01

    An “all pipes” hydraulic model of a drinking water distribution system was constructed with two types of demand allocations. One is constructed with the conventional top-down approach, i.e. a demand multiplier pattern from the booster station is allocated to all demand nodes with a correction factor

  7. Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ruijgrok, K.; Davydenko, I.

    2012-01-01

    Freight transport demand is a demand derived from all the activities needed to move goods between locations of production to locations of consumption, including trade, logistics and transportation. A good representation of logistics in freight transport demand models allows us to predict the effects

  8. Time-lapse seismic waveform modelling and attribute analysis using hydromechanical models for a deep reservoir undergoing depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.

    2016-04-01

    Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and

  9. Application of probabilistic seismic hazard models with special calculation for the waste storage sites in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A.A.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic strong motion maps of Egypt are derived by applying Gumbel models and likelihood method to 8 earthquake source zones in Egypt and adjacent regions. Peak horizontal acceleration is mapped. Seismic data are collected from Helwan Catalog (1900-1997), regional catalog of earthquakes from the International Seismological Center (ISC,1910-1993) and earthquake data reports of US Department of International Geological Survey (USCGS, 1900-1994). Iso-seismic maps are also available for some events, which occurred in Egypt. Some earthquake source zones are well defined on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, but a lack of understanding of the near field effects of the large earthquakes prohibits accurate estimates of ground motion in their vicinity. Some source zones have no large-scale crustal features or zones of weakness that can explain the seismicity and must, therefore, be defined simply as concentrations of seismic activity with no geological or geophysical controls on the boundaries. Other source zones lack information on low-magnitude seismicity that would be representative of longer periods of time. Comparisons of the new probabilistic ground motion estimates in Egypt with equivalent estimates made in 1990 have been done. The new ground motion estimates are used to produce a new peak ground acceleration map to replace the 1990 peak acceleration zoning maps in the Building code of Egypt. (author)

  10. Evidence for a continental unstable triple junction as an alternate model for Vrancea seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besutiu, L.

    2002-01-01

    The Vrancea active seismic zone located in the bending area of Romanian Carpathians stands for a long time as a challenge to geoscientists all over the world. Deep seismicity in continental collision circumstances is rather rare and always constraints on dynamics of subduction. The pattern of the intermediate-depth seismicity in the Vrancea region suggests a confined prismatic nearly vertical seismic body. The small size and geometry of the seismic zone have made it difficult to interpret the kinematics of subduction and continental collision in the area. During the years, several models, almost all subduction-related, have more or less successfully tried to explain this phenomenon. The paper represents an attempt to explain the Vrancea intermediate depth seismicity starting from a new concept, as introduced by the plate tectonics theory: the triple junction. A continental unstable triple junction is proposed as an alternate model to explain the unusual seismicity in the Vrancea seismic area. Three tectonic plates / microplates seem to join in the region: East European Plate (EEP), Moesian microplate (MoP), and the Intra-Alpine microplate (IaP). Their edges are geophysically documented and their motion is evidenced. The differentiation in their relative velocities generated an unstable transform-transform-compression triple junction that determined the vertical collapse of the lithospheric segment to which the intermediate seismicity within Vrancea zone is associated. Three major plates' wedges bound the seismic body: Tornquist-Teissyere zone, Peceneaga-Camena fault, and Trans-Getica fault. Temperature accommodation phenomena associated to the sinking lithospheric body into the hotter upper mantle environment (such as convective cells, phase-transform processes, and devolatilization) could be responsible for the earthquakes occurrence. The problem of the missing subduction related volcanism within Vrancea triple junction (VTJ) area is definitely solved in the case

  11. A multivariate time series approach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott; Allen, Todd L; Thomas, Alun; Haug, Peter J; Welch, Shari J; Snow, Gregory L

    2009-02-01

    The goals of this investigation were to study the temporal relationships between the demands for key resources in the emergency department (ED) and the inpatient hospital, and to develop multivariate forecasting models. Hourly data were collected from three diverse hospitals for the year 2006. Descriptive analysis and model fitting were carried out using graphical and multivariate time series methods. Multivariate models were compared to a univariate benchmark model in terms of their ability to provide out-of-sample forecasts of ED census and the demands for diagnostic resources. Descriptive analyses revealed little temporal interaction between the demand for inpatient resources and the demand for ED resources at the facilities considered. Multivariate models provided more accurate forecasts of ED census and of the demands for diagnostic resources. Our results suggest that multivariate time series models can be used to reliably forecast ED patient census; however, forecasts of the demands for diagnostic resources were not sufficiently reliable to be useful in the clinical setting.

  12. Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

    2018-02-01

    Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

  13. Aseismic and seismic slip induced by fluid injection from poroelastic and rate-state friction modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Deng, K.; Harrington, R. M.; Clerc, F.

    2016-12-01

    Solid matrix stress change and pore pressure diffusion caused by fluid injection has been postulated as key factors for inducing earthquakes and aseismic slip on pre-existing faults. In this study, we have developed a numerical model that simulates aseismic and seismic slip in a rate-and-state friction framework with poroelastic stress perturbations from multi-stage hydraulic fracturing scenarios. We apply the physics-based model to the 2013-2015 earthquake sequences near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada, where three magnitude 4.5 earthquakes were potentially induced by nearby hydraulic fracturing activity. In particular, we use the relocated December 2013 seismicity sequence to approximate the fault orientation, and find the seismicity migration spatiotemporally correlate with the positive Coulomb stress changes calculated from the poroelastic model. When the poroelastic stress changes are introduced to the rate-state friction model, we find that slip on the fault evolves from aseismic to seismic in a manner similar to the onset of seismicity. For a 15-stage hydraulic fracturing that lasted for 10 days, modeled fault slip rate starts to accelerate after 3 days of fracking, and rapidly develops into a seismic event, which also temporally coincides with the onset of induced seismicity. The poroelastic stress perturbation and consequently fault slip rate continue to evolve and remain high for several weeks after hydraulic fracturing has stopped, which may explain the continued seismicity after shut-in. In a comparison numerical experiment, fault slip rate quickly decreases to the interseismic level when stress perturbations are instantaneously returned to zero at shut-in. Furthermore, when stress perturbations are removed just a few hours after the fault slip rate starts to accelerate (that is, hydraulic fracturing is shut down prematurely), only aseismic slip is observed in the model. Our preliminary results thus suggest the design of fracturing duration and flow

  14. Seismic tests on models of reinforced-concrete Category I buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, R.C.; Endebrock, E.G.; Dunwoody, W.E.; Bennett, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    The behavior of reinforced concrete (R/C), Category I noncontainment nuclear power plant structures subjected to seismic events of magnitude greater than used in their original design has been investigated using two sizes of scale models. Test results were analyzed to determine (1) maximum input for the response to remain linear/elastic; (2) changes in stiffness, damping, and modal frequency that are produced by seismic input greater than that causing linear elastic response; (3) changes in floor response spectra when the structure's response is nonlinear/inelastic; and (4) the magnitude of the seismic event necessary to fail (excessively crack) these structures. By constructing models of two sizes, it was possible to make two independent predictions of prototype behavior and to compare the results from the two models. 1 ref., 4 figs., 1 tab

  15. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  16. Homogenised constitutive model dedicated to reinforced concrete plates subjected to seismic solicitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combescure, Christelle

    2013-01-01

    Safety reassessments are periodically performed on the EDF nuclear power plants and the recent seismic reassessments leaded to the necessity of taking into account the non-linear behaviour of materials when modeling and simulating industrial structures of these power plants under seismic solicitations. A large proportion of these infrastructures is composed of reinforced concrete buildings, including reinforced concrete slabs and walls, and literature seems to be poor on plate modeling dedicated to seismic applications for this material. As for the few existing models dedicated to these specific applications, they present either a lack of dissipation energy in the material behaviour, or no micromechanical approach that justifies the parameters needed to properly describe the model. In order to provide a constitutive model which better represents the reinforced concrete plate behaviour under seismic loadings and whose parameters are easier to identify for the civil engineer, a constitutive model dedicated to reinforced concrete plates under seismic solicitations is proposed: the DHRC (Dissipative Homogenised Reinforced Concrete) model. Justified by a periodic homogenisation approach, this model includes two dissipative phenomena: damage of concrete matrix and internal sliding at the interface between steel rebar and surrounding concrete. An original coupling term between damage and sliding, resulting from the homogenisation process, induces a better representation of energy dissipation during the material degradation. The model parameters are identified from the geometric characteristics of the plate and a restricted number of material characteristics, allowing a very simple use of the model. Numerical validations of the DHRC model are presented, showing good agreement with experimental behaviour. A one dimensional simplification of the DHRC model is proposed, allowing the representation of reinforced concrete bars and simplified models of rods and wire mesh

  17. Predictability in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmstetter, AgnèS.; Sornette, Didier

    2003-10-01

    As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity on the basis of interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS). The ETAS model is constructed on a bare (unrenormalized) Omori law, the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks. For simplicity, we do not use the information on the spatial location of earthquakes and work only in the time domain. We demonstrate the essential role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source. We offer an analytical approach to account for the yet unobserved triggered seismicity adapted to the problem of forecasting future seismic rates at varying horizons from the present. Tests presented on synthetic catalogs validate strongly the importance of taking into account all the cascades of still unobserved triggered events in order to predict correctly the future level of seismicity beyond a few minutes. We find a strong predictability if one accepts to predict only a small fraction of the large-magnitude targets. Specifically, we find a prediction gain (defined as the ratio of the fraction of predicted events over the fraction of time in alarms) equal to 21 for a fraction of alarm of 1%, a target magnitude M ≥ 6, an update time of 0.5 days between two predictions, and for realistic parameters of the ETAS model. However, the probability gains degrade fast when one attempts to predict a larger fraction of the targets. This is because a significant fraction of events remain uncorrelated from past seismicity. This delineates the fundamental limits underlying forecasting skills, stemming from an intrinsic stochastic component in these interacting triggered seismicity models. Quantitatively, the fundamental

  18. A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

    2018-03-01

    The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

  19. THMC Modeling of EGS Reservoirs -- Continuum through Discontinuum Representations. Capturing Reservoir Stimulation, Evolution and Induced Seismicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsworth, Derek [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Izadi, Ghazal [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Gan, Quan [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Fang, Yi [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Taron, Josh [US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Sonnenthal, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-07-28

    This work has investigated the roles of effective stress induced by changes in fluid pressure, temperature and chemistry in contributing to the evolution of permeability and induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs. This work has developed continuum models [1] to represent the progress or seismicity during both stimulation [2] and production [3]. These methods have been used to resolve anomalous observations of induced seismicity at the Newberry Volcano demonstration project [4] through the application of modeling and experimentation. Later work then focuses on the occurrence of late stage seismicity induced by thermal stresses [5] including the codifying of the timing and severity of such responses [6]. Furthermore, mechanistic linkages between observed seismicity and the evolution of permeability have been developed using data from the Newberry project [7] and benchmarked against field injection experiments. Finally, discontinuum models [8] incorporating the roles of discrete fracture networks have been applied to represent stimulation and then thermal recovery for new arrangements of geothermal wells incorporating the development of flow manifolds [9] in order to increase thermal output and longevity in EGS systems.

  20. Viscoplastic discontinuum model of time-dependent fracture and seismicity effects in brittle rock

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Napier, JAL

    1997-10-01

    Full Text Available A model is proposed for the direct mechanistic simulation of seismic activity and stress transfer effects in deep level mines. The model uses a discontinuum viscoplastic formulation to relate the rate of slip on a crack to the shear stress acting...

  1. Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank

    2013-04-01

    In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source

  2. The demand-induced strain compensation model : renewed theoretical considerations and empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jonge, J.; Dormann, C.; van den Tooren, M.; Näswall, K.; Hellgren, J.; Sverke, M.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter presents a recently developed theoretical model on jobrelated stress and performance, the so-called Demand-Induced Strain Compensation (DISC) model. The DISC model predicts in general that adverse health effects of high job demands can best be compensated for by matching job resources

  3. A critical review of the Job demands-Resources model: Implications for improving work and health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaufeli, W.B.; Taris, T.W.

    2014-01-01

    The Job Demands-Resources model (JD-R model) became highly popular among researchers. The current version of the model proposes that high job demands lead to strain and health impairment (the health impairment process), and that high resources lead to increased motivation and higher productivity

  4. A Geo-referenced 3D model of the Juan de Fuca Slab and associated seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, J.L.; McCrory, P.A.; Oppenheimer, D.H.; Waldhauser, F.

    2011-01-01

    We present a Geographic Information System (GIS) of a new 3-dimensional (3D) model of the subducted Juan de Fuca Plate beneath western North America and associated seismicity of the Cascadia subduction system. The geo-referenced 3D model was constructed from weighted control points that integrate depth information from hypocenter locations and regional seismic velocity studies. We used the 3D model to differentiate earthquakes that occur above the Juan de Fuca Plate surface from earthquakes that occur below the plate surface. This GIS project of the Cascadia subduction system supersedes the one previously published by McCrory and others (2006). Our new slab model updates the model with new constraints. The most significant updates to the model include: (1) weighted control points to incorporate spatial uncertainty, (2) an additional gridded slab surface based on the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) Surface program which constructs surfaces based on splines in tension (see expanded description below), (3) double-differenced hypocenter locations in northern California to better constrain slab location there, and (4) revised slab shape based on new hypocenter profiles that incorporate routine depth uncertainties as well as data from new seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction studies. We also provide a 3D fly-through animation of the model for use as a visualization tool.

  5. Necessity of using heterogeneous ellipsoidal Earth model with terrain to calculate co-seismic effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Huihong; Zhang, Bei; Zhang, Huai; Huang, Luyuan; Qu, Wulin; Shi, Yaolin

    2016-04-01

    Co-seismic deformation and stress changes, which reflect the elasticity of the earth, are very important in the earthquake dynamics, and also to other issues, such as the evaluation of the seismic risk, fracture process and triggering of earthquake. Lots of scholars have researched the dislocation theory and co-seismic deformation and obtained the half-space homogeneous model, half-space stratified model, spherical stratified model, and so on. Especially, models of Okada (1992) and Wang (2003, 2006) are widely applied in the research of calculating co-seismic and post-seismic effects. However, since both semi-infinite space model and layered model do not take the role of the earth curvature or heterogeneity or topography into consideration, there are large errors in calculating the co-seismic displacement of a great earthquake in its impacted area. Meanwhile, the computational methods of calculating the co-seismic strain and stress are different between spherical model and plane model. Here, we adopted the finite element method which could well deal with the complex characteristics (such as anisotropy, discontinuities) of rock and different conditions. We use the mash adaptive technique to automatically encrypt the mesh at the fault and adopt the equivalent volume force replace the dislocation source, which can avoid the difficulty in handling discontinuity surface with conventional (Zhang et al., 2015). We constructed an earth model that included earth's layered structure and curvature, the upper boundary was set as a free surface and the core-mantle boundary was set under buoyancy forces. Firstly, based on the precision requirement, we take a testing model - - a strike-slip fault (the length of fault is 500km and the width is 50km, and the slippage is 10m) for example. Because of the curvature of the Earth, some errors certainly occur in plane coordinates just as previous studies (Dong et al., 2014; Sun et al., 2012). However, we also found that: 1) the co-seismic

  6. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  7. Optimized management of a distributed demand response aggregation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prelle, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The desire to increase the share of renewable energies in the energy mix leads to an increase in share of volatile and non-controllable energy and makes it difficult to meet the supply-demand balance. A solution to manage anyway theses energies in the current electrical grid is to deploy new energy storage and demand response systems across the country to counterbalance under or over production. In order to integrate all these energies systems to the supply and demand balance process, there are gathered together within a virtual flexibility aggregation power plant which is then seen as a virtual power plant. As for any other power plant, it is necessary to compute its production plan. Firstly, we propose in this PhD thesis an architecture and management method for an aggregation power plant composed of any type of energies systems. Then, we propose algorithms to compute the production plan of any types of energy systems satisfying all theirs constraints. Finally, we propose an approach to compute the production plan of the aggregation power plant in order to maximize its financial profit while complying with all the constraints of the grid. (author)

  8. Numerical modeling of landslides and generated seismic waves: The Bingham Canyon Mine landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miallot, H.; Mangeney, A.; Capdeville, Y.; Hibert, C.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides are important natural hazards and key erosion processes. They create long period surface waves that can be recorded by regional and global seismic networks. The seismic signals are generated by acceleration/deceleration of the mass sliding over the topography. They consist in a unique and powerful tool to detect, characterize and quantify the landslide dynamics. We investigate here the processes at work during the two massive landslides that struck the Bingham Canyon Mine on the 10th April 2013. We carry a combined analysis of the generated seismic signals and the landslide processes computed with a 3D modeling on a complex topography. Forces computed by broadband seismic waveform inversion are used to constrain the study and particularly the force-source and the bulk dynamic. The source time function are obtained by a 3D model (Shaltop) where rheological parameters can be adjusted. We first investigate the influence of the initial shape of the sliding mass which strongly affects the whole landslide dynamic. We also see that the initial shape of the source mass of the first landslide constrains pretty well the second landslide source mass. We then investigate the effect of a rheological parameter, the frictional angle, that strongly influences the resulted computed seismic source function. We test here numerous friction laws as the frictional Coulomb law and a velocity-weakening friction law. Our results show that the force waveform fitting the observed data is highly variable depending on these different choices.

  9. NEESROCK: A Physical and Numerical Modeling Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, K. N.; Wartman, J.; Keefer, D. K.; Maclaughlin, M.; Adams, S.; Arnold, L.; Gibson, M.; Smith, S.

    2013-12-01

    Worldwide, seismically induced rock-slope failures have been responsible for approximately 30% of the most significant landslide catastrophes of the past century. They are among the most common, dangerous, and still today, least understood of all seismic hazards. Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure: Mechanisms and Prediction (NEESROCK) is a major research initiative that fully integrates physical modeling (geotechnical centrifuge) and advanced numerical simulations (discrete element modeling) to investigate the fundamental mechanisms governing the stability of rock slopes during earthquakes. The research is part of the National Science Foundation-supported Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Research (NEES) program. With its focus on fractures and rock materials, the project represents a significant departure from the traditional use of the geotechnical centrifuge for studying soil, and pushes the boundaries of physical modeling in new directions. In addition to advancing the fundamental understanding of the rock-slope failure process under seismic conditions, the project is developing improved rock-slope failure assessment guidelines, analysis procedures, and predictive tools. Here, we provide an overview of the project, present experimental and numerical modeling results, discuss special considerations for the use of synthetic rock materials in physical modeling, and address the suitability of discrete element modeling for simulating the dynamic rock-slope failure process.

  10. Modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand: The case of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asadoorian, Malcolm O.; Eckaus, Richard S.; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within China. It takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and regional data sets in order to estimate temperature, as well as price and income elasticities of electricity demand. The estimated positive temperature/electric power feedback implies a continually increasing use of energy to produce electric power which, in China, is primarily based on coal. In the absence of countervailing measures, this will contribute to increased emissions, increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and increases in greenhouse warming

  11. Demand and welfare effects in recreational travel models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hellström, Jörgen; Nordström, Leif Jonas

    2012-01-01

    for the households welfare loss. Approximatingthe welfare loss by the change in consumer surplus, accounting for the positiveeffect from longer stays, imposes a lower bound on the households welfare loss. The differencein the estimated loss measures, from the considered CO2 tax reform, is about 20%. Thisemphasizes......In this paper we present a non-linear demand system for households’ joint choice of numberof trips and days to spend at a destination. The approach, which facilitates welfare analysis of exogenous policy and price changes, is used empirically to study the effects of an increased CO2 tax...... the importance of accounting for substitutions toward longer stays in traveldemand policy evaluations....

