WorldWideScience

Sample records for seismic damage estimation

  1. Seismic damage estimation for buried pipelines - challenges after three decades of progress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pineda-porras, Omar Andrey [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Najafi, Mohammand [U. OF TEXAS

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution over the past three decades of seismic damage estimation for buried pipelines and identifies some challenges for future research studies on the subject. The first section of this paper presents a chronological description of the evolution since the mid-1970s of pipeline fragility relations - the most common tool for pipeline damage estimation - and follows with a careful analysis of the use of several ground motion parameters as pipeline damage indicators. In the second section of the paper, four gaps on the subject are identified and proposed as challenges for future research studies. The main conclusion of this work is that enhanced fragility relations must be developed for improving pipeline damage estimation, which must consider relevant parameters that could influence the seismic response of pipelines.

  2. New perspectives on the damage estimation for buried pipeline systems due to seismic wave propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pineda Porras, Omar Andrey [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Over the past three decades, seismic fragility fonnulations for buried pipeline systems have been developed following two tendencies: the use of earthquake damage scenarios from several pipeline systems to create general pipeline fragility functions; and, the use of damage scenarios from one pipeline system to create specific-system fragility functions. In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of both tendencies are analyzed and discussed; in addition, a summary of what can be considered the new challenges for developing better pipeline seismic fragility formulations is discussed. The most important conclusion of this paper states that more efforts are needed to improve the estimation of transient ground strain -the main cause of pipeline damage due to seismic wave propagation; with relevant advances in that research field, new and better fragility formulations could be developed.

  3. Building Damage Estimation by Integration of Seismic Intensity Information and Satellite L-band SAR Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuoto Nojima

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available For a quick and stable estimation of earthquake damaged buildings worldwide, using Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR loaded on the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS satellite, a model combining the usage of satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR imagery and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA-scale seismic intensity is proposed. In order to expand the existing C-band SAR based damage estimation model into L-band SAR, this paper rebuilds a likelihood function for severe damage ratio, on the basis of dataset from Japanese Earth Resource Satellite-1 (JERS-1/SAR (L-band SAR images observed during the 1995 Kobe earthquake and its detailed ground truth data. The model which integrates the fragility functions of building damage in terms of seismic intensity and the proposed likelihood function is then applied to PALSAR images taken over the areas affected by the 2007 earthquake in Pisco, Peru. The accuracy of the proposed damage estimation model is examined by comparing the results of the analyses with field investigations and/or interpretation of high-resolution satellite images.

  4. Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Westinghouse Cheswick site as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and seismic hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, J.; Schwendiman, L.C.; Ayer, J.E.

    1979-06-01

    The potential airborne releases of plutonium (source terms) from postulated damage sustained by the Westinghouse Plutonium Fuel Development Laboratories at the Cheswick site in Pennsylvania as a result of various levels of wind and seismic hazard are estimated. The source terms are based on damage scenarios originated by other specialists and range up to 260 mph for wind hazard and in excess of 0.39 g ground acceleration for seismic hazard. The approaches and factors used to estimate the source terms (inventories of dispersible materials at risk, damage levels and ratios, fractional airborne releases of dispersible materials under stress, atmosphere exchange rates, and source term ranges) are discussed. Source term estimates range from less than 10 -7 g plutonium to greater than 130 g plutonium over a four-day period

  5. Estimation of core-damage frequency to evolutionary ALWR [advanced light water reactor] due to seismic initiating events: Task 4.3.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, R.D.; Harrison, D.G.; Summitt, R.L.

    1990-04-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is presently developing a requirements document for the design of advanced light water reactors (ALWRs). One of the basic goals of the EPRI ALWR Requirements Document is that the core-damage frequency for an ALWR shall be less than 1.0E-5. To aid in this effort, the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Severe Accident Program (ARSAP) initiated a functional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine how effectively the evolutionary plant requirements contained in the existing EPRI Requirements Document assure that this safety goal will be met. This report develops an approximation of the core-damage frequency due to seismic events for both evolutionary plant designs (pressurized-water reactor (PWR) and boiling-water reactor(BWR)) as modeled in the corresponding functional PRAs. Component fragility values were taken directly form information which has been submitted for inclusion in Appendix A to Volume 1 of the EPRI Requirements Document. The results show a seismic core-damage frequency of 5.2E-6 for PWRS and 5.0E-6 for BWRs. Combined with the internal initiators from the functional PRAs, the overall core-damage frequencies are 6.0E-6 for the pwr and BWR, both of which satisfy the 1.0E-5 EPRI goal. In addition, site-specific considerations, such as more rigid components and less conservative fragility data and seismic hazard curves, may further reduce these frequencies. The effect of seismic events on structures are not addressed in this generic evaluation and should be addressed separately on a design-specific basis. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  6. Applications of seismic damage hazard analysis for the qualification of existing nuclear and offshore facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazzurro, P.; Manfredini, G.M.; Diaz Molina, I.

    1995-01-01

    The Seismic Damage Hazard Analysis (SDHA) is a methodology which couples conventional Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and non-linear response analysis to seismic loadings. This is a powerful tool in the retrofit process: SDHA permits the direct computation of the probability of occurrence of damage and, eventually, collapse of existing and upgraded structural systems. The SDHA methodology is a significant step towards a better understanding and quantification of structural seismic risk. SDHA incorporates and explicitly accounts for seismic load variability, seismic damage potential variability and structural resistance uncertainty. In addition, SDHA makes available a sound strategy to perform non-linear dynamic analyses. A limited number of non-linear dynamic analyses is sufficient to obtain estimates of damage and its probability of occurrence. The basic concepts of the SDHA methodology are briefly reviewed. Illustrative examples are presented, regarding a power house structure, a tubular structure and seabed slope stability problem. (author)

  7. Seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, HoHyun; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Hyun, Chang-Hun; Kim, Moon-Soo; Shin, Hyun Mock

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for assessing seismic damage of concrete containment structures using the nonlinear time-history numerical analysis. For this purpose, two kinds of damage index are introduced at finite element and structural levels. Nonlinear finite element analysis for the containment structure applies PSC shell elements using a layered approach leading to damage indices at finite element and structural levels, which are then used to assess the seismic damage of the containment structure. As an example of such seismic damage assessment, seismic damages of the containment structure of Wolsong I nuclear power plant in Korea are evaluated against 30 artificial earthquakes generated with a wide range of PGA according to US NRC regulatory guide 1.60. Structural responses and corresponding damage index according to the level of PGA and nonlinearity are investigated. It is also shown that the containment structure behaves elastically for earthquakes corresponding to or lower than DBE. (author)

  8. Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: A bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari. F.; . E-mails: Luis.Decanini@uniroma1.it; Fabrizio.Mollaioli@uniroma1.it)

    2002-07-01

    The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with a description of 'roundshaking scenarios', or with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. We prefer a scenario-based, deterministic approach in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes. The joint use of reliable synthetic signals and observations permits the computation of advanced hazard indicators (e.g. damaging potential) that take into account local soil properties. The envelope of synthetic elastic energy spectra reproduces the distribution of the energy demand in the most relevant frequency range for seismic engineering. The synthetic accelerograms can be fruitfully used for design and strengthening of structures, also when innovative techniques, like seismic isolation, are employed. For these

  9. Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ung Jin Na; Shinozuka, Masanobu

    2009-01-01

    Seaport transportation system is one of the major lifeline systems in modern society and its reliable operation is crucial for the well-being of the public. However, past experiences showed that earthquake damage to port components can severely disrupt terminal operation, and thus negatively impact on the regional economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for estimating the effects of the earthquake on the performance of the operation system of a container terminal in seaports. To evaluate the economic loss of damaged system, an analytical framework is developed by integrating simulation models for terminal operation and fragility curves of port components in the context of seismic risk analysis. For this purpose, computerized simulation model is developed and verified with actual terminal operation records. Based on the analytical procedure to assess the seismic performance of the terminal, system fragility curves are also developed. This simulation-based loss estimation methodology can be used not only for estimating the seismically induced revenue loss but also serve as a decision-making tool to select specific seismic retrofit technique on the basis of benefit-cost analysis

  10. Estimation of pore pressure from seismic velocities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez, Zayra; Ojeda, German Y; Mateus, Darwin

    2009-01-01

    On pore pressure calculations it is common to obtain a profile in a well bore, which is then extrapolated toward offset wells. This practice might generate mistakes on pore pressure measurements, since geological conditions may change from a well bore to another, even into the same basin. Therefore, it is important to use other tools which allow engineers not only to detect and estimate in an indirect way overpressure zones, but also to keep a lateral tracking of possible changes that may affect those values in the different formations. Taking into account this situation, we applied a methodology that estimates formation pressure from 3D seismic velocities by using the Eaton method. First, we estimated formation pore pressure; then, we identified possible overpressure zones. Finally, those results obtained from seismic information were analyzed involving well logs and pore pressure tests, in order to compare real data with prediction based on seismic information from the Colombian foothill.

  11. Nondestructive damage detection and evaluation technique for seismically damaged structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Yukio; Unjoh, Shigeki; Kondoh, Masuo; Ohsumi, Michio

    1999-02-01

    The development of quantitative damage detection and evaluation technique, and damage detection technique for invisible damages of structures are required according to the lessons from the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. In this study, two quantitative damage sensing techniques for highway bridge structures are proposed. One method is to measure the change of vibration characteristics of the bridge structure. According to the damage detection test for damaged bridge column by shaking table test, this method can successfully detect the vibration characteristic change caused by damage progress due to increment excitations. The other method is to use self-diagnosis intelligent materials. According to the reinforced concrete beam specimen test, the second method can detect the damage by rupture of intelligent sensors, such as optical fiber or carbon fiber reinforced plastic rod.

  12. Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

    2015-12-01

    Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

  13. Seismic response of reinforced concrete frames at different damage levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-González, Merangeli; Vidot-Vega, Aidcer L.

    2017-03-01

    Performance-based seismic engineering is focused on the definition of limit states to represent different levels of damage, which can be described by material strains, drifts, displacements or even changes in dissipating properties and stiffness of the structure. This study presents a research plan to evaluate the behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) moment resistant frames at different performance levels established by the ASCE 41-06 seismic rehabilitation code. Sixteen RC plane moment frames with different span-to-depth ratios and three 3D RC frames were analyzed to evaluate their seismic behavior at different damage levels established by the ASCE 41-06. For each span-to-depth ratio, four different beam longitudinal reinforcement steel ratios were used that varied from 0.85 to 2.5% for the 2D frames. Nonlinear time history analyses of the frames were performed using scaled ground motions. The impact of different span-to-depth and reinforcement ratios on the damage levels was evaluated. Material strains, rotations and seismic hysteretic energy changes at different damage levels were studied.

  14. Estimating the economic impact of seismic activity in Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    Estimating the short and long-term economical impact of large-scale damaging events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or tropical storms is an important component of risk assessment, whose outcomes are routinely used to improve risk awareness, optimize investments in prevention and mitigation actions, as well as to customize insurance and reinsurance rates to specific geographical regions or single countries. Such estimations can be carried out by modeling the whole causal process, from hazard assessment to the estimation of loss for specific categories of assets. This approach allows a precise description of the various physical mechanisms contributing to direct seismic losses. However, it should reflect the underlying epistemic and random uncertainties in all involved components in a meaningful way. Within a project sponsored by the World Bank, a seismic risk study for the Kyrgyz Republic has been conducted, focusing on the assessment of social and economical impacts assessed in terms of direct losses of the residential and public building stocks. Probabilistic estimates based on stochastic event catalogs have been computed and integrated with the simulation of specific earthquake scenarios. Although very few relevant data are available in the region on the economic consequences of past damaging events, the proposed approach sets a benchmark for decision makers and policy holders to better understand the short and long term consequences of earthquakes in the region. The presented results confirm the high level of seismic risk of the Kyrgyz Republic territory, outlining the most affected regions; thus advocating for significant Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures to be implemented by local decision- and policy-makers.

  15. Robust estimation of seismic coda shape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikkilä, Mikko; Polishchuk, Valentin; Krasnoshchekov, Dmitry

    2014-04-01

    We present a new method for estimation of seismic coda shape. It falls into the same class of methods as non-parametric shape reconstruction with the use of neural network techniques where data are split into a training and validation data sets. We particularly pursue the well-known problem of image reconstruction formulated in this case as shape isolation in the presence of a broadly defined noise. This combined approach is enabled by the intrinsic feature of seismogram which can be divided objectively into a pre-signal seismic noise with lack of the target shape, and the remainder that contains scattered waveforms compounding the coda shape. In short, we separately apply shape restoration procedure to pre-signal seismic noise and the event record, which provides successful delineation of the coda shape in the form of a smooth almost non-oscillating function of time. The new algorithm uses a recently developed generalization of classical computational-geometry tool of α-shape. The generalization essentially yields robust shape estimation by ignoring locally a number of points treated as extreme values, noise or non-relevant data. Our algorithm is conceptually simple and enables the desired or pre-determined level of shape detail, constrainable by an arbitrary data fit criteria. The proposed tool for coda shape delineation provides an alternative to moving averaging and/or other smoothing techniques frequently used for this purpose. The new algorithm is illustrated with an application to the problem of estimating the coda duration after a local event. The obtained relation coefficient between coda duration and epicentral distance is consistent with the earlier findings in the region of interest.

  16. Early estimation of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismic deformation

    OpenAIRE

    Weidong, Li; Chaojun, Zhang; Dahui, Li; Jiayong, He; Huizhong, Chen; Lomnitz, Cinna

    2010-01-01

    The absolute fault displacement in co-seismic deformation is derived assuming that location, depth, faulting mechanism and magnitude of the earthquake are known. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M8.0) is used as an example to determine the distribution of seismic intensities using absolute displacement and a crustal model. We fnd that an early prediction of the distribution of seismic intensities after a large earthquake may be performed from the estimated absolute co-seismic displacements using...

  17. Seismic damage assessment for high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Roger E.

    1980-01-01

    The problem considered in this project, conducted by URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume), for the U.S. Geological Survey, is the identification, evaluation, and correlation of ground-motion and structural parameters in order to improve procedures for predicting dollar losses for high-rise structures damaged by earthquakes. Ground-motion data bases, analytical techniques, and known motion-damage relationships already developed for high-rise buildings and for other classes of structures will be refined and extended so that reliable quantitative seismic risk evaluations can be made.

  18. Piezoelectric dynamic strain monitoring for detecting local seismic damage in steel buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurata, Masahiro; Li, Xiaohua; Fujita, Kohei; Yamaguchi, Mayako

    2013-01-01

    This research presents a methodology for damage detection along with a sensing system for monitoring seismic damage in steel buildings. The system extracts the location and extent of local damage, such as fracture at a beam–column connection, from changes in the bending moment distribution in a steel moment-resisting frame. We developed a dynamic strain-based sensing system utilizing piezoelectric film sensors and wireless sensing techniques to estimate the bending moments resisted by individual structural members under small amplitude loadings such as ambient vibrations and minor earthquakes. We introduce a new damage index that extracts local damage information from the comparative study of the dynamic strain responses of the structural members before and after a large earthquake event. The damage detection scheme was examined both analytically and numerically using a simple frame example. Then, the entire local damage detection scheme was verified through a series of vibration tests using a one-quarter-scale steel testbed that simulated seismic damage at member ends. (paper)

  19. Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.

    2009-04-01

    By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios

  20. Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

    2014-12-01

    The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

  1. Seismic damage identification for steel structures using distributed fiber optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Shuang; Cai, C S; Ou, Jinping

    2009-08-01

    A distributed fiber optic monitoring methodology based on optic time domain reflectometry technology is developed for seismic damage identification of steel structures. Epoxy with a strength closely associated to a specified structure damage state is used for bonding zigzagged configured optic fibers on the surfaces of the structure. Sensing the local deformation of the structure, the epoxy modulates the signal change within the optic fiber in response to the damage state of the structure. A monotonic loading test is conducted on a steel specimen installed with the proposed sensing system using selected epoxy that will crack at the designated strain level, which indicates the damage of the steel structure. Then, using the selected epoxy, a varying degree of cyclic loading amplitudes, which is associated with different damage states, is applied on a second specimen. The test results show that the specimen's damage can be identified by the optic sensors, and its maximum local deformation can be recorded by the sensing system; moreover, the damage evolution can also be identified.

  2. Prediction of Seismic Damage-Based Degradation in RC Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Gupta, Vinay K.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    Estimation of structural damage from known increase in the fundamental period of a structure after an earthquake or prediction of degradation of stiffness and strength for known damage requires reliable correlations between these response functionals. This study proposes a modified Clough-Johnsto...

  3. Adaptive measurement selection for progressive damage estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenfan; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Peralta, Pedro

    2011-04-01

    Noise and interference in sensor measurements degrade the quality of data and have a negative impact on the performance of structural damage diagnosis systems. In this paper, a novel adaptive measurement screening approach is presented to automatically select the most informative measurements and use them intelligently for structural damage estimation. The method is implemented efficiently in a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) setting using particle filtering. The noise suppression and improved damage estimation capability of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application to the problem of estimating progressive fatigue damage in an aluminum compact-tension (CT) sample using noisy PZT sensor measurements.

  4. Air permeability for a concrete shear wall after a damaging seismic load simulation cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girrens, S.P.; Farrar, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    A study was initiated to estimate air leakage, driven by wind-generated pressure gradients, from a seismically damaged concrete structure. This paper describes an experiment performed to measure the air permeability in a reinforced concrete shear wall, both before and after simulated seismic loading. Static load-cycle testing was used to simulate earthquake loading. Permeability measurements were made by pressurizing one side of the shear wall above atmospheric conditions and recording the transient-pressure decay. Air permeability measurements made on the shear wall before loading fell within the range of values for concrete permeability published in the literature. As long as the structure exhibited linear load-displacement response, no variation in the air permeability was detected. However, experimental results indicate that the air permeability in the shear wall increased by a factor of 40 after the wall had been damaged (cracked)

  5. Study on the estimation of safety margin of piping system against seismic loading. 1st report, damage observations of the straight pipes subjected to cyclic load amplitudes of various levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Izumi; Otani, Akihito; Shiratori, Masaki

    2010-01-01

    Fatigue failure accompanied by ratchet deformation is well known as one of the failure modes of pressurized pipes under high-level cyclic load. In this research, the process of failure of such pipes was investigated based on the experimental result in which a straight pipe failed by repeatedly increasing cyclic input displacement amplitude in stages. The strain behavior, moment-deflection relationship, and observed damage were compared with the stress level used in the seismic design of the piping system. As a result, no significant damage was observed and the moment-deflection relationship remained almost linear within the primary stress limit of 3S m , although the strain showed elastic-plastic behavior at some measurement points. In the experiment, damage was observed at the applied load levels of approximately 5S m of the primary stress, and 0.15 and more of the fatigue damage index, i.e., the usage factor based on the design. The test results showed that there is a certain time margin before failure occurs to actual piping systems, compared with its designed stress limitation. (author)

  6. Estimation of Cyclic Interstory Drift Capacity of Steel Framed Structures and Future Applications for Seismic Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edén Bojórquez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have been devoted to calibrate damage indices for steel and reinforced concrete members with the purpose of overcoming some of the shortcomings of the parameters currently used during seismic design. Nevertheless, there is a challenge to study and calibrate the use of such indices for the practical structural evaluation of complex structures. In this paper, an energy-based damage model for multidegree-of-freedom (MDOF steel framed structures that accounts explicitly for the effects of cumulative plastic deformation demands is used to estimate the cyclic drift capacity of steel structures. To achieve this, seismic hazard curves are used to discuss the limitations of the maximum interstory drift demand as a performance parameter to achieve adequate damage control. Then the concept of cyclic drift capacity, which incorporates information of the influence of cumulative plastic deformation demands, is introduced as an alternative for future applications of seismic design of structures subjected to long duration ground motions.

  7. A method for the estimation of the probability of damage due to earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alderson, M.A.H.G.

    1979-07-01

    The available information on seismicity within the United Kingdom has been combined with building damage data from the United States to produce a method of estimating the probability of damage to structures due to the occurrence of earthquakes. The analysis has been based on the use of site intensity as the major damage producing parameter. Data for structural, pipework and equipment items have been assumed and the overall probability of damage calculated as a function of the design level. Due account is taken of the uncertainties of the seismic data. (author)

  8. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  9. An experimental study on developing seismic damage indicator appearing OBE exceedance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, D. S.; Kwon, K. J.; Lee, J. L.

    2000-01-01

    Immediate measurement should be taken depending on the level of seismic damage to nuclear power plants when an earthquake exceeds Operating Base Earthquake by NRC regulatory guide. An earthquake at nuclear plant site is felt with seismic instrument and analyzed by seismic monitoring systems. However, if operators of insufficient knowledge to earthquake can recognize the intensity of the earthquake with a subsidiary indicating model, more immediate response can be conducted. This subsidiary indicating model is called seismic damage indicator. In this regard, an experimental study using shaking table was conducted to develop the seismic damage indicator by CAV and OBE compatible with NRC standard response spectrum. In this test result, stacked acrylic cylinders were manufactured to behave consistently for each direction of seismic load. If the developed SDI is installed in nuclear power plants, it is seemed to be useful in easily determining OBE exceedance easily, and counteracting by plant operator along with the existing seismic monitoring systems

  10. Evaluation of seismic damage to bridges and highway systems in Shelby County, Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, John Bailey

    by the Capacity/Demand (C/D) ratios of bridge components. The damage states considered in this study are no/minor damage, repairable damage, and significant damage. The seismic fragility analysis of each bridge classification was performed and the results were expressed as fragility curves. In this study, eight bridge classifications were defined and a fragility curve was developed for each. To estimate the seismic hazard, three scenario earthquakes located at Marked Tree, Arkansas was established for this study. The moment magnitude of the M scenario earthquake was set as 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 to represent various sizes of earthquakes that might occur in the NMSZ. For each scenario earthquake, the intensity of ground shaking and liquefaction-induced permanent ground deformation in Shelby County were estimated, and then the expected damage to bridges and roadway systems was determined. The results from this study can be used to prioritize bridges for retrofitting, to prepare a pre-earthquake preparedness plan, and to develop a post-earthquake emergency response plan. Furthermore, the results can also be used to assess the regional economic impact from the damage to highway transportation systems.

  11. Evaluation of fatigue-ratcheting damage of a pressurised elbow undergoing damage seismic inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang Van, K.

    2000-01-01

    We present a simplified method to calculate the plastic ratchet of elbow-shaped pipes submitted to seismic loading and an internal pressure. This method is simplified in the sense that the value of the ratchet is obtained without the use of finite element method (FEM) calculations. Here we derive a formula and use it to evaluate the fatigue-ratcheting damage of an elbow. This approach is applicable to complex plastic response appropriately described by non-linear kinematics hardening, which is more realistic for stainless steel such as 316-L. (orig.)

  12. Seismic vulnerability and damage of Italian historical centres: A case study in the Campania region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Landolfo, Raffaele

    2017-07-01

    The preservation of masonry buildings typical of Italian historical centres represents a very pressing dilemma founded on recovery need of the urban fabric original character. In the paper, based on a methodology developed by some of the Authors on building aggregates, the seismic vulnerability estimation of some masonry compounds in the heart of the town of San PotitoSannitico (Caserta, Italy) is presented and compared to the results achieved from applying the basic literature method for isolated constructions. Finally, the damage scenario of inspected buildings has been shown by highlighting clearly the influence of different positions of structural units on the damages that masonry aggregates suffer under different grade earthquakes, leading to individuate the most vulnerable buildings.

  13. Development of seismic damage assessment system for nuclear power plant structures in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Chang-Hun; Lee, Sung-Kyu; Choi, Kang-Ryoung; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Cho, HoHyun

    2003-01-01

    A seismic damage assessment system that analyses in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and the damage level of power plant structures has been developed. The system consists of three parts: a 3-D inelastic seismic analysis, a damage assessment using a damage index based on the previous 3-D analysis, and a 3-D graphic representation. PSC containment structures are modelled by finite shell elements using layered method and analysis is performed by means of time history inelastic seismic analysis method, which takes into account material nonlinearities. HHT-α, one kind of direct integration method, is adopted for the seismic analysis. Two damage indices at finite element and structural levels are applied for the seismic damage assessment. 3-D graphical representation of dynamic responses and damage index expedites procedure for evaluating the damage level. The developed system is now being installed at the Earthquake Monitoring Center of KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) to support site inspections after an earthquake occurrence, and decisions about effective emergency measures, repair and operations of the plant. (author)

  14. Bayesian nonlinear structural FE model and seismic input identification for damage assessment of civil structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astroza, Rodrigo; Ebrahimian, Hamed; Li, Yong; Conte, Joel P.

    2017-09-01

    A methodology is proposed to update mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures subjected to unknown input excitation. The approach allows to jointly estimate unknown time-invariant model parameters of a nonlinear FE model of the structure and the unknown time histories of input excitations using spatially-sparse output response measurements recorded during an earthquake event. The unscented Kalman filter, which circumvents the computation of FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown model parameters and unknown input excitations by using a deterministic sampling approach, is employed as the estimation tool. The use of measurement data obtained from arrays of heterogeneous sensors, including accelerometers, displacement sensors, and strain gauges is investigated. Based on the estimated FE model parameters and input excitations, the updated nonlinear FE model can be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and assess damage in the structure. Numerically simulated response data of a three-dimensional 4-story 2-by-1 bay steel frame structure with six unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation, and a three-dimensional 5-story 2-by-1 bay reinforced concrete frame structure with nine unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. The results of the validation studies show the excellent performance and robustness of the proposed algorithm to jointly estimate unknown FE model parameters and unknown input excitations.

  15. Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Seismic Damage for Buildings in Mid-America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Jong-Wha; Hueste, Mary Beth D.; Gardoni, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an approach to conduct a probabilistic assessment of structural damage due to seismic events with an application to typical building structures in Mid-America. The developed methodology includes modified damage state classifications based on the ATC-13 and ATC-38 damage states and the ATC-38 database of building damage. Damage factors are assigned to each damage state to quantify structural damage as a percentage of structural replacement cost. To account for the inherent uncertainties, these factors are expressed as random variables with a Beta distribution. A set of fragility curves, quantifying the structural vulnerability of a building, is mapped onto the developed methodology to determine the expected structural damage. The total structural damage factor for a given seismic intensity is then calculated using a probabilistic approach. Prediction and confidence bands are also constructed to account for the prevailing uncertainties. The expected seismic structural damage is assessed for a typical building structure in the Mid-America region using the developed methodology. The developed methodology provides a transparent procedure, where the structural damage factors can be updated as additional seismic damage data becomes available

  16. A new system for seismic yield estimation of underground explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    Research conducted over the past decade has led to the development of a number of innovative procedures for estimating the yields of underground nuclear explosions based on systematic analyses of digital seismic data recorded from these tests. In addition, a wide variety of new data regarding the geophysical environments at Soviet test locations have now become available as a result of the Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) and associated data exchanges. The system described in this paper represents an attempt to integrate all these new capabilities and data into a comprehensive operational prototype which can be used to obtain optimum seismic estimates of explosion yield together with quantitative measures of the uncertainty in those estimates. The implementation of this system has involved a wide variety of technical tasks, including the development of a comprehensive seismic database and related database access software, formulation of a graphical test site information interface for accessing available information on explosion source conditions, design of an interactive seismic analyst station for use in processing the observed data to extract the required magnitude measures and the incorporation of formal statistical analysis modules for use in yield estimation and assessment

  17. Effect of β on Seismic Vulnerability Curve for RC Bridge Based on Double Damage Criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Qinghai; Yuan Wancheng

    2010-01-01

    In the analysis of seismic vulnerability curve based on double damage criterion, the randomness of structural parameter and randomness of seismic should be considered. Firstly, the distribution characteristics of structure capability and seismic demand are obtained based on IDA and PUSHOVER, secondly, the vulnerability of the bridge is gained based on ANN and MC and a vulnerability curve according to this bridge and seismic is drawn. Finally, the analysis for a continuous bridge is displayed as an example, and parametric analysis for the effect of β is done, which reflects the bridge vulnerability overall from the point of total probability, and in order to reduce the discreteness, large value of β are suggested.

  18. Seismic Dynamic Damage Characteristics of Vertical and Batter Pile-supported Wharf Structure Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiren

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Considering a typical steel pipe pile-supported wharf as the research object, finite element analytical models of batter and vertical pile structures were established under the same construction site, service, and geological conditions to investigate the seismic dynamic damage characteristics of vertical and batter pile-supported wharf structures. By the numerical simulation and the nonlinear time history response analysis of structure system and the moment–axial force relation curve, we analyzed the dynamic damage characteristics of the two different structures of batter and vertical piles under different seismic ground motions to provide reasonable basis and reference for designing and selecting a pile-supported wharf structure. Results showed that the axial force of batter piles was dominant in the batter pile structure and that batter piles could effectively bear and share seismic load. Under the seismic ground motion with peak ground acceleration (PGA of 350 Gal and in consideration of the factors of the design requirement of horizontal displacement, the seismic performance of the batter pile structure was better than that of the vertical pile structure. Under the seismic ground motion with a PGA of 1000 Gal, plastic failure occurred in two different structures. The contrastive analysis of the development of plastic damage and the absorption and dissipation for seismic energy indicated that the seismic performance of the vertical pile structure was better than that of the batter pile structure.

  19. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  20. Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B Elsner

    Full Text Available The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1 for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93 [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

  1. Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

  2. Attenuation (1/Q) estimation in reflection seismic records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raji, Wasiu; Rietbrock, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Despite its numerous potential applications, the lack of a reliable method for determining attenuation (1/Q) in seismic data is an issue when utilizing attenuation for hydrocarbon exploration. In this paper, a new method for measuring attenuation in reflection seismic data is presented. The inversion process involves two key stages: computation of the centroid frequency for the individual signal using a variable window length and fast Fourier transform; and estimation of the difference in the centroid frequency and travel time for paired incident and transmitted signals. The new method introduces a shape factor and a constant which allows several spectral shapes to be used to represent a real seismic signal without altering the mathematical model. Application of the new method to synthetic data shows that it can provide reliable estimates of Q using any of the spectral shapes commonly assumed for real seismic signals. Tested against two published methods of Q measurement, the new method shows less sensitivity to interference from noise and change of frequency bandwidth. The method is also applied to a 3D data set from the Gullfaks field, North Sea, Norway. The trace length is divided into four intervals: AB, BC, CD, and DE. Results show that interval AB has the lowest 1/Q value, and that interval BC has the highest 1/Q value. The values of 1/Q measured in the CDP stack using the new method are consistent with those measured using the classical spectral ratio method. (paper)

  3. The forecast of mining-induced seismicity and the consequent risk of damage to the excavation in the area of seismic event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Drzewiecki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Central Mining Institute has developed a method for forecasting the amount of seismic energy created by tremors induced by mining operations. The results of geophysical measurements of S wave velocity anomalies in a rock mass or the results of analytic calculations of the values of pressure on the horizon of the elastic layers are used in the process of calculating the energy. The calculation program which has been developed and adopted has been modified over recent years and it now enables not only the prediction of the energy of dynamic phenomena induced by mining but also the forecasting of the devastating range of seismic shock. The results obtained from this calculation, usually presented in a more readable graphic form, are useful for the macroscopic evaluation of locations that are potential sources of seismic energy. Forecasting of the maximum energy of seismic shock without prior knowledge of the location of the shock's source, does not allow shock attenuation that results from, for example, a distance of tremor source from the excavation which will be affected by seismic energy, to be taken into consideration. The phenomena of energy dissipation, which is taken into account in the forecasts, create a new quality of assessment of threat to the excavation. The paper presents the principle of a method of forecasting the seismic energy of a shock and the risk of damage to the excavation as a result of the impact of its energy wave. The solution assumes that the source of the energy shock is a resilient layer in which the sum of the gravitational stresses, resulting from natural disturbances and those induced by the conducted or planned mining exploitation, is estimated. The proposed solution assumes a spherical model for the tremor source, for which seismic energy is forecasted as a function of the longwall advance and the elementary value of seismic energy destroying the excavation. Subsequently, the following are calculated for the

  4. Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Yang Heui; Shin, Hyun Mok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2001-12-15

    The most part of the nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea are more than 20 years old and obviously we cannot pretend that their original performance is actually maintained. In addition, earthquake occurrences show an increasing trend all over the world, and Korea can no more be considered as a zone safe from earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

  5. Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Ho Hyun; Cho, Yang Hui [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2000-12-15

    Some of nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea have been passed about 20 years after construction. Moreover, in the case of KORI I the service year is over 20 years, so their abilities are different from initial abilities. Also, earthquake outbreak increase, our country is not safe area for earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

  6. Iterative reflectivity-constrained velocity estimation for seismic imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masaya, Shogo; Verschuur, D. J. Eric

    2018-03-01

    This paper proposes a reflectivity constraint for velocity estimation to optimally solve the inverse problem for active seismic imaging. This constraint is based on the velocity model derived from the definition of reflectivity and acoustic impedance. The constraint does not require any prior information of the subsurface and large extra computational costs, like the calculation of so-called Hessian matrices. We incorporate this constraint into the Joint Migration Inversion algorithm, which simultaneously estimates both the reflectivity and velocity model of the subsurface in an iterative process. Using so-called full wavefield modeling, the misfit between forward modeled and measured data is minimized. Numerical and field data examples are given to demonstrate the validity of our proposed algorithm in case accurate initial models and the low frequency components of observed seismic data are absent.

  7. A Discrete Element Method Approach to Progressive Localization of Damage in Granular Rocks and Associated Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vora, H.; Morgan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Brittle failure in rock under confined biaxial conditions is accompanied by release of seismic energy, known as acoustic emissions (AE). The objective our study is to understand the influence of elastic properties of rock and its stress state on deformation patterns, and associated seismicity in granular rocks. Discrete Element Modeling is used to simulate biaxial tests on granular rocks of defined grain size distribution. Acoustic Energy and seismic moments are calculated from microfracture events as rock is taken to conditions of failure under different confining pressure states. Dimensionless parameters such as seismic b-value and fractal parameter for deformation, D-value, are used to quantify seismic character and distribution of damage in rock. Initial results suggest that confining pressure has the largest control on distribution of induced microfracturing, while fracture energy and seismic magnitudes are highly sensitive to elastic properties of rock. At low confining pressures, localized deformation (low D-values) and high seismic b-values are observed. Deformation at high confining pressures is distributed in nature (high D-values) and exhibit low seismic b-values as shearing becomes the dominant mode of microfracturing. Seismic b-values and fractal D-values obtained from microfracturing exhibit a linear inverse relationship, similar to trends observed in earthquakes. Mode of microfracturing in our simulations of biaxial compression tests show mechanistic similarities to propagation of fractures and faults in nature.

  8. Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

    2018-04-01

    There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

  9. Seismic damage sensing of bridge structures with TRIP reinforcement steel bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Yukio; Unjoh, Shigeki

    2001-07-01

    Intelligent reinforced concrete structures with transformation-induced-plasticity (TRIP) steel rebars that have self-diagnosis function are proposed. TRIP steel is special steel with Fe-Cr based formulation. It undergoes a permanent change in crystal structure in proportion to peak strain. This changes from non-magnetic to magnetic steel. By using the TRIP steel rebars, the seismic damage level of reinforced concrete structures can be easily recognized by measuring the residual magnetic level of the TRIP rebars, that is directly related to the peak strain during a seismic event. This information will be most helpful for repairing the damaged structures. In this paper, the feasibility of the proposed intelligent reinforced concrete structure for seismic damage sensing is experimentally studied. The relation among the damage level, peak strain of rebars, and residual magnetic level of rebars of reinforced concrete beams implemented with TRIP steel bars was experimentally studied. As the result of this study, this intelligent structure can diagnose accumulated strain/damage anticipated during seismic event.

  10. Quasistatic Seismic Damage Indicators for RC Structures from Dissipating Energies in Tangential Subspaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilfried B. Krätzig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies recent research on structural damage description to earthquake-resistant design concepts. Based on the primary design aim of life safety, this work adopts the necessity of additional protection aims for property, installation, and equipment. This requires the definition of damage indicators, which are able to quantify the arising structural damage. As in present design, it applies nonlinear quasistatic (pushover concepts due to code provisions as simplified dynamic design tools. Substituting so nonlinear time-history analyses, seismic low-cycle fatigue of RC structures is approximated in similar manner. The treatment will be embedded into a finite element environment, and the tangential stiffness matrix KT in tangential subspaces then is identified as the most general entry for structural damage information. Its spectra of eigenvalues λi or natural frequencies ωi of the structure serve to derive damage indicators Di, applicable to quasistatic evaluation of seismic damage. Because det KT=0 denotes structural failure, such damage indicators range from virgin situation Di=0 to failure Di=1 and thus correspond with Fema proposals on performance-based seismic design. Finally, the developed concept is checked by reanalyses of two experimentally investigated RC frames.

  11. DEPENDENCE OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF COMMERCIAL DAMAGES DUE TO POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CLASS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF A BUILDING

    OpenAIRE

    Hanzada R. Zajnulabidova; Alexander M. Uzdin; Tatiana M. Chirkst

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. Objectives To determine the damage probability of earthquakes of different intensities on the example of a real projected railway station building having a framework design scheme based on the density function of damage distribution. Methods Uncertainty, always existing in nature, invalidates a deterministic approach to the assessment of territorial seismic hazards and, consequently, seismic risk. In this case, seismic risk assessment can be carried out on a probabilistic basis. Thu...

  12. Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano

    2016-12-01

    The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

  13. Assessment of seismic damages in nuclear power plant buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corsanego, A.; DelGrosso, A.; Ferro, G.

    1987-01-01

    Performance of nuclear power plant sites, buildings and components is in today's practice continuously evaluated by means of monitoring systems composed by a variety of instruments, allowing records of the most significant behavioral parameters to be gathered by electronic data acquisition equipment. A great emphasis has been devoted in recent years to the development of ''intelligent'' monitoring systems able to perform interpretation of the response of structures and components automatically, only requiring human intervention and sophisticated data processing techniques when degradation of the safety margins is likely to have been produced. Such computerized procedures can be formulated through logic or algorithmic processes and normally are consistently based upon simplified, heuristic behavioral models and probabilistic reasoning schemes. This paper is devoted to discuss the development of an algorithmic procedure intended for automatic, real-time interpretation of the recorded response of nuclear power plant buildings and foundations during seismic events

  14. High Resolution SAR Imaging Employing Geometric Features for Extracting Seismic Damage of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L. P.; Wang, X. P.; Dou, A. X.; Ding, X.

    2018-04-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image is relatively easy to acquire but difficult for interpretation. This paper probes how to identify seismic damage of building using geometric features of SAR. The SAR imaging geometric features of buildings, such as the high intensity layover, bright line induced by double bounce backscattering and dark shadow is analysed, and show obvious differences texture features of homogeneity, similarity and entropy in combinatorial imaging geometric regions between the un-collapsed and collapsed buildings in airborne SAR images acquired in Yushu city damaged by 2010 Ms7.1 Yushu, Qinghai, China earthquake, which implicates a potential capability to discriminate collapsed and un-collapsed buildings from SAR image. Study also shows that the proportion of highlight (layover & bright line) area (HA) is related to the seismic damage degree, thus a SAR image damage index (SARDI), which related to the ratio of HA to the building occupation are of building in a street block (SA), is proposed. While HA is identified through feature extraction with high-pass and low-pass filtering of SAR image in frequency domain. A partial region with 58 natural street blocks in the Yushu City are selected as study area. Then according to the above method, HA is extracted, SARDI is then calculated and further classified into 3 classes. The results show effective through validation check with seismic damage classes interpreted artificially from post-earthquake airborne high resolution optical image, which shows total classification accuracy 89.3 %, Kappa coefficient 0.79 and identical to the practical seismic damage distribution. The results are also compared and discussed with the building damage identified from SAR image available by other authors.

  15. Estimation of steam-chamber extent using 4D seismic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, M. [Waseda Univ., Waseda (Japan); Endo, K. [Japan Canada Oil Sands Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Onozuka, S. [Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2009-07-01

    The steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technique is among the most effective steam injection methods and is widely applied in Canadian oil-sand reservoirs. The SAGD technology uses hot steam to decrease bitumen viscosity and allow it to flow. Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited (JACOS) has been developing an oil-sand reservoir in the Alberta's Hangingstone area since 1997. This paper focused on the western area of the reservoir and reported on a study that estimated the steam-chamber extent generated by horizontal well pairs. It listed steam injection start time for each well of the western area. Steam-chamber distribution was determined by distinguishing high temperature and high pore-pressure zones from low temperature and high pore-pressure zones. The bitumen recovery volume in the steam-chamber zone was estimated and compared with the actual cumulative production. This paper provided details of the methodology and interpretation procedures for the quantitative method to interpret 4D-seismic data for a SAGD process. A procedure to apply a petrophysical model was demonstrated first by scaling laboratory measurements to field-scale applications, and then by decoupling pressure and temperature effects. The first 3D seismic data in this study were already affected by higher pressures and temperatures. 11 refs., 3 tabs., 12 figs.

  16. Seismic Methods of Identifying Explosions and Estimating Their Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Pasyanos, M.; Pyle, M. L.; Myers, S. C.; Mellors, R. J.; Pitarka, A.; Rodgers, A. J.; Hauk, T. F.

    2014-12-01

    Seismology plays a key national security role in detecting, locating, identifying and determining the yield of explosions from a variety of causes, including accidents, terrorist attacks and nuclear testing treaty violations (e.g. Koper et al., 2003, 1999; Walter et al. 1995). A collection of mainly empirical forensic techniques has been successfully developed over many years to obtain source information on explosions from their seismic signatures (e.g. Bowers and Selby, 2009). However a lesson from the three DPRK declared nuclear explosions since 2006, is that our historic collection of data may not be representative of future nuclear test signatures (e.g. Selby et al., 2012). To have confidence in identifying future explosions amongst the background of other seismic signals, and accurately estimate their yield, we need to put our empirical methods on a firmer physical footing. Goals of current research are to improve our physical understanding of the mechanisms of explosion generation of S- and surface-waves, and to advance our ability to numerically model and predict them. As part of that process we are re-examining regional seismic data from a variety of nuclear test sites including the DPRK and the former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)). Newer relative location and amplitude techniques can be employed to better quantify differences between explosions and used to understand those differences in term of depth, media and other properties. We are also making use of the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) at NNSS. The SPE chemical explosions are explicitly designed to improve our understanding of emplacement and source material effects on the generation of shear and surface waves (e.g. Snelson et al., 2013). Finally we are also exploring the value of combining seismic information with other technologies including acoustic and InSAR techniques to better understand the source characteristics. Our goal is to improve our explosion models

  17. Damage assessment for seismic response of recycled concrete filled steel tube columns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yijie; Xiao, Jianzhuang; Shen, Luming

    2016-09-01

    A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube (RCFST) columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate (RCA) replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes (CFST).

  18. Comparison of the sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and practical earthquake damage phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yi; Huang, Yahong

    2017-12-01

    Conducting sand liquefaction estimated based on codes is the important content of the geotechnical design. However, the result, sometimes, fails to conform to the practical earthquake damages. Based on the damage of Tangshan earthquake and engineering geological conditions, three typical sites are chosen. Moreover, the sand liquefaction probability was evaluated on the three sites by using the method in the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings and the results were compared with the sand liquefaction phenomenon in the earthquake. The result shows that the difference between sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and the practical earthquake damage is mainly attributed to the following two aspects: The primary reasons include disparity between seismic fortification intensity and practical seismic oscillation, changes of groundwater level, thickness of overlying non-liquefied soil layer, local site effect and personal error. Meanwhile, although the judgment methods in the codes exhibit certain universality, they are another reason causing the above difference due to the limitation of basic data and the qualitative anomaly of the judgment formulas.

  19. Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

    2017-10-01

    Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

  20. Gas turbine engine turbine blade damaging estimate in maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ель-Хожайрі Хусейн

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available  The factors determining character and intensity of corrosive damages of gas turbine blades are analyzed in the article. The classification of detrimental impurities polluting gas turbine airflow duct and injuring blade erosion damages are given. Common features of the method of turbine blade corrosive damage estimation are shown in the article.

  1. Sandy Damage Estimates by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — A FEMA housing inspection for renters is used to assess personal property loss and for owners to assess damage to their home as well as personal property. This...

  2. DEPENDENCE OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF COMMERCIAL DAMAGES DUE TO POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CLASS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF A BUILDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanzada R. Zajnulabidova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Objectives To determine the damage probability of earthquakes of different intensities on the example of a real projected railway station building having a framework design scheme based on the density function of damage distribution. Methods Uncertainty, always existing in nature, invalidates a deterministic approach to the assessment of territorial seismic hazards and, consequently, seismic risk. In this case, seismic risk assessment can be carried out on a probabilistic basis. Thus, the risk will always be there, but it must be minimised. The task of optimising the reinforcement costs is solved by using the density distribution function for seismic effects of varying intensity, taking into account the degree of building responsibility. Results The distribution functions of the expected damage for a building with a reinforced concrete frame located in a highly seismic region with a repetition of 9-point shocks every 500 years and 10-point shocks once every 5000 years are constructed. A significant effect of the seismic resistance class of a building on the form of the distribution functions is shown. For structures of a high seismic resistance class, not only is the seismic risk reduced, but also the variance of the expected damage. From the graphs obtained, it can be seen that the seismic resistance class significantly affects the damage distribution. At a probability of 0.997, the expected damage for a non-reinforced building will exceed 43%; for a reinforced one it is only 10%. It also follows from the graphs that the variance of the damage magnitude decreases with the growth of the seismic resistance class of the building. This fact is an additional incentive for investing in antiseismic reinforcement of buildings. Conclusion The study shows the expediency of working with the damage density distribution function when managing seismic risk. In this case, it becomes possible to strengthen the building with a specified probability of

  3. Contribution to the damage measurement of reinforced concrete buildings under seismic solicitations: proposal of an improvement for the evaluation of the damaging potential of a signal and of the damage for the girders structures: introduction to the reliability analysis of the damage in terms of the damaging potential of a seismic signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naze, P.A.

