Air permeability for a concrete shear wall after a damaging seismic load simulation cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girrens, S.P.; Farrar, C.R.

1991-01-01

A study was initiated to estimate air leakage, driven by wind-generated pressure gradients, from a seismically damaged concrete structure. This paper describes an experiment performed to measure the air permeability in a reinforced concrete shear wall, both before and after simulated seismic loading. Static load-cycle testing was used to simulate earthquake loading. Permeability measurements were made by pressurizing one side of the shear wall above atmospheric conditions and recording the transient-pressure decay. Air permeability measurements made on the shear wall before loading fell within the range of values for concrete permeability published in the literature. As long as the structure exhibited linear load-displacement response, no variation in the air permeability was detected. However, experimental results indicate that the air permeability in the shear wall increased by a factor of 40 after the wall had been damaged (cracked)

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Yang Heui; Shin, Hyun Mok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2001-12-15

The most part of the nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea are more than 20 years old and obviously we cannot pretend that their original performance is actually maintained. In addition, earthquake occurrences show an increasing trend all over the world, and Korea can no more be considered as a zone safe from earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Ho Hyun; Cho, Yang Hui [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2000-12-15

Some of nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea have been passed about 20 years after construction. Moreover, in the case of KORI I the service year is over 20 years, so their abilities are different from initial abilities. Also, earthquake outbreak increase, our country is not safe area for earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Estimation of core-damage frequency to evolutionary ALWR [advanced light water reactor] due to seismic initiating events: Task 4.3.3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, R.D.; Harrison, D.G.; Summitt, R.L.

1990-04-01

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is presently developing a requirements document for the design of advanced light water reactors (ALWRs). One of the basic goals of the EPRI ALWR Requirements Document is that the core-damage frequency for an ALWR shall be less than 1.0E-5. To aid in this effort, the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Severe Accident Program (ARSAP) initiated a functional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine how effectively the evolutionary plant requirements contained in the existing EPRI Requirements Document assure that this safety goal will be met. This report develops an approximation of the core-damage frequency due to seismic events for both evolutionary plant designs (pressurized-water reactor (PWR) and boiling-water reactor(BWR)) as modeled in the corresponding functional PRAs. Component fragility values were taken directly form information which has been submitted for inclusion in Appendix A to Volume 1 of the EPRI Requirements Document. The results show a seismic core-damage frequency of 5.2E-6 for PWRS and 5.0E-6 for BWRs. Combined with the internal initiators from the functional PRAs, the overall core-damage frequencies are 6.0E-6 for the pwr and BWR, both of which satisfy the 1.0E-5 EPRI goal. In addition, site-specific considerations, such as more rigid components and less conservative fragility data and seismic hazard curves, may further reduce these frequencies. The effect of seismic events on structures are not addressed in this generic evaluation and should be addressed separately on a design-specific basis. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Estimation of Cyclic Interstory Drift Capacity of Steel Framed Structures and Future Applications for Seismic Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edén Bojórquez

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Several studies have been devoted to calibrate damage indices for steel and reinforced concrete members with the purpose of overcoming some of the shortcomings of the parameters currently used during seismic design. Nevertheless, there is a challenge to study and calibrate the use of such indices for the practical structural evaluation of complex structures. In this paper, an energy-based damage model for multidegree-of-freedom (MDOF steel framed structures that accounts explicitly for the effects of cumulative plastic deformation demands is used to estimate the cyclic drift capacity of steel structures. To achieve this, seismic hazard curves are used to discuss the limitations of the maximum interstory drift demand as a performance parameter to achieve adequate damage control. Then the concept of cyclic drift capacity, which incorporates information of the influence of cumulative plastic deformation demands, is introduced as an alternative for future applications of seismic design of structures subjected to long duration ground motions.

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Early estimation of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismic deformation

OpenAIRE

Weidong, Li; Chaojun, Zhang; Dahui, Li; Jiayong, He; Huizhong, Chen; Lomnitz, Cinna

2010-01-01

The absolute fault displacement in co-seismic deformation is derived assuming that location, depth, faulting mechanism and magnitude of the earthquake are known. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M8.0) is used as an example to determine the distribution of seismic intensities using absolute displacement and a crustal model. We fnd that an early prediction of the distribution of seismic intensities after a large earthquake may be performed from the estimated absolute co-seismic displacements using...

Contribution to the damage measurement of reinforced concrete buildings under seismic solicitations: proposal of an improvement for the evaluation of the damaging potential of a signal and of the damage for the girders structures: introduction to the reliability analysis of the damage in terms of the damaging potential of a seismic signal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naze, P.A.

2004-12-01

Building damage measurement during and after an earthquake remains an economical as well as technical stake as difficult to cope with as the problem it raises all the more because its importance depends on the field or the building function: civil, medical, military, nuclear... Even building ruin remains one of the most critical diagnosis to establish. Then since prediction of earthquake still remains impossible, foreseeing structural damages due to seismic motion has become a key point in earthquake engineering. This work aims at evaluating the relevance of classical seismic signal damaging potential indices and at proposing improvement of these indices in order to provide better prediction of structural damage due to earthquake. The first part supplies a non exhaustive state of the art of main Damaging Potential Indices IP and Damage Indices ID used in earthquake engineering. In the second part, IP/ID correlations results are analysed in order to evaluate IP relevance, to justify displacement based approach use (capacity spectrum method) for damage prediction and to make good the proposal for improvement of Damaging Potential Index. But studding seismic signal damaging potential is usually not enough to foresee damage firstly because scalar representation of damaging potential is not easy to link to physics reality and secondly because of damage scattering often observed for a single value of seismic signal damaging potential. In the same way, a single damage index value may correspond to very different structural damage states. Hence, this work carries on with a contribution to damage index reliability improvement, able to detect real structural damage appearance as well as to quantify this damage by associating the distance between one structural sate and the structural collapse, defined as an instability. (author)

Damage assessment for seismic response of recycled concrete filled steel tube columns

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yijie; Xiao, Jianzhuang; Shen, Luming

2016-09-01

A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube (RCFST) columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate (RCA) replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes (CFST).

Seismic damage assessment for high-rise buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Scholl, Roger E.

1980-01-01

The problem considered in this project, conducted by URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume), for the U.S. Geological Survey, is the identification, evaluation, and correlation of ground-motion and structural parameters in order to improve procedures for predicting dollar losses for high-rise structures damaged by earthquakes. Ground-motion data bases, analytical techniques, and known motion-damage relationships already developed for high-rise buildings and for other classes of structures will be refined and extended so that reliable quantitative seismic risk evaluations can be made.

Seismic Dynamic Damage Characteristics of Vertical and Batter Pile-supported Wharf Structure Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Jiren

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Considering a typical steel pipe pile-supported wharf as the research object, finite element analytical models of batter and vertical pile structures were established under the same construction site, service, and geological conditions to investigate the seismic dynamic damage characteristics of vertical and batter pile-supported wharf structures. By the numerical simulation and the nonlinear time history response analysis of structure system and the moment–axial force relation curve, we analyzed the dynamic damage characteristics of the two different structures of batter and vertical piles under different seismic ground motions to provide reasonable basis and reference for designing and selecting a pile-supported wharf structure. Results showed that the axial force of batter piles was dominant in the batter pile structure and that batter piles could effectively bear and share seismic load. Under the seismic ground motion with peak ground acceleration (PGA of 350 Gal and in consideration of the factors of the design requirement of horizontal displacement, the seismic performance of the batter pile structure was better than that of the vertical pile structure. Under the seismic ground motion with a PGA of 1000 Gal, plastic failure occurred in two different structures. The contrastive analysis of the development of plastic damage and the absorption and dissipation for seismic energy indicated that the seismic performance of the vertical pile structure was better than that of the batter pile structure.

Quasistatic Seismic Damage Indicators for RC Structures from Dissipating Energies in Tangential Subspaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilfried B. Krätzig

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper applies recent research on structural damage description to earthquake-resistant design concepts. Based on the primary design aim of life safety, this work adopts the necessity of additional protection aims for property, installation, and equipment. This requires the definition of damage indicators, which are able to quantify the arising structural damage. As in present design, it applies nonlinear quasistatic (pushover concepts due to code provisions as simplified dynamic design tools. Substituting so nonlinear time-history analyses, seismic low-cycle fatigue of RC structures is approximated in similar manner. The treatment will be embedded into a finite element environment, and the tangential stiffness matrix KT in tangential subspaces then is identified as the most general entry for structural damage information. Its spectra of eigenvalues λi or natural frequencies ωi of the structure serve to derive damage indicators Di, applicable to quasistatic evaluation of seismic damage. Because det KT=0 denotes structural failure, such damage indicators range from virgin situation Di=0 to failure Di=1 and thus correspond with Fema proposals on performance-based seismic design. Finally, the developed concept is checked by reanalyses of two experimentally investigated RC frames.

The forecast of mining-induced seismicity and the consequent risk of damage to the excavation in the area of seismic event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Drzewiecki

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Central Mining Institute has developed a method for forecasting the amount of seismic energy created by tremors induced by mining operations. The results of geophysical measurements of S wave velocity anomalies in a rock mass or the results of analytic calculations of the values of pressure on the horizon of the elastic layers are used in the process of calculating the energy. The calculation program which has been developed and adopted has been modified over recent years and it now enables not only the prediction of the energy of dynamic phenomena induced by mining but also the forecasting of the devastating range of seismic shock. The results obtained from this calculation, usually presented in a more readable graphic form, are useful for the macroscopic evaluation of locations that are potential sources of seismic energy. Forecasting of the maximum energy of seismic shock without prior knowledge of the location of the shock's source, does not allow shock attenuation that results from, for example, a distance of tremor source from the excavation which will be affected by seismic energy, to be taken into consideration. The phenomena of energy dissipation, which is taken into account in the forecasts, create a new quality of assessment of threat to the excavation. The paper presents the principle of a method of forecasting the seismic energy of a shock and the risk of damage to the excavation as a result of the impact of its energy wave. The solution assumes that the source of the energy shock is a resilient layer in which the sum of the gravitational stresses, resulting from natural disturbances and those induced by the conducted or planned mining exploitation, is estimated. The proposed solution assumes a spherical model for the tremor source, for which seismic energy is forecasted as a function of the longwall advance and the elementary value of seismic energy destroying the excavation. Subsequently, the following are calculated for the

High Resolution SAR Imaging Employing Geometric Features for Extracting Seismic Damage of Buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, L. P.; Wang, X. P.; Dou, A. X.; Ding, X.

2018-04-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image is relatively easy to acquire but difficult for interpretation. This paper probes how to identify seismic damage of building using geometric features of SAR. The SAR imaging geometric features of buildings, such as the high intensity layover, bright line induced by double bounce backscattering and dark shadow is analysed, and show obvious differences texture features of homogeneity, similarity and entropy in combinatorial imaging geometric regions between the un-collapsed and collapsed buildings in airborne SAR images acquired in Yushu city damaged by 2010 Ms7.1 Yushu, Qinghai, China earthquake, which implicates a potential capability to discriminate collapsed and un-collapsed buildings from SAR image. Study also shows that the proportion of highlight (layover & bright line) area (HA) is related to the seismic damage degree, thus a SAR image damage index (SARDI), which related to the ratio of HA to the building occupation are of building in a street block (SA), is proposed. While HA is identified through feature extraction with high-pass and low-pass filtering of SAR image in frequency domain. A partial region with 58 natural street blocks in the Yushu City are selected as study area. Then according to the above method, HA is extracted, SARDI is then calculated and further classified into 3 classes. The results show effective through validation check with seismic damage classes interpreted artificially from post-earthquake airborne high resolution optical image, which shows total classification accuracy 89.3 %, Kappa coefficient 0.79 and identical to the practical seismic damage distribution. The results are also compared and discussed with the building damage identified from SAR image available by other authors.

DEPENDENCE OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF COMMERCIAL DAMAGES DUE TO POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CLASS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF A BUILDING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanzada R. Zajnulabidova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract. Objectives To determine the damage probability of earthquakes of different intensities on the example of a real projected railway station building having a framework design scheme based on the density function of damage distribution. Methods Uncertainty, always existing in nature, invalidates a deterministic approach to the assessment of territorial seismic hazards and, consequently, seismic risk. In this case, seismic risk assessment can be carried out on a probabilistic basis. Thus, the risk will always be there, but it must be minimised. The task of optimising the reinforcement costs is solved by using the density distribution function for seismic effects of varying intensity, taking into account the degree of building responsibility. Results The distribution functions of the expected damage for a building with a reinforced concrete frame located in a highly seismic region with a repetition of 9-point shocks every 500 years and 10-point shocks once every 5000 years are constructed. A significant effect of the seismic resistance class of a building on the form of the distribution functions is shown. For structures of a high seismic resistance class, not only is the seismic risk reduced, but also the variance of the expected damage. From the graphs obtained, it can be seen that the seismic resistance class significantly affects the damage distribution. At a probability of 0.997, the expected damage for a non-reinforced building will exceed 43%; for a reinforced one it is only 10%. It also follows from the graphs that the variance of the damage magnitude decreases with the growth of the seismic resistance class of the building. This fact is an additional incentive for investing in antiseismic reinforcement of buildings. Conclusion The study shows the expediency of working with the damage density distribution function when managing seismic risk. In this case, it becomes possible to strengthen the building with a specified probability of

Seismotectonic Conditions and Seismic Risk in Gori

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varazanashvili, O.; Tsereteli, N.; Sumbadze, B.; Mukhadze, T.

2006-01-01

The seismic history and seismotectonic conditions of earthquake initiation are investigated in Gori and surrounding area. The main parameters of the newly discovered past earthquake at Takhtisdziri are estimated. The levels of seismic risk of 7,8 and 9 intensity scenario earthquakes estimated in Gori. Also damage of sity caused by destroying Kartli earthquake of 1920 is estimated. (author)

Intensity estimation of historical earthquakes through seismic analysis of wooden house

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, I. K.; Soe, J. M.

1999-01-01

The intensity of historical earthquake records related with house collapses are estimated by the seismic analyses of traditional three-bay-straw-roof house. Eighteen artificial time histories for magnitudes 6-8, epicentral distances 5 km - 350 km and hard and soft soil condition were generated for the analyses. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed for a traditional three-bay-roof house. Damage level of the wooden house according to the input earthquake motions and the MM intensity were estimated by maximum displacement response at the top of columns. Considering the structural characteristics of the three-bay-straw-roof house, the largest historical earthquake record related to the house collapse is about MMI VIII

Study on Repaired Earthquake-Damaged Bridge Piers under Seismic Load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Deng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The concrete bridge pier damaged during earthquakes need be repaired to meet the design standards. Steel tube as a traditional material or FRP as a novel material has become popular to repair the damaged reinforced concrete (RC bridge piers. In this paper, experimental and finite element (FE studies are employed to analyze the confinement effectiveness of the different repair materials. The FE method was used to calculate the hysteretic behavior of three predamaged circle RC bridge piers repaired with steel tube, basalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP, and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP, respectively. Meanwhile, the repaired predamaged circle concrete bridge piers were tested by pseudo-static cyclic loading to study the seismic behavior and evaluate the confinement effectiveness of the different repair materials and techniques. The FE analysis and experimental results showed that the repaired piers had similar hysteretic curves with the original specimens and all the three repair techniques can restore the seismic performance of the earthquake-damaged piers. Steel tube jacketing can significantly improve the lateral stiffness and peak load of the damaged pier, while the BFRP and CFRP sheets cannot improve these properties due to their thin thickness.

Estimation of pore pressure from seismic velocities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, Zayra; Ojeda, German Y; Mateus, Darwin

2009-01-01

On pore pressure calculations it is common to obtain a profile in a well bore, which is then extrapolated toward offset wells. This practice might generate mistakes on pore pressure measurements, since geological conditions may change from a well bore to another, even into the same basin. Therefore, it is important to use other tools which allow engineers not only to detect and estimate in an indirect way overpressure zones, but also to keep a lateral tracking of possible changes that may affect those values in the different formations. Taking into account this situation, we applied a methodology that estimates formation pressure from 3D seismic velocities by using the Eaton method. First, we estimated formation pore pressure; then, we identified possible overpressure zones. Finally, those results obtained from seismic information were analyzed involving well logs and pore pressure tests, in order to compare real data with prediction based on seismic information from the Colombian foothill.

Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Frame buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatiha Cherifi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.

Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

2009-04-01

Iran is a country located in a tectonic active belt and is prone to earthquake and related phenomena. In the recent years, several earthquakes caused many fatalities and damages to facilities, e.g. the Manjil (1990), Avaj (2002), Bam (2003) and Firuzabad-e-Kojur (2004) earthquakes. These earthquakes generated many landslides. For instance, catastrophic landslides triggered by the Manjil Earthquake (Ms = 7.7) in 1990 buried the village of Fatalak, killed more than 130 peoples and cut many important road and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. In general, earthquakes in Iran have been concentrated in two major zones with different seismicity characteristics: one is the region of Alborz and Central Iran and the other is the Zagros Orogenic Belt. Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose a time probabilistic approach for earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (2003), has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis of hazard estimates. This method consists in evaluating the recurrence of seismically induced slope failure conditions inferred from the Newmark's model. First, by adopting Arias Intensity to quantify seismic shaking and using different Arias attenuation relations for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros regions, well-established methods of seismic hazard assessment, based on the Cornell (1968) method, were employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 year). Then, following Jibson (1998), empirical formulae specifically developed for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros, were used to represent, according to the Newmark's model, the relation linking Newmark's displacement Dn to Arias intensity Ia and to slope critical acceleration ac. These formulae were employed to evaluate

Seismic vulnerability and damage of Italian historical centres: A case study in the Campania region

Science.gov (United States)

Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Landolfo, Raffaele

2017-07-01

The preservation of masonry buildings typical of Italian historical centres represents a very pressing dilemma founded on recovery need of the urban fabric original character. In the paper, based on a methodology developed by some of the Authors on building aggregates, the seismic vulnerability estimation of some masonry compounds in the heart of the town of San PotitoSannitico (Caserta, Italy) is presented and compared to the results achieved from applying the basic literature method for isolated constructions. Finally, the damage scenario of inspected buildings has been shown by highlighting clearly the influence of different positions of structural units on the damages that masonry aggregates suffer under different grade earthquakes, leading to individuate the most vulnerable buildings.

Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

Seismic damage identification for steel structures using distributed fiber optics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Shuang; Cai, C S; Ou, Jinping

2009-08-01

A distributed fiber optic monitoring methodology based on optic time domain reflectometry technology is developed for seismic damage identification of steel structures. Epoxy with a strength closely associated to a specified structure damage state is used for bonding zigzagged configured optic fibers on the surfaces of the structure. Sensing the local deformation of the structure, the epoxy modulates the signal change within the optic fiber in response to the damage state of the structure. A monotonic loading test is conducted on a steel specimen installed with the proposed sensing system using selected epoxy that will crack at the designated strain level, which indicates the damage of the steel structure. Then, using the selected epoxy, a varying degree of cyclic loading amplitudes, which is associated with different damage states, is applied on a second specimen. The test results show that the specimen's damage can be identified by the optic sensors, and its maximum local deformation can be recorded by the sensing system; moreover, the damage evolution can also be identified.

Bayesian nonlinear structural FE model and seismic input identification for damage assessment of civil structures

Science.gov (United States)

Astroza, Rodrigo; Ebrahimian, Hamed; Li, Yong; Conte, Joel P.

2017-09-01

A methodology is proposed to update mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures subjected to unknown input excitation. The approach allows to jointly estimate unknown time-invariant model parameters of a nonlinear FE model of the structure and the unknown time histories of input excitations using spatially-sparse output response measurements recorded during an earthquake event. The unscented Kalman filter, which circumvents the computation of FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown model parameters and unknown input excitations by using a deterministic sampling approach, is employed as the estimation tool. The use of measurement data obtained from arrays of heterogeneous sensors, including accelerometers, displacement sensors, and strain gauges is investigated. Based on the estimated FE model parameters and input excitations, the updated nonlinear FE model can be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and assess damage in the structure. Numerically simulated response data of a three-dimensional 4-story 2-by-1 bay steel frame structure with six unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation, and a three-dimensional 5-story 2-by-1 bay reinforced concrete frame structure with nine unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. The results of the validation studies show the excellent performance and robustness of the proposed algorithm to jointly estimate unknown FE model parameters and unknown input excitations.

Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

2017-10-01

Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

A new system for seismic yield estimation of underground explosions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.R.

1991-01-01

Research conducted over the past decade has led to the development of a number of innovative procedures for estimating the yields of underground nuclear explosions based on systematic analyses of digital seismic data recorded from these tests. In addition, a wide variety of new data regarding the geophysical environments at Soviet test locations have now become available as a result of the Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) and associated data exchanges. The system described in this paper represents an attempt to integrate all these new capabilities and data into a comprehensive operational prototype which can be used to obtain optimum seismic estimates of explosion yield together with quantitative measures of the uncertainty in those estimates. The implementation of this system has involved a wide variety of technical tasks, including the development of a comprehensive seismic database and related database access software, formulation of a graphical test site information interface for accessing available information on explosion source conditions, design of an interactive seismic analyst station for use in processing the observed data to extract the required magnitude measures and the incorporation of formal statistical analysis modules for use in yield estimation and assessment

The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

2008-01-01

This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation

The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

2008-07-01

This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation.

DEPENDENCE OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF COMMERCIAL DAMAGES DUE TO POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CLASS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF A BUILDING

OpenAIRE

Hanzada R. Zajnulabidova; Alexander M. Uzdin; Tatiana M. Chirkst

2017-01-01

Abstract. Objectives To determine the damage probability of earthquakes of different intensities on the example of a real projected railway station building having a framework design scheme based on the density function of damage distribution. Methods Uncertainty, always existing in nature, invalidates a deterministic approach to the assessment of territorial seismic hazards and, consequently, seismic risk. In this case, seismic risk assessment can be carried out on a probabilistic basis. Thu...

Application of parallel computing to seismic damage process simulation of an arch dam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhong Hong; Lin Gao; Li Jianbo

2010-01-01

The simulation of damage process of high arch dam subjected to strong earthquake shocks is significant to the evaluation of its performance and seismic safety, considering the catastrophic effect of dam failure. However, such numerical simulation requires rigorous computational capacity. Conventional serial computing falls short of that and parallel computing is a fairly promising solution to this problem. The parallel finite element code PDPAD was developed for the damage prediction of arch dams utilizing the damage model with inheterogeneity of concrete considered. Developed with programming language Fortran, the code uses a master/slave mode for programming, domain decomposition method for allocation of tasks, MPI (Message Passing Interface) for communication and solvers from AZTEC library for solution of large-scale equations. Speedup test showed that the performance of PDPAD was quite satisfactory. The code was employed to study the damage process of a being-built arch dam on a 4-node PC Cluster, with more than one million degrees of freedom considered. The obtained damage mode was quite similar to that of shaking table test, indicating that the proposed procedure and parallel code PDPAD has a good potential in simulating seismic damage mode of arch dams. With the rapidly growing need for massive computation emerged from engineering problems, parallel computing will find more and more applications in pertinent areas.

Robust estimation of seismic coda shape

Science.gov (United States)

Nikkilä, Mikko; Polishchuk, Valentin; Krasnoshchekov, Dmitry

2014-04-01

We present a new method for estimation of seismic coda shape. It falls into the same class of methods as non-parametric shape reconstruction with the use of neural network techniques where data are split into a training and validation data sets. We particularly pursue the well-known problem of image reconstruction formulated in this case as shape isolation in the presence of a broadly defined noise. This combined approach is enabled by the intrinsic feature of seismogram which can be divided objectively into a pre-signal seismic noise with lack of the target shape, and the remainder that contains scattered waveforms compounding the coda shape. In short, we separately apply shape restoration procedure to pre-signal seismic noise and the event record, which provides successful delineation of the coda shape in the form of a smooth almost non-oscillating function of time. The new algorithm uses a recently developed generalization of classical computational-geometry tool of α-shape. The generalization essentially yields robust shape estimation by ignoring locally a number of points treated as extreme values, noise or non-relevant data. Our algorithm is conceptually simple and enables the desired or pre-determined level of shape detail, constrainable by an arbitrary data fit criteria. The proposed tool for coda shape delineation provides an alternative to moving averaging and/or other smoothing techniques frequently used for this purpose. The new algorithm is illustrated with an application to the problem of estimating the coda duration after a local event. The obtained relation coefficient between coda duration and epicentral distance is consistent with the earlier findings in the region of interest.

Realtime estimation of city gas pipe network damage by lateral flow of liquefied ground behind quay walls

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishida, E.; Isoyama, R. [Japan Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan). Public Management Research Center; Koganemaru, K.; Shimuzu, Y. [Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan). Center for Disaster Management and Supply Control; Morimoto, I. [Kiso-Jiban Consultants Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Yasuda, S. [Tokyo Denki Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

2004-07-01

Estimating the degree of damage to city gas pipe networks is difficult because of the lack of damage case data. This paper proposes a method for calculating the amount of earthquake-induced ground displacement at pipe node locations by constructing ground models. Data for the models was obtained from boreholes and by using a simple ground flow formula. The analysis method will make it possible to calculate the allowable limits of damage-causing factors such as ground motion and flow for different pipe network elements. The analysis procedure was conducted using a 2-dimensional liquefaction-induced flow analysis program finite element method. A real time damage estimation system for low pressure gas pipes uses ground motions having a design seismic coefficient of 0.4 in preparing strong earthquake liquefied layer thickness distribution data. Flow calculations were presented as well as a ground revetment database to replace node location data. It was concluded that achieving consistency was desirable. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

Evaluation of fatigue-ratcheting damage of a pressurised elbow undergoing damage seismic inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang Van, K.

2000-01-01

We present a simplified method to calculate the plastic ratchet of elbow-shaped pipes submitted to seismic loading and an internal pressure. This method is simplified in the sense that the value of the ratchet is obtained without the use of finite element method (FEM) calculations. Here we derive a formula and use it to evaluate the fatigue-ratcheting damage of an elbow. This approach is applicable to complex plastic response appropriately described by non-linear kinematics hardening, which is more realistic for stainless steel such as 316-L. (orig.)

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

Science.gov (United States)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Study on seismic behaviour of integral concrete bridges with different skew angles through fragility curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Reza ُُShiravand

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Bridges are key elements in urban transportation system and should be designed to sustain earthquake induced damages to be utilized after earthquake. Extensive damages during last earthquakes highlighted the importance of seismic assessment and damage estimation of bridges. Skewness is one of the primary parameters effects on seismic behavior of bridges. Skew bridges are defined as bridges with skew angle piers and abutments. In these bridges, the piers have some degrees of skewness due to construction restrictions, such as those caused by crossing a waterway, railway line or road. This paper aims to investigate seismic behavior of skew concrete bridges using damage criteria and estimate probability of piers damage with fragility curves. To this end, three types of concrete bridges with two, three and four spans and varying skew angles of 00 ,100, 200 and 300 are modeled with finite element software. Seismic responses of bridge piers under 10 earthquake ground motion records are calculated using incremental dynamic analysis. Following, damage criteria proposed by Mackie and Stojadinovic are used to define damage limits of bridge piers in four damage states of slight, moderate, extensive and complete and bridge fragility curves are developed. The results show that increasing skew angles increases the probability of damage occurrence, particularly in extensive and complete damage states.

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano

2016-12-01

The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

A methodology to calibrate water saturation estimated from 4D seismic data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davolio, Alessandra; Maschio, Célio; José Schiozer, Denis

2014-01-01

Time-lapse seismic data can be used to estimate saturation changes within a reservoir, which is valuable information for reservoir management as it plays an important role in updating reservoir simulation models. The process of updating reservoir properties, history matching, can incorporate estimated saturation changes qualitatively or quantitatively. For quantitative approaches, reliable information from 4D seismic data is important. This work proposes a methodology to calibrate the volume of water in the estimated saturation maps, as these maps can be wrongly estimated due to problems with seismic signals (such as noise, errors associated with data processing and resolution issues). The idea is to condition the 4D seismic data to known information provided by engineering, in this case the known amount of injected and produced water in the field. The application of the proposed methodology in an inversion process (previously published) that estimates saturation from 4D seismic data is presented, followed by a discussion concerning the use of such data in a history matching process. The methodology is applied to a synthetic dataset to validate the results, the main of which are: (1) reduction of the effects of noise and errors in the estimated saturation, yielding more reliable data to be used quantitatively or qualitatively and (2) an improvement in the properties update after using this data in a history matching procedure. (paper)

Demonstration of NonLinear Seismic Soil Structure Interaction and Applicability to New System Fragility Seismic Curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Nuclear Science and Technology

2014-09-01

Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRAs are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (the frequency of certain magnitude events) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and systems analysis. Figure 1 provides a high level overview of the risk quantification process. The focus of this research is on understanding and removing conservatism (when possible) in the quantification of seismic risk at NPPs.

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

2014-05-01

Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

LANL seismic screening method for existing buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickson, S.L.; Feller, K.C.; Fritz de la Orta, G.O.

1997-01-01

The purpose of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Seismic Screening Method is to provide a comprehensive, rational, and inexpensive method for evaluating the relative seismic integrity of a large building inventory using substantial life-safety as the minimum goal. The substantial life-safety goal is deemed to be satisfied if the extent of structural damage or nonstructural component damage does not pose a significant risk to human life. The screening is limited to Performance Category (PC) -0, -1, and -2 buildings and structures. Because of their higher performance objectives, PC-3 and PC-4 buildings automatically fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method and will be subject to a more detailed seismic analysis. The Laboratory has also designated that PC-0, PC-1, and PC-2 unreinforced masonry bearing wall and masonry infill shear wall buildings fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method because of their historically poor seismic performance or complex behavior. These building types are also recommended for a more detailed seismic analysis. The results of the LANL Seismic Screening Method are expressed in terms of separate scores for potential configuration or physical hazards (Phase One) and calculated capacity/demand ratios (Phase Two). This two-phase method allows the user to quickly identify buildings that have adequate seismic characteristics and structural capacity and screen them out from further evaluation. The resulting scores also provide a ranking of those buildings found to be inadequate. Thus, buildings not passing the screening can be rationally prioritized for further evaluation. For the purpose of complying with Executive Order 12941, the buildings failing the LANL Seismic Screening Method are deemed to have seismic deficiencies, and cost estimates for mitigation must be prepared. Mitigation techniques and cost-estimate guidelines are not included in the LANL Seismic Screening Method

The Influence of Infill Wall Topology and Seismic Characteristics on the Response and Damage Distribution in Frame Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikos Nanos

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper identifies the effects of infill wall existence and arrangement in the seismic response of frame structures utilising the global structural damage index after Park/Ang (GDIPA and the maximum interstorey drift ratio (MISDR to express structural seismic response. Five different infill wall topologies of a 10-storey frame structure have been selected and analysed presenting an improved damage distribution model for infill wall bearing frames, hence promoting the use of nonstructural elements as a means of improving frame structural seismic behaviour and highlighting important aspects of structural response, demonstrating the suitability of such element implementation beyond their intended architectural scope.

Effect of β on Seismic Vulnerability Curve for RC Bridge Based on Double Damage Criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Qinghai; Yuan Wancheng

2010-01-01

In the analysis of seismic vulnerability curve based on double damage criterion, the randomness of structural parameter and randomness of seismic should be considered. Firstly, the distribution characteristics of structure capability and seismic demand are obtained based on IDA and PUSHOVER, secondly, the vulnerability of the bridge is gained based on ANN and MC and a vulnerability curve according to this bridge and seismic is drawn. Finally, the analysis for a continuous bridge is displayed as an example, and parametric analysis for the effect of β is done, which reflects the bridge vulnerability overall from the point of total probability, and in order to reduce the discreteness, large value of β are suggested.

Simple estimating method of damages of concrete gravity dam based on linear dynamic analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sasaki, T.; Kanenawa, K.; Yamaguchi, Y. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan). Hydraulic Engineering Research Group

2004-07-01

Due to the occurrence of large earthquakes like the Kobe Earthquake in 1995, there is a strong need to verify seismic resistance of dams against much larger earthquake motions than those considered in the present design standard in Japan. Problems exist in using nonlinear analysis to evaluate the safety of dams including: that the influence which the set material properties have on the results of nonlinear analysis is large, and that the results of nonlinear analysis differ greatly according to the damage estimation models or analysis programs. This paper reports the evaluation indices based on a linear dynamic analysis method and the characteristics of the progress of cracks in concrete gravity dams with different shapes using a nonlinear dynamic analysis method. The study concludes that if simple linear dynamic analysis is appropriately conducted to estimate tensile stress at potential locations of initiating cracks, the damage due to cracks would be predicted roughly. 4 refs., 1 tab., 13 figs.

Estimation of Seismic Wavelets Based on the Multivariate Scale Mixture of Gaussians Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing-Huai Gao

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method for estimating seismic wavelets. Suppose a seismic wavelet can be modeled by a formula with three free parameters (scale, frequency and phase. We can transform the estimation of the wavelet into determining these three parameters. The phase of the wavelet is estimated by constant-phase rotation to the seismic signal, while the other two parameters are obtained by the Higher-order Statistics (HOS (fourth-order cumulant matching method. In order to derive the estimator of the Higher-order Statistics (HOS, the multivariate scale mixture of Gaussians (MSMG model is applied to formulating the multivariate joint probability density function (PDF of the seismic signal. By this way, we can represent HOS as a polynomial function of second-order statistics to improve the anti-noise performance and accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can work well for short time series.

Iterative reflectivity-constrained velocity estimation for seismic imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Masaya, Shogo; Verschuur, D. J. Eric

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a reflectivity constraint for velocity estimation to optimally solve the inverse problem for active seismic imaging. This constraint is based on the velocity model derived from the definition of reflectivity and acoustic impedance. The constraint does not require any prior information of the subsurface and large extra computational costs, like the calculation of so-called Hessian matrices. We incorporate this constraint into the Joint Migration Inversion algorithm, which simultaneously estimates both the reflectivity and velocity model of the subsurface in an iterative process. Using so-called full wavefield modeling, the misfit between forward modeled and measured data is minimized. Numerical and field data examples are given to demonstrate the validity of our proposed algorithm in case accurate initial models and the low frequency components of observed seismic data are absent.

Attenuation (1/Q) estimation in reflection seismic records

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raji, Wasiu; Rietbrock, Andreas

2013-01-01

Despite its numerous potential applications, the lack of a reliable method for determining attenuation (1/Q) in seismic data is an issue when utilizing attenuation for hydrocarbon exploration. In this paper, a new method for measuring attenuation in reflection seismic data is presented. The inversion process involves two key stages: computation of the centroid frequency for the individual signal using a variable window length and fast Fourier transform; and estimation of the difference in the centroid frequency and travel time for paired incident and transmitted signals. The new method introduces a shape factor and a constant which allows several spectral shapes to be used to represent a real seismic signal without altering the mathematical model. Application of the new method to synthetic data shows that it can provide reliable estimates of Q using any of the spectral shapes commonly assumed for real seismic signals. Tested against two published methods of Q measurement, the new method shows less sensitivity to interference from noise and change of frequency bandwidth. The method is also applied to a 3D data set from the Gullfaks field, North Sea, Norway. The trace length is divided into four intervals: AB, BC, CD, and DE. Results show that interval AB has the lowest 1/Q value, and that interval BC has the highest 1/Q value. The values of 1/Q measured in the CDP stack using the new method are consistent with those measured using the classical spectral ratio method. (paper)

Rock property estimates using multiple seismic attributes and neural networks; Pegasus Field, West Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schuelke, J.S.; Quirein, J.A.; Sarg, J.F.