  12. Pengembangan Model Economic Production Quantity (EPQ dengan Sinkronisasi Demand Kontinu dan Diskrit Secara Simultan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurike Oktavia

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The most popular inventory model to determine production lot size is Economic Production Quantity (EPQ. It shows enterprise how to minimize total production cost by reducing inventory cost. But, three main parameters in EPQ which are demand, machine set up cost, and holding cost, are not suitable to solve issues nowadays. When an enterprise has two types of demand, continue and discrete demand, the basic EPQ would be no longer useful. Demand continues comes from a customer who wants their needs to be fulfilled every time per unit time, while the fulfillment of demand discrete is at a fixed interval of time. A literature review is done by writers to observe other formulation of EPQ model. As there is no other research can be found which adopt this topic, this study tries to develop EPQ model considering two types of demand simultaneously.

  13. Seismic assessment of Kozloduy VVER 440, Model 230 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, P.; Baltus, R.; Yanev, P.; Campbell, R.

    1991-01-01

    Excluding system design deficiency relative to US and Western Europe standards, it was found that the plant has many seismic vulnerabilities similar to those that existed in many of the US plants prior to about 1979 when the Systematic Evaluation Program was initiated. The primary coolant system has been substantially upgraded after the 1977 Vrancea earthquake. Other upgrades have been made to weak elements in the ECCS and electrical systems. There are still a number of components that could likely survive the currently defined Safe Shutdown Earthquake of 0.1 g but which would not meet current design standards. Many of the weakest components could be upgraded at a moderate cost to withstand a seismic event exceeding 0.1 g. Current studies of the site seismicity lean toward a higher peak ground acceleration and increased amplification of building motion, thus backfits that have been accomplished may become marginal for newly defined loads. However the proper consideration of soil structure interaction and detailed structural analysis using less conservative modeling assumptions, could mitigate the impact of increasing the seismic input and limit the amount of reinforcement required. In the interim, substantial improvements to seismic safety could be accomplished by simple, inexpensive modifications to equipment anchorage and some achievable improvements to connection detail of the precast concrete structures. (author)

  14. A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice

    2018-05-01

    A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

  15. Testing the strain hypothesis of the Demand Control Model to explain severe bullying at work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notelaers, G.; Baillien, E.; de Witte, H.; Einarsen, S.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2013-01-01

    Workplace bullying has often been attributed to work-related stress, and has been linked to the Job Demand Control Model. The current study aims to further these studies by testing the model for bullying in a heterogeneous sample and by using latent class (LC)-analyses to define different demands

  16. A multigroup analysis of the job demands-resources model in four home care organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.; Taris, A.W. (Toon); Schaufeli, W.B.; Schreurs, Paul J.G.

    2003-01-01

    The job demands-resources (JD-R) model was tested in a study among 3,092 employees working in 1 of 4 different home care organizations. The central assumption in the model is that burnout develops when certain job demands are high and when job resources are limited because such negative working

  17. A train dispatching model based on fuzzy passenger demand forecasting during holidays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Dou Dou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Purpose: The train dispatching is a crucial issue in the train operation adjustment when passenger flow outbursts. During holidays, the train dispatching is to meet passenger demand to the greatest extent, and ensure safety, speediness and punctuality of the train operation. In this paper, a fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model is put up, then a train dispatching optimization model is established based on passenger demand so as to evacuate stranded passengers effectively during holidays. Design/methodology/approach: First, the complex features and regularity of passenger flow during holidays are analyzed, and then a fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model is put forward based on the fuzzy set theory and time series theory. Next, the bi-objective of the train dispatching optimization model is to minimize the total operation cost of the train dispatching and unserved passenger volume during holidays. Finally, the validity of this model is illustrated with a case concerned with the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in China. Findings: The case study shows that the fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model can predict outcomes more precisely than ARIMA model. Thus train dispatching optimization plan proves that a small number of trains are able to serve unserved passengers reasonably and effectively. Originality/value: On the basis of the passenger demand predictive values, the train dispatching optimization model is established, which enables train dispatching to meet passenger demand in condition that passenger flow outbursts, so as to maximize passenger demand by offering the optimal operation plan.

  18. Study on vertical seismic response model of BWR-type reactor building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konno, T.; Motohashi, S.; Izumi, M.; Iizuka, S.

    1993-01-01

    A study on advanced seismic design for LWR has been carried out by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), under the sponsorship of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan. As a part of the study, it has been investigated to construct an accurate analytical model of reactor buildings for a seismic response analysis, which can reasonably represent dynamic characteristics of the building. In Japan, vibration models of reactor buildings for horizontal ground motion have been studied and examined through many simulation analyses for forced vibration tests and earthquake observations of actual buildings. And now it is possible to establish a reliable horizontal vibration model on the basis of multi-lumped mass and spring model. However, vertical vibration models have not been so much studied as horizontal models, due to less observed data for vertical motions. In this paper, the vertical seismic response models of a BWR-type reactor building including soil-structure interaction effect are numerically studied, by comparing the dynamic characteristics of (1) three dimensional finite element model, (2) multi-stick lumped mass model with a flexible base-mat, (3) multi-stick lumped mass model with a rigid base-mat and (4) single-stick lumped mass model. In particular, the BWR-type reactor building has the long span truss roof which is considered to be one of the critical members to vertical excitation. The modelings of the roof trusses are also studied

  19. Three-dimensional crustal model of the Moravo-Silesian region obtained by seismic tomography

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Růžek, Bohuslav; Holub, Karel; Rušajová, Jana

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2011), s. 87-107 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA200120701; GA MŽP SB/630/3/02; GA ČR GA205/03/0999 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515; CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : seismic tomography * 3D seismic velocity model * Moravo-Silesian region Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.700, year: 2011

  20. Beam model for seismic analysis of complex shear wall structure based on the strain energy equivalence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Mahajan, S.C.; Suzuki, Kohei

    1997-01-01

    A nuclear reactor building structure consists of shear walls with complex geometry, beams and columns. The complexity of the structure is explained in the section Introduction. Seismic analysis of the complex reactor building structure using the continuum mechanics approach may produce good results but this method is very difficult to apply. Hence, the finite element approach is found to be an useful technique for solving the dynamic equations of the reactor building structure. In this approach, the model which uses finite elements such as brick, plate and shell elements may produce accurate results. However, this model also poses some difficulties which are explained in the section Modeling Techniques. Therefore, seismic analysis of complex structures is generally carried out using a lumped mass beam model. This model is preferred because of its simplicity and economy. Nevertheless, mathematical modeling of a shear wall structure as a beam requires specialized skill and a thorough understanding of the structure. For accurate seismic analysis, it is necessary to model more realistically the stiffness, mass and damping. In linear seismic analysis, modeling of the mass and damping may pose few problems compared to modeling the stiffness. When used to represent a complex structure, the stiffness of the beam is directly related to the shear wall section properties such as area, shear area and moment of inertia. Various beam models which are classified based on the method of stiffness evaluation are also explained under the section Modeling Techniques. In the section Case Studies the accuracy and simplicity of the beam models are explained. Among various beam models, the one which evaluates the stiffness using strain energy equivalence proves to be the simplest and most accurate method for modeling the complex shear wall structure. (author)

  1. Combined rock-physical modelling and seismic inversion techniques for characterisation of stacked sandstone reservoir

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Justiniano, A.; Jaya, Y.; Diephuis, G.; Veenhof, R.; Pringle, T.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the study is to characterise the Triassic massive stacked sandstone deposits of the Main Buntsandstein Subgroup at Block Q16 located in the West Netherlands Basin. The characterisation was carried out through combining rock-physics modelling and seismic inversion techniques. The

  2. Results from an acoustic modelling study of seismic airgun survey noise in Queen Charlotte Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacGillivray, A.O.; Chapman, N.R. [Victoria Univ., BC (Canada). School of Earth and Ocean Sciences

    2005-12-07

    An acoustic modelling study was conducted to examine seismic survey noise propagation in the Queen Charlotte Basin (QCB) and better understand the physical aspects of sound transmission. The study results are intended to help determine the potential physiological and behavioural effects of airgun noise on marine mammals and fish. The scope of the study included a numerical simulation of underwater sound transmission in QCB in areas where oil and gas exploration activities may be conducted; a forecast of received noise levels by combining acoustic transmission loss computations with acoustic source levels representative of seismic exploration activity and, the use of received forecasts to estimate zones of impact for marine mammals. The critical environmental parameters in the QCB are the bathymetry of the ocean, the sound speed profile in the water and the geoacoustic profile of the seabed. The RAM acoustic propagation model developed by the United States Naval Research Laboratory was used to compute acoustic transmission loss in the QCB. The source level and directionality of the seismic array was determined by a full-waveform array source signature model. This modelling study of noise propagation from seismic surveys revealed several key findings. Among them, it showed that received noise levels in the water are affected by the source location, array orientation and the shape of the sound speed profile with respect to water depth. It also showed that noise levels are lowest in shallow bathymetry. 30 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs.

  3. co-seismic grace gravity based 11-layered 3-d thrust fault model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    30

    It honours co-seismic deformation of ocean surface, ocean ... has caused great damage (Sumatra earthquake 2004 Wikipedia) when the Indian Plate ..... Gokula, A P, Sastry R G (2015a) Gravitational attraction of a vertical pyramid model of flat ... Journal. 14, 1-21. Lay T, Kanamori H, Ammon CJ, Nettles M, Ward SN, Aster ...

  4. Model Based Beamforming and Bayesian Inversion Signal Processing Methods for Seismic Localization of Underground Source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oh, Geok Lian

    properties such as the elastic wave speeds and soil densities. One processing method is casting the estimation problem into an inverse problem to solve for the unknown material parameters. The forward model for the seismic signals used in the literatures include ray tracing methods that consider only...... density values of the discretized ground medium, which leads to time-consuming computations and instability behaviour of the inversion process. In addition, the geophysics inverse problem is generally ill-posed due to non-exact forward model that introduces errors. The Bayesian inversion method through...... the first arrivals of the reflected compressional P-waves from the subsurface structures, or 3D elastic wave models that model all the seismic wave components. The ray tracing forward model formulation is linear, whereas the full 3D elastic wave model leads to a nonlinear inversion problem. In this Ph...

  5. Demand and welfare effects in recreational travel models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hellström, Jörgen; Nordström, Leif Jonas

    for the households welfare loss. Approximating the welfare loss by the change in consumer surplus, accounting for the positive e¤ect from longer stays, imposes a lower bound on the households welfare loss. From a distributional point of view, the results reveal that the CO2 tax reform is regressive, in the sense......In this paper we present a non-linear demand system for households.joint choice of number of trips and days to spend at a destination. The approach, which facilitates welfare analysis of exogenous policy and price changes, is used empirically to study the e¤ects of an increased CO2 tax...... that low income households carry a larger part of the tax burden....

  6. High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenna, Eoghan; Thomson, Murray

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A major new version of CREST’s demand model is presented. • Simulates electrical and thermal domestic demands at high-resolution. • Integrated structure captures appropriate time-coincidence of variables. • Suitable for low-voltage network and urban energy analyses. • Open-source development in Excel VBA freely available for download. - Abstract: This paper describes the extension of CREST’s existing electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal–electrical demand model. The principle novelty of the model is its integrated structure such that the timing of thermal and electrical output variables are appropriately correlated. The model has been developed primarily for low-voltage network analysis and the model’s ability to account for demand diversity is of critical importance for this application. The model, however, can also serve as a basis for modelling domestic energy demands within the broader field of urban energy systems analysis. The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model, a solar thermal collector model, and new thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls and gas boilers. The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets. The integrated model remains an open-source development in Excel VBA and is freely available to download for users to configure and extend, or to incorporate into other models.

  7. Seismic modeling of multidimensional heterogeneity scales of Mallik gas hydrate reservoirs, Northwest Territories of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jun-Wei; Bellefleur, Gilles; Milkereit, Bernd

    2009-07-01

    In hydrate-bearing sediments, the velocity and attenuation of compressional and shear waves depend primarily on the spatial distribution of hydrates in the pore space of the subsurface lithologies. Recent characterizations of gas hydrate accumulations based on seismic velocity and attenuation generally assume homogeneous sedimentary layers and neglect effects from large- and small-scale heterogeneities of hydrate-bearing sediments. We present an algorithm, based on stochastic medium theory, to construct heterogeneous multivariable models that mimic heterogeneities of hydrate-bearing sediments at the level of detail provided by borehole logging data. Using this algorithm, we model some key petrophysical properties of gas hydrates within heterogeneous sediments near the Mallik well site, Northwest Territories, Canada. The modeled density, and P and S wave velocities used in combination with a modified Biot-Gassmann theory provide a first-order estimate of the in situ volume of gas hydrate near the Mallik 5L-38 borehole. Our results suggest a range of 528 to 768 × 106 m3/km2 of natural gas trapped within hydrates, nearly an order of magnitude lower than earlier estimates which did not include effects of small-scale heterogeneities. Further, the petrophysical models are combined with a 3-D finite difference modeling algorithm to study seismic attenuation due to scattering and leaky mode propagation. Simulations of a near-offset vertical seismic profile and cross-borehole numerical surveys demonstrate that attenuation of seismic energy may not be directly related to the intrinsic attenuation of hydrate-bearing sediments but, instead, may be largely attributed to scattering from small-scale heterogeneities and highly attenuate leaky mode propagation of seismic waves through larger-scale heterogeneities in sediments.

  8. Experimental processing of a model data set using Geobit seismic software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Sang Yong [Korea Inst. of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-12-01

    A seismic data processing software, Geobit, has been developed and is continuously updated to implement newer processing techniques and to support more hardware platforms. Geobit is intended to support all Unix platforms ranging from PC to CRAY. The current version supports two platform, i.e., PC/Linux and Sun Sparc based Sun OS 4.1.x. PC/Linux attracted geophysicists in some universities trying to install Geobit in their laboratories to be used as their research tool. However, one of the problem is the difficulty in getting the seismic data. The primary reason is its huge volume. The field data is too bulky to fit their relatively small storage media, such as PC disk. To solve the problem, KIGAM released a model seismic data set via ftp.kigam.re.kr. This study aims two purposes. The first one is testing Geobit software for its suitability in seismic data processing. The test includes reproducing the model through the seismic data processing. If it fails to reproduce the original model, the software is considered buggy and incomplete. However, if it can successfully reproduce the input model, I would be proud of what I have accomplished for the last few years in writing Geobit. The second purpose is to give a guide on Geobit usage by providing an example set of job files needed to process a given data. This example will help scientists lacking Geobit experience to concentrate on their study more easily. Once they know the Geobit processing technique, and later on Geobit programming, they can implement their own processing idea, contributing newer technologies to Geobit. The complete Geobit job files needed to process the model data is written, in the following job sequence: (1) data loading, (2) CDP sort, (3) decon analysis, (4) velocity analysis, (5) decon verification, (6) stack, (7) filter analysis, (8) filtered stack, (9) time migration, (10) depth migration. The control variables in the job files are discussed. (author). 10 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Realistic modeling of seismic input for megacities and large urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Alvarez, Leonardo; Aoudia, Abdelkrim

    2002-06-01

    The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk assessment, and hazard mapping, in connection with seismic activity and man-induced vibrations. The definition of realistic seismic input has been obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. The innovative modeling technique, that constitutes the common tool to the entire project, takes into account source, propagation and local site effects. This is done using first principles of physics about wave generation and propagation in complex media, and does not require to resort to convolutive approaches, that have been proven to be quite unreliable, mainly when dealing with complex geological structures, the most interesting from the practical point of view. In fact, several techniques that have been proposed to empirically estimate the site effects using observations convolved with theoretically computed signals corresponding to simplified models, supply reliable information about the site response to non-interfering seismic phases. They are not adequate in most of the real cases, when the seismic sequel is formed by several interfering waves. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to reliably estimate the amplification effects even in complex geological structures, exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, palaeoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important base of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios that represent a valid and economic tool for the seismic microzonation. This knowledge can be very fruitfully used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant constructions and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, and, therefore

  10. Modeling the effects of structure on seismic anisotropy in the Chester gneiss dome, southeast Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saif, S.; Brownlee, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Compositional and structural heterogeneity in the continental crust are factors that contribute to the complex expression of crustal seismic anisotropy. Understanding deformation and flow in the crust using seismic anisotropy has thus proven difficult. Seismic anisotropy is affected by rock microstructure and mineralogy, and a number of studies have begun to characterize the full elastic tensors of crustal rocks in an attempt to increase our understanding of these intrinsic factors. However, there is still a large gap in length-scale between laboratory characterization on the scale of centimeters and seismic wavelengths on the order of kilometers. To address this length-scale gap we are developing a 3D crustal model that will help us determine the effects of rotating laboratory-scale elastic tensors into field-scale structures. The Chester gneiss dome in southeast Vermont is our primary focus. The model combines over 2000 structural data points from field measurements and published USGS structural data with elastic tensors of Chester dome rocks derived from electron backscatter diffraction data. We created a uniformly spaced grid by averaging structural measurements together in equally spaced grid boxes. The surface measurements are then projected into the third dimension using existing subsurface interpretations. A measured elastic tensor for the specific rock type is rotated according to its unique structural input at each point in the model. The goal is to use this model to generate artificial seismograms using existing numerical wave propagation codes. Once completed, the model input can be varied to examine the effects of different subsurface structure interpretations, as well as heterogeneity in rock composition and elastic tensors. Our goal is to be able to make predictions for how specific structures will appear in seismic data, and how that appearance changes with variations in rock composition.

  11. A new approach to integrate seismic and production data in reservoir models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouenes, A.; Chawathe, A.; Weiss, W. [New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    A great deal of effort is devoted to reducing the uncertainties in reservoir modeling. For example, seismic properties are used to improve the characterization of interwell properties by providing porosity maps constrained to seismic impedance. Another means to reduce uncertainties is to constrain the reservoir model to production data. This paper describes a new approach where the production and seismic data are simultaneously used to reduce the uncertainties. In this new approach, the primary geologic parameter that controls reservoir properties is identified. Next, the geophysical parameter that is sensitive to the dominant geologic parameter is determined. Then the geology and geophysics are linked using analytic correlations. Unfortunately, the initial guess resulted in a reservoir model that did not match the production history. Since the time required for trial and error matching of production history is exorbitant, an automatic history matching method based on a fast optimization method was used to find the correlating parameters. This new approach was illustrated with an actual field in the Williston Basin. Upscalling problems do not arise since the scale is imposed by the size of the seismic bin (66m, 219 ft) which is the size of the simulator gridblocks.

  12. Two-dimensional horizontal model seismic test and analysis for HTGR core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, Takeshi; Honma, Toshiaki.

    1988-05-01

    The resistance against earthquakes of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) core with block-type fuels is not fully ascertained yet. Seismic studies must be made if such a reactor plant is to be installed in areas with frequent earthquakes. The paper presented the test results of seismic behavior of a half scale two-dimensional horizontal slice core model and analysis. The following is a summary of the more important results. (1) When the core is subjected to the single axis excitation and simultaneous two-axis excitations to the core across-corners, it has elliptical motion. The core stays lumped motion at the low excitation frequencies. (2) When the load is placed on side fixed reflector blocks from outside to the core center, the core displacement and reflector impact reaction force decrease. (3) The maximum displacement occurs at simultaneous two-axis excitations. The maximum displacement occurs at the single axis excitation to the core across-flats. (4) The results of two-dimensional horizontal slice core model was compared with the results of two-dimensional vertical one. It is clarified that the seismic response of actual core can be predicted from the results of two-dimensional vertical slice core model. (5) The maximum reflector impact reaction force for seismic waves was below 60 percent of that for sinusoidal waves. (6) Vibration behavior and impact response are in good agreement between test and analysis. (author)

  13. Joint inversion of seismic refraction and resistivity data using layered models - applications to hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhojuntti, N. G.; Kamm, J.