    2004-12-01

    Building damage measurement during and after an earthquake remains an economical as well as technical stake as difficult to cope with as the problem it raises all the more because its importance depends on the field or the building function: civil, medical, military, nuclear... Even building ruin remains one of the most critical diagnosis to establish. Then since prediction of earthquake still remains impossible, foreseeing structural damages due to seismic motion has become a key point in earthquake engineering. This work aims at evaluating the relevance of classical seismic signal damaging potential indices and at proposing improvement of these indices in order to provide better prediction of structural damage due to earthquake. The first part supplies a non exhaustive state of the art of main Damaging Potential Indices IP and Damage Indices ID used in earthquake engineering. In the second part, IP/ID correlations results are analysed in order to evaluate IP relevance, to justify displacement based approach use (capacity spectrum method) for damage prediction and to make good the proposal for improvement of Damaging Potential Index. But studding seismic signal damaging potential is usually not enough to foresee damage firstly because scalar representation of damaging potential is not easy to link to physics reality and secondly because of damage scattering often observed for a single value of seismic signal damaging potential. In the same way, a single damage index value may correspond to very different structural damage states. Hence, this work carries on with a contribution to damage index reliability improvement, able to detect real structural damage appearance as well as to quantify this damage by associating the distance between one structural sate and the structural collapse, defined as an instability. (author)

  4. Intensity estimation of historical earthquakes through seismic analysis of wooden house

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, I. K.; Soe, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    The intensity of historical earthquake records related with house collapses are estimated by the seismic analyses of traditional three-bay-straw-roof house. Eighteen artificial time histories for magnitudes 6-8, epicentral distances 5 km - 350 km and hard and soft soil condition were generated for the analyses. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed for a traditional three-bay-roof house. Damage level of the wooden house according to the input earthquake motions and the MM intensity were estimated by maximum displacement response at the top of columns. Considering the structural characteristics of the three-bay-straw-roof house, the largest historical earthquake record related to the house collapse is about MMI VIII

  5. Application of parallel computing to seismic damage process simulation of an arch dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Hong; Lin Gao; Li Jianbo

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of damage process of high arch dam subjected to strong earthquake shocks is significant to the evaluation of its performance and seismic safety, considering the catastrophic effect of dam failure. However, such numerical simulation requires rigorous computational capacity. Conventional serial computing falls short of that and parallel computing is a fairly promising solution to this problem. The parallel finite element code PDPAD was developed for the damage prediction of arch dams utilizing the damage model with inheterogeneity of concrete considered. Developed with programming language Fortran, the code uses a master/slave mode for programming, domain decomposition method for allocation of tasks, MPI (Message Passing Interface) for communication and solvers from AZTEC library for solution of large-scale equations. Speedup test showed that the performance of PDPAD was quite satisfactory. The code was employed to study the damage process of a being-built arch dam on a 4-node PC Cluster, with more than one million degrees of freedom considered. The obtained damage mode was quite similar to that of shaking table test, indicating that the proposed procedure and parallel code PDPAD has a good potential in simulating seismic damage mode of arch dams. With the rapidly growing need for massive computation emerged from engineering problems, parallel computing will find more and more applications in pertinent areas.

  6. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  7. Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

  8. Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

    2009-04-01

    Iran is a country located in a tectonic active belt and is prone to earthquake and related phenomena. In the recent years, several earthquakes caused many fatalities and damages to facilities, e.g. the Manjil (1990), Avaj (2002), Bam (2003) and Firuzabad-e-Kojur (2004) earthquakes. These earthquakes generated many landslides. For instance, catastrophic landslides triggered by the Manjil Earthquake (Ms = 7.7) in 1990 buried the village of Fatalak, killed more than 130 peoples and cut many important road and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. In general, earthquakes in Iran have been concentrated in two major zones with different seismicity characteristics: one is the region of Alborz and Central Iran and the other is the Zagros Orogenic Belt. Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose a time probabilistic approach for earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (2003), has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis of hazard estimates. This method consists in evaluating the recurrence of seismically induced slope failure conditions inferred from the Newmark's model. First, by adopting Arias Intensity to quantify seismic shaking and using different Arias attenuation relations for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros regions, well-established methods of seismic hazard assessment, based on the Cornell (1968) method, were employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 year). Then, following Jibson (1998), empirical formulae specifically developed for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros, were used to represent, according to the Newmark's model, the relation linking Newmark's displacement Dn to Arias intensity Ia and to slope critical acceleration ac. These formulae were employed to evaluate

  9. Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong; Shi, Bao-Ping; Sun, Liang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismicity model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.

  10. Seismic anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine fault, New Zealand, estimated by seismic interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, R.; Okada, T.; Yoshida, K.; Townend, J.; Boese, C. M.; Baratin, L. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Savage, M. K.

    2016-12-01

    We estimate shear wave velocity anisotropy in shallow crust near the Alpine fault using seismic interferometry of borehole vertical arrays. We utilized four borehole observations: two sensors are deployed in two boreholes of the Deep Fault Drilling Project in the hanging wall side, and the other two sites are located in the footwall side. Surface sensors deployed just above each borehole are used to make vertical arrays. Crosscorrelating rotated horizontal seismograms observed by the borehole and surface sensors, we extracted polarized shear waves propagating from the bottom to the surface of each borehole. The extracted shear waves show polarization angle dependence of travel time, indicating shear wave anisotropy between the two sensors. In the hanging wall side, the estimated fast shear wave directions are parallel to the Alpine fault. Strong anisotropy of 20% is observed at the site within 100 m from the Alpine fault. The hanging wall consists of mylonite and schist characterized by fault parallel foliation. In addition, an acoustic borehole imaging reveals fractures parallel to the Alpine fault. The fault parallel anisotropy suggest structural anisotropy is predominant in the hanging wall, demonstrating consistency of geological and seismological observations. In the footwall side, on the other hand, the angle between the fast direction and the strike of the Alpine fault is 33-40 degrees. Since the footwall is composed of granitoid that may not have planar structure, stress induced anisotropy is possibly predominant. The direction of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) estimated by focal mechanisms of regional earthquakes is 55 degrees of the Alpine fault. Possible interpretation of the difference between the fast direction and SHmax direction is depth rotation of stress field near the Alpine fault. Similar depth rotation of stress field is also observed in the SAFOD borehole at the San Andreas fault.

  11. Study on Repaired Earthquake-Damaged Bridge Piers under Seismic Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Deng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The concrete bridge pier damaged during earthquakes need be repaired to meet the design standards. Steel tube as a traditional material or FRP as a novel material has become popular to repair the damaged reinforced concrete (RC bridge piers. In this paper, experimental and finite element (FE studies are employed to analyze the confinement effectiveness of the different repair materials. The FE method was used to calculate the hysteretic behavior of three predamaged circle RC bridge piers repaired with steel tube, basalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP, and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP, respectively. Meanwhile, the repaired predamaged circle concrete bridge piers were tested by pseudo-static cyclic loading to study the seismic behavior and evaluate the confinement effectiveness of the different repair materials and techniques. The FE analysis and experimental results showed that the repaired piers had similar hysteretic curves with the original specimens and all the three repair techniques can restore the seismic performance of the earthquake-damaged piers. Steel tube jacketing can significantly improve the lateral stiffness and peak load of the damaged pier, while the BFRP and CFRP sheets cannot improve these properties due to their thin thickness.

  12. The Influence of Infill Wall Topology and Seismic Characteristics on the Response and Damage Distribution in Frame Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos Nanos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the effects of infill wall existence and arrangement in the seismic response of frame structures utilising the global structural damage index after Park/Ang (GDIPA and the maximum interstorey drift ratio (MISDR to express structural seismic response. Five different infill wall topologies of a 10-storey frame structure have been selected and analysed presenting an improved damage distribution model for infill wall bearing frames, hence promoting the use of nonstructural elements as a means of improving frame structural seismic behaviour and highlighting important aspects of structural response, demonstrating the suitability of such element implementation beyond their intended architectural scope.

  13. Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Bolton, David C.; Ren, Christopher X.; Riviere, Jacques; Marone, Chris; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.

    2018-02-01

    Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

  14. Estimated probability of the number of buildings damaged by the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis shows that the probability estimator of the building damage ... and homeowners) should reserve the cost of repair at least worth the risk of loss, to face ... Keywords: Citarum River; logistic regression; genetic algorithm; losses risk; ...

  15. Assessment of Seismic Damage on The Exist Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pınar, USTA; Nihat, MOROVA; EVCİ, Ahmet; ERGÜN, Serap

    2018-01-01

    Earthquake as a natural disaster could damage the lives of many people and buildings all over the world. These is micvulnerability of the buildings needs to be evaluated. Accurate evaluation of damage sustained by buildings during natural disaster events is critical to determine the buildings safety and their suitability for future occupancy. The earthquake is one of the disasters that structures face the most. There fore, there is a need to evaluate seismic damage and vulnerability of the buildings to protect them. These days fuzzy systems have been widely used in different fields of science because of its simpli city and efficiency. Fuzzy logic provides a suitable framework for reasoning, deduction, and decision making in fuzzy conditions. In this paper, studies on earthquake hazard evaluation of buildings by fuzzy logic modeling concepts in the literature have been investigated and evaluated, as a whole.

  16. Some preliminary results of a worldwide seismicity estimation: a case study of seismic hazard evaluation in South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Christova

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Global data have been widely used for seismicity and seismic hazard assessment by seismologists. In the present study we evaluate worldwide seismicity in terms of maps of maximum observed magnitude (Mmax, seismic moment (M 0 and seismic moment rate (M 0S. The data set used consists of a complete and homogeneous global catalogue of shallow (h £ 60 km earthquakes of magnitude MS ³ 5.5 for the time period 1894-1992. In order to construct maps of seismicity and seismic hazard the parameters a and b derived from the magnitude-frequency relationship were estimated by both: a the least squares, and b the maximum likelihood, methods. The values of a and b were determined considering circles centered at each grid point 1° (of a mesh 1° ´1° and of varying radius, which starts from 30 km and moves with a step of 10 km. Only a and b values which fulfill some predefined conditions were considered in the further procedure for evaluating the seismic hazard maps. The obtained worldwide M max distribution in general delineates the contours of the plate boundaries. The highest values of M max observed are along the circum-Pacific belt and in the Himalayan area. The subduction plate boundaries are characterized by the largest amount of M 0 , while areas of continental collision are next. The highest values of seismic moment rate (per 1 year and per equal area of 10 000 km 2 are found in the Southern Himalayas. The western coasts of U.S.A., Northwestern Canada and Alaska, the Indian Ocean and the eastern rift of Africa are characterized by high values of M 0 , while most of the Pacific subduction zones have lower values of seismic moment rate. Finally we analyzed the seismic hazard in South America comparing the predicted by the NUVEL1 model convergence slip rate between Nazca and South America plates with the average slip rate due to earthquakes. This consideration allows for distinguishing between zones of high and low coupling along the studied convergence

  17. Simple estimating method of damages of concrete gravity dam based on linear dynamic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, T.; Kanenawa, K.; Yamaguchi, Y. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan). Hydraulic Engineering Research Group

    2004-07-01

    Due to the occurrence of large earthquakes like the Kobe Earthquake in 1995, there is a strong need to verify seismic resistance of dams against much larger earthquake motions than those considered in the present design standard in Japan. Problems exist in using nonlinear analysis to evaluate the safety of dams including: that the influence which the set material properties have on the results of nonlinear analysis is large, and that the results of nonlinear analysis differ greatly according to the damage estimation models or analysis programs. This paper reports the evaluation indices based on a linear dynamic analysis method and the characteristics of the progress of cracks in concrete gravity dams with different shapes using a nonlinear dynamic analysis method. The study concludes that if simple linear dynamic analysis is appropriately conducted to estimate tensile stress at potential locations of initiating cracks, the damage due to cracks would be predicted roughly. 4 refs., 1 tab., 13 figs.

  18. Estimating the Direct Economic Damage of the Earthquake in Haiti

    OpenAIRE

    Cavallo, Eduardo; Powell, Andrew; Becerra, Oscar

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti’s economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn for a death toll of 250,000, but for several reasons this may be a lower- bound estimate. An ...

  19. Rock property estimates using multiple seismic attributes and neural networks; Pegasus Field, West Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuelke, J.S.; Quirein, J.A.; Sarg, J.F.

    1998-12-31

    This case study shows the benefit of using multiple seismic trace attributes and the pattern recognition capabilities of neural networks to predict reservoir architecture and porosity distribution in the Pegasus Field, West Texas. The study used the power of neural networks to integrate geologic, borehole and seismic data. Illustrated are the improvements between the new neural network approach and the more traditional method of seismic trace inversion for porosity estimation. Comprehensive statistical methods and interpretational/subjective measures are used in the prediction of porosity from seismic attributes. A 3-D volume of seismic derived porosity estimates for the Devonian reservoir provide a very detailed estimate of porosity, both spatially and vertically, for the field. The additional reservoir porosity detail provided, between the well control, allows for optimal placement of horizontal wells and improved field development. 6 refs., 2 figs.

  20. Damage severity estimation from the global stiffness decrease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitescu, C; Gillich, G R; Manescu, T; Korka, Z I; Abdel Wahab, M

    2017-01-01

    In actual damage detection methods, localization and severity estimation can be treated separately. The severity is commonly estimated using fracture mechanics approach, with the main disadvantage of involving empirically deduced relations. In this paper, a damage severity estimator based on the global stiffness reduction is proposed. This feature is computed from the deflections of the intact and damaged beam, respectively. The damage is always located where the bending moment achieves maxima. If the damage is positioned elsewhere on the beam, its effect becomes lower, because the stress is produced by a diminished bending moment. It is shown that the global stiffness reduction produced by a crack is the same for all beams with a similar cross-section, regardless of the boundary conditions. One mathematical relation indicating the severity and another indicating the effect of removing damage from the beam. Measurements on damaged beams with different boundary conditions and cross-sections are carried out, and the location and severity are found using the proposed relations. These comparisons prove that the proposed approach can be used to accurately compute the severity estimator. (paper)

  1. Seismic response and damage detection analyses of an instrumented steel moment-framed building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, J.E.; Celebi, M.

    2006-01-01

    The seismic performance of steel moment-framed buildings has been of particular interest since brittle fractures were discovered at the beam-column connections in a number of buildings following the M 6.7 Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. A case study of the seismic behavior of an extensively instrumented 13-story steel moment frame building located in the greater Los Angeles area of California is described herein. Response studies using frequency domain, joint time-frequency, system identification, and simple damage detection analyses are performed using an extensive strong motion dataset dating from 1971 to the present, supported by engineering drawings and results of postearthquake inspections. These studies show that the building's response is more complex than would be expected from its highly symmetrical geometry. The response is characterized by low damping in the fundamental mode, larger accelerations in the middle and lower stories than at the roof and base, extended periods of vibration after the cessation of strong input shaking, beating in the response, elliptical particle motion, and significant torsion during strong shaking at the top of the concrete piers which extend from the basement to the second floor. The analyses conducted indicate that the response of the structure was elastic in all recorded earthquakes to date, including Northridge. Also, several simple damage detection methods employed did not indicate any structural damage or connection fractures. The combination of a large, real structure and low instrumentation density precluded the application of many recently proposed advanced damage detection methods in this case study. Overall, however, the findings of this study are consistent with the limited code-compliant postearthquake intrusive inspections conducted after the Northridge earthquake, which found no connection fractures or other structural damage. ?? ASCE.

  2. The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation

  3. The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation.

  4. Adaptive multiscale MCMC algorithm for uncertainty quantification in seismic parameter estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Tan, Xiaosi; Gibson, Richard L.; Leung, Wing Tat; Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2014-01-01

    problem. In this paper, we consider Bayesian inversion for the parameter estimation in seismic wave propagation. The Bayes' theorem allows writing the posterior distribution via the likelihood function and the prior distribution where the latter represents

  5. Estimation of Seismic Wavelets Based on the Multivariate Scale Mixture of Gaussians Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing-Huai Gao

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method for estimating seismic wavelets. Suppose a seismic wavelet can be modeled by a formula with three free parameters (scale, frequency and phase. We can transform the estimation of the wavelet into determining these three parameters. The phase of the wavelet is estimated by constant-phase rotation to the seismic signal, while the other two parameters are obtained by the Higher-order Statistics (HOS (fourth-order cumulant matching method. In order to derive the estimator of the Higher-order Statistics (HOS, the multivariate scale mixture of Gaussians (MSMG model is applied to formulating the multivariate joint probability density function (PDF of the seismic signal. By this way, we can represent HOS as a polynomial function of second-order statistics to improve the anti-noise performance and accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can work well for short time series.

  6. Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

  7. Fatigue-Damage Estimation and Control for Wind Turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus

    2015-01-01

    How can fatigue-damage for control of wind turbines be represented? Fatigue-damage is indeed a crucial factor in structures such as wind turbines that are exposed to turbulent and rapidly changing wind flow conditions. This is relevant both in their design stage and during the control of their operation. Accordingly, the most recognized methods of fatigue-damage estimation are discussed in this thesis.In wind energy conversion systems there is an intrinsic trade-off between power generation m...

  8. Seismogenic zonation and seismic hazard estimates in a Southern Italy area (Northern Apulia characterised by moderate seismicity rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Del Gaudio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The northernmost part of Apulia, in Southern Italy, is an emerged portion of the Adriatic plate, which in past centuries was hit by at least three disastrous earthquakes and at present is occasionally affected by seismic events of moderate energy. In the latest seismic hazard assessment carried out in Italy at national scale, the adopted seismogenic zonation (named ZS9 has defined for this area a single zone including parts of different structural units (chain, foredeep, foreland. However significant seismic behaviour differences were revealed among them by our recent studies and, therefore, we re-evaluated local seismic hazard by adopting a zonation, named ZNA, modifying the ZS9 to separate areas of Northern Apulia belonging to different structural domains. To overcome the problem of the limited datasets of historical events available for small zones having a relatively low rate of earthquake recurrence, an approach was adopted that integrates historical and instrumental event data. The latter were declustered with a procedure specifically devised to process datasets of low to moderate magnitude shocks. Seismicity rates were then calculated following alternative procedural choices, according to a "logic tree" approach, to explore the influence of epistemic uncertainties on the final results and to evaluate, among these, the importance of the uncertainty in seismogenic zonation. The comparison between the results obtained using zonations ZNA and ZS9 confirms the well known "spreading effect" that the use of larger seismogenic zones has on hazard estimates. This effect can locally determine underestimates or overestimates by amounts that make necessary a careful reconsideration of seismic classification and building code application.

  9. Passive seismic monitoring at the ketzin CCS site -Magnitude estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, B.F.; Steeghs, T.P.H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to allow quantification of the strength of local micro-seismic events recorded at the CCS pilot site in Ketzin in terms of local magnitude, earthquake data recorded by standardized seismometers were used. Earthquakes were selected that occurred in Poland and Czech Republic and that were

  10. Fatigue-Damage Estimation and Control for Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus

    How can fatigue-damage for control of wind turbines be represented? Fatigue-damage is indeed a crucial factor in structures such as wind turbines that are exposed to turbulent and rapidly changing wind flow conditions. This is relevant both in their design stage and during the control......, the inclusion of fatigue-damage within feedback control loops is of special interest. Four strategies in total are proposed in this work: three for the wind turbine level and one for the wind farm level. On one hand, the three strategies in the turbine level are based on hysteresis operators and strive......-damage estimation in wind turbine components, to the mixed objective operation of wind energy conversion systems, and to the synthesis of control strategies that include hysteresis operators....

  11. Fundamental aspects of seismic event detection, magnitude estimation and their interrelation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringdal, F.

    1977-01-01

    The main common subject of the papers forming this thesis is statistical model development within the seismological disciplines of seismic event detection and event magnitude estimation. As more high quality seismic data become available as a result of recent seismic network developments, the opportunity will exist for large scale application and further refinement of these models. It is hoped that the work presented here will facilitate improved understanding of the basic issues, both within earthquake-explosion discrimination, in the framework of which most of this work originated, and in seismology in general. (Auth.)

  12. Estimation of historical earthquake intensities and intensity-PGA relationship for wooden house damages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In-Kil; Seo, Jeong-Moon

    2002-01-01

    A series of tests and dynamic analyses on Korean traditional wooden houses was performed for the intensity estimation of the typical large historical earthquake records. Static and cyclic lateral load tests on the wooden frames were performed to assess the lateral load capacity of wooden frames. The shaking table tests on two 1:4 scaled models of a Korean ancient commoner's house made of fresh pine lumber were performed. Typical earthquake time histories recorded on soil and rock sites were used as input for the tests. The prototypical wooden house was analyzed for multiple time histories which match Ohsaki's ground response spectra. Seismic analyses comprise the aging of lumber and different soil condition. The relationship between the earthquake intensity and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is proposed for the wooden house damages based on the results of this study. The intensity of major Korean historical earthquake records related with house collapses was quantitatively estimated to be MM VIII

  13. A methodology to calibrate water saturation estimated from 4D seismic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davolio, Alessandra; Maschio, Célio; José Schiozer, Denis

    2014-01-01

    Time-lapse seismic data can be used to estimate saturation changes within a reservoir, which is valuable information for reservoir management as it plays an important role in updating reservoir simulation models. The process of updating reservoir properties, history matching, can incorporate estimated saturation changes qualitatively or quantitatively. For quantitative approaches, reliable information from 4D seismic data is important. This work proposes a methodology to calibrate the volume of water in the estimated saturation maps, as these maps can be wrongly estimated due to problems with seismic signals (such as noise, errors associated with data processing and resolution issues). The idea is to condition the 4D seismic data to known information provided by engineering, in this case the known amount of injected and produced water in the field. The application of the proposed methodology in an inversion process (previously published) that estimates saturation from 4D seismic data is presented, followed by a discussion concerning the use of such data in a history matching process. The methodology is applied to a synthetic dataset to validate the results, the main of which are: (1) reduction of the effects of noise and errors in the estimated saturation, yielding more reliable data to be used quantitatively or qualitatively and (2) an improvement in the properties update after using this data in a history matching procedure. (paper)

  14. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  15. Application on technique of joint time-frequency analysis of seismic signal's first arrival estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chaoyang; Liu Junmin; Fan Yanfang; Ji Guohua

    2008-01-01

    Joint time-frequency analysis is conducted to construct one joint density function of time and frequency. It can open out one signal's frequency components and their evolvements. It is the new evolvement of Fourier analysis. In this paper, according to the characteristic of seismic signal's noise, one estimation method of seismic signal's first arrival based on triple correlation of joint time-frequency spectrum is introduced, and the results of experiment and conclusion are presented. (authors)

  16. Seismic damage to structures in the M s6.5 Ludian earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Xie, Quancai; Dai, Boyang; Zhang, Haoyu; Chen, Hongfu

    2016-03-01

    On 3 August 2014, the Ludian earthquake struck northwest Yunnan Province with a surface wave magnitude of 6.5. This moderate earthquake unexpectedly caused high fatalities and great economic loss. Four strong motion stations were located in the areas with intensity V, VI, VII and IX, near the epicentre. The characteristics of the ground motion are discussed herein, including 1) ground motion was strong at a period of less than 1.4 s, which covered the natural vibration period of a large number of structures; and 2) the release energy was concentrated geographically. Based on materials collected during emergency building inspections, the damage patterns of adobe, masonry, timber frame and reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures in areas with different intensities are summarised. Earthquake damage matrices of local buildings are also given for fragility evaluation and earthquake damage prediction. It is found that the collapse ratios of RC frame and confined masonry structures based on the new design code are significantly lower than non-seismic buildings. However, the RC frame structures still failed to achieve the `strong column, weak beam' design target. Traditional timber frame structures with a light infill wall showed good aseismic performance.

  17. Estimation of reliability of seismic and electromagnetic monitoring in seismic active areas by diffraction tomography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Troyan

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the algorithms and results of the numerical simulation of the solution of a 2-D inverse problem on the restoration of seismic parameters and electrical conductivity of local inhomogeneities by the diffraction tomography method based upon the first order Born approximation. The direct problems for the Lame and Maxwell equations are solved by the finite difference method. Restoration of inhomogeneities which are not very weak is implemented with the use of a small number of receivers (source-receiver pairs.

  18. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  19. Seismotectonic Conditions and Seismic Risk in Gori

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varazanashvili, O.; Tsereteli, N.; Sumbadze, B.; Mukhadze, T.

    2006-01-01

    The seismic history and seismotectonic conditions of earthquake initiation are investigated in Gori and surrounding area. The main parameters of the newly discovered past earthquake at Takhtisdziri are estimated. The levels of seismic risk of 7,8 and 9 intensity scenario earthquakes estimated in Gori. Also damage of sity caused by destroying Kartli earthquake of 1920 is estimated. (author)

  20. Seismic Capacity Estimation of Steel Piping Elbow under Low-cycle Fatigue Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, Bub Gyu; Kim, Sung Wan; Choi, Hyoung Suk; Kim, Nam Sik [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Hahm, Dae Gi [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In some cases, this large relative displacement can increase seismic risk of the isolated facility. Especially, a inelastic behavior of crossover piping system to connect base isolated building and fixed base building can caused by a large relative displacement. Therefore, seismic capacity estimation for isolated piping system is needed to increase safety of nuclear power plant under seismic condition. Dynamic behavior analysis of piping system under seismic condition using shake table tests was performed by Touboul et al in 1995. In accordance with their study, plastic behavior could be occurred at pipe elbow under seismic condition. Experimental researches for dynamic behavior of typical piping system in nuclear power plant have been performed for several years by JNES(Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization) and NUPEC(Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation). A low cycle ratcheting fatigue test was performed with scaled model of elbow which is a weakest component in piping system by Mizuno et al. In-plane cyclic loading tests under internal pressure condition were performed to evaluate the seismic capacity of the steel piping elbow. Leakage phenomenon occurred on and near the crown in piping elbow. Those cracks grew up in axial direction. The fatigue curve was estimated from test results. In the fatigue curve, loading amplitude exponentially decreased as the number of cycles increased. A FEM model of piping elbow was modified with test results. The relationships between displacement and force from tests and numerical analysis was well matched.

  1. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  2. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates

  3. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

  4. GPS on Every Roof, GPS Sensor Network for Post-Seismic Building-Wise Damage Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji Oguni

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Development of wireless sensor network equipped with GPS for post-seismic building-wise damage identification is presented in this paper. This system is called GPS on Every Roof. Sensor node equipped with GPS antenna and receiver is installed on the top of the roof of each and every building. The position of this sensor node is measured before and after earthquake. The final goal of this system is to i identify the displacement of the roof of each house and ii collect the information of displacement of the roof of the houses through wireless communication. Superposing this information on GIS, building-wise damage distribution due to earthquake can be obtained. The system overview, hardware and some of the key components of the system such as on-board GPS relative positioning algorithm to achieve the accuracy in the order of several centimeters are described in detail. Also, the results from a field experiment using a wireless sensor network with 39 sensor nodes are presented.

  5. Estimation of seismic attenuation of gas hydrate bearing sediments from multi-channel seismic data: A case study from Krishna-Godavari offshore basin

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dewangan, P.; Mandal, R.; Jaiswal, P.; Ramprasad, T.; Sriram, G.

    thickness of water column. The estimated effective Q-values, along the inline and crossline seismic profiles, depend on several factors such as gas hydrate, free gas and the complex fault system. The combined interpretation of the quality factor...

  6. Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterlark, Timothy; Donovan, Theodore; Feigl, Kurt L.; Haney, Matt; Thurber, Clifford H.; Tung, Sui

    2016-01-01

    The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

  7. Uses of probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard and nuclear power plants in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1983-01-01

    The use of probabilistic estimates is playing an increased role in the review of seismic hazard at nuclear power plants. The NRC Geosciences Branch emphasis has been on using these estimates in a relative rather than absolute manner and to gain insight on other approaches. Examples of this use include estimates to determine design levels, to determine equivalent hazard at different sites, to help define more realistic seismotectonic provinces, and to assess implied levels of acceptable risk using deterministic methods. Increased use of probabilistic estimates is expected. Probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard have a potential for misuse, however, and their successful integration into decision making requires they not be divorced from physical insight and scientific intuition

  8. The use of multiwavelets for uncertainty estimation in seismic surface wave dispersion.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poppeliers, Christian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report describes a new single-station analysis method to estimate the dispersion and uncer- tainty of seismic surface waves using the multiwavelet transform. Typically, when estimating the dispersion of a surface wave using only a single seismic station, the seismogram is decomposed into a series of narrow-band realizations using a bank of narrow-band filters. By then enveloping and normalizing the filtered seismograms and identifying the maximum power as a function of frequency, the group velocity can be estimated if the source-receiver distance is known. However, using the filter bank method, there is no robust way to estimate uncertainty. In this report, I in- troduce a new method of estimating the group velocity that includes an estimate of uncertainty. The method is similar to the conventional filter bank method, but uses a class of functions, called Slepian wavelets, to compute a series of wavelet transforms of the data. Each wavelet transform is mathematically similar to a filter bank, however, the time-frequency tradeoff is optimized. By taking multiple wavelet transforms, I form a population of dispersion estimates from which stan- dard statistical methods can be used to estimate uncertainty. I demonstrate the utility of this new method by applying it to synthetic data as well as ambient-noise surface-wave cross-correlelograms recorded by the University of Nevada Seismic Network.

  9. Framework for estimating response time data to conduct a seismic human reliability analysis - its feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jinkyun; Kin, Yochan; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2014-01-01

    This is because the PSA has been used for several decades as the representative tool to evaluate the safety of NPPs. To this end, it is inevitable to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) in conducting important tasks being considered in the PSA framework (i.e., HFEs; human failure events), which are able to significantly affect the safety of NPPs. In addition, it should be emphasized that the provision of a realistic human performance data is an important precondition for calculating HEPs under a seismic condition. Unfortunately, it seems that HRA methods being currently used for calculating HEPs under a seismic event do not properly consider the performance variation of human operators. For this reason, in this paper, a framework to estimate response time data that are critical for calculating HEPs is suggested with respect to a seismic intensity. This paper suggested a systematic framework for estimating response time data that would be one of the most critical for calculating HEPs. Although extensive review of existing literatures is indispensable for identifying response times of human operators who have to conduct a series of tasks prescribed in procedures based on a couple of wrong indications, it is highly expected that response time data for seismic HRA can be properly secured through revisiting response time data collected from diverse situations without concerning a seismic event

  10. Estimation of changes in saturation and pressure from 4D seismic AVO and time-shift analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trani, M.; Arts, R.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Brouwer, J.

    2011-01-01

    A reliable estimate of reservoir pressure and fluid saturation changes from time-lapse seismic data is difficult to obtain. Existing methods generally suffer from leakage between the estimated parameters. We propose a new method using different combinations of time-lapse seismic attributes based on

  11. Local amplification of seismic waves from the Denali earthquake and damaging seiches in Lake Union, Seattle, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberopoulou, A.; Qamar, A.; Pratt, T.L.; Creager, K.C.; Steele, W.P.

    2004-01-01

    The Mw7.9 Denali, Alaska earthquake of 3 November, 2002, caused minor damage to at least 20 houseboats in Seattle, Washington by initiating water waves in Lake Union. These water waves were likely initiated during the large amplitude seismic surface waves from this earthquake. Maps of spectral amplification recorded during the Denali earthquake on the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) strong-motion instruments show substantially increased shear and surface wave amplitudes coincident with the Seattle sedimentary basin. Because Lake Union is situated on the Seattle basin, the size of the water waves may have been increased by local amplification of the seismic waves by the basin. Complete hazard assessments require understanding the causes of these water waves during future earthquakes. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. USE OF BOUNDING ANALYSES TO ESTIMATE THE PREFORMANCE OF A SEISMICALLY ISOLATED STRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökhan ÖZDEMİR

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Current design approach for seismic isolated structures is to perform bounding analyses. These analyses provide an envelope for the response of the seismic isolated structure rather than focusing on the actual performance. In this study, the success of bounding analyses to estimate performance of a seismic isolated structure, in which the isolation is provided by means of lead rubber bearings (LRBs, is evaluated in a comparative manner. For this purpose, nonlinear response history analyses were performed under the effect of bidirectional ground motion excitations. In bounding analyses, non-deteriorating hysteretic representations were used to model the hysteretic behavior of LRBs. On the other hand, to estimate the actual performance of both the superstructure and isolator units, deteriorating hysteretic idealizations were employed. The deterioration in strength of LRBs was defined as a function of temperature rise in the lead core. The analyzed structure is an existing seismically isolated hospital building and analytically modeled in accordance with its reported design properties for both isolation units and superstructure. Results obtained from analyses where LRBs are idealized by both deteriorating and non-deteriorating hysteretic representations are used in the comparisons. The response quantities used in the comparisons are maximum isolator displacement, maximum isolator force, maximum absolute floor acceleration, and maximum relative story displacements. In an average sense, bounding analyses is found to provide conservative estimates for the selected response quantities and fulfills its intended purpose. However, it is revealed that there may be individual cases where bounding analyses fails to provide a safe envelope.

  13. Estimation of sea surface temperature (SST) using marine seismic data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sinha, S.K.; Dewangan, P.; Sain, K.

    for the inversion. We also discuss processing techniques, such as first-break picking and cross-correlation for the estimation of soundspeed, that are well known among petroleum-industry geophysicists. The accuracy of the methods is directly linked to the data...

  14. The Estimation Modelling of Damaged Areas by Harmful Animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, R.; Sung, M.; Hwang, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Republic of Korea has undergone rapid development and urban development without sufficient consideration of the environment. This type of growth is accompanied by a reduction in forest area and wildlife habitat. It is a phenomenon that affects the habitat of large mammals more than small. Especially in Korea, the damage caused by wild boar(Sus scrofa) is harsher than other large mammalian species like water deer(Hydropotes inermis), which also means that the number of these reported cases of this species is higher than ones of other mammals. Wild boar has three to eight cubs per year and it is possible to breed every year, which makes it more populous comparing with the fragmented habitats. It could be regarded as one of the top predators in Korea, which it is inevitable for humans to intervene this creature in population control. In addition, some individuals have been forced to be retreated from other habitats in major habitats, or to invade human activity areas for food activity, thereby destroying crops. Ultimately, this mammal species has been treated as farm pest animals through committing road kills and urban emergences. In this study, we has estimated possible farm pest animal present points from the damage district using 2,505 hazardous wildlife damage areas with four types of geological informations, four kinds of forest information, land cover, and distribution of farmland occurred in Gyeongnam province in Korea. In the estimating model, utilizing MAXENT, information of background point was set to 10,000, 70% of the damaged sites were used to construct the model, 30% was used for verification, and 10 times of crossvalidate were proceeded - verified by AUC of ROC. As a result of analyses, AUC was 0.847, and the percent contribution of the forest information was the distance toward inner-forest areas, 36.1%, the land cover, 16.5%, the distance from the field, 14.9%. Furthermore, the permutation importance was 24.9% of the cover, 12.3% of the height

  15. Automated dose estimation for lost or damaged dosimeters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.L.; Deininger, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports that some dosimetry vendors will compute doses for their customers' lost/damaged dosimeters based upon an average of recent dosimeter readings. However, the vendors usually require authorization from the customer for each such occurrence. Therefore, the tedious task of keeping track of the overdue status of each missing dosimeter and constantly notifying the vendor is still present. Also, depending on the monthly variability of a given person's doses, it may be more valid to use the employee's average dose, his/her highest dose over a recent period, an average dose of other employees with similar job duties for that period, or the maximum permissible dose. Thus, the task of estimating doses for lost/damaged dosimeters cannot be delegated to dosimetry vendor. Instead, the radiation safety department must sue the data supplied by the vendor as input for performing estimates. The process is performed automatically at the Medical Center Hospital of Vermont using a personal computer and a relational database

  16. Seismic damage diagnosis of a masonry building using short-term damping measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouris, Leonidas Alexandros S.; Penna, Andrea; Magenes, Guido

    2017-04-01

    It is of considerable importance to perform dynamic identification and detect damage in existing structures. This paper describes a new and practical method for damage diagnosis of masonry buildings requiring minimum computational effort. The method is based on the relative variation of modal damping and validated against experimental data from a full scale two storey shake table test. The experiment involves a building subjected to uniaxial vibrations of progressively increasing intensity at the facilities of EUCENTRE laboratory (Pavia, Italy) up to a near collapse damage state. Five time-histories are applied scaling the Montenegro (1979) accelerogram. These strong motion tests are preceded by random vibration tests (RVT's) which are used to perform modal analysis. Two deterministic methods are applied: the single degree of freedom (SDOF) assumption together with the peak-picking method in the discrete frequency domain and the Eigen realisation algorithm with data correlations (ERA-DC) in the discrete time domain. Regarding the former procedure, some improvements are incorporated to locate rigorously the natural frequencies and estimate the modal damping. The progressive evolution of the modal damping is used as a key indicator to characterise damage on the building. Modal damping is connected to the structural mass and stiffness. A square integrated but only with two components expression for proportional (classical) damping is proposed to fit better with the experimental measurements of modal damping ratios. Using this Rayleigh order formulation the contribution of each of the damping components is evaluated. The stiffness component coefficient is proposed as an effective index to detect damage and quantify its intensity.

  17. Radiation displacement damage estimates for a radionuclide waste stabilization material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, K.W.

    1977-01-01

    Estimates of the number of atomic displacements produced in pollucite by the radioactive decay of Cs-134 are made. Pollucite is a candidate material for radionuclide waste stabilization, while Cs-134 is one of the radionuclide products which would be chemically bound in the pollucite lattice. At the maximum concentration of Cs-134 in pollucite, assuming a threshold displacement energy of 15.0 eV, the displacement rate is estimated to be 4.3 x 10 12 atoms/cm 3 /second which includes all atomic species in the pollucite lattice. It was found that most of the displacements, 85 percent, were caused by elastic scattering of photoelectrons and Compton electrons which are products of γ-ray interactions in the material. Most of the remaining displacements are caused by elastic scattering of β-particles. Recoil energies of the Ba daughter product are insufficient to cause displacement. Atomic displacements of nearest neighbors, atoms within one lattice spacing of the decay site, are estimated to be 2.7 x 10 6 atoms/cm 3 /second. These estimates provide a starting point for assessing the long term stability of pollucite to radiation damage

  18. Application of seismic isolation for seismic strengthening of buildings damaged by the earthquake of L’Aquila

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corsetti, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    The earthquake of 6 April 2009 destroyed the social and economic network fabric of the town of 'L'Aquila'. Since then, many buildings have been restored and some designers have taken the opportunity of rebuilding the town applying innovative technologies. In this context, despite the inevitable bureaucratic hurdles and economic constraints, added to the death of Mr. Mancinelli in 2012 (GLIS Member), several projects were carried out on existing buildings with the idea of applying base seismic isolation. A decade after the first application of this solution on an existing building in Fabriano by Mr. Mancinelli, the experience has proved to be a success, both in terms of achieved results and ease of management. For L’Aquila earthquake the idea was to replicate the positive experience of the “Marche earthquake”, though the problems and obstacles to face often were substantially different. The experience outlined below is a summary of the issues faced and resolved in two projects, taking into account that any solution can be further improved and refined depending on the ability and sensitivity of the designer. We have come to the conclusion that the projects of a base seismic isolation of existing buildings are 'tailor-made' projects, and that the solutions have to be analysed a case by case, even if the main concepts are simple and applicable to a wide range of buildings [it

  19. Development of a low cost method to estimate the seismic signature of a geothermal field form ambient noise analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tibuleac, Ileana [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

    2016-06-30

    A new, cost effective and non-invasive exploration method using ambient seismic noise has been tested at Soda Lake, NV, with promising results. The material included in this report demonstrates that, with the advantage of initial S-velocity models estimated from ambient noise surface waves, the seismic reflection survey, although with lower resolution, reproduces the results of the active survey when the ambient seismic noise is not contaminated by strong cultural noise. Ambient noise resolution is less at depth (below 1000m) compared to the active survey. In general, the results are promising and useful information can be recovered from ambient seismic noise, including dipping features and fault locations.

  20. Improving slowness estimate stability and visualization using limited sensor pair correlation on seismic arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbons, Steven J.; Näsholm, S. P.; Ruigrok, E.; Kværna, T.

    2018-04-01

    Seismic arrays enhance signal detection and parameter estimation by exploiting the time-delays between arriving signals on sensors at nearby locations. Parameter estimates can suffer due to both signal incoherence, with diminished waveform similarity between sensors, and aberration, with time-delays between coherent waveforms poorly represented by the wave-front model. Sensor-to-sensor correlation approaches to parameter estimation have an advantage over direct beamforming approaches in that individual sensor-pairs can be omitted without necessarily omitting entirely the data from each of the sensors involved. Specifically, we can omit correlations between sensors for which signal coherence in an optimal frequency band is anticipated to be poor or for which anomalous time-delays are anticipated. In practice, this usually means omitting correlations between more distant sensors. We present examples from International Monitoring System seismic arrays with poor parameter estimates resulting when classical f-k analysis is performed over the full array aperture. We demonstrate improved estimates and slowness grid displays using correlation beamforming restricted to correlations between sufficiently closely spaced sensors. This limited sensor-pair correlation (LSPC) approach has lower slowness resolution than would ideally be obtained by considering all sensor-pairs. However, this ideal estimate may be unattainable due to incoherence and/or aberration and the LSPC estimate can often exploit all channels, with the associated noise-suppression, while mitigating the complications arising from correlations between very distant sensors. The greatest need for the method is for short-period signals on large aperture arrays although we also demonstrate significant improvement for secondary regional phases on a small aperture array. LSPC can also provide a robust and flexible approach to parameter estimation on three-component seismic arrays.

  1. Types of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, M.G.; Algermissen, S.T.

    1984-01-01

    In the winter of 1811–1812 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes, Io ≥ VIII, occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi on the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The section of this poster titled "Seismic history of the New Madrid region" describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today?

  2. Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikia, C. K.; Helmberger, D. V.; Stead, R. J.; Woods, B. B.

    - It has proven difficult to uniquely untangle the source and propagation effects on the observed seismic data from underground nuclear explosions, even when large quantities of near-source, broadband data are available for analysis. This leads to uncertainties in our ability to quantify the nuclear seismic source function and, consequently the accuracy of seismic yield estimates for underground explosions. Extensive deterministic modeling analyses of the seismic data recorded from underground explosions at a variety of test sites have been conducted over the years and the results of these studies suggest that variations in the seismic source characteristics between test sites may be contributing to the observed differences in the magnitude/yield relations applicable at those sites. This contributes to our uncertainty in the determination of seismic yield estimates for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. In this paper we review issues involving the relationship of Nevada Test Site (NTS) source scaling laws to those at other sites. The Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) indicates that a magnitude (mb) bias (δmb) exists between the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Nevada test site (NTS) in the United States. Generally this δmb is attributed to differential attenuation in the upper-mantle beneath the two test sites. This assumption results in rather large estimates of yield for large mb tunnel shots at Novaya Zemlya. A re-examination of the US testing experiments suggests that this δmb bias can partly be explained by anomalous NTS (Pahute) source characteristics. This interpretation is based on the modeling of US events at a number of test sites. Using a modified Haskell source description, we investigated the influence of the source Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) parameters ψ ∞ , K and B by fitting short- and long-period data simultaneously, including the near-field body and surface waves. In general

  3. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  4. A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

    2016-12-01

    This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

  5. Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

    2010-01-01

    Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly

  6. ESTIMATION OF IRREVERSIBLE DAMAGEABILITY AT FATIGUE OF CARBON STEEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. O. Vakulenko

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Damageability estimation of carbon steel in the conditions of cyclic loading. Methodology. The steel fragments of railway wheel rim and rail head served as material for research with chemical composition 0.65 % С, 0.67 % Mn, 0.3 % Si, 0.027 % P, 0.028 % S и 0.7 % C, 0.82 % Mn, 0.56 % Si, 0.025 % P, 0.029 % S accordingly. The microstructure of tested steels corresponded to the state of metal after a hot plastic deformation. The fatigue research was conducted in the conditions of symmetric bend using the proof-of-concept machine of type «Saturn-10». Full Wohler diagrams and the lines corresponding to forming of sub-and micro cracks were constructed. The distribution analysis of internal stresses in the metal under cyclic loading was carried out using the microhardness tester of PMT-3 type.Findings. On the basis of fatigue curves for high-carbon steels analysis the positions of borders dividing the areas of convertible and irreversible damages were determined. The article shows that with the growth of carbon concentration in the steel at invariability of the structural state an increase of fatigue limit is observed. At the same time the acceleration of processes, which determine transition terms from the stage of forming of submicrocracks to the microcracks occurs. The research of microhardness distribution in the metal after destruction confirmed the nature of carbon amount influence on the carbon steel characteristics. Originality. Regardless on the stages of breakdown site forming the carbon steels behavior at a fatigue is determined by the ration between the processes of strengthening and softening. At a cyclic loading the heterogeneity of internal stresses distribution decreases with the increase of distance from the destruction surface. Analysis of metal internal restructuring processes at fatigue loading made it possible to determine that at the stages prior to incubation period in the metal microvolumes the cells are already

  7. Estimation of finite seismic source parameters for selected events of the West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr; Růžek, Bohuslav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 2 (2015), s. 403-421 ISSN 1383-4649 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/10/1728 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases * stress drop Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

  8. Quantitative estimation of lithofacies from seismic data in a tertiary turbidite system in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerstad, A.K.; Avseth, P.Aa; Mukerji, T.; Mavko, G.; Granli, J.R.

    1998-12-31

    Deep water clastic systems and associated turbidite reservoirs are often characterized by very complex sand distributions and reservoir description based on conventional seismic and well-log stratigraphic analysis may be very uncertain in these depositional environments. There is shown that reservoirs in turbidite systems have been produced very inefficiently in conventional development. More than 70% of the mobile oil is commonly left behind, because of the heterogeneous nature of these reservoirs. In this study there is examined a turbidite system in the North Sea with five available wells and a 3-D seismic near and far offset stack to establish most likely estimates of facies and pore fluid within the cube. 5 figs.