1998-12-31

This case study shows the benefit of using multiple seismic trace attributes and the pattern recognition capabilities of neural networks to predict reservoir architecture and porosity distribution in the Pegasus Field, West Texas. The study used the power of neural networks to integrate geologic, borehole and seismic data. Illustrated are the improvements between the new neural network approach and the more traditional method of seismic trace inversion for porosity estimation. Comprehensive statistical methods and interpretational/subjective measures are used in the prediction of porosity from seismic attributes. A 3-D volume of seismic derived porosity estimates for the Devonian reservoir provide a very detailed estimate of porosity, both spatially and vertically, for the field. The additional reservoir porosity detail provided, between the well control, allows for optimal placement of horizontal wells and improved field development. 6 refs., 2 figs.

Assessment of Seismic Damage on The Exist Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic

Science.gov (United States)

Pınar, USTA; Nihat, MOROVA; EVCİ, Ahmet; ERGÜN, Serap

2018-01-01

Earthquake as a natural disaster could damage the lives of many people and buildings all over the world. These is micvulnerability of the buildings needs to be evaluated. Accurate evaluation of damage sustained by buildings during natural disaster events is critical to determine the buildings safety and their suitability for future occupancy. The earthquake is one of the disasters that structures face the most. There fore, there is a need to evaluate seismic damage and vulnerability of the buildings to protect them. These days fuzzy systems have been widely used in different fields of science because of its simpli city and efficiency. Fuzzy logic provides a suitable framework for reasoning, deduction, and decision making in fuzzy conditions. In this paper, studies on earthquake hazard evaluation of buildings by fuzzy logic modeling concepts in the literature have been investigated and evaluated, as a whole.

Seismic failure modes and seismic safety of Hardfill dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Xiong

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Based on microscopic damage theory and the finite element method, and using the Weibull distribution to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials, the seismic response of a typical Hardfill dam was analyzed through numerical simulation during the earthquakes with intensities of 8 degrees and even greater. The seismic failure modes and failure mechanism of the dam were explored as well. Numerical results show that the Hardfill dam remains at a low stress level and undamaged or slightly damaged during an earthquake with an intensity of 8 degrees. During overload earthquakes, tensile cracks occur at the dam surfaces and extend to inside the dam body, and the upstream dam body experiences more serious damage than the downstream dam body. Therefore, under the seismic conditions, the failure pattern of the Hardfill dam is the tensile fracture of the upstream regions and the dam toe. Compared with traditional gravity dams, Hardfill dams have better seismic performance and greater seismic safety.

Adaptive measurement selection for progressive damage estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wenfan; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Peralta, Pedro

2011-04-01

Noise and interference in sensor measurements degrade the quality of data and have a negative impact on the performance of structural damage diagnosis systems. In this paper, a novel adaptive measurement screening approach is presented to automatically select the most informative measurements and use them intelligently for structural damage estimation. The method is implemented efficiently in a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) setting using particle filtering. The noise suppression and improved damage estimation capability of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application to the problem of estimating progressive fatigue damage in an aluminum compact-tension (CT) sample using noisy PZT sensor measurements.

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

2018-04-01

There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

Seismic history of the Maltese islands and considerations on seismic risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Galea

2007-06-01

Full Text Available A historical catalogue of felt earthquakes in the Maltese islands has been compiled dating back to 1530. Although no fatalities were officially recorded during this time as a direct consequence of earthquake effects, serious damage to buildings occurred several times. In the catalogue time period, the islands experienced EMS-98 intensity VII-VIII once (11 January 1693 and intensity VII, or VI-VII five times. The northern segment of the Hyblean-Malta plateau is the source region which appears to pose the greatest threat, although large Greek events and lower magnitude Sicily Channel events also produced damage. Estimates of return periods for intensity ?V are presented, and it is shown that expected peak ground accelerations justify the implementation of, at least, minimum anti-seismic provisions. The rapid and continual increase in the local building stock on the densely-populated islands warrants the implementation of an appropriate seismic building code to be enforced.

Benefits of remote sensing technologies in the assessment of seismicity and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenzel, H.

2005-01-01

Estimating the likelihood of seismic hazard and the degree of damage, including damage of secondary effects is essential for damage mitigation planning. The present study is an attempt to integrate various data sets as LANDSAT ETM - and satellite radar (ERS) - data and geological and geophysical data to obtain a better understanding of processes influencing the damage intensity of stronger earthquakes. Special attention is given to the mapping of structural features visible on satellite imageries from the area in order to investigate the tectonic setting and to detect surface traces of fracture and fault zones that might influence the contour and degree of seismic shock and earthquake induced secondary effects as soil liquefaction. Special attention is focussed on active, neotectonic features. Linear features visible on remote sensing - data from the test area, thus, were mapped and risk areas delineated using ArcView - Geographic Information System (GIS) - technology. As risk areas were mapped those regions with higher risk of seismic wave amplification due to water saturated surfaces or due to intersecting fault zones guiding seismic waves. The evaluations were compared, correlated and combined with available geologic and geophysics data. The results of this study allow an application for seismic microzonation purposes

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

Fundamental aspects of seismic event detection, magnitude estimation and their interrelation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringdal, F.

1977-01-01

The main common subject of the papers forming this thesis is statistical model development within the seismological disciplines of seismic event detection and event magnitude estimation. As more high quality seismic data become available as a result of recent seismic network developments, the opportunity will exist for large scale application and further refinement of these models. It is hoped that the work presented here will facilitate improved understanding of the basic issues, both within earthquake-explosion discrimination, in the framework of which most of this work originated, and in seismology in general. (Auth.)

The use of multiwavelets for uncertainty estimation in seismic surface wave dispersion.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poppeliers, Christian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-12-01

This report describes a new single-station analysis method to estimate the dispersion and uncer- tainty of seismic surface waves using the multiwavelet transform. Typically, when estimating the dispersion of a surface wave using only a single seismic station, the seismogram is decomposed into a series of narrow-band realizations using a bank of narrow-band filters. By then enveloping and normalizing the filtered seismograms and identifying the maximum power as a function of frequency, the group velocity can be estimated if the source-receiver distance is known. However, using the filter bank method, there is no robust way to estimate uncertainty. In this report, I in- troduce a new method of estimating the group velocity that includes an estimate of uncertainty. The method is similar to the conventional filter bank method, but uses a class of functions, called Slepian wavelets, to compute a series of wavelet transforms of the data. Each wavelet transform is mathematically similar to a filter bank, however, the time-frequency tradeoff is optimized. By taking multiple wavelet transforms, I form a population of dispersion estimates from which stan- dard statistical methods can be used to estimate uncertainty. I demonstrate the utility of this new method by applying it to synthetic data as well as ambient-noise surface-wave cross-correlelograms recorded by the University of Nevada Seismic Network.

Impacts of seismic activity on long-term repository performance at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauthier, J.H.; Wilson, M.L.; Borns, D.J.; Arnold, B.W.

1995-01-01

Several effects of seismic activity on the release of radionuclides from a potential repository at Yucca Mountain are quantified. Future seismic events are predicted using data from the seismic hazard analysis conducted for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Phenomenological models are developed, including rockfall (thermal-mechanical and seismic) in unbackfilled emplacement drifts, container damage caused by fault displacement within the repository, and flow-path chance caused by changes in strain. Using the composite-porosity flow model (relatively large-scale, regular percolation), seismic events show little effect on total-system releases; using the weeps flow model (episodic pulses of flow in locally saturated fractures), container damage and flow-path changes cause over an order of magnitude increase in releases. In separate calculations using, more realistic representations of faulting, water-table rise caused by seismically induced changes in strain are seen to be higher than previously estimated by others, but not sufficient to reach a potential repository

A Discrete Element Method Approach to Progressive Localization of Damage in Granular Rocks and Associated Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Vora, H.; Morgan, J.

2017-12-01

Brittle failure in rock under confined biaxial conditions is accompanied by release of seismic energy, known as acoustic emissions (AE). The objective our study is to understand the influence of elastic properties of rock and its stress state on deformation patterns, and associated seismicity in granular rocks. Discrete Element Modeling is used to simulate biaxial tests on granular rocks of defined grain size distribution. Acoustic Energy and seismic moments are calculated from microfracture events as rock is taken to conditions of failure under different confining pressure states. Dimensionless parameters such as seismic b-value and fractal parameter for deformation, D-value, are used to quantify seismic character and distribution of damage in rock. Initial results suggest that confining pressure has the largest control on distribution of induced microfracturing, while fracture energy and seismic magnitudes are highly sensitive to elastic properties of rock. At low confining pressures, localized deformation (low D-values) and high seismic b-values are observed. Deformation at high confining pressures is distributed in nature (high D-values) and exhibit low seismic b-values as shearing becomes the dominant mode of microfracturing. Seismic b-values and fractal D-values obtained from microfracturing exhibit a linear inverse relationship, similar to trends observed in earthquakes. Mode of microfracturing in our simulations of biaxial compression tests show mechanistic similarities to propagation of fractures and faults in nature.

Seismic response and damage detection analyses of an instrumented steel moment-framed building

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, J.E.; Celebi, M.

2006-01-01

The seismic performance of steel moment-framed buildings has been of particular interest since brittle fractures were discovered at the beam-column connections in a number of buildings following the M 6.7 Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. A case study of the seismic behavior of an extensively instrumented 13-story steel moment frame building located in the greater Los Angeles area of California is described herein. Response studies using frequency domain, joint time-frequency, system identification, and simple damage detection analyses are performed using an extensive strong motion dataset dating from 1971 to the present, supported by engineering drawings and results of postearthquake inspections. These studies show that the building's response is more complex than would be expected from its highly symmetrical geometry. The response is characterized by low damping in the fundamental mode, larger accelerations in the middle and lower stories than at the roof and base, extended periods of vibration after the cessation of strong input shaking, beating in the response, elliptical particle motion, and significant torsion during strong shaking at the top of the concrete piers which extend from the basement to the second floor. The analyses conducted indicate that the response of the structure was elastic in all recorded earthquakes to date, including Northridge. Also, several simple damage detection methods employed did not indicate any structural damage or connection fractures. The combination of a large, real structure and low instrumentation density precluded the application of many recently proposed advanced damage detection methods in this case study. Overall, however, the findings of this study are consistent with the limited code-compliant postearthquake intrusive inspections conducted after the Northridge earthquake, which found no connection fractures or other structural damage. ?? ASCE.

Damage severity estimation from the global stiffness decrease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitescu, C; Gillich, G R; Manescu, T; Korka, Z I; Abdel Wahab, M

2017-01-01

In actual damage detection methods, localization and severity estimation can be treated separately. The severity is commonly estimated using fracture mechanics approach, with the main disadvantage of involving empirically deduced relations. In this paper, a damage severity estimator based on the global stiffness reduction is proposed. This feature is computed from the deflections of the intact and damaged beam, respectively. The damage is always located where the bending moment achieves maxima. If the damage is positioned elsewhere on the beam, its effect becomes lower, because the stress is produced by a diminished bending moment. It is shown that the global stiffness reduction produced by a crack is the same for all beams with a similar cross-section, regardless of the boundary conditions. One mathematical relation indicating the severity and another indicating the effect of removing damage from the beam. Measurements on damaged beams with different boundary conditions and cross-sections are carried out, and the location and severity are found using the proposed relations. These comparisons prove that the proposed approach can be used to accurately compute the severity estimator. (paper)

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events during mid-loop operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

1994-08-01

In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1) and the other at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf). Both the Brookhaven and Sandia projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults--so-called ''internal initiators.'' This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling shutdown conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Surry Unit 1. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human error rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Surry have been adopted here, so that the results of the two studies can be as comparable as possible. Both the Brookhaven study and this study examine only two shutdown plant operating states (POSs) during refueling outages at Surry, called POS 6 and POS 10, which represent mid-loop operation before and after refueling, respectively. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POSs 6 and 10. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency of earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 6 and POS 10 is found to be low in absolute terms, less than 10 -6 /year

Prediction of Seismic Damage-Based Degradation in RC Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Gupta, Vinay K.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

Estimation of structural damage from known increase in the fundamental period of a structure after an earthquake or prediction of degradation of stiffness and strength for known damage requires reliable correlations between these response functionals. This study proposes a modified Clough-Johnsto...

Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yong; Shi, Bao-Ping; Sun, Liang

2008-03-01

In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismicity model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.

Role of seismic PRA in seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.

1985-01-01

This paper highlights the important roles that seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) can play in the seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants. If a seismic PRA has been performed for a plant, its results can be utilized to evaluate the seismic capability beyond the safe shutdown event (SSE). Seismic fragilities of key structures and equipment, fragilities of dominant plant damage states and the frequencies of occurrence of these plant damage states are reviewed to establish the seismic safety of the plant beyond the SSE level. Guidelines for seismic margin reviews and upgrading may be developed by first identifying the generic classes of structures and equipment that have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in the completed seismic PRAs, studying the underlying causes for their contribution and examining why certain other items (e.g., piping) have not proved to be high-risk-contributors

Types of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone

Science.gov (United States)

Hopper, M.G.; Algermissen, S.T.

1984-01-01

In the winter of 1811–1812 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes, Io ≥ VIII, occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi on the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The section of this poster titled "Seismic history of the New Madrid region" describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today?

Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Masterlark, Timothy; Donovan, Theodore; Feigl, Kurt L.; Haney, Matt; Thurber, Clifford H.; Tung, Sui

2016-01-01

The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. G. Tanner

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.. Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion, 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion, and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions

Seismic Capacity Estimation of Steel Piping Elbow under Low-cycle Fatigue Loading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeon, Bub Gyu; Kim, Sung Wan; Choi, Hyoung Suk; Kim, Nam Sik [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Hahm, Dae Gi [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In some cases, this large relative displacement can increase seismic risk of the isolated facility. Especially, a inelastic behavior of crossover piping system to connect base isolated building and fixed base building can caused by a large relative displacement. Therefore, seismic capacity estimation for isolated piping system is needed to increase safety of nuclear power plant under seismic condition. Dynamic behavior analysis of piping system under seismic condition using shake table tests was performed by Touboul et al in 1995. In accordance with their study, plastic behavior could be occurred at pipe elbow under seismic condition. Experimental researches for dynamic behavior of typical piping system in nuclear power plant have been performed for several years by JNES(Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization) and NUPEC(Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation). A low cycle ratcheting fatigue test was performed with scaled model of elbow which is a weakest component in piping system by Mizuno et al. In-plane cyclic loading tests under internal pressure condition were performed to evaluate the seismic capacity of the steel piping elbow. Leakage phenomenon occurred on and near the crown in piping elbow. Those cracks grew up in axial direction. The fatigue curve was estimated from test results. In the fatigue curve, loading amplitude exponentially decreased as the number of cycles increased. A FEM model of piping elbow was modified with test results. The relationships between displacement and force from tests and numerical analysis was well matched.

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-06-01

Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

2017-12-01

While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

2014-12-01

The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

Estimation of historical earthquake intensities and intensity-PGA relationship for wooden house damages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, In-Kil; Seo, Jeong-Moon

2002-01-01

A series of tests and dynamic analyses on Korean traditional wooden houses was performed for the intensity estimation of the typical large historical earthquake records. Static and cyclic lateral load tests on the wooden frames were performed to assess the lateral load capacity of wooden frames. The shaking table tests on two 1:4 scaled models of a Korean ancient commoner's house made of fresh pine lumber were performed. Typical earthquake time histories recorded on soil and rock sites were used as input for the tests. The prototypical wooden house was analyzed for multiple time histories which match Ohsaki's ground response spectra. Seismic analyses comprise the aging of lumber and different soil condition. The relationship between the earthquake intensity and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is proposed for the wooden house damages based on the results of this study. The intensity of major Korean historical earthquake records related with house collapses was quantitatively estimated to be MM VIII

Estimation of changes in saturation and pressure from 4D seismic AVO and time-shift analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trani, M.; Arts, R.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Brouwer, J.

2011-01-01

A reliable estimate of reservoir pressure and fluid saturation changes from time-lapse seismic data is difficult to obtain. Existing methods generally suffer from leakage between the estimated parameters. We propose a new method using different combinations of time-lapse seismic attributes based on

Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

Science.gov (United States)

Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

2016-04-01

is seismic moment density (Mo/m3) and V stim is stimulated rock volume (m3). Mopossible = D ∗ V stim(1) We applied this conceptual model to real microseismic data set from Basel EGS project where several induced seismicity with large magnitude occurred and brought constructive damage. Using the hypocenter location determined by the researcher of Tohoku Univ., Japan and moment magnitude estimated from Geothermal Explorers Ltd., operating company, we were able to estimate reasonable seismic moment density meaning that one representative parameter exists and can characterize seismic activity at Basel at each time step. With stimulated rock volume which was also inferred from microseismic information, we estimated possible seismic moment and assess the difference with observed value. Possible seismic moment significantly increased after shut-in when the seismic cloud (stimulated zone) mostly progressed, resulting that the difference with the observed cumulative seismic moment automatically became larger. This suggests that there is moderate seismic moment which will be released in near future. In next few hours, the largest event actually occurred. Therefore, our proposed model was successfully able to forecast occurrence of the large events. Furthermore, best forecast of maximum magnitude was Mw 3 level and the largest event was Mw 3.41, showing reasonable performance in terms of quantitative forecast in magnitude. Our attempt to assess the seismic activity from microseismic information was successful and it also suggested magnitude release can be correlate with the expansion of seismic cloud as the definition of possible seismic moment model indicates. This relationship has been observed in microseismic observational study and several previous study also suggested their correlation with stress released rock volume. Our model showed harmonic results with these studies and provide practical method having clear physical meaning to assess the seismic activity in real

Evaluation of Seismic Hazards at California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, M. K.

2005-12-01

The California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) has responsibility for design, construction, and maintenance of approximately 12,000 state bridges. CALTRANS also provides oversight for similar activities for 12,200 bridges owned by local agencies throughout the state. California is subjected to a M6 or greater seismic event every few years. Recent earthquakes include the 1971 Mw6.6 San Fernando earthquake which struck north of Los Angeles and prompted engineers to begin retrofitting existing bridges and re-examine the way bridges are detailed to improve their response to earthquakes, the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake which destroyed the Cypress Freeway and damaged the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, and the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake in the Los Angeles area which heavily damaged four major freeways. Since CALTRANS' seismic performance goal is to ensure life-safety needs are met for the traveling public during an earthquake, estimating earthquake magnitude, peak bedrock acceleration, and determining if special seismic considerationsare needed at specific bridge sites are critical. CALTRANS is currently developing a fourth generation seismic hazard map to be used for estimating these parameters. A deterministic approach has been used to develop this map. Late-Quaternary-age faults are defined as the expected seismic sources. Caltrans requires site-specific studies to determine potential for liquefaction, seismically induced landslides, and surface fault rupture. If potential for one of these seismic hazards exists, the hazard is mitigated by avoidance, removal, or accommodated through design. The action taken, while complying with the Department's "no collapse" requirement, depends upon many factors, including cost.

Validation of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellingwood, B.

1994-01-01

A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear plant requires identification and information regarding the seismic hazard at the plant site, dominant accident sequences leading to core damage, and structure and equipment fragilities. Uncertainties are associated with each of these ingredients of a PRA. Sources of uncertainty due to seismic hazard and assumptions underlying the component fragility modeling may be significant contributors to uncertainty in estimates of core damage probability. Design and construction errors also may be important in some instances. When these uncertainties are propagated through the PRA, the frequency distribution of core damage probability may span three orders of magnitude or more. This large variability brings into question the credibility of PRA methods and the usefulness of insights to be gained from a PRA. The sensitivity of accident sequence probabilities and high-confidence, low probability of failure (HCLPF) plant fragilities to seismic hazard and fragility modeling assumptions was examined for three nuclear power plants. Mean accident sequence probabilities were found to be relatively insensitive (by a factor of two or less) to: uncertainty in the coefficient of variation (logarithmic standard deviation) describing inherent randomness in component fragility; truncation of lower tail of fragility; uncertainty in random (non-seismic) equipment failures (e.g., diesel generators); correlation between component capacities; and functional form of fragility family. On the other hand, the accident sequence probabilities, expressed in the form of a frequency distribution, are affected significantly by the seismic hazard modeling, including slopes of seismic hazard curves and likelihoods assigned to those curves

Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

1996-07-01

This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates

Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

1996-07-01

This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

Uses of probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard and nuclear power plants in the US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiter, L.

1983-01-01

The use of probabilistic estimates is playing an increased role in the review of seismic hazard at nuclear power plants. The NRC Geosciences Branch emphasis has been on using these estimates in a relative rather than absolute manner and to gain insight on other approaches. Examples of this use include estimates to determine design levels, to determine equivalent hazard at different sites, to help define more realistic seismotectonic provinces, and to assess implied levels of acceptable risk using deterministic methods. Increased use of probabilistic estimates is expected. Probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard have a potential for misuse, however, and their successful integration into decision making requires they not be divorced from physical insight and scientific intuition

How to eliminate non-damaging earthquakes from the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)-A comprehensive procedure with site-specific application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2009-01-01

The results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses are frequently presented in terms of uniform hazard spectra or hazard curves with spectral accelerations as the output parameter. The calculation process is based on the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of specified acceleration levels without consideration of the damaging effects of the causative earthquakes. The same applies to the empirical attenuation equations for spectral accelerations used in PSHA models. This makes interpreting and using the results in engineering or risk applications difficult. Uniform hazard spectra and the associated hazard curves may contain a significant amount of contributions of weak, low-energy earthquakes not able to damage the seismically designed structures of nuclear power plants. For the development of realistic engineering designs and for realistic seismic probabilistic risk assessments (seismic PRA) it is necessary to remove the contribution of non-damaging earthquakes from the results of a PSHA. A detailed procedure for the elimination of non-damaging earthquakes based on the CAV (Cumulative Absolute Velocity)-filtering approach was developed and applied to the results of the large-scale PEGASOS probabilistic seismic hazard study for the site of the Goesgen nuclear power plant. The procedure considers the full scope of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability present in the PEGASOS study. It involves the development of a set of empirical correlations for CAV and the subsequent development of a composite distribution for the probability of exceedance of the damaging threshold of 0.16 gs. Additionally, a method was developed to measure the difference in the damaging effects of earthquakes of different strengths by the ratio of a power function of ARIAS-intensity or, in the ideal case, by the ratio of the square roots of the associated strong motion durations. The procedure was applied for the update of the Goesgen seismic PRA and for the confirmation of a

Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, T. J.

2012-04-01

consists of the following four main analysis stages: (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to give the mean occurrence rate of earthquake events having an intensity greater than a threshold value, (ii) structural analysis to estimate the global structural response, given a certain value of seismic intensity, (iii) damage analysis, in which fragility functions are used to express the probability that a building component exceeds a damage state, as a function of the global structural response, (iv) loss analysis, in which the overall performance is assessed based on the damage state of all components. This final step gives estimates of the mean annual frequency with which various repair cost levels (or other decision variables) are exceeded. The realisation of this framework does suggest that risk-based seismic design is now possible. However, comparing current code approaches with the proposed PBEE framework, it becomes apparent that mainstream consulting engineers would have to go through a massive learning curve in order to apply the new procedures in practice. With this in mind, it is proposed that simplified loss-based seismic design procedures are a logical means of helping the engineering profession transition from what are largely deterministic seismic design procedures in current codes, to more rational risk-based seismic design methodologies. Examples are provided to illustrate the likely benefits of adopting loss-based seismic design approaches in practice.

Towards Coupling of Macroseismic Intensity with Structural Damage Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Kouteva, Mihaela; Boshnakov, Krasimir

2016-04-01

Knowledge on basic data of ground motion acceleration time histories during earthquakes is essential to understanding the earthquake resistant behaviour of structures. Peak and integral ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion values (acceleration, velocity and displacement), measures of the frequency content of ground motion, duration of strong shaking and various intensity measures play important roles in seismic evaluation of existing facilities and design of new systems. Macroseismic intensity is an earthquake measure related to seismic hazard and seismic risk description. Having detailed ideas on the correlations between the earthquake damage potential and macroseismic intensity is an important issue in engineering seismology and earthquake engineering. Reliable earthquake hazard estimation is the major prerequisite to successful disaster risk management. The usage of advanced earthquake engineering approaches for structural response modelling is essential for reliable evaluation of the accumulated damages in the existing buildings and structures due to the history of seismic actions, occurred during their lifetime. Full nonlinear analysis taking into account single event or series of earthquakes and the large set of elaborated damage indices are suitable contemporary tools to cope with this responsible task. This paper presents some results on the correlation between observational damage states, ground motion parameters and selected analytical damage indices. Damage indices are computed on the base of nonlinear time history analysis of test reinforced structure, characterising the building stock of the Mediterranean region designed according the earthquake resistant requirements in mid XX-th century.

Pre-stack estimation of time-lapse seismic velocity changes : an example from the Sleipner CO2-sequestration project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaderi, A.; Landro, M.; Ghaderi, A.

2005-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is being injected into a shallow sand formation at around a 1,000 metre depth at the Sleipner Field located in the North Sea. It is expected that the CO 2 injected in the bottom of the formation, will form a plume consisting of CO 2 accumulating in thin lenses during migration up through the reservoir. Several studies have been published using stacked seismic data from 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2002. A thorough analysis of post-stack seismic data from the Sleipner CO2-Sequestration Pilot Project was conducted. Interpretation of seismic data is usually done on post-stack data. For a given subsurface reflection point, seismic data are acquired for various incidence angles, typically 40 angles. These 40 seismic signals are stacked together in order to reduce noise. The term pre-stack refers to seismic data prior to this step. For hydrocarbon-related 4-dimensional seismic studies, travel time shift estimations have been used. This paper compared pre-stack and post-stack estimation of average velocity changes based on measured 4-dimensional travel time shifts. It is more practical to compare estimated velocity changes than the actual travel time changes, since the time shifts vary with offset for pre-stack time-lapse seismic analysis. It was concluded that the pre-stack method gives smaller velocity changes when estimated between two key horizons. Therefore, pre-stack travel time analysis in addition to conventional post-stack analysis is recommended. 6 refs., 12 figs

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

1994-08-01

In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ''internal initiators.'' This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10 -7 /year

Adaptive multiscale MCMC algorithm for uncertainty quantification in seismic parameter estimation

KAUST Repository

Tan, Xiaosi; Gibson, Richard L.; Leung, Wing Tat; Efendiev, Yalchin R.

2014-01-01

problem. In this paper, we consider Bayesian inversion for the parameter estimation in seismic wave propagation. The Bayes' theorem allows writing the posterior distribution via the likelihood function and the prior distribution where the latter represents

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

2016-12-01

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

Local amplification of seismic waves from the Denali earthquake and damaging seiches in Lake Union, Seattle, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Barberopoulou, A.; Qamar, A.; Pratt, T.L.; Creager, K.C.; Steele, W.P.

2004-01-01

The Mw7.9 Denali, Alaska earthquake of 3 November, 2002, caused minor damage to at least 20 houseboats in Seattle, Washington by initiating water waves in Lake Union. These water waves were likely initiated during the large amplitude seismic surface waves from this earthquake. Maps of spectral amplification recorded during the Denali earthquake on the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) strong-motion instruments show substantially increased shear and surface wave amplitudes coincident with the Seattle sedimentary basin. Because Lake Union is situated on the Seattle basin, the size of the water waves may have been increased by local amplification of the seismic waves by the basin. Complete hazard assessments require understanding the causes of these water waves during future earthquakes. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Some preliminary results of a worldwide seismicity estimation: a case study of seismic hazard evaluation in South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. V. Christova

2000-06-01

Full Text Available Global data have been widely used for seismicity and seismic hazard assessment by seismologists. In the present study we evaluate worldwide seismicity in terms of maps of maximum observed magnitude (Mmax, seismic moment (M 0 and seismic moment rate (M 0S. The data set used consists of a complete and homogeneous global catalogue of shallow (h £ 60 km earthquakes of magnitude MS ³ 5.5 for the time period 1894-1992. In order to construct maps of seismicity and seismic hazard the parameters a and b derived from the magnitude-frequency relationship were estimated by both: a the least squares, and b the maximum likelihood, methods. The values of a and b were determined considering circles centered at each grid point 1° (of a mesh 1° ´1° and of varying radius, which starts from 30 km and moves with a step of 10 km. Only a and b values which fulfill some predefined conditions were considered in the further procedure for evaluating the seismic hazard maps. The obtained worldwide M max distribution in general delineates the contours of the plate boundaries. The highest values of M max observed are along the circum-Pacific belt and in the Himalayan area. The subduction plate boundaries are characterized by the largest amount of M 0 , while areas of continental collision are next. The highest values of seismic moment rate (per 1 year and per equal area of 10 000 km 2 are found in the Southern Himalayas. The western coasts of U.S.A., Northwestern Canada and Alaska, the Indian Ocean and the eastern rift of Africa are characterized by high values of M 0 , while most of the Pacific subduction zones have lower values of seismic moment rate. Finally we analyzed the seismic hazard in South America comparing the predicted by the NUVEL1 model convergence slip rate between Nazca and South America plates with the average slip rate due to earthquakes. This consideration allows for distinguishing between zones of high and low coupling along the studied convergence

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Seismic Methods of Identifying Explosions and Estimating Their Yield

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Pasyanos, M.; Pyle, M. L.; Myers, S. C.; Mellors, R. J.; Pitarka, A.; Rodgers, A. J.; Hauk, T. F.

2014-12-01

Seismology plays a key national security role in detecting, locating, identifying and determining the yield of explosions from a variety of causes, including accidents, terrorist attacks and nuclear testing treaty violations (e.g. Koper et al., 2003, 1999; Walter et al. 1995). A collection of mainly empirical forensic techniques has been successfully developed over many years to obtain source information on explosions from their seismic signatures (e.g. Bowers and Selby, 2009). However a lesson from the three DPRK declared nuclear explosions since 2006, is that our historic collection of data may not be representative of future nuclear test signatures (e.g. Selby et al., 2012). To have confidence in identifying future explosions amongst the background of other seismic signals, and accurately estimate their yield, we need to put our empirical methods on a firmer physical footing. Goals of current research are to improve our physical understanding of the mechanisms of explosion generation of S- and surface-waves, and to advance our ability to numerically model and predict them. As part of that process we are re-examining regional seismic data from a variety of nuclear test sites including the DPRK and the former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)). Newer relative location and amplitude techniques can be employed to better quantify differences between explosions and used to understand those differences in term of depth, media and other properties. We are also making use of the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) at NNSS. The SPE chemical explosions are explicitly designed to improve our understanding of emplacement and source material effects on the generation of shear and surface waves (e.g. Snelson et al., 2013). Finally we are also exploring the value of combining seismic information with other technologies including acoustic and InSAR techniques to better understand the source characteristics. Our goal is to improve our explosion models

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Seismic fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems including the impact of differential ground subsidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pineda Porras, Omar Andrey [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ordaz, Mario [UNAM, MEXICO CITY

2009-01-01

Though Differential Ground Subsidence (DGS) impacts the seismic response of segmented buried pipelines augmenting their vulnerability, fragility formulations to estimate repair rates under such condition are not available in the literature. Physical models to estimate pipeline seismic damage considering other cases of permanent ground subsidence (e.g. faulting, tectonic uplift, liquefaction, and landslides) have been extensively reported, not being the case of DGS. The refinement of the study of two important phenomena in Mexico City - the 1985 Michoacan earthquake scenario and the sinking of the city due to ground subsidence - has contributed to the analysis of the interrelation of pipeline damage, ground motion intensity, and DGS; from the analysis of the 48-inch pipeline network of the Mexico City's Water System, fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems for two DGS levels are proposed. The novel parameter PGV{sup 2}/PGA, being PGV peak ground velocity and PGA peak ground acceleration, has been used as seismic parameter in these formulations, since it has shown better correlation to pipeline damage than PGV alone according to previous studies. By comparing the proposed fragilities, it is concluded that a change in the DGS level (from Low-Medium to High) could increase the pipeline repair rates (number of repairs per kilometer) by factors ranging from 1.3 to 2.0; being the higher the seismic intensity the lower the factor.

Life-cycle cost assessment of seismically base-isolated structures in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hao; Weng, Dagen; Lu, Xilin; Lu, Liang

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The life-cycle cost of seismic base-isolated nuclear power plants is modeled. • The change law of life-cycle cost with seismic fortification intensity is studied. • The initial cost of laminated lead rubber bearings can be expressed as the function of volume. • The initial cost of a damper can be expressed as the function of its maximum displacement and tonnage. • The use of base-isolation can greatly reduce the expected damage cost, which leads to the reduction of the life-cycle cost. -- Abstract: Evaluation of seismically base-isolated structural life-cycle cost is the key problem in performance based seismic design. A method is being introduced to address the life-cycle cost of base-isolated reinforced concrete structures in nuclear power plants. Each composition of life-cycle cost is analyzed including the initial construction cost, the isolators cost and the excepted damage cost over life-cycle of the structure. The concept of seismic intensity is being used to estimate the expected damage cost, greatly simplifying the calculation. Moreover, French Cruas nuclear power plant is employed as an example to assess its life-cycle cost, compared to the cost of non-isolated plant at the same time. The results show that the proposed method is efficient and the expected damage cost is enormously reduced because of the application of isolators, which leads to the reduction of the life-cycle cost of nuclear power plants

In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region...part II

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.

1976-01-01

Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for determining the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. Currently a program is in progress to measure seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region at an estimated 150 sites. At each site seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill hole cuttings, undisturbed samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the site. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. The broad data base available in the San Francisco Bay region suggests using the area as a pilot area for the development of general techniques applicable to other areas.

Seismic ground motion and hazard assessment of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, southeastern Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amponsah, P.E.; Banoeng-Yakubo, B.K.; Asiedu, D.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

2008-08-01

The seismic ground motion of the Greater Accra Metropolitan area has been computed and the hazard zones assessed using a deterministic hybrid approach based on the modal summation and finite difference methods. The seismic ground motion along four profiles located in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area has been modelled using the 1939 earthquake of magnitude 6.5(M L ) as the scenario earthquake. Synthetic seismic waveforms from which parameters for engineering design such as peak ground acceleration, velocity and spectral amplifications have been produced along the geological cross sections. From the seismograms computed, the seismic hazard of the metropolis, expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity have been estimated. The peak ground acceleration estimated in the study ranges from 0.14 - 0.57 g and the peak ground velocity from 9.2 - 37.1cms -1 . The presence of low velocity sediments gave rise to high peak values and amplifications. The maximum peak ground accelerations estimated are located in areas with low velocity formations such as colluvium, continental and marine deposits. Areas in the metropolis underlain by unconsolidated sediments have been classified as the maximum damage potential zone and those underlain by highly consolidated geological materials are classified as low damage potential zone. The results of the numerical simulation have been extended to all areas in the metropolis with similar geological formation. (author)

Methodology for seismic PSA of NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jirsa, P.

1999-09-01

A general methodology is outlined for seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The main objectives of seismic PSA include: description of the course of an event; understanding the most probable failure sequences; gaining insight into the overall probability of reactor core damage; identification of the main seismic risk contributors; identification of the range of peak ground accelerations contributing significantly to the plant risk; and comparison of the seismic risk with risks from other events. The results of seismic PSA are typically compared with those of internal PSA and of PSA of other external events. If the results of internal and external PSA are available, sensitivity studies and cost benefit analyses are performed prior to any decision regarding corrective actions. If the seismic PSA involves analysis of the containment, useful information can be gained regarding potential seismic damage of the containment. (P.A.)

Identification of Damage in IR-Structures from Earthquake Records - Optimal Location of Sensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Cakmak, A. S.

A method for localization of structural damage is seismically excited RC-structures using measured acceleration response time series is presented. from measured response from some or all storeys, the two lowest smoothed eigenfrequencies and mode shape coordinates are estimated. these estimates ar...

Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

2010-01-01

Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly

Seismic damage to structures in the M s6.5 Ludian earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hao; Xie, Quancai; Dai, Boyang; Zhang, Haoyu; Chen, Hongfu

2016-03-01

On 3 August 2014, the Ludian earthquake struck northwest Yunnan Province with a surface wave magnitude of 6.5. This moderate earthquake unexpectedly caused high fatalities and great economic loss. Four strong motion stations were located in the areas with intensity V, VI, VII and IX, near the epicentre. The characteristics of the ground motion are discussed herein, including 1) ground motion was strong at a period of less than 1.4 s, which covered the natural vibration period of a large number of structures; and 2) the release energy was concentrated geographically. Based on materials collected during emergency building inspections, the damage patterns of adobe, masonry, timber frame and reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures in areas with different intensities are summarised. Earthquake damage matrices of local buildings are also given for fragility evaluation and earthquake damage prediction. It is found that the collapse ratios of RC frame and confined masonry structures based on the new design code are significantly lower than non-seismic buildings. However, the RC frame structures still failed to achieve the `strong column, weak beam' design target. Traditional timber frame structures with a light infill wall showed good aseismic performance.

High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko

2016-10-01

We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

Criterions for fixing regulatory seismic acceleration coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costes, D.

1988-03-01

Acceleration coeffficients to be taken into account in seismic areas for calculation of structures are defined in national seismic regulations. Joined to the described qualitative requirements, these coefficients represent a balance between precaution costs and avoided damages, both in terms of material repairing costs and damage to human life. Persons in charge of fixing these coefficients must be informed of corresponding quantitative aspects. Data on seismic motions occurrencies and consequences are gathered here and convoluted to mean damage evaluations. Indications on precaution costs are joined, which shows that currently recommended levels of seismic motions are high relatively to financial profitability, and represent in fact an aethical choice about human life value [fr

USE OF BOUNDING ANALYSES TO ESTIMATE THE PREFORMANCE OF A SEISMICALLY ISOLATED STRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gökhan ÖZDEMİR

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Current design approach for seismic isolated structures is to perform bounding analyses. These analyses provide an envelope for the response of the seismic isolated structure rather than focusing on the actual performance. In this study, the success of bounding analyses to estimate performance of a seismic isolated structure, in which the isolation is provided by means of lead rubber bearings (LRBs, is evaluated in a comparative manner. For this purpose, nonlinear response history analyses were performed under the effect of bidirectional ground motion excitations. In bounding analyses, non-deteriorating hysteretic representations were used to model the hysteretic behavior of LRBs. On the other hand, to estimate the actual performance of both the superstructure and isolator units, deteriorating hysteretic idealizations were employed. The deterioration in strength of LRBs was defined as a function of temperature rise in the lead core. The analyzed structure is an existing seismically isolated hospital building and analytically modeled in accordance with its reported design properties for both isolation units and superstructure. Results obtained from analyses where LRBs are idealized by both deteriorating and non-deteriorating hysteretic representations are used in the comparisons. The response quantities used in the comparisons are maximum isolator displacement, maximum isolator force, maximum absolute floor acceleration, and maximum relative story displacements. In an average sense, bounding analyses is found to provide conservative estimates for the selected response quantities and fulfills its intended purpose. However, it is revealed that there may be individual cases where bounding analyses fails to provide a safe envelope.

Induced Seismicity Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, S. R.; Jarpe, S.; Harben, P.

2014-12-01

There are many seismological aspects associated with monitoring of permanent storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in geologic formations. Many of these include monitoring underground gas migration through detailed tomographic studies of rock properties, integrity of the cap rock and micro seismicity with time. These types of studies require expensive deployments of surface and borehole sensors in the vicinity of the CO2 injection wells. Another problem that may exist in CO2 sequestration fields is the potential for damaging induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into the geologic reservoir. Seismic hazard monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields requires a seismic network over a spatially larger region possibly having stations in remote settings. Expensive observatory-grade seismic systems are not necessary for seismic hazard deployments or small-scale tomographic studies. Hazard monitoring requires accurate location of induced seismicity to magnitude levels only slightly less than that which can be felt at the surface (e.g. magnitude 1), and the frequencies of interest for tomographic analysis are ~1 Hz and greater. We have developed a seismo/acoustic smart sensor system that can achieve the goals necessary for induced seismicity monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields. The unit is inexpensive, lightweight, easy to deploy, can operate remotely under harsh conditions and features 9 channels of recording (currently 3C 4.5 Hz geophone, MEMS accelerometer and microphone). An on-board processor allows for satellite transmission of parameter data to a processing center. Continuous or event-detected data is kept on two removable flash SD cards of up to 64+ Gbytes each. If available, data can be transmitted via cell phone modem or picked up via site visits. Low-power consumption allows for autonomous operation using only a 10 watt solar panel and a gel-cell battery. The system has been successfully tested for long-term (> 6 months) remote operations over a wide range

Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores R, J.H.

1992-01-01

The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

Mine-induced seismicity at East-Rand proprietary mines

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Milev, AM

1995-09-01

Full Text Available Mining results in seismic activity of varying intensity, from small micro seismic events to larger seismic events, often associated with significant seismic induced damages. This work deals with the understanding of the present seismicity...

Seismogenic zonation and seismic hazard estimates in a Southern Italy area (Northern Apulia characterised by moderate seismicity rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Del Gaudio

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The northernmost part of Apulia, in Southern Italy, is an emerged portion of the Adriatic plate, which in past centuries was hit by at least three disastrous earthquakes and at present is occasionally affected by seismic events of moderate energy. In the latest seismic hazard assessment carried out in Italy at national scale, the adopted seismogenic zonation (named ZS9 has defined for this area a single zone including parts of different structural units (chain, foredeep, foreland. However significant seismic behaviour differences were revealed among them by our recent studies and, therefore, we re-evaluated local seismic hazard by adopting a zonation, named ZNA, modifying the ZS9 to separate areas of Northern Apulia belonging to different structural domains. To overcome the problem of the limited datasets of historical events available for small zones having a relatively low rate of earthquake recurrence, an approach was adopted that integrates historical and instrumental event data. The latter were declustered with a procedure specifically devised to process datasets of low to moderate magnitude shocks. Seismicity rates were then calculated following alternative procedural choices, according to a "logic tree" approach, to explore the influence of epistemic uncertainties on the final results and to evaluate, among these, the importance of the uncertainty in seismogenic zonation. The comparison between the results obtained using zonations ZNA and ZS9 confirms the well known "spreading effect" that the use of larger seismogenic zones has on hazard estimates. This effect can locally determine underestimates or overestimates by amounts that make necessary a careful reconsideration of seismic classification and building code application.

Estimation of steam-chamber extent using 4D seismic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanaka, M. [Waseda Univ., Waseda (Japan); Endo, K. [Japan Canada Oil Sands Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Onozuka, S. [Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2009-07-01

The steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technique is among the most effective steam injection methods and is widely applied in Canadian oil-sand reservoirs. The SAGD technology uses hot steam to decrease bitumen viscosity and allow it to flow. Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited (JACOS) has been developing an oil-sand reservoir in the Alberta's Hangingstone area since 1997. This paper focused on the western area of the reservoir and reported on a study that estimated the steam-chamber extent generated by horizontal well pairs. It listed steam injection start time for each well of the western area. Steam-chamber distribution was determined by distinguishing high temperature and high pore-pressure zones from low temperature and high pore-pressure zones. The bitumen recovery volume in the steam-chamber zone was estimated and compared with the actual cumulative production. This paper provided details of the methodology and interpretation procedures for the quantitative method to interpret 4D-seismic data for a SAGD process. A procedure to apply a petrophysical model was demonstrated first by scaling laboratory measurements to field-scale applications, and then by decoupling pressure and temperature effects. The first 3D seismic data in this study were already affected by higher pressures and temperatures. 11 refs., 3 tabs., 12 figs.

Improving slowness estimate stability and visualization using limited sensor pair correlation on seismic arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbons, Steven J.; Näsholm, S. P.; Ruigrok, E.; Kværna, T.

2018-04-01

Seismic arrays enhance signal detection and parameter estimation by exploiting the time-delays between arriving signals on sensors at nearby locations. Parameter estimates can suffer due to both signal incoherence, with diminished waveform similarity between sensors, and aberration, with time-delays between coherent waveforms poorly represented by the wave-front model. Sensor-to-sensor correlation approaches to parameter estimation have an advantage over direct beamforming approaches in that individual sensor-pairs can be omitted without necessarily omitting entirely the data from each of the sensors involved. Specifically, we can omit correlations between sensors for which signal coherence in an optimal frequency band is anticipated to be poor or for which anomalous time-delays are anticipated. In practice, this usually means omitting correlations between more distant sensors. We present examples from International Monitoring System seismic arrays with poor parameter estimates resulting when classical f-k analysis is performed over the full array aperture. We demonstrate improved estimates and slowness grid displays using correlation beamforming restricted to correlations between sufficiently closely spaced sensors. This limited sensor-pair correlation (LSPC) approach has lower slowness resolution than would ideally be obtained by considering all sensor-pairs. However, this ideal estimate may be unattainable due to incoherence and/or aberration and the LSPC estimate can often exploit all channels, with the associated noise-suppression, while mitigating the complications arising from correlations between very distant sensors. The greatest need for the method is for short-period signals on large aperture arrays although we also demonstrate significant improvement for secondary regional phases on a small aperture array. LSPC can also provide a robust and flexible approach to parameter estimation on three-component seismic arrays.

Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.

2009-04-01

By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios

Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Cannizzaro

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

Yield Estimation for Semipalatinsk Underground Nuclear Explosions Using Seismic Surface-wave Observations at Near-regional Distances

Science.gov (United States)

Adushkin, V. V.

- A statistical procedure is described for estimating the yields of underground nuclear tests at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site using the peak amplitudes of short-period surface waves observed at near-regional distances (Δ Semipalatinsk explosions, including the Soviet JVE explosion of September 14, 1988, and it is demonstrated that it provides seismic estimates of explosion yield which are typically within 20% of the yields determined for these same explosions using more accurate, non-seismic techniques based on near-source observations.

Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2000-01-10

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

Application on technique of joint time-frequency analysis of seismic signal's first arrival estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Chaoyang; Liu Junmin; Fan Yanfang; Ji Guohua

2008-01-01

Joint time-frequency analysis is conducted to construct one joint density function of time and frequency. It can open out one signal's frequency components and their evolvements. It is the new evolvement of Fourier analysis. In this paper, according to the characteristic of seismic signal's noise, one estimation method of seismic signal's first arrival based on triple correlation of joint time-frequency spectrum is introduced, and the results of experiment and conclusion are presented. (authors)

Framework for estimating response time data to conduct a seismic human reliability analysis - its feasibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jinkyun; Kin, Yochan; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

2014-01-01

This is because the PSA has been used for several decades as the representative tool to evaluate the safety of NPPs. To this end, it is inevitable to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) in conducting important tasks being considered in the PSA framework (i.e., HFEs; human failure events), which are able to significantly affect the safety of NPPs. In addition, it should be emphasized that the provision of a realistic human performance data is an important precondition for calculating HEPs under a seismic condition. Unfortunately, it seems that HRA methods being currently used for calculating HEPs under a seismic event do not properly consider the performance variation of human operators. For this reason, in this paper, a framework to estimate response time data that are critical for calculating HEPs is suggested with respect to a seismic intensity. This paper suggested a systematic framework for estimating response time data that would be one of the most critical for calculating HEPs. Although extensive review of existing literatures is indispensable for identifying response times of human operators who have to conduct a series of tasks prescribed in procedures based on a couple of wrong indications, it is highly expected that response time data for seismic HRA can be properly secured through revisiting response time data collected from diverse situations without concerning a seismic event

Study on the estimation of safety margin of piping system against seismic loading. 1st report, damage observations of the straight pipes subjected to cyclic load amplitudes of various levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Izumi; Otani, Akihito; Shiratori, Masaki

2010-01-01

Fatigue failure accompanied by ratchet deformation is well known as one of the failure modes of pressurized pipes under high-level cyclic load. In this research, the process of failure of such pipes was investigated based on the experimental result in which a straight pipe failed by repeatedly increasing cyclic input displacement amplitude in stages. The strain behavior, moment-deflection relationship, and observed damage were compared with the stress level used in the seismic design of the piping system. As a result, no significant damage was observed and the moment-deflection relationship remained almost linear within the primary stress limit of 3S m , although the strain showed elastic-plastic behavior at some measurement points. In the experiment, damage was observed at the applied load levels of approximately 5S m of the primary stress, and 0.15 and more of the fatigue damage index, i.e., the usage factor based on the design. The test results showed that there is a certain time margin before failure occurs to actual piping systems, compared with its designed stress limitation. (author)

Development of damage probability matrices based on Greek earthquake damage data

Science.gov (United States)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2011-03-01

A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio α g/ a o, where α g is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and a o is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models.

Estimating seismic moment magnitude (Mw) of tremor bursts in northern Cascadia: Implications for the “seismic efficiency” of episodic tremor and slip

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, Honn; Wang, Kelin; Dragert, Herb; Kao, Jason Y.; Rogers, Garry

2010-10-01

We develop a method to estimate the seismic moments of deep non-volcanic tremor bursts observed in northern Cascadia. For each tremor burst, the maximum amplitudes at individual stations within a time window ±5 s around the predicted arrivals of the S phase are measured and compared to the maximum S amplitudes measured from synthetic seismograms. The proposed method is thoroughly calibrated using 464 local earthquakes and the results show excellent consistency between the reported ML and the estimated Mw. We apply the method to northern Cascadia tremors and infer that most bursts have Mw˜1.0-1.7. The corresponding b value appears to be 1, consistent with that of ordinary earthquakes but over a narrower Mw range. Comparison of cumulative tremor Mw and the Mw estimated from the accompanying slow slip suggests that the “seismic efficiency” of the Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) is of the order of 0.1% or less.

Seismic Response Analysis of Concrete Lining Structure in Large Underground Powerhouse

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaowei Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the dynamic damage constitutive model of concrete material and seismic rock-lining structure interaction analysis method, the seismic response of lining structure in large underground powerhouse is studied in this paper. In order to describe strain rate dependence and fatigue damage of concrete material under cyclic loading, a dynamic constitutive model for concrete lining considering tension and shear anisotropic damage is presented, and the evolution equations of damage variables are derived. The proposed model is of simple form and can be programmed into finite element procedure easily. In order to describe seismic interaction characteristics of the surrounding rock and lining, an explicit dynamic contact analysis method considering bond and damage characteristics of contact face between the surrounding rock and lining is proposed, and this method can integrate directly without iteration. The proposed method is applied to seismic stability calculation of Yingxiuwan Underground Powerhouse, results reveal that the amplitude and duration of input seismic wave determine the damage degree of lining structure, the damage zone of lining structure is mainly distributed in its arch, and the contact face damage has great influence on the stability of the lining structure.

Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

2017-08-29

In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

Gas turbine engine turbine blade damaging estimate in maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ель-Хожайрі Хусейн

2004-01-01

Full Text Available  The factors determining character and intensity of corrosive damages of gas turbine blades are analyzed in the article. The classification of detrimental impurities polluting gas turbine airflow duct and injuring blade erosion damages are given. Common features of the method of turbine blade corrosive damage estimation are shown in the article.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

2016-08-01

Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

Fatigue-Damage Estimation and Control for Wind Turbines

OpenAIRE

Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus

2015-01-01

How can fatigue-damage for control of wind turbines be represented? Fatigue-damage is indeed a crucial factor in structures such as wind turbines that are exposed to turbulent and rapidly changing wind flow conditions. This is relevant both in their design stage and during the control of their operation. Accordingly, the most recognized methods of fatigue-damage estimation are discussed in this thesis.In wind energy conversion systems there is an intrinsic trade-off between power generation m...

Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonites

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, L.; Frehner, M.; Sauer, K. M.; Toy, V.; Guerin-Marthe, S.; Boulton, C. J.

2017-12-01

Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonitesLudmila Adam1, Marcel Frehner2, Katrina Sauer3, Virginia Toy3, Simon Guerin-Marthe4, Carolyn Boulton5(1) University of Auckland, New Zealand, (2) ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (3) University of Otago, New Zealand (4) Durham University, Earth Sciences, United Kingdom (5) Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Quartzo-feldspathic mylonites and schists are the main contributors to seismic wave anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault (New Zealand). We must determine how the physical properties of rocks like these influence elastic wave anisotropy if we want to unravel both the reasons for heterogeneous seismic wave propagation, and interpret deformation processes in fault zones. To study such controls on velocity anisotropy we can: 1) experimentally measure elastic wave anisotropy on cores at in-situ conditions or 2) estimate wave velocities by static (effective medium averaging) or dynamic (finite element) modelling based on EBSD data or photomicrographs. Here we compare all three approaches in study of schist and mylonite samples from the Alpine Fault. Volumetric proportions of intrinsically anisotropic micas in cleavage domains and comparatively isotropic quartz+feldspar in microlithons commonly vary significantly within one sample. Our analysis examines the effects of these phases and their arrangement, and further addresses how heterogeneity influences elastic wave anisotropy. We compare P-wave seismic anisotropy estimates based on millimetres-scale ultrasonic waves under in situ conditions, with simulations that account for micrometre-scale variations in elastic properties of constitutent minerals with the MTEX toolbox and finite-element wave propagation on EBSD images. We observe that the sorts of variations in the distribution of micas and quartz+feldspar within any one of our real core samples can change the elastic wave anisotropy by 10

Estimating the Direct Economic Damage of the Earthquake in Haiti

OpenAIRE

Cavallo, Eduardo; Powell, Andrew; Becerra, Oscar

2010-01-01

This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti’s economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn for a death toll of 250,000, but for several reasons this may be a lower- bound estimate. An ...

Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Saikia, C. K.; Helmberger, D. V.; Stead, R. J.; Woods, B. B.

- It has proven difficult to uniquely untangle the source and propagation effects on the observed seismic data from underground nuclear explosions, even when large quantities of near-source, broadband data are available for analysis. This leads to uncertainties in our ability to quantify the nuclear seismic source function and, consequently the accuracy of seismic yield estimates for underground explosions. Extensive deterministic modeling analyses of the seismic data recorded from underground explosions at a variety of test sites have been conducted over the years and the results of these studies suggest that variations in the seismic source characteristics between test sites may be contributing to the observed differences in the magnitude/yield relations applicable at those sites. This contributes to our uncertainty in the determination of seismic yield estimates for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. In this paper we review issues involving the relationship of Nevada Test Site (NTS) source scaling laws to those at other sites. The Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) indicates that a magnitude (mb) bias (δmb) exists between the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Nevada test site (NTS) in the United States. Generally this δmb is attributed to differential attenuation in the upper-mantle beneath the two test sites. This assumption results in rather large estimates of yield for large mb tunnel shots at Novaya Zemlya. A re-examination of the US testing experiments suggests that this δmb bias can partly be explained by anomalous NTS (Pahute) source characteristics. This interpretation is based on the modeling of US events at a number of test sites. Using a modified Haskell source description, we investigated the influence of the source Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) parameters ψ ∞ , K and B by fitting short- and long-period data simultaneously, including the near-field body and surface waves. In general

Estimation of seismic attenuation of gas hydrate bearing sediments from multi-channel seismic data: A case study from Krishna-Godavari offshore basin

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Dewangan, P.; Mandal, R.; Jaiswal, P.; Ramprasad, T.; Sriram, G.

thickness of water column. The estimated effective Q-values, along the inline and crossline seismic profiles, depend on several factors such as gas hydrate, free gas and the complex fault system. The combined interpretation of the quality factor...

Nondestructive damage detection and evaluation technique for seismically damaged structures

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Yukio; Unjoh, Shigeki; Kondoh, Masuo; Ohsumi, Michio

1999-02-01

The development of quantitative damage detection and evaluation technique, and damage detection technique for invisible damages of structures are required according to the lessons from the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. In this study, two quantitative damage sensing techniques for highway bridge structures are proposed. One method is to measure the change of vibration characteristics of the bridge structure. According to the damage detection test for damaged bridge column by shaking table test, this method can successfully detect the vibration characteristic change caused by damage progress due to increment excitations. The other method is to use self-diagnosis intelligent materials. According to the reinforced concrete beam specimen test, the second method can detect the damage by rupture of intelligent sensors, such as optical fiber or carbon fiber reinforced plastic rod.

Integrating Social impacts on Health and Health-Care Systems in Systemic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz-Plapp, T.; Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.

2012-04-01

This paper presents a new method for modeling health impacts caused by earthquake damage which allows for integrating key social impacts on individual health and health-care systems and for implementing these impacts in quantitative systemic seismic vulnerability analysis. In current earthquake casualty estimation models, demand on health-care systems is estimated by quantifying the number of fatalities and severity of injuries based on empirical data correlating building damage with casualties. The expected number of injured people (sorted by priorities of emergency treatment) is combined together with post-earthquake reduction of functionality of health-care facilities such as hospitals to estimate the impact on healthcare systems. The aim here is to extend these models by developing a combined engineering and social science approach. Although social vulnerability is recognized as a key component for the consequences of disasters, social vulnerability as such, is seldom linked to common formal and quantitative seismic loss estimates of injured people which provide direct impact on emergency health care services. Yet, there is a consensus that factors which affect vulnerability and post-earthquake health of at-risk populations include demographic characteristics such as age, education, occupation and employment and that these factors can aggravate health impacts further. Similarly, there are different social influences on the performance of health care systems after an earthquake both on an individual as well as on an institutional level. To link social impacts of health and health-care services to a systemic seismic vulnerability analysis, a conceptual model of social impacts of earthquakes on health and the health care systems has been developed. We identified and tested appropriate social indicators for individual health impacts and for health care impacts based on literature research, using available European statistical data. The results will be used to

Fe model predicting the increase in seismic resistance induced by the progressive FRP strengthening on already damaged masonry arches subjected to settlement

Science.gov (United States)

Stockdale, G.; Milani, G.

2017-11-01

In seismic regions, the retrofitting of masonry structures subjected to differential foundation settlements is of the upmost importance. This practice however poses significant challenges, most notably in the consideration of historical monuments where the integrity of the original structure must be weighted alongside public safety. Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs), when appropriately applied, provide the potential to balance this duality of heritage preservation and modern safety. Using an advanced FE point of view, this work studies the seismic response of a progressive reinforcement strategy aimed at strengthening and controlling the failure mechanism for masonry arches that exist in a damaged state induced through a differential abutment settlement. A heterogeneous FE approach of a semi-circular block and mortar arch on continuously spreading supports is examined. In this model hinge formation is obtained by assigning a damage plasticity behavior to the mortar joints. Strategically placed FRPs, designed through the utilization of the Italian CNR recommendations for externally bonded FRP systems, are applied through the Abaqus birth and death approach and introduced to the spreading support model after settlement. Finally, the structural behavior of the reinforced and unreinforced models are examined for a seismic response.

Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Atomics International's Nuclear Materials Development Facility in the Santa Susana site, California, as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.

1981-09-01

The potential mass of airborne releases of plutonium (source term) that could result from wind and seismic damage is estimated for the Atomics International Company's Nuclear Materials Development Facility (NMDF) at the Santa Susana site in California. The postulated source terms will be useful as the basis for estimating the potential dose to the maximum exposed individual by inhalation and to the total population living within a prescribed radius of the site. The respirable fraction of airborne particles is thus the principal concern. The estimated source terms are based on the damage ratio, and the potential airborne releases if all enclosures suffer particular levels of damage. In an attempt to provide a realistic range of potential source terms that include most of the normal processing conditions, a best estimate bounded by upper and lower limits is provided. The range of source terms is calculated by combining a high best estimate and a low damage ratio, based on a fraction of enclosures suffering crush or perforation, with the airborne release from enclosures based upon an upper limit, average, and lower limit inventory of dispersible materials at risk. Two throughput levels are considered. The factors used to evaluate the fractional airborne release of materials and the exchange rates between enclosed and exterior atmospheres are discussed. The postulated damage and source terms are discussed for wind and earthquake hazard scenarios in order of their increasing severity

Multi-Level Interval Estimation for Locating damage in Structures by Using Artificial Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan Danguang; Gao Yanhua; Song Junlei

2010-01-01

A new analysis technique, called multi-level interval estimation method, is developed for locating damage in structures. In this method, the artificial neural networks (ANN) analysis method is combined with the statistics theory to estimate the range of damage location. The ANN is multilayer perceptron trained by back-propagation. Natural frequencies and modal shape at a few selected points are used as input to identify the location and severity of damage. Considering the large-scale structures which have lots of elements, multi-level interval estimation method is developed to reduce the estimation range of damage location step-by-step. Every step, estimation range of damage location is obtained from the output of ANN by using the method of interval estimation. The next ANN training cases are selected from the estimation range after linear transform, and the output of new ANN estimation range of damage location will gained a reduced estimation range. Two numerical example analyses on 10-bar truss and 100-bar truss are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Seismic Data Gathering and Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-02-01

Three recent earthquakes in the last seven years have exceeded their design basis earthquake values (so it is implied that damage to SSC’s should have occurred). These seismic events were recorded at North Anna (August 2011, detailed information provided in [Virginia Electric and Power Company Memo]), Fukushima Daichii and Daini (March 2011 [TEPCO 1]), and Kaswazaki-Kariwa (2007, [TEPCO 2]). However, seismic walk downs at some of these plants indicate that very little damage occurred to safety class systems and components due to the seismic motion. This report presents seismic data gathered for two of the three events mentioned above and recommends a path for using that data for two purposes. One purpose is to determine what margins exist in current industry standard seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) tools. The second purpose is the use the data to validated seismic site response tools and SSI tools. The gathered data represents free field soil and in-structure acceleration time histories data. Gathered data also includes elastic and dynamic soil properties and structural drawings. Gathering data and comparing with existing models has potential to identify areas of uncertainty that should be removed from current seismic analysis and SPRA approaches. Removing uncertainty (to the extent possible) from SPRA’s will allow NPP owners to make decisions on where to reduce risk. Once a realistic understanding of seismic response is established for a nuclear power plant (NPP) then decisions on needed protective measures, such as SI, can be made.

GPS on Every Roof, GPS Sensor Network for Post-Seismic Building-Wise Damage Identification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenji Oguni

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Development of wireless sensor network equipped with GPS for post-seismic building-wise damage identification is presented in this paper. This system is called GPS on Every Roof. Sensor node equipped with GPS antenna and receiver is installed on the top of the roof of each and every building. The position of this sensor node is measured before and after earthquake. The final goal of this system is to i identify the displacement of the roof of each house and ii collect the information of displacement of the roof of the houses through wireless communication. Superposing this information on GIS, building-wise damage distribution due to earthquake can be obtained. The system overview, hardware and some of the key components of the system such as on-board GPS relative positioning algorithm to achieve the accuracy in the order of several centimeters are described in detail. Also, the results from a field experiment using a wireless sensor network with 39 sensor nodes are presented.

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Shedlock

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings. The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Fatigue Damage Estimation and Data-based Control for Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus; Wisniewski, Rafal; Soltani, Mohsen

2015-01-01

based on hysteresis operators, which can be used in control loops. The authors propose a data-based model predictive control (MPC) strategy that incorporates an online fatigue estimation method through the objective function, where the ultimate goal in mind is to reduce the fatigue damage of the wind......The focus of this work is on fatigue estimation and data-based controller design for wind turbines. The main purpose is to include a model of the fatigue damage of the wind turbine components in the controller design and synthesis process. This study addresses an online fatigue estimation method...... turbine components. The outcome is an adaptive or self-tuning MPC strategy for wind turbine fatigue damage reduction, which relies on parameter identification on previous measurement data. The results of the proposed strategy are compared with a baseline model predictive controller....

Core damage frequency estimation using accident sequence precursor data: 1990-1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.

1998-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) ongoing Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to assess the potential for severe core damage (henceforth referred to simply as core damage) based on operating events. The types of operating events considered include accident sequence initiators, safety equipment failures, and degradation of plant conditions that could increase the probability that various postulated accident sequences occur. Such operating events potentially reduce the margin of safety available for prevention of core damage an thus can be considered as precursors to core damage. The current process for identifying, analyzing, and documenting ASP events is described in detail in Vanden Heuval et al. The significance of a Licensee Event Report (LER) event (or events) is measured by means of the conditional probability that the event leads to core damage, the so-called conditional core damage probability or, simply, CCDP. When the first ASP study results were published in 1982, it covered the period 1969--1979. In addition to identification and ranking of precursors, the original study attempted to estimate core damage frequency (CDF) based on the precursor events. The purpose of this paper is to compare the average annual CDF estimates calculated using the CCDP sum, Cooke-Goossens, Bier, and Abramson estimators for various reactor classes using the combined ASP data for the four years, 1990--1993. An important outcome of this comparison is an answer to the persistent question regarding the degree and effect of the positive bias of the CCDP sum method in practice. Note that this paper only compares the estimators with each other. Because the true average CDF is unknown, the estimation error is also unknown. Therefore, any observations or characterizations of bias are based on purely theoretical considerations

SEISMIC SITE RESPONSE ESTIMATION IN THE NEAR SOURCE REGION OF THE 2009 L’AQUILA, ITALY, EARTHQUAKE

Science.gov (United States)

Bertrand, E.; Azzara, R.; Bergamashi, F.; Bordoni, P.; Cara, F.; Cogliano, R.; Cultrera, G.; di Giulio, G.; Duval, A.; Fodarella, A.; Milana, G.; Pucillo, S.; Régnier, J.; Riccio, G.; Salichon, J.

2009-12-01

The 6th of April 2009, at 3:32 local time, a Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzo region (central Italy) causing more than 300 casualties. The epicenter of the earthquake was 95km NE of Rome and 10km from the center of the city of L’Aquila, the administrative capital of the Abruzzo region. This city has a population of about 70,000 and was severely damaged by the earthquake, the total cost of the buildings damage being estimated around 3 Bn €. Historical masonry buildings particularly suffered from the seismic shaking, but some reinforced concrete structures from more modern construction were also heavily damaged. To better estimate the seismic solicitation of these structures during the earthquake, we deployed temporary arrays in the near source region. Downtown L’Aquila, as well as a rural quarter composed of ancient dwelling-centers located western L’Aquila (Roio area), have been instrumented. The array set up downtown consisted of nearly 25 stations including velocimetric and accelerometric sensors. In the Roio area, 6 stations operated for almost one month. The data has been processed in order to study the spectral ratios of the horizontal component of ground motion at the soil site and at a reference site, as well as the spectral ratio of the horizontal and the vertical movement at a single recording site. Downtown L’Aquila is set on a Quaternary fluvial terrace (breccias with limestone boulders and clasts in a marly matrix), which forms the left bank of the Aterno River and slopes down in the southwest direction towards the Aterno River. The alluvial are lying on lacustrine sediments reaching their maximum thickness (about 250m) in the center of L’Aquila. After De Luca et al. (2005), these quaternary deposits seem to lead in an important amplification factor in the low frequency range (0.5-0.6 Hz). However, the level of amplification varies strongly from one point to the other in the center of the city. This new experimentation allows new and more

Fatigue-Damage Estimation and Control for Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barradas Berglind, Jose de Jesus

How can fatigue-damage for control of wind turbines be represented? Fatigue-damage is indeed a crucial factor in structures such as wind turbines that are exposed to turbulent and rapidly changing wind flow conditions. This is relevant both in their design stage and during the control......, the inclusion of fatigue-damage within feedback control loops is of special interest. Four strategies in total are proposed in this work: three for the wind turbine level and one for the wind farm level. On one hand, the three strategies in the turbine level are based on hysteresis operators and strive......-damage estimation in wind turbine components, to the mixed objective operation of wind energy conversion systems, and to the synthesis of control strategies that include hysteresis operators....

Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Han Chan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

2014-01-01

The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James B Elsner

Full Text Available The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1 for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93 [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.; Bernabé, M. A.

2013-11-01

This work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions throughout the execution of the work. After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission, the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation - Risk-UR). For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle, speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the results of the different working phases. The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers).

Seismic experience in power and industrial facilities as it relates to small magnitude earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swan, S.W.; Horstman, N.G.

1987-01-01

The data base on the performance of power and industrial facilities in small magnitude earthquakes (M = 4.0 - 5.5) is potentially very large. In California alone many earthquakes in this magnitude range occur every year, often near industrial areas. In 1986 for example, in northern California alone, there were 76 earthquakes between Richter magnitude 4.0 and 5.5. Experience has shown that the effects of small magnitude earthquakes are seldom significant to well-engineered facilities. (The term well-engineered is here defined to include most modern industrial installations, as well as power plants and substations.) Therefore detailed investigations of small magnitude earthquakes are normally not considered worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to review the tendency toward seismic damage of equipment installations representative of nuclear power plant safety systems. Estimates are made of the thresholds of seismic damage to certain types of equipment in terms of conventional means of measuring the damage potential of an earthquake. The objective is to define thresholds of damage that can be correlated with Richter magnitude. In this manner an earthquake magnitude might be chosen below which damage to nuclear plant safety systems is not considered credible

Evaluation and considerations about fundamental periods of damaged reinforced concrete buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Ditommaso

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is an empirical estimation of the fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings and its variation due to structural and non-structural damage. The 2009 L'Aquila earthquake has highlighted the mismatch between experimental data and code provisions value not only for undamaged buildings but also for the damaged ones. The 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake provided the first opportunity in Italy to estimate the fundamental period of reinforced concrete (RC buildings after a strong seismic sequence. A total of 68 buildings with different characteristics, such as age, height and damage level, have been investigated by performing ambient vibration measurements that provided their fundamental translational period. Four different damage levels were considered according with the definitions by EMS 98 (European Macroseismic Scale, trying to regroup the estimated fundamental periods versus building heights according to damage. The fundamental period of RC buildings estimated for low damage level is equal to the previous relationship obtained in Italy and Europe for undamaged buildings, well below code provisions. When damage levels are higher, the fundamental periods increase, but again with values much lower than those provided by codes. Finally, the authors suggest a possible update of the code formula for the simplified estimation of the fundamental period of vibration for existing RC buildings, taking into account also the inelastic behaviour.

Seismicity and Seismic Hazard along the Western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Ferrão, Celia; Borges, José Fernando; Caldeira, Bento; Dib, Assia; Ousadou, Farida

2016-04-01

The seismic phenomenon is the most damaging natural hazard known in the Mediterranean area. The western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary extends from the Azores to the Mediterranean region. The oceanic part of the plate boundary is well delimited from the Azores Islands, along the Azores-Gibraltar fault to approximately 12°W (west of the Strait of Gibraltar). From 12°W to 3.5°E, including the Iberia-Nubia region and extending to the western part of Algeria, the boundary is more diffuse and forms a wider area of deformation. The boundary between the Iberia and Nubia plates is the most complex part of the margin. This region corresponds to the transition from an oceanic boundary to a continental boundary, where Iberia and Nubia collide. Although most earthquakes along this plate boundary are shallow and generally have magnitudes less than 5.5, there have been several high-magnitude events. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss and considerable economic damage to the region. From 1920 to present, three earthquakes with magnitudes of about 8.0 (Mw 8.2, 25 November 1941; Ms 8.0, 25 February 1969; and Mw 7.9, 26 May 1975) occurred in the oceanic region, and four earthquakes with magnitudes of about 7.0 (Mw 7.1, 8 May 1939, Santa Maria Island and Mw 7.1, January 1980, Terceira and Graciosa Islands, both in the Azores; Ms 7.1, 20 May 1931, Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone; and Mw 7.3, 10 October 1980, El Asnam, Algeria) occurred along the western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. In general, large earthquakes (M ≥7) occur within the oceanic region, with the exception of the El Asnam (Algeria) earthquakes. Some of these events caused extensive damage. The 1755 Lisbon earthquake (˜Mw 9) on the Portugal Atlantic margin, about 200 km W-SW of Cape St. Vincent, was followed by a tsunami and fires that caused the near-total destruction of Lisbon and adjacent areas. Estimates of the death toll in Lisbon alone (~70

Seismic isolation in New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skinner, R.I.; Robinson, W.H.; McVerry, G.H.