    2010-12-01

    We present a layered-model approach to joint inversion of shallow seismic refraction and resistivity (DC) data, which we believe is a seldom tested method of addressing the problem. This method has been developed as we believe that for shallow sedimentary environments (roughly fairly simple 2D geometries, mainly for checking the validity of the calculations. The inversion generally converges towards the correct solution, although there could be stability problems if the starting model is too erroneous. We have also applied the code to field data from seismic refraction and multi-electrode resistivity measurements at typical sand-gravel groundwater reservoirs. The tests are promising, as the calculated depths agree fairly well with information from drilling and the velocity and resistivity values appear reasonable. Current work includes better regularization of the inversion as well as defining individual weight factors for the different datasets, as the present algorithm tends to constrain the depths mainly by using the seismic data. More complex synthetic examples will also be tested, including models addressing the seismic hidden-layer problem.

  14. Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

    2011-01-01

    Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

  15. A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa O.

    2003-01-01

    Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms, such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm, involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than th...

  16. A single product perishing inventory model with demand interaction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper describes a single perishing product inventory model in which ... continuous review inventory models have been studied recently by Yadavalli et al ...... stochastic inventory system with lost sales, Stochastic Analysis and Applications ...

  17. Modeling Supermarket Refrigeration Systems for Demand-Side Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiei, Seyed Ehsan; Rasmussen, Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of supermarket refrigeration systems for supervisory control in the smart grid is presented in this paper. A modular modeling approach is proposed in which each module is modeled and identified separately. The focus of the work is on estimating the power consumption of the system while...

  18. Mindfulness as a personal resource to reduce work stress in the job demands-resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover, Steven L; Teo, Stephen T T; Pick, David; Roche, Maree

    2017-10-01

    Based on the job demands-resources (JD-R) model, this study examines the different ways that the personal resource of mindfulness reduces stress. Structural equation modeling based on data from 415 Australian nurses shows that mindfulness relates directly and negatively to work stress and perceptions of emotional demands as well as buffering the relation of emotional demands on psychological stress. This study contributes to the literature by employing empirical analysis to the task of unravelling how personal resources function within the JD-R model. It also introduces mindfulness as a personal resource in the JD-R model. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.

  20. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  1. Modelling of Sudan’s Energy Supply, Transformation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A. Rabah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to develop energy flow diagram (Sankey diagram of Sudan for the base year 2014. The developed Sankey diagram is the first of its kind in Sudan. The available energy balance for the base year 2012 is a simple line draw and did not count the energy supply by private and mixed sectors such as sugar and oil industries and marine and civil aviation. The private and mixed sectors account for about 7% of the national grid electric power. Four energy modules are developed: resources, transformation, demand, and export and import modules. The data are obtained from relevant Sudanese ministries and directorates and Sudan Central Bank. “e!Sankey 4 pro” software is used to develop the Sankey diagram. The main primary types of energy in Sudan are oil, hydro, biomass, and renewable energy. Sudan has a surplus of gasoline, petroleum coke, and biomass and deficit in electric power, gasoil, jet oil, and LPG. The surplus of gasoline is exported; however, the petroleum coke is kept as reserve. The deficit is covered by import. The overall useful energy is 76% and the loss is 24%. The useful energy is distributed among residential (38%, transportation (33%, industry (12%, services (16%, and agriculture (1% sectors.

  2. One-dimensional modeling of thermal energy produced in a seismic fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konga, Guy Pascal; Koumetio, Fidèle; Yemele, David; Olivier Djiogang, Francis

    2017-12-01

    Generally, one observes an anomaly of temperature before a big earthquake. In this paper, we established the expression of thermal energy produced by friction forces between the walls of a seismic fault while considering the dynamic of a one-dimensional spring-block model. It is noted that, before the rupture of a seismic fault, displacements are caused by microseisms. The curves of variation of this thermal energy with time show that, for oscillatory and aperiodic displacement, the thermal energy is accumulated in the same way. The study reveals that thermal energy as well as temperature increases abruptly after a certain amount of time. We suggest that the corresponding time is the start of the anomaly of temperature observed which can be considered as precursory effect of a big seism. We suggest that the thermal energy can heat gases and dilate rocks until they crack. The warm gases can then pass through the cracks towards the surface. The cracks created by thermal energy can also contribute to the rupture of the seismic fault. We also suggest that the theoretical model of thermal energy, produced in seismic fault, associated with a large quantity of experimental data may help in the prediction of earthquakes.

  3. Realistic modelling of the seismic input: Site effects and parametric studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-11-01

    We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation, showing the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the framework of the EC project 'Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges' (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. The definition of the seismic input at the Warth bridge site, i.e. the determination of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake with a given magnitude and epicentral distance from the site, has been done following a theoretical approach. In order to perform an accurate and realistic estimate of site effects and of differential motion it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters, in realistic geological structures. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different sources and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of the reach of stochastic models, at a very low cost/benefit ratio. (author)

  4. Energy Demand Modeling Methodology of Key State Transitions of Turning Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun Jia

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy demand modeling of machining processes is the foundation of energy optimization. Energy demand of machining state transition is integral to the energy requirements of the machining process. However, research focus on energy modeling of state transition is scarce. To fill this gap, an energy demand modeling methodology of key state transitions of the turning process is proposed. The establishment of an energy demand model of state transition could improve the accuracy of the energy model of the machining process, which also provides an accurate model and reliable data for energy optimization of the machining process. Finally, case studies were conducted on a CK6153i CNC lathe, the results demonstrating that predictive accuracy with the proposed method is generally above 90% for the state transition cases.

  5. A model for estimation of the demand for on-street parking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir; Pilegaard, Ninette

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a stylized econometric model for the demand for on-street parking with focus on estimation of the elasticity of demand with respect to the full cost of parking. The full cost of parking consists of a parking fee and the cost of searching for a vacant parking space (cruising......). The cost of cruising is usually unobserved. Ignoring this issue implies a downward bias of the elasticity of demand with respect to the total cost of parking since the cost of cruising depends on the number of cars parked. We also demonstrate that, even when the cost of cruising is unobserved, the demand...

  6. Demand, credit and macroeconomic dynamics: A microsimulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijers, H.H.M.; Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that

  7. The Job Demands-Resources model: challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demerouti, E.; Bakker, A.B.

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands–Resources (JD–R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD–R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and

  8. A model to assess water tariffs as part of water demand management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: water demand management, price elasticity, change in water tariff, block tariff, WC/WDM model. INTRODUCTION ... ever developed for a 6-block pricing structure and allows for limited available input data from ..... Payment Strategies and Price Elasticity of Demand for Water for. Different revenue Groups in Three ...

  9. Explaining Employees' Evaluations of Organizational Change with the Job-Demands Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, I. J. Hetty; Bakker, Arnold B.; Euwema, Martin C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Departing from the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, the paper examined the relationship between job demands and resources on the one hand, and employees' evaluations of organizational change on the other hand. Design/methodology/approach: Participants were 818 faculty members within six faculties of a Dutch university. Data were…

  10. An EOQ Model with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Deterioration and Price-Dependent Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Sushanta; Mukherjee, R. N.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

    2005-01-01

    An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

  11. Air gun seismic effects on larvae and fry offshore; modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstroem, S.

    1993-04-01

    This report presents results from modeling and simulation of air gun seismic effects on fish and fry. A model has been developed to describe the behavior of fishes when a seismic ship is approaching and passes by the volume of residence of the fishes. The swimming capacity, the reaction to acoustic stimuli, the hearing threshold and the vertical distribution of the fishes have been included in the model. The model has been applied on cod fishes of length 25 and 350 mm. For realistic vertical distributions the big cod fishes will get away from the region near the boat where the probability for a mortal damage is greatest. 121 refs., 40 figs., 13 tabs

  12. 3D geological to geophysical modelling and seismic wave propagation simulation: a case study from the Lalor Lake VMS (Volcanogenic Massive Sulphides) mining camp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, Khalid; Bellefleur, Gilles

    2014-05-01

    The global demand for base metals, uranium and precious metals has been pushing mineral explorations at greater depth. Seismic techniques and surveys have become essential in finding and extracting mineral rich ore bodies, especially for deep VMS mining camps. Geophysical parameters collected from borehole logs and laboratory measurements of core samples provide preliminary information about the nature and type of subsurface lithologic units. Alteration halos formed during the hydrothermal alteration process contain ore bodies, which are of primary interests among geologists and mining industries. It is known that the alteration halos are easier to detect than the ore bodies itself. Many 3D geological models are merely projection of 2D surface geology based on outcrop inspections and geochemical analysis of a small number of core samples collected from the area. Since a large scale 3D multicomponent seismic survey can be prohibitively expensive, performance analysis of such geological models can be helpful in reducing exploration costs. In this abstract, we discussed challenges and constraints encountered in geophysical modelling of ore bodies and surrounding geologic structures from the available coarse 3D geological models of the Lalor Lake mining camp, located in northern Manitoba, Canada. Ore bodies in the Lalor lake VMS camp are rich in gold, zinc, lead and copper, and have an approximate weight of 27 Mt. For better understanding of physical parameters of these known ore bodies and potentially unknown ones at greater depth, we constructed a fine resolution 3D seismic model with dimensions: 2000 m (width), 2000 m (height), and 1500 m (vertical depth). Seismic properties (P-wave, S-wave velocities, and density) were assigned based on a previous rock properties study of the same mining camp. 3D finite-difference elastic wave propagation simulation was performed in the model using appropriate parameters. The generated synthetic 3D seismic data was then compared to

  13. An economic production model for time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.R. Singh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a model for time dependent demand with multiple productions and rework setups. Production is demand dependent and greater than the demand rate. Production facility produces items in m production setups and one rework setup (m, 1 policy. The major reason of reverse logistic and green supply chain is rework, so it reduces the cost of production and other ecological problems. Most of the researchers developed a rework model without deteriorating items. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is shown to describe the model.

  14. The Job Demands-Resources Model in China: Validation and Extension

    OpenAIRE

    Hu, Q.

    2014-01-01

    The Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) Model assumes that employee health and well-being result from the interplay between job demands and job resources. Based on its openheuristic nature, the JD-R model can be applied to various occupational settings, irrespective of the particular demands and resources involved. However, the model has been developed and tested in western countries so that it is still an open question whether it can be applied in the Chinese work context. The objective of this dis...

  15. Development of a short-term model to predict natural gas demand, March 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lihn, M.L.

    1989-03-01

    Project management decisions for the Gas Research Institute (GRI) R and D program require an appreciation of the short-term outlook for gas consumption. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the methodology used to develop short-term models for the residential, commercial, industrial, and electric utility sectors. The relative success of the models in projecting gas demand, compared with actual gas demand, is reviewed for each major gas-consuming sector. The comparison of actual to projected gas demand has pointed out several problems with the model, and possible solutions to these problems are discussed

  16. Seismic response analysis of reactor containment structures - axisymmetric model with modified ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saha, S.; Dasgupta, A.; Basu, P.C.

    1993-01-01

    Seismic analysis of a Reactor Building is performed idealising the system as a beam model (BM) and also an Axi-symmetric model (ASM) and the results compared. In both the cases effect of Soil-Structure Interaction have been taken Into account. Since the lower boundary of the ASM was at a depth much lower than that of the BM, deconvolution of the specified Free-Field Motion (FFM) was necessary. The deconvolution has been performed using frequency domain approach. (author)

  17. Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano

    2016-12-01

    The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

  18. A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDMONDS, JAMES A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; LINK, ROBERT [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; CUI, RYNA [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

    2017-11-01

    Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

  19. Job stress, fatigue, and job dissatisfaction in Dutch lorry drivers: towards an occupation specific model of job demands and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Croon, E. M.; Blonk, R. W. B.; de Zwart, B. C. H.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Broersen, J. P. J.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: Building on Karasek's model of job demands and control (JD-C model), this study examined the effects of job control, quantitative workload, and two occupation specific job demands (physical demands and supervisor demands) on fatigue and job dissatisfaction in Dutch lorry drivers.

  20. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  1. Towards a Job Demands-Resources Health Model: Empirical Testing with Generalizable Indicators of Job Demands, Job Resources, and Comprehensive Health Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Brauchli, Rebecca; Jenny, Gregor J.; Füllemann, Désirée; Bauer, Georg F.

    2015-01-01

    Studies using the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model commonly have a heterogeneous focus concerning the variables they investigate?selective job demands and resources as well as burnout and work engagement. The present study applies the rationale of the JD-R model to expand the relevant outcomes of job demands and job resources by linking the JD-R model to the logic of a generic health development framework predicting more broadly positive and negative health. The resulting JD-R health model ...

  2. Competition with Online and Offline Demands considering Logistics Costs Based on the Hotelling Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Hua Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Through popular information technologies (e.g., call centers, web portal, ecommerce and social media, etc., traditional shops change their functions for servicing online demands while still providing offline sales and services, which expand the market and the service capacity. In the Hotelling model that formulates the demand effect by considering just offline demand, the shops in a line city will locate at the center as a the result of competition by games. The online demands are met by the delivery logistics services provided by the shops with additional cost; the consumers’ waiting time after their orders also affects their choices for shops. The main purpose is to study the effects of the following aspects on the shops’ location competition: two logistics costs (consumers’ travelling cost for offline demands and the shops’ delivery logistics cost for online demands, the consumers’ waiting cost for online orders, and the ratios of online demands to the whole demands. Therefore, this study primarily contributes to the literature on the formulation of these aspects by extending the Hotelling model. These features and effects are demonstrated by experiments using the extended Hotelling models.

  3. Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan

    2016-01-01

    Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.

  4. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  5. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  6. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Intaher M. Ambe

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.

  7. Integrated Reflection Seismic Monitoring and Reservoir Modeling for Geologic CO2 Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Rogers

    2011-12-31

    The US DOE/NETL CCS MVA program funded a project with Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc. (now SIGMA) to model the proof of concept of using sparse seismic data in the monitoring of CO{sub 2} injected into saline aquifers. The goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate an active source reflection seismic imaging strategy based on deployment of spatially sparse surface seismic arrays. The primary objective was to test the feasibility of sparse seismic array systems to monitor the CO{sub 2} plume migration injected into deep saline aquifers. The USDOE/RMOTC Teapot Dome (Wyoming) 3D seismic and reservoir data targeting the Crow Mountain formation was used as a realistic proxy to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Though the RMOTC field has been well studied, the Crow Mountain as a saline aquifer has not been studied previously as a CO{sub 2} sequestration (storage) candidate reservoir. A full reprocessing of the seismic data from field tapes that included prestack time migration (PSTM) followed by prestack depth migration (PSDM) was performed. A baseline reservoir model was generated from the new imaging results that characterized the faults and horizon surfaces of the Crow Mountain reservoir. The 3D interpretation was integrated with the petrophysical data from available wells and incorporated into a geocellular model. The reservoir structure used in the geocellular model was developed using advanced inversion technologies including Fusion's ThinMAN{trademark} broadband spectral inversion. Seal failure risk was assessed using Fusion's proprietary GEOPRESS{trademark} pore pressure and fracture pressure prediction technology. CO{sub 2} injection was simulated into the Crow Mountain with a commercial reservoir simulator. Approximately 1.2MM tons of CO{sub 2} was simulated to be injected into the Crow Mountain reservoir over 30 years and subsequently let 'soak' in the reservoir for 970 years. The relatively small plume

  8. Numerical calculation models of the elastoplastic response of a structure under seismic action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edjtemai, Nima.

    1982-06-01

    Two digital calculation models developed in this work have made it possible to analyze the exact dynamic behaviour of ductile structures with one or several degrees of liberty, during earthquakes. With the first model, response spectra were built in the linear and non-linear fields for different absorption and ductility values and two types of seismic accelerograms. The comparative study of these spectra made it possible to check the validity of certain hypotheses suggested for the construction of elastoplastic spectra from corresponding linear spectra. A simplified method of non-linear seismic calculation based on the modal analysis and the spectra of elastoplastic response was then applied to structures with a varying number of degrees of liberty. The results obtained in this manner were compared with those provided by an exact calculation provided by the second digital model developed by us [fr

  9. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  10. Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

    2017-12-01

    Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

  11. AxiSEM3D: broadband seismic wavefields in 3-D aspherical Earth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, K.; Nissen-Meyer, T.; Zad, K. H.; van Driel, M.; Al-Attar, D.

    2017-12-01

    Seismology is the primary tool for data-informed inference of Earth structure and dynamics. Simulating seismic wave propagation at a global scale is fundamental to seismology, but remains as one of most challenging problems in scientific computing, because of both the multiscale nature of Earth's interior and the observable frequency band of seismic data. We present a novel numerical method to simulate global seismic wave propagation in realistic 3-D Earth models. Our method, named AxiSEM3D, is a hybrid of spectral element method and pseudospectral method. It reduces the azimuthal dimension of wavefields by means of a global Fourier series parameterization, of which the number of terms can be locally adapted to the inherent azimuthal smoothness of the wavefields. AxiSEM3D allows not only for material heterogeneities, such as velocity, density, anisotropy and attenuation, but also for finite undulations on radial discontinuities, both solid-solid and solid-fluid, and thereby a variety of aspherical Earth features such as ellipticity, topography, variable crustal thickness, and core-mantle boundary topography. Such interface undulations are equivalently interpreted as material perturbations of the contiguous media, based on the "particle relabelling transformation". Efficiency comparisons show that AxiSEM3D can be 1 to 3 orders of magnitude faster than conventional 3-D methods, with the speedup increasing with simulation frequency and decreasing with model complexity, but for all realistic structures the speedup remains at least one order of magnitude. The observable frequency range of global seismic data (up to 1 Hz) has been covered for wavefield modelling upon a 3-D Earth model with reasonable computing resources. We show an application of surface wave modelling within a state-of-the-art global crustal model (Crust1.0), with the synthetics compared to real data. The high-performance C++ code is released at github.com/AxiSEM3D/AxiSEM3D.

  12. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  13. Development of demand functions and their inclusion in linear programming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamberlin, J.H.

    1976-05-01

    The purpose of the paper is to present a method for including demand directly within a linear programming model, and to use this method to analyze the effect of the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor upon the nuclear energy system

  14. Wilderness Recreation Demand: A Comparison of Travel Cost and On-Site Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Bowker; A. Askew; L. Seymour; J.P. Zhu; D. English; C.M. Starbuck

    2009-01-01

    This study used travel cost and on-site day cost models, coupled with the Forest Service’s National Visitor Use Monitoring data, to examine the demand for and value of recreation access to designated Wilderness.

  15. Three stage supply chain model with two warehouse, imperfect production, variable demand rate and inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preety Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study develops an integrated production inventory model from the perspectives of vendor, supplier and buyer. The demand rate is time dependent for the vendor and supplier and buyer assumes the stock dependent demand rate. As per the demand, supplier uses two warehouses (rented and owned for the storage of excess quantities. Shortages are allowed at the buyer’s part only and the unfulfilled demand is partially backlogged. The effect of imperfect production processes on lot sizing is also considered. This complete model is studied under the effect of inflation. The objective is to minimize the total cost for the system. A solution procedure is developed to find a near optimal solution for the model. A numerical example along with sensitivity analysis is given to illustrate the model.