  9. Realtime estimation of city gas pipe network damage by lateral flow of liquefied ground behind quay walls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishida, E.; Isoyama, R. [Japan Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan). Public Management Research Center; Koganemaru, K.; Shimuzu, Y. [Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan). Center for Disaster Management and Supply Control; Morimoto, I. [Kiso-Jiban Consultants Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Yasuda, S. [Tokyo Denki Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

    2004-07-01

    Estimating the degree of damage to city gas pipe networks is difficult because of the lack of damage case data. This paper proposes a method for calculating the amount of earthquake-induced ground displacement at pipe node locations by constructing ground models. Data for the models was obtained from boreholes and by using a simple ground flow formula. The analysis method will make it possible to calculate the allowable limits of damage-causing factors such as ground motion and flow for different pipe network elements. The analysis procedure was conducted using a 2-dimensional liquefaction-induced flow analysis program finite element method. A real time damage estimation system for low pressure gas pipes uses ground motions having a design seismic coefficient of 0.4 in preparing strong earthquake liquefied layer thickness distribution data. Flow calculations were presented as well as a ground revetment database to replace node location data. It was concluded that achieving consistency was desirable. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  10. Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, L.; Frehner, M.; Sauer, K. M.; Toy, V.; Guerin-Marthe, S.; Boulton, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonitesLudmila Adam1, Marcel Frehner2, Katrina Sauer3, Virginia Toy3, Simon Guerin-Marthe4, Carolyn Boulton5(1) University of Auckland, New Zealand, (2) ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (3) University of Otago, New Zealand (4) Durham University, Earth Sciences, United Kingdom (5) Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Quartzo-feldspathic mylonites and schists are the main contributors to seismic wave anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault (New Zealand). We must determine how the physical properties of rocks like these influence elastic wave anisotropy if we want to unravel both the reasons for heterogeneous seismic wave propagation, and interpret deformation processes in fault zones. To study such controls on velocity anisotropy we can: 1) experimentally measure elastic wave anisotropy on cores at in-situ conditions or 2) estimate wave velocities by static (effective medium averaging) or dynamic (finite element) modelling based on EBSD data or photomicrographs. Here we compare all three approaches in study of schist and mylonite samples from the Alpine Fault. Volumetric proportions of intrinsically anisotropic micas in cleavage domains and comparatively isotropic quartz+feldspar in microlithons commonly vary significantly within one sample. Our analysis examines the effects of these phases and their arrangement, and further addresses how heterogeneity influences elastic wave anisotropy. We compare P-wave seismic anisotropy estimates based on millimetres-scale ultrasonic waves under in situ conditions, with simulations that account for micrometre-scale variations in elastic properties of constitutent minerals with the MTEX toolbox and finite-element wave propagation on EBSD images. We observe that the sorts of variations in the distribution of micas and quartz+feldspar within any one of our real core samples can change the elastic wave anisotropy by 10

  11. The Effects of Fracture Anisotropy on the Damage Pattern and Seismic Radiation from a Chemical Explosion in a Granite Quarry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers-Martinez, M. A.; Sammis, C. G.; Ezzedine, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the New England Damage Experiment (NEDE) a 122.7 kg Heavy ANFO charge was detonated at a depth of 13 m in a granite quarry in Barre Vt. Subsequent drill cores from the source region revealed that most of the resultant fracturing was concentrated in the rift plane of the highly anisotropic Barre granite. We simulated this explosion using a dynamic damage mechanics model embedded in the ABAQUS 3D finite element code. The damage mechanics was made anisotropic by taking the critical stress intensity factor to be a function of azimuth in concert with the physics of interacting parallel fractures and laboratory studies of anisotropic granite. In order to identify the effects of anisotropy, the explosion was also simulated assuming 1) no initial damage (pure elasticity) and 2) isotropic initial damage. For the anisotropic case, the calculated fracture pattern simulated that observed in NEDE. The simulated seismic radiation looked very much like that from a tensile fracture oriented in the rift plane, and similar to the crack-like moment tensor observed in the far field of many nuclear explosions.

  12. Earthquake source parameter and focal mechanism estimates for the Western Quebec Seismic Zone in eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Padilla, A. M.; Onwuemeka, J.; Liu, Y.; Harrington, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) is a 160-km-wide band of intraplate seismicity extending 500 km from the Adirondack Highlands (United States) to the Laurentian uplands (Canada). Historically, the WQSZ has experienced over fifteen earthquakes above magnitude 5, with the noteworthy MN5.2 Ladysmith event on May 17, 2013. Previous studies have associated seismicity in the area to the reactivation of Early Paleozoic normal faults within a failed Iapetan rift arm, or strength contrasts between mafic intrusions and felsic rocks due to the Mesozoic track of the Great Meteor hotspot. A good understanding of seismicity and its relation to pre-existing structures requires information about event source properties, such as static stress drop and fault plane orientation, which can be constrained via spectral analysis and focal mechanism solutions. Using data recorded by the CNSN and USArray Transportable Array, we first characterize b-value for 709 events between 2012 and 2016 in WQSZ, obtaining a value of 0.75. We then determine corner frequency and seismic moment values by fitting S-wave spectra on transverse components at all stations for 35 events MN 2.7+. We select event pairs with highly similar waveforms, proximal hypocenters, and magnitudes differing by 1-2 units. Our preliminary results using single-station spectra show corner frequencies of 15 to 40 Hz and stress drop values between 7 and 130 MPa, typical of intraplate seismicity. Last, we solve focal mechanism solutions of 35 events with impulsive P-wave arrivals at a minimum of 8 stations using the hybridMT moment tensor inversion algorithm. Our preliminary results suggest predominantly thrust faulting mechanisms, and at times oblique thrust faulting. The P-axis trend of the focal mechanism solutions suggests a principal stress orientation of NE-SW, which is consistent with that derived from focal mechanisms of earthquakes prior to 2013. We plan to fit the event pair spectral ratios to correct for attenuation

  13. The effect of Earth's oblateness on the seismic moment estimation from satellite gravimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Chunli; Guo, Junyi; Shang, Kun; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Rongjiang

    2018-05-01

    Over the last decade, satellite gravimetry, as a new class of geodetic sensors, has been increasingly studied for its use in improving source model inversion for large undersea earthquakes. When these satellite-observed gravity change data are used to estimate source parameters such as seismic moment, the forward modelling of earthquake seismic deformation is crucial because imperfect modelling could lead to errors in the resolved source parameters. Here, we discuss several modelling issues and focus on one modelling deficiency resulting from the upward continuation of gravity change considering the Earth's oblateness, which is ignored in contemporary studies. For the low degree (degree 60) time-variable gravity solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission data, the model-predicted gravity change would be overestimated by 9 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and about 6 per cent for the 2010 Maule earthquake. For high degree gravity solutions, the model-predicted gravity change at degree 240 would be overestimated by 30 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, resulting in the seismic moment to be systematically underestimated by 30 per cent.

  14. First-passage Probability Estimation of an Earthquake Response of Seismically Isolated Containment Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, Dae-Gi; Park, Kwan-Soon; Koh, Hyun-Moo

    2008-01-01

    The awareness of a seismic hazard and risk is being increased rapidly according to the frequent occurrences of the huge earthquakes such as the 2008 Sichuan earthquake which caused about 70,000 confirmed casualties and a 20 billion U.S. dollars economic loss. Since an earthquake load contains various uncertainties naturally, the safety of a structural system under an earthquake excitation has been assessed by probabilistic approaches. In many structural applications for a probabilistic safety assessment, it is often regarded that the failure of a system will occur when the response of the structure firstly crosses the limit barrier within a specified interval of time. The determination of such a failure probability is usually called the 'first-passage problem' and has been extensively studied during the last few decades. However, especially for the structures which show a significant nonlinear dynamic behavior, an effective and accurate method for the estimation of such a failure probability is not fully established yet. In this study, we presented a new approach to evaluate the first-passage probability of an earthquake response of seismically isolated structures. The proposed method is applied to the seismic isolation system for the containment buildings of a nuclear power plant. From the numerical example, we verified that the proposed method shows accurate results with more efficient computational efforts compared to the conventional approaches

  15. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ''internal initiators.'' This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10 -7 /year

  16. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events during mid-loop operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1) and the other at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf). Both the Brookhaven and Sandia projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults--so-called ''internal initiators.'' This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling shutdown conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Surry Unit 1. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human error rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Surry have been adopted here, so that the results of the two studies can be as comparable as possible. Both the Brookhaven study and this study examine only two shutdown plant operating states (POSs) during refueling outages at Surry, called POS 6 and POS 10, which represent mid-loop operation before and after refueling, respectively. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POSs 6 and 10. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency of earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 6 and POS 10 is found to be low in absolute terms, less than 10 -6 /year

  17. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  18. Estimating seismic moment magnitude (Mw) of tremor bursts in northern Cascadia: Implications for the “seismic efficiency” of episodic tremor and slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Honn; Wang, Kelin; Dragert, Herb; Kao, Jason Y.; Rogers, Garry

    2010-10-01

    We develop a method to estimate the seismic moments of deep non-volcanic tremor bursts observed in northern Cascadia. For each tremor burst, the maximum amplitudes at individual stations within a time window ±5 s around the predicted arrivals of the S phase are measured and compared to the maximum S amplitudes measured from synthetic seismograms. The proposed method is thoroughly calibrated using 464 local earthquakes and the results show excellent consistency between the reported ML and the estimated Mw. We apply the method to northern Cascadia tremors and infer that most bursts have Mw˜1.0-1.7. The corresponding b value appears to be 1, consistent with that of ordinary earthquakes but over a narrower Mw range. Comparison of cumulative tremor Mw and the Mw estimated from the accompanying slow slip suggests that the “seismic efficiency” of the Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) is of the order of 0.1% or less.

  19. Pre-stack estimation of time-lapse seismic velocity changes : an example from the Sleipner CO2-sequestration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghaderi, A.; Landro, M.; Ghaderi, A.

    2005-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is being injected into a shallow sand formation at around a 1,000 metre depth at the Sleipner Field located in the North Sea. It is expected that the CO 2 injected in the bottom of the formation, will form a plume consisting of CO 2 accumulating in thin lenses during migration up through the reservoir. Several studies have been published using stacked seismic data from 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2002. A thorough analysis of post-stack seismic data from the Sleipner CO2-Sequestration Pilot Project was conducted. Interpretation of seismic data is usually done on post-stack data. For a given subsurface reflection point, seismic data are acquired for various incidence angles, typically 40 angles. These 40 seismic signals are stacked together in order to reduce noise. The term pre-stack refers to seismic data prior to this step. For hydrocarbon-related 4-dimensional seismic studies, travel time shift estimations have been used. This paper compared pre-stack and post-stack estimation of average velocity changes based on measured 4-dimensional travel time shifts. It is more practical to compare estimated velocity changes than the actual travel time changes, since the time shifts vary with offset for pre-stack time-lapse seismic analysis. It was concluded that the pre-stack method gives smaller velocity changes when estimated between two key horizons. Therefore, pre-stack travel time analysis in addition to conventional post-stack analysis is recommended. 6 refs., 12 figs

  20. Sandy Damage Estimates Based on FEMA IA Registrant Inspection Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — A FEMA housing inspection for renters is used to assess personal property loss and for owners to assess damage to their home as well as personal property. This...

  1. Seismic qualification of non-safety class equipment whose failure would damage safety class equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaSalle, F.R.

    1991-01-01

    Both Code of Federal Regulations, Title 10, Part 50, and US Department of Energy Order 6340.1A have requirements to assess the interaction of non-safety and safety class structures and equipment during a seismic event to maintain the safety function. At the Hanford Site, a cost effective program has been developed to perform the evaluation of non-safety class equipment. Seismic qualification is performed by analysis, test, or upgrading of the equipment to ensure the integrity of safety class structures and equipment. This paper gives a brief overview and synopsis that address design analysis guidelines including applied loading, damping values, component anchorage, allowable loads, and stresses. Test qualification of equipment and walkdown acceptance criteria for heating ampersand ventilation (H ampersand V) ducting, conduit, cable tray, missile zone of influence, as well as energy criteria are presented

  2. Analysis of uncertainties in a probabilistic seismic hazard estimation, example for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beauval, C.

    2003-12-01

    This thesis proposes a new methodology that allows to pinpoint the key parameters that control probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and at the same time to quantify the impact of these parameters uncertainties on hazard estimates. Cornell-McGuire's method is used here. First, uncertainties on magnitude and location determinations are modeled and quantified: resulting variability on hazard estimates ranges between 5% and 25% (=COV), depending on the site and the return period. An impact study is then performed, in order to determine the hierarchy between the impacts on hazard of the choices of four other parameters: intensity-magnitude correlation, minimum and maximum magnitudes, the truncation of the attenuation relationship. The results at 34 Hz (PGA) indicate that the maximum magnitude is the less influent parameter (from 100 to 10000 years); whereas the intensity-magnitude correlation and the truncation of ground motion predictions (>2σ) are the controlling parameters at all return periods (up to 30% decrease each at 10000 years). An increase in the minimum magnitude contributing to the hazard, from 3.5 to 4.5, can also produce non-negligible impacts at small return periods (up to 20% decrease of hazard results at 475 years). Finally, the overall variability on hazard estimates due to the combined choices of the four parameters can reach up to 30% (COV, at 34 Hz). For lower frequencies (<5 Hz), the overall variability increases and maximum magnitude becomes a controlling parameter. Therefore, variability of estimates due to catalog uncertainties and to the choices of these four parameters must be taken into account in all probabilistic seismic hazard studies in France. To reduce variability in hazard estimates, future research should concentrate on the elaboration of an appropriate intensity- magnitude correlation, as well as on a more realistic way of taking into account ground motion dispersion. (author)

  3. Issues of damage estimation under radiation emergency situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volobuev, P.V.; Kozlova, N.I.

    2005-01-01

    The specificity of social, economical and ecological consequences of major radiation emergency situation is considered in the paper. The definitions and structure of direct and indirect damage under radiation emergency situation are given. The priority components of immediate expenses and those of long-term living on the contaminated territories are considered in the paper. (author)

  4. Effectiveness of two conventional methods for seismic retrofit of steel and RC moment resisting frames based on damage control criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti Aval, Seyed Bahram; Kouhestani, Hamed Sadegh; Mottaghi, Lida

    2017-07-01

    This study investigates the efficiency of two types of rehabilitation methods based on economic justification that can lead to logical decision making between the retrofitting schemes. Among various rehabilitation methods, concentric chevron bracing (CCB) and cylindrical friction damper (CFD) were selected. The performance assessment procedure of the frames is divided into two distinct phases. First, the limit state probabilities of the structures before and after rehabilitation are investigated. In the second phase, the seismic risk of structures in terms of life safety and financial losses (decision variables) using the recently published FEMA P58 methodology is evaluated. The results show that the proposed retrofitting methods improve the serviceability and life safety performance levels of steel and RC structures at different rates when subjected to earthquake loads. Moreover, these procedures reveal that financial losses are greatly decreased, and were more tangible by the application of CFD rather than using CCB. Although using both retrofitting methods reduced damage state probabilities, incorporation of a site-specific seismic hazard curve to evaluate mean annual occurrence frequency at the collapse prevention limit state caused unexpected results to be obtained. Contrary to CFD, the collapse probability of the structures retrofitted with CCB increased when compared with the primary structures.

  5. Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cannizzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

  6. Story damage index of seismically-excited buildings based on modal parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang J.-F.; Lin, C.-C.; Yen, S.-M.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a story damage index (SDI) for buildings is developed and expressed as a simple formula based on modal parameters extracted from real earthquake response records. It is useful because only one set of modal parameters is required for the calculation of the SDI to show the degree of damage of the story in question. According to numerical simulation results of five-story buildings with various story stiffness reductions and floor mass distributions, it is proven that the proposed SDI has both high accuracy and high reliability. This SDI is also applied to the damage assessment of a 7-story reinforced concrete hotel building in Van Nuys, California, which experienced severe structural damage during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. With both its fundamental frequency and mode shape identified by the SRIM (System Realization using Information Matrix) identification technique, it is shown that the SDI agrees fairly well with the results of the visual inspection, and is valuable in practical application. (authors)

  7. The relationship of seismic velocity structure and surface fracture characteristics of basalt outcrops to rippability estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, S.E.; Dougherty, M.E.; Pelton, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    Seismic velocity has been shown in previous engineering studies to be related to the fracture characteristics and rippability of rock outcrops. However, common methods of measuring seismic velocity in outcrops do not take into account the many possible travel paths for wave propagation and the fact that velocity zones may exist within an outcrop. Presented here are the results of using raytracing inversion of first-arrival travel-time data to map P-velocity structure in basalt outcrops, and also the investigation of the relationship of the mapped velocities to observed surface fractures and hand-sample P-velocities. It is shown that basalt outcrops commonly consist of an irregular near-surface low-velocity zone underlain by higher velocity material; that velocity gradients can exist in outcrops; that hand-sample velocity measurements are typically higher than outcrop-scale measurements; and that the characteristics of surface fractures are empirically related to near-surface P-velocity. All of these findings are relevant to the estimated rippability of rock in geotechnical engineering. The data for this study are derived from eleven sites on basalt outcrops of the Troodos Ophiolite in Cyprus. The basalt types include pillow basalts, massive flows, and a pillow breccia. A commonly available raytracing inversion program (RAYINVR) was used to produce a velocity profile of each outcrop. Different velocity zones were detailed by inverting observed travel times to produce a model of outcrop velocity structure which produces rippability profiles for each outcrop. 16 refs., 9 figs

  8. Adaptive multiscale MCMC algorithm for uncertainty quantification in seismic parameter estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Tan, Xiaosi

    2014-08-05

    Formulating an inverse problem in a Bayesian framework has several major advantages (Sen and Stoffa, 1996). It allows finding multiple solutions subject to flexible a priori information and performing uncertainty quantification in the inverse problem. In this paper, we consider Bayesian inversion for the parameter estimation in seismic wave propagation. The Bayes\\' theorem allows writing the posterior distribution via the likelihood function and the prior distribution where the latter represents our prior knowledge about physical properties. One of the popular algorithms for sampling this posterior distribution is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which involves making proposals and calculating their acceptance probabilities. However, for large-scale problems, MCMC is prohibitevely expensive as it requires many forward runs. In this paper, we propose a multilevel MCMC algorithm that employs multilevel forward simulations. Multilevel forward simulations are derived using Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Methods that we have proposed earlier (Efendiev et al., 2013a; Chung et al., 2013). Our overall Bayesian inversion approach provides a substantial speed-up both in the process of the sampling via preconditioning using approximate posteriors and the computation of the forward problems for different proposals by using the adaptive nature of multiscale methods. These aspects of the method are discussed n the paper. This paper is motivated by earlier work of M. Sen and his collaborators (Hong and Sen, 2007; Hong, 2008) who proposed the development of efficient MCMC techniques for seismic applications. In the paper, we present some preliminary numerical results.

  9. Assimilation of ambient seismic noise in hydrological models allows estimation of hydraulic conductivity in unsaturated media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fores, B.; Champollion, C.; Mainsant, G.; Fort, A.; Albaric, J.

    2016-12-01

    Karstic hydrosystems represent one of the main water resources in the Mediterranean area but are challenging for geophysical methods. The GEK (Geodesy in Karstic Environment) observatory has been setup in 2011 to study the unsaturated zone of a karstic system in the south of France. The unsaturated zone (the epikarst) is thick and up to 100m on the site. Since 2011, gravity, rainfall and evapotranspiration are monitored. Together, they allow precise estimation of the global water storage changes but lack depth resolution. Surface waves velocity variations, obtained from ambient seismic noise monitoring are used here to overcome this lack. Indeed, velocities depend on saturation and the depths where changes occur can be defined as surface waves are dispersive. From October 2014 to November 2015, two seismometers have been recording noise. Velocity changes at a narrow frequency band (6-8 Hz) have shown a clear annual cycle. Minimum velocity is several months late on precipitations, which is coherent with a slow infiltration and a maximum sensitivity at -40m for these frequencies and this site. Models have been made with the Hydrus-1D software which allows modeling 1D-flow in variably saturated media. With a stochastic sampling, we have researched the underground parameters that reproduce the most the different observations (gravity, evapotranspiration and rainfall, and velocity changes). We show that velocity changes clearly constrain the hydraulic conductivity of the medium. Ambient seismic noise is therefore a promising method to study unsaturated zone which are too deep or too heterogeneous for classic methods.

  10. Crustal composition in the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt estimated from seismic velocity by laboratory measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, K.; Ishikawa, M.; Sato, H.; Iwasaki, T.; Toyoshima, T.

    2015-12-01

    To understand the dynamics of the lithosphere in subduction systems, the knowledge of rock composition is significant. However, rock composition of the overriding plate is still poorly understood. To estimate rock composition of the lithosphere, it is an effective method to compare the elastic wave velocities measured under the high pressure and temperature condition with the seismic velocities obtained by active source experiment and earthquake observation. Due to an arc-arc collision in central Hokkaido, middle to lower crust is exposed along the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt (HMB), providing exceptional opportunities to study crust composition of an island arc. Across the HMB, P-wave velocity model has been constructed by refraction/wide-angle reflection seismic profiling (Iwasaki et al., 2004). Furthermore, because of the interpretation of the crustal structure (Ito, 2000), we can follow a continuous pass from the surface to the middle-lower crust. We corrected representative rock samples from HMB and measured ultrasonic P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocities (Vs) under the pressure up to 1.0 GPa in a temperature range from 25 to 400 °C. For example, the Vp values measured at 25 °C and 0.5 GPa are 5.88 km/s for the granite (74.29 wt.% SiO2), 6.02-6.34 km/s for the tonalites (66.31-68.92 wt.% SiO2), 6.34 km/s for the gneiss (64.69 wt.% SiO2), 6.41-7.05 km/s for the amphibolites (50.06-51.13 wt.% SiO2), and 7.42 km/s for the mafic granulite (50.94 wt.% SiO2). And, Vp of tonalites showed a correlation with SiO2 (wt.%). Comparing with the velocity profiles across the HMB (Iwasaki et al., 2004), we estimate that the lower to middle crust consists of amphibolite and tonalite, and the estimated acoustic impedance contrast between them suggests an existence of a clear reflective boundary, which accords well to the obtained seismic reflection profile (Iwasaki et al., 2014). And, we can obtain the same tendency from comparing measured Vp/Vs ratio and Vp/Vs ratio structure model

  11. Yield Estimation for Semipalatinsk Underground Nuclear Explosions Using Seismic Surface-wave Observations at Near-regional Distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adushkin, V. V.

    - A statistical procedure is described for estimating the yields of underground nuclear tests at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site using the peak amplitudes of short-period surface waves observed at near-regional distances (Δ Semipalatinsk explosions, including the Soviet JVE explosion of September 14, 1988, and it is demonstrated that it provides seismic estimates of explosion yield which are typically within 20% of the yields determined for these same explosions using more accurate, non-seismic techniques based on near-source observations.

  12. Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carausu, A.

    1996-01-01

    A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

  13. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  14. Multi-Level Interval Estimation for Locating damage in Structures by Using Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Danguang; Gao Yanhua; Song Junlei

    2010-01-01

    A new analysis technique, called multi-level interval estimation method, is developed for locating damage in structures. In this method, the artificial neural networks (ANN) analysis method is combined with the statistics theory to estimate the range of damage location. The ANN is multilayer perceptron trained by back-propagation. Natural frequencies and modal shape at a few selected points are used as input to identify the location and severity of damage. Considering the large-scale structures which have lots of elements, multi-level interval estimation method is developed to reduce the estimation range of damage location step-by-step. Every step, estimation range of damage location is obtained from the output of ANN by using the method of interval estimation. The next ANN training cases are selected from the estimation range after linear transform, and the output of new ANN estimation range of damage location will gained a reduced estimation range. Two numerical example analyses on 10-bar truss and 100-bar truss are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Controlled source electromagnetic data analysis with seismic constraints and rigorous uncertainty estimation in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrmann, R. A. S.; Schwalenberg, K.; Hölz, S.; Zander, T.; Dettmer, J.; Bialas, J.

    2016-12-01

    In 2014 an interdisciplinary survey was conducted as part of the German SUGAR project in the Western Black Sea targeting gas hydrate occurrences in the Danube Delta. Marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) data were acquired with an inline seafloor-towed array (BGR), and a two-polarization horizontal ocean-bottom source and receiver configuration (GEOMAR). The CSEM data are co-located with high-resolution 2-D and 3-D seismic reflection data (GEOMAR). We present results from 2-D regularized inversion (MARE2DEM by Kerry Key), which provides a smooth model of the electrical resistivity distribution beneath the source and multiple receivers. The 2-D approach includes seafloor topography and structural constraints from seismic data. We estimate uncertainties from the regularized inversion and compare them to 1-D Bayesian inversion results. The probabilistic inversion for a layered subsurface treats the parameter values and the number of layers as unknown by applying reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. A non-diagonal data covariance matrix obtained from residual error analysis accounts for correlated errors. The resulting resistivity models show generally high resistivity values between 3 and 10 Ωm on average which can be partly attributed to depleted pore water salinities due to sea-level low stands in the past, and locally up to 30 Ωm which is likely caused by gas hydrates. At the base of the gas hydrate stability zone resistivities rise up to more than 100 Ωm which could be due to gas hydrate as well as a layer of free gas underneath. However, the deeper parts also show the largest model parameter uncertainties. Archie's Law is used to derive estimates of the gas hydrate saturation, which vary between 30 and 80% within the anomalous layers considering salinity and porosity profiles from a distant DSDP bore hole.

  16. High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko

    2016-10-01

    We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

  17. Brittleness estimation from seismic measurements in unconventional reservoirs: Application to the Barnett shale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Altimar, Roderick

    Brittleness is a key characteristic for effective reservoir stimulation and is mainly controlled by mineralogy in unconventional reservoirs. Unfortunately, there is no universally accepted means of predicting brittleness from measures made in wells or from surface seismic data. Brittleness indices (BI) are based on mineralogy, while brittleness average estimations are based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. I evaluate two of the more popular brittleness estimation techniques and apply them to a Barnett Shale seismic survey in order to estimate its geomechanical properties. Using specialized logging tools such as elemental capture tool, density, and P- and S wave sonic logs calibrated to previous core descriptions and laboratory measurements, I create a survey-specific BI template in Young's modulus versus Poisson's ratio or alternatively lambdarho versus murho space. I use this template to predict BI from elastic parameters computed from surface seismic data, providing a continuous estimate of BI estimate in the Barnett Shale survey. Extracting lambdarho-murho values from microseismic event locations, I compute brittleness index from the template and find that most microsemic events occur in the more brittle part of the reservoir. My template is validated through a suite of microseismic experiments that shows most events occurring in brittle zones, fewer events in the ductile shale, and fewer events still in the limestone fracture barriers. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is an estimate of the expected total production of oil and/or gas for the economic life of a well and is widely used in the evaluation of resource play reserves. In the literature it is possible to find several approaches for forecasting purposes and economic analyses. However, the extension to newer infill wells is somewhat challenging because production forecasts in unconventional reservoirs are a function of both completion effectiveness and reservoir quality. For shale gas reservoirs

  18. Hull Girder Fatigue Damage Estimations of a Large Container Vessel by Spectral Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingrid Marie Vincent; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with fatigue damage estimation from the analysis of full-scale stress measurements in the hull of a large container vessel (9,400 TEU) covering several months of operation. For onboard decision support and hull monitoring sys-tems, there is a need for a fast reliable method...... for esti-mation of fatigue damage in the ship hull. The objective of the study is to investigate whether the higher frequency contributions from the hydroelastic responses (springing and whipping) can satisfactory be included in the fatigue damage estimation by only a few parameters derived from the stress...

  19. SEISMIC SITE RESPONSE ESTIMATION IN THE NEAR SOURCE REGION OF THE 2009 L’AQUILA, ITALY, EARTHQUAKE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, E.; Azzara, R.; Bergamashi, F.; Bordoni, P.; Cara, F.; Cogliano, R.; Cultrera, G.; di Giulio, G.; Duval, A.; Fodarella, A.; Milana, G.; Pucillo, S.; Régnier, J.; Riccio, G.; Salichon, J.

    2009-12-01

    The 6th of April 2009, at 3:32 local time, a Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzo region (central Italy) causing more than 300 casualties. The epicenter of the earthquake was 95km NE of Rome and 10km from the center of the city of L’Aquila, the administrative capital of the Abruzzo region. This city has a population of about 70,000 and was severely damaged by the earthquake, the total cost of the buildings damage being estimated around 3 Bn €. Historical masonry buildings particularly suffered from the seismic shaking, but some reinforced concrete structures from more modern construction were also heavily damaged. To better estimate the seismic solicitation of these structures during the earthquake, we deployed temporary arrays in the near source region. Downtown L’Aquila, as well as a rural quarter composed of ancient dwelling-centers located western L’Aquila (Roio area), have been instrumented. The array set up downtown consisted of nearly 25 stations including velocimetric and accelerometric sensors. In the Roio area, 6 stations operated for almost one month. The data has been processed in order to study the spectral ratios of the horizontal component of ground motion at the soil site and at a reference site, as well as the spectral ratio of the horizontal and the vertical movement at a single recording site. Downtown L’Aquila is set on a Quaternary fluvial terrace (breccias with limestone boulders and clasts in a marly matrix), which forms the left bank of the Aterno River and slopes down in the southwest direction towards the Aterno River. The alluvial are lying on lacustrine sediments reaching their maximum thickness (about 250m) in the center of L’Aquila. After De Luca et al. (2005), these quaternary deposits seem to lead in an important amplification factor in the low frequency range (0.5-0.6 Hz). However, the level of amplification varies strongly from one point to the other in the center of the city. This new experimentation allows new and more

  20. Acoustic emission energy b-value for local damage evaluation in reinforced concrete structures subjected to seismic loadings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagasta, Francisco; Zitto, Miguel E.; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Benavent-Climent, Amadeo; Suarez, Elisabet; Gallego, Antolino

    2018-03-01

    A modification of the original b-value (Gutenberg-Richter parameter) is proposed to evaluate local damage of reinforced concrete structures subjected to dynamical loads via the acoustic emission (AE) method. The modification, shortly called energy b-value, is based on the use of the true energy of the AE signals instead of its peak amplitude, traditionally used for the calculation of b-value. The proposal is physically supported by the strong correlation between the plastic strain energy dissipated by the specimen and the true energy of the AE signals released during its deformation and cracking process, previously demonstrated by the authors in several publications. AE data analysis consisted in the use of guard sensors and the Continuous Wavelet Transform in order to separate primary and secondary emissions as much as possible according to particular frequency bands. The approach has been experimentally applied to the AE signals coming from a scaled reinforced concrete frame structure, which was subjected to sequential seismic loads of incremental acceleration peak by means of a 3 × 3 m2 shaking table. For this specimen two beam-column connections-one exterior and one interior-were instrumented with wide band low frequency sensors properly attached on the structure. Evolution of the energy b-value along the loading process accompanies the evolution of the severe damage at the critical regions of the structure (beam-column connections), thus making promising its use for structural health monitoring purposes.

  1. Estimating Cone and Seed Production and Monitoring Pest Damage in Southern Pine Seed Orchards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl W. Fatzinger; H. David Muse; Thomas Miller; Helen T. Bhattacharyya

    1988-01-01

    Field sampling procedures and computer programs are described for monitoring seed production and pest damage in southern pine seed orchards. The system estimates total orchard yields of female strobili and seeds, quantifies pest damage, determines times of year when losses occur, and produces life tables for female strobili. An example is included to illustrate the...

  2. Seismic attenuation in the African LLSVP estimated from PcS phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chujie; Grand, Stephen P.

    2018-05-01

    Seismic tomography models have revealed two broad regions in the lowermost mantle marked by ∼3% slower shear velocity than normal beneath the south central Pacific and southern Africa. These two regions are known as large-low-shear-velocity provinces (LLSVP). There is debate over whether the LLSVPs can be explained by purely thermal variations or whether they must be chemically distinct from normal mantle. Elastic properties alone, have been unable to distinguish the thermal from chemical interpretations. Anelastic structure, however, can help discriminate among models of the LLSVPs since intrinsic attenuation is more sensitive to temperature than to chemical variations. Here we estimate Qμ (the shear wave quality factor) in the African LLSVP using PcS waves generated from a Scotia Arc earthquake, recorded by broadband seismometers deployed in Southern Africa during the Kaapvaal experiment. The upward leg of the PcS waves sweeps from normal mantle into the African LLSVP across the array. We use the spectral ratio (SR) and instantaneous frequency matching (IFM) techniques to measure the differential attenuation (Δt*) between waves sampling the African LLSVP and the waves that sample normal lower mantle. Using both methods for estimating Δt* we find that PcS waves sampling the LLSVP are more attenuated than the waves that miss the LLSVP yielding a Δt* difference of more than 1 s. Using the Δt* measurements we estimate the average Qμ in the LLSVP to be about 110. Using a range of activation enthalpy (H*) estimates, we find an average temperature anomaly within the LLSVP ranging from +250 to +800 K. Our estimated temperature anomaly range overlaps previous isochemical geodynamic studies that explain the LLSVP as a purely thermal structure although the large uncertainties cannot rule out chemical variations as well.

  3. DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING SUBHASISH MOHANTY*, ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, JOHN N. RAJADAS, AND CLYDE...

  4. Estimating tectonic history through basin simulation-enhanced seismic inversion: Geoinformatics for sedimentary basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, K.; Tuncay, K.; Hubbard, K.; Comer, J.; Ortoleva, P.

    2004-01-01

    A data assimilation approach is demonstrated whereby seismic inversion is both automated and enhanced using a comprehensive numerical sedimentary basin simulator to study the physics and chemistry of sedimentary basin processes in response to geothermal gradient in much greater detail than previously attempted. The approach not only reduces costs by integrating the basin analysis and seismic inversion activities to understand the sedimentary basin evolution with respect to geodynamic parameters-but the technique also has the potential for serving as a geoinfomatics platform for understanding various physical and chemical processes operating at different scales within a sedimentary basin. Tectonic history has a first-order effect on the physical and chemical processes that govern the evolution of sedimentary basins. We demonstrate how such tectonic parameters may be estimated by minimizing the difference between observed seismic reflection data and synthetic ones constructed from the output of a reaction, transport, mechanical (RTM) basin model. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the geothermal gradient. As thermal history strongly affects the rate of RTM processes operating in a sedimentary basin, variations in geothermal gradient history alter the present-day fluid pressure, effective stress, porosity, fracture statistics and hydrocarbon distribution. All these properties, in turn, affect the mechanical wave velocity and sediment density profiles for a sedimentary basin. The present-day state of the sedimentary basin is imaged by reflection seismology data to a high degree of resolution, but it does not give any indication of the processes that contributed to the evolution of the basin or causes for heterogeneities within the basin that are being imaged. Using texture and fluid properties predicted by our Basin RTM simulator, we generate synthetic seismograms. Linear correlation using power spectra as an error measure and an efficient quadratic

  5. Spatial Variation of Diapycnal Diffusivity Estimated From Seismic Imaging of Internal Wave Field, Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Alex; White, N. J.; Caulfield, C. P.

    2017-12-01

    Bright reflections are observed within the upper 1,000 m of the water column along a seismic reflection profile that traverses the northern margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Independent hydrographic calibration demonstrates that these reflections are primarily caused by temperature changes associated with different water masses that are entrained into the Gulf along the Loop Current. The internal wave field is analyzed by automatically tracking 1,171 reflections, each of which is greater than 2 km in length. Power spectra of the horizontal gradient of isopycnal displacement, ϕξx, are calculated from these tracked reflections. At low horizontal wave numbers (kxcpm), ϕξx∝kx-0.2±0.6, in agreement with hydrographic observations of the internal wave field. The turbulent spectral subrange is rarely observed. Diapycnal diffusivity, K, is estimated from the observed internal wave spectral subrange of each tracked reflection using a fine-scale parametrization of turbulent mixing. Calculated values of K vary between 10-8 and 10-4 m2 s-1 with a mean value of K˜4×10-6 m2 s-1. The spatial distribution of turbulent mixing shows that K˜10-7 m2 s-1 away from the shelf edge in the upper 300 m where stratification is strong. Mixing is enhanced by up to 4 orders of magnitude adjacent to the shoaling bathymetry of the continental slope. This overall pattern matches that determined by analyzing nearby suites of CTD casts. However, the range of values recovered by spectral analysis of the seismic image is greater as a consequence of significantly better horizontal resolution.

  6. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  7. Gas hydrates:estimation of the gas potential, from reflection seismic data in the continental shelf of Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Santa Ana, H.; Ucha, N.; Gutierrez, L.; Veroslavsky, G.

    2004-01-01

    The uruguayan continental shelf shows geophysical indicators of gas hydrates in the Oriental del Plata, Pelotas and Punta del Este basin. The aim of this work is to present the potential presence of gas at the continental shelf in Uruguay and to evaluate the possibility of exploration of unconventional hydrocarbon plays. Analysis of the seismic surface based on regional and stratgigraphic information that proceeded from previous hydrocarbon exploration in the area have been used to estimatge resources of gas hydrates. Gas hydrates accumulation was mapped using characteristic reflectors and amplitude anomalies of seismic lines (BSR). Its quantity was estimated on this basis in about 86 TCF.

  8. Estimation of the Magnitude of Excavation Damaged Zone at KURT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Won Jin; Kim, Jin Sub; Lee, Changsoo; Cho, Heui Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In the EDZ, the permeability of the rock increases. The annular EDZ surrounding the tunnel may act as a continuous and high-permeable pathway for the groundwater flow, which accelerates the intrusion of groundwater into the repository and increases the release of radionuclide into the biosphere from the repository. Therefore an investigation on the magnitude of the EDZ has been important from the viewpoint of mechanical stability and radiological safety for a geological repository. In this study, two in-situ measurements were performed at the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) to investigate the magnitude of the EDZ. The magnitude of EDZ was estimated to be 0.6 to 1.8 m from the tunnel wall on the basis of the deformation modulus, and the value of deformation modulus in the EDZ is about 40% of those in undisturbed zone. The magnitude of EDZ can be estimated to be about 2 m from the viewpoint of permeability, and the permeabilities in the EDZ seem to be increased at up to 2 orders of magnitude compared with those in the intact rock. The magnitude of EDZ estimated based on the permeability is larger than that from the Goodman jack test.

  9. Estimating of seismic return periods in Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the site of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant and surroundings was made considering the different periods of seismic return and the probability of occurrence in distinct time intervals (50, 75, 100, 125, 150 years) starting with the distribution of first type of extreme values of Gumbel (G1), the value used for the assessment of lifetime of lump was 50 years, and the rest of the periods are used to evaluate temporary nuclear cemeteries, it is to say for reducing the radioactivity of burned fuel assemblies. The seismic data belongs to the seismicity catalog (1920-1982) elaborated around the site, which average magnitude was 5 in the Richter Scale and are considered as shallow and are located in the Continental crust of North American shelf, and are induced by the pressure of the cocos shelf, being 36 % of the seismic movements of intermediate value and two seismic movements of deep value. (Author)

  10. Estimation of reservoir fluid volumes through 4-D seismic analysis on Gullfaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veire, H.S.; Reymond, S.B.; Signer, C.; Tenneboe, P.O.; Soenneland, L.; Schlumberger, Geco-Prakla

    1998-12-31

    4-D seismic has the potential to monitor hydrocarbon movement in reservoirs during production, and could thereby supplement the predictions of reservoir parameters offered by the reservoir simulator. However 4-D seismic is often more band limited than the vertical resolution required in the reservoir model. As a consequence the seismic data holds a composite response from reservoir parameter changes during production so that the inversion becomes non-unique. A procedure where data from the reservoir model are integrated with seismic data will be presented. The potential of such a procedure is demonstrated through a case study from a recent 4-D survey over the Gullfaks field. 2 figs.

  11. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Frame buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatiha Cherifi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.

  12. How to eliminate non-damaging earthquakes from the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)-A comprehensive procedure with site-specific application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2009-01-01

    The results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses are frequently presented in terms of uniform hazard spectra or hazard curves with spectral accelerations as the output parameter. The calculation process is based on the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of specified acceleration levels without consideration of the damaging effects of the causative earthquakes. The same applies to the empirical attenuation equations for spectral accelerations used in PSHA models. This makes interpreting and using the results in engineering or risk applications difficult. Uniform hazard spectra and the associated hazard curves may contain a significant amount of contributions of weak, low-energy earthquakes not able to damage the seismically designed structures of nuclear power plants. For the development of realistic engineering designs and for realistic seismic probabilistic risk assessments (seismic PRA) it is necessary to remove the contribution of non-damaging earthquakes from the results of a PSHA. A detailed procedure for the elimination of non-damaging earthquakes based on the CAV (Cumulative Absolute Velocity)-filtering approach was developed and applied to the results of the large-scale PEGASOS probabilistic seismic hazard study for the site of the Goesgen nuclear power plant. The procedure considers the full scope of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability present in the PEGASOS study. It involves the development of a set of empirical correlations for CAV and the subsequent development of a composite distribution for the probability of exceedance of the damaging threshold of 0.16 gs. Additionally, a method was developed to measure the difference in the damaging effects of earthquakes of different strengths by the ratio of a power function of ARIAS-intensity or, in the ideal case, by the ratio of the square roots of the associated strong motion durations. The procedure was applied for the update of the Goesgen seismic PRA and for the confirmation of a

  13. Mine-induced seismicity at East-Rand proprietary mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milev, AM

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Mining results in seismic activity of varying intensity, from small micro seismic events to larger seismic events, often associated with significant seismic induced damages. This work deals with the understanding of the present seismicity...

  14. Multitemporal 3d Modelling for Cultural Heritage Emergency during Seismic Events: Damage Assesment of S. Agostino Church in Amatrice (ri)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiabrando, F.; Di Lolli, A.; Patrucco, G.; Spanò, A.; Sammartano, G.; Teppati Losè, L.

    2017-05-01

    One of the challenging purposes that must be undertaken by applied geomatics, is the need of monitoring by documenting continuously over time the evolution of urban spaces. Nowadays, this is a subject of great interest and study, mainly in case of sudden emergency events that implicate urban areas and specific historical buildings of our heritage. The newest Geomatics technique solutions must enable the demands of damage documentation, risk assessment, management and data sharing as efficiently as possible, in relation to the danger condition, to the accessibility constraints of areas and to the tight deadlines needs. In August 24th 2016, the first earthquake hit the area of central Italy with a magnitude of 6.0; since then, the earth never stop shaking in a wide area in the middle of Italy. On 26th and 30th of October, two other big seismic events were recorded (magnitude 5.9 and 6.5) and the already damaged built heritage were struck again. Since the beginning of the emergency all the available resources (human and material) were deployed and the world of researchers is trying to furnish an effective contribute as well. Politecnico di Torino, in coordination with the national institutions, is deploying people, expertise and resources. The geomatics research group and the connected Disaster Recovery team (DIRECT - http://areeweb.polito.it/direct/) is part of this process and is working in deep contact and collaboration with the Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) group of the Italian Firefighter. Starting from the first earthquake the late medieval religious complex of S. Agostino has been carefully monitored and detected, using a multi-perspective oblique imagery strategy with the aim to achieve 3D aerial and terrestrial models, in a multi-temporal perspective concerning three different time situation.

  15. MULTITEMPORAL 3D MODELLING FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE EMERGENCY DURING SEISMIC EVENTS: DAMAGE ASSESMENT OF S. AGOSTINO CHURCH IN AMATRICE (RI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Chiabrando

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the challenging purposes that must be undertaken by applied geomatics, is the need of monitoring by documenting continuously over time the evolution of urban spaces. Nowadays, this is a subject of great interest and study, mainly in case of sudden emergency events that implicate urban areas and specific historical buildings of our heritage. The newest Geomatics technique solutions must enable the demands of damage documentation, risk assessment, management and data sharing as efficiently as possible, in relation to the danger condition, to the accessibility constraints of areas and to the tight deadlines needs. In August 24th 2016, the first earthquake hit the area of central Italy with a magnitude of 6.0; since then, the earth never stop shaking in a wide area in the middle of Italy. On 26th and 30th of October, two other big seismic events were recorded (magnitude 5.9 and 6.5 and the already damaged built heritage were struck again. Since the beginning of the emergency all the available resources (human and material were deployed and the world of researchers is trying to furnish an effective contribute as well. Politecnico di Torino, in coordination with the national institutions, is deploying people, expertise and resources. The geomatics research group and the connected Disaster Recovery team (DIRECT - http://areeweb.polito.it/direct/ is part of this process and is working in deep contact and collaboration with the Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS group of the Italian Firefighter. Starting from the first earthquake the late medieval religious complex of S. Agostino has been carefully monitored and detected, using a multi-perspective oblique imagery strategy with the aim to achieve 3D aerial and terrestrial models, in a multi-temporal perspective concerning three different time situation.

  16. LANL seismic screening method for existing buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickson, S.L.; Feller, K.C.; Fritz de la Orta, G.O.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Seismic Screening Method is to provide a comprehensive, rational, and inexpensive method for evaluating the relative seismic integrity of a large building inventory using substantial life-safety as the minimum goal. The substantial life-safety goal is deemed to be satisfied if the extent of structural damage or nonstructural component damage does not pose a significant risk to human life. The screening is limited to Performance Category (PC) -0, -1, and -2 buildings and structures. Because of their higher performance objectives, PC-3 and PC-4 buildings automatically fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method and will be subject to a more detailed seismic analysis. The Laboratory has also designated that PC-0, PC-1, and PC-2 unreinforced masonry bearing wall and masonry infill shear wall buildings fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method because of their historically poor seismic performance or complex behavior. These building types are also recommended for a more detailed seismic analysis. The results of the LANL Seismic Screening Method are expressed in terms of separate scores for potential configuration or physical hazards (Phase One) and calculated capacity/demand ratios (Phase Two). This two-phase method allows the user to quickly identify buildings that have adequate seismic characteristics and structural capacity and screen them out from further evaluation. The resulting scores also provide a ranking of those buildings found to be inadequate. Thus, buildings not passing the screening can be rationally prioritized for further evaluation. For the purpose of complying with Executive Order 12941, the buildings failing the LANL Seismic Screening Method are deemed to have seismic deficiencies, and cost estimates for mitigation must be prepared. Mitigation techniques and cost-estimate guidelines are not included in the LANL Seismic Screening Method

  17. STUDY ON THE BLASTING SEISMIC DAMAGE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY FOR SMALL SPACING SOFT ROCK TUNNEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Chengzhong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With a lot construction of transportation infrastructure in Chinese mountainous area, because of its unique advantages such as less land occupation, beautiful appearance and convenient route planning, small spacing tunnels are widely used. The shallow buried tunnel with small spacing, the blasting excavation will lead to tunnel surrounding rock especially in the middle rock wall damage and reduce the self-bearing capacity of surrounding rock. Through detecting and analyzing by the geological radar of the excavated red layer soft rock tunnel surrounding rock found that the middle rock wall loose circle thickness of the tunnel reaches to 1.8 m, the vault and sidewall loose circle thickness is about 1.2 m. Through selection of rational strengthening measures and blasting design scheme to improve drilling parameters and methods, as far as possible to protect the integrity and self-bearing capacity of the surrounding rock, the deformation and vibration of the tunnel would be controlled in reasonable limits and ensure the safety of tunnel construction.

  18. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  19. Estimate of the damage in organs induced by neutrons in three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benites R, J. L.; Vega C, H. R.; Uribe, M. del R.