1989-01-01

Bridges, buildings, and industrial equipment can be given increased protection from earthquake damage by limiting the earthquake attack through seismic isolation. A broad summary of the seismic responses of base-isolated structures is of considerable assistance for their preliminary design. Seismic isolation as already used in New Zealand consists of a flexible base or support combined with some form of energy-dissipating device, usually involving the hysteretic working of steel or lead. This paper presents examples of the New Zealand experience, where seismic isolation has been used for 42 bridges, 3 buildings, a tall chimney, and high-voltage capacitor banks. Additional seismic response factors, which may be important for nuclear power plants, are also discussed briefly

GIS-based seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

Science.gov (United States)

Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

2010-05-01

Earthquakes often represent very dangerouses natural events in terms of human life and economic losses and their damage effects are amplified by the synchronous occurrence of seismically-induced ground-shaking failures in wide regions around the seismogenic source. In fact, the shaking associated with big earthquakes triggers extensive landsliding, sometimes at distances of more than 100 km from the epicenter. The active tectonics and the geomorphic/morphodinamic pattern of the regions affected by earthquakes contribute to the slopes instability tendency. In fact, earthquake-induced groun-motion loading determines inertial forces activation within slopes that, combined with the intrinsic pre-existing static forces, reduces the slope stability towards its failure. Basically, under zero-shear stress reversals conditions, a catastrophic failure will take place if the earthquake-induced shear displacement exceeds the critical level of undrained shear strength to a value equal to the gravitational shear stress. However, seismic stability analyses carried out for various infinite slopes by using the existing Newmark-like methods reveal that estimated permanent displacements smaller than the critical value should also be regarded as dangerous for the post-earthquake slope safety, in terms of human activities use. Earthquake-induced (often high-speed) landslides are among the most destructive phenomena related to slopes failure during earthquakes. In fact, damage from earthquake-induced landslides (and other ground-failures), sometimes exceeds the buildings/infrastructures damage directly related to ground-shaking for fault breaking. For this matter, several hearthquakes-related slope failures methods have been developed, for the evaluation of the combined hazard types represented by seismically ground-motion landslides. The methodologies of analysis of the engineering seismic risk related to the slopes instability processes is often achieved through the evaluation of the

Study on seismic reliability for foundation grounds and surrounding slopes of nuclear power plants. Proposal of evaluation methodology and integration of seismic reliability evaluation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohtori, Yasuki; Kanatani, Mamoru

2006-01-01

This paper proposes an evaluation methodology of annual probability of failure for soil structures subjected to earthquakes and integrates the analysis system for seismic reliability of soil structures. The method is based on margin analysis, that evaluates the ground motion level at which structure is damaged. First, ground motion index that is strongly correlated with damage or response of the specific structure, is selected. The ultimate strength in terms of selected ground motion index is then evaluated. Next, variation of soil properties is taken into account for the evaluation of seismic stability of structures. The variation of the safety factor (SF) is evaluated and then the variation is converted into the variation of the specific ground motion index. Finally, the fragility curve is developed and then the annual probability of failure is evaluated combined with seismic hazard curve. The system facilitates the assessment of seismic reliability. A generator of random numbers, dynamic analysis program and stability analysis program are incorporated into one package. Once we define a structural model, distribution of the soil properties, input ground motions and so forth, list of safety factors for each sliding line is obtained. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), point estimation method (PEM) and first order second moment (FOSM) implemented in this system are also introduced. As numerical examples, a ground foundation and a surrounding slope are assessed using the proposed method and the integrated system. (author)

On the modal characteristics of damaging structures subjected to earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Carlo Ponzo, Felice; Ditommaso, Rocco; Auletta, Gianluca; Iacovino, Chiara; Mossucca, Antonello; Nigro, Antonella; Nigro, Domenico

2015-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring, especially for structures located in seismic prone areas, has assumed a meaning of great importance in last years, for the possibility to make a more objective and more rapid estimation of the damage occurred on buildings after a seismic event. In the last years many researchers are working to set-up new methodologies for Non-destructive Damage Evaluation based on the variation of the dynamic behaviour of structures under seismic loads. The NDE methods for damage detection and evaluation can be classified into four levels, according to the specific criteria provided by the Rytter. Each level of identification is correlated with specific information related to monitored structure. In fact, by increasing the level it is possible to obtain more information about the state of the health of the structures, to know if damage occurred on the structures, to quantify and localize the damage and to evaluate its impact on the monitored structure. Several authors discussed on the possibility to use the mode shape curvature to localize damage on structural elements, for example, by applying the curvature-based method to frequency response function instead of mode shape, and demonstrated the potential of this approach by considering real data. Damage detection approach based on dynamic monitoring of structural properties over time has received a considerable attention in recent scientific literature. In earthquake engineering field, the recourse to experimental research is necessary to understand the mechanical behaviour of the various structural and non-structural components. In this paper a new methodology to detect and localize a possible damage occurred on a framed structure after an earthquake is presented and discussed. The main outcomes retrieved from many numerical non linear dynamic models of reinforced concrete framed structures characterized by 3, 5 and 8 floors with different geometric configurations and designed for gravity loads only

Seismic fragility capacity of equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iijima, Toru; Abe, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kenichi

2006-01-01

Seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is an available method to evaluate residual risks of nuclear plants that are designed on definitive seismic conditions. From our preliminary seismic PSA analysis, horizontal shaft pumps are important components that have significant influences on the core damage frequency (CDF). An actual horizontal shaft pump and some kinds of elements were tested to evaluate realistic fragility capacities. Our test results showed that the realistic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump would be at least four times as high as a current value, 1.6 x 9.8 m/s 2 , used for our seismic PSA. We are going to incorporate the fragility capacity data that were obtained from those tests into our seismic PSA analysis, and we expect that the reliability of seismic PSA should increase. (author)

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCann, W R; Nishenko, S P; Sykes, L R; Krause, J

1979-01-01

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.

A Survey study on design procedure of Seismic Base Isolation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adding shear walls or braced frames can decrease the potential damage caused by earthquakes.We can isolate the structures from the ground using the Seismic Base Isolation Systems that is flexible approach to decrease the potential damage. In this research we present information on the design procedure of seismic ...

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

Combined GPS and seismic monitoring of a 12-story structure in a region of induced seismicity in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Haase, J. S.; Soliman, M.; Kim, H.; Jaiswal, P.; Saunders, J. K.; Vernon, F.; Zhang, W.

2017-12-01

This work focuses on quantifying ground motions and their effects in Oklahoma near the location of the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, where seismicity has been increasing due to wastewater injection related to oil and natural gas production. Much of the building inventory in Oklahoma was constructed before the increase in seismicity and before the implementation of earthquake design and detailing provisions for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. We will use combined GPS/seismic monitoring techniques to measure ground motion in the field and the response of structures to this ground motion. Several Oklahoma State University buildings experienced damage due to the Pawnee earthquake. The USGS Shake Map product estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging from 0.12g to 0.15g at campus locations. We are deploying a high-rate GPS sensor and accelerometer on the roof and another accelerometer at ground level of a 12-story RC structure and at selected field sites in order to collect ambient noise data and nearby seismicity. The longer period recording characteristics of the GPS/seismic system are particularly well adapted to monitoring these large structures in the event of a significant earthquake. Gross characteristics of the structural system are described, which consists of RC columns and RC slabs in all stories. We conducted a preliminary structural analysis including modal analysis and response spectrum analysis based on a finite element (FE) simulation, which indicated that the period associated with the first X-axis bending, first torsional, and first Y-axis bending modes are 2.2 s, 2.1 s, and 1.8 s, respectively. Next, a preliminary analysis was conducted to estimate the range of expected deformation at the roof level for various earthquake excitations. The earthquake analysis shows a maximum roof displacement of 5 and 7 cm in the horizontal directions resulting from earthquake loads with PGA of 0.2g, well above the noise level of the combined GPS/seismic

The effect of Earth's oblateness on the seismic moment estimation from satellite gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Chunli; Guo, Junyi; Shang, Kun; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Rongjiang

2018-05-01

Over the last decade, satellite gravimetry, as a new class of geodetic sensors, has been increasingly studied for its use in improving source model inversion for large undersea earthquakes. When these satellite-observed gravity change data are used to estimate source parameters such as seismic moment, the forward modelling of earthquake seismic deformation is crucial because imperfect modelling could lead to errors in the resolved source parameters. Here, we discuss several modelling issues and focus on one modelling deficiency resulting from the upward continuation of gravity change considering the Earth's oblateness, which is ignored in contemporary studies. For the low degree (degree 60) time-variable gravity solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission data, the model-predicted gravity change would be overestimated by 9 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and about 6 per cent for the 2010 Maule earthquake. For high degree gravity solutions, the model-predicted gravity change at degree 240 would be overestimated by 30 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, resulting in the seismic moment to be systematically underestimated by 30 per cent.

Development of a low cost method to estimate the seismic signature of a geothermal field form ambient noise analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tibuleac, Ileana [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

2016-06-30

A new, cost effective and non-invasive exploration method using ambient seismic noise has been tested at Soda Lake, NV, with promising results. The material included in this report demonstrates that, with the advantage of initial S-velocity models estimated from ambient noise surface waves, the seismic reflection survey, although with lower resolution, reproduces the results of the active survey when the ambient seismic noise is not contaminated by strong cultural noise. Ambient noise resolution is less at depth (below 1000m) compared to the active survey. In general, the results are promising and useful information can be recovered from ambient seismic noise, including dipping features and fault locations.

Correlations between Energy and Displacement Demands for Performance-Based Seismic Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Mollaioli, Fabrizio; Bruno, Silvia; Decanini, Luis; Saragoni, Rodolfo

2011-01-01

The development of a scientific framework for performance-based seismic engineering requires, among other steps, the evaluation of ground motion intensity measures at a site and the characterization of their relationship with suitable engineering demand parameters (EDPs) which describe the performance of a structure. In order to be able to predict the damage resulting from earthquake ground motions in a structural system, it is first necessary to properly identify ground motion parameters that are well correlated with structural response and, in turn, with damage. Since structural damage during an earthquake ground motion may be due to excessive deformation or to cumulative cyclic damage, reliable methods for estimating displacement demands on structures are needed. Even though the seismic performance is directly related to the global and local deformations of the structure, energy-based methodologies appear more helpful in concept, as they permit a rational assessment of the energy absorption and dissipation mechanisms that can be effectively accomplished to balance the energy imparted to the structure. Moreover, energy-based parameters are directly related to cycles of response of the structure and, therefore, they can implicitly capture the effect of ground motion duration, which is ignored by conventional spectral parameters. Therefore, the identification of reliable relationships between energy and displacement demands represents a fundamental issue in both the development of more reliable seismic code provisions and the evaluation of seismic vulnerability aimed at the upgrading of existing hazardous facilities. As these two aspects could become consistently integrated within a performance-based seismic design methodology, understanding how input and dissipated energy are correlated with displacement demands emerges as a decisive prerequisite. The aim of the present study is the establishment of functional relationships between input and dissipated energy

Analysis of uncertainties in a probabilistic seismic hazard estimation, example for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beauval, C.

2003-12-01

This thesis proposes a new methodology that allows to pinpoint the key parameters that control probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and at the same time to quantify the impact of these parameters uncertainties on hazard estimates. Cornell-McGuire's method is used here. First, uncertainties on magnitude and location determinations are modeled and quantified: resulting variability on hazard estimates ranges between 5% and 25% (=COV), depending on the site and the return period. An impact study is then performed, in order to determine the hierarchy between the impacts on hazard of the choices of four other parameters: intensity-magnitude correlation, minimum and maximum magnitudes, the truncation of the attenuation relationship. The results at 34 Hz (PGA) indicate that the maximum magnitude is the less influent parameter (from 100 to 10000 years); whereas the intensity-magnitude correlation and the truncation of ground motion predictions (>2σ) are the controlling parameters at all return periods (up to 30% decrease each at 10000 years). An increase in the minimum magnitude contributing to the hazard, from 3.5 to 4.5, can also produce non-negligible impacts at small return periods (up to 20% decrease of hazard results at 475 years). Finally, the overall variability on hazard estimates due to the combined choices of the four parameters can reach up to 30% (COV, at 34 Hz). For lower frequencies (<5 Hz), the overall variability increases and maximum magnitude becomes a controlling parameter. Therefore, variability of estimates due to catalog uncertainties and to the choices of these four parameters must be taken into account in all probabilistic seismic hazard studies in France. To reduce variability in hazard estimates, future research should concentrate on the elaboration of an appropriate intensity- magnitude correlation, as well as on a more realistic way of taking into account ground motion dispersion. (author)

Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carausu, A.

1996-01-01

A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

Strategy for seismic upgrading of chemical plant taking productivity as criterion of judgment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oshima, M.; Kase, T.; Yashiro, H.; Fukushima, S.

2005-01-01

Seismic upgrading and modification of existing chemical plant facilities have been performed by means of a procedure of the Seismic Design Code and Guidelines of High-pressure Gas Facilities in Japan. Main purpose of this seismic design code is to ensure public safety at seismic events. From the viewpoints of seismic risk of corporate management, CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) and productivity of the plants are also important for seismic assessment. In this paper, authors proposed strategy for seismic assessment to select appropriate pre-earthquake upgrading and modification considering productivity of plants based on fault tree analysis. This assessment will enable to select weak damage modes and to allocate countermeasure cost optimally to the selected damage modes. (authors)

Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Bolton, David C.; Ren, Christopher X.; Riviere, Jacques; Marone, Chris; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.

2018-02-01

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

Strong intermediate-depth Vreancea earthquakes: Damage capacity in Bulgaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouteva-Guentcheva, M.P.; Paskaleva, I.P.; Panza, G.F.

2008-08-01

The sustainable development of the society depends not only on a reasonable policy for economical growth but also on the reasonable management of natural risks. The regional earthquake danger due to the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes dominates the hazard of NE Bulgaria. These quakes have particularly long-period and far-reaching effects, causing damages at large epicentral distances. Vrancea events energy attenuates considerably less rapidly than that of the wave field radiated by the seismically active zones in Bulgaria. The available strong motion records at Russe, NE Bulgaria, due to both Vrancea events - August 30, 1986 and May 30, 1990 show higher seismic response spectra amplitudes for periods up to 0.6 s for the horizontal components, compared to the values given in the Bulgarian Code and Eurocode 8. A neo-deterministic analytical procedure which models the wavefield generated by a realistic earthquake source, as it propagates through a laterally varying anelastic medium, is applied to obtain the seismic loading at Russe. After proper validation, using the few available data and parametric analyses, from the synthesized seismic signals damage capacity of selected scenario Vrancea quakes is estimated and compared with available capacity curves for some reinforced concrete and masonry structures, representative of the Balkan Region. The performed modelling has shown that the earthquake focal mechanisms control the seismic loading much more than the local geology, and that the site response should be analyzed by considering the whole thickness of sediments until the bedrock, and not only the topmost 30 m. (author)

Seismically induced common cause failures in PSA of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

1991-01-01

In this paper, a research project on the seismically induced common cause failures in nuclear power plants performed for Toshiba Corp. is described. The objective of this research was to develop the procedure for estimating the common cause failure probabilities of different nuclear power plant components using the combination of seismic experience data, the review of sources of dependency, sensitivity studies and engineering judgement. The research project consisted of three tasks: the investigation of damage instances in past earthquakes, the analysis of multiple failures and their root causes, and the development of the methodology for assessing seismically induced common cause failures. The details of these tasks are explained. In this paper, the works carried out in the third task are described. A methodology for treating common cause failures and the correlation between component failures is formulated; it highlights the modeling of event trees taking into account common cause failures and the development of fault trees considering the correlation between component failures. The overview of seismic PSA, the quantification methods for dependent failures and Latin Hypercube sampling method are described. (K.I.)

Realistic modelling of the seismic input: Site effects and parametric studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

2002-11-01

We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation, showing the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the framework of the EC project 'Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges' (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. The definition of the seismic input at the Warth bridge site, i.e. the determination of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake with a given magnitude and epicentral distance from the site, has been done following a theoretical approach. In order to perform an accurate and realistic estimate of site effects and of differential motion it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters, in realistic geological structures. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different sources and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of the reach of stochastic models, at a very low cost/benefit ratio. (author)

The potential for vault-induced seismicity in nuclear fuel waste disposal: experience from Canadian mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, C.D.; Chandler, N.A.

1996-12-01

A seismic event which causes damage to an underground opening is called a rockburst. Practical experience indicates that these damaging seismic events are associated with deep mines where extraction ratios are greater than 0.6. For the arrangement being considered by AECL for nuclear fuel waste disposal vaults, extraction ratios, for the room and pillar design, will be less than 0.3. At this extraction ratio the stress magnitudes will not be sufficient to induce seismic events that can damage the underground openings. Documented world-wide experience shows that unless the underground opening is very close to the source of a naturally occurring seismic event, such as an earthquake, the opening will also not experience any significant damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will improve its resistance to earthquake damage. Backfilling a disposal vault will also reduce the total convergence of the openings caused by thermal loads and hence minimize the potential for thermally-induced seismic events. (author)

Seismic PSA of nuclear power plants a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Dubey, P.N.; Reddy, G.R.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-07-01

Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Seismic PSA) analysis is an external event PSA analysis. The objective of seismic PSA for the plants is to examine the existence of plant vulnerabilities against postulated earthquakes by numerically assessing the plant safety and to take appropriate measures to enhance the plant safety. Seismic PSA analysis integrates the seismic hazard analysis, seismic response analysis, seismic fragility analysis and system reliability/ accident sequence analysis. In general, the plant consists of normally operating and emergency standby systems and components. The failure during an earthquake (induced directly by excessive inertial stresses or indirectly following the failure of some other item) of an operating component will lead to a change in the state of the plant. In that case, various scenarios can follow depending on the initiating event and the status of other sub-systems. The analysis represents these possible chronological sequences by an event tree. The event trees and the associated fault trees model the sub-systems down to the level of individual components. The procedure has been applied for a typical Indian nuclear power plant. From the internal event PSA level I analysis significant contribution to the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found due to the Fire Water System. Hence, this system was selected to establish the procedure of seismic PSA. In this report the different elements that go into seismic PSA analysis have been discussed. Hazard curves have been developed for the site. Fragility curve for the seismically induced failure of Class IV power has been developed. The fragility curve for fire-water piping system has been generated. Event tree for Class IV power supply has been developed and the dominating accident sequences were identified. CDF has been estimated from these dominating accident sequences by convoluting hazard curves of initiating event and fragility curves of the safety systems. (author)

New seismic sources parameterization in El Salvador. Implications to seismic hazard.

OpenAIRE

Alonso-Henar, Jorge; Staller, A.; Martínez Díaz, José J.; Benito, Belén; Álvarez Gómez, José Antonio; Canora Catalán, Carolina

2014-01-01

El Salvador is located at the pacific active margin of Central America, here, the subduction of the Cocos Plate under the Caribbean Plate at a rate of 80 mm/yr is the main seismic source. Although the seismic sources located in the Central American Volcanic Arc have been responsible for some of the most damaging earthquakes in El Salvador. The El Salvador Fault Zone is the main geological structure in El Salvador and accommodates 14 mm/yr of horizontal displacement between the Caribbean Plate...

Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

2014-12-01

With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

2007-05-01

Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

Temblor, an app focused on your seismic risk and how to reduce it

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Madden, E.

2015-12-01

Half of the world's population lives near active faults, and so could suffer earthquake damage. Most do not know they are at risk; many of the rest do too little, too late. So, Temblor is intended to enable everyone in the United States, and eventually the world, to learn their seismic hazard, to determine what most ensures their safety, and to determine the risk reduction measures in their best financial interest. In our free web and mobile app, and Chrome extension for real estate websites, Temblor estimates the likelihood of seismic shaking from all quakes at their occurrence rates, and the consequences of the shaking for home damage. The app then shows how the damage or its costs could be decreased by buying or renting a seismically safer home, securing fragile objects inside your home, retrofitting an older home, or buying earthquake insurance. Temblor uses public data from the USGS in the U.S., SHARE in Europe, and the GEAR model (Bird et al, in press, BSSA) for the globe. Through publicly available modeling methods, the hazard data is combined with public data on homes (construction date and square footage) to make risk calculations. This means that Temblor's results are independently reproducible. The app makes many simplifying assumptions, but users can provide additional information on their site and home for refined estimates. Temblor also lets one see active faults and recent quakes on the screen as they drive through an area. Because fear tends to trigger either panic or denial, Temblor seeks to make the world of earthquakes more fascinating than frightening. We are neither scaring nor soothing people, but rather talking straight. Through maps, globes, push notifications, family connections, and costs and benefit estimates, Temblor emphasizes the personal, local, realtime, and most importantly, rational. Temblor's goal is to distill scientific and engineering information into lucid, trusted, and ideally actionable guidance to renters, home owners, and

A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

Science.gov (United States)

Zollo, Aldo

2016-04-01

RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude

Hull Girder Fatigue Damage Estimations of a Large Container Vessel by Spectral Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ingrid Marie Vincent; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

2013-01-01

This paper deals with fatigue damage estimation from the analysis of full-scale stress measurements in the hull of a large container vessel (9,400 TEU) covering several months of operation. For onboard decision support and hull monitoring sys-tems, there is a need for a fast reliable method...... for esti-mation of fatigue damage in the ship hull. The objective of the study is to investigate whether the higher frequency contributions from the hydroelastic responses (springing and whipping) can satisfactory be included in the fatigue damage estimation by only a few parameters derived from the stress...

The Effects of Fracture Anisotropy on the Damage Pattern and Seismic Radiation from a Chemical Explosion in a Granite Quarry

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers-Martinez, M. A.; Sammis, C. G.; Ezzedine, S. M.

2017-12-01

As part of the New England Damage Experiment (NEDE) a 122.7 kg Heavy ANFO charge was detonated at a depth of 13 m in a granite quarry in Barre Vt. Subsequent drill cores from the source region revealed that most of the resultant fracturing was concentrated in the rift plane of the highly anisotropic Barre granite. We simulated this explosion using a dynamic damage mechanics model embedded in the ABAQUS 3D finite element code. The damage mechanics was made anisotropic by taking the critical stress intensity factor to be a function of azimuth in concert with the physics of interacting parallel fractures and laboratory studies of anisotropic granite. In order to identify the effects of anisotropy, the explosion was also simulated assuming 1) no initial damage (pure elasticity) and 2) isotropic initial damage. For the anisotropic case, the calculated fracture pattern simulated that observed in NEDE. The simulated seismic radiation looked very much like that from a tensile fracture oriented in the rift plane, and similar to the crack-like moment tensor observed in the far field of many nuclear explosions.

Enhancement of seismic resistance of buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudiu-Sorin Dragomir

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The objectives of the paper are both seismic instrumentation for damage assessment and enhancing of seismic resistance of buildings. In according with seismic design codes in force the buildings are designed to resist at seismic actions. Due to the time evolution of these design provisions, there are buildings that were designed decades ago, under the less stringent provisions. The conceptual conformation is nowadays provided in all Codes of seismic design. According to the Code of seismic design P100-1:2006 the asymmetric structures do not have an appropriate seismic configuration; they have disadvantageous distribution of volumes, mass and stiffness. Using results of temporary seismic instrumentation the safety condition of the building may be assessed in different phases of work. Based on this method, the strengthening solutions may be identified and the need of seismic joints may be emphasised. All the aforementioned ideas are illustrated through a case study. Therefore it will be analysed the dynamic parameter evolution of an educational building obtained in different periods. Also, structural intervention scenarios to enhance seismic resistance will be presented.

Seismic qualification of piping systems based on strain criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, K.; Rangette, A.

1988-01-01

Typical LMFBR piping is characterized by elevated temperature and low pressure levels. Taking into account operational conditions only these characteristics demand for and allow flexible piping design. The overestimation of the damage potential of seismic loading by e.g. improper failure criteria usually contradicts operational needs producing the known result of excessive ''snubberism'' and reduction of operational margins. As a matter of fact, due to its transiency seismic loading is essentially secondary provoking the natural design requirement ductility instead of stiffness and rigidity - i.e. exclusion of failure by strain control instead of stress control - and thus avoiding the LMFBR typical competition between operational needs and seismic qualification. The design requirement ductility needs judgement mechanisms, i.e. suitable load descriptions, allowed strain levels and strain evaluation tools. A simplified method for strain range estimation and the underlying basic ideas are roughly outlined. The status of verification and experience gained so far is described. The results achieved suggest that the qualification of piping based on ductility requirement controlled by strain criteria is not out of reach. (author)

Enhanced seismic criteria for piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Touboul, F. . E-mail francoise.touboul@cea.fr; Blay, N.; Sollogoub, P.; Chapuliot, S.

2006-01-01

In situ or laboratory experiments have shown that piping systems exhibit satisfactory seismic behavior. Seismic motion is not severe enough to significantly damage piping systems unless large differential motions of anchorage are imposed. Nevertheless, present design criteria for piping are very severe and require a large number of supports, which creates overly rigid piping systems. CEA, in collaboration with EDF, FRAMATOME and IRSN, has launched a large R and D program on enhanced design methods which will be less severe, but still conservative, and compatible with defect justification during operation. This paper presents the background of the R and D work on this matter, and CEA proposed equations. Our approach is based on the difference between the real behavior (or the best estimated computed one) with the one supposed by codified methods. Codified criteria are applied on an elastically calculated behavior that can be significantly different from the real one: the effect of plasticity may be very meaningful, even with low incursion in the plastic domain. Moreover, and particularly in piping systems, the elastic follow-up effect affects stress distribution for both seismic and thermal loads. For seismic load, we have proposed to modify the elastic moment limitation, based on the interpretation of experimental results on piping systems. The methods have been validated on more industrial cases, and some of the consequences of the changes have been studied: modification of the drawings and of the number of supports, global displacements, forces in the supports, stability of potential defects, etc. The basic aim of the studies undertaken is to make a decision on the stress classification problem, one that is not limited to seismic induced stresses, and to propose simplified methods for its solution

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia:Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao

2017-01-01

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

The seismic investigation of rock properties at the Carwynnen test mine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

New, B.M.

1984-11-01

The research described follows on from the seismic velocity tomography carried out previously at this site and describes an attempt to map the rock mass in terms of its attenuative properties. This is done by comparison of the spectral distributions of energy within wave packets observed at various distances from numerous source locations. The method was not found sensitive to the variations in natural rock condition at this site as the spectra were dominated by the effects of man-made openings and rock damage which appeared to control the energy input/output transfer function at each location. The seismic shadow caused by the presence of a major void in the area was clearly identified and suggested that similar observations could considerably enhance the value of velocity tomography techniques. Shear and compressional wave velocities are used to obtain estimates of the dynamic elastic properties of the rock mass. Brief recommendations regarding future seismic research are given. (author)

Seismic vulnerability assessment of chemical plants through probabilistic neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoki, T.; Ceravolo, R.; De Stefano, A.; Genovese, C.; Sabia, D.

2002-01-01

A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks

Seismic protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, R.

1988-01-01

To ensure that a nuclear reactor or other damage-susceptible installation is, so far as possible, tripped and already shut down before the arrival of an earthquake shock at its location, a ring of monitoring seismic sensors is provided around it, each sensor being spaced from it by a distance (possibly several kilometres) such that (taking into account the seismic-shock propagation velocity through the intervening ground) a shock monitored by the sensor and then advancing to the installation site will arrive there later than a warning signal emitted by the sensor and received at the installation, by an interval sufficient to allow the installation to trip and shut down, or otherwise assume an optimum anti-seismic mode, in response to the warning signal. Extra sensors located in boreholes may define effectively a three-dimensional (hemispherical) sensing boundary rather than a mere two-dimensional ring. (author)

Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

1999-06-01

Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

Assessment of the impact of degraded shear wall stiffnesses on seismic plant risk and seismic design loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klamerus, E.W.; Bohn, M.P.; Johnson, J.J.; Asfura, A.P.; Doyle, D.J.

1994-02-01

Test results sponsored by the USNRC have shown that reinforced shear wall (Seismic Category I) structures exhibit stiffnesses and natural frequencies which are smaller than those calculated in the design process. The USNRC has sponsored Sandia National Labs to perform an evaluation of the effects of the reduced frequencies on several existing seismic PRAs in order to determine the seismic risk implications inherent in these test results. This report presents the results for the re-evaluation of the seismic risk for three nuclear power plants: the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, the Zion Nuclear Power Plant, and Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit 1 (ANO-1). Increases in core damage frequencies for seismic initiated events at Peach Bottom were 25 to 30 percent (depending on whether LLNL or EPRI hazard curves were used). At the ANO-1 site, the corresponding increases in plant risk were 10 percent (for each set of hazard curves). Finally, at Zion, there was essentially no change in the computed core damage frequency when the reduction in shear wall stiffness was included. In addition, an evaluation of deterministic ''design-like'' structural dynamic calculations with and without the shear stiffness reductions was made. Deterministic loads calculated for these two cases typically increased on the order of 10 to 20 percent for the affected structures

Automated dose estimation for lost or damaged dosimeters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.L.; Deininger, R.J.

1988-01-01

This paper reports that some dosimetry vendors will compute doses for their customers' lost/damaged dosimeters based upon an average of recent dosimeter readings. However, the vendors usually require authorization from the customer for each such occurrence. Therefore, the tedious task of keeping track of the overdue status of each missing dosimeter and constantly notifying the vendor is still present. Also, depending on the monthly variability of a given person's doses, it may be more valid to use the employee's average dose, his/her highest dose over a recent period, an average dose of other employees with similar job duties for that period, or the maximum permissible dose. Thus, the task of estimating doses for lost/damaged dosimeters cannot be delegated to dosimetry vendor. Instead, the radiation safety department must sue the data supplied by the vendor as input for performing estimates. The process is performed automatically at the Medical Center Hospital of Vermont using a personal computer and a relational database

Eastern US seismic hazard characterization update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savy, J.B.; Boissonnade, A.C.; Mensing, R.W.; Short, C.M.

1993-06-01

In January 1989, LLNL published the results of a multi-year project, funded by NRC, on estimating seismic hazard at nuclear plant sites east of the Rockies. The goal of this study was twofold: to develop a good central estimate (median) of the seismic hazard and to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates of this hazard. In 1989, LLNL was asked by DOE to develop site specific estimates of the seismic hazard at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina as part of the New Production Reactor (NPR) project. For the purpose of the NPR, a complete review of the methodology and of the data acquisition process was performed. Work done under the NPR project has shown that first order improvement in the estimates of the uncertainty (i.e., lower mean hazard values) could be easily achieved by updating the modeling of the seismicity and ground motion attenuation uncertainty. To this effect, NRC sponsored LLNL to perform a reelicitation to update the seismicity and ground motion experts' inputs and to revise methods to combine seismicity and ground motion inputs in the seismic hazard analysis for nuclear power plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains. The objective of the recent study was to include the first order improvements that reflect the latest knowledge in seismicity and ground motion modeling and produce an update of all the hazard results produced in the 1989 study. In particular, it had been demonstrated that eliciting seismicity information in terms of rates of earthquakes rather than a- and b-values, and changing the elicitation format to a one-on-one interview, improved our ability to express the uncertainty of earthquake rates of occurrence at large magnitudes. Thus, NRC sponsored this update study to refine the model of uncertainty, and to re-elicitate of the experts' interpretations of the zonation and seismicity, as well as to reelicitate the ground motion models, based on current state of knowledge

Seismic fragility capacity of equipment--horizontal shaft pump test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iijima, T.; Abe, H.; Suzuki, K.

2005-01-01

The current seismic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump is 1.6 x 9.8 m/s 2 (1.6 g), which was decided from previous vibration tests and we believe that it must have sufficient margin. The purpose of fragility capacity test is to obtain realistic seismic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump by vibration tests. Reactor Building Closed Cooling Water (RCW) Pump was tested as a typical horizontal shaft pump, and then bearings and liner rings were tested as important parts to evaluate critical acceleration and dispersion. Regarding RCW pump test, no damage was found, though maximum input acceleration level was 6 x 9.8 m/s 2 (6 g). Some kinds of bearings and liner rings were tested on the element test. Input load was based on seismic motion which was same with the RCW pump test, and maximum load was equivalent to over 20 times of design seismic acceleration. There was not significant damage that caused emergency stop of pump but degradation of surface roughness was found on some kinds of bearings. It would cause reduction of pump life, but such damage on bearings occurred under large seismic load condition that was equivalent to over 10 to 20 g force. Test results show that realistic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump would be at least four times as higher as current value which has been used for our seismic PSA. (authors)

Interdependence between damage indices and ground motion parameters based on Hilbert–Huang transform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvanitopoulos, P F; Andreadis, I; Elenas, A

2010-01-01

Feature extraction from seismic accelerograms is a key issue in characterization of earthquake damage in structures. Until today, a number of effective classical parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Arias intensity have been proposed for analyzing the earthquake motion records. The aim of this paper is to search for new crucial characteristic seismic parameters which provide information pertinent to the damage indicators of the structures. The first proposed parameter is the maximum amplitude (A HHT m ax ) and the second is the mean amplitude (A HHT m ean ). Emphasis of our work has been placed on the use of the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT). A set of 13 natural accelerograms from worldwide well-known sites with strong seismic activity have been used. The HHT has been applied to the nonlinear and non-stationary data (earthquake recordings). Each complex seismic accelerogram is decomposed into several simple components called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Using the IMFs a three-dimensional time–frequency distribution of earthquake excitation is computed and two new seismic parameters are proposed and evaluated. After the numerical computation of all the seismic parameters (classical and proposed), nonlinear dynamic analysis is carried out to provide the post-seismic damage status of the structure under study. Two structural damage indices are utilized and the degree of interrelation among them and the seismic parameters is provided by correlation coefficients. Furthermore, two different reinforced concrete structures are examined. Results indicate the high correlation of the new seismic parameters (A HHT m ax , A HHT m ean ) with the damage indices and confirm that HHT is a promising tool for extracting information to characterize damage in structures

Seismic Applications of Energy Dampers

OpenAIRE

Shambhu Sinha

2004-01-01

Damping devices based on the operating principle of high velocity fluid flow through orifices have found numerous applications in the shock and vibration isolation of aerospace and defence systems. The study aims to investigate the feasibility of using energy dissipating fluid viscous dampers in structures to protect against seismic loads and to prove analytically and  experimentally that fluid viscous dampers can improve the seismic capacity of a structure by reducing damage and displacement...

Seismic PRA of a BWR plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo

2014-01-01

Since the occurrence of nuclear power plant accidents in the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power station, the regulatory framework on severe accident (SA) has been discussed in Japan. The basic concept is to typify and identify the accident sequences leading to core/primary containment vessel (PCV) damage and to implement SA measures covering internal and external events extensively. As Japan is an earthquake-prone country and earthquakes and tsunami are important natural external events for nuclear safety of nuclear power plants, JNES performed the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on a typical nuclear power plant and evaluated the dominant accident sequences leading to core/PCV damage to discuss dominant scenarios of severe accident (SA). The analytical models and the results of level-1 seismic PRA on a 1,100 MWe BWR-5 plant are shown here. Seismic PRA was performed for a typical BWR5 plant. Initiating events with large contribution to core damage frequency are the loss of all AC powers (station blackout) and the large LOCA. The top of dominant accident sequences is the simultaneous occurrence of station blackout and large LOCA. Important components to core damage frequency are electric power supply equipment. It needs to keep in mind that the results are influenced on site geologic characteristic to a greater or lesser. In the process of analysis, issues such as conservative assumptions related to damages of building or structure and success criteria for excessive LOCA are left to be resolved. These issues will be further studied including thermal hydric analysis in the future. (authors)

The characteristic of the building damage from historical large earthquakes in Kyoto

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, Akihito

2016-04-01

The Kyoto city, which is located in the northern part of Kyoto basin in Japan, has a long history of >1,200 years since the city was initially constructed. The city has been a populated area with many buildings and the center of the politics, economy and culture in Japan for nearly 1,000 years. Some of these buildings are now subscribed as the world's cultural heritage. The Kyoto city has experienced six damaging large earthquakes during the historical period: i.e., in 976, 1185, 1449, 1596, 1662, and 1830. Among these, the last three earthquakes which caused severe damage in Kyoto occurred during the period in which the urban area had expanded. These earthquakes are considered to be inland earthquakes which occurred around the Kyoto basin. The damage distribution in Kyoto from historical large earthquakes is strongly controlled by ground condition and earthquakes resistance of buildings rather than distance from estimated source fault. Therefore, it is necessary to consider not only the strength of ground shaking but also the condition of building such as elapsed years since the construction or last repair in order to more accurately and reliably estimate seismic intensity distribution from historical earthquakes in Kyoto. The obtained seismic intensity map would be helpful for reducing and mitigating disaster from future large earthquakes.

Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

Science.gov (United States)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

2007-06-01

Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

Seismic Barrier Protection of Critical Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-14

structures , earthquake mitigation I. Introduction Damage caused by earthquakes to critical structures such as nuclear power plants, regional hospitals...the seismic power drop in dB to magnitude drop using the seismic moment magnitude scale, Mw. In figures 5 and 6, the V-trench structure as modeled...representing geological media and V-shaped muffler borehole / trench component structures . Bottom: In this simple analysis, the power drop observed

Seismic Margin Assessment for Research Reactor using Fragility based Fault Tree Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwag, Shinyoung; Oh, Jinho; Lee, Jong-Min; Ryu, Jeong-Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The research reactor has been often subjected to external hazards during the design lifetime. Especially, a seismic event can be one of significant threats to the failure of structure system of the research reactor. This failure is possibly extended to the direct core damage of the reactor. For this purpose, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage under an earthquake accident is developed. The failure probabilities of basic events are evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions. Finally, the plant-level seismic margin is investigated by the fault tree analysis combining with fragility data and the critical path is identified. The plant-level probabilistic seismic margin assessment using the fragility based fault tree analysis was performed for quantifying the safety of research reactor to a seismic hazard. For this, the fault tree for structural system failure leading to the core damage of the reactor under a seismic accident was developed. The failure probabilities of basic events were evaluated as fragility curves of log-normal distributions.

Seismic Response of a Half-Scale Masonry Building with Flexible Diaphragms

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sweeney, Steven C; Horney, Matthew A; Orton, Sarah L

2005-01-01

Unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings constructed on Army installations before the development of modern seismic codes may be susceptible to earthquake damage and therefore could benefit from seismic mitigation measures...

Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Application of seismic refraction tomography for subsurface imaging ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seismic refraction tomography involves the measurement of the travel times of seismic refracted raypaths in order to define an image of seismic velocity in the intervening ground. This technique was used to estimate the depth to the fresh basement, estimate thickness of the weathered basement and to determine the ...

Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

Science.gov (United States)

Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

Seismic motions from project Rulison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corp., Alexandria, VA (United States)

1970-05-15

In the range from a few to a few hundred km, seismic measurements from the Rulison event are shown and compared with experimentally and analytically derived pre-event estimates. Seismograms, peak accelerations, and response spectra are given along with a description of the associated geologic environment. Techniques used for the pre-event estimates are identified with emphasis on supportive data and on Rulison results. Of particular interest is the close-in seismic frequency content which is expected to contain stronger high frequency components. This higher frequency content translates into stronger accelerations within the first tens of km, which in turn affect safety preparations. Additionally, the local geologic structure at nearby population centers must be considered. Pre-event reverse profile refraction surveys are used to delineate the geology at Rifle, Rulison, Grand Valley, and other sites. The geologic parameters are then used as input to seismic amplification models which deliver estimates of local resonant frequencies. Prediction of such resonances allows improved safety assurance against seismic effects hazards. (author)

Statistical analysis of seismicity and hazard estimation for Italy (mixed approach). Statistical parameters of main shocks and aftershocks in the Italian region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molchan, G.M.; Kronrod, T.L.; Dmitrieva, O.E.

1995-03-01

The catalog of earthquakes of Italy (1900-1993) is analyzed in the present work. The following problems have been considered: 1) a choice of the operating magnitude, 2) an analysis of data completeness, and 3) a grouping (in time and in space). The catalog has been separated into main shocks and aftershocks. Statistical estimations of seismicity parameters (a,b) are performed for the seismogenetic zones defined by GNDT. The non-standard elements of the analysis performed are: (a) statistical estimation and comparison of seismicity parameters under the condition of arbitrary data grouping in magnitude, time and space; (b) use of a not conventional statistical method for the aftershock identification; the method is based on the idea of optimizing two kinds of errors in the aftershock identification process; (c) use of the aftershock zones to reveal seismically- interrelated seismogenic zones. This procedure contributes to the stability of the estimation of the ''b-value'' Refs, 25 figs, tabs

Estimating of seismic return periods in Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores R, J.H.

1993-01-01

The study of seismic risk in the site of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant and surroundings was made considering the different periods of seismic return and the probability of occurrence in distinct time intervals (50, 75, 100, 125, 150 years) starting with the distribution of first type of extreme values of Gumbel (G1), the value used for the assessment of lifetime of lump was 50 years, and the rest of the periods are used to evaluate temporary nuclear cemeteries, it is to say for reducing the radioactivity of burned fuel assemblies. The seismic data belongs to the seismicity catalog (1920-1982) elaborated around the site, which average magnitude was 5 in the Richter Scale and are considered as shallow and are located in the Continental crust of North American shelf, and are induced by the pressure of the cocos shelf, being 36 % of the seismic movements of intermediate value and two seismic movements of deep value. (Author)

Earthquake damage to underground facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

1978-11-01

The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

A physical model of the Mexico City seismic response after the damaging M7.1 earthquake of September 19, 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Tago, J.; Villafuerte, C. D.; Chaljub, E.; Sanabria-Gómez, J. D.

2017-12-01

Built-up on top of ancient lake deposits, Mexico City experiences some of the largest seismic site effects in the world. The M7.1 intermediate-depth earthquake of September 19, 2017 (S19) collapsed 43 one-to-ten story buildings in the city close to the western edge of the lake-bed sediments, on top of the geotechnically-known transition zone. In this work we explore the physical reasons explaining such a damaging pattern and the long-lasting strong motion records well-documented from past events by means of new observations and high performance computational modeling. Besides the extreme amplification of seismic waves, duration of intense ground motion in the lake-bed lasts more than three times those recorded in hard-rock a few kilometers away. Different mechanisms contribute to the long lasting motions, such as the regional dispersion and multiple-scattering of the incoming wavefield all the way from the source. However, recent beamforming observations at hard-rock suggest that duration of the incoming field is significantly shorter than the strong shaking in the lake-bed. We show that despite the highly dissipative shallow deposits, seismic energy can propagate long distances in the deep structure of the valley, promoting also a large elongation of motion. Our simulations reveal that the seismic response of the basin is dominated by surface-waves overtones, and that this mechanism increases the duration of ground motion up to 280% and 500% of the incoming wavefield duration at 0.5 and 0.3 Hz, respectively. Furthermore, our results indicate that the damage pattern of the S19 earthquake is most likely due to the propagation of the fundamental mode in the transition zone of the basin. These conclusions contradicts what has been previously stated from observational and modeling investigations, where the basin itself has been discarded as a preponderant factor promoting long and devastating shaking in Mexico City. Reference: Cruz-Atienza, V. M., J. Tago, J. D

Development of seismic hazard analysis in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, T.; Ishii, K.; Ishikawa, Y.; Okumura, T.

1987-01-01

In recent years, seismic risk assessment of the nuclear power plant have been conducted increasingly in various countries, particularly in the United States to evaluate probabilistically the safety of existing plants under earthquake loading. The first step of the seismic risk assessment is the seismic hazard analysis, in which the relationship between the maximum earthquake ground motions at the plant site and their annual probability of exceedance, i.e. the seismic hazard curve, is estimated. In this paper, seismic hazard curves are evaluated and examined based on historical earthquake records model, in which seismic sources are modeled with area-sources, for several different sites in Japan. A new evaluation method is also proposed to compute the response spectra of the earthquake ground motions in connection with estimating the probabilistic structural response. Finally the numerical result of probabilistic risk assessment for a base-isolated three story RC structure, in which the frequency of seismic induced structural failure is evaluated combining the seismic hazard analysis, is described briefly

Seismic response of buried pipelines: a state-of-the-art review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Datta, T.K.

1999-01-01

A state-of-the-art review of the seismic response of buried pipelines is presented. The review includes modeling of soil-pipe system and seismic excitation, methods of response analysis of buried pipelines, seismic behavior of buried pipelines under different parametric variations, seismic stresses at the bends and intersections of network of pipelines. pipe damage in earthquakes and seismic risk analysis of buried pipelines. Based on the review, the future scope of work on the subject is outlined. (orig.)

Brittleness estimation from seismic measurements in unconventional reservoirs: Application to the Barnett shale

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Altimar, Roderick

Brittleness is a key characteristic for effective reservoir stimulation and is mainly controlled by mineralogy in unconventional reservoirs. Unfortunately, there is no universally accepted means of predicting brittleness from measures made in wells or from surface seismic data. Brittleness indices (BI) are based on mineralogy, while brittleness average estimations are based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. I evaluate two of the more popular brittleness estimation techniques and apply them to a Barnett Shale seismic survey in order to estimate its geomechanical properties. Using specialized logging tools such as elemental capture tool, density, and P- and S wave sonic logs calibrated to previous core descriptions and laboratory measurements, I create a survey-specific BI template in Young's modulus versus Poisson's ratio or alternatively lambdarho versus murho space. I use this template to predict BI from elastic parameters computed from surface seismic data, providing a continuous estimate of BI estimate in the Barnett Shale survey. Extracting lambdarho-murho values from microseismic event locations, I compute brittleness index from the template and find that most microsemic events occur in the more brittle part of the reservoir. My template is validated through a suite of microseismic experiments that shows most events occurring in brittle zones, fewer events in the ductile shale, and fewer events still in the limestone fracture barriers. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is an estimate of the expected total production of oil and/or gas for the economic life of a well and is widely used in the evaluation of resource play reserves. In the literature it is possible to find several approaches for forecasting purposes and economic analyses. However, the extension to newer infill wells is somewhat challenging because production forecasts in unconventional reservoirs are a function of both completion effectiveness and reservoir quality. For shale gas reservoirs

Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junjie Ren

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9 occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF. However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3 × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

2013-01-01

Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

A Survey study on design procedure of Seismic Base Isolation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Horsfall

Base Isolation Systems that is flexible approach to decrease the potential damage. In this ... In addition, we analyze the seismic responses of isolated structures. The seismic ..... Equation 3.7, is examined; it is realized that the inequality ...

Promoting seismic retrofit implementation through "nudge": using warranty as a driver.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujimi, Toshio; Tatano, Hirokazu

2013-10-01

This article proposes a new type of warranty policy that applies the "nudge" concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein to encourage homeowners in Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disasters through loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive risk management, the "nudge" approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influence human decision-making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on a warranty for consumer goods than on actuarial value. This article proposes a "warranty for seismic retrofitting" as a "nudge" policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt loss reduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costs in the event of earthquake damage to the house if the homeowner implements seismic retrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived value of seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results show that a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of 33%, and an approximate cost-benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be more economically efficient than an ex ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure of the standard expected utility model to explain homeowners' decisions based on warranty evaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacy of seismic retrofitting and nonanalytical factors such as feelings or trust. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

A method for estimating the local area economic damages of Superfund waste sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, D.R.

1992-01-01

National Priority List (NPL) sites, or more commonly called Superfund sites, are hazardous waste sites (HWS) deemed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose the greatest risks to human health or welfare or to the environment. HWS are placed and ranked for cleanup on the NPL based on a score derived from the Hazard Ranking System (HRS), which is a scientific assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by HWS. A concern of the HRS is that the rank of sites is not based on benefit-cost analysis. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a method for estimating the local area economic damages associated with Superfund waste sites. Secondarily, the model is used to derive county-level damage estimates for use in ranking the county level damages from Superfund sites. The conceptual model used to describe the damages associated with Superfund sites is a household-firm location decision model. In this model assumes that households and firms make their location choice based on the local level of wages, rents and amenities. The model was empirically implemented using 1980 census microdata on households and workers in 253 counties across the US. The household sample includes data on the value and structural characteristics of homes. The worker sample includes the annual earnings of workers and a vector worker attributes. The microdata was combined with county level amenity data, including the number of Superfund sites. The hedonic pricing technique was used to estimate the effect of Superfund sites on average annual wages per household and on monthly expenditures on housing. The results show that Superfund sites impose statistically significant damages on households. The annual county damages from Superfund sites for a sample of 151 counties was over 14 billion dollars. The ranking of counties using the damage estimates is correlated with the rank of counties using the HRS

Using Seismic Interferometry to Investigate Seismic Swarms

Science.gov (United States)

Matzel, E.; Morency, C.; Templeton, D. C.

2017-12-01

Seismicity provides a direct means of measuring the physical characteristics of active tectonic features such as fault zones. Hundreds of small earthquakes often occur along a fault during a seismic swarm. This seismicity helps define the tectonically active region. When processed using novel geophysical techniques, we can isolate the energy sensitive to the fault, itself. Here we focus on two methods of seismic interferometry, ambient noise correlation (ANC) and the virtual seismometer method (VSM). ANC is based on the observation that the Earth's background noise includes coherent energy, which can be recovered by observing over long time periods and allowing the incoherent energy to cancel out. The cross correlation of ambient noise between a pair of stations results in a waveform that is identical to the seismogram that would result if an impulsive source located at one of the stations was recorded at the other, the Green function (GF). The calculation of the GF is often stable after a few weeks of continuous data correlation, any perturbations to the GF after that point are directly related to changes in the subsurface and can be used for 4D monitoring.VSM is a style of seismic interferometry that provides fast, precise, high frequency estimates of the Green's function (GF) between earthquakes. VSM illuminates the subsurface precisely where the pressures are changing and has the potential to image the evolution of seismicity over time, including changes in the style of faulting. With hundreds of earthquakes, we can calculate thousands of waveforms. At the same time, VSM collapses the computational domain, often by 2-3 orders of magnitude. This allows us to do high frequency 3D modeling in the fault region. Using data from a swarm of earthquakes near the Salton Sea, we demonstrate the power of these techniques, illustrating our ability to scale from the far field, where sources are well separated, to the near field where their locations fall within each other

First-passage Probability Estimation of an Earthquake Response of Seismically Isolated Containment Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, Dae-Gi; Park, Kwan-Soon; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2008-01-01

The awareness of a seismic hazard and risk is being increased rapidly according to the frequent occurrences of the huge earthquakes such as the 2008 Sichuan earthquake which caused about 70,000 confirmed casualties and a 20 billion U.S. dollars economic loss. Since an earthquake load contains various uncertainties naturally, the safety of a structural system under an earthquake excitation has been assessed by probabilistic approaches. In many structural applications for a probabilistic safety assessment, it is often regarded that the failure of a system will occur when the response of the structure firstly crosses the limit barrier within a specified interval of time. The determination of such a failure probability is usually called the 'first-passage problem' and has been extensively studied during the last few decades. However, especially for the structures which show a significant nonlinear dynamic behavior, an effective and accurate method for the estimation of such a failure probability is not fully established yet. In this study, we presented a new approach to evaluate the first-passage probability of an earthquake response of seismically isolated structures. The proposed method is applied to the seismic isolation system for the containment buildings of a nuclear power plant. From the numerical example, we verified that the proposed method shows accurate results with more efficient computational efforts compared to the conventional approaches

Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanzano, Giovanni; Salzano, Ernesto; Santucci de Magistris, Filippo; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

2013-01-01

This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech). -- Highlights: • The seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines is analyzed. • A collection of data for pipelines damaged by earthquake is given. • Damage states and risk states for pipelines are defined. • Consequence-based fragility formulations for the loss of containment are given • Seismic threshold values for public authority, risk assessment and gas distribution are shown

Optimal Retrofit Scheme for Highway Network under Seismic Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongxi Huang

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Many older highway bridges in the United States (US are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake. According to the most recent American Society of Civil Engineers’ infrastructure report card, one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones. To improve this situation, at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities. In this study, a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework. A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state. As an empirical case study, the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US, Charleston, South Carolina. The developed modeling framework, on average, will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45% with a cost increase of only $15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only $32m for the Mw 7.0 event.

Induced seismicity and the potential for liability under U.S. law

Science.gov (United States)

Cypser, Darlene A.; Davis, Scott D.

1998-04-01

Research by seismologists over the past 30+ years has firmly established that some human activities induce seismicity. Sometimes induced seismicity causes injuries to people or property. The activities which induce seismicity generally involve extraction of energy, or natural resources, or the disposal of wastes. As the human population increases these extraction and disposal activities will increase in number of sites and intensity of effort as the demands become greater and the resources scarcer. With these increases the number and severity of damaging induced earthquakes is likely to increase. Induced seismicity may cause injuries by vibrations or by seismically induced ground failure. In either case compensation for injuries caused by induced seismicity should be paid for by the inducer. In the United States the inducer of damaging seismicity can be made to pay for the harm caused. Liability for damage caused by vibrations can be based on several legal theories: trespass, strict liability, negligence and nuisance. Our research revealed no cases in which an appellate court has upheld or rejected the application of tort liability to an induced earthquake situation. However, there are numerous analogous cases that support the application of these legal theories to induced seismicity. Vibrations or concussions due to blasting or heavy machinery are sometimes viewed as a `trespass' analogous to a physical invasion. In some states activities which induce earthquakes might be considered `abnormally dangerous' activities that require companies engaged in them to pay for injuries the quakes cause regardless of how careful the inducers were. In some circumstances, a court may find that an inducer was negligent in its site selection or in maintenance of the project. If induced seismicity interferes with the use or enjoyment of another's land, then the inducing activity may be a legal nuisance, even if the seismicity causes little physical damage. In most states of the

Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-15

After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

2007-01-01

An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

Self-Centering Seismic Lateral Force Resisting Systems: High Performance Structures for the City of Tomorrow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan Brent Chancellor

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Structures designed in accordance with even the most modern buildings codes are expected to sustain damage during a severe earthquake; however; these structures are expected to protect the lives of the occupants. Damage to the structure can require expensive repairs; significant business downtime; and in some cases building demolition. If damage occurs to many structures within a city or region; the regional and national economy may be severely disrupted. To address these shortcomings with current seismic lateral force resisting systems and to work towards more resilient; sustainable cities; a new class of seismic lateral force resisting systems that sustains little or no damage under severe earthquakes has been developed. These new seismic lateral force resisting systems reduce or prevent structural damage to nonreplaceable structural elements by softening the structural response elastically through gap opening mechanisms. To dissipate seismic energy; friction elements or replaceable yielding energy dissipation elements are also included. Post-tensioning is often used as a part of these systems to return the structure to a plumb; upright position (self-center after the earthquake has passed. This paper summarizes the state-of-the art for self-centering seismic lateral force resisting systems and outlines current research challenges for these systems.

Quantitative estimation of lithofacies from seismic data in a tertiary turbidite system in the North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joerstad, A.K.; Avseth, P.Aa; Mukerji, T.; Mavko, G.; Granli, J.R.

1998-12-31

Deep water clastic systems and associated turbidite reservoirs are often characterized by very complex sand distributions and reservoir description based on conventional seismic and well-log stratigraphic analysis may be very uncertain in these depositional environments. There is shown that reservoirs in turbidite systems have been produced very inefficiently in conventional development. More than 70% of the mobile oil is commonly left behind, because of the heterogeneous nature of these reservoirs. In this study there is examined a turbidite system in the North Sea with five available wells and a 3-D seismic near and far offset stack to establish most likely estimates of facies and pore fluid within the cube. 5 figs.

Development of Vertical Cable Seismic System

Science.gov (United States)

Asakawa, E.; Murakami, F.; Sekino, Y.; Okamoto, T.; Ishikawa, K.; Tsukahara, H.; Shimura, T.

2011-12-01

In 2009, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) started the survey system development for Hydrothermal deposit. We proposed the Vertical Cable Seismic (VCS), the reflection seismic survey with vertical cable above seabottom. VCS has the following advantages for hydrothermal deposit survey. (1) VCS is an efficient high-resolution 3D seismic survey in limited area. (2) It achieves high-resolution image because the sensors are closely located to the target. (3) It avoids the coupling problems between sensor and seabottom that cause serious damage of seismic data quality. (4) Because of autonomous recording system on sea floor, various types of marine source are applicable with VCS such as sea-surface source (GI gun etc.) , deep-towed or ocean bottom source. Our first experiment of 2D/3D VCS surveys has been carried out in Lake Biwa, JAPAN, in November 2009. The 2D VCS data processing follows the walk-away VSP, including wave field separation and depth migration. Seismic Interferometry technique is also applied. The results give much clearer image than the conventional surface seismic. Prestack depth migration is applied to 3D data to obtain good quality 3D depth volume. Seismic Interferometry technique is applied to obtain the high resolution image in the very shallow zone. Based on the feasibility study, we have developed the autonomous recording VCS system and carried out the trial experiment in actual ocean at the water depth of about 400m to establish the procedures of deployment/recovery and to examine the VC position or fluctuation at seabottom. The result shows that the VC position is estimated with sufficient accuracy and very little fluctuation is observed. Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo took the research cruise NT11-02 on JAMSTEC R/V Natsushima in February, 2011. In the cruise NT11-02, JGI carried out the second VCS survey using the autonomous VCS recording system with the deep towed source provided by

Seismic analysis of rack structures for fuel cycle facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mochio, Takashi; Morooka, Akihiko; Ito, Takashi.

1987-01-01

A concept of remote maintenance using in large remote cell and rack system structure, which is now under development at high active liquid waste vitrification facility of PNC and West Germany reprocessing plant WA-350, has been adopted to reduce the radiation exposure and increase the operating efficiency. The operation of a highly efficient remote maintenance system sometimes requires the rack structures to be fairly flexible, because of the large number of loose connections and/or gapped supports and the low number of rack frames. This means that there is a possibility of severe damage occurring due to large amplitude responses during a strong earthquake. Therefore, it is very important to estimate the earthquake-resistance capacity of rack structures, including process equipment, to earthquake excitation. This paper presents an outline of a new computer code ''FRACK'' to analyze the nonlinear seismic response of a rack structure developed as a first stage in the rack system seismic research program. (author)

Seismic margins and calibration of piping systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shieh, L.C.; Tsai, N.C.; Yang, M.S.; Wong, W.L.

1985-01-01

The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) is a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-funded, multiyear program conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Its objective is to develop a complete, fully coupled analysis procedure for estimating the risk of earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant and to determine major contributors to the state-of-the-art seismic and systems analysis process and explicitly includes the uncertainties in such a process. The results will be used to improve seismic licensing requirements for nuclear power plants. In Phase I of SSMRP, the overall seismic risk assessment methodology was developed and assembled. The application of this methodology to the seismic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) at the Zion Nuclear Power Plant has been documented. This report documents the method deriving response factors. The response factors, which relate design calculated responses to best estimate values, were used in the seismic response determination of piping systems for a simplified seismic probablistic risk assessment. 13 references, 31 figures, 25 tables

Methodology and results of the seismic probabilistic safety assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermaut, M.K.; Monette, P.; Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

A seismic IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination for External Events) was performed for the Krsko plant. The methodology adopted is the seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). The Krsko NPP is located on a medium to high seismicity site. The PSA study described here includes all the steps in the PSA sequence, i.e. reassessment of the site hazard, calculation of plant structures response including soil-structure interaction, seismic plant walkdowns, probabilistic seismic fragility analysis of plant structures and components, and quantification of seismic core damage frequency (CDF). Also relay chatter analysis and soil stability studies were performed. The seismic PSA described here is limited to the analysis of CDF (level I PSA). The subsequent determination and quantification of plant damage states, containment behaviour and radioactive releases to the outside (level 2 PSA) have been performed for the Krsko NPP but are not further described in this paper. The results of the seismic PSA study indicate that, with some upgrades suggested by the PSA team, the seismic induced CDF is comparable to that of most US and Western Europe NPPs. (author)

Fragility analysis of a seismically-isolated emergency diesel generator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choun, Young Sun; Choi, In Kil; Ohtori, Yasuki

2005-01-01

The seismic capacity of an Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG) in nuclear power plants influences the seismic safety of the plants significantly. A recent study showed that the increase of the seismic capacity of the EDG could reduce the core damage frequency (CDF) remarkably. It is known that the major failure mode of the EDG is a concrete coning failure due to the pulling out of the anchor bolts. The use of base isolators instead of anchor bolts can increase the seismic capacity of the EDG without any major problems. The fragility curves for a base-isolated EDG should be different from those for a conventional type because the major failure mode of the base-isolated EDG will not be a concrete coning one any more. The governing failure mode of the base-isolated EDG must be the damage of the isolators. This study introduces a fragility evaluation method for an isolated EDG, and evaluates the fragilities for the isolated EDG and compares them with those for the conventional one. Evaluation of the ground motion index is also carried out to determine the governing parameter suitable for representing the seismic responses of the base isolator

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Montreal -An Application of HAZUS-MH4

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Keyan

2011-12-01

Seismic loss estimation for Montreal, Canada is performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic hazard using the HAZUS-MH4 tool developed by US Federal Emergency Management. The software is manipulated to accept a Canadian setting for the Montreal study region, which includes 522 census tracts. The accuracy of loss estimations using HAZUS is dependent on the quality and quantity of data collection and preparation. The data collected for Montreal study region comprise: (1) the building inventory (2) hazard maps regarding soil amplification, liquefaction, and landslides (3) population distribution at three different times of the day (4) census demographic information and (5) synthetic ground motion contour maps using three different ground motion prediction equations. All these data are prepared and assembled into geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS software. The study estimated that roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for a scenario corresponding to the 2% in 50 years scenario. The maximum number of casualties associated with this scenario corresponds to a time of occurrence of 2pm and would result in approximately 500 people being injured. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggests that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. The next steps in the study should be to increase the size of the survey area to the Greater Montreal which includes more than 3 million inhabitants and to perform more targeted studies for critical areas such as downtown Montreal, and the south-eastern tip of Montreal. The current study was performed mainly for the built environment; the next phase will need to

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

Gas hydrates:estimation of the gas potential, from reflection seismic data in the continental shelf of Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Santa Ana, H.; Ucha, N.; Gutierrez, L.; Veroslavsky, G.

2004-01-01

The uruguayan continental shelf shows geophysical indicators of gas hydrates in the Oriental del Plata, Pelotas and Punta del Este basin. The aim of this work is to present the potential presence of gas at the continental shelf in Uruguay and to evaluate the possibility of exploration of unconventional hydrocarbon plays. Analysis of the seismic surface based on regional and stratgigraphic information that proceeded from previous hydrocarbon exploration in the area have been used to estimatge resources of gas hydrates. Gas hydrates accumulation was mapped using characteristic reflectors and amplitude anomalies of seismic lines (BSR). Its quantity was estimated on this basis in about 86 TCF.

Efforts toward enhancing seismic safety at Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Kazuhiko

2009-01-01

It has been two years since the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (NCOE) occurred in 2007. The earthquake brought a major disaster for Kashiwazaki, Kariwa, and the neighboring areas. First of all, we would like to give condolences to people in the devastated area and to pray for the immediate recovery. Our Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Station located in the same area was naturally caught up in the earthquake. The station was hit by a big tremor more than its intensity assumed to be valid at the station design stage. In spite of unexpected tremor, preventive functions for the station safety worked as expected as it designed. Critical facilities designed as high seismic class were not damaged, though considerable damages were seen in outside-facilities designed as low seismic class. We currently make efforts to inspect and recover damages. While we carefully carry out inspection and assessment to make sure the station integrity, we are also going forward restoration as well as construction for seismic safety enhancement in turn. This report introduces details of the following accounts, these are an outline of guidelines for seismic design evaluation that was revised in 2006, a situation at Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Station in the aftermath of the earthquake, and efforts toward enhancing seismic safety that the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has made since the seismic disaster, and our approach to evaluation of facility integrity. (author)

Estimation of Dry Fracture Weakness, Porosity, and Fluid Modulus Using Observable Seismic Reflection Data in a Gas-Bearing Reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huaizhen; Zhang, Guangzhi

2017-05-01

Fracture detection and fluid identification are important tasks for a fractured reservoir characterization. Our goal is to demonstrate a direct approach to utilize azimuthal seismic data to estimate fluid bulk modulus, porosity, and dry fracture weaknesses, which decreases the uncertainty of fluid identification. Combining Gassmann's (Vier. der Natur. Gesellschaft Zürich 96:1-23, 1951) equations and linear-slip model, we first establish new simplified expressions of stiffness parameters for a gas-bearing saturated fractured rock with low porosity and small fracture density, and then we derive a novel PP-wave reflection coefficient in terms of dry background rock properties (P-wave and S-wave moduli, and density), fracture (dry fracture weaknesses), porosity, and fluid (fluid bulk modulus). A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo nonlinear inversion method is proposed to estimate fluid bulk modulus, porosity, and fracture weaknesses directly from azimuthal seismic data. The inversion method yields reasonable estimates in the case of synthetic data containing a moderate noise and stable results on real data.

Estimated probability of the number of buildings damaged by the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The analysis shows that the probability estimator of the building damage ... and homeowners) should reserve the cost of repair at least worth the risk of loss, to face ... Keywords: Citarum River; logistic regression; genetic algorithm; losses risk; ...

Real-time Seismic Alert System of NIED

Science.gov (United States)

Horiuchi, S.; Fujinawa, Y.; Negishi, H.; Matsumoto, T.; Fujiwara, H.; Kunugi, T.; Hayashi, Y.

2001-12-01

An extensive seismic network has been constructed nationwide composed of hi-sensitivity seismographic network, broadband seismographic network and strong motion seismographic network. All these data from some 3,000 sites belonging to NIED, JMA and universities are to be accumulated and distributed through NIED to any scientists and engineering through INTERNET under the coordination of the National Seismic Research Committee of MEXT. As a practical application of those data we are now developing a real-time seismic alert information system for the purpose of providing short-term warning of imminent strong grounds motions from major earthquakes from several seconds to a few days. The contents of information are seismic focal parameters (several seconds), seismic fault plane solutions (some 10 seconds), after-shock activities (several minutes-a few days ). The fundamental fault parameters are used to build specific information at sites for particular users for use of triggering automated and /or half-automated responses. The most important application is an immediate estimate of expected shaking distribution and damages in a district using synthetic database and site effects for local governments to initial proper measures of hazard mitigation. Another application is estimation of arrival time and shaking strength at any individual site for human lives to be safeguarded. The system could also start an automatic electrical isolation and protection of computer systems, protection of hazardous chronic systems, transportation systems and so on. The information are corrected successively as seismic ground motion are received at a larger number of sites in time with the result that more accurate and more sophisticated earthquake information is transmitted to any user. Besides the rapid determination of seismic parameters, one of essential items in this alert system is the data transmission means. The data transmission is chosen to assure negligibly small delay of data

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-08-01

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

Radiation damage prediction system using damage function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Yoshihisa; Mori, Seiji

1979-01-01

The irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was investigated. This irradiation damage analysis system consists of the following three processes, the unfolding of a damage function, the calculation of the neutron flux spectrum of the object of damage analysis and the estimation of irradiation effect of the object of damage analysis. The damage function is calculated by applying the SAND-2 code. The ANISN and DOT3, 5 codes are used to calculate neutron flux. The neutron radiation and the allowable time of reactor operation can be estimated based on these calculations of the damage function and neutron flux. The flow diagram of the process of analyzing irradiation damage by a damage function and the flow diagram of SAND-2 code are presented, and the analytical code for estimating damage, which is determined with a damage function and a neutron spectrum, is explained. The application of the irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was carried out to the core support structure of a fast breeder reactor for the damage estimation and the uncertainty evaluation. The fundamental analytical conditions and the analytical model for this work are presented, then the irradiation data for SUS304, the initial estimated values of a damage function, the error analysis for a damage function and the analytical results are explained concerning the computation of a damage function for 10% total elongation. Concerning the damage estimation of FBR core support structure, the standard and lower limiting values of damage, the permissible neutron flux and the allowable years of reactor operation are presented and were evaluated. (Nakai, Y.)

Study on Anti-seismic Strengthening of the Ancient Stone Archway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Ding

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Chinese ancient stone archways are in flat structure. And joints of their members are of half tenons and mortises. Under the influence of the earthquake, the resisting ability of archway’s uneven sides is relatively poor and the relevant members have little reliable joints. This paper is to analyze seismic strengthening feasibility of Tiantai mountain stone archway which is damaged from the earthquake and to research on the aspects of the loading mode, structure layout and soundness. On the premise of guaranteeing the authenticity and beauty, we use earthquake damaging mechanism of stone archways and the modern anti-seismic structure designing theory and modern building materials. We also follow the way of the modern construction technology and ancient construction and strengthen the anti-seismic way of the resisting ability of Tiantai mountain stone archway’s uneven sides and joints of tenons and mortises. The best anti-seismic strengthening schemes are put forward as well.

Earthquake Building Damage Mapping Based on Feature Analyzing Method from Synthetic Aperture Radar Data

Science.gov (United States)

An, L.; Zhang, J.; Gong, L.

2018-04-01

Playing an important role in gathering information of social infrastructure damage, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing is a useful tool for monitoring earthquake disasters. With the wide application of this technique, a standard method, comparing post-seismic to pre-seismic data, become common. However, multi-temporal SAR processes, are not always achievable. To develop a post-seismic data only method for building damage detection, is of great importance. In this paper, the authors are now initiating experimental investigation to establish an object-based feature analysing classification method for building damage recognition.

Crustal composition in the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt estimated from seismic velocity by laboratory measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Yamauchi, K.; Ishikawa, M.; Sato, H.; Iwasaki, T.; Toyoshima, T.

2015-12-01

To understand the dynamics of the lithosphere in subduction systems, the knowledge of rock composition is significant. However, rock composition of the overriding plate is still poorly understood. To estimate rock composition of the lithosphere, it is an effective method to compare the elastic wave velocities measured under the high pressure and temperature condition with the seismic velocities obtained by active source experiment and earthquake observation. Due to an arc-arc collision in central Hokkaido, middle to lower crust is exposed along the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt (HMB), providing exceptional opportunities to study crust composition of an island arc. Across the HMB, P-wave velocity model has been constructed by refraction/wide-angle reflection seismic profiling (Iwasaki et al., 2004). Furthermore, because of the interpretation of the crustal structure (Ito, 2000), we can follow a continuous pass from the surface to the middle-lower crust. We corrected representative rock samples from HMB and measured ultrasonic P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocities (Vs) under the pressure up to 1.0 GPa in a temperature range from 25 to 400 °C. For example, the Vp values measured at 25 °C and 0.5 GPa are 5.88 km/s for the granite (74.29 wt.% SiO2), 6.02-6.34 km/s for the tonalites (66.31-68.92 wt.% SiO2), 6.34 km/s for the gneiss (64.69 wt.% SiO2), 6.41-7.05 km/s for the amphibolites (50.06-51.13 wt.% SiO2), and 7.42 km/s for the mafic granulite (50.94 wt.% SiO2). And, Vp of tonalites showed a correlation with SiO2 (wt.%). Comparing with the velocity profiles across the HMB (Iwasaki et al., 2004), we estimate that the lower to middle crust consists of amphibolite and tonalite, and the estimated acoustic impedance contrast between them suggests an existence of a clear reflective boundary, which accords well to the obtained seismic reflection profile (Iwasaki et al., 2014). And, we can obtain the same tendency from comparing measured Vp/Vs ratio and Vp/Vs ratio structure model

Approaches that use seismic hazard results to address topics of nuclear power plant seismic safety, with application to the Charleston earthquake issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewell, R.T.; McGuire, R.K.; Toro, G.R.; Stepp, J.C.; Cornell, C.A.