  16. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  17. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  18. A comparative study of two statistical approaches for the analysis of real seismicity sequences and synthetic seismicity generated by a stick-slip experimental model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Marquez, Leticia Elsa; Ramirez Rojaz, Alejandro; Telesca, Luciano

    2015-04-01

    The study of two statistical approaches is analyzed for two different types of data sets, one is the seismicity generated by the subduction processes occurred at south Pacific coast of Mexico between 2005 and 2012, and the other corresponds to the synthetic seismic data generated by a stick-slip experimental model. The statistical methods used for the present study are the visibility graph in order to investigate the time dynamics of the series and the scaled probability density function in the natural time domain to investigate the critical order of the system. This comparison has the purpose to show the similarities between the dynamical behaviors of both types of data sets, from the point of view of critical systems. The observed behaviors allow us to conclude that the experimental set up globally reproduces the behavior observed in the statistical approaches used to analyses the seismicity of the subduction zone. The present study was supported by the Bilateral Project Italy-Mexico Experimental Stick-slip models of tectonic faults: innovative statistical approaches applied to synthetic seismic sequences, jointly funded by MAECI (Italy) and AMEXCID (Mexico) in the framework of the Bilateral Agreement for Scientific and Technological Cooperation PE 2014-2016.

  19. Multi-Objective Demand Response Model Considering the Probabilistic Characteristic of Price Elastic Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengchun Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Demand response (DR programs provide an effective approach for dealing with the challenge of wind power output fluctuations. Given that uncertain DR, such as price elastic load (PEL, plays an important role, the uncertainty of demand response behavior must be studied. In this paper, a multi-objective stochastic optimization problem of PEL is proposed on the basis of the analysis of the relationship between price elasticity and probabilistic characteristic, which is about stochastic demand models for consumer loads. The analysis aims to improve the capability of accommodating wind output uncertainty. In our approach, the relationship between the amount of demand response and interaction efficiency is developed by actively participating in power grid interaction. The probabilistic representation and uncertainty range of the PEL demand response amount are formulated differently compared with those of previous research. Based on the aforementioned findings, a stochastic optimization model with the combined uncertainties from the wind power output and the demand response scenario is proposed. The proposed model analyzes the demand response behavior of PEL by maximizing the electricity consumption satisfaction and interaction benefit satisfaction of PEL. Finally, a case simulation on the provincial power grid with a 151-bus system verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed mechanism and models.

  20. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  1. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate d...

  2. EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

    2017-11-01

    In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.

  3. Validation of PWR core seismic models with shaking table tests on interacting scale 1 fuel assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viallet, E.; Bolsee, G.; Ladouceur, B.; Goubin, T.; Rigaudeau, J.

    2003-01-01

    The fuel assembly mechanical strength must be justified with respect to the lateral loads under accident conditions, in particular seismic loads. This justification is performed by means of time-history analyses with dynamic models of an assembly row in the core, allowing for assembly deformations, impacts at grid locations and reactor coolant effects. Due to necessary simplifications, the models include 'equivalent' parameters adjusted with respect to dynamic characterisation tests of the fuel assemblies. Complementing such tests on isolated assemblies by an overall model validation with shaking table tests on interacting assemblies is obviously desirable. Seismic tests have been performed by French CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique) on a row of six full scale fuel assemblies, including two types of 17 x 17 12ft design. The row models are built according to the usual procedure, with preliminary characterisation tests performed on a single assembly. The test-calculation comparisons are made for two test configurations : in air and in water. The relatively large number of accelerograms (15, used for each configuration) is also favourable to significant comparisons. The results are presented for the impact forces at row ends, displacements at mid assembly, and also 'statistical' parameters. Despite a non-negligible scattering in the results obtained with different accelerograms, the calculations prove realistic, and the modelling process is validated with a good confidence level. This satisfactory validation allows to evaluate precisely the margins in the seismic design methodology of the fuel assemblies, and thus to confirm the safety of the plants in case of seismic event. (author)

  4. Building an Ensemble Seismic Hazard Model for the Magnitude Distribution by Using Alternative Bayesian Implementations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taroni, M.; Selva, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this work we show how we built an ensemble seismic hazard model for the magnitude distribution for the TSUMAPS-NEAM EU project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/). The considered source area includes the whole NEAM region (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas). We build our models by using the catalogs (EMEC and ISC), their completeness and the regionalization provided by the project. We developed four alternative implementations of a Bayesian model, considering tapered or truncated Gutenberg-Richter distributions, and fixed or variable b-value. The frequency size distribution is based on the Weichert formulation. This allows for simultaneously assessing all the frequency-size distribution parameters (a-value, b-value, and corner magnitude), using multiple completeness periods for the different magnitudes. With respect to previous studies, we introduce the tapered Pareto distribution (in addition to the classical truncated Pareto), and we build a novel approach to quantify the prior distribution. For each alternative implementation, we set the prior distributions using the global seismic data grouped according to the different types of tectonic setting, and assigned them to the related regions. The estimation is based on the complete (not declustered) local catalog in each region. Using the complete catalog also allows us to consider foreshocks and aftershocks in the seismic rate computation: the Poissonicity of the tsunami events (and similarly the exceedances of the PGA) will be insured by the Le Cam's theorem. This Bayesian approach provides robust estimations also in the zones where few events are available, but also leaves us the possibility to explore the uncertainty associated with the estimation of the magnitude distribution parameters (e.g. with the classical Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method). Finally we merge all the models with their uncertainty to create the ensemble model that represents our knowledge of the seismicity in the

  5. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  6. Seismic response of base-isolated buildings using a viscoelastic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uras, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology,seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly gaining acceptance as a design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, the fundamental frequency of the structure can be reduced to a value that is lower than the dominant frequencies of earthquake ground motions. The other feature of an isolation system is that it can provide a mechanism for energy dissipation. In the USA, the use of seismic base-isolation has become an alternate strategy for advanced Liquid Metal-cooled Reactors (LMRs). ANL has been deeply involved in the development and implementation of seismic isolation for use in both nuclear facilities and civil structures for the past decade. Shimizu Corporation of Japan has a test facility at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan. The test facility has two buildings: one is base isolated and the other is conventionally founded. The buildings are full-size, three-story reinforced concrete structures. The dimensions and construction of the superstructures are identical. They were built side by side in a seismically active area. In 1988, the ANL/Shimizu Joint Program was established to study the differences in behavior of base-isolated and ordinarily founded structures when subjected to earthquake loading. A more comprehensive description of this joint program is presented in a companion paper (Wang et al. 1993). With the increased use of elastomeric polymers in industrial applications such as isolation bearings, the importance of constitutive modeling of viscoelastic materials is more and more pronounced. A realistic representation of material behavior is essential for computer simulations to replicate the response observed in experiments

  7. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-02-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  8. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  9. Soil structure interaction model and variability of parameters in seismic analysis of nuclear island connected building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, K.V.; Palekar, S.M.; Bavare, M.S.; Mapari, H.A.; Patel, S.C.; Pillai, C.S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides salient features of the Soil Structure Interaction analysis of Nuclear Island Connected Building (NICB). The dynamic analysis of NICB is performed on a full 3D model accounting for the probable variation in the stiffness of the founding medium. A range analyses was performed to establish the effect of variability of subgrade parameters on the results of seismic analyses of NICB. This paper presents details of various analyses with respect to the subgrade model, uncertainties in subgrade properties, results of seismic analyses and a study of effect of the variability of parameters on the results of these analyses. The results of this study indicate that the variability of soil parameters beyond a certain value of shear wave velocity does not influence the response and in fact the response marginally diminishes. (authors)

  10. Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzette Payne

    2006-04-01

    This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

  11. Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzette Payne

    2007-08-01

    This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

  12. A pseudo-panel data model of household electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Bolduc, Denis [GREEN, Department of Economics, Universite Laval, Quebec (Canada); Yameogo, Nadege-Desiree [Analysis Group Inc., 1080 Beaver Hill, Suite 1810, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2011-01-15

    We study the dynamic behaviour of household electricity consumption on the basis of four large independent surveys conducted in the province of Quebec from 1989 to 2002. The latter region displays some rather unique features such as the very extensive use of electricity for space heating in a cold climate and the wide range of energy sources used to meet space heating requirements. We adopt approach to create 25 cohorts of households that form a pseudo-panel. The cohorts have on average 131 households. The model error terms allow for group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. Short-run and long-run own and cross-price elasticities are statistically significant. Electricity and natural gas are estimated to be substitutes while electricity and fuel oil are complements, as it may occur in the Quebec context. The estimate of the income elasticity is not significant. Comparisons with related studies are provided. (author)

  13. MODELLING CONSUMERS' DEMAND FOR ORGANIC FOOD PRODUCTS: THE SWEDISH EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuchehr Irandoust

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to examine a few factors characterizing consumer preferences and behavior towards organic food products in the south of Sweden using a proportional odds model which captures the natural ordering of dependent variables and any inherent nonlinearities. The findings show that consumer's choice for organic food depends on perceived benefits of organic food (environment, health, and quality and consumer's perception and attitudes towards labelling system, message framing, and local origin. In addition, high willingness to pay and income level will increase the probability to buy organic food, while the cultural differences and socio-demographic characteristics have no effect on consumer behaviour and attitudes towards organic food products. Policy implications are offered.

  14. Use of raster-based data layers to model spatial variation of seismotectonic data in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R.

    2009-07-01

    Recent achievements in computer and information technology have provided the necessary tools to extend the application of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping from its traditional engineering use to many other applications. Examples for such applications are risk mitigation, disaster management, post disaster recovery planning and catastrophe loss estimation and risk management. Due to the lack of proper knowledge with regard to factors controlling seismic hazards, there are always uncertainties associated with all steps involved in developing and using seismic hazard models. While some of these uncertainties can be controlled by more accurate and reliable input data, the majority of the data and assumptions used in seismic hazard studies remain with high uncertainties that contribute to the uncertainty of the final results. In this paper a new methodology for the assessment of seismic hazard is described. The proposed approach provides practical facility for better capture of spatial variations of seismological and tectonic characteristics, which allows better treatment of their uncertainties. In the proposed approach, GIS raster-based data models are used in order to model geographical features in a cell-based system. The cell-based source model proposed in this paper provides a framework for implementing many geographically referenced seismotectonic factors into seismic hazard modelling. Examples for such components are seismic source boundaries, rupture geometry, seismic activity rate, focal depth and the choice of attenuation functions. The proposed methodology provides improvements in several aspects of the standard analytical tools currently being used for assessment and mapping of regional seismic hazard. The proposed methodology makes the best use of the recent advancements in computer technology in both software and hardware. The proposed approach is well structured to be implemented using conventional GIS tools.

  15. Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

  16. Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. [CEPMLP, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom); Timilsina, Govinda R. [Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington DC (United States)

    2010-04-15

    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. (author)

  17. Application of thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models of concrete in the seismic analysis of concrete dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leng Fei

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the seismic analysis of concrete dams with consideration of material nonlinearity. Based on a consistent rate-dependent model and two thermodynamics-based models, two thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models were developed with consideration of the influence of the strain rate. They can describe the dynamic behavior of concrete and be applied to nonlinear seismic analysis of concrete dams taking into account the rate sensitivity of concrete. With the two models, a nonlinear analysis of the seismic response of the Koyna Gravity Dam and the Dagangshan Arch Dam was conducted. The results were compared with those of a linear elastic model and two rate-independent thermodynamics-based constitutive models, and the influences of constitutive models and strain rate on the seismic response of concrete dams were discussed. It can be concluded from the analysis that, during seismic response, the tensile stress is the control stress in the design and seismic safety evaluation of concrete dams. In different models, the plastic strain and plastic strain rate of concrete dams show a similar distribution. When the influence of the strain rate is considered, the maximum plastic strain and plastic strain rate decrease.

  18. An Economic Customer-Oriented Demand Response Model in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2018-01-01

    Consumer choice theory is a branch of microeconomics. This theory relates to adjusting consumption expenditures and consumer demand curve. Consumer choice science is trying to realize the buyer's decision-making process. This science studies customer characteristics, such as behavioral criteria......, to understand the consumer’s need. The concept of price elasticity of demand (PED) has also been derived from this theory. In fact, the PED is the percentage of changes in the amount of demand relative to the price changes. In consumer choice theory, for each consumer according to behavioral criteria, a unique...... demand response (DR) models have been developed based on this concept, this will also be deemed as a disadvantage for them. In this paper, we propose an economic DR model based on economic theories and mathematical methods. In addition to abate the defects of price-elasticity based DR models...

  19. Equilibrium Model of Discrete Dynamic Supply Chain Network with Random Demand and Advertisement Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guitao Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The advertisement can increase the consumers demand; therefore it is one of the most important marketing strategies in the operations management of enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the impact of advertising investment on a discrete dynamic supply chain network which consists of suppliers, manufactures, retailers, and demand markets associated at different tiers under random demand. The impact of advertising investment will last several planning periods besides the current period due to delay effect. Based on noncooperative game theory, variational inequality, and Lagrange dual theory, the optimal economic behaviors of the suppliers, the manufactures, the retailers, and the consumers in the demand markets are modeled. In turn, the supply chain network equilibrium model is proposed and computed by modified project contraction algorithm with fixed step. The effectiveness of the model is illustrated by numerical examples, and managerial insights are obtained through the analysis of advertising investment in multiple periods and advertising delay effect among different periods.

  20. Shortcomings of the Winkler Model in the Assessment of Sectioned Tunnels under Seismic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Lyngs, J. H.

    2009-01-01

    A Winkler-type model is often applied in the design of tunnels subject to seismic loading. Since the subgrade stiffness is modelled by disjoint springs, distributed continuously along the tunnel, the model does not account for retroaction via the soil. This may not be a problem in the design......-element solution, using a planned tunnel at Thessaloniki, Greece, as a case study. The aim of the analysis is to quantify the inaccuracy of the Winkler model in the prediction of damage at a gasket between two tunnel elements....

  1. Shortcomings of the Winkler Model in the Assessment of Sectioned Tunnels under Seismic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Lyngs, Jakob Hausgaard

    A Winkler-type model is often applied in the design of tunnels subject to seismic loading. Since the subgrade stiffness is modelled by disjoint springs, distributed continuously along the tunnel, the model does not account for retroaction via the soil. This may not be a problem in the design......-element solution, using a planned tunnel at Thessaloniki, Greece, as a case study. The aim of the analysis is to quantify the inaccuracy of the Winkler model in the prediction of damage at a gasket between two tunnel elements....

  2. 3D Reservoir Modeling of Semutang Gas Field: A lonely Gas field in Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt, with Integrated Well Log, 2D Seismic Reflectivity and Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehin, Z.; Woobaidullah, A. S. M.; Snigdha, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Bengal Basin with its prolific gas rich province provides needed energy to Bangladesh. Present energy situation demands more Hydrocarbon explorations. Only 'Semutang' is discovered in the high amplitude structures, where rest of are in the gentle to moderate structures of western part of Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt. But it has some major thrust faults which have strongly breached the reservoir zone. The major objectives of this research are interpretation of gas horizons and faults, then to perform velocity model, structural and property modeling to obtain reservoir properties. It is needed to properly identify the faults and reservoir heterogeneities. 3D modeling is widely used to reveal the subsurface structure in faulted zone where planning and development drilling is major challenge. Thirteen 2D seismic and six well logs have been used to identify six gas bearing horizons and a network of faults and to map the structure at reservoir level. Variance attributes were used to identify faults. Velocity model is performed for domain conversion. Synthetics were prepared from two wells where sonic and density logs are available. Well to seismic tie at reservoir zone shows good match with Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator on seismic section. Vsh, porosity, water saturation and permeability have been calculated and various cross plots among porosity logs have been shown. Structural modeling is used to make zone and layering accordance with minimum sand thickness. Fault model shows the possible fault network, those liable for several dry wells. Facies model have been constrained with Sequential Indicator Simulation method to show the facies distribution along the depth surfaces. Petrophysical models have been prepared with Sequential Gaussian Simulation to estimate petrophysical parameters away from the existing wells to other parts of the field and to observe heterogeneities in reservoir. Average porosity map for each gas zone were constructed. The outcomes of the research

  3. Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikia, C. K.; Helmberger, D. V.; Stead, R. J.; Woods, B. B.

    - It has proven difficult to uniquely untangle the source and propagation effects on the observed seismic data from underground nuclear explosions, even when large quantities of near-source, broadband data are available for analysis. This leads to uncertainties in our ability to quantify the nuclear seismic source function and, consequently the accuracy of seismic yield estimates for underground explosions. Extensive deterministic modeling analyses of the seismic data recorded from underground explosions at a variety of test sites have been conducted over the years and the results of these studies suggest that variations in the seismic source characteristics between test sites may be contributing to the observed differences in the magnitude/yield relations applicable at those sites. This contributes to our uncertainty in the determination of seismic yield estimates for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. In this paper we review issues involving the relationship of Nevada Test Site (NTS) source scaling laws to those at other sites. The Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) indicates that a magnitude (mb) bias (δmb) exists between the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Nevada test site (NTS) in the United States. Generally this δmb is attributed to differential attenuation in the upper-mantle beneath the two test sites. This assumption results in rather large estimates of yield for large mb tunnel shots at Novaya Zemlya. A re-examination of the US testing experiments suggests that this δmb bias can partly be explained by anomalous NTS (Pahute) source characteristics. This interpretation is based on the modeling of US events at a number of test sites. Using a modified Haskell source description, we investigated the influence of the source Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) parameters ψ ∞ , K and B by fitting short- and long-period data simultaneously, including the near-field body and surface waves. In general

  4. A PSO–GA optimal model to estimate primary energy demand of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

    2012-01-01

    To improve estimation efficiency for future projections, the present study has proposed a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential, and quadratic) are optimized by PSO–GA using factors, such as GDP, population, economic structure, urbanization rate, and energy consumption structure, that affect demand. Based on 20-year historical data between 1990 and 2009, the simulation results of the proposed model have greater accuracy and reliability than other single optimization methods. Moreover, it can be used with optimal coefficients for the energy demand projections of China. The departure coefficient method is applied to get the weights of the three forms of the model to obtain a combinational prediction. The energy demand of China is going to be 4.79, 4.04, and 4.48 billion tce in 2015, and 6.91, 5.03, and 6.11 billion tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent) in 2020 under three different scenarios. Further, the projection results are compared with other estimating methods. - Highlights: ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► Energy demand of China is estimated by 2020 in three different scenarios. ► The projection results are compared with other estimating methods.

  5. Seismic Travel Time Tomography in Modeling Low Velocity Anomalies between the Boreholes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Octova, A.; Sule, R.

    2018-04-01

    Travel time cross-hole seismic tomography is applied to describing the structure of the subsurface. The sources are placed at one borehole and some receivers are placed in the others. First arrival travel time data that received by each receiver is used as the input data in seismic tomography method. This research is devided into three steps. The first step is reconstructing the synthetic model based on field parameters. Field parameters are divided into 24 receivers and 45 receivers. The second step is applying inversion process for the field data that consists of five pairs bore holes. The last step is testing quality of tomogram with resolution test. Data processing using FAST software produces an explicit shape and resemble the initial model reconstruction of synthetic model with 45 receivers. The tomography processing in field data indicates cavities in several place between the bore holes. Cavities are identified on BH2A-BH1, BH4A-BH2A and BH4A-BH5 with elongated and rounded structure. In resolution tests using a checker-board, anomalies still can be identified up to 2 meter x 2 meter size. Travel time cross-hole seismic tomography analysis proves this mothod is very good to describing subsurface structure and boundary layer. Size and anomalies position can be recognized and interpreted easily.