    2014-08-01

    By means of Monte Carlo methods was considered the damage in the organs, induced by neutrons, of patients with cancer that receive treatment in modality of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) with lineal accelerator Varian Ix. The objective of this work was to estimate the damage probability in radiotherapy patients, starting from the effective dose by neutrons in the organs and tissues out of the treatment region. For that a three-dimensional mannequin of equivalent tissue of 30 x 100 x 30 cm 3 was modeled and spherical cells were distributed to estimate the Kerma in equivalent tissue and the absorbed dose by neutrons. With the absorbed dose the effective dose was calculated using the weighting factors for the organ type and radiation type. With the effective dose and the damage factors, considered in the ICRP 103, was considered the probability of damage induction in organs. (Author)

  20. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  1. Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

    2016-04-01

    is seismic moment density (Mo/m3) and V stim is stimulated rock volume (m3). Mopossible = D ∗ V stim(1) We applied this conceptual model to real microseismic data set from Basel EGS project where several induced seismicity with large magnitude occurred and brought constructive damage. Using the hypocenter location determined by the researcher of Tohoku Univ., Japan and moment magnitude estimated from Geothermal Explorers Ltd., operating company, we were able to estimate reasonable seismic moment density meaning that one representative parameter exists and can characterize seismic activity at Basel at each time step. With stimulated rock volume which was also inferred from microseismic information, we estimated possible seismic moment and assess the difference with observed value. Possible seismic moment significantly increased after shut-in when the seismic cloud (stimulated zone) mostly progressed, resulting that the difference with the observed cumulative seismic moment automatically became larger. This suggests that there is moderate seismic moment which will be released in near future. In next few hours, the largest event actually occurred. Therefore, our proposed model was successfully able to forecast occurrence of the large events. Furthermore, best forecast of maximum magnitude was Mw 3 level and the largest event was Mw 3.41, showing reasonable performance in terms of quantitative forecast in magnitude. Our attempt to assess the seismic activity from microseismic information was successful and it also suggested magnitude release can be correlate with the expansion of seismic cloud as the definition of possible seismic moment model indicates. This relationship has been observed in microseismic observational study and several previous study also suggested their correlation with stress released rock volume. Our model showed harmonic results with these studies and provide practical method having clear physical meaning to assess the seismic activity in real

  2. Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

  3. Core damage frequency estimation using accident sequence precursor data: 1990-1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.

    1998-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) ongoing Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to assess the potential for severe core damage (henceforth referred to simply as core damage) based on operating events. The types of operating events considered include accident sequence initiators, safety equipment failures, and degradation of plant conditions that could increase the probability that various postulated accident sequences occur. Such operating events potentially reduce the margin of safety available for prevention of core damage an thus can be considered as precursors to core damage. The current process for identifying, analyzing, and documenting ASP events is described in detail in Vanden Heuval et al. The significance of a Licensee Event Report (LER) event (or events) is measured by means of the conditional probability that the event leads to core damage, the so-called conditional core damage probability or, simply, CCDP. When the first ASP study results were published in 1982, it covered the period 1969--1979. In addition to identification and ranking of precursors, the original study attempted to estimate core damage frequency (CDF) based on the precursor events. The purpose of this paper is to compare the average annual CDF estimates calculated using the CCDP sum, Cooke-Goossens, Bier, and Abramson estimators for various reactor classes using the combined ASP data for the four years, 1990--1993. An important outcome of this comparison is an answer to the persistent question regarding the degree and effect of the positive bias of the CCDP sum method in practice. Note that this paper only compares the estimators with each other. Because the true average CDF is unknown, the estimation error is also unknown. Therefore, any observations or characterizations of bias are based on purely theoretical considerations

  4. Fatigue Damage Estimation and Data-based Control for Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus; Wisniewski, Rafal; Soltani, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    based on hysteresis operators, which can be used in control loops. The authors propose a data-based model predictive control (MPC) strategy that incorporates an online fatigue estimation method through the objective function, where the ultimate goal in mind is to reduce the fatigue damage of the wind......The focus of this work is on fatigue estimation and data-based controller design for wind turbines. The main purpose is to include a model of the fatigue damage of the wind turbine components in the controller design and synthesis process. This study addresses an online fatigue estimation method...... turbine components. The outcome is an adaptive or self-tuning MPC strategy for wind turbine fatigue damage reduction, which relies on parameter identification on previous measurement data. The results of the proposed strategy are compared with a baseline model predictive controller....

  5. Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

    Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

  6. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J.H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  7. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  8. Applicability of Linear Analysis in Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Building Damage to Reinforced-Concrete Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    70 10 Figure 27: Time history for Imperial Valley 10/15/79 23:16 Chihuahua earthquake ................................. 70 Figure 28... Chihuahua earthquake -0.003 g -0.002 g -0.001 g 0.000 g 0.001 g 0.002 g 0.003 g 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Time (Seconds) San Fernando 02/09/71 14:00 LA...Hollywood Stor Lot -0.300 g -0.200 g -0.100 g 0.000 g 0.100 g 0.200 g 0.300 g 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time (Seconds) Imperial Valley 10/15/79 23:16 Chihuahua 71

  9. A method for estimating the local area economic damages of Superfund waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    National Priority List (NPL) sites, or more commonly called Superfund sites, are hazardous waste sites (HWS) deemed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose the greatest risks to human health or welfare or to the environment. HWS are placed and ranked for cleanup on the NPL based on a score derived from the Hazard Ranking System (HRS), which is a scientific assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by HWS. A concern of the HRS is that the rank of sites is not based on benefit-cost analysis. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a method for estimating the local area economic damages associated with Superfund waste sites. Secondarily, the model is used to derive county-level damage estimates for use in ranking the county level damages from Superfund sites. The conceptual model used to describe the damages associated with Superfund sites is a household-firm location decision model. In this model assumes that households and firms make their location choice based on the local level of wages, rents and amenities. The model was empirically implemented using 1980 census microdata on households and workers in 253 counties across the US. The household sample includes data on the value and structural characteristics of homes. The worker sample includes the annual earnings of workers and a vector worker attributes. The microdata was combined with county level amenity data, including the number of Superfund sites. The hedonic pricing technique was used to estimate the effect of Superfund sites on average annual wages per household and on monthly expenditures on housing. The results show that Superfund sites impose statistically significant damages on households. The annual county damages from Superfund sites for a sample of 151 counties was over 14 billion dollars. The ranking of counties using the damage estimates is correlated with the rank of counties using the HRS

  10. High Resolution/High Fidelity Seismic Imaging and Parameter Estimation for Geological Structure and Material Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ru-Shan Wu; Xiao-Bi Xie

    2008-06-08

    Our proposed work on high resolution/high fidelity seismic imaging focused on three general areas: (1) development of new, more efficient, wave-equation-based propagators and imaging conditions, (2) developments towards amplitude-preserving imaging in the local angle domain, in particular, imaging methods that allow us to estimate the reflection as a function of angle at a layer boundary, and (3) studies of wave inversion for local parameter estimation. In this report we summarize the results and progress we made during the project period. The report is divided into three parts, totaling 10 chapters. The first part is on resolution analysis and its relation to directional illumination analysis. The second part, which is composed of 6 chapters, is on the main theme of our work, the true-reflection imaging. True-reflection imaging is an advanced imaging technology which aims at keeping the image amplitude proportional to the reflection strength of the local reflectors or to obtain the reflection coefficient as function of reflection-angle. There are many factors which may influence the image amplitude, such as geometrical spreading, transmission loss, path absorption, acquisition aperture effect, etc. However, we can group these into two categories: one is the propagator effect (geometric spreading, path losses); the other is the acquisition-aperture effect. We have made significant progress in both categories. We studied the effects of different terms in the true-amplitude one-way propagators, especially the terms including lateral velocity variation of the medium. We also demonstrate the improvements by optimizing the expansion coefficients in different terms. Our research also includes directional illumination analysis for both the one-way propagators and full-wave propagators. We developed the fast acquisition-aperture correction method in the local angle-domain, which is an important element in the true-reflection imaging. Other developments include the super

  11. Fe model predicting the increase in seismic resistance induced by the progressive FRP strengthening on already damaged masonry arches subjected to settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, G.; Milani, G.

    2017-11-01

    In seismic regions, the retrofitting of masonry structures subjected to differential foundation settlements is of the upmost importance. This practice however poses significant challenges, most notably in the consideration of historical monuments where the integrity of the original structure must be weighted alongside public safety. Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs), when appropriately applied, provide the potential to balance this duality of heritage preservation and modern safety. Using an advanced FE point of view, this work studies the seismic response of a progressive reinforcement strategy aimed at strengthening and controlling the failure mechanism for masonry arches that exist in a damaged state induced through a differential abutment settlement. A heterogeneous FE approach of a semi-circular block and mortar arch on continuously spreading supports is examined. In this model hinge formation is obtained by assigning a damage plasticity behavior to the mortar joints. Strategically placed FRPs, designed through the utilization of the Italian CNR recommendations for externally bonded FRP systems, are applied through the Abaqus birth and death approach and introduced to the spreading support model after settlement. Finally, the structural behavior of the reinforced and unreinforced models are examined for a seismic response.

  12. Reducing uncertainty of Monte Carlo estimated fatigue damage in offshore wind turbines using FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Horn, Jan-Tore; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue...

  13. Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 2. Dynamic Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions

  14. Estimation of regional air-quality damages from Marcellus Shale natural gas extraction in Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litovitz, Aviva; Abramzon, Shmuel; Curtright, Aimee; Samaras, Constantine; Burger, Nicholas

    2013-01-01

    This letter provides a first-order estimate of conventional air pollutant emissions, and the monetary value of the associated environmental and health damages, from the extraction of unconventional shale gas in Pennsylvania. Region-wide estimated damages ranged from $7.2 to $32 million dollars for 2011. The emissions from Pennsylvania shale gas extraction represented only a few per cent of total statewide emissions, and the resulting statewide damages were less than those estimated for each of the state’s largest coal-based power plants. On the other hand, in counties where activities are concentrated, NO x emissions from all shale gas activities were 20–40 times higher than allowable for a single minor source, despite the fact that individual new gas industry facilities generally fall below the major source threshold for NO x . Most emissions are related to ongoing activities, i.e., gas production and compression, which can be expected to persist beyond initial development and which are largely unrelated to the unconventional nature of the resource. Regulatory agencies and the shale gas industry, in developing regulations and best practices, should consider air emissions from these long-term activities, especially if development occurs in more populated areas of the state where per-ton emissions damages are significantly higher. (letter)

  15. Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1. Benchmark Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    A selection of the potential impacts of climate change - on agriculture, forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energy consumption, and water resources - are estimated and valued in monetary terms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internally consistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of the uncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following the meta-analytical methods described here. A 1C increase in the global mean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect on the OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on other countries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however, include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimates depend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a 1C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standard deviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be a negative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, world impact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%)

  16. Seismic damage in the electrical substations of the Colima state; Dano sismico en las subestaciones electricas del estado de Colima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mena H, Ulises; Lopez L, Alberto; Guerrero F, Vicente A. [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2004-07-01

    On the 21 of January of 2003, at 20:06:36 hrs (Mexico center time) an earthquake occurred at the Pacific coast with a magnitude of 7.6 degrees in the Richter scale, whose epicenter was located near the state of Colima and it was felt in a large extent of the Mexican Republic. The earthquake caused numerous material damages in the structures (houses, churches, offices, etc) and vital lines, mainly in the infrastructure of the electrical sector of the region, leaving without electrical energy a large part of the nearby populations and some colonies of distant zones such as in Mexico City. The cause of the interruption of the electrical energy was due to the collapse of some of the equipment of 400 and 230 KV of the electrical transmission substations, among which are Manzanillo II and Colima II. With the experience acquired in the earthquake of October 9, 1995 in Manzanillo, in which also the facilities and equipment of the electrical substations were affected considerably, and as a part of the infrastructure project on the analysis of seismic risk of vital lines that is being developed at this moment at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE), it was decided to inspect the electrical substations of the zone, where the greater damages in the facilities and equipment were reported, to analyze and to determine the main causes of their failure. [Spanish] El 21 de enero de 2003, a las 20:06:36 hrs (hora del centro de Mexico) ocurrio un sismo en la costa del Pacifico con una magnitud de 7.6 grados en escala Richter, cuyo epicentro se localizo cerca del estado de Colima y se percibio en gran parte de la republica mexicana. El sismo causo cuantiosos danos materiales en las estructuras (viviendas, iglesias, oficinas, etc) y lineas vitales, principalmente en la infraestructura del sector electrico de la region, dejando sin energia electrica a gran parte de las poblaciones cercanas y algunas colonias de zonas lejanas como es la ciudad de Mexico. La causa del corte de

  17. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

  18. A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude

  19. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  20. Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

  1. Estimation of Dry Fracture Weakness, Porosity, and Fluid Modulus Using Observable Seismic Reflection Data in a Gas-Bearing Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huaizhen; Zhang, Guangzhi

    2017-05-01

    Fracture detection and fluid identification are important tasks for a fractured reservoir characterization. Our goal is to demonstrate a direct approach to utilize azimuthal seismic data to estimate fluid bulk modulus, porosity, and dry fracture weaknesses, which decreases the uncertainty of fluid identification. Combining Gassmann's (Vier. der Natur. Gesellschaft Zürich 96:1-23, 1951) equations and linear-slip model, we first establish new simplified expressions of stiffness parameters for a gas-bearing saturated fractured rock with low porosity and small fracture density, and then we derive a novel PP-wave reflection coefficient in terms of dry background rock properties (P-wave and S-wave moduli, and density), fracture (dry fracture weaknesses), porosity, and fluid (fluid bulk modulus). A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo nonlinear inversion method is proposed to estimate fluid bulk modulus, porosity, and fracture weaknesses directly from azimuthal seismic data. The inversion method yields reasonable estimates in the case of synthetic data containing a moderate noise and stable results on real data.

  2. Thermal load non-uniformity estimation for superheater tube bundle damage evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naď Martin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Industrial boiler damage is a common phenomenon encountered in boiler operation which usually lasts several decades. Since boiler shutdown may be required because of localized failures, it is crucial to predict the most vulnerable parts. If damage occurs, it is necessary to perform root cause analysis and devise corrective measures (repairs, design modifications, etc.. Boiler tube bundles, such as those in superheaters, preheaters and reheaters, are the most exposed and often the most damaged boiler parts. Both short-term and long-term overheating are common causes of tube failures. In these cases, the design temperatures are exceeded, which often results in decrease of remaining creep life. Advanced models for damage evaluation require temperature history, which is available only in rare cases when it has been measured and recorded for the whole service life. However, in most cases it is necessary to estimate the temperature history from available operation history data (inlet and outlet pressures and temperatures etc.. The task may be very challenging because of the combination of complex flow behaviour in the flue gas domain and heat transfer phenomena. This paper focuses on estimating thermal load non-uniformity on superheater tubes via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD simulation of flue gas flow including heat transfer within the domain consisting of a furnace and a part of the first stage of the boiler.

  3. A story about estimation of a random field of boulders from incomplete seismic measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2005-01-01

    deposits along the tunnel line. By use of this important distribution information and of the observed homogeneity of the seismic point source field together with the physical properties of diffraction it became possible to make the wanted prediction. During the excavation the found boulders were counted......This paper reports on the statistical interpretation of seismic diffraction measurements of boulder locations. The measurements are made in a corridor along the planned tunnel line for the later realized bored tunnel through the till deposits under the East Channel of the Great Belt in Denmark...... graphical registrations on seismograms do not make a proper interpretation possible without detailed knowledge about the joint distribution of the primary dimensions of the boulders. Therefore separate measurements were made of the dimensions of boulders deposited visibly on the cliff beaches of the Great...

  4. Spatial Variation of Diapycnal Diffusivity Estimated From Seismic Imaging of Internal Wave Field, Gulf of Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Dickinson, Nicholas; White, Nicholas Jeremiah; Caulfield, Colm-cille Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bright reflections are observed within the upper 1000~m of the water column along a seismic reflection profile that traverses the northern margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Independent hydrographic calibration demonstrates that these reflections are primarily caused by temperature changes associated with different water masses that are entrained into the Gulf along the Loop Current. The internal wave field is analyzed by automatically tracking 1171 reflections, each of which is greater th...

  5. Estimating the uncertainty of damage costs of pollution: A simple transparent method and typical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spadaro, Joseph V.; Rabl, Ari

    2008-01-01

    Whereas the uncertainty of environmental impacts and damage costs is usually estimated by means of a Monte Carlo calculation, this paper shows that most (and in many cases all) of the uncertainty calculation involves products and/or sums of products and can be accomplished with an analytic solution which is simple and transparent. We present our own assessment of the component uncertainties and calculate the total uncertainty for the impacts and damage costs of the classical air pollutants; results for a Monte Carlo calculation for the dispersion part are also shown. The distribution of the damage costs is approximately lognormal and can be characterized in terms of geometric mean μ g and geometric standard deviation σ g , implying that the confidence interval is multiplicative. We find that for the classical air pollutants σ g is approximately 3 and the 68% confidence interval is [μ g / σ g , μ g σ g ]. Because the lognormal distribution is highly skewed for large σ g , the median is significantly smaller than the mean. We also consider the case where several lognormally distributed damage costs are added, for example to obtain the total damage cost due to all the air pollutants emitted by a power plant, and we find that the relative error of the sum can be significantly smaller than the relative errors of the summands. Even though the distribution for such sums is not exactly lognormal, we present a simple lognormal approximation that is quite adequate for most applications

  6. Toward an estimation of the relationship between cyclonic structures and damages at the ground in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Porcu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Cyclonic systems dominate European and Mediterranean meteorology throughout the year and often induce severe weather in terms of heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation with related phenomena such as strong winds and lightning. Surface cyclonic structures are often related to well defined precipitation patterns with different scales, duration and intensity. Cyclones confined in the upper troposphere, usually referred to as cut off low, may induce instability at lower levels and the development of convective precipitation.

    In this work the occurrence of cyclonic events (discriminated between surface ones and cut-off lows is analyzed and matched with an economic losses database to highlight a relation between the atmospheric structures and the impact on the social environment in terms of casualties and material damages. The study focus on the continental Europe and, based on the ERA-40 reanalysis, two databases of surface cyclones and cut-off lows have been constructed by means of automatic pattern recognition algorithms. The impact on the local communities is estimated from an insurance company record, which provides the location, date and type of the events, as well as related losses in terms of damages and casualties. Results show the relatively high impact of cyclonic structures on human life in Europe: most of the weather induced damages occur close to a cyclonic center, especially during warm months. Damages and human losses are more frequent from late summer to January, and precipitation is the most relevant meteorological damaging feature throughout the year.

  7. Induced Seismicity Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S. R.; Jarpe, S.; Harben, P.

    2014-12-01

    There are many seismological aspects associated with monitoring of permanent storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in geologic formations. Many of these include monitoring underground gas migration through detailed tomographic studies of rock properties, integrity of the cap rock and micro seismicity with time. These types of studies require expensive deployments of surface and borehole sensors in the vicinity of the CO2 injection wells. Another problem that may exist in CO2 sequestration fields is the potential for damaging induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into the geologic reservoir. Seismic hazard monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields requires a seismic network over a spatially larger region possibly having stations in remote settings. Expensive observatory-grade seismic systems are not necessary for seismic hazard deployments or small-scale tomographic studies. Hazard monitoring requires accurate location of induced seismicity to magnitude levels only slightly less than that which can be felt at the surface (e.g. magnitude 1), and the frequencies of interest for tomographic analysis are ~1 Hz and greater. We have developed a seismo/acoustic smart sensor system that can achieve the goals necessary for induced seismicity monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields. The unit is inexpensive, lightweight, easy to deploy, can operate remotely under harsh conditions and features 9 channels of recording (currently 3C 4.5 Hz geophone, MEMS accelerometer and microphone). An on-board processor allows for satellite transmission of parameter data to a processing center. Continuous or event-detected data is kept on two removable flash SD cards of up to 64+ Gbytes each. If available, data can be transmitted via cell phone modem or picked up via site visits. Low-power consumption allows for autonomous operation using only a 10 watt solar panel and a gel-cell battery. The system has been successfully tested for long-term (> 6 months) remote operations over a wide range

  8. Group constant preparation for the estimate of neutron induced damage in structural materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panini, G.C.

    1996-01-01

    Neutron heating (kerma), displacement per atom cross sections (DPA), gas and γ-ray production are important parameters for the estimate of the damage produced by neutron induced nuclear reactions in the structural materials. The NJOY System for Nuclear Data Processing has been extensively used in order to compute the above quantities; here the theory, the algorithms and the connected problems are described. (author). 6 refs, 3 tabs

  9. Estimation of parameters of finite seismic source model for selected event of West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm-methodology improvement and data extension

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 4 (2015), s. 935-947 ISSN 1383-4649 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

  10. Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passos de Figueiredo, Leandro, E-mail: leandrop.fgr@gmail.com [Physics Department, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis (Brazil); Grana, Dario [Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie (United States); Santos, Marcio; Figueiredo, Wagner [Physics Department, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis (Brazil); Roisenberg, Mauro [Informatic and Statistics Department, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis (Brazil); Schwedersky Neto, Guenther [Petrobras Research Center, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2017-05-01

    We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well data multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.

  11. Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Atomics International's Nuclear Materials Development Facility in the Santa Susana site, California, as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.

    1981-09-01

    The potential mass of airborne releases of plutonium (source term) that could result from wind and seismic damage is estimated for the Atomics International Company's Nuclear Materials Development Facility (NMDF) at the Santa Susana site in California. The postulated source terms will be useful as the basis for estimating the potential dose to the maximum exposed individual by inhalation and to the total population living within a prescribed radius of the site. The respirable fraction of airborne particles is thus the principal concern. The estimated source terms are based on the damage ratio, and the potential airborne releases if all enclosures suffer particular levels of damage. In an attempt to provide a realistic range of potential source terms that include most of the normal processing conditions, a best estimate bounded by upper and lower limits is provided. The range of source terms is calculated by combining a high best estimate and a low damage ratio, based on a fraction of enclosures suffering crush or perforation, with the airborne release from enclosures based upon an upper limit, average, and lower limit inventory of dispersible materials at risk. Two throughput levels are considered. The factors used to evaluate the fractional airborne release of materials and the exchange rates between enclosed and exterior atmospheres are discussed. The postulated damage and source terms are discussed for wind and earthquake hazard scenarios in order of their increasing severity

  12. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  13. Potential Geophysical Field Transformations and Combined 3D Modelling for Estimation the Seismic Site Effects on Example of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppelbaum, Lev; Meirova, Tatiana

    2015-04-01

    It is well-known that the local seismic site effects may have a significant contribution to the intensity of damage and destruction (e.g., Hough et al., 1990; Regnier et al., 2000; Bonnefoy-Claudet et al., 2006; Haase et al., 2010). The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, usually are derived from seismic velocities. At the same time, thickness of sediments may be determined (or defined) on the basis of 3D combined gravity-magnetic modeling joined with available geological materials, seismic data and borehole section examination. Final result of such investigation is a 3D physical-geological model (PGM) reflecting main geological peculiarities of the area under study. Such a combined study needs in application of a reliable 3D mathematical algorithm of computation together with advanced methodology of 3D modeling. For this analysis the developed GSFC software was selected. The GSFC (Geological Space Field Calculation) program was developed for solving a direct 3-D gravity and magnetic prospecting problem under complex geological conditions (Khesin et al., 1996; Eppelbaum and Khesin, 2004). This program has been designed for computing the field of Δg (Bouguer, free-air or observed value anomalies), ΔZ, ΔX, ΔY , ΔT , as well as second derivatives of the gravitational potential under conditions of rugged relief and inclined magnetization. The geological space can be approximated by (1) three-dimensional, (2) semi-infinite bodies and (3) those infinite along the strike closed, L.H. non-closed, R.H. on-closed and open). Geological bodies are approximated by horizontal polygonal prisms. The program has the following main advantages (besides abovementioned ones): (1) Simultaneous computing of gravity and magnetic fields; (2) Description of the terrain relief by irregularly placed characteristic points; (3) Computation of the effect of the earth-air boundary by the method of selection directly in the process of interpretation; (4

  14. Estimation of health damage due to emission of air pollutants by cars: the canyon effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spadaro, J.V. [Ecole des Mines, Centre d' Energetique, Paris, 75 (France); Rabl, A.

    1999-07-01

    Since current epidemiological evidence suggests that air pollution has harmful effects even at typical ambient concentrations and the dispersion is significant over hundreds to thousands of km, the estimation of total health damage involves consideration of local and regional effects. In recent years, several estimates have been published of health damage due to air pollution from cars, in particular by Delucchi et al of UC Davis and by the ExternE Project of the European Commission. To capture the geographic extent of pollutant dispersion, local and regional models have been used in combination. The present paper addresses a potentially significant contribution of the total damage, not yet taken into account in these studies: the increased concentration of pollutants inside urban street canyons. This canyon effect is appreciable only for primary pollutants, the time constants for the formation of secondary pollutants being long compared to the residence time in the canyon. We assumed linearity of incremental health impact with incremental concentration, in view of the lack of epidemiological evidence for no-effect thresholds or significant deviations from linearity at typical ambient concentrations; therefore, only long term average concentrations matter. We use the FLUENT software to model the dispersion inside a street canyon for a wide range of rectangular geometries and wind velocities. Our results suggest that the canyon effect is of marginal significance for total damages, the contribution of the canyon effect being roughly 10 to 20% of the total. The relative importance of the canyon effect is, of course, highly variable with local conditions; it could be much smaller but it is unlikely to add more than 100% to the flat terrain estimate. (Author)

  15. Estimating the composition of gas hydrate using 3D seismic data from Penghu Canyon, offshore Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sourav Kumar Sahoo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct measurements of gas composition by drilling at a few hundred meters below seafloor can be costly, and a remote sensing method may be preferable. The hydrate occurrence is seismically shown by a bottom-simulating reflection (BSR which is generally indicative of the base of the hydrate stability zone. With a good temperature profile from the seafloor to the depth of the BSR, a near-correct hydrate phase diagram can be calculated, which can be directly related to the hydrate composition. However, in the areas with high topographic anomalies of seafloor, the temperature profile is usually poorly defined, with scattered data. Here we used a remote method to reduce such scattering. We derived gas composition of hydrate in stability zone and reduced the scattering by considering depth-dependent geothermal conductivity and topographic corrections. Using 3D seismic data at the Penghu canyon, offshore SW Taiwan, we corrected for topographic focusing through 3D numerical thermal modeling. A temperature profile was fitted with a depth-dependent geothermal gradient, considering the increasing thermal conductivity with depth. Using a pore-water salinity of 2%, we constructed a gas hydrate phase model composed of 99% methane and 1% ethane to derive a temperature depth profile consistent with the seafloor temperature from in-situ measurements, and geochemical analyses of the pore fluids. The high methane content suggests predominantly biogenic source. The derived regional geothermal gradient is 40°C km-1. This method can be applied to other comparable marine environment to better constrain the composition of gas hydrate from BSR in a seismic data, in absence of direct sampling.

  16. Estimation of background noise level on seismic station using statistical analysis for improved analysis accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, S. M.; Hahm, I.

    2015-12-01

    We evaluated the background noise level of seismic stations in order to collect the observation data of high quality and produce accurate seismic information. Determining of the background noise level was used PSD (Power Spectral Density) method by McNamara and Buland (2004) in this study. This method that used long-term data is influenced by not only innate electronic noise of sensor and a pulse wave resulting from stabilizing but also missing data and controlled by the specified frequency which is affected by the irregular signals without site characteristics. It is hard and inefficient to implement process that filters out the abnormal signal within the automated system. To solve these problems, we devised a method for extracting the data which normally distributed with 90 to 99% confidence intervals at each period. The availability of the method was verified using 62-seismic stations with broadband and short-period sensors operated by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). Evaluation standards were NHNM (New High Noise Model) and NLNM (New Low Noise Model) published by the USGS (United States Geological Survey). It was designed based on the western United States. However, Korean Peninsula surrounded by the ocean on three sides has a complicated geological structure and a high population density. So, we re-designed an appropriate model in Korean peninsula by statistically combined result. The important feature is that secondary-microseism peak appeared at a higher frequency band. Acknowledgements: This research was carried out as a part of "Research for the Meteorological and Earthquake Observation Technology and Its Application" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

  17. Estimation of co-seismic stress change of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun Dongsheng; Wang Hongcai; Ma Yinsheng; Zhou Chunjing [Key laboratory of Neotectonic movement and Geohazard, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100081 (China) and Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081 (China)

    2012-09-26

    In-situ stress change near the fault before and after a great earthquake is a key issue in the geosciences field. In this work, based on the 2008 Great Wenchuan earthquake fault slip dislocation model, the co-seismic stress tensor change due to the Wenchuan earthquake and the distribution functions around the Longmen Shan fault are given. Our calculated results are almost consistent with the before and after great Wenchuan earthquake in-situ measuring results. The quantitative assessment results provide a reference for the study of the mechanism of earthquakes.

  18. Fretting fatigue life estimation using fatigue damage gradient correction factor in various contact configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Dong Hyeon; Cho, Sung-San [Hongik University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    A fretting fatigue life estimation method that takes into account the stress gradient effect was developed by the authors [Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 28 (2014) 2153-2159]. In the developed method, fatigue damage value at the cracking location is corrected with fatigue damage gradient and the corrected value is compared directly with the plain fatigue data for life estimation. In other words, the correction factor is the ratio of plain fatigue damage to fretting fatigue damage at the same life and a function of fatigue damage gradient. Since reliability of the method was verified only for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration in the previous study, the present study extends application of the method to flat-on-flat contact configurations by developing the correction factor for both the contact configuration. Fretting fatigue experiments were conducted to obtain fatigue life data for various fretting pads. Finite element analyses were conducted to evaluate the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) fatigue damage parameter in the cracking region. It is revealed that the SWT parameter in fat-on-flat contact configuration decreases exponentially away from the surface as in cylinder-on-flat contact configuration, and thus the SWT gradient at the surface can be evaluated reliably. Moreover, it is found that decrease in the SWT parameter around the cracking location can be expressed by piecewise exponential curves. If the gradient of SWT at the surface is used as a representative value of SWT gradient, it is impossible to establish functional relationship between the SWT gradient and the correction factor for both the contact configurations although it was possible for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration. However, if weighted average of the SWT gradient values obtained from each exponential curve in the piecewise exponential curve is used as a representative value, the correction factor for both the contact configurations becomes a function of the SWT gradient

  19. Seismic protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, R.

    1988-01-01

    To ensure that a nuclear reactor or other damage-susceptible installation is, so far as possible, tripped and already shut down before the arrival of an earthquake shock at its location, a ring of monitoring seismic sensors is provided around it, each sensor being spaced from it by a distance (possibly several kilometres) such that (taking into account the seismic-shock propagation velocity through the intervening ground) a shock monitored by the sensor and then advancing to the installation site will arrive there later than a warning signal emitted by the sensor and received at the installation, by an interval sufficient to allow the installation to trip and shut down, or otherwise assume an optimum anti-seismic mode, in response to the warning signal. Extra sensors located in boreholes may define effectively a three-dimensional (hemispherical) sensing boundary rather than a mere two-dimensional ring. (author)

  20. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  1. Estimation of Source and Attenuation Parameters from Ground Motion Observations for Induced Seismicity in Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novakovic, M.; Atkinson, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    We use a generalized inversion to solve for site response, regional source and attenuation parameters, in order to define a region-specific ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) from ground motion observations in Alberta, following the method of Atkinson et al. (2015 BSSA). The database is compiled from over 200 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 4.2) recorded at ~50 regional stations (distances from 30 to 500 km), over the last few years; almost all of the events have been identified as being induced by oil and gas activity. We remove magnitude scaling and geometric spreading functions from observed ground motions and invert for stress parameter, regional attenuation and site amplification. Resolving these parameters allows for the derivation of a regionally-calibrated GMPE that can be used to accurately predict amplitudes across the region in real time, which is useful for ground-motion-based alerting systems and traffic light protocols. The derived GMPE has further applications for the evaluation of hazards from induced seismicity.

  2. Statistical analysis of seismicity and hazard estimation for Italy (mixed approach). Statistical parameters of main shocks and aftershocks in the Italian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molchan, G.M.; Kronrod, T.L.; Dmitrieva, O.E.

    1995-03-01

    The catalog of earthquakes of Italy (1900-1993) is analyzed in the present work. The following problems have been considered: 1) a choice of the operating magnitude, 2) an analysis of data completeness, and 3) a grouping (in time and in space). The catalog has been separated into main shocks and aftershocks. Statistical estimations of seismicity parameters (a,b) are performed for the seismogenetic zones defined by GNDT. The non-standard elements of the analysis performed are: (a) statistical estimation and comparison of seismicity parameters under the condition of arbitrary data grouping in magnitude, time and space; (b) use of a not conventional statistical method for the aftershock identification; the method is based on the idea of optimizing two kinds of errors in the aftershock identification process; (c) use of the aftershock zones to reveal seismically- interrelated seismogenic zones. This procedure contributes to the stability of the estimation of the ''b-value'' Refs, 25 figs, tabs

  3. Estimation of probability of failure for damage-tolerant aerospace structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbert, Keith

    The majority of aircraft structures are designed to be damage-tolerant such that safe operation can continue in the presence of minor damage. It is necessary to schedule inspections so that minor damage can be found and repaired. It is generally not possible to perform structural inspections prior to every flight. The scheduling is traditionally accomplished through a deterministic set of methods referred to as Damage Tolerance Analysis (DTA). DTA has proven to produce safe aircraft but does not provide estimates of the probability of failure of future flights or the probability of repair of future inspections. Without these estimates maintenance costs cannot be accurately predicted. Also, estimation of failure probabilities is now a regulatory requirement for some aircraft. The set of methods concerned with the probabilistic formulation of this problem are collectively referred to as Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis (PDTA). The goal of PDTA is to control the failure probability while holding maintenance costs to a reasonable level. This work focuses specifically on PDTA for fatigue cracking of metallic aircraft structures. The growth of a crack (or cracks) must be modeled using all available data and engineering knowledge. The length of a crack can be assessed only indirectly through evidence such as non-destructive inspection results, failures or lack of failures, and the observed severity of usage of the structure. The current set of industry PDTA tools are lacking in several ways: they may in some cases yield poor estimates of failure probabilities, they cannot realistically represent the variety of possible failure and maintenance scenarios, and they do not allow for model updates which incorporate observed evidence. A PDTA modeling methodology must be flexible enough to estimate accurately the failure and repair probabilities under a variety of maintenance scenarios, and be capable of incorporating observed evidence as it becomes available. This

  4. A physical model of the Mexico City seismic response after the damaging M7.1 earthquake of September 19, 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Tago, J.; Villafuerte, C. D.; Chaljub, E.; Sanabria-Gómez, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Built-up on top of ancient lake deposits, Mexico City experiences some of the largest seismic site effects in the world. The M7.1 intermediate-depth earthquake of September 19, 2017 (S19) collapsed 43 one-to-ten story buildings in the city close to the western edge of the lake-bed sediments, on top of the geotechnically-known transition zone. In this work we explore the physical reasons explaining such a damaging pattern and the long-lasting strong motion records well-documented from past events by means of new observations and high performance computational modeling. Besides the extreme amplification of seismic waves, duration of intense ground motion in the lake-bed lasts more than three times those recorded in hard-rock a few kilometers away. Different mechanisms contribute to the long lasting motions, such as the regional dispersion and multiple-scattering of the incoming wavefield all the way from the source. However, recent beamforming observations at hard-rock suggest that duration of the incoming field is significantly shorter than the strong shaking in the lake-bed. We show that despite the highly dissipative shallow deposits, seismic energy can propagate long distances in the deep structure of the valley, promoting also a large elongation of motion. Our simulations reveal that the seismic response of the basin is dominated by surface-waves overtones, and that this mechanism increases the duration of ground motion up to 280% and 500% of the incoming wavefield duration at 0.5 and 0.3 Hz, respectively. Furthermore, our results indicate that the damage pattern of the S19 earthquake is most likely due to the propagation of the fundamental mode in the transition zone of the basin. These conclusions contradicts what has been previously stated from observational and modeling investigations, where the basin itself has been discarded as a preponderant factor promoting long and devastating shaking in Mexico City. Reference: Cruz-Atienza, V. M., J. Tago, J. D

  5. Very Fast Estimation of Epicentral Distance and Magnitude from a Single Three Component Seismic Station Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa Gutierrez, L. H.; Niño Vasquez, L. F.; Vargas-Jimenez, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    To minimize adverse effects originated by high magnitude earthquakes, early warning has become a powerful tool to anticipate a seismic wave arrival to an specific location and lets to bring people and government agencies opportune information to initiate a fast response. To do this, a very fast and accurate characterization of the event must be done but this process is often made using seismograms recorded in at least 4 stations where processing time is usually greater than the wave travel time to the interest area, mainly in coarse networks. A faster process can be done if only one three component seismic station is used that is the closest unsaturated station respect to the epicenter. Here we present a Support Vector Regression algorithm which calculates Magnitude and Epicentral Distance using only 5 seconds of signal since P wave onset. This algorithm was trained with 36 records of historical earthquakes where the input were regression parameters of an exponential function estimated by least squares, corresponding to the waveform envelope and the maximum value of the observed waveform for each component in one single station. A 10 fold Cross Validation was applied for a Normalized Polynomial Kernel obtaining the mean absolute error for different exponents and complexity parameters. Magnitude could be estimated with 0.16 of mean absolute error and the distance with an error of 7.5 km for distances within 60 to 120 km. This kind of algorithm is easy to implement in hardware and can be used directly in the field station to make possible the broadcast of estimations of this values to generate fast decisions at seismological control centers, increasing the possibility to have an effective reactiontribute and Descriptors calculator for SVR model training and test

  6. Fast Estimation of Epicentral Distance and Magnitude from a Single Three Component Seismic Station Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa Gutierrez, L. H.; Niño, L. F.; Vargas-Jimenez, C. A.

    2013-05-01

    To minimize adverse effects originated by high magnitude earthquakes, early warning has become a powerful tool to anticipate a seismic wave arrival to an specific location, bringing opportune information to people and government agencies to initiate a fast response. To do this, a very fast and accurate characterization of the event must be done but this process is often made using seismograms recorded in at least four stations where processing time is usually greater than the wave arrival time to the interest area, mainly in seismological coarse networks. A faster process can be done if only one three component seismic station, the closest unsaturated station with respect to the epicenter, is used. Here, we present a Support Vector Regression algorithm which calculates Magnitude and Epicentral Distance using only five seconds of signal since P wave onset. This algorithm was trained with 36 records of historical earthquakes, where the input included regression parameters of an exponential function estimated by least squares, of the waveform envelope and the maximum value of the observed waveform for each component in a single station. A ten-fold Cross Validation was applied for a Normalized Polynomial Kernel obtaining the mean absolute error for different exponents and complexity parameters. The Magnitude could be estimated with 0.16 units of mean absolute error and the distance with an error of 7.5 km for distances within 60 to 120 km. This kind of algorithm is easy to implement in hardware and can be used directly in the field seismological sensor to make the broadcast of estimations of these values possible to generate fast decisions at seismological control centers, increasing the possibility of having an effective reaction.

  7. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

    1999-01-01

    Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

  8. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Tanner

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.. Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion, 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion, and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions

  9. Estimated damage from the Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami: A model comparisons using fragility curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, D. M.; Cox, D. T.; Chen, Y.; Weber, B. A.; Chen, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Building damage from a hypothetical Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami was estimated using two methods and applied at the community scale. The first method applies proposed guidelines for a new ASCE 7 standard to calculate the flow depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux from a known runup limit and estimate of the total tsunami energy at the shoreline. This procedure is based on a potential energy budget, uses the energy grade line, and accounts for frictional losses. The second method utilized numerical model results from previous studies to determine maximum flow depth, velocity, and momentum flux throughout the inundation zone. The towns of Seaside and Canon Beach, Oregon, were selected for analysis due to the availability of existing data from previously published works. Fragility curves, based on the hydrodynamic features of the tsunami flow (inundation depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux) and proposed design standards from ASCE 7 were used to estimate the probability of damage to structures located within the inundations zone. The analysis proceeded at the parcel level, using tax-lot data to identify construction type (wood, steel, and reinforced-concrete) and age, which was used as a performance measure when applying the fragility curves and design standards. The overall probability of damage to civil buildings was integrated for comparison between the two methods, and also analyzed spatially for damage patterns, which could be controlled by local bathymetric features. The two methods were compared to assess the sensitivity of the results to the uncertainty in the input hydrodynamic conditions and fragility curves, and the potential advantages of each method discussed. On-going work includes coupling the results of building damage and vulnerability to an economic input output model. This model assesses trade between business sectors located inside and outside the induction zone, and is used to measure the impact to the regional economy. Results highlight

  10. The influence of local mechanisms on large scale seismic vulnerability estimation of masonry building aggregates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Milo, Bartolomeo; Fabbrocino, Francesco

    2016-12-01

    The current paper deals with the seismic vulnerability evaluation of masonry constructions grouped in aggregates through an "ad hoc" quick vulnerability form based on new assessment parameters considering local collapse mechanisms. First, a parametric kinematic analysis on masonry walls with different height (h) / thickness (t) ratios has been developed with the purpose of identifying the collapse load multiplier for activation of the main four first-order failure mechanisms. Subsequently, a form initially conceived for building aggregates suffering second-mode collapse mechanisms, has been expanded on the basis of the achieved results. Tre proposed quick vulnerability technique has been applied to one case study within the territory of Arsita (Teramo, Italy) and, finally, it has been also validated by the comparison of results with those deriving from application of the well-known FaMIVE procedure.

  11. Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

  12. Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

    2016-12-01

    Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

  13. Experimental Estimation of Journal Bearing Stiffness for Damage Detection in Large Hydrogenerators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geraldo Carvalho Brito

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on experimental pieces of evidence collected in a set of twenty healthy large hydrogenerators, this article shows that the operating conditions of the tilting pad journal bearings of these machines may have unpredictable and significant changes. This behavior prevents the theoretical determination of bearing stiffness and damping coefficients with an adequate accuracy and makes damage detection difficult. Considering that dynamic coefficients have similar sensitivity to damage and considering that it is easier to monitor bearing stiffness than bearing damping, this article discusses a method to estimate experimentally the effective stiffness coefficients of hydrogenerators journal bearings, using only the usually monitored vibrations, with damage detection purposes. Validated using vibration signals synthesized by a simplified mathematical model that simulates the dynamic behavior of large hydrogenerators, the method was applied to a journal bearing of a 700 MW hydrogenerator, using two different excitations, the generator rotor unbalance and the vortices formed in the turbine rotor when this machine operates at partial loads. The experimental bearing stiffnesses obtained using both excitations were similar, but they were also much lower than the theoretical predictions. The article briefly discusses the causes of these discrepancies, the method’s uncertainties, and the possible improvements in its application.

  14. Impacts of seismic activity on long-term repository performance at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, J.H.; Wilson, M.L.; Borns, D.J.; Arnold, B.W.

    1995-01-01

    Several effects of seismic activity on the release of radionuclides from a potential repository at Yucca Mountain are quantified. Future seismic events are predicted using data from the seismic hazard analysis conducted for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Phenomenological models are developed, including rockfall (thermal-mechanical and seismic) in unbackfilled emplacement drifts, container damage caused by fault displacement within the repository, and flow-path chance caused by changes in strain. Using the composite-porosity flow model (relatively large-scale, regular percolation), seismic events show little effect on total-system releases; using the weeps flow model (episodic pulses of flow in locally saturated fractures), container damage and flow-path changes cause over an order of magnitude increase in releases. In separate calculations using, more realistic representations of faulting, water-table rise caused by seismically induced changes in strain are seen to be higher than previously estimated by others, but not sufficient to reach a potential repository

  15. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  16. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Chishan Fault in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun-Sung Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in southern Taiwan as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active faults in this area. The resultant Shake Map patterns of maximum ground motion in a case of Mw 7.2 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northeastern, central and northern parts of southwestern Kaohsiung as well as the southern part of central Tainan, as shown in the regions inside the yellow lines in the corresponding figure. Comparing cities with similar distances located in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung to the Chishan fault, the cities in Tainan area have relatively greater PGA and PGV, due to large site response factors in Tainan area. Furthermore, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are not completely dominated by the Chishan fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are marked with low site response amplification values from 0.55 - 1.1 and 0.67 - 1.22 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55 - 64. Another to pay special attention is Kaohsiung City has more than 540 thousand households whose residences over 50 years old. In light of the results of this study, I urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in southern Taiwan.

  17. Developing and Validating Path-Dependent Uncertainty Estimates for use with the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begnaud, M. L.; Anderson, D. N.; Phillips, W. S.; Myers, S. C.; Ballard, S.

    2016-12-01

    The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) tomography model has been developed to improve travel time predictions for regional phases (Pn, Sn, Pg, Lg) in order to increase seismic location accuracy, especially for explosion monitoring. The RSTT model is specifically designed to exploit regional phases for location, especially when combined with teleseismic arrivals. The latest RSTT model (version 201404um) has been released (http://www.sandia.gov/rstt). Travel time uncertainty estimates for RSTT are determined using one-dimensional (1D), distance-dependent error models, that have the benefit of being very fast to use in standard location algorithms, but do not account for path-dependent variations in error, and structural inadequacy of the RSTTT model (e.g., model error). Although global in extent, the RSTT tomography model is only defined in areas where data exist. A simple 1D error model does not accurately model areas where RSTT has not been calibrated. We are developing and validating a new error model for RSTT phase arrivals by mathematically deriving this multivariate model directly from a unified model of RSTT embedded into a statistical random effects model that captures distance, path and model error effects. An initial method developed is a two-dimensional path-distributed method using residuals. The goals for any RSTT uncertainty method are for it to be both readily useful for the standard RSTT user as well as improve travel time uncertainty estimates for location. We have successfully tested using the new error model for Pn phases and will demonstrate the method and validation of the error model for Sn, Pg, and Lg phases.