1990-01-01

Plant seismic safety indicators include seismic hazard at the SSE (safe shut-down earthquake) acceleration, seismic margin, reliability against core damage, and reliability against offsite consequences. This work examines the key role of hazard analysis in evaluating these indicators and in making rational decisions regarding plant safety. The paper outlines approaches that use seismic hazard results as a basis for plant seismic safety evaluation and applies one of these approaches to the Charleston earthquake issue. This approach compares seismic hazard results that account for the Charleston tectonic interpretation, using the EPRI-Seismicity Owners Group (SOG) methodology, with hazard results that are consistent with historical tectonic interpretations accepted in regulation. Based on hazard results for a set of 21 eastern U.S. nuclear power plant sites, the comparison shows that no systematic 'plant-to-plant' increase in hazard accompanies the Charleston hypothesis; differences in mean hazards for the two interpretations are generally insignificant relative to current uncertainties in seismic hazard. (orig.)

Estimation of finite seismic source parameters for selected events of the West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kolář, Petr; Růžek, Bohuslav

2015-01-01

Roč. 19, č. 2 (2015), s. 403-421 ISSN 1383-4649 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/10/1728 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases * stress drop Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

Comparison of seismic isolation concepts for FBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiojiri, H.; Mazda, T.; Kasai, H.; Kanda, J.N.; Kubo, T.; Madokoro, M.; Shimomura, T.; Nojima, O.

1989-01-01

This paper seeks to verify the reliability and effectiveness of seismic isolation for FBR. Some results of the preliminary study of the program are described. Seismic isolation concepts and corresponding seismic isolation devices were selected. Three kinds of seismically-isolated FBR plant concepts were developed by applying promising seismic isolation concepts to the non-isolated FBR plant, and by developing plant component layout plans and building structural designs. Each plant was subjected to seismic response analysis and reduction in the amount of material of components and buildings were estimated for each seismic isolation concepts. Research and development items were evaluated

Estimating the response times of human operators working in the main control room of nuclear power plants based on the context of a seismic event – A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Yochan; Kim, Jung Han; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Response times under seismic events are necessary for human reliability analysis. • Conceptual framework to estimate response times under a seismic event is suggested. • Four kinds of representative contexts in seismic events are considered. • Rules for estimating response times on the representative contexts are extracted. - Abstract: After the Fukushima accident, a couple of novel issues have raised in terms of the safety assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This means that the performance of human operators should be properly evaluated under an extreme event. However, it is unrealistic to collect a sufficient amount of human performance data from a real event, such as a great earthquake. As one of the promising solutions, a conceptual framework is suggested in this paper, which is helpful for estimating the response time data of human operators working in the main control room of NPPs under a seismic event. To this end, the four kinds of representative contexts that could be anticipated from seismic events are identified. Then the response times of human operators who are faced with similar contexts are reviewed from existing literatures and databases. As a result, a couple of rules that allow us to extrapolate the response times of human operators under seismic events are extracted. Although underlying rationales being used for determining these rules are still arguable, it is expected that response times under seismic events could be properly understood along with accumulating those of human operators against non-seismic conditions

Experimental assessment of air permeability in a concrete shear wall subjected to simulated seismic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girrens, S.P.; Farrar, C.R.

1991-07-01

A safety concern for the proposed Special Nuclear Materials Laboratory (SNML) facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory was air leakage from the facility if it were to experience a design basis earthquake event. To address this concern, a study was initiated to estimate air leakage, driven by wind-generated pressure gradients, from a seismically damaged concrete structure. This report describes a prototype experiment developed and performed to measure the air permeability in a reinforced concrete shear wall, both before and after simulated seismic loading. A shear wall test structure was fabricated with standard 4000-psi concrete mix. Static load-cycle testing was used to simulate earthquake loading. Permeability measurements were made by pressurizing one side of the shear wall above atmospheric conditions and recording the transient pressure decay. As long as the structure exhibited linear load displacement response, no variation in the air permeability was detected. However, experimental results indicate that the air permeability in the shear wall increased by a factor of 40 after the wall had been damaged (cracked). 17 figs., 8 tabs

Nonlinear acoustic/seismic waves in earthquake processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Paul A.

2012-01-01

Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering—one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today—which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering of the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge—the granular material located between the fault blocks—is key to the triggering phenomenon.

Predicting the seismic performance of typical R/C healthcare facilities: emphasis on hospitals

Science.gov (United States)

Bilgin, Huseyin; Frangu, Idlir

2017-09-01

Reinforced concrete (RC) type of buildings constitutes an important part of the current building stock in earthquake prone countries such as Albania. Seismic response of structures during a severe earthquake plays a vital role in the extent of structural damage and resulting injuries and losses. In this context, this study evaluates the expected performance of a five-story RC healthcare facility, representative of common practice in Albania, designed according to older codes. The design was based on the code requirements used in this region during the mid-1980s. Non-linear static and dynamic time history analyses were conducted on the structural model using the Zeus NL computer program. The dynamic time history analysis was conducted with a set of ground motions from real earthquakes. The building responses were estimated in global levels. FEMA 356 criteria were used to predict the seismic performance of the building. The structural response measures such as capacity curve and inter-story drift under the set of ground motions and pushover analyses results were compared and detailed seismic performance assessment was done. The main aim of this study is considering the application and methodology for the earthquake performance assessment of existing buildings. The seismic performance of the structural model varied significantly under different ground motions. Results indicate that case study building exhibit inadequate seismic performance under different seismic excitations. In addition, reasons for the poor performance of the building is discussed.

Seismic damage diagnosis of a masonry building using short-term damping measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Kouris, Leonidas Alexandros S.; Penna, Andrea; Magenes, Guido

2017-04-01

It is of considerable importance to perform dynamic identification and detect damage in existing structures. This paper describes a new and practical method for damage diagnosis of masonry buildings requiring minimum computational effort. The method is based on the relative variation of modal damping and validated against experimental data from a full scale two storey shake table test. The experiment involves a building subjected to uniaxial vibrations of progressively increasing intensity at the facilities of EUCENTRE laboratory (Pavia, Italy) up to a near collapse damage state. Five time-histories are applied scaling the Montenegro (1979) accelerogram. These strong motion tests are preceded by random vibration tests (RVT's) which are used to perform modal analysis. Two deterministic methods are applied: the single degree of freedom (SDOF) assumption together with the peak-picking method in the discrete frequency domain and the Eigen realisation algorithm with data correlations (ERA-DC) in the discrete time domain. Regarding the former procedure, some improvements are incorporated to locate rigorously the natural frequencies and estimate the modal damping. The progressive evolution of the modal damping is used as a key indicator to characterise damage on the building. Modal damping is connected to the structural mass and stiffness. A square integrated but only with two components expression for proportional (classical) damping is proposed to fit better with the experimental measurements of modal damping ratios. Using this Rayleigh order formulation the contribution of each of the damping components is evaluated. The stiffness component coefficient is proposed as an effective index to detect damage and quantify its intensity.

Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Picozzi, M.; Bindi, D.; Pittore, M.; Kieling, K.; Parolai, S.

2013-04-01

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake's location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin ( M = 8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk ( M = 6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482-1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995-1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679-694, 2002) approach for estimating

Estimation of probability of failure for damage-tolerant aerospace structures

Science.gov (United States)

Halbert, Keith

The majority of aircraft structures are designed to be damage-tolerant such that safe operation can continue in the presence of minor damage. It is necessary to schedule inspections so that minor damage can be found and repaired. It is generally not possible to perform structural inspections prior to every flight. The scheduling is traditionally accomplished through a deterministic set of methods referred to as Damage Tolerance Analysis (DTA). DTA has proven to produce safe aircraft but does not provide estimates of the probability of failure of future flights or the probability of repair of future inspections. Without these estimates maintenance costs cannot be accurately predicted. Also, estimation of failure probabilities is now a regulatory requirement for some aircraft. The set of methods concerned with the probabilistic formulation of this problem are collectively referred to as Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis (PDTA). The goal of PDTA is to control the failure probability while holding maintenance costs to a reasonable level. This work focuses specifically on PDTA for fatigue cracking of metallic aircraft structures. The growth of a crack (or cracks) must be modeled using all available data and engineering knowledge. The length of a crack can be assessed only indirectly through evidence such as non-destructive inspection results, failures or lack of failures, and the observed severity of usage of the structure. The current set of industry PDTA tools are lacking in several ways: they may in some cases yield poor estimates of failure probabilities, they cannot realistically represent the variety of possible failure and maintenance scenarios, and they do not allow for model updates which incorporate observed evidence. A PDTA modeling methodology must be flexible enough to estimate accurately the failure and repair probabilities under a variety of maintenance scenarios, and be capable of incorporating observed evidence as it becomes available. This

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Gentilly 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-03-01

Results of this probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were determined using a suite of conservative assumptions. The intent of this study was to perform a limited hazard assessment that incorporated a range of technically defensible input parameters. To best achieve this goal, input selected for the hazard assessment tended to be conservative with respect to selection of attenuation modes, and seismicity parameters. Seismic hazard estimates at Gentilly 2 were most affected by selection of the attenuation model. Alternative definitions of seismic source zones had a relatively small impact on seismic hazard. A St. Lawrence Rift model including a maximum magnitude of 7.2 m b in the zone containing the site had little effect on the hazard estimate relative to other seismic source zonation models. Mean annual probabilities of exceeding the design peak ground acceleration, and the design response spectrum for the Gentilly 2 site were computed to lie in the range of 0.001 to 0.0001. This hazard result falls well within the range determined to be acceptable for nuclear reactor sites located throughout the eastern United States. (author) 34 refs., 6 tabs., 28 figs

Spots of Seismic Danger Extracted by Properties of Low-Frequency Seismic Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Lyubushin, Alexey

2013-04-01

A new method of seismic danger estimate is presented which is based on using properties of low-frequency seismic noise from broadband networks. Two statistics of noise waveforms are considered: multi-fractal singularity spectrum support width D and minimum normalized entropy En of squared orthogonal wavelet coefficients. The maps of D and En are plotted in the moving time window. Let us call the regions extracted by low values of D and high values of En as "spots of seismic danger" - SSD. Mean values of D and En are strongly anti-correlated - that is why statistics D and En extract the same SSD. Nevertheless their mutual considering is expedient because these parameters are based on different approaches. The physical mechanism which underlies the method is consolidation of small blocks of the Earth's crust into the large one before the strong earthquake. This effect has a consequence that seismic noise does not include spikes which are connected with mutual movements of small blocks. The absence of irregular spikes in the noise follows the decreasing of D and increasing of entropy En. The stability in space and size of the SSD provides estimates of the place and energy of the probable future earthquake. The increasing or decreasing of SSD size and minimum or maximum values of D and En within SSD allows estimate the trend of seismic danger. The method is illustrating by the analysis of seismic noise from broadband seismic network F-net in Japan [1-5]. Statistically significant decreasing of D allowed a hypothesis about approaching Japan to a future seismic catastrophe to be formulated at the middle of 2008. The peculiarities of correlation coefficient estimate within 1 year time window between median values of D and generalized Hurst exponent allowed to make a decision that starting from July of 2010 Japan come to the state of waiting strong earthquake [3]. The method extracted a huge SSD near Japan which includes the region of future Tohoku mega-earthquake and the

Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

Science.gov (United States)

Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

2011-01-01

Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Thermal load non-uniformity estimation for superheater tube bundle damage evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naď Martin

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Industrial boiler damage is a common phenomenon encountered in boiler operation which usually lasts several decades. Since boiler shutdown may be required because of localized failures, it is crucial to predict the most vulnerable parts. If damage occurs, it is necessary to perform root cause analysis and devise corrective measures (repairs, design modifications, etc.. Boiler tube bundles, such as those in superheaters, preheaters and reheaters, are the most exposed and often the most damaged boiler parts. Both short-term and long-term overheating are common causes of tube failures. In these cases, the design temperatures are exceeded, which often results in decrease of remaining creep life. Advanced models for damage evaluation require temperature history, which is available only in rare cases when it has been measured and recorded for the whole service life. However, in most cases it is necessary to estimate the temperature history from available operation history data (inlet and outlet pressures and temperatures etc.. The task may be very challenging because of the combination of complex flow behaviour in the flue gas domain and heat transfer phenomena. This paper focuses on estimating thermal load non-uniformity on superheater tubes via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD simulation of flue gas flow including heat transfer within the domain consisting of a furnace and a part of the first stage of the boiler.

Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

Nuclear fuel assembly seismic amplitude limiter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anthony, A.J.

1977-01-01

The ability of a nuclear reactor to withstand high seismic loading is enhanced by including, on each fuel assembly, at least one seismic grid which reduces the magnitude of the possible lateral deflection of the individual fuel elements and the entire fuel assembly. The reduction in possible deflection minimizes the possibility of impact of the spacer grids of one fuel assembly on those of an adjacent fuel assembly and reduces the magnitude of forces associated with any such impact thereby minimizing the possibility of fuel assembly damage as a result of high seismic loading. The seismic grid is mounted from the fuel assembly guide tubes, has greater external dimensions when compared to the fuel assembly spacer grids and normally does not support or otherwise contact the fuel elements. The reduction in possible deflection is achieved through reduction of the clearance between adjacent fuel assemblies made possible by the use in the seismic grid of a high strength material characterized by favorable thermal expansion characteristics and minimal irradiation induced expansion

Seismic activity parameters of the Finnish potential repository sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.

2000-10-01

Posiva Oy has started a project for estimating the possible earthquake induced rock movements on the deposition holes containing canisters of spent nuclear fuel. These estimates will be made for the four investigation sites, Romuvaara, Kivetty, Olkiluoto and Haestholmen. This study deals with the current and future seismicity associated with the above mentioned sites. Seismic belts that participate the seismic behaviour of the studied sites have been identified and the magnitude-frequency distributions of these belts have been estimated. The seismic activity parameters of the sites have been deduced from the characteristics of the seismic belts in order to forecast the seismicity during the next 100,000 years. The report discusses the possible earthquakes induced by future glaciation. The seismic interpretation seems to indicate that the previous postglacial faults in Finnish Lapland have been generated in compressional environment. The orientation of the rather uniform compression has been NW-SE, which coincide with the current stress field. It seems that, although the impact of postglacial crustal rebound must have been significant, the impact of plate tectonics has been dominant. A major assumption of this study has been that future seismicity will generally resemble the current seismicity. However, when the postglacial seismicity is concerned, the magnitude-frequency distribution is likely different and the expected maximum magnitude will be higher. Maximum magnitudes of future postglacial earthquakes have been approximated by strain release examinations. Seismicity has been examined within the framework of the lineament maps, in order to associate the future significant earthquakes with active fault zones in the vicinity of the potential repository sites. (orig.)

Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lesnykh, V.V.

1996-01-01

Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

Estimation of reservoir fluid volumes through 4-D seismic analysis on Gullfaks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veire, H.S.; Reymond, S.B.; Signer, C.; Tenneboe, P.O.; Soenneland, L.; Schlumberger, Geco-Prakla

1998-12-31

4-D seismic has the potential to monitor hydrocarbon movement in reservoirs during production, and could thereby supplement the predictions of reservoir parameters offered by the reservoir simulator. However 4-D seismic is often more band limited than the vertical resolution required in the reservoir model. As a consequence the seismic data holds a composite response from reservoir parameter changes during production so that the inversion becomes non-unique. A procedure where data from the reservoir model are integrated with seismic data will be presented. The potential of such a procedure is demonstrated through a case study from a recent 4-D survey over the Gullfaks field. 2 figs.

Probabilistic Seismic Performance Model for Tunnel Form Concrete Building Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Bahram Beheshti Aval

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Despite widespread construction of mass-production houses with tunnel form structural system across the world, unfortunately no special seismic code is published for design of this type of construction. Through a literature survey, only a few studies are about the seismic behavior of this type of structural system. Thus based on reasonable numerical results, the seismic performance of structures constructed with this technique considering the effective factors on structural behavior is highly noteworthy in a seismic code development process. In addition, due to newness of this system and observed damages in past earthquakes, and especially random nature of future earthquakes, the importance of probabilistic approach and necessity of developing fragility curves in a next generation Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE frame work are important. In this study, the seismic behavior of 2, 5 and 10 story tunnel form structures with a regular plan is examined. First, the performance levels of these structures under the design earthquake (return period of 475 years with time history analysis and pushover method are assessed, and then through incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curves are extracted for different levels of damage in walls and spandrels. The results indicated that the case study structures have high capacity and strength and show appropriate seismic performance. Moreover, all three structures subjected were in immediate occupancy performance level.

Assessment of Post-Earthquake Damage: St. Salvatore Church in Acquapagana, Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gessica Sferrazza Papa

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article proposes a multidisciplinary approach for the assessment of seismic damage from the perspective of conservation and prevention. A comparison of the state of damage has been carried out in a case study, St. Salvatore church in Acquapagana (MC, as an example of church, which underwent two important seismic events in the Central Italy area, the 1997 and the 2016 earthquakes. The comparison of the state of damage passes through the following stages: (a the territorial seismic overview; (b the historical description and material analysis; (c the identification of macro-elements with activated damage mechanisms; (d the comparison between the two seismic events both from a territorial- and building-scale perspective. This work puts together the archived and the on-site survey data with those elaborated starting from seismogenic information, available from the National Seismological Institute, and it provides a strategy also for other similar conditions. This work is to be considered a contribution to a wider study that could be carried out in the areas hit by the 2016 earthquake. It could also represent a way to collect documentation in the post-earthquake phase, improving the effectiveness of procedures currently applied to the first level of damage assessment.

NRIAG's Effort to Mitigate Earthquake Disasters in Egypt Using GPS and Seismic Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Salah

It has been estimated that, during historical time more than 50 million people have lost their lives in earthquakes during ground shaking, such as soil amplification and/or liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis or its immediate aftereffects, as fires. The distribution of population takes generally no account of earthquake risk, at least on a large scale. An earthquake may be large but not destructive, on the other hand, an earthquake may be destructive but not large. The absence of correlation is due to the fact that, great number of other factors entering into consideration: first of all, the location of the earthquake in relation to populated areas, also soil conditions and building constructions. Soil liquefaction has been identified as the underlying phenomenon for many ground failures, settlements and lateral spreads, which are a major cause of damage to soil structures and building foundations in many events. Egypt is suffered a numerous of destructive earthquakes as well as Kalabsha earthquake (1981, Mag 5.4) near Aswan city and the High dam, Dahshour earthquake (1992, Mag 5.9) near Cairo city and Aqaba earthquake (1995, Mag 7.2). As the category of earthquake damage includes all the phenomena related to the direct and indirect damages, the Egyptian authorities do a great effort to mitigate the earthquake disasters. The seismicity especially at the zones of high activity is investigated in details in order to obtain the active source zones not only by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) but also by the local seismic networks at, Aswan, Hurghada, Aqaba, Abu Dabbab and Dabbaa. On the other hand the soil condition, soil amplification, soil structure interaction, liquefaction and seismic hazard are carried out in particular the urbanized areas and the region near the source zones. All these parameters are integrated to obtain the Egyptian building code which is valid to construct buildings resist damages and consequently mitigate the earthquake

Phase space interrogation of the empirical response modes for seismically excited structures

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Bibhas; George, Riya C.; Mishra, Sudib K.

2017-07-01

Conventional Phase Space Interrogation (PSI) for structural damage assessment relies on exciting the structure with low dimensional chaotic waveform, thereby, significantly limiting their applicability to large structures. The PSI technique is presently extended for structure subjected to seismic excitations. The high dimensionality of the phase space for seismic response(s) are overcome by the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), decomposing the responses to a number of intrinsic low dimensional oscillatory modes, referred as Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Along with their low dimensionality, a few IMFs, retain sufficient information of the system dynamics to reflect the damage induced changes. The mutually conflicting nature of low-dimensionality and the sufficiency of dynamic information are taken care by the optimal choice of the IMF(s), which is shown to be the third/fourth IMFs. The optimal IMF(s) are employed for the reconstruction of the Phase space attractor following Taken's embedding theorem. The widely referred Changes in Phase Space Topology (CPST) feature is then employed on these Phase portrait(s) to derive the damage sensitive feature, referred as the CPST of the IMFs (CPST-IMF). The legitimacy of the CPST-IMF is established as a damage sensitive feature by assessing its variation with a number of damage scenarios benchmarked in the IASC-ASCE building. The damage localization capability, remarkable tolerance to noise contamination and the robustness under different seismic excitations of the feature are demonstrated.

Adaptive multiscale MCMC algorithm for uncertainty quantification in seismic parameter estimation

KAUST Repository

Tan, Xiaosi

2014-08-05

Formulating an inverse problem in a Bayesian framework has several major advantages (Sen and Stoffa, 1996). It allows finding multiple solutions subject to flexible a priori information and performing uncertainty quantification in the inverse problem. In this paper, we consider Bayesian inversion for the parameter estimation in seismic wave propagation. The Bayes\\' theorem allows writing the posterior distribution via the likelihood function and the prior distribution where the latter represents our prior knowledge about physical properties. One of the popular algorithms for sampling this posterior distribution is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which involves making proposals and calculating their acceptance probabilities. However, for large-scale problems, MCMC is prohibitevely expensive as it requires many forward runs. In this paper, we propose a multilevel MCMC algorithm that employs multilevel forward simulations. Multilevel forward simulations are derived using Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Methods that we have proposed earlier (Efendiev et al., 2013a; Chung et al., 2013). Our overall Bayesian inversion approach provides a substantial speed-up both in the process of the sampling via preconditioning using approximate posteriors and the computation of the forward problems for different proposals by using the adaptive nature of multiscale methods. These aspects of the method are discussed n the paper. This paper is motivated by earlier work of M. Sen and his collaborators (Hong and Sen, 2007; Hong, 2008) who proposed the development of efficient MCMC techniques for seismic applications. In the paper, we present some preliminary numerical results.

Seismic anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine fault, New Zealand, estimated by seismic interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Takagi, R.; Okada, T.; Yoshida, K.; Townend, J.; Boese, C. M.; Baratin, L. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Savage, M. K.

2016-12-01

We estimate shear wave velocity anisotropy in shallow crust near the Alpine fault using seismic interferometry of borehole vertical arrays. We utilized four borehole observations: two sensors are deployed in two boreholes of the Deep Fault Drilling Project in the hanging wall side, and the other two sites are located in the footwall side. Surface sensors deployed just above each borehole are used to make vertical arrays. Crosscorrelating rotated horizontal seismograms observed by the borehole and surface sensors, we extracted polarized shear waves propagating from the bottom to the surface of each borehole. The extracted shear waves show polarization angle dependence of travel time, indicating shear wave anisotropy between the two sensors. In the hanging wall side, the estimated fast shear wave directions are parallel to the Alpine fault. Strong anisotropy of 20% is observed at the site within 100 m from the Alpine fault. The hanging wall consists of mylonite and schist characterized by fault parallel foliation. In addition, an acoustic borehole imaging reveals fractures parallel to the Alpine fault. The fault parallel anisotropy suggest structural anisotropy is predominant in the hanging wall, demonstrating consistency of geological and seismological observations. In the footwall side, on the other hand, the angle between the fast direction and the strike of the Alpine fault is 33-40 degrees. Since the footwall is composed of granitoid that may not have planar structure, stress induced anisotropy is possibly predominant. The direction of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) estimated by focal mechanisms of regional earthquakes is 55 degrees of the Alpine fault. Possible interpretation of the difference between the fast direction and SHmax direction is depth rotation of stress field near the Alpine fault. Similar depth rotation of stress field is also observed in the SAFOD borehole at the San Andreas fault.

Estimate of the damage in organs induced by neutrons in three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benites R, J. L.; Vega C, H. R.; Uribe, M. del R.

2014-08-01

By means of Monte Carlo methods was considered the damage in the organs, induced by neutrons, of patients with cancer that receive treatment in modality of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) with lineal accelerator Varian Ix. The objective of this work was to estimate the damage probability in radiotherapy patients, starting from the effective dose by neutrons in the organs and tissues out of the treatment region. For that a three-dimensional mannequin of equivalent tissue of 30 x 100 x 30 cm 3 was modeled and spherical cells were distributed to estimate the Kerma in equivalent tissue and the absorbed dose by neutrons. With the absorbed dose the effective dose was calculated using the weighting factors for the organ type and radiation type. With the effective dose and the damage factors, considered in the ICRP 103, was considered the probability of damage induction in organs. (Author)

Study of modern seismic zoning maps' accuracy (case for Eastern Uzbekistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T.U. Artikov

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched. It is found that the largest deviations, from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average values of distribution of seismic mode and seismic load parameters, may arise due to the imprecise depth of earthquake sources (H, uncertain estimations of seismic potential (Мmax and slope of recurrence curve (γ. The contribution of such uncertainty factors, like imprecise definition of seismic activity А10, incorrect choice of prevailing type of a motion in the source, using regional laws of attenuation of seismic load intensity in distance instead of local once are substantially small. For Eastern Uzbekistan, it was designed the seismic hazard map with the highest value which takes into account every possible factors of uncertainty in parameters of seismic mode and seismic load.

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-02-01

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure

Specific issues for seismic performance of power plant equipment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nawrotzki, Peter [GERB Vibration Control Systems, Berlin (Germany)

2010-01-15

Power plant machinery can be dynamically decoupled from the substructure by the effective use of helical steel springs and viscous dampers. Turbine foundations, coal mills, boiler feed pumps and other machine foundations benefit from this type of elastic support systems to mitigate the transmission of operational vibration. The application of these devices may also be used to protect against earthquakes and other catastrophic events, i.e. airplane crash, of particular importance in nuclear facilities. This article illustrates basic principles of elastic support systems and applications on power plant equipment and buildings in medium and high seismic areas. Spring damper combinations with special stiffness properties are used to reduce seismic acceleration levels of turbine components and other safety or non-safety related structures. For turbine buildings, the integration of the turbine sub-structure into the machine building can further reduce stress levels in all structural members. The application of this seismic protection strategy for a spent fuel storage tank in a high seismic area is also discussed. Safety in nuclear facilities is of particular importance and recent seismic events and the resulting damage in these facilities again brings up the discussion. One of the latest events is the 2007 Chuetsu earthquake in Japan. The resulting damage in the Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant can be found in several reports, e.g. in Yamashita. (orig.)

Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

2017-08-01

We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

PARAMETERS OF KAMCHATKA SEISMICITY IN 2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadim A. Saltykov

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes seismicity of Kamchatka for the period of 2008 and presents 2D distribution of background seismicity parameters calculated from data published in the Regional Catalogue of Kamchatka Earthquakes. Parameters under study are total released seismic energy, seismic activity A10, slope of recurrence graph γ, parameters of RTL, ΔS and Z-function methods, and clustering of earthquakes. Estimations of seismicity are obtained for a region bordered by latitude 50.5–56.5N, longitude 156E–167E, with depths to 300 km. Earthquakes of energy classes not less than 8.5 as per the Fedotov’s classification are considered. The total seismic energy released in 2008 is estimated. According to a function of annual seismic energy distribution, an amount of seismic energy released in 2008 was close to the median level (Fig. 1. Over 2/3 of the total amount of seismic energy released in 2008 resulted from three largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9. About 5 percent of the total number of seismic events are comprised of grouped earthquakes, i.e. aftershocks and swarms. A schematic map of the largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9 and grouped seismic events which occurred in 2008 is given in Fig. 2; their parameters are listed in Table 1. Grouped earthquakes are excluded from the catalogue. A map showing epicenters of independent earthquakes is given in Fig. 3. The slope of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 is based on the Gutenberg-Richter law stating the fundamental property of seismic process. The recurrence graph slope is calculated from continuous exponential distribution of earthquakes by energy classes. Using γ is conditioned by observations that in some cases the slope of the recurrence graph decreases prior to a large earthquake. Activity A10 is calculated from the number of earthquakes N and recurrence graph slope γ. Average slopes of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 for the area under study in 2008 are calculated; our

Review on the seismic safety of JRR-3 according to the revised regulatory code on seismic design for nuclear reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kobayashi, Tetsuya; Araki, Masaaki; Ohba, Toshinobu; Torii, Yoshiya [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan); Takeuchi, Masaki [Nuclear Safety Commission (Japan)

2012-03-15

JRR-3(Japan Research Reactor No.3) with the thermal power of 20MW is a light water moderated and cooled, swimming pool type research reactor. JRR-3 has been operated without major troubles. This paper presents about review on the seismic safety of JRR-3 according to the revised regulatory code on seismic design for nuclear reactors. In addition, some topics concerning damages in JRR-3 due to the Great East Japan Earthquake are presented. (author)

Application of the local-to-global approach to the study of infilled frame structures under seismic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Combescure, D.

2000-01-01

The seismic performance of civil engineering structures may be estimated by using two levels of modelling. At the local level, each constituent has its own constitutive law and geometric finite element support. The main phenomena such as the cracking and the crushing of concrete and masonry could be reproduced by using the continuous damage or plasticity theories. However the cost of the computations does not allow extensive or dynamic studies and thus the global level - where the constitutive laws based on empirical rules reproduce the behaviour of the structural elements - represents the unique strategy for the analysis of complete civil engineering structures under seismic loading. The present paper aims at presenting the application of these two modelling levels in order to assess the seismic performance of masonry infilled R/C frame structures. The one-bay masonry infilled frames tested at Lisbon under cyclic loading and the four-storey building tested at ELSA have been used for the validation of the modelling approach. (orig.)

Earthquake loss estimation for a gas lifeline transportation system in Colombia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamin, L.E.; Arambula, S.; Reyes, J.C. [Universidad de los Andes, Bogota (Colombia). Centro de Innovacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico; Belage, S.; Vega, A.; Gil, W. [TransGas de Occidente S.A., Bogota (Colombia)

2004-07-01

Methodologies are needed to estimate the seismic risk facing natural gas distribution systems in Colombia in order to establish insurance strategies, risk assessments and emergency plans. This study estimated the maximum probable losses associated with Colombia's 770 km long gas transportation system which stretches from Mariquita to Cali. The pipeline is vulnerable to seismic events, volcanic eruptions, extreme hydrological conditions, and their associated effects such as landslides, liquefaction and avalanches. A geographic information system (GIS) which includes seismic, volcanic, landslide and liquefaction hazards was used to estimate earthquake loss estimates for the natural gas distribution system. Elastic and inelastic finite element methods were used to evaluate the vulnerability of pipelines, bridges, underground crossings and valves. The results were incorporated into the GIS and were used to quantify the probable maximum losses for the system, the most critical associated event, the system's critical zones and the probable damage scenarios. The information was used to define insurance strategies, emergency and contingency plans. It was concluded that due to natural hazards, the natural gas distribution system is at moderate risk despite the low vulnerability of its components. Volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes could produce indirect phenomena such as landslides and liquefaction which could greatly influence the system and which would require adequate risk management. 14 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

Estimation of subsurface structures in a Minami Noshiro 3D seismic survey region by seismic-array observations of microtremors; Minami Noshiro sanjigen jishin tansa kuikinai no hyoso kozo ni tsuite. Bido no array kansoku ni yoru suitei

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okada, H; Ling, S; Ishikawa, K [Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan); Tsuburaya, Y; Minegishi, M [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan). Technology Research Center

1997-05-27

Japan National Oil Corporation Technology Research Center has carried out experiments on the three-dimensional seismic survey method which is regarded as an effective means for petroleum exploration. The experiments were conducted at the Minami Noshiro area in Akita Prefecture. Seismometer arrays were developed in radii of 30 to 300 m at seven points in the three-dimensional seismic exploration region to observe microtremors. The purpose is to estimate S-wave velocities from the ground surface to the foundation by using surface waves included in microtremors. Estimation of the surface bed structure is also included in the purpose since this is indispensable in seismic exploration using the reflection method. This paper reports results of the microtremor observations and the estimation on S-wave velocities (microtremor exploration). One or two kinds of arrays with different sizes composed of seven observation points per area were developed to observe microtremors independently. The important point in the result obtained in the present experiments is that a low velocity bed suggesting existence of faults was estimated. It will be necessary to repeat experiments and observations in the future to verify whether this microtremor exploration method has that much of exploration capability. For the time being, however, interest is addressed to considerations on comparison with the result of 3D experiments using the reflection method. 4 refs., 7 figs.

Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

Science.gov (United States)

Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

2015-03-01

For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

Improving total-building seismic performance using linear fluid viscous dampers

OpenAIRE

Del Gobbo, GM; Blakeborough, A; Williams, MS

2018-01-01

Previous research has revealed that Eurocode-compliant structures can experience structural and nonstructural damage during earthquakes. Retrofitting buildings with fluid viscous dampers (FVDs) can improve interstorey drifts and floor accelerations, two structural parameters that characterize seismic demand. Previous research focusing on FVD applications for improving seismic performance has focused on structural performance. Structural parameters such as interstorey drifts and floor accelera...

Estimation of regional air-quality damages from Marcellus Shale natural gas extraction in Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Litovitz, Aviva; Abramzon, Shmuel; Curtright, Aimee; Samaras, Constantine; Burger, Nicholas

2013-01-01

This letter provides a first-order estimate of conventional air pollutant emissions, and the monetary value of the associated environmental and health damages, from the extraction of unconventional shale gas in Pennsylvania. Region-wide estimated damages ranged from $7.2 to $32 million dollars for 2011. The emissions from Pennsylvania shale gas extraction represented only a few per cent of total statewide emissions, and the resulting statewide damages were less than those estimated for each of the state’s largest coal-based power plants. On the other hand, in counties where activities are concentrated, NO x emissions from all shale gas activities were 20–40 times higher than allowable for a single minor source, despite the fact that individual new gas industry facilities generally fall below the major source threshold for NO x . Most emissions are related to ongoing activities, i.e., gas production and compression, which can be expected to persist beyond initial development and which are largely unrelated to the unconventional nature of the resource. Regulatory agencies and the shale gas industry, in developing regulations and best practices, should consider air emissions from these long-term activities, especially if development occurs in more populated areas of the state where per-ton emissions damages are significantly higher. (letter)

Seismic isolation for existing masonry houses in Groningen/ NL combined with thermal upgrading

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blok, Rijk; Teuffel, Patrick

2015-01-01

Induced earthquakes, caused by the winning of natural Gas in the North of the Netherlands (Groningen province), are causing significant damage to the existing, often relatively weak, masonry buildings. This seismic hazard and seismic rehabilitation problem in the Groningen area involves much more

Seismic detection of tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Tatom, F. B.

1993-01-01

Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

Evaluating Seismic Activity in Ethiopia

African Journals Online (AJOL)

map is constructed from which seismic risks in a given sector ... troyed (10, 11) and the people of Eritrea remember these years ... terms of damage caused to man-made structures; they refer to .... walls of a well designed modern building were deta- ched from ... Although, at present, no theory is satisfactory, the fact remains.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Science.gov (United States)

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Science.gov (United States)

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

2018-01-01

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

Seismic Observations in the Taipei Metropolitan Area Using the Downhole Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Win-Gee Huang

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Underlain by soft soils, the Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA experienced major damage due to ground-motion amplification during the Hualien earthquake of 1986, the Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999, the Hualien earthquake of 2002 and the Taitung earthquake of 2003. To study how a local site can substantially change the characteristics of seismic waves as they pass through soft deposits below the free surface, two complementary downhole seismic arrays have been operated in the TMA, since 1991 and 2008. The accelerometer downhole array is composed of eight boreholes at depths in excess of 300 meters. The downhole array velocity sensor collocated with accelerometer composed of four boreholes at depths up to 90 meters. The integrated seismic network monitors potential earthquakes originating from faults in and around the TMA and provides wide-dynamic range measurement of data ranging in amplitude from seismic background noise levels to damage levels as a result of shaking. The data sets can be used to address on the response of soft-soil deposits to ground motions. One of the major considerations is the nonlinear response of soft soil deposits at different levels of excitation. The collocated acceloerometer and velocity sensors at boreholes give the necessary data for studies of non-linearity to be acquired. Such measurements in anticipation of future large, damaging earthquakes will be of special importance for the mitigation of earthquake losses.