  6. Depth geological model building: application to the 3D high resolution 'ANDRA' seismic block

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, J.L.; Yven, B.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. 3D seismic blocks and logging data, mainly acoustic and density logs, are often used for geological model building in time. The geological model must be then converted from time to depth. Geostatistical approach for time-to-depth conversion of seismic horizons is often used in many geo-modelling projects. From a geostatistical point of view, the time-to-depth conversion of seismic horizons is a classical estimation problem involving one or more secondary variables. Bayesian approach [1] provides an excellent estimator which is more general than the traditional kriging with external drift(s) and fits very well to the needs for time-to-depth conversion of seismic horizons. The time-to-depth conversion of the selected seismic horizons is used to compute a time-to-depth conversion model at the time sampling rate (1 ms). The 3D depth conversion model allows the computation of an interval velocity block which is compared with the acoustic impedance block to estimate a density block as QC. Non realistic density values are edited and the interval velocity block as well as the depth conversion model is updated. The proposed procedure has been applied on a 3D data set. The dataset comes from a High Resolution 3D seismic survey recorded in France at the boundary of the Meuse and Haute-Marne departments in the vicinity of the Andra Center (National radioactive waste management Agency). The 3D design is a cross spread. The active spread is composed of 12 receiver lines with 120 stations each. The source lines are perpendicular to the receiver lines. The receiver and source line spacings are respectively 80 m and 120 m. The receiver and source point spacings are 20 m. The source is a Vibroseis source generating a signal in the 14 - 140 Hz frequency bandwidth.. The bin size is 10 x 10 m 2 . The nominal fold is 60. A conventional seismic sequence was applied to the data set. It includes amplitude recovery, deconvolution and wave

  7. Combined reservoir simulation and seismic technology, a new approach for modeling CHOPS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghabarati, H.; Lines, L.; Settari, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada); Dumitrescu, C. [Sensor Geophysical Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-10-15

    One of the primary recovery schemes for developing heavy oil reservoirs in Canada is cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS). With the introduction of progressive cavity pumps, CHOPS can be applied in unconsolidated or weakly consolidated formations. In order to better understand reservoir properties and recovery mechanism, this paper discussed the use of a combined reservoir simulation and seismic technology that were applied for a heavy oil reservoir situated in Saskatchewan, Canada. Using a seismic survey acquired in 1989, the study used geostatistical methods to estimate the initial reservoir porosity. Sand production was then modeled using an erosional velocity approach and the model was run based on oil production. The paper also compared the results of true porosity derived from simulation against the porosity estimated from a second seismic survey acquired in 2001. Last, the extent and the shape of the enhanced permeability region was modelled in order to estimate porosity distribution. It was concluded that the performance of the CHOPS wells depended greatly on the rate of creation of the high permeability zone around the wells. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs., 1 appendix.

  8. Seismic Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-09-25

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground

  9. Seismic Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-01-01

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground motion at

  10. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

  11. Seismic Response Analysis and Test of 1/8 Scale Model for a Spent Fuel Storage Cask

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Han; Park, C. G.; Koo, G. H.; Seo, G. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yeom, S. H. [Chungnam Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, B. I.; Cho, Y. D. [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-15

    The seismic response tests of a spent fuel dry storage cask model of 1/8 scale are performed for an typical 1940 El-centro and Kobe earthquakes. This report firstly focuses on the data generation by seismic response tests of a free standing storage cask model to check the overturing possibility of a storage cask and the slipping displacement on concrete slab bed. The variations in seismic load magnitude and cask/bed interface friction are considered in tests. The test results show that the model gives an overturning response for an extreme condition only. A FEM model is built for the test model of 1/8 scale spent fuel dry storage cask using available 3D contact conditions in ABAQUS/Explicit. Input load for this analysis is El-centro earthquake, and the friction coefficients are obtained from the test result. Penalty and kinematic contact methods of ABAQUS are used for a mechanical contact formulation. The analysis methods was verified with the rocking angle obtained by seismic response tests. The kinematic contact method with an adequate normal contact stiffness showed a good agreement with tests. Based on the established analysis method for 1/8 scale model, the seismic response analyses of a full scale model are performed for design and beyond design seismic loads.

  12. Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-15

    This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

  13. Seismic testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sollogoub, Pierre

    2001-01-01

    This lecture deals with: qualification methods for seismic testing; objectives of seismic testing; seismic testing standards including examples; main content of standard; testing means; and some important elements of seismic testing

  14. Letter to the Editor: Electric Vehicle Demand Model for Load Flow Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Vlachogiannis, Ioannis (John)

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces specific and simple model for electric vehicles suitable for load flow studies. The electric vehicles demand system is modelled as PQ bus with stochastic characteristics based on the concept of queuing theory. All appropriate variables of stochastic PQ buses are given...... with closed formulae as a function of charging time. Specific manufacturer model of electric vehicles is used as study case....

  15. The primary demand for beer in the Netherlands; an application of ARMAX model specification

    OpenAIRE

    Franses, Philip Hans

    1991-01-01

    textabstractThe central issue in the application of econometric and time series analysis (ETS) to market response models is the model-building process. The author proposes a specification strategy for ETS modeling and applies it to the primary demand for beer in The Netherlands.

  16. Waveform modeling of the seismic response of a mid-ocean ridge axial melt sill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Min; Stephen, R. A.; Canales, J. Pablo

    2017-12-01

    Seismic reflections from axial magma lens (AML) are commonly observed along many mid-ocean ridges, and are thought to arise from the negative impedance contrast between a solid, high-speed lid and the underlying low-speed, molten or partially molten (mush) sill. The polarity of the AML reflection ( P AML P) at vertical incidence and the amplitude vs offset (AVO) behavior of the AML reflections (e.g., P AML P and S-converted P AML S waves) are often used as a diagnostic tool for the nature of the low-speed sill. Time-domain finite difference calculations for two-dimensional laterally homogeneous models show some scenarios make the interpretation of melt content from partial-offset stacks of P- and S-waves difficult. Laterally heterogeneous model calculations indicate diffractions from the edges of the finite-width AML reducing the amplitude of the AML reflections. Rough seafloor and/or a rough AML surface can also greatly reduce the amplitude of peg-leg multiples because of scattering and destructive interference. Mid-crustal seismic reflection events are observed in the three-dimensional multi-channel seismic dataset acquired over the RIDGE-2000 Integrated Study Site at East Pacific Rise (EPR, cruise MGL0812). Modeling indicates that the mid-crustal seismic reflection reflections are unlikely to arise from peg-leg multiples of the AML reflections, P-to- S converted phases, or scattering due to rough topography, but could probably arise from deeper multiple magma sills. Our results support the identification of Marjanović et al. (Nat Geosci 7(11):825-829, 2014) that a multi-level complex of melt lenses is present beneath the axis of the EPR.

  17. Seismic attenuation in fractured porous media: insights from a hybrid numerical and analytical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekanem, A M; Li, X Y; Chapman, M; Main, I G

    2015-01-01

    Seismic attenuation in fluid-saturated porous rocks can occur by geometric spreading, wave scattering or the internal dissipation of energy, most likely due to the squirt-flow mechanism. In principle, the pattern of seismic attenuation recorded on an array of sensors contains information about the medium, in terms of material heterogeneity and anisotropy, as well as material properties such as porosity, crack density, and pore-fluid composition and mobility. In practice, this inverse problem is challenging. Here we provide some insights into the effects of internal dissipation by analysing synthetic data produced by a hybrid numerical and analytical model for seismic wave propagation in a fractured medium embedded within a layered geological structure. The model is made up of one anisotropic and three isotropic horizontal layers. The anisotropic layer consists of a porous, fluid-saturated material containing vertically aligned inclusions representing a set of fractures. This combination allows squirt-flow to occur between the pores in the matrix and the model fractures. Our results show that the fluid mobility and the associated relaxation time of the fluid-pressure gradient control the frequency range over which attenuation occurs. This induced attenuation increases with incidence angle and azimuth away from the fracture strike-direction. Azimuthal variations in the induced attenuation are elliptical allowing the fracture orientations to be obtained from the axes of the ellipse. These observations hold out the potential of using seismic attenuation as an additional diagnostic in the characterisation of rock formations for a variety of applications including hydrocarbon exploration and production, subsurface storage of CO 2 , and geothermal energy extraction. (paper)

  18. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 1. Insights from laboratory models

    KAUST Repository

    Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Moroni, M.; van Dinther, Y.; Mai, Paul Martin; Dalguer, L. A.; Faccenna, C.

    2013-01-01

    Subduction megathrust earthquakes occur at the interface between the subducting and overriding plates. These hazardous phenomena are only partially understood because of the absence of direct observations, the restriction of the instrumental seismic record to the past century, and the limited resolution/completeness of historical to geological archives. To overcome these restrictions, modeling has become a key-tool to study megathrust earthquakes. We present a novel model to investigate the seismic cycle at subduction thrusts using complementary analog (paper 1) and numerical (paper 2) approaches. Here we introduce a simple scaled gelatin-on-sandpaper setup including realistic tectonic loading, spontaneous rupture nucleation, and viscoelastic response of the lithosphere. Particle image velocimetry allows to derive model deformation and earthquake source parameters. Analog earthquakes are characterized by “quasi-periodic” recurrence. Consistent with elastic theory, the interseismic stage shows rearward motion, subsidence in the outer wedge and uplift of the “coastal area” as a response of locked plate interface at shallow depth. The coseismic stage exhibits order of magnitude higher velocities and reversal of the interseismic deformation pattern in the seaward direction, subsidence of the coastal area, and uplift in the outer wedge. Like natural earthquakes, analog earthquakes generally nucleate in the deeper portion of the rupture area and preferentially propagate upward in a crack-like fashion. Scaled rupture width-slip proportionality and seismic moment-duration scaling verifies dynamic similarities with earthquakes. Experimental repeatability is statistically verified. Comparing analog results with natural observations, we conclude that this technique is suitable for investigating the parameter space influencing the subduction interplate seismic cycle.

  19. Highly-optimized TWSM software package for seismic diffraction modeling adapted for GPU-cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zyatkov, Nikolay; Ayzenberg, Alena; Aizenberg, Arkady

    2015-04-01

    Oil producing companies concern to increase resolution capability of seismic data for complex oil-and-gas bearing deposits connected with salt domes, basalt traps, reefs, lenses, etc. Known methods of seismic wave theory define shape of hydrocarbon accumulation with nonsufficient resolution, since they do not account for multiple diffractions explicitly. We elaborate alternative seismic wave theory in terms of operators of propagation in layers and reflection-transmission at curved interfaces. Approximation of this theory is realized in the seismic frequency range as the Tip-Wave Superposition Method (TWSM). TWSM based on the operator theory allows to evaluate of wavefield in bounded domains/layers with geometrical shadow zones (in nature it can be: salt domes, basalt traps, reefs, lenses, etc.) accounting for so-called cascade diffraction. Cascade diffraction includes edge waves from sharp edges, creeping waves near concave parts of interfaces, waves of the whispering galleries near convex parts of interfaces, etc. The basic algorithm of TWSM package is based on multiplication of large-size matrices (make hundreds of terabytes in size). We use advanced information technologies for effective realization of numerical procedures of the TWSM. In particular, we actively use NVIDIA CUDA technology and GPU accelerators allowing to significantly improve the performance of the TWSM software package, that is important in using it for direct and inverse problems. The accuracy, stability and efficiency of the algorithm are justified by numerical examples with curved interfaces. TWSM package and its separate components can be used in different modeling tasks such as planning of acquisition systems, physical interpretation of laboratory modeling, modeling of individual waves of different types and in some inverse tasks such as imaging in case of laterally inhomogeneous overburden, AVO inversion.

  20. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 1. Insights from laboratory models

    KAUST Repository

    Corbi, F.

    2013-04-01

    Subduction megathrust earthquakes occur at the interface between the subducting and overriding plates. These hazardous phenomena are only partially understood because of the absence of direct observations, the restriction of the instrumental seismic record to the past century, and the limited resolution/completeness of historical to geological archives. To overcome these restrictions, modeling has become a key-tool to study megathrust earthquakes. We present a novel model to investigate the seismic cycle at subduction thrusts using complementary analog (paper 1) and numerical (paper 2) approaches. Here we introduce a simple scaled gelatin-on-sandpaper setup including realistic tectonic loading, spontaneous rupture nucleation, and viscoelastic response of the lithosphere. Particle image velocimetry allows to derive model deformation and earthquake source parameters. Analog earthquakes are characterized by “quasi-periodic” recurrence. Consistent with elastic theory, the interseismic stage shows rearward motion, subsidence in the outer wedge and uplift of the “coastal area” as a response of locked plate interface at shallow depth. The coseismic stage exhibits order of magnitude higher velocities and reversal of the interseismic deformation pattern in the seaward direction, subsidence of the coastal area, and uplift in the outer wedge. Like natural earthquakes, analog earthquakes generally nucleate in the deeper portion of the rupture area and preferentially propagate upward in a crack-like fashion. Scaled rupture width-slip proportionality and seismic moment-duration scaling verifies dynamic similarities with earthquakes. Experimental repeatability is statistically verified. Comparing analog results with natural observations, we conclude that this technique is suitable for investigating the parameter space influencing the subduction interplate seismic cycle.

  1. A model of the demand for Islamic banks debt-based financing instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Mansor; Khalid, Norlin

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the demand for debt-based financing instruments of the Islamic banks. Debt-based financing, such as through baibithamanajil and al-murabahah, is by far the most prominent of the Islamic bank financing and yet it has been largely ignored in Islamic economics literature. Most studies instead have been focusing on equity-based financing of al-mudharabah and al-musyarakah. Islamic bank offers debt-based financing through various instruments derived under the principle of exchange (ukud al-mu'awadhat) or more specifically, the contract of deferred sale. Under such arrangement, Islamic debt is created when goods are purchased and the payments are deferred. Thus, unlike debt of the conventional bank which is a form of financial loan contract to facilitate demand for liquid assets, this Islamic debt is created in response to the demand to purchase goods by deferred payment. In this paper we set an analytical framework that is based on an infinitely lived representative agent model (ILRA model) to analyze the demand for goods to be purchased by deferred payment. The resulting demand will then be used to derive the demand for Islamic debt. We also investigate theoretically, factors that may have an impact on the demand for Islamic debt.

  2. Understanding well-being and learning of Nigerian nurses: a job demand control support model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Doorn, Yvonne; van Ruysseveldt, Joris; van Dam, Karen; Mistiaen, Wilhelm; Nikolova, Irina

    2016-10-01

    This study investigated whether Nigerian nurses' emotional exhaustion and active learning were predicted by job demands, control and social support. Limited research has been conducted concerning nurses' work stress in developing countries, such as Nigeria. Accordingly, it is not clear whether work interventions for improving nurses' well-being in these countries can be based on work stress models that are developed in Western countries, such as the job demand control support model, as well as on empirical findings of job demand control support research. Nurses from Nurses Across the Borders Nigeria were invited to complete an online questionnaire containing validated scales; 210 questionnaires were fully completed and analysed. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the hypotheses. Emotional exhaustion was higher for nurses who experienced high demands and low supervisor support. Active learning occurred when nurses worked under conditions of high control and high supervisor support. The findings suggest that the job demand control support model is applicable in a Nigerian nursing situation; the model indicates which occupational stressors contribute to poor well-being in Nigerian nurses and which work characteristics may boost nurses' active learning. Job (re)design interventions can enhance nurses' well-being and learning by guarding nurses' job demands, and stimulating job control and supervisor support. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krysiak, Frank C.; Weigt, Hannes

    2015-01-01

    Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  4. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krysiak, Frank C., E-mail: frank.krysiak@unibas.ch; Weigt, Hannes [Department of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland)

    2015-05-19

    Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  5. The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eKrysiak

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

  6. Demand and generation cost uncertainty modelling in power system optimization studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Bruno Andre; Saraiva, Joao Tome [INESC Porto and Departamento de Engenharia Electrotecnica e Computadores, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, FEUP, Campus da FEUP Rua Roberto Frias 378, 4200 465 Porto (Portugal)

    2009-06-15

    This paper describes the formulations and the solution algorithms developed to include uncertainties in the generation cost function and in the demand on DC OPF studies. The uncertainties are modelled by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and the solution algorithms are based on multiparametric linear programming techniques. These models are a development of an initial formulation detailed in several publications co-authored by the second author of this paper. Now, we developed a more complete model and a more accurate solution algorithm in the sense that it is now possible to capture the widest possible range of values of the output variables reflecting both demand and generation cost uncertainties. On the other hand, when modelling simultaneously demand and generation cost uncertainties, we are representing in a more realistic way the volatility that is currently inherent to power systems. Finally, the paper includes a case study to illustrate the application of these models based on the IEEE 24 bus test system. (author)

  7. Fundamental aspects of the integration of seismic monitoring with numerical modelling.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mendecki, AJ

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available of the physical state of the rock- mass. ! It must be equipped with the capability of converting the parameters of a real seismic event into a corresponding model-compatible input in the form of an additional loading on the rock-mass. ! It must allow... for an unambiguous identification and quantification of Aseismic events @ among the model-generated data. Structure of an integrated numerical model The functionality interrelations between the different components of a software package designed to implement...

  8. Modelling of stiffness and damping change in reinforced concrete structures under seismic actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koenig, G.; Oetes, A.

    1985-01-01

    Restoring force and energy dissipation properties of ductile reinforced concrete structures during seismic excitation are investigated. Interpreting the results of earthquake simulation experiments with large scale reinforced concrete structural members mainly subjected to cyclic bending the various types of the force-deflection response and energy dissipation capability will be identified. Two alternative concepts are suggested for modelling: A rigorous model which considers the numerous deformation and dissipation mechanisms using a step by step algorithm for analysis and a simplified practical model which employs a modified spectrum analysis technique and a simple updating procedure for changing stiffness and damping properties of the members. (orig.)

  9. Linear models of income patterns in consumer demand for foods and evaluation of its elasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Syrovátka

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the use of the linear constructions for developing of Engel’s demand models in the field of the food-consumer demand. In the theoretical part of the paper, the linear approximations of this demand models are analysed on the bases of the linear interpolation. In the same part of this text, the hyperbolic elasticity function was defined for the linear Engel model. The behaviour of the hyperbolic elasticity function and its properties were consequently investigated too. The behaviour of the determined elasticity function was investigated according to the values of the intercept point and the direction parameter in the original linear Engel model. The obtained theoretical findings were tested using the real data of Czech Statistical Office. The developed linear Engel model was explicitly dynamised, because the achieved database was formed into the time series. With respect to the two variables definitions of the hyperbolic function in the theoretical part of the text, the determined dynamic model of the Engel demand for food was transformed into the form with parametric intercept point:ret* = At + 0.0946 · rmt*,where the values of absolute member are defined as:At = 1773.0973 + 9.3064 · t – 0.3023 · t2; (t = 1, 2, ... 32.The value of At in the parametric linear model of Engel consumer demand for food was during the observed period (1995–2002 always positive. Thus, the hyperbolic elasticity function achieved the elasticity coefficients from the interval:ηt ∈〈+0; +1.Within quantitative analysis of Engel demand for food in the Czech Republic during the given time period, it was founded, that income elasticity of food expenditures of the average Czech household was moved between +0.4080 and +0.4511. The Czech-household demand for food is thus income inelastic with the normal income reactions.

  10. Underground gas storage Lobodice geological model development based on 3D seismic interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopal, L.

    2015-01-01

    Aquifer type underground gas storage (UGS) Lobodice was developed in the Central Moravian part of Carpathian foredeep in Czech Republic 50 years ago. In order to improve knowledge about UGS geological structure 3D seismic survey was performed in 2009. Reservoir is rather shallow (400 - 500 m below surface) it is located in complicated locality so limitations for field acquisition phase were abundant. This article describes process work flow from 3D seismic field data acquisition to geological model creation. The outcomes of this work flow define geometry of UGS reservoir, its tectonics, structure spill point, cap rock and sealing features of the structure. Improving of geological knowledge about the reservoir enables less risky new well localization for UGS withdrawal rate increasing. (authors)

  11. Energy and stiffness of mine models and seismicity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spottiswoode, SM

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available of the Carbon Leader reef (CLR) and the Ventersdorp Contact reef (VCR). More than 500,000 m2 of reef were mined over several years and generated more than 10,000 events of magnitude greater than 0,0 in each case. The researchers proposed a simple softening model...

  12. A calculation model for a HTR core seismic response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buland, P.; Berriaud, C.; Cebe, E.; Livolant, M.

    1975-01-01

    The paper presents the experimental results obtained at Saclay on a HTGR core model and comparisons with analytical results. Two series of horizontal tests have been performed on the shaking table VESUVE: sinusoidal test and time history response. Acceleration of graphite blocks, forces on the boundaries, relative displacement of the core and PCRB model, impact velocity of the blocks on the boundaries were recorded. These tests have shown the strongly non-linear dynamic behaviour of the core. The resonant frequency of the core is dependent on the level of the excitation. These phenomena have been explained by a computer code, which is a lumped mass non-linear model. Good correlation between experimental and analytical results was obtained for impact velocities and forces on the boundaries. This comparison has shown that the damping of the core is a critical parameter for the estimation of forces and velocities. Time history displacement at the level of PCRV was reproduced on the shaking table. The analytical model was applied to this excitation and good agreement was obtained for forces and velocities. (orig./HP) [de

  13. FE Modelling of the Seismic Behavior of Wide Beam-Column Joints Strengthened with CFRP Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Santarsiero

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A large share of reinforced concrete (RC framed buildings is provided with wide beams being a type of beam allowing greater freedom in the architectural arrangement of interiors, beyond further advantage due to fewer formworks needed during the construction. Nevertheless, little attention has been devoted to the seismic vulnerability of this kind of framed RC buildings as well as to the study of strengthening systems purposely developed for wide beams and wide beam-column connections. Under these premises, this paper proposes simple strengthening solutions made by Fibre Reinforced Polymers (FRP systems able to effectively improve seismic capacity through feasible arrangement suitable in case a wide beam is present. On the basis of wide beam-column joints previously tested without strengthening system, detailed nonlinear finite element models were calibrated. Then, an FRP strengthening intervention based on a brand new arrangement was modeled in order to perform additional simulations under seismic actions. This way, the effectiveness of the strengthening intervention was assessed finding out that significant strength and ductility increments were achieved with a relatively simple and cheap strengthening arrangement. Additional research would be desirable in the form of experimental tests on the simulated wide beam-column joints.

  14. A sampling-based Bayesian model for gas saturation estimationusing seismic AVA and marine CSEM data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Jinsong; Hoversten, Michael; Vasco, Don; Rubin, Yoram; Hou,Zhangshuan

    2006-04-04

    We develop a sampling-based Bayesian model to jointly invertseismic amplitude versus angles (AVA) and marine controlled-sourceelectromagnetic (CSEM) data for layered reservoir models. The porosityand fluid saturation in each layer of the reservoir, the seismic P- andS-wave velocity and density in the layers below and above the reservoir,and the electrical conductivity of the overburden are considered asrandom variables. Pre-stack seismic AVA data in a selected time windowand real and quadrature components of the recorded electrical field areconsidered as data. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplingmethods to obtain a large number of samples from the joint posteriordistribution function. Using those samples, we obtain not only estimatesof each unknown variable, but also its uncertainty information. Thedeveloped method is applied to both synthetic and field data to explorethe combined use of seismic AVA and EM data for gas saturationestimation. Results show that the developed method is effective for jointinversion, and the incorporation of CSEM data reduces uncertainty influid saturation estimation, when compared to results from inversion ofAVA data only.

  15. Detection of Natural Fractures from Observed Surface Seismic Data Based on a Linear-Slip Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huaizhen; Zhang, Guangzhi

    2018-03-01

    Natural fractures play an important role in migration of hydrocarbon fluids. Based on a rock physics effective model, the linear-slip model, which defines fracture parameters (fracture compliances) for quantitatively characterizing the effects of fractures on rock total compliance, we propose a method to detect natural fractures from observed seismic data via inversion for the fracture compliances. We first derive an approximate PP-wave reflection coefficient in terms of fracture compliances. Using the approximate reflection coefficient, we derive azimuthal elastic impedance as a function of fracture compliances. An inversion method to estimate fracture compliances from seismic data is presented based on a Bayesian framework and azimuthal elastic impedance, which is implemented in a two-step procedure: a least-squares inversion for azimuthal elastic impedance and an iterative inversion for fracture compliances. We apply the inversion method to synthetic and real data to verify its stability and reasonability. Synthetic tests confirm that the method can make a stable estimation of fracture compliances in the case of seismic data containing a moderate signal-to-noise ratio for Gaussian noise, and the test on real data reveals that reasonable fracture compliances are obtained using the proposed method.

  16. Bayesian nonlinear structural FE model and seismic input identification for damage assessment of civil structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astroza, Rodrigo; Ebrahimian, Hamed; Li, Yong; Conte, Joel P.

    2017-09-01

    A methodology is proposed to update mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures subjected to unknown input excitation. The approach allows to jointly estimate unknown time-invariant model parameters of a nonlinear FE model of the structure and the unknown time histories of input excitations using spatially-sparse output response measurements recorded during an earthquake event. The unscented Kalman filter, which circumvents the computation of FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown model parameters and unknown input excitations by using a deterministic sampling approach, is employed as the estimation tool. The use of measurement data obtained from arrays of heterogeneous sensors, including accelerometers, displacement sensors, and strain gauges is investigated. Based on the estimated FE model parameters and input excitations, the updated nonlinear FE model can be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and assess damage in the structure. Numerically simulated response data of a three-dimensional 4-story 2-by-1 bay steel frame structure with six unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation, and a three-dimensional 5-story 2-by-1 bay reinforced concrete frame structure with nine unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. The results of the validation studies show the excellent performance and robustness of the proposed algorithm to jointly estimate unknown FE model parameters and unknown input excitations.

  17. The Gassmann-Burgers Model to Simulate Seismic Waves at the Earth Crust And Mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcione, José M.; Poletto, Flavio; Farina, Biancamaria; Craglietto, Aronne

    2017-03-01

    The upper part of the crust shows generally brittle behaviour while deeper zones, including the mantle, may present ductile behaviour, depending on the pressure-temperature conditions; moreover, some parts are melted. Seismic waves can be used to detect these conditions on the basis of reflection and transmission events. Basically, from the elastic-plastic point of view the seismic properties (seismic velocity and density) depend on effective pressure and temperature. Confining and pore pressures have opposite effects on these properties, such that very small effective pressures (the presence of overpressured fluids) may substantially decrease the P- and S-wave velocities, mainly the latter, by opening of cracks and weakening of grain contacts. Similarly, high temperatures induce the same effect by partial melting. To model these effects, we consider a poro-viscoelastic model based on Gassmann equations and Burgers mechanical model to represent the properties of the rock frame and describe ductility in which deformation takes place by shear plastic flow. The Burgers elements allow us to model the effects of seismic attenuation, velocity dispersion and steady-state creep flow, respectively. The stiffness components of the brittle and ductile media depend on stress and temperature through the shear viscosity, which is obtained by the Arrhenius equation and the octahedral stress criterion. Effective pressure effects are taken into account in the dry-rock moduli using exponential functions whose parameters are obtained by fitting experimental data as a function of confining pressure. Since fluid effects are important, the density and bulk modulus of the saturating fluids (water and steam) are modeled using the equations provided by the NIST website, including supercritical behaviour. The theory allows us to obtain the phase velocity and quality factor as a function of depth and geological pressure and temperature as well as time frequency. We then obtain the PS and SH

  18. A linear allocation of spending-power system : consumer demand and portfolio model

    OpenAIRE

    Clements, Ken

    2017-01-01

    In the applied literature the household's consumption and portfolio decisions have tended to be viewed separately. This thesis is an initial attempt to remedy this. The household's demand for both commodities and assets, at a reasonably low level of aggregation, is integrated by using a tightly specified utility maximizing model. Utility is a function of both the flow of commodities consumed and the stock of assets held. The consumer demand literature is used as a starting point. The solutio...

  19. DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

    OpenAIRE

    S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi; N. Azad

    2012-01-01

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk o...

  20. Identification of temporal patterns in the seismicity of Sumatra using Poisson Hidden Markov models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Orfanogiannaki

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available On 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005 two large earthquakes occurred between the Indo-Australian and the southeastern Eurasian plates with moment magnitudes Mw=9.1 and Mw=8.6, respectively. Complete data (mb≥4.2 of the post-1993 time interval have been used to apply Poisson Hidden Markov models (PHMMs for identifying temporal patterns in the time series of the two earthquake sequences. Each time series consists of earthquake counts, in given and constant time units, in the regions determined by the aftershock zones of the two mainshocks. In PHMMs each count is generated by one of m different Poisson processes that are called states. The series of states is unobserved and is in fact a Markov chain. The model incorporates a varying seismicity rate, it assigns a different rate to each state and it detects the changes on the rate over time. In PHMMs unobserved factors, related to the local properties of the region are considered affecting the earthquake occurrence rate. Estimation and interpretation of the unobserved sequence of states that underlie the data contribute to better understanding of the geophysical processes that take place in the region. We applied PHMMs to the time series of the two mainshocks and we estimated the unobserved sequences of states that underlie the data. The results obtained showed that the region of the 26 December 2004 earthquake was in state of low seismicity during almost the entire observation period. On the contrary, in the region of the 28 March 2005 earthquake the seismic activity is attributed to triggered seismicity, due to stress transfer from the region of the 2004 mainshock.

  1. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 2. Dynamic implications of geodynamic simulations validated with laboratory models

    KAUST Repository

    van Dinther, Y.

    2013-04-01

    The physics governing the seismic cycle at seismically active subduction zones remains poorly understood due to restricted direct observations in time and space. To investigate subduction zone dynamics and associated interplate seismicity, we validate a continuum, visco-elasto-plastic numerical model with a new laboratory approach (Paper 1). The analogous laboratory setup includes a visco-elastic gelatin wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate with defined velocity-weakening and -strengthening regions. Our geodynamic simulation approach includes velocity-weakening friction to spontaneously generate a series of fast frictional instabilities that correspond to analog earthquakes. A match between numerical and laboratory source parameters is obtained when velocity-strengthening is applied in the aseismic regions to stabilize the rupture. Spontaneous evolution of absolute stresses leads to nucleation by coalescence of neighboring patches, mainly occurring at evolving asperities near the seismogenic zone limits. Consequently, a crack-, or occasionally even pulse-like, rupture propagates toward the opposite side of the seismogenic zone by increasing stresses ahead of its rupture front, until it arrests on a barrier. The resulting surface displacements qualitatively agree with geodetic observations and show landward and, from near the downdip limit, upward interseismic motions. These are rebound and reversed coseismically. This slip increases adjacent stresses, which are relaxed postseismically by afterslip and thereby produce persistent seaward motions. The wide range of observed physical phenomena, including back-propagation and repeated slip, and the agreement with laboratory results demonstrate that visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models with rate-dependent friction form a new tool that can greatly contribute to our understanding of the seismic cycle at subduction zones.

  2. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 2. Dynamic implications of geodynamic simulations validated with laboratory models

    KAUST Repository

    van Dinther, Y.; Gerya, T. V.; Dalguer, L. A.; Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2013-01-01

    The physics governing the seismic cycle at seismically active subduction zones remains poorly understood due to restricted direct observations in time and space. To investigate subduction zone dynamics and associated interplate seismicity, we validate a continuum, visco-elasto-plastic numerical model with a new laboratory approach (Paper 1). The analogous laboratory setup includes a visco-elastic gelatin wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate with defined velocity-weakening and -strengthening regions. Our geodynamic simulation approach includes velocity-weakening friction to spontaneously generate a series of fast frictional instabilities that correspond to analog earthquakes. A match between numerical and laboratory source parameters is obtained when velocity-strengthening is applied in the aseismic regions to stabilize the rupture. Spontaneous evolution of absolute stresses leads to nucleation by coalescence of neighboring patches, mainly occurring at evolving asperities near the seismogenic zone limits. Consequently, a crack-, or occasionally even pulse-like, rupture propagates toward the opposite side of the seismogenic zone by increasing stresses ahead of its rupture front, until it arrests on a barrier. The resulting surface displacements qualitatively agree with geodetic observations and show landward and, from near the downdip limit, upward interseismic motions. These are rebound and reversed coseismically. This slip increases adjacent stresses, which are relaxed postseismically by afterslip and thereby produce persistent seaward motions. The wide range of observed physical phenomena, including back-propagation and repeated slip, and the agreement with laboratory results demonstrate that visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models with rate-dependent friction form a new tool that can greatly contribute to our understanding of the seismic cycle at subduction zones.

  3. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  4. China’s primary energy demands in 2020: Predictions from an MPSO–RBF estimation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Mix-encoding PSO and RBF network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed. ► The proposed model has simpler structure and smaller estimated errors than other ANN models. ► China’s energy demand could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons tce. ► China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009. - Abstract: In the present study, a Mix-encoding Particle Swarm Optimization and Radial Basis Function (MPSO–RBF) network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed and applied to forecast China’s energy consumption until 2020. The energy demand is analyzed for the period from 1980 to 2009 based on GDP, population, proportion of industry in GDP, urbanization rate, and share of coal energy. The results reveal that the proposed MPSO–RBF based model has fewer hidden nodes and smaller estimated errors compared with other ANN-based estimation models. The average annual growth of China’s energy demand will be 6.70%, 2.81%, and 5.08% for the period between 2010 and 2020 in three scenarios and could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons coal equivalent in 2020. Regardless of future scenarios, China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009.

  5. Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

    2013-11-01

    This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

  6. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-15

    source outside the basin, small solid box beneath Ama. Little waveform distortion is observed along the path towsrds Pasadena (upper four trames) while...effects not accounted for in the wed and analytical solutions were derived for soluble interpretations given (Nuttli 1973, 1978, 1981; Herman & special...in a trnition region of COUPLING lengh L. The hybrid method used in the present study allows the the layering. Several types of solutions for models

  7. [Application of job demands-resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potocka, Adrianna; Waszkowska, Małgorzata

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p job resources and job demands [F(1.474) = 4.004; F(1.474) = 4.166; p job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474) = 2.748; p job demands and personal resources [F(3.474) = 3.021; p job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1) in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001) or low (p = 0.0157); 2) when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001). The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees.

  8. Evaluation of seismic reliability of steel moment resisting frames rehabilitated by concentric braces with probabilistic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fateme Rezaei

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Probability of structure failure which has been designed by "deterministic methods" can be more than the one which has been designed in similar situation using probabilistic methods and models considering "uncertainties". The main purpose of this research was to evaluate the seismic reliability of steel moment resisting frames rehabilitated with concentric braces by probabilistic models. To do so, three-story and nine-story steel moment resisting frames were designed based on resistant criteria of Iranian code and then they were rehabilitated based on controlling drift limitations by concentric braces. Probability of frames failure was evaluated by probabilistic models of magnitude, location of earthquake, ground shaking intensity in the area of the structure, probabilistic model of building response (based on maximum lateral roof displacement and probabilistic methods. These frames were analyzed under subcrustal source by sampling probabilistic method "Risk Tools" (RT. Comparing the exceedance probability of building response curves (or selected points on it of the three-story and nine-story model frames (before and after rehabilitation, seismic response of rehabilitated frames, was reduced and their reliability was improved. Also the main effective variables in reducing the probability of frames failure were determined using sensitivity analysis by FORM probabilistic method. The most effective variables reducing the probability of frames failure are  in the magnitude model, ground shaking intensity model error and magnitude model error

  9. The Burgers/squirt-flow seismic model of the crust and mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcione, José M.; Poletto, Flavio; Farina, Biancamaria

    2018-01-01

    Part of the crust shows generally brittle behaviour while areas of high temperature and/or high pore pressure, including the mantle, may present ductile behaviour. For instance, the potential heat source of geothermal fields, overpressured formations and molten rocks. Seismic waves can be used to detect these conditions on the basis of reflection and transmission events. Basically, from the elastic-plastic point of view the seismic properties (seismic velocity, quality factor and density) depend on effective pressure and temperature. Confining and pore pressures have opposite effects on these properties, and high temperatures may induce a similar behaviour by partial melting. In order to model these effects, we consider a poro-viscoelastic model based on the Burgers mechanical element and the squirt-flow model to represent the properties of the rock frame to describe ductility in which deformation takes place by shear plastic flow, and to model local and global fluid flow effects. The Burgers element allows us to model the effects of the steady-state creep flow on the dry-rock frame. The stiffness components of the brittle and ductile media depend on stress and temperature through the shear viscosity, which is obtained by the Arrhenius equation and the octahedral stress criterion. Effective pressure effects are taken into account in the dry-rock moduli by using exponential functions whose parameters are obtained by fitting experimental data as a function of confining pressure. Since fluid effects are important, the density and bulk modulus of the saturating fluids (water at sub- and supercritical conditions) are modeled by using the equations provided by the NIST website. The squirt-flow model has a single free parameter represented by the aspect ratio of the grain contacts. The theory generalizes a preceding theory based on Gassmann (low-frequency) moduli to the more general case of the presence of local (squirt) flow and global (Biot) flow, which contribute with

  10. Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.

    1990-01-01

    The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)

  11. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  12. Location Model for Distribution Centers for Fulfilling Electronic Orders of Fresh Foods under Uncertain Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of locating distribution centers for delivering fresh food as a part of electronic commerce is a strategic decision problem for enterprises. This paper establishes a model for locating distribution centers that considers the uncertainty of customer demands for fresh goods in terms of time-sensitiveness and freshness. Based on the methodology of robust optimization in dealing with uncertain problems, this paper optimizes the location model in discrete demand probabilistic scenarios. In this paper, an improved fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the distribution center location problem. An example is given to show that the proposed model and algorithm are robust and can effectively handle the complications caused by uncertain demand. The model proposed in this paper proves valuable both theoretically and practically in the selection of locations of distribution centers.

  13. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.

  14. Psychosocial work environment and health in U.S. metropolitan areas: a test of the demand-control and demand-control-support models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntaner, C; Schoenbach, C

    1994-01-01

    The authors use confirmatory factor analysis to investigate the psychosocial dimensions of work environments relevant to health outcomes, in a representative sample of five U.S. metropolitan areas. Through an aggregated inference system, scales from Schwartz and associates' job scoring system and from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) were employed to examine two alternative models: the demand-control model of Karasek and Theorell and Johnson's demand-control-support model. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the two models. The two multidimensional models yielded better fits than an unstructured model. After allowing for the measurement error variance due to the method of assessment (Schwartz and associates' system or DOT), both models yielded acceptable goodness-of-fit indices, but the fit of the demand-control-support model was significantly better. Overall these results indicate that the dimensions of Control (substantive complexity of work, skill discretion, decision authority), Demands (physical exertion, physical demands and hazards), and Social Support (coworker and supervisor social supports) provide an acceptable account of the psychosocial dimensions of work associated with health outcomes.

  15. The active learning hypothesis of the job-demand-control model: an experimental examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häusser, Jan Alexander; Schulz-Hardt, Stefan; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The active learning hypothesis of the job-demand-control model [Karasek, R. A. 1979. "Job Demands, Job Decision Latitude, and Mental Strain: Implications for Job Redesign." Administration Science Quarterly 24: 285-307] proposes positive effects of high job demands and high job control on performance. We conducted a 2 (demands: high vs. low) × 2 (control: high vs. low) experimental office workplace simulation to examine this hypothesis. Since performance during a work simulation is confounded by the boundaries of the demands and control manipulations (e.g. time limits), we used a post-test, in which participants continued working at their task, but without any manipulation of demands and control. This post-test allowed for examining active learning (transfer) effects in an unconfounded fashion. Our results revealed that high demands had a positive effect on quantitative performance, without affecting task accuracy. In contrast, high control resulted in a speed-accuracy tradeoff, that is participants in the high control conditions worked slower but with greater accuracy than participants in the low control conditions.

  16. Energy demand modelling: pointing out alternative energy sources. The example of industry in OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renou, P.

    1992-01-01

    This thesis studies energy demand and alternative energy sources in OECD countries. In the first part, the principle models usually used for energy demand modelling. In the second part, the author studies the flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, generalized quadratic, Fourier) to obtain an estimation of the production function. In the third part, several examples are given, chosen in seven countries (Usa, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada). Energy systems analysis in these countries, can help to choose models and gives informations on alternative energies. 246 refs., 24 figs., 27 tabs

  17. Analysis of an inventory model for both linearly decreasing demand and holding cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, A. K.; Singh, Parth Raj; Tomar, Ajay; Kumar, Satish; Yadav, S. K.

    2016-03-01

    This study proposes the analysis of an inventory model for linearly decreasing demand and holding cost for non-instantaneous deteriorating items. The inventory model focuses on commodities having linearly decreasing demand without shortages. The holding cost doesn't remain uniform with time due to any form of variation in the time value of money. Here we consider that the holding cost decreases with respect to time. The optimal time interval for the total profit and the optimal order quantity are determined. The developed inventory model is pointed up through a numerical example. It also includes the sensitivity analysis.

  18. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  19. Capturing well-being in activity pattern models within activity-based travel demand models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The activity-based approach which is based on the premise that the demand for travel is derived : from the demand for activities, currently constitutes the state of the art in metropolitan travel : demand forecasting and particularly in a form known ...

  20. Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

  1. Seismic Modeling Of Reservoir Heterogeneity Scales: An Application To Gas Hydrate Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Bellefleur, G.; Milkereit, B.

    2008-12-01

    Natural gas hydrates, a type of inclusion compound or clathrate, are composed of gas molecules trapped within a cage of water molecules. The occurrence of gas hydrates in permafrost regions has been confirmed by core samples recovered from the Mallik gas hydrate research wells located within Mackenzie Delta in Northwest Territories of Canada. Strong vertical variations of compressional and shear sonic velocities and weak surface seismic expressions of gas hydrates indicate that lithological heterogeneities control the distribution of hydrates. Seismic scattering studies predict that typical scales and strong physical contrasts due to gas hydrate concentration will generate strong forward scattering, leaving only weak energy captured by surface receivers. In order to understand the distribution of hydrates and the seismic scattering effects, an algorithm was developed to construct heterogeneous petrophysical reservoir models. The algorithm was based on well logs showing power law features and Gaussian or Non-Gaussian probability density distribution, and was designed to honor the whole statistical features of well logs such as the characteristic scales and the correlation among rock parameters. Multi-dimensional and multi-variable heterogeneous models representing the same statistical properties were constructed and applied to the heterogeneity analysis of gas hydrate reservoirs. The petrophysical models provide the platform to estimate rock physics properties as well as to study the impact of seismic scattering, wave mode conversion, and their integration on wave behavior in heterogeneous reservoirs. Using the Biot-Gassmann theory, the statistical parameters obtained from Mallik 5L-38, and the correlation length estimated from acoustic impedance inversion, gas hydrate volume fraction in Mallik area was estimated to be 1.8%, approximately 2x108 m3 natural gas stored in a hydrate bearing interval within 0.25 km2 lateral extension and between 889 m and 1115 m depth

  2. Seismic assessment of Kozloduy WWER-440, model 230 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, P.; Baltus, R.; Yanev, P.; Campbell, R.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary report is given of the findings of an IAEA sponsored walkdown of the WWER-440, model 230 at Kozloduy, in May 1991. The scope of the IAEA mission was to determine the lower bound seismic capacity of the plant and to make recommendations for improvements to increase the earthquake resistance. The methodology utilized in the assessment is that used for evaluation of the seismic margin in U.S. nuclear power plants subjected to earthquakes beyond their design basis. Included in the assessment is the establishment of a safe shutdown path which would include the capacity to mitigate a small break in the primary system, performance of a walkdown of the safe shutdown path and calculation of the high-confidence-of-low-probability-of-failure (HCLPF) of the safe shutdown path. Excluding system design deficiency relative to U.S. and Western Europe standards, it was found that the plant has many seismic vulnerabilities similar to those that existed in many of the U.S. plants prior to about 1979 when the Systematic Evaluation Program was initiated. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig

  3. Two-dimensional vertical model seismic test and analysis for HTGR core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, Takeshi; Honma, Toshiaki.

    1983-02-01

    The resistance against earthquakes of high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) core with block-type fuels is not fully ascertained yet. Seismic studies must be made if such a reactor plant is to be installed in areas with frequent earthquakes. In the paper the test results of seismic behavior of a half-scale two-dimensional vertical slice core model and analysis are presented. The following results were obtained: (1) With soft spring support of the fixed side reflector structure, the relative column displacement is larger than that for hand support but the impact reaction force is smaller. (2) In the case of hard spring support the dowel force is smaller than for soft support. (3) The relative column displacement is larger in the core center than at the periphery. The impact acceleration (force) in the center is smaller than at the periphery. (4) The relative column displacement and impact reaction force are smaller with the gas pressure simulation spring than without. (5) With decreasing gap width between the top blocks of columns, the relative column displacement and impact reaction force decrease. (6) The column damping ratio was estimated as 4 -- 10% of critical. (7) The maximum impact reaction force for random waves such as seismic was below 60% that for a sinusoidal wave. (8) Vibration behavior and impact response are in good agreement between test and analysis. (author)

  4. Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

  5. Scrutinizing individuals’ leisure-shopping travel decisions to appraise activity-based models of travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Kusamastuti (Diana); E. Hannes (Els); D. Janssens (Davy); G. Wets (Geert); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractActivity-based models for modeling individuals’ travel demand have come to a new era in addressing individuals’ and households’ travel behavior on a disaggregate level. Quantitative data are mainly used in this domain to enable a realistic representation of individual choices and a true

  6. The role of career competencies in the Job Demands: Resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, J.; Schaufeli, W.B.; Brenninkmeijer, V.; Blonk, R.W.B.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the role of career competencies as a mediator in the Job Demands — Resources model. Structural equation modeling with data from 305 young employed persons aged 16–30 years showed that career competencies are positively related to job resources and work engagement, but not to

  7. A multi-scale energy demand model suggests sharing market risks with intelligent energy cooperatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Methenitis (Georgios); M. Kaisers (Michael); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we propose a multi-scale model of energy demand that is consistent with observations at a macro scale, in our use-case standard load profiles for (residential) electric loads. We employ the model to study incentives to assume the risk of volatile market prices for

  8. The Demand-Control-Support model and intent to leave across six European Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widerszal-Bazyl, Maria; Radkiewicz, Piotr; Hasselhorn, Hans Martin; Conway, Paul Maurice; van der Heijden, Beatrice

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the explanatory power of the Demand-Control-Support (DCS) model for intent to leave (ITL) a job was tested, with employment opportunities (EO) taken into consideration. It was hypothesized that, when employment opportunities are low, the explanatory power of the DCS model for ITL is

  9. A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, Joakim; Waeckelgard, Ewa

    2010-01-01

    Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models.

  10. Better Water Demand and Pipe Description Improve the Distribution Network Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distribution system modeling simplifies pipe network in skeletonization and simulates the flow and water quality by using generalized water demand patterns. While widely used, the approach has not been examined fully on how it impacts the modeling fidelity. This study intends to ...

  11. Pseudo dynamic transitional modeling of building heating energy demand using artificial neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, S.; Elmtiri, M.; Kling, W.L.; Corre, le O.; Lacarriere, B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the building heating demand prediction model with occupancy profile and operational heating power level characteristics in short time horizon (a couple of days) using artificial neural network. In addition, novel pseudo dynamic transitional model is introduced, which consider

  12. Burnout and Connectedness among Australian Volunteers: A Test of the Job Demands-Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewig, Kerry A.; Xanthopoulou, Despoina; Bakker, Arnold B.; Dollard, Maureen F.; Metzer, Jacques C.

    2007-01-01

    This study used the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, developed in the context of occupational well-being in the paid workforce, to examine the antecedents of burnout and connectedness in the formal volunteer rural ambulance officer vocation (N=487). Structural equation modeling using self-reports provide strong evidence for the central…

  13. A model to assess water tariffs as part of water demand management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... to calculate the predicted change in water use and the associated income. The model takes into account variation in price elasticity per tariff block. The effectiveness of the model as a planning tool is illustrated through an appropriate example. Keywords: water demand management, price elasticity, change in water tariff, ...

  14. The Role of Career Competencies in the Job Demands-Resources Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, J.; Schaufeli, W.B.; Brenninkmeijer, V.; Blonk, R.W.B.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the role of career competencies as a mediator in the Job Demands - Resources model. Structural equation modeling with data from 305 young employed persons aged 16-30 years showed that career competencies are positively related to job resources and work engagement, but not to

  15. Demand estimation of bus as a public transport based on gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asmael Noor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Bus as a public transport is a suitable service to meet the travel demand between any two zones. Baghdad faced with severe traffic problems along with the development in city size and economy. Passengers have to wait lots of time during commutation to work because of the serious traffic jams. In the last years, rate of car ownership has increased as income levels have gone up and cars have become a preferable mode of transport. Bus, as the only public mode of transport available, is suffering from inconvenience, slowness, and inflexibility. A big emphasis must be given to the public transport system because it introduces an active utilization of limited resources, energy and land. This study determines the demand of public routes for buses using boarding / alighting values to generate a model and assign these demand values to the bus network. Five public routes were selected to collect the required data. Ride check and Point check survey was conducted for each selected route. The results of this study were public demand assigned to the selected bus routes, dwell time, load factor and headway. It is observed that R1 and R3 have the heaviest travel demand; they need special study to improve bus performance and make better transit. The model developed with only limited data available to predict travel demand will assist transportation planners and related agencies in decision making.

  16. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  17. A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Á.; Gómez, J.B.; Vázquez-Prada, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual....... Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault...... models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized...

  18. The role of workaholism in the job demands-resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, Monica; Bakker, Arnold B; Ghislieri, Chiara

    2016-07-01

    The present study tries to gain more insight in workaholism by investigating its antecedents and consequences using the job demands-resources model. We hypothesized that job demands would be positively related to workaholism, particularly when job resources are low. In addition, we hypothesized that workaholism would be positively related to negative outcomes in three important life domains: health, family, and work. The research involved 617 Italian workers (employees and self-employed). To test the hypotheses we applied structural equation modeling (SEM) and moderated structural equation modeling (MSEM) using Mplus 6. The results of SEM showed a good model where workload, cognitive demands, emotional demands, and customer-related social stressors were positively related to workaholism and work-family conflict (WFC) (partial mediation). Additionally, workaholism was indirectly related to exhaustion and intentions to change jobs through WFC. Moreover, MSEM analyses confirmed that job resources (job security and opportunities for development) buffered the relationship between job demands and workaholism. Particularly, the interaction effects were statistically significant in five out of eight combinations. These findings suggest that workaholism is a function of a suboptimal work environment and predicts unfavorable employee outcomes. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

  19. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  20. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  1. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  2. Workplace bullying: A perspective from the Job Demands-Resources model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja van den Broeck

    2011-05-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of the study was to test the work environment hypothesis by applying the Job Demands-Resources model to workplace bullying. We expected job demands and job resources to relate to both perpetrators’ and actors’ reports of workplace bullying. Motivation for the study: We aimed to extend the outcomes examined in the Job Demands- Resources model to a specific form of counterproductive interpersonal behaviour, namely workplace bullying. From the point of view of the literature on bullying, we aimed to substantiate the well-known work environment hypothesis with empirical data. Research design, approach and method: We applied structural equation modelling on questionnaire data of a large heterogeneous sample of Flemish employees (N = 749. Main findings: Job demands and job resources interacted in the prediction of perpetrators’ reports of bullying: job demands associated positively to perpetrators’ reports of bullying particularly under the condition of high job resources. Job demands related positively to targets’ reports of bullying, while job resources related negatively. These associations were (partially mediated by emotional exhaustion. Practical/managerial implications: These results suggest that workplace bullying may indeed be reduced by good job design, that is, by limiting the job demands and increasing job resources. Particular prevention plans may be developed for exhausted employees, as they are vulnerable to workplace bullying, in terms of both becoming perpetrators and victims. Contribution/value-add: This study attests to the predictive validity of the JD-R model for perpetrators’ and targets’ reports of workplace bullying. The findings also underline the complex and multi-causal nature of workplace bullying.

  3. Centrifuge model test of rock slope failure caused by seismic excitation. Plane failure of dip slope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishimaru, Makoto; Kawai, Tadashi

    2008-01-01

    Recently, it is necessary to assess quantitatively seismic safety of critical facilities against the earthquake induced rock slope failure from the viewpoint of seismic PSA. Under these circumstances, it is essential to evaluate more accurately the possibilities of rock slope failure and the potential failure boundary, which are triggered by earthquake ground motions. The purpose of this study is to analyze dynamic failure characteristics of rock slopes by centrifuge model tests for verification and improvement of the analytical methods. We conducted a centrifuge model test using a dip slope model with discontinuities limitated by Teflon sheets. The centrifugal acceleration was 50G, and the acceleration amplitude of input sin waves increased gradually at every step. The test results were compared with safety factors of the stability analysis based on the limit equilibrium concept. Resultant conclusions are mainly as follows: (1) The slope model collapsed when it was excited by the sine wave of 400gal, which was converted to real field scale, (2) Artificial discontinuities were considerably concerned in the collapse, and the type of collapse was plane failure, (3) From response acceleration records observed at the slope model, we can say that tension cracks were generated near the top of the slope model during excitation, and that might be cause of the collapse, (4) By considering generation of the tension cracks in the stability analysis, correspondence of the analytical results and the experimental results improved. From the obtained results, we need to consider progressive failure in evaluating earthquake induced rock slope failure. (author)

  4. An Ensemble Model for Co-Seismic Landslide Susceptibility Using GIS and Random Forest Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchita Shrestha

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake of 25 April 2015 triggered thousands of landslides in the central part of the Nepal Himalayas. The main goal of this study was to generate an ensemble-based map of co-seismic landslide susceptibility in Sindhupalchowk District using model comparison and combination strands. A total of 2194 co-seismic landslides were identified and were randomly split into 1536 (~70%, to train data for establishing the model, and the remaining 658 (~30% for the validation of the model. Frequency ratio, evidential belief function, and weight of evidence methods were applied and compared using 11 different causative factors (peak ground acceleration, epicenter proximity, fault proximity, geology, elevation, slope, plan curvature, internal relief, drainage proximity, stream power index, and topographic wetness index to prepare the landslide susceptibility map. An ensemble of random forest was then used to overcome the various prediction limitations of the individual models. The success rates and prediction capabilities were critically compared using the area under the curve (AUC of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC. By synthesizing the results of the various models into a single score, the ensemble model improved accuracy and provided considerably more realistic prediction capacities (91% than the frequency ratio (81.2%, evidential belief function (83.5% methods, and weight of evidence (80.1%.

  5. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The Effect of the Demand Control and Effort Reward Imbalance Models on the Academic Burnout of Korean Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jayoung; Puig, Ana; Lee, Sang Min

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the Demand Control Model (DCM) and the Effort Reward Imbalance Model (ERIM) on academic burnout for Korean students. Specifically, this study identified the effects of the predictor variables based on DCM and ERIM (i.e., demand, control, effort, reward, Demand Control Ratio, Effort Reward…

  7. SEISMIC DESIGN CRITERIA FOR NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, R. A.

    1963-10-15

    The nature of nuclear power reactors demands an exceptionally high degree of seismic integrity. Considerations involved in defining earthquake resistance requirements are discussed. Examples of seismic design criteria and applications of the spectrum technique are described. (auth)

  8. Application of Job Demands-Resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands

    OpenAIRE

    Adrianna Potocka; Małgorzata Waszkowska

    2013-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. Materials and Methods: The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. Results: The results showed that job satisfaction increased with...

  9. GRACE gravity data help constraining seismic models of the 2004 Sumatran earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambiotti, G.; Bordoni, A.; Sabadini, R.; Colli, L.

    2011-10-01

    The analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 2 data time series from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) allows us to extract a new estimate of the co-seismic gravity signal due to the 2004 Sumatran earthquake. Owing to compressible self-gravitating Earth models, including sea level feedback in a new self-consistent way and designed to compute gravitational perturbations due to volume changes separately, we are able to prove that the asymmetry in the co-seismic gravity pattern, in which the north-eastern negative anomaly is twice as large as the south-western positive anomaly, is not due to the previously overestimated dilatation in the crust. The overestimate was due to a large dilatation localized at the fault discontinuity, the gravitational effect of which is compensated by an opposite contribution from topography due to the uplifted crust. After this localized dilatation is removed, we instead predict compression in the footwall and dilatation in the hanging wall. The overall anomaly is then mainly due to the additional gravitational effects of the ocean after water is displaced away from the uplifted crust, as first indicated by de Linage et al. (2009). We also detail the differences between compressible and incompressible material properties. By focusing on the most robust estimates from GRACE data, consisting of the peak-to-peak gravity anomaly and an asymmetry coefficient, that is given by the ratio of the negative gravity anomaly over the positive anomaly, we show that they are quite sensitive to seismic source depths and dip angles. This allows us to exploit space gravity data for the first time to help constraining centroid-momentum-tensor (CMT) source analyses of the 2004 Sumatran earthquake and to conclude that the seismic moment has been released mainly in the lower crust rather than the lithospheric mantle. Thus, GRACE data and CMT source analyses, as well as geodetic slip distributions aided

  10. Simulation of seismic waves in the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) using a Burgers model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletto, Flavio; Farina, Biancamaria; Carcione, José Maria

    2014-05-01

    The seismic characterization of the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) in the Earth's crust is of great importance for the study of high-enthalpy geothermal fields in the proximity of magmatic zones. It is well known that the BDT can be viewed as the transition between zones with viscoelastic and plastic behavior, i.e., the transition between the upper, cooler, brittle crustal zone, and the deeper ductile zone. Depending on stress and temperature conditions, the BDT behavior is basically determined by the viscosity of the crustal rocks, which acts as a key factor. In situ shear stress and temperature are related to shear viscosity and steady-state creep flow through the Arrhenius equation, and deviatory stress by octahedral stress criterion. We present a numerical approach to simulate the propagation of P-S and SH seismic waves in a 2D model of the heterogeneous Earth's crust. The full-waveform simulation code is based on a Burgers mechanical model (Carcione, 2007), which enables us to describe both the seismic attenuation effects and the steady-state creep flow (Carcione and Poletto, 2013; Carcione et al. 2013). The differential equations of motion are calculated for the Burgers model, and recast in the velocity-stress formulation. Equations are solved in the time domain using memory variables. The approach uses a direct method based on the Runge-Kutta technique, and the Fourier pseudo-spectral methods, for time integration and for spatial derivation, respectively. In this simulation we assume isotropic models. To test the code, the signals generated by the full-waveform simulation algorithm are compared with success to analytic solutions obtained with different shear viscosities. Moreover, synthetic results are calculated to simulate surface and VSP seismograms in a realistic rheological model with a dramatic temperature change, to study the observability of BDT by seismic reflection methods. The medium corresponds to a selected rheology of the Iceland scenario

  11. Theoretical models for crustal displacement assessment and monitoring in Vrancea-Focsani seismic zone by integrated remote sensing and local geophysical data for seismic prognosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoran, Maria; Ciobanu, Mircea; Mitrea, Marius Gabriel; Talianu, Camelia; Cotarlan, Costel; Mateciuc, Doru; Radulescu, Florin; Biter Mircea

    2002-01-01

    The majority of strong Romanian earthquakes has the origin in Vrancea region. Subduction of the Black Sea Sub-Plate under the Pannonian Plate produces faulting processes. Crustal displacement identification and monitoring is very important for a seismically active area like Vrancea-Focsani. Earthquake displacements are very well revealed by satellite remote sensing data. At the same time, geomorphologic analysis of topographic maps is carried out and particularly longitudinal and transverse profiles are constructed, as well as structural-geomorphologic maps. Faults are interpreted by specific features in nature of relief, straightness of line of river beds and their tributaries, exits of springs, etc. Remote sensing analysis and field studies of active faults can provide a geologic history that overcomes many of the shortcomings of instrumental and historic records. Our theoretical models developed in the frame of this project are presented as follows: a) Spectral Mixture Analysis model of geomorphological and topographic characteristics for Vrancea region proposed for satellite images analysis which assumes that the different classes present in a pixel (image unit) contribute independently to its reflectance. Therefore, the reflectance of a pixel at a particular frequency is the sum of the reflectances of the components at that frequency. The same test region in Vrancea area is imaged at several different frequencies (spectral bands), leading to multispectral observations for each pixel. It is useful to merge different satellite data into a hybrid image with high spatial and spectral resolution to create detailed images map of the abundance of various materials within the scene based on material spectral fingerprint. Image fusion produces a high-resolution multispectral image that is then unmixed into high-resolution material maps. b) Model of seismic cross section analysis which is applied in seismic active zones morphology. Since a seismic section can be

  12. 0-6759 : developing a business process and logical model to support a tour-based travel demand model design for TxDOT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    The Texas Department of Transportation : (TxDOT) created a standardized trip-based : modeling approach for travel demand modeling : called the Texas Package Suite of Travel Demand : Models (referred to as the Texas Package) to : oversee the travel de...

  13. A California statewide three-dimensional seismic velocity model from both absolute and differential times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, G.; Thurber, C.H.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.M.; Waldhauser, F.; Brocher, T.M.; Hardebeck, J.

    2010-01-01

    We obtain a seismic velocity model of the California crust and uppermost mantle using a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm. We begin by using absolute arrival-time picks to solve for a coarse three-dimensional (3D) P velocity (VP) model with a uniform 30 km horizontal node spacing, which we then use as the starting model for a finer-scale inversion using double-difference tomography applied to absolute and differential pick times. For computational reasons, we split the state into 5 subregions with a grid spacing of 10 to 20 km and assemble our final statewide VP model by stitching together these local models. We also solve for a statewide S-wave model using S picks from both the Southern California Seismic Network and USArray, assuming a starting model based on the VP results and a VP=VS ratio of 1.732. Our new model has improved areal coverage compared with previous models, extending 570 km in the SW-NE directionand 1320 km in the NW-SE direction. It also extends to greater depth due to the inclusion of substantial data at large epicentral distances. Our VP model generally agrees with previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, but we also observe some new features, such as high-velocity anomalies at shallow depths in the Klamath Mountains and Mount Shasta area, somewhat slow velocities in the northern Coast Ranges, and slow anomalies beneath the Sierra Nevada at midcrustal and greater depths. This model can be applied to a variety of regional-scale studies in California, such as developing a unified statewide earthquake location catalog and performing regional waveform modeling.

  14. Global seasonal strain and stress models derived from GRACE loading, and their impact on seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanard, K.; Fleitout, L.; Calais, E.; Craig, T. J.; Rebischung, P.; Avouac, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Loading by continental water, atmosphere and oceans deforms the Earth at various spatio-temporal scales, inducing crustal and mantelic stress perturbations that may play a role in earthquake triggering.Deformation of the Earth by this surface loading is observed in GNSS position time series. While various models predict well vertical observations, explaining horizontal displacements remains challenging. We model the elastic deformation induced by loading derived from GRACE for coefficients 2 and higher. We estimate the degree-1 deformation field by comparison between predictions of our model and IGS-repro2 solutions at a globally distributed network of 700 GNSS sites, separating the horizontal and vertical components to avoid biases between components. The misfit between model and data is reduced compared to previous studies, particularly on the horizontal component. The associated geocenter motion time series are consistent with results derived from other datasets. We also discuss the impact on our results of systematic errors in GNSS geodetic products, in particular of the draconitic error.We then compute stress tensors time series induced by GRACE loads and discuss the potential link between large scale seasonal mass redistributions and seismicity. Within the crust, we estimate hydrologically induced stresses in the intraplate New Madrid Seismic Zone, where secular stressing rates are unmeasurably low. We show that a significant variation in the rate of micro-earthquakes at annual and multi-annual timescales coincides with stresses induced by hydrological loading in the upper Mississippi embayment, with no significant phase-lag, directly modulating regional seismicity. We also investigate pressure variations in the mantle transition zone and discuss potential correlations between the statistically significant observed seasonality of deep-focus earthquakes, most likely due to mineralogical transformations, and surface hydrological loading.

  15. Attenuation of seismic waves and the universal rheological model of the Earth's mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birger, B. I.

    2007-08-01

    Analysis of results of laboratory studies on creep of mantle rocks, data on seismic wave attenuation in the mantle, and rheological micromechanisms shows that the universal, i.e., relevant to all time scales, rheological model of the mantle can be represented as four rheological elements connected in series. These elements account for elasticity, diffusion rheology, high temperature dislocation rheology, and low temperature dislocation rheology. The diffusion rheology element is described in terms of a Newtonian viscous fluid. The high temperature dislocation rheology element is described by the rheological model previously proposed by the author. This model is a combination of a power-law non-Newtonian fluid model for stationary flows and the linear hereditary Andrade model for flows associated with small strains. The low temperature dislocation rheology element is described by the linear hereditary Lomnitz model.

  16. Modelling of internal structure in seismic analysis of a PHWR building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.; Kushawaha, H.S.; Ingle, R.K.; Subramanian, K.V.

    1991-01-01

    Seismic analysis of complex and large structures, consisting of thick shear walls, such as Reactor Building is very involved and time consuming. It is a standard practice to model the structure as a stick model to predict reasonably the dynamic behaviour of the structure. It is required to determine approximate equivalent sectional properties of Internal Structure for representation in the stick model. The restraint to warping can change the stress distribution thus affecting the centre of rigidity and torsional inertia, Hence, standard formulae does not hold good for determination of sectional properties of the Internal Structure. In this case the equivalent sectional properties for the Internal Structure are calculated using a Finite Element Model (FEM) of the Internal Structure and applying unit horizontal forces in each direction. A 3-D stick model is developed using the guidelines. Using the properties calculated by FEM and also by standard formulae, the responses of the 3-D stick model are compared. (J.P.N.)

  17. Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

    2011-09-15

    The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

  18. Row of fuel assemblies analysis under seismic loading: Modelling and experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricciardi, Guillaume; Bellizzi, Sergio; Collard, Bruno; Cochelin, Bruno

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a numerical model for predicting the impact behaviour at fuel assembly level of a whole reactor core under seismic loading conditions. This model was based on a porous medium approach accounting for the dynamics of both the fluid and structure, which interact. The fluid is studied in the whole reactor core domain and each fuel assembly is modelled in the form of a deformable porous medium with a nonlinear constitutive law. The contact between fuel assemblies is modelled in the form of elastic stops, so that the impact forces can be assessed. Simulations were performed to predict the dynamics of a six fuel assemblies row immersed in stagnant water and the whole apparatus was placed on a shaking table mimicking seismic loading conditions. The maximum values of the impact forces predicted by the model were in good agreement with the experimental data. A Proper Orthogonal Decomposition analysis was performed on the numerical data to analyse the mechanical behaviour of the fluid and structure more closely.

  19. Modeling Ontario regional electricity system demand using a mixed fixed and random coefficients approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsiao, C.; Mountain, D.C.; Chan, M.W.L.; Tsui, K.Y. (University of Southern California, Los Angeles (USA) McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada) Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin)

    1989-12-01

    In examining the municipal peak and kilowatt-hour demand for electricity in Ontario, the issue of homogeneity across geographic regions is explored. A common model across municipalities and geographic regions cannot be supported by the data. Considered are various procedures which deal with this heterogeneity and yet reduce the multicollinearity problems associated with regional specific demand formulations. The recommended model controls for regional differences assuming that the coefficients of regional-seasonal specific factors are fixed and different while the coefficients of economic and weather variables are random draws from a common population for any one municipality by combining the information on all municipalities through a Bayes procedure. 8 tabs., 41 refs.

  20. An integrated vendor-buyer model with stock-dependent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Thorstenson, Anders; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

    in a display area. The end-customer demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. With the proposed model we determine the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize...... total supply chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that it is more profitable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock-dependent. The analysis also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

  1. An Integrated Vendor-Buyer Model with Stock-Dependent Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorstenson, Anders; Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

    2009-01-01

    in the buyer's warehouse. The demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. The proposed model determines the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize total supply......-chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that as long as the maximum display area is not used, it is more valuable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock- dependent. It also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

  2. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Xue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although bus passenger demand prediction has attracted increased attention during recent years, limited research has been conducted in the context of short-term passenger demand forecasting. This paper proposes an interactive multiple model (IMM filter algorithm-based model to predict short-term passenger demand. After aggregated in 15 min interval, passenger demand data collected from a busy bus route over four months were used to generate time series. Considering that passenger demand exhibits various characteristics in different time scales, three time series were developed, named weekly, daily, and 15 min time series. After the correlation, periodicity, and stationarity analyses, time series models were constructed. Particularly, the heteroscedasticity of time series was explored to achieve better prediction performance. Finally, IMM filter algorithm was applied to combine individual forecasting models with dynamically predicted passenger demand for next interval. Different error indices were adopted for the analyses of individual and hybrid models. The performance comparison indicates that hybrid model forecasts are superior to individual ones in accuracy. Findings of this study are of theoretical and practical significance in bus scheduling.

  3. Fault-related-folding structures and reflection seismic sections. Study by seismic modeling and balanced cross section; Danso ga kaizaisuru shukyoku kozo no keitai to jishin tansa danmen. 2. Seismic modeling oyobi balanced cross section ni yoru study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamagawa, T; Matsuoka, T [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Tsukui, R [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan). Technology Research Center

    1997-05-27

    It occasionally happens that there exists a part where reflection near the thrust is not clearly observed in a thrust zone seismic survey cross section. For the effective interpretation of such an occurrence, the use of geological structures as well as the reflected pattern is effective. When the velocity structures for a fold structure having a listric fault caused anticline (unidirectionally inclined with a backlimb, without a forelimb) and for a fault propagation fold are involved, a wrong interpretation may be made since they look alike in reflection wave pattern despite their difference in geological structure. In the concept of balanced cross section, a check is performed, when the stratum after deformation is recovered to the time of deposition, as to whether the geologic stratum area is conserved without excess or shortage. An excess or shortage occurs if there is an error in the model, and this shows that the fault surface or fold structure is not correctly reflected. Positive application of geological knowledge is required in the processing and interpreting of data from a seismic survey. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  4. Correlation Analysis of Water Demand and Predictive Variables for Short-Term Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Brentan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational and economic aspects of water distribution make water demand forecasting paramount for water distribution systems (WDSs management. However, water demand introduces high levels of uncertainty in WDS hydraulic models. As a result, there is growing interest in developing accurate methodologies for water demand forecasting. Several mathematical models can serve this purpose. One crucial aspect is the use of suitable predictive variables. The most used predictive variables involve weather and social aspects. To improve the interrelation knowledge between water demand and various predictive variables, this study applies three algorithms, namely, classical Principal Component Analysis (PCA and machine learning powerful algorithms such as Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs and Random Forest (RF. We show that these last algorithms help corroborate the results found by PCA, while they are able to unveil hidden features for PCA, due to their ability to cope with nonlinearities. This paper presents a correlation study of three district metered areas (DMAs from Franca, a Brazilian city, exploring weather and social variables to improve the knowledge of residential demand for water. For the three DMAs, temperature, relative humidity, and hour of the day appear to be the most important predictive variables to build an accurate regression model.

  5. Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to İzmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Cuhadar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Cruise ports emerged as an important sector for the economy of Turkey bordered on three sides by water. Forecasting cruise tourism demand ensures better planning, efficient preparation at the destination and it is the basis for elaboration of future plans. In the recent years, new techniques such as; artificial neural networks were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate tourism demand. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting method that provides the best performance when compared the forecast accuracy of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP, Radial Basis Function (RBF and Generalized Regression neural network (GRNN to estimate the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir via the method giving best results. We used the total number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals as a measure of inbound cruise tourism demand and monthly cruise tourist arrivals to İzmir Cruise Port in the period of January 2005 ‐December 2013 were utilized to appropriate model. Experimental results showed that radial basis function (RBF neural network outperforms multi-layer perceptron (MLP and the generalised regression neural networks (GRNN in terms of forecasting accuracy. By the means of the obtained RBF neural network model, it has been forecasted the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir for the year 2014.

  6. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  7. Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

  8. A theoretical model for oxygen transport in skeletal muscle under conditions of high oxygen demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B J; Secomb, T W

    2001-11-01

    Oxygen transport from capillaries to exercising skeletal muscle is studied by use of a Krogh-type cylinder model. The goal is to predict oxygen consumption under conditions of high demand, on the basis of a consideration of transport processes occurring at the microvascular level. Effects of the decline in oxygen content of blood flowing along capillaries, intravascular resistance to oxygen diffusion, and myoglobin-facilitated diffusion are included. Parameter values are based on human skeletal muscle. The dependence of oxygen consumption on oxygen demand, perfusion, and capillary density are examined. When demand is moderate, the tissue is well oxygenated and consumption is slightly less than demand. When demand is high, capillary oxygen content declines rapidly with axial distance and radial oxygen transport is limited by diffusion resistance within the capillary and the tissue. Under these conditions, much of the tissue is hypoxic, consumption is substantially less than demand, and consumption is strongly dependent on capillary density. Predicted consumption rates are comparable with experimentally observed maximal rates of oxygen consumption.

  9. Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

    2010-01-01

    Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

  10. Present mantle flow in North China Craton constrained by seismic anisotropy and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, W.; Guo, Z.; Zhang, H.; Chen, Y. J.

    2017-12-01

    North China Carton (NCC) has undergone complicated geodynamic processes during the Cenozoic, including the westward subduction of the Pacific plate to its east and the collision of the India-Eurasia plates to its southwest. Shear wave splitting measurements in NCC reveal distinct seismic anisotropy patterns at different tectonic blocks, that is, the predominantly NW-SE trending alignment of fast directions in the western NCC and eastern NCC, weak anisotropy within the Ordos block, and N-S fast polarization beneath the Trans-North China Orogen (TNCO). To better understand the origin of seismic anisotropy from SKS splitting in NCC, we obtain a high-resolution dynamic model that absorbs multi-geophysical observations and state-of-the-art numerical methods. We calculate the mantle flow using a most updated version of software ASPECT (Kronbichler et al., 2012) with high-resolution temperature and density structures from a recent 3-D thermal-chemical model by Guo et al. (2016). The thermal-chemical model is obtained by multi-observable probabilistic inversion using high-quality surface wave measurements, potential fields, topography, and surface heat flow (Guo et al., 2016). The viscosity is then estimated by combining the dislocation creep, diffusion creep, and plasticity, which is depended on temperature, pressure, and chemical composition. Then we calculate the seismic anisotropy from the shear deformation of mantle flow by DREX, and predict the fast direction and delay time of SKS splitting. We find that when complex boundary conditions are applied, including the far field effects of the deep subduction of Pacific plate and eastward escaping of Tibetan Plateau, our model can successfully predict the observed shear wave splitting patterns. Our model indicates that seismic anisotropy revealed by SKS is primarily resulting from the LPO of olivine due to the shear deformation from asthenospheric flow. We suggest that two branches of mantle flow may contribute to the

  11. Coupling Hydrodynamic and Wave Propagation Codes for Modeling of Seismic Waves recorded at the SPE Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larmat, C. S.; Rougier, E.; Delorey, A.; Steedman, D. W.; Bradley, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is to bring empirical and theoretical advances to the problem of detection and identification of underground nuclear explosions. For this, the SPE program includes a strong modeling effort based on first principles calculations with the challenge to capture both the source and near-source processes and those taking place later in time as seismic waves propagate within complex 3D geologic environments. In this paper, we report on results of modeling that uses hydrodynamic simulation codes (Abaqus and CASH) coupled with a 3D full waveform propagation code, SPECFEM3D. For modeling the near source region, we employ a fully-coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL) modeling capability with a new continuum-based visco-plastic fracture model for simulation of damage processes, called AZ_Frac. These capabilities produce high-fidelity models of various factors believed to be key in the generation of seismic waves: the explosion dynamics, a weak grout-filled borehole, the surrounding jointed rock, and damage creation and deformations happening around the source and the free surface. SPECFEM3D, based on the Spectral Element Method (SEM) is a direct numerical method for full wave modeling with mathematical accuracy. The coupling interface consists of a series of grid points of the SEM mesh situated inside of the hydrodynamic code's domain. Displacement time series at these points are computed using output data from CASH or Abaqus (by interpolation if needed) and fed into the time marching scheme of SPECFEM3D. We will present validation tests with the Sharpe's model and comparisons of waveforms modeled with Rg waves (2-8Hz) that were recorded up to 2 km for SPE. We especially show effects of the local topography, velocity structure and spallation. Our models predict smaller amplitudes of Rg waves for the first five SPE shots compared to pure elastic models such as Denny &Johnson (1991).

  12. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate demand. It suggests a notion of normal capacity utilization as a range of distributions of normal utilization, related to the cost minimizing choice of techniques and to the persistence of the long term expectations of normal prices underlying the investment decisions. In such a context a long-period analysis with normal prices should avoid a dual steady growth where constant relative prices of capital goods correspond to constant proportions among the stocks of fixed capital.

  13. Two models at work : A study of interactions and specificity in relation to the Demand-Control Model and the Effort-Reward Imbalance Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vegchel, N.

    2005-01-01

    To investigate the relation between work and employee health, several work stress models, e.g., the Demand-Control (DC) Model and the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) Model, have been developed. Although these models focus on job demands and job resources, relatively little attention has been devoted