  18. Estimation of irradiation-induced material damage measure of FCM fuel in LWR core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyung-Hoon; Lee, Chungchan; Park, Sang-Yoon; Cho, Jin-Young; Chang, Jonghwa; Lee, Won Jae

    2014-01-01

    An irradiation-induced material damage measure on tri-isotropic (TRISO) multi-coating layers of fully ceramic micro-encapsulated (FCM) fuel to replace conventional uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel for existing light water reactors (LWRs) has been estimated using a displacement per atom (DPA) cross section for a FCM fuel performance analysis. The DPA cross sections in 47 and 190 energy groups for both silicon carbide (SiC) and graphite are generated based on the molecular dynamics simulation by SRIM/TRIM. For the selected FCM fuel assembly design with FeCrAl cladding, a core depletion analysis was carried out using the DeCART2D/MASTER code system with the prepared DPA cross sections to evaluate the irradiation effect in the Korean OPR-1000. The DPA of the SiC and IPyC coating layers is estimated by comparing the discharge burnup obtained from the MASTER calculation with the burnup-dependent DPA for each coating layer calculated using DeCART2D. The results show that low uranium loading and hardened neutron spectrum compared to that of high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) result in high discharge burnup and high fast neutron fluence. In conclusion, it can be seen that the irradiation-induced material damage measure is noticeably increased under LWR operating conditions compared to HTGRs. (author)

  19. Estimation of subsurface structures in a Minami Noshiro 3D seismic survey region by seismic-array observations of microtremors; Minami Noshiro sanjigen jishin tansa kuikinai no hyoso kozo ni tsuite. Bido no array kansoku ni yoru suitei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okada, H; Ling, S; Ishikawa, K [Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan); Tsuburaya, Y; Minegishi, M [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan). Technology Research Center

    1997-05-27

    Japan National Oil Corporation Technology Research Center has carried out experiments on the three-dimensional seismic survey method which is regarded as an effective means for petroleum exploration. The experiments were conducted at the Minami Noshiro area in Akita Prefecture. Seismometer arrays were developed in radii of 30 to 300 m at seven points in the three-dimensional seismic exploration region to observe microtremors. The purpose is to estimate S-wave velocities from the ground surface to the foundation by using surface waves included in microtremors. Estimation of the surface bed structure is also included in the purpose since this is indispensable in seismic exploration using the reflection method. This paper reports results of the microtremor observations and the estimation on S-wave velocities (microtremor exploration). One or two kinds of arrays with different sizes composed of seven observation points per area were developed to observe microtremors independently. The important point in the result obtained in the present experiments is that a low velocity bed suggesting existence of faults was estimated. It will be necessary to repeat experiments and observations in the future to verify whether this microtremor exploration method has that much of exploration capability. For the time being, however, interest is addressed to considerations on comparison with the result of 3D experiments using the reflection method. 4 refs., 7 figs.

  20. A new method for the realistic estimation of seismic ground motion in megacities: The case of Rome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faeh, D.; Iodice, C.; Suhadole, P.; Panza, G.F.

    1994-04-01

    A hybrid technique, based on mode summation and finite differences, is used to simulate the ground motion induced in the city of Rome by the January 13, 1915, Fucino (Italy) earthquake (M=6.9). The technique allows us to take into consideration source, path, and local soil effects. The results of the numerical simulations are used for a comparison between the observed distribution of damage in Rome, and certain quantities related to the computed ground motion. These quantities are those commonly used for engineering purposes, e.g. the peak ground acceleration, the maximum response of a simple oscillator, and the so-called ''total energy of ground motion'' which is related to the Arias Intensity. Integral quantities of the computed time-series, such as the total energy of ground motion, are in good agreement with the observed distribution of damage and turn out to give a good representation of the ground motion. From the computation of spectral ratios, it has been recognised that the presence of a near-surface layer of rigid material is not sufficient to classify a location as a ''hard-rock site'' when the rigid material has a sedimentary complex below it. This is because the underlying sedimentary complex causes amplifications due to resonances. Within sedimentary basins, incident energy in certain frequency bands can also be shifted from the vertical, into the radial component of motion. This phenomenon is very localized, both in frequency and space, and closely neighboring sites can be characterized by very large differences in the seismic response, even if the lateral variations of local soil conditions are relatively smooth. (author). Refs, 12 figs, 1 tab

  1. Seismic effects on bedrock and underground constructions. A literature survey of damage on constructions; Changes in groundwater levels and flow; Changes in chemistry in groundwater and gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roeshoff, Kennert.

    1989-06-01

    This report is a literature review of direct and indirect effects of earthquakes on underground constructions as tunnels, caverns and mines. The direct damage will cause vibrations, shaking and displacement, which may lead to partial or total destruction of the underground facility. Damage caused by shaking has been reported in several studies, and several hundreds of events have been reported both from mines and tunnels. These reports are mainly from active earthquake areas. There are very few reports of damage caused by displacements on an existing fault. The damage, which may be severe, is generally concentrated to the vicinity of the fault zone. The report also includes a review of the effects caused by earthquakes on groundwater level, flow, pressure, chemistry and constituents in the ground. Such changes are mainly reported from studies in wells near active faults. The interesting coupling of changes in groundwater characteristics around an underground construction is, unfortunately, very seldom reported. The groundwater level and pressure changes are discussed in Chapter 4. The bases for this part of the review is taken from the Alaska earthquake 1964. Other observations are reported from wells and reservoirs located near existing faults. Changes of the geochemistry in groundwater and soil gases are reviewed in Chapter 4. The mechanisms of seismochemical anomalies are discussed and examples of short and long term monitoring are given from USA, Soviet Union and China. Gases in ground water and soil is reported in Chapter 5. Radon is so far one of the most studied species and its variation in short, medium and long term with seismic activity is rather well understood. Other gases or isotopes that have been studied include helium, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, argon and methane, radium and uranium. The paper also includes same statements for repository design based on the result of the review. (81 refs.)

  2. Validation of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.

    1994-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear plant requires identification and information regarding the seismic hazard at the plant site, dominant accident sequences leading to core damage, and structure and equipment fragilities. Uncertainties are associated with each of these ingredients of a PRA. Sources of uncertainty due to seismic hazard and assumptions underlying the component fragility modeling may be significant contributors to uncertainty in estimates of core damage probability. Design and construction errors also may be important in some instances. When these uncertainties are propagated through the PRA, the frequency distribution of core damage probability may span three orders of magnitude or more. This large variability brings into question the credibility of PRA methods and the usefulness of insights to be gained from a PRA. The sensitivity of accident sequence probabilities and high-confidence, low probability of failure (HCLPF) plant fragilities to seismic hazard and fragility modeling assumptions was examined for three nuclear power plants. Mean accident sequence probabilities were found to be relatively insensitive (by a factor of two or less) to: uncertainty in the coefficient of variation (logarithmic standard deviation) describing inherent randomness in component fragility; truncation of lower tail of fragility; uncertainty in random (non-seismic) equipment failures (e.g., diesel generators); correlation between component capacities; and functional form of fragility family. On the other hand, the accident sequence probabilities, expressed in the form of a frequency distribution, are affected significantly by the seismic hazard modeling, including slopes of seismic hazard curves and likelihoods assigned to those curves

  3. Seismic resistance of equipment and building service systems: review of earthquake damage design requirements, and research applications in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skjei, R.E.; Chakravartula, B.C.; Yanev, P.I.

    1979-01-01

    The history of earthquake damage and the resulting code design requirements for earthquake hazard mitigation for equipment in the USA is reviewed. Earthquake damage to essential service systems is summarized; observations for the 1964 Alaska and the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquakes are stressed, and information from other events is included. USA building codes that reflect lessons learned from these earthquakes are discussed; brief summaries of widely used codes are presented. In conclusion there is a discussion of the desirability of adapting advanced technological concepts from the nuclear industry to equipment in conventional structures. (author)

  4. Cumulative damage and estimation of residual life in metallic alloys under creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, T.L. da.

    1980-07-01

    The mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics have been determined for a group of materials tested under conditions of creep, and the ability of various models detailed in the literature to describe these observed characteristics discussed. The parametric methods employed in formulating the indices which define the allowable stresses for design codes have been analysed, and a method of Minimum Standard Deviation (MSD) for construction of reference curves has been proposed. The constitutive equations used in the methods of analysis of creep stresses have been discussed. Finally, the accumulated damage by creep in a particular structure which had been in extended service has been characterized and, based on these observations, the methods for estimation of remaining life in industrial equipment have been analysed. (Author) [pt

  5. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  6. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9 occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF. However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3 × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  7. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  8. Study on seismic behaviour of integral concrete bridges with different skew angles through fragility curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Reza ُُShiravand

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bridges are key elements in urban transportation system and should be designed to sustain earthquake induced damages to be utilized after earthquake. Extensive damages during last earthquakes highlighted the importance of seismic assessment and damage estimation of bridges. Skewness is one of the primary parameters effects on seismic behavior of bridges. Skew bridges are defined as bridges with skew angle piers and abutments. In these bridges, the piers have some degrees of skewness due to construction restrictions, such as those caused by crossing a waterway, railway line or road. This paper aims to investigate seismic behavior of skew concrete bridges using damage criteria and estimate probability of piers damage with fragility curves. To this end, three types of concrete bridges with two, three and four spans and varying skew angles of 00 ,100, 200 and 300 are modeled with finite element software. Seismic responses of bridge piers under 10 earthquake ground motion records are calculated using incremental dynamic analysis. Following, damage criteria proposed by Mackie and Stojadinovic are used to define damage limits of bridge piers in four damage states of slight, moderate, extensive and complete and bridge fragility curves are developed. The results show that increasing skew angles increases the probability of damage occurrence, particularly in extensive and complete damage states.

  9. Estimation of seismic velocity in the subducting crust of the Pacific slab beneath Hokkaido, northern Japan by using guided waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiina, T.; Nakajima, J.; Toyokuni, G.; Kita, S.; Matsuzawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    A subducting crust contains a large amount of water as a form of hydrous minerals (e.g., Hacker et al., 2003), and the crust plays important roles for water transportation and seismogenesis in subduction zones at intermediate depths (e.g., Kirby et al., 1996; Iwamori, 2007). Therefore, the investigation of seismic structure in the crust is important to understand ongoing physical processes with subduction of oceanic lithosphere. A guided wave which propagates in the subducting crust is recorded in seismograms at Hokkaido, northern Japan (Shiina et al., 2014). Here, we estimated P- and S-wave velocity in the crust with guided waves, and obtained P-wave velocity of 6.6-7.3 km/s and S-wave velocity of 3.6-4.2 km/s at depths of 50-90 km. Moreover, Vp/Vs ratio in the crust is calculated to be 1.80-1.85 in that depth range. The obtained P-wave velocity about 6.6km/s at depths of 50-70 km is consistent with those estimated in Tohoku, northeast Japan (Shiina et al., 2013), and this the P-wave velocity is lower than those expected from models of subducting crustal compositions, such as metamorphosed MORB model (Hacker et al., 2003). In contrast, at greater depths (>80 km), the P-wave velocity marks higher velocity than the case of NE Japan and the velocity is roughly comparable to those of the MORB model. The obtained S-wave velocity distribution also shows characteristics similar to P waves. This regional variation may be caused by a small variation in thermal regime of the Pacific slab beneath the two regions as a result of the normal subduction in Tohoku and oblique subduction in Hokkaido. In addition, the effect of seismic anisotropy in the subducting crust would not be ruled out because rays used in the analysis in Hokkaido propagate mostly in the trench-parallel direction, while those in Tohoku are sufficiently criss-crossed.

  10. Seismic testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sollogoub, Pierre

    2001-01-01

    This lecture deals with: qualification methods for seismic testing; objectives of seismic testing; seismic testing standards including examples; main content of standard; testing means; and some important elements of seismic testing

  11. Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

    2007-01-01

    An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

  12. Demonstration of NonLinear Seismic Soil Structure Interaction and Applicability to New System Fragility Seismic Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Nuclear Science and Technology

    2014-09-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRAs are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (the frequency of certain magnitude events) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and systems analysis. Figure 1 provides a high level overview of the risk quantification process. The focus of this research is on understanding and removing conservatism (when possible) in the quantification of seismic risk at NPPs.

  13. A derivative-free approach for the estimation of porosity and permeability using time-lapse seismic and production data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dadashpour, Mohsen; Kleppe, Jon; Landrø, Martin; Echeverria Ciaurri, David; Mukerji, Tapan

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we apply a derivative-free optimization algorithm to estimate porosity and permeability from time-lapse seismic data and production data from a real reservoir (Norne field). In some circumstances, obtaining gradient information (exact and/or approximate) can be problematic e.g. derivatives are not available from a commercial simulator, or results are needed within a very short time frame. Derivative-free optimization approaches can be very time consuming because they often require many simulations. Typically, one iteration roughly needs as many simulations as the number of optimization variables. In this work, we propose two ways to significantly increase the efficiency of an optimization methodology in model inversion problems. First, by principal component analysis we decrease the number of optimization variables while keeping geostatistical consistency, and second, noticing that some optimization methods are very amenable to being parallelized, we apply them within a distributed computing framework. If we combine all this, the model inversion approach can be robust, fairly efficient and very simple to implement. In this paper, we apply the methodology to two cases: a semi-synthetic model with noisy data, and a case based entirely on field data. The results show that the derivative-free approach presented is robust against noise in the data

  14. The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2013-01-01

    Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

  15. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  16. Methodology of structures damage estimation in case of cantilever isotropic beam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylwester Samborski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on analysis of damage detection cantilever beam. Finite Element Method was used to simulate vibrations of the intact and the damaged beams. Analysis of natural frequencies of both the intact and the damaged beams was performed in order to observe the effect of damage on the beams dynamics. Next, the phase diagrams technique was applied and finally, experimental verification was performed to check the numerical results.

  17. Study on seismic stability of seawall in man-made island. Pt. 5. Deformation of actual seawall during earthquake and estimation of seismic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanatani, Mamoru; Tochigi, Hitoshi; Kawai, Tadashi; Sakakiyama, Tsutomu; Kudo, Koji

    1999-01-01

    In the development of the man-made island siting technology of nuclear power plants, assessing the stability of the seawall against large ocean waves and earthquakes is indispensable. Concerning the seismic stability of the seawall, prediction of the deformation of the seawall during earthquake is important to evaluate the seismic performance of the seawall after the earthquake. In the this report, the deformation of the actual seawall was predicted from the results of the centrifuge model tests and the case studies by the numerical analyses. Furthermore, wave flume model tests of the seawall with the deformed armour embankment by the earthquake shaking were conducted to investigate the effects of the deformation of the armoured embankment to the overtopping discharge by the waves. Obtained results were as follows: (1) It was experimentally confirmed that the slope gentleness and the decrease of the top elevation of the armoured embankment induced by the earthquake did not lead to the increase of the overtopping discharge by the waves after the earthquake. (2) Subsidence and lateral displacement at the top of the parapet of the seawall caused by the S2 scale earthquake were approximately 0.12 m-0.2 m and 0.18 m-0.6 m respectively under the condition that the thickness of the sand seabed was 10 m and relative density was 60%. (3) Even though such displacements were induced at the top of the parapet of the seawall, seismic performance of the seawall against the large waves was kept after the earthquake. (author)

  18. Seismicity-based estimation of the driving fluid pressure in the case of swarm activity in Western Bohemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hainzl, S.; Fischer, T.; Dahm, T.

    2012-10-01

    Two recent major swarms in Western Bohemia occurred in the years 2000 and 2008 within almost the same portion of a fault close to Novy Kostel. Previous analysis of the year 2000 earthquake swarm revealed that fluid intrusion seemed to initiate the activity whereas stress redistribution by the individual swarm earthquakes played a major role in the further swarm evolution. Here we analyse the new swarm, which occurred in the year 2008, with regard to its correlation to the previous swarm as well its spatiotemporal migration patterns. We find that (i) the main part of the year 2008 activity ruptured fault patches adjacent to the main activity of the swarm 2000, but that also (ii) a significant overlap exists where earthquakes occurred in patches in which stress had been already released by precursory events; (iii) the activity shows a clear migration which can be described by a 1-D (in up-dip direction) diffusion process; (iv) the migration pattern can be equally well explained by a hydrofracture growth, which additionally explains the faster migration in up-dip compared to the down-dip direction as well as the maximum up-dip extension of the activity. We use these observations to estimate the underlying fluid pressure change in two different ways: First, we calculate the stress changes induced by precursory events at the location of each swarm earthquake assuming that observed stress deficits had to be compensated by pore pressure increases; and secondly, we estimate the fluid overpressure by fitting a hydrofracture model to the asymmetric seismicity patterns. Both independent methods indicate that the fluid pressure increase was initially up to 30 MPa.

  19. Estimation of dynamic loading on a design of the NPP caused by seismic influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proskuryakov, Konstantin

    2011-01-01

    Methods and algorithms of calculations of quality factor of a stream of the coolant are developed. Quantitative estimations of a range of frequency of vibration - acoustical resonance between the coolant flowing through the reactor core and fuel assembly vibration in the NPP with WWER-1000 are provided. The design procedure of quality factor of a stream of the coolant and a band - width in advanced light water reactor is developed. The experimental substantiation of sharp increase of intensity of vibrations at occurrence of vibration - acoustical resonance is received. The reasons of abnormal growth of level of vibrations are identified at stationary modes of cold - ops, hot - ops of the equipment of reactor installations with WWER-1000. It is showed that for prevention of vibration - acoustical resonance of the coolant and fuel assembly it is necessary and sufficient to deduce own frequency of fuel assembly vibrations from band - width limits. The technique of designing of cartograms of a reactor core with indication of quantity and location of fuel assemblies with high level of vibration is worked out. (author)

  20. Damage of tracer erythropoietin results in erroneous estimation of concentration in mouse submaxillary gland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, A; Carcagno, M; Criscuolo, M; Barcelò, A C; Alippi, R M; Leal, T; Bozzini, C E

    1993-02-01

    It has been previously reported that 1) plasma erythropoietin (Epo) titer during exposure to hypobaria is lower in nephrectomized rats and mice whose submaxillary glands (SMG) were either ablated or atrophied than in nephrectomized controls whose SMG were intact and 2) that the gland shows one of the highest levels of immunoreactive Epo (iEpo) in the body. The latter observation, however, was questioned recently when it was observed that SMG extracts degrade labeled Epo used as tracer antigen in the radioimmunoassay (RIA), thus giving invalid estimates of Epo. Since this interpretation was in turn questioned, the present study was conducted to obtain more information on the subject and make these conflicting points clear. Investigation of the reported/possible degradation of Epo by SMG homogenates was conducted via polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis followed by radioautography or by a RIA in solid phase in which there was no simultaneous incubation of the tracer antigen with the SMG homogenates. It was observed that 125I-labeled rhEpo was degraded when incubated with SMG homogenates. Degradation was rapid, being evident when incubation lasted 30 minutes, and occurred in the presence of a protease inhibitor. It showed a high degree of specificity since it did not occur when Epo was incubated with kidney homogenate or normal mouse serum. SMG homogenate did not degrade labeled thyrotrophic hormone and degraded alpha interferon (IFN-alpha) only partially. When estimates of iEpo in SMG homogenate were performed in conditions of simultaneous (SI-RIA) or nonsimultaneous (NSI-RIA) incubation of the homogenate with tracer Epo, it was observed that while estimates of Epo in plasma were similar in both types of RIA and somewhat higher in kidney homogenate in the SI-RIA than in the NSI-RIA, estimates of Epo in SMG were about 60 times higher in the former than in the latter. Therefore, it could be concluded that most of the Epo detected by standard RIA in SMG homogenate does

  1. IMPLEMENTATION OF KRIGING METHODS IN MOBILE GIS TO ESTIMATE DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN CRISIS SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Laun

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the paper an example for the application of kriging methods to estimate damage to buildings in crisis scenarios is introduced. Furthermore, the Java implementations for Ordinary and Universal Kriging on mobile GIS are presented. As variogram models an exponential, a Gaussian and a spherical variogram are tested in detail. Different test constellations are introduced with various information densities. As test data set, public data from the analysis of the 2010 Haiti earthquake by satellite images are pre-processed and visualized in a Geographic Information System. As buildings, topography and other external influences cannot be seen as being constant for the whole area under investigation, semi variograms are calculated by consulting neighboured classified buildings using the so called moving window method. The evaluation of the methods shows that the underlying variogram model is the determining factor for the quality of the interpolation rather than the choice of the kriging method or increasing the information density of a random sample. The implementation is completely realized with the programming language Java. Thereafter, the implemented software component is integrated into GeoTech Mobile, a mobile GIS Android application based on the processing of standardized spatial data representations defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. As a result the implemented methods can be used on mobile devices, i.e. they may be transferred to other application fields. That is why we finally point out further research with new applications in the Dubai region.

  2. Estimation of Temperature Conductivity Coefficient Impact upon Fatigue Damage of Material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bibik, V; Galeeva, A

    2015-01-01

    In the paper we consider the peculiarities of adhesive wear of cutting tools. Simulation of heat flows in the cutting zone showed that, as thermal conduction and heat conductivity of tool material grow, the heat flows from the front and back surfaces to tool holder will increase and so, the temperature of the contact areas of the tool will lower. When estimating the adhesive wear rate of cemented-carbide tool under the cutting rates corresponding to the cutting temperature of up to 900 °C, it is necessary to take the fatigue character of adhesive wear into consideration. The process of accumulation and development of fatigue damage is associated with micro- and macroplastic flowing of material, which is determined by the processes of initiation, motion, generation, and elimination of line defects - dislocations. Density of dislocations grows with increase of the loading cycles amount and increase of load amplitude. Growth of dislocations density leads to loosening of material, formation of micro- and macrocracks. The heat capacity of material grows as the loosening continues. In the given paper the authors prove theoretically that temperature conductivity coefficient which is associated with heat capacity of material, decreases as fatigue wear grows. (paper)

  3. A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

  4. Estimating the response times of human operators working in the main control room of nuclear power plants based on the context of a seismic event – A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Yochan; Kim, Jung Han; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Response times under seismic events are necessary for human reliability analysis. • Conceptual framework to estimate response times under a seismic event is suggested. • Four kinds of representative contexts in seismic events are considered. • Rules for estimating response times on the representative contexts are extracted. - Abstract: After the Fukushima accident, a couple of novel issues have raised in terms of the safety assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This means that the performance of human operators should be properly evaluated under an extreme event. However, it is unrealistic to collect a sufficient amount of human performance data from a real event, such as a great earthquake. As one of the promising solutions, a conceptual framework is suggested in this paper, which is helpful for estimating the response time data of human operators working in the main control room of NPPs under a seismic event. To this end, the four kinds of representative contexts that could be anticipated from seismic events are identified. Then the response times of human operators who are faced with similar contexts are reviewed from existing literatures and databases. As a result, a couple of rules that allow us to extrapolate the response times of human operators under seismic events are extracted. Although underlying rationales being used for determining these rules are still arguable, it is expected that response times under seismic events could be properly understood along with accumulating those of human operators against non-seismic conditions

  5. Earth modeling and estimation of the local seismic ground motion due to site geology in complex volcanoclastic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Di Fiore

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic areas often show complex behaviour as far as seismic waves propagation and seismic motion at surface are concerned. In fact, the finite lateral extent of surface layers such as lava flows, blocks, differential welding and/or zeolitization within pyroclastic deposits, introduces in the propagation of seismic waves effects such as the generation of surface waves at the edge, resonance in lateral direction, diffractions and scattering of energy, which tend to modify the amplitude as well as the duration of the ground motion. The irregular topographic surface, typical of volcanic areas, also strongly influences the seismic site response. Despite this heterogeneity, it is unfortunately a common geophysical and engineering practice to evaluate even in volcanic environments the subsurface velocity field with monodimensional investigation method (i.e. geognostic soundings, refraction survey, down-hole, etc. prior to the seismic site response computation which in a such cases is obviously also made with 1D algorithms. This approach often leads to highly inaccurate results. In this paper we use a different approach, i.e. a fully 2D P-wave Çturning rayÈ tomographic survey followed by 2D seismic site response modeling. We report here the results of this approach in three sites located at short distance from Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and characterized by overburdens constituted by volcanoclastic deposits with large lateral and vertical variations of their elastic properties. Comparison between 1D and 2D Dynamic Amplification Factor shows in all reported cases entirely different results, both in terms of peak period and spectral contents, as expected from the clear bidimensionality of the geological section. Therefore, these studies suggest evaluating carefully the subsoil geological structures in areas characterized by possible large lateral and vertical variations of the elastic properties in order to reach correct seismic site response

  6. Estimating willingness to pay for protection of eastern black walnut from deer damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larry D. Godsey; John P. Dwyer

    2008-01-01

    For many landowners willing to plant trees, one of the biggest establishment and maintenance costs is protecting those young trees from deer browse damage. In some cases, the method of protection used can cost two to three times as much as the cost of planting. Deer damage such as nipping off terminal buds and buck rub penetrating the bark and cambial tissue can kill...

  7. Non-local modelling of cyclic thermal shock damage including parameter estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damhof, F.; Brekelmans, W.A.M.; Geers, M.G.D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, rate dependent evolution laws are identified and characterized to model the mechanical (elasticity-based) and thermal damage occurring in coarse grain refractory material subject to cyclic thermal shock. The interacting mechanisms for elastic deformation driven damage induced by

  8. ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED AREAS DUE TO THE 2010 CHILE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI USING SAR IMAGERY OF ALOS/PALSAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Ni Made

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A large-scale earthquake and tsunami affect thousands of people and cause serious damages worldwide every year. Quick observation of the disaster damage is extremely important for planning effective rescue operations. In the past, acquiring damage information was limited to only field surveys or using aerial photographs. In the last decade, space-borne images were used in many disaster researches, such as tsunami damage detection. In this study, SAR data of ALOS/PALSAR satellite images were used to estimate tsunami damage in the form of inundation areas in Talcahuano, the area near the epicentre of the 2010 Chile earthquake. The image processing consisted of three stages, i.e. pre-processing, analysis processing, and post-processing. It was conducted using multi-temporal images before and after the disaster. In the analysis processing, inundation areas were extracted through the masking processing. It consisted of water masking using a high-resolution optical image of ALOS/AVNIR-2 and elevation masking which built upon the inundation height using DEM image of ASTER-GDEM. The area result was 8.77 Km2. It showed a good result and corresponded to the inundation map of Talcahuano. Future study in another area is needed in order to strengthen the estimation processing method.

  9. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  10. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  11. Application of Modal Parameter Estimation Methods for Continuous Wavelet Transform-Based Damage Detection for Beam-Like Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Qiu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hybrid damage detection method based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT and modal parameter identification techniques for beam-like structures. First, two kinds of mode shape estimation methods, herein referred to as the quadrature peaks picking (QPP and rational fraction polynomial (RFP methods, are used to identify the first four mode shapes of an intact beam-like structure based on the hammer/accelerometer modal experiment. The results are compared and validated using a numerical simulation with ABAQUS software. In order to determine the damage detection effectiveness between the QPP-based method and the RFP-based method when applying the CWT technique, the first two mode shapes calculated by the QPP and RFP methods are analyzed using CWT. The experiment, performed on different damage scenarios involving beam-like structures, shows that, due to the outstanding advantage of the denoising characteristic of the RFP-based (RFP-CWT technique, the RFP-CWT method gives a clearer indication of the damage location than the conventionally used QPP-based (QPP-CWT method. Finally, an overall evaluation of the damage detection is outlined, as the identification results suggest that the newly proposed RFP-CWT method is accurate and reliable in terms of detection of damage locations on beam-like structures.

  12. Enhanced seismic criteria for piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touboul, F. . E-mail francoise.touboul@cea.fr; Blay, N.; Sollogoub, P.; Chapuliot, S.

    2006-01-01

    In situ or laboratory experiments have shown that piping systems exhibit satisfactory seismic behavior. Seismic motion is not severe enough to significantly damage piping systems unless large differential motions of anchorage are imposed. Nevertheless, present design criteria for piping are very severe and require a large number of supports, which creates overly rigid piping systems. CEA, in collaboration with EDF, FRAMATOME and IRSN, has launched a large R and D program on enhanced design methods which will be less severe, but still conservative, and compatible with defect justification during operation. This paper presents the background of the R and D work on this matter, and CEA proposed equations. Our approach is based on the difference between the real behavior (or the best estimated computed one) with the one supposed by codified methods. Codified criteria are applied on an elastically calculated behavior that can be significantly different from the real one: the effect of plasticity may be very meaningful, even with low incursion in the plastic domain. Moreover, and particularly in piping systems, the elastic follow-up effect affects stress distribution for both seismic and thermal loads. For seismic load, we have proposed to modify the elastic moment limitation, based on the interpretation of experimental results on piping systems. The methods have been validated on more industrial cases, and some of the consequences of the changes have been studied: modification of the drawings and of the number of supports, global displacements, forces in the supports, stability of potential defects, etc. The basic aim of the studies undertaken is to make a decision on the stress classification problem, one that is not limited to seismic induced stresses, and to propose simplified methods for its solution

  13. Martian seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goins, N.R.; Lazarewicz, A.R.

    1979-01-01

    During the Viking mission to Mars, the seismometer on Lander II collected approximately 0.24 Earth years of observations data, excluding periods of time dominated by wind-induced Lander vibration. The ''quiet-time'' data set contains no confirmed seismic events. A proper assessment of the significance of this fact requires quantitative estimates of the expected detection rate of the Viking seismometer. The first step is to calculate the minimum magnitude event detectable at a given distance, including the effects of geometric spreading, anelastic attenuation, seismic signal duration, seismometer frequency response, and possible poor ground coupling. Assuming various numerical quantities and a Martian seismic activity comparable to that of intraplate earthquakes, the appropriate integral gives an expected annual detection rate of 10 events, nearly all of which are local. Thus only two to three events would be expected in the observational period presently on hand and the lack of observed events is not in gross contradiction to reasonable expectations. Given the same assumptions, a seismometer 20 times more sensitive than the present instrument would be expected to detect about 120 events annually

  14. Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

    2016-10-01

    The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

  15. In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region...part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.

    1976-01-01

    Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for determining the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. Currently a program is in progress to measure seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region at an estimated 150 sites. At each site seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill hole cuttings, undisturbed samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the site. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. The broad data base available in the San Francisco Bay region suggests using the area as a pilot area for the development of general techniques applicable to other areas.

  16. Estimating regional pore pressure distribution using 3D seismic velocities in the Dutch Central North Sea Graben

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winthaegen, P.L.A.; Verweij, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    The application of the empirical Eaton method to calibrated sonic well information and 3D seismic interval velocity data in the southeastern part of the Central North Sea Graben, using the Japsen (Glob. Planet. Change 24 (2000) 189) normal velocitydepth trend, resulted in the identification of an

  17. Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo [Div. of Mechanical Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

  18. Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage

  19. Estimation of Probability Density Functions of Damage Parameter for Valve Leakage Detection in Reciprocating Pump Used in Nuclear Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Kyeom Lee

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

  20. Application of seismic interferometry to an exploration of subsurface structure by using microtremors. Estimation of deep ground structures in the Wakasa bay region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hiroaki; Kuriyama, Masayuki; Higashi, Sadanori; Shiba, Yoshiaki; Okazaki, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    We carried out continuous measurements of microtremors to synthesize Green's function based on seismic interferometry in order to estimate deep subsurface structures of the Ohshima peninsula (OSM) and the Otomi peninsula (OTM) in the Wakasa bay region. Using more than 80 days of data, dispersive waveforms in the cross correlations were identified as a Green's function based on seismic interferometry. Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at OSM and OTM were estimated by two different method using microtremors: first, by analyzing microtremor array data, and second, by applying the f-k spectral analysis to synthesized Green's functions derived from cross-correlation with a common observation station. Relatively longer period of phase velocities were estimated by the f-k spectral analysis using the synthesized Green's functions with a common observation station. This suggests that the synthesized Green's functions from seismic interferometry can provide a valuable data for phase velocity inversion to estimate a deep subsurface structure. By identifying deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM based on an inversion of phase velocity from both methods, the depth of S wave velocity of about 3.5 km/s, considered as a top of seismogenic layer, were determined to be 3.8 - 4.0 km at OSM and 4.4 - 4.6 km at OTM, respectively. Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities were estimated from the multiple filtering analysis of the synthesized Green's functions. From the comparison of observed surface wave group velocities and theoretical group velocities of OSM and OTM, we demonstrated that the observed group velocities were in good agreement with the average of theoretical group velocities calculated by identified deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM. It is suggested that the deep subsurface structure of the shallow sea region between two peninsulas is continuous structure from OSM to OTM and that Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities using

  1. Use of plasma creatine kinase pharmacokinetics to estimate the amount of excercise-induced muscle damage in Beagles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanoit, G P; Lefebvre, H P; Orcel, K; Laroute, V; Toutain, P L; Braun, J P

    2001-09-01

    To assess the effects of moderate exercise on plasma creatine kinase (CK) pharmacokinetics and to estimate exercise-induced muscle damage in dogs. 6 untrained adult Beagles. The study was divided into 3 phases. In phase 1, dogs ran for 1 hour at a speed of 9 km/h, and samples were used to determine the area under the plasma CK activity versus time curve (AUC) induced by exercise. In phases 2 and 3, pharmacokinetics of CK were calculated in dogs during exercise and at rest, respectively. Values for AUC and plasma clearance (CI) were used to estimate muscle damage. At rest, values for Cl, steady-state volume of distribution (Vdss), and mean retention time (MRT) were 0.32+/-0.02 ml/kg of body weight/min, 57+/-173 ml/kg, and 3.0+/-0.57 h, respectively. During exercise, Cl decreased significantly (0.26+/-0.03 ml/kg/min), MRT increased significantly, (4.4+/-0.97 h), and Vdss remained unchanged. Peak of plasma CK activity (151+/-58.8 U/L) was observed 3 hours after completion of exercise. Estimated equivalent amount of muscle corresponding to the quantity of CK released was 41+/-29.3 mg/kg. These results revealed that exercise had a minor effect on CK disposition and that the equivalent amount of muscle damaged by moderate exercise was negligible. This study illustrates the relevance for use of the minimally invasive and quantitative pharmacokinetic approach when estimating muscle damage.

  2. On Monte Carlo estimation of radiation damage in light water reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Read, Edward A.; Oliveira, Cassiano R.E. de

    2010-01-01

    There has been a growing need in recent years for the development of methodologies to calculate damage factors, namely displacements per atom (dpa), of structural components for Light Water Reactors (LWRs). The aim of this paper is discuss and highlight the main issues associated with the calculation of radiation damage factors utilizing the Monte Carlo method. Among these issues are: particle tracking and tallying in complex geometries, dpa calculation methodology, coupled fuel depletion and uncertainty propagation. The capabilities of the Monte Carlo code Serpent such as Woodcock tracking and burnup are assessed for radiation damage calculations and its capability demonstrated and compared to those of the MCNP code for dpa calculations of a typical LWR configuration involving the core vessel and the downcomer. (author)

  3. On the Influence of Input Data Quality to Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Molinari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available IN-depth SYnthetic Model for Flood Damage Estimation (INSYDE is a model for the estimation of flood damage to residential buildings at the micro-scale. This study investigates the sensitivity of INSYDE to the accuracy of input data. Starting from the knowledge of input parameters at the scale of individual buildings for a case study, the level of detail of input data is progressively downgraded until the condition in which a representative value is defined for all inputs at the census block scale. The analysis reveals that two conditions are required to limit the errors in damage estimation: the representativeness of representatives values with respect to micro-scale values and the local knowledge of the footprint area of the buildings, being the latter the main extensive variable adopted by INSYDE. Such a result allows for extending the usability of the model at the meso-scale, also in different countries, depending on the availability of aggregated building data.

  4. Seismic PSA of nuclear power plants a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Dubey, P.N.; Reddy, G.R.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-07-01

    Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Seismic PSA) analysis is an external event PSA analysis. The objective of seismic PSA for the plants is to examine the existence of plant vulnerabilities against postulated earthquakes by numerically assessing the plant safety and to take appropriate measures to enhance the plant safety. Seismic PSA analysis integrates the seismic hazard analysis, seismic response analysis, seismic fragility analysis and system reliability/ accident sequence analysis. In general, the plant consists of normally operating and emergency standby systems and components. The failure during an earthquake (induced directly by excessive inertial stresses or indirectly following the failure of some other item) of an operating component will lead to a change in the state of the plant. In that case, various scenarios can follow depending on the initiating event and the status of other sub-systems. The analysis represents these possible chronological sequences by an event tree. The event trees and the associated fault trees model the sub-systems down to the level of individual components. The procedure has been applied for a typical Indian nuclear power plant. From the internal event PSA level I analysis significant contribution to the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found due to the Fire Water System. Hence, this system was selected to establish the procedure of seismic PSA. In this report the different elements that go into seismic PSA analysis have been discussed. Hazard curves have been developed for the site. Fragility curve for the seismically induced failure of Class IV power has been developed. The fragility curve for fire-water piping system has been generated. Event tree for Class IV power supply has been developed and the dominating accident sequences were identified. CDF has been estimated from these dominating accident sequences by convoluting hazard curves of initiating event and fragility curves of the safety systems. (author)

  5. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  6. Seismic history of the Maltese islands and considerations on seismic risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Galea

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A historical catalogue of felt earthquakes in the Maltese islands has been compiled dating back to 1530. Although no fatalities were officially recorded during this time as a direct consequence of earthquake effects, serious damage to buildings occurred several times. In the catalogue time period, the islands experienced EMS-98 intensity VII-VIII once (11 January 1693 and intensity VII, or VI-VII five times. The northern segment of the Hyblean-Malta plateau is the source region which appears to pose the greatest threat, although large Greek events and lower magnitude Sicily Channel events also produced damage. Estimates of return periods for intensity ?V are presented, and it is shown that expected peak ground accelerations justify the implementation of, at least, minimum anti-seismic provisions. The rapid and continual increase in the local building stock on the densely-populated islands warrants the implementation of an appropriate seismic building code to be enforced.

  7. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  8. Vibration-based damage detection in wind turbine blades using Phase-based Motion Estimation and motion magnification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrafi, Aral; Mao, Zhu; Niezrecki, Christopher; Poozesh, Peyman

    2018-05-01

    Vibration-based Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) techniques are among the most common approaches for structural damage identification. The presence of damage in structures may be identified by monitoring the changes in dynamic behavior subject to external loading, and is typically performed by using experimental modal analysis (EMA) or operational modal analysis (OMA). These tools for SHM normally require a limited number of physically attached transducers (e.g. accelerometers) in order to record the response of the structure for further analysis. Signal conditioners, wires, wireless receivers and a data acquisition system (DAQ) are also typical components of traditional sensing systems used in vibration-based SHM. However, instrumentation of lightweight structures with contact sensors such as accelerometers may induce mass-loading effects, and for large-scale structures, the instrumentation is labor intensive and time consuming. Achieving high spatial measurement resolution for a large-scale structure is not always feasible while working with traditional contact sensors, and there is also the potential for a lack of reliability associated with fixed contact sensors in outliving the life-span of the host structure. Among the state-of-the-art non-contact measurements, digital video cameras are able to rapidly collect high-density spatial information from structures remotely. In this paper, the subtle motions from recorded video (i.e. a sequence of images) are extracted by means of Phase-based Motion Estimation (PME) and the extracted information is used to conduct damage identification on a 2.3-m long Skystream® wind turbine blade (WTB). The PME and phased-based motion magnification approach estimates the structural motion from the captured sequence of images for both a baseline and damaged test cases on a wind turbine blade. Operational deflection shapes of the test articles are also quantified and compared for the baseline and damaged states. In addition

  9. Estimating of two different kinds of forest damage mechanisms in southeastern Finland. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jokinen, J.

    1993-01-01

    Pinus silvestris is a particularly suitable bioindicator, since it is widely distributed and sensitive to many air pollutants. In recent projects we have obtained results which support the so-called nitrogen-sulphur hypothesis. We suggest that the excess of nitrogen compounds like ammonia/ammonium, nitrogen oxides and nitrate together with gaseous sulphur compounds and anthropogenic acids, trigger severe forest damages. The basis of two different kinds of forest damage mechanisms seems to depend on the relationship of N- and S-compounds in ambient air as indicated by the different concentrations of total sulphur and nitrogen in the needles and the relationship thereof. Possible physiological mechanisms by which nitrogen compounds and sulfurcompounds can affect each other (e.g., changes in enzymatic activities) are discussed. (orig./UWA) [de

  10. Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices--How numerical implementation affects the results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed.

  11. Frequency domain fatigue damage estimation methods suitable for deterministic load spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson, A.R.; Patel, M.H. [University Coll., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, London (United Kingdom)

    2000-07-01

    The evaluation of fatigue damage due to load spectra, directly in the frequency domain, is a complex phenomena but with the benefit of significant computation time savings. Various formulae have been suggested but have usually relating to a specific application only. The Dirlik method is the exception and is applicable to general cases of continuous stochastic spectra. This paper describes three approaches for evaluating discrete deterministic load spectra generated by the floating wind turbine model developed the UCL/RAL research project. (Author)

  12. An estimation of core damage frequency of a pressurized water reactor during mid-loop operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, C.C.; Chen, C.T.; Lee, M.

    2004-01-01

    The core damage frequency during mid-loop operation of a Westinghouse designed 3-loop Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) due to loss of Residual Heat Removal (RHR) events was assessed. The assessment considers two types of outages (refueling and drained maintenance), and uses failure data collected specifically for shutdown condition. Event trees were developed for five categories of loss of RHR events. Human actions to mitigate the loss of RHR events was identified and human error probabilities were quantified using HCR and THERP model. The result showed that the core damage frequency due to loss of RHR events during mid-loop operation is 3.1x10 -5 per year. The results also showed that the core damage frequency can be reduced significantly by removing a pressurizer safety valve before entering mid-loop operation. The establishment of reflux cooling, i.e. decay heat removal through steam generator secondary side also plays important role in mitigating the loss of RHR events. (author)

  13. Sensitivity of Reliability Estimates in Partially Damaged RC Structures subject to Earthquakes, using Reduced Hysteretic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.

    The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation.......The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation....

  14. A backward method to estimate the Dai-ichi reactor core damage using radiation exposure in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    PM Udiyani; S Kuntjoro; S Widodo

    2016-01-01

    The Fukushima accident resulted in the melting of the reactor core due to loss of supply of coolant when the reactor stopped from operating conditions. The earthquake and tsunami caused loss of electricity due to the flooding that occurred in the reactor. The absence of the coolant supply after reactor shutdown resulted in heat accumulation, causing the temperature of the fuel to rise beyond its melting point. In the early stages of the accident, operator could not determine the severity of the accident and the percentage of the reactor core damaged. The available data was based on the radiation exposure in the environment that was reported by the authorities. The aim of this paper is to determine the severity of the conditions in the reactor core based on the radiation doses measured in the environment. The method is performed by backward counting based on the measuring radiation exposure and radionuclides releases source term. The calculation was performed by using the PC-COSYMA code. The results showed that the core damage fraction at Dai-ichi Unit 1 was 70%, and the resulting individual effective dose in the exclusion area is 401 mSv, while the core damage fraction at Unit 2 was 30%, and the resulting individual effective dose was 9.1 mSv, while for Unit 3, the core damage fraction was 25% for an individual effective dose of 92.2 mSv. The differences between the results of the calculation for estimation of core damage proposed in this paper with the previously reported results is probably caused by the applied model for assessment, differences in postulations and assumptions, and the incompleteness of the input data. This difference could be reduced by performing calculations and simulations for more varied assumptions and postulations. (author)

  15. Fatigue life estimation of MD36 and MD523 bogies based on damage accumulation and random fatigue theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younesian, Davood; Solhmirzaei, Ali; Gachloo, Alireza

    2009-01-01

    Bogies are one of the multifunctional parts of trains which are extremely subjected to random loads. This type of oscillating and random excitation arises from irregularities of the track including rail surface vertical roughness, rail joints, variance in super-elevation, and also wheel imperfections like wheel flats and unbalancy. Since most of the prementioned sources have random nature, a random based theory should be applied for fatigue life estimation of the bogie frame. Two methods of fatigue life estimation are investigated in this paper. The first approach which is being implemented in time domain is based on the damage accumulation (DA) approach. Using Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm, the rail surface roughness is generated. Finite element (FE) model of the bogie is subjected to the generated random excitation in the first approach and the stress time histories are obtained, and consequently the fatigue life is estimated by using the rain-flow algorithm. In the second approach, the fatigue life is estimated in frequency domain. Power spectral density (PSD) of the stress is obtained by using the FE model of the bogie frame and the fatigue life is estimated using Rayleigh technique in random fatigue theory. A comprehensive parametric study is carried out and effects of different parameters like the train speeds and level of the rail surface vertical roughness on the estimated fatigue life are investigated

  16. Identification of Damage in IR-Structures from Earthquake Records - Optimal Location of Sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Cakmak, A. S.

    A method for localization of structural damage is seismically excited RC-structures using measured acceleration response time series is presented. from measured response from some or all storeys, the two lowest smoothed eigenfrequencies and mode shape coordinates are estimated. these estimates ar...

  17. Antarctic ice sheet thickness estimation using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method with single-station seismic ambient noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We report on a successful application of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (H / V method, generally used to investigate the subsurface velocity structures of the shallow crust, to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet thickness for the first time. Using three-component, five-day long, seismic ambient noise records gathered from more than 60 temporary seismic stations located on the Antarctic ice sheet, the ice thickness measured at each station has comparable accuracy to the Bedmap2 database. Preliminary analysis revealed that 60 out of 65 seismic stations on the ice sheet obtained clear peak frequencies (f0 related to the ice sheet thickness in the H / V spectrum. Thus, assuming that the isotropic ice layer lies atop a high velocity half-space bedrock, the ice sheet thickness can be calculated by a simple approximation formula. About half of the calculated ice sheet thicknesses were consistent with the Bedmap2 ice thickness values. To further improve the reliability of ice thickness measurements, two-type models were built to fit the observed H / V spectrum through non-linear inversion. The two-type models represent the isotropic structures of single- and two-layer ice sheets, and the latter depicts the non-uniform, layered characteristics of the ice sheet widely distributed in Antarctica. The inversion results suggest that the ice thicknesses derived from the two-layer ice models were in good concurrence with the Bedmap2 ice thickness database, and that ice thickness differences between the two were within 300 m at almost all stations. Our results support previous finding that the Antarctic ice sheet is stratified. Extensive data processing indicates that the time length of seismic ambient noise records can be shortened to two hours for reliable ice sheet thickness estimation using the H / V method. This study extends the application fields of the H / V method and provides an effective and independent way to measure

  18. Criterions for fixing regulatory seismic acceleration coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costes, D.

    1988-03-01

    Acceleration coeffficients to be taken into account in seismic areas for calculation of structures are defined in national seismic regulations. Joined to the described qualitative requirements, these coefficients represent a balance between precaution costs and avoided damages, both in terms of material repairing costs and damage to human life. Persons in charge of fixing these coefficients must be informed of corresponding quantitative aspects. Data on seismic motions occurrencies and consequences are gathered here and convoluted to mean damage evaluations. Indications on precaution costs are joined, which shows that currently recommended levels of seismic motions are high relatively to financial profitability, and represent in fact an aethical choice about human life value [fr

  19. A Well-Designed Parameter Estimation Method for Lifetime Prediction of Deteriorating Systems with Both Smooth Degradation and Abrupt Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqiang Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Deteriorating systems, which are subject to both continuous smooth degradation and additional abrupt damages due to a shock process, can be often encountered in engineering. Modeling the degradation evolution and predicting the lifetime of this kind of systems are both interesting and challenging in practice. In this paper, we model the degradation trajectory of the deteriorating system by a random coefficient regression (RCR model with positive jumps, where the RCR part is used to model the continuous smooth degradation of the system and the jump part is used to characterize the abrupt damages due to random shocks. Based on a specified threshold level, the probability density function (PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF of the lifetime can be derived analytically. The unknown parameters associated with the derived lifetime distributions can be estimated via a well-designed parameter estimation procedure on the basis of the available degradation recordings of the deteriorating systems. An illustrative example is finally provided to demonstrate the implementation and superiority of the newly proposed lifetime prediction method. The experimental results reveal that our proposed lifetime prediction method with the dedicated parameter estimation strategy can get more accurate lifetime predictions than the rival model in literature.

  20. Is The Ca + K + Mg/Al Ratio in the Soil Solution a Predictive Tool for Estimating Forest Damage?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeransson, A.; Eldhuset, T. D.

    2001-01-01

    The ratio between (Ca +K +Mg) and Al in nutrient solution has been suggested as a predictive tool for estimating tree growth disturbance. However, the ratio is unspecific in the sense that it is based on several elements which are all essential for plant growth;each of these may be growth-limiting. Furthermore,aluminium retards growth at higher concentrations. Itis therefore difficult to give causal and objective biological explanations for possible growth disturbances. The importance of the proportion of base-cations to N, at a fixed base-cation/Al ratio, is evaluated with regard to growth of Picea abies.The uptake of elements was found to be selective; nutrients were taken up while most Al remained in solution. Biomass partitioning to the roots increased after aluminium addition with low proportions of basecations to nitrogen. We conclude that the low growthrates depend on nutrient limitation in these treatments. Low growth rates in the high proportion experiments may be explained by high internal Alconcentrations. The results strongly suggest that growth rate is not correlated with the ratio in the rooting medium and question the validity of using ratios as predictive tools for estimating forest damage. We suggest that growth limitation of Picea abies in the field may depend on low proportions of base cations to nitrate. It is therefore important to know the nutritional status of the plant material in relation to the growth potential and environmental limitation to be able to predict and estimate forest damage

  1. Wind estimation around the shipwreck of Oriental Star based on field damage surveys and radar observations

    OpenAIRE

    Meng, Zhiyong; Yao, Dan; Bai, Lanqiang; Zheng, Yongguang; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiaoling; Zhao, Kun; Tian, Fuyou; Wang, Mingjun

    2016-01-01

    Based on observational analyses and on-site ground and aerial damage surveys, this work aims to reveal the weather phenomena?especially the wind situation?when Oriental Star capsized in the Yangtze River on June 1, 2015. Results demonstrate that the cruise ship capsized when it encountered strong winds at speeds of at least 31?m?s?1 near the apex of a bow echo embedded in a squall line. As suggested by the fallen trees within a 2-km radius around the wreck location, such strong winds were lik...

  2. Wind estimation around the shipwreck of Oriental Star based on field damage surveys and radar observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Zhiyong; Yao, Dan; Bai, Lanqiang; Zheng, Yongguang; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiaoling; Zhao, Kun; Tian, Fuyou; Wang, Mingjun

    Based on observational analyses and on-site ground and aerial damage surveys, this work aims to reveal the weather phenomena-especially the wind situation-when Oriental Star capsized in the Yangtze River on June 1, 2015. Results demonstrate that the cruise ship capsized when it encountered strong winds at speeds of at least 31 m s -1 near the apex of a bow echo embedded in a squall line. As suggested by the fallen trees within a 2-km radius around the wreck location, such strong winds were likely caused by microburst straight-line wind and/or embedded small vortices, rather than tornadoes.

  3. Towards Coupling of Macroseismic Intensity with Structural Damage Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouteva, Mihaela; Boshnakov, Krasimir

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge on basic data of ground motion acceleration time histories during earthquakes is essential to understanding the earthquake resistant behaviour of structures. Peak and integral ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion values (acceleration, velocity and displacement), measures of the frequency content of ground motion, duration of strong shaking and various intensity measures play important roles in seismic evaluation of existing facilities and design of new systems. Macroseismic intensity is an earthquake measure related to seismic hazard and seismic risk description. Having detailed ideas on the correlations between the earthquake damage potential and macroseismic intensity is an important issue in engineering seismology and earthquake engineering. Reliable earthquake hazard estimation is the major prerequisite to successful disaster risk management. The usage of advanced earthquake engineering approaches for structural response modelling is essential for reliable evaluation of the accumulated damages in the existing buildings and structures due to the history of seismic actions, occurred during their lifetime. Full nonlinear analysis taking into account single event or series of earthquakes and the large set of elaborated damage indices are suitable contemporary tools to cope with this responsible task. This paper presents some results on the correlation between observational damage states, ground motion parameters and selected analytical damage indices. Damage indices are computed on the base of nonlinear time history analysis of test reinforced structure, characterising the building stock of the Mediterranean region designed according the earthquake resistant requirements in mid XX-th century.

  4. Estimation of the seismic hazards of the possible rupture of the Pastores and Venta de Bravo faults in the Acambay grabens, state of Mexico, Mexico, using the Empirical Green's Function Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizawa, O. A.; Lermo, J.; Aguirre, J.

    2003-04-01

    Even though the majority of earthquakes in Mexico and in the world are in direct relation with the movement of tectonic plates, there are less frequent tremors which take place in the continents, within the plates. This is the case with the earthquakes which occur in Mexico along the Neovolcanic Axis. Despite the fact that these quakes in the Neovolcanic Axis are, in general, of small magnitude, there are occassional events of greater magnitude. For instance, in 1912, an earthquake with an approximate magnitude of M=6.9 took place in Acambay, state of Mexico, 80 km. from Mexico City. The reported damage areas for these earthquakes suggest that they were originated in surface faults probably associated with tensional geological structures which exist in the area (grabens). This region stretches along 400 km. between the cities of Mexico and Guadalajara. The faults are normal, extending tens of kilometers, with a dip of up to 80o and vertical differences of several hundred meters. The faults in this part of the country can be classified as "active" or "potentially active", with an important seismic expression. The faulting, volcanism and seismicity manifested in the region studied constitute geological effects of the more recent tectonic activity of the central part of Mexico. The present activity of these faults represent the major part of the natural hazards (geological hazards) for this region, taking account of its high demographic density make it a zone of great vulnerability. We will be primarily interested in two of the faults which constitute the fault system of the Acambay graben, eastern sector of the Mexican Neovolcanic Axis, at approximately 80 km. northwest of Mexico City: the Pastores fault and the Venta de Bravo fault system. We will estimate the resultant seismic movement at the University campus (CU) station, in Mexico DF, utilizing the record of the main earthquake (M=4.0) of Tlaxcoapan, Hgo., of March 18 1998 and formulating the scenario of the

  5. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  6. Comparison of seismic isolation concepts for FBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiojiri, H.; Mazda, T.; Kasai, H.; Kanda, J.N.; Kubo, T.; Madokoro, M.; Shimomura, T.; Nojima, O.

    1989-01-01

    This paper seeks to verify the reliability and effectiveness of seismic isolation for FBR. Some results of the preliminary study of the program are described. Seismic isolation concepts and corresponding seismic isolation devices were selected. Three kinds of seismically-isolated FBR plant concepts were developed by applying promising seismic isolation concepts to the non-isolated FBR plant, and by developing plant component layout plans and building structural designs. Each plant was subjected to seismic response analysis and reduction in the amount of material of components and buildings were estimated for each seismic isolation concepts. Research and development items were evaluated

  7. Seismic fragility capacity of equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iijima, Toru; Abe, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kenichi

    2006-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is an available method to evaluate residual risks of nuclear plants that are designed on definitive seismic conditions. From our preliminary seismic PSA analysis, horizontal shaft pumps are important components that have significant influences on the core damage frequency (CDF). An actual horizontal shaft pump and some kinds of elements were tested to evaluate realistic fragility capacities. Our test results showed that the realistic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump would be at least four times as high as a current value, 1.6 x 9.8 m/s 2 , used for our seismic PSA. We are going to incorporate the fragility capacity data that were obtained from those tests into our seismic PSA analysis, and we expect that the reliability of seismic PSA should increase. (author)

  8. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  9. Estimates of DNA damage by the comet assay in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei (Anura, Eleutherodactylidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Carolina Valencia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to use the Comet assay to assess genetic damage in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei. A DNA diffusion assay was used to evaluate the effectiveness of alkaline, enzymatic and alkaline/enzymatic treatments for lysing E. johnstonei blood cells and to determine the amount of DNA strand breakage associated with apoptosis and necrosis. Cell sensitivity to the mutagens bleomycin (BLM and 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide (4NQO was also assessed using the Comet assay, as was the assay reproducibility. Alkaline treatment did not lyse the cytoplasmic and nuclear membranes of E. johnstonei blood cells, whereas enzymatic digestion with proteinase K (40 !g/mL yielded naked nuclei. The contribution of apoptosis and necrosis (assessed by the DNA diffusion assay to DNA damage was estimated to range from 0% to 8%. BLM and 4NQO induced DNA damage in E. johnstonei blood cells at different concentrations and exposure times. Dose-effect curves with both mutagens were highly reproducible and showed consistently low coefficients of variation (CV < 10%. The results are discussed with regard to the potential use of the modified Comet assay for assessing the exposure of E. johnstonei to herbicides in ecotoxicological studies.

  10. Estimates of DNA damage by the comet assay in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei (Anura, Eleutherodactylidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valencia, Laura Carolina; García, Adriana; Ramírez-Pinilla, Martha Patricia; Fuentes, Jorge Luis

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Comet assay to assess genetic damage in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei. A DNA diffusion assay was used to evaluate the effectiveness of alkaline, enzymatic and alkaline/enzymatic treatments for lysing E. johnstonei blood cells and to determine the amount of DNA strand breakage associated with apoptosis and necrosis. Cell sensitivity to the mutagens bleomycin (BLM) and 4-nitro-quinoline-1-oxide (4NQO) was also assessed using the Comet assay, as was the assay reproducibility. Alkaline treatment did not lyse the cytoplasmic and nuclear membranes of E. johnstonei blood cells, whereas enzymatic digestion with proteinase K (40 μg/mL) yielded naked nuclei. The contribution of apoptosis and necrosis (assessed by the DNA diffusion assay) to DNA damage was estimated to range from 0% to 8%. BLM and 4NQO induced DNA damage in E. johnstonei blood cells at different concentrations and exposure times. Dose-effect curves with both mutagens were highly reproducible and showed consistently low coefficients of variation (CV ≤ 10%). The results are discussed with regard to the potential use of the modified Comet assay for assessing the exposure of E. johnstonei to herbicides in ecotoxicological studies.

  11. Damage estimation of sewer pipe using subtitles of CCTV inspection video

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Kitae; Kim, Byeongcheol; Kim, Taeheon; Seo, Dongwoo

    2017-04-01

    Recent frequent occurrence of urban sinkhole serves as a momentum of the periodic inspection of sewer pipelines. Sewer inspection using a CCTV device needs a lot of time and efforts. Many of previous studies which reduce the laborious tasks are mainly interested in the developments of image processing S/W and exploring H/W. And there has been no attempt to find meaningful information from the existing CCTV images stored by the sewer maintenance manager. This study adopts a cross-correlation based image processing method and extracts sewer inspection device's location data from CCTV images. As a result of the analysis of location-time relation, it show strong correlation between device stand time and the sewer damages. In case of using this method to investigate sewer inspection CCTV images, it will save the investigator's efforts and improve sewer maintenance efficiency and reliability.

  12. Damage mechanisms and estimation of the frequency of leaks of steam generator tubes in German PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, H.

    1992-01-01

    Operating experience of steam generator tubes in German PWRs has shown that so far there have only relatively few cases of damage been registered. The only steam generators with a high failure rate were exchanged in 1983. The material of the affected tubes was Inconel 600. The types of failure that occurred in the late 70's and early 80's were mainly wastage corrosion, which was thought to be the result of phosphate operating. After optimising the water chemistry and changing to ''high AVT'' operating, the failure rate decreased considerably. In total, about 973 of the 193335 tubes that were in operation were plugged because of wall-thinning or leaks. There have been 6 leaks, with the highest leakage volume being 40 liters per hour. 7 refs., 6 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  14. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  15. Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T. J.

    2012-04-01

    consists of the following four main analysis stages: (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to give the mean occurrence rate of earthquake events having an intensity greater than a threshold value, (ii) structural analysis to estimate the global structural response, given a certain value of seismic intensity, (iii) damage analysis, in which fragility functions are used to express the probability that a building component exceeds a damage state, as a function of the global structural response, (iv) loss analysis, in which the overall performance is assessed based on the damage state of all components. This final step gives estimates of the mean annual frequency with which various repair cost levels (or other decision variables) are exceeded. The realisation of this framework does suggest that risk-based seismic design is now possible. However, comparing current code approaches with the proposed PBEE framework, it becomes apparent that mainstream consulting engineers would have to go through a massive learning curve in order to apply the new procedures in practice. With this in mind, it is proposed that simplified loss-based seismic design procedures are a logical means of helping the engineering profession transition from what are largely deterministic seismic design procedures in current codes, to more rational risk-based seismic design methodologies. Examples are provided to illustrate the likely benefits of adopting loss-based seismic design approaches in practice.

  16. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  17. Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

    1995-01-01

    When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

  18. Methodology for seismic PSA of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jirsa, P.

    1999-09-01

    A general methodology is outlined for seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The main objectives of seismic PSA include: description of the course of an event; understanding the most probable failure sequences; gaining insight into the overall probability of reactor core damage; identification of the main seismic risk contributors; identification of the range of peak ground accelerations contributing significantly to the plant risk; and comparison of the seismic risk with risks from other events. The results of seismic PSA are typically compared with those of internal PSA and of PSA of other external events. If the results of internal and external PSA are available, sensitivity studies and cost benefit analyses are performed prior to any decision regarding corrective actions. If the seismic PSA involves analysis of the containment, useful information can be gained regarding potential seismic damage of the containment. (P.A.)

  19. Estimation of the Past and Future Infrastructure Damage Due the Permafrost Evolution Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, D. O.; Chesnokova, I. V.; Morozova, A. V.

    2015-12-01

    The geocryological processes such as thermokarst, frost heaving and fracturing, icing, thermal erosion are the source of immediate danger for the structures. The economic losses during the construction procedures in the permafrost area are linked also with the other geological processes that have the specific character in cold regions. These processes are swamping, desertification, deflation, flooding, mudflows and landslides. Linear transport structures are most vulnerable component of regional and national economy. Because the high length the transport structures have to cross the landscapes with different permafrost conditions that have the different reaction to climate change. The climate warming is favorable for thermokarst and the frost heaving is linked with climate cooling. In result the structure falls in the circumstances that are not predicted in the construction project. Local engineering problems of structure exploitation lead to global risks of sustainable development of regions. Authors developed the database of geocryological damage cases for the last twelve years at the Russian territory. Spatial data have the attributive table that was filled by the published information from various permafrost conference proceedings. The preliminary GIS-analysis of gathered data showed the widespread territorial distribution of the cases of negative consequences of geocryological processes activity. The information about maximum effect from geocryological processes was validated by detailed field investigation along the railways in Yamal and Transbaicalia Regions. Authors expect the expanding of database by similar data from other sectors of Arctic. It is important for analyzing the regional, time and industrial tendencies of geocryological risk evolution. Obtained information could be used in insurance procedures and in information systems of decisions support in different management levels. The investigation was completed with financial support by Russian

  20. Role of seismic PRA in seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.

    1985-01-01

    This paper highlights the important roles that seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) can play in the seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants. If a seismic PRA has been performed for a plant, its results can be utilized to evaluate the seismic capability beyond the safe shutdown event (SSE). Seismic fragilities of key structures and equipment, fragilities of dominant plant damage states and the frequencies of occurrence of these plant damage states are reviewed to establish the seismic safety of the plant beyond the SSE level. Guidelines for seismic margin reviews and upgrading may be developed by first identifying the generic classes of structures and equipment that have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in the completed seismic PRAs, studying the underlying causes for their contribution and examining why certain other items (e.g., piping) have not proved to be high-risk-contributors

  1. Seismic Data Gathering and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Three recent earthquakes in the last seven years have exceeded their design basis earthquake values (so it is implied that damage to SSC’s should have occurred). These seismic events were recorded at North Anna (August 2011, detailed information provided in [Virginia Electric and Power Company Memo]), Fukushima Daichii and Daini (March 2011 [TEPCO 1]), and Kaswazaki-Kariwa (2007, [TEPCO 2]). However, seismic walk downs at some of these plants indicate that very little damage occurred to safety class systems and components due to the seismic motion. This report presents seismic data gathered for two of the three events mentioned above and recommends a path for using that data for two purposes. One purpose is to determine what margins exist in current industry standard seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) tools. The second purpose is the use the data to validated seismic site response tools and SSI tools. The gathered data represents free field soil and in-structure acceleration time histories data. Gathered data also includes elastic and dynamic soil properties and structural drawings. Gathering data and comparing with existing models has potential to identify areas of uncertainty that should be removed from current seismic analysis and SPRA approaches. Removing uncertainty (to the extent possible) from SPRA’s will allow NPP owners to make decisions on where to reduce risk. Once a realistic understanding of seismic response is established for a nuclear power plant (NPP) then decisions on needed protective measures, such as SI, can be made.

  2. A Survey study on design procedure of Seismic Base Isolation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    Base Isolation Systems that is flexible approach to decrease the potential damage. In this ... In addition, we analyze the seismic responses of isolated structures. The seismic ..... Equation 3.7, is examined; it is realized that the inequality ...

  3. Life-cycle cost assessment of seismically base-isolated structures in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Hao; Weng, Dagen; Lu, Xilin; Lu, Liang

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • The life-cycle cost of seismic base-isolated nuclear power plants is modeled. • The change law of life-cycle cost with seismic fortification intensity is studied. • The initial cost of laminated lead rubber bearings can be expressed as the function of volume. • The initial cost of a damper can be expressed as the function of its maximum displacement and tonnage. • The use of base-isolation can greatly reduce the expected damage cost, which leads to the reduction of the life-cycle cost. -- Abstract: Evaluation of seismically base-isolated structural life-cycle cost is the key problem in performance based seismic design. A method is being introduced to address the life-cycle cost of base-isolated reinforced concrete structures in nuclear power plants. Each composition of life-cycle cost is analyzed including the initial construction cost, the isolators cost and the excepted damage cost over life-cycle of the structure. The concept of seismic intensity is being used to estimate the expected damage cost, greatly simplifying the calculation. Moreover, French Cruas nuclear power plant is employed as an example to assess its life-cycle cost, compared to the cost of non-isolated plant at the same time. The results show that the proposed method is efficient and the expected damage cost is enormously reduced because of the application of isolators, which leads to the reduction of the life-cycle cost of nuclear power plants

  4. Benefits of remote sensing technologies in the assessment of seismicity and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, H.

    2005-01-01

    Estimating the likelihood of seismic hazard and the degree of damage, including damage of secondary effects is essential for damage mitigation planning. The present study is an attempt to integrate various data sets as LANDSAT ETM - and satellite radar (ERS) - data and geological and geophysical data to obtain a better understanding of processes influencing the damage intensity of stronger earthquakes. Special attention is given to the mapping of structural features visible on satellite imageries from the area in order to investigate the tectonic setting and to detect surface traces of fracture and fault zones that might influence the contour and degree of seismic shock and earthquake induced secondary effects as soil liquefaction. Special attention is focussed on active, neotectonic features. Linear features visible on remote sensing - data from the test area, thus, were mapped and risk areas delineated using ArcView - Geographic Information System (GIS) - technology. As risk areas were mapped those regions with higher risk of seismic wave amplification due to water saturated surfaces or due to intersecting fault zones guiding seismic waves. The evaluations were compared, correlated and combined with available geologic and geophysics data. The results of this study allow an application for seismic microzonation purposes

  5. Improving seismic crustal models in the Corinth Gulf, Greece and estimating source depth using PL-waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vackář, Jiří; Zahradník, Jiří

    2013-04-01

    A recent shallow earthquake in the Corinth Gulf, Greece (Mw 5.3, January 18, 2010; Sokos et al., Tectonophysics 2012) generated unusual long-period waves (periods > 5 seconds), well recorded at several near-regional stations between the P - and S-wave arrival. The 5-second period, being significantly longer than the source duration, indicates a structural effect. The wave is similar to PL-wave or Pnl-wave, but with shorter periods and observed in much closer distances (ranging from 30 to 200 km). For theoretical description of the observed wave, structural model is required. No existing regional crustal model generates that wave, so we need to find another model, better in terms of the PL-wave existence and strength. We find such models by full waveform inversion using the subset of stations with strong PL-wave. The Discrete Wavenumber method (Bouchon, 1981; Coutant 1989) is used for forward problem and the Neighborhood Algorithm (Sambridge, 1999) for stochastic search (more details in poster by V. Plicka and J. Zahradník). We obtain a suite of models well fitting synthetic seismograms and use some of these models to evaluate dependence of the studied waves on receiver distance and azimuth as well as dependence on source depth. We compare real and synthetic dispersion curves (derived from synthetic seismograms) as an independent validation of found model and discuss limitations of using dispersion curves for these cases. We also relocated the event in the new model. Then we calculate the wavefield by two other methods: modal summation and ray theory to better understand the nature of the PL-wave. Finally, we discuss agreement of found models with published crustal models in the region. The full waveform inversion for structural parameters seems to be powerful tool for improving seismic source modeling in cases we do not have accurate structure model of studied area. We also show that the PL-wave strength has a potential to precise the earthquake depth

  6. Estimation of the core-wide fuel rod damage during a LWR LOCA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattila, L.; Sairanen, R.; Stengaard, J.-O.

    1975-01-01

    The number of fuel rods puncturing during a LWR LOCA must be estimated as a part of the plant radioactivity release analysis. Due to the great number of fuel rods in the core and the great number of contributing parameters, many of them associated with wide uncertainty and/or truly random variability limits, probabilistic methods are well applicable. A succession of computer models developed for this purpose is described together with applications to WWER-440 PWR. Deterministic models are shown to be seriously inadequate and even misleading under certain circumstances. A simple analytical probabilistic model appears to be suitable for many applications. Monte Carlo techniques allow the development of such sophisticated models that errors in the input data presently available probably become dominant in the residual uncertainty of the corewide fuel rod puncture analysis. (author)

  7. Twitter as Information Source for Rapid Damage Estimation after Major Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, Silke; Fohringer, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Natural disasters like earthquakes require a fast response from local authorities. Well trained rescue teams have to be available, equipment and technology has to be ready set up, information have to be directed to the right positions so the head quarter can manage the operation precisely. The main goal is to reach the most affected areas in a minimum of time. But even with the best preparation for these cases, there will always be the uncertainty of what really happened in the affected area. Modern geophysical sensor networks provide high quality data. These measurements, however, are only mapping disjoint values from their respective locations for a limited amount of parameters. Using observations of witnesses represents one approach to enhance measured values from sensors ("humans as sensors"). These observations are increasingly disseminated via social media platforms. These "social sensors" offer several advantages over common sensors, e.g. high mobility, high versatility of captured parameters as well as rapid distribution of information. Moreover, the amount of data offered by social media platforms is quite extensive. We analyze messages distributed via Twitter after major earthquakes to get rapid information on what eye-witnesses report from the epicentral area. We use this information to (a) quickly learn about damage and losses to support fast disaster response and to (b) densify geophysical networks in areas where there is sparse information to gain a more detailed insight on felt intensities. We present a case study from the Mw 7.1 Philippines (Bohol) earthquake that happened on Oct. 15 2013. We extract Twitter messages, so called tweets containing one or more specified keywords from the semantic field of "earthquake" and use them for further analysis. For the time frame of Oct. 15 to Oct 18 we get a data base of in total 50.000 tweets whereof 2900 tweets are geo-localized and 470 have a photo attached. Analyses for both national level and locally for

  8. Creep, fatigue and creep-fatigue damage evaluation and estimation of remaining life of SUS 304 austenitic stainless steel at high temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishino, Seiichi; Sakane, Masao; Ohnami, Masateru

    1986-01-01

    Experimental study was made on the damage evaluation and estimation of remaining life of SUS 304 stainless steel in creep, low-cycle fatigue and creep-fatigue at 873 K in air. Creep, fatigue and creep-fatigue damage curves were drawn by the method proposed by D.A. Woodford and the relations between these damages and non-destructive parameters, i.e., microvickers hardness and quantities obtained from X-ray diffraction, were discussed. From these tests, the following conclusions were obtained. (1) Constant damage lines in the diagram of remaining lives in creep and fatigue could be drawn by changing load levels during the tests. Constant damage lines in creep-fatigue were also made by a linear damage rule using both static creep and fatigue damage curves, which agree well with the experimental data in creep-fatigue. (2) Microvickers hardness and half-value breadth in X-ray diffraction are appropriate parameters to evaluate creep damage but are not proper to evaluate fatigue damage. Particle size and microstrain obtained by X-ray profile analysis are good parameters to evaluate both creep and fatigue damages. (author)

  9. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

    2017-12-01

    While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

  10. Investigation of error estimation method of observational data and comparison method between numerical and observational results toward V and V of seismic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Yoshio; Kawakami, Yoshiaki; Nakajima, Norihiro

    2017-01-01

    The method to estimate errors included in observational data and the method to compare numerical results with observational results are investigated toward the verification and validation (V and V) of a seismic simulation. For the method to estimate errors, 144 literatures for the past 5 years (from the year 2010 to 2014) in the structure engineering field and earthquake engineering field where the description about acceleration data is frequent are surveyed. As a result, it is found that some processes to remove components regarded as errors from observational data are used in about 30% of those literatures. Errors are caused by the resolution, the linearity, the temperature coefficient for sensitivity, the temperature coefficient for zero shift, the transverse sensitivity, the seismometer property, the aliasing, and so on. Those processes can be exploited to estimate errors individually. For the method to compare numerical results with observational results, public materials of ASME V and V Symposium 2012-2015, their references, and above 144 literatures are surveyed. As a result, it is found that six methods have been mainly proposed in existing researches. Evaluating those methods using nine items, advantages and disadvantages for those methods are arranged. The method is not well established so that it is necessary to employ those methods by compensating disadvantages and/or to search for a solution to a novel method. (author)

  11. The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas-Medina, A.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.; Bernabé, M. A.

    2013-11-01

    This work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions throughout the execution of the work. After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission, the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation - Risk-UR). For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle, speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the results of the different working phases. The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers).

  12. Estimation of Sputtering Damages on a Magnetron H- Ion Source Induced by Cs+ and H+ Ions

    CERN Document Server

    Pereira, H; Alessi, J; Kalvas, t

    2013-01-01

    An H− ion source is being developed for CERN’s Linac4 accelerator. A beam current requirement of 80 mA and a reliability above 99% during 1 year with 3 month uninterrupted operation periods are mandatory. To design a low-maintenance long life-time source, it is important to investigate and understand the wear mechanisms. A cesiated plasma discharge ion source, such as the BNL magnetron source, is a good candidate for the Linac4 ion source. However, in the magnetron source operated at BNL, the removal of material from the molybdenum cathode and the stainless steel anode cover plate surfaces is visible after extended operation periods. The observed sputtering traces are shown to result from cesium vapors and hydrogen gas ionized in the extraction region and subsequently accelerated by the extraction field. This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the ionization of cesium and hydrogen by the electron and H− beams in the extraction region of BNL’s magnetron ion source. The respective contributions o...

  13. Simplified rotor load models and fatigue damage estimates for offshore wind turbines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muskulus, M

    2015-02-28

    The aim of rotor load models is to characterize and generate the thrust loads acting on an offshore wind turbine. Ideally, the rotor simulation can be replaced by time series from a model with a few parameters and state variables only. Such models are used extensively in control system design and, as a potentially new application area, structural optimization of support structures. Different rotor load models are here evaluated for a jacket support structure in terms of fatigue lifetimes of relevant structural variables. All models were found to be lacking in accuracy, with differences of more than 20% in fatigue load estimates. The most accurate models were the use of an effective thrust coefficient determined from a regression analysis of dynamic thrust loads, and a novel stochastic model in state-space form. The stochastic model explicitly models the quasi-periodic components obtained from rotational sampling of turbulent fluctuations. Its state variables follow a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Although promising, more work is needed on how to determine the parameters of the stochastic model and before accurate lifetime predictions can be obtained without comprehensive rotor simulations. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimating the short-term economic damages from the Prestige oil spill in the Galician fisheries and tourism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garza-Gil, M. Dolores; Prada-Blanco, Albino; Vazquez-Rodriguez, M. Xose

    2006-01-01

    The Prestige oil spill may be considered as one of the worst in the last years because of the amount of oil spilled (59,000 tons at the moment) and the wide zone affected: almost all the coastline in Galicia (Spanish region with a very important coast fishing and tourist activity) and some points in North Spain and in Southwest France. In this paper, we estimate the short-term economic damages from the Prestige oil spills in the Galician fishing and tourist activities. The economic losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed those items that can be indemnified under the IOPC system. Their magnitude could reach 5 times more than the applicable limit of compensations in the Prestige case. The consequence is net losses from repeated oil spills and internationally accepted incentives to risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons. (author)

  15. Estimating the short-term economic damages from the Prestige oil spill in the Galician fisheries and tourism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garza-Gil, M. Dolores; Prada-Blanco, Albino; Vazquez-Rodriguez, M. Xose [Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Vigo Lagoas-Marcosende, 36310 Vigo (Spain)

    2006-07-01

    The Prestige oil spill may be considered as one of the worst in the last years because of the amount of oil spilled (59,000 tons at the moment) and the wide zone affected: almost all the coastline in Galicia (Spanish region with a very important coast fishing and tourist activity) and some points in North Spain and in Southwest France. In this paper, we estimate the short-term economic damages from the Prestige oil spills in the Galician fishing and tourist activities. The economic losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed those items that can be indemnified under the IOPC system. Their magnitude could reach 5 times more than the applicable limit of compensations in the Prestige case. The consequence is net losses from repeated oil spills and internationally accepted incentives to risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons. (author)

  16. Estimating the epidemiology and quantifying the damages of parental separation in children and adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEIJO MARTINEZ DOLORES

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Parental separation is linked to multiple negative outcomes for children in all spheres of life. A field study was designed to estimate the epidemiology and to quantify the outcomes on the wellbeing of children from separated parents. Thus, data on socio-economic status, psychological adjustment, behavioural disorders, social relations, self-concept, and academic achievement were gathered from 346 children and adolescents, 173 separated parents, and 173 parents from intact families in the paediatric catchment area of Galicia (Spain. The results showed that parental separation had a significant negative impact on the children’s and adolescents’ family income (increasing the probability of falling below the poverty line; psychological adjustment (i.e., higher scores in anxiety, depression, hostility, paranoid ideation and interpersonal alienation; social relations (i.e., less self-control in social relations; higher social withdrawal; self-concept (lower levels of academic, emotional, physical and family self-concept, and academic achievement (lower academic achievement with higher school dropout rates. Moreover, children from separated families had a higher probability of being exposed to gender violence. Epidemiologically, parental separation is associated to the probability of falling below the poverty line 33.9%; being exposed to gender violence 43.2%; and symptoms such as depression, anxiety, hostility, paranoid ideation interpersonal alienation, and social withdrawal i.e., 20, 17, 27, 20, 19%, and 35.5%, respectively. Inversely, self-control in social relations, and academic, emotional, physical, and family self-concept fell to 16, 32, 27, 22%, and 37%, respectively. The interrelationship among these variables and the implications of these results for interventions are discussed.

  17. Estimating the Epidemiology and Quantifying the Damages of Parental Separation in Children and Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seijo, Dolores; Fariña, Francisca; Corras, Tania; Novo, Mercedes; Arce, Ramon

    2016-01-01

    Parental separation is linked to multiple negative outcomes for children in all spheres of life. A field study was designed to estimate the epidemiology and to quantify the outcomes on the wellbeing of children from separated parents. Thus, data on socio-economic status, psychological adjustment, behavioral disorders, social relations, self-concept, and academic achievement were gathered from 346 children and adolescents, 173 separated parents, and 173 parents from intact families in the paediatric catchment area of Galicia (Spain). The results showed that parental separation had a significant negative impact on the children's and adolescents' family income (increasing the probability of falling below the poverty line); psychological adjustment (i.e., higher scores in anxiety, depression, hostility, paranoid ideation, and interpersonal alienation); social relations (i.e., less self-control in social relations; higher social withdrawal); self-concept (lower levels of academic, emotional, physical, and family self-concept), and academic achievement (lower academic achievement with higher school dropout rates). Moreover, children from separated families had a higher probability of being exposed to gender violence. Epidemiologically, parental separation is associated to the probability of falling below the poverty line 33.9%; being exposed to gender violence 43.2%; and symptoms such as depression, anxiety, hostility, paranoid ideation interpersonal alienation, and social withdrawal, i.e., 20, 17, 27, 20, 19, and 35.5%, respectively. Inversely, self-control in social relations, and academic, emotional, physical, and family self-concept fell to 16, 32, 27, 22, and 37%, respectively. The interrelationship among these variables and the implications of these results for interventions are discussed.

  18. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  19. Seismic Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The paper is devoted to researches of influence of seismic actions for industrial and civil buildings and people. The seismic actions bring influence directly on the people (vibration actions, force shocks at earthquakes) or indirectly through various build- ings and the constructions and can be strong (be felt by people) and weak (be fixed by sensing devices). The great number of work is devoted to influence of violent seismic actions (first of all of earthquakes) on people and various constructions. This work is devoted to study weak, but long seismic actions on various buildings and people. There is a need to take into account seismic oscillations, acting on the territory, at construction of various buildings on urbanized territories. Essential influence, except for violent earthquakes, man-caused seismic actions: the explosions, seismic noise, emitted by plant facilities and moving transport, radiation from high-rise buildings and constructions under action of a wind, etc. can exert. Materials on increase of man- caused seismicity in a number of regions in Russia, which earlier were not seismic, are presented in the paper. Along with maps of seismic microzoning maps to be built indicating a variation of amplitude spectra of seismic noise within day, months, years. The presence of an information about amplitudes and frequencies of oscillations from possible earthquakes and man-caused oscillations in concrete regions allows carry- ing out soundly designing and construction of industrial and civil housing projects. The construction of buildings even in not seismically dangerous regions, which have one from resonance frequencies coincident on magnitude to frequency of oscillations, emitted in this place by man-caused objects, can end in failure of these buildings and heaviest consequences for the people. The practical examples of detail of engineering- seismological investigation of large industrial and civil housing projects of Siberia territory (hydro power

  20. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  1. Seismic isolation in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, R.I.; Robinson, W.H.; McVerry, G.H.

    1989-01-01

    Bridges, buildings, and industrial equipment can be given increased protection from earthquake damage by limiting the earthquake attack through seismic isolation. A broad summary of the seismic responses of base-isolated structures is of considerable assistance for their preliminary design. Seismic isolation as already used in New Zealand consists of a flexible base or support combined with some form of energy-dissipating device, usually involving the hysteretic working of steel or lead. This paper presents examples of the New Zealand experience, where seismic isolation has been used for 42 bridges, 3 buildings, a tall chimney, and high-voltage capacitor banks. Additional seismic response factors, which may be important for nuclear power plants, are also discussed briefly

  2. Seismic Applications of Energy Dampers

    OpenAIRE

    Shambhu Sinha

    2004-01-01

    Damping devices based on the operating principle of high velocity fluid flow through orifices have found numerous applications in the shock and vibration isolation of aerospace and defence systems. The study aims to investigate the feasibility of using energy dissipating fluid viscous dampers in structures to protect against seismic loads and to prove analytically and  experimentally that fluid viscous dampers can improve the seismic capacity of a structure by reducing damage and displacement...

  3. Report of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Piping Review Committee. Summary and evaluation of historical strong-motion earthquake seismic response and damage to aboveground industrial piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-04-01

    The primary purpose of this report is to collect in one reference document the observation and experience that has been developed with regard to the seismic behavior of aboveground, building-supported, industrial-type process piping (similar to piping used in nuclear power plants) in strong-motion earthquakes. The report will also contain observations regarding the response of piping in strong-motion experimental tests and appropriate conclusions regarding the behavior of such piping in large earthquakes. Recommendations are included covering the future design of such piping to resist earthquake motion damage based on observed behavior in large earthquakes and simulated shake table testing. Since available detailed data on the behavior of aboveground (building-supported) piping are quite limited, this report will draw heavily on the observations and experiences of experts in the field. In Section 2 of this report, observed earthquake damage to aboveground piping in a number of large-motion earthquakes is summarized. In Section 3, the available experience from strong-motion testing of piping in experimental facilities is summarized. In Section 4 are presented some observations that attempt to explain the observed response of piping to strong-motion excitation from actual earthquakes and shake table testing. Section 5 contains the conclusions based on this study and recommendations regarding the future seismic design of piping based on the observed strong-motion behavior and material developed for the NPC Piping Review Committee. Finally, in Section 6 the references used in this study are presented. It should be understood that the use of the term piping in this report, in general, is limited to piping supported by building structures. It does not include behavior of piping buried in soil media. It is believed that the seismic behavior of buried piping is governed primarily by the deformation of the surrounding soil media and is not dependent on the inertial response

  4. An initial DNA damage and the repair efficiency of UV induces damages estimated by SCGE assay in lymphocytes from occupationally exposed to pesticides and reference group from Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niedzwiedz, W.; Cebulska-Wasilewska, A.; Piperakis, S.M.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the individual susceptibility to UV-C induced DNA damage in lymphocytes of Greece people occupationally exposed to pesticides and from reference group with reported no occupational exposure. We also analyzed if there are any differences in the cellular repair capacity between both groups. Lymphocytes were isolated from fresh blood samples collected in Greece from 50 persons recognized as non-exposed to pesticides and from 50 farmers at the end of the spraying season. The average age in exposed to pesticide and reference group was 42.08 and 42.19, respectively. Frozen lymphocytes were transported in a dry ice into DREB laboratory for DNA damage analysis. The DNA damage was measured with the application of single cell gel electrophoresis method (SCGE technique). Our results show that there was not any statistically significant difference concerning the level of the DNA damage detected in defrosted lymphocytes between exposed and non-exposed group. The photoproducts excision efficiency after exposure to UV-C (6 Jm 2 ) and difference in repair capacity by incubation in present and absent of PHA were also studied. There were no statistically significant differences detected directly after UV irradiation between both investigated groups (p >0.1). However, for group exposed to pesticide the ratio of DNA damage measured right after exposition and two hours later was higher (32.19) comparing to reference group (28.60). It may suggest that in exposed group photoproducts excision efficiency was higher or the rejoining rates of the breaks was lower. The differences between repair efficiency observed in lymphocytes from group exposed and non-exposed to pesticides (with or without stimulation to division) were also statistically insignificant (for Tail Length, Tail DNA and Tail moment parameters - p >0.1). Statistically significant differences in DNA damage repair capacities were observed (for all analyzed parameters) between lymphocytes

  5. Estimation of seismic velocity changes at different depths associated with the 2014 Northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake, Japan ( M W 6.2) by joint interferometric analysis of NIED Hi-net and KiK-net records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawazaki, Kaoru; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Ueno, Tomotake; Shiomi, Katsuhiko

    2016-12-01

    To estimate the seismic velocity changes at different depths associated with a large earthquake, we apply passive image interferometry to two types of seismograms: KiK-net vertical pairs of earthquake records and Hi-net continuous borehole data. We compute the surface/borehole deconvolution waveform (DCW) of seismograms recorded by a KiK-net station and the autocorrelation function (ACF) of ambient noise recorded by a collocated Hi-net station, 26 km from the epicenter of the 2014 Northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake, Japan ( M W 6.2). Because the deeper KiK-net sensor and the Hi-net sensor are collocated at 150 m depth, and another KiK-net sensor is located at the surface directly above the borehole sensors, we can measure shallow (150 m depth) velocity changes separately. The sensitivity of the ACF to the velocity changes in the deeper zone is evaluated by a numerical wave propagation simulation. We detect relative velocity changes of -3.1 and -1.4% in the shallow and deep zones, respectively, within 1 week of the mainshock. The relative velocity changes recover to -1.9 and -1.1%, respectively, during the period between 1 week and 4 months after the mainshock. The observed relative velocity reductions can be attributed to dynamic strain changes due to the strong ground motion, rather than static strain changes due to coseismic deformation by the mainshock. The speed of velocity recovery may be faster in the shallow zone than in the deep zone because the recovery speed is controlled by initial damage in the medium. This recovery feature is analogous to the behavior of slow dynamics observed in rock experiments.

  6. Scaling relationship between corner frequencies and seismic moments of ultra micro earthquakes estimated with coda-wave spectral ratio -the Mponeng mine in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, N.; Kawakata, H.; Murakami, O.; Doi, I.; Yoshimitsu, N.; Nakatani, M.; Yabe, Y.; Naoi, M. M.; Miyakawa, K.; Miyake, H.; Ide, S.; Igarashi, T.; Morema, G.; Pinder, E.; Ogasawara, H.

    2011-12-01

    Scaling relationship between corner frequencies, fc, and seismic moments, Mo is an important clue to understand the seismic source characteristics. Aki (1967) showed that Mo is proportional to fc-3 for large earthquakes (cubic law). Iio (1986) claimed breakdown of the cubic law between fc and Mo for smaller earthquakes (Mw law holds even for micro earthquakes (-1 4) by using high quality data observed at a deep borehole (Abercrombie, 1995; Ogasawara et al., 2001; Hiramatsu et al., 2002; Yamada et al., 2007). In order to clarify the scaling relationship for smaller earthquakes (Mw Africa. We used 4 tri-axial accelerometers of three-component that have a flat response up to 25 kHz. They were installed to be 10 to 30 meters apart from each other at 3,300 meters deep. During the period from 2008/10/14 to 2008/10/30 (17 days), 8,927 events were recorded. We estimated fc and Mo for 60 events (-3 Common practice is using direct waves from adjacent events. However, there were only 5 event pairs with the distance between them less than 20 meters and Mw difference over one. In addition, the observation array is very small (radius less than 30 m), which means that effects of directivity and radiation pattern on direct waves are similar at all stations. Hence, we used spectral ratio of coda waves, since these effects are averaged and will be effectively reduced (Mayeda et al., 2007; Somei et al., 2010). Coda analysis was attempted only for relatively large 20 events (we call "coda events" hereafter) that have coda energy large enough for analysis. The results agree with those of the direct S-wave analysis for the same events, though the latter showed more scattering in fc-Mo trend. So, we combine the results from the both analyses to examine the fc-Mo trend down to very small events. Therefore, we adopted fc and (relative) Mo estimated from coda spectral ratios for coda events, while we adopted them from direct spectra for other events despite of their lower reliability. We

  7. Seismic performance evaluation of an historical concrete deck arch bridge using survey and drawing of the damages, in situ tests, dynamic identification and pushover analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamo, Otello; Russo, Eleonora; Lodolo, Fabio

    2017-07-01

    The paper describes the performance evaluation of a retrofit historical multi-span (RC) deck arch bridge analyzed with in situ tests, dynamic identification and FEM analysis. The peculiarity of this case study lies in the structural typology of "San Felice" bridge, an historical concrete arch bridge built in the early 20th century, a quite uncommon feature in Italy. The preservation and retrofit of historic cultural heritage and infrastructures has been carefully analyzed in the international codes governing seismic response. A complete survey of the bridge was carried out prior to sketching a drawing of the existing bridge. Subsequently, the study consists in four steps: material investigation and dynamic vibration tests, FEM analysis and calibration, retrofit assessment, pushover analysis. The aim is to define an innovative approach to calibrate the FEM analysis through modern experimental investigations capable of taking structural deterioration into account, and to offer an appropriate and cost-effective retrofitting strategy.

  8. A random field model for the estimation of seismic hazard. Final report for the period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, S.

    1991-02-01

    The general theory of stationary random functions is utilized to assess the seismic hazard associated with a linearly extending seismic source. The past earthquake occurrence data associated with a portion of the North Anatolian fault are used to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed model. 18 refs, figs and tabs

  9. A random field model for the estimation of seismic hazard. Final report for the period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yucemen, S [Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara (Turkey). Dept. of Statistics

    1991-02-01

    The general theory of stationary random functions is utilized to assess the seismic hazard associated with a linearly extending seismic source. The past earthquake occurrence data associated with a portion of the North Anatolian fault are used to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed model. 18 refs, figs and tabs.

  10. Using Seismic Interferometry to Investigate Seismic Swarms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzel, E.; Morency, C.; Templeton, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity provides a direct means of measuring the physical characteristics of active tectonic features such as fault zones. Hundreds of small earthquakes often occur along a fault during a seismic swarm. This seismicity helps define the tectonically active region. When processed using novel geophysical techniques, we can isolate the energy sensitive to the fault, itself. Here we focus on two methods of seismic interferometry, ambient noise correlation (ANC) and the virtual seismometer method (VSM). ANC is based on the observation that the Earth's background noise includes coherent energy, which can be recovered by observing over long time periods and allowing the incoherent energy to cancel out. The cross correlation of ambient noise between a pair of stations results in a waveform that is identical to the seismogram that would result if an impulsive source located at one of the stations was recorded at the other, the Green function (GF). The calculation of the GF is often stable after a few weeks of continuous data correlation, any perturbations to the GF after that point are directly related to changes in the subsurface and can be used for 4D monitoring.VSM is a style of seismic interferometry that provides fast, precise, high frequency estimates of the Green's function (GF) between earthquakes. VSM illuminates the subsurface precisely where the pressures are changing and has the potential to image the evolution of seismicity over time, including changes in the style of faulting. With hundreds of earthquakes, we can calculate thousands of waveforms. At the same time, VSM collapses the computational domain, often by 2-3 orders of magnitude. This allows us to do high frequency 3D modeling in the fault region. Using data from a swarm of earthquakes near the Salton Sea, we demonstrate the power of these techniques, illustrating our ability to scale from the far field, where sources are well separated, to the near field where their locations fall within each other

  11. Development of Vertical Cable Seismic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asakawa, E.; Murakami, F.; Sekino, Y.; Okamoto, T.; Ishikawa, K.; Tsukahara, H.; Shimura, T.

    2011-12-01

    In 2009, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) started the survey system development for Hydrothermal deposit. We proposed the Vertical Cable Seismic (VCS), the reflection seismic survey with vertical cable above seabottom. VCS has the following advantages for hydrothermal deposit survey. (1) VCS is an efficient high-resolution 3D seismic survey in limited area. (2) It achieves high-resolution image because the sensors are closely located to the target. (3) It avoids the coupling problems between sensor and seabottom that cause serious damage of seismic data quality. (4) Because of autonomous recording system on sea floor, various types of marine source are applicable with VCS such as sea-surface source (GI gun etc.) , deep-towed or ocean bottom source. Our first experiment of 2D/3D VCS surveys has been carried out in Lake Biwa, JAPAN, in November 2009. The 2D VCS data processing follows the walk-away VSP, including wave field separation and depth migration. Seismic Interferometry technique is also applied. The results give much clearer image than the conventional surface seismic. Prestack depth migration is applied to 3D data to obtain good quality 3D depth volume. Seismic Interferometry technique is applied to obtain the high resolution image in the very shallow zone. Based on the feasibility study, we have developed the autonomous recording VCS system and carried out the trial experiment in actual ocean at the water depth of about 400m to establish the procedures of deployment/recovery and to examine the VC position or fluctuation at seabottom. The result shows that the VC position is estimated with sufficient accuracy and very little fluctuation is observed. Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo took the research cruise NT11-02 on JAMSTEC R/V Natsushima in February, 2011. In the cruise NT11-02, JGI carried out the second VCS survey using the autonomous VCS recording system with the deep towed source provided by

  12. Lifetime estimates of a fusion reactor first wall by linear damage summation and strain range partitioning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, K.C.; Grossbeck, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized model of a first wall made of 20% cold-worked steel was examined for neutron wall loadings ranging from 2 to 5 MW/m 2 . A spectrum of simplified on-off duty cycles was assumed with a 95% burn time. Independent evaluations of cyclic lifetimes were based on two methods: the method of linear damage summation currently being employed for use in ASME high-temperature design Code Case N-47 and that of strain range partitioning being studied for inclusion in the design code. An important point is that the latter method can incorporate a known decrease in ductility for materials subject to irradiation as a parameter, so low-cycle fatigue behavior can be estimated for irradiated material. Lifetimes predicted by the two methods agree reasonably well despite their diversity in concept. Lack of high-cycle fatigue data for the material tested at temperatures within the range of our interest precludes making conclusions on the accuracy of the predicted results, but such data are forthcoming. The analysis includes stress relaxation due to thermal and irradiation-induced creep. Reduced ductility values from irradiations that simulate the environment of the first wall of a fusion reactor were used to estimate the lifetime of the first wall under irradiation. These results indicate that 20% cold-worked type 316 stainless steel could be used as a first-wall material meeting a 8 to 10 MW-year/m 2 lifetime goal for a neutron wall loading of about 2 MW-year/m 2 and a maximum temperature of about 500 0 C

  13. On an outline of investigation results of earthquake damage estimation for Akita prefecture; Akitaken jishin higai sotei chosa kekka no gaiyo ni tsuite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nogoshi, M [Akita University, Akita (Japan). College of Education

    1997-05-27

    This paper reports an outline of investigation results of earthquake damage estimation carried out in Akita Prefecture. The basic policy for this investigation consists of the following: (1) an indication on existence of a blank area in the Akita off-coast earthquake shall be viewed so importantly that a fault model is set to estimate damages; (2) because most of the earthquakes in history of Akita Prefecture are inland earthquakes with magnitude of about M=7, four earthquakes in the past shall be adopted as the set model; and (3) the central Sea of Japan earthquake in 1983 was an earthquake occurred in the Sea of Japan side and caused a great deal of damages to Akita Prefecture, and its epicenter model and damages were investigated in detail, hence these data shall be utilized in verifying the procedure and method for estimating damages studied in the present investigation. This paper reports finally estimated human damages. With an assumed earthquake as strong as the Tencho earthquake in the year of 830, more than 1000 deaths will occur in the city of Akita; with an earthquake in the scale of the Noshiro earthquake in 1694, more than 50 deaths will be counted in the city of Noshiro; one as strong as the Rikuu earthquake in 1896 will cause about 300 deaths in the cities of Yokote and Omagari, respectively; one with the scale of the 1914 Goushu earthquake will result in about 300 people to be killed in the city of Omagari and about 200 people in the city of Yuzawa; and an earthquake estimated to occur in the blank area off the Akita coast will force 33% of the residents of the Kisakata town to be evacuated from their homes. 1 fig.

  14. Seismic failure modes and seismic safety of Hardfill dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Xiong

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on microscopic damage theory and the finite element method, and using the Weibull distribution to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials, the seismic response of a typical Hardfill dam was analyzed through numerical simulation during the earthquakes with intensities of 8 degrees and even greater. The seismic failure modes and failure mechanism of the dam were explored as well. Numerical results show that the Hardfill dam remains at a low stress level and undamaged or slightly damaged during an earthquake with an intensity of 8 degrees. During overload earthquakes, tensile cracks occur at the dam surfaces and extend to inside the dam body, and the upstream dam body experiences more serious damage than the downstream dam body. Therefore, under the seismic conditions, the failure pattern of the Hardfill dam is the tensile fracture of the upstream regions and the dam toe. Compared with traditional gravity dams, Hardfill dams have better seismic performance and greater seismic safety.

  15. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  16. Fatigue damage estimation in non-linear systems using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    For non-linear systems the estimation of fatigue damage under stochastic loadings can be rather time-consuming. Usually Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is applied, but the coefficient-of-variation (COV) can be large if only a small set of simulations can be done due to otherwise excessive CPU time...

  17. Strong intermediate-depth Vreancea earthquakes: Damage capacity in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kouteva-Guentcheva, M.P.; Paskaleva, I.P.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-08-01

    The sustainable development of the society depends not only on a reasonable policy for economical growth but also on the reasonable management of natural risks. The regional earthquake danger due to the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes dominates the hazard of NE Bulgaria. These quakes have particularly long-period and far-reaching effects, causing damages at large epicentral distances. Vrancea events energy attenuates considerably less rapidly than that of the wave field radiated by the seismically active zones in Bulgaria. The available strong motion records at Russe, NE Bulgaria, due to both Vrancea events - August 30, 1986 and May 30, 1990 show higher seismic response spectra amplitudes for periods up to 0.6 s for the horizontal components, compared to the values given in the Bulgarian Code and Eurocode 8. A neo-deterministic analytical procedure which models the wavefield generated by a realistic earthquake source, as it propagates through a laterally varying anelastic medium, is applied to obtain the seismic loading at Russe. After proper validation, using the few available data and parametric analyses, from the synthesized seismic signals damage capacity of selected scenario Vrancea quakes is estimated and compared with available capacity curves for some reinforced concrete and masonry structures, representative of the Balkan Region. The performed modelling has shown that the earthquake focal mechanisms control the seismic loading much more than the local geology, and that the site response should be analyzed by considering the whole thickness of sediments until the bedrock, and not only the topmost 30 m. (author)

  18. Seismic fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems including the impact of differential ground subsidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pineda Porras, Omar Andrey [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ordaz, Mario [UNAM, MEXICO CITY

    2009-01-01

    Though Differential Ground Subsidence (DGS) impacts the seismic response of segmented buried pipelines augmenting their vulnerability, fragility formulations to estimate repair rates under such condition are not available in the literature. Physical models to estimate pipeline seismic damage considering other cases of permanent ground subsidence (e.g. faulting, tectonic uplift, liquefaction, and landslides) have been extensively reported, not being the case of DGS. The refinement of the study of two important phenomena in Mexico City - the 1985 Michoacan earthquake scenario and the sinking of the city due to ground subsidence - has contributed to the analysis of the interrelation of pipeline damage, ground motion intensity, and DGS; from the analysis of the 48-inch pipeline network of the Mexico City's Water System, fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems for two DGS levels are proposed. The novel parameter PGV{sup 2}/PGA, being PGV peak ground velocity and PGA peak ground acceleration, has been used as seismic parameter in these formulations, since it has shown better correlation to pipeline damage than PGV alone according to previous studies. By comparing the proposed fragilities, it is concluded that a change in the DGS level (from Low-Medium to High) could increase the pipeline repair rates (number of repairs per kilometer) by factors ranging from 1.3 to 2.0; being the higher the seismic intensity the lower the factor.

  19. Radiation damage prediction system using damage function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Yoshihisa; Mori, Seiji

    1979-01-01

    The irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was investigated. This irradiation damage analysis system consists of the following three processes, the unfolding of a damage function, the calculation of the neutron flux spectrum of the object of damage analysis and the estimation of irradiation effect of the object of damage analysis. The damage function is calculated by applying the SAND-2 code. The ANISN and DOT3, 5 codes are used to calculate neutron flux. The neutron radiation and the allowable time of reactor operation can be estimated based on these calculations of the damage function and neutron flux. The flow diagram of the process of analyzing irradiation damage by a damage function and the flow diagram of SAND-2 code are presented, and the analytical code for estimating damage, which is determined with a damage function and a neutron spectrum, is explained. The application of the irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was carried out to the core support structure of a fast breeder reactor for the damage estimation and the uncertainty evaluation. The fundamental analytical conditions and the analytical model for this work are presented, then the irradiation data for SUS304, the initial estimated values of a damage function, the error analysis for a damage function and the analytical results are explained concerning the computation of a damage function for 10% total elongation. Concerning the damage estimation of FBR core support structure, the standard and lower limiting values of damage, the permissible neutron flux and the allowable years of reactor operation are presented and were evaluated. (Nakai, Y.)

  20. Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pandey, Mahesh D.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the

  1. Modeling of the fatigue damage accumulation processes in the material of NPP design units under thermomechanical unstationary effects. Estimation of spent life and forecast of residual life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriushin, A.I.; Korotkikh, Yu.G.; Gorodov, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The estimation problems of spent life and forecast of residual life of NPP equipment design units, operated at unstationary thermal force loads are considered. These loads are, as a rule, unregular and cause rotation of main stress tensor platforms of the most loaded zones of structural elements and viscoelastic plastic deformation of material in the places of stresses concentrations. The existing engineering approaches to the damages accumulation processes calculation in the material of structural units, their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. For the processes of fatigue damages accumulation a model is proposed, which allows to take into account the unregular pattern of deformation multiaxiality of stressed state, rotation of main platforms, non-linear summation of damages at the loading mode change. The model in based on the equations of damaged medium mechanics, including the equations of viscoplastic deformation of the material and evolutionary equations of damages accumulation. The algorithms of spent life estimation and residual life forecast of the controlled equipment and systems zones are made on the bases of the given model by the known real history of loading, which is determined by real model of NPP operation. The results of numerical experiments on the basis of given model for various processes of thermal force loads and their comparison with experimental results are presented. (author)

  2. Evaluation of Seismic Hazards at California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, M. K.

    2005-12-01

    The California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) has responsibility for design, construction, and maintenance of approximately 12,000 state bridges. CALTRANS also provides oversight for similar activities for 12,200 bridges owned by local agencies throughout the state. California is subjected to a M6 or greater seismic event every few years. Recent earthquakes include the 1971 Mw6.6 San Fernando earthquake which struck north of Los Angeles and prompted engineers to begin retrofitting existing bridges and re-examine the way bridges are detailed to improve their response to earthquakes, the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake which destroyed the Cypress Freeway and damaged the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, and the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake in the Los Angeles area which heavily damaged four major freeways. Since CALTRANS' seismic performance goal is to ensure life-safety needs are met for the traveling public during an earthquake, estimating earthquake magnitude, peak bedrock acceleration, and determining if special seismic considerationsare needed at specific bridge sites are critical. CALTRANS is currently developing a fourth generation seismic hazard map to be used for estimating these parameters. A deterministic approach has been used to develop this map. Late-Quaternary-age faults are defined as the expected seismic sources. Caltrans requires site-specific studies to determine potential for liquefaction, seismically induced landslides, and surface fault rupture. If potential for one of these seismic hazards exists, the hazard is mitigated by avoidance, removal, or accommodated through design. The action taken, while complying with the Department's "no collapse" requirement, depends upon many factors, including cost.

  3. Seismic fragility analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostov, Marin

    2000-01-01

    In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

  4. Seismic detection of tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatom, F. B.

    1993-01-01

    Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

  5. Evaluating Seismic Activity in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    map is constructed from which seismic risks in a given sector ... troyed (10, 11) and the people of Eritrea remember these years ... terms of damage caused to man-made structures; they refer to .... walls of a well designed modern building were deta- ched from ... Although, at present, no theory is satisfactory, the fact remains.

  6. Neuro-fuzzy computing for vibration-based damage localization and severity estimation in an experimental wind turbine blade with superimposed operational effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Simon; Omenzetter, Piotr

    2016-04-01

    Fueled by increasing demand for carbon neutral energy, erections of ever larger wind turbines (WTs), with WT blades (WTBs) with higher flexibilities and lower buckling capacities lead to increasing operation and maintenance costs. This can be counteracted with efficient structural health monitoring (SHM), which allows scheduling maintenance actions according to the structural state and preventing dramatic failures. The present study proposes a novel multi-step approach for vibration-based structural damage localization and severity estimation for application in operating WTs. First, partial autocorrelation coefficients (PACCs) are estimated from vibrational responses. Second, principal component analysis is applied to PACCs from the healthy structure in order to calculate scores. Then, the scores are ranked with respect to their ability to differentiate different damage scenarios. This ranking information is used for constructing hierarchical adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (HANFISs), where cross-validation is used to identify optimal numbers of hierarchy levels. Different HANFISs are created for the purposes of structural damage localization and severity estimation. For demonstrating the applicability of the approach, experimental data are superimposed with signals from numerical simulations to account for characteristics of operational noise. For the physical experiments, a small scale WTB is excited with a domestic fan and damage scenarios are introduced non-destructively by attaching small masses. Numerical simulations are also performed for a representative fully functional small WT operating in turbulent wind. The obtained results are promising for future applications of vibration-based SHM to facilitate improved safety and reliability of WTs at lower costs.

  7. Estimate of radiation damage to low-level electronics of the RF system in the LHC cavities arising from beam gas collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butterworth, A.; Ferrari, A.; Tsoulou, E.; Vlachoudis, V.; Wijnands, T.

    2005-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to estimate the radiation damage induced by high-energy hadrons in the digital electronics of the RF low-level systems in the LHC cavities. High-energy hadrons are generated when the proton beams interact with the residual gas. The contributions from various elements - vacuum chambers, cryogenic cavities, wideband pickups and cryo-module beam tubes - have been considered individually, with each contribution depending on the gas composition and density. The probability of displacement damage and single event effects (mainly single event upsets) is derived for the LHC start-up conditions. (authors)

  8. Estimate of radiation damage to low-level electronics of the RF system in the LHC cavities arising from beam gas collisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterworth, A; Ferrari, A; Tsoulou, E; Vlachoudis, V; Wijnands, T

    2005-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to estimate the radiation damage induced by high-energy hadrons in the digital electronics of the RF low-level systems in the LHC cavities. High-energy hadrons are generated when the proton beams interact with the residual gas. The contributions from various elements-vacuum chambers, cryogenic cavities, wideband pickups and cryomodule beam tubes-have been considered individually, with each contribution depending on the gas composition and density. The probability of displacement damage and single event effects (mainly single event upsets) is derived for the LHC start-up conditions.

  9. Seismic ground motion and hazard assessment of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, southeastern Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amponsah, P.E.; Banoeng-Yakubo, B.K.; Asiedu, D.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-08-01

    The seismic ground motion of the Greater Accra Metropolitan area has been computed and the hazard zones assessed using a deterministic hybrid approach based on the modal summation and finite difference methods. The seismic ground motion along four profiles located in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area has been modelled using the 1939 earthquake of magnitude 6.5(M L ) as the scenario earthquake. Synthetic seismic waveforms from which parameters for engineering design such as peak ground acceleration, velocity and spectral amplifications have been produced along the geological cross sections. From the seismograms computed, the seismic hazard of the metropolis, expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity have been estimated. The peak ground acceleration estimated in the study ranges from 0.14 - 0.57 g and the peak ground velocity from 9.2 - 37.1cms -1 . The presence of low velocity sediments gave rise to high peak values and amplifications. The maximum peak ground accelerations estimated are located in areas with low velocity formations such as colluvium, continental and marine deposits. Areas in the metropolis underlain by unconsolidated sediments have been classified as the maximum damage potential zone and those underlain by highly consolidated geological materials are classified as low damage potential zone. The results of the numerical simulation have been extended to all areas in the metropolis with similar geological formation. (author)

  10. A Survey study on design procedure of Seismic Base Isolation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adding shear walls or braced frames can decrease the potential damage caused by earthquakes.We can isolate the structures from the ground using the Seismic Base Isolation Systems that is flexible approach to decrease the potential damage. In this research we present information on the design procedure of seismic ...

  11. The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

  12. Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

    2017-08-01

    We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

  13. Seismic Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-09-25

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground

  14. Seismic Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-01-01

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground motion at

  15. Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keranen, Katie M.; Weingarten, Matthew

    2018-05-01

    The ability of fluid-generated subsurface stress changes to trigger earthquakes has long been recognized. However, the dramatic rise in the rate of human-induced earthquakes in the past decade has created abundant opportunities to study induced earthquakes and triggering processes. This review briefly summarizes early studies but focuses on results from induced earthquakes during the past 10 years related to fluid injection in petroleum fields. Study of these earthquakes has resulted in insights into physical processes and has identified knowledge gaps and future research directions. Induced earthquakes are challenging to identify using seismological methods, and faults and reefs strongly modulate spatial and temporal patterns of induced seismicity. However, the similarity of induced and natural seismicity provides an effective tool for studying earthquake processes. With continuing development of energy resources, increased interest in carbon sequestration, and construction of large dams, induced seismicity will continue to pose a hazard in coming years.

  16. Damage estimation of subterranean building constructions due to groundwater inundation – the GIS-based model approach GRUWAD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schinke

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis and management of flood risk commonly focuses on surface water floods, because these types are often associated with high economic losses due to damage to buildings and settlements. The rising groundwater as a secondary effect of these floods induces additional damage, particularly in the basements of buildings. Mostly, these losses remain underestimated, because they are difficult to assess, especially for the entire building stock of flood-prone urban areas. For this purpose an appropriate methodology has been developed and lead to a groundwater damage simulation model named GRUWAD. The overall methodology combines various engineering and geoinformatic methods to calculate major damage processes by high groundwater levels. It considers a classification of buildings by building types, synthetic depth-damage functions for groundwater inundation as well as the results of a groundwater-flow model. The modular structure of this procedure can be adapted in the level of detail. Hence, the model allows damage calculations from the local to the regional scale. Among others it can be used to prepare risk maps, for ex-ante analysis of future risks, and to simulate the effects of mitigation measures. Therefore, the model is a multifarious tool for determining urban resilience with respect to high groundwater levels.

  17. Application of seismic refraction tomography for subsurface imaging ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seismic refraction tomography involves the measurement of the travel times of seismic refracted raypaths in order to define an image of seismic velocity in the intervening ground. This technique was used to estimate the depth to the fresh basement, estimate thickness of the weathered basement and to determine the ...

  18. Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Shedlock

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings. The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

  19. Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

    2007-05-01

    The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

  20. Seismic vulnerability assessment of chemical plants through probabilistic neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, T.; Ceravolo, R.; De Stefano, A.; Genovese, C.; Sabia, D.

    2002-01-01

    A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks

  1. Seismic analysis of rack structures for fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mochio, Takashi; Morooka, Akihiko; Ito, Takashi.

    1987-01-01

    A concept of remote maintenance using in large remote cell and rack system structure, which is now under development at high active liquid waste vitrification facility of PNC and West Germany reprocessing plant WA-350, has been adopted to reduce the radiation exposure and increase the operating efficiency. The operation of a highly efficient remote maintenance system sometimes requires the rack structures to be fairly flexible, because of the large number of loose connections and/or gapped supports and the low number of rack frames. This means that there is a possibility of severe damage occurring due to large amplitude responses during a strong earthquake. Therefore, it is very important to estimate the earthquake-resistance capacity of rack structures, including process equipment, to earthquake excitation. This paper presents an outline of a new computer code ''FRACK'' to analyze the nonlinear seismic response of a rack structure developed as a first stage in the rack system seismic research program. (author)

  2. Enhancement of seismic resistance of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu-Sorin Dragomir

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the paper are both seismic instrumentation for damage assessment and enhancing of seismic resistance of buildings. In according with seismic design codes in force the buildings are designed to resist at seismic actions. Due to the time evolution of these design provisions, there are buildings that were designed decades ago, under the less stringent provisions. The conceptual conformation is nowadays provided in all Codes of seismic design. According to the Code of seismic design P100-1:2006 the asymmetric structures do not have an appropriate seismic configuration; they have disadvantageous distribution of volumes, mass and stiffness. Using results of temporary seismic instrumentation the safety condition of the building may be assessed in different phases of work. Based on this method, the strengthening solutions may be identified and the need of seismic joints may be emphasised. All the aforementioned ideas are illustrated through a case study. Therefore it will be analysed the dynamic parameter evolution of an educational building obtained in different periods. Also, structural intervention scenarios to enhance seismic resistance will be presented.

  3. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCann, W R; Nishenko, S P; Sykes, L R; Krause, J

    1979-01-01

    The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.

  4. Promoting seismic retrofit implementation through "nudge": using warranty as a driver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimi, Toshio; Tatano, Hirokazu

    2013-10-01

    This article proposes a new type of warranty policy that applies the "nudge" concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein to encourage homeowners in Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disasters through loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive risk management, the "nudge" approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influence human decision-making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on a warranty for consumer goods than on actuarial value. This article proposes a "warranty for seismic retrofitting" as a "nudge" policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt loss reduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costs in the event of earthquake damage to the house if the homeowner implements seismic retrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived value of seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results show that a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of 33%, and an approximate cost-benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be more economically efficient than an ex ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure of the standard expected utility model to explain homeowners' decisions based on warranty evaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacy of seismic retrofitting and nonanalytical factors such as feelings or trust. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Predicting the seismic performance of typical R/C healthcare facilities: emphasis on hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Huseyin; Frangu, Idlir

    2017-09-01

    Reinforced concrete (RC) type of buildings constitutes an important part of the current building stock in earthquake prone countries such as Albania. Seismic response of structures during a severe earthquake plays a vital role in the extent of structural damage and resulting injuries and losses. In this context, this study evaluates the expected performance of a five-story RC healthcare facility, representative of common practice in Albania, designed according to older codes. The design was based on the code requirements used in this region during the mid-1980s. Non-linear static and dynamic time history analyses were conducted on the structural model using the Zeus NL computer program. The dynamic time history analysis was conducted with a set of ground motions from real earthquakes. The building responses were estimated in global levels. FEMA 356 criteria were used to predict the seismic performance of the building. The structural response measures such as capacity curve and inter-story drift under the set of ground motions and pushover analyses results were compared and detailed seismic performance assessment was done. The main aim of this study is considering the application and methodology for the earthquake performance assessment of existing buildings. The seismic performance of the structural model varied significantly under different ground motions. Results indicate that case study building exhibit inadequate seismic performance under different seismic excitations. In addition, reasons for the poor performance of the building is discussed.

  6. Seismic Symphonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strinna, Elisa; Ferrari, Graziano

    2015-04-01

    The project started in 2008 as a sound installation, a collaboration between an artist, a barrel organ builder and a seismologist. The work differs from other attempts of sound transposition of seismic records. In this case seismic frequencies are not converted automatically into the "sound of the earthquake." However, it has been studied a musical translation system that, based on the organ tonal scale, generates a totally unexpected sequence of sounds which is intended to evoke the emotions aroused by the earthquake. The symphonies proposed in the project have somewhat peculiar origins: they in fact come to life from the translation of graphic tracks into a sound track. The graphic tracks in question are made up by copies of seismograms recorded during some earthquakes that have taken place around the world. Seismograms are translated into music by a sculpture-instrument, half a seismograph and half a barrel organ. The organ plays through holes practiced on paper. Adapting the documents to the instrument score, holes have been drilled on the waves' peaks. The organ covers about three tonal scales, starting from heavy and deep sounds it reaches up to high and jarring notes. The translation of the seismic records is based on a criterion that does match the highest sounds to larger amplitudes with lower ones to minors. Translating the seismogram in the organ score, the larger the amplitude of recorded waves, the more the seismogram covers the full tonal scale played by the barrel organ and the notes arouse an intense emotional response in the listener. Elisa Strinna's Seismic Symphonies installation becomes an unprecedented tool for emotional involvement, through which can be revived the memory of the greatest disasters of over a century of seismic history of the Earth. A bridge between art and science. Seismic Symphonies is also a symbolic inversion: the instrument of the organ is most commonly used in churches, and its sounds are derived from the heavens and

  7. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  8. The seismic investigation of rock properties at the Carwynnen test mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    New, B.M.

    1984-11-01

    The research described follows on from the seismic velocity tomography carried out previously at this site and describes an attempt to map the rock mass in terms of its attenuative properties. This is done by comparison of the spectral distributions of energy within wave packets observed at various distances from numerous source locations. The method was not found sensitive to the variations in natural rock condition at this site as the spectra were dominated by the effects of man-made openings and rock damage which appeared to control the energy input/output transfer function at each location. The seismic shadow caused by the presence of a major void in the area was clearly identified and suggested that similar observations could considerably enhance the value of velocity tomography techniques. Shear and compressional wave velocities are used to obtain estimates of the dynamic elastic properties of the rock mass. Brief recommendations regarding future seismic research are given. (author)

  9. Integrated seismic analysis of the Chalk Group in eastern Denmark—Implications for estimates of maximum palaeo-burial in southwest Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Boldreel, Lars Ole; Hansen, Thomas Mejer

    2011-01-01

    Group. The sonic velocities are consistent with the overall seismic layering, although they show additional fine-scale layering. Integration of gamma and sonic log with porosity data shows that seismic velocity is sensitive to clay content. In intervals near boundaries of the refraction model, moderate......The origin of the topography of southwest Scandinavia is subject to discussion. Analysis of borehole seismic velocity has formed the basis for interpretation of several hundred metres of Neogene uplift in parts of Denmark.Here, refraction seismic data constrain a 7.5km long P-wave velocity model...... of the Chalk Group below the Stevns peninsula, eastern part of the Danish Basin. The model contains four layers in the ~860m thick Chalk Group with mean velocities of 2.2km/s, 2.4km/s, 3.1km/s, and 3.9–4.3km/s. Sonic and gamma wireline log data from two cored boreholes represent the upper ~450m of the Chalk...

  10. Seismic Response of a Half-Scale Masonry Building with Flexible Diaphragms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sweeney, Steven C; Horney, Matthew A; Orton, Sarah L

    2005-01-01

    Unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings constructed on Army installations before the development of modern seismic codes may be susceptible to earthquake damage and therefore could benefit from seismic mitigation measures...

  11. Seismic Level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dirksen, Gerben; Pellissetti, Manuel; Duncan-Whiteman, Paul

    2014-01-01

    For most external events, the calculation of the core damage frequency (CDF) in Level 1 PSA is sufficient to be able to show that the contribution of the event to the plant risk is negligible. However, it is not sufficient to compare the CDF due to the external event to the total plant CDF; instead the Level 1 PSA result for the event should be compared to the large early release frequency (LERF), or alternatively arguments should be given why the CDF from the external event will not contribute mostly to LERF. For seismic events in particular, it can often not be easily excluded that sequences leading to core damage would not also result in LERF. Since the confinement function is one of the most essential functions for Level 2 PSA, special care must be taken of the containment penetrations. For example systems with containment penetrations that are normally closed during operation or are designed to withstand more than the maximum containment pressure are normally screened out in the Level 2 PSA for the containment isolation function, however the possibility of LOCA in such systems due to an earthquake may nevertheless lead to containment bypass. Additionally, the functionality of passive features may be compromised in case of a beyond design earthquake. In the present paper, we present crucial ingredients of a methodology for a Level 2 seismic PSA. This methodology consists of the following steps: Extension of the seismic equipment list (SEL) to include Level 2 PSA relevant systems (e.g. containment isolation system, features for core melt stabilization, hydrogen mitigation systems), Determination of the systems within the existing SEL with increased demands in case of severe accidents, Determination of essential components for which a dedicated fragility analysis needs to be performed. (author)

  12. In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay Region; part III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.; Roth, Edward F.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for estimating the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. In the current program seismic velocities have been measured at 59 locations 1n the San Francisco Bay Region. This report is the third in a series of Open-File Reports and describes the in-situ velocity measurements at locations 35-59. At each location seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill cuttings, undisturbed (cored) samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the sites. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. There is a variety of geologic and seismic data available in the San Francisco Bay Region for use 1n developing the general zoning techniques which can then be applied to other areas. Shear wave velocities 1n near-surface geologic materials are of especial interest for engineering seismology and seismic zonation studies, yet in general, they are difficult to measure because of contamination by compressional waves. A comparison of various in-situ techniques by Warrick (1974) establishes the reliability of the method utilizing a "horizontal traction" source for sites underlain by bay mud and alluvium. Gibbs, and others (1975a) present data from 12 holes and establishes the reliability of the method for sites underlain by a variety of different rock units and suggest extending the measurements to

  13. Study on seismic reliability for foundation grounds and surrounding slopes of nuclear power plants. Proposal of evaluation methodology and integration of seismic reliability evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohtori, Yasuki; Kanatani, Mamoru

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes an evaluation methodology of annual probability of failure for soil structures subjected to earthquakes and integrates the analysis system for seismic reliability of soil structures. The method is based on margin analysis, that evaluates the ground motion level at which structure is damaged. First, ground motion index that is strongly correlated with damage or response of the specific structure, is selected. The ultimate strength in terms of selected ground motion index is then evaluated. Next, variation of soil properties is taken into account for the evaluation of seismic stability of structures. The variation of the safety factor (SF) is evaluated and then the variation is converted into the variation of the specific ground motion index. Finally, the fragility curve is developed and then the annual probability of failure is evaluated combined with seismic hazard curve. The system facilitates the assessment of seismic reliability. A generator of random numbers, dynamic analysis program and stability analysis program are incorporated into one package. Once we define a structural model, distribution of the soil properties, input ground motions and so forth, list of safety factors for each sliding line is obtained. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), point estimation method (PEM) and first order second moment (FOSM) implemented in this system are also introduced. As numerical examples, a ground foundation and a surrounding slope are assessed using the proposed method and the integrated system. (author)

  14. Synthesis of capillary pressure curves from post-stack seismic data with the use of intelligent estimators: A case study from the Iranian part of the South Pars gas field, Persian Gulf Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golsanami, Naser; Kadkhodaie-Ilkhchi, Ali; Erfani, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Capillary pressure curves are important data for reservoir rock typing, analyzing pore throat distribution, determining height above free water level, and reservoir simulation. Laboratory experiments provide accurate data, however they are expensive, time-consuming and discontinuous through the reservoir intervals. The current study focuses on synthesizing artificial capillary pressure (Pc) curves from seismic attributes with the use of artificial intelligent systems including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Fuzzy logic (FL) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFISs). The synthetic capillary pressure curves were achieved by estimating pressure values at six mercury saturation points. These points correspond to mercury filled pore volumes of core samples (Hg-saturation) at 5%, 20%, 35%, 65%, 80%, and 90% saturations. To predict the synthetic Pc curve at each saturation point, various FL, ANFIS and ANN models were constructed. The varying neural network models differ in their training algorithm. Based on the performance function, the most accurately functioning models were selected as the final solvers to do the prediction process at each of the above-mentioned mercury saturation points. The constructed models were then tested at six depth points of the studied well which were already unforeseen by the models. The results show that the Fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy models were not capable of making reliable estimations, while the predictions from the ANN models were satisfyingly trustworthy. The obtained results showed a good agreement between the laboratory derived and synthetic capillary pressure curves. Finally, a 3D seismic cube was captured for which the required attributes were extracted and the capillary pressure cube was estimated by using the developed models. In the next step, the synthesized Pc cube was compared with the seismic cube and an acceptable correspondence was observed.

  15. Seismic Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-30

    were presumed nuclear explosions announced by ERDA. Of the last, 11 were at the Semipalatinsk test site , 2 at the Western Kazakh test site , 2 in Novaya...which will fulfill U.S. ob- ligations that may be incurred under a possible future Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. This report includes 9 contributions...which could assume U.S. seismic-data-management responsibilities in the event that international agreement is reached on a Comprehensive Test Ban

  16. Invertebrate herbivory on floating-leaf macrophytes at the northeast of Argentina: should the damage be taken into account in estimations of plant biomass?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Fedra S; Franceschini, Celeste

    2018-01-01

    We assessed the damage produced by invertebrate herbivores per leaf lamina and per m2 of populations floating-leaf macrophytes of Neotropical wetlands in the growth and decay periods, and assessed if the damage produced by the herbivores should be taken into account in the estimations of plant biomass of these macrophytes or not. The biomass removed per lamina and per m2 was higher during the growth period than in decay period in Nymphoides indica and Hydrocleys nymphoides, while Nymphaea prolifera had low values of herbivory in growth period. During decay period this plant is only present as vegetative propagules. According to the values of biomass removed per m2 of N. indica, underestimation up to 17.69% should be produced in cases that herbivory do not should be taking account to evaluate these plant parameters on this macrophyte. Therefore, for the study of biomass and productivity in the study area, we suggest the use of corrected lamina biomass after estimating the biomass removed by herbivores on N. indica. The values of damage in N. indica emphasize the importance of this macrophyte as a food resource for invertebrate herbivores in the trophic networks of the Neotropical wetlands.

  17. Seismic response of buried pipelines: a state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, T.K.

    1999-01-01

    A state-of-the-art review of the seismic response of buried pipelines is presented. The review includes modeling of soil-pipe system and seismic excitation, methods of response analysis of buried pipelines, seismic behavior of buried pipelines under different parametric variations, seismic stresses at the bends and intersections of network of pipelines. pipe damage in earthquakes and seismic risk analysis of buried pipelines. Based on the review, the future scope of work on the subject is outlined. (orig.)

  18. Interface Control Document for the EMPACT Module that Estimates Electric Power Transmission System Response to EMP-Caused Damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werley, Kenneth Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Mccown, Andrew William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)ory

    2016-06-26

    The EPREP code is designed to evaluate the effects of an Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) on the electric power transmission system. The EPREP code embodies an umbrella framework that allows a user to set up analysis conditions and to examine analysis results. The code links to three major physics/engineering modules. The first module describes the EM wave in space and time. The second module evaluates the damage caused by the wave on specific electric power (EP) transmission system components. The third module evaluates the consequence of the damaged network on its (reduced) ability to provide electric power to meet demand. This third module is the focus of the present paper. The EMPACT code serves as the third module. The EMPACT name denotes EMP effects on Alternating Current Transmission systems. The EMPACT algorithms compute electric power transmission network flow solutions under severely damaged network conditions. Initial solutions are often characterized by unacceptible network conditions including line overloads and bad voltages. The EMPACT code contains algorithms to adjust optimally network parameters to eliminate network problems while minimizing outages. System adjustments include automatically adjusting control equipment (generator V control, variable transformers, and variable shunts), as well as non-automatic control of generator power settings and minimal load shedding. The goal is to evaluate the minimal loss of customer load under equilibrium (steady-state) conditions during peak demand.

  19. Investigations for a change of an excavation damaged zone with time at the 250 m gallery in the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyagi, Kazuhei; Tsusaka, Kimikazu; Kondo, Keiji; Inagaki, Daisuke; Kubota, Kenji; Tokiwa, Tetsuya

    2014-01-01

    The authors have been conducting seismic and resistivity tomography surveys in a gallery of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory in order to investigate an extent of an Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) along time. The objective of this paper is to discuss an influence of fracture distribution and water saturation of a rock mass on variations in seismic velocity and the value of apparent resistivity in an EDZ. Based on the result of seismic tomography survey, the extent of a layer which has low seismic velocity was about 1.0 m from the gallery wall after excavation of the tomography area. From the results of resistivity tomography survey, the value of apparent resistivity has not changed remarkably along time. To investigate a relationship between variations in seismic velocity and density of fracture in the survey area, the authors built a three dimensional fracture model around the tomography area. From the comparison of seismic velocity with density of fracture, seismic velocity decreased almost linearly as the density of fracture increased. Also, it was found that density of fracture in the layer of low seismic velocity could be estimated using a simple numeric model. >From this result, seismic tomography survey and investigation of density of fracture are suitable method for evaluation of an EDZ. (author)

  20. Seismic Barrier Protection of Critical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-14

    structures , earthquake mitigation I. Introduction Damage caused by earthquakes to critical structures such as nuclear power plants, regional hospitals...the seismic power drop in dB to magnitude drop using the seismic moment magnitude scale, Mw. In figures 5 and 6, the V-trench structure as modeled...representing geological media and V-shaped muffler borehole / trench component structures . Bottom: In this simple analysis, the power drop observed

  1. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  2. Combined GPS and seismic monitoring of a 12-story structure in a region of induced seismicity in Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Soliman, M.; Kim, H.; Jaiswal, P.; Saunders, J. K.; Vernon, F.; Zhang, W.

    2017-12-01

    This work focuses on quantifying ground motions and their effects in Oklahoma near the location of the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, where seismicity has been increasing due to wastewater injection related to oil and natural gas production. Much of the building inventory in Oklahoma was constructed before the increase in seismicity and before the implementation of earthquake design and detailing provisions for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. We will use combined GPS/seismic monitoring techniques to measure ground motion in the field and the response of structures to this ground motion. Several Oklahoma State University buildings experienced damage due to the Pawnee earthquake. The USGS Shake Map product estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging from 0.12g to 0.15g at campus locations. We are deploying a high-rate GPS sensor and accelerometer on the roof and another accelerometer at ground level of a 12-story RC structure and at selected field sites in order to collect ambient noise data and nearby seismicity. The longer period recording characteristics of the GPS/seismic system are particularly well adapted to monitoring these large structures in the event of a significant earthquake. Gross characteristics of the structural system are described, which consists of RC columns and RC slabs in all stories. We conducted a preliminary structural analysis including modal analysis and response spectrum analysis based on a finite element (FE) simulation, which indicated that the period associated with the first X-axis bending, first torsional, and first Y-axis bending modes are 2.2 s, 2.1 s, and 1.8 s, respectively. Next, a preliminary analysis was conducted to estimate the range of expected deformation at the roof level for various earthquake excitations. The earthquake analysis shows a maximum roof displacement of 5 and 7 cm in the horizontal directions resulting from earthquake loads with PGA of 0.2g, well above the noise level of the combined GPS/seismic

  3. Seismic Imager Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidick, Erkin; Coste, Keith; Cunningham, J.; Sievers,Michael W.; Agnes, Gregory S.; Polanco, Otto R.; Green, Joseph J.; Cameron, Bruce A.; Redding, David C.; Avouac, Jean Philippe; hide

    2012-01-01

    A concept has been developed for a geostationary seismic imager (GSI), a space telescope in geostationary orbit above the Pacific coast of the Americas that would provide movies of many large earthquakes occurring in the area from Southern Chile to Southern Alaska. The GSI movies would cover a field of view as long as 300 km, at a spatial resolution of 3 to 15 m and a temporal resolution of 1 to 2 Hz, which is sufficient for accurate measurement of surface displacements and photometric changes induced by seismic waves. Computer processing of the movie images would exploit these dynamic changes to accurately measure the rapidly evolving surface waves and surface ruptures as they happen. These measurements would provide key information to advance the understanding of the mechanisms governing earthquake ruptures, and the propagation and arrest of damaging seismic waves. GSI operational strategy is to react to earthquakes detected by ground seismometers, slewing the satellite to point at the epicenters of earthquakes above a certain magnitude. Some of these earthquakes will be foreshocks of larger earthquakes; these will be observed, as the spacecraft would have been pointed in the right direction. This strategy was tested against the historical record for the Pacific coast of the Americas, from 1973 until the present. Based on the seismicity recorded during this time period, a GSI mission with a lifetime of 10 years could have been in position to observe at least 13 (22 on average) earthquakes of magnitude larger than 6, and at least one (2 on average) earthquake of magnitude larger than 7. A GSI would provide data unprecedented in its extent and temporal and spatial resolution. It would provide this data for some of the world's most seismically active regions, and do so better and at a lower cost than could be done with ground-based instrumentation. A GSI would revolutionize the understanding of earthquake dynamics, perhaps leading ultimately to effective warning

  4. The Apollo passive seismic experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

    1979-01-01

    The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

  5. Eastern US seismic hazard characterization update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.B.; Boissonnade, A.C.; Mensing, R.W.; Short, C.M.

    1993-06-01

    In January 1989, LLNL published the results of a multi-year project, funded by NRC, on estimating seismic hazard at nuclear plant sites east of the Rockies. The goal of this study was twofold: to develop a good central estimate (median) of the seismic hazard and to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates of this hazard. In 1989, LLNL was asked by DOE to develop site specific estimates of the seismic hazard at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina as part of the New Production Reactor (NPR) project. For the purpose of the NPR, a complete review of the methodology and of the data acquisition process was performed. Work done under the NPR project has shown that first order improvement in the estimates of the uncertainty (i.e., lower mean hazard values) could be easily achieved by updating the modeling of the seismicity and ground motion attenuation uncertainty. To this effect, NRC sponsored LLNL to perform a reelicitation to update the seismicity and ground motion experts' inputs and to revise methods to combine seismicity and ground motion inputs in the seismic hazard analysis for nuclear power plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains. The objective of the recent study was to include the first order improvements that reflect the latest knowledge in seismicity and ground motion modeling and produce an update of all the hazard results produced in the 1989 study. In particular, it had been demonstrated that eliciting seismicity information in terms of rates of earthquakes rather than a- and b-values, and changing the elicitation format to a one-on-one interview, improved our ability to express the uncertainty of earthquake rates of occurrence at large magnitudes. Thus, NRC sponsored this update study to refine the model of uncertainty, and to re-elicitate of the experts' interpretations of the zonation and seismicity, as well as to reelicitate the ground motion models, based on current state of knowledge

  6. How many holes is too many? A prototype tool for estimating mosquito entry risk into damaged bed nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, James; Ji, Xin; Yin, Shaoman

    2017-08-01

    Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played an integral role in malaria reduction but how insecticide depletion and accumulating physical damage affect ITN performance is poorly understood. More accurate methods are needed to assess damage to bed nets so that they can be designed, deployed and replaced optimally. Video recordings of female Anopheles gambiae in near approach (1-½ cm) to occupied untreated rectangular bed nets in a laboratory study were used to quantify the amount of mosquito activity (appearances over time) around different parts of the net, the per-appearance probability of a mosquito coming close to holes of different sizes (hole encounter) and the per-encounter probability of mosquitoes passing through holes of different sizes (hole passage). Appearance frequency on different parts of the net reflected previously reported patterns: the area of the net under greatest mosquito pressure was the roof, followed by the bottom 30 cm of the sides, followed by the 30 cm area immediately above this, followed by the upper two-thirds of the sides. The ratio of activity in these areas was (respectively) 250:33:5:1. Per-appearance probability of hole encounter on all parts of the net was strongly predicted by a factor combining hole perimeter and area. Per-encounter probability of hole passage, in turn, was strongly predicted by hole width. For a given width, there was a 20% greater risk of passage through holes on the roof than holes on the sides. Appearance, encounter and passage predictors correspond to various mosquito behaviours that have previously been described and are combined into a prototype mosquito entry risk tool that predicts mosquito entry rates for nets with various amounts of damage. Scenarios that use the entry risk tool to test the recommendations of the WHOPES proportionate hole index (pHI) suggest that the pHI hole size categories and failure to account for hole location likely sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions about net

  7. Seismic contracts and agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, N.M.; Krause, V.

    1999-01-01

    Some points to consider regarding management of seismic projects within the Canadian petroleum industry were reviewed. Seismic projects involve the integration of many services. This paper focused on user-provider relationships, the project planning process, competitive bid considerations, the types of agreement used for seismic and their implications, and the impact that certain points of control may have on a company: (1) initial estimate versus actual cost, (2) liability, (3) safety and operational performance, and (4) quality of deliverables. The objective is to drive home the point that in today's environment where companies are forming, merging, or collapsing on a weekly basis , chain of command and accountability are issues that can no longer be dealt with casually. Companies must form business relationships with service providers with a full knowledge of benefits and liabilities of the style of relationship they choose. Diligent and proactive management tends to optimize cost, safety and liability issues, all of which have a bearing on the points of control available to the company

  8. Fatigue damage estimation using irregularity factor. First report, irregularity factor calculations for narrow and broadband random time histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susuki, I.

    1981-11-01

    The results of an analysis of the irregularity factors of stationary and Gaussian random processes which are generated by filtering the output of a pure or a band-limited white noise are presented. An ideal band pass filter, a trapezoidal filter, and a Butterworth type band pass filter were examined. It was found that the values of the irregularity factors were approximately equal among these filters if only the end-slopes were the same rates. As the band width of filters increases, irregularity factors increase monotonically and approach the respective constant values depending on the end-slopes. This implies that the noise characteristics relevant to the fatigue damage such as statistical aspects of the height of the rise and fall or the distribution of the peak values are not changed for a broad band random time history. It was also found that the effect of band limitation of input white noise on irregularity factors is negligibly small.

  9. Semiparametric profile likelihood estimation for continuous outcomes with excess zeros in a random-threshold damage-resistance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, John D; Tsodikov, Alex

    2017-05-30

    Continuous outcome data with a proportion of observations equal to zero (often referred to as semicontinuous data) arise frequently in biomedical studies. Typical approaches involve two-part models, with one part a logistic model for the probability of observing a zero and some parametric continuous distribution for modeling the positive part of the data. We propose a semiparametric model based on a biological system with competing damage manifestation and resistance processes. This allows us to derive a closed-form profile likelihood based on the retro-hazard function, leading to a flexible procedure for modeling continuous data with a point mass at zero. A simulation study is presented to examine the properties of the method in finite samples. We apply the method to a data set consisting of pulmonary capillary hemorrhage area in lab rats subjected to diagnostic ultrasound. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. A preliminary census of engineering activities located in Sicily (Southern Italy) which may "potentially" induce seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloisi, Marco; Briffa, Emanuela; Cannata, Andrea; Cannavò, Flavio; Gambino, Salvatore; Maiolino, Vincenza; Maugeri, Roberto; Palano, Mimmo; Privitera, Eugenio; Scaltrito, Antonio; Spampinato, Salvatore; Ursino, Andrea; Velardita, Rosanna

    2015-04-01

    The seismic events caused by human engineering activities are commonly termed as "triggered" and "induced". This class of earthquakes, though characterized by low-to-moderate magnitude, have significant social and economical implications since they occur close to the engineering activity responsible for triggering/inducing them and can be felt by the inhabitants living nearby, and may even produce damage. One of the first well-documented examples of induced seismicity was observed in 1932 in Algeria, when a shallow magnitude 3.0 earthquake occurred close to the Oued Fodda Dam. By the continuous global improvement of seismic monitoring networks, numerous other examples of human-induced earthquakes have been identified. Induced earthquakes occur at shallow depths and are related to a number of human activities, such as fluid injection under high pressure (e.g. waste-water disposal in deep wells, hydrofracturing activities in enhanced geothermal systems and oil recovery, shale-gas fracking, natural and CO2 gas storage), hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater extraction, deep underground mining, large water impoundments and underground nuclear tests. In Italy, induced/triggered seismicity is suspected to have contributed to the disaster of the Vajont dam in 1963. Despite this suspected case and the presence in the Italian territory of a large amount of engineering activities "capable" of inducing seismicity, no extensive researches on this topic have been conducted to date. Hence, in order to improve knowledge and correctly assess the potential hazard at a specific location in the future, here we started a preliminary study on the entire range of engineering activities currently located in Sicily (Southern Italy) which may "potentially" induce seismicity. To this end, we performed: • a preliminary census of all engineering activities located in the study area by collecting all the useful information coming from available on-line catalogues; • a detailed compilation

  11. Applying of centrifugal chromatography on DEAE cellulose and viscosity measurement to estimate damage caused by gamma irradiation in lymphocyte DNA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olinski, R.

    1977-01-01

    DNA isolated from limphocytes of pig blood was irradiated by γ radiation in the range of 0.5-50 Krads. Changes caused by irradiation (single and double breaks) were determined by using viscosity measurement and centrifugal chromatography on DEAE cellulose. Study of DNA chromatograms showed possibility to apply centrifugal chromatography on DEAE cellulose to estimate changes caused by irradiation. (author)

  12. Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment Guidance Notes : Volume 3. Estimation of Post-Disaster Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction

    OpenAIRE

    Jovel, Roberto J.; Mudahar, Mohinder

    2010-01-01

    This is a guideline for World Bank task team leaders (TTLs) entrusted with the design and execution of assessments to determine disaster impacts as well as post-disaster needs for recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reduction or management. Assessments estimate, first, the short-term government interventions required to initiate recovery and second, the financial requirements to ac...

  13. Seismic instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-06-01

    RFS or Regles Fondamentales de Surete (Basic Safety Rules) applicable to certain types of nuclear facilities lay down requirements with which compliance, for the type of facilities and within the scope of application covered by the RFS, is considered to be equivalent to compliance with technical French regulatory practice. The object of the RFS is to take advantage of standardization in the field of safety, while allowing for technical progress in that field. They are designed to enable the operating utility and contractors to know the rules pertaining to various subjects which are considered to be acceptable by the Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires, or the SCSIN (Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Facilities). These RFS should make safety analysis easier and lead to better understanding between experts and individuals concerned with the problems of nuclear safety. The SCSIN reserves the right to modify, when considered necessary, any RFS and specify, if need be, the terms under which a modification is deemed retroactive. The aim of this RFS is to define the type, location and operating conditions for seismic instrumentation needed to determine promptly the seismic response of nuclear power plants features important to safety to permit comparison of such response with that used as the design basis

  14. First estimates of the potential cost and cost saving of protecting childhood hearing from damage caused by congenital CMV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Eleri J; Gray, Joanne; Luck, Suzanne; Atkinson, Claire; Embleton, Nicholas D; Kadambari, Seilesh; Davis, Adrian; Griffiths, Paul; Sharland, Mike; Berrington, Janet E; Clark, Julia E

    2015-11-01

    Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is an important cause of childhood deafness, which is modifiable if diagnosed within the first month of life. Targeted screening of infants who do not pass their newborn hearing screening tests in England is a feasible approach to identify and treat cases to improve hearing outcome. To conduct a cost analysis of targeted screening and subsequent treatment for cCMV-related sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in an, otherwise, asymptomatic infant, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS). Using data from the newborn hearing screening programme (NHSP) in England and a recent study of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs within the NHSP, we estimate the cost (in UK pounds (£)) to the NHS. The cost of screening (time, swabs and PCR), assessing, treating and following up cases is calculated. The cost per case of preventing hearing deterioration secondary to cCMV with targeted screening is calculated. The cost of identifying, assessing and treating a case of cCMV-related SNHL through targeted cCMV screening is estimated to be £6683. The cost of improving hearing outcome for an infant with cCMV-related SNHL through targeted screening and treatment is estimated at £14 202. The costs of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs integrated within NHSP resulted in an estimate of cost per case that compares favourably with other screening programmes. This could be used in future studies to estimate the full economic value in terms of incremental costs and incremental health benefits. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Estimation of average burnup of damaged fuels loaded in Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors by using the 134Cs/137Cs ratio method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, T.; Sato, S.; Yamamoto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Average burnup of damaged fuels loaded in Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors is estimated, using the 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio method for measured radioactivities of 134 Cs and 137 Cs in contaminated soils within the range of 100 km from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants. As a result, the measured 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio from the contaminated soil is 0.996±0.07 as of March 11, 2011. Based on the 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio method, the estimated burnup of damaged fuels is approximately 17.2±1.5 [GWd/tHM]. It is noted that the numerical results of various calculation codes (SRAC2006/PIJ, SCALE6.0/TRITON, and MVP-BURN) are almost the same evaluation values of 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio with same evaluated nuclear data library (ENDF-B/VII.0). The void fraction effect in depletion calculation has a major impact on 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio compared with the differences between JENDL-4.0 and ENDF-B/VII.0. (authors)

  16. On the modal characteristics of damaging structures subjected to earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlo Ponzo, Felice; Ditommaso, Rocco; Auletta, Gianluca; Iacovino, Chiara; Mossucca, Antonello; Nigro, Antonella; Nigro, Domenico

    2015-04-01

    Structural Health Monitoring, especially for structures located in seismic prone areas, has assumed a meaning of great importance in last years, for the possibility to make a more objective and more rapid estimation of the damage occurred on buildings after a seismic event. In the last years many researchers are working to set-up new methodologies for Non-destructive Damage Evaluation based on the variation of the dynamic behaviour of structures under seismic loads. The NDE methods for damage detection and evaluation can be classified into four levels, according to the specific criteria provided by the Rytter. Each level of identification is correlated with specific information related to monitored structure. In fact, by increasing the level it is possible to obtain more information about the state of the health of the structures, to know if damage occurred on the structures, to quantify and localize the damage and to evaluate its impact on the monitored structure. Several authors discussed on the possibility to use the mode shape curvature to localize damage on structural elements, for example, by applying the curvature-based method to frequency response function instead of mode shape, and demonstrated the potential of this approach by considering real data. Damage detection approach based on dynamic monitoring of structural properties over time has received a considerable attention in recent scientific literature. In earthquake engineering field, the recourse to experimental research is necessary to understand the mechanical behaviour of the various structural and non-structural components. In this paper a new methodology to detect and localize a possible damage occurred on a framed structure after an earthquake is presented and discussed. The main outcomes retrieved from many numerical non linear dynamic models of reinforced concrete framed structures characterized by 3, 5 and 8 floors with different geometric configurations and designed for gravity loads only

  17. Seismic qualification of equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidebrecht, A.C.; Tso, W.K.

    1983-03-01

    This report describes the results of an investigation into the seismic qualification of equipment located in CANDU nuclear power plants. It is particularly concerned with the evaluation of current seismic qualification requirements, the development of a suitable methodology for the seismic qualification of safety systems, and the evaluation of seismic qualification analysis and testing procedures

  18. Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

    2007-05-01

    Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  20. Nonlinear seismic analysis of a thick-walled concrete canyon structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkel, B.V.; Wagenblast, G.R.

    1989-01-01

    Conventional linear seismic analyses of a thick-walled lightly reinforced concrete structure were found to grossly underestimate its seismic capacity. Reasonable estimates of the seismic capacity were obtained by performing approximate nonlinear spectrum analyses along with static collapse evaluations. A nonlinear time history analyses is planned as the final verification of seismic adequacy

  1. Seismic qualification of piping systems based on strain criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, K.; Rangette, A.

    1988-01-01

    Typical LMFBR piping is characterized by elevated temperature and low pressure levels. Taking into account operational conditions only these characteristics demand for and allow flexible piping design. The overestimation of the damage potential of seismic loading by e.g. improper failure criteria usually contradicts operational needs producing the known result of excessive ''snubberism'' and reduction of operational margins. As a matter of fact, due to its transiency seismic loading is essentially secondary provoking the natural design requirement ductility instead of stiffness and rigidity - i.e. exclusion of failure by strain control instead of stress control - and thus avoiding the LMFBR typical competition between operational needs and seismic qualification. The design requirement ductility needs judgement mechanisms, i.e. suitable load descriptions, allowed strain levels and strain evaluation tools. A simplified method for strain range estimation and the underlying basic ideas are roughly outlined. The status of verification and experience gained so far is described. The results achieved suggest that the qualification of piping based on ductility requirement controlled by strain criteria is not out of reach. (author)

  2. Development of seismic hazard analysis in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, T.; Ishii, K.; Ishikawa, Y.; Okumura, T.

    1987-01-01

    In recent years, seismic risk assessment of the nuclear power plant have been conducted increasingly in various countries, particularly in the United States to evaluate probabilistically the safety of existing plants under earthquake loading. The first step of the seismic risk assessment is the seismic hazard analysis, in which the relationship between the maximum earthquake ground motions at the plant site and their annual probability of exceedance, i.e. the seismic hazard curve, is estimated. In this paper, seismic hazard curves are evaluated and examined based on historical earthquake records model, in which seismic sources are modeled with area-sources, for several different sites in Japan. A new evaluation method is also proposed to compute the response spectra of the earthquake ground motions in connection with estimating the probabilistic structural response. Finally the numerical result of probabilistic risk assessment for a base-isolated three story RC structure, in which the frequency of seismic induced structural failure is evaluated combining the seismic hazard analysis, is described briefly

  3. Reliable and Damage-Free Estimation of Resistivity of ZnO Thin Films for Photovoltaic Applications Using Photoluminescence Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Poornima

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work projects photoluminescence (PL as an alternative technique to estimate the order of resistivity of zinc oxide (ZnO thin films. ZnO thin films, deposited using chemical spray pyrolysis (CSP by varying the deposition parameters like solvent, spray rate, pH of precursor, and so forth, have been used for this study. Variation in the deposition conditions has tremendous impact on the luminescence properties as well as resistivity. Two emissions could be recorded for all samples—the near band edge emission (NBE at 380 nm and the deep level emission (DLE at ~500 nm which are competing in nature. It is observed that the ratio of intensities of DLE to NBE (/ can be reduced by controlling oxygen incorporation in the sample. - measurements indicate that restricting oxygen incorporation reduces resistivity considerably. Variation of / and resistivity for samples prepared under different deposition conditions is similar in nature. / was always less than resistivity by an order for all samples. Thus from PL measurements alone, the order of resistivity of the samples can be estimated.

  4. GIS-based seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes often represent very dangerouses natural events in terms of human life and economic losses and their damage effects are amplified by the synchronous occurrence of seismically-induced ground-shaking failures in wide regions around the seismogenic source. In fact, the shaking associated with big earthquakes triggers extensive landsliding, sometimes at distances of more than 100 km from the epicenter. The active tectonics and the geomorphic/morphodinamic pattern of the regions affected by earthquakes contribute to the slopes instability tendency. In fact, earthquake-induced groun-motion loading determines inertial forces activation within slopes that, combined with the intrinsic pre-existing static forces, reduces the slope stability towards its failure. Basically, under zero-shear stress reversals conditions, a catastrophic failure will take place if the earthquake-induced shear displacement exceeds the critical level of undrained shear strength to a value equal to the gravitational shear stress. However, seismic stability analyses carried out for various infinite slopes by using the existing Newmark-like methods reveal that estimated permanent displacements smaller than the critical value should also be regarded as dangerous for the post-earthquake slope safety, in terms of human activities use. Earthquake-induced (often high-speed) landslides are among the most destructive phenomena related to slopes failure during earthquakes. In fact, damage from earthquake-induced landslides (and other ground-failures), sometimes exceeds the buildings/infrastructures damage directly related to ground-shaking for fault breaking. For this matter, several hearthquakes-related slope failures methods have been developed, for the evaluation of the combined hazard types represented by seismically ground-motion landslides. The methodologies of analysis of the engineering seismic risk related to the slopes instability processes is often achieved through the evaluation of the

  5. German seismic regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danisch, Ruediger

    2002-01-01

    Rules and regulations for seismic design in Germany cover the following: seismic design of conventional buildings; and seismic design of nuclear facilities. Safety criteria for NPPs, accident guidelines, and guidelines for PWRs as well as safety standards are cited. Safety standards concerned with NPPs seismic design include basic principles, soil analysis, design of building structures, design of mechanical and electrical components, seismic instrumentation, and measures to be undertaken after the earthquake

  6. Evaluation and considerations about fundamental periods of damaged reinforced concrete buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ditommaso

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is an empirical estimation of the fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings and its variation due to structural and non-structural damage. The 2009 L'Aquila earthquake has highlighted the mismatch between experimental data and code provisions value not only for undamaged buildings but also for the damaged ones. The 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake provided the first opportunity in Italy to estimate the fundamental period of reinforced concrete (RC buildings after a strong seismic sequence. A total of 68 buildings with different characteristics, such as age, height and damage level, have been investigated by performing ambient vibration measurements that provided their fundamental translational period. Four different damage levels were considered according with the definitions by EMS 98 (European Macroseismic Scale, trying to regroup the estimated fundamental periods versus building heights according to damage. The fundamental period of RC buildings estimated for low damage level is equal to the previous relationship obtained in Italy and Europe for undamaged buildings, well below code provisions. When damage levels are higher, the fundamental periods increase, but again with values much lower than those provided by codes. Finally, the authors suggest a possible update of the code formula for the simplified estimation of the fundamental period of vibration for existing RC buildings, taking into account also the inelastic behaviour.

  7. Seismic motions from project Rulison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corp., Alexandria, VA (United States)

    1970-05-15

    In the range from a few to a few hundred km, seismic measurements from the Rulison event are shown and compared with experimentally and analytically derived pre-event estimates. Seismograms, peak accelerations, and response spectra are given along with a description of the associated geologic environment. Techniques used for the pre-event estimates are identified with emphasis on supportive data and on Rulison results. Of particular interest is the close-in seismic frequency content which is expected to contain stronger high frequency components. This higher frequency content translates into stronger accelerations within the first tens of km, which in turn affect safety preparations. Additionally, the local geologic structure at nearby population centers must be considered. Pre-event reverse profile refraction surveys are used to delineate the geology at Rifle, Rulison, Grand Valley, and other sites. The geologic parameters are then used as input to seismic amplification models which deliver estimates of local resonant frequencies. Prediction of such resonances allows improved safety assurance against seismic effects hazards. (author)

  8. Seismic experience in power and industrial facilities as it relates to small magnitude earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swan, S.W.; Horstman, N.G.

    1987-01-01

    The data base on the performance of power and industrial facilities in small magnitude earthquakes (M = 4.0 - 5.5) is potentially very large. In California alone many earthquakes in this magnitude range occur every year, often near industrial areas. In 1986 for example, in northern California alone, there were 76 earthquakes between Richter magnitude 4.0 and 5.5. Experience has shown that the effects of small magnitude earthquakes are seldom significant to well-engineered facilities. (The term well-engineered is here defined to include most modern industrial installations, as well as power plants and substations.) Therefore detailed investigations of small magnitude earthquakes are normally not considered worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to review the tendency toward seismic damage of equipment installations representative of nuclear power plant safety systems. Estimates are made of the thresholds of seismic damage to certain types of equipment in terms of conventional means of measuring the damage potential of an earthquake. The objective is to define thresholds of damage that can be correlated with Richter magnitude. In this manner an earthquake magnitude might be chosen below which damage to nuclear plant safety systems is not considered credible

  9. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  10. Hydrocarbon Induced Seismicity in Northern Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dost, B.; Spetzler, J.; Kraaijpoel, D.; Caccavale, M.

    2015-12-01

    The northern Netherlands has been regarded aseismic until the first earthquakes started in 1986, after more than 25 years of gas production from the one of the largest on-shore gas-fields in the World, the Groningen field, and accompanying smaller gas fields. Due to the shallow sources, at approximately 3 km depth, even small magnitude events cause considerable damage to buildings in the region. Since the largest recorded event in the Groningen field in 2012 with ML= 3,6, more than 30.000 damage claims were received by the mining company. Since 1995 a seismic monitoring network is operational in the region, consisting of 8 200m deep boreholes with 4 levels of 3C 4,5 Hz geophones. The network was designed for a location threshold of ML=1,5 over a 40x 80 km region. Average station separation was 20 km. At the end of 2014, 245 events have been recorded with ML ≥ 1,5, out of a total of 1100. Since 2003 a new mining law is in place in the Netherlands, which requires for each gas field in production a seismic risk analysis. Initially, due to the small number of events for specific fields, a general hazard (PSHA) was calculated for all gas-fields and a maximum magnitude was estimated at ML = 3,9. Since 2003 an increase in the activity rate is observed for the Groningen field, leading to the development of new models and a re-assessment of parameters like the maximum magnitude. More recently these models are extended to seismic risk, where also the fragility of the regional buildings is taken into account. Understanding the earthquake process is essential in taking mitigation measures. Continued research is focused on reducing the uncertainties in the hazard and risk models and is accompanied by an upgrade of the monitoring network. In 2014 a new dense network was designed to monitor the Groningen gas field in this region (30*40 km) with an average separation of 4 km. This allows an improved location threshold (M>0,5) and location accuracy (50-100m). A detailed P- and S

  11. Comparative study of Uranium estimation in drinking water samples of seismically active regions of NW-Himalayas, Himachal Pradesh and SW-Punjab, India using Laser Fluorimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bajwa, B.; Arora, V.; Saini, K. [Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar (India)

    2014-07-01

    The Laser Fluorimetry Technique has been used for the microanalysis of uranium content in drinking water samples collected from different sources like the hand pumps and natural springs of seismically active regions of Chamba and Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, NW-Himalayas and Bathinda and Mansa districts of SW-Punjab, state, India. The purpose of this study was to investigate the uranium concentration levels of ground water being used for drinking purposes and to determine its health effects, if any, to the local population of these regions. In the present study 47 samples of drinking water collected from different villages of the seismic active belt of Chamba and Dharamshala region of Himachal Pradesh, India have been analyzed for chemical and radiological toxicity. Uranium concentration in drinking water sample of study region ranged between 2.7 μgL{sup -1} - 53.9 μgL{sup -1} with an average value of 20.1 μgL{sup -1}. In SW-Punjab, Uranium concentration in 76 drinking water samples has been found to vary between 0.13 μgL{sup -1} and 676 μgL{sup -1} with an average of 90.2 μgL{sup -1}. Data analysis reveals that, 19% samples of NW-Himalayas water have uranium concentration higher than recommended limit of 30 μgL{sup -1} (WHO, 2011) while none of the samples exceeds the threshold of 60 μgL{sup -1} recommended by AERB, DAE, India, 2004. On the other hand, 64% water samples of SW-Punjab have uranium concentration higher than recommended limit of 30 μgL{sup -1} (WHO, 2011) while 39% water samples exceeds the threshold of 60 μgL{sup -1} recommended by AERB, DAE, India, 2004. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  12. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  13. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

  14. Diagnosis of fluorine damage. II. Estimation of fluorine-containing emission by demonstration of the storage of fluorine in the cortex of trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lampadius, F

    1960-01-01

    The thorium titration method was employed for estimating the fluorine content of the cortex. The question as to what fluorine content in the bark is to be regarded as natural has not yet been exactly established. Various indications in the literature lead to the assumption that the storage in the bark of cortex of the trees from an area without fluorine-containing emissions gave <0.2 mg. F/100 ml. distillate in all samples. This fluorine content was initially taken as the limit for the natural fluorine content of the cortex. The investigation of the fluorine content of the cortex extended only to the bark and was calculated in mg. of F in 5 g. of air-dry ground bark. The results show a clear relation between the quantity of fluorine stored in the bark and the distance of the point of sampling from the source of emission and its disposition to it. With high fluorine emission and unfavorable wind conditions in the affected area, fluorine was found in considerable quantities in the bark at places quite a long way from the source of emission. The qualitative estimation of the fluorine content of gassed leaves and needles by the crystal precipitation method, and the quantitative estimation of the fluorine content of gassed bark by the thorium titration method led to results that were in good agreement, so it was possible in this way to define the area in which damage may occur with reliable accuracy.

  15. Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Estimating the willingness to pay to protect coral reefs from potential damage caused by climate change--The evidence from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, William Wei-Chun; Hsu, Shu-Han; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2015-12-30

    Coral reefs constitute the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystem, and provide various goods and services including those related to fisheries, marine tourism, coastal protection, and medicine. However, they are sensitive to climate change and rising temperatures. Taiwan is located in the central part of the world's distribution of coral reefs and has about one third of the coral species in the world. This study estimates the welfare losses associated with the potential damage to coral reefs in Taiwan caused by climate change. The contingent valuation method adopted includes a pre-survey, a face-to-face formal survey, and photo illustrations used to obtain reliable data. Average annual personal willingness to pay is found to be around US$35.75 resulting in a total annual willingness to pay of around US$0.43 billion. These high values demonstrate that coral reefs in Taiwan deserve to be well preserved, which would require a dedicated agency and ocean reserves.

  17. The methodological convention 2,0 for the estimation of environmental costs. An economic evaluation of environmental damages; Methodenkonvention 2.0 zur Schaetzung von Umweltkosten. Oekonomische Bewertung von Umweltschaeden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The reliable estimation of environmental damage costs requires a high degree of transparency of the objectives, assumptions and methods of assessment in order to ensure a correct classification and comparability of the cost factors. The methods convention under consideration aims to develop uniform standards for the technical evaluation of environmental costs and to improve the transparency of the estimates.

  18. PARAMETERS OF KAMCHATKA SEISMICITY IN 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim A. Saltykov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes seismicity of Kamchatka for the period of 2008 and presents 2D distribution of background seismicity parameters calculated from data published in the Regional Catalogue of Kamchatka Earthquakes. Parameters under study are total released seismic energy, seismic activity A10, slope of recurrence graph γ, parameters of RTL, ΔS and Z-function methods, and clustering of earthquakes. Estimations of seismicity are obtained for a region bordered by latitude 50.5–56.5N, longitude 156E–167E, with depths to 300 km. Earthquakes of energy classes not less than 8.5 as per the Fedotov’s classification are considered. The total seismic energy released in 2008 is estimated. According to a function of annual seismic energy distribution, an amount of seismic energy released in 2008 was close to the median level (Fig. 1. Over 2/3 of the total amount of seismic energy released in 2008 resulted from three largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9. About 5 percent of the total number of seismic events are comprised of grouped earthquakes, i.e. aftershocks and swarms. A schematic map of the largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9 and grouped seismic events which occurred in 2008 is given in Fig. 2; their parameters are listed in Table 1. Grouped earthquakes are excluded from the catalogue. A map showing epicenters of independent earthquakes is given in Fig. 3. The slope of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 is based on the Gutenberg-Richter law stating the fundamental property of seismic process. The recurrence graph slope is calculated from continuous exponential distribution of earthquakes by energy classes. Using γ is conditioned by observations that in some cases the slope of the recurrence graph decreases prior to a large earthquake. Activity A10 is calculated from the number of earthquakes N and recurrence graph slope γ. Average slopes of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 for the area under study in 2008 are calculated; our

  19. 5C.07: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE 24-HOUR SODIUM EXCRETION THROUGH SPOT URINE SAMPLES AND ITS APPLICATION VALUE FOR TARGET-ORGAN DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H; Zhao, L; Xi, Y; Sun, N

    2015-06-01

    24-h urine sodium excretion is considered the most reliable method to evaluate the salt intakes. However, this method is cumbersome. So we want to develop formulas to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion using spot urinary samples in Chinese hypertensive population and explore the application value of this method in salt intake assessment and target organ damage. 1. We enrolled 510 cases of hospitalized patients with hypertension, 2/3 of them were arranged randomly to formula group to develop a new formula and the remainings were used to test the performance of the formula. All participants were instructed to collect a 24-h urine sample, a second morning voiding urine sample (SMU), and a post-meridiem urine sample in the late afternoon or early evening, prior to the evening meal (PMU). All samples were sent to measure sodium and creatinine concentration.2. We compared the differences of office blood pressure, 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and left ventricular hypertrophy, vascular stiffness and urine protein among groups of different sodium intake. 24hour sodium excretion formulas was obtained using SMU and PMU respectively, which have good cosistency. The difference between the estimated and measured values in sodium excretion is 12.66mmol/day (SMU) and 9.41mmol/day (PM), to be equal to 0.7 g (SMU) and 0.6 g (PM) salt intake. Comparing with Kawasaki and Tanaka method, the new formula shows the lower degree of deviation, and higher accuracy and precision. Blood pressure of high urinary sodium group is higher than that in low urinary sodium group (P < 0.05). Left ventricular hypertrophy and urinary albumin/creatinine aggravated with the salt intake increase, this has eliminated the influence of other factors. All of morphologies of the relationship between ambulatory arterial stiffness index, pulse wave velocity and carotid intima-media thickness with quartiles of sodium intake resembled a J-shaped curve. In Chinese hypertensive population, the

  20. Study of modern seismic zoning maps' accuracy (case for Eastern Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.U. Artikov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched. It is found that the largest deviations, from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average values of distribution of seismic mode and seismic load parameters, may arise due to the imprecise depth of earthquake sources (H, uncertain estimations of seismic potential (Мmax and slope of recurrence curve (γ. The contribution of such uncertainty factors, like imprecise definition of seismic activity А10, incorrect choice of prevailing type of a motion in the source, using regional laws of attenuation of seismic load intensity in distance instead of local once are substantially small. For Eastern Uzbekistan, it was designed the seismic hazard map with the highest value which takes into account every possible factors of uncertainty in parameters of seismic mode and seismic load.

  1. Fluid injection and induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Michael; Verdon, James

    2016-04-01

    The link between fluid injection, or extraction, and induced seismicity has been observed in reservoirs for many decades. In fact spatial mapping of low magnitude events is routinely used to estimate a stimulated reservoir volume. However, the link between subsurface fluid injection and larger felt seismicity is less clear and has attracted recent interest with a dramatic increase in earthquakes associated with the disposal of oilfield waste fluids. In a few cases, hydraulic fracturing has also been linked to induced seismicity. Much can be learned from past case-studies of induced seismicity so that we can better understand the risks posed. Here we examine 12 case examples and consider in particular controls on maximum event size, lateral event distributions, and event depths. Our results suggest that injection volume is a better control on maximum magnitude than past, natural seismicity in a region. This might, however, simply reflect the lack of baseline monitoring and/or long-term seismic records in certain regions. To address this in the UK, the British Geological Survey is leading the deployment of monitoring arrays in prospective shale gas areas in Lancashire and Yorkshire. In most cases, seismicity is generally located in close vicinity to the injection site. However, in some cases, the nearest events are up to 5km from the injection point. This gives an indication of the minimum radius of influence of such fluid injection projects. The most distant events are never more than 20km from the injection point, perhaps implying a maximum radius of influence. Some events are located in the target reservoir, but most occur below the injection depth. In fact, most events lie in the crystalline basement underlying the sedimentary rocks. This suggests that induced seismicity may not pose a leakage risk for fluid migration back to the surface, as it does not impact caprock integrity. A useful application for microseismic data is to try and forecast induced seismicity

  2. Romanian Data Center: A modern way for seismic monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neagoe, Cristian; Marius Manea, Liviu; Ionescu, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    The main seismic survey of Romania is performed by the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) which operates a real-time digital seismic network. The NIEP real-time network currently consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Mark l4c, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor Kinemetrics). The data are transmitted at the National Data Center (NDC) and Eforie Nord (EFOR) Seismic Observatory. EFOR is the back-up for the NDC and also a monitoring center for the Black Sea tsunami events. NIEP is a data acquisition node for the seismic network of Moldova (FDSN code MD) composed of five seismic stations. NIEP has installed in the northern part of Bulgaria eight seismic stations equipped with broadband sensors and Episensors and nine accelerometers (Episensors) installed in nine districts along the Danube River. All the data are acquired at NIEP for Early Warning System and for primary estimation of the earthquake parameters. The real-time acquisition (RT) and data exchange is done by Antelope software and Seedlink (from Seiscomp3). The real-time data communication is ensured by different types of transmission: GPRS, satellite, radio, Internet and a dedicated line provided by a governmental network. For data processing and analysis at the two data centers Antelope 5.2 TM is being used running on 3 workstations: one from a CentOS platform and two on MacOS. Also a Seiscomp3 server stands as back-up for Antelope 5.2 Both acquisition and analysis of seismic data systems produce information about local and global parameters of earthquakes. In addition, Antelope is used for manual processing (event association, calculation of magnitude, creating a database, sending seismic bulletins, calculation of PGA and PGV, etc.), generating

  3. Estimate of the damage in organs induced by neutrons in three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy; Estimacion del dano en organos inducido por neutrones en radioterapia conformada en 3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benites R, J. L. [Centro Estatal de Cancerologia de Nayarit, Servicio de Seguridad Radiologica, Calzada de la Cruz 118 sur, 63000 Tepic, Nayarit (Mexico); Vega C, H. R. [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Cipres No. 10, Fracc. La Penuela, 98068 Zacatecas (Mexico); Uribe, M. del R., E-mail: jlbenitesr@prodigy.net.mx [Instituto Tecnico Superior de Radiologia, Calle Leon No. 129, 63000 Tepic, Nayarit (Mexico)

    2014-08-15

    By means of Monte Carlo methods was considered the damage in the organs, induced by neutrons, of patients with cancer that receive treatment in modality of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) with lineal accelerator Varian Ix. The objective of this work was to estimate the damage probability in radiotherapy patients, starting from the effective dose by neutrons in the organs and tissues out of the treatment region. For that a three-dimensional mannequin of equivalent tissue of 30 x 100 x 30 cm{sup 3} was modeled and spherical cells were distributed to estimate the Kerma in equivalent tissue and the absorbed dose by neutrons. With the absorbed dose the effective dose was calculated using the weighting factors for the organ type and radiation type. With the effective dose and the damage factors, considered in the ICRP 103, was considered the probability of damage induction in organs. (Author)

  4. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

  5. Estimates of time-dependent fatigue behavior of Type 316 stainless steel subject to irradiation damage in fast breeder and fusion power reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkman, C.R.; Liu, K.C.; Grossbeck, M.L.

    1978-01-01

    Cyclic lives obtained from strain-controlled fatigue tests at 593 0 C of specimens irradiated in the experimental breeder reactor II (EBR-II) to a fluence of 1 to 2.63*10 26 neutrons (n)/m 2 (E>0.1 MeV) were compared with predictions based on the method of strain-range partitioning. It was demonstrated that, when appropriate tensile and creep-rupture ductilities were employed, reasonably good estimates of the influence of hold periods and irradiation damage on the fully reversed fatigue life of Type 316 stainless steel could be made. After applicability of this method was demonstrated, ductility values for 20 percent cold-worked Type 316 stainless steel specimens irradiated in a mixed-spectrum fission reactor were used to estimate fusion reactor first-wall lifetime. The ductility values used were from irradiations that simulate the environment of the first wall of a fusion reactor. Neutron wall loadings ranging from 2 to 5 MW/m 2 were used. 27 refs

  6. Seismic margins and calibration of piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shieh, L.C.; Tsai, N.C.; Yang, M.S.; Wong, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) is a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-funded, multiyear program conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Its objective is to develop a complete, fully coupled analysis procedure for estimating the risk of earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant and to determine major contributors to the state-of-the-art seismic and systems analysis process and explicitly includes the uncertainties in such a process. The results will be used to improve seismic licensing requirements for nuclear power plants. In Phase I of SSMRP, the overall seismic risk assessment methodology was developed and assembled. The application of this methodology to the seismic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) at the Zion Nuclear Power Plant has been documented. This report documents the method deriving response factors. The response factors, which relate design calculated responses to best estimate values, were used in the seismic response determination of piping systems for a simplified seismic probablistic risk assessment. 13 references, 31 figures, 25 tables

  7. Level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment for a PWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Keisuke; Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ichitsuka, Akihiro

    2014-01-01

    In Japan, revised Seismic Design Guidelines for the domestic light water reactors was published on September 19, 2006. These new guidelines have introduced the purpose to confirm that residual risk resulting from earthquake that exceeds the design limit seismic ground motion (Ss) is sufficiently small, based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method, in addition to conventional deterministic design base methodology. In response to this situation, JNES had been working to improve seismic PRA (SPRA) models for individual domestic light water reactors. In case of PWR in Japan, total of 24 plants were grouped into 11 categories to develop individual SPRA model. The new regulatory rules against the Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants' severe accidents occurred on March 11, 2011, are going to be enforced in July 2013 and utilities are necessary to implement additional safety measures to avoid and mitigate severe accident occurrence due to external events such as earthquake and tsunami, by referring to the results of severe accident study including SPRA. In this paper a SPRA model development for a domestic 3-loop PWR plant as part of the above-mentioned 11 categories is described. We paid special attention to how to categorize initiating events that are specific to seismic phenomena and how to confirm the effect of the simultaneous failure probability calculation model for the multiple components on the result of core damage frequency evaluation. Simultaneous failure probability for multiple components has been evaluated by power multiplier method. Then tentative level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been performed by the developed SPSA model with seismic hazard and fragility data. The base case was evaluated under the condition with calculated fragility data and conventional power multiplier. The difference in CDF between the case of conventional power multiplier and that of power multiplier=1 (complete dependence) was estimated to be

  8. Combining Multicomponent Seismic Attributes, New Rock Physics Models, and In Situ Data to Estimate Gas-Hydrate Concentrations in Deep-Water, Near-Seafloor Strata of the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bureau of Economic Geology

    2009-04-30

    The Bureau of Economic Geology was contracted to develop technologies that demonstrate the value of multicomponent seismic technology for evaluating deep-water hydrates across the Green Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico. This report describes the methodologies that were developed to create compressional (P-P) and converted-shear (P-SV) images of near-seafloor geology from four-component ocean-bottom-cable (4C OBC) seismic data and the procedures used to integrate P-P and P-SV seismic attributes with borehole calibration data to estimate hydrate concentration across two study areas spanning 16 and 25 lease blocks (or 144 and 225 square miles), respectively. Approximately 200 km of two-dimensional 4C OBC profiles were processed and analyzed over the course of the 3-year project. The strategies we developed to image near-seafloor geology with 4C OBC data are unique, and the paper describing our methodology was peer-recognized with a Best Paper Award by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists in the first year of the project (2006). Among the valuable research findings demonstrated in this report, the demonstrated ability to image deep-water near-seafloor geology with sub-meter resolution using a standard-frequency (10-200 Hz) air gun array on the sea surface and 4C sensors on the seafloor has been the accomplishment that has received the most accolades from professional peers. Our study found that hydrate is pervasive across the two study areas that were analyzed but exists at low concentrations. Although our joint inversion technique showed that in some limited areas, and in some geologic units across those small areas, hydrates occupied up to 40-percent of the sediment pore space, we found that when hydrate was present, hydrate concentration tended to occupy only 10-percent to 20-percent of the pore volume. We also found that hydrate concentration tended to be greater near the base of the hydrate stability zone than it was within the central part of the stability

  9. Statistical Seismology and Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiampo, K. F.; González, P. J.; Kazemian, J.

    2014-12-01

    While seismicity triggered or induced by natural resources production such as mining or water impoundment in large dams has long been recognized, the recent increase in the unconventional production of oil and gas has been linked to rapid rise in seismicity in many places, including central North America (Ellsworth et al., 2012; Ellsworth, 2013). Worldwide, induced events of M~5 have occurred and, although rare, have resulted in both damage and public concern (Horton, 2012; Keranen et al., 2013). In addition, over the past twenty years, the increase in both number and coverage of seismic stations has resulted in an unprecedented ability to precisely record the magnitude and location of large numbers of small magnitude events. The increase in the number and type of seismic sequences available for detailed study has revealed differences in their statistics that previously difficult to quantify. For example, seismic swarms that produce significant numbers of foreshocks as well as aftershocks have been observed in different tectonic settings, including California, Iceland, and the East Pacific Rise (McGuire et al., 2005; Shearer, 2012; Kazemian et al., 2014). Similarly, smaller events have been observed prior to larger induced events in several occurrences from energy production. The field of statistical seismology has long focused on the question of triggering and the mechanisms responsible (Stein et al., 1992; Hill et al., 1993; Steacy et al., 2005; Parsons, 2005; Main et al., 2006). For example, in most cases the associated stress perturbations are much smaller than the earthquake stress drop, suggesting an inherent sensitivity to relatively small stress changes (Nalbant et al., 2005). Induced seismicity provides the opportunity to investigate triggering and, in particular, the differences between long- and short-range triggering. Here we investigate the statistics of induced seismicity sequences from around the world, including central North America and Spain, and

  10. Seismic intrusion detector system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Hervey L.; Hawley, James G.; Portlock, John M.; Scheibner, James E.

    1976-01-01

    A system for monitoring man-associated seismic movements within a control area including a geophone for generating an electrical signal in response to seismic movement, a bandpass amplifier and threshold detector for eliminating unwanted signals, pulse counting system for counting and storing the number of seismic movements within the area, and a monitoring system operable on command having a variable frequency oscillator generating an audio frequency signal proportional to the number of said seismic movements.

  11. National Seismic Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokes, P.A.

    1982-06-01

    The National Seismic Station was developed to meet the needs of regional or worldwide seismic monitoring of underground nuclear explosions to verify compliance with a nuclear test ban treaty. The Station acquires broadband seismic data and transmits it via satellite to a data center. It is capable of unattended operation for periods of at least a year, and will detect any tampering that could result in the transmission of unauthentic seismic data

  12. Development of Vertical Cable Seismic System for Hydrothermal Deposit Survey (2) - Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asakawa, E.; Murakami, F.; Sekino, Y.; Okamoto, T.; Mikada, H.; Takekawa, J.; Shimura, T.

    2010-12-01

    In 2009, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) started the survey system development for Hydrothermal deposit. We proposed the Vertical Cable Seismic (VCS), the reflection seismic survey with vertical cable above seabottom. VCS has the following advantages for hydrothermal deposit survey. . (1) VCS is an effective high-resolution 3D seismic survey within limited area. (2) It achieves high-resolution image because the sensors are closely located to the target. (3) It avoids the coupling problems between sensor and seabottom that cause serious damage of seismic data quality. (4) Various types of marine source are applicable with VCS such as sea-surface source (air gun, water gun etc.) , deep-towed or ocean bottom sources. (5) Autonomous recording system. Our first experiment of 2D/3D VCS surveys has been carried out in Lake Biwa, JAPAN. in November 2009. The 2D VCS data processing follows the walk-away VSP, including wave field separation and depth migration. The result gives clearer image than the conventional surface seismic. Prestack depth migration is applied to 3D data to obtain good quality 3D depth volume. Uncertainty of the source/receiver poisons in water causes the serious problem of the imaging. We used several transducer/transponder to estimate these positions. The VCS seismic records themselves can also provide sensor position using the first break of each trace and we calibrate the positions. We are currently developing the autonomous recording VCS system and planning the trial experiment in actual ocean to establish the way of deployment/recovery and the examine the position through the current flow in November, 2010. The second VCS survey will planned over the actual hydrothermal deposit with deep-towed source in February, 2011.

  13. An external peer review of the U.S. Department of Energy's assessment of ''damages and benefits of the fuel cycles: Estimation methods, impacts, and values''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The need for better assessments of the ''external'' benefits and costs of environmental effects of various fuel cycles was identified during the development of the National Energy Strategy. The growing importance of this issue was emphasized by US Department of Energy (DOE) management because over half of the states were already pursuing some form of social costing in electricity regulation and a well-established technical basis for such decisions was lacking. This issue was identified as a major area of controversy--both scientifically and politically--in developing energy policies at the state and national level. In 1989, the DOE's Office of Domestic and International Energy Policy commissioned a study of the external environmental damages and benefits of the major fuel cycles involved in electric power generation. Over the next 3-year period, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Resources for the Future conducted the study and produced a series of documents (fuel cycle documents) evaluating the costs of environmental damages of the coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, hydroelectric, and nuclear fuel cycles, as well as the Background Document on methodological issues. These documents described work that took almost 3 years and $2.5 million to complete and whose implications could be far reaching. In 1992, the Secretary of Energy sought advice on the overall concepts underlying the studies and the means employed to estimate environmental externalities. He asked the Secretary of Energy's Advisory Board to undertake a peer review of the fuel cycle studies and encouraged the Board to turn to outside expertise, as needed

  14. Damage analysis: damage function development and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simons, R.L.; Odette, G.R.

    1975-01-01

    The derivation and application of damage functions, including recent developments for the U.S. LMFBR and CTR programs, is reviewed. A primary application of damage functions is in predicting component life expectancies; i.e., the fluence required in a service spectrum to attain a specified design property change. An important part of the analysis is the estimation of the uncertainty in such fluence limit predictions. The status of standardizing the procedures for the derivation and application of damage functions is discussed. Improvements in several areas of damage function development are needed before standardization can be completed. These include increasing the quantity and quality of the data used in the analysis, determining the limitations of the analysis due to the presence of multiple damage mechanisms, and finally, testing of damage function predictions against data obtained from material surveillance programs in operating thermal and fast reactors. 23 references. (auth)

  15. The potential for vault-induced seismicity in nuclear fuel waste disposal: experience from Canadian mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, C.D.; Chandler, N.A.

    1996-12-01

    A seismic event which causes damage to an underground opening is called a rockburst. Practical experience indicates that these damaging seismic events are associated with deep mines where extraction ratios are greater than 0.6. For the arrangement being considered by AECL for nuclear fuel waste disposal vaults, extraction ratios, for the room and pillar design, will be less than 0.3. At this extraction ratio the stress magnitudes will not be sufficient to induce seismic events that can damage the underground openings. Documented world-wide experience shows that unless the underground opening is very close to the source of a naturally occurring seismic event, such as an earthquake, the opening will also not experience any significant damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will improve its resistance to earthquake damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will also reduce the total convergence of the openings caused by thermal loads and hence minimize the potential for thermally-induced seismic events. (author)

  16. Temblor, an app focused on your seismic risk and how to reduce it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Madden, E.

    2015-12-01

    Half of the world's population lives near active faults, and so could suffer earthquake damage. Most do not know they are at risk; many of the rest do too little, too late. So, Temblor is intended to enable everyone in the United States, and eventually the world, to learn their seismic hazard, to determine what most ensures their safety, and to determine the risk reduction measures in their best financial interest. In our free web and mobile app, and Chrome extension for real estate websites, Temblor estimates the likelihood of seismic shaking from all quakes at their occurrence rates, and the consequences of the shaking for home damage. The app then shows how the damage or its costs could be decreased by buying or renting a seismically safer home, securing fragile objects inside your home, retrofitting an older home, or buying earthquake insurance. Temblor uses public data from the USGS in the U.S., SHARE in Europe, and the GEAR model (Bird et al, in press, BSSA) for the globe. Through publicly available modeling methods, the hazard data is combined with public data on homes (construction date and square footage) to make risk calculations. This means that Temblor's results are independently reproducible. The app makes many simplifying assumptions, but users can provide additional information on their site and home for refined estimates. Temblor also lets one see active faults and recent quakes on the screen as they drive through an area. Because fear tends to trigger either panic or denial, Temblor seeks to make the world of earthquakes more fascinating than frightening. We are neither scaring nor soothing people, but rather talking straight. Through maps, globes, push notifications, family connections, and costs and benefit estimates, Temblor emphasizes the personal, local, realtime, and most importantly, rational. Temblor's goal is to distill scientific and engineering information into lucid, trusted, and ideally actionable guidance to renters, home owners, and

  17. Quantitative Seismic Amplitude Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dey, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Seismic Value Chain quantifies the cyclic interaction between seismic acquisition, imaging and reservoir characterization. Modern seismic innovation to address the global imbalance in hydrocarbon supply and demand requires such cyclic interaction of both feed-forward and feed-back processes.

  18. Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanzano, Giovanni; Salzano, Ernesto; Santucci de Magistris, Filippo; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech). -- Highlights: • The seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines is analyzed. • A collection of data for pipelines damaged by earthquake is given. • Damage states and risk states for pipelines are defined. • Consequence-based fragility formulations for the loss of containment are given • Seismic threshold values for public authority, risk assessment and gas distribution are shown

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

    2018-02-01

    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  20. Seismically induced common cause failures in PSA of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a research project on the seismically induced common cause failures in nuclear power plants performed for Toshiba Corp. is described. The objective of this research was to develop the procedure for estimating the common cause failure probabilities of different nuclear power plant components using the combination of seismic experience data, the review of sources of dependency, sensitivity studies and engineering judgement. The research project consisted of three tasks: the investigation of damage instances in past earthquakes, the analysis of multiple failures and their root causes, and the development of the methodology for assessing seismically induced common cause failures. The details of these tasks are explained. In this paper, the works carried out in the third task are described. A methodology for treating common cause failures and the correlation between component failures is formulated; it highlights the modeling of event trees taking into account common cause failures and the development of fault trees considering the correlation between component failures. The overview of seismic PSA, the quantification methods for dependent failures and Latin Hypercube sampling method are described. (K.I.)

  1. Realistic modelling of the seismic input: Site effects and parametric studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-11-01

    We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation, showing the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the framework of the EC project 'Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges' (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. The definition of the seismic input at the Warth bridge site, i.e. the determination of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake with a given magnitude and epicentral distance from the site, has been done following a theoretical approach. In order to perform an accurate and realistic estimate of site effects and of differential motion it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters, in realistic geological structures. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different sources and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of the reach of stochastic models, at a very low cost/benefit ratio. (author)

  2. Seismic analysis of axisymmetric shells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jospin, R.J.; Toledo, E.M.; Feijoo, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    Axisymmetric shells subjected to multiple support excitation are studied. The shells are spatialy discretized by the finite element method and in order to obtain estimates for the maximum values of displacements and stresses the response spectrum tecnique is used. Finally, some numerical results are presented and discussed in the case of a shell of revolution with vertical symmetry axis, subjected to seismic ground motions in the horizontal, vertical and rocking directions. (Author) [pt

  3. Man-caused seismicity of Kuzbass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanov, Alexandr; Emanov, Alexey; Leskova, Ekaterina; Fateyev, Alexandr

    2010-05-01

    A natural seismicity of Kuzne