Seismic performance evaluation of an infilled rocking wall frame structure through quasi-static cyclic testing

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Peng; Wu, Shoujun; Wang, Haishen; Nie, Xin

2018-04-01

Earthquake investigations have illustrated that even code-compliant reinforced concrete frames may suffer from soft-story mechanism. This damage mode results in poor ductility and limited energy dissipation. Continuous components offer alternatives that may avoid such failures. A novel infilled rocking wall frame system is proposed that takes advantage of continuous component and rocking characteristics. Previous studies have investigated similar systems that combine a reinforced concrete frame and a wall with rocking behavior used. However, a large-scale experimental study of a reinforced concrete frame combined with a rocking wall has not been reported. In this study, a seismic performance evaluation of the newly proposed infilled rocking wall frame structure was conducted through quasi-static cyclic testing. Critical joints were designed and verified. Numerical models were established and calibrated to estimate frame shear forces. The results evaluation demonstrate that an infilled rocking wall frame can effectively avoid soft-story mechanisms. Capacity and initial stiffness are greatly improved and self-centering behavior is achieved with the help of the infilled rocking wall. Drift distribution becomes more uniform with height. Concrete cracks and damage occurs in desired areas. The infilled rocking wall frame offers a promising approach to achieving seismic resilience.

Seismic Design of a Single Bored Tunnel: Longitudinal Deformations and Seismic Joints

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, J.; Moon, T.

2018-03-01

The large diameter bored tunnel passing through rock and alluvial deposits subjected to seismic loading is analyzed for estimating longitudinal deformations and member forces on the segmental tunnel liners. The project site has challenges including high hydrostatic pressure, variable ground profile and high seismic loading. To ensure the safety of segmental tunnel liner from the seismic demands, the performance-based two-level design earthquake approach, Functional Evaluation Earthquake and Safety Evaluation Earthquake, has been adopted. The longitudinal tunnel and ground response seismic analyses are performed using a three-dimensional quasi-static linear elastic and nonlinear elastic discrete beam-spring elements to represent segmental liner and ground spring, respectively. Three components (longitudinal, transverse and vertical) of free-field ground displacement-time histories evaluated from site response analyses considering wave passage effects have been applied at the end support of the strain-compatible ground springs. The result of the longitudinal seismic analyses suggests that seismic joint for the mitigation measure requiring the design deflection capacity of 5-7.5 cm is to be furnished at the transition zone between hard and soft ground condition where the maximum member forces on the segmental liner (i.e., axial, shear forces and bending moments) are induced. The paper illustrates how detailed numerical analyses can be practically applied to evaluate the axial and curvature deformations along the tunnel alignment under difficult ground conditions and to provide the seismic joints at proper locations to effectively reduce the seismic demands below the allowable levels.

Earthquake source parameter and focal mechanism estimates for the Western Quebec Seismic Zone in eastern Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez Padilla, A. M.; Onwuemeka, J.; Liu, Y.; Harrington, R. M.

2017-12-01

The Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) is a 160-km-wide band of intraplate seismicity extending 500 km from the Adirondack Highlands (United States) to the Laurentian uplands (Canada). Historically, the WQSZ has experienced over fifteen earthquakes above magnitude 5, with the noteworthy MN5.2 Ladysmith event on May 17, 2013. Previous studies have associated seismicity in the area to the reactivation of Early Paleozoic normal faults within a failed Iapetan rift arm, or strength contrasts between mafic intrusions and felsic rocks due to the Mesozoic track of the Great Meteor hotspot. A good understanding of seismicity and its relation to pre-existing structures requires information about event source properties, such as static stress drop and fault plane orientation, which can be constrained via spectral analysis and focal mechanism solutions. Using data recorded by the CNSN and USArray Transportable Array, we first characterize b-value for 709 events between 2012 and 2016 in WQSZ, obtaining a value of 0.75. We then determine corner frequency and seismic moment values by fitting S-wave spectra on transverse components at all stations for 35 events MN 2.7+. We select event pairs with highly similar waveforms, proximal hypocenters, and magnitudes differing by 1-2 units. Our preliminary results using single-station spectra show corner frequencies of 15 to 40 Hz and stress drop values between 7 and 130 MPa, typical of intraplate seismicity. Last, we solve focal mechanism solutions of 35 events with impulsive P-wave arrivals at a minimum of 8 stations using the hybridMT moment tensor inversion algorithm. Our preliminary results suggest predominantly thrust faulting mechanisms, and at times oblique thrust faulting. The P-axis trend of the focal mechanism solutions suggests a principal stress orientation of NE-SW, which is consistent with that derived from focal mechanisms of earthquakes prior to 2013. We plan to fit the event pair spectral ratios to correct for attenuation

The Estimation Modelling of Damaged Areas by Harmful Animals

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, R.; Sung, M.; Hwang, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2017-12-01

The Republic of Korea has undergone rapid development and urban development without sufficient consideration of the environment. This type of growth is accompanied by a reduction in forest area and wildlife habitat. It is a phenomenon that affects the habitat of large mammals more than small. Especially in Korea, the damage caused by wild boar(Sus scrofa) is harsher than other large mammalian species like water deer(Hydropotes inermis), which also means that the number of these reported cases of this species is higher than ones of other mammals. Wild boar has three to eight cubs per year and it is possible to breed every year, which makes it more populous comparing with the fragmented habitats. It could be regarded as one of the top predators in Korea, which it is inevitable for humans to intervene this creature in population control. In addition, some individuals have been forced to be retreated from other habitats in major habitats, or to invade human activity areas for food activity, thereby destroying crops. Ultimately, this mammal species has been treated as farm pest animals through committing road kills and urban emergences. In this study, we has estimated possible farm pest animal present points from the damage district using 2,505 hazardous wildlife damage areas with four types of geological informations, four kinds of forest information, land cover, and distribution of farmland occurred in Gyeongnam province in Korea. In the estimating model, utilizing MAXENT, information of background point was set to 10,000, 70% of the damaged sites were used to construct the model, 30% was used for verification, and 10 times of crossvalidate were proceeded - verified by AUC of ROC. As a result of analyses, AUC was 0.847, and the percent contribution of the forest information was the distance toward inner-forest areas, 36.1%, the land cover, 16.5%, the distance from the field, 14.9%. Furthermore, the permutation importance was 24.9% of the cover, 12.3% of the height

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

Application of seismic interferometry to an exploration of subsurface structure by using microtremors. Estimation of deep ground structures in the Wakasa bay region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Hiroaki; Kuriyama, Masayuki; Higashi, Sadanori; Shiba, Yoshiaki; Okazaki, Atsushi

2015-01-01

We carried out continuous measurements of microtremors to synthesize Green's function based on seismic interferometry in order to estimate deep subsurface structures of the Ohshima peninsula (OSM) and the Otomi peninsula (OTM) in the Wakasa bay region. Using more than 80 days of data, dispersive waveforms in the cross correlations were identified as a Green's function based on seismic interferometry. Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at OSM and OTM were estimated by two different method using microtremors: first, by analyzing microtremor array data, and second, by applying the f-k spectral analysis to synthesized Green's functions derived from cross-correlation with a common observation station. Relatively longer period of phase velocities were estimated by the f-k spectral analysis using the synthesized Green's functions with a common observation station. This suggests that the synthesized Green's functions from seismic interferometry can provide a valuable data for phase velocity inversion to estimate a deep subsurface structure. By identifying deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM based on an inversion of phase velocity from both methods, the depth of S wave velocity of about 3.5 km/s, considered as a top of seismogenic layer, were determined to be 3.8 - 4.0 km at OSM and 4.4 - 4.6 km at OTM, respectively. Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities were estimated from the multiple filtering analysis of the synthesized Green's functions. From the comparison of observed surface wave group velocities and theoretical group velocities of OSM and OTM, we demonstrated that the observed group velocities were in good agreement with the average of theoretical group velocities calculated by identified deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM. It is suggested that the deep subsurface structure of the shallow sea region between two peninsulas is continuous structure from OSM to OTM and that Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities using

Systems considerations in seismic margin evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buttermer, D.R.

1987-01-01

Increasing knowledge in the geoscience field has led to the understanding that, although highly unlikely, it is possible for a nuclear power plant to be subjected to earthquake ground motion greater than that for which the plant was designed. While it is recognized that there are conservatisms inherent in current design practices, interest has developed in evaluating the seismic risk of operating plants. Several plant-specific seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) have been completed to address questions related to the seismic risk of a plant. The results from such SPRAs are quite informative, but such studies may entail a considerable amount of expensive analysis of large portions of the plant. As an alternative to an SPRA, it may be more practical to select an earthquake level above the design basis for which plant survivability is to be demonstrated. The principal question to be addressed in a seismic margin evaluation is: At what ground motion levels does one have a high confidence that the probability of seismically induced core damage is sufficiently low? In a seismic margin evaluation, an earthquake level is selected (based on site-specific geoscience considerations) for which a stable, long-term safe shutdown condition is to be demonstrated. This prespecified earthquake level is commonly referred to as the seismic margin earthquake (SME). The Electric Power Research Institute is currently supporting a research project to develop procedures for use by the utilities to allow them to perform nuclear plant seismic margin evaluations. This paper describes the systems-related aspects of these procedures

SHAKING TABLE TEST AND EFFECTIVE STRESS ANALYSIS ON SEISMIC PERFORMANCE WITH SEISMIC ISOLATION RUBBER TO THE INTERMEDIATE PART OF PILE FOUNDATION IN LIQUEFACTION

Science.gov (United States)

Uno, Kunihiko; Otsuka, Hisanori; Mitou, Masaaki

The pile foundation is heavily damaged at the boundary division of the ground types, liquefied ground and non-liquefied ground, during an earthquake and there is a possibility of the collapse of the piles. In this study, we conduct a shaking table test and effective stress analysis of the influence of soil liquefaction and the seismic inertial force exerted on the pile foundation. When the intermediate part of the pile, there is at the boundary division, is subjected to section force, this part increases in size as compared to the pile head in certain instances. Further, we develop a seismic resistance method for a pile foundation in liquefaction using seismic isolation rubber and it is shown the middle part seismic isolation system is very effective.

Longitudinal Seismic Behavior of a Single-Tower Cable-Stayed Bridge Subjected to Near-Field Earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Yi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Cable-stayed bridges are quite sensitive to large amplitude oscillations from earthquakes and seismic damage was observed for Shipshaw Bridge and Chi-Lu Bridge during past earthquakes. In order to investigate seismic damage of cable-stayed bridges, a 1 : 20 scale model of a single-tower cable-stayed bridge with A-shaped tower was designed, constructed, and tested on shake tables at Tongji University, China. One typical near-field ground motion was used to excite the model from low to high intensity. Test result showed that severe structural damage occurred at the tower of the model including parallel concrete cracks from bottom to nearly half height of the tower, concrete spalling, and exposed bars at top tower 0.2 m above the section where two skewed legs intersect. Posttest analysis was conducted and compared with test results. It is revealed that the numerical model was able to simulate the seismic damage of the test model by modeling nonlinearity of different components for cable-stayed bridges, namely, the tower, bents, superstructure, cables, and bearings. Numerical analysis also revealed that cable relaxation, which was detected during the test, had limited influence on the overall seismic response of the bridge with maximum error of 12%.

Documentation for the Southeast Asia seismic hazard maps

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Mark; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Dewey, James; Luco, Nicolas; Crone, Anthony; Lidke, David; Rukstales, Kenneth

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. During the course of this project, several great earthquakes ruptured subduction zones along the southern coast of Indonesia (fig. 1) causing additional structural damage and casualties in nearby communities. Future structural damage and societal losses from large earthquakes can be mitigated by providing an advance warning of tsunamis and introducing seismic hazard provisions in building codes that allow buildings and structures to withstand strong ground shaking associated with anticipated earthquakes. The Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project was funded through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System to develop seismic hazard maps that would assist engineers in designing buildings that will resist earthquake strong ground shaking. An important objective of this project was to discuss regional hazard issues with building code officials, scientists, and engineers in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The code communities have been receptive to these discussions and are considering updating the Thailand and Indonesia building codes to incorporate new information (for example, see notes from Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit, Chulalongkorn University in Appendix A).

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2008-12-01

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

Linkages of fracture network geometry and hydro-mechanical properties to spatio-temporal variations of seismicity in Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Selles, A.; Mikhailov, V. O.; Arora, K.; Ponomarev, A.; Gopinadh, D.; Smirnov, V.; Srinu, Y.; Satyavani, N.; Chadha, R. K.; Davulluri, S.; Rao, N. P.

2017-12-01

Well logging data and core samples from the deep boreholes in the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone (KWSZ) provided a glimpse of the 3-D fracture network responsible for triggered earthquakes in the region. The space-time pattern of earthquakes during the last five decades show strong linkage of favourably oriented fractures system deciphered from airborne LiDAR and borehole structural logging to the seismicity. We used SAR interferometry data on surface displacements to estimate activity of the inferred faults. The failure in rocks at depths is largely governed by overlying lithostatic and pore fluid pressure in the rock matrix which are subject to change in space and time. While lithostatic pressure tends to increase with depth pore pressure is prone to fluctuations due to any change in the hydrological regime. Based on the earthquake catalogue data, the seasonal variations in seismic activity associated with annual fluctuations in the reservoir water level were analyzed over the time span of the entire history of seismological observations in this region. The regularities in the time changes in the structure of seasonal variations are revealed. An increase in pore fluid pressure can result in rock fracture and oscillating pore fluid pressures due to a reservoir loading and unloading cycles can cause iterative and cumulative damage, ultimately resulting in brittle failure under relatively low effective mean stress conditions. These regularities were verified by laboratory physical modeling. Based on our observations of main trends of spatio-temporal variations in seismicity as well as the spatial distribution of fracture network a conceptual model is presented to explain the triggered earthquakes in the KWSZ. The work was supported under the joint Russian-Indian project of the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) and the Department of Science and Technology (DST) of India (RSF project no. 16-47-02003 and DST project INT/RUS/RSF/P-13).

The Apollo passive seismic experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

1979-01-01

The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

Nonlinear seismic analysis of a thick-walled concrete canyon structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkel, B.V.; Wagenblast, G.R.

1989-01-01

Conventional linear seismic analyses of a thick-walled lightly reinforced concrete structure were found to grossly underestimate its seismic capacity. Reasonable estimates of the seismic capacity were obtained by performing approximate nonlinear spectrum analyses along with static collapse evaluations. A nonlinear time history analyses is planned as the final verification of seismic adequacy

Rock-physics and seismic-inversion based reservoir characterization of the Haynesville Shale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Meijuan; Spikes, Kyle T

2016-01-01

Seismic reservoir characterization of unconventional gas shales is challenging due to their heterogeneity and anisotropy. Rock properties of unconventional gas shales such as porosity, pore-shape distribution, and composition are important for interpreting seismic data amplitude variations in order to locate optimal drilling locations. The presented seismic reservoir characterization procedure applied a grid-search algorithm to estimate the composition, pore-shape distribution, and porosity at the seismic scale from the seismically inverted impedances and a rock-physics model, using the Haynesville Shale as a case study. All the proposed rock properties affected the seismic velocities, and the combined effects of these rock properties on the seismic amplitude were investigated simultaneously. The P- and S-impedances correlated negatively with porosity, and the V _P/V _S correlated positively with clay fraction and negatively with the pore-shape distribution and quartz fraction. The reliability of these estimated rock properties at the seismic scale was verified through comparisons between two sets of elastic properties: one coming from inverted impedances, which were obtained from simultaneous inversion of prestack seismic data, and one derived from these estimated rock properties. The differences between the two sets of elastic properties were less than a few percent, verifying the feasibility of the presented seismic reservoir characterization. (paper)

A Method for Estimation of Death Tolls in Disastrous Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, C.; Tien, Y.; Teng, T.

2004-12-01

Fatality tolls caused by the disastrous earthquake are the one of the most important items among the earthquake damage and losses. If we can precisely estimate the potential tolls and distribution of fatality in individual districts as soon as the earthquake occurrences, it not only make emergency programs and disaster management more effective but also supply critical information to plan and manage the disaster and the allotments of disaster rescue manpower and medicine resources in a timely manner. In this study, we intend to reach the estimation of death tolls caused by the Chi-Chi earthquake in individual districts based on the Attributive Database of Victims, population data, digital maps and Geographic Information Systems. In general, there were involved many factors including the characteristics of ground motions, geological conditions, types and usage habits of buildings, distribution of population and social-economic situations etc., all are related to the damage and losses induced by the disastrous earthquake. The density of seismic stations in Taiwan is the greatest in the world at present. In the meantime, it is easy to get complete seismic data by earthquake rapid-reporting systems from the Central Weather Bureau: mostly within about a minute or less after the earthquake happened. Therefore, it becomes possible to estimate death tolls caused by the earthquake in Taiwan based on the preliminary information. Firstly, we form the arithmetic mean of the three components of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) to give the PGA Index for each individual seismic station, according to the mainshock data of the Chi-Chi earthquake. To supply the distribution of Iso-seismic Intensity Contours in any districts and resolve the problems for which there are no seismic station within partial districts through the PGA Index and geographical coordinates in individual seismic station, the Kriging Interpolation Method and the GIS software, The population density depends on

Toward 2D Seismic Wavefield Monitoring: Seismic Gradiometry for Long-Period Seismogram and Short-Period Seismogram Envelope applied to the Hi-net Array

Science.gov (United States)

Maeda, T.; Nishida, K.; Takagi, R.; Obara, K.

2015-12-01

The high-sensitive seismograph network Japan (Hi-net) operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has about 800 stations with average separation of 20 km. We can observe long-period seismic wave propagation as a 2D wavefield with station separations shorter than wavelength. In contrast, short-period waves are quite incoherent at stations, however, their envelope shapes resemble at neighbor stations. Therefore, we may be able to extract seismic wave energy propagation by seismogram envelope analysis. We attempted to characterize seismic waveform at long-period and its envelope at short-period as 2D wavefield by applying seismic gradiometry. We applied the seismic gradiometry to a synthetic long-period (20-50s) dataset prepared by numerical simulation in realistic 3D medium at the Hi-net station layout. Wave amplitude and its spatial derivatives are estimated by using data at nearby stations. The slowness vector, the radiation pattern and the geometrical spreading are extracted from estimated velocity, displacement and its spatial derivatives. For short-periods at shorter than 1 s, seismogram envelope shows temporal and spatial broadening through scattering by medium heterogeneity. It is expected that envelope shape may be coherent among nearby stations. Based on this idea, we applied the same method to the time-integration of seismogram envelope to estimate its spatial derivatives. Together with seismogram envelope, we succeeded in estimating the slowness vector from the seismogram envelope as well as long-period waveforms by synthetic test, without using phase information. Our preliminarily results show that the seismic gradiometry suits the Hi-net to extract wave propagation characteristics both at long and short periods. This method is appealing that it can estimate waves at homogeneous grid to monitor seismic wave as a wavefield. It is promising to obtain phase velocity variation from direct waves, and to grasp wave

Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flores R, J.H

1992-01-15

The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flores R, J H

1992-01-15

The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

Examples of invasive and non-invasive methods for estimation of shear-wave velocity profile in Bucharest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aldea, A.; Albota, E.; Yamanaka, H.; Fukumoto, S.; Poiata, N.

2007-01-01

The estimation of subsurface shear-wave velocity is of major importance for understanding and modelling site-response and surface ground motion. The shear-wave velocity profile strongly influence the shear-wave part of the seismic motion that proved to be the most damaging one. The improvement of input seismic ground motion for design is one of the long-term objectives within the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Project in Romania. Two approaches were used: installation of a digital seismic network and soil investigations (in situ and in laboratory). National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR, Romania), the implementing agency of JICA Project, performed these activities in cooperation with Japanese partner institutions, and an efficient know-how transfer was achieved. Between the soil investigation activities, a special importance was given to the estimation of shear-wave velocity profile. The present paper presents results from PS logging tests at NCSRR seismic station sites, and from single-station and array microtremor measurements. Other results from PS logging tests, surface-wave method and in situ and laboratory geotechnical investigations are presented in other papers in these proceedings. In future, a joint-collaborative effort of Romanian institutions may allow an improved characterisation of the soil profile beneath Bucharest. (authors)

Development of Friction Pendulum System to Reduce the Seismic Force

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, J. B.; Kim, J. K.; Hwang, K. M.; Kwon, H. O.; Lee, C. W

2007-01-01

Most of the damages in electrical facilities are occurred at transformer due to the great earthquake. The damage types of transformer are the failure of upper bushing of transformer, overturning of transformer due to geometry with high height, and the failure of anchorage of transformer. The objective of this study is to develop the seismic isolator to prevent the damage of transformer due to earthquake considering the importance of transformer

Estimating Cone and Seed Production and Monitoring Pest Damage in Southern Pine Seed Orchards

Science.gov (United States)

Carl W. Fatzinger; H. David Muse; Thomas Miller; Helen T. Bhattacharyya

1988-01-01

Field sampling procedures and computer programs are described for monitoring seed production and pest damage in southern pine seed orchards. The system estimates total orchard yields of female strobili and seeds, quantifies pest damage, determines times of year when losses occur, and produces life tables for female strobili. An example is included to illustrate the...

Considerations for developing seismic design criteria for nuclear waste storage repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, G.N.; Yanev, P.I.; Scholl, R.E.

1980-04-01

The function of seismic design criteria is to reduce the potential for hazards that may arise during various stages of the repository life. During the operational phase, the major concern is with the possible effects of earthquakes on surface facilities, underground facilities, and equipment. During the decommissioned phase, the major concern is with the potential effects of earthquakes on the geologic formation, which may result in a reduction in isolation capacity. Existing standards and guides or criteria used for the static and seismic design of licensed nuclear facilities were reviewed and evaluated for their applicability to repository design. This report is directed mainly toward the development of seismic design criteria for the underground structures of repositories. An initial step in the development of seismic design criteria for the underground structures of repositories is the development of performance criteria, or minimum standards of acceptable behavior. A number of possible damage modes are identified for the operating phase of the repository; however, no damage modes are foreseen that would perturb the long-term function of the repository, except for the possibility of increased permeability within the rock mass. Subsequent steps in formulating acceptable seismic design criteria for the underground structures involve the quantification of the design process. The report discusses the necessity of specifying the form of ground motion that would be needed for seismic analysis and the procedures that may be used for making ground motion predictions. Further discussions outline what is needed for analysis, including rock properties, failure criteria, modeling techniques, seismic hardening criteria for the host rock mass, and probabilistic considerations

Seismic attenuation in the African LLSVP estimated from PcS phases

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chujie; Grand, Stephen P.

2018-05-01

Seismic tomography models have revealed two broad regions in the lowermost mantle marked by ∼3% slower shear velocity than normal beneath the south central Pacific and southern Africa. These two regions are known as large-low-shear-velocity provinces (LLSVP). There is debate over whether the LLSVPs can be explained by purely thermal variations or whether they must be chemically distinct from normal mantle. Elastic properties alone, have been unable to distinguish the thermal from chemical interpretations. Anelastic structure, however, can help discriminate among models of the LLSVPs since intrinsic attenuation is more sensitive to temperature than to chemical variations. Here we estimate Qμ (the shear wave quality factor) in the African LLSVP using PcS waves generated from a Scotia Arc earthquake, recorded by broadband seismometers deployed in Southern Africa during the Kaapvaal experiment. The upward leg of the PcS waves sweeps from normal mantle into the African LLSVP across the array. We use the spectral ratio (SR) and instantaneous frequency matching (IFM) techniques to measure the differential attenuation (Δt*) between waves sampling the African LLSVP and the waves that sample normal lower mantle. Using both methods for estimating Δt* we find that PcS waves sampling the LLSVP are more attenuated than the waves that miss the LLSVP yielding a Δt* difference of more than 1 s. Using the Δt* measurements we estimate the average Qμ in the LLSVP to be about 110. Using a range of activation enthalpy (H*) estimates, we find an average temperature anomaly within the LLSVP ranging from +250 to +800 K. Our estimated temperature anomaly range overlaps previous isochemical geodynamic studies that explain the LLSVP as a purely thermal structure although the large uncertainties cannot rule out chemical variations as well.

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Varnes, D.J.

1989-01-01

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic

Seismic monitoring of the Yucca Mountain facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garbin, H.D.; Herrington, P.B.; Kromer, R.P.

1997-01-01

Questions have arisen regarding the applicability of seismic sensors to detect mining (re-entry) with a tunnel boring machine (TBM). Unlike cut and blast techniques of mining which produce impulsive seismic signals, the TBM produces seismic signals which are of long duration. (There are well established techniques available for detecting and locating the sources of the impulsive signals.) The Yucca Mountain repository offered an opportunity to perform field evaluations of the capabilities of seismic sensors because during much of 1996, mining there was progressing with the use of a TBM. During the mining of the repository's southern branch, an effort was designed to evaluate whether the TBM could be detected, identified and located using seismic sensors. Three data acquisition stations were established in the Yucca Mountain area to monitor the TBM activity. A ratio of short term average to long term average algorithm was developed for use in signal detection based on the characteristics shown in the time series. For location of the source of detected signals, FK analysis was used on the array data to estimate back azimuths. The back azimuth from the 3 component system was estimated from the horizontal components. Unique features in the timing of the seismic signal were used to identify the source as the TBM

User's manual of SECOM2: a computer code for seismic system reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uchiyama, Tomoaki; Oikawa, Tetsukuni; Kondo, Masaaki; Tamura, Kazuo

2002-03-01

This report is the user's manual of seismic system reliability analysis code SECOM2 (Seismic Core Melt Frequency Evaluation Code Ver.2) developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute for systems reliability analysis, which is one of the tasks of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SECOM2 code has many functions such as: Calculation of component failure probabilities based on the response factor method, Extraction of minimal cut sets (MCSs), Calculation of conditional system failure probabilities for given seismic motion levels at the site of an NPP, Calculation of accident sequence frequencies and the core damage frequency (CDF) with use of the seismic hazard curve, Importance analysis using various indicators, Uncertainty analysis, Calculation of the CDF taking into account the effect of the correlations of responses and capacities of components, and Efficient sensitivity analysis by changing parameters on responses and capacities of components. These analyses require the fault tree (FT) representing the occurrence condition of the system failures and core damage, information about response and capacity of components and seismic hazard curve for the NPP site as inputs. This report presents the models and methods applied in the SECOM2 code and how to use those functions. (author)

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yee, Eric

2017-01-01

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

2016-05-01

Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

Evaluation of seismic characteristics and structural integrity for the cabinet of HANARO seismic monitoring analysis system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryu, Jeong Soo; Yoon, Doo Byung

2003-06-01

The HANARO SMAS(Seismic Monitoring Analysis System) is classified as Non-Nuclear Safety(NNS), seismic category I, and quality class T. It is required that this system can perform required functions, which are to preserve its structural integrity during and after an OBE or SSE. In this work, the structural integrity and seismic characteristics of the cabinet of the newly developed SMAS have been estimated. The most parts of the cabinet are identically designed with those of Yonggwhang and Gori Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs), unit 1 that successfully completed the required seismic qualification tests. The structure of the cabinet of the SMAS is manufactured by the manufacturer of the cabinet of Yonggwhang and Gori NPPs. To evaluate the seismic characteristics of the SMAS, the RRS(Required Response Spectra) of the newly developed cabinet are compared with those of Yonggwhang and Gori NPPs, unit 1. In addition, natural frequencies of the cabinet of HANARO, Yonggwhang, and Gori NPPs were measured for the comparison of the seismic characteristics of the installed cabinets. In case of HANARO, the bottom of the cabinet is welded to the base plate. The base plate is fixed to the concrete foundation by using anchor bolts. For the evaluation of the structural integrity of the welding parts and the anchor bolts, the maximum stresses and forces of the welding parts and the anchor bolts due to seismic loading are estimated. The analysis results show that maximum stresses and forces are less than the allowable limits. This new SMAS is operating at HANARO instrument room to acquire and analyze the signal of earthquake.

Seismic enhancement of multi-span continuous bridges subjected to three-directional excitations

Science.gov (United States)

Aryan, H.; Ghassemieh, M.

2015-04-01

Considering the seismic ground motions as the excitations in only two principal horizontal directions of the bridges and ignoring the third vertical direction is a disregard for the seismic conditions of the region and the bridge distance from epicenter. Numerous cases of substantial damages have been reported among the bridges tremendously suffered from being exposed to the simultaneous three-directional seismic ground motions. Besides the significant compression and tension damages in the columns due to the presence of vertical excitation, it could lead to unexpected shear and flexural failures in the columns and other components as well. Because the axial force variation in the columns due to three-directional excitations, could affect the demands and capacities of the bridge’s components. With respect to this issue, several studies on the bridge damages during the earthquakes have urged researchers to offer efficient methods for bridges handling of the three-directional seismic excitations. Thus, this paper presents and evaluates a superelastic based system for designing as well as retrofitting the multi-span continuous (MSC) bridges that can cope with two- and three-directional seismic excitations. Efficiency evaluation of the proposed system is conducted through various nonlinear time history analyses on a three-dimensional model of a detailed MSC bridge using a suite of developed ground motions for the bridge region. Also, all the analyses are fulfilled based on variation of one influential design characteristic of the proposed system in order to achieve the optimal design. Several pertinent assessment parameters are used during the evaluation of the proposed system. Finally, the efficiency of the new system subjected to the vertical and horizontal seismic excitations is confirmed according to reduction of the bridge responses and improvement in nonlinear performance of the columns in comparison with the as-built bridge results.

Outlines of seismic microzoning of Bucharest, Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Marmureanu, Gh.; Panza, G.F.

2002-03-01

During the last century Bucharest suffered heavy damage and casualties inflicted by the 1940 (M w =7.7) and 1977 (M w =7.4) Vrancea earthquakes. The statistics based on the historical records show that, in Vrancea, about 3 destructive subcrustal earthquakes (M w ≥7.0) occur each century. In these circumstances, the seismic microzonation of the city is an important information to be taken into account by the decision-makers in order to establish the appropriate level of preparedness to the earthquake threat. This paper discusses the state of the art of seismic microzonation studies in Bucharest. The main features concerning the seismicity in the Vrancea region, the city site conditions, the characterization of the building stock, and the codes of practice that regulate the antiseismic design are presented. (author)

Explosion-produced ground motion: technical summary with respect to seismic hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodean, Howard C [Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, University of California, Livermore, CA (United States)

1970-05-15

This paper summarizes the present technical knowledge, experimental and theoretical, of how underground nuclear explosions produce seismic motion that may be a hazard at distances measured in tens of kilometers. The effects of explosion yield and rock properties (at the explosion, along the signal propagation path, and at the site where a hazard may exist) on the ground motion are described in detail, and some consideration is given to the relation between ground motion and damage criteria. The energy released in a nuclear explosion is sufficient to vaporize the explosive and to generate an intense shock wave that is propagated outward into the surrounding rock. Part of the energy transported by the shock wave is dissipated in the shocked material. The shock wave strength decreases with distance from the center of the explosion as a consequence of this energy loss and because of geometric (approximately spherical) divergence. The dissipated energy fraction ranges from over 95% (for competent rocks like granite) to over 99% (for crushable, porous rocks like alluvium) of the explosion yield. Therefore, the energy fraction that is radiated in the form of seismic waves ranges from a few percent down to a few tenths of a percent. This is consistent with the observation that explosions in granite produce more severe ground motion than corresponding explosions in alluvium. The effects of explosion yield and rock properties on the frequency spectrum of the seismic source function are demonstrated by both experimental measurements and theoretical analysis. The characteristics of an ideal elastic medium are such that its frequency response is that of a low-pass filter, with its cutoff frequency being a function of the elastic properties of the material and the radius at which the explosion-produced stress wave becomes elastic. There is further frequency- and distance-dependent attenuation (especially of the higher frequencies) of the seismic waves, because rocks are not

Explosion-produced ground motion: technical summary with respect to seismic hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodean, Howard C.

1970-01-01

This paper summarizes the present technical knowledge, experimental and theoretical, of how underground nuclear explosions produce seismic motion that may be a hazard at distances measured in tens of kilometers. The effects of explosion yield and rock properties (at the explosion, along the signal propagation path, and at the site where a hazard may exist) on the ground motion are described in detail, and some consideration is given to the relation between ground motion and damage criteria. The energy released in a nuclear explosion is sufficient to vaporize the explosive and to generate an intense shock wave that is propagated outward into the surrounding rock. Part of the energy transported by the shock wave is dissipated in the shocked material. The shock wave strength decreases with distance from the center of the explosion as a consequence of this energy loss and because of geometric (approximately spherical) divergence. The dissipated energy fraction ranges from over 95% (for competent rocks like granite) to over 99% (for crushable, porous rocks like alluvium) of the explosion yield. Therefore, the energy fraction that is radiated in the form of seismic waves ranges from a few percent down to a few tenths of a percent. This is consistent with the observation that explosions in granite produce more severe ground motion than corresponding explosions in alluvium. The effects of explosion yield and rock properties on the frequency spectrum of the seismic source function are demonstrated by both experimental measurements and theoretical analysis. The characteristics of an ideal elastic medium are such that its frequency response is that of a low-pass filter, with its cutoff frequency being a function of the elastic properties of the material and the radius at which the explosion-produced stress wave becomes elastic. There is further frequency- and distance-dependent attenuation (especially of the higher frequencies) of the seismic waves, because rocks are not

Investigations for a change of an excavation damaged zone with time at the 250 m gallery in the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoyagi, Kazuhei; Tsusaka, Kimikazu; Kondo, Keiji; Inagaki, Daisuke; Kubota, Kenji; Tokiwa, Tetsuya

2014-01-01

The authors have been conducting seismic and resistivity tomography surveys in a gallery of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory in order to investigate an extent of an Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) along time. The objective of this paper is to discuss an influence of fracture distribution and water saturation of a rock mass on variations in seismic velocity and the value of apparent resistivity in an EDZ. Based on the result of seismic tomography survey, the extent of a layer which has low seismic velocity was about 1.0 m from the gallery wall after excavation of the tomography area. From the results of resistivity tomography survey, the value of apparent resistivity has not changed remarkably along time. To investigate a relationship between variations in seismic velocity and density of fracture in the survey area, the authors built a three dimensional fracture model around the tomography area. From the comparison of seismic velocity with density of fracture, seismic velocity decreased almost linearly as the density of fracture increased. Also, it was found that density of fracture in the layer of low seismic velocity could be estimated using a simple numeric model. >From this result, seismic tomography survey and investigation of density of fracture are suitable method for evaluation of an EDZ. (author)

Seismic design criteria and their application to major hazard plant within the United Kingdom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alderson, M.A.H.G.

1982-12-01

The nature of seismic motions and the implications are briefly described and the development of seismic design criteria for nuclear power plants in various countries is described including possible future developments. The seismicity of the United Kingdom is briefly reviewed leading to the present position on seismic design criteria for nuclear power plants within the United Kingdom. Damage from past destructive earthquakes is reviewed and the existing codes of practice and standards are described. Finally the effect of earthquakes on major hazard plant is discussed in general terms including the seismic analysis of a typical plant item. (author)

Model Solutions for Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of an Anchored Sheet Pile Quay Wall

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Habets, C.J.W.; Peters, D.J.; de Gijt, J.G.; Metrikine, A.; Jonkman, S.N.

2016-01-01

Conventional seismic designs of quay walls in ports are mostly based on pseudo-static analysis. A more advanced alternative is the Performance-Based Design (PBD) method, which evaluates permanent deformations and amounts of (repairable) damage under seismic loading. The aim of this study is to

Seismic Rehabilitation of RC Frames by Using Steel Panels

Science.gov (United States)

Mowrtage, Waiel

2008-07-01

Every major earthquake in Turkey causes a large number of building suffer moderate damage due to poor construction. If a proper and fast retrofit is not applied, the aftershocks, which may sometimes come days or weeks after the main shock, can push a moderately damaged building into a major damage or even total collapse. This paper presents a practical retrofit method for moderately damaged buildings, which increases the seismic performance of the structural system by reducing the displacement demand. Fabricated steel panels are used for the retrofit. They are light-weight, easy to handle, and can be constructed very quickly. Moreover, they are cheap, and do not need formwork or skilled workers. They can be designed to compensate for the stiffness and strength degradation, and to fit easily inside a moderately damaged reinforced concrete frame. To test the concept, a half-scale, single-story 3D reinforced concrete frame specimen was constructed at the shake-table laboratories of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University, and subjected to recorded real earthquake base accelerations. The amplitudes of base accelerations were increased until a moderate damage level is reached. Then, the damaged RC frames was retrofitted by means of steel panels and tested under the same earthquake. The seismic performance of the specimen before and after the retrofit was evaluated using FEMA356 standards, and the results were compared in terms of stiffness, strength, and deformability. The results have confirmed effectiveness of the proposed retrofit scheme.

Seismic Rehabilitation of RC Frames by Using Steel Panels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mowrtage, Waiel

2008-01-01

Every major earthquake in Turkey causes a large number of building suffer moderate damage due to poor construction. If a proper and fast retrofit is not applied, the aftershocks, which may sometimes come days or weeks after the main shock, can push a moderately damaged building into a major damage or even total collapse. This paper presents a practical retrofit method for moderately damaged buildings, which increases the seismic performance of the structural system by reducing the displacement demand. Fabricated steel panels are used for the retrofit. They are light-weight, easy to handle, and can be constructed very quickly. Moreover, they are cheap, and do not need formwork or skilled workers. They can be designed to compensate for the stiffness and strength degradation, and to fit easily inside a moderately damaged reinforced concrete frame.To test the concept, a half-scale, single-story 3D reinforced concrete frame specimen was constructed at the shake-table laboratories of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University, and subjected to recorded real earthquake base accelerations. The amplitudes of base accelerations were increased until a moderate damage level is reached. Then, the damaged RC frames was retrofitted by means of steel panels and tested under the same earthquake. The seismic performance of the specimen before and after the retrofit was evaluated using FEMA356 standards, and the results were compared in terms of stiffness, strength, and deformability. The results have confirmed effectiveness of the proposed retrofit scheme

Multi-functional smart aggregate-based structural health monitoring of circular reinforced concrete columns subjected to seismic excitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, Haichang; Song, Gangbing; Moslehy, Yashar; Mo, Y L; Sanders, David

2010-01-01

In this paper, a recently developed multi-functional piezoceramic-based device, named the smart aggregate, is used for the health monitoring of concrete columns subjected to shake table excitations. Two circular reinforced concrete columns instrumented with smart aggregates were fabricated and tested with a recorded seismic excitation at the structural laboratory at the University of Nevada—Reno. In the tests, the smart aggregates were used to perform multiple monitoring functions that included dynamic seismic response detection, structural health monitoring and white noise response detection. In the proposed health monitoring approach, a damage index was developed on the basis of the comparison of the transfer function with the baseline function obtained in the healthy state. A sensor-history damage index matrix is developed to monitor the damage evolution process. Experimental results showed that the acceleration level can be evaluated from the amplitude of the dynamic seismic response; the damage statuses at different locations were evaluated using a damage index matrix; the first modal frequency obtained from the white noise response decreased with increase of the damage severity. The proposed multi-functional smart aggregates have great potential for use in the structural health monitoring of large-scale concrete structures

A preliminary census of engineering activities located in Sicily (Southern Italy) which may "potentially" induce seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Aloisi, Marco; Briffa, Emanuela; Cannata, Andrea; Cannavò, Flavio; Gambino, Salvatore; Maiolino, Vincenza; Maugeri, Roberto; Palano, Mimmo; Privitera, Eugenio; Scaltrito, Antonio; Spampinato, Salvatore; Ursino, Andrea; Velardita, Rosanna

2015-04-01

The seismic events caused by human engineering activities are commonly termed as "triggered" and "induced". This class of earthquakes, though characterized by low-to-moderate magnitude, have significant social and economical implications since they occur close to the engineering activity responsible for triggering/inducing them and can be felt by the inhabitants living nearby, and may even produce damage. One of the first well-documented examples of induced seismicity was observed in 1932 in Algeria, when a shallow magnitude 3.0 earthquake occurred close to the Oued Fodda Dam. By the continuous global improvement of seismic monitoring networks, numerous other examples of human-induced earthquakes have been identified. Induced earthquakes occur at shallow depths and are related to a number of human activities, such as fluid injection under high pressure (e.g. waste-water disposal in deep wells, hydrofracturing activities in enhanced geothermal systems and oil recovery, shale-gas fracking, natural and CO2 gas storage), hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater extraction, deep underground mining, large water impoundments and underground nuclear tests. In Italy, induced/triggered seismicity is suspected to have contributed to the disaster of the Vajont dam in 1963. Despite this suspected case and the presence in the Italian territory of a large amount of engineering activities "capable" of inducing seismicity, no extensive researches on this topic have been conducted to date. Hence, in order to improve knowledge and correctly assess the potential hazard at a specific location in the future, here we started a preliminary study on the entire range of engineering activities currently located in Sicily (Southern Italy) which may "potentially" induce seismicity. To this end, we performed: • a preliminary census of all engineering activities located in the study area by collecting all the useful information coming from available on-line catalogues; • a detailed compilation

A proposal for seismic evaluation index of mid-rise existing RC buildings in Afghanistan

Science.gov (United States)

Naqi, Ahmad; Saito, Taiki

2017-10-01

Mid-rise RC buildings gradually rise in Kabul and entire Afghanistan since 2001 due to rapid increase of population. To protect the safety of resident, Afghan Structure Code was issued in 2012. But the building constructed before 2012 failed to conform the code requirements. In Japan, new sets of rules and law for seismic design of buildings had been issued in 1981 and severe earthquake damage was disclosed for the buildings designed before 1981. Hence, the Standard for Seismic Evaluation of RC Building published in 1977 has been widely used in Japan to evaluate the seismic capacity of existing buildings designed before 1981. Currently similar problem existed in Afghanistan, therefore, this research examined the seismic capacity of six RC buildings which were built before 2012 in Kabul by applying the seismic screening procedure presented by Japanese standard. Among three screening procedures with different capability, the less detailed screening procedure, the first level of screening, is applied. The study founds an average seismic index (IS-average=0.21) of target buildings. Then, the results were compared with those of more accurate seismic evaluation procedures of Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) and Time History Analysis (THA). The results for CSM and THA show poor seismic performance of target buildings not able to satisfy the safety design limit (1/100) of the maximum story drift. The target buildings are then improved by installing RC shear walls. The seismic indices of these retrofitted buildings were recalculated and the maximum story drifts were analyzed by CSM and THA. The seismic indices and CSM and THA results are compared and found that building with seismic index larger than (IS-average =0.4) are able to satisfy the safety design limit. Finally, to screen and minimize the earthquake damage over the existing buildings, the judgement seismic index (IS-Judgment=0.5) for the first level of screening is proposed.

Seismic PSA method for multiple nuclear power plants in a site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hakata, Tadakuni [Nuclear Safety Commission, Tokyo (Japan)

2007-07-15

The maximum number of nuclear power plants in a site is eight and about 50% of power plants are built in sites with three or more plants in the world. Such nuclear sites have potential risks of simultaneous multiple plant damages especially at external events. Seismic probabilistic safety assessment method (Level-1 PSA) for multi-unit sites with up to 9 units has been developed. The models include Fault-tree linked Monte Carlo computation, taking into consideration multivariate correlations of components and systems from partial to complete, inside and across units. The models were programmed as a computer program CORAL reef. Sample analysis and sensitivity studies were performed to verify the models and algorithms and to understand some of risk insights and risk metrics, such as site core damage frequency (CDF per site-year) for multiple reactor plants. This study will contribute to realistic state of art seismic PSA, taking consideration of multiple reactor power plants, and to enhancement of seismic safety. (author)

Effectiveness of two conventional methods for seismic retrofit of steel and RC moment resisting frames based on damage control criteria

Science.gov (United States)

Beheshti Aval, Seyed Bahram; Kouhestani, Hamed Sadegh; Mottaghi, Lida

2017-07-01

This study investigates the efficiency of two types of rehabilitation methods based on economic justification that can lead to logical decision making between the retrofitting schemes. Among various rehabilitation methods, concentric chevron bracing (CCB) and cylindrical friction damper (CFD) were selected. The performance assessment procedure of the frames is divided into two distinct phases. First, the limit state probabilities of the structures before and after rehabilitation are investigated. In the second phase, the seismic risk of structures in terms of life safety and financial losses (decision variables) using the recently published FEMA P58 methodology is evaluated. The results show that the proposed retrofitting methods improve the serviceability and life safety performance levels of steel and RC structures at different rates when subjected to earthquake loads. Moreover, these procedures reveal that financial losses are greatly decreased, and were more tangible by the application of CFD rather than using CCB. Although using both retrofitting methods reduced damage state probabilities, incorporation of a site-specific seismic hazard curve to evaluate mean annual occurrence frequency at the collapse prevention limit state caused unexpected results to be obtained. Contrary to CFD, the collapse probability of the structures retrofitted with CCB increased when compared with the primary structures.

Methodology of seismotectonic zoning in an intraplate low seismicity domain. Examples of France surrounding areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Philip, H.; Grellet, B.; Combes, P.; Haessler, H.

1991-01-01

Until now, the dominant factor in seismic hazard assessments has been historical seismicity. This approach is justified if the data derived from historical seismicity in a region are representative of its seismic activity and if we consider that in areas where damaging earthquakes have happened, they may happen again. This can be seen when seismotectonic relationships are well established in areas such as well localised plate boundaries (subduction zones, transform faults) and/or with a high rate of deformation. In these cases, the areas where future earthquakes might occur are usually well determined and the recurrences short enough on the time scale of historical observations. However, in areas where recent tectonic deformations are diffused and moderate, the historical period of seismicity data (a few centuries) is not long enough to observe a sample of historical seismicity representative of the present-day tectonic activity of the area. The studies on the most recent damaging earthquakes (El Asnam 1980, Spitak 1988, Cherchell Tipasa 1989) show that it would have been extremely difficult to predict the magnitude and the localisation of these events considering historical seismicity alone. It is the same in Provence (south of France) where the risk of occurrence of a damaging earthquake would have been underestimated before the June 1909 event. In all these cases, seismotectonic studies 'a posteriori' show that the geometry and kinematic of the faults responsible for these earthquakes can be identified and that all of them have presented seismic activity in the last thousand years. So it is necessary to emphasis a global approach of the problem through specific studies such as neotectonics, teledetection, geodesy, present-day stress field, strain field, paleoseismology etc. These studies will enlarge the period of observation compared with the data derived only from historical and present-day seismicity. In France seismicity is moderate and recent tectonic

Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

Science.gov (United States)

Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

1982-01-01

The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

Earthquake damage to underground facilities and earthquake related displacement fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pratt, H.R.; Stephenson, D.E.; Zandt, G.; Bouchon, M.; Hustrulid, W.A.

1982-01-01

The potential seismic risk for an underground facility is considered in the evaluation of its location and design. The possible damage resulting from either large-scale displacements or high accelerations should be considered in evaluating potential sites of underground facilities. Scattered through the available literature are statements to the effect that below a few hundred meters shaking and damage in mines is less than at the surface; however, data for decreased damage underground have not been completely reported or explained. In order to assess the seismic risk for an underground facility, a data base was established and analyzed to evaluate the potential for seismic disturbance. Substantial damage to underground facilities is usually the result of displacements primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures, or at the surface entrance to these facilities. Evidence of this comes from both earthquakes as a function of depth is important in the evaluation of the hazard to underground facilities. To evaluate potential displacements due to seismic effects of block motions along pre-existing or induced fractures, the displacement fields surrounding two types of faults were investigated. Analytical models were used to determine relative displacements of shafts and near-surface displacement of large rock masses. Numerical methods were used to determine the displacement fields associated with pure strike-slip and vertical normal faults. Results are presented as displacements for various fault lengths as a function of depth and distance. This provides input to determine potential displacements in terms of depth and distance for underground facilities, important for assessing potential sites and design parameters

Input for seismic hazard assessment using Vrancea seismic source region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivan, Iren-Adelina; Enescu, B.D.; Pantea, A.

1998-01-01

We use an extended and combined data base including historical and modern, qualitative and quantitative data, i.e., more than 25 events during the period 1790 - 1990 with epicentral/maximum intensities ranging from X to V degree (MSK scale), the variation interval of isoseismal curves ranging from IX th to III rd degree. The data set was analysed using both the sum phasor techniques of Ridelek and Sacks (1984) for different magnitudes and depth intervals and the Stepp's method. For the assessment of seismic hazard we need a pattern of seismic source regions including an estimation for the maximum expected magnitude and the return period for the studied regions. Another necessary step in seismic hazard assessment is to develop attenuation relationships specific to a seismogenic zone, particularly to sub-crustal earthquakes of Vrancea region. The conceptual frame involves the use of appropriate decay models and consideration of the randomness in the attenuation, taking into account the azimuthal variation of the isoseist shapes. (authors)

Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

2009-01-01

Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

Martian seismicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goins, N.R.; Lazarewicz, A.R.

1979-01-01

During the Viking mission to Mars, the seismometer on Lander II collected approximately 0.24 Earth years of observations data, excluding periods of time dominated by wind-induced Lander vibration. The ''quiet-time'' data set contains no confirmed seismic events. A proper assessment of the significance of this fact requires quantitative estimates of the expected detection rate of the Viking seismometer. The first step is to calculate the minimum magnitude event detectable at a given distance, including the effects of geometric spreading, anelastic attenuation, seismic signal duration, seismometer frequency response, and possible poor ground coupling. Assuming various numerical quantities and a Martian seismic activity comparable to that of intraplate earthquakes, the appropriate integral gives an expected annual detection rate of 10 events, nearly all of which are local. Thus only two to three events would be expected in the observational period presently on hand and the lack of observed events is not in gross contradiction to reasonable expectations. Given the same assumptions, a seismometer 20 times more sensitive than the present instrument would be expected to detect about 120 events annually

Fretting fatigue life estimation using fatigue damage gradient correction factor in various contact configurations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Dong Hyeon; Cho, Sung-San [Hongik University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

A fretting fatigue life estimation method that takes into account the stress gradient effect was developed by the authors [Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 28 (2014) 2153-2159]. In the developed method, fatigue damage value at the cracking location is corrected with fatigue damage gradient and the corrected value is compared directly with the plain fatigue data for life estimation. In other words, the correction factor is the ratio of plain fatigue damage to fretting fatigue damage at the same life and a function of fatigue damage gradient. Since reliability of the method was verified only for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration in the previous study, the present study extends application of the method to flat-on-flat contact configurations by developing the correction factor for both the contact configuration. Fretting fatigue experiments were conducted to obtain fatigue life data for various fretting pads. Finite element analyses were conducted to evaluate the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) fatigue damage parameter in the cracking region. It is revealed that the SWT parameter in fat-on-flat contact configuration decreases exponentially away from the surface as in cylinder-on-flat contact configuration, and thus the SWT gradient at the surface can be evaluated reliably. Moreover, it is found that decrease in the SWT parameter around the cracking location can be expressed by piecewise exponential curves. If the gradient of SWT at the surface is used as a representative value of SWT gradient, it is impossible to establish functional relationship between the SWT gradient and the correction factor for both the contact configurations although it was possible for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration. However, if weighted average of the SWT gradient values obtained from each exponential curve in the piecewise exponential curve is used as a representative value, the correction factor for both the contact configurations becomes a function of the SWT gradient

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

2008-01-01

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

2008-07-01

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004).

Development of Vertical Cable Seismic System for Hydrothermal Deposit Survey (2) - Feasibility Study

Science.gov (United States)

Asakawa, E.; Murakami, F.; Sekino, Y.; Okamoto, T.; Mikada, H.; Takekawa, J.; Shimura, T.

2010-12-01

In 2009, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) started the survey system development for Hydrothermal deposit. We proposed the Vertical Cable Seismic (VCS), the reflection seismic survey with vertical cable above seabottom. VCS has the following advantages for hydrothermal deposit survey. . (1) VCS is an effective high-resolution 3D seismic survey within limited area. (2) It achieves high-resolution image because the sensors are closely located to the target. (3) It avoids the coupling problems between sensor and seabottom that cause serious damage of seismic data quality. (4) Various types of marine source are applicable with VCS such as sea-surface source (air gun, water gun etc.) , deep-towed or ocean bottom sources. (5) Autonomous recording system. Our first experiment of 2D/3D VCS surveys has been carried out in Lake Biwa, JAPAN. in November 2009. The 2D VCS data processing follows the walk-away VSP, including wave field separation and depth migration. The result gives clearer image than the conventional surface seismic. Prestack depth migration is applied to 3D data to obtain good quality 3D depth volume. Uncertainty of the source/receiver poisons in water causes the serious problem of the imaging. We used several transducer/transponder to estimate these positions. The VCS seismic records themselves can also provide sensor position using the first break of each trace and we calibrate the positions. We are currently developing the autonomous recording VCS system and planning the trial experiment in actual ocean to establish the way of deployment/recovery and the examine the position through the current flow in November, 2010. The second VCS survey will planned over the actual hydrothermal deposit with deep-towed source in February, 2011.

Seismic fragility analysis of a CANDU containment structure for near-fault ground motions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, In Kil; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon; Ahn, Seong Moon

2005-01-01

The R. G. 1.60 spectrum used for the seismic design of Korean nuclear power plants provides a generally conservative design basis due to its broadband nature. A survey on some of the Quaternary fault segments near Korean nuclear power plants is ongoing. It is likely that these faults will be identified as active ones. If the faults are confirmed as active ones, it will be necessary to reevaluate the seismic safety of the nuclear power plants located near these faults. The probability based scenario earthquakes were identified as near-field earthquakes. In general, the near-fault ground motion records exhibit a distinctive long period pulse like time history with very high peak velocities. These features are induced by the slip of the earthquake fault. Near-fault ground motions, which have caused much of the damage in recent major earthquakes, can be characterized by a pulse-like motion that exposes the structure to a high input energy at the beginning of the motion. It is necessary to estimate the near-fault ground motion effects on the nuclear power plant structures and components located near the faults. In this study, the seismic fragility analysis of a CANDU containment structure was performed based on the results of nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

So, Emily; Spence, Robin

2013-01-01

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

Antarctic ice sheet thickness estimation using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method with single-station seismic ambient noise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Yan

2018-03-01

Full Text Available We report on a successful application of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (H / V method, generally used to investigate the subsurface velocity structures of the shallow crust, to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet thickness for the first time. Using three-component, five-day long, seismic ambient noise records gathered from more than 60 temporary seismic stations located on the Antarctic ice sheet, the ice thickness measured at each station has comparable accuracy to the Bedmap2 database. Preliminary analysis revealed that 60 out of 65 seismic stations on the ice sheet obtained clear peak frequencies (f0 related to the ice sheet thickness in the H / V spectrum. Thus, assuming that the isotropic ice layer lies atop a high velocity half-space bedrock, the ice sheet thickness can be calculated by a simple approximation formula. About half of the calculated ice sheet thicknesses were consistent with the Bedmap2 ice thickness values. To further improve the reliability of ice thickness measurements, two-type models were built to fit the observed H / V spectrum through non-linear inversion. The two-type models represent the isotropic structures of single- and two-layer ice sheets, and the latter depicts the non-uniform, layered characteristics of the ice sheet widely distributed in Antarctica. The inversion results suggest that the ice thicknesses derived from the two-layer ice models were in good concurrence with the Bedmap2 ice thickness database, and that ice thickness differences between the two were within 300 m at almost all stations. Our results support previous finding that the Antarctic ice sheet is stratified. Extensive data processing indicates that the time length of seismic ambient noise records can be shortened to two hours for reliable ice sheet thickness estimation using the H / V method. This study extends the application fields of the H / V method and provides an effective and independent way to measure

Seismic fragility analysis of buried steel piping at P, L, and K reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wingo, H.E.

1989-10-01

Analysis of seismic strength of buried cooling water piping in reactor areas is necessary to evaluate the risk of reactor operation because seismic events could damage these buried pipes and cause loss of coolant accidents. This report documents analysis of the ability of this piping to withstand the combined effects of the propagation of seismic waves, the possibility that the piping may not behave in a completely ductile fashion, and the distortions caused by relative displacements of structures connected to the piping

Seismic isolation retrofitting of the Salt Lake City and County Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, J.; Allen, E.

1989-01-01

The City and County Building, a massive unreinforced masonry structure completed in 1894, has been seismically retrofitted using base isolation. The isolation system consists of 443 lead-rubber isolators installed underneath the building on top of existing spread footings. The building is isolated from the surrounding ground by a perimeter moat wall, permitting lateral movement to take place during an earthquake. It is believed that this is the first historic structure in the world to be retrofitted against possible seismic damage using base isolation. Lessons learned in this design effort are potentially applicable to seismic base isolation for nuclear power plants

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-01-28

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO₂ injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO₂ injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO₂ storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO₂-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay Region; part III

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.; Roth, Edward F.

1977-01-01

Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for estimating the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. In the current program seismic velocities have been measured at 59 locations 1n the San Francisco Bay Region. This report is the third in a series of Open-File Reports and describes the in-situ velocity measurements at locations 35-59. At each location seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill cuttings, undisturbed (cored) samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the sites. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. There is a variety of geologic and seismic data available in the San Francisco Bay Region for use 1n developing the general zoning techniques which can then be applied to other areas. Shear wave velocities 1n near-surface geologic materials are of especial interest for engineering seismology and seismic zonation studies, yet in general, they are difficult to measure because of contamination by compressional waves. A comparison of various in-situ techniques by Warrick (1974) establishes the reliability of the method utilizing a "horizontal traction" source for sites underlain by bay mud and alluvium. Gibbs, and others (1975a) present data from 12 holes and establishes the reliability of the method for sites underlain by a variety of different rock units and suggest extending the measurements to

A NOVEL APPROACH TO SUPPORT MAJORITY VOTING IN SPATIAL GROUP MCDM USING DENSITY INDUCED OWA OPERATOR FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Moradi

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other’s opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts’ opinions.

a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

2014-10-01

Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

Seismic characterization of the Chelyabinsk meteor's terminal explosion

Science.gov (United States)

González, Álvaro; Heimann, Sebastian; Wang, Rongjiang; Cesca, Simone; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

On February 15th, 2013, an exceptionally large meteor in the region of Chelyabinsk, Russia, produced a powerful shock wave which caused unprecedented damage to people and property, the strongest atmospheric infrasound signal ever recorded, and remarkable ground motion. Here we describe and model the resulting Rayleigh waves, recorded at broadband seismic stations at distances from ~230 to ~4,100 km. Our full-waveform modeling uses a seismogram simulation code specifically tailored to consider wave propagation in the atmosphere and solid Earth, and the coupling at the interface between them. An isotropic point-like airburst reproduces very well the available seismic observations, without requiring a more complex explanation, such as a moving source. The measured seismic shaking was generated by direct coupling of the atmospheric shock wave to the ground, and then it propagated outwards faster than the atmospheric shock wave itself, at up to 3.9 km/s. The best-fitting airburst location (61.22° E, 54.88° N) is SW of Chelyabinsk city, exactly at the terminal part of the meteor's trajectory, just after it experienced a dramatic flare, with apparent brightness larger than the Sun's. We estimated the meteor's ground path from published trajectory data, eyewitness observations, and detailed satellite imagery of the exact location where a major meteorite fragment landed, in the frozen Lake Chebarkul (60.32074° E, 54.95966° N). Fixing the source origin time allowed us calculating that the explosion took place in the stratosphere, at an altitude of 22.5 ± 1.5 km. This value is lower than the reported altitude of peak brightness (about 29.5 km), but more consistent with the observations of shock wave travel times. Such results highlight the importance of terminal energy release down to lower altitude. We analyzed a surveillance video recorded inside a factory (61.347° E, 54.902° N) at Korkino, a locality close to the airburst. It shows a time delay of 87.5 seconds

Seismic Level 2 PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dirksen, Gerben; Pellissetti, Manuel; Duncan-Whiteman, Paul

2014-01-01

For most external events, the calculation of the core damage frequency (CDF) in Level 1 PSA is sufficient to be able to show that the contribution of the event to the plant risk is negligible. However, it is not sufficient to compare the CDF due to the external event to the total plant CDF; instead the Level 1 PSA result for the event should be compared to the large early release frequency (LERF), or alternatively arguments should be given why the CDF from the external event will not contribute mostly to LERF. For seismic events in particular, it can often not be easily excluded that sequences leading to core damage would not also result in LERF. Since the confinement function is one of the most essential functions for Level 2 PSA, special care must be taken of the containment penetrations. For example systems with containment penetrations that are normally closed during operation or are designed to withstand more than the maximum containment pressure are normally screened out in the Level 2 PSA for the containment isolation function, however the possibility of LOCA in such systems due to an earthquake may nevertheless lead to containment bypass. Additionally, the functionality of passive features may be compromised in case of a beyond design earthquake. In the present paper, we present crucial ingredients of a methodology for a Level 2 seismic PSA. This methodology consists of the following steps: Extension of the seismic equipment list (SEL) to include Level 2 PSA relevant systems (e.g. containment isolation system, features for core melt stabilization, hydrogen mitigation systems), Determination of the systems within the existing SEL with increased demands in case of severe accidents, Determination of essential components for which a dedicated fragility analysis needs to be performed. (author)

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

Science.gov (United States)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Mohindra

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

Instrumentation qualification. Seismic qualification of C-E instrumentation equipment. Part One

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-05-01

A summary of the C-E seismic qualification program utilized to demonstrate the seismic design adequacy of the instrumentation and control equipment used in C-E supplied Nuclear Steam Supply Systems (NSSS) is presented. The report is divided into two parts. Part One includes the equipment seismic requirements and a description of the qualification methods. Part Two lists the specific equipment by nuclear station in which it is used and the equipment test results are summarized in a standard data sheet format to facilitate review. The seismic requirements are based on individual contract commitments with C-E customers and the NRC Standard Review Plan, Section 3.10 ''Seismic Qualification of Category I Instrumentation and Electrical Equipment.'' Equipment is qualified for use in a seismic environment where damage potential to the equipment is less than or equal to that simulated seismic environment to which it has been qualified. The anticipated Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) environment at the inservice location of equipment should be confirmed by each applicant as not exceeding that to which it is qualified

Seismic fragility curves of bridge piers accounting for ground motions in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Duy-Duan; Lee, Tae-Hyung

2018-04-01

Korea is located in a slight-to-moderate seismic zone. Nevertheless, several studies pointed that the peak earthquake magnitude in the region can be reached to approximately 6.5. Accordingly, a seismic vulnerability evaluation of the existing structures accounting for ground motions in Korea is momentous. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for bridge piers of a steel box girder bridge equipped with and without base isolators based on a set of ground motions recorded in Korea. A finite element simulation platform, OpenSees, is utilized to perform nonlinear time history analyses of the bridges. A series of damage states is defined based on a damage index which is expressed in terms of the column displacement ductility ratio. The fragility curves based on Korean motions were thereafter compared with the fragility curves generated using worldwide earthquakes to assess the effect of the two ground motion groups on the seismic fragility curves of the bridge piers. The results reveal that both non- and base-isolated bridge piers are less vulnerable during the Korean ground motions than that under worldwide earthquakes.

DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING SUBHASISH MOHANTY*, ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, JOHN N. RAJADAS, AND CLYDE...

Model Solutions for Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of an Anchored Sheet Pile Quay Wall

OpenAIRE

C. J. W. Habets; D. J. Peters; J. G. de Gijt; A. V. Metrikine; S. N. Jonkman

2016-01-01

Conventional seismic designs of quay walls in ports are mostly based on pseudo-static analysis. A more advanced alternative is the Performance-Based Design (PBD) method, which evaluates permanent deformations and amounts of (repairable) damage under seismic loading. The aim of this study is to investigate the suitability of this method for anchored sheet pile quay walls that were not purposely designed for seismic loads. A research methodology is developed in which pseudo-static, permanent-di...

Romanian Data Center: A modern way for seismic monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Neagoe, Cristian; Marius Manea, Liviu; Ionescu, Constantin

2014-05-01

The main seismic survey of Romania is performed by the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) which operates a real-time digital seismic network. The NIEP real-time network currently consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Mark l4c, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor Kinemetrics). The data are transmitted at the National Data Center (NDC) and Eforie Nord (EFOR) Seismic Observatory. EFOR is the back-up for the NDC and also a monitoring center for the Black Sea tsunami events. NIEP is a data acquisition node for the seismic network of Moldova (FDSN code MD) composed of five seismic stations. NIEP has installed in the northern part of Bulgaria eight seismic stations equipped with broadband sensors and Episensors and nine accelerometers (Episensors) installed in nine districts along the Danube River. All the data are acquired at NIEP for Early Warning System and for primary estimation of the earthquake parameters. The real-time acquisition (RT) and data exchange is done by Antelope software and Seedlink (from Seiscomp3). The real-time data communication is ensured by different types of transmission: GPRS, satellite, radio, Internet and a dedicated line provided by a governmental network. For data processing and analysis at the two data centers Antelope 5.2 TM is being used running on 3 workstations: one from a CentOS platform and two on MacOS. Also a Seiscomp3 server stands as back-up for Antelope 5.2 Both acquisition and analysis of seismic data systems produce information about local and global parameters of earthquakes. In addition, Antelope is used for manual processing (event association, calculation of magnitude, creating a database, sending seismic bulletins, calculation of PGA and PGV, etc.), generating

SEISMIC FRAGILITY ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED RC FRAMES USING DIFFERENT TYPES OF BRACING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HAMED HAMIDI JAMNANI

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Application of bracings to increase the lateral stiffness of building structures is a technique of seismic improvement that engineers frequently have recourse to. Accordingly, investigating the role of bracings in concrete structures along with the development of seismic fragility curves are of overriding concern to civil engineers. In this research, an ordinary RC building, designed according to the 1st edition of Iranian seismic code, was selected for examination. According to FEMA 356 code, this building is considered to be vulnerable. To improve the seismic performance of this building, 3 different types of bracings, which are Concentrically Braced Frames, Eccentrically Braced Frames and Buckling Restrained Frames were employed, and each bracing element was distributed in 3 different locations in the building. The researchers developed fragility curves and utilized 30 earthquake records on the Peak Ground Acceleration seismic intensity scale to carry out a time history analysis. Tow damage scale, including Inter-Story Drifts and Plastic Axial Deformation were also used. The numerical results obtained from this investigation confirm that Plastic Axial Deformation is more reliable than conventional approaches in developing fragility curves for retrofitted frames. In lieu of what is proposed, the researchers selected the suitable damage scale and developed and compared log-normal distribution of fragility curves first for the original and then for the retrofitted building.

Seismic microzoning projects and their implementation in Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, M.; Cano, V.; Olbrich, F.; Vallee, M.; Morales, C.; Arreaza, A.; Mendes, K.; Klarica, S.; Alvarez Gomez, J.; Aray, J.; Vielma, J.; Pombo, A.; Diaz, J.; Grupo de trabajo

2013-05-01

Site effects have been recognized to play an important role in damage distribution of destructive earthquakes. These effects have been observed in Venezuela especially during the 1967 Caracas earthquake, when 4 buildings with 10 and more storeys during the Caracas 1967 earthquake collapsed, and a big number of them in the same deep sediment area have been seriously damaged. This motivated the development of studies regarding the subsurface configuration of Caracas and Barquisimeto during the last decade, with a seismic microzoning project realized in both cities from 2005 to 2009. The main results of this project were the development of design response spectra for the different microzones within the sedimentary basin, as well as estimates of landslide hazard. Implementation of the results in municipality ordinances is actually discussed with local authorities. They are aimed to address mitigation for new constructions by the application of the specific design spectra, for existing buildings via evaluation and retrofitting strategies, and for slope areas (informal, as well as formal developments) due to the identification of areas that may not be developed or require detailed studies of slope stabilities. Since then, seismic microzoning studies were started in Cumaná, Guarenas/Guatire and Lara state, and within a broader context of integrated risk management, which includes flooding, landslide and technological risks, in Mérida, Valencia, Maracay, Barcelona/Puerto La Cruz and Valle de la Pascua. The projects are coordinated by the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research (FUNVISIS) in cooperation with local universities. Efforts are done to unable local researchers to apply the methodologies in other cities as Valera, Trujillo, Boconó, San Cristóbal and Tucacas. A unified seismic hazard map as input motion to these studies is actually in development. Depending on the local characteristics, building inventory and vulnerability analysis are done for risk

Man-caused seismicity of Kuzbass

Science.gov (United States)

Emanov, Alexandr; Emanov, Alexey; Leskova, Ekaterina; Fateyev, Alexandr

2010-05-01

A natural seismicity of Kuznetsk Basin is confined in the main to mountain frame of Kuznetsk hollow. In this paper materials of experimental work with local station networks within sediment basin are presented. Two types of seismicity display within Kuznetsk hollow have been understood: first, man-caused seismic processes, confined to mine working and concentrated on depths up to one and a half of km; secondly, seismic activations on depths of 2-56 km, not coordinated in plan with coal mines. Every of studied seismic activations consists of large quantity of earthquakes of small powers (Ms=1-3). From one to first tens of earthquakes were recorded in a day. The earthquakes near mine working shift in space along with mine working, and seismic process become stronger at the instant a coal-plough machine is operated, and slacken at the instant the preventive works are executed. The seismic processes near three lavas in Kuznetsk Basin have been studied in detail. Uplift is the most typical focal mechanism. Activated zone near mine working reach in diameter 1-1,5 km. Seismic activations not linked with mine working testify that the subsoil of Kuznetsk hollow remain in stress state in whole. The most probable causes of man-caused action on hollow are processes, coupled with change of physical state of rocks at loss of methane from large volume or change by mine working of rock watering in large volume. In this case condensed rocks, lost gas and water, can press out upwards, realizing the reverse fault mechanism of earthquakes. A combination of stress state of hollow with man-caused action at deep mining may account for incipient activations in Kuznetsk Basin. Today earthquakes happen mainly under mine workings, though damages of workings themselves do not happen, but intensive shaking on surface calls for intent study of so dangerous phenomena. In 2009 replicates of the experiment on research of seismic activations in area of before investigated lavas have been conducted

Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

Science.gov (United States)

Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

2018-01-01

Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

Phase 1 report: the 4D seismic market from 2000 to 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagary, C.

2004-01-01

This report synthesizes the phase 1 results of the joint industrial project, called ''4D Seismic: Technologies, Economics and Issues''. This project was conducted by IFP between November 2003 and April 2004, in collaboration with Compagnie Generale de Geophysique (CGG) and sponsored by Gaz de France and 4. Wave Imaging. Phase 1 offers an objective view of the 4D seismic market over the period 2000-2003. The market has been assessed from IFP extensive databases, gathering 115 4D projects conducted worldwide and from interviews of seven oil companies, both representing 90% of the activity in time-lapse seismic. This study provides sales estimation and sales/projects breakdown by: in-house/subcontracted activity, geography, onshore/offshore, reservoir rocks and recovery methods, technology/methodology, oil companies and service companies. The market of 4D seismic has been split into 4 segments: acquisition, processing, reservoir studies - feasibility, interpretation and seismic history matching -, borehole seismic (acquisition and processing). In addition, the market of passive seismic monitoring, another technique of seismic reservoir monitoring has also been estimated. The main sources, used to build the IFP databases, were: Worldwide Global E and P Service Reports from IHS Energy, World Geophysical News, an extensive bibliographic study through more than 200 articles, abstracts and summaries, a collaboration with CGG. For all market estimations, numbers computed from IFP databases and from interviews of oil companies were extrapolated from 90% to 100%, to quantify the total 4D activity. The estimations obtained were not rounded in order to preserve trends with a consistent computation from one year to another and from one market segment to another, despite uncertainties of about 10%. Quality controls were performed to validate the final estimations: volumes of 4D seismic data, computed from IFP databases, were checked by comparing processed data with acquired data

Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

2013-01-01

Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels